Immediate causality network of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Li; Qiu, Lu; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

2018-02-01

Extensive works show that a network of stocks within a single stock market stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system, such as collapses and/or crises. But a financial event covers usually several markets or even the global financial system. This mismatch of scale leads to lack of concise information to coordinate the event. In this work by using the transfer entropy we reconstruct the influential network between ten typical stock markets distributed in the world. Interesting findings include, before a financial crisis the connection strength reaches a maximum, which can act as an early warning signal of financial crises. The markets in America are monodirectionally and strongly influenced by that in Europe and act as the center. Some strongly linked pairs have also close correlations. The findings are helpful in understanding the evolution and modelling the dynamical process of the global financial system. This method can be extended straightly to find early warning signals for physiological and ecological systems, etc.

TravTek evaluation Orlando test network study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-01

THE INVEHICLE SAFETY ADVISORY AND WARNING SYSTEM (IVSAWS) IS A FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION EFFORT TO DEVELOP A NATIONWIDE VEHICULAR INFORMATION SYSTEM THAT PROVIDES DRIVERS WITH ADVANCE, SUPPLEMENTAL NOTIFICATION OF DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS USING...

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühnlenz, F.; Eveslage, I.; Fischer, J.; Fleming, K. M.; Lichtblau, B.; Milkereit, C.; Picozzi, M.

2009-12-01

The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures or seismic microzonation. Nevertheless its main purpose is the earthquake early warning, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected through cooperating stations. SEEDLink is used to store and provide access to the sensor data. Experiences and selected experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. SOSEWIN considers also the needs of earthquake task forces, which want to set-up a temporary seismic network rapidly and with light-weighted stations to record after-shocks. The wireless and self-organising character of this sensor network is of great value to do this job in a shorter time and with less manpower compared to using common seismic stations as we could see during the L'Aquila earthquake, where SOSEWIN was used to monitor damaged buildings. We present here the graphical front-end of SOSEWIN in its usage for different scenarios. It belongs to a management infrastructure based on GIS and database technologies and therefore coupling with existing infrastructures should be simplified. Connecting the domain expert’s laptop running the management software with a SOSEWIN may be fulfilled via any arbitrary node in the network (on-site access) or via a gateway node from a remote location using the internet. The scenarios focus on the needs of certain domain experts (seismologists or maybe engineers) and include the planning of a network installation, support during the installation process and testing of this installation. Another scenario mentions monitoring aspects of an already installed SOSEWIN and finally a scenario deals with the visualization of the alarming protocol detecting an earthquake event and issuing an early warning.

A WWW-based information system on resistance of bacteria to antibiotics.

PubMed

Schindler, J; Schindler, Z; Schindler, J

1998-01-01

The information system on resistance of bacteria to antibiotics (WARN--World Antibiotic Resistance Network) is implemented as a WWW server at Charles University in Prague (http:/(/)www.warn.cas.cz). Its main goal is to give information about problems of antibiotic resistance of bacteria and to process data on isolated strains. The WARN web-site contains six main topics. Four of them form the core of the system: Topics of Interest bring information on selected timely topics in antibiotic resistance--pneumococci, staphylococci, beta-lactamases, glycopeptide--and aminoglycoside resistance. Global Monitor brings references and reports on resistance in the world as well as recommended method of surveillance. The topic Data contains raw data on strains in particular countries and hospitals. Data can be viewed in their original form as a list of records (strains) or processed to provide statistics about the resistance rates in the selected country or hospital respectively. The topic Search allows one to search for one or several terms in the whole document. Counts of accessed pages show, that there is a standing demand for information about the serious problems of antibiotic therapy of infectious diseases.

Real-Time Communication Support for Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks †.

PubMed

Santos, Rodrigo; Orozco, Javier; Micheletto, Matias; Ochoa, Sergio F; Meseguer, Roc; Millan, Pere; Molina, And Carlos

2017-07-14

Underwater sensor networks represent an important and promising field of research due to the large diversity of underwater ubiquitous applications that can be supported by these networks, e.g., systems that deliver tsunami and oil spill warnings, or monitor submarine ecosystems. Most of these monitoring and warning systems require real-time communication in wide area networks that have a low density of nodes. The underwater communication medium involved in these networks is very harsh and imposes strong restrictions to the communication process. In this scenario, the real-time transmission of information is done mainly using acoustic signals, since the network nodes are not physically close. The features of the communication scenario and the requirements of the communication process represent major challenges for designers of both, communication protocols and monitoring and warning systems. The lack of models to represent these networks is the main stumbling block for the proliferation of underwater ubiquitous systems. This paper presents a real-time communication model for underwater acoustic sensor networks (UW-ASN) that are designed to cover wide areas with a low density of nodes, using any-to-any communication. This model is analytic, considers two solution approaches for scheduling the real-time messages, and provides a time-constraint analysis for the network performance. Using this model, the designers of protocols and underwater ubiquitous systems can quickly prototype and evaluate their solutions in an evolving way, in order to determine the best solution to the problem being addressed. The suitability of the proposal is illustrated with a case study that shows the performance of a UW-ASN under several initial conditions. This is the first analytic model for representing real-time communication in this type of network, and therefore, it opens the door for the development of underwater ubiquitous systems for several application scenarios.

Real-Time Communication Support for Underwater Acoustic Sensor Networks †

PubMed Central

Santos, Rodrigo; Orozco, Javier; Micheletto, Matias

2017-01-01

Underwater sensor networks represent an important and promising field of research due to the large diversity of underwater ubiquitous applications that can be supported by these networks, e.g., systems that deliver tsunami and oil spill warnings, or monitor submarine ecosystems. Most of these monitoring and warning systems require real-time communication in wide area networks that have a low density of nodes. The underwater communication medium involved in these networks is very harsh and imposes strong restrictions to the communication process. In this scenario, the real-time transmission of information is done mainly using acoustic signals, since the network nodes are not physically close. The features of the communication scenario and the requirements of the communication process represent major challenges for designers of both, communication protocols and monitoring and warning systems. The lack of models to represent these networks is the main stumbling block for the proliferation of underwater ubiquitous systems. This paper presents a real-time communication model for underwater acoustic sensor networks (UW-ASN) that are designed to cover wide areas with a low density of nodes, using any-to-any communication. This model is analytic, considers two solution approaches for scheduling the real-time messages, and provides a time-constraint analysis for the network performance. Using this model, the designers of protocols and underwater ubiquitous systems can quickly prototype and evaluate their solutions in an evolving way, in order to determine the best solution to the problem being addressed. The suitability of the proposal is illustrated with a case study that shows the performance of a UW-ASN under several initial conditions. This is the first analytic model for representing real-time communication in this type of network, and therefore, it opens the door for the development of underwater ubiquitous systems for several application scenarios. PMID:28708093

Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

2017-05-01

Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

2016-06-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

Introduction of Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System based on Real-time Water Information Using ICT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y., II; Kim, H. S.; Chun, G.

2016-12-01

There were severe damages such as restriction on water supply caused by continuous drought from 2014 to 2015 in South Korea. Through this drought event, government of South Korea decided to establish National Drought Information Analysis Center in K-water(Korea Water Resources Corporation) and introduce a national drought monitoring and early warning system to mitigate those damages. Drought index such as SPI(Standard Precipitation Index), PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) and SMI(Soil Moisture Index) etc. have been developed and are widely used to provide drought information in many countries. However, drought indexes are not appropriate for drought monitoring and early warning in civilized countries with high population density such as South Korea because it could not consider complicated water supply network. For the national drought monitoring and forecasting of South Korea, `Drought Information Analysis System' (D.I.A.S) which is based on the real time data(storage, flowrate, waterlevel etc.) was developed. Based on its advanced methodology, `DIAS' is changing the paradigm of drought monitoring and early warning systems. Because `D.I.A.S' contains the information of water supply network from water sources to the people across the nation and provides drought information considering the real-time hydrological conditions of each and every water source. For instance, in case the water level of a specific dam declines to predetermined level of caution, `D.I.A.S' will notify people who uses the dam as a source of residential or industrial water. It is expected to provide credible drought monitoring and forecasting information with a strong relationship between drought information and the feelings of people rely on water users by `D.I.A.S'.

Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

2018-01-01

Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

CISN ShakeAlert: Faster Warning Information Through Multiple Threshold Event Detection in the Virtual Seismologist (VS) Early Warning Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cua, G. B.; Fischer, M.; Caprio, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Cisn Earthquake Early Warning Project Team

2010-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm is one of 3 EEW approaches being incorporated into the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The VS algorithm, implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich, is a Bayesian approach to EEW, wherein the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likehihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS codes have been running in real-time at the Southern California Seismic Network since July 2008, and at the Northern California Seismic Network since February 2009. We discuss recent enhancements to the VS EEW algorithm that are being integrated into CISN ShakeAlert. We developed and continue to test a multiple-threshold event detection scheme, which uses different association / location approaches depending on the peak amplitudes associated with an incoming P pick. With this scheme, an event with sufficiently high initial amplitudes can be declared on the basis of a single station, maximizing warning times for damaging events for which EEW is most relevant. Smaller, non-damaging events, which will have lower initial amplitudes, will require more picks to initiate an event declaration, with the goal of reducing false alarms. This transforms the VS codes from a regional EEW approach reliant on traditional location estimation (and the requirement of at least 4 picks as implemented by the Binder Earthworm phase associator) into an on-site/regional approach capable of providing a continuously evolving stream of EEW information starting from the first P-detection. Real-time and offline analysis on Swiss and California waveform datasets indicate that the multiple-threshold approach is faster and more reliable for larger events than the earlier version of the VS codes. In addition, we provide evolutionary estimates of the probability of false alarms (PFA), which is an envisioned output stream of the CISN ShakeAlert system. The real-time decision-making approach envisioned for CISN ShakeAlert users, where users specify a threshhold PFA in addition to thresholds on peak ground motion estimates, has the potential to increase the available warning time for users with high tolerance to false alarms without compromising the needs of users with lower tolerances to false alarms.

The Mexican Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Mexicana)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdes-Gonzales, C. M.; Arreola-Manzano, J.; Castelan-Pescina, G.; Alonso-Rivera, P.; Saldivar-Rangel, M. A.; Rodriguez-Arteaga, O. O.; Lopez-Lena-Villasana, R.

2014-12-01

The Mexican Seismic Network (Red Sísmica Mexicana) was created to give sufficient information and opportune to make decisions in order to mitigate seismic and tsunami risk. This was a Mexican government initiative headed by CENAPRED (National Disaster Prevention Center) who made an effort to integrated academic institutions and civil agencies to work together through a collaboration agreement. This network is supported by Universidad National Autónoma de México (UNAM) and its seismic networks (Broad Band and Strong Motion), the Centro de Instrumentación y Registro Sismico (CIRES) with its Earthquake Early Warning System that covers the Guerrero Gap and Oaxaca earthquakes, The Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE) with the support of its expertise in tsunami observation and the Secretaria de Marina (SEMAR) to monitor the sea level and operate the Mexican Tsunami Warning Center. The institutions involved in this scope have the compromise to interchange and share the data and advice to the Civil Protection authorities.

An Operational Perspective of Total Lightning Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nadler, David J.; Darden, Christopher B.; Stano, Geoffrey; Buechler, Dennis E.

2009-01-01

The close and productive collaborations between the NWS Warning and Forecast Office, the Short Term Prediction and Research Transition Center at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville have provided a unique opportunity for science sharing and technology transfer. One significant technology transfer that has provided immediate benefits to NWS forecast and warning operations is the use of data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array. This network consists of ten VHF receivers deployed across northern Alabama and a base station located at the National Space Science and Technology Center. Preliminary investigations done at WFO Huntsville, along with other similar total lightning networks across the country, have shown distinct correlations between the time rate-of-change of total lightning and trends in intensity/severity of the parent convective cell. Since May 2003 when WFO HUN began receiving these data - in conjunction with other more traditional remotely sensed data (radar, satellite, and surface observations) -- have improved the situational awareness of the WFO staff. The use of total lightning information, either from current ground based systems or future space borne instrumentation, may substantially contribute to the NWS mission, by enhancing severe weather warning and decision-making processes. Operational use of the data has been maximized at WFO Huntsville through a process that includes forecaster training, product implementation, and post event analysis and assessments. Since receiving these data, over 50 surveys have been completed highlighting the use of total lightning information during significant events across the Tennessee Valley. In addition, around 150 specific cases of interest have been archived for collaborative post storm analysis. From these datasets, detailed trending information from radar and total lightning can be compared to corresponding damage reports. This presentation will emphasize the effective use of total lightning information in warning decision making along with best practices for implementation of new technologies into operations.

Multiple-Threshold Event Detection and Other Enhancements to the Virtual Seismologist (VS) Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, M.; Caprio, M.; Cua, G. B.; Heaton, T. H.; Clinton, J. F.; Wiemer, S.

2009-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to earthquake early warning (EEW) being implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich. The application of Bayes’ theorem in earthquake early warning states that the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likelihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS algorithm was one of three EEW algorithms involved in the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) real-time EEW testing and performance evaluation effort. Its compelling real-time performance in California over the last three years has led to its inclusion in the new USGS-funded effort to develop key components of CISN ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. A significant portion of VS code development was supported by the SAFER EEW project in Europe. We discuss recent enhancements to the VS EEW algorithm. We developed and continue to test a multiple-threshold event detection scheme, which uses different association / location approaches depending on the peak amplitudes associated with an incoming P pick. With this scheme, an event with sufficiently high initial amplitudes can be declared on the basis of a single station, maximizing warning times for damaging events for which EEW is most relevant. Smaller, non-damaging events, which will have lower initial amplitudes, will require more picks to be declared an event to reduce false alarms. This transforms the VS codes from a regional EEW approach reliant on traditional location estimation (and it requirement of at least 4 picks as implemented by the Binder Earthworm phase associator) to a hybrid on-site/regional approach capable of providing a continuously evolving stream of EEW information starting from the first P-detection. Offline analysis on Swiss and California waveform datasets indicate that the multiple-threshold approach is faster and more reliable for larger events than the earlier version of the VS codes. This multiple-threshold approach is well-suited for implementation on a wide range of devices, from embedded processor systems installed at a seismic stations, to small autonomous networks for local warnings, to large-scale regional networks such as the CISN. In addition, we quantify the influence of systematic use of prior information and Vs30-based corrections for site amplification on VS magnitude estimation performance, and describe how components of the VS algorithm will be integrated into non-EEW standard network processing procedures at CHNet, the national broadband / strong motion network in Switzerland. These enhancements to the VS codes will be transitioned from off-line to real-time testing at CHNet in Europe in the coming months, and will be incorporated into the development of key components of CISN ShakeAlert prototype system in California.

Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

2012-12-01

A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will be responsible for reporting and informing the early warning. Therefore, a community empowerment and encouragement program through public education was conducted. Strategy and approach for this program was formulated based on the socio-engineering investigation. Finally, the results of technical and social engineering investigations, have been elaborated to further enhance the performance of expert system of the Smart Grid, in order to completely establish this system as an innovative and effective tool for the landslide monitoring and early warning in tropical-developing country.

Puerto Rico Seismic Network Operations During and After the Hurricane Maria: Response, Continuity of Operations, and Experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Baez-Sanchez, G.; Huerfano, V.; Lopez, A. M.; Lugo, J.

2017-12-01

The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is an integral part of earthquake and tsunami monitoring in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The PRSN conducts scientific research as part of the University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez, conducts the earthquake monitoring for the region, runs extensive earthquake and tsunami education and outreach programs, and acts as a Tsunami Warning Focal Point Alternate for Puerto Rico. During and in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Maria, the PRSN duties and responsibilities evolved from a seismic network to a major information and communications center for the western side of Puerto Rico. Hurricane Maria effectively destroyed most communications on island, critically between the eastern side of the island where Puerto Rico's Emergency Management's (PREMA) main office and the National Weather Service (NWS) is based and the western side of the island. Additionally, many local emergency management agencies on the western side of the island lost a satellite based emergency management information system called EMWIN which provides critical tsunami and weather information. PRSN's EMWIN system remained functional and consequently via this system and radio communications PRSN became the only information source for NWS warnings and bulletins, tsunami alerts, and earthquake information for western Puerto Rico. Additionally, given the functional radio and geographic location of the PRSN, the network became a critical communications relay for local emergency management. Here we will present the PRSN response in relation to Hurricane Maria including the activation of the PRSN devolution plan, adoption of duties, experiences and lessons learned for continuity of operations and adoption of responsibilities during future catastrophic events.

[Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

2011-01-01

To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

Onsite Portable Alarm System - Its Merit and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saita, J.; Sato, T.; Nakamura, Y.

2007-12-01

Recently an existence of the earthquake early warning system (EEWS) becomes popular. In general, the EEWS will be installed in a fixed observation site and it may consist of several separated components such as a sensing portion, A/D converter, an information processing potion and so on. The processed information for warning may be transmitted to network via fixed communication line, and therefore this kind of alarm system is called as Network Alarm System. On the other hand, after the severe earthquake damage, it is very important to save the disaster victims immediately. These rescue staffs are also under the risk of aftershocks and need a local alarm not depending on the network, so this kind of alarm can be called as Onsite Alarm. But the common early warning system is too complex to set onsite temporary, and even if possible to install, the alarm is too late to receive at the epicentral area. However, the new generation earthquake early warning system FREQL can issue the P wave alarm by minimum 0.2 seconds after P wave detection. And FREQL is characterized as the unique all-in-one seismometer with power unit. At the time of the 2004 Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake, a land slide attacked a car just passing. A hyper rescue team of Tokyo Fire Department pulled the survivor, one baby, from the land slide area. During their activity the rescue team was exposed to the risk of secondary hazards caused by the aftershocks. It was clear that it is necessary to use a portable warning system to issue the onsite P wave alarm. Because FREQL was originally developed as portable equipment, Tokyo Fire Department asked us to modify it to the portable equipment with the loud sound and the light signal. In this moment, this portable FREQL has equipped in nation wide. When the hyper rescue team of Tokyo Fire Department was sent to Pakistan as a task force for rescue work of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, the portable FREQL was used as important onsite portable warning system and P wave alarms was actually issued by three times during the rescue work. Although this is one example for the actual application of portable onsite alarm, it is possible to apply the other field as the construction field. In this presentation, Portable Onsite Alarm is discussed from views of its necessity and application.

MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

PubMed Central

Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

2016-01-01

Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics. PMID:26933682

MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

PubMed

Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

2016-02-01

Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental information to increase the public's understanding of earthquake shaking and protective behaviors.

Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.

2008-12-01

In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin poses a challenge due to the lack of historic events. The probability and nature of potential sources along the offshore U.S./Canada region are not well understood. Warning/watch/advisory criteria are under review to improve TWC response. Primary tsunami warning contact points consist of NWS Weather Forecast Offices, state warning points, U.S. Coast Guard, and the military. These entities each have responsibility to propagate the message through specific channels. To help communities prepare for a tsunami warning, the NWS established the TsunamiReady program. TsunamiReady sets criteria for communities which include: reliable methods to receive TWC warnings, reliable methods to disseminate messages locally, pre-event planning, hazard/safe zones defined and public education. Once the criteria are met, the community can be recognized as TsunamiReady. A hypothetical event off the east coast is examined and a timeline given for TWC analysis and product issuance.

Hybrid neural network for density limit disruption prediction and avoidance on J-TEXT tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, W.; Hu, F. R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, Z. Y.; Zhao, X. Q.; Wang, X. L.; Shi, P.; Zhang, X. L.; Zhang, X. Q.; Zhou, Y. N.; Wei, Y. N.; Pan, Y.; J-TEXT team

2018-05-01

Increasing the plasma density is one of the key methods in achieving an efficient fusion reaction. High-density operation is one of the hot topics in tokamak plasmas. Density limit disruptions remain an important issue for safe operation. An effective density limit disruption prediction and avoidance system is the key to avoid density limit disruptions for long pulse steady state operations. An artificial neural network has been developed for the prediction of density limit disruptions on the J-TEXT tokamak. The neural network has been improved from a simple multi-layer design to a hybrid two-stage structure. The first stage is a custom network which uses time series diagnostics as inputs to predict plasma density, and the second stage is a three-layer feedforward neural network to predict the probability of density limit disruptions. It is found that hybrid neural network structure, combined with radiation profile information as an input can significantly improve the prediction performance, especially the average warning time ({{T}warn} ). In particular, the {{T}warn} is eight times better than that in previous work (Wang et al 2016 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 58 055014) (from 5 ms to 40 ms). The success rate for density limit disruptive shots is above 90%, while, the false alarm rate for other shots is below 10%. Based on the density limit disruption prediction system and the real-time density feedback control system, the on-line density limit disruption avoidance system has been implemented on the J-TEXT tokamak.

Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

2013-04-01

The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). TRIDEC focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application: The technical development is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards already applies to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services. This is a first step towards best practices and service lifecycles for Early Warning Centre IT service management, including Service Level Agreements (SLA) and Service Certification. While on a global scale the integration of TEWS progresses towards Systems of Systems (SoS), there is still an absence of accredited and reliable certifications for national TEWS or regional Tsunami Early Warning Systems of Systems (TEWSoS). Concepts for TEWS operations have already been published under the guidance of the IOC, and can now be complemented by the recent research advances concerning SoS architecture. Combined with feedback from the real world, such as the NEAMwave 2012 Tsunami exercise in the Mediterranean, this can serve as a starting point to formulate initial requirements for TEWS and TEWSoS certification: Certification activities will cover the establishment of new TEWS and TEWSoS, and also both maintenance and enhancement of existing TEWS/TEWSoS. While the IOC is expected to take a central role in the development of the certification strategy, it remains to be defined which bodies will actually conduct the certification process. Certification requirements and results are likely to become a valuable information source for various target groups, ranging from national policy decision makers, government agency planners, national and local government preparedness officials, TWC staff members, Disaster Responders, the media and the insurance industry.

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, S.; Villa, F.; Mojtahed, V.; Hegetschweiler, K. T.; Giupponi, C.

2015-10-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of: (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing Early Warning System, taking into account the reliability, lead-time and scope (i.e. coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event: about 75 % of fatalities, 25 % of injuries and 18 % of post-traumatic stress disorders could be avoided.

DS-MAC: differential service medium access control design for wireless medical information systems.

PubMed

Yuan, Xiaojing; Bagga, Sumegha; Shen, Jian; Balakrishnan, M; Benhaddou, D

2008-01-01

The integration of wireless networking technologies with medical information systems (telemedicine) have a significant impact on healthcare services provided to our society. Applications of telemedicine range from personalized medicine to affordable healthcare for underserved population. Though wireless technologies and medical informatics are individually progressing rapidly, wireless networking for healthcare systems is still at a very premature stage. In this paper we first present our open architecture for medical information systems that integrates both wired and wireless networked data acquisition systems. We then present the implementation at the physical layer and differential service MAC design that adapts channel provisioning based on the information criticality. Performance evaluation using analytical modeling and simulation shows that our DS-MAC provides differentiated services for emergency, warning, and normal traffic.

Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

2018-05-01

Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

MyShake - A smartphone app to detect earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

2015-12-01

We designed an android app that harnesses the accelerometers in personal smartphones to record earthquake-shaking data for research, hazard information and warnings. The app has the function to distinguish earthquake shakings from daily human activities based on the different patterns behind the movements. It also can be triggered by the traditional earthquake early warning (EEW) system to record for a certain amount of time to collect earthquake data. When the app is triggered by the earthquake-like movements, it sends the trigger information back to our server which contains time and location of the trigger, at the same time, it stores the waveform data on local phone first, and upload to our server later. Trigger information from multiple phones will be processed in real time on the server to find the coherent signal to confirm the earthquakes. Therefore, the app provides the basis to form a smartphone seismic network that can detect earthquake and even provide warnings. A planned public roll-out of MyShake could collect millions of seismic recordings for large earthquakes in many regions around the world.

Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

PubMed

Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

2014-01-01

Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

2013-11-30

Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geo-Spatial Social Network Analysis of Social Media to Mitigate Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carley, K. M.

2017-12-01

Understanding the spatial layout of human activity can afford a better understanding many phenomena - such as local cultural, the spread of ideas, and the scope of a disaster. Today, social media is one of the key sensors for acquiring information on socio-cultural activity, some with cues as to the geo-location. We ask, What can be learned by putting such data on maps? For example, are people who chat on line more likely to be near each other? Can Twitter data support disaster planning or early warning? In this talk, such issues are examined using data collected via Twitter and analyzed using ORA. ORA is a network analysis and visualization system. It supports not just social networks (who is interacting with whom), but also high dimensional networks with many types of nodes (e.g. people, organizations, resources, activities …) and relations, geo-spatial network analysis, dynamic network analysis, & geo-temporal analysis. Using ORA lessons learned from five case studies are considered: Arab Spring, Tsunami warning in Padang Indonesia, Twitter around Fukushima in Japan, Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), & regional conflict. Using Padang Indonesia data, we characterize the strengths and limitations of social media data to support disaster planning & early warning, identify at risk areas & issues of concern, and estimate where people are and which areas are impacted. Using Fukushima Japanese data, social media is used to estimate geo-spatial regularities in movement and communication that can inform disaster response and risk estimation. Using Arab Spring data, we find that the spread of bots & extremists varies by country and time, to the extent that using twitter to understand who is important or what ideas are critical can be compromised. Bots and extremists can exploit disaster messaging to create havoc and facilitate criminal activity e.g. human trafficking. Event discovery mechanisms support isolating geo-epi-centers for key events become crucial. Spatial inference enables improved country, and city identification. Geo-network analytics with and without these inferences reveal that explicitly geo-tagged data may not be representative and that improved location estimation provides better insight into the social condition. These results demonstrate the value of these technique to mitigate the social impact of disasters.

Recognising and responding to suicidal crisis within family and social networks: qualitative study.

PubMed

Owens, Christabel; Owen, Gareth; Belam, Judith; Lloyd, Keith; Rapport, Frances; Donovan, Jenny; Lambert, Helen

2011-10-18

To shed light on the difficulties faced by relatives, friends, and colleagues in interpreting signs of suicidality and deciding whether and how to intervene. Qualitative study of completed suicides, based on in-depth interviews with multiple informants. London, southwest England, and south Wales. 31 lay informants (one to five for each case), including parents, partners, siblings, friends, and colleagues of 14 cases of suicide in which the deceased was aged 18-34 and was not in contact with secondary mental health services. Informants described both intellectual and emotional barriers to awareness and intervention within the family and social network. They reported that signs and communications of distress were often oblique and difficult to interpret, that they may have disregarded warning signals and focused instead on positive signs, and that, even when they were aware that something was seriously wrong, taking any action at all involved considerable personal risks. As the suicidal process unfolds, significant others are faced with a highly complex task. Their proximity to the suicidal person and their emotional investment in the relationship make it difficult for them to see what is happening, to say anything to the person or to other members of the network, or to seek help outside the network. Efforts to strengthen the capacity of lay people to play a role in preventing suicide are urgently needed and should be informed by a thorough understanding of these difficulties. They should highlight the ambiguous nature of warning signs and should focus on helping people to acknowledge and overcome their fears about intervening.

Technical note: Efficient online source identification algorithm for integration within a contamination event management system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deuerlein, Jochen; Meyer-Harries, Lea; Guth, Nicolai

2017-07-01

Drinking water distribution networks are part of critical infrastructures and are exposed to a number of different risks. One of them is the risk of unintended or deliberate contamination of the drinking water within the pipe network. Over the past decade research has focused on the development of new sensors that are able to detect malicious substances in the network and early warning systems for contamination. In addition to the optimal placement of sensors, the automatic identification of the source of a contamination is an important component of an early warning and event management system for security enhancement of water supply networks. Many publications deal with the algorithmic development; however, only little information exists about the integration within a comprehensive real-time event detection and management system. In the following the analytical solution and the software implementation of a real-time source identification module and its integration within a web-based event management system are described. The development was part of the SAFEWATER project, which was funded under FP 7 of the European Commission.

Testing the Behavioral Interaction and Integration of Attentional Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Jin; Gu, Xiaosi; Guise, Kevin G.; Liu, Xun; Fossella, John; Wang, Hongbin; Posner, Michael I.

2009-01-01

One current conceptualization of attention subdivides it into functions of alerting, orienting, and executive control. Alerting describes the function of tonically maintaining the alert state and phasically responding to a warning signal. Automatic and voluntary orienting are involved in the selection of information among multiple sensory inputs.…

78 FR 18814 - Amendment to the Export Administration Regulations: List of Items Classified Under Export Control...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-28

... RIN 0694-AF73. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Elizabeth Sangine, Director, Chemical and Biological... detection, identification, warning or monitoring of biological agents that is subject to the licensing... approved collections: (1) The Simplified Network Application Processing + System (control number 0694-0088...

Club Drugs. The DAWN Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (DHHS/PHS), Rockville, MD. Office of Applied Studies.

This report was prepared in response to requests from the media, law enforcement, and community leaders for information about club drugs. By being able to utilize statistics from hospital emergency departments and by compiling statistics on drug-related deaths, the Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is able to alert parents, educators, and others…

Intravehicular, Short- and Long-Range Communication Information Fusion for Providing Safe Speed Warnings

PubMed Central

Jiménez, Felipe; Naranjo, Jose Eugenio; Serradilla, Francisco; Pérez, Elisa; Hernández, María Jose; Ruiz, Trinidad; Anaya, José Javier; Díaz, Alberto

2016-01-01

Inappropriate speed is a relevant concurrent factor in many traffic accidents. Moreover, in recent years, traffic accidents numbers in Spain have fallen sharply, but this reduction has not been so significant on single carriageway roads. These infrastructures have less equipment than high-capacity roads, therefore measures to reduce accidents on them should be implemented in vehicles. This article describes the development and analysis of the impact on the driver of a warning system for the safe speed on each road section in terms of geometry, the presence of traffic jams, weather conditions, type of vehicle and actual driving conditions. This system is based on an application for smartphones and includes knowledge of the vehicle position via Ground Positioning System (GPS), access to intravehicular information from onboard sensors through the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus, vehicle data entry by the driver, access to roadside information (short-range communications) and access to a centralized server with information about the road in the current and following sections of the route (long-range communications). Using this information, the system calculates the safe speed, recommends the appropriate speed in advance in the following sections and provides warnings to the driver. Finally, data are sent from vehicles to a server to generate new information to disseminate to other users or to supervise drivers’ behaviour. Tests in a driving simulator have been used to define the system warnings and Human Machine Interface (HMI) and final tests have been performed on real roads in order to analyze the effect of the system on driver behavior. PMID:26805839

Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

PubMed Central

Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan

2014-01-01

Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning. PMID:24600323

CISN ShakeAlert: Using early warnings for earthquakes in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinci, M.; Hellweg, M.; Jones, L. M.; Khainovski, O.; Schwartz, K.; Lehrer, D.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2009-12-01

Educated users who have developed response plans and procedures are just as important for an earthquake early warning (EEW) system as are the algorithms and computers that process the data and produce the warnings. In Japan, for example, the implementation of the EEW system which now provides advanced alerts of ground shaking included intense outreach efforts to both institutional and individual recipients. Alerts are now used in automatic control systems that stop trains, place sensitive equipment in safe mode and isolate hazards while the public takes cover. In California, the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is now developing and implementing components of a prototype system for EEW, ShakeAlert. As this processing system is developed, we invite a suite of perspective users from critical industries and institutions throughout California to partner with us in developing useful ShakeAlert products and procedures. At the same time, we will support their efforts to determine and implement appropriate responses to an early warning of earthquake shaking. As a first step, in a collaboration with BART, we have developed a basic system allowing BART’s operation center to receive realtime ground shaking information from more than 150 seismic stations operating in the San Francisco Bay Area. BART engineers are implementing a display system for this information. Later phases will include the development of improved response procedures utilizing this information. We plan to continue this collaboration to include more sophisticated information from the prototype CISN ShakeAlert system.

An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

2009-04-01

Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords: groundwater pollution, early warning, aquifer vulnerability, pollution load, pollution risk, ComGIS

The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.

2010-12-01

In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.

The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdi, Richard J.; Lotspeich, R. Russell; Robbins, Jeanne C.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Mullaney, John R.; Massey, Andrew J.; Banks, William S.; Roland, Mark A.; Jenter, Harry L.; Peppler, Marie C.; Suro, Thomas P.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Nardi, Mark R.

2017-06-20

After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities.As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

Gender, Social Networks, and Stroke Preparedness in the Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment Study.

PubMed

Madsen, Tracy E; Roberts, Eric T; Kuczynski, Heather; Goldmann, Emily; Parikh, Nina S; Boden-Albala, Bernadette

2017-12-01

The study aimed to investigate the effect of gender on the association between social networks and stroke preparedness as measured by emergency department (ED) arrival within 3 hours of symptom onset. As part of the Stroke Warning Information and Faster Treatment study, baseline data on demographics, social networks, and time to ED arrival were collected from 1193 prospectively enrolled stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients at Columbia University Medical Center. Logistic regression was conducted with arrival to the ED ≤3 hours as the outcome, social network characteristics as explanatory variables, and gender as a potential effect modifier. Men who lived alone or were divorced were significantly less likely to arrive ≤3 hours than men who lived with a spouse (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: .31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: .15-0.64) or were married (aOR: .45, 95% CI: .23-0.86). Among women, those who lived alone or were divorced had similar odds of arriving ≤3 hours compared with those who lived with a spouse (aOR: 1.25, 95% CI: .63-2.49) or were married (aOR: .73, 95% CI: .4-1.35). In patients with stroke/TIA, living with someone or being married improved time to arrival in men only. Behavioral interventions to improve stroke preparedness should incorporate gender differences in how social networks affect arrival times. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A New Strategy for Analyzing Time-Series Data Using Dynamic Networks: Identifying Prospective Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PubMed

Huang, Xin; Zeng, Jun; Zhou, Lina; Hu, Chunxiu; Yin, Peiyuan; Lin, Xiaohui

2016-08-31

Time-series metabolomics studies can provide insight into the dynamics of disease development and facilitate the discovery of prospective biomarkers. To improve the performance of early risk identification, a new strategy for analyzing time-series data based on dynamic networks (ATSD-DN) in a systematic time dimension is proposed. In ATSD-DN, the non-overlapping ratio was applied to measure the changes in feature ratios during the process of disease development and to construct dynamic networks. Dynamic concentration analysis and network topological structure analysis were performed to extract early warning information. This strategy was applied to the study of time-series lipidomics data from a stepwise hepatocarcinogenesis rat model. A ratio of lyso-phosphatidylcholine (LPC) 18:1/free fatty acid (FFA) 20:5 was identified as the potential biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It can be used to classify HCC and non-HCC rats, and the area under the curve values in the discovery and external validation sets were 0.980 and 0.972, respectively. This strategy was also compared with a weighted relative difference accumulation algorithm (wRDA), multivariate empirical Bayes statistics (MEBA) and support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE). The better performance of ATSD-DN suggests its potential for a more complete presentation of time-series changes and effective extraction of early warning information.

A New Strategy for Analyzing Time-Series Data Using Dynamic Networks: Identifying Prospective Biomarkers of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xin; Zeng, Jun; Zhou, Lina; Hu, Chunxiu; Yin, Peiyuan; Lin, Xiaohui

2016-08-01

Time-series metabolomics studies can provide insight into the dynamics of disease development and facilitate the discovery of prospective biomarkers. To improve the performance of early risk identification, a new strategy for analyzing time-series data based on dynamic networks (ATSD-DN) in a systematic time dimension is proposed. In ATSD-DN, the non-overlapping ratio was applied to measure the changes in feature ratios during the process of disease development and to construct dynamic networks. Dynamic concentration analysis and network topological structure analysis were performed to extract early warning information. This strategy was applied to the study of time-series lipidomics data from a stepwise hepatocarcinogenesis rat model. A ratio of lyso-phosphatidylcholine (LPC) 18:1/free fatty acid (FFA) 20:5 was identified as the potential biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It can be used to classify HCC and non-HCC rats, and the area under the curve values in the discovery and external validation sets were 0.980 and 0.972, respectively. This strategy was also compared with a weighted relative difference accumulation algorithm (wRDA), multivariate empirical Bayes statistics (MEBA) and support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE). The better performance of ATSD-DN suggests its potential for a more complete presentation of time-series changes and effective extraction of early warning information.

DRUG ABUSE WARNING NETWORK (DAWN) DATABASE

EPA Science Inventory

The Drug Abuse Warning Network (DAWN) is an ongoing drug abuse data collection system sponsored by SAMHSA's Office of Applied Studies. DAWN collects data from: (1) hospital emergency departments (EDs) and (2) medical examiners (MEs). The DAWN ED component relies on a nationally r...

Technical report on prototype intelligent network flow optimization (INFLO) dynamic speed harmonization and queue warning.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

This Technical Report on Prototype Intelligent Network Flow Optimization (INFLO) Dynamic Speed Harmonization and Queue Warning is the final report for the project. It describes the prototyping, acceptance testing and small-scale demonstration of the ...

A topology visualization early warning distribution algorithm for large-scale network security incidents.

PubMed

He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

2013-01-01

It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

An Exploration of Cyberspace Security R&D Investment Strategies for DARPA: "The Day After. . . in Cyberspace II",

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-01-01

Automated Teller Machine networks malfunction in Georgia 2000 May 20 CNN off air for 12 minutes; issues special report 2000 May 20 worm...password combinations, social security and credit card numbers, account information, health status, and innumerable other sensitive information...as follows: TW/AA Issues Recommended Technical Response Possible Implementation Obstacles 1. (re Tactical Warning) • Place automated software

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

2011-01-01

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

2012-12-01

The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All technical development in TRIDEC is based on mature system architecture models and industry standards. The use of standards applies also to the operation of individual TRIDEC reference installations and their interlinking into an integrated service infrastructure for supranational warning services: A set of best practices for IT service management is used to align the TEWS software services with the requirements by the Early Warning Centre management by defining Service Level Agreements (SLA) and ensuring appliance. For this, the concept of service lifecycles is adapted for the TEWS domain, which is laid out in the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL) by the United Kingdom's Office of Government Commerce (OGC). The cyclic procedures, tasks and checklists described by ITIL are used to establish a baseline to plan, implement, and maintain TEWS service components in the long run. This allows to ensure compliance with given international TEWS standards and to measure improvement of the provided services against a gold-standard.

CISN ShakeAlert: Accounting for site amplification effects and quantifying time and spatial dependence of uncertainty estimates in the Virtual Seismologist earthquake early warning algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caprio, M.; Cua, G. B.; Wiemer, S.; Fischer, M.; Heaton, T. H.; CISN EEW Team

2011-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm is one of 3 EEW approaches being incorporated into the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a prototype EEW system being tested in real-time in California. The VS algorithm, implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich, is a Bayesian approach to EEW, wherein the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likehihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS codes have been running in real-time at the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) since July 2008, and at the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) since February 2009. With the aim of improving the convergence of real-time VS magnitude estimates to network magnitudes, we evaluate various empirical and Vs30-based approaches to accounting for site amplification. Empirical station corrections for SCSN stations are derived from M>3.0 events from 2005 through 2009. We evaluate the performance of the various approaches using an independent 2010 dataset. In addition, we analyze real-time VS performance from 2008 to the present to quantify the time and spatial dependence of VS uncertainty estimates. We also summarize real-time VS performance for significant 2011 events in California. Improved magnitude and uncertainty estimates potentially increase the utility of EEW information for end-users, particularly those intending to automate damage-mitigating actions based on real-time information.

The Promise and Challenges of High Rate GNSS for Environmental Monitoring and Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John

2017-04-01

The decadal vision Global Geodetic Observing System recognizes the potential of high rate real time GNSS for environmental monitoring. The GGOS initiated a program to advance GNSS real time high rate measurements to augment seismic and other sensor systems for earthquake and tsunami early warning. High rate multi-GNSS networks can provide ionospheric tomography for the detection and tracking of land, ocean and atmospheric gravity waves that can provide coastal warning of tsunamis induced by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, severe weather and other catastrophic events. NASA has collaborated on a microsatellite constellation of GPS receivers to measure ocean surface roughness to improve severe storm tracking and a equatorial system of GPS occultation receivers to measure ionospheric and atmospheric dynamics. Systems such as these will be significantly enhanced by the availability of a four fold increase in GNSS satellite systems with new and enhanced signal structures and by the densification of regional multi-GNSS networks. These new GNSS capabilities will rely upon improved and cost effective communications infrastructure for a network of coordinated real time analysis centers with input to national warning systems. Most important, the implementation of these new real time GNSS capabilities will rely upon the broad international support for the sharing of real time GNSS much as is done in weather and seismic observing systems and as supported by the Committee of Experts on UN Global Geodetic Information Management (UNGGIM).

Focus Upon Implementing the GGOS Decadal Vision for Geohazards Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John; Stangl, Gunter

2017-04-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System of the IAG identified present and future roles for Geodesy in the development and well being of the global society. The GGOS is focused upon the development of infrastructure, information, analysis, and educational systems to advance the International Global Reference Frame, the International Celestial Reference System, the International Height Reference System, atmospheric dynamics, sea level change and geohazards monitoring. The geohazards initiative is guided by an eleven nation working group initially focused upon the development and integration of regional multi-GNSS networks and analysis systems for earthquake and tsunami early warning. The opportunities and challenges being addressed by the Geohazards working group include regional network design, algorithm development and implementation, communications, funding, and international agreements on data access. This presentation will discuss in further detail these opportunities and challenges for the GGOS focus upon earthquake and tsunami early warning.

Real-time decision support systems: the famine early warning system network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Verdin, James P.

2010-01-01

A multi-institutional partnership, the US Agency for International Development’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides routine monitoring of climatic, agricultural, market, and socioeconomic conditions in over 20 countries. FEWS NET supports and informs disaster relief decisions that impact millions of people and involve billions of dollars. In this chapter, we focus on some of FEWS NET’s hydrologic monitoring tools, with a specific emphasis on combining “low frequency” and “high frequency” assessment tools. Low frequency assessment tools, tied to water and food balance estimates, enable us to evaluate and map long-term tendencies in food security. High frequency assessments are supported by agrohydrologic models driven by satellite rainfall estimates, such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). Focusing on eastern Africa, we suggest that both these high and low frequency approaches are necessary to capture the interaction of slow variations in vulnerability and the relatively rapid onset of climatic shocks.

An Emergency Packet Forwarding Scheme for V2V Communication Networks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This paper proposes an effective warning message forwarding scheme for cooperative collision avoidance. In an emergency situation, an emergency-detecting vehicle warns the neighbor vehicles via an emergency warning message. Since the transmission range is limited, the warning message is broadcast in a multihop manner. Broadcast packets lead two challenges to forward the warning message in the vehicular network: redundancy of warning messages and competition with nonemergency transmissions. In this paper, we study and address the two major challenges to achieve low latency in delivery of the warning message. To reduce the intervehicle latency and end-to-end latency, which cause chain collisions, we propose a two-way intelligent broadcasting method with an adaptable distance-dependent backoff algorithm. Considering locations of vehicles, the proposed algorithm controls the broadcast of a warning message to reduce redundant EWM messages and adaptively chooses the contention window to compete with nonemergency transmission. Via simulations, we show that our proposed algorithm reduces the probability of rear-end crashes by 70% compared to previous algorithms by reducing the intervehicle delay. We also show that the end-to-end propagation delay of the warning message is reduced by 55%. PMID:25054181

Automated information-analytical system for thunderstorm monitoring and early warning alarms using modern physical sensors and information technologies with elements of artificial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boldyreff, Anton S.; Bespalov, Dmitry A.; Adzhiev, Anatoly Kh.

2017-05-01

Methods of artificial intelligence are a good solution for weather phenomena forecasting. They allow to process a large amount of diverse data. Recirculation Neural Networks is implemented in the paper for the system of thunderstorm events prediction. Large amounts of experimental data from lightning sensors and electric field mills networks are received and analyzed. The average recognition accuracy of sensor signals is calculated. It is shown that Recirculation Neural Networks is a promising solution in the forecasting of thunderstorms and weather phenomena, characterized by the high efficiency of the recognition elements of the sensor signals, allows to compress images and highlight their characteristic features for subsequent recognition.

A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

2017-01-01

A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

PubMed Central

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James P.

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa. PMID:28195575

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Verdin, James

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET’s operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications.

PubMed

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D; Verdin, James P

2017-02-14

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Krist; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peter, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James

2017-01-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, Amy; Arsenault, Kristi; Kumar, Sujay; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Peterson, Pete; Wang, Shugong; Funk, Chris; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Verdin, James P.

2017-02-01

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

An Automatic Weather Station Network for Low-Altitude Wind Shear Investigations

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-18

information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its contents or use thereof. 4 . ... . . . . . . . . . . . ... ° TECHNICAL REPORT...technical issues asso- ciated with unique FAA needs for weather information used by pilots, air traffic controllers and meteorologists. The weather radar...warnings be free of false alarms and be issued in a timely manner. During the summer of 1983, Lincoln began a long term study that places emphasis on

CISN ShakeAlert: Improving the Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning framework to provide faster, more robust warning information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, M.; Cua, G. B.; Wiemer, S.; Fischer, M.

2011-12-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method is a Bayesian approach to regional network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) that uses observed phase arrivals, ground motion amplitudes and selected prior information to estimate earthquake magnitude, location and origin time, and predict the distribution of peak ground motion throughout a region using envelope attenuation relationships. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California is an on-going effort of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zürich. VS is one of three EEW algorithms - the other two being ElarmS (Allen and Kanamori, 2003) and On-Site (Wu and Kanamori, 2005; Boese et al., 2008) - that form the basis of the California Integrated Seismic Network ShakeAlert system, a prototype end-to-end EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The current prototype version of VS in California requires picks at 4 stations to initiate an event declaration. On average, taking into account data latency, variable station distribution, and processing time, this initial estimate is available about 20 seconds after the earthquake origin time, corresponding to a blind zone of about 70 km around the epicenter which would receive no warning, but where it would be the most useful. To increase the available warning time, we want to produce EEW estimates faster (with less than 4 stations). However, working with less than 4 stations with our current approach would increase the number of false alerts, for which there is very little tolerance in a useful EEW system. We explore the use of back-azimuth estimations and the Voronoi-based concept of not-yet-arrived data for reducing false alerts of the earliest VS estimates. The concept of not-yet-arrived data was originally used to provide evolutionary location estimates in EEW (Horiuchi, 2005; Cua and Heaton, 2007; Satriano et al. 2008). However, it can also be applied in discriminating between earthquake and non-earthquake signals. For real earthquakes, the constraints on earthquake location from the not-yet-arrived data and the back-azimuth estimations are consistent with location constraints from the available picks. For non-earthquake signals, these different location constraints are in most cases inconsistent. We use archived event data from the Northern and Southern California Seismic Networks as well as archived continuous waveform data from where the current VS codes erroneously declared events to quantify how using a combination of pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints can reduce VS false alert rates while providing faster warning information. The consistency of the pick-based and not-yet-arrived data constraints are mapped into the VS likelihood parameter, which reflects the degree of believe that the signals come from a real earthquake. This approach contributes towards improving the robustness of the Virtual Seismologist Multiple Threshold Event Detection (VS-MTED), which allows for single-station event declarations, when signal amplitudes are large enough.

Storm-based Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities and Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, K. M.; Meyer, T.; Kingfield, D.

2017-12-01

A new cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning probability algorithm has been developed using machine-learning methods. With storm-based inputs of Earth Networks' in-cloud lightning, Vaisala's CG lightning, multi-radar/multi-sensor (MRMS) radar derived products including the Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) and Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and near storm environmental data including lapse rate and CAPE, a random forest algorithm was trained to produce probabilities of CG lightning up to one-hour in advance. As part of the Prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed in 2016 and 2017, National Weather Service forecasters were asked to use this CG lightning probability guidance to create rapidly updating probability grids and warnings for the threat of CG lightning for 0-60 minutes. The output from forecasters was shared with end-users, including emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists, as part of an integrated warning team.

Progress and lessons learned from water-quality monitoring networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Donna N.; Ludtke, Amy S.

2017-01-01

Stream-quality monitoring networks in the United States were initiated and expanded after passage of successive federal water-pollution control laws from 1948 to 1972. The first networks addressed information gaps on the extent and severity of stream pollution and served as early warning systems for spills. From 1965 to 1972, monitoring networks expanded to evaluate compliance with stream standards, track emerging issues, and assess water-quality status and trends. After 1972, concerns arose regarding the ability of monitoring networks to determine if water quality was getting better or worse and why. As a result, monitoring networks adopted a hydrologic systems approach targeted to key water-quality issues, accounted for human and natural factors affecting water quality, innovated new statistical methods, and introduced geographic information systems and models that predict water quality at unmeasured locations. Despite improvements, national-scale monitoring networks have declined over time. Only about 1%, or 217, of more than 36,000 US Geological Survey monitoring sites sampled from 1975 to 2014 have been operated throughout the four decades since passage of the 1972 Clean Water Act. Efforts to sustain monitoring networks are important because these networks have collected information crucial to the description of water-quality trends over time and are providing information against which to evaluate future trends.

Impacts assessment of dynamic speed harmonization with queue warning : task 3, impacts assessment report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

This report assesses the impacts of a prototype of Dynamic Speed Harmonization (SPD-HARM) with Queue Warning (Q-WARN), which are two component applications of the Intelligent Network Flow Optimization (INFLO) bundle. The assessment is based on an ext...

Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the U.S. Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning Systems Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Brickley, Elizabeth B

2012-01-01

The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods, and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. We analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000 to 2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices, and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large-scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data were used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10% of the time, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

2017-04-01

Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing scientific knowledge, capacity building and international cooperation.

Nanosensors-Cellphone Integration for Extended Chemical Sensing Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jing

2011-01-01

This poster is to present the development of a cellphone sensor network for extended chemical sensing. The nanosensors using carbon nanotubes and other nanostructures are used with low power and high sensitivity for chemical detection. The sensing module has been miniaturized to a small size that can plug in or clip on to a smartphone. The chemical information detected by the nanosensors are acquired by a smartphone and transmitted via cellphone 3g or WiFi network to an internet server. The whole integrated sensing system from sensor to cellphone to a cloud will provide an extended chemical sensing network that can cover nation wide and even cover global wide for early warning of a hazardous event.

Unsupervised user similarity mining in GSM sensor networks.

PubMed

Shad, Shafqat Ali; Chen, Enhong

2013-01-01

Mobility data has attracted the researchers for the past few years because of its rich context and spatiotemporal nature, where this information can be used for potential applications like early warning system, route prediction, traffic management, advertisement, social networking, and community finding. All the mentioned applications are based on mobility profile building and user trend analysis, where mobility profile building is done through significant places extraction, user's actual movement prediction, and context awareness. However, significant places extraction and user's actual movement prediction for mobility profile building are a trivial task. In this paper, we present the user similarity mining-based methodology through user mobility profile building by using the semantic tagging information provided by user and basic GSM network architecture properties based on unsupervised clustering approach. As the mobility information is in low-level raw form, our proposed methodology successfully converts it to a high-level meaningful information by using the cell-Id location information rather than previously used location capturing methods like GPS, Infrared, and Wifi for profile mining and user similarity mining.

Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

2017-10-01

A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

An Efficient Rapid Warning System For Earthquakes In The European-mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; di Giovambattista, R.; Tome, M.

Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to pro- vide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earth- quakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages (www.emsc-csem.org). A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean re- gion, potentially damaging earthquakes being defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or more. The warning system automatically issues a message to the duty seismolo- gist mobile phone and pager. The seismologist log in to the EMSC computers using a laptop PC and relocates the earthquake by processing together all information pro- vided by the networks. The new location and magnitude are then send, by fax, telex, and email, within one hour following the earthquake occurrence, to national and inter- national organisations whose activities are related to seismic risks, and to the EMSC members. The EMSC rapid warning system has been fully operational for more than 4 years. Its distributed architecture has proved to be an efficient and reliable way for the monitoring of potentially damaging earthquakes. Furthermore, if a major problem disrupts the operational system more than 30 minutes, the duty is taken, over either by the Instituto Geografico National in Spain or by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica in Italy. The EMSC operational centre, located at the premises of CEA / DASE in Bruyères le Châtel (France) operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Although EMSC focuses on the European-Mediterranean region, the rest of the world is monitored, but for increasing magnitudes as the distance from this region increases. It generates between 70 to 100 warning messages each year. The utility of this EMSC service is clearly demonstrated by its following among the public : EMSC email dissemination list has been subscribed by about 200 institutions or individuals and there have been, for example, more than 800 connections to our Web site in the 48 hours following 1 the M5.8 earthquake of the Aegean Sea (27/07/2001, alert sent 47 minutes after its occurrence). 2

An assessment of seismic monitoring in the United States; requirement for an Advanced National Seismic System

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1999-01-01

This report assesses the status, needs, and associated costs of seismic monitoring in the United States. It sets down the requirement for an effective, national seismic monitoring strategy and an advanced system linking national, regional, and urban monitoring networks. Modernized seismic monitoring can provide alerts of imminent strong earthquake shaking; rapid assessment of distribution and severity of earthquake shaking (for use in emergency response); warnings of a possible tsunami from an offshore earthquake; warnings of volcanic eruptions; information for correctly characterizing earthquake hazards and for improving building codes; and data on response of buildings and structures during earthquakes, for safe, cost-effective design, engineering, and construction practices in earthquake-prone regions.

A Distributed Architecture for Tsunami Early Warning and Collaborative Decision-support in Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moßgraber, J.; Middleton, S.; Hammitzsch, M.; Poslad, S.

