Rare, Intense, Big fires dominate the global tropics under drier conditions.

PubMed

Hantson, Stijn; Scheffer, Marten; Pueyo, Salvador; Xu, Chi; Lasslop, Gitta; van Nes, Egbert H; Holmgren, Milena; Mendelsohn, John

2017-10-30

Wildfires burn large parts of the tropics every year, shaping ecosystem structure and functioning. Yet the complex interplay between climate, vegetation and human factors that drives fire dynamics is still poorly understood. Here we show that on all continents, except Australia, tropical fire regimes change drastically as mean annual precipitation falls below 550 mm. While the frequency of fires decreases below this threshold, the size and intensity of wildfires rise sharply. This transition to a regime of Rare-Intense-Big fires (RIB-fires) corresponds to the relative disappearance of trees from the landscape. Most dry regions on the globe are projected to become substantially drier under global warming. Our findings suggest a global zone where this drying may have important implications for fire risks to society and ecosystem functioning.

21 CFR 181.25 - Driers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... migrating from food-packaging material shall include: Cobalt caprylate. Cobalt linoleate. Cobalt naphthenate... 21 Food and Drugs 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Driers. 181.25 Section 181.25 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) PRIOR-SANCTIONED FOOD...

Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obermeier, W. A.; Lehnert, L. W.; Kammann, C. I.; Müller, C.; Grünhage, L.; Luterbacher, J.; Erbs, M.; Moser, G.; Seibert, R.; Yuan, N.; Bendix, J.

2017-02-01

The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of recent global climate change. The stimulation of plant photosynthesis due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]) is widely assumed to increase the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants--the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CFE under future climates, including more frequent weather extremes, are controversial. Here we use data from 16 years of temperate grassland grown under `free-air carbon dioxide enrichment’ conditions to show that the CFE on above-ground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. The observed CFE was reduced or disappeared under wetter, drier and/or hotter conditions when the forcing variable exceeded its intermediate regime. This is in contrast to predictions of an increased CO2 fertilization effect under drier and warmer conditions. Such extreme weather conditions are projected to occur more intensely and frequently under future climate scenarios. Consequently, current biogeochemical models might overestimate the future NPP sink capacity of temperate C3 grasslands and hence underestimate future atmospheric [CO2] increase.

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

Snowmelt sensitivity to warmer temperatures: a field-validated model analysis, southern Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.

2014-12-01

for elevations >3100 m. Interestingly, the dominant effect of warmer temperatures on snowmelt was a reduction in daily melt rates. The drier year was most sensitive to temperature changes with a greater decrease in the number of days with high melt rates. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of snowmelt processes to warmer temperatures in the Sierra Nevada.

Counter flow cooling drier with integrated heat recovery

DOEpatents

Shivvers, Steve D [Prole, IA

2009-08-18

A drier apparatus for removing water or other liquids from various materials includes a mixer, drying chamber, separator and regenerator and a method for use of the apparatus. The material to be dried is mixed with a heated media to form a mixture which then passes through the chamber. While passing through the chamber, a comparatively cool fluid is passed counter current through the mixture so that the mixture becomes cooler and drier and the fluid becomes hotter and more saturated with moisture. The mixture is then separated into drier material and media. The media is transferred to the regenerator and heated therein by the hot fluid from the chamber and supplemental heat is supplied to bring the media to a preselected temperature for mixing with the incoming material to be dried. In a closed loop embodiment of the apparatus, the fluid is also recycled from the regenerator to the chamber and a chiller is utilized to reduce the temperature of the fluid to a preselected temperature and dew point temperature.

Food Safety for Warmer Weather

MedlinePlus

... Fight Off Food Poisoning Food Safety for Warmer Weather En español Send us your comments In warm-weather months, who doesn’t love to get outside ... to keep foods safe to eat during warmer weather. If you’re eating or preparing foods outside, ...

Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity

Treesearch

David D. Briske; Linda A. Joyce; H. Wayne Polley; Joel R. Brown; Klaus Wolter; Jack A. Morgan; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

2015-01-01

The ecological consequences of climate change are predicted to vary greatly throughout US rangelands. Projections show warming and drying in the southern Great Plains and the Southwest, warmer and drier summers with reduced winter snowpack in the Northwest, and warmer and wetter conditions in the northern Great Plains. Primarily through their combined effects on soil...

Portable Cooler/Warmers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Early in the space program, NASA recognized the need to replace bulky coils, compressers, and motors for refrigeration purposes by looking at existing thermoelectric technology. This effort resulted in the development of miniaturized thermoelectric components and packaging to accommodate tight confines of spacecraft. Koolatron's portable electronic refrigerators incorporate this NASA technology. Each of the cooler/warmers employs one or two miniaturized thermoelectric modules. Although each module is only the size of a book of matches, it delivers the cooling power of a 10-pound block of ice. In some models, the cooler can be converted to a warmer. There are no moving parts. The Koolatrons can be plugged into auto cigarette lighters, recreational vehicles, boats or motel outlets.

Research on design connotation of hair drier system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yongchuan; Wu, Qiong

2018-04-01

After the analysis and summary of the research on the design of hair drier system, the system design is focused on. Product system design is not only to study its entity, but also is recognized as the part, element and component with a systematic feature to deeply analyze the innovation way of product system design, which is taken as its concept to carry out the association analysis on the component elements of hair driers and the overall analysis and study on the system design process of hair dryers. The product life cycle is taken as the main goal, through system analysis, system synthesis and system optimization, to solve the problems of product design. It is of great practical significance.

Comparative study on the muscular load of the arms using hair driers.

PubMed

Harada, H; Katsuura, T; Kikuchi, Y

1995-12-01

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the muscular load of the arm when combing the hair using different "kuru-kuru" type of hair driers. Ten female students (20-24 years old) volunteered as subjects. Five combing patterns were conducted as follows: 1) comb outer layer of right side of hair using right hand, 2) comb outer layer of left side of hair using right hand, 3) comb inner layer of left side of hair using right hand, 4) comb outer layer of back hair using right hand, and 5) comb inner layer of right side of hair using left hand. Surface EMGs were recorded from M. flexor carpi ulnaris, M. brachioradialis, M. biceps brachii, M. triceps brachii, M. deltoideus and M. trapezius of both sides of body. Integrated EMGs (iEMGs) were used to evaluate muscular load for each of the seven different types of hair driers used. The relationship between iEMGs and weight, center of gravity, diameter, length, and circumference of each hair drier were examined. The weight of hair driers tended to be the effective factor on the muscular load. Muscular load also had a tendency to be affected by the shape of the grips. With regard to the hand size, the longer the thumb length, the smaller is the muscular load. It was suggested that a relatively large diameter of the bulb-shaped grip of the drier gave a smaller muscular load among the hair driers examined in the present experiment.

Drier Air, Lower Temperatures, and Triggering of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Jennifer L.; Link, Mark S.; Luttmann-Gibson, Heike; Laden, Francine; Schwartz, Joel; Wessler, Benjamin S.; Mittleman, Murray A.; Gold, Diane R.; Dockery, Douglas W.

2015-01-01

Background The few previous studies on the onset of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and meteorologic conditions have focused on outdoor temperature and hospital admissions, but hospital admissions are a crude indicator of atrial fibrillation incidence, and studies have found other weather measures in addition to temperature to be associated with cardiovascular outcomes. Methods Two hundred patients with dual chamber implantable cardioverter-defibrillators were enrolled and followed prospectively from 2006 to 2010 for new onset episodes of atrial fibrillation. The date and time of arrhythmia episodes documented by the implanted cardioverter-defibrillators were linked to meteorologic data and examined using a case-crossover analysis. We evaluated associations with outdoor temperature, apparent temperature, air pressure, and three measures of humidity (relative humidity, dew point, and absolute humidity). Results Of the 200 enrolled patients, 49 patients experienced 328 atrial fibrillation episodes lasting ≥30 seconds. Lower temperatures in the prior 48 hours were positively associated with atrial fibrillation. Lower absolute humidity (ie, drier air) had the strongest and most consistent association: each 0.5 g/m3 decrease in the prior 24 hours increased the odds of atrial fibrillation by 4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0%, 7%) and by 5% (95% CI: 2%, 8%) for exposure in the prior 2 hours. Results were similar for dew point but slightly weaker. Conclusions Recent exposure to drier air and lower temperatures were associated with the onset of atrial fibrillation among patients with known cardiac disease, supporting the hypothesis that meteorologic conditions trigger acute cardiovascular episodes. PMID:25756220

Impact of a drier Early-Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests.

PubMed

Mayle, Francis E; Power, Mitchell J

2008-05-27

This paper uses a palaeoecological approach to examine the impact of drier climatic conditions of the Early-Mid-Holocene (ca 8000-4000 years ago) upon Amazonia's forests and their fire regimes. Palaeovegetation (pollen data) and palaeofire (charcoal) records are synthesized from 20 sites within the present tropical forest biome, and the underlying causes of any emergent patterns or changes are explored by reference to independent palaeoclimate data and present-day patterns of precipitation, forest cover and fire activity across Amazonia. During the Early-Mid-Holocene, Andean cloud forest taxa were replaced by lowland tree taxa as the cloud base rose while lowland ecotonal areas, which are presently covered by evergreen rainforest, were instead dominated by savannahs and/or semi-deciduous dry forests. Elsewhere in the Amazon Basin there is considerable spatial and temporal variation in patterns of vegetation disturbance and fire, which probably reflects the complex heterogeneous patterns in precipitation and seasonality across the basin, and the interactions between climate change, drought- and fire susceptibility of the forests, and Palaeo-Indian land use. Our analysis shows that the forest biome in most parts of Amazonia appears to have been remarkably resilient to climatic conditions significantly drier than those of today, despite widespread evidence of forest burning. Only in ecotonal areas is there evidence of biome replacement in the Holocene. From this palaeoecological perspective, we argue against the Amazon forest 'dieback' scenario simulated for the future.

Effect of open air drying, LPG based drier and pretreatments on the quality of Indian gooseberry (aonla).

PubMed

Gudapaty, Pratibha; Indavarapu, Srinivas; Korwar, Girish R; Shankar, Arun Kumar; Adake, Ravi Kant V; Bandi, Venkateshwarlu; Kanchu, Srinivas Rao

2010-10-01

The aonla fruits (whole fruit, pricking, splits, segments) were subjected to pretreatments like blanching, osmotic dehydration with salt (2%) and sugar (40%) in different experiments before drying to obtain a product with better keeping quality. An LPG based drier (CRIDA drier) with capacity to dry 50 kg of fresh Indian gooseberry (aonla) was used. Nutritional quality and rehydration characteristics of CRIDA drier dried products were higher and free from contamination. Drying time was shortest for blanched and osmotically dehydrated segments dried in CRIDA drier and the product had better vitamin C retention, rehydration characteristics and sensory acceptability compared to sun or cabinet drier dried product. The additional expenditure spent on gas in CRIDA drier is compensated by reduced labour cost and higher price for the better quality product. Alternate energy sources like biogas and biomass can be used as fuel in the CRIDA drier.

Short-term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2017-11-01

While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process-level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short-term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ), the maximum rate of electron transport (J max ), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V pmax ), and foliar dark respiration (R d ) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C 3 and C 4 ), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well-watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C 3 species tending to preferentially accelerate CO 2 -limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C 4 species tending to preferentially accelerate light-limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of the performance of battery-operated fluid warmers.

PubMed

Lehavi, Amit; Yitzhak, Avraham; Jarassy, Refael; Heizler, Rami; Katz, Yeshayahu Shai; Raz, Aeyal

2018-06-07

Warming intravenous fluids is essential to prevent hypothermia in patients with trauma, especially when large volumes are administered. Prehospital and transport settings require fluid warmers to be small, energy efficient and independent of external power supply. We compared the warming properties and resistance to flow of currently available battery-operated fluid warmers. Fluid warming was evaluated at 50, 100 and 200 mL/min at a constant input temperature of 20°C and 10°C using a cardiopulmonary bypass roller pump and cooler. Output temperature was continuously recorded. Performance of fluid warmers varied with flows and input temperatures. At an input temperature of 20°C and flow of 50 mL/min, the Buddy Lite, enFlow, Thermal Angel and Warrior warmed 3.4, 2.4, 1 and 3.6 L to over 35°C, respectively. However, at an input temperature of 10°C and flow of 200 mL/min, the Buddy Lite failed to warm, the enFlow warmed 3.3 L to 25.7°C, the Thermal Angel warmed 1.5 L to 20.9°C and the Warrior warmed 3.4 L to 34.4°C (p<0.0001). We found significant differences between the fluid warmers: the use of the Buddy Lite should be limited to moderate input temperature and low flow rates. The use of the Thermal Angel is limited to low volumes due to battery capacity and low output temperature at extreme conditions. The Warrior provides the best warming performance at high infusion rates, as well as low input temperatures, and was able to warm the largest volumes in these conditions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

[Study on spray-drier preparation technology of weitai granules using orthogonal experiments].

PubMed

Qu, Cai-Hong; Yang, Li; Chen, Zhi-Liang

2006-04-01

To screen preparation technique in order to raise the end-product and economical efficiency of spray-drier preparation technology of weitai granules. Newly Fluid-bed-spray-drier-granulation technique was adoped and taken extracting technique, temperature of exit and entry and the matching of accessories as inspecting factors, two levels of each factors, end-product and the water content of semi-finished weitai granules as inspecting marker, the best preparation technique of weitai granules was screened by orthogonal desing. Among the 3 factors, the matching of accessories was most notalbe (P < 0.01), next was the temperature of exit and entry (P < 0.05). However, the extracting technique was of little importance (P > 0.05). The optimum spray-drier granulation technique of weitai granules is A3B1C3.

Drier Forest Composition Associated with Hydrologic Change in the Apalachicola River, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darst, Melanie R.; Light, Helen M.

2008-01-01

Forests of the Apalachicola River floodplain had shorter flood durations, were drier in composition, and had 17 percent fewer trees in 2004 than in 1976. The change to drier forest composition is expected to continue for at least 80 more years. Floodplain drying was caused by large declines in river levels resulting from erosion of the river channel after 1954 and from decreased flows in spring and summer months since the 1970s. Water-level declines have been greatest at low and medium flows, which are the most common flows (occurring about 80 percent of the time). Water levels have remained relatively unchanged during large floods which continue to occur about three times per decade. A study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey compared temporal changes in hydrologic conditions, forest composition, forest characteristics, and individual species of trees, as well as estimated the potential for change in composition of floodplain forests in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River. The study was conducted with the cooperation of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and the Northwest Florida Water Management District. Forest composition and field observations from studies conducted in 1976-1984 (termed '1976 data') were used as baseline data for comparison with data from plots sampled in 2004-2006 ('2004 data'). Flood durations were shorter in all periods subsequent to 1923-1976. The periods of record used to calculate flood durations for forest data were subsets of the complete record available (1923-2004). At sampled plots in all forest types and reaches combined, flood durations changed an average of more than 70 percent toward the baseline flood duration of the next drier forest type. For all forest types, changes in flood durations toward the next drier type were greatest in the upper reach (95.9 percent) and least in the lower reach (42.0 percent). All forests are expected to be 38.2 percent drier in species composition by 2085, the year

Baldcypress swamp management and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, Beth A.

2006-01-01

In the future, climates may become warmer and drier in the southeastern United States; as a result, the range of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamps may shrink. Managers of baldcypress swamps at the southern edge of the range may face special challenges in attempting to preserve these swamp habitats in the future if climates become warmer and drier.

RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL CHANGES IN CARBON STORAGE IN ARCTIC TUNDRA

EPA Science Inventory

Surface air temperature in arctic regions has increased since pre-industrial times, raising concerns that warmer and possibly drier conditions have increased soil decomposition rates, thereby stimulating the release to the atmosphere of the large stores of carbon (C) in arctic so...

Solar drying and organoleptic characteristics of two tropical African fish species using improved low-cost solar driers.

PubMed

Mustapha, Moshood K; Ajibola, Taiye B; Salako, Abdulbashir F; Ademola, Sunmola K

2014-05-01

This study was done to evaluate the drying performance, efficiency, and effectiveness of five different types of improved low-cost solar driers in terms of moisture loss from two tropical African fish species Clarias gariepinus (African sharp tooth catfish) and Oreochromis niloticus (Nile tilapia) and testing the organoleptic characteristics of the dried samples. The driers used were made from plastic, aluminum, glass, glass with black igneous stone, and mosquito net, with traditional direct open-sun drying as a control. A significant (P < 0.05) decrease in weight resulting from moisture loss in the two fish species was observed in all the driers, with the highest reduction occurring in the glass drier containing black stone. The rate of weight loss was faster in the first 4 days of drying with black stone-inserted glass drier showing the fastest drying rate with a constant weight in C. gariepinus attained on the 11th day and in O. niloticus on the eighth day. The slowest drier was plastic where a constant weight of the species were recorded on and 13th day and 11th day, respectively. Volunteers were used to assess the organoleptic characteristics of the dried samples and they showed lowest acceptability for the open-sun drying, while samples from the glass drier containing black stone had the highest acceptability in terms of the taste, flavor, appearance, texture, odor, palatability, and shelf-life. The low-cost solar driers were effective found in removing water from the fish resulting in significant loss of weight and moisture. The highest drying time, efficient performance, drying effectiveness, and high acceptability of the organoleptic parameters of the dried products from the black stone-inserted glass drier were due to the ability of the glass and the black stone to retain, transmit, and radiate heat to the fish sample all the time (day and night). These low-cost driers are simple to construct, materials for its construction readily available, easy to

Epiphyte response to drought and experimental warming in an Andean cloud forest

PubMed Central

Rapp, Joshua M.; Silman, Miles R.

2014-01-01

The high diversity and abundance of vascular epiphytes in tropical montane cloud forest is associated with frequent cloud immersion, which is thought to protect plants from drought stress. Increasing temperature and rising cloud bases associated with climate change may increase epiphyte drought stress, leading to species and biomass loss. We tested the hypothesis that warmer and drier conditions associated with a lifting cloud base will lead to increased mortality and/or decreased recruitment of epiphyte ramets, altering species composition in epiphyte mats. By using a reciprocal transplant design, where epiphyte mats were transplanted across an altitudinal gradient of increasing cloud immersion, we differentiated between the effects of warmer and drier conditions from the more general prediction of niche theory that transplanting epiphytes in any direction away from their home elevation should result in reduced performance. Effects differed among species, but effects were generally stronger and more negative for epiphytes in mats transplanted down slope from the highest elevation, into warmer and drier conditions, than for epiphyte mats transplanted from other elevations. In contrast, epiphytes from lower elevations showed greater resistance to drought in all treatments. Epiphyte community composition changed with elevation, but over the timescale of the experiment there were no consistent changes in species composition. Our results suggest some epiphytes may show resistance to climate change depending on the environmental and evolutionary context. In particular, sites where high rainfall makes cloud immersion less important for epiphyte water-balance, or where occasional drought has previously selected for drought-resistant taxa, may be less adversely affected by predicted climate changes. PMID:25165534

Epiphyte response to drought and experimental warming in an Andean cloud forest.

PubMed

Rapp, Joshua M; Silman, Miles R

2014-01-01

The high diversity and abundance of vascular epiphytes in tropical montane cloud forest is associated with frequent cloud immersion, which is thought to protect plants from drought stress. Increasing temperature and rising cloud bases associated with climate change may increase epiphyte drought stress, leading to species and biomass loss. We tested the hypothesis that warmer and drier conditions associated with a lifting cloud base will lead to increased mortality and/or decreased recruitment of epiphyte ramets, altering species composition in epiphyte mats. By using a reciprocal transplant design, where epiphyte mats were transplanted across an altitudinal gradient of increasing cloud immersion, we differentiated between the effects of warmer and drier conditions from the more general prediction of niche theory that transplanting epiphytes in any direction away from their home elevation should result in reduced performance. Effects differed among species, but effects were generally stronger and more negative for epiphytes in mats transplanted down slope from the highest elevation, into warmer and drier conditions, than for epiphyte mats transplanted from other elevations. In contrast, epiphytes from lower elevations showed greater resistance to drought in all treatments. Epiphyte community composition changed with elevation, but over the timescale of the experiment there were no consistent changes in species composition. Our results suggest some epiphytes may show resistance to climate change depending on the environmental and evolutionary context. In particular, sites where high rainfall makes cloud immersion less important for epiphyte water-balance, or where occasional drought has previously selected for drought-resistant taxa, may be less adversely affected by predicted climate changes.

Wicked Learning: Reflecting on "Learning to Be Drier"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golding, Barry; Brown, Mike; Foley, Annette; Smith, Erica; Campbell, Coral; Schulz, Christine; Angwin, Jennifer; Grace, Lauri

2009-01-01

In this final, collaborative paper in the "Learning to be drier" edition, we reflect on and draw together some of the key threads from the diverse narratives in our four site papers from across the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Our paper title, "Wicked learning", draws on a recent body literature (Rittel & Webber 1973)…

Relationship between the fungal complex causing Fusarium head blight of wheat and environmental conditions.

PubMed

Xu, X-M; Nicholson, P; Thomsett, M A; Simpson, D; Cooke, B M; Doohan, F M; Brennan, J; Monaghan, S; Moretti, A; Mule, G; Hornok, L; Beki, E; Tatnell, J; Ritieni, A; Edwards, S G

2008-01-01

ABSTRACT Over 4 years, the environmental conditions and the causal agents of Fusarium head blight (FHB) disease of wheat were determined in field sites in four European countries: Hungary, Ireland, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Polymerase chain reaction-based methods were used to detect each species causing FHB and quantify its DNA (as a measurement of fungal abundance) in the samples. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was used to determine the relationship of the incidence and abundance of each species with weather variables. CCA indicated that little variability in the species prevalence data was explained by the weather variables. In contrast, a greater proportion of variability in abundance data was accounted for by the weather variables. Most samples contained two or more species and statistical analysis suggested that these species tended to coexist at field sites. CCA also indicated that there were differences in the relationships of the prevalence and abundance of the six FHB species with environmental variables. Fusarium poae was associated with relatively drier and warmer conditions, whereas F. graminearum was associated with warmer/humid conditions. F. avenaceum and F. culmorum were both associated with niches of cooler/wet/humid conditions. Two Microdochium species were associated with regions of relatively cool/moderate temperatures and frequent rainfalls of short duration. The results also suggested that environmental conditions differentially affect the infection and colonization processes, and the comparative abundance of the six species.

The Golden Canopies (Infant Radiant Warmer)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The cradle warmer is based on technology in heated transparent materials developed by Sierracin Corporation, Sylmar, California he original application was in heated faceplates for the pressure suit heated faceplates worn by pilots of an Air Force/NASA reconnaissance and weather research plane. Later, Sierracin advanced the technology for other applications, among them the cockpit windows of the NASA X-15 supersonic research vehicle and the helmet faceplates of Apollo astronauts. Adapting the technology to hospital needs, Sierracin teamed with Cavitron Corporation, Anaheim, California, which produces the cradle warmer and two other systems employing Sierracin's electrically-heated transparencies. Working to combat the infant mortality rate, hospitals are continually upgrading delivery room and nursery care techniques. Many have special procedures and equipment to protect infants during the "period of apprehension," the critical six to 12 hours after delivery. One such item of equipment is an aerospace spinoff called the Infant Radiant Warmer, a "golden canopy" which provides uniform, controlled warmth to the infant's cradle. Warmth is vitally important to all newborns, particularly premature babies; they lose heat more rapidly than adults because they have greater surface area in comparison with body mass.

[Quality Improvement Project: Increasing the Rate of Proper Use of Infant Transferring Warmers].

PubMed

Huang, Hsiu-Yu; Fann, Guei-Ling

2015-10-01

Infant-transferring warmers provide a warm environment and emergency care facilities such ventilators for high-risk infants during transport. Accurate use of this warmer has been demonstrated to reduce rates of neonatal complications and increase rates of survival. This project found that, despite the complaints of nurses that warmers occasionally malfunctioned during the transfer process, warmer functions nearly always tested normal after use. Therefore, the researchers surveyed ward nurses to better understand the underlying reasons for these complaints. Results found that only 68.4% of those surveyed operated the warmer correctly. The reasons for improper use were analyzed and categorized as: Nurse-related factors - lack of warmer operating knowledge and experience in the clinic; System-related factors - lack of a standard operating procedure (SOP) and monitor/audit practices and an incomplete training protocol; Equipment-related factors - lack of an equipment preparation SOP and difficulties in setting the ventilator properly. The purpose of this project was to achieve a 100% rate of proper warmer use among nurses. Through continuous clinical education, we created a standard operating procedure for warmer operation, created a video and poster for warmer users, simplified the equipment preparation SOP, and periodically monitored and checked results. After the intervention, 100% of the nurses were able to use the warmers correctly. Additionally, the rate of satisfaction for nursing-warmer use among the participating nurses increased from 51.4% to 80.6%. This project effectively increased the rate for correctly using transferring warmers among participating nurses and improved the quality of medical care.

Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-04-01

Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N 2 O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N 2 O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions were temporary and

Effects of a warmer climate on seed germination in the subarctic

PubMed Central

Milbau, Ann; Graae, Bente Jessen; Shevtsova, Anna; Nijs, Ivan

2009-01-01

Background and Aims In a future warmer subarctic climate, the soil temperatures experienced by dispersed seeds are likely to increase during summer but may decrease during winter due to expected changes in snow depth, duration and quality. Because little is known about the dormancy-breaking and germination requirements of subarctic species, how warming may influence the timing and level of germination in these species was examined. Methods Under controlled conditions, how colder winter and warmer summer soil temperatures influenced germination was tested in 23 subarctic species. The cold stratification and warm incubation temperatures were derived from real soil temperature measurements in subarctic tundra and the temperatures were gradually changed over time to simulate different months of the year. Key Results Moderate summer warming (+2·5 °C) substantially accelerated germination in all but four species but did not affect germination percentages. Optimum germination temperatures (20/10°C) further decreased germination time and increased germination percentages in three species. Colder winter soil temperatures delayed the germination in ten species and decreased the germination percentage in four species, whereas the opposite was found in Silene acaulis. In most species, the combined effect of a reduced snow cover and summer warming resulted in earlier germination and thus a longer first growing season, which improves the chance of seedling survival. In particular the recruitment of (dwarf) shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Betula nana), trees (Alnus incana, Betula pubescens) and grasses (Calamagrostis lapponica, C. purpurea) is likely to benefit from a warmer subarctic climate. Conclusions Seedling establishment is expected to improve in a future warmer subarctic climate, mainly by considerably earlier germination. The magnitudes of the responses are species-specific, which should be taken into account when modelling population growth and migration

Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

2017-04-01

A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

Climate change and associated fire potential for the south-eastern United States in the 21st century

Treesearch

Anthony P. Bedel; Thomas L. Mote; Scott L. Goodrick

2013-01-01

Climate models indicate that the climate of the south-eastern US will experience increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration in the 21st century. The current study found that conditions in the south-eastern US will likely become drier overall, given a warmer environment during future winter and spring seasons. This study examined the potential effects of...

Global land moisture trends: drier in dry and wetter in wet over land.

PubMed

Feng, Huihui; Zhang, Mingyang

2015-12-11

The "dry gets drier, wet gets wetter" (DGDWGW) paradigm is widely accepted in global moisture change. However, Greve et al. have declared that this paradigm has been overestimated. This controversy leaves a large gap in the understanding of the evolution of water-related processes. Here, we examine the global moisture trends using satellite soil moisture for the past 35 years (1979-2013). Our results support those of Greve et al., although there are quantitative differences. Generally, approximately 30% of global land has experienced robust moisture trends (22.16% have become drier, and 7.14% have become wetter). Only 15.12% of the land areas have followed the DGDWGW paradigm, whereas 7.77% have experienced the opposite trend. A new finding is that there is a significant "drier in dry, wetter in wet" (DIDWIW) trend paradigm; 52.69% of the drying trend occurred in arid regions, and 48.34% of the wetter trend occurred in the humid regions. Overall, 51.63% of the trends followed the DIDWIW paradigm, and 26.93% followed the opposite trend. We also identified the DGDWGW and DIDWIW paradigms in low precipitation-induced arid regions in which the dry soil led to an increasing sensible heat flux and temperature and subsequently potential evapotranspiration.

Effects of Weather Conditions on Oxidative Stress, Oxidative Damage, and Antioxidant Capacity in a Wild-Living Mammal, the European Badger (Meles meles).

PubMed

Bilham, Kirstin; Newman, Chris; Buesching, Christina D; Noonan, Michael J; Boyd, Amy; Smith, Adrian L; Macdonald, David W

Wild-living animals are subject to weather variability that may cause the generation of reactive oxygen species, resulting in oxidative stress and tissue damage, potentially driving demographic responses. Our 3-yr field study investigated the effects of seasonal weather conditions on biomarkers for oxidative stress, oxidative damage, and antioxidant defense in the European badger (Meles meles). We found age class effects: cubs were more susceptible to oxidative stress and oxidative damage than adults, especially very young cubs in the spring, when they also exhibited lower antioxidant biomarkers than adults. Although previous studies have found that intermediate spring and summer rainfall and warmer temperatures favor cub survival, counterintuitively these conditions were associated with more severe oxidative damage. Oxidative damage was high in cubs even when antioxidant biomarkers were high. In contrast, adult responses accorded with previous survival analyses. Wetter spring and summer conditions were associated with higher oxidative damage, but they were also associated with higher antioxidant biomarkers. Autumnal weather did not vary substantially from normative values, and thus effects were muted. Winter carryover effects were partially evident, with drier and milder conditions associated with greater oxidative damage in the following spring but also with higher antioxidant capacity. Plausibly, warmer conditions promoted more badger activity, with associated metabolic costs at a time of year when food supply is limited. Modeling biomarkers against projected climate change scenarios predicted greater future risks of oxidative damage, although not necessarily exceeding antioxidant capacity. This interdisciplinary approach demonstrates that individual adaptive physiological responses are associated with variation in natural environmental conditions.

Different fire-climate relationships on forested and non-forested landscapes in the Sierra Nevada ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2015-01-01

In the California Sierra Nevada region, increased fire activity over the last 50 years has only occurred in the higher-elevation forests on US Forest Service (USFS) lands, and is not characteristic of the lower-elevation grasslands, woodlands and shrublands on state responsibility lands (Cal Fire). Increased fire activity on USFS lands was correlated with warmer and drier springs. Although this is consistent with recent global warming, we found an equally strong relationship between fire activity and climate in the first half of the 20th century. At lower elevations, warmer and drier conditions were not strongly tied to fire activity over the last 90 years, although prior-year precipitation was significant. It is hypothesised that the fire–climate relationship in forests is determined by climatic effects on spring and summer fuel moisture, with hotter and drier springs leading to a longer fire season and more extensive burning. In contrast, future fire activity in the foothills may be more dependent on rainfall patterns and their effect on the herbaceous fuel load. We predict spring and summer warming will have a significant impact on future fire regimes, primarily in higher-elevation forests. Lower elevation ecosystems are likely to be affected as much by global changes that directly involve land-use patterns as by climate change.

Pollen record from Ka'au Crater, Oahu, Hawaii: Evidence for a dry glacial maximum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hotchkiss, S.C.; Juvik, J.O.

Fossil pollen from a 3.5 m-long core from Ka'au Crater, Hawaii (elev. 460 m), yields a ca. 23,000-year record of regional vegetation history. Results indicate a full-glacial period drier and possibly cooler than present, a warmer and wetter early Holocene, and a somewhat drier late Holocene; this sequence agrees with earlier work by Selling (1948) on other islands. The oldest zone is donated by pollen of Chenopodium oahuense, Acacia koa, and Dodonaea viscosa; post-glacial pollen assemblages feature high percentages of Myrsine and Coprosma, followed by increases in Lycopodium cernuum Ilex anomala. Freycinetia arborea and Pritchardia. After about 8000 years ago,more » Chenopodium, Acacia, and Dodonaea increase, suggesting a return to drier conditions. Abundant pollen of Chenopodium oahuense, a plant of dry regions, during the last glacial maximum implies that neither the trade winds nor cyclonic storms were delivering as much moisture to the regional vegetation as they presently do. This suggests that the ocean surface temperature during the last glacial maximum may have been cooler than present, a finding contradictory to the reconstructions of the CLIMAP (1981) group, which show temperatures near Hawaii equal to or even warmer than present.« less

Pumps and warmers during amnioinfusion: is either necessary?

PubMed

Glantz, J C; Letteney, D L

1996-01-01

To determine if there is evidence from published reports that the use of infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion is beneficial. We identified all English-language amnioinfusion reports published since 1983 through Medline and references. Fourteen prospective papers with at least 40 subjects were identified. For the amnioinfusion and control groups in each study, odds ratios (OR) were calculated for cesarean delivery, fetal distress, meconium below the cords, low 5-minute Apgar score, and endometritis. Cumulative ORs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel inverse variance method. This process was repeated after separation into pump-gravity and warmed-unwarmed groups. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Amnioinfusion improved the ability of the fetus to tolerate labor (fetal distress OR 0.40), decreased the incidence of meconium below the cords (OR 0.16), and decreased the rate of cesarean delivery (OR 0.56). There were no demonstrable benefits associated with the use of warmers or pumps. In multiple regression analysis, infusion pumps were associated with a significantly increased risk of fetal distress (P = .01). The use of amnioinfusion is associated with a decreased risk of fetal distress, meconium below the cords, and cesarean delivery. To date, there is no demonstrable benefit using infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion.

Changes in the structural composition and reactivity of Acer rubrum leaf litter tannins exposed to warming and altered precipitation: climatic stress-induced tannins are more reactive.

PubMed

Tharayil, Nishanth; Suseela, Vidya; Triebwasser, Daniella J; Preston, Caroline M; Gerard, Patrick D; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2011-07-01

• Climate change could increase the frequency with which plants experience abiotic stresses, leading to changes in their metabolic pathways. These stresses may induce the production of compounds that are structurally and biologically different from constitutive compounds. • We studied how warming and altered precipitation affected the composition, structure, and biological reactivity of leaf litter tannins in Acer rubrum at the Boston-Area Climate Experiment, in Massachusetts, USA. • Warmer and drier climatic conditions led to higher concentrations of protective compounds, including flavonoids and cutin. The abundance and structure of leaf tannins also responded consistently to climatic treatments. Drought and warming in combination doubled the concentration of total tannins, which reached 30% of leaf-litter DW. This treatment also produced condensed tannins with lower polymerization and a greater proportion of procyanidin units, which in turn reduced sequestration of tannins by litter fiber. Furthermore, because of the structural flexibility of these tannins, litter from this treatment exhibited five times more enzyme (β-glucosidase) complexation capacity on a per-weight basis. Warmer and wetter conditions decreased the amount of foliar condensed tannins. • Our finding that warming and drought result in the production of highly reactive tannins is novel, and highly relevant to climate change research as these tannins, by immobilizing microbial enzymes, could slow litter decomposition and thus carbon and nutrient cycling in a warmer, drier world. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

PubMed

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-09-13

Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-08-01

Photosynthetic O2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q10 = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O2 production in a warmer ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

A risk assessment of climate change and the impact of forest diseases on forest ecosystems in the Western United States and Canada

Treesearch

John T. Kliejunas

2011-01-01

This risk assessment projects the effects of eight forest diseases under two climate-change scenarios (warmer and drier, warmer and wetter). Examples are used to describe how various types of forest diseases may respond to environmental changes. Forest diseases discussed in this report include foliar diseases, Phytophthora diseases, stem rusts,...

Energy metabolism and substrate utilization in low birth weight neonates under radiant warmers.

PubMed

Marks, K H; Nardis, E E; Momin, M N

1986-09-01

We evaluated the metabolic response to the thermal demands of an open radiant warmer device, as distinct from convection incubator, in 13 healthy premature infants (1.395 +/- 169 g, 28 +/- 12 days of age, mean +/- SD). Metabolic rate was 10% higher for infants under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (2.60 +/- 0.4 v 2.36 +/- 0.3 kcal/kg/h; P less than .05). The radiant warmer also induced a small (4%), but significant, increase in nonprotein respiratory quotient (0.94 +/- 0.1 v 0.90 +/- 0.1; P less than .05) and a 13% increase in carbon dioxide production (8.26 +/- 1.1 v 7.31 +/- 1.1 mL/kg/min; P less than .05). Subcutaneous fat accumulation (estimated from 60-second skin-fold thickness measurements) was greater under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (0.08 +/- 0.05 v 0.04 +/- 0.04 mm/d; P less than .05). Under the warmer, the infant's mean skin temperatures and core temperatures were normal and similar to those found in the incubator, but the foot temperature was on average 0.6 degrees C cooler. The average rate of weight gain (18 g/kg/d) was the same in the radiant environment. The pattern of the elevated metabolic rate, shift of respiratory quotient coupled with the accumulation of subcutaneous fat, and cool extremities of infants under the radiant warmer may represent a physiologic adaptive response to thermal stress. However, the reasons for the elevated metabolic rate are unclear, because activation of the sympathetic nervous system with the release of catecholamines is not apparently involved.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Aridity under conditions of increased CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Roderick, Micheal L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2016-04-01

A string of recent of studies led to the wide-held assumption that aridity will increase under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated global warming. Such results generally build upon analyses of changes in the 'aridity index' (the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) and can be described as a direct thermodynamic effect on atmospheric water demand due to increasing temperatures. However, there is widespread evidence that contradicts the 'warmer is more arid' interpretation, leading to the 'global aridity paradox' (Roderick et al. 2015, WRR). Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of modeled changes in a broad set of dryness metrics (primarily based on a range of measures of water availability) over a large range of realistic atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We use an ensemble of simulations from of state-of-the-art climate models to analyse both equilibrium climate experiments and transient historical simulations and future projections. Our results show that dryness is, under conditions of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming, generally decreasing at global scales. At regional scales we do, however, identify areas that undergo changes towards drier conditions, located primarily in subtropical climate regions and the Amazon Basin. Nonetheless, the majority of regions, especially in tropical and mid- to northern high latitudes areas, display wetting conditions in a warming world. Our results contradict previous findings and highlight the need to comprehensively assess all aspects of changes in hydroclimatological conditions at the land surface. Roderick, M. L., P. Greve, and G. D. Farquhar (2015), On the assessment of aridity with changes in atmospheric CO2, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5450-5463

Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: estimates of present and future conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Wylie, Bruce K.; Nield, Shawn J.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Finley, Andrew O.

2015-01-01

High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map nearsurface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels) maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of ~85%) were used to quantify changes in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions. Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone. The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments, and a wide-array of geophysical studies.

Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

PubMed Central

Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

2010-01-01

One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

PubMed

Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

2010-05-03

One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

2017-04-01

In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

Forced-Air Warmers and Surgical Site Infections in Patients Undergoing Knee or Hip Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Austin, Paul N

2017-01-01

The majority of the evidence indicates preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia reduces the incidence of many perioperative complications. Among the results of inadvertent perioperative hypothermia are increased bleeding, myocardial events, impaired wound healing, and diminished renal function. Most researchers agree there is an increased incidence of surgical site infections in patients who experience inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Forced-air warming is effective in preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Paradoxically, forced-air warmers have been implicated in causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. The results of investigations suggest these devices harbor pathogens and cause unwanted airflow disturbances. However, no significant increases in bacterial counts were found when forced-air warmers were used according to the manufacturer's directions. The results of one study suggested the incidence of surgical site infections in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty was increased when using a forced-air warmer. However these researchers did not control for other factors affecting the incidence of surgical site infections in these patients. Current evidence does not support forced-air warmers causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. Clinicians must use and maintain these devices as per the manufacturer's directions. They may consider using alternative warming methods. Well-conducted studies are needed to help determine the role of forced-air warmers in causing infections in these patients.

Forest disturbances under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2017-06-01

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

Forest disturbances under climate change

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2017-01-01

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124

Will the Arctic Land Surface become Wetter or Drier in Response to a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinzman, L. D.; Rawlins, M.; Serreze, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Walsh, J. E.

2015-12-01

There is much concern about a potentially "accelerated" hydrologic cycle, with associated extremes in weather and climate-related phenomena. Whether this translates into wetter or drier conditions across arctic landscapes remains an open question. Arctic ecosystems differ substantially from those in temperate regions, largely due to the interactions of extremes in climate and land surface characteristics. Ice-rich permafrost prevents percolation of rainfall or snowmelt water, often maintaining a moist to saturated active layer where the permafrost table is shallow. Permafrost may also block the lateral movement of groundwater, and act as a confining unit for water in sub- or intra-permafrost aquifers. However, as permafrost degrades, profound changes in interactions between groundwater and surface water occur that affect the partitioning among the water balance components with subsequent impacts to the surface energy balance and essential ecosystem processes. Most simulations of arctic climate project sustained increases in temperature and gradual increases in precipitation over the 21st century. However, most climatic models do not correctly represent the essential controls that permafrost exerts on hydrological, ecological, and climatological processes. If warming continues as projected, we expect large-scale changes in surface hydrology as permafrost degrades. Where groundwater gradients are downward (i.e. surface water will infiltrate to subsurface groundwater), as in most cases, we may expect improved drainage and drier soils, which would result in reduced evaporation and transpiration (ET). In some special cases, where the groundwater gradient is upward (as in many wetlands or springs) surface soils may become wetter or inundated as permafrost degrades. Further, since soil moisture is a primary factor controlling ecosystem processes, interactions between ecosystems, GHG emissions, and high-latitude climate must also be considered highly uncertain. These inter

Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

PubMed

Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

2016-01-01

Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

2016-09-01

This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

Mechanisms driving understory evergreen herb distributions across slope aspects: as derived from landscape position.

Treesearch

Robert J. Warren

2009-01-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the surface of south-facing slopes orients toward the sun and thus receives a greater duration and intensity of solar irradiation, resulting in a relatively warmer, drier...

Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Wu, Xiuchen; Liu, Hongyan; Li, Xiaoyan; Ciais, Philippe; Babst, Flurin; Guo, Weichao; Zhang, Cicheng; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Pavelka, Marian; Liu, Shaomin; Huang, Yongmei; Wang, Pei; Shi, Chunming; Ma, Yujun

2018-01-01

In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in-situ tree-ring records, eddy-covariance CO 2 and water flux measurements, and meta-analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep-rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco-hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temperature and hydrology affect methane emissions from Prairie Pothole Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bansal, Sheel; Tangen, Brian; Finocchiaro, Raymond

2016-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) in central North America consists of millions of depressional wetlands that each have considerable potential to emit methane (CH4). Changes in temperature and hydrology in the PPR from climate change may affect methane fluxes from these wetlands. To assess the potential effects of changes in climate on methane emissions, we examined the relationships between flux rates and temperature or water depth using six years of bi-weekly flux measurements during the snow-free period from six temporarily ponded and six permanently ponded wetlands in North Dakota, USA. Methane flux rates were among the highest reported for freshwater wetlands, and had considerable spatial and temporal variation. Methane flux rates increased with increasing temperature and water depth, and were especially high when conditions were warmer and wetter than average (163 ± 28 mg CH4 m−2 h−1) compared to warmer and drier (37 ± 7 mg CH4 m−2 h−1). Methane emission rates from permanent wetlands were less sensitive to changes in temperature and water depth compared to temporary wetlands, likely due to higher sulfate concentrations in permanent wetlands. While the predicted increase in temperature with climate change will likely increase methane emission rates from PPR wetlands, drier conditions could moderate these increases.

Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia

PubMed Central

Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K.; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

2016-01-01

Background Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Methods Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. Results We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. Conclusion To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia. PMID:27711116

Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

2015-12-01

The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

Is a warmer climate wilting the forests of the north?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taubes, G.

1995-03-17

The far-northern climate has warmed 2 degrees Celsium since the 1880s, much more than the rest of the world. A warmer climate might be expected to speed tree growth and drive the northern edge of the forest farther into the Arctic. However a 4 year study of growth rings in trees growing near the timberline in northern and central Alaska indicated differently. Two researchers, Jacoby and D`Arrigo of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, report that as the high latitudes warmed over the past 100 years, tree growth accelerated at first, but recently the growth rate has flattened while the climate continues tomore » warm. This article discusses how the research was done and the possible implications and explanations, including the possibility that warmer temperatures may encourage outbreaks of insect pests.« less

Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

2014-12-01

This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

ARE LAKES GETTING WARMER? REMOTE SENSING OF LARGE LAKE TEMPERATURES

EPA Science Inventory

Recent studies (Levitus et al., 2000) suggest a warning of the world ocean over the past 50 years. Freshwater lakes could also be getting warmer but thermal measurements to determine this are lacking. Large lake temperatures are vertically and horizontally heterogeneous and vary ...

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

2012-05-01

Eskers in the Dorsa Argentea Formation imply the presence of an ice sheet with a wet bed. With an ice sheet model, we examine a range of geothermal heat fluxes and warmer climates to determine what conditions could produce such an ice sheet.

Learning to Be Drier: A Case Study of Adult and Community Learning in the Australian Riverland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Mike; Schulz, Christine

2009-01-01

This article explores the adult and community learning associated with "learning to be drier" in the Riverland region of South Australia. Communities in the Riverland are currently adjusting and making changes to their understandings and practices as part of learning to live with less water. The analysis of adult and community learning…

Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition ameliorates the decline in tree growth caused by a drier climate.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Inés; Zak, Donald R; Burton, Andrew J; Pregitzer, Kurt S

2018-02-01

Most forest ecosystems are simultaneously affected by concurrent global change drivers. However, when assessing these effects, studies have mainly focused on the responses to single factors and have rarely evaluated the joined effects of the multiple aspects of environmental change. Here, we analyzed the combined effects of anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and climatic conditions on the radial growth of Acer saccharum, a dominant tree species in eastern North American forests. We capitalized on a long-term N deposition study, replicated along a latitudinal gradient, that has been taking place for more than 20 yr. We analyzed tree radial growth as a function of anthropogenic N deposition (ambient and experimental addition) and of summer temperature and soil water conditions. Our results reveal that experimental N deposition enhances radial growth of this species, an effect that was accentuated as temperature increased and soil water became more limiting. The spatial and temporal extent of our data also allowed us to assert that the positive effects of growing under the experimental N deposition are likely due to changes in the physiological performance of this species, and not due to the positive correlation between soil N and soil water holding capacity, as has been previously speculated in other studies. Our simulations of tree growth under forecasted climate scenarios specific for this region also revealed that although anthropogenic N deposition may enhance tree growth under a large array of environmental conditions, it will not mitigate the expected effects of growing under the considerably drier conditions characteristic of our most extreme climatic scenario. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A 500-year seasonally resolved δ18O and δ13C, layer thickness and calcite aspect record from a speleothem deposited in the Han-sur-Lesse cave, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Rampelbergh, M.; Verheyden, S.; Allan, M.; Quinif, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, L. R.; Keppens, E.; Claeys, P.

2015-06-01

Speleothem δ18O and δ13C signals enable climate reconstructions at high resolution. However, scarce decadal and seasonally resolved speleothem records are often difficult to interpret in terms of climate due to the multitude of factors that affect the proxy signals. In this paper, a fast-growing (up to 2 mm yr-1) seasonally laminated speleothem from the Han-sur-Lesse cave (Belgium) is analyzed for its δ18O and δ13C values, layer thickness and changes in calcite aspect. The studied record covers the period between AD 2001 and 1479 as indicated by layer counting and confirmed by 20 U / Th ages. The Proserpine proxies are seasonally biased and document drier (and colder) winters on multidecadal scales. Higher δ13C signals reflect increased prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and lower soil activity during drier (and colder) winters. Thinner layers and darker calcite relate to slower growth and exist during drier (and colder) winter periods. Exceptionally dry (and cold) winter periods occur from 1565 to 1610, at 1730, from 1770 to 1800, from 1810 to 1860, and from 1880 to 1895 and correspond to exceptionally cold periods in historical and instrumental records as well as European winter temperature reconstructions. More relative climate variations, during which the four measured proxies vary independently and display lower amplitude variations, occur between 1479 and 1565, between 1610 and 1730, and between 1730 and 1770. The winters during the first and last periods are interpreted as relatively wetter (and warmer) and correspond to warmer periods in historical data and in winter temperature reconstructions in Europe. The winters in the period between 1610 and 1730 are interpreted as relatively drier (and cooler) and correspond to generally colder conditions in Europe. Interpretation of the seasonal variations in δ18O and δ13C signals differs from that on a decadal and multidecadal scale. Seasonal δ18O variations reflect cave air temperature variations and

Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

2013-09-01

Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

Ecosystem carbon balance in a drier future: land-atmosphere exchanges of CO2, water and energy across semiarid southwestern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, J. A.; Scott, R. L.; Goulden, M.; Litvak, M. E.; Kolb, T.; Yépez, E. A.; Oechel, W. C.; Meyers, T. P.; Papuga, S. A.; Ponce-Campos, G.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Maurer, G. E.; Dore, S.; Garatuza, J.; Bell, T. W.; Krishnan, P.

2015-12-01

The southwest US and northwest Mexico are predicted to become warmer and drier, increasing disturbance, shifting ecosystem composition, and altering global CO2 cycling. However, direct measurements of ecosystem land-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in this region have lagged behind those in wetter regions. In this presentation we present a synthesis of CO2, water, and energy exchanges made at 25 Southwest eddy covariance sites (3-10 years each, n = 174 years). This regional gradient includes desert shrublands, grasslands, savannas, and forests and spans ranges of 200 - 800 mm in mean annual precipitation and 2 - 24 ⁰C mean annual temperature, a climate space that has been underrepresented in flux databases and publications. We compare measured fluxes against state-of-the-art remote sensing and modeling products representing current best regional estimates. We find that 65% of annual net ecosystem production of CO2 (NEP) is explained by water availability. Meanwhile, most of the unexplained NEP variability is related to site-specific differences persisting over the observation years, suggesting slow-changing controls such as demography (plant type, age, structure) and legacies of disturbance. Disturbances that kill plants without removing biomass, such as drought, tend to decrease productivity and increase respiration, shifting sites from carbon sinks to sources. However, following disturbances that removed biomass, such as fire, both productivity and respiration decline, with minimal impacts on NEP. Remote sensing and modeling match mean CO2 uptake measurements across spatial gradients in climate and plant functional type. However, measured uptake reveals 200-400% greater interannual variability than model estimates. High variability and sensitivity to water help us understand why semiarid ecosystems dominate the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink in global accounting studies.

Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

2012-01-01

The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

Spatial modeling to project Southern Appalachian Trout distribution in warmer climate

Treesearch

Patrica A. Flebbe; Laura D. Roghair; Jennifer L. Bruggink

2006-01-01

In the southern Appalachian Mountains, the distributions of native brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and brown trout Salmo trutta are presently limited by temperature and are expected to be limited further by a warmer climate. To estimate trout habitat in a future...

Admission temperatures following radiant warmer or incubator transport for preterm infants <28 weeks: a randomised study.

PubMed

Meyer, Michael P; Bold, Geoff T

2007-07-01

Sixty two infants <28 weeks were occlusively wrapped and randomised to radiant warmer or incubator transport to the neonatal unit. Median axillary temperature on arrival was 36.8 degrees C in both groups. Target temperatures (36.5-37.5 degrees C) were achieved in 60% of the incubator group compared to 75% in the warmer group (not statistically significant). While powered to detect a 35% difference between warming devices, a more modest difference is not excluded.

