Sample records for warmer drier climate

  1. A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire.

    PubMed

    Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J

    2017-12-01

    Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.

  2. Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

    PubMed

    Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2017-01-01

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH 4 . It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH 4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH 4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH 4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH 4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH 4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH 4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH 4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH 4

  3. Managing fire and fuels in a warmer climate

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson

    2010-01-01

    This historical perspective on fire provides a window into the future of fire in the Pacific Northwest. Although fire will always be more common in the interior portion of the region, a warmer climate could bring more fire to the westside of the Cascade Range where summers are typically dry and will probably become drier. If future climate resembles the climate now...

  4. Researchers consider U.S. Southwest's response to warmer, drier conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Kevin M.; Webb, Robert H.

    In 2000, the popular press frequently referred to reports that the southwestern United States might experience a shift from relatively wet to dry conditions during the next couple of decades (see http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/discover/PDO.html). These predictions stemmed from observations that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) appeared to abruptly change from a “positive” to a “negative” phase in 1999 (Figure 1). During the mid-twentieth century, a similar negative phase of the PDO was accompanied by prolonged dry conditions in the southwest.By extrapolation, some climatologists predicted future drought in the southwest. Such a change would heavily affect land use planning in the region, because national demographics have stressed the region's resources over the past century From 1990 to 2000, for instance, the population of Nevada and Arizona increased by almost 2.3 million people (http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/respop.html). To discuss potential scenarios of landscape and ecosystem response to 25 years of hot and dry climate, scientists from diverse disciplines gathered at the University of Arizona in April 2001. The objectives of this workshop were to address evidence supporting predictions of warmer and drier climate and the possible landscape responses (http://geology.wr.usgs.gov/sw-workshop/).

  5. Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, D.; Chandler, M.

    1991-01-01

    The impact of an increased ocean heat transport on climate is investigated in the framework of the GISS GMC model described by Hansen et al. (1983), using two scenarios: one starting from warmer polar temperatures/no sea ice and the other from the current ocean conditions. A 20-percent increase in cross-equatorial heat transport was sufficient to melt all sea ice; it resulted in a climate that was 2 C warmer for the global average, with values some 20-deg warmer at high altitudes and 1-deg warmer near the equator. It is suggested that the hydrological and dynamical changes associated with this different climate regime may be self-sustaining and, as such, would account for the high-latitude warmth of climates in the Mesozoic and Tertiary periods and the decadenal-scale climate fluctuations during the Holocene.

  6. Baldcypress swamp management and climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    In the future, climates may become warmer and drier in the southeastern United States; as a result, the range of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps may shrink. Managers of baldcypress swamps at the southern edge of the range may face special challenges in attempting to preserve these swamp habitats in the future if climates become warmer and drier.

  7. Future summer mega-heatwave and record-breaking temperatures in a warmer France climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bador, Margot; Terray, Laurent; Boé, Julien; Somot, Samuel; Alias, Antoinette; Gibelin, Anne-Laure; Dubuisson, Brigitte

    2017-07-01

    This study focuses on future very hot summers associated with severe heatwaves and record-breaking temperatures in France. Daily temperature observations and a pair of historical and scenario (greenhouse gas radiative concentration pathway 8.5) simulations with the high-resolution (∼12.5 km) ALADIN regional climate model provide a robust framework to examine the spatial distribution of these extreme events and their 21st century evolution. Five regions are identified with an extreme event spatial clustering algorithm applied to observed temperatures. They are used to diagnose the 21st century heatwave spatial patterns. In the 2070s, we find a simulated mega-heatwave as severe as the 2003 observed heatwave relative to its contemporaneous climate. A 20-member initial condition ensemble is used to assess the sensitivity of this future heatwave to the internal variability in the regional climate model and to pre-existing land surface conditions. Even in a much warmer and drier climate in France, late spring dry land conditions may lead to a significant amplification of summer extreme temperatures and heatwave intensity through limitations in evapotranspiration. By 2100, the increase in summer temperature maxima exhibits a range from 6 °C to almost 13 °C in the five regions in France, relative to historical maxima. These projections are comparable with the estimates given by a large number of global climate models.

  8. Drier summers cancel out the CO2 uptake enhancement induced by warmer springs.

    PubMed

    Angert, A; Biraud, S; Bonfils, C; Henning, C C; Buermann, W; Pinzon, J; Tucker, C J; Fung, I

    2005-08-02

    An increase in photosynthetic activity of the northern hemisphere terrestrial vegetation, as derived from satellite observations, has been reported in previous studies. The amplitude of the seasonal cycle of the annually detrended atmospheric CO(2) in the northern hemisphere (an indicator of biospheric activity) also increased during that period. We found, by analyzing the annually detrended CO(2) record by season, that early summer (June) CO(2) concentrations indeed decreased from 1985 to 1991, and they have continued to decrease from 1994 up to 2002. This decrease indicates accelerating springtime net CO(2) uptake. However, the CO(2) minimum concentration in late summer (an indicator of net growing-season uptake) showed no positive trend since 1994, indicating that lower net CO(2) uptake during summer cancelled out the enhanced uptake during spring. Using a recent satellite normalized difference vegetation index data set and climate data, we show that this lower summer uptake is probably the result of hotter and drier summers in both mid and high latitudes, demonstrating that a warming climate does not necessarily lead to higher CO(2) growing-season uptake, even in high-latitude ecosystems that are considered to be temperature limited.

  9. Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

    2014-12-01

    This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

  10. Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Heather E; Mazer, Susan J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur. In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype. Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower. If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  11. Is a warmer climate wilting the forests of the north?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Taubes, G.

    1995-03-17

    The far-northern climate has warmed 2 degrees Celsium since the 1880s, much more than the rest of the world. A warmer climate might be expected to speed tree growth and drive the northern edge of the forest farther into the Arctic. However a 4 year study of growth rings in trees growing near the timberline in northern and central Alaska indicated differently. Two researchers, Jacoby and D`Arrigo of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, report that as the high latitudes warmed over the past 100 years, tree growth accelerated at first, but recently the growth rate has flattened while the climate continues tomore » warm. This article discusses how the research was done and the possible implications and explanations, including the possibility that warmer temperatures may encourage outbreaks of insect pests.« less

  12. Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

    2015-12-01

    The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

  13. Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests.

    PubMed

    Mayle, Francis E; Power, Mitchell J

    2008-05-27

    This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

  14. Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity

    Treesearch

    David D. Briske; Linda A. Joyce; H. Wayne Polley; Joel R. Brown; Klaus Wolter; Jack A. Morgan; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

    2015-01-01

    The ecological consequences of climate change are predicted to vary greatly throughout US rangelands. Projections show warming and drying in the southern Great Plains and the Southwest, warmer and drier summers with reduced winter snowpack in the Northwest, and warmer and wetter conditions in the northern Great Plains. Primarily through their combined effects on soil...

  15. Effects of a warmer climate on seed germination in the subarctic

    PubMed Central

    Milbau, Ann; Graae, Bente Jessen; Shevtsova, Anna; Nijs, Ivan

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims In a future warmer subarctic climate, the soil temperatures experienced by dispersed seeds are likely to increase during summer but may decrease during winter due to expected changes in snow depth, duration and quality. Because little is known about the dormancy-breaking and germination requirements of subarctic species, how warming may influence the timing and level of germination in these species was examined. Methods Under controlled conditions, how colder winter and warmer summer soil temperatures influenced germination was tested in 23 subarctic species. The cold stratification and warm incubation temperatures were derived from real soil temperature measurements in subarctic tundra and the temperatures were gradually changed over time to simulate different months of the year. Key Results Moderate summer warming (+2·5 °C) substantially accelerated germination in all but four species but did not affect germination percentages. Optimum germination temperatures (20/10°C) further decreased germination time and increased germination percentages in three species. Colder winter soil temperatures delayed the germination in ten species and decreased the germination percentage in four species, whereas the opposite was found in Silene acaulis. In most species, the combined effect of a reduced snow cover and summer warming resulted in earlier germination and thus a longer first growing season, which improves the chance of seedling survival. In particular the recruitment of (dwarf) shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Betula nana), trees (Alnus incana, Betula pubescens) and grasses (Calamagrostis lapponica, C. purpurea) is likely to benefit from a warmer subarctic climate. Conclusions Seedling establishment is expected to improve in a future warmer subarctic climate, mainly by considerably earlier germination. The magnitudes of the responses are species-specific, which should be taken into account when modelling population growth and migration

  16. Forest disturbances under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-06-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

  17. Forest disturbances under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124

  18. A risk assessment of climate change and the impact of forest diseases on forest ecosystems in the Western United States and Canada

    Treesearch

    John T. Kliejunas

    2011-01-01

    This risk assessment projects the effects of eight forest diseases under two climate-change scenarios (warmer and drier, warmer and wetter). Examples are used to describe how various types of forest diseases may respond to environmental changes. Forest diseases discussed in this report include foliar diseases, Phytophthora diseases, stem rusts,...

  19. Spatial modeling to project Southern Appalachian Trout distribution in warmer climate

    Treesearch

    Patrica A. Flebbe; Laura D. Roghair; Jennifer L. Bruggink

    2006-01-01

    In the southern Appalachian Mountains, the distributions of native brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and brown trout Salmo trutta are presently limited by temperature and are expected to be limited further by a warmer climate. To estimate trout habitat in a future...

  20. Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2015-01-01

    In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

  1. Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dallalio, Eric A.; Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus, warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.

  2. Effect of global climate change on rare trees and shrubs

    Treesearch

    Margaret S. Devall

    2008-01-01

    In the past, climate has fluctuated with periodsof cooler, warmer, drier or wetter weather thanat present. Plants have been able to adapt,but widespread, rapid warming could be disastrousfor rare trees and shrubs – i.e. thosenative species that are among an area’s most

  3. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Treesearch

    Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

  4. Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

  5. Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

    Treesearch

    Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

    2013-01-01

    Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

  6. Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Del Genio, Anthony D.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Ruedy, Reto A.

    1991-01-01

    Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

  7. Will the Arctic Land Surface become Wetter or Drier in Response to a Warming Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinzman, L. D.; Rawlins, M.; Serreze, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Walsh, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    There is much concern about a potentially "accelerated" hydrologic cycle, with associated extremes in weather and climate-related phenomena. Whether this translates into wetter or drier conditions across arctic landscapes remains an open question. Arctic ecosystems differ substantially from those in temperate regions, largely due to the interactions of extremes in climate and land surface characteristics. Ice-rich permafrost prevents percolation of rainfall or snowmelt water, often maintaining a moist to saturated active layer where the permafrost table is shallow. Permafrost may also block the lateral movement of groundwater, and act as a confining unit for water in sub- or intra-permafrost aquifers. However, as permafrost degrades, profound changes in interactions between groundwater and surface water occur that affect the partitioning among the water balance components with subsequent impacts to the surface energy balance and essential ecosystem processes. Most simulations of arctic climate project sustained increases in temperature and gradual increases in precipitation over the 21st century. However, most climatic models do not correctly represent the essential controls that permafrost exerts on hydrological, ecological, and climatological processes. If warming continues as projected, we expect large-scale changes in surface hydrology as permafrost degrades. Where groundwater gradients are downward (i.e. surface water will infiltrate to subsurface groundwater), as in most cases, we may expect improved drainage and drier soils, which would result in reduced evaporation and transpiration (ET). In some special cases, where the groundwater gradient is upward (as in many wetlands or springs) surface soils may become wetter or inundated as permafrost degrades. Further, since soil moisture is a primary factor controlling ecosystem processes, interactions between ecosystems, GHG emissions, and high-latitude climate must also be considered highly uncertain. These inter

  8. Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

    Treesearch

    C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

    2014-01-01

    Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

  9. Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vico, G.; Weih, M.

    2014-12-01

    Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

  10. Contradictory cooling in a warmer world? the climate of the Mediterranean region during the ';Holocene Thermal Maximum'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davis, B.

    2013-12-01

    Extensive evidence from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that temperatures were warmer than present during the early-mid Holocene, a period known as the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). The existence of the HTM over lower mid-latitudes and the sub-tropics however is less clear, with pollen-based reconstructions in particular actually indicating a contrary cooling at this time in these regions. This apparent cooling is controversial because it is not shown in climate model simulations, which indicate that the HTM occurred across all extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is also supported by alkenone based SST reconstructions, which also show a much more widespread HTM than indicated by the pollen data. Here this problem is investigated by reviewing the evidence both for, and against, the HTM in the Mediterranean region, which represents one of the most intensively studied regions of sub-tropical climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This evidence includes a large number of both marine and terrestrial records that can be directly compared due to their close proximity around the Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight the potential for bias in both marine and terrestrial climate proxies, but despite many criticisms of the pollen-based record, it is shown that the existence of more extensive temperate vegetation in the early-mid Holocene in the Mediterranean is difficult to explain by anything other than a cooler climate. For instance, vegetation models driven by climate model output show that the warmer climate suggested by the models produces a HTM vegetation even more arid than today. The results have important implications in the interpretation of proxy records, but perhaps most importantly, the potential for climate models to underestimate cooling processes in a warmer world needs further investigation.

  11. Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2017-04-01

    Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N 2 O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N 2 O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions were temporary and

  12. Changes in the structural composition and reactivity of Acer rubrum leaf litter tannins exposed to warming and altered precipitation: climatic stress-induced tannins are more reactive.

    PubMed

    Tharayil, Nishanth; Suseela, Vidya; Triebwasser, Daniella J; Preston, Caroline M; Gerard, Patrick D; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2011-07-01

    Climate change could increase the frequency with which plants experience abiotic stresses, leading to changes in their metabolic pathways. These stresses may induce the production of compounds that are structurally and biologically different from constitutive compounds. • We studied how warming and altered precipitation affected the composition, structure, and biological reactivity of leaf litter tannins in Acer rubrum at the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA. • Warmer and drier climatic conditions led to higher concentrations of protective compounds, including flavonoids and cutin. The abundance and structure of leaf tannins also responded consistently to climatic treatments. Drought and warming in combination doubled the concentration of total tannins, which reached 30% of leaf-litter DW. This treatment also produced condensed tannins with lower polymerization and a greater proportion of procyanidin units, which in turn reduced sequestration of tannins by litter fiber. Furthermore, because of the structural flexibility of these tannins, litter from this treatment exhibited five times more enzyme (β-glucosidase) complexation capacity on a per-weight basis. Warmer and wetter conditions decreased the amount of foliar condensed tannins. • Our finding that warming and drought result in the production of highly reactive tannins is novel, and highly relevant to climate change research as these tannins, by immobilizing microbial enzymes, could slow litter decomposition and thus carbon and nutrient cycling in a warmer, drier world. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  13. Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe.

    PubMed

    Sicard, Pierre; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

    2015-02-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O3) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O3 injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95-4.59°C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O3 precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O3 uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O3 uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O3 on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O3 pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

  14. Reduced feeding activity of soil detritivores under warmer and drier conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thakur, Madhav P.; Reich, Peter B.; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Stefanski, Artur; Rich, Roy; Rice, Karen E.; Eddy, William C.; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic warming is projected to trigger positive feedbacks to climate by enhancing carbon losses from the soil1. While such losses are, in part, due to increased decomposition of organic matter by invertebrate detritivores, it is unknown how detritivore feeding activity will change with warming2, especially under drought conditions. Here, using four-year manipulation experiments in two North American boreal forests, we investigate how temperature (ambient, ambient + 1.7 °C and ambient + 3.4 °C) and rainfall (ambient and -40% of the summer precipitation) perturbations influence detritivore feeding activity. In contrast to general expectations1,3, warming had negligible net effects on detritivore feeding activity at ambient precipitation. However, when combined with precipitation reductions, warming decreased feeding activity by 14%. Across all plots and dates, detritivore feeding activity was positively associated with bulk soil microbial respiration. These results suggest slower rates of decomposition of soil organic matter and thus reduced positive feedbacks to climate under anthropogenic climate change.

  15. Climate fluctuations in the Czech Lands from AD 1500 compiled from various proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš

    2017-04-01

    The territory of the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) belongs to European areas well covered by dedrochronological, documentary and instrumental data which can be used for climate reconstructions for the last c. 500 years, i.e. for description of climate fluctuations during the greater part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the subsequent period of the recent Global Warming. Synthesis of various existing reconstructions should help to create more consistent description of climate variability in that period in Central Europe. The contribution starts from characteristic of the basic features of three existing data sources and a general method of climate reconstruction. Monthly, seasonal and annual climate reconstructions based on different data are presented: a) temperature reconstructions derived from series of temperature indices, winter wheat harvest days and grape harvest days; b) precipitation reconstructions derived from series of precipitation indices and fir tree-rings; c) drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index and PDSI) reconstructions derived from series of fir tree-rings, grape harvest days and documentary-based temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Basic features of past c. 500 years are represented by various time intervals of cooler and warmer climate on the one hand and wetter and drier climate on the other. Examples of such particularly warmer and drier period can be the 1530s (with extreme 1540 year) or colder and wetter conditions during the 1590s and 1690s. Outstanding extreme weather events during LIA in Central Europe are briefly mentioned and our findings are discussed with respect to climate fluctuations and forcings in wider European context. (This study was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project nos. 13-04291S and 17-10026S).

  16. Climate Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Eastern North America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Renik, B.; Maenza-Gmeich, T.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.

    2002-01-01

    Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.

  17. 21 CFR 181.25 - Driers.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Driers. Substances classified as driers, when migrating from food-packaging material shall include... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2010-04-01 2009-04-01 true Driers. 181.25 Section 181.25 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN...

  18. 21 CFR 181.25 - Driers.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Driers. Substances classified as driers, when migrating from food-packaging material shall include... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Driers. 181.25 Section 181.25 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN...

  19. 21 CFR 181.25 - Driers.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Driers. Substances classified as driers, when migrating from food-packaging material shall include... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Driers. 181.25 Section 181.25 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN...

  20. 21 CFR 181.25 - Driers.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Driers. Substances classified as driers, when migrating from food-packaging material shall include... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Driers. 181.25 Section 181.25 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) FOOD FOR HUMAN...

  1. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

    PubMed Central

    Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

    2017-01-01

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

  2. Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

    2017-11-21

    Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

  3. Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

    2016-12-01

    It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional

  4. A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

    2015-12-01

    High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback

  5. Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

  6. The last interglacial in eastern Canada and the northwest North Atlantic : further evidence for warmer climate and ocean conditions than during the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Vernal, A.; Fréchette, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; van Nieuwenhove, N.; Retailleau, S.

    2012-04-01

    The climate conditions of the last interglacial (LI) in northeastern and southeastern Canada are documented from pollen data of Baffin Island and Cape Breton Island respectively. The LI pollen assemblages indicate very different vegetation than at present and a northern limit of the deciduous forest biome as far as 500 km north of its modern position. The application of the modern analogue technique also reveal warmer climate during the LI than at present, 4-5°C warmer on Baffin Island at ~67-70°N in the Canadian Arctic, and up to 7°C warmer on Cape Breton Island at ~45°N in the southeastern Canada. The contrast between LI and Holocene climates is also shown from marine data (dinocysts, foraminifers, oxygen and carbon isotopes) that document warmer than Holocene conditions in surface waters (up to 5.5°C in summer, notably off southwest Greenland) and very distinct distribution of intermediate to deep waters in northern and southern part of the Labrador Sea. An important zonal atmospheric circulation component at mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic is also evidenced from the pollen content of marine cores collected in central North Atlantic (IODP Site 1304), which strongly suggests an origin from southeastern Canada. Altogether the data demonstrate much warmer conditions along the eastern Canadian margins, from North to South. The mild conditions along the coastlines and the relatively warm waters off eastern Canada and southern Greenland suggest reduced Arctic outflow components through the East Greenland Current and Labrador Current. Comparisons with records from eastern North Atlantic lead us to conclude in a more zonal climate during the LI than the Holocene, especially the early Holocene that was marked by a particularly pronounced west to east gradient of temperatures. Hence, the thermal optimum of the LI and that of the Holocene provide two examples of very different climate and ocean circulation regimes in the circum-Atlantic region during the "warm

  7. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  8. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

    PubMed

    Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  9. Pliocene environments and climates in the western United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, R.S.

    1991-01-01

    The available evidence from the western United States suggests that the climate of the Early and Middle Pliocene (prior to ???2.4 Ma) was less seasonal (more equable) and generally more humid than now. Along the Pacific coast, summer drought was less pronounced than today. In the interior of the Pacific Northwest rainfall was more abundant and mild winter temperatures prevailed across much of the High Plains. In the Northwestern interior, a trend toward drier conditions began after ???4 Ma, although there may have been short periods of relatively humid conditions after this time. The period between 2.5 or 2.4-2.0 Ma was drier than earlier in the Pliocene throughout the American West, and apparently colder in many regions, although the occurrence of land tortoises as far north as Kansas may indicate intermittent frost-free conditions during this interval. After ???2.0 Ma conditions became warmer and more humid. The general climatic trends in the terrestrial data parallel fluctuations seen in North Pacific and in Oxygen Isotopic records of global glacial fluctuations. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the regional effects of Late Cenozoic uplift and mountain-building are generally in accord with the nature, direction, and amplitude of differences between Pliocene and modern climates. ?? 1991.

  10. Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California’s Central Valley

    PubMed Central

    Fleskes, Joseph P.

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  11. Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

    2017-01-01

    The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

  12. Pollen-proxies say cooler, climate models say warmer: resolving conflicting views of the Holocene climate of the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, E.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-12-01

    The evolution of the Mediterranean region's climate during the Holocene has been the subject of long-standing debate within the paleoclimate community. Conflicting hypotheses have emerged from the analysis of different climate reconstructions based on proxy records and climate models outputs.In particular, pollen-based reconstructions of cooler summer temperatures during the Holocene have been criticized based on a hypothesis that the Mediterranean vegetation is mainly limited by effective precipitation and not summer temperature. This criticism is important because climate models show warmer summer temperatures during the Holocene over the Mediterranean region, in direct contradiction of the pollen-based evidence. Here we investigate this problem using a high resolution model simulation of the climate of the Mediterranean region during the mid-to-late Holocene, which we compare against pollen-based reconstructions using two different approaches.In the first, we compare the simulated climate from the model directly with the climate derived from the pollen data. In the second, we compare the simulated vegetation from the model directly with the vegetation from the pollen data.Results show that the climate model is unable to simulate neither the climate nor the vegetation shown by the pollen-data. The pollen data indicates an expansion in cool temperate vegetation in the mid-Holocene while the model suggests an expansion in warm arid vegetation. This suggests that the data-model discrepancy is more likely the result of bias in climate models, and not bias in the pollen-climate calibration transfer-function.

  13. Snowmelt sensitivity to warmer temperatures: a field-validated model analysis, southern Sierra Nevada, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    We present model simulations of climate change impacts on snowmelt processes over a 1600 km2 area in the southern Sierra Nevada, including western Sequoia National Park. The domain spans a 3600 m elevation gradient and ecosystems ranging from semi-arid grasslands to giant sequoia groves to alpine tundra. Three reference years were evaluated: a moderately dry snow season (23% below average SWE), an average snow season (7% above average SWE), and a moderately wet snow season (54% above average SWE). The Alpine3D model was run for the reference years and results were evaluated against data from a multi-scale measurement campaign that included repeated manual snow courses and basin-scale snow surveys, dozens of automated snow depth sensors, and automated SWE stations. Compared to automated measurements, the model represented the date of snow disappearance within two days. Compared to manual measurements, model SWE RMSE values for the average and wet snow seasons were highly correlated (R2=0.89 and R2=0.73) with the distance of SWE measurements from the nearest precipitation gauge used to force the model; no significant correlation was found with elevation. The results suggest that Alpine3D is highly accurate during the melt season and that precipitation uncertainty may critically limit snow model accuracy. The air temperature measured at 19 regional stations for the three reference years was modified by +1°C to +6°C to simulate the impact of warmer temperatures on snowmelt dynamics over the 3600 m elevation gradient. For all years, progressively warmer temperatures caused the seasonal SWE centroid to shift earlier and higher in elevation. At forested middle elevations, 70 - 80% of the present-day snowpack volume is lost in a +2°C scenario; 30 - 40% of that change is a result of precipitation phase shift and the remainder is due to enhanced melt. At all elevations, spring and fall snowpack was most sensitive to warmer temperatures; mid-winter sensitivity was least

  14. Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Xiao, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Schultz, Natalie; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Lei

    2018-06-01

    Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

  15. Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

    1999-01-01

    The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for (i) warmer, (ii) warmer and 20% wetter, and (iii) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

  16. Climate change and the Delta

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  17. Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires.

    PubMed

    Girardin, Martin P; Ali, Adam A; Carcaillet, Christopher; Blarquez, Olivier; Hély, Christelle; Terrier, Aurélie; Genries, Aurélie; Bergeron, Yves

    2013-09-01

    Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated. Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales. Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (AD c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component. Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  18. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.

    PubMed

    Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S

    2018-02-01

    Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sicard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.sicard@acri-st.fr; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

    The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate changemore » context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O{sub 3} injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46–1.08 °C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95–4.59 °C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O{sub 3} precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O{sub 3} uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O{sub 3} uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O{sub 3} on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O{sub 3} pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to

  20. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain.

    PubMed

    Dorado-Liñán, I; Akhmetzyanov, L; Menzel, A

    2017-12-01

    European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  1. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

    2017-12-01

    European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  2. Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V

    2012-01-01

    Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less

  3. Contrasting water strategies of two Mediterranean shrubs of limited distribution: uncertain future under a drier climate.

    PubMed

    Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Forner, Alicia; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-12-01

    Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with drought, involving alternative ecophysiologies and different levels of plasticity. These strategies are critical for species of limited distribution, which are especially vulnerable to the current rates of rapid environmental change. The aim of this study was to assess the water strategy of two species with limited distribution, Cneorum tricoccon L. and Rhamnus ludovici-salvatoris Chodat., and evaluate their interpopulation variability along an aridity gradient to estimate their vulnerability to a drier climate. We measured different ecophysiological traits influenced by drought--stomatal conductance, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosynthesis II, carbon isotope ratio and chlorophyll concentration--in two climatically contrasting years, before and during summer drought. Both species were vulnerable to drought at the aridity limit of the gradient, but showed contrasting water strategies: while C. tricoccon was consistent in its water conservation strategy across the aridity gradient, R. ludovici-salvatoris was not, displaying higher and more variable stomatal conductances and being able to increase water-use efficiency at the most xeric sites. Changes in length and intensity of drought events may favor one species' strategy to the detriment of the other: C. tricoccon is more vulnerable to chronic and prolonged droughts, whereas short but acute droughts might have a stronger effect on R. ludovici-salvatoris. In those communities where these two species coexist, such different strategies might lead to changes in community structure under climate change scenarios, with unknown cascade effects on ecosystem functioning.

  4. Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction

  5. Agricultural Practice and Regional Climate Interactions in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooley, H. S.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

    2003-12-01

    Regional climate affects the timing of harvest for rain-fed crops. In response to dry conditions, for example, farmers may harvest crops earlier than they do under wet conditions. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate conditions. We studied the dynamic relationship between land use practice, i.e. winter wheat harvest, and regional climate by applying a coupled climate (MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to the ARM-CART region of the Southern Great Plains. We compared early and late harvest scenarios, with winter wheat harvested on June 5 and July 5, respectively. Winter wheat is grown in a fairly uniform belt that accounts for 20% of the total land area over the domain of the ARM-CART. Results showed that harvest dramatically affects energy, momentum, and water fluxes. Regionally-averaged, 2 m air temperatures were 0.5-1\\deg C warmer in the early- compared to late-harvest case, with peak warming of 5\\deg C centered over the harvested area. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm. Near-surface soil water-filled pore space was reduced by 7% across the region, with a peak drying of 22% centered over the harvested area. Soils were up to 10\\deg C warmer, with area-averaged warming of ~0.6\\deg C at mid-day two weeks after harvest. Differences between scenarios were greatest during an initial two-week dry period. A subsequent wet period greatly reduced these differences.

  6. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

  7. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    PubMed

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  8. More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

  9. Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

    2010-05-01

    According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

  10. Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

    2014-05-01

    An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

  11. Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

    2016-01-01

    The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800-1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years.

  12. Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

    2016-01-01

    The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years. PMID:27196048

  13. A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Wenfeng; Liu, Xi; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Xie, Luhua; Zhao, Jian-xin

    2017-01-01

    For the global oceans, the characteristics of high-resolution climate changes during the last millennium remain uncertain because of the limited availability of proxy data. This study reconstructs climate conditions using annually resolved coral records from the South China Sea (SCS) to provide new insights into climate change over the last millennium. The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900-1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850-present), which contradicts previous studies. The similar warmth levels for the MCA and CWP have also been recorded in the Makassar Strait of Indonesia, which suggests that the MCA was not warmer than the CWP in the western Pacific and that this may not have been a globally uniform change. Hydrological conditions were drier/saltier during the MCA and similar to those of the CWP. The drier/saltier MCA and CWP in the western Pacific may be associated with the reduced precipitation caused by variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation. As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550-1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity. The fresher/wetter LIA in the western Pacific may have been caused by the synchronized retreat of both the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon.

  14. [Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].

    PubMed

    Song, Chun-qiao; You, Song-cai; Ke, Ling-hong; Liu, Gao-huan; Zhong, Xin-ke

    2011-08-01

    By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.

  15. Responses of Hail and Storm Days to Climate Change in the Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Tian; Zhang, Qinghong; Li, Wenhong; Li, Jihong

    2018-05-01

    There is increasing concern that local severe storm occurrence may be changing as a result of climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world's most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region. However, what caused the frequency changes of storm and hail in the TP is largely unknown. Based on 53-year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.

  16. Deglacial climate variability in central Florida, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Brooks, G.R.; Cronin, T. M.; Edgar, T.; Larson, R.

    2007-01-01

    Pollen and ostracode evidence from lacustrine sediments underlying modern Tampa Bay, Florida, document frequent and abrupt climatic and hydrological events superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Radiocarbon chronology on well-preserved mollusk shells and pollen residue from core MD02-2579 documents continuous sedimentation in a variety of non-marine habitats in a karst-controlled basin from 20 ka to 11.5 ka. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), much drier and cooler-than-modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae and Carya, with rare Pinus (Pinus pollen increased to 20–40% during the warming of the initial deglaciation (∼ 17.2 ka), reaching near modern abundance (60–80%) during warmer, moister climates of the Bølling/Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka). Within the Bølling/Allerød, centennial-scale dry events corresponding to the Older Dryas and Intra-Allerød Cold Period indicate rapid vegetation response (

  17. Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

    2014-11-01

    An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

  18. Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

    2012-04-01

    Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato

  19. Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

    2013-09-01

    Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

  20. A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

  1. Coexisting oak species, including rear-edge populations, buffer climate stress through xylem adjustments.

    PubMed

    Granda, E; Alla, A Q; Laskurain, N A; Loidi, J; Sánchez-Lorenzo, A; Camarero, J J

    2018-02-01

    The ability of trees to cope with climate change is a pivotal feature of forest ecosystems, especially for rear-edge populations facing warm and dry conditions. To evaluate current and future forests threats, a multi-proxy focus on the growth, anatomical and physiological responses to climate change is needed. We examined the long-term xylem adjustments to climate variability of the temperate Quercus robur L. at its rear edge and the sub-Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Both species coexist at a mesic (ME, humid and warmer) and a xeric (XE, dry and cooler) site in northern Spain, the latter experiencing increasing temperatures in recent decades. We compared xylem traits at each site and assessed their trends, relationships and responses to climate (1960-2008). Traits included basal area increment, earlywood vessel hydraulic diameter, density and theoretical-specific hydraulic conductivity together with latewood oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes and δ13C-derived water-use efficiency (iWUE). Quercus robur showed the highest growth at ME, likely through enhanced cambial activity. Quercus pyrenaica had higher iWUE at XE compared with ME, but limited plasticity of anatomical xylem traits was found for the two oak species. Similar physiological performance was found for both species. The iWUE augmented in recent years especially at XE, likely explained by stomatal closure given the increasing δ18O signal in response to drier and sunnier growing seasons. Overall, traits were more correlated at XE than at ME. The iWUE improvements were linked to higher growth up to a threshold (~85 μmol mol-1) after which reduced growth was found at XE. Our results are consistent with Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur coexisting at the central and dry edge of the climatic species distribution, respectively, showing similar responses to buffer warmer conditions. In fact, the observed adjustments found for Q. robur point towards growth stability of similar rear-edge oak populations under

  2. Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

    2014-01-01

    The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem

  3. Local and Remote Climate Response to Deforestation in Maritime Continent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, C. C.; Lo, M. H.; Yu, J. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Deforestation in tropical regions would lead to changes in local energy and moisture budget, resulting in further impacts on regional and global climate. Previous studies have indicated that the reduction of evapotranspiration dominates the influence of tropical deforestation, which causes a warmer and drier climate. Most studies agree that the deforestation leads to an increase in temperature and decline in precipitation over the deforested area. However, unlike Amazon or Africa, Maritime Continent consists of islands surrounded by oceans so the drying effects found in Amazon or Africa may not be the case in Maritime Continent. Thus, our objective is to investigate the local and remote climate responses to deforestation in such unique region. We conduct deforestation experiments using NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and through converting the tropical rainforest into grassland. The preliminary results show that deforestation in Maritime Continent leads to an increase in both temperature and precipitation, which is not predicted by earlier studies. We will further perform moisture budget analysis to explore how the precipitation changes with the deforestation forcing.

  4. Climate driven egg and hatchling mortality threatens survival of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles.

    PubMed

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Blanco, Gabriela S; Stock, Charles A; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

    2012-01-01

    Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niño increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ∼50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes.

  5. [Responses of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth to climate warming in Great Xing' an Mountins: a case study in Mangui].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xing-Liang; He, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Li, Na

    2011-12-01

    Based on the theory and methodology of dendrochronology, the tree ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Mangui of Great Xing' an Mountains was developed, and the relationships between the standardized tree ring width chronology and local climate factors (temperature and precipitation) as well as the effects of climate factors on the P. sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth were analyzed. In this region, the mean monthly temperature in April-August of current year was the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the increasing mean monthly temperature from April to August had negative effects to the radial growth. The simulation of the variations of the radial growth by the mean monthly temperature change in April-August showed that the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica would present a declining trend accompanied with the warmer and drier regional climate condition.

  6. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    PubMed

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  7. Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.

    PubMed

    Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

  8. Epiphyte response to drought and experimental warming in an Andean cloud forest

    PubMed Central

    Rapp, Joshua M.; Silman, Miles R.

    2014-01-01

    The high diversity and abundance of vascular epiphytes in tropical montane cloud forest is associated with frequent cloud immersion, which is thought to protect plants from drought stress. Increasing temperature and rising cloud bases associated with climate change may increase epiphyte drought stress, leading to species and biomass loss. We tested the hypothesis that warmer and drier conditions associated with a lifting cloud base will lead to increased mortality and/or decreased recruitment of epiphyte ramets, altering species composition in epiphyte mats. By using a reciprocal transplant design, where epiphyte mats were transplanted across an altitudinal gradient of increasing cloud immersion, we differentiated between the effects of warmer and drier conditions from the more general prediction of niche theory that transplanting epiphytes in any direction away from their home elevation should result in reduced performance. Effects differed among species, but effects were generally stronger and more negative for epiphytes in mats transplanted down slope from the highest elevation, into warmer and drier conditions, than for epiphyte mats transplanted from other elevations. In contrast, epiphytes from lower elevations showed greater resistance to drought in all treatments. Epiphyte community composition changed with elevation, but over the timescale of the experiment there were no consistent changes in species composition. Our results suggest some epiphytes may show resistance to climate change depending on the environmental and evolutionary context. In particular, sites where high rainfall makes cloud immersion less important for epiphyte water-balance, or where occasional drought has previously selected for drought-resistant taxa, may be less adversely affected by predicted climate changes. PMID:25165534

  9. Epiphyte response to drought and experimental warming in an Andean cloud forest.

    PubMed

    Rapp, Joshua M; Silman, Miles R

    2014-01-01

    The high diversity and abundance of vascular epiphytes in tropical montane cloud forest is associated with frequent cloud immersion, which is thought to protect plants from drought stress. Increasing temperature and rising cloud bases associated with climate change may increase epiphyte drought stress, leading to species and biomass loss. We tested the hypothesis that warmer and drier conditions associated with a lifting cloud base will lead to increased mortality and/or decreased recruitment of epiphyte ramets, altering species composition in epiphyte mats. By using a reciprocal transplant design, where epiphyte mats were transplanted across an altitudinal gradient of increasing cloud immersion, we differentiated between the effects of warmer and drier conditions from the more general prediction of niche theory that transplanting epiphytes in any direction away from their home elevation should result in reduced performance. Effects differed among species, but effects were generally stronger and more negative for epiphytes in mats transplanted down slope from the highest elevation, into warmer and drier conditions, than for epiphyte mats transplanted from other elevations. In contrast, epiphytes from lower elevations showed greater resistance to drought in all treatments. Epiphyte community composition changed with elevation, but over the timescale of the experiment there were no consistent changes in species composition. Our results suggest some epiphytes may show resistance to climate change depending on the environmental and evolutionary context. In particular, sites where high rainfall makes cloud immersion less important for epiphyte water-balance, or where occasional drought has previously selected for drought-resistant taxa, may be less adversely affected by predicted climate changes.

  10. Climatic variation and the distribution of an amphibian polyploid complex

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otto, C.R.V.; Snodgrass, J.W.; Forester, D.C.; Mitchell, J.C.; Miller, R.W.

    2007-01-01

    1. The establishment of polyploid populations involves the persistence and growth of the polyploid in the presence of the progenitor species. Although there have been a number of animal polyploid species documented, relatively few inquiries have been made into the large-scale mechanisms of polyploid establishment in animal groups. Herein we investigate the influence of regional climatic conditions on the distributional patterns of a diploid-tetraploid species pair of gray treefrogs, Hyla chrysoscelis and H. versicolor (Anura: Hylidae) in the mid-Atlantic region of eastern North America. 2. Calling surveys at breeding sites were used to document the distribution of each species. Twelve climatic models and one elevation model were generated to predict climatic and elevation values for gray treefrog breeding sites. A canonical analysis of discriminants was used to describe relationships between climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of H. chrysoscelis and H. versicolor. 3. There was a strong correlation between several climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of the gray treefrog complex. Specifically, the tetraploid species almost exclusively occupied areas of higher elevation, where climatic conditions were relatively severe (colder, drier, greater annual variation). In contrast, the diploid species was restricted to lower elevations, where climatic conditions were warmer, wetter and exhibited less annual variation. 4. Clusters of syntopic sites were associated with areas of high variation in annual temperature and precipitation during the breeding season. 5. Our data suggest that large-scale climatic conditions have played a role in the establishment of the polyploid H. versicolor in at least some portions of its range. The occurrence of the polyploid and absence of the progenitor in colder, drier and more varied environments suggests the polyploid may posses a tolerance of severe environmental conditions that is not possessed by the diploid

  11. Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

    2009-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

  12. Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Matthew J; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E; Thomas, Chris D

    2015-07-31

    Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.