2012-04-01

The presentation will describe work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on "Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises". The challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) are manifold and the success of a system depends crucially on the system's architecture. A modern warning system following a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and sub-systems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. In order to create an architecture that supports the whole spectrum of a modern, distributed and collaborative warning system one must deal with multiple challenges. Obviously, one cannot expect to tackle these challenges adequately with a monolithic system or with a single technology. Therefore, a system architecture providing the blueprints to implement the system-of-systems approach has to combine multiple technologies and architectural styles. At the bottom layer it has to reliably integrate a large set of conventional sensors, such as seismic sensors and sensor networks, buoys and tide gauges, and also innovative and unconventional sensors, such as streams of messages from social media services. At the top layer it has to support collaboration on high-level decision processes and facilitates information sharing between organizations. In between, the system has to process all data and integrate information on a semantic level in a timely manner. This complex communication follows an event-driven mechanism allowing events to be published, detected and consumed by various applications within the architecture. Therefore, at the upper layer the event-driven architecture (EDA) aspects are combined with principles of service-oriented architectures (SOA) using standards for communication and data exchange. The most prominent challenges on this layer include providing a framework for information integration on a syntactic and semantic level, leveraging distributed processing resources for a scalable data processing platform, and automating data processing and decision support workflows.

Development of SNS Stream Analysis Based on Forest Disaster Warning Information Service System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, J.; KIM, D.; Kang, M.; Woo, C.; Kim, D.; Seo, J.; Lee, C.; Yoon, H.; Heon, S.

2017-12-01

Forest disasters, such as landslides and wildfires, cause huge economic losses and casualties, and the cost of recovery is increasing every year. While forest disaster mitigation technologies have been focused on the development of prevention and response technologies, they are now required to evolve into evacuation and border evacuation, and to develop technologies fused with ICT. In this study, we analyze the SNS (Social Network Service) stream and implement a system to detect the message that the forest disaster occurred or the forest disaster, and search the keyword related to the forest disaster in advance in real time. It is possible to detect more accurate forest disaster messages by repeatedly learning the retrieved results using machine learning techniques. To do this, we designed and implemented a system based on Hadoop and Spark, a distributed parallel processing platform, to handle Twitter stream messages that open SNS. In order to develop the technology to notify the information of forest disaster risk, a linkage of technology such as CBS (Cell Broadcasting System) based on mobile communication, internet-based civil defense siren, SNS and the legal and institutional issues for applying these technologies are examined. And the protocol of the forest disaster warning information service system that can deliver the SNS analysis result was developed. As a result, it was possible to grasp real-time forest disaster situation by real-time big data analysis of SNS that occurred during forest disasters. In addition, we confirmed that it is possible to rapidly propagate alarm or warning according to the disaster situation by using the function of the forest disaster warning information notification service. However, the limitation of system application due to the restriction of opening and sharing of SNS data currently in service and the disclosure of personal information remains a problem to be solved in the future. Keyword : SNS stream, Big data, Machine learning techniques, CBS, Forest disaster warning information service system Acknowledgement : This research was supported by the Forestry Technology 2015 Forestry Technology Research and Development Project (Planning project).

A Multi-User Game-Theoretical Multipath Routing Protocol to Send Video-Warning Messages over Mobile Ad Hoc Networks.

PubMed

Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Igartua, Mónica Aguilar; de la Cruz Llopis, Luis J; Pallarès Segarra, Esteve; Tripp-Barba, Carolina; Urquiza-Aguiar, Luis; Forné, Jordi; Sanvicente Gargallo, Emilio

2015-04-17

The prevention of accidents is one of the most important goals of ad hoc networks in smart cities. When an accident happens, dynamic sensors (e.g., citizens with smart phones or tablets, smart vehicles and buses, etc.) could shoot a video clip of the accident and send it through the ad hoc network. With a video message, the level of seriousness of the accident could be much better evaluated by the authorities (e.g., health care units, police and ambulance drivers) rather than with just a simple text message. Besides, other citizens would be rapidly aware of the incident. In this way, smart dynamic sensors could participate in reporting a situation in the city using the ad hoc network so it would be possible to have a quick reaction warning citizens and emergency units. The deployment of an efficient routing protocol to manage video-warning messages in mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs) has important benefits by allowing a fast warning of the incident, which potentially can save lives. To contribute with this goal, we propose a multipath routing protocol to provide video-warning messages in MANETs using a novel game-theoretical approach. As a base for our work, we start from our previous work, where a 2-players game-theoretical routing protocol was proposed to provide video-streaming services over MANETs. In this article, we further generalize the analysis made for a general number of N players in the MANET. Simulations have been carried out to show the benefits of our proposal, taking into account the mobility of the nodes and the presence of interfering traffic. Finally, we also have tested our approach in a vehicular ad hoc network as an incipient start point to develop a novel proposal specifically designed for VANETs.

76 FR 24875 - Notice of Public Information Collection(s) Being Submitted for Review and Approval to the Office...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-03

...: 3060-1113. Title: Commercial Mobile Alert System (CMAS). Form No.: N/A. Type of Review: Revision of a..., Alert and Response Network (``WARN'') Act, including inter alia, a requirement that within 30 days of... the Commission indicating whether or not it intends to transmit emergency alerts as part of the...

Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

2016-09-30

The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than when using a regional network of seismometers. Given the current network, a single-station approach provides more warning for damaging earthquakes that occur close to the station, but it would have limited benefit compared to a fully implemented ShakeAlert system. For Honolulu, for example, the single-station approach provides an advantage over ShakeAlert only for earthquakes that occur in a narrow zone extending northeast and southwest of O‘ahu. Instrumentation and alarms associated with the single-station approach are typically maintained and assessed within the target facility, and thus no outside connectivity is required. A single-station approach, then, is unlikely to help broader populations beyond the individuals at the target facility, but they have the benefit of being commercially available for relatively little cost. The USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional seismic network responsible for locating and characterizing earthquakes across the State of Hawaii. During 2014 and 2015, HVO tested a network-based EEW algorithm within the current seismic network in order to assess the suitability for building a full EEW system. Using the current seismic instrumentation and processing setup at HVO, it is possible for a network approach to release an alarm a little more than 3 seconds after the earthquake is recorded on the fourth seismometer. Presently, earthquakes having M≥3 detected with the ElarmS algorithm have an average location error of approximately 4.5 km and an average magnitude error of -0.3 compared to the reviewed catalog locations from the HVO. Additional stations and upgrades to existing seismic stations would serve to improve solution precision and warning times and additional staffing would be required to provide support for a robust, network-based EEW system. For a critical facility on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as the telescopes atop Mauna Kea, one phased approach to mitigate losses could be to immediately install a single station system to establish some level of warning. Subsequently, supporting the implementation of a full network-based EEW system on the Island of Hawaiʻi would provide additional benefit in the form of improved warning times once the system is fully installed and operational, which may take several years. Distributed populations across the Hawaiian Islands, including those outside the major cities and far from the likely earthquake source areas, would likely only benefit from a network approach such as ShakeAlert to provide warnings of strong shaking.

Information Technologies, Health, and Globalization: Anyone Excluded?

PubMed Central

Parent, Florence; Parent, Marc

2001-01-01

Modern information technologies and worldwide communication through the Internet promise both universal access to information and the globalization of the medico-social network's modes of communication between doctors, laboratories, patients, and other players. The authors, specialists in public health and members of an association that aims to create opportunities for access to training in public health in developing countries, warn that the use of the term "globalization" ignores the reality of the "digital divide," that is, the fact that social inequalities may preclude the realization of this promise on a truly global scale. PMID:11720953

Information technologies, health, and "globalization": anyone excluded?

PubMed

Parent, F; Coppieters, Y; Parent, M

2001-01-01

Modern information technologies and worldwide communication through the Internet promise both universal access to information and the globalization of the medico-social network s modes of communication between doctors, laboratories, patients, and other players. The authors, specialists in public health and members of an association that aims to create opportunities for access to training in public health in developing countries, warn that the use of the term "globalization" ignores the reality of the "digital divide," that is, the fact that social inequalities may preclude the realization of this promise on a truly global scale.

Improving tractor safety warnings: readability is missing.

PubMed

Tebeaux, E

2010-07-01

Research on tractor safety has not focused on user manuals. This study focuses on tractor operator manuals, specifically safety warnings, selected from the files of the Tractor Test facility at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Analysis of many common warnings, based on readability and legibility research, shows that many warnings contain excessive information, confusing visuals and safety icons, poor document design, and illegible typefaces. The result is unreadable warnings that do not communicate quickly and correctly, and discourage readers rather than clarify critical information. Many tractor operator warnings are cluttered, "over-written," and contain information needed to protect the manufacturer rather than to inform operators. What is needed is a careful analysis and revision of many safety warnings with the goal of encouraging operators to read the warnings and follow their message.

Detection of rain events in radiological early warning networks with spectro-dosimetric systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dąbrowski, R.; Dombrowski, H.; Kessler, P.; Röttger, A.; Neumaier, S.

2017-10-01

Short-term pronounced increases of the ambient dose equivalent rate, due to rainfall are a well-known phenomenon. Increases in the same order of magnitude or even below may also be caused by a nuclear or radiological event, i.e. by artificial radiation. Hence, it is important to be able to identify natural rain events in dosimetric early warning networks and to distinguish them from radiological events. Novel spectrometric systems based on scintillators may be used to differentiate between the two scenarios, because the measured gamma spectra provide significant nuclide-specific information. This paper describes three simple, automatic methods to check whether an dot H*(10) increase is caused by a rain event or by artificial radiation. These methods were applied to measurements of three spectrometric systems based on CeBr3, LaBr3 and SrI2 scintillation crystals, investigated and tested for their practicability at a free-field reference site of PTB.

Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

2017-06-01

The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when absolute or relative landslide density criteria are considered.

Efforts Toward an Early Warning Crop Monitor for Countries at Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Magadzire, T.; Galu, G.; Rodriguez, M.; Jayanthi, H.

2015-12-01

Assessing crop growing conditions is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. One of the core components of the Group on Earth Observations - Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) targets monitoring Countries at Risk (component 3). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of utilizing remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pest infestation, and climate change in some of the world's most at risk countries. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of Maryland Department of Geography have undertaken efforts to address component 3, by promoting the development of a collaborative Early Warning Crop Monitor (EWCM) that would specifically address Countries at Risk. A number of organizations utilize combinations of satellite earth observations, field campaigns, network partner inputs, and crop modeling techniques to monitor crop conditions throughout the world. Agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provide agricultural monitoring information and reporting across a broad number of areas at risk and in many cases, organizations routinely report on the same countries. The latter offers an opportunity for collaboration on crop growing conditions among agencies. The reduction of uncertainty and achievement of consensus will help strengthen confidence in decisions to commit resources for mitigation of acute food insecurity and support for resilience and development programs. In addition, the development of a collaborative global EWCM will provide each of the partner agencies with the ability to quickly gather crop condition information for areas where they may not typically work or have access to local networks. Using a framework developed by GEOGLAM for monitoring crop conditions in support of the Agricultural Market Information System, we developed an EWCM system for countries at risk. We present the current status of that implementation and highlight achievements to date along with future plans to support the needs of the global agricultural monitoring community.

The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network: An early warning system for tropical rain forests.

PubMed

Rovero, Francesco; Ahumada, Jorge

2017-01-01

While there are well established early warning systems for a number of natural phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, catastrophic fires, tsunamis), we do not have an early warning system for biodiversity. Yet, we are losing species at an unprecedented rate, and this especially occurs in tropical rainforests, the biologically richest but most eroded biome on earth. Unfortunately, there is a chronic gap in standardized and pan-tropical data in tropical forests, affecting our capacity to monitor changes and anticipate future scenarios. The Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network was established to contribute addressing this issue, as it generates real time data to monitor long-term trends in tropical biodiversity and guide conservation practice. We present the Network and focus primarily on the Terrestrial Vertebrates protocol, that uses systematic camera trapping to detect forest mammals and birds, and secondarily on the Zone of Interaction protocol, that measures changes in the anthroposphere around the core monitoring area. With over 3 million images so far recorded, and managed using advanced information technology, TEAM has created the most important data set on tropical forest mammals globally. We provide examples of site-specific and global analyses that, combined with data on anthropogenic disturbance collected in the larger ecosystem where monitoring sites are, allowed us to understand the drivers of changes of target species and communities in space and time. We discuss the potential of this system as a candidate model towards setting up an early warning system that can effectively anticipate changes in coupled human-natural system, trigger management actions, and hence decrease the gap between research and management responses. In turn, TEAM produces robust biodiversity indicators that meet the requirements set by global policies such as the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. Standardization in data collection and public sharing of data in near real time are essential features of such system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

General practice and the Internet revolution. Use of an Internet social network to communicate information on prevention in France.

PubMed

Veuillotte, Isabelle; Morel, Gilles; Pitois, Stephane; Haler, Renaud; Mercier, Patricia; Aubry, Catherine; Cannet, Didier

2015-03-01

The popularity of social networks and the huge number of exchanges have made them immensely important for the communication of information. This French study explored prevention in hereditary breast cancer using a social Internet network to communicate information. The principal objective was to inform French women aged from 20 to 50 years, using the social network Facebook, about the warning signs of breast cancer in cases of a predisposition to the disease due to a genetic mutation. The secondary objectives were to inform people about screening. An information page entitled "hereditary breast cancer: and if I was concerned?" was distributed in 3 different ways: from friend to friend, via groups of persons, and by targeted advertising. Four articles and 11 messages were distributed over 27 days. The total number of visits for this period amounted to 1019. A total of 81 percent of the Internauts were women and 55 percent of the visitors were aged between 25 and 44 years. Other information campaigns concerning public health issues could be conducted using this tool. A legal framework is necessary to preserve the quality of the medical information provided. This new means of communication, used for prevention purposes, will add to other frequently used methods of communication. © The Author(s) 2013.

Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdik, M. O.; Fahjan, Y.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Aydin, M.; Gul, M.

2003-12-01

As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users by UHF systems through a "service provider" company. The users of the early warning signal will be power and gas companies, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, subway system and several high-rise buildings. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. For the rapid response system one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early damage assessment and rapid response information after a damaging earthquake. Early response information is achieved through fast acquisition and analysis of processed data obtained from the network. The stations are routinely interrogated on regular basis by the main data center. After triggered by an earthquake, each station processes the streaming strong motion data to yield the spectral accelerations at specific periods, 12Hz filtered PGA and PGV and will send these parameters in the form of SMS messages at every 20s directly to the main data center through a designated GSM network and through a microwave system. A shake map and damage distribution map (using aggregate building inventories and fragility curves) will be automatically generated using the algorithm developed for this purpose. Loss assessment studies are complemented by a large citywide digital database on the topography, geology, soil conditions, building, infrastructure and lifeline inventory. The shake and damage maps will be conveyed to the governor's and mayor's offices, fire, police and army headquarters within 3 minutes using radio modem and GPRS communication. An additional forty strong motion recorders were placed on important structures in several interconnected clusters to monitor the health of these structures after a damaging earthquake.

Multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system using Micro Air Vehicle for dangerous environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yanan; Wang, Xiaoxun; He, Chengcheng; Lai, Chenlong; Liu, Yuanchao

2015-11-01

For overcoming the problems such as remote operation and dangerous tasks, multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system based on STC89C52 Micro Control Unit and wireless communication technique was proposed. The system with MCU as its core adopted multiple sets of sensor device to monitor environment parameters of different locations, such as temperature, humidity, smoke other harmful gas concentration. Data information collected was transmitted remotely by wireless transceiver module, and then multi-channel data parameter was processed and displayed through serial communication protocol between the module and PC. The results of system could be checked in the form of web pages within a local network which plays a wireless monitoring and warning role. In a remote operation, four-rotor micro air vehicle which fixed airborne data acquisition device was utilized as a middleware between collecting terminal and PC to increase monitoring scope. Whole test system has characteristics of simple construction, convenience, real time ability and high reliability, which could meet the requirements of actual use.

GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

2011-03-01

On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

Clinical significance of automatic warning function of cardiac remote monitoring systems in preventing acute cardiac episodes

PubMed Central

Chen, Shou-Qiang; Xing, Shan-Shan; Gao, Hai-Qing

2014-01-01

Objective: In addition to ambulatory Holter electrocardiographic recording and transtelephonic electrocardiographic monitoring (TTM), a cardiac remote monitoring system can provide an automatic warning function through the general packet radio service (GPRS) network, enabling earlier diagnosis, treatment and improved outcome of cardiac diseases. The purpose of this study was to estimate its clinical significance in preventing acute cardiac episodes. Methods: Using 2 leads (V1 and V5 leads) and the automatic warning mode, 7160 patients were tested with a cardiac remote monitoring system from October 2004 to September 2007. If malignant arrhythmias or obvious ST-T changes appeared in the electrocardiogram records was automatically transferred to the monitoring center, the patient and his family members were informed, and the corresponding precautionary or therapeutic measures were implemented immediately. Results: In our study, 274 cases of malignant arrhythmia, including sinus standstill and ventricular tachycardia, and 43 cases of obvious ST-segment elevation were detected and treated. Because of early detection, there was no death or deformity. Conclusions: A cardiac remote monitoring system providing an automatic warning function can play an important role in preventing acute cardiac episodes. PMID:25674124

Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings at Raleigh, North Carolina.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoium, Debra K.; Riordan, Allen J.; Monahan, John; Keeter, Kermit K.

1997-11-01

The National Weather Service issues public warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when these storms appear imminent. A study of the warning process was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Raleigh, North Carolina, from 1994 through 1996. The purpose of the study was to examine the decision process by documenting the types of information leading to decisions to warn or not to warn and by describing the sequence and timing of events in the development of warnings. It was found that the evolution of warnings followed a logical sequence beginning with storm monitoring and proceeding with increasingly focused activity. For simplicity, information input to the process was categorized as one of three types: ground truth, radar reflectivity, or radar velocity.Reflectivity, velocity, and ground truth were all equally likely to initiate the investigation process. This investigation took an average of 7 min, after which either a decision was made not to warn or new information triggered the warning. Decisions not to issue warnings were based more on ground truth and reflectivity than radar velocity products. Warnings with investigations of more than 2 min were more likely to be triggered by radar reflectivity, than by velocity or ground truth. Warnings with a shorter investigation time, defined here as "immediate trigger warnings," were less frequently based on velocity products and more on ground truth information. Once the decision was made to warn, it took an average of 2.1 min to prepare the warning text. In 85% of cases when warnings were issued, at least one contact was made to emergency management officials or storm spotters in the warned county. Reports of severe weather were usually received soon after the warning was transmitted-almost half of these within 30 min after issue. A total of 68% were received during the severe weather episode, but some of these storm reports later proved false according to Storm Data.Even though the WSR-88D is a sophisticated tool, ground truth information was found to be a vital part of the warning process. However, the data did not indicate that population density was statistically correlated either with the number of warnings issued or the verification rate.

Unsupervised User Similarity Mining in GSM Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Shad, Shafqat Ali; Chen, Enhong

2013-01-01

Mobility data has attracted the researchers for the past few years because of its rich context and spatiotemporal nature, where this information can be used for potential applications like early warning system, route prediction, traffic management, advertisement, social networking, and community finding. All the mentioned applications are based on mobility profile building and user trend analysis, where mobility profile building is done through significant places extraction, user's actual movement prediction, and context awareness. However, significant places extraction and user's actual movement prediction for mobility profile building are a trivial task. In this paper, we present the user similarity mining-based methodology through user mobility profile building by using the semantic tagging information provided by user and basic GSM network architecture properties based on unsupervised clustering approach. As the mobility information is in low-level raw form, our proposed methodology successfully converts it to a high-level meaningful information by using the cell-Id location information rather than previously used location capturing methods like GPS, Infrared, and Wifi for profile mining and user similarity mining. PMID:23576905

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James P.

2006-01-01

The FEWS NET mission is to identify potentially food-insecure conditions early through the provision of timely and analytical hazard and vulnerability information. U.S. Government decision-makers act on this information to authorize mitigation and response activities. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) FEWS NET provides tools and data for monitoring and forecasting the incidence of drought and flooding to identify shocks to the food supply system that could lead to famine. Historically focused on Africa, the scope of the network has expanded to be global coverage. FEWS NET implementing partners include the USGS, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States Agency for International Development (USAID), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Chemonics International.

A Multi-User Game-Theoretical Multipath Routing Protocol to Send Video-Warning Messages over Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

PubMed Central

Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Igartua, Mónica Aguilar; de la Cruz Llopis, Luis J.; Segarra, Esteve Pallarès; Tripp-Barba, Carolina; Urquiza-Aguiar, Luis; Forné, Jordi; Gargallo, Emilio Sanvicente

2015-01-01

The prevention of accidents is one of the most important goals of ad hoc networks in smart cities. When an accident happens, dynamic sensors (e.g., citizens with smart phones or tablets, smart vehicles and buses, etc.) could shoot a video clip of the accident and send it through the ad hoc network. With a video message, the level of seriousness of the accident could be much better evaluated by the authorities (e.g., health care units, police and ambulance drivers) rather than with just a simple text message. Besides, other citizens would be rapidly aware of the incident. In this way, smart dynamic sensors could participate in reporting a situation in the city using the ad hoc network so it would be possible to have a quick reaction warning citizens and emergency units. The deployment of an efficient routing protocol to manage video-warning messages in mobile Ad hoc Networks (MANETs) has important benefits by allowing a fast warning of the incident, which potentially can save lives. To contribute with this goal, we propose a multipath routing protocol to provide video-warning messages in MANETs using a novel game-theoretical approach. As a base for our work, we start from our previous work, where a 2-players game-theoretical routing protocol was proposed to provide video-streaming services over MANETs. In this article, we further generalize the analysis made for a general number of N players in the MANET. Simulations have been carried out to show the benefits of our proposal, taking into account the mobility of the nodes and the presence of interfering traffic.Finally, we also have tested our approach in a vehicular ad hoc network as an incipient start point to develop a novel proposal specifically designed for VANETs. PMID:25897496

An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

2005-01-01

Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological averages. These resources are available at no cost to the user and are updated on a routine basis.

The Challenge of the Seamless Force: The Role of Informal Networks in Battlespace

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

10th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium THE FUTURE OF C2 Symposium Theme: Lessons Learned Title: The... Technology Organisation Fern Hill Park Department of Defence Canberra ACT 2600 AUSTRALIA Phone +61 2 6256 6219 Fax +61 2 6256 6233...Email Leoni.Warne@dsto.defence.gov.au Derek Bopping Defence Science and Technology Organisation Fern Hill Park Department of Defence Canberra

On the Potential Uses of Static Offsets Derived From Low-Cost Community Instruments and Crowd-Sourcing for Earthquake Monitoring and Rapid Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Murray, J. R.; Iannucci, R. A.

2013-12-01

We explore the efficacy of low-cost community instruments (LCCIs) and crowd-sourcing to produce rapid estimates of earthquake magnitude and rupture characteristics which can be used for earthquake loss reduction such as issuing tsunami warnings and guiding rapid response efforts. Real-time high-rate GPS data are just beginning to be incorporated into earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. These data are showing promising utility including producing moment magnitude estimates which do not saturate for the largest earthquakes and determining the geometry and slip distribution of the earthquake rupture in real-time. However, building a network of scientific-quality real-time high-rate GPS stations requires substantial infrastructure investment which is not practicable in many parts of the world. To expand the benefits of real-time geodetic monitoring globally, we consider the potential of pseudorange-based GPS locations such as the real-time positioning done onboard cell phones or on LCCIs that could be distributed in the same way accelerometers are distributed as part of the Quake Catcher Network (QCN). While location information from LCCIs often have large uncertainties, their low cost means that large numbers of instruments can be deployed. A monitoring network that includes smartphones could collect data from potentially millions of instruments. These observations could be averaged together to substantially decrease errors associated with estimated earthquake source parameters. While these data will be inferior to data recorded by scientific-grade seismometers and GPS instruments, there are features of community-based data collection (and possibly analysis) that are very attractive. This approach creates a system where every user can host an instrument or download an application to their smartphone that both provides them with earthquake and tsunami warnings while also providing the data on which the warning system operates. This symbiosis helps to encourage people to both become users of the warning system and to contribute data to the system. Further, there is some potential to take advantage of the LCCI hosts' computing and communications resources to do some of the analysis required for the warning system. We will present examples of the type of data which might be observed by pseudorange-based positioning for both actual earthquakes and laboratory tests as well as performance tests of potential earthquake source modeling derived from pseudorange data. A highlight of these performance tests is a case study of the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake.

Recent improvements in earthquake and tsunami monitoring in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gee, L.; Green, D.; McNamara, D.; Whitmore, P.; Weaver, J.; Huang, P.; Benz, H.

2007-12-01

Following the catastrophic loss of life from the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake and tsunami, the U.S. Government appropriated funds to improve monitoring along a major portion of vulnerable coastal regions in the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Atlantic Ocean. Partners in this project include the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), the Seismic Research Unit of the University of the West Indies, and other collaborating institutions in the Caribbean region. As part of this effort, the USGS is coordinating with Caribbean host nations to design and deploy nine new broadband and strong-motion seismic stations. The instrumentation consists of an STS-2 seismometer, an Episensor accelerometer, and a Q330 high resolution digitizer. Six stations are currently transmitting data to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, where the data are redistributed to the NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers, regional monitoring partners, and the IRIS Data Management Center. Operating stations include: Isla Barro Colorado, Panama; Gun Hill Barbados; Grenville, Grenada; Guantanamo Bay, Cuba; Sabaneta Dam, Dominican Republic; and Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Three additional stations in Barbuda, Grand Turks, and Jamaica will be completed during the fall of 2007. These nine stations are affiliates of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) and complement existing GSN stations as well as regional stations. The new seismic stations improve azimuthal coverage, increase network density, and provide on-scale recording throughout the region. Complementary to this network, NOAA has placed Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) stations at sites in regions with a history of generating destructive tsunamis. Recently, NOAA completed deployment of 7 DART stations off the coasts of Montauk Pt, NY; Charleston, SC; Miami, FL; San Juan, Puerto Rico; New Orleans, LA; and Bermuda as part of the U.S. tsunami warning system expansion. DART systems consist of an anchored seafloor pressure recorder (BPR) and a companion moored surface buoy for real-time communications. The new stations are a second-generation design (DART II) equipped with two- way satellite communications that allow NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers to set stations in event mode in anticipation of possible tsunamis or retrieve the high-resolution (15-s intervals) data in one-hour blocks for detailed analysis. Combined with development of sophisticated wave propagation and site-specific inundation models, the DART data are being used to forecast wave heights for at-risk coastal communities. NOAA expects to deploy a total of 39 DART II buoy stations by 2008 (32 in the Pacific and 7 in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf regions). The seismic and DART networks are two components in a comprehensive and fully-operational global observing system to detect and warn the public of earthquake and tsunami threats. NOAA and USGS are working together to make important strides in enhancing communication networks so residents and visitors can receive earthquake and tsunami watches and warnings around the clock.

Evaluating the Real-time and Offline Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cua, G.; Fischer, M.; Heaton, T.; Wiemer, S.

2009-04-01

The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to regional, network-based earthquake early warning (EEW). Bayes' theorem as applied in the VS algorithm states that the most probable source estimates at any given time is a combination of contributions from relatively static prior information that does not change over the timescale of earthquake rupture and a likelihood function that evolves with time to take into account incoming pick and amplitude observations from the on-going earthquake. Potentially useful types of prior information include network topology or station health status, regional hazard maps, earthquake forecasts, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. The VS codes provide magnitude and location estimates once picks are available at 4 stations; these source estimates are subsequently updated each second. The algorithm predicts the geographical distribution of peak ground acceleration and velocity using the estimated magnitude and location and appropriate ground motion prediction equations; the peak ground motion estimates are also updated each second. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California and Switzerland is funded by the Seismic Early Warning for Europe (SAFER) project. The VS method is one of three EEW algorithms whose real-time performance is being evaluated and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) EEW project. A crucial component of operational EEW algorithms is the ability to distinguish between noise and earthquake-related signals in real-time. We discuss various empirical approaches that allow the VS algorithm to operate in the presence of noise. Real-time operation of the VS codes at the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) began in July 2008. On average, the VS algorithm provides initial magnitude, location, origin time, and ground motion distribution estimates within 17 seconds of the earthquake origin time. These initial estimate times are dominated by the time for 4 acceptable picks to be available, and thus are heavily influenced by the station density in a given region; these initial estimate times also include the effects of telemetry delay, which ranges between 6 and 15 seconds at the SCSN, and processing time (~1 second). Other relevant performance statistics include: 95% of initial real-time location estimates are within 20 km of the actual epicenter, 97% of initial real-time magnitude estimates are within one magnitude unit of the network magnitude. Extension of real-time VS operations to networks in Northern California is an on-going effort. In Switzerland, the VS codes have been run on offline waveform data from over 125 earthquakes recorded by the Swiss Digital Seismic Network (SDSN) and the Swiss Strong Motion Network (SSMS). We discuss the performance of the VS algorithm on these datasets in terms of magnitude, location, and ground motion estimation.

Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriman, L.

2014-12-01

Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust transport from eastern Australia: a proxy for Holocene aridity and ENSO-type climate variability, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 282. [4] Kimura, R. (2012), Factors contributing to dust storms in source regions producing the yellow-sand phenomena observed in Japan from 1993 to 2002, J. Arid Environ. 80

Role of information technology (IT) in public health, India (problems & prospects): Role of information communication technology (ICT) in disease surveillance under Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP).

PubMed

Sharma, Rajeev; Luthra, Pallavi; Karad, Amit; Dhariwal, A C; Ichhpujani, R L; Lal, Shiv

2010-06-01

Information Communication Technology (ICT) has proven to be a strong public health tool. Keeping the future need of country and building National Disease Surveillance System, Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP) was launched by Hon'ble Union Minister of Health & Family Welfare in November 2004. It is a decentralized, State based surveillance program in the country. It is intended to detect early warning signals of impending outbreaks and help initiate an effective response in a timely manner. One of the major components of the project is the - use of Information Technology for collection, collation, compilation, analysis and dissemination of data besides distance education and video conferencing. A network of 800 sites across India has been established through Satellite, Broadband and High end Video conferencing equipments. The network is managed by a team of data managers and data entry operators at all state surveillance units and district surveillance units respectively. The network was proven to be extremely useful to respond to the current influenza A H1N1 pandemic. It is proposed to extend the network to cover private sector and provide convergence with other National Health Programs.

REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

2014-05-01

Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

Hydrological information system based on on-line monitoring--from strategy to implementation in the Brantas River Basin, East Java, Indonesia.

PubMed

Marini, G W; Wellguni, H

2003-01-01

The worsening environmental situation of the Brantas River, East Java, is addressed by a comprehensive basin management strategy which relies on accurate water quantity and quality data retrieved from a newly installed online monitoring network. Integrated into a Hydrological Information System, the continuously measured indicative parameters allow early warning, control and polluter identification. Additionally, long-term analyses have been initiated for improving modelling applications like flood forecasting, water resource management and pollutant propagation. Preliminary results illustrate the efficiency of the installed system.

A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system integrates OGC Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements. Using OGC Web Map Service (WMS) and Web Feature Service (WFS) spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture. The integration of a simulation system to identify affected areas is considered using the OGC Web Processing Service (WPS). Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) together with addressing information defined via the OASIS Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The first system demonstrator has been designed and implemented to support plausible scenarios demonstrating the treatment of simulated tsunami threats with an essential subset of a National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC). The feasibility and the potentials of the implemented approach are demonstrated covering standard operations as well as tsunami detection and alerting functions. The demonstrator presented addresses information management and decision-support processes in a hypothetical natural crisis situation caused by a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Developments of the system are based to the largest extent on free and open source software (FOSS) components and industry standards. Emphasis has been and will be made on leveraging open source technologies that support mature system architecture models wherever appropriate. All open source software produced is foreseen to be published on a publicly available software repository thus allowing others to reuse results achieved and enabling further development and collaboration with a wide community including scientists, developers, users and stakeholders. This live demonstration is linked with the talk "TRIDEC Natural Crisis Management Demonstrator for Tsunamis" (EGU2012-7275) given in the session "Architecture of Future Tsunami Warning Systems" (NH5.7/ESSI1.7).

The effects of volcanoes on health: preparedness in Mexico.

PubMed

Zeballos, J L; Meli, R; Vilchis, A; Barrios, L

1996-01-01

The article reviews the most important aspects of volcanic eruptions and presents a summary of the harmful materials they emit. The main health effects can be classified as either physical (trauma, respiratory diseases, etc.) or psychological (depression, anxiety, nightmares, neurosis, etc.). Popocatépetl, the most famous active volcano in Mexico, lies on the borders of the States of Mexico, Puebla and Morelos. In 1993, seismic activity intensified, as did as the emission of fumaroles, followed in December 1994 by moderate tremors and strong emissions of gases and ash. In 1996, a number of seismic events led to an unexpected explosion. A daily emission of 8,000 to 15,000 tonnes of sulfur dioxide has been measured. Popocatépetl is located in a densely populated region of Mexico. A complex network to monitor the volcano using sophisticated equipment has been set up, including visual surveillance, seismic, geochemical and geodesic monitoring. An early warning system (SINAPROC/CENAPRED) has been developed to keep the population permanently informed. The warning system uses colour codes: green for normal, yellow for alert, and red for warning and evacuation. An emergency plan has been prepared, including evacuation and preparation for medical centres and hospitals in the region, as well as intense public information campaigns.

Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

2009-12-01

With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART system, limiting the time available for an EEW-based response (i.e., slowing or stopping trains). While EEW systems are currently being tested in California, the societal benefits may be even more pronounced in other earthquake-prone parts of the United States. In the central and eastern United States, strong ground motions are felt over significantly larger areas than in California, enabling both a larger area and longer lead times for warnings ahead of the arrival of strong shaking. Because these regions are less resistant to earthquake shaking, such warnings may be even more important for safety and emergency response. However, in many areas a significant increase in the instrumentation density would be required for EEW to become a reality. Although the details of EEW systems are specific to earthquakes, the operation of sensor networks, real-time data analysis, and rapid notification to lifelines is an emerging technology that can be used for real-time detection and early warning of other types of natural and human-caused disasters and emergencies.

Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.

2014-12-01

The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a global tsunami warning system has been substantial and today fully-functioning TWCs protect most of the world's coastlines. These improvements have also led to a substantial reduction of time required by the TWCs to detect, locate, and assess the tsunami threat from earthquakes occurring worldwide.

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of dozens of seismogeodetic stations available through the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (University of Washington), the Plate Boundary Observatory (UNAVCO) and the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (Central Washington University) as the basis for local tsunami warnings for a large subduction zone earthquake in Cascadia.

On the Development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Networks: Practical experiences from North and Central America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Braun, John; Meertens, Charles; Mattioli, Glen; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2015-04-01

The GAGE facility, managed by UNAVCO, maintains and operates about 1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America as part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and the Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network (COCONet). UNAVCO has upgraded about 450 stations in these networks to real-time and high-rate (RT-GNSS) and included surface meteorological instruments. The majority of these streaming stations are part of the PBO but also include approximately 50 RT-GNSS stations in the Caribbean and Central American region as part of the COCONet and TLALOCNet projects. Based on community input UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of these resources to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources, extreme weather events such as hurricanes and storms, and space weather. The RT-GNSS networks also have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize geophysical events, provide early warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development with university, commercial, non-profit and government collaboration on national and international scales include earthquake and tsunami early warning systems and near real-time tropospheric modeling of hurricanes and precipitable water vapor estimate assimilation. Using tsunami early warning as an example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation which informs the initial modeled tsunami. The networks can then can also provide direct measurements of the tsunami wave heights and propagation by tracking the associated ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as the waves approaches the shoreline. These GNSS based constraints can refine the tsunami and inundation models and potentially mitigate hazards. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Our operational system has multiple communities that use and depend on a Pan-Pacific real-time open data set. The ability to merge existing data sets and user communities, seismic and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to meta-data, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and specific issues related to using these products in operational forecasting. Additional issues related to data access across national borders and cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some committed to specific technologies, methodologies, internal structure and further constrained by data policies make a truly operational system an on-going work in progress. We present a short history of evolving a very large and expensive RT-GNSS network originally designed to answer specific long term scientific questions about structure and evolution of North American plate boundaries into a much needed national hazard system while continuing to serve our core community in long term scientific studies. Out primary focus in this presentation is an analysis of our current goals and impediments to achieving these broader objectives.

Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

PubMed

Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Operational Space Weather Products at IPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neudegg, D.; Steward, G.; Marshall, R.; Terkildsen, M.; Kennewell, J.; Patterson, G.; Panwar, R.

2008-12-01

IPS Radio and Space Services operates an extensive network (IPSNET) of monitoring stations and observatories within the Australasian and Antarctic regions to gather information on the space environment. This includes ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS-ISM, oblique HF sounding, riometers, and solar radio and optical telescopes. IPS exchanges this information with similar organisations world-wide. The Regional Warning Centre (RWC) is the Australian Space Forecast Centre (ASFC) and it utilizes this data to provide products and services to support customer operations. A wide range of customers use IPS services including; defence force and emergency services using HF radio communications and surveillance systems, organisations involved in geophysical exploration and pipeline cathodic protection, GPS users in aviation. Subscriptions to the alerts, warnings, forecasts and reports regarding the solar, geophysical and ionospheric conditions are distributed by email and Special Message Service (SMS). IPS also develops and markets widely used PC software prediction tools for HF radio skywave and surface wave (ASAPS/GWPS) and provides consultancy services for system planning.

Comprehending product warning information: age-related effects and the roles of memory, inferencing, and knowledge.

PubMed

Hancock, Holly E; Fisk, Arthur D; Rogers, Wendy A

2005-01-01

Two experiments were conducted to determine if age affects comprehension for explicit and implied warning information and, if so, to reveal the nature of such effects. Experiment 1 measured younger (18-23 years) and older (65-75 years) adults' comprehension for real-world warnings via a verification test presented immediately after reading the warnings or after a delay. In Experiment 2, younger (18-22 years) and older (64-76 years) participants also read fabricated warnings that were inconsistent with real-world knowledge. In both experiments, older adults frequently failed to infer the correct hazard and safety information. The older adults also had trouble understanding warning information even when it was explicitly stated (when no inferences were required), especially when memory demands were high and product-specific knowledge could not be used. That many of the older adults did not understand commonly used product warnings indicates that the wording on many household products is not conducive to being understood by everyone who uses them. Actual or potential applications of this research include the recommendation that designers of product labels, warnings, and instructions should consider minimizing memory load and maximizing opportunities for knowledge application when designing consumer warnings.

Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

2017-09-01

The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

Detection of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks by CUSUM-based overcrowd-severe-respiratory-disease-index model.

PubMed

Polanco, Carlos; Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

2013-01-01

A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008-2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts.

Detection of Severe Respiratory Disease Epidemic Outbreaks by CUSUM-Based Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index Model

PubMed Central

Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E.; Samaniego, José Lino; Buhse, Thomas; Villanueva-Martínez, Sebastián

2013-01-01

A severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreak correlates with a high demand of specific supplies and specialized personnel to hold it back in a wide region or set of regions; these supplies would be beds, storage areas, hemodynamic monitors, and mechanical ventilators, as well as physicians, respiratory technicians, and specialized nurses. We describe an online cumulative sum based model named Overcrowd-Severe-Respiratory-Disease-Index based on the Modified Overcrowd Index that simultaneously monitors and informs the demand of those supplies and personnel in a healthcare network generating early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks through the interpretation of such variables. A post hoc historical archive is generated, helping physicians in charge to improve the transit and future allocation of supplies in the entire hospital network during the outbreak. The model was thoroughly verified in a virtual scenario, generating multiple epidemic outbreaks in a 6-year span for a 13-hospital network. When it was superimposed over the H1N1 influenza outbreak census (2008–2010) taken by the National Institute of Medical Sciences and Nutrition Salvador Zubiran in Mexico City, it showed that it is an effective algorithm to notify early warnings of severe respiratory disease epidemic outbreaks with a minimal rate of false alerts. PMID:24069063

32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

Identifying critical transitions and their leading biomolecular networks in complex diseases.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Li, Meiyi; Liu, Zhi-Ping; Wu, Jiarui; Chen, Luonan; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2012-01-01

Identifying a critical transition and its leading biomolecular network during the initiation and progression of a complex disease is a challenging task, but holds the key to early diagnosis and further elucidation of the essential mechanisms of disease deterioration at the network level. In this study, we developed a novel computational method for identifying early-warning signals of the critical transition and its leading network during a disease progression, based on high-throughput data using a small number of samples. The leading network makes the first move from the normal state toward the disease state during a transition, and thus is causally related with disease-driving genes or networks. Specifically, we first define a state-transition-based local network entropy (SNE), and prove that SNE can serve as a general early-warning indicator of any imminent transitions, regardless of specific differences among systems. The effectiveness of this method was validated by functional analysis and experimental data.

Number of warning information sources and decision making during tornadoes.

PubMed

Luo, Jianjun; Cong, Zhen; Liang, Daan

2015-03-01

Taking proper protective action upon receiving tornado warnings is critical to reducing casualties. With more warning information sources becoming available, how the number of such information sources affects decision making should be quantitatively investigated. To examine how the number of warning information sources affected individuals' decisions to take protective action during tornadoes. A telephone survey using random sampling was conducted in 2012 with residents in Tuscaloosa AL and Joplin MO, resulting in a working sample of 782 respondents. Both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (Enhanced Fujita Scale [EF]4 and EF5) in 2011. The analysis was conducted in 2013. Logistic regression analysis showed that relative to having only one warning information source, having two and three or more warning information sources significantly increased the odds of taking protective action in Joplin but not in Tuscaloosa; having three or more sources had a significantly stronger effect on taking protective action in Joplin than in Tuscaloosa. Having an emergency preparation plan in both cities and being white in Tuscaloosa significantly increased the odds of taking protective action, whereas being divorced in Joplin reduced these odds. Receiving warnings from more warning information sources might be more beneficial in places with less previous exposure to tornadoes and for populations with lower awareness of a potential tornado and higher probability of receiving no warnings. Emergency management agencies and public health officials should give priority to these places and populations when formulating disaster mitigation decisions and policies. Copyright © 2015 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of Social Network Sensors during Hurricane Sandy

PubMed Central

Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Cebrian, Manuel

2015-01-01

Information flow during catastrophic events is a critical aspect of disaster management. Modern communication platforms, in particular online social networks, provide an opportunity to study such flow and derive early-warning sensors, thus improving emergency preparedness and response. Performance of the social networks sensor method, based on topological and behavioral properties derived from the “friendship paradox”, is studied here for over 50 million Twitter messages posted before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We find that differences in users’ network centrality effectively translate into moderate awareness advantage (up to 26 hours); and that geo-location of users within or outside of the hurricane-affected area plays a significant role in determining the scale of such an advantage. Emotional response appears to be universal regardless of the position in the network topology, and displays characteristic, easily detectable patterns, opening a possibility to implement a simple “sentiment sensing” technique that can detect and locate disasters. PMID:25692690

Performance of social network sensors during Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

Kryvasheyeu, Yury; Chen, Haohui; Moro, Esteban; Van Hentenryck, Pascal; Cebrian, Manuel

2015-01-01

Information flow during catastrophic events is a critical aspect of disaster management. Modern communication platforms, in particular online social networks, provide an opportunity to study such flow and derive early-warning sensors, thus improving emergency preparedness and response. Performance of the social networks sensor method, based on topological and behavioral properties derived from the "friendship paradox", is studied here for over 50 million Twitter messages posted before, during, and after Hurricane Sandy. We find that differences in users' network centrality effectively translate into moderate awareness advantage (up to 26 hours); and that geo-location of users within or outside of the hurricane-affected area plays a significant role in determining the scale of such an advantage. Emotional response appears to be universal regardless of the position in the network topology, and displays characteristic, easily detectable patterns, opening a possibility to implement a simple "sentiment sensing" technique that can detect and locate disasters.

Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

2014-05-01

The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal of KOERI is also transmitted to the serve shut down system of the Marmaray Rail Tube Tunnel and Commuter Rail Mass Transit System in Istanbul. The Marmaray system includes an undersea railway tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait. Several strong motion instruments are installed within the tunnel for taking measurements against strong ground shaking and early warning purposes. This system is integrated with the KOERI EEW System. KOERI sends the EEW signal to the command center of Marmaray. Having received the signal, the command center put into action the previously defined measurements. For example, the trains within the tunnel will be stopped at the nearest station, no access to the tunnel will be allowed to the trains approaching the tunnel, water protective caps will be closed to protect flood closing the connection between the onshore and offshore tunnels.

Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2017-04-01

In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi:10.1002/qj.2463

Somerset County Flood Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoppe, Heidi L.

2007-01-01

The timely warning of a flood is crucial to the protection of lives and property. One has only to recall the floods of August 2, 1973, September 16 and 17, 1999, and April 16, 2007, in Somerset County, New Jersey, in which lives were lost and major property damage occurred, to realize how costly, especially in terms of human life, an unexpected flood can be. Accurate forecasts and warnings cannot be made, however, without detailed information about precipitation and streamflow in the drainage basin. Since the mid 1960's, the National Weather Service (NWS) has been able to forecast flooding on larger streams in Somerset County, such as the Raritan and Millstone Rivers. Flooding on smaller streams in urban areas was more difficult to predict. In response to this problem the NWS, in cooperation with the Green Brook Flood Control Commission, installed a precipitation gage in North Plainfield, and two flash-flood alarms, one on Green Brook at Seeley Mills and one on Stony Brook at Watchung, in the early 1970's. In 1978, New Jersey's first countywide flood-warning system was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Somerset County. This system consisted of a network of eight stage and discharge gages equipped with precipitation gages linked by telephone telemetry and eight auxiliary precipitation gages. The gages were installed throughout the county to collect precipitation and runoff data that could be used to improve flood-monitoring capabilities and flood-frequency estimates. Recognizing the need for more detailed hydrologic information for Somerset County, the USGS, in cooperation with Somerset County, designed and installed the Somerset County Flood Information System (SCFIS) in 1990. This system is part of a statewide network of stream gages, precipitation gages, weather stations, and tide gages that collect data in real time. The data provided by the SCFIS improve the flood forecasting ability of the NWS and aid Somerset County and municipal agencies in the planning and execution of flood-preparation and emergency-evacuation procedures in the county. This fact sheet describes the SCFIS and identifies its benefits.

Active Disaster Response System for a Smart Building

PubMed Central

Lin, Chun-Yen; Chu, Edward T.-H; Ku, Lun-Wei; Liu, Jane W. S.

2014-01-01

Disaster warning and surveillance systems have been widely applied to help the public be aware of an emergency. However, existing warning systems are unable to cooperate with household appliances or embedded controllers; that is, they cannot provide enough time for preparedness and evacuation, especially for disasters like earthquakes. In addition, the existing warning and surveillance systems are not responsible for collecting sufficient information inside a building for relief workers to conduct a proper rescue action after a disaster happens. In this paper, we describe the design and implementation of a proof of concept prototype, named the active disaster response system (ADRS), which automatically performs emergency tasks when an earthquake happens. ADRS can interpret Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) messages, published by an official agency, and actuate embedded controllers to perform emergency tasks to respond to the alerts. Examples of emergency tasks include opening doors and windows and cutting off power lines and gas valves. In addition, ADRS can maintain a temporary network by utilizing the embedded controllers; hence, victims trapped inside a building are still able to post emergency messages if the original network is disconnected. We conducted a field trial to evaluate the effectiveness of ADRS after an earthquake happened. Our results show that compared to manually operating emergency tasks, ADRS can reduce the operation time by up to 15 s, which is long enough for people to get under sturdy furniture, or to evacuate from the third floor to the first floor, or to run more than 100 m. PMID:25237897

An Offshore Geophysical Network in the Pacific Northwest for Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcock, W. S. D.; Schmidt, D. A.; Vidale, J. E.; Harrington, M.; Bodin, P.; Cram, G.; Delaney, J. R.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Kelley, D. S.; LeVeque, R. J.; Manalang, D.; McGuire, C.; Roland, E. C.; Tilley, J.; Vogl, C. J.; Stoermer, M.

2016-12-01

The Cascadia subduction zone hosts catastrophic earthquakes every few hundred years. On land, there are extensive geophysical networks available to monitor the subduction zone, but since the locked portion of the plate boundary lies mostly offshore, these networks are ideally complemented by seafloor observations. Such considerations helped motivate the development of scientific cabled observatories that cross the subduction zone at two sites off Vancouver Island and one off central Oregon, but these have a limited spatial footprint along the strike of the subduction zone. The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network is leading a collaborative effort to implement an earthquake early warning system in the Washington and Oregon using data streams from land networks as well as the few existing offshore instruments. For subduction zone earthquakes that initiate offshore, this system will provide a warning. However, the availability of real time offshore instrumentation along the entire subduction zone would improve its reliability and accuracy, add up to 15 s to the warning time, and ensure an early warning for coastal communities near the epicenter. Furthermore, real-time networks of seafloor pressure sensors above the subduction zone would enable monitoring and contribute to accurate predictions of the incoming tsunami. There is also strong scientific motivation for offshore monitoring. We lack a complete knowledge of the plate convergence rate and direction. Measurements of steady deformation and observations of transient processes such as fluid pulsing, microseismic cycles, tremor and slow-slip are necessary for assessing the dimensions of the locked zone and its along-strike segmentation. Long-term monitoring will also provide baseline observations that can be used to detect and evaluate changes in the subduction environment. There are significant engineering challenges to be solved to ensure the system is sufficiently reliable and maintainable. It must provide continuous monitoring over its operational life in the harsh ocean environment and at least parts of the system must continue to operate following a megathrust event. These requirements for robustness must be balanced with the desire for a flexible design that can accommodate new scientific instrumentation over the life of the project.

The Importance of Relevant Emotional Arousal in the Efficacy of Pictorial Health Warnings for Cigarettes.

PubMed

Shi, Zhenhao; Wang, An-Li; Emery, Lydia F; Sheerin, Kaitlin M; Romer, Daniel

2017-06-01

Warning labels for cigarettes proposed by Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were rejected by the courts partly because they were thought to be emotionally evocative but have no educational value. To address this issue, we compared three types of smoking warnings: (1) FDA-proposed warnings with pictures illustrating the smoking hazards; (2) warnings with the same text information paired with equally aversive but smoking-irrelevant images; and (3) text-only warnings. Smokers recruited through Amazon's Mechanical Turk were randomly assigned to one of the three conditions. They reported how many cigarettes they smoked per day (CPD) during the past week and then viewed eight different warnings. After viewing each warning, they rated its believability and perceived ability to motivate quitting. One week later, 62.3% of participants again reported CPD during the past week, rated how the warnings they viewed the week before changed their feeling about smoking, rated their intention to quit in the next 30 days, and recalled as much as they could about each of the warnings they viewed. Compared to the irrelevant image and text-only warnings, FDA warnings were seen as more believable and able to motivate quitting and at the follow-up, produced lower CPD, worse feeling about smoking, and more memory for warning information, controlling for age and baseline CPD. Emotionally evocative warning images are not effective in communicating the risks of smoking, unless they pertain to smoking-related hazards. In future versions of warning labels, pictorial contents should be pretested for the ability to enhance the health-hazard message. Our study shows that contrary to court opinions, FDA-proposed pictorial warnings for cigarettes are more effective in communicating smoking-related hazards than warnings that merely contain emotionally aversive but smoking-irrelevant images. The suggestion that FDA's proposed warnings employed emotionally arousing pictures with no information value was not supported. Pictures that illustrate the risk carry information that enhances the persuasiveness of the warning. The congruence between pictures and text should be a criterion for selecting warning images in the future. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iranata, Data, E-mail: iranata-data@yahoo.com, E-mail: data@ce.its.ac.id; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan

Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limitmore » value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.« less

Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit

2010-05-01

Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

ADHD Medication Use Following FDA Risk Warnings

PubMed Central

Barry, Colleen L.; Martin, Andres; Busch, Susan H.

2013-01-01

Background In 2006, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigated cardiac and psychiatric risks associated with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication use. Aims of the Study To examine how disclosure of safety risks affected pediatric ADHD use, and to assess news media coverage of the issue to better understand trends in treatment patterns. Methods We used the AHRQ’s Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), a nationally representative household panel survey, to calculate unadjusted rates of pediatric ADHD use from 2002 to 2008 overall and by parents’ education. We examined whether children (ages 0 to 20) filled a prescription for any ADHD medication during the calendar year. Next, we used content analysis methods to analyze news coverage of the issue in 10 high-circulation newspapers, the 3 major television networks and a major cable news network in the U.S. We examined 6 measures capturing information conveyed on risk and benefits of ADHD medication use. Results No declines in medication use following FDA safety warnings overall or by parental education level were observed. News media coverage was relatively balanced in its portrayal of the risks and benefits of ADHD medication use by children. Discussion ADHD risk warnings were not associated with large declines in medication use, and balanced news coverage may have contributed to the treatment patterns observed. Self-reported surveys like the MEPS rely on the recall of respondents and may be subject to reporting bias. However, the validity of these data is supported by their consistency with other data on drug use from other sources. Implications for Health Care Provision and Use These findings are in direct contrast to the substantial declines in use observed after pediatric antidepressant risk warnings in the context of a news media environment that emphasized risks over benefits. Implications for Health Policies Our findings are relevant to the ongoing discussion about improving the FDA’s ability to monitor drug safety. Safety warnings occur amid ongoing concern that the agency has insufficient authority and resources to fulfill its mission to protect the public’s health. Efforts to bolster the FDA’s postmarketing surveillance system have the potential to incorporate more data in decision making to allow for earlier detection of health risks. Implications for Further Research Further research is needed to assess whether other treatment changes occurred following risk warnings. For example, it is important to determine whether an increase in cardiac screening prior to medication initiation occurred. Likewise, the FDA advises that children experiencing hallucinations or other psychiatric responses to medication be discontinued from drug treatment. If it is determined that instead of being discontinued from medication treatment, children experiencing hallucinations are put on additional medication (e.g., antipsychotics), additional efforts by the FDA to better inform the public are warranted. PMID:23001280

ADHD medication use following FDA risk warnings.

