Managing fire and fuels in a warmer climate

Treesearch

David L. Peterson

2010-01-01

This historical perspective on fire provides a window into the future of fire in the Pacific Northwest. Although fire will always be more common in the interior portion of the region, a warmer climate could bring more fire to the westside of the Cascade Range where summers are typically dry and will probably become drier. If future climate resembles the climate now...

Summer diapause induced by high temperatures in the oriental tobacco budworm: ecological adaptation to hot summers.

PubMed

Liu, Zhudong; Xin, Yucui; Zhang, Yanan; Fan, Jianting; Sun, Jianghua

2016-06-07

Summer diapause in Helicoverpa assulta (Hübner), which prolongs the pupal stage, particularly in males, is induced by high temperatures. In the laboratory, 3(rd)-, 4(th)-, 6(th)-instar and prepupal larvae were exposed to high temperatures - 33 and 35 °C with a photoperiod of LD16:8 - until pupation to induce summer diapause. The results showed that the incidence of summer diapause was influenced by temperature, stage exposed, and sex. The higher the temperature, the more often summer diapause was attained. Sixth-instar and prepupal larvae were the sensitive stages for summer diapause induction. H. assulta summer-diapausing pupae needed diapause development to resume development when temperatures became favorable. Furthermore, both body mass and energy storage capacity (lipid and glycogen) were significantly affected by diapause rather than sex, and were significantly higher in summer-diapausing pupae than in non-diapausing pupae. In addition, the body mass loss and respiration rate showed that the rate of metabolism in the summer-diapausing pupae was consistently lower than in non-diapausing pupae, which were significantly affected by diapause and pupal age. We conclude that summer diapause in H. assulta is a true diapause, and H. assulta has evolved mechanisms to accumulate energy storage and to lower its metabolism to adapt to hot summers.

Summer diapause induced by high temperatures in the oriental tobacco budworm: ecological adaptation to hot summers

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhudong; Xin, Yucui; Zhang, Yanan; Fan, Jianting; Sun, Jianghua

2016-01-01

Summer diapause in Helicoverpa assulta (Hübner), which prolongs the pupal stage, particularly in males, is induced by high temperatures. In the laboratory, 3rd-, 4th-, 6th-instar and prepupal larvae were exposed to high temperatures – 33 and 35 °C with a photoperiod of LD16:8 – until pupation to induce summer diapause. The results showed that the incidence of summer diapause was influenced by temperature, stage exposed, and sex. The higher the temperature, the more often summer diapause was attained. Sixth-instar and prepupal larvae were the sensitive stages for summer diapause induction. H. assulta summer-diapausing pupae needed diapause development to resume development when temperatures became favorable. Furthermore, both body mass and energy storage capacity (lipid and glycogen) were significantly affected by diapause rather than sex, and were significantly higher in summer-diapausing pupae than in non-diapausing pupae. In addition, the body mass loss and respiration rate showed that the rate of metabolism in the summer-diapausing pupae was consistently lower than in non-diapausing pupae, which were significantly affected by diapause and pupal age. We conclude that summer diapause in H. assulta is a true diapause, and H. assulta has evolved mechanisms to accumulate energy storage and to lower its metabolism to adapt to hot summers. PMID:27271223

Warm Mediterranean mid-Holocene summers inferred from fossil midge assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Joos, Fortunat; Renssen, Hans; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Tinner, Willy

2017-02-01

Understanding past climate trends is key for reliable projections of global warming and associated risks and hazards. Uncomfortably large discrepancies between vegetation-based summer temperature reconstructions (mainly based on pollen) and climate model results have been reported for the current interglacial, the Holocene. For the Mediterranean region these reconstructions indicate cooler-than-present mid-Holocene summers, in contrast with expectations based on climate models and long-term changes in summer insolation. We present new quantitative and replicated Holocene summer temperature reconstructions based on fossil chironomid midges from the northern central Mediterranean region. The Holocene thermal maximum is reconstructed 9,000-5,000 years ago and estimated to have been 1-2 °C warmer in mean July temperature than the recent pre-industrial period, consistent with glacier and marine records, and with transient climate model runs. This combined evidence implies that widely used pollen-based summer temperature reconstructions in the Mediterranean area are significantly biased by precipitation or other forcings such as early land use. Our interpretation can resolve the previous discrepancy between climate models and quantitative palaeotemperature records for millennial-scale Holocene summer temperature trends in the Mediterranean region. It also suggests that pollen-based evidence for cool mid-Holocene summers in other semi-arid to arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere may have to be reconsidered, with potential implications for global-scale reconstructions.

Increased ocean heat transports and warmer climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Chandler, M.

1991-01-01

The impact of an increased ocean heat transport on climate is investigated in the framework of the GISS GMC model described by Hansen et al. (1983), using two scenarios: one starting from warmer polar temperatures/no sea ice and the other from the current ocean conditions. A 20-percent increase in cross-equatorial heat transport was sufficient to melt all sea ice; it resulted in a climate that was 2 C warmer for the global average, with values some 20-deg warmer at high altitudes and 1-deg warmer near the equator. It is suggested that the hydrological and dynamical changes associated with this different climate regime may be self-sustaining and, as such, would account for the high-latitude warmth of climates in the Mesozoic and Tertiary periods and the decadenal-scale climate fluctuations during the Holocene.

Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

2014-12-01

This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought.

PubMed

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F; Fisher, Joshua B; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Richardson, Andrew D; Scott, Russell L; Law, Beverly E; Litvak, Marcy E; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Peters, Wouter; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T

2016-05-24

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

PubMed Central

Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Scott, Russell L.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Peters, Wouter

2016-01-01

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. PMID:27114518

Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought

DOE PAGES

Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; ...

2016-04-25

The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less

Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

2017-06-01

Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Weih, M.

2014-12-01

Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

Comparison of the performance of battery-operated fluid warmers.

PubMed

Lehavi, Amit; Yitzhak, Avraham; Jarassy, Refael; Heizler, Rami; Katz, Yeshayahu Shai; Raz, Aeyal

2018-06-07

Warming intravenous fluids is essential to prevent hypothermia in patients with trauma, especially when large volumes are administered. Prehospital and transport settings require fluid warmers to be small, energy efficient and independent of external power supply. We compared the warming properties and resistance to flow of currently available battery-operated fluid warmers. Fluid warming was evaluated at 50, 100 and 200 mL/min at a constant input temperature of 20°C and 10°C using a cardiopulmonary bypass roller pump and cooler. Output temperature was continuously recorded. Performance of fluid warmers varied with flows and input temperatures. At an input temperature of 20°C and flow of 50 mL/min, the Buddy Lite, enFlow, Thermal Angel and Warrior warmed 3.4, 2.4, 1 and 3.6 L to over 35°C, respectively. However, at an input temperature of 10°C and flow of 200 mL/min, the Buddy Lite failed to warm, the enFlow warmed 3.3 L to 25.7°C, the Thermal Angel warmed 1.5 L to 20.9°C and the Warrior warmed 3.4 L to 34.4°C (p<0.0001). We found significant differences between the fluid warmers: the use of the Buddy Lite should be limited to moderate input temperature and low flow rates. The use of the Thermal Angel is limited to low volumes due to battery capacity and low output temperature at extreme conditions. The Warrior provides the best warming performance at high infusion rates, as well as low input temperatures, and was able to warm the largest volumes in these conditions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Studying the Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Polar Summer Mesosphere Warming in 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Feofilov, Artem; Pesnell, William; Kutepov, Alexander A.

2010-01-01

It has been found that the northern summer polar mesopause region in 2002 was warmer than normal and of shorter duration than for other years analyzed. Theoretical studies have implied that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these processes for polar summer periods of 2002-2009. For background, SABER is a broadband limb scanning radiometer that measures a large number of minor atmospheric constituents as well as pressure and temperature in the 13-110 km altitude range over most of the globe.We will use SABER temperature data to illustrate the correlated heating seen between the southern and northern hemispheres during June and July 2002. We will then describe the approach to study the wave characteristics of the atmospheric temperature profiles and demonstrate the features that were unique for 2002 compared to the other years.

Coupled long-term summer warming and deeper snow alters species composition and stimulates gross primary productivity in tussock tundra.

PubMed

Leffler, A Joshua; Klein, Eric S; Oberbauer, Steven F; Welker, Jeffrey M

2016-05-01

Climate change is expected to increase summer temperature and winter precipitation throughout the Arctic. The long-term implications of these changes for plant species composition, plant function, and ecosystem processes are difficult to predict. We report on the influence of enhanced snow depth and warmer summer temperature following 20 years of an ITEX experimental manipulation at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Winter snow depth was increased using snow fences and warming was accomplished during summer using passive open-top chambers. One of the most important consequences of these experimental treatments was an increase in active layer depth and rate of thaw, which has led to deeper drainage and lower soil moisture content. Vegetation concomitantly shifted from a relatively wet system with high cover of the sedge Eriophorum vaginatum to a drier system, dominated by deciduous shrubs including Betula nana and Salix pulchra. At the individual plant level, we observed higher leaf nitrogen concentration associated with warmer temperatures and increased snow in S. pulchra and B. nana, but high leaf nitrogen concentration did not lead to higher rates of net photosynthesis. At the ecosystem level, we observed higher GPP and NEE in response to summer warming. Our results suggest that deeper snow has a cascading set of biophysical consequences that include a deeper active layer that leads to altered species composition, greater leaf nitrogen concentration, and higher ecosystem-level carbon uptake.

Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

2015-04-01

Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

Evidence for lower plasticity in CTMAX at warmer developmental temperatures.

PubMed

Kellermann, Vanessa; Sgrò, Carla M

2018-06-07

Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CT MAX ) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CT MAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CT MAX and egg-to-adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26-28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CT MAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CT MAX . Although small shifts in CT MAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

2016-09-01

This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

Tracing the Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 Using TIMED/SABER Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard; Feoflow, Artem; Pesnell, Dean; Kutepov, Alexander

2010-01-01

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above the mesospheric maximum was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 deg. S to 83 deg. N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlatoins and to identify the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers.

The Effect of Intravenous Catheter Diameter on the Temperature of Fluids Warmed by the Level 1(TM) Fluid Warmer

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

9 Pathophysiology of hypothermia............ 11 Hypothermia and anesthesia................ 16 Causes of hypothermia...Various causes exist for the development of hypothermia and many are intrinsic to the surgical environment. Cool operating room temperatures, cold skin...slower infusion rates (< 20 ml/min) cause heat loss from fluids warmed by conventional warmers (Baker, 1985), similar loss may occur using rapid infusion

Source of moist air for the Asian summer monsoon lower stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Fu, R.; Wang, T.

2015-12-01

The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moist center of lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor during boreal summer. However, the origin of such moist air is still unclear. Using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that moist air originates mostly from the western Asian Monsoon region where dehydration temperatures are warmer than those on the eastside of the Asian monsoon region. On seasonal scale, a shift of convective and dehydration center from the eastern to western monsoon region from early to late summer may contribute to the increase of LS water vapor over the Asian monsoon region. An increasing convection over the west side of the monsoon region can significantly moisten the LS. Air detrained from convection ascends with enhanced large-scale rising motion and dehydrate mostly within this region under warmer temperature, thus anomalously higher water vapor concentration. After final dehydration, water vapor anomalies show an upper-eastward propagation across the Asian monsoon region. This is primarily due to that air parcels tend to arise across the tropopause layer over the western region (eastern Iranian Plateau and northwestern India) after final dehydration as simulated by the trajectory model. This work highlights the importance of transport pathway shift, induced by the convective regime shift, on both seasonal and intraseasonal variations of water vapor in the Asian monsoon LS.

Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

PubMed

Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

2016-01-01

Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe

PubMed Central

Väliranta, M.; Salonen, J. S.; Heikkilä, M.; Amon, L.; Helmens, K.; Klimaschewski, A.; Kuhry, P.; Kultti, S.; Poska, A.; Shala, S.; Veski, S.; Birks, H. H.

2015-01-01

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses. PMID:25858780

Pollen-proxies say cooler, climate models say warmer: resolving conflicting views of the Holocene climate of the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, E.; Mauri, A.; Davis, B. A. S.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Mediterranean region's climate during the Holocene has been the subject of long-standing debate within the paleoclimate community. Conflicting hypotheses have emerged from the analysis of different climate reconstructions based on proxy records and climate models outputs.In particular, pollen-based reconstructions of cooler summer temperatures during the Holocene have been criticized based on a hypothesis that the Mediterranean vegetation is mainly limited by effective precipitation and not summer temperature. This criticism is important because climate models show warmer summer temperatures during the Holocene over the Mediterranean region, in direct contradiction of the pollen-based evidence. Here we investigate this problem using a high resolution model simulation of the climate of the Mediterranean region during the mid-to-late Holocene, which we compare against pollen-based reconstructions using two different approaches.In the first, we compare the simulated climate from the model directly with the climate derived from the pollen data. In the second, we compare the simulated vegetation from the model directly with the vegetation from the pollen data.Results show that the climate model is unable to simulate neither the climate nor the vegetation shown by the pollen-data. The pollen data indicates an expansion in cool temperate vegetation in the mid-Holocene while the model suggests an expansion in warm arid vegetation. This suggests that the data-model discrepancy is more likely the result of bias in climate models, and not bias in the pollen-climate calibration transfer-function.

Energy metabolism and substrate utilization in low birth weight neonates under radiant warmers.

PubMed

Marks, K H; Nardis, E E; Momin, M N

1986-09-01

We evaluated the metabolic response to the thermal demands of an open radiant warmer device, as distinct from convection incubator, in 13 healthy premature infants (1.395 +/- 169 g, 28 +/- 12 days of age, mean +/- SD). Metabolic rate was 10% higher for infants under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (2.60 +/- 0.4 v 2.36 +/- 0.3 kcal/kg/h; P less than .05). The radiant warmer also induced a small (4%), but significant, increase in nonprotein respiratory quotient (0.94 +/- 0.1 v 0.90 +/- 0.1; P less than .05) and a 13% increase in carbon dioxide production (8.26 +/- 1.1 v 7.31 +/- 1.1 mL/kg/min; P less than .05). Subcutaneous fat accumulation (estimated from 60-second skin-fold thickness measurements) was greater under the radiant warmer than in the incubator (0.08 +/- 0.05 v 0.04 +/- 0.04 mm/d; P less than .05). Under the warmer, the infant's mean skin temperatures and core temperatures were normal and similar to those found in the incubator, but the foot temperature was on average 0.6 degrees C cooler. The average rate of weight gain (18 g/kg/d) was the same in the radiant environment. The pattern of the elevated metabolic rate, shift of respiratory quotient coupled with the accumulation of subcutaneous fat, and cool extremities of infants under the radiant warmer may represent a physiologic adaptive response to thermal stress. However, the reasons for the elevated metabolic rate are unclear, because activation of the sympathetic nervous system with the release of catecholamines is not apparently involved.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Summer temperature variation and implications for juvenile Atlantic salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mather, M. E.; Parrish, D.L.; Campbell, C.A.; McMenemy, J.R.; Smith, Joseph M.

2008-01-01

Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species' range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (???23??C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia

PubMed Central

Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K.; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

2016-01-01

Background Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Methods Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. Results We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. Conclusion To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia. PMID:27711116

Microhabitats and canopy cover moderate high summer temperatures in a fragmented Mediterranean landscape.

PubMed

Keppel, Gunnar; Anderson, Sharolyn; Williams, Craig; Kleindorfer, Sonia; O'Connell, Christopher

2017-01-01

Extreme heat events will become more frequent under anthropogenic climate change, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems. Microhabitats can considerably moderate (buffer) the effects of extreme weather events and hence facilitate the persistence of some components of the biodiversity. We investigate the microclimatic moderation provided by two important microhabitats (cavities formed by the leaves of the grass-tree Xanthorrhoea semiplana F.Muell., Xanthorrhoeaceae; and inside the leaf-litter) during the summer of 2015/16 on the Fleurieu Peninsula of South Australia. We placed microsensors inside and outside these microhabitats, as well as above the ground below the forest canopy. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats significantly buffered against high temperatures and low relative humidity, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. There was no significant difference between grass-tree and leaf-litter temperatures: in both microhabitats, daily temperature variation was reduced, day temperatures were 1-5°C cooler, night temperatures were 0.5-3°C warmer, and maximum temperatures were up to 14.4°C lower, compared to ground-below-canopy sensors. Grass-tree and leaf-litter microhabitats moderated heat increase at an average rate of 0.24°C temperature per 1°C increase of ambient temperature in the ground-below-canopy microhabitat. The average daily variation in temperature was determined by the type (grass-tree and leaf-litter versus ground-below-canopy) of microhabitat (explaining 67%), the amount of canopy cover and the area of the vegetation fragment (together explaining almost 10% of the variation). Greater canopy cover increased the amount of microclimatic moderation provided, especially in the leaf-litter. Our study highlights the importance of microhabitats in moderating macroclimatic conditions. However, this moderating effect is currently not considered in species distribution modelling under anthropogenic climate change nor in the management of

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Thermal responses from repeated exposures to severe cold with intermittent warmer temperatures.

PubMed

Ozaki, H; Enomoto-Koshimizu, H; Tochihara, Y; Nakamura, K

1998-09-01

This study was conducted to evaluate physiological reaction and manual performance during exposure to warm (30 degrees C) and cool (10 degrees C) environments after exposure to very low temperatures (-25 degrees C). Furthermore, this experiment was conducted to study whether it is desirable to remove cold-protective jackets in warmer rooms after severe cold exposure. Eight male students remained in an extremely cold room for 20 min, after which they transferred into either the warm room or the cool room for 20 min. This pattern was repeated three times, and the total cold exposure time was 60 min. In the warm and cool rooms, the subjects either removed their cold-protective jackets (Condition A), or wore them continuously (Condition B). Rectal temperature, skin temperatures, manual performance, blood pressure, thermal, comfort and pain sensations were measured during the experiment. The effects of severe cold on almost all measurements in the cool (10 degrees C) environment were greater than those in the warm (30 degrees C) environment under both clothing conditions. The effects of severe cold on all measurements under Condition A except rectal temperature and toe skin temperature were significantly greater than those under Condition B in the cool environment but, not at all differences between Condition A and Condition B in the warm environments were significant. It was recognized that to remove cold-protective jackets in the cool room (10 degrees C) after severe cold exposure promoted the effects of severe cold. When rewarming in the warm resting room (30 degrees C), the physiological and psychological responses and manual performance were not influenced by the presence or absence of cold-protective clothing. These results suggest that it is necessary for workers to make sure to rewarm in the warm room outside of the cold storage and continue to wear cold-protective clothing in the cool room.

Differential temperature preferences and thresholds among summer campers in Ontario's southern provincial parks: a Canadian case study in tourism climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-08-01

Weather and climate are important factors in relation to outdoor recreation and tourism. Camping and park visitation are weather sensitive activities very likely to be impacted by projected climate change. Temperature is the weather variable that has received the greatest attention within the tourism climatology literature and was the greatest predictor of park visitation within previous assessments. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach, relying on survey-based data, to explore differences for temperature preferences and thresholds among campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences (at the 95% confidence level) in mean values for temperature preferences and thresholds were recorded based on various camper characteristics, such as the following: activity selection, age, gender, distance travelled, length of stay, life cycle stage, camping experience, and camping equipment. Swimmers preferred warmer day-time temperatures. Older campers preferred cooler temperatures and were more sensitive to heat stress, in the day and night time. Females preferred warmer temperatures and were less sensitive to heat stress during the night time. Campers who had travelled further distances to reach the park or planned to stay for longer periods were less sensitive to heat stress. Campers with children in their group preferred warmer temperatures and were less sensitive to heat stress, in the day and at night. Respondents with higher levels of camping experience preferred warmer temperatures at night. Tent campers were less sensitive to heat stress, in the day and at night. The results of this study have direct implications for previous and future climate change impact assessments on park visitation.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska.

PubMed

Clegg, Benjamin F; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H; Walker, Ian R; Hu, Feng Sheng

2011-11-29

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate "surprises" with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000-5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land-atmosphere-ocean feedbacks.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska

PubMed Central

Clegg, Benjamin F.; Kelly, Ryan; Clarke, Gina H.; Walker, Ian R.; Hu, Feng Sheng

2011-01-01

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate “surprises” with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000–5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land–atmosphere–ocean feedbacks. PMID:22084085

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

21 CFR 872.6100 - Anesthetic warmer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Anesthetic warmer. 872.6100 Section 872.6100 Food... DEVICES DENTAL DEVICES Miscellaneous Devices § 872.6100 Anesthetic warmer. (a) Identification. An anesthetic warmer is an AC-powered device into which tubes containing anesthetic solution are intended to be...

Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

2018-05-01

The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

Spatial and Temporal Reconstruction of Scottish Summer Temperatures for the Last 300 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydval, Miloš; Cook, Edward R.; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Larsson, Lars-Åke; Wilson, Rob

2015-04-01

nested analysis was used to derive spatially independent reconstructions of (0.5°) gridded summer temperatures. The reconstruction results identified the timing, scale and duration of warmer and colder periods in the recent past, revealing the spatial patterns of temperature variability in this region over the past few centuries. The spatial reconstruction results agree well with a 600-yr composite BI / RW reconstruction from central Scotland using independent Scots pine chronologies extended into the past with samples preserved in Highland lakes.

Warmer temperatures reduce the influence of an important keystone predator.

PubMed

Bonaviri, Chiara; Graham, Michael; Gianguzza, Paola; Shears, Nick T

2017-05-01

Predator-prey interactions may be strongly influenced by temperature variations in marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate change may alter the importance of predators with repercussions for ecosystem functioning and structure. In North-eastern Pacific kelp forests, the starfish Pycnopodia helianthoides is known to be an important predator of the purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. Here we investigated the influence of water temperature on this predator-prey interaction by: (i) assessing the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of both species across a temperature gradient in the northern Channel Islands, California, and (ii) investigating how the feeding rate of P. helianthoides on S. purpuratus is affected by temperature in laboratory tests. On average, at sites where mean annual temperatures were <14 °C, P. helianthoides were common, S. purpuratus was rare and kelp was persistent, whereas where mean annual temperatures exceeded 14 °C, P. helianthoides and kelp were rare and S. purpuratus abundant. Temperature was found to be the primary environmental factor influencing P. helianthoides abundance, and in turn P. helianthoides was the primary determinant of S. purpuratus abundance. In the laboratory, temperatures >16 °C (equivalent to summer temperatures at sites where P. helianthoides were rare) reduced predation rates regardless of predator and prey sizes, although larger sea urchins were consumed only by large starfishes. These results clearly demonstrate that the effect of P. helianthoides on S. purpuratus is strongly mediated by temperature, and that the local abundance and predation rate of P. helianthoides on sea urchins will likely decrease with future warming. A reduction in top-down control on sea urchins, combined with other expected impacts of climate change on kelp, poses significant risks for the persistence of kelp forests in the future. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological

Influence of Lake Stratification Onset on Summer Surface Water Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolway, R. I.; Merchant, C. J.

2016-12-01

Summer lake surface water temperatures (LSSWT) are sensitive to climatic warming and have previously been shown to increase at a faster rate than surface air temperatures in some lakes, as a response to thermal stratification occurring earlier in spring. We explore this relationship using a combination of in situ, satellite derived, and simulated temperatures from 144 lakes. Our results demonstrate that LSSWTs of high-latitude and large deep lakes are particularly sensitive to changes in stratification onset and can be expected to display an amplified response to climatic changes in summer air temperature. Climatic modification of LSSWT has numerous consequences for water quality and lake ecosystems, so quantifying this amplified response is important.

Climate Drivers of Alaska Summer Stream Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bieniek, P.; Bhatt, U. S.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R.; Trammell, E. J.

2016-12-01

The temperature of the water in lakes, rivers and streams has wide ranging impacts from local water quality and fish habitats to global climate change. Salmon fisheries in Alaska, a critical source of food in many subsistence communities, are sensitive to large-scale climate variability and river and stream temperatures have also been linked with salmon production in Alaska. Given current and projected climate change, understanding the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate and river and stream temperatures is essential to better understand the changes that may occur with aquatic life in Alaska's waterways on which subsistence users depend. An analysis of Alaska stream temperatures in the context of reanalysis, downscaled, station and other climate data is undertaken in this study to fill that need. Preliminary analysis identified eight stream observation sites with sufficiently long (>15 years) data available for climate-scale analysis in Alaska with one station, Terror Creek in Kodiak, having a 30-year record. Cross-correlation of summer (June-August) water temperatures between the stations are generally high even though they are spread over a large geographic region. Correlation analysis of the Terror Creek summer observations with seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific broadly resembles the SST anomaly fields typically associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A similar result was found for the remaining stations and in both cases PDO-like correlation patterns also occurred in the preceding spring. These preliminary results demonstrate that there is potential to diagnose the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate system and Alaska stream temperatures.

Late summer temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring density for Sygera Mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mingyong; Duan, Jianping; Wang, Lily; Zhu, Haifeng

2018-04-01

Although several tree-ring density-based summer/late summer temperature reconstructions have been developed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the understanding of the local/regional characteristics of summer temperature fluctuations on a long-term scale in some regions is still limited. To improve our understanding in these aspects, more local or regional summer temperature reconstructions extending back over several centuries are required. In this study, a new mean latewood density (LWD) chronology from Abies georgei var. smithii from the upper tree line of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP was developed to reconstruct the late summer temperature variability since 1820 CE. The bootstrapped correlation analysis showed that the LWD chronology index was significantly and positively correlated with the late summer (August-September) mean temperatures (r1950-2008 = 0.63, p < 0.001) recorded at the nearest meteorological station and that this reconstruction has considerable potential to represent the late summer temperature variability at the regional scale. Our late summer temperature reconstruction revealed three obvious cold periods (i.e., 1872-1908, 1913-1937 and 1941-1966) and two relatively warm phases (i.e., 1821-1871 and 1970-2008) over the past two centuries. Comparisons of our reconstruction with other independent tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions, glacier fluctuations and historical documental records from neighboring regions showed good agreement in these relatively cold and warm intervals. Our reconstruction exhibits an overall increasing temperature trend since the 1960s, providing new evidence supporting the recent warming of the TP. Moreover, our results also indicate that the late summer temperature variability of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP has potential links with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Effects of high summer temperatures on mortality in 50 Spanish cities.

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Armstrong, Ben; Gasparrini, Antonio; Diaz, Julio

2014-06-09

Periods of high temperature have been widely found to be associated with excess mortality but with variable relationships in different cities. How these specifics depend on climatic and other characteristics of cities is not well understood. We assess summer temperature-mortality relationships using data from 50 provincial capitals in Spain, during the period 1990-2004. Poisson time series regression analyses were applied to daily temperature and mortality data, adjusting for potential confounding seasonal factors. Associations of heat with mortality were summarised for each city as the risk increments at the 99th compared to the 90th percentiles of the whole-year temperature distributions, as predicted from spline curves. Risk increments averaged 14.6% between both centiles, or 3.3% per 1 Celsius degree. Although risk increments varied substantially between cities, the range of temperature from the 90th to 99th centile was the only characteristic independently significantly associated with them. The heat increment did not depend on other city climatic, socio-demographic and geographic determinants. Cities in Spain are partially adapted to high mean summer temperatures but not to high variation in summer temperatures.

Food Safety for Warmer Weather

MedlinePlus

... Fight Off Food Poisoning Food Safety for Warmer Weather En español Send us your comments In warm-weather months, who doesn’t love to get outside ... to keep foods safe to eat during warmer weather. If you’re eating or preparing foods outside, ...

Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Northern Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 using TIMED/SABER Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Feofilov, A. G.; Pesnell, W. D.; Kutepov, A. A.

2012-01-01

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above about 80 km was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 S to 83 N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlations demonstrating the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers. From our analysis of SABER data from 2002-2010, the anomalous heating for the northern mesopause region during northern summer was accompanied by stratospheric heating in the equatorial region. In the winter hemisphere it is accompanied by heating in the lower stratosphere and mesopause region, and cooling in the stratopause region. Also, all the elements of the temperature anomaly structure appear to develop and fade away nearly simultaneously, thereby suggesting either a global influence or a rapid exchange.

Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

2017-04-01

A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part I: maximum temperatures in summer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

2009-09-01

Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of summer maximum temperatures is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, summer maximum daily temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent heat-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict heat-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily maximum temperatures during summer over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the summer forecast period of 1 June - 30 September, 2007. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated maximum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme heat episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

Relationships between ten-year trends of tropospheric ozone and temperature over Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsu, Kuang-Jung

2007-03-01

The analyses of ten-year ozonesonde observations from 1993 till 2002, over Taipei, Taiwan show influences of climate change. Despite huge increases in its precursor emissions in this region, there were little variations in tropospheric ozone. Results indicate a warmer troposphere, a statistically insignificant rising tropopause, 79+/-206 m per decade, and decreasing tropopause temperature at -1.0+/-0.89 K per decade. The derived mean tropospheric ozone is 40.58+/-10.99 DU, and has a statistically insignificant small trend of -0.78+/-1.7 DU per decade. The derived ten-year vertical trends of temperature and ozone are inversely correlated with each other from the middle troposphere up to the lower stratosphere. The averaged monthly vertical temperature trends show a generally warmer middle troposphere. The tropospheric ozone monthly trend has small increases only in the lower troposphere during winter and spring. Strong decreases occur in summer, from the surface up into the stratosphere. For ozone variation, results suggest that influences of climate forcing are stronger than those from precursor increases. More frequent and/or intense convection in summer and other climate-induced effects may contribute to the less than expected ozone observed in the troposphere.

Portable Cooler/Warmers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Early in the space program, NASA recognized the need to replace bulky coils, compressers, and motors for refrigeration purposes by looking at existing thermoelectric technology. This effort resulted in the development of miniaturized thermoelectric components and packaging to accommodate tight confines of spacecraft. Koolatron's portable electronic refrigerators incorporate this NASA technology. Each of the cooler/warmers employs one or two miniaturized thermoelectric modules. Although each module is only the size of a book of matches, it delivers the cooling power of a 10-pound block of ice. In some models, the cooler can be converted to a warmer. There are no moving parts. The Koolatrons can be plugged into auto cigarette lighters, recreational vehicles, boats or motel outlets.

High sensitivity of gross primary production in the Rocky Mountains to summer rain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berkelhammer, M.; Stefanescu, I.C.; Joiner, J.; Anderson, Lesleigh

2017-01-01

In the catchments of the Rocky Mountains, peak snowpack is declining in response to warmer spring temperatures. To understand how this will influence terrestrial gross primary production (GPP), we compared precipitation data across the intermountain west with satellite retrievals of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for GPP. Annual precipitation patterns explained most of the spatial and temporal variability of SIF, but the slope of the response was dependent on site to site differences in the proportion of snowpack to summer rain. We separated the response of SIF to different seasonal precipitation amounts and found that SIF was approximately twice as sensitive to variations in summer rain than snowpack. The response of peak GPP to a secular decline in snowpack will likely be subtle, whereas a change in summer rain amount will have precipitous effects on GPP. The study suggests that the rain use efficiency of Rocky Mountain ecosystems is strongly dependent on precipitation form and timing.

Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

PubMed

Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-06-21

Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

Impacts of temperature and its variability on mortality in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Liuhua; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Liu, Pengfei; Schwartz, Joel D.

2015-11-01

Rapid build-up of greenhouse gases is expected to increase Earth’s mean surface temperature, with unclear effects on temperature variability. This makes understanding the direct effects of a changing climate on human health more urgent. However, the effects of prolonged exposures to variable temperatures, which are important for understanding the public health burden, are unclear. Here we demonstrate that long-term survival was significantly associated with both seasonal mean values and standard deviations of temperature among the Medicare population (aged 65+) in New England, and break that down into long-term contrasts between ZIP codes and annual anomalies. A rise in summer mean temperature of 1 °C was associated with a 1.0% higher death rate, whereas an increase in winter mean temperature corresponded to a 0.6% decrease in mortality. Increases in standard deviations of temperature for both summer and winter were harmful. The increased mortality in warmer summers was entirely due to anomalies, whereas it was long-term average differences in the standard deviation of summer temperatures across ZIP codes that drove the increased risk. For future climate scenarios, seasonal mean temperatures may in part account for the public health burden, but the excess public health risk of climate change may also stem from changes of within-season temperature variability.

Evidence for Interhemispheric Coupling during the Unusual Northern Polar Summer Mesosphere of 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Feofilov, Artem; Kutepov, Alexandr; Schmidlin, Francis J.; Russell, James M.

2009-01-01

Data from the MaCWAVE MIDAS Rocket Program launched during July, 2002, from Andoya Rocket Range (ARR) in Norway have demonstrated that the temperature structure of the summer polar mesosphere during this period was atypical, at least above ARR. The summer polar mesopause region was warmer than normal and of shorter duration than for other years analyzed. Theoretical studies have since been published that imply that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these characteristics on a global scale and compare them with the features observed in the ensuing seven years. For background, The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The SABER instrument on TIMED is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as temperature of the MLT. In this study, we have investigated the temperature characteristics of the polar mesosphere as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We have used the most recent SABER dataset (1.07) that includes the improved temperature retrievals in Earth polar regions, Weekly averages were used 10 make the comparisons between the winter and summer hemispheres. The unusually short polar summer in the northern hemisphere during 2002 is clearly defined by this analysis and is shown to be unique for the 7 years analyzed. Furthermore, the data analysis agrees with recent theoretical studies showing that this behavior is a result of anomalous heating events in the southern polar stratosphere. The time sequence of the coupling process, as predicted by recent theoretical models, is well defined in a sequence of weekly temperature contour maps measured by SABER.

Warmer and wetter 6000 years ago?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beck, W.

1998-02-13

The author discusses recent work on thermometer systems which can be used to study past climatic temperatures. The {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio of marine carbonates was originally expected to provide a definitive answer following its introduction. However this ratio has been shown to be a function of temperature and the isotope ratio in seawater, which has been seen to vary on glacial time scales. Recent work to link the {sup 18}O/{sup 16}O isotope ratio with the Sr/Ca ratio measurement in corals has shown promise to factor out some of this variability. One interpretation of recent work with 6000 yearmore » corals is that sea temperatures were 1.2{degrees}C warmer, and the extratropics should have been wetter. The authors discuss other interpretations, and additional work to validate the use of these types of thermometer systems.« less

An underestimated record breaking event: why summer 1540 was very likely warmer than 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetter, O.; Pfister, C.

2012-07-01

This paper challenges the argument obtained from the analysis of grape harvest (GHD) and maximum latewood density (MXD) data that the 2003 heat-wave in Western Europe was the most extreme warm anomaly in the last millennium. We have evidence that the heat and drought in 1540 known from numerous contemporary narrative documentary reports is not adequately reflected in these estimates. Vines severely suffered from the extreme heat and drought which led vine-growers to postpone the harvest in hope for a rain spell. At the time of harvest many grapes had already become raisins. Likewise, many trees suffered from premature leaf fall probably as a result of a decreased net photosynthesis, as it was measured in 2003. To more realistically assess 1540's spring-summer (AMJJ) temperature we present a new Swiss series of critically evaluated GHD. Basing on three different approaches considering the drought effect on vines, temperatures were assessed between 4.3 °C and 6.3 °C (including the Standard Error of Estimate (SEE) of 0.52 °C) above the 1901-2000 mean which is significantly higher than the value of 2.9 °C measured in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for extreme heat-waves this result still needs to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation from independent evidence.

Rearing sunshine bass using diets formulated for summer water temperatures

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Elevated water temperatures are common in hybrid striped bass or Sunshine bass (HSB; Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis) production ponds during summer months in the southern US. Median daily water temperatures often exceed 30 C from June through September. This experiment was conducted to extend and re...

Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2018-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

Hibernacula and summer den sites of pine snakes (Pituophis melanoleucus) in the New Jersey pine barrens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burger, J.; Zappalorti, R.T.; Gochfeld, M.; Boarman, W.I.; Caffrey, M.; Doig, V.; Garber, S.D.; Lauro, B.; Mikovsky, M.; Safina, C.; Saliva, Jorge

1988-01-01

We examined eight summer dens (used only in summer) and seven hibernacula (occupied both in winter and summer) of the snake Pituophis melanoleucus in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, comparing above ground characteristics of hibernacula and summer dens with characteristics at nearby random points. Temperatures at the soil surface and at 10 cm depth were significantly warmer, and there was less leaf cover around the random points compared to the entrances of the hibernacula and summer dens. Hibernacula had significantly more vegetation cover within 5 m, more leaf cover over the burrow entrance, and were closer to trees than were summer dens. Most hibernacula and summer dens were beside old fallen logs (73%), the entrance tunnels following decaying roots into the soil. Excavation of the hibernacula and summer dens indicated that most hibernacula appeared to be dug by the snakes and had an average of eight side chambers and 642 cm of tunnels, compared to less than one side chamber and 122 cm of tunnels for summer dens. Except for hatchlings, most snakes in hibernacula were located in individual chambers off the main tunnel; all snakes were at depths of 50-111 cm (X̄ = 79 cm). Pine snakes may select optimum hibernation sites which reduce winter mortality.

Effects of air temperature and discharge on Upper Mississippi River summer water temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Robertson, Dale M.; Rogala, James T.

2018-01-01

Recent interest in the potential effects of climate change has prompted studies of air temperature and precipitation associations with water temperatures in rivers and streams. We examined associations between summer surface water temperatures and both air temperature and discharge for 5 reaches of the Upper Mississippi River during 1994–2011. Water–air temperature associations at a given reach approximated 1:1 when estimated under an assumption of reach independence but declined to approximately 1:2 when water temperatures were permitted to covary among reaches and were also adjusted for upstream air temperatures. Estimated water temperature–discharge associations were weak. An apparently novel feature of this study is that of addressing changes in associations between water and air temperatures when both are correlated among reaches.

Regional patterns of increasing Swiss needle cast impacts on Douglas-fir growth with warming temperatures.

PubMed

Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie

2017-12-01

The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant

Spatial modeling to project Southern Appalachian Trout distribution in warmer climate

Treesearch

Patrica A. Flebbe; Laura D. Roghair; Jennifer L. Bruggink

2006-01-01

In the southern Appalachian Mountains, the distributions of native brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and introduced rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss and brown trout Salmo trutta are presently limited by temperature and are expected to be limited further by a warmer climate. To estimate trout habitat in a future...

The Effects of High Temperature on Seasonal and Diurnal Cycles of Photosynthetic Water Use Efficiency of Southern California Native Shrubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pesqueira, A.; Pivovaroff, A. L.; Sun, W.; Seibt, U.

2016-12-01

"Hot drought," or drought that occurs in conjunction with warmer temperatures due to climate change, is driving regional vegetation die-off worldwide. We examined how water use efficiency (WUE), or the ratio of carbon assimilation to transpiration, varies with changes in temperature. We use flow-through chambers at Stunt Ranch, a University of California Natural Reserve System (UCNRS) site located in the Southern California Santa Monica Mountains. We focused on four woody, native species with contrasting adaptations to seasonal drought, including Heteromeles arbutifolia, Malosma laurina, and Quercus agrifolia which are evergreen chaparral shrubs/trees, and Salvia leucophylla which is a drought-deciduous coastal sage scrub shrub. For the four species, we continuously monitored fluxes of carbon and water to calculate WUE. WUE was higher in the relatively cool, wet spring months for all species, but declined with the onset of the seasonal drought and warmer summer temperatures. We observed the highest WUE values in the temperature range from 10°C to 25°C. During the summer months, all species have the highest WUE during the morning, taking advantage of the lower evaporative demand before the temperature increases during midday and afternoon. The species with the highest WUE, M. laurina, also typically has the deepest roots at the site. Ongoing monitoring will allow us to investigate how WUE will continue to respond to water stress and high temperatures combined with intensifying water stress during the hot, dry summer months.

Getting into hot water: sick guppies frequent warmer thermal conditions.

PubMed

Mohammed, Ryan S; Reynolds, Michael; James, Joanna; Williams, Chris; Mohammed, Azad; Ramsubhag, Adesh; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Jo

2016-07-01

Ectotherms depend on the environmental temperature for thermoregulation and exploit thermal regimes that optimise physiological functioning. They may also frequent warmer conditions to up-regulate their immune response against parasite infection and/or impede parasite development. This adaptive response, known as 'behavioural fever', has been documented in various taxa including insects, reptiles and fish, but only in response to endoparasite infections. Here, a choice chamber experiment was used to investigate the thermal preferences of a tropical freshwater fish, the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), when infected with a common helminth ectoparasite Gyrodactylus turnbulli, in female-only and mixed-sex shoals. The temperature tolerance of G. turnbulli was also investigated by monitoring parasite population trajectories on guppies maintained at a continuous 18, 24 or 32 °C. Regardless of shoal composition, infected fish frequented the 32 °C choice chamber more often than when uninfected, significantly increasing their mean temperature preference. Parasites maintained continuously at 32 °C decreased to extinction within 3 days, whereas mean parasite abundance increased on hosts incubated at 18 and 24 °C. We show for the first time that gyrodactylid-infected fish have a preference for warmer waters and speculate that sick fish exploit the upper thermal tolerances of their parasites to self medicate.

