Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

2010-05-01

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive model operation, experience and forecasting strategy differs between responsible forecasting offices. Warning is based on model outputs interpretation by hydrologists-forecaster. Warning hit rate reached 0.60 for threshold set to lowest flood stage of which 0.11 was underestimation of flood degree (miss 0.22, false alarm 0.28). Critical success index of model forecast was 0.34, while the same criteria for warning reached 0.55. We assume that the increase accounts not only to change of scale from single forecasting point to region for warning, but partly also to forecaster's added value. There is no official warning strategy preferred in the Czech Republic (f.e. tolerance towards higher false alarm rate). Therefore forecaster decision and personal strategy is of great importance. Results show quite successful warning for 1st flood level exceedance, over-warning for 2nd flood level, but under-warning for 3rd (highest) flood level. That suggests general forecaster's preference of medium level warning (2nd flood level is legally determined to be the start of the flood and flood protection activities). In conclusion human forecaster's experience and analysis skill increases flood warning performance notably. However society preference should be specifically addressed in the warning strategy definition to support forecaster's decision making.

Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

PubMed

Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

2015-03-01

Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting failure to quit smoking after exposure to pictorial cigarette pack warnings among employees in Thailand.

PubMed

Sujirarat, Dusit; Silpasuwan, Pimpan; Viwatwongkasem, Chukiat; Sirichothiratana, Nithat

2011-07-01

This study was carried out to determine whether health warning pictures(HWP) affect smoking cessation using a structured equation model for intending-to-quit smokers in work places. Data from a 1-year longitudinal followup of attempt-to-quit employees was obtained to determine if pack warnings affect tobacco cessation rates. Stratified simple random sampling, and Structured Equation Modeling (SEM) were employed. Approximately 20% of intending-to-quit smokers were successful. The integrated model, combining internal, interpersonal factors and health warning pictures as external factors, fit the fail to quit pattern of the model. Having a smoking father was the most significant proximate indicator linked with failure to quit. Although HWL pictures were an external factor in the decision to stop smoking, the direct and indirect causes of failure to quit smoking were the influence of the family members. Fathers contributed to the success or failure of smoking cessation in their children by having an influence on the decision making process. Future HWP should include information about factors that stimulate smokers to quit successfully. The role model of a father on quitting is also important.

Emotion in the Law and the Lab: The Case of Graphic Cigarette Warnings

PubMed Central

Peters, Ellen; Evans, Abigail T.; Hemmerich, Natalie; Berman, Micah

2017-01-01

The decision in RJ Reynolds vs. FDA (2012) to invalidate FDA’s proposed graphic health warnings was based in part on the reasoning that the proposed graphic warnings cued emotional responses and therefore could not be considered “factual.” However, this reasoning demonstrated the courts’ fundamental misunderstanding of current behavioral-science research. In contrast to the courts’ artificial separation of emotions from fact, we synthesize and interpret relevant research in basic decision sciences and describe an evidence-based characterization of how emotions influence consumer decision making through multiple mechanisms. We then explore how behavioral research gets “lost in translation” in the legal process and recommend ways that behavioral scientists can work with attorneys to remedy this problem. In order for science-based tobacco regulation to survive legal challenges from the tobacco industry, courts must have access to and be able to understand and apply the relevant research. Accordingly, behavioral laboratory researchers must consider the courts as an additional audience when designing research and reporting results. Researchers wishing to influence policy should also work closely with public health lawyers to have the greatest impact on the legal system. PMID:29057296

People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

2009-04-01

In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III): from concept to action: 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. Geneva, Switzerland: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (2005) : Report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005. Geneva, Switzerland, Secretariat, World Conference on Disaster Reduction. INTER-AGENCY SECRETARIAT OF THE ISDR & GLOBAL PLATFORM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (2007): Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Geneva, UN, ISDR.

Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

2015-12-01

Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

Developmental differences in false-event rejection: Effects of memorability-based warnings.

PubMed

Ghetti, Simona; Castelli, Paola

2006-08-01

The present study investigated the development of the memorability-based strategy, a metacognitive process through which individuals reject the occurrence of false events if they do not remember the events and they expect them to be highly memorable. Previous research found that only older children spontaneously use this strategy. In the present study, we examined whether providing children with relevant information about expected event-memorability and inferences derived from it induced strategy use. Children aged 5, 7, and 9 (n = 144) were asked about true and false (high- and low-memorability) autobiographical events. Participants were either interviewed according to the standard "lost-in-the-mall" procedure, or were additionally provided with warnings. Warnings were either congruent or incongruent with assessments and decision processes involved in the strategy use. Results showed that receiving memorability-congruent warnings increased false-event rejection rates in 7- and 9-year-olds, but not in 5-year-olds. However, only older children were more likely to reject high-memorability compared with low-memorability false events. Developmental trajectories and factors affecting reliance on the memorability-based strategy are discussed.

Assessing Mental Models of Emergencies Through Two Knowledge Elicitation Tasks.

PubMed

Whitmer, Daphne E; Sims, Valerie K; Torres, Michael E

2017-05-01

The goals of this study were to assess the risk identification aspect of mental models using standard elicitation methods and how university campus alerts were related to these mental models. People fail to follow protective action recommendations in emergency warnings. Past research has yet to examine cognitive processes that influence emergency decision-making. Study 1 examined 2 years of emergency alerts distributed by a large southeastern university. In Study 2, participants listed emergencies in a thought-listing task. Study 3 measured participants' time to decide if a situation was an emergency. The university distributed the most alerts about an armed person, theft, and fire. In Study 2, participants most frequently listed fire, car accident, heart attack, and theft. In Study 3, participants quickly decided a bomb, murder, fire, tornado, and rape were emergencies. They most slowly decided that a suspicious package and identify theft were emergencies. Recent interaction with warnings was only somewhat related to participants' mental models of emergencies. Risk identification precedes decision-making and applying protective actions. Examining these characteristics of people's mental representations of emergencies is fundamental to further understand why some emergency warnings go ignored. Someone must believe a situation is serious to categorize it as an emergency before taking the protective action recommendations in an emergency warning. Present-day research must continue to examine the problem of people ignoring warning communication, as there are important cognitive factors that have not yet been explored until the present research.

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

2012-04-01

Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

2010-05-01

Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning context has been worked out. The generated results contribute significantly in the fields of (1) warning decision and warning levels, (2) warning dissemination and warning message content, (3) early warning chain planning, (4) increasing response capabilities and protective systems, (5) emergency relief and (6) enhancing communities' awareness and preparedness towards tsunami threats. Additionally examples will be given on the potentials of an operational use of risk information in early warning systems as first experiences exist for the tsunami early warning center in Jakarta, Indonesia. Beside this the importance of linking national level early warning information with tsunami risk information available at the local level (e.g. linking warning message information on expected intensity with respective tsunami hazard zone maps at community level for effective evacuation) will be demonstrated through experiences gained in three pilot areas in Indonesia. The presentation seeks to provide new insights on benefits using risk information in early warning and will provide further evidence that practical use of risk information is an important and indispensable component of end-to-end early warning.

Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

2011-12-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process, NIDIS is working with existing regional and local networks to develop outlook forums as part of an integrated process that involves closer coordination of drought monitoring among federal, state, and local groups; a research component that can address gaps in understanding that are identified in the outlook forum process; a drought information portal (www.drought.gov) for improving communication; an education and outreach component that improves understanding to apply the information; and close coordination with the preparedness community that includes state and local planners for improved mainstreaming of the information into decisions and policies. These components allow for a mutual learning process that encourages critical assessment of the information, builds trust and identifies how information is used to reduce vulnerability and risk associated with the impacts of drought. This process also identifies the key contacts in the region that can maximize dissemination of the information including local media, and provides an ongoing dialogue that allows for feedback and improvement of the process.

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Adrian

2010-01-01

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

A Paradox of Power: Voices of Warning and Reason in the Geosciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Douglas

As a culture, we are faced with a series of increasingly complex environmental problems. As geoscientists, we are often asked to assume the role of technical experts to provide guidance or solutions to these difficult dilemmas. Unfortunately, the political, social, economic, and judicial aspects of environmental management often require geoscientists to advocate choices or provide definitive answers that are in conflict with our training as never-ending hypothesis testers and unbiased observers of nature.A Paradox of Power: Voices of Warning and Reason in the Geosciences addresses this topic by providing a collection of works that highlights various discrepancies between standard scientific procedures and the public decision-making process. The book presents a range of views and examples that provides geoscientists with a background on the issues surrounding the use of their expertise and analyses in typical law and policy decisions.

Student Workshops for Severe Weather Warning Decision Making using AWIPS-2 at the University of Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwink, A. B.; Morris, D.; Ware, P. J.; Ernst, S.; Holcomb, B.; Riley, S.; Hardy, J.; Mullens, S.; Bowlan, M.; Payne, C.; Bates, A.; Williams, B.

2016-12-01

For several years, employees at the Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma (OU) that are affiliated with Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) of the National Weather Service (NWS) provided training simulations to students from OU's School of Meteorology (SoM). These simulations focused on warning decision making using Dual-Pol radar data products in an AWIPS-1 environment. Building on these previous experiences, CIMMS/WDTD recently continued the collaboration with the SoM Oklahoma Weather Lab (OWL) by holding a warning decision workshop simulating a NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) experience. The workshop took place in the WDTD AWIPS-2 computer laboratory with 25 AWIPS-2 workstations and the WES-2 Bridge (Weather Event Simulator) software which replayed AWIPS-2 data. Using the WES-2 Bridge and the WESSL-2 (WES Scripting Language) event display, this computer lab has the state-of-the-art ability to simulate severe weather events and recreate WFO warning operations. OWL Student forecasters attending the workshop worked in teams in a multi-player simulation of the Hastings, Nebraska WFO on May 6th, 2015, where thunderstorms across the service area produced large hail, damaging winds, and multiple tornadoes. This paper will discuss the design and goals of the WDTD/OWL workshop, as well as plans for holding similar workshops in the future.

An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

PubMed

Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

2013-07-01

An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Stephen

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

PubMed

Albuquerque De Almeida, Fernando; Al, Maiwenn; Koymans, Ron; Caliskan, Kadir; Kerstens, Ankie; Severens, Johan L

2018-04-01

Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. Areas covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. Expert commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

77 FR 19055 - Morgan Olson, LLC, Receipt of Petition for Decision of Inconsequential Noncompliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-29

... noncompliance is that the affected vehicles do not contain a primary door latch system or door closure warning... for either a primary door latch system or door closure warning system applied only to its vehicles... latched position. Nor are these vehicles equipped with a door closure warning system. Rule text: Paragraph...

How do people perceive, understand, and anticipate responding to flash flood risks and warnings? Results from a public survey in Boulder, Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morss, Rebecca E.; Mulder, Kelsey J.; Lazo, Jeffrey K.; Demuth, Julie L.

2016-10-01

This study investigates flash flood forecast and warning communication, interpretation, and decision making, using data from a survey of 418 members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, USA. Respondents to the public survey varied in their perceptions and understandings of flash flood risks in Boulder, and some had misconceptions about flash flood risks, such as the safety of crossing fast-flowing water. About 6% of respondents indicated consistent reversals of US watch-warning alert terminology. However, more in-depth analysis illustrates the multi-dimensional, situationally dependent meanings of flash flood alerts, as well as the importance of evaluating interpretation and use of warning information along with alert terminology. Some public respondents estimated low likelihoods of flash flooding given a flash flood warning; these were associated with lower anticipated likelihood of taking protective action given a warning. Protective action intentions were also lower among respondents who had less trust in flash flood warnings, those who had not made prior preparations for flash flooding, and those who believed themselves to be safer from flash flooding. Additional analysis, using open-ended survey questions about responses to warnings, elucidates the complex, contextual nature of protective decision making during flash flood threats. These findings suggest that warnings can play an important role not only by notifying people that there is a threat and helping motivate people to take protective action, but also by helping people evaluate what actions to take given their situation.

Antidepressant drugs and the risk of suicide in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Isacsson, Göran; Rich, Charles L

2014-04-01

Government agencies have issued warnings about the use of antidepressant medications in children, adolescents, and young adults since 2003. The statements warn that such medications may cause de novo 'suicidality' in some people. This review explores the data on the treatment of depression that led to these warnings and subsequent data that are relevant to the warnings. It also addresses the effectiveness of antidepressant treatment in general and the relationship of suicide rates to antidepressant treatment. It concludes that the decisions for the 'black box' warnings were based on biased data and invalid assumptions. Furthermore, the decisions were unsupported by the observational data regarding suicide in young people that existed in 2003. The following recommendations would seem to follow from these observations. First, drug authorities should re-evaluate the basis for their imposed warnings on antidepressant medicines, and analyze the actual public health consequences the warnings have had. In the absence of substantial evidence supporting the warnings, they should be removed. Second, physicians and other providers with prescription privileges should continue to be educated regarding the importance of aggressively treating depression in young people, using antidepressants when indicated. Third, physicians and other professionals who treat depressed young people must always be aware of the risk of suicide (albeit quite low) and observe them closely for any signs of increased risk of suicide. This is necessary regardless of the type of treatment being provided.

Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can better adapt to different social settings and more efficiently reduce vulnerability.

NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center Pacific Ocean response criteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitmore, P.; Benz, H.; Bolton, M.; Crawford, G.; Dengler, L.; Fryer, G.; Goltz, J.; Hansen, R.; Kryzanowski, K.; Malone, S.; Oppenheimer, D.; Petty, E.; Rogers, G.; Wilson, Jim

2008-01-01

New West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakes occurring in the Pacific basin are presented. Initial warning decisions are based on earthquake location, magnitude, depth, and - dependent on magnitude - either distance from source or precomputed threat estimates generated from tsunami models. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Changes to the previous criteria include: adding hypocentral depth dependence, reducing geographical warning extent for the lower magnitude ranges, setting special criteria for areas not well-connected to the open ocean, basing warning extent on pre-computed threat levels versus tsunami travel time for very large events, including the new advisory product, using the advisory product for far-offshore events in the lower magnitude ranges, and specifying distances from the coast for on-shore events which may be tsunamigenic. This report sets a baseline for response criteria used by the WCATWC considering its processing and observational data capabilities as well as its organizational requirements. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of slumps). As further research and development provides better tsunami source definition, observational data streams, and improved analysis tools, the criteria will continue to adjust. Future lines of research and development capable of providing operational tsunami warning centers with better tools are discussed.

Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.

2003-12-01

Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognizemore » cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.« less

Using the decision ladder to understand road user decision making at actively controlled rail level crossings.

PubMed

Mulvihill, Christine M; Salmon, Paul M; Beanland, Vanessa; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Walker, Guy H; Stanton, Neville A

2016-09-01

Rail level crossings (RLXs) represent a key strategic risk for railways worldwide. Despite enforcement and engineering countermeasures, user behaviour at RLXs can often confound expectations and erode safety. Research in this area is limited by a relative absence of insights into actual decision making processes and a focus on only a subset of road user types. One-hundred and sixty-six road users (drivers, motorcyclists, cyclists and pedestrians) completed a diary entry for each of 457 naturalistic encounters with RLXs when a train was approaching. The final eligible sample comprised 94 participants and 248 encounters at actively controlled crossings where a violation of the active warnings was possible. The diary incorporated Critical Decision Method probe questions, which enabled user responses to be mapped onto Rasmussen's decision ladder. Twelve percent of crossing events were non-compliant. The underlying decision making was compared to compliant events and a reference decision model to reveal important differences in the structure and type of decision making within and between road user groups. The findings show that engineering countermeasures intended to improve decision making (e.g. flashing lights), may have the opposite effect for some users because the system permits a high level of flexibility for circumvention. Non-motorised users were more likely to access information outside of the warning signals because of their ability to achieve greater proximity to the train tracks and the train itself. The major conundrum in resolving these issues is whether to restrict the amount of time and information available to users so that it cannot be used for circumventing the system or provide more information to help users make safe decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The first system demonstrator has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios demonstrating the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC). The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Developments of the system are based to the largest extent on free and open source software (FOSS) components and industry standards. Emphasis has been and will be made on leveraging open source technologies that support mature system architecture models wherever appropriate. All open source software produced is foreseen to be published on a publicly available software repository thus allowing others to reuse results achieved and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. This live demonstration is linked with the talk "TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis" (EGU2012-7275) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.7/ESSI1.7).

Eyewitness lineups: is the appearance-change instruction a good idea?

PubMed

Charman, Steve D; Wells, Gary L

2007-02-01

The Department of Justice's Guide for lineups recommends warning eyewitnesses that the culprit's appearance might have changed since the time of the crime. This appearance-change instruction (ACI) has never been empirically tested. A video crime with four culprits was viewed by 289 participants who then attempted to identify the culprits from four 6-person arrays that either included or did not include the culprit. Participants either received the ACI or not and all were warned that the culprit might or might not be in the arrays. The culprits varied in how much their appearance changed from the video to their lineup arrays, but the ACI did not improve identification decisions for any of the lineups. Collapsed over the four culprits, the ACI increased false alarms and filler identifications but did not increase culprit identifications. The ACI reduced confidence and increased response latency. Two processes that could account for these results are discussed, namely a decision criterion shift and a general increase in ecphoric similarity.

SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, S.

2012-04-01

Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed decisions. The deliverable was compiled with contributions from experts on landslides, monitoring technologies, remote sensing, and social researchers from 16 European institutions. The deliverable addresses one of the main objectives of the SafeLand project, namely to merge experience and expert judgment and create synergies on European level towards guidelines for early warning and to make these results available to end-users and local stakeholders.

Beyond the initial 140 ms, lexical decision and reading aloud are different tasks: An ERP study with topographic analysis.

PubMed

Mahé, Gwendoline; Zesiger, Pascal; Laganaro, Marina

2015-11-15

Most of our knowledge on the time-course of the mechanisms involved in reading derived from electrophysiological studies is based on lexical decision tasks. By contrast, very few ERP studies investigated the processes involved in reading aloud. It has been suggested that the lexical decision task provides a good index of the processes occurring during reading aloud, with only late processing differences related to task response modalities. However, some behavioral studies reported different sensitivity to psycholinguistic factors between the two tasks, suggesting that print processing could differ at earlier processing stages. The aim of the present study was thus to carry out an ERP comparison between lexical decision and reading aloud in order to determine when print processing differs between these two tasks. Twenty native French speakers performed a lexical decision task and a reading aloud task with the same written stimuli. Results revealed different electrophysiological patterns on both waveform amplitudes and global topography between lexical decision and reading aloud from about 140 ms after stimulus presentation for both words and pseudowords, i.e., as early as the N170 component. These results suggest that only very early, low-level visual processes are common to the two tasks which differ in core processes. Taken together, our main finding questions the use of the lexical decision task as an appropriate paradigm to investigate reading processes and warns against generalizing its results to word reading. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Should We Stay Or Should We Go Now? Hazard Warnings, Risk Perception, and Evacuation Decisions at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala During the 2010 Eruption.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lechner, H. N.; Rouleau, M.

2017-12-01

Pacaya volcano, in Guatemala, presents considerable risk to nearby communities and in May 2010, the volcano experienced its largest eruption in more than a decade. The eruption damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes, injured scores of people with one fatality, and prompted the evacuation of approximately 2000 people from several communities. During this eruption crisis, people living within at-risk communities were presented with the choice to evacuate or remain in the hazard zone. Many chose not to leave. Using quantitative methodologies, this research investigates evacuation decisions through causal relationships between hazard warnings, evacuation orders, risk perception, evacuation intention and behavior, and attempts to understand why some people chose to stay in harm's-way. In October 2016, we conducted a door-to-door survey administered to 172 households in eight communities within 5 km of the active vent. Participants were asked to rank factors that influenced their decision to evacuate or not, their level of trust in emergency management agencies, and the intention to evacuate during a future crisis. Initial analysis suggests that many people have confidence in emergency management agencies and information from volcano scientists; however, during the 2010 eruption, warning messages and evacuation orders were based on previous eruption patterns and tephra distribution and therefore disseminated differentially to at-risk communities. This likely delayed evacuation decisions by households in the communities that were most affected by the eruption. The data also suggest that while many households perceive evacuation as the most effective protective action, the perceived risk to one's home and property may play a more important role in the decision making process. We will discuss these results as well as communication strategies between agencies and communities, and how to better facilitate more effective and successful evacuations during future eruption crises at Pacaya volcano.

CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2015-12-01

CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

Interpretation and misinterpretation of warning signage: perceptions of rockfalls in a naturalistic setting.

PubMed

Aucote, Helen M; Miner, Anthony; Dahlhaus, Peter

2012-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the factors relating to non-adherence to warning signs about falling rocks from coastal cliff faces. Face-to-face interviews (n = 62) in a naturalistic setting (in the vicinity of a high-risk rockfall area) were conducted to investigate attention to and comprehension of warning signs, as well as beliefs relating to non-adherence of the signage. It was found that, while most participants could correctly identify the danger in the area and had noticed the warning signage, less than half of the participants could correctly interpret the signage. The perception of danger did not differ significantly between the participants who had, or had not, entered the high-risk zone. Differences in knowledge and beliefs between local residents and visitors to the area were identified. It was concluded that the warning signs did not provide enough detail for people to make informed decisions about safe behaviours. Comprehension of the signage may have been hampered by a lack of prior-knowledge of the particular risk, a failure to think carefully about the situation (i.e. low-effort processing), and the pictorial representation on the signs misleading the participants as to the true danger.

An Operational Perspective of Total Lightning Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nadler, David J.; Darden, Christopher B.; Stano, Geoffrey; Buechler, Dennis E.

2009-01-01

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office, the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition Center at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. One significant technology transfer that has provided immediate benefits to NWS forecast and warning operations is the use of data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array. This network consists of ten VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama and a base station located at the National Space Science and Technology Center. Preliminary investigations done at WFO Huntsville, along with other similar total lightning networks across the country, have shown distinct correlations between the time rate-of-change of total lightning and trends in intensity/severity of the parent convective cell. Since May 2003 when WFO HUN began receiving these data - in conjunction with other more traditional remotely sensed data (radar, satellite, and surface observations) -- have improved the situational awareness of the WFO staff. The use of total lightning information, either from current ground based systems or future space borne instrumentation, may substantially contribute to the NWS mission, by enhancing severe weather warning and decision-making processes. Operational use of the data has been maximized at WFO Huntsville through a process that includes forecaster training, product implementation, and post event analysis and assessments. Since receiving these data, over 50 surveys have been completed highlighting the use of total lightning information during significant events across the Tennessee Valley. In addition, around 150 specific cases of interest have been archived for collaborative post storm analysis. From these datasets, detailed trending information from radar and total lightning can be compared to corresponding damage reports. This presentation will emphasize the effective use of total lightning information in warning decision making along with best practices for implementation of new technologies into operations.

Effect of audio in-vehicle red light-running warning message on driving behavior based on a driving simulator experiment.

PubMed

Yan, Xuedong; Liu, Yang; Xu, Yongcun

2015-01-01

Drivers' incorrect decisions of crossing signalized intersections at the onset of the yellow change may lead to red light running (RLR), and RLR crashes result in substantial numbers of severe injuries and property damage. In recent years, some Intelligent Transport System (ITS) concepts have focused on reducing RLR by alerting drivers that they are about to violate the signal. The objective of this study is to conduct an experimental investigation on the effectiveness of the red light violation warning system using a voice message. In this study, the prototype concept of the RLR audio warning system was modeled and tested in a high-fidelity driving simulator. According to the concept, when a vehicle is approaching an intersection at the onset of yellow and the time to the intersection is longer than the yellow interval, the in-vehicle warning system can activate the following audio message "The red light is impending. Please decelerate!" The intent of the warning design is to encourage drivers who cannot clear an intersection during the yellow change interval to stop at the intersection. The experimental results showed that the warning message could decrease red light running violations by 84.3 percent. Based on the logistic regression analyses, drivers without a warning were about 86 times more likely to make go decisions at the onset of yellow and about 15 times more likely to run red lights than those with a warning. Additionally, it was found that the audio warning message could significantly reduce RLR severity because the RLR drivers' red-entry times without a warning were longer than those with a warning. This driving simulator study showed a promising effect of the audio in-vehicle warning message on reducing RLR violations and crashes. It is worthwhile to further develop the proposed technology in field applications.

Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

2007-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

Software to Facilitate Remote Sensing Data Access for Disease Early Warning Systems

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi; Hu, Jiameng; Snell-Feikema, Isaiah; VanBemmel, Michael S.; Lamsal, Aashis; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Satellite remote sensing produces an abundance of environmental data that can be used in the study of human health. To support the development of early warning systems for mosquito-borne diseases, we developed an open-source, client based software application to enable the Epidemiological Applications of Spatial Technologies (EASTWeb). Two major design decisions were full automation of the discovery, retrieval and processing of remote sensing data from multiple sources, and making the system easily modifiable in response to changes in data availability and user needs. Key innovations that helped to achieve these goals were the implementation of a software framework for data downloading and the design of a scheduler that tracks the complex dependencies among multiple data processing tasks and makes the system resilient to external errors. EASTWeb has been successfully applied to support forecasting of West Nile virus outbreaks in the United States and malaria epidemics in the Ethiopian highlands. PMID:26644779

Principles and methods for ensuring safe operation of high-rise buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korol, Oleg; Kustikova, Yuliya

2018-03-01

The purpose of monitoring the technical condition of high-rise buildings is to prevent possible negative situations leading to significant socio-economic losses by timely warning of the emergence of such situations. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following main tasks, such as: identifying the time and place of origin and development of negative processes that lead to the emergence of an emergency situation; analysis of the possible development of the situation in time; development of management decisions; formation and submission of warning signals; obtaining new knowledge about the operation of the object, the factors of influence on this object, the speed of development of destructive processes. When solving the above problems, an important role is played by constructing an adequate mathematical model of the object, the parameters of which should be calibrated according to the current monitoring results.

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

Drought and coastal ecosystems: an assessment of decision maker needs for information

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Kirstin Dow

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) is in the process of developing drought early warning systems in areas of the U.S. where the development and coordination of drought information is needed. In summer 2012, NIDIS launched a pilot program in North and South Carolina, addressing the uniqueness of drought impacts on coastal ecosystems.

Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.

2008-01-01

Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

Warnings and Human Response in the Oroville Dam Crisis, February 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, J. H.; Mileti, D. S.; Needham, J. T.

2017-12-01

On February 7, 2017, erosion was detected in the primary spillway for Oroville Dam in northern California, causing an elevated concern for the safety of downstream communities. The situation seemed stable until heavy rains on February 11 resulted in the flow of water over the emergency spillway. On February 12, erosion below the emergency spillway was observed. At 4:21 PM on February 12, the Butte County Sheriff issued an evacuation order for "low levels of Oroville and downstream areas". Counties downstream followed with evacuation warnings. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary results of research, conducted for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, on the Oroville event. This investigation is part of a research program designed to collect and analyze data on: 1) The timing of the decisions to order public evacuation warnings including the flow of information between engineers and geologist monitoring the hazard and local officials. 2) The method and timing of the dissemination of those warnings including the diffusion or warning by various communication channels. 3) The interpretation and response of the public to those warnings, including the timing of protective action decisions. The findings from these studies will be incorporated into risk assessment models used in assessing the impacts of dam and levee failures on a national basis.

How much are you prepared to PAY for a forecast?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnal, Louise; Coughlan, Erin; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Bachofen, Carina; van Andel, Schalk Jan

2015-04-01

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts are a crucial element of the decision-making chain in the field of flood prevention. The operational use of probabilistic forecasts is increasingly promoted through the development of new novel state-of-the-art forecast methods and numerical skill is continuously increasing. However, the value of such forecasts for flood early-warning systems is a topic of diverging opinions. Indeed, the word value, when applied to flood forecasting, is multifaceted. It refers, not only to the raw cost of acquiring and maintaining a probabilistic forecasting system (in terms of human and financial resources, data volume and computational time), but also and most importantly perhaps, to the use of such products. This game aims at investigating this point. It is a willingness to pay game, embedded in a risk-based decision-making experiment. Based on a ``Red Cross/Red Crescent, Climate Centre'' game, it is a contribution to the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX). A limited number of probabilistic forecasts will be auctioned to the participants; the price of these forecasts being market driven. All participants (irrespective of having bought or not a forecast set) will then be taken through a decision-making process to issue warnings for extreme rainfall. This game will promote discussions around the topic of the value of forecasts for decision-making in the field of flood prevention.

The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

2010-05-01

The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context. This requires the integration of natural / spatial and social science concepts, methods and data: E.g. a scenario based approach for tsunami inundation modeling was developed to provide decision makers with options to decide up to what level they aim to protect their people and territory, on the contrary household surveys were conducted for the spatial analysis of the evacuation preparedness of the population as a function of place specific hazard, risk, warning and evacuation perception; remote sensing was applied for the spatial analysis (land-use) of the socio-physical conditions of a city and region for evacuation; and existing social / population statistics were combined with land-use data for the precise spatial mapping of the population exposed to tsunami risks. Only by utilizing such a comprehensive assessment approach valuable information for risk governance can be generated. The results are mapped using GIS and designed according to the specific needs of different end-users, such as public authorities involved in the design of warning dissemination strategies, land-use planners (shelter planning, road network configuration) and NGOs mandated to provide education for the general public on tsunami risk and evacuation behavior. The case study of the city of Padang (one of the pilot areas of GITEWS), Indonesia clearly show, that only by intersecting social (vulnerability) and natural hazards research a comprehensive picture on tsunami risk can be provided with which risk governance in the early warning context can be conducted in a comprehensive, systemic and sustainable manner.

Comparison of proposed countermeasures for dilemma zone at signalized intersections based on cellular automata simulations.

PubMed

Wu, Yina; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Ding, Yaoxian; Jia, Bin; Shi, Qi; Yan, Xuedong

2018-07-01

The Type II dilemma zone describes the road segment to a signalized intersection where drivers have difficulties to decide either stop or go at the onset of yellow signal. Such phenomenon can result in an increased crash risk at signalized intersections. Different types of warning systems have been proposed to help drivers make decisions. Although the warning systems help to improve drivers' behavior, they also have several disadvantages such as increasing rear-end crashes or red-light running (RLR) violations. In this study, a new warning system called pavement marking with auxiliary countermeasure (PMAIC) is proposed to reduce the dilemma zone and enhance the traffic safety at signalized intersections. The proposed warning system integrates the pavement marking and flashing yellow system which can provide drivers with better suggestions about stop/go decisions based on their arriving time and speed. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed warning system, this paper presents a cellular automata (CA) simulation study. The CA simulations are conducted for four different scenarios in total, including the typical intersection without warning system, the intersection with flashing green countermeasure, the intersection with pavement marking, and the intersection with the PMAIC warning system. Before the specific CA simulation analysis, a logistic regression model is calibrated based on field video data to predict drivers' general stop/go decisions. Also, the rules of vehicle movements in the CA models under the influence by different warning systems are proposed. The proxy indicators of rear-end crash and potential RLR violations were estimated and used to evaluate safety levels for the different scenarios. The simulation results showed that the PMAIC countermeasure consistently offered best performance to reduce rear-end crash and RLR violation. Meanwhile, the results indicate that the flashing-green countermeasure could not effectively reduce either rear-end crash risk or RLR violations. Also, it is found that the pavement-marking countermeasure has positive effects on reducing the rear-end risk while it may increase the probability of RLR violation. Lastly, the implementation of the proposed warning system is discussed with the consideration of connected-vehicle technology. It is expected that the dilemma zone issues can be efficiently addressed if the proposed countermeasure can be employed within connected vehicle technology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using SMAP data to improve drought early warning over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, N.; Tang, W.

2015-12-01

A drought prone region such as the Great Plains of the United States (US GP) requires credible and actionable drought early warning. Such information cannot simply be extracted from available climate forecasts because of their large uncertainties at regional scales, and unclear connections to the needs of the decision makers. In particular, current dynamic seasonal predictions and climate projections, such as those produced by the NOAA North American Multi-Model Ensemble experiment (NMME) are much more reliable for winter and spring than for the summer season for the US GP. To mitigate the weaknesses of dynamic prediction/projections, we have identified three key processes behind the spring-to-summer dry memory through observational studies, as the scientific basis for a statistical drought early warning system. This system uses percentile soil moisture anomalies in spring as a key input to provide a probabilistic summer drought early warning. The latter outperforms the dynamic prediction over the US Southern Plains and has been used by the Texas state water agency to support state drought preparedness. A main source of uncertainty for this drought early warning system is the soil moisture input obtained from the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS). We are testing use of the beta version of NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture data, along with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and the long-term Essential Climate Variable Soil Moisture (ECV-SM) soil moisture data, to reduce this uncertainty. Preliminary results based on ECV-SM suggests satellite based soil moisture data could improve early warning of rainfall anomalies over the western US GP with less dense vegetation. The skill degrades over the eastern US GP where denser vegetation is found. We evaluate our SMAP-based drought early warning for 2015 summer against observations.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

2017-12-01

A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

Application of the Risk-Based Early Warning Method in a Fracture-Karst Water Source, North China.

PubMed

Guo, Yongli; Wu, Qing; Li, Changsuo; Zhao, Zhenhua; Sun, Bin; He, Shiyi; Jiang, Guanghui; Zhai, Yuanzheng; Guo, Fang

2018-03-01

  The paper proposes a risk-based early warning considering characteristics of fracture-karst aquifer in North China and applied it in a super-large fracture-karst water source. Groundwater vulnerability, types of land use, water abundance, transmissivity and spatial temporal variation of groundwater quality were chosen as indexes of the method. Weights of factors were obtained by using AHP method based on relative importance of factors, maps of factors were zoned by GIS, early warning map was conducted based on extension theory with the help of GIS, ENVI+IDL. The early warning map fused five factors very well, serious and tremendous warning areas are mainly located in northwest and east with high or relatively high transmissivity and groundwater pollutant loading, and obviously deteriorated or deteriorated trend of petroleum. The early warning map warns people where more attention should be paid, and the paper guides decision making to take appropriate protection actions in different warning levels areas.

Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability of snow avalanches) or trigger events (e.g. heavy snow fall) to predict spontaneous hazard events in advance. They encompass regional or national measuring networks and satisfy additional demands such as the standardisation of the measuring stations. The developed classification and the characteristics, which were revealed for each class, yield a valuable input to quantifying the reliability of warning and alarm systems. Importantly, this will facilitate to compare them with well-established standard mitigation measures such as dams, nets and galleries within an integrated risk management approach.

Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

2013-04-01

In December 2004, a multiple hazards event devastated the Tamil Nadu province of India. The Sumatra -Andaman earthquake with a magnitude of Mw=9.1-9.3 caused the Indian Ocean tsunami with wave heights up to 30 m, and flooding that reached up to two kilometers inland in some locations. More than 7,790 persons were killed in the province of Tamil Nadu, with 206 in its capital Chennai. The time lag between the earthquake and the tsunami's arrival in India was over an hour, therefore, if a suitable early warning system existed, a proper means of communicating the warning and shelters existing for people would exist, than while this would not have prevented the destruction of infrastructure, several thousands of human lives would have been saved. India has over forty years of experience in the construction of cyclone shelters. With additional efforts and investment, these shelters could be adapted to other types of hazards such as tsunamis and flooding, as well as the construction of new multi-hazard cyclone shelters (MPCS). It would therefore be possible to mitigate one hazard such as cyclones by the construction of a network of shelters while at the same time adapting these shelters to also deal with, for example, tsunamis, with some additional investment. In this historical case, the failure to consider multiple hazards caused significant human losses. The current paper investigates the patterns of the national decision-making process with regards to multiple hazards mitigation measures and how the presence of behavioral and cognitive biases influenced the perceptions of the probabilities of multiple hazards and the choices made for their mitigation by the national decision-makers. Our methodology was based on the analysis of existing reports from national and international organizations as well as available scientific literature on behavioral economics and natural hazards. The results identified several biases in the national decision-making process when the construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

PubMed

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2012-03-01

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

A Neutral Network based Early Eathquake Warning model in California region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, H.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Early Earthquake Warning systems could reduce loss of lives and other economic impact resulted from natural disaster or man-made calamity. Current systems could be further enhanced by neutral network method. A 3 layer neural network model combined with onsite method was deployed in this paper to improve the recognition time and detection time for large scale earthquakes.The 3 layer neutral network early earthquake warning model adopted the vector feature design for sample events happened within 150 km radius of the epicenters. Dataset used in this paper contained both destructive events and small scale events. All the data was extracted from IRIS database to properly train the model. In the training process, backpropagation algorithm was used to adjust the weight matrices and bias matrices during each iteration. The information in all three channels of the seismometers served as the source in this model. Through designed tests, it was indicated that this model could identify approximately 90 percent of the events' scale correctly. And the early detection could provide informative evidence for public authorities to make further decisions. This indicated that neutral network model could have the potential to strengthen current early warning system, since the onsite method may greatly reduce the responding time and save more lives in such disasters.

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

2014-12-01

Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the concept a whirl and to shape science's future. Further functionality, improvements and possible profound changes have to implemented successively based on the users' evolving needs.

Women and smoking—prices and health warning messages: evidence from Spain.

PubMed

Gil-Lacruz, Ana Isabel; Gil-Lacruz, Marta; Leeder, Stephen

2015-06-01

In Spain, fewer men are smoking every year yet the number of women smokers remains relatively high. This paper examines the impact of two anti-smoking policies (increased prices and obligatory pictorial health warning labels) on womens smoking decisions; generation cohorts are used to elucidate the determinants of those decisions. We have drawn 48,755 observations of women living in Spain from the Spanish National Health Surveys of 2001, 2003, 2006 and 2011. Among the main results, we highlight that belonging to a particular generation modulates the manner in which individual characteristics and tobacco policies determine smoking decisions. For example, women's smoking was not considered as socially acceptable until the 1960s and therefore older women have lower smoking rates. However, for the younger female cohorts (generations X and Y) smoking was seen as an act of rebellion and modernity, so women belonging to these groups, irrespective of educational level, are more likely to smoke. The price of cigarettes and pictorial health warning labels on cigarette packets also influence the smoking behaviour of Spanish women. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community College Faculty Involvement in Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thaxter, Lynn P.; Graham, Steven W.

1999-01-01

Explores community college faculty's perception of their involvement in decision making. Reports the responses of 70 Midwest community college instructors in five areas: finance, instruction, personnel, goals, and students. Finds that respondents feel little sense of decision-making involvement. Warns that presidents may alienate the faculty if…

The role of decision criterion in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false recognition memory: False memory falls and rises as a function of restriction on criterion setting.

PubMed

Jou, Jerwen; Escamilla, Eric E; Arredondo, Mario L; Pena, Liann; Zuniga, Richard; Perez, Martin; Garcia, Clarissa

2018-02-01

How much of the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false memory is attributable to decision criterion is so far a controversial issue. Previous studies typically used explicit warnings against accepting the critical lure to investigate this issue. The assumption is that if the false memory results from using a liberally biased criterion, it should be greatly reduced or eliminated by an explicit warning against accepting the critical lure. Results showed that warning was generally ineffective. We asked the question of whether subjects can substantially reduce false recognition without being warned when the test forces them to make a distinction between true and false memories. Using a two-alternative forced choice in which criterion plays a relatively smaller role, we showed that subjects could indeed greatly reduce the rate of false recognition. However, when the forced-choice restriction was removed from the two-item choice test, the rate of false recognition rebounded to that of the hit for studied list words, indicating the role of criterion in false recognition.

ADVICE: A New Approach for Near-Real-Time Monitoring of Surface Displacements in Landslide Hazard Scenarios

PubMed Central

Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele; Baldo, Marco; Lollino, Giorgio

2013-01-01

We present a new method for near-real-time monitoring of surface displacements due to landslide phenomena, namely ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning (ADVICE). The procedure includes: (i) data acquisition and transfer protocols; (ii) data collection, filtering, and validation; (iii) data analysis and restitution through a set of dedicated software; (iv) recognition of displacement/velocity threshold, early warning messages via SMS and/or emails; (v) automatic publication of the results on a dedicated webpage. We show how the system evolved and the results obtained by applying ADVICE over three years into a real early warning scenario relevant to a large earthflow located in southern Italy. ADVICE has speed-up and facilitated the understanding of the landslide phenomenon, the communication of the monitoring results to the partners, and consequently the decision-making process in a critical scenario. Our work might have potential applications not only for landslide monitoring but also in other contexts, as monitoring of other geohazards and of complex infrastructures, as open-pit mines, buildings, dams, etc. PMID:23807688

ADVICE: a new approach for near-real-time monitoring of surface displacements in landslide hazard scenarios.

PubMed

Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele; Baldo, Marco; Lollino, Giorgio

2013-06-27

We present a new method for near-real-time monitoring of surface displacements due to landslide phenomena, namely ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning (ADVICE). The procedure includes: (i) data acquisition and transfer protocols; (ii) data collection, filtering, and validation; (iii) data analysis and restitution through a set of dedicated software; (iv) recognition of displacement/velocity threshold, early warning messages via SMS and/or emails; (v) automatic publication of the results on a dedicated webpage. We show how the system evolved and the results obtained by applying ADVICE over three years into a real early warning scenario relevant to a large earthflow located in southern Italy. ADVICE has speed-up and facilitated the understanding of the landslide phenomenon, the communication of the monitoring results to the partners, and consequently the decision-making process in a critical scenario. Our work might have potential applications not only for landslide monitoring but also in other contexts, as monitoring of other geohazards and of complex infrastructures, as open-pit mines, buildings, dams, etc.

Near the conflagration: the wide duty to warn.

PubMed

Helminski, F

1993-07-01

The "duty to warn" has become fixed in US law since the 1976 case of Tarasoff v Regents of the University of California. In that case, the California Supreme Court decided that psychotherapists whose patients make a specific, serious threat of violence against a specific, clearly identifiable potential victim have a duty to warn the intended victim, directly or indirectly, of the threat. Tarasoff inspired several successful and unsuccessful lawsuits. A recent Vermont case has extended the duty to warn in that state to a threat of damage to property when persons may be physically harmed. The duty to warn is explicitly based on considerations of social utility and, as such, is attractive for courts to expand because an apparently minimal effort by therapists will often prevent substantial harm to victims. Some states have codified the duty to warn in a statute, but other states have refused to adopt the Tarasoff reasoning. In the absence of clear legal decisions to the contrary, psychotherapists may well anticipate that the duty to warn operates in their states.

Harnessing Vehicle-to-Pedestrian (V2P) Communication Technology: Sending Traffic Warnings to Texting Pedestrians.

PubMed

Rahimian, Pooya; O'Neal, Elizabeth E; Zhou, Shiwen; Plumert, Jodie M; Kearney, Joseph K

2018-06-01

We examined how sending mobile-device warnings to texting pedestrians when they initiate an unsafe road crossing influences their decisions and actions. Pedestrian texting has been identified as a key risk factor in pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Advances in sensing and communications technology offer the possibility of providing pedestrians with information about traffic conditions to assist them in safely crossing traffic-filled roadways. However, it is unclear how this information can be most effectively communicated to pedestrians. We examined how texting and nontexting pedestrians crossed roads with continuous traffic in a large-screen, immersive pedestrian simulator using a between-subjects design with three conditions: texting, warning, and control. Texting participants in the warning condition received an alarm on their cell phone when they began to cross a dangerously small gap. The results demonstrate the detrimental influence of texting on pedestrians' gap selection, movement timing, and gaze behavior, and show the potential of warnings to improve decision making and safety. However, the results also reveal the limits of warning texting participants once they initiate a crossing and possible overreliance on technology that may lead to reduced situation awareness. Mobile devices and short-range communication technologies offer enormous potential to assist pedestrians, but further study is needed to better understand how to provide useful information in a timely manner. The technology for communicating traffic information to pedestrians via mobile devices is on the horizon. Research on how such information influences all aspects of pedestrian behavior is critical to developing effective solutions.

Voice interactive electronic warning systems (VIEWS) - An applied approach to voice technology in the helicopter cockpit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voorhees, J. W.; Bucher, N. M.

1983-01-01

The cockpit has been one of the most rapidly changing areas of new aircraft design over the past thirty years. In connection with these developments, a pilot can now be considered a decision maker/system manager as well as a vehicle controller. There is, however, a trend towards an information overload in the cockpit, and information processing problems begin to occur for the rotorcraft pilot. One approach to overcome the arising difficulties is based on the utilization of voice technology to improve the information transfer rate in the cockpit with respect to both input and output. Attention is given to the background of speech technology, the application of speech technology within the cockpit, voice interactive electronic warning system (VIEWS) simulation, and methodology. Information subsystems are considered along with a dynamic simulation study, and data collection.

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

PubMed

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

2008-05-01

PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and regularly updated underpinning science and be tied to formal effectiveness evaluation, which is fed back into system improvements. The model presented emphasises human considerations, the development of which arguably require even more effort than the hardware components of early warning systems.

Evacuate or Shelter-in-place? The Role of Corporate Memory and Political Environment in Hospital-evacuation Decision Making.

PubMed

Ricci, Karen A; Griffin, Anne R; Heslin, Kevin C; Kranke, Derrick; Dobalian, Aram

2015-06-01

Hospital-evacuation decisions are rarely straightforward in protracted advance-warning events. Previous work provides little insight into the decision-making process around evacuation. This study was conducted to identify factors that most heavily influenced the decisions to evacuate the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) New York Harbor Healthcare System's (NYHHS; New York USA) Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene in 2011 and before Superstorm Sandy in 2012. Semi-structured interviews with 11 senior leaders were conducted on the processes and factors that influenced the evacuation decisions prior to each event. The most influential factor in the decision to evacuate the Manhattan Campus before Hurricane Irene was New York City's (NYC's) hospital-evacuation mandate. As a federal facility, the Manhattan VA medical center (VAMC) was exempt from the city's order, but decision makers felt compelled to comply. In the case of Superstorm Sandy, corporate memory of a similar 1992 storm that crippled the Manhattan facility drove the decision to evacuate before the storm hit. Results suggest that hospital-evacuation decisions are confounded by political considerations and are influenced by past disaster experience. Greater shared situational awareness among at-risk hospitals, along with a more coordinated approach to evacuation decision making, could reduce pressure on hospitals to make these high-stakes decisions. Systematic mechanisms for collecting, documenting, and sharing lessons learned from past disasters are sorely needed at the institutional, local, and national levels.

A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System for the Turkish and Portuguese NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Reißland, Sven; Schulz, Jana

2013-04-01

On November 27-28, 2012, the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) joined other countries in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region as participants in an international tsunami response exercise. The exercise, titled NEAMWave12, simulated widespread Tsunami Watch situations throughout the NEAM region. It is the first international exercise as such, in this region, where the UNESCO-IOC ICG/NEAMTWS tsunami warning chain has been tested to a full scale for the first time with different systems. One of the systems is developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) and has been validated in this exercise among others by KOERI and IPMA. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing related challenges. The first and second phase system demonstrator, deployed at KOERI's crisis management room and deployed at IPMA has been designed and implemented, firstly, to support plausible scenarios for the Turkish NTWC and for the Portuguese NTWC to demonstrate the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a NTWC. Secondly, the feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering ICG/NEAMTWS standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions beyond ICG/NEAMTWS requirements. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes for hypothetical tsunami-related crisis situations in the context of the ICG/NEAMTWS NEAMWave12 exercise for the Turkish and Portuguese tsunami exercise scenarios. Impressions gained with the standards compliant TRIDEC system during the exercise will be reported. The system version presented is based on event-driven architecture (EDA) and service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and is making use of relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). This demonstration is linked with the talk 'Experiences with TRIDEC's Crisis Management Demonstrator in the Turkish NEAMWave12 exercise tsunami scenario' (EGU2013-2833) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.6).

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

PubMed

Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

2015-01-01

Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of a GIS-based integrated framework for coastal seiches monitoring and forecasting: A North Jiangsu shoal case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Rufu; Lin, Liangzhao

2017-06-01

Coastal seiches have become an increasingly important issue in coastal science and present many challenges, particularly when attempting to provide warning services. This paper presents the methodologies, techniques and integrated services adopted for the design and implementation of a Seiches Monitoring and Forecasting Integration Framework (SMAF-IF). The SMAF-IF is an integrated system with different types of sensors and numerical models and incorporates the Geographic Information System (GIS) and web techniques, which focuses on coastal seiche events detection and early warning in the North Jiangsu shoal, China. The in situ sensors perform automatic and continuous monitoring of the marine environment status and the numerical models provide the meteorological and physical oceanographic parameter estimates. A model outputs processing software was developed in C# language using ArcGIS Engine functions, which provides the capabilities of automatically generating visualization maps and warning information. Leveraging the ArcGIS Flex API and ASP.NET web services, a web based GIS framework was designed to facilitate quasi real-time data access, interactive visualization and analysis, and provision of early warning services for end users. The integrated framework proposed in this study enables decision-makers and the publics to quickly response to emergency coastal seiche events and allows an easy adaptation to other regional and scientific domains related to real-time monitoring and forecasting.

Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

2015-04-01

The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

NOAA/West coast and Alaska Tsunami warning center Atlantic Ocean response criteria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitmore, P.; Refidaff, C.; Caropolo, M.; Huerfano-Moreno, V.; Knight, W.; Sammler, W.; Sandrik, A.

2009-01-01

West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) response criteria for earthquakesoccurring in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins are presented. Initial warning center decisions are based on an earthquake's location, magnitude, depth, distance from coastal locations, and precomputed threat estimates based on tsunami models computed from similar events. The new criteria will help limit the geographical extent of warnings and advisories to threatened regions, and complement the new operational tsunami product suite. Criteria are set for tsunamis generated by earthquakes, which are by far the main cause of tsunami generation (either directly through sea floor displacement or indirectly by triggering of sub-sea landslides).The new criteria require development of a threat data base which sets warning or advisory zones based on location, magnitude, and pre-computed tsunami models. The models determine coastal tsunami amplitudes based on likely tsunami source parameters for a given event. Based on the computed amplitude, warning and advisory zones are pre-set.

Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

PubMed

Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

2018-04-01

Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 1: Theoretical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

Intersection decision support : evaluation of a violation warning system to mitigate straight crossing path collisions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

This project entailed the design, development, testing, and evaluation of intersection decision support (IDS) systems to address straight crossing path (SCP) intersection crashes. This type of intersection crash is responsible for more than 100,000 c...

A Steady-State Visual Evoked Potential Brain-Computer Interface System Evaluation as an In-Vehicle Warning Device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riyahi, Pouria

This thesis is part of current research at Center for Intelligence Systems Research (CISR) at The George Washington University for developing new in-vehicle warning systems via Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). The purpose of conducting this research is to contribute to the current gap between BCI and in-vehicle safety studies. It is based on the premise that accurate and timely monitoring of human (driver) brain's signal to external stimuli could significantly aide in detection of driver's intentions and development of effective warning systems. The thesis starts with introducing the concept of BCI and its development history while it provides a literature review on the nature of brain signals. The current advancement and increasing demand for commercial and non-medical BCI products are described. In addition, the recent research attempts in transportation safety to study drivers' behavior or responses through brain signals are reviewed. The safety studies, which are focused on employing a reliable and practical BCI system as an in-vehicle assistive device, are also introduced. A major focus of this thesis research has been on the evaluation and development of the signal processing algorithms which can effectively filter and process brain signals when the human subject is subjected to Visual LED (Light Emitting Diodes) stimuli at different frequencies. The stimulated brain generates a voltage potential, referred to as Steady-State Visual Evoked Potential (SSVEP). Therefore, a newly modified analysis algorithm for detecting the brain visual signals is proposed. These algorithms are designed to reach a satisfactory accuracy rate without preliminary trainings, hence focusing on eliminating the need for lengthy training of human subjects. Another important concern is the ability of the algorithms to find correlation of brain signals with external visual stimuli in real-time. The developed analysis models are based on algorithms which are capable of generating results for real-time processing of BCI devices. All of these methods are evaluated through two sets of recorded brain signals which were recorded by g.TEC CO. as an external source and recorded brain signals during our car driving simulator experiments. The final discussion is about how the presence of an SSVEP based warning system could affect drivers' performances which is defined by their reaction distance and Time to Collision (TTC). Three different scenarios with and without warning LEDs were planned to measure the subjects' normal driving behavior and their performance while they use a warning system during their driving task. Finally, warning scenarios are divided into short and long warning periods without and with informing the subjects, respectively. The long warning period scenario attempts to determine the level of drivers' distraction or vigilance during driving. The good outcome of warning scenarios can bridge between vehicle safety studies and online BCI system design research. The preliminary results show some promise of the developed methods for in-vehicle safety systems. However, for any decisive conclusion that considers using a BCI system as a helpful in-vehicle assistive device requires far deeper scrutinizing.

Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

2013-12-01

Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted population centers with poor enforcement of building codes, unrealistic expectations of warning systems or failures to understand local seismic damage mechanisms; and the interaction of land use restriction strategies and responsive warning strategies around lahar-prone volcanoes. A more complete understanding of the interactions between these different types of mitigation strategy, especially the consequences for the expectations and behaviors of the populations at risk, requires models of decision-making under high levels of both uncertainty and danger. The Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action (OODA) loop model (Boyd, 1987) may be a particularly useful model. It emphasizes the importance of 'orientation' (the interpretation of observations and assessment of their significance for the observer and decision-maker), the feedback between decisions and subsequent observations and orientations, and the importance of developing mitigation strategies that are flexible and so able to respond to the occurrence of the unexpected. REFERENCE: Boyd, J.R. A Discourse on Winning and Losing [http://dnipogo.org/john-r-boyd/

Barriers to Accessing Tutoring Services among Students Who Received a Mid-Semester Warning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ciscell, Galen; Foley, Leslie; Luther, Kate; Howe, Robin; Gjsedal, Taylor

2016-01-01

For this focus group study we recruited from a population of 345 university students who had been informed of their poor academic performance in at least one course, but who had not utilized peer tutoring in the semester they received the warning, in order to determine if stigma played a role in their decision not to seek help. We learned from…

An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

2009-09-01

This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A rainfall-runoff model transforms the (forecasted) rainfall into a runoff volume (m³) and consequently a time-dependent discharge (m³/s) for each of the subwadis which is then routed through the main channel. The flood model then converts the discharges into water stages and generates a spatially-distributed flood map. The rainfall-runoff model is developed in Matlab-Simulink. The latter two models are implemented in Infoworks and Floodworks (both Wallingford Software), which allows an automatic feed into the warning module. The ‘warning module’ has two tasks: 1) to generate specific flags when modelling results exceed pre-established thresholds for rainfall, discharge, water stage, volumes, etc… 2) to communicate the given flags as warning signals to operators and/or stakeholders. The ‘decision support module’ or DSS finally gives to the user the capability of performing alternative analysis in order to have a better idea of the reliability of the forecasts by means of the comparison of already made forecasts with new data and a sensitivity analysis. Although FlaFloM is now able to send out warnings, the forecasts of this first version are expected to be insufficiently accurate which may lead to false warnings and loss of trust with decision-makers if not communicated well. When new insights and data are available, the model will be updated which improves the forecast accuracy. At this moment, we see two major fields of improvement: 1) better rainfall forecasts and 2) better insights of the response of an arid area to storm events. Firstly, the rainfall maps provided better insights in the spatial and temporal extent of a rainfall event, though absolute rainfall values are not considered accurate. The major reason behind is the fact that both global systems are insufficiently parameterized for arid areas. New data from an improved rain gauge network is expected to add value. Secondly, better insights need to be gained on the response of the Wadi to rainfall. The calibration of the hydrological models is currently based on literature and a geological surface map from which we derived infiltration rates. Modelled discharges or flood volumes can only be assessed qualitatively based on the field knowledge of local Bedouins inhabitants. To reduce uncertainty on forecasts and to guide on new data to be collected, a sensitivity analysis with rainfall scenarios is performed.

