Early age rutting potential of warm mix asphalt (WMA).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

Various plant produced Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) mixtures were evaluated and compared to identical plant produced Hot Mix Asphalt to assess their early life rutting potential. Along with laboratory permanent deformation testing, fatigue and moisture dam...

Warming shifts 'worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America.

PubMed

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B

2014-11-03

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.

Warming shifts ‘worming': effects of experimental warming on invasive earthworms in northern North America

PubMed Central

Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B.

2014-01-01

Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration. PMID:25363633

Areas of potential suitability and survival of Dendroctonus valens in China under extreme climate warming scenario.

PubMed

He, S Y; Ge, X Z; Wang, T; Wen, J B; Zong, S X

2015-08-01

The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with warming estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971-2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010-2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-warming scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010-2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of extreme climate warming and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.

Energetic contribution potential of building-integrated photovoltaics on airports in warm climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruether, Ricardo; LABSOLAR - Laboratorio de Energia Solar, UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900; Braun, Priscila

2009-10-15

Especially in warm climates, a considerable fraction of the electricity demand in commercial buildings is due to the intensive use of air-conditioning systems. Airport buildings in sunny and warm regions present a perfect match between energy demand and solar resource availability. Airport buildings are also typically large and horizontal, isolated and free of shading, and have a great potential for the integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. In this work, we assess the potential impact in energy demand reduction at the Florianopolis International Airport in Brazil (27 S, 48 W) with the use of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. We analysemore » the building's hourly energy consumption and solar irradiation data, to assess the match between energy demand and potential generation, and we estimate the PV power necessary to supply both the total amount and fractions of the annual energy demand. Our results show that the integration of PV systems on airport buildings in warm climates can supply the entire electric power consumption of an airport complex, in line with the general concept of a zero-energy building (ZEB). (author)« less

Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications.

PubMed

Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C L

2015-05-20

Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼ 35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition 'worsened' at the same time. The 'worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the 'better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Potential impacts of global warming on water resources in southern California.

PubMed

Beuhler, M

2003-01-01

Global warming will have a significant impact on water resources within the 20 to 90-year planning period of many water projects. Arid and semi-arid regions such as Southern California are especially vulnerable to anticipated negative impacts of global warming on water resources. Long-range water facility planning must consider global climate change in the recommended mix of new facilities needed to meet future water requirements. The generally accepted impacts of global warming include temperature, rising sea levels, more frequent and severe floods and droughts, and a shift from snowfall to rain. Precipitation changes are more difficult to predict. For Southern California, these impacts will be especially severe on surface water supplies. Additionally, rising sea levels will exacerbate salt-water intrusion into freshwater and impact the quality of surface water supplies. Integrated water resources planning is emerging as a tool to develop water supplies and demand management strategies that are less vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. These tools include water conservation, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater and desalination of brackish water and possibly seawater. Additionally, planning for future water needs should include explicit consideration of the potential range of global warming impacts through techniques such as scenario planning.

Lattice Stability and Interatomic Potential of Non-equilibrium Warm Dense Gold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Mo, M.; Soulard, L.; Recoules, V.; Hering, P.; Tsui, Y. Y.; Ng, A.; Glenzer, S. H.

2017-10-01

Interatomic potential is central to the calculation and understanding of the properties of matter. A manifestation of interatomic potential is lattice stability in the solid-liquid transition. Recently, we have used frequency domain interferometry (FDI) to study the disassembly of ultrafast laser heated warm dense gold nanofoils. The FDI measurement is implemented by a spatial chirped single-shot technique. The disassembly of the sample is characterized by the change in phase shift of the reflected probe resulted from hydrodynamic expansion. The experimental data is compared with the results of two-temperature molecular dynamic simulations based on a highly optimized embedded-atom-method (EAM) interatomic potential. Good agreement is found for absorbed energy densities of 0.9 to 4.3MJ/kg. This provides the first demonstration of the applicability of an EAM interatomic potential in the non-equilibrium warm dense matter regime. The MD simulations also reveal the critical role of pressure waves in solid-liquid transition in ultrafast laser heated nanofoils. This work is supported by DOE Office of Science, Fusion Energy Science under FWP 100182, and SLAC LDRD program.

Halocarbon ozone depletion and global warming potentials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cox, Richard A.; Wuebbles, D.; Atkinson, R.; Connell, Peter S.; Dorn, H. P.; Derudder, A.; Derwent, Richard G.; Fehsenfeld, F. C.; Fisher, D.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

1990-01-01

Concern over the global environmental consequences of fully halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has created a need to determine the potential impacts of other halogenated organic compounds on stratospheric ozone and climate. The CFCs, which do not contain an H atom, are not oxidized or photolyzed in the troposphere. These compounds are transported into the stratosphere where they decompose and can lead to chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion. The hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs or HFCs), in particular those proposed as substitutes for CFCs, contain at least one hydrogen atom in the molecule, which confers on these compounds a much greater sensitivity toward oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the troposphere, resulting in much shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CFCs, and consequently lower potential for depleting ozone. The available information is reviewed which relates to the lifetime of these compounds (HCFCs and HFCs) in the troposphere, and up-to-date assessments are reported of the potential relative effects of CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, and halons on stratospheric ozone and global climate (through 'greenhouse' global warming).

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

PubMed

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effect of static and dynamic muscle stretching as part of warm up procedures on knee joint proprioception and strength.

PubMed

Walsh, Gregory S

2017-10-01

The importance of warm up procedures prior to athletic performance is well established. A common component of such procedures is muscle stretching. There is conflicting evidence regarding the effect of static stretching (SS) as part of warm up procedures on knee joint position sense (KJPS) and the effect of dynamic stretching (DS) on KJPS is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of dynamic and static stretching as part warm up procedures on KJPS and knee extension and flexion strength. This study had a randomised cross-over design and ten healthy adults (20±1years) attended 3 visits during which baseline KJPS, at target angles of 20° and 45°, and knee extension and flexion strength tests were followed by 15min of cycling and either a rest period (CON), SS, or DS and repeat KJPS and strength tests. All participants performed all conditions, one condition per visit. There were warm up×stretching type interactions for KJPS at 20° (p=0.024) and 45° (p=0.018), and knee flexion (p=0.002) and extension (p<0.001) strength. The SS and DS improved KJPS but CON condition did not and SS decreased strength. No change in strength was present for DS or CON. Both SS and DS improve KJPS as part of pre-exercise warm up procedures. However, the negative impact of SS on muscle strength limits the utility of SS before athletic performance. If stretching is to be performed as part of a warm up, DS should be favoured over SS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Warming Alters Carbohydrate Degradation Potential in Temperate Forest Soils

DOE PAGES

Pold, Grace; Billings, Andrew F.; Blanchard, Jeff L.; ...

2016-09-02

As Earth's climate warms, soil carbon pools and the microbial communities that process them may change, altering the way in which carbon is recycled in soil. In this study, we used a combination of metagenomics and bacterial cultivation to evaluate the hypothesis that experimentally raising soil temperatures by 5°C for 5, 8, or 20 years increased the potential for temperate forest soil microbial communities to degrade carbohydrates. Warming decreased the proportion of carbohydrate-degrading genes in the organic horizon derived from eukaryotes and increased the fraction of genes in the mineral soil associated with Actinobacteria in all studies. Genes associated withmore » carbohydrate degradation increased in the organic horizon after 5 years of warming but had decreased in the organic horizon after warming the soil continuously for 20 years. However, a greater proportion of the 295 bacteria from 6 phyla (10 classes, 14 orders, and 34 families) isolated from heated plots in the 20-year experiment were able to depolymerize cellulose and xylan than bacterial isolates from control soils. Together, these findings indicate that the enrichment of bacteria capable of degrading carbohydrates could be important for accelerated carbon cycling in a warmer world.« less

Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

2016-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

PubMed

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

Estimating the potential for adaptation of corals to climate warming.

PubMed

Császár, Nikolaus B M; Ralph, Peter J; Frankham, Richard; Berkelmans, Ray; van Oppen, Madeleine J H

2010-03-18

The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium) through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability) as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D) and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2). In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming.

Estimating the Potential for Adaptation of Corals to Climate Warming

PubMed Central

Császár, Nikolaus B. M.; Ralph, Peter J.; Frankham, Richard; Berkelmans, Ray; van Oppen, Madeleine J. H.

2010-01-01

The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium) through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability) as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D) and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2). In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM) fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming. PMID:20305781

Mineral Resources of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area, Mohave County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Floyd; Jachens, Robert C.; Miller, Robert J.; Turner, Robert L.; Knepper, Daniel H.; Pitkin, James A.; Keith, William J.; Mariano, John; Jones, Stephanie L.; Korzeb, Stanley L.

1986-01-01

At the request of the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, approximately 113,500 acres of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area (AZ-020-028/029) were evaluated for mineral resources and mineral resource potential. In this report, the area studied is referred to as the 'wilderness study area' or 'study area'; any reference to the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area refers only to that part of the wilderness study area for which a mineral survey was requested. This study area is located in west-central Arizona. The U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines conducted geological, geochemical, and geophysical surveys to appraise the identified mineral resources (known) and assess the mineral resource potential (undiscovered) of the study area. fieldwork for this report was carried out largely in 1986-1989. There is a 1-million short ton indicated subeconomic resource of clinoptilolite-mordenite zeolite and an additional inferred resource of 2 million short tons near McHeffy Butte, approximately 2 miles west of the study area. A perlite deposit in the southeast corner of the study area contains an inferred subeconomic resource totaling 13 million short tons. An inferred subeconomic resource of gold in 225 short tons of quartz having a grade of 0.01 8 troy ounces per short ton is present at the Cook mine, 0.5 miles west of the study area. The northwestern part of the Warm Springs Wilderness Study Area has high mineral resource potential for gold and silver. The south-central part of the study area has one area of moderate and one area north of this south-central part has low mineral resource potential for gold and silver in and near Warm Springs Canyon; the mineral resource potential for gold is also moderate in three small areas in the southern part and one area in the northeastern part of the study area. The mineral resource potential for zeolite is high for the area surrounding the McHeffy Butte prospect and for one area in the southern part of the study area. Two

Predicting the global warming potential of agro-ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehuger, S.; Gabrielle, B.; Larmanou, E.; Laville, P.; Cellier, P.; Loubet, B.

2007-04-01

Nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane are the main biogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate thus requires a capacity to predict the net exchanges of these gases in an integrated manner, as related to environmental conditions and crop management. Here, we used two year-round data sets from two intensively-monitored cropping systems in northern France to test the ability of the biophysical crop model CERES-EGC to simulate GHG exchanges at the plot-scale. The experiments involved maize and rapeseed crops on a loam and rendzina soils, respectively. The model was subsequently extrapolated to predict CO2 and N2O fluxes over an entire crop rotation. Indirect emissions (IE) arising from the production of agricultural inputs and from cropping operations were also added to the final GWP. One experimental site (involving a wheat-maize-barley rotation on a loamy soil) was a net source of GHG with a GWP of 350 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, of which 75% were due to IE and 25% to direct N2O emissions. The other site (involving an oilseed rape-wheat-barley rotation on a rendzina) was a net sink of GHG for -250 kg CO2-C eq ha-1 yr-1, mainly due to a higher predicted C sequestration potential and C return from crops. Such modelling approach makes it possible to test various agronomic management scenarios, in order to design productive agro-ecosystems with low global warming impact.

Long-Term Warming Alters Carbohydrate Degradation Potential in Temperate Forest Soils.

PubMed

Pold, Grace; Billings, Andrew F; Blanchard, Jeff L; Burkhardt, Daniel B; Frey, Serita D; Melillo, Jerry M; Schnabel, Julia; van Diepen, Linda T A; DeAngelis, Kristen M

2016-11-15

As Earth's climate warms, soil carbon pools and the microbial communities that process them may change, altering the way in which carbon is recycled in soil. In this study, we used a combination of metagenomics and bacterial cultivation to evaluate the hypothesis that experimentally raising soil temperatures by 5°C for 5, 8, or 20 years increased the potential for temperate forest soil microbial communities to degrade carbohydrates. Warming decreased the proportion of carbohydrate-degrading genes in the organic horizon derived from eukaryotes and increased the fraction of genes in the mineral soil associated with Actinobacteria in all studies. Genes associated with carbohydrate degradation increased in the organic horizon after 5 years of warming but had decreased in the organic horizon after warming the soil continuously for 20 years. However, a greater proportion of the 295 bacteria from 6 phyla (10 classes, 14 orders, and 34 families) isolated from heated plots in the 20-year experiment were able to depolymerize cellulose and xylan than bacterial isolates from control soils. Together, these findings indicate that the enrichment of bacteria capable of degrading carbohydrates could be important for accelerated carbon cycling in a warmer world. The massive carbon stocks currently held in soils have been built up over millennia, and while numerous lines of evidence indicate that climate change will accelerate the processing of this carbon, it is unclear whether the genetic repertoire of the microbes responsible for this elevated activity will also change. In this study, we showed that bacteria isolated from plots subject to 20 years of 5°C of warming were more likely to depolymerize the plant polymers xylan and cellulose, but that carbohydrate degradation capacity is not uniformly enriched by warming treatment in the metagenomes of soil microbial communities. This study illustrates the utility of combining culture-dependent and culture-independent surveys of

Long-Term Warming Alters Carbohydrate Degradation Potential in Temperate Forest Soils

PubMed Central

Billings, Andrew F.; Blanchard, Jeff L.; Burkhardt, Daniel B.; Frey, Serita D.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Schnabel, Julia; van Diepen, Linda T. A.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT As Earth's climate warms, soil carbon pools and the microbial communities that process them may change, altering the way in which carbon is recycled in soil. In this study, we used a combination of metagenomics and bacterial cultivation to evaluate the hypothesis that experimentally raising soil temperatures by 5°C for 5, 8, or 20 years increased the potential for temperate forest soil microbial communities to degrade carbohydrates. Warming decreased the proportion of carbohydrate-degrading genes in the organic horizon derived from eukaryotes and increased the fraction of genes in the mineral soil associated with Actinobacteria in all studies. Genes associated with carbohydrate degradation increased in the organic horizon after 5 years of warming but had decreased in the organic horizon after warming the soil continuously for 20 years. However, a greater proportion of the 295 bacteria from 6 phyla (10 classes, 14 orders, and 34 families) isolated from heated plots in the 20-year experiment were able to depolymerize cellulose and xylan than bacterial isolates from control soils. Together, these findings indicate that the enrichment of bacteria capable of degrading carbohydrates could be important for accelerated carbon cycling in a warmer world. IMPORTANCE The massive carbon stocks currently held in soils have been built up over millennia, and while numerous lines of evidence indicate that climate change will accelerate the processing of this carbon, it is unclear whether the genetic repertoire of the microbes responsible for this elevated activity will also change. In this study, we showed that bacteria isolated from plots subject to 20 years of 5°C of warming were more likely to depolymerize the plant polymers xylan and cellulose, but that carbohydrate degradation capacity is not uniformly enriched by warming treatment in the metagenomes of soil microbial communities. This study illustrates the utility of combining culture-dependent and culture

Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

2011-01-01

This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

High Efficiency Low Global Warming Potential Compressor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cogswell, Frederick; Verma, Parmesh

During this project UTRC designed a novel compressor for use with new low Global-Warming-Potential (GWP) refrigerants. Through two design and testing iterations, UTRC advanced the compressor technology from TRL3 to TRL5. The target application was a 5 Tons of Refrigeration (TR) capacity Roof-Top Unit (RTU), although this technology may be applied to other low-capacity systems such as residential. The prototype unit met all design goals at the ARI-A rating condition and requires high efficiency motor to meet high performance targets at the ARI-B condition. This technology may be used in high efficiency units and with seasonal energy efficiency rating (SEER)more » exceeding 20. A preliminary cost analysis estimated that there would be less than $25/kbtuh cost impact to the customer.« less

A multi-disciplinary investigation of Irish warm springs and their potential for geothermal energy provision.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blake, Sarah; Jones, Alan G.; Henry, Tiernan

2015-04-01

Irish warm springs are one of a set of several target types that are being evaluated for their geothermal energy potential during the course of the island-wide assessment of the geothermal energy potential of Ireland under the IRETHERM project (www.iretherm.ie). Forty-two warm springs and warm shallow groundwater occurrences have been recorded in Ireland; water temperatures in the springs (approx. 12-25 °C) are elevated with respect to average Irish groundwater temperatures (10-11 °C). This study focuses on warm springs in east-central Ireland found in the Carboniferous limestone of the Dublin Basin. A combination of geophysical methods (controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) and audio-magnetotellurics (AMT)) and hydrochemical analyses (including time-lapse temperature and electrical conductivity measurements) have been utilised at several of the springs to determine the source of the heated waters at depth and the nature of the geological structures that deliver the warm waters to the surface. Using the example of St. Gorman's Well, Co. Meath, we show how the combination of these different methods of investigation and the interpretation of these various data sets enables us to better understand the physical and chemical variability of the spring through time. This will provide the basis for an assessment of the source of these thermal waters as a potential geothermal energy reservoir and will allow for more precise characterisation of the groundwater resource. We present subsurface models derived from new geophysical data collected at St. Gorman's Well in 2013. This high-resolution AMT survey consisted of a grid of 40 soundings recorded at approximately 200 m intervals centred on the spring. The aim of the survey was to image directly any (electrically conductive) fluid conduit systems that may be associated with the springs and to provide an understanding of the observed association of the Irish warm springs with major structural lineaments, such as the NE

Communicating the Science of Global Warming — the Role of Astronomers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Jeffrey

2018-06-01

Global Warming is one of the most important and issues of our times, yet it is widely misunderstood among the general public (and politicians!). The American Astronomical Society has already joined many other scientific organizations in advocating for action on global warming (by supporting the AGU statement on global warming), but we as astronomers can do much more. The high public profile of astronomy gives us a unique platform — and credibility as scientists — for doing our part to educate the public about the underlying science of global warming. And while astronomers are not climate scientists, we use the same basic physics, and many aspects of global warming science come directly from astronomy, including the ways in which we measure the heat-absorbing potential of carbon dioxide and the hard evidence of greenhouse warming provided by studies of Venus. In this session, I will briefly introduce a few methods for communicating about global warming that I believe you will find effective in your own education efforts.

Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita

2017-04-01

negligible changes in Topt, Tmin and Q10 for respiration. When these physiological changes were scaled with soil temperature data to estimate real-time variation in situ during three years, the warm-adaptation resulted in elevated microbial CUEs during summer temperatures in warm-adapted communities and reduced microbial CUEs during winter temperatures. By comparing simulated microbial CUEs in cold-adapted communities exposed to warmed conditions to microbial CUEs in the warm-adapted communities exposed to those temperatures, we could demonstrate that the shifts towards warm-adapted microbial communities had selected for elevated microbial CUEs for the full range of in situ soil temperatures during three years. Our results suggest that microbial adaptation to warming will enhance microbial CUEs, shifting their balance of C use from respiration to biomass production. If our estimates scale to ecosystem level, this would imply that warm-adapted microbial communities will ultimately have the potential to store more C in soil than their cold-adapted counter parts could when exposed to warmer temperatures.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

Why does tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) increase with warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seeley, Jacob T.; Romps, David M.

2015-12-01

Recent work has produced a theory for tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) that highlights the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling of the atmosphere's saturation deficit as a driver of increases in CAPE with warming. Here we test this so-called "zero-buoyancy" theory for CAPE by modulating the saturation deficit of cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium in two ways: changing the sea surface temperature (SST) and changing the environmental relative humidity (RH). For earthlike and warmer SSTs, undilute parcel buoyancy in the lower troposphere is insensitive to increasing SST because of a countervailing CC scaling that balances the increase in the saturation deficit; however, buoyancy increases dramatically with SST in the upper troposphere. Conversely, in the RH experiment, undilute buoyancy throughout the troposphere increases monotonically with decreasing RH. We show that the zero-buoyancy theory successfully predicts these contrasting behaviors, building confidence that it describes the fundamental physics of CAPE and its response to warming.

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

PubMed Central

Gunderson, Alex R.; Stillman, Jonathon H.

2015-01-01

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the ‘Bogert effect’. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. PMID:25994676

An Alternative View of the Climate Warming Mitigation Potential of U.S. Temperate Forests

EPA Science Inventory

Many U.S. federal and non-governmental agencies promote forestation as a means to mitigate climate warming because of the carbon sequestration potential of forests. This biogeochemical-oriented carbon sequestration policy is somewhat inconsistent with a decade or more of researc...

Enhanced decomposition of stable soil organic carbon and microbial catabolic potentials by long-term field warming

DOE PAGES

Feng, Wenting; Liang, Junyi; Hale, Lauren E.; ...

2017-06-09

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon–climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long-term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming.more » Taking advantage of a 12-year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3 years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO 2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long-term warming

Enhanced decomposition of stable soil organic carbon and microbial catabolic potentials by long-term field warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Wenting; Liang, Junyi; Hale, Lauren E.

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon–climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long-term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming.more » Taking advantage of a 12-year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3 years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO 2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long-term warming

Enhanced decomposition of stable soil organic carbon and microbial catabolic potentials by long-term field warming.

PubMed

Feng, Wenting; Liang, Junyi; Hale, Lauren E; Jung, Chang Gyo; Chen, Ji; Zhou, Jizhong; Xu, Minggang; Yuan, Mengting; Wu, Liyou; Bracho, Rosvel; Pegoraro, Elaine; Schuur, Edward A G; Luo, Yiqi

2017-11-01

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon-climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long-term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming. Taking advantage of a 12-year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3 years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO 2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C-degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long-term warming accelerates the

The potential of land management to decrease global warming from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Hausfather, Z.; Jones, A. D.; Silver, W. L.

2016-12-01

Recent evidence suggests that negative emissions (i.e. sequestration) is critical to slow climate change (IPCC, 2013; Gasser et al, 2015). Agricultural (crop and grazing) lands have the potential to act as a significant carbon sink. These ecosystems cover a significant proportion of the global land surface, and are largely degraded with regard to soil carbon due to previous management practices (Bai et al, 2008). However, few studies have examined the required scale of land management interventions that would be required to make a significant contribution to a portfolio of efforts aimed at limiting anthropogenic influences on global mean temperature. To address this, we modelled the quantitative effect of a range of soil carbon sequestration rates on global temperature to 2100. Results showed that by assuming a baseline emissions scenario outlined in RCP 2.6, the sequestration of an additional 0.7 Pg C per year through improved agricultural land management practices would produce a reduction of 0.1 degrees C from predicted global temperatures by the year 2100. We also compiled previous estimates of global carbon sequestration potential of agricultural soils to compare with our theoretical prediction to determine whether carbon sequestration through existing land management practices has potential to significantly reduce global temperatures. Assuming long-term soil carbon uptake, the combined potential of agricultural land management-based mitigation approaches exceeded 0.25 degrees C warming reduction by the year 2100. However, results were highly sensitive to potential carbon saturation, defined as the maximum threshold for carbon storage in soil. Our results suggest that current land management technologies and available land area exist and could make a measureable impact on warming reduction. Results also highlighted potential carbon saturation as a key gap in knowledge.

Photoperiod cues and patterns of genetic variation limit phenological responses to climate change in warm parts of species' range: Modeling diameter-growth cessation in coast Douglas-fir.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; St Clair, J Bradley

2017-08-01

The phenology of diameter-growth cessation in trees will likely play a key role in mediating species and ecosystem responses to climate change. A common expectation is that warming will delay cessation, but the environmental and genetic influences on this process are poorly understood. We modeled the effects of temperature, photoperiod, and seed-source climate on diameter-growth-cessation timing in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree) using high-frequency growth measurements across broad environmental gradients for a range of genotypes from different seed sources. Our model suggests that cool temperatures or short photoperiods can induce cessation in autumn. At cool locations (high latitude and elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by low temperatures in early autumn (under relatively long photoperiods), so warming will likely delay cessation and extend the growing season. But at warm locations (low latitude or elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by short photoperiods later in autumn, so warming will likely lead to only slight extensions of the growing season, reflecting photoperiod limitations on phenological shifts. Trees from seed sources experiencing frequent frosts in autumn or early winter tended to cease growth earlier in the autumn, potentially as an adaptation to avoid frost. Thus, gene flow into populations in warm locations with little frost will likely have limited potential to delay mean cessation dates because these populations already cease growth relatively late. In addition, data from an abnormal heat wave suggested that very high temperatures during long photoperiods in early summer might also induce cessation. Climate change could make these conditions more common in warm locations, leading to much earlier cessation. Thus, photoperiod cues, patterns of genetic variation, and summer heat waves could limit the capacity of coast Douglas-fir to extend its growing season in response to climate

A systematic examination of preoperative surgery warm-up routines.

PubMed

Pike, T W; Pathak, S; Mushtaq, F; Wilkie, R M; Mon-Williams, M; Lodge, J P A

2017-05-01

Recent evidence indicates that a preoperative warm-up is a potentially useful tool in facilitating performance. But what factors drive such improvements and how should a warm-up be implemented? In order to address these issues, we adopted a two-pronged approach: (1) we conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify existing studies utilising preoperative simulation techniques; (2) we performed task analysis to identify the constituent parts of effective warm-ups. We identified five randomised control trials, four randomised cross-over trials and four case series. The majority of these studies reviewed surgical performance following preoperative simulation relative to performance without simulation. Four studies reported outcome measures in real patients and the remainder reported simulated outcome measures. All but one of the studies found that preoperative simulation improves operative outcomes-but this improvement was not found across all measured parameters. While the reviewed studies had a number of methodological issues, the global data indicate that preoperative simulation has substantial potential to improve surgical performance. Analysis of the task characteristics of successful interventions indicated that the majority of these studies employed warm-ups that focused on the visual motor elements of surgery. However, there was no theoretical or empirical basis to inform the design of the intervention in any of these studies. There is an urgent need for a more rigorous approach to the development of "warm-up" routines if the potential value of preoperative simulation is to be understood and realised. We propose that such interventions need to be grounded in theory and empirical evidence on human motor performance.

Warming-Induced Changes to the Molecular Composition of Soil Organic Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Simpson, M. J.; Simpson, A. J.; Wilson, K. P.; Williams, D.

2007-12-01

Soil organic matter (SOM) contains two times more carbon than the atmosphere and the potential changes to SOM quantity and quality with global warming are a major concern. It is commonly believed that global warming will accelerate the decomposition of labile SOM compounds while refractory SOM constituents will remain stable. However, experimental evidence of molecular-level changes to SOM composition with global warming is currently lacking. Here we employ SOM biomarkers and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to study SOM composition and degradation in a soil warming experiment in southern Ontario, Canada. The soil warming experiment consisted of a control and a treatment plot in a mixed forest that had a temperature difference of about 5 degrees C for 14 months. Before soil warming the control and treatment plots had the same organic carbon (OC) content and SOM composition. Soil warming significantly increased soil OC content and the abundance of cutin-derived carbon originating from leaf tissues and decreased carbohydrates that are regarded as easily degradable. Lignin components, which are believed to be part of the stable and slowly-cycling SOM, were observed to be in an advanced stage of degradation. This observation is corroborated by increases in fungal biomass in the warmed soil because fungi are considered the primary decomposer of lignin in the soil environment. An NMR study of SOM in the warmed and control plots indicates that alkyl carbon, mainly originating from plant cuticles in the soil, increased in the warmed soil while O-alkyl carbon, primarily occurring in carbohydrates, decreased. Aromatic and phenolic carbon regions, which include the main structures found in lignin, decreased in the warmed soil. These data collectively suggest that there is a great potential for lignin degradation with soil warming, and that the refractory (aromatic) soil carbon storage may be reduced as a result of increased fungal growth in a warmer climate.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Decomposition of recalcitrant carbon under experimental warming in boreal forest

PubMed Central

Allison, Steven D.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

2017-01-01

Over the long term, soil carbon (C) storage is partly determined by decomposition rate of carbon that is slow to decompose (i.e., recalcitrant C). According to thermodynamic theory, decomposition rates of recalcitrant C might differ from those of non-recalcitrant C in their sensitivities to global warming. We decomposed leaf litter in a warming experiment in Alaskan boreal forest, and measured mass loss of recalcitrant C (lignin) vs. non-recalcitrant C (cellulose, hemicellulose, and sugars) throughout 16 months. We found that these C fractions responded differently to warming. Specifically, after one year of decomposition, the ratio of recalcitrant C to non-recalcitrant C remaining in litter declined in the warmed plots compared to control. Consistent with this pattern, potential activities of enzymes targeting recalcitrant C increased with warming, relative to those targeting non-recalcitrant C. Even so, mass loss of individual C fractions showed that non-recalcitrant C is preferentially decomposed under control conditions whereas recalcitrant C losses remain unchanged between control and warmed plots. Moreover, overall mass loss was greater under control conditions. Our results imply that direct warming effects, as well as indirect warming effects (e.g. drying), may serve to maintain decomposition rates of recalcitrant C compared to non-recalcitrant C despite negative effects on overall decomposition. PMID:28622366

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.

PubMed

Gunderson, Alex R; Stillman, Jonathon H

2015-06-07

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Potential effects on health of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haines, A.; Parry, M.

1993-12-01

Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important tomore » monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.« less

Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abdelaziz, Omar; Shrestha, Som S; Shen, Bo

The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are consideredmore » as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system

Do mitigation strategies reduce global warming potential in the northern U.S. Corn Belt?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture is both an anthropogenic source of CO2, CH4, and N2O, and a sink for CO2 and CH4. Management can impact agriculture's net global warming potential (GWP) by changing source and/or sink. This study compared GWP among three crop management systems: business as usual (BAU), optimum greenhous...

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

DOE PAGES

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; ...

2017-02-17

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable.We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performancemore » in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. Furthermore, the maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.« less

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants.

PubMed

McLinden, Mark O; Brown, J Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; Kazakov, Andrei F; Domanski, Piotr A

2017-02-17

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; Kazakov, Andrei F.; Domanski, Piotr A.

2017-02-01

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

PubMed Central

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo; Kazakov, Andrei F.; Domanski, Piotr A.

2017-01-01

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable. We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performance in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. The maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range. PMID:28211518

Limited options for low-global-warming-potential refrigerants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McLinden, Mark O.; Brown, J. Steven; Brignoli, Riccardo

Hydrofluorocarbons, currently used as refrigerants in air-conditioning systems, are potent greenhouse gases, and their contribution to climate change is projected to increase. Future use of the hydrofluorocarbons will be phased down and, thus replacement fluids must be found. Here we show that only a few pure fluids possess the combination of chemical, environmental, thermodynamic, and safety properties necessary for a refrigerant and that these fluids are at least slightly flammable.We search for replacements by applying screening criteria to a comprehensive chemical database. For the fluids passing the thermodynamic and environmental screens (critical temperature and global warming potential), we simulate performancemore » in small air-conditioning systems, including optimization of the heat exchangers. We show that the efficiency-versus-capacity trade-off that exists in an ideal analysis disappears when a more realistic system is considered. Furthermore, the maximum efficiency occurs at a relatively high volumetric refrigeration capacity, but there are few fluids in this range.« less

Global warming and ocean stratification: A potential result of large extraterrestrial impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Manoj; von Glasow, Roland; Smith, Robin S.; Paxton, Charles G. M.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Loptson, Claire; Markwick, Paul

2017-04-01

The prevailing paradigm for the climatic effects of large asteroid or comet impacts is a reduction in sunlight and significant short-term cooling caused by atmospheric aerosol loading. Here we show, using global climate model experiments, that the large increases in stratospheric water vapor that can occur upon impact with the ocean cause radiative forcings of over +20 W m-2 in the case of 10 km sized bolides. The result of such a positive forcing is rapid climatic warming, increased upper ocean stratification, and potentially disruption of upper ocean ecosystems. Since two thirds of the world's surface is ocean, we suggest that some bolide impacts may actually warm climate overall. For impacts producing both stratospheric water vapor and aerosol loading, radiative forcing by water vapor can reduce or even cancel out aerosol-induced cooling, potentially causing 1-2 decades of increased temperatures in both the upper ocean and on the land surface. Such a response, which depends on the ratio of aerosol to water vapor radiative forcing, is distinct from many previous scenarios for the climatic effects of large bolide impacts, which mostly account for cooling from aerosol loading. Finally, we discuss how water vapor forcing from bolide impacts may have contributed to two well-known phenomena: extinction across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary and the deglaciation of the Neoproterozoic snowball Earth.