PubMed

Barry, Colleen L; Martin, Andres; Busch, Susan H

2012-09-01

In 2006, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigated cardiac and psychiatric risks associated with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication use. To examine how disclosure of safety risks affected pediatric ADHD use, and to assess news media coverage of the issue to better understand trends in treatment patterns. We used the AHRQ's Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), a nationally representative household panel survey, to calculate unadjusted rates of pediatric ADHD use from 2002 to 2008 overall and by parents' education. We examined whether children (ages 0 to 20) filled a prescription for any ADHD medication during the calendar year. Next, we used content analysis methods to analyze news coverage of the issue in 10 high-circulation newspapers, the 3 major television networks and a major cable news network in the U.S. We examined 6 measures capturing information conveyed on risk and benefits of ADHD medication use. No declines in medication use following FDA safety warnings overall or by parental education level were observed. News media coverage was relatively balanced in its portrayal of the risks and benefits of ADHD medication use by children. ADHD risk warnings were not associated with large declines in medication use, and balanced news coverage may have contributed to the treatment patterns observed. Self-reported surveys like the MEPS rely on the recall of respondents and may be subject to reporting bias. However, the validity of these data is supported by their consistency with other data on drug use from other sources. These findings are in direct contrast to the substantial declines in use observed after pediatric antidepressant risk warnings in the context of a news media environment that emphasized risks over benefits. Our findings are relevant to the ongoing discussion about improving the FDA's ability to monitor drug safety. Safety warnings occur amid ongoing concern that the agency has insufficient authority and resources to fulfill its mission to protect the public's health. Efforts to bolster the FDA's post-marketing surveillance system have the potential to incorporate more data in decision making to allow for earlier detection of health risks. Further research is needed to assess whether other treatment changes occurred following risk warnings. For example, it is important to determine whether an increase in cardiac screening prior to medication initiation occurred. Likewise, the FDA advises that children experiencing hallucinations or other psychiatric responses to medication be discontinued from drug treatment. If it is determined that instead of being discontinued from medication treatment, children experiencing hallucinations are put on additional medication (e.g., antipsychotics), additional efforts by the FDA to better inform the public are warranted.

Long term real-time GB_InSAR monitoring of a large rock slide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosta, G. B.; Agliardi, F.; Sosio, R.; Rivolta, C.; Mannucci, G.

2011-12-01

We analyze a long term monitoring dataset collected for a deep-seated rockslide (Ruinon, Lombardy, Italy). The rockslide has been actively monitored since 1997 by means of an in situ monitoring network (topographic benchmarks, GPS, wire extensometers) and since 2006 by a ground based radar. Monitoring data have been used to set-up and update the geological model, to identify rockslide extent and geometry, to analyse the sensitivity to seasonal changes and their impact on the reliability and early warning potential of monitoring data. GB-InSAR data allowed us to identify sectors characterized by different behaviours and associated to outcropping bedrock, thick debris cover, major structures. GB-Insar data have been used to set-up a "virtual monitoring network" by a posteriori selection of critical locations. Displacement time series extracted from GB-InSAR data provide a large amount of information even in debris-covered areas, when ground-based instrumentation fails. Such spatially-distributed, improved information, validated by selected ground-based measurements, allowed to establish new velocity and displacement thresholds for early warning purposes. The data are analysed to verify the dependency of the observed displacements on the line of sight orientation as well as on that of the framed resolution cell. Relationships with rainfall and morphological slope characteristics have been analysed to verify the sensitivity to rain intensity and amount and to distinguish among the different possible mechanisms.

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing System (MPwise): Its Description and Application to Earthquake Risk Mitigation.

PubMed

Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan

2017-10-20

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation.

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing System (MPwise): Its Description and Application to Earthquake Risk Mitigation

PubMed Central

Boxberger, Tobias; Fleming, Kevin; Pittore, Massimiliano; Parolai, Stefano; Pilz, Marco; Mikulla, Stefan

2017-01-01

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation. PMID:29053608

Game-Theoretical Design of an Adaptive Distributed Dissemination Protocol for VANETs.

PubMed

Iza-Paredes, Cristhian; Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Aguilar Igartua, Mónica; Forné, Jordi

2018-01-19

Road safety applications envisaged for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) depend largely on the dissemination of warning messages to deliver information to concerned vehicles. The intended applications, as well as some inherent VANET characteristics, make data dissemination an essential service and a challenging task in this kind of networks. This work lays out a decentralized stochastic solution for the data dissemination problem through two game-theoretical mechanisms. Given the non-stationarity induced by a highly dynamic topology, diverse network densities, and intermittent connectivity, a solution for the formulated game requires an adaptive procedure able to exploit the environment changes. Extensive simulations reveal that our proposal excels in terms of number of transmissions, lower end-to-end delay and reduced overhead while maintaining high delivery ratio, compared to other proposals.

Game-Theoretical Design of an Adaptive Distributed Dissemination Protocol for VANETs

PubMed Central

Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Aguilar Igartua, Mónica

2018-01-01

Road safety applications envisaged for Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) depend largely on the dissemination of warning messages to deliver information to concerned vehicles. The intended applications, as well as some inherent VANET characteristics, make data dissemination an essential service and a challenging task in this kind of networks. This work lays out a decentralized stochastic solution for the data dissemination problem through two game-theoretical mechanisms. Given the non-stationarity induced by a highly dynamic topology, diverse network densities, and intermittent connectivity, a solution for the formulated game requires an adaptive procedure able to exploit the environment changes. Extensive simulations reveal that our proposal excels in terms of number of transmissions, lower end-to-end delay and reduced overhead while maintaining high delivery ratio, compared to other proposals. PMID:29351255

Windshear warning aerospatiale approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonafe, J. L.

1988-01-01

Vugraphs and transcribed remarks of a presentation on Aerospatiale's approach to windshear warning systems are given. Information is given on low altitude wind shear probability, wind shear warning models and warning system false alarms.

Nanotechnology enabled sensors and wireless sensing networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsui, Ray; Zhang, Ruth; Mastroianni, Sal; Díaz Aguilar, Alvaro; Forzani, Erica; Tao, Nongjian

2009-05-01

The capabilities of future mobile communication devices will extend beyond merely transmitting and receiving voice, data, and video information. For example, first responders such as firefighters and emergency workers will wear environmentally- aware devices that will warn them of combustible and toxic gases as well as communicate that information wirelessly to the Command and Control Center. Similar sensor systems could alert warfighters of the presence of explosives or biological weapons. These systems can function either in the form of an individual stand-alone detector or part of a wireless sensor network. Novel sensors whose functionality is enhanced via nanotechnology will play a key role in realizing such systems. Such sensors are important because of their high sensitivity, low power consumption, and small size. This talk will provide an overview of some of the advances made in sensors through the use of nanotechnology, including those that make use of carbon nanotubes and nanoparticles. Their applicability in mobile sensing and wireless sensor networks for use in national security and public safety will be described. Other technical challenges associated with the development of such systems and networks will also be discussed.

Considerations and Future Research Directions for E-Cigarette Warnings-Findings from Expert Interviews.

PubMed

Wackowski, Olivia A; Hammond, David; O'Connor, Richard J; Strasser, Andrew A; Delnevo, Cristine D

2017-07-14

Tobacco warning labels are important sources of risk information but research historically has been cigarette-centric. This qualitative study aimed to inform future direction and research on warnings for e-cigarettes. Between June and August 2016, we conducted interviews with 10 researchers with expertise in tobacco warning label research. Interviewees were registrants of a 2016 National Cancer Institute grantee meeting on tobacco warnings. Several participants agreed that the Food and Drug Administration's new nicotine addiction warning for e-cigarettes could be informative but that it might not resonate with young people. Many agreed that more than one warning would be important as e-cigarette science evolves and that research on additional warning themes (e.g., nicotine exposure, harmful constituents) and execution styles (including use of pictorials) was important. Participants were somewhat mixed about the use of reduced-risk messages within e-cigarette warnings, but agreed that research on how to communicate about cigarette/e-cigarette relative risks was needed. Overall, more research is needed on tobacco warnings for non-cigarette products, including on the message content, placement, execution and potential impact on audiences' product knowledge, risk perceptions and use intentions. This is particularly needed for products such as e-cigarettes which may have harm-reduction potential relative to cigarettes and require unique considerations.

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

EPA Science Inventory

The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

A hazard-independent approach for the standardised multi-channel dissemination of warning messages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esbri Palomares, M. A.; Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.

2012-04-01

The tsunami disaster affecting the Indian Ocean region on Christmas 2004 demonstrated very clearly the shortcomings in tsunami detection, public warning processes as well as intergovernmental warning message exchange in the Indian Ocean region. In that regard, early warning systems require that the dissemination of early warning messages has to be executed in way that ensures that the message delivery is timely; the message content is understandable, usable and accurate. To that end, diverse and multiple dissemination channels must be used to increase the chance of the messages reaching all affected persons in a hazard scenario. In addition to this, usage of internationally accepted standards for the warning dissemination such as the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element specified by the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) increase the interoperability among different warning systems enabling thus the concept of system-of-systems proposed by GEOSS. The project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), co-funded by the European Commission under the 6th Framework Programme, aims at strengthening the early warning capacities by building an innovative generation of interoperable tsunami early warning systems based on the above mentioned concepts following a Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) approach. The project focuses on the downstream part of the hazard information processing where customized, user-tailored warning messages and alerts flow from the warning centre to the responsible authorities and/or the public with their different needs and responsibilities. The information logistics services within DEWS generate tailored EDXL-DE/CAP warning messages for each user that must receive the message according to their preferences, e.g., settings for language, interested areas, dissemination channels, etc.. However, the significant difference in the implementation and capabilities of different dissemination channels such as SMS, email and television, have bearing on the information processing required for delivery and consumption of a DEWS EDXL-DE/CAP message over each dissemination channel. These messages may include additional information in the form of maps, graphs, documents, sensor observations, etc. Therefore, the generated messages are pre-processed by channel adaptors in the information dissemination services converting it into a format that is suitable for end-to-end delivery over the dissemination channels without any semantic distortion. The approach followed by DEWS for disseminating warnings not only relies on traditional communication ways used by the already established early warnings such as the delivery of faxes and phone calls but takes into consideration the use of other broadly used communication channels such as SMS, email, narrowcast and broadcast television, instant messaging, Voice over IP, and radio. It also takes advantage of social media channels like RSS feeds, Facebook, Twitter, etc., enabling a multiplier effect, like in the case of radio and television, and thus allowing to create mash-ups by aggregating other sources of information to the original message. Finally, status information is also important in order to assess and understand whether the process of disseminating the warning to the message consumers has been successfully completed or the process failed at some point of the dissemination chain. To that end, CAP-based messages generated within the information dissemination services provide the semantics for those fields that are of interest within the context of reporting the warning dissemination status in DEWS.

Use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road inundation warning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-01-01

SummaryImportant damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions, representing major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods, and an application devoted to the road network has also been recently developed for the North part of this region. This warning system combines distributed hydro-meteorological modelling and susceptibility analysis to provide warnings of road inundations. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, around 200 mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Radar-based QPE and QPF have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. Used on an area it has not been calibrated, the results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall forecasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding 1 h.

A Network Coverage Information-Based Sensor Registry System for IoT Environments

PubMed Central

Jung, Hyunjun; Jeong, Dongwon; Lee, Sukhoon; On, Byung-Won; Baik, Doo-Kwon

2016-01-01

The Internet of Things (IoT) is expected to provide better services through the interaction of physical objects via the Internet. However, its limitations cause an interoperability problem when the sensed data are exchanged between the sensor nodes in wireless sensor networks (WSNs), which constitute the core infrastructure of the IoT. To address this problem, a Sensor Registry System (SRS) is used. By using a SRS, the information of the heterogeneous sensed data remains pure. If users move along a road, their mobile devices predict their next positions and obtain the sensed data for that position from the SRS. If the WSNs in the location in which the users move are unstable, the sensed data will be lost. Consider a situation where the user passes through dangerous areas. If the user’s mobile device cannot receive information, they cannot be warned about the dangerous situation. To avoid this, two novel SRSs that use network coverage information have been proposed: one uses OpenSignal and the other uses the probabilistic distribution of the users accessing SRS. The empirical study showed that the proposed method can seamlessly provide services related to sensing data under any abnormal circumstance. PMID:27463717

A Network Coverage Information-Based Sensor Registry System for IoT Environments.

PubMed

Jung, Hyunjun; Jeong, Dongwon; Lee, Sukhoon; On, Byung-Won; Baik, Doo-Kwon

2016-07-25

The Internet of Things (IoT) is expected to provide better services through the interaction of physical objects via the Internet. However, its limitations cause an interoperability problem when the sensed data are exchanged between the sensor nodes in wireless sensor networks (WSNs), which constitute the core infrastructure of the IoT. To address this problem, a Sensor Registry System (SRS) is used. By using a SRS, the information of the heterogeneous sensed data remains pure. If users move along a road, their mobile devices predict their next positions and obtain the sensed data for that position from the SRS. If the WSNs in the location in which the users move are unstable, the sensed data will be lost. Consider a situation where the user passes through dangerous areas. If the user's mobile device cannot receive information, they cannot be warned about the dangerous situation. To avoid this, two novel SRSs that use network coverage information have been proposed: one uses OpenSignal and the other uses the probabilistic distribution of the users accessing SRS. The empirical study showed that the proposed method can seamlessly provide services related to sensing data under any abnormal circumstance.

Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

2016-12-01

Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

Tsunami Warning Protocol for Eruptions of Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Neal, C.; Nyland, D.; Murray, T.; Power, J.

2006-12-01

Augustine is an island volcano that has generated at least one tsunami. During its January 2006 eruption coastal residents of lower Cook Inlet became concerned about tsunami potential. To address this concern, NOAA's West Coast/ Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) jointly developed a tsunami warning protocol for the most likely scenario for tsunami generation at Augustine: a debris avalanche into the Cook Inlet. Tsunami modeling indicates that a wave generated at Augustine volcano could reach coastal communities in approximately 55 minutes. If a shallow seismic event with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred near Augustine and the AVO had set the level of concern color code to orange or red, the WC/ATWC would immediately issue a warning for the lower Cook Inlet. Given the short tsunami travel times involved, potentially affected communities would be provided as much lead time as possible. Large debris avalanches that could trigger a tsunami in lower Cook Inlet are expected to be accompanied by a strong seismic signal. Seismograms produced by these debris avalanches have unique spectral characteristics. After issuing a warning, the WC/ATWC would compare the observed waveform with known debris avalanches, and would consult with AVO to further evaluate the event using AVO's on-island networks (web cameras, seismic network, etc) to refine or cancel the warning. After the 2006 eruptive phase ended, WC/ATWC, with support from AVO and the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK), developed and installed "splash-gauges" which will provide confirmation of tsunami generation.

Advanced instrumentation for the collection, retrieval, and processing of urban stormwater data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Jerald B.; Bales, Jerad D.; Young, Wendi S.; ,

1995-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, has developed a data-collection network that uses advanced instrumentation to automatically collect, retrieve, and process urban stormwater data. Precipitation measurement and water-quality networks provide data for (1) planned watershed simulation models, (2) early warning of possible flooding, (3) computation of material export, and (4) characterization of water quality in relation to basin conditions. Advantages of advanced instrumentation include remote access to real-time data, reduced demands on and more efficient use of limited human resources, and direct importation of data into a geographical information system for display and graphic analysis.

The Global Public Health Intelligence Network and early warning outbreak detection: a Canadian contribution to global public health.

PubMed

Mykhalovskiy, Eric; Weir, Lorna

2006-01-01

The recent SARS epidemic has renewed widespread concerns about the global transmission of infectious diseases. In this commentary, we explore novel approaches to global infectious disease surveillance through a focus on an important Canadian contribution to the area--the Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN). GPHIN is a cutting-edge initiative that draws on the capacity of the Internet and newly available 24/7 global news coverage of health events to create a unique form of early warning outbreak detection. This commentary outlines the operation and development of GPHIN and compares it to ProMED-mail, another Internet-based approach to global health surveillance. We argue that GPHIN has created an important shift in the relationship of public health and news information. By exiting the pyramid of official reporting, GPHIN has created a new monitoring technique that has disrupted national boundaries of outbreak notification, while creating new possibilities for global outbreak response. By incorporating news within the emerging apparatus of global infectious disease surveillance, GPHIN has effectively responded to the global media's challenge to official country reporting of outbreak and enhanced the effectiveness and credibility of international public health.

Using a neural network approach and time series data from an international monitoring station in the Yellow Sea for modeling marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingying; Wang, Juncheng; Vorontsov, A M; Hou, Guangli; Nikanorova, M N; Wang, Hongliang

2014-01-01

The international marine ecological safety monitoring demonstration station in the Yellow Sea was developed as a collaborative project between China and Russia. It is a nonprofit technical workstation designed as a facility for marine scientific research for public welfare. By undertaking long-term monitoring of the marine environment and automatic data collection, this station will provide valuable information for marine ecological protection and disaster prevention and reduction. The results of some initial research by scientists at the research station into predictive modeling of marine ecological environments and early warning are described in this paper. Marine ecological processes are influenced by many factors including hydrological and meteorological conditions, biological factors, and human activities. Consequently, it is very difficult to incorporate all these influences and their interactions in a deterministic or analysis model. A prediction model integrating a time series prediction approach with neural network nonlinear modeling is proposed for marine ecological parameters. The model explores the natural fluctuations in marine ecological parameters by learning from the latest observed data automatically, and then predicting future values of the parameter. The model is updated in a "rolling" fashion with new observed data from the monitoring station. Prediction experiments results showed that the neural network prediction model based on time series data is effective for marine ecological prediction and can be used for the development of early warning systems.

Drought monitoring and assessment: Remote sensing and modeling approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Bohms, Stefanie; Budde, Michael; Young, Claudia; Rowland, James; Verdin, James

2015-01-01

Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov. The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

Crowdsourcing of weather observations at national meteorological and hydrological services in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Pistotnik, Georg; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Csekits, Christian

2018-05-01

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) increase their efforts to deliver impact-based weather forecasts and warnings. At the same time, a desired increase in cost-efficiency prompts these services to automatize their weather station networks and to reduce the number of human observers, which leads to a lack of ground truth information about weather phenomena and their impact. A possible alternative is to encourage the general public to submit weather observations, which may include crucial information especially in high-impact situations. We wish to provide an overview of the state and properties of existing collaborations between NMHSs and voluntary weather observers or storm spotters across Europe. For that purpose, we performed a survey among 30 European NMHSs, from which 22 NMHSs returned our questionnaire. This study summarizes the most important findings and evaluates the use of crowdsourced information. 86 % of the surveyed NMHSs utilize information provided by the general public, 50 % have established official collaborations with spotter groups, and 18 % have formalized them. The observations are most commonly used for a real-time improvement of severe weather warnings, their verification, and an establishment of a climatology of severe weather events. The importance of these volunteered weather and impact observations has strongly risen over the past decade. We expect that this trend will continue and that storm spotters will become an essential part in severe weather warning, like they have been for decades in the United States of America. A rising number of incoming reports implies that quality management will become an increasing issue, and we finally discuss an idea how to handle this challenge.

A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

Warnings on alcohol containers and advertisements: international experience and evidence on effects.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Claire; Room, Robin

2009-07-01

In light of possible introduction of alcohol warning labels in Australia and New Zealand, this paper discusses the international experience with and evidence of effects of alcohol warning labels. The report describes international experience with providing information and warnings concerning the promotion or sale of alcoholic beverages, and considers the evidence on the effects of such information and warnings. The experience with and evaluations of the effects of tobacco warning labels are also considered. The most methodologically sound evaluations of alcohol warning labels are based on the US experience. Although these evaluations find little evidence that the introduction of the warning label in the USA had an impact on drinking behaviour, there is evidence that they led to an increase in awareness of the message they contained. In contrast, evaluations of tobacco warning labels find clear evidence of effects on behaviour. There is a need and opportunity for a rigorous evaluation of the impacts of introducing alcohol warning labels to add to the published work on their effectiveness. The experience with tobacco labels might guide the way for more effective alcohol warning labels. Alcohol warning labels are an increasingly popular alcohol policy initiative. It is clear that warning labels can be ineffective, but the tobacco experience suggests that effective warning labels are possible. Any introduction of alcohol warning labels should be evaluated in terms of effects on attitudes and behaviour.

78 FR 36817 - Proposed Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-19

...) accidents resulting from warning system failures can be reduced. Motorists lose faith in warning systems... greater risk of an accident is present when a warning system fails to activate as a train approaches a... device malfunctions. With this information, FRA is able to correlate accident data and equipment...

76 FR 32367 - Agency Information Collection Activities, Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Integrated Public...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-06

...; Integrated Public Alert and Warning Systems (IPAWS) Inventory AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency... proposed revision of the information collection concerning public alert and warning systems at the Federal... evaluation and assessment of existing public alert and warning resources and their integration with the...

A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

2014-12-01

Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the particle-tracking random walk method.

Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,

1993-01-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

2013-12-01

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the neighborhood of Naples at about 100 km from the Irpinia region.

Graphic health warnings as activators of social networks: A field experiment among individuals of low socioeconomic position.

PubMed

Ramanadhan, Shoba; Nagler, Rebekah H; McCloud, Rachel; Kohler, Racquel; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2017-02-01

Graphic health warnings (GHWs) on cigarette packages present an important tobacco control opportunity, particularly for vulnerable populations suffering a disproportionate tobacco burden. One mechanism by which GHWs may influence smoking outcomes is by prompting interpersonal discussions within health discussion networks (the set of personal contacts with whom an individual discusses health issues). The study examined the association between GHW-prompted conversations within health discussion networks and key tobacco-related outcomes, with attention to valence and content of the discussions. Between August 2013 and April 2014, we recruited 1200 individuals from three communities in Massachusetts, emphasizing recruitment of individuals of low socioeconomic position (SEP) and members of other selected vulnerable groups. Respondents were exposed to the nine GHWs proposed by the FDA in 2011, asked a series of questions, and assessed at follow-up a few weeks later. A total of 806 individuals were included in this analysis. About 51% of respondents reported having a health discussion network, with significantly lower reports among African-Americans and Hispanics compared to Whites. Around 70% of respondents (smokers and nonsmokers) with health discussion networks reported having one or more conversations about the GHWs with network members, the bulk of which were negative and focused on warning others about smoking. For smokers, we found a small but positive association between the percentage of network conversations that were negative and reports of quit attempts. The results point to a potential mechanism by which GHWs may impact tobacco-related outcomes, prompting further inquiry into the role of health discussion networks (and discussion networks, more broadly) in tobacco control among low SEP individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Graphic health warnings as activators of social networks: A field experiment among individuals of low socioeconomic position

PubMed Central

Ramanadhan, Shoba; Nagler, Rebekah H.; McCloud, Rachel; Kohler, Racquel; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2017-01-01

Rationale Graphic health warnings (GHWs) on cigarette packages present an important tobacco control opportunity, particularly for vulnerable populations suffering a disproportionate tobacco burden. One mechanism by which GHWs may influence smoking outcomes is by prompting interpersonal discussions within health discussion networks (the set of personal contacts with whom an individual discusses health issues). Objective The study examined the association between GHW-prompted conversations within health discussion networks and key tobacco-related outcomes, with attention to valence and content of the discussions. Method Between August 2013 and April 2014, we recruited 1200 individuals from three communities in Massachusetts, emphasizing recruitment of individuals of low socioeconomic position (SEP) and members of other selected vulnerable groups. Respondents were exposed to the nine GHWs proposed by the FDA in 2011, asked a series of questions, and assessed at follow-up a few weeks later. Results A total of 806 individuals were included in this analysis. About 51% of respondents reported having a health discussion network, with significantly lower reports among African-Americans and Hispanics compared to Whites. Around 70% of respondents (smokers and nonsmokers) with health discussion networks reported having one or more conversations about the GHWs with network members, the bulk of which were negative and focused on warning others about smoking. For smokers, we found a small but positive association between the percentage of network conversations that were negative and reports of quit attempts. Conclusion The results point to a potential mechanism by which GHWs may impact tobacco-related outcomes, prompting further inquiry into the role of health discussion networks (and discussion networks, more broadly) in tobacco control among low SEP individuals. PMID:28108053

Considerations and Future Research Directions for E-Cigarette Warnings—Findings from Expert Interviews

PubMed Central

Wackowski, Olivia A.; Hammond, David; O’Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

2017-01-01

Tobacco warning labels are important sources of risk information but research historically has been cigarette-centric. This qualitative study aimed to inform future direction and research on warnings for e-cigarettes. Between June and August 2016, we conducted interviews with 10 researchers with expertise in tobacco warning label research. Interviewees were registrants of a 2016 National Cancer Institute grantee meeting on tobacco warnings. Several participants agreed that the Food and Drug Administration’s new nicotine addiction warning for e-cigarettes could be informative but that it might not resonate with young people. Many agreed that more than one warning would be important as e-cigarette science evolves and that research on additional warning themes (e.g., nicotine exposure, harmful constituents) and execution styles (including use of pictorials) was important. Participants were somewhat mixed about the use of reduced-risk messages within e-cigarette warnings, but agreed that research on how to communicate about cigarette/e-cigarette relative risks was needed. Overall, more research is needed on tobacco warnings for non-cigarette products, including on the message content, placement, execution and potential impact on audiences’ product knowledge, risk perceptions and use intentions. This is particularly needed for products such as e-cigarettes which may have harm-reduction potential relative to cigarettes and require unique considerations. PMID:28708124

Alcohol consumers' attention to warning labels and brand information on alcohol packaging: Findings from cross-sectional and experimental studies.

PubMed

Kersbergen, Inge; Field, Matt

2017-01-26

Alcohol warning labels have a limited effect on drinking behavior, potentially because people devote minimal attention to them. We report findings from two studies in which we measured the extent to which alcohol consumers attend to warning labels on alcohol packaging, and aimed to identify if increased attention to warning labels is associated with motivation to change drinking behavior. Study 1 (N = 60) was an exploratory cross-sectional study in which we used eye-tracking to measure visual attention to brand and health information on alcohol and soda containers. In study 2 (N = 120) we manipulated motivation to reduce drinking using an alcohol brief intervention (vs control intervention) and measured heavy drinkers' attention to branding and warning labels with the same eye-tracking paradigm as in study 1. Then, in a separate task we experimentally manipulated attention by drawing a brightly colored border around health (or brand) information before measuring participants' self-reported drinking intentions for the subsequent week. Study 1 showed that participants paid minimal attention to warning labels (7% of viewing time). Participants who were motivated to reduce drinking paid less attention to alcohol branding and alcohol warning labels. Results from study 2 showed that the alcohol brief intervention decreased attention to branding compared to the control condition, but it did not affect attention to warning labels. Furthermore, the experimental manipulation of attention to health or brand information did not influence drinking intentions for the subsequent week. Alcohol consumers allocate minimal attention to warning labels on alcohol packaging and even if their attention is directed to these warning labels, this has no impact on their drinking intentions. The lack of attention to warning labels, even among people who actively want to cut down, suggests that there is room for improvement in the content of health warnings on alcohol packaging.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013.

PubMed

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric

2014-11-01

On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.

Globalisation and human dignity: the case of the information superhighway.

PubMed

Hamelink, C J

1996-01-01

In 1994, Vice President Al Gore coined the concept of the Information Superhighway during a speech in Buenos Aires in which he proposed the development of a global information infrastructure. The project envisions the incorporation of all existing communication networks into one system, facilitating the globalization of markets. The internet, a decentralized network of computer networks, is one small-scale, existing model of what the superhighway could be, a public space owned by nobody in which communication takes place largely for noncommercial purposes. The internet currently connects 40 million computer users from at least 90 countries. The alternative model for the superhighway is the privately managed global shopping mall, a global interactive marketplace for information, entertainment, and advertising. The author warns, however, that it is not possible to predict the future social impact of such an information superhighway. Decision makers nonetheless push ahead in development, full of confidence in the merit and infallibility of technology. Since one cannot accurately predict the future, it rational to assume that social consequences may both promote and threaten human dignity. The author explains at which level he believes the superhighway threatens the human rights norms of equality, inviolability, and liberty, and discusses what the World Association for Christian Communication can do.

Data update in a land information network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullin, Robin C.

1988-01-01

The on-going update of data exchanged in a land information network is examined. In the past, major developments have been undertaken to enable the exchange of data between land information systems. A model of a land information network and the data update process have been developed. Based on these, a functional description of the database and software to perform data updating is presented. A prototype of the data update process was implemented using the ARC/INFO geographic information system. This was used to test four approaches to data updating, i.e., bulk, block, incremental, and alert updates. A bulk update is performed by replacing a complete file with an updated file. A block update requires that the data set be partitioned into blocks. When an update occurs, only the blocks which are affected need to be transferred. An incremental update approach records each feature which is added or deleted and transmits only the features needed to update the copy of the file. An alert is a marker indicating that an update has occurred. It can be placed in a file to warn a user that if he is active in an area containing markers, updated data is available. The four approaches have been tested using a cadastral data set.

Deciphering deterioration mechanisms of complex diseases based on the construction of dynamic networks and systems analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuanyuan; Jin, Suoqin; Lei, Lei; Pan, Zishu; Zou, Xiufen

2015-03-01

The early diagnosis and investigation of the pathogenic mechanisms of complex diseases are the most challenging problems in the fields of biology and medicine. Network-based systems biology is an important technique for the study of complex diseases. The present study constructed dynamic protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks to identify dynamical network biomarkers (DNBs) and analyze the underlying mechanisms of complex diseases from a systems level. We developed a model-based framework for the construction of a series of time-sequenced networks by integrating high-throughput gene expression data into PPI data. By combining the dynamic networks and molecular modules, we identified significant DNBs for four complex diseases, including influenza caused by either H3N2 or H1N1, acute lung injury and type 2 diabetes mellitus, which can serve as warning signals for disease deterioration. Function and pathway analyses revealed that the identified DNBs were significantly enriched during key events in early disease development. Correlation and information flow analyses revealed that DNBs effectively discriminated between different disease processes and that dysfunctional regulation and disproportional information flow may contribute to the increased disease severity. This study provides a general paradigm for revealing the deterioration mechanisms of complex diseases and offers new insights into their early diagnoses.

Predictors for the Number of Warning Information Sources During Tornadoes.

PubMed

Cong, Zhen; Luo, Jianjun; Liang, Daan; Nejat, Ali

2017-04-01

People may receive tornado warnings from multiple information sources, but little is known about factors that affect the number of warning information sources (WISs). This study examined predictors for the number of WISs with a telephone survey on randomly sampled residents in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri, approximately 1 year after both cities were struck by violent tornadoes (EF4 and EF5) in 2011. The survey included 1006 finished interviews and the working sample included 903 respondents. Poisson regression and Zero-Inflated Poisson regression showed that older age and having an emergency plan predicted more WISs in both cities. Education, marital status, and gender affected the possibilities of receiving warnings and the number of WISs either in Joplin or in Tuscaloosa. The findings suggest that social disparity affects the access to warnings not only with respect to the likelihood of receiving any warnings but also with respect to the number of WISs. In addition, historical and social contexts are important for examining predictors for the number of WISs. We recommend that the number of WISs should be regarded as an important measure to evaluate access to warnings in addition to the likelihood of receiving warnings. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:168-172).

Enhanced chemical weapon warning via sensor fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaherty, Michael; Pritchett, Daniel; Cothren, Brian; Schwaiger, James

2011-05-01

Torch Technologies Inc., is actively involved in chemical sensor networking and data fusion via multi-year efforts with Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). The objective of these efforts is to develop innovative concepts and advanced algorithms that enhance our national Chemical Warfare (CW) test and warning capabilities via the fusion of traditional and non-traditional CW sensor data. Under Phase I, II, and III Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contracts with DPG, Torch developed the Advanced Chemical Release Evaluation System (ACRES) software to support non real-time CW sensor data fusion. Under Phase I and II SBIRs with DTRA in conjunction with the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC), Torch is using the DPG ACRES CW sensor data fuser as a framework from which to develop the Cloud state Estimation in a Networked Sensor Environment (CENSE) data fusion system. Torch is currently developing CENSE to implement and test innovative real-time sensor network based data fusion concepts using CW and non-CW ancillary sensor data to improve CW warning and detection in tactical scenarios.

Using popular films to enhance classroom learning: the good, the bad, and the interesting.

PubMed

Butler, Andrew C; Zaromb, Franklin M; Lyle, Keith B; Roediger, Henry L

2009-09-01

Popular history films sometimes contain major historical inaccuracies. Two experiments investigated how watching such films influences people's ability to remember associated texts. Subjects watched film clips and studied texts about various historical topics. Whereas the texts contained only correct information, the film clips contained both correct information (consistent with the text) and misinformation (contradicted by the text). Before watching each clip, subjects received a specific warning, a general warning, or no warning about the misinformation. One week later, they returned for a cued-recall test about the texts. Watching a film clip increased correct recall of consistent information relative to recall of the same information when subjects did not see the clip. However, when the information in the film contradicted the text, subjects often (falsely) recalled misinformation from the film. The specific warning substantially reduced this misinformation effect. Teachers should use popular history films with caution and should warn students about major inaccuracies in the films.

Physio-Environmental Sensing and Live Modeling

PubMed Central

Diaz, Vanessa; Gaggioli, Andrea; Liò, Pietro; Mazzà, Claudia; Merelli, Emanuela; Meskers, Carel G.M; Pappalardo, Francesco; von Ammon, Rainer

2013-01-01

In daily life, humans are constantly interacting with their environment. Evidence is emerging that this interaction is a very important modulator of health and well-being, even more so in our rapidly ageing society. Information and communication technology lies at the heart of the human health care revolution. It cannot remain acceptable to use out of date data analysis and predictive algorithms when superior alternatives exist. Communication network speed, high penetration of home broadband, availability of various mobile network options, together with the available detailed biological data for individuals, are producing promising advances in computerized systems that will turn information on human-environment interactions into actual knowledge with the potential to help make medical and lifestyle decisions. We introduced and discussed a key scenario in which hardware and software technologies capable of simultaneously sensing physiological and environmental signals process health care data in real-time to issue alarms, warnings, or simple recommendations to the patient or carers. PMID:23612245

Traffic sign recognition by color segmentation and neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surinwarangkoon, Thongchai; Nitsuwat, Supot; Moore, Elvin J.

2011-12-01

An algorithm is proposed for traffic sign detection and identification based on color filtering, color segmentation and neural networks. Traffic signs in Thailand are classified by color into four types: namely, prohibitory signs (red or blue), general warning signs (yellow) and construction area warning signs (amber). A color filtering method is first used to detect traffic signs and classify them by type. Then color segmentation methods adapted for each color type are used to extract inner features, e.g., arrows, bars etc. Finally, neural networks trained to recognize signs in each color type are used to identify any given traffic sign. Experiments show that the algorithm can improve the accuracy of traffic sign detection and recognition for the traffic signs used in Thailand.

Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madlazim

2012-06-20

Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a directmore » procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4-5 min after an earthquake occurs and thus can aid in effective, accuracy and reliable tsunami early warning for Indonesia region.« less

A new, ultra-low latency data transmission protocol for Earthquake Early Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, P.; Hicks, S. P.; McGowan, M.

2016-12-01

One measure used to assess the performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is the delay time between earthquake origin and issued alert. EEWS latency is dependent on a number of sources (e.g. P-wave propagation, digitisation, transmission, receiver processing, triggering, event declaration). Many regional seismic networks use the SEEDlink protocol; however, packet size is fixed to 512-byte miniSEED records, resulting in transmission latencies of >0.5 s. Data packetisation is seen as one of the main sources of delays in EEWS (Brown et al., 2011). Optimising data-logger and telemetry configurations is a cost-effective strategy to improve EEWS alert times (Behr et al., 2015). Digitisers with smaller, selectable packets can result in faster alerts (Sokos et al., 2016). We propose a new seismic protocol for regional seismic networks benefiting low-latency applications such as EEWS. The protocol, based on Güralp's existing GDI-link format is an efficient and flexible method to exchange data between seismic stations and data centers for a range of network configurations. The main principle is to stream data sample-by-sample instead of fixed-length packets to minimise transmission latency. Self-adaptive packetisation with compression maximises available telemetry bandwidth. Highly flexible metadata fields within GDI-link are compatible with existing miniSEED definitions. Data is sent as integers or floats, supporting a wide range of data formats, including discrete parameters such as Pd & τC for on-site earthquake early warning. Other advantages include: streaming station state-of-health information, instrument control, support of backfilling and fail-over strategies during telemetry outages. Based on tests carried out on the Güralp Minimus data-logger, we show our new protocol can reduce transmission latency to as low as 1 ms. The low-latency protocol is currently being implemented with common processing packages. The results of these tests will help to highlight latency levels that can be achieved with next-generation EEWS.

An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.

2009-12-01

For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become available. The results are also promising in terms of accuracy since epicenter coordinates, depth and magnitude estimates were sufficiently accurate from the very beginning, and usually do not differ substantially from the final solutions. In summary, automatic seismic event processing has shown to work well as a first step for starting a Tsunami Warning process. However, for the secured assessment of the tsunami potential of a given event, 24/7-manned regional TWCs are mandatory for reliable manual verification of the automatic seismic results. At this time, GFZ itself provides manual verification only when staff is available, not on a 24/7 basis, while the actual national tsunami warning centers have all a reliable 24/7 service.

The Quake Catcher Network: Cyberinfrastructure Bringing Seismology into Schools and Homes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E. S.

2007-12-01

We propose to implement a high density, low cost strong-motion network for rapid response and early warning by placing sensors in schools, homes, and offices. The Quake Catcher Network (QCN) will employ existing networked laptops and desktops to form the world's largest high-density, distributed computing seismic network. Costs for this network will be minimal because the QCN will use 1) strong motion sensors (accelerometers) already internal to many laptops and 2) nearly identical low-cost universal serial bus (USB) accelerometers for use with desktops. The Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC!) provides a free, proven paradigm for involving the public in large-scale computational research projects. As evidenced by the SETI@home program and others, individuals are especially willing to donate their unused computing power to projects that they deem relevant, worthwhile, and educational. The client- and server-side software will rapidly monitor incoming seismic signals, detect the magnitudes and locations of significant earthquakes, and may even provide early warnings to other computers and users before they can feel the earthquake. The software will provide the client-user with a screen-saver displaying seismic data recorded on their laptop, recently detected earthquakes, and general information about earthquakes and the geosciences. Furthermore, this project will install USB sensors in K-12 classrooms as an educational tool for teaching science. Through a variety of interactive experiments students will learn about earthquakes and the hazards earthquakes pose. For example, students can learn how the vibrations of an earthquake decrease with distance by jumping up and down at increasing distances from the sensor and plotting the decreased amplitude of the seismic signal measured on their computer. We hope to include an audio component so that students can hear and better understand the difference between low and high frequency seismic signals. The QCN will provide a natural way to engage students and the public in earthquake detection and research.

77 FR 55605 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-10

... requires quarterly reporting of early warning information: Production information; information on incidents... manufacturers, and other equipment manufacturers) and the annual production of the entity. The EWR information... vehicle type as part of [[Page 55608

Wusor II: A Computer Aided Instruction Program with Student Modelling Capabilities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-06-01

The Wun ,pus Advisor The Expert The Expert Chapter 3 Overview of the Expert From the work which was done on the expert of Wusor I, it was...network are numbered and represent caves. Circ led numbers represent caves which have been v is i ted by the player. To the top right of each v is i... ted cave is a marker for whether or not any warnings were sensed. (“U” indicates that a warn ing was sensed, and a “NW” means that a warning was not

Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

2017-08-01

China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

77 FR 71008 - Guidance for Industry: Enforcement Policy Concerning Rotational Warning Plans for Smokeless...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-28

...] Guidance for Industry: Enforcement Policy Concerning Rotational Warning Plans for Smokeless Tobacco... ``Enforcement Policy Concerning Rotational Warning Plans for Smokeless Tobacco Products,'' that was announced in... Concerning Rotational Warning Plans for Smokeless Tobacco Products.'' This guidance provided information to...

Eye-Tracking Evidence that Happy Faces Impair Verbal Message Comprehension: The Case of Health Warnings in Direct-to-Consumer Pharmaceutical Television Commercials

PubMed Central

Russell, Cristel Antonia; Swasy, John L.; Russell, Dale Wesley; Engel, Larry

2017-01-01

Risk warning or disclosure information in advertising is only effective in correcting consumers’ judgments if enough cognitive capacity is available to process that information. Hence, comprehension of verbal warnings in TV commercials may suffer if accompanied by positive visual elements. This research addresses this concern about cross-modality interference in the context of direct-to-consumer (DTC) pharmaceutical commercials in the United States by experimentally testing whether positive facial expressions reduce consumers’ understanding of the mandated health warning. A content analysis of a sample of DTC commercials reveals that positive facial expressions are more prevalent during the verbal warning act of the commercials than during the other acts. An eye-tracking experiment conducted with specially produced DTC commercials, which vary the valence of characters’ facial expressions during the health warning, provides evidence that happy faces reduce objective comprehension of the warning. PMID:29269979

Trusted Spotter Network Austria - a new standard to utilize crowdsourced weather and impact observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krennert, Thomas; Kaltenberger, Rainer; Pistotnik, Georg; Holzer, Alois M.; Zeiler, Franz; Stampfl, Mathias

2018-05-01

Information from voluntary storm spotters has been an increasingly important part for the severe weather warning process at the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie and Geodynamik (ZAMG), Austria's National Weather Service, for almost 15 years. In 2010 a collaboration was formalized and an annual training was established to educate voluntary observers into Trusted Spotters. The return of this investment is a higher credibility of their observations after these spotters have undergone a basic meteorological training and have become aware of their responsibility. The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) was included to this collaboration to adopt their successful quality control system of severe weather reports, which is employed in the European Severe Weather Database ESWD. That way, reports from Trusted Spotters automatically obtain a higher quality flag, which enables a faster processing by forecasters on duty for severe weather warnings, when time is a critical issue. The concept of combining training for voluntary storm spotters and a thorough quality management was recognized as a Best Practice Model by the European Meteorological Society. We propose to apply this concept also in other European countries and present its advancement into an even broader, pan-European approach. The European Weather Observer app EWOB, recently released by ESSL, provides a novel and easy-to-handle tool to submit weather and respective impact observations. We promote its use to provide better data and information for a further real-time improvement of severe weather warnings.

Data Delivery Latency Improvements And First Steps Towards The Distributed Computing Of The Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network Earthquake Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stubailo, I.; Watkins, M.; Devora, A.; Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, V. I.

2016-12-01

The USGS/Caltech Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) is a modern digital ground motion seismic network. It develops and maintains Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) data collection and delivery systems in southern California as well as real-time EEW algorithms. Recently, Behr et al., SRL, 2016 analyzed data from several regional seismic networks deployed around the globe. They showed that the SCSN was the network with the smallest data communication delays or latency. Since then, we have reduced further the telemetry delays for many of the 330 current sites. The latency has been reduced on average from 2-6 sec to 0.4 seconds by tuning the datalogger parameters and/or deploying software upgrades. Recognizing the latency data as one of the crucial parameters in EEW, we have started archiving the per-packet latencies in mseed format for all the participating sites in a similar way it is traditionally done for the seismic waveform data. The archived latency values enable us to understand and document long-term changes in performance of the telemetry links. We can also retroactively investigate how latent the waveform data were during a specific event or during a specific time period. In addition the near-real time latency values are useful for monitoring and displaying the real-time station latency, in particular to compare different telemetry technologies. A future step to reduce the latency is to deploy the algorithms on the dataloggers at the seismic stations and transmit either the final solutions or intermediate parameters to a central processing center. To implement this approach, we are developing a stand-alone version of the OnSite algorithm to run on the dataloggers in the field. This will increase the resiliency of the SCSN to potential telemetry restrictions in the immediate aftermath of a large earthquake, either by allowing local alarming by the single station, or permitting transmission of lightweight parametric information rather than continuous waveform data to the central processing facility. State-of-the-art development of Internet of Things (IoT) tools and platforms, which can be used to distribute and maintain software on a large number of remote devices are making this approach to earthquake early warning more feasible.

Auditory displays as occasion setters.

PubMed

Mckeown, Denis; Isherwood, Sarah; Conway, Gareth

2010-02-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate whether representational sounds that capture the richness of experience of a collision enhance performance in braking to avoid a collision relative to other forms of warnings in a driving simulator. There is increasing interest in auditory warnings that are informative about their referents. But as well as providing information about some intended object, warnings may be designed to set the occasion for a rich body of information about the outcomes of behavior in a particular context. These richly informative warnings may offer performance advantages, as they may be rapidly processed by users. An auditory occasion setter for a collision (a recording of screeching brakes indicating imminent collision) was compared with two other auditory warnings (an abstract and an "environmental" sound), a speech message, a visual display, and no warning in a fixed-base driving simulator as interfaces to a collision avoidance system. The main measure was braking response times at each of two headways (1.5 s and 3 s) to a lead vehicle. The occasion setter demonstrated statistically significantly faster braking responses at each headway in 8 out of 10 comparisons (with braking responses equally fast to the abstract warning at 1.5 s and the environmental warning at 3 s). Auditory displays that set the occasion for an outcome in a particular setting and for particular behaviors may offer small but critical performance enhancements in time-critical applications. The occasion setter could be applied in settings where speed of response by users is of the essence.

Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

2014-05-01

Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement of the earth flow site will be monitored by differential GPS to get high precision information on displacements of marked points. Photogrammtetry based on octocopter surveys will provide spatial information on movement patterns. A similar approach will be followed for the debris flow catchment. Here, the focus lies on a monitoring of the landslide failures in the source area which prepares the material for subsequent debris flow transport. In addition to the methods already mentioned, repeated terrestrial laserscanning campaigns will be used to monitor geomorphological changes at all sites. All important data, which can be single measurements, episodic or continuous monitoring data for a given point (e.g. rainfall, inclination) or of spatial character (e.g. LiDAR measurements), are collected and analysed on an external server. Automatic data analysis methods, such as progressive failure analysis, are carried out automatically based on field measurements. The data and results from all monitoring sites are visualised on a web-based platform which enables registered users to analyse the respective information in near-real-time. Moreover, thresholds can be determined which trigger automated warning messages to the involved scientists if thresholds are exceeded by field measurements. The described system will enable scientists and decision-makers to access the latest data from the monitoring systems. Automatic alarms are raised when thresholds are exceeded to inform them about potentially hazardous changes. Thereby, a more efficient hazard management and early warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, rockfall, debris flow, earth flow, monitoring, early warning system.

Networked sensors for the combat forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klager, Gene

2004-11-01

Real-time and detailed information is critical to the success of ground combat forces. Current manned reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (RSTA) capabilities are not sufficient to cover battlefield intelligence gaps, provide Beyond-Line-of-Sight (BLOS) targeting, and the ambush avoidance information necessary for combat forces operating in hostile situations, complex terrain, and conducting military operations in urban terrain. This paper describes a current US Army program developing advanced networked unmanned/unattended sensor systems to survey these gaps and provide the Commander with real-time, pertinent information. Networked Sensors for the Combat Forces plans to develop and demonstrate a new generation of low cost distributed unmanned sensor systems organic to the RSTA Element. Networked unmanned sensors will provide remote monitoring of gaps, will increase a unit"s area of coverage, and will provide the commander organic assets to complete his Battlefield Situational Awareness (BSA) picture for direct and indirect fire weapons, early warning, and threat avoidance. Current efforts include developing sensor packages for unmanned ground vehicles, small unmanned aerial vehicles, and unattended ground sensors using advanced sensor technologies. These sensors will be integrated with robust networked communications and Battle Command tools for mission planning, intelligence "reachback", and sensor data management. The network architecture design is based on a model that identifies a three-part modular design: 1) standardized sensor message protocols, 2) Sensor Data Management, and 3) Service Oriented Architecture. This simple model provides maximum flexibility for data exchange, information management and distribution. Products include: Sensor suites optimized for unmanned platforms, stationary and mobile versions of the Sensor Data Management Center, Battle Command planning tools, networked communications, and sensor management software. Details of these products and recent test results will be presented.

Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008.

PubMed

Miller, Caroline L; Quester, Pascale G; Hill, David J; Hiller, Janet E

2011-04-17

In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than other images. Representative samples of South Australian smokers were interviewed in four independent cross-sectional omnibus surveys; in 2005 (n=504), 2006 (n=525), 2007 (n=414) and 2008 (n=464). Unprompted recall of new graphic cigarette warnings was high in the months following their introduction, demonstrating that smokers' had been exposed to them. Smokers also demonstrated an increase in awareness about smoking-related diseases specific to the warning messages. Warnings that conveyed new information and had emotive images demonstrated greater impact on recall and smokers' beliefs than more familiar information and less emotive images. Overall graphic pack warnings have had the intended impact on smokers. Some have greater impact than others. The implications for policy makers in countries introducing similar warnings are that fresh messaging and visceral images have the greatest impact.

Smokers' recall of Australian graphic cigarette packet warnings & awareness of associated health effects, 2005-2008

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In 2006, Australia introduced graphic cigarette packet warnings. The new warnings include one of 14 pictures, many depicting tobacco-related pathology. The warnings were introduced in two sets; Set A in March and Set B from November. This study explores their impact on smokers' beliefs about smoking related illnesses. This study also examines the varying impact of different warnings, to see whether warnings with visceral images have greater impact on smokers' beliefs than other images. Methods Representative samples of South Australian smokers were interviewed in four independent cross-sectional omnibus surveys; in 2005 (n = 504), 2006 (n = 525), 2007 (n = 414) and 2008 (n = 464). Results Unprompted recall of new graphic cigarette warnings was high in the months following their introduction, demonstrating that smokers' had been exposed to them. Smokers also demonstrated an increase in awareness about smoking-related diseases specific to the warning messages. Warnings that conveyed new information and had emotive images demonstrated greater impact on recall and smokers' beliefs than more familiar information and less emotive images. Conclusions Overall graphic pack warnings have had the intended impact on smokers. Some have greater impact than others. The implications for policy makers in countries introducing similar warnings are that fresh messaging and visceral images have the greatest impact. PMID:21496314

Establishment of turbidity forecasting model and early-warning system for source water turbidity management using back-propagation artificial neural network algorithm and probability analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Tsung-Ming; Fan, Shu-Kai; Fan, Chihhao; Hsu, Nien-Sheng

2014-08-01

The purpose of this study is to establish a turbidity forecasting model as well as an early-warning system for turbidity management using rainfall records as the input variables. The Taipei Water Source Domain was employed as the study area, and ANOVA analysis showed that the accumulative rainfall records of 1-day Ping-lin, 2-day Ping-lin, 2-day Fei-tsui, 2-day Shi-san-gu, 2-day Tai-pin and 2-day Tong-hou were the six most significant parameters for downstream turbidity development. The artificial neural network model was developed and proven capable of predicting the turbidity concentration in the investigated catchment downstream area. The observed and model-calculated turbidity data were applied to developing the turbidity early-warning system. Using a previously determined turbidity as the threshold, the rainfall criterion, above which the downstream turbidity would possibly exceed this respective threshold turbidity, for the investigated rain gauge stations was determined. An exemplary illustration demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed turbidity early-warning system as a precautionary alarm of possible significant increase of downstream turbidity. This study is the first report of the establishment of the turbidity early-warning system. Hopefully, this system can be applied to source water turbidity forecasting during storm events and provide a useful reference for subsequent adjustment of drinking water treatment operation.

MUSIC algorithm DoA estimation for cooperative node location in mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warty, Chirag; Yu, Richard Wai; ElMahgoub, Khaled; Spinsante, Susanna

In recent years the technological development has encouraged several applications based on distributed communications network without any fixed infrastructure. The problem of providing a collaborative early warning system for multiple mobile nodes against a fast moving object. The solution is provided subject to system level constraints: motion of nodes, antenna sensitivity and Doppler effect at 2.4 GHz and 5.8 GHz. This approach consists of three stages. The first phase consists of detecting the incoming object using a highly directive two element antenna at 5.0 GHz band. The second phase consists of broadcasting the warning message using a low directivity broad antenna beam using 2× 2 antenna array which then in third phase will be detected by receiving nodes by using direction of arrival (DOA) estimation technique. The DOA estimation technique is used to estimate the range and bearing of the incoming nodes. The position of fast arriving object can be estimated using the MUSIC algorithm for warning beam DOA estimation. This paper is mainly intended to demonstrate the feasibility of early detection and warning system using a collaborative node to node communication links. The simulation is performed to show the behavior of detecting and broadcasting antennas as well as performance of the detection algorithm. The idea can be further expanded to implement commercial grade detection and warning system

A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2017-12-01

By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

2018-01-01

Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

Plain packaging increases visual attention to health warnings on cigarette packs in non-smokers and weekly smokers but not daily smokers.

PubMed

Munafò, Marcus R; Roberts, Nicole; Bauld, Linda; Leonards, Ute

2011-08-01

To assess the impact of plain packaging on visual attention towards health warning information on cigarette packs. Mixed-model experimental design, comprising smoking status as a between-subjects factor, and package type (branded versus plain) as a within-subjects factor. University laboratory. Convenience sample of young adults, comprising non-smokers (n = 15), weekly smokers (n = 14) and daily smokers (n = 14). Number of saccades (eye movements) towards health warnings on cigarette packs, to directly index visual attention. Analysis of variance indicated more eye movements (i.e. greater visual attention) towards health warnings compared to brand information on plain packs versus branded packs. This effect was observed among non-smokers and weekly smokers, but not daily smokers. Among non-smokers and non-daily cigarette smokers, plain packaging appears to increase visual attention towards health warning information and away from brand information. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

The Earthquake Early Warning System In Southern Italy: Performance Tests And Next Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Colombelli, S.; Emolo, A.; Festa, G.; Iannaccone, G.