  13. Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Matthew J.; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E.; Thomas, Chris D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators. PMID:26227623

  14. The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.

    PubMed

    Soto-Correa, J C; Sáenz-Romero, C; Lindig-Cisneros, R; de la Barrera, E

    2013-05-01

    Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.

  15. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

    Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

  16. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

    PubMed

    Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

    2018-05-29

    Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

    DOE PAGES

    Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

    2018-05-29

    Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

  18. Windblown Dust and Air Quality Under a Changing Climate in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharratt, B. S.; Tatarko, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Fox, F.; Huggins, D. R.

    2016-12-01

    Wind erosion is a concern for sustainable agriculture and societal health in the US Pacific Northwest. Indeed, wind erosion continues to cause exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for PM10 in the region. Can we expect air quality to deteriorate or improve as climate changes? Will wind erosion escalate in the future under a warmer and drier climate as forecast for Australia, southern prairies of Canada, northern China, and United States Corn Belt and Colorado Plateau? To answer these questions, we used 18 global climate models, cropping systems simulation model (CropSyst), and the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) to simulate the complex interactions among climate, crop production, and wind erosion. These simulations were carried out in eastern Washington where wind erosion of agricultural lands contribute to poor air quality in the region. Our results suggest that an increase in temperature and CO2 concentration, coupled with nominal increases in precipitation, will enhance biomass production and reduce soil and PM10 losses by the mid-21st century. This study reveals that climate change may reduce the risk of wind erosion and improve air quality in the Inland Pacific Northwest.

  19. Evaluation of biogeographical factors in the native range to improve the success of biological control agents in the introduced range

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Biogeographical factors associated with Arundo donax in its native range were evaluated in reference to its key herbivore, an armored scale, Rhizaspidiotus donacis. Climate modeling from location data in Spain and France accurately predicted the native range of the scale in the warmer, drier parts o...

  20. Shrub growth response to climate across the North Slope of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ackerman, D.; Griffin, D.; Finlay, J. C.; Hobbie, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are driving the expansion of woody shrubs in arctic tundra, yielding feedbacks to regional carbon cycling. Accounting for these feedbacks in global climate models will require accurate predictions of the spatial extent of shrub expansion within arctic tundra. While dendroecological approaches have proven useful in understanding how shrubs respond to climate, empirical studies to date are limited in spatial extent, often to just one or two sites within a landscape. A recent meta-analysis of such dendroecological studies hypothesizes that soil moisture is a key variable in determining climate sensitivity of arctic shrub growth. We present the first regional-scale empirical test of this hypothesis by analyzing inter-annual radial growth of deciduous shrubs across soil moisture gradients throughout the North Slope of Alaska. Contrary to expectation, riparian shrubs in high-moisture environments showed no climate sensitivity, while shrubs growing in drier upland sites showed a strong positive growth response to summer temperature. These results proved robust to a variety of detrending functions ranging from conservative (negative exponential) to data adaptive (20-year cubic smoothing spline). These findings call into question the role of soil moisture in determining the climate sensitivity of arctic shrubs and further highlight the importance of unified, regional-scale sampling strategies in understanding climate-vegetation links.

  1. 21 CFR 181.25 - Driers.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... migrating from food-packaging material shall include: Cobalt caprylate. Cobalt linoleate. Cobalt naphthenate... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Driers. 181.25 Section 181.25 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) PRIOR-SANCTIONED FOOD...

  2. Predicting species-specific responses of fungi to climatic variation using historical records.

    PubMed

    Diez, Jeffrey M; James, Timothy Y; McMunn, Marshall; Ibáñez, Inés

    2013-10-01

    Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn-fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life-history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  4. Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-Glacial-Holocene Transition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

    2016-01-01

    Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

  5. Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

    2016-02-01

    Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

  6. Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition.

    PubMed

    Han, Y M; Peteet, D M; Arimoto, R; Cao, J J; An, Z S; Sritrairat, S; Yan, B Z

    2016-02-10

    Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

  7. Ants and termites increase crop yield in a dry climate.

    PubMed

    Evans, Theodore A; Dawes, Tracy Z; Ward, Philip R; Lo, Nathan

    2011-03-29

    Agricultural intensification has increased crop yields, but at high economic and environmental cost. Harnessing ecosystem services of naturally occurring organisms is a cheaper but under-appreciated approach, because the functional roles of organisms are not linked to crop yields, especially outside the northern temperate zone. Ecosystem services in soil come from earthworms in these cooler and wetter latitudes; what may fulfill their functional role in agriculture in warmer and drier habitats, where they are absent, is unproven. Here we show in a field experiment that ants and termites increase wheat yield by 36% from increased soil water infiltration due to their tunnels and improved soil nitrogen. Our results suggest that ants and termites have similar functional roles to earthworms, and that they may provide valuable ecosystem services in dryland agriculture, which may become increasingly important for agricultural sustainability in arid climates.

  8. Ants and termites increase crop yield in a dry climate

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Theodore A.; Dawes, Tracy Z.; Ward, Philip R.; Lo, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    Agricultural intensification has increased crop yields, but at high economic and environmental cost. Harnessing ecosystem services of naturally occurring organisms is a cheaper but under-appreciated approach, because the functional roles of organisms are not linked to crop yields, especially outside the northern temperate zone. Ecosystem services in soil come from earthworms in these cooler and wetter latitudes; what may fulfill their functional role in agriculture in warmer and drier habitats, where they are absent, is unproven. Here we show in a field experiment that ants and termites increase wheat yield by 36% from increased soil water infiltration due to their tunnels and improved soil nitrogen. Our results suggest that ants and termites have similar functional roles to earthworms, and that they may provide valuable ecosystem services in dryland agriculture, which may become increasingly important for agricultural sustainability in arid climates. PMID:21448161

  9. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  10. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  11. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  12. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  13. 21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

  14. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

    PubMed

    Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

    2016-11-15

    We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations.

    PubMed

    Bansal, Sheel; St Clair, J Bradley; Harrington, Constance A; Gould, Peter J

    2015-10-01

    The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e., cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G × E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, and warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to test the hypotheses: (i) cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, (ii) there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, (iii) observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, and (iv) movement of seed sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle, and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree hours below 2 °C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold

  16. Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

    PubMed

    Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

    2017-02-01

    Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Climate influences the leaf area/sapwood area ratio in Scots pine.

    PubMed

    Mencuccini, M; Grace, J

    1995-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that the leaf area/sapwood area ratio in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is influenced by site differences in water vapor pressure deficit of the air (D). Two stands of the same provenance were selected, one in western Scotland and one in eastern England, so that effects resulting from age, genetic variability, density and fertility were minimized. Compared with the Scots pine trees at the cooler and wetter site in Scotland, the trees at the warmer and drier site in England produced less leaf area per unit of conducting sapwood area both at a stem height of 1.3 m and at the base of the live crown, whereas stem permeability was similar at both sites. Also, trees at the drier site had less leaf area per unit branch cross-sectional area at the branch base than trees at the wetter site. For each site, the average values for leaf area, sapwood area and permeability were used, together with values of transpiration rates at different D, to calculate average stem water potential gradients. Changes in the leaf area/sapwood area ratio acted to maintain a similar water potential gradient in the stems of trees at both sites despite climatic differences between the sites.

  18. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  19. Counter flow cooling drier with integrated heat recovery

    DOEpatents

    Shivvers, Steve D [Prole, IA

    2009-08-18

    A drier apparatus for removing water or other liquids from various materials includes a mixer, drying chamber, separator and regenerator and a method for use of the apparatus. The material to be dried is mixed with a heated media to form a mixture which then passes through the chamber. While passing through the chamber, a comparatively cool fluid is passed counter current through the mixture so that the mixture becomes cooler and drier and the fluid becomes hotter and more saturated with moisture. The mixture is then separated into drier material and media. The media is transferred to the regenerator and heated therein by the hot fluid from the chamber and supplemental heat is supplied to bring the media to a preselected temperature for mixing with the incoming material to be dried. In a closed loop embodiment of the apparatus, the fluid is also recycled from the regenerator to the chamber and a chiller is utilized to reduce the temperature of the fluid to a preselected temperature and dew point temperature.

  20. A decade of streamwater nitrogen and forest dynamics after a mountain pine beetle outbreak at the Fraser Experimental Forest, Colorado

    Treesearch

    Charles C. Rhoades; Robert M. Hubbard; Kelly Elder

    2017-01-01

    Forests of western North America are currently experiencing extensive tree mortality from a variety of bark beetle species, and insect outbreaks are projected to increase under warmer, drier climates. Unlike the abrupt biogeochemical changes typical after wildfire and timber harvesting, the outcomes of insect outbreaks are poorly understood. The mountain pine bark...

  1. Food Safety for Warmer Weather

    MedlinePlus

    ... Fight Off Food Poisoning Food Safety for Warmer Weather En español Send us your comments In warm-weather months, who doesn’t love to get outside ... to keep foods safe to eat during warmer weather. If you’re eating or preparing foods outside, ...

  2. Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

  3. Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Alexis L; Kemanian, Armen R; Forest, Chris E

    2018-01-01

    Food security and agriculture productivity assessments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) require a better understanding of how climate and other drivers influence regional crop yields. In this paper, our objective was to identify the climate signal in the realized yields of maize, sorghum, and groundnut in SSA. We explored the relation between crop yields and scale-compatible climate data for the 1962-2014 period using Random Forest, a diagnostic machine learning technique. We found that improved agricultural technology and country fixed effects are three times more important than climate variables for explaining changes in crop yields in SSA. We also found that increasing temperatures reduced yields for all three crops in the temperature range observed in SSA, while precipitation increased yields up to a level roughly matching crop evapotranspiration. Crop yields exhibited both linear and nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation, respectively. For maize, technology steadily increased yields by about 1% (13 kg/ha) per year while increasing temperatures decreased yields by 0.8% (10 kg/ha) per °C. This study demonstrates that although we should expect increases in future crop yields due to improving technology, the potential yields could be progressively reduced due to warmer and drier climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Ecosystem carbon balance in a drier future: land-atmosphere exchanges of CO2, water and energy across semiarid southwestern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.; Litvak, M. E.; Kolb, T.; Yépez, E. A.; Oechel, W. C.; Meyers, T. P.; Papuga, S. A.; Ponce-Campos, G.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Maurer, G. E.; Dore, S.; Garatuza, J.; Bell, T. W.; Krishnan, P.

    2015-12-01

    The southwest US and northwest Mexico are predicted to become warmer and drier, increasing disturbance, shifting ecosystem composition, and altering global CO2 cycling. However, direct measurements of ecosystem land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in this region have lagged behind those in wetter regions. In this presentation we present a synthesis of CO2, water, and energy exchanges made at 25 Southwest eddy covariance sites (3-10 years each, n = 174 years). This regional gradient includes desert shrublands, grasslands, savannas, and forests and spans ranges of 200 - 800 mm in mean annual precipitation and 2 - 24 ⁰C mean annual temperature, a climate space that has been underrepresented in flux databases and publications. We compare measured fluxes against state-of-the-art remote sensing and modeling products representing current best regional estimates. We find that 65% of annual net ecosystem production of CO2 (NEP) is explained by water availability. Meanwhile, most of the unexplained NEP variability is related to site-specific differences persisting over the observation years, suggesting slow-changing controls such as demography (plant type, age, structure) and legacies of disturbance. Disturbances that kill plants without removing biomass, such as drought, tend to decrease productivity and increase respiration, shifting sites from carbon sinks to sources. However, following disturbances that removed biomass, such as fire, both productivity and respiration decline, with minimal impacts on NEP. Remote sensing and modeling match mean CO2 uptake measurements across spatial gradients in climate and plant functional type. However, measured uptake reveals 200-400% greater interannual variability than model estimates. High variability and sensitivity to water help us understand why semiarid ecosystems dominate the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink in global accounting studies.

  5. Linking wood anatomy and xylogenesis allows pinpointing of climate and drought influences on growth of coexisting conifers in continental Mediterranean climate.

    PubMed

    Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same

  6. Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

    2016-03-31

    The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

  7. Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

    PubMed

    O'Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D W; Linke, Andrew M; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy

    2012-11-06

    Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate-conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (~100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate-conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.

  8. A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

    PubMed

    Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

    2013-06-01

    Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. Ten years after wildfires: How does varying tree mortality impact fire hazard and forest resiliency?

    Treesearch

    Camille S. Stevens-Rumann; Carolyn H. Sieg; Molly E. Hunter

    2012-01-01

    Severe wildfires across the western US have lead to concerns about heavy surface fuel loading and the potential for high-intensity reburning. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, often overly dense from a century of fire suppression, are increasingly susceptible to large and severe wildfires especially given warmer and drier climate projections for the future....

  10. Tree responses to drought

    Treesearch

    Michael G. Ryan

    2011-01-01

    With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...

  11. Portable Cooler/Warmers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Early in the space program, NASA recognized the need to replace bulky coils, compressers, and motors for refrigeration purposes by looking at existing thermoelectric technology. This effort resulted in the development of miniaturized thermoelectric components and packaging to accommodate tight confines of spacecraft. Koolatron's portable electronic refrigerators incorporate this NASA technology. Each of the cooler/warmers employs one or two miniaturized thermoelectric modules. Although each module is only the size of a book of matches, it delivers the cooling power of a 10-pound block of ice. In some models, the cooler can be converted to a warmer. There are no moving parts. The Koolatrons can be plugged into auto cigarette lighters, recreational vehicles, boats or motel outlets.

  12. Response of lizards to high-severity wildfires in a southern United States mixed pine/hardwood forest

    Treesearch

    Adam ​Duarte; Donald J. Brown; Michael R. J. Forstner

    2017-01-01

    High-severity forest fires are increasing in large areas of the southern and western United States as the climate becomes warmer and drier. Natural resource managers need a better understanding of the short- and long-term effects of wildfires on lizard populations, but there is a paucity of studies focused on lizard-wildfire relationships. We used a before-after,...

  13. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    PubMed

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  14. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  15. Research on design connotation of hair drier system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Yongchuan; Wu, Qiong

    2018-04-01

    After the analysis and summary of the research on the design of hair drier system, the system design is focused on. Product system design is not only to study its entity, but also is recognized as the part, element and component with a systematic feature to deeply analyze the innovation way of product system design, which is taken as its concept to carry out the association analysis on the component elements of hair driers and the overall analysis and study on the system design process of hair dryers. The product life cycle is taken as the main goal, through system analysis, system synthesis and system optimization, to solve the problems of product design. It is of great practical significance.

  16. Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

    PubMed

    Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

    2018-06-03

    Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of

  17. Reduced Microbial Resilience after a 17-Year Climate Gradient Transplant Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailey, V. L.; Fansler, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Liu, C.; Smith, J. L.; Bolton, H.

    2012-12-01

    In 1994, a reciprocal soil transplant experiment was initiated between two elevations (310 m, warmer and drier, and 844 m, cooler and wetter) on Rattlesnake Mountain in southeastern Washington, USA. The original experiment sought to detect whether the microbial and biochemical dynamics developed under cool, moist conditions would be destabilized under hot, dry conditions. In March 2012 we resampled the original transplanted soils, control cores transplanted in situ, and native soils from each elevation, to study longer-term changes in microbial community composition, soil C and N dynamics, and soil physical structure. These resampled cores were randomly assigned to climate-control chambers simulating the diurnal conditions at either the lower or upper sites. We monitored respiration over 100 days, and couple these data with biogeochemical analyses conducted at time-zero, and at the end of the experiment, to examine the consequences of long-term climate change on microbial C cycling under new environmental stresses. All soil types incubated respired more C while in the simulated hotter, drier climate compared with the cooler, moister condition, except for those that had been transplanted from the lower elevation to the upper elevation in 1994, which actually respired less when returned to this, their original climate. These soils also exhibited almost no temperature sensitivity (Q10=1.07, 13-33 °C). Soils incubated in the cooler, moister chamber had greater N-acetylglucosaminidase and β-glucosidase potentials, suggesting that while loss of C as carbon dioxide respiration is reduced under these conditions, internal cycling of C may be enhanced. Ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis was used to fingerprint the bacterial community of all of these soils to identify possible high-level shifts in community composition in the 0-5, 5-10, and deeper depths in these soils. These results suggest that climate change has significantly altered the C dynamics in these soils, and

  18. Rare, Intense, Big fires dominate the global tropics under drier conditions.

    PubMed

    Hantson, Stijn; Scheffer, Marten; Pueyo, Salvador; Xu, Chi; Lasslop, Gitta; van Nes, Egbert H; Holmgren, Milena; Mendelsohn, John

    2017-10-30

    Wildfires burn large parts of the tropics every year, shaping ecosystem structure and functioning. Yet the complex interplay between climate, vegetation and human factors that drives fire dynamics is still poorly understood. Here we show that on all continents, except Australia, tropical fire regimes change drastically as mean annual precipitation falls below 550 mm. While the frequency of fires decreases below this threshold, the size and intensity of wildfires rise sharply. This transition to a regime of Rare-Intense-Big fires (RIB-fires) corresponds to the relative disappearance of trees from the landscape. Most dry regions on the globe are projected to become substantially drier under global warming. Our findings suggest a global zone where this drying may have important implications for fire risks to society and ecosystem functioning.

  19. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  20. Comparative study on the muscular load of the arms using hair driers.

    PubMed

    Harada, H; Katsuura, T; Kikuchi, Y

    1995-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the muscular load of the arm when combing the hair using different "kuru-kuru" type of hair driers. Ten female students (20-24 years old) volunteered as subjects. Five combing patterns were conducted as follows: 1) comb outer layer of right side of hair using right hand, 2) comb outer layer of left side of hair using right hand, 3) comb inner layer of left side of hair using right hand, 4) comb outer layer of back hair using right hand, and 5) comb inner layer of right side of hair using left hand. Surface EMGs were recorded from M. flexor carpi ulnaris, M. brachioradialis, M. biceps brachii, M. triceps brachii, M. deltoideus and M. trapezius of both sides of body. Integrated EMGs (iEMGs) were used to evaluate muscular load for each of the seven different types of hair driers used. The relationship between iEMGs and weight, center of gravity, diameter, length, and circumference of each hair drier were examined. The weight of hair driers tended to be the effective factor on the muscular load. Muscular load also had a tendency to be affected by the shape of the grips. With regard to the hand size, the longer the thumb length, the smaller is the muscular load. It was suggested that a relatively large diameter of the bulb-shaped grip of the drier gave a smaller muscular load among the hair driers examined in the present experiment.

  1. Last interglacial plant macrofossils and climates from Ziegler Reservoir, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Strickland, Laura E.; Baker, Richard G.; Thompson, Robert S.; Miller, Dane M.

    2014-01-01

    Ninety plant macrofossil taxa from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site near Snowmass Village, Colorado, record environmental changes at high elevation (2705 m asl) in the Rocky Mountains during the Last Interglacial Period. Present-day vegetation is aspen forest (Populus tremuloides) intermixed with species of higher (Picea, Abies) and lower (Artemisia, Quercus) elevations. Stratigraphic units 4–13 contain montane forest taxa found near the site today and several species that today generally live at lower elevations within (Abies concolor, Lycopus americanus) and outside Colorado (Najas flexilis). These data suggest near-modern climatic conditions, with slightly warmer summer and winter temperatures. This montane forest period was succeeded by a shorter treeless interval (Unit 14) representing colder and/or drier conditions. In units 15–16, conifer trees reoccur but deciduous and herb taxa are lacking, suggesting a return to warmer conditions, although cooler than during the earlier forest period. Comparison of these inferred paleoclimatic changes with the site's geochronologic framework indicates that the lower interval of sustained warmth correlates with late MIS 6–early 5b (~ 138–94 ka), the cold interval with MIS 5b (~ 94–87 ka), and the uppermost cool assemblages with MIS 5a (~ 87–77 ka).

  2. Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy.

    PubMed

    Borland, Anne M; Wullschleger, Stan D; Weston, David J; Hartwell, James; Tuskan, Gerald A; Yang, Xiaohan; Cushman, John C

    2015-09-01

    Global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour-pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAM members of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. The introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Multiple climate drivers accelerate Arctic plant community senescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

    2015-12-01

    Alteration of seasonal phenology cues due to climate change has led to changes in the onset and duration of the growing season. While photoperiod often acts as an ultimate control on phenological events, recent studies have shown that environmental cues such as temperature and soil water content can modify the direction and rate of senescence processes. Warmer temperatures have resulted in an observed trend towards delayed senescence across temperate latitudes. However, Arctic regions are characterized by extreme seasonality and rapidly decreasing photoperiod, and consequently senescence may not shift as climate warms. We monitored the timing of Arctic plant community senescence for three years under the framework of an experimental manipulation that altered seasonal phenological cues through warming and earlier snowmelt. Alternative models of senescence were tested to determine if microclimate (air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture) or start of season phenology affect the timing and rate of community senescence. We found that all three microclimate predictors contributed to explaining variation in timing of senescence, suggesting that photoperiod is not the sole control on timing of senescence in Arctic plant communities. Rather, increased air and soil temperatures along with drier soil conditions, led to acceleration in the onset of senescence at a community level. Our data suggest that (1) multiple climate drivers predict timing of plant community senescence, and (2) climate change could result in a shorter peak season due to earlier onset of senescence, which would decrease the potential carbon uptake in moist acidic tundra.

  4. Late Cenozoic lacustrine and climatic environments at Tule Lake, northern Great Basin, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Platt, Bradbury J.

    1992-01-01

    Cores of lake sediment to a depth of 334 m in the town of Tulelake, Siskiyou County, northern California, document the late Cenozoic paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic history of the northwestern edge of the Great Basin. The cores have been dated by radiometric, tephrochronologic and paleomagnetic analyses. Lacustrine diatoms are abundant throughout the record and document a nearly continuous paleolimnologic history of the Tule Lake basin for the last 3 Myr. During most of this time, this basin (Tule Lake) was a relatively deep, extensive lake. Except for a drier (and cooler?) interval recorded by Fragilaria species about 2.4 Ma, the Pliocene is characterized by a dominance of planktonic Aulacoseira solida implying a warm monomictic lake under a climatic regime of low seasonality. Much of the Pleistocene is dominated by Stephanodiscus and Fragilaria species suggesting a cooler, often drier, and highly variable climate. Benthic diatoms typical of alkaline-enriched saline waters commonly appear after 1.0 Ma, and tephrochronology indicates slow deposition and possible hiatuses between about 0.6 and 0.2 Ma. The chronology of even-numbered oxygen isotope stages approximately matches fluctuations in the abundance of Fragilaria since 800 ka indicating that glacial periods were expressed as drier environments at Tule Lake. Glacial and interglacial environments since 150 ka were distinct from, and more variable than, those occurring earlier. The last full glacial period was very dry, but shortly thereafter Tule Lake became a deep, cool lacustrine system indicating a substantial increase in precipitation. Aulacoseira ambigua characterized the latest glacial and Holocene record of Tule Lake. Its distribution indicates that warmer and wetter climates began about 15 ka in this part of the Great Basin. Diatom concentration fluctuates at 41 000 year intervals between 3.0 and 2.5 Ma and at approximately 100 000 year intervals after 1.0 Ma. In the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene

  5. Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Romanovsky, V.E.

    2011-01-01

    In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (???500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (???5.3 kg C mg-2), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (???0.1 kg C mg-2). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ???3.3 kg C mg-2, whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1-2.2 kg C mg-2). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ???6.1 kg C mg-2, whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ???5.6 kg C mg-2. A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ???5.4 kg C mg-2. Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers

  6. Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

    2015-12-01

    Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes

  8. Western juniper and ponderosa pine ecotonal climate-growth relationships across landscape gradients in southern Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knutson, K.C.; Pyke, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    Forecasts of climate change for the Pacific northwestern United States predict warmer temperatures, increased winter precipitation, and drier summers. Prediction of forest growth responses to these climate fluctuations requires identification of climatic variables limiting tree growth, particularly at limits of free species distributions. We addressed this problem at the pine-woodland ecotone using tree-ring data for western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Loud.) from southern Oregon. Annual growth chronologies for 1950-2000 were developed for each species at 17 locations. Correlation and linear regression of climate-growth relationships revealed that radial growth in both species is highly dependent on October-June precipitation events that recharge growing season soil water. Mean annual radial growth for the nine driest years suggests that annual growth in both species is more sensitive to drought at lower elevations and sites with steeper slopes and sandy or rocky soils. Future increases in winter precipitation could increase productivity in both species at the pine-woodland ecotone. Growth responses, however, will also likely vary across landscape features, and our findings suggest that heightened sensitivity to future drought periods and increased temperatures in the two species will predominantly occur at lower elevation sites with poor water-holding capacities. ?? 2008 NRC.

  9. Transplantation of subalpine wood-pasture turfs along a natural climatic gradient reveals lower resistance of unwooded pastures to climate change compared to wooded ones.

    PubMed

    Gavazov, Konstantin; Spiegelberger, Thomas; Buttler, Alexandre

    2014-04-01

    Climate change could impact strongly on cold-adapted mountain ecosystems, but little is known about its interaction with traditional land-use practices. We used an altitudinal gradient to simulate a year-round warmer and drier climate for semi-natural subalpine grasslands across a landscape of contrasting land-use management. Turf mesocosms from three pasture-woodland land-use types-unwooded pasture, sparsely wooded pasture, and densely wooded pasture-spanning a gradient from high to low management intensity were transplanted downslope to test their resistance to two intensities of climate change. We found strong overall effects of intensive (+4 K) experimental climate change (i.e., warming and reduced precipitation) on plant community structure and function, while moderate (+2 K) climate change did not substantially affect the studied land-use types, thus indicating an ecosystem response threshold to moderate climate perturbation. The individual land-use types were affected differently under the +4 K scenario, with a 60% decrease in aboveground biomass (AGB) in unwooded pasture turfs, a 40% decrease in sparsely wooded pasture turfs, and none in densely wooded ones. Similarly, unwooded pasture turfs experienced a 30% loss of species, advanced (by 30 days) phenological development, and a mid-season senescence due to drought stress, while no such effects were recorded for the other land-use types. The observed contrasting effects of climate change across the pasture-woodland landscape have important implications for future decades. The reduced impact of climate change on wooded pastures as compared to unwooded ones should promote the sustainable land use of wooded pastures by maintaining low management intensity and a sparse forest canopy, which buffer the immediate impacts of climate change on herbaceous vegetation.

  10. Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

    2017-01-01

    Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

  11. Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert K.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; Cook, Edward; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Dietze, Michael C.; Hessl, Amy; Hubeny, J. Bradford; Jackson, Stephen T.; Marsicek, Jeremiah; McLachlan, Jason S.; Mock, Cary J.; Moore, David J. P.; Nichols, Jonathan M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Schaefer, Kevin; Trouet, Valerie; Umbanhowar, Charles; Williams, John W.; Yu, Zicheng

    2017-01-01

    Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks, including vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, are strongly influenced by multi-decadal to millennial-scale variations in climate that cannot be captured by instrumental climate observations. Paleoclimate information is therefore essential for understanding contemporary ecosystems and their potential trajectories under a variety of future climate conditions. With the exception of fossil pollen records, there are a limited number of northeastern US (NE US) paleoclimate archives that can provide constraints on its temperature and hydroclimate history. Moreover, the records that do exist have not been considered together. Tree-ring data indicate that the 20th century was one of the wettest of the past 500 years in the eastern US (Pederson et al., 2014), and lake-level records suggest it was one of the wettest in the Holocene (Newby et al., 2014); how such results compare with other available data remains unclear, however. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions are consistent with the long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE–1700 CE) evident in hemispheric-scale reconstructions, but hydroclimate reconstructions reveal new information, including an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. NE US paleo data suggest that conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly were warmer and drier than during the Little Ice Age, and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration over the past century of a longer-term wetting trend in the NE US, and coupled with the abrupt shift from a cooling trend to a warming trend from increased greenhouse gases, may have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate

  12. Effect of open air drying, LPG based drier and pretreatments on the quality of Indian gooseberry (aonla).

    PubMed

    Gudapaty, Pratibha; Indavarapu, Srinivas; Korwar, Girish R; Shankar, Arun Kumar; Adake, Ravi Kant V; Bandi, Venkateshwarlu; Kanchu, Srinivas Rao

    2010-10-01

    The aonla fruits (whole fruit, pricking, splits, segments) were subjected to pretreatments like blanching, osmotic dehydration with salt (2%) and sugar (40%) in different experiments before drying to obtain a product with better keeping quality. An LPG based drier (CRIDA drier) with capacity to dry 50 kg of fresh Indian gooseberry (aonla) was used. Nutritional quality and rehydration characteristics of CRIDA drier dried products were higher and free from contamination. Drying time was shortest for blanched and osmotically dehydrated segments dried in CRIDA drier and the product had better vitamin C retention, rehydration characteristics and sensory acceptability compared to sun or cabinet drier dried product. The additional expenditure spent on gas in CRIDA drier is compensated by reduced labour cost and higher price for the better quality product. Alternate energy sources like biogas and biomass can be used as fuel in the CRIDA drier.

  13. Vulnerability to forest loss through altered postfire recovery dynamics in a warming climate in the Klamath Mountains.

    PubMed

    Tepley, Alan J; Thompson, Jonathan R; Epstein, Howard E; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J

    2017-10-01

    In the context of ongoing climatic warming, certain landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to their fire regimes or their postfire forest recovery dynamics could bring about extensive forest loss, with associated effects on biodiversity and carbon-cycle feedbacks to climate change. Such concerns are particularly valid in the Klamath Region of northern California and southwestern Oregon, where severe fire initially converts montane conifer forests to systems dominated by broadleaf trees and shrubs. Conifers eventually overtop the competing vegetation, but until they do, these systems could be perpetuated by a cycle of reburning. To assess the vulnerability of conifer forests to increased fire activity and altered forest recovery dynamics in a warmer, drier climate, we characterized vegetation dynamics following severe fire in nine fire years over the last three decades across the climatic aridity gradient of montane conifer forests. Postfire conifer recruitment was limited to a narrow window, with 89% of recruitment in the first 4 years, and height growth tended to decrease as the lag between the fire year and the recruitment year increased. Growth reductions at longer lags were more pronounced at drier sites, where conifers comprised a smaller portion of live woody biomass. An interaction between seed-source availability and climatic aridity drove substantial variation in the density of regenerating conifers. With increasing climatic water deficit, higher propagule pressure (i.e., smaller patch sizes for high-severity fire) was needed to support a given conifer seedling density, which implies that projected future increases in aridity could limit postfire regeneration across a growing portion of the landscape. Under a more severe prospective warming scenario, by the end of the century more than half of the area currently capable of supporting montane conifer forest could become subject to minimal conifer regeneration in even

  14. Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

    PubMed

    Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-12-01

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Climate drives adaptive genetic responses associated with survival in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chaney, Lindsay; Richardson, Bryce A.; Germino, Matthew J.

    2017-01-01

    A genecological approach was used to explore genetic variation for survival in Artemisia tridentata(big sagebrush). Artemisia tridentata is a widespread and foundational shrub species in western North America. This species has become extremely fragmented, to the detriment of dependent wildlife, and efforts to restore it are now a land management priority. Common-garden experiments were established at three sites with seedlings from 55 source-populations. Populations included each of the three predominant subspecies, and cytotype variations. Survival was monitored for 5 years to assess differences in survival between gardens and populations. We found evidence of adaptive genetic variation for survival. Survival within gardens differed by source-population and a substantial proportion of this variation was explained by seed climate of origin. Plants from areas with the coldest winters had the highest levels of survival, while populations from warmer and drier sites had the lowest levels of survival. Survival was lowest, 36%, in the garden that was prone to the lowest minimum temperatures. These results suggest the importance of climatic driven genetic differences and their effect on survival. Understanding how genetic variation is arrayed across the landscape, and its association with climate can greatly enhance the success of restoration and conservation.

  16. Warmer and wetter 6000 years ago?

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Beck, W.

    1998-02-13

    The author discusses recent work on thermometer systems which can be used to study past climatic temperatures. The {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio of marine carbonates was originally expected to provide a definitive answer following its introduction. However this ratio has been shown to be a function of temperature and the isotope ratio in seawater, which has been seen to vary on glacial time scales. Recent work to link the {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio with the Sr/Ca ratio measurement in corals has shown promise to factor out some of this variability. One interpretation of recent work with 6000 yearmore » corals is that sea temperatures were 1.2{degrees}C warmer, and the extratropics should have been wetter. The authors discuss other interpretations, and additional work to validate the use of these types of thermometer systems.« less

  17. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

    PubMed

    Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

    2013-03-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  18. The climatic water balance in an ecological context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephenson, N. L.

    2011-12-01

    ; for example, a warmer, wetter environment will support a fundamentally different biota than the original cooler, drier environment. Thus, a sharp distinction must always be made between the effects of changing energy and water supplies, and the terms "wetter" and "drier" must be carefully defined in terms of AET and Deficit. An understanding of the relationships between the water balance and biotic patterns and processes in space -- particularly within the extreme topographic and edaphic complexity of mountain ranges -- provides a solid foundation for understanding and predicting the ecological effects of climatic changes in time. I will provide concrete examples, particularly from California's Sierra Nevada, with emphasis on cases in which predictions may deviate from intuitive expectations.

  19. Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Agne, Michelle C; Beedlow, Peter A; Shaw, David C; Woodruff, David R; Lee, E Henry; Cline, Steven P; Comeleo, Randy L

    2018-02-01

    Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

  20. Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, Jun; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter

    2016-01-01

    Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

  1. Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy: CAM engineering in trees

    DOE PAGES

    Borland, Anne M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.; ...

    2014-12-15

    We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. Onemore » approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.« less

  2. Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy: CAM engineering in trees

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Borland, Anne M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.

    We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. Onemore » approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.« less

  3. Short-term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

    2017-11-01

    While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ), the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V pmax ), and foliar dark respiration (R d ) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 and C 4 ), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well-watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C 3 species tending to preferentially accelerate CO 2 -limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C 4 species tending to preferentially accelerate light-limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. [Study on spray-drier preparation technology of weitai granules using orthogonal experiments].

    PubMed

    Qu, Cai-Hong; Yang, Li; Chen, Zhi-Liang

    2006-04-01

    To screen preparation technique in order to raise the end-product and economical efficiency of spray-drier preparation technology of weitai granules. Newly Fluid-bed-spray-drier-granulation technique was adoped and taken extracting technique, temperature of exit and entry and the matching of accessories as inspecting factors, two levels of each factors, end-product and the water content of semi-finished weitai granules as inspecting marker, the best preparation technique of weitai granules was screened by orthogonal desing. Among the 3 factors, the matching of accessories was most notalbe (P < 0.01), next was the temperature of exit and entry (P < 0.05). However, the extracting technique was of little importance (P > 0.05). The optimum spray-drier granulation technique of weitai granules is A3B1C3.

  5. Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Liming

    2016-01-01

    Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

  6. Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

    2017-04-01

    In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

  7. Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990–2009

    PubMed Central

    O’Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D. W.; Linke, Andrew M.; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate–conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (∼100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate–conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods. PMID:23090992

  8. Holocene Vegetation and Climate Shifts from Sutherland Fen, Black Rock Forest, New York - Plant Macrofossils, Charcoal, and Carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Guilderson, T.

    2008-12-01

    Sutherland Fen formed about 12,600 C-14 years ago (15,000 calendar years), the same time as adjacent Sutherland Pond and regional deglaciation. High-resolution (2 cm) analysis of the 3.2 m fen core indicates three major macrofossils zones indicative of climate shifts. These climate shifts were defined over fifty years ago through pollen stratigraphy of the regional northeastern US, but macrofossils provide new details concerning hydrological and ecological shifts. The lowest (SUB-1) dated to the late-glacial, is indicative of a shallow pond characterized by Najas, Nuphar, and Potamogeton seeds and containing Salix (willow) buds, a Rubus (berry) seed, and Picea glauca (white spruce) needles and sterigmata from the surrounding upland. Sedimention rates are highest in this boreal environmental zone. The overlying zone (SUB-2) beginning at 11,500 years ago (Holocene) indicates a continuing pond environment with aquatics such as Najas, Nuphar, and Brasenia, but Picea disappears and Pinus strobus (white pine) dominates the lower section of the zone. A warmer, drier climate produces sustained charcoal in the record at the Holocene boundary. Pinus strobus needles and seeds subsequently disappear and are replaced from 9000 to 7500 years ago by Pinus rigida (pitch pine), Betula populifolia/papyrifera (grey/paper birch), and emergent wetland plants such as Decodon, Cladium, and Cephalanthus, as well as Dulichium, Eleocharis, and Carex, suggesting a shallowing pond and a drier climate. Chara oospores indicate probably groundwater influx into the fen. About 4000 years ago, charcoal again is present. In the subsequent late Holocene a more acidic, moist, fen environment is characterized by Sphagnum, Rubus, Hypericum, Viola, Chamaedaphne, and Carex, though Brasenia and Potamogeton (pond indicators) are occasionally present. The continued presence of Sphagnum led to high carbon accumulation because of less decomposition. This increase in Sphagnum in recent millennia with aquatics

  9. Temperature and hydrology affect methane emissions from Prairie Pothole Wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bansal, Sheel; Tangen, Brian; Finocchiaro, Raymond

    2016-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in central North America consists of millions of depressional wetlands that each have considerable potential to emit methane (CH4). Changes in temperature and hydrology in the PPR from climate change may affect methane fluxes from these wetlands. To assess the potential effects of changes in climate on methane emissions, we examined the relationships between flux rates and temperature or water depth using six years of bi-weekly flux measurements during the snow-free period from six temporarily ponded and six permanently ponded wetlands in North Dakota, USA. Methane flux rates were among the highest reported for freshwater wetlands, and had considerable spatial and temporal variation. Methane flux rates increased with increasing temperature and water depth, and were especially high when conditions were warmer and wetter than average (163 ± 28 mg CH4 m−2 h−1) compared to warmer and drier (37 ± 7 mg CH4 m−2 h−1). Methane emission rates from permanent wetlands were less sensitive to changes in temperature and water depth compared to temporary wetlands, likely due to higher sulfate concentrations in permanent wetlands. While the predicted increase in temperature with climate change will likely increase methane emission rates from PPR wetlands, drier conditions could moderate these increases.

  10. A 500-year seasonally resolved δ18O and δ13C, layer thickness and calcite aspect record from a speleothem deposited in the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Allan, M.; Quinif, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, L. R.; Keppens, E.; Claeys, P.