Effects of in-vehicle warning information displays with or without spatial compatibility on driving behaviors and response performance.

PubMed

Liu, Yung-Ching; Jhuang, Jing-Wun

2012-07-01

A driving simulator study was conducted to evaluate the effects of five in-vehicle warning information displays upon drivers' emergent response and decision performance. These displays include visual display, auditory displays with and without spatial compatibility, hybrid displays in both visual and auditory format with and without spatial compatibility. Thirty volunteer drivers were recruited to perform various tasks that involved driving, stimulus-response, divided attention and stress rating. Results show that for displays of single-modality, drivers benefited more when coping with visual display of warning information than auditory display with or without spatial compatibility. However, auditory display with spatial compatibility significantly improved drivers' performance in reacting to the divided attention task and making accurate S-R task decision. Drivers' best performance results were obtained for hybrid display with spatial compatibility. Hybrid displays enabled drivers to respond the fastest and achieve the best accuracy in both S-R and divided attention tasks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

2009-04-01

Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important component of an effective End-to-End Tsunami Early Warning System and therefore contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. Risk assessment is a key strategy to implement and design adequate disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The knowledge about expected tsunami hazard impacts, exposed elements, their susceptibility, coping and adaptation mechanisms is a precondition for the development of people-centred warning structures, local specific response and recovery policy planning. The developed risk assessment and its components reflect the disaster management cycle (disaster time line) and cover the early warning as well as the emergency response phase. Consequently the components hazard assessment, exposure (e.g. how many people/ critical facilities are affected?), susceptibility (e.g. are the people able to receive a tsunami warning?), coping capacity (are the people able to evacuate in time?) and recovery (are the people able to restore their livelihoods?) are addressed and quantified. Thereby the risk assessment encompasses three steps: (i) identifying the nature, location, intensity and probability of potential tsunami threats (hazard assessment); (ii) determining the existence and degree of exposure and susceptibility to those threats; and (iii) identifying the coping capacities and resources available to address or manage these threats. The paper presents results of the research work, which is conducted in the framework of the GITEWS project and the Joint Indonesian-German Working Group on Risk Modelling and Vulnerability Assessment. The assessment methodology applied follows a people-centred approach to deliver relevant risk and vulnerability information for the purposes of early warning and disaster management. The analyses are considering the entire coastal areas of Sumatra, Java and Bali facing the Sunda trench. Selected results and products like risk maps, guidelines, decision support information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a certain area is dependent on expected tsunami intensity, inundated area, estimated tsunami arrival time and available time for evacuation. Referring to the Aceh 2004 Tsunami, an estimated amount of people affected (dead/injured) of 21000 for Kabubaten Aceh Jaya and 85000 for Kab. Banda Aceh is in a comparable range with reported values of 19661 and 78417 (JICA 2005) respectively. Hence the established methodology provides reliable estimates of people affected and people's ability to reach a safe area. Based on the spatial explicit detection of e.g. high tsunami risk areas (and the assessed root causes therefore), specific disaster risk reduction and early warning strategies can be designed. For example additional installation of technical warning dissemination device, community based preparedness and awareness programmes (education), structural and non-structural measures (e.g. land use conversion, coastal engineering), effective evacuation, contingency and household recovery aid planning can be employed and/or optimized within high tsunami risk areas as a first priority. In the context of early warning, spatially distributed information like degree of expected hazard impact, exposure of critical facilities (e.g. hospitals, schools), potential people dead/injured depending on available response times, location of safe and shelter areas can be disseminated and used for decision making. Keywords: Tsunami risk, hazard and vulnerability assessment, early warning, tsunami mitigation and prevention, Indonesia

Food product health warnings promote dietary self-control through reductions in neural signals indexing food cue reactivity.

PubMed

Rosenblatt, Daniel H; Summerell, Patrick; Ng, Alyssa; Dixon, Helen; Murawski, Carsten; Wakefield, Melanie; Bode, Stefan

2018-01-01

Modern societies are replete with palatable food cues. A growing body of evidence suggests that food cue exposure activates conditioned appetitive physiological and psychological responses that may override current metabolic needs and existing eating goals, such as the desire to maintain a healthy diet. This conditioned response results in unhealthy dietary choices and is a contributing factor in the current obesity epidemic. Prime based obesity prevention measures such as health warnings at point-of-sale or on product packaging may have the potential to counteract the influence of the obesogenic environment at the crucial moment when people make food purchasing or consumption decisions. Existing research into the efficacy of these intervention strategies has predominantly employed self-report and population level measures, and little evidence exists to support the contention that these measures counteract food cue reactivity at the time of decision making. Using a dietary self-control priming paradigm, we demonstrated that brief exposure to food product health warnings enhanced dietary self-control. Further, we analysed electroencephalographic correlates of selective attention and food cue evoked craving (N1, P3, LPP) to show that health warning exposure reduced the automatic appetitive response towards palatable food cues. These findings contribute to existing evidence that exogenous information can successfully prime latent goals, and substantiate the notion that food product health warnings may provide a new avenue through which to curb excessive energy intake and reduce rising obesity rates.

Research and application of a hybrid model based on dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation for establishing air quality forecasting and early warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Xu, Yunzhen; Du, Pei; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-04-01

As the atmospheric environment pollution has been becoming more and more serious in China, it is highly desirable to develop a scientific and effective early warning system that plays a great significant role in analyzing and monitoring air quality. However, establishing a robust early warning system for warning the public in advance and ameliorating air quality is not only an extremely challenging task but also a public concerned problem for human health. Most previous studies are focused on improving the prediction accuracy, which usually ignore the significance of uncertainty information and comprehensive evaluation concerning air pollutants. Therefore, in this paper a novel robust early warning system was successfully developed, which consists of three modules: evaluation module, forecasting module and characteristics estimating module. In this system, a new dynamic fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed and applied to determine air quality levels and primary pollutants, which can be regarded as the research objectives; Moreover, to further mine and analyze the characteristics of air pollutants, four different distribution functions and interval forecasting method are also employed that can not only provide predictive range, confidence level and the other uncertain information of the pollutants future values, but also assist decision-makers in reducing and controlling the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. Case studies utilizing hourly PM 2.5 , PM 10 and SO 2 data collected from Tianjin and Shanghai in China are applied as illustrative examples to estimate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed system. Experimental results obviously indicated that the developed novel early warning system is much suitable for analyzing and monitoring air pollution, which can also add a novel viable option for decision-makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An archival analysis of stall warning system effectiveness during airborne icing encounters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maris, John Michael

An archival study was conducted to determine the influence of stall warning system performance on aircrew decision-making outcomes during airborne icing encounters. A Conservative Icing Response Bias (CIRB) model was developed to explain the historical variability in aircrew performance in the face of airframe icing. The model combined Bayes' Theorem with Signal Detection Theory (SDT) concepts to yield testable predictions that were evaluated using a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) multivariate technique applied to two archives: the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident database, and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident databases, both covering the period January 1, 1988 to October 2, 2015. The CIRB model predicted that aircrew would experience more incorrect response outcomes in the face of missed stall warnings than with stall warning False Alarms. These predicted outcomes were observed at high significance levels in the final sample of 132 NASA/NTSB cases. The CIRB model had high sensitivity and specificity, and explained 71.5% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance of aircrew decision-making outcomes during the icing encounters. The reliability and validity metrics derived from this study suggest indicate that the findings are generalizable to the population of U.S. registered turbine-powered aircraft. These findings suggest that icing-related stall events could be reduced if the incidence of stall warning Misses could be minimized. Observed stall warning Misses stemmed from three principal causes: aerodynamic icing effects, which reduced the stall angle-of-attack (AoA) to below the stall warning calibration threshold; tail stalls, which are not monitored by contemporary protection systems; and icing-induced system issues (such as frozen pitot tubes), which compromised stall warning system effectiveness and airframe envelope protections. Each of these sources of missed stall warnings could be addressed by Aerodynamic Performance Monitoring (APM) systems that directly measure the boundary layer airflow adjacent to the affected aerodynamic surfaces, independent of other aircraft stall protection, air data, and AoA systems. In addition to investigating APM systems, measures should also be taken to include the CIRB phenomenon in aircrew training to better prepare crews to cope with airborne icing encounters. The SDT/BLR technique would allow the forecast gains from these improved systems and training processes to be evaluated objectively and quantitatively. The SDT/BLR model developed for this study has broad application outside the realm of airborne icing. The SDT technique has been extensively validated by prior research, and the BLR is a very robust multivariate technique. Combined, they could be applied to evaluate high order constructs (such as stall awareness for this study), in complex and dynamic environments. The union of SDT and BLR reduces the modeling complexities for each variable into the four binary SDT categories of Hit, Miss, False Alarm, and Correct Rejection, which is the optimum format for the BLR. Despite this reductionist approach to complex situations, the method has demonstrated very high statistical and practical significance, as well as excellent predictive power, when applied to the airborne icing scenario.

Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early warning information systems to support preparedness and adaptation decisions in a changing climate.

Dual Rationality and Deliberative Agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debenham, John; Sierra, Carles

Human agents deliberate using models based on reason for only a minute proportion of the decisions that they make. In stark contrast, the deliberation of artificial agents is heavily dominated by formal models based on reason such as game theory, decision theory and logic—despite that fact that formal reasoning will not necessarily lead to superior real-world decisions. Further the Nobel Laureate Friedrich Hayek warns us of the ‘fatal conceit’ in controlling deliberative systems using models based on reason as the particular model chosen will then shape the system’s future and either impede, or eventually destroy, the subtle evolutionary processes that are an integral part of human systems and institutions, and are crucial to their evolution and long-term survival. We describe an architecture for artificial agents that is founded on Hayek’s two rationalities and supports the two forms of deliberation used by mankind.

The Canadian influenza decision, 1976.

PubMed Central

Morrison, A. B.; Liston, A. J.; Abbott, J. D.

1976-01-01

This paper explains the Canadian decision process following the isolation and identification of A/New Jersey/8/76 at Fort Dix, New Jersey in February 1976. The cause for concern was the emergence of a swine-like strain related to that which caused the 1918-19 pandemic, together with proved man-to-man transmission. This concern was reinforced since all new influenza A strains known to have infected the number of persons involved at Fort Dix have become strains of epidemic importance. The Fort Dix outbreak gave sufficient warning to allow implementation of a national vaccination program, to prevent and protect against influenza. In the past such an opportunity had not occurred, and vaccine use had, at best, constituted an intervention in the course of an outbreak. The National Advisory Committee on Immunizing Agents had all available information when it reached its decision to recommend vaccination with bivalent (A/Victoria and A/New Jersey) or with monovalent (A/New Jersey) vaccine for selective, high-risk groups. This was an independent, scientifically based decision. PMID:991022

Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

2017-05-01

Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

The Heat Is On: Decision-Maker Perspectives on When and How to Issue a Heat Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, M.; Sampson, N.; McCormick, S.; Rood, R. B.; Buxton, M.; Ebi, K. L.; Gronlund, C. J.; Zhang, K.; Catalano, L.; White-Newsome, J. L.; Conlon, K. C.; Parker, E. A.

2011-12-01

To better understand how to prevent illness and deaths during hot weather, particularly among at-risk populations, we conducted a study in Detroit, Michigan; Phoenix, Arizona; New York, New York, and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Our aims were to characterize and better understand how heatwave and health early warning systems (HHWS) and related prevention and sustainability programs can be more widely and effectively implemented. Specifically, we here report on the scientific evidence, expert judgments and the process used in deciding to trigger a HHWS and activate public health and social services interventions. We conducted interviews with public officials who decide if and when heat advisories/warnings are issued. After transcribing the interviews, we used a qualitative analysis software, QSR NVivo 9.0, to assign codes to portions of text from each transcript and allow analysis of information with common themes across the data. For example, several sentences in a transcript discussing a heat index might be coded as 'definition of heat wave'. A common theme across cities was that deciding what type of weather is dangerous to health is not straightforward. The time in season that heat occurs; the duration of the heat; the level of humidity and other meteorological factors; the extent to which temperatures drop at night, allowing people to cool off; and prevailing weather conditions all play a role. A single 'safe' threshold is unrealistic because people's individual sensitivity, housing, surrounding environments, behaviors, and access to air conditioning can differ greatly. However, choices must be made as to the trigger for the HHWS. Although quantitative analysis with health data (mortality, hospital admissions) can inform the design of the triggers, historical analysis has limitations, and decisions to issue heat warnings are sometimes related to planned activities, such as parades or fairs, that may expose large numbers of people to heat. The HHWS approach designed by Lawrence Kalkstein and colleagues using synoptic air mass forecasts and mortality data has been used by some cities. Other cities use National Weather Service products that are built on a variety of data inputs and approaches, including calculation of season-specific thresholds. More than one respondent mentioned distaste for 'black box' approaches that were not easily communicated to end-users. The decision to issue a heat warning can save lives, through such activities as opening cooling centers, distributing water to the homeless, and assisting elderly residents. A relatively simple triggering system that is easily understood by the media and public may facilitate more widespread adoption of HHWS. Funding: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Grant R18-EH000348

GITEWS, an extensible and open integration platform for manifold sensor systems and processing components based on Sensor Web Enablement and the principles of Service Oriented Architectures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haener, Rainer; Waechter, Joachim; Fleischer, Jens; Herrnkind, Stefan; Schwarting, Herrmann

2010-05-01

The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) is a multifaceted system consisting of various sensor types like seismometers, sea level sensors or GPS stations, and processing components, all with their own system behavior and proprietary data structure. To operate a warning chain, beginning from measurements scaling up to warning products, all components have to interact in a correct way, both syntactically and semantically. Designing the system great emphasis was laid on conformity to the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) specification by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The technical infrastructure, the so called Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) follows the blueprint of Service Oriented Architectures (SOA). The TSB is an integration concept (SWE) where functionality (observe, task, notify, alert, and process) is grouped around business processes (Monitoring, Decision Support, Sensor Management) and packaged as interoperable services (SAS, SOS, SPS, WNS). The benefits of using a flexible architecture together with SWE lead to an open integration platform: • accessing and controlling heterogeneous sensors in a uniform way (Functional Integration) • assigns functionality to distinct services (Separation of Concerns) • allows resilient relationship between systems (Loose Coupling) • integrates services so that they can be accessed from everywhere (Location Transparency) • enables infrastructures which integrate heterogeneous applications (Encapsulation) • allows combination of services (Orchestration) and data exchange within business processes Warning systems will evolve over time: New sensor types might be added, old sensors will be replaced and processing components will be improved. From a collection of few basic services it shall be possible to compose more complex functionality essential for specific warning systems. Given these requirements a flexible infrastructure is a prerequisite for sustainable systems and their architecture must be tailored for evolution. The use of well-known techniques and widely used open source software implementing industrial standards reduces the impact of service modifications allowing the evolution of a system as a whole. GITEWS implemented a solution to feed sensor raw data from any (remote) system into the infrastructure. Specific dispatchers enable plugging in sensor-type specific processing without changing the architecture. Client components don't need to be adjusted if new sensor-types or individuals are added to the system, because they access them via standardized services. One of the outstanding features of service-oriented architectures is the possibility to compose new services from existing ones. The so called orchestration, allows the definition of new warning processes which can be adapted easily to new requirements. This approach has following advantages: • With implementing SWE it is possible to establish the "detection" and integration of sensors via the internet. Thus a system of systems combining early warning functionality at different levels of detail is feasible. • Any institution could add both its own components as well as components from third parties if they are developed in conformance to SOA principles. In a federation an institution keeps the ownership of its data and decides which data are provided by a service and when. • A system can be deployed at minor costs as a core for own development at any institution and thus enabling autonomous early warning- or monitoring systems. The presentation covers both design and various instantiations (live demonstration) of the GITEWS architecture. Experiences concerning the design and complexity of SWE will be addressed in detail. A substantial amount of attention is laid on the techniques and methods of extending the architecture, adapting proprietary components to SWE services and encoding, and their orchestration in high level workflows and processes. Furthermore the potential of the architecture concerning adaptive behavior, collaboration across boundaries and semantic interoperability will be addressed.

Does innovation in obesity drugs affect stock markets? An event study analysis.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V; González López-Valcárcel, Beatriz

2012-01-01

This study empirically analyzes the effects of public information about the pharmaceutical R&D process on the market valuation of the sponsoring firm. We examined the market's response to scientific news and regulatory decisions about an antiobesity drug, rimonabant, and the effects on the sponsoring company (Sanofi-Aventis) and its incumbent competitors (Abbott and Roche). Event study methodology was used to test the null hypothesis of no market response. We covered the full life cycle of rimonabant (1994-2008), using a data set of daily closing price and volume. The results suggest that scientific news in the initial stages of the drug R&D process (i.e., drug discovery, preclinical and clinical trials) had no significant effects. However, news related to regulatory decisions, such as recall or safety warning, had significant negative effects on the company's market value. No spillover/contagion effects on competitor firms were detected. Market reactions occur at the time when the regulator takes decisions about drugs. Scientific news, even those of high-impact, may pass unnoticed. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Operational early warning of shallow landslides in Norway: Evaluation of landslide forecasts and associated challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl, Mads-Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Devoli, Graziella

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs a national early warning system (EWS) for shallow landslides in Norway. Slope failures included in the EWS are debris slides, debris flows, debris avalanches and slush flows. The EWS has been operational on national scale since 2013 and consists of (a) quantitative landslide thresholds and daily hydro-meteorological prognosis; (b) daily qualitative expert evaluation of prognosis / additional data in decision to determine warning levels; (c) publication of warning levels through various custom build internet platforms. The effectiveness of an EWS depends on both the quality of forecasts being issued, and the communication of forecasts to the public. In this analysis a preliminary evaluation of landslide forecasts from the Norwegian EWS within the period 2012-2014 is presented. Criteria for categorizing forecasts as correct, missed events or false alarms are discussed and concrete examples of forecasts falling into the latter two categories are presented. The evaluation show a rate of correct forecasts exceeding 90%. However correct forecast categorization is sometimes difficult, particularly due to poorly documented landslide events. Several challenges has to be met in the process of further lowering rates of missed events of false alarms in the EWS. Among others these include better implementation of susceptibility maps in landslide forecasting, more detailed regionalization of hydro-meteorological landslide thresholds, improved prognosis on precipitation, snowmelt and soil water content as well as the build-up of more experience among the people performing landslide forecasting.

The application of UAS towards tornado research and forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houston, A. L.; Argrow, B. M.; Frew, E.; Weiss, C.

2014-12-01

UAS hold significant potential to advance the understanding of tornadoes and improve tornado warning skill. While the current regulatory environment places limits on the application of UAS towards these ends, demonstrated success targeting tornadic and non-tornadic supercells proves the general feasibility of this work. In this presentation we will summarize the successes using UAS to collect data in the vicinity of supercell thunderstorms and discuss ways that these data, along with additional data collected in future field campaigns, can be used answer basic research questions concerning tornado formation and applied research questions concerning the value of UAS in the tornado warning decision process. The associative relationship between the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) and tornadogenesis has long been recognized. Yet, despite decades of research focused on tornadoes, the causal relationship between the RFD and tornadogenesis remains unresolved. In the presentation, we will describe ways that UAS could be used to test hypotheses posed to explain this causal relationship. We will also present a strategy to quantify the impact of UAS on tornado warning skill. Through controlled forecast experiments conducted using data collected through small field campaigns that leverage prior success targeting supercell thunderstorms with UAS, the value of targeted surveillance of potentially tornadic storms using UAS can be assessed. Significant changes to the existing regulatory environment are likely required for UAS, operated in a targeted surveillance mode, to contribute to improving tornado warning skill, but progress can be made today towards quantifying the impact that UAS could make.

The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

2009-04-01

Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For sensors on land the processing system delivers deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass movements which can occur, e.g., due to strong earthquakes. The ground motion information is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with possible relevance for a potentially following tsunami. By this means the GNSS system supports the decision finding process whether most probably a tsunami has been generated or not. For buoy based GNSS data the processing (differential, with GNSS reference station on land) delivers coordinates as well. Only the vertical component is of interest as it corresponds to the instant sea level height. Deviations to the mean sea level height are an indicator for a possibly passing tsunami wave. The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GNSS system supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by GNSS experts. The GNSS GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on different screens at the same time, even at remote locations. This is part of the concept, as it can support the dialogue between warning centre staff on duty or on standby and sensor station maintenance staff. Acknowledgements The GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Most relevant partners in Indonesia with respect to the GNSS component of GITEWS are the National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), the National Metereology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and the National Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01.

Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

2015-04-01

Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly increases the value of available information and the level of knowledge of forecasters and disaster managers. Different data, forecast and monitoring products, which are generated by different national and international institution and organizations, can be visualized and processed in real-time within the platform. DEWETRA is a web application ensuring the capillary distribution of information among institutions. The system is used as an infrastructure for exchanging and sharing data, procedures, models and expertise among the Sector of Emergency Management (SEM), the Republic Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) and the Serbian Public Water Companies (PWCs): Serbia Waters, Vojvodina Waters and Belgrade Waters.

Lessons from New Zealand's introduction of pictorial health warnings on tobacco packaging.

PubMed

Hoek, Janet; Wilson, Nick; Allen, Matthew; Edwards, Richard; Thomson, George; Li, Judy

2010-11-01

While international evidence suggests that featuring pictorial health warnings on tobacco packaging is an effective tobacco control intervention, the process used to introduce these new warnings has not been well documented. We examined relevant documents and interviewed officials responsible for this process in New Zealand. We found that, despite tobacco companies' opposition to pictorial health warnings and the resource constraints facing health authorities, the implementation process was generally robust and successful. Potential lessons for other countries planning to introduce or refresh existing pictorial health warnings include: (i) strengthening the link between image research and policy; (ii) requiring frequent image development and refreshment; (iii) using larger pictures (e.g. 80% of the front of the packet); (iv) developing themes that recognize concerns held by different smoker sub-groups; and (v) running integrated mass media campaigns when the warnings are introduced. All countries could also support moves by the World Health Organization Framework Convention on Tobacco Control's Secretariat to develop an international bank of copyright-free warnings.

Integrated System of Structural Health Monitoring and Intelligent Management for a Cable-Stayed Bridge

PubMed Central

Chen, Bin; Wang, Xu; Sun, Dezhang; Xie, Xu

2014-01-01

It is essential to construct structural health monitoring systems for large important bridges. Zhijiang Bridge is a cable-stayed bridge that was built recently over the Hangzhou Qiantang River (the largest river in Zhejiang Province). The length of Zhijiang Bridge is 478 m, which comprises an arched twin-tower space and a twin-cable plane structure. As an example, the present study describes the integrated system of structural health monitoring and intelligent management for Zhijiang Bridge, which comprises an information acquisition system, data management system, evaluation and decision-making system, and application service system. The monitoring components include the working environment of the bridge and various factors that affect bridge safety, such as the stress and strain of the main bridge structure, vibration, cable force, temperature, and wind speed. In addition, the integrated system includes a forecasting and decision-making module for real-time online evaluation, which provides warnings and makes decisions based on the monitoring information. From this, the monitoring information, evaluation results, maintenance decisions, and warning information can be input simultaneously into the bridge monitoring center and traffic emergency center to share the monitoring data, thereby facilitating evaluations and decision making using the system. PMID:25140342

Integrated system of structural health monitoring and intelligent management for a cable-stayed bridge.

PubMed

Chen, Bin; Wang, Xu; Sun, Dezhang; Xie, Xu

2014-01-01

It is essential to construct structural health monitoring systems for large important bridges. Zhijiang Bridge is a cable-stayed bridge that was built recently over the Hangzhou Qiantang River (the largest river in Zhejiang Province). The length of Zhijiang Bridge is 478 m, which comprises an arched twin-tower space and a twin-cable plane structure. As an example, the present study describes the integrated system of structural health monitoring and intelligent management for Zhijiang Bridge, which comprises an information acquisition system, data management system, evaluation and decision-making system, and application service system. The monitoring components include the working environment of the bridge and various factors that affect bridge safety, such as the stress and strain of the main bridge structure, vibration, cable force, temperature, and wind speed. In addition, the integrated system includes a forecasting and decision-making module for real-time online evaluation, which provides warnings and makes decisions based on the monitoring information. From this, the monitoring information, evaluation results, maintenance decisions, and warning information can be input simultaneously into the bridge monitoring center and traffic emergency center to share the monitoring data, thereby facilitating evaluations and decision making using the system.

Do graphic health warning labels have an impact on adolescents' smoking-related beliefs and behaviours?

PubMed

White, Victoria; Webster, Bernice; Wakefield, Melanie

2008-09-01

To assess the impact of the introduction of graphic health warning labels on cigarette packets on adolescents at different smoking uptake stages. School-based surveys conducted in the year prior to (2005) and approximately 6 months after (2006) the introduction of the graphic health warnings. The 2006 survey was conducted after a TV advertising campaign promoting two new health warnings. Secondary schools in greater metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Students in year levels 8-12: 2432 students in 2005, and 2050 in 2006, participated. Smoking uptake stage, intention to smoke, reported exposure to cigarette packs, knowledge of health effects of smoking, cognitive processing of warning labels and perceptions of cigarette pack image. At baseline, 72% of students had seen cigarette packs in the previous 6 months, while at follow-up 77% had seen packs and 88% of these had seen the new warning labels. Cognitive processing of warning labels increased, with students more frequently reading, attending to, thinking and talking about warning labels at follow-up. Experimental and established smokers thought about quitting and forgoing cigarettes more at follow-up. At follow-up intention to smoke was lower among those students who had talked about the warning labels and had forgone cigarettes. Graphic warning labels on cigarette packs are noticed by the majority of adolescents, increase adolescents' cognitive processing of these messages and have the potential to lower smoking intentions. Our findings suggest that the introduction of graphic warning labels may help to reduce smoking among adolescents.

Eye movement and brake reactions to real world brake-capacity forward collision warnings--a naturalistic driving study.

PubMed

Wege, Claudia; Will, Sebastian; Victor, Trent

2013-09-01

The purpose of this field operational test study is to assess visual attention allocation and brake reactions in response to a brake-capacity forward collision warning (B-FCW), which is designed similarly to all forward collision warnings on the market for trucks. Truck drivers' reactions immediately after the warning (threat-period) as well as a few seconds after the warning (post-threat-recovery-period) are analyzed, both with and without taking into consideration the predictability of an event and driver distraction. A B-FCW system interface should immediately direct visual attention toward the threat and allow the driver to make a quick decision about whether or not to brake. To investigate eye movement reactions, we analyzed glances 30s before and 15s after 60 naturally occurring collision warning events. The B-FCW events were extracted from the Volvo euroFOT database, which contains data from 30 Volvo trucks driving for approximately 40000 h for four million kilometers. Statistical analyses show that a B-FCW leads to immediate attention allocation toward the roadway and drivers hit the brake. In addition to this intended effect during the threat-period, a rather unexpected effect within the post-threat-recovery-period was discovered in unpredictable events and events with distracted drivers. A few seconds after a warning is issued, eye movements are directed away from the road toward the warning source in the instrument cluster. This potentially indicates that the driver is seeking to understand the circumstances of the warning. Potential reasons for this are discussed: properties relating to the termination of the warning information, the position of the visual and/or audio warning, the conspicuity of the warning, the duration of the warning, and the modality of the warning. The present results are particularly valuable because all on-market collision warning systems in trucks (and almost all in cars) involve visual warnings positioned in the instrument cluster like the one in this study. Acknowledging the fact that human machine interface (HMI)-design is challenging, the conclusions lead the way toward HMI design recommendations for collision warning systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Strasser, Andrew A; Emery, Lydia F; Sheerin, Kaitlin M; Romer, Daniel

2015-01-01

Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge. Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7), did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text. Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only) caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention). Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention). Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later. In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings in encouraging smokers to consider quitting and in educating them about smoking's risks. Negative affective reactions to smoking, thinking about risks, and perceptions of credibility are mediators of their impact. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01782053.

Far-field tsunami of 2017 Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake recorded by Chilean tide gauge network: Implications for tsunami warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Benavente, R. F.; Zelaya, C.; Núñez, C.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Mw 8.1, Tehuantepec earthquake generated a moderated tsunami, which was registered in near-field tide gauges network activating a tsunami threat state for Mexico issued by PTWC. In the case of Chile, the forecast of tsunami waves indicate amplitudes less than 0.3 meters above the tide level, advising an informative state of threat, without activation of evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, during sea level monitoring of network we detect wave amplitudes (> 0.3 m) indicating a possible change of threat state. Finally, NTWS maintains informative level of threat based on mathematical filtering analysis of sea level records. After 2010 Mw 8.8, Maule earthquake, the Chilean National Tsunami Warning System (NTWS) has increased its observational capabilities to improve early response. Most important operational efforts have focused on strengthening tide gauge network for national area of responsibility. Furthermore, technological initiatives as Integrated Tsunami Prediction and Warning System (SIPAT) has segmented the area of responsibility in blocks to focus early warning and evacuation procedures on most affected coastal areas, while maintaining an informative state for distant areas of near-field earthquake. In the case of far-field events, NTWS follow the recommendations proposed by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), including a comprehensive monitoring of sea level records, such as tide gauges and DART (Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys, to evaluate the state of tsunami threat in the area of responsibility. The main objective of this work is to analyze the first-order physical processes involved in the far-field propagation and coastal impact of tsunami, including implications for decision-making of NTWS. To explore our main question, we construct a finite-fault model of the 2017, Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake. We employ the rupture model to simulate a transoceanic tsunami modeled by Neowave2D. We generate synthetic time series at tide gauge stations and compare them with recorded sea level data, to dismiss meteorological processes, such as storms and surges. Resonance analysis is performed by wavelet technique.

Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the need for adaptation through improved agricultural practices, so that increased yields can offset the impacts of rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Future work will focus on assessing temperature-PET linkages, and evaluating pathways for agricultural development.

The effectiveness of current French health warnings displayed on alcohol advertisements and alcoholic beverages.

PubMed

Dossou, Gloria; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Diouf, Jacques-François

2017-08-01

Many countries use health warnings in an attempt to regulate alcohol consumption. However, there is a lack of conclusive evidence in the research on alcohol warnings to support decision-making on effective health policies. This study explores the effectiveness of two mandatory warnings introduced in France in 1991 and 2007: the first (Alcohol abuse is harmful) is displayed on alcohol advertisements; the second (a pictogram) on bottles. Given that advertising content regulations have been implemented in some countries to reduce the attractiveness of alcohol marketing (e.g. the Evin law in France), this research also aims to explore whether such regulations can improve the effectiveness of warnings. In-depth interviews were conducted with 26 French people aged 15-29 years. The effectiveness of health warnings was assessed in terms of recall, noticeability, credibility, comprehension, responsiveness, and ability to encourage moderate drinking and abstinence during pregnancy. Participants were shown alcohol advertisements and bottles that either followed or challenged content regulations. The data were analyzed using double manual coding and NVivo software. While both warnings suffered from a lack of visibility and noticeability due to their size, location, and outdatedness and because of competition from marketing design elements, the warning on the advertisement that followed content regulations was most visible. Both warnings were considered to be informationally vague, lacking in credibility and ineffective in terms of making participants feel concerned and influencing consumption habits. Current French warnings are ineffective and require modification. Improvements are suggested regarding the design and content of warnings to help increase their effectiveness. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Enhanced communication and coordination in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System.

PubMed

Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam; Simon, Katie

2012-03-01

Effective communication and coordination are critical when investigating a possible drinking water contamination incident. A contamination warning system is designed to detect water contamination by initiating a coordinated, effective response to mitigate significant public health and economic consequences. This article describes historical communication barriers during water contamination incidents and discusses how these barriers were overcome through the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System, referred to as the "Cincinnati Pilot." By enhancing partnerships in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Pilot, information silos that existed in each organization were replaced with interagency information depots that facilitated effective decision making.

Reliability Analysis of a Glacier Lake Warning System Using a Bayesian Net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturny, Rouven A.; Bründl, Michael

2013-04-01

Beside structural mitigation measures like avalanche defense structures, dams and galleries, warning and alarm systems have become important measures for dealing with Alpine natural hazards. Integrating them into risk mitigation strategies and comparing their effectiveness with structural measures requires quantification of the reliability of these systems. However, little is known about how reliability of warning systems can be quantified and which methods are suitable for comparing their contribution to risk reduction with that of structural mitigation measures. We present a reliability analysis of a warning system located in Grindelwald, Switzerland. The warning system was built for warning and protecting residents and tourists from glacier outburst floods as consequence of a rapid drain of the glacier lake. We have set up a Bayesian Net (BN, BPN) that allowed for a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis. The Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) of the BN were determined according to manufacturer's reliability data for each component of the system as well as by assigning weights for specific BN nodes accounting for information flows and decision-making processes of the local safety service. The presented results focus on the two alerting units 'visual acoustic signal' (VAS) and 'alerting of the intervention entities' (AIE). For the summer of 2009, the reliability was determined to be 94 % for the VAS and 83 % for the AEI. The probability of occurrence of a major event was calculated as 0.55 % per day resulting in an overall reliability of 99.967 % for the VAS and 99.906 % for the AEI. We concluded that a failure of the VAS alerting unit would be the consequence of a simultaneous failure of the four probes located in the lake and the gorge. Similarly, we deduced that the AEI would fail either if there were a simultaneous connectivity loss of the mobile and fixed network in Grindelwald, an Internet access loss or a failure of the regional operations centre. However, the probability of a common failure of these components was assumed to be low. Overall it can be stated that due to numerous redundancies, the investigated warning system is highly reliable and its influence on risk reduction is very high. Comparable studies in the future are needed to classify these results and to gain more experience how the reliability of warning systems could be determined in practice.

Drought monitoring and assessment: Remote sensing and modeling approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Bohms, Stefanie; Budde, Michael; Young, Claudia; Rowland, James; Verdin, James

2015-01-01

Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

CAN INTERNATIONAL LAW MAKE A DIFFERENCE UNCLOS AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-20

insignificant to a country that is hedging its bets and its control to become a regional power house. 15 Unfortunately for China, the PCA’s decision...published by China’s think tank, the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, that warns the US that its freedom of navigation patrols in the...Bloomberg, “US Naval Patrols Threaten Sovereignty, China Think Tank Warns,” Stars and Stripes 25 November 2016 https://www.stripes.com/news

Why People Don't Listen to Warnings: With Discussion of Implications for Futurists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koster, Fran

The document reviews recent literature on warning processes, evaluates the effectiveness of warnings in changing public policy and personal behavior, and applies warning literature to specific problem areas. Warning is interpreted to include a statement of the problem and a proposed course of action. The document is presented in six parts. Part…

The GNSS data processing component within the Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.

2010-05-01

Introduction Within the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project a near real-time GNSS processing system has been developed, which analizes on- and offshore measured GNSS data. It is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational tsunami early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Brief system description The GNSS data to be processed are received from sensors (GNSS antenna and receiver) installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre in real-time as a stream (RTR stations) or file-based and are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. The fully automatized system uses the BERNESE GPS software as processing core. Kinematic coordinate timeseries with a resolution of 1 Hz (landbased stations) and 1/3 Hz (buoys) are estimated every five minutes. In case of a recently occured earthquake the processing interval decreases from five to two minutes. All stations are processed with the relative technique (baseline-technique) using GITEWS-stations and stations available via IGS as reference. The most suitable reference stations are choosen by querying a database where continiously monitored quality data of GNSS observations are stored. In case of an earthquake at least one reference station should be located on a different tectonic plate to ensure that relative movements can be detected. The primary source for satellite orbit information is the IGS IGU product. If this source is not available for any reason, the system switches automatically to other orbit sources like CODE products or broadcast ephemeris data. For sensors on land the kinematic coordinates are used to detect deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass movements which can occur, e.g., due to strong earthquakes. The ground motion information is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism and consequences with possible relevance for a potentially following tsunami. Regarding kinematic coordinates of a buoy only the vertical component is of interest as it corresponds to the instant sea level. The kinematic coordinates are delivered to an oceanographic post-processing unit which applies dipping-, tilting- and tidal-corrections to the data. Deviations to the mean sea level are an indicator for a possibly passing tsunami wave. By this means the GNSS system supports the decision finding process whether a tsunami has been released or not. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed which monitors the whole processing chain from data transmission and GNSS data processing to the displaying of the kinematic coordinate time series. It supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by GNSS experts. The GNSS GUI system is web-based and allows all views to be displayed on different screens at the same time, even at remote locations. This is part of the concept, as it can support the dialogue between warning centre staff on duty or on standby and sensor station maintenance staff. Acknowledgements The GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Most relevant partners in Indonesia with respect to the GNSS component of GITEWS are the National Coordinating Agency for Surveys and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), the National Metereology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) and the National Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01.

Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

2017-01-01

Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

2015-04-01

Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloke, Hannah

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

Communicating likelihoods and probabilities in forecasts of volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, Emma E. H.; McClure, John; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas

2014-02-01

The issuing of forecasts and warnings of natural hazard events, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquake aftershock sequences and extreme weather often involves the use of probabilistic terms, particularly when communicated by scientific advisory groups to key decision-makers, who can differ greatly in relative expertise and function in the decision making process. Recipients may also differ in their perception of relative importance of political and economic influences on interpretation. Consequently, the interpretation of these probabilistic terms can vary greatly due to the framing of the statements, and whether verbal or numerical terms are used. We present a review from the psychology literature on how the framing of information influences communication of these probability terms. It is also unclear as to how people rate their perception of an event's likelihood throughout a time frame when a forecast time window is stated. Previous research has identified that, when presented with a 10-year time window forecast, participants viewed the likelihood of an event occurring ‘today’ as being of less than that in year 10. Here we show that this skew in perception also occurs for short-term time windows (under one week) that are of most relevance for emergency warnings. In addition, unlike the long-time window statements, the use of the phrasing “within the next…” instead of “in the next…” does not mitigate this skew, nor do we observe significant differences between the perceived likelihoods of scientists and non-scientists. This finding suggests that effects occurring due to the shorter time window may be ‘masking’ any differences in perception due to wording or career background observed for long-time window forecasts. These results have implications for scientific advice, warning forecasts, emergency management decision-making, and public information as any skew in perceived event likelihood towards the end of a forecast time window may result in an underestimate of the likelihood of an event occurring ‘today’ leading to potentially inappropriate action choices. We thus present some initial guidelines for communicating such eruption forecasts.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawerence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffery T.; Kozlowski, Danielle M.; Goodman, Steven

2012-01-01

Key points that this analysis will begin to address are: 1)What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? - Updraft variations, ice fluxes. 2)How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3)What would this information provide an end user (i.e., the forecaster)? - Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi-Doppler derived physical relationships 4) How do we best transistionthis algorithm into the warning decision process. The known relationship between lightning updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production can be extended to the concept of the lightning jump. Examination of the first lightning jump times from 329 storms in Schultz et al. shows an increase in the mean reflectivity profile and mixed phase echo volume during the 10 minutes prior to the lightning jump. Limited dual-Doppler results show that the largest lightning jumps are well correlated in time with increases in updraft strength/volume and precipitation ice mass production; however, the smaller magnitude lightning jumps appear to have more subtle relationships to updraft and ice mass characteristics.

Organizing Schools to Address Early Warning Indicators (EWIs): Common Practices and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Marcia; Herzog, Liza; Legters, Nettie

2013-01-01

An early warning system is an intentional process whereby school personnel collectively analyze student data to monitor students at risk of falling off track for graduation and to provide the interventions and resources to intervene. We studied the process of monitoring the early warning indicators and implementing interventions to ascertain…

Global Environmental Alert Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, V. F.; Cervone, G.; Singh, A.; Kafatos, M.

2006-12-01

Every year natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. occur around the world, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and injuries, billions of dollars in economic losses, and destroying natural landmarks and adveresely affecting ecosystems. Due to increasing urbanization, and increasingly higher percentage of the world's population living in megacities, the existence of nuclear power plants and other facilities whose potential destruction poses unacceptable high risks, natural hazards represent an increasing threat for economic losses, as well as risk to people and property. Warning systems represent an innovative and effective approach to mitigate the risks associated with natural hazards. Several state-of-the-art analyses show that early warning technologies are now available for most natural hazards and systems are already in operation in some parts of the world. Nevertheless, recent disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2005 Katrina hurricane, highlighted inadequacies in early warning system technologies. Furthermore, not all available technologies are deployed in every part of the world, due to the lack of awareness and resources in the poorer countries, leaving very large and densely populated areas at risk. Efforts towards the development of a global warning system are necessary for filling the gaps of existing technologies. A globally comprehensive early warning system based on existing technologies will be a means to consolidate scientific knowledge, package it in a form usable to international and national decision makers and actively disseminate this information to protect people and properties. There is not a single information broker who searches and packages the policy relevant material and delivers it in an understandable format to the public and decision makers. A critical review of existing systems reveals the need for the innovative service. We propose here a Global Environmental Alert Service (GEAS) that could provide information from monitoring, Earth observing and early warning systems to users in a near real time mode and bridge the gap between the scientific community and policy makers. Characteristics and operational aspects of GEAS are discussed.

System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakhidova, D. V.; Kadyrhodjaev, A.; Scientific Team Of Hydroengeo Institute On Natural Hazards

2010-12-01

Well-timed warning of the population about possible landslide threat is one of the main positions in order to provide safe and stable country development. The system of monitoring over dangerous geological processes includes such components, as observation, forecast, control and management. Aspects of forecasting take special place. Having wide row of observations there can be possible to reveal some regularity of the phenomena, basing on which, it is possible to proceed forecasting. We looked through many approaches of forecasting that are used in different countries. The analysis of the available work has allowed to draw up a conclusion that while referring to the question of landslide forecasting, it is necessary to approach in system form, taking into account interacting components of the nature. The study of landslide processes has shown that these processes lies within the framework of engineering-geological directions of the science and also interacts with tectonics, geomorphology, hydrogeology, hydrology, climate change, technogenesis and etc. Thereby, the necessity of system approach, achievements of modern science and technology the most expedient approach to make a decision at landslide forecasting is probabilistic-statistical method with complex use of geological and satellite data, specific images processed through geoinformation systems. In this connection, probabilistic-statistical approach, reflecting natural characteristics of interacting natural system, allows to take into account multi-factored processes of landslide activations. Among the many factors, influencing on landslide activation, there exist ones that are not amenable to numerical feature. The parameters of these factors have descriptive, qualitative, rather than quantitative nature. Leaving these factors with lack of attention is absolutely not reasonable. Proposed approach has one more advantage, which allows taking into account not only numerical, but also non-numeric parameters. Combination of multidisciplinary, systematic feature, multifactorness of the account, probabilistic and statistical methods of the calculation, complex use of geological and satellite data, using modern technology processing and analysis of information - all these aspects were collected in one at proposed by authors approach to solve the question of defining the area of possible landslide activation. Proposed by authors method could be a part of the monitoring system for early warning of landslide activation. Thus, the authors propose to initialize the project “System development over the monitoring for the purpose of early warning of population from the threat of landslides”. In the process of project implementation there to be revealed such results like: 1. System of Geo-indicators in order to early warn quick-running landslide processes. 2. United interconnected system for remote, surface and underground types of observations over Geo-indicators. 3. Notification system of population about forthcoming threat by means of alerts, light signals, mobilization of municipalities and related ministries. In the result of project implementation there considered to reveal economic, technical, and social outputs.

Facilitating Adoption of News Tool to Develop Clinical Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Robin T.

2017-01-01

This scholarly project was a non-experimental, pre/post-test design to (a) facilitate the voluntary adoption of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and (b) develop clinical decision making (CDM) in one cohort of junior level nursing students participating in a simulation lab. NEWS is an evidence-based predictive scoring tool developed by the…

Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.

2017-12-01

In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Donald R.

With increasing frequency, problems of environmental contamination are being analyzed from a risk perspective. Risk-Based Contaminated Land Investigation and Assessment is written for those who wish to present the results of their examination of contaminated land in terms of risk.The opening chapters introduce the concepts of risk analysis for contaminated land. Risk management and the risk assessment process are based on a source-pathway-target framework. Readers are warned against an “over-reliance on the identification of contaminants rather than the potential pathways by which targets may be exposed to these hazards.” In the risk management framework presented in this book, risk evaluation and resultant decision making are seen as part of both the risk assessment and risk reduction process. The sharp separation of risk assessment from risk management as seen in the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) risk assessment paradigm is not advocatedsemi; perhaps this is because the NAS' concern was regulatory decision while the book's concern is the assessment of a specific site.

Neural correlates of cigarette health warning avoidance among smokers.

PubMed

Stothart, George; Maynard, Olivia; Lavis, Rosie; Munafò, Marcus

2016-04-01

Eye-tracking technology has indicated that daily smokers actively avoid pictorial cigarette package health warnings. Avoidance may be due to a pre-cognitive perceptual bias or a higher order cognitive bias, such as reduced emotional processing. Using electroencephalography (EEG), this study aimed to identify the temporal point at which smokers' responses to health warnings begin to differ. Non-smokers (n=20) and daily smokers (n=20) viewed pictorial cigarette package health warnings and neutral control stimuli. These elicited Event Related Potentials reflecting early perceptual processing (visual P1), pre-attentive change detection (visual Mismatch Negativity), selective attentional orientation (P3) and a measure of emotional processing, the Late Positive Potential (LPP). There was no evidence for a difference in P1 responses between smokers and non-smokers. There was no difference in vMMN and P3 amplitude but some evidence for a delay in vMMN latency amongst smokers. There was strong evidence for delayed and reduced LPP to health warning stimuli amongst smokers compared to non-smokers. We find no evidence for an early perceptual bias in smokers' visual perception of health warnings but strong evidence that smokers are less sensitive to the emotional content of cigarette health warnings. Future health warning development should focus on increasing the emotional salience of pictorial health warning content amongst smokers. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

A probabilistic approach of the Flash Flood Early Warning System (FF-EWS) in Catalonia based on radar ensemble generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, David; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Corral, Carles; Llort, Xavier; Velasco, Enrique

2010-05-01

Early Warning Systems (EWS) are commonly identified as the most efficient tools in order to improve the preparedness and risk management against heavy rains and Flash Floods (FF) with the objective of reducing economical losses and human casualties. In particular, flash floods affecting torrential Mediterranean catchments are a key element to be incorporated within operational EWSs. The characteristic high spatial and temporal variability of the storms requires high-resolution data and methods to monitor/forecast the evolution of rainfall and its hydrological impact in small and medium torrential basins. A first version of an operational FF-EWS has been implemented in Catalonia (NE Spain) under the name of EHIMI system (Integrated Tool for Hydrometeorological Forecasting) with the support of the Catalan Water Agency (ACA) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Flash flood warnings are issued based on radar-rainfall estimates. Rainfall estimation is performed on radar observations with high spatial and temporal resolution (1km2 and 10 minutes) in order to adapt the warning scale to the 1-km grid of the EWS. The method is based on comparing observed accumulated rainfall against rainfall thresholds provided by the regional Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. The so-called "aggregated rainfall warning" at every river cell is obtained as the spatially averaged rainfall over its associated upstream draining area. Regarding the time aggregation of rainfall, the critical duration is thought to be an accumulation period similar to the concentration time of each cachtment. The warning is issued once the forecasted rainfall accumulation exceeds the rainfall thresholds mentioned above, which are associated to certain probability of occurrence. Finally, the hazard warning is provided and shown to the decision-maker in terms of exceeded return periods at every river cell covering the whole area of Catalonia. The objective of the present work includes the probabilistic component to the FF-EWS. As a first step, we have incorporated the uncertainty in rainfall estimates and forecasts based on an ensemble of equiprobable rainfall scenarios. The presented study has focused on a number of rainfall events and the performance of the FF-EWS evaluated in terms of its ability to produce probabilistic hazard warnings for decision-making support.

Exploring Vital Sign Data Quality in Electronic Health Records with Focus on Emergency Care Warning Scores.

PubMed

Skyttberg, Niclas; Chen, Rong; Blomqvist, Hans; Koch, Sabine

2017-08-30

Computerized clinical decision support and automation of warnings have been advocated to assist clinicians in detecting patients at risk of physiological instability. To provide reliable support such systems are dependent on high-quality vital sign data. Data quality depends on how, when and why the data is captured and/or documented. This study aims to describe the effects on data quality of vital signs by three different types of documentation practices in five Swedish emergency hospitals, and to assess data fitness for calculating warning and triage scores. The study also provides reference data on triage vital signs in Swedish emergency care. We extracted a dataset including vital signs, demographic and administrative data from emergency care visits (n=335027) at five Swedish emergency hospitals during 2013 using either completely paper-based, completely electronic or mixed documentation practices. Descriptive statistics were used to assess fitness for use in emergency care decision support systems aiming to calculate warning and triage scores, and data quality was described in three categories: currency, completeness and correctness. To estimate correctness, two further categories - plausibility and concordance - were used. The study showed an acceptable correctness of the registered vital signs irrespectively of the type of documentation practice. Completeness was high in sites where registrations were routinely entered into the Electronic Health Record (EHR). The currency was only acceptable in sites with a completely electronic documentation practice. Although vital signs that were recorded in completely electronic documentation practices showed plausible results regarding correctness, completeness and currency, the study concludes that vital signs documented in Swedish emergency care EHRs cannot generally be considered fit for use for calculation of triage and warning scores. Low completeness and currency were found if the documentation was not completely electronic.

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

PubMed Central

Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2012-01-01

Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

PubMed

Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2012-01-01

Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

Visual attention to health warnings on plain tobacco packaging in adolescent smokers and non-smokers.

PubMed

Maynard, Olivia M; Munafò, Marcus R; Leonards, Ute

2013-02-01

Previous research with adults indicates that plain packaging increases visual attention to health warnings in adult non-smokers and weekly smokers, but not daily smokers. The present research extends this study to adolescents aged 14-19 years. Mixed-model experimental design, with smoking status as a between-subjects factor and pack type (branded or plain pack) and eye gaze location (health warning or branding) as within-subjects factors. Three secondary schools in Bristol, UK. A convenience sample of adolescents comprising never-smokers (n = 26), experimenters (n = 34), weekly smokers (n = 13) and daily smokers (n = 14). Number of eye movements to health warnings and branding on plain and branded packs. Analysis of variance, irrespective of smoking status revealed more eye movements to health warnings than branding on plain packs, but an equal number of eye movements to both regions on branded packs (P = 0.033). This was observed among experimenters (P < 0.001) and weekly smokers (P = 0.047), but not among never-smokers or daily smokers. Among experimenters and weekly smokers, plain packaging increases visual attention to health warnings and away from branding. Daily smokers, even relatively early in their smoking careers, seem to avoid the health warnings on cigarette packs. Adolescent never-smokers attend the health warnings preferentially on both types of packs, a finding which may reflect their decision not to smoke. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Evans, Abigail T.; Peters, Ellen; Strasser, Andrew A.; Emery, Lydia F.; Sheerin, Kaitlin M.; Romer, Daniel

2015-01-01

Objective Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge. Methods Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7), did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text. Results Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only) caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention). Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention). Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later. Conclusions In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings in encouraging smokers to consider quitting and in educating them about smoking’s risks. Negative affective reactions to smoking, thinking about risks, and perceptions of credibility are mediators of their impact. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01782053 PMID:26672982

Trial-by-trial fluctuations in CNV amplitude reflect anticipatory adjustment of response caution.

PubMed

Boehm, Udo; van Maanen, Leendert; Forstmann, Birte; van Rijn, Hedderik

2014-08-01

The contingent negative variation, a slow cortical potential, occurs when humans are warned by a stimulus about an upcoming task. The cognitive processes that give rise to this EEG potential are not yet well understood. To explain these processes, we adopt a recently developed theoretical framework from the area of perceptual decision-making. This framework assumes that the basal ganglia control the tradeoff between fast and accurate decision-making in the cortex. It suggests that an increase in cortical excitability serves to lower response caution, which results in faster but more error prone responding. We propose that the CNV reflects this increased cortical excitability. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an EEG experiment in which participants performed the random dot motion task either under speed or under accuracy stress. Our results show that trial-by-trial fluctuations in participants' response speed as well as model-based estimates of response caution correlated with single-trial CNV amplitude under conditions of speed but not accuracy stress. We conclude that the CNV might reflect adjustments of response caution, which serves to enhance quick decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and capabilities of different dissemination channels such as SMS, email and television, have bearing on the information processing required for delivery and consumption of a DEWS EDXL-DE/CAP message over each dissemination channel. These messages may include additional information in the form of maps, graphs, documents, sensor observations, etc. Therefore, the generated messages are pre-processed by channel adaptors in the information dissemination services converting it into a format that is suitable for end-to-end delivery over the dissemination channels without any semantic distortion. The approach followed by DEWS for disseminating warnings not only relies on traditional communication ways used by the already established early warnings such as the delivery of faxes and phone calls but takes into consideration the use of other broadly used communication channels such as SMS, email, narrowcast and broadcast television, instant messaging, Voice over IP, and radio. It also takes advantage of social media channels like RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter, etc., enabling a multiplier effect, like in the case of radio and television, and thus allowing to create mash-ups by aggregating other sources of information to the original message. Finally, status information is also important in order to assess and understand whether the process of disseminating the warning to the message consumers has been successfully completed or the process failed at some point of the dissemination chain. To that end, CAP-based messages generated within the information dissemination services provide the semantics for those fields that are of interest within the context of reporting the warning dissemination status in DEWS.

Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2014-05-01

Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

78 FR 42155 - BHC Investment Corporation, Receipt of Petition for Decision of Inconsequential Noncompliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-15

...: BHC Investment Corporation (BHC) \\1\\ has determined that certain ``Choice'' brand reflective warning... merits of the petition. Equipment Involved: Affected are approximately 13,305 ``Choice'' brand reflective...

