Trends in historical mercury deposition inferred from lake sediment cores across a climate gradient in the Canadian High Arctic.

PubMed

Korosi, Jennifer B; Griffiths, Katherine; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

2018-06-02

Recent climate change may be enhancing mercury fluxes to Arctic lake sediments, confounding the use of sediment cores to reconstruct histories of atmospheric deposition. Assessing the independent effects of climate warming on mercury sequestration is challenging due to temporal overlap between warming temperatures and increased long-range transport of atmospheric mercury following the Industrial Revolution. We address this challenge by examining mercury trends in short cores (the last several hundred years) from eight lakes centered on Cape Herschel (Canadian High Arctic) that span a gradient in microclimates, including two lakes that have not yet been significantly altered by climate warming due to continued ice cover. Previous research on subfossil diatoms and inferred primary production indicated the timing of limnological responses to climate warming, which, due to prevailing ice cover conditions, varied from ∼1850 to ∼1990 for lakes that have undergone changes. We show that climate warming may have enhanced mercury deposition to lake sediments in one lake (Moraine Pond), while another (West Lake) showed a strong signal of post-industrial mercury enrichment without any corresponding limnological changes associated with warming. Our results provide insights into the role of climate warming and organic carbon cycling as drivers of mercury deposition to Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling aspen responses to climatic warming and insect defoliation in western Canada

Treesearch

E. H. Ted Hogg

2001-01-01

Effects of climate change at three aspen sites in Saskatchewan were explored using a climate-driven model that includes insect defoliation. A simulated warming of 4-5 °C caused complete mortality due to drought at all three sites. A simulated warming of 2-2.5 °C caused complete mortality of aspen at the parkland site, while aspen growth at two boreal sites showed...

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Investigating sea level rise due to global warming in the teaching laboratory using Archimedes’ principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Stephen; Pearce, Darren

2015-11-01

A teaching laboratory experiment is described that uses Archimedes’ principle to precisely investigate the effect of global warming on the oceans. A large component of sea level rise is due to the increase in the volume of water due to the decrease in water density with increasing temperature. Water close to 0 °C is placed in a beaker and a glass marble hung from an electronic balance immersed in the water. As the water warms, the weight of the marble increases as the water is less buoyant due to the decrease in density. In the experiment performed in this paper a balance with a precision of 0.1 mg was used with a marble 40.0 cm3 and mass of 99.3 g, yielding water density measurements with an average error of -0.008 ± 0.011%.

A numerical study of the acoustic radiation due to eddy current-cryostat interactions.

PubMed

Wang, Yaohui; Liu, Feng; Zhou, Xiaorong; Li, Yu; Crozier, Stuart

2017-06-01

To investigate the acoustic radiation due to eddy current-cryostat interactions and perform a qualitative analysis on noise reduction methods. In order to evaluate the sound pressure level (SPL) of the eddy current induced warm bore wall vibration, a Finite Element (FE) model was created to simulate the noises from both the warm bore wall vibration and the gradient coil assembly. For the SPL reduction of the warm bore wall vibration, we first improved the active shielding of the gradient coil, thus reducing the eddy current on the warm bore wall. A damping treatment was then applied to the warm bore wall to control the acoustic radiation. Initial simulations show that the SPL of the warm bore wall is higher than that of the gradient assembly with typical design shielding ratios at many frequencies. Subsequent simulation results of eddy current control and damping treatment application show that the average SPL reduction of the warm bore wall can be as high as 9.6 dB, and even higher in some frequency bands. Combining eddy current control and suggested damping scheme, the noise level in a MRI system can be effectively reduced. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

2017-12-01

Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

Cloud-radiation interactions - Effects of cirrus optical thickness feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somerville, Richard C. J.; Iacobellis, Sam

1987-01-01

The paper is concerned with a cloud-radiation feedback mechanism which may be an important component of the climate changes expected from increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace greenhouse gases. A major result of the study is that cirrus cloud optical thickness feedbacks may indeed tend to increase the surface warming due to trace gas increases. However, the positive feedback from cirrus appears to be generally weaker than the negative effects due to lower clouds. The results just confirm those of earlier research indicating that the net effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks may be a negative feedback which may substantially (by a factor of about 2) reduce the surface warming due to the doubling of CO2, even in the presence of cirrus clouds.

Warming effects on permafrost ecosystem carbon fluxes associated with plant nutrients.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Peng, Yunfeng; Natali, Susan M; Chen, Kelong; Han, Tianfeng; Yang, Guibiao; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhang, Dianye; Wang, Guanqin; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jianchun; Liu, Futing; Yang, Yuanhe

2017-11-01

Large uncertainties exist in carbon (C)-climate feedback in permafrost regions, partly due to an insufficient understanding of warming effects on nutrient availabilities and their subsequent impacts on vegetation C sequestration. Although a warming climate may promote a substantial release of soil C to the atmosphere, a warming-induced increase in soil nutrient availability may enhance plant productivity, thus offsetting C loss from microbial respiration. Here, we present evidence that the positive temperature effect on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes may be weakened by reduced plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations in a Tibetan permafrost ecosystem. Although experimental warming initially enhanced ecosystem CO 2 uptake, the increased rate disappeared after the period of peak plant growth during the early growing season, even though soil moisture was not a limiting factor in this swamp meadow ecosystem. We observed that warming did not significantly affect soil extractable N or P during the period of peak growth, but decreased both N and P concentrations in the leaves of dominant plant species, likely caused by accelerated plant senescence in the warmed plots. The attenuated warming effect on CO 2 assimilation during the late growing season was associated with lowered leaf N and P concentrations. These findings suggest that warming-mediated nutrient changes may not always benefit ecosystem C uptake in permafrost regions, making our ability to predict the C balance in these warming-sensitive ecosystems more challenging than previously thought. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Effects of Warming and Nitrogen Addition on Soil Nitrogen Cycling in a Temperate Grassland, Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Ma, Lin-Na; Lü, Xiao-Tao; Liu, Yang; Guo, Ji-Xun; Zhang, Nan-Yi; Yang, Jian-Qin; Wang, Ren-Zhong

2011-01-01

Background Both climate warming and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are predicted to affect soil N cycling in terrestrial biomes over the next century. However, the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on soil N mineralization in temperate grasslands are poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings A field manipulation experiment was conducted to examine the effects of warming and N addition on soil N cycling in a temperate grassland of northeastern China from 2007 to 2009. Soil samples were incubated at a constant temperature and moisture, from samples collected in the field. The results showed that both warming and N addition significantly stimulated soil net N mineralization rate and net nitrification rate. Combined warming and N addition caused an interactive effect on N mineralization, which could be explained by the relative shift of soil microbial community structure because of fungal biomass increase and strong plant uptake of added N due to warming. Irrespective of strong intra- and inter-annual variations in soil N mineralization, the responses of N mineralization to warming and N addition did not change during the three growing seasons, suggesting independence of warming and N responses of N mineralization from precipitation variations in the temperate grassland. Conclusions/Significance Interactions between climate warming and N deposition on soil N cycling were significant. These findings will improve our understanding on the response of soil N cycling to the simultaneous climate change drivers in temperate grassland ecosystem. PMID:22096609

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

PubMed

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

2015-12-01

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Solomon, Susan; Daniel, John S; Sanford, Todd J; Murphy, Daniel M; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2010-10-26

Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y. Here we show that the warming due to non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, although not irreversible, persists notably longer than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on climate system behavior, particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and methane, nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. In effect, dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow the loss of energy from the Earth's climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime, even for short-lived species; such actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean.

Effects of experimental warming on soil temperature, moisture and respiration in northern Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharkhuu, A.; Plante, A. F.; Casper, B. B.; Helliker, B. R.; Liancourt, P.; Boldgiv, B.; Petraitis, P.

2010-12-01

Mean annual air temperature in the Lake Hövsgöl region of northern Mongolia has increased by 1.8 °C over the last 40 years, greater than global average temperature increases. A decrease of soil moisture due to changes in precipitation regime is also predicted over the northern region of Mongolia. Warmer temperatures generally result in higher soil CO2 efflux, but responses of soil efflux to climate change may differ among ecosystems due to response variations in soil temperature and moisture regime. The objectives of our study were to examine the environmental responses (soil temperature and moisture) to experimental warming, and to test responses of soil CO2 efflux to experimental warming, in three different ecozones. The experimental site is located in Dalbay Valley, on the eastern shore of Lake Hövsgöl in northern Mongolia (51.0234° N 100.7600° E; 1670 m elevation). Replicate plots with ITEX-style open-top passive warming chambers (OTC) and non-warmed control areas were installed in three ecosystems: (1) semi-arid grassland on the south-facing slope not underlain by permafrost, (2) riparian zone, and (3) larch forest on the north-facing slope underlain by permafrost. Aboveground air temperature and belowground soil temperature and moisture (10 and 20 cm) were monitored using sensors and dataloggers. Soil CO2 efflux was measured periodically using a portable infra-red gas analyzer with an attached soil respiration chamber. The warming chambers were installed and data collected during the 2009 and 2010 growing seasons. Passive warming chambers increased nighttime air temperatures; more so in grassland compared to the forest. Increases in daytime air temperatures were observed in the grassland, but were not significant in the riparian and forest areas. Soil temperatures in warmed plots were consistently higher in all three ecozones at 10 cm depth but not at 20 cm depth. Warming chambers had a slight drying effect in the grassland, but no consistent effect in forest and riparian areas. Measured soil CO2 efflux rates were highest in riparian area, and lowest in the grassland. Initial results of soil efflux measurements suggest that the effect of warming treatment significantly depends on the ecosystem type: soil efflux rates differed between warming treatments in forest plots, but not in riparian and grassland plots.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

Warming up Improves Speech Production in Patients with Adult Onset Myotonic Dystrophy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Swart, B.J.M.; van Engelen, B.G.M.; Maassen, B.A.M.

2007-01-01

This investigation was conducted to study whether warming up decreases myotonia (muscle stiffness) during speech production or causes adverse effects due to fatigue or exhaustion caused by intensive speech activity in patients with adult onset myotonic dystrophy. Thirty patients with adult onset myotonic dystrophy (MD) and ten healthy controls…

Arctic tree-line reproduction in Canada and Siberia: Possible greenhouse effect?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, H.

1997-12-31

The arctic tree-line is sensitive to climatic changes as indicated by paleo-ecological studies, and it is predicted to respond strongly to global warming. Northern Canadian studies of tree-line reproduction spanning two decades demonstrate a widespread switch from infertility due to cold summers (early 1970`s) to pollen and cone production (1990s), in line with greenhouse warming predictions. Ecotonal cone formation is usually sporadic and localized, but this largescale reproductive shift, along a 1500 km transect, suggests widespread climatic warming since the 1970s. These Siberian studies (at 27 sites) represented only a modest fraction of the Eurasian tree-line, but the widespread fertilitymore » at so many locations, plus the extensive Canadian evidence, suggests that the predicted polar warming may be responsible. Whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climatic change, and whether it will be short or long-term, is unclear, and merits further study.« less

Analytical Models of Exoplanetary Atmospheres. V. Non-gray Thermal Structure with Coherent Scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohandas, Gopakumar; Pessah, Martin E.; Heng, Kevin

2018-05-01

We apply the picket fence treatment to model the effects brought about by spectral lines on the thermal structure of irradiated atmospheres. The lines may be due to pure absorption processes, pure coherent scattering processes, or some combination of absorption and scattering. If the lines arise as a pure absorption process, the surface layers of the atmosphere are cooler, whereas this surface cooling is completely absent if the lines are due to pure coherent isotropic scattering. The lines also lead to a warming of the deeper atmosphere. The warming of the deeper layers is, however, independent of the nature of line formation. Accounting for coherent isotropic scattering in the shortwave and longwave continuum results in anti-greenhouse cooling and greenhouse warming on an atmosphere-wide scale. The effects of coherent isotropic scattering in the line and continuum operate in tandem to determine the resulting thermal structure of the irradiated atmosphere.

Marginal sea surface temperature variation as a pre-cursor of heat waves over the Korean Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Na, Hye-Yun

2017-11-01

This study examines the role of the marginal sea surface temperature (SST) on heat waves over Korea. It is found that sea surface warming in the south sea of Korea/Japan (122-138°E, 24- 33°N) causes heat waves after about a week. Due to the frictional force, the positive geopotential height anomalies associated with the south sea warming induce divergent flows over the boundary layer. This divergent flow induces the southerly in Korea, which leads to a positive temperature advection. On the other hand, over the freeatmosphere, the geostrophic wind around high-pressure anomalies flows in a westerly direction over Korea during the south sea warming, which is not effective in temperature advection. Therefore, the positive temperature advection in Korea due to the south sea warming decreases with height. This reduces the vertical potential temperature gradient, which indicates a negative potential vorticity (PV) tendency over Korea. Therefore, the high-pressure anomaly over the south sea of Korea is propagated northward, which results in heat waves due to more incoming solar radiation.

Urbanization Causes Increased Cloud Base Height and Decreased Fog in Coastal Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Schwartz, Rachel E.; Iacobellis, Sam; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Still, Christopher J.; Husak, Gregory; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

Subtropical marine stratus clouds regulate coastal and global climate, but future trends in these clouds are uncertain. In coastal Southern California (CSCA), interannual variations in summer stratus cloud occurrence are spatially coherent across 24 airfields and dictated by positive relationships with stability above the marine boundary layer (MBL) and MBL height. Trends, however, have been spatially variable since records began in the mid-1900s due to differences in nighttime warming. Among CSCA airfields, differences in nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, are strongly and positively related to fraction of nearby urban cover, consistent with an urban heat island effect. Nighttime warming raises the near-surface dew point depression, which lifts the altitude of condensation and cloud base height, thereby reducing fog frequency. Continued urban warming, rising cloud base heights, and associated effects on energy and water balance would profoundly impact ecological and human systems in highly populated and ecologically diverse CSCA.

Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges

PubMed Central

Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan

2017-01-01

Abstract Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive (Eupatorium catarium, Mikania micrantha, Biodens pilosa var. radiate, Ageratum conyzoides) in China, and four are native (Sonchus arvensis, Senecios candens, Pterocypsela indica, Eupatorium fortunei). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment (Tc) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTRsym), asymmetric warming with increased (DTRinc) and decreased (DTRdec) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTRsym and DTRinc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTRsym and DTRinc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTRsym, DTRdec decreased the biomass of both the invasive and native plants, while the asymmetric summer warming treatments (DTRinc and DTRdec) decreased the biomass of the invasive but not the native plants. In addition, wintertime DTRinc did not enhance the biomass of all the plants relative to DTRsym. Our results were obtained in an unrealistic setting; the growth conditions in chambers (e.g. low light, low herbivory, no competition) are quite different from natural conditions (high light, normal herbivory and competition), which may influence the effects of warming on the seedling establishment and growth of both invasive and native plants. Nonetheless, our work highlights the importance of asymmetric warming, particularly in regards to the comparison with the effects of symmetric warming on both invasive and native plants. Conclusions regarding the effects of future warming should be made cautiously because warming with different DTRs may suggest different implications for invasion, and effects of warming may be different in different seasons. PMID:28775830

Aerosol reductions could dominate regional climate responses in low GHG emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S.; Forster, P.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S. M.; Schleussner, C. F.

2017-12-01

Limiting global warming to current political goals requires strong, rapid mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline sharply, due to co-emission with greenhouse gases, and future measures to improve air quality. As the net climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained, predicting the impact of strong aerosol emission reductions remains challenging. Here we investigate the isolated and compound climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and SO2, and moderate, near term GHG dominated global warming, using four coupled climate models. As the dominating effect of aerosol emission reduction is a removal of cooling from sulphur, the resulting climate impacts amplify those of GHG induced warming. BC emissions contribute little to reducing surface warming, but have stronger regional impacts. For the major aerosol emission regions, extreme weather indices are more sensitive to aerosol removal than to GHG increases, per degree of surface warming. East Asia in particular stands out, mainly due to the high present regional aerosol emissions. We show how present climate models indicate that future regional climate change will depend strongly on changes in loading and distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, in addition to surface temperature change.

Impact of global warming on the typhoon intensities during 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, N. Y.; Yang, S. H.; Elsner, J.; Chun, Y.

2017-12-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the `blasting effect' and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Nino is negligibly small. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

Effects of turbulence on warm clouds and precipitation with various aerosol concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyunho; Baik, Jong-Jin; Han, Ji-Young

2015-02-01

This study investigates the effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement (TICE) on warm clouds and precipitation by changing the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration using a two-dimensional dynamic model with bin microphysics. TICE is determined according to the Taylor microscale Reynolds number and the turbulent dissipation rate. The thermodynamic sounding used in this study is characterized by a warm and humid atmosphere with a capping inversion layer, which is suitable for simulating warm clouds. For all CCN concentrations, TICE slightly reduces the liquid water path during the early stage of cloud development and accelerates the onset of surface precipitation. However, changes in the rainwater path and in the amount of surface precipitation that are caused by TICE depend on the CCN concentrations. For high CCN concentrations, the mean cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) decreases and the mean effective radius increases due to TICE. These changes cause an increase in the amount of surface precipitation. However, for low CCN concentrations, changes in the mean CDNC and in the mean effective radius induced by TICE are small and the amount of surface precipitation decreases slightly due to TICE. A decrease in condensation due to the accelerated coalescence between droplets explains the surface precipitation decrease. In addition, an increase in the CCN concentration can lead to an increase in the amount of surface precipitation, and the relationship between the CCN concentration and the amount of surface precipitation is affected by TICE. It is shown that these results depend on the atmospheric relative humidity.

[Prevention of perioperative hypothermia].

PubMed

Horn, Ernst-Peter; Torossian, Alexander

2010-03-01

Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia impairs postoperative outcome in surgical patients due to ischemic myocardial events, wound infections and coagulation disorders. Body core temperature should be assessed 1-2h preoperatively and continuously during surgery. To prevent hypothermia patients and nursing clinical staff should be teached and trained. Preoperatively surgical patients should always be prewarmed by using convective warming devices and active warming should be continued in surgeries longer than 1 hour. Warming of IV fluids is effective if infusion rates are above 1l/h. Core temperature should be measured in the recovery room and active warming should be started when patients are hypothermic or if they feel cold. Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart * New York.

Southern Ocean warming due to human influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.

2006-10-01

I show that the latest series of climate models reproduce the observed mid-depth Southern Ocean warming since the 1950s if they include time-varying changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. The remarkable agreement between observations and state-of-the art climate models suggests significant human influence on Southern Ocean temperatures. I also show that climate models that do not include volcanic aerosols produce mid-depth Southern Ocean warming that is nearly double that produced by climate models that do include volcanic aerosols. This implies that the full effect of human-induced warming of the Southern Ocean may yet to be realized.

Forests tend to cool the land surface in the temperate zone: An analysis of the mechanisms controlling radiometric surface temperature change in managed temperate ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoy, P. C.; Katul, G. G.; Juang, J.; Siqueira, M. B.; Novick, K. A.; Essery, R.; Dore, S.; Kolb, T. E.; Montes-Helu, M. C.; Scott, R. L.

2010-12-01

Vegetation is an important control on the surface energy balance and thereby surface temperature. Boreal forests and arctic shrubs are thought to warm the land surface by absorbing more radiation than the vegetation they replace. The surface temperatures of tropical forests tend to be cooler than deforested landscapes due to enhanced evapotranspiration. The effects of reforestation on surface temperature change in the temperate zone is less-certain, but recent modeling efforts suggest forests have a global warming effect. We quantified the mechanisms driving radiometric surface changes following landcover changes using paired ecosystem case studies from the Ameriflux database with energy balance models of varying complexity. Results confirm previous findings that deciduous and coniferous forests in the southeastern U.S. are ca. 1 °C cooler than an adjacent field on an annual basis because aerodynamic/ecophysiological cooling of 2-3 °C outweighs an albedo-related warming of <1 °C. A 50-70% reduction in the aerodynamic resistance to sensible and latent heat exchange in the forests dominated the cooling effect. A grassland ecosystem that succeeded a stand-replacing ponderosa pine fire was ca. 1 °C warmer than unburned stands because a 1.5 °C aerodynamic warming offset a slight surface cooling due to greater albedo and soil heat flux. An ecosystem dominated by mesquite shrub encroachment was nearly 2 °C warmer than a native grassland ecosystem as aerodynamic and albedo-related warming outweighed a small cooling effect due to changes in soil heat flux. The forested ecosystems in these case studies are documented to have higher carbon uptake than the non-forested systems. Results suggest that temperate forests tend to cool the land surface and suggest that previous model-based findings that forests warm the Earth’s surface globally should be reconsidered.Changes to radiometric surface temperature (K) following changes in vegetation using paired ecosystem case studies C4 grassland and shrub ecosystem surface temperatures were adjusted for differences in air temperature across sites.

Competing influences of greenhouse warming and aerosols on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William Ka-Ming; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-05-01

In this paper, we have compared and contrasted competing influences of greenhouse gases (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall based on CMIP5 historical simulations. Under GHG-only forcing, the land warms much faster than the ocean, magnifying the pre-industrial climatological land-ocean thermal contrast and hemispheric asymmetry, i.e., warmer northern than southern hemisphere. A steady increasing warm-ocean-warmer-land (WOWL) trend has been in effect since the 1950's substantially increasing moisture transport from adjacent oceans, and enhancing rainfall over the Asian monsoon regions. However, under GHG warming, increased atmospheric stability due to strong reduction in mid-tropospheric and near surface relative humidity coupled to an expanding subsidence areas, associated with the Deep Tropical Squeeze (DTS, Lau and Kim, 2015b) strongly suppress monsoon convection and rainfall over subtropical and extratropical land, leading to a weakening of the Asian monsoon meridional circulation. Increased anthropogenic aerosol emission strongly masks WOWL, by over 60% over the northern hemisphere, negating to a large extent the rainfall increase due to GHG warming, and leading to a further weakening of the monsoon circulation, through increasing atmospheric stability, most likely associated with aerosol solar dimming and semi-direct effects. Overall, we find that GHG exerts stronger positive rainfall sensitivity, but less negative circulation sensitivity in SASM compared to EASM. In contrast, aerosols exert stronger negative impacts on rainfall, but less negative impacts on circulation in EASM compared to SASM.

A systematic review of the effectiveness of warming interventions for women undergoing cesarean section.

PubMed

Munday, Judy; Hines, Sonia; Wallace, Karen; Chang, Anne M; Gibbons, Kristen; Yates, Patsy

2014-12-01

Women undergoing cesarean section are vulnerable to adverse effects associated with inadvertent perioperative hypothermia, but there has been a lack of synthesized evidence for temperature management in this population. This systematic review aimed to synthesize the best available evidence in relation to preventing hypothermia in mothers undergoing cesarean section surgery. Randomized controlled trials meeting the inclusion criteria (adult patients of any ethnic background, with or without comorbidities, undergoing any mode of anesthesia for any type of cesarean section) were eligible for consideration. Active or passive warming interventions versus usual care or placebo, aiming to limit or manage core heat loss in women undergoing cesarean section were considered. The primary outcome was maternal core temperature. A comprehensive search with no language restrictions was undertaken of multiple databases from their inception until May 2012. Two independent reviewers using the standardized critical appraisal instrument for randomized controlled trials from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instruments (JBI-MASTARI) assessed retrieved papers for methodological quality and conducted data collection. Where possible, results were combined in a fixed effects meta-analysis using the Cochrane Collaboration Review Manager software. Due to heterogeneity for one outcome, random effects meta-analysis was also used. A combined total of 719 participants from 12 studies were included. Intravenous fluid warming was found to be effective at maintaining maternal temperature and preventing shivering. Warming devices, including forced air warming and under-body carbon polymer mattresses, were effective at preventing hypothermia. However, effectiveness increased if the devices were applied preoperatively. Preoperative warming devices reduced shivering and improved neonatal temperatures at birth. Intravenous fluid warming did not improve neonatal temperature, and the effectiveness of warming interventions on umbilical pH remains unclear. Intravenous fluid warming by any method improves maternal temperature and reduces shivering during and after cesarean section, as does preoperative body warming. Preoperative warming strategies should be utilized where possible. Preoperative or intraoperative warmed IV fluids should be standard practice. Warming strategies are less effective when intrathecal opioids are administered. Further research is needed to investigate interventions in emergency cesarean section surgery. Larger scale studies using standardized, clinically meaningful temperature measurement time points are required. © 2014 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

2016-12-01

The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Effect of Common Cryoprotectants on Critical Warming Rates and Ice Formation in Aqueous Solutions

PubMed Central

Hopkins, Jesse B.; Badeau, Ryan; Warkentin, Matthew; Thorne, Robert E.

2012-01-01

Ice formation on warming is of comparable or greater importance to ice formation on cooling in determining survival of cryopreserved samples. Critical warming rates required for ice-free warming of vitrified aqueous solutions of glycerol, dimethyl sulfoxide, ethylene glycol, polyethylene glycol 200 and sucrose have been measured for warming rates of order 10 to 104 K/s. Critical warming rates are typically one to three orders of magnitude larger than critical cooling rates. Warming rates vary strongly with cooling rates, perhaps due to the presence of small ice fractions in nominally vitrified samples. Critical warming and cooling rate data spanning orders of magnitude in rates provide rigorous tests of ice nucleation and growth models and their assumed input parameters. Current models with current best estimates for input parameters provide a reasonable account of critical warming rates for glycerol solutions at high concentrations/low rates, but overestimate both critical warming and cooling rates by orders of magnitude at lower concentrations and larger rates. In vitrification protocols, minimizing concentrations of potentially damaging cryoprotectants while minimizing ice formation will require ultrafast warming rates, as well as fast cooling rates to minimize the required warming rates. PMID:22728046

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Alapaty, Kiran; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Zhang, Yuanhang; Nolte, Chris; Eder, Brian; Foley, Kristen; Nagashima, Tatsuya

2014-11-06

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges.

PubMed

Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan; Peng, Shao-Lin

2017-07-01

Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive ( Eupatorium catarium , Mikania micrantha , Biodens pilosa var. radiate , Ageratum conyzoides ) in China, and four are native ( Sonchus arvensis , Senecios candens , Pterocypsela indica , Eupatorium fortunei ). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment ( T c ) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTR sym ), asymmetric warming with increased (DTR inc ) and decreased (DTR dec ) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTR sym and DTR inc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTR sym and DTR inc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTR sym , DTR dec decreased the biomass of both the invasive and native plants, while the asymmetric summer warming treatments (DTR inc and DTR dec ) decreased the biomass of the invasive but not the native plants. In addition, wintertime DTR inc did not enhance the biomass of all the plants relative to DTR sym . Our results were obtained in an unrealistic setting; the growth conditions in chambers (e.g. low light, low herbivory, no competition) are quite different from natural conditions (high light, normal herbivory and competition), which may influence the effects of warming on the seedling establishment and growth of both invasive and native plants. Nonetheless, our work highlights the importance of asymmetric warming, particularly in regards to the comparison with the effects of symmetric warming on both invasive and native plants. Conclusions regarding the effects of future warming should be made cautiously because warming with different DTRs may suggest different implications for invasion, and effects of warming may be different in different seasons.

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

1980-01-01

Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

2015-01-01

Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed

Nabi, Sa; Qader, Ss

2009-03-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards.

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Effect of simulated climate warming on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis in copper contaminated soil.

PubMed

Guan, Ming; Jin, Zexin; Li, Junmin; Pan, Xiaocui; Wang, Suizi; Li, Yuelin

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and Cu on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis grown in soils amended with four Cu concentrations (0, 50, 500, and 1000 mg kg(-1)) under ambient temperature and slight warming. At the same Cu concentration, the height, shoot dry weight, total plant dry weight, and root morphological parameters such as length, surface area and tip number of E. haichowensis increased due to the slight warming. The net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, light use efficiency were also higher under the slight warming than under ambient temperature. The increased Cu concentrations, total Cu uptake, bioaccumulation factors and tolerance indexes of shoots and roots were also observed at the slight warming. The shoot dry weight, root dry weight, total plant dry weight and the bioaccumulation factors of shoots and roots at 50 mg Cu kg(-1) were significantly higher than those at 500 and 1000 mg Cu kg(-1) under the slight warming. Therefore, the climate warming may improve the ability of E. haichowensis to phytoremediate Cu-contaminated soil, and the ability improvement greatly depended on the Cu concentrations in soils.

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Effects of a controlled freeze-thaw event on dissolved and colloidal soil organic matter.

PubMed

Kim, Eun-Ah; Lee, Ha Kyung; Choi, Jung Hyun

2017-01-01

This study investigated the effects of the freezing and thawing that accompany the warming process on the composition of the soil organic matter in the dissolved and colloidal fractions. Temperate soil samples were incubated in a refrigerator at 2 °C for 4 weeks and compared with those frozen at -20 °C in the second week followed by thawing at 2 °C to study a freeze-thaw effect with minimal effect from the thawing temperature. The freeze-thaw group was compared with those incubated at 25 °C in the last week to investigate a warming effect after thawing. Thawing at 2 °C after freezing at -20 °C increased the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), but decreased colloidal Ca. The subsequent warming condition greatly increased both DOC and colloidal Ca. The colloidal organic carbon (COC) and dissolved Ca showed rather subtle changes in response to the freeze-thaw and warming treatments compared to the changes in DOC and colloidal Ca. The fluorescence excitation-emission matrix (EEM) and Fourier transformation-infrared spectrometry (FT-IR) results showed that the freeze-thaw and warming treatments gave the opposite effects on the compositions of dissolved humic-like substances, polysaccharides or silicates, and aliphatic alcohols. A principal component analysis (PCA) with the DOC, fluorescence EEM, and FT-IR spectra produced two principal components that successfully distinguished the effects of the freeze-thaw and warming treatments. Due to the contrasting effects of the freeze-thaw and warming treatments, the overall effects of freeze-thaw events in nature on the dissolved and colloidal soil organic matter could vary depending on the thawing temperature.

Effects of Arctic geoengineering on precipitation in the tropical monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nalam, Aditya; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

2017-07-01

Arctic geoengineering wherein sunlight absorption is reduced only in the Arctic has been suggested as a remedial measure to counteract the on-going rapid climate change in the Arctic. Several modeling studies have shown that Arctic geoengineering can minimize Arctic warming but will shift the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward, unless offset by comparable geoengineering in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigate and quantify the implications of this ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering for the global monsoon regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels leads to a warming of 6 K in the Arctic region and precipitation in the monsoon regions increases by up to 15%. In our Arctic geoengineering simulation which illustrates a plausible latitudinal distribution of the reduction in sunlight, an addition of sulfate aerosols (11 Mt) in the Arctic stratosphere nearly offsets the Arctic warming due to CO2 doubling but this shifts the ITCZ southward by 1.5° relative to the pre-industrial climate. The combined effect from this shift and the residual CO2-induced climate change in the tropics is a decrease/increase in annual mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere/Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions by up to -12/+17%. Polar geoengineering where sulfate aerosols are prescribed in both the Arctic (10 Mt) and Antarctic (8 Mt) nearly offsets the ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering, but there is still a residual precipitation increase (up to 7%) in most monsoon regions associated with the residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics. The ITCZ shift due to our Global geoengineering simulation, where aerosols (20 Mt) are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and the precipitation changes in most monsoon regions are within ±2% as the residual CO2-induced warming in the tropics is also much less than in Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Further, global geoengineering nearly offsets the Arctic warming. Based on our results we infer that Arctic geoengineering leads to ITCZ shift and leaves residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics resulting in substantial precipitation decreases (increases) in the Northern (Southern) hemisphere monsoon regions.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important negative feedback to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Aerosol Indirect Effect on Warm Clouds over Eastern China Using Combined CALIOP and MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Wang, Fu; Huang, Jingfeng; Li, Xiaowen

2015-04-01

Aerosol, one of key components of the climate system, is highly variable, both temporally and spatially. It often exerts great influences on the cloud-precipitation chain processes by serving as CCN/IN, altering cloud microphysics and its life cycle. Yet, the aerosol indirect effect on clouds remains largely unknown, because the initial changes in clouds due to aerosols may be enhanced or dampened by such feedback processes as modified cloud dynamics, or evaporation of the smaller droplets due to the competition for water vapor. In this study, we attempted to quantify the aerosol effects on warm cloud over eastern China, based on near-simultaneous retrievals from MODIS/AQUA, CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CLOUDSAT during the period 2006 to 2010. The seasonality of aerosol from ground-based PM10 is quite different from that estimated from MODIS AOD. This result is corroborated by lower level profile of aerosol occurrence frequency from CALIOP, indicating the significant role CALIOP could play in aerosol-cloud interaction. The combined use of CALIOP and CPR facilitate the process to exactly determine the (vertical) position of warm cloud relative to aerosol, out of six scenarios in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status, which shows as follows: AO (Aerosol only), CO (Cloud only), SASC (Single aerosol-single cloud), SADC (single aerosol-double cloud), DASC (double aerosol-single cloud), and others. Results shows that about 54% of all the cases belong to mixed status, among all the collocated aerosol-cloud cases. Under mixed condition, a boomerang shape is observed, i.e., reduced cloud droplet radius (CDR) is associated with increasing aerosol at moderate aerosol pollution (AOD<0.4), becoming saturated at AOD of 0.5, followed by an increase in CDR with aerosol. In contrast, there is no such boomerang shape found for (aerosol-cloud) separated cases. We categorize dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets to figure out how the boomerang shape varies with season. For moderate aerosol loading (AOD<0.4), the effect on the droplet size for the "Mixed" cases is greater during cold season (denoted by a large slope), as compared with that during warm season. It is likely associated with an increase in the emission of light absorbing aerosol like smoke (black carbon), mainly caused by coal-fired heating during the cold season in China. As expected, the sensitivity of CDR to AOD is much weaker for "Separated" cases, irrespective of warm or cold seasons, indicating no real aerosol indirect effect occurring in this case. In contrast, for heavy aerosol loading (AOD>0.4), an increasing CDR with AOD can be seen in "Mixed" scenario during the warm season. Conversely, a closer look at the responses of CDR during the cold season shows that CDR decreases with AOD, although the strength is not much large. Therefore, we argue that cloud droplet size decreases with aerosol loading during cold season, irrespective of moderate or heavy atmospheric pollution. Finally, we discuss the possible factors that may influence the aerosol indirect effects on warm clouds investigated here. For instance, aerosol-cloud interaction conundrum might be affected by aerosol humidification, which is the case for MODIS AOD during warm seasons. But this issue can be partly overcome by categorizing dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets, representing different ambient humidity condition in the atmosphere. The different boomerang shapes observed during various seasons, particularly after transition zone due to droplet saturation effect, have great implications for climate forcing by aerosol in eastern China.

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

PubMed

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-02-26

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium.

Influence of global warming on western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensities during 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young; Yang, Se-Hwan; Elsner, James

2017-04-01

The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Niño, global warmth, and record-setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the 'blasting' effect and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Niño is negligible. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

Research Spotlight: Corals expanding poleward due to warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-04-01

Corals are important organisms for ecosystems and are sensitive indicators of the effects of climate warming. While corals are bleaching and dying in tropical areas due to climate warming, a new study shows that in temperate areas they are expanding their range poleward as water temperatures increase. Yamano et al. used 80 years of records to study the range of corals around Japan. Sea surface temperatures have risen in these temperate areas during that time. They found that four of the nine species of coral they studied expanded their range northward since the 1930s, while none had its range shrink southward. The corals expanded northward as quickly as 14 kilometers per year. The study suggests that rapid modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be taking place. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474, 2011)

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades.

PubMed

Bjorkman, Anne D; Elmendorf, Sarah C; Beamish, Alison L; Vellend, Mark; Henry, Gregory H R

2015-12-01

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long-term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21-year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05-0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species - especially for early-flowering species - while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later-flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species' phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anthropogenic effects on the subsurface thermal and groundwater environments in Osaka, Japan and Bangkok, Thailand.

PubMed

Taniguchi, Makoto; Shimada, Jun; Fukuda, Yoichi; Yamano, Makoto; Onodera, Shin-ichi; Kaneko, Shinji; Yoshikoshi, Akihisa

2009-04-15

Anthropogenic effects in both Osaka and Bangkok were evaluated to compare the relationships between subsurface environment and the development stage of both cities. Subsurface thermal anomalies due to heat island effects were found in both cities. The Surface Warming Index (SWI), the departure depth from the steady geothermal gradient, was used as an indicator of the heat island effect. SWI increases (deeper) with the magnitude of heat island effect and the elapsed time starting from the surface warming. Distributions of subsurface thermal anomalies due to the heat island effect agreed well with the distribution of changes in air temperature due to the same process, which is described by the distribution of population density in both Osaka and Bangkok. Different time lags between groundwater depression and subsidence in the two cities was found. This is attributed to differences in hydrogeologic characters, such as porosity and hydraulic conductivity. We find that differences in subsurface degradations in Osaka and Bangkok, including subsurface thermal anomalies, groundwater depression, and land subsidence, depends on the difference of the development stage of urbanization and hydrogeological characters.

Effects of growth temperature and winter duration on leaf phenology of a spring ephemeral (Gagea lutea) and a summergreen forb (Maianthemum dilatatum).

PubMed

Yoshie, Fumio

2008-09-01

Effects of growth temperature and winter duration on leaf longevity were compared between a spring ephemeral, Gagea lutea, and a forest summergreen forb, Maianthemum dilatatum. The plants were grown at day/night temperatures of 25/20 degrees C and 15/10 degrees C after a chilling treatment for variable periods at 2 degrees C. The temperature regime of 25/20 degrees C was much higher than the mean air temperatures for both species in their native habitats. Warm temperature of 25/20 degrees C and/or long chilling treatment shortened leaf longevity in G. lutea, but not in M. dilatatum. The response of G. lutea was consistent with that reported for other spring ephemerals. Air temperature increases as the vegetative season progresses. The decrease in leaf longevity in G. lutea under warm temperature condition ensures leaf senescence in summer, an unfavorable season for its growth. This also implies that early leaf senescence could occur in years with early summers. Warm spring temperatures have been shown to accelerate the leafing-out of forest trees. The decrease in leaf longevity due to warm temperature helps synchronize the period of leaf senescence roughly with the time of the forest canopy leaf-out. Prolonged winter due to late snowmelt has been shown to shorten the vegetative period for spring ephemerals. The decrease in leaf longevity due to long chilling treatment would correspond with this shortened vegetative period.

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun

2017-08-01

This study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel-averaged Niño3 skewness during December-February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

The effect of massage on acceleration and sprint performance in track & field athletes.

PubMed

Moran, Ryan N; Hauth, John M; Rabena, Robert

2018-02-01

To examine the acute effects of pre-competition massage on acceleration and sprint performance in collegiate track and field athletes. Seventeen collegiate male (n = 9) and female (N = 8) track and field athletes participated in the study. Athletes were assigned to a counterbalanced, repeated measures designed experiment testing four treatment conditions of a pre-competition massage, dynamic warm-up, combination of a massage and warm-up, and a placebo ultrasound. The reliability between treatments was very high (ICC range: 0.94-0.98) and displayed a high internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.96). Inter-item correlations for treatments were strong at all time intervals (20-m r = 0.74-0.90; 30-m r = 0.87-0.95; 60-m r = 0.88-0.95). There were no significant differences between the four treatments and performance (p = 0.70). Massage decreased 60-meter sprint performance in comparison to the traditional warm-up, although the combination of the massage and warm-up appeared to have no greater difference than the warm-up alone. Massage prior to competition remains questionable due to a lack of effectiveness in improving sprint performance. Further, pre-competition massage may not be more effective as a pre-event modality, over a traditional warm-up. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation.

PubMed

Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Äijälä, M; Artaxo, P; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Ehn, M; Gilardoni, S; Heikkinen, L; Kulmala, M; Petäjä, T; Reddington, C L S; Rizzo, L V; Swietlicki, E; Vignati, E; Wilson, C

2018-01-11

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m -2 ) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO 2 , surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

Effects of Substrate Addition on Soil Respiratory Carbon Release Under Long-Term Warming and Clipping in a Tallgrass Prairie

PubMed Central

Jia, Xiaohong; Zhou, Xuhui; Luo, Yiqi; Xue, Kai; Xue, Xian; Xu, Xia; Yang, Yuanhe; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong

2014-01-01

Regulatory mechanisms of soil respiratory carbon (C) release induced by substrates (i.e., plant derived substrates) are critical for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, but the mechanisms are not well understood. In this study, we sampled soils from a long-term field manipulative experiment and conducted a laboratory incubation to explore the role of substrate supply in regulating the differences in soil C release among the experimental treatments, including control, warming, clipping, and warming plus clipping. Three types of substrates (glucose, C3 and C4 plant materials) were added with an amount equal to 1% of soil dry weight under the four treatments. We found that the addition of all three substrates significantly stimulated soil respiratory C release in all four warming and clipping treatments. In soils without substrate addition, warming significantly stimulated soil C release but clipping decreased it. However, additions of glucose and C3 plant materials (C3 addition) offset the warming effects, whereas C4 addition still showed the warming-induced stimulation of soil C release. Our results suggest that long-term warming may inhibit microbial capacity for decomposition of C3 litter but may enhance it for decomposition of C4 litter. Such warming-induced adaptation of microbial communities may weaken the positive C-cycle feedback to warming due to increased proportion of C4 species in plant community and decreased litter quality. In contrast, clipping may weaken microbial capacity for warming-induced decomposition of C4 litter but may enhance it for C3 litter. Warming- and clipping-induced shifts in microbial metabolic capacity may be strongly associated with changes in plant species composition and could substantially influence soil C dynamics in response to global change. PMID:25490701

Effects of substrate addition on soil respiratory carbon release under long-term warming and clipping in a tallgrass prairie.

PubMed

Jia, Xiaohong; Zhou, Xuhui; Luo, Yiqi; Xue, Kai; Xue, Xian; Xu, Xia; Yang, Yuanhe; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong

2014-01-01

Regulatory mechanisms of soil respiratory carbon (C) release induced by substrates (i.e., plant derived substrates) are critical for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, but the mechanisms are not well understood. In this study, we sampled soils from a long-term field manipulative experiment and conducted a laboratory incubation to explore the role of substrate supply in regulating the differences in soil C release among the experimental treatments, including control, warming, clipping, and warming plus clipping. Three types of substrates (glucose, C3 and C4 plant materials) were added with an amount equal to 1% of soil dry weight under the four treatments. We found that the addition of all three substrates significantly stimulated soil respiratory C release in all four warming and clipping treatments. In soils without substrate addition, warming significantly stimulated soil C release but clipping decreased it. However, additions of glucose and C3 plant materials (C3 addition) offset the warming effects, whereas C4 addition still showed the warming-induced stimulation of soil C release. Our results suggest that long-term warming may inhibit microbial capacity for decomposition of C3 litter but may enhance it for decomposition of C4 litter. Such warming-induced adaptation of microbial communities may weaken the positive C-cycle feedback to warming due to increased proportion of C4 species in plant community and decreased litter quality. In contrast, clipping may weaken microbial capacity for warming-induced decomposition of C4 litter but may enhance it for C3 litter. Warming- and clipping-induced shifts in microbial metabolic capacity may be strongly associated with changes in plant species composition and could substantially influence soil C dynamics in response to global change.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed Central

Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

2009-01-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

Light accelerates plant responses to warming.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; De Schrijver, An; Coomes, David A; Hermy, Martin; Vangansbeke, Pieter; Verheyen, Kris

2015-08-17

Competition for light has profound effects on plant performance in virtually all terrestrial ecosystems. Nowhere is this more evident than in forests, where trees create environmental heterogeneity that shapes the dynamics of forest-floor communities(1-3). Observational evidence suggests that biotic responses to both anthropogenic global warming and nitrogen pollution may be attenuated by the shading effects of trees and shrubs(4-9). Here we show experimentally that tree shade is slowing down changes in below-canopy communities due to warming. We manipulated levels of photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and nitrogen, alone and in combination, in a temperate forest understorey over a 3-year period, and monitored the composition of the understorey community. Light addition, but not nitrogen enrichment, accelerated directional plant community responses to warming, increasing the dominance of warmth-preferring taxa over cold-tolerant plants (a process described as thermophilization(6,10-12)). Tall, competitive plants took greatest advantage of the combination of elevated temperature and light. Warming of the forest floor did not result in strong community thermophilization unless light was also increased. Our findings suggest that the maintenance of locally closed canopy conditions could reduce, at least temporarily, warming-induced changes in forest floor plant communities.

The effects of aircraft on climate and pollution. Part II: 20-year impacts of exhaust from all commercial aircraft worldwide treated individually at the subgrid scale.

PubMed

Jacobson, M Z; Wilkerson, J T; Naiman, A D; Lele, S K

2013-01-01

This study examines the 20-year impacts of emissions from all commercial aircraft flights worldwide on climate, cloudiness, and atmospheric composition. Aircraft emissions from each individual flight worldwide were modeled to evolve from the subgrid to grid scale with the global model described and evaluated in Part I of this study. Simulations with and without aircraft emissions were run for 20 years. Aircraft emissions were found to be responsible for -6% of Arctic surface global warming to date, -1.3% of total surface global warming, and -4% of global upper tropospheric warming. Arctic warming due to aircraft slightly decreased Arctic sea ice area. Longer simulations should result in more warming due to the further increase in CO2. Aircraft increased atmospheric stability below cruise altitude and decreased it above cruise altitude. The increase in stability decreased cumulus convection in favor of increased stratiform cloudiness. Aircraft increased total cloud fraction on average. Aircraft increased surface and upper tropospheric ozone by -0.4% and -2.5%, respectively and surface and upper-tropospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) by -0.1% and -5%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased tropospheric OH, decreasing column CO and CH4 by -1.7% and -0.9%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased human mortality worldwide by -620 (-240 to 4770) deaths per year, with half due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5).

Ocean acidification and global warming impair shark hunting behaviour and growth.

PubMed

Pistevos, Jennifer C A; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Rossi, Tullio; Olmos, Maxime; Connell, Sean D

2015-11-12

Alterations in predation pressure can have large effects on trophically-structured systems. Modification of predator behaviour via ocean warming has been assessed by laboratory experimentation and metabolic theory. However, the influence of ocean acidification with ocean warming remains largely unexplored for mesopredators, including experimental assessments that incorporate key components of the assemblages in which animals naturally live. We employ a combination of long-term laboratory and mesocosm experiments containing natural prey and habitat to assess how warming and acidification affect the development, growth, and hunting behaviour in sharks. Although embryonic development was faster due to temperature, elevated temperature and CO2 had detrimental effects on sharks by not only increasing energetic demands, but also by decreasing metabolic efficiency and reducing their ability to locate food through olfaction. The combination of these effects led to considerable reductions in growth rates of sharks held in natural mesocosms with elevated CO2, either alone or in combination with higher temperature. Our results suggest a more complex reality for predators, where ocean acidification reduces their ability to effectively hunt and exert strong top-down control over food webs.

Ocean acidification and global warming impair shark hunting behaviour and growth

PubMed Central

Pistevos, Jennifer C. A.; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Rossi, Tullio; Olmos, Maxime; Connell, Sean D.

2015-01-01

Alterations in predation pressure can have large effects on trophically-structured systems. Modification of predator behaviour via ocean warming has been assessed by laboratory experimentation and metabolic theory. However, the influence of ocean acidification with ocean warming remains largely unexplored for mesopredators, including experimental assessments that incorporate key components of the assemblages in which animals naturally live. We employ a combination of long-term laboratory and mesocosm experiments containing natural prey and habitat to assess how warming and acidification affect the development, growth, and hunting behaviour in sharks. Although embryonic development was faster due to temperature, elevated temperature and CO2 had detrimental effects on sharks by not only increasing energetic demands, but also by decreasing metabolic efficiency and reducing their ability to locate food through olfaction. The combination of these effects led to considerable reductions in growth rates of sharks held in natural mesocosms with elevated CO2, either alone or in combination with higher temperature. Our results suggest a more complex reality for predators, where ocean acidification reduces their ability to effectively hunt and exert strong top-down control over food webs. PMID:26559327

Mitigation benefits of forestation greatly varies on short spatial scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakir, Dan; Rotenberg, Eyal; Rohatin, Shani; Ramati, Efrat; Asaf, David; Dicken, Uri

2016-04-01

Mitigation of global warming by forestation is controversial because of its linkage to increasing surface energy load and associated surface warming. Such tradeoffs between cooling associated with carbon sequestration and warming associated with radiative effects have been considered predominantly on large spatial scales, indicating benefits of forestation mainly in the tropics but not in the boreal regions. Using mobile laboratory for measuring CO2, water and energy flux in forest and non-forest ecosystem along the climatic gradient in Israel over three years, we show that the balance between cooling and warming effects of forestation can be transformed across small spatial scale. While converting shrubland to pine forest in a semi-arid site (280 mm annual precipitations) requires several decades of carbon sequestration to balance the radiative warming effects, similar land use change under moist Mediterranean conditions (780 mm annual precipitation) just ~200 km away showed reversal of this balance. Specifically, the results indicated that in the study region (semi-arid to humid Mediterranean), net absorb radiation in pine forests is always larger than in open space ecosystems, resulting in surface warming effects (the so-called albedo effect). Similarly, depression of thermal radiation emission, mainly due canopy skin surface cooling associated with the 'convector effect' in forests compared with shrubland ecosystems also appears in all sites. But both effects decrease by about 1/2 in going from the semi-arid to the humid Mediterranean sites, while enhanced productivity of forest compared to grassland increase about fourfold. The results indicate a greater potential for forestation as climate change mitigation strategy than previously assumed.

Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.

2018-05-01

Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.

Temperature adaptation of bacterial communities in experimentally warmed forest soils.

PubMed

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita D; Bååth, Erland

2012-10-01

A detailed understanding of the influence of temperature on soil microbial activity is critical to predict future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and feedbacks to anthropogenic warming. We investigated soils exposed to 3-4 years of continuous 5 °C-warming in a field experiment in a temperate forest. We found that an index for the temperature adaptation of the microbial community, T min for bacterial growth, increased by 0.19 °C per 1 °C rise in temperature, showing a community shift towards one adapted to higher temperature with a higher temperature sensitivity (Q 10(5-15 °C) increased by 0.08 units per 1 °C). Using continuously measured temperature data from the field experiment we modelled in situ bacterial growth. Assuming that warming did not affect resource availability, bacterial growth was modelled to become 60% higher in warmed compared to the control plots, with the effect of temperature adaptation of the community only having a small effect on overall bacterial growth (<5%). However, 3 years of warming decreased bacterial growth, most likely due to substrate depletion because of the initially higher growth in warmed plots. When this was factored in, the result was similar rates of modelled in situ bacterial growth in warmed and control plots after 3 years, despite the temperature difference. We conclude that although temperature adaptation for bacterial growth to higher temperatures was detectable, its influence on annual bacterial growth was minor, and overshadowed by the direct temperature effect on growth rates. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global temperature change potential of nitrogen use in agriculture: A 50-year assessment

PubMed Central

Fagodiya, R. K.; Pathak, H.; Kumar, A.; Bhatia, A.; Jain, N.

2017-01-01

Nitrogen (N) use in agriculture substantially alters global N cycle with the short- and long-term effects on global warming and climate change. It increases emission of nitrous oxide, which contributes 6.2%, while carbon dioxide and methane contribute 76% and 16%, respectively of the global warming. However, N causes cooling due to emission of NOx, which alters concentrations of tropospheric ozone and methane. NOx and NH3 also form aerosols with considerable cooling effects. We studied global temperature change potential (GTP) of N use in agriculture. The GTP due to N2O was 396.67 and 1168.32 Tg CO2e on a 20-year (GTP20) and 439.94 and 1295.78 Tg CO2e on 100-year scale (GTP100) during years 1961 and 2010, respectively. Cooling effects due to N use were 92.14 and 271.39 Tg CO2e (GTP20) and 15.21 and 44.80 Tg CO2e (GTP100) during 1961 and 2010, respectively. Net GTP20 was 369.44 and 1088.15 Tg CO2e and net GTP100 was 429.17 and 1264.06 Tg CO2e during 1961 and 2010, respectively. Thus net GTP20 is lower by 6.9% and GTP100 by 2.4% compared to the GTP considering N2O emission alone. The study shows that both warming and cooling effects should be considered to estimate the GTP of N use. PMID:28322322

Warming weakens facilitative interactions between decomposers and detritivores, and modifies freshwater ecosystem functioning.

PubMed

Bernabé, Tiago N; de Omena, Paula M; Santos, Viviane Piccin Dos; de Siqueira, Virgínia M; de Oliveira, Valéria M; Romero, Gustavo Q

2018-02-27

Warming is among the major drivers of changes in biotic interactions and, in turn, ecosystem functioning. The decomposition process occurs in a chain of facilitative interactions between detritivores and microorganisms. It remains unclear, however, what effect warming may have on the interrelations between detritivores and microorganisms, and the consequences for the functioning of natural freshwater ecosystems. To address these gaps, we performed a field experiment using tank bromeliads and their associated aquatic fauna. We manipulated the presence of bacteria and detritivorous macroinvertebrates (control, "bacteria," and "bacteria + macroinvertebrates") under ambient and warming scenarios, and analyzed the effects on the microorganisms and ecosystem functioning (detritus mass loss, colored dissolved organic matter, and nitrogen flux). We applied antibiotic solution to eliminate or reduce bacteria from control bromeliads. After 60 days incubation, bacterial density was higher in the presence than in the absence of macroinvertebrates. In the absence of macroinvertebrates, temperature did not influence bacterial density. However, in the presence of macroinvertebrates, bacterial density decreased by 54% with warming. The magnitude of the effects of organisms on ecosystem functioning was higher in the combined presence of bacteria and macroinvertebrates. However, warming reduced the overall positive effects of detritivores on bacterial density, which in turn, cascaded down to ecosystem functioning by decreasing decomposition and nitrogen flux. These results show the existence of facilitative mechanisms between bacteria and detritivores in the decomposition process, which might collapse due to warming. Detritivores seem to contribute to nutrient cycling as they facilitate bacterial populations, probably by increasing nutrient input (feces) in the ecosystem. However, increased temperature mitigated these beneficial effects. Our results add to a growing research body that shows that warming can affect the structure of aquatic communities, and highlight the importance of considering the interactive effects between facilitation and climatic drivers on the functioning of freshwater ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sea urchin development in a global change hotspot, potential for southerly migration of thermotolerant propagules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, M.; Selvakumaraswamy, P.; Ho, M. A.; Woolsey, E.; Nguyen, H. D.

2011-03-01

The distribution of the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the southeast Australia global change hot spot where marine ecosystems are warming significantly due to changes in ocean circulation. To address questions on future vulnerabilities, the thermotolerance of the planktonic life phase of H. erythrogramma was investigated in the climate and regionally relevant setting of projected near-future (2100) ocean warming. Experimental treatments ranged from 18 to 26 °C, with 26 °C representing +3-4 °C above recent ambient sea-surface temperatures. Developmental success across all stages (gastrula, 24 h; larva, 72 h; juvenile, 120 h) decreased with increasing temperature. Development was tolerant to a +1-2 °C increase above ambient, but significant deleterious effects were evident at +3-4 °C. However, larvae that developed through the early bottleneck of normal development at 26 °C metamorphosed successfully. The inverse relationship between temperature and planktonic larval duration (PLD) was seen in a 25% decrease in the PLD of H. erythrogramma at 24 and 26 oC. Ocean warming may be advantageous to a subset of larvae through early settlement and reduction of the vulnerable planktonic period. This positive effect of temperature may help buffer the negative effects of ocean warming. In parallel studies with progeny derived from northern (Coffs Harbour) and southern (Sydney) H. erythrogramma, northern embryos had significantly higher thermotolerance. This provides the possibility that H. erythrogramma populations might keep up with a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current. It is uncertain whether H. erythrogramma populations at the northern range of this species, with no source of immigrants, will have the capacity to persist in a warm ocean. Due to its extensive latitudinal distribution, its potential developmental thermotolerance and independence of its lecithotrophic larvae from exogenous food and the need to make a functional skeleton, H. erythrogramma may be particularly robust to ocean change.

Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

PubMed

Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

2013-01-01

During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

Calentamiento global : ¿Efecto invernadero o actividad solar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauas, P. J. D.

Here we discuss some evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the terrestrial climate. We pay particular attention to claims, made by different authors, that global warming is due to an increase in solar activity and not to anthropogenic causes like, mainly, the greenhouse effect. We conclude that, although there are evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the climate at Earth, it seems doubtful that this is the main cause of global warming.

Convective and radiative components of wind chill in sheep: Estimation from meteorological records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, D.; Mount, L. E.

1987-06-01

Wind chill is defined as the excess of sensible heat loss over what would occur at zero wind speed with other conditions unchanged. Wind chill can be broken down into a part that is determined by air temperature and a radiative part that comprises wind-dependent effects on additional long-wave radiative exchange and on solar radiation (by reducing solar warming). Radiative exchange and gain from solar radiation are affected by changes that are produced by wind in both surface and fleece insulations. Coefficients are derived for (a) converting the components of sensible heat exchange (air-temperature-dependent including both convective and associated long-wave radiative, additional long-wave radiative and solar) into the components of the total heat loss that are associated with wind and (b) for calculating equivalent air temperature changes. The coefficients contain terms only in wind speed, wetting of the fleece and fleece depth; these determine the external insulation. Calculation from standard meteorological records, using Plymouth and Aberdeen in 1973 as examples, indicate that in April September 1973 at Plymouth reduction in effective solar warming constituted 28% of the 24-h total wind chill, and 7% in the other months of the year combined; at Aberdeen the corresponding percentages were 25% and 6%. Mean hour-of-day estimates for the months of April and October showed that at midday reduction in solar warming due to wind rose to the order of half the air-temperature-dependent component of wind chill, with a much smaller effect in January. For about six hours at midday in July reduction in solar warming due to wind was similar in magnitude to the air-temperature-dependent component. It is concluded that realistic estimates of wind chill cannot be obtained unless the effect of solar radiation is taken into account. Failure to include solar radiation results not only in omitting solar warming but also in omitting the effects of wind in reducing that warming. The exchange of sensible (non-evaporative) heat loss between a homeothermic animal and its environment can be divided into two parts: one part is due to the temperature difference between the animal and the surrounding air, and the other part is due to additional long-wave radiative exchange between animal and environment and to solar radiation. Both parts of the heat exchange are determined in magnitude by the animal's thermal insulation, which is itself affected by windspeed and wetting. Wind diminishes as animal's external insulation, so increasing heat loss under all conditions when the air temperature is lower than the animal's surface temperature: this effect is termed wind chill. Wind chill has previously been investigated more commonly in relation to man (Burton an Edholm, 1955; Smithson and Baldwin, 1978; Mumford, 1979; Baldwin and Smithson, 1979). This paper is concerned with the separate contributions to wind chill calculated for sheep that can be associated with convective and radiative heat exchanges.

The effect of nitrogen deposition rather than warming on CH4 flux in alpine meadows depends on precipitation variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Genxu, W.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties remain regarding the effects of climate warming and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition on GHG flux in alpine grasslands due to a lack of knowledge about how hydrological characteristics control GHGs fluxes. Therefore, a simulated warming and N fertilization experiment was conducted in a non-wetland (alpine meadow, AM) and a wetland (alpine swamp meadow, SM) of a permafrost region. We measured and analysed the CH4 and N2O fluxes of each treatment during two contrasting hydrological growing seasons. The results showed that: (i) warming increased the CH4 uptake in the AM but had no effect in the SM, and warming increased the N2O emissions from the AM and resulted in a change of the SM from a N2O sink into a source; (ii) N fertilization increased the CH4 uptake of the AM during the dry growing season, and had no effect on the CH4 and N2O fluxes of the SM; and (iii) the interaction between warming and N fertilization increased the CH4 uptake of the AM over the two growing seasons while increasing the CH4 uptake and N2O emissions of the SM during the dry growing season. Our results suggest that (i) the GHG flux of wetland ecosystems is more sensitive to precipitation variations than that of non-wetlands and (ii) precipitation controls the CH4 flux response to increasing N deposition of these alpine meadows.

Warming Effects on Enzyme Activities are Predominant in Sub-surface Soils of an Arctic Tundra Ecosystem over 6-Year Field Manipulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, H.; Seo, J.; Kim, M.; Jung, J. Y.; Lee, Y. K.

2017-12-01

Arctic tundra ecosystems are of great importance because they store a large amount of carbon as un-decomposed organic matter. Global climate change is expected to affect enzyme activities and heterotrophic respiration in Arctic soils, which may accelerate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission through positive biological feedbacks. Unlike laboratory-based incubation experiments, field measurements often show different warming effects on decomposition of organic carbon and releases of GHGs. In the present study, we conducted a field-based warming experiment in Cambridge Bay, Canada (69°07'48″N, 105°03'36″W) by employing passive chambers during growing seasons over 6 years. A suite of enzyme activities (ß-glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, N-acetylglucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase and phenol oxidase), microbial community structure (NGS), microbial abundances (gene copy numbers of bacteria and fungi), and soil chemical properties have been monitored in two depths (0-5 cm and 5-10 cm) of tundra soils, which were exposed to four different treatments (`control', `warming-only', `water-addition only', and both `warming and water-addition'). Phenol oxidase activity increased substantially, and bacterial community structure and abundance changed in the early stage (after 1 year's warming manipulation), but these changes disappeared afterwards. Most hydrolases were enhanced in surface soils by `water-addition only' over the period. However, the long-term effects of warming appeared in sub-surface soils where both `warming only' and `warming and water addition' increased hydrolase activities. Overall results of this study indicate that the warming effects on enzyme activities in surface soils are only short-term (phenol oxidase) or masked by water-limitation (hydrolases). However, hydrolases activities in sub-surface soils are more strongly enhanced than surface soils by warming, probably due to the lack of water limitation. Meanwhile, negative correlations between hydrolase activities and humic fraction of DOC appeared following the sudden increase in phenol oxidase after 1 year's manipulation, suggesting that `enzyme latch' hypothesis is partially responsible for the control of hydrolases in the ecosystem.

Moderate ocean warming mitigates, but more extreme warming exacerbates the impacts of zinc from engineered nanoparticles on a marine larva.

PubMed

Mos, Benjamin; Kaposi, Katrina L; Rose, Andrew L; Kelaher, Brendan; Dworjanyn, Symon A

2017-09-01

There is growing concern about the combined effects of multiple human-induced stressors on biodiversity. In particular, there are substantial knowledge gaps about the combined effects of existing stressors (e.g. pollution) and predicted environmental stress from climate change (e.g. ocean warming). We investigated the impacts of ocean warming and engineered nanoparticles (nano-zinc oxide, nZnO) on larvae of a cosmopolitan tropical sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla. Larval T. gratilla were exposed to all combinations of three temperatures, 25, 27 and 29 °C (current SST and near-future predicted warming of +2 and + 4 °C) and six concentrations of nZnO (0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 mg nZnO·L -1 ). These stressors had strong interactive effects on fertilization, gastrulation and normal development of 5 day old larvae. High concentrations of nZnO had a negative effect, but this impact was less pronounced for sea urchins reared at their preferred temperature of 27 °C compared to 25 or 29 °C. Larval growth was also impacted by combined stress of elevated temperature and nZnO. Subsequent measurement of the dissolution and aggregation of nZnO particles and the direct effect of Zn 2+ ions on larvae, suggest the negative effects of nZnO on larval development and growth were most likely due to Zn 2+ ions. Our results demonstrate that marine larvae may be more resilient to stressors at optimal temperatures and highlight the potential for ocean warming to exacerbate the effects of pollution on marine larvae. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of transient warming of red blood cells for up to 24 h: in vitro characteristics in CPD/saline-adenine-glucose-mannitol environment.

PubMed

Gulliksson, H; Nordahl-Källman, A-S

2014-01-01

There are few studies on transient warming of red blood cells (RBCs). Occasional storage outside restricted temperature range often results in destroying of the RBC unit, even after a short period of time due to national guidelines. This study evaluates the in vitro effects associated with such accidental warming on RBCs stored in saline-adenine-glucose-mannitol (SAGM) and prepared within 8 h after blood collection. This study includes both repeated short-term exposure of RBCs to room temperature for 6 h as wells as warming for either 6, 12, 18 or 24 h after 1 week or after 3 weeks of storage in two separate studies. RBCs were stored for 42 days. We weekly measured pH, K(+) , glucose, lactate, haemolysis, red cell ATP and 2,3-diphosphoglycerate. The lowest individual ATP value observed in any of the groups of warmed units was 2·6 μmol/g haemoglobin. Increased haemolysis in warmed units was noted in two of the studies. None of the individual units exceeded the European maximum limit of 0·8% haemolysis. Our results suggest that quality of RBCs after transient warming will be maintained at acceptable levels specified in standards and in previous studies. However, increased haemolysis was observed when transient warming occurred during the second part of the storage period of 6 weeks suggesting that RBCs are more vulnerable to warming by the end of storage. © 2013 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2008-04-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

PubMed Central

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-01-01

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium. PMID:26981200

An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Södergren, A. Helena; McDonald, Adrian J.; Bodeker, Gregory E.

2017-11-01

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

The effect on Arctic climate of atmospheric meridional energy-transport changes studied based on the CESM climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grand Graversen, Rune

2017-04-01

The Arctic amplification of global warming, and the pronounced Arctic sea-ice retreat constitute some of the most alarming signs of global climate change. These Arctic changes are likely a consequence of a combination of several processes, for instance enhanced uptake of solar radiation in the Arctic due to a decrease of sea ice (the ice-albedo feedback), and increase in the local Arctic greenhouse effect due to enhanced moister flux from lower latitudes. Many of the proposed processes appear to be dependent on each other, for instance an increase in water-vapour advection to the Arctic enhances the greenhouse effect in the Arctic and the longwave radiation to the surface, leading to sea-ice melt and enhancement of the ice-albedo feedback. The effects of albedo changes and other radiative feedbacks have been investigated in earlier studies based on model experiments designed to examine these effects specifically. Here we instead focus on the effects of meridional transport changes into the Arctic, both of moister and dry-static energy. Hence we here present results of model experiments with the CESM climate model designed specifically to extract the effects of the changes of the two transport components. In the CESM model the moister transport to the Arctic increases, whereas the dry-static transport decreases in response to a doubling of CO2. This is in agreement with other model results. The model is now forced with these transport changes of water-vapour and dry-static energy associated with a CO2 doubling. The results show that changes of the water-vapour transport lead to Arctic warming. This is partly a consequence of the ice-albedo feedback due to sea-ice melt caused by the change of the water-vapour advection. The changes of the dry-static transport lead to Arctic cooling, which however is smaller than the warming induced by the water-vapour component. Hence this study support the hypothesis that changes in the atmospheric circulation contribute to the Arctic temperature amplification of the ongoing global warming.

Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

2017-10-01

California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D. L.

2009-12-01

Since both greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds strongly affect outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) with no affect or less affect on solar radiation, respectively, an attempt to delay global warming to buy time for emission reduction strategies to work might naturally target cirrus clouds. Cirrus having optical depths < 3.6 cover 13% of the globe and have a net warming effect on climate, with the coldest cirrus having the strongest warming effect. Roughly 2/3 of predicted global warming is due to the feedback effect of water vapor and clouds from an initial greenhouse gas forcing, and a recent study indicates water vapor and clouds in the upper troposphere (UT) have the greatest impact on climate sensitivity (the equilibrium response of global-mean surface temperature to a CO2 doubling). Thus altering UT water vapor and cirrus may be a good strategy for climate engineering. Cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing via GCM simulations are more negative than -2.8 W m-2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3.7 W m-2). This cirrus engineered net forcing is due to (1) reduced cirrus coverage and (2) reduced upper tropospheric water vapor, due to enhanced ice sedimentation. The implementation of this climate engineering could use the airline industry to disperse the seeding material. Commercial airliners typically fly at temperatures between -40 and -60 deg. C (where homogeneous freezing nucleation dominates). Weather modification research has developed ice nucleating substances that are extremely effective at these cold temperatures, are non-toxic and are relatively inexpensive. The seeding material could be released in both clear and cloudy conditions to build up a background concentration of efficient ice nuclei so that non-contrail cirrus will experience these nuclei and grow larger ice crystals. Flight corridors are denser in the high- and mid-latitudes where global warming is more severe. A risk with any geoengineering experiment is that it could affect climate in unforeseen ways, causing more harm than good. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are 1-2 weeks, the climate might return back to its normal state within a few months after stopping the geoengineering. A drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It may not have many of the draw-backs that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has, such as ozone destruction, decreased solar radiation possibly altering the hydrological cycle with more frequent droughts, greater expense, the creation of a white sky and less solar energy. In addition, modeling studies indicate it would take at least 3 years for the climate system to return to “normal” upon termination of stratospheric geoengineering.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Measuring priming using 14C of respired CO2: effects on respiration source pools and interactions with warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, F. M.; Trumbore, S.

2011-12-01

The role of substrate availability on soil carbon turnover is a critical unknown in predicting future soil carbon stocks. Substrate composition and availability can be altered by land cover change, warming, and nitrogen deposition, which can in turn affect soil carbon stocks through the priming effect. In particular, little is understood about the interaction between warming and changing substrate concentration. We examined the interactions between global change factors and the priming effect using sucrose addition to incubations of soils from two forest Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) sites (Duke and Aspen). In addition to the in situ global change manipulations conducted at these sites, the CO2 fertilization procedure over the decade-long experiment labeled soil carbon pools with fossil-derived carbon (depleted in 14C relative to the background isotope content of soil carbon), allowing us to determine the effect of priming on respiration of soil carbon substrates of different ages. Thus, we used the carbon-13 signature of sucrose-derived CO2 to account for losses of substrate C, and the carbon-14 signature to partition fluxes of soil-derived CO2 between pre-FACE (> 10 y) and FACE derived (< 10 y) carbon sources. At both sites, we observed a positive priming effect-an increase in the rate of soil carbon derived respiration due to sucrose addition. However, the effect of substrate addition on respiratory source pools, as measured by 14C of respiration, varied greatly. At Duke FACE, we observed an increase in 14C content of CO2 of primed soil carbon, whereas at Aspen, we observed no difference. The amount of CO2 released by priming increased with temperature, but was proportionally similar to the amount of increase in basal respiration rates (no differences in Q10). At Duke, both warming and priming served to increase the 14C of respiration, whereas only warming changed 14C of respiration at Aspen. Despite similar overall carbon stocks, differences in the source of the priming effect between the two sites may be due to inherent differences in the relative role of stabilization factors within the soil carbon stock.

Responses of two understory herbs, Maianthemum canadense and Eurybia macrophylla, to experimental forest warming: early emergence is the key to enhanced reproductive output.

PubMed

Jacques, Marie-Hélène; Lapointe, Line; Rice, Karen; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Stefanski, Artur; Reich, Peter B

2015-10-01

Understory herbs might be the most sensitive plant form to global warming in deciduous forests, yet they have been little studied in the context of climate change. A field experiment set up in Minnesota, United States simulated global warming in a forest setting and provided the opportunity to study the responses of Maianthemum canadense and Eurybia macrophylla in their natural environment in interaction with other components of the ecosystem. Effects of +1.7° and +3.4°C treatments on growth, reproduction, phenology, and gas exchange were evaluated along with treatment effects on light, water, and nutrient availability, potential drivers of herb responses. Overall, growth and gas exchanges of these two species were modestly affected by warming. They emerged up to 16 (E. macrophylla) to 17 d (M. canadense) earlier in the heated plots than in control plots, supporting early-season carbon gain under high light conditions before canopy closure. This additional carbon gain in spring likely supported reproduction. Eurybia macrophylla only flowered in the heated plots, and both species had some aspect of reproduction that was highest in the +1.7°C treatment. The reduced reproductive effort in the +3.4°C plots was likely due to reduced soil water availability, counteracting positive effects of warming. Global warming might improve fitness of herbaceous species in deciduous forests, mainly by advancing their spring emergence. However, other impacts of global warming such as drier soils in the summer might partly reduce the carbon gain associated with early emergence. © 2015 Botanical Society of America.

Impact of ocean warming and ocean acidification on larval development and calcification in the sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla.

PubMed

Sheppard Brennand, Hannah; Soars, Natalie; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andrew R; Byrne, Maria

2010-06-29

As the oceans simultaneously warm, acidify and increase in P(CO2), prospects for marine biota are of concern. Calcifying species may find it difficult to produce their skeleton because ocean acidification decreases calcium carbonate saturation and accompanying hypercapnia suppresses metabolism. However, this may be buffered by enhanced growth and metabolism due to warming. We examined the interactive effects of near-future ocean warming and increased acidification/P(CO2) on larval development in the tropical sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla. Larvae were reared in multifactorial experiments in flow-through conditions in all combinations of three temperature and three pH/P(CO2) treatments. Experiments were placed in the setting of projected near future conditions for SE Australia, a global change hot spot. Increased acidity/P(CO2) and decreased carbonate mineral saturation significantly reduced larval growth resulting in decreased skeletal length. Increased temperature (+3 degrees C) stimulated growth, producing significantly bigger larvae across all pH/P(CO2) treatments up to a thermal threshold (+6 degrees C). Increased acidity (-0.3-0.5 pH units) and hypercapnia significantly reduced larval calcification. A +3 degrees C warming diminished the negative effects of acidification and hypercapnia on larval growth. This study of the effects of ocean warming and CO(2) driven acidification on development and calcification of marine invertebrate larvae reared in experimental conditions from the outset of development (fertilization) shows the positive and negative effects of these stressors. In simultaneous exposure to stressors the dwarfing effects of acidification were dominant. Reduction in size of sea urchin larvae in a high P(CO2) ocean would likely impair their performance with negative consequent effects for benthic adult populations.

Impact of Ocean Warming and Ocean Acidification on Larval Development and Calcification in the Sea Urchin Tripneustes gratilla

PubMed Central

Sheppard Brennand, Hannah; Soars, Natalie; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Davis, Andrew R.; Byrne, Maria

2010-01-01

Background As the oceans simultaneously warm, acidify and increase in P CO2, prospects for marine biota are of concern. Calcifying species may find it difficult to produce their skeleton because ocean acidification decreases calcium carbonate saturation and accompanying hypercapnia suppresses metabolism. However, this may be buffered by enhanced growth and metabolism due to warming. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined the interactive effects of near-future ocean warming and increased acidification/P CO2 on larval development in the tropical sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla. Larvae were reared in multifactorial experiments in flow-through conditions in all combinations of three temperature and three pH/P CO2 treatments. Experiments were placed in the setting of projected near future conditions for SE Australia, a global change hot spot. Increased acidity/P CO2 and decreased carbonate mineral saturation significantly reduced larval growth resulting in decreased skeletal length. Increased temperature (+3°C) stimulated growth, producing significantly bigger larvae across all pH/P CO2 treatments up to a thermal threshold (+6°C). Increased acidity (-0.3-0.5 pH units) and hypercapnia significantly reduced larval calcification. A +3°C warming diminished the negative effects of acidification and hypercapnia on larval growth. Conclusions and Significance This study of the effects of ocean warming and CO2 driven acidification on development and calcification of marine invertebrate larvae reared in experimental conditions from the outset of development (fertilization) shows the positive and negative effects of these stressors. In simultaneous exposure to stressors the dwarfing effects of acidification were dominant. Reduction in size of sea urchin larvae in a high P CO2 ocean would likely impair their performance with negative consequent effects for benthic adult populations. PMID:20613879

Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-31

As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

Evaluation of the Committed Carbon Emissions and Global Warming due to the Permafrost Carbon Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbany, Y. F.; Schaefer, K. M.; Jafarov, E. E.; Yumashev, D.; Hope, C.

2017-12-01

We quantify the increase in carbon emissions and temperature due to Permafrost Carbon feedback (PCF), defined as the amplification of anthropogenic warming due to carbon emissions from thawing permafrost (i.e., of near-surface layers to 3 m depth). We simulate the Committed PCF emissions, the cumulative total emissions from thawing permafrost by 2300 for a given global temperature increase by 2100, and investigate the resulting global warming using the Simple Biosphere/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach SiBCASA model. We estimate the committed PCF emissions and warming for the Fifth Assessment Report, Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 using two ensembles of five projections. For the 2 °C warming target of the global climate change treaty, committed PCF emissions increase to 24 Gt C by 2100 and 76 Gt C by 2300 and the committed PCF warming is 0.23 °C by 2300. Our calculations show that as the global temperature increase by 2100 approaches 5.8 °C, the entire stock of frozen carbon thaws out, resulting in maximum committed PCF emissions of 560 Gt C by 2300.

Enhanced Climatic Warming in the Tibetan Plateau Due to Double CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiao-Dong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model (RegCM2) with time-dependent lateral meteorological fields provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO2 simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) has been used to investigate the mechanism of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP (Tibetan Plateau). From our model results, a remarkable tendency of warming increasing with elevation is found for the winter season, and elevation dependency of warming is not clearly recognized in the summer season. This simulated feature of elevation dependency of ground temperature is consistent with observations. Based on an analysis of surface energy budget, the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface plus downward long wave flux reaching the surface shows a strong elevation dependency, and is mostly responsible for enhanced surface warming over the TP. At lower elevations, the precipitation forced by topography is enhanced due to an increase in water vapor supply resulted from a warming in the atmosphere induced by doubling CO2. This precipitation enhancement must be associated with an increase in clouds, which results in a decline in solar flux reaching surface. At higher elevations, large snow depletion is detected in the 2xCO2run. It leads to a decrease in albedo, therefore more solar flux is absorbed at the surface. On the other hand, much more uniform increase in downward long wave flux reaching the surface is found. The combination of these effects (i.e. decrease in solar flux at lower elevations, increase in solar flux at higher elevation and more uniform increase in downward long wave flux) results in elevation dependency of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP.

The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-03-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

2018-01-01

Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

Can Geoengineering Effectively Reduce the Land Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; MacMartin, D.; Moore, J. C.; Ji, D.

2017-12-01

Permafrost, defined as ground that remains at or below 0 C for two or more consecutive years, underlies 24% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. Under recent climate warming, permafrost has begun to thaw, causing changes in ecosystems and impacting northern communities. Using the multiple land model output from the Permafrost Carbon Network and applying 5 commonly used permafrost diagnostic methods, we assess the projected Northern Hemisphere permafrost area under RCP 8.5 scenario. Both the air and soil relative warming change is compared to highlight the soil warming pattern and intensity. Using the multiple Earth System Models output under abrupt 4×CO2, G1, PI-control, G3, G4, and RCP4.5 experiments, a preliminary attempt is also performed to examine the effectiveness of geoengineering schemes on reducing the land warming. Although there is uncertainty in the projected results due to model and method difference, the soil temperature based methods derived permafrost all present an intense decrease by 48% - 68% until 2100. The projected soil temperature by the more physically complicated model shows a different warming pattern compared with the air, which indicates that some potential land process intervene with the land response to atmospheric change. The simulated soil temperature can be effectively cooled down by 2 - 9 degree under G1 compared with abrupt 4×CO2, and by less than 4 degree under G3 and G4 compared with RCP4.5.

Sodium channel slow inactivation as a therapeutic target for myotonia congenita

PubMed Central

Novak, Kevin R; Norman, Jennifer; Mitchell, Jacob R; Pinter, Martin J; Rich, Mark M

2014-01-01

Objective Patients with myotonia congenita have muscle hyperexcitability due to loss-of-function mutations in the chloride channel in skeletal muscle, which causes spontaneous firing of muscle action potentials (myotonia), producing muscle stiffness. In patients, muscle stiffness lessens with exercise, a change known as the warm-up phenomenon. Our goal was to identify the mechanism underlying warm up and to use this information to guide development of novel therapy. Methods To determine the mechanism underlying warm-up, we used a recently discovered drug to eliminate muscle contraction, thus allowing prolonged intracellular recording from individual muscle fibers during induction of warm-up in a mouse model of myotonia congenita. Results Changes in action potentials suggested slow inactivation of sodium channels as an important contributor to warm-up. These data suggested enhancing slow inactivation of sodium channels might offer effective therapy for myotonia. Lacosamide and ranolazine enhance slow inactivation of sodium channels and are FDA-approved for other uses in patients. We compared the efficacy of both drugs to mexiletine, a sodium channel blocker currently used to treat myotonia. In vitro studies suggested both lacosamide and ranolazine were superior to mexiletine. However, in vivo studies in a mouse model of myotonia congenita suggested side effects could limit the efficacy of lacosamide. Ranolazine produced fewer side effects and was as effective as mexiletine at a dose that produced none of mexiletine’s hypoexcitability side effects. Interpretation We conclude ranolazine has excellent therapeutic potential for treatment of patients with myotonia congenita. PMID:25515836

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-01-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions.

PubMed

Zelikova, Tamara J; Hufbauer, Ruth A; Reed, Sasha C; Wertin, Timothy; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-05-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Asian aerosols: current and year 2030 distributions and implications to human health and regional climate change.

PubMed

Carmichael, Gregory R; Adhikary, Bhupesh; Kulkarni, Sarika; D'Allura, Alessio; Tang, Youhua; Streets, David; Zhang, Qiang; Bond, Tami C; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Jamroensan, Aditsuda; Marrapu, Pallavi

2009-08-01

Aerosol distributions in Asia calculated over a 4-year period and constrained by satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are presented. Vast regions in Asia that include > 80% of the population have PM2.5 concentrations that exceed on an annual basis the WHO guideline of 10 microg/m3, often by factors of 2 to 4. These high aerosol loadings also have important radiative effects, causing a significant dimming at the surface, and mask approximately 45% of the warming by greenhouse gases. Black carbon (BC) concentrations are high throughout Asia, representing 5-10% of the total AOD, and contributing significantly to atmospheric warming (its warming potential is approximately 55% of that due to CO2). PM levels and AODs in year 2030, estimated based on simulations that consider future changes in emissions, are used to explore opportunities for win-win strategies built upon addressing air quality and climate change together. It is found that in 2030 the PM2.5 levels in significant parts of Asia will increase and exacerbate health impacts; but the aerosols will have a larger masking effect on radiative forcing, due to a decrease in BC and an increase in SO2 emissions.

Effects of experimental water table and temperature manipulations on ecosystem CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan rich fen

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chivers, M.R.; Turetsky, M.R.; Waddington, J.M.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.

2009-01-01

Peatlands store 30% of the world's terrestrial soil carbon (C) and those located at northern latitudes are expected to experience rapid climate warming. We monitored growing season carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes across a factorial design of in situ water table (control, drought, and flooded plots) and soil warming (control vs. warming via open top chambers) treatments for 2 years in a rich fen located just outside the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest in interior Alaska. The drought (lowered water table position) treatment was a weak sink or small source of atmospheric CO2 compared to the moderate atmospheric CO2 sink at our control. This change in net ecosystem exchange was due to lower gross primary production and light-saturated photosynthesis rather than increased ecosystem respiration. The flooded (raised water table position) treatment was a greater CO2 sink in 2006 due largely to increased early season gross primary production and higher light-saturated photosynthesis. Although flooding did not have substantial effects on rates of ecosystem respiration, this water table treatment had lower maximum respiration rates and a higher temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration than the control plot. Surface soil warming increased both ecosystem respiration and gross primary production by approximately 16% compared to control (ambient temperature) plots, with no net effect on net ecosystem exchange. Results from this rich fen manipulation suggest that fast responses to drought will include reduced ecosystem C storage driven by plant stress, whereas inundation will increase ecosystem C storage by stimulating plant growth. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

PubMed Central

Hollister, Robert D; May, Jeremy L; Kremers, Kelseyann S; Tweedie, Craig E; Oberbauer, Steven F; Liebig, Jennifer A; Botting, Timothy F; Barrett, Robert T; Gregory, Jessica L

2015-01-01

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. PMID:26140204

Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

PubMed

Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

2016-11-01

Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ectomycorrhizal fungal response to warming is linked to poor host performance at the boreal-temperate ecotone.

PubMed

Fernandez, Christopher W; Nguyen, Nhu H; Stefanski, Artur; Han, Ying; Hobbie, Sarah E; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Reich, Peter B; Kennedy, Peter G

2017-04-01

Rising temperatures associated with climate change have been shown to negatively affect the photosynthetic rates of boreal forest tree saplings at their southern range limits. To quantify the responses of ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal communities associated with poorly performing hosts, we sampled the roots of Betula papyrifera and Abies balsamea saplings growing in the B4Warmed (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment. EM fungi on the root systems of both hosts were compared from ambient and +3.4 °C air and soil warmed plots at two sites in northern Minnesota. EM fungal communities were assessed with high-throughput sequencing along with measures of plant photosynthesis, soil temperature, moisture, and nitrogen. Warming selectively altered EM fungal community composition at both the phylum and genus levels, but had no significant effect on EM fungal operational taxonomic unit (OTU) diversity. Notably, warming strongly favored EM Ascomycetes and EM fungi with short-contact hyphal exploration types. Declining host photosynthetic rates were also significantly inversely correlated with EM Ascomycete and EM short-contact exploration type abundance, which may reflect a shift to less carbon demanding fungi due to lower photosynthetic capacity. Given the variation in EM host responses to warming, both within and between ecosystems, better understanding the link between host performance and EM fungal community structure will to clarify how climate change effects cascade belowground. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

2010-09-01

Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Truong, C; Palmé, A E; Felber, F

2007-01-01

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.

Impact of regional climate change on human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

2005-11-01

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

Impact of regional climate change on human health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

2005-11-17

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

Coarsening of AA6013-T6 Precipitates During Sheet Warm Forming Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ciano, M.; DiCecco, S.; Esmaeili, S.; Wells, M. A.; Worswick, M. J.

2018-03-01

The use of warm forming for AA6xxx-T6 sheet is of interest to improve its formability; however, the effect warm forming may have on the coarsening of precipitates and the mechanical strength of these sheets has not been well studied. In this research, the coarsening behavior of AA6013-T6 precipitates has been explored, in the temperature range of 200-300 °C, and time of 30 s up to 50 h. Additionally, the effect of warm deformation on coarsening behavior was explored using: (1) simulated warm forming tests in a Gleeble thermo-mechanical simulator and (2) bi-axial warm deformation tests. Using a strong obstacle model to describe the yield strength (YS) evolution of the AA6013-T6 material, and a Lifshitz, Slyozov, and Wagner (LSW) particle coarsening law to describe the change in precipitate size with time, the coarsening kinetics were modeled for this alloy. The coarsening kinetics in the range of 220-300 °C followed a trend similar to that previously found for AA6111 for the 180-220 °C range. There was strong evidence that coarsening kinetics were not altered due to warm deformation above 220 °C. For warm forming between 200 and 220 °C, the YS of the AA6013-T6 material increased slightly, which could be attributed to strain hardening during warm deformation. Finally, a non-isothermal coarsening model was used to assess the potential reduction in the YS of AA6013-T6 for practical processing conditions related to auto-body manufacturing. The model calculations showed that 90% of the original AA6013-T6 YS could be maintained, for warm forming temperatures up to 280 °C, if the heating schedule used to get the part to the warm forming temperature was limited to 1 min.

The effect of temperature and thermal acclimation on the sustainable performance of swimming scup.

PubMed

Rome, Lawrence C

2007-11-29

There is a significant reduction in overall maximum power output of muscle at low temperatures due to reduced steady-state (i.e. maximum activation) power-generating capabilities of muscle. However, during cyclical locomotion, a further reduction in power is due to the interplay between non-steady-state contractile properties of muscle (i.e. rates of activation and relaxation) and the stimulation and the length-change pattern muscle undergoes in vivo. In particular, even though the relaxation rate of scup red muscle is slowed greatly at cold temperatures (10 degrees C), warm-acclimated scup swim with the same stimulus duty cycles at cold as they do at warm temperature, not affording slow-relaxing muscle any additional time to relax. Hence, at 10 degrees C, red muscle generates extremely low or negative work in most parts of the body, at all but the slowest swimming speeds. Do scup shorten their stimulation duration and increase muscle relaxation rate during cold acclimation? At 10 degrees C, electromyography (EMG) duty cycles were 18% shorter in cold-acclimated scup than in warm-acclimated scup. But contrary to the expectations, the red muscle did not have a faster relaxation rate, rather, cold-acclimated muscle had an approximately 50% faster activation rate. By driving cold- and warm-acclimated muscle through cold- and warm-acclimated conditions, we found a very large increase in red muscle power during swimming at 10 degrees C. As expected, reducing stimulation duration markedly increased power output. However, the increased rate of activation alone produced an even greater effect. Hence, to fully understand thermal acclimation, it is necessary to examine the whole system under realistic physiological conditions.

Ocean warming increases threat of invasive species in a marine fouling community.

PubMed

Sorte, Cascade J B; Williams, Susan L; Zerebecki, Robyn A

2010-08-01

We addressed the potential for climate change to facilitate invasions and precipitate shifts in community composition by testing effects of ocean warming on species in a marine fouling community in Bodega Harbor, Bodega Bay, California, USA. First, we determined that introduced species tolerated significantly higher temperatures than natives, suggesting that climate change will have a disproportionately negative impact on native species. Second, we assessed the temperature dependence of survival and growth by exposing juveniles to an ambient control temperature and increased temperatures predicted by ocean warming scenarios (+3 degrees C and +4.5 degrees C) in laboratory mesocosms. We found that responses differed between species, species origins, and demographic processes. Based on the temperature tolerance, survival, and growth results, we predict that, as ocean temperatures increase, native species will decrease in abundance, whereas introduced species are likely to increase in this system. Facilitation of invasions by climate change may already be underway; locally, invasive dominance has increased concurrent with ocean warming over the past approximately 40 years. We suggest that the effects of climate change on communities can occur via both direct impacts on the diversity and abundance of native species and indirect effects due to increased dominance of introduced species.

Ion acoustic shock waves in plasmas with warm ions and kappa distributed electrons and positrons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hussain, S.; Mahmood, S.; Hafeez Ur-Rehman

2013-06-15

The monotonic and oscillatory ion acoustic shock waves are investigated in electron-positron-ion plasmas (e-p-i) with warm ions (adiabatically heated) and nonthermal kappa distributed electrons and positrons. The dissipation effects are included in the model due to kinematic viscosity of the ions. Using reductive perturbation technique, the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili-Burgers (KPB) equation is derived containing dispersion, dissipation, and diffraction effects (due to perturbation in the transverse direction) in e-p-i plasmas. The analytical solution of KPB equation is obtained by employing tangent hyperbolic (Tanh) method. The analytical condition for the propagation of oscillatory and monotonic shock structures are also discussed in detail. The numericalmore » results of two dimensional monotonic shock structures are obtained for graphical representation. The dependence of shock structures on positron equilibrium density, ion temperature, nonthermal spectral index kappa, and the kinematic viscosity of ions are also discussed.« less

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers.

PubMed

Bravo, Iván; Díaz-de-Mera, Yolanda; Aranda, Alfonso; Moreno, Elena; Nutt, David R; Marston, George

2011-10-14

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves and Associated Synoptic/Mesoscale Drivers Under Anthropogenic Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, M.; Mass, C.

2014-12-01

Though western Oregon and Washington summers are typically mild due to the influence of the nearby Pacific Ocean, this region occasionally experiences heat waves with temperatures in excess of 35ºC. These heat waves can have a substantial impact on this highly populated region, particularly since the population is unaccustomed to and generally unprepared for such conditions. A comprehensive evaluation is needed of past and future heat wave trends in frequency, intensity, and duration. Furthermore, it is important to understand the physical mechanisms of Northwest heat waves and how such mechanisms might change under anthropogenic global warming. Lower-tropospheric heat waves over the west coast of North America are the result of both synoptic and mesoscale factors, the latter requiring high-resolution models (roughly 12-15 km grid spacing) to simulate. Synoptic factors include large-scale warming due to horizontal advection and subsidence, as well as reductions in large-scale cloudiness. An important mesoscale factor is the occurrence of offshore (easterly) flow, resulting in an adiabatically warmed continental air mass spreading over the western lowlands rather than the more usual cool, marine air influence. To fully understand how heat waves will change under AGW, it is necessary to determine the combined impacts of both synoptic and mesoscale effects in a warming world. General Circulation Models (GCM) are generally are too coarse to simulate mesoscale effects realistically and thus may provide unreliable estimates of the frequency and magnitudes of West Coast heat waves. Therefore, to determine the regional implications of global warming, this work made use of long-term, high-resolution WRF simulations, at 36- and 12-km resolution, produced by dynamically downscaling GCM grids. This talk will examine the predicted trends in Pacific Northwest heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency during the 21st century (through 2100). The spatial distribution in the trends in heat waves, and the variability of these trends at different resolutions and among different models will also be described. Finally, changes in the synoptic and mesoscale configurations that drive Pacific Northwest heat waves and the modulating effects of local terrain and land/water contrast will be discussed.

Observed Thermal Impacts of Wind Farms Over Northern Illinois.

PubMed

Slawsky, Lauren M; Zhou, Liming; Baidya Roy, Somnath; Xia, Geng; Vuille, Mathias; Harris, Ronald A

2015-06-25

This paper assesses impacts of three wind farms in northern Illinois using land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites for the period 2003-2013. Changes in LST between two periods (before and after construction of the wind turbines) and between wind farm pixels and nearby non-wind-farm pixels are quantified. An areal mean increase in LST by 0.18-0.39 °C is observed at nighttime over the wind farms, with the geographic distribution of this warming effect generally spatially coupled with the layout of the wind turbines (referred to as the spatial coupling), while there is no apparent impact on daytime LST. The nighttime LST warming effect varies with seasons, with the strongest warming in winter months of December-February, and the tightest spatial coupling in summer months of June-August. Analysis of seasonal variations in wind speed and direction from weather balloon sounding data and Automated Surface Observing System hourly observations from nearby stations suggest stronger winds correspond to seasons with greater warming and larger downwind impacts. The early morning soundings in Illinois are representative of the nighttime boundary layer and exhibit strong temperature inversions across all seasons. The strong and relatively shallow inversion in summer leaves warm air readily available to be mixed down and spatially well coupled with the turbine. Although the warming effect is strongest in winter, the spatial coupling is more erratic and spread out than in summer. These results suggest that the observed warming signal at nighttime is likely due to the net downward transport of heat from warmer air aloft to the surface, caused by the turbulent mixing in the wakes of the spinning turbine rotor blades.

Observed Thermal Impacts of Wind Farms Over Northern Illinois

PubMed Central

Slawsky, Lauren M.; Zhou, Liming; Baidya Roy, Somnath; Xia, Geng; Vuille, Mathias; Harris, Ronald A.

2015-01-01

This paper assesses impacts of three wind farms in northern Illinois using land surface temperature (LST) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites for the period 2003–2013. Changes in LST between two periods (before and after construction of the wind turbines) and between wind farm pixels and nearby non-wind-farm pixels are quantified. An areal mean increase in LST by 0.18–0.39 °C is observed at nighttime over the wind farms, with the geographic distribution of this warming effect generally spatially coupled with the layout of the wind turbines (referred to as the spatial coupling), while there is no apparent impact on daytime LST. The nighttime LST warming effect varies with seasons, with the strongest warming in winter months of December-February, and the tightest spatial coupling in summer months of June-August. Analysis of seasonal variations in wind speed and direction from weather balloon sounding data and Automated Surface Observing System hourly observations from nearby stations suggest stronger winds correspond to seasons with greater warming and larger downwind impacts. The early morning soundings in Illinois are representative of the nighttime boundary layer and exhibit strong temperature inversions across all seasons. The strong and relatively shallow inversion in summer leaves warm air readily available to be mixed down and spatially well coupled with the turbine. Although the warming effect is strongest in winter, the spatial coupling is more erratic and spread out than in summer. These results suggest that the observed warming signal at nighttime is likely due to the net downward transport of heat from warmer air aloft to the surface, caused by the turbulent mixing in the wakes of the spinning turbine rotor blades. PMID:26121613

Evapotranspiration-dominated biogeophysical warming effect of urbanization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Guosong; Dong, Jinwei; Cui, Yaoping; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhai, Jun; He, Tian; Zhou, Yuyu; Xiao, Xiangming

2018-03-01

Given the considerable influences of urbanization on near-surface air temperature (T a ) and surface skin temperature (T s ) at local and regional scales, we investigated the biogeophysical effects of urbanization on T a and T s in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China, a typical rapidly urbanizing area, using the weather research and forecasting model (WRF). Two experiments were conducted using satellite-derived realistic areal fraction land cover data in 2010 and 1990 as well as localized parameters (e.g. albedo and leaf area index). Without considering anthropogenic heat, experimental differences indicated a regional biogeophysical warming of 0.15 °C (0.16 °C) in summer T a (T s ), but a negligible warming in winter T a (T s ). Sensitivity analyses also showed a stronger magnitude of local warming in summer than in winter. Along with an increase of 10% in the urban fraction, local T a (T s ) increases of 0.185 °C (0.335 °C), 0.212 °C (0.464 °C), and 0.140 °C (0.220 °C) were found at annual, summer, and winter scales, respectively, according to a space-for-time substitution method. The sensitivity analyses will be beneficial to get a rough biogeophysical warming estimation of future urbanization projections. Furthermore, a decomposed temperature metric (DTM) method was applied for the attribution analyses of the change in T s induced by urbanization. Our results showed that the decrease in evapotranspiration-induced latent heat played a dominate role in biogeophysical warming due to urbanization in BTH, indicating that increasing green space could alleviate warming effects, especially in summer.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Northern Galápagos Corals Reveal Twentieth Century Warming in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez, Gloria; Cole, Julia E.; Thompson, Diane M.; Tudhope, Alexander W.

