NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Kim, J. H.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Riggin, D. M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.
2017-12-01
A minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during the September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. The signature of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) response was detected using the ground based and space borne observations along with the model predictions. The changes in the mesosphere wind field were studied from the observations of both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) and Rothera (68oS, 68oW), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW occurrence. We have also analyzed the MLT tides using both the radars and noticed strong enhancement of semi-diurnal tide (SDT) a few days later the cessation of 2010 SSW. We note the similar enhancement during the 2002 major SSW. Specifically, the SDT amplitude enhancement is greater for the 2010 SSW than 2002 SSW. We found that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the 2010 minor SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere by generating the quasi-secondary waves of periodicity 3-9 days. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km are simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to the 2002 major SSW.
The MJO-SSW Teleconnection: Interaction Between MJO-Forced Waves and the Midlatitude Jet
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kang, Wanying; Tziperman, Eli
2018-05-01
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was shown to affect both present-day sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Arctic and their future frequency under global warming scenarios, with implications to the Arctic Oscillation and midlatitude extreme weather. This work uses a dry dynamic core model to understand the dependence of SSW frequency on the amplitude and longitudinal range of the MJO, motivated by the prediction that the MJO will strengthen and broaden its longitudinal range in a warmer climate. We focus on the response of the midlatitude jets and the corresponding generated stationary waves, which are shown to dominate the response of SSW events to MJO forcing. Momentum budget analysis of a large ensemble of spinup simulations suggests that the climatological jet response is driven by the MJO-forced meridional eddy momentum transport. The results suggest that the trends in both MJO amplitude and longitudinal range are important for the prediction of the midlatitude jet response and for the prediction of SSWs in a future climate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Jesus, R.; Batista, I. S.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; de Abreu, A. J.
2017-02-01
The main purpose of this paper is to study the response of the ionospheric F-region using GPS-TEC measurements at equatorial and low latitude regions over the Brazilian sector during an sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in the year 2006. In this work, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations derived from GPS network in Brazil. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was employed to check the periodicities of the ΔVTEC during the SSW event. The results show a strong decrease in VTEC and ΔVTEC values in the afternoon over low latitudes from DOY 05-39 (during the SSW event) mainly after the second SSW temperature peak. The ionospheric ΔVTEC pattern over Brazilian sector shows diurnal and semidiurnal oscillations during the 2006 SSW event. In addition, for the first time, variations in ΔVTEC (low latitude stations) with periods of about 02-08 day have been reported during an SSW event. Using GPS stations located in the Brazilian sector, it is reported for the first time that equatorial ionospheric irregularities were not suppressed by the SSW event.
Morphology of ionospheric F2 region variability associated with sudden stratospheric warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gupta, Sumedha; Upadhayaya, A. K.
2017-07-01
The effect of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on the F2 region ionosphere has been extensively analyzed for the major event of year 2009, apart from a few reports on other major and minor events. Morphology of ionospheric responses during SSW can be better comprehended by analyzing such warming events under different solar, geomagnetic, and meteorological conditions. We investigate the features of F2 region variability following the SSW events of 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, using ionosonde data from the Asian region covering a broad latitudinal range from 26.6°N to 45.1°N. We find perceptible ionospheric variations in electron densities during these warming events which is accompanied by a large variation of 117% within enhancements, as compared to a meagre variation of 11% within depressions, during these events. We also examine 6 months data at these latitudes and longitudes and find that the maximum and minimum variations in F2 layer critical frequency are observed during each SSW period. The influence of quasi-stationary 16 day planetary waves is seen during these SSW events. Further, a recently proposed parameter "SSW integrated strength" by Vieira et al. (2017) to characterize SSW event with respect to ionosphere is also examined. It is seen that it does not fit well for these seven SSW events at these latitudes and longitudes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koval, Andrey V.; Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.; Savenkova, Elena N.
2018-06-01
The dynamical coupling of the lower and upper atmosphere by planetary waves (PWs) is studied. Numerical simulations of planetary wave (PW) amplitudes during composite sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in January-February are made using a model of general circulation of the middle and upper atmosphere with initial and boundary conditions typical for the westerly and easterly phases of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The changes in PW amplitudes in the middle atmosphere before, during and after SSW event for the different QBO phases are considered. Near the North Pole, the increase in the mean temperature during SSW reaches 10-30 K at altitudes 30-50 km for four pairs of the model runs with the eQBO and wQBO, which is characteristic for the sudden stratospheric warming event. Amplitudes of stationary PWs in the middle atmosphere of the Northern hemisphere may differ up to 30% during wQBO and eQBO before and during the SSW. After the SSW event SPW amplitudes are substantially larger during wQBO phase. PW refractivity indices and Eliassen-Palm flux vectors are calculated. The largest EP-fluxes in the middle atmosphere correspond to PWs with zonal wavenumber m=1. Simulated changes in PW amplitudes correspond to inhomogeneities of the global circulation, refractivity index and EP-flux produced by the changes in QBO phases. Comparisons of differences in PW characteristics and circulation between the wQBO and eQBO show that PWs could provide effective coupling mechanism and transport dynamical changes from local regions of the lower atmosphere to distant regions of the upper atmosphere of both hemispheres.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koushik, N.; Kumar, Karanam Kishore; Ramkumar, Geetha; Subrahmanyam, K. V.
2018-04-01
The changes in zonal mean circulation and meridional temperature gradient brought about by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events in polar middle atmosphere are found to significantly affect the low latitude counterparts. Several studies have revealed the signatures of SSW events in the low latitude Mesosphere- Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region. Using meteor wind radar observations, the present study investigates the response of semidiurnal oscillations and quasi 2-day waves in the MLT region, simultaneously over low latitude and equatorial stations Thumba (8.5oN, 76.5oE) and Kototabang (0.2oS, 100oE). Unlike many case studies, the present analysis examines the response of low and equatorial latitude MLT region to typical polar stratospheric conditions viz., Quiet winter, Major SSW winter and Minor SSW winter. The present results show that (i) the amplitudes of semidiurnal oscillations and quasi 2-day waves in the equatorial and low latitude MLT region enhance in association with major SSW events, (ii) the semidiurnal oscillations show significant enhancement selectively in the zonal and meridional components over the Northern Hemispheric low latitude and the equatorial stations, respectively (iii) The minor SSW event of January 2012 resulted in anomalously large amplitudes of quasi 2- day waves without any notable increase in the amplitude of semidiurnal oscillations. The significance of the present study lies in comprehensively bringing out the signatures of SSW events in the semidiurnal oscillations and quasi 2-day waves in low latitude and equatorial MLT region, simultaneously for the first time over these latitudes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martineau, Patrick; Son, Seok-Woo; Taguchi, Masakazu; Butler, Amy H.
2018-05-01
The agreement between reanalysis datasets, in terms of the zonal-mean momentum budget, is evaluated during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. It is revealed that there is a good agreement among datasets in the lower stratosphere and troposphere concerning zonal-mean zonal wind, but less so in the upper stratosphere. Forcing terms of the momentum equation are also relatively similar in the lower atmosphere, but their uncertainties are typically larger than uncertainties of the zonal-wind tendency. Similar to zonal-wind tendency, the agreement among forcing terms is degraded in the upper stratosphere. Discrepancies among reanalyses increase during the onset of SSW events, a period characterized by unusually large fluxes of planetary-scale waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere, and decrease substantially after the onset. While the largest uncertainties in the resolved terms of the momentum budget are found in the Coriolis torque, momentum flux convergence also presents a non-negligible spread among the reanalyses. Such a spread is reduced in the latest reanalysis products, decreasing the uncertainty of the momentum budget. It is also found that the uncertainties in the Coriolis torque depend on the strength of SSW events: the SSW events that exhibit the most intense deceleration of zonal-mean zonal wind are subject to larger discrepancies among reanalyses. These uncertainties in stratospheric circulation, however, are not communicated to the troposphere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Limpasuvan, Varavut; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Chandran, Amal; Garcia, Rolando R.; Smith, Anne K.
2016-05-01
Based on a climate-chemistry model (constrained by reanalyses below ~50 km), the zonal-mean composite response of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to major sudden stratospheric warming events with elevated stratopauses demonstrates the role of planetary waves (PWs) in driving the mean circulation in the presence of gravity waves (GWs), helping the polar vortex recover and communicating the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) impact across the equator. With the SSW onset, strong westward PW drag appears above 80 km primarily from the dissipation of wave number 1 perturbations with westward period of 5-12 days, generated from below by the unstable westward polar stratospheric jet that develops as a result of the SSW. The filtering effect of this jet also allows eastward propagating GWs to saturate in the winter MLT, providing eastward drag that promotes winter polar mesospheric cooling. The dominant PW forcing translates to a net westward drag above the eastward mesospheric jet, which initiates downwelling over the winter pole. As the eastward polar stratospheric jet returns, this westward PW drag persists above 80 km and acts synergistically with the return of westward GW drag to drive a stronger polar downwelling that warms the pole adiabatically and helps reform the stratopause at an elevated altitude. With the polar wind reversal during the SSW onset, the westward drag by the quasi-stationary PW in the winter stratosphere drives an anomalous equatorial upwelling and cooling that enhance tropical stratospheric ozone. Along with equatorial wind anomalies, this ozone enhancement subsequently amplifies the migrating semidiurnal tide amplitude in the winter midlatitudes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nath, O.; Sridharan, S.
2015-09-01
Chemical composition data obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) instruments onboard EOS-Aura and ENVISAT satellites are used to investigate the variation of ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O) and methane (CH4) volume mixing ratios (VMRs) in the height range 20-60 km over the equatorial region during the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) of 2004, 2009 and 2012, the occurrence of which are identified using the ERA (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis) Interim temperature and zonal wind data sets. It is found that the O3 VMR shows increment whereas H2O VMR shows decrement during the SSW event and the possible reasons for these changes in the VMRs are investigated. In the upper stratosphere, the source of water vapor is oxidation of CH4 which takes place either by hydroxyl (OH) or by atomic oxygen (O). However, the OH VMR available for the year 2009 SSW event does not show any significant variation. The decrease of zonal mean MLS temperature over the equator during the SSW suggests that the rate of the reaction of ozone production (O + O2 ⟶ O3 + M), which increases with decreasing temperature, shifts the O/O3 ratio towards O3, resulting in the decrease of CH4 oxidation and consequent decrease in water vapor.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Hong, Junseok; Kim, Jeong-Han; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Chandran, A.; Rao, S. V. B.; Riggin, Dennis
2016-03-01
A minor stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was noticed in the southern hemisphere (SH) during September (day 259) 2010 along with two episodic warmings in early August (day 212) and late October (day 300) 2010. Among the three warming events, the signature of mesosphere response was detected only for the September event in the mesospheric wind dataset from both meteor radar and MF radar located at King Sejong Station (62°S, 59°W) and Rothera (68°S, 68°W), Antarctica, respectively. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the September SSW event, as has been observed in the 2002 major SSW. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with stratospheric warmings are found in temperatures measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Simulations of specified dynamics version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) are able to reproduce these observed features. The mesospheric wind field was found to differ significantly from that of normal years probably due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSW. From the wavelet analysis of wind data of both stations, we find that strong 14-16 day PWs prevailed prior to the SSW and disappeared suddenly after the SSW in the mesosphere. Our study provides evidence that minor SSWs in SH can result in significant effects on the mesospheric dynamics as in the northern hemisphere.
Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke
2016-01-01
In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013. PMID:27051997
Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke
2016-04-07
In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.
Ionospheric reaction on sudden stratospheric warming events in Russiás Asia region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Polyakova, Anna; Perevalova, Natalya; Chernigovskaya, Marina
2015-12-01
The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was identical for different geophysical conditions.The response of the ionosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Asian region of Russia is studied. Two SSW events observed in 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 winter periods of extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum are considered. To detect the ionospheric effects caused by SSWs, we carried out a joint analysis of global ionospheric maps (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of temperature vertical profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. For the first time, it was found that during strong SSWs, in the mid-latitude ionosphere the amplitude of diurnal TEC variation decreases nearly half compared to quiet days. At the same time, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases. It was also found that at SSW peak the midday TEC maximum decreases, and night/morning TEC values increase compared to quiet days. It was shown that during SSWs, TEC dynamics was
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yasyukevich, A. S.
2018-04-01
The focus of the paper is the ionospheric disturbances during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Arctic region. This study examines the ionospheric behavior during 12 SSW events, which occurred in the Northern Hemisphere over 2006-2013, based on vertical sounding data from DPS-4 ionosonde located in Norilsk (88.0°E, 69.2°N). Most of the addressed events show that despite generally quiet geomagnetic conditions, notable changes in the ionospheric behavior are observed during SSWs. During the SSW evolution and peak phases, there is a daytime decrease in NmF2 values at 10-20% relative to background level. After the SSW maxima, in contrast, midday NmF2 surpasses the average monthly values for 10-20 days. These changes in the electron density are observed for both strong and weak stratospheric warmings occurring at midwinter. The revealed SSW effects in the polar ionosphere are assumed to be associated with changes in the thermospheric neutral composition, affecting the F2-layer electron density. Analysis of the Global Ultraviolet Imager data revealed the positive variations in the O/N2 ratio within the thermosphere during SSW peak and recovery periods. Probable mechanisms for SSW impact on the state of the high-latitude neutral thermosphere and ionosphere are discussed.
How the SSW Can Make the Different Response of Stratosphere to MJO during Boreal Winters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, C.
2016-12-01
Using the ERA-Interim data, we investigated the effects of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on the mid-winter stratosphere in the northern hemisphere focusing on the occurrence or non-occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). In the years in which SSW occurred (SSW years), the polar cap temperature response to MJO is stronger than that in the years in which SSW does not occur (non-SSW years). In the SSW years, the northern polar upper stratosphere temperature becomes warmer than normal at a lag of 15-20 days after the MJO phase 3 (P3). However, in the non-SSW years, the northern polar temperature is cooler 15-20 days after MJO P3, and becomes warmer after this period. The wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) PWs anomalies in the northern stratosphere caused by MJO P3 are just opposite between SSW and non-SSW winters. In response to MJO P3, WN1 and WN2 are responsible for the enhanced upward propagation of EP Flux in non-SSW and SSW winters, respectively. Whether in SSW or non-SSW winters, the variations of WN1 and WN2 PWs have a similar period to that of MJO (30-90 days). In the southern hemisphere, the upward propagation of WN2 PWs is enhanced after 20 days following MJO P3 in SSW winters while it is significantly depressed since 10 days after P3 in non-SSW years. As suggested by composite of residual circulation, the variation of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is in accordance with that of polar temperature.
Stratospheric Sudden Warming Effects on the Upper Thermosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamazaki, Y.; Kosch, M. J.; Emmert, J. T.
2015-12-01
It has been controversial whether a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event has any measurable impact on the upper thermosphere. In this study, we use long-term records of the global average thermospheric total mass density derived from satellite orbital decay data during 1967-2013. This enables, for the first time, a statistical investigation of the thermospheric density response to SSW events. A superposed epoch analysis of 37 SSW events reveals a density reduction of 3-7% at 250-575 km around the time of polar vortex weakening. The temperature perturbation is estimated to be -7.0 K at 400 km. We suggest enhanced wave forcing from the lower atmosphere as a possible cause for the density reduction observed during SSWs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pal, S.; Hobara, Y.; Chakrabarti, S. K.; Schnoor, P. W.
2017-07-01
This paper presents effects of the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event of 2009 on the subionospheric very low frequency/low frequency (VLF/LF) radio signals propagating in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. Signal amplitudes from four transmitters received by VLF/LF radio networks of Germany and Japan corresponding to the major SSW event are investigated for possible anomalies and atmospheric influence on the high- to middle-latitude ionosphere. Significant anomalous increase or decrease of nighttime and daytime amplitudes of VLF/LF signals by ˜3-5 dB during the SSW event have been found for all propagation paths associated with stratospheric temperature rise at 10 hPa level. Increase or decrease in VLF/LF amplitudes during daytime and nighttime is actually due to the modification of the lower ionospheric boundary conditions in terms of electron density and electron-neutral collision frequency profiles and associated modal interference effects between the different propagating waveguide modes during the SSW period. TIMED/SABER mission data are also used to investigate the upper mesospheric conditions over the VLF/LF propagation path during the same time period. We observe a decrease in neutral temperature and an increase in pressure at the height of 75-80 km around the peak time of the event. VLF/LF anomalies are correlated and in phase with the stratospheric temperature and mesospheric pressure variation, while minimum of mesospheric cooling shows a 2-3 day delay with maximum VLF/LF anomalies. Simulations of VLF/LF diurnal variation are performed using the well-known Long Wave Propagating Capability (LWPC) code within the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to explain the VLF/LF anomalies qualitatively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kotova, Darya; Klimenko, Maksim; Klimenko, Vladimir; Zaharov, Veniamin; Bessarab, Fedor; Korenkov, Yuriy
2016-12-01
We have considered the influence of the January 23-27, 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event on HF radio wave propagation in the equatorial ionosphere. This event took place during extremely low solar and geomagnetic activity. We use the simulation results obtained with the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) for simulating environmental changes during the SSW event. We both qualitatively and quantitatively reproduced total electron content disturbances obtained from global ground network receiver observations of GPS navigation satellite signals, by setting an additional electric potential and TIME-GCM model output at a height of 80 km. In order to study the influence of this SSW event on HF radio wave propagation and attenuation, we used the numerical model of radio wave propagation based on geometrical optics approximation. It is shown that the sudden stratospheric warming leads to radio signal attenuation and deterioration of radio communication in the daytime equatorial ionosphere.
Dynamics of the exceptional warming events during the Arctic winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2008/09
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuttippurath, Jayanarayanan; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Lefèvre, Franck; Nikulin, Grigory
2010-05-01
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) are common features of the Arctic meteorology. During a major SSW, polar temperature rises and the zonal mean flow weakens dramatically over a short period of time. This situation causes displacement, distortion or split of the polar vortex. The Arctic winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2008/09 were characterized by major midwinter warming of different proportions. The major warming occurred in early January in 2003/04 and in mid-January in the other winters in the lower stratosphere. The winter 2003/04 was remarkable in that a stable vortex formed again in March 2004 after two months of severe disturbance. No vortex was evident in other winters after the mid-January major warming. The planetary waves 1 and 2 play a key role in warming events and in vortex distortions as they control the stratospheric circulation. The dominating presence and amplitude of these waves were also different in each winter. In this presentation, we characterize the winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2008/09 in terms of chemical and dynamical situation during the winters. In order to illustrate, we exploit the heat flux, zonal wind characteristics, Eliassen-Palm vectors and planetary wave analyzes for the winters in a comparative perspective. The dynamical parameters are derived from ECMWF analyzes and the chemical realm are discussed in terms of the measurements from MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) and POAM (Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement) as well as simulations from the Mimosa-Chim global three-dimensional chemical transport model.
Ionospheric variations during sudden stratospheric warming in the high- and mid-latitude regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yasyukevich, Anna; Voeykov, Sergey; Mylnikova, Anna
2017-04-01
The ionospheric dynamic in the high- and middle-latitude regions during the periods of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) was studied by using the international network of phase dual-frequency GPS/GLONASS receivers and the vertical sounding data. Twelve SSW events that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere 2006 through 2013 were considered. In order to identify the possible response of the ionosphere to SSW events, we carried out the analysis of the total electron (TEC) and the F2-layer maximum electron density (NmF2) deviations from the background level. We have also studied changes of the level of total electron content (TEC) wave-like variations characterized by a special index WTEC. The index reflects the intensity of medium- and large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances. The dynamics of the high- and middle-latitude ionosphere at the points near the SSW areas was found to differ from the regular. For a large number of events, it is shown that, despite quiet geomagnetic conditions, a noticeable decrease in the NmF2 and TEC values (by 5-10% relative to the background level) is observed during the SSW evolution and maximum stages. On the contrary, for 10-20 days after the SSW maxima, NmF2 and TEC significantly exceed the monthly averaged values. Moreover, these electron density changes are observed for both strong and weak stratospheric warmings, and are recorded mainly during daytime. The observed SSW effects in the polar and mid-latitude ionosphere are assumed to be probably associated with the changes in the neutral composition at the thermospheric heights that affect the F2-layer electron density. The study is supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research under Grant No. 16-35-60018, as well as by the RF President Grant of Public Support for RF Leading Scientific Schools (NSh-6894.2016.5).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.
2017-12-01
Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.
Impact of Stratospheric Sudden Warming on East Asian Winter Monsoons
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Quanliang
2017-04-01
Quanliang Chen, Luyang Xu, and Hongke Cai College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology and Plateau Atmospheric and Environment Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China Fifty-two stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events that occurred from 1957 to 2002 were analysed based on the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis dataset. Those that could descent to the troposphere were composited to investigate their impacts on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It reveals that when the SSW occurs, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) are both in the negative phase and that the tropospheric circulations quite wave-like. The Siberian high and the Aleutian low are both strengthened, leading to an increased gradient between the Asian continent and the North Pacific. Hence, strong EAWM is observed with widespread cooling over in land and coastal East Asia. After the peak of the SSW, in contrast, the tropospheric circulation is quite zonally symmetric with negative phases of AO and NPO. The mid-tropospheric East Asian trough deepens and shifts eastward. This configuration facilitates warming over the East AsianinlandandcoolingoverthecoastalEastAsiacenteredoverJapan.Theactivitiesofplanetarywavesduringthelifecycleofthe SSW were analysed. The anomalous propagation and the attendant altered amplitude of the planetary waves can well explain the observed circulation and the EAWM.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klimenko, Vladimir; Klimenko, Maxim; Bessarab, Fedor; Korenkov, Yurij; Karpov, Ivan
The Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is a large-scale phenomenon, which response is detected in the mesosphere, thermosphere and ionosphere. SSW ionospheric effects are studied using multi-instrumental satellites and by ground-based measurements. We report a brief overview of the observational and theoretical results of the global ionospheric response and its formation mechanisms during Sudden Stratospheric Warming. We also present the results of our investigation of thermosphere-ionosphere response to the SSW obtained within the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Protonosphere (GSM TIP). The SSW effects were modeled by specifying various boundary conditions at the height of 80 km in the GSM TIP model: (1) by setting the stationary perturbations s = 1 of the temperature and density at high latitudes; (2) by setting the global distribution of the neutral atmosphere parameters, calculated in the TIME-GCM and CCM SOCOL models for the conditions of the SSW 2009 event. It has been shown that the selected low boundary conditions do not allow to fully reproduce the observed variation in the ionospheric parameters during SSW 2009 event. Based on observations of the velocity of vertical plasma drift obtained by the incoherent scatter radar at Jicamarca, we introduced additional electric potential in the GSM TIP model, which allowed us to reproduce the zonal electric field (ÉB vertical plasma drift) and the observed SSW effects in the low-latitude ionosphere. Furthermore, we tried to reproduce the SSW ionospheric effects by including internal gravity waves in the high-latitude mesosphere. We discuss the model calculation results and possible reasons for model/data disagreements and give the proposals for further investigations. This work was supported by RFBR Grants No.12-05-31217 and No.14-05-00578.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Coy, Lawrence; Pawson, Steven
2014-01-01
We examine the major stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) that occurred on 6 January 2013, using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). Results show that the major SSW of January 2013 falls into the vortex splitting type of SSW, with the initial planetary wave breaking occurring near 10 hPa. The vertical flux of wave activity at the tropopause responsible for the SSW occurred mainly in the Pacific Hemisphere, including the a pulse associated with the preconditioning of the polar vortex by wave 1 identified on 23 December 2012. While most of the vertical wave activity flux was in the Pacific Hemisphere, a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28 December is shown to have produced a strong transient upward wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere coinciding with the peak of the SSW event. In addition, the GEOS-5 5-day forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013 as well as the upper tropospheric disturbances responsible for the warming. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere-troposphere interaction.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedatella, N. M.; Liu, H.-L.; Sassi, F.; Lei, J.; Chau, J. L.; Zhang, X.
2014-05-01
To investigate ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming (SSW), we present simulation results that combine the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended version and the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). The simulations reveal notable enhancements in both the migrating semidiurnal solar (SW2) and lunar (M2) tides during the SSW. The SW2 and M2 amplitudes reach ˜50 m s-1 and ˜40 m s-1, respectively, in zonal wind at E region altitudes. The dramatic increase in the M2 at these altitudes influences the dynamo generation of electric fields, and the importance of the M2 on the ionosphere variability during the 2009 SSW is demonstrated by comparing simulations with and without the M2. TIME-GCM simulations that incorporate the M2 are found to be in good agreement with Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar vertical plasma drifts and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations of the maximum F region electron density. The agreement with observations is worse if the M2 is not included in the simulation, demonstrating that the lunar tide is an important contributor to the ionosphere variability during the 2009 SSW. We additionally investigate sources of the F region electron density variability during the SSW. The primary driver of the electron density variability is changes in electric fields. Changes in meridional neutral winds and thermosphere composition are found to also contribute to the electron density variability during the 2009 SSW. The electron density variability for the 2009 SSW is therefore not solely due to variability in electric fields as previously thought.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Meyer, Jonathan D. D.; Rasch, Philip J.
2017-04-01
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as documented in previous studies. The analysis indicates a recent and seemingly accelerated increase in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. The shorter duration and more rapid transition of tropospheric warming events may connect to the documented increase in midlatitude weather extremes, more so than the route of stratospheric warming type. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated remarkable strengthening of the cold Siberian high manifest in 2016.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying
2017-04-22
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less
Numerical simulation of wave interactions during sudden stratospheric warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gavrilov, N. M.; Koval, A. V.; Pogoreltsev, A. I.; Savenkova, E. N.
2017-11-01
Parameterizations of normal atmospheric modes (NAMs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) are implemented into the mechanistic general circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere (MUA). Numerical experiments of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are performed for climatological conditions typical for January and February using meteorological reanalysis data from the UK MET Office in the MUA model averaged over the years 1992-2011 with the easterly phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The simulation shows that an increase in the OGW amplitudes occurs at altitudes higher than 30 km in the Northern Hemisphere after SSW. The OGW amplitudes have maximums at altitudes of about 50 km over the North American and European mountain systems before and during SSW, as well as over the Himalayas after SSW. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, significant (up to 50-70%) variations in the amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (SPWs) are observed during and after the SSW. Westward travelling NAMs have local amplitude maximums not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the Southern Hemisphere, where there are waveguides for the propagation of these modes. Calculated variations of SPW and NAM amplitudes correspond to changes in the mean temperature and wind fields, as well as the Eliassen-Palm flux and atmospheric refractive index for the planetary waves, during SSW. Including OGW thermal and dynamical effects leads to an increase in amplitude (by 30-70%) of almost all SPWs before and during SSW and to a decrease (up to 20-100%) after the SSW at middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Lin, Yen-Heng; Lee, Ming-Ying
In January 2016, a robust reversal of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) took place associated with a rapid tropospheric warming in the Arctic region; this was followed by the occurrence of a classic sudden stratospheric warming in March-April. The succession of these two distinct Arctic warming events provides a stimulating opportunity to examine their characteristics in terms of similarities and differences. Historical cases of these two types of Arctic warming were identified and validated based upon tropical linkages with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño as well as those documented in previous studies. Our results indicate a recent and accelerated increasemore » in the tropospheric warming type versus a flat trend in stratospheric warming type. Given that tropospheric warming events occur twice as fast than the stratospheric warming type, the noted increase in the former implies further intensification in midlatitude winter weather extremes similar to those experienced in early 2016. Forced simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model suggest that the reduced Arctic sea ice contributes to the observed increase in the tropospheric warming events and associated impact on the anomalously cold Siberia.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vieira, F.; Fagundes, P. R.; Venkatesh, K.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Pillat, V. G.
2017-02-01
The effects of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on ionosphere have been investigated by several scientists, using different observational techniques and model simulations. However, the minor SSW event during January 2012 is one of those that are less studied. Influences of several types of possible drivers—minor SSW event, changing solar flux, moderate geomagnetic storm on 22-25 January, and one of the largest solar proton events on 23-30 January—make it a challenging period to interpret. In the present study, the GPS-total electron content (TEC) measurements from a network of 72 receivers over the Brazilian region are considered. This network of 72 GPS-TEC locations lies between 5°N and 30°S (35°) latitudes and 35°W and 65°W (30°) longitudes. Further, two chains of GPS receivers are used to study the response of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the Brazilian eastern and western sectors, as well as its day-to-day variability before and during the SSW-2012. It was noted that the TEC is depleted to the order of 30% all over the Brazilian region, from equator to beyond the EIA regions and from east to west sectors. It is also noticed that the EIA strengths at the east and west sectors were weakened during the SSW-2012. However, the Brazilian eastern sector was found to be more disturbed compared to the western sector during this SSW-2012 event.
A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Charlton, Andrew J.; Polvani, Lorenza M.; Perlwitz, Judith; Sassi, Fabrizio; Manzini, Elisa; Shibata, Kiyotaka; Pawson, Steven; Nielsen, J. Eric; Rind, David
2007-01-01
The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.
Analysis and Hindcast Experiments of the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming in WACCMX+DART
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedatella, N. M.; Liu, H.-L.; Marsh, D. R.; Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Siddiqui, T. A.
2018-04-01
The ability to perform data assimilation in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version (WACCMX) is implemented using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter. Results are presented demonstrating that WACCMX+DART analysis fields reproduce the middle and upper atmosphere variability during the 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. Compared to specified dynamics WACCMX, which constrains the meteorology by nudging toward an external reanalysis, the large-scale dynamical variability of the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere is improved in WACCMX+DART. This leads to WACCMX+DART better representing the downward transport of chemical species from the mesosphere into the stratosphere following the SSW. WACCMX+DART also reproduces most aspects of the observed variability in ionosphere total electron content and equatorial vertical plasma drift during the SSW. Hindcast experiments initialized on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 January are used to assess the middle and upper atmosphere predictability in WACCMX+DART. A SSW, along with the associated middle and upper atmosphere variability, is initially predicted in the hindcast initialized on 15 January, which is ˜10 days prior to the warming. However, it is not until the hindcast initialized on 20 January that a major SSW is forecast to occur. The hindcast experiments reveal that dominant features of the total electron content can be forecasted ˜10-20 days in advance. This demonstrates that whole atmosphere models that properly account for variability in lower atmosphere forcing can potentially extend the ionosphere-thermosphere forecast range.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siddiqui, T. A.; Yamazaki, Y.; Stolle, C.; Lühr, H.; Matzka, J.
2017-12-01
A number of studies in recent years have reported about the lunar tidal enhancements in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) from ground- and space-based magnetometer measurements during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events. In this study, we make use of the ground magnetometer recordings at Huancayo observatory in Peru for the years 1978 - 2013 to derive a relationship between the lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ and tropospheric eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa during the SSW events. Tropospheric eddy heat fluxes are used to quantify the amount of wave activity entering the stratosphere. Anomalously large upward wave activity is known to precede the polar vortex breakdown during SSWs. We make use of the superposed epoch analysis method to determine the temporal relations between lunar tidal enhancements and eddy heat flux anomalies during SSWs, in order to demonstrate the causal relationship between these two phenomena. We also compare the lunar tidal enhancements and eddy heat flux anomalies for vortex split and for vortex displaced SSWs. It is found that larger lunar tidal enhancements are recorded for vortex split events, as compared to vortex displaced events. This confirms earlier observation; larger heat flux anomalies are recorded during vortex split SSW events than the heat flux anomalies during vortex displaced SSW events. Further, the temporal relations of lunar tidal enhancements in the EEJ have been compared separately for both the QBO phases and with the phases of the moon with respect to the central epoch of SSWs by means of the superposed epoch analysis approach. The EEJ lunar tidal enhancements in the east phase of QBO are found to be larger than the lunar tidal enhancements in the west phase of QBO. The phase of moon relative to the central SSW epoch also affects the lunar tidal enhancement in the EEJ. It is found that the lunar tidal enhancements are significantly larger when the day of new or full moon lies near the central SSW epoch, as compared
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Manney, Gloria L.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Krueger, Kirstin; Santee, Michelle L.; Pawson, Steven; Lee, Jae N.; Daffer, William H.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.
2009-01-01
A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2009 was the strongest and most prolonged on record. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations are used to provide an overview of dynamics and transport during the 2009 SSW, and to compare with the intense, long-lasting SSW in January 2006. The Arctic polar vortex split during the 2009 SSW, whereas the 2006 SSW was a vortex displacement event. Winds reversed to easterly more rapidly and reverted to westerly more slowly in 2009 than in 2006. More mixing of trace gases out of the vortex during the decay of the vortex fragments, and less before the fulfillment of major SSW criteria, was seen in 2009 than in 2006; persistent well-defined fragments of vortex and anticyclone air were more prevalent in 2009. The 2009 SSW had a more profound impact on the lower stratosphere than any previously observed SSW, with no significant recovery of the vortex in that region. The stratopause breakdown and subsequent reformation at very high altitude, accompanied by enhanced descent into a rapidly strengthening upper stratospheric vortex, were similar in 2009 and 2006. Many differences between 2006 and 2009 appear to be related to the different character of the SSWs in the two years.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith-Johnsen, Christine; Orsolini, Yvan; Stordal, Frode; Limpasuvan, Varavut; Pérot, Kristell
2018-03-01
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) affect the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Major warmings occur roughly every second winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), but has only been observed once in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), during the Antarctic winter of 2002. Observations by the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS, an instrument on board Envisat) during this rare event, show a 40% increase of ozone in the nighttime secondary ozone layer at subpolar latitudes compared to non-SSW years. This study investigates the cause of the mesospheric nighttime ozone increase, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics (SD-WACCM). The 2002 SH winter was characterized by several reductions of the strength of the polar night jet in the upper stratosphere before the jet reversed completely, marking the onset of the major SSW. At the time of these wind reductions, corresponding episodic increases can be seen in the modelled nighttime secondary ozone layer. This ozone increase is attributed largely to enhanced upwelling and the associated cooling of the altitude region in conjunction with the wind reversal. This is in correspondence to similar studies of SSW induced ozone enhancements in NH. But unlike its NH counterpart, the SH secondary ozone layer appeared to be impacted less by episodic variations in atomic hydrogen. Seasonally decreasing atomic hydrogen plays however a larger role in SH compared to NH.
Impact of Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Occurrence of the Equatorial Spread-F
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jose, Lijo; Vineeth, C.; Pant, T. K.
2017-12-01
This study presents the influence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events in modulating the start time of the equatorial spread-F (ESF) through enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity during the winter months of the SSW years. The analysis based on the data from a digital ionosonde and proton precession magnetometer over Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E, 0.5°N dip lat.) revealed that the PWs of quasi-16 day periodicity influence the start time of the ESF to a significant extent during the SSW years. On the other hand, during a normal year such effect is not very evidently present. It has been observed that the quasi-16 day wave propagates to ionospheric dynamo region from the atmosphere below and modifies the electrodynamical processes like the equatorial electrojet and prereversal enhancement, which is more pronounced during both the SSW periods. Such a modification in the electrodynamics can modulate the equatorial plasma fountain and influence the F region neutral dynamics, which in turn can affect the occurrence of ESF by modifying the seeding conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bolaji, O. S.; Oyeyemi, E. O.; Adewale, A. O.; Wu, Q.; Okoh, D.; Doherty, P. H.; Kaka, R. O.; Abbas, M.; Owolabi, C.; Jidele, P. A.
2017-11-01
In Africa, we assessed the performance of all the three options of International Reference Ionosphere 2012, IRI-2012 (i.e. IRI-2001, IRI-2001COR and IRI-NeQuick), NeQuick-2 and IRI-Plas 2015 models prior to and during 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event to predict equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest locations and their magnitudes using total electron content (TEC) from experimental records of Global Positioning System (GPS). We confirmed that the IRI-Plas 2015 that appeared as the best compared to all of the models as regard prediction of the EIA crest locations in the northern hemisphere of Africa is due to discontinuities in the GPS data between ∼8° N and 22° N. As regard the predictions of EIA crest magnitudes and the location of EIA crests in the southern hemisphere of Africa, they are not present in all the models. The NeQuick-2 model does not have the capability to predict either the EIA crest location in the northern or southern hemisphere. The SSW effect on the low latitude was able to modify a single EIA crest to pre-noon and post noon EIA crests in the northern hemisphere during the SSW peak phase and significantly reduced the GPS TEC magnitudes over the hemispheres as well. These SSW effects and delays of plasma transportation to higher latitudes in GPS TEC were absent in all the models. For future improvements of IRI-2012, NeQuick-2 and IRI-Plas 2015 models, SSW conditions should be included in order to characterize the effect of lower atmosphere on the ionosphere. The EIA trough modeling is only present in IRI-2001COR and IRI-2001NeQuick options. In the middle latitude, all the model could not predict the location of highest TEC magnitudes found at RBAY (Richardsbay, South Africa).
Park, Hyosun; Yoon, Haesang
2007-12-01
The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of intravenous fluid warming and skin surface warming on peri-operative body temperature and acid base balance of abdominal surgical patients under general anesthesia. Data collection was performed from January 4th, to May 31, 2004. The intravenous fluid warming(IFW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed through an IV line by an Animec set to 37 degrees C. The skin surface warming (SSW) group (30 elderly patients) was warmed by a circulating-water blanket set to 38 degrees C under the back and a 60W heating lamp 40 cm above the chest. The warming continued from induction of general anesthesia to two hours after completion of surgery. Collected data was analyzed using Repeated Measures ANOVA, and Bonferroni methods. SSW was more effective than IFW in preventing hypothermia(p= .043), preventing a decrease of HCO(3)(-)(p= .000) and preventing base excess (p= .000) respectively. However, there was no difference in pH between the SSW and IFW (p= .401) groups. We conclude that skin surface warming is more effective in preventing hypothermia, and HCO(3)(-) and base excess during general anesthesia, and returning to normal body temperature after surgery than intravenous fluid warming; however, skin surface warming wasn't able to sustain a normal body temperature in elderly patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Liu, Huixin; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Lee, Jaewook
2017-08-01
We have investigated the coupling between the stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during 2010 minor sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Three episodic SSWs were noticed in 2010. Mesospheric zonal winds between 82 and 92 km obtained from King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) meteor radar showed the significant difference from usual trend. The zonal wind reversal in the mesosphere is noticed a week before the associated SSW similar to 2002 major SSW. The mesosphere wind reversal is also noticed in "Specified Dynamics" version of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) and Ground-to-topside model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA) simulations. The similar zonal wind weakening/reversal in the lower thermosphere between 100 and 140 km is simulated by GAIA. Further, we observed the mesospheric cooling in consistency with SSWs using Microwave Limb Sounder data. However, the GAIA simulations showed warming between 130 and 140 km after few days of SSW. Thus, the observation and model simulation indicate for the first time that the 2010 minor SSW also affects dynamics of the MLT region over SH in a manner similar to 2002 major SSW.[Figure not available: see fulltext.
On the Seasonality of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reichler, T.; Horan, M.
2017-12-01
The downward influence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) creates significant tropospheric circulation anomalies that last for weeks. It is therefore of theoretical and practical interest to understand the time when SSWs are most likely to occur and the controlling factors for the temporal distribution of SSWs. Conceivably, the distribution between mid-winter and late-winter is controlled by the interplay between decreasing eddy convergence in the region of the polar vortex and the weakening strength of the polar vortex. General circulation models (GCMs) tend to produce SSW maxima later in winter than observations, which has been considered as a model deficiency. However, the observed record is short, suggesting that under-sampling of SSWs may contribute to this discrepancy. Here, we study the climatological frequency distribution of SSWs and related events in a long control simulation with a stratosphere resolving GCM. We also create a simple statistical model to determine the primary factors controlling the SSW distribution. The statistical model is based on the daily climatological mean, standard deviation, and autocorrelation of stratospheric winds, and assumes that the winds follow a normal distribution. We find that the null hypothesis, that model and observations stem from the same distribution, cannot be rejected, suggesting that the mid-winter SSW maximum seen in the observations is due to sampling uncertainty. We also find that the statistical model faithfully reproduces the seasonal distribution of SSWs, and that the decreasing climatological strength of the polar vortex is the primary factor for it. We conclude that the late-winter SSW maximum seen in most models is realistic and that late events will be more prominent in future observations. We further conclude that SSWs simply form the tail of normally distributed stratospheric winds, suggesting that there is a continuum of weak polar vortex states and that statistically there is nothing special
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, J.; Lin, C.; Chang, L. C.; Liu, H.; Chen, W.; Chen, C.; Liu, J. G.
2013-12-01
In this paper, ionospheric electron densities obtained from radio occultation soundings of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC are decomposed into their various constituent tidal components for studying the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) effects on the ionosphere during 2008-2010. The tidal analysis indicates that the amplitudes of the zonal mean and major migrating tidal components (DW1, SW2 and TW3) decrease around the time of the SSW, with phase/time shifts in the daily time of maximum around EIA and middle latitudes. Meanwhile consistent enhancements of the SW2 and nonmigrating SW1 tides are seen after the stratospheric temperature increase. In addition to the amplitude changes of the tidal components, well matched phase shifts of the ionospheric migrating tides and the stratospheric temperatures are found for the three SSW events, suggesting a good indicator of the ionospheric response. Although the conditions of the planetary waves and the mean winds in the middle atmosphere region during the 2008-2010 SSW events may be different, similar variations of the ionospheric tidal components and their associated phase shifts are found. Futher, these ionospheric responses will be compared with realistic simulations of Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesophere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) by nudging Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chau, J. L.; Hoffmann, P.; Pedatella, N. M.; Matthias, V.
2014-12-01
In recent years, there have been a series of reported ground- and satellite-based observations of lunar tide signatures in the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere around sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. More recently, Pedatella et al. [2014], using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended version (WACCM-X) and the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) has demonstrated that the semi-diurnal lunar tide (M2) is an important contributor to the ionosphere variability during the 2009 SSW. Although the model results were focused on the low-latitude ionosphere and compare with Jicamarca electric fields, Pedatella et al. [2014] also reported that the M2 was enhanced in the northern mid and high latitudes (between 30 and 70oN) at mesospheric and lower thermospheric altitudes during the 2009 SSW. Motivated by this finding, we have analyzed winds from 80 to 100 kms obtained with meteor radars from Juliusruh (54oN) and Andøya (69oN) stations during five SSWs (2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013). By fitting the usual solar components (diurnal and semidiurnal and M2, we have been able to identify clearly the enhancement of the M2 as well as the semi diurnal solar tide during all these SSWs. The qualitative agreement with the Pedatella et al. [2014] simulations is very good, i.e., stronger signature at 54oN than at 69oN and enhanced around SSW. The analysis of other SSWs not only show the clear relationship with SSWs, but also the different behaviors in strength, time of occurrence, duration, etc., that appear to be associated to the mean wind dynamics as well as the stratospheric planetary wave characteristics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Yongha; Sunkara, Eswaraiah; Hong, Junseok; Ratnam, Venkat; Chandran, Amal; Rao, Svb; Riggin, Dennis
2015-04-01
The mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) response to extremely rare minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events was observed for the first time in the southern hemisphere (SH) during 2010 and is investigated using the meteor radar located at King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W), Antarctica. Three episodic SSWs were noticed from early August to late October 2010. The mesospheric wind field was found to significantly differ from normal years due to enhanced planetary wave (PW) activity before the SSWs and secondary PWs in the MLT afterwards. The zonal winds in the mesosphere reversed approximately a week before the SSW occurrence in the stratosphere as has been observed 2002 major SSW, suggesting the downward propagation of disturbance during minor SSWs as well. Signatures of mesospheric cooling (MC) in association with SSWs are found in the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. SD-WACCM simulations are able to produce these observed features.
