Sample records for warning lead times

  1. Effects of lead time of verbal collision warning messages on driving behavior in connected vehicle settings.

    PubMed

    Wan, Jingyan; Wu, Changxu; Zhang, Yiqi

    2016-09-01

    Under the connected vehicle environment, vehicles will be able to exchange traffic information with roadway infrastructure and other vehicles. With such information, collision warning systems (CWSs) will be able to warn drivers with potentially hazardous situations within or out of sight and reduce collision accidents. The lead time of warning messages is a crucial factor in determining the effectiveness of CWSs in the prevention of traffic accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the effects of lead time on driving behaviors and explore the optimal lead time in various collision scenarios. The present driving simulator experiment studied the effects of controlled lead time at 16 levels (predetermined time headway from the subject vehicle to the collision location when the warning message broadcasted to a driver) on driving behaviors in various collision scenarios. Maximum effectiveness of warning messages was achieved when the controlled lead time was within the range of 5s to 8s. Specifically, the controlled lead time ranging from 4s to 8s led to the optimal safety benefit; and the controlled lead time ranging from 5s to 8s led to more gradual braking and shorter reaction time. Furthermore, a trapezoidal distribution of warning effectiveness was found by building a statistic model using curve estimation considering lead time, lifetime driving experience, and driving speed. The results indicated that the controlled lead time significantly affected driver performance. The findings have implications for the design of collision warning systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  2. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic devices that accurately determine actual warning... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be...

  3. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic devices that accurately determine actual warning... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be...

  4. Forward Collision Warning: Clues to Optimal Timing of Advisory Warnings

    PubMed Central

    Aksan, Nazan; Sager, Lauren; Hacker, Sarah; Marini, Robert; Dawson, Jeffrey; Anderson, Steven; Rizzo, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effectiveness of a heads-up Forward Collision Warning (FCW) system in 39 younger to middle aged drivers (25-50, mean = 35 years) and 37 older drivers (66-87, mean = 77 years). The warnings were implemented in a fixed based, immersive, 180 degree forward field of view simulator. The FCW included a visual advisory component consisting of a red horizontal bar which flashed in the center screen of the simulator that was triggered at time-to-collision (TTC) 4 seconds. The bar roughly overlapped the rear bumper of the lead vehicle, just below the driver's line-of-sight. A sustained auditory tone (~80 dB) was activated at TTC=2 to alert the driver to an imminent collision. Hence, the warning system differed from the industry standard in significant ways. 95% Confidence intervals for the safety gains ranged from −.03 to .19 seconds in terms of average correction time across several activations. Older and younger adults did not differ in terms of safety gains. Closer inspection of data revealed that younger to middle aged drivers were already braking (42%) on a larger proportion of FCW activations than older drivers (26%), p < .001. Conversely, older drivers were still accelerating (38%) on a larger proportion of FCW activations than younger to middle aged drivers (23%) at the time FCW was activated, p < .009. There were no differences in the proportion of activations when drivers were coasting at the time FCW was activated, p = .240. Furthermore, large individual differences in basic visual, motor, and cognitive function predicted the tendency to brake prior to FCW activation. Those who tended to be better functioning in each of these domains were more likely to be already braking prior to FCW activation at the fixed threshold of TTC=4. These findings suggest optimal timing for advisory alerts for forward events may need to be larger than TTC=4. PMID:27648455

  5. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 12 months and when the warning system is modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning...

  6. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 12 months and when the warning system is modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning...

  7. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 12 months and when the warning system is modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning...

  8. Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

  9. Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

    PubMed

    Gray, Rob

    2011-02-01

    A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

  10. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.

    1987-01-01

    A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

  11. Real-Time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-04-01

    T. Perkins, R. Sundberg, J. Cordell, Z. Tun , and M. Owen, Real-time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing, Proc. SPIE Vol 6208...Z39-18 Real-time target motion animation for missile warning system testing Timothy Perkins*a, Robert Sundberga, John Cordellb, Zaw Tunb, Mark

  12. How does a collision warning system shape driver's brake response time? The influence of expectancy and automation complacency on real-life emergency braking.

    PubMed

    Ruscio, Daniele; Ciceri, Maria Rita; Biassoni, Federica

    2015-04-01

    Brake Reaction Time (BRT) is an important parameter for road safety. Previous research has shown that drivers' expectations can impact RT when facing hazardous situations, but driving with advanced driver assistance systems, can change the way BRT are considered. The interaction with a collision warning system can help faster more efficient responses, but at the same time can require a monitoring task and evaluation process that may lead to automation complacency. The aims of the present study are to test in a real-life setting whether automation compliancy can be generated by a collision warning system and what component of expectancy can impact the different tasks involved in an assisted BRT process. More specifically four component of expectancy were investigated: presence/absence of anticipatory information, previous direct experience, reliability of the device, and predictability of the hazard determined by repeated use of the warning system. Results supply indication on perception time and mental elaboration of the collision warning system alerts. In particular reliable warning quickened the decision making process, misleading warnings generated automation complacency slowing visual search for hazard detection, lack of directed experienced slowed the overall response while unexpected failure of the device lead to inattentional blindness and potential pseudo-accidents with surprise obstacle intrusion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit

    2015-03-01

    Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction

  14. Helicopter crashes into water: warning time, final position, and other factors affecting survival.

    PubMed

    Brooks, Christopher J; MacDonald, Conor V; Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren L

    2014-04-01

    According to 40 yr of data, the fatality rate for a helicopter crash into water is approximately 25%. Does warning time and the final position of the helicopter in the water influence the survival rate? The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried to identify helicopter crashes into water between 1981 and 2011 in the Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii. Fatality rate, amount of warning time prior to the crash, and final position of the helicopter were identified. There were 133 helicopters that crashed into water with 456 crew and passengers. Of these, 119 occupants (26%) did not survive; of those who did survive, 38% were injured. Twelve died after making a successful escape from the helicopter. Crashes with < 15 s warning had a fatality rate of 22%, compared to 12% for 16-60 s warning and 5% for > 1 min. However, more than half of fatalities (57%) came from crashes for which the warning time could not be determined. Lack of warning time and how to survive in the water after the crash should be a topic for study in all marine survival/aircraft ditching courses. Investigators should be trained to provide estimates of warning time when investigating helicopter crashes into water.

  15. Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan

    2017-05-01

    A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.

  16. Potential for Expanding the Near Real Time ForWarn Regional Forest Monitoring System to Include Alaska

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Gasser, Gerald; Hargrove, William; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip D.

    2014-01-01

    The on-line near real time (NRT) ForWarn system is currently deployed to monitor regional forest disturbances within the conterminous United States (CONUS), using daily MODIS Aqua and Terra NDVI data to derive monitoring products. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated such a system. Work on ForWarn began in 2006 with development and validation of retrospective MODIS NDVI-based forest monitoring products. Subsequently, NRT forest disturbance monitoring products were demonstrated, leading to the actual system deployment in 2010. ForWarn provides new CONUS forest disturbance monitoring products every 8 days, using USGS eMODIS data for current NDVI. ForWarn currently does not cover Alaska, which includes extensive forest lands at risk to multiple biotic and abiotic threats. This poster discusses a case study using Alaska eMODIS Terra data to derive ForWarn like forest change products during the 2010 growing season. The eMODIS system provides current MODIS Terra NDVI products for Alaska. Resulting forest change products were assessed with ground, aerial, and Landsat reference data. When cloud and snow free, these preliminary products appeared to capture regional forest disturbances from insect defoliation and fires; however, more work is needed to mitigate cloud and snow contamination, including integration of eMODIS Aqua data.

  17. Timing of new black box warnings and withdrawals for prescription medications.

    PubMed

    Lasser, Karen E; Allen, Paul D; Woolhandler, Steffie J; Himmelstein, David U; Wolfe, Sidney M; Bor, David H

    2002-05-01

    Recently approved drugs may be more likely to have unrecognized adverse drug reactions (ADRs) than established drugs, but no recent studies have examined how frequently postmarketing surveillance identifies important ADRs. To determine the frequency and timing of discovery of new ADRs described in black box warnings or necessitating withdrawal of the drug from the market. Examination of the Physicians' Desk Reference for all new chemical entities approved by the US Food and Drug Administration between 1975 and 1999, and all drugs withdrawn from the market between 1975 and 2000 (with or without a prior black box warning). Frequency of and time to a new black box warning or drug withdrawal. A total of 548 new chemical entities were approved in 1975-1999; 56 (10.2%) acquired a new black box warning or were withdrawn. Forty-five drugs (8.2%) acquired 1 or more black box warnings and 16 (2.9%) were withdrawn from the market. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, the estimated probability of acquiring a new black box warning or being withdrawn from the market over 25 years was 20%. Eighty-one major changes to drug labeling in the Physicians' Desk Reference occurred including the addition of 1 or more black box warnings per drug, or drug withdrawal. In Kaplan-Meier analyses, half of these changes occurred within 7 years of drug introduction; half of the withdrawals occurred within 2 years. Serious ADRs commonly emerge after Food and Drug Administration approval. The safety of new agents cannot be known with certainty until a drug has been on the market for many years.

  18. An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent; Pitz, Alan; Kaplinger, Brian; Hawkins, Matt; Winkler, Tim; Premaratne, Pavithra; Vardaxis, George; Lyzhoft, Joshua; Zimmerman, Ben

    2015-01-01

    To develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation technique for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (i.e., when we don't have sufficient warning times for a deflection mission).

  19. Warnings of adverse side effects can backfire over time.

    PubMed

    Steinhart, Yael; Carmon, Ziv; Trope, Yaacov

    2013-09-01

    Warnings that a promoted product can have adverse side effects (e.g., smoking cigarettes can cause cancer) should dampen the product's allure. We predicted that with temporal distance (e.g., when an ad relates to future consumption or was viewed some time earlier), this common type of warning can have a worrisome alternative consequence: It can ironically boost the product's appeal. Building on construal-level theory, we argue that this is because temporal distance evokes high-level construal, which deemphasizes side effects and emphasizes message trustworthiness. In four studies, we demonstrated this phenomenon. For example, participants could buy cigarettes or artificial sweeteners after viewing an ad promoting the product. Immediately afterward, the quantity that participants bought predictably decreased if the ad they saw included a warning about adverse side effects. With temporal distance (product to be delivered 3 months later, or 2 weeks after the ad was viewed), however, participants who had seen an ad noting the benefits of the product but warning of risky side effects bought more than those who had seen an ad noting only benefits.

  20. Evaluating Warning Sound Urgency with Reaction Times

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suied, Clara; Susini, Patrick; McAdams, Stephen

    2008-01-01

    It is well-established that subjective judgments of perceived urgency of alarm sounds can be affected by acoustic parameters. In this study, the authors investigated an objective measurement, the reaction time (RT), to test the effectiveness of temporal parameters of sounds in the context of warning sounds. Three experiments were performed using a…

  1. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  2. Response time effects of alerting tone and semantic context for synthesized voice cockpit warnings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1980-01-01

    Some handbooks and human factors design guides have recommended that a voice warning should be preceded by a tone to attract attention to the warning. As far as can be determined from a search of the literature, no experimental evidence supporting this exists. A fixed-base simulator flown by airline pilots was used to test the hypothesis that the total 'system-time' to respond to a synthesized voice cockpit warning would be longer when the message was preceded by a tone because the voice itself was expected to perform both the alerting and the information transfer functions. The simulation included realistic ATC radio voice communications, synthesized engine noise, cockpit conversation, and realistic flight routes. The effect of a tone before a voice warning was to lengthen response time; that is, responses were slower with an alerting tone. Lengthening the voice warning with another work, however, did not increase response time.