2018-02-01

Models and observations disagree regarding sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the eastern tropical Pacific. We present a new Sr/Ca-SST record that spans 1940-2010 from two Wolf Island corals (northern Galápagos). Trend analysis of the Wolf record shows significant warming on multiple timescales, which is also present in several other records and gridded instrumental products. Together, these data sets suggest that most of the eastern tropical Pacific has warmed over the twentieth century. In contrast, recent decades have been characterized by warming during boreal spring and summer (especially north of the equator), and subtropical cooling during boreal fall and winter (especially south of the equator). These SST trends are consistent with the effects of radiative forcing, mitigated by cooling due to wind forcing during boreal winter, as well as intensified upwelling and a strengthened Equatorial Undercurrent.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Discussing the Greenhouse Effect: Children's Collaborative Discourse Reasoning and Conceptual Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mason, Lucia; Santi, Marina

1998-01-01

Investigates fifth-grade students' conceptual changes toward the greenhouse effect and global warming due to sociocognitive interaction developed in small and large group discussion in an authentic classroom context during an environmental education unit. Classroom discussions led the children to integrate new scientific knowledge into their…

Modeling The effect of elevated CO2 and climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the semi-arid Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Changes in evapotranspiration demand due to global warming will have profound impact on irrigation water demand and agricultural productivity. In this study, effects of possible future anthropogenic climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was evaluated. The Penman-Monteith equation was ...

Detection of Warming Effects Due to Industrialization: An Accumulated Intervention Model with an Application in Pohang, Korea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryoo, S. B.; Moon, S. E.

1995-06-01

Modifications of surface air temperature caused by anthropogenic impacts have received much attention recently because of the heightened interest in climatic change. When an industrial area is constructed, resulting in a large-scale anthropogenic heat source, is it possible to detect the warming effect of the heat source? In this paper, the intensity of warming is estimated in the area of the source. A statistical model is suggested to estimate the warming caused by that anthropogenic heat source. The model used in this study is an accumulated intervention (AI) model that is applied to industrial heat perturbations that occurred in the area. To evaluate the AI model performance, the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset. The data used in this study are the monthly mean temperatures at Pohang, Korea. The AI model was developed based on the data for the 38-year period from 1953 to 1990, and the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset for the 2-year period from 1991 to 1992.

The Effects of Adding Elements of Zinc and Magnesium on Ag-Cu Eutectic Alloy for Warming Acupuncture

PubMed Central

Park, Il Song; Kim, Keun Sik; Lee, Min Ho

2013-01-01

The warming acupuncture for hyperthermia therapy is made of STS304. However, its needle point cannot be reached to a desirable temperature due to heat loss caused by low thermal conductivity, and the quantification of stimulation condition and the effective standard establishment of warming acupuncture are required as a heat source. Accordingly, in this study, after Ag-Cu alloys with different composition ratios were casted and then mixed with additives to improve their physical and mechanical properties, the thermal conductivity and biocompatibility of the alloy specimens were evaluated for selecting suitable material. Ag-Cu binary alloys and ternary alloys added 5 wt% Zn or 2 wt% Mg were casted and then cold drawn to manufacture needles for acupuncture, and their physical properties, thermal conductivity, and biocompatibility were evaluated for their potential use in warming acupuncture. The results of this study showed that the physical and mechanical properties of the Ag-Cu alloys were improved by additives and that the thermal conductivity, machinability, and biocompatibility of the Ag-Cu alloys were improved by Mg addition. PMID:24078827

The effects of adding elements of zinc and magnesium on ag-cu eutectic alloy for warming acupuncture.

PubMed

Kim, Yu Kyoung; Park, Il Song; Kim, Keun Sik; Lee, Min Ho

2013-01-01

The warming acupuncture for hyperthermia therapy is made of STS304. However, its needle point cannot be reached to a desirable temperature due to heat loss caused by low thermal conductivity, and the quantification of stimulation condition and the effective standard establishment of warming acupuncture are required as a heat source. Accordingly, in this study, after Ag-Cu alloys with different composition ratios were casted and then mixed with additives to improve their physical and mechanical properties, the thermal conductivity and biocompatibility of the alloy specimens were evaluated for selecting suitable material. Ag-Cu binary alloys and ternary alloys added 5 wt% Zn or 2 wt% Mg were casted and then cold drawn to manufacture needles for acupuncture, and their physical properties, thermal conductivity, and biocompatibility were evaluated for their potential use in warming acupuncture. The results of this study showed that the physical and mechanical properties of the Ag-Cu alloys were improved by additives and that the thermal conductivity, machinability, and biocompatibility of the Ag-Cu alloys were improved by Mg addition.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic. PMID:24963391

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Triggered by Strong Aerosol Emissions in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Kravitz, B.; Rasch, P. J.; Morrison, H.; Solomon, A.

2014-12-01

Previous process-oriented modeling studies have highlighted the dependence of effectiveness of cloud brightening by aerosols on cloud regimes in warm marine boundary layer. Cloud microphysical processes in clouds that contain ice, and hence the mechanisms that drive aerosol-cloud interactions, are more complicated than in warm clouds. Interactions between ice particles and liquid drops add additional levels of complexity to aerosol effects. A cloud-resolving model is used to study aerosol-cloud interactions in the Arctic triggered by strong aerosol emissions, through either geoengineering injection or concentrated sources such as shipping and fires. An updated cloud microphysical scheme with prognostic aerosol and cloud particle numbers is employed. Model simulations are performed in pure super-cooled liquid and mixed-phase clouds, separately, with or without an injection of aerosols into either a clean or a more polluted Arctic boundary layer. Vertical mixing and cloud scavenging of particles injected from the surface is still quite efficient in the less turbulent cold environment. Overall, the injection of aerosols into the Arctic boundary layer can delay the collapse of the boundary layer and increase low-cloud albedo. The pure liquid clouds are more susceptible to the increase in aerosol number concentration than the mixed-phase clouds. Rain production processes are more effectively suppressed by aerosol injection, whereas ice precipitation (snow) is affected less; thus the effectiveness of brightening mixed-phase clouds is lower than for liquid-only clouds. Aerosol injection into a clean boundary layer results in a greater cloud albedo increase than injection into a polluted one, consistent with current knowledge about aerosol-cloud interactions. Unlike previous studies investigating warm clouds, the impact of dynamical feedback due to precipitation changes is small. According to these results, which are dependent upon the representation of ice nucleation processes in the employed microphysical scheme, Arctic geoengineering/shipping could have substantial local radiative effects, but is unlikely to be effective as the sole means of counterbalancing warming due to climate change.

Passive warming effect on soil microbial community and humic substance degradation in maritime Antarctic region.

PubMed

Kim, Dockyu; Park, Ha Ju; Kim, Jung Ho; Youn, Ui Joung; Yang, Yung Hun; Casanova-Katny, Angélica; Vargas, Cristina Muñoz; Venegas, Erick Zagal; Park, Hyun; Hong, Soon Gyu

2018-06-01

Although the maritime Antarctic has undergone rapid warming, the effects on indigenous soil-inhabiting microorganisms are not well known. Passive warming experiments using open-top chamber (OTC) have been performed on the Fildes Peninsula in the maritime Antarctic since 2008. When the soil temperature was measured at a depth of 2-5 cm during the 2013-2015 summer seasons, the mean temperature inside OTC (OTC-In) increased by approximately 0.8 °C compared with outside OTC (OTC-Out), while soil chemical and physical characteristics did not change. Soils (2015 summer) from OTC-In and OTC-Out were subjected to analysis for change in microbial community and degradation rate of humic substances (HS, the largest pool of recalcitrant organic carbon in soil). Archaeal and bacterial communities in OTC-In were minimally affected by warming compared with those in OTC-Out, with archaeal methanogenic Thermoplasmata slightly increased in abundance. The abundance of heterotrophic fungi Ascomycota was significantly altered in OTC-In. Total bacterial and fungal biomass in OTC-In increased by 20% compared to OTC-Out, indicating that this may be due to increased microbial degradation activity for soil organic matter (SOM) including HS, which would result in the release of more low-molecular-weight growth substrates from SOM. Despite the effects of warming on the microbial community over the 8-years-experiments warming did not induce any detectable change in content or structure of polymeric HS. These results suggest that increased temperature may have significant and direct effects on soil microbial communities inhabiting maritime Antarctic and that soil microbes would subsequently provide more available carbon sources for other indigenous microbes. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

2017-12-01

By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that the frequency of ENSO events greatly increases due to global warming, and many more extreme El Niño and La Niña events appear under the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, respectively. This study reconciles the phenomena and mechanisms of different characteristics of ENSO changes in observations and models.

Net primary productivity and rain-use efficiency as affected by warming, altered precipitation, and clipping in a mixed-grass prairie.

PubMed

Xu, Xia; Sherry, Rebecca A; Niu, Shuli; Li, Dejun; Luo, Yiqi

2013-09-01

Grassland productivity in response to climate change and land use is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of climate change and land use on net primary productivity (NPP), NPP partitioning [fBNPP , defined as the fraction of belowground NPP (BNPP) to NPP], and rain-use efficiency (RUE) of NPP, we conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (double and half), and annual clipping in a mixed-grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA since July, 2009. Across the years, warming significantly increased BNPP, fBNPP , and RUEBNPP by an average of 11.6%, 2.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. This indicates that BNPP was more sensitive to warming than aboveground NPP (ANPP) since warming did not change ANPP and RUEANPP much. Double precipitation stimulated ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but suppressed RUEANPP , RUEBNPP , and RUENPP while half precipitation decreased ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but increased RUEANPP , RUEBNPP , and RUENPP . Clipping interacted with altered precipitation in impacting RUEANPP , RUEBNPP , and RUENPP , suggesting land use could confound the effects of precipitation changes on ecosystem processes. Soil moisture was found to be a main factor in regulating variation in ANPP, BNPP, and NPP while soil temperature was the dominant factor influencing fBNPP . These findings suggest that BNPP is critical point to future research. Additionally, results from single-factor manipulative experiments should be treated with caution due to the non-additive interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and land use (clipping). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Catalytic power of enzymes decreases with temperature: New insights for understanding soil C cycling and microbial ecology under warming.

PubMed

Alvarez, Gaël; Shahzad, Tanvir; Andanson, Laurence; Bahn, Michael; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Fontaine, Sébastien

2018-04-23

Most current models of soil C dynamics predict that climate warming will accelerate soil C mineralization, resulting in a long-term CO 2 release and positive feedback to global warming. However, ecosystem warming experiments show that CO 2 loss from warmed soils declines to control levels within a few years. Here, we explore the temperature dependence of enzymatic conversion of polymerized soil organic C (SOC) into assimilable compounds, which is presumed the rate-limiting step of SOC mineralization. Combining literature review, modelling and enzyme assays, we studied the effect of temperature on activity of enzymes considering their thermal inactivation and catalytic activity. We defined the catalytic power of enzymes (E power ) as the cumulative amount of degraded substrate by one unit of enzyme until its complete inactivation. We show a universal pattern of enzyme's thermodynamic properties: activation energy of catalytic activity (EA cat ) < activation energy of thermal inactivation (EA inact ). By investing in stable enzymes (high EA inact ) having high catalytic activity (low EA cat ), microorganisms may maximize the E power of their enzymes. The counterpart of such EAs' hierarchical pattern is the higher relative temperature sensitivity of enzyme inactivation than catalysis, resulting in a reduction in E power under warming. Our findings could explain the decrease with temperature in soil enzyme pools, microbial biomass (MB) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) reported in some warming experiments and studies monitoring the seasonal variation in soil enzymes. They also suggest that a decrease in soil enzyme pools due to their faster inactivation under warming contributes to the observed attenuation of warming effect on soil C mineralization. This testable theory predicts that the ultimate response of SOC degradation to warming can be positive or negative depending on the relative temperature response of E power and microbial production of enzymes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prolonged exposure does not increase soil microbial community compositional response to warming along geothermal gradients.

PubMed

Radujkovic, Dajana; Verbruggen, Erik; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Leblans, Niki I W; Janssens, Ivan A; Vicca, Sara; Weedon, James T

2018-02-01

Global change is expected to affect soil microbial communities through their responsiveness to temperature. It has been proposed that prolonged exposure to elevated temperatures may lead to progressively larger effects on soil microbial community composition. However, due to the relatively short-term nature of most warming experiments, this idea has been challenging to evaluate. The present study took the advantage of natural geothermal gradients (from +1°C to +19°C above ambient) in two subarctic grasslands to test the hypothesis that long-term exposure (>50 years) intensifies the effect of warming on microbial community composition compared to short-term exposure (5-7 years). Community profiles from amplicon sequencing of bacterial and fungal rRNA genes did not support this hypothesis: significant changes relative to ambient were observed only starting from the warming intensity of +9°C in the long term and +7°C/+3°C in the short term, for bacteria and fungi, respectively. Our results suggest that microbial communities in high-latitude grasslands will not undergo lasting shifts in community composition under the warming predicted for the coming 100 years (+2.2°C to +8.3°C). © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Functioning of a Shallow-Water Sediment System during Experimental Warming and Nutrient Enrichment

PubMed Central

Alsterberg, Christian; Sundbäck, Kristina; Hulth, Stefan

2012-01-01

Effects of warming and nutrient enrichment on intact unvegetated shallow-water sediment were investigated for 5 weeks in the autumn under simulated natural field conditions, with a main focus on trophic state and benthic nitrogen cycling. In a flow-through system, sediment was exposed to either seawater at ambient temperature or seawater heated 4°C above ambient, with either natural or nutrient enriched water. Sediment–water fluxes of oxygen and inorganic nutrients, nitrogen mineralization, and denitrification were measured. Warming resulted in an earlier shift to net heterotrophy due to increased community respiration; primary production was not affected by temperature but (slightly) by nutrient enrichment. The heterotrophic state was, however, not further strengthened by warming, but was rather weakened, probably because increased mineralization induced a shortage of labile organic matter. Climate-related warming of seawater during autumn could therefore, in contrast to previous predictions, induce shorter but more intensive heterotrophic periods in shallow-water sediments, followed by longer autotrophic periods. Increased nitrogen mineralization and subsequent effluxes of ammonium during warming suggested a preferential response of organisms driving nitrogen mineralization when compared to sinks of ammonium such as nitrification and algal assimilation. Warming and nutrient enrichment resulted in non-additive effects on nitrogen mineralization and denitrification (synergism), as well as on benthic fluxes of phosphate (antagonism). The mode of interaction appears to be related to the trophic level of the organisms that are the main drivers of the affected processes. Despite the weak response of benthic microalgae to both warming and nutrient enrichment, the assimilation of nitrogen by microalgae was similar in magnitude to rates of nitrogen mineralization. This implies a sustained filter function and retention capacity of nutrients by the sediment. PMID:23240032

Understanding the double peaked El Niño in coupled GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Felicity S.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Brown, Jaclyn N.; Marsland, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

2017-03-01

Coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) simulate a diverse range of El Niño-Southern Oscillation behaviors. "Double peaked" El Niño events—where two separate centers of positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies evolve concurrently in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific—have been evidenced in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 CGCMs and are without precedent in observations. The characteristic CGCM double peaked El Niño may be mistaken for a central Pacific warming event in El Niño composites, shifted westwards due to the cold tongue bias. In results from the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model, we find that the western Pacific warm peak of the double peaked El Niño event emerges due to an excessive westward extension of the climatological cold tongue, displacing the region of strong zonal SST gradients towards the west Pacific. A coincident westward shift in the zonal current anomalies reinforces the western peak in SST anomalies, leading to a zonal separation between the warming effect of zonal advection (in the west Pacific) and that of vertical advection (in the east Pacific). Meridional advection and net surface heat fluxes further drive growth of the western Pacific warm peak. Our results demonstrate that understanding historical CGCM El Niño behaviors is a necessary precursor to interpreting projections of future CGCM El Niño behaviors, such as changes in the frequency of eastern Pacific El Niño events, under global warming scenarios.

Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions.

PubMed

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; Trlica, M J; McMaster, Gregory S; Andales, Allan A; LeCain, Dan R; Morgan, Jack A

2014-06-12

Observations of a longer growing season through earlier plant growth in temperate to polar regions have been thought to be a response to climate warming. However, data from experimental warming studies indicate that many species that initiate leaf growth and flowering earlier also reach seed maturation and senesce earlier, shortening their active and reproductive periods. A conceptual model to explain this apparent contradiction, and an analysis of the effect of elevated CO2--which can delay annual life cycle events--on changing season length, have not been tested. Here we show that experimental warming in a temperate grassland led to a longer growing season through earlier leaf emergence by the first species to leaf, often a grass, and constant or delayed senescence by other species that were the last to senesce, supporting the conceptual model. Elevated CO2 further extended growing, but not reproductive, season length in the warmed grassland by conserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer. Our results suggest that a longer growing season, especially in years or biomes where water is a limiting factor, is not due to warming alone, but also to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations that extend the active period of plant annual life cycles.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Cold and warm swelling of hydrophobic polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Los Rios, Paolo; Caldarelli, Guido

2001-03-01

We introduce a polymer model where the transition from swollen to compact configurations is due to interactions between the monomers and the solvent. These interactions are the origin of the effective attractive interactions between hydrophobic amino acids in proteins. We find that in the low and high temperature phases polymers are swollen, and there is an intermediate phase where the most favorable configurations are compact. We argue that such a model captures in a single framework both the cold and the warm denaturation experimentally detected for thermosensitive polymers and for proteins.

Evaporative cooling enhanced cold storage system

DOEpatents

Carr, Peter

1991-01-01

The invention provides an evaporatively enhanced cold storage system wherein a warm air stream is cooled and the cooled air stream is thereafter passed into contact with a cold storage unit. Moisture is added to the cooled air stream prior to or during contact of the cooled air stream with the cold storage unit to effect enhanced cooling of the cold storage unit due to evaporation of all or a portion of the added moisture. Preferably at least a portion of the added moisture comprises water condensed during the cooling of the warm air stream.

Evaporative cooling enhanced cold storage system

DOEpatents

Carr, P.

1991-10-15

The invention provides an evaporatively enhanced cold storage system wherein a warm air stream is cooled and the cooled air stream is thereafter passed into contact with a cold storage unit. Moisture is added to the cooled air stream prior to or during contact of the cooled air stream with the cold storage unit to effect enhanced cooling of the cold storage unit due to evaporation of all or a portion of the added moisture. Preferably at least a portion of the added moisture comprises water condensed during the cooling of the warm air stream. 3 figures.

Mesoamerican Nephropathy or Global Warming Nephropathy?

PubMed

Roncal-Jimenez, Carlos A; García-Trabanino, Ramon; Wesseling, Catharina; Johnson, Richard J

2016-01-01

An epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown cause has emerged along the Pacific Coast of Central America. The disease primarily affects men working manually outdoors, and the major group affected is sugarcane workers. The disease presents with an asymptomatic rise in serum creatinine that progresses to end-stage renal disease over several years. Renal biopsies show chronic tubulointerstitial disease. While the cause remains unknown, recent studies suggest that it is driven by recurrent dehydration in the hot climate. Potential mechanisms include the development of hyperosmolarity with the activation of the aldose reductase-fructokinase pathway in the proximal tubule leading to local injury and inflammation, and the possibility that renal injury may be the consequence of repeated uricosuria and urate crystal formation as a consequence of both increased generation and urinary concentration, similar to a chronic tumor lysis syndrome. The epidemic is postulated to be increasing due to the effects of global warming. An epidemic of CKD has led to the death of more than 20,000 lives in Central America. The cause is unknown, but appears to be due to recurrent dehydration. Potential mechanisms for injury are renal damage as a consequence of recurrent hyperosmolarity and/or injury to the tubules from repeated episodes of uricosuria. The epidemic of CKD in Mesoamerica may be due to chronic recurrent dehydration as a consequence of global warming and working conditions. This entity may be one of the first major diseases attributed to climate change and the greenhouse effect. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Future warmer seas: increased stress and susceptibility to grazing in seedlings of a marine habitat-forming species.

PubMed

Hernán, Gema; Ortega, María J; Gándara, Alberto M; Castejón, Inés; Terrados, Jorge; Tomas, Fiona

2017-11-01

Increases in seawater temperature are expected to have negative consequences for marine organisms. Beyond individual effects, species-specific differences in thermal tolerance are predicted to modify species interactions and increase the strength of top-down effects, particularly in plant-herbivore interactions. Shifts in trophic interactions will be especially important when affecting habitat-forming species such as seagrasses, as the consequences on their abundance will cascade throughout the food web. Seagrasses are a major component of coastal ecosystems offering important ecosystem services, but are threatened by multiple anthropogenic stressors, including warming. The mechanistic understanding of seagrass responses to warming at multiple scales of organization remains largely unexplored, especially in early-life stages such as seedlings. Yet, these early-life stages are critical for seagrass expansion processes and adaptation to climate change. In this study, we determined the effects of a 3 month experimental exposure to present and predicted mean summer SST of the Mediterranean Sea (25°C, 27°C, and 29°C) on the photophysiology, size, and ecology (i.e., plant-herbivore interactions) of seedlings of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Warming resulted in increased mortality, leaf necrosis, and respiration as well as lower carbohydrate reserves in the seed, the main storage organ in seedlings. Aboveground biomass and root growth were also limited with warming, which could hamper seedling establishment success. Furthermore, warming increased the susceptibility to consumption by grazers, likely due to lower leaf fiber content and thickness. Our results indicate that warming will negatively affect seagrass seedlings through multiple direct and indirect pathways: increased stress, reduced establishment potential, lower storage of carbohydrate reserves, and increased susceptibly to consumption. This work provides a significant step forward in understanding the major mechanisms that will drive the capacity of seagrass seedlings to adapt and survive to warming, highlighting the potential additive effects that herbivory will have on ultimately determining seedling success. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vegetation masking effect on future warming and snow albedo feedback in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia according to MIROC-ESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, Manabu; Takata, Kumiko; Kawamiya, Michio; Watanabe, Shingo

2017-09-01

The Earth system model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth system model (MIROC-ESM), in which the leaf area index (LAI) is calculated interactively with an ecological land model, simulated future changes in the snow water equivalent under the scenario of global warming. Using MIROC-ESM, the effects of the snow albedo feedback (SAF) in a boreal forest region of northern Eurasia were examined under the possible climate future scenario RCP8.5. The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) in spring greatly increases across Siberia and the boreal forest region, whereas the snow cover decreases remarkably only in western Eurasia. The large increase in SAT across Siberia is attributed to strong SAF, which is caused by both the reduced snow-covered fraction and the reduced surface albedo of the snow-covered portion due to the vegetation masking effect in those grid cells. A comparison of the future changes with and without interactive LAI changes shows that in Siberia, the vegetation masking effect increases the spring SAF by about two or three times and enhances the spring warming by approximately 1.5 times. This implies that increases in vegetation biomass in the future are a potential contributing factor to warming trends and that further research on the vegetation masking effect is needed for reliable future projection.

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Small-scale impacts into rock - An evaluation of the effects of target temperature on experimental results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smrekar, S.; Cintala, M. J.; Horz, F.

1986-01-01

A series of cratering and catastrophic fragmentation experiments has been performed, involving the impact of aluminum and stainless-steel spheres into warm (about 298 K) and cold (about 100 K) granodiorite targets. Although some vague hints of a thermal effect might be found in some of the results, in no case was there a substantial difference between the warm and cold series. Since these experiments were well within the strength-dominated regime of impact phenomena, variations due to low target temperatures in more energetic events will probably be negligible. Thus, there appear to be no significant temperature-dependent mechanical effects during impact into solid rock over a wide range of temperatures prevalent in the solar system.

Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincus, R.; Mauritsen, T.

2017-12-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2 and thermal inertia of the ocean, the Earth's climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently-improved estimates of Earth's energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the fifth IPCC assessment report. Compared to pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5K [0.9-3.6, 5-95 percentile] at equilibrium, and of 1.3K [0.9-2.3] within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1K [0.7-1.8]. Conservatively, there is a 32% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5K target set in Paris, and that this will likely be crossed prior to 2053. Regular updates of these observationally-constrained committed warming estimates, though simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and understanding the limitations of the framework is advanced.

Shifting phenology and abundance under experimental warming alters trophic relationships and plant reproductive capacity.

PubMed

Liu, Yinzhan; Reich, Peter B; Li, Guoyong; Sun, Shucun

2011-06-01

Phenological mismatches due to climate change may have important ecological consequences. In a three-year study, phenological shifts due to experimental warming markedly altered trophic relationships between plants and insect herbivores, causing a dramatic decline of reproductive capacity for one of the plant species. In a Tibetan meadow, the gentian (Gentiana formosa) typically flowers after the peak larva density of a noctuid moth (Melanchra pisi) that primarily feeds on a dominant forb (anemone, Anemone trullifolia var. linearis). However, artificial warming of approximately 1.5 degrees C advanced gentian flower phenology and anemone vegetative phenology by a week, but delayed moth larvae emergence by two weeks. The warming increased larval density 10-fold, but decreased anemone density by 30%. The phenological and density shifts under warmed conditions resulted in the insect larvae feeding substantially on the gentian flowers and ovules; there was approximately 100-fold more damage in warmed than in unwarmed chambers. This radically increased trophic connection reduced gentian plant reproduction and likely contributed to its reduced abundance in the warmed chambers.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO[sub 2] and CO[sub 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, Y.J.; Chou, M.D.

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO[sub 2] effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Some general conclusions can be reached. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO[sub 2] emission can presently counteract 50% of the CO[sub 2] greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model,more » 0.15[degrees]C, during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO[sub 2] cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5[degrees]C or 25% for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2[degrees]C for 20% for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be used to validate the presence of the SO[sub 2]-induced cooling. Despite the fact that most of SO[sub 2]-induced cooling takes place in the Northern Hemispheric continents, the model-predicted difference in the temperature response between the NH and the SH of [minus]0.2[degrees]C in 1980 is expected to remain about the same at least until 2060. This result is a combined effect of the much faster response of the continents that the oceans and the larger forcing due to CO[sub 2] than due to the SO[sub 2]. The climate response to a complete filtering of SO[sub 2] from the emission products in order to reduce acid rain is also examined. The result is a warming surge of 0.4[degrees]C in the first few years after the elimination of the SO[sub 2] emission. 64 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Global Warming: Its Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-19

The approach to this topic will be to look at the science behind anthropogenic global warming . Is man largely responsible for causing global warming due...paper will then investigate the nexus between global warming and U.S. national security policy. It will address the challenges facing U.S. leaders and...policy makers as they tackle the issue of global warming and its implications for U.S. policy. Finally it will conclude with recommendations for those

The effect of warming and enhanced ultraviolet radiation on gender-specific emissions of volatile organic compounds from European aspen.

PubMed

Maja, Mengistu M; Kasurinen, Anne; Holopainen, Toini; Julkunen-Tiitto, Riitta; Holopainen, Jarmo K

2016-03-15

Different environmental stress factors often occur together but their combined effects on plant secondary metabolism are seldom considered. We studied the effect of enhanced ultraviolet (UV-B) (31% increase) radiation and temperature (ambient +2 °C) singly and in combination on gender-specific emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from 2-year-old clones of European aspen (Populus tremula L.). Plants grew in 36 experimental plots (6 replicates for Control, UV-A, UV-B, T, UV-A+T and UV-B+T treatments), in an experimental field. VOCs emitted from shoots were sampled from two (1 male and 1 female) randomly selected saplings (total of 72 saplings), per plot on two sampling occasions (June and July) in 2014. There was a significant UV-B×temperature interaction effect on emission rates of different VOCs. Isoprene emission rate was increased due to warming, but warming also modified VOC responses to both UV-A and UV-B radiation. Thus, UV-A increased isoprene emissions without warming, whereas UV-B increased emissions only in combination with warming. Warming-modified UV-A and UV-B responses were also seen in monoterpenes (MTs), sesquiterpenes (SQTs) and green leaf volatiles (GLVs). MTs showed also a UV × gender interaction effect as females had higher emission rates under UV-A and UV-B than males. UV × gender and T × gender interactions caused significant differences in VOC blend as there was more variation (more GLVs and trans-β-caryophyllene) in VOCs from female saplings compared to male saplings. VOCs from the rhizosphere were also collected from each plot in two exposure seasons, but no significant treatment effects were observed. Our results suggest that simultaneous warming and elevated-UV-radiation increase the emission of VOCs from aspen. Thus the contribution of combined environmental factors on VOC emissions may have a greater impact to the photochemical reactions in the atmosphere compared to the impact of individual factors acting alone. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Baseline Levels of Flexibility and Vertical Jump Ability on Performance Following Different Volumes of Static Stretching and Potentiating Exercises in Elite Gymnasts

PubMed Central

Donti, Olyvia; Tsolakis, Charilaos; Bogdanis, Gregory C.

2014-01-01

This study examined the effects of baseline flexibility and vertical jump ability on straight leg raise range of motion (ROM) and counter-movement jump performance (CMJ) following different volumes of stretching and potentiating exercises. ROM and CMJ were measured after two different warm-up protocols involving static stretching and potentiating exercises. Three groups of elite athletes (10 male, 14 female artistic gymnasts and 10 female rhythmic gymnasts) varying greatly in ROM and CMJ, performed two warm-up routines. One warm-up included short (15 s) static stretching followed by 5 tuck jumps, while the other included long static stretching (30 s) followed by 3x5 tuck jumps. ROM and CMJ were measured before, during and for 12 min after the two warm-up routines. Three-way ANOVA showed large differences between the three groups in baseline ROM and CMJ performance. A type of warm-up x time interaction was found for both ROM (p = 0.031) and CMJ (p = 0.016). However, all athletes, irrespective of group, responded in a similar fashion to the different warm-up protocols for both ROM and CMJ, as indicated from the lack of significant interactions for group (condition x group, time x group or condition x time x group). In the short warm-up protocol, ROM was not affected by stretching, while in the long warm-up protocol ROM increased by 5.9% ± 0.7% (p = 0.001) after stretching. Similarly, CMJ remained unchanged after the short warm-up protocol, but increased by 4.6 ± 0.9% (p = 0.012) 4 min after the long warm- up protocol, despite the increased ROM. It is concluded that the initial levels of flexibility and CMJ performance do not alter the responses of elite gymnasts to warm-up protocols differing in stretching and potentiating exercise volumes. Furthermore, 3 sets of 5 tuck jumps result in a relatively large increase in CMJ performance despite an increase in flexibility in these highly-trained athletes. Key Points The initial levels of flexibility and vertical jump ability have no effect on straight leg raise range of motion (ROM) and counter-movement jump performance (CMJ) of elite gymnasts following warm-up protocols differing in stretching and potentiating exercise volumes Stretching of the main leg muscle groups for only 15 s has no effect on ROM of elite gymnasts In these highly-trained athletes, one set of 5 tuck jumps during warm-up is not adequate to increase CMJ performance, while 3 sets of 5 tuck jumps result in a relatively large increase in CMJ performance (by 4.6% above baseline), despite a 5.9% increase in flexibility due to the 30 s stretching exercises PMID:24570613

Half the story: Thermal effects on within-host infectious disease progression in a warming climate.

PubMed

Stewart, Alexander; Hablützel, Pascal I; Brown, Martha; Watson, Hayley V; Parker-Norman, Sophie; Tober, Anya V; Thomason, Anna G; Friberg, Ida M; Cable, Joanne; Jackson, Joseph A

2018-01-01

Immune defense is temperature dependent in cold-blooded vertebrates (CBVs) and thus directly impacted by global warming. We examined whether immunity and within-host infectious disease progression are altered in CBVs under realistic climate warming in a seasonal mid-latitude setting. Going further, we also examined how large thermal effects are in relation to the effects of other environmental variation in such a setting (critical to our ability to project infectious disease dynamics from thermal relationships alone). We employed the three-spined stickleback and three ecologically relevant parasite infections as a "wild" model. To generate a realistic climatic warming scenario we used naturalistic outdoors mesocosms with precise temperature control. We also conducted laboratory experiments to estimate thermal effects on immunity and within-host infectious disease progression under controlled conditions. As experimental readouts we measured disease progression for the parasites and expression in 14 immune-associated genes (providing insight into immunophenotypic responses). Our mesocosm experiment demonstrated significant perturbation due to modest warming (+2°C), altering the magnitude and phenology of disease. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated substantial thermal effects. Prevailing thermal effects were more important than lagged thermal effects and disease progression increased or decreased in severity with increasing temperature in an infection-specific way. Combining laboratory-determined thermal effects with our mesocosm data, we used inverse modeling to partition seasonal variation in Saprolegnia disease progression into a thermal effect and a latent immunocompetence effect (driven by nonthermal environmental variation and correlating with immune gene expression). The immunocompetence effect was large, accounting for at least as much variation in Saprolegnia disease as the thermal effect. This suggests that managers of CBV populations in variable environments may not be able to reliably project infectious disease risk from thermal data alone. Nevertheless, such projections would be improved by primarily considering prevailing thermal effects in the case of within-host disease and by incorporating validated measures of immunocompetence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Injury due to extravasation of thiopental and propofol: Risks/effects of local cooling/warming in rats.

PubMed

Shibata, Yuuka; Yokooji, Tomoharu; Itamura, Ryo; Sagara, Yumeka; Taogoshi, Takanori; Ogawa, Katsunari; Tanaka, Maiko; Hide, Michihiro; Kihira, Kenji; Matsuo, Hiroaki

2016-12-01

Inadvertent leakage of medications with vesicant properties can cause severe necrosis in tissue, which can have devastating long-term consequences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent of extravasation injury induced by thiopental and propofol, and the effects of cooling or warming of local tissue on extravasation injury at macroscopic and histopathologic levels. Rats were administered intradermally thiopental (2.5 mg/100 µL) or propofol (1.0 mg/100 µL). Rats were assigned randomly to three groups: control (no treatment), cooling and warming. Local cooling (18-20 °C) or warming (40-42 °C) was applied for 3 h immediately after agent injection. Lesion sizes (erythema, induration, ulceration, necrosis) were monitored after agent injection. Histopathology was evaluated in skin biopsies taken 24 h after agent injection. Thiopental injection induced severe skin injury with necrosis. Peak lesions developed within 24 h and healed gradually 18-27 days after extravasation. Propofol induced inflammation but no ulceration, and lesions healed within 1-2 days. Local cooling reduced thiopental- and propofol-induced extravasation injuries but warming strongly exacerbated the skin lesions (e.g., degeneration, necrosis) induced by extravasation of thiopental and propofol. Thiopental can be classified as a "vesicant" that causes tissue necrosis and propofol can be classified as an "irritant". Local cooling protects (at least in part) against skin disorders induced by thiopental and propofol, whereas warming is harmful.

Fatal warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia in a child due to IgM-type autoantibodies.

PubMed

Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Tanaka, Fumiko; Sakuma, Hiroyuki; Sato, Mutsumi; Inaba, Shoichi; Kai, Sumio

2016-08-01

Herein is described a case of immunoglobulin M (IgM) warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) in a child who consequently died within 3 days of clinical onset. A previously healthy 11-year-old boy presented with fever, anemia, jaundice, and deteriorating consciousness. On direct agglutination test against group O red blood cells, agglutination was seen even at 37°C in saline, which was abolished on dithiothreitol treatment of the serum, indicating that the responsible autoantibody was IgM and had a warm-reactive capacity. A diagnosis of IgM warm AIHA was therefore made. Hemagglutination in the visceral capillaries was considered as the direct cause of organ dysfunction. The patient died due to respiratory failure. IgM warm AIHA is a very severe condition that is difficult to reverse in an advanced state. Both prompt, definite diagnosis and intervention are therefore vital to prevent severe multi-organ dysfunction in cases of IgM warm AIHA. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

PubMed

Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

2017-04-01

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

What Is the Atmosphere’s Effect on Earth's Surface Temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xubin

2010-04-01

It is frequently stated in textbooks and scholarly articles that the surface temperature of Earth is 33°C warmer than it would be without the atmosphere and that this difference is due to the greenhouse effect. This Forum shows that the atmosphere effect leads to warming of only 20°C. This new conclusion requires a revision to all of the relevant literature in K-12, undergraduate, and graduate education material and to science papers and reports. The greenhouse effect on Earth's surface temperature is well understood qualitatively and is regarded as basic knowledge about Earth's climate and climate change. The 33°C warming has been used to quantify the greenhouse effect of greenhouse gases, or of greenhouse gases and clouds, in K-12 educational material (e.g., http://epa.gov/climatechange/kids/greenhouse.html), undergraduate freshman introductory textbooks on weather and climate [e.g., Ahrens, 2008], and graduate textbooks on climate [e.g., Peixoto and Oort, 1992]. Some textbooks and various other publications have less stringently attributed the warming to the greenhouse effect [e.g., Wallace and Hobbs, 2006; Le Treut et al., 2007; American Meteorological Society, 2000].

Marine species in ambient low-oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Stortini, Christine H; Chabot, Denis; Shackell, Nancy L

2017-06-01

We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20-40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen-rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep-dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high-density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep-dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high-density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species-by-species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low-oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S.; Mitton, Jeffry B.

2017-01-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.

PubMed

Kueppers, Lara M; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S; Mitton, Jeffry B

2017-06-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Responses of Soil Microbial Communities to Experimental Warming in Alpine Grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

PubMed Central

He, Xingyuan; Liu, Wenjie; Zhao, Qian; Zhao, Lin; Tian, Chunjie

2014-01-01

Global surface temperature is predicted to increase by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. However, the response of soil microbial communities to global warming is still poorly understood, especially in high-elevation grasslands. We therefore conducted an experiment on three types of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of experimental warming on abundance and composition of soil microbial communities at 0–10 and 10–20 cm depths. Plots were passively warmed for 3 years using open-top chambers and compared to adjacent control plots at ambient temperature. Soil microbial communities were assessed using phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis. We found that 3 years of experimental warming consistently and significantly increased microbial biomass at the 0–10 cm soil depth of alpine swamp meadow (ASM) and alpine steppe (AS) grasslands, and at both the 0–10 and 10–20 cm soil depths of alpine meadow (AM) grasslands, due primarily to the changes in soil temperature, moisture, and plant coverage. Soil microbial community composition was also significantly affected by warming at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM and AM and at the 10–20 cm soil depth of AM. Warming significantly decreased the ratio of fungi to bacteria and thus induced a community shift towards bacteria at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM and AM. While the ratio of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to saprotrophic fungi (AMF/SF) was significantly decreased by warming at the 0–10 cm soil depth of ASM, it was increased at the 0–10 cm soil depth of AM. These results indicate that warming had a strong influence on soil microbial communities in the studied high-elevation grasslands and that the effect was dependent on grassland type. PMID:25083904

Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands.

PubMed

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2017-04-01

Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature and an organism's fitness. Here, we ask whether these documented latitudinal patterns can be generalized to predict arthropod responses to warming across mid- and high temperate latitudes, for taxa whose thermal physiology has not been measured. To address this question, we used a novel natural experiment consisting of a series of urban warming gradients at different latitudes. Specifically, we sampled arthropods from a single common street tree species across temperature gradients in four US cities, located from 35.8 to 42.4° latitude. We captured 6746 arthropods in 34 families from 111 sites that varied in summer average temperature by 1.7-3.4 °C within each city. Arthropod responses to warming within each city were characterized as Poisson regression coefficients describing change in abundance per °C for each family. Family responses in the two midlatitude cities were heterogeneous, including significantly negative and positive effects, while those in high-latitude cities varied no more than expected by chance within each city. We expected high-latitude taxa to increase in abundance with warming, and they did so in one of the two high-latitude cities; in the other, Queens (New York City), most taxa declined with warming, perhaps due to habitat loss that was correlated with warming in this city. With the exception of Queens, patterns of family responses to warming were consistent with predictions based on known latitudinal patterns in arthropod physiology relative to regional climate. Heterogeneous responses in midlatitudes may be ecologically disruptive if interacting taxa respond oppositely to warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The sports performance application of vibration exercise for warm-up, flexibility and sprint speed.

PubMed

Cochrane, Darryl

2013-01-01

Since the turn of the 21st century, there has been a resurgence of vibration technology to enhance sport science especially for power and force development. However, vibration exercise has been trialled in other areas that are central to athlete performance such as warm-up, flexibility and sprint speed. Therefore, the aim of this review was to attempt to gain a better understanding of how acute and short-term vibration exercise may impact on warm-up, flexibility and sprint speed. The importance of warming up for sporting performance has been well documented and vibration exercise has the capability to be included or used as a standalone warm-up modality to increase intramuscular temperature at a faster rate compared to other conventional warm-up modalities. However, vibration exercise does not provide any additional neurogenic benefits compared to conventional dynamic and passive warm-up interventions. Vibration exercise appears to be a safe modality that does not produce any adverse affects causing injury or harm and could be used during interval and substitution breaks, as it would incur a low metabolic cost and be time-efficient compared to conventional warm-up modalities. Acute or short-term vibration exercise can enhance flexibility and range of motion without having a detrimental effect on muscle power, however it is less clear which mechanisms may be responsible for this enhancement. It appears that vibration exercise is not capable of improving sprint speed performance; this could be due to the complex and dynamic nature of sprinting where the purported increase in muscle power from vibration exercise is probably lost on repeated actions of high force generation. Vibration exercise is a safe modality that produces no adverse side effects for injury or harm. It has the time-efficient capability of providing coaches, trainers, and exercise specialists with an alternative modality that can be implemented for warm-up and flexibility either in isolation or in conjunction with other conventional training methods.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, butmore » raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.« less

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

DOE PAGES

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; ...

2016-12-15

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, butmore » raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.« less

Investigation of Transmission Warming Technologies at Various Ambient Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jehlik, Forrest; Iliev, Simeon; Wood, Eric

This work details two approaches for evaluating transmission warming technology: experimental dynamometer testing and development of a simplified transmission efficiency model to quantify effects under varied real world ambient and driving conditions. Two vehicles were used for this investigation: a 2013 Ford Taurus and a 2011 Ford Fusion. The Taurus included a production transmission warming system and was tested over hot and cold ambient temperatures with the transmission warming system enabled and disabled. A robot driver was used to minimize driver variability and increase repeatability. Additionally the Fusion was tested cold and with the transmission pre-heated prior to completing themore » test cycles. These data were used to develop a simplified thermally responsive transmission model to estimate effects of transmission warming in real world conditions. For the Taurus, the fuel consumption variability within one standard deviation was shown to be under 0.5% for eight repeat Urban Dynamometer Driving Cycles (UDDS). These results were valid with the transmission warming system active or passive. Using the transmission warming system under 22 degrees C ambient temperature, fuel consumption reduction was shown to be 1.4%. For the Fusion, pre-warming the transmission reduced fuel consumption 2.5% for an urban drive cycle at -7 degrees C ambient temperature, with 1.5% of the 2.5% gain associated with the transmission, while consumption for the US06 test was shown to be reduced by 7% with 5.5% of the 7% gain associated with the transmission. It was found that engine warming due to conduction between the pre-heated transmission and the engine resulted in the remainder of the benefit. For +22 degrees C ambient tests, the pre-heated transmission was shown to reduce fuel consumption approximately 1% on an urban cycle, while no benefit was seen for the US06 cycle. The simplified modeling results showed gains in efficiency ranging from 0-1.5% depending on the ambient temperature and drive cycle.« less

Deep oceans may acidify faster than anticipated due to global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur; Lui, Hon-Kit; Hsieh, Chia-Han; Yanagi, Tetsuo; Kosugi, Naohiro; Ishii, Masao; Gong, Gwo-Ching

2017-12-01

Oceans worldwide are undergoing acidification due to the penetration of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere1-4. The rate of acidification generally diminishes with increasing depth. Yet, slowing down of the thermohaline circulation due to global warming could reduce the pH in the deep oceans, as more organic material would decompose with a longer residence time. To elucidate this process, a time-series study at a climatically sensitive region with sufficient duration and resolution is needed. Here we show that deep waters in the Sea of Japan are undergoing reduced ventilation, reducing the pH of seawater. As a result, the acidification rate near the bottom of the Sea of Japan is 27% higher than the rate at the surface, which is the same as that predicted assuming an air-sea CO2 equilibrium. This reduced ventilation may be due to global warming and, as an oceanic microcosm with its own deep- and bottom-water formations, the Sea of Japan provides an insight into how future warming might alter the deep-ocean acidification.

Total environmental warming impact (TEWI) calculations for alternative automative air-conditioning systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sand, J.R.; Fischer, S.K.

1997-01-01

The Montreal Protocol phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has required manufacturers to develop refrigeration and air-conditioning systems that use refrigerants that can not damage stratospheric ozone. Most refrigeration industries have adapted their designs to use hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) or hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants; new automobile air- conditioning systems use HFC-134a. These industries are now being affected by scientific investigations of greenhouse warming and questions about the effects of refrigerants on global warming. Automobile air-conditioning has three separate impacts on global warming; (1) the effects of refrigerant inadvertently released to the atmosphere from accidents, servicing, and leakage; (2) the efficiency of the cooling equipmentmore » (due to the emission of C0{sub 2} from burning fuel to power the system); and (3) the emission of C0{sub 2} from burning fuel to transport the system. The Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) is an index that should be used to compare the global warming effects of alternative air-conditioning systems because it includes these contributions from the refrigerant, cooling efficiency, and weight. This paper compares the TEWI of current air-conditioning systems using HFC-134a with that of transcritical vapor compression system using carbon dioxide and systems using flammable refrigerants with secondary heat transfer loops. Results are found to depend on both climate and projected efficiency of C0{sub 2}systems. Performance data on manufacturing prototype systems are needed to verify the potential reductions in TEWI. Extensive field testing is also required to determine the performance, reliability, and ``serviceability`` of each alternative to HFC-134a to establish whether the potential reduction of TEWI can be achieved in a viable consumer product.« less

Accelerating Net Terrestrial Carbon Uptake During the Warming Hiatus Due to Reduced Respiration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballantyne, Ashley; Smith, William; Anderegg, William; Kauppi, Pekka; Sarmiento, Jorge; Tans, Pieter; Shevliakova, Elena; Pan, Yude; Poulter, Benjamin; Anav, Alessandro;

Accelerating net terrestrial carbon uptake during the warming hiatus due to reduced respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballantyne, Ashley; Smith, William; Anderegg, William; Kauppi, Pekka; Sarmiento, Jorge; Tans, Pieter; Shevliakova, Elena; Pan, Yude; Poulter, Benjamin; Anav, Alessandro; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Houghton, Richard; Running, Steven

2017-01-01

The recent `warming hiatus' presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Here we combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantly accelerated from -0.007 +/- 0.065 PgC yr-2 over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119 +/- 0.071 PgC yr-2 over the warming hiatus (1998-2012). This acceleration in NBP is not due to increased primary productivity, but rather reduced respiration that is correlated (r = 0.58 P = 0.0007) and sensitive (γ = 4.05 to 9.40 PgC yr-1 per °C) to land temperatures. Global land models do not fully capture this apparent reduced respiration over the warming hiatus; however, an empirical model including soil temperature and moisture observations better captures the reduced respiration.

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

2017-12-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Reduced feeding activity of soil detritivores under warmer and drier conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakur, Madhav P.; Reich, Peter B.; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Stefanski, Artur; Rich, Roy; Rice, Karen E.; Eddy, William C.; Eisenhauer, Nico

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic warming is projected to trigger positive feedbacks to climate by enhancing carbon losses from the soil1. While such losses are, in part, due to increased decomposition of organic matter by invertebrate detritivores, it is unknown how detritivore feeding activity will change with warming2, especially under drought conditions. Here, using four-year manipulation experiments in two North American boreal forests, we investigate how temperature (ambient, ambient + 1.7 °C and ambient + 3.4 °C) and rainfall (ambient and -40% of the summer precipitation) perturbations influence detritivore feeding activity. In contrast to general expectations1,3, warming had negligible net effects on detritivore feeding activity at ambient precipitation. However, when combined with precipitation reductions, warming decreased feeding activity by 14%. Across all plots and dates, detritivore feeding activity was positively associated with bulk soil microbial respiration. These results suggest slower rates of decomposition of soil organic matter and thus reduced positive feedbacks to climate under anthropogenic climate change.