C balance, carbon dioxide emissions and global warming potentials in LCA-modelling of waste management systems.

PubMed

Christensen, Thomas H; Gentil, Emmanuel; Boldrin, Alessio; Larsen, Anna W; Weidema, Bo P; Hauschild, Michael

2009-11-01

Global warming potential (GWP) is an important impact category in life-cycle-assessment modelling of waste management systems. However, accounting of biogenic CO(2) emissions and sequestered biogenic carbon in landfills and in soils, amended with compost, is carried out in different ways in reported studies. A simplified model of carbon flows is presented for the waste management system and the surrounding industries, represented by the pulp and paper manufacturing industry, the forestry industry and the energy industry. The model calculated the load of C to the atmosphere, under ideal conditions, for 14 different waste management scenarios under a range of system boundary conditions and a constant consumption of C-product (here assumed to be paper) and energy production within the combined system. Five sets of criteria for assigning GWP indices to waste management systems were applied to the same 14 scenarios and tested for their ability to rank the waste management alternatives reflecting the resulting CO(2) load to the atmosphere. Two complete criteria sets were identified yielding fully consistent results; one set considers biogenic CO(2) as neutral, the other one did not. The results showed that criteria for assigning global warming contributions are partly linked to the system boundary conditions. While the boundary to the paper industry and the energy industry usually is specified in LCA studies, the boundary to the forestry industry and the interaction between forestry and the energy industry should also be specified and accounted for.

Forage plants of an Arctic-nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds, potentially disrupting migration phenology.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Jochems, Femke; van der Graaf, Alexandra J; Andersson, Mattias; Limpens, Juul; Nolet, Bart A

2017-04-01

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen-rich forage plants, following a "green wave" of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open-top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0-1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop-over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen-rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1-2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

A historical perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management.

PubMed

Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick H; Christensen, Per

2013-09-01

The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP(100)), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies such as incineration, recycling and composting has been used in order to perform the analysis. The LCA results show a continuous improvement in environmental performance of MSWM from 1970 to 2010 mainly due to the changes in treatment options, improved efficiency of various treatment technologies and increasing focus on recycling, resulting in a shift from net emission of 618 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) to net saving of 670 kg CO(2)-eq.tonne(-1) of MSWM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential vulnerability of southeast Alaskan wetland soil carbon stocks to climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellman, J.; D'Amore, D. V.; Hood, E. W.

2015-12-01

Carbon cycling along the high latitude coastal margins of Alaska is poorly understood relative to boreal and arctic ecosystems. The perhumid coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) of southeast Alaska has some of the densest carbon stocks (>300 Mg C ha-1) in the world but the fate of these stocks with continued warming will balance on the poorly constrained rates of carbon accumulation and loss. We quantified the rate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and carbon dioxide (CO2) production from four different wetland types (rich fen, poor fen, forested wetland and cedar wetland) using controlled laboratory incubations of surface (10 cm) and subsurface (25 cm) soils incubated at 8 ºC and 15 ºC for 37 weeks. This design allowed us to determine the potential vulnerability of wetland soil carbon stocks to climate warming and partition organic matter mineralization into DOC and CO2 fluxes and its controls (e.g., wetland type and temperature). Furthermore, we used fluorescence characterization of DOC and laboratory bioassays to assess how climate warming may impact the quality and bioavailability of DOC delivered to fluvial systems. Soil depth and temperature strongly influenced carbon loss in all four wetland types with the greatest CO2 fluxes observed in the rich fen and greatest DOC fluxes observed in the poor fen. Of the fluxes, CO2 was the most sensitive to incubation temperature but DOC showed more variation with wetland type. Fluxes of DOC and CO2 were positively correlated only during the last few months of the incubation suggesting strong biotic control of DOC production developed as soil organic matter decomposition progressed. Moreover, bioavailable DOC and protein-like fluorescence were greatest in the initial soil extractions but dramatically decreased over the length of the incubations. Our findings suggest that soil organic matter decomposition will increase as the PCTR continues to warm, but this response will also will vary with wetland type.

Workshop on early Mars: How warm and how wet, part 2?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squyres, S. (Editor); Kasting, J. (Editor)

1993-01-01

In 1992 the MSATT program conducted a workshop on modeling of the Martian climate. At that workshop it became clear that a serious problem had arisen concerning the early climate of Mars. Based on the evidence for smallscale fluvial activity, the view had been widely held that early in its history Mars had a climate that was much warmer and wetter than today's. However, most plausible recent climate models have fallen far short of the warm temperatures often inferred from the geologic evidence. Moreover, recent geophysical work has suggested that early geothermal warming may also have played a significant role in allowing fluvial activity. In order to address the issue of just how warm and how wet early Mars was, a workshop was convened in July of 1993, in Breckenridge, Colorado. The results of the workshop are reported here.

Consistency of the tachyon warm inflationary universe models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiao-Min; Zhu, Jian-Yang, E-mail: zhangxm@mail.bnu.edu.cn, E-mail: zhujy@bnu.edu.cn

2014-02-01

This study concerns the consistency of the tachyon warm inflationary models. A linear stability analysis is performed to find the slow-roll conditions, characterized by the potential slow-roll (PSR) parameters, for the existence of a tachyon warm inflationary attractor in the system. The PSR parameters in the tachyon warm inflationary models are redefined. Two cases, an exponential potential and an inverse power-law potential, are studied, when the dissipative coefficient Γ = Γ{sub 0} and Γ = Γ(φ), respectively. A crucial condition is obtained for a tachyon warm inflationary model characterized by the Hubble slow-roll (HSR) parameter ε{sub H}, and the conditionmore » is extendable to some other inflationary models as well. A proper number of e-folds is obtained in both cases of the tachyon warm inflation, in contrast to existing works. It is also found that a constant dissipative coefficient (Γ = Γ{sub 0}) is usually not a suitable assumption for a warm inflationary model.« less

Warming reduces carbon losses from grassland exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L; Williams, David G; Dijkstra, Feike A; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A; Lecain, Daniel R

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate - carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate - carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

PubMed Central

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L.; Williams, David G.; Dijkstra, Feike A.; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil. PMID:23977180

The effects of household management practices on the global warming potential of urban lawns.

PubMed

Gu, Chuanhui; Crane, John; Hornberger, George; Carrico, Amanda

2015-03-15

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are an important component of the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget for urban turfgrasses. A biogeochemical model DNDC successfully captured the magnitudes and patterns of N2O emissions observed at an urban turfgrass system at the Richland Creek Watershed in Nashville, TN. The model was then used to study the long-term (i.e. 75 years) impacts of lawn management practice (LMP) on soil organic carbon sequestration rate (dSOC), soil N2O emissions, and net Global Warming Potentials (net GWPs). The model simulated N2O emissions and net GWP from the three management intensity levels over 75 years ranged from 0.75 to 3.57 kg N ha(-1)yr(-1) and 697 to 2443 kg CO2-eq ha(-1)yr(-1), respectively, which suggested that turfgrasses act as a net carbon emitter. Reduction of fertilization is most effective to mitigate the global warming potentials of turfgrasses. Compared to the baseline scenario, halving fertilization rate and clipping recycle as an alternative to synthetic fertilizer can reduce net GWPs by 17% and 12%, respectively. In addition, reducing irrigation and mowing are also effective in lowering net GWPs. The minimum-maintenance LMP without irrigation and fertilization can reduce annual N2O emissions and net GWPs by approximately 53% and 70%, respectively, with the price of gradual depletion of soil organic carbon, when compared to the intensive-maintenance LMP. A lawn age-dependent best management practice is recommended: a high dose fertilizer input at the initial stage of lawn establishment to enhance SOC sequestration, followed by decreasing fertilization rate when the lawn ages to minimize N2O emissions. A minimum-maintained LMP with clipping recycling, and minimum irrigation and mowing, is recommended to mitigate global warming effects from urban turfgrass systems. Among all practices, clipping recycle may be a relatively malleable behavior and, therefore, a good target for interventions seeking to reduce the environmental impacts of lawn

Atmospheric chemistry of short-chain haloolefins: photochemical ozone creation potentials (POCPs), global warming potentials (GWPs), and ozone depletion potentials (ODPs).

PubMed

Wallington, T J; Sulbaek Andersen, M P; Nielsen, O J

2015-06-01

Short-chain haloolefins are being introduced as replacements for saturated halocarbons. The unifying chemical feature of haloolefins is the presence of a CC double bond which causes the atmospheric lifetimes to be significantly shorter than for the analogous saturated compounds. We discuss the atmospheric lifetimes, photochemical ozone creation potentials (POCPs), global warming potentials (GWPs), and ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) of haloolefins. The commercially relevant short-chain haloolefins CF3CFCH2 (1234yf), trans-CF3CHCHF (1234ze(Z)), CF3CFCF2 (1216), cis-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(Z)), and trans-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(E)) have short atmospheric lifetimes (days to weeks), negligible POCPs, negligible GWPs, and ODPs which do not differ materially from zero. In the concentrations expected in the environment their atmospheric degradation products will have a negligible impact on ecosystems. CF3CFCH2 (1234yf), trans-CF3CHCHF (1234ze(Z)), CF3CFCF2 (1216), cis-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(Z)), and trans-CF3CHCHCl (1233zd(E)) are environmentally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage.

PubMed

Meineke, Emily; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2016-10-12

A substantial amount of global carbon is stored in mature trees. However, no experiments to date test how warming affects mature tree carbon storage. Using a unique, citywide, factorial experiment, we investigated how warming and insect herbivory affected physiological function and carbon sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem service assessments that do not consider urban conditions may overestimate urban tree carbon storage. Because urban and global warming are becoming more intense, our results suggest that urban trees will sequester even less carbon in the future. © 2016 The Author(s).

Migration potential of tundra plant species in a warming Arctic: Responses of southern ecotypes of three species to experimental warming in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjorkman, Anne; Henry, Greg; Vellend, Mark

2013-04-01

Climatic changes due to anthropogenic activity are predicted to have a profound effect on the world's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The response of natural communities to climate change will depend primarily on two factors: 1) the ability of species to adapt quickly to changing temperatures and precipitation trends, and 2) the ability of species and populations from southern latitudes to migrate northward and establish in new environments. The assumption is often made that species and populations will track their optimal climate northward as the earth warms, but this assumption ignores a host of other potentially important factors, including the lack of adaptation to photoperiod, soil moisture, and biotic interactions at higher latitudes. In this study, we aim to better understand the ability of southern populations to establish and grow at northern latitudes under warmer temperatures. We collected seeds or ramets of three Arctic plant species (Papaver radicatum, Oxyria digyna, and Arctagrostis latifolia) from Alexandra Fiord on Ellesmere Island, Canada and from southern populations at Cornwallis Island, Canada, Barrow, Alaska, and Latnjajaure, Sweden. These seeds were planted into experimentally warmed and control plots at Alexandra Fiord in 2011. We have tracked their survival, phenology, and growth over two growing seasons. Here, we will present the preliminary results of these experiments. In particular, we will discuss whether individuals originating from southern latitudes exhibit higher growth rates in warm plots than control plots, and whether southern populations survive and grow as well as or better than individuals from Alexandra Fiord in the warmed plots. In both cases, a positive response would indicate that a warming climate may facilitate a migration northward of more southerly species or populations, and that the lack of adaptation to local conditions (soil chemistry, microhabitat, etc.) will not limit this migration. Alternately, a

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current quantification of Climate Warming Mitigation Potential (CWMP) of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site-level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM...

Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity influenced by irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and nitrogen fertilization

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little information exists about sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs) affected by management practices to account for net emissions from agroecosystems. We evaluated the effects of irrigation, tillage, crop rotation, and N fertilization on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas...

Mixing processes following the final stratospheric warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hess, Peter G.

1991-01-01

An investigation is made of the dynamics responsible for the mixing and dissolution of the polar vortex during the final stratospheric warmings. The dynamics and transport during a Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric warming are simulated via a GCM and an associated offline N2O transport model. The results are compared with those obtained from LIMS data for the final warming of 1979, with emphasis on the potential vorticity evolution in the two datasets, the modeled N2O evolution, and the observed O3 evolution. Following each warming, the remnants of the originally intact vortex are found to gradually homogenize with the atmosphere at large. Two processes leading to this homogenization are identified following the final warmings, namely, the potential vorticity field becomes decorrelated from that of the chemical tracer, and the vortex remnants begin to tilt dramatically in a vertical direction.

Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential.

PubMed

Betowski, Don; Bevington, Charles; Allison, Thomas C

2016-01-19

Halogenated chemical substances are used in a broad array of applications, and new chemical substances are continually being developed and introduced into commerce. While recent research has considerably increased our understanding of the global warming potentials (GWPs) of multiple individual chemical substances, this research inevitably lags behind the development of new chemical substances. There are currently over 200 substances known to have high GWP. Evaluation of schemes to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) based on computational chemistry are useful where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study assesses the reliability of values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical substances against the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models, and reasonable agreement with reported values is found. Significant improvement is obtained through scaling of both vibrational frequencies and intensities. The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed RE values.

Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

2014-12-01

A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

G-warm inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, Ramón

2017-05-01

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R<1+3gHdot phi, and the strong regime in which 1warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

"Evolution Canyon," a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life.

PubMed

Nevo, Eviatar

2012-02-21

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the "Evolution Canyon" (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, "African" south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested "European" north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200-800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet.

Observational constraints on monomial warm inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Visinelli, Luca, E-mail: Luca.Visinelli@studio.unibo.it

Warm inflation is, as of today, one of the best motivated mechanisms for explaining an early inflationary period. In this paper, we derive and analyze the current bounds on warm inflation with a monomial potential U ∝ φ {sup p} , using the constraints from the PLANCK mission. In particular, we discuss the parameter space of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r and the potential coupling λ of the monomial warm inflation in terms of the number of e-folds. We obtain that the theoretical tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10{sup −8} is much smaller than the current observational constrain r ∼< 0.12, despitemore » a relatively large value of the field excursion Δ φ ∼ 0.1 M {sub Pl}. Warm inflation thus eludes the Lyth bound set on the tensor-to-scalar ratio by the field excursion.« less

Long-term no-till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long-term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however,...

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007). Part 2; Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, zhuo; Montgomery M. T.; Dunkerton, T. J.

2010-01-01

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis

Warm natural inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

2012-04-01

In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, I. I.

2016-02-01

Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall `worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can `over-powers' the `better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, I. I.

2015-12-01

Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by ~ 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall 'worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can 'over-powers' the 'better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

Diversity in thermal affinity among key piscivores buffers impacts of ocean warming on predator-prey interactions.

PubMed

Selden, Rebecca L; Batt, Ryan D; Saba, Vincent S; Pinsky, Malin L

2018-01-01

Asymmetries in responses to climate change have the potential to alter important predator-prey interactions, in part by altering the location and size of spatial refugia for prey. We evaluated the effect of ocean warming on interactions between four important piscivores and four of their prey in the U.S. Northeast Shelf by examining species overlap under historical conditions (1968-2014) and with a doubling in CO 2 . Because both predator and prey shift their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions, the net impact of warming or cooling on predator-prey interactions was not determined a priori from the range extent of either predator or prey alone. For Atlantic cod, an historically dominant piscivore in the region, we found that both historical and future warming led to a decline in the proportion of prey species' range it occupied and caused a potential reduction in its ability to exert top-down control on these prey. In contrast, the potential for overlap of spiny dogfish with prey species was enhanced by warming, expanding their importance as predators in this system. In sum, the decline in the ecological role for cod that began with overfishing in this ecosystem will likely be exacerbated by warming, but this loss may be counteracted by the rise in dominance of other piscivores with contrasting thermal preferences. Functional diversity in thermal affinity within the piscivore guild may therefore buffer against the impact of warming on marine ecosystems, suggesting a novel mechanism by which diversity confers resilience. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers.

PubMed

Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick

2013-12-05

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet quadrupled over the past two decades, contributing a quarter of the observed global sea-level rise. Increased submarine melting is thought to have triggered the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers, which is partly responsible for the ice loss. However, the chain of events and physical processes remain elusive. Recent evidence suggests that an anomalous inflow of subtropical waters driven by atmospheric changes, multidecadal natural ocean variability and a long-term increase in the North Atlantic's upper ocean heat content since the 1950s all contributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic. This led, in conjunction with increased runoff, to enhanced submarine glacier melting. Future climate projections raise the potential for continued increases in warming and ice-mass loss, with implications for sea level and climate.

Cryoinsulation Material Development to Mitigate Obsolescence Risk for Global Warming Potential Foams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Protz, Alison; Bruyns, Roland; Nettles, Mindy

2015-01-01

Cryoinsulation foams currently being qualified for the Space Launch System (SLS) core stage are nonozone- depleting substances (ODP) and are compliant with current environmental regulations. However, these materials contain the blowing agent HFC-245fa, a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC), which is a Global Warming Potential (GWP) substance. In August 2014, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed a policy change to reduce or eliminate certain HFCs, including HFC-245fa, in end-use categories including foam blowing agents beginning in 2017. The policy proposes a limited exception to allow continued use of HFC and HFC-blend foam blowing agents for military or space- and aeronautics-related applications, including rigid polyurethane spray foams, but only until 2022.

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

PubMed Central

Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

Warming will alter water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggs, William Ward

Drastic changes in water resources in all regions of the United States will be the most severe effect of global warming, according to a study reported January 16 at the meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco. However, said the scientists on the AAAS panel on climate and U.S. water resources, strong governmental involvement can greatly reduce the water supply problems climate change will bring.The natural variability of present and future climate was the starting point for the AAAS study. The panel pointed out that it is difficult to identify the direction of potential change for many of the possible consequences of the greenhouse effect, partly because recent history provides little evidence of strong responses to such changes.

Effects of Different Post-Activation Potentiation Warm-Ups on Repeated Sprint Ability in Soccer Players from Different Competitive Levels.

PubMed

Sanchez-Sanchez, Javier; Rodriguez, Alejandro; Petisco, Cristina; Ramirez-Campillo, Rodrigo; Martínez, Cristian; Nakamura, Fábio Y

2018-03-01

This study aimed to compare the effects of a traditional warm-up with two post-activation potentiation (PAP) warm-up strategies on the repeated sprint ability (RSA) of soccer players from national (NL) and regional (RL) competitive levels. Sixteen young players (NL, n = 8, age = 20.7 ± 1.4 y, body mass = 68.5 ± 7.0 kg, body height = 177.4 ± 5.2 cm; RL, n = 8, age = 20.8 ± 1.0 y, body mass = 68.7 ± 4.0 kg, body height = 176.6 ± 5.6 cm) were recruited to complete a traditional warm-up (CONTROL), a PAP warm-up incorporating squats with a load (~60% 1RM) that allowed a high speed (1 m/s) of movement and a high number of repetitions (PAP-1), and a PAP warm-up with a load (~90% 1RM) that allowed a moderate speed (0.5 m/s) of movement and a reduced number of repetitions (PAP-0.5). A RSA test (six 20-m sprints with 20 s of recovery) was performed 5 min after the PAP warm-up to assess the effects of the different protocols on the fastest sprint (RSAb) and the mean time of all sprints (RSAm). A meaningful improvement of RSA performance was observed with PAP-0.5, attaining a large effect on NL (RSAb, ES = -1.5; RSAm, ES = -1.3) and only a small effect on RL athletes (RSAb and RSAm, ES = -0.2). Moreover, when each RSA sprint performance was compared between NL and RL players, after PAP-0.5 greater performance for all sprints was observed in the NL players. Therefore, adding a heavy strength-based conditioning exercise during the warm-up prior to a RSA test may induce significant performance improvements in NL, but only small effects in RL players.

Effects of Different Post-Activation Potentiation Warm-Ups on Repeated Sprint Ability in Soccer Players from Different Competitive Levels

PubMed Central

Sanchez-Sanchez, Javier; Rodriguez, Alejandro; Petisco, Cristina; Ramirez-Campillo, Rodrigo; Martínez, Cristian; Nakamura, Fábio Y.

2018-01-01

Abstract This study aimed to compare the effects of a traditional warm-up with two post-activation potentiation (PAP) warm-up strategies on the repeated sprint ability (RSA) of soccer players from national (NL) and regional (RL) competitive levels. Sixteen young players (NL, n = 8, age = 20.7 ± 1.4 y, body mass = 68.5 ± 7.0 kg, body height = 177.4 ± 5.2 cm; RL, n = 8, age = 20.8 ± 1.0 y, body mass = 68.7 ± 4.0 kg, body height = 176.6 ± 5.6 cm) were recruited to complete a traditional warm-up (CONTROL), a PAP warm-up incorporating squats with a load (~60% 1RM) that allowed a high speed (1 m/s) of movement and a high number of repetitions (PAP-1), and a PAP warm-up with a load (~90% 1RM) that allowed a moderate speed (0.5 m/s) of movement and a reduced number of repetitions (PAP-0.5). A RSA test (six 20-m sprints with 20 s of recovery) was performed 5 min after the PAP warm-up to assess the effects of the different protocols on the fastest sprint (RSAb) and the mean time of all sprints (RSAm). A meaningful improvement of RSA performance was observed with PAP-0.5, attaining a large effect on NL (RSAb, ES = -1.5; RSAm, ES = -1.3) and only a small effect on RL athletes (RSAb and RSAm, ES = -0.2). Moreover, when each RSA sprint performance was compared between NL and RL players, after PAP-0.5 greater performance for all sprints was observed in the NL players. Therefore, adding a heavy strength-based conditioning exercise during the warm-up prior to a RSA test may induce significant performance improvements in NL, but only small effects in RL players. PMID:29599871

Weird Warm Spot on Exoplanet

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-10-19

This frame from an animation based on NASA Spitzer Space Telescope data illustrates an unexpected warm spot on the surface of a gaseous exoplanet.The bright orange patches are the hottest part of the planet.

G-warm inflation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl

A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolutionmore » of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.« less

Mitochondrial acclimation potential to ocean acidification and warming of Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

PubMed

Leo, Elettra; Kunz, Kristina L; Schmidt, Matthias; Storch, Daniela; Pörtner, Hans-O; Mark, Felix C

2017-01-01

Ocean acidification and warming are happening fast in the Arctic but little is known about the effects of ocean acidification and warming on the physiological performance and survival of Arctic fish. In this study we investigated the metabolic background of performance through analyses of cardiac mitochondrial function in response to control and elevated water temperatures and P CO 2 of two gadoid fish species, Polar cod ( Boreogadus saida ), an endemic Arctic species, and Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ), which is a temperate to cold eurytherm and currently expanding into Arctic waters in the wake of ocean warming. We studied their responses to the above-mentioned drivers and their acclimation potential through analysing the cardiac mitochondrial function in permeabilised cardiac muscle fibres after 4 months of incubation at different temperatures (Polar cod: 0, 3, 6, 8 °C and Atlantic cod: 3, 8, 12, 16 °C), combined with exposure to present (400μatm) and year 2100 (1170μatm) levels of CO 2 . OXPHOS, proton leak and ATP production efficiency in Polar cod were similar in the groups acclimated at 400μatm and 1170μatm of CO 2 , while incubation at 8 °C evoked increased proton leak resulting in decreased ATP production efficiency and decreased Complex IV capacity. In contrast, OXPHOS of Atlantic cod increased with temperature without compromising the ATP production efficiency, whereas the combination of high temperature and high P CO 2 depressed OXPHOS and ATP production efficiency. Polar cod mitochondrial efficiency decreased at 8 °C while Atlantic cod mitochondria were more resilient to elevated temperature; however, this resilience was constrained by high P CO 2 . In line with its lower habitat temperature and higher degree of stenothermy, Polar cod has a lower acclimation potential to warming than Atlantic cod.

Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean warm pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in eastern Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Peterson, Thomas C.; Stott, Peter A.; Herring, Stephanie

2012-01-01

In 2011, East Africa faced a tragic food crisis that led to famine conditions in parts of Somalia and severe food shortages in parts of Ethiopia and Somalia. While many nonclimatic factors contributed to this crisis (high global food prices, political instability, and chronic poverty, among others) failed rains in both the boreal winter of 2010/11 and the boreal spring of 2011 played a critical role. The back-to-back failures of these rains, which were linked to the dominant La Niña climate and warm SSTs in the central and southeastern Indian Ocean, were particularly problematic since they followed poor rainfall during the spring and summer of 2008 and 2009. In fact, in parts of East Africa, in recent years, there has been a substantial increase in the number of below-normal rainy seasons, which may be related to the warming of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans (for more details, see Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011; Lyon and DeWitt 2012). The basic argument of this work is that recent warming in the Indian–Pacific warm pool (IPWP) enhances the export of geopotential height energy from the warm pool, which tends to produce subsidence across eastern Africa and reduce onshore moisture transports. The general pattern of this disruption has been supported by canonical correlation analyzes and numerical experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model (Funk et al. 2008), diagnostic evaluations of reanalysis data (Williams and Funk 2011; Williams et al. 2011), and SST-driven experiments with ECHAM4.5, ECHAM5, and the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) (Lyon and DeWitt 2012).

Coarsening of AA6013-T6 Precipitates During Sheet Warm Forming Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ciano, M.; DiCecco, S.; Esmaeili, S.; Wells, M. A.; Worswick, M. J.

2018-03-01

The use of warm forming for AA6xxx-T6 sheet is of interest to improve its formability; however, the effect warm forming may have on the coarsening of precipitates and the mechanical strength of these sheets has not been well studied. In this research, the coarsening behavior of AA6013-T6 precipitates has been explored, in the temperature range of 200-300 °C, and time of 30 s up to 50 h. Additionally, the effect of warm deformation on coarsening behavior was explored using: (1) simulated warm forming tests in a Gleeble thermo-mechanical simulator and (2) bi-axial warm deformation tests. Using a strong obstacle model to describe the yield strength (YS) evolution of the AA6013-T6 material, and a Lifshitz, Slyozov, and Wagner (LSW) particle coarsening law to describe the change in precipitate size with time, the coarsening kinetics were modeled for this alloy. The coarsening kinetics in the range of 220-300 °C followed a trend similar to that previously found for AA6111 for the 180-220 °C range. There was strong evidence that coarsening kinetics were not altered due to warm deformation above 220 °C. For warm forming between 200 and 220 °C, the YS of the AA6013-T6 material increased slightly, which could be attributed to strain hardening during warm deformation. Finally, a non-isothermal coarsening model was used to assess the potential reduction in the YS of AA6013-T6 for practical processing conditions related to auto-body manufacturing. The model calculations showed that 90% of the original AA6013-T6 YS could be maintained, for warm forming temperatures up to 280 °C, if the heating schedule used to get the part to the warm forming temperature was limited to 1 min.

Local adaptation and the potential effects of a contaminant on predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming: a space-for-time substitution approach.

PubMed

Janssens, Lizanne; Dinh Van, Khuong; Debecker, Sara; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

2014-03-01

The ability to deal with temperature-induced changes in interactions with contaminants and predators under global warming is one of the outstanding, applied evolutionary questions. For this, it is crucial to understand how contaminants will affect activity levels, predator avoidance and antipredator responses under global warming and to what extent gradual thermal evolution may mitigate these effects. Using a space-for-time substitution approach, we assessed the potential for gradual thermal evolution shaping activity (mobility and foraging), predator avoidance and antipredator responses when Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae were exposed to zinc in a common-garden warming experiment at the mean summer water temperatures of shallow water bodies at southern and northern latitudes (24 and 20°C, respectively). Zinc reduced mobility and foraging, predator avoidance and escape swimming speed. Importantly, high-latitude populations showed stronger zinc-induced reductions in escape swimming speed at both temperatures, and in activity levels at the high temperature. The latter indicates that local thermal adaptation may strongly change the ecological impact of contaminants under global warming. Our study underscores the critical importance of considering local adaptation along natural gradients when integrating biotic interactions in ecological risk assessment, and the potential of gradual thermal evolution mitigating the effects of warming on the vulnerability to contaminants.

Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The set of commercially available chemical substances in commerce that may have significant global warming potential (GWP) is not well defined. Although there are currently over 200 chemicals with high GWP reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization, or Environmental Protection Agency, there may be hundreds of additional chemicals that may also have significant GWP. Evaluation of various approaches to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) and atmospheric lifetime will help to refine GWP estimates for compounds where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study compares values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical compounds against the best available values. It is important to assess the reliability of the underlying computational methods for computing RE to understand the sources of deviations from the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models. The values derived using these models are found to be in reasonable agreement with reported RE values (though significant improvement is obtained through scaling). The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is also discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed values of RE in this study. Deviations of

Enhanced CO2 uptake at a shallow Arctic Ocean seep field overwhelms the positive warming potential of emitted methane.

PubMed

Pohlman, John W; Greinert, Jens; Ruppel, Carolyn; Silyakova, Anna; Vielstädte, Lisa; Casso, Michael; Mienert, Jürgen; Bünz, Stefan

2017-05-23

Continued warming of the Arctic Ocean in coming decades is projected to trigger the release of teragrams (1 Tg = 10 6 tons) of methane from thawing subsea permafrost on shallow continental shelves and dissociation of methane hydrate on upper continental slopes. On the shallow shelves (<100 m water depth), methane released from the seafloor may reach the atmosphere and potentially amplify global warming. On the other hand, biological uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has the potential to offset the positive warming potential of emitted methane, a process that has not received detailed consideration for these settings. Continuous sea-air gas flux data collected over a shallow ebullitive methane seep field on the Svalbard margin reveal atmospheric CO 2 uptake rates (-33,300 ± 7,900 μmol m -2 ⋅d -1 ) twice that of surrounding waters and ∼1,900 times greater than the diffusive sea-air methane efflux (17.3 ± 4.8 μmol m -2 ⋅d -1 ). The negative radiative forcing expected from this CO 2 uptake is up to 231 times greater than the positive radiative forcing from the methane emissions. Surface water characteristics (e.g., high dissolved oxygen, high pH, and enrichment of 13 C in CO 2 ) indicate that upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water from near the seafloor accompanies methane emissions and stimulates CO 2 consumption by photosynthesizing phytoplankton. These findings challenge the widely held perception that areas characterized by shallow-water methane seeps and/or strongly elevated sea-air methane flux always increase the global atmospheric greenhouse gas burden.

Enhanced CO2 uptake at a shallow Arctic Ocean seep field overwhelms the positive warming potential of emitted methane

PubMed Central

Greinert, Jens; Silyakova, Anna; Vielstädte, Lisa; Casso, Michael; Mienert, Jürgen; Bünz, Stefan

2017-01-01

Continued warming of the Arctic Ocean in coming decades is projected to trigger the release of teragrams (1 Tg = 106 tons) of methane from thawing subsea permafrost on shallow continental shelves and dissociation of methane hydrate on upper continental slopes. On the shallow shelves (<100 m water depth), methane released from the seafloor may reach the atmosphere and potentially amplify global warming. On the other hand, biological uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) has the potential to offset the positive warming potential of emitted methane, a process that has not received detailed consideration for these settings. Continuous sea−air gas flux data collected over a shallow ebullitive methane seep field on the Svalbard margin reveal atmospheric CO2 uptake rates (−33,300 ± 7,900 μmol m−2⋅d−1) twice that of surrounding waters and ∼1,900 times greater than the diffusive sea−air methane efflux (17.3 ± 4.8 μmol m−2⋅d−1). The negative radiative forcing expected from this CO2 uptake is up to 231 times greater than the positive radiative forcing from the methane emissions. Surface water characteristics (e.g., high dissolved oxygen, high pH, and enrichment of 13C in CO2) indicate that upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water from near the seafloor accompanies methane emissions and stimulates CO2 consumption by photosynthesizing phytoplankton. These findings challenge the widely held perception that areas characterized by shallow-water methane seeps and/or strongly elevated sea−air methane flux always increase the global atmospheric greenhouse gas burden. PMID:28484018

Refrigeration Playbook: Natural Refrigerants; Selecting and Designing Energy-Efficient Commercial Refrigeration Systems That Use Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Caleb; Reis, Chuck; Nelson, Eric

This report provides guidance for selecting and designing energy efficient commercial refrigeration systems using low global warming potential refrigerants. Refrigeration systems are generally the largest energy end use in a supermarket type building, often accounting for more than half of a building's energy consumption.