  3. Evaluation of a sudden brake warning system: effect on the response time of the following driver.

    PubMed

    Isler, Robert B; Starkey, Nicola J

    2010-07-01

    This study used a video-based braking simulation dual task to carry out a preliminary evaluation of the effect of a sudden brake warning system (SBWS) in a leading passenger vehicle on the response time of the following driver. The primary task required the participants (N=25, 16 females, full NZ license holders) to respond to sudden braking manoeuvres of a lead vehicle during day and night driving, wet and dry conditions and in rural and urban traffic, while concurrently performing a secondary tracking task using a computer mouse. The SBWS in the lead vehicle consisted of g-force controlled activation of the rear hazard lights (the rear indicators flashed), in addition to the standard brake lights. Overall, the results revealed that responses to the braking manoeuvres of the leading vehicles when the hazard lights were activated by the warning system were 0.34 s (19%) faster compared to the standard brake lights. The SBWS was particularly effective when the simulated braking scenario of the leading vehicle did not require an immediate and abrupt braking response. Given this, the SBWS may also be beneficial for allowing smoother deceleration, thus reducing fuel consumption. These preliminary findings justify a larger, more ecologically valid laboratory evaluation which may lead to a naturalistic study in order to test this new technology in 'real world' braking situations. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Recognizing Warning Signs of K-12 Christian School Distress That Lead to School Closure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fellers, Ron

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research was to identify statistically significant warning signs of K12 Christian school distress that can lead to school closure in the areas of leadership, homogeneity of vision and culture, finances, and competition, as described by Fitzpatrick (2002) and Nichols (2006). Twenty-four strong, declining, and closed K-12…

  5. Solar Energetic Particle Warnings from a Coronagraph

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    St Cyr, O. C.; Posner, A.; Burkepile, J. T.

    2017-01-01

    We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory and by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph. The near-real-time availability of the high-cadence K-Cor observations in the low corona leads to an obvious question: Why has no one attempted to use a coronagraph as an early warning device for SEP events? The answer is that the low image cadence and the long latency of existing spaceborne coronagraphs make them valid for archival studies but typically unsuitable for near-real-time forecasting. The January 2016 event provided favorable CME viewing geometry and demonstrated that the primary component of a prototype ground-based system for SEP warnings is available several hours on most days. We discuss how a conceptual CME-based warning system relates to other techniques, including an estimate of the relative SEP warning times, and how such a system might be realized.

  6. Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

    2014-05-01

    Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

  7. Alcohol warnings in TV beer advertisements.

    PubMed

    Slater, M D; Domenech, M M

    1995-05-01

    Mandated warnings are among the few steps Congress has taken to influence the use of legal substances such as alcohol. The usefulness of such warnings in discouraging abuse of alcohol is, however, controversial. This study examines the impact of televised warnings on probable antecedents of belief change not examined in previous research: confidence in beliefs about beer risks or benefits, and cognitive responses to the advertisements. The present study (N = 75 male and female college students) tests four of the warnings recommended in Senate Bill 674 (1993--the "Thurmond bill") edited into randomly sampled television beer advertisements, using a between-subjects treatment-and-control experimental design. The four advertisements or advertisement/warning pairs were counterbalanced and analyzed as a repeated measures factor. The study indicated, as hypothesized, that subjects exposed to warnings tended to have less confidence in their generally skeptical assessments of beer risks--a likely precursor to belief change in resistant populations. Repeated exposure to the advertisements alone also appeared to lead to increased confidence in generally positive assessments of beer benefits, whereas repeated exposure to warnings led to decreased confidence in such assessments. Repeated exposure to warnings also may have primed negative reactions to subsequent beer advertisements. These results suggest mechanisms by which alcohol warnings may over time influence beliefs. Measures used here may serve as useful criterion variables in future studies on warnings. Further attention to optimizing warning content and presentation is recommended.

  8. Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

    2017-03-01

    This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

  9. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2015-04-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  10. A psychophysiological evaluation of the perceived urgency of auditory warning signals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burt, J. L.; Bartolome, D. S.; Burdette, D. W.; Comstock, J. R. Jr

    1995-01-01

    One significant concern that pilots have about cockpit auditory warnings is that the signals presently used lack a sense of priority. The relationship between auditory warning sound parameters and perceived urgency is, therefore, an important topic of enquiry in aviation psychology. The present investigation examined the relationship among subjective assessments of urgency, reaction time, and brainwave activity with three auditory warning signals. Subjects performed a tracking task involving automated and manual conditions, and were presented with auditory warnings having various levels of perceived and situational urgency. Subjective assessments revealed that subjects were able to rank warnings on an urgency scale, but rankings were altered after warnings were mapped to a situational urgency scale. Reaction times differed between automated and manual tracking task conditions, and physiological data showed attentional differences in response to perceived and situational warning urgency levels. This study shows that the use of physiological measures sensitive to attention and arousal, in conjunction with behavioural and subjective measures, may lead to the design of auditory warnings that produce a sense of urgency in an operator that matches the urgency of the situation.

  11. Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

  12. The One-Meter Criterion for Tsunami Warning: Time for a Reevaluation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fryer, G. J.; Weinstein, S.

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. tsunami warning centers issue warnings when runup is anticipated to exceed one meter. The origins of the one-meter criterion are unclear, though Whitmore, et al (2008) showed from tsunami history that one meter is roughly the threshold above which damage occurs. Recent experiences in Hawaii, however, suggest that the threshold could be raised. Tsunami Warnings were issued for 2010 Chile, 2011 Tohoku, and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunamis; each exceeded one meter runup somewhere in the State. Evacuation, however, was necessary only in 2011, and even then onshore damage (as opposed to damage from currents) occurred only where runup exceeded 1.5m. During both Chile and Haida Gwaii tsunamis the existing criteria led to unnecessary evacuation. Maximum runup during the Chile tsunami was 1.1m at Hilo's Wailoa Boat Harbor, while the Haida Gwaii tsunami peaked at 1.2m at Honouliwai Bay on Molokai. Both tsunamis caused only minor damage and minimal flooding; in both cases a Tsunami Advisory (i.e., there is no need to evacuate, but stay off the beach and out of the water) would have been adequate. The Advisory was originally developed as an ad hoc response to the mildly threatening 2006 Kuril tsunami and has since been formalized as the product we issue when maximum runup is expected to be 0.3-1.0 m. At the time it was introduced, however, there was no discussion that this new low-level warning might allow the criterion for Tsunami Warning itself to be adjusted. We now suggest that the divide between Advisory and Warning be raised from 1.0 to something greater, possibly 1.2m. If the warning threshold were raised to 1.2m, the over-warning for the Chile tsunami still could not have been avoided. Models calibrated against DART data consistently forecast runup just over 1.2m for that event. For Haida Gwaii, adjusting the models to match the DART data increased the forecast runup to almost 2m, which again meant a warning, though in retrospect we should have been skeptical. The

  13. NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

    2016-01-01

    This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

  14. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

    PubMed

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-10-28

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

  15. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

    PubMed Central

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-01-01

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  16. Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

  17. Failure warning of hydrous sandstone based on electroencephalogram technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Kai; Zheng, Wei

    2018-06-01

    Sandstone is a type of rock mass that widely exists in nature. Moisture is an important factor that leads to sandstone structural failure. The major failure assessment methods of hydrous sandstone at present cannot satisfy real-time and portability requirements, especially lacks of warning function. In this study, acoustic emission (AE) and computed tomography (CT) techniques are combined for real-time failure assessment of hydrous sandstone. Eight visual colors for warning are screened according to different failure states, and an electroencephalogram (EEG) experiment is conducted to demonstrate their diverse excitations of the human brain's concentration.

  18. Information dissipation as an early-warning signal for the Lehman Brothers collapse in financial time series

    PubMed Central

    Quax, Rick; Kandhai, Drona; Sloot, Peter M. A.

    2013-01-01

    In financial markets, participants locally optimize their profit which can result in a globally unstable state leading to a catastrophic change. The largest crash in the past decades is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers which was followed by a trust-based crisis between banks due to high-risk trading in complex products. We introduce information dissipation length (IDL) as a leading indicator of global instability of dynamical systems based on the transmission of Shannon information, and apply it to the time series of USD and EUR interest rate swaps (IRS). We find in both markets that the IDL steadily increases toward the bankruptcy, then peaks at the time of bankruptcy, and decreases afterwards. Previously introduced indicators such as ‘critical slowing down' do not provide a clear leading indicator. Our results suggest that the IDL may be used as an early-warning signal for critical transitions even in the absence of a predictive model. PMID:23719567

  19. Information dissipation as an early-warning signal for the Lehman Brothers collapse in financial time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quax, Rick; Kandhai, Drona; Sloot, Peter M. A.

    2013-05-01

    In financial markets, participants locally optimize their profit which can result in a globally unstable state leading to a catastrophic change. The largest crash in the past decades is the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers which was followed by a trust-based crisis between banks due to high-risk trading in complex products. We introduce information dissipation length (IDL) as a leading indicator of global instability of dynamical systems based on the transmission of Shannon information, and apply it to the time series of USD and EUR interest rate swaps (IRS). We find in both markets that the IDL steadily increases toward the bankruptcy, then peaks at the time of bankruptcy, and decreases afterwards. Previously introduced indicators such as `critical slowing down' do not provide a clear leading indicator. Our results suggest that the IDL may be used as an early-warning signal for critical transitions even in the absence of a predictive model.

  20. Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings at Raleigh, North Carolina.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoium, Debra K.; Riordan, Allen J.; Monahan, John; Keeter, Kermit K.

    1997-11-01

    The National Weather Service issues public warnings for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes when these storms appear imminent. A study of the warning process was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office at Raleigh, North Carolina, from 1994 through 1996. The purpose of the study was to examine the decision process by documenting the types of information leading to decisions to warn or not to warn and by describing the sequence and timing of events in the development of warnings. It was found that the evolution of warnings followed a logical sequence beginning with storm monitoring and proceeding with increasingly focused activity. For simplicity, information input to the process was categorized as one of three types: ground truth, radar reflectivity, or radar velocity.Reflectivity, velocity, and ground truth were all equally likely to initiate the investigation process. This investigation took an average of 7 min, after which either a decision was made not to warn or new information triggered the warning. Decisions not to issue warnings were based more on ground truth and reflectivity than radar velocity products. Warnings with investigations of more than 2 min were more likely to be triggered by radar reflectivity, than by velocity or ground truth. Warnings with a shorter investigation time, defined here as "immediate trigger warnings," were less frequently based on velocity products and more on ground truth information. Once the decision was made to warn, it took an average of 2.1 min to prepare the warning text. In 85% of cases when warnings were issued, at least one contact was made to emergency management officials or storm spotters in the warned county. Reports of severe weather were usually received soon after the warning was transmitted-almost half of these within 30 min after issue. A total of 68% were received during the severe weather episode, but some of these storm reports later proved false according to Storm Data.Even though the WSR

  1. Real-Time Integration of Positioning and Accelerometer Data for Early Earthquake Warning on Canada's West Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biffard, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Pirenne, B.; Valenzuela, M.; MacArthur, M.