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

PubMed Central

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-01-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765

Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

2017-07-01

Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

Response of water temperature to surface wave effects in the Baltic Sea: simulations with the coupled NEMO-WAM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alari, Victor; Staneva, Joanna; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian; Janssen, Peter

2016-04-01

The effects of wind waves on the Baltic Sea water temperature has been studied by coupling the hydrodynamical model NEMO with the wave model WAM. The wave forcing terms that have been taken into consideration are: Stokes-Coriolis force, seastate dependent energy flux and sea-state dependent momentum flux. The combined role of these processes as well as their individual contributions on simulated temperature is analysed. The results indicate a pronounced effect of waves on surface temperature, on the distribution of vertical temperature and on upwellinǵs. In northern parts of the Baltic Sea a warming of the surface layer occurs in the wave included simulations. This in turn reduces the cold bias between simulated and measured data. The warming is primarily caused by sea-state dependent energy flux. Wave induced cooling is mostly observed in near coastal areas and is mainly due to Stokes-Coriolis forcing. The latter triggers effect of intensifying upwellings near the coasts, depending on the direction of the wind. The effect of sea-state dependent momentum flux is predominantly to warm the surface layer. During the summer the wave induced water temperature changes were up to 1 °C.

Committed warming inferred from observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert

2017-09-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.

Revisiting Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature trends in WACCM: The role of dynamical forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, N.; Garcia, R. R.; Kinnison, D. E.

2017-04-01

The latest version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), which includes a new chemistry scheme and an updated parameterization of orographic gravity waves, produces temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere in excellent agreement with radiosonde observations for 1969-1998 as regards magnitude, location, timing, and persistence. The maximum trend, reached in November at 100 hPa, is -4.4 ± 2.8 K decade-1, which is a third smaller than the largest trend in the previous version of WACCM. Comparison with a simulation without the updated orographic gravity wave parameterization, together with analysis of the model's thermodynamic budget, reveals that the reduced trend is due to the effects of a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation in the new simulations, which warms the polar cap. The effects are both direct (a trend in adiabatic warming in late spring) and indirect (a smaller trend in ozone, hence a smaller reduction in shortwave heating, due to the warmer environment).

Effect of anthropogenic aerosol emissions on precipitation in warm conveyor belts in the western North Pacific in winter - a model study with ECHAM6-HAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joos, Hanna; Madonna, Erica; Witlox, Kasja; Ferrachat, Sylvaine; Wernli, Heini; Lohmann, Ulrike

2017-05-01

While there is a clear impact of aerosol particles on the radiation balance, whether and how aerosol particles influence precipitation is controversial. Here we use the ECHAM6-HAM global climate model coupled to an aerosol module to analyse whether an impact of anthropogenic aerosol particles on the timing and amount of precipitation can be detected in North Pacific warm conveyor belts. Warm conveyor belts are the strongest precipitation-producing airstreams in extratropical cyclones and are identified here with a Lagrangian technique, i.e. by objectively identifying the most strongly ascending trajectories in North Pacific cyclones. These conveyor belts have been identified separately in 10-year ECHAM6-HAM simulations with present-day and pre-industrial aerosol conditions. Then, the evolution of aerosols and cloud properties has been analysed in detail along the identified warm conveyor belt trajectories. The results show that, under present-day conditions, some warm conveyor belt trajectories are strongly polluted (i.e. high concentrations of black carbon and sulfur dioxide) due to horizontal transport from eastern Asia to the oceanic region where warm conveyor belts start their ascent. In these polluted trajectories a weak delay and reduction of precipitation formation occurs compared to clean warm conveyor belt trajectories. However, all warm conveyor belts consist of both polluted and clean trajectories at the time they start their ascent, and the typically more abundant clean trajectories strongly reduce the aerosol impact from the polluted trajectories. The main conclusion then is that the overall amount of precipitation is comparable in pre-industrial conditions, when all warm conveyor belt trajectories are clean, and in present-day conditions, when warm conveyor belts consist of a mixture of clean and polluted trajectories.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Combined effects of warming and acidification on accumulation and elimination dynamics of paralytic shellfish toxins in mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis.

PubMed

Braga, Ana C; Camacho, Carolina; Marques, António; Gago-Martínez, Ana; Pacheco, Mário; Costa, Pedro R

2018-07-01

Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been increasing in frequency and intensity most likely due to changes on global conditions, which constitute a significant threat to wild shellfish and its commercial farming. This study evaluated the impact of increasing seawater temperature and acidification on the accumulation/elimination dynamics of HAB-toxins in shellfish. Mytilus galloprovincialis were acclimated to four environmental conditions simulating different climate change scenarios: i) current conditions, ii) warming, iii) acidification and iv) interaction of warming with acidification. Once acclimated, mussels were exposed to the paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) producing dinoflagellate Gymnodinium catenatum for 5 days and to non-toxic diet during the subsequent 10 days. High toxicity levels (1493 µg STX eq. kg -1 ) exceeding the safety limits were determined under current conditions at the end of the uptake period. Significantly lower PSP toxicity levels were registered for warming- and acidification-acclimated mussels (661 and 761 µg STX eq. kg -1 ). The combined effect of both warming and acidification resulted in PSP toxicity values slightly higher (856 μg STX eq. kg -1 ). A rapid decrease of toxicity was observed in mussels at the current conditions after shifting to a non-toxic diet, which was not noticed under the predicted climate change scenarios. Variability of each PST analogue, measured throughout the experiment, highlighted different mechanisms are associated with changes of each environmental factor, although both resulting in lower toxicity. Warming-acclimated mussels showed lower accumulation/elimination rates, while acidification-acclimated mussels showed higher capability to accumulate toxins, but also a higher elimination rate preventing high toxicity levels. As different mechanisms are triggered by warming and acidification, their combined effect not leads to a synergism of their individual effects. The present work is the first assessing the combined effect of climate change drivers on accumulation/elimination of PSTs, in mussels, indicating that warming and acidification may lead to lower toxicity values but longer toxic episodes. PSTs are responsible for the food poisoning syndrome, paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in humans. This study can be considered as the first step to build models for predicting shellfish toxicity under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radiative transfer in a polluted urban planetary boundary layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viskanta, R.; Johnson, R. O.; Bergstrom, R. W.

1977-01-01

Radiative transfer in a polluted urban atmosphere is studied using a dynamic model. The diurnal nature of radiative transfer for summer conditions is simulated for an urban area 40 km in extent and the effects of various parameters arising in the problem are investigated. The results of numerical computations show that air pollution has the potential of playing a major role in the radiative regime of the urban area. Absorption of solar energy by aerosols in realistic models of urban atmosphere are of the same order of magnitude as that due to water vapor. The predicted effect of the air pollution aerosol in the city is to warm the earth-atmosphere system, and the net effect of gaseous pollutant is to warm the surface and cool the planetary boundary layer, particularly near the top.

Experimental warming increased soil nitrogen sink in the Tibetan permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ruiying; Wang, Genxu; Yang, Yuanhe; Chen, Xiaopeng

2017-07-01

In permafrost soil, warming regulates the nitrogen (N) cycle either by stimulating N transformation or by enhancing cryoturbation, the mixture of soil layers due to repeated freeze thaw. Here N isotopic values (δ15N) of plants and the soil were investigated in a 7 year warming experiment in a permafrost-affected alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results revealed that warming significantly decreased the δ15N in the plant (aboveground and belowground parts) and different soil fractions (clay and silt fraction, aggregate, and bulk soil). The decreased soil δ15N was associated with an increase in soil N stock due to greater N fixation. The incremental N retention in plants and soil mineral-associated fractions from warming resulted in a decrease in soil inorganic N, which constrains the role of nitrification/denitrification in soil δ15N, suggesting a restrained rather than an open N cycle. Furthermore, enhanced cryoturbation under warming, identified by a downward redistribution of 137Cs into deeper layers, promoted N protection from transformation. Overall, the decrease in soil δ15N indicated higher rates of N input through fixation relative to N loss through nitrification and denitrification in permafrost-affected ecosystems under warming conditions.

Environmental impacts on the gonadotropic system in female Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) during vitellogenesis: Photothermal effects on pituitary gonadotropins, ovarian gonadotropin receptor expression, plasma sex steroids and oocyte growth.

PubMed

Taranger, Geir Lasse; Muncaster, Simon; Norberg, Birgitta; Thorsen, Anders; Andersson, Eva

2015-09-15

The gonadotropic system and ovarian growth and development were studied during vitellogenesis in female Atlantic salmon subjected to either simulated natural photoperiod and ambient water temperature (NL-amb), or an accelerating photoperiod (short day of LD8:16 from May 10) combined with either warmed (ca 2°C above ambient; 8L-warm) or cooled water (ca 2°C below ambient; 8L-cold) from May to September. Monthly samples were collected from 10 females/group for determination of transcript levels of pituitary gonadotropin subunits (fshb and lhb) and ovarian gonadotropin receptors (fshr and lhr), plasma sex steroids (testosterone: T and estradiol-17β: E2), gonadosomatic index (GSI) and oocyte size. Short day in combination with either warmed or cooled water induced an earlier increase in pituitary fshb and lhb levels compared with NL-amb controls, and advanced ovarian growth and the seasonal profiles of T, E2. By contrast only minor effects were seen of the photothermal treatments on ovarian fshr and lhr. The 8L-cold had earlier increase in fshb, lhb and E2, but similar oocyte and gonadal growth as 8L-warm, suggesting that the 8L-cold group tried to compensate for the lower water temperature during the period of rapid gonadal growth by increasing fshb and E2 production. Both the 8L-warm and 8L-cold groups showed incomplete ovulation in a proportion of the females, possibly due to the photoperiod advancement resulting in earlier readiness of spawning occurring at a higher ambient temperature, or due to some reproductive dysfunction caused by photothermal interference with normal neuroendocrine regulation of oocyte development and maturation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Study of aerosol effect on accelerated snow melting over the Tibetan Plateau during boreal spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Woo-Seop; Bhawar, Rohini L.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Sang, Jeong

2013-08-01

In the present study, a coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model (CSIRO-Mk3.6) is used to investigate the role of aerosol forcing agents as drivers of snow melting trends in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region. Anthropogenic aerosol-induced snow cover changes in a warming climate are calculated from the difference between historical run (HIST) and all forcing except anthropogenic aerosol (NoAA). Absorbing aerosols can influence snow cover by warming the atmosphere, reducing snow reflectance after deposition. The warming the rate of snow melt, exposing darker surfaces below to short-wave radiation sooner, and allowing them to heat up even faster in the Himalayas and TP. The results show a strong spring snow cover decrease over TP when absorbing anthropogenic aerosol forcing is considered, whereas snow cover fraction (SCF) trends in NoAA are weakly negative (but insignificant) during 1951-2005. The enhanced spring snow cover trends in HIST are due to overall effects of different forcing agents: When aerosol forcing (AERO) is considered, a significant reduction of SCF than average can be found over the western TP and Himalayas. The large decreasing trends in SCF over the TP, with the maximum reduction of SCF around 12-15% over the western TP and Himalayas slope. Also accelerated snow melting during spring is due to effects of aerosol on snow albedo, where aerosol deposition cause decreases snow albedo. However, the SCF change in the “NoAA” simulations was observed to be less.

An evaluation of the current radiative forcing benefit of the Montreal Protocol at the high-Alpine site Jungfraujoch.

PubMed

Steinbacher, M; Vollmer, M K; Buchmann, B; Reimann, S

2008-03-01

A combination of reconstructed histories, long-term time series and recent quasi-continuous observations of non-CO2 greenhouse gases at the high-Alpine site Jungfraujoch is used to assess their current global radiative forcing budget and the influence of regulations due to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in terms of climate change. Extrapolated atmospheric greenhouse gases trends from 1989 assuming a business-as-usual scenario, i.e. no Montreal Protocol restriction, are presented and compared to the observations. The largest differences between hypothetical business-as-usual mixing ratios and current atmospheric observations over the last 16 years were found for chlorinated species, in particular methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) at 167 to 203 ppt and chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) at 121 to 254 ppt. These prevented increases were used to estimate the effects of their restrictions on the radiative forcing budget. The net direct effect due to the Montreal Protocol regulations reduces global warming and offsets about 14 to 30% of the positive greenhouse effect related to the major greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O and also SF6, and about 12 to 22% of the hypothetical current radiative forcing increase without Montreal Protocol restrictions. Thus, the Montreal Protocol succeeded not only in reducing the atmospheric chlorine content in the atmosphere but also dampened global warming. Nevertheless, the Montreal Protocol controlled species still add to global warming.

Seasonal variability of rocky reef fish assemblages: Detecting functional and structural changes due to fishing effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriques, Sofia; Pais, Miguel Pessanha; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique Nogueira

2013-05-01

The present study analyzed the effects of seasonal variation on the stability of fish-based metrics and their capability to detect changes in fish assemblages, which is yet poorly understood despite the general idea that guilds are more resilient to natural variability than species abundances. Three zones subject to different levels of fishing pressure inside the Arrábida Marine Protected Area (MPA) were sampled seasonally. The results showed differences between warm (summer and autumn) and cold (winter and spring) seasons, with the autumn clearly standing out. In general, the values of the metrics density of juveniles, density of invertebrate feeders and density of omnivores increased in warm seasons, which can be attributed to differences in recruitment patterns, spawning migrations and feeding activity among seasons. The density of generalist/opportunistic individuals was sensitive to the effect of fishing, with higher values at zones with the lowest level of protection, while the density of individuals with high commercial value only responded to fishing in the autumn, due to a cumulative result of both juveniles and adults abundances during this season. Overall, this study showed that seasonal variability affects structural and functional features of the fish assemblage and that might influence the detection of changes as a result of anthropogenic pressures. The choice of a specific season, during warm sea conditions after the spawning period (July-October), seems to be more adequate to assess changes on rocky-reef fish assemblages.

Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2009-04-01

While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in relative AAM is observed with major contributions in the upper troposphere where increased jet streams cause large AAM anomalies. Due to increasing westerly winds, an eastward shift can be observed during strong El Niño events for the Pacific and North America centers of the PNA while its southeast center is less pronounced and shifts to the West. As a result, the PNA region during strong 21th century El Niño events is closely located to the PNA region of mean atmospheric conditions of present time. Further analyses on the climate warming scenario (A1B) determined a total of 28 strong El Niño events suggesting a steady increase in ENSO events, magnitude and duration during the last decades of the 21st century. Rising Niño 3.4 SSTs exceed global increases by 15%. Correspondingly to present times, the AAM-SST relation also indicates a range of explained variances from 8% to 82%. Ongoing analyses on 21st century climate warming relate zonal wind anomalies in the upper troposphere to SST patterns of individual strong El Niños to estimate a possible effect of the relative AAM on length-of-day variations.

Impact of climate warming-induced increase in drought stress on successional dynamic of a coniferous forest within a dry inner Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, R.; Zeisler, B.; Oberhuber, W.

2012-04-01

Climate sensitivity of tree growth will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. We applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine impact of climate warming on radial stem growth of three native and widespread coniferous tree species of the central Austrian Alps (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within a dry inner Alpine environment (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Time series of annual increments were developed from > 250 saplings and mature trees. Radial growth response to recent climate warming was explored by means of moving response functions (MRF) and evaluation of trends in basal area increment (BAI) for the period 1911 - 2009. Climate-growth relationships revealed significant differences among species in response to water availability. While precipitation in May - June favoured radial growth of spruce and larch, Scots pine growth mainly depended on April - May precipitation. Spruce growth was most sensitive to May - June temperature (inverse relationship). Although MRF coefficients indicated increasing drought sensitivity of all species, which is most likely related to intensified belowground competition for scarce water with increasing stand density and higher evapotranspiration rates due to climate warming, recent BAI trends strikingly differed among species. While BAI of larch was distinctly declining, spruce showed steadily increasing BAI and quite constant BAI was maintained in drought adapted Scots pine, although at lowest level of all species. Furthermore, more favourable growing conditions of spruce in recent decades are indicated by scattered natural regeneration and higher growth rates of younger trees during first decades of their lifespan. Because human interference and wildlife stock is negligible within the study area, results suggest a competitive advantage of shade-tolerant and shallow-rooted late successional spruce over early successional species, whereby the spruce`s competitive strength is most likely related to synergistic effects of shade-tolerance and efficient uptake of small rainfall events by fine roots distributed primarily in upper soil layers. On the other hand, strikingly decreasing trend in BAI of larch is suggested to be due to negative influence of climate warming on tree water status. We conclude that climate warming-induced increase in drought sensitivity changed competitive strength of co-occurring conifers due to differences in inherent adaptive capacity at a drought-prone inner Alpine site.

Arctic ocean radiative fluxes and cloud forcing estimated from the ISCCP C2 cloud dataset, 1983-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schweiger, Axel J.; Key, Jeffrey R.

1994-01-01

Radiative fluxes and cloud forcings for the ocean areas of the Arctic are computed from the monthly cloud product of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) for 1983-90. Spatially averaged short-wave fluxes are compared well with climatological values, while downwelling longwave fluxes are significantly lower. This is probably due to the fact that the ISCCP cloud amounts are underestimates. Top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes are in excellent agreement with measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Computed cloud forcings indicate that clouds have a warming effect at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere during winter and a cooling effect during summer. The net radiative effect of clouds is larger at the surface during winter but greater at the top of the atmosphere during summer. Overall the net radiative effect of clouds at the top of the atmosphere is one of cooling. This is in contrast to a previous result from ERBE data showing arctic cloud forcings have a net warming effect. Sensitivities to errors in input parameters are generally greater during winter with cloud amount being the most important paarameter. During summer the surface radiation balance is most sensitive to errors in the measurements of surface reflectance. The results are encouraging, but the estimated error of 20 W/sq m in surface net radiative fluxes is too large, given that estimates of the net radiative warming effect due to a doubling of CO2 are on the order of 4 W/sq m. Because it is difficult to determine the accuracy of results with existing in situ observations, it is recommended that the development of improved algorithms for the retrieval of surface radiative properties be accompanied by the simultaneous assembly of validation datasets.

Potential causes of differences between ground and surface air temperature warming across different ecozones in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Skinner, Walter R.

1997-10-01

Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of these various forcings will be necessary in order to distinguish between, and to detect, the variety of natural and anthropogenic influences and on climate.

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.

PubMed

Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

2013-12-07

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

2017-04-01

In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker's Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Harrison, Susan; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Species with relatively narrow niches, such as plants restricted (endemic) to particular soils, may be especially vulnerable to extinction under a changing climate due to the enhanced difficulty they face in migrating to suitable new sites. To test for community-level effects of climate change, and to compare such effects in a highly endemic-rich flora on unproductive serpentine soils vs. the flora of normal (diorite) soils, in 2007 we resampled as closely as possible 108 sites originally studied by ecologist Robert H. Whittaker from 1949 to 1951 in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, USA. We found sharp declines in herb cover and richness on both serpentine and diorite soils. Declines were strongest in species of northern biogeographic affinity, species endemic to the region (in serpentine communities only), and species endemic to serpentine soils. Consistent with climatic warming, herb communities have shifted from 1949-1951 to 2007 to more closely resemble communities found on xeric (warm, dry) south-facing slopes. The changes found in the Siskiyou herb flora suggest that biotas rich in narrowly distributed endemics may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a warming climate.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

Eutrophication and Warming Boost Cyanobacterial Biomass and Microcystins.

PubMed

Lürling, Miquel; van Oosterhout, Frank; Faassen, Elisabeth

2017-02-11

Eutrophication and warming are key drivers of cyanobacterial blooms, but their combined effects on microcystin (MC) concentrations are less studied. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes cyanobacterial abundance in a natural plankton community and that eutrophication enhances cyanobacterial biomass and MC concentrations. We incubated natural seston from a eutrophic pond under normal, high, and extreme temperatures (i.e., 20, 25, and 30 °C) with and without additional nutrients added (eutrophication) mimicking a pulse as could be expected from projected summer storms under climate change. Eutrophication increased algal- and cyanobacterial biomass by 26 and 8 times, respectively, and led to 24 times higher MC concentrations. This effect was augmented with higher temperatures leading to 45 times higher MC concentrations at 25 °C, with 11 times more cyanobacterial chlorophyll- a and 25 times more eukaryote algal chlorophyll- a . At 30 °C, MC concentrations were 42 times higher, with cyanobacterial chlorophyll- a being 17 times and eukaryote algal chlorophyll- a being 24 times higher. In contrast, warming alone did not yield more cyanobacteria or MCs, because the in situ community had already depleted the available nutrient pool. MC per potential MC producing cell declined at higher temperatures under nutrient enrichments, which was confirmed by a controlled experiment with two laboratory strains of Microcystis aeruginosa. Nevertheless, MC concentrations were much higher at the increased temperature and nutrient treatment than under warming alone due to strongly promoted biomass, lifting N-imitation and promotion of potential MC producers like Microcystis . This study exemplifies the vulnerability of eutrophic urban waters to predicted future summer climate change effects that might aggravate cyanobacterial nuisance.

Thermohaline circulation: a missing equation and its climate-change implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ou, Hsien-Wang

2018-01-01

We formulate a box model of coupled ocean-atmosphere to examine the differential fields interactive with the thermohaline circulation (THC) and their response to global warming. We discern a robust convective bound on the atmospheric heat transport, which would divide the climate regime into warm and cold branches; but unlike the saline mode of previous box models, the cold state, if allowed, has the same-signed—though weaker—density contrast and THC as the present climate, which may explain its emergence from coupled general circulation models. We underscore the nondeterminacy of the THC due to random eddy shedding and apply the fluctuation theorem to constrain the shedding rate, thus closing the problem. The derivation reveals an ocean propelled toward the maximum entropy production (MEP) on millennial timescale (termed "MEP-adjustment"), the long timescale arising from the compounding effect of microscopic fluctuations in the shedding rate and their slight probability bias. Global warming may induce hysteresis between the two branches, like that seen in GCMs, but the cold transition is far more sensitive to the moistening than the heating effects as the latter would be countered by the hydrological feedback. The uni- or bi-modality of the current state—hence whether the THC may recover after the cold transition—depends on the global-mean convective flux and may not be easily assessed due to its observed uncertainty.

Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.

PubMed

Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen

2017-04-01

To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elevated CO2 induces substantial and persistent declines in forage quality irrespective of warming in mixedgrass prairie.

PubMed

Augustine, David J; Blumenthal, Dana M; Springer, Tim L; LeCain, Daniel R; Gunter, Stacey A; Derner, Justin D

2018-04-01

Increasing atmospheric [CO 2 ] and temperature are expected to affect the productivity, species composition, biogeochemistry, and therefore the quantity and quality of forage available to herbivores in rangeland ecosystems. Both elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) and warming affect plant tissue chemistry through multiple direct and indirect pathways, such that the cumulative outcomes of these effects are difficult to predict. Here, we report on a 7-yr study examining effects of CO 2 enrichment (to 600 ppm) and infrared warming (+1.5°C day/3°C night) under realistic field conditions on forage quality and quantity in a semiarid, mixedgrass prairie. For the three dominant forage grasses, warming effects on in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD) and tissue [N] were detected only in certain years, varied from negative to positive, and were relatively minor. In contrast, eCO 2 substantially reduced IVDMD (two most abundant grasses) and [N] (all three dominant grass species) in most years, except the two wettest years. Furthermore, eCO 2 reduced IVDMD and [N] independent of warming effects. Reduced IVDMD with eCO 2 was related both to reduced [N] and increased acid detergent fiber (ADF) content of grass tissues. For the six most abundant forage species (representing 96% of total forage production), combined warming and eCO 2 increased forage production by 38% and reduced forage [N] by 13% relative to ambient climate. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline in IVDMD and [N] due to combined warming and eCO 2 may seem small (e.g., from 63.3 to 61.1% IVDMD and 1.25 to 1.04% [N] for Pascopyrum smithii), such shifts could have substantial consequences for the rate at which ruminants gain weight during the primary growing season in the largest remaining rangeland ecosystem in North America. With forage production increases, declining forage quality could potentially be mitigated by adaptively increasing stocking rates, and through management such as prescribed burning, fertilization at low rates, and legume interseeding to enhance forage quality. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Effects of environmental temperature on the gut microbial communities of tadpoles.

PubMed

Kohl, Kevin D; Yahn, Jeremiah

2016-05-01

Numerous studies have investigated the effects of diet, phylogeny and immune status on the gut microbial communities of animals. Most of these studies are conducted on endotherms, especially mammals, which maintain constant body temperature in the face of environmental temperature variability. However, the majority of animals and vertebrates are ectotherms, which often experience fluctuations in body temperature as a result of their environment. While there have been several studies investigating the gut microbial diversity of ectotherms, we lack an understanding of how environmental temperature affects these communities. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing to inventory the gut microbial communities of tadpoles exposed to cool (18°C) or warm (28°C) temperature treatments. We found that temperature significantly impacted the community structure and membership of the tadpole gut. Specifically, tadpoles in the warm treatment exhibited higher abundances of the phylum Planctomycetes and the genus Mycobacterium. These results may be due to the direct effects of temperature, or mediated through changes in host physiology. Given that environmental temperatures are expected to increase due to global climate change, understanding the effects of temperature on the diversity and function of gut microbial communities is critical. © 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The rising greenhouse effect: experiments and observations in and around the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philipona, R.

2010-09-01

The rapid temperature increase of more than 1°C in central Europe over the last three decades is larger than expected from anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Surface radiation flux measurements in and around the Alps in fact confirm that not only thermal longwave radiation but also solar shortwave radiation increased since the 1980s. Surface energy budget analyses reveal the rising surface temperature to be well correlated with the radiative forcing, and also show an increase of the kinetic energy fluxes explaining the rise of atmospheric water vapor. Solar radiation mainly increased due to a strong decline of anthropogenic aerosols since mid of the 1980s. While anthropogenic aerosols were mainly accumulated in the boundary layer, this reduction let solar radiation to recover (solar brightening after several decades of solar dimming) mainly at low altitudes around the Alps. At high elevations in the Alps, solar forcing is much smaller and the respective temperature rise is also found to be smaller than in the lowlands. The fact that temperature increases less in the Alps than at low elevations is unexpected in the concept of greenhouse warming, but the radiation budget analyses clearly shows that in the plains solar forcing due to declining aerosols additionally increased surface temperature, whereas in the Alps temperature increased primarily due to greenhouse warming that is particularly manifested by a strong water vapor feedback.

Changes in Arctic Vegetation Amplify High-Latitude Warming Through Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, A.; Fung, I.; Levis, S.; Bonan, G. B.; Doney, S. C.

2009-12-01

Changes in vegetation cover are recognized to modify climate and the energy budget of the Earth through changes in albedo in high latitudes and evapotranspiration (ET) in the tropics. In snow-covered regions, the springtime growth of leaves enhances solar absorption because surface albedo is reduced from the albedo of snow (~0.8) towards the albedo of leaves (~0.1). Leaves also play a hydrologic role, transpiring soil water to the atmosphere. It has been suggested that broad-leaf deciduous trees may invade warming tundra more effectively than boreal evergreen trees and these trees have higher rates of transpiration than needle-leaf trees. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is 2.4 times larger than the direct forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Vegetation feedbacks through albedo and transpiration produce a strong warming if they act in combination with sea-ice processes.

Shift in tuna catches due to ocean warming.

PubMed

Monllor-Hurtado, Alberto; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Sanchez-Lizaso, José Luis

2017-01-01

Ocean warming is already affecting global fisheries with an increasing dominance of catches of warmer water species at higher latitudes and lower catches of tropical and subtropical species in the tropics. Tuna distributions are highly conditioned by sea temperature, for this reason and their worldwide distribution, their populations may be a good indicator of the effect of climate change on global fisheries. This study shows the shift of tuna catches in subtropical latitudes on a global scale. From 1965 to 2011, the percentage of tropical tuna in longliner catches exhibited a significantly increasing trend in a study area that included subtropical regions of the Atlantic and western Pacific Oceans and partially the Indian Ocean. This may indicate a movement of tropical tuna populations toward the poles in response to ocean warming. Such an increase in the proportion of tropical tuna in the catches does not seem to be due to a shift of the target species, since the trends in Atlantic and Indian Oceans of tropical tuna catches are decreasing. Our results indicate that as populations shift towards higher latitudes the catches of these tropical species did not increase. Thus, at least in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, tropical tuna catches have reduced in tropical areas.

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

PubMed Central

Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2016-01-01

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045

Detecting anthropogenic climate forcing in the ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijffels, S. A.

2016-12-01

Owing to its immense heat capacity, the global ocean is the fly-wheel of the climate system, absorbing, redistributing and storing heat on long timescales and over great distances. Of the extra heat trapped in the Earth System due to rising greenhouse gases, over 90% is being stored in the global oceans. Tracking this warming has been challenging due to past changes in the coverage and technology used in past ocean observations. Here, I'll review progress in estimating past warming rates and patterns. The warming of Earth's surface is also driving changes in the global hydrological cycle, which also intimately involves the oceans. Global ocean salinity changes reveal another footprint of a warming Earth. Some simple model runs that give insight into observed subsurface changes will also be described, along with an update on current warming rates and patterns as tracked by the global Argo programme. The prospects for the next advances in broadscale ocean monitoring will also be discussed.

An increase in aerosol burden due to the land-sea warming contrast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, T.; Allen, R.; Randles, C. A.

2017-12-01

Climate models simulate an increase in most aerosol species in response to warming, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This increase in aerosol burden is related to a decrease in wet removal, primarily due to reduced large-scale precipitation. Here, we show that the increase in aerosol burden, and the decrease in large-scale precipitation, is related to a robust climate change phenomenon—the land/sea warming contrast. Idealized simulations with two state of the art climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (NCAR CAM5) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 3 (GFDL AM3), show that muting the land-sea warming contrast negates the increase in aerosol burden under warming. This is related to smaller decreases in near-surface relative humidity over land, and in turn, smaller decreases in large-scale precipitation over land—especially in the NH midlatitudes. Furthermore, additional idealized simulations with an enhanced land/sea warming contrast lead to the opposite result—larger decreases in relative humidity over land, larger decreases in large-scale precipitation, and larger increases in aerosol burden. Our results, which relate the increase in aerosol burden to the robust climate projection of enhanced land warming, adds confidence that a warmer world will be associated with a larger aerosol burden.

Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.

1999-01-01

Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.

'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

2011-03-01

In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

Effect of Radiative Cooling on Cloud-SST Relationship within the Tropical Pacific Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chou, Ming-Dah; Lau, Ka-Ming; Li, Xiao-Fan; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A recent analysis found a negative correlation between the area-mean cloud amount and the corresponding mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) within the cloudy areas. The SST-cloud relation becomes more evident when the SST contrast between warm pool and surrounding cold pool (DSST) in the tropical Pacific is stronger than normal. The above feature is related to the finding that the strength of subsidence over the cold pool is limited by radiative cooling because of its small variability. As a result, the area of radiatively-driven subsidence must expand in response to enhanced low-boundary forcing due to SST warming or enhanced basin-scale DSST. This leads to more cloud free regions and less cloudy regions. The increased ratio of cloud-free areas to cloudy areas leads to more high SST areas (>29.50C) due to enhanced solar radiation.

The super greenhouse effect in a warming world: the role of dynamics and thermodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashinath, Karthik; O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2016-04-01

Over warm tropical oceans the increase in greenhouse trapping with increasing SST can be faster than that of the surface emission, resulting in a decrease in clear sky outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR) when SST increases, also known as the super greenhouse effect (SGE). If the SGE is directly linked to SST changes, there are profound implications for positive climate feedbacks in the tropics. We show that CMIP5 models perform well in simulating the observed clear-sky greenhouse effect in the present day. Using global warming experiments we show that the onset and shutdown SST of the SGE, as well as the magnitude of the SGE, increase as the convective threshold SST increases. To account for an increasing convective threshold SST we use an invariant coordinate for convection proposed in a recent study [Williams et al., GRL (2009)]. However, even after accounting for the increase in tropical SST (by normalizing the SGE by surface emission) and accounting for the increase in the threshold temperature for convection (by using the invariant coordinate) we find that the models predict a distinct increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect in a warmed world. This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e. SST) plays a crucial role in regulating the increasing clear sky greenhouse effect in a warming world. We use theoretical arguments to estimate this increase in SGE and derive its dependence on SST. Finally, as shown in previous studies, we confirm that the increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect is primarily due to upper tropospheric moistening. Although the absolute increase in upper tropospheric water vapor is small compared to that of the lower troposphere, since the absorptivity scales with fractional changes in water vapor, the contribution of the upper troposphere is more significant, as shown by Chung et al., PNAS (2014).

Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also generally well simulated, mostly limited by the accuracy of inflow hydrology. System-wide hydropower generation is reduced by 9% with 6 °C warming. Most reductions in hydropower generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. The central Sierra Nevada sees less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds is expected to decrease. System-wide, reservoirs adapt to capture earlier runoff, but mostly decrease in mean reservoir storage with warming due to decreasing annual runoff. Second, a multi-reservoir optimization model is developed using linear programming that considers the minimum instream flows (MIFs) and weekly down ramp rates (DRRs) in the Upper Yuba River in the northern Sierra Nevada. Weekly DRR constraints are used to mimic spring snowmelt flows, which are particularly important for downstream ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada but are currently missing due to the influence of dams. Trade-offs between MIFs, DRRs and hydropower are explored with air temperature warming (+0, 2, 4 and 6 °C). Under base case operations, mean annual hydropower generation increases slightly with 2 °C warming and decreases slightly with 6 °C warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduce hydropower generation 5.5% compared to base case operations and a historical climate, which has important implications for re-licensing the hydropower project. Finally, reservoir management for downstream temperatures is explored using a linear programming model to optimally release water from a reservoir using selective withdrawal. The objective function is to minimize deviations from desired downstream temperatures, which are specified to mimic the natural temperature regime in the river. One objective of this study was to develop a method that can be readily integrated into a basin-scale multi-reservoir optimization model using a network representation of system features. The second objective was to explore the potential use of reservoirs to maintain an ideal stream temperature regime to ameliorate the temperature effects of climate warming of air temperature. For proof-of-concept, the model is applied to Lake Spaulding in the Upper Yuba River. With selective withdrawal, the model hedges the release of cold water to decrease summer stream temperatures, but at a cost of warmer stream temperatures in the winter. Results also show that selective withdrawal can reduce, but not eliminate, the temperature effects of climate warming. The model can be extended to include other nearby reservoirs to optimally manage releases from multiple reservoirs for multiple downstream temperature targets in a highly interconnected system. While the outcomes of these studies contribute to our understanding of reservoir management and hydropower at the intersection of energy, water management, ecosystems, and climate warming, there are many opportunities to improve this work. Promising options for improving and building on the collective utility of these studies are presented.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Post-treatment with Ma-Huang-Tang ameliorates cold-warm-cycles induced rat lung injury.

PubMed

Xiao, Meng-Meng; Pan, Chun-Shui; Liu, Yu-Ying; Ma, Li-Qian; Yan, Li; Fan, Jing-Yu; Wang, Chuan-She; Huang, Rong; Han, Jing-Yan

2017-03-22

Frequent and drastic ambient temperature variation may cause respiratory diseases such as common cold and pneumonia, the mechanism for which is not fully understood, however, due to lack of appropriate animal models. Ma-Huang-Tang (MHT) is widely used in China for treatment of respiratory diseases. The present study aimed to investigate the effect of MHT on temperature alternation induced rat lung injury and explore underlying mechanisms. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to a cold environment for 1 h and then shifted to a warm environment for 30 min. This cold and warm alteration cycled 4 times. Rats were administrated with MHT (1.87 g/kg) by gavage 6 h after cold-warm-cycles. Cold-warm-cycles induced pulmonary microcirculatory disorders, lung edema and injury, decrease in the expression of tight junction proteins, increase in VE-cadherin activation, increase in the expression and activation of Caveolin-1, Src and NF-κB, and NADPH oxidase subunits p47 phox , p40 phox and p67 phox membrane translocation and inflammatory cytokines production. All alterations were significantly ameliorated by post-treatment with MHT. This study showed that rats subjected to cold-warm-cycles may be used as an animal model to investigate ambient temperature variation-induced lung injury, and suggested MHT as a potential strategy to combat lung injury induced by temperature variation.

A Regulation of Tropical Climate by Radiative Cooling as Simulated in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Lau, K.-M.; Li, X.; Chou, M.-D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm.

PubMed

Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya'u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

2015-01-01

Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks--hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper.

Accelerating net terrestrial carbon uptake during the warming hiatus due to reduced respiration

Treesearch

Ashley Ballantyne; William Smith; William Anderegg; Pekka Kauppi; Jorge Sarmiento; Pieter Tans; Elena Shevliakova; Yude Pan; Benjamin Poulter; Alessandro Anav; Pierre Friedlingstein; Richard Houghton; Steven Running

2017-01-01

The recent 'warming hiatus' presents an excellent opportunity to investigate climate sensitivity of carbon cycle processes. Here we combine satellite and atmospheric observations to show that the rate of net biome productivity (NBP) has significantly accelerated from-0.007 ± 0.065 PgC yr-2 over the warming period (1982 to 1998) to 0.119...

Roots of forbs sense climate fluctuations in the semi-arid Loess Plateau: Herb-chronology based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Songlin; Li, Zongshan; Wang, Hao; von Arx, Georg; Lü, Yihe; Wu, Xing; Wang, Xiaochun; Liu, Guohua; Fu, Bojie

2016-06-01

Growth of herbaceous plants responds sensitively and rapidly to climate variability. Yet, little is known regarding how climate warming influences the growth of herbaceous plants, particularly in semi-arid sites. This contrasts with widely reported tree growth decline and even mortality in response to severe water deficits due to climate warming around the world. Here, we use the relatively novel approach of herb-chronology to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and annual ring width in the root xylem of two perennial forb species (Medicago sativa, Potentilla chinensis) in the Loess Plateau of China. We show that warming-induced water deficit has a significant negative effect on the growth of herbaceous plants in the Loess Plateau. Our results indicate that the growth of forbs responds rapidly and sensitively to drought variability, implying that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating the growth of herbaceous plants in semi-arid areas. If warming and drying in the Loess Plateau continue in the future, further affects the growth of herbaceous plants, potentially driving regional changes in the relationship between herbaceous vegetation and climate.

Roots of forbs sense climate fluctuations in the semi-arid Loess Plateau: Herb-chronology based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, S.

2016-12-01

Growth of herbaceous plants responds sensitively and rapidly to climate variability. Yet, little is known regarding how climate warming influences the growth of herbaceous plants, particularly in semi-arid sites. This contrasts with widely reported tree growth decline and even mortality in response to severe water deficits due to climate warming around the world. Here, we use the relatively novel approach of herb-chronology to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and annual ring width in the root xylem of two perennial forb species (Medicago sativa, Potentilla chinensis) in the Loess Plateau of China. We show that warming-induced water deficit has a significant negative effect on the growth of herbaceous plants in the Loess Plateau. Our results indicate that the growth of forbs responds rapidly and sensitively to drought variability, implying that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating the growth of herbaceous plants in semi-arid areas. If warming and drying in the Loess Plateau continue in the future, further affects the growth of herbaceous plants, potentially driving regional changes in the relationship between herbaceous vegetation and climate.

Attribution of the 2015 record high sea surface temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, In-Hong; Min, Seung-Ki; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Weller, Evan; Kim, Seon Tae

2017-04-01

This study assessed the anthropogenic contribution to the 2015 record-breaking high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed in the central equatorial Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Considering a close link between extreme warm events in these regions, we conducted a joint attribution analysis using a fraction of attributable risk approach. Probability of occurrence of such extreme anomalies and long-term trends for the two oceanic regions were compared between CMIP5 multi-model simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Results show that the excessive warming in both regions is well beyond the range of natural variability and robustly attributable to human activities due to greenhouse gas increase. We further explored associated mechanisms including the Bjerknes feedback and background anthropogenic warming. It is concluded that background warming was the main contribution to the 2015 extreme SST event over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean on a developing El Niño condition, which in turn induced the extreme SST event over the tropical Indian Ocean through the atmospheric bridge effect.

The warming effect of the flare of natural gas on soil biological activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yevdokimov, Ilya; Yusupov, Irek; Shavnin, Sergey

2017-04-01

Simulation of global warming is one of the key issues of international efforts to study climatic changes. A number of manipulation experiments with soil warming have been established throughout the world in the last decades. We used warming with natural gas flare near the pine forest as a kind of manipulation experiment to assess the synergistic effect of drying and warming on plant-soil-microbial interactions. The experimental area is situated in a pine forest subzone of the forest zone of the Western Siberia near Pokachi, Yugra (61o73'N, 75o49'E). The experimental plots were established in a young Scotch pine forest on sandy podzolic soil at three distances of 70, 90 and 130 m from the flare of natural gas, with trees exposed to strong (S) moderate (M), and weak (W) impact, respectively. Increase of soil temperature in summer time were moderate: on average 0.7oC and 1.3oC for the plots M and S, respectively, compared to the plot W. The plot S demonstrated increase in CO2 efflux from the soil surface, mainly due to intensifying plant root respiration, by 18% compared to the plot W as well as increase in SOM content by 31%, with intensive accumulation of recalcitrant humus. By contrast, microbial biomass, labile SOM pool and basal respiration were higher in soil with weak flaring impact by 74%, 33% and 24%, respectively. Thus, three trends in plant-soil-microbe system exposed to warming and drying were revealed: i) SOM accumulation, ii) suppression of microbial activity, and iii) stimulation of root respiration. The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation and Russian Foundation for Basic Researches.

Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.

PubMed

Bishop, David

2003-01-01

Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.

The Greenhouse and Anti-Greenhouse Effects on Titan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKay, C. P.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Titan is the largest moon of Saturn and is the only moon in the solar system with a substantial atmosphere. Its atmosphere is mostly made of nitrogen, with a few percent CH4, 0.1% H2 and an uncertain level of Ar (less than 10%). The surface pressure is 1.5 atms and the surface temperature is 95 K, decreasing to 71 at the tropopause before rising to stratospheric temperatures of 180 K. In pressure and composition Titan's atmosphere is the closest twin to Earth's. The surface of Titan remains unknown, hidden by the thick smog layer, but it may be an ocean of liquid methane and ethane. Titan's atmosphere has a greenhouse effect which is much stronger than the Earth's - 92% of the surface warming is due to greenhouse radiation. However an organic smog layer in the upper atmosphere produces an anti-greenhouse effect that cuts the greenhouse warming in half - removing 35% of the incoming solar radiation. Models suggest that during its formation Titan's atmosphere was heated to high temperatures due to accretional energy. This was followed by a cold Triton-like period which gradually warmed to the present conditions. The coupled greenhouse and haze anti-greenhouse may be relevant to recent suggestions for haze shielding of a CH4 - NH3 early atmosphere on Earth or Mars. When the NASA/ESA mission to the Saturn System, Cassini, launches in a few years it will carry a probe that will be sent to the surface of Titan and show us this world that is strange and yet in many ways similar to our own.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, W.; Tuleya, R.E.; Ginis, I.

In this study, the effect of thermodynamic environmental changes on hurricane intensity is extensively investigated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model for a suite of experiments with different initial upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies up to {+-}4 C and sea surface temperatures ranging from 26 to 31 C given the same relative humidity profile. The results indicate that stabilization in the environmental atmosphere and sea surface temperature (SST) increase cause opposing effects on hurricane intensity. The offsetting relationship between the effects of atmospheric stability increase (decrease) and SST increase (decrease) is monotonic and systematic inmore » the parameter space. This implies that hurricane intensity increase due to a possible global warming associated with increased CO{sub 2} is considerably smaller than that expected from warming of the oceanic waters alone. The results also indicate that the intensity of stronger (weaker) hurricanes is more (less) sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes. The model-attained hurricane intensity is found to be well correlated with the maximum surface evaporation and the large-scale environmental convective available potential energy. The model-attained hurricane intensity if highly correlated with the energy available from wet-adiabatic ascent near the eyewall relative to a reference sounding in the undisturbed environment for all the experiments. Coupled hurricane-ocean experiments show that hurricane intensity becomes less sensitive to atmospheric stability and SST changes since the ocean coupling causes larger (smaller) intensity reduction for stronger (weaker) hurricanes. This implies less increase of hurricane intensity related to a possible global warming due to increased CO{sub 2}.« less

Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps

PubMed Central

Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

2011-01-01

This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O3) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics. Presently, ambient ground-level O3 concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO2 Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees. Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation. In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

Thermal Effectiveness of Wall Indoor Fountain in Warm Humid Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seputra, J. A. P.

2018-03-01

Nowadays, many buildings wield indoor water features such as waterfalls, fountains, and water curtains to improve their aesthetical value. Despite the provision of air cooling due to water evaporation, this feature also has adverse effect if applied in warm humid climate since evaporation might increase air humidity beyond the comfort level. Yet, there are no specific researches intended to measure water feature’s effect upon its thermal condition. In response, this research examines the influence of evaporative cooling on indoor wall fountain toward occupant’s thermal comfort in warm humid climate. To achieve this goal, case study is established in Waroeng Steak Restaurant’s dining room in Surakarta-Indonesia. In addition, SNI 03-6572-2001 with comfort range of 20.5–27.1°C and 40-60% of relative humidity is utilized as thermal criterion. Furthermore, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is employed to process the data and derive conclusions. Research variables are; feature’s height, obstructions, and fan types. As results, Two Bumps Model (ToB) is appropriate when employs natural ventilation. However, if the room is mechanically ventilated, Three Bumps Model (TeB) becomes the best choice. Moreover, application of adaptive ventilation is required to maintain thermal balance.

The Global Warming Hiatus Tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Sun, C.

2015-12-01

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the multidcadal variability in NHT including the recent warming hiatus is tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the NAO is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. The CCSM4 model is employed to investigate possible physical mechanisms. The positive NAO forces the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and induces a basin-wide uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming that corresponds to the AMO. The SST field exhibits a delayed response to the preceding enhanced AMOC, and shows a pattern similar to the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), with SST warming in the northern North Atlantic and cooling in the southern part. This SST pattern (negative NAT phase) may lead to an atmospheric response that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy data records. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Environmental change and predator diversity drive alpha and beta diversity in freshwater macro and microorganisms.

PubMed

Antiqueira, Pablo Augusto P; Petchey, Owen L; Dos Santos, Viviane Piccin; de Oliveira, Valéria Maia; Romero, Gustavo Quevedo

2018-05-17

Global biodiversity is eroding due to anthropogenic causes such as climate change, habitat loss, and trophic simplification of biological communities. Most studies address only isolated causes within a single group of organisms; however, biological groups of different trophic levels may respond in particular ways to different environmental impacts. Our study used natural microcosms to investigate the predicted individual and interactive effects of warming, changes in top predator diversity, and habitat size on the alpha and beta diversity of macrofauna, microfauna and bacteria. Alpha diversity (i.e., richness within each bromeliad) generally explained a larger proportion of the gamma diversity (partitioned in alpha and beta diversity). Overall, dissimilarity between communities occurred due to species turnover and not species loss (nestedness). Nevertheless, the three biological groups responded differently to each environmental stressor. Microfauna were the most sensitive group, with alpha and beta diversity being affected by environmental changes (warming and habitat size) and trophic structure (diversity of top predators). Macrofauna alpha and beta diversity was sensitive to changes in predator diversity and habitat size, but not warming. In contrast, the bacterial community was not influenced by the treatments. The community of each biological group was not mutually concordant with the environmental and trophic changes. Our results demonstrate that distinct anthropogenic impacts differentially affect the components of macro and microorganism diversity through direct and indirect effects (i.e., bottom-up and top-down effects). Therefore, a multitrophic and multispecies approach is necessary to assess the effects of different anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L; Fung, Inez Y; Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

2010-01-26

Arctic climate is projected to change dramatically in the next 100 years and increases in temperature will likely lead to changes in the distribution and makeup of the Arctic biosphere. A largely deciduous ecosystem has been suggested as a possible landscape for future Arctic vegetation and is seen in paleo-records of warm times in the past. Here we use a global climate model with an interactive terrestrial biosphere to investigate the effects of adding deciduous trees on bare ground at high northern latitudes. We find that the top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance from enhanced transpiration (associated with the expanded forest cover) is up to 1.5 times larger than the forcing due to albedo change from the forest. Furthermore, the greenhouse warming by additional water vapor melts sea-ice and triggers a positive feedback through changes in ocean albedo and evaporation. Land surface albedo change is considered to be the dominant mechanism by which trees directly modify climate at high-latitudes, but our findings suggest an additional mechanism through transpiration of water vapor and feedbacks from the ocean and sea-ice.