2011-12-01

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is the software platform for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) in Southern Italy, that integrates recent algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment, into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation based on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet). PRESTo processes the live streams of 3C acceleration data for P-wave arrival detection and, while an event is occurring, promptly performs event detection and provides location, magnitude estimations and peak ground shaking predictions at target sites. The earthquake location is obtained by an evolutionary, real-time probabilistic approach based on an equal differential time formulation. At each time step, it uses information from both triggered and not-yet-triggered stations. Magnitude estimation exploits an empirical relationship that correlates it to the filtered Peak Displacement (Pd), measured over the first 2-4 s of P-signal. Peak ground-motion parameters at any distance can be finally estimated by ground motion prediction equations. Alarm messages containing the updated estimates of these parameters can thus reach target sites before the destructive waves, enabling automatic safety procedures. Using the real-time data streaming from the ISNet network, PRESTo has produced a bulletin for about a hundred low-magnitude events occurred during last two years. Meanwhile, the performances of the EEW system were assessed off-line playing-back the records for moderate and large events from Italy, Spain and Japan and synthetic waveforms for large historical events in Italy. These tests have shown that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo produces reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5-6 s from the event origin time (To). Estimates are provided as probability density functions whose uncertainty typically decreases with time, obtaining a stable solution within 10 s from To. The regional approach was recently integrated with a threshold-based early warning method for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the Potential Damaged Zone (PDZ) in which the highest intensity levels are expected. The dominant period Tau_c and the peak displacement (Pd) are simultaneously measured in a 3s window after the first P-arrival time. Pd and Tau_c are then compared with threshold values, previously established through an empirical regression analysis, that define a decisional table with four alert levels. According to the real-time measured values of Pd and tau_c, each station provides a local alert level that can be used to warn distant sites and to define the extent of the PDZ. The integrated system was validated off-line for the M6.3, 2009 Central Italy earthquake and ten large Japanese events, due to the low-magnitude events currently occurring in Irpinia. The results confirmed the feasibility and the robustness of such an approach, providing reliable predictions of the earthquake damaging effects, that is a relevant information for the efficient planning of the rescue operations in the immediate post-event emergency phase.

Guanfacine potentiates the activation of prefrontal cortex evoked by warning signals.

PubMed

Clerkin, Suzanne M; Schulz, Kurt P; Halperin, Jeffrey M; Newcorn, Jeffrey H; Ivanov, Iliyan; Tang, Cheuk Y; Fan, Jin

2009-08-15

Warning signals evoke an alert state of readiness that prepares for a rapid response by priming a thalamo-frontal-striatal network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Animal models indicate that noradrenergic input is essential for this stimulus-driven activation of DLPFC, but the precise mechanisms involved have not been determined. We tested the role that postsynaptic alpha(2A) adrenoceptors play in the activation of DLPFC evoked by warning cues using a placebo-controlled challenge with the alpha(2A) agonist guanfacine. Sixteen healthy young adults were scanned twice with event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), while performing a simple cued reaction time (RT) task following administration of a single dose of oral guanfacine (1 mg) and placebo in counterbalanced order. The RT task temporally segregates the neural effects of warning cues and motor responses and minimizes mnemonic demands. Warning cues produced a marked reduction in RT accompanied by significant activation in a distributed thalamo-frontal-striatal network, including bilateral DLPFC. Guanfacine selectively increased the cue-evoked activation of the left DLPFC and right anterior cerebellum, although this increase was not accompanied by further reductions in RT. The effects of guanfacine on DLPFC activation were specifically associated with the warning cue and were not seen for visual- or target-related activation. Guanfacine produced marked increases in the cue-evoked activation of DLPFC that correspond to the well-described actions of postsynaptic alpha(2) adrenoceptor stimulation. The current procedures provide an opportunity to test postsynaptic alpha(2A) adrenoceptor function in the prefrontal cortex in the pathophysiology of several psychiatric disorders.

Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

PubMed Central

Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

2014-01-01

Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

An integrated information system for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Loggia, Goffredo; Arnone, Elisa; Ciraolo, Giuseppe; Maltese, Antonino; Noto, Leonardo; Pernice, Umberto

2012-09-01

This paper reports the first results of the Project SESAMO - SistEma informativo integrato per l'acquisizione, geStione e condivisione di dati AMbientali per il supportO alle decisioni (Integrated Information System for the acquisition, management and sharing of environmental data aimed to decision making). The main aim of the project is to design and develop an integrated environmental information platform able to provide monitoring services for decision support, integrating data from different environmental monitoring systems (including WSN). This ICT platform, based on a service-oriented architecture (SOA), will be developed to coordinate a wide variety of data acquisition systems, based on heterogeneous technologies and communication protocols, providing different sort of environmental monitoring services. The implementation and validation of the SESAMO platform and its services will involve three specific environmental domains: 1) Urban water losses; 2) Early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides; 3) Precision irrigation planning. Services in the first domain are enabled by a low cost sensors network collecting and transmitting data, in order to allow the pipeline network managers to analyze pressure, velocity and discharge data for reducing water losses in an urban contest. This paper outlines the SESAMO functional and technological structure and then gives a concise description of the service design and development process for the second and third domain. Services in the second domain are enabled by a prototypal early warning system able to identify in near-real time high-risk zones of rainfall-induced landslides. Services in the third domain are aimed to optimize irrigation planning of vineyards depending on plant water stress.

A Mathematical Framework for Critical Transitions: Normal Forms, Variance and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuehn, Christian

2013-06-01

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast-subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension-two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.

Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): an alternate for nonstructural flood management in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Rashed

2005-06-01

Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts--the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh--and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS-i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis-has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.

Utility of High Temporal Resolution Observations for Heat Health Event Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palecki, M. A.

2017-12-01

Many heat health watch systems produce a binary on/off warning when conditions are predicted to exceed a given threshold during a day. Days with warnings and their mortality/morbidity statistics are analyzed relative to days not warned to determine the impacts of the event on human health, the effectiveness of warnings, and other statistics. The climate analyses of the heat waves or extreme temperature events are often performed with hourly or daily observations of air temperature, humidity, and other measured or derived variables, especially the maxima and minima of these data. However, since the beginning of the century, 5-minute observations are readily available for many weather and climate stations in the United States. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has been collecting 5-minute observations from the NOAA Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) stations since 2000, and from the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations since 2005. This presentation will demonstrate the efficacy of utilizing 5-minute environmental observations to characterize heat waves by counting the length of time conditions exceed extreme thresholds based on individual and multiple variables and on derived variables such as the heat index. The length and depth of recovery periods between daytime heating periods will also be examined. The length of time under extreme conditions will influence health outcomes for those directly exposed. Longer periods of dangerous conditions also could increase the chances for poor health outcomes for those only exposed intermittently through cumulative impacts.

Using internet GIS technology for early warning, response and controlling the quality of the public health sector.

PubMed

Ptochos, Dimitrios; Panopoulos, Dimitrios; Metaxiotis, Kostas; Askounis, Dimitrios

2004-01-01

Recent EU and Greek Government legislation highlights the need for the modernisation of the public health management system and the improvement of the overall health of EU citizens. In addition, the effusion of epidemics even in developed countries makes the need for the enhancement of public health services imperative. In order to best confront the above-described challenges, the National Technical University of Athens, in cooperation with the Greek Ministry of Health and Welfare and the European Commission (EC), designed and developed an integrated public health information network, named GEPIMI (Integrated Geographical System for EPIdemiological and other Medical Information), in the framework of a three-year pilot project. This pilot project, funded by Greek Ministry of Health and Welfare and the EC supported the Programme INTERREG II to establish an advanced and integrated web-based information system that can process and move information in real time, allowing public health authorities to monitor events at hundreds or thousands of public health facilities at once. The system is established among hospitals, primary healthcare authorities and health agents in Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, Fyrom, and Turkey. The project aims at demonstrating the best practices, prospects, applications and high potential of Telematics Healthcare Networks in Europe, with a view to promoting cooperation and interconnection between European communities in the field of Telematics Healthcare Applications. The GEPIMI System, implemented via an innovative web based system, constitutes a replication of a highly effective mechanism. It incorporates state-of-the-art technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (G.I.S.), web based databases, GPS, and Smart Card Technology and supports a variety of health-related web applications including early warning and response of epidemics, remote management of medical records, seamless healthcare coverage, comprehensive statistical analysis of data, decision-making procedures, inter-communication between international scientific fora and other.

COMMUNICATING RISK IN THE CONTEXT OF METHADONE FORMULATION CHANGES: A QUALITATIVE STUDY OF OVERDOSE WARNING POSTERS IN VANCOUVER, CANADA

PubMed Central

Markwick, Nicole; McNeil, Ryan; Anderson, Solanna; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND British Columbia, Canada’s provincial methadone program recently replaced their existing methadone formulation with a formulation ten times more concentrated. The transition raised concerns about heightened risk of accidental overdose, leading two organizations to disseminate methadone overdose warning posters during the transitional period. This study explores people who use drugs’ (PWUD) perceptions of these warning posters. METHODS Qualitative interviews were conducted with thirty-four PWUD enrolled in methadone maintenance treatment in Vancouver. Participants were recruited from ongoing cohort studies of drug-using individuals. Interview transcripts were analyzed thematically, focusing on participants’ perceptions of the warning posters and potential impacts on drug-related risks. RESULTS Overdose warning posters constituted a key source of information about the methadone formulation change, but did not provide adequate information for all participants. Participants articulated a preference for descriptive language, focusing on changes in concentration rather than “strength”, and universal hazard symbols to effectively communicate overdose risks. CONCLUSION Participants indicated that warnings employing descriptive language more effectively communicated risk of methadone overdose. Future overdose warnings for drug-using populations must provide adequate information for the intended audience, and be communicated to PWUD through multiple channels. PMID:26644025

Improved Intelligence Warning in an Age of Complexity

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-21

at, and applying complexity science to this problem, which is represented by a multidiscipline study of large networks comprised of interdependent...For analysts and policy makers, complexity science offers methods to improve this understanding. As said by Ms. Irene Sanders, director of the... science to improve intelligence warning. The initial section describes how policy makers and national security leaders understand the current

Adapting ElarmS Earthquake Early Warnings for Cascadia: Development and Testing of ShakeAlerts in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartog, J. R.; Kress, V. C.; Thomas, T.; Malone, S. D.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2013-12-01

As a first step in establishing an earthquake early warning system in Cascadia, we have installed the ElarmS component of the ShakeAlert system at the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. In Cascadia our initial focus is primarily on the development of a seismo-geodetic-based real-time finite fault rupture algorithm to detect and characterize a large plate-boundary rupture in progress (see Crowell et. al., this session). In this regard the goal of the purely seismic-data-based ElarmS implementation is to 'trigger' the finite fault rupture algorithm. At the same time, however, the Cascadian ElarmS will also produce warnings for smaller onshore crustal earthquakes. While warnings from these smaller and closer earthquakes will provide shorter warning times for communities, and for less dramatic earthquakes, we intend to use them for educational purposes, and to coordinate with our regional and collaborating partners. They will also help to guide us to shorten data latencies and learn where additional instrumentation is most needed to increase performance. The accuracy of ElarmS in Cascadia is another major concern, because the current ElarmS model presumes an initial focal depth for earthquakes of 8 km based on California experience, while in Cascadia earthquakes of major concern may be as deep as 50 km, and/or occur beyond the western fringe of the seismic network. To this purpose our testing protocol is aimed at determining what changes are required to ensure top performance of an ElarmS-based warning system in Cascadia. Because of Cascadia's relatively low seismicity rate, and the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes there of any size, we have prioritized the development of a test system. The test system permits us to: 1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and contributing seismic network stations to represent both earthquakes and noise conditions, and 2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we anticipate from earthquakes for which we have no actual ground motion recordings. The test system lets us also simulate various error conditions (latent and/or out-of-sequence data, telemetry drop-outs, etc.) to explore how to protect the system from them. We have also been testing the ElarmS system on real-time seismic network data for about 6 months as of the time of writing of this abstract. Using 268 channels of streaming strong motion and broad-band data, the system has produced very few false alarms and generally performed well for earthquakes between about magnitudes 2.5 and 4.5. Warning times are shorter (and the 'blind zone' smaller) in parts of the network where station density is higher and/or telemetry more fleet. One significant problem we find is that the discriminant used in northern California to differentiate local earthquake signals from teleseisms often fails in Cascadia. We are working to produce a valid teleseism detector.

Development of systems for detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage in drinking water distribution: a case study.

PubMed

Li, Weifeng; Ling, Wencui; Liu, Suoxiang; Zhao, Jing; Liu, Ruiping; Chen, Qiuwen; Qiang, Zhimin; Qu, Jiuhui

2011-01-01

Water leakage in drinking water distribution systems is a serious problem for many cities and a huge challenge for water utilities. An integrated system for the detection, early warning, and control of pipeline leakage has been developed and successfully used to manage the pipeline networks in selected areas of Beijing. A method based on the geographic information system has been proposed to quickly and automatically optimize the layout of the instruments which detect leaks. Methods are also proposed to estimate the probability of each pipe segment leaking (on the basis of historic leakage data), and to assist in locating the leakage points (based on leakage signals). The district metering area (DMA) strategy is used. Guidelines and a flowchart for establishing a DMA to manage the large-scale looped networks in Beijing are proposed. These different functions have been implemented into a central software system to simplify the day-to-day use of the system. In 2007 the system detected 102 non-obvious leakages (i.e., 14.2% of the total detected in Beijing) in the selected areas, which was estimated to save a total volume of 2,385,000 m3 of water. These results indicate the feasibility, efficiency and wider applicability of this system.

Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin

2014-05-01

EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real-time detection of significant earthquakes from Vrancea and Transylvania areas that occurred in the last months. Currently the warning notification is sent to several users including emergency response units from 12 counties, a big bridge located in Bucharest, a nuclear sterilization facility in Măgurele city and to the nuclear power plant from Cernavoda.

76 FR 70971 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Societal Response to Tornado Warnings

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

... developing social science, wishes to examine the societal impacts of tornado warnings, specifically the methods of receipt, response, and the impact of false alarms on the rate in which protective actions are... ). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Requests for additional information or copies of the information...

The North Warning System: A Canadian military SATCOM success

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wawryk, Ivan J.

The strategic threat to North America presented by modern, supersonic bombers and long range cruise missiles has stimulated a modernization of atmospheric defence capability. The North Warning System (NWS), employs a chain of microwave radars across the Arctic and down the east coast of Canada to provide tactical warning and attack assessment information to NORAD and its forces. The responsibility for NWS facilities construction and communications is allocated to Canada. Earlier investigations in Canada and the U.S. had confirmed that an all satellite communications system to link the 47 Canadian NWS radars to command and control centers was more economical than any terrestrial alternative. A project was undertaken by the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) to acquire and install an integrated, digital satellite communications system for the NWS. This paper outlines the project background and procurement process. System requirements and specifications are discussed and the communications system is described in some detail. The communications equipment will be required to function unmanned in extreme Arctic conditions for extended periods. Specifications called for a long haul communications network (LHCN), a maintenance control system to monitor and control the equipment, and a suite of on-site communications for each location. The LHCN is a fully integrated, redundant satellite system which employs a transponder on each of the Anik D satellites. Either transponder can carry the full communications load. The system is configured as a star network with the hub at North Bay. Five remote stations and the North Bay facility have been built in phase one of the project; the second phase will see the construction of 36 unattended stations across the Arctic and down the Baffin Island and Labrador coasts.

Alcohol Warning Posters: How To Get Legislation Passed in Your City.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Science in the Public Interest, Washington, DC.

This manual was developed to assist citizens seeking alcohol warning posters wherever alcoholic beverages are sold. Warning posters can include health information about drinking during pregnancy, the danger of using alcohol while driving or using machinery, or alcohol dependency and addiction. Warning posters are now required in cities such as New…

U.S. Tsunami Warning System: Advancements since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.

2009-12-01

The U.S. government embarked on a strengthening program for the U.S. Tsunami Warning System (TWS) in the aftermath of the disastrous 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The program was designed to improve several facets of the U.S. TWS, including: upgrade of the coastal sea level network - 16 new stations plus higher transmission rates; expansion of the deep ocean tsunameter network - 7 sites increased to 39; upgrade of seismic networks - both USGS and Tsunami Warning Center (TWC); increase of TWC staff to allow 24x7 coverage at two centers; development of an improved tsunami forecast system; increased preparedness in coastal communities; expansion of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center facility; and improvement of the tsunami data archive effort at the National Geophysical Data Center. The strengthening program has been completed and has contributed to the many improvements attained in the U.S. TWS since 2004. Some of the more significant enhancements to the program are: the number of sea level and seismic sites worldwide available to the TWCs has more than doubled; the TWC areas-of-responsibility expanded to include the U.S./Canadian Atlantic coasts, Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. Arctic coast; event response time decreased by approximately one-half; product accuracy has improved; a tsunami forecast system developed by NOAA capable of forecasting inundation during an event has been delivered to the TWCs; warning areas are now defined by pre-computed or forecasted threat versus distance or travel time, significantly reducing the amount of coast put in a warning; new warning dissemination techniques have been implemented to reach a broader audience in less time; tsunami product content better reflects the expected impact level; the number of TsunamiReady communities has quadrupled; and the historical data archive has increased in quantity and accuracy. In addition to the strengthening program, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) has expanded its efforts since 2004 and improved tsunami preparedness throughout U.S. coastal communities. The NTHMP is a partnership of federal agencies and state tsunami response agencies whose efforts include: development of inundation and evacuation maps for most highly threatened communities; tsunami evacuation and educational signage for coastal communities; support for tsunami educational, awareness and planning seminars; increased number of local tsunami warning dissemination devices such as sirens; and support for regional tsunami exercises. These activities are major factors that have contributed to the increase of TsunamiReady communities throughout the country.

77 FR 18250 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Experimental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-27

... of information technology. Experimental Study of Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels--(OMB Control... graphic warnings required by the Tobacco Control Act. The experimental study data will be collected from...] Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Experimental Study of...

Research on fatigue driving pre-warning system based on multi-information fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xuyang; Ye, Wenwu

2018-05-01

With the development of science and technology, transportation network has grown faster. But at the same time, the quantity of traffic accidents due to fatigue driving grows faster as well. In the meantime, fatigue driving has been one of the main causes of traffic accidents. Therefore, it is indispensable for us to study the detection of fatigue driving to help to driving safety. There are numerous approaches in discrimination method. Each type of method has its reasonable theoretical basis, but the disadvantages of traditional fatigue driving detection methods have been more and more obvious since we study the traditional physiology and psychological features of fatigue drivers. So we set up a new system based on multi-information fusion and pattern recognition theory. In the paper, the fatigue driving pre-warning system discriminates fatigue by analyzing the characteristic parameters, the parameters derived from the steering wheel angle, the driver's power of gripping and the heart rate. And the data analysis system is established based on fuzzy C-means clustering theory. Finally, KNN classifier is used to establish the relation between feature indexes and fatigue degree. It is verified that the system has the better accuracy, agility and robustness according to our confirmatory experiment.

Review of FEWS NET Biophysical Monitoring Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, K. W.; Brown, Molly E.; Verdin, J.; Underwood, L. W.

2009-01-01

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users: it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and; subsequently, beneficial FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world, enabling a robust set of professional perspectives to be gathered and analyzed rapidly. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard: that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand, and that rainfall and vegetation products were valued as data that provide actionable food security information.

Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

Reducing online identity disclosure using warnings.

PubMed

Carpenter, Sandra; Zhu, Feng; Kolimi, Swapna

2014-09-01

In an experimental design, we tested whether written warnings can reduce the amount of identity information exposure online. A psychological attack on information privacy that has been shown to be effective in previous research was launched. This attack took advantage of the fact that people respond to certain types of requests in a relatively automatic, or mindless, fashion. The experiment manipulated the word that was used in the alert header: "warning", "caution", or "hazard". All warnings proved to be effective in reducing disclosure, but "hazard" proved to be most effective. Also warnings were more effective in reducing disclosure of driver's license numbers than email addresses. The discussion (a) provides tentative conclusions why these patterns were obtained, (b) suggests how to design warnings in cyber-environments, and (c) addresses future possibilities for research on this topic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

PubMed

Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

2013-02-01

Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

Wide area sensor network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Sanjoy; Nix, Tricia; Junker, Robert; Brentano, Josef; Khona, Dhiren

2006-05-01

The technical concept for this project has existed since the Chernobyl accident in 1986. A host of Eastern European nations have developed countrywide grid of sensors to monitor airborne radiation. The objective is to build a radiological sensor network for real-time monitoring of environmental radiation levels in order to provide data for warning, and consequentially the assessment of a nuclear event. A network of radiation measuring equipment consisting of gamma, neutron, alpha, and beta counters would be distributed over a large area (preferably on fire station roof tops) and connected by a wireless network to the emergency response center. The networks would be deployed in urban environments and would supply first responders and federal augmentation teams (including those from the U.S. Departments of Energy, Defense, Justice, and Homeland Security) with detailed, accurate information regarding the transport of radioactive environmental contaminants, so the agencies can provide a safe and effective response. A networked sensor capability would be developed, with fixed sensors deployed at key locations and in sufficient numbers, to provide adequate coverage for early warning, and input to post-event emergency response. An overall system description and specification will be provided, including detector characteristics, communication protocols, infrastructure and maintenance requirements, and operation procedures. The system/network can be designed for a specifically identified urban area, or for a general urban area scalable to cities of specified size. Data collected via the network will be transmitted directly to the appropriate emergency response center and shared with multiple agencies via the Internet or an Intranet. The data collected will be managed using commercial off - the - shelf Geographical Information System (GIS). The data will be stored in a database and the GIS software will aid in analysis and management of the data. Unique features of the system include each node being assigned a health-effect based risk factor. By connecting the nodes on a particular measured isopleth one can define the plume accurately. Radon counts will be provided and used to calculate the alpha counts. The radiological data collected will also be of value under routine conditions, in the absence of a radiological threat, to provide a detailed map of radiation background in the urban environment and complement predictive models of radiation transport. The data can be transferred to the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) to augment its predictive model, thereby increasing its fidelity. Initially, as a proof of concept, a few nodes will be built for the purpose of demonstrating the concept.

Do drug warnings and market withdrawals have an impact on the number of calls to teratogen information services?

PubMed

Sheehy, O; Gendron, M-P; Martin, B; Bérard, A

2012-06-01

IMAGe provides information on risks and benefits of medication use during pregnancy and lactation. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of Health Canada warnings on the number of calls received at IMAGe. We analyzed calls received between January 2003 and March 2008. The impact of the following warning/withdrawal were studied: paroxetine and risk of cardiac malformations (09/29/2005), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and risk of persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) (03/10/2006), and impact of rofecoxib market withdrawal (09/30/2004). Interrupted auto-regressive integrated -moving average (ARIMA) analyses were used to test the impact of each warning on the number of calls received to IMAGe. 61,505 calls were analyzed. The paroxetine warning had a temporary impact increasing the overall number of calls to IMAGe, and an abrupt permanent effect on the number of calls related to antidepressant exposures. The PPHN warning had no impact but we observed a significant increase in the number of calls following rofecoxib market withdrawal. Health Canada needs to consider the increase in the demand of information to IMAGe following warnings on the risk of medication use during pregnancy. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

2016-04-01

On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams for which the warnings are issued. This paper aims to explain how this indicator has been created and to assess its relevance with the example of the 3rd October 2015 flood. By completing this approach, the AIGA warnings may characterize not only the flood hazard but more inclusively the risk of flooding, allowing to forecast this type of event. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Pansu, J., & Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Reliability Analysis of a Glacier Lake Warning System Using a Bayesian Net

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturny, Rouven A.; Bründl, Michael

2013-04-01

Beside structural mitigation measures like avalanche defense structures, dams and galleries, warning and alarm systems have become important measures for dealing with Alpine natural hazards. Integrating them into risk mitigation strategies and comparing their effectiveness with structural measures requires quantification of the reliability of these systems. However, little is known about how reliability of warning systems can be quantified and which methods are suitable for comparing their contribution to risk reduction with that of structural mitigation measures. We present a reliability analysis of a warning system located in Grindelwald, Switzerland. The warning system was built for warning and protecting residents and tourists from glacier outburst floods as consequence of a rapid drain of the glacier lake. We have set up a Bayesian Net (BN, BPN) that allowed for a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis. The Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) of the BN were determined according to manufacturer's reliability data for each component of the system as well as by assigning weights for specific BN nodes accounting for information flows and decision-making processes of the local safety service. The presented results focus on the two alerting units 'visual acoustic signal' (VAS) and 'alerting of the intervention entities' (AIE). For the summer of 2009, the reliability was determined to be 94 % for the VAS and 83 % for the AEI. The probability of occurrence of a major event was calculated as 0.55 % per day resulting in an overall reliability of 99.967 % for the VAS and 99.906 % for the AEI. We concluded that a failure of the VAS alerting unit would be the consequence of a simultaneous failure of the four probes located in the lake and the gorge. Similarly, we deduced that the AEI would fail either if there were a simultaneous connectivity loss of the mobile and fixed network in Grindelwald, an Internet access loss or a failure of the regional operations centre. However, the probability of a common failure of these components was assumed to be low. Overall it can be stated that due to numerous redundancies, the investigated warning system is highly reliable and its influence on risk reduction is very high. Comparable studies in the future are needed to classify these results and to gain more experience how the reliability of warning systems could be determined in practice.

Responsiveness of Food Security Reporting to Environmental Variability and Agricultural Production Deficits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brickley, E. B.; Brown, M. E.

2010-12-01

This paper uses 1342 food security update reports from the US Agency for International Development (USAID)’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) in an analysis that focuses on the environmental, market, and livelihood influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. A textual analysis was conducted using the reports as a primary data source to evaluate the responsiveness of food security analysis to environmental variability and food production deficits. The research shows that FEWS NET analysts demonstrate a consistent approach across all 17 countries as to the discussion and use of rainfall information, agricultural production, food prices and food access parameters. There are significant differences in the use of remote sensing and other technical information between East, West and Southern African country analysts, with satellite remote sensing of vegetation being used 28% of the time, rainfall imagery 84% and gridded crop models only 10% of the time. Significantly more discussion of biophysical information was seen during the rainy season than during the dry season, and different satellite products were used during periods of drought than periods of adequate moisture. As the demand for early warning information grows to more countries in different ecosystems, there is likely to be an increased need for the effective utilization of remote sensing, market, and livelihood data, and it is also probable that this information will be critical for improved policy-making regarding climate extremes in the future.

The ironic effect of guessing: increased false memory for mediated lists in younger and older adults

PubMed Central

Coane, Jennifer H.; Huff, Mark J.; Hutchison, Keith A.

2016-01-01

Younger and older adults studied lists of words directly (e.g., creek, water) or indirectly (e.g., beaver, faucet) related to a nonpresented critical lure (CL; e.g., river). Indirect (i.e., mediated) lists presented items that were only related to CLs through nonpresented mediators (i.e., directly related items). Following study, participants completed a condition-specific task, math, a recall test with or without a warning about the CL, or tried to guess the CL. On a final recognition test, warnings (vs. math and recall without warning) decreased false recognition for direct lists, and guessing increased mediated false recognition (an ironic effect of guessing) in both age groups. The observed age-invariance of the ironic effect of guessing suggests that processes involved in mediated false memory are preserved in aging and confirms the effect is largely due to activation in semantic networks during encoding and to the strengthening of these networks during the interpolated tasks. PMID:26393390

The ironic effect of guessing: increased false memory for mediated lists in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Coane, Jennifer H; Huff, Mark J; Hutchison, Keith A

2016-01-01

Younger and older adults studied lists of words directly (e.g., creek, water) or indirectly (e.g., beaver, faucet) related to a nonpresented critical lure (CL; e.g., river). Indirect (i.e., mediated) lists presented items that were only related to CLs through nonpresented mediators (i.e., directly related items). Following study, participants completed a condition-specific task, math, a recall test with or without a warning about the CL, or tried to guess the CL. On a final recognition test, warnings (vs. math and recall without warning) decreased false recognition for direct lists, and guessing increased mediated false recognition (an ironic effect of guessing) in both age groups. The observed age-invariance of the ironic effect of guessing suggests that processes involved in mediated false memory are preserved in aging and confirms the effect is largely due to activation in semantic networks during encoding and to the strengthening of these networks during the interpolated tasks.

People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

2009-04-01

In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to hazard assessment and emergency response. Great importance is attached to the scientific understanding of hazards and protective structures, while analysis of socio-economic impacts and risk assessment are not considered enough. The reduction of vulnerability has to be taken into greater account. Also the information needs of different stakeholders have to be identified at an early stage and should be integrated in the development of early warning systems. The content of the warning message must be simple, understandable and should cover instructions on how to react. Further the timeliness of the messages has to be guarented. In this context the aim of the landslide monitoring and early warning system SLEWS (Sensor Based Landslide Early Warning System) is to integrate the above mentioned aspects of a holistic disaster and risk management. The technology of spatial data infrastructures and web services provides the use of multiple communication channels within an early warning system. Thus people-centred early warning messages and information about slope stability can be sent in nearly real-time. It has to be underlined that the technological information process is just one element of an effective warning system. Moreover the warning system has also to be considered as a social system and has to make allowance to socio-economic and gender aspects : «[...] Develop early warning systems that are people centered, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision makers » (Hyogo Framework, 2005) References : UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION SECRETARIAT (UNISDR) (2006): Developing early warning systems: a checklist, Third international conference on early warning (EWC III): from concept to action: 27-29 March 2006, Bonn, Germany. Geneva, Switzerland: International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. WORLD CONFERENCE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (2005) : Report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction: Kobe, Hyogo, Japan, 18-22 January 2005. Geneva, Switzerland, Secretariat, World Conference on Disaster Reduction. INTER-AGENCY SECRETARIAT OF THE ISDR & GLOBAL PLATFORM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (2007): Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Geneva, UN, ISDR.

Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

2011-12-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process, NIDIS is working with existing regional and local networks to develop outlook forums as part of an integrated process that involves closer coordination of drought monitoring among federal, state, and local groups; a research component that can address gaps in understanding that are identified in the outlook forum process; a drought information portal (www.drought.gov) for improving communication; an education and outreach component that improves understanding to apply the information; and close coordination with the preparedness community that includes state and local planners for improved mainstreaming of the information into decisions and policies. These components allow for a mutual learning process that encourages critical assessment of the information, builds trust and identifies how information is used to reduce vulnerability and risk associated with the impacts of drought. This process also identifies the key contacts in the region that can maximize dissemination of the information including local media, and provides an ongoing dialogue that allows for feedback and improvement of the process.

Improved quality of care for patients infected or colonised with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in a French teaching hospital: impact of an interventional prospective study and development of specific tools.

PubMed

Mondain, Véronique; Lieutier, Florence; Pulcini, Céline; Degand, Nicolas; Landraud, Luce; Ruimy, Raymond; Fosse, Thierry; Roger, Pierre Marie

2018-05-01

The increasing incidence of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) in France prompted the publication of national recommendations in 2010. Based on these, we developed a toolkit and a warning system to optimise management of ESBL-E infected or colonised patients in both community and hospital settings. The impact of this initiative on quality of care was assessed in a teaching hospital. The ESBL toolkit was developed in 2011 during multidisciplinary meetings involving a regional network of hospital, private clinic and laboratory staff in Southeastern France. It includes antibiotic treatment protocols, a check list, mail templates and a patient information sheet focusing on infection control. Upon identification of ESBL-E, the warning system involves alerting the attending physician and the infectious disease (ID) advisor, with immediate, advice-based implementation of the toolkit. The procedure and toolkit were tested in our teaching hospital. Patient management was compared before and after implementation of the toolkit over two 3-month periods (July-October 2010 and 2012). Implementation of the ESBL-E warning system and ESBL-E toolkit was tested for 87 patients in 2010 and 92 patients in 2012, resulting in improved patient management: expert advice sought and followed (16 vs 97%), information provided to the patient's general practitioner (18 vs 63%) and coding of the condition in the patient's medical file (17 vs 59%), respectively. Our multidisciplinary strategy improved quality of care for in-patients infected or colonised with ESBL-E, increasing compliance with national recommendations.

Implementation of warnings from Dear Doctor Letters (Rote-Hand-Briefe): an analysis of medication data from a large cohort of elderly patients.

PubMed

Schächtele, Simone; Tümena, Thomas; Gaßmann, Karl-Günter; Fromm, Martin F; Maas, Renke

2014-04-11

Dear Doctor Letters (also known as Direct Healthcare Professional Communications) inform physicians about significant newly discovered drug risks and about measures to take to reduce these risks. How far these warnings actually influence prescribing behavior is unclear. The Geriatrics in Bavaria-Database (GiB-DAT, Geriatrie in Bayern Datenbank) collects data from more than 50 centers offering inpatient geriatric health care. Based on GiB-DAT data, the discharge medication of 76 568 patients (81 ± 8 years, 67% women) was recorded in a standardized manner and analyzed for the implementation of information contained in two Dear Doctor Letters about the risks of dose-related or drug interaction-related QT interval prolongation caused by citalopram or escitalopram. Patients were discharged with a median of 8 drugs. In the four quarters of 2012 following release of the Dear Doctor Letters, in comparison to the four quarters before their publication, a marked drop from 9.8% to 4.1% was seen in prescriptions for >20 mg/day citalopram--a dosage no longer recommended in elderly patients--and a similar drop from 23.6% to 12.8% in prescriptions for >10 mg/day escitalopram (p<0.0001). Co-prescription of either of these two drugs with other QT interval-prolonging drugs, which was now contraindicated, remained almost unchanged (citalopram: 19.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 17.9-20.9%] versus 18.4% [95% CI: 17.0-19.8%]; escitalopram: 17.6% [95% CI: 15.8-19.6%] versus 17.1% [95% CI: 14.5-19.9%]). Simple information in Dear Doctor Letters, such as a reduction of the maximum daily dose, was better implemented than complicated information regarding contraindicated co-medication. Quality assurance systems such as the GiB-DAT network make it possible to identify problems of this kind. Licensing authorities and pharmaceutical companies should should improve the clinical usability, e.g., by providing official reference lists of drugs with safety warnings.

Cigarette graphic warning labels increase both risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement.

PubMed

Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Tusler, Martin

2018-02-01

Cigarette graphic warning labels elicit negative emotion, which increases risk perceptions through multiple processes. We examined whether this emotion simultaneously affects motivated cognitions like smoking myth endorsement (e.g. 'exercise can undo the negative effects of smoking') and perceptions of cigarette danger versus other products. 736 adult and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers viewed one of three warning label types (text-only, low emotion graphic or high emotion graphic) four times over two weeks. Emotional reactions to the warnings were reported during the first and fourth exposures. Participants reported how often they considered the warnings, smoking myth endorsement, risk perceptions and perceptions of cigarette danger relative to smokeless tobacco and electronic cigarettes. In structural equation models, emotional reactions influenced risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement through two processes. Emotion acted as information about risk, directly increasing smoking risk perceptions and decreasing smoking myth endorsement. Emotion also acted as a spotlight, motivating consideration of the warning information. Warning consideration increased risk perceptions, but also increased smoking myth endorsement. Emotional reactions to warnings decreased perceptions of cigarette danger relative to other products. Emotional reactions to cigarette warnings increase smoking risk perceptions, but also smoking myth endorsement and misperceptions that cigarettes are less dangerous than potentially harm-reducing tobacco products.

Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

A Bandwidth-Efficient Dissemination Scheme of Non-Safety Information in Urban VANETs †

PubMed Central

Garcia-Lozano, Estrella; Campo, Celeste; Garcia-Rubio, Carlos; Rodriguez-Carrion, Alicia

2016-01-01

The recent release of standards for vehicular communications will hasten the development of smart cities in the following years. Many applications for vehicular networks, such as blocked road warnings or advertising, will require multi-hop dissemination of information to all vehicles in a region of interest. However, these networks present special features and difficulties that may require special measures. The dissemination of information may cause broadcast storms. Urban scenarios are especially sensitive to broadcast storms because of the high density of vehicles in downtown areas. They also present numerous crossroads and signal blocking due to buildings, which make dissemination more difficult than in open, almost straight interurban roadways. In this article, we discuss several options to avoid the broadcast storm problem while trying to achieve the maximum coverage of the region of interest. Specifically, we evaluate through simulations different ways to detect and take advantage of intersections and a strategy based on store-carry-forward to overcome short disconnections between groups of vehicles. Our conclusions are varied, and we propose two different solutions, depending on the requirements of the application. PMID:27355956

A Bandwidth-Efficient Dissemination Scheme of Non-Safety Information in Urban VANETs.

PubMed

Garcia-Lozano, Estrella; Campo, Celeste; Garcia-Rubio, Carlos; Rodriguez-Carrion, Alicia

2016-06-27

The recent release of standards for vehicular communications will hasten the development of smart cities in the following years. Many applications for vehicular networks, such as blocked road warnings or advertising, will require multi-hop dissemination of information to all vehicles in a region of interest. However, these networks present special features and difficulties that may require special measures. The dissemination of information may cause broadcast storms. Urban scenarios are especially sensitive to broadcast storms because of the high density of vehicles in downtown areas. They also present numerous crossroads and signal blocking due to buildings, which make dissemination more difficult than in open, almost straight interurban roadways. In this article, we discuss several options to avoid the broadcast storm problem while trying to achieve the maximum coverage of the region of interest. Specifically, we evaluate through simulations different ways to detect and take advantage of intersections and a strategy based on store-carry-forward to overcome short disconnections between groups of vehicles. Our conclusions are varied, and we propose two different solutions, depending on the requirements of the application.

77 FR 6785 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Feedback Survey for Annual Tsunami Warning...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-09

... information following testing of the associated NWS communications systems. The tests are planned annually, in March/April and again in September. Post-test feedback information will be requested from emergency... Collection; Comment Request; Feedback Survey for Annual Tsunami Warning Communications Tests AGENCY: National...

78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-12

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION [Docket No.: ED-2013-ICCD-0106] Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and Intervention Monitoring System AGENCY: Institute of... Intervention Monitoring System. OMB Control Number: 1850-NEW. Type of Review: A new information collection...

A Tsunami-Focused Tide Station Data Sharing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kari, U. S.; Marra, J. J.; Weinstein, S. A.

2006-12-01

The Indian Ocean Tsunami of 26 December 2004 made it clear that information about tide stations that could be used to support detection and warning (such as location, collection and transmission capabilities, operator identification) are insufficiently known or not readily accessible. Parties interested in addressing this problem united under the Pacific Region Data Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE), and in 2005 began a multiyear effort to develop a distributed metadata system describing tide stations starting with pilot activities in a regional framework and focusing on tsunami detection and warning systems being developed by various agencies. First, a plain semantic description of the tsunami-focused tide station metadata was developed. The semantic metadata description was, in turn, developed into a formal metadata schema championed by International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) as part of a larger effort to develop a prototype web service under the PRIDE program in 2005. Under the 2006 PRIDE program the formal metadata schema was then expanded to corral input parameters for the TideTool application used by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) to drill down into wave activity at a tide station that is located using a web service developed on this metadata schema. This effort contributed to formalization of web service dissemination of PTWC watch and warning tsunami bulletins. During this time, the data content and sharing issues embodied in this schema have been discussed at various forums. The result is that the various stakeholders have different data provider and user perspectives (semantic content) and also exchange formats (not limited to just XML). The challenge then, is not only to capture all data requirements, but also to have formal representation that is easily transformed into any specified format. The latest revision of the tide gauge schema (Version 0.3), begins to address this challenge. It encompasses a broader range of provider and user perspectives, such as station operators, warning system managers, disaster managers, other marine hazard warning systems (such as storm surges and sea level change monitoring and research. In the next revision(s), we hope to take into account various relevant standards, including specifically, the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) Framework, that will serve all prospective stakeholders in the most useful (extensible, scalable) manner. This is because Sensor ML has addressed many of the challenges we face already, through very useful fundamental modeling consideration and data types that are particular to sensors in general, with perhaps some extension needed for tide gauges. As a result of developing this schema, and associated client application architectures, we hope to have a much more distributed network of data providers, who are able to contribute to a global tide station metadata from the comfort of their own Information Technology (IT) departments.

Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience.

PubMed

Schumann, Ronald L; Ash, Kevin D; Bowser, Gregg C

2018-02-01

Recent advancements in severe weather detection and warning dissemination technologies have reduced, but not eliminated, large-casualty tornado hazards in the United States. Research on warning cognition and behavioral response by the public has the potential to further reduce tornado-related deaths and injuries; however, less research has been conducted in this area compared to tornado research in the physical sciences. Extant research in this vein tends to bifurcate. One branch of studies derives from classic risk perception, which investigates cognitive, affective, and sociocultural factors in relation to concern and preparation for uncertain risks. Another branch focuses on psychological, social, and cultural factors implicated in warning response for rapid onset hazards, with attention paid to previous experience and message design. Few studies link risk perceptions with cognition and response as elicited by specific examples of warnings. The present study unites risk perception, cognition, and response approaches by testing the contributions of hypothesized warning response drivers in one set of path models. Warning response is approximated by perceived fear and intended protective action as reported by survey respondents when exposed to hypothetical tornado warning scenarios. This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information-seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information-seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Development of a flood-warning network and flood-inundation mapping for the Blanchard River in Ottawa, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitehead, Matthew T.

2011-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps of the Blanchard River in Ottawa, Ohio, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Village of Ottawa, Ohio. The maps, which correspond to water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Ottawa (USGS streamgage site number 04189260), were provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into a Web-based flood-warning Network that can be used in conjunction with NWS flood-forecast data to show areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. Flood profiles were computed by means of a step-backwater model calibrated to recent field measurements of streamflow. The step-backwater model was then used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for 12 flood stages with corresponding streamflows ranging from less than the 2-year and up to nearly the 500-year recurrence-interval flood. The computed flood profiles were used in combination with digital elevation data to delineate flood-inundation areas. Maps of the Village of Ottawa showing flood-inundation areas overlain on digital orthophotographs are presented for the selected floods. As part of this flood-warning network, the USGS upgraded one streamgage and added two new streamgages, one on the Blanchard River and one on Riley Creek, which is tributary to the Blanchard River. The streamgage sites were equipped with both satellite and telephone telemetry. The telephone telemetry provides dual functionality, allowing village officials and the public to monitor current stage conditions and enabling the streamgage to call village officials with automated warnings regarding flood stage and/or predetermined rates of stage increase. Data from the streamgages serve as a flood warning that emergency management personnel can use in conjunction with the flood-inundation maps by to determine a course of action when flooding is imminent.

Seismogeodetic monitoring techniques for tsunami and earthquake early warning and rapid assessment of structural damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Saunders, J. K.; Goldberg, D.; Restrepo, J. I.

2016-12-01

As part of an effort to promote the use of NASA-sponsored Earth science information for disaster risk reduction, real-time high-rate seismogeodetic data are being incorporated into early warning and structural monitoring systems. Seismogeodesy combines seismic acceleration and GPS displacement measurements using a tightly-coupled Kalman filter to provide absolute estimates of seismic acceleration, velocity and displacement. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. Real-time seismogeodetic observations at subduction zones allow for more robust and rapid magnitude and slip estimation that increase warning time in the near-source region. A NASA-funded effort to utilize GPS and seismogeodesy in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii integrates new modules for picking, locating, and estimating magnitudes and moment tensors for earthquakes into the USGS earthworm environment at the TWCs. In a related project, NASA supports the transition of this research to seismogeodetic tools for disaster preparedness, specifically by implementing GPS and low-cost MEMS accelerometers for structural monitoring in partnership with earthquake engineers. Real-time high-rate seismogeodetic structural monitoring has been implemented on two structures. The first is a parking garage at the Autonomous University of Baja California Faculty of Medicine in Mexicali, not far from the rupture of the 2011 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake enabled through a UCMexus collaboration. The second is the 8-story Geisel Library at University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The system has also been installed for several proof-of-concept experiments at the UCSD Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High Performance Outdoor Shake Table. We present MEMS-based seismogeodetic observations from the 10 June 2016 Mw 5.2 Borrego Springs earthquake of strong ground motions in near field close to the San Jacinto fault, as well as observations that show the response of the 3 story parking garage. The occurrence of this recent earthquake provided a useful demonstration of structural monitoring applications with seismogeodesy.

Informing climate change adaptation with insights from famine early warning (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2010-12-01

Famine early warning systems provide a unique viewpoint for understanding the implications of climate change on food security, identifying the locations and seasons where millions of food insecure people are dependent upon climate-sensitive agricultural systems. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a decision support system sponsored by the Office of Food for Peace of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which distributes over two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. FEWS NET identifies the times and places where food aid is required by the most climatically sensitive and consequently food insecure populations of the developing world. As result, FEWS NET has developed its own "climate service", implemented by USGS, NOAA, and NASA, to support its decision making processes. The foundation of this climate service is the monitoring of current growing conditions for early identification of agricultural drought that might impact food security. Since station networks are sparse in the countries monitored, FEWS NET has a tradition (dating back to 1985) of reliance on satellite remote sensing of vegetation and rainfall. In the last ten years, climate forecasts have become an additional tool for food security assessment, extending the early warning perspective to include expected agricultural outcomes for the season ahead. More recently, research has expanded to include detailed analyses of recent observed climate trends, combined with diagnostic ocean-atmosphere studies. These studies are then used to develop interpretations of GCM scenarios and their implications for future patterns of precipitation and temperature, revealing trends towards warmer/drier climate conditions and increases in the relative frequency of drought. In some regions, like Eastern Africa, such changes seem to be already occurring, with an associated increase in food insecurity. Sub-national analyses for Kenya, for example, point to the need for adaptation through improved agricultural practices, so that increased yields can offset the impacts of rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Future work will focus on assessing temperature-PET linkages, and evaluating pathways for agricultural development.

The effects of compliance cost and specific consequence information on the use of safety equipment.

PubMed

Hathaway, J A; Dingus, T A

1992-12-01

The effects of compliance cost and warning content on the use of protective eyewear by racquetball players were evaluated. Four-hundred-twenty subjects were observed for use of eye protection in a field setting. Results indicate that proximal placement of eyewear and the inclusion of specific consequence warning information increased safety equipment use. Implications of this research for augmenting warning effectiveness and safety are discussed.

Using fear appeals in warning labels to promote responsible gambling among VLT players: the key role of depth of information processing.

PubMed

Munoz, Yaromir; Chebat, Jean-Charles; Suissa, Jacob Amnon

2010-12-01

Video lottery terminals (VLT) are a highly lucrative gambling format, but at the same time they are among the most hazardous. Previous research has shown that threatening warnings may be an appropriate approach for promoting protective behavior. The present study explores the potential benefits of threatening warnings in the fight against compulsive gambling. A 4 × 2 factorial design experiment was used to test our model based on both Elaboration Likelihood Model and Protection Motivation Theory. 258 VLT adult players (58% males, 42% females) with various degrees of problem gambling were exposed to three threat levels (plus a control condition) from two different sources (i.e., either a medical source or a source related to the provider of VLT's). Our results show that both higher threat warnings and the medical source of warnings enhance Depth of Information Processing. It was also found that Depth of Information Processing affects positively attitude change and compliance intentions. The theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

An exploratory study of drinkers views of health information and warning labels on alcohol containers.

PubMed

Thomson, Lisa M; Vandenberg, Brian; Fitzgerald, John L

2012-03-01

To identify general and specific features of health information warning labels on alcohol beverage containers that could potentially inform the development and implementation of a new labelling regime in Australia. Mixed methods, including a cross-sectional population survey and a qualitative study of knowledge, attitudes and behaviours regarding alcohol beverage labelling. The population survey used computer-assisted telephone interviews of 1500 persons in Victoria, Australia to gauge the level of support for health information and warning labels. The qualitative study used six focus groups to test the suitability of 12 prototype labels that were placed in situ on a variety of alcohol beverage containers. The telephone survey found 80% to 90% support for a range of information that could potentially be mandated by government authorities for inclusion on labels (nutritional information, alcohol content, health warning, images). Focus group testing of the prototype label designs found that labels should be integrated with other alcohol-related health messages, such as government social advertising campaigns, and specific labels should be matched appropriately to specific consumer groups and beverage types. There are high levels of public support for health information and warning labels on alcohol beverages. This study contributes much needed empirical guidance for developing alcohol beverage labelling strategies in an Australian context. © 2011 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Local Tsunami Warnings using GNSS and Seismic Data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirshorn, B. F.

2017-12-01

Tsunami warning Centers (TWC's) must issue warnings based on imperfect and limited data. Uncertainties increase in the near field, where a tsunami reaches the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake in a half hour or less. In the absence of a warning, the usual advice is "When the ground shakes so severely that it's difficult to stand, move uphill and away from the coast." But, what if the shaking is not severe? If, for example, the earthquake ruptures slowly (producing very little perceived shaking) this advice will fail. Unfortunately these "Tsunami" earthquakes are not rare: tsunamis from slow earthquakes off of Nicaragua in 1992, and Java in 1994 and 2006, killed 179, 250 and 637 people, respectively, even though very few nearby coastal residents felt any strong ground shaking. TWC's must therefore warn the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake, where over 80% of the Tsunami based casualties typically occur, as soon possible after earthquake rupture begins. The NWS Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) currently issue local Tsunami Warnings for the US West Coast, Hawaii, and the Puerto Rico - Virgin Island region within 2-4 minutes after origin time. However, our initial short period Magnitude estimates saturate over about Mw 6.5, and Mwp underestimates Mw for events larger than about Mw 7.5 when using data in the 0 to 3 degree epicentral distance range, severely underestimating the danger of a potential Tsunami in the near field. Coastal GNSS networks complement seismic monitoring networks, and enable unsaturated estimates of Mw within 2-3 minutes of earthquake origin time. NASA/JPL, SIO, USGS, CWU, UCB and UW, with funding and guidance from NASA, and leveraging the USGS funded ShakeAlert development, have been working with the National Weather Service TWC's to incorporate real-time GNSS and seismogeodetic data into their operations. These data will soon provide unsaturated estimates of moment magnitude, Centroid Moment Tensor solutions, coseismic crustal deformation, and fault slip models within a few minutes after earthquake initiation. The sea floor deformation associated with the earthquake slip can then be used as an initial condition for an automatically generated tsunami propagation and coastal inundation model for coastal warnings.

Simulated NASA Satellite Data Products for the NOAA Integrated Coral Reef Observation Network/Coral Reef Early Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.

2007-01-01

This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.

The CASA Dallas Fort Worth Remote Sensing Network ICT for Urban Disaster Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandrasekar, Venkatachalam; Chen, Haonan; Philips, Brenda; Seo, Dong-jun; Junyent, Francesc; Bajaj, Apoorva; Zink, Mike; Mcenery, John; Sukheswalla, Zubin; Cannon, Amy; Lyons, Eric; Westbrook, David

2013-04-01

The dual-polarization X-band radar network developed by the U.S. National Science Foundation Engineering Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) has shown great advantages for observing and prediction of hazardous weather events in the lower atmosphere (1-3 km above ground level). The network is operating though a scanning methodology called DCAS, distributed collaborative adaptive sensing, which is designed to focus on particular interesting regions of the atmosphere and disseminate information for decision-making to multiple end-users, such as emergency managers and policy analysts. Since spring 2012, CASA and the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) have embarked the development of Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) urban remote sensing network, including 8-node of dual-polarization X-band radars, in the populous DFW Metroplex (pop. 6.3 million in 2010). The main goal of CASA DFW urban demonstration network is to protect the safety and prosperity of humans and ecosystems through research activities that include: 1) to demonstrate the DCAS operation paradigm developed by CASA; 2) to create high-resolution, three-dimensional mapping of the meteorological conditions; 3) to help the local emergency managers issue impacts-based warnings and forecasts for severe wind, tornado, hail, and flash flood hazards. The products of this radar network will include single and multi-radar data, vector wind retrieval, quantitative precipitation estimation and nowcasting, and numerical weather predictions. In addition, the high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall products from CASA can serve as a reliable data input for distributed hydrological models in urban area. This paper presents the information and communication link between radars, rainfall product generation, hydrologic model link and end user community in the Dallas Fort Worth Urban Network. Specific details of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) between the various subsystems are presented.

Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

2015-04-01

The French national hydro-meteorological and flood forecasting centre (SCHAPI) aims to implement a national flash flood warning system to improve flood alerts for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km2) ungauged basins. This system is based on the AIGA method, co-developed by IRSTEA these last 10 years. The method, initially set up for the Mediterranean area, is based on a simple event-based hourly hydrologic distributed model run every 15 minutes (Javelle et al. 2014). The hydrologic model ingests operational radar-gauge rainfall grids from Météo-France at a 1-km² resolution to produce discharges for successive outlets along the river network. Discharges are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles of given return periods and warnings (expressed as the range of the return period estimated in real-time) are provided on a river network map. The main interest of the method is to provide forecasters and emergency services with a synthetic view in real time of the ongoing flood situation, information that is especially critical in ungauged flood prone areas. In its enhanced national version, the hourly event-based distributed model is coupled to a continuous daily rainfall-runoff model which provides baseflow and a soil moisture index (for each 1-km² pixel) at the beginning of the hourly simulation. The rainfall-runoff models were calibrated on a selection of 700 French hydrometric stations with Météo-France radar-gauge reanalysis dataset for the 2002-2006 period. To estimate model parameters for ungauged basins, the 2 hydrologic models were regionalised by testing both regressions (using different catchment attributes, such as catchment area, soil type, and climate characteristic) and spatial proximity techniques (transposing parameters from neighbouring donor catchments), as well as different homogeneous hydrological areas. The most valuable regionalisation method was determined for each model through jack-knife cross-validation. The system performance was then evaluated with contingency criteria (e.g., Critical Success Index, Probability Of Detection, Success Ratio) using operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France for the 2009-2012 period. The regionalised parameters of the distributed model were finally adjusted for each homogeneous hydrological area to optimize the Heidke skill score (HSS) calculated with three levels of warnings (2-, 10- and 50-year flood quantiles). This work is currently being implemented by the SCHAPI to set up an automated national flash flood warning system by 2016. Planned improvements include developing a unique continuous model to be run at a sub-hourly timestep, discharge assimilation, as well as integrating precipitation forecasts while accounting for the main sources of forecast uncertainty. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., and Arnaud, P. 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Harnessing Vehicle-to-Pedestrian (V2P) Communication Technology: Sending Traffic Warnings to Texting Pedestrians.