Do summer temperatures trigger spring maturation in pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clemens, B.J.; Van De Wetering, S.; Kaufman, J.; Holt, R.A.; Schreck, C.B.

2009-01-01

Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus, return to streams and use somatic energy to fuel maturation. Body size decreases, the lamprey mature, spawn, and then die. We predicted that warm, summer temperatures (>20 ??C) would accentuate shrinkage in body size, and expedite sexual maturation and subsequent death. We compared fish reared in the laboratory at diel fluctuating temperatures of 20-24 ??C (mean = 21.8 ??C) with fish reared at cooler temperatures (13.6 ??C). The results confirmed our predictions. Lamprey from the warm water group showed significantly greater proportional decreases in body weight following the summer temperature treatments than fish from the cool water group. A greater proportion of warm water fish sexually matured (100%) and died (97%) the following spring than cool water fish (53% sexually mature, 61% died). Females tended to mature and die earlier than males, most obviously in the warm water group. ?? 2009 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Modeling changes in summer temperature of the Fraser River during the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Michael R.; Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.

2007-09-01

SummaryThe Fraser River basin in British Columbia has significant environmental, economic and cultural importance. Healthy river conditions through sufficient flows and optimal temperatures are of paramount importance for the survival of Pacific salmon, which migrate upriver toward the headwaters to spawn near the end of their lives. Trends have been detected which indicate that the annual flow and summer temperature have been increasing since the middle of the last century. In this study we examine the observed trend in summer temperature of the Fraser River and compare it with temperatures calculated as part of a global climate model (GCM) simulation in which atmospheric greenhouse gases are increasing. We then use the GCM to consider how these trends might continue through the present century. Both the observations and model indicate that during the last half of the 20th century, the summer temperature near the river mouth has been increasing at a rate of approximately 0.12 °C per decade in August. In this study we use an online method in which river temperatures are calculated directly as part of a GCM simulation and project how summer temperature near the mouth of the Fraser River might change by the end of the present century. The results indicate that between 2000 and 2100 river temperatures will increase in all summer months with a maximum increase of 0.14 °C per decade in August. This result is consistent with an offline modeling study by [Morrison, J., Quick, M.C., Goreman, M.G.G. 2002. Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections. Journal of Hydrology, 263, 230-244] in which they used output from two GCMS to drive a hydrologic model and predict future changes in river temperature and supports their contention that the timing and magnitude of the increase could be crucial for salmon migration. Future work can extend this analysis to other river systems in an effort to project the potential effects of climate change on

The last interglacial in eastern Canada and the northwest North Atlantic : further evidence for warmer climate and ocean conditions than during the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Vernal, A.; Fréchette, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; van Nieuwenhove, N.; Retailleau, S.

2012-04-01

The climate conditions of the last interglacial (LI) in northeastern and southeastern Canada are documented from pollen data of Baffin Island and Cape Breton Island respectively. The LI pollen assemblages indicate very different vegetation than at present and a northern limit of the deciduous forest biome as far as 500 km north of its modern position. The application of the modern analogue technique also reveal warmer climate during the LI than at present, 4-5°C warmer on Baffin Island at ~67-70°N in the Canadian Arctic, and up to 7°C warmer on Cape Breton Island at ~45°N in the southeastern Canada. The contrast between LI and Holocene climates is also shown from marine data (dinocysts, foraminifers, oxygen and carbon isotopes) that document warmer than Holocene conditions in surface waters (up to 5.5°C in summer, notably off southwest Greenland) and very distinct distribution of intermediate to deep waters in northern and southern part of the Labrador Sea. An important zonal atmospheric circulation component at mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic is also evidenced from the pollen content of marine cores collected in central North Atlantic (IODP Site 1304), which strongly suggests an origin from southeastern Canada. Altogether the data demonstrate much warmer conditions along the eastern Canadian margins, from North to South. The mild conditions along the coastlines and the relatively warm waters off eastern Canada and southern Greenland suggest reduced Arctic outflow components through the East Greenland Current and Labrador Current. Comparisons with records from eastern North Atlantic lead us to conclude in a more zonal climate during the LI than the Holocene, especially the early Holocene that was marked by a particularly pronounced west to east gradient of temperatures. Hence, the thermal optimum of the LI and that of the Holocene provide two examples of very different climate and ocean circulation regimes in the circum-Atlantic region during the "warm

Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Institut national de santé publique du Québec

2014-10-15

Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures inmore » 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

Spatial and temporal variation in daily temperature indices in summer and winter seasons over India (1969-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naresh; Jaswal, A. K.; Mohapatra, M.; Kore, P. A.

2017-08-01

Spatial and temporal variations in summer and winter extreme temperature indices are studied by using daily maximum and minimum temperatures data from 227 surface meteorological stations well distributed over India for the period 1969-2012. For this purpose, time series for six extreme temperature indices namely, hot days (HD), very hot days (VHD), extremely hot days (EHD), cold nights (CN), very cold nights (VCN), and extremely cold nights (ECN) are calculated for all the stations. In addition, time series for mean extreme temperature indices of summer and winter seasons are also analyzed. Study reveals high variability in spatial distribution of threshold temperatures of extreme temperature indices over the country. In general, increasing trends are observed in summer hot days indices and decreasing trends in winter cold night indices over most parts of the country. The results obtained in this study indicate warming in summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures over India. Averaged over India, trends in summer hot days indices HD, VHD, and EHD are significantly increasing (+1.0, +0.64, and +0.32 days/decade, respectively) and winter cold night indices CN, VCN, and ECN are significantly decreasing (-0.93, -0.47, and -0.15 days/decade, respectively). Also, it is observed that the impact of extreme temperature is higher along the west coast for summer and east coast for winter.

Inferences about winter temperatures and summer rains from the late Quaternary record of C4 perennial grasses and C3 desert shrubs in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmgren, Camille A.; Norris, Jodi; Betancourt, Julio L.

2007-01-01

Late Quaternary histories of two North American desert biomes—C4 grasslands and C3 shrublands—are poorly known despite their sensitivity and potential value in reconstructing summer rains and winter temperatures. Plant macrofossil assemblages from packrat midden series in the northern Chihuahuan Desert show that C4 grasses and annuals typical of desert grassland persisted near their present northern limits throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. By contrast, key C3 desert shrubs appeared somewhat abruptly after 5000cal.yrBP. Bioclimatic envelopes for select C4 and C3 species are mapped to interpret the glacial-interglacial persistence of desert grassland and the mid-to-late Holocene expansion of desert shrublands. The envelopes suggest relatively warm Pleistocene temperatures with moist summers allowed for persistence of C4 grasses, whereas winters were probably too cold (or too wet) for C3 desert shrubs. Contrary to climate model results, core processes associated with the North American Monsoon and moisture transport to the northern Chihuahuan Desert remained intact throughout the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Mid-latitude effects, however, truncated midsummer (July-August) moisture transport north of 35° N. The sudden expansion of desert shrublands after 5000cal.yrBP may be a threshold response to warmer winters associated with increasing boreal winter insolation, and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability.

A chironomid-based reconstruction of summer temperatures in NW Iceland since AD 1650

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langdon, P. G.; Caseldine, C. J.; Croudace, I. W.; Jarvis, S.; Wastegård, S.; Crowford, T. C.

2011-05-01

Few studies currently exist that aim to validate a proxy chironomid-temperature reconstruction with instrumental temperature measurements. We used a reconstruction from a chironomid percentage abundance data set to produce quantitative summer temperature estimates since AD 1650 for NW Iceland through a transfer function approach, and validated the record against instrumental temperature measurements from Stykkishólmur in western Iceland. The core was dated through Pb-210, Cs-137 and tephra analyses (Hekla 1693) which produced a well-constrained dating model across the whole study period. Little catchment disturbance, as shown through geochemical (Itrax) and loss-on-ignition data, throughout the period further reinforce the premise that the chironomids were responding to temperature and not other catchment or within-lake variables. Particularly cold phases were identified between AD 1683-1710, AD 1765-1780 and AD 1890-1917, with relative drops in summer temperatures in the order of 1.5-2°C. The timing of these cold phases agree well with other evidence of cooler temperatures, notably increased extent of Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers. Our evidence suggests that the magnitude of summer temperature cooling (1.5-2°C) was enough to force LIA Icelandic glaciers into their maximum Holocene extent, which is in accordance with previous modelling experiments for an Icelandic ice cap (Langjökull).

Is a warmer climate wilting the forests of the north?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taubes, G.

1995-03-17

The far-northern climate has warmed 2 degrees Celsium since the 1880s, much more than the rest of the world. A warmer climate might be expected to speed tree growth and drive the northern edge of the forest farther into the Arctic. However a 4 year study of growth rings in trees growing near the timberline in northern and central Alaska indicated differently. Two researchers, Jacoby and D`Arrigo of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, report that as the high latitudes warmed over the past 100 years, tree growth accelerated at first, but recently the growth rate has flattened while the climate continues tomore » warm. This article discusses how the research was done and the possible implications and explanations, including the possibility that warmer temperatures may encourage outbreaks of insect pests.« less

Effect of summer heat environment on body temperature, estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cow.

PubMed

Sakatani, Miki; Balboula, Ahmed Z; Yamanaka, Kenichi; Takahashi, Masashi

2012-05-01

This study investigated the effect of summer heat environment on estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cows. A total of 13 non-lactating Japanese Black cows (summer: 9, winter: 4) were examined. Body temperature was measured rectally and intravaginally using a thermometer and data logger, respectively. Estrous behavior was monitored using a radiotelemetric pedometer that recorded walking activity. Rectal temperatures were higher during summer than winter (P<0.001). There was an acute increase in vaginal temperature at the onset of estrus during winter but such an increase was not observed during summer. Walking activity during estrus decreased dramatically in the summer compared to the winter. Duration of estrous cycle was longer in summer (23.4 days, P<0.05) than winter (21.5 days), and the subsequent rise in progesterone concentrations following estrus tended to be delayed in summer. The level of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) in peripheral blood cells was higher during summer (P<0.05), while the levels of superoixde dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glutathione were lower (P<0.05). These results indicate that high ambient temperature during summer increases both body temperature and oxidative stress, and also reduces signs of estrus in Japanese Black cows. © 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Trends in summer bottom-water temperatures on the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf from 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Turner, R Eugene; Rabalais, Nancy N; Justić, Dubravko

2017-01-01

We quantified trends in the 1985 to 2015 summer bottom-water temperature on the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) continental shelf for data collected at 88 stations with depths ranging from 3 to 63 m. The analysis was supplemented with monthly data collected from 1963 to 1965 in the same area. The seasonal summer peak in average bottom-water temperature varied concurrently with air temperature, but with a 2- to 5-month lag. The summer bottom-water temperature declined gradually with depth from 30 oC at stations closest to the shore, to 20 oC at the offshore edge of the study area, and increased an average 0.051 oC y-1 between1963 and 2015. The bottom-water warming in summer for all stations was 1.9 times faster compared to the rise in local summer air temperatures, and 6.4 times faster than the concurrent increase in annual global ocean sea surface temperatures. The annual rise in average summer bottom-water temperatures on the subtropical nGOM continental shelf is comparable to the few published temperature trend estimates from colder environments. These recent changes in the heat storage on the nGOM continental shelf will affect oxygen and carbon cycling, spatial distribution of fish and shrimp, and overall species diversity.

Forest phenology and a warmer climate - Growing season extension in relation to climatic provenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunderson, Carla A; Edwards, Nelson T; Walker, Ashley V

2012-01-01

Predicting forest responses to warming climates relies on assumptions about niche and temperature sensitivity that remain largely untested. Observational studies have related current and historical temperatures to phenological shifts, but experimental evidence is sparse, particularly for autumn responses. A five-year field experiment exposed four deciduous forest species from contrasting climates (Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Populus grandidentata, and Betula alleghaniensis) to air temperatures 2 and 4 C above ambient controls. Impacts of year-round warming on bud burst (BB), senescence and abscission were evaluated in relation to thermal provenance. Leaves emerged earlier in all species, by an average of 6-9 days atmore » +2 and +4 C. Magnitude of advance varied with species and year, but was larger for the first 2 C increment than the second. The effect of warming increased with early BB, favoring Liquidambar, from the warmest climate, but even BB in northern species advanced, despite temperatures well beyond those of the realized niche. Treatment differences in BB were poorly explained by temperature sums, which increased with treatment. In autumn, chlorophyll was retained an average of 4 and 7 days longer in +2 and +4 C treatments, and abscission delayed by 8 and 13 days. Species differences in autumn responses were marginally significant. Growing seasons in the warmer atmospheres were 6 - 28 days longer, with the least impact in Quercus. Results are compared with a 16-year record of canopy onset and offset in a nearby upland deciduous forest, where BB showed similar responsiveness to spring temperatures (2 - 4 days C-1). Offset dates in the stand tracked August-September temperatures, except when late summer drought caused premature senescence. The common garden-like experimental approach provides evidence that warming alone extends the growing season, at both ends, even if stand-level impacts are complicated by other environmental factors.« less

Differences in Temperature Changes in Premature Infants During Invasive Procedures in Incubators and Radiant Warmers.

PubMed

Handhayanti, Ludwy; Rustina, Yeni; Budiati, Tri

Premature infants tend to lose heat quickly. This loss can be aggravated when they have received an invasive procedure involving a venous puncture. This research uses crossover design by conducting 2 intervention tests to compare 2 different treatments on the same sample. This research involved 2 groups with 18 premature infants in each. The process of data analysis used a statistical independent t test. Interventions conducted in an open incubator showed a p value of .001 which statistically related to heat loss in premature infants. In contrast, the radiant warmer p value of .001 statistically referred to a different range of heat gain before and after the venous puncture was given. The radiant warmer saved the premature infant from hypothermia during the invasive procedure. However, it is inadvisable for routine care of newborn infants since it can increase insensible water loss.

On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buccola, Norman L.; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-04-01

hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Simulating future water temperatures in the North Santiam River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman; Risley, John C.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-01-01

salmonids. A hypothetical floating surface withdrawal at Detroit Dam improved temperature control in summer and autumn (0.6 °C warmer in summer, 0.6 °C cooler in autumn compared to existing structures) without altering release rates or lake level management rules.

Increased Relative Risk of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Warmer Weather.

PubMed

Daniel, Milan; Danielová, Vlasta; Fialová, Alena; Malý, Marek; Kříž, Bohumír; Nuttall, Patricia A

2018-01-01

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a serious acute neuroinfection of humans caused by a tick-borne flavivirus. The disease is typically seasonal, linked to the host-seeking activity of Ixodes ricinus (predominantly nymphs), the principal European tick vector species. To address the need for accurate risk predictions of contracting TBE, data on 4,044 TBE cases reported in the Czech Republic during 2001-2006 were compared with questing activity of I. ricinus nymphs monitored weekly at a defined location for the same 6-year period. A time shift of 21 days between infected tick bite and recorded disease onset provided the optimal model for comparing the number of cases of TBE with numbers of questing nymphs. Mean annual distribution of TBE cases and tick counts showed a similar bimodal distribution. Significantly, the ratio of TBE cases to questing nymphs was highest in the summer-autumn period even though the number of questing nymphs peaked in the spring-summer period. However, this pattern changed during a period of extreme meteorological events of flooding and abnormally high temperatures, indicating that changes in climate affect the incidence of TBE. Previous studies failed to link human behavior with changes in incidence of TBE but showed extrinsic temperature impacts arbovirus replication. Hence, we hypothesize the apparent discrepancy between peak nymphal tick activity and greatest risk of contracting TBE is due to the effect of temperature on virus replication in the tick vector. Relative proportions of questing nymphs and the numbers of weeks in which they were found were greater in summer-autumn compared with spring-summer at near-ground temperatures >5°C and at standard day and weekly average temperatures of >15°C. Thus, during the summer-autumn period, the virus dose in infected tick bites is likely greater owing to increased virus replication at higher microclimatic temperatures, consequently increasing the relative risk of contracting TBE per summer

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in

Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

PubMed

Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

2016-11-01

Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Greater effect of increasing shrub height on winter versus summer soil temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Mélissa; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane

2016-08-01

Shrub expansion is increasingly observed in arctic and subarctic environments. The development of shrub structure may significantly impact the abiotic environment at the local scale. Our objective was to reconstruct the development of the vertical structure of Betula glandulosa Michx. and to evaluate its effects on winter and summer soil temperature and on snow depth. Stratified sampling of the shrub revealed that shrub biomass distribution followed a similar pattern in stands of contrasting heights. Woody biomass was maximal in the lower stratum and relatively stable in the intermediate strata, while the foliar biomass tracked the vertical development of the shrub structure. Dendrochronological analysis revealed that shrub stands are relatively young; most of the dominant stems started their development after 1990. Shrub height was positively associated with both the dominant stem age and its vertical growth rate. Temperature differences among sites were greater during winter (ca 10 °C) than during summer (ca 2 °C), while the sum of freezing degree-days varied from 680 °C to 2125 °C. Shrub height was the most plausible variable explaining snow depth, winter ground level temperature and the sum of freezing degree-days. However, woody biomass in the 30-40 cm strata best explained summer ground level temperature. Our results suggest that the development of a shrub structure will have far-reaching consequences on the abiotic environment of subarctic ecosystems.

Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

PubMed

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaswal, A. K.; Rao, P. C. S.; Singh, Virendra

2015-02-01

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature (HT) defined as days with maximum temperature higher than 37°C during summer season (March-June) are studied. With a focus on the regional variability and long-term trends, the impacts of HT days are examined by dividing the country into six geographical regions (North, West, North-central, East, South-central and South). Although the long-term (1969-2013) climatological numbers of HT days display well-defined spatial patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a recent period (1991-2013). The long period trends indicate increase in summer HT days by 3%, 5%, and 18% in north, west, and south regions, respectively and decrease by 4% and 9% in north-central and east regions respectively. However, spatial variations in HT days exist across different regions in the country. The data analysis shows that 2010 was the warmest summer year and 2013 was the coolest summer year in India. Comparison of spatial distributions of trends in HT days for 1969-1990 and 1991-2013 periods reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of HT days over north, west and north-central regions of India probably from mid 1990s. A steep increase in summer HT days in highly populated cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Jaipur, and Visakhapatnam is noticed during the recent period of 1991-2013. The summer HT days over southern India indicate significant positive correlation with Nino 3.4 index for three months' running mean (December-January-February, January-March, February-April, March-May and April-June).

A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire.

PubMed

Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J

2017-12-01

Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.

Zooplankton species composition, abundance and biomass on the eastern Bering Sea shelf during summer: The potential role of water-column stability and nutrients in structuring the zooplankton community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyle, Kenneth O.; Pinchuk, Alexei I.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Napp, Jeffrey M.

2008-08-01

The southeastern Bering Sea sustains one of the largest fisheries in the United States, as well as wildlife resources that support valuable tourist and subsistence economies. The fish and wildlife populations in turn are sustained by a food web linking primary producers to apex predators through the zooplankton community. Recent shifts in climate toward warmer conditions may threaten these resources by altering productivity and trophic relationships in the ecosystem on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf. We examined the zooplankton community near the Pribilof Islands and on the middle shelf of the southeastern Bering Sea in summer of 1999 and 2004 to document differences and similarities in species composition, abundance and biomass by region and year. Between August 1999 and August 2004, the summer zooplankton community of the middle shelf shifted from large to small species. Significant declines were observed in the biomass of large scyphozoans ( Chrysaora melanaster), large copepods ( Calanus marshallae), arrow worms ( Sagitta elegans) and euphausiids ( Thysanoessa raschii, T. inermis) between 1999 and 2004. In contrast, significantly higher densities of the small copepods ( Pseudocalanus spp., Oithona similis) and small hydromedusae ( Euphysa flammea) were observed in 2004 relative to 1999. Stomach analyses of young-of-the-year (age 0) pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma) from the middle shelf indicated a dietary shift from large to small copepods in 2004 relative to 1999. The shift in the zooplankton community was accompanied by a 3-fold increase in water-column stability in 2004 relative to 1999, primarily due to warmer water above the thermocline, with a mean temperature of 7.3 °C in 1999 and 12.6 °C in 2004. The elevated water-column stability and warmer conditions may have influenced the zooplankton composition by lowering summer primary production and selecting for species more tolerant of a warm, oligotrophic environment. A time series of temperature from

Effects of altered temperature and precipitation on desert protozoa associated with biological soil crusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darby, B.J.; Housman, D.C.; Zaki, A.M.; Shamout, Y.; Adl, S.M.; Belnap, J.; Neher, D.A.

2006-01-01

Biological soil crusts are diverse assemblages of bacteria, cyanobacteria, algae, fungi, lichens, and mosses that cover much of arid land soils. The objective of this study was to quantify protozoa associated with biological soil crusts and test the response of protozoa to increased temperature and precipitation as is predicted by some global climate models. Protozoa were more abundant when associated with cyanobacteria/lichen crusts than with cyanobacteria crusts alone. Amoebae, flagellates, and ciliates originating from the Colorado Plateau desert (cool desert, primarily winter precipitation) declined 50-, 10-, and 100-fold, respectively, when moved in field mesocosms to the Chihuahuan Desert (hot desert, primarily summer rain). However, this was not observed in protozoa collected from the Chihuahuan Desert and moved to the Sonoran desert (hot desert, also summer rain, but warmer than Chihuahuan Desert). Protozoa in culture began to encyst at 37??C. Cysts survived the upper end of daily temperatures (37-55??C), and could be stimulated to excyst if temperatures were reduced to 15??C or lower. Results from this study suggest that cool desert protozoa are influenced negatively by increased summer precipitation during excessive summer temperatures, and that desert protozoa may be adapted to a specific desert's temperature and precipitation regime. ?? 2006 by the International Society of Protistologists.

Comparison of the decomposition VOC profile during winter and summer in a moist, mid-latitude (Cfb) climate.

PubMed

Forbes, Shari L; Perrault, Katelynn A; Stefanuto, Pierre-Hugues; Nizio, Katie D; Focant, Jean-François

2014-01-01

The investigation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) associated with decomposition is an emerging field in forensic taphonomy due to their importance in locating human remains using biological detectors such as insects and canines. A consistent decomposition VOC profile has not yet been elucidated due to the intrinsic impact of the environment on the decomposition process in different climatic zones. The study of decomposition VOCs has typically occurred during the warmer months to enable chemical profiling of all decomposition stages. The present study investigated the decomposition VOC profile in air during both warmer and cooler months in a moist, mid-latitude (Cfb) climate as decomposition occurs year-round in this environment. Pig carcasses (Sus scrofa domesticus L.) were placed on a soil surface to decompose naturally and their VOC profile was monitored during the winter and summer months. Corresponding control sites were also monitored to determine the natural VOC profile of the surrounding soil and vegetation. VOC samples were collected onto sorbent tubes and analyzed using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography--time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC × GC-TOFMS). The summer months were characterized by higher temperatures and solar radiation, greater rainfall accumulation, and comparable humidity when compared to the winter months. The rate of decomposition was faster and the number and abundance of VOCs was proportionally higher in summer. However, a similar trend was observed in winter and summer demonstrating a rapid increase in VOC abundance during active decay with a second increase in abundance occurring later in the decomposition process. Sulfur-containing compounds, alcohols and ketones represented the most abundant classes of compounds in both seasons, although almost all 10 compound classes identified contributed to discriminating the stages of decomposition throughout both seasons. The advantages of GC × GC-TOFMS were demonstrated

Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydval, Miloš; Loader, Neil J.; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Druckenbrod, Daniel L.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Moreton, Steven G.; Wood, Cheryl V.; Wilson, Rob

2017-11-01

This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. `Living-tree' chronologies were extended using `subfossil' samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology >800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July-August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866-2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s—agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe—with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.

Accidental overheating of a newborn under an infant radiant warmer: a lesson for future use.

PubMed

Molgat-Seon, Y; Daboval, T; Chou, S; Jay, O

2013-09-01

A fully functional radiant warmer induced rapid and continuous increases in regional skin temperatures, heart rate, mean arterial blood pressure and respiratory rate in a newborn patient without corrective action. We report this case of passive overheating to create awareness of the risks associated with regulating radiant heat output based upon a single servo-controlled temperature.

Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

2016-02-01

This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

Effect of summer outdoor temperatures on work-related injuries in Quebec (Canada).

PubMed

Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

2015-05-01

To quantify the associations between occupational injury compensations and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures in Quebec (Canada). The relationship between 374,078 injuries compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board (WCB) (between May and September, 2003-2010) and maximum daily outdoor temperatures was modelled using generalised linear models with negative binomial distributions. Pooled effect sizes for all 16 health regions of Quebec were estimated with random-effect models for meta-analyses for all compensations and by sex, age group, mechanism of injury, industrial sector and occupations (manual vs other) within each sector. Time lags and cumulative effect of temperatures were also explored. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures reached statistical significance for three health regions. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily compensations per 1°C increase was 1.002 (95% CI 1.002 to 1.003) for all health regions combined. Statistically significant positive associations were observed for men, workers aged less than 45 years, various industrial sectors with both indoor and outdoor activities, and for slips/trips/falls, contact with object/equipment and exposure to harmful substances/environment. Manual occupations were not systematically at higher risk than non-manual and mixed ones. This study is the first to quantify the association between work-related injury compensations and exposure to summer temperatures according to physical demands of the occupation and this warrants further investigations. In the context of global warming, results can be used to estimate future impacts of summer outdoor temperatures on workers, as well as to plan preventive interventions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperatures over different Indian Ocean domains on the Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhenning; Yang, Song

2017-11-01

The influences of spring-to-summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different domains of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the Asian summer monsoon are investigated by conducting a series of numerical experiments using the NCAR CAM4 model. It is found that, to a certain extent, the springtime IO SST anomalies can persist to the summer season. The spring-to-summer IO SST anomalies associated with the IO basin warming mode are strongly linked to the summer climate over Asia, especially the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the East Asian monsoon. Among this connection, the warming of tropical IO plays the most critical role, and the warming of southern IO is important for monsoon variation and prediction prior to the full development of the monsoon. The atmospheric response to IO basin wide warming is similar with that to tropical IO warming. The influence of northern IO warming on the SAM, however, is opposite to the effect of southern IO warming. Meanwhile, the discrepancies between the results from idealized SST forcing simulations and observations, especially for the southern IO, reveal that the dominant role of air-sea interaction in the monsoon-IO coupled system cannot be ignored. Moreover, the springtime northern IO warming seems to favor an early onset or a stronger persistence of the SAM.

Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

2017-05-01

Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

Responses of invertebrates to temperature and water stress: A polar perspective.

PubMed

Everatt, Matthew J; Convey, Pete; Bale, Jeffrey S; Worland, M Roger; Hayward, Scott A L

2015-12-01

As small bodied poikilothermic ectotherms, invertebrates, more so than any other animal group, are susceptible to extremes of temperature and low water availability. In few places is this more apparent than in the Arctic and Antarctic, where low temperatures predominate and water is unusable during winter and unavailable for parts of summer. Polar terrestrial invertebrates express a suite of physiological, biochemical and genomic features in response to these stressors. However, the situation is not as simple as responding to each stressor in isolation, as they are often faced in combination. We consider how polar terrestrial invertebrates manage this scenario in light of their physiology and ecology. Climate change is also leading to warmer summers in parts of the polar regions, concomitantly increasing the potential for drought. The interaction between high temperature and low water availability, and the invertebrates' response to them, are therefore also explored. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of BasinTemp to model summer stream temperatures in the south fork of Ten Mile River, CA

Treesearch

Rafael Real de Asua; Ethan Bell; Bruce Orr; Peter Baker; Kevin Faucher

2012-01-01

We used BasinTemp to predict summer stream temperatures in South Fork Ten Mile River (SFTMR), Mendocino County. BasinTemp is a temperature model that attempts to quantify the basin-wide effects of high summer stream temperatures in basins where the data inputs are scarce. It assumes that direct solar radiation is the chief...

In-line Microwave Warmer for Blood and Intravenous Fluids. Phase 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-02-15

occuring in the battlefield often requires restoring normothermia and infusion of fluids, such as saline or blood, into the patient. These two...elevation is required to restore normal body temperature in response to hypothermic cardioplegic arrest induced prior to the operation. 6 1.2 System... Microfiltration Devices," Acta Annaesth Scand, 23:40- 45, 1979. [20] K Linko, K Hynynen, "Erythrocyte Damage Caused by the Haemotherm Microwave Blood Warmer

Evidence for ice-free summers in the late Miocene central Arctic Ocean

PubMed Central

Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Schreck, Michael; Knorr, Gregor; Niessen, Frank; Forwick, Matthias; Gebhardt, Catalina; Jensen, Laura; Kaminski, Michael; Kopf, Achim; Matthiessen, Jens; Jokat, Wilfried; Lohmann, Gerrit

2016-01-01

Although the permanently to seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean is a unique and sensitive component in the Earth's climate system, the knowledge of its long-term climate history remains very limited due to the restricted number of pre-Quaternary sedimentary records. During Polarstern Expedition PS87/2014, we discovered multiple submarine landslides along Lomonosov Ridge. Removal of younger sediments from steep headwalls has led to exhumation of Miocene sediments close to the seafloor. Here we document the presence of IP25 as a proxy for spring sea-ice cover and alkenone-based summer sea-surface temperatures >4 °C that support a seasonal sea-ice cover with an ice-free summer season being predominant during the late Miocene in the central Arctic Ocean. A comparison of our proxy data with Miocene climate simulations seems to favour either relatively high late Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations and/or a weak sensitivity of the model to simulate the magnitude of high-latitude warming in a warmer than modern climate. PMID:27041737

Potential forcings of summer temperature variability of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the past 12 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Enlou; Chang, Jie; Sun, Weiwei; Cao, Yanmin; Langdon, Peter; Cheng, Jun

2018-06-01

Investigating potential forcing mechanisms of terrestrial summer temperature changes from the Asian summer monsoon influenced area is of importance to better understand the climate variability in these densely populated regions. The results of spectral and wavelet analyses of the published chironomid reconstructed mean July temperature data from Tiancai Lake on the SE Tibetan Plateau are presented. The evidence of solar forcing of the summer temperature variability from the site on centennial timescales where key solar periodicities (at 855 ± 40, 465 ± 40, 315 ± 40 and 165 ± 40 year) are revealed. By using a band-pass filter, coherent fluctuations were found in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and high elevation mid-latitude (26°N) terrestrial temperatures with solar sunspot cycles since about 7.6 ka. The two abrupt cooling events detected from the Tiancai Lake record, centered at ∼9.7 and 3.5 ka were examined respectively. Coupled with the paleoclimate modeling results, the early Holocene event (9.7 ka) is possibly linked to an ocean-atmospheric feedback mechanism whereas the latter event (3.5 ka) may be more directly related to external forcing.

Mars south polar spring and summer temperatures - A residual CO2 frost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kieffer, H. H.

1979-01-01

Viking infrared thermal mapper (IRTM) energy measurements over the Mars south polar cap throughout the Martian spring and summer revealed complex spatial, spectral, and temporal variations. High albedos did not directly correspond with low temperatures, and as the cap shrank to its residual position, it maintained large differences in brightness temperature between the four IRTM surface-sensing bands at 7, 9, 11, and 20 microns. The late summer infrared spectral pattern can be matched by a surface consisting of CO2 frost with 20 micron emissivity of 0.8 and about 6% dark, warm soil under a dusty atmosphere of moderate infrared opacity and spectral properties similar to those measured for the Martian global dust storms. Low temperature, the absence of appreciable water vapor in the south polar atmosphere, and the absence of surface warming expected if H2O were to become exposed, all imply that the residual south polar cap was covered by solid CO2.

Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05) of 0.25 (SD 0.61) °C in the morning and 0.24 (SD 0.50) °C in the afternoon. Differences between oral temperatures in summer and winter tended to be greater in subjects with low ADL scores, even when their room temperature was well-controlled. In conclusion, the oral temperatures of the elderly are lower in winter than summer, particularly in physically inactive people. It appears that those with low levels of ADL are more vulnerable to large changes in ambient temperature.

Vegetation placement for summer built surface temperature moderation in an urban microclimate.

PubMed

Millward, Andrew A; Torchia, Melissa; Laursen, Andrew E; Rothman, Lorne D

2014-06-01

Urban vegetation can mitigate increases in summer air temperature by reducing the solar gain received by buildings. To quantify the temperature-moderating influence of city trees and vine-covered buildings, a total of 13 pairs of temperature loggers were installed on the surfaces of eight buildings in downtown Toronto, Canada, for 6 months during the summer of 2008. One logger in each pair was shaded by vegetation while the other measured built surface temperature in full sunlight. We investigated the temperature-moderating benefits of solitary mature trees, clusters of trees, and perennial vines using a linear-mixed model and a multiple regression analysis of degree hour difference. We then assessed the temperature-moderating effect of leaf area, plant size and proximity to building, and plant location relative to solar path. During a period of high solar intensity, we measured an average temperature differential of 11.7 °C, with as many as 10-12 h of sustained cooler built surface temperatures. Vegetation on the west-facing aspect of built structures provided the greatest temperature moderation, with maximum benefit (peak temperature difference) occurring late in the afternoon. Large mature trees growing within 5 m of buildings showed the greatest ability to moderate built surface temperature, with those growing in clusters delivering limited additional benefit compared with isolated trees. Perennial vines proved as effective as trees at moderating rise in built surface temperature to the south and west sides of buildings, providing an attractive alternative to shade trees where soil volume and space are limited.

Vegetation Placement for Summer Built Surface Temperature Moderation in an Urban Microclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millward, Andrew A.; Torchia, Melissa; Laursen, Andrew E.; Rothman, Lorne D.

2014-06-01

Urban vegetation can mitigate increases in summer air temperature by reducing the solar gain received by buildings. To quantify the temperature-moderating influence of city trees and vine-covered buildings, a total of 13 pairs of temperature loggers were installed on the surfaces of eight buildings in downtown Toronto, Canada, for 6 months during the summer of 2008. One logger in each pair was shaded by vegetation while the other measured built surface temperature in full sunlight. We investigated the temperature-moderating benefits of solitary mature trees, clusters of trees, and perennial vines using a linear-mixed model and a multiple regression analysis of degree hour difference. We then assessed the temperature-moderating effect of leaf area, plant size and proximity to building, and plant location relative to solar path. During a period of high solar intensity, we measured an average temperature differential of 11.7 °C, with as many as 10-12 h of sustained cooler built surface temperatures. Vegetation on the west-facing aspect of built structures provided the greatest temperature moderation, with maximum benefit (peak temperature difference) occurring late in the afternoon. Large mature trees growing within 5 m of buildings showed the greatest ability to moderate built surface temperature, with those growing in clusters delivering limited additional benefit compared with isolated trees. Perennial vines proved as effective as trees at moderating rise in built surface temperature to the south and west sides of buildings, providing an attractive alternative to shade trees where soil volume and space are limited.

Evaluating Changes in Distributions of Summer Stream Temperature following Forest Harvest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, S. L.; Reiter, M.; Jones, J.

2016-12-01

Stream temperature heat budgets are influenced by numerous processes; changes in incoming radiation have been shown to be a major driver of increased stream temperatures. Maximum daily temperature is a commonly used metric for evaluating stream temperature responses to land use. However, single metrics are not able to fully represent the magnitude and duration of temperatures experienced by instream biota. Analyses that make use of all the data: a) more accurately characterize shifts in summer stream temperature regimes, b) quantify potential exposure to critical and non-critical temperatures, and c) help researchers and managers to better understand stream temperature responses to manipulation of streamside and watershed vegetation. Here we examine the distributions of summer stream temperatures before and after forest harvest in the Trask River Watershed Study, in northwestern Oregon. We studied 15 small streams for 10 years; half of the sites had their catchments clearcut harvested in 2012. Four sites had no buffers, with some leave trees, and three sites had 25 ft buffers on both sides. Temperatures were measured during at 30min intervals. Even though these streams are generally cold, we observed high spatial and temporal variation among sites and years, with some sites having normally distributed temperatures, while others showed skewed distributions and long tails. Forest cover, aspect or elevation were not good predictors of temperature distributions pre-harvest. Preliminary analyses using travel time of the stream water suggest that sites with hyporheic flows had narrower distributions of temperatures. After harvest, sites without buffers showed the greatest shift in distributions of temperatures and widest temperature ranges, while sites with narrow buffers showed little change. We are exploring the implications of shifts in temperature distributions before and after harvest against the known thermal tolerances for the dominant resident species (Ascaphus

The variability of California summertime marine stratus: impacts on surface air temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

This study investigates the variability of clouds, primarily marine stratus clouds, and how they are associated with surface temperature anomalies over California, especially along the coastal margin. We focus on the summer months of June to September when marine stratus are the dominant cloud type. Data used include satellite cloud reflectivity (cloud albedo) measurements, hourly surface observations of cloud cover and air temperature at coastal airports, and observed values of daily surface temperature at stations throughout California and Nevada. Much of the anomalous variability of summer clouds is organized over regional patterns that affect considerable portions of the coast, often extend hundreds of kilometers to the west and southwest over the North Pacific, and are bounded to the east by coastal mountains. The occurrence of marine stratus is positively correlated with both the strength and height of the thermal inversion that caps the marine boundary layer, with inversion base height being a key factor in determining their inland penetration. Cloud cover is strongly associated with surface temperature variations. In general, increased presence of cloud (higher cloud albedo) produces cooler daytime temperatures and warmer nighttime temperatures. Summer daytime temperature fluctuations associated with cloud cover variations typically exceed 1°C. The inversion-cloud albedo-temperature associations that occur at daily timescales are also found at seasonal timescales.

Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

2015-12-01

The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Durner, George M.; Anderson-Sprecher, R.; Albeke, Shannon E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Ben-David, M.

2015-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of “ice” bears in summer is unknown, “shore” bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation.

East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Historical Perspective of the 1998 Flood over Yangtze River

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weng, H.-Y.; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

One of the main factors that might have caused the disastrous flood in China during 1998 summer is long-term variations that include a trend indicating increasing monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. China's 160-station monthly rainfall anomaly for the summers of 1955-98 is analyzed for exploring such long-term variations. Singular value decomposition (SVD) between the summer rainfall and the global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reveals that the rainfall over Yangtze River Valley is closely related to global and regional SST variabilities at both interannual and interdecadal timescales. SVD1 mode links the above normal rainfall condition in central China to an El Nino-like SSTA distribution, varying on interannual timescale modified by a trend during the period. SVD3 mode links positive rainfall anomaly in Yangtze River Valley to the warm SST anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific, varying on interannual timescales modified by interdecadal timescales. This link tends to be stronger when the Nino3 area becomes colder and the western subtropical Pacific becomes warmer. The 1998 summer is a transition season when the 1997/98 El Nino event was in its decaying phase, and the SST in the Nino3 area emerged below normal anomaly while the subtropical western Pacific SST above normal. Thus, the first and third SVD modes become dominant in 1998 summer, favoring more Asian summer monsoon rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley.

Differences and Similarities in MaCWAVE Summer and Winter Temperatures and Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidlin, F. J.; Goldberg, R. A.

2008-01-01

Small meteorological rockets released inflatable falling spheres during the MaCWAVE Campaign. The Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically Experiment (MaCWAVE) was carried out in two parts, a summer sequence from Andoya Rocket Range (69N) during July 2002 to examine convective initiation of gravity waves and a winter sequence from ESRANGE (68N) during January 2003 to examine mountain-terrain initiated gravity waves. The sphere-tracked data provided significant information about the variation of temperature and wind from 70 km and above. The changes observed may be considered akin to tidal motion; unfortunately the launch activity was restricted to 12-hour periods, thus the observation of a full diurnal cycle was not possible. During summer, temperature variation was smaller than that observed during winter when peak to null differences reached 15-20 K at 80-85 km. Variation in the zonal winds varied up to 100+mps in summer and winter. Examination of the times of peak wind vs altitude showed that the peak zonal wind occurred approximately two hours ahead of the peak meridional wind. We provide details about the measurements and observed variations.