Adult Education and the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Field, John

2008-01-01

Due to the effects of global warming, writes Field, everyone now lives in times of plague, floods, and famine. While the UK government's track record on green issues is not all bad, still it is vulnerable to criticism. In this article, the author discusses what adult education has to offer to the environmental movement, despite existing…

Managing the Future: Public Policy, Scientific Uncertainty, and Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamieson, Dale

Due to the injection of carbon dioxide and various other gasses into the atmosphere, the world of the 21st century may well have a climate that is beyond the parameters of human existence. Physical science produces information regarding the physical effects of increasing concentrations of "greenhouse" gasses. Once this information is…

Seasonally contrasting responses of evapotranspiration to warming and elevated CO2 in a semiarid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is expected to alter seasonal patterns and rates of evapotranspiration (ET) in dry regions. While climate change will involve elevated CO2 and increased temperatures, independently these factors may have different impacts on ET due to their opposing effects on transpiration. We...

Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalmers, N.; Highwood, E. J.; Hawkins, E.; Sutton, R.; Wilcox, L. J.

2012-09-01

The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10 Wm-2 develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate.

Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

PubMed

Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

2015-01-01

Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lee, Woo-Seop

2010-01-01

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

PubMed

de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

2014-07-01

Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China.

PubMed

Shi, Yalan; Cui, Shenghui; Ju, Xiaotang; Cai, Zucong; Zhu, Yong-Guan

2015-01-29

China is mobilizing the largest anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the world due to agricultural, industrial and urban development. However, the climate effects related to Nr in China remain largely unclear. Here we comprehensively estimate that the net climate effects of Nr are -100 ± 414 and 322 ± 163 Tg CO₂e on a GTP₂₀ and a GTP₁₀₀ basis, respectively. Agriculture contributes to warming at 187 ± 108 and 186 ± 56 Tg CO₂e on a 20-y and 100-y basis, respectively, dominated by long-lived nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilized soils. On a 20-y basis, industry contributes to cooling at -287 ± 306 Tg CO₂e, largely owing to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) altering tropospheric ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations. However, these effects are short-lived. The effect of industry converts to warming at 136 ± 107 Tg CO₂e on a 100-y basis, mainly as a result of the reduced carbon (C) sink from the NOx-induced ozone effect on plant damage. On balance, the warming effects of gaseous Nr are partly offset by the cooling effects of N-induced carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The large mitigation potentials through reductions in agricultural N₂O and industrial NOx will accompany by a certain mitigation pressure from limited N-induced C sequestration in the future.

Climate change and its impact on birch pollen quantities and the start of the pollen season an example from Switzerland for the period 1969-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frei, Thomas; Gassner, Ewald

2008-09-01

As published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming is a reality and its impact is huge like the increase of extreme weather events, glacier recession, sea level rise and also effects on human health. Among them allergies to airborne pollen might increase or change in pattern due to the invasion of new allergic plants or due to different behavior of plants like earlier flowering. In this study we used the longest Swiss airborne pollen data set to examine the influence of the temperature increase on the time of flowering. In the case of Basel, where pollen data for 38 years are available, it was shown that due to a temperature increase the start of flowering in the case of birch occurred about 15 days earlier. Apart from a shift of the start of the flowering there is also a trend towards higher annual birch pollen quantities and an increase of the highest daily mean pollen concentrations. Due to global warming and because symptoms may appear earlier in the year people suffering from a pollen allergy might face a new unaccustomed situation.

Seasonal greening of an Arctic ecosystem in response to early snowmelt and climate warming: do plant community responses differ from species responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steltzer, H.; Weintraub, M. N.; Sullivan, P.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Schimel, J.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Shory, R.; Livensperger, C.; Melle, C.; Segal, A. D.; Daly, K.; Tsosie, T.

2011-12-01

In the Arctic and around the world, earlier plant growth and a longer growing season are indications that warmer temperatures or other global changes are changing the seasonality of the Earth's ecosystems. These changes in plant life histories have multi-trophic level consequences that affect food webs and biogeochemical cycles. Both the response of the plant community and of individual species can affect food and habitat resources for animals or nutrient resources for microbes. Our aim was to determine if the response of an Arctic plant community differs from individual species responses to climate change. For two years in an early snowmelt and climate warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra, we observed the seasonal greening of the ecosystem through near-surface measurements of surface greenness and through direct observations of the timing of plant life history events for five to eight common species that differ in growth form. In 2010 when snowmelt was accelerated by 4 days, earlier snowmelt alone or in combination with climate warming extended the life history of the dominant graminoids (E. vaginatum and C. bigelowii) and willow (S. pulchra) by 3 to 4 days. For these species, new leaf production began earlier, while the timing of senescence was similar to the controls. The effect of earlier snowmelt on the life histories of birch (B. nana) and cranberry (V. vitis-idaea) was less, but warming alone tended to increase life history duration. Warming led to earlier leaf expansion for birch and delayed senescence for cranberry. We found that the onset of greening for the plant community began four days earlier, due to the earlier loss of snow cover, and that warming accelerated the rate of greening. Peak season ended 4 days earlier in response to earlier snowmelt and climate warming, due to earlier senescence by birch. In 2011, our manipulation of the snowpack by increasing energy absorption accelerated snowmelt by 15 days and control plots were snowfree on almost the same date as in 2010. As a result greening began earlier and may have led to more varied effects on life history events among the species. In the Arctic, individual species and the plant community green up as soon as the snow is gone, creating food resources and hiding places for animals and a nutrient sink for available nitrogen. If warming temperatures also cue earlier animal development or arrival, resources should be available for most species. However, an early onset to growth can lead to early senescence for some plant species and shift the timing of peak season for the plant community. Animals that depend on late season resources may be affected, unless they can utilize the plant species for which senescence is delayed.

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium

PubMed Central

Rühland, K. M.; Paterson, A. M.; Keller, W.; Michelutti, N.; Smol, J. P.

2013-01-01

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance. PMID:24107529

The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Ralph; Garcia, Hernan

2002-01-01

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone-elevation model.

PubMed

Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

PubMed Central

Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

Atmospheric Sulfur Hexafluoride: Sources, Sinks and Greenhouse Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sze, Nien Dak; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Shia, George; Goldman, Aaron; Murcray, Frank J.; Murcray, David G.; Rinsland, Curtis P.

1993-01-01

Model calculations using estimated reaction rates of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) with OH and 0('D) indicate that the atmospheric lifetime due to these processes may be very long (25,000 years). An upper limit for the UV cross section would suggest a photolysis lifetime much longer than 1000 years. The possibility of other removal mechanisms are discussed. The estimated lifetimes are consistent with other estimated values based on recent laboratory measurements. There appears to be no known natural source of SF6. An estimate of the current production rate of SF6 is about 5 kt/yr. Based on historical emission rates, we calculated a present-day atmospheric concentrations for SF6 of about 2.5 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and compared the results with available atmospheric measurements. It is difficult to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of SF6 based on mass balance of the emission rate and observed abundance. There are large uncertainties concerning what portion of the SF6 is released to the atmosphere. Even if the emission rate were precisely known, it would be difficult to distinguish among lifetimes longer than 100 years since the current abundance of SF6 is due to emission in the past three decades. More information on the measured trends over the past decade and observed vertical and latitudinal distributions of SF6 in the lower stratosphere will help to narrow the uncertainty in the lifetime. Based on laboratory-measured IR absorption cross section for SF6, we showed that SF6 is about 3 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared to CFC 11 on a per molecule basis. However, its effect on atmospheric warming will be minimal because of its very small concentration. We estimated the future concentration of SF6 at 2010 to be 8 and 10 pptv based on two projected emission scenarios. The corresponding equilibrium warming of 0.0035 C and 0.0043 C is to be compared with the estimated warming due to CO2 increase of about 0.8 C in the same period.

Peatland Microbial Carbon Use Under Warming using Isotopic Fractionation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutknecht, J.

2016-12-01

Peatlands are a critical natural resource, especially in their role as carbon sinks. Most of the world's peatlands are located in Northern ecosystems where the climate is changing at a rapid pace, and there is great interest and concern with how climate change will influence them. Although studies regarding the response of peatlands to climate change have emerged, the microbial mediation of C cycling in these systems is still less well understood. In this study, 13CPLFA analysis was used to characterize the microbial community and it's carbon use at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) Project. The SPRUCE project is an extensive study of the response of peatlands to climatic manipulation in the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota. Heating rods were installed in peatland plots where peat is being warmed at several levels including ambient, +2.5, +4.5, +6.75, and +9 degrees Celsius, at a depth of 3 meters, beginning July of 2014. Samples were taken June 2014, September 2014, and June 2015, throughout the depth profile. We found very high microbial, and especially fungal growth at shallow depths, owing in part to the influence of fungal-like lipids present in Sphagnum stems, and in part to dense mycorrhizal colonization in shrub and tree species. Isotopic data shows that microbial biomass has an enriched δ13C lower in the peat profile, indicating as expected that microbes at depth utilize older carbon or carbon more enriched in 13C. The increase over depth in the δ13C signature may also reflect the increased dominance of pre-industrial carbon that is more enriched in 13C. In this early period of warming we did not see clear effects of warming, either due to the highly heterogeneous microbial growth across the bog, or to the short term deep warming only. We expect that with the initiation of aboveground warming in July 2016, warming will begin to show stronger effects on microbial C cycling.

The Vorticity Budgets of North Atlantic Winter Marine Extratropical Cyclones Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azad, R.; Sorteberg, A.

2012-12-01

A partitioned form of the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) tendency equation is employed to examine the composite role of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing mechanisms to the development of North Atlantic winter marine extratropical cyclones. The results provide a further insight into the budgets of near surface cyclonic geostrophic vorticity (CGV) and their evolution during the life cycle of mid-latitude low pressure systems. Of interest are the direct, indirect and net effects of the Z-O forcing mechanisms. The direct effect shows the contribution of each process to the near surface geostrophic vorticity tendency, while the indirect effect implies the contribution from the associated vertical motion and resulting adiabatic cooling or warming. The net effect is the sum of the direct and indirect effects.We found that the vorticity advection term is the largest net contributor to the development of the marine cyclones. The net positive effect of both the temperature advection and latent heating terms is smaller owing to the induced adiabatic cooling which reduces the positive direct contributions. The direct and indirect parts of ageostrophic tendency and friction terms support each other, resulting in significant net contributions at the low center.Comparisons of the composite contributions by the Z-O forcing terms at different pressure levels over the low center indicate that, in agreement with previous studies, the commencement of significant development is accompanied with the upper level cyclonic absolute vorticity advection, upper level warm advection and mid-to low level latent heating. However, during the end of the development, mid-tropospheric net contribution by vorticity advection term and low level warm advection controls the production of CGV. The former is due to both the presence of mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and induced adiabatic warming over the composite low center.

Sustained acceleration of soil carbon decomposition observed in a 6-year warming experiment in a warm-temperate forest in southern Japan.

PubMed

Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John

2016-10-17

To examine global warming's effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (R h ), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on R h . The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on R h (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C -1 . Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C -1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C -1 that we calculated using the annual temperature-efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest.

Global warming and environmental contaminants in aquatic organisms: the need of the etho-toxicology approach.

PubMed

Manciocco, Arianna; Calamandrei, Gemma; Alleva, Enrico

2014-04-01

Environmental contaminants are associated with a wide spectrum of pathological effects. Temperature increase affects ambient distribution and toxicity of these chemicals in the water environment, representing a potentially emerging problem for aquatic species with short-, medium- and long-term repercussions on human health through the food chain. We assessed peer-reviewed literature, including primary studies, review articles and organizational reports available. We focused on studies concerning toxicity of environmental pollutants within a global warming scenario. Existing knowledge on the effects that the increase of water temperature in a contaminated situation has on physiological mechanisms of aquatic organisms is presented. Altogether we consider the potential consequences for the human beings due to fish and shellfish consumption. Finally, we propose an etho-toxicological approach to study the effects of toxicants in conditions of thermal increase, using aquatic organisms as experimental models under laboratory controlled conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

2013-05-01

This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

Temporal variability in Cu speciation, phytotoxicity, and soil microbial activity of Cu-polluted soils as affected by elevated temperature.

PubMed

Fu, Qing-Long; Weng, Nanyan; Fujii, Manabu; Zhou, Dong-Mei

2018-03-01

Global warming has obtained increasing attentions due to its multiple impacts on agro-ecosystem. However, limited efforts had been devoted to reveal the temporal variability of metal speciation and phytotoxicity of heavy metal-polluted soils affected by elevated temperature under the global warming scenario. In this study, effects of elevated temperature (15 °C, 25 °C, and 35 °C) on the physicochemical properties, microbial metabolic activities, and phytotoxicity of three Cu-polluted soils were investigated by a laboratory incubation study. Soil physicochemical properties were observed to be significantly altered by elevated temperature with the degree of temperature effect varying in soil types and incubation time. The Biolog and enzymatic tests demonstrated that soil microbial activities were mainly controlled and decreased with increasing incubation temperature. Moreover, plant assays confirmed that the phytotoxicity and Cu uptake by wheat roots were highly dependent on soil types but less affected by incubation temperature. Overall, the findings in this study have highlighted the importance of soil types to better understand the temperature-dependent alternation of soil properties, Cu speciation and bioavailability, as well as phytotoxicity of Cu-polluted soils under global warming scenario. The present study also suggests the necessary of investigating effects of soil types on the transport and accumulation of toxic elements in soil-crop systems under global warming scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.

2014-12-01

We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming. ReferencesLovejoy, S. (2014a), Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming, Climate Dynamics, 42, 2339-2351 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2128-2. Lovejoy, S. (2014b), Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4704-4710 doi: doi: 10.1002/2014GL060478.

A simple framework for modelling the dependence of bulk Comptonization by turbulence on accretion disc parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, J.; Blaes, O. M.; Hirose, S.

2018-06-01

Warm Comptonization models for the soft X-ray excess in active galactic nuclei (AGN) do not self-consistently explain the relationship between the Comptonizing medium and the underlying accretion disc. Because of this, they cannot directly connect the fitted Comptonization temperatures and optical depths to accretion disc parameters. Since bulk velocities exceed thermal velocities in highly radiation pressure dominated discs, in these systems bulk Comptonization by turbulence may provide a physical basis in the disc itself for warm Comptonization models. We model the dependence of bulk Comptonization on fundamental accretion disc parameters, such as mass, luminosity, radius, spin, inner boundary condition, and α. In addition to constraining warm Comptonization models, our model can help distinguish contributions from bulk Comptonization to the soft X-ray excess from those due to other physical mechanisms, such as absorption and reflection. By linking the time variability of bulk Comptonization to fluctuations in the disc vertical structure due to magnetorotational instability (MRI) turbulence, our results show that observations of the soft X-ray excess can be used to study disc turbulence in the radiation pressure dominated regime. Because our model connects bulk Comptonization to 1D vertical structure temperature profiles in a physically intuitive way, it will be useful for understanding this effect in future simulations run in new regimes.

Observations of OH-airglow from ground, aircraft, and satellite during the GW-LCYCLE campaign: investigation of different wave types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wüst, Sabine; Schmidt, Carsten; Hannawald, Patrick; Offenwanger, Thomas; Sedlak, René; Bittner, Michael; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

2017-04-01

During the GW-LCYCLE campaign from January to February 2016 in Northern Scandinavia, we operated four instruments: two ground-based OH* IR-spectrometers (scanning and non-scanning mode at ALOMAR (69°N), Norway, and Kiruna (68°N), Sweden) and one ground-based OH* IR all-sky camera (at Kiruna) as well as one OH* IR-camera on board the research aircraft FALCON (field of view ca. 30°, spatial resolution 150 m x 150 m). Due to the differing spatial and temporal resolution of the instruments, this equipment allows the investigation of temporal and spatial gravity wave parameters in a wide spectral range. The flights of the research aircraft provide the opportunity to investigate gravity waves in between both measurement sites. During the campaign period, the dynamical situation changed due to a minor stratospheric warming. The effect of this warming on the OH*-layer is investigated using TIMED-SABER data. We provide an overview of the development of planetary and gravity wave parameters and energy density at mesopause height during the campaign period and present first results of the airborne measurements. Finally, we discuss possible wave sources and the influence of the stratospheric warming on wave parameters, and propagation.

Shifting grassland plant community structure drives positive interactive effects of warming and diversity on aboveground net primary productivity.

PubMed

Cowles, Jane M; Wragg, Peter D; Wright, Alexandra J; Powers, Jennifer S; Tilman, David

2016-02-01

Ecosystems worldwide are increasingly impacted by multiple drivers of environmental change, including climate warming and loss of biodiversity. We show, using a long-term factorial experiment, that plant diversity loss alters the effects of warming on productivity. Aboveground primary productivity was increased by both high plant diversity and warming, and, in concert, warming (≈1.5 °C average above and belowground warming over the growing season) and diversity caused a greater than additive increase in aboveground productivity. The aboveground warming effects increased over time, particularly at higher levels of diversity, perhaps because of warming-induced increases in legume and C4 bunch grass abundances, and facilitative feedbacks of these species on productivity. Moreover, higher plant diversity was associated with the amelioration of warming-induced environmental conditions. This led to cooler temperatures, decreased vapor pressure deficit, and increased surface soil moisture in higher diversity communities. Root biomass (0-30 cm) was likewise consistently greater at higher plant diversity and was greater with warming in monocultures and at intermediate diversity, but at high diversity warming had no detectable effect. This may be because warming increased the abundance of legumes, which have lower root : shoot ratios than the other types of plants. In addition, legumes increase soil nitrogen (N) supply, which could make N less limiting to other species and potentially decrease their investment in roots. The negative warming × diversity interaction on root mass led to an overall negative interactive effect of these two global change factors on the sum of above and belowground biomass, and thus likely on total plant carbon stores. In total, plant diversity increased the effect of warming on aboveground net productivity and moderated the effect on root mass. These divergent effects suggest that warming and changes in plant diversity are likely to have both interactive and divergent impacts on various aspects of ecosystem functioning. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

FY 2011 4th Quarter Metric: Estimate of Future Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, D

2011-09-21

The global and annual mean aerosol direct and indirect effects, relative to 1850 conditions, estimated from CESM simulations are 0.02 W m-2 and -0.39 W m-2, respectively, for emissions in year 2100 under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The indirect effect is much smaller than that for 2000 emissions because of much smaller SO2 emissions in 2100; the direct effects are small due to compensation between warming by black carbon and cooling by sulfate.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Suggitt, Andrew J; Wilson, Robert J; Duffy, James P; Bennie, Jonathan J

2017-01-01

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Cloud-Microphysics on Tropical Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes in the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

2004-01-01

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud-microphysics is investigated using the NASA GEOS GCM. Results show that a faster autoconversion - rate produces more warm rain and less clouds at all levels. Fewer clouds enhances longwave cooling and reduces shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces increased condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical heating differential destablizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain over the tropics. The feedback is maintained via a two-cell secondary circulation. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the melting/freezing, with rising motion in the warm rain region connected to descending motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the freezing/melting level, with longwave-induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. The tropical large scale circulation is found to be very sensitive to the radiative-dynamic effects induced by changes in autoconversion rate. Reduced cloud-radiation processes feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden and Julian Oscillations (MJO). Conversely,-a slower autconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJO's with more realistic westward propagating transients, resembling a supercloud cluster structure. Results suggests that warm rain and associated low and mid level clouds, i.e., cumulus congestus, may play a critical role in regulating the time-intervals of deep convections and hence the fundamental time scales of the MJO.

Force Projection, Strategic Agility and the Big Meltdown

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-18

UNLIMITED Number of Pages 29 ii Abstract of FORCE PROJECTION, STRATEGIC AGILITY AND THE BIG MELTDOWN Due to global warming , the polar icepack which...INTRODUCTION The polar icecap which covers the Arctic Ocean is melting. It is a well-known, scientific fact. Global warming is the generally...operational factors and functions, as applicable. 3 CHAPTER II BACKGROUND Global Warming and the Arctic During this and the last century, researchers have

Sustained acceleration of soil carbon decomposition observed in a 6-year warming experiment in a warm-temperate forest in southern Japan

PubMed Central

Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John

2016-01-01

To examine global warming’s effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on Rh. The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on Rh (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C−1. Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C−1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C−1 that we calculated using the annual temperature–efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest. PMID:27748424

Hurricanes benefit bleached corals

PubMed Central

Manzello, Derek P.; Brandt, Marilyn; Smith, Tyler B.; Lirman, Diego; Hendee, James C.; Nemeth, Richard S.

2007-01-01

Recent, global mass-mortalities of reef corals due to record warm sea temperatures have led researchers to consider global warming as one of the most significant threats to the persistence of coral reef ecosystems. The passage of a hurricane can alleviate thermal stress on coral reefs, highlighting the potential for hurricane-associated cooling to mitigate climate change impacts. We provide evidence that hurricane-induced cooling was responsible for the documented differences in the extent and recovery time of coral bleaching between the Florida Reef Tract and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the Caribbean-wide 2005 bleaching event. These results are the only known scenario where the effects of a hurricane can benefit a stressed marine community. PMID:17606914

Hurricanes benefit bleached corals.

PubMed

Manzello, Derek P; Brandt, Marilyn; Smith, Tyler B; Lirman, Diego; Hendee, James C; Nemeth, Richard S

2007-07-17

Recent, global mass-mortalities of reef corals due to record warm sea temperatures have led researchers to consider global warming as one of the most significant threats to the persistence of coral reef ecosystems. The passage of a hurricane can alleviate thermal stress on coral reefs, highlighting the potential for hurricane-associated cooling to mitigate climate change impacts. We provide evidence that hurricane-induced cooling was responsible for the documented differences in the extent and recovery time of coral bleaching between the Florida Reef Tract and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the Caribbean-wide 2005 bleaching event. These results are the only known scenario where the effects of a hurricane can benefit a stressed marine community.

Ocean acidification exerts negative effects during warming conditions in a developing Antarctic fish

PubMed Central

Flynn, Erin E; Bjelde, Brittany E; Miller, Nathan A

2015-01-01

Abstract Anthropogenic CO2 is rapidly causing oceans to become warmer and more acidic, challenging marine ectotherms to respond to simultaneous changes in their environment. While recent work has highlighted that marine fishes, particularly during early development, can be vulnerable to ocean acidification, we lack an understanding of how life-history strategies, ecosystems and concurrent ocean warming interplay with interspecific susceptibility. To address the effects of multiple ocean changes on cold-adapted, slowly developing fishes, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature on the embryonic physiology of an Antarctic dragonfish (Gymnodraco acuticeps), with protracted embryogenesis (∼10 months). Using an integrative, experimental approach, our research examined the impacts of near-future warming [−1 (ambient) and 2°C (+3°C)] and ocean acidification [420 (ambient), 650 (moderate) and 1000 μatm pCO2 (high)] on survival, development and metabolic processes over the course of 3 weeks in early development. In the presence of increased pCO2 alone, embryonic mortality did not increase, with greatest overall survival at the highest pCO2. Furthermore, embryos were significantly more likely to be at a later developmental stage at high pCO2 by 3 weeks relative to ambient pCO2. However, in combined warming and ocean acidification scenarios, dragonfish embryos experienced a dose-dependent, synergistic decrease in survival and developed more slowly. We also found significant interactions between temperature, pCO2 and time in aerobic enzyme activity (citrate synthase). Increased temperature alone increased whole-organism metabolic rate (O2 consumption) and developmental rate and slightly decreased osmolality at the cost of increased mortality. Our findings suggest that developing dragonfish are more sensitive to ocean warming and may experience negative physiological effects of ocean acidification only in the presence of an increased temperature. In addition to reduced hatching success, alterations in development and metabolism due to ocean warming and acidification could have negative ecological consequences owing to changes in phenology (i.e. early hatching) in the highly seasonal Antarctic ecosystem. PMID:27293718

Ocean acidification exerts negative effects during warming conditions in a developing Antarctic fish.

PubMed

Flynn, Erin E; Bjelde, Brittany E; Miller, Nathan A; Todgham, Anne E

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic CO2 is rapidly causing oceans to become warmer and more acidic, challenging marine ectotherms to respond to simultaneous changes in their environment. While recent work has highlighted that marine fishes, particularly during early development, can be vulnerable to ocean acidification, we lack an understanding of how life-history strategies, ecosystems and concurrent ocean warming interplay with interspecific susceptibility. To address the effects of multiple ocean changes on cold-adapted, slowly developing fishes, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature on the embryonic physiology of an Antarctic dragonfish (Gymnodraco acuticeps), with protracted embryogenesis (∼10 months). Using an integrative, experimental approach, our research examined the impacts of near-future warming [-1 (ambient) and 2°C (+3°C)] and ocean acidification [420 (ambient), 650 (moderate) and 1000 μatm pCO2 (high)] on survival, development and metabolic processes over the course of 3 weeks in early development. In the presence of increased pCO2 alone, embryonic mortality did not increase, with greatest overall survival at the highest pCO2. Furthermore, embryos were significantly more likely to be at a later developmental stage at high pCO2 by 3 weeks relative to ambient pCO2. However, in combined warming and ocean acidification scenarios, dragonfish embryos experienced a dose-dependent, synergistic decrease in survival and developed more slowly. We also found significant interactions between temperature, pCO2 and time in aerobic enzyme activity (citrate synthase). Increased temperature alone increased whole-organism metabolic rate (O2 consumption) and developmental rate and slightly decreased osmolality at the cost of increased mortality. Our findings suggest that developing dragonfish are more sensitive to ocean warming and may experience negative physiological effects of ocean acidification only in the presence of an increased temperature. In addition to reduced hatching success, alterations in development and metabolism due to ocean warming and acidification could have negative ecological consequences owing to changes in phenology (i.e. early hatching) in the highly seasonal Antarctic ecosystem.

Competing influence of greenhouse warming and aerosols on thermodynamic and dynamic controls of the Asian monoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, W. K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2016-12-01

In this study, we investigate the relative roles of greenhouse gas (GHG) warming and aerosol forcing on the Asian monsoon. A baseline for global warming response is established from analysis of the multi-model mean (MMM) of 33 CMIP5 models based on a 140-year integration of 1% per year CO2 experiment. The relative roles of GHG warming and aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon precipitation changes are then assessed based on the 20th century historical runs, under a) all-forcing including GHG and aerosols, and b) GHG only. Results show that under CO2 warming, the Asian monsoon atmosphere can get wetter, no change, or drier regionally, depending on changes in moisture availability, atmospheric moist static stability, and topography. Rainfall is generally increased over the Asian monsoon tropical land and adjacent oceanic regions. However, in subtropical and extratropical land region over East Asia, monsoon rainfall increase is minimal, unchanged, or even suppressed. This is due to increased subsidence, and reduction of mid-tropopsheric relative humidity from an enhanced Hadley circulation, which weakens the monsoon meridional overturning circulation. These create the apparent paradox of a monsoon with increased rainfall, but weakened monsoon circulation under GHG warming. The monsoon response to GHG-only forcing in the historical run is similar to the baseline. On the other hand, as inferred from the difference of the all-forcing and the GHG-only runs, aerosols through solar dimming (SDM) and semi-direct effects suppress monsoon precipitation, causing a further weakening of the Asian monsoon. A scale analysis of precipitation shows that under a hypothetical GHG-only forcing in the past century, the "effective precipitation efficiency" (EPE) would have to be strongly reduced in order to achieve water balance between dynamics and thermodynamics. Under all-forcing (including aerosol), the reduction in EPE is much smaller. Here, the weaker monsoon circulation needed for water balance can be achieved via the aerosol semi-direct effect in increased atmospheric stability, and aerosol solar dimming effect in lessening the GHG induced land-sea thermal contrast between Eurasia and the surrounding oceans.

Modeling the air-sea feedback system of Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullen, Julie; Caldeira, Rui; Doyle, James D.; May, Paul; Tomé, Ricardo

2017-07-01

A realistic nested data-assimilating two-way coupled ocean/atmosphere modeling study (highest resolution 2 km) of Madeira Island was conducted for June 2011, when conditions were favorable for atmospheric vortex shedding. The simulation's island lee region exhibited relatively cloud-free conditions, promoting warmer ocean temperatures (˜2°C higher than adjacent waters). The model reasonably reproduced measured fields at 14 meteorological stations, and matched the dimensions and magnitude of the warm sea surface temperature (SST) wake imaged by satellite. The warm SSTs in the wake are shown to imprint onto the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over several diurnal cycles by modulating the ABL depth up to ˜200-500 m. The erosion and dissipation of the warm ocean wake overnight was aided by atmospheric drainage flow and offshore advection of cold air (ΔT = 2°C) that produced strong upward heat fluxes (˜50 W/m2 sensible and ˜250 W/m2 latent) on an episodic basis. Nevertheless, the warm wake was never entirely eroded at night due to the cumulative effect of the diurnal cycle. The spatial pattern of the diurnal warming varied day-to-day in location and extent. Significant mutual interaction of the oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers was diagnosed via fluxes and temperature cross sections and reinforced by sensitivity runs. The simulation produces for the first time the interactive nature of the ocean and atmosphere boundary layers in the warm wake region of an island with complex terrain.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Teetering Stars: Resonant Excitation of Stellar Obliquities by Hot and Warm Jupiters with External Companions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Kassandra; Lai, Dong

2018-04-01

Stellar spin-orbit misalignments (obliquities) in hot Jupiter systems have been extensively probed in recent years thanks to Rossiter-McLaughlin observations. Such obliquities may reveal clues about hot Jupiter dynamical and migration histories. Common explanations for generating stellar obliquities include high-eccentricity migration, or primordial disk misalignment. This talk investigates another mechanism for producing stellar spin-orbit misalignments in systems hosting a close-in giant planet with an external, inclined planetary companion. Spin-orbit misalignment may be excited due to a secular resonance, occurring when the precession rate of the stellar spin axis (due to the inner orbit) becomes comparable to the precession rate of the inner orbital axis (due to the outer companion). Due to the spin-down of the host star via magnetic braking, this resonance may be achieved at some point during the star's main sequence lifetime for a wide range of giant planet masses and orbital architectures. We focus on both hot Jupiters (with orbital periods less than ten days) and warm Jupiters (with orbital periods around tens of days), and identify the outer perburber properties needed to generate substantial obliquities via resonant excitation, in terms of mass, separation, and inclination. For hot Jupiters, the stellar spin axis is strongly coupled to the orbital axis, and resonant excitation of obliquity requires a close perturber, located within 1-2 AU. For warm Jupiters, the spin and orbital axes are more weakly coupled, and the resonance may be achieved for more distant perturbers (at several to tens of AU). Resonant excitation of the stellar obliquity is accompanied by a decrease in the planets' mutual orbital inclination, and can thus erase high mutual inclinations in two-planet systems. Since many warm Jupiters are known to have outer planetary companions at several AU or beyond, stellar obliquities in warm Jupiter systems may be common, regardless of the formation/migration mechanism. Future observations probing warm Jupiter obliquities may indicate the presence of a hitherto undetected outer companion.

Effects of open-field experimental warming on the growth of two-year-old Pinus densiflora and Abies holophylla seedlings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, S.; Son, Y.; Lee, S.; Jo, W.; Yoon, T.; Park, C.; Ko, S.; Kim, J.; Han, S.; Jung, Y.

2012-12-01

Temperature increase due to climate change is expected to affect tree growth and distribution [Way and Oren, 2010]. The responses of trees to warming vary with tree species, ontogenic stages, tree life forms, and biomes. Especially, seedling stage is a vulnerable period for tree survival and competition [Saxe et al., 2007] and thus research on effects of temperature increase on seedling stage is needed. We aimed to examine the responses of coniferous seedlings to future temperature increase by conducting an open-field warming experiment. An experimental warming set-up using infra-red heater was built in 2011 and the temperature in warming plots has been regulated to 3°C higher than that of control plots constantly. The seeds of Pinus densiflora and Abies holophylla were planted in each 1 m × 1 m plot (n=3) in April, 2012. Seedling growth, root collar diameter (RCD) and height of 45 individuals of each plot were measured in June and July, 2012. The survival rate of seedlings was also measured. Survival rate of P. densiflora was lower in warming plots (93.3%) than in control plots (100.0%, p<0.05) and that of A. holophylla was also decreased in warming plots (79.3%) than in control plots (97.0%, p<0.01). RCD and height of P. densiflora seedlings were not significantly different between control and warming plots, however, height of A. holophylla was significantly higher in warming plots in June and July (p<0.01). Comparatively, RCD of A. holophylla was only higher in control plots in June. While there is still a lack of case studies on the growth of seedlings under experimental warming, a few studies reported increased seedling growth [Yin et al., 2008] or and no difference [Han et al., 2009] in warming plots. Different responses of seedling growth between two species of the current study might be derived from species-specific acclimation to temperature increase and/or other limiting factors [Way and Oren, 2010]. This result is, to our knowledge, unprecedented and will contribute to the knowledge of species-specific growth response of tree species and to development of model predicting species distribution in future climate regime. Future work on physiological traits of seedlings and analysis on environmental factors will provide mechanism of seedling response to increased temperature. [This work was supported by 'Korea Forest Service (S111112L080110)'.

Long-term empirical evidence of ocean warming leading to tropicalization of fish communities, increased herbivory, and loss of kelp

PubMed Central

Vergés, Adriana; Doropoulos, Christopher; Malcolm, Hamish A.; Skye, Mathew; Garcia-Pizá, Marina; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Hoey, Andrew S.; Vila-Concejo, Ana; Steinberg, Peter D.

2016-01-01

Some of the most profound effects of climate change on ecological communities are due to alterations in species interactions rather than direct physiological effects of changing environmental conditions. Empirical evidence of historical changes in species interactions within climate-impacted communities is, however, rare and difficult to obtain. Here, we demonstrate the recent disappearance of key habitat-forming kelp forests from a warming tropical–temperate transition zone in eastern Australia. Using a 10-y video dataset encompassing a 0.6 °C warming period, we show how herbivory increased as kelp gradually declined and then disappeared. Concurrently, fish communities from sites where kelp was originally abundant but subsequently disappeared became increasingly dominated by tropical herbivores. Feeding assays identified two key tropical/subtropical herbivores that consumed transplanted kelp within hours at these sites. There was also a distinct increase in the abundance of fishes that consume epilithic algae, and much higher bite rates by this group at sites without kelp, suggesting a key role for these fishes in maintaining reefs in kelp-free states by removing kelp recruits. Changes in kelp abundance showed no direct relationship to seawater temperatures over the decade and were also unrelated to other measured abiotic factors (nutrients and storms). Our results show that warming-mediated increases in fish herbivory pose a significant threat to kelp-dominated ecosystems in Australia and, potentially, globally. PMID:27849585

Long-term empirical evidence of ocean warming leading to tropicalization of fish communities, increased herbivory, and loss of kelp.

PubMed

Vergés, Adriana; Doropoulos, Christopher; Malcolm, Hamish A; Skye, Mathew; Garcia-Pizá, Marina; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M; Campbell, Alexandra H; Ballesteros, Enric; Hoey, Andrew S; Vila-Concejo, Ana; Bozec, Yves-Marie; Steinberg, Peter D

2016-11-29

Some of the most profound effects of climate change on ecological communities are due to alterations in species interactions rather than direct physiological effects of changing environmental conditions. Empirical evidence of historical changes in species interactions within climate-impacted communities is, however, rare and difficult to obtain. Here, we demonstrate the recent disappearance of key habitat-forming kelp forests from a warming tropical-temperate transition zone in eastern Australia. Using a 10-y video dataset encompassing a 0.6 °C warming period, we show how herbivory increased as kelp gradually declined and then disappeared. Concurrently, fish communities from sites where kelp was originally abundant but subsequently disappeared became increasingly dominated by tropical herbivores. Feeding assays identified two key tropical/subtropical herbivores that consumed transplanted kelp within hours at these sites. There was also a distinct increase in the abundance of fishes that consume epilithic algae, and much higher bite rates by this group at sites without kelp, suggesting a key role for these fishes in maintaining reefs in kelp-free states by removing kelp recruits. Changes in kelp abundance showed no direct relationship to seawater temperatures over the decade and were also unrelated to other measured abiotic factors (nutrients and storms). Our results show that warming-mediated increases in fish herbivory pose a significant threat to kelp-dominated ecosystems in Australia and, potentially, globally.

Black carbon reduction will weaken the aerosol net cooling effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. L.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X. Y.

2014-12-01

Black carbon (BC), a distinct type of carbonaceous material formed from the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass based fuels under certain conditions, can interact with solar radiation and clouds through its strong light-absorption ability, thereby warming the Earth's climate system. Some studies have even suggested that global warming could be slowed down in a short term by eliminating BC emission due to its short lifetime. In this study, we estimate the influence of removing some sources of BC and other co-emitted species on the aerosol radiative effect by using an aerosol-climate coupled model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero, in combination with the aerosol emissions from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We find that the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) will be enhanced by 0.12 W m-2 compared with present-day conditions if the BC emission is reduced exclusively to the level projected for 2100 based on the RCP2.6 scenario. This will be beneficial for the mitigation of global warming. However, the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the TOA will be weakened by 1.7-2.0 W m-2 relative to present-day conditions if emissions of BC and co-emitted sulfur dioxide and organic carbon are simultaneously reduced as the most close conditions to the actual situation to the level projected for 2100 in different ways based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Because there are no effective ways to remove the BC exclusively without influencing the other co-emitted components, our results therefore indicate that a reduction in BC emission can lead to an unexpected warming on the Earth's climate system in the future.

Energy, atmospheric chemistry, and global climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levine, Joel S.

1991-01-01

Global atmospheric changes due to ozone destruction and the greenhouse effect are discussed. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is reviewed, including its judgements regarding global warming and its recommendations for improving predictive capability. The chemistry of ozone destruction and the global atmospheric budget of nitrous oxide are reviewed, and the global sources of nitrous oxide are described.

Invasive species and disturbances: Current and future roles of Forest Service Research and Development

Treesearch

Jim Slavicek; Allen M. Solomon

2010-01-01

The success of an invasive species is in large part due to favorable conditions resulting from the complex interactions among natural and anthropogenic factors such as native and nonnative pests, fires, droughts, hurricanes, wind storms, ice storms, climate warming, management practices, human travel, and trade. Reducing the negative effects of invasive species and...

Climate change and the possible health effects on older Australians.

PubMed

Saniotis, Arthur; Irvine, Rod

2010-01-01

Climate change is an important issue for Australia. Climate change research forecasts that Australia will experience accelerated warming due to anthrogenic activities. Australia's aging society will face special challenges that demand current attention. This paper discusses two issues in relation to climate change and older Australians: first, pharmacology and autoregulation; and second, mental health among older Australians.

Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makkonen, R.; Asmi, A.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Boy, M.; Arneth, A.; Hari, P.; Kulmala, M.

2011-09-01

The number of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The total aerosol forcing (-1.61 W m-2 in year 2000) is simulated to be greatly reduced in the future, to -0.23 W m-2, mainly due to decrease in SO2 emissions and resulting decrease in new particle formation. With the total aerosol forcing decreasing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.

Biogeochemical Impact of Snow Cover and Cyclonic Intrusions on the Winter Weddell Sea Ice Pack

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tison, J.-L.; Schwegmann, S.; Dieckmann, G.; Rintala, J.-M.; Meyer, H.; Moreau, S.; Vancoppenolle, M.; Nomura, D.; Engberg, S.; Blomster, L. J.; Hendrickx, S.; Uhlig, C.; Luhtanen, A.-M.; de Jong, J.; Janssens, J.; Carnat, G.; Zhou, J.; Delille, B.

2017-12-01

Sea ice is a dynamic biogeochemical reactor and a double interface actively interacting with both the atmosphere and the ocean. However, proper understanding of its annual impact on exchanges, and therefore potentially on the climate, notably suffer from the paucity of autumnal and winter data sets. Here we present the results of physical and biogeochemical investigations on winter Antarctic pack ice in the Weddell Sea (R. V. Polarstern AWECS cruise, June-August 2013) which are compared with those from two similar studies conducted in the area in 1986 and 1992. The winter 2013 was characterized by a warm sea ice cover due to the combined effects of deep snow and frequent warm cyclones events penetrating southward from the open Southern Ocean. These conditions were favorable to high ice permeability and cyclic events of brine movements within the sea ice cover (brine tubes), favoring relatively high chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. We discuss the timing of this algal activity showing that arguments can be presented in favor of continued activity during the winter due to the specific physical conditions. Large-scale sea ice model simulations also suggest a context of increasingly deep snow, warm ice, and large brine fractions across the three observational years, despite the fact that the model is forced with a snowfall climatology. This lends support to the claim that more severe Antarctic sea ice conditions, characterized by a longer ice season, thicker, and more concentrated ice are sufficient to increase the snow depth and, somehow counterintuitively, to warm the ice.

Global Warming: Predicting OPEC Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Petroleum Consumption Using Neural Network and Hybrid Cuckoo Search Algorithm

PubMed Central

Chiroma, Haruna; Abdul-kareem, Sameem; Khan, Abdullah; Nawi, Nazri Mohd.; Gital, Abdulsalam Ya’u; Shuib, Liyana; Abubakar, Adamu I.; Rahman, Muhammad Zubair; Herawan, Tutut

2015-01-01

Background Global warming is attracting attention from policy makers due to its impacts such as floods, extreme weather, increases in temperature by 0.7°C, heat waves, storms, etc. These disasters result in loss of human life and billions of dollars in property. Global warming is believed to be caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities including the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from petroleum consumption. Limitations of the previous methods of predicting CO2 emissions and lack of work on the prediction of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) CO2 emissions from petroleum consumption have motivated this research. Methods/Findings The OPEC CO2 emissions data were collected from the Energy Information Administration. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) adaptability and performance motivated its choice for this study. To improve effectiveness of the ANN, the cuckoo search algorithm was hybridised with accelerated particle swarm optimisation for training the ANN to build a model for the prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions. The proposed model predicts OPEC CO2 emissions for 3, 6, 9, 12 and 16 years with an improved accuracy and speed over the state-of-the-art methods. Conclusion An accurate prediction of OPEC CO2 emissions can serve as a reference point for propagating the reorganisation of economic development in OPEC member countries with the view of reducing CO2 emissions to Kyoto benchmarks—hence, reducing global warming. The policy implications are discussed in the paper. PMID:26305483

An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

PubMed

Euskirchen, Eugénie S; Goodstein, Eban S; Huntington, Henry P

2013-12-01

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

How does warming affect carbon allocation, respiration and residence time in trees? An isotope tracer approach in a eucalypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendall, E.; Drake, J. E.; Furze, M.; Barton, C. V.; Carillo, Y.; Richter, A.; Tjoelker, M. G.

2017-12-01

Climate warming has the potential to alter the balance between photosynthetic carbon assimilation and respiratory losses in forest trees, leading to uncertainty in predicting their future physiological functioning. In a previous experiment, warming decreased canopy CO2 assimilation (A) rates of Eucalyptus tereticornis trees, but respiration (R) rates were usually not significantly affected, due to physiological acclimation to temperature. This led to a slight increase in (R/A) and thus decrease in plant carbon use efficiency with climate warming. In contrast to carbon fluxes, the effect of warming on carbon allocation and residence time in trees has received less attention. We conducted a study to test the hypothesis that warming would decrease the allocation of C belowground owing to reduced cost of nutrient uptake. E. parramattensis trees were grown in the field in unique whole-tree chambers operated at ambient and ambient +3 °C temperature treatments (n=3 per treatment). We applied a 13CO2 pulse and followed the label in CO2 respired from leaves, roots, canopy and soil, in plant sugars, and in rhizosphere microbes over a 3-week period in conjunction with measurements of tree growth. The 9-m tall, 57 m3 whole-tree chambers were monitored for CO2 concentrations in independent canopy and below ground (root and soil) compartments; periodic monitoring of δ13C values in air in the compartments allowed us to quantify the amount of 13CO2 assimilated and respired by each tree. Warmed trees grew faster and assimilated more of the label than control trees, but the 13C allocation to canopy, root and soil respiration was not altered. However, warming appeared to reduce the residence time of carbon respired from leaves, and especially from roots and soil, indicating that autotrophic respiration has the potential to feedback to climate change. This experiment provides insights into how warming may affect the fate of assimilated carbon from the leaf to the ecosystem scale.

Combined global change effects on ecosystem processesin nine U.S. topographically complex areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartman, Melannie D.; Baron, Jill S.; Ewing, Holly A.; Weathers, Kathleen

2014-01-01

Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds in the United States. Net ecosystem production (NEP) increased linearly with increasing N deposition for six out of seven forested watersheds; warming directly increased NEP at only two of these sites. Warming reduced soil organic carbon storage at all sites by increasing heterotrophic respiration. At most sites, warming together with high N deposition increased nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions enough to negate the greenhouse benefit of soil carbon sequestration alone, though there was a net greenhouse gas sink across nearly all sites mainly due to the effect of CO2 fertilization and associated sequestration by plants. Over the simulation period, an increase in atmospheric CO2 from 350 to 600 ppm was the main driver of change in net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration at all forested sites and one of two alpine sites, but an additional increase in CO2 from 600 to 760 ppm produced smaller effects. Warming either increased or decreased net greenhouse gas sequestration, depending on the site. The N contribution to net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration averaged across forest sites was only 5–7 % and was negligible for the alpine. Stream nitrate (NO3−) fluxes increased sharply with N-loading, primarily at three watersheds where initial N deposition values were high relative to terrestrial N uptake capacity. The simulated results displayed fewer synergistic responses to warming, N-loading, and CO2 fertilization than expected. Overall, simulations with DayCent-Chem suggest individual site characteristics and historical patterns of N deposition are important determinants of forest or alpine ecosystem responses to global change.

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century

PubMed Central

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-01-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910–1930 to 1990–2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991–1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997–2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed ‘greening of the Arctic’ which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. PMID:25788025

Winter warming as an important co-driver for Betula nana growth in western Greenland during the past century.

PubMed

Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo

2015-06-01

Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.

PubMed

Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J

2018-05-09

Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Warming of intravenous and irrigation fluids for preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia.

PubMed

Campbell, Gillian; Alderson, Phil; Smith, Andrew F; Warttig, Sheryl

2015-04-13

Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (a drop in core temperature to below 36°C) occurs because of interference with normal temperature regulation by anaesthetic drugs, exposure of skin for prolonged periods and receipt of large volumes of intravenous and irrigation fluids. If the temperature of these fluids is below core body temperature, they can cause significant heat loss. Warming intravenous and irrigation fluids to core body temperature or above might prevent some of this heat loss and subsequent hypothermia. To estimate the effectiveness of preoperative or intraoperative warming, or both, of intravenous and irrigation fluids in preventing perioperative hypothermia and its complications during surgery in adults. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2014, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid SP (1956 to 4 February 2014), EMBASE Ovid SP (1982 to 4 February 2014), the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (1950 to 4 February 2014), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) EBSCOhost (1980 to 4 February 2014) and reference lists of identified articles. We also searched the Current Controlled Trials website and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials or quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing fluid warming methods versus standard care or versus other warming methods used to maintain normothermia. Two review authors independently extracted data from eligible trials and settled disputes with a third review author. We contacted study authors to ask for additional details when needed. We collected data on adverse events only if they were reported in the trials. We included in this review 24 studies with a total of 1250 participants. The trials included various numbers and types of participants. Investigators used a range of methods to warm fluids to temperatures between 37°C and 41°C. We found that evidence was of moderate quality because descriptions of trial design were often unclear, resulting in high or unclear risk of bias due to inappropriate or unclear randomization and blinding procedures. These factors may have influenced results in some way. Our protocol specified the risk of hypothermia as the primary outcome; as no trials reported this, we decided to include data related to mean core temperature. The only secondary outcome reported in the trials that provided useable data was shivering. Evidence was unclear regarding the effects of fluid warming on bleeding. No data were reported on our other specified outcomes of cardiovascular complications, infection, pressure ulcers, bleeding, mortality, length of stay, unplanned intensive care admission and adverse events.Researchers found that warmed intravenous fluids kept the core temperature of study participants about half a degree warmer than that of participants given room temperature intravenous fluids at 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes, and at the end of surgery. Warmed intravenous fluids also further reduced the risk of shivering compared with room temperature intravenous fluidsInvestigators reported no statistically significant differences in core body temperature or shivering between individuals given warmed and room temperature irrigation fluids. Warm intravenous fluids appear to keep patients warmer during surgery than room temperature fluids. It is unclear whether the actual differences in temperature are clinically meaningful, or if other benefits or harms are associated with the use of warmed fluids. It is also unclear if using fluid warming in addition to other warming methods confers any benefit, as a ceiling effect is likely when multiple methods of warming are used.