PubMed

Rahimian, Pooya; O'Neal, Elizabeth E; Zhou, Shiwen; Plumert, Jodie M; Kearney, Joseph K

2018-06-01

We examined how sending mobile-device warnings to texting pedestrians when they initiate an unsafe road crossing influences their decisions and actions. Pedestrian texting has been identified as a key risk factor in pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Advances in sensing and communications technology offer the possibility of providing pedestrians with information about traffic conditions to assist them in safely crossing traffic-filled roadways. However, it is unclear how this information can be most effectively communicated to pedestrians. We examined how texting and nontexting pedestrians crossed roads with continuous traffic in a large-screen, immersive pedestrian simulator using a between-subjects design with three conditions: texting, warning, and control. Texting participants in the warning condition received an alarm on their cell phone when they began to cross a dangerously small gap. The results demonstrate the detrimental influence of texting on pedestrians' gap selection, movement timing, and gaze behavior, and show the potential of warnings to improve decision making and safety. However, the results also reveal the limits of warning texting participants once they initiate a crossing and possible overreliance on technology that may lead to reduced situation awareness. Mobile devices and short-range communication technologies offer enormous potential to assist pedestrians, but further study is needed to better understand how to provide useful information in a timely manner. The technology for communicating traffic information to pedestrians via mobile devices is on the horizon. Research on how such information influences all aspects of pedestrian behavior is critical to developing effective solutions.

Lessons from Hawaii: A Blessing in Disguise.

PubMed

Deitchman, Scott; Dallas, Cham E; Burkle, Frederick

2018-03-20

On January 13, 2018, Hawaii experienced an erroneous alert that falsely warned of an imminent ballistic missile strike. Rather than focus on the inconvenience caused by the false alert, we used reporting of the event to identify the missing elements that would characterize a system that could save lives by alerting and informing the public in a nuclear detonation. These include warnings that contain essential information rather than directing recipients to secondary sources; a system that issues alerts directly from federal agencies that will have the earliest warning; a robust multimodal alerting system that can deliver messages before and after the detonation; and swift activation of federal agencies immediately upon warning.

ADVANCED SURVEILLANCE OF ENVIROMENTAL RADIATION IN AUTOMATIC NETWORKS.

PubMed

Benito, G; Sáez, J C; Blázquez, J B; Quiñones, J

2018-06-01

The objective of this study is the verification of the operation of a radiation monitoring network conformed by several sensors. The malfunction of a surveillance network has security and economic consequences, which derive from its maintenance and could be avoided with an early detection. The proposed method is based on a kind of multivariate distance, and the verification for the methodology has been tested at CIEMAT's local radiological early warning network.

Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Strasser, Andrew A; Emery, Lydia F; Sheerin, Kaitlin M; Romer, Daniel

2015-01-01

Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge. Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7), did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text. Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only) caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention). Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention). Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later. In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings in encouraging smokers to consider quitting and in educating them about smoking's risks. Negative affective reactions to smoking, thinking about risks, and perceptions of credibility are mediators of their impact. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01782053.

76 FR 63303 - Guidance for Industry on Warnings and Precautions, Contraindications, and Boxed Warning Sections...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-12

...The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing the availability of a guidance for industry entitled ``Warnings and Precautions, Contraindications, and Boxed Warning Sections of Labeling for Human Prescription Drug and Biological Products--Content and Format.'' This guidance is intended to assist applicants and reviewers in drafting the ``Warnings and Precautions, Contraindications, and Boxed Warning'' sections of labeling for human prescription drug and biological products. The recommendations in this guidance will help ensure that the labeling is clear, useful, informative, and to the extent possible, consistent in content and format.

Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manukalo, V.

2012-12-01

Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of current information, forecasts and warnings to consumers automatically. Besides scientific and technical issues the implementation of these objectives requires solution of a number of organizational issues. Thus, as a result of the increased complexity of types of hydrometeorological data and in order to develop forecasting methods, a reconsideration of meteorological and hydrological measurement networks should be carried out. The "optimal density of measuring networks" is proposed taking into account principal terms: a) minimizing an uncertainty in characterizing the spacial distribution of hydrometeorological parameters; b) minimizing the Total Life Cycle Cost of creation and maintenance of measurement networks. Much attention will be given to training Ukrainian disaster management authorities from the Ministry of Emergencies and the Water Management Agency to identify the flood hazard risk level and to indicate the best protection measures on the basis of continuous monitoring and forecasts of evolution of meteorological and hydrological conditions in the river basin.

Impact of FDA Actions, DTCA, and Public Information on the Market for Pain Medication.

PubMed

Bradford, W David; Kleit, Andrew N

2015-07-01

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are one of the most important classes of prescription drugs used by primary care physicians to manage pain. The NSAID class of products has a somewhat controversial history, around which a complex regulatory and informational environment has developed. This history includes a boxed warning mandated by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for all NSAIDs in 2005. We investigate the impact that various information shocks have had on the use of prescription medications for pain in primary care in the USA. We accomplish this by extracting data on nearly 600,000 patients from a unique nationwide electronic medical record database and estimate the probability of any active prescription for the four types of pain medications as a function of FDA actions, advertising, media coverage, and patient characteristics. We find that even after accounting for multiple sources of information, the FDA label changes and boxed warnings had a significant effect on pain medication prescribing. The boxed warning did not have the same impact on the use of all NSAID inhibitors. We find that the boxed warning reduced the use of NSAID COX-2 inhibitor use, which was the focus of much of the press attention. In contrast, however, the warning actually increased the use of non-COX-2 NSAID inhibitors. Thus, the efficacy of the FDA's black box warning is clearly mixed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

2015-06-01

To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

Warnings and caveats in brain controllability.

PubMed

Tu, Chengyi; Rocha, Rodrigo P; Corbetta, Maurizio; Zampieri, Sandro; Zorzi, Marco; Suweis, S

2018-08-01

A recent article by Gu et al. (Nat. Commun. 6, 2015) proposed to characterize brain networks, quantified using anatomical diffusion imaging, in terms of their "controllability", drawing on concepts and methods of control theory. They reported that brain activity is controllable from a single node, and that the topology of brain networks provides an explanation for the types of control roles that different regions play in the brain. In this work, we first briefly review the framework of control theory applied to complex networks. We then show contrasting results on brain controllability through the analysis of five different datasets and numerical simulations. We find that brain networks are not controllable (in a statistical significant way) by one single region. Additionally, we show that random null models, with no biological resemblance to brain network architecture, produce the same type of relationship observed by Gu et al. between the average/modal controllability and weighted degree. Finally, we find that resting state networks defined with fMRI cannot be attributed specific control roles. In summary, our study highlights some warning and caveats in the brain controllability framework. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of warning placement on the information processing of college students reading an OTC drug facts panel.

PubMed

Bhansali, Archita H; Sangani, Darshan S; Mhatre, Shivani K; Sansgiry, Sujit S

2018-01-01

To compare three over-the-counter (OTC) Drug Facts panel versions for information processing optimization among college students. University of Houston students (N = 210) participated in a cross-sectional survey from January to May 2010. A current FDA label was compared to two experimental labels developed using the theory of CHREST to test information processing by re-positioning the warning information within the Drug Facts panel. Congruency was defined as placing like information together. Information processing was evaluated using the OTC medication Label Evaluation Process Model (LEPM): label comprehension, ease-of-use, attitude toward the product, product evaluation, and purchase intention. Experimental label with chunked congruent information (uses-directions-other information-warnings) was rated significantly higher than the current FDA label and had the best average scores among the LEPM information processing variables. If replications uphold these findings, the FDA label design might be revised to improve information processing.

Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

2013-11-01

The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of `systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998-2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear - but unpredictable - signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies.

Concept, Implementation and Testing of PRESTo: Real-time experimentation in Southern Italy and worldwide applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zollo, Aldo; Emolo, Antonio; Festa, Gaetano; Picozzi, Matteo; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Brondi, Piero; Caruso, Alessandro

2016-04-01

The past two decades have witnessed a huge progress in the development, implementation and testing of Earthquakes Early Warning Systems (EEWS) worldwide, as the result of a joint effort of the seismological and earthquake engineering communities to set up robust and efficient methodologies for the real-time seismic risk mitigation. This work presents an overview of the worldwide applications of the system PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem), which is the highly configurable and easily portable platform for Earthquake Early Warning developed by the RISSCLab group of the University of Naples Federico II. In particular, we first present the results of the real-time experimentation of PRESTo in Suthern Italy on the data streams of the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), in Southern Italy. ISNet is a dense high-dynamic range, earthquake observing system, which operates in true real-time mode, thanks to a mixed data transmission system based on proprietary digital terrestrial links, standard ADSL and UMTS technologies. Using the seedlink protocol data are transferred to the network center unit, running the software platform PRESTo which is devoted to process the real-time data streaming, estimate source parameters and issue the alert. The software platform PRESTo uses a P-wave, network-based approach which has evolved and improved during the time since its first release. In its original version consisted in a series of modules, aimed at the event detection/picking, probabilistic real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation, prediction of peak ground motion at distant sites through ground motion prediction equations for the area. In the recent years, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric and broad-band seismic networks in South Korea, Romania, North-East Italy, and Turkey and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, Israel, and Japan. Moreover, the feasibility of a PRESTo-based, EEWS at national scale in Italy, has been tested by evaluating its performance for the Italian Accelerometric Network. These testing experiments and the EEWS performance results will be summarized in the near-future perspective of building the next generation of early warning systems.

The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

2010-05-01

The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context. This requires the integration of natural / spatial and social science concepts, methods and data: E.g. a scenario based approach for tsunami inundation modeling was developed to provide decision makers with options to decide up to what level they aim to protect their people and territory, on the contrary household surveys were conducted for the spatial analysis of the evacuation preparedness of the population as a function of place specific hazard, risk, warning and evacuation perception; remote sensing was applied for the spatial analysis (land-use) of the socio-physical conditions of a city and region for evacuation; and existing social / population statistics were combined with land-use data for the precise spatial mapping of the population exposed to tsunami risks. Only by utilizing such a comprehensive assessment approach valuable information for risk governance can be generated. The results are mapped using GIS and designed according to the specific needs of different end-users, such as public authorities involved in the design of warning dissemination strategies, land-use planners (shelter planning, road network configuration) and NGOs mandated to provide education for the general public on tsunami risk and evacuation behavior. The case study of the city of Padang (one of the pilot areas of GITEWS), Indonesia clearly show, that only by intersecting social (vulnerability) and natural hazards research a comprehensive picture on tsunami risk can be provided with which risk governance in the early warning context can be conducted in a comprehensive, systemic and sustainable manner.

Observing Natural Hazards: Tsunami, Hurricane, and El Niño Observations from the NDBC Ocean Observing System of Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neil, K.; Bouchard, R.; Burnett, W. H.; Aldrich, C.

2009-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) operates and maintains the NDBC Ocean Observing Systems of Systems (NOOSS), comprised of 3 networks that provide critical information before and during and after extreme hazards events, such as tsunamis, hurricanes, and El Niños. While each system has its own mission, they have in common the requirement to remain on station in remote areas of the ocean to provide reliable and accurate observations. After the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, NOAA expanded its network of tsunameters from six in the Pacific Ocean to a vast network of 39 stations providing information to Tsunami Warning Centers to enable faster and more accurate tsunami warnings for coastal communities in the Pacific, Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The tsunameter measurements are used to detect the amplitude and period of the tsunamis, and the data can be assimilated into models for the prediction and impact of the tsunamis to coastal communities. The network has been used for the detection of tsunamis generated by earthquakes, including the 2006 and 2007 Kuril Islands, 2007 Peru, and Solomon Islands, and most recently for the 2009 Dusky Sound, New Zealand earthquake. In August 2009, the NOAA adjusted its 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks from above normal to near or below normal activity, primarily due to a strengthening El Niño. A key component in the detection of that El Niño was the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array (TAO) operated by NDBC. TAO provides real-time data for improved detection, understanding, and prediction of El Niño and La Niña. The 55-buoy TAO array spans the central and eastern equatorial Pacific providing real-time and post-deployment recovery data to support climate analysis and forecasts. Although, in this case, the El Niño benefits the tropical Atlantic, the alternate manifestation, La Niña typically enhances hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The various phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation resulting in extreme hazards, such as floods and landslides, droughts and wildfires, fish kills and biological impacts. For almost 40 years, NDBC has operated and maintained a network of buoys and coastal automated stations for meteorological and oceanographic observations that support real-time weather analysis, forecasting, and warnings. The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses the observations from the buoys to detect the position and intensity of tropical cyclones and the extent of their extreme winds and sea. Since 2006, NHC has cited over 100 instances of using buoy data in its Forecast Discussions or Public Advisories. Data are also used in reconstructing and analyzing the extent of devastation from land-falling hurricanes. The unprecedented devastation caused by the rising waters of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina was attributed to the waves generated and reported by the NDBC buoys in the Gulf of Mexico superimposed upon the storm surge at landfall. The three constituent systems of the NOOSS comprise a network of more than 250 observing stations providing real-time and archived data for forecasters, scientists, and disaster management officials.

Net Warrior D10 Technology Report: Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Data Link Nodes

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-01

ADO ) approach to implementing Network Centric Warfare (NCW) through ‘learning by doing’. Net Warrior was conceived to address, through... frameworks are able to satisfy design needs of applications to produce stable mission and net centric systems. NW-D10 employed a SOA approach to...UNCLASSIFIED Net Warrior D10 Technology Report: Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) and Data Link Nodes Derek Dominish

Remote Monitoring of Post-eruption Volcano Environment Based-On Wireless Sensor Network (WSN): The Mount Sinabung Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeharwinto; Sinulingga, Emerson; Siregar, Baihaqi

2017-01-01

An accurate information can be useful for authorities to make good policies for preventive and mitigation after volcano eruption disaster. Monitoring of environmental parameters of post-eruption volcano provides an important information for authorities. Such monitoring system can be develop using the Wireless Network Sensor technology. Many application has been developed using the Wireless Sensor Network technology, such as floods early warning system, sun radiation mapping, and watershed monitoring. This paper describes the implementation of a remote environment monitoring system of mount Sinabung post-eruption. The system monitor three environmental parameters: soil condition, water quality and air quality (outdoor). Motes equipped with proper sensors, as components of the monitoring system placed in sample locations. The measured value from the sensors periodically sends to data server using 3G/GPRS communication module. The data can be downloaded by the user for further analysis.The measurement and data analysis results generally indicate that the environmental parameters in the range of normal/standard condition. The sample locations are safe for living and suitable for cultivation, but awareness is strictly required due to the uncertainty of Sinabung status.

An extensive review of commercial product labels the good, bad and ugly.

PubMed

Mrvos, R; Dean, B S; Krenzelok, E P

1986-02-01

Cautions and warnings on consumer products play an important role in the prevention and treatment of poison exposures. Frequently those exposed will follow the directions before calling the poison center, physician or emergency room. An extensive label review of 200 commercial products was conducted to determine if medical treatment advice was correct, if the general public was able to comprehend warning statements, and if warnings were adequate. We conclude there are products available that provide precise, correct information. However, there are many that contain incorrect, misleading, and often dangerous information to an unsuspecting public. Various examples of both types are given to make the poison information specialist aware of what information is presented.

Associations between coherent neural activity in the brain's value system during antismoking messages and reductions in smoking.

PubMed

Cooper, Nicole; Tompson, Steven; O'Donnell, Matthew B; Vettel, Jean M; Bassett, Danielle S; Falk, Emily B

2018-04-01

Worldwide, tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable death and illness. One common strategy for reducing the prevalence of cigarette smoking and other health risk behaviors is the use of graphic warning labels (GWLs). This has led to widespread interest from the perspective of health psychology in understanding the mechanisms of GWL effectiveness. Here we investigated differences in how the brain responds to negative, graphic warning label-inspired antismoking ads and neutral control ads, and we probed how this response related to future behavior. A group of smokers (N = 45) viewed GWL-inspired and control antismoking ads while undergoing fMRI, and their smoking behavior was assessed before and one month after the scan. We examined neural coherence between two regions in the brain's valuation network, the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) and ventral striatum (VS). We found that greater neural coherence in the brain's valuation network during GWL ads (relative to control ads) preceded later smoking reduction. Our results suggest that the integration of information about message value may be key for message influence. Understanding how the brain responds to health messaging and relates to future behavior could ultimately contribute to the design of effective messaging campaigns, as well as more broadly to theories of message effects and persuasion across domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Friends as Sensors to Detect Global-Scale Contagious Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Fowler, James H.

2014-01-01

Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global–scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global–scale networks. PMID:24718030

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

PubMed

Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A; Fowler, James H

2014-01-01

Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

Radio disturbance warning issuance system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maeda, R.; Inuki, H.

1979-01-01

A radio disturbance warning issuance system was introduced in the Hiraiso Branch of the Radio Research Laboratories in 1972 to reconstruct the current radio disturbance warning service as a social information service. A description of the new ideas which were experimentally systematized by means of an electronic computer is presented.

Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

2014-01-01

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.

1994-01-01

Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

Multipath for Agricultural and Rural Information Services in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Ningning; Zang, Zhiyuan; Gao, Lingwang; Shi, Qiang; Li, Jie; Xing, Chunlin; Shen, Zuorui

Internet cannot provide perfect information services for farmers in rural regions in China, because farmers in rural regions can hardly access the internet by now. But the wide coverage of mobile signal, telephone line, and television network, etc. gave us a chance to solve the problem. The integrated pest management platform of Northern fruit trees were developed based on the integrated technology, which can integrate the internet, mobile and fixed-line telephone network, and television network, to provide integrated pest management(IPM) information services for farmers in rural regions in E-mail, telephone-voice, short message, voice mail, videoconference or other format, to users' telephone, cell phone, personal computer, personal digital assistant(PDA), television, etc. alternatively. The architecture and the functions of the system were introduced in the paper. The system can manage the field monitoring data of agricultural pests, deal with enquiries to provide the necessary information to farmers accessing the interactive voice response(IVR) in the system with the experts on-line or off-line, and issue the early warnings about the fruit tree pests when it is necessary according to analysis on the monitoring data about the pests of fruit trees in variety of ways including SMS, fax, voice and intersystem e-mail.The system provides a platform and a new pattern for agricultural technology extension with a high coverage rate of agricultural technology in rural regions, and it can solve the problem of agriculture information service 'last kilometer' in China. The effectiveness of the system was certified.

Prediction of Flood Warning in Taiwan Using Nonlinear SVM with Simulated Annealing Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C.

2013-12-01

The issue of the floods is important in Taiwan. It is because the narrow and high topography of the island make lots of rivers steep in Taiwan. The tropical depression likes typhoon always causes rivers to flood. Prediction of river flow under the extreme rainfall circumstances is important for government to announce the warning of flood. Every time typhoon passed through Taiwan, there were always floods along some rivers. The warning is classified to three levels according to the warning water levels in Taiwan. The propose of this study is to predict the level of floods warning from the information of precipitation, rainfall duration and slope of riverbed. To classify the level of floods warning by the above-mentioned information and modeling the problems, a machine learning model, nonlinear Support vector machine (SVM), is formulated to classify the level of floods warning. In addition, simulated annealing (SA), a probabilistic heuristic algorithm, is used to determine the optimal parameter of the SVM model. A case study of flooding-trend rivers of different gradients in Taiwan is conducted. The contribution of this SVM model with simulated annealing is capable of making efficient announcement for flood warning and keeping the danger of flood from residents along the rivers.

Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

PubMed

Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

2017-06-01

An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning. Although drugs approved with a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience serious post-marketing safety events, other information provided during the FDA drug review that is easy to quantify is generally not associated with post-marketing safety events. It appears that these post-marketing events are not discernible during a pre-marketing review and therefore might not be avoidable using current review data.

Using warnings to reduce categorical false memories in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Carmichael, Anna M; Gutchess, Angela H

2016-07-01

Warnings about memory errors can reduce their incidence, although past work has largely focused on associative memory errors. The current study sought to explore whether warnings could be tailored to specifically reduce false recall of categorical information in both younger and older populations. Before encoding word pairs designed to induce categorical false memories, half of the younger and older participants were warned to avoid committing these types of memory errors. Older adults who received a warning committed fewer categorical memory errors, as well as other types of semantic memory errors, than those who did not receive a warning. In contrast, young adults' memory errors did not differ for the warning versus no-warning groups. Our findings provide evidence for the effectiveness of warnings at reducing categorical memory errors in older adults, perhaps by supporting source monitoring, reduction in reliance on gist traces, or through effective metacognitive strategies.

Sensor Fusion of Position- and Micro-Sensors (MEMS) integrated in a Wireless Sensor Network for movement detection in landslide areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnhardt, Christian; Fernández-Steeger, Tomas; Azzam, Rafig

2010-05-01

Monitoring systems in landslide areas are important elements of effective Early Warning structures. Data acquisition and retrieval allows the detection of movement processes and thus is essential to generate warnings in time. Apart from the precise measurement, the reliability of data is fundamental, because outliers can trigger false alarms and leads to the loss of acceptance of such systems. For the monitoring of mass movements and their risk it is important to know, if there is movement, how fast it is and how trustworthy is the information. The joint project "Sensorbased landslide early warning system" (SLEWS) deals with these questions, and tries to improve data quality and to reduce false alarm rates, due to the combination of sensor date (sensor fusion). The project concentrates on the development of a prototypic Alarm- and Early Warning system (EWS) for different types of landslides by using various low-cost sensors, integrated in a wireless sensor network (WSN). The network consists of numerous connection points (nodes) that transfer data directly or over other nodes (Multi-Hop) in real-time to a data collection point (gateway). From there all the data packages are transmitted to a spatial data infrastructure (SDI) for further processing, analyzing and visualizing with respect to end-user specifications. The ad-hoc characteristic of the network allows the autonomous crosslinking of the nodes according to existing connections and communication strength. Due to the independent finding of new or more stable connections (self healing) a breakdown of the whole system is avoided. The bidirectional data stream enables the receiving of data from the network but also allows the transfer of commands and pointed requests into the WSN. For the detection of surface deformations in landslide areas small low-cost Micro-Electro-Mechanical-Systems (MEMS) and positionsensors from the automobile industries, different industrial applications and from other measurement technologies were chosen. The MEMS-Sensors are acceleration-, tilt- and barometric pressure sensors. The positionsensors are draw wire and linear displacement transducers. In first laboratory tests the accuracy and resolution were investigated. The tests showed good results for all sensors. For example tilt-movements can be monitored with an accuracy of +/- 0,06° and a resolution of 0,1°. With the displacement transducer change in length of >0,1mm is possible. Apart from laboratory tests, field tests in South France and Germany were done to prove data stability and movement detection under real conditions. The results obtained were very satisfying, too. In the next step the combination of numerous sensors (sensor fusion) of the same type (redundancy) or different types (complementary) was researched. Different experiments showed that there is a high concordance between identical sensor-types. According to different sensor parameters (sensitivity, accuracy, resolution) some sensor-types can identify changes earlier. Taking this into consideration, good correlations between different kinds of sensors were achieved, too. Thus the experiments showed that combination of sensors is possible and this could improve the detection of movement and movement rate but also outliers. Based on this results various algorithms were setup that include different statistical methods (outlier tests, testing of hypotheses) and procedures from decision theories (Hurwicz-criteria). These calculation formulas will be implemented in the spatial data infrastructure (SDI) for the further data processing and validation. In comparison with today existing mainly punctually working monitoring systems, the application of wireless sensor networks in combination with low-cost, but precise micro-sensors provides an inexpensive and easy to set up monitoring system also in large areas. The correlation of same but also different sensor-types permits a good data control. Thus the sensor fusion is a promising tool to detect movement more reliable and thus contributes essential to the improvement of Early Warning Systems.

Responses to deceleration during car following: roles of optic flow, warnings, expectations, and interruptions.

PubMed

DeLucia, Patricia R; Tharanathan, Anand

2009-12-01

More than 25% of accidents are rear-end collisions. It is essential to identify the factors that contribute to such collisions. One such factor is a driver's ability to respond to the deceleration of the car ahead. In Experiment 1, we measured effects of optic flow information and discrete visual and auditory warnings (brake lights, tones) on responses to deceleration during car following. With computer simulations of car-following scenes, university students pressed a button when the lead car decelerated. Both classes of information affected responses. Observers relied on discrete warnings when optic flow information was relatively less effective as determined by the lead car's headway and deceleration rate. This is consistent with DeLucia's (2008) conceptual framework of space perception that emphasized the importance of viewing distance and motion (and task). In Experiment 2, we measured responses to deceleration after a visual interruption. Scenes were designed to tease apart the role of expectations and optic flow. Responses mostly were consistent with optic flow information presented after the interruption rather than with putative mental expectations that were set up by the lead car's motion prior to the interruption. The theoretical implication of the present results is that responses to deceleration are based on multiple sources of information, including optical size, optical expansion rate and tau, and discrete warnings that are independent of optic flow. The practical implication is that in-vehicle collision-avoidance warning systems may be more useful when optic flow is less effective (e.g., slow deceleration rates), implicating a role for adaptive collision-warning systems. Copyright 2009 APA

The EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory and allied networks, the makings of nascent Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning System in Western North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattioli, Glen; Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Meertens, Charles; Phillips, David; Blume, Fredrick; Berglund, Henry; Fox, Otina; Feaux, Karl

2016-04-01

The NSF-funded GAGE Facility, managed by UNAVCO, operates approximately ~1300 GNSS stations distributed across North and Central America and in the circum-Caribbean. Following community input starting in 2011 from several workshops and associated reports,UNAVCO has been exploring ways to increase the capability and utility of the geodetic resources under its management to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami deformation sources. Networks operated by UNAVCO for the NSF have the potential to profoundly transform our ability to rapidly characterize events, provide rapid characterization and warning, as well as improve hazard mitigation and response. Specific applications currently under development include earthquake early warning, tsunami early warning, and tropospheric modeling with university, commercial, non-profit and government partners on national and international scales. In the case of tsunami early warning, for example, an RT-GNSS network can provide multiple inputs in an operational system starting with rapid assessment of earthquake sources and associated deformation, which leads to the initial model of ocean forcing and tsunami generation. In addition, terrestrial GNSScan provide direct measurements of the tsunami through the associated traveling ionospheric disturbance from several 100's of km away as they approach the shoreline,which can be used to refine tsunami inundation models. Any operational system like this has multiple communities that rely on a pan-Pacific real-time open data set. Other scientific and operational applications for high-rate GPS include glacier and ice sheet motions, tropospheric modeling, and better constraints on the dynamics of space weather. Combining existing data sets and user communities, for example seismic data and tide gauge observations, with GNSS and Met data products has proven complicated because of issues related to metadata, appropriate data formats, data quality assessment in real-time and other issues related to using these products operational forecasting. While progress has been made toward more open and free data access across national borders and toward more cooperation among cognizant government sanctioned "early warning" agencies, some impediments remain making a truly operational system a work in progress. Accordingly, UNAVCO has embarked on significant improvements and improvement goals to the original infrastructure and scope of the PBO. We anticipate that PBO and related networks will form a backbone for these disparate efforts providing high quality, low latency raw and processed GNSS data. This requires substantial upgrades to the entire system from the basic GNNS receiver, through robust data collection, archiving and open distribution mechanisms, to efficient data-processing strategies. UNAVCO is currently in a partnership with the commercial and scientific stakeholders to define, develop and deploy all segments of this improved geodetic network. We present the overarching goals, and current and planned future stateof this international resource.

Effects of and attention to graphic warning labels on cigarette packages.

PubMed

Süssenbach, Philipp; Niemeier, Sarah; Glock, Sabine

2013-01-01

The present study investigates the effects of graphic cigarette warnings compared to text-only cigarette warnings on smokers' explicit (i.e. ratings of the packages, cognitions about smoking, perceived health risk, quit intentions) and implicit attitudes. In addition, participants' visual attention towards the graphic warnings was recorded using eye-tracking methodology. Sixty-three smokers participated in the present study and either viewed graphic cigarette warnings with aversive and non-aversive images or text-only warnings. Data were analysed using analysis of variance and correlation analysis. Especially, graphic cigarette warnings with aversive content drew attention and elicited high threat. However, whereas attention directed to the textual information of the graphic warnings predicted smokers' risk perceptions, attention directed to the images of the graphic warnings did not. Moreover, smokers' in the graphic warning condition reported more positive cognitions about smoking, thus revealing cognitive dissonance. Smokers employ defensive psychological mechanisms when confronted with threatening warnings. Although aversive images attract attention, they do not promote health knowledge. Implications for graphic health warnings and the importance of taking their content (i.e. aversive vs. non-aversive images) into account are discussed.

Information Dissemination Analysis of Different Media towards the Application for Disaster Pre-Warning

PubMed Central

Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong; Zhang, Bo

2014-01-01

Knowing the information dissemination mechanisms of different media and having an efficient information dissemination plan for disaster pre-warning plays a very important role in reducing losses and ensuring the safety of human beings. In this paper we established models of information dissemination for six typical information media, including short message service (SMS), microblogs, news portals, cell phones, television, and oral communication. Then, the information dissemination capability of each medium concerning individuals of different ages, genders, and residential areas was simulated, and the dissemination characteristics were studied. Finally, radar graphs were used to illustrate comprehensive assessments of the six media; these graphs show directly the information dissemination characteristics of all media. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of information dissemination for the purpose of disaster pre-warning and for formulating emergency plans which help to reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in a disaster. PMID:24878739

Information dissemination analysis of different media towards the application for disaster pre-warning.

PubMed

Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Su, Boni; Zhao, Jinlong; Zhang, Bo

2014-01-01

Knowing the information dissemination mechanisms of different media and having an efficient information dissemination plan for disaster pre-warning plays a very important role in reducing losses and ensuring the safety of human beings. In this paper we established models of information dissemination for six typical information media, including short message service (SMS), microblogs, news portals, cell phones, television, and oral communication. Then, the information dissemination capability of each medium concerning individuals of different ages, genders, and residential areas was simulated, and the dissemination characteristics were studied. Finally, radar graphs were used to illustrate comprehensive assessments of the six media; these graphs show directly the information dissemination characteristics of all media. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of information dissemination for the purpose of disaster pre-warning and for formulating emergency plans which help to reduce the possibility of injuries, deaths and other losses in a disaster.

Research to Operations: From Point Positions, Earthquake and Tsunami Modeling to GNSS-augmented Tsunami Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stough, T.; Green, D. S.

2017-12-01

This collaborative research to operations demonstration brings together the data and algorithms from NASA research, technology, and applications-funded projects to deliver relevant data streams, algorithms, predictive models, and visualization tools to the NOAA National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC) and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC). Using real-time GNSS data and models in an operational environment, we will test and evaluate an augmented capability for tsunami early warning. Each of three research groups collect data from a selected network of real-time GNSS stations, exchange data consisting of independently processed 1 Hz station displacements, and merge the output into a single, more accurate and reliable set. The resulting merged data stream is delivered from three redundant locations to the TWCs with a latency of 5-10 seconds. Data from a number of seismogeodetic stations with collocated GPS and accelerometer instruments are processed for displacements and seismic velocities and also delivered. Algorithms for locating and determining the magnitude of earthquakes as well as algorithms that compute the source function of a potential tsunami using this new data stream are included in the demonstration. The delivered data, algorithms, models and tools are hosted on NOAA-operated machines at both warning centers, and, once tested, the results will be evaluated for utility in improving the speed and accuracy of tsunami warnings. This collaboration has the potential to dramatically improve the speed and accuracy of the TWCs local tsunami information over the current seismometer-only based methods. In our first year of this work, we have established and deployed an architecture for data movement and algorithm installation at the TWC's. We are addressing data quality issues and porting algorithms into the TWCs operating environment. Our initial module deliveries will focus on estimating moment magnitude (Mw) from Peak Ground Displacement (PGD), within 2-3 minutes of the event, and coseismic displacements converging to static offsets. We will also develop visualizations of module outputs tailored to the operational environment. In the context of this work, we will also discuss this research to operations approach and other opportunities within the NASA Applied Science Disaster Program.

Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two issues are examined: advantages and caveats of using radar rainfall estimates in operational flash flood forecasting, methodological problems as- sociated to the use of hydrological models for distributed flash flood forecasting with rainfall input estimated from radar.

Enhancing the effectiveness of tobacco package warning labels: a social psychological perspective

PubMed Central

Strahan, E; White, K; Fong, G; Fabrigar, L; Zanna, M; Cameron, R

2002-01-01

Objective: To outline social psychological principles that could influence the psychosocial and behavioural effects of tobacco warning labels, and to inform the development of more effective tobacco warning labels. Data sources: PsycInfo and Medline literature searches and expert guided selection of principles and theories in social psychology and of tobacco warning labels, including articles, books, and reports. Conclusions: Tobacco warning labels represent a potentially effective method of influencing attitudes and behaviours. This review describes social psychological principles that could be used to guide the creation of more effective warning labels. The potential value of incorporating warning labels into a broader public health education campaign is discussed, and directions for future research are suggested. PMID:12198266

76 FR 54245 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request, Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-31

... Request, Integrated Public Alert and Warning Systems (IPAWS) Inventory AGENCY: Federal Emergency... system to alert and warn the American people in situations of war, terrorist attack, natural disaster, or... inventory of public alert and warning resources, capabilities, and the degree of integration at the Federal...

Flood warnings in coastal areas: how do experience and information influence responses to alert services?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pescaroli, G.; Magni, M.

2015-04-01

Many studies discuss the economic and technical aspects of flood warnings. Less attention has been given to the social and behavioural patterns that affect alert services. In particular, the literature focuses on warnings activated in river basins or marine environments without providing clear evidence on Mediterranean coastal areas, even though these are subjected to growing flood risk related to climate change. This paper is a first attempt to bridge this gap. Our research develops an in-depth analysis of the village of Cesenatico on the Adriatic Sea coast. Here the municipality adopted two complementary warning systems: a siren and an alert via short message service (SMS). The analysis focuses on a survey conducted in 2011 and 2012 with 228 participants. The relationships between social and behavioural variables and warning services are investigated as well as flood preparedness and information dissemination. Qualitative evidence from informal interviews is used to support the understanding of key responses. The conclusions show how different social and behavioural patterns can influence the effectiveness and use of warning systems, regardless of the technology adopted and the structural mitigation measures implemented. Education, training and accountability are seen to be critical elements for implementation. Finally, the statistical output is used to suggest new questions and new directions for research.

Never Use the Complete Search Space: a Concept to Enhance the Optimization Procedure for Monitoring Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bode, F.; Reuschen, S.; Nowak, W.

2015-12-01

Drinking-water well catchments include many potential sources of contaminations like gas stations or agriculture. Finding optimal positions of early-warning monitoring wells is challenging because there are various parameters (and their uncertainties) that influence the reliability and optimality of any suggested monitoring location or monitoring network.The overall goal of this project is to develop and establish a concept to assess, design and optimize early-warning systems within well catchments. Such optimal monitoring networks need to optimize three competing objectives: a high detection probability, which can be reached by maximizing the "field of vision" of the monitoring network, a long early-warning time such that there is enough time left to install counter measures after first detection, and the overall operating costs of the monitoring network, which should ideally be reduced to a minimum. The method is based on numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous porous media coupled with geostatistics and Monte-Carlo, scenario analyses for real data, respectively, wrapped up within the framework of formal multi-objective optimization using a genetic algorithm.In order to speed up the optimization process and to better explore the Pareto-front, we developed a concept that forces the algorithm to search only in regions of the search space where promising solutions can be expected. We are going to show how to define these regions beforehand, using knowledge of the optimization problem, but also how to define them independently of problem attributes. With that, our method can be used with and/or without detailed knowledge of the objective functions.In summary, our study helps to improve optimization results in less optimization time by meaningful restrictions of the search space. These restrictions can be done independently of the optimization problem, but also in a problem-specific manner.

An overview of developments and applications of oceanographic radar networks in Asia and Oceania countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Satoshi; Heron, Malcolm L.; Kim, Kuh; Lai, Jian-Wu; Lee, Sang-Ho; Wu, Xiangbai; Wu, Xiongbin; Wyatt, Lucy R.; Yang, Wen-Chang

2013-03-01

More than 110 radar stations are in operation at the present time in Asia and Oceania countries, which is nearly half of all the existing radar stations in the world, for purposes related to marine safety, oil spill response, tsunami warning, coastal zone management and understanding of ocean current dynamics, depending mainly on each country's coastal sea characteristics. This paper introduces the oceanographic radar networks of Australia, China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, presented at the 1st Ocean Radar Conference for Asia (ORCA) held in May 2012, Seoul, Korea, to share information about the radar network developments and operations, knowledge and experiences of data management, and research activity and application of the radar-derived data of neighbouring countries. We hope this overview paper may contribute as the first step to promotion of regional collaborations in the radar observations and data usages and applications in order to efficiently monitor the coastal and marginal sea waters along the western Pacific Ocean periphery.

Surface acoustic wave (SAW) vibration sensors.

PubMed

Filipiak, Jerzy; Solarz, Lech; Steczko, Grzegorz

2011-01-01

In the paper a feasibility study on the use of surface acoustic wave (SAW) vibration sensors for electronic warning systems is presented. The system is assembled from concatenated SAW vibration sensors based on a SAW delay line manufactured on a surface of a piezoelectric plate. Vibrations of the plate are transformed into electric signals that allow identification of the sensor and localization of a threat. The theoretical study of sensor vibrations leads us to the simple isotropic model with one degree of freedom. This model allowed an explicit description of the sensor plate movement and identification of the vibrating sensor. Analysis of frequency response of the ST-cut quartz sensor plate and a damping speed of its impulse response has been conducted. The analysis above was the basis to determine the ranges of parameters for vibrating plates to be useful in electronic warning systems. Generally, operation of electronic warning systems with SAW vibration sensors is based on the analysis of signal phase changes at the working frequency of delay line after being transmitted via two circuits of concatenated four-terminal networks. Frequencies of phase changes are equal to resonance frequencies of vibrating plates of sensors. The amplitude of these phase changes is proportional to the amplitude of vibrations of a sensor plate. Both pieces of information may be sent and recorded jointly by a simple electrical unit.

Nowcasting of Lightning-Related Accidents in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ihrlich, Laura; Price, Colin

2016-04-01

Tropical Africa is the world capital of thunderstorm activity with the highest density of strikes per square kilometer per year. As a result it is also the continent with perhaps the highest casualties and injuries from direct lightning strikes. This region of the globe also has little lightning protection of rural homes and schools, while many casualties occur during outdoor activities (e.g. farming, fishing, sports, etc.) In this study we investigated two lightning-caused accidents that got wide press coverage: A lightning strike to a Cheetah Center in Namibia which caused a huge fire and great destruction (16 October 2013), and a plane crash in Mali where 116 people died (24 July 2014). Using data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) we show that the lightning data alone can provide important early warning information that can be used to reduce risks and damages and loss of life from lightning strikes. We have developed a now-casting scheme that allows for early warnings across Africa with a relatively low false alarm rate. To verify the accuracy of our now-cast, we have performed some statistical analysis showing relatively high skill at providing early warnings (lead time of a few hours) based on lightning alone. Furthermore, our analysis can be used in forensic meteorology for determining if such accidents are caused by lightning strikes.

Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

2013-04-01

Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability of snow avalanches) or trigger events (e.g. heavy snow fall) to predict spontaneous hazard events in advance. They encompass regional or national measuring networks and satisfy additional demands such as the standardisation of the measuring stations. The developed classification and the characteristics, which were revealed for each class, yield a valuable input to quantifying the reliability of warning and alarm systems. Importantly, this will facilitate to compare them with well-established standard mitigation measures such as dams, nets and galleries within an integrated risk management approach.

Multifractality and Network Analysis of Phase Transition

PubMed Central

Li, Wei; Yang, Chunbin; Han, Jihui; Su, Zhu; Zou, Yijiang

2017-01-01

Many models and real complex systems possess critical thresholds at which the systems shift dramatically from one sate to another. The discovery of early-warnings in the vicinity of critical points are of great importance to estimate how far the systems are away from the critical states. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and visibility graph method have been employed to investigate the multifractal and geometrical properties of the magnetization time series of the two-dimensional Ising model. Multifractality of the time series near the critical point has been uncovered from the generalized Hurst exponents and singularity spectrum. Both long-term correlation and broad probability density function are identified to be the sources of multifractality. Heterogeneous nature of the networks constructed from magnetization time series have validated the fractal properties. Evolution of the topological quantities of the visibility graph, along with the variation of multifractality, serve as new early-warnings of phase transition. Those methods and results may provide new insights about the analysis of phase transition problems and can be used as early-warnings for a variety of complex systems. PMID:28107414

Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

2015-04-01

Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly increases the value of available information and the level of knowledge of forecasters and disaster managers. Different data, forecast and monitoring products, which are generated by different national and international institution and organizations, can be visualized and processed in real-time within the platform. DEWETRA is a web application ensuring the capillary distribution of information among institutions. The system is used as an infrastructure for exchanging and sharing data, procedures, models and expertise among the Sector of Emergency Management (SEM), the Republic Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) and the Serbian Public Water Companies (PWCs): Serbia Waters, Vojvodina Waters and Belgrade Waters.

Analysis of US Food and Drug Administration Warning Letters: False Promotional Claims Relating to Prescription and Over-the-Counter Medications.

PubMed

Salas, Maribel; Martin, Michelle; Pisu, Maria; McCall, Erin; Zuluaga, Alvaro; Glasser, Stephen P

2008-03-01

Recent studies have suggested that there has been an increase in the number of 'warning letters' issued by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) despite the publication of the FDA advertising guidelines. However, limited information is available on the description of warning letters. The objective of this study was to analyse the frequency and content of FDA warning letters in relation to promotional claims and discuss the influence of regulatory and industry constraints on promotion. All warning letters published by the FDA between 5 May 1995 and 11 June 2007 were reviewed. Warning letters related to promotional issues were included and analysed. Information related to the identification number, date of the warning letter, FDA division that issued the letter, drug name, manufacturer, specific warning problem, type of promotional material and requested action was extracted. Two independent investigators reviewed and classified each PDF file, any differences were discussed until a consensus was reached. Between May 1995 and June 2007 a total of 8692 warning letters were issued, of which 25% were related to drugs. Of these, 206 warning letters focused on drug promotion and were included in this study: 23% were issued in 2005, 15% in 2004 and 14% in 1998. In total, 47% of the warning letters were issued because of false or misleading unapproved doses and uses, 27% failed to disclose risks, 15% cited misleading promotion, 8% related to misleading labelling and 3% promoted false effectiveness claims. There is an important variation in the number of warning letters issued in the last decade, probably because of the increasing number of drugs approved by the FDA, drug withdrawal scandals, and the publication of the FDA and the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) guidelines. We found that benefit-related claims, such as unapproved uses or doses of drugs, and failure to disclose risks, are the main causes of FDA issued warning letters for promotional claims related to medications.

75 FR 7604 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Experimental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-22

... implement the mandatory graphic warnings required by the Tobacco Control Act. The experimental study data...] Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Experimental Study of... on the Experimental Study of Graphic Cigarette Warning Labels that is being conducted in support of...

Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

2009-07-01

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

2009-04-01

Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Agro-climatology Analysis Tools and Knowledge Base Products for Food Security Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Anthony, M.; Palka, S.; Martinez, J.; Hussain, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has developed tools designed to aid food security analysts in developing assumptions of agro-climatological outcomes. There are four primary steps to developing agro-climatology assumptions; including: 1) understanding the climatology, 2) evaluating current climate modes, 3) interpretation of forecast information, and 4) incorporation of monitoring data. Analysts routinely forecast outcomes well in advance of the growing season, which relies on knowledge of climatology. A few months prior to the growing season, analysts can assess large-scale climate modes that might influence seasonal outcomes. Within two months of the growing season, analysts can evaluate seasonal forecast information as indicators. Once the growing season begins, monitoring data, based on remote sensing and field information, can characterize the start of season and remain integral monitoring tools throughout the duration of the season. Each subsequent step in the process can lead to modifications of the original climatology assumption. To support such analyses, we have created an agro-climatology analysis tool that characterizes each step in the assumption building process. Satellite-based rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based products support both the climatology and monitoring steps, sea-surface temperature data and knowledge of the global climate system inform the climate modes, and precipitation forecasts at multiple scales support the interpretation of forecast information. Organizing these data for a user-specified area provides a valuable tool for food security analysts to better formulate agro-climatology assumptions that feed into food security assessments. We have also developed a knowledge base for over 80 countries that provide rainfall and NDVI-based products, including annual and seasonal summaries, historical anomalies, coefficient of variation, and number of years below 70% of annual or seasonal averages. These products provide a quick look for analysts to assess the agro-climatology of a country.

Graphic Warning Labels Elicit Affective and Thoughtful Responses from Smokers: Results of a Randomized Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Evans, Abigail T.; Peters, Ellen; Strasser, Andrew A.; Emery, Lydia F.; Sheerin, Kaitlin M.; Romer, Daniel

2015-01-01

Objective Observational research suggests that placing graphic images on cigarette warning labels can reduce smoking rates, but field studies lack experimental control. Our primary objective was to determine the psychological processes set in motion by naturalistic exposure to graphic vs. text-only warnings in a randomized clinical trial involving exposure to modified cigarette packs over a 4-week period. Theories of graphic-warning impact were tested by examining affect toward smoking, credibility of warning information, risk perceptions, quit intentions, warning label memory, and smoking risk knowledge. Methods Adults who smoked between 5 and 40 cigarettes daily (N = 293; mean age = 33.7), did not have a contra-indicated medical condition, and did not intend to quit were recruited from Philadelphia, PA and Columbus, OH. Smokers were randomly assigned to receive their own brand of cigarettes for four weeks in one of three warning conditions: text only, graphic images plus text, or graphic images with elaborated text. Results Data from 244 participants who completed the trial were analyzed in structural-equation models. The presence of graphic images (compared to text-only) caused more negative affect toward smoking, a process that indirectly influenced risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk perception->quit intention). Negative affect from graphic images also enhanced warning credibility including through increased scrutiny of the warnings, a process that also indirectly affected risk perceptions and quit intentions (e.g., image->negative affect->risk scrutiny->warning credibility->risk perception->quit intention). Unexpectedly, elaborated text reduced warning credibility. Finally, graphic warnings increased warning-information recall and indirectly increased smoking-risk knowledge at the end of the trial and one month later. Conclusions In the first naturalistic clinical trial conducted, graphic warning labels are more effective than text-only warnings in encouraging smokers to consider quitting and in educating them about smoking’s risks. Negative affective reactions to smoking, thinking about risks, and perceptions of credibility are mediators of their impact. Trial Registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01782053 PMID:26672982

Civil Protection Practitioners' Response to Introducing Nowcasting in Weather Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, Thorsten

2014-05-01

The HErZ project WEXICOM (Improving the process of weather warnings and extreme weather information in the chain from the meteorological forecasts to their communication for the Berlin conurbation) assesses the communication and use of weather warnings. In cooperation with DWD we conducted two online surveys with German relief forces before and after a nowcasting application was introduced into the weather warning platform FEWIS. The aim is to investigate how relief workers make use of the additional information. DWD supports German civil protection by providing the warning platform FeWIS (Fire brigade Weather Information System) for registered relief workers. The platform provides information on meteorological hazards needed to take precautions and to support rescue actions. In June 2013 DWD added nowcasted estimates of storm attributes including warning cones based on a 1x1 km grid. The tool named "GewitterMonitor" is based on NowcastMIX and uses short-term weather models and observations to derive warnings with high precision on intensity, location and timing of thunder storm cells for the following two hours. A first survey provided prior to the addition of nowcasted information investigates how users benefit from FeWIS and how they perceive its functionality and reliability. Following the introduction users gain experience applying the nowcasting tool in the thunderstorm season 2013. In Winter 2013/2014 we conducted another online survey. The post-survey comprises questions on the use of the GewitterMonitor and on how the tool supports relief forces in responding to meteorological risks. The post survey also repeats questions on the perception of functionality and function of FeWIS and poses questions derived from the previous survey. This second survey collects practitioners feedback on GewitterMonitor and allows to detect changes in how users perceive the performance of FeWIS after the addition by relating responses to the prior survey.

The Gujarat Earthquake: Mitigations Failures and Lessons learnt for Future Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katuri, A. K.; Mittal, J.; Kumar, K.

Time and again, the Indian subcontinent has been suffering from diverse natural calamities, ranging from droughts to floods, landslides to earthquakes, and cyclones to spells of famines. Recently, in October 1999, a severe cyclone battered the eastern coast of Orissa affecting millions of people, blowing away homes, damaging buildings, destroying crops and wiping out a huge cattle population. The Gujarat earthquake of January 2001 was another monumental disaster that affected more than 15 million people causing colossal loss of life and property estimated at US 1.30 billion, though actual may be much higher. More than 200 international and domestic voluntary agencies promptly rushed aid to the damaged areas at the shake of the quake-2001. In this crucial rescue phase, teams were scattered across affected villages and urban centers, clueless of precise locations and extent of damage. Problems faced during the relief and rehabilitation were- absence of a comprehensive information system (both spatial and attribute), absence of a nodal agency to disseminate information on the type of relief required, absence of high precision remotely sensed data, appropriate for preparation and implementation of long term reconstruction and rehabilitation plan (Development Plan). Repeated disaster assessments by multiple agencies led to wastage of time and resources. All this led to non-coherence amongst the coordinating agencies, and rescue &relief teams. Spatial and attribute damage assessment could have been easier in the presence of comprehensive geographic and demographic information supported by high precision satellite imageries to compare pre and post disaster situation. Disaster management includes pre-disaster preparedness planning, post- disaster damage assessment, search and rescue, rehabilitation and reconstruction activities. Unlike other disasters, scientific alerts, forecasts and warnings of impending earthquake still require more attention. Disaster Preparedness Plan for speedy rescue and relief operations needs to be in place with improved information system for post disaster recovery. This paper draws upon the shortfalls faced in the management of Gujarat earthquake; a lesson learnt and presents a comprehensive strategy for Systems networking including the role of space programs in disaster management. The proposed structure is a top down approach for cooperation, emerging from bottom level demand. The missing key elements in the post-disaster situation were - effective information system, high resolution remote sensing data (for effective town planning), operational GIS, with support network from some or all of the governmental agencies. An integrated global communication network for wider dissemination of forecasts, warning and monitoring on a global level and sharing of related knowledge and information can play a vital role in disaster reduction. Needless to say, the local, regional and national disaster communication networks must be fully integrated in the global grid. The proposed structure for disaster management has a National Disaster Mitigation Establishment (NDME) as the apex body under the auspices of the central government, which would be networked across nations to similar other NDMEs. Each NDME would handle the coordination and monitoring of its state units which may be called as State Disaster Management Establishments (SDME). The SDMEs with various district or sub-district level units would collate data. The Network would be supported with field staff at its offices and would liaison with respective higher level DMEs where the lowest unit may be a village / town or cluster of villages. This paper emphasizes the need for comprehensive information system with Spatial Decision Support System (DSS) at three different levels for total disaster management.

77 FR 5058 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request; Automatic...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-01

... for OMB Review; Comment Request; Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Devices Systems; Examination and..., ``Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Devices Systems,'' to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review... and warning device systems are maintained and calibrated in order to function properly at all times...

Perceived effectiveness of pictorial health warnings among Mexican youth and adults: a population-level intervention with potential to reduce tobacco-related inequities.

PubMed

Hammond, David; Thrasher, James; Reid, Jessica L; Driezen, Pete; Boudreau, Christian; Santillán, Edna Arillo

2012-03-01

Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packages are a prominent and effective means of communicating the risks of smoking; however, there is little research on effective types of message content and socio-demographic effects. This study tested message themes and content of pictorial warnings in Mexico. Face-to-face surveys were conducted with 544 adult smokers and 528 youth in Mexico City. Participants were randomized to view 5-7 warnings for two of 15 different health effects. Warnings for each health effect included a text-only warning and pictorial warnings with various themes: "graphic" health effects, "lived experience", symbolic images, and testimonials. Pictorial health warnings were rated as more effective than text-only warnings. Pictorial warnings featuring "graphic" depictions of disease were significantly more effective than symbolic images or experiences of human suffering. Adding testimonial information to warnings increased perceived effectiveness. Adults who were female, older, had lower education, and intended to quit smoking rated warnings as more effective, although the magnitude of these differences was modest. Few interactions were observed between socio-demographics and message theme. Graphic depictions of disease were perceived by youth and adults as the most effective warning theme. Perceptions of warnings were generally similar across socio-demographic groups.

Development of a Global Evaporative Stress Index Based on Thermal and Microwave LST towards Improved Monitoring of Agricultural Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hain, C.; Anderson, M. C.; Otkin, J.; Holmes, T. R.; Gao, F.

2017-12-01

This presentation will describe the development of a global agricultural monitoring tool, with a focus on providing early warning of developing vegetation stress for agricultural decision-makers and stakeholders at relatively high spatial resolution (5-km). The tool is based on remotely sensed estimates of evapotranspiration, retrieved via energy balance principals using observations of land surface temperature. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) represents anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-potential ET generated with the ALEXI surface energy balance model. The LST inputs to ESI have been shown to provide early warning information about the development of vegetation stress with stress-elevated canopy temperatures observed well before a decrease in greenness is detected in remotely sensed vegetation indices. As a diagnostic indicator of actual ET, the ESI requires no information regarding antecedent precipitation or soil moisture storage capacity - the current available moisture to vegetation is deduced directly from the remotely sensed LST signal. This signal also inherently accounts for both precipitation and non-precipitation related inputs/sinks to the plant-available soil moisture pool (e.g., irrigation) which can modify crop response to rainfall anomalies. Independence from precipitation data is a benefit for global agricultural monitoring applications due to sparseness in existing ground-based precipitation networks, and time delays in public reporting. Several enhancements to the current ESI framework will be addressed as requested from project stakeholders: (a) integration of "all-sky" MW Ka-band LST retrievals to augment "clear-sky" thermal-only ESI in persistently cloudy regions; (b) operational production of ESI Rapid Change Indices which provide important early warning information related to onset of actual vegetation stress; and (c) assessment of ESI as a predictor of global yield anomalies; initial studies have shown the ability of intra-seasonal ESI to provide an early indication of at-harvest agricultural yield anomalies.