Learning to Be Drier in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin: Setting the Scene for This Research Volume

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golding, Barry; Campbell, Coral

2009-01-01

In this article, the authors set the scene for this research volume. They sought to emphasize and broaden their interest and concern about their "Learning to be drier" theme in this edition to the 77 per cent of Australians who live within 50 km of the Australian coast, the majority of whom also live in major cities and urban complexes.…

Radiant energy and insensible water loss in the premature newborn infant nursed under a radiant warmer.

PubMed

Baumgart, S

1982-10-01

Radiant warmers are a powerful and efficient source of heat serving to warm the cold-stressed infant acutely and to provide uninterrupted maintenance of body temperature despite a multiplicity of nursing, medical, and surgical procedures required to care for the critically ill premature newborn in today's intensive care nursery. A recognized side-effect of radiant warmer beds is the now well-documented increase in insensible water loss through evaporation from an infant's skin. Particularly the very-low-birth-weight, severely premature, and critically ill neonate is subject to this increase in evaporative water loss. The clinician caring for the infant is faced with the difficult problem of fluid and electrolyte balance, which requires vigilant monitoring of all parameters of fluid homeostasis. Compounding these difficulties, other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (for example, phototherapy) may affect an infant's fluid metabolism by mechanisms that are not well understood. The role of plastic heat shielding in reducing large insensible losses in infants nursed on radiant warmer beds is currently under intense investigation. Apparently, convective air currents and not radiant heat energy may be the cause of the observed increase in insensible water loss in the intensive care nursery. A thin plastic blanket may be effective in reducing evaporative water loss by diminishing an infant's exposure to convective air currents while being nursed on an open radiant warmer bed. A rigid plastic body hood, although effective as a radiant heat shield, is not as effective in preventing exposure to convection in the intensive care nursery and, therefore, is not as effective as the thin plastic blanket in reducing insensible water loss. Care should be exercised in determining the effect of heat shielding on all parameters of heat exchange (convection, evaporation, and radiation) before application is made to the critically ill premature infant nursed on an open radiant

Evaluation of biogeographical factors in the native range to improve the success of biological control agents in the introduced range

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biogeographical factors associated with Arundo donax in its native range were evaluated in reference to its key herbivore, an armored scale, Rhizaspidiotus donacis. Climate modeling from location data in Spain and France accurately predicted the native range of the scale in the warmer, drier parts o...

Warmer and wetter 6000 years ago?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beck, W.

1998-02-13

The author discusses recent work on thermometer systems which can be used to study past climatic temperatures. The {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio of marine carbonates was originally expected to provide a definitive answer following its introduction. However this ratio has been shown to be a function of temperature and the isotope ratio in seawater, which has been seen to vary on glacial time scales. Recent work to link the {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio with the Sr/Ca ratio measurement in corals has shown promise to factor out some of this variability. One interpretation of recent work with 6000 yearmore » corals is that sea temperatures were 1.2{degrees}C warmer, and the extratropics should have been wetter. The authors discuss other interpretations, and additional work to validate the use of these types of thermometer systems.« less

Quantifying in situ phenotypic variability in the hydraulic properties of four tree species across their distribution range in Europe

PubMed Central

Sterck, F.; Torres-Ruiz, J. M.; Petit, G.; Cochard, H.; von Arx, G.; Lintunen, A.; Caldeira, M. C.; Capdeville, G.; Copini, P.; Gebauer, R.; Grönlund, L.; Hölttä, T.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Peltoniemi, M.; Stritih, A.; Urban, J.; Delzon, S.

2018-01-01

Many studies have reported that hydraulic properties vary considerably between tree species, but little is known about their intraspecific variation and, therefore, their capacity to adapt to a warmer and drier climate. Here, we quantify phenotypic divergence and clinal variation for embolism resistance, hydraulic conductivity and branch growth, in four tree species, two angiosperms (Betula pendula, Populus tremula) and two conifers (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris), across their latitudinal distribution in Europe. Growth and hydraulic efficiency varied widely within species and between populations. The variability of embolism resistance was in general weaker than that of growth and hydraulic efficiency, and very low for all species but Populus tremula. In addition, no and weak support for a safety vs. efficiency trade-off was observed for the angiosperm and conifer species, respectively. The limited variability of embolism resistance observed here for all species except Populus tremula, suggests that forest populations will unlikely be able to adapt hydraulically to drier conditions through the evolution of embolism resistance. PMID:29715289

Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

PubMed

Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

2017-07-01

The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermal responses from repeated exposures to severe cold with intermittent warmer temperatures.

PubMed

Ozaki, H; Enomoto-Koshimizu, H; Tochihara, Y; Nakamura, K

1998-09-01

This study was conducted to evaluate physiological reaction and manual performance during exposure to warm (30 degrees C) and cool (10 degrees C) environments after exposure to very low temperatures (-25 degrees C). Furthermore, this experiment was conducted to study whether it is desirable to remove cold-protective jackets in warmer rooms after severe cold exposure. Eight male students remained in an extremely cold room for 20 min, after which they transferred into either the warm room or the cool room for 20 min. This pattern was repeated three times, and the total cold exposure time was 60 min. In the warm and cool rooms, the subjects either removed their cold-protective jackets (Condition A), or wore them continuously (Condition B). Rectal temperature, skin temperatures, manual performance, blood pressure, thermal, comfort and pain sensations were measured during the experiment. The effects of severe cold on almost all measurements in the cool (10 degrees C) environment were greater than those in the warm (30 degrees C) environment under both clothing conditions. The effects of severe cold on all measurements under Condition A except rectal temperature and toe skin temperature were significantly greater than those under Condition B in the cool environment but, not at all differences between Condition A and Condition B in the warm environments were significant. It was recognized that to remove cold-protective jackets in the cool room (10 degrees C) after severe cold exposure promoted the effects of severe cold. When rewarming in the warm resting room (30 degrees C), the physiological and psychological responses and manual performance were not influenced by the presence or absence of cold-protective clothing. These results suggest that it is necessary for workers to make sure to rewarm in the warm room outside of the cold storage and continue to wear cold-protective clothing in the cool room.

Pliocene environments and climates in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.

1991-01-01

The available evidence from the western United States suggests that the climate of the Early and Middle Pliocene (prior to ???2.4 Ma) was less seasonal (more equable) and generally more humid than now. Along the Pacific coast, summer drought was less pronounced than today. In the interior of the Pacific Northwest rainfall was more abundant and mild winter temperatures prevailed across much of the High Plains. In the Northwestern interior, a trend toward drier conditions began after ???4 Ma, although there may have been short periods of relatively humid conditions after this time. The period between 2.5 or 2.4-2.0 Ma was drier than earlier in the Pliocene throughout the American West, and apparently colder in many regions, although the occurrence of land tortoises as far north as Kansas may indicate intermittent frost-free conditions during this interval. After ???2.0 Ma conditions became warmer and more humid. The general climatic trends in the terrestrial data parallel fluctuations seen in North Pacific and in Oxygen Isotopic records of global glacial fluctuations. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the regional effects of Late Cenozoic uplift and mountain-building are generally in accord with the nature, direction, and amplitude of differences between Pliocene and modern climates. ?? 1991.

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

PubMed Central

Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

2017-01-01

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

PubMed

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

2017-11-21

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

Effect of global climate change on rare trees and shrubs

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall

2008-01-01

In the past, climate has fluctuated with periodsof cooler, warmer, drier or wetter weather thanat present. Plants have been able to adapt,but widespread, rapid warming could be disastrousfor rare trees and shrubs – i.e. thosenative species that are among an area’s most

Precipitation variation over eastern China and arid central Asia during the past millennium and its possible mechanism: Perspectives from PMIP3 experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jian; Yan, Qing; Jiang, Dabang; Min, Jinzhong; Jiang, Ying

2016-10-01

Multiproxies suggest a tripole humidity pattern in Asia in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 950-1250 A.D.) and Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500-1800 A.D.), with drier (wetter) conditions in arid central Asia (ACA), wetter (drier) conditions in North China, and drier (wetter) conditions in South China. However, the mechanisms behind this reconstructed humidity variation remain unclear. In this study, we investigate Asian humidity changes by using the last millennium simulations of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3). The results indicate that only one out of nine PMIP3 models (Meteorological Research Institute Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model version 3) can well reproduce the reconstructed humidity pattern. This model indicates that the tripole humidity pattern is mainly caused by precipitation changes in spring and summer and is prominent in the past millennium on a multidecadal time scale. In spring, the reduction (increase) of precipitation in ACA and South China is attributed to the northward (southward) shift of the westerlies and a weakened (strengthened) western Pacific subtropical high in the MCA (LIA). In summer, precipitation over ACA decreases (increases) due to a local descending (ascending) motion, while abundant (deficient) precipitation over eastern China results from the enhanced (depressed) summer monsoon. Moreover, we suggest that a La Niña (El Niño)-like condition may be the primary reason the tripole precipitation pattern was maintained in the MCA (LIA), although a warmer (colder) North Pacific and North Atlantic also play a role. The mechanisms must be further validated since most simulations fail to reproduce the reconstructed humidity condition in the MCA/LIA, making model-model comparisons difficult.

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

PubMed

Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

2013-06-01

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Rick A

2010-08-01

Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

Comparison of CH4 Emission and CO2 Exchange Between 2013 and 2014 in a Subarctic Peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarizia, P. E.; Verbeke, B. A.; McCalley, C. K.; Werner, S. L.; Malhotra, A.; Burke, S. A.; Crill, P. M.; Varner, R. K.

2014-12-01

One of the major concerns with climate change is the potential feedback from the emission of greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), from high latitude thawing organic soils. With increasing temperatures in Arctic regions, thawing permafrost palsas transition to wetter sedge-dominated wetlands, which account for 20-39% of global atmospheric CH4 burden. This rapid change in habitat raises the following question: how do CO2 exchange rates and CH4 emissions change along a gradient of permafrost thaw and what is the interannual variability in these fluxes? To address this question, we measured CO2 exchange, CH4 flux, vegetative type and vascular green area (VGA) along a thaw gradient during July of 2013 and 2014 in Stordalen Mire, Sweden. Environmental variables showed that 2013 and 2014 were climatically different; higher photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and measurements of water table level and temperature showed that 2014 was warmer and drier than 2013. Warmer conditions led to higher rates of respiration and gross primary productivity (GPP), with the largest increases observed in the palsa sites, likely due to an increase in mean temperature. Methane fluxes showed a less consistent response to climate differences between years, fluxes were higher in 2014 in the mostly inundated Eriophorum angustifolium dominated site and lower in the drier Sphagnum and Eriophorum vaginatum dominated sites. Results of this study highlight the need for accounting for interannual variability when predicting greenhouse gas emissions during permafrost thaw.

Response of high-elevation limber pine (Pinus flexilis) to multiyear droughts and 20th-century warming, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Robert D. Westfall; Diane L. Delany

2007-01-01

Limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) stands along the eastern escarpment of the Sierra Nevada, California, experienced significant mortality from 1985 to 1995 during a period of sustained low precipitation and high temperature. The stands differ from old-growth limber pine forests in being dense, young, more even-aged, and located in warmer, drier...

A decade of streamwater nitrogen and forest dynamics after a mountain pine beetle outbreak at the Fraser Experimental Forest, Colorado

Treesearch

Charles C. Rhoades; Robert M. Hubbard; Kelly Elder

2017-01-01

Forests of western North America are currently experiencing extensive tree mortality from a variety of bark beetle species, and insect outbreaks are projected to increase under warmer, drier climates. Unlike the abrupt biogeochemical changes typical after wildfire and timber harvesting, the outcomes of insect outbreaks are poorly understood. The mountain pine bark...

In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-15

occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional

Ten years after wildfires: How does varying tree mortality impact fire hazard and forest resiliency?

Treesearch

Camille S. Stevens-Rumann; Carolyn H. Sieg; Molly E. Hunter

2012-01-01

Severe wildfires across the western US have lead to concerns about heavy surface fuel loading and the potential for high-intensity reburning. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, often overly dense from a century of fire suppression, are increasingly susceptible to large and severe wildfires especially given warmer and drier climate projections for the future....

Tree responses to drought

Treesearch

Michael G. Ryan

2011-01-01

With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...

Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

2017-06-01

Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

Response of lizards to high-severity wildfires in a southern United States mixed pine/hardwood forest

Treesearch

Adam ​Duarte; Donald J. Brown; Michael R. J. Forstner

2017-01-01

High-severity forest fires are increasing in large areas of the southern and western United States as the climate becomes warmer and drier. Natural resource managers need a better understanding of the short- and long-term effects of wildfires on lizard populations, but there is a paucity of studies focused on lizard-wildfire relationships. We used a before-after,...

An 11 000-year-long record of fire and vegetation history at Beaver Lake, Oregon, central Willamette Valley

Treesearch

Megan K. Walsh; Christopher A. Pearl; Cathy Whitlock; Patrick J. Bartlein; Marc A. Worona

2010-01-01

High-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen analysis were used to reconstruct an 11 000-year-long record of fire and vegetation history from Beaver Lake, Oregon, the first complete Holocene paleoecological record from the floor of the Willamette Valley. In the early Holocene (ca 11 000-7500 calendar years before present [cal yr BP]), warmer, drier summers than at...

Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

2014-01-01

Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

Microclimatic conditions in different land-use systems in Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijide, Ana; Tiralla, Nina; Sabajo, Clifton; Panferov, Oleg; Gunawan, Dodo; Knohl, Alexander

2015-04-01

Over the last decades, Indonesia has experienced an unprecedented transformation of the land surface through deforestation and conversion from forest to other land-uses such as oil palm and rubber plantations. These transformations are expected to affect not only biodiversity and carbon storage, but also the biophysical conditions of the land surface, i.e. air and surface temperature, surface albedo, air humidity, and soil moisture. There is, however, a lack of quantitative information characterizing these differences with a systematic experimental design. We report results from micrometeorological measurements in four different land-use types (forest, rubber plantation, jungle rubber, and oil palm plantation, n=4) in two different landscapes in Jambi Province in Sumatra/Indonesia as well as remote sensing data from Landsat. Preliminary results show differences on the average within-canopy air temperature, with lowest values in the forest (24.70°C ± 0.01°C) and highest in oil palm and rubber plantations (25.45°C ± 0.02°C and 25.55°C ± 0.01°C respectively). The temperature ranges also varied between different land uses, from 6.27°C in the forest and up to 9.40 °C in oil palm between the 5 and 95% percentile. Relative air humidity followed an inverse trend to air temperature, with rubber and oil palm plantations being on average 6.29 and 5.37 % drier than the forest. Soil temperature was up to 1°C warmer in oil palm than in forest plots, while soil moisture was more influenced by the soil type in the different landscapes than by the land uses. In conclusion, our data demonstrate that land transformation in Indonesia results in distinctly different microclimatic conditions across land-use types.

Differences in Temperature Changes in Premature Infants During Invasive Procedures in Incubators and Radiant Warmers.

PubMed

Handhayanti, Ludwy; Rustina, Yeni; Budiati, Tri

Premature infants tend to lose heat quickly. This loss can be aggravated when they have received an invasive procedure involving a venous puncture. This research uses crossover design by conducting 2 intervention tests to compare 2 different treatments on the same sample. This research involved 2 groups with 18 premature infants in each. The process of data analysis used a statistical independent t test. Interventions conducted in an open incubator showed a p value of .001 which statistically related to heat loss in premature infants. In contrast, the radiant warmer p value of .001 statistically referred to a different range of heat gain before and after the venous puncture was given. The radiant warmer saved the premature infant from hypothermia during the invasive procedure. However, it is inadvisable for routine care of newborn infants since it can increase insensible water loss.

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

Performance analysis of an air drier for a liquid dehumidifier solar air conditioning system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Queiroz, A.G.; Orlando, A.F.; Saboya, F.E.M.

1988-05-01

A model was developed for calculating the operating conditions of a non-adiabatic liquid dehumidifier used in solar air conditioning systems. In the experimental facility used for obtaining the data, air and triethylene glycol circulate countercurrently outside staggered copper tubes which are the filling of an absorption tower. Water flows inside the copper tubes, thus cooling the whole system and increasing the mass transfer potential for drying air. The methodology for calculating the mass transfer coefficient is based on the Merkel integral approach, taking into account the lowering of the water vapor pressure in equilibrium with the water glycol solution.

Last interglacial plant macrofossils and climates from Ziegler Reservoir, Snowmass Village, Colorado, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strickland, Laura E.; Baker, Richard G.; Thompson, Robert S.; Miller, Dane M.

2014-01-01

Ninety plant macrofossil taxa from the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site near Snowmass Village, Colorado, record environmental changes at high elevation (2705 m asl) in the Rocky Mountains during the Last Interglacial Period. Present-day vegetation is aspen forest (Populus tremuloides) intermixed with species of higher (Picea, Abies) and lower (Artemisia, Quercus) elevations. Stratigraphic units 4–13 contain montane forest taxa found near the site today and several species that today generally live at lower elevations within (Abies concolor, Lycopus americanus) and outside Colorado (Najas flexilis). These data suggest near-modern climatic conditions, with slightly warmer summer and winter temperatures. This montane forest period was succeeded by a shorter treeless interval (Unit 14) representing colder and/or drier conditions. In units 15–16, conifer trees reoccur but deciduous and herb taxa are lacking, suggesting a return to warmer conditions, although cooler than during the earlier forest period. Comparison of these inferred paleoclimatic changes with the site's geochronologic framework indicates that the lower interval of sustained warmth correlates with late MIS 6–early 5b (~ 138–94 ka), the cold interval with MIS 5b (~ 94–87 ka), and the uppermost cool assemblages with MIS 5a (~ 87–77 ka).

Does warmer China land attract more super typhoons?

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiangde; Peng, Shiqiu; Yang, Xiangjing; Xu, Hongxiong; Tong, Daniel Q.; Wang, Dongxiao; Guo, Yudi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Chen, Lianshou; Yu, Wei; Li, Yineng; Lai, Zhijuan; Zhang, Shengjun

2013-01-01

Accurate prediction of where and when typhoons (or named hurricanes which form over the North Atlantic Ocean) will make landfall is critical to protecting human lives and properties. Although the traditional method of typhoon track prediction based on the steering flow theory has been proven to be an effective way in most situations, it slipped up in some cases. Our analysis of the long-term Chinese typhoon records reveals that typhoons, especially super typhoons (those with maximum sustained surface winds of greater than 51 ms−1), have a trend to make landfalls toward warmer land in China over the past 50 years (1960–2009). Numerical sensitivity experiments using an advanced atmospheric model further confirm this finding. Our finding suggests an alternative approach to predict the landfall tracks of the most devastating typhoons in the southeastern China. PMID:23519311

Plasticity in hydraulic architecture of Scots pine across Eurasia.

PubMed

Poyatos, R; Martínez-Vilalta, J; Cermák, J; Ceulemans, R; Granier, A; Irvine, J; Köstner, B; Lagergren, F; Meiresonne, L; Nadezhdina, N; Zimmermann, R; Llorens, P; Mencuccini, M

2007-08-01

Widespread tree species must show physiological and structural plasticity to deal with contrasting water balance conditions. To investigate these plasticity mechanisms, a meta-analysis of Pinus sylvestris L. sap flow and its response to environmental variables was conducted using datasets from across its whole geographical range. For each site, a Jarvis-type, multiplicative model was used to fit the relationship between sap flow and photosynthetically active radiation, vapour pressure deficit (D) and soil moisture deficit (SMD); and a logarithmic function was used to characterize the response of stomatal conductance (G(s)) to D. The fitted parameters of those models were regressed against climatic variables to study the acclimation of Scots pine to dry/warm conditions. The absolute value of sap flow and its sensitivity to D and SMD increased with the average summer evaporative demand. However, relative sensitivity of G(s) to D (m/G (s,ref), where m is the slope and G(s,ref) is reference G(s) at D = 1 kPa) did not increase with evaporative demand across populations, and transpiration per unit leaf area at a given D increased accordingly in drier/warmer climates. This physiological plasticity was linked to the previously reported climate- and size-related structural acclimation of leaf to sapwood area ratios. G (s,ref), and its absolute sensitivity to D(m), tended to decrease with age/height of the trees as previously reported for other pine species. It is unclear why Scots pines have higher transpiration rates at drier/warmer sites, at the expense of lower water-use efficiency. In any case, our results suggest that these structural adjustments may not be enough to prevent lower xylem tensions at the driest sites.

Agricultural Practice and Regional Climate Interactions in a Coupled Land Surface Mesoscale Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooley, H. S.; Riley, W. J.; Torn, M. S.

2003-12-01

Regional climate affects the timing of harvest for rain-fed crops. In response to dry conditions, for example, farmers may harvest crops earlier than they do under wet conditions. This removal of vegetation alters the land surface characteristics and may, in turn, affect regional climate conditions. We studied the dynamic relationship between land use practice, i.e. winter wheat harvest, and regional climate by applying a coupled climate (MM5) and land-surface (LSM1) model to the ARM-CART region of the Southern Great Plains. We compared early and late harvest scenarios, with winter wheat harvested on June 5 and July 5, respectively. Winter wheat is grown in a fairly uniform belt that accounts for 20% of the total land area over the domain of the ARM-CART. Results showed that harvest dramatically affects energy, momentum, and water fluxes. Regionally-averaged, 2 m air temperatures were 0.5-1\\deg C warmer in the early- compared to late-harvest case, with peak warming of 5\\deg C centered over the harvested area. Soils in the harvested area were drier and warmer in the top 10 cm. Near-surface soil water-filled pore space was reduced by 7% across the region, with a peak drying of 22% centered over the harvested area. Soils were up to 10\\deg C warmer, with area-averaged warming of ~0.6\\deg C at mid-day two weeks after harvest. Differences between scenarios were greatest during an initial two-week dry period. A subsequent wet period greatly reduced these differences.

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

2015-02-01

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O3) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O3 injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95-4.59°C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O3 precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O3 uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O3 uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O3 on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O3 pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Treesearch

Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

PubMed

Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE PAGES

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

Climate-mediated competition in a high-elevation salamander community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dallalio, Eric A.; Brand, Adrianne B,; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

The distribution of the federally endangered Shenandoah Salamander (Plethodon shenandoah) is presumed to be limited by competition with the Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus). In particular, the current distribution of P. shenandoah is understood to be restricted to warmer and drier habitats because of interspecific interactions. These habitats may be particularly sensitive to climate change, though the influence of competition may also be affected by temperature and relative humidity. We investigated the response of P. shenandoah to competition with P. cinereus under four climate scenarios in 3-dimensional mesocosms. The results suggest that, although climate change may alleviate competitive pressure from P. cinereus, warmer temperatures may also significantly influence the persistence of the species across its known range.

Climate fluctuations in the Czech Lands from AD 1500 compiled from various proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrovolný, Petr; Brázdil, Rudolf; Možný, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Kotyza, Oldřich; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš

2017-04-01

The territory of the Czech Lands (recent Czech Republic) belongs to European areas well covered by dedrochronological, documentary and instrumental data which can be used for climate reconstructions for the last c. 500 years, i.e. for description of climate fluctuations during the greater part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the subsequent period of the recent Global Warming. Synthesis of various existing reconstructions should help to create more consistent description of climate variability in that period in Central Europe. The contribution starts from characteristic of the basic features of three existing data sources and a general method of climate reconstruction. Monthly, seasonal and annual climate reconstructions based on different data are presented: a) temperature reconstructions derived from series of temperature indices, winter wheat harvest days and grape harvest days; b) precipitation reconstructions derived from series of precipitation indices and fir tree-rings; c) drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-index and PDSI) reconstructions derived from series of fir tree-rings, grape harvest days and documentary-based temperature and precipitation reconstructions. Basic features of past c. 500 years are represented by various time intervals of cooler and warmer climate on the one hand and wetter and drier climate on the other. Examples of such particularly warmer and drier period can be the 1530s (with extreme 1540 year) or colder and wetter conditions during the 1590s and 1690s. Outstanding extreme weather events during LIA in Central Europe are briefly mentioned and our findings are discussed with respect to climate fluctuations and forcings in wider European context. (This study was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project nos. 13-04291S and 17-10026S).

Accidental overheating of a newborn under an infant radiant warmer: a lesson for future use.

PubMed

Molgat-Seon, Y; Daboval, T; Chou, S; Jay, O

2013-09-01

A fully functional radiant warmer induced rapid and continuous increases in regional skin temperatures, heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure and respiratory rate in a newborn patient without corrective action. We report this case of passive overheating to create awareness of the risks associated with regulating radiant heat output based upon a single servo-controlled temperature.

Challenge theme 2: assuring water availability and quality in the 21st century: Chapter 4 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Callegary, James; Langeman, Jeff; Leenhouts, Jim; Martin, Peter

2013-01-01

Along the United States–Mexican border, the health of communities, economies, and ecosystems is inextricably intertwined with the availability and quality of water, but effective water management in the Borderlands is complicated. Water users compete for resources, and their needs are increasing. Managers are faced with issues such as finding a balance between agriculture and rapidly growing cities or maintaining public supplies while ensuring sufficient resources for aquatic ecosystems. In addition to human factors, the dry climate of the Borderlands, as compared to more temperate regions, also increases the challenge of balancing water supplies between humans and ecosystems. Warmer, drier, and more variable conditions across the southwestern United States—the projected results of climate change (Seager and others, 2007)—would further stress water supplies.

Hydrological Process of Martian Surface in Hesperian epoch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashiki, Y. A.; Sato, H.; Kuroki, R.; Miyamoto, H.; Hemmi, R.

2017-12-01

It is considered that the Mars in Noachian ecoch was much warmer temperature than current condition, with atmosphere and ocean supported by its magnetic actiity. Several valley which seems to be developed by ancient hydrological processes are obsered in Martian surface, is being considered to be built long time before. Some fluvial fun was formed during the following Hesperian epoch, which is considered as much cooler and drier than Noachian epoch. In this study, we applied Hydro-debris 2D model into Martian surface in Hesperian epoch in order to try develping surface vallay formation throughout hydrological processes. Sediment transport and associated small-scale debris-flow occurrence may be the key for valley formation, where might be the micro-habitable zone.

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yutong, Z., II; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Will the warmer temperature bring the more intensity precipitation?Over the past several decades, changes in climate are amplified over the Tibetan Plateau(TP), with warming trend almost being twice as large as the global average. In sharp contrast, there is a large spatial discrepancy of the variations in precipitation extremes, with increasing trends found in the southern and decreasing trends in central TP. These features motivate are urgent need for an observation-based understanding of how precipitation extremes respond to climate change. Here we examine the relation between precipitation intensity with atmospheric temperature, dew point temperature (Td) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) in Tibet Plateau. Owing to the influences of the westerlies and Indian monsoon on Tibetan climate, the stations can be divided into three sub-regions in TP: the westerlies region (north of 35°N, N = 28), the monsoon region (south of 30°N in TP, N = 31), and the transition region (located between 30°N and 35°N, N = 48). We found that the intensity precipitation does not follow the C-C relation and there is a mix of positive and negative slope. To better understand why different scaling occurs with temperature in district region, using the dew point temperature replace the temperature, although there is significant variability in relative humidity values, at most stations, there appears to be a general increase in relative humidity associated. It is likely that the observed rise in relative humidity can assist in explaining the negative scaling of extreme precipitation at westerlies domain and monsoon domain, with the primary reason why precipitation extremes expected to increase follows from the fact that a warmer atmosphere can "hold" more moisture. This suggests that not only on how much the moisture the atmosphere can hold, but on how much moisture exits in atmosphere. To understand the role of dynamic on extreme precipitation, we repeat the precipitation

Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Mitchell, Rob B.; Guan, Qingfeng; McCoy, Tim D.

2013-01-01

Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

[On academic thought and clinical application of LI Yan-Fang's middle-warmer energy method].

PubMed

Li, Li-Jun

2010-10-01

The present paper introduces LI Yan-Fang's middle-warmer energy method from acupoint selection, needling methods, treatment principle and his clinical experiences in treatment of stroke and insomnia etc. The acupuncture prescription of this method consist of Shangwan (CV 13), Zhongwan (CV 12), Jianli (CV 11), Xiawan (CV 10), Shuifen (CV 9), Huangshu (KI 16) and Qihai (CV 6) etc as the main acupoints combined with strict manipulation and depth of needling to treat clinical diseases.

Holocene environmental changes inferred from biological and sedimentological proxies in a high elevation Great Basin lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wahl, David B.; Starratt, Scott W.; Anderson, Lysanna; Kusler, Jennifer E.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Addison, Jason A.; Wan, Elmira

2015-01-01

Multi-proxy analyses were conducted on a sediment core from Favre Lake, a high elevation cirque lake in the northern Ruby Mountains, Nevada, and provide a ca. 7600 year record of local and regional environmental change. Data indicate that lake levels were lower from 7600-5750 cal yr BP, when local climate was warmer and/or drier than today. Effective moisture increased after 5750 cal yr BP and remained relatively wet, and possibly cooler, until ca. 3750 cal yr BP. Results indicate generally dry conditions but also enhanced climatic variability from 3750-1750 cal yr BP, after which effective moisture increased. The timing of major changes in the Favre Lake proxy data are roughly coeval and in phase with those recorded in several paleoclimate studies across the Great Basin, suggesting regional climatic controls on local conditions and similar responses at high and low altitudes.

Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

2017-12-01

We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

2015-12-01

High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback

Habitat Fragmentation can Modulate Drought Effects on the Plant-soil-microbial System in Mediterranean Holm Oak (Quercus ilex) Forests.

PubMed

Flores-Rentería, Dulce; Curiel Yuste, Jorge; Rincón, Ana; Brearley, Francis Q; García-Gil, Juan Carlos; Valladares, Fernando

2015-05-01

Ecological transformations derived from habitat fragmentation have led to increased threats to above-ground biodiversity. However, the impacts of forest fragmentation on soils and their microbial communities are not well understood. We examined the effects of contrasting fragment sizes on the structure and functioning of soil microbial communities from holm oak forest patches in two bioclimatically different regions of Spain. We used a microcosm approach to simulate the annual summer drought cycle and first autumn rainfall (rewetting), evaluating the functional response of a plant-soil-microbial system. Forest fragment size had a significant effect on physicochemical characteristics and microbial functioning of soils, although the diversity and structure of microbial communities were not affected. The response of our plant-soil-microbial systems to drought was strongly modulated by the bioclimatic conditions and the fragment size from where the soils were obtained. Decreasing fragment size modulated the effects of drought by improving local environmental conditions with higher water and nutrient availability. However, this modulation was stronger for plant-soil-microbial systems built with soils from the northern region (colder and wetter) than for those built with soils from the southern region (warmer and drier) suggesting that the responsiveness of the soil-plant-microbial system to habitat fragmentation was strongly dependent on both the physicochemical characteristics of soils and the historical adaptation of soil microbial communities to specific bioclimatic conditions. This interaction challenges our understanding of future global change scenarios in Mediterranean ecosystems involving drier conditions and increased frequency of forest fragmentation.

Performance comparison of improvised prehospital blood warming techniques and a commercial blood warmer.

PubMed

Milligan, James; Lee, Anna; Gill, Martin; Weatherall, Andrew; Tetlow, Chloe; Garner, Alan A

2016-08-01

Prehospital transfusion of packed red blood cells (PRBC) may be life saving for hypovolaemic trauma patients. PRBCs should preferably be warmed prior to administration but practical prehospital devices have only recently become available. The effectiveness of purpose designed prehospital warmers compared with previously used improvised methods of warming has not previously been described. Expired units of PRBCs were randomly assigned to a warming method in a bench study. Warming methods were exposure to body heat of an investigator, leaving the blood in direct sunlight on a dark material, wrapping the giving set around gel heat pads or a commercial fluid warmer (Belmont Buddy Lite). Methods were compared with control units that were run through the fluid circuit with no active warming strategy. The mean temperature was similar for all methods on removal from the fridge (4.5°C). The mean temperatures (degrees centigrade) for all methods were higher than the control group at the end of the circuit (all P≤0.001). For each method the mean (95% CI) temperature at the end of the circuit was; body heat 17.2 (16.4-18.0), exposure to sunlight 20.2 (19.4-21.0), gel heat pads 18.8 (18.0-19.6), Buddy Lite 35.2 (34.5-36.0) and control group 14.7 (13.9-15.5). All of the warming methods significantly warmed the blood but only the Buddy Lite reliably warmed the blood to a near normal physiological level. Improvised warming methods therefore cannot be recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contradictory cooling in a warmer world? the climate of the Mediterranean region during the ';Holocene Thermal Maximum'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, B.

2013-12-01

Extensive evidence from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that temperatures were warmer than present during the early-mid Holocene, a period known as the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). The existence of the HTM over lower mid-latitudes and the sub-tropics however is less clear, with pollen-based reconstructions in particular actually indicating a contrary cooling at this time in these regions. This apparent cooling is controversial because it is not shown in climate model simulations, which indicate that the HTM occurred across all extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is also supported by alkenone based SST reconstructions, which also show a much more widespread HTM than indicated by the pollen data. Here this problem is investigated by reviewing the evidence both for, and against, the HTM in the Mediterranean region, which represents one of the most intensively studied regions of sub-tropical climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This evidence includes a large number of both marine and terrestrial records that can be directly compared due to their close proximity around the Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight the potential for bias in both marine and terrestrial climate proxies, but despite many criticisms of the pollen-based record, it is shown that the existence of more extensive temperate vegetation in the early-mid Holocene in the Mediterranean is difficult to explain by anything other than a cooler climate. For instance, vegetation models driven by climate model output show that the warmer climate suggested by the models produces a HTM vegetation even more arid than today. The results have important implications in the interpretation of proxy records, but perhaps most importantly, the potential for climate models to underestimate cooling processes in a warmer world needs further investigation.

Middle Holocene Changes in Midwestern Precipitation Intensity Captured by Indiana Stalagmites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akers, P. D.; Brook, G. A.; Liang, F.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.

2017-12-01

Three stalagmites collected from Upper Porter Cave in southern Indiana provide a record of Midwestern hydroclimate changes for the period 2.3-8.4 ka BP. Our record spans the Middle Holocene, known as a time of mid-continental drying for North America and used as an analog for warmer future climates. The spatial extent of this drying is not well constrained, and some eastern North American records show wetter conditions coinciding with the drying of the continental interior. Southern Indiana is located on the eastern periphery of mid-continental North America, and our stalagmite records can help constrain the eastern extent of drying. Upper Porter Cave floods easily during heavy rain events, and modern observations suggest frequent cave flooding prevents stalagmite growth. Thus, we view periods of stalagmite growth as a proxy for a less intense and possibly drier precipitation regime that limits cave flooding. All three stalagmites began growing 8.4 ka BP and stopped growing 7.5 ka BP. This hiatus at 7.5 ka BP is associated with laminae dissolution and greater sediment incorporation (see image), supporting increased precipitation intensity and cave flooding at this time. This contrasts with concurrent drying in the mid-continent and suggests a Middle Holocene with a steeper east-west precipitation gradient than present. This period of greater precipitation intensity extended until 4.9 ka BP when one stalagmite re-initiated growth, possibly due to mid-continental dryness expanding eastward into southern Indiana. This renewed growth was intermittent at 4.7-4.9, 3.6-4.2, and 2.3-3.1 ka BP, and multi-century flood-driven hiatuses separate these drier periods. A more intense precipitation regime that lasts until present provoked final growth cessation at 2.3 ka BP. Combined with other regional hydroclimate records, our stalagmite suggests that the transition from the Middle to Late Holocene was a period of unstable precipitation regimes for the eastern mid

Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hong; Shiogama, Hideo; Zhang, Yuqing

2018-03-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement proposed a more ambitious climate change mitigation target on limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Scientific investigations on environmental risks associated with these warming targets are necessary to inform climate policymaking. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we present the first risk-based assessment of changes in global drought and the impact of severe drought on populations from additional 1.5 and 2 °C warming conditions. Our results highlight the risk of drought on a global scale and in several hotspot regions such as the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, southern Africa and Central Europe at both 1.5 and 2 °C global warming relative to the historical period, showing increases in drought durations from 2.9 to 3.2 months. Correspondingly, more total and urban populations would be exposed to severe droughts globally (+132.5 ± 216.2 million and +194.5 ± 276.5 million total population and +350.2 ± 158.8 million and +410.7 ± 213.5 million urban populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) and regionally (e.g., East Africa, West Africa and South Asia). Less rural populations (-217.7 ± 79.2 million and -216.2 ± 82.4 million rural populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds) would be exposed to severe drought globally under climate warming, population growth and especially the urbanization-induced population migration. By keeping global warming at 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels instead of 2 °C, there is a decrease in drought risks (i.e., less drought duration, less drought intensity and severity but relatively more frequent drought) and the affected total, urban and rural populations would decrease globally and in most regions. While challenging for both East Africa and South Asia, the benefits of limiting warming to below 1.5 °C in terms of global drought risk and impact reduction are significant.

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Warmer temperatures reduce net carbon uptake, but do not affect water use, in a mature southern Appalachian forest

Treesearch

A. Christopher Oishi; Chelcy F. Miniat; Kimberly A. Novick; Steven T. Brantley; James M. Vose; John T. Walker

2018-01-01

Increasing air temperature is expected to extend growing season length in temperate, broadleaf forests, leading to potential increases in evapotranspiration and net carbon uptake. However, other key processes affecting water and carbon cycles are also highly temperature-dependent. Warmer temperatures may result in higher ecosystem carbon loss through...

Simulations of the effect of a warmer climate on atmospheric humidity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, Anthony D.; Lacis, Andrew A.; Ruedy, Reto A.

1991-01-01

Increases in the concentration of water vapor constitute the single largest positive feedback in models of global climate warming caused by greenhouse gases. It has been suggested that sinking air in the regions surrounding deep cumulus clouds will dry the upper troposphere and eliminate or reverse the direction of water vapor feedback. This hypothesis has been tested by performing an idealized simulation of climate change with two different versions of a climate model which both incorporate drying due to subsidence of clear air but differ in their parameterization of moist convection and stratiform clouds. Despite increased drying of the upper troposphere by cumulus clouds, upper-level humidity increases in the warmer climate because of enhanced upward moisture transport by the general circulation and increased accumulation of water vapor and ice at cumulus cloud tops.

Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world.

PubMed

Griffis, Timothy J; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M; Wood, Jeffrey D; Millet, Dylan B; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T; Turner, Peter A

2017-11-07

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N 2 O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N 2 O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt-one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world-combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N 2 O emissions (316 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 to 585 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 ). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N 2 O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N 2 O-N⋅y -1 , on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N 2 O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N 2 O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals. Published under the PNAS license.

Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffis, Timothy J.; Chen, Zichong; Baker, John M.; Wood, Jeffrey D.; Millet, Dylan B.; Lee, Xuhui; Venterea, Rodney T.; Turner, Peter A.

2017-11-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt—one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world—combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1 to 585 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-Nṡy‑1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer.

PubMed

Paoli, Amélie; Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

2018-03-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

Consumption of atmospheric methane by tundra soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whalen, S. C.; Reeburgh, W. S.

1990-01-01

The results of field and laboratory experiments on methane consumption by tundra soils are reported. For methane concentrations ranging from below to well above ambient, moist soils are found to consume methane rapidly; in nonwaterlogged soils, equilibration with atmospheric methane is fast relative to microbial oxidation. It is concluded that lowering of the water table in tundra as a resulting from a warmer, drier climate will decrease methane fluxes and could cause these areas to provide negative feedback for atmospheric methane.

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sicard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.sicard@acri-st.fr; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate changemore » context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O{sub 3} injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46–1.08 °C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95–4.59 °C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O{sub 3} precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O{sub 3} uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O{sub 3} uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O{sub 3} on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O{sub 3} pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to

Were Semi-Arid Areas Wetter or Drier during the Pliocene?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feakins, S. J.; Liddy, H.; Tierney, J. E.

2014-12-01

Drying is projected for many semi-arid areas under global warming scenarios. The Pliocene provides a natural analog for global warmth, allowing us to test the terrestrial response to past warming. Today North East Africa (O to 12 N, 38 to 50 E) includes C3 shrubs in arid areas, C4 grasslands in semi-arid areas and C3 trees in the moister uplands. Here we take a biomarker approach to reconstructing terrestrial vegetation and hydrological changes in NE Africa during the Pliocene and develop complementary records of sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the Western Indian Ocean. We find the plant leaf wax carbon isotopic negative anomaly to be ambiguous. Woody cover interpretations suggest afforestation with C3 trees. But an alternative explanation, an increase of dry C3 shrublands, appears more likely based on drying evidence from hydrogen isotopes and pollen for an expansion of shrub taxa. Either change implies a contraction of the Miocene C4 grasslands. To explore the mechanisms for drying we look to the Western Indian Ocean and find biomarker trends show a coincident cooling (in contrast to Mg/Ca), providing a mechanism to reduce moisture supply to the continent. We are adding to the resolution and coverage of the d13C, dD, pollen and TEX86 records in order to assess whether this Pliocene scenario is robust. Specifically we are testing the hypothesis that a cooling trend in the Western Indian Ocean is coincident with a drying and C3 shrubland expansion. Our work to resolve these quite different scenarios (afforestation or aridification on land) is key, since model simulations have offered up both wetter and drier regional responses to Pliocene global warmth and questions about the direction of SST changes (warming or cooling Indian Ocean across the Pliocene) forms part of the larger present debate about the fidelity of Pliocene SST proxies.

Wildfire simulation using LES with synthetic-velocity SGS models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonough, J. M.; Tang, Tingting

2016-11-01

Wildland fires are becoming more prevalent and intense worldwide as climate change leads to warmer, drier conditions; and large-eddy simulation (LES) is receiving increasing attention for fire spread predictions as computing power continues to improve (see, e.g.,). We report results from wildfire simulations over general terrain employing implicit LES for solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes (N.-S.) and thermal energy equations with Boussinesq approximation, altered with Darcy, Forchheimer and Brinkman extensions, to represent forested regions as porous media with varying (in both space and time) porosity and permeability. We focus on subgrid-scale (SGS) behaviors computed with a synthetic-velocity model, a discrete dynamical system, based on the poor man's N.-S. equations and investigate the ability of this model to produce fire whirls (tornadoes of fire) at the (unresolved) SGS level. Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Mathematics.

[Responses of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth to climate warming in Great Xing' an Mountins: a case study in Mangui].

PubMed

Zhang, Xing-Liang; He, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Li, Na

2011-12-01

Based on the theory and methodology of dendrochronology, the tree ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Mangui of Great Xing' an Mountains was developed, and the relationships between the standardized tree ring width chronology and local climate factors (temperature and precipitation) as well as the effects of climate factors on the P. sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth were analyzed. In this region, the mean monthly temperature in April-August of current year was the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the increasing mean monthly temperature from April to August had negative effects to the radial growth. The simulation of the variations of the radial growth by the mean monthly temperature change in April-August showed that the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica would present a declining trend accompanied with the warmer and drier regional climate condition.

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - La Nina Still a 'cool' Problem Child, March 23, 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

These TOPEX/Poseidon data, collected over the latest 10-day sampling cycle, March 1 to 11, 2000, show the La Nina condition still exists. The image of sea surface heights reflects unusual patterns of heat storage in the ocean. Sea-surface height is shown relative to normal height (green). The cooler water (blue and purple) measures between 8 and 24 centimeters (3 and 9 inches) lower than normal. The giant horseshoe of warmer water (red and white) continues to dominate the western Pacific with higher than normal sea-surface heights between 8 and 24 centimeters (3 and 9 inches).

This view of the oceans from TOPEX/Poseidon is an input to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seasonal forecasts. The impacts of current ocean conditions in the Pacific for spring in the U.S., according to Dr. Ants Leetmaa, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, imply drier than normal conditions for much of the southern half of the U.S. Leetmaa says the conditions also indicate above-normal rainfall in the Pacific northwest, and a warmer than normal U.S., except for the west coast where spring conditions will be near normal.

Scientists continue to debate whether this image hints at the presence of a large, longer lasting climate pattern, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This long-term pattern that covers most of the Pacific Ocean has significant implications for global climate, especially over North America.

The U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon mission is managed JPL for the NASA's Earth Science Enterprise, Washington, D.C. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function for estimating pliocene-Holocene paleoceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Poore, R.Z.

1990-01-01

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function (GSF18) related 5 North Atlantic assemblages to winter and summer sea surface temperature. GSF18, based on recombined and simplified core top census data, preserves most environmental information and reproduces modern North Atlantic conditions with approximately the same accuracy as previous transfer functions, but can be more readily applied to faunal samples ranging in age from Pliocene to Holocene. Transfer function GSF18 has been applied to faunal data from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 552A to produce a 2.5 m.y. sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. Estimates show several periods between 2.3 and 4.6 Ma during which mean SST's were both several degrees warmer and several degrees cooler than modern conditions. Between 2.9 and 4.0 Ma SST was generally warmer than modern except for a 250 k.y. interval centered at 3.3 Ma. Maximum SST, with respect to modern conditions, occurred after the cool interval near 3.1 Ma when SST was approximately 3.6??C warmer than present conditions. Comparison of SST estimates with stable isotope data suggest that after peak warming at 3.1 Ma, there was an overall surface water cooling with concomitant build up of global ice volume, culminating in Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This event is also indicated by the presence of ice rafted detritus in 552A sediments at about 2.45 Ma. ?? 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

PubMed Central

Paoli, Amélie; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species’ reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates’ births affects offspring survival and population’s recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females’ physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females’ calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change. PMID:29694410

Warm and touching tears: tearful individuals are perceived as warmer because we assume they feel moved and touched.

PubMed

Zickfeld, Janis H; Schubert, Thomas W

2018-01-31

Recent work investigated the inter-individual functions of emotional tears in depth. In one study (Van de Ven, N., Meijs, M. H. J., & Vingerhoets, A. (2017). What emotional tears convey: Tearful individuals are seen as warmer, but also as less competent. British Journal of Social Psychology, 56(1), 146-160. Https://doi.org/10.1111/bjso.12162) tearful individuals were rated as warmer, and participants expressed more intentions to approach and help such individuals. Simultaneously, tearful individuals were rated as less competent, and participants expressed less intention to work with the depicted targets. While tearful individuals were perceived as sadder, perceived sadness mediated only the effect on competence, but not on warmth. We argue that tearful individuals might be perceived as warm because they are perceived as feeling moved and touched. We ran a pre-registered extended replication of Van de Ven et al. Results replicate the warmth and helping findings, but not the competence and work effects. The increase in warmth ratings was completely mediated by perceiving feeling moved and touched. Possible functions of feeling moved and touched with regard to emotional tears are discussed.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Interannual and Seasonal Patterns of Carbon Dioxide, Water, and Energy Fluxes From Ecotonal and Thermokarst-Impacted Ecosystems on Carbon-Rich Permafrost Soils in Northeastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Edgar, Colin W.; Syndonia Bret-Harte, M.; Kade, Anja; Zimov, Nikita; Zimov, Sergey

2017-10-01

Eastern Siberia Russia is currently experiencing a distinct and unprecedented rate of warming. This change is particularly important given the large amounts of carbon stored in the yedoma permafrost soils that become vulnerable to thaw and release under warming. Data from this region pertaining to year-round carbon, water, and energy fluxes are scarce, particularly in sensitive ecotonal ecosystems near latitudinal treeline, as well as those already impacted by permafrost thaw. Here we investigated the interannual and seasonal carbon dioxide, water, and energy dynamics at an ecotonal forested site and a disturbed thermokarst-impacted site. The ecotonal site was approximately neutral in terms of CO2 uptake/release, while the disturbed site was either a source or neutral. Our data suggest that high rates of plant productivity during the growing season at the disturbed site may, in part, counterbalance higher rates of respiration during the cold season compared to the ecotonal site. We also found that the ecotonal site was sensitive to the timing of the freezeup of the soil active layer in fall, releasing more CO2 when freezeup occurred later. Both sites showed a negative water balance, although the ecotonal site appeared more sensitive to dry conditions. Water use efficiency at the ecotonal site was lower during warmer summers. Overall, these Siberian measurements indicate ecosystem sensitivity to warmer conditions during the fall and to drier conditions during the growing season and provide a better understanding of ecosystem response to climate in a part of the circumpolar Arctic where current knowledge is weakest.

The Effect of Intravenous Catheter Diameter on the Temperature of Fluids Warmed by the Level 1(TM) Fluid Warmer

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

9 Pathophysiology of hypothermia............ 11 Hypothermia and anesthesia................ 16 Causes of hypothermia...Various causes exist for the development of hypothermia and many are intrinsic to the surgical environment. Cool operating room temperatures, cold skin...slower infusion rates (< 20 ml/min) cause heat loss from fluids warmed by conventional warmers (Baker, 1985), similar loss may occur using rapid infusion

Drivers of Daily Routines in an Ectothermic Marine Predator: Hunt Warm, Rest Warmer?

PubMed Central

Papastamatiou, Yannis P.; Watanabe, Yuuki Y.; Bradley, Darcy; Dee, Laura E.; Weng, Kevin; Lowe, Christopher G.; Caselle, Jennifer E.

2015-01-01

Animal daily routines represent a compromise between maximizing foraging success and optimizing physiological performance, while minimizing the risk of predation. For ectothermic predators, ambient temperature may also influence daily routines through its effects on physiological performance. Temperatures can fluctuate significantly over the diel cycle and ectotherms may synchronize behaviour to match thermal regimes in order to optimize fitness. We used bio-logging to quantify activity and body temperature of blacktip reef sharks (Carcharhinus melanopterus) at a tropical atoll. Behavioural observations were used to concurrently measure bite rates in herbivorous reef fishes, as an index of activity for potential diurnal prey. Sharks showed early evening peaks in activity, particularly during ebbing high tides, while body temperatures peaked several hours prior to the period of maximal activity. Herbivores also displayed peaks in activity several hours earlier than the peaks in shark activity. Sharks appeared to be least active while their body temperatures were highest and most active while temperatures were cooling, although we hypothesize that due to thermal inertia they were still warmer than their smaller prey during this period. Sharks may be most active during early evening periods as they have a sensory advantage under low light conditions and/or a thermal advantage over cooler prey. Sharks swam into shallow water during daytime low tide periods potentially to warm up and increase rates of digestion before the nocturnal activity period, which may be a strategy to maximize ingestion rates. “Hunt warm, rest warmer” may help explain the early evening activity seen in other ectothermic predators. PMID:26061229

Late Holocene Hydroclimate Variability of West-Central Guatemala Driven by NAO and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stansell, N.; Feller, J. R.; Steinman, B. A.; Lachniet, M. S.; Shea, C.; Avendaño, C.