Global warming and prairie wetlands: potential consequences for waterfowl habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poiani, Karen A.; Johnson, W. Carter

1991-01-01

precipitation and runoff from melting snow on frozen or saturated soils (Figure 2). Annual water levels fluctuate widely due to climate variability in the Great Plains (Borchert 1950, Kantrud et al. 1989b). Climate affects the quality of habitat for breeding waterfowl by controlling regional water conditions--water depth, areal extent, and length of wet/dry cycles (Cowardin et al. 1988)--and vegetation patterns such as the cover ration (the ratio of emergent plant cover to open water). With increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate models project warmer and, in some cases, drier conditions for the northern Great Plains (Karl et al. 1991, Manabe and Wetherald 1986, Mitchell 1983, Rind and Lebedeff 1984). In general, a warmer, drier climate could lower waterfowl production directly by increasing the frequency of dry basins and indirectly by producing less favorable cover rations (i.e., heavy emergent cover with few or no open-water areas). The possibility of diminished waterfowl production in a greenhouse climate comes at a time when waterfowl numbers have sharply declined for other reasons (Johnson and Shaffer 1987). Breeding habitat continues to be lost or altered by agriculture, grazing, burning, mowing, sedimentation, and drainage (Kantrud et al. 1989b). For example, it has been estimated that 60% of the wetland area in North Dakota has been drained (Tiner 1984). Pesticides entering wetlands from adjacent agricultural fields have been destructive to aquatic invertebrate populations and have significantly lowered duckling survival (Grue et al. 1988). In this article, we discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns, and waterflow habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model. The

Impact of management strategies on the global warming potential at the cropping system level.

PubMed

Goglio, Pietro; Grant, Brian B; Smith, Ward N; Desjardins, Raymond L; Worth, Devon E; Zentner, Robert; Malhi, Sukhdev S

2014-08-15

Estimating the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems is important in order to assess the impact of agriculture on climate change. In this study experimental data supplemented with results from a biophysical model (DNDC) were combined with life cycle assessment (LCA) to investigate the impact of management strategies on global warming potential of long-term cropping systems at two locations (Breton and Ellerslie) in Alberta, Canada. The aim was to estimate the difference in global warming potential (GWP) of cropping systems due to N fertilizer reduction and residue removal. Reducing the nitrogen fertilizer rate from 75 to 50 kg N ha(-1) decreased on average the emissions of N2O by 39%, NO by 59% and ammonia volatilisation by 57%. No clear trend for soil CO2 emissions was determined among cropping systems. When evaluated on a per hectare basis, cropping systems with residue removal required 6% more energy and had a little change in GWP. Conversely, when evaluated on the basis of gigajoules of harvestable biomass, residue removal resulted in 28% less energy requirement and 33% lower GWP. Reducing nitrogen fertilizer rate resulted in 18% less GWP on average for both functional units at Breton and 39% less GWP at Ellerslie. Nitrous oxide emissions contributed on average 67% to the overall GWP per ha. This study demonstrated that small changes in N fertilizer have a minimal impact on the productivity of the cropping systems but can still have a substantial environmental impact. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

2011-07-01

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Global Warming Responses at the Primary Secondary Interface: 2. Potential Effectiveness of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skamp, Keith; Boyes, Eddie; Stannistreet, Martin

2009-01-01

In an earlier paper (Skamp, Boyes, & Stanisstreet, 2009b), students' beliefs and willingness to act in relation to 16 specific actions related to global warming were compared across the primary secondary interface. More primary students believed in the effectiveness of most actions to reduce global warming and were willing to take those…

The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.

2002-12-01

The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

Multi-species collapses at the warm edge of a warming sea

PubMed Central

Rilov, Gil

2016-01-01

Even during the current biodiversity crisis, reports on population collapses of highly abundant, non-harvested marine species were rare until very recently. This is starting to change, especially at the warm edge of species’ distributions where populations are more vulnerable to stress. The Levant basin is the southeastern edge of distribution of most Mediterranean species. Coastal water conditions are naturally extreme, and are fast warming, making it a potential hotspot for species collapses. Using multiple data sources, I found strong evidence for major, sustained, population collapses of two urchins, one large predatory gastropod and a reef-building gastropod. Furthermore, of 59 molluscan species once-described in the taxonomic literature as common on Levant reefs, 38 were not found in the present-day surveys, and there was a total domination of non-indigenous species in molluscan assemblages. Temperature trends indicate an exceptional warming of the coastal waters in the past three decades. Though speculative at this stage, the fast rise in SST may have helped pushing these invertebrates beyond their physiological tolerance limits leading to population collapses and possible extirpations. If so, these collapses may indicate the initiation of a multi-species range contraction at the Mediterranean southeastern edge that may spread westward with additional warming. PMID:27853237

Estimations of global warming potentials from computational chemistry calculations for CH(2)F(2) and other fluorinated methyl species verified by comparison to experiment.

PubMed

Blowers, Paul; Hollingshead, Kyle

2009-05-21

In this work, the global warming potential (GWP) of methylene fluoride (CH(2)F(2)), or HFC-32, is estimated through computational chemistry methods. We find our computational chemistry approach reproduces well all phenomena important for predicting global warming potentials. Geometries predicted using the B3LYP/6-311g** method were in good agreement with experiment, although some other computational methods performed slightly better. Frequencies needed for both partition function calculations in transition-state theory and infrared intensities needed for radiative forcing estimates agreed well with experiment compared to other computational methods. A modified CBS-RAD method used to obtain energies led to superior results to all other previous heat of reaction estimates and most barrier height calculations when the B3LYP/6-311g** optimized geometry was used as the base structure. Use of the small-curvature tunneling correction and a hindered rotor treatment where appropriate led to accurate reaction rate constants and radiative forcing estimates without requiring any experimental data. Atmospheric lifetimes from theory at 277 K were indistinguishable from experimental results, as were the final global warming potentials compared to experiment. This is the first time entirely computational methods have been applied to estimate a global warming potential for a chemical, and we have found the approach to be robust, inexpensive, and accurate compared to prior experimental results. This methodology was subsequently used to estimate GWPs for three additional species [methane (CH(4)); fluoromethane (CH(3)F), or HFC-41; and fluoroform (CHF(3)), or HFC-23], where estimations also compare favorably to experimental values.

Comparison of net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity affected by management practices in two dryland cropping sites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Little is known about the effect of management practices on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dryland cropping systems. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of a combinat...

Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

2013-04-01

We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

Thermal density functional theory, ensemble density functional theory, and potential functional theory for warm dense matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pribram-Jones, Aurora

Warm dense matter (WDM) is a high energy phase between solids and plasmas, with characteristics of both. It is present in the centers of giant planets, within the earth's core, and on the path to ignition of inertial confinement fusion. The high temperatures and pressures of warm dense matter lead to complications in its simulation, as both classical and quantum effects must be included. One of the most successful simulation methods is density functional theory-molecular dynamics (DFT-MD). Despite great success in a diverse array of applications, DFT-MD remains computationally expensive and it neglects the explicit temperature dependence of electron-electron interactions known to exist within exact DFT. Finite-temperature density functional theory (FT DFT) is an extension of the wildly successful ground-state DFT formalism via thermal ensembles, broadening its quantum mechanical treatment of electrons to include systems at non-zero temperatures. Exact mathematical conditions have been used to predict the behavior of approximations in limiting conditions and to connect FT DFT to the ground-state theory. An introduction to FT DFT is given within the context of ensemble DFT and the larger field of DFT is discussed for context. Ensemble DFT is used to describe ensembles of ground-state and excited systems. Exact conditions in ensemble DFT and the performance of approximations depend on ensemble weights. Using an inversion method, exact Kohn-Sham ensemble potentials are found and compared to approximations. The symmetry eigenstate Hartree-exchange approximation is in good agreement with exact calculations because of its inclusion of an ensemble derivative discontinuity. Since ensemble weights in FT DFT are temperature-dependent Fermi weights, this insight may help develop approximations well-suited to both ground-state and FT DFT. A novel, highly efficient approach to free energy calculations, finite-temperature potential functional theory, is derived, which has the

Global warming /climate change: Involving students using local example.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isiorho, S. A.

2016-12-01

The current political climate has made it apparent that the general public does not believe in global warming. Also, there appears to be some confusion between global warming and climate change; global warming is one aspect of climate change. Most scientists believe there is climate change and global warming, although, there is still doubt among students on global warming. Some upper level undergraduate students are required to conduct water level/temperature measurements as part of their course grade. In addition to students having their individual projects, the various classes also utilize a well field within a wetland on campus to conduct group projects. Twelve wells in the well field on campus are used regularly by students to measure the depth of groundwater, the temperature of the waters and other basic water chemistry parameters like pH, conductivity and total dissolved solid (TDS) as part of the class group project. The data collected by each class is added to data from previous classes. Students work together as a group to interpret the data. More than 100 students have participated in this venture for more than 10 years of the four upper level courses: hydrogeology, environmental and urban geology, environmental conservation and wetlands. The temperature trend shows the seasonal variation as one would expect, but it also shows an upward trend (warming). These data demonstrate a change in climate and warming. Thus, the students participated in data collection, learn to write report and present their result to their peers in the classrooms.

Respiratory muscle specific warm-up and elite swimming performance.

PubMed

Wilson, Emma E; McKeever, Tricia M; Lobb, Claire; Sherriff, Tom; Gupta, Luke; Hearson, Glenn; Martin, Neil; Lindley, Martin R; Shaw, Dominick E

2014-05-01

Inspiratory muscle training has been shown to improve performance in elite swimmers, when used as part of routine training, but its use as a respiratory warm-up has yet to be investigated. To determine the influence of inspiratory muscle exercise (IME) as a respiratory muscle warm-up in a randomised controlled cross-over trial. A total of 15 elite swimmers were assigned to four different warm-up protocols and the effects of IME on 100 m freestyle swimming times were assessed.Each swimmer completed four different IME warm-up protocols across four separate study visits: swimming-only warm-up; swimming warm-up plus IME warm-up (2 sets of 30 breaths with a 40% maximum inspiratory mouth pressure load using the Powerbreathe inspiratory muscle trainer); swimming warm-up plus sham IME warm-up (2 sets of 30 breaths with a 15% maximum inspiratory mouth pressure load using the Powerbreathe inspiratory muscle trainer); and IME-only warm-up. Swimmers performed a series of physiological tests and scales of perception (rate of perceived exertion and dyspnoea) at three time points (pre warm-up, post warm-up and post time trial). The combined standard swimming warm-up and IME warm-up were the fastest of the four protocols with a 100 m time of 57.05 s. This was significantly faster than the IME-only warm-up (mean difference=1.18 s, 95% CI 0.44 to 1.92, p<0.01) and the swim-only warm-up (mean difference=0.62 s, 95% CI 0.001 to 1.23, p=0.05). Using IME combined with a standard swimming warm-up significantly improves 100 m freestyle swimming performance in elite swimmers.

The whole-soil carbon flux in response to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks Pries, Caitlin E.; Castanha, C.; Porras, R. C.; Torn, M. S.

2017-03-01

Soil organic carbon harbors three times as much carbon as Earth’s atmosphere, and its decomposition is a potentially large climate change feedback and major source of uncertainty in climate projections. The response of whole-soil profiles to warming has not been tested in situ. In a deep warming experiment in mineral soil, we found that CO2 production from all soil depths increased with 4°C warming; annual soil respiration increased by 34 to 37%. All depths responded to warming with similar temperature sensitivities, driven by decomposition of decadal-aged carbon. Whole-soil warming reveals a larger soil respiration response than many in situ experiments (most of which only warm the surface soil) and models.

Plant inputs, microbial carbon use in soil and decomposition under warming: effects of warming are depth dependent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendall, E.; Carrillo, Y.; Dijkstra, F. A.

2017-12-01

Future climate will include warmer conditions but impacts on soil C cycling remain uncertain and so are the potential warming-driven feedbacks. Net impacts will depend on the balance of effects on microbial activity and plant inputs. Soil depth is likely to be a critical factor driving this balance as it integrates gradients in belowground biomass, microbial activity and environmental variables. Most empirical studies focus on one soil layer and soil C forecasting relies on broad assumptions about effects of depth. Our limited understanding of the use of available C by soil microbes under climate change across depths is a critical source of uncertainty. Long-term labelling of plant biomass with C isotopic tracers in intact systems allows us to follow the dynamics of different soil C pools including the net accumulation of newly fixed C and the net loss of native C. These can be combined with concurrent observations of microbial use of C pools to explore the impacts of depth on the relationships between plant inputs and microbial C use. We evaluated belowground biomass, in-situ root decomposition and incorporation of plant-derived C into soil C and microbial C at 0-5 cm and 5-15 cmover 7 years at the Prairie Heating And CO2 Enrichment experiment. PHACE was a factorial manipulation of CO2 and warming in a native mixed grass prairie in Wyoming, USA. We used the continuous fumigation with labelled CO2 in the elevated CO2 treatments to study the C dynamics under unwarmed and warmed conditions. Shallower soils had three times the density of biomass as deeper soils. Warming increased biomass in both depths but this effect was weaker in deeper soils. Root litter mass loss in deeper soil was one third that of the shallow and was not affected by warming. Consistent with biomass distribution, incorporation of plant-derived C into soil and microbial C was lower in deeper soils and higher with warming. However, in contrast to the effect of warming on biomass, the effect of

78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-05

... Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming Potential Values for Certain... the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in... global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on...

Warm-Up Strategies for Sport and Exercise: Mechanisms and Applications.

PubMed

McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben

2015-11-01

It is widely accepted that warming-up prior to exercise is vital for the attainment of optimum performance. Both passive and active warm-up can evoke temperature, metabolic, neural and psychology-related effects, including increased anaerobic metabolism, elevated oxygen uptake kinetics and post-activation potentiation. Passive warm-up can increase body temperature without depleting energy substrate stores, as occurs during the physical activity associated with active warm-up. While the use of passive warm-up alone is not commonplace, the idea of utilizing passive warming techniques to maintain elevated core and muscle temperature throughout the transition phase (the period between completion of the warm-up and the start of the event) is gaining in popularity. Active warm-up induces greater metabolic changes, leading to increased preparedness for a subsequent exercise task. Until recently, only modest scientific evidence was available supporting the effectiveness of pre-competition warm-ups, with early studies often containing relatively few participants and focusing mostly on physiological rather than performance-related changes. External issues faced by athletes pre-competition, including access to equipment and the length of the transition/marshalling phase, have also frequently been overlooked. Consequently, warm-up strategies have continued to develop largely on a trial-and-error basis, utilizing coach and athlete experiences rather than scientific evidence. However, over the past decade or so, new research has emerged, providing greater insight into how and why warm-up influences subsequent performance. This review identifies potential physiological mechanisms underpinning warm-ups and how they can affect subsequent exercise performance, and provides recommendations for warm-up strategy design for specific individual and team sports.

Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming.

PubMed

Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sönke; Banguera-Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R; Wahl, Martin

2015-03-10

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

PubMed Central

Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sönke; Banguera-Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wahl, Martin

2015-01-01

Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21–27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28–33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28–29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals. PMID:25754672

Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—Part I: Past changes and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Shiogama, Hideo

2014-11-01

Land-sea surface air temperature (SAT) contrast, an index of tropospheric thermodynamic structure and dynamical circulation, has shown a significant increase in recent decades over East Asia during the boreal summer. In Part I of this two-part paper, observational data and the results of transient warming experiments conducted using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed to examine changes in land-sea thermal contrast and the associated atmospheric circulation over East Asia from the past to the future. The interannual variability of the land-sea SAT contrast over the Far East for 1950-2012 was found to be tightly coupled with a characteristic tripolar pattern of tropospheric circulation over East Asia, which manifests as anticyclonic anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and around the Philippines, and a cyclonic anomaly over Japan during a positive phase, and vice versa. In response to CO2 increase, the cold northeasterly winds off the east coast of northern Japan and the East Asian rainband were strengthened with the circulation pattern well projected on the observed interannual variability. These results are commonly found in GCMs regardless of future forcing scenarios, indicating the robustness of the East Asian climate response to global warming. The physical mechanisms responsible for the increase of the land-sea contrast are examined in Part II.

“Evolution Canyon,” a potential microscale monitor of global warming across life

PubMed Central

Nevo, Eviatar

2012-01-01

Climatic change and stress is a major driving force of evolution. The effects of climate change on living organisms have been shown primarily on regional and global scales. Here I propose the “Evolution Canyon” (EC) microscale model as a potential life monitor of global warming in Israel and the rest of the world. The EC model reveals evolution in action at a microscale involving biodiversity divergence, adaptation, and incipient sympatric speciation across life from viruses and bacteria through fungi, plants, and animals. The EC consists of two abutting slopes separated, on average, by 200 m. The tropical, xeric, savannoid, “African” south-facing slope (AS = SFS) abuts the forested “European” north-facing slope (ES = NFS). The AS receives 200–800% higher solar radiation than the ES. The ES represents the south European forested maquis. The AS and ES exhibit drought and shade stress, respectively. Major adaptations on the AS are because of solar radiation, heat, and drought, whereas those on the ES relate to light stress and photosynthesis. Preliminary evidence suggests the extinction of some European species on the ES and AS. In Drosophila, a 10-fold higher migration was recorded in 2003 from the AS to ES. I advance some predictions that could be followed in diverse species in EC. The EC microclimatic model is optimal to track global warming at a microscale across life from viruses and bacteria to mammals in Israel, and in additional ECs across the planet. PMID:22308456

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Global warming at the summit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

During the recent summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Bill Clinton, the two leaders reaffirmed their concerns about global warming and the need to continue to take actions to try to reduce the threat.In a June 4 joint statement, they stressed the need to develop flexibility mechanisms, including international emissions trading, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They also noted that initiatives to reduce the risk of greenhouse warming, including specific mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol, could potentially promote economic growth.

Cis- and trans-perfluorodecalin: Infrared spectra, radiative efficiency and global warming potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, Karine; DeZeeuw, Jasmine; Godin, Paul J.; Strong, Kimberly

2017-12-01

Perfluorodecalin (PFD) is a molecule used in various medical applications for its capacity to dissolve gases. This potent greenhouse gas was detected for the first time in the atmosphere in 2005. We present infrared absorption cross-section spectra of a pure vapour of cis- and trans-perfluorodecalin at a resolution of 0.1 cm-1. Measurements were performed in the 560-3000 cm-1 spectral range using Fourier transform spectroscopy. The spectra have been compared with previous experimental data and theoretical calculations by density functional theory. The new experimental absorption cross-sections have been used to calculate a lifetime-corrected radiative efficiency at 300 K of 0.62 W m-2 ppb-1 and 0.57 W.m-2.ppb-1 for the cis and trans isomers respectively. This leads to a 100-year time horizon global warming potential of 8030 for cis-PFD and 7440 for trans-PFD.

The Great Warming Brian Fagan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fagan, B. M.

2010-12-01

The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

2017-12-01

Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

Guidelines for Implementing a Dynamic Warm-Up for Physical Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faigenbaum, Avery; McFarland, James E., Jr.

2007-01-01

Since recent studies have not found substantial evidence to support the use of static stretching during the warm-up period, there has been a growing interest in dynamic warm-up procedures that can enhance physical fitness, improve performance, and better prepare students for the main part of physical education. In this article, the potential…

Warming and elevated CO 2 alter the suberin chemistry in roots of photosynthetically divergent grass species

DOE PAGES

Suseela, Vidya; Tharayil, Nishanth; Pendall, Elise; ...

2017-09-01

A majority of soil carbon (C) is either directly or indirectly derived from fine roots, yet roots remain the least understood component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The decomposability of fine roots and their potential to contribute to soil C is partly regulated by their tissue chemical composition. Roots rely heavily on heteropolymers such as suberins, lignins and tannins to adapt to various environmental pressures and to maximize their resource uptake functions. Since the chemical construction of roots is partly shaped by their immediate biotic/abiotic soil environments, global changes that perturb soil resource availability and plant growth could potentially altermore » root chemistry, and hence the decomposability of roots. However, the effect of global change on the quantity and composition of root heteropolymers are seldom investigated. We examined the effects of elevated CO 2 and warming on the quantity and composition of suberin in roots of Bouteloua gracilis (C4) and Hesperostipa comata (C3) grass species at the Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment at Wyoming, USA. Roots of B. gracilis exposed to elevated CO 2 and warming had higher abundances of suberin and lignin than those exposed to ambient climate treatments. In addition to changes in their abundance, roots exposed to warming and elevated CO 2 had higher ω-hydroxy acids compared to plants grown under ambient conditions. The suberin content and composition in roots of H. comata was less responsive to climate treatments. In H. comata, α,ω-dioic acids increased with the main effect of elevated CO 2, whereas the total quantity of suberin exhibited an increasing trend with the main effect of warming and elevated CO 2. The increase in suberin content and altered composition could lower root decomposition rates with implications for root-derived soil carbon under global change. Our study also suggests that the climate change induced alterations in species composition will further

Warming and elevated CO 2 alter the suberin chemistry in roots of photosynthetically divergent grass species

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suseela, Vidya; Tharayil, Nishanth; Pendall, Elise

A majority of soil carbon (C) is either directly or indirectly derived from fine roots, yet roots remain the least understood component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The decomposability of fine roots and their potential to contribute to soil C is partly regulated by their tissue chemical composition. Roots rely heavily on heteropolymers such as suberins, lignins and tannins to adapt to various environmental pressures and to maximize their resource uptake functions. Since the chemical construction of roots is partly shaped by their immediate biotic/abiotic soil environments, global changes that perturb soil resource availability and plant growth could potentially altermore » root chemistry, and hence the decomposability of roots. However, the effect of global change on the quantity and composition of root heteropolymers are seldom investigated. We examined the effects of elevated CO 2 and warming on the quantity and composition of suberin in roots of Bouteloua gracilis (C4) and Hesperostipa comata (C3) grass species at the Prairie Heating and CO 2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment at Wyoming, USA. Roots of B. gracilis exposed to elevated CO 2 and warming had higher abundances of suberin and lignin than those exposed to ambient climate treatments. In addition to changes in their abundance, roots exposed to warming and elevated CO 2 had higher ω-hydroxy acids compared to plants grown under ambient conditions. The suberin content and composition in roots of H. comata was less responsive to climate treatments. In H. comata, α,ω-dioic acids increased with the main effect of elevated CO 2, whereas the total quantity of suberin exhibited an increasing trend with the main effect of warming and elevated CO 2. The increase in suberin content and altered composition could lower root decomposition rates with implications for root-derived soil carbon under global change. Our study also suggests that the climate change induced alterations in species composition will further

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of

Pair potentials for warm dense matter and their application to x-ray Thomson scattering in aluminum and beryllium.

PubMed

Harbour, L; Dharma-Wardana, M W C; Klug, D D; Lewis, L J

2016-11-01

Ultrafast laser experiments yield increasingly reliable data on warm dense matter, but their interpretation requires theoretical models. We employ an efficient density functional neutral-pseudoatom hypernetted-chain (NPA-HNC) model with accuracy comparable to ab initio simulations and which provides first-principles pseudopotentials and pair potentials for warm-dense matter. It avoids the use of (i) ad hoc core-repulsion models and (ii) "Yukawa screening" and (iii) need not assume ion-electron thermal equilibrium. Computations of the x-ray Thomson scattering (XRTS) spectra of aluminum and beryllium are compared with recent experiments and with density-functional-theory molecular-dynamics (DFT-MD) simulations. The NPA-HNC structure factors, compressibilities, phonons, and conductivities agree closely with DFT-MD results, while Yukawa screening gives misleading results. The analysis of the XRTS data for two of the experiments, using two-temperature quasi-equilibrium models, is supported by calculations of their temperature relaxation times.

Forced-air patient warming blankets disrupt unidirectional airflow.

PubMed

Legg, A J; Hamer, A J

2013-03-01

We have recently shown that waste heat from forced-air warming blankets can increase the temperature and concentration of airborne particles over the surgical site. The mechanism for the increased concentration of particles and their site of origin remained unclear. We therefore attempted to visualise the airflow in theatre over a simulated total knee replacement using neutral-buoyancy helium bubbles. Particles were created using a Rocket PS23 smoke machine positioned below the operating table, a potential area of contamination. The same theatre set-up, warming devices and controls were used as in our previous study. This demonstrated that waste heat from the poorly insulated forced-air warming blanket increased the air temperature on the surgical side of the drape by > 5°C. This created convection currents that rose against the downward unidirectional airflow, causing turbulence over the patient. The convection currents increased the particle concentration 1000-fold (2 174 000 particles/m(3) for forced-air warming vs 1000 particles/m(3) for radiant warming and 2000 particles/m(3) for the control) by drawing potentially contaminated particles from below the operating table into the surgical site. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2013;95-B:407-10.

Assessing the global warming potential of wooden products from the furniture sector to improve their ecodesign.

PubMed

González-García, Sara; Gasol, Carles M; Lozano, Raúl García; Moreira, María Teresa; Gabarrell, Xavier; Rieradevall i Pons, Joan; Feijoo, Gumersindo

2011-12-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the global warming potential of several wood products as an environmental criterion for their ecodesign. Two methodologies were combined: the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions (equivalent CO(2)) of several representative wood based products from the furniture sector and the integration of environmental aspects into product design. The products under assessment were classified in two groups: indoor products and outdoor products, depending on their location. "Indoor products" included a convertible cot/bed, a kitchen cabinet, an office table, a living room furniture, a headboard, youth room accessories and a wine crate, while the "Outdoor products" analysed were a ventilated wooden wall and a wooden playground. Spanish wood processing companies located in Galicia (NW Spain) and Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed in detail. The life cycle of each product was carried out from a cradle-to-gate perspective according to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, using global warming potential as the selected impact category. According to the results, metals, boards and energy use appeared to be the most contributing elements to the environmental impact of the different products under assessment, with total contributions ranging from 40% to 90%. Furthermore, eco-design strategies were proposed by means of the methodology known as Design for the Environment (DfE). Improvement strategies viable for implementation in the short term were considered and analysed in detail, accounting for remarkable reductions in the equivalent CO(2) emissions (up to 60%). These strategies would be focused on the use of renewable energies such as photovoltaic cells, the promotion of national fibres or changes in the materials used. Other alternatives to be implemented in the long term can be of potential interest for future developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management of Philippine tropical forests: Implications to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lasco, R.D.

1997-12-31

The first part of the paper presents the massive changes in tropical land management in the Philippines as a result of a {open_quotes}paradigm shift{close_quotes} in forestry. The second part of the paper analyzes the impacts of the above management strategies on global warming, in general, preserved forests are neither sinks not sources of greenhouse gasses (GHG). Reforestation activities are primarily net sinks of carbon specially the use of fast growing reforestation species. Estimates are given for the carbon-sequestering ability of some commonly used species. The last part of the paper policy recommendations and possible courses of action by the governmentmore » to maximize the role of forest lands in the mitigation of global warming. Private sector initiatives are also explored.« less

Physical Mechanisms of Rapid Lake Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.

2016-12-01

Recent studies have shown significant warming of inland water bodies around the world. Many lakes are warming more rapidly than the ambient surface air temperature, and this is counter to what is often expected based on the lake surface energy balance. A host of reasons have been proposed to explain these discrepancies, including changes in the onset of summer stratification, significant loss of ice cover, and concomitant changes in winter air temperature and/or summer cloud cover. A review of the literature suggests that no single physical mechanism is primarily responsible for the majority of these changes, but rather that the large heterogeneity in regional climate trends and lake geomorphometry results in a host of potential physical drivers. In this study, we discuss the variety of mechanisms that have been proposed to explain rapid lake warming and offer an assessment of the physical plausibility for each potential contributor. Lake Superior is presented as a case study to illustrate the "perfect storm" of factors that can cause a deep, dimictic lake to warm at rate that exceeds the rate of global air temperature warming by nearly an order of magnitude. In particular, we use a simple mixed-layer model to show that spatially variable trends in Lake Superior surface water temperature are determined, to first order, by variations in bathymetry and winter air temperature. Summer atmospheric conditions are often of less significance, and winter ice cover may simply be a correlate. The results highlight the importance of considering the full range of factors that can lead to trends in lake surface temperature, and that conventional wisdom may often not be the best guide.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Workshop on Early Mars: How Warm and How Wet?, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squyres, S. (Editor); Kasting, J. (Editor)

1993-01-01

This volume contains papers that have been accepted for presentation at the Workshop on Early Mars: How Warm and How Wet?, 26-28 Jul. 1993, in Breckenridge, CO. The following topics are covered: the Martian water cycle; Martian paleoclimatology; CO2/CH4 atmosphere on early Mars; Noachian hydrology; early Martian environment; Martian weathering; nitrogen isotope ratios; CO2 evolution on Mars; and climate change.

Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

2015-04-01

The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Next Generation Refrigeration Lubricants for Low Global Warming Potential/Low Ozone Depleting Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hessell, Edward Thomas

The goal of this project is to develop and test new synthetic lubricants that possess high compatibility with new low ozone depleting (LOD) and low global warming potential (LGWP) refrigerants and offer improved lubricity and wear protection over current lubricant technologies. The improved compatibility of the lubricants with the refrigerants, along with improved lubricating properties, will resulted in lower energy consumption and longer service life of the refrigeration systems used in residential, commercial and industrial heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) and refrigeration equipment.

Native temperature regime influences soil response to simulated warming

Treesearch

Timothy G. Whitby; Michael D. Madritch

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase global temperatures and potentially increase soil carbon (C) mineralization, which could lead to a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. However the magnitude and spatial variability of belowground responses to warming are not yet fully understood. Some of the variability may depend...

Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hileman, Bette

1989-01-01

States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

A real-time Global Warming Index.

PubMed

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Soil warming, carbon–nitrogen interactions, and forest carbon budgets

PubMed Central

Melillo, Jerry M.; Butler, Sarah; Johnson, Jennifer; Mohan, Jacqueline; Steudler, Paul; Lux, Heidi; Burrows, Elizabeth; Bowles, Francis; Smith, Rose; Scott, Lindsay; Vario, Chelsea; Hill, Troy; Burton, Andrew; Zhou, Yu-Mei; Tang, Jim

2011-01-01

Soil warming has the potential to alter both soil and plant processes that affect carbon storage in forest ecosystems. We have quantified these effects in a large, long-term (7-y) soil-warming study in a deciduous forest in New England. Soil warming has resulted in carbon losses from the soil and stimulated carbon gains in the woody tissue of trees. The warming-enhanced decay of soil organic matter also released enough additional inorganic nitrogen into the soil solution to support the observed increases in plant carbon storage. Although soil warming has resulted in a cumulative net loss of carbon from a New England forest relative to a control area over the 7-y study, the annual net losses generally decreased over time as plant carbon storage increased. In the seventh year, warming-induced soil carbon losses were almost totally compensated for by plant carbon gains in response to warming. We attribute the plant gains primarily to warming-induced increases in nitrogen availability. This study underscores the importance of incorporating carbon–nitrogen interactions in atmosphere–ocean–land earth system models to accurately simulate land feedbacks to the climate system. PMID:21606374

Revisiting CMB constraints on warm inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arya, Richa; Dasgupta, Arnab; Goswami, Gaurav; Prasad, Jayanti; Rangarajan, Raghavan

2018-02-01

We revisit the constraints that Planck 2015 temperature, polarization and lensing data impose on the parameters of warm inflation. To this end, we study warm inflation driven by a single scalar field with a quartic self interaction potential in the weak dissipative regime. We analyse the effect of the parameters of warm inflation, namely, the inflaton self coupling λ and the inflaton dissipation parameter QP on the CMB angular power spectrum. We constrain λ and QP for 50 and 60 number of e-foldings with the full Planck 2015 data (TT, TE, EE + lowP and lensing) by performing a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis using the publicly available code CosmoMC and obtain the joint as well as marginalized distributions of those parameters. We present our results in the form of mean and 68 % confidence limits on the parameters and also highlight the degeneracy between λ and QP in our analysis. From this analysis we show how warm inflation parameters can be well constrained using the Planck 2015 data.

A global meta-analysis on the impact of management practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from cropland soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural practices contribute significant amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but little is known about their effects on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) that account for all sources and sinks of carbon dioxide emissions per unit area or crop yield. Se...

When could global warming reach 4°C?

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

2011-01-13

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon

Ab Initio Quantum Monte Carlo Simulation of the Warm Dense Electron Gas in the Thermodynamic Limit

DOE PAGES

Dornheim, Tobias; Groth, Simon; Sjostrom, Travis; ...