The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

2011-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available software repository provided by CEGIT. FOSSLAB serves as a platform for the development of FOSS projects in geospatial context, allowing to save, advance and reuse results achieved in previous and on-going project activities and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. FOSSLABs potential to preserve and advance existing best practices for reuse in new scenarios is documented by a first case study: For TEWS education and public outreach a comprehensive approach to generate high resolution globe maps was compiled using GRASS GIS and the POV-Ray rendering software. The task resulted in the merging of isolated technical know-how into publicly available best practices, which had been previously maintained in disparate GIS- and rendering communities. Beyond the scope of TRIDEC, FOSSLAB constitutes an umbrella encompassing several geoinformatics-related activities, such as the documentation of Best Practices for experiences and results while working with Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Geomatics, and future spatial processing on Computation Clusters and in Cloud Computing.

Adolescent girls and young adult women's perceptions of superslims cigarette packaging: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Ford, Allison; Moodie, Crawford; Purves, Richard; MacKintosh, Anne Marie

2016-01-01

Objectives To explore perceptions of superslims packaging, including compact ‘lipstick’ packs, in line with 3 potential impacts identified within the impact assessment of the European Union (EU) Tobacco Products Directive: appeal, harm perceptions and the seriousness of warning of health risks. Design Qualitative focus group study. Setting Informal community venues in Scotland, UK. Participants 75 female non-smokers and occasional smokers (age range 12–24). Results Compact ‘lipstick’-type superslims packs were perceived most positively and rated as most appealing. They were also viewed as less harmful than more standard sized cigarette packs because of their smaller size and likeness to cosmetics. Additionally, ‘lipstick’ packs were rated as less serious in terms of warning about the health risks associated with smoking, either because the small font size of the warnings was difficult to read or because the small pack size prevented the text on the warnings from being displayed properly. Bright pack colours and floral designs were also thought to detract from the health warning. Conclusions As superslims packs were found to increase appeal, mislead with respect to level of harm, and undermine the on-pack health warnings, this provides support for the decision to ban ‘lipstick’-style cigarette packs in the EU and has implications for policy elsewhere. PMID:26747040

Risk perceptions and smoking decisions of adult Chinese men.

PubMed

Lin, Wanchuan; Sloan, Frank

2015-01-01

This study analyzes effects of changes in risk perceptions of smoking's health harms on actual and attempted quits and quitting intentions of male smokers in China. Our survey of 5000+ male smokers was conducted two years after their neighbor's lung cancer diagnosis. We use proximity to a lung cancer neighbor as an exogenous determinant of individual's smoking risk perception. We show that learning of a neighbor's lung cancer diagnosis substantially affects smokers' subjective beliefs about smoking's harms, which in turn affects decisions about continued smoking and intentions to quit. Our study findings offer important public policy implications in indicating the importance of designing health-warning messages that fit smokers' personal circumstances as opposed to warnings solely based on edicts from scientific experts and/or epidemiological evidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

2010-12-01

Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology transfer methodologies. Achieving Context and Meaning: To provide deeper meaning and knowledge about the Early Warning System to users, this stage of the Early Warning System provides more information about specific examples of disturbances seen in the phenological data, as well the spatial and temporal context to these disturbances. The main components of this stage are specific case studies of forest disturbances. Accessing Data: This component of the Early Warning System includes products for research scientists, the aerial detection survey sketch mapper community, and others who will access and analyze the Early Warning System and phenological data. Products and data will be available through online GIS mashups and WMS and KML downloads. Utilizing Services: The final stage of the Early Warning System supports the analysis of phenological data and serves the results to those end users, including forest managers, the forest industry, and the public, who need to locate past, present, and potential forest disturbances. The main components of this stage include data-driven web tools, automated analysis processes, and end user training programs.

Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

An integrated information system for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Loggia, Goffredo; Arnone, Elisa; Ciraolo, Giuseppe; Maltese, Antonino; Noto, Leonardo; Pernice, Umberto

2012-09-01

This paper reports the first results of the Project SESAMO - SistEma informativo integrato per l'acquisizione, geStione e condivisione di dati AMbientali per il supportO alle decisioni (Integrated Information System for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making). The main aim of the project is to design and develop an integrated environmental information platform able to provide monitoring services for decision support, integrating data from different environmental monitoring systems (including WSN). This ICT platform, based on a service-oriented architecture (SOA), will be developed to coordinate a wide variety of data acquisition systems, based on heterogeneous technologies and communication protocols, providing different sort of environmental monitoring services. The implementation and validation of the SESAMO platform and its services will involve three specific environmental domains: 1) Urban water losses; 2) Early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides; 3) Precision irrigation planning. Services in the first domain are enabled by a low cost sensors network collecting and transmitting data, in order to allow the pipeline network managers to analyze pressure, velocity and discharge data for reducing water losses in an urban contest. This paper outlines the SESAMO functional and technological structure and then gives a concise description of the service design and development process for the second and third domain. Services in the second domain are enabled by a prototypal early warning system able to identify in near-real time high-risk zones of rainfall-induced landslides. Services in the third domain are aimed to optimize irrigation planning of vineyards depending on plant water stress.

Enhancing access and usage of earth observations to support environmental decision making in Eastern and Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Macharia, D.; Peterson, P.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Funk, C.; Flores, A.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing, reanalysis and model based earth observations (EOs) are crucial for environmental decision making, particularly in a region like Eastern and Southern Africa, where ground-based observations are sparse. NASA and the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provide several EOs relevant for monitoring, providing early warning of agroclimatic conditions. Nonetheless, real-time application of those EOs for decision making in the region is still limited. This presentation reports on an ongoing SERVIR-supported Applied Science Team (AST) project that aims to fill that gap by working in close collaboration with Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), the NASA SERVIR regional hub. The three main avenues being taken to enhance access and usage of EOs in the region are: (1) Transition and implementation of web-based tools to RCMRD to allow easy processing and visualization of EOs (2) Capacity building of personnel from regional and national agroclimate service agencies in using EOs, through training using targeted case studies, and (3) Development of new datasets to meet the specific needs of RCMRD and regional stakeholders. The presentation will report on the initial success, lessons learned, and feedback thus far in this project regarding the implementation of web-based tool and capacity building efforts. It will also briefly describe three new datasets, currently in development, to improve agroclimate monitoring in the region, which are: (1) Satellite infrared and stations based temperature maximum dataset (CHIRTS) (2) NASA's GEOS5 and NCEP's CFSv2 based seasonal scale reference evapotranspiration forecasts and (3) NCEP's GEFS based medium range weather forecasts which are bias-corrected to USGS and UCSB's rainfall monitoring dataset (CHIRPS).

Decision making technical support study for the US Army's Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feldman, D.L.; Dobson, J.E.

1990-08-01

This report examines the adequacy of current command and control systems designed to make timely decisions that would enable sufficient warning and protective response to an accident at the Edgewood area of Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, and at Pine Bluff Arsenal (PBA), Arkansas. Institutional procedures designed to facilitate rapid accident assessment, characterization, warning, notification, and response after the onset of an emergency and computer-assisted decision-making aids designed to provide salient information to on- and-off-post emergency responders are examined. The character of emergency decision making at APG and PBA, as well as potential needs for improvements to decision-making practices, procedures,more » and automated decision-support systems (ADSSs), are described and recommendations are offered to guide equipment acquisition and improve on- and off-post command and control relationships. We recommend that (1) a continued effort be made to integrate on- and off-post command control, and decision-making procedures to permit rapid decision making; (2) the pathways for alert and notification among on- and off-post officials be improved and that responsibilities and chain of command among off-post agencies be clarified; (3) greater attention be given to organizational and social context factors that affect the adequacy of response and the likelihood that decision-making systems will work as intended; and (4) faster improvements be made to on-post ADSSs being developed at APG and PBA, which hold considerable promise for depicting vast amounts of information. Phased development and procurement of computer-assisted decision-making tools should be undertaken to balance immediate needs against available resources and to ensure flexibility, equity among sites, and compatibility among on- and off-post systems. 112 refs., 6 tabs.« less

Operational tsunami modeling with TsunAWI - Examples for Indonesia and Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakowsky, Natalja; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven; Immerz, Antonia; Fuchs, Annika; Behrens, Jörn; Danilov, Sergey; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

2014-05-01

The numerical simulation code TsunAWI was developed in the framework of the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). The numerical simulation of prototypical tsunami scenarios plays a decisive role in the a priory risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. TsunAWI is based on a finite element discretization, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast, and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview of the model itself and presents two applications. For GITEWS, the existing scenario database covering 528 epicenters / 3450 scenarios from Sumatra to Bali was extended by 187 epicenters / 1100 scenarios in the Eastern Sunda Arc. Furthermore, about 1100 scenarios for the Western Sunda Arc were recomputed on the new model domain covering the whole Indonesian Seas. These computations would not have been feasible in the beginning of the project. The unstructured computational grid contains 7 million nodes and resolves all coastal regions with 150m, some project regions and the surrounding of tide gauges with 50m, and the deep ocean with 12km edge length. While in the Western Sunda Arc, the large islands of Sumatra and Java shield the Northern Indonesian Archipelago, tsunamis in the Eastern Sunda Arc can propagate to the North. The unstructured grid approach allows TsunAWI to easily simulate the complex propagation patterns with the self-interactions and the reflections at the coastal regions of myriads of islands. For the Hydrographic and Oceanographic Service of the Chilean Navy (SHOA), we calculated a small scenario database of 100 scenarios (sources by Universidad de Chile) to provide data for a lightweight decision support system prototype (built by DLR). This work is part of the initiation project "Multi hazard information and early warning system in cooperation with Chile" and aims at sharing our experience from GITEWS with the Chilean partners.

Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

PubMed Central

Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and non-structural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums, photocells, trip wires etc. Event warning systems for debris flows have a strong linkage with debris-flow monitoring that is carried out for research purposes: the same sensors are often used for both monitoring and warning, although warning systems have higher requirements of robustness than monitoring systems. The paper presents a description of the sensors employed for debris-flow monitoring and event warning systems, with attention given to advantages and drawbacks of different types of sensors. PMID:27879828

New Decision Support for Landslide and Other Disaster Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, U. S.; Keiser, K.; Wu, Y.; Kaulfus, A.; Srinivasan, K.; Anderson, E. R.; McEniry, M.

2013-12-01

An Event-Driven Data delivery (ED3) framework has been created that provides reusable services and configurations to support better data preparedness for decision support of disasters and other events by rapidly providing pre-planned access to data, special processing, modeling and other capabilities, all executed in response to criteria-based events. ED3 facilitates decision makers to plan in advance of disasters and other types of events for the data necessary for decisions and response activities. A layer of services provided in the ED3 framework allows systems to support user definition of subscriptions for data plans that will be triggered when events matching specified criteria occur. Pre-planning for data in response to events lessens the burden on decision makers in the aftermath of an event and allows planners to think through the desired processing for specialized data products. Additionally the ED3 framework provides support for listening for event alerts and support for multiple workflow managers that provide data and processing functionality in response to events. Landslides are often costly and, at times, deadly disaster events. Whereas intense and/or sustained rainfall is often the primary trigger for landslides, soil type and slope are also important factors in determining the location and timing of slope failure. Accounting for the substantial spatial variability of these factors is one of the major difficulties when predicting the timing and location of slope failures. A wireless sensor network (WSN), developed by NASA SERVIR and USRA, with peer-to-peer communication capability and low power consumption, is ideal for high spatial in situ monitoring in remote locations. In collaboration with the University of Huntsville at Alabama, WSN equipped with accelerometer, rainfall and soil moisture sensors is being integrated into an end-to-end landslide warning system. The WSN is being tested to ascertain communication capabilities and the density of nodes required depending upon the nature of terrain and land cover. The performance of a water table model, to be utilized in the end-to-end system, is being evaluated by comparing against landslides that occurred during the 6th and 7th of May, 2003 and 20th and 21st of April, 2011. The model provides a deterministic assessment of slope stability by evaluating horizontal and vertical transport of underground water and associated weight bearing capacity. In the proposed end-to-end system, the model will be coupled to the WSN, and the in situ data collected will be used to drive the model. The output from the model could be communicated back to the WSN providing the capability of generating warning of possible events to the ED3 framework to trigger additional data retrieval or the processing of additional models based on decision maker's ED3 preparedness plans. NASA's Applied Science Program has funded a feasibility study of the ED3 technology and as a result the capability is on track be integrated into existing decision support systems, with an initial reference implementation hosted at the Global Hydrology Resource Center, a NASA distributed active archive center (DAAC).

Consensus Recommendations for Systematic Evaluation of Drug-Drug Interaction Evidence for Clinical Decision Support

PubMed Central

Scheife, Richard T.; Hines, Lisa E.; Boyce, Richard D.; Chung, Sophie P.; Momper, Jeremiah; Sommer, Christine D.; Abernethy, Darrell R.; Horn, John; Sklar, Stephen J.; Wong, Samantha K.; Jones, Gretchen; Brown, Mary; Grizzle, Amy J.; Comes, Susan; Wilkins, Tricia Lee; Borst, Clarissa; Wittie, Michael A.; Rich, Alissa; Malone, Daniel C.

2015-01-01

Background Healthcare organizations, compendia, and drug knowledgebase vendors use varying methods to evaluate and synthesize evidence on drug-drug interactions (DDIs). This situation has a negative effect on electronic prescribing and medication information systems that warn clinicians of potentially harmful medication combinations. Objective To provide recommendations for systematic evaluation of evidence from the scientific literature, drug product labeling, and regulatory documents with respect to DDIs for clinical decision support. Methods A conference series was conducted to develop a structured process to improve the quality of DDI alerting systems. Three expert workgroups were assembled to address the goals of the conference. The Evidence Workgroup consisted of 15 individuals with expertise in pharmacology, drug information, biomedical informatics, and clinical decision support. Workgroup members met via webinar from January 2013 to February 2014. Two in-person meetings were conducted in May and September 2013 to reach consensus on recommendations. Results We developed expert-consensus answers to three key questions: 1) What is the best approach to evaluate DDI evidence?; 2) What evidence is required for a DDI to be applicable to an entire class of drugs?; and 3) How should a structured evaluation process be vetted and validated? Conclusion Evidence-based decision support for DDIs requires consistent application of transparent and systematic methods to evaluate the evidence. Drug information systems that implement these recommendations should be able to provide higher quality information about DDIs in drug compendia and clinical decision support tools. PMID:25556085

Cigarette graphic warning labels increase both risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement.

PubMed

Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Tusler, Martin

2018-02-01

Cigarette graphic warning labels elicit negative emotion, which increases risk perceptions through multiple processes. We examined whether this emotion simultaneously affects motivated cognitions like smoking myth endorsement (e.g. 'exercise can undo the negative effects of smoking') and perceptions of cigarette danger versus other products. 736 adult and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers viewed one of three warning label types (text-only, low emotion graphic or high emotion graphic) four times over two weeks. Emotional reactions to the warnings were reported during the first and fourth exposures. Participants reported how often they considered the warnings, smoking myth endorsement, risk perceptions and perceptions of cigarette danger relative to smokeless tobacco and electronic cigarettes. In structural equation models, emotional reactions influenced risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement through two processes. Emotion acted as information about risk, directly increasing smoking risk perceptions and decreasing smoking myth endorsement. Emotion also acted as a spotlight, motivating consideration of the warning information. Warning consideration increased risk perceptions, but also increased smoking myth endorsement. Emotional reactions to warnings decreased perceptions of cigarette danger relative to other products. Emotional reactions to cigarette warnings increase smoking risk perceptions, but also smoking myth endorsement and misperceptions that cigarettes are less dangerous than potentially harm-reducing tobacco products.

Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

PubMed Central

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J.; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J.; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W. Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748

ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

Eye Tracking Outcomes in Tobacco Control Regulation and Communication: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Meernik, Clare; Jarman, Kristen; Wright, Sarah Towner; Klein, Elizabeth G; Goldstein, Adam O; Ranney, Leah

2016-10-01

In this paper we synthesize the evidence from eye tracking research in tobacco control to inform tobacco regulatory strategies and tobacco communication campaigns. We systematically searched 11 databases for studies that reported eye tracking outcomes in regards to tobacco regulation and communication. Two coders independently reviewed studies for inclusion and abstracted study characteristics and findings. Eighteen studies met full criteria for inclusion. Eye tracking studies on health warnings consistently showed these warnings often were ignored, though eye tracking demonstrated that novel warnings, graphic warnings, and plain packaging can increase attention toward warnings. Eye tracking also revealed that greater visual attention to warnings on advertisements and packages consistently was associated with cognitive processing as measured by warning recall. Eye tracking is a valid indicator of attention, cognitive processing, and memory. The use of this technology in tobacco control research complements existing methods in tobacco regulatory and communication science; it also can be used to examine the effects of health warnings and other tobacco product communications on consumer behavior in experimental settings prior to the implementation of novel health communication policies. However, the utility of eye tracking will be enhanced by the standardization of methodology and reporting metrics.

Eye Tracking Outcomes in Tobacco Control Regulation and Communication: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Meernik, Clare; Jarman, Kristen; Wright, Sarah Towner; Klein, Elizabeth G.; Goldstein, Adam O.; Ranney, Leah

2016-01-01

Objective In this paper we synthesize the evidence from eye tracking research in tobacco control to inform tobacco regulatory strategies and tobacco communication campaigns. Methods We systematically searched 11 databases for studies that reported eye tracking outcomes in regards to tobacco regulation and communication. Two coders independently reviewed studies for inclusion and abstracted study characteristics and findings. Results Eighteen studies met full criteria for inclusion. Eye tracking studies on health warnings consistently showed these warnings often were ignored, though eye tracking demonstrated that novel warnings, graphic warnings, and plain packaging can increase attention toward warnings. Eye tracking also revealed that greater visual attention to warnings on advertisements and packages consistently was associated with cognitive processing as measured by warning recall. Conclusions Eye tracking is a valid indicator of attention, cognitive processing, and memory. The use of this technology in tobacco control research complements existing methods in tobacco regulatory and communication science; it also can be used to examine the effects of health warnings and other tobacco product communications on consumer behavior in experimental settings prior to the implementation of novel health communication policies. However, the utility of eye tracking will be enhanced by the standardization of methodology and reporting metrics. PMID:27668270

Technical-Information Products for a National Volcano Early Warning System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guffanti, Marianne; Brantley, Steven R.; Cervelli, Peter F.; Nye, Christopher J.; Serafino, George N.; Siebert, Lee; Venezky, Dina Y.; Wald, Lisa

2007-01-01

Introduction Technical outreach - distinct from general-interest and K-12 educational outreach - for volcanic hazards is aimed at providing usable scientific information about potential or ongoing volcanic activity to public officials, businesses, and individuals in support of their response, preparedness, and mitigation efforts. Within the context of a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) (Ewert et al., 2005), technical outreach is a critical process, transferring the benefits of enhanced monitoring and hazards research to key constituents who have to initiate actions or make policy decisions to lessen the hazardous impact of volcanic activity. This report discusses recommendations of the Technical-Information Products Working Group convened in 2006 as part of the NVEWS planning process. The basic charge to the Working Group was to identify a web-based, volcanological 'product line' for NVEWS to meet the specific hazard-information needs of technical users. Members of the Working Group were: *Marianne Guffanti (Chair), USGS, Reston VA *Steve Brantley, USGS, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory HI *Peter Cervelli, USGS, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage AK *Chris Nye, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and Alaska Volcano Observatory, Fairbanks AK *George Serafino, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs MD *Lee Siebert, Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC *Dina Venezky, USGS, Volcano Hazards Team, Menlo Park CA *Lisa Wald, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Golden CO

Appetitive drives for ultra-processed food products and the ability of text warnings to counteract consumption predispositions.

PubMed

David, Isabel A; Krutman, Laura; Fernández-Santaella, María Carmen; Andrade, Jéssica R; Andrade, Eduardo B; Oliveira, Leticia; Pereira, Mirtes G; Gomes, Fabio S; Gleiser, Sonia; Oliveira, José M; Araújo, Renata L; Volchan, Eliane; Braga, Filipe

2018-02-01

The present study aimed to (i) assess the appetitive drives evoked by the visual cues of ultra-processed food and drink products and (ii) investigate whether text warnings reduce appetitive drives and consumers' reported intentions to eat or drink ultra-processed products. In Study I, a well-established psychometric tool was applied to estimate the appetitive drives associated with ultra-processed products using sixty-four image representations. Sixteen product types with four exemplars of a given product were included. Pictures from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS) served as controls. The two exemplars of each product type rated as more appetitive were selected for investigation in the second study. Study II assessed the impact of textual warnings on the appetitive drive towards these thirty-two exemplars. Each participant was exposed to two picture exemplars of the same product type preceded by a text warning or a control text. After viewing each displayed picture, the participants reported their emotional reactions and their intention to consume the product. Controlled classroom experiments SUBJECTS: Undergraduate students (Study I: n 215, 135 women; Study II: n 98, 52 women). In Study I, the pictures of ultra-processed products prompted an appetitive motivation associated with the products' nutritional content. In Study II, text warnings were effective in reducing the intention to consume and the appetitive drive evoked by ultra-processed products. This research provides initial evidence favouring the use of text warnings as a public policy tool to curb the powerful influence of highly appetitive ultra-processed food cues.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice.

PubMed

Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; McCall, Philip J; Sánchez Tejeda, Gustavo; Lloyd, Linda S; Hakim, Lokman; Bowman, Leigh R; Horstick, Olaf; Coelho, Giovanini

2016-09-01

Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan.

Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

2014-05-01

Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement of the earth flow site will be monitored by differential GPS to get high precision information on displacements of marked points. Photogrammtetry based on octocopter surveys will provide spatial information on movement patterns. A similar approach will be followed for the debris flow catchment. Here, the focus lies on a monitoring of the landslide failures in the source area which prepares the material for subsequent debris flow transport. In addition to the methods already mentioned, repeated terrestrial laserscanning campaigns will be used to monitor geomorphological changes at all sites. All important data, which can be single measurements, episodic or continuous monitoring data for a given point (e.g. rainfall, inclination) or of spatial character (e.g. LiDAR measurements), are collected and analysed on an external server. Automatic data analysis methods, such as progressive failure analysis, are carried out automatically based on field measurements. The data and results from all monitoring sites are visualised on a web-based platform which enables registered users to analyse the respective information in near-real-time. Moreover, thresholds can be determined which trigger automated warning messages to the involved scientists if thresholds are exceeded by field measurements. The described system will enable scientists and decision-makers to access the latest data from the monitoring systems. Automatic alarms are raised when thresholds are exceeded to inform them about potentially hazardous changes. Thereby, a more efficient hazard management and early warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, rockfall, debris flow, earth flow, monitoring, early warning system.

An Assessment of Capacity, Gaps and Opportunities toward Building a Global Early Warning System for Flood Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Adler, R.; Huffman, G.

2007-12-01

Many governmental emergency management agencies or non-governmental organizations need real-time information on emerging disasters for preparedness and response. However, progress in warnings for hydrologic disasters has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of rainfall fluxes continuously over space and time, due largely to insufficient ground monitoring networks, long delay in data transmission and absence of data sharing protocols among many geopolitically trans-boundary basins. In addition, in-situ gauging stations are often washed away by the very floods they are designed to monitor, making reconstruction of gauges a common post-flood activity around the world. In reality, remote sensing precipitation estimates may be the only source of rainfall information available over much of the globe, particularly for vulnerable countries in the tropics where abundant extreme rain storms and severe flooding events repeat every year. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and weather radar sensors. Today, remote sensing imagery acquired and processed in real time can provide near-real-time rainfall fluxes at relatively fine spatiotemporal scales (kilometers to tens of kilometers and 30-minute to 3-hour). These new suites of rainfall products have the potential to support daily decision-making in analysis of hydrologic hazards. This talk will address several key issues, including remote sensing rainfall retrieval and data assimilation, for hydrologists to develop alternative satellite-based flood warning systems that may supplement in-situ infrastructure when conventional data sources are denied due to natural or administrative causes. This talk will also assess a module-structure global flood prediction system that has been running at real-time by integrating remote sensing forcing data with simplified hydrological models, in an effort to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building cost-effective flood warning systems for the data-spares regions of the world. The real-time outlook of hazardous floods will quickly disseminate through an open-access web-interface to many agencies and organizations for their daily decision-making, with the potential to save human life and reduce economic impacts. The interactive Web interface will also show close-up maps of the disaster risks overlaid on population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool.

Towards Actionable Waterborne and Vector-borne Disease Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitchik, B. F.

2015-12-01

Numerous studies have shown that remote sensing (RS) and Earth System Models (ESM) can make important contributions to the analysis, monitoring and prediction of waterborne and vector-borne illnesses. Unsurprisingly, however, the great majority of these studies have been proof-of-concept investigations, and vanishingly few have been translated into operational and utilized disease early warning systems. To some extent this is simply an example of the general challenge of translating research findings into decision-relevant operations. Disease early warning, however, entails specific challenges that distinguish it from many other fields of environmental monitoring and prediction. Some of these challenges stem from predictability and data constraints, while others relate to the difficulty of communicating predictions and the particularly high price of false alarms. This presentation will review progress on the translation of analysis to decision making, identify avenues for enhancing forecast utility, and propose priorities for future RS and ESM investments in disease monitoring and prediction.

Real-time decision support systems: the famine early warning system network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James P.

2010-01-01

A multi-institutional partnership, the US Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides routine monitoring of climatic, agricultural, market, and socioeconomic conditions in over 20 countries. FEWS NET supports and informs disaster relief decisions that impact millions of people and involve billions of dollars. In this chapter, we focus on some of FEWS NET’s hydrologic monitoring tools, with a specific emphasis on combining “low frequency” and “high frequency” assessment tools. Low frequency assessment tools, tied to water and food balance estimates, enable us to evaluate and map long-term tendencies in food security. High frequency assessments are supported by agrohydrologic models driven by satellite rainfall estimates, such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). Focusing on eastern Africa, we suggest that both these high and low frequency approaches are necessary to capture the interaction of slow variations in vulnerability and the relatively rapid onset of climatic shocks.

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-06-01

The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Parallel Processing of Numerical Tsunami Simulations on a High Performance Cluster based on the GDAL Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, Matthias; Jankowski, Cedric; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

2014-05-01

Thousands of numerical tsunami simulations allow the computation of inundation and run-up along the coast for vulnerable areas over the time. A so-called Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) [1] contains this large number of simulations in text file format. In order to visualize these wave propagations the scenarios have to be reprocessed automatically. In the TRIDEC project funded by the seventh Framework Programme of the European Union a Virtual Scenario Database (VSDB) and a Matching Scenario Database (MSDB) were established amongst others by the working group of the University of Bologna (UniBo) [1]. One part of TRIDEC was the developing of a new generation of a Decision Support System (DSS) for tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) [2]. A working group of the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences was responsible for developing the Command and Control User Interface (CCUI) as central software application which support operator activities, incident management and message disseminations. For the integration and visualization in the CCUI, the numerical tsunami simulations from MSDB must be converted into the shapefiles format. The usage of shapefiles enables a much easier integration into standard Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Since also the CCUI is based on two widely used open source products (GeoTools library and uDig), whereby the integration of shapefiles is provided by these libraries a priori. In this case, for an example area around the Western Iberian margin several thousand tsunami variations were processed. Due to the mass of data only a program-controlled process was conceivable. In order to optimize the computing efforts and operating time the use of an existing GFZ High Performance Computing Cluster (HPC) had been chosen. Thus, a geospatial software was sought after that is capable for parallel processing. The FOSS tool Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL/OGR) was used to match the coordinates with the wave heights and generates the different shapefiles for certain time steps. The shapefiles contain afterwards lines for visualizing the isochrones of the wave propagation and moreover, data about the maximum wave height and the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) at the coast. Our contribution shows the entire workflow and the visualizing results of the-processing for the example region Western Iberian ocean margin. [1] Armigliato A., Pagnoni G., Zaniboni F, Tinti S. (2013), Database of tsunami scenario simulations for Western Iberia: a tool for the TRIDEC Project Decision Support System for tsunami early warning, Vol. 15, EGU2013-5567, EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna (Austria). [2] Löwe, P., Wächter, J., Hammitzsch, M., Lendholt, M., Häner, R. (2013): The Evolution of Service-oriented Disaster Early Warning Systems in the TRIDEC Project, 23rd International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference - ISOPE-2013, Anchorage (USA).

[Combined behavioural and neuroscientific insights can improve anti-tobacco strategies].

PubMed

Soriano, Alice; Rieu, Dorothée; Oullier, Olivier

2013-11-01

In France, cognitive science (e.g., eye-tracking) and neuroscience (e.g., functional neuroimaging) are not used to develop and test anti-tobacco strategies. The newly found knowledge in behavioral and brain sciences could provide valuable insights in the understanding of attentional, emotional, memorization and decision-making processes at play when tobacco addicts are exposed to prevention messages. We argue that neuroscientific methods should be used in the fight against tobacco to better design and evaluate the impact of measures such as combined text and graphic (shock) warnings, neutral packets and support to people who want to stop smoking. © 2013 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004-2014.

PubMed

Okal, Emile A

2015-10-28

Since the catastrophic Sumatra-Andaman tsunami took place in 2004, 16 other tsunamis have resulted in significant damage and 14 in casualties. We review the fundamental changes that have affected our command of tsunami issues as scientists, engineers and decision-makers, in the quest for improved wisdom in this respect. While several scientific paradigms have had to be altered or abandoned, new algorithms, e.g. the W seismic phase and real-time processing of fast-arriving seismic P waves, give us more powerful tools to estimate in real time the tsunamigenic character of an earthquake. We assign to each event a 'wisdom index' based on the warning issued (or not) during the event, and on the response of the population. While this approach is admittedly subjective, it clearly shows several robust trends: (i) we have made significant progress in our command of far-field warning, with only three casualties in the past 10 years; (ii) self-evacuation by educated populations in the near field is a key element of successful tsunami mitigation; (iii) there remains a significant cacophony between the scientific community and decision-makers in industry and government as documented during the 2010 Maule and 2011 Tohoku events; and (iv) the so-called 'tsunami earthquakes' generating larger tsunamis than expected from the size of their seismic source persist as a fundamental challenge, despite scientific progress towards characterizing these events in real time. © 2015 The Author(s).

Using fear appeals in warning labels to promote responsible gambling among VLT players: the key role of depth of information processing.

PubMed

Munoz, Yaromir; Chebat, Jean-Charles; Suissa, Jacob Amnon

2010-12-01

Video lottery terminals (VLT) are a highly lucrative gambling format, but at the same time they are among the most hazardous. Previous research has shown that threatening warnings may be an appropriate approach for promoting protective behavior. The present study explores the potential benefits of threatening warnings in the fight against compulsive gambling. A 4 × 2 factorial design experiment was used to test our model based on both Elaboration Likelihood Model and Protection Motivation Theory. 258 VLT adult players (58% males, 42% females) with various degrees of problem gambling were exposed to three threat levels (plus a control condition) from two different sources (i.e., either a medical source or a source related to the provider of VLT's). Our results show that both higher threat warnings and the medical source of warnings enhance Depth of Information Processing. It was also found that Depth of Information Processing affects positively attitude change and compliance intentions. The theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model.

PubMed

Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

2017-03-02

The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable.

Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model

PubMed Central

Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

2017-01-01

The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

Do larger graphic health warnings on standardised cigarette packs increase adolescents’ cognitive processing of consumer health information and beliefs about smoking-related harms?

PubMed Central

White, Victoria; Williams, Tahlia; Faulkner, Agatha; Wakefield, Melanie

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the impact of plain packaging of cigarettes with enhanced graphic health warnings on Australian adolescents’ cognitive processing of warnings and awareness of different health consequences of smoking. Methods Cross-sectional school-based surveys conducted in 2011 (prior to introduction of standardised packaging, n=6338) and 2013 (7–12 months afterwards, n=5915). Students indicated frequency of attending to, reading, thinking or talking about warnings. Students viewed a list of diseases or health effects and were asked to indicate whether each was caused by smoking. Two—‘kidney and bladder cancer’ and ‘damages gums and teeth’—were new while the remainder had been promoted through previous health warnings and/or television campaigns. The 60% of students seeing a cigarette pack in previous 6 months in 2011 and 65% in 2013 form the sample for analysis. Changes in responses over time are examined. Results Awareness that smoking causes bladder cancer increased between 2011 and 2013 (p=0.002). There was high agreement with statements reflecting health effects featured in previous warnings or advertisements with little change over time. Exceptions to this were increases in the proportion agreeing that smoking was a leading cause of death (p<0.001) and causes blindness (p<0.001). The frequency of students reading, attending to, thinking or talking about the health warnings on cigarette packs did not change. Conclusions Acknowledgement of negative health effects of smoking among Australian adolescents remains high. Apart from increased awareness of bladder cancer, new requirements for packaging and health warnings did not increase adolescents’ cognitive processing of warning information. PMID:28407612

Nutritional surveillance.

PubMed

Mason, J B; Mitchell, J T

1983-01-01

The concept of nutritional surveillance is derived from disease surveillance, and means "to watch over nutrition, in order to make decisions that lead to improvements in nutrition in populations". Three distinct objectives have been defined for surveillance systems, primarily in relation to problems of malnutrition in developing countries: to aid long-term planning in health and development; to provide input for programme management and evaluation; and to give timely warning of the need for intervention to prevent critical deteriorations in food consumption. Decisions affecting nutrition are made at various administrative levels, and the uses of different types of nutritional surveillance information can be related to national policies, development programmes, public health and nutrition programmes, and timely warning and intervention programmes. The information should answer specific questions, for example concerning the nutritional status and trends of particular population groups.Defining the uses and users of the information is the first essential step in designing a system; this is illustrated with reference to agricultural and rural development planning, the health sector, and nutrition and social welfare programmes. The most usual data outputs are nutritional outcome indicators (e.g., prevalence of malnutrition among preschool children), disaggregated by descriptive or classifying variables, of which the commonest is simply administrative area. Often, additional "status" indicators, such as quality of housing or water supply, are presented at the same time. On the other hand, timely warning requires earlier indicators of the possibility of nutritional deterioration, and agricultural indicators are often the most appropriate.DATA COME FROM TWO MAIN TYPES OF SOURCE: administrative (e.g., clinics and schools) and household sample surveys. Each source has its own advantages and disadvantages: for example, administrative data often already exist, and can be disaggregated to village level, but are of unknown representativeness and often cannot be linked with other variables of interest; sample surveys provide integrated data of more or less known representativeness, but sample sizes usually do not allow disaggregation to, for example, specific villages. A combination of these sources, with a capability for ad hoc surveys (formal or informal) is often the best solution. Finally, much depends on adequate facilities for data analysis, even though simple, comprehensible data outputs are what is required. Intersectoral cooperation is needed to provide realistic options for the decision-making process.

Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

2017-11-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Replicable effects of primes on human behavior.

PubMed

Payne, B Keith; Brown-Iannuzzi, Jazmin L; Loersch, Chris

2016-10-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported online in Journal of Experimental Psychology: General on Oct 31 2016 (see record 2016-52334-001). ] The effect of primes (i.e., incidental cues) on human behavior has become controversial. Early studies reported counterintuitive findings, suggesting that primes can shape a wide range of human behaviors. Recently, several studies failed to replicate some earlier priming results, raising doubts about the reliability of those effects. We present a within-subjects procedure for priming behavior, in which participants decide whether to bet or pass on each trial of a gambling game. We report 6 replications (N = 988) showing that primes consistently affected gambling decisions when the decision was uncertain. Decisions were influenced by primes presented visibly, with a warning to ignore the primes (Experiments 1 through 3) and with subliminally presented masked primes (Experiment 4). Using a process dissociation procedure, we found evidence that primes influenced responses through both automatic and controlled processes (Experiments 5 and 6). Results provide evidence that primes can reliably affect behavior, under at least some conditions, without intention. The findings suggest that the psychological question of whether behavior priming effects are real should be separated from methodological issues affecting how easily particular experimental designs will replicate. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved

In-vehicle decision support to reduce crashes at rural thru-stop intersections.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

Purpose: Within the context of thru-stop intersections, investigate the feasibility and future promise of warning : systems inside the vehicle, where interfaces are best placed, and what modalities are most effective (visual versus : haptic). Methods...

Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrieval Assessment with Dropsondes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.

2017-01-01

Map surface wind speed over wide swath (approximately 50-60 km, for aircraft greater than FL600) in hurricanes. Provide research data for understanding hurricane structure, and intensity change. Enable improved forecasts, warnings, and decision support.

Birth, growth and progresses through the last twelve years of a regional scale landslide warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanti, Riccardo; Segoni, Samuele; Rosi, Ascanio; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Catani, Filippo

2017-04-01

SIGMA is a regional landslide warning system that operates in the Emilia Romagna region (Italy). In this work, we depict its birth and the continuous development process, still ongoing, after over a decade of operational employ. Traditionally, landslide rainfall thresholds are defined by the empirical correspondence between a rainfall database and a landslide database. However, in the early stages of the research, a complete catalogue of dated landslides was not available. Therefore, the prototypal version of SIGMA was based on rainfall thresholds defined by means of a statistical analysis performed over the rainfall time series. SIGMA was purposely designed to take into account both shallow and deep seated landslides and it was based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of accumulated rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering. The statistical distribution of the rainfall series was analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) were used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. In the warning system, the measured and the forecasted rainfall are compared with these thresholds. Since the response of slope stability to rainfall may be complex, SIGMA is based on a decision algorithm aimed at identifying short but exceptionally intense rainfalls and mild but exceptionally prolonged rains: while the former are commonly associated with shallow landslides, the latter are mainly associated with deep-seated landslides. In the first case, the rainfall threshold is defined by high σ values and short durations (i.e. a few days); in the second case, σ values are lower but the decision algorithm checks long durations (i.e. some months). The exact definition of "high" and "low" σ values and of "short" and "long" duration varied through time according as it was adjusted during the evolution of the model. Indeed, since 2005, a constant work was carried out to gather and organize newly available data (rainfall recordings and landslides occurred) and to use them to define more robust relationships between rainfalls and landslide triggering, with the final aim to increase the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system. The updated rainfall and landslide database were used to periodically perform a quantitative validation and to analyze the errors affecting the system forecasts. The errors characterization was used to implement a continuous process of updating and modification of SIGMA, that included: - Main model upgrades (generalization from a pilot test site to the whole Emilia Romagna region; calibration against well documented landslide events to define specific σ levels for each territorial units; definition of different alert levels according to the number of expected - Ordinary updates (periodically, the new landslide and rainfall data were used to re-calibrate the thresholds, taking into account a more robust sample). - Model tuning (set up of the optimal version of the decisional algorithm, including different definitions of "long" and "short" periods; selection of the optimal reference rain gauge for each Territorial Unit; modification of the boundaries of some territorial - Additional features (definition of a module that takes into account the effect of snow melt and snow accumulation; coupling with a landslide susceptibility model to improve the spatial accuracy of the model). - Various performance tests (including the comparison with alternate versions of SIGMA or with thresholds based on rainfall intensity and duration). This process has led to an evolution of the warning system and to a documented improvement of its forecasting effectiveness. Landslide forecasting at regional scale is a very complex task, but as time passes by and with the systematic gathering of new substantial data and the continuous progresses of research, uncertainties can be progressively reduced and a warning system can be set that increases its performances and reliability with time.

Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

2012-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

Management of natural crises with choreography and orchestration of federated warning-systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haener, Rainer; Waechter, Joachim; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme focuses on real-time intelligent information management in earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration of existing resources, components and systems. Key challenge for TRIDEC is establishing a network of independent systems, cooperatively interacting as a collective in a system-of-systems (SoS). For this purpose TRIDEC adopts enhancements of service-oriented architecture (SOA) principles in terms of an event-driven architecture (EDA) design (SOA 2.0). In this way TRIDEC establishes large-scale concurrent and intelligent information management of a manifold of crisis types by focusing on the integration of autonomous, task-oriented and geographically distributed systems. To this end TRIDEC adapts both ways SOA 2.0 offers: orchestration and choreography. In orchestration, a central knowledge-based processing framework takes control over the involved services and coordinates their execution. Choreography on the other hand avoids central coordination. Rather, each system involved in the SoS follows a global scenario without a single point of control but specifically defined (enacted, agreed upon) trigger conditions. More than orchestration choreography allows collaborative business processes of various heterogeneous sub-systems (e.g. cooperative decision making) by concurrent Complex Event Processing (CEP) and asynchronous communication. These types of interaction adapt the concept of decoupled relationships between information producers (e.g. sensors and sensor systems) and information consumers (e.g. warning systems and warning dissemination systems). Asynchronous communication is useful if a participant wants to trigger specific actions by delegating the responsibility (separation of concerns) for the action to a dedicated participant. Implementing CEP, none of the participants has to know anything about the others. Information is filtered from a stream of manifold events (triggers) assigned to certain and well-defined topics. Both, orchestration and choreography are based on the specification of conversations, which comprise the information model, the roles and responsibilities of all participants, services and business processes, and interaction scenarios. By the maintenance of conversations in commonly available and semantically enabled registries it is possible to establish a federation of systems that is able to provide dynamic, yet coherent behaviour. TRIDEC establishes a reliable and adaptive SoS (concurrent processing of events and activities) which exposes emergent behaviour (e.g. intelligent and adaptive monitoring strategies, cooperative decision making or dynamic system configuration) even in case of partly system failures. In a process of self-organising (task balancing and dynamic delegation of responsibilities) as SoS is able to secure the reliability and responsiveness for real-time, long running & durable monitoring activities. Concepts like Design by Contract (DbC), service level agreements (SLA), redundancy- and failover-strategies as well as a comprehensive knowledge-based description of all facets of all potential interactions ensure the interoperability, robustness and expected behaviour of the TRIDEC SoS even if it is composed of managerial independent sub-systems. Beyond these features, the adaptability of a SoS offers scalability and virtualization regarding both, systems and domains. Composability and re-use of functionality can be achieved easily even across domain-boundaries.

A decision framework for coordinating bioterrorism planning: lessons from the BioNet program.

PubMed

Manley, Dawn K; Bravata, Dena M

2009-01-01

Effective disaster preparedness requires coordination across multiple organizations. This article describes a detailed framework developed through the BioNet program to facilitate coordination of bioterrorism preparedness planning among military and civilian decision makers. The authors and colleagues conducted a series of semistructured interviews with civilian and military decision makers from public health, emergency management, hazardous material response, law enforcement, and military health in the San Diego area. Decision makers used a software tool that simulated a hypothetical anthrax attack, which allowed them to assess the effects of a variety of response actions (eg, issuing warnings to the public, establishing prophylaxis distribution centers) on performance metrics. From these interviews, the authors characterized the information sources, technologies, plans, and communication channels that would be used for bioterrorism planning and responses. The authors used influence diagram notation to describe the key bioterrorism response decisions, the probabilistic factors affecting these decisions, and the response outcomes. The authors present an overview of the response framework and provide a detailed assessment of two key phases of the decision-making process: (1) pre-event planning and investment and (2) incident characterization and initial responsive measures. The framework enables planners to articulate current conditions; identify gaps in existing policies, technologies, information resources, and relationships with other response organizations; and explore the implications of potential system enhancements. Use of this framework could help decision makers execute a locally coordinated response by identifying the critical cues of a potential bioterrorism event, the information needed to make effective response decisions, and the potential effects of various decision alternatives.

Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

2013-04-01

The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-12-01

With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

Advertising, computers, and pharmacy liability. A Michigan court's decision has ramifications for pharmaceutical care.

PubMed

Cacciatore, G G

1996-11-01

Arbor Drugs, Inc., advertised that its computer could detect dangerous drug interactions. A pharmacist failed to warn a patient accordingly and the patient suffered a stroke as a result of an interaction between tranylcypromine and a decongestant. The Michigan Court of Appeals held that this failure to warn was actionable under the theories of negligence and fraud as well as under the Michigan Consumer Protection Act. The court's basic message is that pharmacies may be held legally responsible for preventing harm when they represent themselves as being capable of doing so.

Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Or Should I Wait and See? Influences on Wildfire Evacuation Decisions.

PubMed

McCaffrey, Sarah; Wilson, Robyn; Konar, Avishek

2017-11-23

As climate change has contributed to longer fire seasons and populations living in fire-prone ecosystems increase, wildfires have begun to affect a growing number of people. As a result, interest in understanding the wildfire evacuation decision process has increased. Of particular interest is understanding why some people leave early, some choose to stay and defend their homes, and others wait to assess conditions before making a final decision. Individuals who tend to wait and see are of particular concern given the dangers of late evacuation. To understand what factors might influence different decisions, we surveyed homeowners in three areas in the United States that recently experienced a wildfire. The Protective Action Decision Model was used to identify a suite of factors previously identified as potentially relevant to evacuation decisions. Our results indicate that different beliefs about the efficacy of a particular response or action (evacuating or staying to defend), differences in risk attitudes, and emphasis on different cues to act (e.g., official warnings, environmental cues) are key factors underlying different responses. Further, latent class analysis indicates there are two general classes of individuals: those inclined to evacuate and those inclined to stay, and that a substantial portion of each class falls into the wait and see category. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development and Operation of Space-Based Disease Early Warning Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

John, M. M.

2010-12-01

Millions of people die every year from preventable diseases such as malaria and cholera. Pandemics put the entire world population at risk and have the potential to kill thousands and cripple the global economy. In light of these dangers, it is fortunate that the data and imagery gathered by remote sensing satellites can be used to develop models that predict areas at risk for outbreaks. These warnings can help decision makers to distribute preventative medicine and other forms of aid to save lives. There are already many Earth observing satellites in orbit with the ability to provide data and imagery. Researchers have created a number of models based on this information, and some are being used in real-life situations. These capabilities should be further developed and supported by governments and international organizations to benefit as many people as possible. To understand the benefits and challenges of disease early warning models, it is useful to understand how they are developed. A number of steps must occur for satellite data and imagery to be used to prevent disease outbreaks; each requires a variety of inputs and may include a range of experts and stakeholders. This paper discusses the inputs, outputs, and basic processes involved in each of six main steps to developing models, including: identifying and validating links between a disease and environmental factors, creating and validating a software model to predict outbreaks, transitioning a model to operational use, using a model operationally, and taking action on the data provided by the model. The paper briefly overviews past research regarding the link between remote sensing data and disease, and identifies ongoing research in academic centers around the world. The activities of three currently operational models are discussed, including the U.S. Department of Defense Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (DoD-GEIS), NASA carries out its Malaria Modeling and Surveillance program, and the The Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) program. Based on the understanding of basic processes as well as the experience of currently operational programs, the paper offers a number of recommendations to governments and researchers for future development of operational disease early warning programs.

The GNSS-based Ground Tracking System (GTS) of GFZ; from GITEWS to PROTECTS and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falck, Carsten; Merx, Alexander; Ramatschi, Markus

2013-04-01

Introduction An automatic system for the near real-time determination and visualization of ground motions, respectively co-seismic deformations of the Earth's surface, was developed by GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) within the project GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System). The system is capable to deliver 3D-displacement vectors for locations with appropriate GPS-equipment in the vicinity of an earthquake's epicenter with a delay of only a few minutes. These vectors can help to assess the earthquake causing tectonic movements, which must be known to make reliable early warning predictions, e.g., concerning the generation of tsunami waves. The GTS (Ground Tracking System) has been integrated into InaTEWS (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and is in operation at the national warning center in Jakarta since November 2008. After the end of the project GITEWS GFZ continues to support the GTS in Indonesia within the frame of PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning Systems) and recently some new developments have been introduced. We now aim to make further use of the achievements made, e.g., by developing a license model for the GTS software package. Motivation After the Tsunami of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project to develop the main components for a tsunami early warning system in Indonesia. The GFZ, as the consortial leader of GITEWS, had several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component, which since then is known as the GTS (Ground Tracking System). System benefit The ground motion information delivered by the GTS is a valuable source for a fast understanding of an earthquake's mechanism with a high relevance to assess the probability and magnitude of a potentially following tsunami. The system may detect highest displacement vector values, where seismic systems may tend to have problems with the determination of earthquake magnitudes, e.g. close to an earthquake epicenter. By considering displacement vectors the GTS may significantly support the decision finding process whether a tsunami has been generated. Brief system description The GTS may be divided into three main components: 1) The data acquisition component receives and manages data from GNSS-stations being transferred either in real-time, file based or both in parallel, including, e.g., format conversions and real-time spreading to other services. It also acquires the most actual auxiliary data needed for data processing, e.g., GNSS-satellite orbit data or, in case of internet problems, generates them from ephemeris broadcast transmissions, received by the connected GNSS-network stations. 2) The automatic GNSS-data processing unit calculates coordinate time series for all GNSS-stations providing data. The processing kernel is the robust working and well supported »Bernese GPS Software«, but wrapped into adaptations for a fully automatic near real-time processing. The final products of this unit are 3D-displacement vectors, which are calculated as differences to the mean coordinates of the latest timespan prior to an earthquake. 3) The graphical user interface (GUI) of the GTS supports both, a quick view for all staff members at the warning centre (24h/7d shifts) and deeper analysis by experts. The states of the connected GNSS-networks and of the automatic data processing system are displayed. Other views are available, e.g., to check intermediate processing steps or historic data. The GTS final products, the 3D-displacement vectors, are displayed as arrows and bars on a map view. The GUI system is implemented as a web-based application and allows all views to be displayed on many screens at the same time, even at remote locations. Acknowledgements The projects GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) and PROTECTS (Project for Training, Education and Consulting for Tsunami Early Warning System) are carried out by a large group of scientists and engineers from (GFZ) German Research Centre for Geosciences and its partners from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), the GKSS Research Centre, the Konsortium Deutsche Meeresforschung (KDM), the Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), the United Nations University (UNU), the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and other international partners. Funding is provided by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), Grant 03TSU01 and 03TSU07.

Research and application of a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system: A case study in China.

PubMed

Li, Chen; Zhu, Zhijie

2018-06-01

As one of the most serious meteorological disasters in modern society, air pollution has received extensive attention from both citizens and decision-makers. With the complexity of pollution components and the uncertainty of prediction, it is both critical and challenging to construct an effective and practical early-warning system. In this paper, a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system for pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis was proposed. To improve the efficiency of the system, an advanced attribute selection method based on fuzzy evaluation and rough set theory was developed to select the main pollution contaminants for cities. Moreover, a hybrid model composed of the theory of "decomposition and ensemble", an extreme learning machine and an advanced heuristic algorithm was developed for pollution contaminant prediction; it provides deterministic and interval forecasting for tackling the uncertainty of future air quality. Daily pollution contaminants of six major cities in China were selected as a dataset to evaluate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. The superior experimental performance determined by the values of several error indexes illustrated that the proposed early-warning system was of great effectiveness and efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Working memory constraints on the processing of syntactic ambiguity.

PubMed

MacDonald, M C; Just, M A; Carpenter, P A

1992-01-01

We propose a model that explains how the working-memory capacity of a comprehender can constrain syntactic parsing and thereby affect the processing of syntactic ambiguities. The model's predictions are examined in four experiments that measure the reading times for two constructions that contain a temporary syntactic ambiguity. An example of the syntactic ambiguity is The soldiers warned about the dangers . . . ; the verb warned may either be the main verb, in which case soldiers is the agent; or the verb warned may introduce a relative clause, in which case soldiers is the patient of warned rather than the agent, as in The soldiers warned about the dangers conducted the midnight raid. The model proposes that both alternative interpretations of warned are initially activated. However, the duration for which both interpretations are maintained depends, in part, on the reader's working-memory capacity, which can be assessed by the Reading Span task (Daneman & Carpenter, 1980). The word-by-word reading times indicate that all subjects do additional processing after encountering an ambiguity, suggesting that they generate both representations. Furthermore, readers with larger working-memory capacities maintain both representations for some period of time (several words), whereas readers with smaller working-memory capacities revert to maintaining only the more likely representation.

Effects of a computerized feedback intervention on safety performance by junior doctors: results from a randomized mixed method study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The behaviour of doctors and their responses to warnings can inform the effective design of Clinical Decision Support Systems. We used data from a University hospital electronic prescribing and laboratory reporting system with hierarchical warnings and alerts to explore junior doctors’ behaviour. The objective of this trial was to establish whether a Junior Doctor Dashboard providing feedback on prescription warning information and laboratory alerting acceptance rates was effective in changing junior doctors’ behaviour. Methods A mixed methods approach was employed which included a parallel group randomised controlled trial, and individual and focus group interviews. Junior doctors below the specialty trainee level 3 grade were recruited and randomised to two groups. Every doctor (N = 42) in the intervention group was e-mailed a link to a personal dashboard every week for 4 months. Nineteen participated in interviews. The 44 control doctors did not receive any automated feedback. The outcome measures were the difference in responses to prescribing warnings (of two severities) and laboratory alerting (of two severities) between the months before and the months during the intervention, analysed as the difference in performance between the intervention and the control groups. Results No significant differences were observed in the rates of generating prescription warnings, or in the acceptance of laboratory alarms. However, responses to laboratory alerts differed between the pre-intervention and intervention periods. For the doctors of Foundation Year 1 grade, this improvement was significantly (p = 0.002) greater in the group with access to the dashboard (53.6% ignored pre-intervention compared to 29.2% post intervention) than in the control group (47.9% ignored pre-intervention compared to 47.0% post intervention). Qualitative interview data indicated that while junior doctors were positive about the electronic prescribing functions, they were discriminating in the way they responded to other alerts and warnings given that from their perspective these were not always immediately clinically relevant or within the scope of their responsibility. Conclusions We have only been able to provide weak evidence that a clinical dashboard providing individualized feedback data has the potential to improve safety behaviour and only in one of several domains. The construction of metrics used in clinical dashboards must take account of actual work processes. Trial registration ISRCTN: ISRCTN72253051 PMID:23734871

Frequency and Content of Conversations About Pictorial Warnings on Cigarette Packs.

PubMed

Morgan, Jennifer C; Southwell, Brian G; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Golden, Shelley D; Brewer, Noel T

2018-06-07

Social interactions are a key mechanism through which health communication efforts, including pictorial cigarette pack warnings, may exert their effects. We sought to better understand social interactions elicited by pictorial cigarette pack warnings. A controlled trial randomly assigned US adult smokers (n = 2149) to have their cigarette packs labeled with pictorial or text-only warnings for 4 weeks. Smokers completed surveys during the baseline visit and each of the subsequent 4 weekly visits. Smokers with pictorial warnings on their packs had more conversations throughout the trial compared to those with text-only warnings (8.2 conversations vs 5.0, p<.01). The highest number of conversations occurred during the first week. Smokers with pictorial warnings were more likely than those with text-only warnings to discuss the health effects of smoking, whether the warnings would make them want to quit and whether the warnings would make others want to quit (all p < .05). Smokers were more likely to describe pictorial warnings as scary, gross, or depressing and gloomy during conversations than text-only warnings (all p < .05). Pictorial warnings sparked more conversations about the warnings, the health effects of smoking, and quitting smoking than text-only warnings. These social interactions may extend the reach of pictorial warnings beyond the targeted smoker and may be one of the processes by which pictorial warnings have impact. Health communication can influence behavior by changing social interactions. Our trial characterized social interactions about pictorial cigarette pack warnings with a large longitudinal sample in a real-world setting. Understanding these conversations can inform the United States and other countries as they improve existing warnings and help tobacco control policy makers and health communication theorists understand how social interactions triggered by warnings affect smoking.

Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi:10.1002/qj.2463

An Intelligent Decision System for Intraoperative Somatosensory Evoked Potential Monitoring.

PubMed

Fan, Bi; Li, Han-Xiong; Hu, Yong

2016-02-01

Somatosensory evoked potential (SEP) is a useful, noninvasive technique widely used for spinal cord monitoring during surgery. One of the main indicators of a spinal cord injury is the drop in amplitude of the SEP signal in comparison to the nominal baseline that is assumed to be constant during the surgery. However, in practice, the real-time baseline is not constant and may vary during the operation due to nonsurgical factors, such as blood pressure, anaesthesia, etc. Thus, a false warning is often generated if the nominal baseline is used for SEP monitoring. In current practice, human experts must be used to prevent this false warning. However, these well-trained human experts are expensive and may not be reliable and consistent due to various reasons like fatigue and emotion. In this paper, an intelligent decision system is proposed to improve SEP monitoring. First, the least squares support vector regression and multi-support vector regression models are trained to construct the dynamic baseline from historical data. Then a control chart is applied to detect abnormalities during surgery. The effectiveness of the intelligent decision system is evaluated by comparing its performance against the nominal baseline model by using the real experimental datasets derived from clinical conditions.

Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

PubMed

Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adolescent girls and young adult women's perceptions of superslims cigarette packaging: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Ford, Allison; Moodie, Crawford; Purves, Richard; MacKintosh, Anne Marie

2016-01-08

To explore perceptions of superslims packaging, including compact 'lipstick' packs, in line with 3 potential impacts identified within the impact assessment of the European Union (EU) Tobacco Products Directive: appeal, harm perceptions and the seriousness of warning of health risks. Qualitative focus group study. Informal community venues in Scotland, UK. 75 female non-smokers and occasional smokers (age range 12-24). Compact 'lipstick'-type superslims packs were perceived most positively and rated as most appealing. They were also viewed as less harmful than more standard sized cigarette packs because of their smaller size and likeness to cosmetics. Additionally, 'lipstick' packs were rated as less serious in terms of warning about the health risks associated with smoking, either because the small font size of the warnings was difficult to read or because the small pack size prevented the text on the warnings from being displayed properly. Bright pack colours and floral designs were also thought to detract from the health warning. As superslims packs were found to increase appeal, mislead with respect to level of harm, and undermine the on-pack health warnings, this provides support for the decision to ban 'lipstick'-style cigarette packs in the EU and has implications for policy elsewhere. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

2017-12-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Evaluation of the effectiveness of a variable advisory speed system on queue mitigation in work zones.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-04-01

Variable Advisory Speed Systems (VASS) provide drivers with advanced warning regarding traffic speeds downstream to help them make better decisions. Vehicle use on highways is increasing and the need to improve highways brings increased construction ...

Adolescents' response to pictorial warnings on the reverse panel of cigarette packs: a repeat cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Moodie, Crawford; Mackintosh, Anne M; Hastings, Gerard

2015-03-01

The UK (UK) became the third country in the European Union to require pictorial warnings on the back of cigarette packs, in October 2008. A repeat cross-sectional survey was conducted with 11-16-year-olds in the UK between August and September 2008 (N=1401) and August and September 2011 (N=1373). At both waves the same text warnings appeared on the front and back of packs, with the only difference being the inclusion of images on the back of packs to support the text warnings in 2011. Warning related measures assessed were salience (noticing, looking closely at warnings), depth of processing (thinking about warnings, discussing them with others), comprehension and credibility (warning comprehensibility, believability and truthfulness), unaided recall, persuasiveness (warnings as a deterrent to smoking), avoidance techniques (eg, hiding packs) and a behavioural indicator (forgoing cigarettes due to warnings). For never smokers, warning persuasiveness and thinking about what warnings are telling them when the pack is in sight significantly increased from 2008 to 2011, but warning comprehensibility significantly decreased. For experimental smokers, there was a significant increase from 2008 to 2011 for warning persuasiveness, believing warnings and considering them truthful. For regular smokers, there were no significant changes from 2008 to 2011, except for an increase in hiding packs to avoid warnings and a decrease in warning salience. Including pictorial images on the back of cigarette packaging improved warning persuasiveness for never and experimental smokers, but had a negligible impact on regular smokers. The findings have implications for warning design. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The formulary process from a risk management perspective.

PubMed

Raber, Jack H

2010-06-01

During their evolution over the past 6 decades, hospital formularies have become more than a list of drugs that an institution keeps in stock. Today, an agent under formulary consideration must be examined not only in light of its relative efficacy, safety, and acquisition cost, but consideration must also be given to the potential indirect costs that accompany its use. Federal regulations have, for some drugs, added layers of administrative actions that must be followed to ensure their appropriate use. Examples of this are risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) and duties that may be implied or expressly addressed in the black-box warnings associated with some classes of agents and, in isolated instances, specific drugs within a given class. Regulatory interpretation of these programs and warnings has often led to the expectation that the institution providing the agent will implement effective protocols and procedures to minimize the risk of adverse events to a patient in addition to or in accordance with required programs such as REMS. The consequences for failing to meet this expectation can lead to regulatory sanctions; the potential also exists for liability exposure. Risk management principles apply to all levels of the decision-making process for evaluating a new agent for formulary inclusion or when reevaluating an agent's formulary status. Pharmacists play an important role in mitigating these risks by carefully evaluating every agent from a broader perspective.

An algorithm for power line detection and warning based on a millimeter-wave radar video.

PubMed

Ma, Qirong; Goshi, Darren S; Shih, Yi-Chi; Sun, Ming-Ting

2011-12-01

Power-line-strike accident is a major safety threat for low-flying aircrafts such as helicopters, thus an automatic warning system to power lines is highly desirable. In this paper we propose an algorithm for detecting power lines from radar videos from an active millimeter-wave sensor. Hough Transform is employed to detect candidate lines. The major challenge is that the radar videos are very noisy due to ground return. The noise points could fall on the same line which results in signal peaks after Hough Transform similar to the actual cable lines. To differentiate the cable lines from the noise lines, we train a Support Vector Machine to perform the classification. We exploit the Bragg pattern, which is due to the diffraction of electromagnetic wave on the periodic surface of power lines. We propose a set of features to represent the Bragg pattern for the classifier. We also propose a slice-processing algorithm which supports parallel processing, and improves the detection of cables in a cluttered background. Lastly, an adaptive algorithm is proposed to integrate the detection results from individual frames into a reliable video detection decision, in which temporal correlation of the cable pattern across frames is used to make the detection more robust. Extensive experiments with real-world data validated the effectiveness of our cable detection algorithm. © 2011 IEEE

REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

2014-05-01

Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

Social Interactions Sparked by Pictorial Warnings on Cigarette Packs

PubMed Central

Hall, Marissa G.; Peebles, Kathryn; Bach, Laura E.; Noar, Seth M.; Ribisl, Kurt M.; Brewer, Noel T.

2015-01-01

The Message Impact Framework suggests that social interactions may offer smokers the opportunity to process pictorial warnings on cigarette packs more deeply. We aimed to describe adult smokers’ social interactions about pictorial cigarette pack warnings in two longitudinal pilot studies. In Pilot Study 1, 30 smokers used cigarette packs with one of nine pictorial warnings for two weeks. In Pilot Study 2, 46 smokers used cigarette packs with one of five pictorial warnings for four weeks. Nearly all smokers (97%/96% in Pilot Study 1/2) talked about the warnings with other people, with the most common people being friends (67%/87%) and spouses/significant others (34%/42%). Pilot Study 2 found that 26% of smokers talked about the warnings with strangers. Discussions about the health effects of smoking and quitting smoking were more frequent during the first week of exposure to pictorial warnings than in the week prior to beginning the study (both p < 0.05). Pictorial warnings sparked social interactions about the warnings, the health effects of smoking, and quitting smoking, indicating that pictorial warnings may act as a social intervention reaching beyond the individual. Future research should examine social interactions as a potential mediator of the impact of pictorial warnings on smoking behavior. PMID:26506363

Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2015-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

How Childcare Providers Interpret "Reasonable Suspicion" of Child Abuse

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levi, Benjamin H.; Crowell, Kathryn; Walsh, Kerryann; Dellasega, Cheryl

2015-01-01

Background: Childcare providers are often "first responders" for suspected child abuse, and how they understand the concept of "reasonable suspicion" will influence their decisions regarding which warning signs warrant reporting. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate how childcare providers interpret the…

Dress Codes. Legal Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zirkel, Perry A.

2000-01-01

As illustrated by two recent decisions, the courts in the past decade have demarcated wide boundaries for school officials considering dress codes, whether in the form of selective prohibitions or required uniforms. Administrators must warn the community, provide legitimate justification and reasonable clarity, and comply with state law. (MLH)

GEONETCast Americas - Architecture

Science.gov Websites

, - Improving weather information, forecasting and warning, - Improving the management and protection of information as a basis for sound decision making, and will enhance delivery of benefits to society." as management of energy resources, - Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate

Application of Geographical Information Systems and Remote Sensing technologies for assessing and monitoring malaria risk.

PubMed

Ceccato, P; Connor, S J; Jeanne, I; Thomson, M C

2005-03-01

Despite over 30 years of scientific research, algorithm development and multitudes of publications relating Remote Sensing (RS) information with the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria, it is only in recent years that operational products have been adopted by malaria control decision-makers. The time is ripe for the wealth of research knowledge and products from developed countries be made available to the decision-makers in malarious regions of the globe where this information is urgently needed. This paper reviews the capability of RS to provide useful information for operational malaria early warning systems. It also reviews the requirements for monitoring the major components influencing emergence of malaria and provides examples of applications that have been made. Discussion of the issues that have impeded implementation on a global scale and how those barriers are disappearing with recent economic, technological and political developments are explored; and help pave the way for implementation of an integrated Malaria Early Warning System framework using RS technologies.

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

2007-01-01

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

NASA aviation safety reporting system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

Reports describing various types of communication problems are presented along with summaries dealing with judgment and decision making. Concerns relating to the ground proximity warning system are summarized and several examples of true terrain proximity warnings are provided. An analytic study of reports relating to profile descents was performed. Problems were found to be associated with charting and graphic presentation of the descents, with lack of uniformity of the descent procedures among facilities using them, and with the flight crew workload engendered by profile descents, particularly when additional requirements are interposed by air traffic control during the execution of the profiles. A selection of alert bulletins and responses to them were reviewed.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-03-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Coastal risk forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

2018-04-01

The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

Effect of warning placement on the information processing of college students reading an OTC drug facts panel.

PubMed

Bhansali, Archita H; Sangani, Darshan S; Mhatre, Shivani K; Sansgiry, Sujit S

2018-01-01

To compare three over-the-counter (OTC) Drug Facts panel versions for information processing optimization among college students. University of Houston students (N = 210) participated in a cross-sectional survey from January to May 2010. A current FDA label was compared to two experimental labels developed using the theory of CHREST to test information processing by re-positioning the warning information within the Drug Facts panel. Congruency was defined as placing like information together. Information processing was evaluated using the OTC medication Label Evaluation Process Model (LEPM): label comprehension, ease-of-use, attitude toward the product, product evaluation, and purchase intention. Experimental label with chunked congruent information (uses-directions-other information-warnings) was rated significantly higher than the current FDA label and had the best average scores among the LEPM information processing variables. If replications uphold these findings, the FDA label design might be revised to improve information processing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warner, R.E.

This paper seeks to provoke the thought of whether the battle manager of the future will be a human or a computer and where he/it will be located. The sensors, weapons, and problems with the missile-attack warning systems threat need to be understood before decisions can be made about the future. The author talks about technology driving the decisions and the time to make the decisions being key factors in space-battle management. He looks at when and how to kill a missile launched either from Soviet soil or space and the myriad of things that must happen before the battlemore » manager can make a decision: (1) the missile(s) must be detected; (2) then all the information about the missile(s) needs to be passed to the battle manager and all the decision makers in the chain of command, including the National Command Authority. It is emphasize the communication process must be fast and not affected by either jamming or nuclear bursts, and it also must be designed so that if a part is destroyed the system is still responsive to the battle manager. Questions such as should only the United States be protected by this system or should it include our allies; and then who are they and should an international body control the system are asked. The author finally concludes that the battle manager of the future will be located in space.« less

Corruption Early Prevention: Decision Support System for President of the Republic of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasmoko; Widhoyoko, S. A.; Ariyanto, S.; Indrianti, Y.; Noerlina; Muqsith, A. M.; Alamsyah, M.

2017-01-01

Corruption is an extraordinary crime, and then the prevention must also be extraordinary, simultaneously (national) in the form of early warning that involves all elements; government, industry, and society. To realize it the system needs to be built which in this study is called the Corruption Early Prevention (CEP) as a Decision Support System for President of the Republic of Indonesia. This study aims to examine 1) how is the construct of the Corruption Early Prevention as a Decision Support System for President of the Republic of Indonesia?, and 2) how is the design form of the system of Corruption Early Prevention as a Decision Support System for President of Republic of Indonesia? The research method is using Neuro-Research which is the collaboration of qualitative and quantitative research methods and the model development of Information Technology (IT). The research found that: 1) the construct of CEP is theoretically feasible, valid and reliable by content to be developed in the context of the prevention of corruption in Indonesia as an early prevention system that diagnoses Indonesia simultaneously and in real time, and 2) the concept of system design and business process of CEP is predicted to be realized in the IT-based program.

Warning Statements and Safety Practices among Manufacturers and Distributors of Electronic Cigarette Liquids in the United States.

PubMed

Fagan, Pebbles; Pokhrel, Pallav; Herzog, Thaddeus A; Guy, Mignonne C; Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K; Trinidad, Dennis R; Cassel, Kevin; Jorgensen, Dorothy; Lynch, Tania; Felicitas-Perkins, Jamie Q; Palafox, Sherilyn; Hamamura, Faith; Maloney, Sarah; Degree, Kaylah; Sterling, Kymberle; Moolchan, Eric; Clanton, Mark S; Eissenberg, Thomas

2017-05-18

Prior to the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) regulation of electronic cigarettes and warning statements related to nicotine addiction, there was no critical examination of manufacturer/distributor voluntary practices that could potentially inform FDA actions aimed to protect consumers. This study examined the content of warning statements and safety characteristics of electronic cigarette liquid bottles using a national sample. Research staff randomly selected four electronic cigarette liquid manufacturers/distributors from four U.S. geographic regions. Staff documented the characteristics of product packaging and content of warning statements on 147 electronic cigarette liquids (0-30 mg/ml of nicotine) purchased online from 16 manufacturers/distributors in April of 2016. Data showed that 97.9% of the electronic cigarette liquid bottles included a warning statement, most of which focused on nicotine exposure rather than health. Only 22.4% of bottles used a warning statement that indicated the product "contained nicotine". Of bottles that advertised a nicotine-based concentration of 12 mg/ml, 26% had a warning statements stated that the product "contains nicotine". None of the statements that indicated that the product "contained nicotine" stated that nicotine was "addictive". All bottles had a safety cap and 12% were in plastic shrink-wrap. Fifty-six percent of the websites had a minimum age requirement barrier that prevented under-aged persons from entering. Most manufacturers/distributors printed a warning statement on electronic cigarette liquid bottles, but avoided warning consumers about the presence and the addictiveness of nicotine. Studies are needed to examine manufacturer/distributor modifications to product packaging and how packaging affects consumer behaviors. These data can inform future FDA requirements related to the packaging and advertising of e-cigarette liquids; regulation related to the content of warning statements, including exposure warning statements, which are not currently mandated; and requirements on websites or language on packaging to help manufacturers adhere to the minimum age of purchase regulation. The data can also be used to help FDA develop additional guidance on the framing of statements on packaging that helps consumers make informed decisions about purchasing the product or protecting young people from use or unintentional exposure to the product. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Eye-Tracking Evidence that Happy Faces Impair Verbal Message Comprehension: The Case of Health Warnings in Direct-to-Consumer Pharmaceutical Television Commercials

PubMed Central

Russell, Cristel Antonia; Swasy, John L.; Russell, Dale Wesley; Engel, Larry

2017-01-01

Risk warning or disclosure information in advertising is only effective in correcting consumers’ judgments if enough cognitive capacity is available to process that information. Hence, comprehension of verbal warnings in TV commercials may suffer if accompanied by positive visual elements. This research addresses this concern about cross-modality interference in the context of direct-to-consumer (DTC) pharmaceutical commercials in the United States by experimentally testing whether positive facial expressions reduce consumers’ understanding of the mandated health warning. A content analysis of a sample of DTC commercials reveals that positive facial expressions are more prevalent during the verbal warning act of the commercials than during the other acts. An eye-tracking experiment conducted with specially produced DTC commercials, which vary the valence of characters’ facial expressions during the health warning, provides evidence that happy faces reduce objective comprehension of the warning. PMID:29269979

A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

PubMed Central

Song, Yulei; Yan, Xuedong

2016-01-01

The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave) and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI) model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities. PMID:27735875

Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

2012-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

77 FR 47697 - General Motors, LLC, Receipt of Petition for Decision of Inconsequential Noncompliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-09

...; and \\3\\ Cadillac SRX and Saab 9-4X vehicles have a push button start/stop switch. (3) The crank power... ride in the back seat.'' In addition, the label on the vehicle's sun visor warns against placing a rear...

Forecasts, warnings and social response to flash floods: Is temporality a major problem? The case of the September 2005 flash flood in the Gard region (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutoff, C.; Anquetin, S.; Ruin, I.; Chassande, M.

2009-09-01

Flash floods are complex phenomena. The atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of the phenomenon are not completely understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of and warnings for these events. On the other hand warning and crisis response to such violent and fast events is not a straightforward process. In both the social and physical aspect of the problem, space and time scales involved either in hydrometeorology, human behavior and social organizations sciences are of crucial importance. Forecasters, emergency managers, mayors, school superintendents, school transportation managers, first responders and road users, all have different time and space frameworks that they use to take emergency decision for themselves, their group or community. The integration of space and time scales of both the phenomenon and human activities is therefore a necessity to better deal with questions as forecasting lead-time and warning efficiency. The aim of this oral presentation is to focus on the spatio-temporal aspects of flash floods to improve our understanding of the event dynamic compared to the different scales of the social response. The authors propose a framework of analysis to compare the temporality of: i) the forecasts (from Méteo-France and from EFAS (Thielen et al., 2008)), ii) the meteorological and hydrological parameters, iii) the social response at different scales. The September 2005 event is particularly interesting for such analysis. The rainfall episode lasted nearly a week with two distinct phases separated by low intensity precipitations. Therefore the Méteo-France vigilance bulletin where somehow disconnected from the local flood’s impacts. Our analysis focuses on the timings of different types of local response, including the delicate issue of school transportation, in regard to the forecasts and the actual dynamic of the event.

Visual gut punch: persuasion, emotion, and the constitutional meaning of graphic disclosure.

PubMed

Goodman, Ellen P

2014-01-01

The ability of government to "nudge" with information mandates, or merely to inform consumers of risks, is circumscribed by First Amendment interests that have been poorly articulated. New graphic cigarette warning labels supplied courts with the first opportunity to assess the informational interests attending novel forms of product disclosures. The D.C. Circuit enjoined them as unconstitutional, compelled by a narrative that the graphic labels converted government from objective informer to ideological persuader, shouting its warning to manipulate consumer decisions. This interpretation will leave little room for graphic disclosure and is already being used to challenge textual disclosure requirements (such as county-of-origin labeling) as unconstitutional. Graphic warning and the increasing reliance on regulation-by-disclosure present new free speech quandaries related to consumer autonomy, state normativity, and speaker liberty. This Article examines the distinct goals of product disclosure requirements and how those goals may serve to vindicate, or to frustrate, listener interests. I argue that many disclosures, and especially warnings, are necessarily both normative and informative, expressing value along with fact. It is not the existence of a norm that raises constitutional concern but rather the insistence on a controversial norm. Turning to the means of disclosure, this Article examines how emotional and graphic communication might change the constitutional calculus. Using autonomy theory and the communications research on speech processing, I conclude that disclosures do not bypass reason simply by reaching for the heart. If large graphic labels are unconstitutional, it will be because of undue burden on the speaker, not because they are emotionally powerful. This Article makes the following distinct contributions to the compelled commercial speech literature: critiques the leading precedent, Zauderer v. Office of Disciplinary Counsel, from a consumer autonomy standpoint; brings to bear empirical communications research on questions of facticity and rationality in emotional and graphic communications; and teases apart and distinguishes among various free speech dangers and contributions of commercial disclosure mandates with a view towards informing policy, law, and research.

Tracking and nowcasting convective precipitation cells at European scale for transregional warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Vera; Tüchler, Lukas

2013-04-01

A transregional overview of the current weather situation is considered as highly valuable information to assist forecasters as well as official authorities for disaster management in their decision making processes. The development of the European-wide radar composite OPERA enables for the first time a coherent object-oriented tracking and nowcasting of intense precipitation cells in real time at continental scale and at a resolution of 2 x 2 km² and 15 minutes. Recently, the object-oriented cell-tracking tool A-TNT (Austrian Thunderstorm Nowcasting Tool) has been developed at ZAMG. A-TNT utilizes the method of ec-TRAM [1]. It consists of two autonomously operating routines, which identify, track and nowcast radar- and lightning-cells separately. The two independent outputs are combined to a coherent storm monitoring and nowcasting in a final step. Within the framework of HAREN (Hazard Assessment based on Rainfall European Nowcasts), which is a project funded by the EC Directorate General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection, A-TNT has been adapted to OPERA radar data. The objective of HAREN is the support of forecasters and official authorities in their decision-making processes concerning precipitation induced hazards with pan-European information. This study will present (1) the general performance of the object-oriented approach for thunderstorm tracking and nowcasting on continental scale giving insight into its current capabilities and limitations and (2) the utilization of object-oriented cell information for automated precipitation warnings carried out within the framework of HAREN. Data collected from April to October 2012 are used to assess the performance of cell-tracking based on radar data. Furthermore, the benefit of additional lightning information provided by the European Cooperation for Lightning Detection (EUCLID) for thunderstorm tracking and nowcasting will be summarized in selected analyses. REFERENCES: [1] Meyer, V. K., H. Höller, and H. D. Betz 2012: Automated thunderstorm tracking and nowcasting: utilization of three-dimensional lightning and radar data. Manuscript accepted for publication in ACPD.

Assessing Operational Total Lightning Visualization Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Darden, Christopher B.; Nadler, David J.

2010-01-01

In May 2003, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program successfully provided total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Huntsville, Alabama. The major accomplishment was providing the observations in real-time to the NWS in the native Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) decision support system. Within days, the NALMA data were used to issue a tornado warning initiating seven years of ongoing support to the NWS' severe weather and situational awareness operations. With this success, SPoRT now provides real-time NALMA data to five forecast offices as well as working to transition data from total lightning networks at Kennedy Space Center and the White Sands Missile Range to the surrounding NWS offices. The only NALMA product that has been transitioned to SPoRT's partner NWS offices is the source density product, available at a 2 km resolution in 2 min intervals. However, discussions with users of total lightning data from other networks have shown that other products are available, ranging from spatial and temporal variations of the source density product to the creation of a flash extent density. SPoRT and the Huntsville, Alabama NWS are evaluating the utility of these variations as this has not been addressed since the initial transition in 2003. This preliminary analysis will focus on what products will best support the operational warning decision process. Data from 19 April 2009 are analyzed. On this day, severe thunderstorms formed ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread severe weather was observed, primarily south of the Tennessee River with multiple, weak tornadoes, numerous severe hail reports, and wind. This preliminary analysis is the first step in evaluation which product(s) are best suited for operations. The ultimate goal is selecting a single product for use with all total lightning networks to streamline training and science sharing.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Experiences from coordinated national-level landslide and flood forecasting in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krøgli, Ingeborg; Fleig, Anne; Glad, Per; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé

2015-04-01

While flood forecasting at national level is quite well established and operational in many countries worldwide, landslide forecasting at national level is still seldom. Examples of coordinated flood and landslide forecasting are even rarer. Most of the time flood and landslide forecasters work separately (investigating, defining thresholds, and developing models) and most of the time without communication with each other. One example of coordinated operational early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides is found at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in Norway. In this presentation we give an introduction to the two separate but tightly collaborative EWSs and to the coordination of these. The two EWSs are being operated from the same office, every day using similar hydro-meteorological prognosis and hydrological models. Prognosis and model outputs on e.g. discharge, snow melt, soil water content and exceeded landslide thresholds are evaluated in a web based decision-making tool (xgeo.no). The experts performing forecasts are hydrologists, geologists and physical geographers. A similar warning scale, based on colors (green, yellow, orange and red) is used for both EWSs, however thresholds for flood and landslide warning levels are defined differently. Also warning areas may not necessary be the same for both hazards and depending on the specific meteorological event, duration of the warning periods can differ. We present how knowledge, models and tools, but also human and economic resources are being shared between the two EWSs. Moreover, we discuss challenges faced in the communication of warning messages using recent flood and landslide events as examples.

Young Adult Smokers' Neural Response to Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels.

PubMed

Green, Adam E; Mays, Darren; Falk, Emily B; Vallone, Donna; Gallagher, Natalie; Richardson, Amanda; Tercyak, Kenneth P; Abrams, David B; Niaura, Raymond S

2016-06-01

The study examined young adult smokers' neural response to graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packs using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Nineteen young adult smokers ( M age 22.9, 52.6% male, 68.4% non-white, M 4.3 cigarettes/day) completed pre-scan, self-report measures of demographics, cigarette smoking behavior, and nicotine dependence, and an fMRI scanning session. During the scanning session participants viewed cigarette pack images (total 64 stimuli, viewed 4 seconds each) that varied based on the warning label (graphic or visually occluded control) and pack branding (branded or plain packaging) in an event-related experimental design. Participants reported motivation to quit (MTQ) in response to each image using a push-button control. Whole-brain blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) functional images were acquired during the task. GWLs produced significantly greater self-reported MTQ than control warnings ( p < .001). Imaging data indicate stronger neural activation in response to GWLs than the control warnings at a cluster-corrected threshold p <.001 in medial prefrontal cortex, amygdala, medial temporal lobe, and occipital cortex. There were no significant differences in response to warnings on branded versus plain cigarette packages. In this sample of young adult smokers, GWLs promoted neural activation in brain regions involved in cognitive and affective decision-making and memory formation and the effects of GWLs did not differ on branded or plain cigarette packaging. These findings complement other recent neuroimaging GWL studies conducted with older adult smokers and with adolescents by demonstrating similar patterns of neural activation in response to GWLs among young adult smokers.

Efficient near-real-time monitoring of 3D surface displacements in complex landslide scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele; Baldo, Marco; Lollino, Giorgio

2013-04-01

Ground deformation measurements play a key role in monitoring activities of landslides. A wide spectrum of instruments and methods is nowadays available, going from in-situ to remote sensing approaches. In emergency scenarios, monitoring is often based on automated instruments capable to achieve accurate measurements, possibly with a very high temporal resolution, in order to achieve the best information about the evolution of the landslide in near-real-time, aiming at early warning purposes. However, the available tools for a rapid and efficient exploitation, understanding and interpretation of the retrieved measurements is still a challenge. This issue is particularly relevant in contexts where monitoring is fundamental to support early warning systems aimed at ensuring safety to people and/or infrastructures. Furthermore, in many cases the results obtained might be of difficult reading and divulgation, especially when people of different backgrounds are involved (e.g. scientists, authorities, civil protection operators, decision makers, etc.). In this work, we extend the concept of automatic and near real time from the acquisition of measurements to the data processing and divulgation, in order to achieve an efficient monitoring of surface displacements in landslide scenarios. We developed an algorithm that allows to go automatically and in near-real-time from the acquisition of 3D displacements on a landslide area to the efficient divulgation of the monitoring results via WEB. This set of straightforward procedures is called ADVICE (ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning), and has been already successfully applied in several emergency scenarios. The algorithm includes: (i) data acquisition and transfer protocols; (ii) data collection, filtering, and validation; (iii) data analysis and restitution through a set of dedicated software, such as ©3DA [1]; (iv) recognition of displacement/velocity threshold and early warning (v) short term prediction of the temporal evolution of the landslide, e.g. through the failure forecast method; (vi) publication of the results on a dedicated webpage. Here we show the results gained in the area of Montaguto (southern Italy, ca. 100 km northeast from Naples), where a large-scale earthflow reached the bottom of the valley and severely damaged the SP90 provincial road, as well as the national railroad [2]. We discuss how the use of ADVICE has speed-up and facilitated the understanding of the landslide evolution, the communication of the monitoring results to the partners, and consequently the decision-making process in a critical landslide scenario. [1] Manconi, A., P. Allasia, D. Giordan, M. Baldo, G. Lollino and A. Corazza, Near-real-time 3D surface deformation model obtained via RTS measurements. In Procedings of World Landslide Forum 2, October 3-9, 2011, Rome, Italy. [2] Giordan, D., P. Allasia, A. Manconi, M. Baldo, G. Lollino, M. Santangelo, M. Cardinali and F. Guzzetti, "Morphological evolution of a large earthflow: the Montaguto landslide southern Italy", Geomorphology, in press.

Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

2017-12-01

Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

Patient perspectives on informed decision-making surrounding dialysis initiation

PubMed Central

Song, Mi-Kyung; Lin, Feng-Chang; Gilet, Constance A.; Arnold, Robert M.; Bridgman, Jessica C.; Ward, Sandra E.

2013-01-01

Background Careful patient–clinician shared decision-making about dialysis initiation has been promoted, but few studies have addressed patient perspectives on the extent of information provided and how decisions to start dialysis are made. Methods Ninety-nine maintenance dialysis patients recruited from 15 outpatient dialysis centers in North Carolina completed semistructured interviews on information provision and communication about the initiation of dialysis. These data were examined with content analysis. In addition, informed decision-making (IDM) scores were created by summing patient responses (yes/no) to 10 questions about the decision-making. Results The mean IDM score was 4.4 (of 10; SD = 2.0); 67% scored 5 or lower. Age at the time of decision-making (r = −0.27, P = 0.006), years of education (r = 0.24, P = 0.02) and presence of a warning about progressing to end-stage kidney disease (t = 2.9, P = 0.005) were significantly associated with IDM scores. Nearly 70% said that the risks and burdens of dialysis were not mentioned at all, and only one patient recalled that the doctor offered the option of not starting dialysis. While a majority (67%) said that they felt they had no choice about starting dialysis (because the alternative would be death) or about dialysis modality, only 21.2% said that they had felt rushed to make a decision. About one-third of the patients perceived that the decision to start dialysis and modality was already made by the doctor. Conclusions A majority of patients felt unprepared and ill-informed about the initiation of dialysis. Improving the extent of IDM about dialysis may optimize patient preparation prior to starting treatment and their perceptions about the decision-making process. PMID:23901048

Agricultural drought risk monitoring and yield loss forecast with remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Attila; Tamás, János; Fehér, János

2015-04-01

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP) have launched a joint Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) to improve monitoring and prevention of droughts. In the frame of this project this study focuses on identification of agricultural drought characteristics and elaborates a monitoring method (with application of remote sensing data), which could result in appropriate early warning of droughts before irreversible yield loss and/or quality degradation occur. The spatial decision supporting system to be developed will help the farmers in reducing drought risk of the different regions by plant specific calibrated drought indexes. The study area was the Tisza River Basin, which is located in Central Europe within the Carpathian Basin. For the investigations normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was used calculated from 16 day moving average chlorophyll intensity and biomass quantity data. The results offer concrete identification of remote sensing and GIS data tools for agricultural drought monitoring and forecast, which eventually provides information on physical implementation of drought risk levels. In the first step, we statistically normalized the crop yield maps and the MODIS satellite data. Then the drought-induced crop yield loss values were classified. The crop yield loss data were validated against the regional meteorological drought index values (SPI), the water management and soil physical data. The objective of this method was to determine the congruency of data derived from spectral data and from field measurements. As a result, five drought risk levels were developed to identify the effect of drought on yields: Watch, Early Warning, Warning, Alert and Catastrophe. In the frame of this innovation such a data link and integration, missing from decision process of IDMP, are established, which can facilitate the rapid spatial and temporal monitoring of meteorological, agricultural drought phenomena and its economic relations, increasing the time factors effectiveness of decision support system. This methodology will be extendable for other Central European countries when country specific data are available and entered into the system. This new drought risk monitoring and forecasting method is an improvement for hydrologists, meteorologists and farmers, allowing to set up a complex drought monitoring system, where for a given period and respective catchment area the expected yield loss can be predicted, and the role of vegetation in the hydrological cycle could be more precisely quantified. Based on the results more water-saving agricultural land use alternatives could be planned on drought areas.

Information on Blood Alcohol Concentration: Evaluation of Two Alcohol Nomograms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Werch, Chudley E.

1988-01-01

Compared utility of two common alcohol nomograms on impacting decisions regarding drinking, driving after drinking, knowledge of relationship between personal alcohol consumption and the legal level of intoxication, and consumer evaluation measures, to utility of alcohol information warning card. Nomograms were no more effective than cards warning…

Severe Weather Planning for Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Barbara McNaught; Strong, Christopher; Bunting, Bill

2008-01-01

Flash floods, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes occur with rapid onset and often no warning. Decisions must be made quickly and actions taken immediately. This paper provides tips for schools on: (1) Preparing for Severe Weather Emergencies; (2) Activating a Severe Weather Plan; (3) Severe Weather Plan Checklist; and (4) Periodic Drills and…

Security Controls Hurt Research, NAS Warns.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kolata, Gina

1982-01-01

A National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report found no evidence that leaks of technical information from universities or other research centers have damaged national security. However, in areas where control is warranted, decisions should be based on criteria. These criteria and issues related to security control and technological transfer are…

Early Warning Report: Use of Contractors to Conduct Clean Air Act Risk Management Program Inspections in Certain States Goes Against Court Decisions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #12-P-0376, March 28, 2012. The OIG is currently evaluating whether the EPA has adequate management controls for ensuring the effectiveness of its Clean Air Act (CAA) Section 112(r) risk management program inspections.

Dengue Contingency Planning: From Research to Policy and Practice

PubMed Central

Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Kroeger, Axel; Olliaro, Piero; McCall, Philip J.; Sánchez Tejeda, Gustavo; Lloyd, Linda S.; Hakim, Lokman; Bowman, Leigh R.; Horstick, Olaf; Coelho, Giovanini

2016-01-01

Background Dengue is an increasingly incident disease across many parts of the world. In response, an evidence-based handbook to translate research into policy and practice was developed. This handbook facilitates contingency planning as well as the development and use of early warning and response systems for dengue fever epidemics, by identifying decision-making processes that contribute to the success or failure of dengue surveillance, as well as triggers that initiate effective responses to incipient outbreaks. Methodology/Principal findings Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed. Conclusions/Significance Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan. PMID:27653786

Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

2009-12-01

Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or predictions but information on potential “futures” derived from past records, expert judgments, scenarios, and availability of mechanisms and capacity to use such information. Effective experimental climate services facilitate ongoing appraisals of knowledge needs for informing adaptation and mitigation options across sectors and across scenarios of near and longer-term future climates. Analyses show that climate service experiments drawing on data, applied research and prototyping functions of activities such as RISAs and RCCs are critical to developing the learning needed to inform and structure the flow of knowledge and understanding from problem definition and applications research to information delivery, use and evaluation. These activities effectively serve to inform services implementation when overarching cross-agency coordination, knowledge management, and innovation diffusion mechanisms such as afforded by NIDIS and the Coastal Services Center are engaged. We also demonstrate the importance of positioning climate research to engage and inform the decision-making process as society anticipates and responds to climate and its impacts.

Near Real-time Operational Use of eMODIS Expedited NDVI for Monitoring Applications and Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.

2010-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has requirements for near real-time monitoring of vegetation conditions for food security applications. Accurate and timely assessments of crop conditions are an important element of food security decision making. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center are utilizing a new Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset for operational monitoring of crop and pasture conditions in parts of the world where food availability is highly dependent on subsistence agriculture and animal husbandry. The expedited MODIS, or eMODIS, production system processes NDVI data using MODIS surface reflectance provided by the Land Atmosphere Near-real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE). Benefits of this production system include customized compositing schedules, near real-time data availability, and minimized re-sampling. FEWS NET has implemented a 10-day compositing scheme every five days to accommodate the need for timely information on vegetation conditions. The data are currently being processed at 250-meter spatial resolution for Central America, Hispaniola, and Africa. Data are further enhanced by the application of a temporal smoothing filter which helps remove contamination due to clouds and other atmospheric effects. The results of this near real-time monitoring capability have been the timely provision of NDVI and NDVI anomaly maps for each of the FEWS NET monitoring regions and the availability of a consistently processed dataset to aid crop assessment missions and to facilitate customized analyses of crop production, drought, and agro-pastoral conditions.

An Assessment of Coherence Between Early Warning and Response Systems and Serious Cross-Border Health Threats in the European Union and Turkey

PubMed Central

Elif Ekmekci, Perihan

2017-01-01

Disease outbreaks have attracted the attention of the public health community to early warning and response systems (EWRS) for communicable diseases and other cross-border threats to health. The European Union (EU) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have published regulations in this area. Decision 1082/2013/EU brought a new approach the management of public health threats in EU member states. Decision 1082/2013/EU brought several innovations, which included establishing a Health Security Committee; preparedness and response planning; joint procurement of medical countermeasures; ad hoc monitoring for biological, chemical, and environmental threats; EWRS; and recognition of an emergency situation and interoperability between various sectors. Turkey, as an acceding country to the EU and a member of the WHO, has been improving its national public health system to meet EU legislations and WHO standards. This article first explains EWRS as defined in Decision 1082/2013/EU and Turkey’s obligations to align its public health laws to the EU acquis. EWRS in Turkey are addressed, particularly their coherence with EU policies regarding preparedness and response, alert notification, and interoperability between health and other sectors. Finally, the challenges and limitations of the current Turkish system are discussed and further improvements are suggested. PMID:27511433

A Review of the Literature of the Process of Giving Warning with Discussion of Implications for Futurists.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koster, Francis

The paper presents a review of literature on warnings of social crises and applies the literature to selected crises predicted in America's future. It is intended for use by futurists and policy makers as they devise ways to help society cope with crises. Warnings are interpreted as combining statement of a problem with proposal of a course of…

The TRIDEC Virtual Tsunami Atlas - customized value-added simulation data products for Tsunami Early Warning generated on compute clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, P.; Hammitzsch, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wächter, J.

2012-04-01

The development of new Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) requires the modelling of spatio-temporal spreading of tsunami waves both recorded from past events and hypothetical future cases. The model results are maintained in digital repositories for use in TEWS command and control units for situation assessment once a real tsunami occurs. Thus the simulation results must be absolutely trustworthy, in a sense that the quality of these datasets is assured. This is a prerequisite as solid decision making during a crisis event and the dissemination of dependable warning messages to communities under risk will be based on them. This requires data format validity, but even more the integrity and information value of the content, being a derived value-added product derived from raw tsunami model output. Quality checking of simulation result products can be done in multiple ways, yet the visual verification of both temporal and spatial spreading characteristics for each simulation remains important. The eye of the human observer still remains an unmatched tool for the detection of irregularities. This requires the availability of convenient, human-accessible mappings of each simulation. The improvement of tsunami models necessitates the changes in many variables, including simulation end-parameters. Whenever new improved iterations of the general models or underlying spatial data are evaluated, hundreds to thousands of tsunami model results must be generated for each model iteration, each one having distinct initial parameter settings. The use of a Compute Cluster Environment (CCE) of sufficient size allows the automated generation of all tsunami-results within model iterations in little time. This is a significant improvement to linear processing on dedicated desktop machines or servers. This allows for accelerated/improved visual quality checking iterations, which in turn can provide a positive feedback into the overall model improvement iteratively. An approach to set-up and utilize the CCE has been implemented by the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) funded under the European Union's FP7. TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management. The addressed challenges include the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulations and data fusion tools. Additionally, TRIDEC adopts enhancements of Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) principles in terms of Event Driven Architecture (EDA) design. As a next step the implemented CCE's services to generate derived and customized simulation products are foreseen to be provided via an EDA service for on-demand processing for specific threat-parameters and to accommodate for model improvements.

Risk management policy and black-box warnings: a qualitative analysis of US FDA proceedings.

PubMed

Cook, Daniel M; Gurugubelli, Rama K; Bero, Lisa A

2009-01-01

The US FDA increasingly applies risk management to drug safety policy. Little is known about the process by which the FDA approves labelling changes. Although advisory committees can recommend any of the risk management tools, including the use of 'black-box warnings', it is unknown whether they deliberate on these questions or how they apply the principles of risk minimization or management during their considerations of drug licensing. To examine the process by which risk management is considered by the FDA, including the role of FDA advisory committees. We also aimed to identify and describe drug labelling changes and additions, including the prevalence of black-box warnings. We electronically obtained publicly available information regarding drug approvals, drug revisions and advisory committee meetings over 3 years (2004-6) from the FDA. Data in the form of meeting transcripts and full histories of labelling changes were collected on drugs discussed by advisory committees. We then searched and qualitatively analysed the meeting transcripts to identify themes in the discussion. We also created a database of all prescription drug labelling changes for 3 years and examined which drugs have had the most changes. We describe the risk management consideration process and report the frequency and characteristics of labelling changes. Excerpts from the transcripts are selected to illustrate both typical and atypical features of the discussion. A total of 174 black-box changes were made in the 3-year period of our study, of which 77 were new black-box warnings and 97 were revisions in black-box warnings. Of 77 new black-box warning additions, only 11 drugs were discussed by the advisory committees. Of the 17 most frequently revised drug labels in these 3 years, two were discussed in the advisory committee meetings. Advisory meeting discussions revealed confusion about black-box warnings and emphasized potential consequences of the warnings rather than their content. The safety labelling of drugs on the market is changed often. Panels of advisors consider only a few drugs, rarely discuss the labelling requirements, and display confusion about applying black-box warnings. The creation and application of black-box warnings on prescription medications should receive closer attention from the FDA and its advisors.

Criminal responsibility and predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siccardi, F.

2009-04-01

The Italian Civil Protection has developed a set of technologies and rules for issuing early warnings. The right to be protected from natural disasters is felt intensely by people. The evaluation of the size of the target areas and of the severity of events is subject to inherent uncertainty. Victims in areas and at times where early warnings are not provided for are possible. This causes, not always, but more and more frequently, people complaining in courts against civil protection decision makers. The concept of real time uncertainty and conditional probability is difficult to be understood in courts, where the timeliness and effectiveness of the alert is under judgement. A reflection on scientific and technological capabilities is needed.

Obesity Prevention at the Point of Purchase

PubMed Central

Cohen, Deborah A.; Lesser, Lenard I.

2017-01-01

The point of purchase is when people may make poor and impulsive decisions about what and how much to buy and consume. Since point of purchase strategies frequently work through non-cognitive processes, people are often unable to recognize and resist them. Because people lack insight into how marketing practices interfere with their ability to routinely eat healthy, balanced diets, public health entities should protect consumers from point of purchase strategies. We describe four point of purchase policy options including standardized portion sizes; standards for meals that are sold as a bundle, e.g. “combo meals”; placement and marketing restrictions on highly processed low-nutrient foods; and explicit warning labels. Adoption of such policies could contribute significantly to the prevention of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases. We also discuss how the policies could be implemented, along with who might favor or oppose them. Many of the policies can be implemented locally, while preserving consumer choice. PMID:26910361

An Examination of Juveniles' Miranda Abilities: Investigating Differences in Miranda Recall and Reasoning.

PubMed

Rogers, Richard; Steadham, Jennifer A; Carter, Rachel M; Henry, Sarah A; Drogin, Eric Y; Robinson, Emily V

2016-07-01

Juvenile suspects are routinely expected to possess an accurate recall of written or oral Miranda warnings. This study addresses the Miranda-related comprehension recall and reasoning of legally involved juveniles. It is the first juvenile research to compare systematically two levels of complexity for Miranda warnings with the three modalities (oral, written, or combined) of administration. Unexpectedly, easily read written warnings marginally outperformed the combined modality. In order to examine Miranda reasoning, three juvenile groups were operationalized: impaired, questionable, and likely adequate. Predictably, the impaired and questionable groups possessed significantly lower verbal abilities than the likely-adequate reasoning group. In addition, the likely-adequate group exhibited the strongest appreciation of the adversarial context in which Miranda waiver decisions are rendered. The discussion addresses the marked disparities in Miranda recall from a total recall versus component-by-component understanding of Miranda rights. It also considers more generally how crucially important Miranda misconceptions might be remedied. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Early warning system for financially distressed hospitals via data mining application.

PubMed

Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

2012-08-01

The aim of this study is to develop a Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) for hospitals by using data mining. A data mining method, Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm, was used in the study for financial profiling and developing FEWS. The study was conducted in Turkish Ministry of Health's public hospitals which were in financial distress and in need of urgent solutions for financial issues. 839 hospitals were covered and financial data of the year 2008 was obtained from Ministry of Health. As a result of the study, it was determined that 28 hospitals (3.34%) had good financial performance, and 811 hospitals (96.66%) had poor financial performance. According to FEWS, the covered hospitals were categorized into 11 different financial risk profiles, and it was found that 6 variables affected financial risk of hospitals. According to the profiles of hospitals in financial distress, one early warning signal was detected and financial road map was developed for risk mitigation.

Fuzzy logic inference-based Pavement Friction Management and real-time slippery warning systems: A proof of concept study.

PubMed

Najafi, Shahriar; Flintsch, Gerardo W; Khaleghian, Seyedmeysam

2016-05-01

Minimizing roadway crashes and fatalities is one of the primary objectives of highway engineers, and can be achieved in part through appropriate maintenance practices. Maintaining an appropriate level of friction is a crucial maintenance practice, due to the effect it has on roadway safety. This paper presents a fuzzy logic inference system that predicts the rate of vehicle crashes based on traffic level, speed limit, and surface friction. Mamdani and Sugeno fuzzy controllers were used to develop the model. The application of the proposed fuzzy control system in a real-time slippery road warning system is demonstrated as a proof of concept. The results of this study provide a decision support model for highway agencies to monitor their network's friction and make appropriate judgments to correct deficiencies based on crash risk. Furthermore, this model can be implemented in the connected vehicle environment to warn drivers of potentially slippery locations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The tsunami service bus, an integration platform for heterogeneous sensor systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haener, R.; Waechter, J.; Kriegel, U.; Fleischer, J.; Mueller, S.

2009-04-01

1. INTRODUCTION Early warning systems are long living and evolving: New sensor-systems and -types may be developed and deployed, sensors will be replaced or redeployed on other locations and the functionality of analyzing software will be improved. To ensure a continuous operability of those systems their architecture must be evolution-enabled. From a computer science point of view an evolution-enabled architecture must fulfill following criteria: • Encapsulation of and functionality on data in standardized services. Access to proprietary sensor data is only possible via these services. • Loose coupling of system constituents which easily can be achieved by implementing standardized interfaces. • Location transparency of services what means that services can be provided everywhere. • Separation of concerns that means breaking a system into distinct features which overlap in functionality as little as possible. A Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) as e. g. realized in the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the advantages of functional integration on the basis of services described below adopt these criteria best. 2. SENSOR INTEGRATION Integration of data from (distributed) data sources is just a standard task in computer science. From few well known solution patterns, taking into account performance and security requirements of early warning systems only functional integration should be considered. Precondition for this is that systems are realized compliant to SOA patterns. Functionality is realized in form of dedicated components communicating via a service infrastructure. These components provide their functionality in form of services via standardized and published interfaces which could be used to access data maintained in - and functionality provided by dedicated components. Functional integration replaces the tight coupling at data level by a dependency on loosely coupled services. If the interfaces of the service providing components remain unchanged, components can be maintained and evolved independently on each other and service functionality as a whole can be reused. In GITEWS the functional integration pattern was adopted by applying the principles of an Enterprise Service Bus (ESB) as a backbone. Four services provided by the so called Tsunami Service Bus (TSB) which are essential for early warning systems are realized compliant to services specified within the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) initiative of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). 3. ARCHITECTURE The integration platform was developed to access proprietary, heterogeneous sensor data and to provide them in a uniform manner for further use. Its core, the TSB provides both a messaging-backbone and -interfaces on the basis of a Java Messaging Service (JMS). The logical architecture of GITEWS consists of four independent layers: • A resource layer where physical or virtual sensors as well as data or model storages provide relevant measurement-, event- and analysis-data: Utilizable for the TSB are any kind of data. In addition to sensors databases, model data and processing applications are adopted. SWE specifies encoding both to access and to describe these data in a comprehensive way: 1. Sensor Model Language (SensorML): Standardized description of sensors and sensor data 2. Observations and Measurements (O&M): Model and encoding of sensor measurements • A service layer to collect and conduct data from heterogeneous and proprietary resources and provide them via standardized interfaces: The TSB enables interaction with sensors via the following services: 1. Sensor Observation Service (SOS): Standardized access to sensor data 2. Sensor Planning Service (SPS): Controlling of sensors and sensor networks 3. Sensor Alert Service (SAS): Active sending of data if defined events occur 4. Web Notification Service (WNS): Conduction of asynchronous dialogues between services • An orchestration layer where atomic services are composed and arranged to high level processes like a decision support process: One of the outstanding features of service-oriented architectures is the possibility to compose new services from existing ones, which can be done programmatically or via declaration (workflow or process design). This allows e. g. the definition of new warning processes which could be adapted easily to new requirements. • An access layer which may contain graphical user interfaces for decision support, monitoring- or visualization-systems: To for example visualize time series graphical user interfaces request sensor data simply via the SOS. 4.BENEFIT The integration platform is realized on top of well known and widely used open source software implementing industrial standards. New sensors could be added easily to the infrastructure. Client components don't need to be adjusted if new sensor-types or -individuals are added to the system, because they access the sensors via standardized services. With implementing SWE fully compatible to the OGC specification it is possible to establish the "detection" and integration of sensors via the Web. Thus realizing a system of systems that combines early warning system functionality at different levels of detail (distant early warning systems, monitoring systems and any sensor system) is feasible.

A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

PubMed

Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

2012-08-15

This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for the evaluation of alternative disaster warning systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agnew, C. E.; Anderson, R. J., Jr.; Lanen, W. N.

1977-01-01

For each of the methods identified, a theoretical basis is provided and an illustrative example is described. The example includes sufficient realism and detail to enable an analyst to conduct an evaluation of other systems. The methods discussed in the study include equal capability cost analysis, consumers' surplus, and statistical decision theory.

Arctic Insecurity: Avoiding Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-17

Geographic. 11 indigenous communities for development and environmental protection issues but the Council is specifically prohibited from dealing...nations, and involvement of indigenous communities in decision making. The stated interests are missile defense, early warning, strategic sealift...nations’ EEZs. Arctic nations will face the challenge of protecting fishing industries from outside competition, overfishing , and pollution. A

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

Treesearch

Kostas Kalabokidis; Alan Ager; Mark Finney; Nikos Athanasis; Palaiologos Palaiologou; Christos Vasilakos

2016-01-01

We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to...

On regulation.

PubMed

Stevens, Simon

2005-02-17

Control of the tariff system should be handed over to an arms-length technical agency similar to the U.S's Medicare Payments Advisory Commission, according to HSJ columnist and former prime ministerial adviser Simon Stevens. He also warns that the 'understandable decision' to slow implementation of the new system means that the elective tariff 'will be easily gamed'.

Characterization of medication advertisements in a popular US parenting magazine.

PubMed

Mongiovi, Jennifer; Cadorett, Valerie; Basch, Corey

2017-01-01

Background: Medication advertisements in magazines typically provide minimal educational benefit. This is of particular concern when targeted to caregivers responsible for making major medical decisions for their children. Methods: A cross-section of 72 issues from Parents magazine were collected and categorized by health condition and availability of the medication by prescription or over-the-counter (OTC).The type of medicine, dose, warning label, indication for child or adult, presence of a cartoon character, and the marketing theme used were documented. Chi-square analysis was used to determine significant differences in content. Results: Fewer than 30% (95% CI: 25.4%, 34.5%) of advertisements contained dosage information and approximately 50% (95% CI: 50.3%, 60.2%) contained side effect warnings. The greatest number of advertisements was for cold, cough and flu medications (14.7%; 95%CI: 11.6%, 18.6%). Conclusion: Medicine advertisements often do not include important information that could help consumers make informed decisions and avoid negative implications. Further research is needed to determine the attitudes of consumers to better understand and support consumers 'needs.

Smokers' responses toward cigarette pack warning labels in predicting quit intention, stage of change, and self-efficacy.

PubMed

Fathelrahman, Ahmed I; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Borland, Ron; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David; Zain, Zarihah

2009-03-01

This paper is concerned with the effects of cigarette pack warning labels on quitting intentions. We examined whether different responses among smokers toward cigarette pack warning labels could predict quit intentions and self-efficacy in quitting. Variables studied were "noticing warning labels during last month," "reading or looking closely at warning labels," "avoiding looking at labels during last month," "thinking about health risks of smoking because of the warning labels, "more likely to quit because of the warning labels," and "stopping from having a cigarette when about to smoke one because of the labels." A total of 2,006 adult smokers in Malaysia were surveyed in face-to-face interviews using a standardized questionnaire. Of those, 1,919 male smokers were included in the analyses. The responses "more likely to quit because of the warning labels" and "stopped from having a cigarette when about to smoke one" significantly predicted all stages of change and self-efficacy, independent of the other measures. In addition, thinking about the health risks and reading the warnings more often added extra predictive capacity but only in the early stages of contemplating change. Less intense processing of the information may be important in initiating thoughts, but cognitions about quitting and foregoing cigarettes are the key mechanisms by which warnings stimulate quitting intentions and help smokers feel capable of succeeding. Malaysian smokers appear to respond to warnings in ways comparable with those from developed countries.

Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele

2017-04-01

Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

A global flash flood forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

Design of decision support interventions for medication prescribing.