The Golden Canopies (Infant Radiant Warmer)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

The cradle warmer is based on technology in heated transparent materials developed by Sierracin Corporation, Sylmar, California he original application was in heated faceplates for the pressure suit heated faceplates worn by pilots of an Air Force/NASA reconnaissance and weather research plane. Later, Sierracin advanced the technology for other applications, among them the cockpit windows of the NASA X-15 supersonic research vehicle and the helmet faceplates of Apollo astronauts. Adapting the technology to hospital needs, Sierracin teamed with Cavitron Corporation, Anaheim, California, which produces the cradle warmer and two other systems employing Sierracin's electrically-heated transparencies. Working to combat the infant mortality rate, hospitals are continually upgrading delivery room and nursery care techniques. Many have special procedures and equipment to protect infants during the "period of apprehension," the critical six to 12 hours after delivery. One such item of equipment is an aerospace spinoff called the Infant Radiant Warmer, a "golden canopy" which provides uniform, controlled warmth to the infant's cradle. Warmth is vitally important to all newborns, particularly premature babies; they lose heat more rapidly than adults because they have greater surface area in comparison with body mass.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition.

PubMed

Goodsman, Devin W; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H; Whitehouse, Caroline; Bleiker, Katherine P; McDowell, Nate G; Middleton, Richard S; Xu, Chonggang

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2 , that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

DOE PAGES

Goodsman, Devin W.; Grosklos, Guenchik; Aukema, Brian H.; ...

2018-05-29

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km 2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountainmore » pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

Summer Temperature Extremes in the Northern Rockies: A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction (1670-2014) from the Bighorn Mountains, WY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, A.; Alfaro-Sanchez, R.; Belmecheri, S.; Moore, D. J.; Trouet, V.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has caused global temperatures to rise in recent decades. Temperatures at the regional scale are influenced by various factors including topography, atmospheric circulation, and seasonality that superimpose year-to-year variability on this global warming trend. Here, we develop a tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the northern Rockies in order to investigate the drivers of the year-to-year temperature variability in this region. For this purpose, we sampled 10 sites in the semi-arid Bighorn Mountains, WY and developed two tree-ring width chronologies for differing elevations. The high elevation Picea engelmannii chronology (>2,630m) is positively correlated with July temperature variability, whereas the low elevation (<2,580m) chronology - consisting of Pinus contorta, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Pinus albicaulis - is sensitive to summer precipitation and negatively correlated with June and July temperatures. A reconstruction based on a combination of the two chronologies explains 30% of the variance in regional June and July temperatures over the instrumental period, covers the period 1670-2014, and is representative for the central United States and southern Canada region. Our reconstruction shows significantly lower summer temperatures in the year following the 16 largest tropical eruptions from 1670 to the present. The reconstruction further captures the high summer temperatures during the 1930s dust bowl era and shows a steep increase in variance in the late 20th century. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific, which suggests an impact of an amplified meridional flow on northern Rockies summer temperatures.

North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Rachel E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R.

2014-05-01

Six decades of observations at 20 coastal airports, from Alaska to southern California, reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) from summer to summer over this broad region. The leading mode of CLC variability represents coherent variation, accounting for nearly 40% of the total CLC variance spanning 1950-2012. This leading mode and the majority of individual airports exhibit decreased low cloudiness from the earlier to the later part of the record. Exploring climatic controls on CLC, we identify North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, largely in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as well correlated with, and evidently helping to organize, the coherent patterns of summer coastal cloud variability. Links from the PDO to summer CLC appear a few months in advance of the summer. These associations hold up consistently in interannual and interdecadal frequencies.

Differences and Similarities between Summer and Winter Temperatures and Winds during MaCWAVE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidlin, F. J.; Goldberg, R. A.

2008-01-01

The Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically Experiment (MaCWAVE) was carried out in two sequences: one during the summer from the Andoya Rocket Range (69N) during July 2002 to examine convective initiation of gravity waves. The second was a winter sequence from ESRANGE (68N) during January 2003 to examine mountain-initiated waves. Inflatable falling spheres released from small meteorological rockets provided significant information about the variation of temperature and wind from 50 km and higher. The small rocket launch activity was restricted to 12-hour periods that inhibited observing a full diurnal cycle, nonetheless, the time-history of the measurements have provided information about tidal motion. During summer, temperature variation was smaller than observed during winter when peak differences reached 15-20 K at 80-85 km. variation in zonal winds varied up to more than 100 mps in summer and winter. Times of wind vs. altitude showed that the peak zonal component occurred approximately two hours ahead of the peak meridional wind. Measurement details and the observed variations are discussed.

[Quality Improvement Project: Increasing the Rate of Proper Use of Infant Transferring Warmers].

PubMed

Huang, Hsiu-Yu; Fann, Guei-Ling

2015-10-01

Infant-transferring warmers provide a warm environment and emergency care facilities such ventilators for high-risk infants during transport. Accurate use of this warmer has been demonstrated to reduce rates of neonatal complications and increase rates of survival. This project found that, despite the complaints of nurses that warmers occasionally malfunctioned during the transfer process, warmer functions nearly always tested normal after use. Therefore, the researchers surveyed ward nurses to better understand the underlying reasons for these complaints. Results found that only 68.4% of those surveyed operated the warmer correctly. The reasons for improper use were analyzed and categorized as: Nurse-related factors - lack of warmer operating knowledge and experience in the clinic; System-related factors - lack of a standard operating procedure (SOP) and monitor/audit practices and an incomplete training protocol; Equipment-related factors - lack of an equipment preparation SOP and difficulties in setting the ventilator properly. The purpose of this project was to achieve a 100% rate of proper warmer use among nurses. Through continuous clinical education, we created a standard operating procedure for warmer operation, created a video and poster for warmer users, simplified the equipment preparation SOP, and periodically monitored and checked results. After the intervention, 100% of the nurses were able to use the warmers correctly. Additionally, the rate of satisfaction for nursing-warmer use among the participating nurses increased from 51.4% to 80.6%. This project effectively increased the rate for correctly using transferring warmers among participating nurses and improved the quality of medical care.

Influence of changing surface temperature gradients on mid-latitudinal circulation and western hemispheric summer temperature extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornhuber, Kai; Hoffmann, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-04-01

Many recent summers in the Northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes have seen severe heatwaves (2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015, (Black et al. 2004; Diffenbaugh & Scherer 2013; Russo et al. 2014; Hoy et al. 2016)). During many of those extremes the mid-latitudinal tropospheric circulation was characterized by an amplified, quasi-stationary and hemispheric wave pattern with a dominant influence of wavenumber seven (Coumou et al. 2014; Petoukhov et al. 2016; Kornhuber et al. 2016). Analyzing NH summer reanalysis data we show that the position where these heat extremes occur is not arbitrary. If the amplitude of wave seven is large, the wave gets "locked" in a specific preferred phase position. As a consequence of this phase-locking behavior some regions are more likely to experience extreme weather during high-amplitude events. Meridional wind speeds associated with the preferred phase are particularly strong over longitudes of the western hemisphere (180°W - 40°E) leading to positive temperature anomalies over the US and Western Europe. Using a widely-used blocking-index we demonstrate that longitudes over these regions experience an increased probability of blocking during high amplitude wave seven events. We show that during the above mentioned extreme summers, amplified waves were locked in their preferred phase-position creating the right dynamical background condition for severe heatwaves to occur. Further, regression analyses reveal that a pronounced Ocean - Land temperature contrast (Tdiff) and weak poleward surface temperature gradient (dT/dy) are associated with an amplified wave seven in its preferred phase-position. Our study suggests that the observed positive trend in Tdiff and negative trend in dT/dy favors the occurrence of high-amplitude, quasi-stationary wave seven in its preferred phase position and therefore persistent heatwaves in the US and western Europe.

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal)more » and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.« less

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE PAGES

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; ...

2015-04-07

This study analyzes a suite of global climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the twenty-first century. An increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures, which overwhelms the weakening of monsoon circulation and results in an increase of moisture convergence and therefore summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Moisture source analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal)more » and remote (including the south Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century. Finally, the results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the nonstationary moisture-driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the twenty-first century.« less

Comparison of the Decomposition VOC Profile during Winter and Summer in a Moist, Mid-Latitude (Cfb) Climate

PubMed Central

Forbes, Shari L.; Perrault, Katelynn A.; Stefanuto, Pierre-Hugues; Nizio, Katie D.; Focant, Jean-François

2014-01-01

The investigation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) associated with decomposition is an emerging field in forensic taphonomy due to their importance in locating human remains using biological detectors such as insects and canines. A consistent decomposition VOC profile has not yet been elucidated due to the intrinsic impact of the environment on the decomposition process in different climatic zones. The study of decomposition VOCs has typically occurred during the warmer months to enable chemical profiling of all decomposition stages. The present study investigated the decomposition VOC profile in air during both warmer and cooler months in a moist, mid-latitude (Cfb) climate as decomposition occurs year-round in this environment. Pig carcasses (Sus scrofa domesticus L.) were placed on a soil surface to decompose naturally and their VOC profile was monitored during the winter and summer months. Corresponding control sites were also monitored to determine the natural VOC profile of the surrounding soil and vegetation. VOC samples were collected onto sorbent tubes and analyzed using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography – time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC-TOFMS). The summer months were characterized by higher temperatures and solar radiation, greater rainfall accumulation, and comparable humidity when compared to the winter months. The rate of decomposition was faster and the number and abundance of VOCs was proportionally higher in summer. However, a similar trend was observed in winter and summer demonstrating a rapid increase in VOC abundance during active decay with a second increase in abundance occurring later in the decomposition process. Sulfur-containing compounds, alcohols and ketones represented the most abundant classes of compounds in both seasons, although almost all 10 compound classes identified contributed to discriminating the stages of decomposition throughout both seasons. The advantages of GC×GC-TOFMS were demonstrated for

Size-dependent survival of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in summer: effects of water temperature and stream flow.

PubMed

Xu, C L; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

2010-06-01

A 5 year individual-based data set was used to estimate size-specific survival rates in a wild brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis population in a stream network encompassing a mainstem and three tributaries (1.5-6 m wetted width), western Massachusetts, U.S.A. The relationships between survival in summer and temperature and flow metrics derived from continuous monitoring data were then tested. Increased summer temperatures significantly reduced summer survival rates for S. fontinalis in almost all size classes in all four sites throughout the network. In contrast, extreme low summer flows reduced survival of large fish, but only in small tributaries, and had no significant effects on fish in smaller size classes in any location. These results provide direct evidence of a link between season-specific survival and environmental factors likely to be affected by climate change and have important consequences for the management of both habitats and populations.

Vulnerability of crops and native grasses to summer drying in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

DOE PAGES

Raz-Yaseef, Naama; Billesbach, Dave P.; Fischer, Marc L.; ...

2015-08-31

The Southern Great Plains are characterized by a fine-scale mixture of different land-cover types, predominantly winter-wheat and grazed pasture, with relatively small areas of other crops, native prairie, and switchgrass. Recent droughts and predictions of increased drought in the Southern Great Plains, especially during the summer months, raise concern for these ecosystems. We measured ecosystem carbon and water fluxes with eddy-covariance systems over cultivated cropland for 10 years, and over lightly grazed prairie and new switchgrass fields for 2 years each. Growing-season precipitation showed the strongest control over net carbon uptake for all ecosystems, but with a variable effect: grassesmore » (prairie and switchgrass) needed at least 350 mm of precipitation during the growing season to become net carbon sinks, while crops needed only 100 mm. In summer, high temperatures enhanced evaporation and led to higher likelihood of dry soil conditions. Therefore, summer-growing native prairie species and switchgrass experienced more seasonal droughts than spring-growing crops. For wheat, the net reduction in carbon uptake resulted mostly from a decrease in gross primary production rather than an increase in respiration. Flux measurements suggested that management practices for crops were effective in suppressing evapotranspiration and decomposition (by harvesting and removing secondary growth), and in increasing carbon uptake (by fertilizing and conserving summer soil water). In light of future projections for wetter springs and drier and warmer summers in the Southern Great Plains, our study indicates an increased vulnerability in native ecosystems and summer crops over time.« less

Use of diets formulated for summer water temperatures in pond production of hybrid striped bass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Elevated water temperatures are common in hybrid striped bass or Sunshine bass (HSB; Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis) production ponds during summer months in the southern US. Median daily water temperatures often exceed 30 C from June through September. This experiment was conducted to extend and re...

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulikowska, Agnieszka; Walawender, Jakub P.; Walawender, Ewelina

2018-06-01

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951-2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (T MAX) and minima (T MIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level. WD (CD) is defined as a day with T MAX above the 95th (T MIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed. The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for T MAX as opposed to T MIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies). The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Low summer water temperatures influence occurrence of naturalized salmonids across a mountain watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullner, S.A.; Hubert, W.A.

2005-01-01

We investigated relationships between the absence of salmonids and low summer water temperatures across a 150-km2 Rocky Mountain watershed. A model predicting maximum July water temperature (MJT) from measurements of perennial stream length, wetted width, and midrange basin elevation was developed from temperature data obtained at 20 sites across the watershed. The model was used to predict MJT in 75 reaches across the watershed where salmonids were sampled. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 and juvenile-adult brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis were observed was 9??C. The lowest predicted MJT in reaches where age-0 progeny of the genus Oncorhynchus spp. (i.e., rainbow trout O. mykiss or cutthroat trout O. clarkii) were observed was 13??C and where Oncorhynchus spp. adults where observed was 12??C. The probability of occurrence of both age-0 and adult brook trout and Oncorhynchus spp. increased as MJT increased above these thresholds. Our results indicate that low MJT in some portions of a mountain watershed can be related to the absence of salmonids. Consequently, data on MJT may provide managers with a means of assessing where summer water temperatures are not suitable for establishment of naturalized salmonid populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Association between summer temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children: An ecological analysis.

PubMed

Yokoya, Masana; Higuchi, Yukito

2016-11-01

Several experimental studies reported evidence of a negative energy balance at higher temperatures. However, corresponding weight loss has not been noted in clinical practice. This study investigated the geographical association between outdoor temperature and body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. An ecological analysis was conducted using prefecture-level data on the mean body weight of Japanese adolescents and children over a 25-year period and Japanese mesh (regional) climatic data on the mean annual temperature, mean daily maximum temperature in August, and mean daily minimum temperature in January were also analyzed. Correlation analysis uncovered a stronger association between weight and the mean daily maximum temperature in August than with other climatic variables. Moreover, multiple regression analysis indicated that height and the mean daily maximum temperature in August were statistically significant predictors of weight. This suggests that geographical differences in weight in Japanese adolescents and children can be explained by the complementary relationship between height-associated weight gain and weight loss caused by summer heat. Summer temperatures may reduce the proportion of children who are overweight and contribute to geographical differences in body weight in Japanese adolescents and children. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:789-795, 2016. © 2016Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Wilson, Rob; Briffa, Keith R.; Büntgen, Ulf; Cook, Edward R.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Davi, Nicole; Esper, Jan; Frank, David; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Hegerl, Gabi; Helama, Samuli; Klesse, Stefan; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Myglan, Vladimir; Osborn, Timothy J.; Zhang, Peng; Rydval, Milos; Schneider, Lea; Schurer, Andrew; Wiles, Greg; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-05-01

Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regional-scale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (May-August) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90°N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750-1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.

Temperature histories from tree rings and corals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, E.R.

1995-05-01

Recent temperature trends in long tree-ring and coral proxy temperature histories are evaluated and compared in an effort to objectively determine how anomalous twentieth century temperature changes have been. These histories mostly reflect regional variations in summer warmth from the tree rings and annual warmth from the corals. In the Northern Hemisphere. the North American tree-ring temperature histories and those from the north Polar Urals, covering the past 1000 or more years, indicate that the twentieth century has been anomalously warm relative to the past. In contrast, the tree-ring history from northern Fennoscandia indicates that summer temperatures during the {open_quote}Medievalmore » Warm Period{close_quote} were probably warmer on average than those than during this century. In the Southern Hemisphere, the tree-ring temperature histories from South America show no indication of recent warming, which is in accordance with local instrumental records. In contrast, the tree-ring, records from Tasmania and New Zealand indicate that the twentieth century has been unusually warm particularly since 1960. The coral temperature histories from the Galapagos Islands and the Great Barrier Reef are in broad agreement with the tree-ring temperature histories in those sectors, with the former showing recent cooling and the latter showing recent warming that may be unprecedented. Overall, the regional temperature histories evaluated here broadly support the larger-scale evidence for anomalous twentieth century warming based on instrumental records. However, this warming cannot be confirmed as an unprecedented event in all regions. 38 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.« less

A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wechsung, Frank; Wechsung, Maximilian

2016-11-01

The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Piao, Shilong; Delpierre, Nicolas; Hao, Fanghua; Hänninen, Heikki; Liu, Yongjie; Sun, Wenchao; Janssens, Ivan A; Campioli, Matteo

2018-05-01

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Animal physiology. Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings.

PubMed

Whiteman, J P; Harlow, H J; Durner, G M; Anderson-Sprecher, R; Albeke, S E; Regehr, E V; Amstrup, S C; Ben-David, M

2015-07-17

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of "ice" bears in summer is unknown, "shore" bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Herrera, R.; Díaz, J.; Trigo, R. M.; Hernández, E.

2005-02-01

This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP), 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air flows over the

Radiant energy and insensible water loss in the premature newborn infant nursed under a radiant warmer.

PubMed

Baumgart, S

1982-10-01

Radiant warmers are a powerful and efficient source of heat serving to warm the cold-stressed infant acutely and to provide uninterrupted maintenance of body temperature despite a multiplicity of nursing, medical, and surgical procedures required to care for the critically ill premature newborn in today's intensive care nursery. A recognized side-effect of radiant warmer beds is the now well-documented increase in insensible water loss through evaporation from an infant's skin. Particularly the very-low-birth-weight, severely premature, and critically ill neonate is subject to this increase in evaporative water loss. The clinician caring for the infant is faced with the difficult problem of fluid and electrolyte balance, which requires vigilant monitoring of all parameters of fluid homeostasis. Compounding these difficulties, other portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (for example, phototherapy) may affect an infant's fluid metabolism by mechanisms that are not well understood. The role of plastic heat shielding in reducing large insensible losses in infants nursed on radiant warmer beds is currently under intense investigation. Apparently, convective air currents and not radiant heat energy may be the cause of the observed increase in insensible water loss in the intensive care nursery. A thin plastic blanket may be effective in reducing evaporative water loss by diminishing an infant's exposure to convective air currents while being nursed on an open radiant warmer bed. A rigid plastic body hood, although effective as a radiant heat shield, is not as effective in preventing exposure to convection in the intensive care nursery and, therefore, is not as effective as the thin plastic blanket in reducing insensible water loss. Care should be exercised in determining the effect of heat shielding on all parameters of heat exchange (convection, evaporation, and radiation) before application is made to the critically ill premature infant nursed on an open radiant

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

The impact of future summer temperature on public health in Barcelona and Catalonia, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostro, Bart; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Ballester, Joan; Basagaña, Xavier; Sunyer, Jordi

2012-11-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure-response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, "business-as-usual" scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI 340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960-1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.

Performance comparison of improvised prehospital blood warming techniques and a commercial blood warmer.

PubMed

Milligan, James; Lee, Anna; Gill, Martin; Weatherall, Andrew; Tetlow, Chloe; Garner, Alan A

2016-08-01

Prehospital transfusion of packed red blood cells (PRBC) may be life saving for hypovolaemic trauma patients. PRBCs should preferably be warmed prior to administration but practical prehospital devices have only recently become available. The effectiveness of purpose designed prehospital warmers compared with previously used improvised methods of warming has not previously been described. Expired units of PRBCs were randomly assigned to a warming method in a bench study. Warming methods were exposure to body heat of an investigator, leaving the blood in direct sunlight on a dark material, wrapping the giving set around gel heat pads or a commercial fluid warmer (Belmont Buddy Lite). Methods were compared with control units that were run through the fluid circuit with no active warming strategy. The mean temperature was similar for all methods on removal from the fridge (4.5°C). The mean temperatures (degrees centigrade) for all methods were higher than the control group at the end of the circuit (all P≤0.001). For each method the mean (95% CI) temperature at the end of the circuit was; body heat 17.2 (16.4-18.0), exposure to sunlight 20.2 (19.4-21.0), gel heat pads 18.8 (18.0-19.6), Buddy Lite 35.2 (34.5-36.0) and control group 14.7 (13.9-15.5). All of the warming methods significantly warmed the blood but only the Buddy Lite reliably warmed the blood to a near normal physiological level. Improvised warming methods therefore cannot be recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

INFLUENCE OF SUMMER TEMPERATURE SPATIAL VARIABILITY ON DISTRIBUTION AND CONDITION OF JUVENILE COHO SALMON

EPA Science Inventory

abstract

Temperature during the summer months can influence the distribution, abundance and physiology of stream salmonids such as coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). Effects can be direct, via physiological responses, as well as indirect, via limited food resources, alter...

The oasis effect and summer temperature rise in arid regions - case study in Tarim Basin

PubMed Central

Hao, Xingming; Li, Weihong; Deng, Haijun

2016-01-01

This study revealed the influence of the oasis effect on summer temperatures based on MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) and meteorological data. The results showed that the oasis effect occurs primarily in the summer. For a single oasis, the maximum oasis cold island intensity based on LST (OCILST) was 3.82 °C and the minimum value was 2.32 °C. In terms of the annual change in OCILST, the mean value of all oases ranged from 2.47 °C to 3.56 °C from 2001 to 2013. Net radiation (Rn) can be used as a key predictor of OCILST and OCItemperature (OCI based on air temperature). On this basis, we reconstructed a long time series (1961–2014) of OCItemperature and Tbase(air temperature without the disturbance of oasis effect). Our results indicated that the reason for the increase in the observed temperatures was the significant decrease in the OCItemperature over the past 50 years. In arid regions, the data recorded in weather stations not only underestimated the mean temperature of the entire study area but also overestimated the increasing trend of the temperature. These discrepancies are due to the limitations in the spatial distribution of weather stations and the disturbance caused by the oasis effect. PMID:27739500

The impact of future summer temperature on public health in Barcelona and Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Ostro, Bart; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Ballester, Joan; Basagaña, Xavier; Sunyer, Jordi

2012-11-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure-response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, "business-as-usual" scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI  340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960-1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.

Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Johannes P.; Divine, Dmitry V.; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Nilsen, Tine; Francus, Pierre

2018-04-01

In this article, the first spatially resolved and millennium-length summer (June-August) temperature reconstruction over the Arctic and sub-Arctic domain (north of 60° N) is presented. It is based on a set of 44 annually dated temperature-sensitive proxy archives of various types from the revised PAGES2k database supplemented with six new recently updated proxy records. As a major advance, an extension of the Bayesian BARCAST climate field (CF) reconstruction technique provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties. This results not only in a more precise reconstruction but additionally enables joint probabilistic constraints to be imposed on the chronologies of the used archives. The new seasonal CF reconstruction for the Arctic region can be shown to be skilful for the majority of the terrestrial nodes. The decrease in the proxy data density back in time, however, limits the analyses in the spatial domain to the period after 750 CE, while the spatially averaged reconstruction covers the entire time interval of 1-2002 CE.The centennial to millennial evolution of the reconstructed temperature is in good agreement with a general pattern that was inferred in recent studies for the Arctic and its subregions. In particular, the reconstruction shows a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; here ca. 920-1060 CE), which was characterised by a sequence of extremely warm decades over the whole domain. The medieval warming was followed by a gradual cooling into the Little Ice Age (LIA), with 1766-1865 CE as the longest centennial-scale cold period, culminating around 1811-1820 CE for most of the target region.In total over 600 independent realisations of the temperature CF were generated. As showcased for local and regional trends and temperature anomalies, operating in a probabilistic framework directly results in comprehensive uncertainty estimates, even for complex analyses. For the presented multi-scale trend analysis, for example, the spread in

River Temperature Dynamics and Habitat Characteristics as Predictors of Salmonid Abundance using Fiber-Optic Distributed Temperature Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gryczkowski, L.; Gallion, D.; Haeseker, S.; Bower, R.; Collier, M.; Selker, J. S.; Scherberg, J.; Henry, R.

2011-12-01

Salmonids require cool water for all life stages, including spawning and growth. Excessive water temperature causes reduced growth and increased disease and mortality. During the summer, salmonids seek local zones of cooler water as a refuge from elevated temperatures. They also prefer specific habitat features such as boulders and overhanging vegetation. The purpose of this study is to determine whether temperature dynamics or commonly measured fish habitat metrics best explain salmonid abundance. The study site was a 2-kilometer reach of the Walla Walla River near Milton-Freewater, OR, USA, which provides habitat for the salmonids chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), steelhead/rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni), and the endangered bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). The Walla Walla River is listed as an impaired water body under section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act due to temperature. The associated total maximum daily load (TMDL) calls for temperatures to be below 18 °C at all times for salmonid rearing and migration; however, river temperatures surpassed 24 °C in parts of the study reach in 2009. The two largest factors contributing to the warmer water are reduced riparian vegetation, which decreases shading and increases direct solar radiation, and decreased summer flows caused by diversions and irrigation for agriculture. Fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing has emerged as a unique and powerful tool for ecological applications because of its high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, meter-scale temperature measurements were obtained at 15-minute intervals along the length of the study reach, allowing for the detection and quantification of cold water inflows during the summer of 2009. The cold water inflows were classified as groundwater or hyporheic sources based on the diurnal temperature patterns. Snorkel surveys were conducted in mid-July and mid-August, 2009 to enumerate salmonid

In-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, under various flow conditions.

PubMed

Higashi, Midoriko; Yamaura, Ken; Matsubara, Yukie; Fukudome, Takuya; Hoka, Sumio

2015-04-01

Roller pump infusion devices are widely used for rapid infusion, and may be combined with separate warming devices. There may be instances however, where the pressures generated by the roller pump may not be compatible with the warming device. We assessed a commonly used roller pump in combination with a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, and found that it could generate pressures exceeding the HOTLINE® manufacturers specifications. This was of concern because the HOTLINE® manufacturer guideline states that not for use with pressure devices generating over 300 mmHg. Pressure greater than 300 mmHg may compromise the integrity of the HOTLINE® Fluid Warming Set. The aim of this study was to compare in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer at different infusion rates of a roller pump using various sizes of intravenous cannulae. The rapid infusion system comprised a 500 mL-normal saline bag, roller pump type infusion device, HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer (blood and fluid warmer system), and six different sizes of intravenous cannulae. In-line pressure was measured proximal to the HOTLINE® (pre-warmer) and proximal to the cannula (post-warmer), at flow rate of 50-160 mL/min. The in-line pressures increased significantly with increasing flow rate. The pre-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg when the flow rate was ≥120 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm length cannula, 130 with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 18-gauge, 48 mm cannula. However, they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18-gauge, 30 mm cannula and 16-gauge cannulae. The post-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg at the flow rate of 140 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, while they were <300 mmHg at any flow rates with 18 and 16-gauge cannulae. The in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® could exceed 300 mmHg, depending on the flow rate and size and length of cannula. It is important to pay attention to the size and length of cannulae and flow rate to keep the maximum

Pumps and warmers during amnioinfusion: is either necessary?

PubMed

Glantz, J C; Letteney, D L

1996-01-01

To determine if there is evidence from published reports that the use of infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion is beneficial. We identified all English-language amnioinfusion reports published since 1983 through Medline and references. Fourteen prospective papers with at least 40 subjects were identified. For the amnioinfusion and control groups in each study, odds ratios (OR) were calculated for cesarean delivery, fetal distress, meconium below the cords, low 5-minute Apgar score, and endometritis. Cumulative ORs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel inverse variance method. This process was repeated after separation into pump-gravity and warmed-unwarmed groups. Multiple regression analyses were performed. Amnioinfusion improved the ability of the fetus to tolerate labor (fetal distress OR 0.40), decreased the incidence of meconium below the cords (OR 0.16), and decreased the rate of cesarean delivery (OR 0.56). There were no demonstrable benefits associated with the use of warmers or pumps. In multiple regression analysis, infusion pumps were associated with a significantly increased risk of fetal distress (P = .01). The use of amnioinfusion is associated with a decreased risk of fetal distress, meconium below the cords, and cesarean delivery. To date, there is no demonstrable benefit using infusion pumps or solution warmers during amnioinfusion.

Dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high and the marine boundary layer clouds in boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Wei; Li, Wenhong; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Huang, Lei; Liu, W. Timothy

2018-04-01

This study investigates dynamical and thermodynamical coupling between the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, and the local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Atlantic in boreal summer for 1984-2009 using NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 dataset, various cloud data, and the Hadley Centre sea surface temperature. On interannual timescales, the summer mean subtropical MBL clouds to the southeast of the NASH is actively coupled with the NASH and local SSTs: a stronger (weaker) NASH is often accompanied with an increase (a decrease) of MBL clouds and abnormally cooler (warmer) SSTs along the southeast flank of the NASH. To understand the physical processes between the NASH and the MBL clouds, the authors conduct a data diagnostic analysis and implement a numerical modeling investigation using an idealized anomalous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Results suggest that significant northeasterly anomalies in the southeast flank of the NASH associated with an intensified NASH tend to induce stronger cold advection and coastal upwelling in the MBL cloud region, reducing the boundary surface temperature. Meanwhile, warm advection associated with the easterly anomalies from the African continent leads to warming over the MBL cloud region at 700 hPa. Such warming and the surface cooling increase the atmospheric static stability, favoring growth of the MBL clouds. The anomalous diabatic cooling associated with the growth of the MBL clouds dynamically excites an anomalous anticyclone to its north and contributes to strengthening of the NASH circulation in its southeast flank. The dynamical and thermodynamical couplings and their associated variations in the NASH, MBL clouds, and SSTs constitute an important aspect of the summer climate variability over the North Atlantic.

Influence of Flow Regulation on Summer Water Temperature: Sauce Grande River, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casado, A.; Hannah, D. M.; Peiry, J.; Campo, A. M.

2012-12-01

This study quantifies the effects of the Paso de las Piedras Dam on the thermal behaviour of the Sauce Grande River, Argentina, during a summer season. A 30-day data set of continuous hourly data was assembled for eight stream temperature gauging sites deployed above and below the impoundment. Time series span the hottest period recorded during summer 2009 to evaluate variations in river water temperature under strong meteorological influence. The methods include: (i) analysis of the time series by inspecting the absolute differences in daily data (magnitude, timing, frequency, duration and rate of change), (ii) classification of diurnal regimes by using a novel regime 'shape' and 'magnitude' classifying method (RSMC), and (ii) quantification of the sensitivity of water temperature regimes to air temperature by computation of a novel sensitivity index (SI). Results showed that fluctuations in daily water temperatures were linked to meteorological drivers; however, spatial variability in the shape and the magnitude of the thermographs revealed the effects of the impoundment in regulating the thermal behaviour of the river downstream. An immediate cooling effect below the dam was evident. Mean daily temperatures were reduced in up to 4 °C, and described a warming trend in the downstream direction over a distance of at least 15 km (up to +2.3 °C). Diurnal cycles were reduced in amplitude and delayed in timing, and revealed a dominance of regime magnitude stability and regime shape climatic insensitivity over a distance of 8 km downstream. These findings provide new information about the water quality of the Sauce Grande River and inform management of flows to maintain the ecological integrity of the river system. Also, they motivate further analysis of potential correlates under varying hydrological and meteorological conditions. The methods presented herein have wider applicability for quantifying river thermal regimes and their sensitivity to climate and other

Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2018-01-01

Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

PubMed

Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

2014-09-01

Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

INFLUENCE OF SUMMER STREAM TEMPERATURES ON BLACK SPOT INFESTATION OF JUVENILE COHO SALMON IN THE OREGON COAST RANGE

EPA Science Inventory

High summer water temperatures can adversely affect stream salmonids in numerous ways. The direct effects of temperature associated with increased metabolic demand can be exacerbated by other factors, including decreased resistance to disease and increased susceptibility to para...

The simulation of stratospheric water vapor in the NH summer monsoon regions in a suite of WACCM models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Wu, Y.; Huang, Y.; Tilmes, S.

2016-12-01

Water vapor maxima are found in the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) over Asian and North America monsoon regions during Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer months. High concentrations of stratospheric water vapor are associated with the upper-level anticyclonic circulation and they play an important role in the radiative forcing for the climate system. However, discrepancies in the simulation of stratospheric water vapor are found among different models. In this study, we use both observational data: Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite observations (MLS), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and chemistry climate model outputs: different configurations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), including standard configuration of WACCM, WACCM L110, specified chemistry (SC) WACCM and specified dynamics (SD) WACCM. We find that WACCM L110 with finer vertical resolution better simulates the stratospheric water vapor maxima over the summer monsoon regions. To better understand the mechanism, we examine the simulated temperature at around 100 hPa since 100 hPa is known to act as a dehydration mechanism, i.e. the warmer the temperature, the wetter the stratospheric water vapor. We find that both WACCM L110 and SD-WACCM better simulate the temperature at 100 hPa as compared to that of MERRA2. This suggests that improving model vertical resolution and dynamical processes in the UTLS is crucial in simulating the stratospheric water vapor concentrations.

Body temperature null distributions in reptiles with nonzero heat capacity: seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Elsey, Ruth M; Trosclair, Phillip L

2003-01-01

Regulation of body temperature may increase fitness of animals by ensuring that biochemical and physiological processes proceed at an optimal rate. The validity of current methods of testing whether or not thermoregulation in reptiles occurs is often limited to very small species that have near zero heat capacity. The aim of this study was to develop a method that allows estimation of body temperature null distributions of large reptiles and to investigate seasonal thermoregulation in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis). Continuous body temperature records of wild alligators were obtained from implanted dataloggers in winter (n=7, mass range: 1.6-53.6 kg) and summer (n=7, mass range: 1.9-54.5 kg). Body temperature null distributions were calculated by randomising behavioural postures, thereby randomly altering relative animal surface areas exposed to different avenues of heat transfer. Core body temperatures were predicted by calculations of transient heat transfer by conduction and blood flow. Alligator body temperatures follow regular oscillations during the day. Occasionally, body temperature steadied during the day to fall within a relatively narrow range. Rather than indicating shuttling thermoregulation, however, this pattern could be predicted from random movements. Average daily body temperature increases with body mass in winter but not in summer. Daily amplitudes of body temperature decrease with increasing body mass in summer but not in winter. These patterns result from differential exposure to heat transfer mechanisms at different seasons. In summer, alligators are significantly cooler than predictions for a randomly moving animal, and the reverse is the case in winter. Theoretical predictions show, however, that alligators can be warmer in winter if they maximised their sun exposure. We concluded that alligators may not rely exclusively on regulation of body temperature but that they may also acclimatise biochemically to seasonally

The Evolution of Tropospheric Temperature Field and its Relationship With The Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, H.; Sui, C-H.; Jian, M.; Wen, Z.

2000-01-01

The mean state and year-to-year variations of the tropospheric temperature fields and their relationship with the establishment of the summertime East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the Indian monsoon (INM) are studied using the NCEP reanalysis data of 15 years (1982-1996). The results show that the seasonal shift of the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and the establishment of the EAM and the INM are closely related to the seasonal warming which causes a reversal of the meridional gradient of upper tropospheric mean temperature over the monsoon regions. On the average of 15 years, the reversal time of the temperature gradient in the EAM region (INM region) is concurrent with (one pentad earlier than) the onset time of the summer monsoon. In most years of the 15-year period, the reversal of temperature gradient coincides or precedes the onset time of the summer monsoon in both the EAM region and the INM region. The results suggest an important role of thermal processes on the establishment of the Asian monsoon. The contributors to the upper tropospheric warming over the EAM region are the strong horizontal warm advection and the diabetic heating against the adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. In the INM region, strong adiabatic heating by subsidence and the diabetic heating are major warming processes against the strong horizontal cold advection related to the persistent northwestlies to the southwestern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau. It appears that the early or late establishment of the Asian summer monsoon is not directly related to the differential warming near the surface.

Decadal Variation of the Relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High and Summer Heatwaves in East China Modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Fu, C.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and summer heatwaves over Eastern China in interannual scale during the period of 1959-2016. Based on surface daily maximum temperature of 654 monitoring stations over China and meteorological variables in reanalysis data, we calculate the number of heatwave days (NHD) (one heatwave day was defined as one day with its daily maximum temperature greater than 35 degrees centigrade) as well as WPSH index and then examine their interannual relationship. Although the high-NHD-related 850hPa horizontal wind structure was shared by that of high WPSH and decaying El Niño summer, a decadal oscillation emerges for the correlation between interannual WPSH and NHD after removing their interdecadal variability by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method. The correlation coefficient can reach up to as high as 0.69 and as low as 0.17 and assembles the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) pretty well. Compositing analysis demonstrates that unstable WPSH-NHD relationship is mainly attributed to the spatial structure distinction of WPSH and surface warming in the El Niño decaying summer of different PDO phases. In the El Niño decaying summer of positive PDO phases, remarkable enhanced warming over majority of Southeastern China matches well with the noticeable westward extension of WPSH, which seems to be forced by the cyclonic circulation anomaly over Japan. The warmer Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool intensifies the Matsuno-Gill pattern over Maritime Continent, stimulating this cyclonic circulation anomaly via the northward propagation of Rossby wave. In the El Niño decaying summer of negative PDO phases, the cooler East China Sea enhances WPSH in North China and South China Sea, and thereby leads to a local cyclonic circulation anomaly over Eastern China, which would cause a large scope of cooling and out-of-phase WPSH-NHD relationship.

Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301

Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

Variation of Surface Air Temperature in Relation to El Nino and Cataclysmic Volcanic Eruptions, 1796-1882

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

1999-01-01

During the contemporaneous interval of 1796-1882 a number of significant decreases in temperature are found in the records of Central England and Northern Ireland. These decreases appear to be related to the occurrences of El Nino and/or cataclysmic volcanic eruptions. For example, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the yearly onsets of 20 El Nino of moderate to stronger strength, shows that, on average, the change in temperature varied by about +/- 0.3 C from normal being warmer during the boreal fall-winter leading up to the El Nino year and cooler during the spring-summer of the El Nino year. Also, the influence of El Nino on Central England temperatures appears to last about 1-2 years. Similarly, a composite of residual temperatures of the Central England dataset, centering temperatures on the month of eruption for 26 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions, shows that, on average, the change in temperature decreased by about 0.1 - 0.2 C, typically, 1-2 years after the eruption, although for specific events, like Tambora, the decrease was considerably greater. Additionally, tropical eruptions appear to produce greater changes in temperature than extratropical eruptions, and eruptions occurring in boreal spring-summer appear to produce greater changes in temperature than those occurring in fall-winter.

Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.

2017-05-31

Green Peter and Foster Dams on the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon, have altered the annual downstream water temperature profile (cycle). Operation of the dams has resulted in cooler summer releases and warmer autumn releases relative to pre-dam conditions, and that alteration can hinder recovery of various life stages of threatened spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhyncus tshawytscha) and winter steelhead (O. mykiss). Lake level management and the use of multiple outlets from varying depths at the dams can enable the maintenance of a temperature regime more closely resembling that in which the fish evolved by releasing warm surface water during summer and cooler, deeper water in the autumn. At Green Peter and Foster Dams, the outlet configuration is such that temperature control is often limited by hydropower production at the dams. Previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 water temperature models of Green Peter and Foster Lakes were used to simulate the downstream thermal effects from hypothetical structures and modified operations at the dams. Scenarios with no minimum power production requirements allowed some releases through shallower and deeper outlets (summer and autumn) to achieve better temperature control throughout the year and less year-to-year variability in autumn release temperatures. Scenarios including a hypothetical outlet floating 1 meter below the lake surface resulted in greater ability to release warm water during summer compared to existing structures. Later in Autumn (October 15–December 31), a limited amount of temperature control was realized downstream from Foster Dam by scenarios limited to operational changes with existing structures, resulting in 15-day averages within 1.0 degree Celsius of current operations.

Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosking, J. Scott; MacLeod, D.; Phillips, T.; Holmes, C. R.; Watson, P.; Shuckburgh, E. F.; Mitchell, D.

2018-05-01

Global climate model simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project were used to assess how wind power generation over Europe would change in a future world where global temperatures reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Comparing recent historical (2006–2015) and future 1.5 °C forcing experiments highlights that the climate models demonstrate a northward shift in the Atlantic jet, leading to a significant (p < 0.01) increase in surface winds over the UK and Northern Europe and a significant (p < 0.05) reduction over Southern Europe. We use a wind turbine power model to transform daily near-surface (10 m) wind speeds into daily wind power output, accounting for sub-daily variability, the height of the turbine, and power losses due to transmission and distribution of electricity. To reduce regional model biases we use bias-corrected 10 m wind speeds. We see an increase in power generation potential over much of Europe, with the greatest increase in load factor over the UK of around four percentage points. Increases in variability are seen over much of central and northern Europe with the largest seasonal change in summer. Focusing on the UK, we find that wind energy production during spring and autumn under 1.5 °C forcing would become as productive as it is currently during the peak winter season. Similarly, summer winds would increase driving up wind generation to resemble levels currently seen in spring and autumn. We conclude that the potential for wind energy in Northern Europe may be greater than has been previously assumed, with likely increases even in a 1.5 °C warmer world. While there is the potential for Southern Europe to see a reduction in their wind resource, these decreases are likely to be negligible.