2016-10-07

Here we perform ab initio quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulations of the warm dense uniform electron gas in the thermodynamic limit. By combining QMC data with the linear response theory, we are able to remove finite-size errors from the potential energy over the substantial parts of the warm dense regime, overcoming the deficiencies of the existing finite-size corrections by Brown et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 146405 (2013)]. Extensive new QMC results for up to N = 1000 electrons enable us to compute the potential energy V and the exchange-correlation free energy F xc of the macroscopic electron gas withmore » an unprecedented accuracy of | Δ V | / | V | , | Δ F xc | / | F | xc ~ 10 $-$3. Finally, a comparison of our new data to the recent parametrization of F xc by Karasiev et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 076403 (2014)] reveals significant deviations to the latter.« less

The efficacy and characteristics of warm-up and re-warm-up practices in soccer players: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hammami, Amri; Zois, James; Slimani, Maamer; Russel, Mark; Bouhlel, Ezdine

2018-01-01

This review aimed 1) to evaluate the current research that examines the efficacy of warm-up (WU) and re-warm-up (RWU) on physical performance; and 2) to highlight the WU and RWU characteristics that optimise subsequent performance in soccer players. A computerized search was performed in the PubMed, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar (from 1995 to December 2015) for English-language, peer-reviewed investigations using the terms "soccer" OR "football" AND "warm-up" OR "stretching" OR "post-activation potentiation" OR "pre-activity" OR "re-warm-up" AND "performance" OR "jump" OR "sprint" OR "running". Twenty seven articles were retrieved. Particularly, 22 articles examined the effects of WU on soccer performance and 5 articles focused on the effects of RWU. Clear evidence exists supporting the inclusion of dynamic stretching or postactivation potentiation-based exercises within a WU as acute performance enhancements were reported (pooled estimate changes of +3.46% and +4.21%, respectively). The FIFA 11+ WU also significantly increases strength, jump, speed and explosive performances (changes from 1% to 20%). At half-time, active RWU protocols including postactivation potentiation practices and multidirectional speed drills attenuate temperature and performance reductions induced by habitual practice. The data obtained in the present review showed that the level of play did not moderate the effectiveness of WU and RWU on soccer performance. This review demonstrated that a static stretching WU reduced acute subsequent performance, while WU activities that include dynamic stretching, PAP-based exercises, and the FIFA 11+ can elicit positive effects in soccer players. The efficacy of an active RWU during half-time is also justified.

Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay

1992-01-01

Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)

Relative roles of differential SST warming, uniform SST warming and land surface warming in determining the Walker circulation changes under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim

2017-02-01

Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Springback of aluminum alloy brazing sheet in warm forming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Kyu Bin; George, Ryan; Kurukuri, Srihari; Worswick, Michael J.; Winkler, Sooky

2017-10-01

The use of aluminum is increasing in the automotive industry due to its high strength-to-weight ratio, recyclability and corrosion resistance. However, aluminum is prone to significant springback due to its low elastic modulus coupled with its high strength. In this paper, a warm forming process is studied to improve the springback characteristics of 0.2 mm thick brazing sheet with an AA3003 core and AA4045 clad. Warm forming decreases springback by lowering the flow stress. The parts formed have complex features and geometries that are representative of automotive heat exchangers. The key objective is to utilize warm forming to control the springback to improve the part flatness which enables the use of harder temper material with improved strength. The experiments are performed by using heated dies at several different temperatures up to 350 °C and the blanks are pre-heated in the dies. The measured springback showed a reduction in curvature and improved flatness after forming at higher temperatures, particularly for the harder temper material conditions.

Potential causes of differences between ground and surface air temperature warming across different ecozones in Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majorowicz, Jacek A.; Skinner, Walter R.

1997-10-01

Analysis and modelling of temperature anomalies from 25 selected deep wells in Alberta show that the differences between GST (ground surface temperature) warming for the northern Boreal Forest ecozone and the combined Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region to the south occur during the latter half of this century. This corresponds with recent changes in surface albedo resulting from permanent land development in the northern areas and also to increases in natural forest fires in the past 20 years. Differences between GST and SAT (surface air temperature) warming are much higher in the Boreal Forest ecozone than in the Prairie Grassland ecozone and Aspen Parkland transition region. Various hypotheses which could account for the existing differences between the GST and SAT warming in the different ecozones of Alberta, and western Canada in general, are tested. Analysis of existing data on soil temperature, hydrological piezometric surfaces, snowfall and moisture patterns, and land clearing and forest fires, indicate that large areas of Alberta, characterised by anomalous GST warming, have experienced widespread changes to the surface landscape in this century. It is postulated that this has resulted in a lower surface albedo with a subsequent increase in the absorption of solar energy. Heat flow modelling shows that, after climatic SAT warming, permanent clearing of the land is the most effective and likely cause of the observed changes in the GST warming. The greater GST warming in the Boreal Forest ecozone in the latter half of this century is related to landscape change due to land development and increasing forest fire activity. It appears to account for a portion of the observed SAT warming in this region through a positive feedback loop with the overlying air. The anthropogenic effect on regional climatic warming through 20th century land clearing and landscape alteration requires further study. In future, more accurate quantification of

Laboratory evaluation of a warm asphalt technology for use in Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Rising energy costs and increased environmental awareness have brought attention to the potential benefits of warm asphalt in the United States. Warm-mix asphalt (WMA) is produced by incorporating additives into asphalt mixtures to allow production a...

Classical and quantum simulations of warm dense carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitley, Heather; Sanchez, David; Hamel, Sebastien; Correa, Alfredo; Benedict, Lorin

We have applied classical and DFT-based molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to study the equation of state of carbon in the warm dense matter regime (ρ = 3.7 g/cc, 0.86 eV potentials: 1. LCBOP, designed to simulate solid phases of C, and 2. linearly screened Coulomb (Yukawa) potentials. We observe that LCBOP over-predicts the pair correlations in liquid-C in this regime when compared to the DFT-MD results. Conversely, the Yukawa model seems to produce the correct qualitative features in the static ionic pair distributions at the highest-T, but does not capture the correct correlations at lower T. However, both interaction potentials predict that the decay in the ionic contribution of the specific heat as T approaches infinity is much slower than that predicted by a model based on DFT-MD. These differences in the MD-derived equations of state in warm dense regimes could have important consequences when using classical inter-ionic forces such as these in large-scale MD simulations aimed at studying processes of relevance to inertial confinement fusion. This study points to a need for better interatomic potentials to describe warm dense matter. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter: Accelerated Increase in Arctic Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

[Effects of warming and precipitation exclusion on soil N2O fluxes in subtropical forests.

PubMed

Tang, Cai di; Zhang, Zheng; Cai, Xiao Zhen; Guo, Jian Fen; Yang, Yu Sheng

2017-10-01

In order to explore how soil warming and precipitation exclusion influence soil N2O fluxes, we used related functional genes as markers, and four treatments were set up, i.e. , control (CT), soil warming (W, 5 ℃ above the ambient temperature of the control), 50% precipitation reduction (P), soil warming plus 50% precipitation reduction (WP). The results showed that precipitation exclusion reduced soil ammonium nitrogen concentration significantly. Soil warming decreased soil N2O flux and soil denitrification potential significantly. Soil microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN) in warming treatment (W) and precipitation exclusion treatment (P) was significantly lower than that in the control. The amoA gene abundance of AOA was negatively correlated with MBN and ammonium nitrogen contents, but neither soil nitrification potential nor soil N2O flux was correlated with the amoA gene abundance of AOA. Path analysis showed that the denitrification potential affected soil N2O flux directly, while microbial biomass phosphorus (MBP) and warming affected soil N2O flux indirectly through their direct effects on denitrification potential. Temperature might be the main driver of N2O flux in subtropical forest soils. Global warming would reduce N2O emissions from subtropical forest soils.

Lasting effect of soil warming on organic matter decomposition depends on tillage practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global warming affects various parts of carbon (C) cycle including acceleration of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition with strong feedback to atmospheric CO2 concentration. Despite many soil warming studies showed changes of microbial community structure, very few were focused on the effect of ...

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Situational Influences upon Children's Beliefs about Global Warming and Energy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Fleming, Paul

2004-01-01

This paper explores children's beliefs about global warming and energy sources from a psychological perspective, focusing upon situational influences upon subjective beliefs, including perceived self-efficacy. The context of the research is one of growing concern at the potential impacts of global warming, yet demonstrably low levels of…

Changes in substrate availability drive carbon cycle response to chronic warming

DOE PAGES

Pold, Grace; Grandy, A. Stuart; Melillo, Jerry M.; ...

2017-03-22

As earth's climate continues to warm, it is important to understand how the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain carbon (C) will be affected. We combined measurements of microbial activity with the concentration, quality, and physical accessibility of soil carbon to microorganisms to evaluate the mechanisms by which more than two decades of experimental warming has altered the carbon cycle in a Northeast US temperate deciduous forest. We have found that concentrations of soil organic matter were reduced in both the organic and mineral soil horizons. The molecular composition of the carbon was altered in the mineral soil with significantmore » reductions in the relative abundance of polysaccharides and lignin, and an increase in lipids. Mineral-associated organic matter was preferentially depleted by warming in the top 3 cm of mineral soil. We found that potential extracellular enzyme activity per gram of soil at a common temperature was generally unaffected by warming treatment. However, by measuring potential extracellular enzyme activities between 4 and 30 °C, we found that activity per unit microbial biomass at in-situ temperatures was increased by warming. This was associated with a tendency for microbial biomass to decrease with warming. These results indicate that chronic warming has reduced soil organic matter concentrations, selecting for a smaller but more active microbial community increasingly dependent on mineral-associated organic matter.« less

Changes in substrate availability drive carbon cycle response to chronic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pold, Grace; Grandy, A. Stuart; Melillo, Jerry M.

As earth's climate continues to warm, it is important to understand how the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to retain carbon (C) will be affected. We combined measurements of microbial activity with the concentration, quality, and physical accessibility of soil carbon to microorganisms to evaluate the mechanisms by which more than two decades of experimental warming has altered the carbon cycle in a Northeast US temperate deciduous forest. We have found that concentrations of soil organic matter were reduced in both the organic and mineral soil horizons. The molecular composition of the carbon was altered in the mineral soil with significantmore » reductions in the relative abundance of polysaccharides and lignin, and an increase in lipids. Mineral-associated organic matter was preferentially depleted by warming in the top 3 cm of mineral soil. We found that potential extracellular enzyme activity per gram of soil at a common temperature was generally unaffected by warming treatment. However, by measuring potential extracellular enzyme activities between 4 and 30 °C, we found that activity per unit microbial biomass at in-situ temperatures was increased by warming. This was associated with a tendency for microbial biomass to decrease with warming. These results indicate that chronic warming has reduced soil organic matter concentrations, selecting for a smaller but more active microbial community increasingly dependent on mineral-associated organic matter.« less

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Biogeochemical potential of biomass pyrolysis systems for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, C.; Schmidt, H.-P.; Gerten, D.; Lucht, W.; Kammann, C.

2018-04-01

Negative emission (NE) technologies are recognized to play an increasingly relevant role in strategies limiting mean global warming to 1.5 °C as specified in the Paris Agreement. The potentially significant contribution of pyrogenic carbon capture and storage (PyCCS) is, however, highly underrepresented in the discussion. In this study, we conduct the first quantitative assessment of the global potential of PyCCS as a NE technology based on biomass plantations. Using a process-based biosphere model, we calculate the land use change required to reach specific climate mitigation goals while observing biodiversity protection guardrails. We consider NE targets of 100–300 GtC following socioeconomic pathways consistent with a mean global warming of 1.5 °C as well as the option of additional carbon balancing required in case of failure or delay of decarbonization measures. The technological opportunities of PyCCS are represented by three tracks accounting for the sequestration of different pyrolysis products: biochar (as soil amendment), bio-oil (pumped into geological storages) and permanent-pyrogas (capture and storage of CO2 from gas combustion). In addition, we analyse how the gain in land induced by biochar-mediated yield increases on tropical cropland may reduce the pressure on land. Our results show that meeting the 1.5 °C goal through mitigation strategies including large-scale NE with plantation-based PyCCS may require conversion of natural vegetation to biomass plantations in the order of 133–3280 Mha globally, depending on the applied technology and the NE demand. Advancing towards additional bio-oil sequestration reduces land demand considerably by potentially up to 60%, while the benefits from yield increases account for another 3%–38% reduction (equalling 82–362 Mha). However, when mitigation commitments are increased by high balancing claims, even the most advanced PyCCS technologies and biochar-mediated co-benefits cannot compensate for

Commentary: Urgent need for large-scale warming manipulation experiments in tropical forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavaleri, M. A.; Wood, T. E.; Reed, S.

2013-12-01

Tropical forests represent the largest fluxes of carbon into and out of the atmosphere of any terrestrial ecosystem type on earth. Despite their clear biogeochemical importance, responses of tropical forests to global warming are more uncertain than for any other biome. This uncertainty stems primarily from a lack of mechanistic data, in part because warming manipulation field experiments have been located almost exclusively in higher latitude systems. As a result of the large fluxes, lack of data, and high uncertainty, recent studies have highlighted the tropics as a 'high priority region' for future climate change research. We argue that warming manipulation experiments are urgently needed in tropical forests that are: 1) single-factor, 2) large-scale, and 3) long-term. The emergence of a novel heat regime is predicted for the tropics within the next two decades, and tropical forest trees may be more susceptible to warming than previously thought. Over a decade of Free Air CO2 Enrichment experiments have shown that single-factor studies that integrate above- and belowground function can be the most informative and efficient means of informing models, which can then be used to determine interactive effects of multiple factors. Warming both above- and below-ground parts of an ecosystem would be fundamental to the understanding of whole-ecosystem and net carbon responses because of the multiple feedbacks between tree canopy, root, and soil function. Finally, evidence from high-latitude warming experiments highlight the importance of long-term studies by suggesting that key processes related to carbon cycling, like soil respiration, could acclimate with extended warming. Despite the fact that there has never been a long-term ecosystem-level warming experiment in any forest, the technology is available, and momentum is gathering. In order to study the effects of warming on tropical forests, which contribute disproportionately to global carbon balance, full

Estimating thermal regimes of bull trout and assessing the potential effects of climate warming on critical habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species and habitats under climate change is critical for conservation and management of freshwater systems. Climate warming is predicted to increase water temperatures in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet few studies have developed spatially explicit modelling tools for understanding the potential impacts. We parameterized a nonspatial model, a spatial flow-routed model, and a spatial hierarchical model to predict August stream temperatures (22-m resolution) throughout the Flathead River Basin, USA and Canada. Model comparisons showed that the spatial models performed significantly better than the nonspatial model, explaining the spatial autocorrelation found between sites. The spatial hierarchical model explained 82% of the variation in summer mean (August) stream temperatures and was used to estimate thermal regimes for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats, one of the most thermally sensitive coldwater species in western North America. The model estimated summer thermal regimes of spawning and rearing habitats at <13 C° and foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitats at <14 C°. To illustrate the useful application of such a model, we simulated climate warming scenarios to quantify potential loss of critical habitats under forecasted climatic conditions. As air and water temperatures continue to increase, our model simulations show that lower portions of the Flathead River Basin drainage (foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitat) may become thermally unsuitable and headwater streams (spawning and rearing) may become isolated because of increasing thermal fragmentation during summer. Model results can be used to focus conservation and management efforts on populations of concern, by identifying critical habitats and assessing thermal changes at a local scale.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

PubMed Central

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-01-01

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

PubMed

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-02-03

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon Cycle Model CO2 Decay Response and Future CO2... Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon Cycle Model CO2 Decay Response and Future CO2 Atmospheric...

Warm Absorber Diagnostics of AGN Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallman, Timothy

Warm absorbers and related phenomena are observable manifestations of outflows or winds from active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have great potential value. Understanding AGN outflows is important for explaining the mass budgets of the central accreting black hole, and also for understanding feedback and the apparent co-evolution of black holes and their host galaxies. In the X-ray band warm absorbers are observed as photoelectric absorption and resonance line scattering features in the 0.5-10 keV energy band; the UV band also shows resonance line absorption. Warm absorbers are common in low luminosity AGN and they have been extensively studied observationally. They may play an important role in AGN feedback, regulating the net accretion onto the black hole and providing mechanical energy to the surroundings. However, fundamental properties of the warm absorbers are not known: What is the mechanism which drives the outflow?; what is the gas density in the flow and the geometrical distribution of the outflow?; what is the explanation for the apparent relation between warm absorbers and the surprising quasi-relativistic 'ultrafast outflows' (UFOs)? We propose a focused set of model calculations that are aimed at synthesizing observable properties of warm absorber flows and associated quantities. These will be used to explore various scenarios for warm absorber dynamics in order to answer the questions in the previous paragraph. The guiding principle will be to examine as wide a range as possible of warm absorber driving mechanisms, geometry and other properties, but with as careful consideration as possible to physical consistency. We will build on our previous work, which was a systematic campaign for testing important class of scenarios for driving the outflows. We have developed a set of tools that are unique and well suited for dynamical calculations including radiation in this context. We also have state-of-the-art tools for generating synthetic spectra, which are

Designing a warm-up protocol for elite bob-skeleton athletes.

PubMed

Cook, Christian; Holdcroft, Danny; Drawer, Scott; Kilduff, Liam P

2013-03-01

To investigate how different warm-ups influenced subsequent sled-pull sprint performance in Olympic-level bob-skeleton athletes as part of their preparation for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Three female and 3 male athletes performed 5 different randomized warm-ups of differing intensities, durations, and timing relative to subsequent testing, each 2 days apart, all repeated twice. After warm-ups, testing on a sled-pull sprint over 20 m, 3 repeats 3 min apart, took place. Performance testing showed improvement (P < .001, ES > 1.2) with both increasing intensity of warm-up and closeness of completion to testing, with 20-m sled sprinting being 0.1-0.25 s faster in higher-intensity protocols performed near testing In addition, supplementing the warm-ups by wearing of a light survival coat resulted in further performance improvement (P = .000, ES 1.8). Changing timing and intensity of warm-up and using an ancillary passive heat-retention device improved sprint performance in Olympic-level bob-skeleton athletes. Subsequent adoption of these on the competitive circuit was associated with a seasonal improvement in push times and was ultimately implemented in the 2010 Winter Olympics.

Modeling potential river management conflicts between frogs and salmonids

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Sarah J. Kupferberg; Margaret M. Lang; Scott McBain; Hart H. Welsh

2016-01-01

Management of regulated rivers for yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) and salmonids exemplifies potential conflicts among species adapted to different parts of the natural flow and temperature regimes. Yellow-legged frogs oviposit in rivers in spring and depend on declining flows and warming temperatures for egg and tadpole survival and growth,...

Ion-ion dynamic structure factor of warm dense mixtures

DOE PAGES

Gill, N. M.; Heinonen, R. A.; Starrett, C. E.; ...

2015-06-25

In this study, the ion-ion dynamic structure factor of warm dense matter is determined using the recently developed pseudoatom molecular dynamics method [Starrett et al., Phys. Rev. E 91, 013104 (2015)]. The method uses density functional theory to determine ion-ion pair interaction potentials that have no free parameters. These potentials are used in classical molecular dynamics simulations. This constitutes a computationally efficient and realistic model of dense plasmas. Comparison with recently published simulations of the ion-ion dynamic structure factor and sound speed of warm dense aluminum finds good to reasonable agreement. Using this method, we make predictions of the ion-ionmore » dynamical structure factor and sound speed of a warm dense mixture—equimolar carbon-hydrogen. This material is commonly used as an ablator in inertial confinement fusion capsules, and our results are amenable to direct experimental measurement.« less

How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions?

PubMed

Hegland, Stein Joar; Nielsen, Anders; Lázaro, Amparo; Bjerknes, Anne-Line; Totland, Ørjan

2009-02-01

Climate warming affects the phenology, local abundance and large-scale distribution of plants and pollinators. Despite this, there is still limited knowledge of how elevated temperatures affect plant-pollinator mutualisms and how changed availability of mutualistic partners influences the persistence of interacting species. Here we review the evidence of climate warming effects on plants and pollinators and discuss how their interactions may be affected by increased temperatures. The onset of flowering in plants and first appearance dates of pollinators in several cases appear to advance linearly in response to recent temperature increases. Phenological responses to climate warming may therefore occur at parallel magnitudes in plants and pollinators, although considerable variation in responses across species should be expected. Despite the overall similarities in responses, a few studies have shown that climate warming may generate temporal mismatches among the mutualistic partners. Mismatches in pollination interactions are still rarely explored and their demographic consequences are largely unknown. Studies on multi-species plant-pollinator assemblages indicate that the overall structure of pollination networks probably are robust against perturbations caused by climate warming. We suggest potential ways of studying warming-caused mismatches and their consequences for plant-pollinator interactions, and highlight the strengths and limitations of such approaches.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

2017-09-01

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

DOE PAGES

Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; ...

2017-09-19

Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. But, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ~1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ~2–3more » °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. Our approach is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.« less

Coastal warming and wind-driven upwelling: A global analysis.

PubMed

Varela, Rubén; Lima, Fernando P; Seabra, Rui; Meneghesso, Claudia; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho

2018-10-15

Long-term sea surface temperature (SST) warming trends are far from being homogeneous, especially when coastal and ocean locations are compared. Using data from NOAA's AVHRR OISST, we have analyzed sea surface temperature trends over the period 1982-2015 at around 3500 worldwide coastal points and their oceanic counterparts with a spatial resolution of 0.25 arc-degrees. Significant warming was observed at most locations although with important differences between oceanic and coastal points. This is especially patent for upwelling regions, where 92% of the coastal locations showed lower warming trends than at neighboring ocean locations. This result strongly suggests that upwelling has the potential to buffer the effects of global warming nearshore, with wide oceanographic, climatic, and biogeographic implications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of an Urban Multilayer Radiation Scheme and Its Application to the Urban Surface Warming Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoyagi, Toshinori; Takahashi, Shunji

2012-02-01

To investigate how a three-dimensional structure such as an urban canyon can affect urban surface warming, we developed an urban multilayer radiation scheme. The complete consideration of multiple scattering of shortwave and longwave radiation using the radiosity method is an important feature of the present scheme. A brief description of this scheme is presented, followed by evaluations that compare its results with observations of the effective albedo and radiative temperature for urban blocks. Next, we calculate the urban surface warming potential (USWP), defined as the difference between the daily mean radiative temperature of urban surfaces (which are assumed to be black bodies), including their canyon effects and the daily mean temperature of a flat surface with the same material properties, under a radiative equilibrium state. Assuming standard material properties (albedo and emissivity of 0.4 and 0.9, respectively), we studied the sensitivity of the USWP to various aspect ratios of building heights to road widths. The results show that the temporally-averaged surface temperature of an urban area can be higher than that of a flat surface. In addition, we determined the overestimation of the effective temperature of urban surfaces induced by the overestimation of the radiation distribution to the walls when one uses a single-layer scheme for urban block arrays that have a low sky-view factor less than around 0.5.

Peatland Microbial Carbon Use Under Warming using Isotopic Fractionation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutknecht, J.

2016-12-01

Peatlands are a critical natural resource, especially in their role as carbon sinks. Most of the world's peatlands are located in Northern ecosystems where the climate is changing at a rapid pace, and there is great interest and concern with how climate change will influence them. Although studies regarding the response of peatlands to climate change have emerged, the microbial mediation of C cycling in these systems is still less well understood. In this study, 13CPLFA analysis was used to characterize the microbial community and it's carbon use at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) Project. The SPRUCE project is an extensive study of the response of peatlands to climatic manipulation in the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota. Heating rods were installed in peatland plots where peat is being warmed at several levels including ambient, +2.5, +4.5, +6.75, and +9 degrees Celsius, at a depth of 3 meters, beginning July of 2014. Samples were taken June 2014, September 2014, and June 2015, throughout the depth profile. We found very high microbial, and especially fungal growth at shallow depths, owing in part to the influence of fungal-like lipids present in Sphagnum stems, and in part to dense mycorrhizal colonization in shrub and tree species. Isotopic data shows that microbial biomass has an enriched δ13C lower in the peat profile, indicating as expected that microbes at depth utilize older carbon or carbon more enriched in 13C. The increase over depth in the δ13C signature may also reflect the increased dominance of pre-industrial carbon that is more enriched in 13C. In this early period of warming we did not see clear effects of warming, either due to the highly heterogeneous microbial growth across the bog, or to the short term deep warming only. We expect that with the initiation of aboveground warming in July 2016, warming will begin to show stronger effects on microbial C cycling.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Effects of Short or Long Warm-up on Intermediate Running Performance.

PubMed

van den Tillaar, Roland; Vatten, Tormod; von Heimburg, Erna

2017-01-01

van den Tillaar, R, Vatten, T, and von Heimburg, E. Effects of short or long warm-up on intermediate running performance. J Strength Cond Res 31(1): 37-44, 2017-The aim of the study was to compare the effects of a long warm-up (general + specific) and a short warm-up (specific) on intermediate running performance (3-minute run). Thirteen experienced endurance-trained athletes (age 23.2 ± 2.3 years, body mass 79.8 ± 8.2 kg, body height 1.82 ± 0.05 m) conducted 2 types of warm-ups in a crossover design with 1 week in between: a long warm-up (10 minutes, 80% maximal heart rate, and 8 × 60 m sprint with increasing intensity and 1 minute rest in between) and a short warm-up (8 × 60 m sprint with increasing intensity and 1 minute rest in between). Each warm-up was followed by a 3-minute running test on a nonmotorized treadmill. Total running distance, running velocity at each 30 seconds, heart rate, blood lactate concentration, oxygen uptake, and rate of perceived exertion were measured. No significant differences in running performance variables and physiological parameters were found between the 2 warm-up protocols, except for the rate of perceived exertion and heart rate, which were higher after the long warm-up and after the 3-minute running test compared with the short warm-up. It was concluded that a short warm-up is as effective as a long warm-up for intermediate performance. Therefore, athletes can choose for themselves if they want to include a general part in their warm-up routines, even though it would not enhance their running performance more compared with only using a short, specific warm-up. However, to increase efficiency of time for training or competition, these short, specific warm-ups should be performed instead of long warm-ups.

Life cycle analysis of distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power: economics, global warming potential and water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norwood, Zack; Kammen, Daniel

2012-12-01

We report on life cycle assessment (LCA) of the economics, global warming potential and water (both for desalination and water use in operation) for a distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power (DCS-CHP) system. Detailed simulation of system performance across 1020 sites in the US combined with a sensible cost allocation scheme informs this LCA. We forecast a levelized cost of 0.25 kWh-1 electricity and 0.03 kWh-1 thermal, for a system with a life cycle global warming potential of ˜80 gCO2eq kWh-1 of electricity and ˜10 gCO2eq kWh-1 thermal, sited in Oakland, California. On the basis of the economics shown for air cooling, and the fact that any combined heat and power system reduces the need for cooling while at the same time boosting the overall solar efficiency of the system, DCS-CHP compares favorably to other electric power generation systems in terms of minimization of water use in the maintenance and operation of the plant. The outlook for water desalination coupled with distributed concentrating solar combined heat and power is less favorable. At a projected cost of 1.40 m-3, water desalination with DCS-CHP would be economical and practical only in areas where water is very scarce or moderately expensive, primarily available through the informal sector, and where contaminated or salt water is easily available as feed-water. It is also interesting to note that 0.40-1.90 m-3 is the range of water prices in the developed world, so DCS-CHP desalination systems could also be an economical solution there under some conditions.

Forestry and global warming: the physical and policy linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trexler, M. C.

1992-03-01

The potential for biotically mitigating global warming is receiving a great deal of policy and technical attention around the world. Elements of the political community are drawn to the notion that land-use patterns can be modified more easily than energy consumption patterns, and some modelers suggest that the potential for storing carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is very large. Most work to date, however, uses only physical criteria in estimating how much land might be available for reforestation. Accounting for social and economic constraints is much more difficult, resulting in daunting uncertainty about what could actually be accomplished. Furthermore, our relative ignorance of the functioning of the global carbon cycle makes attempting to manipulate it for human purposes questionable at best. Nevertheless, there are many reasons besides global warming to pursue a radical restructuring of land-use patterns around the world. Such a restructuring should be undertaken in conjunction with many other measures to slow global warming, most immediately in the energy sector.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

PubMed

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Warming effects on permafrost ecosystem carbon fluxes associated with plant nutrients.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Peng, Yunfeng; Natali, Susan M; Chen, Kelong; Han, Tianfeng; Yang, Guibiao; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhang, Dianye; Wang, Guanqin; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jianchun; Liu, Futing; Yang, Yuanhe

2017-11-01

Large uncertainties exist in carbon (C)-climate feedback in permafrost regions, partly due to an insufficient understanding of warming effects on nutrient availabilities and their subsequent impacts on vegetation C sequestration. Although a warming climate may promote a substantial release of soil C to the atmosphere, a warming-induced increase in soil nutrient availability may enhance plant productivity, thus offsetting C loss from microbial respiration. Here, we present evidence that the positive temperature effect on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes may be weakened by reduced plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations in a Tibetan permafrost ecosystem. Although experimental warming initially enhanced ecosystem CO 2 uptake, the increased rate disappeared after the period of peak plant growth during the early growing season, even though soil moisture was not a limiting factor in this swamp meadow ecosystem. We observed that warming did not significantly affect soil extractable N or P during the period of peak growth, but decreased both N and P concentrations in the leaves of dominant plant species, likely caused by accelerated plant senescence in the warmed plots. The attenuated warming effect on CO 2 assimilation during the late growing season was associated with lowered leaf N and P concentrations. These findings suggest that warming-mediated nutrient changes may not always benefit ecosystem C uptake in permafrost regions, making our ability to predict the C balance in these warming-sensitive ecosystems more challenging than previously thought. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

Experimental warming increased soil nitrogen sink in the Tibetan permafrost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ruiying; Wang, Genxu; Yang, Yuanhe; Chen, Xiaopeng

2017-07-01

In permafrost soil, warming regulates the nitrogen (N) cycle either by stimulating N transformation or by enhancing cryoturbation, the mixture of soil layers due to repeated freeze thaw. Here N isotopic values (δ15N) of plants and the soil were investigated in a 7 year warming experiment in a permafrost-affected alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The results revealed that warming significantly decreased the δ15N in the plant (aboveground and belowground parts) and different soil fractions (clay and silt fraction, aggregate, and bulk soil). The decreased soil δ15N was associated with an increase in soil N stock due to greater N fixation. The incremental N retention in plants and soil mineral-associated fractions from warming resulted in a decrease in soil inorganic N, which constrains the role of nitrification/denitrification in soil δ15N, suggesting a restrained rather than an open N cycle. Furthermore, enhanced cryoturbation under warming, identified by a downward redistribution of 137Cs into deeper layers, promoted N protection from transformation. Overall, the decrease in soil δ15N indicated higher rates of N input through fixation relative to N loss through nitrification and denitrification in permafrost-affected ecosystems under warming conditions.

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

PubMed

Reisinger, Andy; Clark, Harry

2018-04-01

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%-12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO 2 . Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle-climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions now and in future, and to CO 2 from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO 2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non-CO 2 livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO 2 emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non-CO 2 emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal. © 2017 John

First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

2010-09-01

Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

Additive Manufacturing: Which DLA-Managed Legacy Parts are Potential AM Candidates

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

R G ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING : WHICH DLA-MANAGED LEGACY PARTS ARE POTENTIAL AM CANDIDATES? REPORT DL501T1 J UL Y 2016...L Y 2 0 1 6 ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING : WHICH DLA-MANAGED LEGACY PARTS ARE POTENTIAL AM CANDIDATES? REPORT DL501T1 Thomas K . Pa rk s...DESIGNATED BY OTHER OFFICIAL DOCUMENTATION. LMI © 2016. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. iii Additive Manufacturing : Which DLA-Managed Legacy Parts Are

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

The effects of warmed intravenous fluids, combined warming (warmed intravenous fluids with humid-warm oxygen), and pethidine on the severity of shivering in general anesthesia patients in the recovery room

PubMed Central

Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya

2015-01-01

Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

2009-01-01

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral.