PubMed

Horsky, Jan; Phansalkar, Shobha; Desai, Amrita; Bell, Douglas; Middleton, Blackford

2013-06-01

Describe optimal design attributes of clinical decision support (CDS) interventions for medication prescribing, emphasizing perceptual, cognitive and functional characteristics that improve human-computer interaction (HCI) and patient safety. Findings from published reports on success, failures and lessons learned during implementation of CDS systems were reviewed and interpreted with regard to HCI and software usability principles. We then formulated design recommendations for CDS alerts that would reduce unnecessary workflow interruptions and allow clinicians to make informed decisions quickly, accurately and without extraneous cognitive and interactive effort. Excessive alerting that tends to distract clinicians rather than provide effective CDS can be reduced by designing only high severity alerts as interruptive dialog boxes and less severe warnings without explicit response requirement, by curating system knowledge bases to suppress warnings with low clinical utility and by integrating contextual patient data into the decision logic. Recommended design principles include parsimonious and consistent use of color and language, minimalist approach to the layout of information and controls, the use of font attributes to convey hierarchy and visual prominence of important data over supporting information, the inclusion of relevant patient data in the context of the alert and allowing clinicians to respond with one or two clicks. Although HCI and usability principles are well established and robust, CDS and EHR system interfaces rarely conform to the best known design conventions and are seldom conceived and designed well enough to be truly versatile and dependable tools. These relatively novel interventions still require careful monitoring, research and analysis of its track record to mature. Clarity and specificity of alert content and optimal perceptual and cognitive attributes, for example, are essential for providing effective decision support to clinicians. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction of structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Western Corridor Shenzhen Bay Bridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, N.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhou, X. T.; Leng, J.; Liang, Z.; Zheng, C.; Sun, X. F.

2008-03-01

Though the brief introduction of the completed structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hongkong western corridor Shenzhen bay highway bridge (SZBHMS), the self-developed system frame, hardware and software scheme of this practical research project are systematically discussed in this paper. The data acquisition and transmission hardware and the basic software based on the NI (National Instruments) Company virtual instruments technology were selected in this system, which adopted GPS time service receiver technology and so on. The objectives are to establish the structural safety monitoring and status evaluation system to monitor the structural responses and working conditions in real time and to analyze the structural working statue using information obtained from the measured data. It will be also provided the scientific decision-making bases for the bridge management and maintenance. Potential technical approaches to the structural safety warning systems, status identification and evaluation method are presented. The result indicated that the performance of the system has achieved the desired objectives, ensure the longterm high reliability, real time concurrence and advanced technology of SZBHMS. The innovate achievement which is the first time to implement in domestic, provide the reference for long-span bridge structural health and safety monitoring warning systems design.

Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan

2018-03-01

This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

First, we must understand the process of warning analysis; we must develop an -;adequate functional model. In the present research we have divided ...and changeable). (In subsequent discussions, considerable attention will be focused on these issues.) -77-7-12Z ’m,77+-U 21 WARNING ANALYSIS MODEL...have charted limitations in man’s memory, attention span, reasoning capability and other cognitive functions. These limitations considerably affect man’s

To Fear Is to Gain? The Role of Fear Recognition in Risky Decision Making in TBI Patients and Healthy Controls

PubMed Central

Visser-Keizer, Annemarie C.; Westerhof-Evers, Herma J.; Gerritsen, Marleen J. J.; van der Naalt, Joukje; Spikman, Jacoba M.

2016-01-01

Fear is an important emotional reaction that guides decision making in situations of ambiguity or uncertainty. Both recognition of facial expressions of fear and decision making ability can be impaired after traumatic brain injury (TBI), in particular when the frontal lobe is damaged. So far, it has not been investigated how recognition of fear influences risk behavior in healthy subjects and TBI patients. The ability to recognize fear is thought to be related to the ability to experience fear and to use it as a warning signal to guide decision making. We hypothesized that a better ability to recognize fear would be related to a better regulation of risk behavior, with healthy controls outperforming TBI patients. To investigate this, 59 healthy subjects and 49 TBI patients were assessed with a test for emotion recognition (Facial Expression of Emotion: Stimuli and Tests) and a gambling task (Iowa Gambling Task (IGT)). The results showed that, regardless of post traumatic amnesia duration or the presence of frontal lesions, patients were more impaired than healthy controls on both fear recognition and decision making. In both groups, a significant relationship was found between better fear recognition, the development of an advantageous strategy across the IGT and less risk behavior in the last blocks of the IGT. Educational level moderated this relationship in the final block of the IGT. This study has important clinical implications, indicating that impaired decision making and risk behavior after TBI can be preceded by deficits in the processing of fear. PMID:27870900

To Fear Is to Gain? The Role of Fear Recognition in Risky Decision Making in TBI Patients and Healthy Controls.

PubMed

Visser-Keizer, Annemarie C; Westerhof-Evers, Herma J; Gerritsen, Marleen J J; van der Naalt, Joukje; Spikman, Jacoba M

2016-01-01

Fear is an important emotional reaction that guides decision making in situations of ambiguity or uncertainty. Both recognition of facial expressions of fear and decision making ability can be impaired after traumatic brain injury (TBI), in particular when the frontal lobe is damaged. So far, it has not been investigated how recognition of fear influences risk behavior in healthy subjects and TBI patients. The ability to recognize fear is thought to be related to the ability to experience fear and to use it as a warning signal to guide decision making. We hypothesized that a better ability to recognize fear would be related to a better regulation of risk behavior, with healthy controls outperforming TBI patients. To investigate this, 59 healthy subjects and 49 TBI patients were assessed with a test for emotion recognition (Facial Expression of Emotion: Stimuli and Tests) and a gambling task (Iowa Gambling Task (IGT)). The results showed that, regardless of post traumatic amnesia duration or the presence of frontal lesions, patients were more impaired than healthy controls on both fear recognition and decision making. In both groups, a significant relationship was found between better fear recognition, the development of an advantageous strategy across the IGT and less risk behavior in the last blocks of the IGT. Educational level moderated this relationship in the final block of the IGT. This study has important clinical implications, indicating that impaired decision making and risk behavior after TBI can be preceded by deficits in the processing of fear.

Warning and prevention based on estimates with large uncertainties: the case of low-frequency and large-impact events like tsunamis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Pagnoni, Gianluca; Zaniboni, Filippo

2013-04-01

Geoscientists deal often with hazardous processes like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc., and their research is aimed not only to a better understanding of the physical processes, but also to provide assessment of the space and temporal evolution of a given individual event (i.e. to provide short-term prediction) and of the expected evolution of a group of events (i.e. to provide statistical estimates referred to a given return period, and a given geographical area). One of the main issues of any scientific method is how to cope with measurement errors, a topic which in case of forecast of ongoing or of future events translates into how to deal with forecast uncertainties. In general, the more data are available and processed to make a prediction, the more accurate the prediction is expected to be if the scientific approach is sound, and the smaller the associated uncertainties are. However, there are several important cases where assessment is to be made with insufficient data or insufficient time for processing, which leads to large uncertainties. Two examples can be given taken from tsunami science, since tsunamis are rare events that may have destructive power and very large impact. One example is the case of warning for a tsunami generated by a near-coast earthquake, which is an issue at the focus of the European funded project NearToWarn. Warning has to be launched before tsunami hits the coast, that is in a few minutes after its generation. This may imply that data collected in such a short time are not yet enough for an accurate evaluation, also because the implemented monitoring system (if any) could be inadequate (f.i. one reason of inadequacy could be that implementing a dense instrumental network could be judged too expensive for rare events) The second case is the long term prevention from tsunami strikes. Tsunami infrequency may imply that the historical record for a given piece of coast is too short to capture a statistical sufficient number of large tsunamis, which entails that tsunami hazard has to be estimated by means of speculated worst-case scenarios, and their consequences are evaluated accordingly and usually result associated with large uncertainty bands. In case of large uncertainties, the main issues for geoscientists are how to communicate the information (prediction and uncertainties) to stakeholders and citizens and how to build and implement together responsive procedures that should be adequate. Usually there is a tradeoff between the cost of the countermeasure (warning and prevention) and its efficacy (i.e. its capability of minimizing the damage). The level of the acceptable tradeoff is an issue pertaining to decision makers and to local threatened communities. This paper, that represents a contribution from the European project TRIDEC on management of emergency crises, discusses the role of geoscientists in providing predictions and the related uncertainties. It is stressed that through academic education geoscientists are formed more to better their understanding of processes and the quantification of uncertainties, but are often unprepared to communicate their results in a way appropriate for society. Filling this gap is crucial for improving the way geoscience and society handle natural hazards and devise proper defense means.

An Interoperable Architecture for Air Pollution Early Warning System Based on Sensor Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samadzadegan, F.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Saber, M.; Ghazi khanlou, H. J.

2013-09-01

Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research proposed an architecture to represent how integrate air quality sensor data stream into geospatial data infrastructure to present an interoperable air quality monitoring system for supporting disaster management systems by real time information. Developed system tested on Tehran air pollution sensors for calculating Air Quality Index (AQI) for CO pollutant and subsequently notifying registered users in emergency cases by sending warning E-mails. Air quality monitoring portal used to retrieving and visualize sensor observation through interoperable framework. This system provides capabilities to retrieve SOS observation using WPS in a cascaded service chaining pattern for monitoring trend of timely sensor observation.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Gatlin, Patrick N.

2013-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Seismic Activity: Public Alert and Warning: Legal Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zocchetti, D.

2007-12-01

As science and technology evolve in ways that increase our ability to inform the public of potentially destructive seismic activity, there are significant legal issues for consideration. Even though countries and even states within the United States have differing legal tenets that could either change or at least re-shape the outcome of specific legal questions that this session will be pondering, there are fundamental legal principals that will permeate. It is often said that the law lags behind society and in particular its technological developments. No doubt in the area of warning the public of impending destructive forces of nature or society, the law will need to do some catching up. The law is probably adequately developed for at least some preliminary discussion of the key issues. No matter the legal scheme, if there is a failure or perceived failure in the system to warn people of a pending emergencies, albeit an earthquake, tsunami, or other predictable event, those who are harmed or believe they are harmed will seek relief under the law. Every day there are situations wherein the failure to warn or to adequately warn is key, such as with faulty or defective consumer products, escaped prisoners, and police high-speed vehicle chases. With alert and warning systems for disaster, however, we have a unique set of facts. Generally, the systems and their failures occur during emergencies or at least during situations under apparently exigent circumstances when the disaster's predictability is widely recognized as less than 100 percent. The law, in particular United States tort law, has been particularly lenient when people and organizations are operating during compressed timeframes and their actions are generally considered necessary to address circumstances relative to public safety. The legal system has been forgiving when the actor that failed or appeared to fail was government. The courts have liberally applied the principal of sovereign immunity to governmental actions during emergency situations. At a minimum, the courts have shown a high degree of deference and provided immunity protection for discretionary governmental actions. For example, government organizations are often protected from legal redress for making basic policy decisions such as whether or not to implement an early warning system for emergency actions. Some national and state governments, however, have gone further to provide a legal shield of immunity through specific statutory enactments. Statutory protections generally extend to both the governmental organizations and the decision makers therein. In contrast, these protections are not always extended to third parties such as private businesses, which are often part of the chain of people and organizations that are critical for providing emergency notifications to the public. These businesses include the warning devices manufacturers, the communications systems installers, the software developers, and many other non-governmental parties essential to notifying the public. It can be argued that the legal risk in providing these private sector products or services serves to ensure their quality. But these businesses' real or perceived risk of liability could dissuade their participation in the notification system, or at least chill their innovation. Those involved in designing, developing, implementing, and operating emergency notification systems must consider how their unique situation will be impacted and potentially altered by the legal environment, or in some cases how they should affect change to that legal environment in order to have successful warning systems.

Development of an in-vehicle intersection collision countermeasure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierowicz, John A.

1997-02-01

Intersection collisions constitute approximately twenty-six percent of all accidents in the United States. Because of their complexity, and demands on the perceptual and decision making abilities of the driver, intersections present an increased risk of collisions between automobiles. This situation provides an opportunity to apply advanced sensor and processing capabilities to prevent these collisions. A program to determine the characteristics of intersection collisions and identify potential countermeasures will be described. This program, sponsored by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, utilized accident data to develop a taxonomy of intersection crashes. This taxonomy was used to develop a concept for an intersection collision avoidance countermeasure. The concept utilizes in-vehicle position, dynamic status, and millimeter wave radar system and an in-vehicle computer system to provide inputs to an intersection collision avoidance algorithm. Detection of potential violation of traffic control device, or proceeding into the intersection with inadequate gap will lead to the presentation of a warning to the driver. These warnings are presented to the driver primarily via a head-up display and haptic feedback. Roadside to vehicle communication provides information regarding phased traffic signal information. Active control of the vehicle's brake and steering systems are described. Progress in the development of the systems will be presented along with the schedule of future activities.

Anticipating Stock Market Movements with Google and Wikipedia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moat, Helen Susannah; Curme, Chester; Stanley, H. Eugene; Preis, Tobias

Many of the trading decisions that have led to financial crises are captured by vast, detailed stock market datasets. Here, we summarize two of our recent studies which investigate whether Internet usage data contain traces of attempts to gather information before such trading decisions were taken. By analyzing changes in how often Internet users searched for financially related information on Google (Preis et al., Sci Rep 3:1684, 2013) and Wikipedia (Moat et al., Sci Rep 3:1801, 2013), patterns are found that may be interpreted as "early warning signs" of stock market moves. Our results suggest that online data may allow us to gain new insight into early information gathering stages of economic decision making.

Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.

PubMed

Cook, Carly N; Inayatullah, Sohail; Burgman, Mark A; Sutherland, William J; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-09-01

Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

47 CFR 11.56 - Obligation to process CAP-formatted EAS messages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...), and Common Alerting Protocol, v. 1.2 USA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Profile Version 1...) “Common Alerting Protocol, v. 1.2 USA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Profile Version 1.0” (Oct...

47 CFR 11.56 - Obligation to process CAP-formatted EAS messages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...), and Common Alerting Protocol, v. 1.2 USA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Profile Version 1...) “Common Alerting Protocol, v. 1.2 USA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Profile Version 1.0” (Oct...

47 CFR 11.56 - Obligation to process CAP-formatted EAS messages.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...), and Common Alerting Protocol, v. 1.2 USA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Profile Version 1...) “Common Alerting Protocol, v. 1.2 USA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System Profile Version 1.0” (Oct...

Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

PubMed

Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

2002-01-01

Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

PubMed

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-10-28

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

PubMed Central

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-01-01

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels Are Not Created Equal: They Can Increase or Decrease Smokers' Quit Intentions Relative to Text-Only Warnings.

PubMed

Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Romer, Daniel; Tusler, Martin

2017-10-01

Cigarette graphic-warning labels elicit negative emotion. Research suggests negative emotion drives greater risk perceptions and quit intentions through multiple processes. The present research compares text-only warning effectiveness to that of graphic warnings eliciting more or less negative emotion. Nationally representative online panels of 736 adult smokers and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers were randomly assigned to view one of three warning types (text-only, text with low-emotion images, or text with high-emotion images) four times over 2 weeks. Participants recorded their emotional reaction to the warnings (measured as arousal), smoking risk perceptions, and quit intentions. Primary analyses used structural equation modeling. Participants in the high-emotion condition reported greater emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = 0.21; bTeen = 0.27, p's < .004); those in the low-emotion condition reported lower emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = -0.18; bTeen = -0.22, p's < .018). Stronger emotional reaction was associated with increased risk perceptions in both samples (bAdult = 0.66; bTeen = 0.85, p's < .001) and greater quit intentions among adults (bAdult = 1.00, p < .001). Compared to text-only warnings, low-emotion warnings were associated with reduced risk perceptions and quit intentions whereas high-emotion warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions. Warning labels with images that elicit more negative emotional reaction are associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions in adults and teens relative to text-only warnings. However, graphic warnings containing images which evoke little emotional reaction can backfire and reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. This research is the first to directly manipulate two emotion levels in sets of nine cigarette graphic warning images and compare them with text-only warnings. Among adult and teen smokers, high-emotion graphic warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Low-emotion graphic warnings backfired and tended to reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. Policy makers should be aware that merely placing images on cigarette packaging is insufficient to increase smokers' risk perceptions and quit intentions. Low-emotion graphic warnings will not necessarily produce desired population-level benefits relative to text-only or high-emotion warnings. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2017-06-01

Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

Impact of the graphic Canadian warning labels on adult smoking behaviour.

PubMed

Hammond, D; Fong, G T; McDonald, P W; Cameron, R; Brown, K S

2003-12-01

To assess the impact of graphic Canadian cigarette warning labels on current adult smokers. A random-digit-dial telephone survey was conducted with 616 adult smokers in south western Ontario, Canada in October/November 2001, with three month follow up. Smoking behaviour (quitting, quit attempts, and reduced smoking), intentions to quit, and salience of the warning labels. Virtually all smokers (91%) reported having read the warning labels and smokers demonstrated a thorough knowledge of their content. A strong positive relation was observed between a measure of cognitive processing-the extent to which smokers reported reading, thinking about, and discussing the new labels-and smokers' intentions to quit (odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 1.16; p < 0.001). Most important, cognitive processing predicted cessation behaviour at follow up. Smokers who had read, thought about, and discussed the new labels at baseline were more likely to have quit, made a quit attempt, or reduced their smoking three months later, after adjusting for intentions to quit and smoking status at baseline (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12; p < 0.001). Graphic cigarette warning labels serve as an effective population based smoking cessation intervention. The findings add to the growing literature on health warnings and provide strong support for the effectiveness of Canada's tobacco labelling policy.

Climatic hazards warning process in Bangladesh: Experience of, and lessons from, the 1991 April cyclone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haque, C. Emdad

1995-09-01

Science and technology cannot control entirely the causes of natural hazards. However, by using multifaceted programs to modify the physical and human use systems, the potential losses from disasters can effectively be minized. Predicting, identifying, monitoring, and forecasting extreme meteorological events are the preliminary actions towards mitigating the cyclone-loss potential of coastal inhabitants, but without the successful dissemination of forecasts and relevant information, and without appropriate responses by the potential victims, the loss potential would probably remain the same. This study examines the process through which warning of the impending disastrous cyclone of April 1991 was received by the local communities and disseminated throughout the coastal regions of Bangladesh. It is found that identification of the threatening condition due to atmospheric disturbance, monitoring of the hazard event, and dissemination of the cyclone warning were each very successful. However, due to a number of socioeconomic and cognitive factors, the reactions and responses of coastal inhabitants to the warning were in general passive, resulting in a colossal loss, both at the individual and national level. The study recommends that the hazard mitigation policies should be integrated with national economic development plans and programs. Specifically, it is suggested that, in order to attain its goals, the cyclone warning system should regard the aspects of human response to warnings as a constituent part and accommodate human dimensions in its operational design.

An Assessment of Coherence Between Early Warning and Response Systems and Serious Cross-Border Health Threats in the European Union and Turkey.

PubMed

Ekmekci, Perihan Elif

2016-12-01

Disease outbreaks have attracted the attention of the public health community to early warning and response systems (EWRS) for communicable diseases and other cross-border threats to health. The European Union (EU) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have published regulations in this area. Decision 1082/2013/EU brought a new approach the management of public health threats in EU member states. Decision 1082/2013/EU brought several innovations, which included establishing a Health Security Committee; preparedness and response planning; joint procurement of medical countermeasures; ad hoc monitoring for biological, chemical, and environmental threats; EWRS; and recognition of an emergency situation and interoperability between various sectors. Turkey, as an acceding country to the EU and a member of the WHO, has been improving its national public health system to meet EU legislations and WHO standards. This article first explains EWRS as defined in Decision 1082/2013/EU and Turkey's obligations to align its public health laws to the EU acquis. EWRS in Turkey are addressed, particularly their coherence with EU policies regarding preparedness and response, alert notification, and interoperability between health and other sectors. Finally, the challenges and limitations of the current Turkish system are discussed and further improvements are suggested. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:883-892).

Lane marking/striping to improve image processing lane departure warning systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-05-01

Vision-based Lane Departure Warning Systems (LDWS) depend on pavement marking tracking to : determine that vehicles perform unintended drifts out of the travel lanes. Thus, it is expected that : the performances of these LDWS be influenced by the vis...

"Know What to Do If You Encounter a Flash Flood": Mental Models Analysis for Improving Flash Flood Risk Communication and Public Decision Making.

PubMed

Lazrus, Heather; Morss, Rebecca E; Demuth, Julie L; Lazo, Jeffrey K; Bostrom, Ann

2016-02-01

Understanding how people view flash flood risks can help improve risk communication, ultimately improving outcomes. This article analyzes data from 26 mental models interviews about flash floods with members of the public in Boulder, Colorado, to understand their perspectives on flash flood risks and mitigation. The analysis includes a comparison between public and professional perspectives by referencing a companion mental models study of Boulder-area professionals. A mental models approach can help to diagnose what people already know about flash flood risks and responses, as well as any critical gaps in their knowledge that might be addressed through improved risk communication. A few public interviewees mentioned most of the key concepts discussed by professionals as important for flash flood warning decision making. However, most interviewees exhibited some incomplete understandings and misconceptions about aspects of flash flood development and exposure, effects, or mitigation that may lead to ineffective warning decisions when a flash flood threatens. These include important misunderstandings about the rapid evolution of flash floods, the speed of water in flash floods, the locations and times that pose the greatest flash flood risk in Boulder, the value of situational awareness and environmental cues, and the most appropriate responses when a flash flood threatens. The findings point to recommendations for ways to improve risk communication, over the long term and when an event threatens, to help people quickly recognize and understand threats, obtain needed information, and make informed decisions in complex, rapidly evolving extreme weather events such as flash floods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

2016-04-01

Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and image processing. Flood-FINDER aims to pre-empt this process and to provide preliminary analyses where no field data is available. In the early 2015, the Flood-FINDER's forecast along the Shire River has been used to guide the rapid mapping activities in Southern Malawi and Northern Mozambique. It proved efficient support providing timely information about the evolution of the flood event over an area lacking of field data. Regarding in-country capacity building, Flood-FINDER allowed UNOSAT to set up in middle 2015 a flood early warning system in Chad along the Chari River basin with the collaboration of Chadian Ministry of hydraulics and livestock. Weekly flood bulletins have been shared with local authorities and UN agencies over the entire rainy season. Finally, an experimental version of the global web alerting platform has been recently developed for supporting the El Nino flood preparedness in the Horn of Africa. Flood-FINDEŔs mission is to support decision makers throughout all the disaster management cycle with flood alerts, modelled scenarios, EO-based impact assessments and with direct support at country level to implement disaster mitigation strategies. The aim for the future is to seek funding for having the global system fully operational using CERN's supercomputing facilities and to establish new in-country projects with local authorities.

78 FR 13755 - Notice of Receipt of Petition for Decision That Nonconforming 2003 Jeep Wrangler Multi-Purpose...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-28

... System, 114 Theft Protection, 116 Motor Vehicle Brake Fluids, 118 Power-Operated Window, Partition, and...: Replacement of the instrument cluster with a U.S.-model component with inscription of the word ``brake'' on the brake failure warning light as well as reading speed in mph. Standard No. 108 Lamps, Reflective...

77 FR 67732 - Notice of Receipt of Petition for Decision That Nonconforming 2009 Porsche Cayenne S Multipurpose...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-13

... the word ``brake'' on the brake failure indicator lamp in place of the international ECE warning...: Installation of U.S.-model software to ensure that the power- operated window system meets the requirements of... Administration, DOT. ACTION: Notice of receipt of petition. SUMMARY: This document announces receipt by the...

A Little Knowledge is a Dangerous Thing...Emerging Miranda Research and Professional Roles for Psychologists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Richard

2008-01-01

In Miranda v. Arizona (1966), the 20th century's most prominent and consequential legal decision on constitutionally guaranteed rights against compelled self-incrimination, the Supreme Court of the United States mandated the delivery of specific warnings to persons facing custodial interrogation. Owing in large part to popularization of these…

77 FR 14055 - Graco Children's Products Inc., Grant of Petition for Decision of Inconsequential Noncompliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-08

... near zero. This circumstance, along with the compliant status of all other fabric and label components... 1\\1/4\\ inches. The area of the Label is insignificant with respect to the over two yards of fabric... system. Moreover, all other fabric, including other warning labels for the MyRide child restraint system...

The Use of Rainfall Forecasts as a Decision Guide for Small-Scale Farming in Limpopo Province, South Africa

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moeletsi, M. E.; Mellaart, E. A. R.; Mpandeli, N. S.; Hamandawana, H.

2013-01-01

Purpose: New innovative ways of communicating agrometeorological information are needed to help farmers, especially subsistence/small-scale farmers, to cope with the high climate variability experienced in most parts of southern Africa. Design/methodology/approach: The article introduces an early warning system for farmers. It utilizes short…

Methylmercury Poisoning—An Assessment of the Sportfish Hazard in California

PubMed Central

Dales, Loring; Kahn, Ephraim; Wei, Eddie

1971-01-01

A quantitative assessment of the methylmercury risk in California entails measurement of the contamination distribution, the probability of methylmercury intake and knowledge of the toxicological properties of methylmercury. This article reviews the scientific basis for the California State Task Force's decision to warn the public against excessive consumption of sport fish contaminated by methylmercury. PMID:5544687

The Road Less Traveled: Changing Schools from the Inside Out

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodwin, Bryan

2015-01-01

Roughly 30 years ago, American educators stood at a crossroads, with a decision to make about the future of education. With their ears ringing of warnings that they were facing a "rising tide of mediocrity" and recognizing unacceptable gaps in achievement between disadvantaged students and others, educators set off down a path of reform…

78 FR 22944 - Notice of Receipt of Petition for Decision That Nonconforming 1991 Volkswagen Transporter Multi...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-17

..., installation of a seat belt warning lamp, and recalibration of the speedometer/odometer to show speed in miles... Theft Protection and Rollaway Prevention: installation of a U.S.-model micro switch in the steering lock...: installation of an information placard containing manufacturer specifications for seating capacity and loading...

From a physical approach to earthquake prediction, towards long and short term warnings ahead of large earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stefansson, R.; Bonafede, M.

2012-04-01

For 20 years the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was a test site for multinational earthquake prediction research, partly bridging the gap between laboratory tests samples, and the huge transform zones of the Earth. The approach was to explore the physics of processes leading up to large earthquakes. The book Advances in Earthquake Prediction, Research and Risk Mitigation, by R. Stefansson (2011), published by Springer/PRAXIS, and an article in the August issue of the BSSA by Stefansson, M. Bonafede and G. Gudmundsson (2011) contain a good overview of the findings, and more references, as well as examples of partially successful long and short term warnings based on such an approach. Significant findings are: Earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago left scars in the crust, expressed in volumes of heterogeneity that demonstrate the size of their faults. Rheology and stress heterogeneity within these volumes are significantly variable in time and space. Crustal processes in and near such faults may be observed by microearthquake information decades before the sudden onset of a new large earthquake. High pressure fluids of mantle origin may in response to strain, especially near plate boundaries, migrate upward into the brittle/elastic crust to play a significant role in modifying crustal conditions on a long and short term. Preparatory processes of various earthquakes can not be expected to be the same. We learn about an impending earthquake by observing long term preparatory processes at the fault, finding a constitutive relationship that governs the processes, and then extrapolating that relationship into near space and future. This is a deterministic approach in earthquake prediction research. Such extrapolations contain many uncertainties. However the long time pattern of observations of the pre-earthquake fault process will help us to put probability constraints on our extrapolations and our warnings. The approach described is different from the usual approach of statistics of universal precursors or stress level. The approach is more related to failure physics, by studying the ongoing failure. But it requires watching and relevant modeling for years, even decades. Useful information on fault process and warnings can be issued along the way, starting when we discover a fault showing signs of preparatory processes, up to the time of the earthquake. Such information and warnings could be issued by government agencies in cooperation with scientists to the local Civil Protection committee closest to the fault with information about how to prepare, including directives about enhanced watching. For such a warning service we need a continuously operating geo-watching system, applying modern computing technology to the multidisciplinary data, and a rule based schedule to prepare adequate warnings.

Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: ``I Told You So'' Is Not Enough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groat, Charles

2005-09-01

There has not been a major natural-hazard related disaster in modern times that wasn't preceded by warnings from scientists about the potential consequences of the intersection of populations, infrastructure, and extreme natural events. We have taken our understanding of the frequency of these events and the processes associated with them to the table as earthquake-prone cities have contemplated zoning regulations and building standards, floodplain communities and government agencies have sought to improve flood insurance programs, and settlement has moved into wildland fire danger zones. We have celebrated when we were heeded, but more often we have been frustrated when the impacts of a natural hazard were as we predicted and the opportunity for scientific understanding to have reduced consequences of the event was missed by decision-makers.

A fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system for spacecraft integrated vehicle health management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, G. Gordon

1995-01-01

Due to the complexity of future space missions and the large amount of data involved, greater autonomy in data processing is demanded for mission operations, training, and vehicle health management. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system to perform data reduction, data analysis, and fault diagnosis for spacecraft vehicle health management applications. The diagnostic system contains a data filter and an inference engine. The data filter is designed to intelligently select only the necessary data for analysis, while the inference engine is designed for failure detection, warning, and decision on corrective actions using fuzzy logic synthesis. Due to its adaptive nature and on-line learning ability, the diagnostic system is capable of dealing with environmental noise, uncertainties, conflict information, and sensor faults.

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

2011-01-01

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

2018-01-01

Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

Gender differences in teacher-student interactions in science classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M. Gail; Wheatley, Jack

1990-12-01

Thirty physical science and 30 chemistry classes, which contained a total of 1332 students, were observed using the Brophy-Good Teacher-Child Dyadic Interaction System. Classroom interactions were examined for gender differences that may contribute to the underrepresentation of women in physics and engineering courses and subsequent careers. The Brophy-Good coding process allows for examination of patterns of interactions for individuals and groups of pupils. An analysis of variance of the data yielded a significant main effect for teacher praise, call outs, procedural questions, and behavioral warnings based on the sex of the student and a significant teacher-sex main effect for direct questions. Significant two-way interactions were found for the behavioral warning variable for teacher sex and subject by student sex. Female teachers warned male students significantly more than female students. Male teachers warned both genders with similar frequency. Male students also received significantly more behavioral warnings in physical science classes than female students. In chemistry classes, both male and female students received approximately the same number of behavioral warnings.

A Pilot Tsunami Inundation Forecast System for Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Stewart C. R.; Greenslade, Diana J. M.

2016-12-01

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) provides a tsunami warning service for Australia. Warnings are currently issued according to a technique that does not include explicit modelling at the coastline, including any potential coastal inundation. This paper investigates the feasibility of developing and implementing tsunami inundation modelling as part of the JATWC warning system. An inundation model was developed for a site in Southeast Australia, on the basis of the availability of bathymetric and topographic data and observations of past tsunamis. The model was forced using data from T2, the operational deep-water tsunami scenario database currently used for generating warnings. The model was evaluated not only for its accuracy but also for its computational speed, particularly with respect to operational applications. Limitations of the proposed forecast processes in the Australian context and areas requiring future improvement are discussed.

Sensor data monitoring and decision level fusion scheme for early fire detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizogiannis, Constantinos; Thanos, Konstantinos Georgios; Astyakopoulos, Alkiviadis; Kyriazanos, Dimitris M.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2017-05-01

The aim of this paper is to present the sensor monitoring and decision level fusion scheme for early fire detection which has been developed in the context of the AF3 Advanced Forest Fire Fighting European FP7 research project, adopted specifically in the OCULUS-Fire control and command system and tested during a firefighting field test in Greece with prescribed real fire, generating early-warning detection alerts and notifications. For this purpose and in order to improve the reliability of the fire detection system, a two-level fusion scheme is developed exploiting a variety of observation solutions from air e.g. UAV infrared cameras, ground e.g. meteorological and atmospheric sensors and ancillary sources e.g. public information channels, citizens smartphone applications and social media. In the first level, a change point detection technique is applied to detect changes in the mean value of each measured parameter by the ground sensors such as temperature, humidity and CO2 and then the Rate-of-Rise of each changed parameter is calculated. In the second level the fire event Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) function is determined for each ground sensor using Fuzzy-logic theory and then the corresponding mass values are combined in a decision level fusion process using Evidential Reasoning theory to estimate the final fire event probability.

The Value of Information from a GRACE-Enhanced Drought Severity Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Y.; Bernknopf, R.; Macauley, M.; Brookshire, D.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Rodell, M.

2013-12-01

Water storage anomalies derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Data Assimilation System (GRACE-DAS) have been used to enhance the information contained in drought indicators. The potential value of this information is to inform local and regional decisions to improve economic welfare in the face of drought. Based on a characterization of current drought evaluations, a modeling framework has been structured to analyze the contributed value of the Earth observations in the assessment of the onset and duration of droughts and their regional impacts. The analysis focuses on (1) characterizing how GRACE-DAS provides Earth observation information for a drought warning, (2) assessing how a GRACE-DAS-enhanced U.S. Drought Monitor would improve economic outcomes in a region, and (3) applying this enhancement process in a decision framework to illustrate the potential role of GRACE data products in a recent drought and response scenario for a value-of-information (VOI) analysis. The VOI analysis quantifies the relative contribution of enhanced understanding and communication of the societal benefits associated with GRACE Earth observation science. Our emphasis is to illustrate the role of an enhanced National Integrated Drought Information System outlook on three key societal outcomes: effects on particular economic sectors, changes in land management decisions, and reductions in damages to ecosystem services.

Environment Agency England flood warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

2015-04-01

Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.

1994-01-01

Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

Signal evaluation environment: a new method for the design of peripheral in-vehicle warning signals.

PubMed

Werneke, Julia; Vollrath, Mark

2011-06-01

An evaluation method called the Signal Evaluation Environment (SEE) was developed for use in the early stages of the design process of peripheral warning signals while driving. Accident analyses have shown that with complex driving situations such as intersections, the visual scan strategies of the driver contribute to overlooking other road users who have the right of way. Salient peripheral warning signals could disrupt these strategies and direct drivers' attention towards these road users. To select effective warning signals, the SEE was developed as a laboratory task requiring visual-cognitive processes similar to those used at intersections. For validation of the SEE, four experiments were conducted using different stimulus characteristics (size, colour contrast, shape, flashing) that influence peripheral vision. The results confirm that the SEE is able to differentiate between the selected stimulus characteristics. The SEE is a useful initial tool for designing peripheral signals, allowing quick and efficient preselection of beneficial signals.

Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

PubMed

Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

2014-11-01

To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Bringing a Butter Knife to a Gun Fight"? Salience, Disclosure, and FDA's Differing Approaches to the Tobacco Use and Obesity Epidemics.

PubMed

Weimholt, Josef

2015-01-01

One might expect--given the vastly different look, feel, and function of the ubiquitous (and innocuous) Nutrition Facts panel and the "inflammatory" graphic warning labels for cigarettes--that the statutes establishing such disclosure requirements would exhibit similar disparities. In fact, the relevant provisions of the Nutrition Labeling and Education Act of 1990 and the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009 are. quite analogous. Like other mandated disclosures, the nutrition label and the cigarette. graphic warnings seek to simultaneously inform and influence consumer decisions. Both statutes grant FDA considerable discretion in.the implementation of the labeling requirements, generally allowing the agency to alter the format and content of the labels as necessary to promote the statutory goals. Thus, the differences in the nutrition and cigarette warning labels are not the product of the statutory schemes alone; rather, they reflect important differences in FDA's interpretation and prioritization of the dual regulatory goals, and in the agency's implicit or explicit assumptions about human behavior.

Context-Aware Intelligent Assistant Approach to Improving Pilot's Situational Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.

2004-01-01

Faulty decision making due to inaccurate or incomplete awareness of the situation tends to be the prevailing cause of fatal general aviation accidents. Of these accidents, loss of weather situational awareness accounts for the largest number of fatalities. We describe a method for improving weather situational awareness through the support of a contextaware,domain and task knowledgeable, personalized and adaptive assistant. The assistant automatically monitors weather reports for the pilot's route of flight and warns her of detected anomalies. When and how warnings are issued is determined by phase of flight, the pilot s definition of acceptable weather conditions, and the pilot's preferences for automatic notification. In addition to automatic warnings, the pilot is able to verbally query for weather and airport information. By noting the requests she makes during the approach phase of flight, our system learns to provide the information without explicit requests on subsequent flights with similar conditions. We show that our weather assistant decreases the effort required to maintain situational awareness by more than 5.5 times when compared to the conventional method of in-flight weather briefings.

Distraction or cognitive overload? Using modulations of the autonomic nervous system to discriminate the possible negative effects of advanced assistance system.

PubMed

Ruscio, D; Bos, A J; Ciceri, M R

2017-06-01

The interaction with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems has several positive implications for road safety, but also some potential downsides such as mental workload and automation complacency. Malleable attentional resources allocation theory describes two possible processes that can generate workload in interaction with advanced assisting devices. The purpose of the present study is to determine if specific analysis of the different modalities of autonomic control of nervous system can be used to discriminate different potential workload processes generated during assisted-driving tasks and automation complacency situations. Thirty-five drivers were tested in a virtual scenario while using head-up advanced warning assistance system. Repeated MANOVA were used to examine changes in autonomic activity across a combination of different user interactions generated by the advanced assistance system: (1) expected take-over request without anticipatory warning; (2) expected take-over request with two-second anticipatory warning; (3) unexpected take-over request with misleading warning; (4) unexpected take-over request without warning. Results shows that analysis of autonomic modulations can discriminate two different resources allocation processes, related to different behavioral performances. The user's interaction that required divided attention under expected situations produced performance enhancement and reciprocally-coupled parasympathetic inhibition with sympathetic activity. At the same time, supervising interactions that generated automation complacency were described specifically by uncoupled sympathetic activation. Safety implications for automated assistance systems developments are considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a catastrophe risk model, is required to explore the casualty implications of different possible hazard scenarios, to assess the proportion of an evacuated population who would owe their lives to an evacuation, and to estimate the economic loss associated with an unnecessary evacuation. This paper will review the developing methodology for applying catastrophe risk modelling to support public policy in evacuation decision-making, and provide illustrations from across the range of natural hazards. Evacuation during volcanic crises is a prime example, recognizing the improving forecasting skill of volcanologists, now able to account probabilistically for precursory seismological, geodetic, and geochemical monitoring data. This methodology will be shown to help civic authorities make sounder risk-informed decisions on the timing and population segmentation of evacuation from both volcanoes and calderas, such as Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, which are in densely populated urban regions.

Graphic gambling warnings: how they affect emotions, cognitive responses and attitude change.

PubMed

Muñoz, Yaromir; Chebat, Jean-Charles; Borges, Adilson

2013-09-01

The present study focuses on the effects of graphic warnings related to excessive gambling. It is based upon a theoretical model derived from both the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). We focus on video lottery terminal (VLT), one of the most hazardous format in the gaming industry. Our cohort consisted of 103 actual gamblers who reported previous gambling activity on VLT's on a regular basis. We assess the effectiveness of graphic warnings vs. text-only warnings and the effectiveness of two major arguments (i.e., family vs. financial disruption). A 2 × 2 factorial design was used to test the direct and combined effects of two variables (i.e., warning content and presence vs. absence of a graphic). It was found that the presence of a graphic enhances both cognitive appraisal and fear, and has positive effects on the Depth of Information Processing. In addition, graphic content combined with family disruptions is more effective for changing attitudes and complying with the warning than other combinations of the manipulated variables. It is proposed that ELM and PMT complement each other to explain the effects of warnings. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Rejecting a bad option feels like choosing a good one.

PubMed

Perfecto, Hannah; Galak, Jeff; Simmons, Joseph P; Nelson, Leif D

2017-11-01

Across 4,151 participants, the authors demonstrate a novel framing effect, attribute matching, whereby matching a salient attribute of a decision frame with that of a decision's options facilitates decision-making. This attribute matching is shown to increase decision confidence and, ultimately, consensus estimates by increasing feelings of metacognitive ease. In Study 1, participants choosing the more attractive of two faces or rejecting the less attractive face reported greater confidence in and perceived consensus around their decision. Using positive and negative words, Study 2 showed that the attribute's extremity moderates the size of the effect. Study 3 found decision ease mediates these changes in confidence and consensus estimates. Consistent with a misattribution account, when participants were warned about this external source of ease in Study 4, the effect disappeared. Study 5 extended attribute matching beyond valence to objective judgments. The authors conclude by discussing related psychological constructs as well as downstream consequences. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

It's so hard to be fair.

PubMed

Brockner, Joel

2006-03-01

When employees believe they are being treated fairly-when they feel heard, when they understand how and why important decisions are made, and when they believe they are respected-their companies will benefit. Research shows that practicing process fairness reduces legal costs from wrongful-termination suits, lowers employee turnover, helps generate support for new strategic initiatives, and fosters a culture that promotes innovation. What's more, it costs little financially to implement Yet few companies practice it consistently. Joel Brockner examines this paradox, exploring psychological and other reasons that cause managers to resist embracing process fairness. The fact that it's relatively inexpensive to implement, for instance, may be why some numbers-oriented executives undervalue it. Many managers believe that they practice process fairness, but 360-degree feedback tells another story. Some corporate policies actually undermine it--such as when the legal department won't let managers fully explain decisions for fear that disclosure could expose the firm to lawsuits. And, frequently, managers simply follow the all-too-human tendency to avoid uncomfortable situations. But the good news is that organizations can take concrete steps to promote greater process fairness. Many studies have shown that training programs make a big difference, and the author describes the most effective format. In addition, warning your managers that they may experience negative emotions when practicing fair process will help prepare them to cope with those feelings. Finally, role modeling fair process on the executive level will help spread the practice throughout the organization. The fact is, process fairness is the responsibility of all executives, at all levels and in all functions; it cannot be delegated to HR. The sooner managers realize that and work to make it a company norm, the better off the organization will be.

Using HPC within an operational forecasting configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagers, H. R. A.; Genseberger, M.; van den Broek, M. A. F. H.

2012-04-01

Various natural disasters are caused by high-intensity events, for example: extreme rainfall can in a short time cause major damage in river catchments, storms can cause havoc in coastal areas. To assist emergency response teams in operational decisions, it's important to have reliable information and predictions as soon as possible. This starts before the event by providing early warnings about imminent risks and estimated probabilities of possible scenarios. In the context of various applications worldwide, Deltares has developed an open and highly configurable forecasting and early warning system: Delft-FEWS. Finding the right balance between simulation time (and hence prediction lead time) and simulation accuracy and detail is challenging. Model resolution may be crucial to capture certain critical physical processes. Uncertainty in forcing conditions may require running large ensembles of models; data assimilation techniques may require additional ensembles and repeated simulations. The computational demand is steadily increasing and data streams become bigger. Using HPC resources is a logical step; in different settings Delft-FEWS has been configured to take advantage of distributed computational resources available to improve and accelerate the forecasting process (e.g. Montanari et al, 2006). We will illustrate the system by means of a couple of practical applications including the real-time dynamic forecasting of wind driven waves, flow of water, and wave overtopping at dikes of Lake IJssel and neighboring lakes in the center of The Netherlands. Montanari et al., 2006. Development of an ensemble flood forecasting system for the Po river basin, First MAP D-PHASE Scientific Meeting, 6-8 November 2006, Vienna, Austria.

Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

2017-12-01

After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

When health policy and empirical evidence collide: the case of cigarette package warning labels and economic consumer surplus.

PubMed

Song, Anna V; Brown, Paul; Glantz, Stanton A

2014-02-01

In its graphic warning label regulations on cigarette packages, the Food and Drug Administration severely discounts the benefits of reduced smoking because of the lost "pleasure" smokers experience when they stop smoking; this is quantified as lost "consumer surplus." Consumer surplus is grounded in rational choice theory. However, empirical evidence from psychological cognitive science and behavioral economics demonstrates that the assumptions of rational choice are inconsistent with complex multidimensional decisions, particularly smoking. Rational choice does not account for the roles of emotions, misperceptions, optimistic bias, regret, and cognitive inefficiency that are germane to smoking, particularly because most smokers begin smoking in their youth. Continued application of a consumer surplus discount will undermine sensible policies to reduce tobacco use and other policies to promote public health.

Contribution of Near Real Time MODIS-Based Forest Disturbance Detection Products to a National Forest Threat Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

2011-01-01

U.S. forests occupy approx. 751 million acres (approx. 1/3 of total land). These forests are exposed to multiple biotic and abiotic threats that collectively damage extensive acreages each year. Hazardous forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest monitoring products are needed to aid forest management and decision making by the US Forest Service and its state and private partners. Daily MODIS data products provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis. In response, we began work in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat early warning system (EWS)

75 FR 18952 - Graco Children's Products Inc., Receipt of Petition for Decision of Inconsequential Noncompliance

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-13

... other fabric, including other warning labels for the MyRide seat, are flame resistant. The small size of... of all other fabric and label components of the MyRide seat, render the Label's noncompliance... yards of fabric that is used to make the pad and the ``soft goods'' for the MyRide seat. Proportionally...

Early Warning Signs: Identifying Opportunities to Disrupt Racial Inequities in School Discipline through Data-Based Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blake, Jamilia J.; Gregory, Anne; James, Marlon; Hasan, Gwen Webb

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate how school psychologists can proactively address disparities in school suspension through the examination of office discipline referrals (ODR). Results of two studies examining high school ODRs suggest that there is value in school psychologists disaggregating and analyzing ODRs at the school level and…

The impact of Wyeth v. Levine on FDA regulation of prescription drugs.

PubMed

Ausness, Richard C

2010-01-01

In Wyeth v. Levine, decided in March, 2009, the United States Supreme Court concluded that the plaintiff's failure to warn claim against the makers of the drug Phenergan was not impliedly preempted by the Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act. In doing so, the Court rejected the argument of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) that tort claims of this nature stand as an obstacle to federal regulatory objectives. This Article evaluates the Court's opinion in Wyeth and examines that decision's impact on subsequent litigation in the area of prescription drug labeling. The Article first discusses the preemption doctrine and its application to state law tort claims against product manufacturers. It then reviews the history of implied preemption of tort claims against manufacturers of FDA-approved prescription drugs prior to Wyeth and then discusses the Wyeth decisions in the Vermont Supreme Court and the United States Supreme Court. Finally, the Article evaluates some of the prescription drug preemption cases that have been decided in the lower federal courts since Wyeth and suggests that these courts are now reluctant to preempt failure to warn claims unless a manufacturer affirmatively seeks permission from FDA to change a drug's labeling.

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

Review of FEWS NET Biophysical Monitoring Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, K. W.; Brown, Molly E.; Verdin, J.; Underwood, L. W.

2009-01-01

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users: it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and; subsequently, beneficial FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world, enabling a robust set of professional perspectives to be gathered and analyzed rapidly. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard: that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand, and that rainfall and vegetation products were valued as data that provide actionable food security information.

Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

2013-01-01

Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

The Warning Signs of Learning Disabilities. ERIC Digest #E603.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergert, Susan

This brief paper summarizes warning signs of learning disabilities in preschool children, elementary school children, and secondary school children. It notes that learning disabilities are presumed to arise from dysfunctions in the brain resulting in significant difficulties in perceiving information, processing and/or remembering information,…

Early warning indicators for process failure due to organic overloading by rapeseed oil in one-stage continuously stirred tank reactor, sewage sludge and waste digesters.

PubMed

Kleyböcker, A; Liebrich, M; Verstraete, W; Kraume, M; Würdemann, H

2012-11-01

Early warning indicators for process failures were investigated to develop a reliable method to increase the production efficiency of biogas plants. Organic overloads by the excessive addition of rapeseed oil were used to provoke the decrease in the gas production rate. Besides typical monitoring parameters, as pH, methane and hydrogen contents, biogas production rate and concentrations of fatty acids; carbon dioxide content, concentrations of calcium and phosphate were monitored. The concentration ratio of volatile fatty acids to calcium acted as an early warning indicator (EWI-VFA/Ca). The EWI-VFA/Ca always clearly and reliably indicated a process imbalance by exhibiting a 2- to 3-fold increase 3-7days before the process failure occurred. At this time, it was still possible to take countermeasures successfully. Furthermore, increases in phosphate concentration and in the concentration ratio of phosphate to calcium also indicated a process failure, in some cases, even earlier than the EWI-VFA/Ca. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

2017-04-01

Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory reached 156, 64, and 37, respectively. In 2016, only three landslides were recorded even though the city experienced a couple of heavy rainfall events during the rainy season. The system performance test results show good agreement with the observation results for the past rainfall events. It seems that the system can also provide with reliable warning information for the future rainfall events.

Longitudinal driver model and collision warning and avoidance algorithms based on human driving databases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kangwon

Intelligent vehicle systems, such as Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) or Collision Warning/Collision Avoidance (CW/CA), are currently under development, and several companies have already offered ACC on selected models. Control or decision-making algorithms of these systems are commonly evaluated under extensive computer simulations and well-defined scenarios on test tracks. However, they have rarely been validated with large quantities of naturalistic human driving data. This dissertation utilized two University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute databases (Intelligent Cruise Control Field Operational Test and System for Assessment of Vehicle Motion Environment) in the development and evaluation of longitudinal driver models and CW/CA algorithms. First, to examine how drivers normally follow other vehicles, the vehicle motion data from the databases were processed using a Kalman smoother. The processed data was then used to fit and evaluate existing longitudinal driver models (e.g., the linear follow-the-leader model, the Newell's special model, the nonlinear follow-the-leader model, the linear optimal control model, the Gipps model and the optimal velocity model). A modified version of the Gipps model was proposed and found to be accurate in both microscopic (vehicle) and macroscopic (traffic) senses. Second, to examine emergency braking behavior and to evaluate CW/CA algorithms, the concepts of signal detection theory and a performance index suitable for unbalanced situations (few threatening data points vs. many safe data points) are introduced. Selected existing CW/CA algorithms were found to have a performance index (geometric mean of true-positive rate and precision) not exceeding 20%. To optimize the parameters of the CW/CA algorithms, a new numerical optimization scheme was developed to replace the original data points with their representative statistics. A new CW/CA algorithm was proposed, which was found to score higher than 55% in the performance index. This dissertation provides a model of how drivers follow lead-vehicles that is much more accurate than other models in the literature. Furthermore, the data-based approach was used to confirm that a CW/CA algorithm utilizing lead-vehicle braking was substantially more effective than existing algorithms, leading to collision warning systems that are much more likely to contribute to driver safety.

An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.

2009-12-01

For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become available. The results are also promising in terms of accuracy since epicenter coordinates, depth and magnitude estimates were sufficiently accurate from the very beginning, and usually do not differ substantially from the final solutions. In summary, automatic seismic event processing has shown to work well as a first step for starting a Tsunami Warning process. However, for the secured assessment of the tsunami potential of a given event, 24/7-manned regional TWCs are mandatory for reliable manual verification of the automatic seismic results. At this time, GFZ itself provides manual verification only when staff is available, not on a 24/7 basis, while the actual national tsunami warning centers have all a reliable 24/7 service.

Open Source Seismic Software in NOAA's Next Generation Tsunami Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.

2014-12-01

The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.

Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

2017-08-01

China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

Development of wireless brain computer interface with embedded multitask scheduling and its application on real-time driver's drowsiness detection and warning.

PubMed

Lin, Chin-Teng; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Huang, Teng-Yi; Chiu, Tien-Ting; Ko, Li-Wei; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Hsieh, Hung-Yi; Hsu, Shang-Hwa; Duann, Jeng-Ren

2008-05-01

Biomedical signal monitoring systems have been rapidly advanced with electronic and information technologies in recent years. However, most of the existing physiological signal monitoring systems can only record the signals without the capability of automatic analysis. In this paper, we proposed a novel brain-computer interface (BCI) system that can acquire and analyze electroencephalogram (EEG) signals in real-time to monitor human physiological as well as cognitive states, and, in turn, provide warning signals to the users when needed. The BCI system consists of a four-channel biosignal acquisition/amplification module, a wireless transmission module, a dual-core signal processing unit, and a host system for display and storage. The embedded dual-core processing system with multitask scheduling capability was proposed to acquire and process the input EEG signals in real time. In addition, the wireless transmission module, which eliminates the inconvenience of wiring, can be switched between radio frequency (RF) and Bluetooth according to the transmission distance. Finally, the real-time EEG-based drowsiness monitoring and warning algorithms were implemented and integrated into the system to close the loop of the BCI system. The practical online testing demonstrates the feasibility of using the proposed system with the ability of real-time processing, automatic analysis, and online warning feedback in real-world operation and living environments.

Preface [to special section on recent Loch Vale Watershed research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Williams, Mark W.

2000-01-01

Catchment-scale intensive and extensive research conducted over the last decade shows that our understanding of the biogeochemical and hydrologic processes in subalpine and alpine basins is not yet sufficiently mature to model and predict how biogeochemical transformations and surface water quality will change in response to climatic or human-driven changes in energy, water, and chemicals. A better understanding of these processes is needed for input to decision-making regulatory agencies and federal land managers. In recognition of this problem the National Research Council [1998] has identified as a critical research need an improved understanding of how global change will affect biogeochemical interactions with the hydrologic cycle and biogeochemical controls over the transport of water, nutrients, and materials from land to freshwater ecosystems. Improved knowledge of alpine and subalpine ecosystems is particularly important since high-elevation catchments are very sensitive to small changes in the flux of energy, chemicals, and water. Furthermore, alpine ecosystems may act as early warning indicators for ecosystem changes at lower elevations.

Obesity prevention at the point of purchase.

PubMed

Cohen, D A; Lesser, L I

2016-05-01

The point of purchase is when people may make poor and impulsive decisions about what and how much to buy and consume. Because point of purchase strategies frequently work through non-cognitive processes, people are often unable to recognize and resist them. Because people lack insight into how marketing practices interfere with their ability to routinely eat healthy, balanced diets, public health entities should protect consumers from potentially harmful point of purchase strategies. We describe four point of purchase policy options including standardized portion sizes; standards for meals that are sold as a bundle, e.g. 'combo meals'; placement and marketing restrictions on highly processed low-nutrient foods; and explicit warning labels. Adoption of such policies could contribute significantly to the prevention of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases. We also discuss how the policies could be implemented, along with who might favour or oppose them. Many of the policies can be implemented locally, while preserving consumer choice. © 2016 World Obesity.

'IF You Drink Alcohol, THEN You Will Get Cancer': Investigating How Reasoning Accuracy Is Affected by Pictorially Presented Graphic Alcohol Warnings.