Warming effects on greenhouse gas fluxes in peatlands are modulated by vegetation composition.

PubMed

Ward, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J; Oakley, Simon; Quirk, Helen; Henrys, Peter A; Bardgett, Richard D

2013-10-01

Understanding the effects of warming on greenhouse gas feedbacks to climate change represents a major global challenge. Most research has focused on direct effects of warming, without considering how concurrent changes in plant communities may alter such effects. Here, we combined vegetation manipulations with warming to investigate their interactive effects on greenhouse gas emissions from peatland. We found that although warming consistently increased respiration, the effect on net ecosystem CO2 exchange depended on vegetation composition. The greatest increase in CO2 sink strength after warming was when shrubs were present, and the greatest decrease when graminoids were present. CH4 was more strongly controlled by vegetation composition than by warming, with largest emissions from graminoid communities. Our results show that plant community composition is a significant modulator of greenhouse gas emissions and their response to warming, and suggest that vegetation change could alter peatland carbon sink strength under future climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Nitrogen and harvest impact on warm-season grasses biomass yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Perennial warm-season grasses have drawn interest as bioenergy feedstocks due to their high productivity with minimal amounts of inputs while producing multiple environmental benefits. Nitrogen (N) fertility and harvest timing are critical management practices when optimizing biomass yield of these ...

Modeled Impact of Cirrus Cloud Increases Along Aircraft Flight Paths

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David; Lonergan, P.; Shah, K.

1999-01-01

The potential impact of contrails and alterations in the lifetime of background cirrus due to subsonic airplane water and aerosol emissions has been investigated in a set of experiments using the GISS GCM connected to a q-flux ocean. Cirrus clouds at a height of 12-15km, with an optical thickness of 0.33, were input to the model "x" percentage of clear-sky occasions along subsonic aircraft flight paths, where x is varied from .05% to 6%. Two types of experiments were performed: one with the percentage cirrus cloud increase independent of flight density, as long as a certain minimum density was exceeded; the other with the percentage related to the density of fuel expenditure. The overall climate impact was similar with the two approaches, due to the feedbacks of the climate system. Fifty years were run for eight such experiments, with the following conclusions based on the stable results from years 30-50 for each. The experiments show that adding cirrus to the upper troposphere results in a stabilization of the atmosphere, which leads to some decrease in cloud cover at levels below the insertion altitude. Considering then the total effect on upper level cloud cover (above 5 km altitude), the equilibrium global mean temperature response shows that altering high level clouds by 1% changes the global mean temperature by 0.43C. The response is highly linear (linear correlation coefficient of 0.996) for high cloud cover changes between 0. 1% and 5%. The effect is amplified in the Northern Hemisphere, more so with greater cloud cover change. The temperature effect maximizes around 10 km (at greater than 40C warming with a 4.8% increase in upper level clouds), again more so with greater warming. The high cloud cover change shows the flight path influence most clearly with the smallest warming magnitudes; with greater warming, the model feedbacks introduce a strong tropical response. Similarly, the surface temperature response is dominated by the feedbacks, and shows little geographical relationship to the high cloud input. Considering whether these effects would be observable, changing upper level cloud cover by as little as 0.4% produces warming greater than 2 standard deviations in the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channels 4, 2 and 2r, in flight path regions and in the subtropics. Despite the simplified nature of these experiments, the results emphasize the sensitivity of the modeled climate to high level cloud cover changes, and thus the potential ability of aircraft to influence climate by altering clouds in the upper troposphere.

Charge exchange cooling in the tandem mirror plasma confinement apparatus

DOEpatents

Logan, B. Grant

1978-01-01

Method and apparatus for cooling a plasma of warm charged species confined in the center mirror cell of the tandem mirror apparatus by injecting cold neutral species of the plasma into at least one mirroring region of the center mirror cell, the cooling due to the loss of warm charged species through charge exchange with the cold neutral species with resulting diffusion of the warm neutral species out of the plasma.

Subsurface flow pathway dynamics in the active layer of coupled permafrost-hydrogeological systems under seasonal and annual temperature variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frampton, Andrew

2017-04-01

There is a need for improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling subsurface solute transport in the active layer in order to better understand permafrost-hydrological-carbon feedbacks, in particular with regards to how dissolved carbon is transported in coupled surface and subsurface terrestrial arctic water systems under climate change. Studying solute transport in arctic systems is also relevant in the context of anthropogenic pollution which may increase due to increased activity in cold region environments. In this contribution subsurface solute transport subject to ground surface warming causing permafrost thaw and active layer change is studied using a physically based model of coupled cryotic and hydrogeological flow processes combined with a particle tracking method. Changes in subsurface water flows and solute transport travel times are analysed for different modelled geological configurations during a 100-year warming period. Results show that for all simulated cases, the minimum and mean travel times increase non-linearly with warming irrespective of geological configuration and heterogeneity structure. The timing of the start of increase in travel time depends on heterogeneity structure, combined with the rate of permafrost degradation that also depends on material thermal and hydrogeological properties. These travel time changes are shown to depend on combined warming effects of increase in pathway length due to deepening of the active layer, reduced transport velocities due to a shift from horizontal saturated groundwater flow near the surface to vertical water percolation deeper into the subsurface, and pathway length increase and temporary immobilization caused by cryosuction-induced seasonal freeze cycles. The impact these change mechanisms have on solute and dissolved substance transport is further analysed by integrating pathway analysis with a Lagrangian approach, incorporating considerations for both dissolved organic and inorganic carbon releases. Further model development challenges are also highlighted and discussed, including coupling between subsurface and surface runoff, soil deformations, as well as site applications and larger system scales.

Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23468879

Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

PubMed

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

HS 1603+3820 and its Warm Absorber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikołajuk, M.; Różańska, A.; Czerny, B.; Dobrzycki, A.

2009-07-01

We use photoionization codes CLOUDY and TITAN to obtain physical conditions in the absorbing medium close to the nucleus of a distant quasar (z = 2.54) HS 1603+3820. We found that the total column density of this Warm Absorber is 2 x 1022 cm-2. Due to the softness of the quasars spectrum the modelling allowed us also to determine uniquely the volume hydrogen density of this warm gas (n = 1010 cm-3) which combined with the other quasar parameters leads to a distance determination to the Warm Absorber from the central source which is ~ 1.5 x 1016 cm.

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols.

PubMed

Jacobson, M Z

2001-02-08

Aerosols affect the Earth's temperature and climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere. A large positive component of this radiative forcing from aerosols is due to black carbon--soot--that is released from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass, and, to a lesser extent, natural fires, but the exact forcing is affected by how black carbon is mixed with other aerosol constituents. From studies of aerosol radiative forcing, it is known that black carbon can exist in one of several possible mixing states; distinct from other aerosol particles (externally mixed) or incorporated within them (internally mixed), or a black-carbon core could be surrounded by a well mixed shell. But so far it has been assumed that aerosols exist predominantly as an external mixture. Here I simulate the evolution of the chemical composition of aerosols, finding that the mixing state and direct forcing of the black-carbon component approach those of an internal mixture, largely due to coagulation and growth of aerosol particles. This finding implies a higher positive forcing from black carbon than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect from black carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The magnitude of the direct radiative forcing from black carbon itself exceeds that due to CH4, suggesting that black carbon may be the second most important component of global warming after CO2 in terms of direct forcing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None, None

This 3-year project has studied how aerosol pollution influences glaciated clouds. The tool applied has been an 'aerosol-cloud model'. It is a type of Cloud-System Resolving Model (CSRM) modified to include 2-moment bulk microphysics and 7 aerosol species, as described by Phillips et al. (2009, 2013). The study has been done by, first, improving the model and then performing sensitivity studies with validated simulations of a couple of observed cases from ARM. These are namely the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) over the tropical west Pacific and the Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) over Oklahoma. Duringmore » the project, sensitivity tests with the model showed that in continental clouds, extra liquid aerosols (soluble aerosol material) from pollution inhibited warm rain processes for precipitation production. This promoted homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and aerosols. Mass and number concentrations of cloud-ice particles were boosted. The mean sizes of cloud-ice particles were reduced by the pollution. Hence, the lifetime of glaciated clouds, especially ice-only clouds, was augmented due to inhibition of sedimentation and ice-ice aggregation. Latent heat released from extra homogeneous freezing invigorated convective updrafts, and raised their maximum cloud-tops, when aerosol pollution was included. In the particular cases simulated in the project, the aerosol indirect effect of glaciated clouds was twice than of (warm) water clouds. This was because glaciated clouds are higher in the troposphere than water clouds and have the first interaction with incoming solar radiation. Ice-only clouds caused solar cooling by becoming more extensive as a result of aerosol pollution. This 'lifetime indirect effect' of ice-only clouds was due to higher numbers of homogeneously nucleated ice crystals causing a reduction in their mean size, slowing the ice-crystal process of snow production and slowing sedimentation. In addition to the known indirect effects (glaciation, riming and thermodynamic), new indirect effects were discovered and quantified due to responses of sedimentation, aggregation and coalescence in glaciated clouds to changing aerosol conditions. In summary, the change in horizontal extent of the glaciated clouds ('lifetime indirect effects'), especially of ice-only clouds, was seen to be of higher importance in regulating aerosol indirect effects than changes in cloud properties ('cloud albedo indirect effects').« less

Impacts of reactive nitrogen on climate change in China

PubMed Central

Shi, Yalan; Cui, Shenghui; Ju, Xiaotang; Cai, Zucong; Zhu, Yong-Guan

2015-01-01

China is mobilizing the largest anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the world due to agricultural, industrial and urban development. However, the climate effects related to Nr in China remain largely unclear. Here we comprehensively estimate that the net climate effects of Nr are −100 ± 414 and 322 ± 163 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 and a GTP100 basis, respectively. Agriculture contributes to warming at 187 ± 108 and 186 ± 56 Tg CO2e on a 20-y and 100-y basis, respectively, dominated by long-lived nitrous oxide (N2O) from fertilized soils. On a 20-y basis, industry contributes to cooling at −287 ± 306 Tg CO2e, largely owing to emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) altering tropospheric ozone, methane and aerosol concentrations. However, these effects are short-lived. The effect of industry converts to warming at 136 ± 107 Tg CO2e on a 100-y basis, mainly as a result of the reduced carbon (C) sink from the NOx-induced ozone effect on plant damage. On balance, the warming effects of gaseous Nr are partly offset by the cooling effects of N-induced carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems. The large mitigation potentials through reductions in agricultural N2O and industrial NOx will accompany by a certain mitigation pressure from limited N-induced C sequestration in the future. PMID:25631557

Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

2018-03-01

The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982-2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May-June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to negative horizontal advection anomalies resulting from processes similar to those that occur during cold ACT events. This additional cooling process extends the period of cooling of the ACT, reducing SST anomalies.

Effects of ocean acidification, warming and melting of sea ice on aragonite saturation of the Canada Basin surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto-Kawai, M.; McLaughlin, F. A.; Carmack, E. C.

2011-02-01

In 2008, surface waters in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean were found to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite. This is associated with recent extensive melting of sea ice in this region, as well as elevated sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We have estimated the relative contribution of each of these controlling factors to the calcium carbonate saturation state (Ω) from observations of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity and oxygen isotope ratio. Results indicate that the increase in atmospheric CO2 has lowered surface Ω by ˜0.3 in the Canada Basin since the preindustrial period. Recent melting of sea ice has further lowered mean Ω by 0.4, and of this, half was due to dilution of surface water and half was due to the change in air-sea disequilibrium state. Surface water warming has generally counteracted the mean decrease in Ω by 0.1.

Experimental room temperature hohlraum performance study on the National Ignition Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ralph, J. E.; Strozzi, D.; Ma, T.; Moody, J. D.; Hinkel, D. E.; Callahan, D. A.; MacGowan, B. J.; Michel, P.; Kline, J. L.; Glenzer, S. H.; Albert, F.; Benedetti, L. R.; Divol, L.; MacKinnon, A. J.; Pak, A.; Rygg, J. R.; Schneider, M. B.; Town, R. P. J.; Widmann, K.; Hsing, W.; Edwards, M. J.

2016-12-01

Room temperature or "warm" (273 K) indirect drive hohlraum experiments have been conducted on the National Ignition Facility with laser energies up to 1.26 MJ and compared to similar cryogenic or "cryo" (˜20 K) experiments. Warm experiments use neopentane (C5H12) as the low pressure hohlraum fill gas instead of helium, and propane (C3H8) to replace the cryogenic DT or DHe3 capsule fill. The increased average Z of the hohlraum fill leads to increased inverse bremsstrahlung absorption and an overall hotter hohlraum plasma in simulations. The cross beam energy transfer (CBET) from outer laser beams (pointed toward the laser entrance hole) to inner beams (pointed at the equator) was inferred indirectly from measurements of Stimulated Raman Scattering (SRS). These experiments show that a similar hot spot self-emission shape can be produced with less CBET in warm hohlraums. The measured inner cone SRS reflectivity (as a fraction of incident power neglecting CBET) is ˜2.5 × less in warm than cryo shots with similar hot spot shapes, due to a less need for CBET. The measured outer-beam stimulated the Brillouin scattering power that was higher in the warm shots, leading to a ceiling on power to avoid the optics damage. These measurements also show that the CBET induced by the flow where the beams cross can be effectively mitigated by a 1.5 Å wavelength shift between the inner and outer beams. A smaller scale direct comparison indicates that warm shots give a more prolate implosion than cryo shots with the same wavelength shift and pulse shape. Finally, the peak radiation temperature was found to be between 5 and 7 eV higher in the warm than the corresponding cryo experiments after accounting for differences in backscatter.

Nematode community shifts in response to experimental warming and canopy conditions are associated with plant community changes in the temperate-boreal forest ecotone.

PubMed

Thakur, Madhav Prakash; Reich, Peter B; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Stefanski, Artur; Cesarz, Simone; Dobies, Tomasz; Rich, Roy L; Hobbie, Sarah E; Eisenhauer, Nico

2014-06-01

Global climate warming is one of the key forces driving plant community shifts, such as range shifts of temperate species into boreal forests. As plant community shifts are slow to observe, ecotones, boundaries between two ecosystems, are target areas for providing early evidence of ecological responses to warming. The role of soil fauna is poorly explored in ecotones, although their positive and negative effects on plant species can influence plant community structure. We studied nematode communities in response to experimental warming (ambient, +1.7, +3.4 °C) in soils of closed and open canopy forest in the temperate-boreal ecotone of Minnesota, USA and calculated various established nematode indices. We estimated species-specific coverage of understory herbaceous and shrub plant species from the same experimental plots and tested if changes in the nematode community are associated with plant cover and composition. Individual nematode trophic groups did not differ among warming treatments, but the ratio between microbial-feeding and plant-feeding nematodes increased significantly and consistently with warming in both closed and open canopy areas and at both experimental field sites. The increase in this ratio was positively correlated with total cover of understory plant species, perhaps due to increased predation pressure on soil microorganisms causing higher nutrient availability for plants. Multivariate analyses revealed that temperature treatment, canopy conditions and nematode density consistently shaped understory plant communities across experimental sites. Our findings suggest that warming-induced changes in nematode community structure are associated with shifts in plant community composition and productivity in the temperate-boreal forest ecotones.

Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming.

PubMed

Reich, Peter B; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Wei, Xiaorong; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A

2016-03-31

Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.

Warming and neighbor removal affect white spruce seedling growth differently above and below treeline.

PubMed

Okano, Kyoko; Bret-Harte, M Syndonia

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to be pronounced towards higher latitudes and altitudes. Warming triggers treeline and vegetation shifts, which may aggravate interspecific competition and affect biodiversity. This research tested the effects of a warming climate, habitat type, and neighboring plant competition on the establishment and growth of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) seedlings in a subarctic mountain region. P. glauca seedlings were planted in June 2010 under 4 different treatments (high/control temperatures, with/without competition) in 3 habitats (alpine ridge above treeline/tundra near treeline /forest below treeline habitats). After two growing seasons in 2011, growth, photosynthesis and foliar C and N data were obtained from a total of 156, one-and-a-half year old seedlings that had survived. Elevated temperatures increased growth and photosynthetic rates above and near treeline, but decreased them below treeline. Competition was increased by elevated temperatures in all habitat types. Our results suggest that increasing temperatures will have positive effects on the growth of P. glauca seedlings at the locations where P. glauca is expected to expand its habitat, but increasing temperatures may have negative effects on seedlings growing in mature forests. Due to interspecific competition, possibly belowground competition, the upslope expansion of treelines may not be as fast in the future as it was the last fifty years.

Effects of warming and nutrients on the microbial food web in shallow lake mesocosms.

PubMed

Zingel, Priit; Cremona, Fabien; Nõges, Tiina; Cao, Yu; Neif, Érika M; Coppens, Jan; Işkın, Uğur; Lauridsen, Torben L; Davidson, Thomas A; Søndergaard, Martin; Beklioglu, Meryem; Jeppesen, Erik

2018-06-01

We analysed changes in the abundance, biomass and cell size of the microbial food web community (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates) at contrasting nutrient concentrations and temperatures during a simulated heat wave. We used 24 mesocosms mimicking shallow lakes in which two nutrient levels (unenriched and enriched by adding nitrogen and phosphorus) and three different temperature scenarios (ambient, IPCC A2 scenario and A2+%50) are simulated (4 replicates of each). Experiments using the mesocosms have been running un-interrupted since 2003. A 1-month heat wave was imitated by an extra 5 °C increase in the previously heated mesocosms (from 1st July to 1st August 2014). Changes in water temperature induced within a few days a strong effect on the microbial food web functioning, demonstrating a quick response of microbial communities to the changes in environment, due to their short generation times. Warming and nutrients showed synergistic effects. Microbial assemblages of heterotrophic nanoflagellates and ciliates responded positively to the heating, the increase being largest in the enriched mesocosms. The results indicate that warming and nutrients in combination can set off complex interactions in the microbial food web functioning. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering.

PubMed

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-04-18

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth's energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) - 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr -1 . In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering

PubMed Central

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C.; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-01-01

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth’s energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) – 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr−1. In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes. PMID:28418005

On the Regulation of the Pacific Warm Pool Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chou, Sue-Hsien; Chan, Pui-King; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In the tropical western Pacific, regions of the highest sea surface temperature (SST) and the largest cloud cover are found to have the largest surface heating, primarily due to the weak evaporative cooling associated with weak winds. This situation is in variance with the suggestions that the temperature in the Pacific warm pool is regulated either by the reduced solar heating due to an enhanced cloudiness or by the enhanced evaporative cooling due to an elevated SST. It is clear that an enhanced surface heating in an enhanced convection region is not sustainable and must be interrupted by variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. As the deep convective regions shift away from regions of high SST due primarily to seasonal variation and secondarily to interannual variation of the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, both trade wind and evaporative cooling in the high SST region increase, leading to a reduction in SST. We conclude that the evaporative cooling associated with the seasonal and interannual variations of trade winds in the primary factor that prevent the warm pool SST from increasing to a value much higher than what is observed.

The use of atomic force microscopy to evaluate warm mix asphalt : [executive summary report].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-01-01

Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) has received considerable attention in past few years due to its benefits in reducing energy consumption and pollutant emissions during production and placement of asphalt mixtures, as well as a compaction aid during the constr...

On the size dependence of the scattering greenhouse effect of CO2 ice particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitzmann, D.; Patzer, A. B. C.; Rauer, H.

2011-10-01

In this contribution we study the potential greenhouse effect due to scattering of CO2 ice clouds for atmospheric conditions of terrestrial extrasolar planets. Therefore, we calculate the scattering and absorption properties of CO2 ice particles using Mie theory for assumed particle size distributions with different effective radii and particle densities to determine the scattering and absorption characteristics of such clouds. Implications especially in view of a potential greenhouse warming of the planetary surface are discussed.

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change

PubMed Central

Petersen, Sierra V.; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2016-01-01

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change. PMID:27377632

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change.

PubMed

Petersen, Sierra V; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C

2016-07-05

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8±3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.

End-Cretaceous extinction in Antarctica linked to both Deccan volcanism and meteorite impact via climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Sierra V.; Dutton, Andrea; Lohmann, Kyger C.

2016-07-01

The cause of the end-Cretaceous (KPg) mass extinction is still debated due to difficulty separating the influences of two closely timed potential causal events: eruption of the Deccan Traps volcanic province and impact of the Chicxulub meteorite. Here we combine published extinction patterns with a new clumped isotope temperature record from a hiatus-free, expanded KPg boundary section from Seymour Island, Antarctica. We document a 7.8+/-3.3 °C warming synchronous with the onset of Deccan Traps volcanism and a second, smaller warming at the time of meteorite impact. Local warming may have been amplified due to simultaneous disappearance of continental or sea ice. Intra-shell variability indicates a possible reduction in seasonality after Deccan eruptions began, continuing through the meteorite event. Species extinction at Seymour Island occurred in two pulses that coincide with the two observed warming events, directly linking the end-Cretaceous extinction at this site to both volcanic and meteorite events via climate change.

Springback of aluminum alloy brazing sheet in warm forming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Kyu Bin; George, Ryan; Kurukuri, Srihari; Worswick, Michael J.; Winkler, Sooky

2017-10-01

The use of aluminum is increasing in the automotive industry due to its high strength-to-weight ratio, recyclability and corrosion resistance. However, aluminum is prone to significant springback due to its low elastic modulus coupled with its high strength. In this paper, a warm forming process is studied to improve the springback characteristics of 0.2 mm thick brazing sheet with an AA3003 core and AA4045 clad. Warm forming decreases springback by lowering the flow stress. The parts formed have complex features and geometries that are representative of automotive heat exchangers. The key objective is to utilize warm forming to control the springback to improve the part flatness which enables the use of harder temper material with improved strength. The experiments are performed by using heated dies at several different temperatures up to 350 °C and the blanks are pre-heated in the dies. The measured springback showed a reduction in curvature and improved flatness after forming at higher temperatures, particularly for the harder temper material conditions.

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-01

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia.

PubMed

Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

2015-01-23

The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change over the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Hamilton, K. P.; Lauer, A.

2015-12-01

The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method was applied to the Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) to dynamically downscale the projected climate in the late 21st century over the Hawaiian Islands. The initial and boundary conditions were adopted from MERRA reanalysis and NOAA SST data for the present-day simulations. The global warming increments constructed from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean were added to the reanalysis and SST data to perform the future climate simulations. We found that the Hawaiian Islands are vulnerable to global warming effects and the changes are diverse due to the varied topography. The windward side will have more clouds and receive more rainfall. The increase of the moisture in the boundary layer makes the major contribution. On the contrary, the leeward side will have less clouds and rainfall. The clouds and rain can slightly slow down the warming trend over the windward side. The temperature increases almost linearly with the terrain height. Cloud base and top heights will slightly decline in response to the slightly lower trade wind inversion base height, while the trade wind occurrence frequency will increase by about 8% in the future. More extreme rainfall events will occur in the warming climate over the Hawaiian Islands. And the snow cover on the top of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa will nearly disappear in the future winter.

Warming shifts ‘worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B.

2014-01-01

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration. PMID:25363633

Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

PubMed

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

2014-11-03

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

Sensitivity of Stratospheric Geoengineering with Black Carbon to Aerosol Size and Altitude of Injection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kravitz, Ben; Robock, Alan; Shindell, Drew T.; Miller, Mark A.

2012-01-01

Simulations of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon (BC) aerosols using a general circulation model with fixed sea surface temperatures show that the climate effects strongly depend on aerosol size and altitude of injection. 1 Tg BC/a injected into the lower stratosphere would cause little surface cooling for large radii but a large amount of surface cooling for small radii and stratospheric warming of over 60 C. With the exception of small particles, increasing the altitude of injection increases surface cooling and stratospheric warming. Stratospheric warming causes global ozone loss by up to 50% in the small radius case. The Antarctic shows less ozone loss due to reduction of polar stratospheric clouds, but strong circumpolar winds would enhance the Arctic ozone hole. Using diesel fuel to produce the aerosols is likely prohibitively expensive and infeasible. Although studying an absorbing aerosol is a useful counterpart to previous studies involving sulfate aerosols, black carbon geoengineering likely carries too many risks to make it a viable option for deployment.

Uncertainty in Arctic climate projections traced to variability of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, WIlco; van Heerwaarden, Chiel

2017-04-01

The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.

Counterintuitive effects of global warming-induced wind patterns on primary production in the Northern Humboldt Current System.

PubMed

Mogollón, Rodrigo; R Calil, Paulo H

2018-07-01

It has been hypothesized that global warming will strengthen upwelling-favorable winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) as a consequence of the increase of the land-sea thermal gradient along the Peruvian coast. The effect of strengthened winds in this region is assessed with the use of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with projected and climatological winds. Strengthened winds induce an increase in primary production of 2% per latitudinal degree from 9.5°S to 5°S. In some important coastal upwelling sites primary production is reduced. This is due to a complex balance between nutrient availability, nutrient use efficiency, as well as eddy- and wind-driven factors. Mesoscale activity induces a net offshore transport of inorganic nutrients, thus reducing primary production in the coastal upwelling region. Wind mixing, in general disadvantageous for primary producers, leads to shorter residence times in the southern and central coastal zones. Overall, instead of a proportional enhancement in primary production due to increased winds, the NHCS becomes only 5% more productive (+5 mol C m -2 year -1 ), 10% less limited by nutrients and 15% less efficient due to eddy-driven effects. It is found that regions with a initial strong nutrient limitation are more efficient in terms of nutrient assimilation which makes them more resilient in face of the acceleration of the upwelling circulation. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Flow, stock, and impact assessment of refrigerants in the Japanese household air conditioner sector.

PubMed

Xue, Mianqiang; Kojima, Naoya; Machimura, Takashi; Tokai, Akihiro

2017-05-15

Refrigerants provide society with great benefits while have the potential to cause adverse effects on the environment and human health. The present study estimated time-dependent flows and stocks and assessed the effects of refrigerants (R-22, R-410a, and R-32) in household air conditioners in Japan. It was found that stock of R-22 and R-410a peaked at 49,147t in 2000 and 55,994t in 2017, respectively. The largest flow of R-22 and R-410a to waste phase occurred at 3417t/yr. in 2005 and 4011t/yr. in 2023, respectively. The total global warming potential (GWP) due to refrigerant emissions increased from 3.6kt CO 2 eq. in 1952 to 6999kt CO 2 eq. in 2019, and then decreased to 5314kt CO 2 eq. in 2030. The ozone depletion potential (ODP) peaked at 141t CFC-11 eq. in 2002. When substituting R-410a for R-22, the ODP decreased 50% while the GDP increased 8%. When substituting R-32 for R-410a, there was no effect on the ODP while the GDP decreased 6%. The human health damage due to the global warming effect of refrigerant emission was much higher than that due to the ozone depleting effect. The refrigerant emission in use and waste management phases dominated the human health damage. The dynamic estimation not only allows us to evaluate the performance of past policies but also supports the future sustainable management associated with the health effects of refrigerants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in lowering atmospheric CO2 and reversing global warming in the context of 1.5 degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Azevedo, D.

2017-12-01

The majority of emissions scenarios that limit warming to 2°C, and nearly all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5°C warming by the year 2100 require artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in these scenarios are required to offset emissions from sectors that are difficult or costly to decarbonize and to generate global `net negative' emissions, allowing to compensate for earlier emissions and to meet long-term climate stabilization targets after overshoot. Only a few studies have explored the Earth system response to CDR and large uncertainties exist regarding the effect of CDR on the carbon cycle and its effectiveness in reversing climate impacts after overshoot. Here we explore the effectiveness of CDR in lowering atmospheric CO2 ("carbon cycle effectiveness") and cool global climate ("cooling effectiveness"). We force the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a model of intermediate complexity, with a set of negative CO2 emissions pulses of different magnitude and applied from different background atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find the carbon cycle effectiveness of CDR - defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit CO2 removed - decreases with the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and increases at higher background CO2 concentrations from which CDR is applied due to nonlinear responses of carbon sinks to CO2 and climate. The cooling effectiveness - defined as the change in global mean surface air temperature per unit CO2 removed - on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the amount of CO2 removed, but decreases if CDR is applied at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations, due to the logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing. Based on our results we conclude that CDR is more effective in restoring a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and reversing impacts directly linked to CO2 at lower levels of overshoot. CDR's effectiveness in restoring a cooler climate, on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the level of overshoot.

Bud break responds more strongly to daytime than night-time temperature under asymmetric experimental warming.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Isabel, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Global warming is diurnally asymmetric, leading to a less cold, rather than warmer, climate. We investigated the effects of asymmetric experimental warming on plant phenology by testing the hypothesis that daytime warming is more effective in advancing bud break than night-time warming. Bud break was monitored daily in Picea mariana seedlings belonging to 20 provenances from Eastern Canada and subjected to daytime and night-time warming in growth chambers at temperatures varying between 8 and 16 °C. The higher advancements of bud break and shorter times required to complete the phenological phases occurred with daytime warming. Seedlings responded to night-time warming, but still with less advancement of bud break than under daytime warming. No advancement was observed when night-time warming was associated with a daytime cooling. The effect of the treatments was uniform across provenances. Our observations realized under controlled conditions allowed to experimentally demonstrate that bud break can advance under night-time warming, but to a lesser extent than under daytime warming. Prediction models using daily timescales could neglect the diverging influence of asymmetric warming and should be recalibrated for higher temporal resolutions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir Bin

2015-01-01

Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that child-centred, 5E learning cycle-based climate change activities would have over more traditional teacher-centred activities on Malaysian Year 5 primary students (11 years). A quasi-experimental design involving a treatment (n = 55) and a group representing typical teaching method (n = 60) was used to measure the effectiveness of these activities on (a) increasing children's knowledge about global warming; (b) changing their attitudes to be more favourable towards the environment and (c) identify the relationship between knowledge and attitude that exist in this study. Statistically significant differences in favour of the treatment group were detected for both knowledge and environmental attitudes. Non-significant relationship was identified between knowledge and attitude in this study. Interviews with randomly selected students from treatment and comparison groups further underscore these findings. Implications are discussed.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Effects of ocean warming and acidification on fertilization in the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri across a range of sperm concentrations.

PubMed

Ho, M A; Price, C; King, C K; Virtue, P; Byrne, M

2013-09-01

The gametes of marine invertebrates are being spawned into an ocean that is simultaneously warming and decreasing in pH. Predicting the potential for interactive effects of these stressors on fertilization is difficult, especially for stenothermal polar invertebrates adapted to fertilization in cold, viscous water and, when decreased sperm availability may be an additional stressor. The impact of increased temperature (2-4 °C above ambient) and decreased pH (0.2-0.4 pH units below ambient) on fertilization in the Antarctic echinoid Sterechinus neumayeri across a range of sperm concentrations was investigated in cross-factorial experiments in context with near future ocean change projections. The high temperature treatment (+4 °C) was also used to assess thermal tolerance. Gametes from multiple males and females in replicate experiments were used to reflect the multiple spawner scenario in nature. For fertilization at low sperm density we tested three hypotheses, 1) increased temperature enhances fertilization success, 2) low pH reduces fertilization and, 3) due to the cold stenothermal physiology of S. neumayeri, temperature would be the more significant stressor. Temperature and sperm levels had a significant effect on fertilization, but decreased pH did not affect fertilization. Warming enhanced fertilization at the lowest sperm concentration tested likely through stimulation of sperm motility and reduced water viscosity. Our results indicate that fertilization in S. neumayeri, even at low sperm levels potentially found in nature, is resilient to near-future ocean warming and acidification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Responses of plant community composition and biomass production to warming and nitrogen deposition in a temperate meadow ecosystem.

PubMed

Zhang, Tao; Guo, Rui; Gao, Song; Guo, Jixun; Sun, Wei

2015-01-01

Climate change has profound influences on plant community composition and ecosystem functions. However, its effects on plant community composition and biomass production are not well understood. A four-year field experiment was conducted to examine the effects of warming, nitrogen (N) addition, and their interactions on plant community composition and biomass production in a temperate meadow ecosystem in northeast China. Experimental warming had no significant effect on plant species richness, evenness, and diversity, while N addition highly reduced the species richness and diversity. Warming tended to reduce the importance value of graminoid species but increased the value of forbs, while N addition had the opposite effect. Warming tended to increase the belowground biomass, but had an opposite tendency to decrease the aboveground biomass. The influences of warming on aboveground production were dependent upon precipitation. Experimental warming had little effect on aboveground biomass in the years with higher precipitation, but significantly suppressed aboveground biomass in dry years. Our results suggest that warming had indirect effects on plant production via its effect on the water availability. Nitrogen addition significantly increased above- and below-ground production, suggesting that N is one of the most important limiting factors determining plant productivity in the studied meadow steppe. Significant interactive effects of warming plus N addition on belowground biomass were also detected. Our observations revealed that environmental changes (warming and N deposition) play significant roles in regulating plant community composition and biomass production in temperate meadow steppe ecosystem in northeast China.

Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations.

PubMed

Jeppesen, Erik; Kronvang, Brian; Meerhoff, Mariana; Søndergaard, Martin; Hansen, Kristina M; Andersen, Hans E; Lauridsen, Torben L; Liboriussen, Lone; Beklioglu, Meryem; Ozen, Arda; Olesen, Jørgen E

2009-01-01

Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.

Changes in fungal community composition in response to experimental soil warming at the alpine treeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solly, Emily; Lindahl, Bjorn; Dawes, Melissa; Peter, Martina; Souza, Romulo; Rixen, Christian; Hagedorn, Frank

2017-04-01

Increased CO2 emissions and global warming may alter the composition of fungal communities through the reduction of low temperature limitation in the plant-soil system, faster nitrogen cycling and changes in the carbon allocation of host plants to the rhizosphere. Shifts in fungal community composition due to global changes are likely to affect the routes of carbon and nitrogen flows in the plant-soil system and alter the rates at which organic matter is decomposed. The main aim of our study was to estimate the effects of multiple years of free air CO2 enrichment (ambient concentration +200 ppm) and soil warming (+ 4°C) on the fungal community structure and composition. At an alpine treeline in Switzerland featuring two key high-elevation tree species, Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata, fungal communities within different organic horizons were analysed by high-throughput 454-pyrosequencing of ITS2 amplicons. In addition, we assessed the ectomycorrhizal community composition on root tips and monitored changes in sporocarp productivity of fungal species during the course of the experiment. Three years of experimental warming at the alpine treeline altered the composition of the fungal community in the organic horizons, whereas nine years of CO2 enrichment had only weak effects. Tree species influenced the composition of the fungal community and the magnitude of the responses of fungal functional groups to soil warming differed between plots with Larix and those with Pinus. The abundance of ectomycorrhizal fungi was positively correlated with nitrogen availability, and ectomycorrhizal taxa specialized for conditions of high nitrogen availability proliferated with warming, corresponding to considerable increases in extractable inorganic nitrogen in warmed soils. Changes in productivity of specific fungal fruiting bodies in response to soil warming (e.g. more Lactarius rufus sporocarps and less Hygrophorus speciousus sporocarps) were consistent with the 454-sequencing data and the colonization of ectomycorrhizal root tips. Several fungal taxa known to be involved in needle degradation responded positively to the warming treatment by increasing in their relative abundance. These findings provide novel insights into the spatial distribution of functional groups of fungi both vertically in the soil and between different rhizospheres of trees. Moreover, they indicate that traits related to nitrogen utilization are important in determining responses of ectomycorrhizal fungi to warming in cold regions, such as high-elevation ecosystems, with low N availability. Shifts in the overall fungal community composition in response to higher temperatures may alter fungal-driven processes with potential feedbacks on ecosystem nitrogen cycling and carbon storage at the alpine treeline.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-09

using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of

Insect damage influences heat and water stress resistance gene expression in field grown popcorn: Implications in developing varieties adapted to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Warming climatic conditions can pose potential problems for crop production, but detailed effects at the molecular level on potentially affected crop plants are lacking. Popcorn is a valuable snack food worldwide, and is difficult to improve by breeding due to multigenic influences on popping. It ha...

The effect of nutrient deposition on bacterial communities in Arctic tundra soil

Treesearch

Barbara J. Campbell; Shawn W. Polson; Thomas E. Hanson; Michelle C. Mack; Edward A.G. Schuur

2010-01-01

The microbial communities of high-latitude ecosystems are expected to experience rapid changes over the next century due to climate warming and increased deposition of reactive nitrogen, changes that will likely affect microbial community structure and function. In moist acidic tundra (MAT) soils on the North Slope of the Brooks Range, Alaska, substantial losses of C...

CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

PubMed

Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

2016-09-01

Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

PubMed

Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

2012-05-15

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen

PubMed Central

Pinder, Robert W.; Davidson, Eric A.; Goodale, Christine L.; Greaver, Tara L.; Herrick, Jeffrey D.; Liu, Lingli

2012-01-01

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N2O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at −290 to −510 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP100 basis, combustion contributes just −16 to −95 Tg CO2e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N2O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N2O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO2 emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change. PMID:22547815

Predominant role of water in regulating the tree-growth response to diurnal asymmetric warmin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Xia, J.; Cui, E.

2017-12-01

Growth of the Northern Hemisphere trees is affected by diurnal asymmetric warming, which is generally considered to touch off carbon assimilation and increment of carbon storage. Asymmetric effects of diurnal warming on vegetation greenness were validated in previous researches, however, the effect of diurnal warming on wood tissue which stores most carbon of a whole plant is still unknown. Here, we combined ring-width index (RWI), remote sensing-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate datasets to detect the effects of daytime and night-time warming on vegetation growth, respectively. Our results indicate that daytime warming enhances NDVI but has neutral effect on tree woody growth over the Northern Hemisphere. Response of wood growth to daytime warming is linearly regulated by soil water availability. The underlying mechanism of different response of canopy and wood growth to daytime warming may attribute to the biomass change, that is, allocation to foliage tissues increased at the expense of wood tissue under warming and water-limited conditions. Night-time warming show neutral effects on NDVI and RWI over the Northern Hemisphere, and the neutral Tmin-NDVI correlations result from the non-linear mediation of soil water availability. Our results highlight the current greening trend under daytime warming does not mean higher carbon sink capacity, the warming-drying climate may impair the large carbon sink of global forests.

Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: effects on soil enzymes.

PubMed

Steinweg, J Megan; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Paul, Eldor A; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2013-01-01

The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment (BACE), which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland), were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round) and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4°C above ambient) over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.

Synergistic effects of the invasive Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) and climate change on aquatic amphibian survival

PubMed Central

Saenz, Daniel; Fucik, Erin M; Kwiatkowski, Matthew A

2013-01-01

Changes in climate and the introduction of invasive species are two major stressors to amphibians, although little is known about the interaction between these two factors with regard to impacts on amphibians. We focused our study on an invasive tree species, the Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera), that annually sheds its leaves and produces leaf litter that is known to negatively impact aquatic amphibian survival. The purpose of our research was to determine whether the timing of leaf fall from Chinese tallow and the timing of amphibian breeding (determined by weather) influence survival of amphibian larvae. We simulated a range of winter weather scenarios, ranging from cold to warm, by altering the relative timing of when leaf litter and amphibian larvae were introduced into aquatic mesocosms. Our results indicate that amphibian larvae survival was greatly affected by the length of time Chinese tallow leaf litter decomposes in water prior to the introduction of the larvae. Larvae in treatments simulating warm winters (early amphibian breeding) were introduced to the mesocosms early in the aquatic decomposition process of the leaf litter and had significantly lower survival compared with cold winters (late amphibian breeding), likely due to significantly lower dissolved oxygen levels. Shifts to earlier breeding phenology, linked to warming climate, have already been observed in many amphibian taxa, and with most climate models predicting a significant warming trend over the next century, the trend toward earlier breeding should continue if not increase. Our results strongly suggest that a warming climate can interact with the effects of invasive plant species, in ways we have not previously considered, to reduce the survival of an already declining group of organisms. PMID:24363907

Synergistic effects of the invasive Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) and climate change on aquatic amphibian survival.

PubMed

Saenz, Daniel; Fucik, Erin M; Kwiatkowski, Matthew A

2013-11-01

Changes in climate and the introduction of invasive species are two major stressors to amphibians, although little is known about the interaction between these two factors with regard to impacts on amphibians. We focused our study on an invasive tree species, the Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera), that annually sheds its leaves and produces leaf litter that is known to negatively impact aquatic amphibian survival. The purpose of our research was to determine whether the timing of leaf fall from Chinese tallow and the timing of amphibian breeding (determined by weather) influence survival of amphibian larvae. We simulated a range of winter weather scenarios, ranging from cold to warm, by altering the relative timing of when leaf litter and amphibian larvae were introduced into aquatic mesocosms. Our results indicate that amphibian larvae survival was greatly affected by the length of time Chinese tallow leaf litter decomposes in water prior to the introduction of the larvae. Larvae in treatments simulating warm winters (early amphibian breeding) were introduced to the mesocosms early in the aquatic decomposition process of the leaf litter and had significantly lower survival compared with cold winters (late amphibian breeding), likely due to significantly lower dissolved oxygen levels. Shifts to earlier breeding phenology, linked to warming climate, have already been observed in many amphibian taxa, and with most climate models predicting a significant warming trend over the next century, the trend toward earlier breeding should continue if not increase. Our results strongly suggest that a warming climate can interact with the effects of invasive plant species, in ways we have not previously considered, to reduce the survival of an already declining group of organisms.

Observations and modeling of EMIC wave properties in the presence of multiple ion species as function of magnetic local time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Justin H.; Angelopoulos, Vassilis

2014-11-01

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave generation and propagation in Earth's magnetosphere depend on readily measurable hot (a few to tens of keV) plasma sheet ions, elusive plasmaspheric or ionospheric cold (sub-eV to a few eV) ions, and partially heated warm ions (tens to hundreds of eV). Previous work has assumed all low-energy ions are cold and not considered possible effects of warm ions. Using measurements by multiple Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms spacecraft, we analyze four typical EMIC wave events in the four magnetic local time sectors and consider the properties of both cold and warm ions supplied from previous statistical studies to interpret the wave observations using linear theory. As expected, we find that dusk EMIC waves grow due to the presence of drifting hot anisotropic protons and cold plasmaspheric ions with a dominant cold proton component. Near midnight, EMIC waves are less common because warm heavy ions that suppress wave growth are more abundant there. The waves can grow when cold, plume-like density enhancements are present, however. Dawn EMIC waves, known for their peculiar properties, are generated away from the equator and change polarization during propagation through the warm plasma cloak. Noon EMIC waves can also be generated nonlocally and their properties modified during propagation by a plasmaspheric plume combined with low-energy ions from solar and terrestrial sources. Accounting for multiple ion species, measured wave dispersion, and propagation characteristics can explain previously elusive EMIC wave properties and are therefore important for future studies of EMIC wave effects on energetic particle depletion.

Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

PubMed

Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

2015-01-01

Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing temperature helps providing more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of Passive, Active and Combined Warm up on Lower Limb Muscle Performance and Dynamic Stability in Recreational Sports Players.

PubMed

Gogte, Kedar; Srivastav, Prateek; Miyaru, Ganesh Balthillaya

2017-03-01

Warm up is an activity that is done before a sports activity. The warm up can be done actively and passively. The preferred mode is active warm up in athletes. There are inconclusive effects of passive warm up compared with an active warm up on short term muscle performance. The cumulative effect of passive and active warm up on muscle performance and dynamic stability is not known. To find out the effects of passive, active and combined warm up on lower limb muscle performance and dynamic stability in recreational sports players. A randomized crossover study was done on 19 recreational lower limb dominant sports players. Three different warm ups were included in the study passive, active and combined. Active warm up included series of activities like cycling, leg press, jump squats, squat jumps while passive warm up included application of moist heat for a period of 20 minutes on lower limb muscles. Combined warm up included both passive and active warm up. Six different sequences were made from these three warm ups. Subjects were screened and allotted into different groups based on the six warm up sequences after sequence randomization with 48 hours wash out period. After every warm up session Vertical Jump Test (VJT) and Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) was performed and results were recorded. Study duration was one year and six months. There was no difference noticed in both the outcome measures. Mean and SD values for passive, active and combined warm up are 47.62±9.64, 48.50±10.16 and 48.87±10.70 respectively in Vertical Jump Test (VJT) and 85.43±8.61, 85.17±8.60 and 85.17±8.38 respectively for SEBT. The p-value for mean difference between passive-active, active-combined, combined-passive are 0.67, 1.00, 0.51 respectively, for VJT and 1.00, 1.00, 1.00 respectively for SEBT. All warm ups are equally effective in short term sports performance.

Effect of Passive, Active and Combined Warm up on Lower Limb Muscle Performance and Dynamic Stability in Recreational Sports Players

PubMed Central

Gogte, Kedar; Miyaru, Ganesh Balthillaya

2017-01-01

Introduction Warm up is an activity that is done before a sports activity. The warm up can be done actively and passively. The preferred mode is active warm up in athletes. There are inconclusive effects of passive warm up compared with an active warm up on short term muscle performance. The cumulative effect of passive and active warm up on muscle performance and dynamic stability is not known. Aim To find out the effects of passive, active and combined warm up on lower limb muscle performance and dynamic stability in recreational sports players. Materials and Methods A randomized crossover study was done on 19 recreational lower limb dominant sports players. Three different warm ups were included in the study passive, active and combined. Active warm up included series of activities like cycling, leg press, jump squats, squat jumps while passive warm up included application of moist heat for a period of 20 minutes on lower limb muscles. Combined warm up included both passive and active warm up. Six different sequences were made from these three warm ups. Subjects were screened and allotted into different groups based on the six warm up sequences after sequence randomization with 48 hours wash out period. After every warm up session Vertical Jump Test (VJT) and Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) was performed and results were recorded. Study duration was one year and six months. Results There was no difference noticed in both the outcome measures. Mean and SD values for passive, active and combined warm up are 47.62±9.64, 48.50±10.16 and 48.87±10.70 respectively in Vertical Jump Test (VJT) and 85.43±8.61, 85.17±8.60 and 85.17±8.38 respectively for SEBT. The p-value for mean difference between passive-active, active-combined, combined-passive are 0.67, 1.00, 0.51 respectively, for VJT and 1.00, 1.00, 1.00 respectively for SEBT. Conclusion All warm ups are equally effective in short term sports performance. PMID:28511496

Lack of photosynthetic or stomatal regulation after 9 years of elevated [CO2] and 4 years of soil warming in two conifer species at the alpine treeline.

PubMed

Streit, Kathrin; Siegwolf, Rolf T W; Hagedorn, Frank; Schaub, Marcus; Buchmann, Nina

2014-02-01

Alpine treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries. Understanding the effects of elevated [CO2 ] and warming on CO2 and H2 O gas exchange may help predict responses of treelines to global change. We measured needle gas exchange of Larix decidua Mill. and Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata DC trees after 9 years of free air CO2 enrichment (575 µmol mol(-1) ) and 4 years of soil warming (+4 °C) and analysed δ(13) C and δ(18) O values of needles and tree rings. Tree needles under elevated [CO2 ] showed neither nitrogen limitation nor end-product inhibition, and no down-regulation of maximal photosynthetic rate (Amax ) was found. Both tree species showed increased net photosynthetic rates (An ) under elevated [CO2 ] (L. decidua: +39%; P. mugo: +35%). Stomatal conductance (gH2O ) was insensitive to changes in [CO2 ], thus transpiration rates remained unchanged and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) increased due to higher An . Soil warming affected neither An nor gH2O . Unresponsiveness of gH2O to [CO2 ] and warming was confirmed by δ(18) O needle and tree ring values. Consequently, under sufficient water supply, elevated [CO2 ] induced sustained enhancement in An and lead to increased C inputs into this ecosystem, while soil warming hardly affected gas exchange of L. decidua and P. mugo at the alpine treeline. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming.

PubMed

McFadden, Brandon R

2016-01-01

There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM) foods and human involvement in global warming (GW). Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual) or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community.

Examining the Gap between Science and Public Opinion about Genetically Modified Food and Global Warming

PubMed Central

McFadden, Brandon R.

2016-01-01

There is great uncertainty due to challenges of escalating population growth and climate change. Public perception that diverges from the scientific community may decrease the effectiveness of scientific inquiry and innovation as tools to solve these challenges. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with the divergence of public opinion from scientific consensus regarding the safety of genetically modified (GM) foods and human involvement in global warming (GW). Results indicate that the effects of knowledge on public opinion are complex and non-uniform across types of knowledge (i.e., perceived and actual) or issues. Political affiliation affects agreement with science; Democrats were more likely to agree that GM food is safe and human actions cause GW. Respondents who had relatively higher cognitive function or held illusionary correlations about GM food or GW were more likely to have an opinion that differed from the scientific community. PMID:27829008

Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, John F.; Valdivia, Abel

2016-07-01

The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density.