PubMed

Matz, Mikhail V; Treml, Eric A; Aglyamova, Galina V; Bay, Line K

2018-04-01

Can genetic adaptation in reef-building corals keep pace with the current rate of sea surface warming? Here we combine population genomics, biophysical modeling, and evolutionary simulations to predict future adaptation of the common coral Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Genomics-derived migration rates were high (0.1-1% of immigrants per generation across half the latitudinal range of the GBR) and closely matched the biophysical model of larval dispersal. Both genetic and biophysical models indicated the prevalence of southward migration along the GBR that would facilitate the spread of heat-tolerant alleles to higher latitudes as the climate warms. We developed an individual-based metapopulation model of polygenic adaptation and parameterized it with population sizes and migration rates derived from the genomic analysis. We find that high migration rates do not disrupt local thermal adaptation, and that the resulting standing genetic variation should be sufficient to fuel rapid region-wide adaptation of A. millepora populations to gradual warming over the next 20-50 coral generations (100-250 years). Further adaptation based on novel mutations might also be possible, but this depends on the currently unknown genetic parameters underlying coral thermal tolerance and the rate of warming realized. Despite this capacity for adaptation, our model predicts that coral populations would become increasingly sensitive to random thermal fluctuations such as ENSO cycles or heat waves, which corresponds well with the recent increase in frequency of catastrophic coral bleaching events.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

PubMed Central

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Heat-Wave Effects on Oxygen, Nutrients, and Phytoplankton Can Alter Global Warming Potential of Gases Emitted from a Small Shallow Lake.

PubMed

Bartosiewicz, Maciej; Laurion, Isabelle; Clayer, François; Maranger, Roxane

2016-06-21

Increasing air temperatures may result in stronger lake stratification, potentially altering nutrient and biogenic gas cycling. We assessed the impact of climate forcing by comparing the influence of stratification on oxygen, nutrients, and global-warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gases (the sum of CH4, CO2, and N2O in CO2 equivalents) emitted from a shallow productive lake during an average versus a heat-wave year. Strong stratification during the heat wave was accompanied by an algal bloom and chemically enhanced carbon uptake. Solar energy trapped at the surface created a colder, isolated hypolimnion, resulting in lower ebullition and overall lower GWP during the hotter-than-average year. Furthermore, the dominant CH4 emission pathway shifted from ebullition to diffusion, with CH4 being produced at surprisingly high rates from sediments (1.2-4.1 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Accumulated gases trapped in the hypolimnion during the heat wave resulted in a peak efflux to the atmosphere during fall overturn when 70% of total emissions were released, with littoral zones acting as a hot spot. The impact of climate warming on the GWP of shallow lakes is a more complex interplay of phytoplankton dynamics, emission pathways, thermal structure, and chemical conditions, as well as seasonal and spatial variability, than previously reported.

Hyperactivity in anorexia nervosa: to warm or not to warm. That is the question (a translational research one).

PubMed

Carrera, Olaia; Gutiérrez, Emilio

2018-01-01

In the Editorial 'Is the neglect of exercise in anorexia nervosa research a case of "running out" of ideas or do we need to take a "LEAP" of faith into the future?' these authors express their doubts concerning the suitability of keeping patients warm as a beneficial treatment option in managing excessive activity in anorexia nervosa (AN) patients. The case for warming as an adjunctive treatment for AN patients is based on strong experimental evidence gathered from research on animals with Activity-Based Anorexia (ABA). We posit that the beneficial effect of heat results, at least in part, from heat blocking the vicious cycle that hyperactivity plays on AN. Hyperactivity decreases caloric intake by interfering with feeding and increases energy expenditure through excess motor activity which in turn increases emaciation that further strengthens anorexic thinking.

Effect of a gluteal activation warm-up on explosive exercise performance.

PubMed

Parr, Matt; Price, Phil Db; Cleather, Daniel J

2017-01-01

To evaluate the effect of a gluteal activation warm-up on the performance of an explosive exercise (the high hang pull (HHP)). Seventeen professional rugby union players performed one set of three HHPs (with 80% of their one repetition maximum load) following both a control and activation warm-up. Peak electrical activity of the gluteus maximus and medius was quantified using electromyography (EMG). In addition, the kinematics and kinetics of nine players was also recorded using force plate and motion capture technology. These data were analysed using a previously described musculoskeletal model of the right lower limb in order to provide estimates of the muscular force expressed during the movement. The mean peak EMG activity of the gluteus maximus was significantly lower following the activation warm-up as compared with the control (p<0.05, effect size d=0.30). There were no significant differences in the mean peak estimated forces in gluteus maximus and medius, the quadriceps or hamstrings (p=0.053), although there was a trend towards increased force in gluteus maximus and hamstrings following the activation warm-up. There were no differences between the ground reaction forces following the two warm-ups. This study suggests that a gluteal activation warm-up may facilitate recruitment of the gluteal musculature by potentiating the glutes in such a way that a smaller neural drive evokes the same or greater force production during movement. This could in turn potentially improve movement quality.

Litters of photosynthetically divergent grasses exhibit differential metabolic responses to warming and elevated CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climatic stress induced by warming can alter plant metabolism, leading to changes in litter chemistry that can affect soil carbon cycling. Elevated CO2 could partly mitigate warming induced moisture stress, and the degree of this mitigation may vary with plant functional types. We hypothesized that,...

Accelerated increase in the Arctic tropospheric warming events surpassing stratospheric warming events during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.

2017-04-01

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.

Experimental evaluation of reproductive response to climate warming in an oviparous skink.

PubMed

Lu, Hongliang; Wang, Yong; Tang, Wenqi; DU, Weiguo

2013-06-01

The impact of climate warming on organisms is increasingly being recognized. The experimental evaluation of phenotypically plastic responses to warming is a critical step in understanding the biological effects and adaptive capacity of organisms to future climate warming. Oviparous Scincella modesta live in deeply-shaded habitats and they require low optimal temperatures during embryonic development, which makes them suitable subjects for testing the effects of warming on reproduction. We raised adult females and incubated their eggs under different thermal conditions that mimicked potential climate warming. Female reproduction, embryonic development and hatchling traits were monitored to evaluate the reproductive response to warming. Experimental warming induced females to lay eggs earlier, but it did not affect the developmental stage of embryos at oviposition or the reproductive output. The high temperatures experienced by gravid females during warming treatments reduced the incubation period and increased embryonic mortality. The locomotor performance of hatchlings was not affected by the maternal thermal environment, but it was affected by the warming treatment during embryonic development. Our results suggest that climate warming might have a profound effect on fitness-relevant traits both at embryonic and post-embryonic stages in oviparous lizards. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

PubMed

Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

2010-11-01

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

The Global Warming Hiatus Tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Sun, C.

2015-12-01

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the multidcadal variability in NHT including the recent warming hiatus is tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the NAO is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. The CCSM4 model is employed to investigate possible physical mechanisms. The positive NAO forces the strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and induces a basin-wide uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming that corresponds to the AMO. The SST field exhibits a delayed response to the preceding enhanced AMOC, and shows a pattern similar to the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), with SST warming in the northern North Atlantic and cooling in the southern part. This SST pattern (negative NAT phase) may lead to an atmospheric response that resembles the negative NAO phase, and subsequently the oscillation proceeds, but in the opposite sense. Based on these mechanisms, a simple delayed oscillator model is established to explain the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO. The magnitude of the NAO forcing of the AMOC/AMO and the time delay of the AMOC/AMO feedback are two key parameters of the delayed oscillator. For a given set of parameters, the quasi 60-year cycle of the NAO can be well predicted. This delayed oscillator model is useful for understanding of the oscillatory mechanism of the NAO, which has potential for decadal predictions as well as the interpretation of proxy

Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

PubMed

Keller, Charles F

2007-03-09

In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter

Global Warming And Meltwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratu, S.

2012-04-01

In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of

Mitigating global warming potentials of methane and nitrous oxide gases from rice paddies under different irrigation regimes.

PubMed

Ali, Muhammad Aslam; Hoque, M Anamul; Kim, Pil Joo

2013-04-01

A field experiment was conducted in Bangladesh Agricultural University Farm to investigate the mitigating effects of soil amendments such as calcium carbide, calcium silicate, phosphogypsum, and biochar with urea fertilizer on global warming potentials (GWPs) of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) gases during rice cultivation under continuous and intermittent irrigations. Among the amendments phosphogypsum and silicate fertilizer, being potential source of electron acceptors, decreased maximum level of seasonal CH4 flux by 25-27 % and 32-38 % in continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. Biochar and calcium carbide amendments, acting as nitrification inhibitors, decreased N2O emissions by 36-40 % and 26-30 % under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. The total GWP of CH4 and N2O gases were decreased by 7-27 % and 6-34 % with calcium carbide, phosphogypsum, and silicate fertilizer amendments under continuous and intermittent irrigations, respectively. However, biochar amendments increased overall GWP of CH4 and N2O gases.

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

What are the implications of rapid global warming for landslide-triggered turbidity current activity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clare, Michael; Peter, Talling; James, Hunt

2014-05-01

arithmetic mean recurrence, λ, for the full records (λ=0.007 and 0.0125 Myr). This period of inactivity is coincident with a dramatic carbon isotopic excursion (i.e. warmest part of the IETM) and heavily skews statistical analyses for both records. Dramatic global warming appears to exert a strong control on inhibiting turbidity current activity; whereas the effects of sea level change are not shown to be statistically significant. Rapid global warming is often implicated as a potential landslide trigger, due to dissociation of gas hydrates in response to elevated ocean temperatures. Other studies have suggested that intense global warming may actually be attributed to the atmospheric release of gas hydrates following catastrophic failure of large parts of a continental slope. Either way, a greater intensity of landslide and resultant turbidity current activity would be expected during the IETM; however, our findings are to the contrary. We offer some explanations in relation to potential triggers. Our work suggests that previous rapid global warming at the IETM did not trigger more frequent turbidity currents. This has direct relevance to future assessments relating to landslide-triggered tsunami hazard, and breakage of subsea cables by turbidity currents.

Potential effects of global warming on the distribution of a temperate univoltine insect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Hurd, L.E.

1993-06-01

Poleward migration to remain within temperature tolerance ranges as the earth warms poses a problem for species with limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperate univoltine insect, Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae), is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before killing frost in the fall; too many allow egg hatch prior to killing frost. We combined field observations of dispersal ability with laboratory measurements of the relationship between temperature and maturation rate, and applied these to a global warming model to predict the effect of climate change on regional distribution of this insect by 2100more » A.D. Based on the simplified biological assumptions of our model, T, sinensis would be reduced to local populations in the northern portions and higher elevations of its present broadly contiguous range, and species with similar life histories may face regional or total extinction.« less

Return of warm conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea: Phytoplankton - Fish

PubMed Central

Stabeno, Phyllis J.; Siddon, Elizabeth C.; Andrews, Alex G.; Cooper, Daniel W.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Farley, Edward V.; Harpold, Colleen E.; Heintz, Ron A.; Kimmel, David G.; Sewall, Fletcher F.; Spear, Adam H.; Yasumishii, Ellen C.

2017-01-01

In 2014, the Bering Sea shifted back to warmer ocean temperatures (+2 oC above average), bringing concern for the potential for a new warm stanza and broad biological and ecological cascading effects. In 2015 and 2016 dedicated surveys were executed to study the progression of ocean heating and ecosystem response. We describe ecosystem response to multiple, consecutive years of ocean warming and offer perspective on the broader impacts. Ecosystem changes observed include reduced spring phytoplankton biomass over the southeast Bering Sea shelf relative to the north, lower abundances of large-bodied crustacean zooplankton taxa, and degraded feeding and body condition of age-0 walleye pollock. This suggests poor ecosystem conditions for young pollock production and the risk of significant decline in the number of pollock available to the pollock fishery in 2–3 years. However, we also noted that high quality prey, large copepods and euphausiids, and lower temperatures in the north may have provided a refuge from poor conditions over the southern shelf, potentially buffering the impact of a sequential-year warm stanza on the Bering Sea pollock population. We offer the hypothesis that juvenile (age-0, age-1) pollock may buffer deleterious warm stanza effects by either utilizing high productivity waters associated with the strong, northerly Cold Pool, as a refuge from the warm, low production areas of the southern shelf, or by exploiting alternative prey over the southern shelf. We show that in 2015, the ocean waters influenced by spring sea ice (the Cold Pool) supported robust phytoplankton biomass (spring) comprised of centric diatom chains, a crustacean copepod community comprised of large-bodied taxa (spring, summer), and a large aggregation of midwater fishes, potentially young pollock. In this manner, the Cold Pool may have acted as a trophic refuge in that year. The few age-0 pollock occurring over the southeast shelf consumed high numbers of euphausiids which

Return of warm conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea: Phytoplankton - Fish.

PubMed

Duffy-Anderson, Janet T; Stabeno, Phyllis J; Siddon, Elizabeth C; Andrews, Alex G; Cooper, Daniel W; Eisner, Lisa B; Farley, Edward V; Harpold, Colleen E; Heintz, Ron A; Kimmel, David G; Sewall, Fletcher F; Spear, Adam H; Yasumishii, Ellen C

2017-01-01

In 2014, the Bering Sea shifted back to warmer ocean temperatures (+2 oC above average), bringing concern for the potential for a new warm stanza and broad biological and ecological cascading effects. In 2015 and 2016 dedicated surveys were executed to study the progression of ocean heating and ecosystem response. We describe ecosystem response to multiple, consecutive years of ocean warming and offer perspective on the broader impacts. Ecosystem changes observed include reduced spring phytoplankton biomass over the southeast Bering Sea shelf relative to the north, lower abundances of large-bodied crustacean zooplankton taxa, and degraded feeding and body condition of age-0 walleye pollock. This suggests poor ecosystem conditions for young pollock production and the risk of significant decline in the number of pollock available to the pollock fishery in 2-3 years. However, we also noted that high quality prey, large copepods and euphausiids, and lower temperatures in the north may have provided a refuge from poor conditions over the southern shelf, potentially buffering the impact of a sequential-year warm stanza on the Bering Sea pollock population. We offer the hypothesis that juvenile (age-0, age-1) pollock may buffer deleterious warm stanza effects by either utilizing high productivity waters associated with the strong, northerly Cold Pool, as a refuge from the warm, low production areas of the southern shelf, or by exploiting alternative prey over the southern shelf. We show that in 2015, the ocean waters influenced by spring sea ice (the Cold Pool) supported robust phytoplankton biomass (spring) comprised of centric diatom chains, a crustacean copepod community comprised of large-bodied taxa (spring, summer), and a large aggregation of midwater fishes, potentially young pollock. In this manner, the Cold Pool may have acted as a trophic refuge in that year. The few age-0 pollock occurring over the southeast shelf consumed high numbers of euphausiids which may

Stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manney, G. L.; Zurek, R. W.; O'Neill, A.; Swinbank, R.; Kumer, J. B.; Mergenthaler, J. L.; Roche, A. E.

1994-01-01

Two stratospheric warmings during February and March 1993 are described using United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) analyses, calculated potential vorticity (PV) and diabetic heating, and N2O observed by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). The first warming affected temperatures over a larger region, while the second produced a larger region of reversed zonal winds. Tilted baroclinic zones formed in the temperature field, and the polar vortex tilted westward with height. Narrow tongues of high PV and low N2O were drawn off the polar vortex, and irreversibly mixed. Tongues of material were drawn from low latitudes into the region between the polar vortex and the anticyclone; diabatic descent was also strongest in this region. Increased N2O over a broad region near the edge of the polar vortex indicates the importance of horizontal transport. N2O decreased in the vortex, consistent with enhanced diabatic descent during the warmings.

Vibration exercise as a warm-up modality for deadlift power output.

PubMed

Cochrane, Darryl J; Coley, Karl W; Pritchard, Hayden J; Barnes, Matthew J

2015-04-01

Vibration exercise (VbX) has gained popularity as a warm-up modality to enhance performance in golf, baseball, and sprint cycling, but little is known about the efficacy of using VbX as a warm-up before resistance exercise, such as deadlifting. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of a deadlift (DL)-specific warm-up, VbX warm-up, and Control on DL power output (PO). The DL warm-up (DL-WU) included 10, 8, and 5 repetitions performed at 30, 40, and 50% 1-repetition maximum (1RM), respectively, where the number of repetitions was matched by body-weight squats performed with vibration and without vibration (Control). The warm-up conditions were randomized and performed at least 2 days apart. Peak power (PP), mean power, rate of force development (RFD), and electromyography (EMG) were measured during the concentric phase of 2 consecutive DLs (75% 1RM) at 30 seconds and 2:30 minutes after the warm-up conditions. There was no significant (p > 0.05) main effect or interaction effect between the DL-WU, VbX warm-up, and Control for PP, mean power, RFD, and EMG. Vibration exercise warm-up did not exhibit an ergogenic effect to potentiate muscle activity more than the specific DL-WU and Control. Therefore, DL PO is affected to a similar extent, irrespective of the type of stimuli, when the warm-up is not focused on raising muscle temperature.

Can Geoengineering Effectively Reduce the Land Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; MacMartin, D.; Moore, J. C.; Ji, D.

2017-12-01

Permafrost, defined as ground that remains at or below 0 C for two or more consecutive years, underlies 24% of the land in the Northern Hemisphere. Under recent climate warming, permafrost has begun to thaw, causing changes in ecosystems and impacting northern communities. Using the multiple land model output from the Permafrost Carbon Network and applying 5 commonly used permafrost diagnostic methods, we assess the projected Northern Hemisphere permafrost area under RCP 8.5 scenario. Both the air and soil relative warming change is compared to highlight the soil warming pattern and intensity. Using the multiple Earth System Models output under abrupt 4×CO2, G1, PI-control, G3, G4, and RCP4.5 experiments, a preliminary attempt is also performed to examine the effectiveness of geoengineering schemes on reducing the land warming. Although there is uncertainty in the projected results due to model and method difference, the soil temperature based methods derived permafrost all present an intense decrease by 48% - 68% until 2100. The projected soil temperature by the more physically complicated model shows a different warming pattern compared with the air, which indicates that some potential land process intervene with the land response to atmospheric change. The simulated soil temperature can be effectively cooled down by 2 - 9 degree under G1 compared with abrupt 4×CO2, and by less than 4 degree under G3 and G4 compared with RCP4.5.

Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The

Climate warming promotes species diversity, but with greater taxonomic redundancy, in complex environments

PubMed Central

Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Purschke, Oliver; Ciobanu, Marcel; Cowles, Jane; Isbell, Forest; Wragg, Peter D.; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-01-01

Climate warming is predicted to alter species interactions, which could potentially lead to extinction events. However, there is an ongoing debate whether the effects of warming on biodiversity may be moderated by biodiversity itself. We tested warming effects on soil nematodes, one of the most diverse and abundant metazoans in terrestrial ecosystems, along a gradient of environmental complexity created by a gradient of plant species richness. Warming increased nematode species diversity in complex (16-species mixtures) plant communities (by ~36%) but decreased it in simple (monocultures) plant communities (by ~39%) compared to ambient temperature. Further, warming led to higher levels of taxonomic relatedness in nematode communities across all levels of plant species richness. Our results highlight both the need for maintaining species-rich plant communities to help offset detrimental warming effects and the inability of species-rich plant communities to maintain nematode taxonomic distinctness when warming occur. PMID:28740868

Accelerated Increase in the Arctic Tropospheric Warming Events Surpassing StratosphericWarming Events During Winter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying

2017-04-22

In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

PubMed Central

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

PubMed

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden.

PubMed

Kullman, L

2001-03-01

Climate warming by ca. 0.8 degree C between the late-19th and late-20th century, although with some fluctuations, has forced multispecies elevational tree-limit advance by > 100 m for the principal tree species in the Swedish part of the Scandinavian mountain range. Predominantly, these processes imply growth in height of old-established individuals and less frequently upslope migration of new individuals. After a slight retardation during some cooler decades after 1940, a new active phase of tree-limit advance has occurred with a series of exceptionally mild winters and some warm summers during the 1990s. The magnitude of total 20th century tree-limit rise varies with topoclimate and is mainly confined to wind-sheltered and snow-rich segments of the landscape. Thickening of birch tree stands in the "advance belt" has profoundly altered the general character of the subalpine/low alpine landscape and provides a positive feedback loop for further progressive change and resilience to short-term cooling episodes. All upslope tree-limit shifts and associated landscape transformations during the 20th century have occurred without appreciable time lags, which constitutes knowledge fundamental to the generation of realistic models concerning vegetation responses to potential future warming. The new and elevated pine tree-limit may be the highest during the past 4000 14C years. Thus, it is tentatively inferred that the 20th century climate is unusually warm in a late-Holocene perspective.

Effects of experimental warming of air, soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra

Treesearch

S.M. Natali; E.A.G. Schuur; C. Trucco; C.E. Hicks Pries; K.G. Crummer; A.F. Baron Lopez

2011-01-01

The carbon (C) storage capacity of northern latitude ecosystems may diminish as warming air temperatures increase permafrost thaw and stimulate decomposition of previously frozen soil organic C. However, warming may also enhance plant growth so that photosynthetic carbon dioxide (C02) uptake may, in part, offset respiratory losses. To determine...

Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.

2015-12-01

Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.

A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlton, Andrew J.; Polvani, Lorenza M.; Perlwitz, Judith; Sassi, Fabrizio; Manzini, Elisa; Shibata, Kiyotaka; Pawson, Steven; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rind, David

2007-01-01

The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.

Potentially Extreme Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-Extreme Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, Solomon M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2016-06-01

Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate warms, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to extreme distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild warming scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited.

Seaweed communities in retreat from ocean warming.

PubMed

Wernberg, Thomas; Russell, Bayden D; Thomsen, Mads S; Gurgel, C Frederico D; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Connell, Sean D

2011-11-08

In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20,000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9, 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate warming on net primary productivity in China during 1961-2010.

PubMed

Gu, Fengxue; Zhang, Yuandong; Huang, Mei; Tao, Bo; Guo, Rui; Yan, Changrong

2017-09-01

The response of ecosystems to different magnitudes of climate warming and corresponding precipitation changes during the last few decades may provide an important reference for predicting the magnitude and trajectory of net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, a process-based ecosystem model, Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere (CEVSA), was used to investigate the response of NPP to warming at both national and subregional scales during 1961-2010. The results suggest that a 1.3°C increase in temperature stimulated the positive changing trend in NPP at national scale during the past 50 years. Regardless of the magnitude of temperature increase, warming enhanced the increase in NPP; however, the positive trend of NPP decreased when warming exceeded 2°C. The largest increase in NPP was found in regions where temperature increased by 1-2°C, and this rate of increase also contributed the most to the total increase in NPP in China's terrestrial ecosystems. Decreasing precipitation depressed the positive trend in NPP that was stimulated by warming. In northern China, warming depressed the increasing trend of NPP and warming that was accompanied by decreasing precipitation led to negative changing trends in NPP in large parts of northern China, especially when warming exceeded 2°C. However, warming stimulated the increase in NPP until warming was greater than 2°C, and decreased precipitation helped to increase the NPP in southern China.

Ant-mediated seed dispersal in a warmed world

PubMed Central

Patterson, Courtney M.; Rodriguez-Cabal, Mariano A.; Ribbons, Relena R.; Dunn, Robert R.; Sanders, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

Climate change affects communities both directly and indirectly via changes in interspecific interactions. One such interaction that may be altered under climate change is the ant-plant seed dispersal mutualism common in deciduous forests of eastern North America. As climatic warming alters the abundance and activity levels of ants, the potential exists for shifts in rates of ant-mediated seed dispersal. We used an experimental temperature manipulation at two sites in the eastern US (Harvard Forest in Massachusetts and Duke Forest in North Carolina) to examine the potential impacts of climatic warming on overall rates of seed dispersal (using Asarum canadense seeds) as well as species-specific rates of seed dispersal at the Duke Forest site. We also examined the relationship between ant critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and the mean seed removal temperature for each ant species. We found that seed removal rates did not change as a result of experimental warming at either study site, nor were there any changes in species-specific rates of seed dispersal. There was, however, a positive relationship between CTmax and mean seed removal temperature, whereby species with higher CTmax removed more seeds at hotter temperatures. The temperature at which seeds were removed was influenced by experimental warming as well as diurnal and day-to-day fluctuations in temperature. Taken together, our results suggest that while temperature may play a role in regulating seed removal by ants, ant plant seed-dispersal mutualisms may be more robust to climate change than currently assumed. PMID:24688863

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

1992-10-01

One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

Contributions of endothelial nitric oxide synthase, noradrenaline, and neuropeptide Y to local warming-induced cutaneous vasodilatation in men.

PubMed

Hodges, Gary J; Sparks, Paul A

2013-11-01

We performed a two-part study to determine the roles of endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) and the vasoconstrictor nerves neurotransmitters noradrenaline (NA) and neuropeptide Y (NPY) in the cutaneous vasodilator response to local skin warming. Forearm skin sites were instrumented with intradermal microdialysis fibres, local heaters, and laser-Doppler flow (LDF) probes. Sites were locally heated from 34 to 42°C. LDF was expressed as cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC; LDF/mean arterial pressure). In Part I, we tested whether sympathetic noradrenergic nerves acted via eNOS. In 8 male participants, treatments were as follows: 1) untreated; 2) bretylium tosylate (BT), preventing sympathetic neurotransmitter release; 3) l-NAA to inhibit eNOS; and 4) combined BT+l-NAA. At treated sites, the initial peak response was markedly reduced, and the plateau phase response to 35min of local warming was also reduced (P<0.05), which was not different among those sites (P>0.05). In Part II, we tested whether NA and NPY were involved in the vasodilator response to local warming. In Part IIa, treatments were: 1) untreated; 2) propranolol and yohimbine to antagonize α- and β-receptors; 3) l-NAA; and 4) combined propranolol, yohimbine, and l-NAA. In Part IIb, conditions were: 1) untreated; 2) BIBP to antagonize Y1-receptors; 3) l-NAA; and 4) combined BIBP and l-NAA. All treatments caused a reduction in the initial peak and plateau responses to local skin warming (P<0.05). The results of Part II indicate that both NA and NPY play roles in the cutaneous vasodilator response and their actions are achieved via eNOS. These data indicate that NA and NPY are involved in the initial, rapid rise in skin blood flow at the onset of local skin warming. However, their vasodilator actions in response to local skin warming appears to be manifested through eNOS. © 2013.

Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

2018-02-01

The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

Effect of Common Cryoprotectants on Critical Warming Rates and Ice Formation in Aqueous Solutions

PubMed Central

Hopkins, Jesse B.; Badeau, Ryan; Warkentin, Matthew; Thorne, Robert E.

2012-01-01

Ice formation on warming is of comparable or greater importance to ice formation on cooling in determining survival of cryopreserved samples. Critical warming rates required for ice-free warming of vitrified aqueous solutions of glycerol, dimethyl sulfoxide, ethylene glycol, polyethylene glycol 200 and sucrose have been measured for warming rates of order 10 to 104 K/s. Critical warming rates are typically one to three orders of magnitude larger than critical cooling rates. Warming rates vary strongly with cooling rates, perhaps due to the presence of small ice fractions in nominally vitrified samples. Critical warming and cooling rate data spanning orders of magnitude in rates provide rigorous tests of ice nucleation and growth models and their assumed input parameters. Current models with current best estimates for input parameters provide a reasonable account of critical warming rates for glycerol solutions at high concentrations/low rates, but overestimate both critical warming and cooling rates by orders of magnitude at lower concentrations and larger rates. In vitrification protocols, minimizing concentrations of potentially damaging cryoprotectants while minimizing ice formation will require ultrafast warming rates, as well as fast cooling rates to minimize the required warming rates. PMID:22728046

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Warm-Up Exercises May Not Be So Important for Enhancing Submaximal Running Performance.

PubMed

Takizawa, Kazuki; Yamaguchi, Taichi; Shibata, Keisuke

2018-05-01

Takizawa, K, Yamaguchi, T, and Shibata, K. Warm-up exercises may not be so important for enhancing submaximal running performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(5): 1383-1390, 2018-The purpose of this study was to determine an appropriate warm-up intensity for enhancing performance in submaximal running at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max (it assumes 3,000-5,000 m in track events). Seven trained male university athletes took part in this study (age: 21.3 ± 2.1 years, height: 169.3 ± 4.7 cm, body mass: 58.4 ± 5.6 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 73.33 ± 5.46 ml·kg·min). Each subject ran on a treadmill at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max until exhaustion after 1 of 4 warm-up treatments. The 4 warm-up treatments were no warm-up, 15 minutes running at 60% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, at 70% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, and at 80% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max. The running performance was evaluated by time to exhaustion (TTE). V[Combining Dot Above]O2, and vastus lateralis muscle temperature were also measured. There were no significant differences in TTE among the warm-up exercises (p > 0.05). V[Combining Dot Above]O2 in no warm-up showed slower reaction than the other warm-up exercises. Regarding, the vastus lateralis muscle temperature immediately after warm-up, no warm-up was significantly (p < 0.01) lower compared with the other warm-up exercises. Our results suggested that submaximal running performance was not affected by the presence or absence of a warm-up or by warm-up intensity, although physiological changes occurred.

Warming alters community size structure and ecosystem functioning

PubMed Central

Dossena, Matteo; Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Grey, Jonathan; Montoya, José M.; Perkins, Daniel M.; Trimmer, Mark; Woodward, Guy

2012-01-01

Global warming can affect all levels of biological complexity, though we currently understand least about its potential impact on communities and ecosystems. At the ecosystem level, warming has the capacity to alter the structure of communities and the rates of key ecosystem processes they mediate. Here we assessed the effects of a 4°C rise in temperature on the size structure and taxonomic composition of benthic communities in aquatic mesocosms, and the rates of detrital decomposition they mediated. Warming had no effect on biodiversity, but altered community size structure in two ways. In spring, warmer systems exhibited steeper size spectra driven by declines in total community biomass and the proportion of large organisms. By contrast, in autumn, warmer systems had shallower size spectra driven by elevated total community biomass and a greater proportion of large organisms. Community-level shifts were mirrored by changes in decomposition rates. Temperature-corrected microbial and macrofaunal decomposition rates reflected the shifts in community structure and were strongly correlated with biomass across mesocosms. Our study demonstrates that the 4°C rise in temperature expected by the end of the century has the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems profoundly, as well as the intimate linkages between these levels of ecological organization. PMID:22496185

The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Kjellström, Erik; Chen, Youmin; Hänsler, Andreas; Kupiainen, Marco; Laprise, René; Mariotti, Laura; Fox Maule, Cathrine; van Meijgaard, Erik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Scinocca, John F.; Somot, Samuel

2018-06-01

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models’ agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 °C GWL and strengthening at 2 °C. A consistent difference between 2 °C and 1.5 °C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 °C further warming (from 1.5 °C–2 °C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes.

Global Warming Potential from early phase decomposition of soil organic matter amendments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Silver, W. L.

2015-12-01

Organic matter amendments to soil are widely used as a method of enhancing nutrient availability for crops or grassland. Amendments such as composted manure or greenwaste also have the co-benefits of potentially increasing soil carbon (C) stocks (DeLonge et al., 2013) and diverting organic waste from landfills or manure lagoons. However, application of organic matter amendments can also stimulate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this study we determined how the chemical quality of organic matter amendments affected soil C and N content and GHG emissions during early stage decomposition. California grassland soils were amended with six different amendments of varying C and N content including three composts and three feedstocks (goat and horse bedding and cattle manure). Amendments and soils were incubated in the laboratory for 7 weeks; GHG fluxes were measured weekly. The three feedstocks emitted significantly more GHGs than the composted materials. With the exception of cow manure, N content of the amendment was linearly correlated with global warming potential emitted (R2= 0.66, P <0.0001). C:N ratios were not a significant predictor of GHG emissions. Cow manure stimulated a net loss of C (or C equivalents) in the mineral soil, as expected. However, greenwaste compost also surprisingly resulted in net C losses, while goat bedding, horse bedding, and the other compost were either C neutral or a slight net C sink at the end of the incubation. Ongoing analyses are examining the fate of the C incorporated from the amendment to the soil as occluded or free light fraction, as well as N mineralization rates. Our data suggest that N content of organic matter amendments is a good predictor of initial GHG emissions. The study also indicates that composting greenwaste with N-rich bedding and manure can result in lower GHG emissions and C sequestration compared to the individual uncomposted components.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Rate of warming affects temperature sensitivity of anaerobic peat decomposition and greenhouse gas production.