Stream shading, summer streamflow and maximum water temperature following intense wildfire in headwater streams

Treesearch

Michael Amaranthus; Howard Jubas; David Arthur

1989-01-01

Adjacent headwater streams were monitored for postfire shade, summer streamflow and maximum water temperature following the 40,000 ha Silver Complex fire in southern Oregon. Average postfire shade (30 percent) for the three streams was considerably less than prefire shade (est.>90 percent). Dramatic increases in direct solar radiation resulted in large but variable...

Recent Very Hot Summers in Northern Hemispheric Land Areas Measured by Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Will Be the Norm Within 20 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chao; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis; Fang, Yuanyuan; Michalak, Anna M.

2017-12-01

Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.

Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chunho

2012-01-01

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also

Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the Twenty-First Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mei, Rui; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

We analyze a suite of Global Climate Models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives to understand the mechanisms behind a net increase in the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to enhanced radiative forcing during the 21st century despite a robust weakening of dynamics governing the monsoon circulation. Combining the future changes in the contributions from various sources, which contribute to the moisture supply over South Asia, with those in monsoon dynamics and atmospheric moisture content, we establish a pathway of understanding that partly explains these counteracting responses to increase in radiative forcing. Ourmore » analysis suggests that both regional (local recycling, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal) and remote (mainly Indian Ocean) sources contribute to the moisture supply for precipitation over South Asia during the summer season that is facilitated by the monsoon dynamics. Increase in radiative forcing fuels an increase in the atmospheric moisture content through warmer temperatures. For regional moisture sources, the effect of excessive atmospheric moisture is offset by weaker monsoon circulation and uncertainty in the response of the evapotranspiration over land, so anomalies in their contribution to the total moisture supply are either mixed or muted. In contrast, weakening of the monsoon dynamics has less influence on the moisture supply from remote sources that not only is a dominant moisture contributor in the historical period, but is also the net driver of the positive summer monsoon precipitation response in the 21st century. Our results also indicate that historic measures of the monsoon dynamics may not be well suited to predict the non-stationary moisture driven South Asian summer monsoon precipitation response in the 21st century.« less

Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonelli, Giovanni; Coppola, Anna; Salvatore, Maria Cristina; Baroni, Carlo; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco; Borghetti, Marco; Conte, Emanuele; Tognetti, Roberto; Marchetti, Marco; Lombardi, Fabio; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Pelfini, Manuela; Cherubini, Paolo; Provenzale, Antonello; Maggi, Valter

2017-11-01

A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD) and broadleaves (only RW). Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts) against each species-specific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC) chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series). We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September) temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months). The MXD sensitivity to August-September (AS) temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates < 1 °C from the instrumental record. This

BLACK SPOT INFESTATION IN JUVENILE COHO SALMON AND THE INFLUENCE OF OREGON COASTAL STREAM SUMMER TEMPERATURES

EPA Science Inventory

Freshwater survival and growth of juvenile salmon are affected by many factors, including high summer temperatures and other stressors such as parasitism. Delayed or suppressed growth related to stress can influence subsequent survival of juvenile salmonids in freshwater and mar...

Summer stream water temperature models for Great Lakes streams: New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Marilyn K.; McKenna, James E.; Butryn, Ryan S.; McDonald, Richard P.

2010-01-01

Temperature is one of the most important environmental influences on aquatic organisms. It is a primary driver of physiological rates and many abiotic processes. However, despite extensive research and measurements, synoptic estimates of water temperature are not available for most regions, limiting our ability to make systemwide and large-scale assessments of aquatic resources or estimates of aquatic species abundance and biodiversity. We used subwatershed averaging of point temperature measurements and associated multiscale landscape habitat conditions from over 3,300 lotic sites throughout New York State to develop and train artificial neural network models. Separate models predicting water temperature (in cold, cool, and warm temperature classes) within small catchment–stream order groups were developed for four modeling units, which together encompassed the entire state. Water temperature predictions were then made for each stream segment in the state. All models explained more than 90% of data variation. Elevation, riparian forest cover, landscape slope, and growing degree-days were among the most important model predictors of water temperature classes. Geological influences varied among regions. Predicted temperature distributions within stream networks displayed patterns of generally increasing temperature downstream but were patchy due to the averaging of water temperatures within stream size-classes of small drainages. Models predicted coldwater streams to be most numerous and warmwater streams to be generally associated with the largest rivers and relatively flat agricultural areas and urban areas. Model predictions provide a complete, georeferenced map of summer daytime mean stream temperature potential throughout New York State that can be used for planning and assessment at spatial scales from the stream segment class to the entire state.

Summer temperature metrics for predicting brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrish, Donna; Butryn, Ryan S.; Rizzo, Donna M.

2012-01-01

We developed a methodology to predict brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution using summer temperature metrics as predictor variables. Our analysis used long-term fish and hourly water temperature data from the Dog River, Vermont (USA). Commonly used metrics (e.g., mean, maximum, maximum 7-day maximum) tend to smooth the data so information on temperature variation is lost. Therefore, we developed a new set of metrics (called event metrics) to capture temperature variation by describing the frequency, area, duration, and magnitude of events that exceeded a user-defined temperature threshold. We used 16, 18, 20, and 22°C. We built linear discriminant models and tested and compared the event metrics against the commonly used metrics. Correct classification of the observations was 66% with event metrics and 87% with commonly used metrics. However, combined event and commonly used metrics correctly classified 92%. Of the four individual temperature thresholds, it was difficult to assess which threshold had the “best” accuracy. The 16°C threshold had slightly fewer misclassifications; however, the 20°C threshold had the fewest extreme misclassifications. Our method leveraged the volumes of existing long-term data and provided a simple, systematic, and adaptable framework for monitoring changes in fish distribution, specifically in the case of irregular, extreme temperature events.

Competing roles of air temperature and summer precipitation events on proglacial stream discharges in Chhota Shigri Glacier catchment, Indian Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL, R.

2016-12-01

It has been widely recognized that western Himalayan region depends heavily on glacier and snow melt for its water needs. This is true especially for the Chenab sub-basin and more generally for other sub-catchments of the mighty Indus catering to the water demands of millions of stake holders who depend on this water resource. However, there are very few studies available to understand high altitude glaciated catchments, the climatic controls over their flow regimes, and their dependency on glacier mass balances, mainly because of poor access. Hence, the proglacial stream discharges from Chhota Shigri Glacier, a representative glacier of western Himalayan region has been analyzed for understanding the impact of rising air temperatures and highly variable summer precipitation events on discharges that are sourced majorly from snow melt and glacier wastage. This study, for the first time attempts to understand the factors influencing the interannual, subseasonal, and the diurnal variability observed in this representative catchment over four ablation seasons (2010-2013), by monitoring solar radiation, air temperature, summer precipitation, albedo and transient snow cover. The proglacial discharge is governed by air temperatures and albedo-enhancing summer precipitation events, which also enhances transient snow cover. While, the positive mass balance years gave rise to lesser proglacial discharges in comparison to negative mass balance years, lesser winter accumulation was compensated by the lower ablation resulting summer snowfall events in some years. While rising summer air temperatures give rise to glacier wastage, the role of melting transient snow cover on stream discharge is highly significant, especially for positive mass balance years. The pronounced interannual variations and the decreased proglacial discharge in comparison to 1980s suggest that Chhota Shigri Glacier is possibly wasting its way to reach equilibrium to the changed climatic conditions of the

Factors influencing atmospheric composition over subarctic North America during summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wofsy, Steven C.; Fan, S. -M.; Blake, D. R.; Bradshaw, J. D.; Sandholm, S. T.; Singh, H. B.; Sachse, G. W.; Harriss, R. C.

1994-01-01

Elevated concentrations of hydrocarbons, CO, and nitrogen oxides were observed in extensive haze layers over northeastern Canada in the summer of 1990, during ABLE 3B. Halocarbon concentrations remained near background in most layers, indicating a source from biomass wildfires. Elevated concentrations of C2Cl4 provided a sensitive indicator for pollution from urban/industrial sources. Detailed analysis of regional budgets for CO and hydrocarbons indicates that biomass fires accounted for approximately equal to 70% of the input to the subarctic for most hydrocarbons and for acetone and more than 50% for CO. Regional sources for many species (including CO) exceeded chemical sinks during summer, and the boreal region provided a net source to midlatitudes. Interannual variations and long-term trends in atmospheric composition are sensitive to climatic change; a shift to warmer, drier conditions could increase the areas burned and thus the sources of many trace gases.

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

2017-04-01

In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

Breeding decisions and output are correlated with both temperature and rainfall in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver

PubMed Central

Paquet, Matthieu; Spottiswoode, Claire N.; Covas, Rita

2017-01-01

Animal reproductive cycles are commonly triggered by environmental cues of favourable breeding conditions. In arid environments, rainfall may be the most conspicuous cue, but the effects on reproduction of the high inter- and intra-annual variation in temperature remain poorly understood, despite being relevant to the current context of global warming. Here, we conducted a multiyear examination of the relationships between a suite of measures of temperature and rainfall, and the onset and length of the breeding season, the probability of breeding and reproductive output in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius). As expected, reproductive output increased with rainfall, yet specific relationships were conditional on the timing of rainfall: clutch production was correlated with rainfall throughout the season, whereas fledgling production was correlated with early summer rainfall. Moreover, we reveal novel correlations between aspects of breeding and temperature, indicative of earlier laying dates after warmer springs, and longer breeding seasons during cooler summers. These results have implications for understanding population trends under current climate change scenarios and call for more studies on the role of temperature in reproduction beyond those conducted on temperate-region species. PMID:28989782

Modeling the Effect of Summertime Heating on Urban Runoff Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, A. M.; Gemechu, A. L.; Norman, J. M.; Roa-Espinosa, A.

2007-12-01

Urban impervious surfaces absorb and store thermal energy, particularly during warm summer months. During a rainfall/runoff event, thermal energy is transferred from the impervious surface to the runoff, causing it to become warmer. As this higher temperature runoff enters receiving waters, it can be harmful to coldwater habitat. A simple model has been developed for the net energy flux at the impervious surfaces of urban areas to account for the heat transferred to runoff. Runoff temperature is determined as a function of the physical characteristics of the impervious areas, the weather, and the heat transfer between the moving film of runoff and the heated impervious surfaces that commonly exist in urban areas. Runoff from pervious surfaces was predicted using the Green- Ampt Mein-Larson infiltration excess method. Theoretical results were compared to experimental results obtained from a plot-scale field study conducted at the University of Wisconsin's West Madison Agricultural Research Station. Surface temperatures and runoff temperatures from asphalt and sod plots were measured throughout 15 rainfall simulations under various climatic conditions during the summers of 2004 and 2005. Average asphalt runoff temperatures ranged from 23.2°C to 37.1°C. Predicted asphalt runoff temperatures were in close agreement with measured values for most of the simulations (average RMSE = 4.0°C). Average pervious runoff temperatures ranged from 19.7° to 29.9°C and were closely approximated by the rainfall temperature (RMSE = 2.8°C). Predicted combined asphalt and sod runoff temperatures using a flow-weighted average were in close agreement with observed values (average RMSE = 3.5°C).

Cladonia lichens on extensive green roofs: evapotranspiration, substrate temperature, and albedo.

PubMed

Heim, Amy; Lundholm, Jeremy

2013-01-01

Green roofs are constructed ecosystems that provide ecosystem services in urban environments. Shallow substrate green roofs subject the vegetation layer to desiccation and other environmental extremes, so researchers have evaluated a variety of stress-tolerant vegetation types for green roof applications. Lichens can be found in most terrestrial habitats.  They are able to survive extremely harsh conditions, including frequent cycles of desiccation and rehydration, nutrient-poor soil, fluctuating temperatures, and high UV intensities. Extensive green roofs (substrate depth <20cm) exhibit these harsh conditions, making lichens possible candidates for incorporation into the vegetation layer on extensive green roofs.  In a modular green roof system, we tested the effect of Cladonia lichens on substrate temperature, water loss, and albedo compared to a substrate-only control. Overall, the Cladonia modules had significantly cooler substrate temperatures during the summer and significantly warmer temperatures during the fall.  Additionally, the Cladonia modules lost significantly less water than the substrate-only control. This implies that they may be able to benefit neighboring vascular plant species by reducing water loss and maintaining favorable substrate temperatures.

Northern Russian chironomid-based modern summer temperature data set and inference models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarova, Larisa; Self, Angela E.; Brooks, Stephen J.; van Hardenbroek, Maarten; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Diekmann, Bernhard

2015-11-01

West and East Siberian data sets and 55 new sites were merged based on the high taxonomic similarity, and the strong relationship between mean July air temperature and the distribution of chironomid taxa in both data sets compared with other environmental parameters. Multivariate statistical analysis of chironomid and environmental data from the combined data set consisting of 268 lakes, located in northern Russia, suggests that mean July air temperature explains the greatest amount of variance in chironomid distribution compared with other measured variables (latitude, longitude, altitude, water depth, lake surface area, pH, conductivity, mean January air temperature, mean July air temperature, and continentality). We established two robust inference models to reconstruct mean summer air temperatures from subfossil chironomids based on ecological and geographical approaches. The North Russian 2-component WA-PLS model (RMSEPJack = 1.35 °C, rJack2 = 0.87) can be recommended for application in palaeoclimatic studies in northern Russia. Based on distinctive chironomid fauna and climatic regimes of Kamchatka the Far East 2-component WAPLS model (RMSEPJack = 1.3 °C, rJack2 = 0.81) has potentially better applicability in Kamchatka.

European Temperature Variability and Climate Forcing Over The Last 500 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luterbacher, J.; Wanner, H.; Dietrich, D.; Friedli, T. K.

We present seasonal temperature reconstructions back to 1500 for the European land areas (30W-40E; 35N-70N) on a dense 0.5x0.5 latitude by longitude grid. The reconstructions were developed using PC regression analysis based on the combina- tion of early instrumental station series of temperature and pressure and proxy data from Eurasian sites. The statistical relationships were derived over the 1901-1995 in- strumental period (New et al. 2000) and applied to the pre-1900 data. The reliability of the reconstruction and the time-dependent uncertainty ranges about the estimates are discussed. We derived a high precision winter (DJF), summer (JJA) and annual (J-D) mean Eu- ropean temperature time series from 1500-1998 through averaging of all the 5100 land gridpoints. We found several cold relapses and warm intervals on the decadal timescale, on which shorter-period quasi-oscillatory behaviour was superimposed. Warmer European winters were experienced in the first third of the 16th century, at the beginning of the 17th century and generally in the 20th century. The warmest decade was 1989-1998. Cooler winter conditions were found in the second part of the 16th century, during the Maunder Minimum and in most parts of the 19th century. The coldest decades in winter temperatures were 1586-1595 and the 1690s with 1.5C lower values compared to the 1961-1990 mean. Warm summers were observed from around 1530 to 1570, from the 1750s to the early 19th century, around 1950 and at the end of the 20th century. 1789-1798 and the 1990s were the warmest decades in summer temperatures. Cooler summer periods were prevalent from the 1570s to the beginning of the 17th century, in the middle of the 18th century and at the turn of the 20th century. The summers from 1902-1916 were among the coldest over the last 500 years. The low pass filtered timeseries of the annually averaged temperatures from 1500- 1950 were mainly below the 1961-1990 average. The yearly mean European tempera- ture

Summer temperatures inferred from varved lacustrine sediment at Iceberg Lake in southcentral Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diedrich, K.; Loso, M. G.

2010-12-01

Iceberg Lake, a glacier-dammed lake in southcentral Alaska, has been previously shown to record over 1,500 years of continuous laminated lacustrine sediment deposition. Because previous work was based on examination of subaerial outcrops exposed by stream incision in the bed of the jökulhlaup-drained lake, the length of the record was limited by the extent of the outcrops. In August of 2010, we returned to core the remote lake; our goal was recovery of the complete sedimentary record in the lake, extending perhaps back to the onset of late Holocene glaciation—around 3-5 ka in this region. We used a Vibarcorer system to recover sediment cores from two locations, one near the site of previous work and another at the distal end of the lake. The longest cores recovered were 5.2 meters and 6.2 meters at the proximal and distal sites, respectively. Based on the average lamination thickness established previously at the proximal site (4.7 mm), these cores should each represent over 1000 years of sediment accumulation, and likely much longer at the distal site, where laminations are expected to be thinner. Having established previously that the lake’s laminations are annual varves and that they are positively correlated with summer (melt-season) temperatures, our analysis is focused on documenting a long time-series of annual sediment accumulation and summer-layer particle size. Both measurements will be used to interpret the history of summer temperatures. The cores may also provide sedimentary evidence of the timing of advances/retreats of nearby glaciers, including the Tana Glacier and Bagley Icefield, helping to clarify the poorly-constrained timing of neoglaciation in Southern Alaska. The paleoclimate record produced at Iceberg Lake will be included in the Arctic System Science 8ka project

Few apparent short-term effects of elevated soil temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation on the abundance and taxonomic diversity of desert soil micro- and meso-fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darby, B.J.; Neher, D.A.; Housman, D.C.; Belnap, J.

2011-01-01

Frequent hydration and drying of soils in arid systems can accelerate desert carbon and nitrogen mobilization due to respiration, microbial death, and release of intracellular solutes. Because desert microinvertebrates can mediate nutrient cycling, and the autotrophic components of crusts are known to be sensitive to rapid desiccation due to elevated temperatures after wetting events, we studied whether altered soil temperature and frequency of summer precipitation can also affect the composition of food web consumer functional groups. We conducted a two-year field study with experimentally-elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation in the Colorado Plateau desert, measuring the change in abundance of nematodes, protozoans, and microarthropods. We hypothesized that microfauna would be more adversely affected by the combination of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than either effect alone, as found previously for phototrophic crust biota. Microfauna experienced normal seasonal fluctuations in abundance, but the effect of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation was statistically non-significant for most microfaunal groups, except amoebae. The seasonal increase in abundance of amoebae was reduced with combined elevated temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation compared to either treatment alone, but comparable with control (untreated) plots. Based on our findings, we suggest that desert soil microfauna are relatively more tolerant to increases in ambient temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than the autotrophic components of biological soil crust at the surface.

Temperature Data Shows Warming in 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

TThe figure above depicts how much air temperatures near the Earth's surface changed relative to the global mean temperature from 1951 to 1980. NASA researchers used maps of urban areas derived from city lights data to account for the 'heat island' effect of cities. The red and orange colors show that temperatures are warmer in most regions of the world when compared to the 1951 to 1980 'normal' temperatures. Warming around the world has been widespread, but it is not present everywhere. The largest warming is in Northern Canada, Alaska and Siberia, as indicated by the deeper red colors. The lower 48 United States have become warmer recently, but only enough to make the temperatures comparable to what they were in the 1930s. The scale on the bottom of these temperature anomaly images represent degrees in Celsius. The negative numbers represent cooling and the positive numbers depict warming. Overall, the air temperature near the Earth's surface has warmed by 1oF (0.6oC) globally, on average, over the last century. For more information and additional images, read Satellites Shed Light on a Warmer World. Image courtesy Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

Holocene temperature history at the west Greenland Ice Sheet margin reconstructed from lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Losee, S.; Briner, J. P.; Francis, D.; Langdon, P. G.; Walker, I.

2011-12-01

Paleoclimate proxy data can help reduce uncertainties regarding how the Greenland Ice Sheet, and thus global sea level, will respond to future climate change. Studies of terrestrial deposits along Greenland's margins offer opportunities to reconstruct both past temperature changes and the associated changes in Greenland Ice Sheet extent, thus empirically characterizing the ice sheet's response to temperature change. Here we present Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions developed from sediment records of five lakes along the western ice sheet margin, near Jakobshavn Isbræ and Disko Bugt. Insect (Chironomidae, or non-biting midge) remains from North Lake provide quantitative estimates of summer temperatures over the past ca. 7500 years at multi-centennial resolution, and changes in sediment composition at all five lakes offer evidence for glacier fluctuations, changes in lake productivity, and other environmental changes throughout the Holocene. Aims of this study include quantification of warmth in the early to mid Holocene, when summer solar insolation forcing exceeded present-day values at northern latitudes and the local Greenland Ice Sheet margin receded inboard of its present position, and the magnitude of subsequent Neoglacial and Little Ice Age cooling that drove ice sheet expansion. We find that the Jakobshavn Isbrae region experienced the warmest temperatures of the Holocene (with summers 2 to 3.5 degrees C warmer than present) between ~6000 and 4000 years ago. Neoglacial cooling began rather abruptly ~4000 years ago and intensified 3000 years ago. Our proxy data suggest that the coldest summers of the Holocene occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Jakobshavn region. These results agree well with previous glacial geologic studies reconstructing local ice margin positions through the Holocene. Such reconstructions of paleoclimate and past ice sheet extent provide targets for testing and improving ice sheet models.

Physiological and biochemical response to high temperature stress in Okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L. Moench)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayamanesh, Shahnoosh; Keitel, Claudia; Ahmad, Nabil; Trethowan, Richard

2016-04-01

High temperature has been shown to lower the growth and yield of Okra, an important summer vegetable crop grown in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Australia. We aimed to characterise the physiological and biochemical response of Okra to heat stress. 150 genotypes from Pakistan and the AVRDC (The World Vegetable Centre) were screened for their physiological response (fluorescence, electrolyte leakage and yield) to heat in a greenhouse. Four genotypes (including heat tolerant and sensitive) were selected and subsequently grown in control and hot greenhouses. Daytime temperatures were on average 10°C warmer in the hot greenhouse, whereas nighttime temperatures were similar between the two temperature treatments. During a 12 week period, the physiological (assimilation rate, transpiration rate, stomatal conductance, fluorescence, electrolyte leakage, water potential) and biochemical (carbohydrates, sugar alcohols, C content) response of the four genotypes to heat stress was assessed. The effect of heat stress on the C allocation patterns and yield in Okra will be discussed.

A 650-year record of past summer temperatures from Pirin, Bulgaria tree-ring density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meko, M. D.; Trouet, V.; Panayotov, M.; Frank, D. C.

2017-12-01

New proxy records of past climate provide valuable data essential to enhance spatial and temporal coverage of the global paleoclimate record - the context against which ongoing climate change and climate-model forcing is examined and evaluated. We present a new 650-year record of past summer temperatures in southeastern (SE) Europe derived from tree-ring maximum-latewood-density (MXD) data measured from Bosnian pine (Pinus heldreichii) growing at high elevations in the Pirin Mountains, Bulgaria (PRN). The PRN collection is well-replicated, with 64 trees contributing MXD series ranging in length from 113 to 865 years (median series length = 480 years) spanning the years 1143-2009. The PRN chronology shows a significant (p < 0.05) relationship with summer (JAS) temperatures across a broad geographical area of SE Europe, including the entire Balkan peninsula, southern Italy, and southwestern Anatolia. Our temperature reconstruction, produced by multiple regression utilizing lagged predictors and calibrated against Sofia, Bulgaria meteorological observations, explains nearly 60% of target variance and reveals variability across decadal, centennial, and longer timescales over the 1350-2009 reconstruction interval. Relative to the instrumental 1900-1980 mean, our record shows multidecadal cool anomalies spanning the first half of the 19th century and the late 17th century, and warm periods spanning the 18th century, 16th and early-to-mid 17th centuries, and late 14th to early 15th century. A comparison of the PRN reconstruction with existing reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures reveal intervals of asynchrony between local and hemisphere-scale decadal temperature variability, with marked asynchrony in the late 16th-early 17th centuries, and unprecedented asynchrony in the late 20th-to early 21st century.

Increased air temperature during simulated autumn conditions does not increase photosynthetic carbon gain but affects the dissipation of excess energy in seedlings of the evergreen conifer Jack pine.

PubMed

Busch, Florian; Hüner, Norman P A; Ensminger, Ingo

2007-03-01

Temperature and daylength act as environmental signals that determine the length of the growing season in boreal evergreen conifers. Climate change might affect the seasonal development of these trees, as they will experience naturally decreasing daylength during autumn, while at the same time warmer air temperature will maintain photosynthesis and respiration. We characterized the down-regulation of photosynthetic gas exchange and the mechanisms involved in the dissipation of energy in Jack pine (Pinus banksiana) in controlled environments during a simulated summer-autumn transition under natural conditions and conditions with altered air temperature and photoperiod. Using a factorial design, we dissected the effects of daylength and temperature. Control plants were grown at either warm summer conditions with 16-h photoperiod and 22 degrees C or conditions representing a cool autumn with 8 h/7 degrees C. To assess the impact of photoperiod and temperature on photosynthesis and energy dissipation, plants were also grown under either cold summer (16-h photoperiod/7 degrees C) or warm autumn conditions (8-h photoperiod/22 degrees C). Photosynthetic gas exchange was affected by both daylength and temperature. Assimilation and respiration rates under warm autumn conditions were only about one-half of the summer values but were similar to values obtained for cold summer and natural autumn treatments. In contrast, photosynthetic efficiency was largely determined by temperature but not by daylength. Plants of different treatments followed different strategies for dissipating excess energy. Whereas in the warm summer treatment safe dissipation of excess energy was facilitated via zeaxanthin, in all other treatments dissipation of excess energy was facilitated predominantly via increased aggregation of the light-harvesting complex of photosystem II. These differences were accompanied by a lower deepoxidation state and larger amounts of beta-carotene in the warm autumn

Will seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) quality change in a warmer ocean?

PubMed

Barbosa, Vera; Maulvault, Ana Luísa; Alves, Ricardo N; Anacleto, Patrícia; Pousão-Ferreira, Pedro; Carvalho, Maria Luísa; Nunes, Maria Leonor; Rosa, Rui; Marques, António

2017-07-01

The impacts of climate change on seafood quality, safety and human health are still unknown. The present study investigated the effect of warming on fatty acids and elements content in two tissues (muscle and liver) of the relevant commercial seabass species (Dicentrarchus labrax). After exposing fish to increased seawater temperature for a period of 60days, higher saturated fatty acid (SFA) levels were observed in fish muscle (2.16% increase); whereas lower SFA levels were observed in fish liver (5.42% decrease). On the other hand, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contents decreased in both muscle (1.77% and 0.39%, respectively) and liver (10.54% and 8.11%, respectively) of fish subjected to warmer conditions. Additionally, warming promoted changes in fish elemental profiles, leading to significantly higher levels of Cl in the muscle and lower levels of Rb in the liver. Overall, data showed that fatty acids and elemental contents were affected by temperature, though representing small implications to human health. Moreover, this preliminary study highlights the importance of conducting further seafood risk-benefit assessments under climate change contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Downscaling GISS ModelE Boreal Summer Climate over Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew

2015-01-01

The study examines the perceived added value of downscaling atmosphere-ocean global climate model simulations over Africa and adjacent oceans by a nested regional climate model. NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled ModelE simulations for June- September 1998-2002 are used to form lateral boundary conditions for synchronous simulations by the GISS RM3 regional climate model. The ModelE computational grid spacing is 2deg latitude by 2.5deg longitude and the RM3 grid spacing is 0.44deg. ModelE precipitation climatology for June-September 1998-2002 is shown to be a good proxy for 30-year means so results based on the 5-year sample are presumed to be generally representative. Comparison with observational evidence shows several discrepancies in ModelE configuration of the boreal summer inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). One glaring shortcoming is that ModelE simulations do not advance the West African rain band northward during the summer to represent monsoon precipitation onset over the Sahel. Results for 1998-2002 show that onset simulation is an important added value produced by downscaling with RM3. ModelE Eastern South Atlantic Ocean computed sea-surface temperatures (SST) are some 4 K warmer than reanalysis, contributing to large positive biases in overlying surface air temperatures (Tsfc). ModelE Tsfc are also too warm over most of Africa. RM3 downscaling somewhat mitigates the magnitude of Tsfc biases over the African continent, it eliminates the ModelE double ITCZ over the Atlantic and it produces more realistic orographic precipitation maxima. Parallel ModelE and RM3 simulations with observed SST forcing (in place of the predicted ocean) lower Tsfc errors but have mixed impacts on circulation and precipitation biases. Downscaling improvements of the meridional movement of the rain band over West Africa and the configuration of orographic precipitation maxima are realized irrespective of the SST biases.

Influences of summer water temperatures on the movement, distribution, and resources use of fluvial Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the South Fork Clearwater River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dobos, Marika E.; Corsi, Matthew P.; Schill, Daniel J.; DuPont, Joseph M.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Although many Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi populations in Idaho are robust and stable, population densities in some systems remain below management objectives. In many of those systems, such as in the South Fork Clearwater River (SFCR) system, environmental conditions (e.g., summer temperatures) are hypothesized to limit populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout. Radiotelemetry and snorkeling methods were used to describe seasonal movement patterns, distribution, and habitat use of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the SFCR during the summers of 2013 and 2014. Sixty-six radio transmitters were surgically implanted into Westslope Cutthroat Trout (170–405 mm TL) from May 30–June 25, 2013, and June 20–July 6, 2014. Sedentary and mobile summer movement patterns by Westslope Cutthroat Trout were observed in the SFCR. Westslope Cutthroat Trout were generally absent from the lower SFCR. In the upper region of the SFCR, fish generally moved from the main-stem SFCR into tributaries as water temperatures increased during the summer. Fish remained in the middle region of the SFCR where water temperatures were cooler than in the upper or lower regions of the SFCR. A spatially explicit water temperature model indicated that the upper and lower regions of the SFCR exceeded thermal tolerance levels of Westslope Cutthroat Trout throughout the summer. During snorkeling, 23 Westslope Cutthroat Trout were observed in 13 sites along the SFCR and at low density (mean ± SD, 0.0003 ± 0.0001 fish/m2). The distribution of fish observed during snorkeling was consistent with the distribution of radio-tagged fish in the SFCR during the summer. Anthropogenic activities (i.e., grazing, mining, road construction, and timber harvest) in the SFCR basin likely altered the natural flow dynamics and temperature regime and thereby limited stream habitat in the SFCR system for Westslope Cutthroat Trout.

Increased Air Temperature during Simulated Autumn Conditions Does Not Increase Photosynthetic Carbon Gain But Affects the Dissipation of Excess Energy in Seedlings of the Evergreen Conifer Jack Pine1[OA

PubMed Central

Busch, Florian; Hüner, Norman P.A.; Ensminger, Ingo

2007-01-01

Temperature and daylength act as environmental signals that determine the length of the growing season in boreal evergreen conifers. Climate change might affect the seasonal development of these trees, as they will experience naturally decreasing daylength during autumn, while at the same time warmer air temperature will maintain photosynthesis and respiration. We characterized the down-regulation of photosynthetic gas exchange and the mechanisms involved in the dissipation of energy in Jack pine (Pinus banksiana) in controlled environments during a simulated summer-autumn transition under natural conditions and conditions with altered air temperature and photoperiod. Using a factorial design, we dissected the effects of daylength and temperature. Control plants were grown at either warm summer conditions with 16-h photoperiod and 22°C or conditions representing a cool autumn with 8 h/7°C. To assess the impact of photoperiod and temperature on photosynthesis and energy dissipation, plants were also grown under either cold summer (16-h photoperiod/7°C) or warm autumn conditions (8-h photoperiod/22°C). Photosynthetic gas exchange was affected by both daylength and temperature. Assimilation and respiration rates under warm autumn conditions were only about one-half of the summer values but were similar to values obtained for cold summer and natural autumn treatments. In contrast, photosynthetic efficiency was largely determined by temperature but not by daylength. Plants of different treatments followed different strategies for dissipating excess energy. Whereas in the warm summer treatment safe dissipation of excess energy was facilitated via zeaxanthin, in all other treatments dissipation of excess energy was facilitated predominantly via increased aggregation of the light-harvesting complex of photosystem II. These differences were accompanied by a lower deepoxidation state and larger amounts of β-carotene in the warm autumn treatment as well as by changes in

Dynamic fracture development in response to extreme summer temperatures: 27/7/2014, Långören Island, Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leith, Kerry; Perras, Matthew; Siren, Topias; Rantanen, Tuomas; Heinonen, Suvi; Loew, Simon

2017-04-01

Long periods of exceptionally high temperatures in Finland and California during the summer of 2014 were associated with the formation of large 'exfoliation' or 'sheeting' fractures in bedrock surfaces. Videos taken at both locations show sharp fractures forming along the edge of thin (<1 m) bedrock sheets several meters across, before the rock surface appears to jump and buckle in the hot summer sun. Long striations visible on the surface of the rock at Långören Island are the result of boulders being dragged over the landscape during the last glacial period (>15,000 years ago), hinting at the rarity of the recent events on the otherwise undamaged surface. In order to uncover the mechanisms driving this remarkable event, we installed a unique low-cost monitoring system to track the behavior of the new Långören Island fracture through the summer of 2016. This included a local meteorological station, Arduino-based rock temperature profiles, acoustic emission measurements, and a 3G-enabled all-in-one PC for live data communication. Coupled with GPR data, field mapping, and a local DEM derived from a 'Go-Pro on a stick' structure from motion capture, we generate a unique insight into the conditions at the time of the 2014 event, and potential active micro-fracturing during a hot period in 2016. Our models suggest rock surface temperatures approached 40°C during 2014, almost ten degrees above the peak air temperature. The mid- to late-afternoon timing of fracturing was associated with peak thermal stress in the upper 1 m of bedrock, consistent with 2016 observations, where measured surface temperatures of around 35°C generate a thermal front that coincides with a series of acoustic emission events on a sensor installed in a borehole near the crest of the fracture.

Response of sunshine bass (Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis) to digestible protein/dietary lipid density and ration size at summer culture temperatures in the Southern United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature and ammonia levels often increase dramatically in ponds during summer production of sunshine bass and summer temperatures are projected to increase in the Southern US. Extended periods of high ammonia result in fish stress, disease, mortality and significant loss of feeding days as pro...

Warmer weather as a risk factor for hospitalisations due to urinary tract infections.

PubMed

Simmering, J E; Cavanaugh, J E; Polgreen, L A; Polgreen, P M

2018-02-01

The incidence of urinary tract infections (UTIs) is seasonal, and this seasonality may be explained by changes in weather, specifically, temperature. Using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified the geographic location for 581 813 hospital admissions with the primary diagnosis of a UTI and 56 630 773 non-UTI hospitalisations in the United States. Next, we used data from the National Climatic Data Center to estimate the monthly average temperature for each location. Using a case-control design, we modelled the odds of a hospital admission having a primary diagnosis of UTI as a function of demographics, payer, location, patient severity, admission month, year and the average temperature for the admission month. We found, after controlling for patient factors and month of admission, the odds of a UTI diagnosis increased with higher temperatures in a dose-dependent manner. For example, relative to months with average temperatures of 5-7.5 °C, an admission in a month with an average temperature of 27.5-30 °C has 20% higher odds of a primary diagnosis of UTI. However, in months with extremely high average temperatures (above 30 °C), the odds of a UTI admissions decrease, perhaps due to changes in behaviour. Thus, at a population level, UTI-related hospitalisations are associated with warmer weather.

Development and Validation of a Behavioural Index for Adaptation to High Summer Temperatures among Urban Dwellers

PubMed Central

Valois, Pierre; Caron, Maxime; Carrier, Marie-Pier; Morin, Alexandre J. S.; Renaud, Jean-Sébastien; Jacob, Johann; Gosselin, Pierre

2017-01-01

One of the consequences of climate change is the growing number of extreme weather events, including heat waves, which have substantial impacts on the health of populations. From a public health standpoint, it is vital to ensure that people can adapt to high heat, particularly in cities where heat islands abound. Identifying indicators to include in a parsimonious index would help better differentiate individuals who adapt well to heat from those who do not adapt as well. This study aimed at developing and validating a summer heat adaptation index for residents of the 10 largest cities in the province of Québec, Canada. A sample of 2000 adults in 2015 and 1030 adults in 2016 completed a telephone questionnaire addressing their adoption (or non-adoption) of behaviours recommended by public health agencies to protect themselves during periods of high temperature, and their perceptions of how high summer heat affects their mental and physical health. Item analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, multiple correspondence analysis, measurement invariance analyses and criterion-validity analyses were used to develop a 12-behaviour heat adaptation index for distinguishing between individuals who adapt well to high temperatures and those who do not adapt as well. The results indicated that the measurement and the factor structure of the index were invariant (equivalent) across the two independent samples of participants who completed the questionnaire at different times one year apart, an important prerequisite for unambiguous interpretation of index scores across groups and over time. The results also showed that individuals who perceived more adverse effects on their physical or mental health adopted more preventive behaviours during periods of high temperatures and humidity conditions compared to those who felt lesser or no effects. This study thus presents support for the validity of the index that could be used in future studies to monitor preventive behaviours

Forced-Air Warmers and Surgical Site Infections in Patients Undergoing Knee or Hip Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Austin, Paul N

2017-01-01

The majority of the evidence indicates preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia reduces the incidence of many perioperative complications. Among the results of inadvertent perioperative hypothermia are increased bleeding, myocardial events, impaired wound healing, and diminished renal function. Most researchers agree there is an increased incidence of surgical site infections in patients who experience inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Forced-air warming is effective in preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia. Paradoxically, forced-air warmers have been implicated in causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. The results of investigations suggest these devices harbor pathogens and cause unwanted airflow disturbances. However, no significant increases in bacterial counts were found when forced-air warmers were used according to the manufacturer's directions. The results of one study suggested the incidence of surgical site infections in patients undergoing total joint arthroplasty was increased when using a forced-air warmer. However these researchers did not control for other factors affecting the incidence of surgical site infections in these patients. Current evidence does not support forced-air warmers causing surgical site infections in patients undergoing total knee or hip arthroplasty. Clinicians must use and maintain these devices as per the manufacturer's directions. They may consider using alternative warming methods. Well-conducted studies are needed to help determine the role of forced-air warmers in causing infections in these patients.

Ocean heat budget analysis on sea surface temperature anomaly in western Indian Ocean during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathrio, Ibnu; Manda, Atsuyoshi; Iizuka, Satoshi; Kodama, Yasu-Masa; Ishida, Sachinobu

2018-05-01

This study presents ocean heat budget analysis on seas surface temperature (SST) anomalies during strong-weak Asian summer monsoon (southwest monsoon). As discussed by previous studies, there was close relationship between variations of Asian summer monsoon and SST anomaly in western Indian Ocean. In this study we utilized ocean heat budget analysis to elucidate the dominant mechanism that is responsible for generating SST anomaly during weak-strong boreal summer monsoon. Our results showed ocean advection plays more important role to initate SST anomaly than the atmospheric prcess (surface heat flux). Scatterplot analysis showed that vertical advection initiated SST anomaly in western Arabian Sea and southwestern Indian Ocean, while zonal advection initiated SST anomaly in western equatorial Indian Ocean.

Staying cool in a changing landscape: the influence of maximum daily ambient temperature on grizzly bear habitat selection.

PubMed

Pigeon, Karine E; Cardinal, Etienne; Stenhouse, Gordon B; Côté, Steeve D

2016-08-01

To fulfill their needs, animals are constantly making trade-offs among limiting factors. Although there is growing evidence about the impact of ambient temperature on habitat selection in mammals, the role of environmental conditions and thermoregulation on apex predators is poorly understood. Our objective was to investigate the influence of ambient temperature on habitat selection patterns of grizzly bears in the managed landscape of Alberta, Canada. Grizzly bear habitat selection followed a daily and seasonal pattern that was influenced by ambient temperature, with adult males showing stronger responses than females to warm temperatures. Cutblocks aged 0-20 years provided an abundance of forage but were on average 6 °C warmer than mature conifer stands and 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks. When ambient temperatures increased, the relative change (odds ratio) in the probability of selection for 0- to 20-year-old cutblocks decreased during the hottest part of the day and increased during cooler periods, especially for males. Concurrently, the probability of selection for 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks increased on warmer days. Following plant phenology, the odds of selecting 0- to 20-year-old cutblocks also increased from early to late summer while the odds of selecting 21- to 40-year-old cutblocks decreased. Our results demonstrate that ambient temperatures, and therefore thermal requirements, play a significant role in habitat selection patterns and behaviour of grizzly bears. In a changing climate, large mammals may increasingly need to adjust spatial and temporal selection patterns in response to thermal constraints.