PubMed

Bruno, John F; Valdivia, Abel

2016-07-20

The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

PubMed Central

Bruno, John F.; Valdivia, Abel

2016-01-01

The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions. PMID:27435659

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

2010-10-01

This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Response of ocean ecosystems to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmiento, J. L.; Slater, R.; Barber, R.; Bopp, L.; Doney, S. C.; Hirst, A. C.; Kleypas, J.; Matear, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Monfray, P.; Soldatov, V.; Spall, S. A.; Stouffer, R.

2004-09-01

We examine six different coupled climate model simulations to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050. We use vertical velocity, maximum winter mixed layer depth, and sea ice cover to define six biomes. Climate warming leads to a contraction of the highly productive marginal sea ice biome by 42% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17% in the Southern Hemisphere, and leads to an expansion of the low productivity permanently stratified subtropical gyre biome by 4.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 9.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In between these, the subpolar gyre biome expands by 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% in the Southern Hemisphere, and the seasonally stratified subtropical gyre contracts by 11% in both hemispheres. The low-latitude (mostly coastal) upwelling biome area changes only modestly. Vertical stratification increases, which would be expected to decrease nutrient supply everywhere, but increase the growing season length in high latitudes. We use satellite ocean color and climatological observations to develop an empirical model for predicting chlorophyll from the physical properties of the global warming simulations. Four features stand out in the response to global warming: (1) a drop in chlorophyll in the North Pacific due primarily to retreat of the marginal sea ice biome, (2) a tendency toward an increase in chlorophyll in the North Atlantic due to a complex combination of factors, (3) an increase in chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean due primarily to the retreat of and changes at the northern boundary of the marginal sea ice zone, and (4) a tendency toward a decrease in chlorophyll adjacent to the Antarctic continent due primarily to freshening within the marginal sea ice zone. We use three different primary production algorithms to estimate the response of primary production to climate warming based on our estimated chlorophyll concentrations. The three algorithms give a global increase in primary production of 0.7% at the low end to 8.1% at the high end, with very large regional differences. The main cause of both the response to warming and the variation between algorithms is the temperature sensitivity of the primary production algorithms. We also show results for the period between the industrial revolution and 2050 and 2090.

Growth strategies and threshold responses to water deficit modulate effects of warming on tree seedlings from forest to alpine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lazarus, Brynne E.; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew; Kueppers, Lara M.; Moyes, Andrew B.

2018-01-01

1.Predictions of upslope range shifts for tree species with warming are based on assumptions of moisture stress at lower elevation limits and low temperature stress at high elevation limits. However, recent studies have shown that warming can reduce tree seedling establishment across the entire gradient from subalpine forest to alpine via moisture limitation. Warming effects also vary with species, potentially resulting in community shifts in high elevation forests. 2.We examined the growth and physiology underlying effects of warming on seedling demographic patterns. We evaluated dry mass (DM), root length, allocation above- and belowground, and relative growth rate (RGR) of whole seedlings, and their ability to avoid or endure water stress via water-use efficiency and resisting turgor loss, for Pinus flexilis, Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta seeded below, at, and above treeline in experimentally warmed, watered, and control plots in the Rocky Mountains, USA. We expected that growth and allocation responses to warming would relate to moisture status and that variation in drought tolerance traits would explain species differences in survival rates. 3.Across treatments and elevations, seedlings of all species had weak turgor-loss resistance, and growth was marginal with negative RGR in the first growth phase (-0.01 to -0.04 g/g/d). Growth was correlated with soil moisture, particularly in the relatively small-seeded P. contorta and P. engelmannii. P. flexilis, known to have the highest survivorship, attained the greatest DM and longest root but was also the slowest growing and most water-use-efficient. This was likely due to its greater reliance on seed reserves. Seedlings developed 15% less total DM, 25% less root DM, and 11% shorter roots in heated compared to unheated plots. Higher temperatures slightly increased DM, root length and RGR where soils were wettest, but more strongly decreased these variables under drier conditions. 4.Synthesis: The surprising heat-inhibition of tree seedling establishment at the cold edge of forests appears to have a physiological basis: newly germinated seedlings have poor moisture stress tolerance, which appears related to marginal initial growth and heavy reliance on seed reserves. Variation in these attributes among tree species at treeline helps explain their different climate responses.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

A multicentre, randomised, double-blind, single-dose study assessing the efficacy of AMC/DCBA Warm lozenge or AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge in the relief of acute sore throat

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Clinically proven over-the-counter (OTC) treatment options are becoming increasingly important in the self-management of acute sore throat. The aim of this study was to determine the analgesic and sensorial benefits of two different amylmetacresol/2,4-dichlorobenzyl alcohol (AMC/DCBA) throat lozenge formulation variants, AMC/DCBA Warm lozenge and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge, compared with an unflavoured, non-medicated placebo lozenge in the relief of acute sore throat due to upper respiratory tract infections. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, single-dose study, 225 adult patients with acute sore throat were randomly assigned to receive either one AMC/DCBA Warm lozenge (n = 77), one AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge (n = 74) or one unflavoured, non-medicated lozenge (matched for size, shape and demulcency; n = 74). After baseline assessments, patients received their assigned lozenge and completed four rating assessments at 11 timepoints from 1 to 120 minutes post dose. Analgesic properties were assessed by comparing severity of throat soreness and sore throat relief ratings. Difficulty in swallowing, throat numbness, functional, sensorial and emotional benefits were also assessed. Results Both the AMC/DCBA Warm and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge induced significant analgesic, functional, sensorial and emotional effects compared with the unflavoured, non-medicated lozenge. Sore throat relief, improvements in throat soreness and difficulty in swallowing, and throat numbness were observed as early as 1-5 minutes, and lasted up to 2 hours post dose. Sensorial benefits of warming and cooling associated with the AMC/DCBA Warm and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenge, respectively, were experienced soon after first dose, and in the case of the latter, it lasted long after the lozenge had dissolved. Emotional benefits of feeling better, happier, less distracted and less frustrated were reported in those taking either of the AMC/DCBA throat lozenge variants, with no differences in adverse events compared with the unflavoured, non-medicated lozenge. Conclusions AMC/DCBA Warm and AMC/DCBA Cool lozenges are well-tolerated and effective OTC treatment options, offering functional, sensorial and emotional benefits to patients with acute sore throat, over and above that of the rapid efficacy effects provided. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN00003567 PMID:21332976

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

2012-03-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-10-06

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE PAGES

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; ...

2016-12-15

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; Ban-Weiss, G.

2016-12-01

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing Impacts of Disturbances and Climate Change on Carbon Stocks in Mexican Semidry Forests of the Yucatan Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Z.; Birdsey, R.; Johnson, K.; Dupuy, J. M.; Hernandez-Stefanoni, J. L.; Richardson, K.

2014-12-01

The spatially explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC was used to estimate carbon dynamics with disturbances and climate change in secondary semidry forests in Yucatan Peninsula. The model was validated using observations from 276 field plots in a 350 km2 region of semi-deciduous forest surrounding the intensive monitoring site at Kaxil Kiuic, and it performed well with high performance efficiency (E=0.79, R2=0.83). The simulation results showed substantial spatial differences in biomass in the forests due to historical disturbance patterns and heterogeneous forest environments. The simulated impacts of the disturbances that occurred from 1998-2010 revealed an estimated loss of total biomass carbon storage of 154.7 Gg due mainly to about 12 km2 of forestland loss. The results from disturbance scenarios indicate that disastrous storms, which are not uncommon in the Yucatan Peninsula, can substantially impact carbon storage in a short time. However, warming can produce a long-term impact on carbon sequestration, due principally to the decrease in biomass carbon at a mean rate of over 100 kg ha-1yr-1 with an increase in temperature by 1 degree Celsius. The forests in this area are highly sensitive to warming due to a semidry climate where the evapotranspiration is higher than precipitation. Even if each degree of warming increase is accompanied by an increase in precipitation of 10%, the significant impact of warming cannot be dismissed.

Fluorescence and absorption spectroscopy for warm dense matter studies and ICF plasma diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Stephanie

2017-10-01

The burning core of an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) plasma at stagnation is surrounded by a shell of warm, dense matter whose properties are difficult both to model (due to a complex interplay of thermal, degeneracy, and strong coupling effects) and to diagnose (due to low emissivity and high opacity). We demonstrate a promising technique to study the warm dense shells of ICF plasmas based on the fluorescence emission of dopants or impurities in the shell material. This emission, which is driven by x-rays produced in the hot core, exhibits signature changes in response to compression and heating. High-resolution measurements of absorption and fluorescence features can refine our understanding of the electronic structure of material under high compression, improve our models of density-driven phenomena such as ionization potential depression and plasma polarization shifts, and help diagnose shell density, temperature, mass distribution, and residual motion in ICF plasmas at stagnation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Early Career Research Program, Office of Fusion Energy Sciences under FWP-14-017426.

Amplification of warming due to intensification of zonal circulation in the mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana

2015-04-01

We propose a new index to evaluate the impact of atmospheric zonal transport oscillations on inter-annual variability and trends of average air temperature in mid-latitudes, Northern Hemisphere and globe. A simple model of mid-latitude channel "ocean-land-atmosphere" was used to produce the analytic relationship between the zonal circulation and the land-ocean temperature contrast which was used as a basis for index. An inverse relationship was found between indexes and average mid-latitude, hemisphere and global temperatures during the cold half of year and opposite one in summer. These relationships keep under 400 mb height. In winter relationship describes up to 70, 50 and 40 % of surface air temperature inter-annual variability of these averages, respectively. The contribution of zonal circulation to the increase in the average surface air temperature during warming period 1969-2008 reaches 75% in the mid-latitudes and 40% in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed mid-latitude index correlates negatively with surface air temperature in the Arctic except summer. ECHAM4 projections with the A1B scenario show that increase of zonal circulation defines more than 74% of the warming in the Northern Hemisphere for 2001-2100. Our analysis confirms that the proposed index is an effective indicator of the climate change caused by variations of the zonal circulation that arise due to anthropogenic and/or natural global forcing mechanisms.

Responses of Plant Community Composition and Biomass Production to Warming and Nitrogen Deposition in a Temperate Meadow Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Gao, Song; Guo, Jixun; Sun, Wei

2015-01-01

Climate change has profound influences on plant community composition and ecosystem functions. However, its effects on plant community composition and biomass production are not well understood. A four-year field experiment was conducted to examine the effects of warming, nitrogen (N) addition, and their interactions on plant community composition and biomass production in a temperate meadow ecosystem in northeast China. Experimental warming had no significant effect on plant species richness, evenness, and diversity, while N addition highly reduced the species richness and diversity. Warming tended to reduce the importance value of graminoid species but increased the value of forbs, while N addition had the opposite effect. Warming tended to increase the belowground biomass, but had an opposite tendency to decrease the aboveground biomass. The influences of warming on aboveground production were dependent upon precipitation. Experimental warming had little effect on aboveground biomass in the years with higher precipitation, but significantly suppressed aboveground biomass in dry years. Our results suggest that warming had indirect effects on plant production via its effect on the water availability. Nitrogen addition significantly increased above- and below-ground production, suggesting that N is one of the most important limiting factors determining plant productivity in the studied meadow steppe. Significant interactive effects of warming plus N addition on belowground biomass were also detected. Our observations revealed that environmental changes (warming and N deposition) play significant roles in regulating plant community composition and biomass production in temperate meadow steppe ecosystem in northeast China. PMID:25874975

Effects of Seasonal Weather on Breeding Phenology and Reproductive Success of Alpine Ptarmigan in Colorado

PubMed Central

Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures. PMID:27420478

Effects of Seasonal Weather on Breeding Phenology and Reproductive Success of Alpine Ptarmigan in Colorado.

PubMed

Wann, Gregory T; Aldridge, Cameron L; Braun, Clait E

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

Effects of seasonal weather on breeding phenology and reproductive success of alpine ptarmigan in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wann, Greg; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Braun, Clait E.

2016-01-01

Animal populations occurring at high elevations are often assumed to be in peril of extinctions or local extirpations due to elevational-dispersal limitations and thermoregulatory constraints as habitats change and warm. However, long-term monitoring of high-elevation populations is uncommon relative to those occurring at lower elevations, and evidence supporting this assumption is limited. We analyzed 45 years of reproductive data for two Colorado populations of white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), an alpine-endemic species with restricted distribution in western North America. Seasonal temperatures measured by the number of growing degree days warmed significantly at our study sites for pre-nesting, nesting, and brood-rearing seasonal periods (mean advance of 8 growing degree days per decade), and both populations advanced their reproductive phenology over the study period based on median hatch dates (median advance of 3.7 and 1.9 days per decade for the northern and southern sites, respectively). Reproductive performance measured by the number of chicks per hen declined significantly at one study site but not the other, and differences between sites may have been due to habitat degradation at one study area. Annual variability in chicks per hen was large at both sites but only weakly related to seasonal weather. An index of precipitation and temperature during the brood-rearing period was the best predictor for reproductive success with warm and dry conditions relating positively to number of chicks per hen. Our results provide evidence for two alpine ptarmigan populations that are remarkably invariant to fluctuations in seasonal weather with respect to reproductive success as measured by number of chicks per hen in the breeding population. These results are surprising given the general perception of alpine animal populations as being highly sensitive to warming temperatures.

The Dominant Snow-forming Process in Warm and Cold Mixed-phase Orographic Clouds: Effects of Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Ice Nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, J.; Rosenfeld, D.; Leung, L. R.; DeMott, P. J.

2014-12-01

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring from long-range transport can be efficient ice nuclei (IN) and enhance snow precipitation in mixed-phase orographic clouds. On the other hand, local pollution particles can serve as good CCN and suppress warm rain, but their impacts on cold rain processes are uncertain. The main snow-forming mechanism in warm and cold mixed-phase orographic clouds (refer to as WMOC and CMOC, respectively) could be very different, leading to different precipitation response to CCN and IN. We have conducted 1-km resolution model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model for WMOC and CMOC cases from CalWater2011. We investigated the response of cloud microphysical processes and precipitation to CCN and IN with extremely low to extremely high concentrations using ice nucleation parameterizations that connect with dust and implemented based on observational evidences. We find that riming is the dominant process for producing snow in WMOC while deposition plays a more important role than riming in CMOC. Increasing IN leads to much more snow precipitation mainly due to an increase of deposition in CMOC and increased rimming in WMOC. Increasing CCN decreases precipitation in WMOC by efficiently suppressing warm rain, although snow is increased. In CMOC where cold rain dominates, increasing CCN significantly increases snow, leading to a net increase in precipitation. The sensitivity of supercooled liquid to CCN and IN has also been analyzed. The mechanism for the increased snow by CCN and caveats due to uncertainties in ice nucleation parameterizations will be discussed.

Acute Effect of Whole-Body Vibration Warm-up on Footspeed Quickness.

PubMed

Donahue, Ryan B; Vingren, Jakob L; Duplanty, Anthony A; Levitt, Danielle E; Luk, Hui-Ying; Kraemer, William J

2016-08-01

Donahue, RB, Vingren, JL, Duplanty, AA, Levitt, DE, Luk, H-Y, and Kraemer, WJ. Acute effect of whole-body vibration warm-up on footspeed quickness. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2286-2291, 2016-The warm-up routine preceding a training or athletic event can affect the performance during that event. Whole-body vibration (WBV) can increase muscle performance, and thus the inclusion of WBV to the warm-up routine might provide additional performance improvements. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the acute effect of a WBV warm-up, using a vertical oscillating platform and a more traditional warm-up protocol on feet quickness in physically active men. Twenty healthy and physically active men (18-25 years, 22 ± 3 years, 176.8 ± 6.4 cm, 84.4 ± 11.5 kg, 10.8 ± 1.4% body fat) volunteered for this study. A 2 × 2 factorial design was used to examine the effect of 4 warm-up scenarios (no warm-up, traditional warm-up only, WBV warm-up only, and combined traditional and WBV warm-up) on subsequent 3-second Quick feet count test (QFT) performance. The traditional warm-up consisted of static and dynamic exercises and stretches. The WBV warm-up consisted of 60 seconds of vertical sinusoidal vibration at a frequency of 35 Hz and amplitude of 4 mm on a vibration platform. The WBV protocol significantly (p ≤ 0.0005, η = 0.581) augmented QFT performance (WBV: 37.1 ± 3.4 touches; no-WBV: 35.7 ± 3.4 touches). The results demonstrate that WBV can enhance the performance score on the QFT. The findings of this study suggest that WBV warm-up should be included in warm-up routines preceding training and athletic events which include very fast foot movements.

Rapid warming in Tibet, China: public perception, response and coping resources in urban Lhasa

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Tibet, average altitude more than 4,000 meters, is warming faster than anywhere else in China. The increase in temperatures may aggravate existing health problems and lead to the emergence of new risks. However, there are no actions being taken at present to protect population health due to limited understanding about the range and magnitude of health effects of climate change. Methods The study was a cross-sectional survey of 619 respondents from urban Lhasa, Tibet in August 2012 with the aim to investigate public perceptions of risk, heat experiences, and coping resources. Results Respondents are aware of the warming that has occurred in Lhasa in recent years. Over 78% reported that rising temperature is either a “very” or “somewhat” serious threat to their own health, and nearly 40% reported they had experienced heat-related symptoms. Sex, age, education and income influenced perceived risks, health status, and heat experience. The vast majority of respondents reported that they had altered their behaviour on hot summer days. Bakuo, a sub-district at the city center, is considered especially vulnerable to heat because of sparse vegetation, high population density, poor dwelling conditions and a high proportion of low-income population. However, neighborhood social ties were stronger in Bakuo than other study locations. Conclusions The study suggests that actions are needed now to minimize downside effects of rapid warming in Tibet, because of increasing human exposure to high temperatures and uneven distribution of the resources needed to cope. PMID:24103412

Canadian Unilateralism in the Arctic: Using Scenario Planning to Help Canada Achieve Its Strategic Goals in the North

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-23

IN THE NORTH, by Major Sonny T. Hatton, 78 pages. Climate change and global warming could open up the Arctic to unprecedented energy and resource...heating up, both literally and figuratively. Climate change and global warming are melting the Polar ice cap in the North at an unprecedented rate...grow for Arctic nations as access increases due to global warming .35 Increased access and development in the Arctic will continue to encourage the

[Startup mechanism of moxibustion warming and dredging function].

PubMed

Huang, Kaiyu; Liang, Shuang; Sun, Zheng; Zhang, Jianbin

2017-09-12

With "moxibustion" and "warm stimulation" as the keywords, the literature on moxibustion mechanism of warming and dredging from June 1st, 1995 to June 1st, 2016 was collected from PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang database. The startup mechanism of moxibustion warming and dredging function was analyzed in terms of moxibustion warming stimulation. The results were found that moxibustion was based on local rising temperature of acupoint. It activated local specific receptors, heat sensitive immune cells, heat shock proteins and so on to start the warming and dredging function and produce various local effects. The warming stimulation signals as well as subsequent effects through nerve and body fluid pathways induced the effects of further specific target organs and body systems.

The Effect of a Novel Movement Strategy in Decreasing ACL Risk Factors in Female Adolescent Soccer Players: A Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Celebrini, Richard G.; Eng, Janice J.; Miller, William C.; Ekegren, Christina L.; Johnston, James D.; Depew, Thomas A.; MacIntyre, Donna L.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine the effect of a novel movement strategy incorporated within a soccer warm-up on biomechanical risk factors for ACL injury during three sport-specific movement tasks. Design Single-blind, randomized controlled clinical trial. Setting Laboratory setting. Participants 20 top-tier female teenage soccer players. Interventions Subjects were randomized to the Core Position and Control movement strategy (Core-PAC) warm-up or standard warm-up which took place prior to their regular soccer practice over a 6-week period. The Core-PAC focuses on getting the centre of mass closer to the plant foot or base of support. Main Outcome Measures Peak knee flexion angle and abduction moments during a side-hop (SH), side-cut (SC) and unanticipated side-cut (USC) task after the 6-weeks with (intervention group only) and without a reminder to use the Core-PAC strategy. Results The Core-PAC group increased peak flexion angles during the SH task (Mean difference = 6.2°, 95% CI: 1.9–10.5°, effect size = 1.01, P = 0.034) after the 6-week warm-up program without a reminder. In addition, the Core-PAC group demonstrated increased knee flexion angles for the side-cut (Mean difference = 8.5°, 95% CI: 4.8–12.2°, ES = 2.02, P = 0.001) and side-hop (Mean difference = 10.0°, 95% CI: 5.7–14.3°, ES = 1.66, P = 0.001) task after a reminder. No changes in abduction moments were found. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the Core-PAC may be one method of modifying high-risk soccer-specific movements and can be implemented within a practical, team-based soccer warm-up. The results should be interpreted with caution due to the small sample size. PMID:24184850

Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

2016-09-01

Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P < 0.05) and in summer enhanced greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P < 0.01). In contrast, increases in preseason Tmax did not advance green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P < 0.05). The stimulating effects of increasing Tmin were likely caused by reduced low temperature constraints, and the apparent negative effects of higher Tmax on greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A systematic review of the effects of upper body warm-up on performance and injury.

PubMed

McCrary, J Matt; Ackermann, Bronwen J; Halaki, Mark

2015-07-01

This systematic review was conducted to identify the impact of upper body warm-up on performance and injury prevention outcomes. Web of Science, MEDLINE, SPORTDiscus, PsycINFO and Cochrane databases were searched using terms related to upper extremity warm-up. Inclusion criteria were English language randomised controlled trials from peer-reviewed journals in which investigation of upper body warm-up on performance and injury prevention outcomes was a primary aim. Included studies were assessed for methodological quality using the PEDro scale. A wide variety of warm-up modes and outcomes precluded meta-analysis except for one group of studies. The majority of warm-ups were assessed as having 'positive', 'neutral', 'negative' or 'specific' effects on outcomes. Thirty-one studies met the inclusion criteria with 21 rated as having 'good' methodological quality. The studies investigated a total of 25 warm-up modes and 43 outcome factors that could be grouped into eight mode and performance outcome categories. No studies of upper body warm-up effects on injury prevention were discovered. Strong research-based evidence was found for the following: high-load dynamic warm-ups enhance power and strength performance; warm-up swings with a standard weight baseball bat are most effective for enhancing bat speed; short-duration static stretching warm-up has no effect on power outcomes; and passive heating/cooling is a largely ineffective warm-up mode. A clear knowledge gap in upper body warm-up literature is the lack of investigation of injury prevention outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

On axial temperature gradients due to large pressure drops in dense fluid chromatography.

PubMed

Colgate, Sam O; Berger, Terry A

2015-03-13

The effect of energy degradation (Degradation is the creation of net entropy resulting from irreversibility.) accompanying pressure drops across chromatographic columns is examined with regard to explaining axial temperature gradients in both high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC). The observed effects of warming and cooling can be explained equally well in the language of thermodynamics or fluid dynamics. The necessary equivalence of these treatments is reviewed here to show the legitimacy of using whichever one supports the simpler determination of features of interest. The determination of temperature profiles in columns by direct application of the laws of thermodynamics is somewhat simpler than applying them indirectly by solving the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. Both disciplines show that the preferred strategy for minimizing the reduction in peak quality caused by temperature gradients is to operate columns as nearly adiabatically as possible (i.e. as Joule-Thomson expansions). This useful fact, however, is not widely familiar or appreciated in the chromatography community due to some misunderstanding of the meaning of certain terms and expressions used in these disciplines. In fluid dynamics, the terms "resistive heating" or "frictional heating" have been widely used as synonyms for the dissipation function, Φ, in the NS energy equation. These terms have been widely used by chromatographers as well, but often misinterpreted as due to friction between the mobile phase and the column packing, when in fact Φ describes the increase in entropy of the system (dissipation, ∫TdSuniv>0) due to the irreversible decompression of the mobile phase. Two distinctly different contributions to the irreversibility are identified; (1) ΔSext, viscous dissipation of work done by the external surroundings driving the flow (the pump) contributing to its warming, and (2) ΔSint, entropy change accompanying decompression of fluid in the column, contributing either to warming or cooling depending on local density and temperature. The molecular basis for this variation is described. Sample calculations of dissipation and temperature profiles of several model fluids including carbon dioxide-methanol mixtures are presented, based on the NIST REFPROP program including select equations of state and property calculation software. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulated effects of southern hemispheric wind changes on the Pacific oxygen minimum zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getzlaff, Julia; Dietze, Heiner; Oschlies, Andreas

2016-01-01

A coupled ocean biogeochemistry-circulation model is used to investigate the impact of observed past and anticipated future wind changes in the Southern Hemisphere on the oxygen minimum zone in the tropical Pacific. We consider the industrial period until the end of the 21st century and distinguish effects due to a strengthening of the westerlies from effects of a southward shift of the westerlies that is accompanied by a poleward expansion of the tropical trade winds. Our model results show that a strengthening of the westerlies counteracts part of the warming-induced decline in the global marine oxygen inventory. A poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary, however, triggers a significant decrease of oxygen in the tropical oxygen minimum zone. In a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario, the poleward shift of the trade-westerlies boundary and warming-induced increase in stratification contribute equally to the expansion of suboxic waters in the tropical Pacific.

Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community

PubMed Central

Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf

2016-01-01

Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity PMID:26888225

Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Genet, H.; McGuire, Anthony David; Barrett, K.; Breen, A.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Johnstone, J.F.; Kasischke, E.S.; Melvin, A.M.; Bennett, A.; Mack, M.C.; Rupp, T.S.; Schuur, A.E.G.; Turetsky, M.R.; Yuan, F.

2013-01-01

There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and tested a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layer caused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness of 1.1 m on average by 2100. The combination of warming and fire led to a simulated cumulative loss of 9.6 kgC m−2 on average by 2100. Our analysis suggests that ecosystem carbon storage in boreal forests in interior Alaska is particularly vulnerable, primarily due to the combustion of organic layer thickness in fire and the related increase in active layer thickness that exposes previously protected permafrost soil carbon to decomposition.

Experimental soil warming at the treeline shifts fungal communities species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solly, Emily; Lindahl, Björn; Dawes, Melissa; Peter, Martina; Rixen, Christian; Hagedorn, Frank

2016-04-01

In terrestrial ecosystems, fungi play a major role in decomposition processes, plant nutrient uptake and nutrient cycling. In high elevation ecosystems in Alpine and Arctic regions, the fungal community may be particularly sensitive to climate warming due to the removal of temperature limitation in the plant and soil system, faster nutrient cycling and changes in plant carbon allocation to maintain roots systems and sustain the rhizosphere. In our study, we estimated the effects of 9 years CO2 enrichment and three years of experimental soil warming on the community structure of fungal microorganisms in an alpine treeline ecosystem. In the Swiss Alps, we worked on a total of 40 plots, with c. 40-year-old Larix decidua and Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata trees (20 plots for each tree species). Half of the plots with each tree species were randomly assigned to an elevated CO2 treatment (ambient concentration +200 ppm), whereas the remaining plots received no supplementary CO2. Five individual plots for each combination of CO2 concentration and tree species were heated by an average of 4°C during the growing season with heating cables at the soil surface. At the treeline, the fungal diversity analyzed by high-throughput 454-sequencing of genetic markers, was generally low as compared to low altitude systems and mycorrhizal species made a particularly small contribution to the total fungal DNA. Soil warming led to a shift in the structure and composition of the fungal microbial community, with an increase of litter degraders and ectomycorrhizal fungi. We further observed changes in the productivity of specific fungal fruiting bodies (i.e. more Lactarius rufus sporocarps and less Hygrophorus lucorum sporocarps) during the course of the experiment, that were consistent with the 454-sequencing data. The warming effect was more pronounced in the Larix plots. These shifts were accompanied by an increased soil CO2 efflux (+40%), evidence of increased N availability and a substantial reduction in fine root biomass (-40%) in warmed soils. In comparison, CO2 enrichment had a weaker effect on the composition of the fungal community. Collectively, our results show that soil warming alters fungal communities both directly, by higher temperature, and indirectly, by an improved nitrogen availability associated with an enhanced SOM cycling. These changes may have a vital effect on several ecosystem processes and, in particular, may alter the rate at which soil organic matter is formed and decomposed.

Effects of Short or Long Warm-up on Intermediate Running Performance.

PubMed

van den Tillaar, Roland; Vatten, Tormod; von Heimburg, Erna

2017-01-01

van den Tillaar, R, Vatten, T, and von Heimburg, E. Effects of short or long warm-up on intermediate running performance. J Strength Cond Res 31(1): 37-44, 2017-The aim of the study was to compare the effects of a long warm-up (general + specific) and a short warm-up (specific) on intermediate running performance (3-minute run). Thirteen experienced endurance-trained athletes (age 23.2 ± 2.3 years, body mass 79.8 ± 8.2 kg, body height 1.82 ± 0.05 m) conducted 2 types of warm-ups in a crossover design with 1 week in between: a long warm-up (10 minutes, 80% maximal heart rate, and 8 × 60 m sprint with increasing intensity and 1 minute rest in between) and a short warm-up (8 × 60 m sprint with increasing intensity and 1 minute rest in between). Each warm-up was followed by a 3-minute running test on a nonmotorized treadmill. Total running distance, running velocity at each 30 seconds, heart rate, blood lactate concentration, oxygen uptake, and rate of perceived exertion were measured. No significant differences in running performance variables and physiological parameters were found between the 2 warm-up protocols, except for the rate of perceived exertion and heart rate, which were higher after the long warm-up and after the 3-minute running test compared with the short warm-up. It was concluded that a short warm-up is as effective as a long warm-up for intermediate performance. Therefore, athletes can choose for themselves if they want to include a general part in their warm-up routines, even though it would not enhance their running performance more compared with only using a short, specific warm-up. However, to increase efficiency of time for training or competition, these short, specific warm-ups should be performed instead of long warm-ups.

Effects of warm-up on vertical jump performance and muscle electrical activity using half-squats at low and moderate intensity.

PubMed

Sotiropoulos, Konstantinos; Smilios, Ilias; Christou, Marios; Barzouka, Karolina; Spaias, Angelos; Douda, Helen; Tokmakidis, Savvas P

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a specific warm-up using half-squats at low and moderate intensity on vertical jump performance and electromyographic activity of the thigh muscles. The subjects were 26 men who were divided into a low intensity group (LIG; n = 13) and a moderate intensity group (MIG; n = 13). The LIG performed a specific warm-up protocol that included the explosive execution of half-squats with loads 25 and 35% of the one repetition maximum (1RM) and the MIG with loads 45 and 65% of the 1RM. The two groups performed a countermovement jump (CMJ) before and three minutes after the specific warm-up protocols. During the concentric phase of the CMJ a linear encoder connected to an A/D converter interfaced to a PC with a software for data acquisition and analysis allowed the calculation of average mechanical power. The electromyographic (EMG) activity of the vastus lateralis (VL), vastus medialis (VM) and rectus femoris (RF) were recorded during the concentric phase of the jumps. The average quadriceps (Qc) activity (mean value of the VL, VM and RF) was also calculated. A two way ANOVA (protocols X time) with repeated measures on the second factor was used to analyze the data. Following the specific warm-up procedure both groups improved (p ≤ 0.05) CMJ performance and mechanical power by 3.5% and 6.3%, respectively, with no differences observed between the two groups. EMG activity of the Qc and VL increased (p ≤ 0.05) for both groups by 5.9% and 8.5%, respectively. It is concluded that the use of a specific warm-up that includes half-squats, performed explosively with low to moderate intensity, improves CMJ performance. This may be due to increased muscle activation as evaluated by the surface EMG. Key pointsThe inclusion of two sets of explosively performed half squats with low to moderate loads in the warm up procedure elicited an acute performance en-hancement.The performance was enhanced regardless of the load used in the warm-up.The performance enhancement is accompanied by a greater electromyographic activity of the knee extensors muscles.

Effects of Warm-Up on Vertical Jump Performance and Muscle Electrical Activity Using Half-Squats at Low and Moderate Intensity

PubMed Central

Sotiropoulos, Konstantinos; Smilios, Ilias; Christou, Marios; Barzouka, Karolina; Spaias, Angelos; Douda, Helen; Tokmakidis, Savvas p.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of a specific warm-up using half-squats at low and moderate intensity on vertical jump performance and electromyographic activity of the thigh muscles. The subjects were 26 men who were divided into a low intensity group (LIG; n = 13) and a moderate intensity group (MIG; n = 13). The LIG performed a specific warm-up protocol that included the explosive execution of half-squats with loads 25 and 35% of the one repetition maximum (1RM) and the MIG with loads 45 and 65% of the 1RM. The two groups performed a countermovement jump (CMJ) before and three minutes after the specific warm-up protocols. During the concentric phase of the CMJ a linear encoder connected to an A/D converter interfaced to a PC with a software for data acquisition and analysis allowed the calculation of average mechanical power. The electromyographic (EMG) activity of the vastus lateralis (VL), vastus medialis (VM) and rectus femoris (RF) were recorded during the concentric phase of the jumps. The average quadriceps (Qc) activity (mean value of the VL, VM and RF) was also calculated. A two way ANOVA (protocols X time) with repeated measures on the second factor was used to analyze the data. Following the specific warm-up procedure both groups improved (p ≤ 0.05) CMJ performance and mechanical power by 3.5% and 6.3%, respectively, with no differences observed between the two groups. EMG activity of the Qc and VL increased (p ≤ 0.05) for both groups by 5.9% and 8.5%, respectively. It is concluded that the use of a specific warm-up that includes half-squats, performed explosively with low to moderate intensity, improves CMJ performance. This may be due to increased muscle activation as evaluated by the surface EMG. Key points The inclusion of two sets of explosively performed half squats with low to moderate loads in the warm up procedure elicited an acute performance en-hancement. The performance was enhanced regardless of the load used in the warm-up. The performance enhancement is accompanied by a greater electromyographic activity of the knee extensors muscles. PMID:24149703

Modeling the effects of UV variability and the QBO on the troposphere-stratosphere system. Part II: The troposphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rind, D.; Balachandran, N.K.

1995-08-01

Results of experiments with a GCM involving changes in UV input ({plus_minus} 25%, {plus_minus}5% at wavelengths below 0.3 {mu}) and simulated equatorial QBO are presented, with emphasis on the tropospheric response. The QBO and UV changes alter the temperature in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere warms, tropospheric eddy energy is reduced, leading to extratropical tropospheric cooling of some 0.5{degrees}C on the zonal average, and surface temperature changes up to {plus_minus}5{degrees}C locally. Opposite effects occur when the extratropical lower stratosphere/upper troposphere cools. Cooling or warming of the comparable region in the Tropics decreases/increases static stability, accelerating/decelerating the Hadley circulation. Tropospheric dynamical changesmore » are on the order of 5%. The combined UV/QBO effect in the troposphere results from its impact on the middle atmosphere; in the QBO east phase, more energy is refracted to higher latitudes, due to the increased horizontal shear of the zonal wind, but with increased UV, this energy propagates preferentially out of the polar lower stratosphere, in response to the increased vertical shear of the zonal winds; therefore, it is less effective in warming the polar lower stratosphere. Due to their impacts on planetary wave generation and propagation, all combinations of UV and QBO phases affect the longitudinal patterns of tropospheric temperatures and geopotential heights. The modeled perturbations often agree qualitatively with observations and are of generally similar orders of magnitude. The results are sensitive to the forcing employed. In particular, the nature of the tropospheric response depends upon the magnitude (and presumably wavelength) of the solar irradiance perturbation. The results of the smaller UV variations ({plus_minus}5%) are more in agreement with observations, showing clear differences between the UV impact in the east and west QBO phase. 34 refs., 15 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Simultaneous reductions in emissions of black carbon and co-emitted species will weaken the aerosol net cooling effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z. L.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X. Y.

2015-04-01

Black carbon (BC), a distinct type of carbonaceous material formed from the incomplete combustion of fossil and biomass based fuels under certain conditions, can interact with solar radiation and clouds through its strong light-absorption ability, thereby warming the Earth's climate system. Some studies have even suggested that global warming could be slowed down in the short term by eliminating BC emission due to its short lifetime. In this study, we estimate the influence of removing some sources of BC and other co-emitted species on the aerosol radiative effect by using an aerosol-climate atmosphere-only model BCC_AGCM2.0.1_CUACE/Aero with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice cover, in combination with the aerosol emissions from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. We find that the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) will be enhanced by 0.12 W m-2 compared with recent past year 2000 levels if the emissions of only BC are reduced to the level projected for 2100 based on the RCP2.6 scenario. This will be beneficial~for the mitigation of global warming. However, both aerosol negative direct and indirect radiative effects are weakened when BC and its co-emitted species (sulfur dioxide and organic carbon) are simultaneously reduced. Relative to year 2000 levels, the global annual mean aerosol net cooling effect at the TOA will be weakened by 1.7-2.0 W m-2 if the emissions of all these aerosols are decreased to the levels projected for 2100 in different ways based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Because there are no effective ways to remove the BC exclusively without influencing the other co-emitted components, our results therefore indicate that a reduction in BC emission can lead to an unexpected warming on the Earth's climate system in the future.

Influence of sea ice cover and icebergs on circulation and water mass formation in a numerical circulation model of the Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinniman, Michael S.; Klinck, John M.; Smith, Walker O.

2007-11-01

Satellite imagery shows that there was substantial variability in the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea during 2001-2003. Much of this variability is thought to be due to several large icebergs that moved through the area during that period. The effects of these changes in sea ice on circulation and water mass distributions are investigated with a numerical general circulation model. It would be difficult to simulate the highly variable sea ice from 2001 to 2003 with a dynamic sea ice model since much of the variability was due to the floating icebergs. Here, sea ice concentration is specified from satellite observations. To examine the effects of changes in sea ice due to iceberg C-19, simulations were performed using either climatological ice concentrations or the observed ice for that period. The heat balance around the Ross Sea Polynya (RSP) shows that the dominant term in the surface heat budget is the net exchange with the atmosphere, but advection of oceanic warm water is also important. The area average annual basal melt rate beneath the Ross Ice Shelf is reduced by 12% in the observed sea ice simulation. The observed sea ice simulation also creates more High-Salinity Shelf Water. Another simulation was performed with observed sea ice and a fixed iceberg representing B-15A. There is reduced advection of warm surface water during summer from the RSP into McMurdo Sound due to B-15A, but a much stronger reduction is due to the late opening of the RSP in early 2003 because of C-19.

Does Vibration Warm-up Enhance Kinetic and Temporal Sprint Parameters?

PubMed

Cochrane, D J; Cronin, M J; Fink, P W

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy of vibration warm-up to enhance sprint performance. 12 males involved in representative team sports performed 4 warm-up conditions in a randomised order performed at least 24 h apart; VbX warm-up (VbX-WU); Neural activation warm-up (Neu-WU); Dynamic warm-up (Dyn-WU) and Control (No VbX). Participants completed 5 m sprint at 30 s, 2:30 min and 5 min post warm-up where sprint time, kinetics, and temporal components were recorded. There was no significant (p>0.05) main effect or interaction effect between the split sprint times of 1 m, 2.5 m, and 5 m. There was a condition effect where vertical mean force was significantly higher (p<0.05) in Dyn-WU and Control compared to Neu-WU. No other significant (p>0.05) main and interaction effects in sprint kinetic and temporal parameters existed. Overall, all 4 warm-up conditions produced comparable results for sprint performance, and there was no detrimental effect on short-duration sprint performance using VbX-WU. Therefore, VbX could be useful for adding variety to the training warm-up or be included into the main warm-up routine as a supplementary modality. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.

PubMed

Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise

2018-01-01

Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

Energy storage and fecundity explain deviations from ecological stoichiometry predictions under global warming and size-selective predation.

PubMed

Zhang, Chao; Jansen, Mieke; De Meester, Luc; Stoks, Robby

2016-11-01

A key challenge for ecologists is to predict how single and joint effects of global warming and predation risk translate from the individual level up to ecosystem functions. Recently, stoichiometric theory linked these levels through changes in body stoichiometry, predicting that both higher temperatures and predation risk induce shifts in energy storage (increases in C-rich carbohydrates and reductions in N-rich proteins) and body stoichiometry (increases in C : N and C : P). This promising theory, however, is rarely tested and assumes that prey will divert energy away from reproduction under predation risk, while under size-selective predation, prey instead increase fecundity. We exposed the water flea Daphnia magna to 4 °C warming and fish predation risk to test whether C-rich carbohydrates increase and N-rich proteins decrease, and as a result, C : N and C : P increase under warming and predation risk. Unexpectedly, warming decreased body C : N, which was driven by reductions in C-rich fat and sugar contents while the protein content did not change. This reflected a trade-off where the accelerated intrinsic growth rate under warming occurred at the cost of a reduced energy storage. Warming reduced C : N less and only increased C : P and N : P in the fish-period Daphnia. These evolved stoichiometric responses to warming were largely driven by stronger warming-induced reductions in P than in C and N and could be explained by the better ability to deal with warming in the fish-period Daphnia. In contrast to theory predictions, body C : N decreased under predation risk due to a strong increase in the N-rich protein content that offsets the increase in C-rich fat content. The higher investment in fecundity (more N-rich eggs) under predation risk contributed to this stronger increase in protein content. Similarly, the lower body C : N of pre-fish Daphnia also matched their higher fecundity. Warming and predation risk independently shaped body stoichiometry, largely by changing levels of energy storage molecules. Our results highlight that two widespread patterns, the trade-off between rapid development and energy storage and the increased investment in reproduction under size-selective predation, cause predictable deviations from current ecological stoichiometry theory. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Climate warming promotes species diversity, but with greater taxonomic redundancy, in complex environments

PubMed Central

Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Purschke, Oliver; Ciobanu, Marcel; Cowles, Jane; Isbell, Forest; Wragg, Peter D.; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-01-01

Climate warming is predicted to alter species interactions, which could potentially lead to extinction events. However, there is an ongoing debate whether the effects of warming on biodiversity may be moderated by biodiversity itself. We tested warming effects on soil nematodes, one of the most diverse and abundant metazoans in terrestrial ecosystems, along a gradient of environmental complexity created by a gradient of plant species richness. Warming increased nematode species diversity in complex (16-species mixtures) plant communities (by ~36%) but decreased it in simple (monocultures) plant communities (by ~39%) compared to ambient temperature. Further, warming led to higher levels of taxonomic relatedness in nematode communities across all levels of plant species richness. Our results highlight both the need for maintaining species-rich plant communities to help offset detrimental warming effects and the inability of species-rich plant communities to maintain nematode taxonomic distinctness when warming occur. PMID:28740868

Mechanism of non-appearance of hiatus in Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Ma, Jieru; Guan, Xiaodan; Guo, Ruixia; Gan, Zewen; Xie, Yongkun

2017-06-30

In the recent decade, hiatus is the hottest issue in the community of climate change. As the area of great importance, the Tibetan Plateau (TP), however, did not appear to have any warming stoppage in the hiatus period. In fact, the TP showed a continuous warming in the recent decade. To explore why the TP did not show hiatus, we divide the surface air temperature into dynamically-induced temperature (DIT) and radiatively-forced temperature (RFT) by applying the dynamical adjustment method. Our results show that DIT displayed a relatively uniform warming background in the TP, with no obvious correlations with dynamic factors. Meanwhile, as the major contribution to warming, the RFT effect over the TP played the dominant role. The warming role is illustrated using the temperature change between perturbed and control simulation responses to CO 2 or black carbon (BC) forcing via Community Earth System Model (CESM). It shows that an obvious warming in the TP is induced by the CO 2 warming effect, and BC exhibits an amplifying effect on the warming. Therefore, the continuous warming in the TP was a result of uniform DIT warming over a large scale and enhanced RFT warming at a regional scale.

Experimental evaluation of reproductive response to climate warming in an oviparous skink.

PubMed

Lu, Hongliang; Wang, Yong; Tang, Wenqi; DU, Weiguo

2013-06-01

The impact of climate warming on organisms is increasingly being recognized. The experimental evaluation of phenotypically plastic responses to warming is a critical step in understanding the biological effects and adaptive capacity of organisms to future climate warming. Oviparous Scincella modesta live in deeply-shaded habitats and they require low optimal temperatures during embryonic development, which makes them suitable subjects for testing the effects of warming on reproduction. We raised adult females and incubated their eggs under different thermal conditions that mimicked potential climate warming. Female reproduction, embryonic development and hatchling traits were monitored to evaluate the reproductive response to warming. Experimental warming induced females to lay eggs earlier, but it did not affect the developmental stage of embryos at oviposition or the reproductive output. The high temperatures experienced by gravid females during warming treatments reduced the incubation period and increased embryonic mortality. The locomotor performance of hatchlings was not affected by the maternal thermal environment, but it was affected by the warming treatment during embryonic development. Our results suggest that climate warming might have a profound effect on fitness-relevant traits both at embryonic and post-embryonic stages in oviparous lizards. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Increased nitrogen leaching following soil freezing is due to decreased root uptake in a northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Anne M. Socci; Pamela H. Templer

2014-01-01

The depth and duration of snow pack is declining in the northeastern United States as a result of warming air temperatures. Since snow insulates soil, a decreased snow pack can increase the frequency of soil freezing, which has been shown to have important biogeochemical implications. One of the most notable effects of soil freezing is increased inorganic nitrogen...

CO2LD: An Educational Innovation Project for Advanced Vocational Training in Refrigeration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sánchez, Daniel; Llopis, Rodrigo; Patiño, Jorge; Cabello, Ramón; Torrella, Enrique

2013-01-01

Refrigeration is one of the technology sectors that has suffered the most changes in the last twenty years, because of the negative impact of the fluids used in the refrigeration cycles, i.e., refrigerants, due to their impact on the ozone layer and their contribution to global warming. As a result of their negative effects, the European Union has…

Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide during the transition from winter carbon source to spring carbon sink in a temperate urban lawn.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaoping; Wang, Xiaoke; Tong, Lei; Zhang, Hongxing; Lu, Fei; Zheng, Feixiang; Hou, Peiqiang; Song, Wenzhi; Ouyang, Zhiyun

2012-01-01

The significant warming in urban environment caused by the combined effects of global warming and heat island has stimulated widely development of urban vegetations. However, it is less known of the climate feedback of urban lawn in warmed environment. Soil warming effect on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide during the transition period from winter to spring was investigated in a temperate urban lawn in Beijing, China. The NEE (negative for uptake) under soil warming treatment (temperature was about 5 degrees C higher than the ambient treatment as a control) was -0.71 micromol/(m2 x sec), the ecosytem was a CO2 sink under soil warming treatment, the lawn ecosystem under the control was a CO2 source (0.13 micromol/(m2 x sec)), indicating that the lawn ecosystem would provide a negative feedback to global warming. There was no significant effect of soil warming on nocturnal NEE (i.e., ecosystem respiration), although the soil temperature sensitivity (Q10) of ecosystem respiration under soil warming treatment was 3.86, much lower than that in the control (7.03). The CO2 uptake was significantly increased by soil warming treatment that was attributed to about 100% increase of alpha (apparent quantum yield) and Amax (maximum rate of photosynthesis). Our results indicated that the response of photosynthesis in urban lawn is much more sensitive to global warming than respiration in the transition period.

[A comparison of the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of elderly patients with abdominal surgery].

PubMed

Park, Hyosun; Yoon, Haesang

2007-12-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of abdominal surgical patients under general anesthesia. Data collection was performed from January 4th, to May 31, 2004. The intravenous fluid warming(IFW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed through an IV line by an Animec set to 37 degrees C. The skin surface warming (SSW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed by a circulating-water blanket set to 38 degrees C under the back and a 60W heating lamp 40 cm above the chest. The warming continued from induction of general anesthesia to two hours after completion of surgery. Collected data was analyzed using Repeated Measures ANOVA, and Bonferroni methods. SSW was more effective than IFW in preventing hypothermia(p= .043), preventing a decrease of HCO(3)(-)(p= .000) and preventing base excess (p= .000) respectively. However, there was no difference in pH between the SSW and IFW (p= .401) groups. We conclude that skin surface warming is more effective in preventing hypothermia, and HCO(3)(-) and base excess during general anesthesia, and returning to normal body temperature after surgery than intravenous fluid warming; however, skin surface warming wasn't able to sustain a normal body temperature in elderly patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia.

Plants regulate the effects of experimental warming on the soil microbial community in an alpine scrub ecosystem.