PubMed

Zahra, Daniel; Monk, Rebecca L; Corder, Emma

2015-09-01

To investigate the cognitive processing of emotive pictorial warnings intended to curb alcohol misuse, using novel methodologies adapted from the reasoning literature to assess whether emotive pictorial warnings alter reasoning. In Study 1, individuals completed a version of the Wason selection task-evaluating warnings in which content type (Alcohol and Non-Alcohol) and emotional valence (Positive and Negative) were manipulated through imagery. In Study 2, people evaluated the certainty of outcomes described by alcohol-related and non-alcohol-related warnings in the form of If-Then statements. Study 1 found that in alcohol-related warnings, there was no difference in reasoning accuracy between positive and negative content. However, fewer correct responses followed exposure to negative general-health messages. Study 2 suggested that when a warning involves the potential consequences of drinking alcohol, accuracy is improved when the content is negative. However, when considering the consequences of abstinence, accuracy was greatest when the content was positive. This was supported by an inference by content interaction. In conclusion, negative imagery should be used with caution in health warnings, and goals carefully considered. In some cases imagery of negative outcomes may improve reasoning, however, its use in alcohol-related messages does not appear to be consistently beneficial. © The Author 2015. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

ForWarn: A Cross-Cutting Forest Resource Management and Decision Support System Providing the Capacity to Identify and Track Forest Disturbances Nationally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Norman, S.; Christie, W.; Hoffman, F. M.

2012-12-01

The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. It has operated as a prototype since January 2010 and has provided useful information about the location and extent of disturbances detected during the 2011 growing season, including tornadoes, wildfires, and extreme drought. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in March 2012, initiated by a joint NASA and USDA press release. The ForWarn home page has had 2,632 unique visitors since rollout in March 2012, with 39% returning visits. ForWarn was used to map tornado scars from the historic April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak, and detected timber damage within more than a dozen tornado tracks across northern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. ForWarn is the result of an ongoing, substantive cooperation among four different government agencies: USDA, NASA, USGS, and DOE. Disturbance maps are available on the web through the ForWarn Change Assessment Viewer at http://forwarn.forestthreats.org/fcav. No user id or password is required, and there is no cost. The Assessment Viewer operates within any popular web browser using nearly any type of computer. It lets users pan, zoom, and scroll around within ForWarn maps, and also contains an up-to-date library of co-registered, near real-time ancillary maps from diverse sources that allows users to assess the nature of particular forest disturbances and ascribe their most-likely causes. Users can check the current week's U.S. Drought Monitor, USGS VegDRI maps, FHM Historical Aerial Disturbance Surveys, MODIS Cumulative Current Year Fire Detections, and many others. A "Share this map" feature lets users save the current map view and extent into a web URL, so that users can easily share what they are looking at inside the Assessment Viewer with others via an email, a document, or a web page. The ForWarn Rapid National Assessment Team examined more than 60 ForWarn forest disturbance events in 2011-2012, and issued over 30 alerts. We hope to automate forest disturbance alerts and supply them through various subscription services. Forest owners and managers would only be alerted to disturbances occurring near their own forest resources.

Flooding During Drought: Learning from Stakeholder Engagement & Partner Coordination in the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, A. M.

2017-12-01

After more than 5 years of drought, extreme precipitation brought drought relief in California and Nevada and presents an opportunity to reflect upon lessons learned while planning for the future. NOAA's National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) in June 2017 convened a regional coordination workshop to provide a forum to discuss and build upon past drought efforts in the region and increase coordination, collaboration and information sharing across the region as a whole. Participants included federal, tribal, state, academic, and local partners who provided a post-mortem on the recent drought and impacts as well as recent innovations in drought monitoring, forecasts, and decision support tools in response to the historic drought. This presentation will highlight lessons learned from stakeholder outreach and engagement around flooding during drought, and pathways for moving forward coordination and collaboration in the region. Additional focus will be on the potential opportunities from examining California decision making calendars from this drought. Identified gaps and challenges will also be shared, such as the need to connect observations with social impacts, capacity building around available tools and resources, and future drought monitoring needs. Drought will continue to impact California and Nevada, and the CA-NV DEWS works to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.

Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

2017-04-01

During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena addressed and variables to be considered for correlations. The characteristics of LEWSs at local scale are strongly affected by numerous constraints and factors, from time to time different, related to the characteristics of the problem they address. Monitoring measures, variables and correlation laws considered for the design and employment of local LEWSs, strongly depends on the type of landslide to be addressed. On the other hand, territorial LEWSs mainly deals with rainfall-induced landslides characterized by fast slope movement. These systems have become a risk management approach, employed worldwide over areas of relevant extension. Before 2005 only few experiences of LEWSs at a regional scale were carried out, such as in: Hong Kong, China; Zhejiang Province, China; San Francisco Bay, California, USA; Appalachians, USA; Oregon, USA; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Since the beginning of the XXI century, increased knowledge on rainfall-landslide correlations and upgraded technologies in weather forecast have promoted the development and improvement of territorial LEWSs around the world.

The influence of threatening visual warnings on tobacco packaging: Measuring the impact of threat level, image size, and type of pack through psychophysiological and self-report methods

PubMed Central

Droulers, Olivier; Lacoste-Badie, Sophie; Lajante, Mathieu

2017-01-01

The first aim of this research was to assess the effectiveness, in terms of emotional and behavioral reactions, of moderately vs. highly TVWs (Threatening Visual Warnings) displayed on tobacco packs. Given the key role that emotional reactions play in explaining the effect of TVWs on behaviors, psychophysiological and self-report methods were used–for the first time in this context–to measure the emotions provoked by TVWs. The second aim of this research was to determine whether increasing the size of warnings, and their display on plain packaging (compared with branded packaging) would improve their effectiveness. A within-subjects experiment was conducted. Three variables were manipulated: health warning threat level (high vs. moderate), image size (40% vs. 75%) and pack type (plain vs. branded). A convenience sample of 48 French daily smokers participated. They were exposed to eight different packs of cigarettes in a research lab at the University of Rennes. Smokers’ emotions and behavioral intentions were recorded through self-reports. Emotions were also evaluated using psychophysiological measurements: electrodermal activity and facial electromyography. The results revealed that TVWs with a high threat level are the most effective in increasing negative emotions (fear, disgust, valence, arousal) and behavioral intentions conducive to public health (desire to quit, etc.). They also highlight the appeal of increasing the size of the warnings and displaying them on plain packs, because this influences emotions, which is the first step toward behavioral change. Increasing the threat level of TVWs from moderate to high seems beneficial for public health. Our results also confirm the relevance of recent governmental decisions to adopt plain packaging and larger TVWs (in the UK, France, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand, Hungary, etc.). PMID:28910317

Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

2012-04-01

Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special-purpose components, such as simulation systems, in TEWS will be presented.

The influence of threatening visual warnings on tobacco packaging: Measuring the impact of threat level, image size, and type of pack through psychophysiological and self-report methods.

PubMed

Droulers, Olivier; Gallopel-Morvan, Karine; Lacoste-Badie, Sophie; Lajante, Mathieu

2017-01-01

The first aim of this research was to assess the effectiveness, in terms of emotional and behavioral reactions, of moderately vs. highly TVWs (Threatening Visual Warnings) displayed on tobacco packs. Given the key role that emotional reactions play in explaining the effect of TVWs on behaviors, psychophysiological and self-report methods were used-for the first time in this context-to measure the emotions provoked by TVWs. The second aim of this research was to determine whether increasing the size of warnings, and their display on plain packaging (compared with branded packaging) would improve their effectiveness. A within-subjects experiment was conducted. Three variables were manipulated: health warning threat level (high vs. moderate), image size (40% vs. 75%) and pack type (plain vs. branded). A convenience sample of 48 French daily smokers participated. They were exposed to eight different packs of cigarettes in a research lab at the University of Rennes. Smokers' emotions and behavioral intentions were recorded through self-reports. Emotions were also evaluated using psychophysiological measurements: electrodermal activity and facial electromyography. The results revealed that TVWs with a high threat level are the most effective in increasing negative emotions (fear, disgust, valence, arousal) and behavioral intentions conducive to public health (desire to quit, etc.). They also highlight the appeal of increasing the size of the warnings and displaying them on plain packs, because this influences emotions, which is the first step toward behavioral change. Increasing the threat level of TVWs from moderate to high seems beneficial for public health. Our results also confirm the relevance of recent governmental decisions to adopt plain packaging and larger TVWs (in the UK, France, Ireland, Canada, New Zealand, Hungary, etc.).

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Brickley, Elizabeth B

2012-01-01

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

2016-04-01

High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message by the WERA radars to TEWS. The radar measurements can be used to confirm a pre-warning and raise a tsunami alert. The output data of WERA processing software can be easily integrated into existing TEWS due to flexible data format, fast update rate and quality control of measurements. The archived radar data can be used for further hazard analysis and research purposes. The newly launched Tsunami Warning Center in Oman is one of the most sophisticated tsunami warning system world-wide applying a mix of well proven state-of-the-art subsystems. It allows the acquisition of data from many different sensor systems including seismic stations, GNSS, tide gauges, and WERA ocean radars in one acquisition system providing access to all sensor data via a common interface. The TEWS in Oman also integrates measurements of a modern network of HF ocean radars to verify tsunami simulations, which give additional scenario quality information and confirmation to the decision support.

Perspective: the evolution of warning coloration is not paradoxical.

PubMed

Marples, Nicola M; Kelly, David J; Thomas, Robert J

2005-05-01

Animals that are brightly colored have intrigued scientists since the time of Darwin, because it seems surprising that prey should have evolved to be clearly visible to predators. Often this self-advertisement is explained by the prey being unprofitable in some way, with the conspicuous warning coloration helping to protect the prey because it signals to potential predators that the prey is unprofitable. However, such signals only work in this way once predators have learned to associate the conspicuous color with the unprofitability of the prey. The evolution of warning coloration is still widely considered to be a paradox, because it has traditionally been assumed that the very first brightly colored individuals would be at an immediate selective disadvantage because of their greater conspicuousness to predators that are naive to the meaning of the signal. As a result, it has been difficult to understand how a novel conspicuous color morph could ever avoid extinction for long enough for predators to become educated about the signal. Thus, the traditional view that the evolution of warning coloration is difficult to explain rests entirely on assumptions about the foraging behavior of predators. However, we review recent evidence from a range of studies of predator foraging decisions, which refute these established assumptions. These studies show that: (1) Many predators are so conservative in their food preferences that even very conspicuous novel prey morphs are not necessarily at a selective disadvantage. (2) The survival and spread of novel color morphs can be simulated in field and aviary experiments using real predators (birds) foraging on successive generations of artificial prey populations. This work demonstrates that the foraging preferences of predators can regularly (though not always) result in the increase to fixation of a novel morph appearing in a population of familiar-colored prey. Such fixation events occur even if both novel and familiar prey are fully palatable and despite the novel food being much more conspicuous than the familiar prey. These studies therefore provide strong empirical evidence that conspicuous coloration can evolve readily, and repeatedly, as a result of the conservative foraging decisions of predators.

Reactions to FDA-Proposed Graphic Warning Labels Affixed to U.S. Smokers' Cigarette Packs.

PubMed

McQueen, Amy; Kreuter, Matthew W; Boyum, Sonia; Thompson, Vetta S; Caburnay, Charlene A; Waters, Erika A; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Rath, Suchitra; Fu, Qiang

2015-07-01

Graphic warning labels have been shown to be more effective than text-only labels in increasing attention and perceived health risks, but most U.S. studies have involved single exposures in laboratory or Internet settings. We recruited a convenience sample (N = 202) of U.S. adult smokers from population subgroups with higher rates of smoking and smoking-related deaths who had participated in a larger survey about graphic warning labels. Participants were randomized to get 1 of 9 graphic + text labels or a text-only label. Research staff affixed a warning label sticker to participants' cigarette pack(s) at enrollment. Color graphic labels covered slightly more than the lower half of packs. Black and white labels of current U.S. text-only warnings covered the existing side warning to prompt attention to the label (i.e., attention control). Participants received extra stickers of the same label for subsequent packs, and completed 3 telephone interviews in 1 week. Participants reported low avoidance (<34%) and consistent use of the stickers (91%). Smokers consistently paid more attention to graphic than text-only labels. Only 5 of the 9 graphic warning labels were significantly associated with greater thoughts of health risks. Thinking about quitting and stopping smoking did not differ by label. Qualitative data illustrated differences in the "stickiness," self-referencing, and counterarguments of graphic warning labels. U.S. smokers' reactions to graphic warning labels on their own packs were similar to other, more controlled studies. Qualitative findings underscore the need for warning labels that encourage self-referential processing without increasing defensive reactions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reactions to FDA-Proposed Graphic Warning Labels Affixed to U.S. Smokers’ Cigarette Packs

PubMed Central

Kreuter, Matthew W.; Boyum, Sonia; Thompson, Vetta S.; Caburnay, Charlene A.; Waters, Erika A.; Kaphingst, Kimberly A.; Rath, Suchitra; Fu, Qiang

2015-01-01

Introduction: Graphic warning labels have been shown to be more effective than text-only labels in increasing attention and perceived health risks, but most U.S. studies have involved single exposures in laboratory or Internet settings. Methods: We recruited a convenience sample (N = 202) of U.S. adult smokers from population subgroups with higher rates of smoking and smoking-related deaths who had participated in a larger survey about graphic warning labels. Participants were randomized to get 1 of 9 graphic + text labels or a text-only label. Research staff affixed a warning label sticker to participants’ cigarette pack(s) at enrollment. Color graphic labels covered slightly more than the lower half of packs. Black and white labels of current U.S. text-only warnings covered the existing side warning to prompt attention to the label (i.e., attention control). Participants received extra stickers of the same label for subsequent packs, and completed 3 telephone interviews in 1 week. Results: Participants reported low avoidance (<34%) and consistent use of the stickers (91%). Smokers consistently paid more attention to graphic than text-only labels. Only 5 of the 9 graphic warning labels were significantly associated with greater thoughts of health risks. Thinking about quitting and stopping smoking did not differ by label. Qualitative data illustrated differences in the “stickiness,” self-referencing, and counterarguments of graphic warning labels. Conclusions: U.S. smokers’ reactions to graphic warning labels on their own packs were similar to other, more controlled studies. Qualitative findings underscore the need for warning labels that encourage self-referential processing without increasing defensive reactions. PMID:25589676

A study of the connection between TV meteorologists and their viewers during severe weather broadcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Daniel M.

After the devastating tornadoes in Joplin, MO and in the Deep South in 2011, it seemed appropriate to look at the impact that broadcast meteorologists (and their TV coverage) have on their viewers during severe weather events. Broadcast meteorologists play a vital role in the severe weather warning process and in persuading the public to take the appropriate actions during severe weather. This research was done by developing a survey that addressed the following questions: 1) Is the media doing everything they can persuade viewers to take shelter and protect themselves and their property?; 2) What do you do when a tornado warning is issued?; 3) Is there anything broadcast meteorologists can do or say that will make you take immediate action during severe weather? The survey was disseminated through television markets in Missouri. The goal of this research was to find new, improved and different ways of "connecting" with viewing during severe weather coverage. After looking at the results, we want to see if there are specific words, images or anything else a broadcaster can do that will trigger a response by viewers to take cover. It is my hope the results and analyses from this survey will provide broadcast meteorologists with new and improved techniques to connect with the public and to assist them in making an informed decision during severe weather events.

Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

2014-05-01

In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

Impact of Tobacco-Related Health Warning Labels across Socioeconomic, Race and Ethnic Groups: Results from a Randomized Web-Based Experiment

PubMed Central

Cantrell, Jennifer; Vallone, Donna M.; Thrasher, James F.; Nagler, Rebekah H.; Feirman, Shari P.; Muenz, Larry R.; He, David Y.; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2013-01-01

Background The U.S. Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009 requires updating of the existing text-only health warning labels on tobacco packaging with nine new warning statements accompanied by pictorial images. Survey and experimental research in the U.S. and other countries supports the effectiveness of pictorial health warning labels compared with text-only warnings for informing smokers about the risks of smoking and encouraging cessation. Yet very little research has examined differences in reactions to warning labels by race/ethnicity, education or income despite evidence that population subgroups may differ in their ability to process health information. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the potential impact of pictorial warning labels compared with text-only labels among U.S. adult smokers from diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups. Methods/Findings Participants were adult smokers recruited from two online research panels (n = 3,371) into a web-based experimental study to view either the new pictorial warnings or text-only warnings. Participants viewed the labels and reported their reactions. Adjusted regression models demonstrated significantly stronger reactions for the pictorial condition for each outcome salience (b = 0.62, p<.001); perceived impact (b = 0.44, p<.001); credibility (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.22−1.62), and intention to quit (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.10−1.53). No significant results were found for interactions between condition and race/ethnicity, education, or income. The only exception concerned the intention to quit outcome, where the condition-by-education interaction was nearly significant (p = 0.057). Conclusions Findings suggest that the greater impact of the pictorial warning label compared to the text-only warning is consistent across diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic populations. Given their great reach, pictorial health warning labels may be one of the few tobacco control policies that have the potential to reduce communication inequalities across groups. Policies that establish strong pictorial warning labels on tobacco packaging may be instrumental in reducing the toll of the tobacco epidemic, particularly within vulnerable communities. PMID:23341895

Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

2015-04-01

Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation options was presented to the local community. The options were based on a thorough stakeholder involvement process ending up in three different views on how to deal with the landslide risk situation: i) protect lives and properties (hierarchical) ; ii) careful stewardship of the mountains (egalitarian); and iii) rational individual choice (individualist).

How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lapenta, W.

2017-12-01

NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and prediction. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the value of the satellite component of the global observing system to NWS operational weather forecasting and emphasize how these data form a critical component of the NWS ability to protect life and property and ensure economic well-being.

The complications of controlling agency time discretion: FDA review deadlines and postmarket drug safety.

PubMed

Carpenter, Daniel; Chattopadhyay, Jacqueline; Moffitt, Susan; Nall, Clayton

2012-01-01

Public agencies have discretion on the time domain, and politicians deploy numerous policy instruments to constrain it. Yet little is known about how administrative procedures that affect timing also affect the quality of agency decisions. We examine whether administrative deadlines shape decision timing and the observed quality of decisions. Using a unique and rich dataset of FDA drug approvals that allows us to examine decision timing and quality, we find that this administrative tool induces a piling of decisions before deadlines, and that these “just-before-deadline” approvals are linked with higher rates of postmarket safety problems (market withdrawals, severe safety warnings, safety alerts). Examination of data from FDA advisory committees suggests that the deadlines may impede quality by impairing late-stage deliberation and agency risk communication. Our results both support and challenge reigning theories about administrative procedures, suggesting they embody expected control-expertise trade-offs, but may also create unanticipated constituency losses.

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, John M.; Wan, C. Yoon; Vasandani, Vijay

1987-01-01

The current research is focused on detection of human error and protection from its consequences. A program for monitoring pilot error by comparing pilot actions to a script was described. It dealt primarily with routine errors (slips) that occurred during checklist activity. The model to which operator actions were compared was a script. Current research is an extension along these two dimensions. The ORS fault detection aid uses a sophisticated device model rather than a script. The newer initiative, the model-based and constraint-based warning system, uses an even more sophisticated device model and is to prevent all types of error, not just slips or bad decision.

Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks in Mauritania and Related Environmental Conditions

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Ndione, Jacques A.; Diallo, Mawlouth; MacLeod, Dave A.; Faye, Ousmane; Ba, Yamar; Dia, Ibrahima; Morse, Andrew P.

2014-01-01

Four large outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) occurred in Mauritania in 1998, 2003, 2010 and 2012 which caused lots of animal and several human deaths. We investigated rainfall and vegetation conditions that might have impacted on RVF transmission over the affected regions. Our results corroborate that RVF transmission generally occurs during the months of September and October in Mauritania, similarly to Senegal. The four outbreaks were preceded by a rainless period lasting at least a week followed by heavy precipitation that took place during the second half of the rainy season. First human infections were generally reported three to five weeks later. By bridging the gap between meteorological forecasting centers and veterinary services, an early warning system might be developed in Senegal and Mauritania to warn decision makers and health services about the upcoming RVF risk. PMID:24413703

When Health Policy and Empirical Evidence Collide: The Case of Cigarette Package Warning Labels and Economic Consumer Surplus

PubMed Central

Song, Anna V.; Brown, Paul

2014-01-01

In its graphic warning label regulations on cigarette packages, the Food and Drug Administration severely discounts the benefits of reduced smoking because of the lost “pleasure” smokers experience when they stop smoking; this is quantified as lost “consumer surplus.” Consumer surplus is grounded in rational choice theory. However, empirical evidence from psychological cognitive science and behavioral economics demonstrates that the assumptions of rational choice are inconsistent with complex multidimensional decisions, particularly smoking. Rational choice does not account for the roles of emotions, misperceptions, optimistic bias, regret, and cognitive inefficiency that are germane to smoking, particularly because most smokers begin smoking in their youth. Continued application of a consumer surplus discount will undermine sensible policies to reduce tobacco use and other policies to promote public health. PMID:24328661

Flash flood warnings for ungauged basins based on high-resolution precipitation forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Janet, Bruno

2016-04-01

Early detection of flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, is still challenging due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Also the rapid rising of waters necessarily limits the lead time of warnings to alert communities and activate effective emergency procedures. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km²) ungauged basins based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The current deterministic AIGA system has been run in real-time in the South of France since 2005 and has been tested in the RHYTMME project (rhytmme.irstea.fr/). It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced for implementing the national flash flood warning system for the entire French territory by 2016. To further extend the effective warning lead time, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to ingest Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts. The AROME-NWC system combines the most recent available observations with forecasts from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015). AROME-NWC pre-operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, produced every hour at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon, were provided for 3 significant rain events in September and November 2014 and ingested as time-lagged ensembles. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 185 basins in the South of France showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). Various verification metrics (e.g., Relative Mean Error, Brier Skill Score) show the skill of ensemble precipitation and flow forecasts compared to single-valued persistency benchmarks. Planned enhancements include integrating additional probabilistic NWP products (e.g., AROME precipitation ensembles on longer forecast horizon), accounting for and reducing hydrologic uncertainties from the model parameters and initial conditions via data assimilation, and developing a comprehensive observational and post-event damage database to determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi: 10.1002/qj.2463

Auditory displays as occasion setters.

PubMed

Mckeown, Denis; Isherwood, Sarah; Conway, Gareth

2010-02-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether representational sounds that capture the richness of experience of a collision enhance performance in braking to avoid a collision relative to other forms of warnings in a driving simulator. There is increasing interest in auditory warnings that are informative about their referents. But as well as providing information about some intended object, warnings may be designed to set the occasion for a rich body of information about the outcomes of behavior in a particular context. These richly informative warnings may offer performance advantages, as they may be rapidly processed by users. An auditory occasion setter for a collision (a recording of screeching brakes indicating imminent collision) was compared with two other auditory warnings (an abstract and an "environmental" sound), a speech message, a visual display, and no warning in a fixed-base driving simulator as interfaces to a collision avoidance system. The main measure was braking response times at each of two headways (1.5 s and 3 s) to a lead vehicle. The occasion setter demonstrated statistically significantly faster braking responses at each headway in 8 out of 10 comparisons (with braking responses equally fast to the abstract warning at 1.5 s and the environmental warning at 3 s). Auditory displays that set the occasion for an outcome in a particular setting and for particular behaviors may offer small but critical performance enhancements in time-critical applications. The occasion setter could be applied in settings where speed of response by users is of the essence.

Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelis, María Carolina; Werner, Micha

2018-02-01

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental to extend forecast lead times beyond the concentration time of a watershed. Particularly for flash flood forecasting in tropical mountainous watersheds, forecast precipitation is required to provide timely warnings. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that bias correction can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The paper focuses on the comparison of streamflows obtained from the post-processed precipitation forecasts, particularly the comparison of ensemble forecasts and their potential in providing skilful flood forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce precipitation forecasts that are post-processed and used to drive a hydrologic model. Discharge forecasts obtained from the hydrological model are used to assess the skill of the WRF model. The results show that post-processed WRF precipitation adds value to the flood early warning system when compared to zero-precipitation forecasts, although the precipitation forecast used in this analysis showed little added value when compared to climatology. However, the reduction of biases obtained from the post-processed ensembles show the potential of this method and model to provide usable precipitation forecasts in tropical mountainous watersheds. The need for more detailed evaluation of the WRF model in the study area is highlighted, particularly the identification of the most suitable parameterisation, due to the inability of the model to adequately represent the convective precipitation found in the study area.

Can nutritional information modify purchase of ultra-processed products? Results from a simulated online shopping experiment.

PubMed

Machín, Leandro; Arrúa, Alejandra; Giménez, Ana; Curutchet, María Rosa; Martínez, Joseline; Ares, Gastón

2018-01-01

The aim of the present work was to evaluate the influence of two front-of-pack nutrition information schemes (traffic-light system and Chilean warning system) on consumer purchase of ultra-processed foods in a simulated online grocery store. Following a between-subjects design, participants completed a simulated weekly food purchase in an online grocery store under one of three experimental conditions: (i) a control condition with no nutrition information, (ii) a traffic-light system and (iii) the Chilean warning system. Information about energy (calories), sugar, saturated fats and salt content was included in the nutrition information schemes. Participants were recruited from a consumer database and a Facebook advertisement. People from Montevideo (Uruguay), aged 18-77 years (n 437; 75 % female), participated in the study. All participants were in charge of food purchase in the household, at least occasionally. No significant differences between experimental conditions were found in the mean share of ultra-processed foods purchased by participants, both in terms of number of products and expenditure, or in the mean energy, sugar, saturated fat and salt content of the purchased items. However, the Chilean warning system decreased intended purchase of sweets and desserts. Results from this online simulation provided little evidence to suggest that the traffic-light system or the Chilean warning system in isolation could be effective in reducing purchase of ultra-processed foods or improving the nutritional composition of the purchased products.

Timely Reporting and Interactive Visualization of Animal Health and Slaughterhouse Surveillance Data in Switzerland.

PubMed

Muellner, Ulrich J; Vial, Flavie; Wohlfender, Franziska; Hadorn, Daniela; Reist, Martin; Muellner, Petra

2015-01-01

The reporting of outputs from health surveillance systems should be done in a near real-time and interactive manner in order to provide decision makers with powerful means to identify, assess, and manage health hazards as early and efficiently as possible. While this is currently rarely the case in veterinary public health surveillance, reporting tools do exist for the visual exploration and interactive interrogation of health data. In this work, we used tools freely available from the Google Maps and Charts library to develop a web application reporting health-related data derived from slaughterhouse surveillance and from a newly established web-based equine surveillance system in Switzerland. Both sets of tools allowed entry-level usage without or with minimal programing skills while being flexible enough to cater for more complex scenarios for users with greater programing skills. In particular, interfaces linking statistical softwares and Google tools provide additional analytical functionality (such as algorithms for the detection of unusually high case occurrences) for inclusion in the reporting process. We show that such powerful approaches could improve timely dissemination and communication of technical information to decision makers and other stakeholders and could foster the early-warning capacity of animal health surveillance systems.

Representativity and univocity of traffic signs and their effect on trajectory movement in a driving simulation task: Warning signs.

PubMed

Vilchez, Jose Luis

2017-07-04

The effect of traffic signs on the behavior of drivers is not completely understood. Knowing about how humans process the meaning of signs (not just by learning but instinctively) will improve reaction time and decision making when traveling. The economic, social, and psychological consequences of car accidents are well known. This study sounds out which traffic signs are more ergonomic for participants, from a cognitive point of view, and determines, at the same time, their effect in participants' movement trajectories in a driving simulation task. Results point out that the signs least representative of their meaning produce a greater deviation from the center of the road than the most representative ones. This study encourages both an in-depth analysis of the effect on movement of roadside signs and the study of how this effect can be modified by the context in which these signs are presented (with the aim to move the research closer to and analyze the data in real contexts). The goal is to achieve clarity of meaning and lack of counterproductive effects on the trajectory of representative signs (those that provoke fewer mistakes in the decision task).

Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.

2015-12-01

The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a monthly basis.

Meteotsunamis, destructive tsunami-like waves: from observations and simulations towards a warning system (MESSI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica

2016-04-01

Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.

Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-01-01

Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

Believability of Cigar Warning Labels Among Adolescents.

PubMed

Kowitt, Sarah D; Jarman, Kristen; Ranney, Leah M; Goldstein, Adam O

2017-03-01

Despite high rates of cigar use among youth, little information exists about how cigar warnings are received by youth. We examined believability of different cigar warning messages with different sources among adolescents in a national phone survey. Adolescents (aged 13-17 years) in the US (N = 1,125; total response rate, 66%) were randomized to receive one of three health messages ("cigar smoking can cause cancers of the mouth and throat, even if you do not inhale," "cigar smoking can cause lung cancer and heart disease," and "cigars are not a safe alternative to cigarettes") and one of four warning sources (Food and Drug Administration, Surgeon General, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and no source). Believability was assessed with "how believable is this warning," and responses were dichotomized for "not at all or somewhat" versus "very." Weighted logistic regression results indicated that most youth found the cigar warnings very believable (60.5%). Messages about mouth and throat cancer (regardless of inhalation) and the safety of cigars in comparison to cigarettes were rated as significantly less believable than messages about lung cancer and heart disease related to cigars. There were no significant differences by source or other demographics. However, youth susceptible to using cigarettes were less likely to report the cigar warnings to be very believable. The messages of cigar warning labels are not viewed as equally believable among adolescents. Future studies should examine how youth process messages about health effects of cigars and the impact of different cigar warnings on youth experimentation with and use of cigars. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards a Decision Support Tool for 3d Visualisation: Application to Selectivity Purpose of Single Object in a 3d City Scene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuville, R.; Pouliot, J.; Poux, F.; Hallot, P.; De Rudder, L.; Billen, R.

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the establishment of a comprehensive methodological framework that defines 3D visualisation rules and its application in a decision support tool. Whilst the use of 3D models grows in many application fields, their visualisation remains challenging from the point of view of mapping and rendering aspects to be applied to suitability support the decision making process. Indeed, there exists a great number of 3D visualisation techniques but as far as we know, a decision support tool that facilitates the production of an efficient 3D visualisation is still missing. This is why a comprehensive methodological framework is proposed in order to build decision tables for specific data, tasks and contexts. Based on the second-order logic formalism, we define a set of functions and propositions among and between two collections of entities: on one hand static retinal variables (hue, size, shape…) and 3D environment parameters (directional lighting, shadow, haze…) and on the other hand their effect(s) regarding specific visual tasks. It enables to define 3D visualisation rules according to four categories: consequence, compatibility, potential incompatibility and incompatibility. In this paper, the application of the methodological framework is demonstrated for an urban visualisation at high density considering a specific set of entities. On the basis of our analysis and the results of many studies conducted in the 3D semiotics, which refers to the study of symbols and how they relay information, the truth values of propositions are determined. 3D visualisation rules are then extracted for the considered context and set of entities and are presented into a decision table with a colour coding. Finally, the decision table is implemented into a plugin developed with three.js, a cross-browser JavaScript library. The plugin consists of a sidebar and warning windows that help the designer in the use of a set of static retinal variables and 3D environment parameters.

Automation technology using Geographic Information System (GIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, Cynthia L.

1994-01-01

Airport Surface Movement Area is but one of the actions taken to increase the capacity and safety of existing airport facilities. The System Integration Branch (SIB) has designed an integrated system consisting of an electronic moving display in the cockpit, and includes display of taxi routes which will warn controllers and pilots of the position of other traffic and warning information automatically. Although, this system has in test simulation proven to be accurate and helpful; the initial process of obtaining an airport layout of the taxi-routes and designing each of them is a very tedious and time-consuming process. Other methods of preparing the display maps are being researched. One such method is the use of the Geographical Information System (GIS). GIS is an integrated system of computer hardware and software linking topographical, demographic and other resource data that is being referenced. The software can support many areas of work with virtually unlimited information compatibility due to the system's open architecture. GIS will allow us to work faster with increased efficiency and accuracy while providing decision making capabilities. GIS is currently being used at the Langley Research Center with other applications and has been validated as an accurate system for that task. GIS usage for our task will involve digitizing aerial photographs of the topology for each taxi-runway and identifying each position according to its specific spatial coordinates. The information currently being used can be integrated with the GIS system, due to its ability to provide a wide variety of user interfaces. Much more research and data analysis will be needed before this technique will be used, however we are hopeful this will lead to better usage of man-power and technological capabilities for the future.

Development of a framework for resilience measurement: Suggestion of fuzzy Resilience Grade (RG) and fuzzy Resilience Early Warning Grade (REWG).

PubMed

Omidvar, Mohsen; Mazloumi, Adel; Mohammad Fam, Iraj; Nirumand, Fereshteh

2017-01-01

Resilience engineering (RE) can be an alternative technique to the traditional risk assessment and management techniques, to predict and manage safety conditions of modern socio-technical organizations. While traditional risk management approaches are retrospective and highlight error calculation and computation of malfunction possibilities, resilience engineering seeks ways to improve capacity at all levels of organizations in order to build strong yet flexible processes. Considering the resilience potential measurement as a concern in complex working systems, the aim of this study was to quantify the resilience by the help of fuzzy sets and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) techniques. In this paper, we adopted the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method to measure resilience in a gas refinery plant. A resilience assessment framework containing six indicators, each with its own sub-indicators, was constructed. Then, the fuzzy weights of the indicators and the sub-indicators were derived from pair-wise comparisons conducted by experts. The fuzzy evaluating vectors of the indicators and the sub-indicators computed according to the initial assessment data. Finally, the Comprehensive Resilience Index (CoRI), Resilience Grade (RG), and Resilience Early Warning Grade (REWG) were established. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, an illustrative example in a gas refinery complex (an instance of socio-technical systems) was provided. CoRI of the refinery ranked as "III". In addition, for the six main indicators, RG and REWG ranked as "III" and "NEWZ", respectively, except for C3, in which RG ranked as "II", and REWG ranked as "OEWZ". The results revealed the engineering practicability and usefulness of the proposed method in resilience evaluation of socio-technical systems.

Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

2016-04-01

Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in flood event management, the more damage can be reduced. And with decisions based on probabilistic forecasts, partial decisions can be made earlier in time (with a lower probability) and can be scaled up or down later in time when there is more certainty; whether the event takes place or not. Partial decisions are often more cheap, or shorten the final mitigation-time at the moment when there is more certainty. The proposed method is tested on Stonehaven, on the Carron River in Scotland. Decisions to implement demountable defences in the town are currently made based on a very short lead-time due to the absence of certainty. Application showed that staged decision making is possible and gives the decision maker more time to respond to a situation. The decision maker is able to take a lower regret decision with higher uncertainty and less related negative consequences. Although it is not possible to quantify intangible effects, it is part of the analysis to reduce these effects. Above all, the proposed approach has shown to be a possible improvement in economic terms and opens up possibilities of more flexible and robust decision making.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

Labelling and 'Dear Doctor' letters: are they noncommittal?

PubMed

van Grootheest, A C Kees; Edwards, I Ralph

2002-01-01

Over the past few years, a number of drugs have been withdrawn for safety reasons, either by drug approval authorities, or by the manufacturer. A recent example is the withdrawal of cerivastatin in connection with rhabdomyolysis. Several other drugs have also been taken off the market as a security measure, not because the nature of the risk involved was unknown but because the risk had proved apparently uncontainable. It seems that the inclusion of a warning or contraindication in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC) or sending a 'Dear Doctor' letter is insufficient to ensure compliant prescription behaviour. There appears to be a discrepancy between the careful use of evidence underpinning the SPC content and formal warnings and changes to the SPC and the effect they have on the prescription and dispensing of the drugs involved. This results in undue loss or damage for both the manufacturer and the patient. There are no easy solutions to tackle this problem; the ineffectiveness of labelling and 'Dear Doctor' letters has ramifications for the whole regulatory/ industrial/educational complex. We discuss briefly four possible strategies for improving the current situation, with the emphasis on the place the prescriber has in this process. The first strategy is education-based. Clinicians need to know about the comparative merits of the effectiveness and risk of drugs, as well as how they work pharmacologically, toxicologically, and what interactions they have with each other. The second strategy involves improving the information available for clinicians. Frequently, physicians do not consult the SPC for verification, leaving aside whether they have taken notice of the contents of the official SPC in the first place. It is recommended that the accessibility of SPCs is enhanced for doctors and pharmacists, drawing attention specifically to any changes. There needs to be a single body of information that covers every drug. The third strategy involves communication. There is much to be done in this area both in terms of follow-up and understanding of health professional's behaviour and how to empower best practise. The final strategy involves professional freedom. It goes without saying that doctors who issue off-label prescriptions may need to justify their actions. Deviating from the SPC should always be a considered decision and health professionals need to be aware of the additional responsibilities associated with such a decision. The dispensing pharmacist can play an important role in the implementation of warnings and contraindications.

Elements of an integrated health monitoring framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Michael; Elgamal, Ahmed; Conte, Joel P.; Masri, Sami; Fountain, Tony; Gupta, Amarnath; Trivedi, Mohan; El Zarki, Magda

2003-07-01

Internet technologies are increasingly facilitating real-time monitoring of Bridges and Highways. The advances in wireless communications for instance, are allowing practical deployments for large extended systems. Sensor data, including video signals, can be used for long-term condition assessment, traffic-load regulation, emergency response, and seismic safety applications. Computer-based automated signal-analysis algorithms routinely process the incoming data and determine anomalies based on pre-defined response thresholds and more involved signal analysis techniques. Upon authentication, appropriate action may be authorized for maintenance, early warning, and/or emergency response. In such a strategy, data from thousands of sensors can be analyzed with near real-time and long-term assessment and decision-making implications. Addressing the above, a flexible and scalable (e.g., for an entire Highway system, or portfolio of Networked Civil Infrastructure) software architecture/framework is being developed and implemented. This framework will network and integrate real-time heterogeneous sensor data, database and archiving systems, computer vision, data analysis and interpretation, physics-based numerical simulation of complex structural systems, visualization, reliability & risk analysis, and rational statistical decision-making procedures. Thus, within this framework, data is converted into information, information into knowledge, and knowledge into decision at the end of the pipeline. Such a decision-support system contributes to the vitality of our economy, as rehabilitation, renewal, replacement, and/or maintenance of this infrastructure are estimated to require expenditures in the Trillion-dollar range nationwide, including issues of Homeland security and natural disaster mitigation. A pilot website (http://bridge.ucsd.edu/compositedeck.html) currently depicts some basic elements of the envisioned integrated health monitoring analysis framework.

The Infusion of Dust Model Model Outputs into Public Health Decision Making - an Examination of Differential Adoption of SOAP and Open Geospatial Consortium Service Products into Public Health Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, K. K.

2008-12-01

Since 2004 the Earth Data Analysis Center, in collaboration with the researchers at the University of Arizona and George Mason University, with funding from NASA, has been developing a services oriented architecture (SOA) that acquires remote sensing, meteorological forecast, and observed ground level particulate data (EPA AirNow) from NASA, NOAA, and DataFed through a variety of standards-based service interfaces. These acquired data are used to initialize and set boundary conditions for the execution of the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) to generate daily 48-hour dust forecasts, which are then published via a combination of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) services (WMS and WCS), basic HTTP request-based services, and SOAP services. The goal of this work has been to develop services that can be integrated into existing public health decision support systems (DSS) to provide enhanced environmental data (i.e. ground surface particulate concentration estimates) for use in epidemiological analysis, public health warning systems, and syndromic surveillance systems. While the project has succeeded in deploying these products into the target systems, there has been differential adoption of the different service interface products, with the simple OGC and HTTP interfaces generating much greater interest by DSS developers and researchers than the more complex SOAP service interfaces. This paper reviews the SOA developed as part of this project and provides insights into how different service models may have a significant impact on the infusion of Earth science products into decision making processes and systems.

Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

2015-04-01

We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region, providing specific alert levels for 25 distinct alert zones. In addition, the system can be used to gather, analyze, display, explore, interpret and store rainfall data, thus representing a potential support to both decision makers and scientists.

Forewarning of hypotensive events using a Bayesian artificial neural network in neurocritical care.

PubMed

Donald, Rob; Howells, Tim; Piper, Ian; Enblad, P; Nilsson, P; Chambers, I; Gregson, B; Citerio, G; Kiening, K; Neumann, J; Ragauskas, A; Sahuquillo, J; Sinnott, R; Stell, A

2018-05-24

Traumatically brain injured (TBI) patients are at risk from secondary insults. Arterial hypotension, critically low blood pressure, is one of the most dangerous secondary insults and is related to poor outcome in patients. The overall aim of this study was to get proof of the concept that advanced statistical techniques (machine learning) are methods that are able to provide early warning of impending hypotensive events before they occur during neuro-critical care. A Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN) model predicting episodes of hypotension was developed using data from 104 patients selected from the BrainIT multi-center database. Arterial hypotension events were recorded and defined using the Edinburgh University Secondary Insult Grades (EUSIG) physiological adverse event scoring system. The BANN was trained on a random selection of 50% of the available patients (n = 52) and validated on the remaining cohort. A multi-center prospective pilot study (Phase 1, n = 30) was then conducted with the system running live in the clinical environment, followed by a second validation pilot study (Phase 2, n = 49). From these prospectively collected data, a final evaluation study was done on 69 of these patients with 10 patients excluded from the Phase 2 study because of insufficient or invalid data. Each data collection phase was a prospective non-interventional observational study conducted in a live clinical setting to test the data collection systems and the model performance. No prediction information was available to the clinical teams during a patient's stay in the ICU. The final cohort (n = 69), using a decision threshold of 0.4, and including false positive checks, gave a sensitivity of 39.3% (95% CI 32.9-46.1) and a specificity of 91.5% (95% CI 89.0-93.7). Using a decision threshold of 0.3, and false positive correction, gave a sensitivity of 46.6% (95% CI 40.1-53.2) and specificity of 85.6% (95% CI 82.3-88.8). With a decision threshold of 0.3, > 15 min warning of patient instability can be achieved. We have shown, using advanced machine learning techniques running in a live neuro-critical care environment, that it would be possible to give neurointensive teams early warning of potential hypotensive events before they emerge, allowing closer monitoring and earlier clinical assessment in an attempt to prevent the onset of hypotension. The multi-centre clinical infrastructure developed to support the clinical studies provides a solid base for further collaborative research on data quality, false positive correction and the display of early warning data in a clinical setting.

A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao

2018-01-01

This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

Probability effects on stimulus evaluation and response processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehring, W. J.; Gratton, G.; Coles, M. G.; Donchin, E.

1992-01-01

This study investigated the effects of probability information on response preparation and stimulus evaluation. Eight subjects responded with one hand to the target letter H and with the other to the target letter S. The target letter was surrounded by noise letters that were either the same as or different from the target letter. In 2 conditions, the targets were preceded by a warning stimulus unrelated to the target letter. In 2 other conditions, a warning letter predicted that the same letter or the opposite letter would appear as the imperative stimulus with .80 probability. Correct reaction times were faster and error rates were lower when imperative stimuli confirmed the predictions of the warning stimulus. Probability information affected (a) the preparation of motor responses during the foreperiod, (b) the development of expectancies for a particular target letter, and (c) a process sensitive to the identities of letter stimuli but not to their locations.

Benefit-cost analysis of lane departure warning and roll stability control in commercial vehicles.

PubMed

Medina-Flintsch, Alejandra; Hickman, Jeffrey S; Guo, Feng; Camden, Matthew C; Hanowski, Richard J; Kwan, Quon

2017-09-01

This paper presents the cost benefits of two different onboard safety systems (OSS) installed on trucks as they operated during normal revenue deliveries. Using a formal economic analysis approach, the study quantified the costs and benefits associated with lane departure warning (LDW) systems and roll stability control (RSC) systems. The study used data collected from participating carriers (many of these crashes were not reported to state or Federal agencies), and the research team also reviewed each crash file to determine if the specific OSS would have mitigated or prevented the crash. The deployment of each OSS was anticipated to increase the safety of all road users, but impact different sectors of society in different ways. Benefits that were inherent in each group (e.g., industry, society) were considered, and different benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) were performed. This paper presents two BCAs: a BCA focused on the costs and benefits in the carrier industry by implementing each OSS, and a BCA that measured the societal benefits of each OSS. In addition, a BCA for a theoretical mandatory deployment option for each OSS is presented. BCA results for LDW and RSC clearly showed their benefits outweighed their costs for the carrier and society. Practical applications: Cost information is a crucial factor in purchasing decisions in carriers; similarly, regulators must consider the cost burden prior to mandating technologies. The results in this study provide carrier decision makers and regulators with information necessary to make an informed decision regarding RSC and LDW. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

2017-04-01

In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

Believability of Cigar Warning Labels among Adolescents

PubMed Central

Kowitt, Sarah D.; Jarman, Kristen; Ranney, Leah M.; Goldstein, Adam O.

2016-01-01

Purpose Despite high rates of cigar use among youth, little information exists about how cigar warnings are received by youth. We examined believability of different cigar warning messages with different sources among adolescents in a national phone survey. Methods Adolescents (age 13-17) in the US (N = 1,125; total response rate, 66%) were randomized to receive one of three health messages (“cigar smoking can cause cancers of the mouth and throat, even if you do not inhale”, “cigar smoking can cause lung cancer and heart disease”, “cigars are not a safe alternative to cigarettes”) and one of four warning sources (FDA, Surgeon General, CDC, no source). Believability was assessed with “how believable is this warning” and responses were dichotomized for “not at all or somewhat” vs. “very”. Results Weighted logistic regression results indicated that most youth found the cigar warnings very believable (60.5%). Messages about mouth and throat cancer (regardless of inhalation) and the safety of cigars in comparison to cigarettes were rated as significantly less believable than messages about lung cancer and heart disease related to cigars. There were no significant differences by source or other demographics. However, youth susceptible to using cigarettes were less likely to report the cigar warnings to be very believable. Conclusions The messages of cigar warning labels are not viewed as equally believable among adolescents. Future studies should examine how youth process messages about health effects of cigars and the impact of different cigar warnings on youth experimentation with and use of cigars. PMID:27965023

Physio-Environmental Sensing and Live Modeling

PubMed Central

Diaz, Vanessa; Gaggioli, Andrea; Liò, Pietro; Mazzà, Claudia; Merelli, Emanuela; Meskers, Carel G.M; Pappalardo, Francesco; von Ammon, Rainer

2013-01-01

In daily life, humans are constantly interacting with their environment. Evidence is emerging that this interaction is a very important modulator of health and well-being, even more so in our rapidly ageing society. Information and communication technology lies at the heart of the human health care revolution. It cannot remain acceptable to use out of date data analysis and predictive algorithms when superior alternatives exist. Communication network speed, high penetration of home broadband, availability of various mobile network options, together with the available detailed biological data for individuals, are producing promising advances in computerized systems that will turn information on human-environment interactions into actual knowledge with the potential to help make medical and lifestyle decisions. We introduced and discussed a key scenario in which hardware and software technologies capable of simultaneously sensing physiological and environmental signals process health care data in real-time to issue alarms, warnings, or simple recommendations to the patient or carers. PMID:23612245

Airbus windshear warning and guidance system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonafe, J. L.

1990-01-01

From its first designed airplane, Airbus considered mandatory a help in the crew's decision-making process to initiate an escape maneuver and help to successfully realize it. All the Airbus airplanes designed since 1975 included an alpha-floor function and a speed reference control law imbedded in the speed reference system (SRS) box for A 300 and FAC and FCC for A 310, A300/600 and the A 320. Alpha-Floor function takes into account the airplane energy situation considering angle of attack and observed longitudinal situation in order to apply immediately the full power without any pilot action. Speed reference managers control airspeed and/or ground speed in order to survive a maximum in shear situation. In order to comply with the new FAA regulation: Aerospatiale and Airbus developed more efficient systems. A comparison between 1975 and a newly developed system is given. It is explained how the new system improves the situation.

Towards an integrated approach in surveillance of vector-borne diseases in Europe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Vector borne disease (VBD) emergence is a complex and dynamic process. Interactions between multiple disciplines and responsible health and environmental authorities are often needed for an effective early warning, surveillance and control of vectors and the diseases they transmit. To fully appreciate this complexity, integrated knowledge about the human and the vector population is desirable. In the current paper, important parameters and terms of both public health and medical entomology are defined in order to establish a common language that facilitates collaboration between the two disciplines. Special focus is put on the different VBD contexts with respect to the current presence or absence of the disease, the pathogen and the vector in a given location. Depending on the context, whether a VBD is endemic or not, surveillance activities are required to assess disease burden or threat, respectively. Following a decision for action, surveillance activities continue to assess trends. PMID:21967706

Hurricane preparedness: Current procedures at Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida.

PubMed

Devaney, Everett

2008-01-01

This paper discusses experience, methodology and recommendations for successful business continuity and disaster recovery planning for health care organisations. Hurricanes, tornadoes and other natural disasters are a regular occurrence in Florida. Low-lying coastal areas are at increased risk, with populations in inland areas as far as 200-300 miles with potential to suffer heavy damage. This case study shows how one institution, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Florida, provides and maintains emergency response plans for critical functions, services or processes before, during and after a disaster, in support of its 8.3 million customers, its stakeholders and colleagues such as providers and vendors. Even though modern tracking gives fair warning regarding hurricanes, the use of specific and tested emergency response planning is critical to allow business continuity decision-making well before disaster strikes. This study examines how functional units within a health care organisation can plan and prepare to protect the public who depend on their services and resources, as well as minimise the risk to employees and business stakeholders. Coordination of a Contingency Response Team (within the functional units) and an Enterprise Operations Centre must be well managed to minimise adverse customer service disruptions and at the same time minimise impact to the company. Decision making and communications are strictly organised to protect stakeholders, make temporary business rule changes, allow for alternative business processes and handle benefit decisions, following methodology known, tested and used in past scenarios. In summary, the paper explores key points to achieve active and engaged business continuity in the face of natural disasters - (1) planning & coordination, (2) monitoring, (3) response/activation and (4) recovery.

"Replicable effects of primes on human behavior": Correction to Payne et al. (2016).

PubMed

2016-12-01

Reports an error in "Replicable effects of primes on human behavior" by B. Keith Payne, Jazmin L. Brown-Iannuzzi and Chris Loersch ( Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , 2016[Oct], Vol 145[10], 1269-1279). In the article, the graph in Figure 5 did not contain the asterisk mentioned in the figure caption, which was intended to indicate a statistically significant difference between bet and pass prime. The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-46925-002.) The effect of primes (i.e., incidental cues) on human behavior has become controversial. Early studies reported counterintuitive findings, suggesting that primes can shape a wide range of human behaviors. Recently, several studies failed to replicate some earlier priming results, raising doubts about the reliability of those effects. We present a within-subjects procedure for priming behavior, in which participants decide whether to bet or pass on each trial of a gambling game. We report 6 replications (N = 988) showing that primes consistently affected gambling decisions when the decision was uncertain. Decisions were influenced by primes presented visibly, with a warning to ignore the primes (Experiments 1 through 3) and with subliminally presented masked primes (Experiment 4). Using a process dissociation procedure, we found evidence that primes influenced responses through both automatic and controlled processes (Experiments 5 and 6). Results provide evidence that primes can reliably affect behavior, under at least some conditions, without intention. The findings suggest that the psychological question of whether behavior priming effects are real should be separated from methodological issues affecting how easily particular experimental designs will replicate. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Building resilience to weather-related hazards through better preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Julia; Golding, Brian; Johnston, David; Ruti, Paolo

2017-04-01

Recent developments in weather forecasting have transformed our ability to predict weather-related hazards, while mobile communication is radically changing the way that people receive information. At the same time, vulnerability to weather-related hazards is growing through urban expansion, population growth and climate change. This talk will address issues facing the science community in responding to the Sendai Framework objective to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems" in the context of weather-related hazards. It will also provide an overview of activities and approaches developed in the World Meteorological Organisation's High Impact Weather (HIWeather) project. HIWeather has identified and is promoting research in key multi-disciplinary gaps in our knowledge, including in basic meteorology, risk prediction, communication and decision making, that affect our ability to provide effective warnings. The results will be pulled together in demonstration projects that will both showcase leading edge capability and build developing country capacity.

Early Warning of Food Security Crises in Urban Areas: The Case of Harare, Zimbabwe, 2007

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Funk, Christopher C.

2008-01-01

In 2007, the citizens of Harare, Zimbabwe began experiencing an intense food security crisis. The crisis, due to a complex mix of poor government policies, high inflation rates and production decline due to drought, resulted in a massive increase in the number of food insecure people in Harare. The international humanitarian aid response to this crisis was largely successful due to the early agreement among donors and humanitarian aid officials as to the size and nature of the problem. Remote sensing enabled an early and decisive movement of resources greatly assisting the delivery of food aid in a timely manner. Remote sensing data gave a clear and compelling assessment of significant crop production shortfalls, and provided donors of humanitarian assistance a single number around which they could come to agreement. This use of remote sensing data typifies how remote sensing may be used in early warning systems in Africa.

Forecasting The Onset Of The East African Rains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

2017-12-01

The timing of the rainy seasons is critical for East Africa, where many livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture. The exact onset date of the rains varies from year to year and a delayed start has significant implications for food security. Early warning of anomalous onset can help mitigate risks by informing farmer decisions on crop choice and timing of planting. Onset forecasts may also pre-warn governments and NGOs of upcoming need for financial support and humanitarian intervention. Here we assess the potential to forecast the onset of both the short and long rains over East Africa at subseasonal to seasonal timescales. Based on operational reforecasts from ECMWF, we will demonstrate skilful prediction of onset anomalies. An investigation to determine potential sources of this forecast skill will also be presented. This work has been carried out as part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action".

The relevance and legibility of radio/TV weather reports to the Austrian public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keul, A. G.; Holzer, A. M.

2013-03-01

The communicative quality of media weather reports, especially warnings, can be evaluated by user research. It is an interdisciplinary field, still uncoordinated after 35 years. The authors suggest to shift from a cognitive learning model to news processing, qualitative discourse and usability models as the media audience is in an edutainment situation where it acts highly selective. A series of field surveys 2008-2011 tested the relevance and legibility of Austrian radio and television weather reports on fair weather and in warning situations. 247 laypeople heard/saw original, mostly up-to-date radio/TV weather reports and recalled personally relevant data. Also, a questionnaire on weather knowledge was answered by 237 Austrians. Several research hypotheses were tested. The main results were (a) a relatively high level of meteorological knowledge of the general population, with interest and participation of German-speaking migrants, (b) a pluralistic media usage with TV, radio and internet as the leading media, (c) higher interest and attention (also for local weather) after warnings, but a risk of more false recalls after long warnings, (d) more recall problems with radio messages and a wish that the weather elements should always appear in the same order to faciliate processing for the audience. In their narrow time windows, radio/TV weather reports should concentrate on main features (synoptic situation, tomorrow's temperature and precipitation, possible warnings), keep a verbal “speed limit” and restrict show elements to serve the active, selective, multioptional, multicultural audience.

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Version 4.0 Brings Forecasting Speed, Accuracy, and Capability Improvements to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterling, K.; Denbo, D. W.; Eble, M. C.