Repetitive mammalian dwarfing during ancient greenhouse warming events
D’Ambrosia, Abigail R.; Clyde, William C.; Fricke, Henry C.; Gingerich, Philip D.; Abels, Hemmo A.
2017-01-01
Abrupt perturbations of the global carbon cycle during the early Eocene are associated with rapid global warming events, which are analogous in many ways to present greenhouse warming. Mammal dwarfing has been observed, along with other changes in community structure, during the largest of these ancient global warming events, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum [PETM; ~56 million years ago (Ma)]. We show that mammalian dwarfing accompanied the subsequent, smaller-magnitude warming event known as Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 [ETM2 (~53 Ma)]. Statistically significant decrease in body size during ETM2 is observed in two of four taxonomic groups analyzed in this study and is most clearly observed in early equids (horses). During ETM2, the best-sampled lineage of equids decreased in size by ~14%, as opposed to ~30% during the PETM. Thus, dwarfing appears to be a common evolutionary response of some mammals during past global warming events, and the extent of dwarfing seems related to the magnitude of the event. PMID:28345031
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Remya, R.; Kottayil, Ajil; Mohanakumar, K.
2017-07-01
This study demonstrates the variability in Western Disturbance during the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) period and its eventual influence on the north Indian weather pattern. The modulations in the north Indian winter under the two phases of the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during SSW periods are also examined. The analysis has been carried out by using the ERA interim reanalysis dataset for different pressure levels in the stratosphere and upper troposphere during the time period of 1980-2010. The daily minimum surface temperature data published by India Meteorological Department from 1969 to 2013 has been used for the analysis of temperature anomaly over north India during SSW. The period of intense stratospheric warming witnesses a downward propagation and intensification of kinetic energy from stratosphere to upper troposphere over the Mediterranean and Caspian Sea. When QBO is in easterly phase, the cooling over north India is much larger when compared to the westerly phase during instances of SSW. SSW coincident with the easterly phase of QBO causes an intensified subtropical jet over the mid-latitude regions. The modulation in circulation pattern in stratosphere and upper troposphere when ENSO occurs during SSW period is also analysed separately. This study provides the link among SSW, Western Disturbances and the north Indian cooling during winter season.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siddiqui, Tarique A.; Stolle, Claudia; Lühr, Hermann
2017-03-01
The effects of coupling between different layers of the atmosphere during Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) events have been studied quite extensively in the past few years, and in this context large lunitidal enhancements in the equatorial ionosphere have also been widely discussed. In this study we report about the longitudinal variabilities in lunitidal enhancement in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) during SSWs through ground and space observations in the Peruvian and Indian sectors. We observe that the amplification of lunitidal oscillations in EEJ is significantly larger over the Peruvian sector in comparison to the Indian sector. We further compare the lunitidal oscillations in both the sectors during the 2005-2006 and 2008-2009 major SSW events and during a non-SSW winter of 2006-2007. It is found that the lunitidal amplitude in EEJ over the Peruvian sector showed similar enhancements during both the major SSWs, but the enhancements were notably different in the Indian sector. Independent from SSW events, we have also performed a climatological analysis of the lunar modulation of the EEJ during December solstice over both the sectors by using 10 years of CHAMP magnetic measurements and found larger lunitidal amplitudes over the Peruvian sector confirming the results from ground magnetometer observations. We have also analyzed the semidiurnal lunar tidal amplitude in neutral temperature measurements from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) at 110 km and found lesser longitudinal variability than the lunitidal amplitude in EEJ. Our results suggest that the longitudinal variabilities in lunitidal modulation of the EEJ during SSWs could be related to electrodynamics in the E region dynamo.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maute, A.; Hagan, M. E.; Yudin, V.; Liu, H.-L.; Yizengaw, E.
2015-06-01
During stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) periods large changes in the low-latitude vertical drift have been observed at Jicamarca as well as in other longitudinal sectors. In general, a strengthening of the daytime maximum vertical drift with a shift from prenoon to the afternoon is observed. During the January 2013 stratospheric warming significant longitudinal differences in the equatorial vertical drift were observed. At Jicamarca the previously reported SSW behavior prevails; however, no shift of the daytime maximum drift was exhibited in the African sector. Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) the possible causes for the longitudinal difference are examined. The timing of the strong SSW effect in the vertical drift (15-20 January) coincides with moderate geomagnetic activity. The simulation indicates that approximately half of the daytime vertical drift increase in the American sector may be related to the moderate geophysical conditions (Kp = 4) with the effect being negligible in the African sector. The simulation suggests that the wind dynamo accounts for approximately 50% of the daytime vertical drift in the American sector and almost 100% in the African sector. The simulation agrees with previous findings that the migrating solar tides and the semidiurnal westward propagating tide with zonal wave number 1 (SW1) mainly contribute to the daytime wind dynamo and vertical drift. Numerical experiments suggest that the neutral wind and the geomagnetic main field contribute to the presence (absence) of a local time shift in the daytime maximum drift in the American (African) sector.
Increasing frequency and duration of Arctic winter warming events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graham, R. M.; Cohen, L.; Petty, A.; Boisvert, L.; Rinke, A.; Hudson, S. R.; Nicolaus, M.; Granskog, M. A.
2017-12-01
Record low Arctic sea ice extents were observed during the last three winter seasons (March). During each of these winters, near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed, in situ, over sea ice in the central Arctic. Recent media reports and scientific studies suggest that such winter warming events were unprecedented for the Arctic. Here we use in situ winter (December-March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. The earliest record we find of a winter warming event was in March 1896, where a temperature of -3.7˚C was observed at 84˚N during the Fram expedition. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Despite a limited observational network, temperatures exceeding -5°C were measured in situ during more than 30% of winters from 1954 to 2010, by either North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Correlation coefficients between the atmospheric reanalysis, ERA-Interim, and these in-situ temperature records are shown to be on the order of 0.90. This suggests that ERA-Interim is a suitable tool for studying Arctic winter warming events. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979-2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m > -10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). We find a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Y.; Lee, J.; Eswaraiah, S.; Ratnam, M. V.
2017-12-01
In the present study, we study the teleconnections between the tropical and polar region during the Southern Hemisphere (SH) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) as well as the effect of SH SSWs on the modification of global mean atmospheric circulation. By analyzing the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data and Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements both at the equatorial and polar region during the SH SSW events of 2002 and 2010, we find that; (i) the zero-wind line in the stratosphere appeared over the tropics ˜90 days prior to the 2002 SSW and progressed toward the south pole, thus satisfying the preconditioning for planetary wave (PW) propagation as suggested in the model study; (ii) an enhanced 16-day PW activity, along with the zero-wind line, is noted from the equator to the south pole, and (iii) during the 2010 SSW strong anti-correlation between the polar and equatorial temperatures occurred both in the stratosphere and the mesosphere. We interpret these characteristics as a possible teleconnection between the two regions through the intensification of 16-day PW. This is the first observational study over SH that reveals some novel features of the SSW and its connection to the equatorial region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCormack, J. P.; Sassi, F.; Hoppel, K.; Ma, J.; Eckermann, S. D.
2015-12-01
We investigate the evolution of neutral atmospheric dynamics in the 10-100 km altitude range before, during, and after recent stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) using a prototype high-altitude version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), which combines a 4-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system with a 3-time-level semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit global forecast model. In addition to assimilating conventional meteorological observations, NAVGEM also assimilates middle atmospheric temperature and constituent observations from both operational and research satellite platforms to provide global synoptic meteorological analyses of winds, temperatures, ozone, and water vapor from the surface to ~90 km. In this study, NAVGEM analyses are used to diagnose the spatial and temporal evolution of the main dynamical drivers in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) before, during, and after specific SSW events during the 2009-2013 period when large disturbances were observed in the thermosphere/ionosphere (TI) region. Preliminary findings show strong modulation of the semidiurnal tide in the MLT during the onset of an SSW. To assess the impact of the neutral atmosphere dynamical variability on the TI system, NAVGEM analyses are used to constrain simulations of select SSW events using the specified dynamics (SD) configuration of the extended Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-X).
Signature of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming in the near-ground 7Be flux.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pacini, A. A.
2015-12-01
We present here a study of the impact of one Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) upon the atmospheric vertical dynamics based on 7Be measurements in near ground air, using both numerical and conceptual. In late September 2002, an unprecedented SSW event occurred in the southern hemisphere (SH), causing changes in the tropospheric circulation, ozone depletion and weakening of the polar jet in the mesosphere. There is an observational evidence suggesting that anomalies in the stratosphere play an important role in driving tropospheric weather producing tropospheric changes that can persists for up to 60 days in NH and up to about 90 days in the SH, as observed after the 2002 SSW (Thompson et al., 2005). Radioactive environmental techniques for tracing large-scale air-mass transport have been applied in studies of atmospheric dynamics for decades and they are becoming more and more precise due to the improvement of the instrumental sensitivity and associated modeling. Temporal variations of the cosmogenic 7Be concentration in the near-surface atmosphere can provide information on the air mass dynamics, precipitation patterns, stratosphere-troposphere coupling and cosmic ray variations. The present study is based on an analysis of 7Be concentration measured in near-ground air in the city of Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil between 1987 and 2009. Using a simplified tropospheric 7Be model deposition based on a two-layer transport model, Pacini (2011) reported that the occurrence of strong downward air flux leave an imprint of the 3D motion of air masses to the near-ground air 7Be data in the studied region. In this work, we have further developed the two-layer model by adding one more layer: the lower stratosphere (LS). In normal conditions, the contribution of the LS 7Be to the near-ground isotopic variability would be very small. On the other hand, stratospheric source can be crucial for the SSW event, indicating that a strong stratospheric air intrusion
Rossby Wave Propagation into the Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere: The Role of Zonal Phase Speed
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Martius, Olivia; Jiménez-Esteve, Bernat
2018-02-01
Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events are to a dominant part induced by upward propagating planetary waves. While theory predicts that the zonal phase speed of a tropospheric wave forcing affects wave propagation into the stratosphere, its relevance for SSW events has so far not been considered. This study shows in a linear wave diagnostic and in reanalysis data that phase speeds tend eastward as waves propagate upward, indicating that the stratosphere preselects eastward phase speeds for propagation, especially for zonal wave number 2. This also affects SSW events: Split SSW events tend to be preceded by anomalously eastward zonal phase speeds. Zonal phase speed may indeed explain part of the increased wave flux observed during the preconditioning of SSW events, as, for example, for the record 2009 SSW event.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Roble, R. G.; Richmond, A. D.; Yudin, V. A.; Liu, H.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Burns, A. G.; Maruyama, N.
2013-12-01
The ionosphere-thermosphere system is not only influenced from geospace but also by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of GPS TEC during the current solar cycle have shown that the meteorological variability is important during solar minimum, but also can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to help understand the mechanisms that couple the lower and upper atmosphere over the solar cycle. Numerical modelers invoke different methods to simulate realistic, specified events of meteorological variability, e.g. specify the lower boundary forcing, nudge the middle atmosphere, data assimilation. To study the vertical coupling, we first need to assess the numerical models and the various methods used to simulate realistic events with respect to the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the electrodynamics, and the ionosphere. This study focuses on Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) periods since these are associated with a strongly disturbed middle atmosphere which can have effects up to the ionosphere. We will use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation model (TIME-GCM) to examine several recent SSW periods, e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2013. The SSW period in TIME-GCM will be specified in three different ways: 1. using reanalysis data to specify the lower boundary; 2. nudging the neutral atmosphere (temperature and winds) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) results; 3. nudging the background atmosphere (temperature and winds) with WACCM/GEOS5 results. The different forcing methods will be evaluated for the SSW periods with respect to the dynamics of the MLT region, the low latitude vertical drift changes, and the ionospheric effects for the different SSW periods. With the help of ionospheric data at different longitudinal sectors it will be possible to
Warm-season severe wind events in Germany
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gatzen, Christoph
2013-04-01
A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.
A modeling paradigm for interdisciplinary water resources modeling: Simple Script Wrappers (SSW)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steward, David R.; Bulatewicz, Tom; Aistrup, Joseph A.; Andresen, Daniel; Bernard, Eric A.; Kulcsar, Laszlo; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Staggenborg, Scott A.; Welch, Stephen M.
2014-05-01
Holistic understanding of a water resources system requires tools capable of model integration. This team has developed an adaptation of the OpenMI (Open Modelling Interface) that allows easy interactions across the data passed between models. Capabilities have been developed to allow programs written in common languages such as matlab, python and scilab to share their data with other programs and accept other program's data. We call this interface the Simple Script Wrapper (SSW). An implementation of SSW is shown that integrates groundwater, economic, and agricultural models in the High Plains region of Kansas. Output from these models illustrates the interdisciplinary discovery facilitated through use of SSW implemented models. Reference: Bulatewicz, T., A. Allen, J.M. Peterson, S. Staggenborg, S.M. Welch, and D.R. Steward, The Simple Script Wrapper for OpenMI: Enabling interdisciplinary modeling studies, Environmental Modelling & Software, 39, 283-294, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.006 http://code.google.com/p/simple-script-wrapper/
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, J.; Zhang, D.
2017-12-01
With datasets of electron density, neutral wind, ionosonde, neutral temperature, and geomagnetism, we studied the low-latitudinal ionosphere in East-Asia sector during Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) Event in 2016/2017 winter, and some periodic variations in several parameters were revealed. A notable quasi-14.5-day (Q14.5D) period was detected in the strength and location of the northern equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) crest shown with total electron content (TEC). As comparison, northern EIA crest in the American sector had similar characters. With data from Wuhan meteor radar and Yunnan MF radar, we found that, within altitude ranging from 80-100 km, wind field also showed above-mentioned periodic variation, which varied in different heights and stations. The Q14.5D period was also revealed in critical frequency (foF2) and peak altitude (hmF2) of F2 layer from two ionosonde stations in southern China. From electron density of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and TEC of Metop-A, it was shown that this period component is also noticeable in the topside ionosphere above 800 km. However, this character is different in EEJ, of which the Morlet wavelet showed higher strength in quasi-7.5-day period compared to its Q14.5D component.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erhardt, T.; Capron, E.; Rasmussen, S.; Schuepbach, S.; Bigler, M.; Fischer, H.
2017-12-01
During the last glacial period proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere document a succession of rapid millennial-scale warming events, called Dansgaard Oeschger (DO) events. Marine proxy records from the Atlantic also reveal, that some of the warming events where preceded by large ice rafting events, referred to as Heinrich events. Different mechanisms have been proposed, that can produce DO-like warming in model experiments, however the progression and plausible trigger of the events and their possible interplay with the Heinrich events is still unknown. Because of their fast nature, the progression is challenging to reconstruct from paleoclimate data due to the temporal resolution achievable in many archives and cross-dating uncertainties between records. We use new high-resolution multi-proxy records of sea-salt and terrestrial aerosol concentrations over the period 10-60 ka from two Greenland deep ice cores in conjunction with local precipitation and temperature proxy records from one of the cores to investigate the progression of environmental changes at the onset of the individual warming events. The timing differences are then used to explore whether the DO warming events that terminate Heinrich-Stadials progressed differently in comparison to those after Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Our analysis indicates no difference in the progression of the warming terminating Heinrich-Stadials and Non-Heinrich-Stadials. Combining the evidence from all warming events in the period, our analysis shows a consistent lead of the changes in both local precipitation and terrestrial dust aerosol concentrations over the change in sea-salt aerosol concentrations and local temperature by approximately one decade. This implies that both the moisture transport to Greenland and the intensity of the Asian winter monsoon changed before the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic was reduced, rendering a collapse of the sea-ice cover as a trigger for the DO events unlikely.
SSW-directed low-angled extension on Makronisos, Western Cyclades, Greece
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rice, A. H. N.; Huet, B.; Grasemann, B.; Soukis, K.; Tschegg, C.
2012-04-01
Makronisos is the most northwesterly island in the Western Cycladic archipelago, lying only a few kilometres from the Attica mainland port of Lavrion. The island is pencil-shaped, 13 km long (NNE-SSW) by 2.5 km wide, with a single axial ridge irregularly rising from 120 m in the south to 260 m in the north. Most of the island comprises a sequence of schists and interlayered blue-grey marbles that exhibit chocolate-tablet pinch-and-swell. The tectonostratigraphically highest level of the central to northern parts of the island consists of pale coloured calcite ultramylonites overlying cataclastically deformed schists. These form outliers on the crest of the island and also crop-out along the west and east coasts. Stretching lineations in all units trend NNE-SSW and all shear criteria indicate a top-to-SSW shear-sense (S-C-Ć, asymmetric porphyroclasts). Large-scale (~0.35 km wavelength) upright folds, with axes parallel to the stretching direction, control the overall outcrop pattern. The style of deformation is consistent with that found in more southeasterly parts of the W. Cyclades (Kea, Kythnos, Serifos) and also to that seen in the adjacent Attica mainland and confirms the continuity of top-to-SSE extension in that part of the Aegean. These observations allow the tectonostratigraphy of the mainland to be correlated with that of the W. Cyclades and hence a scenario for the exhumation of the metamorphic units in this region to be proposed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sox, L.; Wickwar, V. B.; Fish, C. S.; Herron, J. P.
2014-12-01
Mesospheric temperature anomalies associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) have been observed extensively in the polar regions. However, observations of these anomalies at midlatitudes are sparse. The very dense 11-year data set, collected between 1993-2004, with the Rayleigh-scatter lidar at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO; 41.7°N, 111.8°W) at the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences (CASS) on the campus of Utah State University (USU), has been carefully examined for such anomalies. The temperatures derived from these data extend over the mesosphere, from 45 to 90 km. During this period extensive data were acquired during seven major SSW events. In this work we aim to determine the characteristics of the midlatitude mesospheric temperatures during these seven major SSWs. To do this, comparisons were made between the temperature profiles on individual nights before, during, and after the SSW events and the corresponding derived climatological temperature profiles (31-day by 11-year average) for those nights. A consistent disturbance pattern was observed in the mesospheric temperatures during these SSWs. A distinct shift from the nominal winter temperature pattern to a pattern more characteristic of summer temperatures was seen in the midlatitude mesosphere close to when the zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (at 10 hPa, 60° N) reversed from eastward to westward. This shift lasted for several days. This change in pattern included coolings in the upper mesosphere, comparable to those seen in the polar regions, and warmings in the lower mesosphere.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Manney, Gloria L.; Krueger, Kirstin; Pawson, Steven; Schwartz, Michael J.; Daffer, William H.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III; Waters, Joe W.
2007-01-01
Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data show the polar stratopause, usually higher than and separated from that at midlatitudes, dropping from <55-60 to near 30 km, and cooling dramatically in January 2006 during a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). After a nearly isothermal period, a cool stratopause reforms near 75 km in early February, then drops to <55 km and warms. The stratopause is separated in longitude as well as latitude, with lowest temperatures in the transition regions between higher and lower stratopauses. Operational assimilated meteorological analyses, which are not constrained by data at stratopause altitude, do not capture a secondary temperature maximum that overlies the stratopause or the very high stratopause that reforms after the SSW; they underestimate the stratopause altitude variation during the SSW. High-quality daily satellite temperature measurements are invaluable in improving our understanding of stratopause evolution and its representation in models and assimilation systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klimenko, M. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Bessarab, F. S.; Korenkov, Yu N.; Liu, Hanli; Goncharenko, L. P.; Tolstikov, M. V.
2015-09-01
This paper presents a study of mesosphere and low thermosphere influence on ionospheric disturbances during 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. This period was characterized by extremely low solar and geomagnetic activity. The study was performed using two first principal models: thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) and global self-consistent model of thermosphere, ionosphere, and protonosphere (GSM TIP). The stratospheric anomalies during SSW event were modeled by specifying the temperature and density perturbations at the lower boundary of the TIME-GCM (30 km altitude) according to data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Then TIME-GCM output at 80 km was used as lower boundary conditions for driving GSM TIP model runs. We compare models' results with ground-based ionospheric data at low latitudes obtained by GPS receivers in the American longitudinal sector. GSM TIP simulation predicts the occurrence of the quasi-wave vertical structure in neutral temperature disturbances at 80-200 km altitude, and the positive and negative disturbances in total electron content at low latitude during the 2009 SSW event. According to our model results the formation mechanisms of the low-latitude ionospheric response are the disturbances in the n(O)/n(N2) ratio and thermospheric wind. The change in zonal electric field is key mechanism driving the ionospheric response at low latitudes, but our model results do not completely reproduce the variability in zonal electric fields (vertical plasma drift) at low latitudes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sridharan, S.
2017-10-01
The Global Positioning System deduced total electron content (TEC) data at 15°N (geomagnetic), which is the crest region of equatorial ionization anomaly, are used to study tidal variabilities during the 2013 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. The results from space-time spectral analysis reveal that the amplitudes of migrating diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides are larger than those of nonmigrating tides. After the SSW onset, the amplitudes of DW1, SW2, SW1, and DS0 increase. Moreover, they show 16 day variations similar to the periodicity of the high-latitude stratospheric planetary wave (PW), suggesting that the nonmigrating tides (SW1 and DS0) are possibly generated due to nonlinear interaction of migrating tides with PW. Similar spectral analysis on temperature at 10°N obtained from the Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) shows that the SW2 enhances at stratospheric heights and the SW2 is more dominant at 80-90 km, but its amplitude decreases around 100 km. The amplitudes of nonmigrating tides become comparable to those of SW2 around 100 km, and their contribution becomes increasingly important at higher heights. This suggests that the nonlinear interaction between migrating tides and PW occurs at low-latitude upper mesospheric heights, as SW2 exhibits 16 day periodicity in SABER temperature at 100 km as observed in TEC. Besides, it is observed that the eastward propagating tides are less dominant than westward propagating tides in both TEC and SABER temperatures.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Song, Byeong-Gwon; Chun, Hye-Yeong; Kim, Young-Ha
2015-04-01
A composite analysis for 21 stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) cases in 1979-2012 northern winter is performed using the MERRA reanalysis in order to investigate the changes in residual circulation and temperature during the SSW evolution. The SSW cases are classified as Type-1 and Type-2, based on the relative amplitude of planetary waves with zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. The residual circulation induced by each forcing term in the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) equation and the temperature advection associated with the circulation are calculated for both types of SSW. It is found that strong poleward and downward motion exists in the polar stratosphere just before the central date of SSW, which is induced primarily by the Eliassen-Palm flux divergence forcing (EPD). Gravity-wave drag (GWD) induces strong poleward and downward motion in the lower mesosphere. The temperature advection is significantly increased in the stratosphere before the central date of the SSW, as a result of the strong downward motion due to the EPD. However, the temperature change in the lower mesosphere is small despite the strong downward motion, because the vertical gradient of the potential temperature is relatively small at these altitudes. The temperature change in the stratosphere before the SSW is more rapid for Type-2 than Type-1. After the central date of SSW, the polar stratospheric temperature is recovered primarily by diabatic heating rather than by the residual circulation associated with wave forcing. Difference in the speed of temperature recovery between the two types of SSW is not significant.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eswaraiah, S.; Kim, Yong Ha; Lee, Jaewook; Ratnam, M. Vankat; Rao, S. V. B.
2018-03-01
We analyzed the structure and variability of observed winds and tides in the Antarctica mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during the 2002 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and the 2010 minor SSWs. We noted the effect of SSW on the variability of MLT tides for the first time in the Southern Hemisphere, although it has been well recognized in the Northern Hemisphere. We utilized the winds measured by Rothera (68°S, 68°W) medium frequency radar and King Sejong Station (62.22°S, 58.78°W) meteor radar for estimating the tidal components (diurnal, semi-diurnal, and ter-diurnal) in the MLT region. The unusual behavior of diurnal tide (DT) and semidiurnal tide (SDT) was observed in 2002. Zonal SDT amplitudes were enhanced up to 27 m/s after 18 days from the associated SSW day. However, the meridional tidal amplitudes of both DT and SDT suddenly decreased during the peak SSW, and SDT amplitudes slightly increased to 18 m/s afterward. In the normal years, SDT amplitude stays below 15 m/s. During the 2010 SSW, SDT zonal amplitudes increased up to 40 m/s and 50 m/s at altitudes of 80 km and 90 km, respectively, 30 days after the associated SSW. Similar but weaker effect is noticed in the meridional components. The ter-diurnal tide does not show any significant variation during the SSW. The two SSWs offered a challenging issue to answer: why tidal amplitudes are enhanced with a delay after the SSW. The reasons for the delay are discussed in accordance with theoretical predictions.
The December 2015 North Pole Warming Event and the Increasing Occurrence of Such Events
Moore, G. W. K.
2016-01-01
In late December 2015, widespread media interest revolved around forecasts that the surface air temperature at the North Pole would rise above freezing. Although there has been significant interest in the enhanced warming that is occurring at high northern latitudes, a process known as arctic amplification, remarkably little is known about these midwinter warming events at the pole including their frequency, duration and magnitude as well as the environmental conditions responsible for their occurrence. Here we use buoy and radiosonde data along with operational weather forecasts and atmospheric reanalyses to show that such events are associated with surface cyclones near the pole as well as a highly perturbed polar vortex. They occur once or twice each decade with the earliest identified event taking place in 1959. In addition, the warmest midwinter temperatures at the North Pole have been increasing at a rate that is twice as large as that for mean midwinter temperatures at the pole. It is argued that this enhanced trend is consistent with the loss of winter sea ice from the Nordic Seas that moves the reservoir of warm air over this region northwards making it easier for weather systems to transport this heat polewards. PMID:27976745
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Manney, Gloria L.; Krueger, Kirstin; Pawson, Steven; Minschwaner, Ken; Schwartz, Michael J.; Daffer, William H.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Russell, James M., III;
2008-01-01
Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature
Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.
Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K
2010-10-01
Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more
Changes in Stratospheric Transport and Mixing During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de la Cámara, A.; Abalos, M.; Hitchcock, P.
2018-04-01
The extreme disruptions of the wintertime stratospheric circulation during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) have large effects on tracer concentrations through alterations in transport. This study analyzes the changes in residual circulation and isentropic mixing associated with SSWs, by performing composites using reanalysis (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis Interim) and simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The advective Brewer-Dobson circulation accelerates around 15 days prior to the wind reversal at 60°N, 10 hPa during the onset of SSWs. Soon afterward, it decelerates, leading to reduced advective transport into the vortex and descent over the pole, which persist for more than 2 months below 30 hPa. The isentropic mixing has a distinct signature in altitude: It is enhanced at the central date of the SSW in the midstratosphere (about 10 hPa or 800 K), and this signal is delayed and more persistent at lower altitudes. It is shown that sufficiently deep SSWs (particularly those related to Polar-night Jet Oscillation events) have a stronger response in the Brewer-Dobson circulation and mixing. In particular, both the polar downwelling and the tropical upwelling are anomalously weak in the lower stratosphere for 90 days after the onset of Polar-night Jet Oscillation events. The redistribution of potential vorticity during the life cycle of SSWs is discussed due to its relevance for the stratospheric circulation. It is shown that the diffusive flux of potential vorticity, calculated in equivalent latitude coordinates, remains anomalously high in the lower stratosphere, a feature that is not seen in more conventional advective eddy fluxes across latitude circles.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maycock, A.; Masukwedza, G.; Hitchcock, P.
2017-12-01
The winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (NAJ) has been shown to exhibit three preferred latitudinal positions. Here we examine, for the first time, the influence of major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) on the regime behaviour of the NAJ using an ensemble of climate model experiments with stratospheric conditions nudged towards a major SSW, but with each ensemble member having freely evolving tropospheric conditions. The SSW experiment is compared to a control ensemble in which stratospheric variability is absent. The experiments show that the SSW leads to an increased occupancy of the southerly NAJ state and reduced occupancy of the northerly state. This effect is distinct from the mean southward shift of the NAJ identified in many previous studies, and instead suggests changes to the characteristics of NAJ variability as a result of SSWs. These results may aid in understanding the mechanisms by which SSWs impact on Euro-Atlantic climate.
North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming
Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C.; Davies, Maureen H.; Wolhowe, Matthew D; Addison, Jason A.; Prahl, Frederick G
2015-01-01
Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition1, 2, 3, 4. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4–5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals12, 13, and enhanced 15N/14N ratio of organic matter13, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in 18O/16O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming.
Lunar tidal effects during the 2013 stratospheric sudden warming as simulated by the TIME-GCM
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maute, A. I.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Fejer, B. G.; Yudin, V. A.; Pedatella, N. M.
2015-12-01
Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSW) are associated with strong planetary wave activity in the winterpolar stratosphere which result in a very disturbed middle atmosphere. The changes in the middle atmospherealter the propagation conditions and the nonlinear interactions of waves and tides, and result in SSW signals in the upper atmosphere in e.g., neutral winds, electric fields, ionospheric currents and plasma distribution. The upper atmosphere changes can be significant at low-latitudes even during medium solar flux conditions. Observationsalso reveal a strong lunar signal during SSW periods in the low latitude vertical drifts and in ionospheric quantities. Forbes and Zhang [2012] demonstrated that during the 2009 SSW period the Pekeris resonance peak of the atmosphere was altered such that the M2 and N2 lunar tidal componentsgot amplified. This study focuses on the effect of the lunar tidal forcing on the thermosphere-ionosphere system during theJanuary 2013 SSW period. We employthe NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM)with a nudging scheme using the Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of meteorological forcing on the upper atmosphere. Additionally lunar tidal forcingis included at the lower boundary of the model. To delineate the lunar tidal effects a base simulation without lunar forcingis employed. Interestingly, Jicamarca observations of that period reveal a suppression of the daytime vertical drift before and after the drift enhancement due the SSW. The simulation suggests that the modulation of the vertical driftmay be caused by the interplay of the migrating solar and lunar semidiurnal tide, and therefore can only be reproduced by the inclusion of both lunar and solar tidal forcings in the model. In this presentation the changes due to the lunar tidal forcing will be quantified, and compared
Eocene Hyperthermal Event Offers Insight Into Greenhouse Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bowen, Gabriel J.; Bralower, Timothy J.; Delaney, Margaret L.; Dickens, Gerald R.; Kelly, Daniel C.; Koch, Paul L.; Kump, Lee R.; Meng, Jin; Sloan, Lisa C.; Thomas, Ellen; Wing, Scott L.; Zachos, James C.
2006-04-01
What happens to the Earth's climate, environment, and biota when thousands of gigatons of greenhouse gases are rapidly added to the atmosphere? Modern anthropogenic forcing of atmospheric chemistry promises to provide an experiment in such change that has not been matched since the early Paleogene, more than 50 million years ago (Ma),when catastrophic release of carbon to the atmosphere drove abrupt, transient, hyperthermal events. Research on the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)-the best documented of these events, which occurred about 55 Ma-has advanced significantly since its discovery 15 years ago. During the PETM, carbon addition to the oceans and atmosphere was of a magnitude similar to that which is anticipated through the 21st century. This event initiated global warming, biotic extinction and migration, and fundamental changes in the carbon and hydrological cycles that transformed the early Paleogene world.
Ionospheric effects of sudden stratospheric warmings in eastern Siberia region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Polyakova, A. S.; Chernigovskaya, M. A.; Perevalova, N. P.
2014-12-01
Ionospheric effects observed in Russia's Asia region during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the winters 2008/2009 and 2012/2013 corresponding to both extreme solar minimum and moderate solar maximum conditions have been examined. To detect the ionospheric effects which must have been induced by the SSWs, we have carried out a joint analysis of total electron content (TEC) global ionospheric maps (GIM), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder, EOS Aura) measurements of vertical temperature profiles, as well as NCEP/NCAR and UKMO Reanalysis data. It has been revealed for the first time that during strong SSWs the amplitude of diurnal variation of TEC decreases nearly by half in the mid-latitude ionosphere. Besides, the intensity of TEC deviations from the background level increases during SSWs. It has also revealed that during SSW peak the midday TEC maximum considerably decreases, and the night/morning TEC increases compared to quiet days. The pattern of TEC response to SSW is shown to be identical for both quiet and disturbed geophysical conditions.
Global variations of zonal mean ozone during stratospheric warming events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Randel, William J.
1993-01-01
Eight years of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data are examined to study zonal mean variations associated with stratospheric planetary wave (warming) events. These fluctuations are found to be nearly global in extent, with relatively large variations in the tropics, and coherent signatures reaching up to 50 deg in the opposite (summer) hemisphere. These ozone variations are a manifestation of the global circulation cells associated with stratospheric warming events; the ozone responds dynamically in the lower stratosphere to transport, and photochemically in the upper stratosphere to the circulation-induced temperature changes. The observed ozone variations in the tropics are of particular interest because transport is dominated by zonal-mean vertical motions (eddy flux divergences and mean meridional transports are negligible), and hence, substantial simplifications to the governing equations occur. The response of the atmosphere to these impulsive circulation changes provides a situation for robust estimates of the ozone-temperature sensitivity in the upper stratosphere.
Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.
Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R
2010-05-28
The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.
Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Warm Pool EI Nino Events in the GEOS CCM
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Song, In-Sun; Oman, Luke D.; Newman, Paul A.; Molod, Andrea M.; Frith, Stacey M.; Nielsen, J. Eric
2011-01-01
A new type of EI Nino event has been identified in the last decade. During "warm pool" EI Nino (WPEN) events, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific are warmer than average. The EI Nino signal propagates poleward and upward as large-scale atmospheric waves, causing unusual weather patterns and warming the polar stratosphere. In austral summer, observations show that the Antarctic lower stratosphere is several degrees (K) warmer during WPEN events than during the neutral phase of EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, the stratospheric response to WPEN events depends of the direction of tropical stratospheric winds: the Antarctic warming is largest when WPEN events are coincident with westward winds in the tropical lower and middle stratosphere i.e., the westward phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Westward winds are associated with enhanced convection in the subtropics, and with increased poleward wave activity. In this paper, a new formulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, Version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) is used to substantiate the observed stratospheric response to WPEN events. One simulation is driven by SSTs typical of a WPEN event, while another simulation is driven by ENSO neutral SSTs; both represent a present-day climate. Differences between the two simulations can be directly attributed to the anomalous WPEN SSTs. During WPEN events, relative to ENSO neutral, the model simulates the observed increase in poleward planetary wave activity in the South Pacific during austral spring, as well as the relative warming of the Antarctic lower stratosphere in austral summer. However, the modeled response to WPEN does not depend on the phase of the QBO. The modeled tropical wind oscillation does not extend far enough into the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, likely explaining the model's insensitivity to the phase of the QBO during WPEN events.
Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events
Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala
2017-01-01
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005
Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.
Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala
2017-05-09
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.
Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;
2017-01-01
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.
The Impact of Warm Pool El Nino Events on Antarctic Ozone
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, In-Sun; Frith, Stacey M.
2011-01-01
Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific in austral spring and summer. Previous work found an enhancement in planetary wave activity in the South Pacific in austral spring, and a warming of 3-5 K in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during austral summer, in WPEN events as compared with ENSO neutral. In this presentation, we show that weakening of the Antarctic vortex during WPEN affects the structure and magnitude of high-latitude total ozone. We use total ozone data from TOMS and OMI, as well as station data from Argentina and Antarctica, to identify shifts in the longitudinal location of the springtime ozone minimum from its climatological position. In addition, we examine the sensitivity of the WPEN-related ozone response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). We then compare the observed response to WPEN events with Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model, version 2 (GEOS V2 CCM) simulations. Two, 50-year time-slice simulations are forced by annually repeating SST and sea ice climatologies, one set representing observed WPEN events and the second set representing neutral ENSO events, in a present-day climate. By comparing the two simulations, we isolate the impact of WPEN events on lower stratospheric ozone, and furthermore, examine the sensitivity of the WPEN ozone response to the phase of the QBO.
Mechanism for the recent ocean warming events on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brickman, D.; Hebert, D.; Wang, Z.
2018-03-01
In 2012, 2014, and 2015 anomalous warm events were observed in the subsurface waters in the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. Monthly output from a high resolution numerical ocean model simulation of the North Atlantic ocean for the period 1990-2015 is used to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the model shows skill in simulating the anomaly fields derived from various sources of data, and the observed warming trend over the last decade. From analysis of the model run it is found that the anomalies originate from the interaction between the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current at the tail of the Grand Banks (south of Newfoundland). This interaction results in the creation of anomalous warm/salty (or cold/fresh) eddies that travel east-to-west along the shelfbreak. These anomalies penetrate into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, onto the Scotian Shelf, and into the Gulf of Maine via deep channels along the shelfbreak. The observed warming trend can be attributed to an increase in the frequency of creation of warm anomalies during the last decade. Strong anomalous events are commonly observed in the data and model, and thus should be considered as part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.
Influence of the sudden stratospheric warming on quasi-2-day waves
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gu, Sheng-Yang; Liu, Han-Li; Dou, Xiankang; Li, Tao
2016-04-01
The influence of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on a quasi-2-day wave (QTDW) with westward zonal wave number 3 (W3) is investigated using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The summer easterly jet below 90 km is strengthened during an SSW, which results in a larger refractive index and thus more favorable conditions for the propagation of W3. In the winter hemisphere, the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux diagnostics indicate that the strong instabilities at middle and high latitudes in the mesopause region are important for the amplification of W3, which is weakened during SSW periods due to the deceleration or even reversal of the winter westerly winds. Nonlinear interactions between the W3 and the wave number 1 stationary planetary wave produce QTDW with westward zonal wave number 2 (W2). The meridional wind perturbations of the W2 peak in the equatorial region, while the zonal wind and temperature components maximize at middle latitudes. The EP flux diagnostics indicate that the W2 is capable of propagating upward in both winter and summer hemispheres, whereas the propagation of W3 is mostly confined to the summer hemisphere. This characteristic is likely due to the fact that the phase speed of W2 is larger, and therefore its waveguide has a broader latitudinal extension. The larger phase speed also makes W2 less vulnerable to dissipation and critical layer filtering by the background wind when propagating upward.
Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.
Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio
2014-06-12
The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.
Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward
The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Rui; Tomikawa, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Takuji; Huang, Kaiming; Zhang, Shaodong; Zhang, Yehui; Yang, Huigen; Hu, Hongqiao
2016-10-01
The mechanism to explain the variations of tropopause and tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the Arctic region during a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in 2009 was studied with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis data and GPS/Constellation Observing system for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) temperature data. During the prominent SSW in 2009, the cyclonic system changed to the anticyclonic system due to the planetary wave with wave number 2 (wave2). The GPS/COSMIC temperature data showed that during the SSW in 2009, the tropopause height in the Arctic decreased accompanied with the tropopause temperature increase and the TIL enhancement. The variations of the tropopause and TIL were larger in higher latitudes. A static stability analysis showed that the variations of the tropopause and TIL were associated with the variations of the residual circulation and the static stability due to the SSW. Larger static stability appeared in the upper stratosphere and moved downward to the narrow region just above the tropopause. The descent of strong downward flow was faster in higher latitudes. The static stability tendency analysis showed that the strong downward residual flow induced the static stability change in the stratosphere and around the tropopause. The strong downwelling in the stratosphere was mainly induced by wave2, which led to the tropopause height and temperature changes due to the adiabatic heating. Around the tropopause, a pair of downwelling above the tropopause and upwelling below the tropopause due to wave2 contributed to the enhancement of static stability in the TIL immediately after the SSW.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parker, Andrew O.; Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping
2015-11-01
The role of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as the driver of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) variability that characterized Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) has long been hypothesized. Although there is ample proxy evidence suggesting that DO events were robust features of glacial climate, there is little data supporting a link with AMOC. Recently, modeling studies and subsurface temperature reconstructions have suggested that subsurface warming across the tropical North Atlantic can be used to fingerprint a weakened AMOC during the deglacial because a reduction in the strength of the western boundary current allows warm salinity maximum water of the subtropical gyre to enter the deep tropics. To determine if AMOC variability played a role during the DO cycles of MIS 3, we present new, high-resolution Mg/Ca and δ18O records spanning 24-52 kyr from the near-surface dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the lower thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotalia truncatulinoides in Southern Caribbean core VM12-107 (11.33°N, 66.63°W, 1079 m depth). Our subsurface Mg/Ca record reveals abrupt increases in Mg/Ca ratios (the largest equal to a 4°C warming) during the interstadial-stadial transition of most DO events during this period. This change is consistent with reconstructions of subsurface warming events associated with cold events across the deglacial using the same core. Additionally, our data support the conclusion reached by a recently published study from the Florida Straits that AMOC did not undergo significant reductions during Heinrich events 2 and 3. This record presents some of the first high-resolution marine sediment derived evidence for variable AMOC during MIS 3.
Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.
2011-01-01
Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.
Semenchuk, Philipp R; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J
2013-01-01
Abstract The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often
Reynolds, Laura K.; DuBois, Katherine; Abbott, Jessica M.; Williams, Susan L.; Stachowicz, John J.
2016-01-01
Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass). We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14–15°C, but extended warming periods of 17–18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes’ production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control) were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species’ thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient frequency of
Reynolds, Laura K; DuBois, Katherine; Abbott, Jessica M; Williams, Susan L; Stachowicz, John J
2016-01-01
Growing evidence shows that increasing global temperature causes population declines and latitudinal shifts in geographical distribution for plants living near their thermal limits. Yet, even populations living well within established thermal limits of a species may suffer as the frequency and intensity of warming events increase with climate change. Adaptive response to this stress at the population level depends on the presence of genetic variation in thermal tolerance in the populations in question, yet few data exist to evaluate this. In this study, we examined the immediate effects of a moderate warming event of 4.5°C lasting 5 weeks and the legacy effects after a 5 week recovery on different genotypes of the marine plant Zostera marina (eelgrass). We conducted the experiment in Bodega Bay, CA USA, where average summer water temperatures are 14-15°C, but extended warming periods of 17-18°C occur episodically. Experimental warming increased shoot production by 14% compared to controls held at ambient temperature. However, after returning temperature to ambient levels, we found strongly negative, delayed effects of warming on production: shoot production declined by 27% and total biomass decreased by 50% relative to individuals that had not been warmed. While all genotypes' production decreased in the recovery phase, genotypes that grew the most rapidly under benign thermal conditions (control) were the most susceptible to the detrimental effects of warming. This suggests a potential tradeoff in relative performance at normal vs. elevated temperatures. Modest short-term increases in water temperature have potentially prolonged negative effects within the species' thermal envelope, but genetic variation within these populations may allow for population persistence and adaptation. Further, intraspecific variation in phenology can result in maintenance of population diversity and lead to enhanced production in diverse stands given sufficient frequency of warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.
2017-12-01
Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18Oice, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia
2018-02-01
Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.
Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.
Petrenko, Vasilii V; Smith, Andrew M; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P
2017-08-23
Methane (CH 4 ) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ( 14 CH 4 ) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.
Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Smith, Andrew M.; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.
2017-08-01
Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today’s natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.
Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events
Marcott, Shaun A.; Clark, Peter U.; Padman, Laurie; Klinkhammer, Gary P.; Springer, Scott R.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ungerer, Andy; Padman, June; He, Feng; Cheng, Jun; Schmittner, Andreas
2011-01-01
Episodic iceberg-discharge events from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream (HSIS) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, referred to as Heinrich events, are commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instabilities, but their systematic occurrence at the culmination of a large reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indicates a climate control. We report Mg/Ca data on benthic foraminifera from an intermediate-depth site in the northwest Atlantic and results from a climate-model simulation that reveal basin-wide subsurface warming at the same time as large reductions in the AMOC, with temperature increasing by approximately 2 °C over a 1–2 kyr interval prior to a Heinrich event. In simulations with an ocean model coupled to a thermodynamically active ice shelf, the increase in subsurface temperature increases basal melt rate under an ice shelf fronting the HSIS by a factor of approximately 6. By analogy with recent observations in Antarctica, the resulting ice-shelf loss and attendant HSIS acceleration would produce a Heinrich event. PMID:21808034
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Wenyi; Mu, Xingmin; Song, Xiaoyan; Wu, Dan; Cheng, Aifang; Qiu, Bing
2016-02-01
In recent decades, extreme climatic events have been a major issue worldwide. Regional assessments on various climates and geographic regions are needed for understanding uncertainties in extreme events' responses to global warming. The objective of this study was to assess the annual and decadal trends in 12 extreme temperature and 10 extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration over the Loess Plateau during 1960-2013. The results indicated that the regionally averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence of warm extremes, including summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), increased by 2.76 (P < 0.01), 1.24 (P < 0.01), 2.60 (P = 0.0003), 3.41 (P < 0.01), and 0.68 (P = 0.0041) days/decade during the period of 1960-2013, particularly, sharp increases in these indices occurred in 1985-2000. Over the same period, the occurrence of cold extremes, including frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and a cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) exhibited decreases of - 3.22 (P < 0.01), - 2.21 (P = 0.0028), - 2.71 (P = 0.0028), - 4.31 (P < 0.01), and - 0.69 (P = 0.0951) days/decade, respectively. Moreover, extreme warm events in most regions tended to increase while cold indices tended to decrease in the Loess Plateau, but the trend magnitudes of cold extremes were greater than those of warm extremes. The growing season (GSL) in the Loess Plateau was lengthened at a rate of 3.16 days/decade (P < 0.01). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) declined at a rate of - 0.06 °C /decade (P = 0.0931). Regarding the precipitation indices, the annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) showed no obvious trends (P = 0.7828). The regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity (SDII) exhibited significant decreases (- 0.14 mm/day/decade, P = 0.0158), whereas consecutive dry days (CDD) significantly increased (1.96 days
Ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during sudden stratosphere warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A. I.; Maruyama, N.
2015-12-01
Variability of the mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and model simulations. The simulations are performed using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) model. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F-region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere mid latitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ~20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability in hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. The simulation results demonstrate that the mid lattiude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2) into the thermosphere where it modulates the field aligned neutrals winds, which in-turn raise and lower the F-region peak height. The importance of the thermosphere neutral winds on generating the ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during SSWs is supported by IPE simulations performed both with and without the neutral wind variability. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.
Space weather at Low Latitudes: Considerations to improve its forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chau, J. L.; Goncharenko, L.; Valladares, C. E.; Milla, M. A.
2013-05-01
In this work we present a summary of space weather events that are unique to low-latitude regions. Special emphasis will be devoted to events that occur during so-called quiet (magnetically) conditions. One of these events is the occurrence of nighttime F-region irregularities, also known Equatorial Spread F (ESF). When such irregularities occur navigation and communications systems get disrupted or perturbed. After more than 70 years of studies, many features of ESF irregularities (climatology, physical mechanisms, longitudinal dependence, time dependence, etc.) are well known, but so far they cannot be forecast on time scales of minutes to hours. We present a summary of some of these features and some of the efforts being conducted to contribute to their forecasting. In addition to ESF, we have recently identified a clear connection between lower atmospheric forcing and the low latitude variability, particularly during the so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. During SSW events and magnetically quiet conditions, we have observed changes in total electron content (TEC) that are comparable to changes that occur during strong magnetically disturbed conditions. We present results from recent events as well as outline potential efforts to forecast the ionospheric effects during these events.
Coupling between strong warm ENSO events and the phase of the stratospheric QBO.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Christiansen, Bo
2017-04-01
Although there in general are no significant long-term correlations between the QBO and the ENSO in observations we find that the QBO and the ENSO were aligned in the 3 to 4 years after the three strong warm ENSO events in 1982, 1997, and 2015. We study this possible connection between the QBO and the ENSO with a new version of the EC-Earth model which includes non-orographic gravity waves and a well modeled QBO. We analyze the modeled QBO in ensembles consisting of 10 AMIP-type experiments with climatological SSTs and 10 experiments with observed daily SSTs. The model experiments cover the period 1982-2013. For the ENSO we use the multivariate index (MEI). As expected the coherence is strong and statistically significant in the equatorial troposphere in the ensemble with observed SSTs. Here the coherence is a measure of the alignment of the ensemble members. In the ensemble with observed SSTs we find a strong and significant alignment of the ensemble members in the equatorial stratospheric winds in the 2 to 4 years after the strong ENSO event in 1997. This alignment also includes the observed QBO. No such alignment is found in the ensemble with climatological SSTs. These results indicate that strong warm ENSO events can directly influence the phase of the QBO. An open and maybe related question is what caused the anomalous QBO in 2016. This behaviour, which is unprecedented in the 50-60 years with data, has been described as a hiccup or a death-spiral. At least it is clear that in the last 18 months the QBO has been stuck in the same corner of the phase-space spanned by its two leading principal components. The possible connection to the ENSO will be investigated.
Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.
Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V
2016-09-01
Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.
2010-01-01
"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Song, I.-S.; Oman, L. D.; Newman, P. A.; Molod, A. M.; Frith, S. M.; Nielsen, J. E.
2011-01-01
"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring, WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed NP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce e realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.
Analysis of warm convective rain events in Catalonia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ballart, D.; Figuerola, F.; Aran, M.; Rigo, T.
2009-09-01
steep slopes. These factors increase the number of flash floods and the risk indexes. In the present study it is showed the general characteristics of the warm rain events observed in Catalonia, using meteorological, pluviometric, thermodynamic, and remote sensing data. Beside this, other heavy rain events with different features have been analyzed with the purpose of identify the main differences and to improve the knowledge in order to provide enough information for surveillance tasks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Sierro, Francisco; Cacho, Isabel; Abel Flores, José
2014-05-01
A new high-resolution reconstruction of the temperature and salinity of the subsurface waters using paired Mg/Ca-δ18O measurements on the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistrorsa (sin.) was conducted on a deep-sea sediment core in the subpolar North Atlantic (Site U1314). This study aims to reconstruct millennial-scale subsurface hydrography variations during the Early and Mid-Pleistocene (MIS 31-19). These rapid climate events are characterized by abrupt shifts between warm/cold conditions, and ice-sheet oscillations, as evidenced by major ice rafting events recorded in the North Atlantic sediments (Hernández-Almeida et al., 2012), similar to those found during the Last Glacial period (Marcott et al, 2011). The Mg/Ca derived paleotemperature and salinity oscillations prior and during IRD discharges at Site U1314 are related to changes in intermediate circulation. The increases in Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and salinities during the IRD event are preceded by short episodes of cooling and freshening of subsurface waters. The response of the AMOC to this perturbation is an increased of warm and salty water coming from the south, transported to high latitudes in the North Atlantic beneath the thermocline. This process is accompanied by a southward shift in the convection cell from the Nordic Seas to the subpolar North Atlantic and better ventilation of the North Atlantic at mid-depths. Poleward transport of warm and salty subsurface subtropical waters causes intense basal melting and thinning of marine ice-shelves, that culminates in large-scale instability of the ice sheets, retreat of the grounding line and iceberg discharge. The mechanism proposed involves the coupling of the AMOC with ice-sheet dynamics, and would explain the presence of these fluctuations before the establishment of high-amplitude 100-kyr glacial cycles. Hernández-Almeida, I., Sierro, F.J., Cacho, I., Flores, J.A., 2012. Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North
Impact of the Lower Atmosphere on the Ionosphere Response to a Geomagnetic Superstorm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedatella, N. M.
2016-12-01
Numerical simulations in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) are performed to elucidate the impacts of lower atmosphere forcing on the ionosphere response to a geomagnetic superstorm. In particular, how the ionosphere variability due to the October 2003 Halloween storm would be different if it occurred in January coincident with a major sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) event is investigated. The TIE-GCM simulations reveal that the E x B vertical drift velocity and total electron content (TEC) respond differently to the geomagnetic disturbance when the lower atmosphere forcing is representative of SSW conditions compared to climatological lower atmosphere forcing conditions. Notably, the storm time variations in the E x B vertical drift velocity differ when the effects of the SSW are considered, and this is in part due to effects of the SSW on the equatorial ionosphere being potentially misinterpreted as being of geomagnetic origin. Differences in the TEC response to the geomagnetic storm can be up to 100% ( 30 TECU) of the storm induced TEC change, and the temporal variability of the TEC during the storm recovery phase is considerably different if SSW effects are considered. The results demonstrate that even during periods of extreme geomagnetic forcing it is important to consider the effects of lower atmosphere forcing on the ionosphere variability.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maute, A.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Roble, R. G.
2014-02-01
This modeling study quantifies the daytime low-latitude vertical E×B drift changes in the longitudinal wave number 1 (wn1) to wn4 during the major extended January 2006 stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) period as simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM), and attributes the drift changes to specific tides and planetary waves (PWs). The largest drift amplitude change (approximately 5 m/s) is seen in wn1 with a strong temporal correlation to the SSW. The wn1 drift is primarily caused by the semidiurnal westward propagating tide with zonal wave number 1 (SW1), and secondarily by a stationary planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 (PW1). SW1 is generated by the nonlinear interaction of PW1 and the migrating semidiurnal tide (SW2) at high latitude around 90-100 km. The simulations suggest that the E region PW1 around 100-130 km at the different latitudes has different origins: at high latitudes, the PW1 is related to the original stratospheric PW1; at midlatitudes, the model indicates PW1 is due to the nonlinear interaction of SW1 and SW2 around 95-105 km; and at low latitudes, the PW1 might be caused by the nonlinear interaction between DE2 and DE3. The time evolution of the simulated wn4 in the vertical E×B drift amplitude shows no temporal correlation with the SSW. The wn4 in the low-latitude vertical drift is attributed to the diurnal eastward propagating tide with zonal wave number 3 (DE3), and the contributions from SE2, TE1, and PW4 are negligible.
Slow NE-SW to NNE-SSW extension in the Pasto Ventura region of the southern Puna Plateau
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, R.; Schoenbohm, L. M.; Cosca, M. A.
2011-12-01
Recent extension on the Puna Plateau of NW Argentina has been linked to lithospheric foundering, gravitational spreading, and edge effects. However, the timing, kinematics and rate of extension are poorly constrained. In the Pasto Ventura region, along the southern margin of the plateau, we map out two different groups of faults: (1) recently formed Quaternary normal faults and strike-slip faults; and (2) pre-Quaternary reverse faults reactivated in the Quaternary. The faults in Group (1) are relatively short (~1-2 km) normal and strike-slip faults that offset Quaternary geomorphic features. The orientation of these faults indicates NE-SW to NNE-SSW extension. The faults in Group (2) bound exposures of basement rock and are associated with basaltic cinder cones and lava flows. Previous studies indicate they were reverse faults which have been reactivated as normal faults. We applied kinematic GPS surveying and 40Ar/39Ar dating of three cinder cones displaced by two of Group-(2) faults. Kinematic analysis on vertical and horizontal offsets obtained by GPS survey shows that the one fault is now undergoing NE-SW to NNE-SSW extension, consistent with Group (1) fault kinematics. A cinder cone has been displaced 34-40 meters horizontally along this fault, yielding a slow extension rate of 0.02-0.04 mm/yr since 0.8-0.5 Ma. The shift from contraction to extension in the Pasto Ventura region is estimated to be between 7.8 and 0.5 Ma, but more likely between 7.8 and 4 Ma. A regional compilation of kinematics on the southern plateau from this study and existing data, although sparse, shows two spatial groups: the extension directions are N-S to NE-SW south of 26°S latitude, while they are NW-SE to NNW-SSW north of 26°S latitude. Mafic volcanism, thought to indicate the timing of the onset of extension in the Puna, shows a similar pattern, with the oldest ages (up to 7.3 Ma) clustered near 26°S latitude, becoming younger to both the north and the south. Kinematic and
Abrupt climate warming in East Antarctica during the early Holocene
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cremer, Holger; Heiri, Oliver; Wagner, Bernd; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike
2007-08-01
We report a centennial-scale warming event between 8600 and 8400 cal BP from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, that is documented by the geochemical record in a lacustrine sediment sequence. The organic carbon content, the C/S ratio, and the sedimentation rate in this core have distinctly elevated values around 8500 y ago reflecting relatively warm and ice-free conditions that led to well-ventilated conditions in the lake and considerable sedimentation of both autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter on the lake bottom. This abrupt warming event occurred concurrently with reported warm climatic conditions in the Southern Ocean while the climate in central East Antarctic remained cold. The comparison of the spatial and temporal variability of warm climatic periods documented in various terrestrial, marine, and glacial archives from East Antarctica elucidates the uniqueness of the centennial-scale warming event in the Amery Oasis. We also discuss a possible correlation of the Amery warming event with the abrupt climatic deterioration around 8200 cal BP on the Northern Hemisphere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernández, Mariano; Arrouy, María Julia; Scivetti, Nicolás; Franzese, Juan R.; Canalicchio, José M.; Poiré, Daniel G.
2017-11-01
At the northwestern portion of the Tandilia System, a detailed structural analysis on the Precambrian sedimentary units exposed in the quarries of the Olavarría-Sierras Bayas area was carried out. These units exhibit deformational structures of several scales, from centimeters to hundreds of meters. The hundreds of meters scale involves E-W- and NW-SE-trending normal faults and NW-SE- and NE-SW-trending contractional folds. The centimeters to meters scale involves veins, joints, normal faults, shear fractures and stylolites, with a prevailing ∼ E-W to NW-SE trend. All these structures were formed by two major tectonic events. The first was the folding event at ∼580 Ma, with NNE-SSW to NE-SW and NW-SE direction of contraction. The second was the extensional faulting event, given by the widespread NNE-SSW-directed extension event during the Atlantic Ocean opening (Jurassic-Cretaceous). Both major events would have been controlled by the reactivation of basement anisotropies. These major tectonic events controlled the deformation of the Precambrian sedimentary cover of the Tandilia system, leading to an economically important aspect in the mining development of the Olavarría-Sierras Bayas area.
Phenological sequences reveal aggregate life history response to climatic warming.
Post, Eric S; Pedersen, Christian; Wilmers, Christopher C; Forchhammer, Mads C
2008-02-01
Climatic warming is associated with organisms breeding earlier in the season than is typical for their species. In some species, however, response to warming is more complex than a simple advance in the timing of all life history events preceding reproduction. Disparities in the extent to which different components of the reproductive phenology of organisms vary with climatic warming indicate that not all life history events are equally responsive to environmental variation. Here, we propose that our understanding of phenological response to climate change can be improved by considering entire sequences of events comprising the aggregate life histories of organisms preceding reproduction. We present results of a two-year warming experiment conducted on 33 individuals of three plant species inhabiting a low-arctic site. Analysis of phenological sequences of three key events for each species revealed how the aggregate life histories preceding reproduction responded to warming, and which individual events exerted the greatest influence on aggregate life history variation. For alpine chickweed (Cerastium alpinum), warming elicited a shortening of the duration of the emergence stage by 2.5 days on average, but the aggregate life history did not differ between warmed and ambient plots. For gray willow (Salix glauca), however, all phenological events monitored occurred earlier on warmed than on ambient plots, and warming reduced the aggregate life history of this species by 22 days on average. Similarly, in dwarf birch (Betula nana), warming advanced flower bud set, blooming, and fruit set and reduced the aggregate life history by 27 days on average. Our approach provides important insight into life history responses of many organisms to climate change and other forms of environmental variation. Such insight may be compromised by considering changes in individual phenological events in isolation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gallus, William; Parodi, Antonio; Miglietta, Marcello; Maugeri, Maurizio
2017-04-01
As the global climate has warmed in recent decades, interest has grown in the impacts on extreme events associated with thunderstorms such as tornadoes and intense rainfall that can cause flash flooding. Because warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to contain larger values of water vapor, it is generally accepted that short-term rainfall may become more intense in a future warmer climate. Regarding tornadoes, it is more difficult to say what might happen since although increased temperatures and humidity in the lowest part of the troposphere should increase thermodynamic instability, allowing for stronger thunderstorm updrafts, vertical wind shear necessary for storm-scale rotation may decrease as the pole to equator temperature gradient weakens. The Mediterranean Sea is an important source for moisture that fuels thunderstorms in Italy, and it has been warming faster than most water bodies in recent decades. The present study uses three methods to gain preliminary insight into the role that the warming Mediterranean may have on tornadoes and thunderstorms with intense rainfall in Italy. First, a historical archive of Italian tornadoes has been updated for the 1990s, and it will be used along with other data from the European Severe Weather Database to discuss possible trends in tornado occurrence. Second, convection-allowing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations have been performed for three extreme events to examine sensitivity to both the sea surface temperatures and other model parameters. These events include a flash flood-producing storm event near Milan, a non-tornadic severe hail event in far northeastern Italy, and the Mira EF-4 tornado of July 2015. Sensitivities in rainfall amount, radar reflectivity and storm structure, and storm rotation will be discussed. Finally, changes in the frequency of intense mesoscale convective system events in and near the Ligurian Sea, inferred from the presence of strong convergence lines in EXPRESS
Mesoscale Simulations of Gravity Waves During the 2008-2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Limpasuvan, Varavut; Alexander, M. Joan; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Wu, Dong L.; Xue, Ming; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Yamashita, Chihoko
2011-01-01
A series of 24 h mesoscale simulations (of 10 km horizontal and 400 m vertical resolution) are performed to examine the characteristics and forcing of gravity waves (GWs) relative to planetary waves (PWs) during the 2008-2009 major stratospheric sudden wam1ing (SSW). Just prior to SSW occurrence, widespread westward propagating GWs are found along the vortex's edge and associated predominantly with major topographical features and strong near-surface winds. Momentum forcing due to GWs surpasses PW forcing in the upper stratosphere and tends to decelerate the polar westerly jet in excess of 30 m/s/d. With SSW onset, PWs dominate the momentum forcing, providing decelerative effects in excess of 50 m/s/d throughout the upper polar stratosphere. GWs related to topography become less widespread largely due to incipient wind reversal as the vortex starts to elongate. During the SSW maturation and early recovery, the polar vortex eventually splits and both wave signatures and forcing greatly subside. Nonetheless, during SSW, westward and eastward propagating GWs are found in the polar region and may be generated in situ by flow adjustment processes in the stratosphere or by secondary GW breaking. The simulated large-scale features agree well with those resolved in satellite observations and analysis products.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yin, Jin-Fang; Wang, Dong-Hai; Liang, Zhao-Ming; Liu, Chong-Jian; Zhai, Guo-Qing; Wang, Hong
2018-02-01
Simulations of the severe precipitation event that occurred in the warm sector over southern China on 08 May 2014 are conducted using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARWv3.5.1) model to investigate the roles of microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes during the severe precipitation processes. At first, observations from surface rain gauges and ground-based weather radars are used to evaluate the model outputs. Results show that the spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated precipitation is well reproduced, and the temporal and spatial distributions of the simulated radar reflectivity agree well with the observations. Then, several sensitive simulations are performed with the identical model configurations, except for different options in microphysical latent heating and surface heat fluxes. From the results, one of the significant findings is that the latent heating from warm rain microphysical processes heats the atmosphere in the initial phase of the precipitation and thus convective systems start by self-triggering and self-organizing, despite the fact that the environmental conditions are not favorable to the occurrence of precipitation event at the initial phase. In the case of the severe precipitation event over the warm sector, both warm and ice microphysical processes are active with the ice microphysics processes activated almost two hours later. According to the sensitive results, there is a very weak precipitation without heavy rainfall belt when microphysical latent heating is turned off. In terms of this precipitation event, the warm microphysics processes play significant roles on precipitation intensity, while the ice microphysics processes have effects on the spatial distribution of precipitation. Both surface sensible and latent heating have effects on the precipitation intensity and spatial distribution. By comparison, the surface sensible heating has a strong influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A.
2015-12-01
Variability of the midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.
2013-12-01
Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision
How warm days increase belief in global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.
2014-02-01
Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.
How are warm and cool years in the California Current related to ENSO?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fiedler, Paul C.; Mantua, Nathan J.
2017-07-01
The tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual variability that impacts climate throughout the Pacific. The California Current System (CCS) in the northeast Pacific warms and cools from year to year, with or without a corresponding tropical El Niño or La Niña event. We update the record of warm and cool events in the CCS for 1950-2016 and use composite sea level pressure (SLP) and surface wind anomalies to explore the atmospheric forcing mechanisms associated with tropical and CCS warm and cold events. CCS warm events are associated with negative SLP anomalies in the NE Pacific—a strong and southeastward displacement of the wintertime Aleutian Low, a weak North Pacific High, and a regional pattern of cyclonic wind anomalies that are poleward over the CCS. We use a first-order autoregressive model to show that regional North Pacific forcing is predominant in SST variations throughout most of the CCS, while remote tropical forcing is more important in the far southern portion of the CCS. In our analysis, cool events in the CCS tend to be more closely associated with tropical La Niña than are warm events in the CCS with tropical El Niño; the forcing of co-occurring cool events is analogous, but nearly opposite, to that of warm events.
Lower-Stratospheric Control of the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martineau, Patrick; Chen, Gang; Son, Seok-Woo; Kim, Joowan
2018-03-01
The sensitivity of stratospheric polar vortex variability to the basic-state stratospheric temperature profile is investigated by performing a parameter sweep experiment with a dry dynamical core general circulation model where the equilibrium temperature profiles in the polar lower and upper stratosphere are systematically varied. It is found that stratospheric variability is more sensitive to the temperature distribution in the lower stratosphere than in the upper stratosphere. In particular, a cold lower stratosphere favors a strong time-mean polar vortex with a large daily variability, promoting frequent sudden stratospheric warming events in the model runs forced with both wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies. This sensitivity is explained by the control exerted by the lower-stratospheric basic state onto fluxes of planetary-scale wave activity from the troposphere to the stratosphere, confirming that the lower stratosphere can act like a valve for the upward propagation of wave activity. It is further shown that with optimal model parameters, stratospheric polar vortex climatology and variability mimicking Southern and Northern Hemisphere conditions are obtained with both wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 topographies.
Coupled greenhouse warming and deep-sea acidification in the middle Eocene
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bohaty, Steven M.; Zachos, James C.; Florindo, Fabio; Delaney, Margaret L.
2009-06-01
The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is an enigmatic warming event that represents an abrupt reversal in long-term cooling through the Eocene. In order to further assess the timing and nature of this event, we have assembled stable isotope and calcium carbonate concentration records from multiple Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program sites for the time interval between ˜43 and 38 Ma. Revised stratigraphy at several sites and compilation of δ18O records place peak warming during the MECO event at 40.0 Ma (Chron C18n.2n). The identification of the δ18O excursion at sites in different geographic regions indicates that the climatic effects of this event were globally extensive. The total duration of the MECO event is estimated at ˜500 ka, with peak warming lasting <100 ka. Assuming minimal glaciation in the late middle Eocene, ˜4°-6°C total warming of both surface and deep waters is estimated during the MECO at the study sites. The interval of peak warming at ˜40.0 Ma also coincided with a worldwide decline in carbonate accumulation at sites below 3000 m depth, reflecting a temporary shoaling of the calcite compensation depth. The synchroneity of deep-water acidification and globally extensive warming makes a persuasive argument that the MECO event was linked to a transient increase in atmospheric pCO2. The results of this study confirm previous reports of significant climatic instability during the middle Eocene. Furthermore, the direct link between warming and changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean provides strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations exerted a primary control on short-term climate variability during this critical period of Eocene climate evolution.
Pseudo-global warming controls on the intensity and morphology of extreme convective storm events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trapp, R. J.
2015-12-01
This research seeks to answer the basic question of how current-day extreme convective storm events might be represented under future anthropogenic climate change. We adapt the "pseudo-global warming" (PGW) methodology employed by Lackmann (2013, 2015) and others, who have investigated flooding and tropical cyclone events under climate change. Here, we exploit coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM data contributed to the CMIP5 archive, and take the mean 3D atmospheric state simulated during May 1990-1999 and subtract it from that simulated during May 2090-2099. Such 3D changes in temperature, humidity, geopotential height, and winds are added to synoptic/meso-scale analyses (NAM-ANL) of specific events, and this modified atmospheric state is then used for initial and boundary conditions for real-data WRF model simulations of the events at high resolution. Comparison of an ensemble of these simulations with control (CTRL) simulations facilitates assessment of PGW effects. In contrast to the robust development of supercellular convection in our CTRL simulations, the combined effects of increased CIN and decreased forcing under PGW led to a failure of convection initiation in many of our ensemble members. Those members that had sufficient matching between the CIN and forcing tended to generate stronger convective updrafts than in the CTRL simulations, because of the relatively higher CAPE under PGW. And, the members with enhanced updrafts also tended to have enhanced vertical rotation. In fact, such mesocyclonic rotation and attendant supercellular morphology were even found in simulations that were driven with PGW-reduced environmental wind shear.
The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang
2017-03-01
Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.
Acute Effect of Whole-Body Vibration Warm-up on Footspeed Quickness.
Donahue, Ryan B; Vingren, Jakob L; Duplanty, Anthony A; Levitt, Danielle E; Luk, Hui-Ying; Kraemer, William J
2016-08-01
Donahue, RB, Vingren, JL, Duplanty, AA, Levitt, DE, Luk, H-Y, and Kraemer, WJ. Acute effect of whole-body vibration warm-up on footspeed quickness. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2286-2291, 2016-The warm-up routine preceding a training or athletic event can affect the performance during that event. Whole-body vibration (WBV) can increase muscle performance, and thus the inclusion of WBV to the warm-up routine might provide additional performance improvements. The purpose of this investigation was to examine the acute effect of a WBV warm-up, using a vertical oscillating platform and a more traditional warm-up protocol on feet quickness in physically active men. Twenty healthy and physically active men (18-25 years, 22 ± 3 years, 176.8 ± 6.4 cm, 84.4 ± 11.5 kg, 10.8 ± 1.4% body fat) volunteered for this study. A 2 × 2 factorial design was used to examine the effect of 4 warm-up scenarios (no warm-up, traditional warm-up only, WBV warm-up only, and combined traditional and WBV warm-up) on subsequent 3-second Quick feet count test (QFT) performance. The traditional warm-up consisted of static and dynamic exercises and stretches. The WBV warm-up consisted of 60 seconds of vertical sinusoidal vibration at a frequency of 35 Hz and amplitude of 4 mm on a vibration platform. The WBV protocol significantly (p ≤ 0.0005, η = 0.581) augmented QFT performance (WBV: 37.1 ± 3.4 touches; no-WBV: 35.7 ± 3.4 touches). The results demonstrate that WBV can enhance the performance score on the QFT. The findings of this study suggest that WBV warm-up should be included in warm-up routines preceding training and athletic events which include very fast foot movements.
Major cause of unprecedented Arctic warming in January 2016: Critical role of an Atlantic windstorm
Kim, Baek-Min; Hong, Ja-Young; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Zhang, Xiangdong; Kwon, Hataek; Kim, Seong-Joong; Kim, Joo-Hong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kim, Hyun-Kyung
2017-01-01
In January 2016, the Arctic experienced an extremely anomalous warming event after an extraordinary increase in air temperature at the end of 2015. During this event, a strong intrusion of warm and moist air and an increase in downward longwave radiation, as well as a loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, were observed. Observational analyses revealed that the abrupt warming was triggered by the entry of a strong Atlantic windstorm into the Arctic in late December 2015, which brought enormous moist and warm air masses to the Arctic. Although the storm terminated at the eastern coast of Greenland in late December, it was followed by a prolonged blocking period in early 2016 that sustained the extreme Arctic warming. Numerical experiments indicate that the warming effect of sea ice loss and associated upward turbulent heat fluxes are relatively minor in this event. This result suggests the importance of the synoptically driven warm and moist air intrusion into the Arctic as a primary contributing factor of this extreme Arctic warming event. PMID:28051170
Atmospheric pCO2 reconstructed across five early Eocene global warming events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cui, Ying; Schubert, Brian A.
2017-11-01
Multiple short-lived global warming events, known as hyperthermals, occurred during the early Eocene (56-52 Ma). Five of these events - the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM or ETM1), H1 (or ETM2), H2, I1, and I2 - are marked by a carbon isotope excursion (CIE) within both marine and terrestrial sediments. The magnitude of CIE, which is a function of the amount and isotopic composition of carbon added to the ocean-atmosphere system, varies significantly between marine versus terrestrial substrates. Here we use the increase in carbon isotope fractionation by C3 land plants in response to increased pCO2 to reconcile this difference and reconstruct a range of background pCO2 and peak pCO2 for each CIE, provided two potential carbon sources: methane hydrate destabilization and permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation. Although the uncertainty on each pCO2 estimate using this approach is low (e.g., median uncertainty = + 23% / - 18%), this work highlights the potential for significant systematic bias in the pCO2 estimate resulting from sampling resolution, substrate type, diagenesis, and environmental change. Careful consideration of each of these factors is required especially when applying this approach to a single marine-terrestrial CIE pair. Given these limitations, we provide an upper estimate for background early Eocene pCO2 of 463 +248/-131 ppmv (methane hydrate scenario) to 806 +127/-104 ppmv (permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation scenario). These results, which represent the first pCO2 proxy estimates directly tied to the Eocene hyperthermals, demonstrate that early Eocene warmth was supported by background pCO2 less than ∼3.5× preindustrial levels and that pCO2 > 1000 ppmv may have occurred only briefly, during hyperthermal events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Jia-Ting; Liu, Hanli; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Lin, Charles C. H.; Chen, Chia-Hung; Chang, Loren; Chen, Wei-Han
In this study, ionospheric peak densities obtained from radio occultation soundings of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC are decomposed into their various constituent tidal components for studying the stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) effects on the tidal responses during the 2008/2009. The observations are further compared with the results from an atmosphere-ionosphere coupled model, TIME-GCM. The model assimilates MERRA 3D meteorological data between the lower-boundary (~30km) and 0.1h Pa (~62km) by a nudging method. The comparison shows general agreement in the major features of decrease of migrating tidal signatures (DW1, SW2 and TW3) in ionosphere around the growth phase of SSW, with phase/time shifts in the daily time of maximum around EIA and middle latitudes. Both the observation and simulation indicate a pronounced enhancement of the ionospheric SW2 signatures after the stratospheric temperature increase. The model suggest that the typical morning enhancement/afternoon reduction of electron density variation is mainly caused by modification of the ionospheric migrating tidal signatures. The model shows that the thermospheric SW2 tide variation is similar to ionosphere as well as the phase shift. These phases shift of migrating tides are highly related to the present of induced secondary planetary wave 1 in the E region.
Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.
2017-12-01
By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin
2017-10-01
The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.
2010-09-01
Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo
2017-04-01
The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernández-Almeida, I.; Sierro, F.-J.; Cacho, I.; Flores, J.-A.
2014-10-01
Subsurface water column dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic were reconstructed in order to improve the understanding of the cause of abrupt IRD events during cold periods of the Early Pleistocene. We used Mg / Ca-based temperatures of deep-dwelling (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral) planktonic foraminifera and paired Mg / Ca-δ18O measurements to estimate the subsurface temperatures and δ18O of seawater at Site U1314. Carbon isotopes on benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the same site provide information about the ventilation and water column nutrient gradient. Mg / Ca-based temperatures and δ18O of seawater suggest increased temperatures and salinities during ice-rafting, likely due to enhanced northward subsurface transport of subtropical waters during periods of AMOC reduction. Planktonic carbon isotopes support this suggestion, showing coincident increased subsurface ventilation during deposition of ice-rafted detritus (IRD). Warm waters accumulated at subsurface would result in basal warming and break-up of ice-shelves, leading to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic. Release of heat and salt stored at subsurface would help to restart the AMOC. This mechanism is in agreement with modelling and proxy studies that observe a subsurface warming in the North Atlantic in response to AMOC slowdown during the MIS3.
Tropical Intraseasonal Air-Sea Exchanges during the 1997 Pacific Warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Chou, S.-H.; Wang, Zihou
1999-01-01
The Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) and associated westerly wind (WW) events account for much of the tropical intraseasonal variability (TISV). The TISV has been suggested as an important stochastic forcing that may be one of the underlying causes for the observed irregularities of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Recent observational studies and theories of interannual to interdecadal-scale variability suggest that ENSO may arise from different mechanisms depending on the basic states. The Pacific warming event of 1997, being associated with a period of strong MJO and WW events, serves as a natural experiment for studying the possible role of TISV in triggering an ENSO event. We have performed a combined statistical and composite analysis of surface WW events based on the assimilated surface wind and sea level pressure for the period of 1980-1993, the SSM/I wind for the period of 1988-1997, and OLR. Results indicates that extratropical forcing contribute significantly to the evolution of MJO and establishment of WW events over the Pacific warm pool. Following the major WW events, there appeared an eastward extension of equatorial warm SST anomalies from the western Pacific warm pool. Such tropical-extratropical interaction is particularly clear in the winter of 96-97 that leads to the recent warming event in 1997/98. From the above discussion, our current study on this subject is based on the hypothesis that 1) there is an enhanced air-sea interaction associated with TISV and the northerly surges from the extratropics in the initial phase of the 97/98 warming event, and 2) the relevant mechanisms are functions of the basic state of the coupled system (in terms of SST distribution and atmospheric mean circulation) that varies at the interannual and interdecadal time scale. We are analyzing the space-time structure of the northerly surges, their association with air-sea fluxes and upper ocean responses during the period of September 1996 to June 1997. The
Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diffenbaugh, N. S.
2016-12-01
The last decade has seen a rapid increase in efforts to understand the influence of global warming on individual extreme climate events. Although trends in the distributions of climate observations have been thoroughly analyzed, rigorously quantifying the contribution of global-scale warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular challenge. This paper describes a method for leveraging observations and climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of historical global warming on the severity and probability of unprecedented events. This approach uses formal inferential techniques to quantify four metrics: (1) the contribution of the observed trend to the event magnitude, (2) the contribution of the observed trend to the event probability, (3) the probability of the observed trend in the current climate and a climate without human influence, and (4) the probability of the event magnitude in the current climate and a climate without human influence. Illustrative examples are presented, spanning a range of climate variables, timescales, and regions. These examples illustrate that global warming can influence the severity and probability of unprecedented extremes. In some cases - particularly high temperatures - this change is indicated by changes in the mean. However, changes in probability do not always arise from changes in the mean, suggesting that global warming can alter the frequency with which complex physical conditions co-occur. Because our framework is transparent and highly generalized, it can be readily applied to a range of climate events, regions, and levels of climate forcing.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.
2017-08-01
Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and
Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.
Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K
2016-11-01
Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lo, L.; Chuang, C. K.; Wei, K. Y.; Shen, C. C.; Mii, H. S.; Chang, Y. P.
2017-12-01
In this study, we reconstruct surface and upper thermocline seawater temperatures by using planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina deutertrei in the southern Western Pacific Warm Pool (S-WPWP, ODP Site 1115B, 9o11'S, 151o34'E, water depth 1149 m) during past 2.2-1.1 million years (Ma). Significant S-WPWP surface warming in both glacial and interglacial periods during 1.86-1.55 Ma is accompanied with gradual upper thermocline cooling. S-WPWP sea surface temperature dropped 2.1oC from 1.50-1.21 Ma but upper thermocline temperature further decreased 1.1oC at this time period. WPWP expansion event is also supported by vertical foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived temperature profile records in the central WPWP (ODP Site 806, Ford et al. 2015). Although foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived temperature records from Eastern Equatorial Pacific suggests long-term cooling trend (Wara et al. 2005), alkenone undersaturation index (UK'37)-inferred surface temperature records suggest 1oC warming during 2.0-1.5 Ma (Fedorov et al. 2013). We argue that seasonal expansion of WPWP may be attributable to the meridional thermocline gradient increasing (Martinez-Garcia et al. 2010) during 2.0-1.5 Ma. Long-term extent variability of WPWP could have impact on cross-equatorial energy transportation and meridional precipitation belt movements (Lo et al., 2014).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernández-Almeida, I.; Sierro, F.-J.; Cacho, I.; Flores, J.-A.
2015-04-01
Subsurface water column dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic were reconstructed in order to improve the understanding of the cause of abrupt ice-rafted detritus (IRD) events during cold periods of the early Pleistocene. We used paired Mg / Ca and δ18O measurements of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (sinistral - sin.), deep-dwelling planktonic foraminifera, to estimate the subsurface temperatures and seawater δ18O from a sediment core from Gardar Drift, in the subpolar North Atlantic. Carbon isotopes of benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the same site provide information about the ventilation and water column nutrient gradient. Mg / Ca-based temperatures and seawater δ18O suggest increased subsurface temperatures and salinities during ice-rafting, likely due to northward subsurface transport of subtropical waters during periods of weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Planktonic carbon isotopes support this suggestion, showing coincident increased subsurface ventilation during deposition of IRD. Subsurface accumulation of warm waters would have resulted in basal warming and break-up of ice-shelves, leading to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic. The release of heat stored at the subsurface to the atmosphere would have helped to restart the AMOC. This mechanism is in agreement with modelling and proxy studies that observe a subsurface warming in the North Atlantic in response to AMOC slowdown during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, K.
2008-04-01
Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.
Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe
Yang, Zhongling; Jiang, Lin; Su, Fanglong; Zhang, Qian; Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang
2016-01-01
Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and resilience. Our results showed that the semi-arid steppe in north China was resistant to both daytime and nighttime warming, but vulnerable to drought. Nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, enhanced community resistance to drought via stimulating carbon sequestration, whereas neither daytime nor nighttime warming affected community resilience to drought. Large decline in plant community cover, primarily caused by the reduction in the cover of dominant and rare species rather than subordinate species during drought, did not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. These findings suggest that nighttime warming may facilitate ecosystem sustainability and highlight the need to assess the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem functions at finer temporal resolutions than based on diurnal mean temperature. PMID:26987482
Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Zhongling; Jiang, Lin; Su, Fanglong; Zhang, Qian; Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang
2016-03-01
Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and resilience. Our results showed that the semi-arid steppe in north China was resistant to both daytime and nighttime warming, but vulnerable to drought. Nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, enhanced community resistance to drought via stimulating carbon sequestration, whereas neither daytime nor nighttime warming affected community resilience to drought. Large decline in plant community cover, primarily caused by the reduction in the cover of dominant and rare species rather than subordinate species during drought, did not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. These findings suggest that nighttime warming may facilitate ecosystem sustainability and highlight the need to assess the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem functions at finer temporal resolutions than based on diurnal mean temperature.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petrenko, V. V.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Smith, A.; Riedel, K.; Brook, E.; Schaefer, H.; Baggenstos, D.; Harth, C. M.; Hua, Q.; Buizert, C.; Schilt, A.; Fain, X.; Mitchell, L.; Bauska, T. K.; Orsi, A. J.; Weiss, R. F.
2016-12-01
Marine methane hydrate destabilization has been proposed as a potentially large source of methane to the atmosphere in response to both past and future warming. We present new measurements of 14C of paleoatmospheric methane (CH4) over the Younger Dryas - Preboreal (YD - PB) abrupt warming event (≈11,600 years ago) from ancient ice outcropping at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. The YD - PB abrupt warming was centered in the North Atlantic, occurred partway through the global warming of last deglaciation and was associated with a ≈ 50% increase in atmospheric CH4 concentrations. 14C can unambiguously identify CH4 emissions from "old carbon" sources, such as CH4 hydrates. All samples from before, during and after the abrupt warming and associated CH4 increase yielded 14CH4 values that are consistent with 14C of atmospheric CO2 at that time, indicating a purely contemporaneous methane source. Our results show that neither the abrupt regional warming nor the gradual global warming that preceded it resulted in detectable CH4 release to the atmosphere from CH4 hydrates during the YD - PB transition. Our results are thus consistent with the hypothesis that the vast majority of CH4 that is released from dissociating hydrates or other old-carbon seafloor CH4 sources is oxidized prior to reaching the atmosphere.
Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Steenrod, S. D.
2016-01-01
We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.
2017-12-01
The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time
Warm Arctic-cold Siberia: comparing the recent and the early 20th-century Arctic warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Zolina, Olga
2018-02-01
The Warm Arctic-cold Siberia surface temperature pattern during recent boreal winter is suggested to be triggered by the ongoing decrease of Arctic autumn sea ice concentration and has been observed together with an increase in mid-latitude extreme events and a meridionalization of tropospheric circulation. However, the exact mechanism behind this dipole temperature pattern is still under debate, since model experiments with reduced sea ice show conflicting results. We use the early twentieth-century Arctic warming (ETCAW) as a case study to investigate the link between September sea ice in the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) and the Siberian temperature evolution. Analyzing a variety of long-term climate reanalyses, we find that the overall winter temperature and heat flux trend occurs with the reduction of September BKS sea ice. Tropospheric conditions show a strengthened atmospheric blocking over the BKS, strengthening the advection of cold air from the Arctic to central Siberia on its eastern flank, together with a reduction of warm air advection by the westerlies. This setup is valid for both the ETCAW and the current Arctic warming period.
Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.
Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A
2014-03-01
Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).
Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yan, Xiao-Hai; Ho, Chung-Ru; Zheng, Quanan; Klemas, Vic
1992-01-01
Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Houghton, John
2005-06-01
'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.
Is cold or warm blood cardioplegia superior for myocardial protection?
Abah, Udo; Roberts, Patrick Garfjeld; Ishaq, Muhammad; De Silva, Ravi
2012-01-01
A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was whether the use of warm or cold blood cardioplegia has superior myocardial protection. More than 192 papers were found using the reported search, of which 20 represented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, journal, date, country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes and results of these papers are tabulated. A good breadth of high-level evidence addressing this clinical dilemma is available, including a recent meta-analysis and multiple large randomized clinical trials. Yet despite this level of evidence, no clear significant clinical benefit has been demonstrated by warm or cold blood cardioplegia. This suggests that neither method is significantly superior and that both provide similar efficacy of myocardial protection. The meta-analysis, including 41 randomized control trials (5879 patients in total), concluded that although a lower cardiac enzyme release and improved postoperative cardiac index was demonstrated in the warm cardioplegia group, this benefit was not reflected in clinical outcomes, which were similar in both groups. This theme of benefit in biochemical markers, physiological metrics and non-fatal postoperative events in the warm cardioplegia group ran throughout the literature, in particular the ‘Warm Heart investigators’ who conducted a randomized trial of 1732 patients, demonstrated a reduction in postoperative low output syndrome (6.1 versus 9.3%, P = 0.01) in the warm cardioplegia group, but no significant drop in 30-day all-cause mortality (1.4 versus 2.5%, P = 0.12). However, their later follow-up indicates non-fatal postoperative events predict reduced late survival, independent of cardioplegia. A minority of studies suggested a benefit of cold cardioplegia over warm in particular patient subgroups: One group conducted a retrospective study of 520 patients who
Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Orsolini, Yvan J.; Limpasuvan, Varavut; Pérot, Kristell; Espy, Patrick; Hibbins, Robert; Lossow, Stefan; Raaholt Larsson, Katarina; Murtagh, Donal
2017-03-01
Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4°N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.
2013-01-01
Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.
Chromium Isotope Anomaly Scaling with Past Warming Episodes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Remmelzwaal, S.; O'Connor, L.; Preston, W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Schmidt, D. N.