2016-12-01

Finely-laminated sediments from Lake San Francisco in the Huehuetenango province of west-central Guatemala provide a sub-decadal resolution record of hydroclimate variability spanning the last 5200 years. Age control is based on 7 radiocarbon samples of charcoal and lead-210 dating of surface sediments. Modern water isotope samples indicate the lake is currently an open system, and variations of δ18O values of precipitation in the region are driven largely by the amount effect. In contrast, a strong covariance of δ18O and δ13C values combined with pollen evidence in the lower part of the record suggests the lake was a seasonally closed-basin from 5200 to 3200 BP, and was sensitive to evaporation under more arid conditions. There was an overall trend of increasingly wetter conditions during the late Holocene, and a lack of covariance between δ18O and δ13C indicates that the lake transitioned to an open-basin after 3200 BP. The Medieval Climate Anomaly was the wettest period of the late Holocene, and there was a shift to lower precipitation amounts during the Little Ice Age. Present conditions are more arid than most of the last millennium, but δ18O values in the modern sediments are intermediate compared to the full late Holocene. The Lake San Francisco record provides additional evidence that the hydroclimate of Central America is sensitive to both changes in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier conditions at San Francisco over the length of the record were associated with more negative phases of NAO and vice versa. During the last 1500 years, drier conditions at San Francisco were also associated with warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3 region, and it was wetter when SSTs were colder.

Observed and Projected Droughts Conditioned on Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, F.; AghaKouchak, A.; Mazdiyasni, O.

2016-12-01

Droughts have had severe urban, agricultural and wildlife impacts in historical and recent years. In addition, during times of water scarcity, heat stress has been shown to produce compounding climatic and environmental effects. Understanding the overall conditions associated with drought intensities is important for mapping the anatomy of the climate in the changing world. For the study, we evaluated the relationship drought severity has exhibited with temperature shifts between observed periods and also between an ensemble of BCSD downscaled CMIP5 projected and historically modeled datasets. We compared temperatures during different categories of drought severity on a monthly scale, and mapped areas displaying an escalation of temperature with stricter definitions of drought. A historical shift of warmer temperatures in more severe droughts was observed most consistently in Southwestern and Eastern states between the later half of the 20th century and a reference period of the early half of the 20th century. Future projections from an ensemble of CMIP5 models also showed a shift to warmer temperatures during more intense drought events in similar states. Preliminary statistics show that in many areas future droughts will be warmer that the average projected climate. These observed and forecasted shifts in the heating intensity of severe drought events underscore the need to further research these patterns and relationships both spatially and temporally.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Denis; Person, Mark; Daannen, Ronnie; Locke, Sharon; Dahlstrom, Dave; Zabielski, Victor; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Wright, Herb; Ito, Emi; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.

2006-04-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction

Coexisting oak species, including rear-edge populations, buffer climate stress through xylem adjustments.

PubMed

Granda, E; Alla, A Q; Laskurain, N A; Loidi, J; Sánchez-Lorenzo, A; Camarero, J J

2018-02-01

The ability of trees to cope with climate change is a pivotal feature of forest ecosystems, especially for rear-edge populations facing warm and dry conditions. To evaluate current and future forests threats, a multi-proxy focus on the growth, anatomical and physiological responses to climate change is needed. We examined the long-term xylem adjustments to climate variability of the temperate Quercus robur L. at its rear edge and the sub-Mediterranean Quercus pyrenaica Willd. Both species coexist at a mesic (ME, humid and warmer) and a xeric (XE, dry and cooler) site in northern Spain, the latter experiencing increasing temperatures in recent decades. We compared xylem traits at each site and assessed their trends, relationships and responses to climate (1960-2008). Traits included basal area increment, earlywood vessel hydraulic diameter, density and theoretical-specific hydraulic conductivity together with latewood oxygen (δ18O) stable isotopes and δ13C-derived water-use efficiency (iWUE). Quercus robur showed the highest growth at ME, likely through enhanced cambial activity. Quercus pyrenaica had higher iWUE at XE compared with ME, but limited plasticity of anatomical xylem traits was found for the two oak species. Similar physiological performance was found for both species. The iWUE augmented in recent years especially at XE, likely explained by stomatal closure given the increasing δ18O signal in response to drier and sunnier growing seasons. Overall, traits were more correlated at XE than at ME. The iWUE improvements were linked to higher growth up to a threshold (~85 μmol mol-1) after which reduced growth was found at XE. Our results are consistent with Q. pyrenaica and Q. robur coexisting at the central and dry edge of the climatic species distribution, respectively, showing similar responses to buffer warmer conditions. In fact, the observed adjustments found for Q. robur point towards growth stability of similar rear-edge oak populations under

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Romanovsky, V.E.

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (???500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (???5.3 kg C mg-2), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (???0.1 kg C mg-2). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ???3.3 kg C mg-2, whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1-2.2 kg C mg-2). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ???6.1 kg C mg-2, whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ???5.6 kg C mg-2. A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ???5.4 kg C mg-2. Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers

Factors influencing atmospheric composition over subarctic North America during summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wofsy, Steven C.; Fan, S. -M.; Blake, D. R.; Bradshaw, J. D.; Sandholm, S. T.; Singh, H. B.; Sachse, G. W.; Harriss, R. C.

1994-01-01

Elevated concentrations of hydrocarbons, CO, and nitrogen oxides were observed in extensive haze layers over northeastern Canada in the summer of 1990, during ABLE 3B. Halocarbon concentrations remained near background in most layers, indicating a source from biomass wildfires. Elevated concentrations of C2Cl4 provided a sensitive indicator for pollution from urban/industrial sources. Detailed analysis of regional budgets for CO and hydrocarbons indicates that biomass fires accounted for approximately equal to 70% of the input to the subarctic for most hydrocarbons and for acetone and more than 50% for CO. Regional sources for many species (including CO) exceeded chemical sinks during summer, and the boreal region provided a net source to midlatitudes. Interannual variations and long-term trends in atmospheric composition are sensitive to climatic change; a shift to warmer, drier conditions could increase the areas burned and thus the sources of many trace gases.

Regional evaporation estimates in the eastern monsoon region of China: Assessment of a nonlinear formulation of the complementary principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming; Brutsaert, Wilfried

2016-12-01

The performance of a nonlinear formulation of the complementary principle for evaporation estimation was investigated in 241 catchments with different climate conditions in the eastern monsoon region of China. Evaporation (Ea) calculated by the water balance equation was used as the reference. Ea estimated by the calibrated nonlinear formulation was generally in good agreement with the water balance results, especially in relatively dry catchments. The single parameter in the nonlinear formulation, namely αe as a weak analog of the alpha parameter of Priestley and Taylor (), tended to exhibit larger values in warmer and humid near-coastal areas, but smaller values in colder, drier environments inland, with a significant dependency on the aridity index (AI). The nonlinear formulation combined with the equation relating the one parameter and AI provides a promising method to estimate regional Ea with standard and routinely measured meteorological data.

A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Wenfeng; Liu, Xi; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Xie, Luhua; Zhao, Jian-xin

2017-01-01

For the global oceans, the characteristics of high-resolution climate changes during the last millennium remain uncertain because of the limited availability of proxy data. This study reconstructs climate conditions using annually resolved coral records from the South China Sea (SCS) to provide new insights into climate change over the last millennium. The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900-1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850-present), which contradicts previous studies. The similar warmth levels for the MCA and CWP have also been recorded in the Makassar Strait of Indonesia, which suggests that the MCA was not warmer than the CWP in the western Pacific and that this may not have been a globally uniform change. Hydrological conditions were drier/saltier during the MCA and similar to those of the CWP. The drier/saltier MCA and CWP in the western Pacific may be associated with the reduced precipitation caused by variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation. As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550-1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity. The fresher/wetter LIA in the western Pacific may have been caused by the synchronized retreat of both the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon.

Impact of the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century climate change on peatland vegetation dynamics in central and northern Alberta using a multi-proxy approach and high-resolution peat chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnan, Gabriel; van Bellen, Simon; Davies, Lauren; Froese, Duane; Garneau, Michelle; Mullan-Boudreau, Gillian; Zaccone, Claudio; Shotyk, William

2018-04-01

Northern boreal peatlands are major terrestrial sinks of organic carbon and these ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change, act as sensitive archives of past environmental change at various timescales. This study aims at understanding how the climate changes of the last 1000 years have affected peatland vegetation dynamics in the boreal region of Alberta in western Canada. Peat cores were collected from five bogs in the Fort McMurray region (56-57° N), at the southern limit of sporadic permafrost, and two in central Alberta (53° N and 55° N) outside the present-day limit of permafrost peatlands. The past changes in vegetation communities were reconstructed using detailed plant macrofossil analyses combined with high-resolution peat chronologies (14C, atmospheric bomb-pulse 14C, 210Pb and cryptotephras). Peat humification proxies (C/N, H/C, bulk density) and records of pH and ash content were also used to improve the interpretation of climate-related vegetation changes. Our study shows important changes in peatland vegetation and physical and chemical peat properties during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling period mainly from around 1700 CE and the subsequent climate warming of the 20th century. In some bogs, the plant macrofossils have recorded periods of permafrost aggradation during the LIA with drier surface conditions, increased peat humification and high abundance of ericaceous shrubs and black spruce (Picea mariana). The subsequent permafrost thaw was characterized by a short-term shift towards wetter conditions (Sphagnum sect. Cuspidata) and a decline in Picea mariana. Finally, a shift to a dominance of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia (mainly Sphagnum fuscum) occurred in all the bogs during the second half of the 20th century, indicating the establishment of dry ombrotrophic conditions under the recent warmer and drier climate conditions.

Abrupt Climate Change in the Southern Great Plains during the Last Glacial Interval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Housson, A. L.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, B.; Shen, C. C.; Baykara, O.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; McChesney, C. L.

2016-12-01

Understanding how the climate of the North American Great Plains may change in the future is of tremendous socioeconomic importance, yet the regional response to previous abrupt global climate events, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the last glacial interval, are poorly known. Here we present two absolutely dated (U/Th), partially replicated oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from calcite speleothems in central Texas (30° N, 98° W) that grew during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3) (31 to 49 ky BP). The study site experiences boreal spring and fall maxima in precipitation with rainfall moisture sourced almost exclusively from the Gulf of Mexico. The two samples exhibit reproducible δ18O means and variability during overlapping growth intervals. Weak correlations between paired oxygen and carbon isotopic values coupled with reproducible δ18O strongly suggest that dripwater δ18O and calcite formation temperatures are the primary drivers of speleothem δ18O variations through time. We interpret more depleted (enriched) δ18O values to reconstruct warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on observations of modern rainfall stable isotope variations at the study site. We find that warmer and wetter conditions in the Southern Plains are contemporaneous with MIS 3 DO interstadials, while cooler and more arid conditions prevail during stadials and Heinrich Events 4 and 5. Our results show a response opposite that of hydrologic reconstructions from the American Southwest, where wetter conditions occur with stadial conditions. Future work includes exploration of paleoclimate model results to examine potential mechanisms responsible for this opposite phasing. Our speleothem data indicate that further intensification of rainy seasons in the Southern Plains should not be ruled out as a response to anthropogenic global warming.

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Ecological and environmental transition across the forested-to-open bog ecotone in a west Siberian peatland.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, Joshua L; Creevy, Angela; Andersen, Roxane; Zarov, Evgeny; Gaffney, Paul P J; Taggart, Mark A; Mazei, Yuri; Tsyganov, Andrey N; Rowson, James G; Lapshina, Elena D; Payne, Richard J

2017-12-31

Climate change may cause increasing tree cover in boreal peatlands, and the impacts of this encroachment will be noted first at forested-to-open bog ecotones. We investigate key metrics of ecosystem function in five such ecotones at a peatland complex in Western Siberia. Stratigraphic analysis of three cores from one of these transects shows that the ecotone has been dynamic over time with evidence for recent expansion of forested peatland. We observed that the two alternative states for northern boreal peatlands (forested/open) clearly support distinct plant and microbial communities. These in turn drive and respond to a number of feedback mechanisms. This has led to steep ecological gradients across the ecotones. Tree cover was associated with lower water tables and pH, along with higher bulk density, aquatic carbon concentrations, and electrical conductivity. We propose that the conditions found in the forested peatland of Western Siberia make the carbon sink more vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is Oklahoma getting drier?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; Sun, Wenbo; Hu, Yongxiang; Liu, Zhaoyan; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice)

2013-06-01

Land surface hydrology is important to regional climate, ecosystem, agriculture, and even human activities. Changes in soil moisture can produce considerable impacts on socioeconomics. Analysis of assimilation model results, especially those from the Community Land Model, shows that soil moisture over Oklahoma region is continuously reduced from 1980 to 2009. The potential drying trend in the Oklahoma region is evaluated by observations taken during last three decades in this study. Satellite data from Global Precipitation Climatology Project exhibit a clear precipitation decrease in the Oklahoma region during the last decade or so compared with those of two or three decades ago. Accompanying with the precipitation variation, land surface net radiation and temperature over the region are found increases by satellite and/or in-situ measurements. These changes in regional climate conditions also likely result in reduction of regional evaporation and enhancement of sensible heat transport from land surface into the atmosphere as indicated in assimilated data. These observed and modeled evidences of the changes in regional water and energy cycles lead us to conclude that the soil moisture over the Oklahoma region was reduced during the last decade. This soil moisture drop could increase a risk in water shortage for agriculture in the Oklahoma state if the dry period continues. Further investigations on the drying in the Oklahoma State or even entire Southern Great Plains are needed to mitigate potential droughts, reductions in vegetation products, and other socioeconomic impacts.

Vegetation limits the impact of a warm climate on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Girardin, Martin P; Ali, Adam A; Carcaillet, Christopher; Blarquez, Olivier; Hély, Christelle; Terrier, Aurélie; Genries, Aurélie; Bergeron, Yves

2013-09-01

Strategic introduction of less flammable broadleaf vegetation into landscapes was suggested as a management strategy for decreasing the risk of boreal wildfires projected under climatic change. However, the realization and strength of this offsetting effect in an actual environment remain to be demonstrated. Here we combined paleoecological data, global climate models and wildfire modelling to assess regional fire frequency (RegFF, i.e. the number of fires through time) in boreal forests as it relates to tree species composition and climate over millennial time-scales. Lacustrine charcoals from northern landscapes of eastern boreal Canada indicate that RegFF during the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 yr ago) was significantly higher than pre-industrial RegFF (AD c. 1750). In southern landscapes, RegFF was not significantly higher than the pre-industrial RegFF in spite of the declining drought severity. The modelling experiment indicates that the high fire risk brought about by a warmer and drier climate in the south during the mid-Holocene was offset by a higher broadleaf component. Our data highlight an important function for broadleaf vegetation in determining boreal RegFF in a warmer climate. We estimate that its feedback may be large enough to offset the projected climate change impacts on drought conditions. © 2013 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain.

PubMed

Dorado-Liñán, I; Akhmetzyanov, L; Menzel, A

2017-12-01

European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

2017-12-01

European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

2010-05-01

According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

2014-05-01

likely to remain the same until the 2040's, then followed by a second step of warming and drying trend. During the last ten years, local farmers have been experiencing difficulties to combine challenges from an increasing competition in markets and from hotter and drier conditions. Helped by public subsidies, almost one-third of the vineyard was pulled out during that period. Up until the 2040's, with similar conditions, the local viticultural system should continue its transformation, favouring dynamic, proactive and enterprising farmers. Thus the composition of the farming community might change gradually, and count in the 2040's a majority of producers with a higher individual adaptive capacity than now. The timing and intensity of near-future climate change as measured by the climate model, combined to regional economic change, might thus be an asset to prepare and facilitate adaptation in the longer term.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.

PubMed

Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C

2013-01-01

Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records.

Sensitivity of Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest Net Ecosystem Productivity to Seasonal Anomalies in Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frolking, Steve

1997-01-01

Abstract. A process-oriented, daily time step model of a spruce/moss boreal ecosystem simulated 1994 and 1995 productivity for a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study site near Thompson, Manitoba. Simulated black spruce net primary productivity (NPP) was 139 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 112 in 1995; feathermoss NPP was 13.0 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 9.7 in 1995; decomposition was 126 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 130 in 1995; net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was an uptake of 26.3 g C m(exp -2)in 1994 and 2.5 in 1995. A very dry period for the first half of the 1995 summer was the major cause of that year's lower productivity. Sensitivity simulations explored the impact of 2-month long warmer, cooler, wetter, and drier spells on ecosystem productivity. Warmer summers decreased spruce NPP, moss NPP, and NEP; cooler summers had the opposite effect. Earlier snowmelt (due to either warmer spring temperatures or reduced winter precipitation) increased moss and spruce NPP; later snowmelt had the opposite effect. The largest effect on decomposition was a 5% reduction due to a drier summer. One-month droughts (April through October) were also imposed on 1975 base year weather. Early summer droughts reduced moss annual NPP by -30-40%; summer droughts reduced spruce annual NPP by 10%; late summer droughts increased moss NPP by about 20% due to reduced respiration; May to September monthly droughts reduced heterotrophic respiration by about 10%. Variability in NEP was up to roughly +/- 35%. Finally, 1975 growing season precipitation was redistributed into frequent, small rainstorms and infrequent, large rainstorms. These changes had no effect on spruce NPP. Frequent rainstorms increased decomposition by a few percent, moss NPP by 50%, and NEP by 20%. Infrequent rainstorms decreased decomposition by 5%, moss NPP by 50% and NEP by 15%. The impact of anomalous weather patterns on productivity of this ecosystem depended on their timing during the year. Multiyear data sets are necessary to

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change.

PubMed

Carroll, Matthew J; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E; Thomas, Chris D

2015-07-31

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56-81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15-51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051-2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators.

Hydrologically driven ecosystem processes determine the distribution and persistence of ecosystem-specialist predators under climate change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Matthew J.; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Pearce-Higgins, James W.; Dennis, Peter; West, Chris; Holden, Joseph; Wallage, Zoe E.; Thomas, Chris D.

2015-01-01

Climate change has the capacity to alter physical and biological ecosystem processes, jeopardizing the survival of associated species. This is a particular concern in cool, wet northern peatlands that could experience warmer, drier conditions. Here we show that climate, ecosystem processes and food chains combine to influence the population performance of species in British blanket bogs. Our peatland process model accurately predicts water-table depth, which predicts abundance of craneflies (keystone invertebrates), which in turn predicts observed abundances and population persistence of three ecosystem-specialist bird species that feed on craneflies during the breeding season. Climate change projections suggest that falling water tables could cause 56–81% declines in cranefly abundance and, hence, 15–51% reductions in the abundances of these birds by 2051–2080. We conclude that physical (precipitation, temperature and topography), biophysical (evapotranspiration and desiccation of invertebrates) and ecological (food chains) processes combine to determine the distributions and survival of ecosystem-specialist predators. PMID:26227623

Deglacial climate variability in central Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Bernhardt, C.E.; Brooks, G.R.; Cronin, T. M.; Edgar, T.; Larson, R.

2007-01-01

Pollen and ostracode evidence from lacustrine sediments underlying modern Tampa Bay, Florida, document frequent and abrupt climatic and hydrological events superimposed on deglacial warming in the subtropics. Radiocarbon chronology on well-preserved mollusk shells and pollen residue from core MD02-2579 documents continuous sedimentation in a variety of non-marine habitats in a karst-controlled basin from 20 ka to 11.5 ka. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), much drier and cooler-than-modern conditions are indicated by pollen assemblages enriched in Chenopodiaceae and Carya, with rare Pinus (Pinus pollen increased to 20–40% during the warming of the initial deglaciation (∼ 17.2 ka), reaching near modern abundance (60–80%) during warmer, moister climates of the Bølling/Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka). Within the Bølling/Allerød, centennial-scale dry events corresponding to the Older Dryas and Intra-Allerød Cold Period indicate rapid vegetation response (

Climatic variation and the distribution of an amphibian polyploid complex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otto, C.R.V.; Snodgrass, J.W.; Forester, D.C.; Mitchell, J.C.; Miller, R.W.

2007-01-01

1. The establishment of polyploid populations involves the persistence and growth of the polyploid in the presence of the progenitor species. Although there have been a number of animal polyploid species documented, relatively few inquiries have been made into the large-scale mechanisms of polyploid establishment in animal groups. Herein we investigate the influence of regional climatic conditions on the distributional patterns of a diploid-tetraploid species pair of gray treefrogs, Hyla chrysoscelis and H. versicolor (Anura: Hylidae) in the mid-Atlantic region of eastern North America. 2. Calling surveys at breeding sites were used to document the distribution of each species. Twelve climatic models and one elevation model were generated to predict climatic and elevation values for gray treefrog breeding sites. A canonical analysis of discriminants was used to describe relationships between climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of H. chrysoscelis and H. versicolor. 3. There was a strong correlation between several climatic variables, elevation and the distribution of the gray treefrog complex. Specifically, the tetraploid species almost exclusively occupied areas of higher elevation, where climatic conditions were relatively severe (colder, drier, greater annual variation). In contrast, the diploid species was restricted to lower elevations, where climatic conditions were warmer, wetter and exhibited less annual variation. 4. Clusters of syntopic sites were associated with areas of high variation in annual temperature and precipitation during the breeding season. 5. Our data suggest that large-scale climatic conditions have played a role in the establishment of the polyploid H. versicolor in at least some portions of its range. The occurrence of the polyploid and absence of the progenitor in colder, drier and more varied environments suggests the polyploid may posses a tolerance of severe environmental conditions that is not possessed by the diploid

Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac

A 150-year record of ancient DNA, lipid biomarkers and hydrogen isotopes, tracing the microbial-planktonic community succession controlled by (hydro)climatic variability in a tropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smittenberg, Rienk; Yamoah, Kweku; Callac, Nolwenn; Fru, Ernest Chi; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Rattray, Jayne; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2016-04-01

We investigated the decadal variations in phytoplankton communities, and their response to environmental and climatic conditions, from a ˜150 year long sedimentary archive of Lake Nong Thale Prong (NTP), southern Thailand. We applied a combination of analyses: lipid biomarkers, compound-specific hydrogen isotopes, bulk carbon and nitrogen concentrations and isotopes, environmental SEM, and fossil DNA using qPCR targeted to specific taxa. Past hydrological conditions were reconstructed using the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf wax n-alkanes. Temperatures were reconstructed using the tetraether-based MBT/CBT index, measured using a new and efficient reverse-phase HPLC-MS method. The climatological data compared well with meteorological data from the last decades. Reconstructed drier and warmer conditions from ˜1857-1916 Common Era (CE) coincided with oligotrophic lake water conditions and dominance of the green algae Botryococcus braunii - evidenced by a combination of both fossil DNA and the occurrence of characteristic botryococcene lipids. A change to higher silica (Si) input ˜1916 CE was related to increased rainfall and lower temperatures concurring with an abrupt takeover by diatom blooms lasting for 50 years - as evidenced by ancient DNA, characteristic highly branched isoprenoid lipids, and SEM. From the 1970s onwards, more eutrophic conditions prevailed, and these were likely caused by increased levels of anthropogenic phosphate (P), aided by stronger lake stratification caused by dryer and warmer conditions. The eutrophic conditions led to increased primary productivity in the lake, consisting again of a Botryococcus sp., although this time not producing botryococcene lipids. Moreover, Cyanobacteria became dominant - again evidenced by ancient DNA and the characteristic C19 alkane. Throughout the record, stratification and primary production could be linked to the intensity of methane cycling, by targeting and quantifying the mcrA gene that is used

Extreme air pollution events in Hokkaido, Japan, traced back to early snowmelt and large-scale wildfires over East Eurasia: Case studies.

PubMed

Yasunari, Teppei J; Kim, Kyu-Myong; da Silva, Arlindo M; Hayasaki, Masamitsu; Akiyama, Masayuki; Murao, Naoto

2018-04-25

To identify the unusual climate conditions and their connections to air pollutions in a remote area due to wildfires, we examine three anomalous large-scale wildfires in May 2003, April 2008, and July 2014 over East Eurasia, as well as how products of those wildfires reached an urban city, Sapporo, in the northern part of Japan (Hokkaido), significantly affecting the air quality. NASA's MERRA-2 (the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2) aerosol re-analysis data closely reproduced the PM 2.5 variations in Sapporo for the case of smoke arrival in July 2014. Results show that all three cases featured unusually early snowmelt in East Eurasia, accompanied by warmer and drier surface conditions in the months leading to the fires, inducing long-lasting soil dryness and producing climate and environmental conditions conducive to active wildfires. Due to prevailing anomalous synoptic-scale atmospheric motions, smoke from those fires eventually reached a remote area, Hokkaido, and worsened the air quality in Sapporo. In future studies, continuous monitoring of the timing of Eurasian snowmelt and the air quality from the source regions to remote regions, coupled with the analysis of atmospheric and surface conditions, may be essential in more accurately predicting the effects of wildfires on air quality.

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting the response of the Amazon rainforest to persistent drought conditions under current and future climates: a major challenge for global land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joetzjer, E.; Delire, C.; Douville, H.; Ciais, P.; Decharme, B.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B.; Calvet, J. C.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Ferreira, L. V.; Meir, P.

2014-12-01

While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased water-use efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

The effects of urban warming on herbivore abundance and street tree condition.

PubMed

Dale, Adam G; Frank, Steven D

2014-01-01

Trees are essential to urban habitats because they provide services that benefit the environment and improve human health. Unfortunately, urban trees often have more herbivorous insect pests than rural trees but the mechanisms and consequences of these infestations are not well documented. Here, we examine how temperature affects the abundance of a scale insect, Melanaspis tenebricosa (Comstock) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), on one of the most commonly planted street trees in the eastern U.S. Next, we examine how both pest abundance and temperature are associated with water stress, growth, and condition of 26 urban street trees. Although trees in the warmest urban sites grew the most, they were more water stressed and in worse condition than trees in cooler sites. Our analyses indicate that visible declines in tree condition were best explained by scale-insect infestation rather than temperature. To test the broader relevance of these results, we extend our analysis to a database of more than 2700 Raleigh, US street trees. Plotting these trees on a Landsat thermal image of Raleigh, we found that warmer sites had over 70% more trees in poor condition than those in cooler sites. Our results support previous studies linking warmer urban habitats to greater pest abundance and extend this association to show its effect on street tree condition. Our results suggest that street tree condition and ecosystem services may decline as urban expansion and global warming exacerbate the urban heat island effect. Although our non-probability sampling method limits our scope of inference, our results present a gloomy outlook for urban forests and emphasize the need for management tools. Existing urban tree inventories and thermal maps could be used to identify species that would be most suitable for urban conditions.

Contrasting water strategies of two Mediterranean shrubs of limited distribution: uncertain future under a drier climate.

PubMed

Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Forner, Alicia; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

2013-12-01

Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with drought, involving alternative ecophysiologies and different levels of plasticity. These strategies are critical for species of limited distribution, which are especially vulnerable to the current rates of rapid environmental change. The aim of this study was to assess the water strategy of two species with limited distribution, Cneorum tricoccon L. and Rhamnus ludovici-salvatoris Chodat., and evaluate their interpopulation variability along an aridity gradient to estimate their vulnerability to a drier climate. We measured different ecophysiological traits influenced by drought--stomatal conductance, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosynthesis II, carbon isotope ratio and chlorophyll concentration--in two climatically contrasting years, before and during summer drought. Both species were vulnerable to drought at the aridity limit of the gradient, but showed contrasting water strategies: while C. tricoccon was consistent in its water conservation strategy across the aridity gradient, R. ludovici-salvatoris was not, displaying higher and more variable stomatal conductances and being able to increase water-use efficiency at the most xeric sites. Changes in length and intensity of drought events may favor one species' strategy to the detriment of the other: C. tricoccon is more vulnerable to chronic and prolonged droughts, whereas short but acute droughts might have a stronger effect on R. ludovici-salvatoris. In those communities where these two species coexist, such different strategies might lead to changes in community structure under climate change scenarios, with unknown cascade effects on ecosystem functioning.

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience

Close and distant: Contrasting the metabolism of two closely related subspecies of Scots pine under the effects of folivory and summer drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Sardans, Jordi; Hódar, José Antonio

The metabolome, the chemical phenotype of an organism, should be shaped by evolution. Metabolomes depend on genetic composition and expression, which can be sources of evolutionary inertia, so most aspects of metabolomes should be similar in closely related sympatric species. We examined the metabolomes of two sympatric subspecies of Pinus sylvestris in Sierra Nevada (southern Iberian Peninsula), one introduced (ssp. iberica) and one autochthonous (ssp. nevadensis), in summer and winter and exposed to folivory by the pine processionary moth. The overall metabolomes differed between the subspecies but both tended to respond more similarly to folivory. The metabolomes of the subspeciesmore » were more dissimilar in summer than in winter, and iberica trees had higher concentrations of metabolites directly related to drought stress. Our results suggest that certain plant metabolic responses associated with folivory have been conserved throughout evolutionary history. The larger divergence between subspecies metabolomes in summer is likely due to the warmer and drier conditions that the northern iberica subspecies experience in Sierra Nevada. Our results provide crucial insights into how iberica populations would respond to the predicted conditions of climate change under an increased defoliation, two recent severe issues in the Mediterranean Basin.« less

Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

2017-02-01

Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Eco-physiological characteristics and variation in water source use between montane Douglas-Fir and lodgepole pine trees in southwestern Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, S.; Flanagan, L. B.

2009-12-01

soils, lodgepole pine appears to have eco-physiological characteristics that allow it to better withstand and recover from exposure to summer water deficits that may increase in association with trends to warmer and drier conditions.

Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, H.

2017-12-01

The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not

Vegetation, substrate, and eolian sediment transport at Teesto Wash, Navajo Nation, 2009-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Amoroso, Lee

2012-01-01

On the Navajo Nation, southwestern United States, warming temperatures and recent drought have increased eolian (windblown) sediment mobility such that large, migrating sand dunes affect grazing lands, housing, and road access. We present an assessment of seasonal variations in sand transport, mobility, and ground cover (vegetation and substrate) within a 0.2-km2 study area near Teesto Wash, southern Navajo Nation, as part of a multiyear study measuring the effects of drought on landscape stability. Sand mobility in the study area decreased substantially as one year (2010) with near-normal monsoon rainfall somewhat abated a decade-long drought, temporarily doubling vegetation cover. The invasive annual plant Russian thistle (Salsola sp.), in particular, thrived after the monsoon rains of 2010. Vegetation that grew during that year with adequate rain died off rapidly during drier conditions in 2011 and 2012, and the proportion of bare, open sand area increased steadily after summer 2010. We infer that isolated seasonal increases in rainfall will not improve landscape stability in the long term because sustained increase in perennial plants, which are more effective than annual plants at stabilizing sand against wind erosion, requires multiple consecutive seasons of adequate rain. On the basis of climate projections, a warmer, drier climate and potentially enhanced sediment supply from ephemeral washes may further increase eolian sediment transport and dune activity, worsening the present challenges to people living in this region. Connections between climate, vegetation cover, and eolian sediment erodibility in this region also are highly relevant for studies in other regions worldwide with similar environmental characteristics.

Climate trends of the North American prairie pothole region 1906-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millett, B.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.

2009-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is unique to North America. Its millions of wetlands and abundant ecosystem goods and services are highly sensitive to wide variations of temperature and precipitation in time and space characteristic of a strongly continental climate. Precipitation and temperature gradients across the PPR are orthogonal to each other. Precipitation nearly triples from west to east from approximately 300 mm/year to 900 mm/year, while mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 1°C in the north to nearly 10°C in the south. Twentieth-century weather records for 18 PPR weather stations representing 6 ecoregions revealed several trends. The climate generally has been getting warmer and wetter and the diurnal temperature range has decreased. Minimum daily temperatures warmed by 1.0°C, while maximum daily temperatures cooled by 0.15°C. Minimum temperature warmed more in winter than in summer, while maximum temperature cooled in summer and warmed in winter. Average annual precipitation increased by 49 mm or 9%. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) trends reflected increasing moisture availability for most weather stations; however, several stations in the western Canadian Prairies recorded effectively drier conditions. The east-west moisture gradient steepened during the twentieth century with stations in the west becoming drier and stations in the east becoming wetter. If the moisture gradient continues to steepen, the area of productive wetland ecosystems will shrink. Consequences for wetlands would be especially severe if the future climate does not provide supplemental moisture to offset higher evaporative demand.

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; Cook, Edward; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Dietze, Michael C.; Hessl, Amy; Hubeny, J. Bradford; Jackson, Stephen T.; Marsicek, Jeremiah; McLachlan, Jason; Mock, Cary J.; Moore, David J. P.; Nichols, Jonathan; Peteet, Dorothy; Schaefer, Kevin; Trouet, Valerie; Umbanhowar, Charles; Williams, John W.; Yu, Zicheng

2017-10-01

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks - vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, disturbance regimes - are strongly influenced by multidecadal- to millennial-scale climate variations that cannot be directly observed. Paleoclimate records provide information about these variations, forming the basis of our understanding and modeling of them. Fossil pollen records are abundant in the NE US, but cannot simultaneously provide information about paleoclimate and past vegetation in a modeling context because this leads to circular logic. If pollen data are used to constrain past vegetation changes, then the remaining paleoclimate archives in the northeastern US (NE US) are quite limited. Nonetheless, a growing number of diverse reconstructions have been developed but have not yet been examined together. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions (primarily summer) show a long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE-1700 CE) consistent with hemispheric-scale reconstructions, while hydroclimate data show gradually wetter conditions through the present day. Multiple proxies suggest that a prolonged, widespread drought occurred between 550 and 750 CE. Dry conditions are also evident during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was warmer and drier than the Little Ice Age and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration of the longer-term wetting trend in the NE US during the past century; coupled with an abrupt shift from decreasing to increasing temperatures in the past century, these changes could have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate data in the NE US to make inter-proxy comparisons and to improve estimates of uncertainty in reconstructions.

Climatic History of the Northeastern United States During the Past 3000 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael;

Human thermal physiological and psychological responses under different heating environments.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaojun; Ning, Haoran; Ji, Yuchen; Hou, Juan; He, Yanan

2015-08-01

Anecdotal evidence suggests that many residents of severely cold areas of China who use floor heating (FH) systems feel warmer but drier compared to those using radiant heating (RH) systems. However, this phenomenon has not been verified experimentally. In order to validate the empirical hypothesis, and research the differences of human physiological and psychological responses in these two asymmetrical heating environments, an experiment was designed to mimic FH and RH systems. The subjects participating in the experiment were volunteer college-students. During the experiment, the indoor air temperature, air speed, relative humidity, globe temperature, and inner surface temperatures were measured, and subjects' heart rate, blood pressure and skin temperatures were recorded. The subjects were required to fill in questionnaires about their thermal responses during testing. The results showed that the subjects' skin temperatures, heart rate and blood pressure were significantly affected by the type of heating environment. Ankle temperature had greatest impact on overall thermal comfort relative to other body parts, and a slightly cool FH condition was the most pleasurable environment for sedentary subjects. The overall thermal sensation, comfort and acceptability of FH were higher than that of RH. However, the subjects of FH felt drier than that of RH, although the relative humidity in FH environments was higher than that of the RH environment. In future environmental design, the thermal comfort of the ankles should be scrutinized, and a FH cool condition is recommended as the most comfortable thermal environment for office workers. Consequently, large amounts of heating energy could be saved in this area in the winter. The results of this study may lead to more efficient energy use for office or home heating systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zolbrod, A.N.; Peterson, D.L.

1999-01-01

The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for (i) warmer, (ii) warmer and 20% wetter, and (iii) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

Surface clay formation during short-term warmer and wetter conditions on a largely cold ancient Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bishop, Janice L.; Fairén, Alberto G.; Michalski, Joseph R.; Gago-Duport, Luis; Baker, Leslie L.; Velbel, Michael A.; Gross, Christoph; Rampe, Elizabeth B.

2018-03-01

The ancient rock record for Mars has long been at odds with climate modelling. The presence of valley networks, dendritic channels and deltas on ancient terrains points towards running water and fluvial erosion on early Mars1, but climate modelling indicates that long-term warm conditions were not sustainable2. Widespread phyllosilicates and other aqueous minerals on the Martian surface3-6 provide additional evidence that an early wet Martian climate resulted in surface weathering. Some of these phyllosilicates formed in subsurface crustal environments5, with no association with the Martian climate, while other phyllosilicate-rich outcrops exhibit layered morphologies and broad stratigraphies7 consistent with surface formation. Here, we develop a new geochemical model for early Mars to explain the formation of these clay-bearing rocks in warm and wet surface locations. We propose that sporadic, short-term warm and wet environments during a generally cold early Mars enabled phyllosilicate formation without requiring long-term warm and wet conditions. We conclude that Mg-rich clay-bearing rocks with lateral variations in mixed Fe/Mg smectite, chlorite, talc, serpentine and zeolite occurrences formed in subsurface hydrothermal environments, whereas dioctahedral (Al/Fe3+-rich) smectite and widespread vertical horizonation of Fe/Mg smectites, clay assemblages and sulphates formed in variable aqueous environments on the surface of Mars. Our model for aluminosilicate formation on Mars is consistent with the observed geological features, diversity of aqueous mineralogies in ancient surface rocks and state-of-the-art palaeoclimate scenarios.

Climate driven egg and hatchling mortality threatens survival of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Blanco, Gabriela S; Stock, Charles A; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2012-01-01

Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niño increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ∼50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes.

Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

2018-02-01

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.

Metal and Metalloid Contaminants in Airborne Dust Associated with Mining Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterton, E. A.; Csavina, J. L.; Field, J. P.; Landázuri, A. C.; Felix Villar, O.; Rine, K. P.; Sáez, A.; Pence, J.; Shayan, H.; Russell, M.

2011-12-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, with potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. In this work, we report the size-resolved chemical characterization of atmospheric aerosols sampled near an inactive Superfund site and at an active mining and smelting site in Arizona. Aerosols were characterized with 10-stage (0.054 to 18 μm aerodynamic diameter) multiple orifice uniform deposit impactors (MOUDI), Dustrack monitors, and total suspended particulate (TSP) collectors. The MOUDI results show that arsenic and lead concentrations follow a bimodal distribution, with maxima centered at approximately 0.3 and 7.0 μm aerodynamic diameter. We hypothesize that the sub-micron arsenic and lead are the product of condensation and coagulation of smelting vapors. In the coarse size, contaminants are thought to originate as aeolian dust from mine tailings and other sources.

Holocene cold storage practices on the eastern Snake River Plain: A risk-mitigation strategy for lean times

DOE PAGES

Byers, David A.; Henrikson, L. Suzann; Breslawski, Ryan P.

2016-06-04

Previous archaeological research in southern Idaho has suggested that climate change over the past 8000 years was not dramatic enough to alter long-term subsistence practices in the region. However, recent isotopic analyses of bison remains from cold storage caves on the Snake River Plain contest this hypothesis. Our results, when examined against an archaeoclimate model, suggest that cold storage episodes coincided with drier, warmer phases that likely reduced forage and water, and thus limited the availability of bison on the open steppe. Within this context we build a risk model to illustrate how environment might have motivated cold storage behaviors.more » Caching bison in cold lava tubes would have mitigated both intra-annual and inter-annual food shortages under these conditions. This analysis also suggests that skeletal fat, more than meat, may have influenced the selection, transport and storage of bison carcass parts. We deciphered when and how cold storage caves which was used to provide a more comprehensive understanding of foraging behaviors in a broad range of hunting-gathering economies.« less

Research Spotlight: The varying life expectancies of American reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2011-04-01

Tasked with controlling floods, coping through droughts, generating electricity, maintaining the flow of drinking water, preserving species' habitats, and managing the local environment, the United States' large-scale freshwater management system is important. Unfortunately, as sediment is washed from river basins to reservoirs, the persistent addition of material eats away at a reservoir's capacity and, consequently, its useful life expectancy. Understanding the integrity of the reservoir system is particularly important, with climate projections anticipating warmer, drier conditions for some parts of the country. Using a database of sedimentation surveys conducted between 1775 and 1993, Graf et al. calculate the life expectancies of many of the nation's reservoirs. They find that although most of the country's large reservoirs were built between 1950 and 1960, they have a wide range of expiration dates. They find that most large reservoirs, those with capacities greater than 1.2 cubic kilometers (0.29 cubic mile), have useful life expectancies ranging from 200 to more than 1000 years, with the lowest average life expectancy in the interior West. (Water Resources Research, doi:10.1029/2009WR008836, 2010)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byers, David A.; Henrikson, L. Suzann; Breslawski, Ryan P.

Previous archaeological research in southern Idaho has suggested that climate change over the past 8000 years was not dramatic enough to alter long-term subsistence practices in the region. However, recent isotopic analyses of bison remains from cold storage caves on the Snake River Plain contest this hypothesis. Our results, when examined against an archaeoclimate model, suggest that cold storage episodes coincided with drier, warmer phases that likely reduced forage and water, and thus limited the availability of bison on the open steppe. Within this context we build a risk model to illustrate how environment might have motivated cold storage behaviors.more » Caching bison in cold lava tubes would have mitigated both intra-annual and inter-annual food shortages under these conditions. This analysis also suggests that skeletal fat, more than meat, may have influenced the selection, transport and storage of bison carcass parts. We deciphered when and how cold storage caves which was used to provide a more comprehensive understanding of foraging behaviors in a broad range of hunting-gathering economies.« less

What Would Happen to Superstorm Sandy Under the Influence of a Substantially Warmer Atlantic Ocean?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.; Kim, K. M.

2016-01-01

Based on ensemble numerical simulations, we find that possible responses of Sandy-like superstorms under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean bifurcate into two groups. In the first group, storms are similar to present-day Sandy from genesis to extratropical transition, except they are much stronger, with peak Power Destructive Index (PDI) increased by 50-80%, heavy rain by 30-50%, and maximum storm size (MSS) approximately doubled. In the second group, storms amplify substantially over the interior of the Atlantic warm pool, with peak PDI increased by 100-160%, heavy rain by 70-180%, and MSS more than tripled compared to present-day Superstorm Sandy. These storms when exiting the warm pool, recurve northeastward out to sea, subsequently interact with the developing midlatitude storm by mutual counterclockwise rotation around each other and eventually amplify into a severe Northeastern coastal storm, making landfall over the extreme northeastern regions from Maine to Nova Scotia.

Why is SMOS Drier than the South Fork In-situ Soil Moisture Network?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, V. A.; Hornbuckle, B. K.; Cosh, M. H.

2014-12-01

Global maps of near-surface soil moisture are currently being produced by the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission at 40 km. Within the next few months NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission will begin producing observations of near-surface soil moisture at 10 km. Near-surface soil moisture is the water content of the first 3 to 5 cm of the soil. Observations of near-surface soil moisture are expected to improve weather and climate forecasts. These satellite observations must be validated. We define validation as determining the space/time statistical characteristics of the uncertainty. A standard that has been used for satellite validation is in-situ measurements of near-surface soil moisture made with a network of sensors spanning the extent of a satellite footprint. Such a network of sensors has been established in the South Fork of the Iowa River in Central Iowa by the USDA ARS. Our analysis of data in 2013 indicates that SMOS has a dry bias: SMOS near-surface soil moisture is between 0.05 to 0.10 m^3m^{-3} lower than what is observed by the South Fork network. A dry bias in SMOS observations has also been observed in other regions of North America. There are many possible explanations for this difference: underestimation of vegetation, or soil surface roughness; undetected radio frequency interference (RFI); a retrieval model that is not appropriate for agricultural areas; or the use of an incorrect surface temperature in the retrieval process. We will begin our investigation by testing this last possibility: that SMOS is using a surface temperature that is too low which results in a drier soil moisture that compensates for this error. We will present a comparison of surface temperatures from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) used to retrieve near-surface soil moisture from SMOS measurements of brightness temperature, and surface temperatures in the South Fork

Stability of hemostatic proteins in canine fresh-frozen plasma thawed with a modified commercial microwave warmer or warm water bath.

PubMed

Pashmakova, Medora B; Barr, James W; Bishop, Micah A

2015-05-01

To compare stability of hemostatic proteins in canine fresh-frozen plasma (FFP) thawed with a modified commercial microwave warmer (MCM) or warm water bath (37°C; WWB) or at room temperature (22°C). Fresh-frozen plasma obtained from 8 canine donors of a commercial blood bank. A commercial microwave warmer was modified with a thermocouple to measure surface temperature of bags containing plasma. The MCM and a WWB were each used to concurrently thaw a 60-mL bag of plasma obtained from the same donor. Two 3-mL control aliquots of FFP from each donor were thawed to room temperature without use of a heating device. Concentrations of hemostatic proteins, albumin, and D-dimers; prothrombin time (PT); and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) were determined for all samples. Significant decreases in concentrations of factors II, IX, X, XI, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, antithrombin, protein C, and albumin and significant increases in PT and aPTT were detected for plasma thawed with the MCM, compared with results for samples thawed with the WWB. Concentrations of factors VII, VIII, and XII were not significantly different between plasma thawed with the MCM and WWB. Concentrations of D-dimers were above the reference range for all thawed samples regardless of thawing method. No significant differences in factor concentrations were detected between control and WWB-thawed samples. Significant differences in hemostatic protein concentrations and coagulation times were detected for plasma thawed with an MCM but not between control and WWB-thawed samples. Clinical importance of these changes should be investigated.

Vulnerability of stream community composition and function to projected thermal warming and hydrologic change across ecoregions in the western United States.

PubMed

Pyne, Matthew I; Poff, N LeRoy

2017-01-01

Shifts in biodiversity and ecological processes in stream ecosystems in response to rapid climate change will depend on how numerically and functionally dominant aquatic insect species respond to changes in stream temperature and hydrology. Across 253 minimally perturbed streams in eight ecoregions in the western USA, we modeled the distribution of 88 individual insect taxa in relation to existing combinations of maximum summer temperature, mean annual streamflow, and their interaction. We used a heat map approach along with downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections of warming and streamflow change to estimate site-specific extirpation likelihood for each taxon, allowing estimation of whole-community change in streams across these ecoregions. Conservative climate change projections indicate a 30-40% loss of taxa in warmer, drier ecoregions and 10-20% loss in cooler, wetter ecoregions where taxa are relatively buffered from projected warming and hydrologic change. Differential vulnerability of taxa with key functional foraging roles in processing basal resources suggests that climate change has the potential to modify stream trophic structure and function (e.g., alter rates of detrital decomposition and algal consumption), particularly in warmer and drier ecoregions. We show that streamflow change is equally as important as warming in projected risk to stream community composition and that the relative threat posed by these two fundamental drivers varies across ecoregions according to projected gradients of temperature and hydrologic change. Results also suggest that direct human modification of streams through actions such as water abstraction is likely to further exacerbate loss of taxa and ecosystem alteration, especially in drying climates. Management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on stream ecosystems or to proactively adapt to them will require regional calibration, due to geographic variation in insect sensitivity and in exposure to

Bill size variation in northern cardinals associated with anthropogenic drivers across North America.

PubMed

Miller, Colleen R; Latimer, Christopher E; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2018-05-01

Allen's rule predicts that homeotherms inhabiting cooler climates will have smaller appendages, while those inhabiting warmer climates will have larger appendages relative to body size. Birds' bills tend to be larger at lower latitudes, but few studies have tested whether modern climate change and urbanization affect bill size. Our study explored whether bill size in a wide-ranging bird would be larger in warmer, drier regions and increase with rising temperatures. Furthermore, we predicted that bill size would be larger in densely populated areas, due to urban heat island effects and the higher concentration of supplementary foods. Using measurements from 605 museum specimens, we explored the effects of climate and housing density on northern cardinal bill size over an 85-year period across the Linnaean subspecies' range. We quantified the geographic relationships between bill surface area, housing density, and minimum temperature using linear mixed effect models and geographically weighted regression. We then tested whether bill surface area changed due to housing density and temperature in three subregions (Chicago, IL., Washington, D.C., and Ithaca, NY). Across North America, cardinals occupying drier regions had larger bills, a pattern strongest in males. This relationship was mediated by temperature such that birds in warm, dry areas had larger bills than those in cool, dry areas. Over time, female cardinals' bill size increased with warming temperatures in Washington, D.C., and Ithaca. Bill size was smaller in developed areas of Chicago, but larger in Washington, D.C., while there was no pattern in Ithaca, NY. We found that climate and urbanization were strongly associated with bill size for a wide-ranging bird. These biogeographic relationships were characterized by sex-specific differences, varying relationships with housing density, and geographic variability. It is likely that anthropogenic pressures will continue to influence species, potentially

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California’s Central Valley

PubMed Central

Fleskes, Joseph P.

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Projected Impacts of Climate, Urbanization, Water Management, and Wetland Restoration on Waterbird Habitat in California's Central Valley.

PubMed

Matchett, Elliott L; Fleskes, Joseph P

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006-2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the "existing" landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Projected impacts of climate, urbanization, water management, and wetland restoration on waterbird habitat in California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2017-01-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the most important regions for wintering waterbirds in North America despite extensive anthropogenic landscape modification and decline of historical wetlands there. Like many other mediterranean-climate ecosystems across the globe, the Central Valley has been subject to a burgeoning human population and expansion and intensification of agricultural and urban development that have impacted wildlife habitats. Future effects of urban development, changes in water supply management, and precipitation and air temperature related to global climate change on area of waterbird habitat in the Central Valley are uncertain, yet potentially substantial. Therefore, we modeled area of waterbird habitats for 17 climate, urbanization, water supply management, and wetland restoration scenarios for years 2006–2099 using a water resources and scenario modeling framework. Planned wetland restoration largely compensated for adverse effects of climate, urbanization, and water supply management changes on habitat areas through 2065, but fell short thereafter for all except one scenario. Projected habitat reductions due to climate models were more frequent and greater than under the recent historical climate and their magnitude increased through time. After 2065, area of waterbird habitat in all scenarios that included severe warmer, drier climate was projected to be >15% less than in the “existing” landscape most years. The greatest reduction in waterbird habitat occurred in scenarios that combined warmer, drier climate and plausible water supply management options affecting priority and delivery of water available for waterbird habitats. This scenario modeling addresses the complexity and uncertainties in the Central Valley landscape, use and management of related water supplies, and climate to inform waterbird habitat conservation and other resource management planning. Results indicate that increased wetland restoration and additional

Reduced Microbial Resilience after a 17-Year Climate Gradient Transplant Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, V. L.; Fansler, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Liu, C.; Smith, J. L.; Bolton, H.

2012-12-01

In 1994, a reciprocal soil transplant experiment was initiated between two elevations (310 m, warmer and drier, and 844 m, cooler and wetter) on Rattlesnake Mountain in southeastern Washington, USA. The original experiment sought to detect whether the microbial and biochemical dynamics developed under cool, moist conditions would be destabilized under hot, dry conditions. In March 2012 we resampled the original transplanted soils, control cores transplanted in situ, and native soils from each elevation, to study longer-term changes in microbial community composition, soil C and N dynamics, and soil physical structure. These resampled cores were randomly assigned to climate-control chambers simulating the diurnal conditions at either the lower or upper sites. We monitored respiration over 100 days, and couple these data with biogeochemical analyses conducted at time-zero, and at the end of the experiment, to examine the consequences of long-term climate change on microbial C cycling under new environmental stresses. All soil types incubated respired more C while in the simulated hotter, drier climate compared with the cooler, moister condition, except for those that had been transplanted from the lower elevation to the upper elevation in 1994, which actually respired less when returned to this, their original climate. These soils also exhibited almost no temperature sensitivity (Q10=1.07, 13-33 °C). Soils incubated in the cooler, moister chamber had greater N-acetylglucosaminidase and β-glucosidase potentials, suggesting that while loss of C as carbon dioxide respiration is reduced under these conditions, internal cycling of C may be enhanced. Ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis was used to fingerprint the bacterial community of all of these soils to identify possible high-level shifts in community composition in the 0-5, 5-10, and deeper depths in these soils. These results suggest that climate change has significantly altered the C dynamics in these soils, and

Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures.