2016-12-01

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) software was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for use in tsunami forecasting and has been used by both U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) since 2012, when SIFTv3.1 was operationally accepted. Since then, advancements in research and modeling have resulted in several new features being incorporated into SIFT forecasting. Following the priorities and needs of the TWCs, upgrades to SIFT forecasting were implemented into SIFTv4.0, scheduled to become operational in October 2016. Because every minute counts in the early warning process, two major time saving features were implemented in SIFT 4.0. To increase processing speeds and generate high-resolution flooding forecasts more quickly, the tsunami propagation and inundation codes were modified to run on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). To reduce time demand on duty scientists during an event, an automated DART inversion (or fitting) process was implemented. To increase forecasting accuracy, the forecasted amplitudes and inundations were adjusted to include dynamic tidal oscillations, thereby reducing the over-estimates of flooding common in SIFTv3.1 due to the static tide stage conservatively set at Mean High Water. Further improvements to forecasts were gained through the assimilation of additional real-time observations. Cabled array measurements from Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs) in the Oceans Canada NEPTUNE network are now available to SIFT for use in the inversion process. To better meet the needs of harbor masters and emergency managers, SIFTv4.0 adds a tsunami currents graphical product to the suite of disseminated forecast results. When delivered, these new features in SIFTv4.0 will improve the operational tsunami forecasting speed, accuracy, and capabilities at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers.

Performance evaluation of the national early warning system for shallow landslides in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl, Mads-Peter; Piciullo, Luca; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-04-01

As a consequence of the increased number of rainfall-and snowmelt-induced landslides (debris flows, debris slides, debris avalanches and slush flows) occurring in Norway, a national landslide early warning system (EWS) has been developed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially necessary of triggering slope failures. The system, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and has been designed in cooperation with the Norwegian Public Road Administration (SVV), the Norwegian National Rail Administration (JBV) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET). Decision-making in the EWS is based upon hazard threshold levels, hydro-meteorological and real-time landslide observations as well as landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Hazard threshold levels have been obtained through statistical analyses of historical landslides and modelled hydro-meteorological parameters. Daily hydro-meteorological conditions such as rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, soil saturation, groundwater level and frost depth have been derived from a distributed version of the hydrological HBV-model. Two different landslide susceptibility maps are used as supportive data in deciding daily warning levels. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days with an update possibility later during the day according to the information gathered by the monitoring variables. The performance of the EWS has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method. In particular, the performance of warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014 has been evaluated using two different landslide datasets. The best performance is obtained for the smallest and more accurate dataset. Different performance results may be observed as a function of changing the landslide density criterion, Lden(k), (i.e., thresholds considered to differentiate among classes of landslide events) used as an input parameter within the EDuMaP method. To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show clear differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

The Effectiveness of Reverse Telephon Emergency Warning Systems in the October 2007 San Diego Wildfires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorensen, John H; Sorensen, Barbara Vogt

2009-01-01

Late in October, 2007, fast-moving wildfires fueled by extreme Santa Ana winds threatened residents and their properties in San Diego County, California. The impacted area also included the City of San Diego within the County s boundaries. It turns out the San Diego firestorms would be the biggest in the County's history, surpassing the devastating 2003 firestorms in intensity, duration, and impacted populations. Both San Diego County and the City of San Diego have installed telephone reverse call-down emergency warning systems. A telephone survey of 1200 households located in areas identified by emergency officials as the evacuation zones for themore » 2007 fires was conducted in late March and early April 2008 using a random telephone dialing process to determine if people responded to the reverse telephone warning systems calls. Findings indicate that those who received a reverse emergency warning call were much more likely to evacuate than those who did not receive a call. The telephone calls were also the most likely source of first warning.« less

Real-time earthquake data feasible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Susan

Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, Roman

2001-08-01

That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic, rather than deterministic, terms has been argued from common sense and decision-theoretic perspectives for almost a century. Yet most operational hydrological forecasting systems produce deterministic forecasts and most research in operational hydrology has been devoted to finding the 'best' estimates rather than quantifying the predictive uncertainty. This essay presents a compendium of reasons for probabilistic forecasting of hydrological variates. Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest, enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits. The growing demand for information about risk and the rising capability to quantify predictive uncertainties create an unparalleled opportunity for the hydrological profession to dramatically enhance the forecasting paradigm.

Expressive freedom and tobacco advertising: a Canadian perspective.

PubMed

Manfredi, Christopher P

2002-03-01

In 1989, Canada enacted the Tobacco Products Control Act (TPCA), which prohibited tobacco advertising, required health warnings on tobacco packaging, and restricted promotional activities. Canada's tobacco companies challenged the TPCA's constitutionality, arguing that it infringed on freedom of expression. Although it seemed likely that the Canadian Supreme Court would uphold the legislation, in 1995 the court declared the impugned provisions to be unconstitutional. The decision is testimony to the constraining force of liberalism on tobacco regulation, but it is also evidence of the power of political will. While the Canadian government could have used the decision to justify withdrawing from further confrontations with powerful commercial interests, it chose instead to enact new tobacco control legislation in 1997.

On Complex Networks Representation and Computation of Hydrologycal Quantities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, F.; Bancheri, M.; David, O.; Rigon, R.

2017-12-01

Water is our blue gold. Despite results of discovery-based science keep warning public opinion about the looming worldwide water crisis, water is still treated as a not worth taking resource. Could a different multi-scale perspective affect environmental decision-making more deeply? Can also a further pairing to a new graphical representation of processes interaction sway decision-making more effectively and public opinion consequently?This abstract introduces a complex networks driven way to represent catchments eco-hydrology and related flexible informatics to manage it. The representation is built upon mathematical category. A category is an algebraic structure that comprises "objects" linked by "arrows". It is an evolution of Petri Nets said Time Continuous Petri Nets (TCPN). It aims to display (water) budgets processes and catchment interactions using explicative and self-contained symbolism. The result improves readability of physical processes compared to current descriptions. The IT perspective hinges on the Object Modeling System (OMS) v3. The latter is a non-invasive flexible environmental modeling framework designed to support component-based model development. The implementation of a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) data structure, named Net3, has recently enhanced its flexibility. Net3 represents interacting systems as complex networks: vertices match up with any sort of time evolving quantity; edges correspond to their data (fluxes) interchange. It currently hosts JGrass-NewAge components, and those implementing travel time analysis of fluxes. Further bio-physical or management oriented components can be easily added.This talk introduces both graphical representation and related informatics exercising actual applications and examples.

Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

Tobacco branding, plain packaging, pictorial warnings, and symbolic consumption.

PubMed

Hoek, Janet; Gendall, Philip; Gifford, Heather; Pirikahu, Gill; McCool, Judith; Pene, Gina; Edwards, Richard; Thomson, George

2012-05-01

We use brand association and symbolic consumption theory to explore how plain cigarette packaging would influence the identities young adults cocreate with tobacco products. Group discussions and in-depth interviews with 86 young adult smokers and nonsmokers investigated how participants perceive tobacco branding and plain cigarette packaging with larger health warnings. We examined the transcript data using thematic analysis and explored how removing tobacco branding and replacing this with larger warnings would affect the symbolic status of tobacco brands and their social connotations. Smokers used tobacco brand imagery to define their social attributes and standing, and their connection with specific groups. Plain cigarette packaging usurped this process by undermining aspirational connotations and exposing tobacco products as toxic. Replacing tobacco branding with larger health warnings diminishes the cachet brand insignia creates, weakens the social benefits brands confer on users, and represents a potentially powerful policy measure.

Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

PAVE PAWS Early Warning Radar Operation Cape Cod Air Force Station, MA. Record of Decision

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) C95.1-1999. Accordingly, the highest measurement was obtained directly in front of the feedhorn (i.e...waveform characterization of the Cape Cod AFS Pave PAWS radar. The data acquired during the Phase IV survey indicated that the electric fields produced...level observed among the ambient sites. During this survey, peak/average power density measurements and peak/average electric field measurements

Validation of the Intensive Care Unit Early Warning Dashboard: Quality Improvement Utilizing a Retrospective Case-Control Evaluation.

PubMed

Kavanaugh, Michael J; So, Joanne D; Park, Peter J; Davis, Konrad L

2017-02-01

Risk stratification with the Modified Early Warning System (MEWS) or electronic cardiac arrest trigger (eCART) has been utilized with ward patients to preemptively identify high-risk patients who might benefit from enhanced monitoring, including early intensive care unit (ICU) transfer. In-hospital mortality from cardiac arrest is ∼80%, making preventative interventions an important focus area. ICUs have lower patient to nurse ratios than wards, resulting in less emphasis on the development of ICU early warning systems. Our institution developed an early warning dashboard (EWD) identifying patients who may benefit from earlier interventions. Using the adverse outcomes of cardiac arrest, ICU mortality, and ICU readmissions, a retrospective case-control study was performed using three demographic items (age, diabetes, and morbid obesity) and 24 EWD measured items, including vital signs, laboratory values, ventilator information, and other clinical information, to validate the EWD. Ten statistically significant areas were identified for cardiac arrest and 13 for ICU death. Identified items included heart rate, dialysis, leukocytosis, and lactate. The ICU readmission outcome was compared to controls from both ICU patients and ward patients, and statistical significance was identified for respiratory rate >30. With several statistically significant data elements, the EWD parameters have been incorporated into advanced clinical decision algorithms to identify at-risk ICU patients. Earlier identification and treatment of organ failure in the ICU improve outcomes and the EWD can serve as a safety measure for both at-risk in-house patients and also extend critical care expertise through telemedicine to smaller hospitals.

Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

2017-10-01

A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

An electrophysiological study of the impact of a Forward Collision Warning System in a simulator driving task.

PubMed

Bueno, Mercedes; Fabrigoule, Colette; Deleurence, Philippe; Ndiaye, Daniel; Fort, Alexandra

2012-08-27

Driver distraction has been identified as the most important contributing factor in rear-end collisions. In this context, Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) have been developed specifically to warn drivers of potential rear-end collisions. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of a surrogate FCWS and of its reliability according to the driver's attentional state by recording both behavioral and electrophysiological data. Participants drove following a lead motorcycle in a simplified simulator with or without a warning system which gave forewarning of the preceding vehicle braking. Participants had to perform this driving task either alone (simple task) or simultaneously with a secondary cognitive task (dual task). Behavioral and electrophysiological data contributed to revealing a positive effect of the warning system. Participants were faster in detecting the brake light when the system was perfect or imperfect, and the time and attentional resources allocation required for processing the target at higher cognitive level were reduced when the system was completely reliable. When both tasks were performed simultaneously, warning effectiveness was considerably affected at both performance and neural levels; however, the analysis of the brain activity revealed fewer differences between distracted and undistracted drivers when using the warning system. These results show that electrophysiological data could be a valuable tool to complement behavioral data and to have a better understanding of how these systems impact the driver. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tsunami Detection Systems for International Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawson, R. A.

2007-12-01

Results are presented regarding the first commercially available, fully operational, tsunami detection system to have passed stringent U.S. government testing requirements and to have successfully demonstrated its ability to detect an actual tsunami at sea. Spurred by the devastation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami that killed more than 230,000 people, the private sector actively supported the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC"s) efforts to develop a tsunami warning system and mitigation plan for the Indian Ocean region. As each country in the region developed its requirements, SAIC recognized that many of these underdeveloped countries would need significant technical assistance to fully execute their plans. With the original focus on data fusion, consequence assessment tools, and warning center architecture, it was quickly realized that the cornerstone of any tsunami warning system would be reliable tsunami detection buoys that could meet very stringent operational standards. Our goal was to leverage extensive experience in underwater surveillance and oceanographic sensing to produce an enhanced and reliable deep water sensor that could meet emerging international requirements. Like the NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Recording of Tsunamis (DART TM ) buoy, the SAIC Tsunami Buoy (STB) system consists of three subsystems: a surfaccommunications buoy subsystem, a bottom pressure recorder subsystem, and a buoy mooring subsystem. With the operational success that DART has demonstrated, SAIC decided to build and test to the same high standards. The tsunami detection buoy system measures small changes in the depth of the deep ocean caused by tsunami waves as they propagate past the sensor. This is accomplished by using an extremely sensitive bottom pressure sensor/recorder to measure very small changes in pressure as the waves move past the buoy system. The bottom pressure recorder component includes a processor with algorithms that recognize these characteristics, and then immediately alerts a tsunami warning center through the communications buoy when the processor senses one of these waves. In addition to the tsunami detection buoy system, an end-to-end tsunami warning system was developed that builds upon the country's existing disaster warning infrastructure. This warning system includes 1) components that receive, process, and analyze buoy, seismic and tide gauge data; 2) predictive tools and a consequence assessment tool set to provide decision support; 3) operation center design and implementation; and 4) tsunami buoy operations and maintenance support. The first buoy was deployed Oct. 25, 2006, approximately 200 nautical miles west of San Diego in 3,800 meters of water. Just three weeks later, it was put to the test during an actual tsunami event. On Nov. 15, 2006, an 8.3 magnitude earthquake rocked the Kuril Islands, located between Japan and the Kamchatka Peninsula of Russia. That quake generated a small tsunami. Waves from the tsunami propagated approximately 4,000 nautical miles across the Pacific Ocean in about nine hours-- a speed of about 445 nautical miles per hour when this commercial buoy first detected them. Throughout that event, the tsunami buoy system showed excellent correlation with data collected by a NOAA DART buoy located 28 nautical miles north of it. Subsequent analysis revealed that the STB matched DART operational capabilities and performed flawlessly. The buoy proved its capabilities again on Jan. 13, 2007, when an 8.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in the same region, and the STB detected the seismic event. As a result of the successes of this entire project, SAIC recently applied for and received a license from NOAA to build DART systems.

Development of a precipitation-area curve for warning criteria of short-duration flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Deg-Hyo; Lee, Moon-Hwan; Moon, Sung-Keun

2018-01-01

This paper presents quantitative criteria for flash flood warning that can be used to rapidly assess flash flood occurrence based on only rainfall estimates. This study was conducted for 200 small mountainous sub-catchments of the Han River basin in South Korea because South Korea has recently suffered many flash flood events. The quantitative criteria are calculated based on flash flood guidance (FFG), which is defined as the depth of rainfall of a given duration required to cause frequent flooding (1-2-year return period) at the outlet of a small stream basin and is estimated using threshold runoff (TR) and antecedent soil moisture conditions in all sub-basins. The soil moisture conditions were estimated during the flooding season, i.e., July, August and September, over 7 years (2002-2009) using the Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. A ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to obtain optimum rainfall values and a generalized precipitation-area (P-A) curve was developed for flash flood warning thresholds. The threshold function was derived as a P-A curve because the precipitation threshold with a short duration is more closely related to basin area than any other variables. For a brief description of the P-A curve, generalized thresholds for flash flood warnings can be suggested for rainfall rates of 42, 32 and 20 mm h-1 in sub-basins with areas of 22-40, 40-100 and > 100 km2, respectively. The proposed P-A curve was validated based on observed flash flood events in different sub-basins. Flash flood occurrences were captured for 9 out of 12 events. This result can be used instead of FFG to identify brief flash flood (less than 1 h), and it can provide warning information to decision-makers or citizens that is relatively simple, clear and immediate.

[Identifying children at risk for cardiorespiratory arrest].

PubMed

Carrillo Alvarez, A; Martínez Gutiérrez, A; Salvat Germán, F

2004-08-01

Cardiorespiratory arrest in children with severe disease does not usually present suddenly or unexpectedly but is often the result of a progressive deterioration of respiratory and/or circulatory function. Before failure of these functions occurs, there is a series of clinical signs that serve as a warning. Health professionals should not only evaluate clinical signs of respiratory and/or circulatory insufficiency but should also be able to identify these warning signs as early as possible, preferably in the compensation phase, given that the possibility that this process can be reversed by therapeutic measures decreases as the process progresses.

A Comparison of Multisensor Precipitation Estimation Methods in Complex Terrain for Flash Flood Warning and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifelli, R.; Chen, H.; Chandrasekar, C. V.; Willie, D.; Reynolds, D.; Campbell, C.; Zhang, Y.; Sukovich, E.

2012-12-01

Investigating the uncertainties and improving the accuracy of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is a critical mission of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). QPE is extremely challenging in regions of complex terrain like the western U.S. because of the sparse coverage of ground-based radar, complex orographic precipitation processes, and the effects of beam blockages (e.g., Westrick et al. 1999). In addition, the rain gauge density in complex terrain is often inadequate to capture spatial variability in the precipitation patterns. The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) conducts research on precipitation and weather conditions that can lead to flooding, and fosters transition of scientific advances and new tools into forecasting operations (see hmt.noaa.gov). The HMT program consists of a series of demonstration projects in different geographical regions to enhance understanding of region specific processes related to precipitation, including QPE. There are a number of QPE systems that are widely used across NOAA for precipitation estimation (e.g., Cifelli et al. 2011; Chandrasekar et al. 2012). Two of these systems have been installed at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory: Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and National Mosaic and Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ) developed by NWS and NSSL, respectively. Both provide gridded QPE products that include radar-only, gauge-only and gauge-radar-merged, etc; however, these systems often provide large differences in QPE (in terms of amounts and spatial patterns) due to differences in Z-R selection, vertical profile of reflectivity correction, and gauge interpolation procedures. Determining the appropriate QPE product and quantification of QPE uncertainty is critical for operational applications, including water management decisions and flood warnings. For example, hourly QPE is used to correct radar based rain rates used by the Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) package in the NWS forecast offices for issuance of flash flood warnings. This study will evaluate the performance of MPE and NMQ QPE products using independent gauges, object identification techniques for spatial verification and impact on surface runoff using a distributed hydrologic model. The effort will consist of baseline evaluations of these QPE systems to determine which combination of algorithm features is appropriate as well as investigate new methods for combining the gage and radar data. The Russian River Basin in California is used to demonstrate the comparison methodology with data collected from several rainfall events in March 2012.

Integrated SeismoGeodetic Systsem with High-Resolution, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observation For Earthquake Early Warning Application.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passmore, P. R.; Jackson, M.; Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Davidson, P.

2014-12-01

The key requirements for Earthquake Early Warning and other Rapid Event Notification Systems are: Quick delivery of digital data from a field station to the acquisition and processing center; Data integrity for real-time earthquake notification in order to provide warning prior to significant ground shaking in the given target area. These two requirements are met in the recently developed Trimble SG160-09 SeismoGeodetic System, which integrates both GNSS and acceleration measurements using the Kalman filter algorithm to create a new high-rate (200 sps), real-time displacement with sufficient accuracy and very low latency for rapid delivery of the acquired data to a processing center. The data acquisition algorithm in the SG160-09 System provides output of both acceleration and displacement digital data with 0.2 sec delay. This is a significant reduction in the time interval required for real-time transmission compared to data delivery algorithms available in digitizers currently used in other Earthquake Early Warning networks. Both acceleration and displacement data are recorded and transmitted to the processing site in a specially developed Multiplexed Recording Format (MRF) that minimizes the bandwidth required for real-time data transmission. In addition, a built in algorithm calculates the τc and Pd once the event is declared. The SG160-09 System keeps track of what data has not been acknowledged and re-transmits the data giving priority to current data. Modified REF TEK Protocol Daemon (RTPD) receives the digital data and acknowledges data received without error. It forwards this "good" data to processing clients of various real-time data processing software including Earthworm and SeisComP3. The processing clients cache packets when a data gap occurs due to a dropped packet or network outage. The cache packet time is settable, but should not exceed 0.5 sec in the Earthquake Early Warning network configuration. The rapid data transmission algorithm was tested with different communication media, including Internet, DSL, Wi-Fi, GPRS, etc. The test results show that the data latency via most communication media do not exceed 0.5 sec nominal from a first sample in the data packet. Detailed acquisition algorithm and results of data transmission via different communication media are presented.

New Approaches to Capture High Frequency Agricultural Dynamics in Africa through Mobile Phones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, T. P.; Attari, S.; Plale, B. A.; Caylor, K. K.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.

2015-12-01

Crop failure early warning systems relying on remote sensing constitute a new critical resource to assess areas where food shortages may arise, but there is a disconnect between the patterns of crop production on the ground and the environmental and decision-making dynamics that led to a particular crop production outcome. In Africa many governments use mid-growing season household surveys to get an on-the-ground assessment of current agricultural conditions. But these efforts are cost prohibitive over large scales and only offer a one-time snapshot at a particular time point. They also rely on farmers to recall past decisions and farmer recall may be imperfect when answering retrospectively on a decision made several months back (e.g. quantity of seed planted). We introduce a novel mobile-phone based approach to acquire information from farmers over large spatial extents, at high frequency at relatively low-cost compared to household survey approaches. This system makes compromises in number of questions which can feasibly be asked of a respondent (compared to household interviews), but the benefit of capturing weekly data from farmers is very exciting. We present data gathered from farmers in Kenya and Zambia to understand key dimensions of agricultural decision making such as choice of seed variety/planting date, frequency and timing of weeding/fertilizing and coping strategies such as pursuing off-farm labor. A particularly novel aspect of this work is reporting from farmers of what their expectation of end-season harvest will be on a week-by-week basis. Farmer's themselves can serve as sentinels of crop failure in this system. And farmers responses to drought are as much driven by their expectations of looming crop failure that may be different from that gleaned from remote sensing based assessment. This work is one piece of a larger design to link farmers to high-density meteorological data in Africa as an additional tool to improve crop failure early warning systems and understand adaptation to climate variability.

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

PubMed

Basher, Reid

2006-08-15

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

Advanced text and video analytics for proactive decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, Elizabeth K.; Turek, Matt; Tunison, Paul; Porter, Reed; Thomas, Steve; Gintautas, Vadas; Shargo, Peter; Lin, Jessica; Li, Qingzhe; Gao, Yifeng; Li, Xiaosheng; Mittu, Ranjeev; Rosé, Carolyn Penstein; Maki, Keith; Bogart, Chris; Choudhari, Samrihdi Shree

2017-05-01

Today's warfighters operate in a highly dynamic and uncertain world, and face many competing demands. Asymmetric warfare and the new focus on small, agile forces has altered the framework by which time critical information is digested and acted upon by decision makers. Finding and integrating decision-relevant information is increasingly difficult in data-dense environments. In this new information environment, agile data algorithms, machine learning software, and threat alert mechanisms must be developed to automatically create alerts and drive quick response. Yet these advanced technologies must be balanced with awareness of the underlying context to accurately interpret machine-processed indicators and warnings and recommendations. One promising approach to this challenge brings together information retrieval strategies from text, video, and imagery. In this paper, we describe a technology demonstration that represents two years of tri-service research seeking to meld text and video for enhanced content awareness. The demonstration used multisource data to find an intelligence solution to a problem using a common dataset. Three technology highlights from this effort include 1) Incorporation of external sources of context into imagery normalcy modeling and anomaly detection capabilities, 2) Automated discovery and monitoring of targeted users from social media text, regardless of language, and 3) The concurrent use of text and imagery to characterize behaviour using the concept of kinematic and text motifs to detect novel and anomalous patterns. Our demonstration provided a technology baseline for exploiting heterogeneous data sources to deliver timely and accurate synopses of data that contribute to a dynamic and comprehensive worldview.

A Decision Support System for Tele-Monitoring COPD-Related Worrisome Events.

PubMed

Merone, Mario; Pedone, Claudio; Capasso, Giuseppe; Incalzi, Raffaele Antonelli; Soda, Paolo

2017-03-01

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a preventable, treatable, and slowly progressive disease, whose course is aggravated by a periodic worsening of symptoms and lung function lasting for several days. The development of home telemonitoring systems has made possible to collect symptoms and physiological data in electronic records, boosting the development of decision support systems (DSSs). Current DSSs work with physiological measurements collected by means of several measuring and communication devices as well as with symptoms gathered by questionnaires submitted to COPD subjects. However, this contrasts with the advices provided by the World Health Organization and the Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease that recommend to avoid invasive or complex daily measurements. For these reasons this manuscript presents a DSS detecting the onset of worrisome events in COPD subjects. It uses the hearth rate and the oxygen saturation, which can be collected via a pulse oximeter. The DSS consists in a binary finite state machine, whose training stage allows a subject specific personalization of the predictive model, triggering warnings, and alarms as the health status evolves over time. The experiments on data collected from 22 COPD patients tele-monitored at home for six months show that the system recognition performance is better than the one achieved by medical experts. Furthermore, the support offered by the system in the decision-making process allows to increase the agreement between the specialists, largely impacting the recognition of the worrisome events.

Seismic instrumentation plan for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelen, Weston A.

2014-01-01

The installation of new seismic stations is only the first part of building a volcanic early warning capability for seismicity in the State of Hawaii. Additional personnel will likely be required to study the volcanic processes at work under each volcano, analyze the current seismic activity at a level sufficient for early warning, build new tools for monitoring, maintain seismic computing resources, and maintain the new seismic stations.

Automatic Traffic Advisory and Resolution Service (ATARS) Multi-Site Algorithms. Revision 1,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-10-01

Summary Concept Description The Automatic Traffic Advisory and Resolution Service is a ground based collision avoidance system to be implemented in the...capability. A ground based computer processes the data and continuously provides proximity warning information and, when necessary, resolution advisories to...of ground- based air traffic control which provides proximity warning and separation services to uncontrolled aircraft in a given region of airspace. it

Potentiation of the early visual response to learned danger signals in adults and adolescents

PubMed Central

Howsley, Philippa; Jordan, Jeff; Johnston, Pat

2015-01-01

The reinforcing effects of aversive outcomes on avoidance behaviour are well established. However, their influence on perceptual processes is less well explored, especially during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Using electroencephalography, we examined whether learning to actively or passively avoid harm can modulate early visual responses in adolescents and adults. The task included two avoidance conditions, active and passive, where two different warning stimuli predicted the imminent, but avoidable, presentation of an aversive tone. To avoid the aversive outcome, participants had to learn to emit an action (active avoidance) for one of the warning stimuli and omit an action for the other (passive avoidance). Both adults and adolescents performed the task with a high degree of accuracy. For both adolescents and adults, increased N170 event-related potential amplitudes were found for both the active and the passive warning stimuli compared with control conditions. Moreover, the potentiation of the N170 to the warning stimuli was stable and long lasting. Developmental differences were also observed; adolescents showed greater potentiation of the N170 component to danger signals. These findings demonstrate, for the first time, that learned danger signals in an instrumental avoidance task can influence early visual sensory processes in both adults and adolescents. PMID:24652856

The Moderating Effects of Self-Esteem and Self-Efficacy on Responses to Graphic Health Warnings on Cigarette Packages: A Comparison of Smokers and Nonsmokers.

PubMed

Chun, Seungwoo; Park, Joon Woo; Heflick, Nathan; Lee, Seon Min; Kim, Daejin; Kwon, Kyenghee

2018-08-01

Do graphic pictorial health warnings (GPHWs) on cigarette packaging work better for some people than others? According to the Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM), fear appeals should heighten positive change only if a person believes he or she is capable of change (i.e., self-efficacy). We exposed 242 smokers and 241 nonsmokers (aged 18-29) in the Republic of Korea to either a GPHW or a text-only warning in a between-subjects experiment. Results indicated that the GPHW increased intentions and motivations to quit smoking (for smokers) and intentions and motivations to not start smoking (for nonsmokers). However, these effects were moderated by self-efficacy related to quitting or not starting smoking. For smokers, a GPHW was especially effective in increasing desires and intentions to quit for people high in self-efficacy and high in self-esteem. However, for nonsmokers, a GPHW was effective only when self-efficacy was high, regardless of self-esteem level. For smokers and nonsmokers, results were mediated by heightened perceived health estimation. Implications for understanding the effectiveness of warning labels on cigarettes, for the introduction of GPHWs in the Republic of Korea, and for the Extended Parallel Process Model, are discussed.

Superfund record of decision (EPA Region 9): Aircraft Control and Warning Site, Mather Air Force Base, CA, December 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This decision document, a Record of Decision (ROD), presents the selected remedial action for the AC W Site, Installation Restoration Program (IRP) Site 12, at Mather Air Force Base (AFB), Sacramento County, California. Reports indicate that from 1958 to 1966 waste solvents and transformer oils were disposed in a waste disposal pipe in the AC W area. Investigations conducted as part of the Air Force Installation Restoration Program (IRP) failed to locate the waste disposal pipe but did find trichloroethylene (TCE) contamination in the shallow water bearing zone (SWBZ) in the AC W area. The SWBZ is classified as amore » potential source of drinking water by the State of California, although it is not currently used in the AC W area. The selected remedy will address the potential threat to human health posed by TCE contamination in groundwater (primarily in the SWBZ).« less

Proposal of a Clinical Decision Tree Algorithm Using Factors Associated with Severe Dengue Infection.

PubMed

Tamibmaniam, Jayashamani; Hussin, Narwani; Cheah, Wee Kooi; Ng, Kee Sing; Muninathan, Prema

2016-01-01

WHO's new classification in 2009: dengue with or without warning signs and severe dengue, has necessitated large numbers of admissions to hospitals of dengue patients which in turn has been imposing a huge economical and physical burden on many hospitals around the globe, particularly South East Asia and Malaysia where the disease has seen a rapid surge in numbers in recent years. Lack of a simple tool to differentiate mild from life threatening infection has led to unnecessary hospitalization of dengue patients. We conducted a single-centre, retrospective study involving serologically confirmed dengue fever patients, admitted in a single ward, in Hospital Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Data was collected for 4 months from February to May 2014. Socio demography, co-morbidity, days of illness before admission, symptoms, warning signs, vital signs and laboratory result were all recorded. Descriptive statistics was tabulated and simple and multiple logistic regression analysis was done to determine significant risk factors associated with severe dengue. 657 patients with confirmed dengue were analysed, of which 59 (9.0%) had severe dengue. Overall, the commonest warning sign were vomiting (36.1%) and abdominal pain (32.1%). Previous co-morbid, vomiting, diarrhoea, pleural effusion, low systolic blood pressure, high haematocrit, low albumin and high urea were found as significant risk factors for severe dengue using simple logistic regression. However the significant risk factors for severe dengue with multiple logistic regressions were only vomiting, pleural effusion, and low systolic blood pressure. Using those 3 risk factors, we plotted an algorithm for predicting severe dengue. When compared to the classification of severe dengue based on the WHO criteria, the decision tree algorithm had a sensitivity of 0.81, specificity of 0.54, positive predictive value of 0.16 and negative predictive of 0.96. The decision tree algorithm proposed in this study showed high sensitivity and NPV in predicting patients with severe dengue that may warrant admission. This tool upon further validation study can be used to help clinicians decide on further managing a patient upon first encounter. It also will have a substantial impact on health resources as low risk patients can be managed as outpatients hence reserving the scarce hospital beds and medical resources for other patients in need.

Examining the Pilot and Controller Performance Data When in a Free Flight with Weather Phenomenon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nituen, Celestine A.; Lozito, Sandra C. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The present study investigated effects of weather related factors on the performance of pilots under free flight. A weather scenario was defined by a combination of precipitation factors (light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain or snow), visibility (1,4,8 miles), wind conditions (light, medium, or heavy), cloud ceiling (800ft. below, 1800ft above, and 4000ft horizontal). The performance of the aircraft self-separation was evaluated in terms of detection accuracy and detection times for student- and commercial (expert) pilots. Overall, the results obtained from a behavioral analysis showed that in general, the ability to recognize intruder aircraft conflict incidents, followed by the ability to acquire the spatial location of the intruder aircraft relative to ownership aircraft were judged to be the major cognitive tasks as perceived by the participants during self-separation. Further, the participants rarely used cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) during conflict management related to aircraft separation, but used CDTI highly during decision-making tasks. In all weather scenarios, there were remarkable differences between expert and student pilots in detection times. In summary, weather scenarios were observed to affect intruder aircraft detection performance accuracies. There was interaction effects between weather Scenario-1 and Scenario-2 for climbing task data generated by both expert- and student- pilots at high traffic density. Scenario-3 weather condition provided an opportunity for poor detection accuracy as well as detection time increase. This may be attributed to low visibility. The intruder aircraft detection times were not affected by the weather conditions during climbing and descending tasks. The decision of pilots to fly into certain weather condition was dependent in part on the warning distance to the location of the weather. When pilots were warned of the weather conditions, they were more likely to fly their aircraft into it, but mostly when the warning was not close to the weather location.

Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore.

PubMed

Shi, Yuan; Liu, Xu; Kok, Suet-Yheng; Rajarethinam, Jayanthi; Liang, Shaohong; Yap, Grace; Chong, Chee-Seng; Lee, Kim-Sung; Tan, Sharon S Y; Chin, Christopher Kuan Yew; Lo, Andrew; Kong, Waiming; Ng, Lee Ching; Cook, Alex R

2016-09-01

With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore's dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore. Environ Health Perspect 124:1369-1375; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509981.

Pilot evaluation of a method to assess prescribers' information processing of medication alerts.

PubMed

Russ, Alissa L; Melton, Brittany L; Daggy, Joanne K; Saleem, Jason J

2017-02-01

Prescribers commonly receive alerts during medication ordering. Prescribers work in a complex, time-pressured environment; to enhance the effectiveness of safety alerts, the effort needed to cognitively process these alerts should be minimized. Methods to evaluate the extent to which computerized alerts support prescribers' information processing are lacking. To develop a methodological protocol to assess the extent to which alerts support prescribers' information processing at-a-glance; specifically, the incorporation of information into their working memory. We hypothesized that the method would be feasible and that we would be able to detect a significant difference in prescribers' information processing with a revised alert display that incorporates warning design guidelines compared to the original alert display. A counterbalanced, within-subject study was conducted with 20 prescribers in a human-computer interaction laboratory. We tested a single alert that was displayed in two different ways. Prescribers were informed that an alert would appear for 10s. After the alert was shown, a white screen was displayed, and prescribers were asked to verbally describe what they saw; indicate how many total warnings; and describe anything else they remembered about the alert. We measured information processing via the accuracy of prescribers' free recall and their ability to identify that three warning messages were present. Two analysts independently evaluated participants' responses against a comprehensive catalog of alert elements and then discussed discrepancies until reaching consensus. This feasibility study demonstrated that the method seemed to be effective for evaluating prescribers' information processing of medication alert displays. With this method, we were able to detect significant differences in prescribers' recall of alert information. The proportion of total data elements that prescribers were able to accurately recall was significantly greater for the revised versus original alert display (p=0.006). With the revised display, more prescribers accurately reported that three warnings were shown (p=0.002). The methodological protocol was feasible for evaluating the alert display and yielded important findings on prescribers' information processing. Study methods supplement traditional usability evaluation methods and may be useful for evaluating information processing of other healthcare technologies. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Novel approaches to helicopter obstacle warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, Christian; Samuelis, Christian; Wegner, Matthias; Münsterer, Thomas; Rumpf, Thomas; Schwartz, Ingo

2006-05-01

EADS Germany is the world market leader in commercial Helicopter Laser Radar (HELLAS) Obstacle Warning Systems. The HELLAS-Warning System has been introduced into the market in 2000, is in service at German Border Control (Bundespolizei) and Royal Thai Airforce and is successfully evaluated by the Foreign Comparative Test Program (FCT) of the USSOCOM. Currently the successor system HELLAS-Awareness is in development. It will have extended sensor performance, enhanced realtime data processing capabilities and advanced HMI features. We will give an outline of the new sensor unit concerning detection technology and helicopter integration aspects. The system provides a widespread field of view with additional dynamic line of sight steering and a large detection range in combination with a high frame rate of 3Hz. The workflow of the data processing will be presented with focus on novel filter techniques and obstacle classification methods. As commonly known the former are indispensable due to unavoidable statistical measuring errors and solarisation. The amount of information in the filtered raw data is further reduced by ground segmentation. The remaining raised objects are extracted and classified in several stages into different obstacle classes. We will show the prioritization function which orders the obstacles concerning to their threat potential to the helicopter taking into account the actual flight dynamics. The priority of an object determines the display and provision of warnings to the pilot. Possible HMI representation includes video or FLIR overlay on multifunction displays, audio warnings and visualization of information on helmet mounted displays and digital maps. Different concepts will be presented.

Graphic Health Warnings on Cigarette Packs: How Long Before the Effects on Adolescents Wear Out?

PubMed

White, Victoria; Bariola, Emily; Faulkner, Agatha; Coomber, Kerri; Wakefield, Melanie

2015-07-01

To examine the long-term impact of graphic health-warning labels (GHWL) on adolescents' cognitive processing of warning labels and cigarette pack perceptions. Cross-sectional school-based surveys of students aged 13-17 years residing in urban centers, conducted prior to GHWL introduction (2005) and 6 months (2006), 2 years (2008), and 5 years (2011) post-GHWL introduction. Students who had seen a cigarette pack in the previous 6 months or in 2006, who had seen GHWL were included in analyses (2005 n = 2,560; 2006 n = 1,306; 2008 n = 2,303; 2011 n = 2,716). Smoking stage, reported exposure to cigarette packs, cognitive processing of GHWL, and positive and negative perceptions of pack image were assessed. While cognitive processing of GHWL in 2006 and 2008 was greater than 2005 (p < .01), by 2011 scores had returned to 2005 levels. This pattern of change was consistent across smoking status groups. Pack image perceptions became more negative over time among all students, irrespective of smoking experience. While positive pack image ratings were lower in all subsequent years than 2005, the 2008 rating was higher than 2006 (p < .01). A significant interaction between survey time and smoking status (p < .01) showed that significant increases in positive pack ratings after 2006 only occurred among current and experimental smokers. When novel, GHWL on cigarette packs increase cognitive processing among adolescents. However, this effect diminishes after 5 years, suggesting more regular message refreshment is needed. Australia's adoption of plain packaging is intended to undermine positive pack appeal and increase warning salience. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Strengthening Agricultural Decisions in Countries at Risk of Food Insecurity: The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker-Reshef, I.; Barker, B.; McGaughey, K.; Humber, M. L.; Sanchez, A.; Justice, C. O.; Rembold, F.; Verdin, J. P.

2016-12-01

Timely, reliable information on crop conditions, and prospects at the subnational scale, is critical for making informed policy and agricultural decisions for ensuring food security, particularly for the most vulnerable countries. However, such information is often incomplete or lacking. As such, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning (CM for EW) was developed with the goal to reduce uncertainty and strengthen decision support by providing actionable information on a monthly basis to national, regional and global food security agencies through timely consensus assessments of crop conditions. This information is especially critical in recent years, given the extreme weather conditions impacting food supplies including the most recent El Nino event. This initiative brings together the main international food security monitoring agencies and organizations to develop monthly crop assessments based on satellite observations, meteorological information, field observations and ground reports, which reflect an international consensus. This activity grew out of the successful Crop Monitor for the G20 Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), which provides operational monthly crop assessments of the main producing countries of the world. The CM for EW was launched in February 2016 and has already become a trusted source of information internationally and regionally. Its assessments have been featured in a large number of news articles, reports, and press releases, including a joint statement by the USAID's FEWS NET, UN World Food Program, European Commission Joint Research Center, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organziation, on the devastating impacts of the southern African drought due to El Nino. One of the main priorities for this activity going forward is to expand its partnership with regional and national monitoring agencies, and strengthen capacity for national crop condition assessments.

Air Parity: Re-Discovering Contested Air Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

these days repeated in attack numbers and flying conditions, but the phase would end with bad weather – from 19 to 23 August dense cloud cover would...Command HQ acted as the central processor of information from the radar warning system.149 It did not make any tactical decisions, which...hours to spare[.] My HQ , for example, provided a daily working party of 53 officers and men for 3 ½ months.”292 The Army would also assist the ground

Docs are buying in. Faltering hospitals are finding new life with physician-owners, but they may face challenges getting their facilities up to speed.

PubMed

Romano, Michael

2005-01-10

More physicians are stepping forward to buy their own hospitals, often aging or faltering facilities that need some special attention. Kamlesh Gosai, left, led a group that helped keep open Brownsville (Pa.) General Hospital, saving 250 jobs. Often such doc investors are confident they'll suceed in managing their fellow physicians. But others warn they'll face some tough decisions.

The Post-Cold War Force-Sizing Debate: Paradigms, Metaphors, and Disconnects

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

Lynn D . Pullen, John Y. Schrader, and Michael D . Swaine, A New Strategy and Fewer Forces: The Pacifu: Dimension. RAND, R -4089/2- USDP, 1992. 80...and Forces, Vol. II. RAND, N-3098/2-DAG, October 1990. Wohlstetter, Roberta, Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Stan- ford: Stanford University Press, 1962. RAN D / R -4243-JS ...The Post-Cold War Force-Sizing Debate Paradigms, Metaphors, and Disconnects James A. Winnefeld RAN D I NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Emotional salience of the image component facilitates recall of the text of cigarette warning labels.

PubMed

Wang, An-Li; Shi, Zhenhao; Fairchild, Victoria P; Aronowitz, Catherine A; Langleben, Daniel D

2018-04-26

Graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packages, that combine textual warnings with emotionally salient images depicting the adverse health consequences of smoking, have been adopted in most European countries. In the US, the courts deemed the evidence justifying the inclusion of emotionally salient images in GWLs insufficient and put the implementation on hold. We conducted a controlled experimental study examining the effect of emotional salience of GWL's images on the recall of their text component. Seventy-three non-treatment-seeking daily smokers received cigarette packs carrying GWLs for a period of 4 weeks. Participants were randomly assigned to receive packs with GWLs previously rated as eliciting high or low level of emotional reaction (ER). The two conditions differed in respect to images but used the same textual warning statements. Participants' recognition of GWL images and statements were tested separately at baseline and again after the 4-week repetitive exposure. Textual warning statements were recognized more accurately when paired with high ER images than when paired with low ER images, both at baseline and after daily exposure to GWLs over a 4-week period. The results suggest that emotional salience of GWLs facilitates cognitive processing of the textual warnings, resulting in better remembering of the information about the health hazards of smoking. Thus, high emotional salience of the pictorial component of GWLs is essential for their overall effectiveness.

Disparagement of health warning labels on cigarette packages and cessation attempts: results from four countries.

PubMed

Osman, Amira; Thrasher, James F; Yong, Hua-Hie; Arillo-Santillán, Edna; Hammond, David

2017-12-01

Health warning labels (HWLs) on cigarette packs that use strong fear appeals may evoke defensive responses including acts of disparaging the warnings. Whether warning disparagement undermines HWL effectiveness remains unclear. We assessed correlates of one type of HWL disparagement and its association with subsequent cessation attempts. Longitudinal data (2012-14) on adult smokers from Australia, Canada, Mexico and the United States (US) were analyzed. HWL disparagement was assessed as the frequency of making fun of HWLs in the past month. Using Generalized Estimating Equation models we estimated correlates of HWL disparagement and whether HWL disparagement predicted subsequent cessation attempts. In each country, across all waves, 24-31% of smokers reported making fun of the warnings at least once in the past month. More frequent disparagement was found among males, younger participants, those with higher education and greater addiction, and those who recently attempted to quit. Attention to, avoidance of and talking to others about HWLs were all positively associated with HWL disparagement. In all countries, except the US, this type of HWL disparagement was an independent predictor of subsequent cessation attempts. HWL disparagement among smokers may indicate greater warning relevance and processing and does not result in counterproductive effects on cessation efforts. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Petitioning the FDA to Improve Pharmaceutical, Device and Public Health Safety by Ordinary Citizens: A Descriptive Analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Y. Tony; Cheng, Xi; Bian, John; Bennett, Charles L.

2016-01-01

The United States Constitution protects the right of citizens to petition the government for “a redress of grievances.” This right has important implications for citizens desiring to advance the public health by petitioning administrative agencies, such as the Food and Drug Administration, to take safety actions. We examined a total of 1,915 petitions filed between 2001 and 2013 to investigate the outcomes of citizen petitions that address public health concerns. We found that most petitions were filed by manufacturers against other manufacturers. Only 346 (18%) of all petitions were submitted by individuals and non-profit organizations, and 178 (87.3%) of these petitions with a final response were denied. On average, these petitions required 2.85 years for a final agency decision, and many decisions remain pending 10–13 years after their initial submission. The great majority of the approved requests included some form of risk communication, such as labeling changes, boxed warnings or placement of a drug into a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy. As a policy instrument to improve the safety of medical and food products, the citizen petition process requires sophisticated legal and scientific expertise, and may not represent a viable route for ordinary citizens to petition the FDA to “redress grievances.” PMID:27171162

VineSens: An Eco-Smart Decision-Support Viticulture System

PubMed Central

Pérez-Expósito, Josman P.; Fernández-Caramés, Tiago M.; Fraga-Lamas, Paula; Castedo, Luis

2017-01-01

This article presents VineSens, a hardware and software platform for supporting the decision-making of the vine grower. VineSens is based on a wireless sensor network system composed by autonomous and self-powered nodes that are deployed throughout a vineyard. Such nodes include sensors that allow us to obtain detailed knowledge on different viticulture processes. Thanks to the use of epidemiological models, VineSens is able to propose a custom control plan to prevent diseases like one of the most feared by vine growers: downy mildew. VineSens generates alerts that warn farmers about the measures that have to be taken and stores the historical weather data collected from different spots of the vineyard. Such data can then be accessed through a user-friendly web-based interface that can be accessed through the Internet by using desktop or mobile devices. VineSens was deployed at the beginning in 2016 in a vineyard in the Ribeira Sacra area (Galicia, Spain) and, since then, its hardware and software have been tested to prevent the development of downy mildew, showing during its first season that the system can led to substantial savings, to decrease the amount of phytosanitary products applied, and, as a consequence, to obtain a more ecologically sustainable and healthy wine. PMID:28245619

Physician-assisted suicide of patients with dementia. A medical ethical analysis with a special focus on patient autonomy.

PubMed

Gather, Jakov; Vollmann, Jochen

2013-01-01

For many years there has been a controversial international debate on physician-assisted suicide (PAS). While proponents of PAS regularly refer to the unbearable suffering and the right of self-determination of incurably ill patients, critics often warn about the diverse risks of abuse. In our article, we aim to present ethical arguments for and against PAS for patients in an early stage of dementia. Our focus shall be on ethical questions of autonomy, conceptual and empirical findings on competence and the assessment of mental capacity to make health care decisions. While the capacity to make health care decisions represents an ethically significant precondition for PAS, it becomes more and more impaired in the course of the dementia process. We present conditions that should be met in order to ethically justify PAS for patients with dementia. From both a psychiatric and an ethical perspective, a thorough differential diagnosis and an adequate medical and psychosocial support for patients with dementia considering PAS and their relatives should be guaranteed. If, after due deliberation, the patient still wishes assistance with suicide, a transparent and documented assessment of competence should be conducted by a professional psychiatrist. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

VineSens: An Eco-Smart Decision-Support Viticulture System.

PubMed

Pérez-Expósito, Josman P; Fernández-Caramés, Tiago M; Fraga-Lamas, Paula; Castedo, Luis

2017-02-25

This article presents VineSens, a hardware and software platform for supporting the decision-making of the vine grower. VineSens is based on a wireless sensor network system composed by autonomous and self-powered nodes that are deployed throughout a vineyard. Such nodes include sensors that allow us to obtain detailed knowledge on different viticulture processes. Thanks to the use of epidemiological models, VineSens is able to propose a custom control plan to prevent diseases like one of the most feared by vine growers: downy mildew. VineSens generates alerts that warn farmers about the measures that have to be taken and stores the historical weather data collected from different spots of the vineyard. Such data can then be accessed through a user-friendly web-based interface that can be accessed through the Internet by using desktop or mobile devices. VineSens was deployed at the beginning in 2016 in a vineyard in the Ribeira Sacra area (Galicia, Spain) and, since then, its hardware and software have been tested to prevent the development of downy mildew, showing during its first season that the system can led to substantial savings, to decrease the amount of phytosanitary products applied, and, as a consequence, to obtain a more ecologically sustainable and healthy wine.

Petitioning the FDA to Improve Pharmaceutical, Device and Public Health Safety by Ordinary Citizens: A Descriptive Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Brian K; Yang, Y Tony; Cheng, Xi; Bian, John; Bennett, Charles L

2016-01-01

The United States Constitution protects the right of citizens to petition the government for "a redress of grievances." This right has important implications for citizens desiring to advance the public health by petitioning administrative agencies, such as the Food and Drug Administration, to take safety actions. We examined a total of 1,915 petitions filed between 2001 and 2013 to investigate the outcomes of citizen petitions that address public health concerns. We found that most petitions were filed by manufacturers against other manufacturers. Only 346 (18%) of all petitions were submitted by individuals and non-profit organizations, and 178 (87.3%) of these petitions with a final response were denied. On average, these petitions required 2.85 years for a final agency decision, and many decisions remain pending 10-13 years after their initial submission. The great majority of the approved requests included some form of risk communication, such as labeling changes, boxed warnings or placement of a drug into a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy. As a policy instrument to improve the safety of medical and food products, the citizen petition process requires sophisticated legal and scientific expertise, and may not represent a viable route for ordinary citizens to petition the FDA to "redress grievances."

Reducing process delays for real-time earthquake parameter estimation - An application of KD tree to large databases for Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Lucy; Andrews, Jennifer; Heaton, Thomas

2018-05-01

Earthquake parameter estimations using nearest neighbor searching among a large database of observations can lead to reliable prediction results. However, in the real-time application of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, the accurate prediction using a large database is penalized by a significant delay in the processing time. We propose to use a multidimensional binary search tree (KD tree) data structure to organize large seismic databases to reduce the processing time in nearest neighbor search for predictions. We evaluated the performance of KD tree on the Gutenberg Algorithm, a database-searching algorithm for EEW. We constructed an offline test to predict peak ground motions using a database with feature sets of waveform filter-bank characteristics, and compare the results with the observed seismic parameters. We concluded that large database provides more accurate predictions of the ground motion information, such as peak ground acceleration, velocity, and displacement (PGA, PGV, PGD), than source parameters, such as hypocenter distance. Application of the KD tree search to organize the database reduced the average searching process by 85% time cost of the exhaustive method, allowing the method to be feasible for real-time implementation. The algorithm is straightforward and the results will reduce the overall time of warning delivery for EEW.

Human Factors In the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Watch Floor

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

Report 3. DATES COVERED (From-To) 01-10-2010 – 30-03-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Human Factors in the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Watch Floor...between users’ information requirements and interpretation process and the JTWC’s forecast fields. The language of TCCOR definitions provides one (of...direction error is less than 90°, predicting a position 10 nautical miles (nmi) too close to the current position produces a lower FTE than

Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

PubMed

Armenteras, Dolors; Gibbes, Cerian; Anaya, Jesús A; Dávalos, Liliana M

2017-06-01

Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Tobacco smoking: how far do the legislative control measures address the problem?

PubMed

Jiloha, Ram C

2012-01-01

India ratified the WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in February 2004 and enacted legislation called, "Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products (Prohibition of Advertisement and Regulation of Trade and Commerce, Production, Supply and Distribution) Act 2003" which specifically called for an end to direct and indirect form of tobacco advertisements. Under its Section 7, the Act also stipulates depiction of pictorial health warnings on all tobacco products. Since the enactment of the legislation, the tobacco companies are prohibited from any kind of advertisement. However, studies show that the instances of showing smoking in movies have increased significantly to 89% after the implementation of the Act. The brand placement has been also increased nearly three folds. Association of tobacco with glamour and style has also been established. Seventy-five percent of movies have showed the lead character smoking tobacco. The instances of females consuming tobacco in movies have also increased, pointing toward a specific market expansion strategy by tobacco companies using movies as a vehicle. General public does not feel that banning tobacco scenes in the movie will affect their decision to watch movies or the quality of movies. It was found that favorable images through mass media created a considerable influence on youngsters and increased their receptivity to tobacco smoking. Pictorial warning on tobacco products is yet to start. Tobacco industry's opposition to tobacco health warnings is understandable as it will adversely affect their business. However, policymakers should not evade their responsibility to mandate strong health warnings on all tobacco product packs. Legal action against offenders, investigation of the relationship and financial irregularities between film-makers and tobacco industry, and recall of the movies showing tobacco brand are the important measures recommended.

Tobacco smoking: How far do the legislative control measures address the problem?

PubMed Central

Jiloha, Ram C.

2012-01-01

India ratified the WHO's Framework Convention on Tobacco Control in February 2004 and enacted legislation called, “Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products (Prohibition of Advertisement and Regulation of Trade and Commerce, Production, Supply and Distribution) Act 2003” which specifically called for an end to direct and indirect form of tobacco advertisements. Under its Section 7, the Act also stipulates depiction of pictorial health warnings on all tobacco products. Since the enactment of the legislation, the tobacco companies are prohibited from any kind of advertisement. However, studies show that the instances of showing smoking in movies have increased significantly to 89% after the implementation of the Act. The brand placement has been also increased nearly three folds. Association of tobacco with glamour and style has also been established. Seventy-five percent of movies have showed the lead character smoking tobacco. The instances of females consuming tobacco in movies have also increased, pointing toward a specific market expansion strategy by tobacco companies using movies as a vehicle. General public does not feel that banning tobacco scenes in the movie will affect their decision to watch movies or the quality of movies. It was found that favorable images through mass media created a considerable influence on youngsters and increased their receptivity to tobacco smoking. Pictorial warning on tobacco products is yet to start. Tobacco industry's opposition to tobacco health warnings is understandable as it will adversely affect their business. However, policymakers should not evade their responsibility to mandate strong health warnings on all tobacco product packs. Legal action against offenders, investigation of the relationship and financial irregularities between film-makers and tobacco industry, and recall of the movies showing tobacco brand are the important measures recommended. PMID:22556442

Meteorological tsunamis along the U.S. coastline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilibic, I.; Monserrat, S.; Amores, A.; Dadic, V.; Fine, I.; Horvath, K.; Ivankovic, D.; Marcos, M.; Mihanovic, H.; Pasquet, S.; Rabinovich, A. B.; Sepic, J.; Strelec Mahovic, N.; Whitmore, P.

2012-04-01

Meteotsunamis, or meteorological tsunamis, are atmospherically induced ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band that are found to affect coasts in a destructive way in a number of places in the World Ocean, including the U.S. coastline. The Boothbay Harbor, Maine, in October 2008 and Daytona Beach, Florida, in July 1992 were hit by several meters high waves appearing from "nowhere", and a preliminary assessment pointed to the atmosphere as a possible source for the events. As a need for in-depth analyses and proper qualification of these and other events emerged, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) decided to fund the research, currently carried out within the TMEWS project (Towards a MEteotsunami Warning System along the U.S. coastline). The project structure, planned research activities and first results will be presented here. The first objective of the project is creation of a list of potential meteotsunami events, from catalogues, news and high-resolution sea level data, and their proper assessment with regards to the source, generation and dynamics. The assessment will be based on the research of the various types of ocean (tide gauges, buoys), atmospheric (ground stations, buoys, vertical soundings, reanalyses) and remote sensing (satellites) data and products, supported by the atmospheric and ocean modelling efforts. Based on the earned knowledge, the basis for a meteotsunami warning system, i.e. observational systems and communication needs for early detection of a meteotsunami, will be defined. Finally, meteotsunami warning protocols, procedures and decision matrix will be developed, and tested on historical meteotsunami events. These deliverables are expected also to boost meteotsunami research in other parts of the World Ocean, and to contribute to the creation of an efficient meteotsunami warning systems in different regions of interest, such as Mediterranean Sea, western Japan, Western Australia or other.