2017-12-01
The recent expansion of oxygen minimum zones caused by anthropogenic global warming raises questions about the scale of this expansion with different emission scenarios. Ocean deoxygenation will impact marine ecosystems and fisheries demanding an assessment of the possible extent and intensity of deoxygenation. Here, we used past climate warming events to quantify a potential link between warming and the spread of oxygen minimum zones: including Ocean Anoxic Event (OAE) 1a, OAE 2 in the Cretaceous, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. We applied the emerging proxy of chromium isotopes in planktic foraminifera to assess redox changes during the PETM, ETM2, and Pleistocene and bulk carbonate for the OAEs. Both δ53Cr and chromium concentrations respond markedly during the PETM indicative of a reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations caused by changes in ocean ventilation and associated warming [1]. A strong correlation between Δδ53Cr and benthic Δδ18O, a measure of the excursion size in both oxygen and chromium isotopes, suggest temperatures to be one of the main drivers of ocean deoxygenation in the past [1]. Chromium concentrations decrease during ETM2 and OAE1a, and, increase by 4.5 ppm over the Plenus Cold Event during OAE2, which suggests enhanced seafloor ventilation. [1] Remmelzwaal, S.R.C., Dixon, S., Parkinson, I.J., Schmidt, D.N., Monteiro, F.M., Sexton, P., Fehr, M., Peacock, C., Donnadieu, Y., James, R.H., in review. Ocean deoxygenation during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. EPSL.
Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide
Barnett, A.; Dobson, A.; McElduff, P.; Salomaa, V.; Kuulasmaa, K.; Sans, S.; t for
2005-01-01
Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35–64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days. PMID:15965137
Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.
2017-06-01
To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.
Constraining the trigger for an ancient warming episode
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schultz, Colin
2011-08-01
The Paleocene epoch (˜66-56 million years ago) was sandwiched between sudden climate shifts and mass extinctions. The boundary between the end of the Paleocene and the beginning of the Eocene (the P-E boundary) saw the global average temperature soar by 5°C over a few thousand years, leading to a pronounced reorganization of both terrestrial and oceanic plant and animal communities. The P-E boundary warming was triggered by an influx of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the influx's ultimate trigger is still being debated. Other prominent warming events within the Paleogene (˜66-23 million years ago), the broad time span that encompasses the Paleocene and Eocene, have been linked to regularly recurring changes in the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit that take place on 100,000- and 405,000-year cycles. Proponents of this view suggest that an alignment of the two cycles could lead to the warming of deep ocean waters, melting frozen methane and triggering an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, some studies have suggested that the P-E boundary warming was instead the product of geological processes, where carbon-rich rocks were baked by injected magma, which eventually liberated the carbon to the atmosphere. Deciding between proposed explanations for the cause of the P-E warming, whether they are astronomical or geological, depends on accurately pinning the event in time. (Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, doi:10.1029/2010GC003426, 2011)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bratu, S.
2012-04-01
glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Meltwater is the water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice and ice shelves in the oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reduced. In a report published in June 2007, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that global warming could lead to 40% of the world's population being affected by the loss of glaciers, snow and the associated meltwater in Asia. This is one of many activities of the physics laboratory that the students of our high school are involved in.
Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Qigang; Cheng, Luyao; Chan, Duo; Yao, Yonghong; Hu, Haibo; Yao, Ying
2016-03-01
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
Is Europa's Subsurface Water Ocean Warm?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Melosh, H. J.; Ekholm, A. G.; Showman, A. P.; Lorenz, R. D.
2002-01-01
Europa's subsurface water ocean may be warm: that is, at the temperature of water's maximum density. This provides a natural explanation of chaos melt-through events and leads to a correct estimate of the age of its surface. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming
Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong; ...
2017-07-10
Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less
Reduced North American terrestrial primary productivity linked to anomalous Arctic warming
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Kim, Jin-Soo; Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Su-Jong
Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse many observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amountmore » to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr -1 across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.« less
Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.
Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric
2010-04-23
Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.
Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani
2016-06-01
An extreme marine heat wave which affected 2000 km of the midwest coast of Australia occurred in the 2010/11 austral summer, with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies of 2-5°C above normal climatology. The heat wave was influenced by a strong Leeuwin Current during an extreme La Niña event at a global warming hot spot in the Indian Ocean. This event had a significant effect on the marine ecosystem with changes to seagrass/algae and coral habitats, as well as fish kills and southern extension of the range of some tropical species. The effect has been exacerbated by above-average SST in the following two summers, 2011/12 and 2012/13. This study examined the major impact the event had on invertebrate fisheries and the management adaption applied. A 99% mortality of Roei abalone ( Haliotis roei ) and major reductions in recruitment of scallops ( Amusium balloti ), king ( Penaeus latisulcatus ) and tiger ( P. esculentus ) prawns, and blue swimmer crabs were detected with management adapting with effort reductions or spatial/temporal closures to protect the spawning stock and restocking being evaluated. This study illustrates that fisheries management under extreme temperature events requires an early identification of temperature hot spots, early detection of abundance changes (preferably using pre-recruit surveys), and flexible harvest strategies which allow a quick response to minimize the effect of heavy fishing on poor recruitment to enable protection of the spawning stock. This has required researchers, managers, and industry to adapt to fish stocks affected by an extreme environmental event that may become more frequent due to climate change.
Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard-Oeschger events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lohmann, Johannes; Ditlevsen, Peter D.
2018-05-01
Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.
Fall season atypically warm weather event leads to substantial CH4 loss in Arctic ecosystems?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zona, Donatella; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Losacco, Salvatore; Murphy, Patrick; Oechel, Walter
2014-05-01
In the last century (during 1875-2008) high-latitudes are warming at a rate of 1.360C century-1, almost 2 times faster than the Northern Hemisphere trend (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This warming has been more intense outside of the summer season, with anomalies of 1.09, 1.59, 1.730C in the fall, winter, and spring season respectively (Bekryaev et al., 2010). This substantial temperature anomalies have the potential to increase the emission of greenhouse gas (CO2 and CH4) fluxes from arctic tundra ecosystems. In particular, CH4 emissions, which are primarily controlled by temperature (in addition to water table), can steeply increase with warming. Despite the potential relevance of CH4 emissions, very few measurements have been performed outside of the growing season across the entire Arctic, due to logistic constrains. Importantly, no flux measurements achieved a temporal and spatial data coverage sufficient to estimate with confidence an annual CH4 emissions from tundra ecosystem in Alaska, and its sensitivity to warming. Fall 2013 was unusually warm in central and northern Alaska. Following a relatively warm summer with dramatically above-average rainfall, the October mean monthly temperatures was the 4th and top warmest in Barrow (1949-2013) and Ivotuk (1998-2013), respectively. As we just upgraded several eddy covariance towers to measure CO2 and CH4 fluxes year-round, the atypical weather conditions of fall 2013 represented a unique chance for testing the sensitivity of CH4 loss to these atypically warm temperatures. All our sites across a latitudinal gradient (from the northern site, Barrow, to the southern site, Ivotuk), presented substantial CH4 loss in the fall. Importantly, in two of these sites (Barrow, Ivotuk) where the fall weather was substantially warmer than the long term trend, fall CH4 emission represented between 44-63% of the June-November cumulative emission. Surprisingly, in the southernmost site (Ivotuk), when the temperature anomaly was the
Suppressed mid-latitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Q.
2016-12-01
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heatwaves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature (SST) warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH mid-latitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH mid-latitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
Attributing extreme precipitation in the Black Sea region to sea surface warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meredith, Edmund; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Park, Wonsun; Chernokulsky, Alexander
2016-04-01
Higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warm and moisten the overlying atmosphere, increasing the low-level atmospheric instability, the moisture available to precipitating systems and, hence, the potential for intense convective systems. Both the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions have seen a steady increase in summertime SSTs since the early 1980s, by over 2 K in places. This raises the question of how this SST increase has affected convective precipitation extremes in the region, and through which mechanisms any effects are manifested. In particular, the Black Sea town of Krymsk suffered an unprecedented precipitation extreme in July 2012, which may have been influenced by Black Sea warming, causing over 170 deaths. To address this question, we adopt two distinct modelling approaches to event attribution and compare their relative merits. In the first, we use the traditional probabilistic event attribution approach involving global climate model ensembles representative of the present and a counterfactual past climate where regional SSTs have not increased. In the second, we use the conditional event attribution approach, taking the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme as a showcase example. Under the second approach, we carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments of the Krymsk event at convection-permitting resolution with the WRF regional model, and test the sensitivity of the event to a range of SST forcings. Both experiments show the crucial role of recent Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme. In the conditional event attribution approach, though, the explicit simulation of convective processes provides detailed insight into the physical mechanisms behind the extremeness of the event, revealing the dominant role of dynamical (i.e. static stability and vertical motions) over thermodynamical (i.e. increased atmospheric moisture) changes. Additionally, the wide range of SST states tested in the regional setup, which would be
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sridharan, S.
2017-04-01
The Global Positioning System (GPS) deduced total electron content (TEC) data at 15°N (geomagnetic), which is the northern crest region of equatorial ionization anomaly, are used to study solar and lunar tidal variabilities during the years 2008 and 2009 and also during the 2009-2010 winter, when a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has occurred. The diurnal and semidiurnal tidal amplitudes show semiannual variation with maximum amplitudes during February-March and September-November, whereas terdiurnal tide is larger during April-September. They show significant longitudinal variability with larger (smaller) amplitudes over 250°E-150°E (200°E-250°E). Lunar semidiurnal tidal amplitudes show sporadic enhancements during northern winter months and negligible amplitudes during northern summer months. They also show notable longitudinal variabilities. The solar migrating tides DW1 and SW2 show semiannual variation with larger amplitudes during spring equinox months, whereas TW3 maximizes during northern summer. DW2 shows larger amplitudes during summer months. During the SSW, except TW3, the migrating tides DW1 and SW2 show considerable enhancements. Among solar nonmigrating tides, SW1, TW2, and DS0 show larger enhancements. Solar tides in TEC and equatorial electrojet strength over Tirunelveli vary with the time scale of 60 days during October 2009-March 2010 similar to ozone mass mixing ratio at 10 hPa, and this confirms the vital role of ozone in tidal variabilities in ionospheric parameters. Lunar tidal amplitudes in changes in horizontal component of geomagnetic field (ΔH) are larger over Tirunelveli, a station near dip equator. Solar semidiurnal tides in ΔH have larger amplitudes than lunar tides over polar stations, Mawson and Godhavn.
Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.
Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon
2016-12-13
The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.
Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon
2016-12-01
The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Pengfei; Liu, Yimin
2016-01-01
Warm season heavy rainfall events over the Huaihe River Valley (HRV) of China are amongst the top causes of agriculture and economic loss in this region. Thus, there is a pressing need for accurate seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall events. This study improves the seasonal prediction of HRV heavy rainfall by implementing a novel rainfall framework, which overcomes the limitation of traditional probability models and advances the statistical inference on HRV heavy rainfall events. The framework is built on a three-cluster Normal mixture model, whose distribution parameters are sampled using Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The three rainfall clusters reflect probability behaviors of light, moderate, and heavy rainfall, respectively. Our analysis indicates that heavy rainfall events make the largest contribution to the total amount of seasonal precipitation. Furthermore, the interannual variation of summer precipitation is attributable to the variation of heavy rainfall frequency over the HRV. The heavy rainfall frequency, in turn, is influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the north Indian Ocean, equatorial western Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic. The tropical SSTAs modulate the HRV heavy rainfall events by influencing atmospheric circulation favorable for the onset and maintenance of heavy rainfall events. Occurring 5 months prior to the summer season, these tropical SSTAs provide potential sources of prediction skill for heavy rainfall events over the HRV. Using these preceding SSTA signals, we show that the support vector machine algorithm can predict HRV heavy rainfall satisfactorily. The improved prediction skill has important implication for the nation's disaster early warning system.
Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.
2016-12-01
The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.
Anthropogenic warming exacerbates European soil moisture droughts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samaniego, L.; Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Rakovec, O.; Pan, M.; Zink, M.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Marx, A.
2018-05-01
Anthropogenic warming is anticipated to increase soil moisture drought in the future. However, projections are accompanied by large uncertainty due to varying estimates of future warming. Here, using an ensemble of hydrological and land-surface models, forced with bias-corrected downscaled general circulation model output, we estimate the impacts of 1-3 K global mean temperature increases on soil moisture droughts in Europe. Compared to the 1.5 K Paris target, an increase of 3 K—which represents current projected temperature change—is found to increase drought area by 40% (±24%), affecting up to 42% (±22%) more of the population. Furthermore, an event similar to the 2003 drought is shown to become twice as frequent; thus, due to their increased occurrence, events of this magnitude will no longer be classified as extreme. In the absence of effective mitigation, Europe will therefore face unprecedented increases in soil moisture drought, presenting new challenges for adaptation across the continent.
Recent climate extremes associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode
Funk, Chris; Hoell, Andrew
2017-01-01
Here we analyze empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of observations and a 30 member ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, and suggest that precipitation declines in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and the northern Middle East/Southwestern Asia (NME/SWE: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia north of 25°N, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon) may be interpreted as an interaction between La Niña-like decadal variability and the West Pacific Warming Mode (WPWM). While they exhibit different SST patterns, warming of the Pacific cold tongue (ENSO) and warming of the western Pacific (WPWM) produce similar warm pool diabatic forcing, Walker circulation anomalies, and terrestrial teleconnections. CESM1 SST EOFs indicate that both La Niña-like WPWM warming and El Niño-like east Pacific warming will be produced by climate change. The temporal frequency of these changes, however, are distinct. WPWM varies decadally, while ENSO is dominated by interannual variability. Future WPWM and ENSO warming may manifest as a tendency toward warm West Pacific SST, punctuated by extreme warm East Pacific events. WPWM EOFs from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation also identify dramatic WPWM-related declines in the Greater Horn of Africa and NME/SWE.
Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.
Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa
2015-07-13
The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.
Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.
Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L
2015-01-01
Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.
Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances
Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.
2015-01-01
Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586
An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.
2013-01-01
Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.
Continental warming preceding the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum.
Secord, Ross; Gingerich, Philip D; Lohmann, Kyger C; Macleod, Kenneth G
2010-10-21
Marine and continental records show an abrupt negative shift in carbon isotope values at ∼55.8 Myr ago. This carbon isotope excursion (CIE) is consistent with the release of a massive amount of isotopically light carbon into the atmosphere and was associated with a dramatic rise in global temperatures termed the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). Greenhouse gases released during the CIE, probably including methane, have often been considered the main cause of PETM warming. However, some evidence from the marine record suggests that warming directly preceded the CIE, raising the possibility that the CIE and PETM may have been linked to earlier warming with different origins. Yet pre-CIE warming is still uncertain. Disentangling the sequence of events before and during the CIE and PETM is important for understanding the causes of, and Earth system responses to, abrupt climate change. Here we show that continental warming of about 5 °C preceded the CIE in the Bighorn Basin, Wyoming. Our evidence, based on oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth (which reflect temperature-sensitive fractionation processes) and other proxies, reveals a marked temperature increase directly below the CIE, and again in the CIE. Pre-CIE warming is also supported by a negative amplification of δ(13)C values in soil carbonates below the CIE. Our results suggest that at least two sources of warming-the earlier of which is unlikely to have been methane-contributed to the PETM.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mascioli, Nora R.
Extreme temperatures, heat waves, heavy rainfall events, drought, and extreme air pollution events have adverse effects on human health, infrastructure, agriculture and economies. The frequency, magnitude and duration of these events are expected to change in the future in response to increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosols, but future climate projections are uncertain. A significant portion of this uncertainty arises from uncertainty in the effects of aerosol forcing: to what extent were the effects from greenhouse gases masked by aerosol forcing over the historical observational period, and how much will decreases in aerosol forcing influence regional and global climate over the remainder of the 21st century? The observed frequency and intensity of extreme heat and precipitation events have increased in the U.S. over the latter half of the 20th century. Using aerosol only (AER) and greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulations from 1860 to 2005 in the GFDL CM3 chemistry-climate model, I parse apart the competing influences of aerosols and greenhouse gases on these extreme events. I find that small changes in extremes in the "all forcing" simulations reflect cancellations between the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases. In AER, extreme high temperatures and the number of days with temperatures above the 90th percentile decline over most of the U.S., while in GHG high temperature extremes increase over most of the U.S. The spatial response patterns in AER and GHG are significantly anti-correlated, suggesting a preferred regional mode of response that is largely independent of the type of forcing. Extreme precipitation over the eastern U.S. decreases in AER, particularly in winter, and increases over the eastern and central U.S. in GHG, particularly in spring. Over the 21 st century under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation change associated with greenhouse gas forcing dominate. The
Warm-Up Strategies for Sport and Exercise: Mechanisms and Applications.
McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben
2015-11-01
It is widely accepted that warming-up prior to exercise is vital for the attainment of optimum performance. Both passive and active warm-up can evoke temperature, metabolic, neural and psychology-related effects, including increased anaerobic metabolism, elevated oxygen uptake kinetics and post-activation potentiation. Passive warm-up can increase body temperature without depleting energy substrate stores, as occurs during the physical activity associated with active warm-up. While the use of passive warm-up alone is not commonplace, the idea of utilizing passive warming techniques to maintain elevated core and muscle temperature throughout the transition phase (the period between completion of the warm-up and the start of the event) is gaining in popularity. Active warm-up induces greater metabolic changes, leading to increased preparedness for a subsequent exercise task. Until recently, only modest scientific evidence was available supporting the effectiveness of pre-competition warm-ups, with early studies often containing relatively few participants and focusing mostly on physiological rather than performance-related changes. External issues faced by athletes pre-competition, including access to equipment and the length of the transition/marshalling phase, have also frequently been overlooked. Consequently, warm-up strategies have continued to develop largely on a trial-and-error basis, utilizing coach and athlete experiences rather than scientific evidence. However, over the past decade or so, new research has emerged, providing greater insight into how and why warm-up influences subsequent performance. This review identifies potential physiological mechanisms underpinning warm-ups and how they can affect subsequent exercise performance, and provides recommendations for warm-up strategy design for specific individual and team sports.
The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.
2016-08-01
The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.
A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.
2012-01-01
How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.
Response of the Antarctic Stratosphere to Two Types of El Nino Events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Oman, L. D.; Molod, A. M.
2010-01-01
This study is the first to identify a robust El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the Antarctic stratosphere. El Nino events are classified as either conventional "cold tongue" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 3 region) or "warm pool" events (positive SST anomalies in the Nino 4 region). The ERA-40, NCEP and MERRA meteorological reanalyses are used to show that the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere responds differently to these two types of El Nino events. Consistent with previous studies, "cold tongue" events do not impact temperatures in the Antarctic stratosphere. During "warm pool" El Nino events, the poleward extension and increased strength of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) favor an enhancement of planetary wave activity during the SON season. On average, these conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and a weakening of the Antarctic polar jet in November and December, as compared with neutral ENSO years. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the stratospheric response to "warm pool" El Nino events: the strongest planetary wave driving events are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO.
Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Purschke, Oliver; Ciobanu, Marcel; Cowles, Jane; Isbell, Forest; Wragg, Peter D.; Eisenhauer, Nico
2017-01-01
Climate warming is predicted to alter species interactions, which could potentially lead to extinction events. However, there is an ongoing debate whether the effects of warming on biodiversity may be moderated by biodiversity itself. We tested warming effects on soil nematodes, one of the most diverse and abundant metazoans in terrestrial ecosystems, along a gradient of environmental complexity created by a gradient of plant species richness. Warming increased nematode species diversity in complex (16-species mixtures) plant communities (by ~36%) but decreased it in simple (monocultures) plant communities (by ~39%) compared to ambient temperature. Further, warming led to higher levels of taxonomic relatedness in nematode communities across all levels of plant species richness. Our results highlight both the need for maintaining species-rich plant communities to help offset detrimental warming effects and the inability of species-rich plant communities to maintain nematode taxonomic distinctness when warming occur. PMID:28740868
Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,
2014-01-01
Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Niño-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Niña events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988–1989, 1998–2000, 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Niña events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Niña event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts.
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.
2017-01-01
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.
2017-02-01
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.
Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N
2017-02-07
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.
Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale
Neelin, J. David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; ...
2017-01-23
Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing withmore » event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.« less
Increasing flash droughts over China during the recent global warming hiatus
Wang, Linying; Yuan, Xing; Xie, Zhenghui; Wu, Peili; Li, Yaohui
2016-01-01
The recent global warming slowdown or hiatus after the big El Niño event in 1997/98 raises the questions of whether terrestrial hydrological cycle is being decelerated and how do the hydrological extremes respond to the hiatus. However, the rapidly developing drought events that are termed as “flash droughts” accompanied by extreme heat, low soil moisture and high evapotranspiration (ET), occurred frequently around the world, and caused devastating impacts on crop yields and water supply. Here, we investigate the long-term trend and variability of flash droughts over China. Flash droughts are most likely to occur over humid and semi-humid regions, such as southern and northeastern China. Flash drought averaged over China increased by 109% from 1979 to 2010, and the increase was mainly due to a long term warming of temperature (50%), followed by the contributions from decreasing soil moisture and increasing ET. There was a slight drop in temperature after 1997, but the increasing trend of flash droughts was tripled. Further results indicate that the decreasing temperature was compensated by the accelerated drying trends of soil moisture and enhanced ET, leading to an acceleration of flash droughts during the warming hiatus. The anthropogenic warming in the next few decades may exacerbate future flash drought conditions in China. PMID:27513724
The Holocene warm-humid phases in the North China Plain as recorded by multi-proxy records
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cui, Jianxin; Zhou, Shangzhe; Chang, Hong
2009-02-01
The grain size and palinology of sediment and the frequency of 14C dada provide an integrated reconstruction of the Holocene warm-humid phases of the North China Plain. Two clear intense and long-lasting warm-humid phases were identified by comprehensive research in this region. The first phase was dated back to the early Holocene (9 000-7 000 a BP), and the second was centered at 5 000-3 000 a BP. The warm-humid episode between 9 000 and 7 000 a BP was also recognized at other sites showing global climatic trends rather than local events. Compared with the concern to the warm-humid phase of the early Holocene, the second one was not paid enough attention in the last few decades. The compilation of the Holocene paleoclimate data suggests that perhaps the second warm-humid phase was pervasive in monsoon region of China. In perspective of environmental archaeology, much attention should be devoted to it, because the flourish and adaptation of the Neolithic cultures and the building up of the first state seem to corresponding to the general warm-humid climatic conditions of this period. In addition, a warm-humid interval at 7 200-6 500 a BP was recognized by the grain size data from three sites. However, this warm-humid event was not shown in pollen assemblage and temporal distribution of 14C data. Perhaps, the resolution for climatic reconstruction from pollen and temporal distribution of 14C data cited here is relatively low and small-amplitude and short-period climatic events cannot be well reflected by the data. Due to the difference in locality and elevation of sampling site, as well as in resolution of proxy records, it is difficult to make precise correlation. Further work is needed in the future.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Koval, Andrey V.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.; Savenkova, Elena N.
2018-04-01
Parameterization schemes of atmospheric normal modes (NMs) and orographic gravity waves (OGWs) have been implemented into the mechanistic Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) simulating atmospheric general circulation. Based on the 12-members ensemble of runs with the MUAM, a composite of the stratospheric warming (SW) has been constructed using the UK Met Office data as the lower boundary conditions. The simulation results show that OGW amplitudes increase at altitudes above 30 km in the Northern Hemisphere after the SW event. At altitudes of about 50 km, OGWs have largest amplitudes over North American and European mountain systems before and during the composite SW, and over Himalayas after the SW. Simulations demonstrate substantial (up to 50-70%) variations of amplitudes of stationary planetary waves (PWs) during and after the SW in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. Westward travelling NMs have amplitude maxima not only in the Northern, but also in the Southern Hemisphere, where these modes have waveguides in the middle and upper atmosphere. Simulated variations of PW and NM amplitudes correspond to changes in the mean zonal wind, EP-fluxes and wave refractive index at different phases of the composite SW events. Inclusion of the parameterization of OGW effects leads to decreases in amplitudes (up to 15%) of almost all SPWs before and after the SW event and their increase (up to 40-60%) after the SW in the stratosphere and mesosphere at middle and high northern latitudes. It is suggested that observed changes in NM amplitudes in the Southern Hemisphere during SW could be caused by divergence of increased southward EP-flux. This EP-flux increases due to OGW drag before SW and extends into the Southern Hemisphere.
Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.
2015-12-01
Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.
Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald
2016-10-01
The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.
Solar Eclipse Engagement and Outreach in Madras and Warm Springs, Oregon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kirk, M. S.; Pesnell, W. D.; Ahern, S.; Boyle, M.; Gonzales, T.; Leone, C.
2017-12-01
The Central Oregon towns of Madras and Warm Springs were in an ideal location to observe the total solar eclipse of 2017. In anticipation of this event, we embarked on a yearlong partnership to engage and excite these communities. We developed educational events for all students in the school district, grades K-12, as well as two evening keynote addresses during an eclipse week in May. This eclipse week provided resources, learning opportunities, and safety information for all students and families prior to the end of the school year. With the collaboration of graphic design students at Oregon State University, we produced static educational displays as an introduction to the Museum at Warm Springs' exhibit featuring eclipse art. The weekend before the eclipse, we gave away 15,000 pairs of solar viewing glasses to the local community and manned a science booth at the Oregon Solarfest to engage the arriving eclipse tourists. These efforts culminated on Monday, August 21st with tens of thousands of people viewing eclipse totality in Madras and Warm Springs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lauterbach, Stefan; Andersen, Nils; Erlenkeuser, Helmut; Danielopol, Dan L.; Namiotko, Tadeusz; Hüls, Matthias; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Nantke, Carla; Meyer, Hanno; Chapligin, Bernhard; von Grafenstein, Uli; Brauer, Achim
2017-04-01
As evidenced by numerous palaeoclimate records worldwide, the Holocene warm period has been punctuated by several short, low-amplitude cold episodes. Among these, the so-called 8.2 ka cold event represents a particularly prominent climate anomaly. Accordingly, several proxy-based and modeling studies have addressed its causal mechanisms, absolute dating, duration, amplitude, spatio-temporal characteristics and environmental consequences so far. However, knowledge about the dynamics and causes of subsequent climate recovery is still limited although this is essential for understanding rapid climate change. Here we present a new sub-decadally resolved and precisely dated oxygen isotope (δ18O) record for the interval 7.7-8.7 ka BP derived from benthic ostracods preserved in the varved lake sediments of pre-Alpine Mondsee (Austria), providing new insights into climate development around the 8.2 ka cold event in Central Europe. The high-resolution Mondsee δ18O record reveals the occurrence of a pronounced cold spell around 8.2 ka BP, whose amplitude (˜1.0 ‰ , equivalent to a 1.5-2.0 ˚ C cooling), total duration (151 years) and absolute dating (8231-8080 varve years BP, i.e. calendar years before AD 1950) agrees well with results from other Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives, e.g. the Greenland ice cores. In addition, the Mondsee data set provides evidence for a 75-year-long δ18O overshoot directly following the 8.2 ka event (between 8080 and 8005 varve years BP), which is interpreted as a period of excess warming (about 0.5-0.6 ˚ C above the pre-8.2 ka event level) in Central Europe. Though so far not been explicitly described elsewhere, this observation is consistent with evidence from other proxy records in the North Atlantic realm, therefore likely reflecting a hemispheric-scale signal rather than a local phenomenon. As a possible trigger we suggest an enhanced resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), supporting
On statistical irregularity of stratospheric warming occurrence during northern winters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Savenkova, Elena N.; Gavrilov, Nikolai M.; Pogoreltsev, Alexander I.
2017-10-01
Statistical analysis of dates of warming events observed during the years 1981-2016 at different stratospheric altitudes reveals their non-uniform distributions during northern winter months with maxima at the beginning of January, at the end of January - beginning of February and at the end of February. Climatology of zonal-mean zonal wind, deviations of temperature from its winter-averaged values, and planetary wave (PW) characteristics at high and middle northern latitudes in the altitude range from the ground up to 60 km is studied using the database of meteorological reanalysis MERRA. Climatological temperature deviations averaged over the 60-90°N latitudinal bands reveal cooler and warmer layers descending due to seasonal changes during the polar night. PW amplitudes and upward Eliassen-Palm fluxes averaged over 36 years have periodical maxima with the main maximum at the beginning of January at altitudes 40-50 km. During the above-mentioned intervals of more frequent occurrence of stratospheric warming events, maxima of PW amplitudes and Eliassen-Palm fluxes, also minima of eastward winds in the high-latitude northern stratosphere have been found. Climatological intra-seasonal irregularities of stratospheric warming dates could indicate reiterating phases of stratospheric vacillations in different years.
El Nino-like events during Miocene
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Casey, R.E.; Nelson, C.O.; Weinheimer, A.L.
El Nino-like events have been recorded from the Miocene laminated siliceous facies of the Monterey Formation. These El Nino-like Miocene events are compared to El Nino events recorded from Holocene varved sediments deposited within the anoxic Santa Barbara basin. Strong El Nino events can be recognized from Holocene Santa Barbara basin sediments by increases in radiolarian flux to the sea floor during those events. For the last 100-plus years, frequency of strong El Ninos has been on the order of one extremely strong event about every 100 years, and one easily recognizable event about every 18 years. Frequencies in themore » laminated (varved) Miocene range from about every 4-5 years to over 20 years. The higher frequencies occur within generally warm intervals and the lower frequencies within generally cold intervals. Perhaps the frequencies of these events may, in fact, be an important indicator in determining whether the intervals were cold or warm. Reconstructions of the paleo-California Current system during El Nino-like periods have been made for the west coast from the Gulf of California to northern California. Strong El Nino-like events occurred 5.5 and 8 Ma, and a strong anti-El Nino-like event occurred at about 6.5 Ma. Evidence from the 5.5 and 8 Ma events combined with other evidence suggests that modern El Ninos, similar to today's, were initiated at 5.5 Ma or earlier.« less
Santos, R M; Saggio, A A; Silva, T L R; Negreiros, N F; Rocha, O
2015-01-01
In lentic freshwater ecosystems, patterns of thermal stratification play a considerable part in determining the population dynamics of phytoplankton. In this study we investigated how these thermal patterns and the associated hydrodynamic processes affect the vertical distribution of phytoplankton during two consecutive diel cycles in a warm polymictic urban reservoir in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil. Water samples were taken and physical, chemical and biological data collected at half-meter intervals of depth along a water column at a fixed site, every 3 hours throughout the 48-hour period. Two events of stratification, followed by deepening of the thermocline occurred during the study period and led to changes in the vertical distribution of phytoplankton populations. Aphanocapsa delicatissima Nägeli was the single dominant species throughout the 48-hour period. In the second diel cycle, the density gradient induced by temperature differences avoided the sedimentation of Mougeotia sp. C. Agardh to the deepest layers. On the other hand, Pseudanabaena galeata Böcher remained in the 4.0-5.5 m deep layer. The thermal structure of the water was directly affected by two meteorological factors: air temperature and wind speed. Changes in the cell density and vertical distribution of the phytoplankton were controlled by the thermal and hydrodynamic events.
Precipitation Anomalies in Southern Brazil Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grimm, Alice M.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.; Gomes, Júlio
1998-11-01
The impact of El Niño and La Niña events (warm and cold phases of the Southern Oscillation) on rainfall over southern Brazil is investigated through the use of a large dataset of monthly precipitation from 250 stations. This region is partly dominated by rough orography and presents different climatic regimes of rainfall. As previous global studies on Southern Oscillation-precipitation relationships used data from only two stations in southern Brazil, this region was not included in the area of consistent Southern Oscillation-related precipitation in southeastern South America. The present analysis is based on the method by Ropelewski and Halpert, the sensitivity of which is assessed for this region. The spatial structure of the rainfall anomalies associated with warm (cold) events is analyzed and subregions with coherent anomalies are determined. Their distribution indicates the influence of relief, latitude, and proximity to the ocean. These areas are subjected to further analysis to determine the seasons of largest anomalies and assess their consistency during warm (cold) events.The whole of southern Brazil was found to have strong and consistent precipitation anomalies associated with those events. Their magnitude is even larger than in Argentina and Uruguay. All of the subregions have consistent wet anomalies during the austral spring of the warm event year, with a pronounced peak in November. The southeastern part also shows a consistent tendency to higher than average rainfall during the austral winter of the following year. There is also a consistent tendency to dryness in the year before a warm event. During the spring of cold event years strong consistent dry anomalies prevail over the whole region, also with maximum magnitude in November. They are even stronger and more consistent than the wet anomalies in warm event years. Consistent anomalies do not occur over large areas in the years before and after cold events. The wet anomalies during the austral
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Reumont, J.; Hetzinger, S.; Garbe-Schönberg, D.; Manfrino, C.; Dullo, W.-Chr.
2016-03-01
The rising temperature of the world's oceans is affecting coral reef ecosystems by increasing the frequency and severity of bleaching and mortality events. The susceptibility of corals to temperature stress varies on local and regional scales. Insights into potential controlling parameters are hampered by a lack of long term in situ data in most coral reef environments and sea surface temperature (SST) products often do not resolve reef-scale variations. Here we use 42 years (1970-2012) of coral Sr/Ca data to reconstruct seasonal- to decadal-scale SST variations in two adjacent but distinct reef environments at Little Cayman, Cayman Islands. Our results indicate that two massive Diploria strigosa corals growing in the lagoon and in the fore reef responded differently to past warming events. Coral Sr/Ca data from the shallow lagoon successfully record high summer temperatures confirmed by in situ observations (>33°C). Surprisingly, coral Sr/Ca from the deeper fore reef is strongly affected by thermal stress events, although seasonal temperature extremes and mean SSTs at this site are reduced compared to the lagoon. The shallow lagoon coral showed decadal variations in Sr/Ca, supposedly related to the modulation of lagoonal temperature through varying tidal water exchange, influenced by the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Our results show that reef-scale SST variability can be much larger than suggested by satellite SST measurements. Thus, using coral SST proxy records from different reef zones combined with in situ observations will improve conservation programs that are developed to monitor and predict potential thermal stress on coral reefs.
Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming
Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.
2016-01-01
The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.
Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.
Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho
2015-05-12
Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.
Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming
Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho
2015-01-01
Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494
Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Santoso, Agus; Lin, Xiaopei; Chen, Zhaohui; McPhaden, Michael J.
2017-08-01
The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global mean temperature (GMT) increases to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5 °C. However, the pathway to these targets and the impacts of a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on extreme El Niño and La Niña events--which severely influence weather patterns, agriculture, ecosystems, public health and economies--is little known. Here, by analysing climate models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 5 (CMIP5; ref. ) under a most likely emission scenario, we demonstrate that extreme El Niño frequency increases linearly with the GMT towards a doubling at 1.5 °C warming. This increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events continues for up to a century after GMT has stabilized, underpinned by an oceanic thermocline deepening that sustains faster warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the off-equatorial region. Ultimately, this implies a higher risk of extreme El Niño to future generations after GMT rise has halted. On the other hand, whereas previous research suggests extreme La Niña events may double in frequency under the 4.5 °C warming scenario, the results presented here indicate little to no change under 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.
Remote sensing, global warming, and vector-borne disease
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wood, B.; Beck, L.; Dister, S.
1997-12-31
The relationship between climate change and the pattern of vector-borne disease can be viewed at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. At one extreme are changes such as global warming, which are continental in scale and occur over periods of years, decades, or longer. At the opposite extreme are changes associated with severe weather events, which can occur at local and regional scales over periods of days, weeks, or months. Key ecological factors affecting the distribution of vector-borne diseases include temperature, precipitation, and habitat availability, and their impact on vectors, pathogens, reservoirs, and hosts. Global warming can potentially altermore » these factors, thereby affecting the spatial and temporal patterns of disease.« less
Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota
Harvell, C.D.; Mitchell, C.E.; Ward, J.R.; Altizer, S.; Dobson, A.P.; Ostfeld, R.S.; Samuel, M.D.
2002-01-01
Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.
Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harvell, C. Drew; Mitchell, Charles E.; Ward, Jessica R.; Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Samuel, Michael D.
2002-06-01
Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.
Mechanism for Surface Warming in the Equatorial Pacific during 1994-95
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rienecker, Michele M.; Borovikov, Anna; Schopf, Paul S.
1999-01-01
Mechanisms controlling the variation in sea surface temperature warm event in the equatorial Pacific were investigated through ocean model simulations. In addition, the mechanisms of the climatological SST cycle were investigated. The dominant mechanisms governing the seasonal cycle of SST vary significantly across the basin. In the western Pacific the annual cycle of SST is primarily in response to external heat flux. In the central basin the magnitude of zonal advection is comparable to that of the external heat flux. In the eastern basin the role of zonal advection is reduced and the vertical mixing is more important. In the easternmost equatorial Pacific the vertical entrainment contribution is as large as that of vertical diffusion. The model estimate of the vertical mixing contribution to the mixed layer heat budget compared well with estimates obtained by analysis of observations using the same diagnostic vertical mixing scheme. During 1994- 1995 the largest positive SST anomaly was observed in the mid-basin and was related to reduced latent heat flux due to weak surface winds. In the western basin the initial warming was related to enhanced external heating and reduced cooling effects of both vertical mixing and horizontal advection associated with weaker than usual wind stress. In the eastern Pacific where winds were not significantly anomalous throughout 1994-1995, only a moderate warm surface anomaly was detected. This is in contrast to strong El Nino events where the SST anomaly is largest in the eastern basin and, as shown by previous studies, the anomaly is due to zonal advection rather than anomalous surface heat flux. The end of the warm event was marked by cooling in July 1995 everywhere across the equatorial Pacific.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hileman, Bette
1989-01-01
States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)
Multiple Glass Transitions and Freezing Events of Aqueous Citric Acid
2014-01-01
Calorimetric and optical cryo-microscope measurements of 10–64 wt % citric acid (CA) solutions subjected to moderate (3 K/min) and slow (0.5 and 0.1 K/min) cooling/warming rates and also to quenching/moderate warming between 320 and 133 K are presented. Depending on solution concentration and cooling rate, the obtained thermograms show one freezing event and from one to three liquid–glass transitions upon cooling and from one to six liquid–glass and reverse glass–liquid transitions, one or two freezing events, and one melting event upon warming of frozen/glassy CA/H2O. The multiple freezing events and glass transitions pertain to the mother CA/H2O solution itself and two freeze-concentrated solution regions, FCS1 and FCS2, of different concentrations. The FCS1 and FCS2 (or FCS22) are formed during the freezing of CA/H2O upon cooling and/or during the freezing upon warming of partly glassy or entirely glassy mother CA/H2O. The formation of two FCS1 and FCS22 regions during the freezing upon warming to our best knowledge has never been reported before. Using an optical cryo-microscope, we are able to observe the formation of a continuous ice framework (IF) and its morphology and reciprocal distribution of IF/(FCS1 + FCS2). Our results provide a new look at the freezing and glass transition behavior of aqueous solutions and can be used for the optimization of lyophilization and freezing of foods and biopharmaceutical formulations, among many other applications where freezing plays a crucial role. PMID:25482069
Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?
Zell, Roland; Krumbholz, Andi; Wutzler, Peter
2008-12-01
Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin
2018-06-01
Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.
Changes in "hotter and wetter" events across China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, C.; Deng, H.; Lu, Y.; Qiu, X.; Wang, D.
2017-12-01
As global warming intensifies, efforts to understand the changes in extreme climate events have increased in recent years. A combined analysis of the changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events is presented in this paper. Using observational data from 1961 to 2015, a set of hotter and wetter (HW) events is defined, and we examine the changes in these events across China. The results show that more HW events occur in Central and Eastern China than in other subregions, especially in South China (SC). The rate of increase in HW events is 2.7 and 1.9 per decade in SC and East China (EC), respectively. In China, most HW events occurred in the last 20 years of the study period, indicating that China entered a period of high-frequency HW events. Indeed, the range in anomalies in the torrential rain days is greater than that of the high-temperature days in Northwest China (NWC), Central China (CC), and EC after the mid- to late 1990s. The opposite pattern is found in Northeast China (NEC), Southwest China-region 1 (SWC1), Southwest China-region 2 (SWC2), and SC. Finally, the increase in HW events in most regions of China is closely associated with warming.
Consecutive record-breaking high temperatures marked the handover from hiatus to accelerated warming
Su, Jingzhi; Zhang, Renhe; Wang, Huijun
2017-01-01
Closely following the hiatus warming period, two astonishing high temperature records reached in 2014 and 2015 consecutively. To investigate the occurrence features of record-breaking high temperatures in recent years, a new index focusing the frequency of the top 10 high annual mean temperatures was defined in this study. Analyses based on this index shown that record-breaking high temperatures occurred over most regions of the globe with a salient increasing trend after 1960 s, even during the so-called hiatus period. Overlapped on the ongoing background warming trend and the interdecadal climate variabilities, the El Niño events, particularly the strong ones, can make a significant contribution to the occurrence of high temperatures on interannual timescale. High temperatures associated with El Niño events mainly occurred during the winter annual period. As the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) struggled back to its positive phase since 2014, the global warming returned back to a new accelerated warming period, marked by the record-breaking high temperatures in 2014. Intensified by the super strong El Niño, successive high records occurred in 2015 and 2016. Higher frequencies of record high temperatures would occur in the near future because the PDO tends to maintain a continuously positive phase. PMID:28256561
Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf
2016-01-01
Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity PMID:26888225
The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping
2016-09-01
Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.
Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.
2017-10-01
Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.
2013-07-01
Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are
A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin
2016-01-01
Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.
Efficient Warm-ups: Creating a Warm-up That Works.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lauffenburger, Sandra Kay
1992-01-01
Proper warm-up is important for any activity, but designing an effective warm-up can be time consuming. An alternative approach is to take a cue from Laban Movement Analysis (LMA) and consider movement design from the perspective of space and planes of motion. Efficient warm-up exercises using LMA are described. (SM)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Lei; Li, Tim
2017-02-01
Most of CMIP5 models projected a weakened Walker circulation in tropical Pacific, but what causes such change is still an open question. By conducting idealized numerical simulations separating the effects of the spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, extra land surface warming and differential SST warming, we demonstrate that the weakening of the Walker circulation is attributed to the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and South America land effects. The effect of the uniform SST warming is through so-called "richest-get-richer" mechanism. In response to a uniform surface warming, the WNP monsoon is enhanced by competing moisture with other large-scale convective branches. The strengthened WNP monsoon further induces surface westerlies in the equatorial western-central Pacific, weakening the Walker circulation. The increase of the greenhouse gases leads to a larger land surface warming than ocean surface. As a result, a greater thermal contrast occurs between American Continent and equatorial Pacific. The so-induced zonal pressure gradient anomaly forces low-level westerly anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and weakens the Walker circulation. The differential SST warming also plays a role in driving low-level westerly anomalies over tropical Pacific. But such an effect involves a positive air-sea feedback that amplifies the weakening of both east-west SST gradient and Pacific trade winds.
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-07
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-20
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-01-01
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914
Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-01
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard Van Der
2016-09-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.
Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A; Schrier, Gerard van der
2016-09-08
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, J.; Wang, S.