PubMed

Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla M

2018-06-07

Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT MAX ) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT MAX and egg-to-adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26-28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT MAX . Although small shifts in CT MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The timing of bud break in warming conditions: variation among seven sympatric conifer species from Eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Sergio; Isabel, Nathalie

2017-11-01

Phenological changes are expected with the ongoing global warming, which could create mismatches in the growth patterns among sympatric species or create synchrony with insect herbivores. In this study, we performed a comparative assessment of the timings of bud break among seven conifer species of Eastern Canada by evaluating seedling development in growth chambers under different temperatures (16, 20 and 24 °C). Bud break occurred earliest in Larix laricina, while Pinus strobus and Pinus resinosa had the latest. Warmer conditions advanced bud break, with the greatest effects being observed at the lower temperatures. Mixed models estimated that one additional degree of temperature produced advancements of 5.3 and 2.1 days at 16 and 20 °C, respectively. The hypothesis of an asynchronous change between species under warming was demonstrated only for the last phenological phases (split buds and exposed shoots), and principally in pines. Abies balsamea showed changes in bud break comparable with the other species analysed, rejecting the hypothesis of mismatches under warmer conditions. The observed non-linear responses of the timings of bud break to warming suggest that the major changes in bud phenology should be expected at the lowest temperatures.

Oxidation of dissolved iron under warmer, wetter conditions on Mars: Transitions to present-day arid environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, R. G.

1993-01-01

The copious deposits of ferric-iron assemblages littering the surface of bright regions of Mars indicate that efficient oxidative weathering reactions have taken place during the evolution of the planet. Because the kinetics of atmosphere-surface (gas-solid) reactions are considerably slower than chemical weathering reactions involving an aqueous medium, most of the oxidation products now present in the martian regolith probably formed when groundwater flowed near the surface. This paper examines how chemical weathering reactions were effected by climatic variations when warm, wet environments became arid on Mars. Analogies are drawn with hydrogeochemical and weathering environments on the Australian continent where present-day oxidation of iron is occurring in acidic ground water under arid conditions.

Long-term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, Stella M.; Munson, Seth M.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.; Bradford, John B.; Butterfield, Bradley J.

2018-01-01

Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long-term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon-juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration-focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation-adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70-year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.

Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marlon, Jennifer R.; Pederson, Neil; Nolan, Connor; Goring, Simon; Shuman, Bryan; Robertson, Ann; Booth, Robert K.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Berke, Melissa A.; Clifford, Michael; Cook, Edward; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Dietze, Michael C.; Hessl, Amy; Hubeny, J. Bradford; Jackson, Stephen T.; Marsicek, Jeremiah; McLachlan, Jason S.; Mock, Cary J.; Moore, David J. P.; Nichols, Jonathan M.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Schaefer, Kevin; Trouet, Valerie; Umbanhowar, Charles; Williams, John W.; Yu, Zicheng

2017-01-01

Many ecosystem processes that influence Earth system feedbacks, including vegetation growth, water and nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, are strongly influenced by multi-decadal to millennial-scale variations in climate that cannot be captured by instrumental climate observations. Paleoclimate information is therefore essential for understanding contemporary ecosystems and their potential trajectories under a variety of future climate conditions. With the exception of fossil pollen records, there are a limited number of northeastern US (NE US) paleoclimate archives that can provide constraints on its temperature and hydroclimate history. Moreover, the records that do exist have not been considered together. Tree-ring data indicate that the 20th century was one of the wettest of the past 500 years in the eastern US (Pederson et al., 2014), and lake-level records suggest it was one of the wettest in the Holocene (Newby et al., 2014); how such results compare with other available data remains unclear, however. Here we conduct a systematic review, assessment, and comparison of paleotemperature and paleohydrological proxies from the NE US for the last 3000 years. Regional temperature reconstructions are consistent with the long-term cooling trend (1000 BCE–1700 CE) evident in hemispheric-scale reconstructions, but hydroclimate reconstructions reveal new information, including an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. NE US paleo data suggest that conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly were warmer and drier than during the Little Ice Age, and drier than today. There is some evidence for an acceleration over the past century of a longer-term wetting trend in the NE US, and coupled with the abrupt shift from a cooling trend to a warming trend from increased greenhouse gases, may have wide-ranging implications for species distributions, ecosystem dynamics, and extreme weather events. More work is needed to gather paleoclimate

Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

2012-04-01

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2015-12-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2015-01-01

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

PubMed

Park, Gregory; Yaden, David Bryce; Schwartz, H Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

2016-01-01

Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook

PubMed Central

Park, Gregory; Schwartz, H. Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

2016-01-01

Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and—contrary to previous findings—slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale. PMID:27223607

Linking wood anatomy and xylogenesis allows pinpointing of climate and drought influences on growth of coexisting conifers in continental Mediterranean climate.

PubMed

Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco

2016-04-01

Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same

Collapse of the Maya: Could deforestation have contributed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Sever, Thomas L.; Saturno, William; Erickson, David J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

2010-06-01

The collapse of the Maya civilization during the ninth century A.D. is a major conundrum in the history of mankind. This civilization reached a spectacular peak but then almost completely collapsed in the space of a few decades. While numerous explanations have been put forth to explain this collapse, in recent years, drought has gained favor. This is because water resources were a key for the Maya, especially to ensure their survival during the lengthy dry season that occurs where they lived. Natural drought is a known, recurring feature of this region, as evidenced by observational data, reconstructions of past times, and global climate model output. Results from simulations with a regional climate model demonstrate that deforestation by the Maya also likely induced warmer, drier, drought-like conditions. It is therefore hypothesized that the drought conditions devastating the Maya resulted from a combination of natural variability and human activities. Neither the natural drought or the human-induced effects alone were sufficient to cause the collapse, but the combination created a situation the Maya could not recover from. These results may have sobering implications for the present and future state of climate and water resources in Mesoamerica as ongoing massive deforestation is again occurring.

Meteorological data for selected sites along the Colorado River Corridor, Arizona, 2011-13

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caster, Joshua J.; Dealy, Timothy P.; Andrews, Timothy; Fairley, Helen C.; East, Amy E.; Sankey, Joel B.

2014-01-01

This report presents data from 14 automated weather stations collected as part of an ongoing monitoring program within the Grand Canyon National Park and Glen Canyon Recreation Area along the Colorado River Corridor in Arizona. Weather data presented in this document include precipitation, wind speed, maximum wind gusts, wind direction, barometric pressure, relative humidity, and air temperature collected by the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center at 4-minute intervals between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013, using automated weather stations consisting of a data logger and a weather transmitter equipped with a piezoelectric sensor, ultrasonic transducers, and capacitive thermal and pressure sensors. Data collection was discontinuous because of station additions, station removals, changes in permits, and equipment failure. A large volume of data was collected for each station. These data are part of a larger research effort focused on physical processes affecting landscapes and archaeological-site stability in the Colorado River Corridor—both natural processes (including meteorological events) and those related to the Glen Canyon Dam operations. Meteorological conditions during the study interval were warmer and drier than is typical, due to ongoing drought conditions during the time period studied. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation was primarily in a neutral state during the reporting period.

Cavity types and microclimate: implications for ecological, evolutionary, and conservation studies.

PubMed

Amat-Valero, M; Calero-Torralbo, M A; Václav, R; Valera, F

2014-11-01

The abiotic conditions of the immediate environment of organisms are key factors for a better understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet, information in this regard is biased towards some habitat types, landscapes, and organisms. Here, we present a 2-year comparative study of the microclimatic properties (temperature, relative humidity, and their fluctuation) of three cavity types (nest boxes, cavities in bridges, and burrows in sandy cliffs) in an arid environment. We found marked and consistent months-long differences in microclimate among the three cavity types. Nest boxes were colder than the other cavity types, with temperature oscillations being an order of magnitude higher than in other cavity types. In contrast, microclimate was very stable in burrows and cavities in bridges, the former being generally warmer and drier than the latter. We also discuss the biological implications of microclimatic conditions and its variation in different cavity types by presenting two case studies, namely the temperature-humidity index and water vapor pressure during the hatching period of an endotherm and the chilling period during the diapause of an ectotherm ectoparasite. We stress the need for comparative studies of the same organisms subjected to different microclimates given the important ecological, evolutionary, and conservation implications.

Effects of soil temperature and depth to ground water on first-year growth of a dryland riparian phreatophyte, Glycyrrhiza lepidota (American licorice)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, Douglas C.; Nelson, S. Mark

2014-01-01

We investigated the effects of soil temperature and depth to ground water on first-year growth of a facultative floodplain phreatophyte, Glycyrrhiza lepidota, in a 2-×-2 factorial greenhouse experiment. We grew plants in mesocosms subirrigated with water low in dissolved oxygen, mimicking natural systems, and set depth of ground water at 63 or 100 cm and soil temperature at cold (ambient) or warm (≤2.7°C above ambient). We hypothesized the moister (63 cm) and warmer soil would be most favorable and predicted faster growth of shoots and roots and greater nitrogen-fixation (thus, less uptake of mineral nitrogen) under those conditions. Growth in height was significantly faster in the moister treatment but was not affected by soil temperature. Final biomass of shoots and of roots, total biomass of plants, and root:shoot ratio indicated a significant effect only from depth of ground water. Final levels of soil mineral-nitrogen were as predicted, with level of nitrate in the moister treatment more than twice that in the drier treatment. No effect from soil temperature on level of soil-mineral nitrogen was detected. Our results suggest that establishment of G. lepidotarequires strict conditions of soil moisture, which may explain the patchy distribution of the species along southwestern dryland rivers.

The collapse of the Maya: Effects of natural and human-induced drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2010-02-01

The collapse of the Maya civilization during the ninth century A.D. is a major conundrum in the history of mankind. This civilization reached a spectacular peak but then almost completely collapsed in the space of a few decades. While numerous explanations have been put forth to explain this collapse, in recent years, drought has gained favor. This is because water resources were a key for the Maya, especially to ensure their survival during the lengthy dry season that occurs where they lived. Natural drought is a known, recurring feature of this region, as evidenced by observational data, reconstructions of pastmore » times, and global climate model output. Results from simulations with a regional climate model demonstrate that deforestation by the Maya also likely induced warmer, drier, drought-like conditions. It is therefore hypothesized that the drought conditions devastating the Maya resulted from a combination of natural variability and human activities. Neither the natural drought or the human-induced effects alone were sufficient to cause the collapse, but the combination created a situation the Maya could not recover from. These results may have sobering implications for the present and future state of climate and water resources in Mesoamerica as ongoing massive deforestation is again occurring.« less

Climate change and the Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients

PubMed Central

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages. PMID:26091266

The Importance of Biotic vs. Abiotic Drivers of Local Plant Community Composition Along Regional Bioclimatic Gradients.

PubMed

Klanderud, Kari; Vandvik, Vigdis; Goldberg, Deborah

2015-01-01

We assessed if the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors for plant community composition differs along environmental gradients and between functional groups, and asked which implications this may have in a warmer and wetter future. The study location is a unique grid of sites spanning regional-scale temperature and precipitation gradients in boreal and alpine grasslands in southern Norway. Within each site we sampled vegetation and associated biotic and abiotic factors, and combined broad- and fine-scale ordination analyses to assess the relative explanatory power of these factors for species composition. Although the community responses to biotic and abiotic factors did not consistently change as predicted along the bioclimatic gradients, abiotic variables tended to explain a larger proportion of the variation in species composition towards colder sites, whereas biotic variables explained more towards warmer sites, supporting the stress gradient hypothesis. Significant interactions with precipitation suggest that biotic variables explained more towards wetter climates in the sub alpine and boreal sites, but more towards drier climates in the colder alpine. Thus, we predict that biotic interactions may become more important in alpine and boreal grasslands in a warmer future, although more winter precipitation may counteract this trend in oceanic alpine climates. Our results show that both local and regional scales analyses are needed to disentangle the local vegetation-environment relationships and their regional-scale drivers, and biotic interactions and precipitation must be included when predicting future species assemblages.

Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

2010-01-01

We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Does oxygen exposure time control the extent of organic matter decomposition in peatlands?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philben, Michael; Kaiser, Karl; Benner, Ronald

2014-05-01

The extent of peat decomposition was investigated in four cores collected along a latitudinal gradient from 56°N to 66°N in the West Siberian Lowland. The acid:aldehyde ratios of lignin phenols were significantly higher in the two northern cores compared with the two southern cores, indicating peats at the northern sites were more highly decomposed. Yields of hydroxyproline, an amino acid found in plant structural glycoproteins, were also significantly higher in northern cores compared with southern cores. Hydroxyproline-rich glycoproteins are not synthesized by microbes and are generally less reactive than bulk plant carbon, so elevated yields indicated that northern cores were more extensively decomposed than the southern cores. The southern cores experienced warmer temperatures, but were less decomposed, indicating that temperature was not the primary control of peat decomposition. The plant community oscillated between Sphagnum and vascular plant dominance in the southern cores, but vegetation type did not appear to affect the extent of decomposition. Oxygen exposure time appeared to be the strongest control of the extent of peat decomposition. The northern cores had lower accumulation rates and drier conditions, so these peats were exposed to oxic conditions for a longer time before burial in the catotelm, where anoxic conditions prevail and rates of decomposition are generally lower by an order of magnitude.

Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

2017-12-01

n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios

Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

2018-02-01

The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

Forests growing under dry conditions have higher hydrological resilience to drought than do more humid forests.

PubMed

Helman, David; Lensky, Itamar M; Yakir, Dan; Osem, Yagil

2017-07-01

More frequent and intense droughts are projected during the next century, potentially changing the hydrological balances in many forested catchments. Although the impacts of droughts on forest functionality have been vastly studied, little attention has been given to studying the effect of droughts on forest hydrology. Here, we use the Budyko framework and two recently introduced Budyko metrics (deviation and elasticity) to study the changes in the water yields (rainfall minus evapotranspiration) of forested catchments following a climatic drought (2006-2010) in pine forests distributed along a rainfall gradient (P = 280-820 mm yr -1 ) in the Eastern Mediterranean (aridity factor = 0.17-0.56). We use a satellite-based model and meteorological information to calculate the Budyko metrics. The relative water yield ranged from 48% to 8% (from the rainfall) in humid to dry forests and was mainly associated with rainfall amount (increasing with increased rainfall amount) and bedrock type (higher on hard bedrocks). Forest elasticity was larger in forests growing under drier conditions, implying that drier forests have more predictable responses to drought, according to the Budyko framework, compared to forests growing under more humid conditions. In this context, younger forests were shown more elastic than older forests. Dynamic deviation, which is defined as the water yield departure from the Budyko curve, was positive in all forests (i.e., less-than-expected water yields according to Budyko's curve), increasing with drought severity, suggesting lower hydrological resistance to drought in forests suffering from larger rainfall reductions. However, the dynamic deviation significantly decreased in forests that experienced relatively cooler conditions during the drought period. Our results suggest that forests growing under permanent dry conditions might develop a range of hydrological and eco-physiological adjustments to drought leading to higher hydrological

Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and its application to habitat sustainability for endangered species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Thorne, Karen M.; Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Callaway, John C.; Takekawa, John Y.

2014-01-01

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

Holocene seasonal variability inferred from multiple proxy records from Crevice Lake, Yellowstone National Park, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, Cathy; Dean, Walter E.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Stevens, Lora R.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Power, Mitchell J.; Rosenbaum, Joseph R.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Bracht-Flyr, Brandi B.

2012-01-01

A 9400-yr-old record from Crevice Lake, a semi-closed alkaline lake in northern Yellowstone National Park, was analyzed for pollen, charcoal, geochemistry, mineralogy, diatoms, and stable isotopes to develop a nuanced understanding of Holocene environmental history in a region of northern Rocky Mountains that receives both summer and winter precipitation. The limited surface area, conical bathymetry, and deep water (> 31 m) of Crevice Lake create oxygen-deficient conditions in the hypolimnion and preserve annually laminated sediment (varves) for much of the record. Pollen data indicate that the watershed supported a closed Pinus-dominated forest and low fire frequency prior to 8200 cal yr BP, followed by open parkland until 2600 cal yr BP, and open mixed-conifer forest thereafter. Fire activity shifted from infrequent stand-replacing fires initially to frequent surface fires in the middle Holocene and stand-replacing events in recent centuries. Low values of δ18O suggest high winter precipitation in the early Holocene, followed by steadily drier conditions after 8500 cal yr BP. Carbonate-rich sediments before 5000 cal yr BP imply warmer summer conditions than after 5000 cal yr BP. High values of molybdenum (Mo), uranium (U), and sulfur (S) indicate anoxic bottom-waters before 8000 cal yr BP, between 4400 and 3900 cal yr BP, and after 2400 cal yr BP. The diatom record indicates extensive water-column mixing in spring and early summer through much of the Holocene, but a period between 2200 and 800 cal yr BP had strong summer stratification, phosphate limitation, and oxygen-deficient bottom waters. Together, the proxy data suggest wet winters, protracted springs, and warm effectively wet summers in the early Holocene and less snowpack, cool springs, warm dry summers in the middle Holocene. In the late Holocene, the region and lake experienced extreme changes in winter, spring, and summer conditions, with particularly short springs and dry summers and winters during

Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Xiao, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Schultz, Natalie; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Lei

2018-06-01

Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris.

PubMed

Spindelböck, Joachim P; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-09-01

Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to competitive performance and better exploitation of the

Climate Controls on Carbon Sequestration in Eastern North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peteet, D. M.; Renik, B.; Maenza-Gmeich, T.; Kurdyla, D.; Guilderson, T.

2002-01-01

Mid-latitude forest ecosystems have been proposed as a "missing sink" today. The role of soils (including wetlands) in this proposed sink is a very important unknown. In order to make estimates of future climate change effects on carbon storage, we can examine past wetland carbon sequestration. How did past climate change affect net wetland carbon storage? We present long-term data from existing wetland sites used for paleoclimate reconstruction to assess the net carbon storage in wetland over the last 15000 years. During times of colder and wetter climate, many mid-latitude sites show increases in carbon storage, while past warmer, drier climates produced decreases in storage. Comparison among bog, fen, swamp, and tidal marsh are demonstrated for the Hudson Valley region.

Riparian plant composition along hydrologic gradients in a dryland river basin and implications for a warming climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2017-01-01

Droughts in dryland regions on all continents are expected to increase in severity and duration under future climate projections. In dryland regions, it is likely that minimum streamflow will decrease with some perennial streams shifting to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in precipitation and runoff and increases in temperature. Decreasing base flow and shifting flow regimes from perennial to intermittent could have significant implications for stream-dependent biota, including riparian vegetation. In this study, we asked, how do riparian plant communities vary along wet-to-dry hydrologic gradients on small (first–third order) streams? We collected data on geomorphic, hydrologic, and plant community characteristics on 54 stream sites ranging in hydrology from intermittent to perennial flow across the Upper Colorado River Basin (284,898 km2). We found that plant communities varied along hydrologic gradients from high to low elevation between streams, and perennial to intermittent flow. We identified indicator species associated with different hydrologic conditions and suggest how plant communities may shift under warmer, drier conditions. Our results indicate that species richness and cover of total, perennial, wetland, and native plant groups will decrease while annual plants will increase under drying conditions. Understanding how plant communities respond to regional drivers such as hydroclimate requires broad-scale approaches such as sampling across whole river basins. With increasingly arid conditions in many regions of the globe, understanding plant community shifts is key to understanding the future of riparian ecosystems.

Nitrogen partitioning in oak leaves depends on species, provenance, climate conditions and soil type.

PubMed

Hu, B; Simon, J; Kuster, T M; Arend, M; Siegwolf, R; Rennenberg, H

2013-01-01

Climate-tolerant tree species and/or provenances have to be selected to ensure the high productivity of managed forests in Central Europe under the prognosticated climate changes. For this purpose, we studied the responses of saplings from three oak species (i.e. Quercus robur, Q. petraea and Q. pubescens) and provenances of different climatic origin (i.e. low or high rainfall, low or high temperature habitats) with regard to leaf nitrogen (N) composition as a measure of N nutrition. Saplings were grown in model ecosystems on either calcareous or acidic soil and subjected to one of four treatments (control, drought, air warming or a combination of drought and air warming). Across species, oak N metabolism responded to the influence of drought and/or air warming with an increase in leaf amino acid N concentration at the expense of structural N. Moreover, provenances or species from drier habitats were more tolerant to the climate conditions applied, as indicated by an increase in amino acid N (comparing species) or soluble protein N (comparing provenances within a species). Furthermore, amino acid N concentrations of oak leaves were significantly higher on calcareous compared to acidic soil. From these results, it can be concluded that seeds from provenances or species originating from drier habitats and - if available - from calcareous soil types may provide a superior seed source for future forest establishment. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Temperature histories of commercial flights at severe conditions from GASP data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasperson, W. H.; Nastrom, G. D.

1983-01-01

The thermal environment of commercial aircraft from a data set gathered during the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is studied. The data set covers a four-year period of measurements. The report presents plots of airplane location and speed and atmospheric temperature as functions of elapsed time for 35 extreme-condition flights, selected by minimum values of several temperature parameters. One of these parameters, the severity factor, is an approximation of the in-flight wing-tank temperature. Representative low-severity-factor flight histories may be useful for actual temperature-profile inputs to design and research studies. Comparison of the GASP atmospheric temperatures to interpolated temperatures from National Meteorological Center and Global Weather Central analysis fields shows that the analysis temperatures are slightly biased toward warmer than actual temperatures, particularly over oceans and at extreme conditions.

Climate influences the leaf area/sapwood area ratio in Scots pine.

PubMed

Mencuccini, M; Grace, J

1995-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that the leaf area/sapwood area ratio in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is influenced by site differences in water vapor pressure deficit of the air (D). Two stands of the same provenance were selected, one in western Scotland and one in eastern England, so that effects resulting from age, genetic variability, density and fertility were minimized. Compared with the Scots pine trees at the cooler and wetter site in Scotland, the trees at the warmer and drier site in England produced less leaf area per unit of conducting sapwood area both at a stem height of 1.3 m and at the base of the live crown, whereas stem permeability was similar at both sites. Also, trees at the drier site had less leaf area per unit branch cross-sectional area at the branch base than trees at the wetter site. For each site, the average values for leaf area, sapwood area and permeability were used, together with values of transpiration rates at different D, to calculate average stem water potential gradients. Changes in the leaf area/sapwood area ratio acted to maintain a similar water potential gradient in the stems of trees at both sites despite climatic differences between the sites.

Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land cover and surface energy budget changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wichansky, P.S.; Steyaert, L.T.; Walko, R.L.; Waever, C.P.

2008-01-01

The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover data sets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dew point temperatures, rainfall, and the individual components of the surface energy budget to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6??C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0??C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions, however, were slightly cooler. Dew point temperatures decreased by 0.3-0.6??C, suggesting drier, less humid near-surface air for the present-day landscape. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Millennial-scale variations in western Sierra Nevada precipitation during the last glacial cycle MIS 4/3 transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oster, Jessica L.; Montañez, Isabel P.; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Sharp, Warren D.; Stock, Greg M.; Spero, Howard J.; Tinsley, John; Zachos, James C.

2014-07-01

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles had far-reaching effects on Northern Hemisphere and tropical climate systems during the last glacial period, yet the climatic response to D-O cycles in western North America is controversial, especially prior to 55 ka. We document changes in precipitation along the western slope of the central Sierra Nevada during early Marine Oxygen Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 4 (55-67 ka) from a U-series dated speleothem record from McLean's Cave. The timing of our multi-proxy geochemical dataset is coeval with D-O interstadials (15-18) and stadials, including Heinrich Event 6. The McLean's Cave stalagmite indicates warmer and drier conditions during Greenland interstadials (GISs 15-18), signified by elevated δ18O, δ13C, reflectance, and trace element concentrations, and less radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr. Our record extends evidence of a strong linkage between high-latitude warming and reduced precipitation in western North America to early MIS 3 and MIS 4. This record shows that the linkage persists in diverse global climate states, and documents the nature of the climatic response in central California to Heinrich Event 6.

Post-Wildfire Peak Discharge Prediction Methods in Northern New Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ronstadt, Jackie A.

Recent changes in climate have resulted in a decrease in precipitation and snowpack amounts and increased temperatures in the western United States. As the climate warms, there are also changes to runoff amounts and water availability. Drier and warmer conditions coupled with forest management practices have led to an increase in the frequency and size of forest fires. The 2000 Cerro Grande fire in Los Alamos, New Mexico burned over 43,000 acres and 200 structures. Eleven years later, the Las Conchas fire burned over 156,000 acres and 100 structures, including areas previously burned in 2000, and was considered the largestmore » fire in New Mexico’s history. Both fires burned ponderosa, juniper, piñon and mixed conifer forests, resulting in dramatic decreases in vegetation, changes to surface soils, and alterations to the hydrologic cycle (decreased evapotranspiration, decreased infiltration, increased runoff volume and peak discharge, and decreased time to peak discharge) in surrounding watersheds. The frequency of large, intense “mega-fires” are predicted to increase, thus there is a potential for more post-fire flood damage and more surface water resources to be altered due to water quality issues.« less

Modeling the emission, transport and deposition of contaminated dust from a mine tailing site.

PubMed

Stovern, Michael; Betterton, Eric A; Sáez, A Eduardo; Villar, Omar Ignacio Felix; Rine, Kyle P; Russell, Mackenzie R; King, Matt

2014-01-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of contaminants from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are significantly contaminated with lead and arsenic with an average soil concentration of 1616 and 1420 ppm, respectively. Similar levels of these contaminants have also been measured in soil samples taken from the area surrounding the mine tailings. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we have been able to model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes a distributed Eulerian model to simulate fine aerosol transport and a Lagrangian approach to model fate and transport of larger particles. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P.; Russell, MacKenzie R.; Jones, Robert M.; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A.; Sáez, A. Eduardo

2014-09-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model.

PubMed

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P; Russell, MacKenzie R; Jones, Robert M; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A; Sáez, A Eduardo

2014-09-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition.

Detecting changes in surface moisture and water table position with spectral changes in surface vegetation in northern peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meingast, Karl M.

Due to warmer and drier conditions, wildland fire has been increasing in extent into peatland ecosystems during recent decades. As such, there is an increasing need for broadly applicable tools to detect surface peat moisture, in order to ascertain the susceptibility of peat burning, and the vulnerability of deep peat consumption in the event of a wildfire. In this thesis, a field portable spectroradiometer was used to measure surface reflectance of two Sphagnum moss dominated peatlands. Relationships were developed correlating spectral indices to surface moisture as well as water table position. Spectral convolutions were also applied to the high resolution spectra to represent spectral sensitivity of earth observing sensors. Band ratios previously used to monitor surface moisture with these sensors were assessed. Strong relationships to surface moisture and water table position are evident for both the narrowband indices as well as broadened indices. This study also found a dependence of certain spectral relationships on changes in vegetation cover by leveraging an experimental vegetation manipulation. Results indicate broadened indices employing the 1450-1650 nm region may be less stable under changing vegetation cover than those located in the 1200 nm region.

Simulation of windblown dust transport from a mine tailings impoundment using a computational fluid dynamics model

PubMed Central

Stovern, Michael; Felix, Omar; Csavina, Janae; Rine, Kyle P.; Russell, MacKenzie R.; Jones, Robert M.; King, Matt; Betterton, Eric A.; Sáez, A. Eduardo

2014-01-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of dust and aerosol from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. Using a computational fluid dynamics model, we model dust transport from the mine tailings to the surrounding region. The model includes gaseous plume dispersion to simulate the transport of the fine aerosols, while individual particle transport is used to track the trajectories of larger particles and to monitor their deposition locations. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations, both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations. Results show that local topography and wind velocity profiles are the major factors that control deposition. PMID:25621085

Impact of Entomophaga maimaiga (Entomophthorales: Entomophthoraceae) on outbreak gypsy moth populations (Lepidoptera: Erebidae): the role of weather.

PubMed

Reilly, James R; Hajek, Ann E; Liebhold, Andrew M; Plymale, Ruth

2014-06-01

The fungal pathogen Entomophaga maimaiga Humber, Shimazu, and Soper is prevalent in gypsy moth [Lymantria dispar (L.)] populations throughout North America. To understand how weather-related variables influence gypsy moth-E. maimaiga interactions in the field, we measured fungal infection rates at 12 sites in central Pennsylvania over 3 yr, concurrently measuring rainfall, soil moisture, humidity, and temperature. Fungal mortality was assessed using both field-collected larvae and laboratory-reared larvae caged on the forest floor. We found significant positive effects of moisture-related variables (rainfall, soil moisture, and relative humidity) on mortality due to fungal infection in both data sets, and significant negative effects of temperature on the mortality of field-collected larvae. Lack of a clear temperature relationship with the mortality of caged larvae may be attributable to differential initiation of infection by resting spores and conidia or to microclimate effects. These relationships may be helpful in understanding how gypsy moth dynamics vary across space and time, and in forecasting how the gypsy moth and fungus will interact as they move into warmer or drier areas, or new weather conditions occur due to climate change.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

Benefits of increasing transpiration efficiency in wheat under elevated CO2 for rainfed regions.

PubMed

Christy, Brendan; Tausz-Posch, Sabine; Tausz, Michael; Richards, Richard; Rebetzke, Greg; Condon, Anthony; McLean, Terry; Fitzgerald, Glenn; Bourgault, Maryse; O'Leary, Garry

2018-05-01

Higher transpiration efficiency (TE) has been proposed as a mechanism to increase crop yields in dry environments where water availability usually limits yield. The application of a coupled radiation and TE simulation model shows wheat yield advantage of a high-TE cultivar (cv. Drysdale) over its almost identical low-TE parent line (Hartog), from about -7 to 558 kg/ha (mean 187 kg/ha) over the rainfed cropping region in Australia (221-1,351 mm annual rainfall), under the present-day climate. The smallest absolute yield response occurred in the more extreme drier and wetter areas of the wheat belt. However, under elevated CO 2 conditions, the response of Drysdale was much greater overall, ranging from 51 to 886 kg/ha (mean 284 kg/ha) with the greatest response in the higher rainfall areas. Changes in simulated TE under elevated CO 2 conditions are seen across Australia with notable increased areas of higher TE under a drier climate in Western Australia, Queensland and parts of New South Wales and Victoria. This improved efficiency is subtly deceptive, with highest yields not necessarily directly correlated with highest TE. Nevertheless, the advantage of Drysdale over Hartog is clear with the benefit of the trait advantage attributed to TE ranging from 102% to 118% (mean 109%). The potential annual cost-benefits of this increased genetic TE trait across the wheat growing areas of Australia (5 year average of area planted to wheat) totaled AUD 631 MIL (5-year average wheat price of AUD/260 t) with an average of 187 kg/ha under the present climate. The benefit to an individual farmer will depend on location but elevated CO 2 raises this nation-wide benefit to AUD 796 MIL in a 2°C warmer climate, slightly lower (AUD 715 MIL) if rainfall is also reduced by 20%. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Conditional cold avoidance drives between-population variation in germination behaviour in Calluna vulgaris

PubMed Central

Spindelböck, Joachim P.; Cook, Zoë; Daws, Matthew I.; Heegaard, Einar; Måren, Inger E.; Vandvik, Vigdis

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Across their range, widely distributed species are exposed to a variety of climatic and other environmental conditions, and accordingly may display variation in life history strategies. For seed germination in cold climates, two contrasting responses to variation in winter temperature have been documented: first, an increased ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold tolerance) as winter temperatures decrease, and secondly a reduced ability to germinate at low temperatures (cold avoidance) that concentrates germination towards the warmer parts of the season. Methods Germination responses were tested for Calluna vulgaris, the dominant species of European heathlands, from ten populations collected along broad-scale bioclimatic gradients (latitude, altitude) in Norway, covering a substantial fraction of the species' climatic range. Incubation treatments varied from 10 to 25 °C, and germination performance across populations was analysed in relation to temperature conditions at the seed collection locations. Key Results Seeds from all populations germinated rapidly and to high final percentages under the warmer incubation temperatures. Under low incubation temperatures, cold-climate populations had significantly lower germination rates and percentages than warm-climate populations. While germination rates and percentages also increased with seed mass, seed mass did not vary along the climatic gradients, and therefore did not explain the variation in germination responses. Conclusions Variation in germination responses among Calluna populations was consistent with increased temperature requirements for germination towards colder climates, indicating a cold-avoidance germination strategy conditional on the temperature at the seeds' origin. Along a gradient of increasing temperatures this suggests a shift in selection pressures on germination from climatic adversity (i.e. low temperatures and potential frost risk in early or late season) to

Environmental conditions synchronize waterbird mortality events in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prince, Karine; Chipault, Jennifer G.; White, C. LeAnn; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2018-01-01

Since the 1960s, periodic outbreaks of avian botulism type E have contributed to large-scale die-offs of thousands of waterbirds throughout the Great Lakes of the United States. In recent years, these events have become more common and widespread. Occurring during the summer and autumn months, the prevalence of these die-offs varies across years and is often associated with years of warmer lake temperatures and lower water levels. Little information exists on how environmental conditions mediate the spatial and temporal characteristics of mortality events.In 2010, a citizen science programme, Avian Monitoring for Botulism Lakeshore Events (AMBLE), was launched to enhance surveillance efforts and detect the appearance of beached waterbird carcasses associated with avian botulism type E outbreaks in northern Lake Michigan. Using these data, our goal was to quantify the within-year characteristics of mortality events for multiple species, and to test whether the synchrony of these events corresponded to fluctuations in two environmental factors suspected to be important in the spread of avian botulism: water temperature and the prevalence of green macroalgae.During two separate events of mass waterbird mortality, we found that the detection of bird carcasses was spatially synchronized at scales of c. 40 km. Notably, the extent of this spatial synchrony in avian mortality matched that of fluctuations in lake surface water temperatures and the prevalence of green macroalgae.Synthesis and applications. Our findings are suggestive of a synchronizing effect where warmer lake temperatures and the appearance of macroalgae mediate the characteristics of avian mortality. In future years, rising lake temperatures and a higher propensity of algal masses could lead to increases in the magnitude and synchronization of avian mortality due to botulism. We advocate that citizen-based monitoring efforts are critical for identifying the potential environmental conditions associated

Nitrogenase activity by biological soil crusts in cold sagebrush steppe ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwabedissen, Stacy G.; Lohse, Kathleen A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Aho, Ken A.; Magnuson, Timothy S.

2017-01-01

In drylands worldwide, biological soil crusts (BSC) form a thin photosynthetic cover across landscapes, and provide vital benefits in terms of stabilizing soil and fixing nitrogen (N) and carbon (C). Numerous studies have examined the effects of climate and disturbance on BSC functions; however, few have characterized these responses in rolling BSCs typical of northern ecosystems in the Intermountain West, US. With temperature increases and shifts in precipitation projected, it is unclear how BSCs in this region will respond to climate change, and how the response could affect their capacity to perform key ecosystem functions, such as providing ‘new’ N through biological N2 fixation. To address this important knowledge gap, we examined nitrogenase activity (NA) associated with rolling BSCs along a climatic gradient in southwestern Idaho, US, and quantified how acetylene reduction rates changed as a function of climate, grazing (using exclosures), and shrub-canopy association. Results show that warmer, drier climates at lower elevations hosted greater cover of late successional BSC communities (e.g., mosses and lichens), and higher NA compared with colder, wetter climates at higher elevations. Highest NA (0.5–29.3 µmol C2H4 m−2 h−1) occurred during the early summer/spring, when water was more available than in late summer/autumn. Activity was strongly associated with soil characteristics including pH and ammonium concentrations suggesting these characteristics as potentially strong controls on NA in BSCs. The relationship between grazing and NA varied with elevation. Specifically, lower elevation sites had lower NA at grazed locations, whereas higher elevation sites had higher NA with grazing. At both low and high ends of the elevation gradient, shrub-canopy associated BSCs maintained two to three times higher NA compared to BSCs in the interspace among shrubs. Taken together, our findings indicate that the controls and rates of NA in BSCs vary

Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

2015-03-01

The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

Equatorially/globally conditioned meteorological analysis of heaviest monsoon rains over India during 23-28 July 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranade, Ashwini; Singh, Nityanand

2018-06-01

The heaviest monsoon rainstorm of the period 1951-2007 over India occurred during 23-28 July 2005, mostly the peninsula received rainfall, and each day the rainwater over the country was 40.0 bcm (billion cubic meter) or more, highest 98.4 bcm fell on 25 July 2005. Present premise of monsoon genesis is that it evolves in association with spreading and intensification of equatorial atmospheric condition over Afro-Eurasian landmass and adjoining Indian and Pacific Oceans during boreal summer. Robust natural criteria have been applied to demarcate monsoon and other global weather regimes (GWRs) at standard levels (1000‒100 hPa). Global atmospheric (1000‒100 hPa) thermal condition and monsoon and general circulations during 23-28 July 2005 have been compared with normal features of respective parameters. Over tropics-subtropics (45°S-45°N), troposphere (1000‒250 hPa) was warmer-thicker and pressure lower than normal and mixed conditions of positive/negative departures in temperature, height/thickness and pressure over northern and southern mid-high latitudes. Noticeable changes in 3D monsoon structure were: horizontally spread and eastward-southward shifted over western North Pacific and stretched further southeastward across equatorial Pacific; intense warm-low lower tropospheric confluence-convergence across Asia-Pacific with vertical depth extending beyond 400 hPa; and intense warm-high upper tropospheric anticyclonic circulation zonally stretched and divided into three interconnected cells. Outflows from anticyclonic cells over Tibetan plateau and western North Pacific were mostly directed westward/southwestward/southward. Troposphere was warmer-thicker and pressure higher over eastern part of both subpolars-polars and cooler-thinner and pressure lower over western part. During the period, a deep cyclonic circulation moved from Bay of Bengal through central India while near-stationary atmospheric condition prevailed across the globe.

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

2015-01-01

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn

2015-11-01

Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

Anthropogenic host plant expansion leads a nettle-feeding butterfly out of the forest: consequences for larval survival and developmental plasticity in adult morphology.

PubMed

Merckx, Thomas; Serruys, Mélanie; Van Dyck, Hans

2015-04-01

Recent anthropogenic eutrophication has meant that host plants of nettle-feeding insects became quasi-omnipresent in fertile regions of Western Europe. However, host plant resource quality - in terms of microclimate and nutritional value - may vary considerably between the 'original' forest habitat and 'recent' agricultural habitat. Here, we compared development in both environmental settings using a split-brood design, so as to explore to what extent larval survival and adult morphology in the nettle-feeding butterfly Aglais urticae are influenced by the anthropogenic environment. Nettles along field margins had higher C/N ratios and provided warmer microclimates to larvae. Larvae developed 20% faster and tended to improve their survival rates, on the agricultural land compared to woodland. Our split-brood approach indicated plastic responses within families, but also family effects in the phenotypic responses. Adult males and females had darker wing pigmentation in the drier and warmer agricultural environment, which contrasts with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Developmental plasticity in response to this microclimatically different and more variable habitat was associated with a broader phenotypic parameter space for the species. Both habitat expansion and developmental plasticity are likely contributors to the ecological and evolutionary success of these nettle-feeding insects in anthropogenic environments under high nitrogen load.

Anthropogenic host plant expansion leads a nettle-feeding butterfly out of the forest: consequences for larval survival and developmental plasticity in adult morphology

PubMed Central

Merckx, Thomas; Serruys, Mélanie; Van Dyck, Hans

2015-01-01

Recent anthropogenic eutrophication has meant that host plants of nettle-feeding insects became quasi-omnipresent in fertile regions of Western Europe. However, host plant resource quality – in terms of microclimate and nutritional value – may vary considerably between the ‘original’ forest habitat and ‘recent’ agricultural habitat. Here, we compared development in both environmental settings using a split-brood design, so as to explore to what extent larval survival and adult morphology in the nettle-feeding butterfly Aglais urticae are influenced by the anthropogenic environment. Nettles along field margins had higher C/N ratios and provided warmer microclimates to larvae. Larvae developed 20% faster and tended to improve their survival rates, on the agricultural land compared to woodland. Our split-brood approach indicated plastic responses within families, but also family effects in the phenotypic responses. Adult males and females had darker wing pigmentation in the drier and warmer agricultural environment, which contrasts with the thermal melanism hypothesis. Developmental plasticity in response to this microclimatically different and more variable habitat was associated with a broader phenotypic parameter space for the species. Both habitat expansion and developmental plasticity are likely contributors to the ecological and evolutionary success of these nettle-feeding insects in anthropogenic environments under high nitrogen load. PMID:25926881

[Spatiotemporal dynamics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau with responses to climate change].

PubMed

Song, Chun-qiao; You, Song-cai; Ke, Ling-hong; Liu, Gao-huan; Zhong, Xin-ke

2011-08-01

By using the 2001-2008 MOMS land cover products (MCDl2Ql) and based on the modified classification scheme embodied the characteristics of land cover in northern Tibetan Plateau, the annual land cover type maps of the Plateau were drawn, with the dynamic changes of each land cover type analyzed by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrix, and landscape pattern indices. In 2001-2008, due to the acceleration of global climate warming, the areas of glacier and snow-covered land in the Plateau decreased rapidly, and the melted snow water gathered into low-lying valley or basin, making the lake level raised and the lake area enlarged. Some permanent wetlands were formed because of partially submersed grassland. The vegetation cover did not show any evident meliorated or degraded trend. From 2001 to 2004, as the climate became warmer and wetter, the spatial distribution of desert began to shrink, and the proportions of sparse grassland and grassland increased. From 2006 to 2007, due to the warmer and drier climate, the desert bare land increased, and the sparse grassland decreased. From 2001 to 2008, both the landscape fragmentation degree and the land cover heterogeneity decreased, and the differences in the proportions of all land cover types somewhat enlarged.

Douglas-Fir Seedlings Exhibit Metabolic Responses to Increased Temperature and Atmospheric Drought

PubMed Central

Jansen, Kirstin; Du, Baoguo; Kayler, Zachary; Siegwolf, Rolf; Ensminger, Ingo; Rennenberg, Heinz; Kammerer, Bernd; Jaeger, Carsten; Schaub, Marcus; Kreuzwieser, Jürgen; Gessler, Arthur

2014-01-01

In the future, periods of strongly increased temperature in concert with drought (heat waves) will have potentially detrimental effects on trees and forests in Central Europe. Norway spruce might be at risk in the future climate of Central Europe. However, Douglas-fir is often discussed as an alternative for the drought and heat sensitive Norway spruce, because some provenances are considered to be well adapted to drier and warmer conditions. In this study, we identified the physiological and growth responses of seedlings from two different Douglas-fir provenances to increased temperature and atmospheric drought during a period of 92 days. We analysed (i) plant biomass, (ii) carbon stable isotope composition as an indicator for time integrated intrinsic water use efficiency, (iii) apparent respiratory carbon isotope fractionation as well as (iv) the profile of polar low molecular metabolites. Plant biomass was only slightly affected by increased temperatures and atmospheric drought but the more negative apparent respiratory fractionation indicated a temperature-dependent decrease in the commitment of substrate to the tricarboxylic acid cycle. The metabolite profile revealed that the simulated heat wave induced a switch in stress protecting compounds from proline to polyols. We conclude that metabolic acclimation successfully contributes to maintain functioning and physiological activity in seedlings of both Douglas-fir provenances under conditions that are expected during heat waves (i.e. elevated temperatures and atmospheric drought). Douglas-fir might be a potentially important tree species for forestry in Central Europe under changing climatic conditions. PMID:25436455

Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Durack, Paul J; Wijffels, Susan E; Matear, Richard J

2012-04-27

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

Was the Eemian warmer than the Holocene? Indications from high- and low-altitude speleothems in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, V. E.; Borsato, A.; Frisia, S.; Spoetl, C.; Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.; Hellstrom, J.; Eggins, S. M.

2012-12-01

The Eemian was the most recent period, prior to the Holocene, where conditions were similar to the present. This permits its use for comparison with recent times but without anthropogenic influence. However, the natural similarity between these two periods must be questioned, and therefore, the suitability of using Eemian climate as a reference for modern times. Present-day speleothem growth in the high altitude Cesere Battisti (CB) cave (1880 m a.s.l.) is scarce and limited to only a few, thin calcite crusts and moonmilk deposits, despite ample time for soil development to occur. By contrast, during the Eemian, flowstone deposits and large stalagmites filled parts of the cave. Dating indicates that these deposits commenced growth shortly after deglaciation, with the growth phase corresponding well with the step to negative δ18O values seen at Soreq Cave (Bar-Matthews et al., 2003, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 67, 3181-3199). δ13C values of Eemian speleothems are more negative than present-day precipitates indicating that either the Eemian soil was better developed or there was less in-cave fractionation, both in agreement with favorable speleothem growth conditions and corresponding with greater mass of calcite during the Eemian. The situation is similar at the lower altitude (370 m a.s.l.) Bigonda Cave (BG) that presently hosts stalagmites and stalactites in parts of the cave, but during the Eemian thick flowstones covered large sections of cave passage. High resolution stable isotope and trace element data on two corresponding flowstones from BG cave indicate that flowstone growth commenced rapidly, even during the deglacial phase, with a negative meltwater spike in δ18O and Sr concentrations initially decreasing from the progressive weathering of glacial till in the infiltration area. It is therefore possible that the Eemian climate in the Italian Alps was warmer and more humid than the Holocene, promoting stronger weathering and faster soil development

The relationship between ground conditions and injury: what level of evidence do we have?

PubMed

Petrass, Lauren A; Twomey, Dara M

2013-03-01

To identify studies which address the relationship between ground conditions and injury, in a sporting context and to evaluate current practice and provide recommendations for future studies that measure ground conditions and injury risk. Systematic review. A comprehensive search of electronic databases from the earliest records available until the end of 2011, and supplemental hand searching was conducted to identify relevant studies. A classification scale was used to rate the methodological quality of studies. 79 potentially relevant articles were identified, and 27 met all inclusion criteria. They varied in methodological quality, with analytical observational studies the most common design, although four descriptive observational studies, considered to be of lower quality were also identified. Only five studies objectively measured ground conditions, and of studies that used subjective assessment, only one provided descriptors to explain their classifications. It appears that harder/drier grounds are associated with an increased injury risk but the presence of major limitations necessitates cautious interpretation of many key findings. There is limited high quality evidence of the relationship between injury risk and ground conditions. Further research with high quality designs, and measurement of ground conditions are required to draw more definitive conclusions regarding this relationship. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fallow land effects on land-atmosphere interactions in California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Y.; Melton, F. S.; Kueppers, L. M.

2015-12-01

The recent drought in California increased the area of fallow land, which is cropland not planted or irrigated per normal agricultural practice. The effects of fallow land on land-atmosphere interactions in drought years are not well studied, but theoretically should alter local energy balance and surface climate relative to normal years, which in turn could affect neighboring cropland. We examined these effects using a regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model) coupled with a dynamic crop growth model (Community Land Model) that has an irrigation scheme to study the effects of fallow land in 2014, an extreme drought year in California. In our study, we used satellite-derived maps of cultivated and fallowed acreage, and defined summer fallow land in 2014 as the reduced percentage of cultivated land for each grid cell relative to the 2011 cultivated area (2011 was the most recent year following a winter with average or above average precipitation). Using a sensitivity experiment that kept large-scale climate boundary conditions constant, we found that fallow land resulted in even dryer and warmer weather that worsened the drought impact. Fallow land increased 2-meter air temperature by 0.1- 4 °C with 0-80% fallow land, mainly due to an increase in nighttime temperature. Fallow land warmed the atmosphere up to 850hpa during the day, and after sunset, the warmed atmosphere emitted downward longwave radiation that prevented the surface from rapidly cooling, and therefore resulted in warmer nights. Fallow land reduced near surface relative humidity by 5-30% and increased vapor pressure deficit by 0.5-2 kPa. These drier conditions increased the irrigation water demand in the nearby cropland: crops required 1-25% more irrigation with 10-80% fallow land within the same 10km grid cell. Our study suggests that fallow land has large impacts on land-atmosphere interactions and increases irrigation requirements in nearby cropland.

Epidemiology: Malaria in a warmer West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, C.; Jones, A. E.

2016-11-01

Malaria risk in West Africa is expected to fall (western region) or remain the same (eastern region) in response to climate change over the twenty-first century. This is primarily due to extreme temperature conditions projected under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Tree-ring anatomy and carbon isotope ratio show both direct and legacy effects of climate on bimodal xylem formation in Pinus pinea.

PubMed

Castagneri, Daniele; Battipaglia, Giovanna; von Arx, Georg; Pacheco, Arturo; Carrer, Marco

2018-04-24

Understanding how climate affects xylem formation is critical for predicting the impact of future conditions on tree growth and functioning in the Mediterranean region, which is expected to face warmer and drier conditions. However, mechanisms of growth response to climate at different temporal scales are still largely unknown, being complicated by separation between spring and autumn xylogenesis (bimodal temporal pattern) in most species such as Mediterranean pines. We investigated wood anatomical characteristics and carbon stable isotope composition in Mediterranean Pinus pinea L. along tree-ring series at intra-ring resolution to assess xylem formation processes and responses to intra-annual climate variability. Xylem anatomy was strongly related to environmental conditions occurring a few months before and during the growing season, but was not affected by summer drought. In particular, the lumen diameter of the first earlywood tracheids was related to winter precipitation, whereas the size of tracheids produced later was influenced by mid-spring precipitation. Diameter of latewood tracheids was associated with precipitation in mid-autumn. In contrast, tree-ring carbon isotope composition was mostly related to climate of the previous seasons. Earlywood was likely formed using both recently and formerly assimilated carbon, while latewood relied mostly on carbon accumulated many months prior to its formation. Our integrated approach provided new evidence on the short-term and carry-over effects of climate on the bimodal temporal xylem formation in P. pinea. Investigations on different variables and time scales are necessary to disentangle the complex climate influence on tree growth processes under Mediterranean conditions.

Seasonal variations in aridity and temperature characterize changing climate during the last deglaciation in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikes, Elisabeth L.; Medeiros, Patricia M.; Augustinus, Paul; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Freeman, Katherine R.

2013-08-01

New multiproxy records of aridity from northern New Zealand assess the seasonality and overall pattern of wetness through the Last Glacial Coldest Period (LGCP) to the early Holocene in the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Biomass burning indicators based on terrestrial biomarkers and δ13C of individual plant leaf wax carbon compounds (n-alkanoic acids) from a maar lake were used to track aridity. In combination with published sea surface temperatures and new pollen-based temperature estimates from the same core, seasonal climatological changes in the Auckland area were determined from 27 to 9 cal. ka BP. These proxies document a shift from cold and dry conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum to seasonally wetter conditions through the deglaciation. Spring became warmer first and possibly wetter while summers remained drier and initially cooler. The progression from cold-dry to warm-wet was punctuated by the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) which stands out as having wetter conditions in both spring and summer and mild cooling largely concentrated in spring. The seasonal climate trends observed here can be plausibly explained by a rapid change from a subpolar climate to one with subtropical control in this region of the southwest Pacific across the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition. A southerly shift and decreasing intensity of the westerly wind belt after the LGCP is considered to have driven the early deglacial warming and pulse of wetness whereas a northward shift without a commensurate increase in intensity of the westerlies may explain conditions in the ACR.