    2015-06-01

    Speleothem δ18O and δ13C signals enable climate reconstructions at high resolution. However, scarce decadal and seasonally resolved speleothem records are often difficult to interpret in terms of climate due to the multitude of factors that affect the proxy signals. In this paper, a fast-growing (up to 2 mm yr-1) seasonally laminated speleothem from the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Belgium) is analyzed for its δ18O and δ13C values, layer thickness and changes in calcite aspect. The studied record covers the period between AD 2001 and 1479 as indicated by layer counting and confirmed by 20 U / Th ages. The Proserpine proxies are seasonally biased and document drier (and colder) winters on multidecadal scales. Higher δ13C signals reflect increased prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and lower soil activity during drier (and colder) winters. Thinner layers and darker calcite relate to slower growth and exist during drier (and colder) winter periods. Exceptionally dry (and cold) winter periods occur from 1565 to 1610, at 1730, from 1770 to 1800, from 1810 to 1860, and from 1880 to 1895 and correspond to exceptionally cold periods in historical and instrumental records as well as European winter temperature reconstructions. More relative climate variations, during which the four measured proxies vary independently and display lower amplitude variations, occur between 1479 and 1565, between 1610 and 1730, and between 1730 and 1770. The winters during the first and last periods are interpreted as relatively wetter (and warmer) and correspond to warmer periods in historical data and in winter temperature reconstructions in Europe. The winters in the period between 1610 and 1730 are interpreted as relatively drier (and cooler) and correspond to generally colder conditions in Europe. Interpretation of the seasonal variations in δ18O and δ13C signals differs from that on a decadal and multidecadal scale. Seasonal δ18O variations reflect cave air temperature variations and

  11. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  12. Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; Cook, Edward; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Dietze, Michael C.; Hessl, Amy; Hubeny, J. Bradford; Jackson, Stephen T.; Marsicek, Jeremiah; McLachlan, Jason; Mock, Cary J.; Moore, David J. P.; Nichols, Jonathan; Peteet, Dorothy; Schaefer, Kevin; Trouet, Valerie; Umbanhowar, Charles; Williams, John W.; Yu, Zicheng

    2017-10-01

    Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE-1700 CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750 CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

  13. Climatic History of the Northeastern United States During the Past 3000 Years

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; hide

    2017-01-01

    Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000BCE - 1700CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

  14. Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

    2017-12-01

    Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

  15. Solar drying and organoleptic characteristics of two tropical African fish species using improved low-cost solar driers.

    PubMed

    Mustapha, Moshood K; Ajibola, Taiye B; Salako, Abdulbashir F; Ademola, Sunmola K

    2014-05-01

    This study was done to evaluate the drying performance, efficiency, and effectiveness of five different types of improved low-cost solar driers in terms of moisture loss from two tropical African fish species Clarias gariepinus (African sharp tooth catfish) and Oreochromis niloticus (Nile tilapia) and testing the organoleptic characteristics of the dried samples. The driers used were made from plastic, aluminum, glass, glass with black igneous stone, and mosquito net, with traditional direct open-sun drying as a control. A significant (P < 0.05) decrease in weight resulting from moisture loss in the two fish species was observed in all the driers, with the highest reduction occurring in the glass drier containing black stone. The rate of weight loss was faster in the first 4 days of drying with black stone-inserted glass drier showing the fastest drying rate with a constant weight in C. gariepinus attained on the 11th day and in O. niloticus on the eighth day. The slowest drier was plastic where a constant weight of the species were recorded on and 13th day and 11th day, respectively. Volunteers were used to assess the organoleptic characteristics of the dried samples and they showed lowest acceptability for the open-sun drying, while samples from the glass drier containing black stone had the highest acceptability in terms of the taste, flavor, appearance, texture, odor, palatability, and shelf-life. The low-cost solar driers were effective found in removing water from the fish resulting in significant loss of weight and moisture. The highest drying time, efficient performance, drying effectiveness, and high acceptability of the organoleptic parameters of the dried products from the black stone-inserted glass drier were due to the ability of the glass and the black stone to retain, transmit, and radiate heat to the fish sample all the time (day and night). These low-cost driers are simple to construct, materials for its construction readily available, easy to

  16. Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

    2015-01-01

    Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

  17. Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

    2015-11-01

    Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

  18. Wicked Learning: Reflecting on "Learning to Be Drier"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Golding, Barry; Brown, Mike; Foley, Annette; Smith, Erica; Campbell, Coral; Schulz, Christine; Angwin, Jennifer; Grace, Lauri

    2009-01-01

    In this final, collaborative paper in the "Learning to be drier" edition, we reflect on and draw together some of the key threads from the diverse narratives in our four site papers from across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Our paper title, "Wicked learning", draws on a recent body literature (Rittel & Webber 1973)…

  19. Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

    PubMed

    Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

    2009-09-01

    Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

  20. Flash floods in small Alpine catchments in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hazardous meteorological and hydrological events in numerous mountainous areas. The mountain environment is becoming more and more important for urbanization and the tourism-based economy. Here we show new and innovative methodologies for assessing intensity and frequency of flash floods in small Alpine catchments, in South Tyrol (Italy), under climate change. This research is done within the STEEP STREAMS project, whereby we work closely with decision makers in Italian authorities, and the final goal is to provide them with clear guidelines on how to adapt current structural solutions for mitigating hazardous events under future climate conditions. To this end, we develop a coupled framework of weather generation (i.e. extrapolation of observations and trained with climate projections), time series disaggregation and hydrological modelling using the conceptual HBV model. One of the key challenges is the transfer of comparatively coarse RCM projections to small catchments, whose sizes range from only about 10km2 to 100km2. We examine different strategies to downscale the RCM data from e.g. the EURO-CORDEX dataset using our weather generator. The selected projections represent combinations of warmer, milder, drier and wetter conditions. In general, our main focus is to develop an improved understanding of the impact of the multiple sources of uncertainty in this modelling framework, and make these uncertainties tangible. The output of this study (i.e. discharge with a return period and associated uncertainty) will allow hydraulic and sediment transport modelling of flash floods and debris flows.

  1. Impact of the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century climate change on peatland vegetation dynamics in central and northern Alberta using a multi-proxy approach and high-resolution peat chronologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnan, Gabriel; van Bellen, Simon; Davies, Lauren; Froese, Duane; Garneau, Michelle; Mullan-Boudreau, Gillian; Zaccone, Claudio; Shotyk, William

    2018-04-01

    Northern boreal peatlands are major terrestrial sinks of organic carbon and these ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change, act as sensitive archives of past environmental change at various timescales. This study aims at understanding how the climate changes of the last 1000 years have affected peatland vegetation dynamics in the boreal region of Alberta in western Canada. Peat cores were collected from five bogs in the Fort McMurray region (56-57° N), at the southern limit of sporadic permafrost, and two in central Alberta (53° N and 55° N) outside the present-day limit of permafrost peatlands. The past changes in vegetation communities were reconstructed using detailed plant macrofossil analyses combined with high-resolution peat chronologies (14C, atmospheric bomb-pulse 14C, 210Pb and cryptotephras). Peat humification proxies (C/N, H/C, bulk density) and records of pH and ash content were also used to improve the interpretation of climate-related vegetation changes. Our study shows important changes in peatland vegetation and physical and chemical peat properties during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling period mainly from around 1700 CE and the subsequent climate warming of the 20th century. In some bogs, the plant macrofossils have recorded periods of permafrost aggradation during the LIA with drier surface conditions, increased peat humification and high abundance of ericaceous shrubs and black spruce (Picea mariana). The subsequent permafrost thaw was characterized by a short-term shift towards wetter conditions (Sphagnum sect. Cuspidata) and a decline in Picea mariana. Finally, a shift to a dominance of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia (mainly Sphagnum fuscum) occurred in all the bogs during the second half of the 20th century, indicating the establishment of dry ombrotrophic conditions under the recent warmer and drier climate conditions.

  2. Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

    2018-02-01

    This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

  3. Humic substances-part 7: the biogeochemistry of dissolved organic carbon and its interactions with climate change.

    PubMed

    Porcal, Petr; Koprivnjak, Jean-François; Molot, Lewis A; Dillon, Peter J

    2009-09-01

    production and loss of DOC as CO(2) from boreal lakes may also be affected by changing climate. Climate change is unlikely to be uniform spatially with some regions becoming wetter while others become drier. As a result, rates of change in DOC export and concentrations will vary regionally and the changes may be non-linear. Climate change models predict that higher temperatures are likely to occur over most of the boreal forests in North America, Europe, and Asia over the next century. Climate change is also expected to affect the severity and frequency of storm and drought events. Two general climate scenarios emerge with which to examine possible DOC trends: warmer and wetter or warmer and drier. Increasing temperature and hydrological changes (specifically, runoff) are likely to lead to changes in the quality and quantity of DOC export from terrestrial sources to rivers and lakes as well as changes in DOC processing rates in lakes. This will alter the quality and concentrations of DOC and its constituents as well as its interactions with trace metals and the availability of nutrients. In addition, export rates of nutrients and metals will also change in response to changing runoff. Processing of DOC within lakes may impact climate depending on the extent to which DOC is mineralized to dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and evaded to the atmosphere or settles as particulate organic carbon (POC) to bottom sediments and thereby remaining in the lake. The partitioning of DOC between sediments and the atmosphere is a function of pH. Decreased DOC concentrations may also limit the burial of sulfate, as FeS, in lake sediments, thereby contributing acidity to the water by increasing the formation of H(2)S. Under a warmer and drier scenario, if lake water levels fall, previously stored organic sediments may be exposed to greater aeration which would lead to greater CO(2) evasion to the atmosphere. The interaction of trace metals with DOC may be significantly altered by climate

  4. Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J.

    2018-03-01

    Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios.

  5. Abrupt Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains during the Last Glacial Interval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Housson, A. L.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, B.; Shen, C. C.; Baykara, O.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; McChesney, C. L.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding how the climate of the North American Great Plains may change in the future is of tremendous socioeconomic importance, yet the regional response to previous abrupt global climate events, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the last glacial interval, are poorly known. Here we present two absolutely dated (U/Th), partially replicated oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from calcite speleothems in central Texas (30° N, 98° W) that grew during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3) (31 to 49 ky BP). The study site experiences boreal spring and fall maxima in precipitation with rainfall moisture sourced almost exclusively from the Gulf of Mexico. The two samples exhibit reproducible δ18O means and variability during overlapping growth intervals. Weak correlations between paired oxygen and carbon isotopic values coupled with reproducible δ18O strongly suggest that dripwater δ18O and calcite formation temperatures are the primary drivers of speleothem δ18O variations through time. We interpret more depleted (enriched) δ18O values to reconstruct warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on observations of modern rainfall stable isotope variations at the study site. We find that warmer and wetter conditions in the Southern Plains are contemporaneous with MIS 3 DO interstadials, while cooler and more arid conditions prevail during stadials and Heinrich Events 4 and 5. Our results show a response opposite that of hydrologic reconstructions from the American Southwest, where wetter conditions occur with stadial conditions. Future work includes exploration of paleoclimate model results to examine potential mechanisms responsible for this opposite phasing. Our speleothem data indicate that further intensification of rainy seasons in the Southern Plains should not be ruled out as a response to anthropogenic global warming.

  6. Holocene geologic and climatic history around the Gulf of Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mann, D.H.; Crowell, A.L.; Hamilton, T.D.; Finney, B.P.

    1998-01-01

    Though not as dramatic as during the last Ice Age, pronounced climatic changes occurred in the northeastern Pacific over the last 10,000 years. Summers warmer and drier than today's accompanied a Hypsithermal interval between 9 and 6 ka. Subsequent Neoglaciation was marked by glacier expansion after 5-6 ka and the assembly of modern-type plant communities by 3-4 ka. The Neoglacial interval contained alternating cold and warm intervals, each lasting several hundred years to one millennium, and including both the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 900-1350) and the Little Ice Age (ca. AD 1350-1900). Salmon abundance fluctuated during the Little Ice Age in response to local glaciation and probably also to changes in the intensity of the Aleutian Low. Although poorly understood at present, climate fluctuations at all time scales were intimately connected with oceanographic changes in the North Pacific Ocean. The Gulf of Alaska region is tectonically highly active, resulting in a history of frequent geological catastrophes during the Holocene. Twelve to 14 major volcanic eruptions occurred since 12 ka. At intervals of 20-100 years, large earthquakes have raised and lowered sea level instantaneously by meters and generated destructive tsunamis. Sea level has often varied markedly between sites only 50-100 km apart due to tectonism and the isostatic effects of glacier fluctuations.

  7. Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac

  8. Comparison of CH4 Emission and CO2 Exchange Between 2013 and 2014 in a Subarctic Peatland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarizia, P. E.; Verbeke, B. A.; McCalley, C. K.; Werner, S. L.; Malhotra, A.; Burke, S. A.; Crill, P. M.; Varner, R. K.

    2014-12-01

    One of the major concerns with climate change is the potential feedback from the emission of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), from high latitude thawing organic soils. With increasing temperatures in Arctic regions, thawing permafrost palsas transition to wetter sedge-dominated wetlands, which account for 20-39% of global atmospheric CH4 burden. This rapid change in habitat raises the following question: how do CO2 exchange rates and CH4 emissions change along a gradient of permafrost thaw and what is the interannual variability in these fluxes? To address this question, we measured CO2 exchange, CH4 flux, vegetative type and vascular green area (VGA) along a thaw gradient during July of 2013 and 2014 in Stordalen Mire, Sweden. Environmental variables showed that 2013 and 2014 were climatically different; higher photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and measurements of water table level and temperature showed that 2014 was warmer and drier than 2013. Warmer conditions led to higher rates of respiration and gross primary productivity (GPP), with the largest increases observed in the palsa sites, likely due to an increase in mean temperature. Methane fluxes showed a less consistent response to climate differences between years, fluxes were higher in 2014 in the mostly inundated Eriophorum angustifolium dominated site and lower in the drier Sphagnum and Eriophorum vaginatum dominated sites. Results of this study highlight the need for accounting for interannual variability when predicting greenhouse gas emissions during permafrost thaw.

  9. Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

    2015-01-01

    Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

  10. The Golden Canopies (Infant Radiant Warmer)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    The cradle warmer is based on technology in heated transparent materials developed by Sierracin Corporation, Sylmar, California he original application was in heated faceplates for the pressure suit heated faceplates worn by pilots of an Air Force/NASA reconnaissance and weather research plane. Later, Sierracin advanced the technology for other applications, among them the cockpit windows of the NASA X-15 supersonic research vehicle and the helmet faceplates of Apollo astronauts. Adapting the technology to hospital needs, Sierracin teamed with Cavitron Corporation, Anaheim, California, which produces the cradle warmer and two other systems employing Sierracin's electrically-heated transparencies. Working to combat the infant mortality rate, hospitals are continually upgrading delivery room and nursery care techniques. Many have special procedures and equipment to protect infants during the "period of apprehension," the critical six to 12 hours after delivery. One such item of equipment is an aerospace spinoff called the Infant Radiant Warmer, a "golden canopy" which provides uniform, controlled warmth to the infant's cradle. Warmth is vitally important to all newborns, particularly premature babies; they lose heat more rapidly than adults because they have greater surface area in comparison with body mass.

  11. Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

    2011-01-01

    We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

  12. Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing

  13. Different sensitivities of snowpacks to warming in Mediterranean climate mountain areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Moreno, J. I.; Gascoin, S.; Herrero, J.; Sproles, E. A.; Pons, M.; Alonso-González, E.; Hanich, L.; Boudhar, A.; Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Sickman, J.; Pomeroy, J.

    2017-07-01

    In this study we quantified the sensitivity of snow to climate warming in selected mountain sites having a Mediterranean climate, including the Pyrenees in Spain and Andorra, the Sierra Nevada in Spain and California (USA), the Atlas in Morocco, and the Andes in Chile. Meteorological observations from high elevations were used to simulate the snow energy and mass balance (SEMB) and calculate its sensitivity to climate. Very different climate sensitivities were evident amongst the various sites. For example, reductions of 9%-19% and 6-28 days in the mean snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow duration, respectively, were found per °C increase. Simulated changes in precipitation (±20%) did not affect the sensitivities. The Andes and Atlas Mountains have a shallow and cold snowpack, and net radiation dominates the SEMB; and explains their relatively low sensitivity to climate warming. The Pyrenees and USA Sierra Nevada have a deeper and warmer snowpack, and sensible heat flux is more important in the SEMB; this explains the much greater sensitivities of these regions. Differences in sensitivity help explain why, in regions where climate models project relatively greater temperature increases and drier conditions by 2050 (such as the Spanish Sierra Nevada and the Moroccan Atlas Mountains), the decline in snow accumulation and duration is similar to other sites (such as the Pyrenees and the USA Sierra Nevada), where models project stable precipitation and more attenuated warming. The snowpack in the Andes (Chile) exhibited the lowest sensitivity to warming, and is expected to undergo only moderate change (a decrease of <12% in mean SWE, and a reduction of < 7 days in snow duration under RCP 4.5). Snow accumulation and duration in the other regions are projected to decrease substantially (a minimum of 40% in mean SWE and 15 days in snow duration) by 2050.

  14. Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

    PubMed

    Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

    2017-07-01

    How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will

  15. [Quality Improvement Project: Increasing the Rate of Proper Use of Infant Transferring Warmers].

    PubMed

    Huang, Hsiu-Yu; Fann, Guei-Ling

    2015-10-01

    Infant-transferring warmers provide a warm environment and emergency care facilities such ventilators for high-risk infants during transport. Accurate use of this warmer has been demonstrated to reduce rates of neonatal complications and increase rates of survival. This project found that, despite the complaints of nurses that warmers occasionally malfunctioned during the transfer process, warmer functions nearly always tested normal after use. Therefore, the researchers surveyed ward nurses to better understand the underlying reasons for these complaints. Results found that only 68.4% of those surveyed operated the warmer correctly. The reasons for improper use were analyzed and categorized as: Nurse-related factors - lack of warmer operating knowledge and experience in the clinic; System-related factors - lack of a standard operating procedure (SOP) and monitor/audit practices and an incomplete training protocol; Equipment-related factors - lack of an equipment preparation SOP and difficulties in setting the ventilator properly. The purpose of this project was to achieve a 100% rate of proper warmer use among nurses. Through continuous clinical education, we created a standard operating procedure for warmer operation, created a video and poster for warmer users, simplified the equipment preparation SOP, and periodically monitored and checked results. After the intervention, 100% of the nurses were able to use the warmers correctly. Additionally, the rate of satisfaction for nursing-warmer use among the participating nurses increased from 51.4% to 80.6%. This project effectively increased the rate for correctly using transferring warmers among participating nurses and improved the quality of medical care.

  16. Understanding hydro-climatic drivers of infectious diarrheal diseases in South Asia and their projected risks from regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasan, M. A.; Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Diarrheal diseases remain a major threat to global public health and are the second largest cause of death for children under the age of five. Cholera and Rotavirus diarrhea together comprise more than two-thirds of the diarrheal morbidity in South Asia. Recent studies have shown strong influences of hydrologic processes and climatic variabilities on the onset, intensity, and seasonality of the outbreaks of these diseases. However, our understanding of the propagation and manifestation of these diseases in a changing climate in vulnerable regions of the world are still limited. In this study, we build on our understanding of the role of the hydro-climatic drivers of diarrheal diseases in South Asia in recent decades to project the probable risks of the diseases in this century using the climate projection scenarios from dynamically downscaled climate models. To build the current model, we conducted a multivariate logistic regression assessment using 34 climate indices to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes over the seasonality of rotavirus and cholera over a South Asian country, Bangladesh. We utilize the availability of long and reliable time-series of cholera and rotavirus from Bangladesh and conducted a temporal and spatial analysis derived from both ground and satellite observations. For projecting the future risks of the diseases, we used five bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) results of the CMIP5 series under the RCP 4.5 scenario. Cholera risk shows a significantly higher rate of increase compared to Rotavirus in Bangladesh in the 21st century. As the disease is significantly influenced by extreme rainfall, majority projections showed a significant increase in flood-driven cholera risk. Most RCMs suggest a warmer winter in future years, suggesting reduced risk for Rotavirus. However, as the dryness of the climate is also highly correlated with rotavirus epidemics, the incremental risk of the disease due to drier winters would

  17. Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species.

    PubMed

    Frishkoff, Luke O; Karp, Daniel S; Flanders, Jon R; Zook, Jim; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Daily, Gretchen C; M'Gonigle, Leithen K

    2016-09-01

    Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  18. Climate and vegetation since the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) in a putative glacial refugium, northern Idaho, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herring, Erin M.; Gavin, Daniel G.

    2015-06-01

    There are very few terrestrial sediment records from North America that contain a nearly continuous sequence spanning from the Last Interglacial period to the present. We present stratigraphic records of pollen and several other proxies from a Carex-dominated wetland, Star Meadows, located 140 km south of the maximum extent of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet and near the current southern extent of interior mesic forests in northern Idaho. Many species in this region are disjunct by 160 km of arid steppe and dry forest from their more extensive distribution along the Pacific Northwest coast and may have survived in an interior refugium. The chronology for the upper 251 cm was determined by six radiocarbon dates and one tephra deposit, and the age of the remainder of the core (251-809 cm) was estimated by correlation with SPECMAP δ18O. Fluctuating water levels were inferred from alternating peat, biogenic silica, and aquatic pollen types. During MIS 5e the region was warmer and drier than today and was dominated by Pinus (likely Pinus contorta) mixed conifer forest surrounding a Carex meadow. A cool-moist climate (MIS 5b-5d) soon developed, and the site was inundated with deep water. Pollen indicated wetland vegetation (Betula glandulosa, Typhaceae, and Salix) developed around a lake with a Pseudotsuga/Larix and Picea forest on the surrounding slopes. During MIS 5a, a warmer climate supported a Pseudotsuga/Larix, Abies, and Picea forest on the surrounding hillsides and a Carex-dominated environment within a dry meadow. From MIS 4 to MIS 3, a cool and wet Pinus and Picea forest predominated. Water levels rose, enabling Nuphar to persist within a perennial lake while a sedge fen established along the lake margin. As climate transitioned into MIS 2, a cooler and drier climate supported a Pinus and Picea subalpine parkland, though water levels remained high enough to support Nuphar. During the Last Glacial Maximum the sediment was mainly silt and clay with high Artemisia and

  19. Climate change likely to favor shift toward warmer climate states of the Pliocene and Eocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burke, K. D.; Williams, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system is moving toward a state without precedent in the historical record. Various past climate states have been proposed as potential analogues or model systems for the coming decades, including the early to middle Holocene, the last interglacial, the middle Pliocene, and the early Eocene. However, until now, such comparisons have been qualitative. To compare these time periods to the projected climate states for the 21st and 22nd centuries, we conduct a climate similarity analysis using the standardized Euclidean distance metric (SED) and seasonal means of surface air temperature and precipitation. We make this future-to-past comparison using 30-year mean climatologies, for every decade between 2020 and 2280 AD (27 total comparisons). The list of past earth system states includes the historical period (1940-1970 AD), a pre-industrial control (ca. 1850), the middle Holocene (ca. 6 ka), the last glacial maximum (ca. 21 ka), the last interglacial (ca. 125 ka), the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma), and the early Eocene (ca. 50-55 Ma). To reduce uncertainties resulting from choice of earth system model, analyses are based on simulations from three earth system models (HadCM, CCSM, NASA/GISS Model-E), using in part experiments from PMIP2, PMIP3/CMIP5, EoMIP, and PlioMIP. Results are presented for two representative concentration pathways (RCP's 4.5, 8.5). By 2050 AD, the most common past climate analogue is sourced from the Pliocene for RCP 8.5, while by 2190 AD, the Eocene becomes the source of the most common past climate analogue. For RCP 4.5, in which radiative forcings stabilize this century, the Pliocene becomes the most important past climate analogue by 2100 AD. Low latitude climates are the first to most closely resemble these past earth warm periods. The mid-latitudes then follow this pattern by the end of the 22nd century. Although no past state of the earth system is a perfect analogue

  20. Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Ciais, Philippe; Babst, Flurin; Guo, Weichao; Zhang, Cicheng; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Pavelka, Marian; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Yongmei; Wang, Pei; Shi, Chunming; Ma, Yujun

    2018-01-01

    In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in-situ tree-ring records, eddy-covariance CO 2 and water flux measurements, and meta-analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep-rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco-hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    PubMed

    Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

    2015-12-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  3. Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos)

    PubMed Central

    Jezkova, Tereza; Jaeger, Jef R.; Oláh-Hemmings, Viktória; Jones, K. Bruce; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael A.; Mulcahy, Daniel G.; Riddle, Brett R.

    2015-01-01

    During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change. PMID:27231410

  4. Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard (Phrynosoma platyrhinos).

    PubMed

    Jezkova, Tereza; Jaeger, Jef R; Oláh-Hemmings, Viktória; Jones, K Bruce; Lara-Resendiz, Rafael A; Mulcahy, Daniel G; Riddle, Brett R

    2016-05-01

    During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions - niches - to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard ( Phrynosoma platyrhinos ), a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post-LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.

  5. Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures.

    PubMed

    Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla M

    2018-06-07

    Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT MAX ) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT MAX and egg-to-adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26-28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT MAX . Although small shifts in CT MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  6. A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

    2012-05-01

    Eskers in the Dorsa Argentea Formation imply the presence of an ice sheet with a wet bed. With an ice sheet model, we examine a range of geothermal heat fluxes and warmer climates to determine what conditions could produce such an ice sheet.

  7. Plant establishment on unirrigated green roof modules in a subtropical climate

    PubMed Central

    Dvorak, Bruce D.; Volder, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    Background and aims The application of green roof technology has become more common in the central, northwestern and eastern USA, and is now being employed across the southern USA as well. However, there is little research in the literature that evaluated plant survival on unirrigated green roofs in subtropical climates that experience frequent drought and heat stress. Here, we summarize the results of a study of plant establishment on a modular green roof in south-central Texas. Methodology Fifteen plant species were field tested in 11.4-cm-deep green roof modules on a four-storey building in College Station, Texas, with irrigation limited to the first several weeks of establishment. Climate data, plant growth and species survival were measured over three growing seasons. Principal results Four species survived growing seasons without any losses: Graptopetalum paraguayense, Malephora lutea, Manfreda maculosa and Phemeranthus calycinus. Six species experienced varying levels of mortality: Bulbine frutescens, Delosperma cooperi, Lampranthus spectabilis, Sedum kamtschaticum, Sedum mexicanum and Nassella tenuissima. Five species had no survivors: Dichondra argentea, Stemodia lanata, Myoporum parvifolium, Sedum moranense and Sedum tetractinum. Conclusions The establishment and survival of several plant species without any mortality suggests that irrigation limited to the first few weeks after planting may be an effective approach on green roofs in spite of the more challenging climatic conditions in the southern USA. Since the climate in south-central Texas had been consistently drier and warmer than normal during the study period, longer-term research on these species is recommended to expand knowledge of establishment requirements for these species under a wider range of conditions, including wetter than normal years.

  8. Consumption of atmospheric methane by tundra soils

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, S. C.; Reeburgh, W. S.

    1990-01-01

    The results of field and laboratory experiments on methane consumption by tundra soils are reported. For methane concentrations ranging from below to well above ambient, moist soils are found to consume methane rapidly; in nonwaterlogged soils, equilibration with atmospheric methane is fast relative to microbial oxidation. It is concluded that lowering of the water table in tundra as a resulting from a warmer, drier climate will decrease methane fluxes and could cause these areas to provide negative feedback for atmospheric methane.

  9. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling.

    PubMed

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate. © 2017 John

  10. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  11. Climate niches of milkweeds with plesiomorphic traits (Secamonoideae; Apocynaceae) and the milkweed sister group link ancient African climates and floral evolution.

    PubMed

    Livshultz, Tatyana; Mead, Jerry V; Goyder, David J; Brannin, Michelle

    2011-12-01

    Climate change that increases mortality of plants and pollinators can create mate-finding Allee effects and thus act as a strong selective force on floral morphology. Milkweeds (Secamonoideae and Asclepiadoideae; Apocynaceae) are typically small plants of seasonally dry habitats, with pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency. Their sister group (tribe Baisseeae and Dewevrella) is mostly comprised of giant lianas of African rainforests, with pollen in monads. Comparison of the two groups motivated a new hypothesis: milkweeds evolved in the context of African aridification and the shifting of rainforest to dry forest. Pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency may have been adaptations that alleviated mate-finding Allee effects generated by high mortality during droughts. We formally tested whether milkweeds have a drier climate niche by comparing milkweeds with plesiomorphic traits (Secamonoideae) and the milkweed sister group in continental Africa. We georeferenced specimens of the milkweed sister group and Secamonoideae in continental Africa, extracted 19 climatic variables from the Worldclim model, conducted factor analysis to identify correlated suites of variables, and compared the frequency distributions of the two lineages relative to each factor. The distributions of Secamonoideae and the milkweed sister group differed significantly relative to four factors, each correlated with a distinct suite of climate parameters: (1) air temperature (Secamonoideae: cooler), (2) total and (3) summer precipitation (Secamonoideae: drier), and (4) temperature seasonality and isothermality (Secamonoideae: more seasonal and less isothermal). Secamonoideae in continental Africa inhabit drier, cooler sites than do the milkweed sister group, consistent with a shift from rainforests to dry forests in a cooling climate.

  12. Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

    2014-12-01

    While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased water-use efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

  13. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  14. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  15. Effects of wildfire and permafrost on soil organic matter and soil climate in interior Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harden, J.W.; Manies, K.L.; Turetsky, M.R.; Neff, J.C.

    2006-01-01

    The influence of discontinuous permafrost on ground-fuel storage, combustion losses, and postfire soil climates was examined after a wildfire near Delta Junction, AK in July 1999. At this site, we sampled soils from a four-way site comparison of burning (burned and unburned) and permafrost (permafrost and nonpermafrost). Soil organic layers (which comprise ground-fuel storage) were thicker in permafrost than nonpermafrost soils both in burned and unburned sites. While we expected fire severity to be greater in the drier site (without permafrost), combustion losses were not significantly different between the two burned sites. Overall, permafrost and burning had significant effects on physical soil variables. Most notably, unburned permafrost sites with the thickest organic mats consistently had the coldest temperatures and wettest mineral soil, while soils in the burned nonpermafrost sites were warmer and drier than the other soils. For every centimeter of organic mat thickness, temperature at 5cm depth was about 0.5??C cooler during summer months. We propose that organic soil layers determine to a large extent the physical and thermal setting for variations in vegetation, decomposition, and carbon balance across these landscapes. In particular, the deep organic layers maintain the legacies of thermal and nutrient cycling governed by fire and revegetation. We further propose that the thermal influence of deep organic soil layers may be an underlying mechanism responsible for large regional patterns of burning and regrowth, detected in fractal analyses of burn frequency and area. Thus, fractal geometry can potentially be used to analyze changes in state of these fire prone systems. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

    PubMed

    Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

    2017-07-01

    The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Facilitating climate change assessments by providing easy access to data and decision-support tools on-line

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachelet, D. M.

    2012-12-01

    Public land managers are under increasing pressure to consider the potential impacts of climate change but they often lack access to the necessary scientific information and the support to interpret projections. Over 27% of the United States land area are designated as protected areas (e.g. National Parks and Wilderness Areas) including 76,900,000 ha of National Forests areas for which management plans need to be revised to prepare for climate change. Projections of warmer drier conditions raise concerns about extended summer drought, increased fire risks and potential pest/insect outbreaks threatening the carbon sequestration potential of the region as well as late summer water availability. Downscaled climate projections, soil vulnerability indices, and simulated climate change impacts on vegetation cover, fire frequency, carbon stocks, as well as species range shifts, have been uploaded in databasin.org to provide easy access to documented information that can be displayed, shared, and freely manipulated on line. We have uploaded NARCCAP scenarios and provided animations and time series display to look at regional and temporal trends in climate projections. We have uploaded simulation results of vegetation shifts from the global scale to local national parks and shared results with concerned managers. We have used combinations of vegetation models and niche models to evaluate wildlife resilience to future conditions. We have designed fuzzy logic models for ecological assessment projects and made them available on the Data Basin web site. We describe how we have used all this information to quantify climate change vulnerability for a variety of ecosystems, developing new web tools to provide comparative summaries of the various types of spatial and temporal data available for different regions.

  18. Climate Effects on Corn Yield in Missouri(.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Qi; Buyanovsky, Gregory

    2003-11-01

    Understanding climate effects on crop yield has been a continuous endeavor aiming at improving farming technology and management strategy, minimizing negative climate effects, and maximizing positive climate effects on yield. Many studies have examined climate effects on corn yield in different regions of the United States. However, most of those studies used yield and climate records that were shorter than 10 years and were for different years and localities. Although results of those studies showed various influences of climate on corn yield, they could be time specific and have been difficult to use for deriving a comprehensive understanding of climate effects on corn yield. In this study, climate effects on corn yield in central Missouri are examined using unique long-term (1895 1998) datasets of both corn yield and climate. Major results show that the climate effects on corn yield can only be explained by within-season variations in rainfall and temperature and cannot be distinguished by average growing-season conditions. Moreover, the growing-season distributions of rainfall and temperature for high-yield years are characterized by less rainfall and warmer temperature in the planting period, a rapid increase in rainfall, and more rainfall and warmer temperatures during germination and emergence. More rainfall and cooler-than-average temperatures are key features in the anthesis and kernel-filling periods from June through August, followed by less rainfall and warmer temperatures during the September and early October ripening time. Opposite variations in rainfall and temperature in the growing season correspond to low yield. Potential applications of these results in understanding how climate change may affect corn yield in the region also are discussed.

  19. Pollen record of the mid- to late-Holocene centennial climate change on the East coast of South Korea and its influential factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Bing; Yi, Sangheon; Jia, Hongjuan; Nahm, Wook-Hyun; Kim, Jin-Cheul; Lim, Jaesoo; Lee, Jin-Young; Sha, Longbin; Mao, Limi; Yang, Zhongyong; Nakanishi, Toshimichi; Hong, Wan; Li, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    To understand historical climate change in western Pacific coastal areas, a sediment core (SOJ-2) from the stable sedimentary environment of the Songjiho Lagoon on the east coast of South Korea was obtained for centennial-resolution palynological analysis. The ages of the SOJ-2 core is well controlled by carbon 14 dating with high-resolution accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS), and the results indicated a general warm to cold climate trend from the mid-Holocene to the present, which can be divided into two different stages: a warmer stage between 6842 and 1297 cal yr BP and a colder stage from 1297 cal yr BP to the present, with fluctuations during these stages. The climate was wetter from 6842 to 6227 cal yr BP and 4520 to 1297 cal yr BP and was drier from 6227 to 4520 cal yr BP. The climate changed to cold and dry during the period from 1297-425 cal yr BP. The impact of human activity on the climate began at approximately 1297 cal yr BP and became pronounced starting in 425 cal yr BP. The general cooling trend may represent a response to decreasing solar insolation; however, the relative dryness or wetness of the climate may have been co-determined by westerlies and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The climate had a teleconnection with the North Atlantic region, resulting from changes in solar activity. Nevertheless, EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity played an important role in impacting the EASM changes in western Pacific coastal areas.

  20. Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2010-12-01

    Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the

  1. Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

    2007-12-01

    Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Increased resource partitioning, likely mostly through spatial complementarity, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

  2. Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Pyne, Matthew I; Poff, N LeRoy

    2017-01-01

    Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to

  3. Bill size variation in northern cardinals associated with anthropogenic drivers across North America.

    PubMed

    Miller, Colleen R; Latimer, Christopher E; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

    2018-05-01

    Allen's rule predicts that homeotherms inhabiting cooler climates will have smaller appendages, while those inhabiting warmer climates will have larger appendages relative to body size. Birds' bills tend to be larger at lower latitudes, but few studies have tested whether modern climate change and urbanization affect bill size. Our study explored whether bill size in a wide-ranging bird would be larger in warmer, drier regions and increase with rising temperatures. Furthermore, we predicted that bill size would be larger in densely populated areas, due to urban heat island effects and the higher concentration of supplementary foods. Using measurements from 605 museum specimens, we explored the effects of climate and housing density on northern cardinal bill size over an 85-year period across the Linnaean subspecies' range. We quantified the geographic relationships between bill surface area, housing density, and minimum temperature using linear mixed effect models and geographically weighted regression. We then tested whether bill surface area changed due to housing density and temperature in three subregions (Chicago, IL., Washington, D.C., and Ithaca, NY). Across North America, cardinals occupying drier regions had larger bills, a pattern strongest in males. This relationship was mediated by temperature such that birds in warm, dry areas had larger bills than those in cool, dry areas. Over time, female cardinals' bill size increased with warming temperatures in Washington, D.C., and Ithaca. Bill size was smaller in developed areas of Chicago, but larger in Washington, D.C., while there was no pattern in Ithaca, NY. We found that climate and urbanization were strongly associated with bill size for a wide-ranging bird. These biogeographic relationships were characterized by sex-specific differences, varying relationships with housing density, and geographic variability. It is likely that anthropogenic pressures will continue to influence species, potentially

  4. Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

    PubMed

    Hurteau, Matthew D

    2017-01-01

    Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

  5. Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

  6. Geoengineering: Direct Mitigation of Climate Warming

    EPA Science Inventory

    For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge With the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) rising to levels unprecedented in the current glacial epoch, the earth’s climate system appears to be rapidly shifting into a warmer regime....

  7. Comparison of the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe at two points in time, spaced twenty-nine years apart: is climate variability of importance?

    PubMed

    Pedersen, Ulrik B; Karagiannis-Voules, Dimitrios-Alexios; Midzi, Nicholas; Mduluza, Tkafira; Mukaratirwa, Samson; Fensholt, Rasmus; Vennervald, Birgitte J; Kristensen, Thomas K; Vounatsou, Penelope; Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie

    2017-05-08

    Temperature, precipitation and humidity are known to be important factors for the development of schistosome parasites as well as their intermediate snail hosts. Climate therefore plays an important role in determining the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis and it is expected that climate change will alter distribution and transmission patterns. Reliable predictions of distribution changes and likely transmission scenarios are key to efficient schistosomiasis intervention-planning. However, it is often difficult to assess the direction and magnitude of the impact on schistosomiasis induced by climate change, as well as the temporal transferability and predictive accuracy of the models, as prevalence data is often only available from one point in time. We evaluated potential climate-induced changes on the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis in Zimbabwe using prevalence data from two points in time, 29 years apart; to our knowledge, this is the first study investigating this over such a long time period. We applied historical weather data and matched prevalence data of two schistosome species (Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni). For each time period studied, a Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted to a range of climatic, environmental and other potential risk factors to identify significant predictors that could help us to obtain spatially explicit schistosomiasis risk estimates for Zimbabwe. The observed general downward trend in schistosomiasis prevalence for Zimbabwe from 1981 and the period preceding a survey and control campaign in 2010 parallels a shift towards a drier and warmer climate. However, a statistically significant relationship between climate change and the change in prevalence could not be established.

  8. Global land moisture trends: drier in dry and wetter in wet over land.

    PubMed

    Feng, Huihui; Zhang, Mingyang

    2015-12-11

    The "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" (DGDWGW) paradigm is widely accepted in global moisture change. However, Greve et al. have declared that this paradigm has been overestimated. This controversy leaves a large gap in the understanding of the evolution of water-related processes. Here, we examine the global moisture trends using satellite soil moisture for the past 35 years (1979-2013). Our results support those of Greve et al., although there are quantitative differences. Generally, approximately 30% of global land has experienced robust moisture trends (22.16% have become drier, and 7.14% have become wetter). Only 15.12% of the land areas have followed the DGDWGW paradigm, whereas 7.77% have experienced the opposite trend. A new finding is that there is a significant "drier in dry, wetter in wet" (DIDWIW) trend paradigm; 52.69% of the drying trend occurred in arid regions, and 48.34% of the wetter trend occurred in the humid regions. Overall, 51.63% of the trends followed the DIDWIW paradigm, and 26.93% followed the opposite trend. We also identified the DGDWGW and DIDWIW paradigms in low precipitation-induced arid regions in which the dry soil led to an increasing sensible heat flux and temperature and subsequently potential evapotranspiration.