PubMed

Sihi, Debjani; Inglett, Patrick W; Gerber, Stefan; Inglett, Kanika S

2018-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic carbon mineralization in wetlands remains poorly represented in most climate models and is especially unconstrained for warmer subtropical and tropical systems which account for a large proportion of global methane emissions. Several studies of experimental warming have documented thermal acclimation of soil respiration involving adjustments in microbial physiology or carbon use efficiency (CUE), with an initial decline in CUE with warming followed by a partial recovery in CUE at a later stage. The variable CUE implies that the rate of warming may impact microbial acclimation and the rate of carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) production. Here, we assessed the effects of warming rate on the decomposition of subtropical peats, by applying either a large single-step (10°C within a day) or a slow ramping (0.1°C/day for 100 days) temperature increase. The extent of thermal acclimation was tested by monitoring CO 2 and CH 4 production, CUE, and microbial biomass. Total gaseous C loss, CUE, and MBC were greater in the slow (ramp) warming treatment. However, greater values of CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios lead to a greater global warming potential in the fast (step) warming treatment. The effect of gradual warming on decomposition was more pronounced in recalcitrant and nutrient-limited soils. Stable carbon isotopes of CH 4 and CO 2 further indicated the possibility of different carbon processing pathways under the contrasting warming rates. Different responses in fast vs. slow warming treatment combined with different endpoints may indicate alternate pathways with long-term consequences. Incorporations of experimental results into organic matter decomposition models suggest that parameter uncertainties in CUE and CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios have a larger impact on long-term soil organic carbon and global warming potential than uncertainty in model structure, and shows that particular rates of warming are central to understand the

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short-term and long-term natural soil warming.

PubMed

Leblans, Niki I W; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D; Vicca, Sara; Fu, Yongshuo; Penuelas, Josep; Janssens, Ivan A

2017-11-01

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming-induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground-level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short- and long-term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming-driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high-latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming-induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C-sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate

Fungi regulate response of N2O production to warming and grazing in a Tibetan grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Lei; Wang, Shiping; Xu, Xingliang; Wang, Yanfen; Rui, Yichao; Zhou, Xiaoqi; Shen, Qinhua; Wang, Jinzhi; Jiang, Lili; Luo, Caiyun; Gu, Tianbao; Ma, Wenchao; Chen, Guanyi

2018-03-01

Lack of understanding of the effects of warming and winter grazing on soil fungal contribution to nitrous oxide (N2O) production has limited our ability to predict N2O fluxes under changes in climate and land use management, because soil fungi play an important role in driving terrestrial N cycling. Here, we examined the effects of 10 years' warming and winter grazing on soil N2O emissions potential in an alpine meadow. Our results showed that soil bacteria and fungi contributed 46 % and 54 % to nitrification, and 37 % and 63 % to denitrification, respectively. Neither warming nor winter grazing affected the activity of enzymes responsible for overall nitrification and denitrification. However, warming significantly increased the enzyme activity of bacterial nitrification and denitrification to 53 % and 55 %, respectively. Warming significantly decreased enzyme activity of fungal nitrification and denitrification to 47 % and 45 %, respectively, while winter grazing had no such effect. We conclude that soil fungi could be the main source for N2O production potential in the Tibetan alpine grasslands. Warming and winter grazing may not affect the potential for soil N2O production potential, but climate warming can alter biotic pathways responsible for N2O production. These findings indicate that characterizing how fungal nitrification/denitrification contributes to N2O production, as well as how it responds to environmental and land use changes, can advance our understanding of N cycling. Therefore, our results provide some new insights about ecological controls on N2O production and lead to refine greenhouse gas flux models.

Does increasing active warm-up duration affect afternoon short-term maximal performance during Ramadan?

PubMed

Baklouti, Hana; Aloui, Asma; Chtourou, Hamdi; Briki, Walid; Chaouachi, Anis; Souissi, Nizar

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of active warm-up duration on short-term maximal performance assessed during Ramadan in the afternoon. Twelve healthy active men took part in the study. The experimental design consisted of four test sessions conducted at 5 p.m., before and during Ramadan, either with a 5-minute or a 15-minute warm-up. The warm-up consisted in pedaling at 50% of the power output obtained at the last stage of a submaximal multistage cycling test. During each session, the subjects performed two vertical jump tests (squat jump and counter movement jump) for measurement of vertical jump height followed by a 30-second Wingate test for measurement of peak and mean power. Oral temperature was recorded at rest and after warming-up. Moreover, ratings of perceived exertion were obtained immediately after the Wingate test. Oral temperature was higher before Ramadan than during Ramadan at rest, and was higher after the 15-minute warm-up than the 5-minute warm-up both before and during Ramadan. In addition, vertical jump heights were not significantly different between the two warm-up conditions before and during Ramadan, and were lower during Ramadan than before Ramadan after both warm-up conditions. Peak and mean power were not significantly different between the two warm-up durations before Ramadan, but were significantly higher after the 5-minute warm-up than the 15-minute warm-up during Ramadan. Moreover, peak and mean power were lower during Ramadan than before Ramadan after both warm-up conditions. Furthermore, ratings of perceived exertion were higher after the 15-minute warm-up than the 5-minute warm-up only during Ramadan. The prolonged active warm-up has no effect on vertical jump height but impairs anaerobic power assessed during Ramadan in the afternoon.

Does Increasing Active Warm-Up Duration Affect Afternoon Short-Term Maximal Performance during Ramadan?

PubMed Central

Baklouti, Hana; Aloui, Asma; Chtourou, Hamdi; Briki, Walid; Chaouachi, Anis; Souissi, Nizar

2015-01-01

Aim The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of active warm-up duration on short-term maximal performance assessed during Ramadan in the afternoon. Methods Twelve healthy active men took part in the study. The experimental design consisted of four test sessions conducted at 5 p.m., before and during Ramadan, either with a 5-minute or a 15-minute warm-up. The warm-up consisted in pedaling at 50% of the power output obtained at the last stage of a submaximal multistage cycling test. During each session, the subjects performed two vertical jump tests (squat jump and counter movement jump) for measurement of vertical jump height followed by a 30-second Wingate test for measurement of peak and mean power. Oral temperature was recorded at rest and after warming-up. Moreover, ratings of perceived exertion were obtained immediately after the Wingate test. Results Oral temperature was higher before Ramadan than during Ramadan at rest, and was higher after the 15-minute warm-up than the 5-minute warm-up both before and during Ramadan. In addition, vertical jump heights were not significantly different between the two warm-up conditions before and during Ramadan, and were lower during Ramadan than before Ramadan after both warm-up conditions. Peak and mean power were not significantly different between the two warm-up durations before Ramadan, but were significantly higher after the 5-minute warm-up than the 15-minute warm-up during Ramadan. Moreover, peak and mean power were lower during Ramadan than before Ramadan after both warm-up conditions. Furthermore, ratings of perceived exertion were higher after the 15-minute warm-up than the 5-minute warm-up only during Ramadan. Conclusion The prolonged active warm-up has no effect on vertical jump height but impairs anaerobic power assessed during Ramadan in the afternoon. PMID:25646955

Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

PubMed

Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

2011-01-01

Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

Evaluation of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential during mainstream large-scale aerobic composting.

PubMed

He, Xueqin; Chen, Longjian; Han, Lujia; Liu, Ning; Cui, Ruxiu; Yin, Hongjie; Huang, Guangqun

2017-12-01

This study investigated the effects of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential (GWP) in the large-scale aerobic composting pattern which includes cyclical forced-turning with aeration at the bottom of composting tanks in China. A 55-day large-scale aerobic composting experiment was conducted in two different groups without and with 10% biochar powder addition (by weight). The results show that biochar powder improves the holding ability of oxygen, and the duration time (O 2 >5%) is around 80%. The composting process with above pattern significantly reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emissions compared to the static or turning-only styles. Considering the average GWP of the BC group was 19.82% lower than that of the CK group, it suggests that rational addition of biochar powder has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of turning, improve effectiveness of the oxygen supply, and reduce comprehensive greenhouse effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Early warm-rewarding parenting moderates the genetic contributions to callous-unemotional traits in childhood.

PubMed

Henry, Jeffrey; Dionne, Ginette; Viding, Essi; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E; Boivin, Michel

2018-04-23

Previous gene-environment interaction studies of CU traits have relied on the candidate gene approach, which does not account for the entire genetic load of complex phenotypes. Moreover, these studies have not examined the role of positive environmental factors such as warm/rewarding parenting. The aim of the present study was to determine whether early warm/rewarding parenting moderates the genetic contributions (i.e., heritability) to callous-unemotional (CU) traits at school age. Data were collected in a population sample of 662 twin pairs (Quebec Newborn Twin Study - QNTS). Mothers reported on their warm/rewarding parenting. Teachers assessed children's CU traits. These reports were subjected to twin modeling. Callous-unemotional traits were highly heritable, with the remaining variance accounted for by nonshared environmental factors. Warm/rewarding parenting significantly moderated the role of genes in CU traits; heritability was lower when children received high warm/rewarding parenting than when they were exposed to low warm/rewarding parenting. High warm/rewarding parenting may partly impede the genetic expression of CU traits. Developmental models of CU traits need to account for such gene-environment processes. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Offsetting global warming-induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application.

PubMed

Bamminger, Chris; Poll, Christian; Marhan, Sven

2018-01-01

Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long-term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long-term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high-temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (R s ), and metabolic quotient (qCO 2 ) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO 2 emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N 2 O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N-cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar-induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar-C into soil was estimated to offset warming-induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N 2 O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate impact of beef: an analysis considering multiple time scales and production methods without use of global warming potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Eshel, G.

2015-08-01

An analysis of the climate impact of various forms of beef production is carried out, with a particular eye to the comparison between systems relying primarily on grasses grown in pasture (‘grass-fed’ or ‘pastured’ beef) and systems involving substantial use of manufactured feed requiring significant external inputs in the form of synthetic fertilizer and mechanized agriculture (‘feedlot’ beef). The climate impact is evaluated without employing metrics such as {{CO}}2{{e}} or global warming potentials. The analysis evaluates the impact at all time scales out to 1000 years. It is concluded that certain forms of pastured beef production have substantially lower climate impact than feedlot systems. However, pastured systems that require significant synthetic fertilization, inputs from supplemental feed, or deforestation to create pasture, have substantially greater climate impact at all time scales than the feedlot and dairy-associated systems analyzed. Even the best pastured system analyzed has enough climate impact to justify efforts to limit future growth of beef production, which in any event would be necessary if climate and other ecological concerns were met by a transition to primarily pasture-based systems. Alternate mitigation options are discussed, but barring unforseen technological breakthroughs worldwide consumption at current North American per capita rates appears incompatible with a 2 °C warming target.

Eutrophication and Warming Boost Cyanobacterial Biomass and Microcystins.

PubMed

Lürling, Miquel; van Oosterhout, Frank; Faassen, Elisabeth

2017-02-11

Eutrophication and warming are key drivers of cyanobacterial blooms, but their combined effects on microcystin (MC) concentrations are less studied. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes cyanobacterial abundance in a natural plankton community and that eutrophication enhances cyanobacterial biomass and MC concentrations. We incubated natural seston from a eutrophic pond under normal, high, and extreme temperatures (i.e., 20, 25, and 30 °C) with and without additional nutrients added (eutrophication) mimicking a pulse as could be expected from projected summer storms under climate change. Eutrophication increased algal- and cyanobacterial biomass by 26 and 8 times, respectively, and led to 24 times higher MC concentrations. This effect was augmented with higher temperatures leading to 45 times higher MC concentrations at 25 °C, with 11 times more cyanobacterial chlorophyll- a and 25 times more eukaryote algal chlorophyll- a . At 30 °C, MC concentrations were 42 times higher, with cyanobacterial chlorophyll- a being 17 times and eukaryote algal chlorophyll- a being 24 times higher. In contrast, warming alone did not yield more cyanobacteria or MCs, because the in situ community had already depleted the available nutrient pool. MC per potential MC producing cell declined at higher temperatures under nutrient enrichments, which was confirmed by a controlled experiment with two laboratory strains of Microcystis aeruginosa. Nevertheless, MC concentrations were much higher at the increased temperature and nutrient treatment than under warming alone due to strongly promoted biomass, lifting N-imitation and promotion of potential MC producers like Microcystis . This study exemplifies the vulnerability of eutrophic urban waters to predicted future summer climate change effects that might aggravate cyanobacterial nuisance.

Warm Mix Asphalt

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-17

State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

Global Warming: If You Can't Stand the Heat

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baird, Stephen L.

2005-01-01

Global warming is the progressive, gradual rise of the earth's average surface temperature, thought to be caused in part by increased concentrations of "greenhouse" gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth's temperature has risen by about one degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated…

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Dual mechanisms regulate ecosystem stability under decade-long warming and hay harvest

PubMed Central

Shi, Zheng; Xu, Xia; Souza, Lara; Wilcox, Kevin; Jiang, Lifen; Liang, Junyi; Xia, Jianyang; García-Palacios, Pablo; Luo, Yiqi

2016-01-01

Past global change studies have identified changes in species diversity as a major mechanism regulating temporal stability of production, measured as the ratio of the mean to the standard deviation of community biomass. However, the dominant plant functional group can also strongly determine the temporal stability. Here, in a grassland ecosystem subject to 15 years of experimental warming and hay harvest, we reveal that warming increases while hay harvest decreases temporal stability. This corresponds with the biomass of the dominant C4 functional group being higher under warming and lower under hay harvest. As a secondary mechanism, biodiversity also explains part of the variation in temporal stability of production. Structural equation modelling further shows that warming and hay harvest regulate temporal stability through influencing both temporal mean and variation of production. Our findings demonstrate the joint roles that dominant plant functional group and biodiversity play in regulating the temporal stability of an ecosystem under global change. PMID:27302085

Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo; Zhou, Tianjun

2017-01-01

Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013; however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear. Here, we divided recent decades into the recent hiatus period and the preceding warming period (1983–1998) to investigate the atmospheric footprint. We use a process-resolving analysis method to quantify the contributions of different processes to the total temperature changes. We show that the increasing rate of global mean tropospheric temperature was also reduced during the hiatus period. The decomposed trends due to physical processes, including surface albedo, water vapour, cloud, surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric dynamics, reversed the patterns between the two periods. The changes in atmospheric heat transport are coupled with changes in the surface latent heat flux across the lower troposphere (below approximately 800 hPa) and with cloud-related processes in the upper troposphere (above approximately 600 hPa) and were underpinned by strengthening/weakening Hadley Circulation and Walker Circulation during the warming/hiatus period. This dynamical coupling experienced a phase transition between the two periods, reminding us of the importance of understanding the atmospheric footprint, which constitutes an essential part of internal climate variability. PMID:28084457

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Realizing the Latent Potential in the Part-Time Student Workforce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Carl; Richardson, Mark

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to challenge employers to make the best use of the latent potential of their part-time student workforce and to retain this talent postgraduation. The authors report research which shows that increasing numbers of university students are working part-time alongside their degree studies, while at the same time…

Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview

PubMed Central

Shepherd, John G.; Brewer, Peter G.; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’. PMID:28784707

Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview.

PubMed

Shepherd, John G; Brewer, Peter G; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J

2017-09-13

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world: introduction and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, John G.; Brewer, Peter G.; Oschlies, Andreas; Watson, Andrew J.

2017-08-01

Changes of ocean ventilation rates and deoxygenation are two of the less obvious but important indirect impacts expected as a result of climate change on the oceans. They are expected to occur because of (i) the effects of increased stratification on ocean circulation and hence its ventilation, due to reduced upwelling, deep-water formation and turbulent mixing, (ii) reduced oxygenation through decreased oxygen solubility at higher surface temperature, and (iii) the effects of warming on biological production, respiration and remineralization. The potential socio-economic consequences of reduced oxygen levels on fisheries and ecosystems may be far-reaching and significant. At a Royal Society Discussion Meeting convened to discuss these matters, 12 oral presentations and 23 posters were presented, covering a wide range of the physical, chemical and biological aspects of the issue. Overall, it appears that there are still considerable discrepancies between the observations and model simulations of the relevant processes. Our current understanding of both the causes and consequences of reduced oxygen in the ocean, and our ability to represent them in models are therefore inadequate, and the reasons for this remain unclear. It is too early to say whether or not the socio-economic consequences are likely to be serious. However, the consequences are ecologically, biogeochemically and climatically potentially very significant, and further research on these indirect impacts of climate change via reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the oceans should be accorded a high priority. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Oligocene sea water temperatures offshore Wilkes Land (Antarctica) indicate warm and stable glacial-interglacial variation and show no 'late Oligocene warming'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca

2017-04-01

At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

2016-05-01

Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-09

using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of

Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire.

PubMed

Camac, James S; Williams, Richard J; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Hoffmann, Ary A; Vesk, Peter A

2017-08-01

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity and woody plant encroachment in arctic and alpine landscapes. However, the extent to which these increases interact to affect the structure, function and composition of alpine ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we use field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine how warming and fire affect recruitment, seedling growth and seedling survival in four dominant Australian alpine shrubs. We found that fire increased establishment of shrub seedlings by as much as 33-fold. Experimental warming also doubled growth rates of tall shrub seedlings and could potentially increase their survival. By contrast, warming had no effect on shrub recruitment, postfire tussock regeneration, or how tussock grass affected shrub seedling growth and survival. These findings indicate that warming, coupled with more frequent or severe fires, will likely result in an increase in the cover and abundance of evergreen shrubs. Given that shrubs are one of the most flammable components in alpine and tundra environments, warming is likely to strengthen an existing feedback between woody species abundance and fire in these ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Conceptional Considerations to Energy Balance and Global Warming Potential of Soil Bioengineering Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Thannen, Magdalena; Paratscha, Roman; Smutny, Roman; Lampalzer, Thomas; Strauss, Alfred; Rauch, Hans Peter

2016-04-01

Nowadays there is a high demand on engineering solutions considering not only technical aspects but also ecological and aesthetic values. In this context soil bioengineering techniques are often used as standalone solutions or in combination with conventional engineering structures. It is a construction technique that uses biological components for hydraulic and civil engineering solutions. In general it pursues the same objectives as conventional civil engineering structures. Currently the used assessment methods for soil bioengineering structures are referencing technically, ecologically and socio-economically. In a modern engineering approach additionally, environmental impacts and potential added values should be considered. The research project E-Protect aims at developing Environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models for this special field of alpine protective constructions. Both, the Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) and the Global Warming Potential (GWP) should be considered in an Environmental LCA over the whole life cycle of an engineering structure. The life cycle itself can be divided into three phases: the construction phase, the use phase and the end of life phase. The paper represents a concept to apply an Environmental LCA model for soil bioengineering structures. Beside the construction phase of these structures particular attention will be given to the use phase. It is not only important in terms of engineering effects but also plays an important role for positive carbon footprint due to the growing plants of soil bioengineering structures in contrast to conventional structures. Innovative Environmental LCA models will be applied to soil bioengineering structures which provide a new transparency for the responsible planners and stakeholders, by pointing out the total consumption of resources in all construction phases and components.

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.

PubMed

Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-11-29

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

PubMed Central

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming. PMID:27849609

Are Sierran Lakes Warming as a Result of Climate Change? The Effects of Climate Warming and Variation in Precipitation on Water Temperature in a Snowmelt-Dominated Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadro, S.; Melack, J. M.; Sickman, J. O.; Skeen, K.

2016-12-01

Water temperature regulates a broad range of fundamental ecosystem processes in lakes. While climate can be an important factor regulating lake temperatures, heterogeneity in the warming response of lakes is large, and variation in precipitation is rarely considered. We analyzed three decades of climate and water temperature data from a high-elevation catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California to illustrate the magnitude of warming taking place during different seasons and the role of precipitation in regulating lake temperatures. Significant climate warming trends were evident during all seasons except spring. Nighttime rates of climate warming were approximately 25% higher than daytime rates. Spatial patterns in warming were elevation dependent, with rates of temperature increase higher at sites above 2800 m.a.s.l. than below. Although interannual variation in snow deposition was high, the frequency and severity of recent droughts has contributed to a significant 3.4 mm year -1 decline in snow water equivalent over the last century. Snow accumulation, more than any other climate factor, regulated lake temperature; 94% of variation in summer lake temperature was regulated by precipitation as snow. For every 100 mm decrease in snow water equivalent there was a 0.62 ° increase in lake temperature. Drought years amplify warming in lakes by reducing the role of cold spring meltwaters in lake energy budgets and prolonging the ice-free period during which lakes warm. The combination of declining winter snowpack and warming air temperatures has the capacity to amplify the effect of climate warming on lake temperatures during drought years. Interactions among climatic factors need to be considered when evaluating ecosystem level effects, especially in mountain regions. For mountain lakes already affected by drought, continued climate warming during spring and autumn has the greatest potential to impact mean lake temperatures.

Liquid Film Migration in Warm Formed Aluminum Brazing Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benoit, M. J.; Whitney, M. A.; Wells, M. A.; Jin, H.; Winkler, S.

2017-10-01

Warm forming has previously proven to be a promising manufacturing route to improve formability of Al brazing sheets used in automotive heat exchanger production; however, the impact of warm forming on subsequent brazing has not previously been studied. In particular, the interaction between liquid clad and solid core alloys during brazing through the process of liquid film migration (LFM) requires further understanding. Al brazing sheet comprised of an AA3003 core and AA4045 clad alloy, supplied in O and H24 tempers, was stretched between 0 and 12 pct strain, at room temperature and 523K (250 °C), to simulate warm forming. Brazeability was predicted through thermal and microstructure analysis. The rate of solid-liquid interactions was quantified using thermal analysis, while microstructure analysis was used to investigate the opposing processes of LFM and core alloy recrystallization during brazing. In general, liquid clad was consumed relatively rapidly and LFM occurred in forming conditions where the core alloy did not recrystallize during brazing. The results showed that warm forming could potentially impair brazeability of O temper sheet by extending the regime over which LFM occurs during brazing. No change in microstructure or thermal data was found for H24 sheet when the forming temperature was increased, and thus warm forming was not predicted to adversely affect the brazing performance of H24 sheet.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patz, J.

1996-12-31

Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectlymore » contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.« less

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing.

PubMed

2013-08-22

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

WAIS Divide Project Members,; Fudge, T. J.; Steig, Eric J.; Markle, Bradley R.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Ding, Qinghua; Taylor, Kendrick C.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Brook, Edward J.; Sowers, Todd; White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Cheng, Hai; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Edwards, Jon S.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Edwards, Ross; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, David; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Johnson, Jay; Hargreaves, Geoffrey; Lee, James E.; Maselli, Olivia J.; Mason, William; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter; Orsi, Anais J.; Popp, Trevor J.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Sigl, Michael; Spencer, Matthew K.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Wang, Xianfeng; Wong, Gifford J.

2013-01-01

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes.

Warm Up to a Good Sound

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tovey, David C.

1977-01-01

Most choral directors in schools today have been exposed to a variety of warm-up procedures. Yet, many do not use the warm-up time effectively as possible. Considers the factors appropriate to a warm-up exercise and three basic warm-up categories. (Author/RK)

[Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

PubMed

Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

2014-12-01

The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

strengthened snow-melt mainly over the mid-elevation region. Under continuing warming and predicted intensified precipitation extremes in the coming century, the severity of floods can become much more disastrous and potentially shift from the north (where the Oroville Dam spillway emergency occurred this February) to the central and south SN regions.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important

Committed warming inferred from observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert

2017-09-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.

Southern limit of the Western South Atlantic mangroves: Assessment of the potential effects of global warming from a biogeographical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Mário Luiz Gomes; Estrada, Gustavo Calderucio Duque; Fernandez, Viviane; Tognella, Mônica Maria Pereira

2012-04-01

The objective of the present study was to determine the exact location of the latitudinal limit of western South Atlantic mangroves, and to describe how these forests develop at this limit; as well as to analyze the potential responses of these communities to global warming. The study was carried out along the coast of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Specific studies on mangrove structure were carried out in the Santo Antônio Lagoon (28°28'34″S; 48°51'40″W). The coastline of Santa Catarina was surveyed for the occurrence of mangrove species. In the mangrove located at the southernmost distributional limit, the forest structure was characterized. Mean height and diameter, trunks density and basal area were calculated. Climatic and oceanographic factors controlling the occurrence and development of the mangrove forests at their latitudinal limit were analyzed, as well as the possible changes of this limit based on global warming scenarios. The results confirmed that the Santo Antônio Lagoon is the southern limit of the western South Atlantic mangroves. At this limit, the mangrove forests show a low degree of development, defined by low mean diameter and height, and high trunks density and trunks/tree ratio. The observed structural pattern and the local alternation of these forests with salt marsh species are typical of mangrove forests at their latitudinal limits. The absence of mangroves south of Laguna and forest structure at the latitudinal limit are controlled by rigorous climate and oceanographic characteristics. In response to the planetary warming process, we expect that mangroves will expand southward, as a consequence of an increase in air and ocean surface temperatures, a reduction in the incidence of frosts, an increased influence of the Brazil Current and a decreased influence of the Falkland Current, and the availability of sheltered estuarine systems for the establishment of new mangroves.

More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Huw J.; Meijers, Andrew J. S.; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

2017-10-01

The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica's endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

Field and laboratory investigation of warm mix asphalt in Texas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-07-01

During the first half of this research study, TxDOT had only placed 1000 tons of warm mix asphalt : (WMA) as part of a demonstration project. By the end of this three year study, TxDOT had placed more : than 1,000,000 tons of WMA and allowed its use ...

Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.

1997-12-31

The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less

Contrasting growth responses of dominant peatland plants to warming and vegetation composition.

PubMed

Walker, Tom N; Ward, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J; Bardgett, Richard D

2015-05-01

There is growing recognition that changes in vegetation composition can strongly influence peatland carbon cycling, with potential feedbacks to future climate. Nevertheless, despite accelerated climate and vegetation change in this ecosystem, the growth responses of peatland plant species to combined warming and vegetation change are unknown. Here, we used a field warming and vegetation removal experiment to test the hypothesis that dominant species from the three plant functional types present (dwarf-shrubs: Calluna vulgaris; graminoids: Eriophorum vaginatum; bryophytes: Sphagnum capillifolium) contrast in their growth responses to warming and the presence or absence of other plant functional types. Warming was accomplished using open top chambers, which raised air temperature by approximately 0.35 °C, and we measured air and soil microclimate as potential mechanisms through which both experimental factors could influence growth. We found that only Calluna growth increased with experimental warming (by 20%), whereas the presence of dwarf-shrubs and bryophytes increased growth of Sphagnum (46%) and Eriophorum (20%), respectively. Sphagnum growth was also negatively related to soil temperature, which was lower when dwarf-shrubs were present. Dwarf-shrubs may therefore promote Sphagnum growth by cooling the peat surface. Conversely, the effect of bryophyte presence on Eriophorum growth was not related to any change in microclimate, suggesting other factors play a role. In conclusion, our findings reveal contrasting abiotic and biotic controls over dominant peatland plant growth, suggesting that community composition and carbon cycling could be modified by simultaneous climate and vegetation change.

Military Implications of Global Warming.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas

PubMed Central

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Trappmann, D.; Madrigal-González, J.; Eckert, N.; Stoffel, M.

2018-01-01

Ongoing climate warming has been demonstrated to impact the cryosphere in the Indian Himalayas, with substantial consequences for the risk of disasters, human well-being, and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present evidence that the warming observed in recent decades has been accompanied by increased snow avalanche frequency in the Western Indian Himalayas. Using dendrogeomorphic techniques, we reconstruct the longest time series (150 y) of the occurrence and runout distances of snow avalanches that is currently available for the Himalayas. We apply a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to demonstrate linkages between climate warming and the observed increase in the incidence of snow avalanches. Warming air temperatures in winter and early spring have indeed favored the wetting of snow and the formation of wet snow avalanches, which are now able to reach down to subalpine slopes, where they have high potential to cause damage. These findings contradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity, and have major implications for the Western Himalayan region, an area where human pressure is constantly increasing. Specifically, increasing traffic on a steadily expanding road network is calling for an immediate design of risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to enhance climate change adaption in the wider study region. PMID:29535224

Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming.

PubMed

Mercer, David

2018-02-01

A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Absolute infrared intensities for F-113 and F-114 and an assessment of their greenhouse warming potential relative to other chlorofluorocarbons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Jerry D.; Stephens, Robert D.

1988-03-01

The literature concerning the "greenhouse" warming potentials of Chlorofluorocarbons F-11, F-12, F-22, F-113, F-114, F-134a, and F-142b is reviewed. Additionally, infrared intensities are reported for each of the fundamental absorption bands of F-113 (CF2ClCFCl2) and F-114 (CF2ClCF2Cl) in the region between 8 and 20 μm. The measurements were made with a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer operated at 0.04 cm-1 apodized resolution. The total intensities measured for this region were 4905 cm-2 atm-1 for F-113 and 6064 cm-2 atm-1 for F-114, compared to a total intensity of 3404 cm-2 atm-1 for F-12 (CF2Cl2) in the same region. On the basis of these infrared intensities and the atmospheric lifetimes of F-113 and of F-114 relative to F-12, and on a per unit mass basis, F-113 and F-114 are about 0.8 and 1.9 times as effective, respectively, as F-12 in the "greenhouse" warming of the Earth.

An assessment by calorimetric calculations of the potential thermal benefit of warming and humidification of insufflated carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Roth, Jonathan V; Sea, Stephanie

2014-06-01

Heat transfer from a patient to warm and humidify insufflated carbon dioxide (CO2) during laparoscopic surgery may contribute to perioperative hypothermia. The magnitude of this effect was calculated using calorimetric calculations. Warming to 37°C and humidifying to 100%, each 100 L of insufflated CO2 would prevent a heat transfer of 3220 calories, which would result in a decrease of temperature by 0.06°C in a 70 kg patient after total body distribution of heat. We conclude that the thermal benefit of warming and humidifying insufflated CO2 is minor, particularly in comparison with other effective and inexpensive perioperative technologies, some of which are not always used out could easily be used. The decision to use heating and humidification of insufflated CO2 should be based on its other risks, benefits, and costs.

Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.

PubMed

Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Yu, Xichen; Hang, Yuhao

2017-01-01

Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH 4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N 2 O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH 4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH 4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH 4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N 2 O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE PAGES

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...

2014-12-02

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming

One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

PubMed

Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

2017-05-01

Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warm-up Practices in Elite Boxing Athletes: Impact on Power Output.

PubMed

Cunniffe, Brian; Ellison, Mark; Loosemore, Mike; Cardinale, Marco

2017-01-01

Cunniffe, B, Ellison, M, Loosemore, M, and Cardinale, M. Warm-up practices in elite boxing athletes: Iimpact on power output. J Strength Cond Res 31(1): 95-105, 2017-This study evaluated the performance impact of routine warm-up strategies in elite Olympic amateur boxing athletes and physiological implications of the time gap (GAP) between warm-up and boxing activity. Six male boxers were assessed while performing standardized prefight warm-up routines. Core and skin temperature measurements (Tcore and Tskin), heart rate, and upper- and lower-body power output (PO) were assessed before and after warm-up, during a 25-minutes GAP and after 3 × 2 minutes rounds of sparring. Reflected temperature (Tc) was also determined using high-resolution thermal images at fixed time-points to explore avenues for heat loss. Despite individual differences in warm-up duration (range 7.4-18.5 minutes), increases in Tcore and Tskin occurred (p ≤ 0.05). Corresponding increases (4.8%; p ≤ 0.05) in countermovement jump (CMJ) height and upward-rightward shifts in upper-body force-velocity and power-velocity curves were observed. Athletes remained inactive during the 25-minutes GAP with a gradual and significant increase in Tc occurring by the end of GAP suggesting the likelihood of heat loss. Decreases in CMJ height and upper-body PO were observed after 15 minutes and 25 minutes GAP (p ≤ 0.05). By the end of GAP period, all performance variables had returned to pre-warm-up values. Results suggest routine warm-ups undertaken by elite boxers have acute effects on power-generating capacity. Gradual decreases in performance variables are evident with inactivity and seem related to alterations in body temperature. Considering the constraints of major competitions and time spent in air conditioned holding areas before fights, practitioners should be aware of the potential of nullifying the warm-up effects.

Assessing the magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming of a shallow aquifer: example from Virginia Beach, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eggleston, John R.; McCoy, Kurt J.

2015-01-01

Groundwater temperature measurements in a shallow coastal aquifer in Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA, suggest groundwater warming of +4.1 °C relative to deeper geothermal gradients. Observed warming is related to timing and depth of influence of two potential thermal drivers—atmospheric temperature increases and urbanization. Results indicate that up to 30 % of groundwater warming at the water table can be attributed to atmospheric warming while up to 70 % of warming can be attributed to urbanization. Groundwater temperature readings to 30-m depth correlate positively with percentage of impervious cover and negatively with percentage of tree canopy cover; thus, these two land-use metrics explain up to 70 % of warming at the water table. Analytical and numerical modeling results indicate that an average vertical groundwater temperature profile for the study area, constructed from repeat measurement at 11 locations over 15 months, is consistent with the timing of land-use change over the past century in Virginia Beach. The magnitude of human-induced warming at the water table (+4.1 °C) is twice the current seasonal temperature variation, indicating the potential for ecological impacts on wetlands and estuaries receiving groundwater discharge from shallow aquifers.

Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

PubMed

Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

2014-05-01

To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation benefits intraoperative core temperature during laparoscopic surgery: A meta‐analysis

PubMed Central

Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard

2016-01-01

Abstract Background Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta‐analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO2 during laparoscopy. Methods An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO2 or cold, dry CO2. The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. Results The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO2 insufflation. Conclusion Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO2. PMID:27976517

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

2014-12-01

It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6-30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.

Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Zhao, Hongfang; Piao, Shilong; Peaucelle, Marc; Peng, Shushi; Zhou, Guiyun; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Mengtian; Menzel, Annette; Peñuelas, Josep; Song, Yang; Vitasse, Yann; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Janssens, Ivan A

2015-10-01

Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.

Warm inflationary model in loop quantum cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrera, Ramon

A warm inflationary universe model in loop quantum cosmology is studied. In general we discuss the condition of inflation in this framework. By using a chaotic potential, V({phi}){proportional_to}{phi}{sup 2}, we develop a model where the dissipation coefficient {Gamma}={Gamma}{sub 0}=constant. We use recent astronomical observations for constraining the parameters appearing in our model.

Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.

PubMed

Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Frölicher, Thomas L

2016-12-23

Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The Differential Warming Response of Britain's Rivers (1982-2011).

PubMed

Jonkers, Art R T; Sharkey, Kieran J

2016-01-01

River water temperature is a hydrological feature primarily controlled by topographical, meteorological, climatological, and anthropogenic factors. For Britain, the study of freshwater temperatures has focussed mainly on observations made in England and Wales; similar comprehensive data sets for Scotland are currently unavailable. Here we present a model for the whole of mainland Britain over three recent decades (1982-2011) that incorporates geographical extrapolation to Scotland. The model estimates daily mean freshwater temperature for every river segment and for any day in the studied period, based upon physico-geographical features, daily mean air and sea temperatures, and available freshwater temperature measurements. We also extrapolate the model temporally to predict future warming of Britain's rivers given current observed trends. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal diversity of British freshwater temperatures and warming rates. Over the studied period, Britain's rivers had a mean temperature of 9.84°C and experienced a mean warming of +0.22°C per decade, with lower rates for segments near lakes and in coastal regions. Model results indicate April as the fastest-warming month (+0.63°C per decade on average), and show that most rivers spend on average ever more days of the year at temperatures exceeding 10°C, a critical threshold for several fish pathogens. Our results also identify exceptional warming in parts of the Scottish Highlands (in April and September) and pervasive cooling episodes, in December throughout Britain and in July in the southwest of England (in Wales, Cornwall, Devon, and Dorset). This regional heterogeneity in rates of change has ramifications for current and future water quality, aquatic ecosystems, as well as for the spread of waterborne diseases.

Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

PubMed

Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

2016-11-01

Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Warm Up and Cool Down: Reduce Risk of Injury and Improve Athletic Performance

MedlinePlus

... leisure laps for five to 10 minutes. If stretching exercises are part of your workout routine, it's ... down phase, when your muscles are already warm. Stretching can improve range of motion about a joint ...

Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year.

PubMed

Steig, Eric J; Schneider, David P; Rutherford, Scott D; Mann, Michael E; Comiso, Josefino C; Shindell, Drew T

2009-01-22

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades. This pattern of temperature change has been attributed to the increased strength of the circumpolar westerlies, largely in response to changes in stratospheric ozone. This picture, however, is substantially incomplete owing to the sparseness and short duration of the observations. Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring. Although this is partly offset by autumn cooling in East Antarctica, the continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend is positive. Simulations using a general circulation model reproduce the essential features of the spatial pattern and the long-term trend, and we suggest that neither can be attributed directly to increases in the strength of the westerlies. Instead, regional changes in atmospheric circulation and associated changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice are required to explain the enhanced warming in West Antarctica.

Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

2014-06-03

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

2014-01-01

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

PubMed Central

Hollister, Robert D; May, Jeremy L; Kremers, Kelseyann S; Tweedie, Craig E; Oberbauer, Steven F; Liebig, Jennifer A; Botting, Timothy F; Barrett, Robert T; Gregory, Jessica L

2015-01-01

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. PMID:26140204

Experimental soil warming shifts the fungal community composition at the alpine treeline.

PubMed

Solly, Emily F; Lindahl, Björn D; Dawes, Melissa A; Peter, Martina; Souza, Rômulo C; Rixen, Christian; Hagedorn, Frank

2017-07-01

Increased CO 2 emissions and global warming may alter the composition of fungal communities through the removal of temperature limitation in the plant-soil system, faster nitrogen (N) cycling and changes in the carbon (C) allocation of host plants to the rhizosphere. At a Swiss treeline featuring Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata, the effects of multiple years of CO 2 enrichment and experimental soil warming on the fungal community composition in the organic horizons were analysed using 454-pyrosequencing of ITS2 amplicons. Sporocarp production and colonization of ectomycorrhizal root tips were investigated in parallel. Fungal community composition was significantly altered by soil warming, whereas CO 2 enrichment had little effect. Tree species influenced fungal community composition and the magnitude of the warming responses. The abundance of ectomycorrhizal fungal taxa was positively correlated with N availability, and ectomycorrhizal taxa specialized for conditions of high N availability proliferated with warming, corresponding to considerable increases in inorganic N in warmed soils. Traits related to N utilization are important in determining the responses of ectomycorrhizal fungi to warming in N-poor cold ecosystems. Shifts in the overall fungal community composition in response to higher temperatures may alter fungal-driven processes with potential feedbacks on ecosystem N cycling and C storage at the alpine treeline. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Structural Evolution of a Warm Frontal Precipitation Band During GCPEx

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Naeger, Aaron; Molthan, Andrew; Nesbitt, Stephen

2015-01-01

A warm frontal precipitation band developed over a few hours 50-100 km to the north of a surface warm front. The 3-km WRF was able to realistically simulate band development, although the model is somewhat too weak. Band genesis was associated with weak frontogenesis (deformation) in the presence of weak potential and conditional instability feeding into the band region, while it was closer to moist neutral within the band. As the band matured, frontogenesis increased, while the stability gradually increased in the banding region. Cloud top generating cells were prevalent, but not in WRF (too stable). The band decayed as the stability increased upstream and the frontogenesis (deformation) with the warm front weakened. The WRF may have been too weak and short-lived with the band because too stable and forcing too weak (some micro issues as well).

Under the weather?-The direct effects of climate warming on a threatened desert lizard are mediated by their activity phase and burrow system.

PubMed

Moore, Danae; Stow, Adam; Kearney, Michael Ray

2018-05-01

For ectotherms such as lizards, the importance of behavioural thermoregulation in avoiding thermal extremes is well-established and is increasingly acknowledged in modern studies of climate warming and its impacts. Less appreciated and understood are the buffering roles of retreat sites and activity phase, in part because of logistical challenges of studying below-ground activity. Burrowing and nocturnal activity are key behavioural adaptations that have enabled a diverse range of reptiles to survive extreme environmental temperatures within hot desert regions. Yet, the direct impact of recent global warming on activity potential has been hypothesised to have caused extinctions in desert lizards, including the Australian arid zone skink Liopholis kintorei. We test the relevance of this hypothesis through a detailed characterisation of the above- and below-ground thermal and hydric microclimates available to, and used by, L. kintorei. We integrate operative temperatures with observed body temperatures to construct daily activity budgets, including the inference of subterranean behaviour. We then assess the likelihood that contemporary and future local extinctions in this species, and those of similar burrowing habits, could be explained by the direct effects of warming on its activity budget and exposure to thermal extremes. We found that L. kintorei spent only 4% of its time active on the surface, primarily at dusk, and that overall potential surface activity will be increased, not restricted, with climate warming. The burrow system provides an exceptional buffer to current and future maximum extremes of temperature (≈40°C reduction from potential surface temperatures), and desiccation (burrows near 100% humidity). Therefore, any climate warming impacts on this species are likely to be indirect. Our findings reflect the general buffering capacity of underground microclimates, therefore, our conclusions for L. kintorei are more generally applicable to

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Mark Torre Jorgenson; Bruce G. Marcot; David K. Swanson; Janet C. Jorgenson; Anthony R. DeGange

2015-01-01

Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time...

IRETHERM: Magnetotelluric Assessment of Geothermal Energy Potential of Hydrothermal Aquifer, Radiothermal Granite and Warm Spring Targets in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Alan G.; Muller, Mark; Fullea, Javier; Vozar, Jan; Blake, Sarah; Delhaye, Robert; Farrell, Thomas

2013-04-01

IRETHERM (www.iretherm.ie) is an academic-government-industry, collaborative research project, funded by Science Foundation Ireland, with the overarching objective of developing a holistic understanding of Ireland's low-enthalpy geothermal energy potential through integrated modelling of new and existing geophysical and geological data. With the exception of Permo-Triassic basins in Northern Ireland, hosting geothermal aquifers of promising but currently poorly-defined potential, rocks with high primary porosity have not been identified elsewhere. Whether any major Irish shear zones/faults might host a geothermal aquifer at depth is also unknown, although clusters of warm-springs in the vicinity of two major shear zones are promising. IRETHERM's objectives over a four-year period are to: (i) Develop multi-parameter geophysical modelling and interpretation software tools that will enhance our ability to explore for and assess deep aquifers and granitic intrusions. (ii) Model and understand temperature variations in the upper-crust. Firstly, by building a 3-D model of crustal heat-production based on geochemical analysis of surface, borehole and mid- to lower-crustal xenolith samples. Secondly, by modelling, using a fully self-consistent 3-D approach, observed surface heat-flow variation as a function of variation in the structure and thermal properties of the crust and lithosphere, additionally constrained by surface elevation, geoid, gravity, seismic and magnetotelluric (MT) data. (iii) Test a strategic set of eight "type" geothermal targets with a systematic program of electromagnetic surveys (MT, CSEM) across ten target areas. During 2012, IRETHERM collected over 220 MT/AMT sites in the investigation of a range of different geothermal target types. Here we present preliminary electrical resistivity modelling results for each target investigated and discuss the implications of the models for geothermal energy potential: 1. Rathlin Basin The only sedimentary strata

TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.

The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds

FINAL REPORT WIND POWER WARM SPRINGS RESERVATION TRIBAL LANDS DOE GRANT NUMBER DE-FG36-07GO17077 SUBMITTED BY WARM SPRINGS POWER & WATER ENTERPRISES A CORPORATE ENTITY OF THE CONFEDERATED TRIBES OF WARM SPRINGS WARM SPRINGS, OREGON

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jim Manion; Michael Lofting; Wil Sando

2009-03-30

Wind Generation Feasibility Warm Springs Power and Water Enterprises (WSPWE) is a corporate entity owned by the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation, located in central Oregon. The organization is responsible for managing electrical power generation facilities on tribal lands and, as part of its charter, has the responsibility to evaluate and develop renewable energy resources for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs. WSPWE recently completed a multi-year-year wind resource assessment of tribal lands, beginning with the installation of wind monitoring towers on the Mutton Mountains site in 2003, and collection of on-site wind data is ongoing. The studymore » identified the Mutton Mountain site on the northeastern edge of the reservation as a site with sufficient wind resources to support a commercial power project estimated to generate over 226,000 MWh per year. Initial estimates indicate that the first phase of the project would be approximately 79.5 MW of installed capacity. This Phase 2 study expands and builds on the previously conducted Phase 1 Wind Resource Assessment, dated June 30, 2007. In order to fully assess the economic benefits that may accrue to the Tribes through wind energy development at Mutton Mountain, a planning-level opinion of probable cost was performed to define the costs associated with key design and construction aspects of the proposed project. This report defines the Mutton Mountain project costs and economics in sufficient detail to allow the Tribes to either build the project themselves or contract with a developer under the most favorable terms possible for the Tribes.« less

How does whole ecosystem warming of a peatland affect methane production and consumption?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopple, A.; Brunik, K.; Keller, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Woerndle, G.; Zalman, C.; Hanson, P.; Bridgham, S. D.

2017-12-01

Peatlands are among Earth's most important terrestrial ecosystems due to their massive soil carbon (C) stores and significant release of methane (CH4) into the atmosphere. Methane has a sustained-flux global warming potential 45-times greater than carbon dioxide (CO2), and the accuracy of Earth system model projections relies on our mechanistic understanding of peatland CH4 cycling in the context of environmental change. The objective of this study was to determine, under in situ conditions, how heating of the peat profile affects ecosystem-level anaerobic C cycling. We assessed the response of CO2 and CH4 production, as well as the anaerobic oxidation of CH4 (AOM), in a boreal peatland following 13 months of deep peat heating (DPH) and 16 months of subsequent whole-ecosystem warming (surface and deep heating; WEW) as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project in northern Minnesota, USA. The study uses a regression-based experimental design including 5 temperature treatments that warmed the entire 2 m peat profile from 0 to +9 °C above ambient temperature. Soil cores were collected at multiple depths (25-200 cm) from each experimental chamber at the SPRUCE site and anaerobically incubated at in situ temperatures for 1-2 weeks. Methane and CO2 production in surface peat were positively correlated with elevated temperature, but no consistent temperature response was found at depth (75-200 cm) following DPH. However, during WEW, we observed significant increases in both surface and deep peat methanogenesis with increasing temperature. Surface peat had greater CH4 production rates than deeper peat, implying that the increased CH4 emissions observed in the field were largely driven by surface peat warming. The CO2:CH4 ratio was inversely correlated with temperature across all depths following 16 months of WEW, indicating that the entire peat profile is becoming more methanogenic with warming. We also observed AOM throughout

Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.

PubMed

Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A

2014-03-01

Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).

Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.

The Effect of Extratropical Warming Amplification on the Future Tropical Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshimori, M.; Hamano, Y.; Abe-Ouchi, A.

2016-12-01

The Arctic warms much more than the rest of the world under relatively uniform radiative forcing. Recent observations verify this characteristics of global warming. On the other hand, previous studies based on paleo-proxy data and paleo- and idealized numerical experiments have indicated that asymmetric warming between the two hemispheres can impact on the distribution of tropical precipitation. It was suggested diagnostically that the Arctic warming amplification may become responsible for a part of the future precipitation change in the tropics. In the current study, we have conducted several sensitivity experiments that isolate the effect of remote warming on the tropical precipitation using an atmospheric general circulation model with a mixture of prescribed and predicted mixed-layer sea surface conditions, depending of the region. Additional experiments including ocean dynamics will also be presented. In a standard equilibrium experiment of doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (2xCO2), the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude (40-90ºN) warms by about 7ºC and precipitation change occurs mostly in the tropical Pacific (20ºS-20ºN). In the zonal average, the increase in precipitation is larger in the North than the South by about 0.5 mm/day and the peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward by about 1º. Sensitivity experiments were designed to amplify or suppress the Northern Hemisphere mid-high latitude warming to different levels and to allow for the tropics to respond freely to those perturbations. The perturbations of the mid-high latitude warming range from -5ºC to +7ºC from the standard 2xCO2 experiment, and precipitation change range from -160% to +160% relative to the difference between 2xCO2 and control experiments. The peak latitude of precipitation shifted northward from -1.5º to +2.5º, and it was verified that most of the change is contributed by the change in the Hadley circulation, rather than the change in the moisture amount

Evaluation of NASA GEOS-ADAS Modeled Diurnal Warming Through Comparisons to SEVIRI and AMSR2 SST Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.

2018-02-01

An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.

Recent Warming of Lake Kivu

PubMed Central

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A.; Crowe, Sean A.; Hecky, Robert E.

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient. PMID:25295730

Recent warming of lake Kivu.

PubMed

Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

2014-01-01

Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

Warm Handoffs: a Novel Strategy to Improve End-of-Rotation Care Transitions.

PubMed

Saag, Harry S; Chen, Jingjing; Denson, Joshua L; Jones, Simon; Horwitz, Leora; Cocks, Patrick M

2018-01-01

Hospitalized medical patients undergoing transition of care by house staff teams at the end of a ward rotation are associated with an increased risk of mortality, yet best practices surrounding this transition are lacking. To assess the impact of a warm handoff protocol for end-of-rotation care transitions. A large, university-based internal medicine residency using three different training sites. PGY-2 and PGY-3 internal medicine residents. Implementation of a warm handoff protocol whereby the incoming and outgoing residents meet at the hospital to sign out in-person and jointly round at the bedside on sicker patients using a checklist. An eight-question survey completed by 60 of 99 eligible residents demonstrated that 85% of residents perceived warm handoffs to be safer for patients (p < 0.001), while 98% felt warm handoffs improved their knowledge and comfort level of patients on day 1 of an inpatient rotation (p < 0.001) as compared to prior handoff techniques. Finally, 88% felt warm handoffs were worthwhile despite requiring additional time (p < 0.001). A warm handoff protocol represents a novel strategy to potentially mitigate the known risks associated with end-of-rotation care transitions. Additional studies analyzing patient outcomes will be needed to assess the impact of this strategy.

Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

2015-12-01

A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique

Was Early Mars Warmed by CH4?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justh, H. L.; Kasting, J. F.

2001-12-01

Images from the Mariner, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor missions have shown geologic features on the Martian surface that seem to indicate an earlier period of hydrologic activity. Many researchers have suggested that the early Martian climate was more Earth-like with a Ts of 273 K or higher. The presence of liquid water would require a greenhouse effect much larger than needed at present since S0 is 25% lower 3.8 billion years ago when the channels are thought to have formed. Research into the effects of CO2 clouds upon the climate of early Mars have yielded results that would not effectively warm the surface to the temperature needed to account for the presence of liquid water. Forget and Pierrehumbert (Science, 1997) showed that large crystals of CO2 ice in clouds that form in the upper troposphere would produce a strong warming effect. Obtaining mean surface temperatures above 273 K would require 100% cloud cover, a condition that is unrealistic for early Mars. It has also been shown that any reduction in cloud cover makes it difficult to achieve warm Martian surface temperatures except at high pressures. CO2 clouds could also cool the Martian surface if they were low and optically thick. CO2 ice may be hard to nucleate, leading to the formation of very large particles (Glandorf, private communication). CH4 has been suggested as an important greenhouse gas on the early Earth. This has led us to look at CH4 as a potential solution to the early Mars climate issue. To investigate the possible warming effect of CH4, we utilized a modified, one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model that has been used in previous studies of the early Martian climate. New calculations of the effects of CH4 upon the early Martian climate will be presented. The use of CH4 to warm the surface of early Mars does not necessarily imply the presence of life on Mars. Abiotic sources of CH4, such as serpentinization of ultramafic rocks, could supply the concentrations needed to warm

'Soothing the ring of fire': Australian women's and midwives' experiences of using perineal warm packs in the second stage of labour.

PubMed

Dahlen, Hannah G; Homer, Caroline S E; Cooke, Margaret; Upton, Alexis M; Nunn, Rosalie A; Brodrick, Belinda S

2009-04-01

to determine women's and midwives' experiences of using perineal warm packs in the second stage of labour. as part of a randomised controlled trial (Warm Pack Trial), women and midwives were asked to complete questionnaires about the effects of the warm packs on pain, perineal trauma, comfort, feelings of control, satisfaction and intentions for use during future births. two hospitals in Sydney, Australia. a randomised controlled trial was undertaken. In the late second stage of labour, nulliparous women (n=717) giving birth were randomly allocated to having warm packs (n=360) applied to their perineum or standard care (n=357). Standard care was defined as any second stage practice carried out by midwives that did not include the application of warm packs to the perineum. Three hundred and two nulliparous women randomised to receive warm packs (84%) received the treatment. Questionnaires were completed by 266 (88%) women who received warm packs, and 270 (89%) midwives who applied warm packs to these women. warm, moist packs were applied to the perineum in the late second stage of labour. warm packs were highly acceptable to both women and midwives as a means of relieving pain during the late second stage of labour. Almost the same number of women (79.7%) and midwives (80.4%) felt that the warm packs reduced perineal pain during the birth. Both midwives and women were positive about using warm packs in the future. The majority of women (85.7%) said that they would like to use perineal warm packs again for their next birth and would recommend them to friends (86.1%). Likewise, 91% of midwives were positive about using the warm packs, with 92.6% considering using them in the future as part of routine care in the second stage of labour. responses to questionnaires, eliciting experiences of women and midwives involved in the Warm Pack Trial, demonstrated that the practice of applying perineal warm packs in the late second stage of labour was highly acceptable and

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.

PubMed

Mulvaney, Robert; Abram, Nerilie J; Hindmarsh, Richard C A; Arrowsmith, Carol; Fleet, Louise; Triest, Jack; Sime, Louise C; Alemany, Olivier; Foord, Susan

2012-09-06

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Responses of two understory herbs, Maianthemum canadense and Eurybia macrophylla, to experimental forest warming: early emergence is the key to enhanced reproductive output.

PubMed

Jacques, Marie-Hélène; Lapointe, Line; Rice, Karen; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Stefanski, Artur; Reich, Peter B

2015-10-01

Understory herbs might be the most sensitive plant form to global warming in deciduous forests, yet they have been little studied in the context of climate change. A field experiment set up in Minnesota, United States simulated global warming in a forest setting and provided the opportunity to study the responses of Maianthemum canadense and Eurybia macrophylla in their natural environment in interaction with other components of the ecosystem. Effects of +1.7° and +3.4°C treatments on growth, reproduction, phenology, and gas exchange were evaluated along with treatment effects on light, water, and nutrient availability, potential drivers of herb responses. Overall, growth and gas exchanges of these two species were modestly affected by warming. They emerged up to 16 (E. macrophylla) to 17 d (M. canadense) earlier in the heated plots than in control plots, supporting early-season carbon gain under high light conditions before canopy closure. This additional carbon gain in spring likely supported reproduction. Eurybia macrophylla only flowered in the heated plots, and both species had some aspect of reproduction that was highest in the +1.7°C treatment. The reduced reproductive effort in the +3.4°C plots was likely due to reduced soil water availability, counteracting positive effects of warming. Global warming might improve fitness of herbaceous species in deciduous forests, mainly by advancing their spring emergence. However, other impacts of global warming such as drier soils in the summer might partly reduce the carbon gain associated with early emergence. © 2015 Botanical Society of America.

Model validations for low-global warming potential refrigerants in mini-split air-conditioning units

DOE PAGES

Shen, Bo; Shrestha, Som; Abdelaziz, Omar

2016-09-02

To identify low GWP (global warming potential) refrigerants to replace R-22 and R-410A, extensive experimental evaluations were conducted for multiple candidates of refrigerant at the standard test conditions and at high-ambient conditions with outdoor temperature varying from 27.8 C to 55.0 C.. In the study, R-22 was compared to propane (R-290), DR-3, ARM-20B, N-20B and R-444B in a mini-split air conditioning unit originally designed for R-22; R-410A was compared to R-32, DR-55, ARM-71A, L41-2 (R-447A) in a mini-split unit designed for R-410A. To reveal physics behind the measured performance results, thermodynamic properties of the alternative refrigerants were analysed. In addition,more » the experimental data was used to calibrate a physics-based equipment model, i.e. ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). The calibrated model translated the experimental results to key calculated parameters, i.e. compressor efficiencies, refrigerant side two-phase heat transfer coefficients, corresponding to each refrigerant. As a result, these calculated values provide scientific insights on the performance of the alternative refrigerants and are useful for other applications beyond mini-split air conditioning units.« less

Model validations for low-global warming potential refrigerants in mini-split air-conditioning units

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; Shrestha, Som; Abdelaziz, Omar

To identify low GWP (global warming potential) refrigerants to replace R-22 and R-410A, extensive experimental evaluations were conducted for multiple candidates of refrigerant at the standard test conditions and at high-ambient conditions with outdoor temperature varying from 27.8 C to 55.0 C.. In the study, R-22 was compared to propane (R-290), DR-3, ARM-20B, N-20B and R-444B in a mini-split air conditioning unit originally designed for R-22; R-410A was compared to R-32, DR-55, ARM-71A, L41-2 (R-447A) in a mini-split unit designed for R-410A. To reveal physics behind the measured performance results, thermodynamic properties of the alternative refrigerants were analysed. In addition,more » the experimental data was used to calibrate a physics-based equipment model, i.e. ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). The calibrated model translated the experimental results to key calculated parameters, i.e. compressor efficiencies, refrigerant side two-phase heat transfer coefficients, corresponding to each refrigerant. As a result, these calculated values provide scientific insights on the performance of the alternative refrigerants and are useful for other applications beyond mini-split air conditioning units.« less

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S.; Mitton, Jeffry B.

2017-01-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower

Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rydbeck, Adam V.; Jensen, Tommy G.; Nyadjro, Ebenezer S.

2017-05-01

A novel process is identified whereby equatorial Rossby (ER) waves maintain warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies against cooling by processes related to atmospheric convection in the western Indian Ocean. As downwelling ER waves enter the western Indian Ocean, SST anomalies of +0.15°C develop near 60°E. These SST anomalies are hypothesized to stimulate convective onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The upper ocean warming that manifests in response to downwelling ER waves is examined in a mixed layer heat budget using observational and reanalysis products, respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to an equatorial westward jet of 80 cm s-1 associated with downwelling ER waves. When anomalous currents associated with ER waves are removed in the budget, the warm intraseasonal temperature anomaly in the western Indian Ocean is eliminated in observations and reduced by 55% in reanalysis.

Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

PubMed

Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

2014-08-22

A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

2018-02-01

Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Observational Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones: Northern Versus Southern Hemisphere Warm Fronts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2012-01-01

Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.

Warming and glacier recession in the Rakaia valley, Southern Alps of New Zealand, during Heinrich Stadial 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putnam, Aaron E.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Denton, George H.; Barrell, David J. A.; Andersen, Bjørn G.; Koffman, Tobias N. B.; Rowan, Ann V.; Finkel, Robert C.; Rood, Dylan H.; Schwartz, Roseanne; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Plummer, Mitchell A.; Brocklehurst, Simon H.; Kelley, Samuel E.; Ladig, Kathryn L.

2013-11-01

The termination of the last ice age featured a major reconfiguration of Earth's climate and cryosphere, yet the underlying causes of these massive changes continue to be debated. Documenting the spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric temperature during deglaciation can help discriminate among potential drivers. Here, we present a 10Be surface-exposure chronology and glaciological reconstruction of ice recession following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Rakaia valley, Southern Alps of New Zealand. Innermost LGM moraines at Big Ben have an age of 17,840 ± 240 yrs, whereas ice-marginal moraines or ice-molded bedrock surfaces at distances up-valley from Big Ben of 12.5 km (Lake Coleridge), ∼25 km (Castle Hill), ∼28 km (Double Hill), ∼43 km (Prospect Hill), and ∼58 km (Reischek knob) have ages of 17,020 ± 70 yrs, 17,100 ± 110 yrs, 16,960 ± 370 yrs, 16,250 ± 340 yrs, and 15,660 ± 160 yrs, respectively. These results indicate extensive recession of the Rakaia glacier, which we attribute primarily to the effects of climatic warming. In conjunction with geomorphological maps and a glaciological reconstruction for the Rakaia valley, we use our chronology to infer timing and magnitude of past atmospheric temperature changes. Compared to an overall temperature rise of ∼4.65 °C between the end of the LGM and the start of the Holocene, the glacier recession between ∼17,840 and ∼15,660 yrs ago is attributable to a net temperature increase of ∼4.0 °C (from -6.25 to -2.25 °C), accounting for ∼86% of the overall warming. Approximately 3.75 °C (∼70%) of the warming occurred between ∼17,840 and ∼16,250 yrs ago, with a further 0.75 °C (∼16%) increase between ∼16,250 and ∼15,660 yrs ago. A sustained southward shift of the Subtropical Front (STF) south of Australia between ∼17,800 and ∼16,000 yrs ago coincides with the warming over the Rakaia valley, and suggests a close link between Southern Ocean frontal boundary positions and

Warming and glacier recession in the Rakaia valley, Southern Alps of New Zealand, during Heinrich Stadial 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaron E. Putnam; Joerg M. Schaefe; George H .Denton

2013-11-01

The termination of the last ice age featured a major reconfiguration of Earth's climate and cryosphere, yet the underlying causes of these massive changes continue to be debated. Documenting the spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric temperature during deglaciation can help discriminate among potential drivers. Here, we present a 10Be surface-exposure chronology and glaciological reconstruction of ice recession following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Rakaia valley, Southern Alps of New Zealand. Innermost LGM moraines at Big Ben have an age of 17,840 +/- 240 yrs, whereas ice-marginal moraines or ice-molded bedrock surfaces at distances up-valley from Big Benmore » of 12.5 km (Lake Coleridge), approximately 25 km (Castle Hill), approximately 28 km (Double Hill), approximately 43 km (Prospect Hill), and approximately 58 km (Reischek knob) have ages of 17,020 +/- 70 yrs, 17,100 +/- 110 yrs, 16,960 +/- 370 yrs, 16,250 +/- 340 yrs, and 15,660 +/- 160 yrs, respectively. These results indicate extensive recession of the Rakaia glacier, which we attribute primarily to the effects of climatic warming. In conjunction with geomorphological maps and a glaciological reconstruction for the Rakaia valley, we use our chronology to infer timing and magnitude of past atmospheric temperature changes. Compared to an overall temperature rise of approximately 4.65?degrees C between the end of the LGM and the start of the Holocene, the glacier recession between approximately 17,840 and approximately 15,660 yrs ago is attributable to a net temperature increase of approximately 4.0?degrees C (from -6.25 to -2.25?degrees C), accounting for approximately 86% of the overall warming. Approximately 3.75?degrees C (approximately 70%) of the warming occurred between approximately 17,840 and approximately 16,250 yrs ago, with a further 0.75?degrees C (approximately 16%) increase between approximately 16,250 and approximately 15,660 yrs ago. A sustained southward shift of the

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Numerical Modeling and Optimization of Warm-water Heat Sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadad, Yaser; Chiarot, Paul

2015-11-01

For cooling in large data-centers and supercomputers, water is increasingly replacing air as the working fluid in heat sinks. Utilizing water provides unique capabilities; for example: higher heat capacity, Prandtl number, and convection heat transfer coefficient. The use of warm, rather than chilled, water has the potential to provide increased energy efficiency. The geometric and operating parameters of the heat sink govern its performance. Numerical modeling is used to examine the influence of geometry and operating conditions on key metrics such as thermal and flow resistance. This model also facilitates studies on cooling of electronic chip hot spots and failure scenarios. We report on the optimal parameters for a warm-water heat sink to achieve maximum cooling performance.

Infrared absorption cross-sections, radiative efficiency and global warming potential of HFC-43-10mee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, Karine; DeZeeuw, Jasmine; Godin, Paul J.; Strong, Kimberly

2018-06-01

HFC-43-10mee (C5H2F10) is a substitute for CFC-113, HCFC-141b and methyl chloroform, as well as an alternative to perfluorocarbons with high radiative efficiencies. Recent observations have shown that the global mean tropospheric abundance of HFC-43-10mee has increased steadily from the 1990s to reach 0.211 ppt in 2012. To date, the emission of this compound is not regulated. The radiative efficiency (RE) of HFC-43-10mee has recently been re-evaluated at 0.42 W m-2 ppb-1, giving a 100-year time horizon global warming potential (GWP100) of 1650. However, the initial RE, from which the new values were derived, originated from an unpublished source. We calculated a new RE of 0.36 W m-2 ppb-1 and a GWP100 of 1410 from laboratory absorption cross-section spectra of a pure vapour of HFC-43-10mee. Acquisitions were performed in the 550-3500 cm-1 spectral range using Fourier transform spectroscopy. The results were compared with the broadened spectra from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) database and with theoretical calculations using density functional theory.

Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

PubMed Central

Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

2017-01-01

Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13–0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio. PMID:28045111

Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments.

PubMed

Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

2017-01-03

Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO 2 (GWP bio ). In this study we calculated the GWP bio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWP bio factors ranged from 0.13-0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWP bio . Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO 2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWP bio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWP bio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWP bio .