Temperature in lowland Danish streams: contemporary patterns, empirical models and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagergaard Pedersen, Niels; Sand-Jensen, Kaj

2007-01-01

Continuous temperature measurements at 11 stream sites in small lowland streams of North Zealand, Denmark over a year showed much higher summer temperatures and lower winter temperatures along the course of the stream with artificial lakes than in the stream without lakes. The influence of lakes was even more prominent in the comparisons of colder lake inlets and warmer outlets and led to the decline of cold-water and oxygen-demanding brown trout. Seasonal and daily temperature variations were, as anticipated, dampened by forest cover, groundwater input, input from sewage plants and high downstream discharges. Seasonal variations in daily water temperature could be predicted with high accuracy at all sites by a linear air-water regression model (r2: 0.903-0.947). The predictions improved in all instances (r2: 0.927-0.964) by a non-linear logistic regression according to which water temperatures do not fall below freezing and they increase less steeply than air temperatures at high temperatures because of enhanced heat loss from the stream by evaporation and back radiation. The predictions improved slightly (r2: 0.933-0.969) by a multiple regression model which, in addition to air temperature as the main predictor, included solar radiation at un-shaded sites, relative humidity, precipitation and discharge. Application of the non-linear logistic model for a warming scenario of 4-5 °C higher air temperatures in Denmark in 2070-2100 yielded predictions of temperatures rising 1.6-3.0 °C during winter and summer and 4.4-6.0 °C during spring in un-shaded streams with low groundwater input. Groundwater-fed springs are expected to follow the increase of mean air temperatures for the region. Great caution should be exercised in these temperature projections because global and regional climate scenarios remain open to discussion. Copyright

Enhanced summer warming reduces fungal decomposer diversity and litter mass loss more strongly in dry than in wet tundra.

PubMed

Christiansen, Casper T; Haugwitz, Merian S; Priemé, Anders; Nielsen, Cecilie S; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders; Grogan, Paul; Blok, Daan

2017-01-01

the evaporative drying associated with warmer air temperatures. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Students' Perceived Heat-Health Symptoms Increased with Warmer Classroom Temperatures.

PubMed

Bidassey-Manilal, Shalin; Wright, Caradee Y; Engelbrecht, Jacobus C; Albers, Patricia N; Garland, Rebecca M; Matooane, Mamopeli

2016-06-07

Temperatures in Africa are expected to increase by the end of the century. Heat-related health impacts and perceived health symptoms are potentially a problem, especially in public schools with limited resources. Students (n = 252) aged ~14-18 years from eight high schools completed an hourly heat-health symptom log over 5 days. Data loggers measured indoor classroom temperatures. A high proportion of students felt tired (97.2%), had low concentration (96.8%) and felt sleepy (94.1%) during at least one hour on any day. There were statistically significant correlations, when controlling for school cluster effect and time of day, between indoor temperatures ≥32 °C and students who felt tired and found it hard to breathe. Consistently higher indoor classroom temperatures were observed in classrooms constructed of prefabricated asbestos sheeting with corrugated iron roof and converted shipping container compared to brick classrooms. Longitudinal studies in multiple seasons and different classroom building types are needed.

Students’ Perceived Heat-Health Symptoms Increased with Warmer Classroom Temperatures

PubMed Central

Bidassey-Manilal, Shalin; Wright, Caradee Y.; Engelbrecht, Jacobus C.; Albers, Patricia N.; Garland, Rebecca M.; Matooane, Mamopeli

2016-01-01

Temperatures in Africa are expected to increase by the end of the century. Heat-related health impacts and perceived health symptoms are potentially a problem, especially in public schools with limited resources. Students (n = 252) aged ~14–18 years from eight high schools completed an hourly heat-health symptom log over 5 days. Data loggers measured indoor classroom temperatures. A high proportion of students felt tired (97.2%), had low concentration (96.8%) and felt sleepy (94.1%) during at least one hour on any day. There were statistically significant correlations, when controlling for school cluster effect and time of day, between indoor temperatures ≥32 °C and students who felt tired and found it hard to breathe. Consistently higher indoor classroom temperatures were observed in classrooms constructed of prefabricated asbestos sheeting with corrugated iron roof and converted shipping container compared to brick classrooms. Longitudinal studies in multiple seasons and different classroom building types are needed. PMID:27338423

Occurrence of human respiratory syncytial virus in summer in Japan.

PubMed

Shobugawa, Y; Takeuchi, T; Hibino, A; Hassan, M R; Yagami, R; Kondo, H; Odagiri, T; Saito, R

2017-01-01

In temperate zones, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) outbreaks typically occur in cold weather, i.e. in late autumn and winter. However, recent outbreaks in Japan have tended to start during summer and autumn. This study examined associations of meteorological conditions with the numbers of HRSV cases reported in summer in Japan. Using data from the HRSV national surveillance system and national meteorological data for summer during the period 2007-2014, we utilized negative binomial logistic regression analysis to identify associations between meteorological conditions and reported cases of HRSV. HRSV cases increased when summer temperatures rose and when relative humidity increased. Consideration of the interaction term temperature × relative humidity enabled us to show synergistic effects of high temperature with HRSV occurrence. In particular, HRSV cases synergistically increased when relative humidity increased while the temperature was ⩾28·2 °C. Seasonal-trend decomposition analysis using the HRSV national surveillance data divided by 11 climate divisions showed that summer HRSV cases occurred in South Japan (Okinawa Island), Kyushu, and Nankai climate divisions, which are located in southwest Japan. Higher temperature and higher relative humidity were necessary conditions for HRSV occurrence in summer in Japan. Paediatricians in temperate zones should be mindful of possible HRSV cases in summer, when suitable conditions are present.

Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five-Layer Soil-Hydrology Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunzel, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Fröhlich, Kristina; Hagemann, Stefan; Pohlmann, Holger; Stacke, Tobias; Baehr, Johanna

2018-01-01

We evaluate the impact of a new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2 m temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the five-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe.

On the relationship between the early spring Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Chenxu; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Cheng, Qiuming; Li, Yu; Jiang, Tingchen; San Liang, X.

2018-05-01

In this study, we evaluated the effects of springtime Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) on the Tibetan Plateau's role as atmospheric heat source (AHS) in summer. The SST data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) and the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for 33 years (from 1979 to 2011) were used to analyze the relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the Tibetan Plateau's AHS in summer, using the approaches that include correlation analysis, and lead-lag analysis. Our results show that some certain strong oceanic SSTs affect the summer plateau heat, specially finding that the early spring SSTs of the Indian Ocean significantly affect the plateau's ability to serve as a heat source in summer. Moreover, the anomalous atmospheric circulation and transport of water vapor are related to the Plateau heat variation.

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps.

PubMed

Elkin, Ché; Gutiérrez, Alvaro G; Leuzinger, Sebastian; Manusch, Corina; Temperli, Christian; Rasche, Livia; Bugmann, Harald

2013-06-01

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm-dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought-related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool-wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally 'safe' boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Winter Insulation By Snow Accumulation in a Subarctic Treeline Ecosystem Increases Summer Carbon Cycling Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, T.; Subke, J. A.; Wookey, P. A.

2014-12-01

The effect of snow accumulation on soil carbon and nutrient cycling is attracting substantial attention from researchers. We know that deeper snow accumulation caused by high stature vegetation increases winter microbial activity and therefore carbon and nitrogen flux rates. However, until now the effect of snow accumulation, by buffering winter soil temperature, on subsequent summer soil processes, has scarcely been considered. We carried out an experiment at an alpine treeline in subarctic Sweden in which soil monoliths, contained within PVC collars, were transplanted between forest (deep winter snow) and tundra heath (shallow winter snow). We measured soil CO2efflux over two growing seasons and quantified soil microbial biomass after the second winter. We showed that respiration rates of transplanted forest soil were significantly reduced compared with control collars (remaining in the forest) as a consequence of colder, but more variable, winter temperatures. We hypothesised that microbial biomass would be reduced in transplanted forests soils but found there was no difference compared to control. We therefore further hypothesised that the similarly sized microbial pool in the control is assembled differently to the transplant. We believe that the warmer winters in forests foster more active consortia of decomposer microbes as a result of different abiotic selection pressures. Using an ecosystem scale experimental approach, we have identified a mechanism that influences summer carbon cycling rates based solely on the amount of snow that accumulates the previous winter. We conclude that modification of snow depth as a consequence of changes in vegetation structure is an important mechanism influencing soil C stocks in ecosystems where snow persists for a major fraction of the year.

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Lei; Shin, Sang-Ik; Liu, Zhengyu; Liu, Qinyu

2016-10-01

Sensitivity of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies was estimated from ensemble simulations of two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) with an array of idealized SST anomaly patch prescriptions. Consistent sensitivity patterns were obtained in both models. Sensitivity of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation to cooling in the East Pacific was much weaker than to that of the same magnitude in the local Indian-western Pacific, over which a meridional pattern of warm north and cold south was most instrumental in increasing ISM precipitation. This indicates that the strength of the ENSO-ISM relationship is due to the large-amplitude East Pacific SST anomaly rather than its sensitivity value. Sensitivity of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), represented by the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV, also known as the meiyu-baiu front) precipitation, is non-uniform across the Indian Ocean basin. YHRV precipitation was most sensitive to warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, whereas the southern Indian Ocean had the opposite effect. This implies that the strengthened EASM in the post-Niño year is attributable mainly to warming of the northern Indian Ocean. The corresponding physical links between these SST anomaly patterns and ASM precipitation were also discussed. The relevance of sensitivity maps was justified by the high correlation between sensitivity-map-based reconstructed time series using observed SST anomaly patterns and actual precipitation series derived from ensemble-mean atmospheric GCM runs with time-varying global SST prescriptions during the same period. The correlation results indicated that sensitivity maps derived from patch experiments were far superior to those based on regression methods.

Long-term changes in migration timing of Song Thrush Turdus philomelos at the southern Baltic coast in response to temperatures on route and at breeding grounds.

PubMed

Redlisiak, Michał; Remisiewicz, Magdalena; Nowakowski, Jarosław K

2018-05-26

Climate warming causes the advancement of spring arrival of many migrant birds breeding in Europe, but the effects on their autumn migration are less known. We aimed to determine any changes in the timing of Song Thrush captured during spring and autumn migrations at the Polish Baltic coast from 1975 to 2014, and if these were related to long-term changes of temperature at their breeding grounds and migration routes. The timing of spring migration at Hel ringing station in 1975-2014 did not show long-term advance, but they had responded to environmental conditions on the year-to-year basis. The warmer the temperatures were in April on their migration route, the earlier were the dates of the median and the end of spring migration at Hel. The beginning of autumn migration at the Mierzeja Wiślana ringing station advanced by 5 days between 1975 and 2014. The warmer the April on route, and the July at the Song Thrushes' breeding grounds, the earlier young birds began autumn migration across the Baltic coast. We suggest this was a combined effect of adults' migration and breeding early during warm springs and young birds getting ready faster for autumn migration during warm summers. The average time span of 90% of the autumn migration was extended by 5 days, probably because of early migration of young birds from first broods and late of those from second broods enabled by warm springs and summers. The response of Song Thrushes' migration timing to temperatures on route and at the breeding grounds indicated high plasticity in the species and suggested it might adapt well to climate changes.

A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H.

2015-12-01

High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback

Differences between near-surface equivalent temperature and temperature trends for the Eastern United States. Equivalent temperature as an alternative measure of heat content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davey, C.A.; Pielke, R.A.; Gallo, K.P.

2006-01-01

There is currently much attention being given to the observed increase in near-surface air temperatures during the last century. The proper investigation of heating trends, however, requires that we include surface heat content to monitor this aspect of the climate system. Changes in heat content of the Earth's climate are not fully described by temperature alone. Moist enthalpy or, alternatively, equivalent temperature, is more sensitive to surface vegetation properties than is air temperature and therefore more accurately depicts surface heating trends. The microclimates evident at many surface observation sites highlight the influence of land surface characteristics on local surface heating trends. Temperature and equivalent temperature trend differences from 1982-1997 are examined for surface sites in the Eastern U.S. Overall trend differences at the surface indicate equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in the Eastern U.S. Seasonally, equivalent temperature trends are relatively warmer than temperature trends in winter and are relatively cooler in the fall. These patterns, however, vary widely from site to site, so local microclimate is very important. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, James G.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Homeyer, Cameron R.; Smith, Jessica B.; Wilmouth, David M.; Sayres, David S.; Klobas, J. Eric; Dykema, John A.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2017-01-01

We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate−water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4. PMID:28584119

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis.

PubMed

Anderson, James G; Weisenstein, Debra K; Bowman, Kenneth P; Homeyer, Cameron R; Smith, Jessica B; Wilmouth, David M; Sayres, David S; Klobas, J Eric; Leroy, Stephen S; Dykema, John A; Wofsy, Steven C

2017-06-20

We present observations defining ( i ) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; ( ii ) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; ( iii ) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and ( iv ) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO 2 and CH 4 .

The warmer the weather, the more gram-negative bacteria - impact of temperature on clinical isolates in intensive care units.

PubMed

Schwab, Frank; Gastmeier, Petra; Meyer, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

We investigated the relationship between average monthly temperature and the most common clinical pathogens causing infections in intensive care patients. A prospective unit-based study in 73 German intensive care units located in 41 different hospitals and 31 different cities with total 188,949 pathogen isolates (102,377 Gram-positives and 86,572 Gram-negatives) from 2001 to 2012. We estimated the relationship between the number of clinical pathogens per month and the average temperature in the month of isolation and in the month prior to isolation while adjusting for confounders and long-term trends using time series analysis. Adjusted incidence rate ratios for temperature parameters were estimated based on generalized estimating equation models which account for clustering effects. The incidence density of Gram-negative pathogens was 15% (IRR 1.15, 95%CI 1.10-1.21) higher at temperatures ≥ 20°C than at temperatures below 5°C. E. cloacae occurred 43% (IRR=1.43; 95%CI 1.31-1.56) more frequently at high temperatures, A. baumannii 37% (IRR=1.37; 95%CI 1.11-1.69), S. maltophilia 32% (IRR=1.32; 95%CI 1.12-1.57), K. pneumoniae 26% (IRR=1.26; 95%CI 1.13-1.39), Citrobacter spp. 19% (IRR=1.19; 95%CI 0.99-1.44) and coagulase-negative staphylococci 13% (IRR=1.13; 95%CI 1.04-1.22). By contrast, S. pneumoniae 35% (IRR=0.65; 95%CI 0.50-0.84) less frequently isolated at high temperatures. For each 5°C increase, we observed a 3% (IRR=1.03; 95%CI 1.02-1.04) increase of Gram-negative pathogens. This increase was highest for A. baumannii with 8% (IRR=1.08; 95%CI 1.05-1.12) followed by K. pneumoniae, Citrobacter spp. and E. cloacae with 7%. Clinical pathogens vary by incidence density with temperature. Significant higher incidence densities of Gram-negative pathogens were observed during summer whereas S. pneumoniae peaked in winter. There is increasing evidence that different seasonality due to physiologic changes underlies host susceptibility to different bacterial pathogens

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

PubMed

Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their

Thermal Reaction Norms and the Scale of Temperature Variation: Latitudinal Vulnerability of Intertidal Nacellid Limpets to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Morley, Simon A.; Martin, Stephanie M.; Day, Robert W.; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A. S.; Peck, Lloyd S.

2012-01-01

The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of “duration tenacity”, which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (Topt) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CTmax and Topt over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley

The impact of summer rainfall on the temperature gradient along the United States-Mexico border

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balling, Robert C., Jr.

1989-01-01

The international border running through the Sonoran Desert in southern Arizona and northern Sonora is marked by a sharp discontinuity in albedo and grass cover. The observed differences in surface properties are a result of long-term, severe overgrazing of the Mexican lands. Recently, investigators have shown the Mexican side of the border to have higher surface and air temperatures when compared to adjacent areas in the United State. The differences in temperatures appear to be more associated with differential evapotranspiration rates than with albedo changes along the border. In this study, the impact of summer rainfall on the observed seasonal and daily gradient in maximum temperature is examined. On a seasonal time scale, the temperature gradient increases with higher moisture levels, probably due to a vegetative response on the United States' side of the border; at the daily level, the gradient in maximum temperature decreases after a rain event as evaporation rates equalize between the countries. The results suggest that temperature differences between vegetated and overgrazed landscapes in arid areas are highly dependent upon the amount of moisture available for evapotranspiration.

Recent changes (2004-2016) of temperature and salinity in the Mediterranean outflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naranjo, Cristina; García-Lafuente, Jesús; Sammartino, Simone; Sánchez-Garrido, José C.; Sánchez-Leal, Ricardo; Jesús Bellanco, M.

2017-06-01

Temperature and salinity series near the seafloor at Espartel Sill (Strait of Gibraltar) have been used to analyze the thermohaline variability of the Mediterranean outflow. The series shows temperature drops by the end of most winters/early springs, which are the remote response to Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation events in the Gulf of Lion that uplift old WMDW nearby the strait. This process distorts the seasonal cycle of colder/warmer water flowing out in summer/winter likely linked to the seasonality of the Western Alborán Gyre. The series shows positive trends in agreement with previous values, which are largely increased after 2013. It is tentatively interpreted as the Western Mediterranean Transition (WMT) signature that started with the very cold winters of 2005 and 2006. It was only after the large new WMDW production of 2012 and 2013 harsh winters that WMT waters were made available to flow out of the Mediterranean Sea.

Causes and Consequences of Past and Projected Scandinavian Summer Temperatures, 500–2100 AD

PubMed Central

Büntgen, Ulf; Raible, Christoph C.; Frank, David; Helama, Samuli; Cunningham, Laura; Hofer, Dominik; Nievergelt, Daniel; Verstege, Anne; Timonen, Mauri; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Esper, Jan

2011-01-01

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years. PMID:21966436

Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

2010-12-01

temperature differences which is the meridional temperature gradient that controls westerly flow over the extratopics; (2)There is a well documented global temperature rise which is directly related to the increase in frequency of large blocking waves over Europe (so-called Meridional and Eastern macro-circulation types according to the Wangengeim-Girs classification); (3)There is an earlier onset and a shorter period of snowmelt documented over East Europe for the past several decades; (4) There is a paleoclimatic evidence that summer conditions were drier than now during the warmer period of the past; and (5) During the past 130 years prior to 2010 there was a significant increase in the frequency of "hot nights" with Tmin ≥75°F (≥23.9°C) over ER. These "hot nights" are known to directly correlate with health problems (including premature death rates) in the mid-latitude countries (e.g., the U.S.). Of course, nobody could predict the size and timing for an extraordinary weather anomaly in summer 2010 using climate change considerations. But, the ongoing climatic changes staged the scene for it over ER and increased its probability.

Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

2017-12-01

One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

Seasonal photosynthetic responses of European oaks to drought and elevated daytime temperature.

PubMed

Arend, M; Brem, A; Kuster, T M; Günthardt-Goerg, M S

2013-01-01

Oaks are commonly considered as drought- and heat-tolerant trees that might benefit from a warmer and drier climate. Their tolerance to drought has been frequently studied in the past, whereas studies dealing with elevated temperature or its combination with drought are very limited in number. In this study we investigated seasonal photosynthetic patterns in three European oak species (Quercus robur, Q. petraea, Q. pubescens) exposed in lysimeter-based open-top chambers (OTC) to elevated daytime temperature, drought and their combination. Stomatal and non-stomatal traits of photosynthesis were followed over an entire growing season and related to changes in daytime temperature, soil moisture and pre-dawn leaf water potential (Ψ(PD) ). Elevated daytime temperature enhanced net photosynthesis (P(N) ) in a season-dependent manner, with higher mid-summer rates than in controls exposed to ambient temperature. Drought imposed in early and mid-summer reduced the soil moisture content and caused a gradual decline in Ψ(PD) , stomatal conductance (g(S) ) and P(N) . Drought effects on Ψ(PD) and P(N) were exacerbated when drought was combined with elevated daytime temperature. In general, P(N) tended to be more affected by low soil moisture content or low Ψ(PD) in Q. robur than in Q. petraea and Q. pubescens. Non-stomatal limitations may have contributed to the drought-induced decline of P(N) in Q. robur, as indicated by a down-regulation of PSII photochemistry (F(V) /F(M) ) and decreased chlorophyll content. Taken together, our findings show that European oaks may benefit from elevated temperature, but detrimental effects can be expected when elevated temperature occurs simultaneously with drought. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Faecal glucocorticoid metabolites and body temperature in Australian merino ewes (Ovis aries) during summer artificial insemination (AI) program.

PubMed

Narayan, Edward; Sawyer, Gregory; Parisella, Simone

2018-01-01

Reproductive wastage is a key issue for sheep producers, both regionally and globally. The reproductive output of farm animals can be influenced by physiological and environmental factors. Rapid and reliable quantification of physiological stress can provide a useful tool for designing and testing on-farm management interventions to improve farm animal welfare and productivity. In this study, we quantified physiological stress non-invasively using faecal glucocorticoid metabolites-FGMs analysis and body temperature measurements of 15 superovulated donor merino ewes (Ovis aries) during participation in artificial insemination (AI) program conducted during 2015/2016 Australian summer. We hypothesized that low percentage transferable embryos in donor merino ewes will be associated positively with higher body temperature and/or higher FGMs in these ewes. Temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated and found within high thermal stress range during the two AI trials. Overall, results showed none of the factors (ewe ID, AI trial no., THI or FGMs) were significant for reduced percentage transferrable embryos, except ewe body temperature was highly significant (p = 0.014). Within AI trial comparisons showed significant positive associations between higher FGMs and body temperature with reduced transferrable embryos. These results suggest that Australian merino ewes participating in summer AI trials can experience physiological stress. Prolonged activation of the stress endocrine response and high body temperature (e.g. ensued from heat stress) could impact on ewe reproductive output. Therefore, future research should apply minimally invasive physiological tools to gather baseline information on physiological stress in merino sheep to enable the development of new farm-friendly methods of managing stress.

Faecal glucocorticoid metabolites and body temperature in Australian merino ewes (Ovis aries) during summer artificial insemination (AI) program

PubMed Central

Sawyer, Gregory; Parisella, Simone

2018-01-01

Reproductive wastage is a key issue for sheep producers, both regionally and globally. The reproductive output of farm animals can be influenced by physiological and environmental factors. Rapid and reliable quantification of physiological stress can provide a useful tool for designing and testing on-farm management interventions to improve farm animal welfare and productivity. In this study, we quantified physiological stress non-invasively using faecal glucocorticoid metabolites-FGMs analysis and body temperature measurements of 15 superovulated donor merino ewes (Ovis aries) during participation in artificial insemination (AI) program conducted during 2015/2016 Australian summer. We hypothesized that low percentage transferable embryos in donor merino ewes will be associated positively with higher body temperature and/or higher FGMs in these ewes. Temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated and found within high thermal stress range during the two AI trials. Overall, results showed none of the factors (ewe ID, AI trial no., THI or FGMs) were significant for reduced percentage transferrable embryos, except ewe body temperature was highly significant (p = 0.014). Within AI trial comparisons showed significant positive associations between higher FGMs and body temperature with reduced transferrable embryos. These results suggest that Australian merino ewes participating in summer AI trials can experience physiological stress. Prolonged activation of the stress endocrine response and high body temperature (e.g. ensued from heat stress) could impact on ewe reproductive output. Therefore, future research should apply minimally invasive physiological tools to gather baseline information on physiological stress in merino sheep to enable the development of new farm-friendly methods of managing stress. PMID:29381759

Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data in the Baltic-Belarus area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veski, Siim; Seppä, Heikki; Stančikaitė, Migle; Zernitskaya, Valentina; Reitalu, Triin; Gryguc, Gražyna; Heinsalu, Atko; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Vassiljev, Jüri; Heiri, Oliver

2015-04-01

Quantitative reconstructions based on fossil pollen and chironomids are widely used and useful for long-term climate variability estimations. The Lateglacial and early Holocene period (15-8 ka BP) in the Baltic-Belarus (BB) area between 60°-51° N was characterized by sudden shifts in climate due to various climate forcings affecting the climate of the northern hemisphere and North Atlantic, including the proximity of receding ice sheets. Climate variations in BB during the LG were eminent as the southern part of the region was ice free during the Last Glacial Maximum over 19 ka BP, whereas northern Estonia became ice free no sooner than 13 ka BP. New pollen based reconstructions of summer (May-to-August) and winter (December-to-February) temperatures between 15-8 ka BP along a S-N transect in the BB area display trends in temporal and spatial changes in climate variability. These results are completed by two chironomid-based July mean temperature reconstructions (Heiri et al. 2014). The magnitude of change compared with modern temperatures was more prominent in the northern part of BB area than in the southern part. The 4 °C winter and 2 °C summer warming at the start of GI-1 was delayed in the BB area and Lateglacial maximum temperatures were reached at ca 13.6 ka BP, being 4 °C colder than the modern mean. The Younger Dryas cooling in the area was 5 °C colder than present as inferred by all proxies (Veski et al. in press). In addition, our analyses show an early Holocene divergence in winter temperature trends with modern values reaching 1 ka earlier (10 ka BP) in southern BB compared to the northern part of the region (9 ka BP). Heiri, O., Brooks, S.J., Renssen, H., Bedford, A., Hazekamp, M., Ilyashuk, B., Jeffers, E.S., Lang, B., Kirilova, E., Kuiper, S., Millet, L., Samartin, S., Toth, M., Verbruggen, F., Watson, J.E., van Asch, N., Lammertsma, E., Amon, L., Birks, H.H., Birks, J.B., Mortensen, M.F., Hoek, W.Z., Magyari, E., Muñoz Sobrino, C., Seppä, H

Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

2018-03-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

Influences of wildfire and channel reorganization on spatial and temporal variation in stream temperature and the distribution of fish and amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, J.B.; Rosenberger, A.E.; Luce, C.H.; Rieman, B.E.

2007-01-01

Wildfire can influence a variety of stream ecosystem properties. We studied stream temperatures in relation to wildfire in small streams in the Boise River Basin, located in central Idaho, USA. To examine the spatio-temporal aspects of temperature in relation to wildfire, we employed three approaches: a pre-post fire comparison of temperatures between two sites (one from a burned stream and one unburned) over 13 years, a short-term (3 year) pre-post fire comparison of a burned and unburned stream with spatially extensive data, and a short-term (1 year) comparative study of spatial variability in temperatures using a "space for time" substitutive design across 90 sites in nine streams (retrospective comparative study). The latter design included streams with a history of stand-replacing wildfire and streams with severe post-fire reorganization of channels due to debris flows and flooding. Results from these three studies indicated that summer maximum water temperatures can remain significantly elevated for at least a decade following wildfire, particularly in streams with severe channel reorganization. In the retrospective comparative study we investigated occurrence of native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and tailed frog larvae (Ascaphus montanus) in relation to maximum stream temperatures during summer. Both occurred in nearly every site sampled, but tailed frog larvae were found in much warmer water than previously reported in the field (26.6??C maximum summer temperature). Our results show that physical stream habitats can remain altered (for example, increased temperature) for many years following wildfire, but that native aquatic vertebrates can be resilient. In a management context, this suggests wildfire may be less of a threat to native species than human influences that alter the capacity of stream-living vertebrates to persist in the face of natural disturbance. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Testing the metabolic theory of ecology with marine bacteria: different temperature sensitivity of major phylogenetic groups during the spring phytoplankton bloom.

PubMed

Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; G Morán, Xosé Anxelu

2017-11-01

Although temperature is a key driver of bacterioplankton metabolism, the effect of ocean warming on different bacterial phylogenetic groups remains unclear. Here, we conducted monthly short-term incubations with natural coastal bacterial communities over an annual cycle to test the effect of experimental temperature on the growth rates and carrying capacities of four phylogenetic groups: SAR11, Rhodobacteraceae, Gammaproteobacteria and Bacteroidetes. SAR11 was the most abundant group year-round as analysed by CARD-FISH, with maximum abundances in summer, while the other taxa peaked in spring. All groups, including SAR11, showed high temperature-sensitivity of growth rates and/or carrying capacities in spring, under phytoplankton bloom or post-bloom conditions. In that season, Rhodobacteraceae showed the strongest temperature response in growth rates, estimated here as activation energy (E, 1.43 eV), suggesting an advantage to outcompete other groups under warmer conditions. In summer E values were in general lower than 0.65 eV, the value predicted by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). Contrary to MTE predictions, carrying capacity tended to increase with warming for all bacterial groups. Our analysis confirms that resource availability is key when addressing the temperature response of heterotrophic bacterioplankton. We further show that even under nutrient-sufficient conditions, warming differentially affected distinct bacterioplankton taxa. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relations between fish abundances, summer temperatures, and forest harvest in a northern Minnesota stream system from 1997 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merten, Eric C.; Hemstad, Nathaniel A.; Eggert, L.S.; Johnson, L.B.; Kolka, R.K.; Newman, Raymond M.; Vondracek, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

Short-term effects of forest harvest on fish habitat have been well documented, including sediment inputs, leaf litter reductions, and stream warming. However, few studies have considered changes in local climate when examining postlogging changes in fish communities. To address this need, we examined fish abundances between 1997 and 2007 in a basin in a northern hardwood forest. Streams in the basin were subjected to experimental riparian forest harvest in fall 1997. We noted a significant decrease for fish index of biotic integrity and abundance of Salvelinus fontinalis and Phoxinus eos over the study period. However, for P. eos and Culaea inconstans, the temporal patterns in abundances were related more to summer air temperatures than to fine sediment or spring precipitation when examined using multiple regressions. Univariate regressions suggested that summer air temperatures influenced temporal patterns in fish communities more than fine sediment or spring precipitation.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

The Warmer the Weather, the More Gram-Negative Bacteria - Impact of Temperature on Clinical Isolates in Intensive Care Units

PubMed Central

Schwab, Frank; Gastmeier, Petra; Meyer, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Background We investigated the relationship between average monthly temperature and the most common clinical pathogens causing infections in intensive care patients. Methods A prospective unit-based study in 73 German intensive care units located in 41 different hospitals and 31 different cities with total 188,949 pathogen isolates (102,377 Gram-positives and 86,572 Gram-negatives) from 2001 to 2012. We estimated the relationship between the number of clinical pathogens per month and the average temperature in the month of isolation and in the month prior to isolation while adjusting for confounders and long-term trends using time series analysis. Adjusted incidence rate ratios for temperature parameters were estimated based on generalized estimating equation models which account for clustering effects. Results The incidence density of Gram-negative pathogens was 15% (IRR 1.15, 95%CI 1.10–1.21) higher at temperatures ≥20°C than at temperatures below 5°C. E. cloacae occurred 43% (IRR = 1.43; 95%CI 1.31–1.56) more frequently at high temperatures, A. baumannii 37% (IRR = 1.37; 95%CI 1.11–1.69), S. maltophilia 32% (IRR = 1.32; 95%CI 1.12–1.57), K. pneumoniae 26% (IRR = 1.26; 95%CI 1.13–1.39), Citrobacter spp. 19% (IRR = 1.19; 95%CI 0.99–1.44) and coagulase-negative staphylococci 13% (IRR = 1.13; 95%CI 1.04–1.22). By contrast, S. pneumoniae 35% (IRR = 0.65; 95%CI 0.50–0.84) less frequently isolated at high temperatures. For each 5°C increase, we observed a 3% (IRR = 1.03; 95%CI 1.02–1.04) increase of Gram-negative pathogens. This increase was highest for A. baumannii with 8% (IRR = 1.08; 95%CI 1.05–1.12) followed by K. pneumoniae, Citrobacter spp. and E. cloacae with 7%. Conclusion Clinical pathogens vary by incidence density with temperature. Significant higher incidence densities of Gram-negative pathogens were observed during summer whereas S. pneumoniae peaked in winter. There is increasing evidence that

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn

2015-01-13

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Drivers of Daily Routines in an Ectothermic Marine Predator: Hunt Warm, Rest Warmer?

PubMed Central

Papastamatiou, Yannis P.; Watanabe, Yuuki Y.; Bradley, Darcy; Dee, Laura E.; Weng, Kevin; Lowe, Christopher G.; Caselle, Jennifer E.

2015-01-01

Animal daily routines represent a compromise between maximizing foraging success and optimizing physiological performance, while minimizing the risk of predation. For ectothermic predators, ambient temperature may also influence daily routines through its effects on physiological performance. Temperatures can fluctuate significantly over the diel cycle and ectotherms may synchronize behaviour to match thermal regimes in order to optimize fitness. We used bio-logging to quantify activity and body temperature of blacktip reef sharks (Carcharhinus melanopterus) at a tropical atoll. Behavioural observations were used to concurrently measure bite rates in herbivorous reef fishes, as an index of activity for potential diurnal prey. Sharks showed early evening peaks in activity, particularly during ebbing high tides, while body temperatures peaked several hours prior to the period of maximal activity. Herbivores also displayed peaks in activity several hours earlier than the peaks in shark activity. Sharks appeared to be least active while their body temperatures were highest and most active while temperatures were cooling, although we hypothesize that due to thermal inertia they were still warmer than their smaller prey during this period. Sharks may be most active during early evening periods as they have a sensory advantage under low light conditions and/or a thermal advantage over cooler prey. Sharks swam into shallow water during daytime low tide periods potentially to warm up and increase rates of digestion before the nocturnal activity period, which may be a strategy to maximize ingestion rates. “Hunt warm, rest warmer” may help explain the early evening activity seen in other ectothermic predators. PMID:26061229

Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu

2013-10-01

This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV inmore » 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.« less

Relations between fish abundances, summer temperatures, and forest harvest in a northern Minnesota stream system from 1997 to 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merten, Eric C.; Hemstad, Nathaniel A.; Eggert, S.L.; Johnson, L.B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Newman, Raymond M.; Vondracek, Bruce C.

2010-01-01

Short-term effects of forest harvest on fish habitat have been well documented, including sediment inputs, leaf litter reductions, and stream warming. However, few studies have considered changes in local climate when examining postlogging changes in fish communities. To address this need, we examined fish abundances between 1997 and 2007 in a basin in a northern hardwood forest. Streams in the basin were subjected to experimental riparian forest harvest in fall 1997. We noted a significant decrease for fish index of biotic integrity and abundance of Salvelinus fontinalis and Phoxinus eos over the study period. However, for P. eos and Culaea inconstans, the temporal patterns in abundances were related more to summer air temperatures than to fine sediment or spring precipitation when examined using multiple regressions. Univariate regressions suggested that summer air temperatures influenced temporal patterns in fish communities more than fine sediment or spring precipitation.

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional

Studies of midlatitude mesospheric temperature variability and its relationship to gravity waves, tides, and planetary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beissner, Kenneth C.

1997-10-01

Temperature observations of the middle atmosphere have been carried out from September 1993 through July 1995 using a Rayleigh backscatter lidar located at Utah State University (42oN, 111oW). Data have been analyzed to obtain absolute temperature profiles from 40 to 90 km. Various sources of error were reviewed in order to ensure the quality of the measurements. This included conducting a detailed examination of the data reduction procedure, integration methods, and averaging techniques, eliminating errors of 1-3%. The temperature structure climatology has been compared with several other mid-latitude data sets, including those from the French lidars, the SME spacecraft, the sodium lidars at Ft. Collins and Urbana, the MSISe90 model, and a high- latitude composite set from Andenes, Norway. In general, good agreement occurs at mid-latitudes, but areas of disagreement do exist. Among these, the Utah temperatures are significantly warmer than the MSISe90 temperatures above approximately 80 km, they are lower below 80 km than any of the others in summer, they show major year- to-year variability in the winter profiles, and they differ from the sodium lidar data at the altitudes where the temperature profiles should overlap. Also, comparisons between observations and a physics based global circulation model, the TIME-GCM, were conducted for a mid-latitude site. A photo-chemical model was developed to predict airglow intensity of OH based on output from the TIME-GCM. Many discrepancies between the model and observations were found, including a modeled summer mesopause too high, a stronger summer inversion not normally observed by lidar, a fall-spring asymmetry in the OH winds and lidar temperatures but not reproduced in the TIME-GCM equinoctial periods, larger winter seasonal wind tide than observed by the FPI, and a failure of the model to reverse the summertime mesospheric jet. It is our conclusion these discrepancies are due to a gravity wave parameterization in the

The Thermal Structure, Dust Loading, and Meridional Transport in the Martian Atmosphere during Late Southern Summer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santee, Michelle

The thermal structure, dust loading, and meridional transport in the Martian atmosphere are investigated using thermal emission spectra recorded by the Mariner 9 infrared interferometer spectrometer (IRIS). The analysis is restricted to a subset of the IRIS data consisting of approximately 2400 spectra spanning L_{S} = 343^circ-348^ circ, corresponding to late southern summer on Mars. Simultaneous retrieval of the vertical distribution of both atmospheric temperature and dust optical depth is accomplished through an iterative procedure which is performed on each spectrum. Although atmospheric temperatures decrease from equator to pole at lower altitudes, both dayside and nightside temperatures above about 0.1 mbar (~40 km) are warmer over the winter (north) polar region than over the equator or the summer (south) polar region. Zonal-mean zonal winds are derived from the atmospheric temperatures assuming gradient wind balance and zero surface zonal wind. Both hemispheres have intense mid-latitude westerly jets (with velocities of 80-90 m/s near 50 km); in the southern tropics the winds are strongly easterly (with velocities of 100 m/s near 50 km). A comprehensive radiative transfer model (Crisp, 1990) is used to compute solar heating and thermal cooling rates from the retrieved IRIS temperature and dust distributions. There are large net heating rates (up to 8 K/day) in the equatorial region and large net cooling rates (up to 20 K/day) in the polar regions. These net heating rates are used in a diagnostic stream function model which solves for the meridional and vertical components of the diabatic circulation simultaneously. The results show a vigorous two-cell circulation, with rising motion over the equatorial region ( ~1.5 cm/s), poleward flow in both hemispheres (~2 m/s), sinking motion over both polar regions (1-2 cm/s), and return flow in the lowest atmospheric levels. The meridional transport time scale is ~13 days. Water vapor desorbed from the low

A 2000-year European Mean Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Comparison to Millennium-Length Forced Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Büntgen, U.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Esper, J.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F. J.; Luterbacher, J.; McCarroll, D.; Wagner, S.; Wahl, E. R.; Wanner, H.; Werner, J.; Zorita, E.

2012-12-01

A reconstruction of mean European summer (JJA) land temperatures from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). Eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions were used for the reconstruction and compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. The calibration time series was the area-weighted JJA temperature computed from the CRUTEM4v dataset over a European land domain (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). A nested 'Composite-Plus-Scale' reconstruction was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated by standardizing the available predictor series over the calibration interval, and subsequently calculating a weighted composite in which each proxy was multiplied by its correlation with the target index. The CPS methodology was implemented using a resampling scheme that uses 104 years for calibration. The initial calibration period extended from 1850-1953 C.E. and was incremented by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E., yielding a total of 51 reconstructions for each nest. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. Warm periods in the derived reconstruction during the 1st, 2nd, and 7th-12th centuries compare to

Enhanced growth of Juniperus thurifera under a warmer climate is explained by a positive carbon gain under cold and drought.

PubMed

Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando

2012-03-01

Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.

Stability of hemostatic proteins in canine fresh-frozen plasma thawed with a modified commercial microwave warmer or warm water bath.

PubMed

Pashmakova, Medora B; Barr, James W; Bishop, Micah A

2015-05-01

To compare stability of hemostatic proteins in canine fresh-frozen plasma (FFP) thawed with a modified commercial microwave warmer (MCM) or warm water bath (37°C; WWB) or at room temperature (22°C). Fresh-frozen plasma obtained from 8 canine donors of a commercial blood bank. A commercial microwave warmer was modified with a thermocouple to measure surface temperature of bags containing plasma. The MCM and a WWB were each used to concurrently thaw a 60-mL bag of plasma obtained from the same donor. Two 3-mL control aliquots of FFP from each donor were thawed to room temperature without use of a heating device. Concentrations of hemostatic proteins, albumin, and D-dimers; prothrombin time (PT); and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) were determined for all samples. Significant decreases in concentrations of factors II, IX, X, XI, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor, antithrombin, protein C, and albumin and significant increases in PT and aPTT were detected for plasma thawed with the MCM, compared with results for samples thawed with the WWB. Concentrations of factors VII, VIII, and XII were not significantly different between plasma thawed with the MCM and WWB. Concentrations of D-dimers were above the reference range for all thawed samples regardless of thawing method. No significant differences in factor concentrations were detected between control and WWB-thawed samples. Significant differences in hemostatic protein concentrations and coagulation times were detected for plasma thawed with an MCM but not between control and WWB-thawed samples. Clinical importance of these changes should be investigated.

Daily fire occurrence in northern Eurasia from 2002 to 2009

Treesearch

W. M. Hao; H. M. Eissinger; A. Petkov; B. L. Nordgren; Shawn Urbanski

2010-01-01

Northern Eurasia, covering 20% of the global land mass and containing 70% of boreal forest, is extremely sensitive to climate changes. Warmer temperatures in this region have led to less snowfall, earlier spring, longer growing season, and reduced moisture for soil and vegetation in summer. Recently, severe drought and record high temperatures caused catastrophic fires...