  9. Tree-ring anatomy and carbon isotope ratio show both direct and legacy effects of climate on bimodal xylem formation in Pinus pinea.

    PubMed

    Castagneri, Daniele; Battipaglia, Giovanna; von Arx, Georg; Pacheco, Arturo; Carrer, Marco

    2018-04-24

    Understanding how climate affects xylem formation is critical for predicting the impact of future conditions on tree growth and functioning in the Mediterranean region, which is expected to face warmer and drier conditions. However, mechanisms of growth response to climate at different temporal scales are still largely unknown, being complicated by separation between spring and autumn xylogenesis (bimodal temporal pattern) in most species such as Mediterranean pines. We investigated wood anatomical characteristics and carbon stable isotope composition in Mediterranean Pinus pinea L. along tree-ring series at intra-ring resolution to assess xylem formation processes and responses to intra-annual climate variability. Xylem anatomy was strongly related to environmental conditions occurring a few months before and during the growing season, but was not affected by summer drought. In particular, the lumen diameter of the first earlywood tracheids was related to winter precipitation, whereas the size of tracheids produced later was influenced by mid-spring precipitation. Diameter of latewood tracheids was associated with precipitation in mid-autumn. In contrast, tree-ring carbon isotope composition was mostly related to climate of the previous seasons. Earlywood was likely formed using both recently and formerly assimilated carbon, while latewood relied mostly on carbon accumulated many months prior to its formation. Our integrated approach provided new evidence on the short-term and carry-over effects of climate on the bimodal temporal xylem formation in P. pinea. Investigations on different variables and time scales are necessary to disentangle the complex climate influence on tree growth processes under Mediterranean conditions.

  10. Reduced Urban Heat Island intensity under warmer conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, Anna A.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zaitchik, Ben F.

    2018-06-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI), the tendency for urban areas to be hotter than rural regions, represents a significant health concern in summer as urban populations are exposed to elevated temperatures. A number of studies suggest that the UHI increases during warmer conditions, however there has been no investigation of this for a large ensemble of cities. Here we compare urban and rural temperatures in 54 US cities for 2000–2015 and show that the intensity of the Urban Heat Island, measured here as the differences in daily-minimum or daily-maximum temperatures between urban and rural stations or ΔT, in fact tends to decrease with increasing temperature in most cities (38/54). This holds when investigating daily variability, heat extremes, and variability across climate zones and is primarily driven by changes in rural areas. We relate this change to large-scale or synoptic weather conditions, and find that the lowest ΔT nights occur during moist weather conditions. We also find that warming cities have not experienced an increasing Urban Heat Island effect.

  11. [Allergic disease--pollen allergy and climate change].

    PubMed

    Sommer, Janne; Plaschke, Peter; Poulsen, Lars K

    2009-10-26

    Pollen allergy currently affects a fifth of the population. A warmer climate will lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. In addition, a warmer climate increases the risk of proliferation of new plants with well-known allergenic pollens like ragweed, plane tree and wall pellitory, which have not previously caused allergy in Denmark. The consequences will be more people with hay fever and pollen asthma, longer allergy seasons and an increase in the severity of symptoms, disease-related costs and demands on health care for diagnosis and treatment of more complex allergies.

  12. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  13. Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

    PubMed

    Adams, Rick A

    2010-08-01

    Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

  14. Past and Future Climate Change Impacts on Mountain Forests on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwörer, C.; Fisher, D. M.; Gavin, D. G.; Temperli, C.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Mountain forest composition and distribution is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift to higher elevations with climate change. However, warmer winters will also lead to an upward shift of the snowline and a decrease in snowpack at lower and intermediate elevations. In the mountain ranges of Western North America, snowpack plays an important role in providing additional moisture during the dry summer months. It is therefore unclear if the projected climate change will lead to a rise of subalpine forest due to a longer growing season or a contraction due to drought stress. Since forest succession processes take place over decades and centuries we use LandClim, a dynamic vegetation model, to assess the impact of climate change on mountain forests on the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA). As a reality check we first simulate vegetation dynamics since the last Ice Age and compare model output with paleobotanical data from five natural archives that span the topographic and climatic gradients on the Peninsula. LandClim produces realistic present-day species compositions with respect to elevation and precipitation gradients. Moreover, the simulations of forest dynamics for the last 16,000 years generally agree with the pollen and macrofossil data. We then simulated mountain forests under future climate projections. As a result, our model indicates drastic changes in species composition with a replacement of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) by more drought-resistant species such as subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). On the drier, eastern side of the Peninsula, the model even suggests a lowering of timberline due to insufficient moisture availability in shallow alpine soils. Our results have important implications for ecosystem managers and stress the urgency of climate change mitigation.

  15. Climatic warming and the future of bison as grazers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craine, Joseph M.; Towne, E. Gene; Miller, Mary; Fierer, Noah

    2015-11-01

    Climatic warming is likely to exacerbate nutritional stress and reduce weight gain in large mammalian herbivores by reducing plant nutritional quality. Yet accurate predictions of the effects of climatic warming on herbivores are limited by a poor understanding of how herbivore diet varies along climate gradients. We utilized DNA metabarcoding to reconstruct seasonal variation in the diet of North American bison (Bison bison) in two grasslands that differ in mean annual temperature by 6 °C. Here, we show that associated with greater nutritional stress in warmer climates, bison consistently consumed fewer graminoids and more shrubs and forbs, i.e. eudicots. Bison in the warmer grassland consumed a lower proportion of C3 grass, but not a greater proportion of C4 grass. Instead, bison diet in the warmer grassland had a greater proportion of N2-fixing eudicots, regularly comprising >60% of their protein intake in spring and fall. Although bison have been considered strict grazers, as climatic warming reduces grass protein concentrations, bison may have to attempt to compensate by grazing less and browsing more. Promotion of high-protein, palatable eudicots or increasing the protein concentrations of grasses will be critical to minimizing warming-imposed nutritional stress for bison and perhaps other large mammalian herbivores.

  16. Including the dynamic relationship between climatic variables and leaf area index in a hydrological model to improve streamflow prediction under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesemma, Z. K.; Wei, Y.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.

    2015-06-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is projected to enrich the atmosphere with carbon dioxide, change vegetation dynamics and influence the availability of water at the catchment scale. This study combines a nonlinear model for estimating changes in leaf area index (LAI) due to climatic fluctuations with the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model to improve catchment streamflow prediction under a changing climate. The combined model was applied to 13 gauged sub-catchments with different land cover types (crop, pasture and tree) in the Goulburn-Broken catchment, Australia, for the "Millennium Drought" (1997-2009) relative to the period 1983-1995, and for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) and two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5) which were compared with the baseline historical period of 1981-2010. This region was projected to be warmer and mostly drier in the future as predicted by 38 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) runs from 15 global climate models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios. The results showed that during the Millennium Drought there was about a 29.7-66.3 % reduction in mean annual runoff due to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. When drought-induced changes in LAI were included, smaller reductions in mean annual runoff of between 29.3 and 61.4 % were predicted. The proportional increase in runoff due to modeling LAI was 1.3-10.2 % relative to not including LAI. For projected climate change under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, ignoring the LAI response to changing climate could lead to a further reduction in mean annual runoff of between 2.3 and 27.7 % in the near-term (2021-2050) and 2.3 to 23.1 % later in the century (2071-2100) relative to modeling the dynamic response of LAI to precipitation and temperature changes. Similar results (near-term 2.5-25.9 % and end of century 2.6-24.2 %) were found for climate change under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

  17. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Nooten, Sabine S.; Andrew, Nigel R.; Hughes, Lesley

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure. PMID:24465827

  18. Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obermeier, W. A.; Lehnert, L. W.; Kammann, C. I.; Müller, C.; Grünhage, L.; Luterbacher, J.; Erbs, M.; Moser, G.; Seibert, R.; Yuan, N.; Bendix, J.

    2017-02-01

    The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of recent global climate change. The stimulation of plant photosynthesis due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) is widely assumed to increase the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants--the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CFE under future climates, including more frequent weather extremes, are controversial. Here we use data from 16 years of temperate grassland grown under `free-air carbon dioxide enrichment’ conditions to show that the CFE on above-ground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. The observed CFE was reduced or disappeared under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions when the forcing variable exceeded its intermediate regime. This is in contrast to predictions of an increased CO2 fertilization effect under drier and warmer conditions. Such extreme weather conditions are projected to occur more intensely and frequently under future climate scenarios. Consequently, current biogeochemical models might overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands and hence underestimate future atmospheric [CO2] increase.

  19. Nitrogenase activity by biological soil crusts in cold sagebrush steppe ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwabedissen, Stacy G.; Lohse, Kathleen A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Aho, Ken A.; Magnuson, Timothy S.

    2017-01-01

    In drylands worldwide, biological soil crusts (BSC) form a thin photosynthetic cover across landscapes, and provide vital benefits in terms of stabilizing soil and fixing nitrogen (N) and carbon (C). Numerous studies have examined the effects of climate and disturbance on BSC functions; however, few have characterized these responses in rolling BSCs typical of northern ecosystems in the Intermountain West, US. With temperature increases and shifts in precipitation projected, it is unclear how BSCs in this region will respond to climate change, and how the response could affect their capacity to perform key ecosystem functions, such as providing ‘new’ N through biological N2 fixation. To address this important knowledge gap, we examined nitrogenase activity (NA) associated with rolling BSCs along a climatic gradient in southwestern Idaho, US, and quantified how acetylene reduction rates changed as a function of climate, grazing (using exclosures), and shrub-canopy association. Results show that warmer, drier climates at lower elevations hosted greater cover of late successional BSC communities (e.g., mosses and lichens), and higher NA compared with colder, wetter climates at higher elevations. Highest NA (0.5–29.3 µmol C2H4 m−2 h−1) occurred during the early summer/spring, when water was more available than in late summer/autumn. Activity was strongly associated with soil characteristics including pH and ammonium concentrations suggesting these characteristics as potentially strong controls on NA in BSCs. The relationship between grazing and NA varied with elevation. Specifically, lower elevation sites had lower NA at grazed locations, whereas higher elevation sites had higher NA with grazing. At both low and high ends of the elevation gradient, shrub-canopy associated BSCs maintained two to three times higher NA compared to BSCs in the interspace among shrubs. Taken together, our findings indicate that the controls and rates of NA in BSCs vary

  20. Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreev, A.; Schirrmeister, L.; Tarasov, P.

    2009-04-01

    A number of permafrost sections dated by 14C, TL, IRSL, and 230U/Th were analysed for pollen. Pollen spectra suggest that wet grass-sedge tundra habitats dominated during an interstadial c. 200-170 ka ago. The climate was rather wet and cold. The pollen spectra reflect sparser grass-sedge vegetation cover during the Late Saalian stadial, c. 170-130 ka BP. Environmental conditions were much more severe compared with the previous interstadial. Open Poaceae and Artemisia communities dominated at the beginning of the Last Interglacial. Some shrubs (Alnus fruticosa, Salix, Betula nana) grew in more protected and wetter places. Climate was rather warm (similar to modern conditions)during this time. Shrub tundra with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana s.l. dominated in the area during the Eemian climatic optimum, when summer temperatures were 4-5°C higher than today. Early Weichselian pollen records reflect harsh environmental conditions; sparser vegetation (mostly grass and sedge communities) during this time. Middle Weichselian (Karginsky) Interstadial records with dominance of Cyperaceae and Poaceae with some Artemisia and Salix reflects tundra- and steppe-like associations with willow shrubs dominated the area. The climate was relatively moist and warm. A rather high content of algae colonies in the sediments indicates shallow water habitats (e.g. centres of ice wedge polygons). Dominance of Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, and Caryophyllaceae pollen with some other herbs is typical for the 40-32 ka BP (climatic optimum) old sediments when open herb dominated the area. High pollen concentrations reflect that dense grass-sedge dominated vegetation; presence of Salix is also characteristic. The records point to climate amelioration during the Middle Weichselian compared to the Early Weichselian. Climate conditions became colder and drier c. 30-26 ka BP. Pollen spectra reflect that sedge-grass-Artemisia with some Caryophyllaceae and Asteraceae dominated the vegetation

  1. Complex climatic and CO2 controls on net primary productivity of temperate dryland ecosystems over central Asia during 1980-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chi; Ren, Wei

    2017-09-01

    Central Asia covers a large land area of 5 × 106 km2 and has unique temperate dryland ecosystems, with over 80% of the world's temperate deserts, which has been experiencing dramatic warming and drought in the recent decades. How the temperate dryland responds to complex climate change, however, is still far from clear. This study quantitatively investigates terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in responses to temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 during 1980-2014, by using the Arid Ecosystem Model, which can realistically predict ecosystems' responses to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 according to model evaluation against 28 field experiments/observations. The simulation results show that unlike other middle-/high-latitude regions, NPP in central Asia declined by 10% (0.12 × 1015 g C) since the 1980s in response to a warmer and drier climate. The dryland's response to warming was weak, while its cropland was sensitive to the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the CFE was inhibited by the long-term drought from 1998 to 2008 and the positive effect of warming on photosynthesis was largely offset by the enhanced water deficit. The complex interactive effects among climate drivers, unique responses from diverse ecosystem types, and intensive and heterogeneous climatic changes led to highly complex NPP changing patterns in central Asia, of which 69% was dominated by precipitation variation and 20% and 9% was dominated by CO2 and temperature, respectively. The Turgay Plateau in northern Kazakhstan and southern Xinjiang in China are hot spots of NPP degradation in response to climate change during the past three decades and in the future.

  2. Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

    PubMed

    Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

    2017-02-01

    Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Spatial and temporal evolution of climatic factors and its impacts on potential evapotranspiration in Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China.

    PubMed

    Li, C; Wu, P T; Li, X L; Zhou, T W; Sun, S K; Wang, Y B; Luan, X B; Yu, X

    2017-07-01

    Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change, and correct forecasting of climate change is a great help to accurate allocation of irrigation water. The use of irrigation water is influenced by crop water demand and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) is a measure of the ability of the atmosphere to remove water from the surface through the processes of evaporation and transpiration, assuming no control on water supply. It plays an important role in assessing crop water requirements, regional dry-wet conditions, and other factors of water resource management. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution processes and characteristics of major meteorological parameters at 10 stations in the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi (LPNS). By using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening and the ArcGIS platform, the potential evapotranspiration of each station was quantified by using the Penman-Monteith equation, and the effects of climatic factors on potential evapotranspiration were assessed by analyzing the contribution rate and sensitivity of the climatic factors. The results showed that the climate in LPNS has become warmer and drier. In terms of the sensitivity of ET 0 to the variation of each climatic factor in LPNS, relative humidity (0.65) had the highest sensitivity, followed by daily maximum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, and daily minimum temperature (-0.05). In terms of the contribution rate of each factor to ET 0 , daily maximum temperature (5.16%) had the highest value, followed by daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, and wind speed (1.14%). This study provides a reference for the management of agricultural water resources and for countermeasures to climate change. According to the climate change and the characteristics of the study area, farmers in the region should increase irrigation to guarantee crop water demand. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  4. Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

    PubMed

    Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

    2015-10-01

    Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P < 0.0163) and on sites with relatively warmer and drier local climate (R² = 0.55, P < 0.0056). Volatility in the rate of change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P < 0.0256). Over multi-decadal to centennial timescales, forest compositional change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our

  5. Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

    2008-04-01

    Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

  6. Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. water supplies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Frederick, K.D.; Schwarz, G.E.

    1999-01-01

    A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.

  7. Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

    2014-12-01

    In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

  8. Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

    2018-03-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

  9. Empirical Estimation of Climate Impacts Under Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rising, J. A.; Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.

    2016-12-01

    Estimating the impacts of climate change requires a careful account of both the present levels of adaptation observed in different regions and the adaptive capacity those regions might show under climate change. To date, little empirical evidence on either of these components. We present a general approach for empirically estimating the impacts of climate change under both forms of adaptation, applied to the United States. We draw upon relationships between daily temperatures and impacts on mortality, agriculture, and crime, from the econometric climate impacts literature. These are estimated using year-to-year temperature variation within each location. The degree to which regions are vulnerable to high temperatures varies across the US, with warmer regions generally showing less vulnerability. As climate changes, cooler regions will adopt behaviors from warmer regions, such as greater use of air conditioning, and their impact relationships will change accordingly. The rate at which regions have adapted is estimated from changes in these relationships over recent decades. We use these results to model future changes in each US county. as they are exposed to warmer temperatures and adopt characteristics of currently warmer areas. We do this across a full range of climate and statistical uncertainty. The median degree to which adaptation alleviates impacts varies by sector, with 10% lower rates of temperature-induced crime, 15% lower yield losses to maize, to 80% lower rates of heat-related mortality. However, the uncertainty in adaptive capacity remains greater than these changes. Uncertainty in regional response relationships and the rate of adaptation dominate the uncertainty in our total result. We perform two thought experiments to explore the extreme potential for adaptation in light of this uncertainty. We replace the regional relationships with a uniform approach to complete temperature insensitivity, using the normal estimated rate of adaptation. We also

  10. Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world.

    PubMed

    Griffis, Timothy J; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M; Wood, Jeffrey D; Millet, Dylan B; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T; Turner, Peter A

    2017-11-07

    Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N 2 O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N 2 O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt-one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world-combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N 2 O emissions (316 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 to 585 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 ). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N 2 O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 , on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N 2 O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N 2 O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals. Published under the PNAS license.

  11. Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffis, Timothy J.; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M.; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Millet, Dylan B.; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T.; Turner, Peter A.

    2017-11-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt—one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world—combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1 to 585 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.

  12. Isotopic evidence for cooler and drier conditions in the tropical Andes during the last glacial stage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mora, Germán; Pratt, Lisa M.

    2001-06-01

    Documentation of paleoclimatic conditions during the last glacial stage in the tropical Andes is sparse despite the importance of understanding past climate changes in the tropics. To reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions in the alpine neotropics, we measured the oxygen (δ18O) and hydrogen (δD) isotopic composition of authigenic kaolinite within weathering profiles of the Bogota basin (Colombia) because of the strong dependence of isotopic values on both surface temperature and rainfall. While kaolinite isotope data from Holocene soils in the basin reflect modern mean annual temperature and mean weighted rainwater isotopic composition of the basin, kaolinite isotope data from paleosols developed during the last glacial stage suggest 6 ± 2 °C cooler temperatures. Moreover, the isotope data indicate higher isotopic values of paleorainwater, interpreted to reflect drier conditions. The combination of reduced rainfall, temperature, and pCO2 significantly affected the distribution of tropical montane flora during the last glacial stage.

  13. Climate-related genetic variation in drought-resistance of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii).

    PubMed

    Bansal, Sheel; Harrington, Constance A; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

    2015-02-01

    There is a general assumption that intraspecific populations originating from relatively arid climates will be better adapted to cope with the expected increase in drought from climate change. For ecologically and economically important species, more comprehensive, genecological studies that utilize large distributions of populations and direct measures of traits associated with drought-resistance are needed to empirically support this assumption because of the implications for the natural or assisted regeneration of species. We conducted a space-for-time substitution, common garden experiment with 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) growing at three test sites with distinct summer temperature and precipitation (referred to as 'cool/moist', 'moderate', or 'warm/dry') to test the hypotheses that (i) there is large genetic variation among populations and regions in traits associated with drought-resistance, (ii) the patterns of genetic variation are related to the native source-climate of each population, in particular with summer temperature and precipitation, (iii) the differences among populations and relationships with climate are stronger at the warm/dry test site owing to greater expression of drought-resistance traits (i.e., a genotype × environment interaction). During midsummer 2012, we measured the rate of water loss after stomatal closure (transpiration(min)), water deficit (% below turgid saturation), and specific leaf area (SLA, cm(2) g(-1)) on new growth of sapling branches. There was significant genetic variation in all plant traits, with populations originating from warmer and drier climates having greater drought-resistance (i.e., lower transpiration(min), water deficit and SLA), but these trends were most clearly expressed only at the warm/dry test site. Contrary to expectations, populations from cooler climates also had greater drought-resistance across all test sites. Multiple regression analysis indicated

  14. Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.

    PubMed

    Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M

    2014-12-15

    Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Adapting to climate change or to stakeholders?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Giannakis, Elias; Zoumides, Christos; Eliades, Marinos; Djuma, Hakan

    2015-04-01

    The Tamassos dam protects the Pedieos watershed in Cyprus against floods. The waterbody behind the dam serves as a new biodiversity and recreational resource. Water from the dam is also used for domestic water supply for nearby rural communities. However, this peaceful picture is threatened by climate change. Regional Climate Models indicate a drier and warmer Pedieos watershed in the near future (2020-2050). Interviews and meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders, for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for the Pedieos watershed, has created even more uncertainties than climate change. Environmental-minded stakeholders suggested to demolish the dam and to return the watershed to its natural state and the water to downstream ecosystems. Agricultural producers would also like to see the return of stream flows, such that they can divert or impound the water for groundwater recharge and subsequent irrigation. Community leaders similarly prefer stream flows for the recharge of the alluvial river aquifers, to allow them to abstract more groundwater for community water supply. Downstream authorities have different concerns. Here the usually dry river bed serves as the drainage of the urban agglomeration of the capital of Nicosia; and has been identified as an area of potentially significant flood risk for the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). The largest storm event in the upstream area in the recent past occurred in January 1989, before the construction of the dam. The runoff totalled 3.1 million m3 in one day and 4.4 million m3 in two days. Thus, part of the runoff would have flown straight through the spillway of the 2.8 million m3 dam reservoir. Average annual precipitation in the highly sloping, forested upstream area is 500 mm, while stream flows average 4.7 million m3/yr (1981-2001). This results in an average runoff coefficient of 19% for the 45-km2 upstream area. Past observations, climate change projections and hydrologic models

  16. In-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, under various flow conditions.

    PubMed

    Higashi, Midoriko; Yamaura, Ken; Matsubara, Yukie; Fukudome, Takuya; Hoka, Sumio

    2015-04-01

    Roller pump infusion devices are widely used for rapid infusion, and may be combined with separate warming devices. There may be instances however, where the pressures generated by the roller pump may not be compatible with the warming device. We assessed a commonly used roller pump in combination with a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, and found that it could generate pressures exceeding the HOTLINE® manufacturers specifications. This was of concern because the HOTLINE® manufacturer guideline states that not for use with pressure devices generating over 300 mmHg. Pressure greater than 300 mmHg may compromise the integrity of the HOTLINE® Fluid Warming Set. The aim of this study was to compare in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer at different infusion rates of a roller pump using various sizes of intravenous cannulae. The rapid infusion system comprised a 500 mL-normal saline bag, roller pump type infusion device, HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer (blood and fluid warmer system), and six different sizes of intravenous cannulae. In-line pressure was measured proximal to the HOTLINE® (pre-warmer) and proximal to the cannula (post-warmer), at flow rate of 50-160 mL/min. The in-line pressures increased significantly with increasing flow rate. The pre-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg when the flow rate was ≥120 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm length cannula, 130 with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 18-gauge, 48 mm cannula. However, they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18-gauge, 30 mm cannula and 16-gauge cannulae. The post-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg at the flow rate of 140 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, while they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18 and 16-gauge cannulae. The in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® could exceed 300 mmHg, depending on the flow rate and size and length of cannula. It is important to pay attention to the size and length of cannulae and flow rate to keep the maximum

  17. Pumps and warmers during amnioinfusion: is either necessary?

    PubMed

    Glantz, J C; Letteney, D L

    1996-01-01

    To determine if there is evidence from published reports that the use of infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion is beneficial. We identified all English-language amnioinfusion reports published since 1983 through Medline and references. Fourteen prospective papers with at least 40 subjects were identified. For the amnioinfusion and control groups in each study, odds ratios (OR) were calculated for cesarean delivery, fetal distress, meconium below the cords, low 5-minute Apgar score, and endometritis. Cumulative ORs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel inverse variance method. This process was repeated after separation into pump-gravity and warmed-unwarmed groups. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Amnioinfusion improved the ability of the fetus to tolerate labor (fetal distress OR 0.40), decreased the incidence of meconium below the cords (OR 0.16), and decreased the rate of cesarean delivery (OR 0.56). There were no demonstrable benefits associated with the use of warmers or pumps. In multiple regression analysis, infusion pumps were associated with a significantly increased risk of fetal distress (P = .01). The use of amnioinfusion is associated with a decreased risk of fetal distress, meconium below the cords, and cesarean delivery. To date, there is no demonstrable benefit using infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion.

  18. Warming climate may negatively affect native forest understory plant richness and composition by increasing invasions of non-native plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dovciak, M.; Wason, J. W., III; Frair, J.; Lesser, M.; Hurst, J.

    2016-12-01

    Warming climate is often expected to cause poleward and upslope migrations of native plant species and facilitate the spread of non-native plants, and thus affect the composition and diversity of forest understory plant communities. However, changing climate can often interact with other components of global environmental change, and especially so with land use, which often varies along extant climatic gradients making it more difficult to predict species and biodiversity responses to changing climate. We used large national databases (USDA FIA, NLCD, and PRISM) within GLM and NMDS analytical frameworks to study the effects of climate (temperature and precipitation), and land management (type, fragmentation, time since disturbance) on the diversity and composition of native and non-native plant species in forest understories across large geographical (environmental) gradients of the northeastern United States. We tested how non-native and native species diversity and composition responded to existing climate gradients and land-use drivers, and we approximated how changing climate may affect both native and non-native species composition and richness under different climate change scenarios (+1.5, 2, and 4.8 degrees C). Many understory forest plant communities already contain large proportions of non-native plants, particularly so in relatively warmer and drier areas, at lower elevations, and in areas with more substantial land-use histories. On the other hand, cooler and moister areas, higher elevations, and areas used predominantly for forestry or nature conservation (i.e., large contiguous forest cover) were characterized by a low proportion of non-native plant species in terms of both species cover and richness. In contrast to native plants, non-native plant richness was related positively to mean annual temperature and negatively to precipitation. Mountain areas appeared to serve as refugia for native forest understory species under the current climate, but

  19. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

    2017-01-01

    The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

  20. Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

    PubMed

    Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

    2015-09-01

    Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

  1. Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

    2015-01-01

    Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

  2. Retention performance of green roofs in three different climate regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sims, Andrew W.; Robinson, Clare E.; Smart, Charles C.; Voogt, James A.; Hay, Geoffrey J.; Lundholm, Jeremey T.; Powers, Brandon; O'Carroll, Denis M.

    2016-11-01

    Green roofs are becoming increasingly popular for moderating stormwater runoff in urban areas. This study investigated the impact different climates have on the retention performance of identical green roofs installed in London Ontario (humid continental), Calgary Alberta (semi-arid, continental), and Halifax Nova Scotia (humid, maritime). Drier climates were found to have greater percent cumulative stormwater retention with Calgary (67%) having significantly better percent retention than both London (48%) and Halifax (34%). However, over the same study period the green roof in London retained the greatest depth of stormwater (598 mm), followed by the green roof in Halifax (471 mm) and then Calgary (411 mm). The impact of climate was largest for medium sized storms where the antecedent moisture condition (AMC) at the beginning of a rainfall event governs retention performance. Importantly AMC was a very good predictor of stormwater retention, with similar retention at all three sites for a given AMC, emphasizing that AMC is a relevant indicator of retention performance in any climate. For large rainfall events (i.e., >45 mm) green roof average retention ranged between 16% and 29% in all cities. Overall, drier climates have superior retention due to lower AMC in the media. However, moderate and wet climates still provide substantial total volume reduction benefits.

  3. Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

    2018-01-01

    Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

  4. Drier Forest Composition Associated with Hydrologic Change in the Apalachicola River, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Darst, Melanie R.; Light, Helen M.

    2008-01-01

    Forests of the Apalachicola River floodplain had shorter flood durations, were drier in composition, and had 17 percent fewer trees in 2004 than in 1976. The change to drier forest composition is expected to continue for at least 80 more years. Floodplain drying was caused by large declines in river levels resulting from erosion of the river channel after 1954 and from decreased flows in spring and summer months since the 1970s. Water-level declines have been greatest at low and medium flows, which are the most common flows (occurring about 80 percent of the time). Water levels have remained relatively unchanged during large floods which continue to occur about three times per decade. A study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey compared temporal changes in hydrologic conditions, forest composition, forest characteristics, and individual species of trees, as well as estimated the potential for change in composition of floodplain forests in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River. The study was conducted with the cooperation of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and the Northwest Florida Water Management District. Forest composition and field observations from studies conducted in 1976-1984 (termed '1976 data') were used as baseline data for comparison with data from plots sampled in 2004-2006 ('2004 data'). Flood durations were shorter in all periods subsequent to 1923-1976. The periods of record used to calculate flood durations for forest data were subsets of the complete record available (1923-2004). At sampled plots in all forest types and reaches combined, flood durations changed an average of more than 70 percent toward the baseline flood duration of the next drier forest type. For all forest types, changes in flood durations toward the next drier type were greatest in the upper reach (95.9 percent) and least in the lower reach (42.0 percent). All forests are expected to be 38.2 percent drier in species composition by 2085, the year

  5. Increased frequency of ENSO-related hydroclimate extremes in a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Q.; Miao, C.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Global warming will likely alter surface warming in tropical Pacific regions, leading to changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics and an incresed frequency of extreme ENSO events. The ENSO-related climatic variation and associated impacts will likely be modified in a warmer climatic state. However, little is known about the effect of changes in ENSO teleconnections with regard to future dry and wet conditions over land around the globe, especially outside tropical regions. We used the model simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for different twenty-first-century emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to investigate the changes in the ENSO' teleconnection on dry/wet condition over global land. Our results show that 64.64% and 38.12% of 181 river basins studied are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of unusually wet/dry events forced by both ENSO phases under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The anomalous precipitation variability forced by ENSO events will be intensified through a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism over west North America, South America, central Asia, and west Asia. More than 850 million people are at risk of exposure to unusually dry/wet events. There is a potential increased risk of high-intensity dry/wet events, with an increase/decrease in the 50-year return level of SPI value for drying/wetting regions. These results have important implications for disaster evaluation and related policies and for appropriate engineering design.

  6. Aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities of Prairie-Pothole wetlands and lakes under a changed climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McLean, Kyle I.; Mushet, David M.; Renton, David A.; Stockwell, Craig A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities respond to changes in climate is important for biodiversity conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region and other wetland-rich landscapes. We sampled macroinvertebrate communities of 162 wetlands and lakes previously sampled from 1966 to 1976, a much drier period compared to our 2012–2013 sampling timeframe. To identify possible influences of a changed climate and predation pressures on macroinvertebrates, we compared two predictors of aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities: ponded-water dissolved-ion concentration and vertebrate-predator presence/abundance. Further, we make inferences of how macroinvertebrate communities were structured during the drier period when the range of dissolved-ion concentrations was much greater and fish occurrence in aquatic habitats was rare. We found that aquatic-macroinvertebrate community structure was influenced by dissolved-ion concentrations through a complex combination of direct and indirect relationships. Ion concentrations also influenced predator occurrence and abundance, which indirectly affected macroinvertebrate communities. It is important to consider both abiotic and biotic gradients when predicting how invertebrate communities will respond to climate change. Generally, in the wetlands and lakes we studied, freshening of ponded water resulted in more homogenous communities than occurred during a much drier period when salinity range among sites was greater.

  7. Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

    PubMed

    Durack, Paul J; Wijffels, Susan E; Matear, Richard J

    2012-04-27

    Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

  8. Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

  9. Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jingting; Ren, Wei; An, Pingli; Pan, Zhihua; Wang, Liwei; Dong, Zhiqiang; He, Di; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin

    2015-01-01

    It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming. PMID:26336098

  10. Federal climate change programs in the water-limited Southwest: intersection of mission, stakeholders and geography to build successful collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.; Reyes, J. J.; Langston, M. A.; Johnson, K.

    2016-12-01

    As one of the newest federal programs to emerge in response to climate change, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were established to assist farmers, ranchers and forest landowners in their adaptation and mitigation efforts under a changing climate. The Hubs' mission is to deliver science-based information and tools to agricultural and natural resource land managers, to enable climate-informed decision-making. By facilitating and transferring tools and knowledge, the Hubs also provide value to cooperative extension, land grant institutions, and USDA itself, especially in leveraging existing resource capacity. Various federal agencies (NOAA, USGS, USFWS) have also developed climate change coordination networks: RISAs, CSCs, and LCCs. These regionally-based federal networks can best operate in collaboration with one another. At their programmatic level, however, there are fundamental discrepancies in mission, stakeholder definition and geographic region. In this presentation, we seek to compare and contrast these divergent characteristics by identifying `hot spots' and `hot moments' where definitions, programs, or priorities may intersect due to place-based or event-based issues. The Southwest (SW) region of the United States, which presently operates under warm and dry conditions, is projected to become warmer and drier in the future. On-going drought conditions have presented an opportunity to maintain and build professional networks among these federal climate change coordination networks, as well as within USDA, to better understand impacts and respond to stakeholder needs. Projects in the Rio Grande River Valley and with Tribal nations highlight successful collaboration based on geography and common stakeholders, respectively. Aridity and water scarcity characterize the SW region and provide an overarching theme to better support adaptation and mitigation, as well as create opportunities for collaborative success.

  11. Responses of Crop Water Use Efficiency to Climate Change and Agronomic Measures in the Semiarid Area of Northern China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jingting; Ren, Wei; An, Pingli; Pan, Zhihua; Wang, Liwei; Dong, Zhiqiang; He, Di; Yang, Jia; Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin

    2015-01-01

    It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983-1999 and 2000-2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6-11.0% and 19.5-92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming.

  12. Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dybala, Kristen E.; Eadie, John M.; Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Herzog, Mark P.

    2013-01-01

    Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.

  13. Interactions of Vegetation and Climate: Remote Observations, Earth System Models, and the Amazon Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quetin, Gregory R.

    transitions in sign (greener when warmer or drier to greener when cooler or wetter) along an emergent line in climate space with a slope of about 59 mm/yr/°C, twice as steep as contours of aridity. The mismatch between these slopes is evidence at a global scale of the limitation of both water supply due to inefficiencies in plant access to rainfall, and plant physiological responses to atmospheric water demand. This empirical pattern can provide a functional constraint for process-based models, helping to improve predictions of the global-scale response of vegetation to a changing climate. In Chapter 2, we use observations of vegetation interaction with the physical environment to identify where ecosystem functioning is well simulated in an ensemble of Earth system models. We leverage this data-model comparison to hypothesize which physiological mechanisms--photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability--dominate the ecosystem response in places with different climates. The models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem function across climate space except for simulating generally lower leaf area during warmer years in places with hot wet climates. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to global warming, and feedbacks between vegetation and climate, are too strong in the models. Finally, models and observations share an abrupt threshold between dry regions and wet regions where strong positive vegetation response to precipitation falls to nearly zero in places receiving around 1000 mm/year. In Chapter 3, we investigate how ecoclimate interactions change

  14. Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

  15. Archaeobotanical evidence for climate as a driver of ecological community change across the anthropocene boundary.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Christopher J; Yahr, Rebecca; Belinchón, Rocío; Coppins, Brian J

    2014-07-01

    The biodiversity response to climate change is a major focus in conservation research and policy. Predictive models that are used to project the impact of climate change scenarios - such as bioclimatic envelope models - are widely applied and have come under severe scrutiny. Criticisms of such models have focussed on at least two problems. First, there is an assumption that climate is the primary driver of observed species distributions ('climatic equilibrium'), when other biogeographical controls are often reliably established. Second, a species' sensitivity to macroclimate may become less relevant when impacts are down-scaled to a local level, incorporating a modifying effect of species interactions structuring communities. This article examines the role of different drivers (climate, pollution and landscape habitat structure) in explaining spatial community variation for a widely applied bioindicator group: lichen epiphytes. To provide an analysis free of 'legacy effects' (e.g. formerly higher pollution loads), the study focused on hazel stems as a relatively short-lived and recently colonized substratum. For communities during the present day, climate is shown to interact with stem size/age as the most likely explanation of community composition, thus coupling a macroclimatic and community-scale effect. The position of present-day communities was projected into ordination space for eight sites in England and compared to the position of historical epiphyte communities from the same sites, reconstructed using preserved hazel wattles dating mainly to the 16th Century. This comparison of community structure for the late- to post-Mediaeval period, with the post-Industrial period, demonstrated a consistent shift among independent sites towards warmer and drier conditions, concurrent with the end of the Little Ice Age. Long-term temporal sensitivity of epiphyte communities to climate variation thus complements spatial community patterns. If more widely applied

  16. Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation

    Treesearch

    Anne Jefferson; Anne Nolin; Sarah Lewis; Christina Tague

    2008-01-01

    Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north-west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies....

  17. Directional Analysis of Sub-Antarctic Climate Change on South Georgia 1905-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakamoto Ferranti, Emma Jayne; Solera Garcia, Maria Angeles; Timmis, Roger James; Gerrard McKenna, Paul; Whyatt, James Duncan

    2010-05-01

    , (iii) sector 270-300° has warmer, drier returning polar maritime circulated from the Bellingshausen Sea and across the Andes, and (iv) sector 300-330° has warm, humid tropical maritime air from the South Atlantic High. Detailed climatologies are compared for 4 distinct time periods covering: glacier advance (1920-1951), glacier retreat (1951-82), the latest decade (2000-2009), and a reference period (1905-1982). The comparisons show how climate changes between periods are composed of alterations in (i) air-mass frequency from different sectors, and (ii) temperature and precipitation within sectors. The ability of directional analysis to explain climate-change processes is confirmed by comparing directional results for the periods of glacier advance and glacier retreat. Specifically, during the ‘advance' period the air masses came 20% more frequently from the 4 colder, southerly sectors and correspondingly less frequently from the 2 warmer, northerly sectors. Moreover, the temperature of air coming from each sector was 0.1-0.8°C cooler than during the ‘retreat' period. Further directional analysis will compare records from the latest decade with previous periods to investigate recent sub-polar climate change, and particularly any advected warming from the Antarctic Peninsula. Directional analysis and advection climatologies can be used to test climate model performance and to examine atmospheric processes under changing climates. Previous directional analyses in an upland region of northwest England have detected changes in its mid-latitude temperate climate that were masked by directionally unsorted data (Malby et al., 2007, Ferranti et al., 2009); the South Georgia study now shows how similar methods can give insights into sub-polar climate change. FERRANTI, E. J. S., WHYATT, J. D. & TIMMIS, R. J. (2009) Development and application of topographic descriptors for conditional analysis of rainfall. Atmospheric Science Letters, 10, 177-184. MALBY, A. R., WHYATT, J

  18. Net primary productivity of subalpine meadows in Yosemite National Park in relation to climate variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Peggy E.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Yee, Julie L.; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Cole, David N.; McDougald, Neil K.; Brooks, Matthew L.