2017-12-01
Gravity wave drag (GWD) is among the drivers of meridional overturning in the middle atmosphere, also known as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, and of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The small spatial scales and complications due to wave breaking require their effects to be parameterised. GWD parameterizations are usually divided into two parts, orographic and non-orographic. The basic dynamical and physical processes of the middle atmosphere and the mechanism of the interactions between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere were studied in the frame of a general circulation model. The model for the troposphere was expanded to a global model considering middle atmosphere with the capability of describing the basic processes in the middle atmosphere and the troposphere-middle atmosphere interactions. Currently, it is too costly to include full non-hydrostatic and rotational wave dynamics in an operational parameterization. The hydrostatic non-rotational wave dynamics which allow an efficient implementation that is suitably fast for operation. The simplified parameterization of non-orographic GWD follows from the WM96 scheme in which a framework is developed using conservative propagation of gravity waves, critical level filtering, and non-linear dissipation. In order to simulate and analysis the influence of non-orographic GWD on the stratospheric wind and temperature fields, experiments using Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) event case occurred in January 2013 were carried out, and results of objective weather forecast verifications of the two months period were compared in detail. The verification of monthly mean of forecast anomaly correlation (ACC) and root mean square (RMS) errors shows consistently positive impact of non-orographic GWD on skill score of forecasting for the three to eight days, both in the stratosphere and troposphere, and visible positive impact on prediction of the stratospheric wind and temperature fields. Numerical simulation
Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diffenbaugh, N. S.
2017-12-01
Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.
Solar Forced Dansgaard/Oeschger Events?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Muscheler, R.; Beer, J.
2006-01-01
Climate records for the last ice age (which ended 11,500 years ago) show enormous climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic region - the so-called Dansgaard/Oeschger events. During these events air temperatures in Greenland changed on the order of 10 degrees Celsius within a few decades. These changes were attributed to shifts in ocean circulation which influences the warm water supply from lower latitudes to the North Atlantic region. Interestingly, the rapid warmings tend to recur approximately every 1500 years or multiples thereof. This has led researchers to speculate about an external cause for these changes with the variable Sun being one possible candidate. Support for this hypothesis came from climate reconstructions, which suggested that the Sun influenced the climate in the North Atlantic region on these time scales during the last approximately 12,000 years of relatively stable Holocene climate. However, Be-10 measurements in ice cores do not indicate that the Sun caused or triggered the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Depending on the solar magnetic shielding more or less Be-10 is produced in the Earth's atmosphere. Therefore, 10Be can be used as a proxy for solar activity changes. Since Be-10 can be measured in ice cores, it is possible to compare the variable solar forcing directly with the climate record from the same ice core. This removes any uncertainties in the relative dating, and the solar-climate link can be reliably studied. Notwithstanding that some Dansgaard/Oeschger warmings could be related to increased solar activity, there is no indication that this is the case for all of the Dansgaard/Oeschger events. Therefore, during the last ice age the Be-10 and ice core climate data do not indicate a persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peters, D. H. W.; Schneidereit, A.; Grams, C. M.; Quinting, J. F.; Keller, J. H.; Wolf, G. A.; Teubler, F.; Riemer, M.; Romppainen-Martius, O.
2017-12-01
Tropospheric forcing of planetary wavenumber 2 is examined in the prephase of the major stratospheric sudden warming event in January 2009 (MSSW 2009). Because of a huge increase in Eliassen-Palm fluxes induced mainly by wavenumber 2, easterly angular momentum is transported into the Arctic stratosphere, deposited, and then decelerates the polar night jet. In agreement with earlier studies, the results reveal that the strongest eddy heat fluxes, associated with wavenumber 2, occur at 100hPa during the prephase of MSSW 2009 in ERA-Interim. In addition, moderate conditions of the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña) contribute to the eddy heat flux anomaly. It is shown that enhanced tropospheric wave forcing over Alaska and Scandinavia is caused by tropical processes in two ways. First, in a climatological sense, La Niña contributes to an enhanced anticyclonic flow over both regions. Second, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has an indirect influence on the Alaskan ridge by enhancing eddy activity over the North Pacific. This is manifested in an increase in cyclone frequency and associated warm conveyor belt outflow, which contribute to the maintenance and amplification of the Alaskan anticyclone. The Scandinavian ridge is maintained by wave trains emanating from the Alaskan ridge propagating eastward, including an enhanced transport of eddy kinetic energy. The MSSW2009 is an extraordinary case of how a beneficial phasing of La Niña and MJO conditions together with multi scale interactions enhances tropospheric forcing for wavenumber 2-induced zonal mean eddy heat flux in the lower stratosphere.
Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States
McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.
2010-01-01
Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.
Warm partner contact is related to lower cardiovascular reactivity.
Grewen, Karen M; Anderson, Bobbi J; Girdler, Susan S; Light, Kathleen C
2003-01-01
The authors investigated the relationship between brief warm social and physical contact among cohabitating couples and blood pressure (BP) reactivity to stress in a sample of healthy adults (66 African American, 117 Caucasian; 74 women, 109 men). Prior to stress, the warm contact group underwent a 10-minute period of handholding while viewing a romantic video. Followed by a 20-second hug with their partner, while the no contact group rested quietly for 10 minutes and 20 seconds. In response to a public speaking task, individuals receiving prestress partner contact demonstrated lower systolic BP diastolic BP, and heart rate increases compared with the no contact group. The effects of warm contact were comparable for men and women and were greater for African Americans compared with Caucasians. These findings suggest that affectionate relationships with a supportive partner may contribute to lower reactivity to stressful life events and may partially mediate the benefit of marital support on better cardiovascular health.
The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes
Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.
2011-01-01
Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chao, Yi; Farrara, John D.; Bjorkstedt, Eric; Chai, Fei; Chavez, Francisco; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Enright, Wendy; Fisher, Jennifer L.; Peterson, William T.; Welch, Gregory F.; Davis, Curtiss O.; Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.; Zhang, Hongchun; Zhang, Yinglong; Ateljevich, Eli
2017-09-01
During 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted into 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and determine its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 m of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0-100 m) temperature variability in the extratropical eastern Pacific. Observations suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west while later indicating a warming influence that propagated from south to north into the region associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0-100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supported the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured-grid numerical model simulation suggested that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originated in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagated through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raises the possibility that such warming events may be predictable many months or even several seasons in advance.
Elevated CO2 further lengthens growing season under warming conditions.
Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; Trlica, M J; McMaster, Gregory S; Andales, Allan A; LeCain, Dan R; Morgan, Jack A
2014-06-12
Observations of a longer growing season through earlier plant growth in temperate to polar regions have been thought to be a response to climate warming. However, data from experimental warming studies indicate that many species that initiate leaf growth and flowering earlier also reach seed maturation and senesce earlier, shortening their active and reproductive periods. A conceptual model to explain this apparent contradiction, and an analysis of the effect of elevated CO2--which can delay annual life cycle events--on changing season length, have not been tested. Here we show that experimental warming in a temperate grassland led to a longer growing season through earlier leaf emergence by the first species to leaf, often a grass, and constant or delayed senescence by other species that were the last to senesce, supporting the conceptual model. Elevated CO2 further extended growing, but not reproductive, season length in the warmed grassland by conserving water, which enabled most species to remain active longer. Our results suggest that a longer growing season, especially in years or biomes where water is a limiting factor, is not due to warming alone, but also to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations that extend the active period of plant annual life cycles.
Intraseasonal sea surface warming in the western Indian Ocean by oceanic equatorial Rossby waves
2017-05-09
using observational and reanalysis products , respectively. In the heat budget, horizontal advection is the leading contributor to warming, in part due to...warming and cooling in these studies . SST is observed to maximize just ahead of MJO convection. After convection begins, SST rapidly cools and reaches a...minimum ~5 days later. However, several studies have observed a certain class of MJO events that deviate from the previously observed relationship of
Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, James; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian J.; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E.
2012-01-01
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
Warming Experiments Underpredict Plant Phenological Responses to Climate Change
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wolkovich, E. M.; Cook, B. I.; Allen, J. M.; Crimmins, T. M.; Betancourt, J. L.; Travers, S. E.; Pau, S.; Regetz, J.; Davies, T. J.; Kraft, N. J. B.;
2012-01-01
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B
2015-06-01
Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?
Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue
2017-03-11
Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.
Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World's Coral Reefs 1985-2012.
Heron, Scott F; Maynard, Jeffrey A; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C Mark
2016-12-06
Coral reefs across the world's oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world's reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the 'winter' reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.
Is "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" A Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoerling, M. P.; Sun, L.; Perlwitz, J.
2015-12-01
Cold winters and cold waves have recently occurred in Europe, central Asia and the Midwest to eastern United States, even as global mean temperatures set record highs and Arctic amplification of surface warming continued. Since 1979, Central Asia winter temperatures have in fact declined. Conjecture has it that more cold extremes over the mid-latitude continents should occur due to global warming and the impacts of Arctic sea ice loss. A Northern Hemisphere temperature signal termed the "Warm Arctic, Cold Continent" pattern has thus been surmised. Here we use a multi-model approach to test the hypothesis that such a pattern is indeed symptomatic of climate change. Diagnosis of a large model ensemble of historical climate simulations shows some individual realizations to yield cooling trends over Central Asia, but importantly the vast majority show warming. The observed cooling has thus likely been a low probability state of internal variability, not a fingerprint of forced climate change. We show that daily temperature variations over continents decline in winter due to global warming, and cold waves become less likely. This is partly related to diminution of Arctic cold air reservoirs due to warming-induced sea ice loss. Nonetheless, we find some evidence and present a physical basis that Arctic sea ice loss alone can induce a winter cooling over Central Asia, though with a magnitude that is appreciably smaller than the overall radiative-forced warming signal. Our results support the argument that recent cooling trends over central Asia, and cold extreme events over the winter continents, have principally resulted from atmospheric internal variability and have been neither a forced response to Arctic seas ice loss nor a symptom of global warming. The paradigm of climate change is thus better expressed as "Warm Arctic, Warm Continent" for the NH winter.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Du, X.; Peterson, W. T.
2018-02-01
Coastal waters of the Northern California Current experienced "normal" ocean conditions in 2011-2012, weak upwelling in 2013-2014, then suddenly warmed in September 2014. The response of phytoplankton community structure to contrasting ocean conditions was determined from samples collected off Newport, Oregon. Cluster analysis identified three prominent phytoplankton community types: one that occurred during the upwelling season characterized by the highest abundance and diversity of diatoms, a preupwelling/relaxation community characterized by lower abundance, lowest diversity of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and another one associated with the warm anomalies from September 2014 through 2015 with reduced diatom abundance and diversity but the highest dinoflagellate diversity. The changes of diatom and dinoflagellate community were correlated with local factors (silicate, silicate: nitrate ratios, temperature, and salinity), and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Daithi Stone,
2014-01-01
While the SST trend mode has resulted in large SST increases that appear associated with an equatorial precipitation dipole response contrasting increases over the western Pacific and decreases over the central Pacific, the location of most of this warming is to the west of the key sensitivity areas identified in our CMIP5 composite. Removing this warming did not increase the CAM5 precipitation over California in a statistically significant manner, thus there appears to be little evidence that this long term warming trend contributed substantially to the 2013 and 2014 drought events. This result appears consistent with the lack of a long term downward trend in California precipitation. California precipitation does appear to be sensitive to north Pacific SST, and climate change models indicate substantial warming. If SST events like the unprecedented 2014 north Pacific SST anomaly become more common, California could also experience more frequent droughts. In addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in California, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability.
Jiménez-Muñoz, Juan C.; Mattar, Cristian; Barichivich, Jonathan; Santamaría-Artigas, Andrés; Takahashi, Ken; Malhi, Yadvinder; Sobrino, José A.; Schrier, Gerard van der
2016-01-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of interannual climate extremes in Amazonia and other tropical regions. The current 2015/2016 EN event was expected to be as strong as the EN of the century in 1997/98, with extreme heat and drought over most of Amazonian rainforests. Here we show that this protracted EN event, combined with the regional warming trend, was associated with unprecedented warming and a larger extent of extreme drought in Amazonia compared to the earlier strong EN events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. Typical EN-like drought conditions were observed only in eastern Amazonia, whilst in western Amazonia there was an unusual wetting. We attribute this wet-dry dipole to the location of the maximum sea surface warming on the Central equatorial Pacific. The impacts of this climate extreme on the rainforest ecosystems remain to be documented and are likely to be different to previous strong EN events. PMID:27604976
King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.
Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon
2008-02-19
Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clarke, Harry; D'Olivo, Juan Pablo; Falter, James; Zinke, Jens; Lowe, Ryan; McCulloch, Malcolm
2017-05-01
During the summer of 2010/2011, a regional marine heat wave resulted in coral bleaching of variable severity along much of the western coastline of Australia. At Ningaloo Reef, a 300 km long fringing reef system and World Heritage site, highly contrasting coral bleaching was observed between two morphologically distinct nearshore reef communities located on either side of the Ningaloo Peninsula: Tantabiddi (˜20% bleaching) and Bundegi (˜90% bleaching). For this study, we collected coral cores (Porites sp.) from Tantabiddi and Bundegi reef sites to assess the response of the Sr/Ca temperature proxy and Mg/Ca ratios to the variable levels of thermal stress imposed at these two sites during the 2010/2011 warming event. We found that there was an anomalous increase in Sr/Ca and decrease in Mg/Ca ratios in the Bundegi record that was coincident with the timing of severe coral bleaching at the site, while no significant changes were observed in the Tantabiddi record. We show that the change in the relationship of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios with temperature at Bundegi during the 2010/2011 event reflects changes in related coral "vital" processes during periods of environmental stress. These changes were found to be consistent with a reduction in active transport of Ca2+ to the site of calcification leading to a reduction in calcification rates and reduced Rayleigh fractionation of incorporated trace elements.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun
2018-02-01
We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.
The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less
Warm tropical ocean surface and global anoxia during the mid-Cretaceous period.
Wilson, P A; Norris, R D
2001-07-26
The middle of the Cretaceous period (about 120 to 80 Myr ago) was a time of unusually warm polar temperatures, repeated reef-drowning in the tropics and a series of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) that promoted both the widespread deposition of organic-carbon-rich marine sediments and high biological turnover. The cause of the warm temperatures is unproven but widely attributed to high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. In contrast, there is no consensus on the climatic causes and effects of the OAEs, with both high biological productivity and ocean 'stagnation' being invoked as the cause of ocean anoxia. Here we show, using stable isotope records from multiple species of well-preserved foraminifera, that the thermal structure of surface waters in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean underwent pronounced variability about 100 Myr ago, with maximum sea surface temperatures 3-5 degrees C warmer than today. This variability culminated in a collapse of upper-ocean stratification during OAE-1d (the 'Breistroffer' event), a globally significant period of organic-carbon burial that we show to have fundamental, stratigraphically valuable, geochemical similarities to the main OAEs of the Mesozoic era. Our records are consistent with greenhouse forcing being responsible for the warm temperatures, but are inconsistent both with explanations for OAEs based on ocean stagnation, and with the traditional view (reviewed in ref. 12) that past warm periods were more stable than today's climate.
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought.
Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F; Fisher, Joshua B; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Richardson, Andrew D; Scott, Russell L; Law, Beverly E; Litvak, Marcy E; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Peters, Wouter; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T
2016-05-24
The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought
Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; Richardson, Andrew D.; Scott, Russell L.; Law, Beverly E.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.; Peters, Wouter
2016-01-01
The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks. PMID:27114518
Warm spring reduced carbon cycle impact of the 2012 US summer drought
Wolf, Sebastian; Keenan, Trevor F.; Fisher, Joshua B.; ...
2016-04-25
The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world's fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here in this paper, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inversemore » modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphereatmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012. We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks.« less
Tennankore, Karthik K; Kim, S Joseph; Alwayn, Ian P J; Kiberd, Bryce A
2016-03-01
Warm ischemia time is a potentially modifiable insult to transplanted kidneys, but little is known about its effect on long-term outcomes. Here we conducted a study of United States kidney transplant recipients (years 2000-2013) to determine the association between warm ischemia time (the time from organ removal from cold storage to reperfusion with warm blood) and death/graft failure. Times under 10 minutes were potentially attributed to coding error. Therefore, the 10-to-under-20-minute interval was chosen as the reference group. The primary outcome was mortality and graft failure (return to chronic dialysis or preemptive retransplantation) adjusted for recipient, donor, immunologic, and surgical factors. The study included 131,677 patients with 35,901 events. Relative to the reference patients, times of 10 to under 20, 20 to under 30, 30 to under 40, 40 to under 50, 50 to under 60, and 60 and more minutes were associated with hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.15), 1.13 (1.06-1.22), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), 1.20 (1.12-1.30), and 1.23 (1.15-1.33) for the composite event, respectively. Association between prolonged warm ischemia time and death/graft failure persisted after stratification by donor type (living vs. deceased donor) and delayed graft function status. Thus, warm ischemia time is associated with adverse long-term patient and graft survival after kidney transplantation. Identifying strategies to reduce warm ischemia time is an important consideration for future study. Copyright © 2015 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Y. D.; Wignall, P. B.; Joachimski, M. M.; Bond, D. P. G.; Grasby, S. E.; Lai, X. L.; Wang, L. N.; Zhang, Z. T.; Sun, S.
2016-06-01
The Carnian Humid Episode (CHE), also known as the Carnian Pluvial Event, and associated biotic changes are major enigmas of the Mesozoic record in western Tethys. We show that the CHE also occurred in eastern Tethys (South China), suggestive of a much more widespread and probably global climate perturbation. Oxygen isotope records from conodont apatite indicate a double-pulse warming event. The CHE coincided with an initial warming of 4 °C. This was followed by a transient cooling period and then a prolonged ∼7 °C warming in the later Carnian (Tuvalian 2). Carbon isotope perturbations associated with the CHE of western Tethys occurred contemporaneously in South China, and mark the start of a prolonged period of carbon cycle instability that persisted until the late Carnian. The dry-wet transition during the CHE coincides with the negative carbon isotope excursion and the temperature rise, pointing to an intensification of hydrologic cycle activities due to climatic warming. While carbonate platform shutdown in western Tethys is associated with an influx of siliciclastic sediment, the eastern Tethyan carbonate platforms are overlain by deep-water anoxic facies. The transition from oxygenated to euxinic facies was via a condensed, manganiferous carbonate (MnO content up to 15.1 wt%), that records an intense Mn shuttle operating in the basin. Significant siliciclastic influx in South China only occurred after the CHE climatic changes and was probably due to foreland basin development at the onset of the Indosinian Orogeny. The mid-Carnian biotic crisis thus coincided with several phenomena associated with major extinction events: a carbonate production crisis, climate warming, δ13 C oscillations, marine anoxia, biotic turnover and flood basalt eruptions (of the Wrangellia Large Igneous Province).
Warming of intravenous and irrigation fluids for preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia.
Campbell, Gillian; Alderson, Phil; Smith, Andrew F; Warttig, Sheryl
2015-04-13
Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (a drop in core temperature to below 36°C) occurs because of interference with normal temperature regulation by anaesthetic drugs, exposure of skin for prolonged periods and receipt of large volumes of intravenous and irrigation fluids. If the temperature of these fluids is below core body temperature, they can cause significant heat loss. Warming intravenous and irrigation fluids to core body temperature or above might prevent some of this heat loss and subsequent hypothermia. To estimate the effectiveness of preoperative or intraoperative warming, or both, of intravenous and irrigation fluids in preventing perioperative hypothermia and its complications during surgery in adults. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2014, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid SP (1956 to 4 February 2014), EMBASE Ovid SP (1982 to 4 February 2014), the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (1950 to 4 February 2014), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) EBSCOhost (1980 to 4 February 2014) and reference lists of identified articles. We also searched the Current Controlled Trials website and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials or quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing fluid warming methods versus standard care or versus other warming methods used to maintain normothermia. Two review authors independently extracted data from eligible trials and settled disputes with a third review author. We contacted study authors to ask for additional details when needed. We collected data on adverse events only if they were reported in the trials. We included in this review 24 studies with a total of 1250 participants. The trials included various numbers and types of participants. Investigators used a range of methods to warm fluids to temperatures between 37°C and 41°C. We found that evidence was of moderate quality because descriptions of trial design were
Characterizing the Disk of a Recent Massive Collisional Event
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Song, Inseok
2015-10-01
Debris disks play a key role in the formation and evolution of planetary systems. On rare occasions, circumstellar material appears as strictly warm infrared excess in regions of expected terrestrial planet formation and so present an interesting opportunity for the study of terrestrial planetary regions. There are only a few known cases of extreme, warm, dusty disks which lack any colder outer component including BD+20 307, HD 172555, EF Cha, and HD 23514. We have recently found a new system TYC 8830-410-1 belonging to this rare group. Warm dust grains are extremely short-lived, and the extraordinary amount of warm dust near these stars can only be plausibly explainable by a recent (or on-going) massive transient event such as the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) or plantary collisions. LHB-like events are seen generally in a system with a dominant cold disk, however, warm dust only systems show no hint of a massive cold disk. Planetary collisions leave a telltale sign of strange mid-IR spectral feature such as silica and we want to fully characterize the spectral shape of the newly found system with SOFIA/FORCAST. With SOFIA/FORCAST, we propose to obtain two narrow band photometric measurements between 6 and 9 microns. These FORCAST photometric measurements will constrain the amount and temperature of the warm disk in the system. There are less than a handful systems with a strong hint of recent planetary collisions. With the firmly constrained warm disk around TYC 8830-410-1, we will publish the discovery in a leading astronomical journal accompanied with a potential press release through SOFIA.
Warm-Up Exercises May Not Be So Important for Enhancing Submaximal Running Performance.
Takizawa, Kazuki; Yamaguchi, Taichi; Shibata, Keisuke
2018-05-01
Takizawa, K, Yamaguchi, T, and Shibata, K. Warm-up exercises may not be so important for enhancing submaximal running performance. J Strength Cond Res 32(5): 1383-1390, 2018-The purpose of this study was to determine an appropriate warm-up intensity for enhancing performance in submaximal running at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max (it assumes 3,000-5,000 m in track events). Seven trained male university athletes took part in this study (age: 21.3 ± 2.1 years, height: 169.3 ± 4.7 cm, body mass: 58.4 ± 5.6 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 73.33 ± 5.46 ml·kg·min). Each subject ran on a treadmill at 90% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max until exhaustion after 1 of 4 warm-up treatments. The 4 warm-up treatments were no warm-up, 15 minutes running at 60% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, at 70% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max, and at 80% vV[Combining Dot Above]O2max. The running performance was evaluated by time to exhaustion (TTE). V[Combining Dot Above]O2, and vastus lateralis muscle temperature were also measured. There were no significant differences in TTE among the warm-up exercises (p > 0.05). V[Combining Dot Above]O2 in no warm-up showed slower reaction than the other warm-up exercises. Regarding, the vastus lateralis muscle temperature immediately after warm-up, no warm-up was significantly (p < 0.01) lower compared with the other warm-up exercises. Our results suggested that submaximal running performance was not affected by the presence or absence of a warm-up or by warm-up intensity, although physiological changes occurred.
A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.
2012-01-01
Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.
Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stone, G. T.
2006-12-01
The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of
Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.
Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S
2013-02-01
Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important
Eastern Tropical Pacific Precipitation Response to Zonal SPCZ events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Durán-Quesada, A. M.; Lintner, B. R.
2014-12-01
Extreme El Niño events and warming conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific have been linked to pronounced spatial displacements of the South Pacific Convergence Zone known as "zonal SPCZ" events.. Using a global dataset of Lagrangian back trajectories computed with the FLEXPART model for the period 1980-2013, comprehensive analysis of the 3D circulation characteristics associated with the SPCZ is undertaken. Ten days history of along-trajectory specific humidity, potential vorticity and temperature are reconstructed for zonal SPCZ events as well as other states,, with differences related to El Niño intensity and development stage as well as the state of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. How zonal events influence precipitation over the Eastern Tropical Pacific is examined using back trajectories, reanalysis, TRMM precipitation, and additional satellite derived cloud information. It is found that SPCZ displacements are associated with enhanced convection over the Eastern Tropical Pacific in good agreement with prior work. The connection between intensification of precipitation over the eastern Tropical Pacific during zonal events and suppression of rainfall over the Maritime continent is also described.
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.
2018-04-01
Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.
2014-01-01
Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions
The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus
Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn
2015-01-01
Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024
The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.
Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn
2015-11-16
Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van Soelen, Elsbeth E.; Twitchett, Richard J.; Kürschner, Wolfram M.
2018-04-01
explained by increased run-off. High amounts of both terrestrial and marine organic fragments in the first anoxic layers suggest that high run-off, increased nutrient availability, possibly in combination with soil erosion, are responsible for the development of anoxia in the basin. Enhanced run-off could result from changes in the hydrological cycle during the late Permian extinction event, which is a likely consequence of global warming. In addition, vegetation destruction and soil erosion may also have resulted in enhanced run-off. Salinity stratification could potentially explain the development of anoxia in other shallow marine sites. The input of freshwater and related changes in coastal salinity could also have implications for the interpretation of oxygen isotope records and seawater temperature reconstructions at some sites.
Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark
2016-12-01
Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.
Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.
Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang
2015-09-23
The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Musselman, Keith N.; Molotch, Noah P.; Margulis, Steven A.
2017-12-01
In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (-10 % °C-1) consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles) to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.
Persistence of carbon release events through the peak of early Eocene global warmth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kirtland Turner, Sandra; Sexton, Philip F.; Charles, Christopher D.; Norris, Richard D.
2014-10-01
The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (53-50 million years ago) was preceded by approximately six million years of progressive global warming. This warming was punctuated by a series of rapid hyperthermal warming events triggered by the release of greenhouse gases. Over these six million years, the carbon isotope record suggests that the events became more frequent but smaller in magnitude. This pattern has been suggested to reflect a thermodynamic threshold for carbon release that was more easily crossed as global temperature rose, combined with a decrease in the size of carbon reservoirs during extremely warm conditions. Here we present a continuous, 4.25-million-year-long record of the stable isotope composition of carbonate sediments from the equatorial Atlantic, spanning the peak of early Eocene global warmth. A composite of this and pre-existing records shows that the carbon isotope excursions that identify the hyperthermals exhibit continuity in magnitude and frequency throughout the approximately 10-million-year period covering the onset, peak and termination of the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. We suggest that the carbon cycle processes behind these events, excluding the largest event, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 56 million years ago), were not exceptional. Instead, we argue that the hyperthermals may reflect orbital forcing of the carbon cycle analogous to the mechanisms proposed to operate in the cooler Oligocene and Miocene.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Lester, Mark
2018-06-01
The inter-annual variability, climatological mean wind and tide fields in the northern polar mesosphere/lower thermosphere region of 82-98 km height are studied using observations by the meteor radar which has operated continuously during solar cycle 24 (from December 2008 onward) at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67N, 26E). Summer mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow, up to 25 m/s, at lower heights and eastward flow, up to 30 m/s, at upper heights. In the winter an eastward flow, up to 10 m/s, dominates at all heights. The meridional winds are characterized by a relatively weak poleward flow (few m/s) in the winter and equatorward flow in the summer, with a jet core (∼15 m/s) located slightly below 90 km. These systematically varying winds are dominated by the semidiurnal tides. The largest amplitudes, up to 30 m/s, are observed at higher altitudes in winter and a secondary maximum is seen in August-September. The diurnal tides are almost a factor of two weaker and peak in summer. The variability of individual years is dominated by the winter perturbations. During the period of observations major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred in January 2009 and 2013. During these events the wind fields were strongly modified. The lowest altitude eastward winds maximized up to 25 m/s, that is by more twice that of the non-SSW years. The poleward flow considerably increases (up 10 m/s) and extends from the lower heights throughout the whole altitude range. The annual pattern in temperature at ∼90 km height over Sodankyla consists of warm winters (up to 200 K) and cold summers (∼120 K).
ENSO events in the northern Gulf of Alaska, and effects on selected marine fisheries
Bailey, K.M.; Macklin, S.A.; Reed, R.K.; Brodeur, R.D.; Ingraham, W.J.; Piatt, John F.; Shima, M.; Francis, R.C.; Anderson, P.J.; Royer, T.C.; Hollowed, A.; Somerton, D.A.; Wooster, W.S.
1995-01-01
The 1991-93 El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event first appeared in the northern Gulf of Alaska in autumn 1991 with warm sea-surface temperatures. In winter 1992, there were pulses of increased sea level and anomalous circulation. El Nino conditions persisted at least through summer 1993. The effects of this ENSO event on major groundfish species and Pacific herring in the northern Gulf of Alaska were examined and compared with the effects of previous ENSO events. There is little evidence that the 1991-93 or 1982-83 ENSO events affected landings of walleye pollock, Pacific cod, Pacific halibut, or arrowtooth flounder. Some changes in distribution of groundfish species were observed in 1993, but the effect was similar to changes observed in non-ENSO warm years. In general, warm ocean conditions have a positive effect on recruitment of northern stocks, but ENSO events appear to have an inconsistent effect on year-class strength within species and among different species. For example, strong year classes of halibut and arrowtooth flounder sometimes, but not always, coincide with ENSO events; ENSO events are associated with moderate to weak year classes of cod and pollock. However, post-ENSO warm years often are associated with strong recruitment of many groundfish species. Major changes have occurred in the Gulf of Alaska ecosystem since 1977. The influence of the 1976 ENSO event in precipitating these changes and the role of the frequency or strength of subsequent El Nino events is presently unknown. Herring and other stocks of small pelagic fishes may be more affected by ENSO events. In particular, decreased catches, recruitment, and weight-at-age of herring are sometimes associated with ENSO events. Furthermore, a variety of seabirds which feed mostly on pelagic forage fishes or the pelagic juvenile stages of groundfish suffered widespread mortalities and breeding failures in the Gulf of Alaska during the ENSO years of 1983 and 1993. These effects on seabirds
Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.
Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa
2011-04-01
Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.
Sea Surface Warming and Increased Aridity at Mid-latitudes during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harper, D. T.; Zeebe, R. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Schrader, C.; Lourens, L. J.; Zachos, J. C.
2017-12-01
Early Eocene hyperthermals, i.e. abrupt global warming events characterized by the release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere, can provide insight into the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system and hydrologic cycle to carbon emissions. Indeed, the largest Eocene hyperthermal, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), has provided one case study of extreme and abrupt global warming, with a mass of carbon release roughly equivalent to total modern fossil fuel reserves and a release rate 1/10 that of modern. Global sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by 5-8°C during the PETM and extensive evidence from marine and terrestrial records indicates significant shifts in the hydrologic cycle consistent with an increase in poleward moisture transport in response to surface warming. The second largest Eocene hyperthermal, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2) provides an additional calibration point for determining the sensitivity of climate and the hydrologic cycle to massive carbon release. Marine carbon isotope excursions (CIE) and warming at the ETM-2 were roughly half as large as at the PETM, but reliable evidence for shifts in temperature and the hydrologic cycle are sparse for the ETM-2. Here, we utilize coupled planktic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca to determine ΔSST and ΔSSS (changes in sea surface temperature and salinity) for ETM-2 at ODP Sites 1209 (28°N paleolatitude in the Pacific) and 1265 (42°S paleolatitude in the S. Atlantic), accounting for potential pH influence on the two proxies by using LOSCAR climate-carbon cycle simulated ΔpH. Our results indicate a warming of 2-4°C at both mid-latitude sites and an increase in SSS of 1-3ppt, consistent with simulations of early Paleogene hydroclimate that suggest an increase in low- to mid-latitude aridity due to an intensification of moisture transport to high-latitudes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the CIE and warming for ETM-2 scales with the CIE and warming for the PETM, suggesting that
Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.
2018-04-01
This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.
Nasiri, Ahmad; Akbari, Ayob; Sharifzade, GholamReza; Derakhshan, Pooya
2015-01-01
Background: Shivering is a common complication of general and epidural anesthesia. Warming methods and many drugs are used for control of shivering in the recovery room. The present study is a randomized clinical trial aimed to investigate the effects of two interventions in comparison with pethidine which is the routine treatment on shivering in patients undergoing abdominal surgery with general anesthesia. Materials and Methods: Eighty-seven patients undergoing abdominal surgery by general anesthesia were randomly assigned to three groups (two intervention groups in comparison with pethidine as routine). Patients in warmed intravenous fluids group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C), patients in combined warming group received pre-warmed Ringer serum (38°C) accompanied by humid-warm oxygen, and patients in pethidine group received intravenous pethidine routinely. The elapsed time of shivering and some hemodynamic parameters of the participants were assessed for 20 min postoperatively in the recovery room. Then the collected data were analyzed by software SPSS (v. 16) with the significance level being P < 0.05. Results: The mean of elapsed time in the warmed intravenous serum group, the combined warming group, and the pethidine group were 7 (1.5) min, 6 (1.5) min, and 2.8 (0.7) min, respectively, which was statistically significant (P < 0.05). The body temperatures in both combined warming and pethidine groups were increased significantly (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Combined warming can be effective in controlling postoperative shivering and body temperature increase. PMID:26793258
The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly in the Southern California Current - Physical and Biological Responses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ralf, G.
2016-02-01
The 2014/15 Warm Anomaly (WarmA) off Southern California manifested itself in the summer of 2014 as an anomalously warm surface layer in the Southern Calif. Bight with low concentrations of Chl a. This layer intensified in spatial extent, covering the entire CalCOFI surface area by the winter of 2015 with temperature anomalies 3 StDev larger than long-term averages. Concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton biomass and rates of primary production were extremely low during the WarmA. The evolution of the WarmA as well as the 2015/16 El Niño with time will be compared to the evolution of the weak and strong El Niño's observed over the last 60 years. These events provide unique insights in the controls of phytoplankton biomass and production in the southern California Current System. Preliminary analyses suggest that the response of the phytoplankton community to the WarmA was consistent with responses to similar forcing during the prior decade. This presentation is based on data collected during the quarterly CalCOFI cruises by the CalCOFI and the CCE-LTER groups.
Increased frequency of ENSO-related hydroclimate extremes in a warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Q.; Miao, C.; AghaKouchak, A.
2017-12-01
Global warming will likely alter surface warming in tropical Pacific regions, leading to changes in the characteristics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) characteristics and an incresed frequency of extreme ENSO events. The ENSO-related climatic variation and associated impacts will likely be modified in a warmer climatic state. However, little is known about the effect of changes in ENSO teleconnections with regard to future dry and wet conditions over land around the globe, especially outside tropical regions. We used the model simulations of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for different twenty-first-century emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to investigate the changes in the ENSO' teleconnection on dry/wet condition over global land. Our results show that 64.64% and 38.12% of 181 river basins studied are expected to experience an increase in the frequency of unusually wet/dry events forced by both ENSO phases under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The anomalous precipitation variability forced by ENSO events will be intensified through a "wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier" mechanism over west North America, South America, central Asia, and west Asia. More than 850 million people are at risk of exposure to unusually dry/wet events. There is a potential increased risk of high-intensity dry/wet events, with an increase/decrease in the 50-year return level of SPI value for drying/wetting regions. These results have important implications for disaster evaluation and related policies and for appropriate engineering design.
An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lupo, Kevin
2012-01-01
Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.
Warm-adapted microbial communities enhance their carbon-use efficiency in warmed soils
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita
2017-04-01
Ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon (C), resulting in a positive feedback to increasing temperatures. The current generation of models assume that the temperature sensitivities of microbial processes do not respond to warming. However, recent studies have suggested that the ability of microbial communities to adapt to warming can lead both strengthened and weakened feedbacks. A further complication is that the balance between microbial C used for growth to that used for respiration - the microbial carbon-use efficiency (CUE) - also has been shown through both modelling and empirical study to respond to warming. In our study, we set out to assess how chronic warming (+5°C over ambient during 9 years) of a temperate hardwood forest floor (Harvard Forest LTER, USA) affected temperature sensitivities of microbial processes in soil. To do this, we first determined the temperature relationships for bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in plots exposed to warmed or ambient conditions. Secondly, we parametrised the established temperature functions microbial growth and respiration with plot-specific measured soil temperature data at a hourly time-resolution over the course of 3 years to estimate the real-time variation of in situ microbial C production and respiration. To estimate the microbial CUE, we also divided the microbial C production with the sum of microbial C production and respiration as a proxy for substrate use. We found that warm-adapted bacterial and fungal communities both shifted their temperature relationships to grow at higher rates in warm conditions which coincided with reduced rates at cool conditions. As such, their optimal temperature (Topt), minimum temperature (Tmin) and temperature sensitivity (Q10) were all increased. The temperature relationship for temperature, in contrast, was only marginally shifted in the same direction, but at a much smaller effect size, with
Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle
Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Farmer, J.; Bauch, H.A.; Spielhagen, R.F.; Jakobsson, M.; Nilsson, J.; Briggs, W.M.; Stepanova, A.
2012-01-01
In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear. Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 kyr ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 m was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2 °C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval. We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming.
Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records.
Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong
2013-02-05
The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07-0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend.
Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records
Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong
2013-01-01
The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend. PMID:23345448
Ice dynamics of Heinrich events: Insights and implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.
2017-12-01
Physical understanding of ice flow provides important constraints on Heinrich (H) events, which in turn provide lessons for ice dynamics and future sea-level change. Iceberg-rafted debris (IRD), the defining feature of H events, is a complex indicator; however, in cold climates with extensive marine-ending ice, increased IRD flux records ice-shelf loss. Ice shelves fed primarily by inflow from grounded ice experience net basal melting, giving sub-ice-sedimentation rather than open-ocean IRD. Ice-shelf loss has been observed recently in response to atmospheric warming increasing surface meltwater that wedged open crevasses (Larsen B), but also by break-off following thinning from warming of waters reaching the grounding line (Jakobshavn). The H events consistently occurred during cold times resulting from reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation ("conveyor"), but as argued by Marcott et al. (PNAS 2011), this was accompanied by delayed warming at grounding-line depths of the Hudson Strait ice stream, the source of the Heinrich layers, implicating oceanic control. As shown in a rich literature, additional considerations involving thermal state of the ice-stream bed, isostasy and probably other processes influenced why some reduced-conveyor events triggered H-events while others did not. Ice shelves, including the inferred Hudson Strait ice shelf, typically exist in high-salinity, cold waters produced by brine rejection from sea-ice formation, which are the coldest abundant waters in the world ocean. Thus, almost any change in air or ocean temperature, winds or currents can remove ice shelves, because "replacement" water masses are typically warmer. And, because ice shelves almost invariably slow flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, climatic perturbations to regions with ice shelves typically lead to sea-level rise, with important implications.
Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stein, K.; McGregor, S.; Schneider, N.; England, M. H.; Lengaigne, M.; Cai, W.
2012-12-01
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to Southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modeling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. A multi-model ensemble average of 21st century climate change projections from the current-generation of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) suggests a slightly wetter Southwest Pacific; however, inter-model uncertainty is greater than projected rainfall changes in the SPCZ region. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in the Southwest Pacific can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall while weaker SST gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward (see illustration) and promote summer drying in areas of the Southwest Pacific, similar to the response to strong El Niño events. Based on a multi-model ensemble of 55 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 2-3°C we estimate a 5% decrease of SPCZ rainfall, although uncertainty exceeds ±30% among CGCMs. For stronger tropical warming, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.; Illustration of the "warmest gets wetter" response to projected 21st century greenhouse warming. Green shading depicts observed (1982-2009) rainfall during DJF (contour interval: 2 mm/day; starting at 1 mm/day). Blue (red) contours depict warming less (more) than the tropical mean (42.5°N/S) 21st century multi-model trend (contour interval: 0.2°C; starting at ±0.1°C).
Observations of Pronounced Greenland Ice Sheet Firn Warming and Implications for Runoff Production
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Polashenski, Chris; Courville, Zoe; Benson, Carl; Wagner, Anna; Chen, Justin; Wong, Gifford; Hawley, Robert; Hall, Dorothy
2014-01-01
Field measurements of shallow borehole temperatures in firn across the northern Greenland ice sheet are collected during May 2013. Sites first measured in 19521955 are revisited, showing long-term trends in firn temperature. Results indicate a pattern of substantial firn warming (up to +5.7C) at midlevel elevations (1400-2500 m) and little temperature change at high elevations (2500 m). We find that latent heat transport into the firn due to meltwater percolation drives the observed warming. Modeling shows that heat is stored at depth for several years, and energy delivered from consecutive melt events accumulates in the firn. The observed warming is likely not yet in equilibrium with recent melt production rates but captures the progression of sites in the percolation facies toward net runoff production.
Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.
Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S
2012-02-28
Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.
Climate variability and dengue fever in warm and humid Mexico.
Colón-González, Felipe J; Lake, Iain R; Bentham, Graham
2011-05-01
Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein
2014-11-01
One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.
Warm up I: potential mechanisms and the effects of passive warm up on exercise performance.
Bishop, David
2003-01-01
Despite limited scientific evidence supporting their effectiveness, warm-up routines prior to exercise are a well-accepted practice. The majority of the effects of warm up have been attributed to temperature-related mechanisms (e.g. decreased stiffness, increased nerve-conduction rate, altered force-velocity relationship, increased anaerobic energy provision and increased thermoregulatory strain), although non-temperature-related mechanisms have also been proposed (e.g. effects of acidaemia, elevation of baseline oxygen consumption (.VO(2)) and increased postactivation potentiation). It has also been hypothesised that warm up may have a number of psychological effects (e.g. increased preparedness). Warm-up techniques can be broadly classified into two major categories: passive warm up or active warm up. Passive warm up involves raising muscle or core temperature by some external means, while active warm up utilises exercise. Passive heating allows one to obtain the increase in muscle or core temperature achieved by active warm up without depleting energy substrates. Passive warm up, although not practical for most athletes, also allows one to test the hypothesis that many of the performance changes associated with active warm up can be largely attributed to temperature-related mechanisms.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Jiangtao; Lowe, Ryan J.; Ivey, Gregory N.; Jones, Nicole L.; Zhang, Zhenling
2018-02-01
Two marine heat wave events along Western Australia (WA) during the alternate austral summer periods of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, both linked to La Niña conditions, severely impacted marine ecosystems over more than 12° of latitude, which included the unprecedented bleaching of many coral reefs. Although these two heat waves were forced by similar large-scale climate drivers, the warming patterns differed substantially between events. The central coast of WA (south of 22°S) experienced greater warming in 2010/2011, whereas the northwestern coast of WA experienced greater warming in 2012/2013. To investigate how oceanic and atmospheric heat exchange processes drove these different spatial patterns, an analysis of the ocean heat budget was conducted by integrating remote sensing observations, in situ mooring data, and a high-resolution (˜1 km) ocean circulation model (Regional Ocean Modeling System). The results revealed substantial spatial differences in the relative contributions made by heat advection and air-sea heat exchange between the two heat wave events. During 2010/2011, anomalous warming driven by heat advection was present throughout the region but was much stronger south of 22°S where the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current strengthens. During 2012/2013, air-sea heat exchange had a much more positive (warming) influence on sea surface temperatures (especially in the northwest), and when combined with a more positive contribution of heat advection in the north, this can explain the regional differences in warming between these two La Niña-associated marine heat wave events.
Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B
2014-11-03
Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration.
More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming.
Cai, Wenju; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Borlace, Simon; Collins, Matthew; Cowan, Tim; McPhaden, Michael J; Timmermann, Axel; Power, Scott; Brown, Josephine; Menkes, Christophe; Ngari, Arona; Vincent, Emmanuel M; Widlansky, Matthew J
2012-08-16
The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events--such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones--experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Niño events and southward during La Niña events. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing--by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator--and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure with commensurately severe weather impacts. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.
Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown
Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang
2015-01-01
The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551
Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.
2017-12-01
Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.
Current Warm-Up Practices and Contemporary Issues Faced by Elite Swimming Coaches.
McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Raglin, John S; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben
2016-12-01
McGowan, CJ, Pyne, DB, Raglin, JS, Thompson, KG, and Rattray, B. Current warm-up practices and contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches. J Strength Cond Res 30(12): 3471-3480, 2016-A better understanding of current swimming warm-up strategies is needed to improve their effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to describe current precompetition warm-up practices and identify contemporary issues faced by elite swimming coaches during competition. Forty-six state-international level swimming coaches provided information through a questionnaire on their prescription of volume, intensity, and recovery within their pool and dryland-based competition warm-ups, and challenges faced during the final stages of event preparation. Coaches identified four key objectives of the precompetition warm-up: physiological (elevate body temperature and increase muscle activation), kinesthetic (tactile preparation, increase "feel" of the water), tactical (race-pace rehearsal), and mental (improve focus, reduce anxiety). Pool warm-up volume ranged from ∼1300 to 2100 m, beginning with 400-1000 m of continuous, low-intensity (∼50-70% of perceived maximal exertion) swimming, followed by 200-600 m of stroke drills and 1-2 sets (100-400 m in length) of increasing intensity (∼60-90%) swimming, concluding with 3-4 race or near race-pace efforts (25-100 m; ∼90-100%) and 100-400 m easy swimming. Dryland-based warm-up exercises, involving stretch cords and skipping, were also commonly prescribed. Coaches preferred swimmers complete their warm-up 20-30 minutes before race start. Lengthy marshalling periods (15-20+ minutes) and the time required to don racing suits (>10 minutes) were identified as complicating issues. Coaches believed that the pool warm-up affords athletes the opportunity to gain a tactile feel for the water and surrounding pool environment. The combination of dryland-based activation exercises followed by pool-based warm-up routines seems to be the preferred
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.
2018-02-01
An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias
2018-01-01
Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow melt equivalent decreases flood events in this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating from internal climate variability, downscaling technique, and hydrologic model parameters, the contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.
2017-12-01
Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.
Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.
1992-10-01
One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Greer, Katelynn R.
The polar winter middle atmosphere is a dynamically active region that is driven primarily by wave activity. Planetary waves intermittently disturbed the region at different levels and the most spectacular type of disturbance is a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). However, other types of extreme disturbances occur on a more frequent, intraseasonal basis. One such disturbance is a synoptic-scale "weather event" observed in lidar and rocket soundings, soundings from the TIMED/SABER instrument and UK Meteorological Office (MetO) assimilated data. These disturbances are most easily identified near 42 km where temperatures are elevated over baseline conditions by a remarkable 50 K and an associated cooling is observed near 75 km. As these disturbances have a coupled vertical structure extending into the lower mesosphere, they are termed Upper Stratospheric/Lower Mesospheric (USLM) disturbances. This research begins with description of the phenomenology of USLM events in observations and the assimilated data set MetO, develops a description of the dynamics responsible for their development and places them in the context of the family of polar winter middle atmospheric disturbances. Climatologies indicates that USLM disturbances are commonly occurring polar wintertime disturbances of the middle atmosphere, have a remarkably repeating thermal structure, are located on the East side of the polar low and are related planetary wave activity. Using the same methodology for identifying USLM events and building climatologies of these events, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model WACCM version 4 is established to spontaneously and internally generate USLM disturbances. Planetary waves are seen to break at a level just above the stratopause and convergence of the EP-flux vector is occurring in this region, decelerating the eastward zonal-mean wind and inducing ageostrophic vertical motion to maintain mass continuity. The descending air increases the horizontal
Global warming benefits the small in aquatic ecosystems.
Daufresne, Martin; Lengfellner, Kathrin; Sommer, Ulrich
2009-08-04
Understanding the ecological impacts of climate change is a crucial challenge of the twenty-first century. There is a clear lack of general rules regarding the impacts of global warming on biota. Here, we present a metaanalysis of the effect of climate change on body size of ectothermic aquatic organisms (bacteria, phyto- and zooplankton, and fish) from the community to the individual level. Using long-term surveys, experimental data and published results, we show a significant increase in the proportion of small-sized species and young age classes and a decrease in size-at-age. These results are in accordance with the ecological rules dealing with the temperature-size relationships (i.e., Bergmann's rule, James' rule and Temperature-Size Rule). Our study provides evidence that reduced body size is the third universal ecological response to global warming in aquatic systems besides the shift of species ranges toward higher altitudes and latitudes and the seasonal shifts in life cycle events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shaffer, Gary; Fernández Villanueva, Esteban; Rondanelli, Roberto; Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Jens; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Huber, Matthew
2017-11-01
Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release
Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico
Colón-González, Felipe J.; Lake, Iain R.; Bentham, Graham
2011-01-01
Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Niño events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Niño and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems. PMID:21540386
North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers.
Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick
2013-12-05
Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet quadrupled over the past two decades, contributing a quarter of the observed global sea-level rise. Increased submarine melting is thought to have triggered the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers, which is partly responsible for the ice loss. However, the chain of events and physical processes remain elusive. Recent evidence suggests that an anomalous inflow of subtropical waters driven by atmospheric changes, multidecadal natural ocean variability and a long-term increase in the North Atlantic's upper ocean heat content since the 1950s all contributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic. This led, in conjunction with increased runoff, to enhanced submarine glacier melting. Future climate projections raise the potential for continued increases in warming and ice-mass loss, with implications for sea level and climate.
Ionospheric disturbances in Asian region of Russia during sudden stratospheric warmings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kurkin, Vladimir; Chernigovskaya, Marina; Medvedeva, Irina; Orlov, Igor
This paper presents an investigation of the subauroral and mid-latitude ionosphere variations in the Asian region of Russia during stratospheric warmings in 2008, 2009 and 2010. We used the data from network of vertical and oblique-incidence sounding ionosounders of ISTP SB RAS. Irkutsk chirp-sounder (vertical incidence sounding) run every 1 minute on 24-hour basis for 30 days in winter of 2008, 2009 and 2010 to study small-scale and medium-scale distur-bances. The experiments on the radio paths Magadan-Irkutsk, Khabarovsk-Irkutsk and Norilsk -Irkutsk were conducted in order to study large-scale ionospheric disturbances. The frequency range was from 4 to 30 MHz, the sweep rate used 500 kHz/sec. To identify the stratospheric warming events the Berlin Meteorological University data (http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de) on stratospheric warming at standard isobaric levels and the atmospheric temperature height profiles measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the EOS Aura spacecraft were used. The increase of wave activity in upper ionosphere over Asian region of Russia has recorded during stratospheric warmings. Spectrums of multi-scale variations were derived from the data obtained during the prolonged experiments. The analysis of experimental data has revealed the amplitudes of planetary waves in ionosphere during stratospheric warmings in 2008 and 2010 larger than ones in winter 2009 as opposed to amplitude variations of temperature in stratosphere. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 08-05-00658).
Davenport, Matthew S; Wang, Carolyn L; Bashir, Mustafa R; Neville, Amy M; Paulson, Erik K
2012-02-01
To retrospectively determine whether extrinsic warming of the low-osmolality contrast material iopamidol to 37°C prior to intravenous administration at computed tomography (CT) affects extravasation and allergic-like reaction rates. The need to obtain informed patient consent was waived for this HIPAA-compliant and institutional review board-approved analysis. All adverse events related to the intravenous administration of iopamidol during CT examinations occurring 200 days before (period 1) and 200 days after (period 2) the cessation of extrinsic contrast material warming (37°C) for intravenous injections of less than 6 mL/sec at Duke University Medical Center (Durham, NC) were retrospectively reviewed. Adverse event rates were compared by using χ2 statistics. There were 12,682 injections during period 1 (10,831 injections of iopamidol 300 and 1851 injections of iopamidol 370) and 12,138 injections (10, 064 injections of iopamidol 300 and 2074 injections of iopamidol 370) during period 2. Adverse event rates for iopamidol 300 were not affected by extrinsic warming (extravasation rates: 0.30% [32 of 10,831] in period 1 vs 0.23% [23 of 10,064] in period 2, P=.64; allergic-like reaction rates: 0.39% [42 of 10,831] in period 1 vs 0.46% [46 of 10,064] in period 2, P=.74; overall adverse events: 0.68% [74 of 10,831] in period 1 vs 0.69% [69 of 10,064] in period 2, P=.99). Discontinuation of extrinsic warming was associated with significantly increased extravasation and overall adverse event rates for iopamidol 370 (extravasation rates: 0.27% [five of 1851] vs 0.87% [18 of 2074], P=.05; allergic-like reaction rates: 0.16% [three of 1851] vs 0.39% [eight of 2074], P=.42; overall adverse events: 0.43% [eight of 1851] vs 1.25% [26 of 2074], P=.02). Extrinsic warming (to 37°C) does not appear to affect adverse event rates for intravenous injections of iopamidol 300 of less than 6 mL/sec but is associated with a significant reduction in extravasation and overall adverse
Compensatory mechanisms mitigate the effect of warming and drought on wood formation.
Balducci, Lorena; Cuny, Henri E; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Deslauriers, Annie; Giovannelli, Alessio; Rossi, Sergio
2016-06-01
Because of global warming, high-latitude ecosystems are expected to experience increases in temperature and drought events. Wood formation will have to adjust to these new climatic constraints to maintain tree mechanical stability and long-distance water transport. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamic processes involved in wood formation under warming and drought. Xylogenesis, gas exchange, water relations and wood anatomy of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] saplings were monitored during a greenhouse experiment where temperature was increased during daytime or night-time (+6 °C) combined with a drought period. The kinetics of tracheid development expressed as rate and duration of the xylogenesis sub-processes were quantified using generalized additive models. Drought and warming had a strong influence on cell production, but little effect on wood anatomy. The increase in cell production rate under warmer temperatures, and especially during the night-time warming at the end of the growing season, resulted in wider tree-rings. However, the strong compensation between rates and durations of cell differentiation processes mitigates warming and drought effects on tree-ring structure. Our results allowed quantification of how wood formation kinetics is regulated when water and heat stress increase, allowing trees to adapt to future environmental conditions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Eisenhauer, Nico; Stefanski, Artur; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Rice, Karen; Rich, Roy; Reich, Peter B.
2014-01-01
Climate change causes species range shifts and potentially alters biological invasions. The invasion of European earthworm species across northern North America has severe impacts on native ecosystems. Given the long and cold winters in that region that to date supposedly have slowed earthworm invasion, future warming is hypothesized to accelerate earthworm invasions into yet non-invaded regions. Alternatively, warming-induced reductions in soil water content (SWC) can also decrease earthworm performance. We tested these hypotheses in a field warming experiment at two sites in Minnesota, USA by sampling earthworms in closed and open canopy in three temperature treatments in 2010 and 2012. Structural equation modeling revealed that detrimental warming effects on earthworm densities and biomass could indeed be partly explained by warming-induced reductions in SWC. The direction of warming effects depended on the current average SWC: warming had neutral to positive effects at high SWC, whereas the opposite was true at low SWC. Our results suggest that warming limits the invasion of earthworms in northern North America by causing less favorable soil abiotic conditions, unless warming is accompanied by increased and temporally even distributions of rainfall sufficient to offset greater water losses from higher evapotranspiration. PMID:25363633
Record-breaking climate extremes in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nangombe, Shingirai; Zhou, Tianjun; Zhang, Wenxia; Wu, Bo; Hu, Shuai; Zou, Liwei; Li, Donghuan
2018-05-01
Anthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events1, the impacts of which will be particularly hard-felt in already vulnerable locations such as Africa2. However, projected changes in African climate extremes remain little explored, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets3,4. Here, using Community Earth System Model low warming simulations5, we examine how heat and hydrological extremes may change in Africa under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, focusing on the projected changing likelihood of events that have comparable magnitudes to observed record-breaking seasons. In the Community Earth System Model, limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C is suggested to robustly reduce the frequency of heat extremes compared to 2 °C. In particular, the probability of events similar to the December-February 1991/1992 southern African and 2009/2010 North African heat waves is estimated to be reduced by 25 ± 5% and 20 ± 4%, respectively, if warming is limited to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C. For hydrometeorological extremes (that is, drought and heavy precipitation), by contrast, signal differences are indistinguishable from the variation between ensemble members. Thus, according to this model, continued efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C offer considerable benefits in terms of minimizing heat extremes and their associated socio-economic impacts across Africa.
Experimental evidence of warming-induced flowering in the Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica.
Ruiz, J M; Marín-Guirao, L; García-Muñoz, R; Ramos-Segura, A; Bernardeau-Esteller, J; Pérez, M; Sanmartí, N; Ontoria, Y; Romero, J; Arthur, R; Alcoverro, T; Procaccini, G
2017-10-25
Sexual reproduction in predominantly clonal marine plants increases recombination favoring adaptation and enhancing species resilience to environmental change. Recent studies of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica suggest that flowering intensity and frequency are correlated with warming events associated with global climate change, but these studies have been observational without direct experimental support. We used controlled experiments to test if warming can effectively trigger flowering in P. oceanica. A six-week heat wave was simulated under laboratory mesocosm conditions. Heating negatively impacted leaf growth rates, but by the end of the experiment most of the heated plants flowered, while controls plants did not. Heated and control plants were not genetically distinct and flowering intensity was significantly correlated with allelic richness and heterozygosity. This is an unprecedented finding, showing that the response of seagrasses to warming will be more plastic, more complex and potentially more resilient than previously imagined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985–2012
Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark
2016-01-01
Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985–2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985–91 and 2006–12 – a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress. PMID:27922080
Active Movement Warm-Up Routines
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy
2011-01-01
This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…
Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.
Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong
2017-10-12
Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.
Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.
McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin
2018-03-13
Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.
Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang
2013-01-01
Background and Aims Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. Methods A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Key Results Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. Conclusions The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors. PMID:23585496
Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang
2013-06-01
Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors.
Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields
Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,
2015-01-01
Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.
Effect of warming temperatures on US wheat yields.
Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Nalley, Lawton Lanier
2015-06-02
Climate change is expected to increase future temperatures, potentially resulting in reduced crop production in many key production regions. Research quantifying the complex relationship between weather variables and wheat yields is rapidly growing, and recent advances have used a variety of model specifications that differ in how temperature data are included in the statistical yield equation. A unique data set that combines Kansas wheat variety field trial outcomes for 1985-2013 with location-specific weather data is used to analyze the effect of weather on wheat yield using regression analysis. Our results indicate that the effect of temperature exposure varies across the September-May growing season. The largest drivers of yield loss are freezing temperatures in the Fall and extreme heat events in the Spring. We also find that the overall effect of warming on yields is negative, even after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures. Our analysis indicates that there exists a tradeoff between average (mean) yield and ability to resist extreme heat across varieties. More-recently released varieties are less able to resist heat than older lines. Our results also indicate that warming effects would be partially offset by increased rainfall in the Spring. Finally, we find that the method used to construct measures of temperature exposure matters for both the predictive performance of the regression model and the forecasted warming impacts on yields.
Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen
2017-04-01
Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical
Warm-water coral reefs and climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Spalding, Mark D.; Brown, Barbara E.
2015-11-01
Coral reefs are highly dynamic ecosystems that are regularly exposed to natural perturbations. Human activities have increased the range, intensity, and frequency of disturbance to reefs. Threats such as overfishing and pollution are being compounded by climate change, notably warming and ocean acidification. Elevated temperatures are driving increasingly frequent bleaching events that can lead to the loss of both coral cover and reef structural complexity. There remains considerable variability in the distribution of threats and in the ability of reefs to survive or recover from such disturbances. Without significant emissions reductions, however, the future of coral reefs is increasingly bleak.
Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology
Trevor F. Keenan; Josh Gray; Mark A. Friedl; Michael Toomey; Gil Bohrer; David Y. Hollinger; J. William Munger; John O’Keefe; Hans Peter Schmid; Ian Sue Wing; Bai Yang; Andrew D. Richardson
2014-01-01
The timing of phenological events exerts a strong control over ecosystem function and leads to multiple feedbacks to the climate system1. Phenology is inherently sensitive to temperature (although the exact sensitivity is disputed2) and recent warming is reported to have led to earlier spring, later autumn3,4...
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2009-04-17
State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...
Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, I. I.
2016-02-01
Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall `worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can `over-powers' the `better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.
Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, I. I.
2015-12-01
Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by ~ 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall 'worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can 'over-powers' the 'better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.
Volcanic Forcing of Global Warming during the Pleistocene?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ericson, J. E.
2002-12-01
The volcanic forcing hypothesis is a new model of global climatic change that may have significance for the history of the Earth and palaeoclimate. The rapid injection of CO2 into the atmosphere during volcanic eruption through underlying massive carbonate appears to trigger global warming through the emission of this greenhouse gas. The record of eruptions (10-20 Kya) of 6 volcanoes overlying 900-10,000 meters of carbonate of the Cordillerian geosyncline in the American Southwest is synchronous with the Late Pleistocene marine transgression record. The record of volcanic eruptions through massive carbonates (20-71 Kya) in Italy, Indonesia and the American Southwest appears to be synchronous with the Wisconsin interstadial events. The extension of the volcanic eruption and climatic records to 71 Kya and inclusion of other volcanic regions represents additional supporting of evidence of the volcanic forcing hypothesis. As an example of these processes, the thermal dissociation of carbonate by magma forming a volcanic conduit (0.4 km high, 0.5 km radius) and subsequent release of carbon dioxide would increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide by 25%. The emitted CO2 would trigger a series of other processes, ocean-atmospheric CO2 exchange, increased photosynthesis and changes with terrestrial biome and global warming. [Recent field reconnaissance of Sunset Crater (erupted 1064-65 AD) indicates the evidence for thermal dissolution of limestone during basaltic extrusion.] Carbon dioxide emitted from volcanic-carbonate sources meets several observed conditions: a rapid increase (<20 years) in atmospheric carbon dioxide, abrupt increases of marine (isotopic) carbon, dilution of atmospheric radiocarbon activity independent of fluctuations of the geomagnetic field and cosmic ray fluxes, temporal covariation of sulfate, Ca+2, and CO2 in ice core records and random, interstadial events during glaciation. Volcanic forcing hypothesis represents a new model and synthesis of
Inter-annual Variability of Temperature and Extreme Heat Events during the Nairobi Warm Season
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scott, A.; Misiani, H. O.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ouma, G. O.; Anyah, R. O.; Jordan, A.
2016-12-01
Extreme heat events significantly stress all organisms in the ecosystem, and are likely to be amplified in peri-urban and urban areas. Understanding the variability and drivers behind these events is key to generating early warnings, yet in Equatorial East Africa, this information is currently unavailable. This study uses daily maximum and minimum temperature records from weather stations within Nairobi and its surroundings to characterize variability in daily minimum temperatures and the number of extreme heat events. ERA-Interim reanalysis is applied to assess the drivers of these events at event and seasonal time scales. At seasonal time scales, high temperatures in Nairobi are a function of large scale climate variability associated with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature (GMSST). Extreme heat events, however, are more strongly associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For instance, the persistence of AMO and ENSO, in particular, provide a basis for seasonal prediction of extreme heat events/days in Nairobi. It is also apparent that the temporal signal from extreme heat events in tropics differs from classic heat wave definitions developed in the mid-latitudes, which suggests that a new approach for defining these events is necessary for tropical regions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sridharan, S.; Sathishkumar, S.; Raghunath, K.
2009-01-01
Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) during January-February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending) motions at high (low) latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.
Voluminous Icelandic Basaltic Eruptions Appear To Cause Abrupt Global Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ward, P. L.
2011-12-01
Beginning on June 21, 1783, Laki volcano in southern Iceland erupted 14.7 km3 basalt, ejecting 24 Mt SO_{2} into the stratosphere where it was blown eastward and northward and 98 Mt into the troposphere where the jet stream transported it southeastward to Europe. The "dry fog" observed in Europe with an estimated mean concentration of 60 ppbv SO2, raised daytime temperatures as much as 3.3^{o}C, causing the warmest July in England from 1659 when measurements began until 1983. SO2, tropospheric O_{3}, NO2, and fine ash absorb ultraviolet energy from the sun that causes the bonds between and within their atoms to oscillate at 47 times higher frequency than the bonds in CO_{2} absorbing infrared radiation. Temperature is proportional to the kinetic energy of these oscillations, i.e. the frequency squared. Thus these gases are raised to much higher temperatures than greenhouse gases. The Stefan-Boltzmann law says that radiation from these molecules is a constant times temperature raised to the fourth power. As a result, SO2 and ash radiate far more energy back to earth than CO_{2}, causing warming. Another way to look at the energy involved shows that 15 ppbv SO2 in the 0.3-0.42 μm wavelength band absorbs as much solar energy per unit volume as 388,000 ppbv CO_{2} absorbs infrared energy in the 12.7-17.5 μm band. Basaltic volcanoes such as Laki emit 10 to 100 times more SO2 than more evolved magmas and are less explosive, leaving most of the SO_{2} in the troposphere. All 14 Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) sudden warmings between 46 and 11 ka are contemporaneous with the highest levels of sulfate in the GISP2 drill hole near Summit Greenland. These DO events typically warmed the northern hemisphere out of the ice age within decades, but as volcanism waned, ocean temperatures cooled the world back into an ice age within centuries. The world finally exited the ice age when voluminous volcanism continued from 11.6 to 9.6 ka. Basaltic table mountains or tuyas in Iceland document
Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard
2016-01-01
Abstract Background Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta‐analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO2 during laparoscopy. Methods An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO2 or cold, dry CO2. The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. Results The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO2 insufflation. Conclusion Warmed, humidified CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO2. PMID:27976517
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.
Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping
2013-09-19
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun
2018-03-01
In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meehl, Gerald A.; van Loon, Harry; Arblaster, Julie M.
2017-07-01
The semiannual oscillation (SAO) is a twice-yearly northward movement (in May-June-July (MJJ) and November-December-January (NDJ)) of the circumpolar trough of sea level pressure (SLP) in the Southern Hemisphere with effects throughout the troposphere. During MJJ the second harmonic of SLP, describing the SAO, has low values of SLP north of 50°S in the subtropical South Pacific, while the first harmonic, which is dominant over the Australian sector, increases to its peak. This once-a-year peak in negative SLP gradients (decreasing to the east) between Australia and the ocean to its east extends to the equatorial Pacific. Southern Oscillation warm events since 1950, with an intensification of this seasonal cycle, have larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific in MJJ and during the following mature phase in NDJ. Weak amplification of the seasonal cycle in MJJ tends to be followed by larger-amplitude SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during NDJ.
Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates
Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.
2009-01-01
Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.
Multimodel comparison of the ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedatella, N. M.; Fang, T.-W.; Jin, H.; Sassi, F.; Schmidt, H.; Chau, J. L.; Siddiqui, T. A.; Goncharenko, L.
2016-07-01
A comparison of different model simulations of the ionosphere variability during the 2009 sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) is presented. The focus is on the equatorial and low-latitude ionosphere simulated by the Ground-to-topside model of the Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Model plus Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere (WAM+GIP), and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model eXtended version plus Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (WACCMX+TIMEGCM). The simulations are compared with observations of the equatorial vertical plasma drift in the American and Indian longitude sectors, zonal mean F region peak density (NmF2) from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites, and ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) at 75°W. The model simulations all reproduce the observed morning enhancement and afternoon decrease in the vertical plasma drift, as well as the progression of the anomalies toward later local times over the course of several days. However, notable discrepancies among the simulations are seen in terms of the magnitude of the drift perturbations, and rate of the local time shift. Comparison of the electron densities further reveals that although many of the broad features of the ionosphere variability are captured by the simulations, there are significant differences among the different model simulations, as well as between the simulations and observations. Additional simulations are performed where the neutral atmospheres from four different whole atmosphere models (GAIA, HAMMONIA (Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere), WAM, and WACCMX) provide the lower atmospheric forcing in the TIME-GCM. These simulations demonstrate that different neutral atmospheres, in particular, differences in the solar migrating semidiurnal tide, are partly responsible for the differences in the simulated
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tovey, David C.
1977-01-01
Most choral directors in schools today have been exposed to a variety of warm-up procedures. Yet, many do not use the warm-up time effectively as possible. Considers the factors appropriate to a warm-up exercise and three basic warm-up categories. (Author/RK)
Committed warming inferred from observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert
2017-09-01
Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.
Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2.
Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; LeCain, Daniel R; McMaster, Gregory S
2016-10-11
Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO 2 enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO 2 enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change.
Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2
Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; LeCain, Daniel R.; McMaster, Gregory S.
2016-01-01
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO2 enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO2 enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change. PMID:27727235
Warming and Chilling: Assessing Aspects of Changing Plant Ecology with Continental-scale Phenology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schwartz, M. D.; Hanes, J. M.
2009-12-01
Many recent ecological studies have concentrated on the direct impacts of climate warming, such as modifications to seasonal plant and animal life cycle events (phenology). There are many examples, with most indicating earlier onset of spring plant growth and delayed onset of autumn senescence. However, the implication of continued warming for plant species’ chilling requirements has received comparatively less attention. Temperate zone woody plants often require a certain level of cool season "chilling" (accumulated time at temperatures below a specific threshold) to break dormancy and prepare to respond to springtime warming. Thus, the potential impacts of insufficient chilling must be included in a comprehensive assessment of plant species' responses to climate warming. Vegetation phenological data, when collected for specific plant species at continental-scale, can be used to extract information relating to the combined impacts of reduced chilling and warming on plant species physiology. In a recent study, we demonstrated that common lilac first leaf and first bloom phenology (collected from multiple locations in the western United States and matched with air temperature records) can estimate the species' chilling requirement (in this case 1748 chilling hours, below a base temperature of 7.2°C) and highlight the changing impact of warming on the plant's phenological response in light of that requirement. Specifically, when chilling is above the requirement, lilac first leaf dates advance at a rate of -5.0 days per 100 hour chilling accumulation reduction, and lilac first bloom dates advance at a rate of -4.2 days per 100 hour chilling accumulation reduction. In contrast, when chilling is below the requirement, the lilac event dates advance at a much reduced rate of -1.6 days per 100 hour reduction for first leaf date and -2.2 days per 100 hour reduction for first bloom date. Overall, these encouraging results for common lilac suggest that similar continental
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Meng, Guanglan; Han, Yousong; Wang, Shaoqing; Wang, Zhenyan
2004-03-01
Based on the authors’ 1986 to 1994 sporo-pollen assemblage analysis in the southern Yellow Sea area, data from 3 main cores were studied in combination with14C, palaeomagnetic and thermoluminescence data. The evolution of the paleoclimate environments in the southern Yellow Sea since 15ka B. P. was revealed that, in deglaciation of the last glacial period, the climate of late glaciation transformed into that of postglaciation, accompanied by a series of violent climate fluctuations. These evolution events happened in a global climate background and related to the geographic changes in eastern China. We distinguished three short-term cooling events and two warming events. Among them, the sporo-pollen assemblage of subzone A1 showed some cold climate features indicating that a cooling event occurred at about 15-14ka. B. P. in early deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Oldest Dryas. In subzone A3, many drought-enduring herbal pollens and some few pollens of cold-resistant Picea, Abies, etc. were found, which indicated that a cooling event, with cold and arid climate, occurred at about 12-11ka. B. P. in late deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Younger Dryas. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone B showed warm and arid climate features in postglaciation. Although the assemblage of subzone B2 indicated a cold and arid climate environment, the development of flora in subzone B2 climate was less cold than that in A3. Subzone B2 indicated a cooling event which occurred at about 9ka B. P. in early olocene. Subzone A2, with some distinct differences from subzone A1 and A3, indicated a warming event which occurred at 14-13ka. B.P. and should correspond to a warming fluctuation. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone C showed features of warn-moist flora and climate, and indicated a warming event which universally occurred along the coast of eastern China at 8-3 ka B. P. in middle Holocene, and its duration was longer than that of any climate events mentioned
Military Implications of Global Warming.
1999-05-20
U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United
Analysis of the 2015-16 El Niño Event Using NASA's GEOS Data Assimilation System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pawson, S.; Lim, Y. K.; Kovach, R. M.; Vernieres, G.
2016-12-01
The strong El Niño event that occurred in 2015/2016 is analyzed using atmospheric and oceanic analyses produced using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) systems. A theme of the work is to compare and contrast this event with two other strong El Niños, in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, that are included in the satellite-data era of the MERRA and MERRA-2 reanalyses produced using the GEOS system. Distribution of the maximum anomalies of tropical sea-surface temperature (SST), precipitation, Walker circulation, and cloud fraction indicate that 2015/2016 is a Central Pacific (CP) El Niño. The event had an early onset compared to the 1997/1998 El Niño, with extremely strong warming and precipitation over the Central Pacific, and was the strongest in terms of central Pacific SST anomalies. The large region of warm temperature anomalies over most of the Pacific and Indian Ocean in the 2015-2016 event were due to the accumulative impacts of the El Niño event along with a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a decadal warming trend over the western Pacific, Maritime Continent, and Indian Ocean. The relatively weak development of the 2015/2016 El Niño event over the Eastern Pacific was likely due to weaker westerly wind bursts and Madden-Julian Oscillation during spring, which in 1997/1998 served to drive the warm anomalies further East towards South America, making that event the strongest Eastern Pacific El Niño (in the recent data record). This is reflected in the 2015/2016 event having a shallower thermocline over the Eastern Pacific, with a weaker zonal gradient of sub-surface water temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. The major extra-tropical teleconnections associated with the El Niño in 2015/2016 are at least comparable to those in the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niño events. Specifically, the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection in 2015/2016 is the strongest of these three El Niño events, leading to larger extra
Cenozoic tectonic events at the border of the Paraná Basin, São Paulo, Brazil
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernandes, A. J.; Amaral, G.
2002-03-01
In the last decade, even in areas that had been considered tectonically stable, a great amount of Cenozoic, including the Quaternary period, structural data have been collected throughout Brazil. The main goal of this study is to describe the Cenozoic structures and tectonic evolution of an area that is located at the border of the Paraná Basin in the state of São Paulo. The research methods consisted of the analysis of: (1) brittle structure data, mainly conjugate fractures and fault slip data; (2) lineaments traced on air photos and TM Landsat and radar images; and (3) a second-order base surface map. The study area, during the Cenozoic, has been affected by five strike-slip tectonic events, which generated mainly strike-slip faults, and secondarily normal and reverse ones. The events were named, from the oldest to the youngest, E1-NE, E2-EW, E3-NW, E4-NS, and E5-NNE; and the maximum principal stresses σ1 strike approximately NE-SW, E-W, NW-SE, N-S, and NNE-SSW, respectively. Event E2-EW seems to have been contemporaneous with the deposition of the Rio Claro Formation, the most important Cenozoic deposit of probable Neogenic age, and also to have controlled the distribution of its deposits. Event E3-NW was the strongest one in the area, as is pointed out by structural data, and the maximum principal stress σ1 of event E5-NNE is partially concordant with the orientation of σH-max of well break-out data in the Paraná Basin, suggesting a Neotectonic activity for this event. Finally, discontinuities parallel and correlated to the directions of strike-slip faults of the Cenozoic events seem to have actively controlled the sculpturing of the relief in the study area.
Warm-water coral reefs and climate change.
Spalding, Mark D; Brown, Barbara E
2015-11-13
Coral reefs are highly dynamic ecosystems that are regularly exposed to natural perturbations. Human activities have increased the range, intensity, and frequency of disturbance to reefs. Threats such as overfishing and pollution are being compounded by climate change, notably warming and ocean acidification. Elevated temperatures are driving increasingly frequent bleaching events that can lead to the loss of both coral cover and reef structural complexity. There remains considerable variability in the distribution of threats and in the ability of reefs to survive or recover from such disturbances. Without significant emissions reductions, however, the future of coral reefs is increasingly bleak. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karrouk, M. S.
2016-12-01
Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global warming has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in winter periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in winter, which brings the warm tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "extreme" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by extreme events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and winter 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed
Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ...
2014-12-02
One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming
One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.
2014-12-01
Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature
Warming off southwestern Japan linked to distributional shifts of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds.
Tanaka, Kouki; Taino, Seiya; Haraguchi, Hiroko; Prendergast, Gabrielle; Hiraoka, Masanori
2012-11-01
To assess distributional shifts of species in response to recent warming, historical distribution records are the most requisite information. The surface seawater temperature (SST) of Kochi Prefecture, southwestern Japan on the western North Pacific, has significantly risen, being warmed by the Kuroshio Current. Past distributional records of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds (Laminariales and Fucales) exist at about 10-year intervals from the 1970s, along with detailed SST datasets at several sites along Kochi's >700 km coastline. In order to provide a clear picture of distributional shifts of coastal marine organisms in response to warming SST, we observed the present distribution of seaweeds and analyzed the SST datasets to estimate spatiotemporal SST trends in this coastal region. We present a large increase of 0.3°C/decade in the annual mean SST of this area over the past 40 years. Furthermore, a comparison of the previous and present distributions clearly showed the contraction of temperate species' distributional ranges and expansion of tropical species' distributional ranges in the seaweeds. Although the main temperate kelp Ecklonia (Laminariales) had expanded their distribution during periods of cooler SST, they subsequently declined as the SST warmed. Notably, the warmest SST of the 1997-98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event was the most likely cause of a widespread destruction of the kelp populations; no recovery was found even in the present survey at the formerly habitable sites where warm SSTs have been maintained. Temperate Sargassum spp. (Fucales) that dominated widely in the 1970s also declined in accordance with recent warming SSTs. In contrast, the tropical species, S. ilicifolium, has gradually expanded its distribution to become the most conspicuously dominant among the present observations. Thermal gradients, mainly driven by the warming Kuroshio Current, are presented as an explanation for the successive changes in both temperate and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong
2018-02-01
To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.
Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Reed, Sasha C.; Grote, Ed; Belnap, Jayne
2015-01-01
Many arid and semiarid ecosystems have soils covered with well-developed biological soil crust communities (biocrusts) made up of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface. These communities are a fundamental component of dryland ecosystems, and are critical to dryland carbon (C) cycling. To examine the effects of warming temperatures on soil C balance in a dryland ecosystem, we used infrared heaters to warm biocrust-dominated soils to 2 °C above control conditions at a field site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We monitored net soil exchange (NSE) of CO2 every hour for 21 months using automated flux chambers (5 control and 5 warmed chambers), which included the CO2 fluxes of the biocrusts and the soil beneath them. We observed measurable photosynthesis in biocrust soils on 12 % of measurement days, which correlated well with precipitation events and soil wet-up. These days included several snow events, providing what we believe to be the first evidence of substantial photosynthesis underneath snow by biocrust organisms in drylands. Overall, biocrust soils in both control and warmed plots were net CO2 sources to the atmosphere, with control plots losing 62 ± 8 g C m−2 (mean ± SE) over the first year of measurement and warmed plots losing 74 ± 9 g C m−2. Between control and warmed plots, the difference in soil C loss was uncertain over the course of the entire year due to large and variable rates in spring, but on days during which soils were wet and crusts were actively photosynthesizing, biocrusts that were warmed by 2 °C had a substantially more negative C balance (i.e., biocrust soils took up less C and/or lost more C in warmed plots). Taken together, our data suggest a substantial risk of increased C loss from biocrust soils with higher future temperatures, and highlight a robust capacity to predict CO2 exchange in biocrust soils using easily measured environmental parameters.
Earlier snowmelt and warming lead to earlier but not necessarily more plant growth.
Livensperger, Carolyn; Steltzer, Heidi; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony; Sullivan, Patrick F; Wallenstein, Matthew; Weintraub, Michael N
2016-01-01
Climate change over the past ∼50 years has resulted in earlier occurrence of plant life-cycle events for many species. Across temperate, boreal and polar latitudes, earlier seasonal warming is considered the key mechanism leading to earlier leaf expansion and growth. Yet, in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems, the timing of spring plant growth may also be cued by snowmelt, which may occur earlier in a warmer climate. Multiple environmental cues protect plants from growing too early, but to understand how climate change will alter the timing and magnitude of plant growth, experiments need to independently manipulate temperature and snowmelt. Here, we demonstrate that altered seasonality through experimental warming and earlier snowmelt led to earlier plant growth, but the aboveground production response varied among plant functional groups. Earlier snowmelt without warming led to early leaf emergence, but often slowed the rate of leaf expansion and had limited effects on aboveground production. Experimental warming alone had small and inconsistent effects on aboveground phenology, while the effect of the combined treatment resembled that of early snowmelt alone. Experimental warming led to greater aboveground production among the graminoids, limited changes among deciduous shrubs and decreased production in one of the dominant evergreen shrubs. As a result, we predict that early onset of the growing season may favour early growing plant species, even those that do not shift the timing of leaf expansion. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.
Extreme Marine Warming Across Tropical Australia During Austral Summer 2015-2016
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Feng, Ming; Marshall, Andrew G.
2018-02-01
During austral summer 2015-2016, prolonged extreme ocean warming events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), occurred in the waters around tropical Australia. MHWs arose first in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean in November 2015, emerging progressively east until March 2016, when all waters from the North West Shelf to the Coral Sea were affected. The MHW maximum intensity tended to occur in March, coinciding with the timing of the maximum sea surface temperature (SST). Large areas were in a MHW state for 3-4 months continuously with maximum intensities over 2°C. In 2016, the Indonesian-Australian Basin and areas including the Timor Sea and Kimberley shelf experienced the longest and most intense MHW from remotely sensed SST dating back to 1982. In situ temperature data from temperature loggers at coastal sites revealed a consistent picture, with MHWs appearing from west to east and peaking in March 2016. Temperature data from moorings, an Argo float, and Slocum gliders showed the extent of warming with depth. The events occurred during a strong El Niño and weakened monsoon activity, enhanced by the extended suppressed phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reduced cloud cover in January and February 2016 led to positive air-sea heat flux anomalies into the ocean, predominantly due to the shortwave radiation contribution with a smaller additional contribution from the latent heat flux anomalies. A data-assimilating ocean model showed regional changes in the upper ocean circulation and a change in summer surface mixed layer depths and barrier layer thicknesses consistent with past El Niño events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ye, H.; Fetzer, E. J.; Wong, S.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Wang, T.; Chen, L. L.; Von, D.
2015-12-01
This study uses historical records of synoptic observations over northern Eurasia to examine changing frequency of precipitation associated with large synoptic events versus convective and thunderstorm activities. We found days associated with showers and precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms have been increasing in general during the study period of 1966-2000 while the total wet day frequency has been decreasing in all seasons. This study suggests increasing convective and severe weather-related precipitation events may be a significant contributor to higher intensity and more extreme precipitation under a warming climate.
Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A.; Crowe, Sean A.; Hecky, Robert E.
2014-01-01
Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient. PMID:25295730
Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E
2014-01-01
Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.
Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie
2015-01-01
Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October–April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar ‘Narve Viking’ than in the cultivar ‘Titania’, but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in ‘Titania’. Since ‘Narve Viking’ has a higher chilling requirement than ‘Titania’, this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of ‘Narve Viking’, which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter
Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie
2015-03-23
Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated the impact of slightly elevated temperatures (+0.76 °C in the air, +1.35 °C in the soil) during the non-growing season (October-April) on freezing tolerance, carbohydrate metabolism, dormancy release, spring phenology and reproductive output in two blackcurrant (Ribes nigrum) cultivars to understand how winter warming modifies phenological traits in a woody perennial known to have a large chilling requirement and to be sensitive to spring frost. Warming delayed dormancy release more in the cultivar 'Narve Viking' than in the cultivar 'Titania', but advanced budburst and flowering predominantly in 'Titania'. Since 'Narve Viking' has a higher chilling requirement than 'Titania', this indicates that, in high-chilling-requiring genotypes, dormancy responses may temper the effect of warming on spring phenology. Winter warming significantly reduced fruit yield the following summer in both cultivars, corroborating the hypothesis that a decline in winter chill may decrease reproductive effort in blackcurrant. Elevated winter temperatures tended to decrease stem freezing tolerance during cold acclimation and deacclimation, but it did not increase the risk of freeze-induced damage mid-winter. Plants at elevated temperature showed decreased levels of sucrose in stems of both cultivars and flower buds of 'Narve Viking', which, in buds, was associated with increased concentrations of glucose and fructose. Hence, winter warming influences carbohydrate metabolism, but it remains to be elucidated whether decreased sucrose levels account for any changes in freezing tolerance. Our results demonstrate that even a slight increase in winter temperature may alter phenological traits in
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herrera, Ramón
2017-05-01
A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R<1+3gHdot phi, and the strong regime in which 1
Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun
2017-04-01
The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a
Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.
Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F
2014-07-03
Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the
ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.
2017-12-01
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.
2009-04-01
While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in
Donner, Simon D; Knutson, Thomas R; Oppenheimer, Michael
2007-03-27
Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, we use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5 degrees C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term "committed warming" even after stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.
Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.
An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S
2018-02-01
Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.
GHG warming impact on the removal and transport of particulate matter: mean and extreme pollution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.
2016-12-01
Particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with a chemistry-climate model, we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the main cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally, over North America and East Asia, the shift of future precipitation toward heavy intensity events, contributes to weakened wet removal flux. With the daily PM2.5 output, we also find that the well-known poleward shift of jet stream under global warming contributes to more frequent stagnation events (and less frequent cyclone passages) in northern hemispheric mid-latitude, which further enhances the occurrence of extreme pollution events.
Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.
Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen
2018-04-30
The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.
Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.
2017-03-01
During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.
Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K
2017-03-15
During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong
2012-01-01
Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.
Using Instrumental and Proxy Data to Determine the Causes of Fast and Slow Warming rates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Obrochta, S.
2015-12-01
The recent warming 'hiatus' is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. We derive samples of all natural and interval variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, with volcanic forcing acting as a pacemaker for both fast and slow warming rates in model simulations of the last millennium, and, to a smaller extent, from observations. Big eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years. A striking finding is the smaller influence of volcanism on surface temperature warming rates in instrumental and proxy data than in climate models. This talk will discuss the possible reasons of this discrepancy.
Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events
Hostetler, S.W.; Clark, P.U.; Bartlein, P.J.; Mix, A.C.; Pisias, N.J.
1999-01-01
We model the response of the climate system during Heinrich event 2 (H2) by employing an atmospheric general circulation model, using boundary conditions based on the concept of a "canonical" Heinrich event. The canonical event is initialized with a full-height Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs), followed by lowering of the LIS, then warming of North Atlantic SSTs. Our modeled temperature and wind fields exhibit spatially variable responses over the Northern Hemisphere at each stage of the H2 event. In some regions the climatic responses are additive, whereas in other regions they cancel or are of opposite sign, suggesting that Heinrich event climatic variations may have left complex signatures in geologic records. We find variations in the tropical water balance and the mass balance of ice sheets, and implications for variations in terrestrial methane production from the contraction of northern permafrost regions and the expansion of tropical wetlands. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.
Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.
1988-09-01
Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.
Differential arthropod responses to warming are altering the structure of Arctic communities
2018-01-01
The Arctic is experiencing some of the fastest rates of warming on the planet. Although many studies have documented responses to such warming by individual species, the idiosyncratic nature of these findings has prevented us from extrapolating them to community-level predictions. Here, we leverage the availability of a long-term dataset from Zackenberg, Greenland (593 700 specimens collected between 1996 and 2014), to investigate how climate parameters influence the abundance of different arthropod groups and overall community composition. We find that variation in mean seasonal temperatures, winter duration and winter freeze–thaw events is correlated with taxon-specific and habitat-dependent changes in arthropod abundances. In addition, we find that arthropod communities have exhibited compositional changes consistent with the expected effects of recent shifts towards warmer active seasons and fewer freeze–thaw events in NE Greenland. Changes in community composition are up to five times more extreme in drier than wet habitats, with herbivores and parasitoids generally increasing in abundance, while the opposite is true for surface detritivores. These results suggest that species interactions and food web dynamics are changing in the Arctic, with potential implications for key ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling and primary productivity. PMID:29765633
Differential arthropod responses to warming are altering the structure of Arctic communities.