Defining Winter and Identifying Synoptic Air Mass Change in the Northeast and Northern Plains U.S. since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, C. J.; Pennington, D.; Beitscher, M. R.; Godek, M. L.

2017-12-01

demonstrate that Northeast winters have air mass conditions that have become warmer and drier in recent decades. Additionally, Northern Plains winters have air mass setups that have become warmer and more moist since the mid 1970s.

Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy: CAM engineering in trees

DOE PAGES

Borland, Anne M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.; ...

2014-12-15

We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. Onemore » approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.« less

A Functional Approach to Zooplankton Communities in Mountain Lakes Stocked With Non-Native Sportfish Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, Laura E.; Loewen, Charlie J. G.; Vinebrooke, Rolf D.

2018-03-01

Cumulative impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biodiversity and ecosystem function likely increase with elevation, thereby possibly placing alpine communities at greatest risk. Here, consideration of species traits enables stressor effects on taxonomic composition to be translated into potential functional impacts. We analyzed data for 47 taxa across 137 mountain lakes and ponds spanning large latitudinal (491 km) and elevational (1,399 m) gradients in western Canada, to assess regional and local factors of the taxonomic composition and functional structure of zooplankton communities. Multivariate community analyses revealed that small body size, clonal reproduction via parthenogenesis, and lack of pigmentation were species traits associated with both introduced non-native sportfish and also environmental conditions reflecting a warmer and drier climate—namely higher water temperatures, shallower water depths, and more chemically concentrated water. Thus, historical introductions of sportfish appear to have potentially induced greater tolerance in zooplankton communities of future climatic warming, especially in previously fishless alpine lakes. Although alpine lake communities occupied a relatively small functional space (i.e., low functional diversity), they were contained within the broader regional functional structure. Therefore, our findings point to the importance of dispersal by lower montane species to the future functional stability of alpine communities.

Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy.

PubMed

Borland, Anne M; Wullschleger, Stan D; Weston, David J; Hartwell, James; Tuskan, Gerald A; Yang, Xiaohan; Cushman, John C

2015-09-01

Global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour-pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. One approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAM members of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. The introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-resilient agroforestry: physiological responses to climate change and engineering of crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) as a mitigation strategy: CAM engineering in trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borland, Anne M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.

We know that global climate change threatens the sustainability of agriculture and agroforestry worldwide through increased heat, drought, surface evaporation and associated soil drying. Exposure of crops and forests to warmer and drier environments will increase leaf:air water vapour–pressure deficits (VPD), and will result in increased drought susceptibility and reduced productivity, not only in arid regions but also in tropical regions with seasonal dry periods. Fast-growing, short-rotation forestry (SRF) bioenergy crops such as poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) are particularly susceptible to hydraulic failure following drought stress due to their isohydric nature and relatively high stomatal conductance. Onemore » approach to sustaining plant productivity is to improve water-use efficiency (WUE) by engineering crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) into C3 crops. CAM improves WUE by shifting stomatal opening and primary CO 2 uptake and fixation to the night-time when leaf:air VPD is low. CAMmembers of the tree genus Clusia exemplify the compatibility of CAM performance within tree species and highlight CAM as a mechanism to conserve water and maintain carbon uptake during drought conditions. Moreover, the introduction of bioengineered CAM into SRF bioenergy trees is a potentially viable path to sustaining agroforestry production systems in the face of a globally changing climate.« less

Influence of UVB radiation on aquatic ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lean, D.R.S.

The impact of increased UVB (290--320 nm) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion is placed in context with how historical levels of both UVB and UVa (320--400 nm) have influenced the structure of aquatic communities and geochemistry of lakes and their drainage basins. Suggestions for the development of generalized models for predicting the impact of UV radiation are provided and illustrate that both the response of a particular process as a function of wavelength and reliable predictions for underwater spectral irradiance are needed. Direct effects on organisms are discussed in light of problems due to adaptation, avoidance, repair and consequencesmore » of changes from sensitive to tolerant species composition. Indirect effects mediated through photochemically produced highly reactive reduced oxygen species are introduced and related to redox reactions and metal speciation using the mercury cycle as an example. Although neglected in existing global carbon budgets, UV radiation is responsible for significant release of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide as well as many other organic metabolites from refractory dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Finally, it was argued that some lakes are losing the sun screen provided by DOC, the principal attenuator of UV radiation, due to increased acidification and lower DOC export due to the warmer drier climate conditions.« less

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

2013-01-01

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

Ants and termites increase crop yield in a dry climate.

PubMed

Evans, Theodore A; Dawes, Tracy Z; Ward, Philip R; Lo, Nathan

2011-03-29

Agricultural intensification has increased crop yields, but at high economic and environmental cost. Harnessing ecosystem services of naturally occurring organisms is a cheaper but under-appreciated approach, because the functional roles of organisms are not linked to crop yields, especially outside the northern temperate zone. Ecosystem services in soil come from earthworms in these cooler and wetter latitudes; what may fulfill their functional role in agriculture in warmer and drier habitats, where they are absent, is unproven. Here we show in a field experiment that ants and termites increase wheat yield by 36% from increased soil water infiltration due to their tunnels and improved soil nitrogen. Our results suggest that ants and termites have similar functional roles to earthworms, and that they may provide valuable ecosystem services in dryland agriculture, which may become increasingly important for agricultural sustainability in arid climates.

Ants and termites increase crop yield in a dry climate

PubMed Central

Evans, Theodore A.; Dawes, Tracy Z.; Ward, Philip R.; Lo, Nathan

2011-01-01

Agricultural intensification has increased crop yields, but at high economic and environmental cost. Harnessing ecosystem services of naturally occurring organisms is a cheaper but under-appreciated approach, because the functional roles of organisms are not linked to crop yields, especially outside the northern temperate zone. Ecosystem services in soil come from earthworms in these cooler and wetter latitudes; what may fulfill their functional role in agriculture in warmer and drier habitats, where they are absent, is unproven. Here we show in a field experiment that ants and termites increase wheat yield by 36% from increased soil water infiltration due to their tunnels and improved soil nitrogen. Our results suggest that ants and termites have similar functional roles to earthworms, and that they may provide valuable ecosystem services in dryland agriculture, which may become increasingly important for agricultural sustainability in arid climates. PMID:21448161

Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra.

PubMed

Leffler, A Joshua; Klein, Eric S; Oberbauer, Steven F; Welker, Jeffrey M

2016-05-01

Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.

Soil and ecosystem respiration responses to grazing, watering and experimental warming chamber treatments across topographical gradients in northern Mongolia.

PubMed

Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Plante, Alain F; Enkhmandal, Orsoo; Gonneau, Cédric; Casper, Brenda B; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Petraitis, Peter S

2016-05-01

Globally, soil respiration is one of the largest fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere and is known to be sensitive to climate change, representing a potential positive feedback. We conducted a number of field experiments to study independent and combined impacts of topography, watering, grazing and climate manipulations on bare soil and vegetated soil (i.e., ecosystem) respiration in northern Mongolia, an area known to be highly vulnerable to climate change and overgrazing. Our results indicated that soil moisture is the most important driving factor for carbon fluxes in this semi-arid ecosystem, based on smaller carbon fluxes under drier conditions. Warmer conditions did not result in increased respiration. Although the system has local topographical gradients in terms of nutrient, moisture availability and plant species, soil respiration responses to OTC treatments were similar on the upper and lower slopes, implying that local heterogeneity may not be important for scaling up the results. In contrast, ecosystem respiration responses to OTCs differed between the upper and the lower slopes, implying that the response of vegetation to climate change may override microbial responses. Our results also showed that light grazing may actually enhance soil respiration while decreasing ecosystem respiration, and grazing impact may not depend on climate change. Overall, our results indicate that soil and ecosystem respiration in this semi-arid steppe are more sensitive to precipitation fluctuation and grazing pressure than to temperature change.

Can Tree Ring Analyses Predict Resilience of Black Spruce Forests to Fire in Interior Alaska?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, X. J.; Johnstone, J. F.; Mack, M. C.

2015-12-01

Climate change has increased the occurrence, severity, and impact of disturbances on forested ecosystems worldwide. As such there is a growing need to identify factors that contribute to an ecosystem's ability to recover from disturbance, commonly referred to as ecosystem resilience. In trees, drought-induced growth declines may signal decreased ecosystem resilience if mature trees are able to survive in stressful environmental conditions that do not permit successful post-disturbance recruitment and survival. Here we explore links between ecosystem resilience and the growth-climate relationships of pre-fire trees, specifically drought stress signals, across topographic moisture gradients within the boreal forest. We sampled 72 recently (2004) burned black spruce stands within interior Alaska and found the proportion of black spruce relative to deciduous trees decreased post-fire, ranging from almost no change to a 90% decrease. The largest shifts in post-fire species composition occurred in sites where trees showed negative growth responses to warm spring temperatures, and shallow post-fire organic layer depths due to dry site conditions or high fire severity. These sites were generally located at warmer and drier landscape positions, suggesting they are less resilient to disturbance than sites at the wetter end of the gradient. Tree growth-climate responses can provide an estimate of stand environmental stress to ongoing climate change and as such are a valuable tool for predicting landscape variations in forest ecosystem resilience and forecasting future forest composition.

Future projections of temperature and precipitation climatology for CORDEX-MENA domain using RegCM4.4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2018-07-01

In this study, we investigate changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation climatology of CORDEX Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for three periods of 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100 with respect to the control period of 1970-2000 by using regional climate model simulations. Projections of future climate conditions are modeled by forcing Regional Climate Model, RegCM4.4 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) with two different CMIP5 global climate models. HadGEM2-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were used to generate 50 km resolution data for the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) Region 13. We test the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.4 in simulating the observed climatology over domain of the MENA by using the output of two different global climate models. The projection results show relatively high increase of average temperatures from 3 °C up to 9 °C over the domain for far future (2070-2100). A strong decrease in precipitation is projected in almost all parts of the domain according to the output of the regional model forced by scenario outputs of two global models. Therefore, warmer and drier than present climate conditions are projected to occur more intensely over the CORDEX-MENA domain.

Soil and ecosystem respiration responses to grazing, watering and experimental warming chamber treatments across topographical gradients in northern Mongolia

PubMed Central

Sharkhuu, Anarmaa; Plante, Alain F.; Enkhmandal, Orsoo; Gonneau, Cédric; Casper, Brenda B.; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Petraitis, Peter S.

2017-01-01

Globally, soil respiration is one of the largest fluxes of carbon to the atmosphere and is known to be sensitive to climate change, representing a potential positive feedback. We conducted a number of field experiments to study independent and combined impacts of topography, watering, grazing and climate manipulations on bare soil and vegetated soil (i.e., ecosystem) respiration in northern Mongolia, an area known to be highly vulnerable to climate change and overgrazing. Our results indicated that soil moisture is the most important driving factor for carbon fluxes in this semi-arid ecosystem, based on smaller carbon fluxes under drier conditions. Warmer conditions did not result in increased respiration. Although the system has local topographical gradients in terms of nutrient, moisture availability and plant species, soil respiration responses to OTC treatments were similar on the upper and lower slopes, implying that local heterogeneity may not be important for scaling up the results. In contrast, ecosystem respiration responses to OTCs differed between the upper and the lower slopes, implying that the response of vegetation to climate change may override microbial responses. Our results also showed that light grazing may actually enhance soil respiration while decreasing ecosystem respiration, and grazing impact may not depend on climate change. Overall, our results indicate that soil and ecosystem respiration in this semi-arid steppe are more sensitive to precipitation fluctuation and grazing pressure than to temperature change. PMID:28239190

Performance of three systems for warming intravenous fluids at different flow rates.

PubMed

Satoh, J; Yamakage, M; Wasaki, S I; Namiki, A

2006-02-01

This study compared the intravenous fluid warming capabilities of three systems at different flow rates. The devices studied were a water-bath warmer, a dry-heat plate warmer, and an intravenous fluid tube warmer Ambient temperature was controlled at 22 degrees to 24 degrees C. Normal saline (0.9% NaCl) at either room temperature (21 degrees to 23 degrees C) or at ice-cold temperature (3 degrees to 5 degrees C) was administered through each device at a range of flow rates (2 to 100 ml/min). To mimic clinical conditions, the temperature of the fluid was measured with thermocouples at the end of a one metre tube connected to the outflow of the warmer for the first two devices and at the end of the 1.2 m warming tubing for the intravenous fluid tube warmer The temperature of fluid delivered by the water bath warmer increased as the flow rate was increased up to 15 to 20 ml/min but decreased with greater flow rates. The temperature of the fluid delivered by the dry-heat plate warmer significantly increased as the flow rate was increased within the range tested (due to decreased cooling after leaving the device at higher flow rates). The temperature of fluid delivered by the intravenous fluid tube warmer did not depend on the flow rate up to 20 ml/min but significantly and fluid temperature-dependently decreased at higher flow rates (>30 ml/min). Under the conditions of our testing, the dry heat plate warmer delivered the highest temperature fluid at high flow rates.

Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V

2012-01-01

Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less

Contrasting terrestrial carbon cycle responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 extreme El Niño events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Zeng, Ning; Wang, Meirong; Jiang, Fei; Wang, Hengmao; Jiang, Ziqiang

2018-01-01

Large interannual atmospheric CO2 variability is dominated by the response of the terrestrial biosphere to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the behavior of terrestrial ecosystems differs during different El Niños in terms of patterns and biological processes. Here, we comprehensively compare two extreme El Niños (2015/16 and 1997/98) in the context of a multi-event composite El Niño. We find large differences in the terrestrial carbon cycle responses, even though the two events were of similar magnitude.More specifically, we find that the global-scale land-atmosphere carbon flux (FTA) anomaly during the 1997/98 El Niño was 1.64 Pg C yr-1, but half that quantity during the 2015/16 El Niño (at 0.73 Pg C yr-1). Moreover, FTA showed no obvious lagged response during the 2015/16 El Niño, in contrast to that during 1997/98. Separating the global flux by geographical regions, we find that the fluxes in the tropics and extratropical Northern Hemisphere were 1.70 and -0.05 Pg C yr-1 during 1997/98, respectively. During 2015/16, they were 1.12 and -0.52 Pg C yr-1, respectively. Analysis of the mechanism shows that, in the tropics, the widespread drier and warmer conditions caused a decrease in gross primary productivity (GPP; -0.73 Pg C yr-1) and an increase in terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER; 0.62 Pg C yr-1) during the 1997/98 El Niño. In contrast, anomalously wet conditions occurred in the Sahel and East Africa during 2015/16, which caused an increase in GPP, compensating for its reduction in other tropical regions. As a result, the total 2015/16 tropical GPP and TER anomalies were -0.03 and 0.95 Pg C yr-1. GPP dominance during 1997/98 and TER dominance during 2015/16 accounted for the phase difference in their FTA. In the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, the large difference occurred because temperatures over Eurasia were warmer during the 2015/16, as compared with the cooling seen during the 1997/98 and the composite El Niño. These

A 2650-year-long record of environmental change from northern Yellowstone National Park based on a comparison of multiple proxy data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, C.; Dean, W.; Rosenbaum, J.; Stevens, L.; Fritz, S.; Bracht, B.; Power, M.

2008-01-01

Geochemical, stable-isotope, pollen, charcoal, and diatom records were analyzed at high-resolution in cores obtained from Crevice Lake, a varved-sediment lake in northern Yellowstone National Park. The objective was to reconstruct the ecohydrologic, vegetation, and fire history of the watershed for the last 2650 years to better understand past climate variations at the forest-steppe transition. The data suggest a period of limited bottom-water anoxia, relatively wet winters, and cool springs and summers from 2650 to 2100 cal yr BP (700-150 BC). Dry warm conditions occurred between 2100 and 850-800 cal yr BP (150 BC and AD 1100-1150), when the lake was anoxic, winter precipitation was low, and summer stratification was protracted. The data are consistent with overall warmer/drier conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, although they suggest a shift towards wetter winters within that period. The period from 850 to 800 cal yr BP (AD 1100-1150) to 250 cal yr BP (AD 1700) was characterized by greater water-column mixing and cooler spring/summer conditions than before. In addition, fire activity shifted towards infrequent large events and pollen production was low. From 250 to 150 cal yr BP (AD 1700-1800), winter precipitation was moderate compared to previous conditions, and the lake was again stratified, suggesting warm summers. Between 150 and 42 cal yr BP (AD 1800-1908), winter precipitation increased and spring and summer conditions became moderate. Metal pollution, probably from regional mining operations, is evident in the 1870s. Large fires occurred between ca. 1800-1880, but in general the forests were more closed than before. The Crevice Lake record suggests that the last 150 years of Yellowstone's environmental history were characterized by intermediate conditions when compared with the previous 2500 years. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

PubMed

Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

2016-02-01

Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assimilation of NUCAPS Retrieved Profiles in GSI for Unique Forecasting Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily Beth; Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Blankenship, Clay

2015-01-01

Hyperspectral IR profiles can be assimilated in GSI as a separate observation other than radiosondes with only changes to tables in the fix directory. Assimilation of profiles does produce changes to analysis fields and evidenced by: Innovations larger than +/-2.0 K are present and represent where individual profiles impact the final temperature analysis.The updated temperature analysis is colder behind the cold front and warmer in the warm sector. The updated moisture analysis is modified more in the low levels and tends to be drier than the original model background Analysis of model output shows: Differences relative to 13-km RAP analyses are smaller when profiles are assimilated with NUCAPS errors. CAPE is under-forecasted when assimilating NUCAPS profiles, which could be problematic for severe weather forecasting Refining the assimilation technique to incorporate an error covariance matrix and creating a separate GSI module to assimilate satellite profiles may improve results.

6000-year record of forest history on Mount Rainier, Washington

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunwiddie, P.W.

1986-02-01

Sediments in three ponds between 1300 - 1500 m on the south side of Mt. Rainier were examined for plant macrofossils and pollen. Macrofossils of seral species such as Abies lasiocarpa, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Pinus monticola, Abies procera, and Pinus contorta are conspicuous from 6000 to 3400 BP. These species suggest a climate that was warmer/drier than today and favored frequent fires. Neoglacial cooling may have begun 3700-3400 BP, as species typical of higher elevations became prominent; a decline in seral species after 3400 BP suggests less frequent fires. In the last 100 yr, Tsuga heterophylla became abundant and then declinedmore » at the highest elevation site. General trends in pollen percentages are similar to the macrofossil curves. Tephra deposition from Mt. Rainier and Mt. St. Helens did not produce conspicuous changes in forest composition. Few major fires are evident from charcoal and macrofossils at these sites.« less

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

2014-01-01

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem

Climate change impacts on streamflow and subbasin-scale hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin.

PubMed

Ficklin, Darren L; Stewart, Iris T; Maurer, Edwin P

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21(st) century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21(st) century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of -100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of -100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Subbasin-Scale Hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin

PubMed Central

Ficklin, Darren L.; Stewart, Iris T.; Maurer, Edwin P.

2013-01-01

In the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), the principal source of water in the southwestern U.S., demand exceeds supply in most years, and will likely continue to rise. While General Circulation Models (GCMs) project surface temperature warming by 3.5 to 5.6°C for the area, precipitation projections are variable, with no wetter or drier consensus. We assess the impacts of projected 21st century climatic changes on subbasins in the UCRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, for all hydrologic components (snowmelt, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and streamflow), and for 16 GCMs under the A2 emission scenario. Over the GCM ensemble, our simulations project median Spring streamflow declines of 36% by the end of the 21st century, with increases more likely at higher elevations, and an overall range of −100 to +68%. Additionally, our results indicated Summer streamflow declines with median decreases of 46%, and an overall range of −100 to +22%. Analysis of hydrologic components indicates large spatial and temporal changes throughout the UCRB, with large snowmelt declines and temporal shifts in most hydrologic components. Warmer temperatures increase average annual evapotranspiration by ∼23%, with shifting seasonal soil moisture availability driving these increases in late Winter and early Spring. For the high-elevation water-generating regions, modest precipitation decreases result in an even greater water yield decrease with less available snowmelt. Precipitation increases with modest warming do not translate into the same magnitude of water-yield increases due to slight decreases in snowmelt and increases in evapotranspiration. For these basins, whether modest warming is associated with precipitation decreases or increases, continued rising temperatures may make drier futures. Subsequently, many subbasins are projected to turn from semi-arid to arid conditions by the 2080 s. In conclusion, water availability in the UCRB could

Late Quaternary eolian and alluvial response to paleoclimate, Canyonlands, southeastern Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.; Reynolds, R.L.; Goldstein, H.; Roberts, H.M.; Yount, J.C.; Axford, Y.; Cummings, L.S.; Shearin, N.

2005-01-01

In upland areas of Canyonlands National Park, Utah, thin deposits and paleosols show late Quaternary episodes of eolian sedimentation, pedogenesis, and climate change. Interpretation of the stratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence ages of eolian and nearby alluvial deposits, their pollen, and intercalated paleosols yields the following history: (1) Eolian deposition at ca. 46 ka, followed by several episodes of alluviation from some time before ca. 40 ka until after 16 ka (calibrated). (2) Eolian deposition from ca. 17 ka to 12 ka, interrupted by periods of pedogenesis, coinciding with late Pleistocene alluviation as local climate became warmer and wetter. (3) A wetter period from 12 to 8.5 ka corresponding to the peak of summer monsoon influence, during which soils formed relatively quickly by infiltration of eolian silt and clay, and trees and grasses were more abundant. (4) A drier period between ca. 8.5 and 6 ka during which sheetwash deposits accumulated and more desertlike vegetation was dominant; some dunes were reactivated at ca. 8 ka. (5) Episodic eolian and fluvial deposition during a wetter, cooler period that began at ca. 6 ka and ended by ca. 3-2 ka, followed by a shift to drier modern conditions; localized mobilization of dune sand has persisted to the present. These interpretations are similar to those of studies at the Chaco dune field, New Mexico, and the Tusayan dune field, Arizona, and are consistent with paleoclimate interpretations of pollen and packrat middens in the region. A period of rapid deposition and infiltration of eolian dust derived from distant igneous source terranes occurred between ca. 12 and 8 ka. Before ca. 17 ka, and apparently back to at least 45 ka, paleosols contain little or no such infiltrated dust. After ca. 8 ka, either the supply of dust was reduced or the more arid climate inhibited translocation of dust into the soils. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing

Air Conditioning with Magnetic Refrigeration : An Efficient, Green Compact Cooling System Using Magnetic Refrigeration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2010-09-01

BEETIT Project: Astronautics is developing an air conditioning system that relies on magnetic fields. Typical air conditioners use vapor compression to cool air. Vapor compression uses a liquid refrigerant to circulate within the air conditioner, absorb the heat, and pump the heat out into the external environment. Astronautics’ design uses a novel property of certain materials, called “magnetocaloric materials”, to achieve the same result as liquid refrigerants. These magnetocaloric materials essentially heat up when placed within a magnetic field and cool down when removed, effectively pumping heat out from a cooler to warmer environment. In addition, magnetic refrigeration uses nomore » ozone-depleting gases and is safer to use than conventional air conditioners which are prone to leaks.« less

Penultimate Glacial-Interglacial Climate Variability in the Southern Great Plains of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartow-Gillies, E.; Maupin, C. R.; Roark, E. B.; Chou, Y. C.; White, K.; Kampen-Lewis, S. V.; Shen, C. C.

2017-12-01

Projections of changes in rainfall under future warming scenarios vary in their sign and intensity over the Southern Great Plains (SGP). A scarcity of local paleoclimate information before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) limits our understanding of regional climate responses to changes in mean state and forcing. Here, we present absolutely U/Th-dated oxygen and carbon isotope records from a calcite stalagmite near Georgetown, Texas (30°N, 98°W), spanning 98 to 209 kyr before present (kyr BP). SGP moisture is primarily sourced from the Gulf of Mexico, and precipitation exhibits clear seasonality, with a biannual rainy season divided into late boreal spring and fall. We interpret the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmite to reflect changes in rainwater δ18O composition, as well as cave temperature, through time. There are no clear kinetic isotope effects observed within the stalagmite. More negative (positive) δ18O values are a reflection of warmer and wetter (cooler and drier) conditions based on modern observations of rainwater δ18O at the study site. Variations in stalagmite δ13C may be driven by shifts in overlying vegetation type and changes in the rates of karst flow and prior calcite precipitation. The stalagmite records include Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, an interval where global temperatures may have been as much as 2°C warmer and sea level 4-6 m higher than present. Thus, our δ18O record provides context of unique importance for how SGP hydroclimate may respond to future warming. Prominent features in the δ18O record, including a warm and wet MIS 5e appear to be paced by precession, with the timing of δ18O minima (maxima) broadly consistent with that of maxima (minima) in monthly insolation at 30°N. The δ13C record exhibits a striking similarity to canonical, sawtooth records of glacial-interglacial variability, which suggests Great Plains vegetation communities may be sensitive to the status of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Our SGP

Physicochemical conditions in affecting the distribution of spring phytoplankton community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yuqiu; Liu, Haijiao; Zhang, Xiaodong; Xue, Bing; Munir, Sonia; Sun, Jun

2017-11-01

To better understand the physicochemical conditions in affecting regional distribution of phytoplankton community, one research cruise was carried out in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea during 3rd and 23th May, 2010. The phytoplankton community, including Bacillariophyta (105 taxa), Pyrrophyta (54 taxa), Chrysophyta (1 taxon) and Chlorophyta (2 taxa), had been identified and clearly described from six ecological provinces. And, the six ecological provinces were partitioned based on the top twenty dominant species related with notable physicochemical parameters. In general, the regional distributions of phytoplankton ecological provinces were predominantly influenced by the physicochemical properties induced by the variable water masses and circulations. The predominant diatoms in most of water samples showed well adaptability in turbulent and eutrophic conditions. However, several species of dinoflagellates e.g., Protoperidinium conicum, Protoperidinium triestinum, Protoperidinium sp. and Gymnodinium lohmanni preferred warmer, saltier and nutrient-poor environment. Moreover, the dinoflagellates with high frequency in the Yellow Sea might be transported from the Yellow Sea Warm Current. The horizontal distribution of phytoplankton was depicted by diatoms and controlled by phosphate concentration, while the vertical distribution was mainly supported by light and nutrients availability in the subsurface and bottom layers, respectively.

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

2014-01-01

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

A 150-year record of phytoplankton community succession controlled by hydroclimatic variability in a tropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afrifa Yamoah, Kweku; Callac, Nolwenn; Fru, Ernest Chi; Wohlfarth, Barbara; Wiech, Alan; Chabangborn, Akkaneewut; Smittenberg, Rienk H.

2016-07-01

Climate and human-induced environmental change promote biological regime shifts between alternate stable states, with implications for ecosystem resilience, function, and services. While these effects have been shown for present-day ecosystems, the long-term response of microbial communities has not been investigated in detail. This study assessed the decadal variations in phytoplankton communities in a ca. 150 year long sedimentary archive of Lake Nong Thale Prong (NTP), southern Thailand using a combination of bulk geochemical analysis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and lipid biomarkers techniques including compound-specific hydrogen isotope analysis as a proxy for precipitation. Relatively drier and by inference warmer conditions from ca. 1857 to 1916 Common Era (CE) coincided with a dominance of the green algae Botryococcus braunii, indicating lower nutrient levels in the oxic lake surface waters, possibly related to lake water stratification. A change to higher silica (Si) input around 1916 CE was linked to increased rainfall and concurs with an abrupt takeover by diatom blooms lasting for 50 years. These were increasingly outcompeted by cyanobacteria from the 1970s onwards, most likely because of increased levels of anthropogenic phosphate and a reduction in rainfall. Our results showcase that the multi-proxy approach applied here provides an efficient way to track centennial-scale limnological, geochemical and microbial change, as influenced by hydroclimatic and anthropogenic forcing.

Recent seasonal variations in arid landscape cover and aeolian sand mobility, Navajo Nation, southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Redsteer, Margaret Hiza; Amoroso, Lee; Giosan, Liviu; Fuller, Dorian Q.; Nicoll, Kathleen; Flad, Rowan K.; Clift, Peter D.

2013-01-01

The socioeconomic impacts of climate change pose problems not only in devel- oping countries but also to residents of arid lands in the United States among marginalized societies with limited economic means. In the Navajo Nation, warming temperatures and recent drought have increased aeolian sediment mobility such that large, migrating sand dunes affect grazing lands, housing, and road access. Dust derived from this region also affects albedo and longevity of the Rocky Mountains snowpack, located downwind. We present initial results from a study that monitors sand transport and vegetation within a 0.2 km2 site in the Navajo lands, measuring the effects of drought on landscape stability since 2009. Sand mobility decreased substantially as 1 year with near-normal monsoon rainfall (2010) somewhat abated a decade-long drought, temporarily doubling vegetation cover. Vegetation that grew during 2010, with adequate rain, died off rapidly during dry conditions in 2011. Short-term increases in rainfall that promote annual, but not perennial, plant growth will not improve landscape stability in the long term. Climate projections suggest that a warmer, drier climate and potentially enhanced sediment supply from ephem- eral washes will further increase aeolian sand transport and dune activity, worsening the present challenges to people living in this region. Connections among climate, vegetation, and aeolian sediment erodibility in this region are highly relevant to other areas of the world with similar environmental problems.

Hunted gazelles evidence cooling, but not drying, during the Younger Dryas in the southern Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Gideon; Bar-Yosef, Ofer; Brittingham, Alex; Grosman, Leore; Munro, Natalie D.

2016-04-01

The climatic downturn known globally as the Younger Dryas (YD; ∼12,900-11,500 BP) has frequently been cited as a prime mover of agricultural origins and has thus inspired enthusiastic debate over its local impact. This study presents seasonal climatic data from the southern Levant obtained from the sequential sampling of gazelle tooth carbonates from the Early and Late Natufian archaeological sites of Hayonim and Hilazon Tachtit Caves (western Galilee, Israel). Our results challenge the entrenched model that assumes that warm temperatures and high precipitation are synonymous with climatic amelioration and cold and wet conditions are combined in climatic downturns. Enamel carbon isotope values from teeth of human-hunted gazelle dating before and during the YD provide a proxy measure for water availability during plant growth. They reveal that although the YD was cooler, it was not drier than the preceding Bølling-Allerød. In addition, the magnitude of the seasonal curve constructed from oxygen isotopes is significantly dampened during the YD, indicating that cooling was most pronounced in the growing season. Cool temperatures likely affected the productivity of staple wild cereal resources. We hypothesize that human groups responded by shifting settlement strategies-increasing population mobility and perhaps moving to the warmer Jordan Valley where wild cereals were more productive and stable.

Evaluation of High Resolution Rapid Refresh-Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model products for a case study using surface PM2.5 observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deanes, L. N.; Ahmadov, R.; McKeen, S. A.; Manross, K.; Grell, G. A.; James, E.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are increasing in number and size in the western United States as climate change contributes to warmer and drier conditions in this region. These fires lead to poor air quality and diminished visibility. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh-Smoke modeling system (HRRR-Smoke) is designed to simulate fire emissions and smoke transport with high resolution. The model is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model, coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) and uses fire detection data from the Visible Infrared and Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) satellite instrument to simulate wildfire emissions and their plume rise. HRRR-Smoke is used in both real-time applications and case studies. In this study, we evaluate the HRRR-Smoke for August 2015, during one of the worst wildfire seasons on record in the United States, by focusing on wildfires that occurred in the northwestern US. We compare HRRR-Smoke simulations with hourly fine particulate matter (PM2.5) observations from the Air Quality System (https://www.epa.gov/aqs) from multiple air quality monitoring sites in Washington state. PM2.5 data includes measurements from urban, suburban and remote sites in the state. We discuss the model performance in capturing large PM2.5 enhancements detected at surface sites due to wildfires. We present various statistical parameters to demonstrate HRRR-Smoke's performance in simulating surface PM2.5 levels.

Characterization and Modeling of Dust Emissions from an Instrumented Mine Tailings Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betterton, E. A.; Stovern, M.; Saez, A.; Csavina, J. L.; Felix Villar, O. I.; Field, J. P.; Rine, K. P.; Russell, M. R.; Saliba, P.

2012-12-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne particulate metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, due to potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Dust emissions and dispersion of contaminants from the Iron King Mine tailings in Dewey-Humboldt, Arizona, a Superfund site, are currently being investigated through in situ field measurements and computational fluid dynamics modeling. These tailings are heavily contaminated with lead and arsenic. We report on the chemical characterization of atmospheric dust and aerosol sampled near the mine tailings. Instrumented eddy flux towers were also setup on the mine tailings to give both spatial and temporal dust observations. The eddy flux towers have multiple DUSTTRAK monitors as well as weather stations. These in situ observations allow us to assess spatial distribution of suspended particulate. Using the DUSTTRAK flux tower observations at 10-second resolution in conjunction with a computational fluid dynamics model, we have been able to model dust transport from the mine tailings to downwind areas. In order to improve the accuracy of the dust transport simulations both regional topographical features and local weather patterns have been incorporated into the model simulations.

Evolution of the Planetary Boundary Layer on the northern coast of Brazil during the CHUVA campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Diogo Nunes da Silva; Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes; Fisch, Gilberto

2018-05-01

This study aims to characterize the wind and thermodynamic structure of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) on the northern coast of Brazil (NCB) via the CHUVA datasets. Three synoptic conditions were present in the NCB region between March 1 and 25, 2010: a dry period, the Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex (UTCV) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Nighttime precipitation accounted for 78% of the total precipitation observed in the month, mainly during the ITCZ. In general, the surface meteorological fields were few changed by intense weather events due to proximity to the ocean and the predominant contribution of the northeasterly trade winds. There was also a weak sea breeze signal that maintained the horizontal moisture flow in the studied area. On dry days, the PBL depth was higher, drier, and warmer, resulting in stronger winds below 500 m. Moreover, trends throughout the period suggest that PBLs are near-neutral below 500 m. However, the wind variability was intensified by up to 20% due to downdrafts and higher wind shears during the deep convection mechanisms derived by UTCV. Furthermore, ITCZ mixed rainfall cooled the PBL at approximately 2 K, making it very stable according to the Richardson number classification adopted. The observed temporal and spatial scale represent challenges to the physical parameterizations used to improve numerical weather prediction models over tropical coastal areas.

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

PubMed

Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

2013-03-01

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueppers, Lara; Faist, Akasha; Ferrenberg, Scott

Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. Here, we tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We also tracked germinationmore » rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Altogether these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.« less

PPR Great Red Spot Temperature Map

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1996-01-01

This map shows temperature for the region around Jupiter's Great Red Spot and an area to the northwest. It corresponds to a level in Jupiter's atmosphere where the pressure is 1/2 of the of the Earth's at sea level (500 millibars), the same as it is near 6000 meters (20,000 feet) above sea level on Earth. The center of Great Red Spot appears colder than the surrounding areas, where air from below is being brought up. The 'panhandle' to the northwest is warmer and drier, and the gases there are descending, so it is much clearer of clouds. Compare this map to one released earlier at a higher place in the atmosphere (250 millibars or 12000 meters). The center of the Great Red Spot is warmer lower in the atmosphere, and a white 'hot spot' appears in this image that is not present at the higher place. This map was made from data taken by the Photopolarimeter/Radiometer (PPR) instrument on June 26, 1996.

Launched in October 1989, Galileo entered orbit around Jupiter on December 7, 1995. The spacecraft's mission is to conduct detailed studies of the giant planet, its largest moons and the Jovian magnetic environment.

JPL manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C.

This image and other images and data received from Galileo are posted on the World Wide Web, on the Galileo mission home page at URL http://galileo.jpl.nasa.gov.

Spatial analysis of lymphatic filariasis distribution in the Nile Delta in relation to some environmental variables using geographic information system technology.

PubMed

Hassan, A N; Dister, S; Beck, L

1998-04-01

Geographic information system (GIS) was used to analyze the spatial distribution of filariasis in the Nile Delta. The study involved 201 villages belonging to Giza, Qalubiya, Monoufiya, Gharbiya, and Dakahliya governorates. Villages with similar microfilarial (mf) prevalence rates were observed to cluster within 1-2 km distance, then, clustering started to decrease significantly with distance up to 5 km (Pearson correlation coefficient = -0.98). the likelihood of negative and high prevalence villages being contiguous was very low (approximately 1.8%, n = 612 village-pairs) indicating homogeneity in disease processes within the defined spatial scales. Of the villages located within 2 km from the main Nile branches (n = 46), 95% exhibited low prevalence. In addition, the spatial pattern of mf prevalence was shown to be negatively associated with annual rainfall and relative humidity, while it was positively associated with annual daily temperature. Average mf prevalence in warmer, relatively drier areas receiving 25 mm of rain was significantly higher (3.9%) than that in less warmer but more humid areas receiving 50 mm of rain (1.6%) (P < 0.0001). Based on the results of the present study, GIS was used to generate a "filariasis risk map" that could be used by health authorities to efficiently direct surveillance and control efforts. This investigation identified some of the factors underlying filariasis spatial pattern, quantified clustering and demonstrated the potential of GIS application in vector-borne disease epidemiology.

Lab and Field Warming Similarly Advance Germination Date and Limit Germination Rate for High and Low Elevation Provenances of Two Widespread Subalpine Conifers

DOE PAGES

Kueppers, Lara; Faist, Akasha; Ferrenberg, Scott; ...

2017-11-11

Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. Here, we tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We also tracked germinationmore » rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Altogether these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.« less

The neotropical shrub Lupinus elegans, fromtemperate forests, may not adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Soto-Correa, J C; Sáenz-Romero, C; Lindig-Cisneros, R; de la Barrera, E

2013-05-01

Considering that their distribution is limited to altitudinal gradients along mountains that are likely to become warmer and drier, climate change poses an increased threat to temperate forest species from tropical regions. We studied whether the understorey shrub Lupinus elegans, endemic to temperate forests of west-central Mexico, will be able to withstand the projected temperature increase under seven climate change scenarios. Seeds were collected along an altitudinal gradient and grown in a shade-house over 7 months before determining their temperature tolerance as electrolyte leakage. The plants from colder sites tolerated lower temperatures, i.e. the temperature at which half of the maximum electrolyte leakage occurred (LT50), ranged from −6.4 ± 0.7 to −2.4 ± 0.3 °C. In contrast, no pattern was found for tolerance to high temperature (LT50 average 42.8 ± 0.3 °C). The climate change scenarios considered here consistently estimated an increase in air temperature during the present century that was higher for the maximum air temperature than for the mean or minimum. In particular, the anomaly from the normal maximum air temperature at the study region ranged from 2.8 °C by 2030 to 5.8 °C by 2090. In this respect, the inability of L. elegans to adapt to increasingly higher temperatures found here, in addition to a possible inhibition of reproduction caused by warmer winters, may limit its future distribution.

Remote sensing of surface water quality in relation to catchment condition in Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masocha, Mhosisi; Murwira, Amon; Magadza, Christopher H. D.; Hirji, Rafik; Dube, Timothy

2017-08-01

The degradation of river catchments is one of the most important contemporary environmental problems affecting water quality in tropical countries. In this study, we used remotely sensed Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to assess how catchment condition varies within and across river catchments in Zimbabwe. We then used non-linear regression to test whether catchment condition assessed using the NDVI is significantly (α = 0.05) related with levels of Total Suspended Solids (TSS) measured at different sampling points in thirty-two sub-catchments in Zimbabwe. The results showed a consistent negative curvilinear relationship between Landsat 8 derived NDVI and TSS measured across the catchments under study. In the drier catchments of the country, 98% of the variation in TSS is explained by NDVI, while in wetter catchments, 64% of the variation in TSS is explained by NDVI. Our results suggest that NDVI derived from free and readily available multispectral Landsat series data (Landsat 8) is a potential valuable tool for the rapid assessment of physical water quality in data poor catchments. Overall, the finding of this study underscores the usefulness of readily available satellite data for near-real time monitoring of the physical water quality at river catchment scale, especially in resource-constrained areas, such as the sub-Saharan Africa.

Variability in Canopy Transpiration with Atmospheric Drivers and Permafrost Thaw Depth in an Arctic Siberian Larch Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loranty, M. M.; Berner, L. T.; Alexander, H. D.; Davydov, S. P.

2014-12-01

Arctic ecosystems are experiencing rapid change associated with amplified rates of climate warming. A general increase in vegetation productivity has been among the expected responses for terrestrial ecosystems in the Arctic. However, recent evidence from satellite derived productivity metrics has revealed a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the magnitude, and even the direction, of productivity trends in recent decades. Declines in productivity may seem counterintuitive in what are traditionally thought to be temperature limited ecosystems. However a warmer and drier atmosphere in conjunction with changing permafrost conditions may impose hydrologic stresses on vegetation as well. Many Siberian ecosystems receive annual precipitation inputs characteristics of arid and semiarid regions. Boreal forests persist because permafrost acts as an aquatard trapping water near the surface and because historically cool growing season temperatures have kept atmospheric evaporative demand relatively low. As climate change simultaneously warms the atmosphere and deepens the active layer it is likely that vegetation will experience a higher degree of hydrologic limitation, perhaps necessitating the reallocation of resources. Here we use sap flux observations of canopy transpiration to understand the influence of atmospheric and permafrost conditions on the function of an arctic boreal forest in northeastern Siberia. We find that individual trees exhibit stronger responses to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (D) as the growing season progresses. Further, the magnitude of this response appears to be positively correlated with changes in the depth of permafrost thaw. These results imply that arctic boreal forests will need to adapt to increasing hydrologic stress in order to benefit from what are typically thought of as increasingly favorable growing conditions with continued climate change.

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

Controls on ecosystem and root respiration across a permafrost and wetland gradient in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

McConnell, Nicole A.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; McGuire, A. David; Kane, Evan S.; Waldrop, Mark P.; Harden, Jennifer W.

2013-01-01

Permafrost is common to many northern wetlands given the insulation of thick organic soil layers, although soil saturation in wetlands can lead to warmer soils and increased thaw depth. We analyzed five years of soil CO2 fluxes along a wetland gradient that varied in permafrost and soil moisture conditions. We predicted that communities with permafrost would have reduced ecosystem respiration (ER) but greater temperature sensitivity than communities without permafrost. These predictions were partially supported. The colder communities underlain by shallow permafrost had lower ecosystem respiration (ER) than communities with greater active layer thickness. However, the apparent Q10 of monthly averaged ER was similar in most of the vegetation communities except the rich fen, which had smaller Q10 values. Across the gradient there was a negative relationship between water table position and apparent Q10, showing that ER was more temperature sensitive under drier soil conditions. We explored whether root respiration could account for differences in ER between two adjacent communities (sedge marsh and rich fen), which corresponded to the highest and lowest ER, respectively. Despite differences in root respiration rates, roots contributed equally (~40%) to ER in both communities. Also, despite similar plant biomass, ER in the rich fen was positively related to root biomass, while ER in the sedge marsh appeared to be related more to vascular green area. Our results suggest that ER across this wetland gradient was temperature-limited, until conditions became so wet that respiration became oxygen-limited and influenced less by temperature. But even in sites with similar hydrology and thaw depth, ER varied significantly likely based on factors such as soil redox status and vegetation composition.

Breeding blueberries for a changing global environment: a review

PubMed Central

Lobos, Gustavo A.; Hancock, James F.

2015-01-01

Today, blueberries are recognized worldwide as one of the foremost health foods, becoming one of the crops with the highest productive and commercial projections. Over the last 100 years, the geographical area where highbush blueberries are grown has extended dramatically into hotter and drier environments. The expansion of highbush blueberry growing into warmer regions will be challenged in the future by increases in average global temperature and extreme fluctuations in temperature and rainfall patterns. Considerable genetic variability exists within the blueberry gene pool that breeders can use to meet these challenges, but traditional selection techniques can be slow and inefficient and the precise adaptations of genotypes often remain hidden. Marker assisted breeding (MAB) and phenomics could aid greatly in identifying those individuals carrying adventitious traits, increasing selection efficiency and shortening the rate of cultivar release. While phenomics have begun to be used in the breeding of grain crops in the last 10 years, their use in fruit breeding programs it is almost non-existent. PMID:26483803

Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Li, Mingwei

2017-12-01

We find that summertime air quality in the eastern U.S. displays strong dependence on North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, resulting from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Using observations, reanalysis data sets, and climate model simulations, we further identify a multidecadal variability in surface air quality driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In one-half cycle ( 35 years) of the AMO from cold to warm phase, summertime maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations increase by 1-4 ppbv and PM2.5 concentrations increase by 0.3-1.0 μg m-3 over much of the east. These air quality changes are related to warmer, drier, and more stagnant weather in the AMO warm phase, together with anomalous circulation patterns at the surface and aloft. If the AMO shifts to the cold phase in future years, it could partly offset the climate penalty on U.S. air quality brought by global warming, an effect which should be considered in long-term air quality planning.

Bacterial diversity is strongly associated with historical penguin activity in an Antarctic lake sediment profile.

PubMed

Zhu, Renbin; Shi, Yu; Ma, Dawei; Wang, Can; Xu, Hua; Chu, Haiyan

2015-11-25

Current penguin activity in Antarctica affects the geochemistry of sediments and their microbial communities; the effects of historical penguin activity are less well understood. Here, bacterial diversity in ornithogenic sediment was investigated using high-throughput pyrosequencing. The relative abundances of dominant phyla were controlled by the amount of historical penguin guano deposition. Significant positive correlations were found between both the bacterial richness and diversity, and the relative penguin number (p < 0.01); this indicated that historical penguin activity drove the vertical distribution of the bacterial communities. The lowest relative abundances of individual phyla corresponded to lowest number of penguin population at 1,800-2,300 yr BP during a drier and colder period; the opposite was observed during a moister and warmer climate (1,400-1,800 yr BP). This study shows that changes in the climate over millennia affected penguin populations and the outcomes of these changes affect the sediment bacterial community today.

Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecoregion: Chapter 26 in Status and trends of land change in the Western United States--1973 to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruhlman, Jana; Gass, Leila; Middleton, Barry

2012-01-01

Situated between ecoregions of distinctly different topographies and climates, the Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecoregion represents a large area of approximately 192,869 km2 (74,467 mi2) that stretches across northern Arizona, central and northwestern New Mexico, and parts of southwestern Colorado; in addition, a small part extends into southeastern Nevada (fig. 1) (Omernik, 1987; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1997). Forested, mountainous terrain borders the ecoregion on the northeast (Southern Rockies Ecoregion) and southwest (Arizona/New Mexico Mountains Ecoregion). Warmer and drier climates exist to the south (Chihuahuan Deserts Ecoregion) and west (Mojave Basin and Range Ecoregion). The semiarid grasslands of the western Great Plains are to the east (Southwestern Tablelands Ecoregion), and the tablelands of the Colorado Plateau in Utah and western Colorado lie to the north (Colorado Plateaus Ecoregion). The Arizona/New Mexico Plateau Ecoregion occupies a significant portion of the southern half of the Colorado Plateau.

Bacterial diversity is strongly associated with historical penguin activity in an Antarctic lake sediment profile

PubMed Central

Zhu, Renbin; Shi, Yu; Ma, Dawei; Wang, Can; Xu, Hua; Chu, Haiyan

2015-01-01

Current penguin activity in Antarctica affects the geochemistry of sediments and their microbial communities; the effects of historical penguin activity are less well understood. Here, bacterial diversity in ornithogenic sediment was investigated using high-throughput pyrosequencing. The relative abundances of dominant phyla were controlled by the amount of historical penguin guano deposition. Significant positive correlations were found between both the bacterial richness and diversity, and the relative penguin number (p < 0.01); this indicated that historical penguin activity drove the vertical distribution of the bacterial communities. The lowest relative abundances of individual phyla corresponded to lowest number of penguin population at 1,800–2,300 yr BP during a drier and colder period; the opposite was observed during a moister and warmer climate (1,400–1,800 yr BP). This study shows that changes in the climate over millennia affected penguin populations and the outcomes of these changes affect the sediment bacterial community today. PMID:26601753

Role of transpiration in arsenic accumulation of hyperaccumulator Pteris vittata L.

PubMed

Wan, Xiao-ming; Lei, Mei; Chen, Tong-bin; Yang, Jun-xing; Liu, Hong-tao; Chen, Yang

2015-11-01

Mechanisms of Pteris vittata L. to hyperaccumulate arsenic (As), especially the efficient translocation of As from rhizoids to fronds, are not clear yet. The present study aims to investigate the role of transpiration in the accumulation of As from the aspects of transpiration regulation and ecotypic difference. Results showed that As accumulation of P. vittata increased proportionally with an increase in the As exposure concentration. Lowering the transpiration rate by 28∼67% decreased the shoot As concentration by 19∼56%. Comparison of As distribution under normal treatment and shade treatment indicated that transpiration determines the distribution pattern of As in pinnae. In terms of the ecotypic difference, the P. vittata ecotype from moister and warmer habitat had 40% higher transpiration and correspondingly 40% higher shoot As concentration than the ecotype from drier and cooler habitat. Results disclosed that transpiration is the main driver for P. vittata to accumulate and re-distribute As in pinnae.

Responses of Hail and Storm Days to Climate Change in the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Tian; Zhang, Qinghong; Li, Wenhong; Li, Jihong

2018-05-01

There is increasing concern that local severe storm occurrence may be changing as a result of climate change. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the world's most sensitive areas to climate change, became significantly warmer during recent decades. Since 1960 (1980), storm (hail) days have been decreasing by 6.2%/decade (18.3%/decade) in the region. However, what caused the frequency changes of storm and hail in the TP is largely unknown. Based on 53-year continuous weather records at 48 TP stations and reanalysis data, we show here for the first time that the consistent decline of storm days is strongly related to a drier midtroposphere since 1960. Further analysis demonstrated that fewer hail days are driven by an elevation of the melting level (thermodynamically) and a weaker wind shear (dynamically) in a warming climate. These results imply that less storm and hail may occur over TP when climate warms.

A 75 ka Stalagmite Paleoclimate Record from Northern Venezuela

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retrum, J. B.; Gonzalez, L. A.; Edwards, R.; Tincher, S. M.; Cheng, H.; Urbani, F.

2011-12-01

A stalagmite collected from Cueva Zarraga in the northern Venezuelan Andes was analyzed to determine local paleoclimatic history and help examine climate change in the Caribbean. Ages were determined by U/Th disequilibrium and the stalagmite shows a nearly complete record for ~ 75 ka. Two significant periods of non-deposition have been identified. The first period ranges between the Last Glacial Maximum at 19,820 ± 149 cal yr BP and a brief resumption of stalagmite growth at 15,409 ± 747 cal yr BP, likely representing the Bølling-Allerød interstadial. After the brief period of deposition, growth does not resume unil the Holocene at 10,408 ± 78 cal yr BP. Carbon and oxygen isotopes show a major depletion shift from the last glacial period to the Holocene, suggesting warmer and wetter conditions during the Holocene. The oxygen isotope depletion shift is also seen in the Cariaco Basin foraminifera record off the northern coast of Venezuela. While tempting to attribute δ13C depletion to decrease of the C4 plant contribution, there is no evidence that the area experience major vegetation changes. We attribute the δ13C depletion to enhanced recycling of soil CO2 resulting from canopy effects. Today, Cueva Zarraga is at the northern extent of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The cooler and drier conditions of the last glacial period suggest a southern displacement of the ITCZ. The close proximity of Cueva Zarraga to Cariaco Basin may allow for a high resolution tropical terrestrial and oceanic climatic response comparison.

Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.

PubMed

Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M

2014-12-15

Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differences in human versus lightning fires between urban and rural areas of the boreal forest in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calef, Monika; Varvak, Anna; McGuire, A. David

2017-01-01

In western North America, the carbon-rich boreal forest is experiencing warmer temperatures, drier conditions and larger and more frequent wildfires. However, the fire regime is also affected by direct human activities through suppression, ignition, and land use changes. Models are important predictive tools for understanding future conditions but they are based on regional generalizations of wildfire behavior and weather that do not adequately account for the complexity of human–fire interactions. To achieve a better understanding of the intensity of human influence on fires in this sparsely populated area and to quantify differences between human and lightning fires, we analyzed fires by both ignition types in regard to human proximity in urban (the Fairbanks subregion) and rural areas of interior Alaska using spatial (Geographic Information Systems) and quantitative analysis methods. We found substantial differences in drivers of wildfire: while increases in fire ignitions and area burned were caused by lightning in rural interior Alaska, in the Fairbanks subregion these increases were due to human fires, especially in the wildland urban interface. Lightning fires are starting earlier and fires are burning longer, which is much more pronounced in the Fairbanks subregion than in rural areas. Human fires differed from lightning fires in several ways: they started closer to settlements and highways, burned for a shorter duration, were concentrated in the Fairbanks subregion, and often occurred outside the brief seasonal window for lightning fires. This study provides important insights that improve our understanding of the direct human influence on recently observed changes in wildfire regime with implications for both fire modeling and fire management.

Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.

2011-01-01

We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.

Climate change, zoonoses and India.

PubMed

Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

2011-12-01

Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

Stable isotopes, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Ca in biogenic carbonates from Petaluma Marsh, northern California, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ingram, B.L.; De Deckker, P.; Chivas, A.R.

2004-10-19

Stable isotope ({sup 18}O/{sup 16}O and {sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) and minor-element compositions (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios) of ostracodes and gastropods separated from marsh sediments from San Francisco Bay, Northern California, were used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes in Petaluma Marsh over the past 700 yr. The value of {delta}{sup 18}O in the marsh carbonates reflects changes in freshwater inflow, evaporation, and temperature. Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca in ostracode calcite reflect changes in both freshwater inflow and temperature, although primarily reflect temperature changes in the salinity range of about 10-35 {per_thousand}. Ostracode {delta}{sup 18}O values show a gradual increase by 5 {per_thousand} betweenmore » 500 yr BR and the present, probably reflecting rising sea level and increased evaporation in the marsh. Superimposed on this trend are higher frequency Mg/Ca and {delta}{sup 18}O variations (3-4 {per_thousand}), probably reflecting changes in freshwater inflow and evaporation. A period of low Mg/Ca occurred between about 100-300 cal yr BP, suggesting wetter and cooler conditions during the Little Ice Age. Higher Mg/Ca ratios occurred 600-700 cal yr BP, indicating drier and warmer conditions during the end of the Medieval Warm Period. Both ostracode and gastropod {delta}{sup 13}C values decrease up-core, reflecting decomposition of marsh vegetation, which changes from C{sub 4} ({delta}{sup 13}C {approx} -12{per_thousand}) to CAM ({delta}{sup 13}C = -26 {per_thousand})-type vegetation over time.« less

Stable isotopes, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Ca in biogenic carbonates from Petaluma Marsh, northern California, USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ingram, B.L.; Deckker, P. de; Chivas, A.R.

1998-10-01

Stable isotope ({sup 18}O/{sup 16}O and {sup 13}C/{sup 12}C) and minor-element compositions (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios) of ostracodes and gastropods separated from marsh sediments from San Francisco Bay, Northern California, were used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes in Petaluma March over the past 700 yr. The value of {delta}{sup 18}O in the marsh carbonates reflects changes in freshwater inflow, evaporation, and temperature. Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca in ostracode calcite reflect changes in both freshwater inflow and temperature, although primarily reflect temperature changes in the salinity range of about 10--35{per_thousand}. Ostracode {delta}{sup 18}O values show a gradual increase by 5{per_thousand} between 500 yrmore » BP and the present, probably reflecting rising sea level and increased evaporation in the marsh. Superimposed on this trend are higher frequency Mg/Ca and {delta}{sup 18}O variations (3--4{per_thousand}), probably reflecting changes in freshwater inflow and evaporation. A period of low Mg/Ca occurred between about 100--300 cal yr BP, suggesting wetter and cooler conditions during the Little Ice Age. Higher Mg/Ca ratios occurred 600--700 cal yr BP, indicating drier and warmer conditions during the end of the Medieval Warm Period. Both ostracode and gastropod {delta}{sup 13}C values decrease up-core, reflecting decomposition of marsh vegetation, which changes from C{sub 4} ({delta}{sup 13}C {approximately} {minus}12{per_thousand}) to CAM ({delta}{sup 13}C = {minus}26{per_thousand})-type vegetation over time.« less

Increased frequency of ENSO-related hydroclimate extremes in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Q.; Miao, C.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Global warming will likely alter surface warming in tropical Pacific regions, leading to changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics and an incresed frequency of extreme ENSO events. The ENSO-related climatic variation and associated impacts will likely be modified in a warmer climatic state. However, little is known about the effect of changes in ENSO teleconnections with regard to future dry and wet conditions over land around the globe, especially outside tropical regions. We used the model simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for different twenty-first-century emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to investigate the changes in the ENSO' teleconnection on dry/wet condition over global land. Our results show that 64.64% and 38.12% of 181 river basins studied are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of unusually wet/dry events forced by both ENSO phases under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The anomalous precipitation variability forced by ENSO events will be intensified through a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism over west North America, South America, central Asia, and west Asia. More than 850 million people are at risk of exposure to unusually dry/wet events. There is a potential increased risk of high-intensity dry/wet events, with an increase/decrease in the 50-year return level of SPI value for drying/wetting regions. These results have important implications for disaster evaluation and related policies and for appropriate engineering design.

Flash floods in small Alpine catchments in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of hazardous meteorological and hydrological events in numerous mountainous areas. The mountain environment is becoming more and more important for urbanization and the tourism-based economy. Here we show new and innovative methodologies for assessing intensity and frequency of flash floods in small Alpine catchments, in South Tyrol (Italy), under climate change. This research is done within the STEEP STREAMS project, whereby we work closely with decision makers in Italian authorities, and the final goal is to provide them with clear guidelines on how to adapt current structural solutions for mitigating hazardous events under future climate conditions. To this end, we develop a coupled framework of weather generation (i.e. extrapolation of observations and trained with climate projections), time series disaggregation and hydrological modelling using the conceptual HBV model. One of the key challenges is the transfer of comparatively coarse RCM projections to small catchments, whose sizes range from only about 10km2 to 100km2. We examine different strategies to downscale the RCM data from e.g. the EURO-CORDEX dataset using our weather generator. The selected projections represent combinations of warmer, milder, drier and wetter conditions. In general, our main focus is to develop an improved understanding of the impact of the multiple sources of uncertainty in this modelling framework, and make these uncertainties tangible. The output of this study (i.e. discharge with a return period and associated uncertainty) will allow hydraulic and sediment transport modelling of flash floods and debris flows.

Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Pilbeam, David J

2015-06-01

Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Female infidelity is constrained by El Niño conditions in a long-lived bird.

PubMed

Kiere, Lynna Marie; Drummond, Hugh

2016-07-01

Explaining the remarkable variation in socially monogamous females' extrapair (EP) behaviour revealed by decades of molecular paternity testing remains an important challenge. One hypothesis proposes that restrictive environmental conditions (e.g. extreme weather, food scarcity) limit females' resources and increase EP behaviour costs, forcing females to reduce EP reproductive behaviours. For the first time, we tested this hypothesis by directly quantifying within-pair and EP behaviours rather than inferring behaviour from paternity. We evaluated whether warmer sea surface temperatures depress total pre-laying reproductive behaviours, and particularly EP behaviours, in socially paired female blue-footed boobies (Sula nebouxii). Warm waters in the Eastern Pacific are associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation and lead to decreased food availability and reproductive success in this and other marine predators. With warmer waters, females decreased their neighbourhood attendance, total copulation frequency and laying probability, suggesting that they contend with restricted resources by prioritizing self-maintenance and committing less to reproduction, sometimes abandoning the attempt altogether. Females were also less likely to participate in EP courtship and copulations, but when they did, rates of these behaviours were unaffected by water temperature. Females' neighbourhood attendance, total copulation frequency and EP courtship probability responded to temperature differences at the between-season scale, and neighbourhood attendance and EP copulation probability were affected by within-season fluctuations. Path analysis indicated that decreased EP participation was not attributable to reduced female time available for EP activities. Together, our results suggest that immediate time and energy constraints were not the main factors limiting females' infidelity. Our study shows that El Niño conditions depress female boobies' EP participation and total reproductive

Effects of wildfire and permafrost on soil organic matter and soil climate in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Manies, K.L.; Turetsky, M.R.; Neff, J.C.

2006-01-01

The influence of discontinuous permafrost on ground-fuel storage, combustion losses, and postfire soil climates was examined after a wildfire near Delta Junction, AK in July 1999. At this site, we sampled soils from a four-way site comparison of burning (burned and unburned) and permafrost (permafrost and nonpermafrost). Soil organic layers (which comprise ground-fuel storage) were thicker in permafrost than nonpermafrost soils both in burned and unburned sites. While we expected fire severity to be greater in the drier site (without permafrost), combustion losses were not significantly different between the two burned sites. Overall, permafrost and burning had significant effects on physical soil variables. Most notably, unburned permafrost sites with the thickest organic mats consistently had the coldest temperatures and wettest mineral soil, while soils in the burned nonpermafrost sites were warmer and drier than the other soils. For every centimeter of organic mat thickness, temperature at 5cm depth was about 0.5??C cooler during summer months. We propose that organic soil layers determine to a large extent the physical and thermal setting for variations in vegetation, decomposition, and carbon balance across these landscapes. In particular, the deep organic layers maintain the legacies of thermal and nutrient cycling governed by fire and revegetation. We further propose that the thermal influence of deep organic soil layers may be an underlying mechanism responsible for large regional patterns of burning and regrowth, detected in fractal analyses of burn frequency and area. Thus, fractal geometry can potentially be used to analyze changes in state of these fire prone systems. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Thermoregulatory value of cracking-clay soil shelters for small vertebrates during extreme desert conditions.

PubMed

Waudby, Helen P; Petit, Sophie

2017-05-01

Deserts exhibit extreme climatic conditions. Small desert-dwelling vertebrates have physiological and behavioral adaptations to cope with these conditions, including the ability to seek shelter. We investigated the temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) regulating properties of the soil cracks that characterize the extensive cracking-clay landscapes of arid Australia, and the extent of their use by 2 small marsupial species: fat-tailed and stripe-faced dunnarts (Sminthopsis crassicaudata and Sminthopsis macroura). We measured hourly (over 24-h periods) the T and RH of randomly-selected soil cracks compared to outside conditions, during 2 summers and 2 winters. We tracked 17 dunnarts (8 Sminthopsis crassicaudata and 9 Sminthopsis macroura) to quantify their use of cracks. Cracks consistently moderated microclimate, providing more stable conditions than available from non-crack points, which often displayed comparatively dramatic fluctuations in T and RH. Both dunnart species used crack shelters extensively. Cracks constitute important shelter for small animals during extreme conditions by providing a stable microclimate, which is typically cooler than outside conditions in summer and warmer in winter. Cracks likely play a fundamental sheltering role by sustaining the physiological needs of small mammal populations. Globally, cracking-clay areas are dominated by agricultural land uses, including livestock grazing. Management of these systems should focus not only on vegetation condition, but also on soil integrity, to maintain shelter resources for ground-dwelling fauna. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Germination behaviour of annual plants under changing climatic conditions: separating local and regional environmental effects.

PubMed

Petrů, Martina; Tielbörger, Katja

2008-04-01

The role of local adaptation and factors other than climate in determining extinction probabilities of species under climate change has not been yet explicitly studied. Here we performed a field experiment with annual plants growing along a steep climatic gradient in Israel to isolate climatic effects for local trait expression. The focus trait was seed dormancy, for which many theoretical predictions exist regarding climate-driven optimal germination behaviour. We evaluated how germination is consistent with theory, indicating local adaptation to current and changing climatic conditions, and how it varies among species and between natural and standardised soil conditions. We reciprocally sowed seeds from three or four origins for each of three annual species, Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus and Hymenocarpos circinnatus, in their home and neighbouring sowing locations along an aridity gradient. Our predictions were: lower germination fraction for seeds from more arid origins, and higher germination at wetter sowing locations for all seed origins. By sowing seeds in both local and standard soil, we separated climatic effects from local conditions. At the arid sowing location, two species supported the prediction of low germination of drier seed origins, but differences between seed origins at the other sites were not substantial. There were no clear rainfall effects on germination. Germination fractions were consistently lower on local soil than on standard soil, indicating the important role of soil type and neighbour conditions for trait expression. Local environmental conditions may override effects of climate and so should be carefully addressed in future studies testing for the potential of species to adapt or plastically respond to climate change.

Surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wise, D.R.; Johnson, H.M.

2011-01-01

The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts.

Implications of Martian Phyllosilicate Formation Conditions to the Early Climate on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bishop, J. L.; Baker, L.; Fairén, A. G.; Michalski, J. R.; Gago-Duport, L.; Velbel, M. A.; Gross, C.; Rampe, E. B.

2017-12-01

We propose that short-term warmer and wetter environments, occurring sporadically in a generally cold early Mars, enabled formation of phyllosilicate-rich outcrops on the surface of Mars without requiring long-term warm and wet conditions. We are investigating phyllosilicate formation mechanisms including CO2 and H2O budgets to provide constraints on the early martian climate. We have evaluated the nature and stratigraphy of phyllosilicate-bearing surface units on Mars based on i) phyllosilicate-forming environments on Earth, ii) phyllosilicate reactions in the lab, and iii) modeling experiments involving phyllosilicates and short-range ordered (SRO) materials. The type of phyllosilicates that form on Mars depends on temperature, water/rock ratio, acidity, salinity and available ions. Mg-rich trioctahedral smectite mixtures are more consistent with subsurface formation environments (crustal, hydrothermal or alkaline lakes) up to 400 °C and are not associated with martian surface environments. In contrast, clay profiles dominated by dioctahedral Al/Fe-smectites are typically formed in subaqueous or subaerial surface environments. We propose models describing formation of smectite-rich outcrops and laterally extensive vertical profiles of Fe/Mg-smectites, sulfates, and Al-rich clay assemblages formed in surface environments. Further, the presence of abundant SRO materials without phyllosilicates could mark the end of the last warm and wet episode on Mars supporting smectite formation. Climate Implications for Early Mars: Clay formation reactions proceed extremely slowly at cool temperatures. The thick smectite outcrops observed on Mars through remote sensing would require standing water on Mars for hundreds of millions of years if they formed in waters 10-15 °C. However, warmer temperatures could have enabled faster production of these smectite-rich beds. Sporadic warming episodes to 30-40 °C could have enabled formation of these smectites over only tens or

Modelling the perception of weather conditions by users of outdoor public spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade, H.; Oliveira, S.; Alcoforado, M.-J.

2009-09-01

Outdoor public spaces play an important role for the quality of life in urban areas. Their usage depends, among other factors, on the bioclimatic comfort of the users. Climate change can modify the uses of outdoor spaces, by changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Understanding the way people perceive the microclimatic conditions is an important tool to the design of more comfortable outdoor spaces and in anticipating future needs to cope with climate change impacts. The perception of bioclimatic comfort by users of two different outdoor spaces was studied in Lisbon. A survey of about one thousand inquires was carried out simultaneously with weather measurements (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar and long wave radiation), during the years 2006 and 2007. The aim was to assess the relationships between weather variables, the individual characteristics of people (such as age and gender, among others) and their bioclimatic comfort. The perception of comfort was evaluated through the preference votes of the interviewees, which consisted on their answers concerning the desire to decrease, maintain or increase the values of the different weather parameters, in order to improve their comfort at the moment of the interview. The perception of the atmospheric conditions and of the bioclimatic comfort are highly influenced by subjective factors, which are difficult to integrate in a model. Nonetheless, the use of the multiple logistic regression allows the definition of patterns in the quantitative relation between preference votes and environmental and personal parameters. The thermal preference depends largely on the season and is associated with wind speed. Comfort in relation to wind depends not only on the speed but also on turbulence: a high variability in wind speed is generally perceived as uncomfortable. It was also found that the acceptability of warmer conditions is higher than for cooler conditions and the majority of people declared

Environmental conditions associated with bat white-nose syndrome in the north-eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flory, Abigail R.; Kumar, Sunil; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Cryan, Paul M.

2012-01-01

2. By 2010, the fungus G. destructans was detected in new areas of North America far from the area it was first observed, as well as in eight European bat species in different countries, yet mortality was not observed in many of these new areas of North America or in any part of Europe. This could be because of the differences in the fungus, rates of disease progression and/or in life-history or physiological traits of the affected bat species between different regions. Infection of bats by G. destructans without associated mortality might also suggest that certain environmental conditions might have to co-occur with fungal infection to cause mortality. 3. We tested the environmental conditions hypothesis using Maxent to map and model landscape surface conditions associated with WNS mortality. This approach was unique in that we modelled possible requisite environmental conditions for disease mortality and not simply the presence of the causative agent. 4. The top predictors of WNS mortality were land use/land cover types, mean air temperature of wettest quarter, elevation, frequency of precipitation and annual temperature range. Model results suggest that WNS mortality is most likely to occur in landscapes that are higher in elevation and topographically heterogeneous, drier and colder during winter, and more seasonally variable than surrounding landscapes. 5. Synthesis and applications. This study mapped the most likely environmental surface conditions associated with bat mortality owing to WNS in the north-eastern United Sates; maps can be used for selection of priority monitoring sites. Our results provide a starting point from which to investigate and predict the potential spread and population impacts of this catastrophic emerging disease.

Orbitally-forced Azolla blooms and middle Eocene Arctic hydrology; clues from palynology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barke, Judith; Abels, Hemmo A.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Greenwood, David R.; Sweet, Arthur R.; Donders, Timme; Lotter, Andre F.; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Brinkhuis, Henk

2010-05-01

stronger seasonality with colder winters and warmer summers during precession minima. Together with the Azolla demise at 48.1 Ma, a concurrent decline of swamp vegetation suggests drier local conditions on land, saltwater intrusion, and possibly decreased runoff into the Arctic Ocean, causing salinity changes which could have been fatal for Azolla blooms. After the Azolla demise, the cyclic distribution of freshwater tolerant dinoflagellate cysts suggests that runoff cycles continued to influence the central Arctic although at decreased intensity.

Are signals of westerly wind strength and hydroclimate change during the late Holocene preserved in Antarctic peatbanks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stelling, J.; Yu, Z.; Beilman, D. W.; Loisel, J.

2017-12-01

Over the second half of the 20th century the western Antarctic Peninsula experienced a warmer and moister climate, possibly brought by the poleward expansion of the southern westerly wind belt. However, it is not well-known how terrestrial ecosystems on the peninsula have responded to circulation change over the last two millennia. Here we present a paleoecological and geochemical record derived from peatbank deposits on contrasting slopes on Litchfield Island (64°46'S; 64°06'W) to better understand ecosystem response over the late Holocene. Chronology of our three peat cores is constrained by 18 radiocarbon dates. The north-facing peatbank initiated 2700 calibrated years before present (cal yr BP) had a time-weighted accumulation rate of 0.3 mm yr-1 with the interval of lowest growth (<0.03 mm yr-1) from 1300 to 500 cal yr BP. However, the last 500 cal yr BP show increased accumulation rate (>0.6 mm yr-1). The other two peatbanks (southwest and west-facing) initiated after 500 cal yr BP with 1.5 mm yr-1 vertical accumulation rate. We suspect the delayed initiation in southwest or west-facing slopes was caused by cold/cool summer and likely persistent snow cover before 500 cal yr BP. Under the same regional climate, the cool summer, and perhaps more snow, on the north-facing slope causes the slow accumulation rate there at 1300-500 cal yr BP. Furthermore, the results show that carbon accumulation follows a similar pattern with an increased rate (greater than the time-weighted mean 20 g C m-2 yr-1), of up to 110 g C m-2 yr-1 at 1300 cal yr BP, and then decreased accumulation thereafter until 500 cal yr BP. Surprisingly, on peatbanks with different microclimates, there is a common pattern of large-scale species dominance shifts —from less than 10% to greater than >80%—between drier Polytrichum and wetter Chorisodontium. These dominance shifts indicate that despite differing accumulation histories, patterns of external influence can be detected. Warmer and

Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

2014-05-01

Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

Surface-Water Nutrient Conditions and Sources in the United States Pacific Northwest1

PubMed Central

Wise, Daniel R; Johnson, Henry M

2011-01-01

Abstract The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts. PMID:22457584

Neotropical eocene coastal floras and [sup 18]O/[sup 16]O-estimated warmer vs. cooler equatorial waters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graham, A.

1994-03-01

The history of the earth's sea-surface temperature (SST) in equatorial regions during the Tertiary is unsettled because of uncertainty as to the presence and extent of glaciers during the Paleogene. The [sup 16]O trapped in glaciers and subsequently released back to the ocean basins as meltwater during interglacials affects the [sup 18]O/[sup 16]O ratio of sea water, one of the variables that must be known for oxygen isotope paleotemperature analysis of calcareous fossils. Estimates of SST range from [approximately]18 to 20 C, assuming an ice-free earth, to [approximately]28 C assuming glaciers were present in the Paleogene. Low latitude SST presentlymore » averages 28C, so the former estimate gives a value 8 to 10 C cooler than present, while the latter gives a value as warm or slightly warmer than present. The figures are important for interpreting terrestrial vegetational history because the temperature differential between low and high latitudes is a major factor in determining global climates through the control of poleward transfer of heat. The middle( ) to late Eocene Gatuncillo Formation palynoflora of Panama was deposited at the ocean-continental interface at [approximately]9[degrees]N latitude. The individual components and paleocommunities are distinctly tropical and similar to the present vegetation along the Atlantic coast of southern Central America. This is consistent with data emerging from other recently studied tropical coastal biotas and represents a contribution from paleobiology toward eventually resolving the problem of Eocene equatorial marine environments. Collectively, the evidence is beginning to favor a model of Eocene SST near present values. 50 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.« less

Middle Pliocene vegetation: Reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Fleming, R.F.

1996-01-01

The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modern conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2????2?? global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2????2?? grid. A modern 1????1?? vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

Impact of Ischemia and Procurement Conditions on Gene Expression in Renal Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Nick W.; Sanford, Thomas; Srinivasan, Ramaprasad; Liu, Jack L.; Khurana, Kiranpreet; Aprelikova, Olga; Valero, Vladimir; Bechert, Charles; Worrell, Robert; Pinto, Peter A.; Yang, Youfeng; Merino, Maria; Linehan, W. Marston; Bratslavsky, Gennady

2013-01-01

Purpose Previous studies have shown that ischemia alters gene expression in normal and malignant tissues. There are no studies that evaluated effects of ischemia in renal tumors. This study examines the impact of ischemia and tissue procurement conditions on RNA integrity and gene expression in renal cell carcinoma. Experimental Design Ten renal tumors were resected without renal hilar clamping from 10 patients with renal clear cell carcinoma. Immediately after tumor resection, a piece of tumor was snap frozen. Remaining tumor samples were stored at 4C, 22C and 37C and frozen at 5, 30, 60, 120, and 240 minutes. Histopathologic evaluation was performed on all tissue samples, and only those with greater than 80% tumor were selected for further analysis. RNA integrity was confirmed by electropherograms and quantitated using RIN index. Altered gene expression was assessed by paired, two-sample t-test between the zero time point and aliquots from various conditions obtained from the same tumor. Results One hundred and forty microarrays were performed. Some RNA degradation was observed 240 mins after resection at 37C. The expression of over 4,000 genes was significantly altered by ischemia times or storage conditions. The greatest gene expression changes were observed with longer ischemia time and warmer tissue procurement conditions. Conclusion RNA from kidney cancer remains intact for up to 4 hours post surgical resection regardless of storage conditions. Despite excellent RNA preservation, time after resection and procurement conditions significantly influence gene expression profiles. Meticulous attention to pre-acquisition variables is of paramount importance for accurate tumor profiling. PMID:23136194

Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions.

PubMed

Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-09-01

Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic.

PubMed

Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

2016-01-01

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800-1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years.

Evidence of a Cooler Continental Climate in East China during the Warm Early Cenozoic

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qian-Qian; Smith, Thierry; Yang, Jian; Li, Cheng-Sen

2016-01-01

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years. PMID:27196048

Climate change and archaeological site distribution during the past four millennia in northern Jordan utilizing oxygen isotope analysis of human tooth enamel and geographic information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alakkam, Abdulla Ahmed

The enamels of one hundred and ninety two teeth were analyzed for their oxygen isotopic composition from five archaeological sites in northern Jordan (Ya'amoun, Pella, Yasieleh, Sa'ad and Waqqas) to reconstruct the climate from the Middle Bronze Age II (1800--1500 BCE) to the Late Byzantine Period (491--640 CE). Results showed that the Middle Bronze Age II delta 18O values were the highest indicating warmer and drier climate conditions. The Late Bronze Age II and the Iron Age I/II experienced more favorable climate conditions. The Early Byzantine period delta18O values indicate wetter conditions compared to the Late Byzantine period but the latter was wetter than the Middle Bronze Age II. The geographic distribution of the archaeological sites in Jordan was affected by climate that changed over the prehistory of the country (from the Paleolithic to the Ottoman Period). Archaeological sites decreased in number during dry periods like the Middle Bronze Age II but increased during wet periods like the Roman one. Proximity to water sources was favored during the various cultural periods, where the northwestern and the mid-western areas witnessed dense occupation. On the other hand, areas that presently receive less than 200mm annual rainfall were not favored even during the wet periods. There were major climate events that overran the whole Mediterranean region during the Holocene, where Jordan was subject to them as well. These climatic events (prolonged droughts and/or insufficient precipitation) were identified using Bryson's archaeoclimate model that simulates the amount of precipitation, evapotranspiration and temperature during the last 12,000 years. These climate events coincided with the collapse of many societies in the Levant, such as the Middle Bronze Age societies of Mesopotamian cities.

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

PubMed Central

Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A.; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

2013-01-01

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can

Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.

2014-12-01

In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.

Photosynthetic Response of Poplars (Populus) to Climatic Stressors: Investigating Isoprene's Role in Increasing Tolerance to Temperature and Atmospheric Water Stress in Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeiffer, A. W.; Minor, R. L.; Heard, M. M.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2014-12-01

The southwestern United States is expected to become warmer and drier under future climate projections. The way in which plant and ecosystems respond to these changes is valuable for predicting carbon and water cycling, ecosystem resilience, phenology, and future agriculture, including biofuel production. We examined the interacting effects of dominant climate stressors--vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature--on photosynthesis. Specifically, we tested whether or not plant production of the terpene isoprene imparts heat and water-stress tolerance. Within an experimental common garden of poplars (Populus) at University of Arizona's Biosphere 2 we measured four separate genetic lines - two that retained isoprene production capacity and two that had this gene "knocked out". VPD was altered at temperatures of 30, 35, and 40C to present both heat and aridity stresses. Maximum photosynthetic capacity (Amax), the VPD at which Amax occurred (VPDopt), and the VPD range between Amax and ninety percent of Amax (Ω90) were calculated to quantify how VPD differentially affected the lines. Amax was significantly lower in knockout lines than in control lines. Moreover, the difference in Amax between lines increased from 19.3% at 30C to 28.4% at 35C to 39.0% at 40C, indicating that trees without isoprene production are less equipped to handle hot and dry conditions. Ω90 and VPDopt response were not the same, though. Isoprene knockouts had significantly higher VPD optimums (1.9749 kPA vs. 1.6451 kPa) compared to isoprene-producing lines. Although maximum photosynthesis is diminished without isoprene production under water and heat stress, isoprene knockout lines were still fairly active at a high VPD and under a wide range of VPD conditions. Beyond advancing our basic understanding of plant ecophysiology, these results will inform the potential use of poplars as a source of biofuel production across a range of current and projected climate conditions.

Pollen-based reconstruction of vegetational and climatic change over the past ~30 ka at Shudu Lake in the Hengduan Mountains of Yunnan, southwestern China.

PubMed

Yao, Yi-Feng; Song, Xiao-Yan; Wortley, Alexandra H; Wang, Yu-Fei; Blackmore, Stephen; Li, Cheng-Sen

2017-01-01

The Hengduan Mountains, with a distinct altitudinal differentiation and strong vertical vegetation zonation, occupy an important position in southwestern China as a global hotspot of biodiversity. Pollen analysis of lake sediments sampled along an altitudinal gradient in this region helps us to understand how this vegetation zonation arose and how it has responded to climate change and human impacts through time. Here we present a ~30-ka pollen record and interpret it in terms of vegetational and climatic change from a 310 cm-long core from Shudu Lake, located in the Hengduan Mountains region. Our results suggest that from 30 to 22 cal. ka BP, the vegetation was dominated by steppe/grassland (comprising mainly Artemisia, Poaceae and Polygonaceae) and broad-leaved forest (primarily Quercus, Betula and Castanopsis) in the lake catchment, reflecting a relatively warm, wet climate early in this phase and slightly warmer, drier conditions late in the phase. The period between 22 and 13.9 cal. ka BP was marked by a large expansion of needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest (Pinus, Abies and Quercus) and a decline in the extent of steppe/grassland, indicating warming, drying climatic conditions followed by a cold, wet period. Between 13.9 and 3 cal. ka BP, steppe/grassland expanded and the area covered by needle- and broad-leaved mixed forest reduced, implying a fluctuating climate dominated by warm and humid conditions. After 3 cal. ka BP, the vegetation was characterized by an increase in needle-leaved forest and reduction in steppe/grassland, suggesting warming and drying climate. A synthesis of palynological investigations from this and other sites suggests that the vegetation succession patterns seen along an altitudinal gradient in northwestern Yunnan since the Late Pleistocene are comparable, but that each site has its own characteristics probably due to the influences of altitude, topography, microclimate and human impact.

Pollen-proxies say cooler, climate models say warmer: resolving conflicting views of the Holocene climate of the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, E.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Mediterranean region's climate during the Holocene has been the subject of long-standing debate within the paleoclimate community. Conflicting hypotheses have emerged from the analysis of different climate reconstructions based on proxy records and climate models outputs.In particular, pollen-based reconstructions of cooler summer temperatures during the Holocene have been criticized based on a hypothesis that the Mediterranean vegetation is mainly limited by effective precipitation and not summer temperature. This criticism is important because climate models show warmer summer temperatures during the Holocene over the Mediterranean region, in direct contradiction of the pollen-based evidence. Here we investigate this problem using a high resolution model simulation of the climate of the Mediterranean region during the mid-to-late Holocene, which we compare against pollen-based reconstructions using two different approaches.In the first, we compare the simulated climate from the model directly with the climate derived from the pollen data. In the second, we compare the simulated vegetation from the model directly with the vegetation from the pollen data.Results show that the climate model is unable to simulate neither the climate nor the vegetation shown by the pollen-data. The pollen data indicates an expansion in cool temperate vegetation in the mid-Holocene while the model suggests an expansion in warm arid vegetation. This suggests that the data-model discrepancy is more likely the result of bias in climate models, and not bias in the pollen-climate calibration transfer-function.

Characterizing meteorological and hydrologic conditions associated with shallow landslide initiation in the coastal bluffs of the Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ashland, Francis; Fiore, Alex R.; Reilly, Pamela A.; De Graff, Jerome V.; Shakoor, Abdul

2017-01-01

Meteorological and hydrologic conditions associated with shallow landslide initiation in the coastal bluffs of the Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey remain undocumented despite a history of damaging slope movement extending back to at least 1903. This study applies an empirical approach to quantify the rainfall conditions leading to shallow landsliding based on analysis of overlapping historical precipitation data and records of landslide occurrence, and uses continuous monitoring to quantify antecedent soil moisture and hydrologic response to rainfall events at two failure-prone hillslopes. Analysis of historical rainfall data reveals that both extended duration and cumulative rainfall amounts are critical characteristics of many landslide-inducing storms, and is consistent with current monitoring results that show notable increases in shallow soil moisture and pore-water pressure in continuous rainfall periods. Monitoring results show that shallow groundwater levels and soil moisture increase from annual lows in late summer-early fall to annual highs in late winter-early spring, and historical data indicate that shallow landslides occur most commonly from tropical cyclones in late summer through fall and nor’easters in spring. Based on this seasonality, we derived two provisional rainfall thresholds using a limited dataset of documented landslides and rainfall conditions for each season and storm type. A lower threshold for landslide initiation in spring corresponds with high antecedent moisture conditions, and higher rainfall amounts are required to induce shallow landslides during the drier soil moisture conditions in late summer-early fall.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

PubMed

Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-12-01

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2007-12-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Increased resource partitioning, likely mostly through spatial complementarity, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Metal and Metalloid Contaminants in Atmospheric Aerosols from Mining Operations

PubMed Central

Csavina, Janae; Landázuri, Andrea; Wonaschütz, Anna; Rine, Kyle; Rheinheimer, Paul; Barbaris, Brian; Conant, William; Sáez, A. Eduardo; Betterton, Eric A.

2013-01-01

Mining operations are potential sources of airborne metal and metalloid contaminants through both direct smelter emissions and wind erosion of mine tailings. The warmer, drier conditions predicted for the Southwestern US by climate models may make contaminated atmospheric dust and aerosols increasingly important, with potential deleterious effects on human health and ecology. Fine particulates such as those resulting from smelting operations may disperse more readily into the environment than coarser tailings dust. Fine particles also penetrate more deeply into the human respiratory system, and may become more bioavailable due to their high specific surface area. In this work, we report the size-fractionated chemical characterization of atmospheric aerosols sampled over a period of a year near an active mining and smelting site in Arizona. Aerosols were characterized with a 10-stage (0.054 to 18 μm aerodynamic diameter) multiple orifice uniform deposit impactor (MOUDI), a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS), and a total suspended particulate (TSP) collector. The MOUDI results show that arsenic and lead concentrations follow a bimodal distribution, with maxima centered at approximately 0.3 and 7.0 μm diameter. We hypothesize that the sub-micron arsenic and lead are the product of condensation and coagulation of smelting vapors. In the coarse size, contaminants are thought to originate as aeolian dust from mine tailings and other sources. Observation of ultrafine particle number concentration (SMPS) show the highest readings when the wind comes from the general direction of the smelting operations site. PMID:23441050

Multiple climate drivers accelerate Arctic plant community senescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

2015-12-01

Alteration of seasonal phenology cues due to climate change has led to changes in the onset and duration of the growing season. While photoperiod often acts as an ultimate control on phenological events, recent studies have shown that environmental cues such as temperature and soil water content can modify the direction and rate of senescence processes. Warmer temperatures have resulted in an observed trend towards delayed senescence across temperate latitudes. However, Arctic regions are characterized by extreme seasonality and rapidly decreasing photoperiod, and consequently senescence may not shift as climate warms. We monitored the timing of Arctic plant community senescence for three years under the framework of an experimental manipulation that altered seasonal phenological cues through warming and earlier snowmelt. Alternative models of senescence were tested to determine if microclimate (air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture) or start of season phenology affect the timing and rate of community senescence. We found that all three microclimate predictors contributed to explaining variation in timing of senescence, suggesting that photoperiod is not the sole control on timing of senescence in Arctic plant communities. Rather, increased air and soil temperatures along with drier soil conditions, led to acceleration in the onset of senescence at a community level. Our data suggest that (1) multiple climate drivers predict timing of plant community senescence, and (2) climate change could result in a shorter peak season due to earlier onset of senescence, which would decrease the potential carbon uptake in moist acidic tundra.

Hot-Fire Testing of 100 LB(sub F) LOX/LCH4 Reaction Control Engine at Altitude Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, William M.; Kleinhenz, Julie E.

2010-01-01

Liquid oxygen/liquid methane (LO2/LCH4 ) has recently been viewed as a potential green propulsion system for both the Altair ascent main engine (AME) and reaction control system (RCS). The Propulsion and Cryogenic Advanced Development Project (PCAD) has been tasked by NASA to develop these green propellant systems to enable safe and cost effective exploration missions. However, experience with LO2/LCH4 as a propellant combination is limited, so testing of these systems is critical to demonstrating reliable ignition and performance. A test program of a 100 lb f reaction control engine (RCE) is underway at the Altitude Combustion Stand (ACS) of the NASA Glenn Research Center, with a focus on conducting tests at altitude conditions. These tests include a unique propellant conditioning feed system (PCFS) which allows for the inlet conditions of the propellant to be varied to test warm to subcooled liquid propellant temperatures. Engine performance, including thrust, c* and vacuum specific impulse (I(sub sp,vac)) will be presented as a function of propellant temperature conditions. In general, the engine performed as expected, with higher performance at warmer propellant temperatures but better efficiency at lower propellant temperatures. Mixture ratio effects were inconclusive within the uncertainty bands of data, but qualitatively showed higher performance at lower ratios.

Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2015-11-01

ratio, and stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.

Water limitations on forest carbon cycling and conifer traits along a steep climatic gradient in the Cascade Mountains, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, L. T.; Law, B. E.

2015-09-01

stem wood density were all correlated with CMIgy . The tight coupling of forest carbon cycling and species traits with water availability suggests that warmer and drier conditions projected for the 21st century could have significant biogeochemical, ecological, and social consequences in the Pacific Northwest.

Benthic foraminifera as indicators of hydrologic and environmental conditions in the Ross Sea (Antarctica)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertoni, E.; Bertello, L.; Capotondi, L.; Bergami, C.; Giglio, F.; Ravaioli, M.; Rossi, C.; Ferretti, A.

2012-04-01

This study, present data on benthic foraminiferal assemblages from four box cores collected in different areas of the Ross Sea during the 2005 oceanographic cruise in the framework of the Italian Antarctic Research National Programme (PNRA). Based on magnetic susceptibility, biosiliceous content, and micropaleontological analysis, the sediment cores provide a record of glacial retreat and Holocene environmental changes in the Ross Sea during the last 11 kyr BP. Sediment lithologies range between diamicton to surficial diatomaceous mud, the intermediate levels being glacial-marine sediment. The sedimentary sections include diatomaceous glacial-marine deposit over transitional (proximal grounding zone) glacial-marine sediment. The study revealed that the Ross Sea contains typical Antarctic foraminifera fauna with the dominance of agglutinated taxa. Relatively elevated abundances, richness and diversity were common in the northernmost site, where the water column was characterized by relatively warmer intermediate waters and by the presence of the colder High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) occupying the deepest part of the basin. Here, the assemblage was dominated by Miliammina arenacea and the more abundant species were Trochammina quadricamerata and Lagenammina difflugiformis. In the southernmost site and in the eastern Ross Sea, richness and diversity were low and the most significant species were Trochammina sp., and Reophax sp. M. arenacea was ubiquitous in all the samples and sites, confirming its tolerance to cold corrosive bottom waters and salinity fluctuations as well as its uniquely high preservation potential. Moreover, elevated abundances, richness and diversity were common in the upper portion of the core which represents the youngest climatic phase characterized by the presence of some calcareous specimens too. This may indicate a deeper Carbonate Compensation Depth, probably due to relatively stable and warmer environmental conditions. Results document

Hydrological risks of a 2.0 oC warmer world: Assessing infrastructure exposure to the Paris Agreement.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paltan, H.; Allen, M. R.; Haustein, K.; Dadson, S. J.

2017-12-01

The Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) in its Paris Agreement in December 2015 agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre- industrial levels. Nonetheless it is not yet clear how hydrological risks would change when this threshold is reached. In consequence, this may have important repercussions to existent or planned infrastructure as their functioning and the service they provide may be undermined if they do not adapt to shifts in water variability and, thus compromising global water security. In this study, we estimate the way in which hydrological risks will differ in a world 2 °C warmer. We used multi-ensembles outputs from 4 general circulation models (AOGCMs) participating in the HAPPI experimental protocol to generate global future river flows. From here we calculate extreme value probabilistics to calculate the increase in the frequency of the 100-year return period flow. Globally, we find that areas such as China and South Asia will be severly affecteed. Additional important changes are detected in Eastern Europe and in the area sorrounding the Gulf of California. Lastly, as a case study we show the implications of this climate target in the hydropower and transport infrastructure of Myanmar. We find that about 40% of mapped hydropower sites are in areas where the historical 100-year return period flow will significantly increase their frequency. We also find that about 30% of the roads and about 35% of the rail network of Myanmar are importantly exposed to such increases. We expect that this study is an initial step to analyse the propagation of hydrological risk associated with the Paris outcome; and thus, offer a tool to detect vulnerable population groups and economic sectors.

High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species

PubMed Central

van der Jeugd, Henk P.; van de Pol, Martijn

2018-01-01

It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits that can predict differences in sensitivity, which in turn can affect the reliability of projections of future climate change impacts. We investigate avian body condition responses to changes in six climatic variables and how consistent and generalisable these responses are both across and within species, using 21 years of data from 46 common passerines across 80 Dutch sites. We show that body condition decreases with warmer spring/early summer temperatures and increases with higher humidity, but other climate variables do not show consistent trends across species. In the future, body condition is projected to decrease by 2050, mainly driven by temperature effects. Strikingly, populations of the same species generally responded just as differently as populations of different species implying that a single species signal is not meaningful. Consequently, species-level traits did not explain interspecific differences in sensitivities, rather population-level traits were more important. The absence of a clear species signal in body condition responses implies that generalisation and identifying species for conservation prioritisation is problematic, which sharply contrasts conclusions of previous studies on the climate sensitivity of phenology. PMID:29466460

Trends in evaporation loss over the UK: 1962 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blyth, Eleanor; Robinson, Emma; Martinez de la Torre, Alberto

2017-04-01

Many models of hydrology assume that an increase in air temperature will result in an increase in evaporation. However, there are some processes involved in transpiration (evaporation through the vegetation) that make the relationship more complicated: in a bid to conserve water, vegetation will reduce their stomata in response to drier soils and warmer drier air which leads to lower transpiration rates despite higher evaporative demands. In addition, the vegetation responds to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide by closing their stomata, and this further reduces the transpiration. The JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) model, used widely in the UK to study the impacts of climate change on the environment, includes many of the processes that are likely to affect changes in water loss and its impact on large scale hydrology. A new assessment of the UK wide water balance for the last 52 years (1961 to 2013) at a 1km grid-scale has been made using this model in a system called CHESS (Climate Hydrology and Ecology research Support System). Some data is available to check the overall water balance. For instance, river flow data can be used at an annual time scale to capture the water balance, while evaporation data from flux towers can be used at some locations around the UK for the few years that it is available to evaluate the seasonal variations of evaporation. Both of these methods provide imperfect but useful evidence. Here we present the results of the modelling exercise and the evaluation: long term increasing evaporation loss trends are clearly present in the model output and these are discussed with respect to the different drivers of change.

Modeling hydrological controls on variations in peat water content, water table depth, and surface energy exchange of a boreal western Canadian fen peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezbahuddin, M.; Grant, R. F.; Flanagan, L. B.

2016-08-01

Improved predictive capacity of hydrology and surface energy exchange is critical for conserving boreal peatland carbon sequestration under drier and warmer climates. We represented basic processes for water and O2 transport and their effects on ecosystem water, energy, carbon, and nutrient cycling in a process-based model ecosys to simulate effects of seasonal and interannual variations in hydrology on peat water content, water table depth (WTD), and surface energy exchange of a Western Canadian fen peatland. Substituting a van Genuchten model (VGM) for a modified Campbell model (MCM) in ecosys enabled a significantly better simulation of peat moisture retention as indicated by higher modeled versus measured R2 and Willmot's index (d) with VGM (R2 0.7, d 0.8) than with MCM (R2 0.25, d 0.35) for daily peat water contents from a wetter year 2004 to a drier year 2009. With the improved peat moisture simulation, ecosys modeled hourly WTD and energy fluxes reasonably well (modeled versus measured R2: WTD 0.6, net radiation 0.99, sensible heat >0.8, and latent heat >0.85). Gradually declining ratios of precipitation to evapotranspiration and of lateral recharge to discharge enabled simulation of a gradual drawdown of growing season WTD and a consequent peat drying from 2004 to 2009. When WTD fell below a threshold of 0.35 m below the hollow surface, intense drying of mosses in ecosys caused a simulated reduction in evapotranspiration and an increase in Bowen ratio during late growing season that were consistent with measurements. Hence, using appropriate water desorption curve coupled with vertical-lateral hydraulic schemes is vital to accurately simulate peatland hydrology and energy balance.

Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, Andrew; Mathews, Adam J.; Holzapfel, Bruno P.

2016-09-01

Carbohydrates are accumulated within the perennial structure of grapevines when their production exceeds the requirements of reproduction and growth. The period between harvest and leaf-fall (the post-harvest period) is a key period for carbohydrate accumulation in relatively warmer grape-growing regions. The level of carbohydrate reserves available for utilisation in the following season has an important effect on canopy growth and yield potential and is therefore an important consideration in vineyard management. In a warming climate, the post-harvest period is lengthening and becoming warmer, evidenced through studies in wine regions worldwide that have correlated recent air temperature increases with changing grapevine phenology. Budbreak, flowering, veraison, and harvest have all been observed to be occurring earlier than in previous decades. Additionally, the final stage of the grapevine phenological cycle, leaf-fall, occurs later. This study explored the potential for increased post-harvest carbohydrate accumulation by modelling heat accumulation following harvest dates for the recent climate (1975-2004) and two warmer climate projections with mean temperature anomalies of +1.26 and +2.61 °C. Summaries of post-harvest heat accumulation between harvest and leaf-fall were produced for each of Australia's Geographical Indications (wine regions) to provide comparisons from the base temperatures to projected warmer conditions across a range of climates. The results indicate that for warmer conditions, all regions observe earlier occurring budbreak and harvest as well as increasing post-harvest growing degree days accumulation before leaf-fall. The level of increase varies depending upon starting climatic condition, with cooler regions experiencing the greatest change.

Differences in Human Versus Lightning Fires with Human Proximity at Two Spatial Scales in Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calef, M. P.; Varvak, A.; McGuire, A. D.

2017-12-01

The boreal forest contains significant amounts of carbon in its biomass and soils and is currently responding to a rapidly changing climate. This is leading to warmer temperatures, drier conditions and larger and more frequent wildfires in western North America. However, the fire regime is also affected by direct human activities through suppression, ignition, and land use changes. Models are important predictive tools for understanding future conditions but they are based on regional generalizations of wildfire behavior and do not account for the complexity of human-fire interactions. In order to achieve a better understanding of the human influence on fires and how human fires differ from lightning fires, we analyzed both in regard to human proximity at two spatial scales (the Fairbanks subregion and Interior Alaska) using ArcGIS and quantitative analysis methods. We found that area burned is increasing across the region at 3% per year and is driven by increase in area burned by lightning while human-caused area burned has been decreasing recently especially in the WUI near Fairbanks. Human fires differed from lightning fires in several ways: they occurred significantly closer to settlements and highways, burned for a shorter duration, and were not as restricted to a brief seasonal window. The fire regime in the much more populated Fairbanks subregion has been altered by human activity: it experienced substantially more human fire ignitions along with a larger area burned though the human influence decreases with distance. This study provides important insights into spatial patterns of human influences on fires and provides useful information for fire modeling and fire management.

Regional signatures of plant response to drought and elevated temperature across a desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Muldavin, Esteban H.; Belnap, Jayne; Peters, Debra P.C.; Anderson, John P.; Reiser, M. Hildegard; Gallo, Kirsten; Melgoza-Castillo, Alicia; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Christiansen, Tim A.

2013-01-01

The performance of many desert plant species in North America may decline with the warmer and drier conditions predicted by climate change models, thereby accelerating land degradation and reducing ecosystem productivity. We paired repeat measurements of plant canopy cover with climate at multiple sites across the Chihuahuan Desert over the last century to determine which plant species and functional types may be the most sensitive to climate change. We found that the dominant perennial grass, Bouteloua eriopoda, and species richness had nonlinear responses to summer precipitation, decreasing more in dry summers than increasing with wet summers. Dominant shrub species responded differently to the seasonality of precipitation and drought, but winter precipitation best explained changes in the cover of woody vegetation in upland grasslands and may contribute to woody-plant encroachment that is widespread throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Temperature explained additional variability of changes in cover of dominant and subdominant plant species. Using a novel empirically based approach we identified ‘‘climate pivot points’’ that were indicative of shifts from increasing to decreasing plant cover over a range of climatic conditions. Reductions in cover of annual and several perennial plant species, in addition to declines in species richness below the long-term summer precipitation mean across plant communities, indicate a decrease in the productivity for all but the most drought-tolerant perennial grasses and shrubs in the Chihuahuan Desert. Overall, our regional synthesis of long-term data provides a robust foundation for forecasting future shifts in the composition and structure of plant assemblages in the largest North American warm desert.

Plant establishment on unirrigated green roof modules in a subtropical climate

PubMed Central

Dvorak, Bruce D.; Volder, Astrid

2012-01-01

Background and aims The application of green roof technology has become more common in the central, northwestern and eastern USA, and is now being employed across the southern USA as well. However, there is little research in the literature that evaluated plant survival on unirrigated green roofs in subtropical climates that experience frequent drought and heat stress. Here, we summarize the results of a study of plant establishment on a modular green roof in south-central Texas. Methodology Fifteen plant species were field tested in 11.4-cm-deep green roof modules on a four-storey building in College Station, Texas, with irrigation limited to the first several weeks of establishment. Climate data, plant growth and species survival were measured over three growing seasons. Principal results Four species survived growing seasons without any losses: Graptopetalum paraguayense, Malephora lutea, Manfreda maculosa and Phemeranthus calycinus. Six species experienced varying levels of mortality: Bulbine frutescens, Delosperma cooperi, Lampranthus spectabilis, Sedum kamtschaticum, Sedum mexicanum and Nassella tenuissima. Five species had no survivors: Dichondra argentea, Stemodia lanata, Myoporum parvifolium, Sedum moranense and Sedum tetractinum. Conclusions The establishment and survival of several plant species without any mortality suggests that irrigation limited to the first few weeks after planting may be an effective approach on green roofs in spite of the more challenging climatic conditions in the southern USA. Since the climate in south-central Texas had been consistently drier and warmer than normal during the study period, longer-term research on these species is recommended to expand knowledge of establishment requirements for these species under a wider range of conditions, including wetter than normal years.

Facilitating climate change assessments by providing easy access to data and decision-support tools on-line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.