    2013-01-01

    Subalpine meadows are some of the most ecologically important components of mountain landscapes, and primary productivity is important to the maintenance of meadow functions. Understanding how changes in primary productivity are associated with variability in moisture and temperature will become increasingly important with current and anticipated changes in climate. Our objective was to describe patterns and variability in aboveground live vascular plant biomass in relation to climatic factors. We harvested aboveground biomass at peak growth from four 64-m2 plots each in xeric, mesic, and hydric meadows annually from 1994 to 2000. Data from nearby weather stations provided independent variables of spring snow water content, snow-free date, and thawing degree days for a cumulative index of available energy. We assembled these climatic variables into a set of mixed effects analysis of covariance models to evaluate their relationships with annual aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and we used an information theoretic approach to compare the quality of fit among candidate models. ANPP in the xeric meadow was negatively related to snow water content and thawing degree days and in the mesic meadow was negatively related to snow water content. Relationships between ANPP and these 2 covariates in the hydric meadow were not significant. Increasing snow water content may limit ANPP in these meadows if anaerobic conditions delay microbial activity and nutrient availability. Increased thawing degree days may limit ANPP in xeric meadows by prematurely depleting soil moisture. Large within-year variation of ANPP in the hydric meadow limited sensitivity to the climatic variables. These relationships suggest that, under projected warmer and drier conditions, ANPP will increase in mesic meadows but remain unchanged in xeric meadows because declines associated with increased temperatures would offset the increases from decreased snow water content.

  19. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

    PubMed

    Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

    2015-02-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  20. The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients

    PubMed Central

    Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages. PMID:26091266

  1. The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

    PubMed

    Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

  2. Effects of Climate Change in the Water Balance of a Modified River Watershed System in Central Illinois

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honings, J.; Seyoum, W. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the response of water cycle dynamics to climate change and human activity is essential for best management of water resources. This study used the USDA Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to measure and predict major water balance variables including stream discharge, potential aquifer recharge, and surface storage in a small-scale watershed ( 2,930 km²) in Central Illinois. The Mackinaw River drains the study watershed, which is predominantly tile-drained agricultural land. Two reservoirs, Evergreen Lake and Lake Bloomington, and the Mahomet Aquifer in the watershed are used for public water supply. Tiles modify watershed hydrology by efficiently draining water from saturated soil to streams, which increases total streamflow and reduces direct aquifer recharge from precipitation. To assess how the watershed is affected by future climate change, this study used high-resolution climate projection data ( 12 km) in a calibrated and validated SWAT hydrologic model. Using General Circulation Models, four (4) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) developed by the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Fifth Assessment Report (CMIP5) were used for prediction of precipitation, mean, minimum, and maximum temperature for the watershed. Temperature predictions for 2050 were warmer for RCPs 2.6 and 8.0 (+0.69°C and +1.8°C), coinciding with increased precipitation rates (+2.5% and +4.3%). End of century projections indicate warmer mean temperatures (+0.66°C and +4.9°C) for RCPs 2.6 and 8.0. By 2099, precipitation predictions are wetter for RCP 8.0 (+10%), but drier for RCP 2.6 (-2%) from the baseline. Preliminary model calibration (R2 value = 0.7) results showed an annual average watershed yield of 32.8 m³/s at the outlet with average potential recharge of 18% of total precipitation. Tile flow comprises 10 to 30% of total flow in the watershed simulations. Predicted hydrologic variables for the extreme scenarios at mid- and end of century indicate

  3. Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, Andrew; Mathews, Adam J.; Holzapfel, Bruno P.

    2016-09-01

    Carbohydrates are accumulated within the perennial structure of grapevines when their production exceeds the requirements of reproduction and growth. The period between harvest and leaf-fall (the post-harvest period) is a key period for carbohydrate accumulation in relatively warmer grape-growing regions. The level of carbohydrate reserves available for utilisation in the following season has an important effect on canopy growth and yield potential and is therefore an important consideration in vineyard management. In a warming climate, the post-harvest period is lengthening and becoming warmer, evidenced through studies in wine regions worldwide that have correlated recent air temperature increases with changing grapevine phenology. Budbreak, flowering, veraison, and harvest have all been observed to be occurring earlier than in previous decades. Additionally, the final stage of the grapevine phenological cycle, leaf-fall, occurs later. This study explored the potential for increased post-harvest carbohydrate accumulation by modelling heat accumulation following harvest dates for the recent climate (1975-2004) and two warmer climate projections with mean temperature anomalies of +1.26 and +2.61 °C. Summaries of post-harvest heat accumulation between harvest and leaf-fall were produced for each of Australia's Geographical Indications (wine regions) to provide comparisons from the base temperatures to projected warmer conditions across a range of climates. The results indicate that for warmer conditions, all regions observe earlier occurring budbreak and harvest as well as increasing post-harvest growing degree days accumulation before leaf-fall. The level of increase varies depending upon starting climatic condition, with cooler regions experiencing the greatest change.

  4. Challenge theme 2: assuring water availability and quality in the 21st century: Chapter 4 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Callegary, James; Langeman, Jeff; Leenhouts, Jim; Martin, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Along the United States–Mexican border, the health of communities, economies, and ecosystems is inextricably intertwined with the availability and quality of water, but effective water management in the Borderlands is complicated. Water users compete for resources, and their needs are increasing. Managers are faced with issues such as finding a balance between agriculture and rapidly growing cities or maintaining public supplies while ensuring sufficient resources for aquatic ecosystems. In addition to human factors, the dry climate of the Borderlands, as compared to more temperate regions, also increases the challenge of balancing water supplies between humans and ecosystems. Warmer, drier, and more variable conditions across the southwestern United States—the projected results of climate change (Seager and others, 2007)—would further stress water supplies.

  5. Plasticity in hydraulic architecture of Scots pine across Eurasia.

    PubMed

    Poyatos, R; Martínez-Vilalta, J; Cermák, J; Ceulemans, R; Granier, A; Irvine, J; Köstner, B; Lagergren, F; Meiresonne, L; Nadezhdina, N; Zimmermann, R; Llorens, P; Mencuccini, M

    2007-08-01

    Widespread tree species must show physiological and structural plasticity to deal with contrasting water balance conditions. To investigate these plasticity mechanisms, a meta-analysis of Pinus sylvestris L. sap flow and its response to environmental variables was conducted using datasets from across its whole geographical range. For each site, a Jarvis-type, multiplicative model was used to fit the relationship between sap flow and photosynthetically active radiation, vapour pressure deficit (D) and soil moisture deficit (SMD); and a logarithmic function was used to characterize the response of stomatal conductance (G(s)) to D. The fitted parameters of those models were regressed against climatic variables to study the acclimation of Scots pine to dry/warm conditions. The absolute value of sap flow and its sensitivity to D and SMD increased with the average summer evaporative demand. However, relative sensitivity of G(s) to D (m/G (s,ref), where m is the slope and G(s,ref) is reference G(s) at D = 1 kPa) did not increase with evaporative demand across populations, and transpiration per unit leaf area at a given D increased accordingly in drier/warmer climates. This physiological plasticity was linked to the previously reported climate- and size-related structural acclimation of leaf to sapwood area ratios. G (s,ref), and its absolute sensitivity to D(m), tended to decrease with age/height of the trees as previously reported for other pine species. It is unclear why Scots pines have higher transpiration rates at drier/warmer sites, at the expense of lower water-use efficiency. In any case, our results suggest that these structural adjustments may not be enough to prevent lower xylem tensions at the driest sites.

  6. Climate change: Future rise in rain inequality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biasutti, Michela

    2013-05-01

    Rainfall disparities are expected to intensify in response to anthropogenic climate change. Model simulations suggest that wet regions and seasons will get wetter, and that a warmer equator will get wetter too.

  7. Tree-ring growth of Scots pine, Common beech and Pedunculate oak under future climate in northeastern Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jurasinski, Gerald; Scharnweber, Tobias; Schröder, Christian; Lennartz, Bernd; Bauwe, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus syl- vestris L.) at three pure stands, and for Common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested with a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R2s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates depending on the position along the climatic gradient. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that in Northeastern

  8. Assessing simulated ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    White, J.D.; Running, S.W.; Thornton, P.E.; Keane, R.E.; Ryan, K.C.; Fagre, D.B.; Key, C.H.

    1998-01-01

    Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses than involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter-cooler, drier-warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of a leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic

  9. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 1

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...

  10. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Intermountain Region [Part 2

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho; Natalie Little; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management on Federal lands in Nevada, Utah, southern Idaho, eastern California, and western Wyoming, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. U.S. Department of...

  11. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  12. Riparian plant composition along hydrologic gradients in a dryland river basin and implications for a warming climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Lindsay; Shafroth, Patrick B.

    2017-01-01

    Droughts in dryland regions on all continents are expected to increase in severity and duration under future climate projections. In dryland regions, it is likely that minimum streamflow will decrease with some perennial streams shifting to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in precipitation and runoff and increases in temperature. Decreasing base flow and shifting flow regimes from perennial to intermittent could have significant implications for stream-dependent biota, including riparian vegetation. In this study, we asked, how do riparian plant communities vary along wet-to-dry hydrologic gradients on small (first–third order) streams? We collected data on geomorphic, hydrologic, and plant community characteristics on 54 stream sites ranging in hydrology from intermittent to perennial flow across the Upper Colorado River Basin (284,898 km2). We found that plant communities varied along hydrologic gradients from high to low elevation between streams, and perennial to intermittent flow. We identified indicator species associated with different hydrologic conditions and suggest how plant communities may shift under warmer, drier conditions. Our results indicate that species richness and cover of total, perennial, wetland, and native plant groups will decrease while annual plants will increase under drying conditions. Understanding how plant communities respond to regional drivers such as hydroclimate requires broad-scale approaches such as sampling across whole river basins. With increasingly arid conditions in many regions of the globe, understanding plant community shifts is key to understanding the future of riparian ecosystems.

  13. Fire, Carbon and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A.

    2005-12-01

    Disturbances are the major stand-renewing agents for much of the circumboreal forest. In Canada, fire has received much of the attention in carbon cycle science because it affects about 3 million ha of Canadian forest annually, impacts air quality, and can threaten life, property and infrastructure. Fire affects the carbon balance through three processes. First, carbon and other greenhouse gases are emitted to the atmosphere during the combustion process. We estimate this to average about 27 Tg C/year in Canada over the past 40 years, which is close to 20% of industrial carbon emissions. However, in some years this can exceed 100 Tg C. Efforts are underway to estimate global fire activity and greenhouse gas emissions using observations, remote sensing and modelling. The second process is the decomposition of fire-killed vegetation. This forms a pool of coarse woody debris that can take decades to decompose, or can be quite rapid, depending on the post-fire environment. The third process is succession of vegetation following fire, a dynamic process that involves the interplay among species establishment and competition. Weather and climate affects all of these processes. Estimates of the future environment indicate that much of boreal Canada will experience warmer and drier conditions, although there will be regional differences and transient effects. The projections suggest that we may experience a doubling of area burned over the next century because of anthropogenic climate changes. This may have further implications to the global carbon budget by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. A run-away scenario is unlikely because young successional boreal vegetation often does not burn as readily and would limit the positive feedback cycle. Also, changes to the forest composition following fire increases surface albedo and alters the

  14. Climate change impairs processes of soil and plant N cycling in European beech forests on marginal soil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tejedor, Javier; Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Pole, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Simon, Judy; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Bilela, Silvija; Dannenmann, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Beech forests of Central Europe are covering large areas with marginal calcareous soils, but provide important ecological services and represent a significant economical value. The vulnerability of these ecosystems to projected climate conditions (higher temperatures, increase of extreme drought and precipitation events) is currently unclear. Here we present comprehensive data on the influence of climate change conditions on ecosystem performance, considering soil nitrogen biogeochemistry, soil microbiology, mycorrhiza ecology and plant physiology. We simultaneously quantified major plant and soil gross N turnover processes by homogenous triple 15N isotope labeling of intact beech natural regeneration-soil-microbe systems. This isotope approach was combined with a space for time climate change experiment, i.e. we transferred intact beech seedling-soil-microbe mesocosms from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Transfers within N slope served as controls. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed. Reduced soil water content resulted in a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB). Consequently, we found a massive five-fold reduction of gross nitrification in the climate change treatment and a subsequent strong decline in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech. Because nitrate was the major nutrient for beech in this forest type with little importance of ammonium and amino acids, this resulted in a strongly reduced performance of beech natural regeneration with reduced N content, N metabolite concentrations and plant biomass. These findings provided an explanation for a large-scale decline of distribution of beech forests on calcareous soils in Europe by almost 80% until 2080 predicted by statistical modeling. Hence, we

  15. The role of climate change in interpreting historical variability

    Treesearch

    Constance I. Millar; Wallace B. Woolfenden

    1999-01-01

    Significant climate anomalies have characterized the last 1000 yr in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Two warm, dry periods of 150- and 200-yr duration occurred during AD 900-1350, which were followed by anomalously cold climates, known as the Little Ice Age, that lasted from AD 1400 to 1900. Climate in the last century has been significantly warmer. Regional biotic...

  16. Penultimate Glacial-Interglacial Climate Variability in the Southern Great Plains of North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartow-Gillies, E.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, E. B.; Chou, Y. C.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; Shen, C. C.

    2017-12-01

    Projections of changes in rainfall under future warming scenarios vary in their sign and intensity over the Southern Great Plains (SGP). A scarcity of local paleoclimate information before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) limits our understanding of regional climate responses to changes in mean state and forcing. Here, we present absolutely U/Th-dated oxygen and carbon isotope records from a calcite stalagmite near Georgetown, Texas (30°N, 98°W), spanning 98 to 209 kyr before present (kyr BP). SGP moisture is primarily sourced from the Gulf of Mexico, and precipitation exhibits clear seasonality, with a biannual rainy season divided into late boreal spring and fall. We interpret the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmite to reflect changes in rainwater δ18O composition, as well as cave temperature, through time. There are no clear kinetic isotope effects observed within the stalagmite. More negative (positive) δ18O values are a reflection of warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on modern observations of rainwater δ18O at the study site. Variations in stalagmite δ13C may be driven by shifts in overlying vegetation type and changes in the rates of karst flow and prior calcite precipitation. The stalagmite records include Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, an interval where global temperatures may have been as much as 2°C warmer and sea level 4-6 m higher than present. Thus, our δ18O record provides context of unique importance for how SGP hydroclimate may respond to future warming. Prominent features in the δ18O record, including a warm and wet MIS 5e appear to be paced by precession, with the timing of δ18O minima (maxima) broadly consistent with that of maxima (minima) in monthly insolation at 30°N. The δ13C record exhibits a striking similarity to canonical, sawtooth records of glacial-interglacial variability, which suggests Great Plains vegetation communities may be sensitive to the status of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Our SGP

  17. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tucker, Compton J.; Yager, Karina; Anyamba, Assaf; Linthicum, Kenneth J.

    2011-01-01

    Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to

  18. Energy metabolism and substrate utilization in low birth weight neonates under radiant warmers.

    PubMed

    Marks, K H; Nardis, E E; Momin, M N

    1986-09-01

    We evaluated the metabolic response to the thermal demands of an open radiant warmer device, as distinct from convection incubator, in 13 healthy premature infants (1.395 +/- 169 g, 28 +/- 12 days of age, mean +/- SD). Metabolic rate was 10% higher for infants under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (2.60 +/- 0.4 v 2.36 +/- 0.3 kcal/kg/h; P less than .05). The radiant warmer also induced a small (4%), but significant, increase in nonprotein respiratory quotient (0.94 +/- 0.1 v 0.90 +/- 0.1; P less than .05) and a 13% increase in carbon dioxide production (8.26 +/- 1.1 v 7.31 +/- 1.1 mL/kg/min; P less than .05). Subcutaneous fat accumulation (estimated from 60-second skin-fold thickness measurements) was greater under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (0.08 +/- 0.05 v 0.04 +/- 0.04 mm/d; P less than .05). Under the warmer, the infant's mean skin temperatures and core temperatures were normal and similar to those found in the incubator, but the foot temperature was on average 0.6 degrees C cooler. The average rate of weight gain (18 g/kg/d) was the same in the radiant environment. The pattern of the elevated metabolic rate, shift of respiratory quotient coupled with the accumulation of subcutaneous fat, and cool extremities of infants under the radiant warmer may represent a physiologic adaptive response to thermal stress. However, the reasons for the elevated metabolic rate are unclear, because activation of the sympathetic nervous system with the release of catecholamines is not apparently involved.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  19. Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

    2018-05-01

    Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

  20. Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

    Treesearch

    Valerie Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  1. Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

    Treesearch

    Valerie Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  2. Climate change and archaeological site distribution during the past four millennia in northern Jordan utilizing oxygen isotope analysis of human tooth enamel and geographic information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alakkam, Abdulla Ahmed

    The enamels of one hundred and ninety two teeth were analyzed for their oxygen isotopic composition from five archaeological sites in northern Jordan (Ya'amoun, Pella, Yasieleh, Sa'ad and Waqqas) to reconstruct the climate from the Middle Bronze Age II (1800--1500 BCE) to the Late Byzantine Period (491--640 CE). Results showed that the Middle Bronze Age II delta 18O values were the highest indicating warmer and drier climate conditions. The Late Bronze Age II and the Iron Age I/II experienced more favorable climate conditions. The Early Byzantine period delta18O values indicate wetter conditions compared to the Late Byzantine period but the latter was wetter than the Middle Bronze Age II. The geographic distribution of the archaeological sites in Jordan was affected by climate that changed over the prehistory of the country (from the Paleolithic to the Ottoman Period). Archaeological sites decreased in number during dry periods like the Middle Bronze Age II but increased during wet periods like the Roman one. Proximity to water sources was favored during the various cultural periods, where the northwestern and the mid-western areas witnessed dense occupation. On the other hand, areas that presently receive less than 200mm annual rainfall were not favored even during the wet periods. There were major climate events that overran the whole Mediterranean region during the Holocene, where Jordan was subject to them as well. These climatic events (prolonged droughts and/or insufficient precipitation) were identified using Bryson's archaeoclimate model that simulates the amount of precipitation, evapotranspiration and temperature during the last 12,000 years. These climate events coincided with the collapse of many societies in the Levant, such as the Middle Bronze Age societies of Mesopotamian cities.

  3. Quantifying in situ phenotypic variability in the hydraulic properties of four tree species across their distribution range in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Sterck, F.; Torres-Ruiz, J. M.; Petit, G.; Cochard, H.; von Arx, G.; Lintunen, A.; Caldeira, M. C.; Capdeville, G.; Copini, P.; Gebauer, R.; Grönlund, L.; Hölttä, T.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Peltoniemi, M.; Stritih, A.; Urban, J.; Delzon, S.

    2018-01-01

    Many studies have reported that hydraulic properties vary considerably between tree species, but little is known about their intraspecific variation and, therefore, their capacity to adapt to a warmer and drier climate. Here, we quantify phenotypic divergence and clinal variation for embolism resistance, hydraulic conductivity and branch growth, in four tree species, two angiosperms (Betula pendula, Populus tremula) and two conifers (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris), across their latitudinal distribution in Europe. Growth and hydraulic efficiency varied widely within species and between populations. The variability of embolism resistance was in general weaker than that of growth and hydraulic efficiency, and very low for all species but Populus tremula. In addition, no and weak support for a safety vs. efficiency trade-off was observed for the angiosperm and conifer species, respectively. The limited variability of embolism resistance observed here for all species except Populus tremula, suggests that forest populations will unlikely be able to adapt hydraulically to drier conditions through the evolution of embolism resistance. PMID:29715289

  4. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 2

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...

  5. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Northern Rocky Mountains [Part 1

    Treesearch

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang; Joanne J. Ho; Linda A. Joyce

    2018-01-01

    The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) identified climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Northern Rockies (USA) region, and developed solutions intended to minimize negative effects of climate change and facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. The NRAP region covers 183 million acres, spanning northern Idaho,...

  6. Quantifying impacts of historical climate change in American River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultana, R.

    2017-12-01

    There is a near consensus among scientists that climate has been changing for the last few decades in different parts of the world. Some regions are already experiencing the impacts of these changes. Warmer climate can alter the hydrology and water resources around the globe. Historical data shows the temperature has been rising in California and affecting California's water resource by reducing snowfall and snowmelt runoff during spring season. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate the historical climate in American River basin, a mountainous watershed in California. The results show that warmer climate in the recent decades (1995-2014) have already have affected streamflow characteristics of the watershed. Compared to the 1965-1974, the mean annual streamflow has decreased more than 6% and the peak streamflow has shifted from May to April. Understanding the changes will assist the water resource managers with valuable insight on the effectiveness of mitigation strategies considered as of now.

  7. Changing climate, changing forests: The impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

    Treesearch

    Lindsey Rustad; John Campbell; Jeffrey S. Dukes; Thomas Huntington; Kathy Fallon Lambert; Jacqueline Mohan; Nicholas Rodenhouse

    2012-01-01

    Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme...

  8. Pollen-based reconstruction of vegetational and climatic change over the past ~30 ka at Shudu Lake in the Hengduan Mountains of Yunnan, southwestern China.

    PubMed

    Yao, Yi-Feng; Song, Xiao-Yan; Wortley, Alexandra H; Wang, Yu-Fei; Blackmore, Stephen; Li, Cheng-Sen

    2017-01-01

    The Hengduan Mountains, with a distinct altitudinal differentiation and strong vertical vegetation zonation, occupy an important position in southwestern China as a global hotspot of biodiversity. Pollen analysis of lake sediments sampled along an altitudinal gradient in this region helps us to understand how this vegetation zonation arose and how it has responded to climate change and human impacts through time. Here we present a ~30-ka pollen record and interpret it in terms of vegetational and climatic change from a 310 cm-long core from Shudu Lake, located in the Hengduan Mountains region. Our results suggest that from 30 to 22 cal. ka BP, the vegetation was dominated by steppe/grassland (comprising mainly Artemisia, Poaceae and Polygonaceae) and broad-leaved forest (primarily Quercus, Betula and Castanopsis) in the lake catchment, reflecting a relatively warm, wet climate early in this phase and slightly warmer, drier conditions late in the phase. The period between 22 and 13.9 cal. ka BP was marked by a large expansion of needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest (Pinus, Abies and Quercus) and a decline in the extent of steppe/grassland, indicating warming, drying climatic conditions followed by a cold, wet period. Between 13.9 and 3 cal. ka BP, steppe/grassland expanded and the area covered by needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest reduced, implying a fluctuating climate dominated by warm and humid conditions. After 3 cal. ka BP, the vegetation was characterized by an increase in needle-leaved forest and reduction in steppe/grassland, suggesting warming and drying climate. A synthesis of palynological investigations from this and other sites suggests that the vegetation succession patterns seen along an altitudinal gradient in northwestern Yunnan since the Late Pleistocene are comparable, but that each site has its own characteristics probably due to the influences of altitude, topography, microclimate and human impact.

  9. Drier Air, Lower Temperatures, and Triggering of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Jennifer L.; Link, Mark S.; Luttmann-Gibson, Heike; Laden, Francine; Schwartz, Joel; Wessler, Benjamin S.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Gold, Diane R.; Dockery, Douglas W.

    2015-01-01

    Background The few previous studies on the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and meteorologic conditions have focused on outdoor temperature and hospital admissions, but hospital admissions are a crude indicator of atrial fibrillation incidence, and studies have found other weather measures in addition to temperature to be associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Methods Two hundred patients with dual chamber implantable cardioverter-defibrillators were enrolled and followed prospectively from 2006 to 2010 for new onset episodes of atrial fibrillation. The date and time of arrhythmia episodes documented by the implanted cardioverter-defibrillators were linked to meteorologic data and examined using a case-crossover analysis. We evaluated associations with outdoor temperature, apparent temperature, air pressure, and three measures of humidity (relative humidity, dew point, and absolute humidity). Results Of the 200 enrolled patients, 49 patients experienced 328 atrial fibrillation episodes lasting ≥30 seconds. Lower temperatures in the prior 48 hours were positively associated with atrial fibrillation. Lower absolute humidity (ie, drier air) had the strongest and most consistent association: each 0.5 g/m3 decrease in the prior 24 hours increased the odds of atrial fibrillation by 4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0%, 7%) and by 5% (95% CI: 2%, 8%) for exposure in the prior 2 hours. Results were similar for dew point but slightly weaker. Conclusions Recent exposure to drier air and lower temperatures were associated with the onset of atrial fibrillation among patients with known cardiac disease, supporting the hypothesis that meteorologic conditions trigger acute cardiovascular episodes. PMID:25756220

  10. Evaluating Carbon Isotope Signature of Bulk Organic Matter and Plant Wax Derived n-alkanes from Lacustrine Sediments as Climate Proxies along the Western Side of the Andes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contreras, S.; Werne, J. P.; Araneda, A.; Conejero, C. A.

    2015-12-01

    Sedimentary carbon isotope values (δ13C) of bulk organic matter and long chain (C25 to C35) n-alkanes are among the most long-lived and widely utilized proxies of organic matter and vegetation source. The carbon distribution (e.g. average carbon chain length, ACL) and isotope signature from long chain n-alkanes had been intensively used on paleoclimate studies because they are less influenced by diagenesis, differential preservation of compound classes, and changes in the sources of organic matter than bulk δ13C values. Recently, studies of modern plant n-alkanes have challenged the use of carbon distribution and carbon isotope signature from sedimentary n-alkanes as reliable indicators of vegetation and climate change. The climate in central-south western South America (SA) is projected to become significantly warmer and drier over the next several decades to centuries in response to anthropogenically driven warming. Paleolimnological studies along western SA are critical to obtain more realistic and reliable regional reconstructions of past climate and environments, including vegetation and water budget variability. Here we discuss bulk δ13C, distribution and δ13C in long chain n-alkanes from a suite of ~40 lake surface sediment (core-top) samples spanning the transition from a Mediterranean climate with a patchwork of cultivated vegetation, pastureland, conifers in central Chile to a rainy temperate climate dominated by broadleaf deciduous and evergreen forest. Data are compared to the latitudinal and orographic climatic trends of the Andes based on the climatology (e.g. precipitation and temperature) of the locations of all lakes involved in this study, using monthly gridded reanalysis products of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), based on the NCEP global forecast model and meteorological stations available in the region, from January 1979 to December 2010 with a 0.5° horizontal resolution.

  11. A decadal glimpse on climate and burn severity influences on ponderosa pine post-fire recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newingham, B. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Bright, B. C.; Smith, A.; Khalyani, A. H.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is predicted to affect plants at the margins of their distribution. Thus, ecosystem recovery after fire is likely to vary with climate and may be slowest in drier and hotter areas. However, fire regime characteristics, including burn severity, may also affect vegetation recovery. We assessed vegetation recovery one and 9-15 years post-fire in North American ponderosa pine ecosystems distributed across climate and burn severity gradients. Using climate predictors derived from downscaled 1993-2011 climate normals, we predicted vegetation recovery as indicated by Normalized Burn Ratio derived from 1984-2012 Landsat time series imagery. Additionally, we collected field vegetation measurements to examine local topographic controls on burn severity and post-fire vegetation recovery. At a regional scale, we hypothesized a positive relationship between precipitation and recovery time and a negative relationship between temperature and recovery time. At the local scale, we hypothesized southern aspects to recovery slower than northern aspects. We also predicted higher burn severity to slow recovery. Field data found attenuated ponderosa pine recovery in hotter and drier regions across all burn severity classes. We concluded that downscaled climate data and Landsat imagery collected at commensurate scales may provide insight into climate effects on post-fire vegetation recovery relevant to ponderosa pine forest managers.

  12. Spatial and ecological variation in dryland ecohydrological responses to climate change: implications for management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Palmquist, Kyle A.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.

    2016-01-01

    Ecohydrological responses to climate change will exhibit spatial variability and understanding the spatial pattern of ecological impacts is critical from a land management perspective. To quantify climate change impacts on spatial patterns of ecohydrology across shrub steppe ecosystems in North America, we asked the following question: How will climate change impacts on ecohydrology differ in magnitude and variability across climatic gradients, among three big sagebrush ecosystems (SB-Shrubland, SB-Steppe, SB-Montane), and among Sage-grouse Management Zones? We explored these potential changes for mid-century for RCP8.5 using a process-based water balance model (SOILWAT) for 898 big sagebrush sites using site- and scenario-specific inputs. We summarize changes in available soil water (ASW) and dry days, as these ecohydrological variables may be helpful in guiding land management decisions about where to geographically concentrate climate change mitigation and adaptation resources. Our results suggest that during spring, soils will be wetter in the future across the western United States, while soils will be drier in the summer. The magnitude of those predictions differed depending on geographic position and the ecosystem in question: Larger increases in mean daily spring ASW were expected for high-elevation SB-Montane sites and the eastern and central portions of our study area. The largest decreases in mean daily summer ASW were projected for warm, dry, mid-elevation SB-Montane sites in the central and west-central portions of our study area (decreases of up to 50%). Consistent with declining summer ASW, the number of dry days was projected to increase rangewide, but particularly for SB-Montane and SB-Steppe sites in the eastern and northern regions. Collectively, these results suggest that most sites will be drier in the future during the summer, but changes were especially large for mid- to high-elevation sites in the northern half of our study area. Drier

  13. Comparison of the performance of battery-operated fluid warmers.

    PubMed

    Lehavi, Amit; Yitzhak, Avraham; Jarassy, Refael; Heizler, Rami; Katz, Yeshayahu Shai; Raz, Aeyal

    2018-06-07

    Warming intravenous fluids is essential to prevent hypothermia in patients with trauma, especially when large volumes are administered. Prehospital and transport settings require fluid warmers to be small, energy efficient and independent of external power supply. We compared the warming properties and resistance to flow of currently available battery-operated fluid warmers. Fluid warming was evaluated at 50, 100 and 200 mL/min at a constant input temperature of 20°C and 10°C using a cardiopulmonary bypass roller pump and cooler. Output temperature was continuously recorded. Performance of fluid warmers varied with flows and input temperatures. At an input temperature of 20°C and flow of 50 mL/min, the Buddy Lite, enFlow, Thermal Angel and Warrior warmed 3.4, 2.4, 1 and 3.6 L to over 35°C, respectively. However, at an input temperature of 10°C and flow of 200 mL/min, the Buddy Lite failed to warm, the enFlow warmed 3.3 L to 25.7°C, the Thermal Angel warmed 1.5 L to 20.9°C and the Warrior warmed 3.4 L to 34.4°C (p<0.0001). We found significant differences between the fluid warmers: the use of the Buddy Lite should be limited to moderate input temperature and low flow rates. The use of the Thermal Angel is limited to low volumes due to battery capacity and low output temperature at extreme conditions. The Warrior provides the best warming performance at high infusion rates, as well as low input temperatures, and was able to warm the largest volumes in these conditions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Using dendrometer and dendroclimatology data to predict the growth response of Douglas-fir to climate change in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Altered seasonal climate patterns towards hotter, drier summers through the 21st century resulting from global climate change could affect the growth of coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. The seasonal effects of temperature, precipitation,...

  15. Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

    2017-06-01

    Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

  16. Comparison of injury incidences between football teams playing in different climatic regions

    PubMed Central

    Orchard, John W; Waldén, Markus; Hägglund, Martin; Orchard, Jessica J; Chivers, Ian; Seward, Hugh; Ekstrand, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Australian Football League (AFL) teams in northern (warmer) areas generally have higher rates of injury than those in southern (cooler) areas. Conversely, in soccer (football) in Europe, teams in northern (cooler) areas have higher rates of injury than those in southern (warmer) areas, with an exception being knee anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries, which are more common in the southern (warmer) parts of Europe. This study examined relative injury incidence in the AFL comparing 9,477 injuries over 229,827 player-weeks from 1999–2012. There was a slightly higher injury incidence for teams from warmer parts of Australia (relative risk [RR] 1.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.10) with quadriceps strains (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.58), knee cartilage injuries (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16–1.74), and ankle sprains (RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00–1.37) all being more likely in warmer region teams. Achilles injuries followed a reverse pattern, tending to be more common in cooler region teams (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.47–1.03). In conclusion, common findings from the AFL and European soccer are that ankle sprains and ACL injuries are generally more likely in teams playing in warmer climate zones, whereas Achilles tendinopathy may be more likely in teams playing in cooler zones. These injuries may have climate or surface risk factors (possibly related to types and structure of grass and shoe-surface traction) that are universal across different football codes. PMID:24379731

  17. Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

    2007-07-01

    This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

  18. Varying geospatial analyses to assess climate risk and adaptive capacity in a hotter, drier Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elias, E.; Reyes, J. J.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.

    2017-12-01

    Assessing vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate variability and change is vital in securing food systems and sustaining rural livelihoods. Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners rely on science-based, decision-relevant, and localized information to maintain production, ecological viability, and economic returns. This contribution synthesizes a collection of research on the future of agricultural production in the American Southwest (SW). Research was based on a variety of geospatial methodologies and datasets to assess the vulnerability of rangelands and livestock, field crops, specialty crops, and forests in the SW to climate-risk and change. This collection emerged from the development of regional vulnerability assessments for agricultural climate-risk by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hub Network, established to deliver science-based information and technologies to enable climate-informed decision-making. Authors defined vulnerability differently based on their agricultural system of interest, although each primarily focuses on biophysical systems. We found that an inconsistent framework for vulnerability and climate risk was necessary to adequately capture the diversity, variability, and heterogeneity of SW landscapes, peoples, and agriculture. Through the diversity of research questions and methodologies, this collection of articles provides valuable information on various aspects of SW vulnerability. All articles relied on geographic information systems technology, with highly variable levels of complexity. Agricultural articles used National Agricultural Statistics Service data, either as tabular county level summaries or through the CropScape cropland raster datasets. Most relied on modeled historic and future climate information, but with differing assumptions regarding spatial resolution and temporal framework. We assert that it is essential to evaluate climate risk using a variety of complementary methodologies and

  19. Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer.

    PubMed

    Paoli, Amélie; Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

    2018-01-01

    In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

  20. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2018-03-01

    Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

  1. Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tinner, Willy; Lotter, André F.; Ammann, Brigitta; Conedera, Marco; Hubschmid, Priska; van Leeuwen, Jacqueline F. N.; Wehrli, Michael

    2003-06-01

    Fluctuations in the Δ 14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800-650 and 400-100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450-1250 BC, 650-450 BC, 50 BC-100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of

  2. Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Denis; Person, Mark; Daannen, Ronnie; Locke, Sharon; Dahlstrom, Dave; Zabielski, Victor; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Wright, Herb; Ito, Emi; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

  3. Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

  4. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

    2015-08-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

  5. Seasonal variations in aridity and temperature characterize changing climate during the last deglaciation in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sikes, Elisabeth L.; Medeiros, Patricia M.; Augustinus, Paul; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Freeman, Katherine R.

    2013-08-01

    New multiproxy records of aridity from northern New Zealand assess the seasonality and overall pattern of wetness through the Last Glacial Coldest Period (LGCP) to the early Holocene in the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Biomass burning indicators based on terrestrial biomarkers and δ13C of individual plant leaf wax carbon compounds (n-alkanoic acids) from a maar lake were used to track aridity. In combination with published sea surface temperatures and new pollen-based temperature estimates from the same core, seasonal climatological changes in the Auckland area were determined from 27 to 9 cal. ka BP. These proxies document a shift from cold and dry conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum to seasonally wetter conditions through the deglaciation. Spring became warmer first and possibly wetter while summers remained drier and initially cooler. The progression from cold-dry to warm-wet was punctuated by the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) which stands out as having wetter conditions in both spring and summer and mild cooling largely concentrated in spring. The seasonal climate trends observed here can be plausibly explained by a rapid change from a subpolar climate to one with subtropical control in this region of the southwest Pacific across the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition. A southerly shift and decreasing intensity of the westerly wind belt after the LGCP is considered to have driven the early deglacial warming and pulse of wetness whereas a northward shift without a commensurate increase in intensity of the westerlies may explain conditions in the ACR.

  6. Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

    2017-12-01

    Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

  7. Holocene environmental changes inferred from biological and sedimentological proxies in a high elevation Great Basin lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wahl, David B.; Starratt, Scott W.; Anderson, Lysanna; Kusler, Jennifer E.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Addison, Jason A.; Wan, Elmira

    2015-01-01

    Multi-proxy analyses were conducted on a sediment core from Favre Lake, a high elevation cirque lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, and provide a ca. 7600 year record of local and regional environmental change. Data indicate that lake levels were lower from 7600-5750 cal yr BP, when local climate was warmer and/or drier than today. Effective moisture increased after 5750 cal yr BP and remained relatively wet, and possibly cooler, until ca. 3750 cal yr BP. Results indicate generally dry conditions but also enhanced climatic variability from 3750-1750 cal yr BP, after which effective moisture increased. The timing of major changes in the Favre Lake proxy data are roughly coeval and in phase with those recorded in several paleoclimate studies across the Great Basin, suggesting regional climatic controls on local conditions and similar responses at high and low altitudes.

  8. Forced-Air Warmers and Surgical Site Infections in Patients Undergoing Knee or Hip Arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Austin, Paul N

    2017-01-01

    The majority of the evidence indicates preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia reduces the incidence of many perioperative complications. Among the results of inadvertent perioperative hypothermia are increased bleeding, myocardial events, impaired wound healing, and diminished renal function. Most researchers agree there is an increased incidence of surgical site infections in patients who experience inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Forced-air warming is effective in preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Paradoxically, forced-air warmers have been implicated in causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. The results of investigations suggest these devices harbor pathogens and cause unwanted airflow disturbances. However, no significant increases in bacterial counts were found when forced-air warmers were used according to the manufacturer's directions. The results of one study suggested the incidence of surgical site infections in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty was increased when using a forced-air warmer. However these researchers did not control for other factors affecting the incidence of surgical site infections in these patients. Current evidence does not support forced-air warmers causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. Clinicians must use and maintain these devices as per the manufacturer's directions. They may consider using alternative warming methods. Well-conducted studies are needed to help determine the role of forced-air warmers in causing infections in these patients.

  9. A Functional Approach to Zooplankton Communities in Mountain Lakes Stocked With Non-Native Sportfish Under a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redmond, Laura E.; Loewen, Charlie J. G.; Vinebrooke, Rolf D.