    2017-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates ocean and coastal observatories on all three of Canada's coasts, and more particularly across the Cascadia subduction zone. The data are acquired, parsed, calibrated and archived by ONC's data management system (Oceans 2.0), with real-time event detection, reaction and access capabilities. As such, ONC is in a unique position to develop early warning systems for earthquakes, near- and far-field tsunamis and other events. ONC is leading the development of a system to alert southwestern British Columbia of an impending Cascadia subduction zone earthquake on behalf of the provincial government and with the support of the Canadian Federal Government. Similarly to other early earthquake warning systems, an array of accelerometers is used to detect the initial earthquake p-waves. This can provide 5-60 seconds of warning to subscribers who can then take action, such as stopping trains and surgeries, closing valves, taking cover, etc. To maximize the detection capability and the time available to react to a notification, instruments are placed both underwater and on land on Vancouver Island. A novel feature of ONC's system is, for land-based sites, the combination of real-time satellite positioning (GNSS) and accelerometer data in the calculations to improve earthquake intensity estimates. This results in higher accuracy, dynamic range and responsiveness than either type of sensor is capable of alone. P-wave detections and displacement data are sent from remote stations to a data centre that must calculate epicentre locations and magnitude. The latter are then delivered to subscribers with client software that, given their position, will calculate arrival time and intensity. All of this must occur with very high standards for latency, reliability and accuracy.

  2. Warning systems in risk management.

    PubMed

    Paté-Cornell, M E

    1986-06-01

    A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost-effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment of the signals, and of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade-off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long-term effects of "crying wolf" and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.

  3. Developments in real-time monitoring for geologic hazard warnings (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leith, W. S.; Mandeville, C. W.; Earle, P. S.

    2013-12-01

    Real-time data from global, national and local sensor networks enable prompt alerts and warnings of earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruptions, geomagnetic storms , broad-scale crustal deformation and landslides. State-of-the-art seismic systems can locate and evaluate earthquake sources in seconds, enabling 'earthquake early warnings' to be broadcast ahead of the damaging surface waves so that protective actions can be taken. Strong motion monitoring systems in buildings now support near-real-time structural damage detection systems, and in quiet times can be used for state-of-health monitoring. High-rate GPS data are being integrated with seismic strong motion data, allowing accurate determination of earthquake displacements in near-real time. GPS data, combined with rainfall, groundwater and geophone data, are now used for near-real-time landslide monitoring and warnings. Real-time sea-floor water pressure data are key for assessing tsunami generation by large earthquakes. For monitoring remote volcanoes that lack local ground-based instrumentation, the USGS uses new technologies such as infrasound arrays and the worldwide lightning detection array to detect eruptions in progress. A new real-time UV-camera system for measuring the two dimensional SO2 flux from volcanic plumes will allow correlations with other volcano monitoring data streams to yield fundamental data on changes in gas flux as an eruption precursor, and how magmas de-gas prior to and during eruptions. Precision magnetic field data support the generation of real-time indices of geomagnetic disturbances (Dst, K and others), and can be used to model electrical currents in the crust and bulk power system. Ground-induced electrical current monitors are used to track those currents so that power grids can be effectively managed during geomagnetic storms. Beyond geophysical sensor data, USGS is using social media to rapidly detect possible earthquakes and to collect firsthand accounts of the impacts of

  4. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time variable rainfall thresholds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2014-10-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b), makes use of LAMI rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain-gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult and it provides different outputs. Switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a very straightforward view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain-gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the high spatial variability of the physical features, which affects the relationship between rainfall and landslides, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of 332 rain gauges, it allows monitoring each alert zone separately and warnings can be issued independently from an alert zone to another. An important feature of the warning system is the use of thresholds that may vary in time adapting at the conditions of the rainfall path recorded by the rain-gauges. Depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set, the comparison with the threshold may produce different outcomes. Therefore, a recursive algorithm was developed to check and compare with the thresholds all possible starting times, highlighting the worst scenario and showing in the WebGIS interface at what time and how much the rainfall path has exceeded or will exceed the most critical threshold. Besides forecasting and monitoring the hazard scenario

  5. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  6. Flash flood warnings for ungauged basins based on high-resolution precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Janet, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Early detection of flash floods, which are typically triggered by severe rainfall events, is still challenging due to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties at the spatial and temporal scales of interest. Also the rapid rising of waters necessarily limits the lead time of warnings to alert communities and activate effective emergency procedures. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium (up to 1000 km²) ungauged basins based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The current deterministic AIGA system has been run in real-time in the South of France since 2005 and has been tested in the RHYTMME project (rhytmme.irstea.fr/). It ingests the operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France to run a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model at a 1-km² resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. The calibration and regionalization of the hydrologic model has been recently enhanced for implementing the national flash flood warning system for the entire French territory by 2016. To further extend the effective warning lead time, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to ingest Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts. The AROME-NWC system combines the most recent available observations with forecasts from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015). AROME-NWC pre-operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, produced every hour at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon, were provided for 3 significant rain events in September and November 2014 and

  7. Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ji; Chen, Yangbo; Wang, Huanyu; Qin, Jianming; Li, Jie; Chiao, Sen

    2017-03-01

    Long lead time flood forecasting is very important for large watershed flood mitigation as it provides more time for flood warning and emergency responses. The latest numerical weather forecast model could provide 1-15-day quantitative precipitation forecasting products in grid format, and by coupling this product with a distributed hydrological model could produce long lead time watershed flood forecasting products. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling the Liuxihe model with the Weather Research and Forecasting quantitative precipitation forecast (WRF QPF) for large watershed flood forecasting in southern China. The QPF of WRF products has three lead times, including 24, 48 and 72 h, with the grid resolution being 20 km  × 20 km. The Liuxihe model is set up with freely downloaded terrain property; the model parameters were previously optimized with rain gauge observed precipitation, and re-optimized with the WRF QPF. Results show that the WRF QPF has bias with the rain gauge precipitation, and a post-processing method is proposed to post-process the WRF QPF products, which improves the flood forecasting capability. With model parameter re-optimization, the model's performance improves also. This suggests that the model parameters be optimized with QPF, not the rain gauge precipitation. With the increasing of lead time, the accuracy of the WRF QPF decreases, as does the flood forecasting capability. Flood forecasting products produced by coupling the Liuxihe model with the WRF QPF provide a good reference for large watershed flood warning due to its long lead time and rational results.

  8. Influence of safety warnings on ESA prescribing among dialysis patients using an interrupted time series

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In March, 2007, a black box warning was issued by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to use the lowest possible erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA) doses for treatment of anemia associated with renal disease. The goal is to determine if a change in ESA use was observed following the warning among US dialysis patients. Methods ESA therapy was examined from September 2004 through August 2009 (thirty months before and after the FDA black box warning) among adult Medicare hemodialysis patients. An interrupted time series model assessed the impact of the warnings. Results The FDA black box warning did not appear to influence ESA prescribing among the overall dialysis population. However, significant declines in ESA therapy after the FDA warnings were observed for selected populations. Patients with a hematocrit ≥36% had a declining month-to-month trend before (−164 units/week, p = <0.0001) and after the warnings (−80 units/week, p = .001), and a large drop in ESA level immediately after the black box (−4,744 units/week, p = <.0001). Not-for-profit facilities had a declining month-to-month trend before the warnings (−90 units/week, p = .009) and a large drop in ESA dose immediately afterwards (−2,487 units/week, p = 0.015). In contrast, for-profit facilities did not have a significant change in ESA prescribing. Conclusions ESA therapy had been both profitable for providers and controversial regarding benefits for nearly two decades. The extent to which a FDA black box warning highlighting important safety concerns influenced use of ESA therapy among nephrologists and dialysis providers was unknown. Our study found no evidence of changes in ESA prescribing for the overall dialysis population resulting from a FDA black box warning. PMID:23927675

  9. Aircraft Cabin Turbulence Warning Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bogue, Rodney K.; Larcher, Kenneth

    2006-01-01

    New turbulence prediction technology offers the potential for advance warning of impending turbulence encounters, thereby allowing necessary cabin preparation time prior to the encounter. The amount of time required for passengers and flight attendants to be securely seated (that is, seated with seat belts fastened) currently is not known. To determine secured seating-based warning times, a consortium of aircraft safety organizations have conducted an experiment involving a series of timed secured seating trials. This demonstrative experiment, conducted on October 1, 2, and 3, 2002, used a full-scale B-747 wide-body aircraft simulator, human passenger subjects, and supporting staff from six airlines. Active line-qualified flight attendants from three airlines participated in the trials. Definitive results have been obtained to provide secured seating-based warning times for the developers of turbulence warning technology

  10. Including trait-based early warning signals helps predict population collapse

    PubMed Central

    Clements, Christopher F.; Ozgul, Arpat

    2016-01-01

    Foreseeing population collapse is an on-going target in ecology, and this has led to the development of early warning signals based on expected changes in leading indicators before a bifurcation. Such signals have been sought for in abundance time-series data on a population of interest, with varying degrees of success. Here we move beyond these established methods by including parallel time-series data of abundance and fitness-related trait dynamics. Using data from a microcosm experiment, we show that including information on the dynamics of phenotypic traits such as body size into composite early warning indices can produce more accurate inferences of whether a population is approaching a critical transition than using abundance time-series alone. By including fitness-related trait information alongside traditional abundance-based early warning signals in a single metric of risk, our generalizable approach provides a powerful new way to assess what populations may be on the verge of collapse. PMID:27009968

  11. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  12. Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

    2013-04-01

    The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

  13. Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lomax, A.; Michelini, A.

    2012-12-01

    We have introduced recently new methods to determine rapidly the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome (http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://early-est.alomax.net). Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time, discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0-9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est givess similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data. Here we summarize some of the key algorithms within Early-est that enable rapid, real-time earthquake monitoring and tsunami early warning worldwide: >>> FilterPicker - a general purpose, broad-band, phase detector and picker (http://alomax.net/FilterPicker); >>> Robust, simultaneous association and location using a probabilistic, global-search; >>> Period-duration discriminants TdT0 and TdT50Ex for tsunami potential available within 5 min; >>> Mwpd(RT) magnitude for very large earthquakes available within 10 min; >>> Waveform P polarities determined on broad-band displacement traces, focal mechanisms obtained with the HASH program (Hardebeck and Shearer, 2002); >>> SeisGramWeb - a portable-device ready seismogram viewer using web-services in a browser (http://alomax.net/webtools/sgweb/info.html). References (see also: http

  14. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and

  15. Reducing process delays for real-time earthquake parameter estimation - An application of KD tree to large databases for Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Lucy; Andrews, Jennifer; Heaton, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Earthquake parameter estimations using nearest neighbor searching among a large database of observations can lead to reliable prediction results. However, in the real-time application of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, the accurate prediction using a large database is penalized by a significant delay in the processing time. We propose to use a multidimensional binary search tree (KD tree) data structure to organize large seismic databases to reduce the processing time in nearest neighbor search for predictions. We evaluated the performance of KD tree on the Gutenberg Algorithm, a database-searching algorithm for EEW. We constructed an offline test to predict peak ground motions using a database with feature sets of waveform filter-bank characteristics, and compare the results with the observed seismic parameters. We concluded that large database provides more accurate predictions of the ground motion information, such as peak ground acceleration, velocity, and displacement (PGA, PGV, PGD), than source parameters, such as hypocenter distance. Application of the KD tree search to organize the database reduced the average searching process by 85% time cost of the exhaustive method, allowing the method to be feasible for real-time implementation. The algorithm is straightforward and the results will reduce the overall time of warning delivery for EEW.