A Plan to Develop a Red Tide Warning System for Seawater Desalination Process Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Tae Woo; Yun, Hong Sik

2017-04-01

The holt of the seawater desalination process for fifty five days due to the eight-month long red tide in 2008 in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, had lost about 10 billion KRW. The POSCO Seawater Desalination facility, located in Gwangyang Bay Area in the Southern Sea, has produced 30,000 tons of fresh water per day since 2014. Since there has been an incident of red time in the area for three months in August, 2012, it is necessary to establish a warning system for red tide that threatens the stable operation of the seawater desalination facility. A red tide warning system can offer the seawater desalination facility manager customized services on red tide information and potential red tide inflow to the water intake. This study aimed to develop a red tide warning system in Gwangyang Bay Area by combining RS, modeling and monitoring technologies, which provides red tide forecasting information with which to effectively control the seawater desalination process. Using the proposed system, the seawater desalination facility manager can take phased measures to cope with the inflow of red tide. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by a grant(16IFIP-C088924-03) from Industrial Facilities & Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of the Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2014R1A1A2054975).

Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

2015-12-01

Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism and educational video on symptom before the occurrence of landslide may alert the public awareness, especially in the hilly area. The hazard map for the public provides information on where to take shelter, before, when and after natural disaster happened. A simple hazard map is recommended for the community in the aborigines villages in Malaysia.

The flood event of 10-12 November 2013 on the Tiber River basin (central Italy): real-time flood forecasting with uncertainty supporting risk management and decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Barbetta, Silvia; Pandolfo, Claudia; Stelluti, Marco; Moramarco, Tommaso

2014-05-01

The Italian national hydro-meteorological early warning system is composed by 21 regional offices (Functional Centres, CF). Umbria Region (central Italy) CF provides early warning for floods and landslides, real-time monitoring and decision support systems (DSS) for the Civil Defence Authorities when significant events occur. The alert system is based on hydrometric and rainfall thresholds with detailed procedures for the management of critical events in which different roles of authorities and institutions involved are defined. The real-time flood forecasting system is based also on different hydrological and hydraulic forecasting models. Among these, the MISDc rainfall-runoff model ("Modello Idrologico SemiDistribuito in continuo"; Brocca et al., 2011) and the flood routing model named STAFOM-RCM (STAge Forecasting Model-Rating Curve Model; Barbetta et al., 2014) are continuously operative in real-time providing discharge and stage forecasts, respectively, with lead-times up to 24 hours (when quantitative precipitation forecasts are used) in several gauged river sections in the Upper-Middle Tiber River basin. Models results are published in real-time in the open source CF web platform: www.cfumbria.it. MISDc provides discharge and soil moisture forecasts for different sub-basins while STAFOM-RCM provides stage forecasts at hydrometric sections. Moreover, through STAFOM-RCM the uncertainty of the forecast stage hydrograph is provided in terms of 95% Confidence Interval (CI) assessed by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral. In the period 10th-12th November 2013, a severe flood event occurred in Umbria mainly affecting the north-eastern area and causing significant economic damages, but fortunately no casualties. The territory was interested by intense and persistent rainfall; the hydro-meteorological monitoring network recorded locally rainfall depth over 400 mm in 72 hours. In the most affected area, the recorded rainfall depths correspond approximately to a return period of 200 years. Most rivers in Umbria have been involved, exceeding hydrometric thresholds and causing flooding (e.g. Chiascio river). The flood event was continuously monitored at the Umbria Region CF and the possible evolution predicted and assessed on the basis of the model forecasts. The predictions provided by MISDc and STAFOM-RCM were found useful to support real-time decision-making addressed to flood risk management. Moreover, the quantification of the uncertainty affecting the deterministic forecast stages was found consistent with the level of confidence selected and had practical utility corroborating the need of coupling deterministic forecast and 'uncertainty' when the model output is used to support decisions about flood management. REFERENCES Barbetta, S., Moramarco, T., Brocca, L., Franchini, M., Melone, F. (2014). Confidence interval of real-time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM-RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy). Hydrological Processes, 28(3), 729-743. Brocca, L., Melone, F., Moramarco, T. (2011). Distributed rainfall-runoff modelling for flood frequency estimation and flood forecasting. Hydrological Processes, 25 (18), 2801-2813

Genomic misconception: a fresh look at the biosafety of transgenic and conventional crops. A plea for a process agnostic regulation.

PubMed

Ammann, Klaus

2014-01-25

The regulation of genetically engineered crops, in Europe and within the legislation of the Cartagena biosafety protocol is built on false premises: The claim was (and unfortunately still is) that there is a basic difference between conventional and transgenic crops, this despite the fact that this has been rejected on scientifically solid grounds since many years. This contribution collects some major arguments for a fresh look at regulation of transgenic crops, they are in their molecular processes of creation not basically different from conventional crops, which are based in their breeding methods on natural, sometimes enhanced mutation. But the fascination and euphoria of the discoveries in molecular biology and the new perspectives in plant breeding in the sixties and seventies led to the wrong focus on transgenic plants alone. In a collective framing process the initial biosafety debates focused on the novelty of the process of transgenesis. When early debates on the risk assessment merged into legislative decisions, this wrong focus on transgenesis alone seemed uncontested. The process-focused view was also fostered by a conglomerate of concerned scientists and biotechnology companies, both with a vested interest to at least tolerate the rise of the safety threshold to secure research money and to discourage competitors of all kinds. Policy minded people and opponent activists without deeper insight in the molecular science agreed to those efforts without much resistance. It is interesting to realize, that the focus on processes was uncontested by a majority of regulators, this despite of serious early warnings from important authorities in science, mainly of US origin. It is time to change the regulation of genetically modified (GM) crops toward a more science based process-agnostic legislation. Although this article concentrates on the critique of the process-oriented regulation, including some details about the history behind, there should be no misunderstanding that there are other important factors responsible for the failure of this kind of process-oriented regulation, most importantly: the predominance of politics in the decision making processes combined with the lack of serious scientific debates on regulatory matters within the European Union and also in the Cartagena system, the obscure and much too complex decision making structures within the EU, and the active, professional, negative and intimidating role of fundamental opposition against GM crops on all levels dealing with flawed science, often declared as better parallel science published by 'independent' scientists. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing Tsunami Evacuation Plans, Maps, And Procedures: Pilot Project in Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcos, N. P.; Kong, L. S. L.; Arcas, D.; Aliaga, B.; Coetzee, D.; Leonard, J.

2015-12-01

In the End-to-End tsunami warning chain, once a forecast is provided and a warning alert issued, communities must know what to do and where to go. The 'where to' answer would be reliable and practical community-level tsunami evacuation maps. Following the Exercise Pacific Wave 2011, a questionnaire was sent to the 46 Member States of Pacific Tsunami Warning System (PTWS). The results revealed over 42 percent of Member States lacked tsunami mass coastal evacuation plans. Additionally, a significant gap in mapping was exposed as over 55 percent of Member States lacked tsunami evacuation maps, routes, signs and assembly points. Thereby, a significant portion of countries in the Pacific lack appropriate tsunami planning and mapping for their at-risk coastal communities. While a variety of tools exist to establish tsunami inundation areas, these are inconsistent while a methodology has not been developed to assist countries develop tsunami evacuation maps, plans, and procedures. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) and partners is leading a Pilot Project in Honduras demonstrating that globally standardized tools and methodologies can be applied by a country, with minimal tsunami warning and mitigation resources, towards the determination of tsunami inundation areas and subsequently community-owned tsunami evacuation maps and plans for at-risk communities. The Pilot involves a 1- to 2-year long process centered on a series of linked tsunami training workshops on: evacuation planning, evacuation map development, inundation modeling and map creation, tsunami warning & emergency response Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and conducting tsunami exercises (including evacuation). The Pilot's completion is capped with a UNESCO/IOC document so that other countries can replicate the process in their tsunami-prone communities.

Performance assessment in complex individual and team tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, Douglas R.

1992-01-01

Described here is an eclectic, performance based approach to assessing cognitive performance from multiple perspectives. The experience gained from assessing the effects of antihistamines and scenario difficulty on C (exp 2) decision making performance in Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) weapons director (WD) teams can serve as a model for realistic simulations in space operations. Emphasis is placed on the flexibility of measurement, hierarchical organization of measurement levels, data collection from multiple perspectives, and the difficulty of managing large amounts of data.

Determining the Orbit Locations of Turkish Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft Over the Turkish Air Space

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

and Control (AEW&C) Aircraft. AEW&C aircraft has become vital to detect low altitude threats that a ground RADAR cannot detect because of obstacles...HARM). The concern is to cover and detect the threats as far as possible from Turkey within a risk that the commander accepts. The goal is to help...decision makers decide how many AEW aircraft are needed to obtain full coverage. In order to provide optimum results, a Maximal Coverage Location

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Chikkagoudar, Satish

We describe an approach to analyzing trade data which uses clustering to detect similarities across shipping manifest records, classification to evaluate clustering results and categorize new unseen shipping data records, and visual analytics to provide to support situation awareness in dynamic decision making to monitor and warn against the movement of radiological threat materials through search, analysis and forecasting capabilities. The evaluation of clustering results through classification and systematic inspection of the clusters show the clusters have strong semantic cohesion and offer novel ways to detect transactions related to nuclear smuggling.

Towards a Cloud Computing Environment: Near Real-time Cloud Product Processing and Distribution for Next Generation Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, L.; Chee, T.; Minnis, P.; Palikonda, R.; Smith, W. L., Jr.; Spangenberg, D.

2016-12-01

The NASA LaRC Satellite ClOud and Radiative Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) processes and derives near real-time (NRT) global cloud products from operational geostationary satellite imager datasets. These products are being used in NRT to improve forecast model, aircraft icing warnings, and support aircraft field campaigns. Next generation satellites, such as the Japanese Himawari-8 and the upcoming NOAA GOES-R, present challenges for NRT data processing and product dissemination due to the increase in temporal and spatial resolution. The volume of data is expected to increase to approximately 10 folds. This increase in data volume will require additional IT resources to keep up with the processing demands to satisfy NRT requirements. In addition, these resources are not readily available due to cost and other technical limitations. To anticipate and meet these computing resource requirements, we have employed a hybrid cloud computing environment to augment the generation of SatCORPS products. This paper will describe the workflow to ingest, process, and distribute SatCORPS products and the technologies used. Lessons learn from working on both AWS Clouds and GovCloud will be discussed: benefits, similarities, and differences that could impact decision to use cloud computing and storage. A detail cost analysis will be presented. In addition, future cloud utilization, parallelization, and architecture layout will be discussed for GOES-R.

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

Decision Support Systems and Early Warning Solutions: a review in European context.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortes, V. J.; Frigerio, S.; Schenato, L.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.

2012-04-01

According to the aim of the CHANGES network, an EU funded project, research is carried out towards the improvement of the emergency management strategies for hydro-meteorological hazards under the effects of climate and the pressure of socio-economic changes. Aim supported on the need to enhance local resilience to these hazards under different scenarios, if possible by means of a multi-disciplinary and multi-hazard approach. Both requirements recognized on the scientific and practical community. In this context, the current management of hydro-meteorological hazards have posed some difficulties due to the complexity of the phenomena and the processes associated. These impacts, usually developed as a domino effect are still not properly understood and require a management strategy that combines active and passive mitigation measures. On the other hand, the every time most destructive effect of these hazards and the available information and communication techniques has also stressed the responsible authorities to prepare, develop and implement more effective safeguard plans. Finally, a combined approach to this situation depicts a research way by integrating the development and implementation of early warning systems (EWS) and contingency plans (CP), which is generally constricted by the state-of-art and particular conditions for the assessment of hazards in place. Consequently, here is presented a review of Decision Support Systems (DSS) and EWS on hydrometeorological hazards such as flash floods, debris flows and landslides as a starting point for such a research initiative. Identification of common and basic features, advantages and disadvantages are expected to derive some elements for possible developments. The review is carried from the key conclusions and recommendations identified with past experiences of testing and developing a common platform; which generally comprises workflow management modules encrypted in a DSS with GIS interface and communication strategies and tools by ICT (Information & Communication Technology) for preparedness and response activities in the field of Civil Protection. The test experience was a joint development between CNR -IDPA and CNRS & University of Strasbourg for the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities Valtellina di Tirano, (Lombardia region, Italy)and the ONF-RTM Service of Barcelonnette (French South Alps).

Epidemiological Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Kenya and Tanzania in 2006 and 2007

PubMed Central

Jost, Christine C.; Nzietchueng, Serge; Kihu, Simon; Bett, Bernard; Njogu, George; Swai, Emmanuel S.; Mariner, Jeffrey C.

2010-01-01

To capture lessons from the 2007 Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak, epidemiological studies were carried out in Kenya and Tanzania. Somali pastoralists proved to be adept at recognizing symptoms of RVF and risk factors such as heavy rainfall and mosquito swarms. Sandik, which means “bloody nose,” was used by Somalis to denote disease consistent with RVF. Somalis reported that sandik was previously seen in 1997/98, the period of the last RVF epidemic. Pastoralists communicated valuable epidemiological information for surveillance and early warning systems that was observed before international warnings. The results indicate that an all or none approach to decision making contributed to the delay in response. In the future, a phased approach balancing actions against increasing risk of an outbreak would be more effective. Given the time required to mobilize large vaccine stocks, emergency vaccination did not contribute to the mitigation of explosive outbreaks of RVF. PMID:20682908

The Mexican Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Mexicana)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdes-Gonzales, C. M.; Arreola-Manzano, J.; Castelan-Pescina, G.; Alonso-Rivera, P.; Saldivar-Rangel, M. A.; Rodriguez-Arteaga, O. O.; Lopez-Lena-Villasana, R.

2014-12-01

The Mexican Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Mexicana) was created to give sufficient information and opportune to make decisions in order to mitigate seismic and tsunami risk. This was a Mexican government initiative headed by CENAPRED (National Disaster Prevention Center) who made an effort to integrated academic institutions and civil agencies to work together through a collaboration agreement. This network is supported by Universidad National Autónoma de México (UNAM) and its seismic networks (Broad Band and Strong Motion), the Centro de Instrumentación y Registro Sismico (CIRES) with its Earthquake Early Warning System that covers the Guerrero Gap and Oaxaca earthquakes, The Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE) with the support of its expertise in tsunami observation and the Secretaria de Marina (SEMAR) to monitor the sea level and operate the Mexican Tsunami Warning Center. The institutions involved in this scope have the compromise to interchange and share the data and advice to the Civil Protection authorities.

An entropy decision approach in flash flood warning: rainfall thresholds definition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montesarchio, V.; Napolitano, F.; Ridolfi, E.

2009-09-01

Flash floods events are floods characterised by very rapid response of the basins to the storms, and often they involve loss of life and damage to common and private properties. Due to the specific space-time scale of this kind of flood, generally only a short lead time is available for triggering civil protection measures. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section. The overcoming of these values could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk, so it is possible to compare directly the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running on line real time forecasting systems. This study is focused on the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated minimising an utility function based on the informative entropy concept. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warning, false alarms and missed alarms.

Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Godt, J.W.; Baum, R.L.; Chleborad, A.F.

2006-01-01

Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazzard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfull data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity-duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field-monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity-duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Medicine authentication technology as a counterfeit medicine-detection tool: a Delphi method study to establish expert opinion on manual medicine authentication technology in secondary care

PubMed Central

Naughton, Bernard; Roberts, Lindsey; Dopson, Sue; Brindley, David; Chapman, Stephen

2017-01-01

Objectives This study aims to establish expert opinion and potential improvements for the Falsified Medicines Directive mandated medicines authentication technology. Design and intervention A two-round Delphi method study using an online questionnaire. Setting Large National Health Service (NHS) foundation trust teaching hospital. Participants Secondary care pharmacists and accredited checking technicians. Primary outcome measures Seven-point rating scale answers which reached a consensus of 70–80% with a standard deviation (SD) of <1.0. Likert scale questions which reached a consensus of 70–80%, a SD of <1.0 and classified as important according to study criteria. Results Consensus expert opinion has described database cross-checking technology as quick and user friendly and suggested the inclusion of an audio signal to further support the detection of counterfeit medicines in secondary care (70% consensus, 0.9 SD); other important consensus with a SD of <1.0 included reviewing the colour and information in warning pop up screens to ensure they were not mistaken for the ‘already dispensed here’ pop up, encouraging the dispenser/checker to act on the warnings and making it mandatory to complete an ‘action taken’ documentation process to improve the quarantine of potentially counterfeit, expired or recalled medicines. Conclusions This paper informs key opinion leaders and decision makers as to the positives and negatives of medicines authentication technology from an operator's perspective and suggests the adjustments which may be required to improve operator compliance and the detection of counterfeit medicines in the secondary care sector. PMID:28478398

Tobacco industry interference for pictorial warnings.

PubMed

Oswal, K C; Pednekar, M S; Gupta, P C

2010-07-01

A study was carried out to understand the process of interference by the tobacco industry, to measure the compliance of the industry for displaying pictorial warnings on a tobacco product as per the packaging and labeling rules post 31st May, 2009, and to understand the public opinion on the messages conveyed through such warnings. A total of 60 samples of tobacco products were purchased after 31 May, 2009, from the retail vendors of tobacco sellers across the country. The government of India has from time to time, taken measures, including legislations, to control tobacco consumption. The actual implementation of these rules has been postponed repeatedly, apparently because of constant pressure exerted by the tobacco industry. The skull and bone sign hurting religious sentiments as stated by the group of ministers proved to be misleading. Later the Group of Ministers (GOM) proposed three very weak and poorly communicative pictorial health warnings to replace those recommended by the Union Health Ministry based on the inputs of the Department of Audio Visual Publicity (DAVP). The industry tried to use strategic means by displaying a dull, diluted, and watered down pictorial warning. The focus group study conducted showed that a scorpion gets associated with the product in a non-scientific manner. X-ray of the lung was hardly understood by anybody. Overall the tobacco industry has constantly flouted with the law right from the policy level to its implementation by displaying dull, diluted, and poorly informed pictorial warnings.

Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

2017-12-01

This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

Better Data Help Make Better Decisions: Disseminating Information During Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conner, K.; Lindner, J.; Moore, M.

2017-12-01

During large scale natural disasters, like hurricane Harvey, time-critical decisions are made on a constant basis. From evacuation orders, allocation of emergency resources, or allowing people to return home, decisions are only as good as the information upon which they are based. Better real-time data lead to better decisions which ultimately leads to improved disaster response and recovery. In 2015 Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) in Houston, TX began upgrading their automatic flood warning system (FWS) that dates back to the 1980s. The HCFCD network consists of 154 remote stations that report precipitation intensities and stream levels in near real time. Since the upgrades were completed in 2016 the Houston area has experienced multiple 100+ rain events, the most recent being Hurricane Harvey. The FWS generated accurate, reliable, real-time data throughout the entirety of the record breaking, four-day event. This information was disseminated to state, local and federal agencies, news outlets and the public via web sites and social media. Without this quality of data, disaster management decisions could not have been made effectively, ultimately leading to greater destruction of property and loss of life.

Adapting ISA system warnings to enhance user acceptance.

PubMed

Jiménez, Felipe; Liang, Yingzhen; Aparicio, Francisco

2012-09-01

Inappropriate speed is a major cause of traffic accidents. Different measures have been considered to control traffic speed, and intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) systems are one of the alternatives. These systems know the speed limits and try to improve compliance with them. This paper deals with an informative ISA system that provides the driver with an advance warning before reaching a road section with singular characteristics that require a lower safe speed than the current speed. In spite of the extensive tests performed using ISA systems, few works show how warnings can be adapted to the driver. This paper describes a method to adapt warning parameters (safe speed on curves, zone of influence of a singular stretch, deceleration process and reaction time) to normal driving behavior. The method is based on a set of tests with and without the ISA system. This adjustment, as well as the analysis of driver acceptance before and after the adaptation and changes in driver behavior (changes in speed and path) resulting from the tested ISA regarding a driver's normal driving style, is shown in this paper. The main conclusion is that acceptance by drivers increased significantly after redefining the warning parameters, but the effect of speed homogenization was not reduced. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of PDAs to collect baseline survey data: lessons learned from a pilot project in Bolivia.

PubMed

Escandon, I N; Searing, H; Goldberg, R; Duran, R; Arce, J Monterrey

2008-01-01

We compared the use of personal digital assistants (PDAs) against the use of standard paper questionnaires for collecting survey data. The evaluation consisted of qualitative approaches to document the process of introducing PDAs. Fieldwork was carried out during June-July 2005 at 12 sites in Bolivia. Data collectors reacted positively to the use of the PDAs and noted the advantages and disadvantages of paper and PDA data collection. A number of difficulties encountered in the use of PDA technology serve as a warning for investigators planning its adoption. Problems included incompatible data files (which impeded the ability to interpret data), an inadequate back-up protocol, and lack of a good 'fit' between the technology and the study. Ensuring the existence of a back-end database, developing an appropriate and adequate back-up protocol, and assessing whether a technology 'fits' the project are important factors in weighing the decision to collect data using PDAs.

Safe use of vaccines and vaccine compliance with food safety requirements.

PubMed

Grein, K; Papadopoulos, O; Tollis, M

2007-08-01

Advanced technologies and regulatory regimes have contributed to the availability of veterinary vaccines that have high quality and favourable safety profiles in terms of potential risks posed to the target animals, the persons who come into contact with the vaccine, the consumers of food derived from vaccinated animals and the environment. The authorisation process requires that a range of safety studies are provided to evaluate the products. The design and production of vaccines, and their safe use, are primarily assessed by using data gathered from extensive pre-marketing studies performed on target animals and specific quality tests. The current post-marketing safeguards include good manufacturing practices, batch safety testing, inspections and pharmacovigilance. In addition to hazard identification, a full benefit/risk evaluation needs to be undertaken. The outcome of that evaluation will determine options for risk management and affect regulatory decisions on the safety of the vaccine; options might, for example, include special warnings on package inserts and labels.

Olecranon bursitis: a systematic overview

PubMed Central

Hay, Bruce A; Bolt, Alexander M; Hay, Stuart M

2014-01-01

Background Olecranon bursitis is a common condition where the bursal cavity, superficial to the olecranon, becomes inflamed. This can occur either with or without infection and has been given pseudonyms relating to the repeated minor trauma from external pressure that often predisposes. As a result of the multiple aetiologies, olecranon bursitis can present to any medical specialty with reasonable frequency and, although many therapies are described, a single, evidence-based and standardized treatment pathway is not well described. Methods We summarize the key points within the literature and subsequently propose an evidence-based treatment pathway. Results Relevant evidence is presented from appropriate publications to add rational to existing decision-making processes, together with personal experience and suggested operative bursectomy techniques from an established upper limb surgeon. The common and significant aetiologies are summarized and, in particular, red flag symptoms are highlighted by way of warning to the unsuspecting investigator. Conclusions The conclusion is provided in diagrammatic form, providing a suggested treatment pathway from history and examination through to operative intervention. PMID:27582935

HIV prevention and the two faces of partner notification.

PubMed Central

Bayer, R; Toomey, K E

1992-01-01

In the cases of medical patients with sexually transmitted diseases (particularly those with the human immunodeficiency virus), two distinct approaches exist to notifying sexual and/or needle-sharing partners of possible risk. Each approach has its own history (including unique practical problems of implementation) and provokes its own ethical dilemmas. The first approach--the moral "duty to warn"--arose out of clinical situations in which a physician knew the identity of a person deemed to be at risk. The second approach--that of contact tracing--emerged from sexually transmitted disease control programs in which the clinician typically did not know the identity of those who might have been exposed. Confusion between the two approaches has led many to mistake processes that are fundamentally voluntary as mandatory and those that respect confidentiality as invasive of privacy. In the context of the AIDS epidemic and the vicissitudes of the two approaches, we describe the complex problems of partner notification and underscore the ethical and political contexts within which policy decisions have been made. PMID:1304728

The Therapeutic use of Radon: A Biomedical Treatment in Europe; An “Alternative” Remedy in the United States

PubMed Central

Erickson, Barbra E.

2007-01-01

There is a growing recognition in the United States and Europe that health care is driven to a significant extent by an emphasis on consumer choice and demand. As consumers, people regularly choose their own solutions for health promotion and maintenance, solutions which may or may not be sanctioned by mainstream medicine. Radioactive radon therapy exemplifies a non-sanctioned treatment eagerly sought by certain patients, but scorned or dismissed by many physicians. This is certainly the case in the United States, where well-publicized Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) warnings portray radon as a potential carcinogen. Between 1997 and 2001, I worked with a population of arthritis sufferers who expose themselves to radon gas in Montana radon health mines in order to alleviate their symptoms. In this paper I discuss the decision-making process involved in using radon, and compare the Montana radon health mine facilities with selected radon mines and spas in Europe. PMID:18648554

How to pose the question matters: Behavioural Economics concepts in decision making on the basis of ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, Leonardo; van Andel, Schalk Jan

2014-05-01

Part of recent research in ensemble and probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasting analyses which probabilistic information is required by decision makers and how it can be most effectively visualised. This work, in addition, analyses if decision making in flood early warning is also influenced by the way the decision question is posed. For this purpose, the decision-making game "Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?", which Ramos et al (2012) conducted at the EGU General Assembly 2012 in the city of Vienna, has been repeated with a small group and expanded. In that game decision makers had to decide whether or not to open a flood release gate, on the basis of flood forecasts, with and without uncertainty information. A conclusion of that game was that, in the absence of uncertainty information, decision makers are compelled towards a more risk-averse attitude. In order to explore to what extent the answers were driven by the way the questions were framed, in addition to the original experiment, a second variant was introduced where participants were asked to choose between a sure value (for either loosing or winning with a giving probability) and a gamble. This set-up is based on Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Results indicate that the way how the questions are posed may play an important role in decision making and that Prospect Theory provides promising concepts to further understand how this works.

Launch Commit Criteria Monitoring Agent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semmel, Glenn S.; Davis, Steven R.; Leucht, Kurt W.; Rowe, Dan A.; Kelly, Andrew O.; Boeloeni, Ladislau

2005-01-01

The Spaceport Processing Systems Branch at NASA Kennedy Space Center has developed and deployed a software agent to monitor the Space Shuttle's ground processing telemetry stream. The application, the Launch Commit Criteria Monitoring Agent, increases situational awareness for system and hardware engineers during Shuttle launch countdown. The agent provides autonomous monitoring of the telemetry stream, automatically alerts system engineers when predefined criteria have been met, identifies limit warnings and violations of launch commit criteria, aids Shuttle engineers through troubleshooting procedures, and provides additional insight to verify appropriate troubleshooting of problems by contractors. The agent has successfully detected launch commit criteria warnings and violations on a simulated playback data stream. Efficiency and safety are improved through increased automation.

Integration of Thermal Indoor Conditions into Operational Heat Health Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koppe, C.; Becker, P.; Pfafferott, J.

2009-09-01

The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe with altogether 35,000 to 50,000 deaths in Europe, several thousands of which occurred in Germany, has clearly pointed out the danger arising from long periods with high heat load. As a consequence, Germany, as many other European countries, has started to implement a Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). The German HHWS is based on the ‘Perceived Temperature'. The 'Perceived Temperature' is determined through a heat budget model of the human organism which includes the main thermophysiologically relevant mechanisms of heat exchange with the atmosphere. The most important meteorological ambience parameters included in the model are air temperature, humidity, wind speed and radiation fluxes in the short-wave and long-wave ranges. In addition to using a heat budget model for the assessment of the thermal load, the German HHWS also takes into account that the human body reacts in different ways to its thermal environment due to physiological adaptation (short-term acclimatisation) and short-term behavioural adaptation. The restriction of such an approach, like the majority of approaches used to issue heat warnings, is that the threshold for a warning is generally derived from meteorological observations and that warnings are issued on the basis of weather forecasts. Both, the observed data and the weather forecasts are only available for outside conditions. The group of people who are most at risk of suffering from a heat wave, however, are the elderly and frail who mainly stay inside. The indoor situation, which varies largely from the conditions outside, is not taken into account by most of the warning systems. To overcome this limitation the DWD, in co-operation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, has developed a model which simulates the thermal conditions in the indoor environment. As air-conditioning in private housing in Germany is not very common, the thermal indoor conditions depend on the outside conditions, on the building characteristics, and on the inhabitants' behaviour. The thermal building simulation model estimates the indoor heat load based of the predicted meteorological outside conditions by calculating the operative indoor temperature. The building types prevailing in Germany are quite heterogeneous. It was therefore decided to use for the thermal simulation a so-called "realistic worst-case” building type. In addition, a differentiation is made between two types of user behaviour: the active user opens the windows during the cold hours of the day and uses shading devices whereas the passive user does nothing to keep the heat outside. Since 2007, the DWD has been using the simulation of the indoor thermal conditions as an additional source of information for heat warnings. The information on the indoor conditions has proved very valuable for the decision whether to issue a heat warning or not.

Namibian Flood Early Warning SensorWeb Pilot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandl, Daniel; Policelli, Fritz; Frye, Stuart; Cappelare, Pat; Langenhove, Guido Van; Szarzynski, Joerg; Sohlberg, Rob

2010-01-01

The major goal of the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project is a scientifically sound, operational trans-boundary flood management decision support system for Southern African region to provide useful flood and waterborne disease forecasting tools for local decision makers. The Pilot Project established under the auspices of: Namibian Ministry of Agriculture Water and Forestry (MAWF), Department of Water Affairs; Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS), Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS); and moderated by the United Nations Platform for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). The effort consists of identifying and prototyping technology which enables the rapid gathering and dissemination of both space-based and ground sensor data and data products for the purpose of flood disaster management and water-borne disease management.

Driving difficulties in Parkinson's disease

PubMed Central

Rizzo, Matthew; Uc, Ergun Y; Dawson, Jeffrey; Anderson, Steven; Rodnitzky, Robert

2011-01-01

Safe driving requires the coordination of attention, perception, memory, motor and executive functions (including decision-making) and self-awareness. PD and other disorders may impair these abilities. Because age or medical diagnosis alone is often an unreliable criterion for licensure, decisions on fitness to drive should be based on empirical observations of performance. Linkages between cognitive abilities measured by neuropsychological tasks, and driving behavior assessed using driving simulators, and natural and naturalistic observations in instrumented vehicles, can help standardize the assessment of fitness-to-drive. By understanding the patterns of driver safety errors that cause crashes, it may be possible to design interventions to reduce these errors and injuries and increase mobility. This includes driver performance monitoring devices, collision alerting and warning systems, road design, and graded licensure strategies. PMID:20187237

Preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality: new approaches in a changing climate.

PubMed

O'Neill, Marie S; Carter, Rebecca; Kish, Jonathan K; Gronlund, Carina J; White-Newsome, Jalonne L; Manarolla, Xico; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2009-10-20

Due to global climate change, the world will, on average, experience a higher number of heat waves, and the intensity and length of these heat waves is projected to increase. Knowledge about the implications of heat exposure to human health is growing, with excess mortality and illness occurring during hot weather in diverse regions. Certain groups, including the elderly, the urban poor, and those with chronic health conditions, are at higher risk. Preventive actions include: establishing heat wave warning systems; making cool environments available (through air conditioning or other means); public education; planting trees and other vegetation; and modifying the built environment to provide proper ventilation and use materials and colors that reduce heat build-up and optimize thermal comfort. However, to inspire local prevention activities, easily understood information about the strategies' benefits needs to be incorporated into decision tools. Integrating heat health information into a comprehensive adaptation planning process can alert local decision-makers to extreme heat risks and provide information necessary to choose strategies that yield the largest health improvements and cost savings. Tools to enable this include web-based programs that illustrate effective methods for including heat health in comprehensive local-level adaptation planning; calculate costs and benefits of several activities; maps showing zones of high potential heat exposure and vulnerable populations in a local area; and public awareness materials and training for implementing preventive activities. A new computer-based decision tool will enable local estimates of heat-related health effects and potential savings from implementing a range of prevention strategies.

A WWW-based information system on resistance of bacteria to antibiotics.

PubMed

Schindler, J; Schindler, Z; Schindler, J

1998-01-01

The information system on resistance of bacteria to antibiotics (WARN--World Antibiotic Resistance Network) is implemented as a WWW server at Charles University in Prague (http:/(/)www.warn.cas.cz). Its main goal is to give information about problems of antibiotic resistance of bacteria and to process data on isolated strains. The WARN web-site contains six main topics. Four of them form the core of the system: Topics of Interest bring information on selected timely topics in antibiotic resistance--pneumococci, staphylococci, beta-lactamases, glycopeptide--and aminoglycoside resistance. Global Monitor brings references and reports on resistance in the world as well as recommended method of surveillance. The topic Data contains raw data on strains in particular countries and hospitals. Data can be viewed in their original form as a list of records (strains) or processed to provide statistics about the resistance rates in the selected country or hospital respectively. The topic Search allows one to search for one or several terms in the whole document. Counts of accessed pages show, that there is a standing demand for information about the serious problems of antibiotic therapy of infectious diseases.

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge to Science and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.

2009-12-01

Society is challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often subsiding and densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Faced with a trade-off between imposing the very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon today's national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations, governments and decision makers are in need of scientific support for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies for the coastal zone. Low-frequency to secular changes in LSL are the result of many interacting Earth system processes. The complexity of the Earth system makes it difficult to predict Global Sea Level (GSL) rise and, even more so, LSL changes over the next 100 to 200 years. Humans have re-engineered the planet and changed major features of the Earth surface and the atmosphere, thus ruling out extrapolation of past and current changes into the future as a reasonable approach. The risk of rapid changes in ocean circulation and ice sheet mass balance introduces the possibility of unexpected changes. Therefore, science is challenged with understanding and constraining the full range of plausible future LSL trajectories and with providing useful support for informed decisions. In the face of largely unpredictable future sea level changes, monitoring of the relevant processes and development of a forecasting service on realistic time scales is crucial as decision support. Forecasting and "early warning" for LSL rise would have to aim at decadal time scales, giving coastal managers sufficient time to react if the onset of rapid changes would require an immediate response. The social, environmental, and economic risks associated with potentially large and rapid LSL changes are enormous. Therefore, in the light of the current uncertainties and the unpredictable nature of some of the forcing processes for LSL changes, the focus of scientific decision support may have to shift from projections of LSL trajectories on century time scales to the development of models and monitoring systems for a forecasting service on decadal time scales. The requirements for such a LSL forecasting service and the current obstacles will be discussed.

Analysis of Tsunami Evacuation Issues Using Agent Based Modeling. A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami in Yuriage, Natori.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mas, E.; Takagi, H.; Adriano, B.; Hayashi, S.; Koshimura, S.

2014-12-01

The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami reminded that nature can exceed structural countermeasures like seawalls, breakwaters or tsunami gates. In such situations it is a challenging task for people to find nearby haven. This event, as many others before, confirmed the importance of early evacuation, tsunami awareness and the need for developing much more resilient communities with effective evacuation plans. To support reconstruction activities and efforts on developing resilient communities in areas at risk, tsunami evacuation simulation can be applied to tsunami mitigation and evacuation planning. In this study, using the compiled information related to the evacuation behavior at Yuriage in Natori during the 2011 tsunami, we simulated the evacuation process and explored the reasons for the large number of fatalities in the area. It was found that residents did evacuate to nearby shelter areas, however after the tsunami warning was increased some evacuees decided to conduct a second step evacuation to a far inland shelter. Simulation results show the consequences of such decision and the outcomes when a second evacuation would not have been performed. The actual reported number of fatalities in the event and the results from simulation are compared to verify the model. The case study shows the contribution of tsunami evacuation models as tools to be applied for the analysis of evacuees' decisions and the related outcomes. In addition, future evacuation plans and activities for reconstruction process and urban planning can be supported by the results provided from this kind of tsunami evacuation models.

Barriers and facilitators to health care seeking behaviours in pregnancy in rural communities of southern Mozambique.

PubMed

Munguambe, Khátia; Boene, Helena; Vidler, Marianne; Bique, Cassimo; Sawchuck, Diane; Firoz, Tabassum; Makanga, Prestige Tatenda; Qureshi, Rahat; Macete, Eusébio; Menéndez, Clara; von Dadelszen, Peter; Sevene, Esperança

2016-06-08

In countries, such as Mozambique, where maternal mortality remains high, the greatest contribution of mortality comes from the poor and vulnerable communities, who frequently reside in remote and rural areas with limited access to health care services. This study aimed to understand women's health care seeking practices during pregnancy, taking into account the underlying social, cultural and structural barriers to accessing timely appropriate care in Maputo and Gaza Provinces, southern Mozambique. This ethnographic study collected data through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with women of reproductive age, including pregnant women, as well as household-level decision makers (partners, mothers and mothers-in-law), traditional healers, matrons, and primary health care providers. Data was analysed thematically using NVivo 10. Antenatal care was sought at the heath facility for the purpose of opening the antenatal record. Women without antenatal cards feared mistreatment during labour. Antenatal care was also sought to resolve discomforts, such as headaches, flu-like symptoms, body pain and backache. However, partners and husbands considered lower abdominal pain as the only symptom requiring care and discouraged women from revealing their pregnancy early in gestation. Health care providers for pregnant women often included those at the health facility, matrons, elders, traditional birth attendants, and community health workers. Although seeking care from traditional healers was discouraged during the antenatal period, they did provide services during pregnancy and after delivery. Besides household-level decision-makers, matrons, community health workers, and neighbours were key actors in the referral of pregnant women. The decision-making process may be delayed and particularly complex if an emergency occurs in their absence. Limited access to transport and money makes the decision-making process to seek care at the health facility even more complex. Women do seek antenatal care at health facilities, despite the presence of other health care providers in the community. There are important factors that prevent timely care-seeking for obstetric emergencies and delivery. Unfamiliarity with warning signs, especially among partners, discouragement from revealing pregnancy early in gestation, complex and untimely decision-making processes, fear of mistreatment by health-care providers, lack of transport and financial constraints were the most commonly cited barriers. Women of reproductive age would benefit from community saving schemes for transport and medication, which in turn would improve their birth preparedness and emergency readiness; in addition, pregnancy follow-up should include key family members, and community-based health care providers should encourage prompt referrals to health facilities, when appropriate. NCT01911494.

Development of a smart flood warning system in urban areas: A case study of Huwei area in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sheng-Chi; Hsu, Hao-Ming; Kao, Hong-Ming

2016-04-01

In this study, we developed a smart flood warning system to clearly understand flood propagations in urban areas. The science and technology park of Huwei, located in the southwest of Taiwan, was selected as a study area. It was designated to be an important urban area of optoelectronics and biotechnology. The region has an area about 1 km2 with approximately 1 km in both length and width. The discrepancy between the highest and lowest elevations is 6.3 m and its elevation decreases along the northeast to the southwest. It is an isolated urban drainage area due to its urban construction plan. The storm sewer system in this region includes three major networks that collect the runoff and drain to the detention pond where is located in the southwest corner of the region. The proposed smart flood warning system combines three important parts, i.e. the physical world, the cyber-physical interface, and the cyber space, to identify how the flood affects urban areas from now until the next three hours. In the physical world, when a rainfall event occurs, monitoring sensors (e.g. rainfall gauges and water level gauges built in the sewer system and ground surface), which are established in several essential locations of the study area, collect in situ hydrological data and then these data being transported to the cyber-physical interface. The cyber-physical interface is a data preprocess space that includes data analysis, quality control and assurance, and data integration and standardization to produce the validated data. In the cyber space, it has missions to receive the validated data from the cyber-physical interface and to run the time machine that has flood analyses of data mining, inundation scenarios simulation, risk and economic assessments, and so on, based on the validated data. After running the time machine, it offers the analyzed results related to flooding planning, mitigation, response, and recovery. According to the analyzed results, the decision supporting system, therefore, can publish warning information in urban areas at the right time. Keywords: flood warning system, flood mitigation, inundation.

New Coastal Tsunami Gauges: Application at Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgy, M.; Bolton, D. K.

2006-12-01

Recent eruptive activity at Augustine Volcano and its associated tsunami threat to lower Cook Inlet pointed out the need for a quickly deployable tsunami detector which could be installed on Augustine Island's coast. The detector's purpose would be to verify tsunami generation by direct observation of the wave at the source to support tsunami warning decisions along populated coastlines. To fill this need the Tsunami Mobile Alert Real-Time (TSMART) system was developed at NOAA's West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center with support from the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). The TSMART system consists of a pressure sensor installed as near as possible to the low tide line. The sensor is enclosed in a water-tight hypalon bag filled with propylene-glycol to prevent silt damage to the sensor and freezing. The bag is enclosed in a perforated, strong plastic pipe about 16 inches long and 8 inches in diameter enclosed at both ends for protection. The sensor is cabled to a data logger/radio/power station up to 300 feet distant. Data are transmitted to a base station and made available to the warning center in real-time through the internet. This data telemetry system can be incorporated within existing AVO and Plate Boundary Observatory networks which makes it ideal for volcano-tsunami monitoring. A TSMART network can be utilized anywhere in the world within 120 miles of an internet connection. At Augustine, two test stations were installed on the east side of the island in August 2006. The sensors were located very near the low tide limit and covered with rock, and the cable was buried to the data logger station which was located well above high tide mark. Data logger, radio, battery and other electronics are housed in an enclosure mounted to a pole which also supports an antenna and solar panel. Radio signal is transmitted to a repeater station higher up on the island which then transmits the data to a base station in Homer, Alaska. Sea level data values are transmitted every 15 seconds and displayed at the tsunami warning center in Palmer, Alaska.

Implementation of the Geological Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System Based on Multi - source Data -A Case Study of Deqin Tibetan County, Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Junsan; Chen, Guoping; Yuan, Lei

2017-04-01

The new technologies, such as 3D laser scanning, InSAR, GNSS, unmanned aerial vehicle and Internet of things, will provide much more data resources for the surveying and monitoring, as well as the development of Early Warning System (EWS). This paper provides the solutions of the design and implementation of a geological disaster monitoring and early warning system (GDMEWS), which includes landslides and debris flows hazard, based on the multi-sources of the date by use of technologies above mentioned. The complex and changeable characteristics of the GDMEWS are described. The architecture of the system, composition of the multi-source database, development mode and service logic, the methods and key technologies of system development are also analyzed. To elaborate the process of the implementation of the GDMEWS, Deqin Tibetan County is selected as a case study area, which has the unique terrain and diverse types of typical landslides and debris flows. Firstly, the system functional requirements, monitoring and forecasting models of the system are discussed. Secondly, the logic relationships of the whole process of disaster including pre-disaster, disaster rescue and post-disaster reconstruction are studied, and the support tool for disaster prevention, disaster reduction and geological disaster management are developed. Thirdly, the methods of the multi - source monitoring data integration and the generation of the mechanism model of Geological hazards and simulation are expressed. Finally, the construction of the GDMEWS is issued, which will be applied to management, monitoring and forecasting of whole disaster process in real-time and dynamically in Deqin Tibetan County. Keywords: multi-source spatial data; geological disaster; monitoring and warning system; Deqin Tibetan County

Medium Range Ensembles Flood Forecasts for Community Level Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S.; Kawasaki, A.; Babel, M. S.; AIT

2013-05-01

Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, there has been a major advancement in medium range and seasonal forecasting. These could provide a great opportunity to improve early warning systems and advisories for early action for strategic and long term planning. This could result in increasing emphasis on proactive rather than reactive management of adverse consequences of flood events. This can be also very helpful for the agricultural sector by providing a diversity of options to farmers (e.g. changing cropping pattern, planting timing, etc.). An experimental medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh which provides 51 set of discharge ensembles forecasts of one to ten days with significant persistence and high certainty. This could help communities (i.e. farmer) for gain/lost estimation as well as crop savings. This paper describe the application of ensembles probabilistic flood forecast at the community level for differential decision making focused on agriculture. The framework allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options that are possible, and the exogenous influences that should be taken into account before planning and decision making. risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted through community consultation. The forecast lead time requirement, users' needs, impact and management options for crops, livestock and fisheries sectors were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and questionnaire survey.

Time series analysis of temporal trends in the pertussis incidence in Mainland China from 2005 to 2016.

PubMed

Zeng, Qianglin; Li, Dandan; Huang, Gui; Xia, Jin; Wang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yamei; Tang, Wanping; Zhou, Hui

2016-08-31

Short-term forecast of pertussis incidence is helpful for advanced warning and planning resource needs for future epidemics. By utilizing the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model as alterative models with R software, this paper analyzed data from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) between January 2005 and June 2016. The ARIMA (0,1,0)(1,1,1)12 model (AICc = 1342.2 BIC = 1350.3) was selected as the best performing ARIMA model and the ETS (M,N,M) model (AICc = 1678.6, BIC = 1715.4) was selected as the best performing ETS model, and the ETS (M,N,M) model with the minimum RMSE was finally selected for in-sample-simulation and out-of-sample forecasting. Descriptive statistics showed that the reported number of pertussis cases by China CDC increased by 66.20% from 2005 (4058 cases) to 2015 (6744 cases). According to Hodrick-Prescott filter, there was an apparent cyclicity and seasonality in the pertussis reports. In out of sample forecasting, the model forecasted a relatively high incidence cases in 2016, which predicates an increasing risk of ongoing pertussis resurgence in the near future. In this regard, the ETS model would be a useful tool in simulating and forecasting the incidence of pertussis, and helping decision makers to take efficient decisions based on the advanced warning of disease incidence.

Sensor Fusion of Position- and Micro-Sensors (MEMS) integrated in a Wireless Sensor Network for movement detection in landslide areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnhardt, Christian; Fernández-Steeger, Tomas; Azzam, Rafig

2010-05-01

Monitoring systems in landslide areas are important elements of effective Early Warning structures. Data acquisition and retrieval allows the detection of movement processes and thus is essential to generate warnings in time. Apart from the precise measurement, the reliability of data is fundamental, because outliers can trigger false alarms and leads to the loss of acceptance of such systems. For the monitoring of mass movements and their risk it is important to know, if there is movement, how fast it is and how trustworthy is the information. The joint project "Sensorbased landslide early warning system" (SLEWS) deals with these questions, and tries to improve data quality and to reduce false alarm rates, due to the combination of sensor date (sensor fusion). The project concentrates on the development of a prototypic Alarm- and Early Warning system (EWS) for different types of landslides by using various low-cost sensors, integrated in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The network consists of numerous connection points (nodes) that transfer data directly or over other nodes (Multi-Hop) in real-time to a data collection point (gateway). From there all the data packages are transmitted to a spatial data infrastructure (SDI) for further processing, analyzing and visualizing with respect to end-user specifications. The ad-hoc characteristic of the network allows the autonomous crosslinking of the nodes according to existing connections and communication strength. Due to the independent finding of new or more stable connections (self healing) a breakdown of the whole system is avoided. The bidirectional data stream enables the receiving of data from the network but also allows the transfer of commands and pointed requests into the WSN. For the detection of surface deformations in landslide areas small low-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical-Systems (MEMS) and positionsensors from the automobile industries, different industrial applications and from other measurement technologies were chosen. The MEMS-Sensors are acceleration-, tilt- and barometric pressure sensors. The positionsensors are draw wire and linear displacement transducers. In first laboratory tests the accuracy and resolution were investigated. The tests showed good results for all sensors. For example tilt-movements can be monitored with an accuracy of +/- 0,06° and a resolution of 0,1°. With the displacement transducer change in length of >0,1mm is possible. Apart from laboratory tests, field tests in South France and Germany were done to prove data stability and movement detection under real conditions. The results obtained were very satisfying, too. In the next step the combination of numerous sensors (sensor fusion) of the same type (redundancy) or different types (complementary) was researched. Different experiments showed that there is a high concordance between identical sensor-types. According to different sensor parameters (sensitivity, accuracy, resolution) some sensor-types can identify changes earlier. Taking this into consideration, good correlations between different kinds of sensors were achieved, too. Thus the experiments showed that combination of sensors is possible and this could improve the detection of movement and movement rate but also outliers. Based on this results various algorithms were setup that include different statistical methods (outlier tests, testing of hypotheses) and procedures from decision theories (Hurwicz-criteria). These calculation formulas will be implemented in the spatial data infrastructure (SDI) for the further data processing and validation. In comparison with today existing mainly punctually working monitoring systems, the application of wireless sensor networks in combination with low-cost, but precise micro-sensors provides an inexpensive and easy to set up monitoring system also in large areas. The correlation of same but also different sensor-types permits a good data control. Thus the sensor fusion is a promising tool to detect movement more reliable and thus contributes essential to the improvement of Early Warning Systems.

Homeland security: sharing and managing critical incident information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashley, W. R., III

2003-09-01

Effective critical incident response for homeland security requires access to real-time information from many organizations. Command and control, as well as basic situational awareness, are all dependant on quickly communicating a dynamically changing picture to a variety of decision makers. For the most part, critical information management is not unfamiliar or new to the public safety community. However, new challenges present themselves when that information needs to be seamlessly shared across multiple organizations at the local, state and federal level in real-time. The homeland security problem does not lend itself to the traditional military joint forces planning model where activities shift from a deliberate planning process to a crisis action planning process. Rather, the homeland security problem is more similar to a traditional public safety model where the current activity state moves from complete inactivity or low-level attention to immediate crisis action planning. More often than not the escalation occurs with no warning or baseline information. This paper addresses the challenges of sharing critical incident information and the impacts new technologies will have on this problem. The value of current and proposed approaches will be critiqued for operational value and areas will be identified for further development.

Neural Correlates of Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels Predict Smoking Cessation Relapse

PubMed Central

Owens, Max M.; MacKillop, James; Gray, Joshua C.; Hawkshead, Brittany E.; Murphy, Cara M.; Sweet, Lawrence H.

2017-01-01

Exposure to graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packaging has been found to produce heightened activity in brain regions central to emotional processing and higher-order cognitive processes. The current study extends this literature by using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate neural activation in response to GWLs and use it to predict relapse in an evidence-based smoking cessation treatment program. Participants were 48 treatment-seeking nicotine-dependent smokers who completed an fMRI paradigm in which they were exposed to GWLs, text-only warning labels (TOLs), and matched control stimuli. Subsequently, they enrolled in smoking cessation treatment and their smoking behavior was monitored. Activation in bilateral amygdala, right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, right inferior frontal gyrus, left medial temporal gyrus, bilateral occipital lobe, and bilateral fusiform gyrus was greater during GWLs than TOLs. Neural response in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) during exposure to GWLs (relative to a visual control image) predicted relapse during treatment beyond baseline demographic and dependence severity, but response in the amygdala to GWLs did not. These findings suggest that neurocognitive processes in the vmPFC may be critical to understanding how GWL’s induce behavior change and may be useful as a predictor of smoking cessation treatment prognosis. PMID:28236714

The impact of false warnings on partial and full lane departure warnings effectiveness and acceptance in car driving.

PubMed

Navarro, Jordan; Yousfi, Elsa; Deniel, Jonathan; Jallais, Christophe; Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra

2016-12-01

In the past, lane departure warnings (LDWs) were demonstrated to improve driving behaviours during lane departures but little is known about the effects of unreliable warnings. This experiment focused on the influence of false warnings alone or in combination with missed warnings and warning onset on assistance effectiveness and acceptance. Two assistance unreliability levels (33 and 17%) and two warning onsets (partial and full lane departure) were manipulated in order to investigate interaction. Results showed that assistance, regardless unreliability levels and warning onsets, improved driving behaviours during lane departure episodes and outside of these episodes by favouring better lane-keeping performances. Full lane departure and highly unreliable warnings, however, reduced assistance efficiency. Drivers' assistance acceptance was better for the most reliable warnings and for the subsequent warnings. The data indicate that imperfect LDWs (false warnings or false and missed warnings) further improve driving behaviours compared to no assistance. Practitioner Summary: This study revealed that imperfect lane departure warnings are able to significantly improve driving performances and that warning onset is a key element for assistance effectiveness and acceptance. The conclusion may be of particular interest for lane departure warning designers.

Research to Operations: From Point Positions, Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling to GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

2017-12-01

This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2-3 minutes of the event, and coseismic displacements converging to static offsets. We will also develop visualizations of module outputs tailored to the operational environment. In the context of this work, we will also discuss this research to operations approach and other opportunities within the NASA Applied Science Disaster Program.

An automatic tsunami warning system: TREMORS application in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.

1996-03-01

An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

A real-time cabled observatory on the Cascadia subduction zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidale, J. E.; Delaney, J. R.; Toomey, D. R.; Bodin, P.; Roland, E. C.; Wilcock, W. S. D.; Houston, H.; Schmidt, D. A.; Allen, R. M.

2015-12-01

Subduction zones are replete with mystery and rife with hazard. Along most of the Pacific Northwest margin, the traditional methods of monitoring offshore geophysical activity use onshore sensors or involve conducting infrequent oceanographic expeditions. This results in a limited capacity for detecting and monitoring subduction processes offshore. We propose that the next step in geophysical observations of Cascadia should include real-time data delivered by a seafloor cable with seismic, geodetic, and pressure-sensing instruments. Along the Cascadia subduction zone, we need to monitor deformation, earthquakes, and fluid fluxes on short time scales. High-quality long-term time series are needed to establish baseline observations and evaluate secular changes in the subduction environment. Currently we lack a basic knowledge of the plate convergence rate, direction and its variations along strike and of how convergence is accommodated across the plate boundary. We also would like to seek cycles of microseismicity, how far locking extends up-dip, and the transient processes (i.e., fluid pulsing, tremor, and slow slip) that occur near the trench. For reducing risk to society, real-time monitoring has great benefit for immediate and accurate assessment through earthquake early warning systems. Specifically, the improvement to early warning would be in assessing the location, geometry, and progression of ongoing faulting and obtaining an accurate tsunami warning, as well as simply speeding up the early warning. It would also be valuable to detect strain transients and map the locked portion of the megathrust, and detect changes in locking over the earthquake cycle. Development of the US portion of a real-time cabled seismic and geodetic observatory should build upon the Ocean Observatories Initiative's cabled array, which was recently completed and is currently delivering continuous seismic and pressure data from the seafloor. Its implementation would require substantial initial and ongoing investments from federal and state governments, private partners and the academic community but would constitute a critical resource in mitigating the hazard both through improved earthquake and tsunami warning and an enhanced scientific understanding of subduction processes in Cascadia.