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem function likely increase with elevation, thereby possibly placing alpine communities at greatest risk. Here, consideration of species traits enables stressor effects on taxonomic composition to be translated into potential functional impacts. We analyzed data for 47 taxa across 137 mountain lakes and ponds spanning large latitudinal (491 km) and elevational (1,399 m) gradients in western Canada, to assess regional and local factors of the taxonomic composition and functional structure of zooplankton communities. Multivariate community analyses revealed that small body size, clonal reproduction via parthenogenesis, and lack of pigmentation were species traits associated with both introduced non-native sportfish and also environmental conditions reflecting a warmer and drier climate—namely higher water temperatures, shallower water depths, and more chemically concentrated water. Thus, historical introductions of sportfish appear to have potentially induced greater tolerance in zooplankton communities of future climatic warming, especially in previously fishless alpine lakes. Although alpine lake communities occupied a relatively small functional space (i.e., low functional diversity), they were contained within the broader regional functional structure. Therefore, our findings point to the importance of dispersal by lower montane species to the future functional stability of alpine communities.

  10. Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

    2016-02-01

    Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Disentangling the driving mechanism of streamflow trends using runoff senstivity to land use and climate change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silverman, N. L.; Moore, J. N.; Maneta, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    The majority of watersheds within the United States have been disturbed by anthropogenic land use change. On top of this, there is strong evidence of (historic and projected) climatic changes that affect earth's hydrologic cycle. Streamflow measurements integrate the effects of land use and climate change on watershed hydrology. Therefore, when temporal trends are present, teasing out the cause is challenging due to the overlying climate and land use signals. In this study, we develop an analytical framework for distinguishing trends in streamflow that are driven by climate change from those that are driven by land use change. This framework is based on the theory that during wetter years runoff is affected more by changes in climate than during drier years. Whereas, the inverse is true for land use change. During wetter years runoff is affected less by land use change than during drier years. This difference can be seen in the quantile regression of the 75th and 25th percentile annual stream flows which represent wetter and drier years, respectively. This creates a defining characteristic in how these two forcing mechanisms manifest within the streamflow record. We empirically test this framework and show that the sensitivity of runoff to climate and land use change is uniquely dependent on the spatiotemporal water and energy limitations of a catchment. Finally we apply the framework using 1,566 watersheds across the contiguous United States. We use gages from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) network. The gages are selected because they have continuous and complete data from the years 1950 to 2009 and represent watersheds which are characterized by a range of disturbances. Our results show that the driving mechanisms of streamflow change across the U.S. are regionally coherent and correspond with land management activities and climate zones. This methodology provides a simple means of classifying watershed to

  12. VEGETATION MEDIATED THE IMPACTS OF POSTGLACIAL CLIMATIC CHANGE ON FIRE REGIMES IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL BROOKS RANGE, ALASKA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Higuera, P E; Brubaker, L B; Anderson, P M

    We examine direct and indirect impacts of millennial-scale climatic change on fire regimes in the southcentral Brooks Range, Alaska, using four lake-sediment records and existing paleoclimate interpretations. New techniques are introduced to identify charcoal peaks semi-objectively and detect statistical differences in fire regimes. Peaks in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) provide estimates of fire return intervals (FRIs) which are compared between vegetation zones described by fossil pollen and stomata. Climatic warming from ca 15-9 ka BP (calendar years before CE 1950) coincides with shifts in vegetation from herb tundra to shrub tundra to deciduous woodlands, all novel species assemblages relative tomore » modern vegetation. Two sites cover this period and show increased CHARs and decreased FRIs with the transition from herb to shrub tundra ca 13.3-14.3 ka BP. Short FRIs in the Betula-dominated shrub tundra (mean [m] FRI 144 yr; 95% CI 119-170) primarily reflect the effects of flammable, continuous fuels on the fire regime. FRIs increased significantly with the transition to Populus-dominated deciduous woodlands ca 10.5 ka BP (mFRI 251 yr [158-352]), despite evidence of warmer- and drier-than-present summers. We attribute reduced fire activity under these conditions to low flammability of deciduous fuels. Three sites record the mid to late Holocene, when cooler and moister conditions allowed Picea glauca forest-tundra and P. mariana boreal forests to establish ca 8 and 5.5 ka BP. Forest-tundra FRIs did not differ significantly from the previous period (mFRIs range from 131-238 yr), but FRIs decreased with the transition to boreal forest (mFRI 145 yr [129-163]). Overall, fire-regime shifts in the study area showed greater correspondence with vegetation characteristics than with inferred climate, and we conclude that vegetation mediated the impacts of millennial-scale climatic change on fire regimes by modifying landscape flammability. Our findings emphasize

  13. Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land cover and surface energy budget changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wichansky, P.S.; Steyaert, L.T.; Walko, R.L.; Waever, C.P.

    2008-01-01

    The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover data sets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dew point temperatures, rainfall, and the individual components of the surface energy budget to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6??C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0??C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions, however, were slightly cooler. Dew point temperatures decreased by 0.3-0.6??C, suggesting drier, less humid near-surface air for the present-day landscape. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

    PubMed

    Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

  15. Fine-scale spatial climate variation and drought mediate the likelihood of reburning.

    PubMed

    Parks, Sean A; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Holsinger, Lisa M; Baggett, Larry Scott

    2018-03-01

    In many forested ecosystems, it is increasingly recognized that the probability of burning is substantially reduced within the footprint of previously burned areas. This self-limiting effect of wildland fire is considered a fundamental emergent property of ecosystems and is partly responsible for structuring landscape heterogeneity (i.e., mosaics of different age classes), thereby reducing the likelihood of uncharacteristically large fires in regions with active fire regimes. However, the strength and longevity of this self-limiting phenomenon is not well understood in most fire-prone ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the self-limiting effect in terms of its strength and longevity for five fire-prone study areas in western North America and investigate how each measure varies along a spatial climatic gradient and according to temporal (i.e., annual) climatic variation. Results indicate that the longevity (i.e., number of years) of the self-limiting effect ranges between 15 yr in the warm and dry study area in the southwestern United States to 33 yr in the cold, northern study areas in located in northwestern Montana and the boreal forest of Canada. We also found that spatial climatic variation has a strong influence on wildland fire's self-limiting capacity. Specifically, the self-limiting effect within each study area was stronger and lasted longer in areas with low mean moisture deficit (i.e., wetter and cooler settings) compared to areas with high mean moisture deficit (warmer and drier settings). Last, our findings show that annual climatic variation influences wildland fire's self-limiting effect: drought conditions weakened the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect in all study areas, albeit at varying magnitudes. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that wildland fire contributes to spatial heterogeneity in fuel ages that subsequently mediate future fire sizes and effects. However, our findings show that the strength and

  16. Springs as hydrologic refugia in a changing climate? A remote sensing approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Johnson, Henry M.

    2018-01-01

    Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types (i.e., helocrene, hypocrene, and hillslope springs) in terms of hydrologic and ecological resilience to climatic water stress using freely available remote‐sensing and climate data. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1985 through 2011 to delineate surface‐moisture zones (SMZs) associated with 39 clusters of 172 springs in a montane sage‐steppe landscape in southeastern Oregon, USA. We developed and synthesized seven NDVI‐based indicators of SMZ resilience to interannual changes in water availability: (1) mean and (2) standard deviation of July NDVI; (3) mean difference in July NDVI and (4) difference in coefficient of variation for July NDVI between each SMZ and its surrounding watershed; (5) response of SMZ July NDVI to 90‐day antecedent precipitation; (6) response of SMZ July NDVI to the previous winter's snowpack; and (7) range of NDVI values from an exceptionally wet year followed by three dry years. Because all resilience indicators were highly inter‐correlated, we derived an overall metric of SMZ resilience using principal components analysis that accounted for 66% of total variance. This overall resilience score was positively correlated with SMZ elevation, slope, mean annual precipitation, and with

  17. Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Paoli, Amélie; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

    2018-01-01

    In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species’ reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates’ births affects offspring survival and population’s recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females’ physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females’ calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change. PMID:29694410

  18. Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

    2016-09-01

    This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

  19. Mechanisms driving understory evergreen herb distributions across slope aspects: as derived from landscape position.

    Treesearch

    Robert J. Warren

    2009-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, the surface of south-facing slopes orients toward the sun and thus receives a greater duration and intensity of solar irradiation, resulting in a relatively warmer, drier...

  20. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  1. Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidalgo, H. G.

    2013-12-01

    A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

  2. Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

    PubMed

    Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

    2017-11-15

    Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

  3. Do changes in climate and land use pose a risk to the future water availability of Mediterranean Lakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucak, T.; Trolle, D.; Andersen, H. E.; Thodsen, H.; Erdoğan, Ş.; Levi, E. E.; Filiz, N.; Jeppesen, E.; Beklioğlu, M.

    2016-12-01

    Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and change in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. However, considering the climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region where potential evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation and with increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation, more dramatic water level declines in lakes and severe water scarcity problems are expected to occur in the future. Our study lake, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - under pressure due to water abstraction for irrigated crop farming and climatic changes, and integrated water level management is therefore required. We used an integrated modeling approach to predict the future lake water level of Lake Beyşehir in response to the future changes in both climate and, potentially, land use by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Machine Regression model (ɛ-SVR). We found that climate change projections caused enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff, whereas the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment were comparatively minor. In all climate scenarios applied in the ɛ-SVR model, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction, predicting that the lake may dry out already in the 2040s with the current outflow regulation considering the most pessimistic scenario. Based on model runs with optimum outflow management, a 9-60% reduction in outflow withdrawal is needed to prevent the lake from drying out by the end of this century. Our results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and loss of ecosystem value in near future if the current intense water abstraction is maintained. Therefore, we conclude that outflow management in water-limited regions in a warmer and drier future and sustainable use of water

  4. The Science of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  5. Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

    PubMed

    Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

    2013-01-01

    In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

  6. Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    PubMed Central

    Ficklin, Darren L.; Stewart, Iris T.; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2013-01-01

    In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

  7. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia

    PubMed Central

    Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K.; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Background Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Methods Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. Results We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. Conclusion To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia. PMID:27711116

  8. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.

    2003-01-01

    An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change

  9. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies for Grain Sorghum and Cotton Production in the Texas High Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kothari, K.; Ale, S.; Bordovsky, J.; Hoogenboom, G.; Munster, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    The semi-arid Texas High Plains (THP) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States. However, agriculture in the THP is faced with the challenges of rapid groundwater depletion in the underlying Ogallala Aquifer, restrictions on pumping groundwater, recurring droughts, and projected warmer and drier future climatic conditions. Therefore, it is imperative to adopt strategies that enhance climate change resilience of THP agriculture to maintain a sustainable agricultural economy in this region. The overall goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change and potential reduction in groundwater availability on production of two major crops in the region, cotton and grain sorghum, and suggest adaptation strategies using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping System Model. The DSSAT model was calibrated and evaluated using data from the long-term cotton-sorghum rotation experiments conducted at Helms Farm near Halfway in the THP. After achieving a satisfactory calibration for crop yield (RMSE < 1.0 T ha-1 or 14%) and dates of onset of various growth stages, the model was used to simulate historic (1980-2010) and future (2040-2070) cotton and sorghum yields and water use. The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) projected future climate datasets from nine CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used in this study. Preliminary results indicated a reduction in irrigated grain sorghum yield per hectare by 6% and 8%, and a reduction in dryland sorghum yield per hectare by 9% and 17% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Grain sorghum future water use declined by about 2% and 5% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Climate change impacts on cotton production and evaluation of several adaptation strategies such as incorporating heat and drought tolerances in cultivars, early planting, shifting to short season

  10. Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

    PubMed

    Nordam, Tor; Dunnebier, Dorien A E; Beegle-Krause, C J; Reed, Mark; Slagstad, Dag

    2017-12-01

    We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

  11. Climate effects on late-season flight times of Massachusetts butterflies.

    PubMed

    Zipf, L; Williams, E H; Primack, R B; Stichter, S

    2017-09-01

    Although the responses of living organisms to climate change are being widely investigated, little attention has been given to such effects late in the growing season. We studied the late-season flight times of 20 species of butterflies in a geographically limited region, the state of Massachusetts in the USA, by examining change in dates of flight over a 22-year period and in response to average monthly temperature and precipitation. By analyzing the last 10% of each year's observations reported by observers of the Massachusetts Butterfly Club, we found that seven species remain in flight significantly later into the fall than they did two decades earlier, while two species show reduced late-season flight. Life history characteristics of the species, particularly voltinism and average fall flight dates, influenced whether warmer fall months led to increases or decreases in fall flight. Warmer Novembers often led to later fall flight, and wetter Augusts usually extended fall flight. These results document the effects of climate on late-season flight times of butterflies, add to an understanding of how warmer autumn conditions alter the phenology of different butterfly species, and show the usefulness of citizen science data.

  12. Climate Risk Management Strategy in the Tropical Low to Medium Income Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.

    2015-12-01

    The market penetration of index insurance sector, posed as an innovative weather risk management and climate change adaptation tool, is growing in the tropical low to medium income countries. Usually the underwriters such as regional, national or international organizations, banks or (re)insurance companies hold these risk portfolios. The micro-level insurance contracts when aggregated at state, country or regional level, could potentially pose significant systemic risk due to tail dependency, micro-correlation and fat-tail nature of the damage, threatening the survival of this micro-financial risk management sector, ultimately impeding the sustainable development goals. Analyzing the observed inter-annual variability of the tropical climate system, this paper identifies the physical mechanisms for heterogeneous climatic response and suggests that diversification opportunity exists across different regions and seasons. Taking two case studies from tropical Africa, an empirical analysis is done to highlight that El Niño modulates the number of wet days in an opposite way across the two regions and seasons, suggesting the possibility of diversification of the index insurance portfolios across regions and seasons. Specifically, El Niño is associated with drier condition over Sahel, while it is associated with wetter condition over Tropical Eastern Africa (TEA), during their respective Jul-Aug-Sep and Oct-Nov-Dec rainy seasons. Such contrasting modulation in the number of wet days can be understood by the phase relationship between the local rainy season and El Niño evolution stage. The transient phase of El Niño, which is in phase with the rainy season (Jul-Sep) over Sahel, is characterized by tropospheric stability induced by tropospheric warming without regional North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) adjustment. In contrast, the mature phase of El Niño is in phase with the short rainy season (Oct-Dec) over TEA, and is characterized by adjusted warmer

  13. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  14. Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  15. A 150-year record of ancient DNA, lipid biomarkers and hydrogen isotopes, tracing the microbial-planktonic community succession controlled by (hydro)climatic variability in a tropical lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smittenberg, Rienk; Yamoah, Kweku; Callac, Nolwenn; Fru, Ernest Chi; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Rattray, Jayne; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    We investigated the decadal variations in phytoplankton communities, and their response to environmental and climatic conditions, from a ˜150 year long sedimentary archive of Lake Nong Thale Prong (NTP), southern Thailand. We applied a combination of analyses: lipid biomarkers, compound-specific hydrogen isotopes, bulk carbon and nitrogen concentrations and isotopes, environmental SEM, and fossil DNA using qPCR targeted to specific taxa. Past hydrological conditions were reconstructed using the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf wax n-alkanes. Temperatures were reconstructed using the tetraether-based MBT/CBT index, measured using a new and efficient reverse-phase HPLC-MS method. The climatological data compared well with meteorological data from the last decades. Reconstructed drier and warmer conditions from ˜1857-1916 Common Era (CE) coincided with oligotrophic lake water conditions and dominance of the green algae Botryococcus braunii - evidenced by a combination of both fossil DNA and the occurrence of characteristic botryococcene lipids. A change to higher silica (Si) input ˜1916 CE was related to increased rainfall and lower temperatures concurring with an abrupt takeover by diatom blooms lasting for 50 years - as evidenced by ancient DNA, characteristic highly branched isoprenoid lipids, and SEM. From the 1970s onwards, more eutrophic conditions prevailed, and these were likely caused by increased levels of anthropogenic phosphate (P), aided by stronger lake stratification caused by dryer and warmer conditions. The eutrophic conditions led to increased primary productivity in the lake, consisting again of a Botryococcus sp., although this time not producing botryococcene lipids. Moreover, Cyanobacteria became dominant - again evidenced by ancient DNA and the characteristic C19 alkane. Throughout the record, stratification and primary production could be linked to the intensity of methane cycling, by targeting and quantifying the mcrA gene that is used

  16. Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kueppers, Lara; Faist, Akasha; Ferrenberg, Scott

    Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. Here, we tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We also tracked germinationmore » rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Altogether these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.« less

  17. Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers

    DOE PAGES

    Kueppers, Lara; Faist, Akasha; Ferrenberg, Scott; ...

    2017-11-11

    Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. Here, we tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We also tracked germinationmore » rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Altogether these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.« less

  18. Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

    PubMed Central

    Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

    2016-01-01

    How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

  19. Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

    PubMed

    Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

    2016-10-01

    How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

  20. A 13,500 Year Record of Holocene Climate, Fire and Vegetation from Swan Lake, Idaho, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, D.; Anderson, L.; Miller, D. M.; Rosario, J. J.; Starratt, S.; McGeehin, J. P.; Bright, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Modern climate dynamics in the western US are largely determined by a combination of two factors: 1) the strength and position of midlatitude pressure systems, which, in turn, are responsible for the generation and trajectory of winter storms, and 2) the strength of the North America Monsoon (NAM) which brings summer precipitation northward in response to northern hemisphere warming. Paleoclimate records from the Great Basin of the western US suggest some coherence in the timing of major climatic shifts during the Holocene. However, knowledge of the timing and magnitude of these changes at local scales, which can help explain the relative contribution of midlatitude winter storms vs. NAM, is lacking in many places. Here we present new data that constrain the timing and magnitude of late glacial and Holocene climate variability in the northeastern Great Basin, provide insight into past spatial variability of precipitation patterns in the western US, and improve our understanding of regional scale influences on Great Basin climate. In 2011, a 7.65 m sediment core was raised from Swan Lake, a small wetland located in southeastern Idaho that was formed in the spillway channel created by the catastrophic flooding of Lake Bonneville ~18 ka BP. Pollen, charcoal, clumped isotope, diatom, ostracod, and sedimentological data are used to reconstruct vegetation, fire history, and lake level/groundwater flux over the last 13,500 years. Age control is provided by 19 AMS radiocarbon determinations, which are reported as thousands of calibrated years before present (ka BP). This effort builds on earlier work by Bright (1966) who reported on pollen, macrofossils, and sediment type from Swan Lake. Our data suggest cool and wet conditions prevailed until around 12.3 ka BP, after which a drying trend begins. The early Holocene was marked by a warmer, drier climate, which persisted until around 6.2 ka BP. Moister conditions after 6.2 ka BP likely resulted from a combination of enhanced

  1. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Atlantic Coast

    Treesearch

    Rachel Loehman; Greer Anderson

    2009-01-01

    Observed 20th century climate changes in the Atlantic Coast bioregion include warmer air and sea surface temperatures, increased winter precipitation (especially rainfall), and an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events. Climate change impacts during the century include phenological shifts in plant and animals species, such as earlier occurrence of lilac...

  2. Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    likely to remain the same until the 2040's, then followed by a second step of warming and drying trend. During the last ten years, local farmers have been experiencing difficulties to combine challenges from an increasing competition in markets and from hotter and drier conditions. Helped by public subsidies, almost one-third of the vineyard was pulled out during that period. Up until the 2040's, with similar conditions, the local viticultural system should continue its transformation, favouring dynamic, proactive and enterprising farmers. Thus the composition of the farming community might change gradually, and count in the 2040's a majority of producers with a higher individual adaptive capacity than now. The timing and intensity of near-future climate change as measured by the climate model, combined to regional economic change, might thus be an asset to prepare and facilitate adaptation in the longer term.

  3. Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

    PubMed

    Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

    2015-02-01

    Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Improving predictions of carbon fluxes in the tropics undre climatic changes using ED2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; Uriarte, M.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere, highlighting the urgency of understanding the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. The most optimistic predictions of climate models indicate that global mean temperatures will increase by up to 2 0C with some tropical regions experiencing extreme heat. Drought and heat-induced tree mortality will accelerate the release of carbon to the atmosphere creating a positive feedback that greatly exacerbates global warming. Thus, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests may become net sources, rather than sinks, of carbon. Earth system models have not reached a consensus on the magnitude and direction of climate change impacts on tropical forests, calling into question the reliability of their predictions. Thus, there is an immediate need to improve the representation of tropical forests in earth system models to make robust predictions. The goal of our study is to quantify the responses of tropical forests to climate variability and improve the predictive capacity of terrestrial ecosystem models. We have collected species-specific physiological and functional trait data from 144 tree species in a Puerto Rican rainforest to parameterize the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). The large amount of data generated by this research will lead to better validation and lowering the uncertainty in future model predictions. To best represent the forest landscape in ED2, all the trees have been assigned to three plant functional types (PFTs): early, mid, and late successional species. Trait data for each PFT were synthesized in a Bayesian meta-analytical model and posterior distributions of traits were used to parameterize the ED2 model. Model predictions show that biomass production of late successional PFT (118.89 ton/ha) was consistently higher than mid (71.33 ton/ha) and early (13.21 ton/ha) PFTs. However, mid successional PFT had the highest contributions to NPP for the

  5. Climate Change in Voyageurs National Park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seeley, M. W.

    2011-12-01

    Voyageurs National Park was created in 1975. This beautifully forested and lake-dominated landscape shared between Minnesota and Canada has few roads and must be seen by water. The islands and Kabetogama Peninsula are part of the Canadian Shield, some of the oldest exposed rock in the world. Voyageurs National Park boasts many unique landscape and climatic attributes, and like most mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere climate change is in play there. The statistical signals of change in the climate record are evident from both temperature and precipitation measurements. The history of these measurements goes back over 100 years. Additionally, studies and measurements of the lakes and general ecosystem already show some consequences of these climate changes. Mean temperature measurements are generally warmer than they once were, most notably in the winter season. Minimum temperatures have changed more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation has trended upward, but has also changed in character with greater frequency and contribution from thunderstorm rainfalls across the park. In addition variability in annual precipitation has become more amplified, as the disparity between wet and dry years has grown wider. Some changes are already in evidence in terms of bird migration patterns, earlier lake ice-out dates, warmer water temperatures with more algal blooms, decline in lake clarity, and somewhat longer frost-free seasons. Climate change will continue to have impacts on Voyageurs National Park, and likely other national parks across the nation. Furthermore scientists may find that the study, presentation, and discussion about climate impacts on our national parks is a particularly engaging way to educate citizens and improve climate literacy as we contemplate what adaptation and mitigation policies should be enacted to preserve the quality of our national parks for future generations.

  6. Simulating Forest Carbon Dynamics in Response to Large-scale Fuel Reduction Treatments Under Projected Climate-fire Interactions in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, S.; Hurteau, M. D.

    2016-12-01

    The interaction of warmer, drier climate and increasing large wildfires, coupled with increasing fire severity resulting from fire-exclusion are anticipated to undermine forest carbon (C) stock stability and C sink strength in the Sierra Nevada forests. Treatments, including thinning and prescribed burning, to reduce biomass and restore forest structure have proven effective at reducing fire severity and lessening C loss when treated stands are burned by wildfire. However, the current pace and scale of treatment implementation is limited, especially given recent increases in area burned by wildfire. In this study, we used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the role of implementation timing of large-scale fuel reduction treatments in influencing forest C stock and fluxes of Sierra Nevada forests with projected climate and larger wildfires. We ran 90-year simulations using climate and wildfire projections from three general circulation models driven by the A2 emission scenario. We simulated two different treatment implementation scenarios: a `distributed' (treatments implemented throughout the simulation) and an `accelerated' (treatments implemented during the first half century) scenario. We found that across the study area, accelerated implementation had 0.6-10.4 Mg ha-1 higher late-century aboveground biomass (AGB) and 1.0-2.2 g C m-2 yr-1 higher mean C sink strength than the distributed scenario, depending on specific climate-wildfire projections. Cumulative wildfire emissions over the simulation period were 0.7-3.9 Mg C ha-1 higher for distributed implementation relative to accelerated implementation. However, simulations with both implementation practices have considerably higher AGB and C sink strength as well as lower wildfire emission than simulations in the absence of fuel reduction treatments. The results demonstrate the potential for implementing large-scale fuel reduction treatments to enhance forest C stock stability and C sink strength

  7. Disaggregating from daily to sub-daily rainfall under a future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, S.; Evans, J.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

    2012-04-01

    We describe an algorithm for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous fine-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of atmospheric predictors representative of the future climate. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric profile more reflective of expected future conditions. When looking at the scaling from daily to sub-daily rainfall over the historical record, it was found that the relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically showing more intense rain falling over shorter periods compared with cooler seasons and stations. Importantly, by regressing against atmospheric covariates such as temperature this effect was almost entirely eliminated, providing a basis for suggesting the approach may be valid when extrapolating sub-daily sequences to a future climate. The method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, and showed that when holding the total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of a short duration (6 minute) rainfall increased by between 4.1% and 13.4% per degree change in temperature for the maximum six minute burst, between 3.1% and 6.8% for the maximum one hour burst, and between 1.5% and 3.5% for the fraction of the day with no rainfall. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of precipitation in the future is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

  8. ARE LAKES GETTING WARMER? REMOTE SENSING OF LARGE LAKE TEMPERATURES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent studies (Levitus et al., 2000) suggest a warning of the world ocean over the past 50 years. Freshwater lakes could also be getting warmer but thermal measurements to determine this are lacking. Large lake temperatures are vertically and horizontally heterogeneous and vary ...

  9. Adapting silviculture to a changing climate in the southern United States

    Treesearch

    James M. Guldin

    2014-01-01

    Questions about how forests might respond to climate change are often addressed through planning, prediction, and modeling at the landscape scale. A recent synthesis of climate-change impacts on forest management and policy found that the earth is warmer than it has been in the recent past, and that 11 of the last 12 years rank among the 12 warmest since 1850 (Solomon...

  10. [Energy policy rather than climate policy].

    PubMed

    Kroonenberg, Salomon B

    2009-01-01

    Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

  11. Climate effects on historical fires (1630-1900) in Utah

    Treesearch

    Peter M. Brown; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Stanley G. Kitchen; Marc H. Weber

    2008-01-01

    We inferred climate effects on fire occurrence from 1630 to 1900 for a new set of crossdated fire-scar chronologies from 18 forested sites in Utah and one site in eastern Nevada. Years with regionally synchronous fires (31 years with fire at ≥20% of sites) occurred during drier than average summers and years with no fires at any site (100 years) were wetter...

  12. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    PubMed

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

  13. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale

    PubMed Central

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change. PMID:27100667

  14. Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds

    Treesearch

    Martin Wilmking; Glenn P. Juday; Valerie A. Barber; Harold S.J. Zald

    2004-01-01

    Northern and high-latitude alpine treelines are generally thought to be limited by available warmth. Most studies of tree-growth-climate interaction at treeline as well as climate reconstructions using dendrochronology report positive growth response of treeline trees to warmer temperatures. However, population-wide responses of treeline trees to climate remain largely...

  15. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Treesearch

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  16. Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

  17. White spruce meets black spruce: dispersal, postfire establishment, and growth in a warming climate

    Treesearch

    C. Wirth; J.W. Lichstein; J. Dushoff; A. Chen; F.S.III. Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Local distributions of black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) are largely determined by edaphic and topographic factors in the interior of Alaska, with black spruce dominant on moist permafrost sites and white spruce dominant on drier upland sites. Given the recent evidence for climate warming and...

  18. Learning to Be Drier: A Case Study of Adult and Community Learning in the Australian Riverland

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Mike; Schulz, Christine

    2009-01-01

    This article explores the adult and community learning associated with "learning to be drier" in the Riverland region of South Australia. Communities in the Riverland are currently adjusting and making changes to their understandings and practices as part of learning to live with less water. The analysis of adult and community learning…

  19. Climatic differentiation in polyploid apomictic Ranunculus auricomus complex in Europe.

    PubMed

    Paule, Juraj; Dunkel, Franz G; Schmidt, Marco; Gregor, Thomas

    2018-05-21

    Polyploidy and apomixis are important factors influencing plant distributions often resulting in range shifts, expansions and geographical parthenogenesis. We used the Ranunculus auricomus complex as a model to asses if the past and present distribution and climatic preferences were determined by these phenomena. Ecological differentiation among diploids and polyploids was tested by comparing the sets of climatic variables and distribution modelling using 191 novel ploidy estimations and 561 literature data. Significant differences in relative genome size on the diploid level were recorded between the "auricomus" and "cassubicus" groups and several new diploid occurrences were found in Slovenia and Hungary. The current distribution of diploids overlapped with the modelled paleodistribution (22 kyr BP), except Austria and the Carpathians, which are proposed to be colonized later on from refugia in the Balkans. Current and historical presence of diploids from the R. auricomus complex is suggested also for the foothills of the Caucasus. Based on comparisons of the climatic preferences polyploids from the R. auricomus complex occupy slightly drier and colder habitats than the diploids. The change of reproductive mode and selection due to competition with the diploid ancestors may have facilitated the establishment of polyploids within the R. auricomus complex in environments slightly cooler and drier, than those tolerated by diploid ancestors. Much broader distribution of polyploid apomicts may have been achieved due to faster colonization mediated by uniparental reproductive system.

  20. Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

  1. Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate.

    PubMed

    D'Orangeville, L; Duchesne, L; Houle, D; Kneeshaw, D; Côté, B; Pederson, N

    2016-06-17

    High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Vulnerabilities and adapting irrigated and rainfed cotton to climate change in the lower Mississippi Delta Region

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Overdependence on fossil fuels for human energy needs continues to emitpotential greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere leading to a warmer climate over the earth. Predicting the impacts of climate change (CC) on food and fiber production systems in the future is essential for divising adaptati...

  3. Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

    PubMed

    Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

    2017-04-01

    Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  4. Photosynthetic capacity and leaf nitrogen decline along a controlled climate gradient in provenances of two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

    PubMed

    Crous, Kristine Y; Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Sharwood, Robert E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Ghannoum, Oula

    2018-05-27

    Climate is an important factor limiting tree distributions and adaptation to different thermal environments may influence how tree populations respond to climate warming. Given the current rate of warming, it has been hypothesized that tree populations in warmer, more thermally stable climates may have limited capacity to respond physiologically to warming compared to populations from cooler, more seasonal climates. We determined in a controlled environment how several provenances of widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis adjusted their photosynthetic capacity to +3.5°C warming along their native distribution range (~16-38°S) and whether climate of seed origin of the provenances influenced their response to different growth temperatures. We also tested how temperature optima (T opt ) of photosynthesis and J max responded to higher growth temperatures. Our results showed increased photosynthesis rates at a standardized temperature with warming in temperate provenances, while rates in tropical provenances were reduced by about 40% compared to their temperate counterparts. Temperature optima of photosynthesis increased as provenances were exposed to warmer growth temperatures. Both species had ~30% reduced photosynthetic capacity in tropical and subtropical provenances related to reduced leaf nitrogen and leaf Rubisco content compared to temperate provenances. Tropical provenances operated closer to their thermal optimum and came within 3% of the T opt of J max during the daily temperature maxima. Hence, further warming may negatively affect C uptake and tree growth in warmer climates, whereas eucalypts in cooler climates may benefit from moderate warming. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Oxygen isotope records of Holocene climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Pompeani, David P.; Abbott, Mark B.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Finkenbinder, Matthew S.; Mihindukulasooriya, Lorita N.; Hillman, Aubrey L.

    2016-06-01

    Oxygen isotope (δ18O) measurements of authigenic carbonate from Cleland Lake (southeastern British Columbia), Paradise Lake (central British Columbia), and Lime Lake (eastern Washington) provide a ∼9000 year Holocene record of precipitation-evaporation balance variations in the Pacific Northwest. Both Cleland Lake and Paradise Lake are small, surficially closed-basin systems with no active inflows or outflows. Lime Lake is surficially open with a seasonally active overflow. Water isotope values from Cleland and Paradise plot along the local evaporation line, indicating that precipitation-evaporation balance is a strong influence on lake hydrology. In contrast, Lime Lake water isotope values plot on the local meteoric water line, signifying minimal influence by evaporation. To infer past hydrologic balance variations at a high temporal resolution, we sampled the Cleland, Paradise, and Lime Lake sediment cores at 1-60 mm intervals (∼3-33 years per sample on average) and measured the isotopic composition of fine-grained (<63 μm) authigenic CaCO3 in each sample. Negative δ18O values, which indicate wetter conditions in closed-basin lakes, occur in Cleland Lake sediment from 7600 to 2200 years before present (yr BP), and are followed by more positive δ18O values, which suggest drier conditions, after 2200 yr BP. Highly negative δ18O values in the Cleland Lake record centered on ∼2400 yr BP suggest that lake levels were high (and that the lake may have been overflowing) at this time as a result of a substantially wetter climate. Similarly, Paradise Lake sediment δ18O values are relatively low from 7600 to 4000 yr BP and increase from ∼4000 to 3000 yr BP and from ∼2000 yr BP to present, indicating that climate became drier from the middle through the late Holocene. The δ18O record from Lime Lake, which principally reflects changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation, exhibits less variability than the closed-basin lake records and follows a

  6. Climate change and marine ecosystems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, F.

    2013-12-01

    Impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems are pervasive. Those associated with the interannual El Ni~no phenomena are the most studied and better understood. Longer term variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) have become more evident as the present-day instrumental record has increased in length. The biological (chlorophyll to fish) and chemical (nutrients, oxygen, carbon) consequences of these climate-driven variations are discussed with an emphasis on the eastern and equatorial Pacific. During warmer periods biological productivity in the eastern Pacific is reduced and larger mobile organisms dramatically change their abundance and/or geographic distributions. At the same time biological productivity in the western Pacific increases highlighting that present (and future) climate-driven changes in biological productivity and chemical distributions are not (and will not) be uniform. The presentation documents present day variations using global scale information from satellites and in situ databases, model simulations and data collected by intensive local time series. Paradoxically longer term changes associated with phenomena like the Little Ice Age (LIA), captured in the sedimentary record, do not seem to follow the same warm (poor), cold (productive) patterns in the eastern Pacific, in fact these are reversed. The presentation ends with speculation regarding long term changes associated with a warmer world.

  7. The climate of the Common Era off the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abrantes, Fátima; Rodrigues, Teresa; Rufino, Marta; Salgueiro, Emília; Oliveira, Dulce; Gomes, Sandra; Oliveira, Paulo; Costa, Ana; Mil-Homens, Mário; Drago, Teresa; Naughton, Filipa

    2017-12-01

    The Mediterranean region is a climate hot spot, sensitive not only to global warming but also to water availability. In this work we document major temperature and precipitation changes in the Iberian Peninsula and margin during the last 2000 years and propose an interplay of the North Atlantic internal variability with the three atmospheric circulation modes (ACMs), (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), east atlantic (EA) and Scandinavia (SCAND)) to explain the detected climate variability. We present reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST derived from alkenones) and on-land precipitation (estimated from higher plant n-alkanes and pollen data) in sedimentary sequences recovered along the Iberian Margin between the south of Portugal (Algarve) and the northwest of Spain (Galiza) (36 to 42° N). A clear long-term cooling trend, from 0 CE to the beginning of the 20th century, emerges in all SST records and is considered to be a reflection of the decrease in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation that began after the Holocene optimum. Multi-decadal/centennial SST variability follows other records from Spain, Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Warm SSTs throughout the first 1300 years encompass the Roman period (RP), the Dark Ages (DA) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). A cooling initiated at 1300 CE leads to 4 centuries of colder SSTs contemporary with the Little Ice Age (LIA), while a climate warming at 1800 CE marks the beginning of the modern/Industrial Era. Novel results include two distinct phases in the MCA: an early period (900-1100 years) characterized by intense precipitation/flooding and warm winters but a cooler spring-fall season attributed to the interplay of internal oceanic variability with a positive phase in the three modes of atmospheric circulation (NAO, EA and SCAND). The late MCA is marked by cooler and relatively drier winters and a warmer spring-fall season consistent with a shift to a negative mode of the SCAND. The Industrial Era

  8. Climate changes, shifting ranges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romañach, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Even a fleeting mention of the Everglades conjures colorful images of alligators, panthers, flamingos, and manatees. Over the centuries, this familiar cast of characters has become synonymous with life in south Florida. But the workings of a changing climate have the potential to significantly alter the menagerie of animals that call this area home. Global projections suggest south Florida wildlife will need to contend with higher temperatures, drier conditions, and rising seas in the years ahead. Recent modeling efforts shed new light on the potential outcomes these changes may have for threatened and endangered species in the area.

  9. Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

    1999-01-01

    We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

  10. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Pacific Islands

    Treesearch

    Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

    2011-01-01

    The Pacific islands face a variety of impacts as a result of climate change. Already-observed changes include increased average temperatures, coral bleaching, sea level rise and associated coastal erosion, increased intensity of cyclones, and a trend toward drier conditions. In the next century, sea level rise and associated erosion are expected to shrink shorelines...

  11. Photosynthetic Response of Poplars (Populus) to Climatic Stressors: Investigating Isoprene's Role in Increasing Tolerance to Temperature and Atmospheric Water Stress in Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeiffer, A. W.; Minor, R. L.; Heard, M. M.; Barron-Gafford, G.

    2014-12-01

    The southwestern United States is expected to become warmer and drier under future climate projections. The way in which plant and ecosystems respond to these changes is valuable for predicting carbon and water cycling, ecosystem resilience, phenology, and future agriculture, including biofuel production. We examined the interacting effects of dominant climate stressors--vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature--on photosynthesis. Specifically, we tested whether or not plant production of the terpene isoprene imparts heat and water-stress tolerance. Within an experimental common garden of poplars (Populus) at University of Arizona's Biosphere 2 we measured four separate genetic lines - two that retained isoprene production capacity and two that had this gene "knocked out". VPD was altered at temperatures of 30, 35, and 40C to present both heat and aridity stresses. Maximum photosynthetic capacity (Amax), the VPD at which Amax occurred (VPDopt), and the VPD range between Amax and ninety percent of Amax (Ω90) were calculated to quantify how VPD differentially affected the lines. Amax was significantly lower in knockout lines than in control lines. Moreover, the difference in Amax between lines increased from 19.3% at 30C to 28.4% at 35C to 39.0% at 40C, indicating that trees without isoprene production are less equipped to handle hot and dry conditions. Ω90 and VPDopt response were not the same, though. Isoprene knockouts had significantly higher VPD optimums (1.9749 kPA vs. 1.6451 kPa) compared to isoprene-producing lines. Although maximum photosynthesis is diminished without isoprene production under water and heat stress, isoprene knockout lines were still fairly active at a high VPD and under a wide range of VPD conditions. Beyond advancing our basic understanding of plant ecophysiology, these results will inform the potential use of poplars as a source of biofuel production across a range of current and projected climate conditions.

  12. Impact of climate change on projected runoff from mountain snowpack of the King’s Rivershed in California

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Central Valley of California, like most dryland agricultural areas in the Southwest United States, relies heavily on winter snowpack for water resources. Projections of future climate in the Sierra Mountains of California calls for a warmer climate regime that will impact the snowpack in the Sie...