  16. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2017-12-01

    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  17. Real-Time Detection of Rupture Development: Earthquake Early Warning Using P Waves From Growing Ruptures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kodera, Yuki

    2018-01-01

    Large earthquakes with long rupture durations emit P wave energy throughout the rupture period. Incorporating late-onset P waves into earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms could contribute to robust predictions of strong ground motion. Here I describe a technique to detect in real time P waves from growing ruptures to improve the timeliness of an EEW algorithm based on seismic wavefield estimation. The proposed P wave detector, which employs a simple polarization analysis, successfully detected P waves from strong motion generation areas of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture. An analysis using 23 large (M ≥ 7) events from Japan confirmed that seismic intensity predictions based on the P wave detector significantly increased lead times without appreciably decreasing the prediction accuracy. P waves from growing ruptures, being one of the fastest carriers of information on ongoing rupture development, have the potential to improve the performance of EEW systems.

  18. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  19. An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.

  20. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  1. Use of radar rainfall estimates and forecasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road inundation warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine

    2012-01-01

    SummaryImportant damages occur in small headwater catchments when they are hit by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal structure, sometimes resulting in flash floods. As these catchments are mostly not covered by sensor networks, it is difficult to forecast these floods. This is particularly true for road submersions, representing major concerns for flood event managers. The use of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates and Forecasts (QPE/QPF) especially based on radar measurements could particularly be adequate to evaluate rainfall-induced risks. Although their characteristic time and space scales would make them suitable for flash flood modelling, the impact of their uncertainties remain uncertain and have to be evaluated. The Gard region (France) has been chosen as case study. This area is frequently affected by severe flash floods, and an application devoted to the road network has also been recently developed for the North part of this region. This warning system combines distributed hydro-meteorological modelling and susceptibility analysis to provide warnings of road inundations. The warning system has been tested on the specific storm of the 29-30 September 2007. During this event, around 200 mm dropped on the South part of the Gard and many roads were submerged. Radar-based QPE and QPF have been used to forecast the exact location of road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. Used on an area it has not been calibrated, the results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the

  2. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    PubMed Central

    Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

    2008-01-01

    Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and non-structural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums

  3. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  4. Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

    PubMed

    Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

    2018-05-01

    To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

    2016-12-01

    Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher

  6. Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

    2017-09-01

    The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  7. A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

    Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

  8. Tsunami Warning Protocol for Eruptions of Augustine Volcano, Cook Inlet, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, P.; Neal, C.; Nyland, D.; Murray, T.; Power, J.

    2006-12-01

    Augustine is an island volcano that has generated at least one tsunami. During its January 2006 eruption coastal residents of lower Cook Inlet became concerned about tsunami potential. To address this concern, NOAA's West Coast/ Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WC/ATWC) and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) jointly developed a tsunami warning protocol for the most likely scenario for tsunami generation at Augustine: a debris avalanche into the Cook Inlet. Tsunami modeling indicates that a wave generated at Augustine volcano could reach coastal communities in approximately 55 minutes. If a shallow seismic event with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred near Augustine and the AVO had set the level of concern color code to orange or red, the WC/ATWC would immediately issue a warning for the lower Cook Inlet. Given the short tsunami travel times involved, potentially affected communities would be provided as much lead time as possible. Large debris avalanches that could trigger a tsunami in lower Cook Inlet are expected to be accompanied by a strong seismic signal. Seismograms produced by these debris avalanches have unique spectral characteristics. After issuing a warning, the WC/ATWC would compare the observed waveform with known debris avalanches, and would consult with AVO to further evaluate the event using AVO's on-island networks (web cameras, seismic network, etc) to refine or cancel the warning. After the 2006 eruptive phase ended, WC/ATWC, with support from AVO and the University of Alaska Tsunami Warning and Environmental Observatory for Alaska program (TWEAK), developed and installed "splash-gauges" which will provide confirmation of tsunami generation.

  9. Connected motorcycle crash warning interfaces.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-01-15

    Crash warning systems have been deployed in the high-end vehicle market segment for some time and are trickling down to additional motor vehicle industry segments each year. The motorcycle segment, however, has no deployed crash warning system to dat...

  10. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  11. How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs

    PubMed Central

    Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2018-01-01

    There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test. PMID:29538373

  12. How one might miss early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data: A systematic study of two major currency pairs.

    PubMed

    Wen, Haoyu; Ciamarra, Massimo Pica; Cheong, Siew Ann

    2018-01-01

    There is growing interest in the use of critical slowing down and critical fluctuations as early warning signals for critical transitions in different complex systems. However, while some studies found them effective, others found the opposite. In this paper, we investigated why this might be so, by testing three commonly used indicators: lag-1 autocorrelation, variance, and low-frequency power spectrum at anticipating critical transitions in the very-high-frequency time series data of the Australian Dollar-Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc-Japanese Yen exchange rates. Besides testing rising trends in these indicators at a strict level of confidence using the Kendall-tau test, we also required statistically significant early warning signals to be concurrent in the three indicators, which must rise to appreciable values. We then found for our data set the optimum parameters for discovering critical transitions, and showed that the set of critical transitions found is generally insensitive to variations in the parameters. Suspecting that negative results in the literature are the results of low data frequencies, we created time series with time intervals over three orders of magnitude from the raw data, and tested them for early warning signals. Early warning signals can be reliably found only if the time interval of the data is shorter than the time scale of critical transitions in our complex system of interest. Finally, we compared the set of time windows with statistically significant early warning signals with the set of time windows followed by large movements, to conclude that the early warning signals indeed provide reliable information on impending critical transitions. This reliability becomes more compelling statistically the more events we test.

  13. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

    PubMed Central

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R.; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2012-01-01

    Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

  14. Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Becker, Rachel E.; Baum, Rex L.; Smith, Joel B.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

  15. Suborbital Asteroid Intercept and Fragmentation for Very Short Warning Time Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hupp, Ryan; Dewald, Spencer; Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

    2015-01-01

    Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) 50150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. However, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt).We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a fictitious incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally, at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances.Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEOwould strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total V 9.511 kms) could intercept incoming NEOs over a day prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of NEO intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

  16. Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

    PubMed

    Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

    2017-04-01

    Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Effect of audio in-vehicle red light-running warning message on driving behavior based on a driving simulator experiment.

    PubMed

    Yan, Xuedong; Liu, Yang; Xu, Yongcun

    2015-01-01

    Drivers' incorrect decisions of crossing signalized intersections at the onset of the yellow change may lead to red light running (RLR), and RLR crashes result in substantial numbers of severe injuries and property damage. In recent years, some Intelligent Transport System (ITS) concepts have focused on reducing RLR by alerting drivers that they are about to violate the signal. The objective of this study is to conduct an experimental investigation on the effectiveness of the red light violation warning system using a voice message. In this study, the prototype concept of the RLR audio warning system was modeled and tested in a high-fidelity driving simulator. According to the concept, when a vehicle is approaching an intersection at the onset of yellow and the time to the intersection is longer than the yellow interval, the in-vehicle warning system can activate the following audio message "The red light is impending. Please decelerate!" The intent of the warning design is to encourage drivers who cannot clear an intersection during the yellow change interval to stop at the intersection. The experimental results showed that the warning message could decrease red light running violations by 84.3 percent. Based on the logistic regression analyses, drivers without a warning were about 86 times more likely to make go decisions at the onset of yellow and about 15 times more likely to run red lights than those with a warning. Additionally, it was found that the audio warning message could significantly reduce RLR severity because the RLR drivers' red-entry times without a warning were longer than those with a warning. This driving simulator study showed a promising effect of the audio in-vehicle warning message on reducing RLR violations and crashes. It is worthwhile to further develop the proposed technology in field applications.

  18. The Influence of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warnings

    PubMed Central

    VanEpps, Eric M.; Roberto, Christina A.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction California, New York, and the cities of San Francisco and Baltimore have introduced bills requiring health-related warning labels for sugar-sweetened beverages. This study measures the extent to which these warning labels influence adolescents’ beliefs and hypothetical choices. Design Participants completed an online survey in which they chose a beverage in a hypothetical vending machine task, rated perceptions of different beverages, and indicated interest in coupons for beverages. Data were collected and analyzed in 2015. Setting/participants A total of 2,202 demographically diverse adolescents aged 12–18 years completed the online survey. Intervention Participants were randomly assigned to one of six conditions: (1) no warning label; (2) calorie label; (3–6) one of four text versions of a warning label (e.g., SAFETY WARNING: Drinking beverages with added sugar(s) contributes to obesity, diabetes, and tooth decay). Main outcome measures Hypothetical choices, perceptions of beverages, interest in coupons, and endorsement of warning label policies were assessed. Results Controlling for frequency of beverage purchases, significantly fewer adolescents chose a sugar-sweetened beverage in three of the four warning label conditions (65%, 63%, and 61%) than in the no label (77%) condition. Adolescents in the four warning label conditions chose fewer sugar-sweetened beverage coupons and believed that sugar-sweetened beverages were less likely to help them lead a healthy life and had more added sugar compared with the no label condition. Conclusions Health-related warning labels on sugar-sweetened beverages improved adolescents’ recognition of the sugar content of such beverages and reduced hypothetical choices to buy sugar-sweetened beverages. PMID:27617366

  19. Graphic Warning Labels in Cigarette Advertisements: Recall and Viewing Patterns

    PubMed Central

    Strasser, Andrew A.; Tang, Kathy Z.; Romer, Daniel; Jepson, Chris; Cappella, Joseph N.