An SNMP-based solution to enable remote ISO/IEEE 11073 technical management.

PubMed

Lasierra, Nelia; Alesanco, Alvaro; García, José

2012-07-01

This paper presents the design and implementation of an architecture based on the integration of simple network management protocol version 3 (SNMPv3) and the standard ISO/IEEE 11073 (X73) to manage technical information in home-based telemonitoring scenarios. This architecture includes the development of an SNMPv3-proxyX73 agent which comprises a management information base (MIB) module adapted to X73. In the proposed scenario, medical devices (MDs) send information to a concentrator device [designated as compute engine (CE)] using the X73 standard. This information together with extra information collected in the CE is stored in the developed MIB. Finally, the information collected is available for remote access via SNMP connection. Moreover, alarms and events can be configured by an external manager in order to provide warnings of irregularities in the MDs' technical performance evaluation. This proposed SNMPv3 agent provides a solution to integrate and unify technical device management in home-based telemonitoring scenarios fully adapted to X73.

The Warning Signs of Learning Disabilities. ERIC Digest #E603.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergert, Susan

This brief paper summarizes warning signs of learning disabilities in preschool children, elementary school children, and secondary school children. It notes that learning disabilities are presumed to arise from dysfunctions in the brain resulting in significant difficulties in perceiving information, processing and/or remembering information,…

Designing Fatigue Warning Systems: The perspective of professional drivers.

PubMed

Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Peng, Qijia; Li, Musen; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei

2016-03-01

Professional drivers have been characterized as experiencing heavy fatigue resulting from long driving time in their daily work. This study aimed to explore the potential demand of Fatigue Warning Systems (FWSs) among professional drivers as a means of reducing the danger of fatigue driving and to examine their opinions regarding the design of FWSs. Six focus groups with 35 participants and a questionnaire survey with 600 respondents were conducted among Chinese truck and taxi drivers to collect qualitative and quantitative data concerning the current situation of fatigue driving and opinions regarding the design of FWSs. The results revealed that both truck and taxi drivers had a positive attitude toward FWSs, and they hoped this system could not only monitor and warn them regarding their fatigue but also somewhat relieve their fatigue before they could stop and rest. As for warning signals, participants preferred auditory warnings, as opposed to visual, vibrotactile or electric stimuli. Interestingly, it was proposed that verbal warnings involving the information regarding consequences of fatigue driving or the wishes of drivers' family members would be more effective. Additionally, different warning patterns, including graded, single and continuous warnings, were discussed in the focus group. Finally, the participants proposed many other suggestions, as well as their concerns regarding FWSs, which will provide valuable information for companies who wish to develop FWSs for professional drivers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Enhanced Precision Geolocation in 4G Wireless Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

years has implemented a National Emergency Warning System using text messages delivered to cell phones [5]. The November 1999 FCC E911 regulations...statistical theory of passive geolocation of emitters may be found in [18]. Papers that survey methods of geolocation applied to cell phones include [4...where to put the tower % n: which tower to place %randomTowers(obj,dispersion, seperation ): generates % random towers for the network % obj: the network

On the importance of a correct divulgation of monitoring results for an efficient management of landslide emergencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Manconi, Andrea; Allasia, Paolo

2015-04-01

In the last decades, technological evolution has strongly increased the number of instruments that can be used to monitor landslide phenomena. Robotized Total Stations, GB-InSAR, and GPS are only few examples of the systems that can be used for the control of the topographic changes due to the landslide activity. These monitoring systems are often merged in a complex network, aimed at controlling the most important physical parameters influencing the evolution of landslide activity. The technological level reached by these systems allows us to use them for early warning purposes. Critical thresholds are identified and, when overcome, emergency actions are associated to protect population living in areas potentially involved by landslide failure. The use of these early warning systems can be very useful for the decision makers, which have to manage emergency conditions due to a landslide acceleration likely precursor of a collapse. At this stage, every instrument has a proper management system and the dataset obtained is often not compatible with the results of the others systems. The level of complexity increases with the number of monitoring systems and often could generate a paradox: the source of data are so numerous and difficult to interpret that a full understanding of the phenomenon could be hampered. Nowadays, a correct divulgation of the recent evolution of a landslide potentially dangerous for the population is very important. The Geohazard Monitoring Group of CNR IRPI developed a communication strategy to divulgate the monitoring network results based on both, a dedicated web page (for the publication in near real time of last updates), and periodical bulletins (for a deeper analysis of the available dataset). To manage the near real time application we developed a system called ADVICE (ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning) that collects all the available data of a monitoring network and creates user-friendly representations of the recent landslide evolution. The system is also able to manage early warnings based on pre-defined thresholds (usually related to the analysis of displacement and/or velocity) sending emails and SMS. Starting from the same dataset, the representations are different if the information has to be delivered to the population or the technicians involved in the landslide emergency. Our communication strategy considers three different levels of representations of the acquired dataset to be able to communicate the results to the different stakeholders potentially involved in the emergency. This communication scheme has been achieved over time, thank to the experience acquired during the management of monitoring networks relevant to different case studies, such as: Mt. de La Saxe Landslide (Aosta Valley, NW Italy), Ripoli landslide (Emilia Romagna region, central Italy), Montaguto landslide (Campania region, south Italy). Here we present how the correct and user-friendly communication of the monitoring results has been an important added value to support decision makers and population during emergency scenarios.

Climate Engine - Monitoring Drought with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegewisch, K.; Daudert, B.; Morton, C.; McEvoy, D.; Huntington, J. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Drought has adverse effects on society through reduced water availability and agricultural production and increased wildfire risk. An abundance of remotely sensed imagery and climate data are being collected in near-real time that can provide place-based monitoring and early warning of drought and related hazards. However, in an era of increasing wealth of earth observations, tools that quickly access, compute, and visualize archives, and provide answers at relevant scales to better inform decision-making are lacking. We have developed ClimateEngine.org, a web application that uses Google's Earth Engine platform to enable users to quickly compute and visualize real-time observations. A suite of drought indices allow us to monitor and track drought from local (30-meters) to regional scales and contextualize current droughts within the historical record. Climate Engine is currently being used by U.S. federal agencies and researchers to develop baseline conditions and impact assessments related to agricultural, ecological, and hydrological drought. Climate Engine is also working with the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) to expedite monitoring agricultural drought over broad areas at risk of food insecurity globally.

Tsunami Forecasting and Monitoring in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Power, William; Gale, Nora

2011-06-01

New Zealand is exposed to tsunami threats from several sources that vary significantly in their potential impact and travel time. One route for reducing the risk from these tsunami sources is to provide advance warning based on forecasting and monitoring of events in progress. In this paper the National Tsunami Warning System framework, including the responsibilities of key organisations and the procedures that they follow in the event of a tsunami threatening New Zealand, are summarised. A method for forecasting threat-levels based on tsunami models is presented, similar in many respects to that developed for Australia by Allen and Greenslade (Nat Hazards 46:35-52, 2008), and a simple system for easy access to the threat-level forecasts using a clickable pdf file is presented. Once a tsunami enters or initiates within New Zealand waters, its progress and evolution can be monitored in real-time using a newly established network of online tsunami gauge sensors placed at strategic locations around the New Zealand coasts and offshore islands. Information from these gauges can be used to validate and revise forecasts, and assist in making the all-clear decision.

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

IFKIS - ten years of experience with the intercantonal early warning and crisis information system as a good-practice example for local capacity building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bründl, M.; Stoffel, L.

2012-04-01

As a consequence of the avalanche winter in January/February 1999 in Switzerland the project "intercantonal early warning and crisis information system" (IFKIS) was initialised. The goal of this project was to close the gaps recognised in the event analysis of this one-month avalanche period, which caused 17 fatalities and over 600 million CHF of damage [1,2]. Whereas the system of integral avalanche protection consisting of technical measures, land use planning and protection forests proved to be successful, the most important gaps were found to be in the organisational part. Especially communities who did not have an every-winter-experience had faced problems in managing the extraordinary event. The main deficiencies were less experienced or even missing local avalanche safety services and missing information and communication. The results of the IFKIS project embrace a concept for education courses, a concept for compulsory booklets and a guideline for the daily work in local avalanche safety services, and the information system IFKIS-InfoManager improving the two-way communication between the national avalanche warning service and the local services on the one side and enhancing the communication between local and regional avalanche services (IFKIS-MIS) on the other side [3]. The results of the project IFKIS are implemented in practice since 10 years. Since 2000 every winter two to three courses were conducted at two levels either in German, French and Italian. Since 2000 about thousand participants completed the courses. Feedback from participants and observations made by cantonal authorities and the national avalanche warning centre SLF revealed that these education courses greatly improved the local capacity for dealing with critical avalanche situations. The system of regular avalanches courses at the community level served meanwhile as a good-practice example for comparable courses initialised by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) as a consequence of the severe flood events in 2005 in Switzerland. The goal of these courses is to establish a network of natural hazard observers in every community in Switzerland. The information system IFKIS served as a good-practice example for the development of the "Common Information Platform GIN", also as a consequence of the flood event 2005. We will present experiences from this 10-year period in which capacities of local and regional stakeholders, institutions and authorities were considerably improved. Based on the framework of various capacities developed in the EU FP7 project "CapHaz-Net", we will highlight crucial cornerstones necessary for improving social capacities by the example of the IFKIS-framework in Switzerland.

Research on public participant urban infrastructure safety monitoring system using smartphone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xuefeng; Wang, Niannian; Ou, Jinping; Yu, Yan; Li, Mingchu

2017-04-01

Currently more and more people concerned about the safety of major public security. Public participant urban infrastructure safety monitoring and investigation has become a trend in the era of big data. In this paper, public participant urban infrastructure safety protection system based on smart phones is proposed. The system makes it possible to public participant disaster data collection, monitoring and emergency evaluation in the field of disaster prevention and mitigation. Function of the system is to monitor the structural acceleration, angle and other vibration information, and extract structural deformation and implement disaster emergency communications based on smartphone without network. The monitoring data is uploaded to the website to create urban safety information database. Then the system supports big data analysis processing, the structure safety assessment and city safety early warning.

Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gonzalez, Frank

2009-04-06

After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

Science and Engineering of an Operational Tsunami Forecasting System

ScienceCinema

Gonzalez, Frank

2017-12-09

After a review of tsunami statistics and the destruction caused by tsunamis, a means of forecasting tsunamis is discussed as part of an overall program of reducing fatalities through hazard assessment, education, training, mitigation, and a tsunami warning system. The forecast is accomplished via a concept called Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART). Small changes of pressure at the sea floor are measured and relayed to warning centers. Under development is an international modeling network to transfer, maintain, and improve tsunami forecast models.

Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin

PubMed Central

Caulkins, Jonathan P.

2001-01-01

Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple model in which emergency department mentions are driven by only prices explains more than 95% of the variation in emergency department mentions. Conclusions. Fluctuations in prices are an important determinant of adverse health outcomes associated with drugs. PMID:11527779

Naltrexone

MedlinePlus

... other information should I know? Brand names IMPORTANT WARNING: Naltrexone may cause liver damage when taken in ... these symptoms or those listed in the IMPORTANT WARNING section, call your doctor immediately: confusion hallucinations (seeing ...

Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

2014-05-01

Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.

1987-01-01

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

Frequency and Content of Conversations About Pictorial Warnings on Cigarette Packs.

PubMed

Morgan, Jennifer C; Southwell, Brian G; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Golden, Shelley D; Brewer, Noel T

2018-06-07

Social interactions are a key mechanism through which health communication efforts, including pictorial cigarette pack warnings, may exert their effects. We sought to better understand social interactions elicited by pictorial cigarette pack warnings. A controlled trial randomly assigned US adult smokers (n = 2149) to have their cigarette packs labeled with pictorial or text-only warnings for 4 weeks. Smokers completed surveys during the baseline visit and each of the subsequent 4 weekly visits. Smokers with pictorial warnings on their packs had more conversations throughout the trial compared to those with text-only warnings (8.2 conversations vs 5.0, p<.01). The highest number of conversations occurred during the first week. Smokers with pictorial warnings were more likely than those with text-only warnings to discuss the health effects of smoking, whether the warnings would make them want to quit and whether the warnings would make others want to quit (all p < .05). Smokers were more likely to describe pictorial warnings as scary, gross, or depressing and gloomy during conversations than text-only warnings (all p < .05). Pictorial warnings sparked more conversations about the warnings, the health effects of smoking, and quitting smoking than text-only warnings. These social interactions may extend the reach of pictorial warnings beyond the targeted smoker and may be one of the processes by which pictorial warnings have impact. Health communication can influence behavior by changing social interactions. Our trial characterized social interactions about pictorial cigarette pack warnings with a large longitudinal sample in a real-world setting. Understanding these conversations can inform the United States and other countries as they improve existing warnings and help tobacco control policy makers and health communication theorists understand how social interactions triggered by warnings affect smoking.

Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

PubMed Central

Squartini, Tiziano; van Lelyveld, Iman; Garlaschelli, Diego

2013-01-01

The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of ‘systemic’ risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly interbank exposures among Dutch banks over the period 1998–2008, ending with the crisis. After controlling for the link density, many topological properties display an abrupt change in 2008, providing a clear – but unpredictable – signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the heterogeneity of banks' connectivity is controlled for, the same properties show a gradual transition to the crisis, starting in 2005 and preceded by an even earlier period during which anomalous debt loops could have led to the underestimation of counter-party risk. These early-warning signals are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific data, as routinely done. We discuss important implications for bank regulatory policies. PMID:24285089

Women’s Perspectives on Smoking and Pregnancy and Graphic Warning Labels

PubMed Central

Levis, Denise M.; Stone-Wiggins, Brenda; O’Hegarty, Michelle; Tong, Van T.; Polen, Kara N. D.; Cassell, Cynthia H.; Council, Mary

2015-01-01

Objectives To explore women’s knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs about adverse outcomes associated with smoking during pregnancy and which outcomes might motivate cessation; to explore reactions to graphic warnings depicting 2 adverse outcomes. Methods Twelve focus groups were conducted with women of childbearing age who were current smokers. Results Participants had low to moderate awareness of many outcomes and believed it was acceptable to smoke in the first trimester before knowledge of pregnancy. Perceived susceptibility to outcomes was low. Motivators included risk-focused information, especially serious risks to the baby (eg, stillbirth, SIDS). Graphic warnings produced strong reactions, especially the warning with a real photo. Conclusions Despite barriers to reducing rates of smoking during pregnancy, educational information and photos depicting babies’ risks could motivate women to quit. PMID:24933145

Alcohol Warning Label Awareness and Attention: A Multi-method Study.

PubMed

Pham, Cuong; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Parkinson, Joy; Li, Shanshi

2018-01-01

Evaluation of alcohol warning labels requires careful consideration ensuring that research captures more than awareness given that labels may not be prominent enough to attract attention. This study investigates attention of current in market alcohol warning labels and examines whether attention can be enhanced through theoretically informed design. Attention scores obtained through self-report methods are compared to objective measures (eye-tracking). A multi-method experimental design was used delivering four conditions, namely control, colour, size and colour and size. The first study (n = 559) involved a self-report survey to measure attention. The second study (n = 87) utilized eye-tracking to measure fixation count and duration and time to first fixation. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was utilized. Eye-tracking identified that 60% of participants looked at the current in market alcohol warning label while 81% looked at the optimized design (larger and red). In line with observed attention self-reported attention increased for the optimized design. The current study casts doubt on dominant practices (largely self-report), which have been used to evaluate alcohol warning labels. Awareness cannot be used to assess warning label effectiveness in isolation in cases where attention does not occur 100% of the time. Mixed methods permit objective data collection methodologies to be triangulated with surveys to assess warning label effectiveness. Attention should be incorporated as a measure in warning label effectiveness evaluations. Colour and size changes to the existing Australian warning labels aided by theoretically informed design increased attention. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Development of a low mobility IEEE 802.15.4 compliant VANET system for urban environments.

PubMed

Nazabal, Juan Antonio; Falcone, Francisco; Fernández-Valdivielso, Carlos; Matías, Ignacio Raúl

2013-05-29

The use of Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks (VANETs) is growing nowadays and it includes both roadside-to-vehicle communication (RVC) and inter-vehicle communication (IVC). The purpose of VANETs is to exchange useful information between vehicles and the roadside infrastructures for making an intelligent use of them. There are several possible applications for this technology like: emergency warning system for vehicles, cooperative adaptive cruise control or collision avoidance, among others. The objective of this work is to develop a VANET prototype system for urban environments using IEEE 802.15.4 compliant devices. Simulation-based values of the estimated signal strength and radio link quality values are obtained and compared with measurements in outdoor conditions to validate an implemented VANET system. The results confirm the possibility of implementing low cost vehicular communication networks operating at moderate vehicular speeds.

Perceived effectiveness of pictorial health warnings among Mexican youth and adults: a population-level intervention to reduce tobacco related inequities

PubMed Central

Hammond, David; Thrasher, James; Reid, Jessica L.; Driezen, Pete; Boudreau, Christian; Santillan, Edna Arillo

2015-01-01

Purpose Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packages are a prominent and effective means of communicating the risks of smoking; however, there is little research on effective types of message content and socio-demographic effects. This study tested message themes and content of pictorial warnings in Mexico. Methods Face-to-face surveys were conducted with 544 adult smokers and 528 youth in Mexico City. Participants were randomized to view 5–7 warnings for two of 15 different health effects. Warnings for each health effect included a text-only warning and pictorial warnings with various themes: “graphic” health effects, “lived experience”, symbolic images, and testimonials. Results Pictorial health warnings were rated as more effective than text-only warnings. Pictorial warnings featuring “graphic” depictions of disease were significantly more effective than symbolic images or experiences of human suffering. Adding testimonial information to warnings increased perceived effectiveness. Adults who were female, older, had lower education, and intended to quit smoking rated warnings as more effective, although the magnitude of these differences was modest. Few interactions were observed between socio-demographics and message theme. Conclusions Graphic depictions of disease were perceived by youth and adults as the most effective warning theme. Perceptions of warnings were generally similar across socio-demographic groups. PMID:22362058

Severe rainfall prediction systems for civil protection purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comellas, A.; Llasat, M. C.; Molini, L.; Parodi, A.; Siccardi, F.

2010-09-01

One of the most common natural hazards impending on Mediterranean regions is the occurrence of severe weather structures able to produce heavy rainfall. Floods have killed about 1000 people across all Europe in last 10 years. With the aim of mitigating this kind of risk, quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and rain probability forecasts are two tools nowadays available for national meteorological services and institutions responsible for weather forecasting in order to and predict rainfall, by using either the deterministic or the probabilistic approach. This study provides an insight of the different approaches used by Italian (DPC) and Catalonian (SMC) Civil Protection and the results they achieved with their peculiar issuing-system for early warnings. For the former, the analysis considers the period between 2006-2009 in which the predictive ability of the forecasting system, based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-I7, has been put into comparison with ground based observations (composed by more than 2000 raingauge stations, Molini et al., 2009). Italian system is mainly focused on regional-scale warnings providing forecasts for periods never shorter than 18 hours and very often have a 36-hour maximum duration . The information contained in severe weather bulletins is not quantitative and usually is referred to a specific meteorological phenomena (thunderstorms, wind gales et c.). Updates and refining have a usual refresh time of 24 hours. SMC operates within the Catalonian boundaries and uses a warning system that mixes both quantitative and probabilistic information. For each administrative region ("comarca") Catalonia is divided into, forecasters give an approximate value of the average predicted rainfall and the probability of overcoming that threshold. Usually warnings are re-issued every 6 hours and their duration depends on the predicted time extent of the storm. In order to provide a comprehensive QPF verification, the rainfall predicted by Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5), the SMC forecast operational model, is compared with the local rain gauge network for year 2008 (Comellas et al., 2010). This study presents benefits and drawbacks of both Italian and Catalonian systems. Moreover, a particular attention is paid on the link between system's predictive ability and the predicted severe weather type as a function of its space-time development.

Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

2003-12-01

Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated warning systems and equity issues associated with possible differential access to warnings. Finally, we will review the status of legal authorities and liabilities faced by organizations that assume various warning system roles and possible approaches to setting up a pilot project to introduce early warning. Our presentation will suggest that introducing an early warning system requires multi-disciplinary and multi-agency cooperation and thoughtful discussion among organizations likely to be providers and participants in an early warning system. Recalling our experience with earthquake prediction, we will look at early warning as a promising but unproven technology and recommend moving forward with caution and patience.

Environment Agency England flood warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

2015-04-01

Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

The Early Warning System(EWS) as First Stage to Generate and Develop Shake Map for Bucharest to Deep Vrancea Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmureanu, G.; Ionescu, C.; Marmureanu, A.; Grecu, B.; Cioflan, C.

2007-12-01

EWS made by NIEP is the first European system for real-time early detection and warning of the seismic waves in case of strong deep earthquakes. EWS uses the time interval (28-32 seconds) between the moment when earthquake is detected by the borehole and surface local accelerometers network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area, to deliver timely integrated information in order to enable actions to be taken before a main destructive shaking takes place. Early warning system is viewed as part of an real-time information system that provide rapid information, about an earthquake impeding hazard, to the public and disaster relief organizations before (early warning) and after a strong earthquake (shake map).This product is fitting in with other new product on way of National Institute for Earth Physics, that is, the shake map which is a representation of ground shaking produced by an event and it will be generated automatically following large Vrancea earthquakes. Bucharest City is located in the central part of the Moesian platform (age: Precambrian and Paleozoic) in the Romanian Plain, at about 140 km far from Vrancea area. Above a Cretaceous and a Miocene deposit (with the bottom at roundly 1,400 m of depth), a Pliocene shallow water deposit (~ 700m thick) was settled. The surface geology consists mainly of Quaternary alluvial deposits. Later loess covered these deposits and the two rivers crossing the city (Dambovita and Colentina) carved the present landscape. During the last century Bucharest suffered heavy damage and casualties due to 1940 (Mw = 7.7) and 1977 (Mw = 7.4) Vrancea earthquakes. For example, 32 high tall buildings collapsed and more then 1500 people died during the 1977 event. The innovation with comparable or related systems worldwide is that NIEP will use the EWS to generate a virtual shake map for Bucharest (140 km away of epicentre) immediately after the magnitude is estimated (in 3-4 seconds after the detection in epicentre) and later make corrections by using real time dataflow from each K2 accelerometers installed in Bucharest area, inclusively nonlinear effects. Thus, developing of a near real-time shake map for Bucharest urban area is of highest interest, providing valuable information to the civil defense, decision makers and general public on the area where the ground motion is most severe. EWS made by NIEP can be considered the first stage to generate and develop the shake map for Bucharest to deep Vrancea earthquakes.

CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

2015-12-01

CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

Applying Network Theory to Develop a Dedicated National Intelligence Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department .133 There is an interesting difference between the Washington, D.C. Police Department mission and others in...123 Atlanta, the TEW (Terrorist Early Warning) group (which is part of the Los Angeles Police Department ), and the intelligence and counter...intelligence “fusion” centers and perhaps the Los Angeles Police Department TEW. The

Warning Statements and Safety Practices among Manufacturers and Distributors of Electronic Cigarette Liquids in the United States.

PubMed

Fagan, Pebbles; Pokhrel, Pallav; Herzog, Thaddeus A; Guy, Mignonne C; Sakuma, Kari-Lyn K; Trinidad, Dennis R; Cassel, Kevin; Jorgensen, Dorothy; Lynch, Tania; Felicitas-Perkins, Jamie Q; Palafox, Sherilyn; Hamamura, Faith; Maloney, Sarah; Degree, Kaylah; Sterling, Kymberle; Moolchan, Eric; Clanton, Mark S; Eissenberg, Thomas

2017-05-18

Prior to the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) regulation of electronic cigarettes and warning statements related to nicotine addiction, there was no critical examination of manufacturer/distributor voluntary practices that could potentially inform FDA actions aimed to protect consumers. This study examined the content of warning statements and safety characteristics of electronic cigarette liquid bottles using a national sample. Research staff randomly selected four electronic cigarette liquid manufacturers/distributors from four U.S. geographic regions. Staff documented the characteristics of product packaging and content of warning statements on 147 electronic cigarette liquids (0-30 mg/ml of nicotine) purchased online from 16 manufacturers/distributors in April of 2016. Data showed that 97.9% of the electronic cigarette liquid bottles included a warning statement, most of which focused on nicotine exposure rather than health. Only 22.4% of bottles used a warning statement that indicated the product "contained nicotine". Of bottles that advertised a nicotine-based concentration of 12 mg/ml, 26% had a warning statements stated that the product "contains nicotine". None of the statements that indicated that the product "contained nicotine" stated that nicotine was "addictive". All bottles had a safety cap and 12% were in plastic shrink-wrap. Fifty-six percent of the websites had a minimum age requirement barrier that prevented under-aged persons from entering. Most manufacturers/distributors printed a warning statement on electronic cigarette liquid bottles, but avoided warning consumers about the presence and the addictiveness of nicotine. Studies are needed to examine manufacturer/distributor modifications to product packaging and how packaging affects consumer behaviors. These data can inform future FDA requirements related to the packaging and advertising of e-cigarette liquids; regulation related to the content of warning statements, including exposure warning statements, which are not currently mandated; and requirements on websites or language on packaging to help manufacturers adhere to the minimum age of purchase regulation. The data can also be used to help FDA develop additional guidance on the framing of statements on packaging that helps consumers make informed decisions about purchasing the product or protecting young people from use or unintentional exposure to the product. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of the 2014 Food and Drug Administration Warnings Against Power Morcellation.

PubMed

Lum, Deirdre A; Sokol, Eric R; Berek, Jonathan S; Schulkin, Jay; Chen, Ling; McElwain, Cora-Ann; Wright, Jason D

2016-01-01

To determine whether members of the AAGL Advancing Minimally Invasive Gynecologic Surgery Worldwide (AAGL) and members of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists Collaborative Ambulatory Research Network (ACOG CARN) have changed their clinical practice based on the 2014 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warnings against power morcellation. A survey study. Participants were invited to complete this online survey (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). AAGL and ACOG CARN members. An online anonymous survey with 24 questions regarding demographics and changes to clinical practice during minimally invasive myomectomies and hysterectomies based on the 2014 FDA warnings against power morcellation. A total of 615 AAGL members and 54 ACOG CARN members responded (response rates of 8.2% and 60%, respectively). Before the FDA warnings, 85.8% and 86.9%, respectively, were using power morcellation during myomectomies and hysterectomies. After the FDA warnings, 71.1% and 75.8% of respondents reported stopping the use of power morcellation during myomectomies and hysterectomies. The most common reasons cited for discontinuing the use of power morcellation or using it less often were hospital mandate (45.6%), the concern for legal consequences (16.1%), and the April 2014 FDA warning (13.9%). Nearly half of the respondents (45.6%) reported an increase in their rate of laparotomy. Most (80.3%) believed that the 2014 FDA warnings have not led to an improvement in patient outcomes and have led to harming patients (55.1%). AAGL and ACOG CARN respondents reported decreased use of power morcellation during minimally invasive gynecologic surgery after the 2014 FDA warnings, the most common reason cited being hospital mandate. Rates of laparotomy have increased. Most members surveyed believe that the FDA warnings have not improved patient outcomes. Copyright © 2016 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Engendering Climate Information Networks in Africa: Case Studies of Digital and FM Radio for Disseminating Disaster Early Warnings to Women and Youth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, M. M.; Pratt, M.

2002-05-01

This paper examines the effectiveness of FM and digital radio in disseminating weather and climate information to remote rural populations in Niger and Uganda. In Niger, poor communications infrastructure necessitated the establishment of a basic radio system as a first step towards disseminating climate information. Dissemination via digital radio is limited, in this context, by lack of technical support and the difficulty of maintaining computer equipment in the hot and dusty climate. Community FM stations have supported a range of mitigation activities that reduced vulnerability in all sites studied. Digital radio proved a more effective tool for disseminating climate information in Uganda, where technical knowledge is more prevalent and infrastructure networks are stronger. The primary challenge in Uganda lies in maintaining equipment in remote locations and disseminating information to a wider audience by linking with FM radio. Climate and weather information is already demonstrating positive impacts on agricultural production in Uganda, health and civil society in Niger, and on vulnerability reduction in both countries. Radio,particularly FM, was an excellent medium for disseminating information to women, youth, and other hard to reach populations. Discussion will focus on recommendations for improving the effectiveness of both systems and for practically linking FM and digital dissemination systems for better communication of climate information. Implications of the case studies will also be discussed in the context of digital and FM radio as media for disseminating other types of scientific information.

Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

PubMed Central

Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and non-structural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums, photocells, trip wires etc. Event warning systems for debris flows have a strong linkage with debris-flow monitoring that is carried out for research purposes: the same sensors are often used for both monitoring and warning, although warning systems have higher requirements of robustness than monitoring systems. The paper presents a description of the sensors employed for debris-flow monitoring and event warning systems, with attention given to advantages and drawbacks of different types of sensors. PMID:27879828

Impact of Tobacco-Related Health Warning Labels across Socioeconomic, Race and Ethnic Groups: Results from a Randomized Web-Based Experiment

PubMed Central

Cantrell, Jennifer; Vallone, Donna M.; Thrasher, James F.; Nagler, Rebekah H.; Feirman, Shari P.; Muenz, Larry R.; He, David Y.; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2013-01-01

Background The U.S. Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009 requires updating of the existing text-only health warning labels on tobacco packaging with nine new warning statements accompanied by pictorial images. Survey and experimental research in the U.S. and other countries supports the effectiveness of pictorial health warning labels compared with text-only warnings for informing smokers about the risks of smoking and encouraging cessation. Yet very little research has examined differences in reactions to warning labels by race/ethnicity, education or income despite evidence that population subgroups may differ in their ability to process health information. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the potential impact of pictorial warning labels compared with text-only labels among U.S. adult smokers from diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups. Methods/Findings Participants were adult smokers recruited from two online research panels (n = 3,371) into a web-based experimental study to view either the new pictorial warnings or text-only warnings. Participants viewed the labels and reported their reactions. Adjusted regression models demonstrated significantly stronger reactions for the pictorial condition for each outcome salience (b = 0.62, p<.001); perceived impact (b = 0.44, p<.001); credibility (OR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.22−1.62), and intention to quit (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.10−1.53). No significant results were found for interactions between condition and race/ethnicity, education, or income. The only exception concerned the intention to quit outcome, where the condition-by-education interaction was nearly significant (p = 0.057). Conclusions Findings suggest that the greater impact of the pictorial warning label compared to the text-only warning is consistent across diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic populations. Given their great reach, pictorial health warning labels may be one of the few tobacco control policies that have the potential to reduce communication inequalities across groups. Policies that establish strong pictorial warning labels on tobacco packaging may be instrumental in reducing the toll of the tobacco epidemic, particularly within vulnerable communities. PMID:23341895

Factual text and emotional pictures: overcoming a false dichotomy of cigarette warning labels.

PubMed

Popova, Lucy; Owusu, Daniel; Jenson, Desmond; Neilands, Torsten B

2017-04-20

In reviewing the first set of pictorial warning labels in the USA, the courts equated textual labels with facts and information, and images with emotion. This study tested the differences in perceived informativeness and emotion between textual and pictorial cigarette warning labels. An online study with 1838 US adults who were non-smokers (n=764), transitioning smokers (quit smoking in the past 2 years or currently trying to quit, n=505) or current smokers (n=569). Each participant evaluated 9 out of 81 text and pictorial cigarette warning labels. Participants reported to what extent they perceived the label as informative and factual and the negative emotions they felt while looking at each label. We used linear mixed models to account for the nesting of multiple observations within each participant. There were no significant differences in perceived informativeness between textual (mean 6.15 on a 9-point scale) and pictorial labels (6.14, p=0.80, Cohen's d=0.003). Textual labels evoked slightly less emotion (4.21 on a 9-point scale) than pictorial labels (4.42, p<0.001, Cohen's d=0.08). Perceived informativeness and emotion were strongly correlated (Pearson r=0.53, p<0.001). Our findings contradict courts' conclusions that pictorial messages are emotional and not factual. Pictorial labels are rated as informative and factual, textual labels evoke emotion, and emotionality and informativeness are strongly correlated. These findings serve as evidence for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to counteract the claim that pictorial warning labels, by definition, are not 'purely factual and uncontroversial'. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Does Adding Information on Toxic Constituents to Cigarette Pack Warnings Increase Smokers' Perceptions about the Health Risks of Smoking? A Longitudinal Study in Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cho, Yoo Jin; Thrasher, James F.; Swayampakala, Kamala; Lipkus, Isaac; Hammond, David; Cummings, Kenneth Michael; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua-Hie; Hardin, James W.

2018-01-01

Background: Health warning labels (HWLs) on cigarette packs in Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the United States include varying information about toxic cigarette smoke constituents and smoking-related health risks. HWL information changed more recently in Australia, Canada, and Mexico than in the United States. Aims: To investigate whether…

The effectiveness of risk communication regarding drug safety information: a nationwide survey by the Japanese public health insurance claims data.

PubMed

Hagiwara, Hiromi; Nakano, Shun; Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Tohkin, Masahiro

2015-06-01

We evaluated the effectiveness of warning letters published by the pharmaceutical regulatory agency in Japan on communication of drug safety and risk by quantitative analysis of the national health insurance claims database (NHICD). We then explored what factors may have affected risk communication. We measured the implementation rate of the hepatitis virus-monitoring test among methotrexate (MTX)-treated patients; a warning letter had been issued regarding the use of MTX, as it apparently activates the hepatitis virus. Data from the NHICD, which include 99·3% of Japanese residents, were used. A total of 4,933,481 patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (January-June, 2010) were the focus of this study. The implementation rate of the hepatitis virus-monitoring test increased from 1·4% before to 1·8% after the warning letter announcement. Logistic regression analysis suggested that the installation of a drug information management room is one of the important factors affecting risk communication. Further analysis revealed that the hepatitis virus monitoring rates in hospitals without drug information management rooms increased from 2·3% to 4·1% due to the issue of the warning letter. The warning letter from the regulatory agency plays an important role in risk communication in hospitals without drug information management rooms. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Smokers' and E-Cigarette Users' Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements.

PubMed

Wackowski, Olivia A; Hammond, David; O'Connor, Richard J; Strasser, Andrew A; Delnevo, Cristine D

2016-06-30

Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are "not a safe alternative to smoking". However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration's proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen's advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse's. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive.

Real-Time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation (READI) Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.

2014-12-01

Real-time GNSS networks are making a significant impact on our ability to forecast, assess, and mitigate the effects of geological hazards. I describe the activities of the Real-time Earthquake Analysis for Disaster Mitigation (READI) working group. The group leverages 600+ real-time GPS stations in western North America operated by UNAVCO (PBO network), Central Washington University (PANGA), US Geological Survey & Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SCIGN project), UC Berkeley & US Geological Survey (BARD network), and the Pacific Geosciences Centre (WCDA project). Our goal is to demonstrate an earthquake and tsunami early warning system for western North America. Rapid response is particularly important for those coastal communities that are in the near-source region of large earthquakes and may have only minutes of warning time, and who today are not adequately covered by existing seismic and basin-wide ocean-buoy monitoring systems. The READI working group is performing comparisons of independent real time analyses of 1 Hz GPS data for station displacements and is participating in government-sponsored earthquake and tsunami exercises in the Western U.S. I describe a prototype seismogeodetic system using a cluster of southern California stations that includes GNSS tracking and collocation with MEMS accelerometers for real-time estimation of seismic velocity and displacement waveforms, which has advantages for improved earthquake early warning and tsunami forecasts compared to seismic-only or GPS-only methods. The READI working group's ultimate goal is to participate in an Indo-Pacific Tsunami early warning system that utilizes GNSS real-time displacements and ionospheric measurements along with seismic, near-shore buoys and ocean-bottom pressure sensors, where available, to rapidly estimate magnitude and finite fault slip models for large earthquakes, and then forecast tsunami source, energy scale, geographic extent, inundation and runup. This will require cooperation with other real-time efforts around the Pacific Rim in terms of sharing, analysis centers, and advisory bulletins to the responsible government agencies. The IAG's Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), in particular its natural hazards theme, provides a natural umbrella for achieving this objective.

The effect of warnings on false memories in young and older adults.

PubMed

McCabe, David P; Smith, Anderson D

2002-10-01

In the present experiments, we examined adult age differences in the ability to suppress false memories, using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm (Deese, 1959; Roediger & McDermott, 1995). Participants studied lists of words (e.g., bed, rest, awake, etc.), each related to a nonpresented critical lure word (e.g., sleep). Typically, recognition tests reveal false alarms to critical lures at rates comparable to those for hits for studied words. In two experiments, separate groups of young and older adults were unwarned about the false memory effect, warned before studying the lists, or warned after study and before test. Lists were presented at either a slow rate (4 sec/word) or a faster rate (2 sec/word). Young adults were better able to discriminate between studied words and critical lures when warned about the DRM effect either before study or after study but before retrieval, and their performance improved with a slower presentation rate. Older adults were able to discriminate between studied words and critical lures when given warnings before study, but not when given warnings after study but before retrieval. Performance on a working memory capacity measure predicted false recognition following study and retrieval warnings. The results suggest that effective use of warnings to reduce false memories is contingent on the quality and type of encoded information, as well as on whether that information is accessed at retrieval. Furthermore, discriminating between similar sources of activation is dependent on working memory capacity, which declines with advancing age.

The Emotional Impact and Ease of Recall of Warning Signs for Suicide: A Controlled Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rudd, M. David; Mandrusiak, Michael; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.; Berman, Alan L.; Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Hollar, Daniel

2006-01-01

In light of concerns about potential iatrogenic effects of information about suicide, in the current study we examined the emotional impact of reading a list of warning signs for suicide in comparison to comparable lists for heart attacks and diabetes. All participants read two sets of warning signs, with the experimental group reading the suicide…

76 FR 58301 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Automatic Fire Sensor and Warning Device...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-20

.... Sec. 75.1103-8(b) and (c). MSHA expects to subsume these provisions into OMB 1219-0054, Fire....1103-5(a)(2)(ii) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems and the package is at OMB for its 3.... 75.1103-5(a) Automatic fire warning devices; actions, response in October 2010; OMB 1219-0127...

Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

2015-12-01

The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

Formulation and Optimization of Robust Sensor Placement Problems for Drinking Water Contamination Warning Systems

DOE PAGES

Watson, Jean-Paul; Murray, Regan; Hart, William E.

2009-11-13

We report that the sensor placement problem in contamination warning system design for municipal water distribution networks involves maximizing the protection level afforded by limited numbers of sensors, typically quantified as the expected impact of a contamination event; the issue of how to mitigate against high-consequence events is either handled implicitly or ignored entirely. Consequently, expected-case sensor placements run the risk of failing to protect against high-consequence 9/11-style attacks. In contrast, robust sensor placements address this concern by focusing strictly on high-consequence events and placing sensors to minimize the impact of these events. We introduce several robust variations of themore » sensor placement problem, distinguished by how they quantify the potential damage due to high-consequence events. We explore the nature of robust versus expected-case sensor placements on three real-world large-scale distribution networks. We find that robust sensor placements can yield large reductions in the number and magnitude of high-consequence events, with only modest increases in expected impact. Finally, the ability to trade-off between robust and expected-case impacts is a key unexplored dimension in contamination warning system design.« less

77 FR 53898 - Collection of Information Under Review by Office of Management and Budget

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-04

... following collections of information: 1625-0016, Welding and Hot Work Permits; Posting of Warning Signs.... Title: Welding and Hot Work Permits; Posting of Warning Signs. OMB Control Number: 1625-0016. Type of... facilities and vessels are in compliance with safety standards. A permit must be issued prior to welding or...

Lack of pregnancy warnings on over-the-counter dermatologic products containing potentially harmful hydroquinone.

PubMed

Bio, L L; Cies, J J

2017-07-01

To determine the presence of pregnancy warnings on over-the-counter (OTC) dermatologic products with hydroquinone, a potentially harmful ingredient. Data were obtained from the Food and Drug Administration National Drug Code Directory and Label Repository to identify OTC dermatologic products containing hydroquinone. Products were stratified based on pregnancy or general warning presence (WP) or absence (WA). Product characteristics were compared between groups: hydroquinone concentration, presence of external packaging, indication and warning statements. Of the 112 products studied, 21 had a pregnancy warning and 3 included a general warning against use: WP (n=24) and WA (n=88) group. External packaging was more prevalent in the WP group compared to WA (62.5% vs 29.5%, P=0.004). Majority of OTC dermatologic products containing hydroquinone did not have a pregnancy warning. This highlights the need for improved labeling and informs providers caring for pregnant women of OTC labeling limitations.

From Ecology to Finance (and Back?): A Review on Entropy-Based Null Models for the Analysis of Bipartite Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straka, Mika J.; Caldarelli, Guido; Squartini, Tiziano; Saracco, Fabio

2018-04-01

Bipartite networks provide an insightful representation of many systems, ranging from mutualistic networks of species interactions to investment networks in finance. The analyses of their topological structures have revealed the ubiquitous presence of properties which seem to characterize many—apparently different—systems. Nestedness, for example, has been observed in biological plant-pollinator as well as in country-product exportation networks. Due to the interdisciplinary character of complex networks, tools developed in one field, for example ecology, can greatly enrich other areas of research, such as economy and finance, and vice versa. With this in mind, we briefly review several entropy-based bipartite null models that have been recently proposed and discuss their application to real-world systems. The focus on these models is motivated by the fact that they show three very desirable features: analytical character, general applicability, and versatility. In this respect, entropy-based methods have been proven to perform satisfactorily both in providing benchmarks for testing evidence-based null hypotheses and in reconstructing unknown network configurations from partial information. Furthermore, entropy-based models have been successfully employed to analyze ecological as well as economic systems. As an example, the application of entropy-based null models has detected early-warning signals, both in economic and financial systems, of the 2007-2008 world crisis. Moreover, they have revealed a statistically-significant export specialization phenomenon of country export baskets in international trade, a result that seems to reconcile Ricardo's hypothesis in classical economics with recent findings on the (empirical) diversification industrial production at the national level. Finally, these null models have shown that the information contained in the nestedness is already accounted for by the degree sequence of the corresponding graphs.

Forewarning reduces fraud susceptibility in vulnerable consumers

PubMed Central

Scheibe, Susanne; Notthoff, Nanna; Menkin, Josephine; Ross, Lee; Shadel, Doug; Deevy, Martha; Carstensen, Laura L.

2014-01-01

Telemarketing fraud is pervasive and older consumers are disproportionally targeted. Given laboratory research showing that forewarning can effectively counter influence appeals, we conducted a field experiment to test whether forewarning could protect people who had been victimized in the past. A research assistant with prior experience as a telemarketer pitched a mock scam two or four weeks after participants were warned about the same scam or an entirely different scam. Both warnings reduced unequivocal acceptance of the mock scam although outright refusals (as opposed to expressions of skepticism) were more frequent with the same scam warning than the different scam warning. The same scam warning, but not the different scam warning, lost effectiveness over time. Findings demonstrate that social psychological research can inform effective protection strategies against telemarketing fraud. PMID:25328263

Communicating risk information and warnings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mileti, D. S.

1990-01-01

Major advances have occurred over the last 20 years about how to effectively communicate risk information and warnings to the public. These lessons have been hard won. Knowledge has mounted on the finding from social scientific studies of risk communication failures, successes and those which fell somewhere in between. Moreover, the last 2 decades have borne witness to the brith, cultivation, and blossoming of information sharing between those physical scientists who discover new information about risk and those communcation scientists who trace its diffusion and then measure pbulic reaction. 

The effect of a loss of model structural detail due to network skeletonization on contamination warning system design: case studies.

PubMed

Davis, Michael J; Janke, Robert

2018-01-04

The effect of limitations in the structural detail available in a network model on contamination warning system (CWS) design was examined in case studies using the original and skeletonized network models for two water distribution systems (WDSs). The skeletonized models were used as proxies for incomplete network models. CWS designs were developed by optimizing sensor placements for worst-case and mean-case contamination events. Designs developed using the skeletonized network models were transplanted into the original network model for evaluation. CWS performance was defined as the number of people who ingest more than some quantity of a contaminant in tap water before the CWS detects the presence of contamination. Lack of structural detail in a network model can result in CWS designs that (1) provide considerably less protection against worst-case contamination events than that obtained when a more complete network model is available and (2) yield substantial underestimates of the consequences associated with a contamination event. Nevertheless, CWSs developed using skeletonized network models can provide useful reductions in consequences for contaminants whose effects are not localized near the injection location. Mean-case designs can yield worst-case performances similar to those for worst-case designs when there is uncertainty in the network model. Improvements in network models for WDSs have the potential to yield significant improvements in CWS designs as well as more realistic evaluations of those designs. Although such improvements would be expected to yield improved CWS performance, the expected improvements in CWS performance have not been quantified previously. The results presented here should be useful to those responsible for the design or implementation of CWSs, particularly managers and engineers in water utilities, and encourage the development of improved network models.

The effect of a loss of model structural detail due to network skeletonization on contamination warning system design: case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert

2018-05-01

The effect of limitations in the structural detail available in a network model on contamination warning system (CWS) design was examined in case studies using the original and skeletonized network models for two water distribution systems (WDSs). The skeletonized models were used as proxies for incomplete network models. CWS designs were developed by optimizing sensor placements for worst-case and mean-case contamination events. Designs developed using the skeletonized network models were transplanted into the original network model for evaluation. CWS performance was defined as the number of people who ingest more than some quantity of a contaminant in tap water before the CWS detects the presence of contamination. Lack of structural detail in a network model can result in CWS designs that (1) provide considerably less protection against worst-case contamination events than that obtained when a more complete network model is available and (2) yield substantial underestimates of the consequences associated with a contamination event. Nevertheless, CWSs developed using skeletonized network models can provide useful reductions in consequences for contaminants whose effects are not localized near the injection location. Mean-case designs can yield worst-case performances similar to those for worst-case designs when there is uncertainty in the network model. Improvements in network models for WDSs have the potential to yield significant improvements in CWS designs as well as more realistic evaluations of those designs. Although such improvements would be expected to yield improved CWS performance, the expected improvements in CWS performance have not been quantified previously. The results presented here should be useful to those responsible for the design or implementation of CWSs, particularly managers and engineers in water utilities, and encourage the development of improved network models.

Combination of High Rate, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for Earthquake Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring with a Focus on the Pacific Rim.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimakov, L. G.; Passmore, P.; Raczka, J.; Alvarez, M.; Jackson, M.

2014-12-01

Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 sps) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic earthquakes in Southern California and the Pacific Rim, replicated on a shake table, over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various earthquake scenarios. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time earthquake notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.

Using Satellite Data to Build Climate Resilience: A Novel East Africa Drought Monitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slinski, K.; Hogue, T. S.; McCray, J. E.

2016-12-01

East Africa is affected by recurrent drought. The 2015-2016 El Niño triggered a severe drought across East Africa causing serious impacts to regional water security, health, and livelihoods. Ethiopia was the hardest hit, with the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs calling the recent drought the worst in 50 years. Resources to monitor the severity and progression of droughts are a critical component to disaster risk reduction, but are challenging to implement in regions with sparse data collection networks such as East Africa. Satellite data is used by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization Global Information and Early Warning System, the USAID Famine Early Warning System, and the Africa Drought and Flood Monitor. These systems use remotely sensed vegetation, soil moisture, and meteorological data to develop drought indices. However, they do not directly monitor impacts to water resources, which is necessary to appropriately target drought mitigation efforts. The current study combines new radar data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission with satellite imagery to perform a retrospective analysis of the impact of the 2015-2016 drought in East Africa on regional surface water. Inland water body extents during the drought are compared to historical trends to identify the most severely impacted areas. The developed tool has the potential to support on-the-ground humanitarian relief efforts and to refine predictions of water scarcity and crop impacts from existing hydrologic models and famine early warning systems.

An analysis of the warning letters issued by the FDA to pharmaceutical manufacturers regarding misleading health outcomes claims

PubMed Central

Chatterjee, Satabdi; Patel, Harshali K.; Sansgiry, Sujit S.

Objective To evaluate the number and type of warning letters issued by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to pharmaceutical manufacturers for promotional violations. Methods Two reviewers downloaded, printed and independently evaluated warning letters issued by the FDA to pharmaceutical manufacturers from years 2003-2008. Misleading claims were broadly classified as clinical, Quality-of-Life (QoL), and economic claims. Clinical claims included claims regarding unsubstantiated efficacy, safety and tolerability, superiority, broadening of indication and/or omission of risk information. QoL claims included unsubstantiated quality of life and/or health-related quality of life claims. Economic claims included any form of claim made on behalf of the pharmaceutical companies related to cost superiority of or cost savings from the drug compared to other drugs in the market. Results In the 6-year study period, 65 warning letters were issued by FDA, which contained 144 clinical, three QoL, and one economic claim. On an average, 11 warning letters were issued per year. Omission of risk information was the most frequently violated claim (30.6%) followed by unsubstantiated efficacy claims (18.6%). Warning letters were primarily directed to manufacturers of cardiovascular (14.6%), anti-microbial (14.6%), and CNS (12.5%) drugs. Majority of the claims referenced in warning letters contained promotional materials directed to physicians (57%). Conclusions The study found that misleading clinical outcome claims formed the majority of the promotional violations, and majority of the claims were directed to physicians. Since inadequate promotion of medications may lead to irrational prescribing, the study emphasizes the importance of disseminating reliable, credible, and scientific information to patients, and more importantly, physicians to protect public health. PMID:24155837

Warning Alert HITL Experiment Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monk, Kevin J.; Ferm, Lisa; Roberts, Zach

2018-01-01

Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) are being developed to support the integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace (NAS). Input from subject matter experts and multiple research studies have informed display requirements for Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems aimed at supporting timely and appropriate pilot responses to collision hazards. Phase 1 DAA MOPS alerting is designed to inform pilots if an avoidance maneuver is necessary; the two highest alert levels - caution and warning - indicate how soon pilot action is required and whether there is adequate time to coordinate with the air traffic controller (ATC). Additional empirical support is needed to clarify the extent to which warning-level alerting impacts DAA task performance. The present study explores the differential effects of the auditory and visual cues provided by the DAA Warning alert, and performance implications compared to caution-only alerting are discussed.

Effect of information education and communication (IEC) programme on knowledge of pregnant mothers regarding prevention and management of warning signs during pregnancy.

PubMed

Takoo, Sarla; Chhugani, Manju; Sharma, Veena

2013-01-01

The present study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of an Information, Education and Communication (IEC) programme on knowledge of pregnant mothers regarding prevention and management of warning signs during pregnancy in a selected health care setting at New Delhi. An evaluative research approach with one group pre-test and post-test design was adopted for the present study. A structured interview schedule was prepared. Purposive non-probability sampling technique was employed to interview 30 pregnant mothers who attended antenatal clinic. Data gathered was analysed and interpreted using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The study revealed that there was maximum knowledge deficit regarding warning signs of pregnancy. IEC programme was effective in enhancing the knowledge of pregnant mothers on prevention and management of warning signs during pregnancy.

Drug safety and the impact of drug warnings: An interrupted time series analysis of diabetes drug prescriptions in Germany and Denmark.

PubMed

Hostenkamp, Gisela; Fischer, Katharina Elisabeth; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2016-12-01

To analyse the impact of drug safety warnings from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on drug utilisation and their interaction with information released through national reimbursement bodies. Insurance claims data on anti-diabetic drug prescriptions in primary care in Germany and Denmark were analysed using interrupted time series analysis, with EMA drug warnings for thiazolidinediones (TZDs) in 2007 and 2011 as the intervention. Monthly drug utilisation data per substance in defined daily dosages (DDD) consumed per 1000 insurees were retrieved from the Danish national drug prescriptions register and one large statutory sickness fund in Germany. TZDs were generally reimbursed in Germany but restricted to individual reimbursement in Denmark. Consequently, utilisation of TZDs was much higher in Germany in 2007 compared with Denmark. For rosiglitazone, the drug warning had a significant impact on utilisation, reducing the number of DDD per 1000 insurees per day by -0.0105 in Denmark and -0.0312 in Germany (p-values<0.05). For pioglitazone, neither of the drug warnings had a significant effect on utilisation. The impact of EMA drug warnings differed across countries and might be mediated by information released through national reimbursement bodies and physician associations. Increasing complexity of new drugs and modified approval procedures require a strengthening of information exchange between drug regulation bodies and physicians to ensure patient safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation of an Alert and Response System in Haiti during the Early Stage of the Response to the Cholera Epidemic

PubMed Central

Santa-Olalla, Patricia; Gayer, Michelle; Magloire, Roc; Barrais, Robert; Valenciano, Marta; Aramburu, Carmen; Poncelet, Jean Luc; Gustavo Alonso, Juan Carlos; Van Alphen, Dana; Heuschen, Florence; Andraghetti, Roberta; Lee, Robert; Drury, Patrick; Aldighieri, Sylvain

2013-01-01

The start of the cholera epidemic in Haiti quickly highlighted the necessity of the implementation of an Alert and Response (A&R) System to complement the existing national surveillance system. The national system had been able to detect and confirm the outbreak etiology but required external support to monitor the spread of cholera and coordinate response, because much of the information produced was insufficiently timely for real-time monitoring and directing of a rapid, targeted response. The A&R System was designed by the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization in collaboration with the Haiti Ministry of Health, and it was based on a network of partners, including any institution, structure, or individual that could identify, verify, and respond to alerts. The defined objectives were to (1) save lives through early detection and treatment of cases and (2) control the spread through early intervention at the community level. The operational structure could be broken down into three principle categories: (1) alert (early warning), (2) verification and assessment of the information, and (3) efficient and timely response in coordination with partners to avoid duplication. Information generated by the A&R System was analyzed and interpreted, and the qualitative information was critical in qualifying the epidemic and defining vulnerable areas, particularly because the national surveillance system reported incomplete data for more than one department. The A&R System detected a number of alerts unrelated to cholera and facilitated rapid access to that information. The sensitivity of the system and its ability to react quickly was shown in May of 2011, when an abnormal increase in alerts coming from several communes in the Sud-Est Department in epidemiological weeks (EWs) 17 and 18 were noted and disseminated network-wide and response activities were implemented. The national cholera surveillance system did not register the increase until EWs 21 and 22, and the information did not become available until EWs 23 and 24, when the peak of cases had already been reached. Although many of the partners reporting alerts during the peak of the cholera epidemic have since left Haiti, the A&R System has continued to function as an Early Warning (EWARN) System, and it continues to be developed with recent activities, such as the distribution of cell phones to enhance alert communication. PMID:24106196

Implementation of an alert and response system in Haiti during the early stage of the response to the cholera epidemic.