  13. From cold to hot: Climatic effects and productivity in Wisconsin dairy farms.

    PubMed

    Qi, L; Bravo-Ureta, B E; Cabrera, V E

    2015-12-01

    This study examined the effects of climatic conditions on dairy farm productivity using panel data for the state of Wisconsin along with alternative stochastic frontier models. A noteworthy feature of this analysis is that Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing area where winters are typically very cold and snowy and summers are hot and humid. Thus, it is an ideal geographical region for examining the effects of a range of climatic factors on dairy production. We identified the effects of temperature and precipitation, both jointly and separately, on milk output. The analysis showed that increasing temperature in summer or in autumn is harmful for dairy production, whereas warmer winters and warmer springs are beneficial. In contrast, more precipitation had a consistent adverse effect on dairy productivity. Overall, the analysis showed that over the past 17 yr, changes in climatic conditions have had a negative effect on Wisconsin dairy farms. Alternative scenarios predict that climate change would lead to a 5 to 11% reduction in dairy production per year between 2020 and 2039 after controlling for other factors. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Solar variability and climate change: An historical perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldman, Theodore S.

    There is nothing new about the debate over the Sun's influence on terrestrial climate.As early as the late 18th century, widespread concern for the deterioration of the Earth's climate led to speculation about the Sun's role in climate change [Feldman, 1993; Fleming, 1990]. Drawing analogies with variations in the brightness of stars, the British astronomer William Herschel suggested that greater sunspot activity would result in warmer terrestrial climates. Herschel supported his hypothesis by referring to price series for wheat published in Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations [Hufbauer, 1991]. Later, the eminent American physicist Joseph Henry demonstrated by thermopile measurements that, contrary to Herschel's assumption, sunspots were cooler than the unblemished portions of the solar disk.

  15. Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M. K.; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J.; Shanley, James B.

    2017-01-01

    A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO2effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a

  16. The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

    PubMed

    Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

    2018-05-01

    Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic

  17. Modeled ecohydrological responses to climate change at seven small watersheds in the northeastern United States.

    PubMed

    Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K; Adams, Mary Beth; Burns, Douglas; Fernandez, Ivan; Mitchell, Myron J; Shanley, James B

    2017-02-01

    A cross-site analysis was conducted on seven diverse, forested watersheds in the northeastern United States to evaluate hydrological responses (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, seasonal and annual streamflow, and water stress) to projections of future climate. We used output from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs; CCSM4, HadGEM2-CC, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3) included in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, coupled with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 and 4.5). The coarse resolution AOGCMs outputs were statistically downscaled using an asynchronous regional regression model to provide finer resolution future climate projections as inputs to the deterministic dynamic ecosystem model PnET-BGC. Simulation results indicated that projected warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons in the northeastern United States are anticipated to increase evapotranspiration across all sites, although invoking CO 2 effects on vegetation (growth enhancement and increases in water use efficiency (WUE)) diminish this response. The model showed enhanced evapotranspiration resulted in drier growing season conditions across all sites and all scenarios in the future. Spruce-fir conifer forests have a lower optimum temperature for photosynthesis, making them more susceptible to temperature stress than more tolerant hardwood species, potentially giving hardwoods a competitive advantage in the future. However, some hardwood forests are projected to experience seasonal water stress, despite anticipated increases in precipitation, due to the higher temperatures, earlier loss of snow packs, longer growing seasons, and associated water deficits. Considering future CO 2 effects on WUE in the model alleviated water stress across all sites. Modeled streamflow responses were highly variable, with some sites showing significant increases in annual water yield, while others showed decreases. This variability in streamflow responses poses a

  18. Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

    PubMed Central

    Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

    2016-01-01

    Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

  19. Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

    2016-08-01

    Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

  20. Phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Pohl) Toledo (Melastomataceae), an endangered tree species from rocky savannas, suggests bidirectional expansion due to climate cooling in the Pleistocene

    PubMed Central

    Collevatti, Rosane Garcia; de Castro, Thaís Guimarães; de Souza Lima, Jacqueline; de Campos Telles, Mariana Pires

    2012-01-01

    Many endemic species present disjunct geographical distribution; therefore, they are suitable models to test hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms involved in the origin of disjunct distributions in these habitats. We studied the genetic structure and phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Melastomataceae), endemic to rocky savannas in Central Brazil, to test hypothesis of vicariance and dispersal in the origin of the disjunct geographical distribution. We sampled 474 individuals from the three localities where the species is reported: Serra dos Pirineus, Serra Dourada, and Serra de Natividade. Analyses were based on the polymorphisms at cpDNA and on nuclear microsatellite loci. To test for vicariance and dispersal we constructed a median-joining network and performed an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). We also tested population bottleneck and estimated demographic parameters and time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) using coalescent analyses. A remarkable differentiation among populations was found. No significant effect of population expansion was detected and coalescent analyses showed a negligible gene flow among populations and an ancient coalescence time for chloroplast genome. Our results support that the disjunct distribution of T. papyrus may represent a climatic relict. With an estimated TMRCA dated from ∼836.491 ± 107.515 kyr BP (before present), we hypothesized that the disjunct distribution may be the outcome of bidirectional expansion of the geographical distribution favored by the drier and colder conditions that prevailed in much of Brazil during the Pre-Illinoian glaciation, followed by the retraction as the climate became warmer and moister. PMID:22837846

  1. Climate change and tectonic activity during the early Pliocene Warm Period from the ostracod record at Lake Qinghai, northeastern Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Fengyan; An, Zhisheng; Chang, Hong; Dodson, John; Qiang, Xiaoke; Yan, Hong; Dong, Jibao; Song, Yougui; Fu, Chaofeng; Li, Xiangzhong

    2017-05-01

    The Early Pliocene Warm Period (EPWP, 5-3 Ma) is sometimes thought to be a useful analogue for a future warmer world, and thus the boundary conditions and drivers of climate in the EPWP may provide valuable lessons for understanding how a future warmer world might unfold. Lake Qinghai is located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and is affected by both Monsoon climate and Westerlies circulation. It is sensitive to the climate drivers of these systems. Its sediments, accumulated over the Cenozoic period, are a rich source of information for climate, tectonics and environmental changes of the period. We present a high-resolution ostracod record from a Lake Qinghai sediment core with a record of the period 5.10-2.60 Ma, thus covering the EPWP. Ostracods appear at 4.63 Ma and are most abundant until 3.58 Ma, while a body of water was present at the core site. This suggests a phase of humid climate and an intensified Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM), which is consistent with a warmer and wetter climate in the early Pliocene. Within this period the ostracod record shows some variabilities in lake level with deeper periods suggesting more intense ASM compared to those with shallower water. The disappearance of ostracods at 3.58 Ma may provide evidence for the uplift of Qinghai Nanshan (south of Qinghai Lake) since this is when the ASM intensified.

  2. Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

    PubMed

    Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

    2016-11-01

    Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  3. Climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age based on ostracod faunas and shell geochemistry from Biscayne Bay, Florida: Chapter 14

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, Thomas M.; Wingard, G. Lynn; Dwyer, Gary S.; Swart, Peter K.; Willard, Debra A.; Albietz, Jessica

    2012-01-01

    An 800-year-long environmental history of Biscayne Bay, Florida, is reconstructed from ostracod faunal and shell geochemical (oxygen, carbon isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios) studies of sediment cores from three mudbanks in the central and southern parts of the bay. Using calibrations derived from analyses of modern Biscayne and Florida Bay ostracods, palaeosalinity oscillations associated with changes in precipitation were identified. These oscillations reflect multidecadal- and centennial-scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Evidence suggests wetter regional climate during the MCA and drier conditions during the LIA. In addition, twentieth century anthropogenic modifications to Everglades hydrology influenced bay circulation and/or processes controlling carbon isotopic composition.

  4. Spatial and Temporal Climatic Variation in Coastal Tanzania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohli, R. V.; Ates, S.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Polito, M. J.; Midway, S. R.; Gold, A.; Castañeda-Moya, E.; Uchida, E.; Suwa, M.; Mangora, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic controls are particularly important to the natural and human systems in coastal Tanzania, where mangrove vegetation is a major component of world-renowned biodiversity. This research provides an improved understanding of the climatic features and forcing mechanisms that support the critical mangroves of Tanzania and the livelihoods of its populace, using updated and complete datasets. Updated data confirm that coastal Tanzania falls in the tropical wet-dry Köppen-Geiger climatic type, except for the extreme north, where tropical rain forest exists north of Pangani. The northeast monsoon, known as the kaskazi, largely corresponds to the rainy November-December and March-May months. The southeast monsoon - known as the kusi - overlaps with the drier June-September. Results suggest that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are key modulators of precipitation variability in the entire area. More specifically, September-November positive precipitation anomalies occur during positive IOD, especially when combined with El Niño, with slightly negative anomalies during negative IOD, especially when combined with La Niña. The rest of the year tends to show similar precipitation during both IOD phases (March-August) or less precipitation during the positive phase (December-February). Because the literature suggests likelihood of more frequent positive IOD mode and a strengthened relationship of these events to warm-ENSO events, changes to the hydrologic cycle in east Africa may be likely in the future, with a potential for an expanded secondary rainy season and a drier "saddle" between the secondary and primary rainy seasons (i.e., December-February). Therefore, future research should investigate in more detail the influence of the IOD and ENSO on various components of the climatic water balance. Results may be useful to earth, environmental, and social scientists as they seek further understanding of the drivers of ecological and

  5. Drier climate and productivity of operational poplar plantation - four years of throughfall exclusion experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orsag, M.; Fischer, M.; Trnka, M.

    2016-12-01

    The production of woody biomass in short rotation woody coppice (SRWC) is considered as a suitable source of renewable energy for climate conditions prevailing in central European countries. The productivity of SRWC is largely dependent on the environmental conditions and the biomass yield can be severely compromised when water supply is limited. One of the climate change consequences predicted for Central Europe is the increasing frequency and duration of drought spells as a result of increased air temperature and temporally uneven distribution of precipitation. Therefore, a small-scale rain-throughfall exclusion experiment was established in 2011 in an operational SRWC plantation (hybrid poplar NM6) in the Bohemian-Moravian highlands (Czech Republic). Three times replicated experimental block comprised a treatment with 70 % rain-throughfall exclusion (R) and an adjacent control treatment (C) of the same size (25 m2). Above-ground biomass productivity (ABP) and soil moisture patterns were measured and evaluated during growing seasons 2011-2015. We observed high heterogeneity of soil moisture among blocks, resulting in high variability in ABP. The treatment effect was more pronounced with increasing seasonal precipitation. Generally, the R treatments showed lower ABP by 8.4 %, higher mortality by 6.7 % and strong competitive relationships among neighboring trees, which led to formation of few dominant trees, comprising 30 % of the total biomass at particular plot, accounting for 50 % of the annual ABP per 25 m2 plot. Our results suggests considerable resilience of hybrid poplar NM6 to decreased soil-water availability over long-term, while keeping minimal annual ABP of about 4.5 ton hectare (dry matter).

  6. Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

    2012-07-10

    Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

  7. Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

    2012-01-01

    Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

  8. Climate change in the North American Arctic: A one health perspective

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and sub-Arctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-...

  9. RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL CHANGES IN CARBON STORAGE IN ARCTIC TUNDRA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Surface air temperature in arctic regions has increased since pre-industrial times, raising concerns that warmer and possibly drier conditions have increased soil decomposition rates, thereby stimulating the release to the atmosphere of the large stores of carbon (C) in arctic so...

  10. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    PubMed

    Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-06-03

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

  11. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

    PubMed Central

    Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

  12. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  13. Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leterme, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The

  14. Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change.

    PubMed

    Williams, C R; Mincham, G; Faddy, H; Viennet, E; Ritchie, S A; Harley, D

    2016-10-01

    Dengue is the world's most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

  15. Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

    1997-01-01

    Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be

  16. Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, W.C.; Millett, B.V.; Gilmanov, T.; Voldseth, R.A.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Naugle, D.E.

    2005-01-01

    The prairie pothole region (PPR) lies in the heart of North America and contains millions of glacially formed, depressional wetlands embedded in a landscape matrix of natural grassland and agriculture. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and produce 50% to 80% of the continent's ducks. We explored the broad spatial and temporal patterns across the PPR between climate and wetland water levels and vegetation by applying a wetland simulation model (WETSIM) to 18 stations with 95-year weather records. Simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the center of the PPR (the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan) to the wetter eastern and northern fringes, areas currently less productive or where most wetlands have been drained. Unless these wetlands are protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl against future climate warming. WETSIM can assist wetland managers in allocating restoration dollars in an uncertain climate future.

  17. Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

    2013-12-01

    Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at

  18. Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

  19. Nitrogen partitioning in oak leaves depends on species, provenance, climate conditions and soil type.

    PubMed

    Hu, B; Simon, J; Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Siegwolf, R; Rennenberg, H

    2013-01-01

    Climate-tolerant tree species and/or provenances have to be selected to ensure the high productivity of managed forests in Central Europe under the prognosticated climate changes. For this purpose, we studied the responses of saplings from three oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) and provenances of different climatic origin (i.e. low or high rainfall, low or high temperature habitats) with regard to leaf nitrogen (N) composition as a measure of N nutrition. Saplings were grown in model ecosystems on either calcareous or acidic soil and subjected to one of four treatments (control, drought, air warming or a combination of drought and air warming). Across species, oak N metabolism responded to the influence of drought and/or air warming with an increase in leaf amino acid N concentration at the expense of structural N. Moreover, provenances or species from drier habitats were more tolerant to the climate conditions applied, as indicated by an increase in amino acid N (comparing species) or soluble protein N (comparing provenances within a species). Furthermore, amino acid N concentrations of oak leaves were significantly higher on calcareous compared to acidic soil. From these results, it can be concluded that seeds from provenances or species originating from drier habitats and - if available - from calcareous soil types may provide a superior seed source for future forest establishment. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  20. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

  1. Climate Change Impacts on Texas Water: A White Paper Assessment of the Past, Present and Future and Recommendations for Action

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Banner, Jay L.; Jackson, Charles S.; Yang, Zong-Liang

    2010-09-01

    Texas comprises the eastern portion of the Southwest region, where the convergence of climatological and geopolitical forces has the potential to put extreme stress on water resources. Geologic records indicate that Texas experienced large climate changes on millennial time scales in the past, and over the last thousand years, tree-ring records indicate that there were significant periods of drought in Texas. These droughts were of longer duration than the 1950s 'drought of record' that is commonly used in planning, and they occurred independently of human-induced global climate change. Although there has been a negligible net temperature increase in Texas overmore » the past century, temperatures have increased more significantly over the past three decades. Under essentially all climate model projections, Texas is susceptible to significant climate change in the future. Most projections for the 21st century show that with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, there will be an increase in temperatures across Texas and a shift to a more arid average climate. Studies agree that Texas will likely become significantly warmer and drier, yet the magnitude, timing, and regional distribution of these changes are uncertain. There is a large uncertainty in the projected changes in precipitation for Texas for the 21st century. In contrast, the more robust projected increase in temperature with its effect on evaporation, which is a dominant component in the region's hydrologic cycle, is consistent with model projections of frequent and extended droughts throughout the state. For these reasons, we recommend that Texas invest resources to investigate and anticipate the impacts of climate change on Texas water resources, with the goal of providing data to inform resource planning. This investment should support development of (1) research programs that provide policy-relevant science; (2) education programs to engage future researchers and policy-makers; and (3

  2. Climate's Role in Terroir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, G. V.

    2012-12-01

    The marriage between a given winegrape cultivar planted in its ideal climate, over favorable topography and physical soil characteristics, combine to create the potential to produce fine wine. The French term terroir embodies this potential as a holistic concept that relates to both environmental and cultural factors that together influence the grape growing to wine production continuum. While the landscape, geology, soil, and climate strongly interact to influence the vine's balance of nutrients and water, climate is clearly of prevailing importance in that it limits where grapes can be grown at both the global and site scale. This talk will review the nature of climate's role in terroir through a discussion of the structure of climate in wine regions globally and how this structure influences cultivar suitability. Furthermore, the talk will use two of the most commonly planted red wine cultivars as examples - Pinot Noir and Cabernet Sauvignon - providing details on the historic, current, and future climate structure of wine regions growing these cultivars. In general the examination reveals that cool climate cultivars tend to have a narrower climate niche for high quality wine production, than do warmer climate cultivars, with less range of adaptation. Furthermore, the range of the climate suitability of these two cultivars shows that potentially new terroirs for each are waiting to be found.

  3. Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

    2017-12-01

    We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

  4. Bacterial diversity is strongly associated with historical penguin activity in an Antarctic lake sediment profile.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Renbin; Shi, Yu; Ma, Dawei; Wang, Can; Xu, Hua; Chu, Haiyan

    2015-11-25

    Current penguin activity in Antarctica affects the geochemistry of sediments and their microbial communities; the effects of historical penguin activity are less well understood. Here, bacterial diversity in ornithogenic sediment was investigated using high-throughput pyrosequencing. The relative abundances of dominant phyla were controlled by the amount of historical penguin guano deposition. Significant positive correlations were found between both the bacterial richness and diversity, and the relative penguin number (p < 0.01); this indicated that historical penguin activity drove the vertical distribution of the bacterial communities. The lowest relative abundances of individual phyla corresponded to lowest number of penguin population at 1,800-2,300 yr BP during a drier and colder period; the opposite was observed during a moister and warmer climate (1,400-1,800 yr BP). This study shows that changes in the climate over millennia affected penguin populations and the outcomes of these changes affect the sediment bacterial community today.

  5. Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecoregion: Chapter 26 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruhlman, Jana; Gass, Leila; Middleton, Barry

    2012-01-01

    Situated between ecoregions of distinctly different topographies and climates, the Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecoregion represents a large area of approximately 192,869 km2 (74,467 mi2) that stretches across northern Arizona, central and northwestern New Mexico, and parts of southwestern Colorado; in addition, a small part extends into southeastern Nevada (fig. 1) (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997). Forested, mountainous terrain borders the ecoregion on the northeast (Southern Rockies Ecoregion) and southwest (Arizona/New Mexico Mountains Ecoregion). Warmer and drier climates exist to the south (Chihuahuan Deserts Ecoregion) and west (Mojave Basin and Range Ecoregion). The semiarid grasslands of the western Great Plains are to the east (Southwestern Tablelands Ecoregion), and the tablelands of the Colorado Plateau in Utah and western Colorado lie to the north (Colorado Plateaus Ecoregion). The Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecoregion occupies a significant portion of the southern half of the Colorado Plateau.

  6. Bacterial diversity is strongly associated with historical penguin activity in an Antarctic lake sediment profile

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Renbin; Shi, Yu; Ma, Dawei; Wang, Can; Xu, Hua; Chu, Haiyan

    2015-01-01

    Current penguin activity in Antarctica affects the geochemistry of sediments and their microbial communities; the effects of historical penguin activity are less well understood. Here, bacterial diversity in ornithogenic sediment was investigated using high-throughput pyrosequencing. The relative abundances of dominant phyla were controlled by the amount of historical penguin guano deposition. Significant positive correlations were found between both the bacterial richness and diversity, and the relative penguin number (p < 0.01); this indicated that historical penguin activity drove the vertical distribution of the bacterial communities. The lowest relative abundances of individual phyla corresponded to lowest number of penguin population at 1,800–2,300 yr BP during a drier and colder period; the opposite was observed during a moister and warmer climate (1,400–1,800 yr BP). This study shows that changes in the climate over millennia affected penguin populations and the outcomes of these changes affect the sediment bacterial community today. PMID:26601753

  7. Vegetation, substrate, and eolian sediment transport at Teesto Wash, Navajo Nation, 2009-2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Draut, Amy E.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Amoroso, Lee

    2012-01-01

    On the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States, warming temperatures and recent drought have increased eolian (windblown) sediment mobility such that large, migrating sand dunes affect grazing lands, housing, and road access. We present an assessment of seasonal variations in sand transport, mobility, and ground cover (vegetation and substrate) within a 0.2-km2 study area near Teesto Wash, southern Navajo Nation, as part of a multiyear study measuring the effects of drought on landscape stability. Sand mobility in the study area decreased substantially as one year (2010) with near-normal monsoon rainfall somewhat abated a decade-long drought, temporarily doubling vegetation cover. The invasive annual plant Russian thistle (Salsola sp.), in particular, thrived after the monsoon rains of 2010. Vegetation that grew during that year with adequate rain died off rapidly during drier conditions in 2011 and 2012, and the proportion of bare, open sand area increased steadily after summer 2010. We infer that isolated seasonal increases in rainfall will not improve landscape stability in the long term because sustained increase in perennial plants, which are more effective than annual plants at stabilizing sand against wind erosion, requires multiple consecutive seasons of adequate rain. On the basis of climate projections, a warmer, drier climate and potentially enhanced sediment supply from ephemeral washes may further increase eolian sediment transport and dune activity, worsening the present challenges to people living in this region. Connections between climate, vegetation cover, and eolian sediment erodibility in this region also are highly relevant for studies in other regions worldwide with similar environmental characteristics.

  8. The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Haak, A.L.; Williams, J.E.; Isaak, D.; Todd, A.; Muhlfeld, C.C.; Kershner, J.L.; Gresswell, R.E.; Hostetler, S.W.; Neville, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier

  9. Admission temperatures following radiant warmer or incubator transport for preterm infants <28 weeks: a randomised study.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Michael P; Bold, Geoff T

    2007-07-01

    Sixty two infants <28 weeks were occlusively wrapped and randomised to radiant warmer or incubator transport to the neonatal unit. Median axillary temperature on arrival was 36.8 degrees C in both groups. Target temperatures (36.5-37.5 degrees C) were achieved in 60% of the incubator group compared to 75% in the warmer group (not statistically significant). While powered to detect a 35% difference between warming devices, a more modest difference is not excluded.

  10. Resilience landscapes for Congo basin rainforests vs. climate and management impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Gautam, Sishir; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Stanzl, Patrick; Mosnier, Aline; Obersteiner, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, and construct resilience landscapes for current day conditions vs. climate and management impacts.

  11. Learning to Be Drier in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin: Setting the Scene for This Research Volume

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Golding, Barry; Campbell, Coral

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the authors set the scene for this research volume. They sought to emphasize and broaden their interest and concern about their "Learning to be drier" theme in this edition to the 77 per cent of Australians who live within 50 km of the Australian coast, the majority of whom also live in major cities and urban complexes.…

  12. Radiant energy and insensible water loss in the premature newborn infant nursed under a radiant warmer.

    PubMed

    Baumgart, S

    1982-10-01

    Radiant warmers are a powerful and efficient source of heat serving to warm the cold-stressed infant acutely and to provide uninterrupted maintenance of body temperature despite a multiplicity of nursing, medical, and surgical procedures required to care for the critically ill premature newborn in today's intensive care nursery. A recognized side-effect of radiant warmer beds is the now well-documented increase in insensible water loss through evaporation from an infant's skin. Particularly the very-low-birth-weight, severely premature, and critically ill neonate is subject to this increase in evaporative water loss. The clinician caring for the infant is faced with the difficult problem of fluid and electrolyte balance, which requires vigilant monitoring of all parameters of fluid homeostasis. Compounding these difficulties, other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (for example, phototherapy) may affect an infant's fluid metabolism by mechanisms that are not well understood. The role of plastic heat shielding in reducing large insensible losses in infants nursed on radiant warmer beds is currently under intense investigation. Apparently, convective air currents and not radiant heat energy may be the cause of the observed increase in insensible water loss in the intensive care nursery. A thin plastic blanket may be effective in reducing evaporative water loss by diminishing an infant's exposure to convective air currents while being nursed on an open radiant warmer bed. A rigid plastic body hood, although effective as a radiant heat shield, is not as effective in preventing exposure to convection in the intensive care nursery and, therefore, is not as effective as the thin plastic blanket in reducing insensible water loss. Care should be exercised in determining the effect of heat shielding on all parameters of heat exchange (convection, evaporation, and radiation) before application is made to the critically ill premature infant nursed on an open radiant

  13. Changes to Sub-daily Rainfall Patterns in a Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, S.; Evans, J. P.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

    2012-12-01

    An algorithm is developed for disaggregating daily rainfall into sub-daily rainfall 'fragments' (continuous high temporal-resolution rainfall sequences whose total depth sums to the daily rainfall amount) under a future, warmer climate. The basis of the algorithm is to re-sample sub-daily fragments from the historical record conditional on the total daily rainfall amount and a range of temperature-based atmospheric predictors. The logic is that as the atmosphere warms, future rainfall patterns will be more reflective of historical rainfall patterns which occurred on warmer days at the same location, or at locations which have an atmospheric temperature profile more representative of expected future atmospheric conditions. It was found that the daily to sub-daily scaling relationship varied significantly by season and by location, with rainfall patterns on warmer seasons or at warmer locations typically exhibiting higher rainfall intensity occurring over shorter periods within a day, compared with cooler seasons and locations. Importantly, by regressing against temperature-based atmospheric covariates, this effect was substantially reduced, suggesting that the approach also may be valid when extrapolating to a future climate. An adjusted method of fragments algorithm was then applied to nine stations around Australia, with the results showing that when holding total daily rainfall constant, the maximum intensity of short duration rainfall increased by a median of about 5% per degree for the maximum 6 minute burst, and 3.5% for the maximum one hour burst, whereas the fraction of the day with no rainfall increased by a median of 1.5%. This highlights that a large proportion of the change to the distribution of rainfall is likely to occur at sub-daily timescales, with significant implications for many hydrological systems.

  14. Is Oklahoma getting drier?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; Sun, Wenbo; Hu, Yongxiang; Liu, Zhaoyan; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice)

    2013-06-01

    Land surface hydrology is important to regional climate, ecosystem, agriculture, and even human activities. Changes in soil moisture can produce considerable impacts on socioeconomics. Analysis of assimilation model results, especially those from the Community Land Model, shows that soil moisture over Oklahoma region is continuously reduced from 1980 to 2009. The potential drying trend in the Oklahoma region is evaluated by observations taken during last three decades in this study. Satellite data from Global Precipitation Climatology Project exhibit a clear precipitation decrease in the Oklahoma region during the last decade or so compared with those of two or three decades ago. Accompanying with the precipitation variation, land surface net radiation and temperature over the region are found increases by satellite and/or in-situ measurements. These changes in regional climate conditions also likely result in reduction of regional evaporation and enhancement of sensible heat transport from land surface into the atmosphere as indicated in assimilated data. These observed and modeled evidences of the changes in regional water and energy cycles lead us to conclude that the soil moisture over the Oklahoma region was reduced during the last decade. This soil moisture drop could increase a risk in water shortage for agriculture in the Oklahoma state if the dry period continues. Further investigations on the drying in the Oklahoma State or even entire Southern Great Plains are needed to mitigate potential droughts, reductions in vegetation products, and other socioeconomic impacts.

  15. Quantification of climate and vegetation from southern African Middle Stone Age sites - an application using Late Pleistocene plant material from Sibudu, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruch, Angela A.; Sievers, Christine; Wadley, Lyn

    2012-06-01

    In southern Africa numerous Middle Stone Age (MSA) sites document important steps in technological and behavioural development leading to significant changes in the lifeways of modern humans. To assess whether these cultural changes and developments may be related to environmental changes we need to ascertain past environments. To do this we apply a new quantitative method, the GIS-based Coexistence Approach (CAGIS), on fossil plant material from the MSA site Sibudu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Previous qualitative environmental interpretations of the fossil fauna and flora of the site remain ambiguous. Because much of the material is anthropogenically introduced, it is difficult to distinguish between the effects of natural changes in the local vegetation and behavioural changes of the people that inhabited the shelter. CAGIS can be applied to such biased assemblages and seems to be an adequate method to directly quantify palaeoclimate and vegetation parameters at an archaeological site. The CAGIS analysis shows that during the Howiesons Poort (HP) Industry winters were slightly colder and drier than present, whereas during summer, temperatures and precipitation were similar to today. Post-HP winters were drier and colder than present, presumably colder than during the HP. Summer temperatures remained the same, but summer precipitation decreased from the HP to post-HP. Vegetation cover was less than today, may be even less than during the HP. The late MSA was observably warmer than the older periods, especially during winter. At the same time summer precipitation slightly increased and vegetation became more dense, but still remained generally open similar to today's anthropogenic landscape. Generally, climatic changes are most pronouncedly reflected in winter temperature parameters, especially in minimum winter temperatures, and to a lesser extent by changes in summer precipitation. The observed ecological trends seem to be affected mainly by variations through

  16. Hybridization in a warmer world

    PubMed Central

    Chunco, Amanda J

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is profoundly affecting the evolutionary trajectory of individual species and ecological communities, in part through the creation of novel species assemblages. How climate change will influence competitive interactions has been an active area of research. Far less attention, however, has been given to altered reproductive interactions. Yet, reproductive interactions between formerly isolated species are inevitable as populations shift geographically and temporally as a result of climate change, potentially resulting in introgression, speciation, or even extinction. The susceptibility of hybridization rates to anthropogenic disturbance was first recognized in the 1930s. To date, work on anthropogenically mediated hybridization has focused primarily on either physical habitat disturbance or species invasion. Here, I review recent literature on hybridization to identify how ecological responses to climate change will increase the likelihood of hybridization via the dissolution of species barriers maintained by habitat, time, or behavior. Using this literature, I identify several cases where novel hybrid zones have recently formed, likely as a result of changing climate. Future research should focus on identifying areas and taxonomic groups where reproductive species interactions are most likely to be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, a better understanding of the evolutionary consequences of climate-mediated secondary contact is urgently needed. Paradoxically, hybridization is both a major conservation concern and an important source of novel genetic and phenotypic variation. Hybridization may therefore both contribute to increasing rates of extinction and stimulate the creation of novel phenotypes that will speed adaptation to novel climates. Predicting which result will occur following secondary contact will be an important contribution to conservation for many species. PMID:24963394

  17. Difference in tree growth responses to climate at the upper treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jianfeng; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; Liu, Puxing; Zhang, Yong; Fang, Keyan

    2008-08-01

    Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.

  18. Soil Organic Carbon and Its interaction with Minerals in Two Hillslopes with Different Climates and Erosion Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Yoo, K.; Wackett, A. A.; Gutknecht, J.; Amundson, R.; Heimsath, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate and topography have been widely recognized as important factors regulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics but their interactive effects on SOC storage and its pools remain poorly constrained. Here we aimed to evaluate SOC storages and carbon-mineral interactions along two hillslope transects with moderately different climates (MAP: 549 mm vs. 816 mm) in Southeastern Australia. We sampled soil along the convex (eroding)-to-convergent (depositional) continuum at each hillslope transect and conducted size and density fractionation of these samples. In responses to the difference in climate factor, SOC inventories of eroding soils were twice as large at the wetter site compared with the drier site but showed little difference between two sites in depositional soils. These trends in SOC inventories were primarily controlled by SOC concentrations and secondarily by soil thicknesses. Similar patterns were observed for mineral associated organic carbon (MOC), and the abundances of MOC were controlled by the two independently operating processes affecting MOC concentration and fine-heavy fraction minerals. The contents and species of secondary clay and iron oxide minerals, abundances of particulate organic carbon, and bioturbation affected MOC concentrations. In contrast, the abundances of fine-heavy fraction minerals were impacted by erosion mechanisms that uniquely responded to regional- and micro- climate conditions. Consequently, topographic influences on SOC inventories and carbon-mineral interactions were more strongly pronounced in the drier climate where vegetation and erosion mechanisms were sensitive to microclimate. Our results highlight the significance of understanding topography and erosional processes in capturing climatic effects on soil carbon dynamics.

  19. Long-term effects of climate change on carbon storage and tree species composition in a dry deciduous forest.

    PubMed

    Fekete, István; Lajtha, Kate; Kotroczó, Zsolt; Várbíró, Gábor; Varga, Csaba; Tóth, János Attila; Demeter, Ibolya; Veperdi, Gábor; Berki, Imre

    2017-08-01

    Forest vegetation and soils have been suggested as potentially important sinks for carbon (C) with appropriate management and thus are implicated as effective tools in stabilizing climate even with increasing anthropogenic release of CO 2 . Drought, however, which is often predicted to increase in models of future climate change, may limit net primary productio (NPP) of dry forest types, with unknown effects on soil C storage. We studied C dynamics of a deciduous temperate forest of Hungary that has been subject to significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature in recent decades. We resampled plots that were established in 1972 and repeated the full C inventory by analyzing more than 4 decades of data on the number of living trees, biomass of trees and shrubs, and soil C content. Our analyses show that the decline in number and biomass of oaks started around the end of the 1970s with a 71% reduction in the number of sessile oak stems by 2014. Projected growth in this forest, based on the yield table's data for Hungary, was 4.6 kg C/m 2 . Although new species emerged, this new growth and small increases in oak biomass resulted in only 1.9 kg C/m 2 increase over 41 years. The death of oaks increased inputs of coarse woody debris to the surface of the soil, much of which is still identifiable, and caused an increase of 15.5%, or 2.6 kg C/m 2 , in the top 1 m of soil. Stability of this fresh organic matter input to surface soil is unknown, but is likely to be low based on the results of a colocated woody litter decomposition study. The effects of a warmer and drier climate on the C balance of forests in this region will be felt for decades to come as woody litter inputs decay, and forest growth remains impeded. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

  1. Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

  2. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehner, F.; Coats, S.; Stocker, T. F.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Sanderson, B. M.; Raible, C.; Smerdon, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. The latter metric is motivated by recent droughts in California and the US Southwest in general, where consecutive years of moderate precipitation deficit can quickly lead to significant drought and elevated pressure on water resources. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day, an interesting result that arises from a delicate balance between increases in evaporative demand and precipitation in CESM in that region. In the Mediterranean, central Europe, and a number of other regions across the globe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain. We will therefore also discuss the robustness of results across different drought metrics as well as the model uncertainties associated with drought projections for low warming targets.

  3. Climate tolerances and trait choices shape continental patterns of urban tree biodiversity

    Treesearch

    G. Darrel Jenerette; Lorraine W. Clarke; Meghan L. Avolio; Diane E. Pataki; Thomas W. Gillespie; Stephanie Pincetl; Dave J. Nowak; Lucy R. Hutyra; Melissa McHale; Joseph P. McFadden; Michael Alonzo

    2016-01-01

    Aim. We propose and test a climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis of urban macroecological variation in which strong filtering associated with low winter temperatures restricts urban biodiversity while weak filtering associated with warmer temperatures and irrigation allows dispersal of species from a global source pool, thereby...

  4. Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change.

    PubMed

    Ernakovich, Jessica G; Hopping, Kelly A; Berdanier, Aaron B; Simpson, Rodney T; Kachergis, Emily J; Steltzer, Heidi; Wallenstein, Matthew D

    2014-10-01

    Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature-limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

    2018-04-01

    Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations

  6. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

    PubMed

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-09-13

    Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  7. Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

    2017-08-01

    Photosynthetic O2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q10 = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O2 production in a warmer ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

  8. Pollen record from Ka'au Crater, Oahu, Hawaii: Evidence for a dry glacial maximum

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hotchkiss, S.C.; Juvik, J.O.

    Fossil pollen from a 3.5 m-long core from Ka'au Crater, Hawaii (elev. 460 m), yields a ca. 23,000-year record of regional vegetation history. Results indicate a full-glacial period drier and possibly cooler than present, a warmer and wetter early Holocene, and a somewhat drier late Holocene; this sequence agrees with earlier work by Selling (1948) on other islands. The oldest zone is donated by pollen of Chenopodium oahuense, Acacia koa, and Dodonaea viscosa; post-glacial pollen assemblages feature high percentages of Myrsine and Coprosma, followed by increases in Lycopodium cernuum Ilex anomala. Freycinetia arborea and Pritchardia. After about 8000 years ago,more » Chenopodium, Acacia, and Dodonaea increase, suggesting a return to drier conditions. Abundant pollen of Chenopodium oahuense, a plant of dry regions, during the last glacial maximum implies that neither the trade winds nor cyclonic storms were delivering as much moisture to the regional vegetation as they presently do. This suggests that the ocean surface temperature during the last glacial maximum may have been cooler than present, a finding contradictory to the reconstructions of the CLIMAP (1981) group, which show temperatures near Hawaii equal to or even warmer than present.« less

  9. Millennial-scale variations in western Sierra Nevada precipitation during the last glacial cycle MIS 4/3 transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oster, Jessica L.; Montañez, Isabel P.; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Sharp, Warren D.; Stock, Greg M.; Spero, Howard J.; Tinsley, John; Zachos, James C.

    2014-07-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles had far-reaching effects on Northern Hemisphere and tropical climate systems during the last glacial period, yet the climatic response to D-O cycles in western North America is controversial, especially prior to 55 ka. We document changes in precipitation along the western slope of the central Sierra Nevada during early Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 4 (55-67 ka) from a U-series dated speleothem record from McLean's Cave. The timing of our multi-proxy geochemical dataset is coeval with D-O interstadials (15-18) and stadials, including Heinrich Event 6. The McLean's Cave stalagmite indicates warmer and drier conditions during Greenland interstadials (GISs 15-18), signified by elevated δ18O, δ13C, reflectance, and trace element concentrations, and less radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr. Our record extends evidence of a strong linkage between high-latitude warming and reduced precipitation in western North America to early MIS 3 and MIS 4. This record shows that the linkage persists in diverse global climate states, and documents the nature of the climatic response in central California to Heinrich Event 6.

  10. Deforestation changes land-atmosphere interactions across South American biomes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, Alvaro; Katzfey, Jack; Thatcher, Marcus; Syktus, Jozef; Wong, Kenneth; McAlpine, Clive

    2016-04-01

    South American biomes are increasingly affected by land use/land cover change. However, the climatic impacts of this phenomenon are still not well understood. In this paper, we model vegetation-climate interactions with a focus on four main biomes distributed in four key regions: The Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado, the Dry Chaco, and the Chilean Matorral ecosystems. We applied a three member ensemble climate model simulation for the period 1981-2010 (30 years) at 25 km resolution over the focus regions to quantify the changes in the regional climate resulting from historical deforestation. The results of computed modelling experiments show significant changes in surface fluxes, temperature and moisture in all regions. For instance, simulated temperature changes were stronger in the Cerrado and the Chilean Matorral with an increase of between 0.7 and 1.4 °C. Changes in the hydrological cycle revealed high regional variability. The results showed consistent significant decreases in relative humidity and soil moisture, and increases in potential evapotranspiration across biomes, yet without conclusive changes in precipitation. These impacts were more significant during the dry season, which resulted to be drier and warmer after deforestation.