Analysis of the Global Warming Potential of Biogenic CO2 Emission in Life Cycle Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Zhonghui; Xie, Xinfeng; Yu, Zhen; von Gadow, Klaus; Xu, Junming; Zhao, Shanshan; Yang, Yuchun

2017-01-01

Biomass is generally believed to be carbon neutral. However, recent studies have challenged the carbon neutrality hypothesis by introducing metric indicators to assess the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbio). In this study we calculated the GWPbio factors using a forest growth model and radiative forcing effects with a time horizon of 100 years and applied the factors to five life cycle assessment (LCA) case studies of bioproducts. The forest carbon change was also accounted for in the LCA studies. GWPbio factors ranged from 0.13-0.32, indicating that biomass could be an attractive energy resource when compared with fossil fuels. As expected, short rotation and fast-growing biomass plantations produced low GWPbio. Long-lived wood products also allowed more regrowth of biomass to be accounted as absorption of the CO2 emission from biomass combustion. The LCA case studies showed that the total life cycle GHG emissions were closely related to GWPbio and energy conversion efficiency. By considering the GWPbio factors and the forest carbon change, the production of ethanol and bio-power appeared to have higher GHG emissions than petroleum-derived diesel at the highest GWPbio.

Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant ( P<0.01 and P<0.001) advance in spring phenology that was driven by rising spring temperature ( P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly ( P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant (P<0.01 and P<0.001) advance in spring phenology that was driven by rising spring temperature (P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly (P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

From aerosol-limited to invigoration of warm convective clouds.

PubMed

Koren, Ilan; Dagan, Guy; Altaratz, Orit

2014-06-06

Among all cloud-aerosol interactions, the invigoration effect is the most elusive. Most of the studies that do suggest this effect link it to deep convective clouds with a warm base and cold top. Here, we provide evidence from observations and numerical modeling of a dramatic aerosol effect on warm clouds. We propose that convective-cloud invigoration by aerosols can be viewed as an extension of the concept of aerosol-limited clouds, where cloud development is limited by the availability of cloud-condensation nuclei. A transition from pristine to slightly polluted atmosphere yields estimated negative forcing of ~15 watts per square meter (cooling), suggesting that a substantial part of this anthropogenic forcing over the oceans occurred at the beginning of the industrial era, when the marine atmosphere experienced such transformation. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Hardy exotics species in temperate zone: can “warm water” crayfish invaders establish regardless of low temperatures?

PubMed Central

Veselý, Lukáš; Buřič, Miloš; Kouba, Antonín

2015-01-01

The spreading of new crayfish species poses a serious risk for freshwater ecosystems; because they are omnivores they influence more than one level in the trophic chain and they represent a significant part of the benthic biomass. Both the environmental change through global warming and the expansion of the pet trade increase the possibilities of their spreading. We investigated the potential of four “warm water” highly invasive crayfish species to overwinter in the temperate zone, so as to predict whether these species pose a risk for European freshwaters. We used 15 specimens of each of the following species: the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), the marbled crayfish (Procambarus fallax f. virginalis), the yabby (Cherax destructor), and the redclaw (Cherax quadricarinatus). Specimens were acclimatized and kept for 6.5 months at temperatures simulating the winter temperature regime of European temperate zone lentic ecosystems. We conclude that the red swamp crayfish, marbled crayfish and yabby have the ability to withstand low winter temperatures relevant for lentic habitats in the European temperate zone, making them a serious invasive threat to freshwater ecosystems. PMID:26572317

Physiological constraints on organismal response to global warming: Mechanistic insights from clinally varying populations and implications for assessing endangerment.

PubMed

Bernardo, Joseph; Spotila, James R

2006-03-22

Recent syntheses indicate that global warming affects diverse biological processes, but also highlight the potential for some species to adapt behaviourally or evolutionarily to rapid climate change. Far less attention has addressed the alternative, that organisms lacking this ability may face extinction, a fate projected to befall one-quarter of global biodiversity. This conclusion is controversial, in part because there exist few mechanistic studies that show how climate change could precipitate extinction. We provide a concrete, mechanistic example of warming as a stressor of organisms that are closely adapted to cool climates from a comparative analysis of organismal tolerance among clinally varying populations along a natural thermal gradient. We found that two montane salamanders exhibit significant metabolic depression at temperatures within the natural thermal range experienced by low and middle elevation populations. Moreover, the magnitude of depression was inversely related to native elevation, suggesting that low elevation populations are already living near the limit of their physiological tolerances. If this finding generally applies to other montane specialists, the prognosis for biodiversity loss in typically diverse montane systems is sobering. We propose that indices of warming-induced stress tolerance may provide a critical new tool for quantitative assessments of endangerment due to anthropogenic climate change across diverse species.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

1988-09-01

Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

Global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, John

2005-06-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 604 - Table of Potential Remedies

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Table of Potential Remedies D Appendix D to Part... Potential Remedies Remedy Assessment Matrix: ER11AU08.015 FTA's Remedy Policy — This remedy policy applies.... — Remedy calculation is based on the following elements: (1) The nature and circumstances of the violation...

49 CFR Appendix D to Part 604 - Table of Potential Remedies

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Table of Potential Remedies D Appendix D to Part... Potential Remedies Remedy Assessment Matrix: ER11AU08.015 FTA's Remedy Policy — This remedy policy applies.... — Remedy calculation is based on the following elements: (1) The nature and circumstances of the violation...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.1634 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

Aerosol effect on the evolution of the thermodynamic properties of warm convective cloud fields

PubMed Central

Dagan, Guy; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit; Heiblum, Reuven H.

2016-01-01

Convective cloud formation and evolution strongly depend on environmental temperature and humidity profiles. The forming clouds change the profiles that created them by redistributing heat and moisture. Here we show that the evolution of the field’s thermodynamic properties depends heavily on the concentration of aerosol, liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere. Under polluted conditions, rain formation is suppressed and the non-precipitating clouds act to warm the lower part of the cloudy layer (where there is net condensation) and cool and moisten the upper part of the cloudy layer (where there is net evaporation), thereby destabilizing the layer. Under clean conditions, precipitation causes net warming of the cloudy layer and net cooling of the sub-cloud layer (driven by rain evaporation), which together act to stabilize the atmosphere with time. Previous studies have examined different aspects of the effects of clouds on their environment. Here, we offer a complete analysis of the cloudy atmosphere, spanning the aerosol effect from instability-consumption to enhancement, below, inside and above warm clouds, showing the temporal evolution of the effects. We propose a direct measure for the magnitude and sign of the aerosol effect on thermodynamic instability. PMID:27929097

Aerosol effect on the evolution of the thermodynamic properties of warm convective cloud fields.

PubMed

Dagan, Guy; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit; Heiblum, Reuven H

2016-12-08

Convective cloud formation and evolution strongly depend on environmental temperature and humidity profiles. The forming clouds change the profiles that created them by redistributing heat and moisture. Here we show that the evolution of the field's thermodynamic properties depends heavily on the concentration of aerosol, liquid or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere. Under polluted conditions, rain formation is suppressed and the non-precipitating clouds act to warm the lower part of the cloudy layer (where there is net condensation) and cool and moisten the upper part of the cloudy layer (where there is net evaporation), thereby destabilizing the layer. Under clean conditions, precipitation causes net warming of the cloudy layer and net cooling of the sub-cloud layer (driven by rain evaporation), which together act to stabilize the atmosphere with time. Previous studies have examined different aspects of the effects of clouds on their environment. Here, we offer a complete analysis of the cloudy atmosphere, spanning the aerosol effect from instability-consumption to enhancement, below, inside and above warm clouds, showing the temporal evolution of the effects. We propose a direct measure for the magnitude and sign of the aerosol effect on thermodynamic instability.

Genetic Linkage of Soil Carbon Pools and Microbial Functions in Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands in Response to Experimental Warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Hang; He, Zhili; Lu, Zhenmei; Zhou, Jizhong; Van Nostrand, Joy D.; Xu, Xinhua

2012-01-01

Rising climate temperatures in the future are predicted to accelerate the microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. A field microcosm experiment was carried out to examine the impact of soil warming in freshwater wetlands on different organic carbon (C) pools and associated microbial functional responses. GeoChip 4.0, a functional gene microarray, was used to determine microbial gene diversity and functional potential for C degradation. Experimental warming significantly increased soil pore water dissolved organic C and phosphorus (P) concentrations, leading to a higher potential for C emission and P export. Such losses of total organic C stored in soil could be traced back to the decomposition of recalcitrant organic C. Warming preferentially stimulated genes for degrading recalcitrant C over labile C. This was especially true for genes encoding cellobiase and mnp for cellulose and lignin degradation, respectively. We confirmed this with warming-enhanced polyphenol oxidase and peroxidase activities for recalcitrant C acquisition and greater increases in recalcitrant C use efficiency than in labile C use efficiency (average percentage increases of 48% versus 28%, respectively). The relative abundance of lignin-degrading genes increased by 15% under warming; meanwhile, soil fungi, as the primary decomposers of lignin, were greater in abundance by 27%. This work suggests that future warming may enhance the potential for accelerated fungal decomposition of lignin-like compounds, leading to greater microbially mediated C losses than previously estimated in freshwater wetlands. PMID:22923398

No Effect of Muscle Stretching within a Full, Dynamic Warm-up on Athletic Performance.

PubMed

Blazevich, Anthony J; Gill, Nicholas D; Kvorning, Thue; Kay, Anthony D; Goh, Alvin G; Hilton, Bradley; Drinkwater, Eric J; Behm, David G

2018-06-01

This study aimed to examine the effects of static and dynamic stretching routines performed as part of a comprehensive warm-up on flexibility and sprint running, jumping, and change of direction tests in team sport athletes. A randomized, controlled, crossover study design with experimenter blinding was conducted. On separate days, 20 male team sport athletes completed a comprehensive warm-up routine. After a low-intensity warm-up, a 5-s static stretch (5S), a 30-s static stretch (30S; 3 × 10-s stretches), a 5-repetition (per muscle group) dynamic stretch (DYN), or a no-stretch (NS) protocol was completed; stretches were done on seven lower body and two upper body regions. This was followed by test-specific practice progressing to maximum intensity. A comprehensive test battery assessing intervention effect expectations as well as flexibility, vertical jump, sprint running, and change of direction outcomes was then completed in a random order. There were no effects of stretch condition on test performances. Before the study, 18/20 participants nominated DYN as the most likely to improve performance and 15/20 nominated NS as least likely. Immediately before testing, NS was rated less "effective" (4.0 ± 2.2 on a 10-point scale) than 5S, 30S, and DYN (5.3-6.4). Nonetheless, these ratings were not related to test performances. Participants felt they were more likely to perform well when stretching was performed as part of the warm-up, irrespective of stretch type. However, no effect of muscle stretching was observed on flexibility and physical function compared with no stretching. On the basis of the current evidence, the inclusion of short durations of either static or dynamic stretching is unlikely to affect sprint running, jumping, or change of direction performance when performed as part of a comprehensive physical preparation routine.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of

Potential of solar domestic hot water systems in rural areas for greenhouse gas emission reduction in Poland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skowronski, P.; Wisniewski, G.

Application of solar energy for preparing domestic hot water is one of the easiest methods of utilization of this energy. At least part of the needs for warm tap water could be covered by solar systems. At present, mainly coal is used for water heating at dwellings in rural areas in Poland. Warm tap water consumption will increase significantly in the future as standards of living are improved. This can result in the growth of electricity use and an increase in primary fuel consumption. Present and future methods of warm sanitary water generation in rural areas in Poland is discussed,more » and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are estimated. It is predicted that the emission of CO{sub 2} and NOx will increase. The emission of CO and CH{sub 4} will decrease because of changes in the structure of the final energy carriers used. The economic and market potentials of solar energy for preparing warm water in rural areas are discussed. It is estimated that solar systems can meet 30%-45% of the energy demand for warm water generation in rural areas at a reasonable cost, with a corresponding CO{sub 2} emission reduction. The rate of realization of the economic potential of solar water heaters depends on subsidies for the installation of equipment. 13 refs., 9 tabs.« less

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Integrating both interaction pathways between warming and pesticide exposure on upper thermal tolerance in high- and low-latitude populations of an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Op de Beeck, Lin; Verheyen, Julie; Stoks, Robby

2017-05-01

Global warming and chemical pollution are key anthropogenic stressors with the potential to interact. While warming can change the impact of pollutants and pollutants can change the sensitivity to warming, both interaction pathways have never been integrated in a single experiment. Therefore, we tested the effects of warming and multiple pesticide pulses (allowing accumulation) of chlorpyrifos on upper thermal tolerance (CTmax) and associated physiological traits related to aerobic/anaerobic energy production in the damselfly Ischnura elegans. To also assess the role of latitude-specific thermal adaptation in shaping the impact of warming and pesticide exposure on thermal tolerance, we exposed larvae from replicated high- and low-latitude populations to the pesticide in a common garden rearing experiment at 20 and 24 °C, the mean summer water temperatures at high and low latitudes. As expected, exposure to chlorpyrifos resulted in a lower CTmax. Yet, this pesticide effect on CTmax was lower at 24 °C compared to 20 °C because of a lower accumulation of chlorpyrifos in the medium at 24 °C. The effects on CTmax could partly be explained by reduction of the aerobic scope. Given that these effects did not differ between latitudes, gradual thermal evolution is not expected to counteract the negative effect of the pesticide on thermal tolerance. By for the first time integrating both interaction pathways we were not only able to provide support for both of them, but more importantly demonstrate that they can directly affect each other. Indeed, the warming-induced reduction in pesticide impact generated a lower pesticide-induced climate change sensitivity (in terms of decreased upper thermal tolerance). Our results indicate that, assuming no increase in pesticide input, global warming might reduce the negative effect of multiple pulse exposures to pesticides on sensitivity to elevated temperatures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global warming: it's not only size that matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2011-09-01

impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.

PubMed

Allen, Myles R; Frame, David J; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai

2009-04-30

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.

Assessing energy efficiencies, economy, and global warming potential (GWP) effects of major crop production systems in Iran: a case study in East Azerbaijan province.

PubMed

Mohammadzadeh, Arash; Mahdavi Damghani, Abdolmajid; Vafabakhsh, Javad; Deihimfard, Reza

2017-07-01

Efficient use of energy in farming systems is one of the most important implications for decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigating global warming (GW). This paper describes the energy use patterns, analyze the economics, and report global warming potential effects of major crop production systems in East Azerbaijan province, Iran. For this purpose, 110 farmers whose main activity was major crop production in the region, including wheat, barley, carrot, tomato, onion, potato, alfalfa, corn silage, canola, and saffron, were surveyed. Some other data was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad of Iran. Results showed that, in terms of total energy input, onion (87,556 Mj ha -1 ) and potato (80,869 Mj ha -1 ) production systems were more energy-intensive than other crops. Among the studied crops, the highest values of net return (6563.8 $ ha -1 ) and benefit/cost ratio (1.95) were related to carrot and corn silage production systems, respectively. Studies have also shown that onion and saffron production systems emit the highest (5332.6 kg CO2eq ha -1 ) and lowest (646.24 kg CO 2 eq ha -1 ) CO 2 eq. emission, respectively. When it was averaged across crops, diesel fuel accounted for the greatest GHG contribution with 43% of the total, followed by electric power (28%) and nitrogen fertilizer (21%). In the present study, eco-efficiency was calculated as a ratio of the gross production value and global warming potential effect for the studied crops. Out of all the studied crops, the highest values of eco-efficiency were calculated to be 8.65 $ kg CO 2 eq -1 for the saffron production system followed by the carrot (3.65 $ kg CO 2 eq -1 ) production. Generally, from the aspect of energy balance and use efficiency, the alfalfa production system was the best; however, from an economical point of view, the carrot production system was better than the other crops.

Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

2017-12-01

Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

Annual Removal of Aboveground Plant Biomass Alters Soil Microbial Responses to Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, Kai; Yuan, Mengting M.; Xie, Jianping

Clipping (i.e., harvesting aboveground plant biomass) is common in agriculture and for bioenergy production. However, microbial responses to clipping in the context of climate warming are poorly understood. We investigated the interactive effects of grassland warming and clipping on soil properties and plant and microbial communities, in particular, on microbial functional genes. Clipping alone did not change the plant biomass production, but warming and clipping combined increased the C4 peak biomass by 47% and belowground net primary production by 110%. Clipping alone and in combination with warming decreased the soil carbon input from litter by 81% and 75%, respectively. Withmore » less carbon input, the abundances of genes involved in degrading relatively recalcitrant carbon increased by 38% to 137% in response to either clipping or the combined treatment, which could weaken long-term soil carbon stability and trigger positive feedback with respect to warming. Clipping alone also increased the abundance of genes for nitrogen fixation, mineralization, and denitrification by 32% to 39%. Such potentially stimulated nitrogen fixation could help compensate for the 20% decline in soil ammonium levels caused by clipping alone and could contribute to unchanged plant biomass levels. Moreover, clipping tended to interact antagonistically with warming, especially with respect to effects on nitrogen cycling genes, demonstrating that single-factor studies cannot predict multifactorial changes. These results revealed that clipping alone or in combination with warming altered soil and plant properties as well as the abundance and structure of soil microbial functional genes. Aboveground biomass removal for biofuel production needs to be reconsidered, as the long-term soil carbon stability may be weakened. IMPORTANCE Global change involves simultaneous alterations, including those caused by climate warming and land management practices (e.g., clipping). Data on the

Annual Removal of Aboveground Plant Biomass Alters Soil Microbial Responses to Warming

DOE PAGES

Xue, Kai; Yuan, Mengting M.; Xie, Jianping; ...

2016-09-27

Clipping (i.e., harvesting aboveground plant biomass) is common in agriculture and for bioenergy production. However, microbial responses to clipping in the context of climate warming are poorly understood. We investigated the interactive effects of grassland warming and clipping on soil properties and plant and microbial communities, in particular, on microbial functional genes. Clipping alone did not change the plant biomass production, but warming and clipping combined increased the C4 peak biomass by 47% and belowground net primary production by 110%. Clipping alone and in combination with warming decreased the soil carbon input from litter by 81% and 75%, respectively. Withmore » less carbon input, the abundances of genes involved in degrading relatively recalcitrant carbon increased by 38% to 137% in response to either clipping or the combined treatment, which could weaken long-term soil carbon stability and trigger positive feedback with respect to warming. Clipping alone also increased the abundance of genes for nitrogen fixation, mineralization, and denitrification by 32% to 39%. Such potentially stimulated nitrogen fixation could help compensate for the 20% decline in soil ammonium levels caused by clipping alone and could contribute to unchanged plant biomass levels. Moreover, clipping tended to interact antagonistically with warming, especially with respect to effects on nitrogen cycling genes, demonstrating that single-factor studies cannot predict multifactorial changes. These results revealed that clipping alone or in combination with warming altered soil and plant properties as well as the abundance and structure of soil microbial functional genes. Aboveground biomass removal for biofuel production needs to be reconsidered, as the long-term soil carbon stability may be weakened. IMPORTANCE Global change involves simultaneous alterations, including those caused by climate warming and land management practices (e.g., clipping). Data on the

Warm Water Entrainment Impacts and Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of a Proposed Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Pilot Plant Offshore Oahu, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauer, Whitney Blanchard

generation, with the exception of nuclear power. As part of the LCA, an ichthyoplankton entrainment impact assessment method was developed to estimate potential loss from the warm water intake for the proposed OTEC plant and for six coastal nuclear power facilities that use once-through cooling technology. Larval fish entrainment (#/kWh) was significantly greater (p<0.026) for the proposed OTEC facility, ranging from 10.0 to 11.7 larvae/kWh due to different capacity factors, than for the six nuclear power facilities that ranged from 0.08 to 0.78 larvae/kWh. While this research did not investigate OTEC technology development and economics, OTEC would be a favorable option for reducing the GWP and the reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in HI. The impact of ichthyoplankton mortality due to warm water entrainment for a 10 MW OTEC plant offshore Oahu, HI would likely be acceptable as there are examples of similar water withdrawals for electricity generation. Biological monitoring of a 10 MW facility would verify estimated environmental impacts of the warm water withdrawal and provide new information on the cold water withdrawal before advancing to a commercial (e.g., 100 MW) scale facility.

Innovative empirical approaches for inferring climate-warming impacts on plants in remote areas.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter

2015-02-01

The prediction of the effects of climate warming on plant communities across the globe has become a major focus of ecology, evolution and biodiversity conservation. However, many of the frequently used empirical approaches for inferring how warming affects vegetation have been criticized for decades. In addition, methods that require no electricity may be preferred because of constraints of active warming, e.g. in remote areas. Efforts to overcome the limitations of earlier methods are currently under development, but these approaches have yet to be systematically evaluated side by side. Here, an overview of the benefits and limitations of a selection of innovative empirical techniques to study temperature effects on plants is presented, with a focus on practicality in relatively remote areas without an electric power supply. I focus on methods for: ecosystem aboveground and belowground warming; a fuller exploitation of spatial temperature variation; and long-term monitoring of plant ecological and microevolutionary changes in response to warming. An evaluation of the described methodological set-ups in a synthetic framework along six axes (associated with the consistency of temperature differences, disturbance, costs, confounding factors, spatial scale and versatility) highlights their potential usefulness and power. Hence, further developments of new approaches to empirically assess warming effects on plants can critically stimulate progress in climate-change biology.

Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak

1990-01-01

The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

Prolonged warm ischemia time is associated with graft failure and mortality after kidney transplantation.

PubMed

Tennankore, Karthik K; Kim, S Joseph; Alwayn, Ian P J; Kiberd, Bryce A

2016-03-01

Warm ischemia time is a potentially modifiable insult to transplanted kidneys, but little is known about its effect on long-term outcomes. Here we conducted a study of United States kidney transplant recipients (years 2000-2013) to determine the association between warm ischemia time (the time from organ removal from cold storage to reperfusion with warm blood) and death/graft failure. Times under 10 minutes were potentially attributed to coding error. Therefore, the 10-to-under-20-minute interval was chosen as the reference group. The primary outcome was mortality and graft failure (return to chronic dialysis or preemptive retransplantation) adjusted for recipient, donor, immunologic, and surgical factors. The study included 131,677 patients with 35,901 events. Relative to the reference patients, times of 10 to under 20, 20 to under 30, 30 to under 40, 40 to under 50, 50 to under 60, and 60 and more minutes were associated with hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.15), 1.13 (1.06-1.22), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), 1.20 (1.12-1.30), and 1.23 (1.15-1.33) for the composite event, respectively. Association between prolonged warm ischemia time and death/graft failure persisted after stratification by donor type (living vs. deceased donor) and delayed graft function status. Thus, warm ischemia time is associated with adverse long-term patient and graft survival after kidney transplantation. Identifying strategies to reduce warm ischemia time is an important consideration for future study. Copyright © 2015 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marine species distribution shifts on the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf under continued ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleisner, Kristin M.; Fogarty, Michael J.; McGee, Sally; Hare, Jonathan A.; Moret, Skye; Perretti, Charles T.; Saba, Vincent S.

2017-04-01

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf marine ecosystem has warmed much faster than the global ocean and it is expected that this enhanced warming will continue through this century. Complex bathymetry and ocean circulation in this region have contributed to biases in global climate model simulations of the Shelf waters. Increasing the resolution of these models results in reductions in the bias of future climate change projections and indicates greater warming than suggested by coarse resolution climate projections. Here, we used a high-resolution global climate model and historical observations of species distributions from a trawl survey to examine changes in the future distribution of suitable thermal habitat for various demersal and pelagic species on the Shelf. Along the southern portion of the shelf (Mid-Atlantic Bight and Georges Bank), a projected 4.1 °C (surface) to 5.0 °C (bottom) warming of ocean temperature from current conditions results in a northward shift of the thermal habitat for the majority of species. While some southern species like butterfish and black sea bass are projected to have moderate losses in suitable thermal habitat, there are potentially significant increases for many species including summer flounder, striped bass, and Atlantic croaker. In the north, in the Gulf of Maine, a projected 3.7 °C (surface) to 3.9 °C (bottom) warming from current conditions results in substantial reductions in suitable thermal habitat such that species currently inhabiting this region may not remain in these waters under continued warming. We project a loss in suitable thermal habitat for key northern species including Acadian redfish, American plaice, Atlantic cod, haddock, and thorney skate, but potential gains for some species including spiny dogfish and American lobster. We illustrate how changes in suitable thermal habitat of important commercially fished species may impact local fishing communities and potentially impact major fishing ports

Hot Water and Warm Homes from Sunlight. Teacher's Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gould, Alan

A basic understanding of the potential of solar energy is increasingly relevant given the pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuel, health problems associated with that pollution, the possibility of global warming, and the complex issues raised by the dependence of industrialized nations on oil and natural gas. This teacher's guide presents…

Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong

2017-12-01

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Regional warming of hot extremes accelerated by surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-12-01

Strong regional differences exist in how hot temperature extremes increase under global warming. Using an ensemble of coupled climate models, we examine the regional warming rates of hot extremes relative to annual average warming rates in the same regions. We identify hotspots of accelerated warming of model-simulated hot extremes in Europe, North America, South America and Southeast China. These hotspots indicate where the warm tail of a distribution of temperatures increases faster than the average and are robust across most CMIP5 models. Exploring the conditions on the specific day the hot extreme occurs demonstrates the hotspots are explained by changes in the surface energy fluxes consistent with drying soils. Furthermore, in these hotspot regions we find a relationship between the temperature - heat flux correlation under current climate conditions and the magnitude of future projected changes in hot extremes, pointing to a potential emergent constraint for simulations of future hot extremes. However, the model-simulated accelerated warming of hot extremes appears inconsistent with observations of the past 60 years, except over Europe. The simulated acceleration of hot extremes may therefore be unreliable, a result that necessitates a re-evaluation of how climate models resolve the relevant terrestrial processes.

Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants for Commercial Refrigeration Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fricke, Brian A.; Sharma, Vishaldeep; Abdelaziz, Omar

Supermarket refrigeration systems account for approximately 50% of supermarket energy use, placing this class of equipment among the highest energy consumers in the commercial building domain. In addition, the commonly used refrigeration system in supermarket applications is the multiplex direct expansion (DX) system, which is prone to refrigerant leaks due to its long lengths of refrigerant piping. This leakage reduces the efficiency of the system and increases the impact of the system on the environment. The high Global Warming Potential (GWP) of the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants commonly used in these systems, coupled with the large refrigerant charge and the highmore » refrigerant leakage rates leads to significant direct emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Environmental concerns are driving regulations for the heating, ventilating, air-conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) industry towards lower GWP alternatives to HFC refrigerants. Existing lower GWP refrigerant alternatives include hydrocarbons, such as propane (R-290) and isobutane (R-600a), as well as carbon dioxide (R-744), ammonia (R-717), and R-32. In addition, new lower GWP refrigerant alternatives are currently being developed by refrigerant manufacturers, including hydrofluoro-olefin (HFO) and unsaturated hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFO) refrigerants. The selection of an appropriate refrigerant for a given refrigeration application should be based on several factors, including the GWP of the refrigerant, the energy consumption of the refrigeration system over its operating lifetime, and leakage of refrigerant over the system lifetime. For example, focusing on energy efficiency alone may overlook the significant environmental impact of refrigerant leakage; while focusing on GWP alone might result in lower efficiency systems that result in higher indirect impact over the equipment lifetime. Thus, the objective of this Collaborative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean

PubMed Central

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-01-01

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean–atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-09-17

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

Winter cold of eastern continental boundaries induced by warm ocean waters.

PubMed

Kaspi, Yohai; Schneider, Tapio

2011-03-31

In winter, northeastern North America and northeastern Asia are both colder than other regions at similar latitudes. This has been attributed to the effects of stationary weather systems set by elevated terrain (orography), and to a lack of maritime influences from the prevailing westerly winds. However, the differences in extent and orography between the two continents suggest that further mechanisms are involved. Here we show that this anomalous winter cold can result in part from westward radiation of large-scale atmospheric waves--nearly stationary Rossby waves--generated by heating of the atmosphere over warm ocean waters. We demonstrate this mechanism using simulations with an idealized general circulation model, with which we show that the extent of the cold region is controlled by properties of Rossby waves, such as their group velocity and its dependence on the planetary rotation rate. Our results show that warm ocean waters contribute to the contrast in mid-latitude winter temperatures between eastern and western continental boundaries not only by warming western boundaries, but also by cooling eastern boundaries.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael; Shine, Richard; Porter, Warren P

2009-03-10

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

Antarctic ice discharge due to warm water intrusion into shelf cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Reese, R.; Albrecht, T.; Mengel, M.; Asay-Davis, X.

2017-12-01

Ocean-induced melting below ice shelves is the dominant driver for mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet at present. Observations show that many Antarctic ice shelves are thinning which reduces their buttressing potential and can lead to increased ice discharge from the glaciers upstream. Melt rates from Antarctic ice shelves are determined by the temperature and salinity of the ambient ocean. In many parts, ice shelves are shielded by clearly defined density fronts which keep relatively warm Northern water from entering the cavity underneath the ice shelves. Projections show that a redirection of coastal currents might allow these warmer waters to intrude into ice shelf cavities, for instance in the Weddell Sea, and thereby cause a strong increase in sub-shelf melt rates. Using the Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel (PICO), we assess how such a change would influence the dynamic ice loss from Antarctica. PICO is implemented as part of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and mimics the vertical overturning circulation in ice-shelf cavities. The model is capable of capturing the wide range of melt rates currently observed for Antarctic ice shelves and reproduces the typical pattern of comparably high melting near the grounding line and lower melting or refreezing towards the calving front. Based on regional observations of ocean temperatures, we use PISM-PICO to estimate an upper limit for ice discharge resulting from the potential erosion of ocean fronts around Antarctica.

Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation benefits intraoperative core temperature during laparoscopic surgery: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard; Lynch, A Craig

2017-05-01

Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO 2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta-analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO 2 during laparoscopy. An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO 2 or cold, dry CO 2 . The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO 2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO 2 insufflation . CONCLUSION: Warmed, humidified CO 2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO 2. © 2016 The Authors. Asian Journal of Endoscopic Surgery published by Asia Endosurgery Task Force and Japan Society of Endoscopic Surgery and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanyingmore » pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.« less

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene.

PubMed

Burls, Natalie J; Fedorov, Alexey V; Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H

2017-09-01

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world's largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400-ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

PubMed Central

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-01-01

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world’s largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming. PMID:28924606

Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene

DOE PAGES

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Sigman, Daniel M.; ...

2017-09-13

An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, theworld’s largest ocean,where relatively fresh surface waters inhibitNorth Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400–ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanyingmore » pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redoxsensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.« less

Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C-4.0°C global warming.

PubMed

Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Hibino, Kenshi; Numata, Ayaka; Oguro, Michio; Aiba, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Takayabu, Izuru; Nakashizuka, Tohru

2017-12-01

Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975-1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos ( Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides ) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980-2000) to 46%-48%, 51%-54%, 61%-67%, and 77%-83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Evaluation of the Performance of Warm Mix Asphalt in Washington State

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a relatively new and emerging technology for the asphalt industry. : It offers potential construction and environmental advantages over traditional hot mix asphalt : (HMA). However, WMA must perform at least as well as HMA b...

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

2012-03-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

Chromium Isotope Anomaly Scaling with Past Warming Episodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remmelzwaal, S.; O'Connor, L.; Preston, W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Schmidt, D. N.

2017-12-01

The recent expansion of oxygen minimum zones caused by anthropogenic global warming raises questions about the scale of this expansion with different emission scenarios. Ocean deoxygenation will impact marine ecosystems and fisheries demanding an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of deoxygenation. Here, we used past climate warming events to quantify a potential link between warming and the spread of oxygen minimum zones: including Ocean Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, OAE 2 in the Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. We applied the emerging proxy of chromium isotopes in planktic foraminifera to assess redox changes during the PETM, ETM2, and Pleistocene and bulk carbonate for the OAEs. Both δ53Cr and chromium concentrations respond markedly during the PETM indicative of a reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by changes in ocean ventilation and associated warming [1]. A strong correlation between Δδ53Cr and benthic Δδ18O, a measure of the excursion size in both oxygen and chromium isotopes, suggest temperatures to be one of the main drivers of ocean deoxygenation in the past [1]. Chromium concentrations decrease during ETM2 and OAE1a, and, increase by 4.5 ppm over the Plenus Cold Event during OAE2, which suggests enhanced seafloor ventilation. [1] Remmelzwaal, S.R.C., Dixon, S., Parkinson, I.J., Schmidt, D.N., Monteiro, F.M., Sexton, P., Fehr, M., Peacock, C., Donnadieu, Y., James, R.H., in review. Ocean deoxygenation during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. EPSL.