PubMed

Ma, Zhiliang; Zhao, Wenqiang; Zhao, Chunzhang; Wang, Dong; Liu, Mei; Li, Dandan; Liu, Qing

2018-01-01

Information on how soil microbial communities respond to warming is still scarce for alpine scrub ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment with two plant treatments (plant removal or undisturbed) subjected to warmed or unwarmed conditions to examine the effects of warming and plant removal on soil microbial community structures during the growing season in a Sibiraea angustata scrubland of the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that experimental warming significantly influenced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), but the warming effects were dependent on the plant treatments and sampling seasons. In the plant-removal plots, warming did not affect most of the microbial variables, while in the undisturbed plots, warming significantly increased the abundances of actinomycete and Gram-positive bacterial groups during the mid-growing season (July), but it did not affect the fungi groups. Plant removal significantly reduced fungal abundance throughout the growing season and significantly altered the soil microbial community structure in July. The interaction between warming and plant removal significantly influenced the soil MBC and MBN and the abundances of total microbes, bacteria and actinomycete throughout the growing season. Experimental warming significantly reduced the abundance of rare taxa, while the interaction between warming and plant removal tended to have strong effects on the abundant taxa. These findings suggest that the responses of soil microbial communities to warming are regulated by plant communities. These results provide new insights into how soil microbial community structure responds to climatic warming in alpine scrub ecosystems.

Plants regulate the effects of experimental warming on the soil microbial community in an alpine scrub ecosystem

PubMed Central

Ma, Zhiliang; Zhao, Wenqiang; Zhao, Chunzhang; Wang, Dong; Liu, Mei; Li, Dandan

2018-01-01

Information on how soil microbial communities respond to warming is still scarce for alpine scrub ecosystems. We conducted a field experiment with two plant treatments (plant removal or undisturbed) subjected to warmed or unwarmed conditions to examine the effects of warming and plant removal on soil microbial community structures during the growing season in a Sibiraea angustata scrubland of the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. The results indicate that experimental warming significantly influenced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN), but the warming effects were dependent on the plant treatments and sampling seasons. In the plant-removal plots, warming did not affect most of the microbial variables, while in the undisturbed plots, warming significantly increased the abundances of actinomycete and Gram-positive bacterial groups during the mid-growing season (July), but it did not affect the fungi groups. Plant removal significantly reduced fungal abundance throughout the growing season and significantly altered the soil microbial community structure in July. The interaction between warming and plant removal significantly influenced the soil MBC and MBN and the abundances of total microbes, bacteria and actinomycete throughout the growing season. Experimental warming significantly reduced the abundance of rare taxa, while the interaction between warming and plant removal tended to have strong effects on the abundant taxa. These findings suggest that the responses of soil microbial communities to warming are regulated by plant communities. These results provide new insights into how soil microbial community structure responds to climatic warming in alpine scrub ecosystems. PMID:29668711

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

The global consequences of increasing tropospheric ozone concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fishman, Jack

1989-01-01

Recent analyses of long term records of tropospheric ozone measurements in the Northern Hemisphere suggest that it is increasing at a rate of 1 to 2 percent per year. Because of this, it is argued that the amount of atmospheric warming due to increasing tropospheric ozone is comparable to, or possibly even greater than, the amount of warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide. Unlike all other climatically important trace gases, ozone is toxic, and increases in its concentration will result in serious environmental damage, as well as impairment of human health.

Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

2014-12-01

Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

PubMed Central

Teplitsky, Celine; Millien, Virginie

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate. PMID:24454554

Observations of net soil exchange of CO2 in a dryland show experimental warming increases carbon losses in biocrust soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Reed, Sasha C.; Grote, Ed; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Many arid and semiarid ecosystems have soils covered with well-developed biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) made up of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface. These communities are a fundamental component of dryland ecosystems, and are critical to dryland carbon (C) cycling. To examine the effects of warming temperatures on soil C balance in a dryland ecosystem, we used infrared heaters to warm biocrust-dominated soils to 2 °C above control conditions at a field site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We monitored net soil exchange (NSE) of CO2 every hour for 21 months using automated flux chambers (5 control and 5 warmed chambers), which included the CO2 fluxes of the biocrusts and the soil beneath them. We observed measurable photosynthesis in biocrust soils on 12 % of measurement days, which correlated well with precipitation events and soil wet-up. These days included several snow events, providing what we believe to be the first evidence of substantial photosynthesis underneath snow by biocrust organisms in drylands. Overall, biocrust soils in both control and warmed plots were net CO2 sources to the atmosphere, with control plots losing 62 ± 8 g C m−2 (mean ± SE) over the first year of measurement and warmed plots losing 74 ± 9 g C m−2. Between control and warmed plots, the difference in soil C loss was uncertain over the course of the entire year due to large and variable rates in spring, but on days during which soils were wet and crusts were actively photosynthesizing, biocrusts that were warmed by 2 °C had a substantially more negative C balance (i.e., biocrust soils took up less C and/or lost more C in warmed plots). Taken together, our data suggest a substantial risk of increased C loss from biocrust soils with higher future temperatures, and highlight a robust capacity to predict CO2 exchange in biocrust soils using easily measured environmental parameters.

Mesospheric signatures observed during 2010 minor stratospheric warming at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Hong, Junseok; Kim, Jeong-Han; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Chandran, A.; Rao, S. V. B.; Riggin, Dennis

2016-03-01

A minor stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. Among the three warming events, the signature of mesosphere response was detected only for the September event in the mesospheric wind dataset from both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W) and Rothera (68°S, 68°W), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW event, as has been observed in the 2002 major SSW. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with stratospheric warmings are found in temperatures measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Simulations of specified dynamics version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) are able to reproduce these observed features. The mesospheric wind field was found to differ significantly from that of normal years probably due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSW. From the wavelet analysis of wind data of both stations, we find that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere. Our study provides evidence that minor SSWs in SH can result in significant effects on the mesospheric dynamics as in the northern hemisphere.

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-06-01

Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors.

Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.

Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and generality of this pattern to other systems.« less

Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming

DOE PAGES

Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.

2016-09-26

Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and generality of this pattern to other systems.« less

IMMEDIATE EFFECTS OF A DYNAMIC ROTATION-SPECIFIC WARM-UP ON X-FACTOR AND X-FACTOR STRETCH IN THE AMATEUR GOLFER.

PubMed

Henry, Elizabeth; Berglund, Kathy; Millar, Lynn; Locke, Frederick

2015-12-01

Recent evidence suggests performing a warm-up prior to golf can improve performance and reduce injuries. While some characteristics of effective golf warm-ups have been determined, no studies have explored the immediate effects of a rotational-specific warm-up with elements of motor control on the biomechanical aspects of the full X-Factor and X-Factor Stretch during the golf swing. Thirty-six amateur golfers (mean ± SD age: 64 ± 8 years old; 75% male) were randomized into a Dynamic Rotation-Specific Warm-up group (n=20), or a Sham Warm-up group (n=16). X-Factor and X-Factor Stretch were measured at baseline and immediately following the warm-up. Mixed model ANCOVAs were used to determine if a Group*Time interaction existed for each variable with group as the between-subjects variable and time as the within-subjects variable. The mixed model ANCOVAs did not reveal a statistically significant group*time interaction for X-Factor or X-Factor Stretch. There was not a significant main effect for time for X-Factor but there was for X-Factor Stretch. These results indicate that neither group had a significant effect on improving X-Factor, however performing either warm-up increased X-Factor Stretch without significant difference between the two. The results of this study suggest that performing the Dynamic Rotation-Specific Warm-up did not increase X-Factor or X-Factor Stretch when controlled for age compared to the Sham Warm-up. Further study is needed to determine the long-term effects of the Dynamic Rotation-Specific Warm-up on performance factors of the golf swing while examining across all ages. 2b.

Effects of experimental throughfall reduction and soil warming on fine root biomass and its decomposition in a warm temperate oak forest.

PubMed

Liu, Yanchun; Liu, Shirong; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Jingxin; Wang, Hui; Liu, Kuan

2017-01-01

Fine root dynamics play a critical role in regulating carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Examining responses of fine root biomass and its decomposition to altered precipitation pattern and climate warming is crucial to understand terrestrial C dynamics and its feedback to climate change. Fine root biomass and its decomposition rate were investigated in a warm temperate oak forest through a field manipulation experiment with throughfall reduction and soil warming conducted. Throughfall reduction significantly interacted with soil warming in affecting fine root biomass and its decomposition. Throughfall reduction substantially increased fine root biomass and its decomposition in unheated plots, but negative effects occurred in warmed plots. Soil warming significantly enhanced fine root biomass and its decomposition under ambient precipitation, but the opposite effects exhibited under throughfall reduction. Different responses in fine root biomass among different treatments could be largely attributed to soil total nitrogen (N), while fine root decomposition rate was more depended on microbial biomass C and N. Our observations indicate that decreased precipitation may offset the positive effect of soil warming on fine root biomass and decomposition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

PubMed

Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

2017-08-01

Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for assessing and monitoring impacts of chemicals on ecosystems facing global warming. We advise complementing existing monitoring approaches with directly quantifying ecosystem processes and services. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warming reinforces nonconsumptive predator effects on prey growth, physiology, and body stoichiometry.

PubMed

Janssens, Lizanne; Van Dievel, Marie; Stoks, Robby

2015-12-01

While nonconsumptive effects of predators may strongly affect prey populations, little is known how future warming will modulate these effects. Such information would be especially relevant with regard to prey physiology and resulting changes in prey stoichiometry. We investigated in Enallagma cyathigerum damselfly larvae the effects of a 4°C warming (20°C vs. 24°C) and predation risk on growth rate, physiology and body stoichiometry, for the first time including all key mechanisms suggested by the general stress paradigm (GSP) on how stressors shape changes in body stoichiometry. Growth rate and energy storage were higher at 24°C. Based on thermodynamic principles and the growth rate hypothesis, we could demonstrate predictable reductions in body C:P under warming and link these to the increase in P-rich RNA; the associated warming-induced decrease in C:N may be explained by the increased synthesis of N-rich proteins. Yet, under predation risk, growth rate instead decreased with warming and the warming-induced decreases in C:N and C:P disappeared. As predicted by the GSP, larvae increased body C:N and C:P at 24°C under predation risk. Notably, we did not detect the assumed GSP-mechanisms driving these changes: despite an increased metabolic rate there was neither an increase of C-rich biomolecules (instead fat and sugar contents decreased under predation risk), nor a decrease of N-rich proteins. We hypothesize that the higher C:N and N:P under predation risk are caused by a higher investment in morphological defense. This may also explain the stronger predator-induced increase in C:N under warming. The expected higher C:P under predation risk was only present under warming and matched the observed growth reduction and associated reduction in P-rich RNA. Our integrated mechanistic approach unraveled novel pathways of how warming and predation risk shape body stoichiometry. Key findings that (1) warming effects on elemental stoichiometry were predictable and only present in the absence of predation risk and that (2) warming reinforced the predator-induced effects on C:N:P, are pivotal in understanding how nonconsumptive predator effects under global warming will shape prey populations.

The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China.

PubMed

Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

2015-07-27

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957-2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05). Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001). The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

PubMed Central

Huang, Qunfang; Lu, Yuqi

2015-01-01

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA) has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI) effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime) and maximal (daytime) air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05). Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001). The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming. PMID:26225986

Adaptive capacity of the habitat modifying sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii to ocean warming and ocean acidification: performance of early embryos.

PubMed

Foo, Shawna A; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Poore, Alistair G B; Byrne, Maria

2012-01-01

Predicting effects of rapid climate change on populations depends on measuring the effects of climate stressors on performance, and potential for adaptation. Adaptation to stressful climatic conditions requires heritable genetic variance for stress tolerance present in populations. We quantified genetic variation in tolerance of early development of the ecologically important sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii to near-future (2100) ocean conditions projected for the southeast Australian global change hot spot. Multiple dam-sire crosses were used to quantify the interactive effects of warming (+2-4 °C) and acidification (-0.3-0.5 pH units) across twenty-seven family lines. Acidification, but not temperature, decreased the percentage of cleavage stage embryos. In contrast, temperature, but not acidification decreased the percentage of gastrulation. Cleavage success in response to both stressors was strongly affected by sire identity. Sire and dam identity significantly affected gastrulation and both interacted with temperature to determine developmental success. Positive genetic correlations for gastrulation indicated that genotypes that did well at lower pH also did well in higher temperatures. Significant genotype (sire) by environment interactions for both stressors at gastrulation indicated the presence of heritable variation in thermal tolerance and the ability of embryos to respond to changing environments. The significant influence of dam may be due to maternal provisioning (maternal genotype or environment) and/or offspring genotype. It appears that early development in this ecologically important sea urchin is not constrained in adapting to the multiple stressors of ocean warming and acidification. The presence of tolerant genotypes indicates the potential to adapt to concurrent warming and acidification, contributing to the resilience of C. rodgersii in a changing ocean.

Adaptive Capacity of the Habitat Modifying Sea Urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii to Ocean Warming and Ocean Acidification: Performance of Early Embryos

PubMed Central

Foo, Shawna A.; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Byrne, Maria

2012-01-01

Background Predicting effects of rapid climate change on populations depends on measuring the effects of climate stressors on performance, and potential for adaptation. Adaptation to stressful climatic conditions requires heritable genetic variance for stress tolerance present in populations. Methodology/Principal Findings We quantified genetic variation in tolerance of early development of the ecologically important sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii to near-future (2100) ocean conditions projected for the southeast Australian global change hot spot. Multiple dam-sire crosses were used to quantify the interactive effects of warming (+2–4°C) and acidification (−0.3−0.5 pH units) across twenty-seven family lines. Acidification, but not temperature, decreased the percentage of cleavage stage embryos. In contrast, temperature, but not acidification decreased the percentage of gastrulation. Cleavage success in response to both stressors was strongly affected by sire identity. Sire and dam identity significantly affected gastrulation and both interacted with temperature to determine developmental success. Positive genetic correlations for gastrulation indicated that genotypes that did well at lower pH also did well in higher temperatures. Conclusions/Significance Significant genotype (sire) by environment interactions for both stressors at gastrulation indicated the presence of heritable variation in thermal tolerance and the ability of embryos to respond to changing environments. The significant influence of dam may be due to maternal provisioning (maternal genotype or environment) and/or offspring genotype. It appears that early development in this ecologically important sea urchin is not constrained in adapting to the multiple stressors of ocean warming and acidification. The presence of tolerant genotypes indicates the potential to adapt to concurrent warming and acidification, contributing to the resilience of C. rodgersii in a changing ocean. PMID:22880005

Diurnal warming impacts on atmospheric and oceanic evolution during the suppressed phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clayson, C. A.; Roberts, J.

2016-02-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) represents a prominent mode of intraseasonal tropical variability as manifest by coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, convection, and thermodynamic processes. Its impacts are far-reaching with influences on monsoons, flooding, droughts, and tropical storms. The characteristic timescale of the MJO is positioned in a gap between synoptic forecasting and longer range seasonal to interannual predictions, but has been shown to be dependent on diurnally-varying sea surface temperature (SST). In this work, we leverage a wide suite of satellite products with in situ oceanographic data over the 2002-2012 period to investigate the rectification effects of strong ocean diurnal warming onto the development of intraseasonal SST variability, and whether there a detectable influence on the diurnal cycle of cloud-radiative effects in the suppressed phase of the MJO. Diurnally-varying SST is used as a conditional sampling parameter, along with AIRS/AMSU-A temperature and moisture profiles, surface winds, radiative and turbulent surface fluxes, and precipitation. We use composite daily average atmospheric BL depths, changes in lower-tropospheric stability, and moist static energy to evaluate changes in convective inhibition based on the diurnal variability of surface parcel characteristics due to turbulent heat fluxes, and compare with diurnal changes in cloud-radiative effects and precipitation. Argo floats and ocean modeling experiments are used to examine the upper ocean response. An ensemble of MJO simulations are generated using Argo profiles and satellite-derived surface forcing from which the systematic impacts of diurnal variability on the generation of the intraseasonal SST warming are evaluated. These simulations inform the importance of diurnal variations in surface boundary forcing to upper ocean mixing and the integrated contribution to SST warming over the typical duration of a suppressed phase of the MJO.

Circumpolar arctic tundra biomass and productivity dynamics in response to projected climate change and herbivory.

PubMed

Yu, Qin; Epstein, Howard; Engstrom, Ryan; Walker, Donald

2017-09-01

Satellite remote sensing data have indicated a general 'greening' trend in the arctic tundra biome. However, the observed changes based on remote sensing are the result of multiple environmental drivers, and the effects of individual controls such as warming, herbivory, and other disturbances on changes in vegetation biomass, community structure, and ecosystem function remain unclear. We apply ArcVeg, an arctic tundra vegetation dynamics model, to estimate potential changes in vegetation biomass and net primary production (NPP) at the plant community and functional type levels. ArcVeg is driven by soil nitrogen output from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, existing densities of Rangifer populations, and projected summer temperature changes by the NCAR CCSM4.0 general circulation model across the Arctic. We quantified the changes in aboveground biomass and NPP resulting from (i) observed herbivory only; (ii) projected climate change only; and (iii) coupled effects of projected climate change and herbivory. We evaluated model outputs of the absolute and relative differences in biomass and NPP by country, bioclimate subzone, and floristic province. Estimated potential biomass increases resulting from temperature increase only are approximately 5% greater than the biomass modeled due to coupled warming and herbivory. Such potential increases are greater in areas currently occupied by large or dense Rangifer herds such as the Nenets-occupied regions in Russia (27% greater vegetation increase without herbivores). In addition, herbivory modulates shifts in plant community structure caused by warming. Plant functional types such as shrubs and mosses were affected to a greater degree than other functional types by either warming or herbivory or coupled effects of the two. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellander, Per-Erik; Stähli, Manfred; Gustafsson, David; Bishop, Kevin

2006-06-01

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring-early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70-year-old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high-latitude stands.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Effect of Various Parameters on Evolution of 2D Free Jets and their Associated Entrainment Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Mazyar; Dabiri, Dana; Navaz, Homayun

2006-11-01

Refrigerated vertical display cases are extensively used in supermarkets and grocery stores. Cold air is supplied vertically across the open face of the display case from the top, creating a cold air curtain acting as a barrier to separate the cold air within the case from the warm ambient air. Typically, 70-80% of the load on these vertical display cases is due to cooling of infiltrated warm ambient air. Our goal is to understand parameters affecting warm air infiltration into the case so as to minimize the cooling load. Towards this end, steady state behavior of 2D vertical air jets at Reynolds numbers 2,000 to 10,000 with low and high turbulence intensities (0% &10%) at the nozzle exit are experimentally and computationally investigated both within a quiescent ambient and next to an open cavity. Four different velocity profile shapes (top-hat, parabola, skewed parabola and linear) at the jet exit are also studied to determine profile effects on the evolution of and entrainment into the jet. Results will be presented to show the effect of these parameters on the total entrainment into the jet, as well as the variation of entrainment across the jet at different downstream locations. The results of this work can help better understand how to design air curtains as a buffer to minimize infiltration into open refrigerated vertical display cases.

Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation.

PubMed

Hedwall, Per-Ola; Skoglund, Jerry; Linder, Sune

2015-02-01

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate.

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation

PubMed Central

Hedwall, Per-Ola; Skoglund, Jerry; Linder, Sune

2015-01-01

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate. PMID:25750720

Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

PubMed Central

Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

2015-01-01

Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two “resting” meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a “resting” state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change. PMID:26565706

Mediating Water Temperature Increases Due to Livestock and Global Change in High Elevation Meadow Streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness.

PubMed

Nusslé, Sébastien; Matthews, Kathleen R; Carlson, Stephanie M

2015-01-01

Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout Wilderness, California, we measured riparian vegetation and monitored water temperature in three meadow streams between 2008 and 2013, including two "resting" meadows and one meadow that is partially grazed. All three meadows have been subject to grazing by cattle and sheep since the 1800s and their streams are home to the imperiled California golden trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita). In 1991, a livestock exclosure was constructed in one of the meadows (Mulkey), leaving a portion of stream ungrazed to minimize the negative effects of cattle. In 2001, cattle were removed completely from two other meadows (Big Whitney and Ramshaw), which have been in a "resting" state since that time. Inside the livestock exclosure in Mulkey, we found that riverbank vegetation was both larger and denser than outside the exclosure where cattle were present, resulting in more shaded waters and cooler maximal temperatures inside the exclosure. In addition, between meadows comparisons showed that water temperatures were cooler in the ungrazed meadows compared to the grazed area in the partially grazed meadow. Finally, we found that predicted temperatures under different global warming scenarios were likely to be higher in presence of livestock grazing. Our results highlight that land use can interact with climate change to worsen the local thermal conditions for taxa on the edge and that protecting riparian vegetation is likely to increase the resiliency of these ecosystems to climate change.

Increased temperatures negatively affect Juniperus communis seeds: evidence from transplant experiments along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Gruwez, R; De Frenne, P; Vander Mijnsbrugge, K; Vangansbeke, P; Verheyen, K

2016-05-01

With a distribution range that covers most of the Northern hemisphere, common juniper (Juniperus communis) has one of the largest ranges of all vascular plant species. In several regions in Europe, however, populations are decreasing in size and number due to failing recruitment. One of the main causes for this failure is low seed viability. Observational evidence suggests that this is partly induced by climate warming, but our mechanistic understanding of this effect remains incomplete. Here, we experimentally assess the influence of temperature on two key developmental phases during sexual reproduction, i.e. gametogenesis and fertilisation (seed phase two, SP2) and embryo development (seed phase three, SP3). Along a latitudinal gradient from southern France to central Sweden, we installed a transplant experiment with shrubs originating from Belgium, a region with unusually low juniper seed viability. Seeds of both seed phases were sampled during three consecutive years, and seed viability assessed. Warming temperatures negatively affected the seed viability of both SP2 and SP3 seeds along the latitudinal gradient. Interestingly, the effect on embryo development (SP3) only occurred in the third year, i.e. when the gametogenesis and fertilisation also took place in warmer conditions. We found strong indications that this negative influence mostly acts via disrupting growth of the pollen tube, the development of the female gametophyte and fertilisation (SP2). This, in turn, can lead to failing embryo development, for example, due to nutritional problems. Our results confirm that climate warming can negatively affect seed viability of juniper. © 2015 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Effects of increasing temperature and, CO2 on quality of litter, shredders, and microorganisms in Amazonian aquatic systems

PubMed Central

Rezende, Renan de Souza; Gonçalves Júnior, José Francisco; Lopes, Aline; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Cavalcante, Heloide de Lima; Hamada, Neusa

2017-01-01

Climate change may affect the chemical composition of riparian leaf litter and, aquatic organisms and, consequently, leaf breakdown. We evaluated the effects of different scenarios combining increased temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) on leaf detritus of Hevea spruceana (Benth) Müll. and decomposers (insect shredders and microorganisms). We hypothesized that simulated climate change (warming and elevated CO2) would: i) decrease leaf-litter quality, ii) decrease survival and leaf breakdown by shredders, and iii) increase microbial leaf breakdown and fungal biomass. We performed the experiment in four microcosm chambers that simulated air temperature and CO2 changes in relation to a real-time control tracking current conditions in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. The experiment lasted seven days. During the experiment mean air temperature and CO2 concentration ranged from 26.96 ± 0.98ºC and 537.86 ± 18.36 ppmv in the control to 31.75 ± 0.50ºC and 1636.96 ± 17.99 ppmv in the extreme chamber, respectively. However, phosphorus concentration in the leaf litter decreased with warming and elevated CO2. Leaf quality (percentage of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, cellulose and lignin) was not influenced by soil flooding. Fungal biomass and microbial leaf breakdown were positively influenced by temperature and CO2 increase and reached their highest values in the intermediate condition. Both total and shredder leaf breakdown, and shredder survival rate were similar among all climatic conditions. Thus, low leaf-litter quality due to climate change and higher leaf breakdown under intermediate conditions may indicate an increase of riparian metabolism due to temperature and CO2 increase, highlighting the risk (e.g., decreased productivity) of global warming for tropical streams. PMID:29190723

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, R.

2012-12-01

During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content.

PubMed

Garzke, Jessica; Hansen, Thomas; Ismar, Stefanie M H; Sommer, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1-5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts.

Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Copepod Abundance, Body Size and Fatty Acid Content

PubMed Central

Hansen, Thomas; Ismar, Stefanie M. H.; Sommer, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Concerns about increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming have initiated studies on the consequences of multiple-stressor interactions on marine organisms and ecosystems. We present a fully-crossed factorial mesocosm study and assess how warming and acidification affect the abundance, body size, and fatty acid composition of copepods as a measure of nutritional quality. The experimental set-up allowed us to determine whether the effects of warming and acidification act additively, synergistically, or antagonistically on the abundance, body size, and fatty acid content of copepods, a major group of lower level consumers in marine food webs. Copepodite (developmental stages 1–5) and nauplii abundance were antagonistically affected by warming and acidification. Higher temperature decreased copepodite and nauplii abundance, while acidification partially compensated for the temperature effect. The abundance of adult copepods was negatively affected by warming. The prosome length of copepods was significantly reduced by warming, and the interaction of warming and CO2 antagonistically affected prosome length. Fatty acid composition was also significantly affected by warming. The content of saturated fatty acids increased, and the ratios of the polyunsaturated essential fatty acids docosahexaenoic- (DHA) and arachidonic acid (ARA) to total fatty acid content increased with higher temperatures. Additionally, here was a significant additive interaction effect of both parameters on arachidonic acid. Our results indicate that in a future ocean scenario, acidification might partially counteract some observed effects of increased temperature on zooplankton, while adding to others. These may be results of a fertilizing effect on phytoplankton as a copepod food source. In summary, copepod populations will be more strongly affected by warming rather than by acidifying oceans, but ocean acidification effects can modify some temperature impacts. PMID:27224476

Cost-effectiveness of forced air warming during sedation in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory.

PubMed

Conway, Aaron; Duff, Jed; Sutherland, Joanna

2018-05-13

To determine the cost-effectiveness of forced air warming during sedation in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Forced air warming improves thermal comfort in comparison with standard care. It is not known whether the extra costs required for forced air warming are good value. Cost-effectiveness analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial conducted in 2016-2017. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken using Monte Carlo simulations from input distributions to estimate costs and effects associated with using forced air warming to reduce risk of thermal discomfort for patients receiving sedation in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory. A range of willingness to pay threshold values were tested with results plotted on a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Costs were calculated in Australian currency ($AUD). Estimated total costs were $5.21 (SD 3.26) higher per patient for forced air warming in comparison to standard care. Estimated probability of success (rating of thermal comfort) was 0.16 (0.06) higher for forced air warming. Forced air warming becomes more likely to result in a net benefit than standard care at a willingness to pay threshold of $34. Forced air warming could be considered cost-effective for procedures performed with sedation in a cardiac catheterisation laboratory if the extra cost of an incremental gain in thermal comfort is less than the decision maker's willingness to pay for it. Therefore, those responsible for decision-making regarding use of forced air warming in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory can use results of our model to decide if it represents good value for their organisation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Climate change and response of geosystems of the Russian North (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drozdov, D. S.; Korostelev, Y. V.; Malkova, G. V.; Melnikov, V. P.; Orekhov, P. T.; Ukraintseva, N. G.

2010-12-01

The study of climate change, mainly air temperature and snow cover depth, is a key to understanding of modern trends in evolution of cryolithozone and response of geosystems of the North. Greenhouse and technogenic effects influence the cryolithozone and permafrost as well. Scenarios of substantial warming, temperate warming, and cooling were considered in our research. Weather station records show that the last so called “Earth Global Warming”, which started in 1960-1970s was initially most pronounced in Subarctic and Temperate zones. Maximum warming rate was observed in the 1980s. In Russia, the areas of warming in 20th century were Central Yakutia and Transbaikal, while in the European and Far East Russia the rate of warming was rather small. Later, the warming trend was observed only locally and new areas of maximum rates of warming appear within Russian cryolithozone. In 2000s, warming gradually extends to the Arctic regions while it slows down in Subarctic. Thermal regime of permafrost generally follows the climate change. Geocryological monitoring data evidence the rise of ground temperature at the depth of zero annual amplitude in the north of West Siberia by 0.2 to 1.4°C and in European Russia by 0.1 to 0.7°C. In these regions, slight trend of snow accumulation growth was also observed. At the same time, in Central Yakutia, though climate warms, permafrost temperature does not show increase due to reduction of snow depth in the last decades. In West Siberia, Urengoi gas field, ground temperatures in 1975-1993 increased by 1 to 1.5°C due to natural climate fluctuations (some times up to 2 to 3.5°C). Human impact added 1 to 1.5°C, this last being tightly linked to the effect of engineering structures. Some slowing of thaw and stabilization of ground temperature around 0°C is observed as incoming heat is consumed by phase transition in the near-surface layer. I was instrumentally detected that permafrost table lowered by 5-8 m and more at the forested and shrubby sites. According to our calculations, during the last 30 years, the southern limit of patchy near-surface permafrost shifted northward by 100-120 km in West Siberia, and by 20-50 km in European Russia. Continuous permafrost area in Russia reduced by 1,000,000 km2 (15%) compared to 1960-70-s. This also means changes in hydrology and hydrogeology, occurrence of new and activation of existing exogenic processes, reduction of bearing capacity of the ground used as foundations for roads, pipelines and so on. Climate change became evident also in the landscape appearance of geosystems of the North. In 1975-1980 at the left bank of Pur-river (West Siberia) thin larch forests could be met only at the hill tops of southern forest-tundra zone. Observations in 2007-2008 showed a mass expansion of larch northward into the former forest-free hilltops of northern forest-tundra. Moreover, in 1999 in southern tundra sub-zone at the hill tops 2-3-year old larch undergrowth 10-20 cm high was observed as well, though during several subsequent cold, with little snow winters those larch trees were frost-killed. In High Russian Arctic the ground temperature is not uniform: at Belyi Island (73.5° N) it varies from 11 to 7°C; at Frantz-Joseph Zemlia Archipelago (80.5° N) - from 11.5 to 10.5°C.

Shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector: The role of the atmospheric response to local SST changes vs. large-scale changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Greatbatch, Richard; Bader, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Climate change simulations robustly show a warming hole in the sub-polar North Atlantic that results from slowing of the AMOC countering the global warming signal. Here we investigate how the distinct SST spatial structures, which include a sharpening of the Gulf Stream SST gradients, influence climate change in the NA sector in winter. For this we analyse the RCP8.5 scenario simulation of the MPI Earth System Model. Additional sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric model component, ECHAM5, are performed to deconstruct the effect of the local spatial structure of the SST change from those arising from large-scale warming of the ocean, remote SST pattern changes and changed radiative forcings. The MPI model simulation shows a signifcant decrease in precipitation to the south of the GS extension region in the future, despite a strong increase in underlying SST. While directly to the north there is a significant increase in precipitation. These distinct features in the precipitation response over the North Atlantic result from the local SST. Over the Gulf Stream, the differential structure of the precipitation changes reflects the changes of the local SST gradients there. Over the subpolar gyre the increase in precipitation is partly suppressed. In this region the Subpolar Gyre the weakened AMOC causes a SST warming, that is much weaker than the warming other regions of the ocean show at the same latitude. The large-scale response, which includes the overall increase in precipitation over the NA is due to the overall warming, remote SSTs and/or directly connected to the radiative forcing.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1995-01-01

A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

Hypotheses to explain the origin of species in Amazonia.

PubMed

Haffer, J

2008-11-01

The main hypotheses proposed to explain barrier formation separating populations and causing the differentiation of species in Amazonia during the course of geological history are based on different factors, as follow: (1) Changes in the distribution of land and sea or in the landscape due to tectonic movements or sea level fluctuations (Paleogeography hypothesis), (2) the barrier effect of Amazonian rivers (River hypothesis), (3) a combination of the barrier effect of broad rivers and vegetational changes in northern and southern Amazonia (River-refuge hypothesis), (4) the isolation of humid rainforest blocks near areas of surface relief in the periphery of Amazonia separated by dry forests, savannas and other intermediate vegetation types during dry climatic periods of the Tertiary and Quaternary (Refuge hypothesis), (5) changes in canopy-density due to climatic reversals (Canopy-density hypothesis) (6) the isolation and speciation of animal populations in small montane habitat pockets around Amazonia due to climatic fluctuations without major vegetational changes (Museum hypothesis), (7) competitive species interactions and local species isolations in peripheral regions of Amazonia due to invasion and counterinvasion during cold/warm periods of the Pleistocene (Disturbance-vicariance hypothesis) and (8) parapatric speciation across steep environmental gradients without separation of the respective populations (Gradient hypothesis). Several of these hypotheses probably are relevant to a different degree for the speciation processes in different faunal groups or during different geological periods. The basic paleogeography model refers mainly to faunal differentiation during the Tertiary and in combination with the Refuge hypothesis. Milankovitch cycles leading to global main hypotheses proposed to explain barrier formation separating populations and causing the differentiation of species in Amazonia during the course of geological history are based on different factors, as follow: (1) Changes in the distribution of land and sea or in the landscape due to tectonic movements or sea level fluctuations (Paleogeography hypothesis), (2) the barrier effect of Amazonian rivers (River hypothesis), (3) a combination of the barrier effect of broad rivers and vegetational changes in northern and southern Amazonia (River-refuge hypothesis), (4) the isolation of humid rainforest blocks near areas of surface relief in the periphery of Amazonia separated by dry forests, savannas and other intermediate vegetation types during dry climatic periods of the Tertiary and Quaternary (Refuge hypothesis), (5) changes in canopy-density due to climatic reversals (Canopy-density hypothesis) (6) the isolation and speciation of animal populations in small montane habitat pockets around Amazonia due to climatic fluctuations without major vegetational changes (Museum hypothesis), (7) competitive species interactions and local species isolations in peripheral regions of Amazonia due to invasion and counterinvasion during cold/warm periods of the Pleistocene (Disturbance-vicariance hypothesis) and (8) parapatric speciation across steep environmental gradients without separation of the respective populations (Gradient hypothesis). Several of these hypotheses probably are relevant to a different degree for the speciation processes in different faunal groups or during different geological periods. The basic paleogeography model refers mainly to faunal differentiation during the Tertiary and in combination with the Refuge hypothesis. Milankovitch cycles leading to global climatic-vegetational changes affected the biomes of the world not only during the Pleistocene but also during the Tertiary and earlier geological periods. New geoscientific evidence for the effect of dry climatic periods in Amazonia supports the predictions of the Refuge hypothesis. The disturbance-vicariance hypothesis refers to the presumed effect of cold/warm climatic phases of the Pleistocene only and is of limited general relevance because most extant species originated earlier and probably through paleogeographic changes and the formation of ecological refuges during the Tertiary.

Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes.

PubMed

Ni, Xiangyin; Yang, Wanqin; Qi, Zemin; Liao, Shu; Xu, Zhenfeng; Tan, Bo; Wang, Bin; Wu, Qinggui; Fu, Changkun; You, Chengming; Wu, Fuzhong

2017-08-01

Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (-22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (-18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes-climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single-factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the effects of UV variability and the QBO on the troposphere-stratosphere system. Part I: The middle atmosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balachandran, N.K.; Rind, D.

1995-08-01

Results of experiments with a GCM involving changes in UV input ({plus_minus}25%, {plus_minus}10%, {plus_minus}5% at wavelengths below 0.3 {mu}m) and simulated equatorial QBO are presented, with emphasis on the middle atmosphere response. The UV forcing employed is larger than observed during the last solar cycle and does not vary with wavelength, hence the relationship of these results to those from actual solar UV forcing should be treated with caution. The QBO alters the location of the zero wind line and the horizontal shear of the zonal wind in the low to middle stratosphere, while the UV change alters the magnitudemore » of the polar jet and the vertical shear of the zonal wind. Both mechanisms thus affect planetary wave propagation. The east phase of the QBO leads to tropical cooling and high-latitude warming in the lower stratosphere, with opposite effects in the upper stratosphere. This quadrupole pattern is also seen in the observations. The high-latitude responses are due to altered planetary wave effects, while the model`s tropical response in the upper stratosphere is due to gravity wave drag. Increased UV forcing warms tropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere, resulting in stronger extratropical west winds, an effect which peaks in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere with the more extreme UV forcing but at lower altitudes and smaller wind variations with the more realistic forcing. The increased vertical gradient of the zonal wind leads to increased vertical propagation of planetary waves, altering energy convergences and temperatures. The exact altitudes affected depend upon the UV forcing applied. Results with combined QBO and UV forcing show that in the Northern Hemisphere, polar warming for the east QBO is stronger when the UV input is reduced by 25% and 5% as increased wave propagation to high latitudes (east QBO effect) is prevented from then propagating vertically (reduced UV effect). 30 refs., 14 figs., 6 tabs.« less

[Effects of soil warming on specific respiration rate and non-structural carbohydrate concentration in fine roots of Chinese fir seedlings].

PubMed

Song, Tao Tao; Chen, Guang Shui; Shi, Shun Zeng; Guo, Run Quan; Zheng, Xin; Xiong, De Cheng; Chen, Wang Yuan; Chen, Ting Ting

2018-03-01

A field mesocosm experiment with Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) seedlings was conducted in Chenda State-Owned Forest Farm, Sanming, Fujian Province. The effects of soil warming (ambient +5 ℃) on specific respiration rates and nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations in fine roots were measured by the ingrowth core method, to reveal the belowground responses and the adaptability of Chinese fir to global warming. The results showed that soil warming caused significant changes of fine root NSC in the second year. The NSC and starch concentrations in 0-1 mm fine roots, and the NSC and sugar concentrations in 1-2 mm fine roots decreased signifi-cantly in January. The NSC, sugar and starch concentrations in 0-1 mm roots and the starch concentration in 1-2 mm roots increased in July. Soil warming had no significant effect on fine root NSC in the third year. The specific root respiration rate of the 0-1 mm roots significantly increased in July of the second year but significantly decreased in July of the third year in the warmed plots. Compared with the 0-1 mm roots, soil warming had no significant effect on the specific root respiration rate of the 1-2 mm roots. In conclusion, the responses of fine root respiration to soil warming depended on the duration of warming. Fine root respiration partly acclimated to soil warming with increasing duration of soil warming, which kept fine root NSC being relatively stable.

Vibration exercise as a warm-up modality for deadlift power output.

PubMed

Cochrane, Darryl J; Coley, Karl W; Pritchard, Hayden J; Barnes, Matthew J

2015-04-01

Vibration exercise (VbX) has gained popularity as a warm-up modality to enhance performance in golf, baseball, and sprint cycling, but little is known about the efficacy of using VbX as a warm-up before resistance exercise, such as deadlifting. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of a deadlift (DL)-specific warm-up, VbX warm-up, and Control on DL power output (PO). The DL warm-up (DL-WU) included 10, 8, and 5 repetitions performed at 30, 40, and 50% 1-repetition maximum (1RM), respectively, where the number of repetitions was matched by body-weight squats performed with vibration and without vibration (Control). The warm-up conditions were randomized and performed at least 2 days apart. Peak power (PP), mean power, rate of force development (RFD), and electromyography (EMG) were measured during the concentric phase of 2 consecutive DLs (75% 1RM) at 30 seconds and 2:30 minutes after the warm-up conditions. There was no significant (p > 0.05) main effect or interaction effect between the DL-WU, VbX warm-up, and Control for PP, mean power, RFD, and EMG. Vibration exercise warm-up did not exhibit an ergogenic effect to potentiate muscle activity more than the specific DL-WU and Control. Therefore, DL PO is affected to a similar extent, irrespective of the type of stimuli, when the warm-up is not focused on raising muscle temperature.

Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: results from a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

2010-06-15

One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13Wm(-2) with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 degrees C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 degrees C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 degrees C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 degrees C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 degrees C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate warming. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global cooling?

PubMed

Damon, P E; Kunen, S M

1976-08-06

The world's inhabitants, including Scientists, live primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. It is quite natural to be concerned about events that occur close to home and neglect faraway events. Hence, it is not surprising that so little attention has been given to the Southern Hemisphere. Evidence for global cooling has been based, in large part, on a severe cooling trend at high northern latitudes. This article points out that the Northern Hemisphere cooling trend appears to be out of phase with a warming trend at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. The data are scanty. We cannot be sure that these temperature fluctuations are be not the result of natural causes. How it seems most likely that human activity has already significantly perturbed the atmospheric weather system. The effect of particulate matter pollution should be most severe in the highly populated and industrialized Northern Hemisphere. Because of the rapid diffusion of CO(2) molecules within the atmosphere, both hemispheres will be subject to warming due to the atmospheric (greenhouse) effect as the CO(2) content of the atmosphere builds up from the combustion of fossil fuels. Because of the differential effects of the two major sources of atmospheric pollution, the CO(2) greenhouse effect warming trend should first become evident in the Southern Hemisphere. The socioeconomic and political consequences of climate change are profound. We need an early warning system such as would be provided by a more intensive international world weather watch, particularly at high northern and southern latitudes.

Effects of bedtime periocular and posterior cervical cutaneous warming on sleep status in adult male subjects: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Igaki, Michihito; Suzuki, Masahiro; Sakamoto, Ichiro; Ichiba, Tomohisa; Kuriyama, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Makoto

2018-01-01

Appropriate warming of the periocular or posterior cervical skin has been reported to induce autonomic or mental relaxation in humans. To clarify the effects of cutaneous warming on human sleep, eight male subjects with mild sleep difficulties were asked to try three experimental conditions at home, each lasting for 5 days, in a cross-over manner: warming of the periocular skin with a warming device for 10 min before habitual bedtime, warming of the posterior cervical skin with a warming device for 30 min before habitual bedtime, and no treatment as a control. The warming device had a heat- and steam-generating sheet that allowed warming of the skin to 40 °C through a chemical reaction with iron. Electroencephalograms (EEGs) were recorded during nocturnal sleep using an ambulatory EEG device and subjected to spectral analysis. All the participants reported their sleep status using a visual analog scale. We found that warming of the periocular or posterior cervical skin significantly improved subjective sleep status relative to the control. The EEG delta power density in the first 90 min of the sleep episode was significantly increased under both warming of the periocular or posterior cervical skin relative to the control. These results suggest that warming of appropriate skin regions may have favorable effects on subjective and objective sleep quality.

Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

A high-frequency warm shallow water acoustic communications channel model and measurements.

PubMed

Chitre, Mandar

2007-11-01

Underwater acoustic communication is a core enabling technology with applications in ocean monitoring using remote sensors and autonomous underwater vehicles. One of the more challenging underwater acoustic communication channels is the medium-range very shallow warm-water channel, common in tropical coastal regions. This channel exhibits two key features-extensive time-varying multipath and high levels of non-Gaussian ambient noise due to snapping shrimp-both of which limit the performance of traditional communication techniques. A good understanding of the communications channel is key to the design of communication systems. It aids in the development of signal processing techniques as well as in the testing of the techniques via simulation. In this article, a physics-based channel model for the very shallow warm-water acoustic channel at high frequencies is developed, which are of interest to medium-range communication system developers. The model is based on ray acoustics and includes time-varying statistical effects as well as non-Gaussian ambient noise statistics observed during channel studies. The model is calibrated and its accuracy validated using measurements made at sea.

Mathematical Modelling of Plankton-Oxygen Dynamics Under the Climate Change.

PubMed

Sekerci, Yadigar; Petrovskii, Sergei

2015-12-01

Ocean dynamics is known to have a strong effect on the global climate change and on the composition of the atmosphere. In particular, it is estimated that about 70% of the atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. However, the rate of oxygen production depends on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. In this paper, we address this issue theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that a sustainable oxygen production is only possible in an intermediate range of the production rate. If, in the course of time, the oxygen production rate becomes too low or too high, the system's dynamics changes abruptly, resulting in the oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. Our results indicate that the depletion of atmospheric oxygen on global scale (which, if happens, obviously can kill most of life on Earth) is another possible catastrophic consequence of the global warming, a global ecological disaster that has been overlooked.

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability

PubMed Central

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P.; Joshi, Manoj M.

2016-01-01

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies. PMID:27044090

Importance of ocean salinity for climate and habitability.

PubMed

Cullum, Jodie; Stevens, David P; Joshi, Manoj M

2016-04-19

Modeling studies of terrestrial extrasolar planetary climates are now including the effects of ocean circulation due to a recognition of the importance of oceans for climate; indeed, the peak equator-pole ocean heat transport on Earth peaks at almost half that of the atmosphere. However, such studies have made the assumption that fundamental oceanic properties, such as salinity, temperature, and depth, are similar to Earth. This assumption results in Earth-like circulations: a meridional overturning with warm water moving poleward at the surface, being cooled, sinking at high latitudes, and traveling equatorward at depth. Here it is shown that an exoplanetary ocean with a different salinity can circulate in the opposite direction: an equatorward flow of polar water at the surface, sinking in the tropics, and filling the deep ocean with warm water. This alternative flow regime results in a dramatic warming in the polar regions, demonstrated here using both a conceptual model and an ocean general circulation model. These results highlight the importance of ocean salinity for exoplanetary climate and consequent habitability and the need for its consideration in future studies.

Timing the warm absorber in NGC4051

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, C.; Uttley, P.; Costantini, E.

2015-07-01

In this work we have combined spectral and timing analysis in the characterization of highly ionized outflows in Seyfert galaxies, the so-called warm absorbers. Here, we present our results on the extensive ˜600ks of XMM-Newton archival observations of the bright and highly variable Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC4051, whose spectrum has revealed a complex multi-component wind. Working simultaneously with RGS and PN data, we have performed a detailed analysis using a time-dependent photoionization code in combination with spectral and Fourier timing techniques. This method allows us to study in detail the response of the gas due to variations in the ionizing flux of the central source. As a result, we will show the contribution of the recombining gas to the time delays of the most highly absorbed energy bands relative to the continuum (Silva, Uttley & Costantini in prep.), which is also vital information for interpreting the continuum lags associated with propagation and reverberation effects in the inner emitting regions. Furthermore, we will illustrate how this powerful method can be applied to other sources and warm-absorber configurations, allowing for a wide range of studies.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-01-01

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed Central

Salzmann, Marc

2016-01-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in Cloud-Resolving Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seeley, J.; Romps, D. M.

2015-12-01

Recent work by Singh and O'Gorman has produced a theory for convective available potential energy (CAPE) in radiative-convective equilibrium. In this model, the atmosphere deviates from a moist adiabat—and, therefore, has positive CAPE—because entrainment causes evaporative cooling in cloud updrafts, thereby steepening their lapse rate. This has led to the proposal that CAPE increases with global warming because the strength of evaporative cooling scales according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, CAPE could also change due to changes in cloud buoyancy and changes in the entrainment rate, both of which could vary with global warming. To test the relative importance of changes in CAPE due to CC scaling of evaporative cooling, changes in cloud buoyancy, and changes in the entrainment rate, we subject a cloud-resolving model to a suite of natural (and unnatural) forcings. We find that CAPE changes are primarily driven by changes in the strength of evaporative cooling; the effect of changes in the entrainment rate and cloud buoyancy are comparatively small. This builds support for CC scaling of CAPE.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Archuleta County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, San Miguel County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Fremont County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Routt County, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled"warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Alamosa and Saguache Counties, Colorado

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Surface Temperature Anomalies Derived from Night Time ASTER Data Corrected for Solar and Topographic Effects, Dolores County

DOE Data Explorer

Khalid Hussein

2012-02-01

This map shows areas of anomalous surface temperature in Alamosa and Saguache Counties identified from ASTER thermal data and spatial based insolation model. The temperature is calculated using the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm that separate temperature from emissivity. The incoming solar radiation was calculated using spatial based insolation model developed by Fu and Rich (1999). Then the temperature due to solar radiation was calculated using emissivity derived from ASTER data. The residual temperature, i.e. temperature due to solar radiation subtracted from ASTER temperature was used to identify thermally anomalous areas. Areas that had temperature greater than 2o were considered ASTER modeled "very warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in red on the map. Areas that had temperatures between 1o and 2o were considered ASTER modeled "warm modeled surface temperature" are shown in yellow on the map. This map also includes the locations of shallow temperature survey points, locations of springs or wells with favorable geochemistry, faults, transmission lines, and areas of modeled basement weakness "fairways." Note: 'o' is used in this description to represent lowercase sigma.

Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

1994-01-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective regions. The positive coupling between SST and the radiative warming of the surface by the water vapor greenhouse effect is also shown to exist on interannual time scales.

The effects of warmed intravenous fluids, combined warming (warmed intravenous fluids with humid-warm oxygen), and pethidine on the severity of shivering in general anesthesia patients in the recovery room

PubMed Central

Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya

2015-01-01

Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258

Warm Up to a Good Sound

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tovey, David C.

1977-01-01

Most choral directors in schools today have been exposed to a variety of warm-up procedures. Yet, many do not use the warm-up time effectively as possible. Considers the factors appropriate to a warm-up exercise and three basic warm-up categories. (Author/RK)

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)