    2012-01-01

    Background The Family Smoking Prevention and Control Act gave the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) legal authority to mandate graphic warning labels on cigarette advertising and packaging. The FDA requires that these graphic warning labels be embedded into cigarette advertising and packaging by September 2012. Purpose The aim of this study was to examine differences in recall and viewing patterns of text-only versus graphic cigarette warning labels; and, the association between viewing patterns and recall. Methods Participants (current daily smokers; N=200) were randomized to view a cigarette advertisement with either text-only or graphic warning labels. Viewing patterns were measured using eye-tracking, and recall was later assessed. Sessions were conducted between November 2008 and November 2009. Data analysis was conducted between March 2011 and July 2011. Results There was a significant difference in percentage correct recall of the warning label between those in the text-only versus graphic warning label condition, 50% versus 83% (χ2 =23.74, p=0.0001). Time to first view of the graphic warning label text, and dwell time duration (i.e., time spent looking) on the graphic image were significantly associated with correct recall. Warning labels that drew attention more quickly and resulted in longer dwell times were associated with better recall. Conclusions Graphic warning labels improve smokers’ recall of warning and health risks; they do so by drawing and holding attention. PMID:22704744

  20. Graphic warning labels in cigarette advertisements: recall and viewing patterns.

    PubMed

    Strasser, Andrew A; Tang, Kathy Z; Romer, Daniel; Jepson, Christopher; Cappella, Joseph N

    2012-07-01

    The Family Smoking Prevention and Control Act gave the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) legal authority to mandate graphic warning labels on cigarette advertising and packaging. The FDA requires that these graphic warning labels be embedded into cigarette advertising and packaging by September 2012. The aim of this study was to examine differences in recall and viewing patterns of text-only versus graphic cigarette warning labels and the association between viewing patterns and recall. Participants (current daily smokers; N=200) were randomized to view a cigarette advertisement with either text-only or graphic warning labels. Viewing patterns were measured using eye-tracking, and recall was later assessed. Sessions were conducted between November 2008 and November 2009. Data analysis was conducted between March 2011 and July 2011. There was a significant difference in percentage correct recall of the warning label between those in the text-only versus graphic warning label condition, 50% vs 83% (χ(2)=23.74, p=0.0001). Time to first viewing of the graphic warning label text and dwell time duration (i.e., time spent looking) on the graphic image were significantly associated with correct recall. Warning labels that drew attention more quickly and resulted in longer dwell times were associated with better recall. Graphic warning labels improve smokers' recall of warning and health risks; these labels do so by drawing and holding attention. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts to prevent flash flood in real time by using a road submersion warning tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Sempere-Torres, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    road submersions and the results have been compared to the effective road submersions actually occurred during the event as listed by the emergency services. The results confirm that the road submersion warning system represents a promising tool for anticipating and quantifying the consequences of storm events at ground. It rates the submersion risk with an acceptable level of accuracy and a reasonable false alarm ratio. It demonstrates also the quality of high spatial and temporal resolution radar rainfall data in real time, and the possibility to use them despite their uncertainties. However because of the quality of rainfall nowcasts falls drastically with time, it is not often sufficient to provide valuable information for lead times exceeding one hour.

  2. Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

    PubMed

    Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

    2017-06-22

    Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

  3. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  4. Analysis of legal and scientific issues in court challenges to graphic tobacco warnings.

    PubMed

    Kraemer, John D; Baig, Sabeeh A

    2013-09-01

    Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S., yet cigarette health warnings in the U.S. are among the weakest in the world. In 2011, the FDA issued regulations mandating that graphic warnings be displayed on every cigarette pack sold in the U.S. Almost immediately, the tobacco industry challenged the warnings on First Amendment grounds. In March 2013, the FDA withdrew the graphic warning mandate, choosing instead to pursue additional research and then issue requirements for a new set of warnings. These warnings almost certainly will be challenged by the tobacco industry. The current paper describes the legal standards that will be used to assess the warnings, and the empirical questions that must be answered in order to determine whether each standard has been met. The paper also identifies errors the FDA could make in choosing images to be evaluated that would cause the images to be unable to meet the standards, regardless of the scientific evidence the FDA can establish. To be on safest ground, the FDA should adopt images that depict factual health consequences of smoking and should avoid images that could be interpreted as opinions. The FDA will have a high likelihood of prevailing in legal challenges to the warnings if there is evidence demonstrating that graphic warnings are necessary to counter past industry deception or that graphic warnings affect smoking behavior better than textual warnings. Even without evidence of the impact of graphic warnings on behavior, strong evidence that they affect behavioral intent, and that intent predicts behavior, should be sufficient for the warnings to be upheld. Alternatively, evidence that graphic warnings lead to more accurate consumer assessment of smoking risks should also be sufficient. Copyright © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

    2015-04-01

    When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

  6. Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

    2017-04-01

    An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

  7. Streamlining Tsunami Messages (e.g., Warnings) of the US National Tsunami Warning Center, Palmer, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, C. E.; Sorensen, J. H.; Vogt Sorensen, B.; Whitmore, P.; Johnston, D. M.

    2016-12-01

    Spurred in part by world-wide interest in improving warning messaging for and response to tsunamis in the wake of several catastrophic tsunamis since 2004 and growing interest at the US National Weather Service (NWS) to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program, the NWS Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii have made great progress toward enhancing tsunami messages. These include numerous products, among them being Tsunami Warnings, Tsunami Advisories and Tsunami Watches. Beginning in 2010 we have worked with US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Warning Coordination and Mitigation and Education Subcommittee members; Tsunami Program administrators; and NWS Weather Forecast Officers to conduct a series of focus group meetings with stakeholders in coastal areas of Alaska, American Samoa, California, Hawaii, North Carolina, Oregon, US Virgin Islands and Washington to understand end-user perceptions of existing messages and their existing needs in message products. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a Tsunami Warning Message Metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order, Formatting, and Receiver Characteristics. A sample message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met, whether the message is a full length or short message. Incrementally, this work contributed to revisions in the format, content and style of message products issued by the National Tsunami Warning Center (NTWC). Since that time, interest in short warning messages has continued to increase and in May 2016 the NTWC began efforts to revise message products to take advantage of recent NWS policy changes allowing use of mixed-case text

  8. Alcohol Warning Label Perceptions: Do Warning Sizes and Plain Packaging Matter?

    PubMed

    Al-Hamdani, Mohammed; Smith, Steven M

    2017-01-01

    There is a dearth of research on the effectiveness of stringent alcohol warning labels. Our experiment tested whether increasing the size of an alcohol health warning lowers product-based ratings. We examined whether plain packaging lowers ratings of alcohol products and the consumers who use them, increases ratings of bottle "boringness," and enhances warning recognition compared with branded packaging. A total of 440 adults (51.7% female) viewed one of three warning sizes (50%, 75%, or 90% of label surface) on either a plain or branded bottle of distilled spirits, wine, and beer. Participants also rated alcohol bottles on product-based (assessing the product itself), consumer-based (assessing perceptions of consumers of the product), and bottle boringness ratings, and then attempted to recognize the correct warning out of four choices. As expected, the size of warning labels lowered product-based ratings. Similarly, plain packaging lowered product-based and consumer-based ratings and increased bottle boringness but only for wine bottles. Further, plain packaging increased the odds of warning recognition on bottles of distilled spirits. This study shows that plain packaging and warning size (similar to the graphic warnings on cigarette packages) affect perceptions about alcohol bottles. It also shows that plain packaging increases the likelihood for correct health warning recognition, which builds the case for alcohol warning and packaging research and policy.

  9. Warning Alert HITL Experiment Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Monk, Kevin J.; Ferm, Lisa; Roberts, Zach

    2018-01-01

    Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) are being developed to support the integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace (NAS). Input from subject matter experts and multiple research studies have informed display requirements for Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems aimed at supporting timely and appropriate pilot responses to collision hazards. Phase 1 DAA MOPS alerting is designed to inform pilots if an avoidance maneuver is necessary; the two highest alert levels - caution and warning - indicate how soon pilot action is required and whether there is adequate time to coordinate with the air traffic controller (ATC). Additional empirical support is needed to clarify the extent to which warning-level alerting impacts DAA task performance. The present study explores the differential effects of the auditory and visual cues provided by the DAA Warning alert, and performance implications compared to caution-only alerting are discussed.

  10. Research on intelligent scenic security early warning platform based on high resolution image: real scene linkage and real-time LBS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Baishou; Huang, Yu; Lan, Guangquan; Li, Tingting; Lu, Ting; Yao, Mingxing; Luo, Yuandan; Li, Boxiang; Qian, Yongyou; Gao, Yujiu

    2015-12-01

    This paper design and implement security monitor system within a scenic spot for tourists, the scenic spot staff can be automatic real time for visitors to perception and monitoring, and visitors can also know about themselves location in the scenic, real-time and obtain the 3D imaging conditions of scenic area. Through early warning can realize "parent-child relation", preventing the old man and child lost and wandering. Research results to the further development of virtual reality to provide effective security early warning platform of the theoretical basis and practical reference.

  11. A flexible hydrological warning system in Denmark for real-time surface water and groundwater simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Xin; Stisen, Simon; Wiese, Marianne B.; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans

    2015-04-01

    In Denmark, increasing focus on extreme weather events has created considerable demand for short term forecasts and early warnings in relation to groundwater and surface water flooding. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) has setup, calibrated and applied a nationwide water resources model, the DK-Model, primarily for simulating groundwater and surface water flows and groundwater levels during the past 20 years. So far, the DK-model has only been used in offline historical and future scenario simulations. Therefore, challenges arise in operating such a model for online forecasts and early warnings, which requires access to continuously updated observed climate input data and forecast data of precipitation, temperature and global radiation for the next 48 hours or longer. GEUS has a close collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute in order to test and enable this data input for the DK model. Due to the comprehensive physical descriptions of the DK-Model, the simulation results can potentially be any component of the hydrological cycle within the models domain. Therefore, it is important to identify which results need to be updated and saved in the real-time mode, since it is not computationally economical to save every result considering the heavy load of data. GEUS have worked closely with the end-users and interest groups such as water planners and emergency managers from the municipalities, water supply and waste water companies, consulting companies and farmer organizations, in order to understand their possible needs for real time simulation and monitoring of the nationwide water cycle. This participatory process has been supported by a web based questionnaire survey, and a workshop that connected the model developers and the users. For qualifying the stakeholder engagement, GEUS has selected a representative catchment area (Skjern River) for testing and demonstrating a prototype of the web based hydrological warning system at the

  12. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

  13. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    PubMed Central

    Hanks, Thomas C.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190

  14. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  15. Sepsis in Obstetrics: Clinical Features and Early Warning Tools.

    PubMed

    Parfitt, Sheryl E; Bogat, Mary L; Hering, Sandra L; Ottley, Charlotte; Roth, Cheryl

    Morbidity and mortality associated with sepsis has gained widespread attention on a local, state, and national level, yet, it remains a complicated disorder that can be difficult to identify in a timely manner. Sepsis in obstetric patients further complicates the diagnosis as alterations in physiology related to pregnancy can mask sepsis indicators normally seen in the general population. If early signs of sepsis go unrecognized, septic shock can develop, leading to organ dysfunction and potential death. Maternal early warning tools have been designed to assist clinicians in recognizing early indications of illness. Through use of clinical pathway-specific tools, disease processes may be detected early, subsequently benefitting patients with aggressive treatment management and intervention.This article is the second in a series of three that discuss the importance of sepsis and septic shock in pregnancy. Risk factors, causes of sepsis, signs and symptoms, and maternal early warning tools are discussed.

  16. Advanced driver assistance systems: Using multimodal redundant warnings to enhance road safety.

    PubMed

    Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Integrated SeismoGeodetic Systsem with High-Resolution, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observation For Earthquake Early Warning Application.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passmore, P. R.; Jackson, M.; Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Davidson, P.