Contradictory cooling in a warmer world? the climate of the Mediterranean region during the ';Holocene Thermal Maximum'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, B.

2013-12-01

Extensive evidence from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere indicates that temperatures were warmer than present during the early-mid Holocene, a period known as the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). The existence of the HTM over lower mid-latitudes and the sub-tropics however is less clear, with pollen-based reconstructions in particular actually indicating a contrary cooling at this time in these regions. This apparent cooling is controversial because it is not shown in climate model simulations, which indicate that the HTM occurred across all extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is also supported by alkenone based SST reconstructions, which also show a much more widespread HTM than indicated by the pollen data. Here this problem is investigated by reviewing the evidence both for, and against, the HTM in the Mediterranean region, which represents one of the most intensively studied regions of sub-tropical climate in the Northern Hemisphere. This evidence includes a large number of both marine and terrestrial records that can be directly compared due to their close proximity around the Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight the potential for bias in both marine and terrestrial climate proxies, but despite many criticisms of the pollen-based record, it is shown that the existence of more extensive temperate vegetation in the early-mid Holocene in the Mediterranean is difficult to explain by anything other than a cooler climate. For instance, vegetation models driven by climate model output show that the warmer climate suggested by the models produces a HTM vegetation even more arid than today. The results have important implications in the interpretation of proxy records, but perhaps most importantly, the potential for climate models to underestimate cooling processes in a warmer world needs further investigation.

Thermal physiology of native cool-climate, and non-native warm-climate Pumpkinseed sunfish raised in a common environment.

PubMed

Rooke, Anna C; Burness, Gary; Fox, Michael G

2017-02-01

Contemporary evolution of thermal physiology has the potential to help limit the physiological stress associated with rapidly changing thermal environments; however it is unclear if wild populations can respond quickly enough for such changes to be effective. We used native Canadian Pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus) sunfish, and non-native Pumpkinseed introduced into the milder climate of Spain ~100 years ago, to assess genetic differences in thermal physiology in response to the warmer non-native climate. We compared temperature performance reaction norms of two Canadian and two Spanish Pumpkinseed populations born and raised within a common environment. We found that Canadian Pumpkinseed had higher routine metabolic rates when measured at seasonally high temperatures (15°C in winter, 30°C in summer), and that Spanish Pumpkinseed had higher critical thermal maxima when acclimated to 30°C in the summer. Growth rates were not significantly different among populations, however Canadian Pumpkinseed tended to have faster growth at the warmest temperatures measured (32°C). The observed differences in physiology among Canadian and Spanish populations at the warmest acclimation temperatures are consistent with the introduced populations being better suited to the warmer non-native climate than native populations. The observed differences could be the result of either founder effects, genetic drift, and/or contemporary adaptive evolution in the warmer non-native climate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

2013-04-01

In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

Increased temperature and altered summer precipitation have differential effects on biological soil crusts in a dryland ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Shannon L.; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Carney, Travis D.; Housman, David C.; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Belnap, Jayne

2012-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common and ecologically important members of dryland ecosystems worldwide, where they stabilize soil surfaces and contribute newly fixed C and N to soils. To test the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios on biocrusts in a dryland ecosystem, the effects of a 2–3 °C increase in soil temperature and an increased frequency of smaller summer precipitation events were examined in a large, replicated field study conducted in the cold desert of the Colorado Plateau, USA. Surface soil biomass (DNA concentration), photosynthetically active cyanobacterial biomass (chlorophyll a concentration), cyanobacterial abundance (quantitative PCR assay), and bacterial community composition (16S rRNA gene sequencing) were monitored seasonally over 2 years. Soil microbial biomass and bacterial community composition were highly stratified between the 0–2 cm depth biocrusts and 5–10 cm depth soil beneath the biocrusts. The increase in temperature did not have a detectable effect on any of the measured parameters over 2 years. However, after the second summer of altered summer precipitation pattern, significant declines occurred in the surface soil biomass (avg. DNA concentration declined 38%), photosynthetic cyanobacterial biomass (avg. chlorophyll a concentration declined 78%), cyanobacterial abundance (avg. gene copies g−1 soil declined 95%), and proportion of Cyanobacteria in the biocrust bacterial community (avg. representation in sequence libraries declined 85%). Biocrusts are important contributors to soil stability, soil C and N stores, and plant performance, and the loss or reduction of biocrusts under an altered precipitation pattern associated with climate change could contribute significantly to lower soil fertility and increased erosion and dust production in dryland ecosystems at a regional scale.

Temperament, Tympanum, and Temperature: Four Provisional Studies of the Biobehavioral Correlates of Tympanic Membrane Temperature Asymmetries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyce, W. Thomas; Essex, Marilyn J.; Alkon, Abbey; Smider, Nancy A.; Pickrell, Tyler; Kagan, Jerome

2002-01-01

Examined associations between tympanic membrane (TM) temperature asymmetries and biobehavioral attributes of 4- to 8- year-old children. Found shared patterns of associations that linked TM temperature lateralities to individual differences in behavior and socioaffective difficulties. Found that warmer left TMs were associated with affectively…

A scaleable methodology for assessing the impacts of urban shade on the summer electricity use of residential homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Robert Vanderlei

Our cities are experiencing unprecedented growth while net global temperatures continue to trend warmer making sustainable urban development and energy conservation pressing public issues. This research explores how urban landscaping -- in particular trees and buildings -- affect summer electricity use in residential homes. I studied the interactions of urban shade and temperature to explore how vegetation distribution and intensity could play a meaningful role in heat mitigation in urban environments. Only a few studies have reconciled modeled electricity savings from tree shade with actual electricity consumption data. This research proposes a methodology for modeling the isolated effects of urban shade (tree shade vs building shade) on buildings' summertime electricity consumption from micro to mesoscales, empirically validating the modeled shade with actual electricity billing data, and comparing the electric energetic impact of tree shade effects with building shade effects. This proposed methodology seeks to resolve three primary research questions: 1) What are the modeled quantities of urban shade associated with the area of interest (AOI)? 2) To what extent do the effects of shading from trees and buildings mitigate summertime heat in the AOI? 2) To what extent do the shade effects from trees and buildings reduce summertime electricity consumption in the AOI?

Chronic stress of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss at high altitude: a field study.

PubMed

Hunt von Herbing, I; Pan, T-C F; Méndez-Sánchez, F; Garduño-Paz, M; Hernández-Gallegos, O; Ruiz-Gómez, M L; Rodríguez-Vargas, G

2015-07-01

The stress response of Oncorhynchus mykiss in high-altitude farms in central Mexico was investigated over two seasons: the cool (9·1-13·7° C) dry winter season, and the warmer (14·7-15·9° C), wetter summer season. Fish were subjected to an acute stress test followed by sampling of six physiological variables: blood cortisol, glucose, lactate, total antioxidant capacity, haemoglobin concentration and per cent packed cell volume (VPC %). Multivariate analyses revealed that lactate and total antioxidant capacity were significantly higher in the summer, when water temperatures were warmer and moderate hypoxia (4·9-5·3 mg l(-1) ) prevailed. In contrast, plasma cortisol was significantly higher in the winter (mean ± s.e.: 76·7 ± 4·0 ng ml(-1) ) when temperatures were cooler and dissolved oxygen levels higher (6·05-7·9 mg l(-1) ), than in the summer (22·7 ± 3·8 ng ml(-1) ). Haemoglobin concentrations (mg dl(-1) ) were not significantly different between seasons, but VPC % was significantly higher in the summer (50%) than in the winter (35%). These results suggest that in summer, effects of high altitude on farmed fish are exacerbated by stresses of high temperatures and hypoxia, resulting in higher blood lactate, increased total antioxidant capacity and elevated VPC % levels. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea-ice in late summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shupe, M. D.; Persson, P. O. G.; Brooks, I. M.; Tjernström, M.; Sedlar, J.; Mauritsen, T.; Sjogren, S.; Leck, C.

2013-05-01

Observations from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), in the central Arctic sea-ice pack in late summer 2008, provide a detailed view of cloud-atmosphere-surface interactions and vertical mixing processes over the sea-ice environment. Measurements from a suite of ground-based remote sensors, near surface meteorological and aerosol instruments, and profiles from radiosondes and a helicopter are combined to characterize a week-long period dominated by low-level, mixed-phase, stratocumulus clouds. Detailed case studies and statistical analyses are used to develop a conceptual model for the cloud and atmosphere structure and their interactions in this environment. Clouds were persistent during the period of study, having qualities that suggest they were sustained through a combination of advective influences and in-cloud processes, with little contribution from the surface. Radiative cooling near cloud top produced buoyancy-driven, turbulent eddies that contributed to cloud formation and created a cloud-driven mixed layer. The depth of this mixed layer was related to the amount of turbulence and condensed cloud water. Coupling of this cloud-driven mixed layer to the surface boundary layer was primarily determined by proximity. For 75% of the period of study, the primary stratocumulus cloud-driven mixed layer was decoupled from the surface and typically at a warmer potential temperature. Since the near-surface temperature was constrained by the ocean-ice mixture, warm temperatures aloft suggest that these air masses had not significantly interacted with the sea-ice surface. Instead, back trajectory analyses suggest that these warm airmasses advected into the central Arctic Basin from lower latitudes. Moisture and aerosol particles likely accompanied these airmasses, providing necessary support for cloud formation. On the occasions when cloud-surface coupling did occur, back trajectories indicated that these air masses advected at low levels, while mixing

Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea ice in late summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shupe, M. D.; Persson, P. O. G.; Brooks, I. M.; Tjernström, M.; Sedlar, J.; Mauritsen, T.; Sjogren, S.; Leck, C.

2013-09-01

Observations from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), in the central Arctic sea-ice pack in late summer 2008, provide a detailed view of cloud-atmosphere-surface interactions and vertical mixing processes over the sea-ice environment. Measurements from a suite of ground-based remote sensors, near-surface meteorological and aerosol instruments, and profiles from radiosondes and a helicopter are combined to characterize a week-long period dominated by low-level, mixed-phase, stratocumulus clouds. Detailed case studies and statistical analyses are used to develop a conceptual model for the cloud and atmosphere structure and their interactions in this environment. Clouds were persistent during the period of study, having qualities that suggest they were sustained through a combination of advective influences and in-cloud processes, with little contribution from the surface. Radiative cooling near cloud top produced buoyancy-driven, turbulent eddies that contributed to cloud formation and created a cloud-driven mixed layer. The depth of this mixed layer was related to the amount of turbulence and condensed cloud water. Coupling of this cloud-driven mixed layer to the surface boundary layer was primarily determined by proximity. For 75% of the period of study, the primary stratocumulus cloud-driven mixed layer was decoupled from the surface and typically at a warmer potential temperature. Since the near-surface temperature was constrained by the ocean-ice mixture, warm temperatures aloft suggest that these air masses had not significantly interacted with the sea-ice surface. Instead, back-trajectory analyses suggest that these warm air masses advected into the central Arctic Basin from lower latitudes. Moisture and aerosol particles likely accompanied these air masses, providing necessary support for cloud formation. On the occasions when cloud-surface coupling did occur, back trajectories indicated that these air masses advected at low levels, while mixing

The relationship between indoor and outdoor temperature, apparent temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Jennifer L.; Schwartz, Joel; Dockery, Douglas W.

2013-01-01

Introduction Many studies report an association between outdoor ambient weather and health. Outdoor conditions may be a poor indicator of personal exposure because people spend most of their time indoors. Few studies have examined how indoor conditions relate to outdoor ambient weather. Methods and Results The average indoor temperature, apparent temperature, relative humidity (RH), and absolute humidity (AH) measured in 16 homes in Greater Boston, Massachusetts, from May 2011 - April 2012 was compared to measurements taken at Boston Logan airport. The relationship between indoor and outdoor temperatures is non-linear. At warmer outdoor temperatures, there is a strong correlation between indoor and outdoor temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = 0.91, slope, β = 0.41), but at cooler temperatures, the association is weak (r = 0.40, β = 0.04). Results were similar for outdoor apparent temperature. The relationships were linear for RH and AH. The correlation for RH was modest (r = 0.55, β = 0.39). AH exhibited the strongest indoor-to-outdoor correlation (r = 0.96, β = 0.69). Conclusions Indoor and outdoor temperatures correlate well only at warmer outdoor temperatures. Outdoor RH is a poor indicator of indoor RH, while indoor AH has a strong correlation with outdoor AH year-round. PMID:23710826

Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming.

PubMed

Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sönke; Banguera-Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R; Wahl, Martin

2015-03-10

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

PubMed Central

Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sönke; Banguera-Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wahl, Martin

2015-01-01

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21–27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28–33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28–29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals. PMID:25754672

Reconstruction of full glacial environments and summer temperatures from Lago della Costa, a refugial site in Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samartin, Stéphanie; Heiri, Oliver; Kaltenrieder, Petra; Kühl, Norbert; Tinner, Willy

2016-07-01

Vegetation and climate during the last ice age and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼23,000-19,000 cal BP) were considerably different than during the current interglacial (Holocene). Cold climatic conditions and growing ice-sheets during the last glaciation radically reduced forest extent in Europe to a restricted number of so-called ;refugia;, mostly located in the southern part of the continent. On the basis of paleobotanical analyses the Euganian Hills (Colli Euganei) in northeastern Italy have previously been proposed as one of the northernmost refugia of temperate trees (e.g. deciduous Quercus, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior, Acer, Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Carpinus and Castanea) in Europe. In this study we provide the first quantitative, vegetation independent summer air temperature reconstruction for Northern Italy spanning the time ∼31,000-17,000 cal yr BP, which covers the coldest periods of the last glacial, including the LGM and Heinrich stadials 1 to 3. Chironomids preserved in a lake sediment core from Lago della Costa (7m a.s.l.), a small lake at the south-eastern edge of the Euganean Hills, allowed quantitative reconstruction of Full and Late Glacial summer air temperatures using a combined Swiss-Norwegian temperature inference model based on chironomid assemblages from 274 lakes. Chironomid and pollen evidence from Lago della Costa derives from finely stratified autochthonous organic gyttja sediments, which excludes major sediment mixing or reworking. After reconstructing paleo-temperatures, we address the question whether climate conditions were warm enough to permit the local survival of temperate tree species during the LGM and whether local expansions and pollen-inferred contractions of temperate tree taxa coincided with chironomid-inferred climatic changes. Our results suggest that chironomids at Lago della Costa have responded to major climatic fluctuations such as temperature decreases during the LGM and Heinrich stadials. The

Black Sea impact on its west-coast land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheval, Sorin; Constantin, Sorin

2018-03-01

This study investigates the Black Sea influence on the thermal characteristics of its western hinterland based on satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The marine impact on the land surface temperature (LST) values is detected at daily, seasonal and annual time scales, and a strong linkage with the land cover is demonstrated. The remote sensing products used within the study supply LST data with complete areal coverage during clear sky conditions at 1-km spatial resolution, which is appropriate for climate studies. The sea influence is significant up to 4-5 km, by daytime, while the nighttime influence is very strong in the first 1-2 km, and it gradually decreases westward. Excepting the winter, the daytime temperature increases towards the plateau with the distance from the sea, e.g. with a gradient of 0.9 °C/km in the first 5 km in spring or with 0.7 °C/km in summer. By nighttime, the sea water usually remains warmer than the contiguous land triggering higher LST values in the immediate proximity of the coastline in all seasons, e.g. mean summer LST is 19.0 °C for the 1-km buffer, 16.6 °C for the 5-km buffer and 16.0 °C for the 10-km buffer. The results confirm a strong relationship between the land cover and thermal regime in the western hinterland of the Black Sea coast. The satellite-derived LST and air temperature values recorded at the meteorological stations are highly correlated for similar locations, but the marine influence propagates differently, pledging for distinct analysis. Identified anomalies in the general observed trends are investigated in correlation with sea surface temperature dynamics in the coastal area.

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa.

PubMed

Kapwata, Thandi; Gebreslasie, Michael T; Mathee, Angela; Wright, Caradee Yael

2018-05-10

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4⁻6 °C for the period 2071⁻2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088⁻2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas

Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-02-01

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitationmore » (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.« less

Influence of the Summer NAO on the Spring-NAO-Based Predictability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Fei

2017-04-01

The dominant mode of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic region is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The boreal spring NAO may imprint its signal on contemporaneous sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a North Atlantic SST tripolar pattern (NAST). This pattern persists into the following summer and modulates the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Previous studies have shown that the summer NAST is caused mainly by the preceding spring NAO, whereas the contemporaneous summer NAO plays a secondary role. The results of this study illustrate that, even if the summer NAO plays a secondary role, it may also perturb summer SST anomalies caused by the spring NAO. There are two types of perturbation caused by the summer NAO. If the spring and summer NAO patterns have the same (opposite) polarities, the summer NAST tends to be enhanced (reduced) by the summer NAO, and the correlation between the spring NAO and EASM is usually stronger (weaker). In the former (latter) case, the spring-NAO-based prediction of the EASM tends to have better (limited) skill. These results indicate that it is important to consider the evolution of the NAO when forecasting the EASM, particular when there is a clear reversal in the polarity of the NAO, because it may impair the spring-NAO-based EASM prediction.

Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

PubMed

Wegge, Per; Rolstad, Jørund

2017-11-15

Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix , could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs. © 2017 The Authors.

[Effects of urban river width on the temperature and humidity of nearby green belts in summer].

PubMed

Ji, Peng; Zhu, Chun-Yang; Li, Shu-Hua

2012-03-01

As an important part of urban ecosystem, urban river plays a vital role in improving urban ecological environment. By the methods of small scale quantitative measurement, this paper analyzed the effects of seven urban rivers with different widths along the Third to Fifth Ring in Beijing on the air temperature and relative humidity of nearby green belts. The results showed that urban river width was the main factor affecting the temperature and humidity of nearby green belts. When the river had a width of 8 m, it had no effects in decreasing temperature but definite effects in increasing humidity; when the river width was 14-33 m, obvious effects were observed in decreasing temperature and increasing humidity; when the river had a width larger than 40 m, the effects in decreasing temperature and increasing humidity were significant and tended to be stable. There existed significant differences in the temperature and humidity between the green belts near the seven rivers and the corresponding controls. The critical width of urban river for the obvious effects in decreasing temperature and increasing humidity was 44 m. The regression equation of the temperature (x) and humidity (y) for the seven green belts nearby the urban rivers in summer was y = 173.191-3.247x, with the relative humidity increased by 1.0% when the air temperature decreased by about 0.3 degrees C.

Observed and Projected Droughts Conditioned on Temperature Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, F.; AghaKouchak, A.; Mazdiyasni, O.

2016-12-01

Droughts have had severe urban, agricultural and wildlife impacts in historical and recent years. In addition, during times of water scarcity, heat stress has been shown to produce compounding climatic and environmental effects. Understanding the overall conditions associated with drought intensities is important for mapping the anatomy of the climate in the changing world. For the study, we evaluated the relationship drought severity has exhibited with temperature shifts between observed periods and also between an ensemble of BCSD downscaled CMIP5 projected and historically modeled datasets. We compared temperatures during different categories of drought severity on a monthly scale, and mapped areas displaying an escalation of temperature with stricter definitions of drought. A historical shift of warmer temperatures in more severe droughts was observed most consistently in Southwestern and Eastern states between the later half of the 20th century and a reference period of the early half of the 20th century. Future projections from an ensemble of CMIP5 models also showed a shift to warmer temperatures during more intense drought events in similar states. Preliminary statistics show that in many areas future droughts will be warmer that the average projected climate. These observed and forecasted shifts in the heating intensity of severe drought events underscore the need to further research these patterns and relationships both spatially and temporally.

Salt appetite is not increased in summer heat.

PubMed

Leshem, Micah

2017-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that salt appetite increases in summer heat due to increased sodium loss due to increased drinking and perspiration. A test battery in the same sample of healthy young people tested in summer and winter revealed no seasonal differences in salt appetite (or fluid intake) despite a 10 °C rise in mean environmental temperature. Unexpectedly, sweet preference is reduced in summer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Warm summers during the Younger Dryas cold reversal.

PubMed

Schenk, Frederik; Väliranta, Minna; Muschitiello, Francesco; Tarasov, Lev; Heikkilä, Maija; Björck, Svante; Brandefelt, Jenny; Johansson, Arne V; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2018-04-24

The Younger Dryas (YD) cold reversal interrupts the warming climate of the deglaciation with global climatic impacts. The sudden cooling is typically linked to an abrupt slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in response to meltwater discharges from ice sheets. However, inconsistencies regarding the YD-response of European summer temperatures have cast doubt whether the concept provides a sufficient explanation. Here we present results from a high-resolution global climate simulation together with a new July temperature compilation based on plant indicator species and show that European summers remain warm during the YD. Our climate simulation provides robust physical evidence that atmospheric blocking of cold westerly winds over Fennoscandia is a key mechanism counteracting the cooling impact of an AMOC-slowdown during summer. Despite the persistence of short warm summers, the YD is dominated by a shift to a continental climate with extreme winter to spring cooling and short growing seasons.

Diurnal foraging of a wild coral-reef fish Parapercis australis in relation to late-summer temperatures.

PubMed

Chase, T J; Nowicki, J P; Coker, D J

2018-06-06

In situ observations of diurnal foraging behaviour of a common site-attached shallow reef mesopredator Parapercis australis during late summer, revealed that although diet composition was unaffected by seawater temperature (range 28.3-32.4° C), feeding strikes and distance moved increased with temperature up to 30.5° C, beyond which they sharply declined, indicative of currently living beyond their thermal optimum. Diel feeding strikes and distance moved were however, tightly linked to ambient temperature as it related to the population's apparent thermal optimum, peaking at times when it was approached (1230 and 1700 hours) and declining up to four fold at times deviating from this. These findings suggest that although this population may be currently living beyond its thermal optimum, it copes by down regulating energetically costly foraging movement and consumption and under future oceanic temperatures, these behavioural modifications are probably insufficient to avoid deleterious effects on population viability without the aid of long-term acclimation or adaptation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spatial clustering and meteorological drivers of summer ozone in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carro-Calvo, Leopoldo; Ordóñez, Carlos; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Schnell, Jordan L.

2017-04-01

We present a regionalization of summer near-surface ozone (O3) in Europe. For this purpose we apply a K-means algorithm on a gridded MDA8 O3 (maximum daily average 8-h ozone) dataset covering a European domain [15° W - 30° E, 35°-70° N] at 1° x 1° horizontal resolution for the 1998-2012 period. This dataset was compiled by merging observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase). The K-means method allows identifying sets of different regions where the O3 concentrations present coherent spatiotemporal patterns and are thus expected to be driven by similar meteorological factors. After some testing, 9 regions were selected: the British Isles, North-Central Europe, Northern Scandinavia, the Baltic countries, the Iberian Peninsula, Western Europe, South-Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Balkans. For each region we examine the synoptic situations associated with elevated ozone extremes (days exceeding the 95th percentile of the summer MDA8 O3 distribution). Our analyses reveal that there are basically two different kinds of regions in Europe: (a) those in the centre and south of the continent where ozone extremes are associated with elevated temperature within the same region and (b) those in northern Europe where ozone extremes are driven by southerly advection of air masses from warmer, more polluted areas. Even when the observed patterns were initially identified only for days registering high O3 extremes, all summer days can be projected on such patterns to identify the main modes of meteorological variability of O3. We have found that such modes are partly responsible for the day-to-day variability in the O3 concentrations and can explain a relatively large fraction (from 44 to 88 %, depending on the region) of the interannual variability of summer mean MDA8 O3 during the period of analysis. On the other hand, some major teleconnection patterns have been tested

Nest temperature fluctuations in a cavity nester, the southern ground-hornbill.

PubMed

Combrink, L; Combrink, H J; Botha, A J; Downs, C T

2017-05-01

Southern ground-hornbills Bucorvus leadbeateri inhabit savanna and bushveld regions of South Africa. They nest in the austral summer, which coincides with the wet season and hottest daytime temperatures in the region. They are secondary cavity nesters and typically nest in large cavities in trees, cliffs and earth banks, but readily use artificial nest boxes. Southern ground-hornbills are listed as Endangered in South Africa, with reintroductions into suitable areas highlighted as a viable conservation intervention for the species. Nest microclimate, and the possible implications this may have for the breeding biology of southern ground-hornbills, have never been investigated. We used temperature dataloggers to record nest cavity temperature and ambient temperature for one artificial and 11 natural southern ground-hornbill tree cavity nests combined, spanning two breeding seasons. Mean hourly nest temperature, as well as mean minimum and mean maximum nest temperature, differed significantly between southern ground-hornbill nests in both breeding seasons. Mean nest temperature also differed significantly from mean ambient temperature for both seasons. Natural nest cavities provided a buffer against the ambient temperature fluctuations. The artificial nest provided little insulation against temperature extremes, being warmer and cooler than the maximum and minimum local ambient temperatures, respectively. Nest cavity temperature was not found to have an influence on the breeding success of the southern ground-hornbill groups investigated in this study. These results have potentially important implications for southern ground-hornbill conservation and artificial nest design, as they suggest that the birds can tolerate greater nest cavity temperature extremes than previously thought. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Rising water temperatures, reproduction and recruitment of an invasive oyster, Crassostrea gigas, on the French Atlantic coast.

PubMed

Dutertre, Mickaël; Beninger, Peter G; Barillé, Laurent; Papin, Mathias; Haure, Joël

2010-02-01

The recent appearance and invasion of feral oysters (Crassostrea gigas) along the northern European Atlantic coast, underscores the necessity to investigate the relationship between environmental variables, reproductive physiology, larval development and recruitment. We studied these relationships at both high (HT) and intermediate (IT) - turbidity sites, through historical data on water temperatures, multi-parameter environmental probes, histological analyses, and field collections of planktonic larvae and settled post-larvae in 2005 and 2006. A progressive warming trend was observed, especially since 1995, when oyster proliferation first became severe. Threshold temperatures for oocyte growth, larval development and settlement were achieved in both 2005 and 2006. The HT site showed greater numbers of larvae and post-larvae than the IT site for both years, with the highest numbers of post-larvae observed at both sites during the warmer summer of 2006. These results suggest that increased temperatures in northern European waters allow successful reproduction, larval development, and recruitment of C. gigas. High turbidity conditions further enhance this success. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Data-Model Comparison over Europe using a new 2000-yr Summer Temperature Reconstruction from the PAGES 2k Regional Network and Last-Millennium GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, Jason; Werner, Johannes; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Buntgen, Ulf; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Esper, Jan; Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, J.; Luterbacher, Juerg; McCarroll, Danny; Wagner, Sebastian; Wahl, Eugene; Wanner, Heinz; Zorita, Eduardo

2013-04-01

A new reconstruction of European summer (JJA) land temperatures is presented and compared to 37 forced transient simulations of the last millennium from coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The reconstructions are derived from eleven annually resolved tree-ring and documentary records from ten European countries/regions, compiled as part of the Euro_Med working group contribution to the PAGES 2k Regional Network. Records were selected based upon their summer temperature signal, annual resolution, and time-continuous sampling. All tree-ring data were detrended using the Regional Curve Standardization (RCS) method to retain low-frequency variance in the resulting mean chronologies. A nested Composite-Plus-Scale (CPS) mean temperature reconstruction extending from 138 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. was derived using nine nests reflecting the availability of predictors back in time. Each nest was calculated using a weighted composite based on the correlation of each proxy with the CRUTEM4v mean European JJA land temperature (35°-70°N, 10°W-40°E). The CPS methodology was implemented using a sliding calibration period, initially extending from 1850-1953 C.E. and incrementing by one year until reaching the final period of 1900-2003 C.E. Within each calibration step, the 50 years excluded from calibration were used for validation. Validation statistics across all reconstruction ensemble members within each nest indicate skillful reconstructions (RE: 0.42-0.64; CE: 0.26-0.54) and are all above the maximum validation statistics achieved in an ensemble of red noise benchmarking experiments. A gridded (5°x5°) European summer (JJA) temperature reconstruction back to 750 C.E. was derived using Bayesian inference together with a localized stochastic description of the underlying processes. Instrumental data are JJA means from the 5° European land grid cells in the CRUTEM4v dataset. Predictive experiments using the full proxy data were made, resulting in a multivariate

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management

Treesearch

Daniel J. Chmura; Paul D. Anderson; Glenn T. Howe; Constance A. Harrington; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; David C. Shaw; Brad J. St Clair

2011-01-01

Climate change resulting from increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide ([C02]) is expected to result in warmer temperatures and changed precipitation regimes during this century. In the northwestern U.S., these changes will likely decrease snowpack, cause earlier snowmelt, increase summer evapotranspiration, and increase the...

Temperature and salinity variability in the exit passages of the Indonesian Throughflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintall, Janet; Potemra, James T.; Hautala, Susan L.; Bray, Nancy A.; Pandoe, Wahyu W.

2003-07-01

The Indonesian Throughflow was monitored from December 1995 until May 1999 in the five major exit passages of the Lesser Sunda Islands, as it flows from the Indonesian interior seas into the southeast Indian Ocean. The monitoring array included pairs of shallow pressure gauges at each side of the straits, equipped with temperature and salinity sensors. As in the inferred geostrophic velocity from the cross-strait pressure gauge data, the temperature and salinity data show strong variability over all time scales related to the local regional and remote forcing mechanisms of heat, freshwater and wind. The annual cycle dominates the temperature time series, with warmest temperatures occurring during the austral summer northwest monsoon, except in Lombok Strait where the semi-annual signal is dominant, and related to the Indian Ocean westerly wind-forced Kelvin waves during the monsoon transitions that supply Indian Ocean warmer surface water to the strait. In the salinity data, the annual signal again dominates the time series in all straits, with a distinct freshening occurring in March-May. This is partly related to the rainfall and resultant voluminous river runoff impacting the region, one month after the wetter northwest monsoon ends in March. The fresh, warm water from the monsoon-transition Indian Ocean Kelvin wave also contributes to the freshening observed in May. There is little cross-strait gradient in near-surface temperature and salinity through the outflow straits, except in Lombok Strait, where Lombok is warmer (except during the northwest monsoon) and fresher than the Bali site (especially during March through May). A fortnightly signal in temperature is found in Ombai and Sumba Straits, and is probably related to the proximity of these straits to the interior Banda Sea where the fortnightly tidal signal is strong. The fortnightly signal is also evident at the Bali site, although not at the Lombok site. Numerous ADCP surveys taken during the survey

Influence of Western Tibetan Plateau Summer Snow Cover on East Asian Summer Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhibiao; Wu, Renguang; Chen, Shangfeng; Huang, Gang; Liu, Ge; Zhu, Lihua

2018-03-01

The influence of boreal winter-spring eastern Tibetan Plateau snow anomalies on the East Asian summer rainfall variability has been the focus of previous studies. The present study documents the impacts of boreal summer western and southern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies on summer rainfall over East Asia. Analysis shows that more snow cover in the western and southern Tibetan Plateau induces anomalous cooling in the overlying atmospheric column. The induced atmospheric circulation changes are different corresponding to more snow cover in the western and southern Tibetan Plateau. The atmospheric circulation changes accompanying the western Plateau snow cover anomalies are more obvious over the midlatitude Asia, whereas those corresponding to the southern Plateau snow cover anomalies are more prominent over the tropics. As such, the western and southern Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomalies influence the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation through different pathways. Nevertheless, the East Asian summer circulation and precipitation anomalies induced by the western and southern Plateau snow cover anomalies tend to display similar distribution so that they are more pronounced when the western and southern Plateau snow cover anomalies work in coherence. Analysis indicates that the summer snow cover anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau may be related to late spring snow anomalies due to the persistence. The late spring snow anomalies are related to an obvious wave train originating from the western North Atlantic that may be partly associated with sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Arabian Oryx (Oryx leucoryx) Respond to Increased Ambient Temperatures with a Seasonal Shift in the Timing of Their Daily Inactivity Patterns.

PubMed

Davimes, Joshua G; Alagaili, Abdulaziz N; Gravett, Nadine; Bertelsen, Mads F; Mohammed, Osama B; Ismail, Khairy; Bennett, Nigel C; Manger, Paul R

2016-08-01

The Arabian oryx inhabits an environment where summer ambient temperatures can exceed 40 °C for extended periods of time. While the oryx uses a suite of adaptations that aid survival, the effects of this extreme environment on inactivity are unknown. To determine how the oryx manages inactivity seasonally, we measured the daily rhythm of body temperature and used fine-grain actigraphy, in 10 animals, to reveal when the animals were inactive in relation to ambient temperature and photoperiod. We demonstrate that during the cooler winter months, the oryx was inactive during the cooler parts of the 24-h day (predawn hours), showing a nighttime (nocturnal) inactivity pattern. In contrast, in the warmer summer months, the oryx displayed a bimodal inactivity pattern, with major inactivity bouts (those greater than 1 h) occurring equally during both the coolest part of the night (predawn hours) and the warmest part of the day (afternoon hours). Of note, the timing of the daily rhythm of body temperature did not vary seasonally, although the amplitude did change, leading to a seasonal alteration in the phase relationship between inactivity and the body temperature rhythm. Because during periods of inactivity the oryx were presumably asleep for much of the time, we speculate that the daytime shift in inactivity may allow the oryx to take advantage of the thermoregulatory physiology of sleep, which likely occurs when the animal is inactive for more than 1 h, to mitigate environmentally induced increases in body temperature. © 2016 The Author(s).

Characterizing the effect of summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches in the Kanto area of Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Ueda, Kayo; Ono, Masaji; Nitta, Hiroshi; Takami, Akinori

2014-07-01

Despite rising concern on the impact of heat on human health, the risk of high summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency dispatches is not well understood in Japan. A time-series study was conducted to examine the association between apparent temperature and daily heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches (HSAD) within the Kanto area of Japan. A total of 12,907 HSAD occurring from 2000 to 2009 in five major cities—Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama—were analyzed. Generalized additive models and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of daily maximum three-hour apparent temperature (AT) on dispatch frequency from May to September, with adjustment for seasonality, long-term trend, weekends, and public holidays. Linear and non-linear exposure effects were considered. Effects on days when AT first exceeded its summer median were also investigated. City-specific estimates were combined using random effects meta-analyses. Exposure-response relationship was found to be fairly linear. Significant risk increase began from 21 °C with a combined relative risk (RR) of 1.22 (95 % confidence interval, 1.03-1.44), increasing to 1.49 (1.42-1.57) at peak AT. When linear exposure was assumed, combined RR was 1.43 (1.37-1.50) per degree Celsius increment. Overall association was significant the first few times when median AT was initially exceeded in a particular warm season. More than two-thirds of these initial hot days were in June, implying the harmful effect of initial warming as the season changed. Risk increase that began early at the fairly mild perceived temperature implies the need for early precaution.

Characterizing the effect of summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency ambulance dispatches in the Kanto area of Japan.

PubMed

Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Ueda, Kayo; Ono, Masaji; Nitta, Hiroshi; Takami, Akinori

2014-07-01

Despite rising concern on the impact of heat on human health, the risk of high summer temperature on heatstroke-related emergency dispatches is not well understood in Japan. A time-series study was conducted to examine the association between apparent temperature and daily heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches (HSAD) within the Kanto area of Japan. A total of 12,907 HSAD occurring from 2000 to 2009 in five major cities-Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama-were analyzed. Generalized additive models and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of daily maximum three-hour apparent temperature (AT) on dispatch frequency from May to September, with adjustment for seasonality, long-term trend, weekends, and public holidays. Linear and non-linear exposure effects were considered. Effects on days when AT first exceeded its summer median were also investigated. City-specific estimates were combined using random effects meta-analyses. Exposure-response relationship was found to be fairly linear. Significant risk increase began from 21 °C with a combined relative risk (RR) of 1.22 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.44), increasing to 1.49 (1.42-1.57) at peak AT. When linear exposure was assumed, combined RR was 1.43 (1.37-1.50) per degree Celsius increment. Overall association was significant the first few times when median AT was initially exceeded in a particular warm season. More than two-thirds of these initial hot days were in June, implying the harmful effect of initial warming as the season changed. Risk increase that began early at the fairly mild perceived temperature implies the need for early precaution.

Contrasting shrub species respond to early summer temperatures leading to correspondence of shrub growth patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weijers, Stef; Pape, Roland; Löffler, Jörg; Myers-Smith, Isla H.

2018-03-01

The Arctic-alpine biome is warming rapidly, resulting in a gradual replacement of low statured species by taller woody species in many tundra ecosystems. In northwest North America, the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggests an increase in productivity of the Arctic and alpine tundra and a decrease in productivity of boreal forests. However, the responses of contrasting shrub species growing at the same sites to climate drivers remain largely unexplored. Here, we test growth, climate, and NDVI relationships of two contrasting species: the expanding tall deciduous shrub Salix pulchra and the circumarctic evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona from an alpine tundra site in the Pika valley in the Kluane Region, southwest Yukon Territories, Canada. We found that annual growth variability of both species at this site is strongly driven by early summer temperatures, despite their contrasting traits and habitats. Shrub growth chronologies for both species were correlated with the regional climate signal and showed spatial correspondence with interannual variation in NDVI in surrounding alpine and Arctic regions. Our results suggest that early summer warming represents a common driver of vegetation change for contrasting shrub species growing in different habitats in the same alpine environments.

Observations of the summer Red Sea circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, Sarantis S.; Johns, William E.

2007-06-01

Aiming at exploring and understanding the summer circulation in the Red Sea, a cruise was conducted in the basin during the summer of 2001 involving hydrographic, meteorological, and direct current observations. The most prominent feature, characteristic of the summer circulation and exchange with the Indian Ocean, is a temperature, salinity, and oxygen minimum located around a depth of 75 m at the southern end of the basin, associated with Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water inflowing from the Gulf of Aden during the summer season as an intruding subsurface layer. Stirring and mixing with ambient waters lead to marked increases in temperature (from 16.5 to almost 33°C) and salinity (from 35.7 to more than 38 psu) in this layer by the time it reaches midbasin. The observed circulation presents a very vigorous pattern with strong variability and intense features that extend the width of the basin. A permanent cyclone, detected in the northern Red Sea, verifies previous observations and modeling studies, while in the central sector of the basin a series of very strong anticyclones were observed with maximum velocities exceeding 1 m/s. The three-layer flow pattern, representative of the summer exchange between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is observed in the strait of Bab el Mandeb. In the southern part of the basin the layer flow is characterized by strong banking of the inflows and outflows against the coasts. Both surface and intermediate water masses involved in the summer Red Sea circulation present prominent spatial variability in their characteristics, indicating that the eddy field and mixing processes play an important role in the summer Red Sea circulation.

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Zonal Oscillation of Western Pacific Subtropical High in Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, W.; Ren, X.; Hu, H.

2017-12-01

The zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) influences the weather and climate over East Asia significantly. This study investigates the features and mechanisms of the zonal oscillation of the WPSH during summer on subseasonal time scales. The zonal oscillation index of the WPSH is defined by normalized subseasonal geopotential height anomaly at 500hPa averaged over the WPSH's western edge (110° - 140°E, 10° - 30°N). The index shows a predominant oscillation with a period of 10-40 days. Large positive index indicates a strong anticyclonic anomaly over East Asia and its coastal region south of 30°N at both 850hPa and 500hPa. The WPSH stretches more westward accompanied by warmer SST anomalies beneath the western edge of the WPSH. Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is seen over the Yangtze-Huaihe river basin and below-normal precipitation over the south of the Yangtze River. Negative index suggests a more eastward position of WPSH. The anomalies in circulation and SST for negative index are almost the mirror image of those for the positive index. In early summer, the zonal shift of the WPSH is affected by both the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern and the Silk road pattern (SRP). The positive (negative) phase of the EAP pattern is characterized by a low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific, indicating the western extension (eastward retreat) of the WPSH. Comparing with the EAP pattern, the SRP forms an upper-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in mid-latitudes of East Asia, and then leads to the westward (eastward) movement of the WPSH. In late summer, the zonal shift of the WPSH is mainly affected by the EAP pattern, because the EAP pattern in late summer is stronger than that in early summer. The zonal shift of the WPSH is also influenced by the subseasonal air-sea interaction locally. During the early stage of WPSH's westward stretch, the local SST anomaly in late summer is

Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Northwest U.S. and later Spring-Summer Droughts/Floods over Southern Plains and Adjacent Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Diallo, I.; Li, W.; Neelin, J. D.; Chu, P. C.; Vasic, R.; Zhu, Y.; LI, Q.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recurrent droughts/floods are high-impact meteorological events. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST). However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to fully explain the extreme climate events. Remote effects of large-scale spring land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) variability in Northwest U.S. over the Rocky Mountain area on later spring-summer droughts/floods over the Southern Plains and adjacent areas, however, have been largely ignored. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over Northwest U.S. is closely associated with summer precipitation anomalies in Southern Plains: negative/positive spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the Southern Plains. The global and regional weather forecast models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship. The modeling study suggests that the observed LST and SUBT anomalies produced about 29% and 31% of observed May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 precipitation deficit, respectively. The analyses discovered that the LST/SUBT's downstream effects are associated with a large-scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. For comparison, the SST effect was also tested and produced about 31% and 45% of the May 2015 heavy precipitation and June 2011 drought conditions, respectively. This study suggests that consideration of both SST and LST/SUBT anomalies are able to explain a substantial amount of variance in precipitation at sub-seasonal scale and inclusion of the LST/SUBT effect is essential to make reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal North American drought/flood predictions.