  11. Climate during the Roman and early-medieval periods in North-western Europe: a review of climate reconstructions from terrestrial archives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichelmann, Dana F. C.; Gouw-Bouman, Marjolein T. I. J.; Hoek, Wim Z.; van Lanen, Rowin J.; Stouthamer, Esther; Jansma, Esther

    2016-04-01

    High-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions are essential to identify possible influences of climate variability on landscape evolution and landscape-related cultural changes (e.g., shifting settlement patterns and long-distance trade relations). North-western Europe is an ideal research area for comparison between climate variability and cultural transitions given its geomorphological diversity and the significant cultural changes that took place in this region during the last two millennia (e.g., the decline of the Roman Empire and the transition to medieval kingdoms). Compared to more global climate records, such as ice cores and marine sediments, terrestrial climate proxies have the advantage of representing a relatively short response time to regional climatic change. Furthermore for this region large quantity of climate reconstructions is available covering the last millennium, whereas for the first millennium AD only few high resolution climate reconstructions are available. We compiled climate reconstructions for sites in North-western Europe from the literature and its underlying data. All these reconstructions cover the time period of AD 1 to 1000. We only selected data with an annual to decadal resolution and a minimum resolution of 50 years. This resulted in 18 climate reconstructions from different archives such as chironomids (1), pollen (4), Sphagnum cellulose (1), stalagmites (6), testate amoebae (4), and tree-rings (2). The compilation of the different temperature reconstructions shows similar trends in most of the records. Colder conditions since AD 300 for a period of approximately 400 years and warmer conditions after AD 700 become apparent. A contradicting signal is found before AD 300 with warmer conditions indicated by most of the records but not all. This is likely the result of the use of different proxies, reflecting temperatures linked to different seasons. The compilation of the different precipitation reconstructions also show similar

  12. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  13. Interactive biotic and abiotic regulators of soil carbon cycling: evidence from controlled climate experiments on peatland and boreal soils.

    PubMed

    Briones, María Jesús I; McNamara, Niall P; Poskitt, Jan; Crow, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J

    2014-09-01

    Partially decomposed plant and animal remains have been accumulating in organic soils (i.e. >40% C content) for millennia, making them the largest terrestrial carbon store. There is growing concern that, in a warming world, soil biotic processing will accelerate and release greenhouse gases that further exacerbate climate change. However, the magnitude of this response remains uncertain as the constraints are abiotic, biotic and interactive. Here, we examined the influence of resource quality and biological activity on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration under different soil moisture regimes. Organic soils were sampled from 13 boreal and peatland ecosystems located in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Finland and Sweden, representing a natural resource quality range of C, N and P. They were incubated at four temperatures (4, 10, 15 and 20 °C) at either 60% or 100% water holding capacity (WHC). Our results showed that chemical and biological properties play an important role in determining soil respiration responses to temperature and moisture changes. High soil C : P and C : N ratios were symptomatic of slow C turnover and long-term C accumulation. In boreal soils, low bacterial to fungal ratios were related to greater temperature sensitivity of respiration, which was amplified in drier conditions. This contrasted with peatland soils which were dominated by bacterial communities and enchytraeid grazing, resulting in a more rapid C turnover under warmer and wetter conditions. The unexpected acceleration of C mineralization under high moisture contents was possibly linked to the primarily role of fermented organic matter, instead of oxygen, in mediating microbial decomposition. We conclude that to improve C model simulations of soil respiration, a better resolution of the interactions occurring between climate, resource quality and the decomposer community will be required. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Impact of climate warming-induced increase in drought stress on successional dynamic of a coniferous forest within a dry inner Alpine environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, R.; Zeisler, B.; Oberhuber, W.

    2012-04-01

    Climate sensitivity of tree growth will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. We applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine impact of climate warming on radial stem growth of three native and widespread coniferous tree species of the central Austrian Alps (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within a dry inner Alpine environment (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Time series of annual increments were developed from > 250 saplings and mature trees. Radial growth response to recent climate warming was explored by means of moving response functions (MRF) and evaluation of trends in basal area increment (BAI) for the period 1911 - 2009. Climate-growth relationships revealed significant differences among species in response to water availability. While precipitation in May - June favoured radial growth of spruce and larch, Scots pine growth mainly depended on April - May precipitation. Spruce growth was most sensitive to May - June temperature (inverse relationship). Although MRF coefficients indicated increasing drought sensitivity of all species, which is most likely related to intensified belowground competition for scarce water with increasing stand density and higher evapotranspiration rates due to climate warming, recent BAI trends strikingly differed among species. While BAI of larch was distinctly declining, spruce showed steadily increasing BAI and quite constant BAI was maintained in drought adapted Scots pine, although at lowest level of all species. Furthermore, more favourable growing conditions of spruce in recent decades are indicated by scattered natural regeneration and higher growth rates of younger trees during first decades of their lifespan. Because human interference and wildlife stock is negligible within the study area, results

  15. Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts.

    PubMed

    Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

    2010-10-21

    To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.

  16. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  17. Response of the everglades ridge and slough landscape to climate variability and 20th-century water management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bernhardt, C.E.; Willard, D.A.

    2009-01-01

    The ridge and slough landscape of the Florida Everglades consists of a mosaic of linear sawgrass ridges separated by deeper-water sloughs with tree islands interspersed throughout the landscape. We used pollen assemblages from transects of sediment cores spanning sawgrass ridges, sloughs, and ridge-slough transition zones to determine the timing of ridge and slough formation and to evaluate the response of components of the ridge and slough landscape to climate variability and 20th-century water management. These pollen data indicate that sawgrass ridges and sloughs have been vegetationally distinct from one another since initiation of the Everglades wetland in mid-Holocene time. Although the position and community composition of sloughs have remained relatively stable throughout their history, modern sawgrass ridges formed on sites that originally were occupied by marshes. Ridge formation and maturation were initiated during intervals of drier climate (the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age) when the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifted southward. During these drier intervals, marsh taxa were more common in sloughs, but they quickly receded when precipitation increased. Comparison with regional climate records suggests that slough vegetation is strongly influenced by North Atlantic Oscillation variability, even under 20th-century water management practices. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. Late Holocene climate dynamics: A high-resolution sediment core from Maxwell Bay, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hass, H. C.; Kuhn, G.; Monien, P.; Brumsack, H.

    2009-12-01

    Presently, the Antarctic Peninsula belongs to the fastest warming regions on Earth. Meltwater discharge increases, glaciers retreat and as a consequence the coastal ecosystems change at an ever-increasing pace. The goal of our study is to reconstruct the timing and impact of historical climate phases such as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) as analogs for the recent climate development, and to identify the marine sedimentary processes affected by the changing climate. We present results from a 928 cm long gravity core from Maxwell Bay, King George Island, Antarctica. The core spans the past c. 1700 years. Sedimentation at the core site is governed by sediments from the tributary fjords entering Maxwell Bay, namely Potter and Marian coves and Collins Harbor. There are two sediment classes: Class 1 is characterized by two grain-size subpopulations. The coarser one represents the bedload fraction, whereas the finer one is interpreted to represent meltwater-induced suspension load. Since meltwater is restricted to the summer season, it is suggested that Class 1 sediments characterize periods of intense summer-meltwater production and thus, warmer climate phases. Class 2 samples show the same coarse grain-size mode but they lack the fine subpopulation. We suggest that these sediments indicate less intense summer-meltwater production and thus colder climatic conditions. The mean grain size suggests that average bottom current speeds were slightly higher during colder climate phases than during the warmer phases. Bioproduction at the core location and in the sediment source areas as reflected by bio-productivity proxies (TOC, bio-opal) is not always positively related to climate since warm-phase meltwater discharge adversely affects bioproduction through light attenuation by turbid waters. Furthermore, during warmer phases the TOC signal becomes diluted due to increased deposition of terrigenous fine sediment. Comparison with Antarctic

  19. Food Crops Response to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

    2009-12-01

    Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

  20. Marine Climate Archives across the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age Transition from Viking and Medieval Age Shells, Orkney, Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surge, D. M.; Barrett, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    Proxy records reconstructing marine climatic conditions across the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900-1350 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1350-1850) are strongly biased towards decadal to annual resolution and summer/growing seasons. Here we present new archives of seasonal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, which accumulated in Viking and medieval shell and fish middens at Quoygrew on Westray, Orkney. SST was reconstructed at submonthly resolution using oxygen isotope ratios preserved in shells from the 12th and mid 15th centuries (MCA and LIA, respectively). MCA shells recorded warmer summers and colder winters by ~2 degrees C relative to the late 20th Century (1961-1990). Therefore, seasonality was higher during the MCA relative to the late 20th century. Without the benefit of seasonal resolution, SST averaged from shell time series would be weighted toward the fast-growing summer season, resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~1°C. This conclusion is broadly true for the summer season, but not true for the winter season. Higher seasonality and cooler winters during early medieval times may result from a weakened North Atlantic Oscillation index. In contrast, the LIA shells have a more a variable inter-annual pattern. Some years record cooler summers and winters relative to the MCA shells and late 20th century, whereas other years record warmer summers and cooler winters similar to the MCA shells. Our findings provide a new test for the accuracy of seasonal amplitudes resulting from paleoclimate model experiments.

  1. Air quality and climate--synergies and trade-offs.

    PubMed

    von Schneidemesser, Erika; Monks, Paul S

    2013-07-01

    Air quality and climate are often treated as separate science and policy areas. Air quality encompasses the here-and-now of pollutant emissions, atmospheric transformations and their direct effect on human and ecosystem health. Climate change deals with the drivers leading to a warmer world and the consequences of that. These two science and policy issues are inexorably linked via common pollutants, such as ozone (methane) and black carbon. This short review looks at the new scientific evidence around so-called "short-lived climate forcers" and the growing realisation that a way to meet short-term climate change targets may be through the control of "air quality" pollutants. None of the options discussed here can replace reduction of long-lived greenhouse gases, such as CO2, which is required for any long-term climate change mitigation strategy. An overview is given of the underlying science, remaining uncertainties, and some of the synergies and trade-offs for addressing air quality and climate in the science and policy context.

  2. The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2009-01-01

    The projected global increase in the distribution and prevalence of infectious diseases with climate change suggests a pending societal crisis. The subject is increasingly attracting the attention of health professionals and climate-change scientists, particularly with respect to malaria and other vector-transmitted human diseases. The result has been the emergence of a crisis discipline, reminiscent of the early phases of conservation biology. Latitudinal, altitudinal, seasonal, and interannual associations between climate and disease along with historical and experimental evidence suggest that climate, along with many other factors, can affect infectious diseases in a nonlinear fashion. However, although the globe is significantly warmer than it was a century ago, there is little evidence that climate change has already favored infectious diseases. While initial projections suggested dramatic future increases in the geographic range of infectious diseases, recent models predict range shifts in disease distributions, with little net increase in area. Many factors can affect infectious disease, and some may overshadow the effects of climate.

  3. Getting into hot water: sick guppies frequent warmer thermal conditions.

    PubMed

    Mohammed, Ryan S; Reynolds, Michael; James, Joanna; Williams, Chris; Mohammed, Azad; Ramsubhag, Adesh; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Jo

    2016-07-01

    Ectotherms depend on the environmental temperature for thermoregulation and exploit thermal regimes that optimise physiological functioning. They may also frequent warmer conditions to up-regulate their immune response against parasite infection and/or impede parasite development. This adaptive response, known as 'behavioural fever', has been documented in various taxa including insects, reptiles and fish, but only in response to endoparasite infections. Here, a choice chamber experiment was used to investigate the thermal preferences of a tropical freshwater fish, the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), when infected with a common helminth ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli, in female-only and mixed-sex shoals. The temperature tolerance of G. turnbulli was also investigated by monitoring parasite population trajectories on guppies maintained at a continuous 18, 24 or 32 °C. Regardless of shoal composition, infected fish frequented the 32 °C choice chamber more often than when uninfected, significantly increasing their mean temperature preference. Parasites maintained continuously at 32 °C decreased to extinction within 3 days, whereas mean parasite abundance increased on hosts incubated at 18 and 24 °C. We show for the first time that gyrodactylid-infected fish have a preference for warmer waters and speculate that sick fish exploit the upper thermal tolerances of their parasites to self medicate.

  4. Northern Mediterranean climate since the Middle Pleistocene: a 637 ka stable isotope record from Lake Ohrid (Albania/Macedonia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacey, Jack H.; Leng, Melanie J.; Francke, Alexander; Sloane, Hilary J.; Milodowski, Antoni; Vogel, Hendrik; Baumgarten, Henrike; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Wagner, Bernd

    2016-03-01

    Lake Ohrid (Macedonia/Albania) is an ancient lake with unique biodiversity and a site of global significance for investigating the influence of climate, geological, and tectonic events on the generation of endemic populations. Here, we present oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope data from carbonate over the upper 243 m of a composite core profile recovered as part of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project. The investigated sediment succession covers the past ca. 637 ka. Previous studies on short cores from the lake (up to 15 m, < 140 ka) have indicated the total inorganic carbon (TIC) content of sediments to be highly sensitive to climate change over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Sediments corresponding to warmer periods contain abundant endogenic calcite; however, an overall low TIC content in glacial sediments is punctuated by discrete bands of early diagenetic authigenic siderite. Isotope measurements on endogenic calcite (δ18Oc and δ13Cc) reveal variations both between and within interglacials that suggest the lake has been subject to palaeoenvironmental change on orbital and millennial timescales. We also measured isotope ratios from authigenic siderite (δ18Os and δ13Cs) and, with the oxygen isotope composition of calcite and siderite, reconstruct δ18O of lake water (δ18Olw) over the last 637 ka. Interglacials have higher δ18Olw values when compared to glacial periods most likely due to changes in evaporation, summer temperature, the proportion of winter precipitation (snowfall), and inflow from adjacent Lake Prespa. The isotope stratigraphy suggests Lake Ohrid experienced a period of general stability from marine isotope stage (MIS) 15 to MIS 13, highlighting MIS 14 as a particularly warm glacial. Climate conditions became progressively wetter during MIS 11 and MIS 9. Interglacial periods after MIS 9 are characterised by increasingly evaporated and drier conditions through MIS 7, MIS 5

  5. Organismal responses to habitat change: herbivore performance, climate and leaf traits in regenerating tropical dry forests.

    PubMed

    Agosta, Salvatore J; Hulshof, Catherine M; Staats, Ethan G

    2017-05-01

    The ecological effects of large-scale climate change have received much attention, but the effects of the more acute form of climate change that results from local habitat alteration have been less explored. When forest is fragmented, cut, thinned, cleared or otherwise altered in structure, local climates and microclimates change. Such changes can affect herbivores both directly (e.g. through changes in body temperature) and indirectly (e.g. through changes in host plant traits). We advance an eco-physiological framework to understand the effects of changing forests on herbivorous insects. We hypothesize that if tropical forest caterpillars are climate and resource specialists, then they should have reduced performance outside of mature forest conditions. We tested this hypothesis with a field experiment contrasting the performance of Rothschildia lebeau (Saturniidae) caterpillars feeding on the host plant Casearia nitida (Salicaceae) in two different aged and structured tropical dry forests in Area de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Compared to more mature closed-canopy forest, in younger secondary forest we found that: (1) ambient conditions were hotter, drier and more variable; (2) caterpillar growth and development were reduced; and (3) leaves were tougher, thicker and drier. Furthermore, caterpillar growth and survival were negatively correlated with these leaf traits, suggesting indirect host-mediated effects of climate on herbivores. Based on the available evidence, and relative to mature forest, we conclude that reduced herbivore performance in young secondary forest could have been driven by changes in climate, leaf traits (which were likely climate induced) or both. However, additional studies will be needed to provide more direct evidence of cause-and-effect and to disentangle the relative influence of these factors on herbivore performance in this system. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  6. Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Miguel, E.

    2014-12-01

    A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1sd) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2sd to 4sd by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

  7. Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

    2013-01-01

    Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

  8. Are signals of westerly wind strength and hydroclimate change during the late Holocene preserved in Antarctic peatbanks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stelling, J.; Yu, Z.; Beilman, D. W.; Loisel, J.

    2017-12-01

    Over the second half of the 20th century the western Antarctic Peninsula experienced a warmer and moister climate, possibly brought by the poleward expansion of the southern westerly wind belt. However, it is not well-known how terrestrial ecosystems on the peninsula have responded to circulation change over the last two millennia. Here we present a paleoecological and geochemical record derived from peatbank deposits on contrasting slopes on Litchfield Island (64°46'S; 64°06'W) to better understand ecosystem response over the late Holocene. Chronology of our three peat cores is constrained by 18 radiocarbon dates. The north-facing peatbank initiated 2700 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP) had a time-weighted accumulation rate of 0.3 mm yr-1 with the interval of lowest growth (<0.03 mm yr-1) from 1300 to 500 cal yr BP. However, the last 500 cal yr BP show increased accumulation rate (>0.6 mm yr-1). The other two peatbanks (southwest and west-facing) initiated after 500 cal yr BP with 1.5 mm yr-1 vertical accumulation rate. We suspect the delayed initiation in southwest or west-facing slopes was caused by cold/cool summer and likely persistent snow cover before 500 cal yr BP. Under the same regional climate, the cool summer, and perhaps more snow, on the north-facing slope causes the slow accumulation rate there at 1300-500 cal yr BP. Furthermore, the results show that carbon accumulation follows a similar pattern with an increased rate (greater than the time-weighted mean 20 g C m-2 yr-1), of up to 110 g C m-2 yr-1 at 1300 cal yr BP, and then decreased accumulation thereafter until 500 cal yr BP. Surprisingly, on peatbanks with different microclimates, there is a common pattern of large-scale species dominance shifts —from less than 10% to greater than >80%—between drier Polytrichum and wetter Chorisodontium. These dominance shifts indicate that despite differing accumulation histories, patterns of external influence can be detected. Warmer and

  9. Unraveling past impacts of climate change and land management on historic peatland development using proxy-based reconstruction, monitoring data and process modeling.

    PubMed

    Heinemeyer, Andreas; Swindles, Graeme T

    2018-05-08

    Peatlands represent globally significant soil carbon stores that have been accumulating for millennia under water-logged conditions. However, deepening water-table depths (WTD) from climate change or human-induced drainage could stimulate decomposition resulting in peatlands turning from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Contemporary WTD ranges of testate amoebae (TA) are commonly used to predict past WTD in peatlands using quantitative transfer function models. Here we present, for the first time, a study comparing TA-based WTD reconstructions to instrumentally monitored WTD and hydrological model predictions using the MILLENNIA peatland model to examine past peatland responses to climate change and land management. Although there was very good agreement between monitored and modeled WTD, TA-reconstructed water table was consistently deeper. Predictions from a larger European TA transfer function data set were wetter, but the overall directional fit to observed WTD was better for a TA transfer function based on data from northern England. We applied a regression-based offset correction to the reconstructed WTD for the validation period (1931-2010). We then predicted WTD using available climate records as MILLENNIA model input and compared the offset-corrected TA reconstruction to MILLENNIA WTD predictions over an extended period (1750-1931) with available climate reconstructions. Although the comparison revealed striking similarities in predicted overall WTD patterns, particularly for a recent drier period (1965-1995), there were clear periods when TA-based WTD predictions underestimated (i.e. drier during 1830-1930) and overestimated (i.e. wetter during 1760-1830) past WTD compared to MILLENNIA model predictions. Importantly, simulated grouse moor management scenarios may explain the drier TA WTD predictions, resulting in considerable model predicted carbon losses and reduced methane emissions, mainly due to drainage. This study demonstrates the value of a site

  10. Changing patterns of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation and implications of climatic control on coal occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, T.L.; Peppers, R.A.

    1984-01-01

    Improved regional and interregional stratigraphic correlations of Pennsylvanian strata permit comparisons of vegetational changes in Euramerican coal swamps. The coal-swamp vegetation is known directly from in situ coal-ball peat deposits from more than 65 coals in the United States and Europe. Interpretations of coal-swamp floras on the basis of coal-ball peat studies are extended to broader regional and stratigraphic patterns by use of coal palynology. Objectives of the quantitative analyses of the vegetation in relation to coal are to determine the botanical constituents at the peat stage and their environmental implications for plant growth and peat accumulation. Morphological and paleoecological analyses provide a basis for deducing freshwater regimes of coal swamps. Changes in composition of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation are quire similar from one paralic coal region to another and show synchrony that is attributable to climate. Paleobotany and paleogeography of the Euramerican province indicate a moist tropical paleoclimate. Rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration were the variable climatic controls in the distribution of coal-swamp vegetation, peat accumulation and coal resources. In relative terms of climatic wetness the Pennsylvanian Period is divisible into five intervals, which include two relatively drier intervals that developed during the Lower-Middle and Middle-Upper Pennsylvanian transitions. The climate during Early Pennsylvanian time was moderately wet and the median in moisture availability. Early Middle Pennsylvanian was drier, probably seasonally dry-wet; late Middle Pennsylvanian was the wettest in the Midcontinent; early Late Pennsylvanian was the driest; and late Late Pennsylvanian was probably the wettest in the Dunkard Basin. The five climatic intervals represent a general means of dividing coal resources within each region into groups with similar botanical constituents and environments of peat accumulation. Regional differences in

  11. Climatic and Societal Causes for Abrupt Environmental Change in the Mediterranean During the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Sagnotti, L.; Florindo, F.; Noble, P. J.; Archer, C.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Pavón-Carrasco, F. J.; Cifnani, G.; Passigli, S.; Piovesan, G.

    2015-12-01

    We compare climatic and societal causes for abrupt environmental change for the last 2000 years in the Rieti Basin, central Italy using high-resolution sedimentary paleoenvironmental proxies, historical documents, and annually resolved independent climate reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. Pollen zones, identified from temporally constrained cluster analysis, coincide with historic periods developed from well-established ceramic sequences corresponding to the Roman Imperial through Late Antique (1 to 600 CE) Early Medieval (600 to 875 CE), Medieval through Late Medieval (875 to 1400 CE), Renaissance and Modern (1400 to 1725 CE), and Contemporary periods (1725 CE to present). Non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination showed that each temporal period occupied a unique ecologic space suggesting that a new landscape was created during each successive historic period. During Roman time, between 1 and 500 CE, a modest decline in forest coincides with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and drier climate; however mesophyllous forest is preserved. Steep decline in forest cover between 850 and 950 CE coincides with positive temperature anomalies in Europe and a positive NAO. Although this would seem to suggest climate as a cause, temperature and precipitation changes are modest and the magnitude and rapidity of the vegetation change suggests climate played a small role. Archaeological evidence from across Europe identifies socioeconomic factors that produced forest clearing. In contrast, cooler temperatures and a negative NAO (increased ppt) appears to have been a catalyst for land abandonment and forest recovery in the 13th to 14th centuries. The NAO produces opposite effects on societies in the eastern and western Mediterranean with the negative phase in 1400 CE leading to cool wet climate and land abandonment in central Italy but an abrupt shift to drier conditions and change from sedentary village life to nomadism in Syria.

  12. Differential sensitivity to climate change of C and N cycling processes across soil horizons in a northern hardwood forest

    Treesearch

    Jorge Durán; Jennifer L. Morse; Alexandra Rodríguez; John L. Campbell; Lynn M. Christenson; Charles T. Driscoll; Timothy J. Fahey; Melany C. Fisk; Myron J. Mitchell; Pamela H. Templer; Peter M. Groffman

    2017-01-01

    Climate of the northern hardwood forests of North America will become significantly warmer in the coming decades. Associated increases in soil temperature, decreases in water availability and changes in winter snow pack and soil frost are likely to affect soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. Most studies of the effects of climate change on soil function have...

  13. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

    2010-05-01

    applied not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more extreme rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. (2) The novel approach used in this study can simulate transient climate change from 2010 to 2085, rather than time series representative of a stationary climate for the period 2071-2100. (3) The weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios for each RCM, representative of the natural variability of the weather. All of these scenarios are applied as input to the Geer basin model to assess the projected impact of climate change on groundwater levels, the uncertainty arising for different RCM projections and the uncertainty linked to natural climatic variability. Using the output results from all scenarios, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for each year and month between 2010 and 2085. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease by the end of the century. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty of these projections is relatively large compared to the projected changes so that it remains difficult to confidently determine the magnitude of the decrease. The use and combination of an integrated surface - subsurface model and stochastic climate change scenarios has never been used in previous climate change impact studies on groundwater resources. It constitutes an innovation and is an important tool for helping water managers to take decisions.

  14. Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

    PubMed

    Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I

    2016-06-21

    Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

  15. Stand Competition Determines How Different Tree Species Will Cope with a Warming Climate

    PubMed Central

    Fernández-de-Uña, Laura; Cañellas, Isabel; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

    2015-01-01

    Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in a variable manner

  16. Seasonally varying footprint of climate change on precipitation in the Middle East.

    PubMed

    Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

    2018-03-13

    Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns; however, the amplitude of the change may broadly differ across seasons. Combining different seasons may mask contrasting climate change signals in individual seasons, leading to weakened signals and misleading impact results. A realistic assessment of future climate change is of great importance for arid regions, which are more vulnerable to any change in extreme events as their infrastructure is less experienced or not well adapted for extreme conditions. Our results show that climate change signals and associated uncertainties over the Middle East region remarkably vary with seasons. The region is identified as a climate change hotspot where rare extreme precipitation events are expected to intensify for all seasons, with a "highest increase in autumn, lowest increase in spring" pattern which switches to the "increase in autumn, decrease in spring" pattern for less extreme precipitation. This pattern is also held for mean precipitation, violating the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier" paradigm.

  17. Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

    2015-11-01

    Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades, and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.67-0.88, P < 0.05), approximately 50-, 30-, and 10-fold along this drier to wetter gradient. Interannual fluctuations in CMI affected the annual radial growth of 91 % of juniper, 51 % of pine, and 12 % of fir individuals from 1964 to 2013. The magnitude of the site-average growth-CMI correlations decreased with increased CMIgy (r2 = 0.53, P < 0.05). All three species, particularly fir, experienced pronounced declines in radial growth from c. 1985 to 1994, coinciding with a period of sustained below-average CMIgy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Consequently, maximum tree height, leaf area : sapwood area

  18. Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

    2015-09-01

    Severe droughts occurred in the western United States during recent decades and continued human greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exacerbate warming and drying in this region. We investigated the role of water availability in shaping forest carbon cycling and morphological traits in the eastern Cascade Mountains, Oregon, focusing on the transition from low-elevation, dry western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) woodlands to higher-elevation, wetter ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and grand fir (Abies grandis) forests. We examined 12 sites in mature forests that spanned a 1300 mm yr-1 gradient in mean growing-year climate moisture index (CMIgy ), computed annually (1964 to 2013) as monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration and summed October to September. Maximum leaf area, annual aboveground productivity, and aboveground live tree biomass increased with CMIgy (r2 = 0.58-0.85, P < 0.05), approximately 50-, 30-, and 10-fold along this drier to wetter gradient. Interannual fluctuations in CMI affected the annual radial growth of 91 % of juniper, 51 % of pine, and 12 % of fir from 1964 to 2013. The magnitude of the site-average growth-CMI correlations decreased with increased CMIgy (r2 = 0.65, P < 0.05). All three species, particularly fir, experienced pronounced declines in radial growth from ca. 1985 to 1994, coinciding with a period of sustained below-average CMIgy and extensive insect outbreak. Traits of stress-tolerant juniper included short stature, high wood density for cavitation resistance, and high investment in water transport relative to leaf area. Species occupying wetter areas invested more resources in height growth in response to competition for light relative to investment in hydraulic architecture. Correspondingly, maximum tree height, leaf area:sapwood area ratio, and

  19. Climate induces seasonality in pneumococcal transmission

    PubMed Central

    Numminen, Elina; Chewapreecha, Claire; Turner, Claudia; Goldblatt, David; Nosten, Francois; Bentley, Stephen D.; Turner, Paul; Corander, Jukka

    2015-01-01

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is a significant human pathogen and a leading cause of infant mortality in developing countries. Considerable global variation in the pneumococcal carriage prevalence has been observed and the ecological factors contributing to it are not yet fully understood. We use data from a cohort of infants in Asia to study the effects of climatic conditions on both acquisition and clearance rates of the bacterium, finding significantly higher transmissibility during the cooler and drier months. Conversely, the length of a colonization period is unaffected by the season. Independent carriage data from studies conducted on the African and North American continents suggest similar effects of the climate on the prevalence of this bacterium, which further validates the obtained results. Further studies could be important to replicate the findings and explain the mechanistic role of cooler and dry air in the physiological response to nasopharyngeal acquisition of the pneumococcus. PMID:26067932

  20. Climate induces seasonality in pneumococcal transmission.

    PubMed

    Numminen, Elina; Chewapreecha, Claire; Turner, Claudia; Goldblatt, David; Nosten, Francois; Bentley, Stephen D; Turner, Paul; Corander, Jukka

    2015-06-12

    Streptococcus pneumoniae is a significant human pathogen and a leading cause of infant mortality in developing countries. Considerable global variation in the pneumococcal carriage prevalence has been observed and the ecological factors contributing to it are not yet fully understood. We use data from a cohort of infants in Asia to study the effects of climatic conditions on both acquisition and clearance rates of the bacterium, finding significantly higher transmissibility during the cooler and drier months. Conversely, the length of a colonization period is unaffected by the season. Independent carriage data from studies conducted on the African and North American continents suggest similar effects of the climate on the prevalence of this bacterium, which further validates the obtained results. Further studies could be important to replicate the findings and explain the mechanistic role of cooler and dry air in the physiological response to nasopharyngeal acquisition of the pneumococcus.

  1. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-12-01

    balance of 0.34 m w.e. We modelled the mass balance for 1999 and 2000 and analysed the spatial distribution. We then ran the model for a period of 23 years and calculated the mass balance sensitivity to climate change by perturbing air temperature and precipitation. The mass balance sensitivity to temperature and precipitation are ˜0.59 m w.e. a-1 K-1 and 0.17 m w.e. a-1 per 10 percent respectively. We also used three other albedo parameterisations to calculate the mass balance sensitivity since albedo parameterisations are often regarded as a main source of error in mass balance models. We concluded that an accurate estimate of the mass balance sensitivity requires a parameterisation that captures the process of a decreasing snow albedo when a snow pack gets older or thinner. To extract a climate signal from worldwide glacier length fluctuations, we developed a simple model. The climate signal is represented as a reconstruction of the mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The model was tested on seventeen European glacier length records and then applied to nineteen glacier length records from different parts of the world. Between 1910 and 1959, the average increase in the reconstructed ELAs is 33 m. This implies that during the first half of the twentieth century, the climate was warmer or drier than before. The reconstructed ELAs decrease to lower elevations after 1960 and up till 1980, when most of the reconstructions end. The results can be translated into a global temperature increase of about 0.8 K for the period 1910-1959

  2. Using Nitrogen Stable Isotope Tracers to Track Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Salt Marshes

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change impacts on coastal salt marshes are predicted to be complex and multi-faceted. In addition to rising sea level and warmer water temperatures, regional precipitation patterns are also expected to change. At least in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S., more severe s...

  3. Unique challenges and opportunities for Northeastern U.S. crop production in a changing climate

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for farming in the Northeastern United States. Among the opportunities are double-cropping and new crop options that may come with warmer temperatures and a longer frost-free period. However, prolonged periods of sp...

  4. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    PubMed

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  5. Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

    2014-12-01

    The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

  6. Impact of longer-term modest climate shifts on architecture of high-frequency sequences (Cyclothems), Pennsylvanian of midcontinent U.S.A

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Feldman, H.R.; Franseen, E.K.; Joeckel, R.M.; Heckel, P.H.

    2005-01-01

    Pennsylvanian glacioeustatic cyclothems exposed in Kansas and adjacent areas provide a unique opportunity to test models of the impact of relative sea level and climate on stratal architecture. A succession of eight of these high-frequency sequences, traced along dip for 500 km, reveal that modest climate shifts from relatively dry-seasonal to relatively wet-seasonal with a duration of several sequences (???600,000 to 1 million years) had a dominant impact on facies, sediment dispersal patterns, and sequence architecture. The climate shifts documented herein are intermediate, both in magnitude and duration, between previously documented longer-term climate shifts throughout much of the Pennsylvanian and shorter-term shifts described within individual sequences. Climate indicators are best preserved at sequence boundaries and in incised-valley fills of the lowstand systems tracts (LST). Relatively drier climate indicators include high-chroma paleosols, typically with pedogenic carbonates, and plant assemblages that are dominated by gymnosperms, mostly xerophytic walchian conifers. The associated valleys are small (4 km wide and >20 m deep), and dominated by quartz sandstones derived from distant source areas, reflecting large drainage networks. Transgressive systems tracts (TST) in all eight sequences gen erally are characterized by thin, extensive limestones and thin marine shales, suggesting that the dominant control on TST facies distribution was the sequestration of siliciclastic sediment in updip positions. Highstand systems tracts (HST) were significantly impacted by the intermediate-scale climate cycle in that HSTs from relatively drier climates consist of thin marine shales overlain by extensive, thick regressive limestones, whereas HSTs from relatively wetter climates are dominated by thick marine shales. Previously documented relative sea-level changes do not track the climate cycles, indicating that climate played a role distinct from that of relative sea

  7. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  8. Climate Assessment for 2000.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrimore, Jay H.; Halpert, Michael S.; Bell, Gerald D.; Menne, Matthew J.; Lyon, Bradfield; Schnell, Russell C.; Gleason, Karin L.; Easterling, David R.; Thiaw, Wasila; Wright, William J.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Robinson, David A.; Alexander, Lisa

    2001-06-01

    The global climate in 2000 was again influenced by the long-running Pacific cold episode (La Niña) that began in mid-1998. Consistent with past cold episodes, enhanced convection occurred across the climatologically convective regions of Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific, while convection was suppressed in the central Pacific. The La Niña was also associated with a well-defined African easterly jet located north of its climatological mean position and low vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, both of which contributed to an active North Atlantic hurricane season. Precipitation patterns influenced by typical La Niña conditions included 1) above-average rainfall in southeastern Africa, 2) unusually heavy rainfall in northern and central regions of Australia, 3) enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, 4) little rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, 5) below-normal precipitation over equatorial east Africa, and 6) drier-than-normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the United States.Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2000, another active North Atlantic hurricane season featured 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, with 3 growing to major hurricane strength. All of the named storms over the North Atlantic formed during the August-October period with the first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alberto, notable as the third-longest-lived tropical system since reliable records began in 1945. The primary human loss during the 2000 season occurred in Central America, where Hurricane Gordon killed 19 in Guatemala, and Hurricane Keith killed 19 in Belize and caused $200 million dollars of damage.Other regional events included 1) record warm January-October temperatures followed by record cold November-December temperatures in the United States, 2) extreme drought and widespread wildfires in the southern and western Unites States, 3) continued long

  9. Climate perceptions of local communities validated through scientific signals in Sikkim Himalaya, India.

    PubMed

    Sharma, R K; Shrestha, D G

    2016-10-01

    Sikkim, a tiny Himalayan state situated in the north-eastern region of India, records limited research on the climate change. Understanding the changes in climate based on the perceptions of local communities can provide important insights for the preparedness against the unprecedented consequences of climate change. A total of 228 households in 12 different villages of Sikkim, India, were interviewed using eight climate change indicators. The results from the public opinions showed a significant increase in temperature compared to a decade earlier, winters are getting warmer, water springs are drying up, change in concept of spring-water recharge (locally known as Mul Phutnu), changes in spring season, low crop yields, incidences of mosquitoes during winter, and decrease in rainfall in last 10 years. In addition, study also showed significant positive correlations of increase in temperature with other climate change indicators viz. spring-water recharge concept (R (2) = 0.893), warmer winter (R (2) = 0.839), drying up of water springs (R (2) = 0.76), changes in spring season (R (2) = 0.68), low crop yields (R (2) = 0.68), decrease in rainfall (R (2) = 0.63), and incidences of mosquitoes in winter (R (2) = 0.50). The air temperature for two meteorological stations of Sikkim indicated statistically significant increasing trend in mean minimum temperature and mean minimum winter temperature (DJF). The observed climate change is consistent with the people perceptions. This information can help in planning specific adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change by framing village-level action plan.

  10. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  11. The impact of future climate on historic interiors.

    PubMed

    Lankester, Paul; Brimblecombe, Peter

    2012-02-15

    The socio-economic significance of climate change is widely recognised. However, its potential to affect our cultural heritage has not been discussed in detail (i.e. not explicit in IPCC 4) even though the cultural impacts of future outdoor climate have been the focus of some European Commission projects (e.g. NOAH'S ARK) and World Heritage Centre reports. Recently there have been a few projects that have examined the changing environmental threats to tangible heritage indoors (e.g. Preparing Historic Collections for Climate Change and Climate for Culture). Here we predict future indoor temperature and humidity, and damage arising from changes to climate in historic rooms in Southern England with little climate control, using simple building simulations coupled with high resolution (~5 km) climate predictions. The calculations suggest an increase in indoor temperature over the next century that is slightly less than that outdoors. Annual relative humidity shows little change, but the seasonal cycles suggest drier summers and slightly damper winters indoors. Damage from mould growth and pests is likely to increase in the future, while humidity driven dimensional change to materials (e.g. wood) should decrease somewhat. The results allow collection managers to prepare for the impact of long-term climate change, putting strategic measures in place to prevent increased damage, and thus preserve our heritage for future generations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

    2017-07-01

    Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

  13. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

    PubMed

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-11-13

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  14. Response of high-elevation limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to multiyear droughts and 20th-century warming, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

    Treesearch

    Constance I. Millar; Robert D. Westfall; Diane L. Delany

    2007-01-01

    Limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) stands along the eastern escarpment of the Sierra Nevada, California, experienced significant mortality from 1985 to 1995 during a period of sustained low precipitation and high temperature. The stands differ from old-growth limber pine forests in being dense, young, more even-aged, and located in warmer, drier...

  15. Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.

    PubMed

    Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M

    2017-01-01

    In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

  16. Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

    PubMed

    Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

    2018-02-01

    The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

  17. In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-02-15

    occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

  18. Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio

    2017-07-01

    This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two

  19. Phenotypic response of plants to simulated climate change in a long-term rain-manipulation experiment: a multi-species study.

    PubMed

    Hänel, Sabine; Tielbörger, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Many species will need to adapt to the observed climate change in order to persist. However, research about adaptation or phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change is rare. In particular, field studies are lacking that impose artificial selection for a sufficiently long time to elicit changes in phenotypic and genotypic structure of populations. Here, we present findings for an 8-year field experiment with 16 annual plant species that tested potentially adaptive phenotypic responses to precipitation change. In both a Mediterranean and a semi-arid site, annual precipitation was manipulated (±30%) and phenotypic response was recorded. We measured flowering time as a key trait related to climatic conditions and biomass and survival as fitness correlates. Differences in traits among treatments were compared to trait shifts between sites, according to space-for-time approaches. In the drier site, phenology was accelerated, but within that site, experimental drought delayed phenology, probably as a plastic response to delayed ontogenetic development. Biomass was smaller in the dry treatments of that site, but it was also reduced in irrigated plots in both sites, indicating more intense competition. The shifts from limitation by drought to limitation by competition corresponded to patterns along the gradient. This also implies a larger negative impact of climate change in the drier site. Our results suggest that experimental selection in the field caused directional responses in most species, but these were not necessarily adaptive. Furthermore, competitive release imposed by climate change may revert direct negative effects of rainfall change in determining plant performance.

  20. Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management

    Treesearch

    Daniel J. Chmura; Paul D. Anderson; Glenn T. Howe; Constance A. Harrington; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; David C. Shaw; Brad J. St Clair

    2011-01-01

    Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([C02]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northwestern U.S., these changes will likely decrease snowpack, cause earlier snowmelt, increase summer evapotranspiration, and increase the...