2012-12-01

Public land managers are under increasing pressure to consider the potential impacts of climate change but they often lack access to the necessary scientific information and the support to interpret projections. Over 27% of the United States land area are designated as protected areas (e.g. National Parks and Wilderness Areas) including 76,900,000 ha of National Forests areas for which management plans need to be revised to prepare for climate change. Projections of warmer drier conditions raise concerns about extended summer drought, increased fire risks and potential pest/insect outbreaks threatening the carbon sequestration potential of the region as well as late summer water availability. Downscaled climate projections, soil vulnerability indices, and simulated climate change impacts on vegetation cover, fire frequency, carbon stocks, as well as species range shifts, have been uploaded in databasin.org to provide easy access to documented information that can be displayed, shared, and freely manipulated on line. We have uploaded NARCCAP scenarios and provided animations and time series display to look at regional and temporal trends in climate projections. We have uploaded simulation results of vegetation shifts from the global scale to local national parks and shared results with concerned managers. We have used combinations of vegetation models and niche models to evaluate wildlife resilience to future conditions. We have designed fuzzy logic models for ecological assessment projects and made them available on the Data Basin web site. We describe how we have used all this information to quantify climate change vulnerability for a variety of ecosystems, developing new web tools to provide comparative summaries of the various types of spatial and temporal data available for different regions.

Legacy of a half century of Athabasca oil sands development recorded by lake ecosystems

PubMed Central

Kurek, Joshua; Kirk, Jane L.; Muir, Derek C. G.; Wang, Xiaowa; Evans, Marlene S.; Smol, John P.

2013-01-01

The absence of well-executed environmental monitoring in the Athabasca oil sands (Alberta, Canada) has necessitated the use of indirect approaches to determine background conditions of freshwater ecosystems before development of one of the Earth’s largest energy deposits. Here, we use highly resolved lake sediment records to provide ecological context to ∼50 y of oil sands development and other environmental changes affecting lake ecosystems in the region. We show that polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) within lake sediments, particularly C1-C4–alkylated PAHs, increased significantly after development of the bitumen resource began, followed by significant increases in dibenzothiophenes. Total PAH fluxes in the modern sediments of our six study lakes, including one site ∼90 km northwest of the major development area, are now ∼2.5–23 times greater than ∼1960 levels. PAH ratios indicate temporal shifts from primarily wood combustion to petrogenic sources that coincide with greater oil sands development. Canadian interim sediment quality guidelines for PAHs have been exceeded since the mid-1980s at the most impacted site. A paleoecological assessment of Daphnia shows that this sentinel zooplankter has not yet been negatively impacted by decades of high atmospheric PAH deposition. Rather, coincident with increases in PAHs, climate-induced shifts in aquatic primary production related to warmer and drier conditions are the primary environmental drivers producing marked daphniid shifts after ∼1960 to 1970. Because of the striking increase in PAHs, elevated primary production, and zooplankton changes, these oil sands lake ecosystems have entered new ecological states completely distinct from those of previous centuries. PMID:23297215

Surface Ozone Variability and Trends over the South African Highveld from 1990 to 2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balashov, Nikolay V.; Thompson, Anne M.; Piketh, Stuart J.; Langerman, Kristy E.

2014-01-01

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant formed from reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. In this work we examine effects of the climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NOx variability on surface ozone from 1990 to 2007 over the South African Highveld, a heavily populated region in South Africa with numerous industrial facilities. Over summer and autumn (December-May) on the Highveld, El Niño, as signified by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer than normal conditions favoring ozone formation. Conversely, La Niña, or negative SST anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with cloudier and above normal rainfall conditions, hindering ozone production. We use a generalized regression model to identify any linear dependence that the Highveld ozone, measured at five air quality monitoring stations, may have on ENSO and NOx. Our results indicate that four out of the five stations exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to ENSO at some point over the December-May period where El Niño amplifies ozone formation and La Niña reduces ozone formation. Three out of the five stations reveal statistically significant sensitivity to NOx variability, primarily in winter and spring. Accounting for ENSO and NOx effects throughout the study period of 18 years, two stations exhibit statistically significant negative ozone trends in spring, one station displays a statistically significant positive trend in August, and two stations show no statistically significant change in surface ozone.

Sudden changes in environmental conditions do not increase invasion risk in grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruprecht, Eszter; Fenesi, Annamária; Nijs, Ivan

2013-02-01

After direct habitat transformation, biological invasions are considered to be the second most important threat to biodiversity. A better understanding of the factors affecting invasion success in new areas is crucial, and may provide insight into potential control actions. We hypothesized that invasion risk increases in habitats undergoing a sudden change in the disturbance regime or environmental conditions. For testing this assumption we initiated a seed sowing experiment while introducing two novel treatments, mowing twice and fertilizer application, in two grassland sites (one dryer and one mesic) in Romania. The seeds of two invasive species, Solidago canadensis and Rudbeckia laciniata, and two resident natives of similar seed sizes, life-forms and strategies were sowed in treated and control plots, and seed germination, seedling establishment and growth were followed during four months. Contrary to our expectations, there was no difference in the treatment effects on seed germination and seedling establishment between species, while there was on seedling vigour of the larger seeded species in the dryer grassland site, where the native had a higher performance especially in increased nutrient conditions. Indifferently from applied treatments, invasive species had greater cumulative germination in the mesic site, while natives were far more successful in seedling establishment in the drier site. At the same time, seed size was found to be a very important factor explaining germination and establishment success, with large seeded species outperforming small seeded species in any circumstances. Our results call the attention upon management interventions in mesic, productive grassland sites opening colonization windows for the recruitment of those invasive species of which ecological requirements correspond to local environmental conditions.

A high-resolution temporal record of environmental changes in the Eastern Caribbean (Guadeloupe) from 40 to 10 ka BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Aurélien; Malaizé, Bruno; Lécuyer, Christophe; Queffelec, Alain; Charlier, Karine; Caley, Thibaut; Lenoble, Arnaud

2017-01-01

In neotropical regions, fossil bat guano accumulated over time as laminated layers in caves, hence providing a high-resolution temporal record of terrestrial environmental changes. Additionally, cave settings have the property to preserve such organic sediments from processes triggered by winds (deflation, abrasion and sandblasting) and intense rainfall (leaching away). This study reports both stable carbon and nitrogen isotope compositions of frugivorous bat guano deposited in a well-preserved stratigraphic succession of Blanchard Cave on Marie-Galante, Guadeloupe. These isotopic data are discussed with regard to climate changes and its specific impact on Eastern Caribbean vegetation during the Late Pleistocene from 40 to 10 ka cal. BP. Guano δ13C values are higher than modern ones, suggesting noticeable vegetation changes. This provides also evidence for overall drier environmental conditions during the Pleistocene compared to today. Meanwhile, within this generally drier climate, shifts between wetter and drier conditions can be observed. Large temporal amplitudes in both δ13C and δ15N variations reaching up to 5.9‰ and 16.8‰, respectively, also indicate these oceanic tropical environments have been highly sensitive to regional or global climatic forcing. Stable isotope compositions of bat guano deposited from 40 to 35 ka BP, the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger-Dryas reveal relatively wet environmental conditions whereas, at least from the end of the Heinrich event 1 and the Bølling period the region experienced drier environmental conditions. Nevertheless, when considering uncertainties in the model age, the isotopic record of Blanchard Cave show relatively similar variations with known proxy records from the northern South America and Central America, suggesting thus that the Blanchard Cave record is a robust proxy of past ITCZ migration. Teleconnections through global atmospheric pattern suggest that islands of the eastern Caribbean Basin could

Late Cenozoic lacustrine and climatic environments at Tule Lake, northern Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Platt, Bradbury J.

1992-01-01

Cores of lake sediment to a depth of 334 m in the town of Tulelake, Siskiyou County, northern California, document the late Cenozoic paleolimnologic and paleoclimatic history of the northwestern edge of the Great Basin. The cores have been dated by radiometric, tephrochronologic and paleomagnetic analyses. Lacustrine diatoms are abundant throughout the record and document a nearly continuous paleolimnologic history of the Tule Lake basin for the last 3 Myr. During most of this time, this basin (Tule Lake) was a relatively deep, extensive lake. Except for a drier (and cooler?) interval recorded by Fragilaria species about 2.4 Ma, the Pliocene is characterized by a dominance of planktonic Aulacoseira solida implying a warm monomictic lake under a climatic regime of low seasonality. Much of the Pleistocene is dominated by Stephanodiscus and Fragilaria species suggesting a cooler, often drier, and highly variable climate. Benthic diatoms typical of alkaline-enriched saline waters commonly appear after 1.0 Ma, and tephrochronology indicates slow deposition and possible hiatuses between about 0.6 and 0.2 Ma. The chronology of even-numbered oxygen isotope stages approximately matches fluctuations in the abundance of Fragilaria since 800 ka indicating that glacial periods were expressed as drier environments at Tule Lake. Glacial and interglacial environments since 150 ka were distinct from, and more variable than, those occurring earlier. The last full glacial period was very dry, but shortly thereafter Tule Lake became a deep, cool lacustrine system indicating a substantial increase in precipitation. Aulacoseira ambigua characterized the latest glacial and Holocene record of Tule Lake. Its distribution indicates that warmer and wetter climates began about 15 ka in this part of the Great Basin. Diatom concentration fluctuates at 41 000 year intervals between 3.0 and 2.5 Ma and at approximately 100 000 year intervals after 1.0 Ma. In the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene

Bioaccumulation and elimination of mercury in juvenile seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) in a warmer environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maulvault, Ana Luísa, E-mail: aluisa@ipma.pt; Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research; MARE – Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre, Laboratório Marítimo da Guia, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Nossa Senhora do Cabo, 939, 2750-374 Cascais

brain, followed by the muscle and liver. • A warmer environment enhances MeHg bioaccumulation and hampers MeHg elimination. • Ocean warming may compromise seafood safety. • Research combining climate change and pollution effects should be strengthened.« less

A hot future for European droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teuling, Adriaan J.

2018-05-01

Low soil moisture conditions can induce drought but also elevate temperatures. Detailed modelling of the drought-temperature link now shows that rising global temperature will bring drier soils and higher heatwave temperatures in Europe.

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosking, J. Scott; MacLeod, D.; Phillips, T.; Holmes, C. R.; Watson, P.; Shuckburgh, E. F.; Mitchell, D.

2018-05-01

Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

Experimental research on rock fracture failure characteristics under liquid nitrogen cooling conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Feng; Cai, Chengzheng; Yang, Yugui

2018-06-01

As liquid nitrogen is injected into a wellbore as fracturing fluid, it can rapidly absorb heat from warmer rock and generate cryogenic condition in downhole region. This will alter the physical conditions of reservoir rocks and further affect rock failure characteristics. To investigate rock fracture failure characteristics under liquid nitrogen cooling conditions, the fracture features of four types of sandstones and one type of marble were tested on original samples (the sample without any treatment) and cryogenic samples (the samples just taken out from the liquid nitrogen), respectively. The differences between original samples and cryogenic samples in load-displacement curves, fracture toughness, energy evolution and the crack density of ruptured samples were compared and analyzed. The results showed that at elastic deformation stage, cryogenic samples presented less plastic deformation and more obvious brittle failure characteristics than original ones. The average fracture toughness of cryogenic samples was 10.47%-158.33% greater than that of original ones, indicating that the mechanical strength of rocks used were enhanced under cooling conditions. When the samples ruptured, the cryogenic ones were required to absorb more energy and reserve more elastic energy. In general, the fracture degree of cryogenic samples was higher than that of original ones. As the samples were entirely fractured, the crack density of cryogenic samples was about 536.67% at most larger than that of original ones. This indicated that under liquid nitrogen cooling conditions, the stimulation reservoir volume is expected to be improved during fracturing. This work could provide a reference to the research on the mechanical properties and fracture failure of rock during liquid nitrogen fracturing.

Four years of ozone measurements in the Central Amazon - Effects of increasing deforestation rates and different meteorological conditions on near surface concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Stefan; Tsokankunku, Anywhere; Pöhlker, Christopher; Saturno, Jorge; Walter, David; Ditas, Florian; Könemann, Tobias; Ganzeveld, Laurens; Yañez-Serrano, Ana Maria; Souza, Rodrigo; Trebs, Ivonne; Sörgel, Matthias

2017-04-01

The ATTO (Amazon Tall Tower Observatory) site (02°08'38.8''S, 58°59'59.5''W) is located in the remote Amazon rainforest, allowing atmospheric and forest studies away from nearby anthropogenic emission sources. Starting with continuous measurements of vertical mixing ratio profiles of H2O, CO2 and O3 in April 2012 at 8 heights between 0.05 m and 80 m above ground, the longest continuous record of near surface O3 in the Amazon rainforest was established. Black carbon (BC), CO and micrometeorological measurements are available for the same period. During intensive campaigns, NOx was measured as well using the same profile system, and, therefore several month of simultaneous NOx measurements are available. During a period of about four months also direct flux measurements of O3 are available. Here, we analyze the long term and seasonal variability of near surface O3 mixing ratios with respect to air pollution, deposition and transport. The Central Amazon is characterized by a clear seasonal precipitation pattern (ca. 350 mm around March and ca. 80 mm around September), correlating strongly with ozone mixing ratios. Since 2012 deforestation rates have increased again in the Amazon, leading to higher air pollution especially during the drier season in the last years. For several strong pollution events we compared the effects of long and short distance biomass burning on O3 and NOx mixing ratios using back trajectories and satellite data. By comparing O3 mixing ratios with solar radiation, Bowen ratio, several trace gases and aerosol loads (Volatile Organic Compounds, CO and BC), different correlation patterns throughout the year that are linked to the sources (transport of O3 and precursors) and sinks (stomatal uptake and chemical reactions) are investigated. For example, the last months of 2015 were strongly influenced by an extraordinary El Niño phenomenon, leading to much drier conditions and enhanced biomass burning in the Amazon, which prolonged the period of

Climate change impairs processes of soil and plant N cycling in European beech forests on marginal soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, Javier; Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Pole, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Simon, Judy; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Bilela, Silvija; Dannenmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Beech forests of Central Europe are covering large areas with marginal calcareous soils, but provide important ecological services and represent a significant economical value. The vulnerability of these ecosystems to projected climate conditions (higher temperatures, increase of extreme drought and precipitation events) is currently unclear. Here we present comprehensive data on the influence of climate change conditions on ecosystem performance, considering soil nitrogen biogeochemistry, soil microbiology, mycorrhiza ecology and plant physiology. We simultaneously quantified major plant and soil gross N turnover processes by homogenous triple 15N isotope labeling of intact beech natural regeneration-soil-microbe systems. This isotope approach was combined with a space for time climate change experiment, i.e. we transferred intact beech seedling-soil-microbe mesocosms from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Transfers within N slope served as controls. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed. Reduced soil water content resulted in a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB). Consequently, we found a massive five-fold reduction of gross nitrification in the climate change treatment and a subsequent strong decline in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech. Because nitrate was the major nutrient for beech in this forest type with little importance of ammonium and amino acids, this resulted in a strongly reduced performance of beech natural regeneration with reduced N content, N metabolite concentrations and plant biomass. These findings provided an explanation for a large-scale decline of distribution of beech forests on calcareous soils in Europe by almost 80% until 2080 predicted by statistical modeling. Hence, we

Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

2017-07-01

To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

Response of ice cover on shallow Arctic lakes to contemporary climate conditions: Numerical modeling and remote sensing data analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duguay, C.; Surdu, C.; Brown, L.; Samuelsson, P.

2012-04-01

Lake ice cover has been shown to be a robust indicator of climate variability and change. Recent studies have demonstrated that break-up dates, in particular, have been occurring earlier in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere over the last 50 years in response to warmer climatic conditions in the winter and spring seasons. The impacts of trends in air temperature and winter precipitation over the last five decades and those projected by global climate models will affect the timing and duration of ice cover (and ice thickness) on Arctic lakes. This will likely, in turn, have an important feedback effect on energy, water, and biogeochemical cycling in various regions of the Arctic. In the case of shallow tundra lakes, many of which are less than 3-m deep, warmer climate conditions could result in a smaller fraction of lakes that freeze to their bed in winter since thinner ice covers are expected to develop. Shallow lakes of the coastal plain of northern Alaska, and other similar regions of the Arctic, have likely been experiencing changes in seasonal ice thickness (and phenology) over the last few decades but these have not yet been documented. This paper presents results from a numerical lake ice modeling experiment and the analysis of ERS-1/2 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to elucidate the response of ice cover (thickness, freezing to bed, and phenology) on shallow lakes of the North Slope of Alaska (NSA)to climate conditions over the last three decades. New downscaled data specific for the Arctic domain (at a resolution of 0.44 degrees using ERA Interim Reanalysis as boundary condition) produced by the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric model (RCA4) was used to force the Canadian Lake Ice Model (CLIMo) for the period 1979-2010. Output from CLIMo included freeze-up and break-up dates as well as ice thickness on a daily basis. ERS-1/2 data was used to map areas of shallow lakes that freeze to bed and when this happens (timing) in winter for the period 1991

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-Glacial-Holocene Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

2016-01-01

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

2016-02-01

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition.

PubMed

Han, Y M; Peteet, D M; Arimoto, R; Cao, J J; An, Z S; Sritrairat, S; Yan, B Z

2016-02-10

Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

Local and Remote Climate Response to Deforestation in Maritime Continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. C.; Lo, M. H.; Yu, J. Y.

2016-12-01

Deforestation in tropical regions would lead to changes in local energy and moisture budget, resulting in further impacts on regional and global climate. Previous studies have indicated that the reduction of evapotranspiration dominates the influence of tropical deforestation, which causes a warmer and drier climate. Most studies agree that the deforestation leads to an increase in temperature and decline in precipitation over the deforested area. However, unlike Amazon or Africa, Maritime Continent consists of islands surrounded by oceans so the drying effects found in Amazon or Africa may not be the case in Maritime Continent. Thus, our objective is to investigate the local and remote climate responses to deforestation in such unique region. We conduct deforestation experiments using NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and through converting the tropical rainforest into grassland. The preliminary results show that deforestation in Maritime Continent leads to an increase in both temperature and precipitation, which is not predicted by earlier studies. We will further perform moisture budget analysis to explore how the precipitation changes with the deforestation forcing.

Comparison of experimental ponds for the treatment of dye wastewater under controlled and semi-natural conditions.

PubMed

Yaseen, Dina A; Scholz, Miklas

2017-07-01

This study compares the performance of simulated shallow ponds vegetated with Lemna minor L. under controlled and semi-natural conditions for the treatment of simulated wastewater containing textile dyes. The objectives were to assess the water quality outflow parameters, the potential of L. minor concerning the removal of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and four azo dyes (Acid blue 113, reactive blue 198, Direct Orange 46 and Basic Red 46) and the plants' growth rate. Findings show that all mean outflow values of COD, total dissolved solids (TDS) and electrical conductivity (EC) were significantly (p < 0.05) lower within the outdoor compared to the indoor experiment except the dissolved oxygen (DO). The COD removal was low for both experiments. The outflow TDS values were acceptable for all ponds. The pond systems were able to reduce only BR46 significantly (p < 0.05) for the tested boundary conditions. Removals under laboratory conditions were better than those for semi-natural environments, indicating the suitability of operating the pond system as a polishing step in warmer regions. The mean outflow values of zinc and copper were below the thresholds set for drinking and irrigation waters and acceptable for L. minor. The dyes inhibited the growth of the L. minor.

Heightened fire probability in Indonesia in non-drought conditions: the effect of increasing temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Kátia; Verchot, Louis; Baethgen, Walter; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel; Martius, Christopher

2017-05-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This was the case of the events of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated the impact of temperature on fires and found that when the July-October (JASO) period is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature is modest. In contrast, under normal-to-wet conditions, fire probability increases sharply when JASO is anomalously warm. This describes a regime in which an active fire season is not limited to drought years. Greater susceptibility to fires in response to a warmer environment finds support in the high evapotranspiration rates observed in normal-to-wet and warm conditions in Indonesia. We also find that fire probability in wet JASOs would be considerably less sensitive to temperature were not for the added effect of recent positive trends. Near-term regional climate projections reveal that, despite negligible changes in precipitation, a continuing warming trend will heighten fire probability over the next few decades especially in non-drought years. Mild fire seasons currently observed in association with wet conditions and cool temperatures will become rare events in Indonesia.

Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content.

PubMed

González-Alcaraz, M Nazaret; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

2016-12-15

This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20°C vs. 25°C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus. Enchytraeids were exposed for 21d to a dilution series of the agricultural soil with Lufa 2.2 control soil under four climate situations: 20°C+50% WHC (standard conditions), 20°C+30% WHC, 25°C+50% WHC, and 25°C+30% WHC. Survival, reproduction and bioaccumulation of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were obtained as endpoints. Reproduction was more sensitive to both climate factors and metal(loid) pollution. High soil salinity (electrical conductivity~3dSm -1 ) and clay texture, even without the presence of high metal(loid) concentrations, affected enchytraeid performance especially at drier conditions (≥80% reduction in reproduction). The toxicity of the agricultural soil increased at drier conditions (10% reduction in EC10 and EC50 values for the effect on enchytraeid reproduction). Changes in enchytraeid performance were accompanied by changes in As, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn bioaccumulation, with lower body concentrations at drier conditions probably due to greater competition with soluble salts in the case of Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn. This study shows that apart from high metal(loid) concentrations other soil properties (e.g. salinity and texture) may be partially responsible for the toxicity of metal(loid)-polluted soils to soil invertebrates, especially under changing climate conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stronger seasonal adjustment in leaf turgor loss point in lianas than trees in an Amazonian forest.

PubMed

Maréchaux, Isabelle; Bartlett, Megan K; Iribar, Amaia; Sack, Lawren; Chave, Jérôme

2017-01-01

Pan-tropically, liana density increases with decreasing rainfall and increasing seasonality. This pattern has led to the hypothesis that lianas display a growth advantage over trees under dry conditions. However, the physiological mechanisms underpinning this hypothesis remain elusive. A key trait influencing leaf and plant drought tolerance is the leaf water potential at turgor loss point (π tlp ). π tlp adjusts under drier conditions and this contributes to improved leaf drought tolerance. For co-occurring Amazonian tree (n = 247) and liana (n = 57) individuals measured during the dry and the wet seasons, lianas showed a stronger osmotic adjustment than trees. Liana leaves were less drought-tolerant than trees in the wet season, but reached similar drought tolerances during the dry season. Stronger osmotic adjustment in lianas would contribute to turgor maintenance, a critical prerequisite for carbon uptake and growth, and to the success of lianas relative to trees in growth under drier conditions. © 2017 The Author(s).

Developmental Effects of Ocean Acidification Conditions and Elevated Temperature on Homarus Americanus Larvae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcveigh, H.; Waller, J. D.

2016-02-01

The Gulf of Maine is experiencing a rapid warming in sea surface temperature and a marked decrease in pH. This study aimed to quantify the impact of elevated temperature and acidification on the larval development of the iconic American lobster (Homarus americanus). Experimental conditions were reflective of current and IPCC predicted levels of temperature and pCO2 to be reached by the end of the century. Larvae were measured for growth (carapace length), development time, and survivorship over the larval duration. Treatments of elevated temperatures experienced decreased development time across the larval stages of H. americanus. Consequently mortality increased at a significantly higher rate under elevated temperature. An increase in larval mortality may decrease recruitment to the commercial fishery, thus impacting the most valuable single species in the state of Maine. Furthermore, experimental pCO2 treatments yielded a significantly decreased development time between larval stages II and III, yet did not have a significant impact on carapace length or mortality. This study indicates that warmer temperatures may have a greater influence than decreased pH on larval development and survival. Determining how this species may respond to changing climactic conditions will better inform the sustainability efforts of such a critical marine fishery.

Application of the SPARROW model to assess surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wise, Daniel R.; Johnson, Henry M.

2013-01-01

The watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes) was used to estimate mean annual surface-water nutrient conditions (total nitrogen and total phosphorus) and to identify important nutrient sources in catchments of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States for 2002. Model-estimated nutrient yields were generally higher in catchments on the wetter, western side of the Cascade Range than in catchments on the drier, eastern side. The largest source of locally generated total nitrogen stream load in most catchments was runoff from forestland, whereas the largest source of locally generated total phosphorus stream load in most catchments was either geologic material or livestock manure (primarily from grazing livestock). However, the highest total nitrogen and total phosphorus yields were predicted in the relatively small number of catchments where urban sources were the largest contributor to local stream load. Two examples are presented that show how SPARROW results can be applied to large rivers—the relative contribution of different nutrient sources to the total nitrogen load in the Willamette River and the total phosphorus load in the Snake River. The results from this study provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to researchers and water-quality managers performing local nutrient assessments.

Identifying Lagrangian fronts with favourable fishery conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prants, S. V.; Budyansky, M. V.; Uleysky, M. Yu.

2014-08-01

Lagrangian fronts (LFs) in the ocean are defined as boundaries between surface waters with strongly different Lagrangian properties. They can be accurately detected in a given velocity field by computing synoptic maps for displacements of synthetic tracers and other Lagrangian indicators. We use Pacific saury catch and location data for a number of commercial fishery seasons in the region of the northwest Pacific with one of the richest fishery in the world. It is shown statistically that the saury fishing grounds with maximal catches are not randomly distributed over the region but located mainly along the sharp LFs where productive cold waters of the Oyashio Current, warmer waters of the southern branch of the Soya Current, and waters of warm-core Kuroshio rings converge. Computation of those fronts in altimetric geostrophic velocity fields both in the years with the First and Second Oyashio Intrusions shows that in spite of different oceanographic conditions LF locations may serve as good indicators of potential fishing grounds. Possible biophysical reasons for saury aggregation near sharp LFs are discussed. We propose a mechanism for effective export of nutrient rich waters based on stretching of material lines in the vicinity of hyperbolic objects in the ocean. The developed method, based on identifying LFs in any velocity fields, is quite general and may be applied to find potential fishing grounds for the other pelagic fish.

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

PubMed Central

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-01

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987–2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change–driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage. PMID:21220333

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

PubMed

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-25

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

The impact of time and field conditions on brown bear (Ursus arctos) faecal DNA amplification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, M.A.; Kendall, K.C.; Robinson, A.; Waits, L.P.

2007-01-01

To establish longevity of faecal DNA samples under varying summer field conditions, we collected 53 faeces from captive brown bears (Ursus arctos) on a restricted vegetation diet. Each faeces was divided, and one half was placed on a warm, dry field site while the other half was placed on a cool, wet field site on Moscow Mountain, Idaho, USA. Temperature, relative humidity, and dew point data were collected on each site, and faeces were sampled for DNA extraction at <1, 3, 6, 14, 30, 45, and 60 days. Faecal DNA sample viability was assessed by attempting PCR amplification of a mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) locus (???150 bp) and a nuclear DNA (nDNA) microsatellite locus (180-200 bp). Time in the field, temperature, and dew point impacted mtDNA and nDNA amplification success with the greatest drop in success rates occurring between 1 and 3 days. In addition, genotyping errors significantly increased over time at both field sites. Based on these results, we recommend collecting samples at frequent transect intervals and focusing sampling efforts during drier portions of the year when possible. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, A.; Schirrmeister, L.; Tarasov, P.

2009-04-01

A number of permafrost sections dated by 14C, TL, IRSL, and 230U/Th were analysed for pollen. Pollen spectra suggest that wet grass-sedge tundra habitats dominated during an interstadial c. 200-170 ka ago. The climate was rather wet and cold. The pollen spectra reflect sparser grass-sedge vegetation cover during the Late Saalian stadial, c. 170-130 ka BP. Environmental conditions were much more severe compared with the previous interstadial. Open Poaceae and Artemisia communities dominated at the beginning of the Last Interglacial. Some shrubs (Alnus fruticosa, Salix, Betula nana) grew in more protected and wetter places. Climate was rather warm (similar to modern conditions)during this time. Shrub tundra with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana s.l. dominated in the area during the Eemian climatic optimum, when summer temperatures were 4-5°C higher than today. Early Weichselian pollen records reflect harsh environmental conditions; sparser vegetation (mostly grass and sedge communities) during this time. Middle Weichselian (Karginsky) Interstadial records with dominance of Cyperaceae and Poaceae with some Artemisia and Salix reflects tundra- and steppe-like associations with willow shrubs dominated the area. The climate was relatively moist and warm. A rather high content of algae colonies in the sediments indicates shallow water habitats (e.g. centres of ice wedge polygons). Dominance of Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, and Caryophyllaceae pollen with some other herbs is typical for the 40-32 ka BP (climatic optimum) old sediments when open herb dominated the area. High pollen concentrations reflect that dense grass-sedge dominated vegetation; presence of Salix is also characteristic. The records point to climate amelioration during the Middle Weichselian compared to the Early Weichselian. Climate conditions became colder and drier c. 30-26 ka BP. Pollen spectra reflect that sedge-grass-Artemisia with some Caryophyllaceae and Asteraceae dominated the vegetation

A Spatio-Temporal Model of Phenotypic Evolution in the Atlantic Silverside (Menidia menidia) and Its Implications for Size-Selective Fishing in a Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sbrocco, E. J.

2016-02-01

A pervasive phenotypic pattern observed across marine fishes is that vertebral number increases with latitude. Jordan's Rule, as it is known, holds true both within and across species, and like other ecogeographic principles (e.g., Bergmann's Rule), it is presumed to be an adaptive response to latitudinal gradients in temperature. As such, future ocean warming is expected to impact not only the geographic range limits of marine fishes that conform to Jordan's Rule, but also their phenotype, with warmer waters selecting for fish with fewer vertebrae at any given latitude. Here I present a model of phenotypic evolution over space and time for the Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia), a common marine fish found in coastal waters along the western North Atlantic. This species has long served as a model organism for the study of fisheries-induced selection and exhibits numerous latitudinal clines in phenotypic and life-history traits, including vertebral number. Common garden experiments have shown that vertebral number is genetically determined in this species, but correlative models of observed vertebral counts and climate reveal that SST is the single strongest predictor of phenotype, even after accounting for gene flow. This result indicates that natural selection is responsible for maintaining vertebral clines in the silverside, and allows for the prediction of phenotypic responses to ocean warming. By integrating genetic estimates of population connectivity, species distribution models, and statistical models, I find that by the end of the 21st century, ocean warming will select for silversides with up to 8% fewer vertebrae. Mid-Atlantic populations are the most mal-adapted for future conditions, but may be rescued by migration from small-phenotype southern neighbors or by directional selection. Despite smaller temperature anomalies, the strongest impacts of warming will be felt at both northern and southern edges of the distribution, where genetic rescue from

Seasonal Microbial Conditions of Locally Made Yoghurt (Shalom) Marketed in Some Regions of Cameroon

PubMed Central

Moh, Lamye Glory; Keilah, Lunga Paul; Etienne, Pamo Tedonkeng

2017-01-01

The microbial conditions of locally made yoghurt (shalom) marketed in three areas of Cameroon were evaluated during the dry and rainy seasons alongside three commercial brands. A total of ninety-six samples were collected and the microbial conditions were based on total aerobic bacteria (TEB), coliforms, yeasts, and moulds counts as well as the identification of coliforms and yeasts using identification kits. Generally, there was a significant increase (p ≤ 0.05) in total aerobic and coliform counts (especially samples from Bamenda), but a decrease in yeast and mould counts of the same samples during the rainy season when compared to those obtained during the dry season. These counts were mostly greater than the recommended standards. Twenty-one Enterobacteriaceae species belonging to 15 genera were identified from 72 bacterial isolates previously considered as all coliforms. Pantoea sp. (27.77%) was highly represented, found in 41% (dry season) and 50% (rainy season) of samples. In addition, sixteen yeast species belonging to 8 genera were equally identified from 55 yeast isolates and Candida sp. (76.36%) was the most represented. This result suggests that unhygienic practices during production, ignorance, warmer weather, duration of selling, and inadequate refrigeration are the principal causes of higher levels of contamination and unsafe yoghurts. PMID:29423400

Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

1991-01-01

precipitation and runoff from melting snow on frozen or saturated soils (Figure 2). Annual water levels fluctuate widely due to climate variability in the Great Plains (Borchert 1950, Kantrud et al. 1989b). Climate affects the quality of habitat for breeding waterfowl by controlling regional water conditions--water depth, areal extent, and length of wet/dry cycles (Cowardin et al. 1988)--and vegetation patterns such as the cover ration (the ratio of emergent plant cover to open water). With increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate models project warmer and, in some cases, drier conditions for the northern Great Plains (Karl et al. 1991, Manabe and Wetherald 1986, Mitchell 1983, Rind and Lebedeff 1984). In general, a warmer, drier climate could lower waterfowl production directly by increasing the frequency of dry basins and indirectly by producing less favorable cover rations (i.e., heavy emergent cover with few or no open-water areas). The possibility of diminished waterfowl production in a greenhouse climate comes at a time when waterfowl numbers have sharply declined for other reasons (Johnson and Shaffer 1987). Breeding habitat continues to be lost or altered by agriculture, grazing, burning, mowing, sedimentation, and drainage (Kantrud et al. 1989b). For example, it has been estimated that 60% of the wetland area in North Dakota has been drained (Tiner 1984). Pesticides entering wetlands from adjacent agricultural fields have been destructive to aquatic invertebrate populations and have significantly lowered duckling survival (Grue et al. 1988). In this article, we discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns, and waterflow habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model. The

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape.

PubMed

Pilliod, David S; Arkle, Robert S; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie A; Funk, W Chris

2015-09-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900-1930), recent (1981-2010), and future (2071-2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May - September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50-80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Net primary productivity of subalpine meadows in Yosemite National Park in relation to climate variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Peggy E.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Yee, Julie L.; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Cole, David N.; McDougald, Neil K.; Brooks, Matthew L.

2013-01-01

Subalpine meadows are some of the most ecologically important components of mountain landscapes, and primary productivity is important to the maintenance of meadow functions. Understanding how changes in primary productivity are associated with variability in moisture and temperature will become increasingly important with current and anticipated changes in climate. Our objective was to describe patterns and variability in aboveground live vascular plant biomass in relation to climatic factors. We harvested aboveground biomass at peak growth from four 64-m2 plots each in xeric, mesic, and hydric meadows annually from 1994 to 2000. Data from nearby weather stations provided independent variables of spring snow water content, snow-free date, and thawing degree days for a cumulative index of available energy. We assembled these climatic variables into a set of mixed effects analysis of covariance models to evaluate their relationships with annual aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and we used an information theoretic approach to compare the quality of fit among candidate models. ANPP in the xeric meadow was negatively related to snow water content and thawing degree days and in the mesic meadow was negatively related to snow water content. Relationships between ANPP and these 2 covariates in the hydric meadow were not significant. Increasing snow water content may limit ANPP in these meadows if anaerobic conditions delay microbial activity and nutrient availability. Increased thawing degree days may limit ANPP in xeric meadows by prematurely depleting soil moisture. Large within-year variation of ANPP in the hydric meadow limited sensitivity to the climatic variables. These relationships suggest that, under projected warmer and drier conditions, ANPP will increase in mesic meadows but remain unchanged in xeric meadows because declines associated with increased temperatures would offset the increases from decreased snow water content.

Interactive biotic and abiotic regulators of soil carbon cycling: evidence from controlled climate experiments on peatland and boreal soils.

PubMed

Briones, María Jesús I; McNamara, Niall P; Poskitt, Jan; Crow, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J

2014-09-01

Partially decomposed plant and animal remains have been accumulating in organic soils (i.e. >40% C content) for millennia, making them the largest terrestrial carbon store. There is growing concern that, in a warming world, soil biotic processing will accelerate and release greenhouse gases that further exacerbate climate change. However, the magnitude of this response remains uncertain as the constraints are abiotic, biotic and interactive. Here, we examined the influence of resource quality and biological activity on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration under different soil moisture regimes. Organic soils were sampled from 13 boreal and peatland ecosystems located in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Finland and Sweden, representing a natural resource quality range of C, N and P. They were incubated at four temperatures (4, 10, 15 and 20 °C) at either 60% or 100% water holding capacity (WHC). Our results showed that chemical and biological properties play an important role in determining soil respiration responses to temperature and moisture changes. High soil C : P and C : N ratios were symptomatic of slow C turnover and long-term C accumulation. In boreal soils, low bacterial to fungal ratios were related to greater temperature sensitivity of respiration, which was amplified in drier conditions. This contrasted with peatland soils which were dominated by bacterial communities and enchytraeid grazing, resulting in a more rapid C turnover under warmer and wetter conditions. The unexpected acceleration of C mineralization under high moisture contents was possibly linked to the primarily role of fermented organic matter, instead of oxygen, in mediating microbial decomposition. We conclude that to improve C model simulations of soil respiration, a better resolution of the interactions occurring between climate, resource quality and the decomposer community will be required. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Federal climate change programs in the water-limited Southwest: intersection of mission, stakeholders and geography to build successful collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.; Reyes, J. J.; Langston, M. A.; Johnson, K.

2016-12-01

As one of the newest federal programs to emerge in response to climate change, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were established to assist farmers, ranchers and forest landowners in their adaptation and mitigation efforts under a changing climate. The Hubs' mission is to deliver science-based information and tools to agricultural and natural resource land managers, to enable climate-informed decision-making. By facilitating and transferring tools and knowledge, the Hubs also provide value to cooperative extension, land grant institutions, and USDA itself, especially in leveraging existing resource capacity. Various federal agencies (NOAA, USGS, USFWS) have also developed climate change coordination networks: RISAs, CSCs, and LCCs. These regionally-based federal networks can best operate in collaboration with one another. At their programmatic level, however, there are fundamental discrepancies in mission, stakeholder definition and geographic region. In this presentation, we seek to compare and contrast these divergent characteristics by identifying `hot spots' and `hot moments' where definitions, programs, or priorities may intersect due to place-based or event-based issues. The Southwest (SW) region of the United States, which presently operates under warm and dry conditions, is projected to become warmer and drier in the future. On-going drought conditions have presented an opportunity to maintain and build professional networks among these federal climate change coordination networks, as well as within USDA, to better understand impacts and respond to stakeholder needs. Projects in the Rio Grande River Valley and with Tribal nations highlight successful collaboration based on geography and common stakeholders, respectively. Aridity and water scarcity characterize the SW region and provide an overarching theme to better support adaptation and mitigation, as well as create opportunities for collaborative success.

Comparison of microclimate in various land-use systems in Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shekhar Badu, Chandra; Meijide, Ana; Gunawan, Dodo; Knohl, Alexander

2017-04-01

Deforestation and land-use changes are ongoing problems for rain forests in Indonesia. The conversion of forests to monocultures of rubber and oil palm plantations reduces not only biodiversity and carbon pools but also affects canopy structure, which is an important determinant of microclimate. There is, however, a lack of quantitative information characterizing the effect of land transformation on microclimate with a systematic experimental design. Here, we report observations microclimatic conditions (air temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture and soil temperature) on a daily, weekly and seasonal basis across four land-use systems (rain forest, jungle rubber, rubber plantation, oil palm plantation) in two near-by landscapes. The data set covers a period of approximately three years from April 2013 to March 2016 and includes one of the strongest El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the last decades. Mean air temperature, soil temperature, relative humidity, and vapour pressure deficit differed significantly between the four land-use systems whereas the mean soil moisture differed significantly between two landscapes. Air temperature, vapour pressure deficit and soil temperature were highest in oil palm and rubber plantations whereas lowest in forest and jungle rubber. Canopy openness was the most dominant control of microclimatic differences across the land-use systems. During the ENSO 2015, a significant increase in mean air temperature, soil temperature and vapour pressure deficit but a decrease in relative air humidity and soil moisture in all four land-use systems was found. The relative effect of ENSO was highest in forest and jungle rubber compared to rubber and oil palm plantations. In conclusion, conversion of forest to rubber and oil palm plantations has led to substantially warmer and drier microclimatic conditions than before.

Facilitating adaptation in montane plants to changing precipitation along an elevation gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steve; Leopold, Christina

2017-01-01

Montane plant communities throughout the world have responded to changes in precipitation and temperature regimes by shifting ranges upward in elevation. Continued warmer, drier climate conditions have been documented and are projected to increase in high-elevation areas in Hawai‘i, consistent with climate change effects reported in other environments throughout the world. Organisms that cannot disperse or adapt biologically to projected climate scenarios in situ may decrease in distributional range and abundance over time. Restoration efforts will need to accommodate future climate change and account for the interactive effects of existing invasive species to ensure long-term persistence. As part of a larger, ongoing restoration effort, we hypothesized that plants from a lower-elevation forest ecotype would have higher rates of survival and growth compared to high-elevation forest conspecifics when grown in common plots along an elevation gradient. We monitored climate conditions at planting sites to identify whether temperature or rainfall influenced survival and growth after 20 weeks. We found that origin significantly affected survival in only one of three native montane species, Dodonaea viscosa. Contrary to our hypothesis, 75.2% of seedlings from high-elevation origin survived in comparison to 58.7% of seedlings from low elevation across the entire elevation gradient. Origin also influenced survival in linearized mixed models that controlled for temperature, precipitation, and elevation in D. viscosa and Chenopodium oahuense. Only C. oahuense seedlings had similar predictors of growth and survival. There were no common patterns of growth or survival between species, indicating that responses to changing precipitation and emperature regimes varied between montane plant species. Results also suggest that locally sourced seed is important to ensure highest survival at restoration sites. Further experimentation on larger spatial and temporal scales is necessary

Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

2016-01-01

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

Interactive effects between nest microclimate and nest vegetation structure confirm microclimate thresholds for Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Godar, Alixandra J.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.

2016-01-01

The range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) spans 4 unique ecoregions along 2 distinct environmental gradients. The Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion of the Southern High Plains of New Mexico and Texas is environmentally isolated, warmer, and more arid than the Short-Grass, Sand Sagebrush, and Mixed-Grass Prairie ecoregions in Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the northeast panhandle of Texas. Weather is known to influence Lesser Prairie-Chicken nest survival in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion; regional variation may also influence nest microclimate and, ultimately, survival during incubation. To address this question, we placed data loggers adjacent to nests during incubation to quantify temperature and humidity distribution functions in 3 ecoregions. We developed a suite of a priori nest survival models that incorporated derived microclimate parameters and visual obstruction as covariates in Program MARK. We monitored 49 nests in Mixed-Grass, 22 nests in Sand Shinnery Oak, and 30 nests in Short-Grass ecoregions from 2010 to 2014. Our findings indicated that (1) the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion was hotter and drier during incubation than the Mixed- and Short-Grass ecoregions; (2) nest microclimate varied among years within ecoregions; (3) visual obstruction was positively associated with nest survival; but (4) daily nest survival probability decreased by 10% every half-hour when temperature was greater than 34°C and vapor pressure deficit was less than −23 mmHg during the day (about 0600–2100 hours). Our major finding confirmed microclimate thresholds for nest survival under natural conditions across the species' distribution, although Lesser Prairie-Chickens are more likely to experience microclimate conditions that result in nest failures in the Sand Shinnery Oak Prairie ecoregion. The species would benefit from identification of thermal landscapes and management actions that promote cooler, more humid nest microclimates.

A Late Holocene environmental history of a bat guano deposit from Romania: an isotopic, pollen and microcharcoal study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forray, Ferenc L.; Onac, Bogdan P.; Tanţău, Ioan; Wynn, Jonathan G.; Tămaş, Tudor; Coroiu, Ioan; Giurgiu, Alexandra M.

2015-11-01

A 1.5-m-long core from a bat guano deposit in Zidită Cave (western Romania) has provided a 900-year record of environmental change. Shifts in δ13C values of bulk guano (between -22.6 and -27.5‰) combined with guano-sourced pollen and microcharcoal information show significant changes in the structure of vegetation and plant biomass. Cave guano δ13C values reflect the dietary preferences of bats which are controlled by local vegetation dynamics, which in turn depend on local climatic conditions. Neither δ13C values nor pollen association in guano changed strikingly over the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) transition. Instead, an overall decreasing trend of δ13C values between ca. AD 1200 and 1870-1900 defines the duration of LIA. A shift toward cooler and wetter conditions at ca. AD 1500 noticed in the pollen record by an increase in Fagus sylvatica and Alnus and the decrease of Carpinus betulus, may indicate the first major change at the beginning of the LIA. Evidence for two major cold spells occurring around AD 1500 and ca. AD 1870 comes from both δ13C and pollen record. In between these events, the cave region experienced a warmer and drier climate but colder and wetter than the MWP, favouring the expansion of Quercus, Fraxinus and Tilia simultaneously with the decrease of F. sylvatica and Poaceae. Human impact in the studied area is mainly related to agriculture, grazing and deforestation. The effects are most pronounced after AD 1845 when the pollen of cereals increases and Zea is recorded (AD 1845). Higher percentages of microcharcoal particles in the guano sequence are generally correlated with agricultural activities like land cleaning via controlled fires.

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Drought, Fire and Insects in Western US Forests: Observations to Improve Regional Land System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.; Hicke, J. A.; Buotte, P.; Hudiburg, T. W.

2015-12-01

Drought, fire and insects are major disturbances in the western US, and conditions are expected to get warmer and drier in the future. We combine multi-scale observations and modeling with CLM4.5 to examine the effects of these disturbances on forests in the western US. We modified the Community Land Model, CLM4.5, to improve simulated drought-related mortality in forests, and prediction of insect outbreaks under future climate conditions. We examined differences in plant traits that represent species variation in sensitivity to drought, and redefined plant groupings in PFTs. Plant traits, including sapwood area: leaf area ratio and stemwood density were strongly correlated with water availability during the ecohydrologic year. Our database of co-located observations of traits for 30 tree species was used to produce parameterization of the model by species groupings according to similar traits. Burn area predicted by the new fire model in CLM4.5 compares well with recent years of GFED data, but has a positive bias compared with Landsat-based MTBS. Biomass mortality over recent decades increased, and was captured well by the model in general, but missed mortality trends of some species. Comparisons with AmeriFlux data showed that the model with dynamic tree mortality only (no species trait improvements) overestimated GPP in dry years compared with flux data at semi-arid sites, and underestimated GPP at more mesic sites that experience dry summers. Simulations with both dynamic tree mortality and species trait parameters improved estimates of GPP by 17-22%; differences between predicted and observed NEE were larger. Future projections show higher productivity from increased atmospheric CO2 and warming that somewhat offsets drought and fire effects over the next few decades. Challenges include representation of hydraulic failure in models, and availability of species trait and carbon/water process data in disturbance- and drought-impacted regions.

Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide-ranging frog species in an arid landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert S.; Robertson, Jeanne M; Murphy, Melanie; Funk, W. Chris

2015-01-01

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.

Extreme weather conditions reduce the CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obermeier, Wolfgang; Lehnert, Lukas; Kammann, Claudia; Müller, Christoph; Grünhage, Ludger; Luterbacher, Jürg; Erbs, Martin; Yuan, Naiming; Bendix, Jörg

2016-04-01

The increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from anthropogenic activities is the major driver of global climate change. The rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations may stimulate plant photosynthesis and, thus, cause a net sink effect in the global carbon cycle. As a consequence of an enhanced photosynthesis, an increase in the net primary productivity (NPP) of C3 plants (termed CO2 fertilization) is widely assumed. This process is associated with a reduced stomatal conductance of leaves as the carbon demand of photosynthesis is met earlier. This causes a higher water-use efficiency and, hence, may reduce water stress in plants exposed to elevated CO2 concentrations ([eCO2]). However, the magnitude and persistence of the CO2 fertilization effect under a future climate including more frequent weather extremes are controversial. To test the CO2 fertilization effect for Central European grasslands, a data set comprising 16 years of biomass samples and environmental variables such as local weather and soil conditions was analysed by means of a novel approach. The data set was recorded on a "Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment" (FACE) experimental site which allows to quantify the CO2 fertilization effect under naturally occurring climate variations. The results indicate that the CO2 fertilization effect on the aboveground biomass is strongest under local average environmental conditions. Such intermediate regimes were defined by the mean +/- 1 standard deviation of the long-term average in the respective variable three months before harvest. The observed CO2 fertilization effect was reduced or vanished under drier, wetter and hotter conditions when the respective variable exceeded the bounds of the intermediate regimes. Comparable conditions, characterized by a higher frequency of more extreme weather conditions, are predicted for the future by climate projections. Consequently, biogeochemical models may overestimate the future NPP sink

Drying of Floodplain Forests Associated with Water-Level Decline in the Apalachicola River, Florida - Interim Results, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darst, Melanie R.; Light, Helen M.

2007-01-01

Floodplain forests of the Apalachicola River, Florida, are drier in composition today (2006) than they were before 1954, and drying is expected to continue for at least the next 50 years. Drier forest composition is probably caused by water-level declines that occurred as a result of physical changes in the main channel after 1954 and decreased flows in spring and summer months since the 1970s. Forest plots sampled from 2004 to 2006 were compared to forests sampled in the late 1970s (1976-79) using a Floodplain Index (FI) based on species dominance weighted by the Floodplain Species Category, a value that represents the tolerance of tree species to inundation and saturation in the floodplain and consequently, the typical historic floodplain habitat for that species. Two types of analyses were used to determine forest changes over time: replicate plot analysis comparing present (2004-06) canopy composition to late 1970s canopy composition at the same locations, and analyses comparing the composition of size classes of trees on plots in late 1970s and in present forests. An example of a size class analysis would be a comparison of the composition of the entire canopy (all trees greater than 7.5 cm (centimeter) diameter at breast height (dbh)) to the composition of the large canopy tree size class (greater than or equal to 25 cm dbh) at one location. The entire canopy, which has a mixture of both young and old trees, is probably indicative of more recent hydrologic conditions than the large canopy, which is assumed to have fewer young trees. Change in forest composition from the pre-1954 period to approximately 2050 was estimated by combining results from three analyses. The composition of pre-1954 forests was represented by the large canopy size class sampled in the late 1970s. The average FI for canopy trees was 3.0 percent drier than the average FI for the large canopy tree size class, indicating that the late 1970s forests were 3.0 percent drier than pre-1954

Natural convection liquid desiccant loop as an auxiliary air conditioning system: investigating the operational parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazilati, Mohammad Ali; Alemrajabi, Ali Akbar; Sedaghat, Ahmad

2018-03-01

Liquid desiccant air conditioning system with natural convection was presented previously as a new generation of AC systems. The system consists of two three-fluid energy exchangers namely absorber and regenerator in which the action of air dehumidifying and desiccant regeneration is done, respectively. The influence of working parameters on system performance including the heat source and heat sink temperature, concentration of desiccant solution fills the system initially and humidity content of inlet air to regenerator is investigated experimentally. The heat source temperatures of 50 °C and 60 °C, heat sink temperatures of 15 °C and 20 °C and desiccant concentrations of 30% and 34%, are examined here. The inlet air to regenerator has temperature of 38.5 °C and three relative humidity of 14%, 38% and 44%. In all experiments, the inlet air to absorber has temperature of 31 °C and relative humidity of 75%. By inspecting evaluation indexes of system, it is revealed that higher startup desiccant concentration solution is more beneficial for all study cases. It is also observed although the highest/lowest temperature heat source/heat sink is most suitable for best system operation, increasing the heat source temperature should be accompanied with decreasing heat sink temperature. Using drier air stream for regenerator inlet does not necessarily improve system performance; and the air stream with proper value of humidity content should be employed. Finally after running the system in its best working condition, the coefficient of performance (COP) reached 4.66 which verified to be higher than when the same air conditioning task done by a conventional vapor compression system, in which case the COP was 3.38.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raz-Yaseef, Naama; Billesbach, Dave P.; Fischer, Marc L.