    2014-12-01

    The key requirements for Earthquake Early Warning and other Rapid Event Notification Systems are: Quick delivery of digital data from a field station to the acquisition and processing center; Data integrity for real-time earthquake notification in order to provide warning prior to significant ground shaking in the given target area. These two requirements are met in the recently developed Trimble SG160-09 SeismoGeodetic System, which integrates both GNSS and acceleration measurements using the Kalman filter algorithm to create a new high-rate (200 sps), real-time displacement with sufficient accuracy and very low latency for rapid delivery of the acquired data to a processing center. The data acquisition algorithm in the SG160-09 System provides output of both acceleration and displacement digital data with 0.2 sec delay. This is a significant reduction in the time interval required for real-time transmission compared to data delivery algorithms available in digitizers currently used in other Earthquake Early Warning networks. Both acceleration and displacement data are recorded and transmitted to the processing site in a specially developed Multiplexed Recording Format (MRF) that minimizes the bandwidth required for real-time data transmission. In addition, a built in algorithm calculates the τc and Pd once the event is declared. The SG160-09 System keeps track of what data has not been acknowledged and re-transmits the data giving priority to current data. Modified REF TEK Protocol Daemon (RTPD) receives the digital data and acknowledges data received without error. It forwards this "good" data to processing clients of various real-time data processing software including Earthworm and SeisComP3. The processing clients cache packets when a data gap occurs due to a dropped packet or network outage. The cache packet time is settable, but should not exceed 0.5 sec in the Earthquake Early Warning network configuration. The rapid data transmission algorithm was tested

  18. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  19. Real-time detection, quantification, warning, and control of epileptic seizures: the foundations for a scientific epileptology.

    PubMed

    Osorio, I; Frei, M G

    2009-11-01

    Substantive advances in clinical epileptology may be realized through the judicious use of real-time automated seizure detection, quantification, warning, and delivery of therapy in subjects with pharmacoresistant seizures. Materialization of these objectives is likely to elevate epileptology to the level of a mature clinical science.

  20. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  1. Effect of directional speech warnings on road hazard detection.

    PubMed

    Serrano, Jesús; Di Stasi, Leandro L; Megías, Alberto; Catena, Andrés

    2011-12-01

    In the last 2 decades, cognitive science and the transportation psychology field have dedicated a lot of effort to designing advanced driver support systems. Verbal warning systems are increasingly being implemented in modern automobiles in an effort to increase road safety. The study presented here investigated the impact of directional speech alert messages on the participants' speed to judge whether or not naturalistic road scenes depicted a situation of impending danger. Thirty-eight volunteers performed a computer-based key-press reaction time task. Findings indicated that semantic content of verbal warning signals can be used for increasing driving safety and improving hazard detection. Furthermore, the classical result regarding signal accuracy is confirmed: directional informative speech messages lead to faster hazard detection compared to drivers who received a high rate of false alarms. Notwithstanding some study limitations (lack of driver experience and low ecological validity), this evidence could provide important information for the specification of future Human-Machine-interaction (HMI) design guidelines.

  2. Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and

  3. Believability of Cigarette Warnings About Addiction: National Experiments of Adolescents and Adults.

    PubMed

    Lazard, Allison J; Kowitt, Sarah D; Huang, Li-Ling; Noar, Seth M; Jarman, Kristen L; Goldstein, Adam O

    2018-06-07

    We conducted two experiments to examine the believability of three addiction-focused cigarette warnings and the influence of message source on believability among adolescents and adults in the United States. Experimental data were collected using national phone surveys of adolescents (age 13-17; n = 1125; response rate, 66%) and adults (age 18+; n = 5014; response rate, 42%). We assessed the believability of three cigarette warnings about addiction attributed to four message sources (Food and Drug Administration [FDA], Surgeon General, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], no source). The majority of adolescents and adults reported the three cigarette warnings were very believable (49%-81% for adolescents; 47%-76% for adults). We found four to five times higher odds of adolescents believing a warning that cigarettes are addictive (warning 1) or that nicotine was an addictive chemical (warning 2) compared to a warning that differentiated the addictive risks of menthol versus traditional cigarettes (warning 3), warning 1 adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 4.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.10, 6.63; warning 2 aOR: 3.87, 95% CI: 2.70, 5.50. Similarly, we found three to five times higher odds of adults (including current smokers) believing the same warnings, warning 1 aOR: 3.74, 95% CI: 2.82, 4.95; warning 2 aOR: 3.24, 95% CI: 2.45, 4.28. Message source had no overall impact on the believability of warnings for either population. Our findings support the implementation of FDA's required warnings that cigarettes are addictive and that nicotine is an addictive chemical. These believable warnings may deter adolescents from initiating smoking and encourage adults to quit smoking. This article describes, for the first time, the believability of different cigarette warnings about addiction. We now know that the majority of adolescents and adults believe cigarette warnings that highlight cigarettes as addictive and that nicotine is an addictive chemical in tobacco

  4. Landslide susceptibility and early warning model for shallow landslide in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Chun-Ming; Wei, Lun-Wei; Chi, Chun-Chi; Chang, Kan-Tsun; Lee, Chyi-Tyi

    2017-04-01

    This study aims to development a regional susceptibility model and warning threshold as well as the establishment of early warning system in order to prevent and reduce the losses caused by rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Taiwan. For the purpose of practical application, Taiwan is divided into nearly 185,000 slope units. The susceptibility and warning threshold of each slope unit were analyzed as basic information for disaster prevention. The geological characteristics, mechanism and the occurrence time of landslides were recorded for more than 900 cases through field investigation and interview of residents in order to discuss the relationship between landslides and rainfall. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the landslide susceptibility and an I3-R24 rainfall threshold model was proposed for the early warning of landslides. The validations of recent landslide cases show that the model was suitable for the warning of regional shallow landslide and most of the cases can be warned 3 to 6 hours in advanced. We also propose a slope unit area weighted method to establish local rainfall threshold on landslide for vulnerable villages in order to improve the practical application. Validations of the local rainfall threshold also show a good agreement to the occurrence time reported by newspapers. Finally, a web based "Rainfall-induced Landslide Early Warning System" is built and connected to real-time radar rainfall data so that landslide real-time warning can be achieved. Keywords: landslide, susceptibility analysis, rainfall threshold

  5. Tobacco industry interference for pictorial warnings.

    PubMed

    Oswal, K C; Pednekar, M S; Gupta, P C

    2010-07-01

    A study was carried out to understand the process of interference by the tobacco industry, to measure the compliance of the industry for displaying pictorial warnings on a tobacco product as per the packaging and labeling rules post 31st May, 2009, and to understand the public opinion on the messages conveyed through such warnings. A total of 60 samples of tobacco products were purchased after 31 May, 2009, from the retail vendors of tobacco sellers across the country. The government of India has from time to time, taken measures, including legislations, to control tobacco consumption. The actual implementation of these rules has been postponed repeatedly, apparently because of constant pressure exerted by the tobacco industry. The skull and bone sign hurting religious sentiments as stated by the group of ministers proved to be misleading. Later the Group of Ministers (GOM) proposed three very weak and poorly communicative pictorial health warnings to replace those recommended by the Union Health Ministry based on the inputs of the Department of Audio Visual Publicity (DAVP). The industry tried to use strategic means by displaying a dull, diluted, and watered down pictorial warning. The focus group study conducted showed that a scorpion gets associated with the product in a non-scientific manner. X-ray of the lung was hardly understood by anybody. Overall the tobacco industry has constantly flouted with the law right from the policy level to its implementation by displaying dull, diluted, and poorly informed pictorial warnings.

  6. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    PubMed Central

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  7. Validation of Essential Acoustic Parameters for Highly Urgent In-Vehicle Collision Warnings.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Bridget A; Eisert, Jesse L; Baldwin, Carryl L

    2018-03-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to validate the importance of key acoustic criteria for use as in-vehicle forward collision warning (FCW) systems. Background Despite recent advances in vehicle safety, automobile crashes remain one of the leading causes of death. As automation allows for more control of noncritical functions by the vehicle, the potential for disengagement and distraction from the driving task also increases. It is, therefore, as important as ever that in-vehicle safety-critical interfaces are intuitive and unambiguous, promoting effective collision avoidance responses upon first exposure even under divided-attention conditions. Method The current study used a driving simulator to assess the effectiveness of two warnings, one that met all essential acoustic parameters, one that met only some essential parameters, and a no-warning control in the context of a lead vehicle-following task in conjunction with a cognitive distractor task and collision event. Results Participants receiving an FCW comprising five essential acoustic components had improved collision avoidance responses relative to a no-warning condition and an FCW missing essential elements on their first exposure. Responses to a consistently good warning (GMU Prime) improved with subsequent exposures, whereas continued exposure to the less optimal FCW (GMU Sub-Prime) resulted in poorer performance even relative to receiving no warning at all. Conclusions This study provides support for previous warning design studies and for the validity of five key acoustic parameters essential for the design of effective in-vehicle FCWs. Application Results from this study have implications for the design of auditory FCWs and in-vehicle display design.

  8. Real time remote monitoring and pre-warning system for Highway landslide in mountain area.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yonghui; Li, Hongxu; Sheng, Qian; Wu, Kai; Chen, Guoliang

    2011-06-01

    The wire-pulling trigger displacement meter with precision of 1 mm and the grid pluviometer with precision of 0.1 mm are used to monitor the surface displacement and rainfall for Highway slope, and the measured data are transferred to the remote computer in real time by general packet radio service (GPRS) net of China telecom. The wire-pulling trigger displacement meter, grid pluviometer, data acquisition and transmission unit, and solar power supply device are integrated to form a comprehensive monitoring hardware system for Highway landslide in mountain area, which proven to be economical, energy-saving, automatic and high efficient. Meantime, based on the map and geographic information system (MAPGIS) platform, the software system is also developed for three dimensional (3D) geology modeling and visualization, data inquiring and drawing, stability calculation, displacement forecasting, and real time pre-warning. Moreover, the pre-warning methods based on monitoring displacement and rainfall are discussed. The monitoring and forecasting system for Highway landslide has been successfully applied in engineering practice to provide security for Highway transportation and construction and reduce environment disruption. Copyright © 2011 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

  10. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  11. Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

    2011-11-01

    Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated

  12. Augmented reality warnings in vehicles: Effects of modality and specificity on effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Schwarz, Felix; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    In the future, vehicles will be able to warn drivers of hidden dangers before they are visible. Specific warning information about these hazards could improve drivers' reactions and the warning effectiveness, but could also impair them, for example, by additional cognitive-processing costs. In a driving simulator study with 88 participants, we investigated the effects of modality (auditory vs. visual) and specificity (low vs. high) on warning effectiveness. For the specific warnings, we used augmented reality as an advanced technology to display the additional auditory or visual warning information. Part one of the study concentrates on the effectiveness of necessary warnings and part two on the drivers' compliance despite false alarms. For the first warning scenario, we found several positive main effects of specificity. However, subsequent effects of specificity were moderated by the modality of the warnings. The specific visual warnings were observed to have advantages over the three other warning designs concerning gaze and braking reaction times, passing speeds and collision rates. Besides the true alarms, braking reaction times as well as subjective evaluation after these warnings were still improved despite false alarms. The specific auditory warnings were revealed to have only a few advantages, but also several disadvantages. The results further indicate that the exact coding of additional information, beyond its mere amount and modality, plays an important role. Moreover, the observed advantages of the specific visual warnings highlight the potential benefit of augmented reality coding to improve future collision warnings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Storm Warnings for Cuba