Beyond peak summer temperatures, branching corals in the Gulf of Aqaba are resilient to thermal stress but sensitive to high light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellworthy, Jessica; Fine, Maoz

2017-12-01

Despite rapidly rising sea surface temperatures and recurrent positive temperature anomalies, corals in the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) rarely experience thermal bleaching. Elsewhere, mass coral bleaching has been observed in corals when the water temperature exceeds 1-2 °C above the local maximum monthly mean (MMM). This threshold value or "bleaching rule" has been used to create predictive models of bleaching from satellite sea surface temperature observations, namely the "degree heating week" index. This study aimed to characterize the physiological changes of dominant reef building corals from the GoA in response to a temperature and light stress gradient. Coral collection and experiments began after a period of 14 consecutive days above MMM in the field. Stylophora pistillata showed negligible changes in symbiont and host physiology parameters after accumulating up to 9.4 degree heating weeks during peak summer temperatures, for which the index predicts widespread bleaching and some mortality. This result demonstrates acute thermal tolerance in S. pistillata from the GoA and deviation from the bleaching rule. In a second experiment after 4 weeks at 4 °C above peak summer temperatures, S. pistillata and Acropora eurystoma in the high-light treatment visibly paled and suffered greater midday and afternoon photoinhibition compared to corals under low-light conditions (35% of high-light treatment). However, light, not temperature (alone or in synergy with light), was the dominant factor in causing paling and the effective quantum yield of corals at 4 °C above ambient was indistinguishable from those in the ambient control. This result highlights the exceptional, atypical thermal tolerance of dominant GoA branching corals. Concomitantly, it validates the efficacy of protecting GoA reefs from local stressors if they are to serve as a coral refuge in the face of global sea temperature rise.

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

2018-04-01

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature in coastal regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyurgerov, M.; McCabe, G.J.

2006-01-01

Low-elevation glaciers in coastal regions of Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, individual ice caps around the Greenland ice sheet, and the Patagonia Ice Fields have an aggregate glacier area of about 332 ?? 103 km 2 and account for approximately 42% of all the glacier area outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. They have shown volume loss, especially since the end of the 1980s, increasing from about 45% in the 1960s to nearly 67% in 2003 of the total wastage from all glaciers on Earth outside those two largest ice sheets. Thus, a disproportionally large contribution of coastal glacier ablation to sea level rise is evident. We examine cumulative standardized departures (1961-2000 reference period) of glacier mass balances and air temperature data in these four coastal regions. Analyses indicate a strong association between increases in glacier volume losses and summer air temperature at regional and global scales. Increases in glacier volume losses in the coastal regions also coincide with an accelerated rate of ice discharge from outlet glaciers draining the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. These processes imply further increases in sea level rise. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.

46 CFR 54.05-6 - Toughness test temperatures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Toughness test temperatures. 54.05-6 Section 54.05-6... Toughness Tests § 54.05-6 Toughness test temperatures. Each toughness test must be conducted at temperatures not warmer than −20 °F or 10 °F below the minimum service temperature, whichever is lower, except that...

46 CFR 54.05-6 - Toughness test temperatures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Toughness test temperatures. 54.05-6 Section 54.05-6... Toughness Tests § 54.05-6 Toughness test temperatures. Each toughness test must be conducted at temperatures not warmer than −20 °F or 10 °F below the minimum service temperature, whichever is lower, except that...

46 CFR 54.05-6 - Toughness test temperatures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Toughness test temperatures. 54.05-6 Section 54.05-6... Toughness Tests § 54.05-6 Toughness test temperatures. Each toughness test must be conducted at temperatures not warmer than −20 °F or 10 °F below the minimum service temperature, whichever is lower, except that...

46 CFR 54.05-6 - Toughness test temperatures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Toughness test temperatures. 54.05-6 Section 54.05-6... Toughness Tests § 54.05-6 Toughness test temperatures. Each toughness test must be conducted at temperatures not warmer than −20 °F or 10 °F below the minimum service temperature, whichever is lower, except that...

Ticks and the Mammalian Meat Allergy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Warmer temperatures and longer days signal the start to spring and summer chores on most cattle ranches. While the time spent outdoors is refreshing after the winter months, it brings with it an increased risk for not only heat exhaustion and dehydration but also for exposure to disease-transmitting...

Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation

Treesearch

Anne Jefferson; Anne Nolin; Sarah Lewis; Christina Tague

2008-01-01

Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north-west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies....

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study.

PubMed

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-09-13

Photosynthetic O 2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O 2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O 2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O 2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q 10  = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O 2 production in a warmer ocean.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Photosynthetic oxygen production in a warmer ocean: the Sargasso Sea as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Katherine; Bendtsen, Jørgen

2017-08-01

Photosynthetic O2 production can be an important source of oxygen in sub-surface ocean waters especially in permanently stratified oligotrophic regions of the ocean where O2 produced in deep chlorophyll maxima (DCM) is not likely to be outgassed. Today, permanently stratified regions extend across approximately 40% of the global ocean and their extent is expected to increase in a warmer ocean. Thus, predicting future ocean oxygen conditions requires a better understanding of the potential response of photosynthetic oxygen production to a warmer ocean. Based on our own and published observations of water column processes in oligotrophic regions, we develop a one-dimensional water column model describing photosynthetic oxygen production in the Sargasso Sea to quantify the importance of photosynthesis for the downward flux of O2 and examine how it may be influenced in a warmer ocean. Photosynthesis is driven in the model by vertical mixing of nutrients (including eddy-induced mixing) and diazotrophy and is found to substantially increase the downward O2 flux relative to physical-chemical processes alone. Warming (2°C) surface waters does not significantly change oxygen production at the DCM. Nor does a 15% increase in re-mineralization rate (assuming Q10 = 2; 2°C warming) have significant effect on net sub-surface oxygen accumulation. However, changes in the relative production of particulate (POM) and dissolved organic material (DOM) generate relatively large changes in net sub-surface oxygen production. As POM/DOM production is a function of plankton community composition, this implies plankton biodiversity and food web structure may be important factors influencing O2 production in a warmer ocean. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

The role of the winter residual circulation in the summer mesopause regions in WACCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanne Kuilman, Maartje; Karlsson, Bodil

2018-03-01

High winter planetary wave activity warms the summer polar mesopause via a link between the two hemispheres. Complex wave-mean-flow interactions take place on a global scale, involving sharpening and weakening of the summer zonal flow. Changes in the wind shear occasionally generate flow instabilities. Additionally, an altering zonal wind modifies the breaking of vertically propagating gravity waves. A crucial component for changes in the summer zonal flow is the equatorial temperature, as it modifies latitudinal gradients. Since several mechanisms drive variability in the summer zonal flow, it can be hard to distinguish which one is dominant. In the mechanism coined interhemispheric coupling, the mesospheric zonal flow is suggested to be a key player for how the summer polar mesosphere responds to planetary wave activity in the winter hemisphere. We here use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to investigate the role of the summer stratosphere in shaping the conditions of the summer polar mesosphere. Using composite analyses, we show that in the absence of an anomalous summer mesospheric temperature gradient between the equator and the polar region, weak planetary wave forcing in the winter would lead to a warming of the summer mesosphere region instead of a cooling, and vice versa. This is opposing the temperature signal of the interhemispheric coupling that takes place in the mesosphere, in which a cold and calm winter stratosphere goes together with a cold summer mesopause. We hereby strengthen the evidence that the variability in the summer mesopause region is mainly driven by changes in the summer mesosphere rather than in the summer stratosphere.

Atmospheric and surface temperatures and airborne dust amounts during late southern summer from Mariner 9 IRIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santee, M.; Crisp, D.

1992-01-01

The temperature structure and dust loading of the Martian atmosphere are investigated using thermal emission spectra recorded in 1972 by the Mariner 9 infrared interferometer spectrometer (IRIS). The analysis focuses on a subset of data consisting of approximately 2400 spectra obtained near the end of the southern summer season (L(sub s) equal to 343 deg to 348 deg), after the global dust storm had largely abated and airborne dust amounts were subsiding to background values. Simultaneous retrieval of the vertical distribution of both atmospheric temperature and dust optical depth is accomplished through an iterative procedure which is performed on each individual spectrum. The atmospheric transmittances are calculated using a Voigt quasi-random band model, which includes absorption by CO2 and dust, but neglects the effects of multiple scattering. Vertical profiles of temperature and dust optical depth are obtained using modified algorithms. These profiles are used to construct global maps of temperature and dust optical depth as functions of latitude (+/- 90 deg), altitude (approximately 0-50 km), and local time of day.

Climate vulnerability of native cold-water salmonids in the Northern Rockies Region [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Scott Spaulding; Cameron A. Thomas; Scott A. Barndt; Matthew C. Groce; Dona Horan; David E. Nagel

2018-01-01

During the 21st century, climate change is expected to alter aquatic habitats throughout the Northern Rocky Mountains, intermountain basins, and western Great Plains. Particularly in montane watersheds, direct changes are likely to include warmer water temperatures, earlier snowmelt-driven runoff, earlier declines to summer baseflow, downhill movement of perennial...

Limited Capacity for Faster Digestion in Larval Coral Reef Fish at an Elevated Temperature.

PubMed

McLeod, Ian M; Clark, Timothy D

2016-01-01

. 0.53±0.07 J at 31.5°C), SDA duration (6.0±0.6 h vs. 6.5±0.5 h), or the percent of total meal energy used for SDA (SDA coefficient: 10.1±1.3% vs. 13.0±1.7%). Our findings of higher Mo2 routine but similar SDA coefficient at high temperature provide the first empirical evidence that coral reef fish larvae may have to secure more food to attain similar growth rates during warm summer periods, and perhaps with chronically warmer conditions associated with climate change.

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, P.

2018-04-01

In this study two complementary approaches have been combined to estimate the reliability of the data-driven seasonal predictability of the meteorological summer mean temperature (T_{JJA}) over Europe. The developed model is based on linear regressions and uses early season predictors to estimate the target value T_{JJA}. We found for the Potsdam (Germany) climate station that the monthly standard deviations (σ) from January to April and the temperature mean ( m) in April are good predictors to describe T_{JJA} after 1990. However, before 1990 the model failed. The core region where this model works is the north-eastern part of Central Europe. We also analyzed long-term trends of monthly Hess/Brezowsky weather types as possible causes of the dynamical changes. In spring, a significant increase of the occurrences for two opposite weather patterns was found: Zonal Ridge across Central Europe (BM) and Trough over Central Europe (TRM). Both currently make up about 30% of the total alternating weather systems over Europe. Other weather types are predominantly decreasing or their trends are not significant. Thus, the predictability may be attributed to these two weather types where the difference between the two Z500 composite patterns is large. This also applies to the north-eastern part of Central Europe. Finally, the detected enhanced seasonal predictability over Europe is alarming, because severe side effects may occur. One of these are more frequent climate extremes in summer half-year.

2014 and 2015 anomalies in temperature and the epipelagic fish community in the eastern Gulf of Alaska and implications for juvenile fish.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhea-Fournier, W.

2016-02-01

Summer eastern Gulf of Alaska fisheries oceanography surveys of the epipelagic in 2014 and 2015 indicated elevated near surface temperatures, changes in the fish community, and variability in prey quality. The Alaska Fisheries Science Center deployed CTDs to observe temperature profiles, surface trawls to collect fish, and plankton nets to collect zooplankton from 2010 to 2015 along the coast and offshore of Baranof and Chichagof Island . Average near surface temperature for 2014 and 2015 were significantly higher than previous years with an increase of over 3.5 degrees relative to 2012. Young of the year groundfish that occupy the epipelagic in the summer prior to pelagic and demersal migration experienced changes in relative abundance that included a decrease in pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder and an increase in sablefish. The warmer temperatures allowed Elasmobranchs from tropical regions to migrate north including blue sharks and Thresher sharks which represented a northern range extension. Other anomalous fish catches in the nearshore in 2014 and 2015 included multiple ocean sunfish, Mola mola, and the abundance of Pacific pomfret, a piscivorous species usually found in offshore waters. Zooplankton collections analyzed for caloric content and lipid allocation indicated interannual variability with an increase of condition in 2014 and a significant decrease in 2015. While the elevated temperatures of 2014 and 2015 may have provided suitable habitat and range extensions for lower latitude and offshore species, the combination of accelerated metabolism due to higher thermal experience, depleted energetic input from prey, and increase in predators has the potential to decrease survival of juvenile fish in the epipelagic.

Growing season temperatures in Europe and climate forcings over the past 1400 years.

PubMed

Guiot, Joel; Corona, Christophe

2010-04-01

The lack of instrumental data before the mid-19th-century limits our understanding of present warming trends. In the absence of direct measurements, we used proxies that are natural or historical archives recording past climatic changes. A gridded reconstruction of spring-summer temperature was produced for Europe based on tree-rings, documentaries, pollen assemblages and ice cores. The majority of proxy series have an annual resolution. For a better inference of long-term climate variation, they were completed by low-resolution data (decadal or more), mostly on pollen and ice-core data. An original spectral analog method was devised to deal with this heterogeneous dataset, and to preserve long-term variations and the variability of temperature series. So we can replace the recent climate changes in a broader context of the past 1400 years. This preservation is possible because the method is not based on a calibration (regression) but on similarities between assemblages of proxies. The reconstruction of the April-September temperatures was validated with a Jack-knife technique. It was also compared to other spatially gridded temperature reconstructions, literature data, and glacier advance and retreat curves. We also attempted to relate the spatial distribution of European temperature anomalies to known solar and volcanic forcings. We found that our results were accurate back to 750. Cold periods prior to the 20(th) century can be explained partly by low solar activity and/or high volcanic activity. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) could be correlated to higher solar activity. During the 20(th) century, however only anthropogenic forcing can explain the exceptionally high temperature rise. Warm periods of the Middle Age were spatially more heterogeneous than last decades, and then locally it could have been warmer. However, at the continental scale, the last decades were clearly warmer than any period of the last 1400 years. The heterogeneity of MWP versus the

The effect of radiation screens on Nordic time series of mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordli, P. Ø.; Alexandersson, H.; Frich, P.; Førland, E. J.; Heino, R.; Jónsson, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Tveito, O. E.

1997-12-01

A short survey of the historical development of temperature radiation screens is given based upon research in the archives of the Nordic meteorological institutes. In the middle of the nineteenth century most thermometer stands were open shelters, free-standing or fastened to a window or wall. Most of these were soon replaced by wall or window screens, i.e. small wooden or metal cages. Large free-standing screens were also introduced in the nineteenth century, but it took to the 1980s before they had replaced the wall screens completely in all Nordic countries. During recent years, small cylindrical screens suitable for automatic weather stations have been introduced. At some stations they have replaced the ordinary free-standing screen as part of a gradual move towards automation.The first free-standing screens used in the Nordic countries were single louvred. They were later improved by double louvres. Compared with observations from ventilated thermometers the monthly mean temperatures in the single louvred screens were 0.2-0.4°C higher during May-August, whereas in the double louvred screens the temperatures were unbiased. Unless the series are adjusted, this improvement may lead to inhomogeneities in long climatic time series.The change from wall screen to free-standing screen also involved a relocation from the microclimatic influence of a house to a location free from obstacles. Tests to evaluate the effect of relocation by parallel measurements yielded variable results. However, the bulk of the tests showed no effect of the relocation in winter, whereas in summer the wall screen tended to be slightly warmer (0.0-0.3°C) than the double louvred screen. At two Norwegian sites situated on steep valley slopes, the wall screen was ca. 0.5°C colder in midwinter.The free-standing Swedish shelter, which was used at some stations up to 1960, seems to have been overheated in spring and summer (maximum overheating of about 0.4°C in early summer). The new screen for

Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, Marina

2014-05-01

In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

2018-03-01

Because of growing demand from agricultural planning, power management and activity scheduling, extended-range (5-30-day lead) forecasting of summer surface air temperature (SAT) and heat waves over China is carried out in the present study via spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Based on the training data during 1960-1999, the predictability sources are found to propagate from Europe, Northeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific, to influence the intraseasonal 10-80 day SAT over China. STPMs are therefore constructed using the projection domains, which are determined by these previous predictability sources. For the independent forecast period (2000-2013), the STPMs can reproduce EOF-filtered 30-80 day SAT at all lead times of 5-30 days over most part of China, and observed 30-80 and 10-80 day SAT at 25-30 days over eastern China. Significant pattern correlation coefficients account for more than 50% of total forecasts at all 5-30-day lead times against EOF-filtered and observed 30-80 day SAT, and at a 20-day lead time against observed 10-80 day SAT. The STPMs perform poorly in reproducing 10-30 day SAT. Forecasting for the first two modes of 10-30 day SAT only shows useful skill within a 15-day lead time. Forecasting for the third mode of 10-30 day SAT is useless after a 10-day lead time. The forecasted heat waves over China are determined by the reconstructed SAT which is the summation of the forecasted 10-80 day SAT and the lower frequency (longer than 80-day) climatological SAT. Over a large part of China, the STPMs can forecast more than 30% of heat waves within a 15-day lead time. In general, the STPMs demonstrate the promising skill for extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer SAT and heat waves.

Marine Climate Archives across the Medieval Climate Anomaly-Little Ice Age Transition from Viking and Medieval Age Shells, Orkney, Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surge, D. M.; Barrett, J. H.

2013-12-01

Proxy records reconstructing marine climatic conditions across the transition between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~900-1350 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1350-1850) are strongly biased towards decadal to annual resolution and summer/growing seasons. Here we present new archives of seasonal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) from shells of the European limpet, Patella vulgata, which accumulated in Viking and medieval shell and fish middens at Quoygrew on Westray, Orkney. SST was reconstructed at submonthly resolution using oxygen isotope ratios preserved in shells from the 12th and mid 15th centuries (MCA and LIA, respectively). MCA shells recorded warmer summers and colder winters by ~2 degrees C relative to the late 20th Century (1961-1990). Therefore, seasonality was higher during the MCA relative to the late 20th century. Without the benefit of seasonal resolution, SST averaged from shell time series would be weighted toward the fast-growing summer season, resulting in the conclusion that the early MCA was warmer than the late 20th century by ~1°C. This conclusion is broadly true for the summer season, but not true for the winter season. Higher seasonality and cooler winters during early medieval times may result from a weakened North Atlantic Oscillation index. In contrast, the LIA shells have a more a variable inter-annual pattern. Some years record cooler summers and winters relative to the MCA shells and late 20th century, whereas other years record warmer summers and cooler winters similar to the MCA shells. Our findings provide a new test for the accuracy of seasonal amplitudes resulting from paleoclimate model experiments.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Effect of temperature on rates of ammonium uptake and nitrification in the western coastal Arctic during winter, spring, and summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, Steven E.; Connelly, Tara L.; Sipler, Rachel E.; Yager, Patricia L.; Bronk, Deborah A.

2014-12-01

Biogeochemical rate processes in the Arctic are not currently well constrained, and there is very limited information on how rates may change as the region warms. Here we present data on the sensitivity of ammonium (NH4+) uptake and nitrification rates to short-term warming. Samples were collected from the Chukchi Sea off the coast of Barrow, Alaska, during winter, spring, and summer and incubated for 24 h in the dark with additions of 15NH4+ at -1.5, 6, 13, and 20°C. Rates of NH4+ uptake and nitrification were measured in conjunction with bacterial production. In all seasons, NH4+ uptake rates were highest at temperatures similar to current summertime conditions but dropped off with increased warming, indicative of psychrophilic (i.e., cold-loving) microbial communities. In contrast, nitrification rates were less sensitive to temperature and were higher in winter and spring compared to summer. These findings suggest that as the Arctic coastal ecosystem continues to warm, NH4+ assimilation may become increasingly important, relative to nitrification, although the magnitude of NH4+ assimilation would be still be lower than nitrification.

ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

2018-05-01

ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Development of summer diets for hybrid striped bass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature and ammonia increase dramatically during summer production of sunshine bass. Global temperatures are projected to increase. A factorial experiment investigated the effects of three digestible protein (DP; 33, 40, 47%), two lipid (L; 10, 18 %) and two ration levels (satiation, restricted)...

The influence of temperature stress on the physiology of the Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima.

PubMed

Hornstein, Jesse; Pales Espinosa, Emmanuelle; Cerrato, Robert M; Lwiza, Kamazima M M; Allam, Bassem

2018-04-22

Atlantic surfclam populations have significantly declined in state and federal waters from the south shore of Long Island, New York to the Delmarva Peninsula since the early 2000s. Previous studies have demonstrated that surfclams in this geographic range show signs of physiological stress, suggested to be a result of increasing ocean temperatures. In this study, we examined the effect of 2 temperature regimes (19 °C and 23 °C) on surfclam physiology. These temperatures were chosen because they represent maximal (23 °C) and minimal (19 °C) temperatures prevailing in New York clamming areas during summer. Results demonstrated enhanced energy metabolism and significant reductions in filtration rate, scope for growth, and immune functions in clams exposed to the warmer temperature treatment. Although net energy gains remained positive in both treatments under our experimental conditions, the findings suggest that temperature stress is involved in the recent observations of surfclams in poor condition. The impact of elevated temperatures on phytoplankton quantity/quality and other environmental variables in combination with the direct impact on surfclam filtration and metabolic rates could lead to a negative energy balance. While some uncertainties remain about population-scale impacts of overall warming trends, we fear that future increases in temperature may lead to the collapse of the Atlantic surfclam between New York and Virginia, especially within inshore regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regional signatures of plant response to drought and elevated temperature across a desert ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Munson, Seth M.; Muldavin, Esteban H.; Belnap, Jayne; Peters, Debra P.C.; Anderson, John P.; Reiser, M. Hildegard; Gallo, Kirsten; Melgoza-Castillo, Alicia; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Christiansen, Tim A.

2013-01-01

The performance of many desert plant species in North America may decline with the warmer and drier conditions predicted by climate change models, thereby accelerating land degradation and reducing ecosystem productivity. We paired repeat measurements of plant canopy cover with climate at multiple sites across the Chihuahuan Desert over the last century to determine which plant species and functional types may be the most sensitive to climate change. We found that the dominant perennial grass, Bouteloua eriopoda, and species richness had nonlinear responses to summer precipitation, decreasing more in dry summers than increasing with wet summers. Dominant shrub species responded differently to the seasonality of precipitation and drought, but winter precipitation best explained changes in the cover of woody vegetation in upland grasslands and may contribute to woody-plant encroachment that is widespread throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Temperature explained additional variability of changes in cover of dominant and subdominant plant species. Using a novel empirically based approach we identified ‘‘climate pivot points’’ that were indicative of shifts from increasing to decreasing plant cover over a range of climatic conditions. Reductions in cover of annual and several perennial plant species, in addition to declines in species richness below the long-term summer precipitation mean across plant communities, indicate a decrease in the productivity for all but the most drought-tolerant perennial grasses and shrubs in the Chihuahuan Desert. Overall, our regional synthesis of long-term data provides a robust foundation for forecasting future shifts in the composition and structure of plant assemblages in the largest North American warm desert.

Physical activity levels of older community-dwelling adults are influenced by summer weather variables.

PubMed

Brandon, Caitlin A; Gill, Dawn P; Speechley, Mark; Gilliland, Jason; Jones, Gareth R

2009-04-01

Adequate daily physical activity (PA) is important for maintaining functional capacity and independence in older adults. However, most older adults in Canada do not engage in enough PA to sustain fitness and functional independence. Environmental influences, such as warmer daytime temperatures, may influence PA participation; however, few studies have examined the effect of summertime temperatures on PA levels in older adults. This investigation measured the influence of summertime weather variables on PA in 48 community-dwelling older adults who were randomly recruited from a local seniors' community centre. Each participant wore an accelerometer for a single 7-consecutive-day period (between 30 May and 9 August 2006) during waking hours, and completed a PA logbook to remark on major daily PA events. Local weather variables were collected from a national weather service and compared with PA counts per minute. Regression analysis revealed a curvilinear relationship between log-transformed PA and mean daily temperature (r2 = 0.025; p < 0.05). Linear mixed effects models that accounted for repeated measures nested within individuals were performed for monthly periods, meteorological variables, sex, age, and estimated maximal oxygen consumption, with PA as the dependent variable. Age and Air Quality Index remained significant variables within the model. Higher fitness levels had no effect on allowing individuals to perform more vigorous PA in warmer temperatures.

Effect of temperature on the phenology of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera, Crambidae); simulation and visualization of the potential future distribution of C. partellus in Africa under warmer temperatures through the development of life-table parameters.

PubMed

Khadioli, N; Tonnang, Z E H; Muchugu, E; Ong'amo, G; Achia, T; Kipchirchir, I; Kroschel, J; Le Ru, B

2014-12-01

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 °C), relative humidity of 75±5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 °C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 °C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these

Investigations of the middle atmospheric thermal structure and oscillations over sub-tropical regions in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Som; Kumar, Prashant; Jethva, Chintan; Vaishnav, Rajesh; Bencherif, Hassan

2017-06-01

The temperature retrieved from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) onboard Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite during January 2002 to September 2015 are used in this study to delineate the differences of middle atmospheric thermal structure in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Two stations namely Mt. Abu (24.59°N, 72.70°E) in NH and Reunion Island (21.11°S, 55.53°E) in SH are chosen over sub-tropical regions. Temperature climatology from SABER observations suggests that stratopause is warmer, and upper mesosphere is cooler in NH as compared to SH. Three atmospheric models are used to understand the monthly thermal structure differences for different altitudes. Moreover, semi-annual, annual and quasi-biennial oscillations are studied using Lomb Scargle Periodogram and Wavelet transform techniques. Over NH, summer and winter season are warmer ( 4 K) and cooler ( 3 K) respectively in stratosphere as compared to SH. It is important to note here that Mt. Abu temperature is warmer ( 9 K) than Reunion Island in winter but in summer season Mt. Abu temperature is cooler in upper mesosphere and above mesosphere NH shows warming. Results show that annual oscillations are dominated in both hemisphere as compared to semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations. In upper mesosphere, strength of annual oscillations is substantial in NH, while semi-annual oscillations are stronger in SH. Wavelet analyses found that annual oscillations are significant in NH near mesopause, while semi-annual oscillations are strengthening in SH.

Seasonal radiative modeling of Titan's stratospheric temperatures at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bézard, Bruno; Vinatier, Sandrine; Achterberg, Richard K.

2018-03-01

We have developed a seasonal radiative-dynamical model of Titan's stratosphere to investigate the temporal variation of temperatures in the 0.2-4 mbar range observed by the Cassini/CIRS spectrometer. The model incorporates gas and aerosol vertical profiles derived from Cassini/CIRS and Huygens/DISR data to calculate the radiative heating and cooling rate profiles as a function of time and latitude. At 20°S in 2007, the heating rate is larger than the cooling rate at all altitudes, and more specifically by 20-35% in the 0.1-5 mbar range. A new calculation of the radiative relaxation time as a function of pressure level is presented, leading to time constants significantly lower than previous estimates. At 6°N around spring equinox, the radiative equilibrium profile is warmer than the observed one at all levels. Adding adiabatic cooling in the energy equation, with a vertical upward velocity profile approximately constant in pressure coordinates below the 0.02-mbar level (corresponding to 0.03-0.05 cm s-1 at 1 mbar), allows us to reproduce the observed profile quite well. The velocity profile above the ∼0.5-mbar level is however affected by uncertainties in the haze density profile. The model shows that the change in insolation due to Saturn's orbital eccentricity is large enough to explain the observed 4-K decrease in equatorial temperatures around 1 mbar between 2009 and 2016. At 30°N and S, the radiative model predicts seasonal variations of temperature much larger than observed. A seasonal modulation of adiabatic cooling/heating is needed to reproduce the temperature variations observed from 2005 to 2016 between 0.2 and 4 mbar. At 1 mbar, the derived vertical velocities vary in the range -0.05 (winter solstice) to 0.16 (summer solstice) cm s-1 at 30°S, -0.01 (winter solstice) to 0.14 (summer solstice) cm s-1 at 30°N, and 0.03-0.07 cm s-1 at the equator.

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

2018-05-01

This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

How mothers keep their babies warm.

PubMed Central

Bacon, C J; Bell, S A; Clulow, E E; Beattie, A B

1991-01-01

Details of room temperature, clothing, and bedding used by night and by day and in winter and in summer were recorded for 649 babies aged 8 to 26 weeks. Room temperature at night was significantly related to outside temperature and duration of heating. Total insulation was significantly related to outside temperature and to minimum room temperature, but there was wide variation in insulation at the same room temperature. High levels of insulation for a given room temperature were found particularly at night and in winter, and were associated with the use of thick or doubled duvets and with swaddling. At least half the babies threw off some or all of their bedding at night, and at least a quarter sweated. Younger mothers and mothers in the lower social groups put more bedclothes over their babies, and the latter also kept their rooms warmer. Many mothers kept their babies warmer during infections. PMID:2039255

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

2009-12-01

One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

46 CFR 54.05-6 - Toughness test temperatures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Toughness test temperatures. 54.05-6 Section 54.05-6 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) MARINE ENGINEERING PRESSURE VESSELS Toughness Tests § 54.05-6 Toughness test temperatures. Each toughness test must be conducted at temperatures not warmer than −20 °F or 10 °F below the...

Metabolic and cardiorespiratory responses of summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus to hypoxia at two temperatures.

PubMed

Capossela, K M; Brill, R W; Fabrizio, M C; Bushnell, P G

2012-08-01

To quantify the tolerance of summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus to episodic hypoxia, resting metabolic rate, oxygen extraction, gill ventilation and heart rate were measured during acute progressive hypoxia at the fish's acclimation temperature (22° C) and after an acute temperature increase (to 30° C). Mean ±s.e. critical oxygen levels (i.e. the oxygen levels below which fish could not maintain aerobic metabolism) increased significantly from 27 ± 2% saturation (2·0 ± 0·1 mg O(2) l(-1)) at 22° C to 39 ± 2% saturation (2·4 ± 0·1 mg O(2) l(-1)) at 30° C. Gill ventilation and oxygen extraction changed immediately with the onset of hypoxia at both temperatures. The fractional increase in gill ventilation (from normoxia to the lowest oxygen level tested) was much larger at 22° C (6·4-fold) than at 30° C (2·7-fold). In contrast, the fractional decrease in oxygen extraction (from normoxia to the lowest oxygen levels tested) was similar at 22° C (1·7-fold) and 30° C (1·5-fold), and clearly smaller than the fractional changes in gill ventilation. In contrast to the almost immediate effects of hypoxia on respiration, bradycardia was not observed until 20 and 30% oxygen saturation at 22 and 30° C, respectively. Bradycardia was, therefore, not observed until below critical oxygen levels. The critical oxygen levels at both temperatures were near or immediately below the accepted 2·3 mg O(2) l(-1) hypoxia threshold for survival, but the increase in the critical oxygen level at 30° C suggests a lower tolerance to hypoxia after an acute increase in temperature. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Temperature sensitivity of organic-matter decay in tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Langley, J.A.

2014-01-01

Approximately half of marine carbon sequestration takes place in coastal wetlands, including tidal marshes, where organic matter contributes to soil elevation and ecosystem persistence in the face of sea-level rise. The long-term viability of marshes and their carbon pools depends, in part, on how the balance between productivity and decay responds to climate change. Here, we report the sensitivity of labile soil organic-matter decay in tidal marshes to seasonal and latitudinal variations in temperature measured over a 3-year period. We find a moderate increase in decay rate at warmer temperatures (3-6% per °C, Q10 = 1.3-1.5). Despite the profound differences between microbial metabolism in wetlands and uplands, our results indicate a strong conservation of temperature sensitivity. Moreover, simple comparisons with organic-matter production suggest that elevated atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures will accelerate carbon accumulation in marsh soils, and potentially enhance their ability to survive sea-level rise.

Recent 121-year variability of western boundary upwelling in the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Peng, Zicheng; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Zhou, Renjun; Song, Shaohua; Shi, Zhengguo; Chen, Tegu; Wei, Gangjian; Delong, Kristine L.

2013-06-01

upwelling is typically related to the eastern boundary upwelling system, whereas the powerful southwest Asian summer monsoon can also generate significant cold, nutrient-rich deep water in western coastal zones. Here we present a sea surface temperature record (A.D. 1876-1996) derived from coral Porites Sr/Ca for an upwelling zone in the northern South China Sea. The upwelling-induced sea surface temperature anomaly record reveals prominent multidecadal variability driven by Asian summer monsoon dynamics with an abrupt transition from warmer to colder conditions in 1930, and a return to warmer conditions after 1960. Previous studies suggest the expected increase in atmospheric CO2 for the coming decades may result in intensification in the eastern boundary upwelling system, which could enhance upwelling of CO2-rich deep water thus exacerbating the impact of acidification in these productive zones. In contrast, the weakening trend since 1961 in the upwelling time series from the northern South China Sea suggests moderate regional ocean acidification from upwelling thus a stress relief for marine life in this region.

Near Surface Thermal Stratification during Summer at Summit, Greenland, and its Impact on MODIS-derived Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Hall, D. K.

2017-12-01

As rapid warming of the Arctic occurs, it is imperative that we monitor climate parameters such as temperature over large areas to understand and predict the extent of climate changes. Temperatures are often tracked using in-situ 2 m air temperatures, but in remote locations such as on the Greenland Ice Sheet, temperature can be studied more comprehensively using remote sensing techniques. Because of the presence of surface-based temperature inversions in ice-covered areas, differences between 2 m air temperature and skin temperature can be significant and are particularly relevant when considering validation and application of remote sensing temperature data. We present results from a field campaign at Summit Station in Greenland to study surface temperature using the following measurements: skin temperature measured by IR sensors, thermochrons, and thermocouples; 2 m air temperature measured by a NOAA meteorological station; and two different MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface temperature products. We confirm prior findings that in-situ 2 m air temperature is often significantly higher in the summer than in-situ skin temperature when incoming solar radiation and wind speed are low. This inversion may account for biases in previous MODIS surface temperature studies that used 2 m air temperature for validation. As compared to the in-situ IR skin temperature measurements, the MOD/MYD11 Collection 6 surface-temperature standard product has an RMSE of 1.0°C, and that the MOD29 Collection 6 product has an RMSE of 1.5°C, spanning a range of temperatures from -35°C to -5°C. For our study area and time series, MODIS surface temperature products agree with skin temperatures better than many previous studies have indicated, especially at temperatures below -20°C where other studies found a significant cold bias. Further investigation at temperatures below -35°C is warranted to determine if this bias does indeed exist.

Holocene temperature variability revealed by brGDGTs in subtropical southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Zhao, C.

2017-12-01

Subtropical areas are important source region of moisture and heat in global climate system. Paleoclimate reconstructions from these regions, especially quantitative records, would not only help to better understand the nature of climate system through time, but also provide important constraining dataset for long-term ecosystem variations in these ecological important areas. To date, quantitative climate records with reliable chronological controls are still limited from terrestrial archives in subtropical areas. Here we present a 50-year-resolution quantitative temperature record throughout the Holocene based on branched GDGTs at a small alpine lake, Tiancai Lake (26°38'E, 99°43'N, 3898 m.a.s.l) in southwestern China. The record is based on a temporal calibration between instrumental mean annual air temperature (MAAT) and brGDGT compounds (GDGT-IIIa, GDGT-IIa', GDGT-IIb, GDGT-Ia and GDGT-Ic). The MAAT was relatively low -0.6 ° between 11 and 7.5 ka, then abruptly increased 1 ° to 4 °until 7 ka. The MAAT was relatively warm 2° between 7 and 1 ka, then decreased to 1° over the last 1 ka. The Middle to Late Holocene was 3 ° warmer than the Early Holocene. The MAAT variation at Lake Tiancai is supported by changes in evergreen oaks and Tsuga from the same sediment core, suggesting that the growth of cold-tolerant forest in place of subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest has been driven by the decrease in MAAT. The early Holocene cold interval revealed by our record and pollen data is different with the chironomid-based summer temperature reconstruction from the same lake, the latter has been driven by summer insolation. This difference suggests that a pronounced winter contribution to the mean annual temperature during the early Holocene, which was probably caused by a low winter insolation, and strengthened by a sparse vegetation cover and influences of winter ice/snow cover in tropical high latitude regions.

Summer to Winter Diurnal Variabilities of Temperature and Water Vapour in the Lowermost Troposphere as Observed by HAMSTRAD over Dome C, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricaud, P.; Genthon, C.; Durand, P.; Attié, J.-L.; Carminati, F.; Canut, G.; Vanacker, J.-F.; Moggio, L.; Courcoux, Y.; Pellegrini, A.; Rose, T.

2012-04-01

The HAMSTRAD (H2O Antarctica Microwave Stratospheric and Tropospheric Radiometers) microwave radiometer operating at 60 GHz (oxygen line, thus temperature) and 183 GHz (water vapour line) has been permanently deployed at the Dome C station, Concordia, Antarctica [75°06'S, 123°21'E, 3,233 m above mean sea level] in January 2010 to study long-term trends in tropospheric absolute humidity and temperature. The great sensitivity of the instrument in the lowermost troposphere helped to characterize the diurnal cycle of temperature and H2O from the austral summer (January 2010) to the winter (June 2010) seasons from heights of 10 to 200 m in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The study has characterized the vertical resolution of the HAMSTRAD measurements: 10-20 m for temperature and 25-50 m for H2O. A strong diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O (although noisier) has been measured in summertime at 10 m, decreasing in amplitude with height, and phase-shifted by about 4 h above 50 m with a strong H2O-temperature correlation (>0.8) throughout the entire PBL. In autumn, whilst the diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O is less intense, a 12-h phase shift is observed above 30 m. In wintertime, a weak diurnal signal measured between 10 to 200 m is attributed to the methodology employed, which consists of monthly averaged data, and that combines air masses from different origins (sampling effect) and not to the imprint of the null solar irradiation. In situ sensors scanning the entire 24-h period, radiosondes launched at 2000 local solar time (LST) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 LST agree very well with the HAMSTRAD diurnal cycles for temperature and relatively well for absolute humidity. For temperature, HAMSTRAD tends to be consistent with all the other datasets but shows a smoother vertical profile from 10 to 100 m compared to radiosondes and in-situ data, with ECMWF profiles even smoother than HAMSTRAD

Growth tradeoffs associated with thermotolerant symbionts in the coral Pocillopora damicornis are lost in warmer oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunning, R.; Gillette, P.; Capo, T.; Galvez, K.; Baker, A. C.

2015-03-01

The growth and survival of reef corals are influenced by their symbiotic algal partners ( Symbiodinium spp.), which may be flexible in space and time. Tradeoffs among partnerships exist such that corals with thermotolerant symbionts (e.g., clade D) resist bleaching but grow more slowly, making the long-term ecosystem-level impacts of different host-symbiont associations uncertain. However, much of this uncertainty is due to limited data regarding these tradeoffs and particularly how they are mediated by the environment. To address this knowledge gap, we measured growth and survival of Pocillopora damicornis with thermally sensitive (clade C) or tolerant (clade D) symbionts at three temperatures over 18-55 weeks. Warming reduced coral growth overall, but altered the tradeoffs associated with symbiont type. While clade D corals grew 35-40 % slower than clade C corals at cooler temperatures (26 °C), warming of 1.5-3 °C reduced and eliminated this growth disadvantage. These results suggest that although warmer oceans will negatively impact corals, clade D may enhance survival at no cost to growth relative to clade C. Understanding these genotype-environment interactions can help improve modeling efforts and conservation strategies for reefs under global climate change.

Fire and fish dynamics in a changing climate

Treesearch

Lisa Holsinger; Robert Keane

2011-01-01

Wildland fire is a natural disturbance that affects the distribution and abundance of native fishes in the Rocky Mountain West (Rieman and others 2003). Fire can remove riparian vegetation, increasing direct solar radiation to the stream surface and leading to warmer summer water temperatures (fig. 1). Fire can also consume vegetation and organic biomass on the forest...