The Southern Great Plains are characterized by a fine-scale mixture of different land-cover types, predominantly winter-wheat and grazed pasture, with relatively small areas of other crops, native prairie, and switchgrass. Recent droughts and predictions of increased drought in the Southern Great Plains, especially during the summer months, raise concern for these ecosystems. We measured ecosystem carbon and water fluxes with eddy-covariance systems over cultivated cropland for 10 years, and over lightly grazed prairie and new switchgrass fields for 2 years each. Growing-season precipitation showed the strongest control over net carbon uptake for all ecosystems, but with a variable effect: grassesmore » (prairie and switchgrass) needed at least 350 mm of precipitation during the growing season to become net carbon sinks, while crops needed only 100 mm. In summer, high temperatures enhanced evaporation and led to higher likelihood of dry soil conditions. Therefore, summer-growing native prairie species and switchgrass experienced more seasonal droughts than spring-growing crops. For wheat, the net reduction in carbon uptake resulted mostly from a decrease in gross primary production rather than an increase in respiration. Flux measurements suggested that management practices for crops were effective in suppressing evapotranspiration and decomposition (by harvesting and removing secondary growth), and in increasing carbon uptake (by fertilizing and conserving summer soil water). In light of future projections for wetter springs and drier and warmer summers in the Southern Great Plains, our study indicates an increased vulnerability in native ecosystems and summer crops over time.« less

Vulnerability of crops and native grasses to summer drying in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

DOE PAGES

Raz-Yaseef, Naama; Billesbach, Dave P.; Fischer, Marc L.; ...

2015-08-31

The Southern Great Plains are characterized by a fine-scale mixture of different land-cover types, predominantly winter-wheat and grazed pasture, with relatively small areas of other crops, native prairie, and switchgrass. Recent droughts and predictions of increased drought in the Southern Great Plains, especially during the summer months, raise concern for these ecosystems. We measured ecosystem carbon and water fluxes with eddy-covariance systems over cultivated cropland for 10 years, and over lightly grazed prairie and new switchgrass fields for 2 years each. Growing-season precipitation showed the strongest control over net carbon uptake for all ecosystems, but with a variable effect: grassesmore » (prairie and switchgrass) needed at least 350 mm of precipitation during the growing season to become net carbon sinks, while crops needed only 100 mm. In summer, high temperatures enhanced evaporation and led to higher likelihood of dry soil conditions. Therefore, summer-growing native prairie species and switchgrass experienced more seasonal droughts than spring-growing crops. For wheat, the net reduction in carbon uptake resulted mostly from a decrease in gross primary production rather than an increase in respiration. Flux measurements suggested that management practices for crops were effective in suppressing evapotranspiration and decomposition (by harvesting and removing secondary growth), and in increasing carbon uptake (by fertilizing and conserving summer soil water). In light of future projections for wetter springs and drier and warmer summers in the Southern Great Plains, our study indicates an increased vulnerability in native ecosystems and summer crops over time.« less

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Kumar, A.; Leung, R.; Mariotti, A.; Mo, K.; Schubert, S.; Seager, R.

2013-01-01

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramesh, Nandini; Cane, Mark A.; Seager, Richard; Lee, Dong Eun

2017-10-01

The Tropical Pacific Ocean displays persistently cool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last several years to a decade, with either no El Niño events or a few weak El Niño events. These cause large-scale droughts in the extratropics, including major North American droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, and also modulate the global mean surface temperature. Here we show that two models with different levels of complexity—the Zebiak-Cane intermediate model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1—are able to produce such periods in a realistic manner. We then test the predictability of these periods in the Zebiak-Cane model using an ensemble of experiments with perturbed initial states. Our results show that in most cases the cool mean state is predictable. We then apply this method to make retrospective forecasts of shifts in the decadal mean state and to forecast the mean state of the Tropical Pacific Ocean for the upcoming decade. Our results suggest that the Pacific will undergo a shift to a warmer mean state after the 2015-2016 El Niño. This could imply the cessation of the drier than normal conditions that have generally afflicted southwest North America since the 1997-1998 El Niño, as well as the twenty-first-century pause in global warming. Implications for our understanding of the origins of such persistent cool states and the possibility of improving predictions of large-scale droughts are discussed.

Phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Pohl) Toledo (Melastomataceae), an endangered tree species from rocky savannas, suggests bidirectional expansion due to climate cooling in the Pleistocene

PubMed Central

Collevatti, Rosane Garcia; de Castro, Thaís Guimarães; de Souza Lima, Jacqueline; de Campos Telles, Mariana Pires

2012-01-01

Many endemic species present disjunct geographical distribution; therefore, they are suitable models to test hypotheses about the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms involved in the origin of disjunct distributions in these habitats. We studied the genetic structure and phylogeography of Tibouchina papyrus (Melastomataceae), endemic to rocky savannas in Central Brazil, to test hypothesis of vicariance and dispersal in the origin of the disjunct geographical distribution. We sampled 474 individuals from the three localities where the species is reported: Serra dos Pirineus, Serra Dourada, and Serra de Natividade. Analyses were based on the polymorphisms at cpDNA and on nuclear microsatellite loci. To test for vicariance and dispersal we constructed a median-joining network and performed an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA). We also tested population bottleneck and estimated demographic parameters and time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) using coalescent analyses. A remarkable differentiation among populations was found. No significant effect of population expansion was detected and coalescent analyses showed a negligible gene flow among populations and an ancient coalescence time for chloroplast genome. Our results support that the disjunct distribution of T. papyrus may represent a climatic relict. With an estimated TMRCA dated from ∼836.491 ± 107.515 kyr BP (before present), we hypothesized that the disjunct distribution may be the outcome of bidirectional expansion of the geographical distribution favored by the drier and colder conditions that prevailed in much of Brazil during the Pre-Illinoian glaciation, followed by the retraction as the climate became warmer and moister. PMID:22837846

Coastal fog during summer drought improves the water status of sapling trees more than adult trees in a California pine forest.

PubMed

Baguskas, Sara A; Still, Christopher J; Fischer, Douglas T; D'Antonio, Carla M; King, Jennifer Y

2016-05-01

Fog water inputs can offset seasonal drought in the Mediterranean climate of coastal California and may be critical to the persistence of many endemic plant species. The ability to predict plant species response to potential changes in the fog regime hinges on understanding the ways that fog can impact plant physiological function across life stages. Our study uses a direct metric of water status, namely plant water potential, to understand differential responses of adult versus sapling trees to seasonal drought and fog water inputs. We place these measurements within a water balance framework that incorporates the varying climatic and soil property impacts on water budgets and deficit. We conducted our study at a coastal and an inland site within the largest stand of the regionally endemic bishop pine (Pinus muricata D. Don) on Santa Cruz Island. Our results show conclusively that summer drought negatively affects the water status of sapling more than adult trees and that sapling trees are also more responsive to changes in shallow soil moisture inputs from fog water deposition. Moreover, between the beginning and end of a large, late-season fog drip event, water status increased more for saplings than for adults. Relative to non-foggy conditions, we found that fog water reduces modeled peak water deficit by 80 and 70 % at the inland and coastal sites, respectively. Results from our study inform mechanistically based predictions of how population dynamics of this and other coastal species may be affected by a warmer, drier, and potentially less foggy future.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2008-04-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Spatial Patterns of Soil Organic Carbon in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliss, N. B.

2005-12-01

The Department of the Interior (DOI) has jurisdiction influencing approximately 22 percent of the land area of the United States. The poster presents estimates of the current stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) on all lands and Federal lands. The DOI lands have about 22 percent of the nation's SOC, so the average carbon intensity (8.66 kg C m-2) about matches the average for all lands (8.81 kg C m-2). However the carbon on DOI lands is not evenly distributed. Of the 17.76 Petagrams (1 Pg = 1015 grams) of SOC on DOI lands, 13.07 Pg (74 percent) are in Alaska, and 4.69 Pg (26 percent) are in the Conterminous U.S. The Alaska soils are wetter and colder than the national average, and the DOI lands in the conterminous U.S. are warmer and drier than the average. A set of SOC maps is shown, developed by intersecting the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database with data on federal lands from the National Atlas. With 22 percent of the nation's soil carbon, the DOI lands are important in a national accounting of greenhouse gas emission and sequestration. Future behavior of these lands is uncertain, but in scenarios of warming or drying, carbon released by respiration may exceed carbon captured by photosynthesis, resulting in a net release of carbon to the atmosphere. If warming stimulates a net release of greenhouse gases, this represents a positive feedback contributing to future global warming, a very unstable condition for the global climate system.

Impact of climate change on cold hardiness of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii): environmental and genetic considerations.

PubMed

Bansal, Sheel; St Clair, J Bradley; Harrington, Constance A; Gould, Peter J

2015-10-01

The success of conifers over much of the world's terrestrial surface is largely attributable to their tolerance to cold stress (i.e., cold hardiness). Due to an increase in climate variability, climate change may reduce conifer cold hardiness, which in turn could impact ecosystem functioning and productivity in conifer-dominated forests. The expression of cold hardiness is a product of environmental cues (E), genetic differentiation (G), and their interaction (G × E), although few studies have considered all components together. To better understand and manage for the impacts of climate change on conifer cold hardiness, we conducted a common garden experiment replicated in three test environments (cool, moderate, and warm) using 35 populations of coast Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii) to test the hypotheses: (i) cool-temperature cues in fall are necessary to trigger cold hardening, (ii) there is large genetic variation among populations in cold hardiness that can be predicted from seed-source climate variables, (iii) observed differences among populations in cold hardiness in situ are dependent on effective environmental cues, and (iv) movement of seed sources from warmer to cooler climates will increase risk to cold injury. During fall 2012, we visually assessed cold damage of bud, needle, and stem tissues following artificial freeze tests. Cool-temperature cues (e.g., degree hours below 2 °C) at the test sites were associated with cold hardening, which were minimal at the moderate test site owing to mild fall temperatures. Populations differed 3-fold in cold hardiness, with winter minimum temperatures and fall frost dates as strong seed-source climate predictors of cold hardiness, and with summer temperatures and aridity as secondary predictors. Seed-source movement resulted in only modest increases in cold damage. Our findings indicate that increased fall temperatures delay cold hardening, warmer/drier summers confer a degree of cold

Macroalgal response to a warmer ocean with higher CO2 concentration.

PubMed

Hernández, Celso A; Sangil, Carlos; Fanai, Alessandra; Hernández, José Carlos

2018-05-01

Primary production and respiration rates were studied for six seaweed species (Cystoseira abies-marina, Lobophora variegata, Pterocladiella capillacea, Canistrocarpus cervicornis, Padina pavonica and Corallina caespitosa) from Subtropical North-East Atlantic, to estimate the combined effects of different pH and temperature levels. Macroalgal samples were cultured at temperature and pH combinations ranging from current levels to those predicted for the next century (19, 21, 23, 25 °C, pH: 8.1, 7.7 and 7.4). Decreased pH had a positive effect on short-term production of the studied species. Raised temperatures had a more varied and species dependent effect on short term primary production. Thermophilic algae increased their production at higher temperatures, while temperate species were more productive at lower or present temperature conditions. Temperature also affected algal respiration rates, which were higher at low temperature levels. The results suggest that biomass and productivity of the more tropical species in coastal ecosystems would be enhanced by future ocean conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-proxy paleolimnological reconstruction of Holocene climate conditions in the Great Basin, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinemann, Scott A.; Porinchu, David F.; Bloom, Amy M.; Mark, Bryan G.; Box, Jason E.

2009-11-01

A sediment core spanning ˜ 7000 cal yr BP recovered from Stella Lake, a small sub-alpine lake located in Great Basin National Park, Nevada, was analyzed for subfossil chironomids (non-biting midges), diatoms, and organic content (estimated by loss-on-ignition (LOI)). Subfossil chironomid analysis indicates that Stella Lake was characterized by a warm, middle Holocene, followed by a cool "Neoglacial" period, with the last two millennia characterized by a return to warmer conditions. Throughout the majority of the core the Stella Lake diatom-community composition is dominated by small, periphytic taxa which are suggestive of shallow, cool, alkaline, oligotrophic waters with extensive seasonal ice cover. A reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed by applying a midge-based inference model for MJAT (two-component WA-PLS) consisting of 79 lakes and 54 midge taxa ( rjack2 = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). Comparison of the chironomid-inferred temperature record to existing regional paleoclimate reconstructions suggests that the midge-inferred temperatures correspond well to regional patterns. This multi-proxy record provides valuable insight into regional Holocene climate and environmental conditions by providing a quantitative reconstruction of peak Holocene warmth and aquatic ecosystem response to these changes in the Great Basin, a region projected to experience increased aridity and higher temperatures.

Mismatch in microbial food webs: predators but not prey perform better in their local biotic and abiotic conditions.

PubMed

Parain, Elodie C; Gravel, Dominique; Rohr, Rudolf P; Bersier, Louis-Félix; Gray, Sarah M

2016-07-01

Understanding how trophic levels respond to changes in abiotic and biotic conditions is key for predicting how food webs will react to environmental perturbations. Different trophic levels may respond disproportionately to change, with lower levels more likely to react faster, as they typically consist of smaller-bodied species with higher reproductive rates. This response could cause a mismatch between trophic levels, in which predators and prey will respond differently to changing abiotic or biotic conditions. This mismatch between trophic levels could result in altered top-down and bottom-up control and changes in interaction strength. To determine the possibility of a mismatch, we conducted a reciprocal-transplant experiment involving Sarracenia purpurea food webs consisting of bacterial communities as prey and a subset of six morphologically similar protozoans as predators. We used a factorial design with four temperatures, four bacteria and protozoan biogeographic origins, replicated four times. This design allowed us to determine how predator and prey dynamics were altered by abiotic (temperature) conditions and biotic (predators paired with prey from either their local or non-local biogeographic origin) conditions. We found that prey reached higher densities in warmer temperature regardless of their temperature of origin. Conversely, predators achieved higher densities in the temperature condition and with the prey from their origin. These results confirm that predators perform better in abiotic and biotic conditions of their origin while their prey do not. This mismatch between trophic levels may be especially significant under climate change, potentially disrupting ecosystem functioning by disproportionately affecting top-down and bottom-up control.

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate.

PubMed

Pessarrodona, Albert; Moore, Pippa J; Sayer, Martin D J; Smale, Dan A

2018-06-03

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal-dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests-one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic-along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm-water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year -1 . This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate-driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of

Response of testate amoebae to a late Holocene ecosystem shift in an Amazonian peatland.

PubMed

Swindles, Graeme T; Kelly, Thomas J; Roucoux, Katherine H; Lawson, Ian T

2018-06-01

To date there have only been two studies using testate amoebae as palaeoecological indicators in tropical peatlands. Here we present a new ∼500-year testate amoeba record from San Jorge, a domed peatland in Peruvian Amazonia, which has a well-constrained vegetation history based on pollen analysis. We observe a major shift from Hyalosphenia subflava to Cryptodifflugia oviformis-dominated communities at ∼50 cm depth (c. AD 1760), which suggests a change to drier conditions in the peatland. The application of a statistical transfer function also suggests a deepening of the water table at this time. The transition in the microbial assemblage occurs at a time when pollen and geochemical data indicate drier conditions (reduced influence of river flooding), leading to an ecosystem switch to more ombrotrophic-like conditions in the peatland. Our work illustrates the potential of testate amoebae as important tools in tropical peatland palaeoecology, and the power of multiproxy approaches for understanding the long-term development of tropical peatlands. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Impact of Warmer Seasons on the Incidence of Renal Colic and Kidney Stone Disease: Evidence from a Systematic Review of Literature.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Proietti, Silvia; Traxer, Olivier; Archer, Matthew; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-08-01

Several studies have examined the link between temperature or monthly seasonal variations and urolithiasis. The majority of these studies have demonstrated a link between higher ambient monthly temperatures and the incidence of renal colic and kidney stone disease (KSD). However, a worldwide trend on this association has not been explored and we perform a systematic review to examine the effect of seasonal variations on renal colic and KSD. A systematic review of the literature for a 26-year period (1990-2017) was conducted on all studies reporting on the effect of seasonal variations and its link to KSD. Two reviewers independently extracted the data from each study, which were analyzed using SPSS version 24. A total of 59 studies were identified, and after screening, 13 were included in this review. The studies ranged in duration from 1 to 9 years (mean: 5.5 years) and included seasonal/monthly variations for proven stones or lithotripsy treatments or emergency department presentations with renal colic. Except for one study, there was a statistically significant association between higher monthly mean temperatures and the incidence of KSD-related events reported from the United Kingdom, South Korea, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Japan, and New Zealand. Worldwide trends on the incidence of renal colic and KSD seem be affected by seasonal variation favoring warmer months, with data suggesting that higher ambient temperature has an association with KSD.

Effects of breathing pattern and inspired air conditions on breath condensate volume, pH, nitrite, and protein concentrations.

PubMed

McCafferty, J B; Bradshaw, T A; Tate, S; Greening, A P; Innes, J A

2004-08-01

The effects of breathing pattern and inspired air conditions on the volume and content of exhaled breath condensate (EBC) were investigated. Total exhaled water (TEW), EBC volume, pH, nitrite and protein concentrations were measured in three groups of 10 healthy subjects breathing into a condenser at different target minute ventilations (Vm), tidal volumes (Vt), and inspired air conditions. The volumes of both TEW and EBC increased significantly with Vm. For Vm 7.5, 15 and 22.5 l/min, mean (SD) EBC was 627 (258) microl, 1019 (313) microl, and 1358 (364) microl, respectively (p<0.001) and TEW was 1879 (378) microl, 2986 (496) microl, and 4679 (700) microl, respectively (p<0.001). TEW was significantly higher than EBC, reflecting a condenser efficiency of 40% at a target Vm of 7.5 l/min which reduced to 29% at Vm 22.5 l/min. Lower Vt gave less TEW than higher Vt (26.6 v 30.7 microl/l, mean difference 4.1 (95% CI 2.6 to 5.6), p<0.001) and a smaller EBC volume (4.3 v 7.6 microl/l, mean difference 3.4 (95% CI 2.3 to 4.5), p<0.001). Cooler and drier inspired air yielded less water vapour and less breath condensate than standard conditions (p<0.05). Changes in the breathing pattern had no effect on EBC protein and nitrite concentrations and pH. These results show that condensate volume can be increased by using high Vt and increased Vm without compromising the dilution of the sample.

Terrestrial and marine records of climatic and environmental changes during the Pliocene in subtropical Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Cronin, T. M.; Ishman, S.E.; Litwin, R.J.

1993-01-01

Pollen, ostracode, and benthic foraminifer assemblages deposited during sea-level highstands in subtropical Florida record a climate change during the period 4.5-1.0 Ma. Before 3.5 Ma, open-shelf marine faunas and pollen assemblages with abundant Pinus, Quercus, Fagus, Carya, and nonarboreal pollen were present, indicating cooler conditions than today. From ~3.5 to 1.0 Ma, marine and terrestrial records indicate warmer conditions, similar to those existing in south Florida today. Combined with evidence for much warmer than modern conditions at high latitudes, these data suggest that increased poleward oceanic heat transport, possibly related to the emergence of the Central American isthmus between ~3.5 and 2.5 Ma, was a major influence on mid-Pliocene warmth. -Authors

Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Tana E.; Cavaleri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.

2012-01-01

, heterotrophic versus autotrophic respiration, thermal acclimation versus substrate limitation of plant and microbial communities, below-ground C allocation, species composition (plant and microbial), and the hydraulic architecture of roots. Whether or not tropical forests will become a source or a sink of C in a warmer world remains highly uncertain. Given the importance of these ecosystems to the global C budget, resolving this uncertainty is a primary research priority.

Cylindrospermopsin degradation in sediments--the role of temperature, redox conditions, and dissolved organic carbon.

PubMed

Klitzke, Sondra; Fastner, Jutta

2012-04-01

One possible consequence of increasing water temperatures due to global warming in middle Europe is the proliferation of cylindrospermopsin-producing species from warmer regions. This may lead to more frequent and increased cylindrospermopsin (CYN) concentrations in surface waters. Hence, efficient elimination of CYN is important where contaminated surface waters are used as a resource for drinking water production via sediment passage. Sediments are often characterized by a lack of oxygen and low temperature (i.e. approx. 10 °C). The presence of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is not only known to enhance but also to retard contaminant degradation by influencing the extent of lag phases. So far CYN degradation has only been investigated under oxic conditions and at room temperature. Therefore, the aim of our experiments was to understand CYN degradation, focusing on the effects of i) anoxic conditions, ii) low temperature (i.e. 10 °C) in comparison to room temperature (23±4 °C) and iii) DOC on lag phases. We used two natural sandy sediments (virgin and preconditioned) and surface water to conduct closed-loop column experiments. Anoxic conditions either inhibited CYN degradation completely or retarded CYN breakdown in comparison to oxic conditions (T(1/2) (oxic)=2.4 days, T(1/2) (anoxic)=23.6 days). A decrease in temperature from 20 °C to 10 °C slowed down degradation rates by a factor of 10. The presence of DOC shortened lag phases in virgin sediments at room temperature but induced a lag phase in preconditioned sediments at 10 °C, indicating potential substrate competition. These results show that information on physico-chemical conditions in sediments is crucial to assess the risk of CYN breakthrough. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Would behavioral thermoregulation enable pregnant viviparous tropical lizards to cope with a warmer world?

PubMed

López-Alcaide, Saúl; Nakamura, Miguel; Smith, Eric N; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2017-09-01

Sceloporus lizards depend on external heat to achieve their preferred temperature (T sel ) for performing physiological processes. Evidence both in the field and laboratory indicates that pregnant females of this Genus select body temperatures (T b ) lower than 34 °C as higher temperatures may be lethal to embryos. Therefore, thermoregulation is crucial for successful embryo development. Given the increase in global air temperature, it is expected that the first compensatory response of species that inhabit tropical climates will be behavioral thermoregulation. We tested whether viviparous Sceloporus formosus group lizards in the wild exhibited differences in thermoregulatory behavior to achieve the known T sel for developing embryos regardless of local thermal conditions. We quantified field active body temperature, thermoregulatory behavior mechanisms (time of sighting, microhabitat used and basking time) and available microhabitat thermal conditions (i.e. operative temperature) for 10 lizard species during gestation, distributed along an altitudinal gradient. We applied both conventional and phylogenic analyses to explore whether T b or behavioral thermoregulation could be regulated in response to different thermal conditions. These species showed no significant differences in field T b during gestation regardless of local thermal conditions. In contrast, they exhibited significant differences in their behavioral thermoregulation associated with local environmental conditions. Based on these observations, the differences in thermoregulatory behavior identified are interpreted as compensatory adjustments to local thermal conditions. We conclude that these species may deal with higher temperatures predicted for the tropics by modulating their thermoregulatory behavior. © 2017 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

2012-04-01

Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

Hypoxia tolerance of common sole juveniles depends on dietary regime and temperature at the larval stage: evidence for environmental conditioning.

PubMed

Zambonino-Infante, José L; Claireaux, Guy; Ernande, Bruno; Jolivet, Aurélie; Quazuguel, Patrick; Sévère, Armelle; Huelvan, Christine; Mazurais, David

2013-05-07

An individual's environmental history may have delayed effects on its physiology and life history at later stages in life because of irreversible plastic responses of early ontogenesis to environmental conditions. We chose a marine fish, the common sole, as a model species to study these effects, because it inhabits shallow marine areas highly exposed to environmental changes. We tested whether temperature and trophic conditions experienced during the larval stage had delayed effects on life-history traits and resistance to hypoxia at the juvenile stage. We thus examined the combined effect of global warming and hypoxia in coastal waters, which are potential stressors to many estuarine and coastal marine fishes. Elevated temperature and better trophic conditions had a positive effect on larval growth and developmental rates; warmer larval temperature had a delayed positive effect on body mass and resistance to hypoxia at the juvenile stage. The latter suggests a lower oxygen demand of individuals that had experienced elevated temperatures during larval stages. We hypothesize that an irreversible plastic response to temperature occurred during early ontogeny that allowed adaptive regulation of metabolic rates and/or oxygen demand with long-lasting effects. These results could deeply affect predictions about impacts of global warming and eutrophication on marine organisms.

2012 Mississippi Valley Uniform Regional Barley Nursery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

It was a much better year for the barley nursery than last year when only four locations were able to contribute useable data for the report. Much drier weather prevailed during this growing season. The reader is referred to the "Nursery Conditions" section immediately following thi...

76 FR 61599 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Revised Critical Habitat for the Marbled Murrelet

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-05

..., which suggests that forest type influences murrelet occurrence, rather than absolute distance from the... zone, and not the distance from the coast. This is probably due to the maritime climate that provides... hotter, drier climate. This rapid transition to less favorable conditions for murrelets may explain why...

Reconciling spatial and temporal soil moisture effects on afternoon rainfall

PubMed Central

Guillod, Benoit P.; Orlowsky, Boris; Miralles, Diego G.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2015-01-01

Soil moisture impacts on precipitation have been strongly debated. Recent observational evidence of afternoon rain falling preferentially over land parcels that are drier than the surrounding areas (negative spatial effect), contrasts with previous reports of a predominant positive temporal effect. However, whether spatial effects relating to soil moisture heterogeneity translate into similar temporal effects remains unknown. Here we show that afternoon precipitation events tend to occur during wet and heterogeneous soil moisture conditions, while being located over comparatively drier patches. Using remote-sensing data and a common analysis framework, spatial and temporal correlations with opposite signs are shown to coexist within the same region and data set. Positive temporal coupling might enhance precipitation persistence, while negative spatial coupling tends to regionally homogenize land surface conditions. Although the apparent positive temporal coupling does not necessarily imply a causal relationship, these results reconcile the notions of moisture recycling with local, spatially negative feedbacks. PMID:25740589

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

PubMed

Agne, Michelle C; Beedlow, Peter A; Shaw, David C; Woodruff, David R; Lee, E Henry; Cline, Steven P; Comeleo, Randy L

2018-02-01

Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

Environmental Humidity Regulates Effects of Experimental Warming on Vegetation Index and Biomass Production in an Alpine Meadow of the Northern Tibet

PubMed Central

Fu, Gang; Shen, Zhen Xi

2016-01-01

Uncertainty about responses of vegetation index, aboveground biomass (AGB) and gross primary production (GPP) limits our ability to predict how climatic warming will influence plant growth in alpine regions. A field warming experiment was conducted in an alpine meadow at a low (4313 m), mid- (4513 m) and high elevation (4693 m) in the Northern Tibet since May 2010. Growing season vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil temperature (Ts) and air temperature (Ta) decreased with increasing elevation, while growing season precipitation, soil moisture (SM), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), AGB and GPP increased with increasing elevation. The growing season Ta, Ts and VPD in 2015 was greater than that in 2014, while the growing season precipitation, SM, NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP in 2015 was lower than that in 2014, respectively. Compared to the mean air temperature and precipitation during the growing season in 1963–2015, it was a warmer and wetter year in 2014 and a warmer and drier year in 2015. Experimental warming increased growing season Ts, Ta,VPD, but decreased growing season SM in 2014–2015 at all the three elevations. Experimental warming only reduced growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP at the low elevation in 2015. Growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP increased with increasing SM and precipitation, but decreased with increasing VPD, indicating vegetation index and biomass production increased with environmental humidity. The VPD explained more variation of growing season NDVI, SAVI, AGB and GPP compared to Ts, Ta and SM at all the three elevations. Therefore, environmental humidity regulated the effect of experimental warming on vegetation index and biomass production in alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau. PMID:27798690

Stoichiometry and temperature sensitivity of methanogenesis and CO 2 production from saturated polygonal tundra in Barrow, Alaska

DOE PAGES

Roy Chowdhury, Taniya; Herndon, Elizabeth M.; Phelps, Tommy J.; ...

2014-11-26

Arctic permafrost ecosystems store ~50% of global belowground carbon (C) that is vulnerable to increased microbial degradation with warmer active layer temperatures and thawing of the near surface permafrost. We used anoxic laboratory incubations to estimate anaerobic CO2 production and methanogenesis in active layer (organic and mineral soil horizons) and permafrost samples from center, ridge and trough positions of water-saturated low-centered polygon in Barrow Environmental Observatory, Barrow AK, USA. Methane (CH4) and CO2 production rates and concentrations were determined at 2, +4, or +8 C for 60 day incubation period. Temporal dynamics of CO2 production and methanogenesis at 2 Cmore » showed evidence of fundamentally different mechanisms of substrate limitation and inhibited microbial growth at soil water freezing points compared to warmer temperatures. Nonlinear regression better modeled the initial rates and estimates of Q10 values for CO2 that showed higher sensitivity in the organic-rich soils of polygon center and trough than the relatively drier ridge soils. Methanogenesis generally exhibited a lag phase in the mineral soils that was significantly longer at 2 C in all horizons. Such discontinuity in CH4 production between 2 C and the elevated temperatures (+4 and +8 C) indicated the insufficient representation of methanogenesis on the basis of Q10 values estimated from both linear and nonlinear models. Production rates for both CH4 and CO2 were substantially higher in organic horizons (20% to 40% wt. C) at all temperatures relative to mineral horizons (<20% wt. C). Permafrost horizon (~12% wt. C) produced ~5-fold less CO2 than the active layer and negligible CH4. High concentrations of initial exchangeable Fe(II) and increasing accumulation rates signified the role of iron as terminal electron acceptors for anaerobic C degradation in the mineral horizons.« less

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming

2016-01-01

Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

PubMed

Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

2016-11-15

We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Windblown Dust and Air Quality Under a Changing Climate in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharratt, B. S.; Tatarko, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Fox, F.; Huggins, D. R.

2016-12-01

Wind erosion is a concern for sustainable agriculture and societal health in the US Pacific Northwest. Indeed, wind erosion continues to cause exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for PM10 in the region. Can we expect air quality to deteriorate or improve as climate changes? Will wind erosion escalate in the future under a warmer and drier climate as forecast for Australia, southern prairies of Canada, northern China, and United States Corn Belt and Colorado Plateau? To answer these questions, we used 18 global climate models, cropping systems simulation model (CropSyst), and the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) to simulate the complex interactions among climate, crop production, and wind erosion. These simulations were carried out in eastern Washington where wind erosion of agricultural lands contribute to poor air quality in the region. Our results suggest that an increase in temperature and CO2 concentration, coupled with nominal increases in precipitation, will enhance biomass production and reduce soil and PM10 losses by the mid-21st century. This study reveals that climate change may reduce the risk of wind erosion and improve air quality in the Inland Pacific Northwest.

Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

2017-12-01

The nested regional climate/mesoscale modelling system developed by the authors is applied to the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System global model outputs to project future changes of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China region. Results show that the modelling system is capable of reproducing the current TC landfall climatology, although it exhibits a noticeable southward bias of TC activity of in the western North Pacific. Future projections show a continuous northward migration of TC activity in the western North Pacific throughout the twenty-first century. Fewer TCs making landfall in South China are projected in the late century, but these landfalling TCs tend to be more intense. Investigations in the large-scale environment suggest that despite warmer sea surface temperature and weaker vertical wind shear, the drier and less cyclonic lower atmosphere all-season is responsible for the reduced TC activity. However, once a TC is formed, the environment it stays in is as wet as today and so it can intensify further than the present-day TCs. Inter-annual variability is also explored, and the influence of the ENSO variation appears to be smaller.

Natural disturbance reduces disease risk in endangered rainforest frog populations

PubMed Central

Roznik, Elizabeth A.; Sapsford, Sarah J.; Pike, David A.; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A.

2015-01-01

Natural disturbances can drive disease dynamics in animal populations by altering the microclimates experienced by hosts and their pathogens. Many pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture, and therefore small changes in habitat structure can alter the microclimate in ways that increase or decrease infection prevalence and intensity in host populations. Here we show that a reduction of rainforest canopy cover caused by a severe tropical cyclone decreased the risk of endangered rainforest frogs (Litoria rheocola) becoming infected by a fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Reductions in canopy cover increased the temperatures and rates of evaporative water loss in frog microhabitats, which reduced B. dendrobatidis infection risk in frogs by an average of 11–28% in cyclone-damaged areas, relative to unaffected areas. Natural disturbances to the rainforest canopy can therefore provide an immediate benefit to frogs by altering the microclimate in ways that reduce infection risk. This could increase host survival and reduce the probability of epidemic disease outbreaks. For amphibian populations under immediate threat from this pathogen, targeted manipulation of canopy cover could increase the availability of warmer, drier microclimates and therefore tip the balance from host extinction to coexistence. PMID:26294048

Natural disturbance reduces disease risk in endangered rainforest frog populations.

PubMed

Roznik, Elizabeth A; Sapsford, Sarah J; Pike, David A; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

2015-08-21

Natural disturbances can drive disease dynamics in animal populations by altering the microclimates experienced by hosts and their pathogens. Many pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture, and therefore small changes in habitat structure can alter the microclimate in ways that increase or decrease infection prevalence and intensity in host populations. Here we show that a reduction of rainforest canopy cover caused by a severe tropical cyclone decreased the risk of endangered rainforest frogs (Litoria rheocola) becoming infected by a fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Reductions in canopy cover increased the temperatures and rates of evaporative water loss in frog microhabitats, which reduced B. dendrobatidis infection risk in frogs by an average of 11-28% in cyclone-damaged areas, relative to unaffected areas. Natural disturbances to the rainforest canopy can therefore provide an immediate benefit to frogs by altering the microclimate in ways that reduce infection risk. This could increase host survival and reduce the probability of epidemic disease outbreaks. For amphibian populations under immediate threat from this pathogen, targeted manipulation of canopy cover could increase the availability of warmer, drier microclimates and therefore tip the balance from host extinction to coexistence.

Deforestation changes land-atmosphere interactions across South American biomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, Alvaro; Katzfey, Jack; Thatcher, Marcus; Syktus, Jozef; Wong, Kenneth; McAlpine, Clive

2016-04-01

South American biomes are increasingly affected by land use/land cover change. However, the climatic impacts of this phenomenon are still not well understood. In this paper, we model vegetation-climate interactions with a focus on four main biomes distributed in four key regions: The Atlantic Forest, the Cerrado, the Dry Chaco, and the Chilean Matorral ecosystems. We applied a three member ensemble climate model simulation for the period 1981-2010 (30 years) at 25 km resolution over the focus regions to quantify the changes in the regional climate resulting from historical deforestation. The results of computed modelling experiments show significant changes in surface fluxes, temperature and moisture in all regions. For instance, simulated temperature changes were stronger in the Cerrado and the Chilean Matorral with an increase of between 0.7 and 1.4 °C. Changes in the hydrological cycle revealed high regional variability. The results showed consistent significant decreases in relative humidity and soil moisture, and increases in potential evapotranspiration across biomes, yet without conclusive changes in precipitation. These impacts were more significant during the dry season, which resulted to be drier and warmer after deforestation.

Microgeographic genome size differentiation of the carob tree, Ceratonia siliqua, at 'Evolution Canyon', Israel.

PubMed

Bures, Petr; Pavlícek, Tomás; Horová, Lucie; Nevo, Eviatar

2004-05-01

We tested whether the local differences in genome size recorded earlier in the wild barley, Hordeum spontaneum, at 'Evolution Canyon', Mount Carmel, Israel, can also be found in other organisms. As a model species for our test we chose the evergreen carob tree, Ceratonia siliqua. Genome size was measured by means of DAPI flow cytometry. In adults, significantly more DNA was recorded in trees growing on the more illuminated, warmer, drier, microclimatically more fluctuating 'African' south-facing slope than in trees on the opposite, less illuminated, cooler and more humid, 'European' north-facing slope in spite of an interslope distance of only 100 m at the canyon bottom and 400 m at the top. The amount of DNA was significantly negatively correlated with leaf length and tree circumference. In seedlings, interslope differences in the amount of genome DNA were not found. In addition, the first cases of triploidy and tetraploidy were found in C. siliqua. The data on C. siliqua at 'Evolution Canyon' showed that local variability in the C-value exists in this species and that ecological stress might be a strong evolutionary driving force in shaping the amount of DNA.

Environmental change and cultural adaptation in the southern Caucasus: latest results from Aghitu-3 Cave, Armenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandel, Andrew; Gasparyan, Boris; Bruch, Angela; Nahapetyan, Samvel; Weissbrod, Lior

2014-05-01

The well stratified locality of Aghitu-3 Cave in the southern Caucasus provides a glimpse into the daily lives of the earliest known Upper Paleolithic inhabitants of Armenia. With three main phases of sedimentation serving as a backdrop to human settlement, the locality provides an excellent stratigraphic record documenting environmental change between about 40,000 and 24,000 cal BP. From the end of MIS 3 with its warm and humid climate, early modern humans made use of the cave with increasing frequency during the colder and drier MIS 2. People produced stone tools from obsidian and chert, hunted medium sized ungulates and equids, and used bone tools to make clothing. The archaeological finds from Aghitu-3 suggest that mobile groups of Upper Paleolithic people used this high altitude (1601 m) cave as a seasonal camp with increasing frequency over time. Carnivores and birds of prey also made use of the cave, likely when humans were not present. The paleoenvironmental indicators confirm a warmer and more humid climate during the first sedimentary phase between about 40,000 and 33,000 cal BP. At about 35,000 cal BP the pollen profile indicates a vegetation of mixed deciduous and steppic species. The presence of green algae supports the interpretation that more humid conditions prevailed. Geological analysis indicates uniform, fine-grained deposition along the banks of a slow moving stream. This and the general lack of rock falls confirm a warmer and more humid climate. The spectrum of micromammals shows a higher proportion of golden hamster, also supporting a favorable climate. However, starting about 33,000 cal BP, we observe a second phase of deposition characterized by coarser sediment with evidence of rill washing, cycles of erosion and frequent large basalt rock falls. These observations suggest a dramatic cooling trend as the climate began to deteriorate. The third depositional phase starts about 29,000 cal BP and is marked by mainly aeolian deposition

Learning to Be Drier in Dryland Country

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Erica; Campbell, Coral

2009-01-01

This research project, part of a much larger study, considered how people in regional communities learnt to deal with the impact of reduced water availability as a result of drought or climate change. The communities in the Mallee-Wimmera region of Victoria, Australia, were the focus of this study and a range of local people from different sectors…

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

Drier climate and productivity of operational poplar plantation - four years of throughfall exclusion experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsag, M.; Fischer, M.; Trnka, M.

2016-12-01

The production of woody biomass in short rotation woody coppice (SRWC) is considered as a suitable source of renewable energy for climate conditions prevailing in central European countries. The productivity of SRWC is largely dependent on the environmental conditions and the biomass yield can be severely compromised when water supply is limited. One of the climate change consequences predicted for Central Europe is the increasing frequency and duration of drought spells as a result of increased air temperature and temporally uneven distribution of precipitation. Therefore, a small-scale rain-throughfall exclusion experiment was established in 2011 in an operational SRWC plantation (hybrid poplar NM6) in the Bohemian-Moravian highlands (Czech Republic). Three times replicated experimental block comprised a treatment with 70 % rain-throughfall exclusion (R) and an adjacent control treatment (C) of the same size (25 m2). Above-ground biomass productivity (ABP) and soil moisture patterns were measured and evaluated during growing seasons 2011-2015. We observed high heterogeneity of soil moisture among blocks, resulting in high variability in ABP. The treatment effect was more pronounced with increasing seasonal precipitation. Generally, the R treatments showed lower ABP by 8.4 %, higher mortality by 6.7 % and strong competitive relationships among neighboring trees, which led to formation of few dominant trees, comprising 30 % of the total biomass at particular plot, accounting for 50 % of the annual ABP per 25 m2 plot. Our results suggests considerable resilience of hybrid poplar NM6 to decreased soil-water availability over long-term, while keeping minimal annual ABP of about 4.5 ton hectare (dry matter).

Estimation of thermal sensation during varied air temperature conditions.

PubMed

Katsuura, T; Tabuchi, R; Iwanaga, K; Harada, H; Kikuchi, Y

1998-03-01

Seven male students were exposed to four varied air temperature environments: hot (37 degrees C) to neutral (27 degrees C) (HN), neutral to hot (NH), cool (17 degrees C) to neutral (CN), and neutral to cool (NC). The air temperature was maintained at the first condition for 20 min, then was changed to the second condition after 15 min and was held there for 20 min. Each subject wore a T-shirt, briefs, trunks, and socks. Each sat on a chair and was continuously evaluated for thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and air velocity sensation. Some physiological and thermal parameters were also measured every 5 s during the experiment. The correlation between thermal sensation and skin temperature at 15 sites was found to be poor. The subjects felt much warmer during the rising phase of the air temperature (CN, NH) than during the descending phase (HN, NC) at a given mean skin temperature. However, thermal sensation at the same heat flux or at the same value of the difference between skin and air temperature (delta(Tsk - Ta)) was not so different among the four experimental conditions, and the correlation between thermal sensation and heat flux or delta(Tsk - Ta) was fairly good. The multiple regression equation of the thermal sensation (TS) on 15 sites of skin temperature (Tsk; degrees C) was calculated and the coefficient of determination (R*2) was found to be 0.656. Higher coefficients of determination were found in the equations of thermal sensation for the heat flux (H; kcal.m-2.h-1) at the right and left thighs of the subjects and on delta(Tsk - Ta) (degrees C) at 4 sites. They were as follows: TS = 2.04 - 0.016 Hright - 0.036 Hleft; R*2 = 0.717, TS = 1.649 + 0.013 delta(Tsk - Ta)UpperArm - 0.036 delta(Tsk - Ta)Chest - 0.223 delta(Tsk - Ta)Thigh-0.083 delta(Tsk - Ta)LowerLeg; R*2 = 0.752, respectively.

Model based paleoclimate interpretations of Holocene oxygen isotope records from the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinman, B. A.; Pompeani, D. P.; Abbott, M. B.; Ortiz, J. D.; Stansell, N.; Mihindukulasooriya, L. N.; Hillman, A. L.; Finkenbinder, M. S.

2015-12-01

Oxygen isotope measurements of authigenic carbonate from Cleland Lake (British Columbia), Paradise Lake (British Columbia), and Lime Lake (Washington) provide an ~9,000 year Holocene record of precipitation-evaporation balance variations in the Pacific Northwest. Both Cleland Lake and Paradise Lake are small, surficially closed-basin systems with no active inflows or outflows. Lime Lake is surficially open with a seasonally active overflow. We sampled the lake sediment cores at 1-60 mm intervals (~3-33 years per sample on average) and measured the isotopic composition of fine-grained, authigenic CaCO3 in each sample. Negative δ18O values, which indicate wetter conditions in closed-basin lakes, occur in Cleland Lake and Paradise Lake sediment during the mid-Holocene and are followed by more positive δ18O values, which suggest drier conditions, in the late Holocene. The δ18O record from Lime Lake, which principally reflects changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation, exhibits less variability than the closed-basin lake records and follows an increasing trend from the mid-Holocene to present. Power spectrum analysis of the Cleland Lake δ18O data from 1,000 yr BP to present demonstrates significant periodicities of ~6 and ~67 years that likely reflect the enhancement of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the late Holocene with an associated multidecadal (i.e., 50 to 70 yr) component of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Results from mid-Holocene (6,000 yr BP) climate model simulations conducted as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) indicate that in much of western North America, the cold season was wetter, and the warm season (April-September) was considerably drier (relative to the late Holocene), leading to an overall drier climate in western North America but with enhanced hydroclimatic seasonality. This is consistent with inferences from the Cleland and Paradise Lake δ18O records, which lake

Mesozoic paleogeography and paleoclimates - A discussion of the diverse greenhouse and hothouse conditions of an alien world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holz, Michael

2015-08-01

The Mesozoic was the time of the break-up of Pangaea, with profound consequences not only for the paleocontinental configuration, but also for paleoclimates and for the evolution of life. Cool greenhouse conditions alternated with warm greenhouse and even hothouse conditions, with global average temperatures around 6-9 °C warmer than the present ones. There are only sparse and controversial evidence for polar ice; meanwhile, extensive evaporitic and desertic deposits are well described. Global sea levels were mainly high, and the content of atmospheric O2 was varying between 15 and 25%. These conditions make the Mesozoic Earth an alien world compared to present-day conditions. Degassing from volcanism linked to the rifting process of Pangaea and methane emissions from reptilian biotas were climate-controlling factors because they enhanced atmospheric CO2 concentrations up to 16 times compared to present-day levels. The continental break-up modified paleopositions and shoreline configurations of the landmasses, generating huge epicontinental seas and altering profoundly the oceanic circulation. The Mesozoic was also a time of important impact events as probable triggers for "impact winters"; and for the Era at least nine huge (diameter > 20 km) impact structures are known. This paper presents an abridged but updated overview of the Mesozoic paleogeographic and paleoclimatic variations, characterizing each period and sub-period in terms of paleoclimatic state and main tectonic and climatic events, and provides a brief geologic, stratigraphic, paleoclimatic and taphonomic characterization of dinosaur occurrences as recorded in the Brazilian continental basins.

Evaluating the effects of bedding materials and elevated platforms on contact dermatitis and plumage cleanliness of commercial broilers and on litter condition in broiler houses.

PubMed

Kaukonen, E; Norring, M; Valros, A

2017-10-01

1. Experiment 1, comparing wood shavings and ground straw bedding with peat, was performed on 7 broiler farms over two consecutive batches during the winter season. Experiment 2, assessing the effect of elevated (30 cm) platforms, was conducted in three farms replicated with 6 consecutive batches. 2. Footpad lesions were inspected at slaughter following the Welfare Quality® (WQ) assessment and official programme. Hock lesions, plumage cleanliness and litter condition were assessed using the WQ assessment. Litter height, pH, moisture and ammonia were determined. 3. Footpad condition on wood shavings appeared to be worse compared with peat using both methods of assessment and was accompanied by inferior hock skin health. WQ assessment resulted in poorer footpad and hock skin condition on ground straw compared with peat. Farms differed in footpad and hock skin condition. Footpad and hock lesions were not affected by platform treatment. Peat appeared more friable than ground straw. The initial pH of wood shavings was higher and moisture was lower than in peat, but at the end of production period there were no differences. Ground straw exhibited higher initial and lower end pH, and was drier in the beginning than peat. Litter condition and quality were not affected by platform treatment. 4. This study provides new knowledge about the applicability of peat as broiler bedding and shows no negative effects of elevated platforms on litter condition or the occurrence of contact dermatitis in commercial environments. The results suggest a complicated relationship between litter condition, moisture and contact dermatitis. Furthermore, it is concluded that the farmer's ability to manage litter conditions is important, regardless of the chosen litter material. Peat bedding was beneficial for footpad and hock skin health compared with wood shavings and ground straw.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response

Late Holocene vegetation and ocean variability in the Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Charlotte S.; Leroy, Suzanne A. G.; Collins, Philip E. F.; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.

2016-07-01

Fossil pollen and dinocyst records in marine sequences are frequently combined to reveal the response of vegetation and ocean conditions to changes in both regional and global climate. In this study we analysed pollen and dinocysts within a clearly-laminated sediment core off the Iranian coast in the Gulf of Oman, an extremely data-poor area, to reconstruct climatic change during the Late Holocene (last 1900 years). The vegetation record from southern Iran indicates a replacement of savannah by desert formations at c. 910 CE, shortly after the Islamic invasion and the subsequent collapse of the Sassanid Empire. From c. 910 to 1145 CE, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the vegetation was heavily dominated by desert formations, such as Amaranthaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, Centaurea and Calligonum. In parallel, in the Gulf of Oman, the presence of Impagidinium paradoxum indicates a lack of freshwater discharge into the ocean around this time. The desert taxa of the MCA were subsequently replaced by savannah formations at c. 1145 CE, comprised mainly of Poaceae and Cyperaceae, corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), indicating generally wetter climatic conditions. A sudden increase in Spiniferites ramosus (1-63%), at c. 1440 CE suggests an increase in the strength of the SW summer monsoon, with increased freshwater discharge into the ocean at this time. Our data indicate that over the past two millennia the NW Arabian Sea region has alternated between contrasting climatic conditions, with firstly a humid phase equivalent to the cultural period of the Sassanid Empire, a significantly drier climate during the MCA and a relatively wetter climate during the LIA. The mechanisms resulting in dry conditions during the MCA in the Middle East associated with the northward shift of the ITCZ and the intensification of the Indian summer monsoon may be similar to those causing the dry conditions which dominated the Early Holocene in the Near East. Our

Warming Ocean Conditions Relate to Increased Trophic Requirements of Threatened and Endangered Salmon

PubMed Central

Daly, Elizabeth A.; Brodeur, Richard D.

2015-01-01

The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined during 19 survey years (1981–1985; 1998–2011). Juvenile salmon consumed distinct highly piscivorous diets in cold and warm ocean regimes with major differences between ocean regimes driven by changes in consumption of juvenile rockfishes, followed by several other fish prey, adult euphausiids and decapod larvae. Notable, Chinook salmon consumed 30% more food in the warm versus cold ocean regime in both May and June. Additionally, there were about 30% fewer empty stomachs in the warm ocean regime in May, and 10% fewer in warm June periods. The total prey energy density consumed during the warmer ocean regime was also significantly higher than in cold. Chinook salmon had lower condition factor and were smaller in fork length during the warm ocean regime, and were longer and heavier for their size during the cold ocean regime. The significant increase in foraging during the warm ocean regime occurred concurrently with lower available prey biomass. Adult return rates of juvenile Chinook salmon that entered the ocean during a warm ocean regime were lower. Notably, our long term data set contradicts the long held assertion that juvenile salmon eat less in a warm ocean regime when low growth and survival is observed, and when available prey are reduced. Comparing diet changes between decades under variable ocean conditions may assist us in understanding the effects of projected warming ocean regimes on juvenile Chinook salmon and their survival in the ocean environment. Bioenergetically, the salmon appear to require more food resources during warm ocean regimes. PMID:26675673

Warming Ocean Conditions Relate to Increased Trophic Requirements of Threatened and Endangered Salmon.

PubMed

Daly, Elizabeth A; Brodeur, Richard D

2015-01-01

The trophic habits, size and condition of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) caught early in their marine residence were examined during 19 survey years (1981-1985; 1998-2011). Juvenile salmon consumed distinct highly piscivorous diets in cold and warm ocean regimes with major differences between ocean regimes driven by changes in consumption of juvenile rockfishes, followed by several other fish prey, adult euphausiids and decapod larvae. Notable, Chinook salmon consumed 30% more food in the warm versus cold ocean regime in both May and June. Additionally, there were about 30% fewer empty stomachs in the warm ocean regime in May, and 10% fewer in warm June periods. The total prey energy density consumed during the warmer ocean regime was also significantly higher than in cold. Chinook salmon had lower condition factor and were smaller in fork length during the warm ocean regime, and were longer and heavier for their size during the cold ocean regime. The significant increase in foraging during the warm ocean regime occurred concurrently with lower available prey biomass. Adult return rates of juvenile Chinook salmon that entered the ocean during a warm ocean regime were lower. Notably, our long term data set contradicts the long held assertion that juvenile salmon eat less in a warm ocean regime when low growth and survival is observed, and when available prey are reduced. Comparing diet changes between decades under variable ocean conditions may assist us in understanding the effects of projected warming ocean regimes on juvenile Chinook salmon and their survival in the ocean environment. Bioenergetically, the salmon appear to require more food resources during warm ocean regimes.