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-01-01

    Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet : order@rand.org. al Accesion For "Ni %&’ Storm WarningsDTI’ TAB E03 --- - - -for...reaction leading to an uncontrol- lable burgeoning of private entrepreneurial activity. As one observer 14See Acuerdo del Buro Politico , "Para llevar a...34 10Comisi6n de Relaciones Internacionales, Asamblea Nacional del Poder Popular, Datos, Reflexiones y Argumentos Sobre la Actual Situaci6n de Cuba, n.p

  14. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

  15. Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hupp, Ryan; DeWald, Spencer; Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

    2015-01-01

    Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

  16. COMMUNICATING RISK IN THE CONTEXT OF METHADONE FORMULATION CHANGES: A QUALITATIVE STUDY OF OVERDOSE WARNING POSTERS IN VANCOUVER, CANADA

    PubMed Central

    Markwick, Nicole; McNeil, Ryan; Anderson, Solanna; Small, Will; Kerr, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND British Columbia, Canada’s provincial methadone program recently replaced their existing methadone formulation with a formulation ten times more concentrated. The transition raised concerns about heightened risk of accidental overdose, leading two organizations to disseminate methadone overdose warning posters during the transitional period. This study explores people who use drugs’ (PWUD) perceptions of these warning posters. METHODS Qualitative interviews were conducted with thirty-four PWUD enrolled in methadone maintenance treatment in Vancouver. Participants were recruited from ongoing cohort studies of drug-using individuals. Interview transcripts were analyzed thematically, focusing on participants’ perceptions of the warning posters and potential impacts on drug-related risks. RESULTS Overdose warning posters constituted a key source of information about the methadone formulation change, but did not provide adequate information for all participants. Participants articulated a preference for descriptive language, focusing on changes in concentration rather than “strength”, and universal hazard symbols to effectively communicate overdose risks. CONCLUSION Participants indicated that warnings employing descriptive language more effectively communicated risk of methadone overdose. Future overdose warnings for drug-using populations must provide adequate information for the intended audience, and be communicated to PWUD through multiple channels. PMID:26644025

  17. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and USPTO Rules of Professional Conduct...

  18. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  19. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  20. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and USPTO Rules of Professional Conduct...

  1. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  2. Incorporating Geodectic Processing Modules into a Real-Time Earthworm Environment to Enhance NOAA's Tsunami Warning Capability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macpherson, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National and Pacific Tsunami Warning Centers currently rely on traditional seismic data in order to detect and evaluate potential tsunamigenic earthquakes anywhere on the globe. The first information products disseminated by the centers following a significant seismic event are based solely on seismically-derived earthquake locations and magnitudes, and are issued within minutes of the earthquake origin time. Thus, the rapid and reliable determination of the earthquake magnitude is a critical piece of information needed by the centers to generate the appropriate alert levels. However, seismically-derived magnitudes of large events are plagued by well-known problems, particularly during the first few minutes following the origin time; near-source broad-band instruments may go off scale, and magnitudes tend to saturate until sufficient teleseismic data arrive to represent the long-period signal that characterizes large events. However, geodetic data such as high-rate Global Positioning System (hGPS) displacements and seismogeodetic data that is a combination of collocated hGPS and accelerometer data do not suffer from these limitations. These sensors stay on scale, even for large events, and they record both dynamic and static displacements that may be used to estimate magnitude without saturation. Therefore, there is an ongoing effort to incorporate these data streams into the operations of the tsunami warning centers to enhance current magnitude determination capabilities, and eventually, to invert the geodetic displacements for mechanism and finite-fault information. These later quantities will be useful for tsunami modeling and forecasting. The tsunami warning centers rely on the Earthworm system for real-time data acquisition, so we have developed Earthworm modules for the Magnitude from Peak Ground Displacement (MPGD) algorithm, developed at the University of Washington and the University of California

  3. Harnessing Vehicle-to-Pedestrian (V2P) Communication Technology: Sending Traffic Warnings to Texting Pedestrians.

    PubMed

    Rahimian, Pooya; O'Neal, Elizabeth E; Zhou, Shiwen; Plumert, Jodie M; Kearney, Joseph K

    2018-06-01

    We examined how sending mobile-device warnings to texting pedestrians when they initiate an unsafe road crossing influences their decisions and actions. Pedestrian texting has been identified as a key risk factor in pedestrian-vehicle collisions. Advances in sensing and communications technology offer the possibility of providing pedestrians with information about traffic conditions to assist them in safely crossing traffic-filled roadways. However, it is unclear how this information can be most effectively communicated to pedestrians. We examined how texting and nontexting pedestrians crossed roads with continuous traffic in a large-screen, immersive pedestrian simulator using a between-subjects design with three conditions: texting, warning, and control. Texting participants in the warning condition received an alarm on their cell phone when they began to cross a dangerously small gap. The results demonstrate the detrimental influence of texting on pedestrians' gap selection, movement timing, and gaze behavior, and show the potential of warnings to improve decision making and safety. However, the results also reveal the limits of warning texting participants once they initiate a crossing and possible overreliance on technology that may lead to reduced situation awareness. Mobile devices and short-range communication technologies offer enormous potential to assist pedestrians, but further study is needed to better understand how to provide useful information in a timely manner. The technology for communicating traffic information to pedestrians via mobile devices is on the horizon. Research on how such information influences all aspects of pedestrian behavior is critical to developing effective solutions.

  4. An analysis of legal warnings after drug approval in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Sriphiromya, Pakawadee; Theeraroungchaisri, Anuchai

    2015-02-01

    Drug risk management has many tools for minimizing risk and black-boxed warnings (BBWs) are one of those tools. Some serious adverse drug reactions (ADRs) emerge only after a drug is marketed and used in a larger population. In Thailand, additional legal warnings after drug approval, in the form of black-boxed warnings, may be applied. Review of their characteristics can assist in the development of effective risk mitigation. This study was a cross sectional review of all legal warnings imposed in Thailand after drug approval (2003-2012). Any boxed warnings for biological products and revised warnings which were not related to safety were excluded. Nine legal warnings were evaluated. Seven related to drugs classes and two to individual drugs. The warnings involved four main types of predictable ADRs: drug-disease interactions, side effects, overdose and drug-drug interactions. The average time from first ADRs reported to legal warnings implementation was 12 years. The triggers were from both safety signals in Thailand and regulatory measures in other countries outside Thailand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels Are Not Created Equal: They Can Increase or Decrease Smokers' Quit Intentions Relative to Text-Only Warnings.

    PubMed

    Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Romer, Daniel; Tusler, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Cigarette graphic-warning labels elicit negative emotion. Research suggests negative emotion drives greater risk perceptions and quit intentions through multiple processes. The present research compares text-only warning effectiveness to that of graphic warnings eliciting more or less negative emotion. Nationally representative online panels of 736 adult smokers and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers were randomly assigned to view one of three warning types (text-only, text with low-emotion images, or text with high-emotion images) four times over 2 weeks. Participants recorded their emotional reaction to the warnings (measured as arousal), smoking risk perceptions, and quit intentions. Primary analyses used structural equation modeling. Participants in the high-emotion condition reported greater emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = 0.21; bTeen = 0.27, p's < .004); those in the low-emotion condition reported lower emotional reaction than text-only participants (bAdult = -0.18; bTeen = -0.22, p's < .018). Stronger emotional reaction was associated with increased risk perceptions in both samples (bAdult = 0.66; bTeen = 0.85, p's < .001) and greater quit intentions among adults (bAdult = 1.00, p < .001). Compared to text-only warnings, low-emotion warnings were associated with reduced risk perceptions and quit intentions whereas high-emotion warnings were associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions. Warning labels with images that elicit more negative emotional reaction are associated with increased risk perceptions and quit intentions in adults and teens relative to text-only warnings. However, graphic warnings containing images which evoke little emotional reaction can backfire and reduce risk perceptions and quit intentions versus text-only warnings. This research is the first to directly manipulate two emotion levels in sets of nine cigarette graphic warning images and compare them with text-only warnings. Among adult and

  6. Changing skewness: an early warning signal of regime shifts in ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guttal, Vishwesha; Jayaprakash, Ciriyam

    2008-05-01

    Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring.

  7. Warning Signs After Birth

    MedlinePlus

    ... Home > Pregnancy > Postpartum care > Warning signs after birth Warning signs after birth E-mail to a friend ... breast infection Postpartum bleeding Postpartum depression (PPD) What warning signs should you look for? Call your provider ...

  8. Windshear warning aerospatiale approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bonafe, J. L.

    1988-01-01

    Vugraphs and transcribed remarks of a presentation on Aerospatiale's approach to windshear warning systems are given. Information is given on low altitude wind shear probability, wind shear warning models and warning system false alarms.

  9. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  10. Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

    2018-05-01

    Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

  11. Emergency warning for people with disabilities.

    PubMed

    Putkovich, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The intent of this article is to assess the current state of Emergency Warning capabilities in the United States and make recommendations on what needs to be done to cost effectively establish a National Emergency Warning System to best serve the people of the United States, including those with disabilities. As part of this assessment, terminology will be defined, existing systems will be examined, critical needs and functions will be explained, and recommendations made for a system to deliver emergency messages to those people immediately at risk from natural and human-caused disasters in a timely and effective manner, regardless of location or situational circumstance. The assessment will include the needs and available technologies for delivering emergency warnings to people with disabilities, which are generally little understood, poorly addressed, and often ignored.

  12. Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

    2013-12-01

    In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

  13. Does Size Impact Attention and Recall of Graphic Health Warnings?

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Elizabeth G.; Shoben, Abigail B.; Krygowski, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Rao, Unnava; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the attention paid to larger sizes of graphic health warnings (GHWs) embedded within cigarette advertisements so as to assess their impacts on rural smokers. Methods Daily smokers (N = 298) were randomly assigned to view a cigarette advertisement with 3 conditions: 2 intervention conditions with GHW comprising 20% or 33% of the ad area, or a text-only control. Eye-tracking software measured attention in milliseconds. Binary outcome mediation was conducted. Results Intervention participants spent 24% of their time viewing the GHWs, compared to 10% for control (p < .01). The odds of GHW recall in the combined (20% and 33%) intervention group were 3.3 times higher than controls. Total dwell time mediated 33% of the effect of the graphic condition on any recall. Conclusions GHWs in 20% of cigarette advertisement space attracted significantly more attention than text-only warnings; larger GHWs did not increase attention. Attention was significantly associated with warning recall; total time viewing mediated warning recall. Tobacco ads should include GHWs to attract the attention of smokers. PMID:26550583

  14. Does Size Impact Attention and Recall of Graphic Health Warnings?

    PubMed

    Klein, Elizabeth G; Shoben, Abigail B; Krygowski, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Rao, Unnava; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2015-07-01

    To evaluate the attention paid to larger sizes of graphic health warnings (GHWs) embedded within cigarette advertisements so as to assess their impacts on rural smokers. Daily smokers (N = 298) were randomly assigned to view a cigarette advertisement with 3 conditions: 2 intervention conditions with GHW comprising 20% or 33% of the ad area, or a text-only control. Eye-tracking software measured attention in milliseconds. Binary outcome mediation was conducted. Intervention participants spent 24% of their time viewing the GHWs, compared to 10% for control (p < .01). The odds of GHW recall in the combined (20% and 33%) intervention group were 3.3 times higher than controls. Total dwell time mediated 33% of the effect of the graphic condition on any recall. GHWs in 20% of cigarette advertisement space attracted significantly more attention than text-only warnings; larger GHWs did not increase attention. Attention was significantly associated with warning recall; total time viewing mediated warning recall. Tobacco ads should include GHWs to attract the attention of smokers.