Changes in duration of dry and wet spells associated with air temperatures in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Hengchun

2018-03-01

This study uses daily precipitation records from 517 Russian stations (1966-2010) to examine the relationships between continuous dry and wet day duration and surface air temperature for all four seasons. The study found that both mean and extreme durations of dry periods increase with air temperature at about 7.0% (0.24 day/°C) and 7.7% (0.86 day/°C) respectively, while those of wet periods decrease at about 1.3% (-0.02 day/°C) and 2.2% (-0.10 day/°C) respectively averaged over the entire study region during summer. An increase in the duration of dry periods with higher air temperature is also found in other seasons at locations with a mean seasonal air temperature of about -5 °C or higher. Opposite relationships of shorter durations of dry periods and longer wet periods associated with higher air temperature are observed over the northern part of the study region in winter. The changes in durations of both dry and wet periods have significant correlations with the changes in total dry and wet days but are about 2.5 times higher for dry periods and 0.5 times lower for wet periods. The study also found that locations with longer durations of dry periods experience faster rates of increase in air temperature, suggesting the likelihood of exacerbating drought severity in drier and/or warmer locations for all seasons.

Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: the roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alfaro, Eric J.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2006-01-01

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Temperature-specific competition between invasive mosquitofish and an endangered cyprinodontid fish.

PubMed

Carmona-Catot, Gerard; Magellan, Kit; García-Berthou, Emili

2013-01-01

Condition-specific competition is widespread in nature. Species inhabiting heterogeneous environments tend to differ in competitive abilities depending on environmental stressors. Interactions between these factors can allow coexistence of competing species, which may be particularly important between invasive and native species. Here, we examine the effects of temperature on competitive interactions between invasive mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki, and an endemic Iberian toothcarp, Aphanius iberus. We compare the tendency to approach heterospecifics and food capture rates between these two species, and examine differences between sexes and species in aggressive interactions, at three different temperatures (19, 24 and 29°C) in three laboratory experiments. Mosquitofish exhibit much more aggression than toothcarp. We show that mosquitofish have the capacity to competitively displace toothcarp through interference competition and this outcome is more likely at higher temperatures. We also show a reversal in the competitive hierarchy through reduced food capture rate by mosquitofish at lower temperatures and suggest that these two types of competition may act synergistically to deprive toothcarp of food at higher temperatures. Males of both species carry out more overtly aggressive acts than females, which is probably related to the marked sexual dimorphism and associated mating systems of these two species. Mosquitofish may thus impact heavily on toothcarp, and competition from mosquitofish, especially in warmer summer months, may lead to changes in abundance of the native species and displacement to non-preferred habitats. Globally increasing temperatures mean that highly invasive, warm-water mosquitofish may be able to colonize environments from which they are currently excluded through reduced physiological tolerance to low temperatures. Research into the effects of temperature on interactions between native and invasive species is thus of fundamental

Limited Capacity for Faster Digestion in Larval Coral Reef Fish at an Elevated Temperature

PubMed Central

Clark, Timothy D.

2016-01-01

. 0.53±0.07 J at 31.5°C), SDA duration (6.0±0.6 h vs. 6.5±0.5 h), or the percent of total meal energy used for SDA (SDA coefficient: 10.1±1.3% vs. 13.0±1.7%). Our findings of higher Mo2 routine but similar SDA coefficient at high temperature provide the first empirical evidence that coral reef fish larvae may have to secure more food to attain similar growth rates during warm summer periods, and perhaps with chronically warmer conditions associated with climate change. PMID:27191721

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunstone, Nick; Smith, Doug; Scaife, Adam; Hermanson, Leon; Fereday, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stirling, Alison; Eade, Rosie; Gordon, Margaret; MacLachlan, Craig; Woollings, Tim; Sheen, Katy; Belcher, Stephen

2018-04-01

Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however, current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show that skillful predictions are possible (r 0.5, p < 0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g., wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g., dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapor into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general—although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses), very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skillful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.

Long-term trends of biogenic sulfur aerosol and its relationship with sea surface temperature in Arctic Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laing, James R.; Hopke, Philip K.; Hopke, Eleanor F.; Husain, Liaquat; Dutkiewicz, Vincent A.; Paatero, Jussi; Viisanen, Yrjö

2013-10-01

years of week-long total suspended particle samples from Kevo Finland were analyzed for methane sulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfate. Kevo is located 350 km north of the Arctic Circle. MSA and non-sea-salt sulfate (NSS-SO4) showed clear seasonal trends. MSA peaks from May to July, coinciding with warmer waters and increased biogenic activity in the surrounding seas. NSS-SO4 peaks in March with a minimum during the summer, the typical pattern for Arctic haze. MSA concentrations were found to be positively correlated (p < 0.001) with sea surface temperature anomalies in the surrounding seas. MSA showed a trend of 0.405 ng/m3/yr (0.680%/yr) for June and July. NSS-SO4 concentrations at Kevo declined dramatically in the early 1990s, probably as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The decline has continued since the mid-1990s.

Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and southwestern Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454-1970

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetter, O.; Pfister, C.

2011-11-01

This paper presents a unique 517-yr long documentary data-based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and south-western Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are partly based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), partly on (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774-1824 for calibration (r = 0.78) and from 1920-1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffers from the weak data base available for 1870-1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentary-based GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

The Role of Late Summer Melt Pond Water Layers in the Ocean Mixed Layer on Enhancing Ice/Ocean Albedo Feedbacks in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanton, T. P.; Shaw, W. J.

2016-02-01

Drainage of surface melt pond water into the top of the ocean mixed layer is seen widely in the Arctic ice pack in later summer (for example Gallaher et al 2015). Under calm conditions, this fresh water forms a thin, stratified layer immediately below the ice which is dynamically decoupled from the thicker, underlying seasonal mixed layer by the density difference between the two layers. The ephemeral surface layer is significantly warmer than the underlying ocean water owing to the higher freezing temperature of the fresh melt water. How the presence of this warm ephemeral layer enhances basal melt rate and speeds the destruction of the floes is investigated. High resolution timeseries measurements of T/S profiles in the 2m of the ocean immediately below the ice, and eddy-correlation fluxes of heat, salt and momentum 2.5m below the ice were made from an Autonomous Ocean Flux Buoy over a 2 month interval in later summer of 2015 as a component of the ONR Marginal Ice Zone project. The stratification and turbulent forcing observations are used with a 1 D turbulence closure model to understand how momentum and incoming radiative energy are stored and redistributed within the ephemeral layer. Under low wind forcing conditions both turbulent mixing energy and the water with high departure from freezing are trapped in the ephemeral layer by the strong density gradient at the base of the layer, resulting in rapid basal melting. This case is contrasted with model runs where the ephemeral layer heat is allowed to mix across the seasonal mixed layer, which results in slower basal melt rates. Consequently, the salinity-trapped warm ephemeral layer results in the formation of more open water earlier in the summer season, in turn resulting in increased cumulative heating of the ocean mixed layer, enhancing ice/ocean albedo feedbacks.

Water temperature effects from simulated dam operations and structures in the Middle Fork Willamette River, western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Turner, Daniel F.; Rounds, Stewart A.

2016-09-14

Significant FindingsStreamflow and water temperature in the Middle Fork Willamette River (MFWR), western Oregon, have been regulated and altered since the construction of Lookout Point, Dexter, and Hills Creek Dams in 1954 and 1961, respectively. Each year, summer releases from the dams typically are cooler than pre-dam conditions, with the reverse (warmer than pre-dam conditions) occurring in autumn. This pattern has been detrimental to habitat of endangered Upper Willamette River (UWR) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and UWR winter steelhead (O. mykiss) throughout multiple life stages. In this study, scenarios testing different dam-operation strategies and hypothetical dam-outlet structures were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic/temperature models of the MFWR system from Hills Creek Lake (HCR) to Lookout Point (LOP) and Dexter (DEX) Lakes to explore and understand the efficacy of potential flow and temperature mitigation options.Model scenarios were run in constructed wet, normal, and dry hydrologic calendar years, and designed to minimize the effects of Hills Creek and Lookout Point Dams on river temperature by prioritizing warmer lake surface releases in May–August and cooler, deep releases in September–December. Operational scenarios consisted of a range of modified release rate rules, relaxation of power-generation constraints, variations in the timing of refill and drawdown, and maintenance of different summer maximum lake levels at HCR and LOP. Structural scenarios included various combinations of hypothetical floating outlets near the lake surface and hypothetical new outlets at depth. Scenario results were compared to scenarios using existing operational rules that give temperature management some priority (Base), scenarios using pre-2012 operational rules that prioritized power generation over temperature management (NoBlend), and estimated temperatures from a without-dams condition (WoDams).Results of the tested model scenarios led

Feasibility of leakage detection in lake pressure pipes using the Distributed Temperature Sensing Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apperl, Benjamin; Pressl, Alexander; Schulz, Karsten

2016-04-01

This contribution describes a feasibility study carried out in the laboratory for the detection of leakages in lake pressure pipes using high-resolution fiber-optic temperature measurements (DTS). The usage of the DTS technology provides spatiotemporal high-resolution temperature measurements along a fibre optic cable. An opto-electrical device serves both as a light emitter as well as a spectrometer for measuring the scattering of light. The fiber optic cable serves as linear sensor. Measurements can be taken at a spatial resolution of up to 25 cm with a temperature accuracy of higher than 0.1 °C. The first warmer days after the winter stagnation provoke a temperature rise of superficial layers of lakes with barely stable temperature stratification. The warmer layer in the epilimnion differs 4 °C to 5 °C compared to the cold layers in the meta- or hypolimnion before water circulation in spring starts. The warmer water from the surface layer can be rinsed on the entire length of the pipe. Water intrudes at leakages by generating a slightly negative pressure in the pipe. This provokes a local temperature change, in case that the penetrating water (seawater) differs in temperature from the water pumped through the pipe. These temperature changes should be detectable and localized with a DTS cable introduced in the pipe. A laboratory experiment was carried out to determine feasibility as well as limits and problems of this methodology. A 6 m long pipe, submerged in a water tank at constant temperature, was rinsed with water 5-10 °C warmer than the water in the tank. Temperature measurements were taken continuously along the pipe. A negative pressure of 0.1 bar provoked the intrusion of colder water from the tank into the pipe through the leakages, resulting in local temperature changes. Experiments where conducted with different temperature gradients, leakage sizes, number of leaks as well as with different positioning of the DTS cable inside the pipe. Results

Moderate summer heat stress does not modify immunological parameters of Holstein dairy cows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacetera, Nicola; Bernabucci, Umberto; Ronchi, Bruno; Scalia, Daniela; Nardone, Alessandro

2002-02-01

The study was undertaken during spring and summer months in a territory representative of the Mediterranean climate to assess the effects of season on some immunological parameters of dairy cows. Twenty Holstein cows were used. Eleven of those cows gave birth during spring; the remaining nine cows gave birth in summer. The two groups of cows were homogeneous for parity. Values of air temperatures and relative humidity were recorded both during spring and summer, and were utilized to calculate the temperature humidity index (THI). One week before the expected calving, rectal temperatures and respiratory rates of the cows were recorded (1500 hours), and cell-mediated immunity was assessed by measuring the proliferation of mitogen-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). Within 3 h of calving, one colostrum sample was taken from each cow and analysed to determine content of immunoglobulin (Ig) G1, IgG2, IgM and IgA. At 48 h after birth, passive immunization of the calves was assessed by measuring total serum IgG. During summer, daytime (0900-2000 hours) THI values were above the upper critical value of 72 [75.2, (SD 2.6)] indicating conditions that could represent moderate heat stress. That THI values were able to predict heat stress was confirmed by the values of rectal temperatures and respiratory rates, which were higher ( P < 0.05 and P < 0.001 respectively) during summer. Proliferation of PBMC, the colostral concentration of Ig fractions and serum levels of IgG in their respective offspring did not differ between spring and summer cows. Results indicated that moderate heat stress due to the hot Mediterranean summer does not modify cell-mediated immunity, the protective value of colostrum and passive immunization of the offspring in dairy cows.

Sensitivity of Net Ecosystem Exchange to Climate Variability Depends on Plant Functional Type in Boreal Forest Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welp, L. R.; Liu, H.; Randerson, J. T.

2005-12-01

Recent increases in growing season length at high northern latitudes may allow for greater rates of photosynthesis and carbon accumulation during spring and summer. However, warmer air and soil temperatures may also stimulate higher rates of respiration in boreal and arctic ecosystems. The net effect of these different processes on biome-level carbon fluxes remains challenging to predict. We measured carbon fluxes in three interior Alaskan stands for three years (2002-2004) to test the hypothesis that NEE in early and mid successional ecosystems is more sensitive to climate variability than NEE of older, mature ecosystems. The stands represented a chronosequence of recovery after fire with burn events in 1920 (black spruce and moss), 1987 (aspen and willow) and 1999 (grasses and deciduous shrubs). In 2002, the region experienced a cool, moderately wet spring and wet summer. In contrast, 2003 had a warm, dry spring and dry summer. In 2004, the spring was the warmest and wettest of all three years and a severe summer drought followed. Spring air temperature increased during each year of the study with April-May means of 6.4°C in 2002, 7.7°C in 2003 and 9.9°C in 2004. In each stand, warmer spring temperatures increased spring GPP, as has been reported for other northern forests, and also led to increased carbon uptake at the aspen stand with May-June NEE values of -72, -106 and -138 g C m-2. In contrast, May-June NEE at the black spruce stand increased from -94 g C m-2 in 2002 to -110 g C m-2 in 2003, but returned to -96 g C m-2 in 2004 as Re increased in response to warmer soil temperatures during that year. Sensitivity of spring NEE to climate variability was greatest at the intermediate aged aspen stand. Using a simple atmospheric model, we also found that the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 was more sensitive to climate variability when forced with fluxes from the aspen stand than from the black spruce stand. During each year, we observed mid-summer

Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

2018-01-01

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

Minimum daily core body temperature in western grey kangaroos decreases as summer advances: a seasonal pattern, or a direct response to water, heat or energy supply?

PubMed

Maloney, Shane K; Fuller, Andrea; Meyer, Leith C R; Kamerman, Peter R; Mitchell, Graham; Mitchell, Duncan

2011-06-01

Using implanted temperature loggers, we measured core body temperature in nine western grey kangaroos every 5 min for 24 to 98 days in spring and summer. Body temperature was highest at night and decreased rapidly early in the morning, reaching a nadir at 10:00 h, after ambient temperature and solar radiation had begun to increase. On hotter days, the minimum morning body temperature was lower than on cooler days, decreasing from a mean of 36.2°C in the spring to 34.0°C in the summer. This effect correlated better with the time of the year than with proximate thermal stressors, suggesting that either season itself or some factor correlated with season, such as food availability, caused the change. Water saving has been proposed as a selective advantage of heterothermy in other large mammals, but in kangaroos the water savings would have been small and not required in a reserve with permanent standing water. We calculate that the lower core temperature could provide energy savings of nearly 7%. It is likely that the heterothermy that we observed on hot days results either from decreased energy intake during the dry season or from a seasonal pattern entrained in the kangaroos that presumably has been selected for because of decreased energy availability during the dry season.

Comparison of MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Air Temperature over the Continental USA Meteorological Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ping; Bounoua, Lahouari; Imhoff, Marc L.; Wolfe, Robert E.; Thome, Kurtis

2014-01-01

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) Impervious Surface Area (ISA) and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) are used in a spatial analysis to assess the surface-temperature-based urban heat island's (UHIS) signature on LST amplitude over the continental USA and to make comparisons to local air temperatures. Air-temperature-based UHIs (UHIA), calculated using the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) daily air temperatures, are compared with UHIS for urban areas in different biomes during different seasons. NLCD ISA is used to define urban and rural temperatures and to stratify the sampling for LST and air temperatures. We find that the MODIS LST agrees well with observed air temperature during the nighttime, but tends to overestimate it during the daytime, especially during summer and in nonforested areas. The minimum air temperature analyses show that UHIs in forests have an average UHIA of 1 C during the summer. The UHIS, calculated from nighttime LST, has similar magnitude of 1-2 C. By contrast, the LSTs show a midday summer UHIS of 3-4 C for cities in forests, whereas the average summer UHIA calculated from maximum air temperature is close to 0 C. In addition, the LSTs and air temperatures difference between 2006 and 2011 are in agreement, albeit with different magnitude.

Douglas-fir displays a range of growth responses to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth in the Pacific Northwest is affected by climatic, edaphic factors and Swiss needle cast (SNC) disease. We examine Douglas-fir growth responses to temperature, dewpoint deficit (DPD), soil moisture, and SNC using time series intervention analysis of intra-annual tree-ring width data collected at nine forest stands in western Oregon, USA. The effects of temperature and SNC were similar in importance on tree growth at all sites. Previous-year DPD during the annual drought period was a key factor limiting growth regionally. Winter temperature was more important at high elevation cool sites, whereas summer temperature was more important at warm and dry sites. Growth rate increased with summer temperature to an optimum (Topt) then decreased at higher temperatures. At drier sites, temperature and water affected growth interactively such that Topt decreased with decreasing summer soil moisture. With climate change, growth rates increased at high elevation sites and declined at mid-elevation inland sites since ~1990. Growth response to climate is masked by SNC regionally. We conclude that as temperature rises and precipitation patterns shift towards wetter winters and drier summers, Douglas-fir will experience greater temperature and water stress and an increase in severity of SNC. By the end of the 21st century, climate models predict hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the Pac

South Polar Cap, Summer 2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

This is the south polar cap of Mars as it appeared to the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) on April 17, 2000. In winter and early spring, this entire scene would be covered by frost. In summer, the cap shrinks to its minimum size, as shown here. Even though it is summer, observations made by the Viking orbiters in the 1970s showed that the south polar cap remains cold enough that the polar frost (seen here as white) consists of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide freezes at temperatures around -125o C (-193o F). Mid-summer afternoon sunlight illuminates this scene from the upper left from about 11.2o above the horizon. Soon the cap will experience sunsets; by June 2000, this pole will be in autumn, and the area covered by frost will begin to grow. Winter will return to the south polar region in December 2000. The polar cap from left to right is about 420 km (260 mi) across.

Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David

2017-04-01

Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of

Comparison between AVHRR surface temperature data and in-situ weather station temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezvanbehbahani, S.; Csatho, B. M.; Comiso, J. C.; Babonis, G. S.

2011-12-01

Advanced Very-High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) images have been exhaustively used to measure surface temperature time series of the Greenland Ice sheet. The purpose of this study is to assess the accuracy of monthly average ice sheet surface temperatures, derived from thermal infrared AVHRR satellite imagery on a 6.25 km grid. In-situ temperature data sets are from the Greenland Collection Network (GC-Net). GC-Net stations comprise sensors monitoring air temperature at 1 and 2 meter above the snow surface, gathered at every 60 seconds and monthly averaged to match the AVHRR temporal resolution. Our preliminary results confirm the good agreement between satellite and in-situ temperature measurements reported by previous studies. However, some large discrepancies still exist. While AVHRR provides ice surface temperature, in-situ stations measure air temperatures at different elevations above the snow surface. Since most in-situ data on ice sheets are collected by Automatic Weather Station (AWS) instruments, it is important to characterize the difference between surface and air temperatures. Therefore, we compared and analyzed average monthly AVHRR ice surface temperatures using data collected in 2002. Differences between these temperatures correlate with in-situ temperatures and GC-Net station elevations, with increasing differences at lower elevations and higher temperatures. The Summit Station (3199 m above sea level) and the Swiss Camp (1176 m above sea level) results were compared as high altitude and low altitude stations for 2002, respectively. Our results show that AVHRR derived temperatures were 0.5°K warmer than AWS temperature at the Summit Station, while this difference was 2.8°K in the opposite direction for the Swiss Camp with surface temperatures being lower than air temperatures. The positive bias of 0.5°K at the high altitude Summit Station (surface warmer than air) is within the retrieval error of AVHRR temperatures and might be in part due to

Close and distant: Contrasting the metabolism of two closely related subspecies of Scots pine under the effects of folivory and summer drought

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivas-Ubach, Albert; Sardans, Jordi; Hódar, José Antonio

The metabolome, the chemical phenotype of an organism, should be shaped by evolution. Metabolomes depend on genetic composition and expression, which can be sources of evolutionary inertia, so most aspects of metabolomes should be similar in closely related sympatric species. We examined the metabolomes of two sympatric subspecies of Pinus sylvestris in Sierra Nevada (southern Iberian Peninsula), one introduced (ssp. iberica) and one autochthonous (ssp. nevadensis), in summer and winter and exposed to folivory by the pine processionary moth. The overall metabolomes differed between the subspecies but both tended to respond more similarly to folivory. The metabolomes of the subspeciesmore » were more dissimilar in summer than in winter, and iberica trees had higher concentrations of metabolites directly related to drought stress. Our results suggest that certain plant metabolic responses associated with folivory have been conserved throughout evolutionary history. The larger divergence between subspecies metabolomes in summer is likely due to the warmer and drier conditions that the northern iberica subspecies experience in Sierra Nevada. Our results provide crucial insights into how iberica populations would respond to the predicted conditions of climate change under an increased defoliation, two recent severe issues in the Mediterranean Basin.« less

Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yi, Yonghong; Kimball, John; Reichle, Rolf H.

2014-01-01

Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

Direct benefits and indirect costs of warm temperatures for high-elevation populations of a solitary bee.

PubMed

Forrest, Jessica R K; Chisholm, Sarah P M

2017-02-01

Warm temperatures are required for insect flight. Consequently, warming could benefit many high-latitude and high-altitude insects by increasing opportunities for foraging or oviposition. However, warming can also alter species interactions, including interactions with natural enemies, making the net effect of rising temperatures on population growth rate difficult to predict. We investigated the temperature-dependence of nesting activity and lifetime reproductive output over 3 yr in subalpine populations of a pollen-specialist bee, Osmia iridis. Rates of nest provisioning increased with ambient temperatures and with availability of floral resources, as expected. However, warmer conditions did not increase lifetime reproductive output. Lifetime offspring production was best explained by rates of brood parasitism (by the wasp Sapyga), which increased with temperature. Direct observations of bee and parasite activity suggest that although activity of both species is favored by warmer temperatures, bees can be active at lower ambient temperatures, while wasps are active only at higher temperatures. Thus, direct benefits to the bees of warmer temperatures were nullified by indirect costs associated with increased parasite activity. To date, most studies of climate-change effects on pollinators have focused on changing interactions between pollinators and their floral host-plants (i.e., bottom-up processes). Our results suggest that natural enemies (i.e., top-down forces) can play a key role in pollinator population regulation and should not be overlooked in forecasts of pollinator responses to climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Summer Climate in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shu; Wang, Tijian; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitris; Zhuang, Bingliang

2018-04-01

The spatial distribution, radiative forcing, and climatic effects of tropospheric ozone in China during summer were investigated by using the regional climate model RegCM4. The results revealed that the tropospheric ozone column concentration was high in East China, Central China, North China, and the Sichuan basin during summer. The increase in tropospheric ozone levels since the industrialization era produced clear-sky shortwave and clear-sky longwave radiative forcing of 0.18 and 0.71 W m-2, respectively, which increased the average surface air temperature by 0.06 K and the average precipitation by 0.22 mm day-1 over eastern China during summer. In addition, tropospheric ozone increased the land-sea thermal contrast, leading to an enhancement of East Asian summer monsoon circulation over southern China and a weakening over northern China. The notable increase in surface air temperature in northwestern China, East China, and North China could be attributed to the absorption of longwave radiation by ozone, negative cloud amount anomaly, and corresponding positive shortwave radiation anomaly. There was a substantial increase in precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It was related to the enhanced upward motion and the increased water vapor brought by strengthened southerly winds in the lower troposphere.

Economic status and temperature-related mortality in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Youn-Hee; Bell, Michelle L.; Kan, Haidong; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Kim, Ho

2015-10-01

In developed countries, low latitude and high temperature are positively associated with the population's ability to adapt to heat. However, few studies have examined the effect of economic status on the relationship between long-term exposure to high temperature and health. We compared heterogeneous temperature-related mortality effects relative to the average summer temperature in high-socioeconomic-status (SES) cities to temperature-related effects in low-SES cities. In the first stage of the research, we conducted a linear regression analysis to quantify the mortality effects of high temperature (at or above the 95th percentile) in 32 cities in Taiwan, China, Japan, and Korea. In the second stage, we used a meta-regression to examine the association between mortality risk with average summer temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In cities with a low GDP per capita (less than 20,000 USD), the effects of temperature were detrimental to the population if the long-term average summer temperature was high. In contrast, in cities with a high GDP per capita, temperature-related mortality risk was not significantly related to average summer temperature. The relationship between long-term average summer temperature and the short-term effects of high temperatures differed based on the city-level economic status.

Operations and Maintenance April Newsletter | Poster

Cancer.gov

Summertime is coming and with it warmer temperatures, so get out there and enjoy it. The Operations and Maintenance (O&M) department has talented individuals dedicated to maintaining your air conditioning equipment for maximum efficiency. Our staff are always ready to address issues even in the dog days of summer. Please be assured that we are working diligently to keep you

Operations and Maintenance April Newsletter | Poster

Cancer.gov

Summertime is coming and with it warmer temperatures, so get out there and enjoy it. The Operations and Maintenance (O&M) department has talented individuals dedicated to maintaining your air conditioning equipment for maximum efficiency. Our staff are always ready to address issues even in the dog days of summer. Please be assured that we are working diligently to keep you comfortable.

Seasonal variations in aridity and temperature characterize changing climate during the last deglaciation in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikes, Elisabeth L.; Medeiros, Patricia M.; Augustinus, Paul; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Freeman, Katherine R.

2013-08-01

New multiproxy records of aridity from northern New Zealand assess the seasonality and overall pattern of wetness through the Last Glacial Coldest Period (LGCP) to the early Holocene in the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Biomass burning indicators based on terrestrial biomarkers and δ13C of individual plant leaf wax carbon compounds (n-alkanoic acids) from a maar lake were used to track aridity. In combination with published sea surface temperatures and new pollen-based temperature estimates from the same core, seasonal climatological changes in the Auckland area were determined from 27 to 9 cal. ka BP. These proxies document a shift from cold and dry conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum to seasonally wetter conditions through the deglaciation. Spring became warmer first and possibly wetter while summers remained drier and initially cooler. The progression from cold-dry to warm-wet was punctuated by the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) which stands out as having wetter conditions in both spring and summer and mild cooling largely concentrated in spring. The seasonal climate trends observed here can be plausibly explained by a rapid change from a subpolar climate to one with subtropical control in this region of the southwest Pacific across the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition. A southerly shift and decreasing intensity of the westerly wind belt after the LGCP is considered to have driven the early deglacial warming and pulse of wetness whereas a northward shift without a commensurate increase in intensity of the westerlies may explain conditions in the ACR.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

Temperature changes in Poland from the 16th to the 20th centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przybylak, Rajmund; Majorowicz, Jacek; Wójcik, Gabriel; Zielski, Andrzej; Choryczewski, Waldemar; Marciniak, Kazimierz; Nowosad, Wiesaw; Oliski, Piotr; Syta, Krzysztof

2005-05-01

A standardized tree-ring width chronology of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) along with different types of documentary evidence (e.g. annals, chronicles, diaries, private correspondence, records of public administration, early newspapers) have been used to reconstruct air temperature in Poland. The ground surface temperature (GST) history has been reconstructed based on the continuous temperature logs from 13 wells, using a new method developed recently by Harris and Chapman (1998; Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 7371-7383) which is compared with the functional space inversion (FSI) method applied to all available Polish temperature-depth profiles analysed before.Response function calculations conducted for trees growing in Poland (except in mountainous regions) reveal a statistically significant correlation between the annual ring widths of the Scots pine and the monthly mean air temperatures, particularly from February and March, but also from January and April. Therefore, it was only possible to reconstruct the mean January-April air temperature.The following periods featured a warm late winter/early spring: 1530-90, 1656-70 (the warmest period), 1820-50, 1910-40, and after 1985. On the other hand, a cold January-April occurred in the following periods: 1600-50, 1760-75, 1800-15, 1880-1900, and 1950-80.Reconstructions of thermal conditions using documentary evidence were carried out for winter (December-February) and summer (June-August) from 1501 to 1840 and, therefore, their results cannot be directly compared with reconstructions based on tree-ring widths. Winter temperatures in this period were colder than air temperature in the 20th century. On the other hand, historical summers were generally warmer than those occurring in the 20th century. Such situations dominated in the 16th and 17th centuries, as well as at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. Throughout almost the entire period from 1501 to 1840, the thermal continentality of the climate

Physical and biological characteristics of the winter-summer transition in the Central Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarokanellos, Nikolaos D.; Papadopoulos, Vassilis P.; Sofianos, Sarantis. S.; Jones, Burton H.

2017-08-01

The Central Red Sea (CRS) lies between two distinct hydrographic and atmospheric regimes. In the southern Red Sea, seasonal monsoon reversal regulates the exchange of water between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. In the northern Red Sea, intermediate and occasionally deep water are formed during winter to sustain the basin's overturning circulation. Highly variable mesoscale eddies and the northward flowing eastern boundary current (EBC) determine the physical and biogeochemical characteristics of the CRS. Ship-based and glider observations in the CRS between March and June 2013 capture key features of the transition from winter to summer and depict the impact of the eddy activity on the EBC flow. Less saline and relatively warmer water of Indian Ocean origin reaches the CRS via the EBC. Initially, an anticyclonic eddy with diameter of 140 km penetrating to 150m depth with maximum velocities up to 30-35 cm s-1 prevails in the CRS. This anticyclonic eddy appears to block or at least redirect the northward flow of the EBC. Dissipation of the eddy permits the near-coastal, northward flow of the EBC and gives place to a smaller cyclonic eddy with a diameter of about 50 km penetrating to 200 m depth. By the end of May, as the northerly winds become stronger and persistent throughout the basin, characteristic of the summer southwest monsoon wind regime, the EBC, and its associated lower salinity water became less evident, replaced by the saltier surface water that characterizes the onset of the summer stratification in the CRS.

Spring-summer temperatures reconstructed for northern Switzerland and south-western Germany from winter rye harvest dates, 1454-1970

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetter, O.; Pfister, C.

2011-08-01

This paper presents a unique 517 yr long documentary data - based reconstruction of spring-summer (MAMJJ) temperatures for northern Switzerland and south western Germany from 1454 to 1970. It is composed of 25 partial series of winter grain (secale cereale) harvest starting dates (WGHD) that are in one part based on harvest related bookkeeping of institutions (hospitals, municipalities), in the other part to (early) phenological observations. The resulting main Basel WGHD series was homogenised with regard to dating style, data type and altitude. The calibration and verification approach was applied using the homogenous HISTALP temperature series from 1774-1824 for calibration (r = 0,78) and from 1920-1970 for verification (r = 0.75). The latter result even suffer from the weak data basis available for 1870-1950. Temperature reconstructions based on WGHD are more influenced by spring temperatures than those based on grape harvest dates (GHD), because rye in contrast to vines already begins to grow as soon as sunlight brings the plant to above freezing. The earliest and latest harvest dates were checked for consistency with narrative documentary weather reports. Comparisons with other European documentary-based GHD and WGHD temperature reconstructions generally reveal significant correlations decreasing with the distance from Switzerland. The new Basel WGHD series shows better skills in representing highly climate change sensitive variations of Swiss Alpine glaciers than available GHD series.

Water temperature profiles for reaches of the Raging River during summer baseflow, King County, western Washington, July 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Opatz, Chad C.

2016-03-22

Re-introducing wood into rivers where it was historically removed is one approach to improving habitat conditions in rivers of the Pacific Northwest. The Raging River drainage basin, which flows into the Snoqualmie River at Fall City, western Washington, was largely logged during the 20th century and wood was removed from its channel. To improve habitat conditions for several species of anadromous salmonids that spawn and rear in the Raging River, King County Department of Transportation placed untethered log jams in a 250-meter reach where wood was historically removed. The U.S. Geological Survey measured longitudinal profiles of near-streambed temperature during summer baseflow along 1,026 meters of channel upstream, downstream, and within the area of wood placements. These measurements were part of an effort by King County to monitor the geomorphic and biological responses to these wood placements. Near-streambed temperatures averaged over about 1-meter intervals were measured with a fiber‑optic distributed temperature sensor every 30 minutes for 7 days between July 7 and 13, 2015. Vertical temperature profiles were measured coincident with the longitudinal temperature profile at four locations at 0 centimeters (cm) (at the streambed), and 35 and 70 cm beneath the streambed to document thermal dynamics of the hyporheic zone and surface water in the study reach.

Movement of moisture in refrigerated cheese samples transferred to room temperature.

PubMed

Emmons, D B; Bradley, R L; Campbell, C; Sauvé, J P

2001-01-01

When cheese samples refrigerated at 4 degrees C in 120 mL plastic tubs were transferred to room temperature at 23 degrees C, moisture began to move from the warmer surface to the cooler interior; the difference after 1 h was 0.2-0.4%. Others had observed that moisture moved from the interior of warmer blocks of cheese to the cooler surface during cooling at the end of cheese manufacture. In loosely packed cheese prepared for analysis, part of the moisture movement may have been due to evaporation from the warmer surface and condensation on the cooler cheese. It is recommended that cheese be prepared for analysis immediately before weighing. Cheese samples that have been refrigerated, as in interlaboratory trials, should also be remixed or prepared again.

Does warmer China land attract more super typhoons?

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiangde; Peng, Shiqiu; Yang, Xiangjing; Xu, Hongxiong; Tong, Daniel Q.; Wang, Dongxiao; Guo, Yudi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Chen, Lianshou; Yu, Wei; Li, Yineng; Lai, Zhijuan; Zhang, Shengjun

2013-01-01

Accurate prediction of where and when typhoons (or named hurricanes which form over the North Atlantic Ocean) will make landfall is critical to protecting human lives and properties. Although the traditional method of typhoon track prediction based on the steering flow theory has been proven to be an effective way in most situations, it slipped up in some cases. Our analysis of the long-term Chinese typhoon records reveals that typhoons, especially super typhoons (those with maximum sustained surface winds of greater than 51 ms−1), have a trend to make landfalls toward warmer land in China over the past 50 years (1960–2009). Numerical sensitivity experiments using an advanced atmospheric model further confirm this finding. Our finding suggests an alternative approach to predict the landfall tracks of the most devastating typhoons in the southeastern China. PMID:23519311

Sensitivity of Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest Net Ecosystem Productivity to Seasonal Anomalies in Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frolking, Steve

1997-01-01

Abstract. A process-oriented, daily time step model of a spruce/moss boreal ecosystem simulated 1994 and 1995 productivity for a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study site near Thompson, Manitoba. Simulated black spruce net primary productivity (NPP) was 139 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 112 in 1995; feathermoss NPP was 13.0 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 9.7 in 1995; decomposition was 126 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 130 in 1995; net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was an uptake of 26.3 g C m(exp -2)in 1994 and 2.5 in 1995. A very dry period for the first half of the 1995 summer was the major cause of that year's lower productivity. Sensitivity simulations explored the impact of 2-month long warmer, cooler, wetter, and drier spells on ecosystem productivity. Warmer summers decreased spruce NPP, moss NPP, and NEP; cooler summers had the opposite effect. Earlier snowmelt (due to either warmer spring temperatures or reduced winter precipitation) increased moss and spruce NPP; later snowmelt had the opposite effect. The largest effect on decomposition was a 5% reduction due to a drier summer. One-month droughts (April through October) were also imposed on 1975 base year weather. Early summer droughts reduced moss annual NPP by -30-40%; summer droughts reduced spruce annual NPP by 10%; late summer droughts increased moss NPP by about 20% due to reduced respiration; May to September monthly droughts reduced heterotrophic respiration by about 10%. Variability in NEP was up to roughly +/- 35%. Finally, 1975 growing season precipitation was redistributed into frequent, small rainstorms and infrequent, large rainstorms. These changes had no effect on spruce NPP. Frequent rainstorms increased decomposition by a few percent, moss NPP by 50%, and NEP by 20%. Infrequent rainstorms decreased decomposition by 5%, moss NPP by 50% and NEP by 15%. The impact of anomalous weather patterns on productivity of this ecosystem depended on their timing during the year. Multiyear data sets are necessary to

Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

2017-09-01

The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

Temperature-Specific Competition between Invasive Mosquitofish and an Endangered Cyprinodontid Fish

PubMed Central

Carmona-Catot, Gerard; Magellan, Kit; García-Berthou, Emili

2013-01-01

Condition-specific competition is widespread in nature. Species inhabiting heterogeneous environments tend to differ in competitive abilities depending on environmental stressors. Interactions between these factors can allow coexistence of competing species, which may be particularly important between invasive and native species. Here, we examine the effects of temperature on competitive interactions between invasive mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki, and an endemic Iberian toothcarp, Aphanius iberus. We compare the tendency to approach heterospecifics and food capture rates between these two species, and examine differences between sexes and species in aggressive interactions, at three different temperatures (19, 24 and 29°C) in three laboratory experiments. Mosquitofish exhibit much more aggression than toothcarp. We show that mosquitofish have the capacity to competitively displace toothcarp through interference competition and this outcome is more likely at higher temperatures. We also show a reversal in the competitive hierarchy through reduced food capture rate by mosquitofish at lower temperatures and suggest that these two types of competition may act synergistically to deprive toothcarp of food at higher temperatures. Males of both species carry out more overtly aggressive acts than females, which is probably related to the marked sexual dimorphism and associated mating systems of these two species. Mosquitofish may thus impact heavily on toothcarp, and competition from mosquitofish, especially in warmer summer months, may lead to changes in abundance of the native species and displacement to non-preferred habitats. Globally increasing temperatures mean that highly invasive, warm-water mosquitofish may be able to colonize environments from which they are currently excluded through reduced physiological tolerance to low temperatures. Research into the effects of temperature on interactions between native and invasive species is thus of fundamental

An investigation of the effects from a urethral warming system on temperature distributions during cryoablation treatment of the prostate: a phantom study.

PubMed

Favazza, C P; Gorny, K R; King, D M; Rossman, P J; Felmlee, J P; Woodrum, D A; Mynderse, L A

2014-08-01

Introduction of urethral warmers to aid cryosurgery in the prostate has significantly reduced the incidence of urethral sloughing; however, the incidence rate still remains as high as 15%. Furthermore, urethral warmers have been associated with an increase of cancer recurrence rates. Here, we report results from our phantom-based investigation to determine the impact of a urethral warmer on temperature distributions around cryoneedles during cryosurgery. Cryoablation treatments were simulated in a tissue mimicking phantom containing a urethral warming catheter. Four different configurations of cryoneedles relative to urethral warming catheter were investigated. For each configuration, the freeze-thaw cycles were repeated with and without the urethral warming system activated. Temperature histories were recorded at various pre-arranged positions relative to the cryoneedles and urethral warming catheter. In all configurations, the urethral warming system was effective at maintaining sub-lethal temperatures at the simulated surface of the urethra. The warmer action, however, was additionally demonstrated to potentially negatively impact treatment lethality in the target zone by elevating minimal temperatures to sub-lethal levels. In all needle configurations, rates of freezing and thawing were not significantly affected by the use of the urethral warmer. The results indicate that the urethral warming system can protect urethral tissue during cryoablation therapy with cryoneedles placed as close as 5mm to the surface of the urethra. Using a urethral warming system and placing multiple cryoneedles within 1cm of each other delivers lethal cooling at least 5mm from the urethral surface while sparing urethral tissue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lack of cool, not warm, extremes distinguishes late 20th Century climate in 979-year Tasmanian summer temperature reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Evans, R.; Francey, R.; Buckley, B. M.; Palmer, J. G.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

2018-03-01

Very few annually resolved millennial-length temperature reconstructions exist for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present four 979-year reconstructions for southeastern Australia for the austral summer months of December-February. Two of the reconstructions are based on the Australian Water Availability Project dataset and two on the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset. For each climate data set, one reconstruction is based solely on Lagarostrobos franklinii (restricted reconstructions) while the other is based on multiple Tasmanian conifer species (unrestricted reconstructions). Each reconstruction calibrates ~50-60% of the variance in the temperature datasets depending on the number of tree-ring records available for the reconstruction. We found little difference in the temporal variability of the reconstructions, although extremes are amplified in the restricted reconstructions relative to the unrestricted reconstructions. The reconstructions highlight the occurrence of numerous individual years, especially in the 15th-17th Centuries, for which temperatures were comparable with those of the late 20th Century. The 1950-1999 period, however, stands out as the warmest 50-year period on average for the past 979 years, with a sustained shift away from relatively low mean temperatures, the length of which is unique in the 979-year record. The reconstructions are strongly and positively related to temperatures across the southeast of the Australian continent, negatively related to temperatures in the north and northeast of the continent, and uncorrelated with temperatures in the west. The lack of a strong relationship with temperatures across the continent highlights the necessity of a sub-regional focus for Australasian temperature reconstructions.