PubMed

Santa-Olalla, Patricia; Gayer, Michelle; Magloire, Roc; Barrais, Robert; Valenciano, Marta; Aramburu, Carmen; Poncelet, Jean Luc; Gustavo Alonso, Juan Carlos; Van Alphen, Dana; Heuschen, Florence; Andraghetti, Roberta; Lee, Robert; Drury, Patrick; Aldighieri, Sylvain

2013-10-01

The start of the cholera epidemic in Haiti quickly highlighted the necessity of the implementation of an Alert and Response (A&R) System to complement the existing national surveillance system. The national system had been able to detect and confirm the outbreak etiology but required external support to monitor the spread of cholera and coordinate response, because much of the information produced was insufficiently timely for real-time monitoring and directing of a rapid, targeted response. The A&R System was designed by the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization in collaboration with the Haiti Ministry of Health, and it was based on a network of partners, including any institution, structure, or individual that could identify, verify, and respond to alerts. The defined objectives were to (1) save lives through early detection and treatment of cases and (2) control the spread through early intervention at the community level. The operational structure could be broken down into three principle categories: (1) alert (early warning), (2) verification and assessment of the information, and (3) efficient and timely response in coordination with partners to avoid duplication. Information generated by the A&R System was analyzed and interpreted, and the qualitative information was critical in qualifying the epidemic and defining vulnerable areas, particularly because the national surveillance system reported incomplete data for more than one department. The A&R System detected a number of alerts unrelated to cholera and facilitated rapid access to that information. The sensitivity of the system and its ability to react quickly was shown in May of 2011, when an abnormal increase in alerts coming from several communes in the Sud-Est Department in epidemiological weeks (EWs) 17 and 18 were noted and disseminated network-wide and response activities were implemented. The national cholera surveillance system did not register the increase until EWs 21 and 22, and the information did not become available until EWs 23 and 24, when the peak of cases had already been reached. Although many of the partners reporting alerts during the peak of the cholera epidemic have since left Haiti, the A&R System has continued to function as an Early Warning (EWARN) System, and it continues to be developed with recent activities, such as the distribution of cell phones to enhance alert communication.

Recall of anti-tobacco advertising and information, warning labels and news stories in a national sample of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers.

PubMed

Nicholson, Anna K; Borland, Ron; Sarin, Jasmine; Wallace, Sharon; van der Sterren, Anke E; Stevens, Matthew; Thomas, David P

2015-06-01

To describe recall of anti-tobacco advertising (mainstream and targeted), pack warning labels, and news stories among a national sample of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers, and to assess the association of these messages with attitudes that support quitting, including wanting to quit. A quota sampling design was used to recruit participants from communities served by 34 Aboriginal community-controlled health services and one community in the Torres Strait. We surveyed 1643 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smokers from April 2012 to October 2013. Frequency of recall of advertising and information, warning labels and news stories; recall of targeted and local advertising; attitudes about smoking and wanting to quit. More smokers recalled often noticing warning labels in the past month (65%) than recalled advertising and information (45%) or news stories (24%) in the past 6 months. When prompted, most (82%) recalled seeing a television advertisement. Just under half (48%) recalled advertising that featured an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person or artwork (targeted advertising), and 16% recalled targeted advertising from their community (local advertising). Frequent recall of warning labels, news stories and advertising was associated with worry about health and wanting to quit, but only frequent advertising recall was associated with believing that society disapproves of smoking. The magnitude of association with relevant attitudes and wanting to quit increased for targeted and local advertising. Strategies to tackle Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander smoking should sustain high levels of exposure to anti-tobacco advertising, news stories and warning labels. More targeted and local information may be particularly effective to influence relevant beliefs and subsequently increase quitting.

Advanced driver assistance systems: Using multimodal redundant warnings to enhance road safety.

PubMed

Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio

2017-01-01

This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulfikar, Can; Kariptas, Cagatay; Biyikoglu, Hikmet; Ozarpa, Cevat

2017-04-01

Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867km of gas lines with 750 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. The natural gas comes to Istanbul city borders with 70bar in 30inch diameter steel pipeline. The gas pressure is reduced to 20bar in RMS stations and distributed to district regulators inside the city. 110 of 750 district regulators are instrumented with strong motion accelerometers in order to cut gas flow during an earthquake event in the case of ground motion parameters exceeds the certain threshold levels. Also, state of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the gas pipelines are detected. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 750 district regulator sites. IGDAS Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction algorithm follows 4 stages as below: 1) Real-time ground motion data transmitted from 110 IGDAS and 110 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) acceleration stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI data center. 2) During an earthquake event EEW information is sent from IGDAS Scada Center to the IGDAS stations. 3) Automatic Shut-Off is applied at IGDAS district regulators, and calculated parameters are sent from stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI. 4) Integrated building and gas pipeline damage maps are prepared immediately after the earthquake event. The today's technology allows to rapidly estimate the expected level of shaking when an earthquake starts to occur. However, in Istanbul case for a potential Marmara Sea Earthquake, the time is very limited even to estimate the level of shaking. The robust threshold based EEW system is only algorithm for such a near source event to activate automatic shut-off mechanism in the critical infrastructures before the damaging waves arrive. This safety measure even with a few seconds of early warning time will help to mitigate potential damages and secondary hazards.

Nutrition warnings as front-of-pack labels: influence of design features on healthfulness perception and attentional capture.

PubMed

Cabrera, Manuel; Machín, Leandro; Arrúa, Alejandra; Antúnez, Lucía; Curutchet, María Rosa; Giménez, Ana; Ares, Gastón

2017-12-01

Warnings are a new directive front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labelling scheme that highlights products with high content of key nutrients. The design of warnings influences their ability to catch consumers' attention and to clearly communicate their intended meaning, which are key determinants of their effectiveness. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the influence of design features of warnings as a FOP nutrition labelling scheme on perceived healthfulness and attentional capture. Five studies with a total of 496 people were carried out. In the first study, the association of colour and perceived healthfulness was evaluated in an online survey in which participants had to rate their perceived healthfulness of eight colours. In the second study, the influence of colour, shape and textual information on perceived healthfulness was evaluated using choice-conjoint analysis. The third study focused on implicit associations between two design features (shape and colour) on perceived healthfulness. The fourth and fifth studies used visual search to evaluate the influence of colour, size and position of the warnings on attentional capture. Perceived healthfulness was significantly influenced by shape, colour and textual information. Colour was the variable with the largest contribution to perceived healthfulness. Colour, size and position of the warnings on the labels affected attentional capture. Results from the experiments provide recommendations for the design of warnings to identify products with unfavourable nutrient profile.

Development of a real-time bridge structural monitoring and warning system: a case study in Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khemapech, I.; Sansrimahachai, W.; Toachoodee, M.

2017-04-01

Regarded as one of the physical aspects under societal and civil development and evolution, engineering structure is required to support growth of the nation. It also impacts life quality and safety of the civilian. Despite of its own weight (dead load) and live load, structural members are also significantly affected by disaster and environment. Proper inspection and detection are thus crucial both during regular and unsafe events. An Enhanced Structural Health Monitoring System Using Stream Processing and Artificial Neural Network Techniques (SPANNeT) has been developed and is described in this paper. SPANNeT applies wireless sensor network, real-time data stream processing and artificial neural network based upon the measured bending strains. Major contributions include an effective, accurate and energy-aware data communication and damage detection of the engineering structure. Strain thresholds have been defined according to computer simulation results and the AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) LRFD (Load and Resistance Factor Design) Bridge Design specifications for launching several warning levels. SPANNeT has been tested and evaluated by means of computer-based simulation and on-site levels. According to the measurements, the observed maximum values are 25 to 30 microstrains during normal operation. The given protocol provided at least 90% of data communication reliability. SPANNeT is capable of real-time data report, monitoring and warning efficiently conforming to the predefined thresholds which can be adjusted regarding user's requirements and structural engineering characteristics.

Do larger graphic health warnings on standardised cigarette packs increase adolescents’ cognitive processing of consumer health information and beliefs about smoking-related harms?

PubMed Central

White, Victoria; Williams, Tahlia; Faulkner, Agatha; Wakefield, Melanie

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the impact of plain packaging of cigarettes with enhanced graphic health warnings on Australian adolescents’ cognitive processing of warnings and awareness of different health consequences of smoking. Methods Cross-sectional school-based surveys conducted in 2011 (prior to introduction of standardised packaging, n=6338) and 2013 (7–12 months afterwards, n=5915). Students indicated frequency of attending to, reading, thinking or talking about warnings. Students viewed a list of diseases or health effects and were asked to indicate whether each was caused by smoking. Two—‘kidney and bladder cancer’ and ‘damages gums and teeth’—were new while the remainder had been promoted through previous health warnings and/or television campaigns. The 60% of students seeing a cigarette pack in previous 6 months in 2011 and 65% in 2013 form the sample for analysis. Changes in responses over time are examined. Results Awareness that smoking causes bladder cancer increased between 2011 and 2013 (p=0.002). There was high agreement with statements reflecting health effects featured in previous warnings or advertisements with little change over time. Exceptions to this were increases in the proportion agreeing that smoking was a leading cause of death (p<0.001) and causes blindness (p<0.001). The frequency of students reading, attending to, thinking or talking about the health warnings on cigarette packs did not change. Conclusions Acknowledgement of negative health effects of smoking among Australian adolescents remains high. Apart from increased awareness of bladder cancer, new requirements for packaging and health warnings did not increase adolescents’ cognitive processing of warning information. PMID:28407612

Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-01-01

Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

Electric Field Sensor for Lightning Early Warning System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premlet, B.; Mohammed, R.; Sabu, S.; Joby, N. E.

2017-12-01

Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation.A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

Spatio-temporal analysis of brain electrical activity in epilepsy based on cellular nonlinear networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollas, Frank; Tetzlaff, Ronald

2009-05-01

Epilepsy is the most common chronic disorder of the nervous system. Generally, epileptic seizures appear without foregoing sign or warning. The problem of detecting a possible pre-seizure state in epilepsy from EEG signals has been addressed by many authors over the past decades. Different approaches of time series analysis of brain electrical activity already are providing valuable insights into the underlying complex dynamics. But the main goal the identification of an impending epileptic seizure with a sufficient specificity and reliability, has not been achieved up to now. An algorithm for a reliable, automated prediction of epileptic seizures would enable the realization of implantable seizure warning devices, which could provide valuable information to the patient and time/event specific drug delivery or possibly a direct electrical nerve stimulation. Cellular Nonlinear Networks (CNN) are promising candidates for future seizure warning devices. CNN are characterized by local couplings of comparatively simple dynamical systems. With this property these networks are well suited to be realized as highly parallel, analog computer chips. Today available CNN hardware realizations exhibit a processing speed in the range of TeraOps combined with low power consumption. In this contribution new algorithms based on the spatio-temporal dynamics of CNN are considered in order to analyze intracranial EEG signals and thus taking into account mutual dependencies between neighboring regions of the brain. In an identification procedure Reaction-Diffusion CNN (RD-CNN) are determined for short segments of brain electrical activity, by means of a supervised parameter optimization. RD-CNN are deduced from Reaction-Diffusion Systems, which usually are applied to investigate complex phenomena like nonlinear wave propagation or pattern formation. The Local Activity Theory provides a necessary condition for emergent behavior in RD-CNN. In comparison linear spatio-temporal autoregressive filter models are considered, for a prediction of EEG signal values. Thus Signal features values for successive, short, quasi stationary segments of brain electrical activity can be obtained, with the objective of detecting distinct changes prior to impending epileptic seizures. Furthermore long term recordings gained during presurgical diagnostics in temporal lobe epilepsy are analyzed and the predictive performance of the extracted features is evaluated statistically. Therefore a Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis is considered, assessing the distinguishability between distributions of supposed preictal and interictal periods.

Development and implementation of a GEOGLAM Crop Monitor web interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliva, P.; Sanchez, A.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. J.; McGaughey, K.; Barker, B.

2016-12-01

Beginning in September 2013, the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor activity has provided earth observation (EO) data to a network of partners and collected crop assessments on a subnational basis through a web interface known as the Crop Assessment Tool. Based on the collection of monthly crop assessments, a monthly crop condition bulletin is published in the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor report. This workflow has been successfully applied to food security applications through the Early Warning Crop Monitor activity. However, a lack of timely and accurate information on crop conditions and prospects at the national scale is a critical issue in the majority of southern and eastern African countries and some South American countries. Such information is necessary for informed and prompt decision making in the face of emergencies, food insecurity and planning requirements for agricultural markets. This project addresses these needs through the development of relevant, user-friendly remote sensing monitor systems, collaborative internet technology, and collaboration with national and regional agricultural monitoring networks. By building on current projects and relationships established through the various GEOGLAM Crop Monitor activities, this project aims to ultimately provide EO-informed crop condition maps and charts designed for economics and policy oriented audiences, thereby providing quick and easy to understand products on crop conditions as the season progresses. Integrating these data and assessments vertically throughout the system provides a basis for regional sharing and collaboration in food security applications.

Sources of information for tsunami forecasting in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, A.; Ristau, J. P.; D'Anastasio, E.; Wang, X.

2013-12-01

Tsunami science has evolved considerably in the last two decades due to technological advancements which also helped push for better numerical modelling of the tsunami phases (generation to inundation). The deployment of DART buoys has also been a considerable milestone in tsunami forecasting. Tsunami forecasting is one of the parts that tsunami modelling feeds into and is related to response, preparedness and planning. Usually tsunami forecasting refers to short-term forecasting that takes place in real-time after a tsunami has or appears to have been generated. In this report we refer to all types of forecasting (short-term or long-term) related to work in advance of a tsunami impacting a coastline that would help in response, planning or preparedness. We look at the standard types of data (seismic, GPS, water level) that are available in New Zealand for tsunami forecasting, how they are currently being used, other ways to use these data and provide recommendations for better utilisation. The main findings are: -Current investigations of the use of seismic parameters quickly obtained after an earthquake, have potential to provide critical information about the tsunamigenic potential of earthquakes. Further analysis of the most promising methods should be undertaken to determine a path to full implementation. -Network communication of the largest part of the GPS network is not currently at a stage that can provide sufficient data early enough for tsunami warning. It is believed that it has potential, but changes including data transmission improvements may have to happen before real-time processing oriented to tsunami early warning is implemented on the data that is currently provided. -Tide gauge data is currently under-utilised for tsunami forecasting. Spectral analysis, modal analysis based on identified modes and arrival times extracted from the records can be useful in forecasting. -The current study is by no means exhaustive of the ways the different types of data can be used. We are only presenting an overview of what can be done. More extensive studies with each one of the types of data collected by GeoNet and other relevant networks will help improve tsunami forecasting in New Zealand.

Combining Wireless Sensor Networks and Semantic Middleware for an Internet of Things-Based Sportsman/Woman Monitoring Application

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Molina, Jesús; Martínez, José-Fernán; Castillejo, Pedro; López, Lourdes

2013-01-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are spearheading the efforts taken to build and deploy systems aiming to accomplish the ultimate objectives of the Internet of Things. Due to the sensors WSNs nodes are provided with, and to their ubiquity and pervasive capabilities, these networks become extremely suitable for many applications that so-called conventional cabled or wireless networks are unable to handle. One of these still underdeveloped applications is monitoring physical parameters on a person. This is an especially interesting application regarding their age or activity, for any detected hazardous parameter can be notified not only to the monitored person as a warning, but also to any third party that may be helpful under critical circumstances, such as relatives or healthcare centers. We propose a system built to monitor a sportsman/woman during a workout session or performing a sport-related indoor activity. Sensors have been deployed by means of several nodes acting as the nodes of a WSN, along with a semantic middleware development used for hardware complexity abstraction purposes. The data extracted from the environment, combined with the information obtained from the user, will compose the basis of the services that can be obtained. PMID:23385405

Combining wireless sensor networks and semantic middleware for an Internet of Things-based sportsman/woman monitoring application.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Molina, Jesús; Martínez, José-Fernán; Castillejo, Pedro; López, Lourdes

2013-01-31

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are spearheading the efforts taken to build and deploy systems aiming to accomplish the ultimate objectives of the Internet of Things. Due to the sensors WSNs nodes are provided with, and to their ubiquity and pervasive capabilities, these networks become extremely suitable for many applications that so-called conventional cabled or wireless networks are unable to handle. One of these still underdeveloped applications is monitoring physical parameters on a person. This is an especially interesting application regarding their age or activity, for any detected hazardous parameter can be notified not only to the monitored person as a warning, but also to any third party that may be helpful under critical circumstances, such as relatives or healthcare centers. We propose a system built to monitor a sportsman/woman during a workout session or performing a sport-related indoor activity. Sensors have been deployed by means of several nodes acting as the nodes of a WSN, along with a semantic middleware development used for hardware complexity abstraction purposes. The data extracted from the environment, combined with the information obtained from the user, will compose the basis of the services that can be obtained.

Efficient detection of contagious outbreaks in massive metropolitan encounter networks

PubMed Central

Sun, Lijun; Axhausen, Kay W.; Lee, Der-Horng; Cebrian, Manuel

2014-01-01

Physical contact remains difficult to trace in large metropolitan networks, though it is a key vehicle for the transmission of contagious outbreaks. Co-presence encounters during daily transit use provide us with a city-scale time-resolved physical contact network, consisting of 1 billion contacts among 3 million transit users. Here, we study the advantage that knowledge of such co-presence structures may provide for early detection of contagious outbreaks. We first examine the “friend sensor” scheme - a simple, but universal strategy requiring only local information - and demonstrate that it provides significant early detection of simulated outbreaks. Taking advantage of the full network structure, we then identify advanced “global sensor sets”, obtaining substantial early warning times savings over the friends sensor scheme. Individuals with highest number of encounters are the most efficient sensors, with performance comparable to individuals with the highest travel frequency, exploratory behavior and structural centrality. An efficiency balance emerges when testing the dependency on sensor size and evaluating sensor reliability; we find that substantial and reliable lead-time could be attained by monitoring only 0.01% of the population with the highest degree. PMID:24903017

Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

2014-05-01

Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to potentially affected groups, and how mitigation strategies can be taken in response. This paper presents an outline of the protocol that was developed in the DEWFORA project, outlining the complementary roles of science, policy and societal uptake in effective drought forecasting and warning. A consensus on the need to emphasise the social component of early warning was reached when testing the DEWFORA early warning system protocol among experts from 18 countries.

Features of the Asynchronous Correlation between the China Coal Price Index and Coal Mining Accidental Deaths.

PubMed

Huang, Yuecheng; Cheng, Wuyi; Luo, Sida; Luo, Yun; Ma, Chengchen; He, Tailin

2016-01-01

The features of the asynchronous correlation between accident indices and the factors that influence accidents can provide an effective reference for warnings of coal mining accidents. However, what are the features of this correlation? To answer this question, data from the China coal price index and the number of deaths from coal mining accidents were selected as the sample data. The fluctuation modes of the asynchronous correlation between the two data sets were defined according to the asynchronous correlation coefficients, symbolization, and sliding windows. We then built several directed and weighted network models, within which the fluctuation modes and the transformations between modes were represented by nodes and edges. Then, the features of the asynchronous correlation between these two variables could be studied from a perspective of network topology. We found that the correlation between the price index and the accidental deaths was asynchronous and fluctuating. Certain aspects, such as the key fluctuation modes, the subgroups characteristics, the transmission medium, the periodicity and transmission path length in the network, were analyzed by using complex network theory, analytical methods and spectral analysis method. These results provide a scientific reference for generating warnings for coal mining accidents based on economic indices.

Warnings and reactions to the Tohoku tsunami in Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, B. F.; Gregg, C. E.

2012-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami was the first chance within the USA to document and interpret large-scale response and protective action behavior with regard to a large, destructive tsunami since 1964. The 2011 tsunami offered a unique, short-lived opportunity to transform our understanding of individual and collective behavior in the US in response to a well-publicized tsunami warning and, in particular, to look at the complex interplay of official information sources, informal warnings and information-seeking in communities with significant physical impact from the 2011 tsunami. This study is focused in Hawaii, which suffered significant ($30 M), but localized damage, from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and underwent a full-scale tsunami evacuation. The survey contrasts three Hawaiian communities which either experienced significant tsunami damage (Kona) or little physical impact (Hilo, Honolulu). It also contrasts a long-established local community with experience of evacuation, destruction and loss of life in two tsunamis (Hilo) with a metropolitan population with a large visitor presence (Honolulu) that has not experienced a damaging tsunami in decades. Many factors such as personal perceptions of risk, beliefs, past exposure to the hazard, forecast uncertainty, trust in information sources, channels of transmission of information, the need for message confirmation, responsibilities, obligations, mobility, the ability to prepare, the availability of transportation and transport routes, and an acceptable evacuation center affected behavior. We provide new information on how people reacted to warnings and tsunamis, especially with regard to social integration of official warnings and social media. The results of this study will strengthen community resilience to tsunamis, working with emergency managers to integrate strengths and weaknesses of the public responses with official response plans.

NOAA Operational Tsunameter Support for Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchard, R.; Stroker, K.

2008-12-01

In March 2008, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) completed the deployment of the last of the 39-station network of deep-sea tsunameters. As part of NOAA's effort to strengthen tsunami warning capabilities, NDBC expanded the network from 6 to 39 stations and upgraded all stations to the second generation Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis technology (DART II). Consisting of a bottom pressure recorder (BPR) and a surface buoy, the tsunameters deliver water-column heights, estimated from pressure measurements at the sea floor, to Tsunami Warning Centers in less than 3 minutes. This network provides coastal communities in the Pacific, Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico with faster and more accurate tsunami warnings. In addition, both the coarse resolution real-time data and the high resolution (15-second) recorded data provide invaluable contributions to research, such as the detection of the 2004 Sumatran tsunami in the Northeast Pacific (Gower and González, 2006) and the experimental tsunami forecast system (Bernard et al., 2007). NDBC normally recovers the BPRs every 24 months and sends the recovered high resolution data to NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) for archive and distribution. NGDC edits and processes this raw binary format to obtain research-quality data. NGDC provides access to retrospective BPR data from 1986 to the present. The DART database includes pressure and temperature data from the ocean floor, stored in a relational database, enabling data integration with the global tsunami and significant earthquake databases. All data are accessible via the Web as tables, reports, interactive maps, OGC Web Map Services (WMS), and Web Feature Services (WFS) to researchers around the world. References: Gower, J. and F. González, 2006. U.S. Warning System Detected the Sumatra Tsunami, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(10). Bernard, E. N., C. Meinig, and A. Hilton, 2007. Deep Ocean Tsunami Detection: Third Generation DART, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S51C-03.

Evaluation of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road submersion warning tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Sempere-Torres, Daniel

2010-05-01

Important damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions. These are major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods and different kinds of rainfall observations are available in real time: radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts from METEO FRANCE and the CALAMAR system from SPC (state authority in charge of flood forecasting). An application devoted to the road network, has also been recently developed for this region. It combines distributed hydro-meteorological very short range forecasts and vulnerability analysis to provide warnings of road submersions. The first results demonstrate that it is technically possible to provide distributed short-term forecasts for a large number of sites. The study also demonstrates that a reliable estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall is essential. For this reason, the road submersion warning system can be used to evaluate the quality of rainfall estimates and nowcasts. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, more than 300mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Each of the mentioned rainfall datasets (i.e. estimates and nowcasts) was available in real time. They have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. The results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and a reasonable false alarm ratio. It demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall nowcasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding one hour.

[Design and Application of High-risk Pregnancy Monitoring & Warning Internet Platform Based on Internet of Things].

PubMed

Lu, Heqing; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Bin

2017-09-30

Through illustrating the designing of high-risk pregnancy maternal-fetal monitoring system based on the internet of things, this paper introduced the specific application of using wearable medical devices to provide maternal-fetal mobile medical services. With the help of big data and cloud obstetrics platform, the monitoring and warning network was further improved, the level-to-level administration of high-risk pregnancy was realized, the level of perinatal health care was enhanced and the risk of critical emergency of pregnancy decreased.

Smokers’ and E-Cigarette Users’ Perceptions about E-Cigarette Warning Statements

PubMed Central

Wackowski, Olivia A.; Hammond, David; O’Connor, Richard J.; Strasser, Andrew A.; Delnevo, Cristine D.

2016-01-01

Cigarette warning labels are important sources of risk information, but warning research for other tobacco products is limited. This study aimed to gauge perceptions about warnings that may be used for e-cigarettes. We conducted six small focus groups in late 2014/early 2015 with adult current e-cigarette users and cigarette-only smokers. Participants rated and discussed their perceptions of six e-cigarette warning statements, and warnings in two existing Vuse and MarkTen e-cigarette ads. Participants were open to e-cigarette warnings and provided the strongest reactions to statements warning that e-liquid/e-vapor or e-cigarettes can be poisonous, contain toxins, or are “not a safe alternative to smoking”. However, many also noted that these statements were exaggerated, potentially misleading, and could scare smokers away from reducing their harm by switching to e-cigarettes. Opinions on the Food and Drug Administration’s proposed nicotine addiction warning and warnings that e-cigarettes had not been approved for smoking cessation or had unknown health effects were mixed. Participants perceived MarkTen’s advertisement warning to be stronger and more noticeable than Vuse’s. Care should be taken in developing e-cigarette warnings given their relative recentness and potential for harm reduction compared to other tobacco products. Additional research, including with varied audiences, would be instructive. PMID:27376310

Coupling of ground biosensor networks for water monitoring with satellite observations in assessing Leptospirosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skouloudis, A. N.; Rickerby, D. G.

2012-12-01

Leptospirosis became recently a major public-health problem that is closely related with the environment (Nature review Oct 2009, Vol 7, pp 736-747). This disease originates from zoonotic pathogens associated with asymptomatic rodent carriers. Unfortunately, it effects human populations via various direct and indirect routes. This disease can claim many victims with large outbreaks during natural disasters or floods occurring during seasonal conditions. The severity of the illness ranges from subclinical infection to a fulminating fatal disease. Improved water quality monitoring techniques based on biosensor, optical, micro-fluidic and information technologies are leading to radical changes in our ability to perceive and monitor the aquatic environment. Biosensors are capable of providing specific, high spatial resolution information and allow unattended operation that will be particularly useful for water borne related diseases. Current research on biosensors is leading to solutions to problems for several contaminants that were previously irresolvable due to their high degree of complexity. Networking of the sensors enables sensitive monitoring systems allowing real-time monitoring of pollutants and facilitates data transmission between the measurement points and central control stations for continuous surveillance and to provide an early warning capability. The application of intelligent biosensor networks for water quality monitoring and detection of localized sources of pollution are discussed together with the setting up of a methodology that utilizes images from satellite coupled with in-situ sensors for anticipating the zones of potential evolution of this disease and assessing the population at risk. Environmental and climatic conditions that are associated the outbreaks are described and the rational of combining earth observations coupled with advanced in-situ biosensors is explained. The implementation of sensor networks for data collection and exposure mapping is reliant on the identification of location where such networks could be of use. Systematic monitoring from satellite images are utilized for increasing the potential areas of application, for assessing the geographical representativeness on the measurements of the sensors and proposing the methodology on assessing the environmental conditions that are associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. Unfortunately, several combined deployments of earth observations with ground sensors are required before for the understanding of the connections between hydrology and the human health. Ultimately this will lead to the establishment of early warning system that might investigate the effectiveness of key control measures, including vaccine (when they will become available) and affront the water decontamination, and animal control issues.

Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

2015-04-01

We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region, providing specific alert levels for 25 distinct alert zones. In addition, the system can be used to gather, analyze, display, explore, interpret and store rainfall data, thus representing a potential support to both decision makers and scientists.

Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

Treesearch

Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

2016-01-01

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Effects of lead time of verbal collision warning messages on driving behavior in connected vehicle settings.

PubMed

Wan, Jingyan; Wu, Changxu; Zhang, Yiqi

2016-09-01

Under the connected vehicle environment, vehicles will be able to exchange traffic information with roadway infrastructure and other vehicles. With such information, collision warning systems (CWSs) will be able to warn drivers with potentially hazardous situations within or out of sight and reduce collision accidents. The lead time of warning messages is a crucial factor in determining the effectiveness of CWSs in the prevention of traffic accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the effects of lead time on driving behaviors and explore the optimal lead time in various collision scenarios. The present driving simulator experiment studied the effects of controlled lead time at 16 levels (predetermined time headway from the subject vehicle to the collision location when the warning message broadcasted to a driver) on driving behaviors in various collision scenarios. Maximum effectiveness of warning messages was achieved when the controlled lead time was within the range of 5s to 8s. Specifically, the controlled lead time ranging from 4s to 8s led to the optimal safety benefit; and the controlled lead time ranging from 5s to 8s led to more gradual braking and shorter reaction time. Furthermore, a trapezoidal distribution of warning effectiveness was found by building a statistic model using curve estimation considering lead time, lifetime driving experience, and driving speed. The results indicated that the controlled lead time significantly affected driver performance. The findings have implications for the design of collision warning systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A systematic approach to advanced cockpit warning systems for air transport operations: Line pilot preferences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, D. H.; Simpson, C. A.

1976-01-01

Line pilots (fifty captains, first officers, and flight engineers) from 8 different airlines were administered a structured questionnaire relating to future warning system design and solutions to current warning system problems. This was followed by a semantic differential to obtain a factor analysis of 18 different cockpit warning signals on scales such as informative/distracting, annoying/soothing. Half the pilots received a demonstration of the experimental text and voice synthesizer warning systems before answering the questionnaire and the semantic differential. A control group answered the questionnaire and the semantic differential first, thus providing a check for the stability of pilot preferences with and without actual exposure to experimental systems. Generally, the preference data obtained revealed much consistency and strong agreement among line pilots concerning advance cockpit warning system design.

Nutritional information and health warnings on wine labels: Exploring consumer interest and preferences.

PubMed

Annunziata, A; Pomarici, E; Vecchio, R; Mariani, A

2016-11-01

This paper aims to contribute to the current debate on the inclusion of nutritional information and health warnings on wine labels, exploring consumers' interest and preferences. The results of a survey conducted on a sample of Italian wine consumers (N = 300) show the strong interest of respondents in the inclusion of such information on the label. Conjoint analysis reveals that consumers assign greater utility to health warnings, followed by nutritional information. Cluster analysis shows the existence of three different consumer segments. The first cluster, which included mainly female consumers (over 55) and those with high wine involvement, revealed greater awareness of the links between wine and health and better knowledge of wine nutritional properties, preferring a more detailed nutritional label, such as a panel with GDA%. By contrast, the other two clusters, consisting of individuals who generally find it more difficult to understand nutritional labels, preferred the less detailed label of a glass showing calories. The second and largest cluster comprising mainly younger men (under 44), showed the highest interest in health warnings while the third cluster - with a relatively low level of education - preferred the specification of the number of glasses not to exceed. Our results support the idea that the policy maker should consider introducing a mandatory nutritional label in the easier-to-implement and not-too-costly form of a glass with calories, rotating health warnings and the maximum number of glasses not to exceed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyanobacteria Assessment Network (CyAN)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CyAN is a multi-agency project among the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), US Geological Survey (USGS), and EPA to develop an early warning indicator system to detect algal blooms.

Real-time earthquake data feasible

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Susan

Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey : Status Update 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meral Ozel, N.; Necmioglu, O.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kalafat, D.; Yilmazer, M.; Comoglu, M.; Sanli, U.; Gurbuz, C.; Erdik, M.

2012-04-01

This is an update to EGU2011-3094 informing on the progress of the establishment of a National Tsunami Warning Center in Turkey (NTWC-TR) under the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission - Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (IOC-ICG/NEAMTWS) initiative. NTWC-TR is integrated into the 24/7 operational National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC) of KOERI comprising 129 BB and 61 strong motion sensors. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. Data from 3 tide gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping (GCM) is being transmitted to KOERI via satellite connection and the aim is to integrate all tide-gauge stations operated by GCM into NTWC-TR. A collaborative agreement has been signed with the European Commission - Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are linked to SeisComp3 and currently operational. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop an improved database (MOD2), and also continuing work related to the development of its own scenario database using NAMI DANCE Tsunami Simulation and Visualization Software. Further improvement of the Tsunami Warning System at the NTWC-TR will be accomplished through KOERI's participation in the FP-7 Project TRIDEC focusing on new technologies for real-time intelligent earth information management to be used in Tsunami Early Warning Systems. In cooperation with Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), KOERI has its own GTS system now and connected to GTS via its own satellite hub. The system has been successfully utilized during the First Enlarged Communication Test Exercise (NEAMTWS/ECTE1), where KOERI acted as the message provider. KOERI is providing guidance and assistance to a working group established within the DEMP on issues such as Communication and Tsunami Exercises, National Procedures and National Tsunami Response Plan. KOERI is also participating in NEAMTIC (North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Information Centre) Project. Finally, during the 8th Session of NEAMTWS in November 2011, KOERI has announced that NTWC-TR is operational as of January 2012 covering Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black Seas and KOERI is also ready to operate as an Interim Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider.

Development of a smart flood warning system in urban areas: A case study of Huwei area in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Sheng-Chi; Hsu, Hao-Ming; Kao, Hong-Ming

2016-04-01

In this study, we developed a smart flood warning system to clearly understand flood propagations in urban areas. The science and technology park of Huwei, located in the southwest of Taiwan, was selected as a study area. It was designated to be an important urban area of optoelectronics and biotechnology. The region has an area about 1 km2 with approximately 1 km in both length and width. The discrepancy between the highest and lowest elevations is 6.3 m and its elevation decreases along the northeast to the southwest. It is an isolated urban drainage area due to its urban construction plan. The storm sewer system in this region includes three major networks that collect the runoff and drain to the detention pond where is located in the southwest corner of the region. The proposed smart flood warning system combines three important parts, i.e. the physical world, the cyber-physical interface, and the cyber space, to identify how the flood affects urban areas from now until the next three hours. In the physical world, when a rainfall event occurs, monitoring sensors (e.g. rainfall gauges and water level gauges built in the sewer system and ground surface), which are established in several essential locations of the study area, collect in situ hydrological data and then these data being transported to the cyber-physical interface. The cyber-physical interface is a data preprocess space that includes data analysis, quality control and assurance, and data integration and standardization to produce the validated data. In the cyber space, it has missions to receive the validated data from the cyber-physical interface and to run the time machine that has flood analyses of data mining, inundation scenarios simulation, risk and economic assessments, and so on, based on the validated data. After running the time machine, it offers the analyzed results related to flooding planning, mitigation, response, and recovery. According to the analyzed results, the decision supporting system, therefore, can publish warning information in urban areas at the right time. Keywords: flood warning system, flood mitigation, inundation.

In-Vehicle Safety Advisory And Warning System (Ivsaws), Volume I: Executive Summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-03-01

THE INVEHICLE SAFETY ADVISORY AND WARNING SYSTEM (IVSAWS) IS A FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION EFFORT TO DEVELOP A NATIONWIDE VEHICULAR INFORMATION SYSTEM THAT PROVIDES DRIVERS WITH ADVANCE, SUPPLEMENTAL NOTIFICATION OF DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS USING...

Improving tsunami warning systems with remote sensing and geographical information system input.

PubMed

Wang, Jin-Feng; Li, Lian-Fa

2008-12-01

An optimal and integrative tsunami warning system is introduced that takes full advantage of remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) in monitoring, forecasting, detection, loss evaluation, and relief management for tsunamis. Using the primary impact zone in Banda Aceh, Indonesia as the pilot area, we conducted three simulations that showed that while the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami claimed about 300,000 lives because there was no tsunami warning system at all, it is possible that only about 15,000 lives could have been lost if the area had used a tsunami warning system like that currently in use in the Pacific Ocean. The simulations further calculated that the death toll could have been about 3,000 deaths if there had been a disaster system further optimized with full use of remote sensing and GIS, although the number of badly damaged or destroyed houses (29,545) could have likely remained unchanged.

False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

PubMed

Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

2015-01-01

Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Flood warnings in coastal areas: how do social and behavioural patterns influence alert services?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pescaroli, G.; Magni, M.

2015-01-01

Many studies discuss the economic and technical aspects of flood warnings. Less attention has been given to the social and psychological patterns that affect alert services. In particular, the literature focuses on warnings activated in river basins or marine environments without providing clear evidence of relevance to Mediterranean coastal areas, even though these are subjected to growing flood risk related to climate change. This paper is a first attempt to bridge this gap. Our research develops an in- depth analysis of the village of Cesenatico on the Adriatic Sea coast. Here the municipality adopted two complementary warning systems: a siren and an alert via Short Message Service (SMS). The analysis focuses on a survey conducted in 2011 and 2012 with 228 participants. The relationships between social and behavioural variables and warning services are investigated, and so are flood preparedness and information dissemination. Qualitative evidence from informal interviews is used to support the understanding of key responses. The conclusions show how different social and behavioural patterns can influence the effectiveness and use of warning systems, regardless of the technology adopted and the structural mitigation measures implemented. Education, training and accountability are seen to be critical elements for improvement. Finally, the statistical output is used to suggest new questions and new directions for research.

Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

2011-11-01

Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated under the United Nations. This paper reviews historical tsunamis, their warning activities, and their sea level records to highlight lessons learned with the focus on how these insights have helped to drive further development of tsunami warning systems and their tsunami warning centers. While the international systems do well for teletsunamis, faster detection, more accurate evaluations, and widespread timely alerts are still the goals, and challenges still remain to achieving early warning against the more frequent and destructive local tsunamis.

Landslide and Flood Warning System Prototypes based on Wireless Sensor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hloupis, George; Stavrakas, Ilias; Triantis, Dimos

2010-05-01

Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are one of the emerging areas that received great attention during the last few years. This is mainly due to the fact that WSNs have provided scientists with the capability of developing real-time monitoring systems equipped with sensors based on Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS). WSNs have great potential for many applications in environmental monitoring since the sensor nodes that comprised from can host several MEMS sensors (such as temperature, humidity, inertial, pressure, strain-gauge) and transducers (such as position, velocity, acceleration, vibration). The resulting devices are small and inexpensive but with limited memory and computing resources. Each sensor node contains a sensing module which along with an RF transceiver. The communication is broadcast-based since the network topology can change rapidly due to node failures [1]. Sensor nodes can transmit their measurements to central servers through gateway nodes without any processing or they make preliminary calculations locally in order to produce results that will be sent to central servers [2]. Based on the above characteristics, two prototypes using WSNs are presented in this paper: A Landslide detection system and a Flood warning system. Both systems sent their data to central processing server where the core of processing routines exists. Transmission is made using Zigbee and IEEE 802.11b protocol but is capable to use VSAT communication also. Landslide detection system uses structured network topology. Each measuring node comprises of a columnar module that is half buried to the area under investigation. Each sensing module contains a geophone, an inclinometer and a set of strain gauges. Data transmitted to central processing server where possible landslide evolution is monitored. Flood detection system uses unstructured network topology since the failure rate of sensor nodes is expected higher. Each sensing module contains a custom water level sensor (based on plastic optical fiber). Data transmitted directly to server where the early warning algorithms monitor the water level variations in real time. Both sensor nodes use power harvesting techniques in order to extend their battery life as much as possible. [1] Yick J.; Mukherjee, B.; Ghosal, D. Wireless sensor network survey. Comput. Netw. 2008, 52, 2292-2330. [2] Garcia, M.; Bri, D.; Boronat, F.; Lloret, J. A new neighbor selection strategy for group-based wireless sensor networks, In The Fourth International Conference on Networking and Services (ICNS 2008), Gosier, Guadalupe, March 16-21, 2008.

Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.

2018-04-01

With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

Prediction of heart abnormality using MLP network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, Fakroul Ridzuan; Januar, Yulni; Mat, Muhammad Hadzren; Rizman, Zairi Ismael; Awang, Mat Kamil

2018-02-01

Heart abnormality does not choose gender, age and races when it strikes. With no warning signs or symptoms, it can result to a sudden death of the patient. Generally, heart's irregular electrical activity is defined as heart abnormality. Via implementation of Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network, this paper tries to develop a program that allows the detection of heart abnormality activity. Utilizing several training algorithms with Purelin activation function, an amount of heartbeat signals received through the electrocardiogram (ECG) will be employed to condition the MLP network.

Neuronal network model of interictal and recurrent ictal activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, M. A.; Lee, K.-E.; Goltsev, A. V.

2017-12-01

We propose a neuronal network model which undergoes a saddle node on an invariant circle bifurcation as the mechanism of the transition from the interictal to the ictal (seizure) state. In the vicinity of this transition, the model captures important dynamical features of both interictal and ictal states. We study the nature of interictal spikes and early warnings of the transition predicted by this model. We further demonstrate that recurrent seizures emerge due to the interaction between two networks.

Integrated SeismoGeodetic Systsem with High-Resolution, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observation For Earthquake Early Warning Application.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passmore, P. R.; Jackson, M.; Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Davidson, P.

2014-12-01

The key requirements for Earthquake Early Warning and other Rapid Event Notification Systems are: Quick delivery of digital data from a field station to the acquisition and processing center; Data integrity for real-time earthquake notification in order to provide warning prior to significant ground shaking in the given target area. These two requirements are met in the recently developed Trimble SG160-09 SeismoGeodetic System, which integrates both GNSS and acceleration measurements using the Kalman filter algorithm to create a new high-rate (200 sps), real-time displacement with sufficient accuracy and very low latency for rapid delivery of the acquired data to a processing center. The data acquisition algorithm in the SG160-09 System provides output of both acceleration and displacement digital data with 0.2 sec delay. This is a significant reduction in the time interval required for real-time transmission compared to data delivery algorithms available in digitizers currently used in other Earthquake Early Warning networks. Both acceleration and displacement data are recorded and transmitted to the processing site in a specially developed Multiplexed Recording Format (MRF) that minimizes the bandwidth required for real-time data transmission. In addition, a built in algorithm calculates the τc and Pd once the event is declared. The SG160-09 System keeps track of what data has not been acknowledged and re-transmits the data giving priority to current data. Modified REF TEK Protocol Daemon (RTPD) receives the digital data and acknowledges data received without error. It forwards this "good" data to processing clients of various real-time data processing software including Earthworm and SeisComP3. The processing clients cache packets when a data gap occurs due to a dropped packet or network outage. The cache packet time is settable, but should not exceed 0.5 sec in the Earthquake Early Warning network configuration. The rapid data transmission algorithm was tested with different communication media, including Internet, DSL, Wi-Fi, GPRS, etc. The test results show that the data latency via most communication media do not exceed 0.5 sec nominal from a first sample in the data packet. Detailed acquisition algorithm and results of data transmission via different communication media are presented.

Joint NOAA/NWS/USGS prototype debris flow warning system for recently burned areas in Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Restrepo, P.; Jorgensen, D.P.; Cannon, S.H.; Costa, J.; Laber, J.; Major, J.; Martner, B.; Purpura, J.; Werner, K.

2008-01-01

Debris flows, also known as mudslides, are composed gravity-driven mixtures of sediment and water that travel through steep channels, over open hillslopes, and the like. Addressing this issue, US Geological Survey (USGS) and NOAA have established a debris-flow warning system that has the ability to monitor and forecast precipitation and issue timely weather hazard warning. In 2005, this joint NOAA-USGS prototype debris-flow warning system was issued in Southern California and as a result, it has provided valuable information to emergency managers in affected communities.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

2016-10-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

PubMed

Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

2016-10-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

PubMed Central

Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

2016-01-01

Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings. PMID:27843399

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier;

Cyber Signal/Noise Characteristics and Sensor Models for Early Cyber Indications and Warning

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

investigating and simulating attack scenarios. The sensors are, in effect , mathematical functions. These functions range from simple functions of...172 8.1.2 Examine each attack scenario or case to derive the cause- effect network for the attack scenario...threat profiles............................ 174 8.1.4 Develop attack profiles by enlarging the cause- effect network of each attack scenario with

Text and graphic warnings on cigarette packages: findings from the international tobacco control four country study.

PubMed

Hammond, David; Fong, Geoffrey T; Borland, Ron; Cummings, K Michael; McNeill, Ann; Driezen, Pete

2007-03-01

Health warnings on cigarette packages provide smokers with universal access to information on the risks of smoking. However, warnings vary considerably among countries, ranging from graphic depictions of disease on Canadian packages to obscure text warnings in the United States. The current study examined the effectiveness of health warnings on cigarette packages in four countries. Quasi-experimental design. Telephone surveys were conducted with representative cohorts of adult smokers (n=14,975): Canada (n=3687), United States (n=4273), UK (n=3634), and Australia (n=3381). Surveys were conducted between 2002 and 2005, before and at three time points following implementation of new package warnings in the UK. At Wave 1, Canadian smokers reported the highest levels of awareness and impact for health warnings among the four countries, followed by Australian smokers. Following the implementation of new UK warnings at Wave 2, UK smokers reported greater levels of awareness and impact, although Canadian smokers continued to report higher levels of impact after adjusting for the implementation date. U.S. smokers reported the lowest levels of effectiveness for almost every measure recorded at each survey wave. Large, comprehensive warnings on cigarette packages are more likely to be noticed and rated as effective by smokers. Changes in health warnings are also associated with increased effectiveness. Health warnings on U.S. packages, which were last updated in 1984, were associated with the least effectiveness.

Earthquake Early Warning: New Strategies for Seismic Hardware

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allardice, S.; Hill, P.

2017-12-01

Implementing Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) triggering algorithms into seismic networks has been a hot topic of discussion for some years now. With digitizer technology now available, such as the Güralp Minimus, with on average 40-60ms delay time (latency) from earthquake origin to issuing an alert the next step is to provide network operators with a simple interface for on board parameter calculations from a seismic station. A voting mechanism is implemented on board which mitigates the risk of false positives being communicated. Each Minimus can be configured to with a `score' from various sources i.e. Z channel on seismometer, N/S E/W channels on accelerometer and MEMS inside Minimus. If the score exceeds the set threshold then an alert is sent to the `Master Minimus'. The Master Minimus within the network will also be configured as to when the alert should be issued i.e. at least 3 stations must have triggered. Industry standard algorithms focus around the calculation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) and C. Calculating these single station parameters on-board in order to stream only the results could help network operators with possible issues, such as restricted bandwidth. Developments on the Minimus allow these parameters to be calculated and distributed through Common Alert Protocol (CAP). CAP is the XML based data format used for exchanging and describing public warnings and emergencies. Whenever the trigger conditions are met the Minimus can send a signed UDP packet to the configured CAP receiver which can then send the alert via SMS, e-mail or CAP forwarding. Increasing network redundancy is also a consideration when developing these features, therefore the forwarding CAP message can be sent to multiple destinations. This allows for a hierarchical approach by which the single station (or network) parameters can be streamed to another Minimus, or data centre, or both, so that there is no one single point of failure. Developments on the Guralp Minimus to calculate these on board parameters which are capable of streaming single station parameters, accompanied with the ultra-low latency is the next generation of EEWS and Güralps contribution to the community.

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

Implementation of aerial LiDAR technology to update highway feature inventory.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Highway assets, including traffic signs, traffic signals, light poles, and guardrails, are important components of : transportation networks. They guide, warn and protect drivers, and regulate traffic. To manage and maintain the : regular operation o...

Information and communication technology in disease surveillance, India: a case study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

India has made appreciable progress and continues to demonstrate a strong commitment for establishing and operating a disease surveillance programme responsive to the requirements of the International Health Regulations (IHR[2005]). Within five years of its launch, India has effectively used modern information and communication technology for collection, storage, transmission and management of data related to disease surveillance and effective response. Terrestrial and/or satellite based linkages are being established within all states, districts, state-run medical colleges, infectious disease hospitals, and public health laboratories. This network enables speedy data transfer, video conferencing, training and e-learning for outbreaks and programme monitoring. A 24x7 call centre is in operation to receive disease alerts. To complement these efforts, a media scanning and verification cell functions to receive reports of early warning signals. During the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, the usefulness of the information and communication technology (ICT) network was well appreciated. India is using ICT as part of its Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP) to help overcome the challenges in further expansion in hard-to-reach populations, to increase the involvement of the private sector, and to increase the use of other modes of communication like e-mail and voicemail. PMID:21143821

A Real-Time Construction Safety Monitoring System for Hazardous Gas Integrating Wireless Sensor Network and Building Information Modeling Technologies.

PubMed

Cheung, Weng-Fong; Lin, Tzu-Hsuan; Lin, Yu-Cheng

2018-02-02

In recent years, many studies have focused on the application of advanced technology as a way to improve management of construction safety management. A Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), one of the key technologies in Internet of Things (IoT) development, enables objects and devices to sense and communicate environmental conditions; Building Information Modeling (BIM), a revolutionary technology in construction, integrates database and geometry into a digital model which provides a visualized way in all construction lifecycle management. This paper integrates BIM and WSN into a unique system which enables the construction site to visually monitor the safety status via a spatial, colored interface and remove any hazardous gas automatically. Many wireless sensor nodes were placed on an underground construction site and to collect hazardous gas level and environmental condition (temperature and humidity) data, and in any region where an abnormal status is detected, the BIM model will alert the region and an alarm and ventilator on site will start automatically for warning and removing the hazard. The proposed system can greatly enhance the efficiency in construction safety management and provide an important reference information in rescue tasks. Finally, a case study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed system and the practical benefits, limitations, conclusions, and suggestions are summarized for further applications.

A visually guided collision warning system with a neuromorphic architecture.

PubMed

Okuno, Hirotsugu; Yagi, Tetsuya

2008-12-01

We have designed a visually guided collision warning system with a neuromorphic architecture, employing an algorithm inspired by the visual nervous system of locusts. The system was implemented with mixed analog-digital integrated circuits consisting of an analog resistive network and field-programmable gate array (FPGA) circuits. The resistive network processes the interaction between the laterally spreading excitatory and inhibitory signals instantaneously, which is essential for real-time computation of collision avoidance with a low power consumption and a compact hardware. The system responded selectively to approaching objects of simulated movie images at close range. The system was, however, confronted with serious noise problems due to the vibratory ego-motion, when it was installed in a mobile miniature car. To overcome this problem, we developed the algorithm, which is also installable in FPGA circuits, in order for the system to respond robustly during the ego-motion.

Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network.

PubMed

Cordes, Kristina M; Cookson, Susan T; Boyd, Andrew T; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad; Husain, Farah

2017-11-01

Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security.

Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network

PubMed Central

Cordes, Kristina M.; Cookson, Susan T.; Boyd, Andrew T.; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad

2017-01-01

Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security. PMID:29155660

Examining the conspicuousness and prominence of two required warnings on OTC pain relievers

PubMed Central

Bix, Laura; Bello, Nora M.; Auras, Rafael; Ranger, Jon; Lapinski, Maria K.

2009-01-01

The labeling of over-the-counter (OTC) drugs is critical to their safe and effective use, and certain warnings are meant to be read at the point of purchase (POP). Examples include (i) warnings that alert consumers to the fact that the package is not child-resistant and (ii) warnings that alert consumers to potential product tampering. U.S. law mandates these warnings be “conspicuous” and “prominent” so that it is likely that consumers will read them before leaving the store. Our objective was to quantify the relative prominence and conspicuousness of these warnings. Sixty-one participants reviewed the packages of 5 commercially available analgesics to evaluate the prominence and conspicuousness of these warnings. Evaluated data included (i) the time spent examining the warnings compared with other areas of the label (using a bright pupil eye tracker), (ii) the ability to recall information from the OTCs viewed, and (iii) the legibility of the warnings relative to other elements of the labels (as measured by ASTM D7298-06). Eye-tracking data indicated that warnings were viewed by fewer participants and for less time than other elements of the packages. Recall and legibility data also indicated that the warning statements compared unfavorably with other elements of the labels tested. Evidence presented in this study suggests that 2 required warnings on 5 different OTCs are not prominent or conspicuous when compared with other elements of tested labels. PMID:19332798

Pictorial cigarette pack warnings: a meta-analysis of experimental studies

PubMed Central

Noar, Seth M; Hall, Marissa G; Francis, Diane B; Ribisl, Kurt M; Pepper, Jessica K; Brewer, Noel T

2016-01-01

Objective To inform international research and policy, we conducted a meta-analysis of the experimental literature on pictorial cigarette pack warnings. Data sources We systematically searched 7 computerised databases in April 2013 using several search terms. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles. Study selection We included studies that used an experimental protocol to test cigarette pack warnings and reported data on both pictorial and text-only conditions. 37 studies with data on 48 independent samples (N=33 613) met criteria. Data extraction and synthesis Two independent coders coded all study characteristics. Effect sizes were computed from data extracted from study reports and were combined using random effects meta-analytic procedures. Results Pictorial warnings were more effective than text-only warnings for 12 of 17 effectiveness outcomes (all p<0.05). Relative to text-only warnings, pictorial warnings (1) attracted and held attention better; (2) garnered stronger cognitive and emotional reactions; (3) elicited more negative pack attitudes and negative smoking attitudes and (4) more effectively increased intentions to not start smoking and to quit smoking. Participants also perceived pictorial warnings as being more effective than text-only warnings across all 8 perceived effectiveness outcomes. Conclusions The evidence from this international body of literature supports pictorial cigarette pack warnings as more effective than text-only warnings. Gaps in the literature include a lack of assessment of smoking behaviour and a dearth of theory-based research on how warnings exert their effects. PMID:25948713

Self-reported exposure to tobacco warning labels among U.S. middle and high school students.