Koltz, Amanda M; Schmidt, Niels M; Høye, Toke T
2018-04-01
The Arctic is experiencing some of the fastest rates of warming on the planet. Although many studies have documented responses to such warming by individual species, the idiosyncratic nature of these findings has prevented us from extrapolating them to community-level predictions. Here, we leverage the availability of a long-term dataset from Zackenberg, Greenland (593 700 specimens collected between 1996 and 2014), to investigate how climate parameters influence the abundance of different arthropod groups and overall community composition. We find that variation in mean seasonal temperatures, winter duration and winter freeze-thaw events is correlated with taxon-specific and habitat-dependent changes in arthropod abundances. In addition, we find that arthropod communities have exhibited compositional changes consistent with the expected effects of recent shifts towards warmer active seasons and fewer freeze-thaw events in NE Greenland. Changes in community composition are up to five times more extreme in drier than wet habitats, with herbivores and parasitoids generally increasing in abundance, while the opposite is true for surface detritivores. These results suggest that species interactions and food web dynamics are changing in the Arctic, with potential implications for key ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling and primary productivity.
Dean, Meara; Ramsay, Robert; Heriot, Alexander; Mackay, John; Hiscock, Richard; Lynch, A Craig
2017-05-01
Intraoperative hypothermia is linked to postoperative adverse events. The use of warmed, humidified CO 2 to establish pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopy has been associated with reduced incidence of intraoperative hypothermia. However, the small number and variable quality of published studies have caused uncertainty about the potential benefit of this therapy. This meta-analysis was conducted to specifically evaluate the effects of warmed, humidified CO 2 during laparoscopy. An electronic database search identified randomized controlled trials performed on adults who underwent laparoscopic abdominal surgery under general anesthesia with either warmed, humidified CO 2 or cold, dry CO 2 . The main outcome measure of interest was change in intraoperative core body temperature. The database search identified 320 studies as potentially relevant, and of these, 13 met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. During laparoscopic surgery, use of warmed, humidified CO 2 is associated with a significant increase in intraoperative core temperature (mean temperature change, 0.3°C), when compared with cold, dry CO 2 insufflation . CONCLUSION: Warmed, humidified CO 2 insufflation during laparoscopic abdominal surgery has been demonstrated to improve intraoperative maintenance of normothermia when compared with cold, dry CO 2. © 2016 The Authors. Asian Journal of Endoscopic Surgery published by Asia Endosurgery Task Force and Japan Society of Endoscopic Surgery and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
Rapid Recent Warming of Coral Reefs in the Florida Keys.
Manzello, Derek P
2015-11-16
Coral reef decline in the Florida Keys has been well-publicized, controversial, and polarizing owing to debate over the causative agent being climate change versus overfishing. The recurrence of mass bleaching in 2014, the sixth event since 1987, prompted a reanalysis of temperature data. The summer and winter of 2014 were the warmest on record. The oldest known in-situ temperature record of any coral reef is from Hens and Chickens Reef (H&C) in the Florida Keys, which showed significant warming from 1975-2014. The average number of days ≥31.5 and 32(o)C per year increased 2670% and 2560%, respectively, from the mid-1990 s to present relative to the previous 20 years. In every year after 1992 and 1994, maximum daily average temperatures exceeded 30.5 and 31°C, respectively. From 1975-1994, temperatures were <31 °C in 61% of years, and in 44% of the years prior to 1992 temperatures were <30.5 °C. The measured rate of warming predicts the start of annual bleaching between 2020 and 2034, sooner than expected from climate models and satellite-based sea temperatures. These data show that thermal stress is increasing and occurring on a near-annual basis on Florida Keys reefs due to ocean warming from climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Shuzhan; Polavarapu, Saroja M.; Shepherd, Theodore G.
2008-03-01
The mesospheric response to the 2002 Antarctic Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) is analysed using the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS), where it represents a vertical propagation of information from the observations into the data-free mesosphere. The CMAM-DAS simulates a cooling in the lowest part of the mesosphere which is accomplished by resolved motions, but which is extended to the mid- to upper mesosphere by the response of the model's non-orographic gravity-wave drag parameterization to the change in zonal winds. The basic mechanism is that elucidated by Holton consisting of a net eastward wave-drag anomaly in the mesosphere during the SSW, although in this case there is a net upwelling in the polar mesosphere. Since the zonal-mean mesospheric response is shown to be predictable, this demonstrates that variations in the mesospheric state can be slaved to the lower atmosphere through gravity-wave drag.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian
2010-01-01
This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.
Evaluating the extreme precipitation events using a mesoscale atmopshere model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yucel, I.; Onen, A.
2012-04-01
Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Mesoscale atmospheric models coupled with land surface models provide efficient forecasts for meteorological events in high lead time and therefore they should be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide more continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in producing the temporal and spatial characteristics of the number of extreme precipitation events observed in West Black Sea Region of Turkey. Extreme precipitation events usually resulted in flood conditions as an associated hydrologic response of the basin. The performance of the WRF system is further investigated by using the three dimensional variational (3D-VAR) data assimilation scheme within WRF. WRF performance with and without data assimilation at high spatial resolution (4 km) is evaluated by making comparison with gauge precipitation and satellite-estimated rainfall data from Multi Precipitation Estimates (MPE). WRF-derived precipitation showed capabilities in capturing the timing of the precipitation extremes and in some extent spatial distribution and magnitude of the heavy rainfall events. These precipitation characteristics are enhanced with the use of 3D-VAR scheme in WRF system. Data assimilation improved area-averaged precipitation forecasts by 9 percent and at some points there exists quantitative match in precipitation events, which are critical for hydrologic forecast application.
Effects of plyometrics performed during warm-up on 20 and 40 m sprint performance.
Creekmur, Ceith C; Haworth, Joshua L; Cox, Ronald H; Walsh, Mark S
2017-05-01
Postactivation potentiation in the form of a plyometric during warm-ups have been shown to improve performance in some speed/power events. This study aimed to determine if a plyometric during warm up can increase sprint performance in a 20 and 40 m sprint. In this study we measured sprint times of 10 male track and field athletes over distances of 20 and 40 m after warm-ups with and without a plyometric exercise. The subjects performed the sprints at the same time on 2 different days, once with the experimental treatment, a plyometric exercise in the form of a plate jump, and once without. Plate jumps were chosen as the plyometric treatment because they do not require special equipment or facilities. The plate used for the plate jumps had a mass of 11.2 kilograms, which was between 12.8-16.6% of each athlete's body mass. Statistical analysis showed a decrease in sprint time when a plyometric was performed during the warm-up for both 20 (t-test P<0.05) and 40 m sprints (t-test P<0.01). The effect sizes of the improvement for both the 20 and 40 m sprints were d=0.459 and d=0.405, respectively, which is considered a small to medium effect. These results indicate that including a plyometric exercise during warm-ups can improve sprint performance in collegiate aged male sprinters during short sprints.
Multi-species collapses at the warm edge of a warming sea
Rilov, Gil
2016-01-01
Even during the current biodiversity crisis, reports on population collapses of highly abundant, non-harvested marine species were rare until very recently. This is starting to change, especially at the warm edge of species’ distributions where populations are more vulnerable to stress. The Levant basin is the southeastern edge of distribution of most Mediterranean species. Coastal water conditions are naturally extreme, and are fast warming, making it a potential hotspot for species collapses. Using multiple data sources, I found strong evidence for major, sustained, population collapses of two urchins, one large predatory gastropod and a reef-building gastropod. Furthermore, of 59 molluscan species once-described in the taxonomic literature as common on Levant reefs, 38 were not found in the present-day surveys, and there was a total domination of non-indigenous species in molluscan assemblages. Temperature trends indicate an exceptional warming of the coastal waters in the past three decades. Though speculative at this stage, the fast rise in SST may have helped pushing these invertebrates beyond their physiological tolerance limits leading to population collapses and possible extirpations. If so, these collapses may indicate the initiation of a multi-species range contraction at the Mediterranean southeastern edge that may spread westward with additional warming. PMID:27853237
Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.
Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J
2015-10-21
Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.
Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming
Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.
2015-01-01
Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088
Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.
2015-10-01
Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.
Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.
2015-12-01
with knowledge that the background warming-driven drought trend will continue to intensify amidst a high degree of natural climate variability, highlight the critical need for a long-term outlook on drought resilience even though wet conditions are likely to soon mitigate the current drought event.
Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor
2017-04-01
In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.
Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress
Matthews, Tom K. R.; Wilby, Robert L.; Murphy, Conor
2017-01-01
In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations. PMID:28348220
Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress.
Matthews, Tom K R; Wilby, Robert L; Murphy, Conor
2017-04-11
In December of 2015, the international community pledged to limit global warming to below 2 °C above preindustrial (PI) to prevent dangerous climate change. However, to what extent, and for whom, is danger avoided if this ambitious target is realized? We address these questions by scrutinizing heat stress, because the frequency of extremely hot weather is expected to continue to rise in the approach to the 2 °C limit. We use analogs and the extreme South Asian heat of 2015 as a focusing event to help interpret the increasing frequency of deadly heat under specified amounts of global warming. Using a large ensemble of climate models, our results confirm that global mean air temperature is nonlinearly related to heat stress, meaning that the same future warming as realized to date could trigger larger increases in societal impacts than historically experienced. This nonlinearity is higher for heat stress metrics that integrate the effect of rising humidity. We show that, even in a climate held to 2 °C above PI, Karachi (Pakistan) and Kolkata (India) could expect conditions equivalent to their deadly 2015 heatwaves every year. With only 1.5 °C of global warming, twice as many megacities (such as Lagos, Nigeria, and Shanghai, China) could become heat stressed, exposing more than 350 million more people to deadly heat by 2050 under a midrange population growth scenario. The results underscore that, even if the Paris targets are realized, there could still be a significant adaptation imperative for vulnerable urban populations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca
2017-04-01
At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl
A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolutionmore » of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.« less
January 2016 West Antarctic Melt Event: Large Scale Forcing and Local Processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bromwich, D. H.; Nicolas, J. P.
2017-12-01
A huge surface melt event occurred in January 2016 that affected a large portion of the Ross Ice Shelf and adjacent parts of Marie Byrd Land of West Antarctica. It coincided with one of the strongest El Niño events on record in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The El Niño teleconnection pattern in the South Pacific Ocean favors the advection of warm, moist air into the western part of West Antarctica. At the same time strong westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, captured by the Southern Annular Mode or SAM, were strong before, during, and after the melting episode, and these tend to limit the transport of marine air into the Ross Ice Shelf region. This prominent melt event demonstrates that extensive melting can happen regardless of the state of the SAM when the El Niño forcing is strong. Furthermore, because climate models project more frequent major El Niños in the future with a warming climate, we can expect more major surface melt events in West Antarctica as the 21st century unfolds. The melting event occurred in part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that the ice sheet modeling study of DeConto and Pollard (2016) suggests is prone to collapse as a result of extreme greenhouse warming. This melt event happened while an important field campaign, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), was ongoing in central West Antarctica. The observations collected during this campaign provided unique insight into some of the physical mechanisms governing surface melting in this otherwise data-sparse region. In particular, these observations highlighted the presence of low-level liquid-water clouds, which aided the radiative heating of the snow surface from both shortwave and longwave radiation, reminiscent of summer melting conditions in Greenland. The resulting large flux of energy into the snow pack was reflected in increased satellite microwave brightness temperatures that were used to follow the evolution of the widespread
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Castro, C.
2013-05-01
Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.
Gutknecht, J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Kluber, L. A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Hanson, P. J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.; Schadt, C. W. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.
2016-06-01
This data set provides the peat water content and peat temperature at time of sampling for peat cores collected before and during the SPRUCE Whole Ecosystem Warming (WEW) study. Cores for the current data set were collected during the following bulk peat sampling events: 13 June 2016 and 23 August 2016. Over time, this dataset will be updated with each new major bulk peat sampling event, and dates/methods will be updated accordingly.
Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Jianbin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Zhang, Qiyi; Lin, Yanluan; Hao, Mingju; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Yao, Yao; Chen, Xin; Wang, Lei; Nie, Suping; Yin, Yizhou; Xu, Ying; Zhang, Jiansong
2017-12-01
The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1-3. Although various physical processes4-8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area9. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset11 through employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method12. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR51, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.
Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Singh, I.; Dominguez, F.
2016-12-01
Changing climate could impact the frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric river events. This can have important consequences for regions like the Southwestern United Sates that rely upon AR-related precipitation for meeting their water demand and are prone to AR-related flooding. This study investigates the effects of climate change on extreme AR events in the Salt and Verde river basins in Central Arizona using a pseudo global warming method (PGW). First, the five most extreme events that affected the region were selected. High-resolution control simulations of these events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model realistically captured the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation. Subsequently, following the PGW approach, the WRF initial and lateral boundary conditions were perturbed. The perturbation signals were obtained from an ensemble of 9 General Circulation Models for two warming scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. Several simulations were conducted changing the temperature and relative humidity fields. PGW simulations reveal that while the overall dynamics of the storms did not change significantly, there was marked strengthening of associated Integrated Vertical Transport (IVT) plumes. There was a general increase in the precipitation over the basins due to increased moisture availability, but heterogeneous spatial changes. Additionally, no significant changes in the strength of the pre-cold frontal low-level jet in the future simulations were observed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper
2013-04-01
Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Regional hydrometeorological system model which couples the atmosphere with physical and gridded based surface hydrology provide efficient predictions for extreme hydrological events. This modeling system can be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas at high spatial resolution. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro) model that performs the terrain, sub-terrain, and channel routing in producing streamflow from WRF-derived forcing of extreme precipitation events. The capability of the system with different options such as data assimilation is tested for number of flood events observed in basins of western Black Sea Region in Turkey. Rainfall event structures and associated flood responses are evaluated with gauge and satellite-derived precipitation and measured streamflow values. The modeling system shows skills in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall events and resulted flood hydrographs. High-resolution routing modules activated in the model enhance the simulated discharges.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lysack, Mishka
2009-01-01
The Teach-in on Global Warming Solutions is part of a larger socio-environmental movement concerned with combating climate change. Highlighting the history and elements of the teach-in as a model of learning, the article examines the teach-in movement, using a local event at the University of Calgary as an illustration. Conceptual resources from…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fagan, B. M.
2010-12-01
The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.
Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities
Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.
2016-01-01
How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044
Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.
Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J
2016-10-01
How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, Jinggao; Li, Tim; Xu, Haiming
2018-01-01
The seasonal timing or onset date of the stratospheric final warming (SFWOD) events has a considerable interannual variability. This paper reports a statistically significant relationship between the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and SFWOD in the Northern Hemisphere in two sub-periods (1951-1978 and 1979-2015). Specifically, in the first (second) sub-period, the NPGO is negatively (positively) linked with SFWOD. Composite analyses associated with anomalous NPGO years are conducted to diagnose the dynamic processes of the NPGO-SFWOD link. During 1951-1978, positive NPGO years tend to strengthen the Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern in the mid-troposphere in boreal winter. The strengthened PNA pattern in February leads to strong planetary wave activity in the extratropical stratosphere from late February to March and causes the early onset of SFW in early April. By contrast, a strengthened Western Pacific pattern from January to early February in negative NPGO years causes a burst of planetary waves in both the troposphere and extratropical stratosphere from late January to mid-February and results in more winter stratospheric sudden warming events, which, in turn, leads to a dormant spring and a late onset of SFW in late April. During 1979-2015, positive (negative) NPGO years strongly strengthen (weaken) the mid-tropospheric Aleutian low and the Western Pacific pattern from January to mid-March, leading to increased (decreased) planetary wavenumber-1 activity in the stratosphere from mid- to late winter and thus more (less) winter stratospheric sudden warming events and late (early) onsets of SFW in early May (mid-April).
Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage.
Meineke, Emily; Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D
2016-10-12
A substantial amount of global carbon is stored in mature trees. However, no experiments to date test how warming affects mature tree carbon storage. Using a unique, citywide, factorial experiment, we investigated how warming and insect herbivory affected physiological function and carbon sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem service assessments that do not consider urban conditions may overestimate urban tree carbon storage. Because urban and global warming are becoming more intense, our results suggest that urban trees will sequester even less carbon in the future. © 2016 The Author(s).
Keller, Charles F
2007-03-09
In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter
Microbial Community Activity is Insensitive to Passive Warming in a Semiarid Ecosystem
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Espinosa, N. J.; Gallery, R. E.; Fehmi, J. S.
2016-12-01
Soil microorganisms drive ecosystem nutrient cycling through the production of extracellular enzymes, which facilitate organic matter decomposition, and the flux of large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Although aird and semiarid ecosystems occupy over 40% of land cover and are projected to expand due to climate change, much of our current understanding of these processes comes from mesic temperate ecosystems. Semiarid ecosystems have added complexity due to the widespread biological adaptations to infrequent and discreet precipitation pulses, which enable biological activity to persist throughout dry periods and thrive following seasonal precipitation events. Additionally, the intricacies of plant-microbe interactions and the response of these interactions to a warmer climate and increased precipitation variability in semiarid ecosystems present a continued challenge for climate change research. In this study, we used a passive warming experiment with added plant debris as either woodchip or biochar, to simulate different long-term carbon additions to two common semiarid soils. The response of soil respiration, plant biomass, and microbial activity was monitored bi-annually. We hypothesized that microbial activity would increase with temperature manipulations when soil moisture limitation was alleviated by summer precipitation. The passive warming treatment was most pronounced during periods of daily and seasonal temperature maxima. For all seven hydrolytic enzymes examined, there was no significant response to experimental warming, regardless of seasonal climatic and soil moisture variation. Surprisingly, soil respiration responded positively to warming for certain carbon additions and seasons, which did not correspond with a similar response in plant biomass. The enzyme results observed here are consistent with the few other experimental results for warming in semiarid ecosystems and indicate that the soil microbial community activity of semiarid
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grosvenor, D. P.; Choularton, T. W.; Gallagher, M. W.; Lachlan-Cope, T. A.; King, J. C.
2009-12-01
The high mountains of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) provide a climatic barrier between the west and east. The east side is generally blocked from the warmer oceanic air of the west and is consequently usually under the influence of colder continental air. On occasion, however, air from the west can cross the barrier in the form of strong winds travelling down the eastern slopes, which are also very warm and dry due to adiabatic descent. They penetrate onto the Larsen ice shelves where they lead to above zero surface temperatures and are therefore likely to encourage surface melting. Crevasse propagation due to the weight of accumulated meltwater is currently thought to have been the major factor in causing the near total disintegration of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002. In January 2006 the British Antarctic Survey performed an aircraft flight over the Larsen C ice shelf on the east side of the AP, which sampled a strong downslope wind event. Surface flux measurements over the ice shelf suggest that the sensible heat provided by the warm jets would be likely to be negated by latent heat losses from ice ablation. The main cause of any ice melting was likely to be due to shortwave radiation input. However, the warming from the jets is still likely to be important by acting as an on/off control for melting by keeping air temperatures above zero. In addition, the dryness of the winds is likely to prevent cloud cover and thus maximize exposure of the ice shelf to solar energy input. This case study has been modeled using the WRF mesoscale model. The model reproduces the strong downslope winds seen by the aircraft with good comparisons of wind speed and temperature profiles through the wind jets. Further comparisons to surface station data have allowed progress towards achieving the best set up of the model for this case. The modeling agrees with the results of the aircraft study in suggesting that solar radiation input is likely to provide the largest amount of energy for
The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.
2002-12-01
The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.
Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.
2016-12-01
Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song
2018-05-01
The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.
Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather.
MacLean, Heidi J; Penick, Clint A; Dunn, Robert R; Diamond, Sarah E
2017-07-01
The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3-5°C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants. Experimental winter warming significantly altered thermal performance for running speed at high (26 and 36°C) but not low test temperatures (6 and 16°C). Although we saw little differentiation in thermal performance at cooler test temperatures, we saw a marked increase in running speed at the hotter test temperatures for ants that experienced warmer winters compared with those that experienced cooler winters. Our results provide evidence that overwintering temperatures can substantially influence organismal performance, and suggest that we cannot ignore overwintering effects when forecasting organismal responses to environmental changes in temperature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John
2016-10-17
To examine global warming's effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (R h ), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on R h . The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on R h (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C -1 . Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C -1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C -1 that we calculated using the annual temperature-efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thirumalai, K.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Okumura, Y.; Deser, C.
2016-12-01
In April 2016, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSA) experienced monthly mean surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, caused widespread discomfort, and greatly exacerbated energy consumption. First, we reveal a robust relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and April SATs in the region, demonstrating that virtually all extreme, hot Aprils occur during El Niño years. Next, we show that MSA has experienced continuous warming since the early 20th century. To quantify the relative contributions of this long-term warming trend and the 2015 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs, we use observations and a large ensemble of global warming simulations, performed with a model that realistically simulates this El-Niño-MSA link. We find robust evidence that the "post-Niño" hot Aprils are being exacerbated by global warming, with this effect being pronounced for the 2016 event, where we estimate 24% was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. Despite an increased likelihood of hot Aprils during El Niño years in the future, our findings suggest that these extremes can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance.
Deacclimation may be crucial for winter survival of cereals under warming climate.
Rapacz, Marcin; Jurczyk, Barbara; Sasal, Monika
2017-03-01
Climate warming can change the winter weather patterns. Warmer temperatures during winter result in a lower risk of extreme freezing events. On the other hand the predicted warm gaps during winter will decrease their freezing tolerance. Both contradict effects will affect winter survival but their resultant effect is unclear. In this paper, we demonstrate that climate warming may result in a decrease in winter survival of plants. A field study of winterhardiness of common wheat and triticale was established at 11 locations and repeated during three subsequent winters. The freezing tolerance of the plants was studied after controlled cold acclimation and de-acclimation using both plant survival analysis and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. Cold deacclimation resistance was shown to be independent from cold acclimation ability. Further, cold deacclimation resistance appeared to be crucial for overwintering when deacclimation conditions occurred in the field. The shortening of uninterrupted cold acclimation may increase cold deacclimation efficiency, which could threaten plant survival during warmer winters. Measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence transient showed some differences triggered by freezing before and after deacclimation. We conclude that cold deacclimation resistance should be considered in the breeding of winter cereals and in future models of winter damage risk. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
Warm-up: A Psychophysiological Phenomenon.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lopez, Richard; Dausman, Cindy
1981-01-01
The effectiveness of warm-up as an aid to athletic performance is related to an interaction of both psychological and physiological factors. Benefits of warm-up include an increase in blood and muscle temperatures and an increased muscular endurance. (JN)
Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming
Hanna, Elizabeth G.; Tait, Peter W.
2015-01-01
Human thermoregulation and acclimatization are core components of the human coping mechanism for withstanding variations in environmental heat exposure. Amidst growing recognition that curtailing global warming to less than two degrees is becoming increasing improbable, human survival will require increasing reliance on these mechanisms. The projected several fold increase in extreme heat events suggests we need to recalibrate health protection policies and ratchet up adaptation efforts. Climate researchers, epidemiologists, and policy makers engaged in climate change adaptation and health protection are not commonly drawn from heat physiology backgrounds. Injecting a scholarly consideration of physiological limitations to human heat tolerance into the adaptation and policy literature allows for a broader understanding of heat health risks to support effective human adaptation and adaptation planning. This paper details the physiological and external environmental factors that determine human thermoregulation and acclimatization. We present a model to illustrate the interrelationship between elements that modulate the physiological process of thermoregulation. Limitations inherent in these processes, and the constraints imposed by differing exposure levels, and thermal comfort seeking on achieving acclimatization, are then described. Combined, these limitations will restrict the likely contribution that acclimatization can play in future human adaptation to global warming. We postulate that behavioral and technological adaptations will need to become the dominant means for human individual and societal adaptations as global warming progresses. PMID:26184272
Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming.
Hanna, Elizabeth G; Tait, Peter W
2015-07-15
Human thermoregulation and acclimatization are core components of the human coping mechanism for withstanding variations in environmental heat exposure. Amidst growing recognition that curtailing global warming to less than two degrees is becoming increasing improbable, human survival will require increasing reliance on these mechanisms. The projected several fold increase in extreme heat events suggests we need to recalibrate health protection policies and ratchet up adaptation efforts. Climate researchers, epidemiologists, and policy makers engaged in climate change adaptation and health protection are not commonly drawn from heat physiology backgrounds. Injecting a scholarly consideration of physiological limitations to human heat tolerance into the adaptation and policy literature allows for a broader understanding of heat health risks to support effective human adaptation and adaptation planning. This paper details the physiological and external environmental factors that determine human thermoregulation and acclimatization. We present a model to illustrate the interrelationship between elements that modulate the physiological process of thermoregulation. Limitations inherent in these processes, and the constraints imposed by differing exposure levels, and thermal comfort seeking on achieving acclimatization, are then described. Combined, these limitations will restrict the likely contribution that acclimatization can play in future human adaptation to global warming. We postulate that behavioral and technological adaptations will need to become the dominant means for human individual and societal adaptations as global warming progresses.
Respiratory muscle specific warm-up and elite swimming performance.
Wilson, Emma E; McKeever, Tricia M; Lobb, Claire; Sherriff, Tom; Gupta, Luke; Hearson, Glenn; Martin, Neil; Lindley, Martin R; Shaw, Dominick E
2014-05-01
Inspiratory muscle training has been shown to improve performance in elite swimmers, when used as part of routine training, but its use as a respiratory warm-up has yet to be investigated. To determine the influence of inspiratory muscle exercise (IME) as a respiratory muscle warm-up in a randomised controlled cross-over trial. A total of 15 elite swimmers were assigned to four different warm-up protocols and the effects of IME on 100 m freestyle swimming times were assessed.Each swimmer completed four different IME warm-up protocols across four separate study visits: swimming-only warm-up; swimming warm-up plus IME warm-up (2 sets of 30 breaths with a 40% maximum inspiratory mouth pressure load using the Powerbreathe inspiratory muscle trainer); swimming warm-up plus sham IME warm-up (2 sets of 30 breaths with a 15% maximum inspiratory mouth pressure load using the Powerbreathe inspiratory muscle trainer); and IME-only warm-up. Swimmers performed a series of physiological tests and scales of perception (rate of perceived exertion and dyspnoea) at three time points (pre warm-up, post warm-up and post time trial). The combined standard swimming warm-up and IME warm-up were the fastest of the four protocols with a 100 m time of 57.05 s. This was significantly faster than the IME-only warm-up (mean difference=1.18 s, 95% CI 0.44 to 1.92, p<0.01) and the swim-only warm-up (mean difference=0.62 s, 95% CI 0.001 to 1.23, p=0.05). Using IME combined with a standard swimming warm-up significantly improves 100 m freestyle swimming performance in elite swimmers.
Moving in extreme environments: open water swimming in cold and warm water
2014-01-01
Open water swimming (OWS), either ‘wild’ such as river swimming or competitive, is a fast growing pastime as well as a part of events such as triathlons. Little evidence is available on which to base high and low water temperature limits. Also, due to factors such as acclimatisation, which disassociates thermal sensation and comfort from thermal state, individuals cannot be left to monitor their own physical condition during swims. Deaths have occurred during OWS; these have been due to not only thermal responses but also cardiac problems. This paper, which is part of a series on ‘Moving in Extreme Environments’, briefly reviews current understanding in pertinent topics associated with OWS. Guidelines are presented for the organisation of open water events to minimise risk, and it is concluded that more information on the responses to immersion in cold and warm water, the causes of the individual variation in these responses and the precursors to the cardiac events that appear to be the primary cause of death in OWS events will help make this enjoyable sport even safer. PMID:24921042
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qian, C.; Wang, J.; Dong, S.; Yin, H.; Burke, C.; Ciavarella, A.; Dong, B.; Freychet, N.; Lott, F. C.; Tett, S. F.
2017-12-01
It is controversial whether Asian mid-latitude cold surges are becoming more likely as a consequence of Arctic warming. Here, we present an event attribution study in mid-latitude Eastern China. A strong cold surge occurred during 21st-25th January 2016 affecting most areas of China, especially Eastern China. Daily minimum temperature (Tmin) records were broken at many stations. The area averaged anomaly of Tmin over the region (20-44N, 100-124E) for this pentad was the lowest temperature recorded since modern meteorological observations started in 1960. This cold event occurred in a background of the warmest winter Tmin since 1960. Given the vast damages caused by this extreme cold event in Eastern China and the previous mentioned controversy, it is compelling to investigate how much anthropogenic forcing agents have affected the probability of cold events with an intensity equal to or larger than the January 2016 extreme event. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre system for Attribution of extreme weather and Climate Events and station observations to investigate the effect of anthropogenic forcings on the likelihood of such a cold event. Anthropogenic influences are estimated to have reduced the likelihood of an extreme cold event in mid-winter with the intensity equal to or stronger than the record of 2016 in Eastern China by about 2/3.
Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao
2008-01-01
This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.
Evidence for early postglacial warming in Mount Field National Park, Tasmania
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rees, Andrew B. H.; Cwynar, Les C.
2010-02-01
Situated between the Western Pacific Warm Pool to the north and Antarctica to the south, Tasmania is an ideal location to study both postglacial and Holocene paleoclimates. Few well-dated, quantitative temperature reconstructions exist for the region so that important questions about the occurrence and magnitude of events, such as the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Younger Dryas, in Tasmania remain unanswered. Here, we provide chironomid-based reconstructions of temperature of the warmest quarter (TWARM) for two small subalpine lakes, Eagle and Platypus Tarns, Mount Field National Park. Shortly after deglaciation, TWARM reached modern values by approximately 15 000 cal a BP and remained high until 13 000 cal a BP after which temperatures began to cool steadily, reaching a minimum by 11 100-10 000 cal a BP. These results are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions from south of Tasmania but are in stark contrast to temperature inferences drawn from vegetation reconstructions based on pollen data that indicate cool initial temperatures followed by a broad warm period between 11 600-6800 cal a BP (10 000-6000 14C a BP). The chironomid record broadly matches the summer insolation curve whereas the vegetation record and associated climate inferences mirror winter insolation. The Antarctic Cold Reversal and Younger Dryas cold events are not evident in the chironomid-inferred temperatures, but the Antarctic Cold Reversal is evident in the loss-on-ignition curves.
Gravitational waves from warm inflation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xi-Bin; Wang, He; Zhu, Jian-Yang
2018-03-01
A fundamental prediction of inflation is a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of gravitational wave. The features of such a signal provide extremely important information about the physics of the early universe. In this paper, we focus on several topics about warm inflation. First, we discuss the stability property about warm inflation based on nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, which gives more fundamental physical illustrations to thermal property of such model. Then, we calculate the power spectrum of gravitational waves generated during warm inflation, in which there are three components contributing to such spectrum: thermal term, quantum term, and cross term combining the both. We also discuss some interesting properties about these terms and illustrate them in different panels. As a model different from cold inflation, warm inflation model has its individual properties in observational practice, so we finally give a discussion about the observational effect to distinguish it from cold inflation.
Triffterer, Lydia; Marhofer, Peter; Sulyok, Irene; Keplinger, Maya; Mair, Stefan; Steinberger, Markus; Klug, Wolfgang; Kimberger, Oliver
2016-01-01
Perioperative hypothermia is a common problem, challenging the anesthesiologist and influencing patient outcome. Efficient and safe perioperative active warming is therefore paramount; yet, it can be particularly challenging in pediatric patients. Forced-air warming technology is the most widespread patient-warming option, with most forced-air warming systems consisting of a forced-air blower connected to a compressible, double layer plastic and/or a paper blanket with air holes on the patient side. We compared an alternative, forced-air, noncompressible, under-body patient-warming mattress (Baby/Kleinkinddecke of MoeckWarmingSystems, Moeck und Moeck GmbH; group MM) with a standard, compressible warming mattress system (Pediatric Underbody, Bair Hugger, 3M; group BH). The study included 80 patients aged <2 years, scheduled for elective surgery. After a preoperative core temperature measurement, the patients were placed on the randomized mattress in the operation theater and 4 temperature probes were applied rectally and to the patients' skin. The warming devices were turned on as soon as possible to the level for pediatric patients as recommended by the manufacturer (MM = 40°C, BH = 43°C). There was a distinct difference of temperature slope between the 2 groups: core temperatures of patients in the group MM remained stable and mean of the core temperature of patients in the group BH increased significantly (difference: +1.48°C/h; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-2.15°C/h; P = 0.0001). The need for temperature downregulation occurred more often in the BH group, with 22 vs 7 incidences (RR, 3.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-6.52; P = 0.0006). Skin temperatures were all lower in the MM group. Perioperatively, no side effects related to a warming device were observed in any group. Both devices are feasible choices for active pediatric patient warming, with the compressible mattress system being better suited to increase core temperature. The use of lower pediatric
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sedlar, J.
2015-12-01
Atmospheric advection of heat and moisture from lower latitudes to the high-latitude Arctic is a critical component of Earth's energy cycle. Large-scale advective events have been shown to make up a significant portion of the moist static energy budget of the Arctic atmosphere, even though such events are typically infrequent. The transport of heat and moisture over surfaces covered by ice and snow results in dynamic changes to the boundary layer structure, stability and turbulence, as well as to diabatic processes such as cloud distribution, microphysics and subsequent radiative effects. Recent studies have identified advection into the Arctic as a key mechanism for modulating the melt and freeze of snow and sea ice, via modification to all-sky longwave radiation. This paper examines the radiative impact during summer of such Arctic advective events at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), considering also the important role they play for the surface energy budget. Using infrared sounder measurements from the AIRS satellite, the summer frequency of significantly stable and moist advective events from 2003-2014 are characterized; justification of AIRS profiles over the Arctic are made using radiosoundings during a 3-month transect (ACSE) across the Eastern Arctic basin. One such event was observed within the East Siberian Sea in August 2014 during ACSE, providing in situ verification on the robustness and capability of AIRS to monitor advective cases. Results will highlight the important surface warming aspect of stable, moist instrusions. However a paradox emerges as such events also result in a cooling at the TOA evident on monthly mean TOA radiation. Thus such events have a climatic importance over ice and snow covered surfaces across the Arctic. ERA-Interim reanalyses are examined to provide a longer term perspective on the frequency of such events as well as providing capability to estimate meridional fluxes of moist static energy.
Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.
Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and
Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming
Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.
2016-09-26
Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and
Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John
2016-01-01
To examine global warming’s effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on Rh. The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on Rh (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C−1. Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C−1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C−1 that we calculated using the annual temperature–efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest. PMID:27748424
Southern Hemisphere and deep-sea warming led deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise and tropical warming.
Stott, Lowell; Timmermann, Axel; Thunell, Robert
2007-10-19
Establishing what caused Earth's largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by approximately 2 degrees C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by approximately 1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming.
Does warm debris dust stem from asteroid belts?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Geiler, Fabian; Krivov, Alexander V.
2017-06-01
Many debris discs reveal a two-component structure, with a cold outer and a warm inner component. While the former are likely massive analogues of the Kuiper belt, the origin of the latter is still a matter of debate. In this work, we investigate whether the warm dust may be a signature of asteroid belt analogues. In the scenario tested here, the current two-belt architecture stems from an originally extended protoplanetary disc, in which planets have opened a gap separating it into the outer and inner discs which, after the gas dispersal, experience a steady-state collisional decay. This idea is explored with an analytic collisional evolution model for a sample of 225 debris discs from a Spitzer/IRS catalogue that are likely to possess a two-component structure. We find that the vast majority of systems (220 out of 225, or 98 per cent) are compatible with this scenario. For their progenitors, original protoplanetary discs, we find an average surface density slope of -0.93 ± 0.06 and an average initial mass of (3.3^{+0.4}_{-0.3})× 10^{-3} solar masses, both of which are in agreement with the values inferred from submillimetre surveys. However, dust production by short-period comets and - more rarely - inward transport from the outer belts may be viable, and not mutually excluding, alternatives to the asteroid belt scenario. The remaining five discs (2 per cent of the sample: HIP 11486, HIP 23497, HIP 57971, HIP 85790, HIP 89770) harbour inner components that appear inconsistent with dust production in an 'asteroid belt.' Warm dust in these systems must either be replenished from cometary sources or represent an aftermath of a recent rare event, such as a major collision or planetary system instability.
What happens during vocal warm-up?
Elliot, N; Sundberg, J; Gramming, P
1995-03-01
Most singers prefer to warm up their voices before performing. Although the subjective effect is often considerable, the underlying physiological effects are largely unknown. Because warm-up tends to increase blood flow in muscles, it seems likely that vocal warm-up might induce decreased viscosity in the vocal folds. According to the theory of vocal-fold vibration, such a decrease should lead to a lower phonation threshold pressure. In this investigation the effect of vocal warm-up on the phonation threshold pressure was examined in a group of male and female singers. The effect varied considerably between subjects, presumably because the vocal-fold viscosity was not a dominating factor for the phonation-threshold pressure.
Atmospheric Rivers and floods in Southern California: Climate forcing of extreme weather events.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hendy, I. L.; Heusser, L. E.; Napier, T.; Pak, D. K.
2016-12-01
Southern California has a Mediterranean type climate characterized by warm dry summers associated with the North Pacific High pressure system and cool, wet winters primarily associated in low pressure systems originating in the high latitude North Pacific. Extreme precipitation, however, is connected to strong zonal flow that brings warm, moist tropical across the Pacific (AKA atmospheric river). Here we present a revised record of flood events in Santa Barbara Basin that have been linked to atmospheric rivers focusing on events associated with transitions between known climate events using new radiocarbon chronology and detailed sediment composition. Flood events identified by homogenous grey layers are present throughout the Holocene with a recurrence every 110 years, but are particularly common (85 year recurrence) between 4,200 and 2,000 years BP. Interval between 6,500 and 4,500 commonly associated with dry conditions in California was associated with fewer flood events (recurrence interval increased to 176 years). Intervals of high lake levels in California associated with pluvials appear to be associated with more frequent extreme precipitation events. The longest recurrence interval (535 years) is associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The season in which the atmospheric river occurs was estimated using the relative abundance of pollen within the flood deposit. The 735 and 1270 C.E. flood events are associated with May-June flowering vegetation, while the most recent events (1861-2 and 1761 C.E.) were associated with November to March flowering vegetation. This agrees with the December-January rainfall records of the historic 1861-62. We conclude the frequency of extreme precipitation events appears to increase as climate cools (e.g. the Little Ice Age).
Hakeem, Abdul R; Birks, Theodore; Azeem, Qasim; Di Franco, Filippo; Gergely, Szabolcs; Harris, Adrian M
2016-06-01
There is conflicting evidence for the use of warmed, humidified carbon dioxide (CO2) for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Few studies have reported less post-operative pain and analgesic requirement when warmed CO2 was used. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to analyse the literature on the use of warmed CO2 in comparison to standard temperature CO2 during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Systematic review and meta-analysis carried out in line with the PRISMA guidelines. Primary outcomes of interest were post-operative pain at 6 h, day 1 and day 2 following laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Secondary outcomes were analgesic usage and drop in intra-operative core body temperature. Standard Mean Difference (SMD) was calculated for continuous variables. Six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria (n = 369). There was no significant difference in post-operative pain at 6 h [3 RCTs; SMD = -0.66 (-1.33, 0.02) (Z = 1.89) (P = 0.06)], day 1 [4 RCTs; SMD = -0.51 (-1.47, 0.44) (Z = 1.05) (P = 0.29)] and day 2 [2 RCTs; SMD = -0.96 (-2.30, 0.37) (Z = 1.42) (P = 0.16)] between the warmed CO2 and standard CO2 group. There was no difference in analgesic usage between the two groups, but pooled analysis was not possible. Two RCTs reported significant drop in intra-operative core body temperature, but there were no adverse events related to this. This review showed no difference in post-operative pain and analgesic requirements between the warmed and standard CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Currently there is not enough high quality evidence to suggest routine usage of warmed CO2 for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2015 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Mennecart, Bastien
2015-01-01
The Earth already experienced numerous episodes of global warming and cooling. One of the latest impressive events of temperature rising was the Late Oligocene Warming that occurred around 25 Mya. An increase of the marine temperature of 2 to 4°C has been observed in a short time interval. In Europe, this major climatic event can be correlated to the continental faunal turnover "Microbunodon Event". This event is marked by a huge faunal turnover (40% of the ungulate fauna during the first 500k years) and environmental changes. Drier conditions associated to the appearance of the seasonality lead to new environmental conditions dominated by wooded savannahs. This is correlated to a major arrival of Asiatic immigrants. Moreover, from a homogenous fauna during the main part of the Oligocene, local climatic variations between the European Western coast and the more central Europe could have provided faunal regionalism during the latest Oligocene and earliest Miocene. Considering the ruminants, this event is the major ever known for this group in Europe. A total renewal at the family level occurred. Thanks to a precise stratigraphic succession, major evolutionary elements are highlighted. Typical Oligocene species, mainly Tragulina, were adapted to wooded environments and were leaves/fruits eaters. They disappeared at the end of MP27 or the early MP28. This corresponds to the appearance of the Asiatic immigrants. The Tragulina (Lophiomerycidae, Bachitheriidae) and stem Pecora gave way to more derived stem and maybe crown Pecora (e.g. "Amphitragulus", Babameryx, Dremotherium). These newcomers were adapted to more open environments and mixed feeding. The disappearance of the Tragulina is probably linked to environmental and vegetation changes, and competition. They give way to more derived ruminants having a more efficient metabolism in drier conditions and a better assimilation of less energetic food.
Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments.
Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S
2018-02-01
The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas-including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics-still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events.
Northern control of Southern Source Water deglacial circulation in Rockall Trough, N.E. Atlantic.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCave, I. N. N.; Hibbert, F. D.; Channell, J. E. T.; Austin, W. E. N.
2014-12-01
Core MD04-2822 from northern Rockall Trough at 2300 m water depth contains a high resolution record of changes in the vigour of the deep circulation determined by variation in the Sortable Silt mean size (SS) over the period 21-0 ka (LGM to present). The record has excellent age control from C-14 and correlation of Np(s) to Greenland ice cores (NGRIP GICC05 scale) (Hibbert et al., 2010, JQS, Austin & Hibbert, 2012, QSR). The record displays a slowdown in deep circulation from 20 to 17.5ka, a faster H-1a and slower H-1b (16.4-14.7 ka), a faster B-A with evident slowing at Older Dryas and IACP, and slow YD. The Holocene shows slower flows around 8.4-7.5, 6.3-5.5 and 3.5 -2.7 ka as well as the Little Ice Age. The a/b differentiation of the Heinrich event is mirrored by changes in d18O at NGRIP with boundaries at 17.8 and 16.3 ka on GICC05 tentatively correlated with H-1b. Benthic Carbon isotope (d13C) variations and values are very similar to those found at 3150 m water depth off Portugal (Skinner & Shackleton, 2004, PaleO), where Shackleton et al (2000, PaleO) show that the water mass is strongly SSW influenced in both warm and cold periods. At the present day there is evidence of SSW (LDW of McCartney, 1992 Progr in O) in Rockall Trough from silicate values greater than those of NE Atlantic Deep water of northern overflow origin. We suggest that bottom water in the Trough during deglaciation contained a major component of southern origin. This is consistent with suggested upper bounds of SSW at ~2000 m elsewhere in the N. Atlantic. This water appears to have responded dynamically to northern hemisphere climatic forcing, although supplied from around Antarctica. In this, its behaviour is similar to the changes in circulation vigour recorded by Pa/Th at 4500 m on Bermuda Rise that must also have been dominated by SSW (McManus et al., 2004, Nature) The κARM/κ grain size parameter reflecting fine magnetite grain size proxy which is sensitive to grain sizes well below
Understanding the Warm Water Volume Precursor of ENSO Events and its Interdecadal Variation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neske, S.; McGregor, S.