PubMed

Johnson, Sarah E; Wu, Charles C; Coleman, Blair N; Choiniere, Conrad J

2014-08-01

Warning labels on tobacco products are a means to communicate information about the negative health effects of tobacco use to current and potential users. Most tobacco use begins in early adolescence, making it particularly important to understand the degree to which warning labels reach adolescents. To examine the extent to which youth report (1) seeing the current warnings on cigarettes and smokeless tobacco (SLT) products in the U.S. and (2) that seeing warnings makes them think about the health risks associated with tobacco use. Exposure to warning labels on cigarettes and SLT, as well as the degree to which adolescents report thinking about health risks in response to warnings, was examined among U.S. middle and high school students using data from the 2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) and analyzed in 2013. Current data suggest that less than half of adolescents who saw a cigarette pack (46.9%) or SLT product (40.3%) reported seeing the warning label "most of the time" or "always." Among adolescents who reported seeing a warning, less than one third reported that cigarette (30.4%) or SLT (25.2%) warning labels made them think about health risks "a lot." These rates were even lower among current tobacco users (<14%). Current warning labels for cigarettes and SLT could be improved by implementing warnings that incorporate features that make them salient and more likely to evoke thoughts about health risks. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Response time effects of alerting tone and semantic context for synthesized voice cockpit warnings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

1980-01-01

Some handbooks and human factors design guides have recommended that a voice warning should be preceded by a tone to attract attention to the warning. As far as can be determined from a search of the literature, no experimental evidence supporting this exists. A fixed-base simulator flown by airline pilots was used to test the hypothesis that the total 'system-time' to respond to a synthesized voice cockpit warning would be longer when the message was preceded by a tone because the voice itself was expected to perform both the alerting and the information transfer functions. The simulation included realistic ATC radio voice communications, synthesized engine noise, cockpit conversation, and realistic flight routes. The effect of a tone before a voice warning was to lengthen response time; that is, responses were slower with an alerting tone. Lengthening the voice warning with another work, however, did not increase response time.

Exploring the Role of Social Media and Individual Behaviors in Flood Evacuation Processes: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Erhu; Cai, Ximing; Sun, Zhiyong; Minsker, Barbara

2017-11-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a nonlinear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings, and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

2017-12-01

Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

Evidence-Based Support for the Characteristics of Tsunami Warning Messages for Local, Regional and Distant Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D. M.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

Many studies since 2004 have documented the dissemination and receipt of risk information for local to distant tsunamis and factors influencing people's responses. A few earlier tsunami studies and numerous studies of other hazards provide additional support for developing effective tsunami messages. This study explores evidence-based approaches to developing such messages for the Pacific and National Tsunami Warning Centers in the US. It extends a message metric developed for the NWS Tsunami Program. People at risk to tsunamis receive information from multiple sources through multiple channels. Sources are official and informal and environmental and social cues. Traditionally, official tsunami messages followed a linear dissemination path through relatively few channels from warning center to emergency management to public and media. However, the digital age has brought about a fundamental change in the dissemination and receipt of official and informal communications. Information is now disseminated in very non-linear paths and all end-user groups may receive the same message simultaneously. Research has demonstrated a range of factors that influence rapid respond to an initial real or perceived threat. Immediate response is less common than one involving delayed protective actions where people first engage in "milling behavior" to exchange information and confirm the warning before taking protective action. The most important message factors to achieve rapid response focus on the content and style of the message and the frequency of dissemination. Previously we developed a tsunami message metric consisting of 21 factors divided into message content and style and receiver characteristics. Initially, each factor was equally weighted to identify gaps, but here we extend the work by weighting specific factors. This utilizes recent research that identifies the most important determinants of protective action. We then discuss the prioritization of message information in the context of potentially limited space in evolving tsunami messages issued by the warning centers.

Comprehensive analysis of information dissemination in disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, N.; Huang, H.; Su, Boni

2016-11-01

China is a country that experiences a large number of disasters. The number of deaths caused by large-scale disasters and accidents in past 10 years is around 900,000. More than 92.8 percent of these deaths could be avoided if there were an effective pre-warning system deployed. Knowledge of the information dissemination characteristics of different information media taking into consideration governmental assistance (information published by a government) in disasters in urban areas, plays a critical role in increasing response time and reducing the number of deaths and economic losses. In this paper we have developed a comprehensive information dissemination model to optimize efficiency of pre-warning mechanics. This model also can be used for disseminating information for evacuees making real-time evacuation plans. We analyzed every single information dissemination models for pre-warning in disasters by considering 14 media: short message service (SMS), phone, television, radio, news portals, Wechat, microblogs, email, newspapers, loudspeaker vehicles, loudspeakers, oral communication, and passive information acquisition via visual and auditory senses. Since governmental assistance is very useful in a disaster, we calculated the sensitivity of governmental assistance ratio. The results provide useful references for information dissemination during disasters in urban areas.

Enhanced communication and coordination in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System.

PubMed

Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam; Simon, Katie

2012-03-01

Effective communication and coordination are critical when investigating a possible drinking water contamination incident. A contamination warning system is designed to detect water contamination by initiating a coordinated, effective response to mitigate significant public health and economic consequences. This article describes historical communication barriers during water contamination incidents and discusses how these barriers were overcome through the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System, referred to as the "Cincinnati Pilot." By enhancing partnerships in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Pilot, information silos that existed in each organization were replaced with interagency information depots that facilitated effective decision making.

G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

2016-12-01

The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

Identifying early-warning signals of critical transitions with strong noise by dynamical network markers

PubMed Central

Liu, Rui; Chen, Pei; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Chen, Luonan

2015-01-01

Identifying early-warning signals of a critical transition for a complex system is difficult, especially when the target system is constantly perturbed by big noise, which makes the traditional methods fail due to the strong fluctuations of the observed data. In this work, we show that the critical transition is not traditional state-transition but probability distribution-transition when the noise is not sufficiently small, which, however, is a ubiquitous case in real systems. We present a model-free computational method to detect the warning signals before such transitions. The key idea behind is a strategy: “making big noise smaller” by a distribution-embedding scheme, which transforms the data from the observed state-variables with big noise to their distribution-variables with small noise, and thus makes the traditional criteria effective because of the significantly reduced fluctuations. Specifically, increasing the dimension of the observed data by moment expansion that changes the system from state-dynamics to probability distribution-dynamics, we derive new data in a higher-dimensional space but with much smaller noise. Then, we develop a criterion based on the dynamical network marker (DNM) to signal the impending critical transition using the transformed higher-dimensional data. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in biological, ecological and financial systems. PMID:26647650

Does front-of-pack nutrition information improve consumer ability to make healthful choices? Performance of warnings and the traffic light system in a simulated shopping experiment.

PubMed

Machín, Leandro; Aschemann-Witzel, Jessica; Curutchet, María Rosa; Giménez, Ana; Ares, Gastón

2018-02-01

The inclusion of more attention-grabbing and easily interpretable front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition information is one of the public policies that can be implemented to empower consumers to identify unhealthful food products and to make more informed food choices. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the influence of two FOP nutrition labelling schemes - the traffic light labelling and the warning scheme - on consumer food purchases when facing a health goal. The study was conducted with 1182 people from Montevideo (Uruguay), recruited using a Facebook advertisement. Participants were randomly allocated to one of three between-subjects experimental conditions: (i) a control condition with no FOP nutrition information, (ii) FOP nutrition information using a modified version of the traffic light system including information about calorie, saturated fat, sugars and sodium content per portion, and (iii) FOP nutrition information using the Chilean warning system including separate signs for high calorie, saturated fat, sugars and sodium content. Respondents were asked to imagine that they had to purchase food in order to prepare a healthy dinner for themselves and their family, using the website of an online grocery store. Results showed that FOP nutrition information effectively improved the average healthfulness of participants' choices compared to the control condition, both in terms of the average nutritional composition of the purchased products and expenditure in specific product categories. No relevant differences between the effect of the traffic light and the warning system were found. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of Earthquake Early Warning to Large Municipalities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Featherstone, J.

2013-12-01

The City of Los Angeles has been involved in the testing of the Cal Tech Shake Alert, Earthquake Early Warning (EQEW) system, since February 2012. This system accesses a network of seismic monitors installed throughout California. The system analyzes and processes seismic information, and transmits a warning (audible and visual) when an earthquake occurs. In late 2011, the City of Los Angeles Emergency Management Department (EMD) was approached by Cal Tech regarding EQEW, and immediately recognized the value of the system. Simultaneously, EMD was in the process of finalizing a report by a multi-discipline team that visited Japan in December 2011, which spoke to the effectiveness of EQEW for the March 11, 2011 earthquake that struck that country. Information collected by the team confirmed that the EQEW systems proved to be very effective in alerting the population of the impending earthquake. The EQEW in Japan is also tied to mechanical safeguards, such as the stopping of high-speed trains. For a city the size and complexity of Los Angeles, the implementation of a reliable EQEW system will save lives, reduce loss, ensure effective and rapid emergency response, and will greatly enhance the ability of the region to recovery from a damaging earthquake. The current Shake Alert system is being tested at several governmental organizations and private businesses in the region. EMD, in cooperation with Cal Tech, identified several locations internal to the City where the system would have an immediate benefit. These include the staff offices within EMD, the Los Angeles Police Department's Real Time Analysis and Critical Response Division (24 hour crime center), and the Los Angeles Fire Department's Metropolitan Fire Communications (911 Dispatch). All three of these agencies routinely manage the collaboration and coordination of citywide emergency information and response during times of crisis. Having these three key public safety offices connected and included in the early testing of an EQEW system will help shape the EQEW policy which will determine the seismic safety of millions of Californians in the years to come.

Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

2015-12-01

Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

Prevention of railway trespassing by automatic sound warning-A pilot study.

PubMed

Kallberg, Veli-Pekka; Silla, Anne

2017-04-03

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of a sound warning system on the frequency of trespassing at 2 pilot test sites in Finland. The effect of automatic prerecorded sound warning on the prevention of railway trespassing was evaluated based on observations at 2 test sites in Finland. At both sites an illegal footpath crossed the railway, and the average daily number of trespassers before implementation of the measures was about 18 at both sites. The results showed that trespassing was reduced at these sites by 18 and 44%, respectively. Because of the lack of proper control sites, it is possible that the real effects of the measure are somewhat smaller. The current study concludes that automatic sound warning may be efficient and cost effective at locations where fencing is not a viable option. However, it is not likely to be a cost-effective panacea for all kinds of sites where trespassing occurs, especially in countries like Finland where trespassing is scattered along the railway network rather than concentrated to a limited number of sites.

Trends in antidepressant prescribing to children and adolescents in Canadian primary care: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Morkem, Rachael; Williamson, Tyler; Patten, Scott; Queenan, John A; Wong, Sabrina T; Manca, Donna; Barber, David

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the trends and patterns of antidepressant (AD) prescribing to children and adolescents in Canadian primary care before and after the black-box warning in 2004. Prescription data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network, a repository of primary care data on over 1 million patients, was used to analyze AD prescribing to children (8-11 y) and adolescents (12-18 y) between 2000 and 2014. Interrupted time series analyses were used to assess the impact of the 2004 black-box warning on the prescribing levels of ADs. The 2004 black-box warning had a significant and immediate effect on the prescribing of AD. However, this drop was not sustained, and 5 years after the advisory AD prescribing rates reversed direction and started to rise. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors dominated as the most common AD prescribed throughout the study period, increasing from 66% prior to the black-box warning to 83.12% after 2009. The black-box warning effectively reduced AD prescribing in primary care for approximately 5 years before a reversal back to a positive rate of prescribing. This rebounding could reflect an emerging consensus about the trade-off in risks and benefits. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

GPS-TEC of the Ionospheric Disturbances as a Tool for Early Tsunami Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunitsyn, Viacheslav E.; Nesterov, Ivan A.; Shalimov, Sergey L.; Krysanov, Boris Yu.; Padokhin, Artem M.; Rekenthaler, Douglas

2013-04-01

Recently, the GPS measurements were used for retrieving the information on the various types of ionospheric responses to seismic events (earthquakes, seismic Rayleigh waves, and tsunami) which generate atmospheric waves propagating up to the ionospheric altitudes where the collisions between the neutrals and charge particles give rise to the motion of the ionospheric plasma. These experimental results can well be used in architecture of the future tsunami warning system. The point is an earlier (in comparison with seismological methods) detection of the ionospheric signal that can indicate the moment of tsunami generation. As an example we consider the two-dimensional distributions of the vertical total electron content (TEC) variations in the ionosphere both close to and far from the epicenter of the Japan undersea earthquake of March 11, 2011 using radio tomographic (RT) reconstruction of high-temporal-resolution (2-minute) data from the Japan and the US GPS networks. Near-zone TEC variations shows a diverging ionospheric perturbation with multi-component spectral composition emerging after the main shock. The initial phase of the disturbance can be used as an indicator of the tsunami generation and subsequently for the tsunami early warning. Far-zone TEC variations reveals distinct wave train associated with gravity waves generated by tsunami. According to observations tsunami arrives at Hawaii and further at the coast of Southern California with delay relative to the gravity waves. Therefore the gravity wave pattern can be used in the early tsunami warning. We support this scenario by the results of modeling with the parameters of the ocean surface perturbation corresponding to the considered earthquake. In addition it was observed in the modeling that at long distance from the source the gravity wave can pass ahead of the tsunami. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants 11-05-01157 and 12-05-33065).

Developing an automatic classification system of vegetation anomalies for early warning with the ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meroni, M.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Lemoine, G.

2016-12-01

Anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators relevant to monitor crop and vegetation stress can be accessed online thanks to a rapidly growing number of web based portals. However, timely and systematic global analysis and coherent interpretation of such information, as it is needed for example for SDG 2 related monitoring, remains challenging. With the ASAP system (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) we propose a two-step analysis to provide monthly warning of production deficits in water-limited agriculture worldwide. The first step is fully automated and aims at classifying each administrative unit (1st sub-national level) into a number of possible warning levels, ranging from "none" to "watch" and up to "extended alarm". The second step involves the verification of the automatic warnings and integration into a short national level analysis by agricultural analysts. In this paper we describe the methodological development of the automatic vegetation anomaly classification system. Warnings are triggered only during the crop growing season, defined by a remote sensing based phenology. The classification takes into consideration the fraction of the agricultural and rangelands area for each administrative unit that is affected by a severe anomaly of two rainfall-based indicators (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed at 1 and 3-month scale) and one biophysical indicator (the cumulative NDVI from the start of the growing season). The severity of the warning thus depends on the timing, the nature and the number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. The prototype system is using global NDVI images of the METOP sensor, while a second version is being developed based on 1km Modis NDVI with temporal smoothing and near real time filtering. Also a specific water balance model is under development to include agriculture water stress information in addition to the SPI. The monthly warning classification and crop condition assessment will be made available on a website and will strengthen the JRC support to information products based on consensus assessment such as the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.

A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

2009-12-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common platform to integrate all real-time signals. In the process, strong-motion and broadband signals are used for automatic P-wave arrival time and Pd determination. However, short-period signals are only used for P-wave arrival time picking. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future.

Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.

2017-12-01

The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR component of this virtual network as well as current advances in the imaging of the PR tectonic structure. The goal of this presentation is to describe the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) system, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast earthquake/tsunami messages locally.

SeismoGeodesy: Combination of High Rate, Real-time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations and Rapid Seismic Event Notification for Earth Quake Early Warning and Volcano Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Michael; Zimakov, Leonid; Moessmer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, epoch-by-epoch storage integrity, and on-board real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 Hz) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies, volcano monitoring, and critical infrastructure monitoring applications. Our presentation will focus on the characteristics of GNSS, seismic, and strong motion sensors in high dynamic environments, including historic earthquakes replicated on a shake table over a range of displacements and frequencies. We will explore the optimum integration of these sensors from a filtering perspective including simple harmonic impulses over varying frequencies and amplitudes and under the dynamic conditions of various earthquake scenarios. We will also explore the tradeoffs between various GNSS processing schemes including real-time precise point positioning (PPP) and real-time kinematic (RTK) as applied to seismogeodesy. In addition we will discuss implementation of a Rapid Seismic Event Notification System that provides quick delivery of digital data from seismic stations to the acquisition and processing center and a full data integrity model for real-time earthquake notification that provides warning prior to significant ground shaking.

The role of health consciousness in predicting attention to health warning messages.

PubMed

Kaskutas, L A; Greenfield, T K

1997-01-01

Guided by information processing theory and the health belief model, this paper considers the relationship between health consciousness among the general population and attention to environmental health warnings about alcohol consumption. Mechanisms of exposure to three dominant types of impersonal alcohol-related health messages in the environment are explored. Cross-sectional survey using telephone interview data. A representative nationwide sample of adults was interviewed in 1993 (n = 1026), with a response rate of 63%. Key variables include exposure to warning labels on alcoholic beverages, to point-of-sale posters, and to advertisements in the media, as well as respondents' alcohol consumption, health problems (indicative of salience of health warnings), and level of health consciousness assessed by items tapping concern with nutrition and seeking information on health topics. In the total sample, over a third had seen a warning label or poster and almost all had seen an advertisement about the risks associated with alcohol consumption in 1993. Survey respondents scored very high on five individual items that make up the health consciousness scale introduced here, with 69% endorsing all items. The scale demonstrated good internal reliability (alpha = .70) and was significantly correlated (p < .01) with not enjoying getting drunk and with usually reading product warning labels, suggesting construct validity. Yet the hypothesized strong relationships between health consciousness and attention to health warnings about drinking were not observed; nor was salience of messages a predictor of recall. Importantly, high proportions of underage drinkers and young adults at elevated risk for drinking problems are reached by container warning label messages. Mechanisms of exposure recall vary based on message source, with "container label recall" associated with heavier drinking, younger age, and purchasing patterns; "poster recall" associated with purchasing and health consciousness; and "advertisement recall" associated with heavy consumption and younger age. These results are contrary to predictions from skeptics of broad-based informational interventions, who argue that only the already-health conscious are attentive to health warnings about the risks of alcohol consumption. These data suggest that the label is reaching intended target audiences, especially younger people, males, and heavier alcohol consumers. Future research in predicting attention to impersonal health warnings in the environment should continue to improve the assessment of constructs such as salience and health consciousness, and should further test the applicability of available theoretical models. Subsequent research should also consider additional measures to tap mechanisms of exposure to impersonal health messages to enable a better understanding of the population that is not being reached by such public health interventions.

Effects of wildlife warning reflectors ("deer delineators") on wildlife-vehicle collisions in central Wyoming.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to provide the Wyoming Department of Transportation with information about (1) the : effectiveness of Streiter-Lite wildlife warning reflectors that had been installed in three locations within Wyomings District 5, : ...

Features of the Asynchronous Correlation between the China Coal Price Index and Coal Mining Accidental Deaths

PubMed Central

Huang, Yuecheng; Cheng, Wuyi; Luo, Sida; Luo, Yun; Ma, Chengchen; He, Tailin

2016-01-01

The features of the asynchronous correlation between accident indices and the factors that influence accidents can provide an effective reference for warnings of coal mining accidents. However, what are the features of this correlation? To answer this question, data from the China coal price index and the number of deaths from coal mining accidents were selected as the sample data. The fluctuation modes of the asynchronous correlation between the two data sets were defined according to the asynchronous correlation coefficients, symbolization, and sliding windows. We then built several directed and weighted network models, within which the fluctuation modes and the transformations between modes were represented by nodes and edges. Then, the features of the asynchronous correlation between these two variables could be studied from a perspective of network topology. We found that the correlation between the price index and the accidental deaths was asynchronous and fluctuating. Certain aspects, such as the key fluctuation modes, the subgroups characteristics, the transmission medium, the periodicity and transmission path length in the network, were analyzed by using complex network theory, analytical methods and spectral analysis method. These results provide a scientific reference for generating warnings for coal mining accidents based on economic indices. PMID:27902748

Can mass media influence emergency department visits for stroke?

PubMed

Hodgson, Corinne; Lindsay, Patrice; Rubini, Frank

2007-07-01

Television advertising has been associated with significant increases in the knowledge of the warning signs of stroke among Ontarians aged 45 and older. However, to date there has been little data on the relationship between knowledge of the warning signs of stroke and behavior. Data on presentation to regional and enhanced district stroke center emergency departments were obtained from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network for a 31-month period between mid 2003 and the beginning of 2006. Public opinion polling was used to track knowledge of the warning signs of stroke among Ontarians aged 45 and older. The public's awareness of the warning signs of stroke increased during 2003 to 2005, decreasing in 2006 after a 5-month advertising blackout. There was a significant increase in the mean number of emergency department visits for stroke over the study period. A campaign effect independent of year was observed for total presentations, presentation within 5 hours of last seen normal, and presentation within 2.5 hours. For TIAs there was a strong campaign effect but no change in the number of presentations by year. Continuous advertising may be required to build and sustain public awareness of the warning signs of stroke. There are many factors that may influence presentation for stroke and awareness of the warning signs may be only one. However, results of this study suggest there may be an important correlation between the advertising and emergency department presentations with stroke, particularly for TIAs.

Italian codified hashtags for weather warning on Twitter - who is really using them?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso; Morabito, Marco; Nesi, Paolo; Pantaleo, Gianni; Zaza, Imad; Gozzini, Bernardo

2017-04-01

During emergencies, an increasing number of messages are shared through social media platforms, becoming a primary source of information for lay people and emergency managers. Weather services and institutions have started to employ social media to deliver weather warnings even if sometimes this communication lacks in strategy. In Twitter, for example, hashtagging is very important to associate messages with certain topics; in recent years, codified hashtagging is emerging as a practical way to coordinate Twitter conversations during emergencies and quickly retrieve relevant information. In 2014, a syntax for codified hashtags for weather warning was proposed in Italy: a list of 20 hashtags, realized by combining #allertameteo (weather warning) + XXX, where final letters code the regional identification. This contribution presents a monitoring of Twitter usage of weather warning codified hashtags in Italy (since July 2015) and an analysis of different contexts. Twitter messages were retrieved using TwitterVigilance, a multi-users platform to crawl Twitter data, collect and store messages and perform quantitative analytics, about users, hashtags, tweets/retweets volumes. The Codified Hashtags data set is presented and discussed with main analytics and evaluation of regional contexts where it was successfully employed.

Smokers' responses toward cigarette pack warning labels in predicting quit intention, stage of change, and self-efficacy.

PubMed

Fathelrahman, Ahmed I; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Borland, Ron; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David; Zain, Zarihah

2009-03-01

This paper is concerned with the effects of cigarette pack warning labels on quitting intentions. We examined whether different responses among smokers toward cigarette pack warning labels could predict quit intentions and self-efficacy in quitting. Variables studied were "noticing warning labels during last month," "reading or looking closely at warning labels," "avoiding looking at labels during last month," "thinking about health risks of smoking because of the warning labels, "more likely to quit because of the warning labels," and "stopping from having a cigarette when about to smoke one because of the labels." A total of 2,006 adult smokers in Malaysia were surveyed in face-to-face interviews using a standardized questionnaire. Of those, 1,919 male smokers were included in the analyses. The responses "more likely to quit because of the warning labels" and "stopped from having a cigarette when about to smoke one" significantly predicted all stages of change and self-efficacy, independent of the other measures. In addition, thinking about the health risks and reading the warnings more often added extra predictive capacity but only in the early stages of contemplating change. Less intense processing of the information may be important in initiating thoughts, but cognitions about quitting and foregoing cigarettes are the key mechanisms by which warnings stimulate quitting intentions and help smokers feel capable of succeeding. Malaysian smokers appear to respond to warnings in ways comparable with those from developed countries.

Avoidance of Cigarette Pack Health Warnings among Regular Cigarette Smokers

PubMed Central

Maynard, Olivia M.; Attwood, Angela; O’Brien, Laura; Brooks, Sabrina; Hedge, Craig; Leonards, Ute; Munafò, Marcus R.

2016-01-01

Background Previous research with adults and adolescents indicates that plain cigarette packs increase visual attention to health warnings among non-smokers and non-regular smokers, but not among regular smokers. This may be because regular smokers: 1) are familiar with the health warnings, 2) preferentially attend to branding, or 3) actively avoid health warnings. We sought to distinguish between these explanations using eye-tracking technology. Method A convenience sample of 30 adult dependant smokers were recruited to participate in an eye-tracking study. Participants viewed branded, plain and blank packs of cigarettes with familiar and unfamiliar health warnings. The number of fixations to health warnings and branding on the different pack types were recorded. Results Analysis of variance indicated that regular smokers were biased towards fixating the branding location rather than the health warning location on all three pack types (p < 0.002). This bias was smaller, but still evident, for blank packs, where smokers preferentially attended the blank region over the health warnings. Time-course analysis showed that for branded and plain packs, attention was preferentially directed to the branding location for the entire 10 seconds of the stimulus presentation, while for blank packs this occurred for the last 8 seconds of the stimulus presentation. Familiarity with health warnings had no effect on eye gaze location. Conclusion Smokers actively avoid cigarette pack health warnings, and this remains the case even in the absence of salient branding information. Smokers may have learned to divert their attention away from cigarette pack health warnings. These findings have policy implications for the design of health warning on cigarette packs. PMID:24485554

Pictorial cigarette pack warnings: a meta-analysis of experimental studies.

PubMed

Noar, Seth M; Hall, Marissa G; Francis, Diane B; Ribisl, Kurt M; Pepper, Jessica K; Brewer, Noel T

2016-05-01

To inform international research and policy, we conducted a meta-analysis of the experimental literature on pictorial cigarette pack warnings. We systematically searched 7 computerised databases in April 2013 using several search terms. We also searched reference lists of relevant articles. We included studies that used an experimental protocol to test cigarette pack warnings and reported data on both pictorial and text-only conditions. 37 studies with data on 48 independent samples (N=33,613) met criteria. Two independent coders coded all study characteristics. Effect sizes were computed from data extracted from study reports and were combined using random effects meta-analytic procedures. Pictorial warnings were more effective than text-only warnings for 12 of 17 effectiveness outcomes (all p<0.05). Relative to text-only warnings, pictorial warnings (1) attracted and held attention better; (2) garnered stronger cognitive and emotional reactions; (3) elicited more negative pack attitudes and negative smoking attitudes and (4) more effectively increased intentions to not start smoking and to quit smoking. Participants also perceived pictorial warnings as being more effective than text-only warnings across all 8 perceived effectiveness outcomes. The evidence from this international body of literature supports pictorial cigarette pack warnings as more effective than text-only warnings. Gaps in the literature include a lack of assessment of smoking behaviour and a dearth of theory-based research on how warnings exert their effects. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Do consumers 'Get the facts'? A survey of alcohol warning label recognition in Australia.

PubMed

Coomber, Kerri; Martino, Florentine; Barbour, I Robert; Mayshak, Richelle; Miller, Peter G

2015-08-22

There is limited research on awareness of alcohol warning labels and their effects. The current study examined the awareness of the Australian voluntary warning labels, the 'Get the facts' logo (a component of current warning labels) that directs consumers to an industry-designed informational website, and whether alcohol consumers visited this website. Participants aged 18-45 (unweighted n = 561; mean age = 33.6 years) completed an online survey assessing alcohol consumption patterns, awareness of the 'Get the facts' logo and warning labels, and use of the website. No participants recalled the 'Get the facts' logo, and the recall rate of warning labels was 16% at best. A quarter of participants recognised the 'Get the facts' logo, and awareness of the warning labels ranged from 13.1-37.9%. Overall, only 7.3% of respondents had visited the website. Multivariable logistic regression models indicated that younger drinkers, increased frequency of binge drinking, consuming alcohol directly from the bottle or can, and support for warning labels were significantly, positively associated with awareness of the logo and warning labels. While an increased frequency of binge drinking, consuming alcohol directly from the container, support for warning labels, and recognition of the 'Get the facts' logo increased the odds of visiting the website. Within this sample, recall of the current, voluntary warning labels on Australian alcohol products was non-existent, overall awareness was low, and few people reported visiting the DrinkWise website. It appears that current warning labels fail to effectively transmit health messages to the general public.

Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

PubMed

Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

2018-04-01

Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

2016-01-01

Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

PubMed

Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

2017-04-01

Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Alcohol Warnings and Moderate Drinking Patterns among Italian University Students: An Exploratory Study

PubMed Central

Annunziata, Azzurra; Vecchio, Riccardo; Mariani, Angela

2017-01-01

The introduction of health warnings on labels to correct externalities associated with alcohol consumption is heavily debated and has been explored from different perspectives. The current paper aims to analyse the interest and attitudes of Italian university students regarding health warnings on alcoholic beverages and to verify the existence of segments that differ in terms of attitudes towards such warnings. Our results show that young consumers consider health warnings quite important, although the degree of perceived utility differs in relation to the type of warning. Cluster analysis shows the existence of three groups of young consumers with different degrees of attention and perceived utility of warnings on alcoholic beverages, but also in relation to drinking behaviour and awareness of social and health risks related to alcohol consumption. In brief, Italian young adults with moderate consumption behaviour view label warnings positively, while this attitude is weaker among younger adults and those with riskier consumption behaviours. Our findings, albeit limited and based on stated and not revealed data, support the need for appropriate tools to improve the availability of information among young adults on the risks of excessive alcohol consumption and increased awareness of the importance of moderate drinking. PMID:28629138

Eye Tracking Outcomes in Tobacco Control Regulation and Communication: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Meernik, Clare; Jarman, Kristen; Wright, Sarah Towner; Klein, Elizabeth G; Goldstein, Adam O; Ranney, Leah

2016-10-01

In this paper we synthesize the evidence from eye tracking research in tobacco control to inform tobacco regulatory strategies and tobacco communication campaigns. We systematically searched 11 databases for studies that reported eye tracking outcomes in regards to tobacco regulation and communication. Two coders independently reviewed studies for inclusion and abstracted study characteristics and findings. Eighteen studies met full criteria for inclusion. Eye tracking studies on health warnings consistently showed these warnings often were ignored, though eye tracking demonstrated that novel warnings, graphic warnings, and plain packaging can increase attention toward warnings. Eye tracking also revealed that greater visual attention to warnings on advertisements and packages consistently was associated with cognitive processing as measured by warning recall. Eye tracking is a valid indicator of attention, cognitive processing, and memory. The use of this technology in tobacco control research complements existing methods in tobacco regulatory and communication science; it also can be used to examine the effects of health warnings and other tobacco product communications on consumer behavior in experimental settings prior to the implementation of novel health communication policies. However, the utility of eye tracking will be enhanced by the standardization of methodology and reporting metrics.

Eye Tracking Outcomes in Tobacco Control Regulation and Communication: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Meernik, Clare; Jarman, Kristen; Wright, Sarah Towner; Klein, Elizabeth G.; Goldstein, Adam O.; Ranney, Leah

2016-01-01

Objective In this paper we synthesize the evidence from eye tracking research in tobacco control to inform tobacco regulatory strategies and tobacco communication campaigns. Methods We systematically searched 11 databases for studies that reported eye tracking outcomes in regards to tobacco regulation and communication. Two coders independently reviewed studies for inclusion and abstracted study characteristics and findings. Results Eighteen studies met full criteria for inclusion. Eye tracking studies on health warnings consistently showed these warnings often were ignored, though eye tracking demonstrated that novel warnings, graphic warnings, and plain packaging can increase attention toward warnings. Eye tracking also revealed that greater visual attention to warnings on advertisements and packages consistently was associated with cognitive processing as measured by warning recall. Conclusions Eye tracking is a valid indicator of attention, cognitive processing, and memory. The use of this technology in tobacco control research complements existing methods in tobacco regulatory and communication science; it also can be used to examine the effects of health warnings and other tobacco product communications on consumer behavior in experimental settings prior to the implementation of novel health communication policies. However, the utility of eye tracking will be enhanced by the standardization of methodology and reporting metrics. PMID:27668270

Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Horiuchi, Shigeki; Wu, Changjiang; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Rydelek, Paul A.

2009-01-01

The real-time earthquake information system (REIS) of the Japanese seismic network is developed for automatically determining earthquake parameters within a few seconds after the P-waves arrive at the closest stations using both the P-wave arrival times and the timing data that P-waves have not yet arrived at other stations. REIS results play a fundamental role in the real-time information for earthquake early warning in Japan. We show the rapidity and accuracy of REIS from the analysis of 4,050 earthquakes in three years since 2005; 44 percent of the first reports are issued within 5 seconds after the first P-wave arrival and 80 percent of the events have a difference in epicenter distance less than 20 km relative to manually determined locations. We compared the formal catalog to the estimated magnitude from the real-time analysis and found that 94 percent of the events had a magnitude difference of +/-1.0 unit.

Application of Virtual Rain and Stream Gauge Information Service for Improved Flood Early Warning System in Lower Mekong Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basnayake, S. B.; Jayasinghe, S.; Meechaiya, C.; Markert, K. N.; Lee, H.; Towashiraporn, P.; Anderson, E.; Okeowo, M. A.

2017-12-01

Asia is the most vulnerable region in the world to hydro-meteorological extreme events, exacerbated by climate variability and change. Impacts of floods have been on the rapid increase in the recent decades. Myanmar is one of the most vulnerable countries in the lower Mekong region due to its socioeconomic situation (eg; Nargis in 2008, monsoon floods in 2015, etc). Early warning is an effective way to prepare for hydro-meteorological hazards, to minimize disaster risks; however, early warning systems in Myanmar are seriously hampered by limited observation networks. The Virtual Rain and Stream Gauge Information Service (VRSGIS) has been developed by SERVIR-Mekong program of Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) to address these gaps and to provide dense, satellite-based rainfall and water level data, which are calibrated and validated with available in-situ observations. This service would enhance decision making in lower Mekong countries, including Myanmar, to minimize impacts of impending disasters. This service contains rainfall data from GPM IMERG and GSMap, CMORPH, TRMM, and CHIRPS, and water levels for 15 locations using Jason-2/3 altimetry. The virtual daily rainfall data sets are being calibrated with Gamma distribution method and are made publicly accessible through a user-friendly web interface.This paper presents a case study of satellite-derived rainfall data accessed from VRSGIS for hydrological modeling in Myanmar, to estimate inundation areas in Kalay township area of Chindwin River basin during the country's worst flood in 2015. Twelve out of fourteen States of Myanmar were severely affected, 103 people were killed, and one million were displaced due to heavy rains associated with Komen cyclone. The aforementioned rainfall data products are used as inputs for HEC-HMS hydrological runoff model to calculate river flows along Chindwin River, and HEC-RAS hydraulic model is used to estimate inundation areas in downstream including Kalay township area. Model results (inundations) are compared with the estimates of water levels of Jason 2/3 measurements from two locations along the river. The results encourage us to use satellite-derived rainfall data over upstream areas to improve flood modeling, which contributes to improved flood early warning in Myanmar and other lower Mekong countries.

Radar-driven High-resolution Hydrometeorological Forecasts of the 26 September 2007 Venice flash flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massimo Rossa, Andrea; Laudanna Del Guerra, Franco; Borga, Marco; Zanon, Francesco; Settin, Tommaso; Leuenberger, Daniel

2010-05-01

Space and time scales of flash floods are such that flash flood forecasting and warning systems depend upon the accurate real-time provision of rainfall information, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and the use of hydrological models. Currently available high-resolution NWP model models can potentially provide warning forecasters information on the future evolution of storms and their internal structure, thereby increasing convective-scale warning lead times. However, it is essential that the model be started with a very accurate representation of on-going convection, which calls for assimilation of high-resolution rainfall data. This study aims to assess the feasibility of using carefully checked radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for assimilation into NWP and hydrological models. The hydrometeorological modeling chain includes the convection-permitting NWP model COSMO-2 and a hydrologic-hydraulic models built upon the concept of geomorphological transport. Radar rainfall observations are assimilated into the NWP model via the latent heat nudging method. The study is focused on 26 September 2007 extreme flash flood event which impacted the coastal area of north-eastern Italy around Venice. The hydro-meteorological modeling system is implemented over the Dese river, a 90 km2 catchment flowing to the Venice lagoon. The radar rainfall observations are carefully checked for artifacts, including beam attenuation, by means of physics-based correction procedures and comparison with a dense network of raingauges. The impact of the radar QPE in the assimilation cycle of the NWP model is very significant, in that the main individual organized convective systems were successfully introduced into the model state, both in terms of timing and localization. Also, incorrectly localized precipitation in the model reference run without rainfall assimilation was correctly reduced to about the observed levels. On the other hand, the highest rainfall intensities were underestimated by 20% at a scale of 1000 km2, and the local peaks by 50%. The positive impact of the assimilated radar rainfall was carried over into the free forecast for about 2-5 hours, depending on when this forecast was started, and was larger, when the main mesoscale convective system was present in the initial conditions. The improvements of the meteorological model simulations were directly propagated to the river flow simulations, with an extension of the warning lead time up to three hours.

An Assessment of Capacity, Gaps and Opportunities toward Building a Global Early Warning System for Flood Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Y.; Adler, R.; Huffman, G.

2007-12-01

Many governmental emergency management agencies or non-governmental organizations need real-time information on emerging disasters for preparedness and response. However, progress in warnings for hydrologic disasters has been constrained by the difficulty of measuring spatiotemporal variability of rainfall fluxes continuously over space and time, due largely to insufficient ground monitoring networks, long delay in data transmission and absence of data sharing protocols among many geopolitically trans-boundary basins. In addition, in-situ gauging stations are often washed away by the very floods they are designed to monitor, making reconstruction of gauges a common post-flood activity around the world. In reality, remote sensing precipitation estimates may be the only source of rainfall information available over much of the globe, particularly for vulnerable countries in the tropics where abundant extreme rain storms and severe flooding events repeat every year. Building on progress in remote sensing technology, researchers have improved the accuracy, coverage, and resolution of rainfall estimates by combining imagery from infrared, passive microwave, and weather radar sensors. Today, remote sensing imagery acquired and processed in real time can provide near-real-time rainfall fluxes at relatively fine spatiotemporal scales (kilometers to tens of kilometers and 30-minute to 3-hour). These new suites of rainfall products have the potential to support daily decision-making in analysis of hydrologic hazards. This talk will address several key issues, including remote sensing rainfall retrieval and data assimilation, for hydrologists to develop alternative satellite-based flood warning systems that may supplement in-situ infrastructure when conventional data sources are denied due to natural or administrative causes. This talk will also assess a module-structure global flood prediction system that has been running at real-time by integrating remote sensing forcing data with simplified hydrological models, in an effort to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building cost-effective flood warning systems for the data-spares regions of the world. The real-time outlook of hazardous floods will quickly disseminate through an open-access web-interface to many agencies and organizations for their daily decision-making, with the potential to save human life and reduce economic impacts. The interactive Web interface will also show close-up maps of the disaster risks overlaid on population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool.

Reactions of Chinese adults to warning labels on cigarette packages: A survey in Jiangsu Province

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background To compare reactions to warning labels presented on cigarette packages with a specific focus on whether the new Chinese warning labels are better than the old labels and international labels. Methods Participants aged 18 and over were recruited in two cities of Jiangsu Province in 2008, and 876 face-to-face interviews were completed. Participants were shown six types of warning labels found on cigarette packages. They comprised one old Chinese label, one new label used within the Chinese market, and one Chinese overseas label and three foreign brand labels. Participants were asked about the impact of the warning labels on: their knowledge of harm from smoking, giving cigarettes as a gift, and quitting smoking. Results Compared with the old Chinese label, a higher proportion of participants said the new label provided clear information on harm caused by smoking (31.2% vs 18.3%). Participants were less likely to give cigarettes with the new label on the package compared with the old label (25.2% vs 20.8%). These proportions were higher when compared to the international labels. Overall, 26.8% of participants would quit smoking based on information from the old label and 31.5% from the new label. When comparing the Chinese overseas label and other foreign labels to the new Chinese label with regard to providing knowledge of harm warning, impact of quitting smoking and giving cigarettes as a gift, the overseas labels were more effective. Conclusion Both the old and the new Chinese warning label are not effective in this target population. PMID:21349205

Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-12-01

With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

Emotional reaction facilitates the brain and behavioral impact of graphic cigarette warning labels in smokers

PubMed Central

Wang, An-Li; Lowen, Steven B; Romer, Daniel; Giorno, Mario; Langleben, Daniel D

2015-01-01

Background Warning labels on cigarette packages are an important venue for information about the hazards of smoking. The 2009 US Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act mandated replacing the current text-only labels with graphic warning labels. However, labels proposed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) were challenged in court by the tobacco companies, who argued successfully that the proposed labels needlessly encroached on their right to free speech, in part because they included images of high emotional salience that indiscriminately frightened rather than informed consumers. Methods We used functional MRI to examine the effects of graphic warning labels' emotional salience on smokers' brain activity and cognition. Twenty-four smokers viewed a random sequence of blocks of graphic warning labels that have been rated high or low on an ‘emotional reaction’ scale in previous research. Results We found that labels rated high on emotional reaction were better remembered, associated with reduction in the urge to smoke, and produced greater brain response in the amygdala, hippocampi, inferior frontal gyri and the insulae. Conclusions Recognition memory and craving are, respectively, correlates of effectiveness of addiction related public health communications and interventions, and amygdala activation facilitates the encoding of emotional memories. Thus, our results suggest that emotional reaction to graphic warning labels contributes to their public health impact and may be an integral part of the neural mechanisms underlying their effectiveness. Given the urgency of the debate about the constitutional risks and public health benefits of graphic warning labels, these preliminary findings warrant consideration while longitudinal clinical studies are underway PMID:25564288

Application of Information Technology Solution for Early Warning Systems at Water Utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bałut, Alicja

2018-02-01

Deployment of IT solutions in water utilities in Poland concerns nowadays lots beyond GIS implementation projects [1]. The scope of modern IT platforms is truly advanced software for complete management of water treatment processes and involved objects, including ranges of various types of equipment. There are multiply factors that disrupt required volumes of supplied water. They are normally classified as natural, accidental and intentional. This paper addresses potential residing in already deployed IT solutions of water utilities in and also in new ones being now developed. Primarily- from the perspective of intentional, terrorist threats. This document depicts operating procedures that are called in case of spotted contamination in a water supply (damage of key elements of the network infrastructure) or in case of an introduction factors. This paper also discusses relevant IT tools with access provided to network operators or water plant owners that are extremely useful in accurate pinpointing the treat and in following relevant operating procedures and related actions.

Segmentation and classification of road markings using MLS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soilán, Mario; Riveiro, Belén; Martínez-Sánchez, Joaquín; Arias, Pedro

2017-01-01

Traffic signs are one of the most important safety elements in a road network. Particularly, road markings provide information about the limits and direction of each road lane, or warn the drivers about potential danger. The optimal condition of road markings contributes to a better road safety. Mobile Laser Scanning technology can be used for infrastructure inspection and specifically for traffic sign detection and inventory. This paper presents a methodology for the detection and semantic characterization of the most common road markings, namely pedestrian crossings and arrows. The 3D point cloud data acquired by a LYNX Mobile Mapper system is filtered in order to isolate reflective points in the road, and each single element is hierarchically classified using Neural Networks. State of the art results are obtained for the extraction and classification of the markings, with F-scores of 94% and 96% respectively. Finally, data from classified markings are exported to a GIS layer and maintenance criteria based on the aforementioned data are proposed.

Floods in 2002 and 2013: comparing flood warnings and emergency measures from the perspective of affected parties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Pech, Ina; Schröter, Kai; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

2016-04-01

Early warning is essential for protecting people and mitigating damage in case of flood events. However, early warning is only helpful if the flood-endangered parties are reached by the warning and if they know how to react effectively. Finding suitable methods for communicating helpful warnings to the "last mile" remains a challenge, but not much information is available. Surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany, asking affected private households and companies about warnings they received and emergency measures they undertook. Results show, that in 2002 early warning did not work well: in too many areas warnings came too late or were too imprecise and many people (27%) and companies (45%) did not receive a flood warning. Afterwards, the warning systems were significantly improved, so that in 2013 only a small share of the affected people (7%) and companies (7 %) was not reached by any warning. Additionally, private households and companies were hardly aware of the flood risk in the Elbe catchment before 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. For instance, in 2002 only 14% of private households clearly knew how to protect themselves and their assets when the warning reached them, in 2013 this fraction was 46 %. Although the share of companies which had an emergency plan in place had increased from 10 % in 2002 to 26 % in 2013, and the share of those conducting regular emergency exercises had increased from 4 % to 13 %, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Therefore, integrated early warning systems from monitoring through to the reaction of the affected parties as well as effective risk and emergency communication need continuous further improvement to protect people and mitigate residual risks in case of floods.

Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

2015-04-01

In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to educate school children and disseminate warning information will assist the government authorities to reduce landslide casualty by disseminating prompt slope failure warning and improving the community's awareness of disaster prevention.

Development and Application of a Message Metric for NOAA NWS Tsunami Warnings and Recommended Guidelines for the NWS TsunamiReady Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D. M.; Ricthie, L.; Meinhold, S.; Johnson, V.; Scott, C.; Farnham, C.; Houghton, B. F.; Horan, J.; Gill, D.

2012-12-01

Improving the quality and effectiveness of tsunami warning messages and the TsunamiReady community preparedness program of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service's (NWS), Tsunami Program are two key objectives of a three year project (Award NA10NWS4670015) to help integrate social science into the NWS' Tsunami Program and improve the preparedness of member states and territories of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). Research was conducted in collaboration with state and local emergency managers. Based on findings from focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa), and upon review of research literature on behavioral response to warnings, we developed a warning message metric to help guide revisions to tsunami warning messages issued by the NWS' West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, Alaska and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, Hawaii. The metric incorporates factors that predict response to warning information, which are divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the meaning of metric factors and assigning a maximum score of one point per factor. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. From focus groups that gathered information on the usefulness and achievability of tsunami preparedness actions, we developed recommendations for revisions to the proposed draft guidelines of the TsunamiReady Improvement Program. Proposed key revisions include the incorporation of community vulnerability to distant (far-field) versus local (near-field) tsunamis as a primary determinant of mandatory actions, rather than community population. Our team continues to work with NWS personnel, including a NWS Tsunami Warning Improvement Team, and the focus group participants to finalize and pilot test prototype warning products and the draft TsunamiReady guidelines.

Design and Implementation of a C++ Software Package to scan for and parse Tsunami Messages issued by the Tsunami Warning Centers for Operational use at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardina, V.

2012-12-01

The US Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) have traditionally generated their tsunami message products primarily as blocks of text then tagged with headers that identify them on each particular communications' (comms) circuit. Each warning center has a primary area of responsibility (AOR) within which it has an authoritative role regarding parameters such as earthquake location and magnitude. This means that when a major tsunamigenic event occurs the other warning centers need to quickly access the earthquake parameters issued by the authoritative warning center before issuing their message products intended for customers in their own AOR. Thus, within the operational context of the TWCs the scientists on duty have an operational need to access the information contained in the message products issued by other warning centers as quickly as possible. As a solution to this operational problem we designed and implemented a C++ software package that allows scanning for and parsing the entire suite of tsunami message products issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). The scanning and parsing classes composing the resulting C++ software package allow parsing both non-official message products(observatory messages) routinely issued by the TWCs, and all official tsunami message products such as tsunami advisories, watches, and warnings. This software package currently allows scientists on duty at the PTWC to automatically retrieve the parameters contained in tsunami messages issued by WCATWC, JMA, or PTWC itself. Extension of the capabilities of the classes composing the software package would make it possible to generate XML and CAP compliant versions of the TWCs' message products until new messaging software natively adds this capabilities. Customers who receive the TWCs' tsunami message products could also use the package to automatically retrieve information from messages sent via any text-based communications' circuit currently used by the TWCs to disseminate their tsunami message products.

A Hole in the Weather Warning System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Vincent T.; Weisman, Robert A.

2003-02-01

lack of text information. These problems had forced deaf and hard of hearing people to rely on looking at the sky or having hearing people alert them as their primary methods of receiving emergency information. These problems are documented through the use of a survey of 277 deaf and hard of hearing people in Minnesota and Oklahoma as well as specific examples.During the last two years, some progress has been made to "close this hole" in the weather warning system. The Federal Communications Commission has approved new rules, requiring that all audio emergency information provided by television stations, satellite, and cable operators must also be provided visually. In addition, the use of new technology such as pager systems, weather radios adapted for use by those with special needs, the Internet, and satellite warning systems have allowed deaf and hard of hearing people to have more access to emergency information.In this article, these improvements are documented but continuing problems and possible solutions are also listed.

DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

2010-05-01

The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the system and to extend the CCUI with hazard specific functionality. The presentation covers the DEWS project, the system architecture and the CCUI in conjunction with details of information logistics. The DEWS Wide Area Centre connecting national centres to allow the international communication and warning exchange is presented also. REFERENCES: [1] DEWS, www.dews-online.org [2] OGC, www.opengeospatial.org [3] SWE, www.opengeospatial.org/projects/groups/sensorweb [4] Eclipse RCP, www.eclipse.org/home/categories/rcp.php [5] uDig, udig.refractions.net [6] WMS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wms [7] WFS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wfs [8] WPS, www.opengeospatial.org/standards/wps [9] OASIS, www.oasis-open.org [10] CAP, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#capv1.1 [11] EDXL-DE, www.oasis-open.org/specs/#edxlde-v1.0 [12] SOAP, www.w3.org/TR/soap [13] GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) is a project of the German Federal Government to aid the recon¬struction of the tsunami-prone Indian Ocean region, www.gitews.org [14] The Tsunami Service Bus is the GITEWS sensor system integration platform offering standardised services for the detection and monitoring of tsunamis

Breaking bad news: Effects of forecasting diagnosis and framing prognosis.

PubMed

Porensky, Emily K; Carpenter, Brian D

2016-01-01

Research to support guidelines for breaking bad news is lacking. This study used an experimental paradigm to test two communication strategies, forecasting bad news and framing prognosis, in the context of cancer. In a 2×2 design, 128 participants received bad news in a hypothetical consultation. A videotaped physician presented diagnostic and prognostic information, varying warning (warning shot vs. no warning), and framing (positive vs. negative). Effects on psychological distress, recall accuracy, and subjective interpretations of the news were assessed. Warning was not associated with lower psychological distress or improved recall. Individuals who heard a positively-framed prognosis had significantly less psychological distress, rated their prognosis better, and were more hopeful than those who heard a negatively-framed prognosis. However, they also showed a trend toward reduced accuracy in recalling prognostic statistics. Results contribute to a growing body of literature exploring optimal approaches for communicating bad news in health care. Although research in clinical settings is needed to bolster results, findings suggest that when providers use positive framing to reduce distress about prognosis, they should also consider ways to overcome potential reductions in recall accuracy, such as repeating statistical information or supplementing with written information. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

PubMed

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-10-28

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

PubMed Central

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-01-01

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

Unveiling the truth: warnings reduce the repetition-based truth effect.

PubMed

Nadarevic, Lena; Aßfalg, André

2017-07-01

Typically, people are more likely to consider a previously seen or heard statement as true compared to a novel statement. This repetition-based "truth effect" is thought to rely on fluency-truth attributions as the underlying cognitive mechanism. In two experiments, we tested the nature of the fluency-attribution mechanism by means of warning instructions, which informed participants about the truth effect and asked them to prevent it. In Experiment 1, we instructed warned participants to consider whether a statement had already been presented in the experiment to avoid the truth effect. However, warnings did not significantly reduce the truth effect. In Experiment 2, we introduced control questions and reminders to ensure that participants understood the warning instruction. This time, warning reduced, but did not eliminate the truth effect. Assuming that the truth effect relies on fluency-truth attributions, this finding suggests that warned participants could control their attributions but did not disregard fluency altogether when making truth judgments. Further, we found no evidence that participants overdiscount the influence of fluency on their truth judgments.

77 FR 64077 - National Highway-Rail Crossing Inventory Reporting Requirements

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-18

... about warning devices and signage, for each previously unreported and new public and private highway..., including current information about warning devices and signage, related to new and previously unreported... devices and signage * * * concerning each previously unreported crossing through which it operates or with...

Multi-granularity immunization strategy based on SIRS model in scale-free network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nian, Fuzhong; Wang, Ke

2015-04-01

In this paper, a new immunization strategy was established to prevent the epidemic spreading based on the principle of "Multi-granularity" and "Pre-warning Mechanism", which send different pre-warning signal with the risk rank of the susceptible node to be infected. The pre-warning means there is a higher risk that the susceptible node is more likely to be infected. The multi-granularity means the susceptible node is linked with multi-infected nodes. In our model, the effect of the different situation of the multi-granularity immunizations is compared and different spreading rates are adopted to describe the epidemic behavior of nodes. In addition the threshold value of epidemic outbreak is investigated, which makes the result more convincing. The theoretical analysis and the simulations indicate that the proposed immunization strategy is effective and it is also economic and feasible.

Introducing the Resilience into the State Transportation Network

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

California has been a leader in adopting policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, for too long, businesses have been warning of key routes that are stretched to the breaking point. In many places across California, it takes only a sing...

Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

PubMed Central

Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

2016-01-01

Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968