2018-02-01
A wind forced ocean model is used to decompose the equatorial Pacific warm water volume (WWV) between 1980 and 2016 into two components: the (i) adjusted wind response, which is found by letting the model evolve unforced for three months, and (ii) instantaneous wind response, which are the instantaneous WWV changes due to Ekman transports. Our results suggest that roughly half of WWV variability is only as predictable as the winds that drive the instantaneous change. Separate examinations of pre-2000 and post-2000 periods reveal (i) nearly equal importance of instantaneous and adjusted responses for the pre-2000 period and (ii) dominance of the instantaneous response during the post-2000 period, which is most apparent during the recharged phase. This increasing instantaneous contribution prominence explains the post-2000 reduction in WWV/El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature lead times (from six to nine months pre-2000 down to three months post-2000) and is consistent with the reduction in post-2000 El Niño-Southern Oscillation prediction skill.
Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem
2018-06-01
We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.
Recognizing the Palynological Signal of Heinrich Event H1
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Delusina, I.
2017-12-01
One of the most challenging intervals for paleo-vegetation reconstruction of the post-Glacial environment is the transition that occurred at the beginning and the end of Heinrich event H1 and that stretched up to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. The main ambiguity is related to the magnitude and timing of H1 and the non-linear response of the Earth system to the Heinrich event itself in different geographical locations. We consider the H1 event as the entire transition interval since 18 to 14.5 Kya. The main problem that arises is the uncertainty in the interpretation of the pollen assemblages due to their mixed nature, particularly the presence of both "warm" and "cold" pollen. We have compared the pollen signal from the beginning to the end of the H1 event along a tropic to subpolar transect, using data from our own studies and the published literature. We find that despite regional peculiarities, most of the pollen assemblages demonstrate a similar sequence of patterns. One of the most prominent common features, seen at the beginning and the end of H1, is the appearance of saw-tooth like shapes in the variables of the pollen diagram, independent of location, vegetation composition and other factors. The most noticeable "saw-tooth" occurs after H1, between about 14 and 12 Kya, the interval that roughly corresponds to the Bølling/Allerød. The common features of a "saw-tooth" for both the beginning and the end of the H1 event, appear in this order: 1) increase in ferns, usually coinciding with or followed by an increased percentage of conifer pollen. 2) The beginning of dominance of xerophyte assemblages, again as a "saw-tooth" which lasts for about 2 Kya. 3) Each "saw-tooth", no matter where it occurs, terminates with the beginning of an increase in arboreal (or steppe) vegetation. For all of the different sites, the isotopic evidence is that this was a period of warming, but the pollen records tell a more complex story. Despite the local individualities of
Arctic Security in a Warming World
2010-03-01
2009). 3 Map based on: “Northwest Passage - Map of Arctic Sea Ice: Global Warming is Opening Canada’s Arctic” http://geology.com/articles/northwest...War College, February 17, 2009) 3. 5 Scott G. Borgerson, “Arctic Meltdown: the Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming ”, Foreign Affairs...april/kirkpatrick.pdf (accessed February 10, 2010). 45 Thomas R. McCarthy, Jr., Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic, Strategy
Gebauer, Jochen E; Haddock, Geoffrey; Broemer, Philip; von Hecker, Ulrich
2013-11-01
Why do some autobiographical events feel as if they happened yesterday, whereas others feel like ancient history? Such temporal distance perceptions have surprisingly little to do with actual calendar time distance. Instead, psychologists have found that people typically perceive positive autobiographical events as overly recent, while perceiving negative events as overly distant. The origins of this temporal distance bias have been sought in self-enhancement strivings and mood congruence between autobiographical events and chronic mood. As such, past research exclusively focused on the evaluative features of autobiographical events, while neglecting semantic features. To close this gap, we introduce a semantic congruence model. Capitalizing on the Big Two self-perception dimensions, Study 1 showed that high semantic congruence between recalled autobiographical events and trait self-perceptions render the recalled events subjectively recent. Specifically, interpersonally warm (competent) individuals perceived autobiographical events reflecting warmth (competence) as relatively recent, but warm (competent) individuals did not perceive events reflecting competence (warmth) as relatively recent. Study 2 found that conscious perceptions of congruence mediate these effects. Studies 3 and 4 showed that neither mood congruence nor self-enhancement account for these results. Study 5 extended the results from the Big Two to the Big Five self-perception dimensions, while affirming the independence of the semantic congruence model from evaluative influences. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.
Ocean warming, a rapid distributional shift, and the hybridization of a coastal fish species.
Potts, Warren M; Henriques, Romina; Santos, Carmen V; Munnik, Kate; Ansorge, Isabelle; Dufois, Francois; Booth, Anthony J; Kirchner, Carola; Sauer, Warwick H H; Shaw, Paul W
2014-09-01
Despite increasing awareness of large-scale climate-driven distribution shifts in the marine environment, no study has linked rapid ocean warming to a shift in distribution and consequent hybridization of a marine fish species. This study describes rapid warming (0.8 °C per decade) in the coastal waters of the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone over the last three decades and a concomitant shift by a temperature sensitive coastal fish species (Argyrosomus coronus) southward from Angola into Namibia. In this context, rapid shifts in distribution across Economic Exclusive Zones will complicate the management of fishes, particularly when there is a lack of congruence in the fisheries policy between nations. Evidence for recent hybridization between A. coronus and a congener, A. inodorus, indicate that the rapid shift in distribution of A. coronus has placed adults of the two species in contact during their spawning events. Ocean warming may therefore revert established species isolation mechanisms and alter the evolutionary history of fishes. While the consequences of the hybridization on the production of the resource remain unclear, this will most likely introduce additional layers of complexity to their management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1976-01-01
Comfort Products, Inc. was responsible for the cold weather glove and thermal boots, adapted from a spacesuit design that kept astronauts warm or cool in the temperature extremes of the Apollo Moon Mission. Gloves and boots are thermally heated. Batteries are worn inside wrist of glove or sealed in sole of skiboot and are rechargeable hundreds of times. They operate flexible resistance circuit which is turned on periodically when wearer wants to be warm.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pendall, E.; Carrillo, Y.; Dijkstra, F. A.
2017-12-01
Future climate will include warmer conditions but impacts on soil C cycling remain uncertain and so are the potential warming-driven feedbacks. Net impacts will depend on the balance of effects on microbial activity and plant inputs. Soil depth is likely to be a critical factor driving this balance as it integrates gradients in belowground biomass, microbial activity and environmental variables. Most empirical studies focus on one soil layer and soil C forecasting relies on broad assumptions about effects of depth. Our limited understanding of the use of available C by soil microbes under climate change across depths is a critical source of uncertainty. Long-term labelling of plant biomass with C isotopic tracers in intact systems allows us to follow the dynamics of different soil C pools including the net accumulation of newly fixed C and the net loss of native C. These can be combined with concurrent observations of microbial use of C pools to explore the impacts of depth on the relationships between plant inputs and microbial C use. We evaluated belowground biomass, in-situ root decomposition and incorporation of plant-derived C into soil C and microbial C at 0-5 cm and 5-15 cmover 7 years at the Prairie Heating And CO2 Enrichment experiment. PHACE was a factorial manipulation of CO2 and warming in a native mixed grass prairie in Wyoming, USA. We used the continuous fumigation with labelled CO2 in the elevated CO2 treatments to study the C dynamics under unwarmed and warmed conditions. Shallower soils had three times the density of biomass as deeper soils. Warming increased biomass in both depths but this effect was weaker in deeper soils. Root litter mass loss in deeper soil was one third that of the shallow and was not affected by warming. Consistent with biomass distribution, incorporation of plant-derived C into soil and microbial C was lower in deeper soils and higher with warming. However, in contrast to the effect of warming on biomass, the effect of
Warm Absorber Diagnostics of AGN Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kallman, Timothy
Warm absorbers and related phenomena are observable manifestations of outflows or winds from active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have great potential value. Understanding AGN outflows is important for explaining the mass budgets of the central accreting black hole, and also for understanding feedback and the apparent co-evolution of black holes and their host galaxies. In the X-ray band warm absorbers are observed as photoelectric absorption and resonance line scattering features in the 0.5-10 keV energy band; the UV band also shows resonance line absorption. Warm absorbers are common in low luminosity AGN and they have been extensively studied observationally. They may play an important role in AGN feedback, regulating the net accretion onto the black hole and providing mechanical energy to the surroundings. However, fundamental properties of the warm absorbers are not known: What is the mechanism which drives the outflow?; what is the gas density in the flow and the geometrical distribution of the outflow?; what is the explanation for the apparent relation between warm absorbers and the surprising quasi-relativistic 'ultrafast outflows' (UFOs)? We propose a focused set of model calculations that are aimed at synthesizing observable properties of warm absorber flows and associated quantities. These will be used to explore various scenarios for warm absorber dynamics in order to answer the questions in the previous paragraph. The guiding principle will be to examine as wide a range as possible of warm absorber driving mechanisms, geometry and other properties, but with as careful consideration as possible to physical consistency. We will build on our previous work, which was a systematic campaign for testing important class of scenarios for driving the outflows. We have developed a set of tools that are unique and well suited for dynamical calculations including radiation in this context. We also have state-of-the-art tools for generating synthetic spectra, which are
Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.
2017-12-01
Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).
Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krishnan, R.; Sabin, T. P.; Vellore, R.; Mujumdar, M.; Sanjay, J.; Goswami, B. N.; Hourdin, F.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Terray, P.
2016-08-01
Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.
Warming trends: Adapting to nonlinear change
Jonko, Alexandra K.
2015-01-28
As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise, some regions are expected to warm more than others. Research suggests that whether warming will intensify or slow down over time also depends on location.
Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.
Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B
2010-10-07
Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.
Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mauritsen, Thorsten
2016-12-01
The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.
Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for B lling-Aller d Warming
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Erickson, David J
2009-01-01
We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Boelling-Alleroed (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition ismore » caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO{sub 2} forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.« less
[Startup mechanism of moxibustion warming and dredging function].
Huang, Kaiyu; Liang, Shuang; Sun, Zheng; Zhang, Jianbin
2017-09-12
With "moxibustion" and "warm stimulation" as the keywords, the literature on moxibustion mechanism of warming and dredging from June 1st, 1995 to June 1st, 2016 was collected from PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wanfang database. The startup mechanism of moxibustion warming and dredging function was analyzed in terms of moxibustion warming stimulation. The results were found that moxibustion was based on local rising temperature of acupoint. It activated local specific receptors, heat sensitive immune cells, heat shock proteins and so on to start the warming and dredging function and produce various local effects. The warming stimulation signals as well as subsequent effects through nerve and body fluid pathways induced the effects of further specific target organs and body systems.
Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming.
Huey, Raymond B; Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Vitt, Laurie J; Hertz, Paul E; Alvarez Pérez, Héctor J; Garland, Theodore
2009-06-07
Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.
Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming
Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore
2009-01-01
Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762
Analysis of data from spacecraft (stratospheric warmings)
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1974-01-01
The details of the stratospheric warming processes as to time, area, and intensity were established, and the warmings with other terrestrial and solar phenomena occurring at satellite platform altitudes, or observable from satellite platforms, were correlated. Links were sought between the perturbed upper atmosphere (mesosphere and thermosphere) and the stratosphere that might explain stratospheric warmings.
Impact of SST Anomaly Events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "Summer Prediction Barrier"
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Yujie; Duan, Wansuo
2018-04-01
The "summer prediction barrier" (SPB) of SST anomalies (SSTA) over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) refers to the phenomenon that prediction errors of KOE-SSTA tend to increase rapidly during boreal summer, resulting in large prediction uncertainties. The fast error growth associated with the SPB occurs in the mature-to-decaying transition phase, which is usually during the August-September-October (ASO) season, of the KOE-SSTA events to be predicted. Thus, the role of KOE-SSTA evolutionary characteristics in the transition phase in inducing the SPB is explored by performing perfect model predictability experiments in a coupled model, indicating that the SSTA events with larger mature-to-decaying transition rates (Category-1) favor a greater possibility of yielding a more significant SPB than those events with smaller transition rates (Category-2). The KOE-SSTA events in Category-1 tend to have more significant anomalous Ekman pumping in their transition phase, resulting in larger prediction errors of vertical oceanic temperature advection associated with the SSTA events. Consequently, Category-1 events possess faster error growth and larger prediction errors. In addition, the anomalous Ekman upwelling (downwelling) in the ASO season also causes SSTA cooling (warming), accelerating the transition rates of warm (cold) KOE-SSTA events. Therefore, the SSTA transition rate and error growth rate are both related with the anomalous Ekman pumping of the SSTA events to be predicted in their transition phase. This may explain why the SSTA events transferring more rapidly from the mature to decaying phase tend to have a greater possibility of yielding a more significant SPB.
Coastal Permafrost Bluff Response to Summer Warming, Barter Island, NE Alaska
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Richmond, B. M.; Gibbs, A.; Johnson, C. D.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Oberle, F. J.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Lorenson, T. D.
2016-12-01
Observations of warming air and sea temperatures in the Arctic are leading to longer periods of permafrost thaw and ice-free conditions during summer, which lead to increased exposure to coastal storm surge, wave impacts, and heightened erosion. Recently collected air and soil (bluff) temperatures, atmospheric pressure, water levels, time-lapse photography, aerial photography and satellite imagery, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys were used to document coastal bluff morphological response to seasonal warming. Data collection instruments and time-lapse cameras installed overlooking a bluff face on the exposed open ocean coast and within an erosional gully were used to create an archive of hourly air temperature, pressure, bluff morphology, and sea-state conditions allowing for documentation of individual bluff failure events and coincident meteorology. Permafrost boreholes as deep as 6 m from the upper bluff tundra surface were fitted with thermistor arrays to record a high resolution temperature record that spanned an initial frozen state, a summer thaw cycle, and subsequent re-freezing. Late summer ERT surveys were used to link temperature observations to subsurface electrical resistivities and active-layer dynamics. Preliminary observations suggest surface warming and active layer growth are responsible for a significant amount of bluff face failures that are exacerbated in the shore perpendicular gullies and along the exposed ocean coast. Electrical resistivity surveys and geochemical data reveal concentrated brines at depth, which likely contribute to enhanced, localized erosion in weakened strata.
Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?
Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert
2015-06-01
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.
Winter season mortality: will climate warming bring benefits?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kinney, Patrick L.; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Le Tertre, Alain; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert
2015-06-01
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.
Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.
2013-12-01
Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.
Blodgett Forest Warming Experiment 1
Pries, Caitlin Hicks (ORCID:0000000308132211); Castanha, Cristina; Porras, Rachel; Torn, Margaret
2017-03-24
Carbon stocks and density fractions from soil pits used to characterize soils of the Blodgett warming experiment as well as gas well CO2, 13C, and 14C data from experimental plots. The experiment consisted of 3 control and heated plot pairs. The heated plots are warmed +4°C above the control from 10 to 100 cm.
Mixing processes following the final stratospheric warming
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hess, Peter G.
1991-01-01
An investigation is made of the dynamics responsible for the mixing and dissolution of the polar vortex during the final stratospheric warmings. The dynamics and transport during a Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric warming are simulated via a GCM and an associated offline N2O transport model. The results are compared with those obtained from LIMS data for the final warming of 1979, with emphasis on the potential vorticity evolution in the two datasets, the modeled N2O evolution, and the observed O3 evolution. Following each warming, the remnants of the originally intact vortex are found to gradually homogenize with the atmosphere at large. Two processes leading to this homogenization are identified following the final warmings, namely, the potential vorticity field becomes decorrelated from that of the chemical tracer, and the vortex remnants begin to tilt dramatically in a vertical direction.
Spatial and Temporal Changes in Coral Community Responses to Ocean Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barkley, H.; Cohen, A. L.
2016-02-01
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature is projected to rise 2-3°C by the end of this century, fueling efforts to identify thermally-tolerant reef communities that have the best chance of surviving future climate change. We used skeletal indicators of thermal stress in massive Porites corals collected across the Palau archipelago to document spatial and temporal changes in community-scale tolerance to anomalous warm events associated with the 1998 and 2010 Pacific ENSOs. Within communities where bleaching was documented by visual surveys, we find a strong correlation between percent bleaching and the proportion of surviving Porites colonies exhibiting skeletal density anomalies or "stress bands". Using this relationship, we reconstructed the intensity and spatial patterns of bleaching during the 1998 ENSO event when survey data are limited. On exposed barrier reefs and inshore fringing reefs, the proportion of corals with 1998 stress bands (60% and 40% respectively) was consistent with that expected from DHW predictions and post-bleaching surveys. Conversely, in the Rock Island bays, where ambient temperatures were highest, no 1998 stress bands were recorded. However, these corals did respond to the 2010 thermal anomaly with the appearance of stress bands and an abrupt decline in calcification. The reasons for this apparent shift in thermal tolerance in response to the relatively weak 2010 warming are not yet clear. While the interplay of temperature with other environmental variables including light and flow cannot yet be ruled out, stressors associated with an increase in human activities, including tourism, on Palau are also considered.
Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.
2018-01-01
Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.
Leaf Respiratory Acclimation: Magnitude of Acclimation to the Long-term Warming in Tallgrass Prairie
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jung, C. G.; Peng, F.; Luo, Y.
2016-12-01
Plant respiration has a positive response with temperature; hence, the plant under warmer climate makes plant releases more CO2. However, plant leaf can acclimate to the warmer climate so that plant leaf respiratory acclimation contributes less positive feedback between climate warming and ecosystem CO2 release. In order to examine the feedback between ecosystem and evolution of carbon dioxide due to global warming, we conducted the experiment of warming and clipping as mimicking grazing effect in a tall grass prairie in central Oklahoma, US since November 1999. The warming plot's air and soil temperature show 1.1 °C and 2.3 °C higher than ambient, respectively. Since our experiment has been over 16 years, the plot's species compositions and plant richness have changed so far. Most species composition events occurred at the clipping plot; therefore, we selected the plants within unclipped plots to see whether plants that exposed long-term warming, play a role of thermal acclimation and how those major plant species across experimental site possess difference magnitude of acclimation. We have investigated five species, one legume, one forb, and three of C4 grass: Illinois bundle (Desmanthus illinoensis, C3), stiff goldenrod (Solidago rigida, C3), King Ranch bluestem (Bothriochloa ischaemum, C4), Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans, C4), and Little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium, C4). Data has collected from May as the first month of growing season in our field site in 2016. In our results, measurements in +2 °C warming show strong acclimation across the species (185% ±41% s.e.m. among species). The strongest acclimation occurred by stiff goldenrod (309%). The lowest acclimation rate is 51% in Illinois bundle, as well as the partial acclimation. The other three C4 grass species have 188% acclimation rate (±37% s.e.m. among species). Whether different plant species have a different capability of acclimation or respond through different way as shown various
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siddiqui, T. A.; Yamazaki, Y.; Stolle, C.; Lühr, H.; Matzka, J.; Maute, A.; Pedatella, N.
2018-05-01
The lower atmospheric forcing effects on the ionosphere are particularly evident during extreme meteorological events known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). During SSWs, the polar stratosphere and ionosphere, two distant atmospheric regions, are coupled through the SSW-induced modulation of atmospheric migrating and nonmigrating tides. The changes in the migrating semidiurnal solar and lunar tides are the major source of ionospheric variabilities during SSWs. In this study, we use 55 years of ground-magnetometer observations to investigate the composite characteristics of the lunar tide of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) during SSWs. These long-term observations allow us to capture the EEJ lunar tidal response to the SSWs in a statistical sense. Further, we examine the influence of solar flux conditions and the phases of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the lunar tide and find that the QBO phases and solar flux conditions modulate the EEJ lunar tidal response during SSWs in a similar way as they modulate the wintertime Arctic polar vortex. This work provides first evidence of modulation of the EEJ lunar tide due to QBO.
Seagrass ecophysiological performance under ocean warming and acidification.
Repolho, Tiago; Duarte, Bernardo; Dionísio, Gisela; Paula, José Ricardo; Lopes, Ana R; Rosa, Inês C; Grilo, Tiago F; Caçador, Isabel; Calado, Ricardo; Rosa, Rui
2017-02-01
Seagrasses play an essential ecological role within coastal habitats and their worldwide population decline has been linked to different types of anthropogenic forces. We investigated, for the first time, the combined effects of future ocean warming and acidification on fundamental biological processes of Zostera noltii, including shoot density, leaf coloration, photophysiology (electron transport rate, ETR; maximum PSII quantum yield, F v /F m ) and photosynthetic pigments. Shoot density was severely affected under warming conditions, with a concomitant increase in the frequency of brownish colored leaves (seagrass die-off). Warming was responsible for a significant decrease in ETR and F v /F m (particularly under control pH conditions), while promoting the highest ETR variability (among experimental treatments). Warming also elicited a significant increase in pheophytin and carotenoid levels, alongside an increase in carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio and De-Epoxidation State (DES). Acidification significantly affected photosynthetic pigments content (antheraxanthin, β-carotene, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin), with a significant decrease being recorded under the warming scenario. No significant interaction between ocean acidification and warming was observed. Our findings suggest that future ocean warming will be a foremost determinant stressor influencing Z. noltii survival and physiological performance. Additionally, acidification conditions to occur in the future will be unable to counteract deleterious effects posed by ocean warming.
Seagrass ecophysiological performance under ocean warming and acidification
Repolho, Tiago; Duarte, Bernardo; Dionísio, Gisela; Paula, José Ricardo; Lopes, Ana R.; Rosa, Inês C.; Grilo, Tiago F.; Caçador, Isabel; Calado, Ricardo; Rosa, Rui
2017-01-01
Seagrasses play an essential ecological role within coastal habitats and their worldwide population decline has been linked to different types of anthropogenic forces. We investigated, for the first time, the combined effects of future ocean warming and acidification on fundamental biological processes of Zostera noltii, including shoot density, leaf coloration, photophysiology (electron transport rate, ETR; maximum PSII quantum yield, Fv/Fm) and photosynthetic pigments. Shoot density was severely affected under warming conditions, with a concomitant increase in the frequency of brownish colored leaves (seagrass die-off). Warming was responsible for a significant decrease in ETR and Fv/Fm (particularly under control pH conditions), while promoting the highest ETR variability (among experimental treatments). Warming also elicited a significant increase in pheophytin and carotenoid levels, alongside an increase in carotenoid/chlorophyll ratio and De-Epoxidation State (DES). Acidification significantly affected photosynthetic pigments content (antheraxanthin, β-carotene, violaxanthin and zeaxanthin), with a significant decrease being recorded under the warming scenario. No significant interaction between ocean acidification and warming was observed. Our findings suggest that future ocean warming will be a foremost determinant stressor influencing Z. noltii survival and physiological performance. Additionally, acidification conditions to occur in the future will be unable to counteract deleterious effects posed by ocean warming. PMID:28145531
Warming set stage for deadly heat wave
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schultz, Colin
2012-04-01
In the summer of 2010, soaring temperatures and widespread forest fires ravaged western Russia, killing 55,000 and causing $15 billion in economic losses. In the wake of the record-setting heat wave, two studies sought to identify the contribution that human activities made to the event. One showed that temperatures seen during the deadly heat wave fell within the bounds of natural variability, while another attributed the heat wave to human activity, arguing that anthropogenic warming increased the chance of record-breaking temperatures occurring. Merging the stances of both studies, Otto et al. sought to show that while human contributions to climate change did not necessarily cause the deadly heat wave, they did play a role in setting the stage for its occurrence. Using an ensemble of climate simulations, the authors assessed the expected magnitude and frequency of an event like the 2010 heat wave under both 1960s and 2000s environmental conditions. The authors found that although the average temperature in July 2010 was 5°C higher than the average July temperature from the past half decade, the deadly heat wave was within the natural variability of 1960s, as well as 2000s, climate conditions
Galápagos coral reef persistence after ENSO warming across an acidification gradient
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Bruckner, A.; Renaud, P.; Kolodziej, G.; Budd, D. A.; Carlton, R.; Glynn, P.
2016-02-01
Anthropogenic CO2 is causing warming and ocean acidification. Coral reefs are being severely impacted, yet confusion lingers regarding how reefs will respond to these stressors over this century. Since the 1982-1983 El Niño-Southern Oscillation warming event, the persistence of reefs around the Galápagos Islands has differed across an acidification gradient. Reefs disappeared where pH < 8.0 and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) ≤ 3 and have not recovered, whereas one reef has persisted where pH > 8.0 and Ωarag > 3. Where upwelling is greatest, calcification by massive Porites is higher than predicted by a published relationship with temperature despite high CO2, possibly due to elevated nutrients. However, skeletal P/Ca, a proxy for phosphate exposure, negatively correlates with density (R = - 0.822, p < 0.0001). We propose that elevated nutrients have the potential to exacerbate acidification by depressing coral skeletal densities and further increasing bioerosion already accelerated by low pH.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chau, J. L.; Hoffmann, P.; Pedatella, N. M.; Janches, D.; Murphy, D. J.; Stober, G.
2015-12-01
From recent ground- and satellite-based observations as well as from model results, it is well known that lunar tide signatures are amplified significantly during northern hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs). Such signatures have been observed in the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere and mesosphere, and at the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) at the northern mid and high latitude mesosphere. More recently, ionospheric signatures at mid-latitudes have been also observed in satellite instruments and such observations are corroborated with model results when the lunar tides are included. From these results (N. Pedatella, personal communication), there is a strong hemispheric asymmetry, where ionospheric perturbations occur primarily in the southern hemisphere. Motivated by these results, in this work we compare the tidal signatures in the MLT region at mid and high latitudes in both hemispheres. We make use of MLT winds obtained with specular meteor radars (SMR) at Juliusruh (54oN), Andøya (69oN), Rio Grande (54oS), and Davis (69oS) around the 2009 and 2013 major SSWs. In addition we complement our studies, with model results from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extended version (WACCM-X) combined with the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) and the inclusions of lunar tides. Besides these results, we present a brief description and preliminary results of our new approach to derive wind fields in the MLT region using multi-static, multi-frequency specular meteor radars, called MMARIA.
Kersting, Diego K; Cebrian, Emma; Casado, Clara; Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Linares, Cristina
2015-12-22
In the current global climate change scenario, stressors overlap in space and time, and knowledge on the effects of their interaction is highly needed to understand and predict the response and resilience of organisms. Corals, among many other benthic organisms, are affected by an increasing number of global change-related stressors including warming and invasive species. In this study, the cumulative effects between warming and invasive algae were experimentally assessed on the temperate reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa. We first investigated the potential local adaptation to thermal stress in two distant populations subjected to contrasting thermal and necrosis histories. No significant differences were found between populations. Colonies from both populations suffered no necrosis after long-term exposure to temperatures up to 29 °C. Second, we tested the effects of the interaction of both warming and the presence of invasive algae. The combined exposure triggered critical synergistic effects on photosynthetic efficiency and tissue necrosis. At the end of the experiment, over 90% of the colonies subjected to warming and invasive algae showed signs of necrosis. The results are of particular concern when considering the predicted increase of extreme climatic events and the spread of invasive species in the Mediterranean and other seas in the future.
Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, Wenling; Hou, Shugui; Hu, Yongyun; Wu, Shuangye
2017-03-01
A reduction in the warming rate for the global surface temperature since the late 1990s has attracted much attention and caused a great deal of controversy. During the same time period, however, most previous studies have reported enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study we further examined the temperature trend of the TP and surrounding areas based on the homogenized temperature records for the period 1980-2014, we found that for the TP regions lower than 4000 m the warming rate has started to slow down since the late 1990s, a similar pattern consistent with the whole China and the global temperature trend. However, for the TP regions higher than 4000 m, this reduction in warming rate did not occur until the mid-2000s. This delayed warming hiatus could be related to changes in regional radiative, energy, and land surface processes in recent years.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.
2016-12-01
Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.
Global Warming: How Much and Why?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lanouette, William
1990-01-01
Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cadieux, Sarah B.; White, Jeffrey R.; Pratt, Lisa M.
2017-02-01
In thermally stratified lakes, the greatest annual methane emissions typically occur during thermal overturn events. In July of 2012, Greenland experienced significant warming that resulted in substantial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and enhanced runoff events. This unusual climate phenomenon provided an opportunity to examine the effects of short-term natural heating on lake thermal structure and methane dynamics and compare these observations with those from the following year, when temperatures were normal. Here, we focus on methane concentrations within the water column of five adjacent small lakes on the ice-free margin of southwestern Greenland under open-water and ice-covered conditions from 2012-2014. Enhanced warming of the epilimnion in the lakes under open-water conditions in 2012 led to strong thermal stability and the development of anoxic hypolimnia in each of the lakes. As a result, during open-water conditions, mean dissolved methane concentrations in the water column were significantly (p < 0.0001) greater in 2012 than in 2013. In all of the lakes, mean methane concentrations under ice-covered conditions were significantly (p < 0.0001) greater than under open-water conditions, suggesting spring overturn is currently the largest annual methane flux to the atmosphere. As the climate continues to warm, shorter ice cover durations are expected, which may reduce the winter inventory of methane and lead to a decrease in total methane flux during ice melt. Under open-water conditions, greater heat income and warming of lake surface waters will lead to increased thermal stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia, which will consequently result in increased water column inventories of methane. This stored methane will be susceptible to emissions during fall overturn, which may result in a shift in greatest annual efflux of methane from spring melt to fall overturn. The results of this study suggest that interannual variation in ground-level air
Heinrich Events: An Unintentional Discovery And Possible Consequences For The Future
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heinrich, H.
2017-12-01
Heinrich Events: An Unintentional Discovery And Its Possible Consequences For The FutureIn the mid 80ties an environmental impact assessment in relation to deep-sea dumping of medium-to-high level radioactive waste was carried out in the eastern margins of the Mid Atlantic Ridge next to the Bay of Biscaye. In one of the box corers recovered for radionuclide analysis a volcanic rock was found that triggered interest because of an unexpected geochemical feature on its surface. Subsequent investigations on the bordering sediment layer revealed hints on a massive ice rafting event possibly released from rapidly collapsing circum-Atlantic ice shields. The search for more of these events in numerous sediment cores exhibited a total of 11 layers since the end of the Saalian/Illinoian glaciation (OIS 6/5 to 2/1). The six events identified in the period OIS 4 to 2 indicated oceanographic conditions in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean that were different to those that prevailed during most time of this glacial period. Later, several authors proposed mechanisms that could have triggered the collapses, e.g. the Binge-Purge model (MacAyeal, 1993) or, access of relatively warm water to the grounding lines in conjunction with isostatic movements (Bassis, 2017). One of the consequences of rapid ice shield collapses is sea level rise. Paleo data report rates of up to several meters per century over a period of several centuries. The process described by Bassis et al. resembles to what nowadays can be observed along the ice margins of Greenland and the Antarctic where (man-made) warmed ocean water attacks the grounding lines. If this initiates something similar to a Heinrich event this is of widespread consequence for coasts, from displacement of populations to marine pollution. Thus, research on past Heinrich Events is important for understanding the future developments of the existing ice shields and climate change.
Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis.
Claar, Danielle C; Szostek, Lisa; McDevitt-Irwin, Jamie M; Schanze, Julian J; Baum, Julia K
2018-01-01
Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events.
Global patterns and impacts of El Niño events on coral reefs: A meta-analysis
Szostek, Lisa; McDevitt-Irwin, Jamie M.; Schanze, Julian J.; Baum, Julia K.
2018-01-01
Impacts of global climate change on coral reefs are being amplified by pulse heat stress events, including El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite reports of extensive coral bleaching and up to 97% coral mortality induced by El Niño events, a quantitative synthesis of the nature, intensity, and drivers of El Niño and La Niña impacts on corals is lacking. Herein, we first present a global meta-analysis of studies quantifying the effects of El Niño/La Niña-warming on corals, surveying studies from both the primary literature and International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS) Proceedings. Overall, the strongest signal for El Niño/La Niña-associated coral bleaching was long-term mean temperature; bleaching decreased with decreasing long-term mean temperature (n = 20 studies). Additionally, coral cover losses during El Niño/La Niña were shaped by localized maximum heat stress and long-term mean temperature (n = 28 studies). Second, we present a method for quantifying coral heat stress which, for any coral reef location in the world, allows extraction of remotely-sensed degree heating weeks (DHW) for any date (since 1982), quantification of the maximum DHW, and the time lag since the maximum DHW. Using this method, we show that the 2015/16 El Niño event instigated unprecedented global coral heat stress across the world's oceans. With El Niño events expected to increase in frequency and severity this century, it is imperative that we gain a clear understanding of how these thermal stress anomalies impact different coral species and coral reef regions. We therefore finish with recommendations for future coral bleaching studies that will foster improved syntheses, as well as predictive and adaptive capacity to extreme warming events. PMID:29401493
Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.; ...
2017-05-19
In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and largemore » ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.
In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and largemore » ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.« less
Climatic changes resulting from mass extinctions at the K-T boundary (and other bio-events)
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rampino, Michael R.; Volk, Tyler
1988-01-01
The mass extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary include about 90 percent of marine calcareous nannoplankton (coccoliths), and carbon-isotope data show that marine primary productivity was drastically reduced for about 500,000 years after the boundary event, the so-called Strangelove Ocean effect. One result of the elimination of most marine phytoplankton would have been a severe reduction in production of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), a biogenic gas that is believed to be the major precursor of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) over the oceans. A drastic reduction in marine CCN should lead to a cloud canopy with significantly lower reflectivity, and hence cause a significant warming at the earth's surface. Calculations suggest that, all other things being held constant, a reduction in CCN of more than 80 percent (a reasonable value for the K-T extinctions) could have produced a rapid global warming of 6 C or more. Oxygen-isotope analyses of marine sediments, and other kinds of paleoclimatic data, have provided for a marked warming, and a general instability of climate coincident with the killoff of marine plankton at the K-T boundary. Similar reductions in phytoplankton abundance at other boundaries, as indicated by marked shifts in carbon-isotope curves, suggest that severe temperature changes may have accompanied other mass extinctions, and raises the intriguing possibility that the extinction events themselves could have contributed to the climatic instabilities at critical bio-events in the geologic record.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Eichman, Julia Christensen; Brown, Jeff A.
1994-01-01
Presents information and data on an experiment designed to test whether different atmosphere compositions are affected by light and temperature during both cooling and heating. Although flawed, the experiment should help students appreciate the difficulties that researchers face when trying to find evidence of global warming. (PR)
21 CFR 864.9205 - Blood and plasma warming device.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR
2010-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Blood and plasma warming device. 864.9205 Section... Blood and Blood Products § 864.9205 Blood and plasma warming device. (a) Nonelectromagnetic blood or plasma warming device—(1) Identification. A nonelectromagnetic blood and plasma warming device is a...
21 CFR 864.9205 - Blood and plasma warming device.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR
2012-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Blood and plasma warming device. 864.9205 Section... Blood and Blood Products § 864.9205 Blood and plasma warming device. (a) Nonelectromagnetic blood or plasma warming device—(1) Identification. A nonelectromagnetic blood and plasma warming device is a...
21 CFR 864.9205 - Blood and plasma warming device.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR
2011-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Blood and plasma warming device. 864.9205 Section... Blood and Blood Products § 864.9205 Blood and plasma warming device. (a) Nonelectromagnetic blood or plasma warming device—(1) Identification. A nonelectromagnetic blood and plasma warming device is a...
21 CFR 864.9205 - Blood and plasma warming device.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR
2013-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Blood and plasma warming device. 864.9205 Section... Blood and Blood Products § 864.9205 Blood and plasma warming device. (a) Nonelectromagnetic blood or plasma warming device—(1) Identification. A nonelectromagnetic blood and plasma warming device is a...
21 CFR 864.9205 - Blood and plasma warming device.
Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR
2014-04-01
... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Blood and plasma warming device. 864.9205 Section... Blood and Blood Products § 864.9205 Blood and plasma warming device. (a) Nonelectromagnetic blood or plasma warming device—(1) Identification. A nonelectromagnetic blood and plasma warming device is a...
Observational constraints on monomial warm inflation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Visinelli, Luca, E-mail: Luca.Visinelli@studio.unibo.it
Warm inflation is, as of today, one of the best motivated mechanisms for explaining an early inflationary period. In this paper, we derive and analyze the current bounds on warm inflation with a monomial potential U ∝ φ {sup p} , using the constraints from the PLANCK mission. In particular, we discuss the parameter space of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r and the potential coupling λ of the monomial warm inflation in terms of the number of e-folds. We obtain that the theoretical tensor-to-scalar ratio r ∼ 10{sup −8} is much smaller than the current observational constrain r ∼< 0.12, despitemore » a relatively large value of the field excursion Δ φ ∼ 0.1 M {sub Pl}. Warm inflation thus eludes the Lyth bound set on the tensor-to-scalar ratio by the field excursion.« less
Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.
2018-01-01
The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas—including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics—still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events. PMID:29457133
Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo
2015-02-01
When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.
Assessing the Impacts of Mid-latitude Circulation Changes under +1.5ºC and +2ºC Warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Michel, C.; Bethke, I.; Seland Graff, L.; Iversen, T.; Li, C.; Mitchell, D.; Zappa, G.
2017-12-01
Understanding the mid-latitude circulation and its response to global warming is critical for accurately assessing the ensuing regional impacts. Uncertainty in the response arises from uncertainty in emissions scenarios, the climate model used, and the large internal variability of the mid-latitudes. Here, we investigate the latter two sources of uncertainty in the forced response to weak warming using multi-model large ensembles. The experiments are part of the project "Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Implications" (HAPPI), following up on the Paris Agreement of 2015 (Mitchell et al., 2017). With 100 to 501 members from at least five state-of-the-art models, the experiment set allows us to estimate the regional impacts associated with robust responses of the mid-latitude circulation under +1.5ºC and +2ºC warming, and to partition the sources of uncertainty using an analysis of variance method (Samson et al., 2013). In the Northern Hemisphere, the upper-level and eddy-driven jets, as well as the storm track, shift in the warming experiments but the response can be nonlinear with warming. Robust stationary wave changes are seen in North Pacific and North America. Internal variability dominates the spread in the responses, although model spread contributes substantially over Europe, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific jet entrance. We show how these responses impact temperature and precipitation in specific areas, such as western Europe and North America. Finally, we assess the changes in frequency and duration of blocking events. Results from this study will allow us to better quantify weather-related impacts and risks in a warming climate, and help evaluate how the projected changes may affect society on climatological time scales.
Chen, Xiaopeng; Wang, Genxu; Zhang, Tao; Mao, Tianxu; Wei, Da; Song, Chunlin; Hu, Zhaoyong; Huang, Kewei
2017-12-01
Uncertainties in the seasonal changes of greenhouse gases (GHG) fluxes in wetlands limit our accurate understanding of the responses of permafrost ecosystems to future warming and increased nitrogen (N) deposition. Therefore, in an alpine swamp meadow in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, a simulated warming with N fertilization experiment was conducted to investigate the key GHG fluxes (ecosystem respiration [Re], CH 4 and N 2 O) in the early (EG), mid (MG) and late (LG) growing seasons. Results showed that warming (6.2 °C) increased the average seasonal Re by 30.9% and transformed the alpine swamp meadow from a N 2 O sink to a source, whereas CH 4 flux was not significantly affected. N fertilization (4 g N m -2 a -1 ) alone had no significant effect on the fluxes of GHGs. The interaction of warming and N fertilization increased CH 4 uptake by 69.6% and N 2 O emissions by 26.2% compared with warming, whereas the Re was not significantly affected. During the EG, although the soil temperature sensitivity of the Re was the highest, the effect of warming on the Re was the weakest. The primary driving factor for Re was soil surface temperature, whereas soil moisture controlled CH 4 flux, and the N 2 O flux was primarily affected by rain events. The results indicated: (i) increasing N deposition has both positive and negative feedbacks on GHG fluxes in response to climate warming; (ii) during soil thawing process at active layer, low temperature of deep frozen soils have a negative contribution to Re in alpine ecosystems; and (iii) although these alpine wetland ecosystems are buffers against increased temperature, their feedbacks on climate change cannot be ignored because of the large soil organic carbon pool and high temperature sensitivity of the Re. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Robertson, F. R.; Fitzjarrald, D. E.; Sohn, B.-J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The da Silva, Young and Levitus Surface Marine Atlas, based on observations from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) Release 1, has been used to investigate the relationship between evaporation and sea-surface temperature (SST) over the global oceans. For the period 1950 to 1987 SST, surface latent heat flux, and other related variables have been filtered to minimize data uncertainties and to focus upon interannual variations associated with warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) ENSO events. Compositing procedures have enabled identification of systematic variations in latent heat fluxes accompanying these events and the relationship to spatial anomalies in ocean surface wind speed and humidity. The evaporation response associated with ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability is systematic in nature and composed of offsetting contributions from the surface wind and humidity variations. During warm events exceeding 1.0 S.D. delta SST, increases in the surface humidity deficit, delta(qs-qa), between the surface and 2m height dominate regions of positive SST anomalies and lead to increases in evaporation of almost 2 Wm (exp -2) at deltaSST = 0.23 K. Despite the increases in specific humidity, relative humidity decreases slightly in regions of elevated SSTs. For the most part, variations in wind speed are consistent with previous investigations. Weakening of the equatorial easterlies (and generation of westerlies) between 160 degrees E and 140 degrees W dominates during the early phases of warm events. Elevated wind speeds in adjacent subtropical regions and in the eastern equatorial Pacific subsequently develop too. The net contribution of these winds, which reflect adjustments in Hadley and Walker circulation components is toward reduced evaporation. Results for cold periods are approximately similar, but opposite in sign to warm events, though evidence of different temporal evolution is noted.
Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves for U.S. Cities in a Warming Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte; Vahedifard, Farshid; Cheng, Linyin; Lima, Carlos
2017-04-01
Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of infrastructures and natural slopes. Here we employ daily precipitation data from historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on future climatic model projections. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, U.S cities may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequently, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation.
Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.
Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto
2017-05-03
Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
Supercontinental warming of the mantle at the origin of gigantic flood basalts
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coltice, N.; Phillips, B. R.; Bertrand, H.; Ricard, Y.; Rey, P.
2006-12-01
Continents episodically cluster together into a supercontinent, eventually breaking up with intense magmatic activity supposedly causedby mantle plumes. The break-up of Pangea, the last supercontinent, was accompanied by the emplacement of the largest known continental flood basalt, the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, causing massive extinctions at the Triassic/Jurassic boundary. However, there is little support for a plume origin for this catastrophic event. On the basis of 2D and 3D spherical convection modelling in a internally heated mantle, we show that continental aggregation leads to large-scale melting without requiring the involvement of plumes. When only internal heat sources in the mantle are considered, the formationof a supercontinent causes the enlargement of the wavelength of the flow and a subcontinental warming as large as 100^{\\mboxo}C. This temperature increase may lead to large- scale melting without the involvment of plumes. Our results suggest the existence of two distinct types of continental flood basalts, caused by plume or by supercontinental warming. We review some potential candidates for our proposed model.
Possible shift in the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship under future global warming
Azad, Sarita; Rajeevan, M.
2016-01-01
EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian monsoon rainfall are known to have an inverse relationship, which we have observed in the rainfall spectrum exhibiting a spectral dip in 3–5 y period band. It is well documented that El Nino events are known to be associated with deficit rainfall. Our analysis reveals that this spectral dip (3–5 y) is likely to shift to shorter periods (2.5–3 y) in future, suggesting a possible shift in the relationship between ENSO and monsoon rainfall. Spectral analysis of future climate projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models are employed in order to corroborate our findings. Change in spectral dip speculates early occurrence of drought events in future due to multiple factors of global warming. PMID:26837459