  15. Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of

  16. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

    2015-01-01

    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  17. Drug safety and the impact of drug warnings: An interrupted time series analysis of diabetes drug prescriptions in Germany and Denmark.

    PubMed

    Hostenkamp, Gisela; Fischer, Katharina Elisabeth; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2016-12-01

    To analyse the impact of drug safety warnings from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on drug utilisation and their interaction with information released through national reimbursement bodies. Insurance claims data on anti-diabetic drug prescriptions in primary care in Germany and Denmark were analysed using interrupted time series analysis, with EMA drug warnings for thiazolidinediones (TZDs) in 2007 and 2011 as the intervention. Monthly drug utilisation data per substance in defined daily dosages (DDD) consumed per 1000 insurees were retrieved from the Danish national drug prescriptions register and one large statutory sickness fund in Germany. TZDs were generally reimbursed in Germany but restricted to individual reimbursement in Denmark. Consequently, utilisation of TZDs was much higher in Germany in 2007 compared with Denmark. For rosiglitazone, the drug warning had a significant impact on utilisation, reducing the number of DDD per 1000 insurees per day by -0.0105 in Denmark and -0.0312 in Germany (p-values<0.05). For pioglitazone, neither of the drug warnings had a significant effect on utilisation. The impact of EMA drug warnings differed across countries and might be mediated by information released through national reimbursement bodies and physician associations. Increasing complexity of new drugs and modified approval procedures require a strengthening of information exchange between drug regulation bodies and physicians to ensure patient safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Development of wireless brain computer interface with embedded multitask scheduling and its application on real-time driver's drowsiness detection and warning.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chin-Teng; Chen, Yu-Chieh; Huang, Teng-Yi; Chiu, Tien-Ting; Ko, Li-Wei; Liang, Sheng-Fu; Hsieh, Hung-Yi; Hsu, Shang-Hwa; Duann, Jeng-Ren

    2008-05-01

    Biomedical signal monitoring systems have been rapidly advanced with electronic and information technologies in recent years. However, most of the existing physiological signal monitoring systems can only record the signals without the capability of automatic analysis. In this paper, we proposed a novel brain-computer interface (BCI) system that can acquire and analyze electroencephalogram (EEG) signals in real-time to monitor human physiological as well as cognitive states, and, in turn, provide warning signals to the users when needed. The BCI system consists of a four-channel biosignal acquisition/amplification module, a wireless transmission module, a dual-core signal processing unit, and a host system for display and storage. The embedded dual-core processing system with multitask scheduling capability was proposed to acquire and process the input EEG signals in real time. In addition, the wireless transmission module, which eliminates the inconvenience of wiring, can be switched between radio frequency (RF) and Bluetooth according to the transmission distance. Finally, the real-time EEG-based drowsiness monitoring and warning algorithms were implemented and integrated into the system to close the loop of the BCI system. The practical online testing demonstrates the feasibility of using the proposed system with the ability of real-time processing, automatic analysis, and online warning feedback in real-world operation and living environments.

  19. Probabilistic flood warning using grand ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Y.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wilson, M.; Freer, J.; McGregor, G.

    2009-04-01

    As the severity of floods increases, possibly due to climate and landuse change, there is urgent need for more effective and reliable warning systems. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. An ensemble of weather forecasts from one Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), when used on catchment hydrology, can provide improved early flood warning as some of the uncertainties can be quantified. EPS forecasts from a single weather centre only account for part of the uncertainties originating from initial conditions and stochastic physics. Other sources of uncertainties, including numerical implementations and/or data assimilation, can only be assessed if a grand ensemble of EPSs from different weather centres is used. When various models that produce EPS from different weather centres are aggregated, the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts can be better retained and accounted for. The availability of twelve global EPSs through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the design of an improved probabilistic flood forecasting framework. This work presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment. The upper reach of the River Severn catchment located in the Midlands Region of England is selected due to its abundant data for investigation and its relatively small size (4062 km2) (compared to the resolution of the NWPs). This choice was deliberate as we hypothesize that the uncertainty in the forcing of smaller catchments cannot be represented by a single EPS with a very limited number of ensemble members, but only through the variance given by a large number ensembles

  20. Children's response to a commercial back-up warning device.

    PubMed

    Sapien, R E; Widman Roux, J; Fullerton-Gleason, L

    2003-03-01

    To determine preschool children's response to a commercial back-up warning alarm in a mock setting of an automobile backing up. Preschool parking lot in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. With subjects acting as their own controls, 33 preschoolers were asked to walk behind a stationary vehicle twice. The first time, the control, no warning sound was emitted from the vehicle. The second time, the vehicle was placed in reverse gear triggering an alarm. Children's responses were recorded by a hidden video camera. Avoidance behavior by the child was considered a positive response. Location and distance to where the response occurred was measured. Thirty three children, 38-61 months, were studied. None responded to the alarm with avoidance behavior but 18 looked toward the vehicle or hesitated in their gait. Although over half of the children acknowledged the warning alarm, the device did not elicit avoidance behavior. Mere acknowledgment of the warning device would not prevent injury.

  1. Streamflow forecasts from WRF precipitation for flood early warning in mountain tropical areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogelis, María Carolina; Werner, Micha

    2018-02-01

    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are fundamental to extend forecast lead times beyond the concentration time of a watershed. Particularly for flash flood forecasting in tropical mountainous watersheds, forecast precipitation is required to provide timely warnings. This paper aims to assess the potential of NWP for flood early warning purposes, and the possible improvement that bias correction can provide, in a tropical mountainous area. The paper focuses on the comparison of streamflows obtained from the post-processed precipitation forecasts, particularly the comparison of ensemble forecasts and their potential in providing skilful flood forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to produce precipitation forecasts that are post-processed and used to drive a hydrologic model. Discharge forecasts obtained from the hydrological model are used to assess the skill of the WRF model. The results show that post-processed WRF precipitation adds value to the flood early warning system when compared to zero-precipitation forecasts, although the precipitation forecast used in this analysis showed little added value when compared to climatology. However, the reduction of biases obtained from the post-processed ensembles show the potential of this method and model to provide usable precipitation forecasts in tropical mountainous watersheds. The need for more detailed evaluation of the WRF model in the study area is highlighted, particularly the identification of the most suitable parameterisation, due to the inability of the model to adequately represent the convective precipitation found in the study area.

  2. Warning Signs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Our Children, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Presents various signs that may indicate emotional problems in children or teens, noting that if children exhibit any of the warning signs, it is important to talk to a doctor, counselor, or mental-health professional. The warning signs are categorized as things that trouble the child, things that limit the child, behavior problems, and sudden…

  3. Alcohol Warning Label Awareness and Attention: A Multi-method Study.

    PubMed

    Pham, Cuong; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Parkinson, Joy; Li, Shanshi

    2018-01-01

    Evaluation of alcohol warning labels requires careful consideration ensuring that research captures more than awareness given that labels may not be prominent enough to attract attention. This study investigates attention of current in market alcohol warning labels and examines whether attention can be enhanced through theoretically informed design. Attention scores obtained through self-report methods are compared to objective measures (eye-tracking). A multi-method experimental design was used delivering four conditions, namely control, colour, size and colour and size. The first study (n = 559) involved a self-report survey to measure attention. The second study (n = 87) utilized eye-tracking to measure fixation count and duration and time to first fixation. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was utilized. Eye-tracking identified that 60% of participants looked at the current in market alcohol warning label while 81% looked at the optimized design (larger and red). In line with observed attention self-reported attention increased for the optimized design. The current study casts doubt on dominant practices (largely self-report), which have been used to evaluate alcohol warning labels. Awareness cannot be used to assess warning label effectiveness in isolation in cases where attention does not occur 100% of the time. Mixed methods permit objective data collection methodologies to be triangulated with surveys to assess warning label effectiveness. Attention should be incorporated as a measure in warning label effectiveness evaluations. Colour and size changes to the existing Australian warning labels aided by theoretically informed design increased attention. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  4. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    system, limiting the time available for an EEW-based response (i.e., slowing or stopping trains). While EEW systems are currently being tested in California, the societal benefits may be even more pronounced in other earthquake-prone parts of the United States. In the central and eastern United States, strong ground motions are felt over significantly larger areas than in California, enabling both a larger area and longer lead times for warnings ahead of the arrival of strong shaking. Because these regions are less resistant to earthquake shaking, such warnings may be even more important for safety and emergency response. However, in many areas a significant increase in the instrumentation density would be required for EEW to become a reality. Although the details of EEW systems are specific to earthquakes, the operation of sensor networks, real-time data analysis, and rapid notification to lifelines is an emerging technology that can be used for real-time detection and early warning of other types of natural and human-caused disasters and emergencies.

  5. The impact of false warnings on partial and full lane departure warnings effectiveness and acceptance in car driving.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Jordan; Yousfi, Elsa; Deniel, Jonathan; Jallais, Christophe; Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra

    2016-12-01

    In the past, lane departure warnings (LDWs) were demonstrated to improve driving behaviours during lane departures but little is known about the effects of unreliable warnings. This experiment focused on the influence of false warnings alone or in combination with missed warnings and warning onset on assistance effectiveness and acceptance. Two assistance unreliability levels (33 and 17%) and two warning onsets (partial and full lane departure) were manipulated in order to investigate interaction. Results showed that assistance, regardless unreliability levels and warning onsets, improved driving behaviours during lane departure episodes and outside of these episodes by favouring better lane-keeping performances. Full lane departure and highly unreliable warnings, however, reduced assistance efficiency. Drivers' assistance acceptance was better for the most reliable warnings and for the subsequent warnings. The data indicate that imperfect LDWs (false warnings or false and missed warnings) further improve driving behaviours compared to no assistance. Practitioner Summary: This study revealed that imperfect lane departure warnings are able to significantly improve driving performances and that warning onset is a key element for assistance effectiveness and acceptance. The conclusion may be of particular interest for lane departure warning designers.

  6. Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

    2017-12-01

    A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

  7. Warnings unheeded: a history of child lead poisoning.

    PubMed Central

    Rabin, R

    1989-01-01

    Child lead poisoning has been a major public health issue only for the last 20-25 years. However, awareness that lead-based paint is a source of lead poisoning in children dates back to the first few years of the twentieth century. Articles in medical journals and textbooks appeared in the United States and elsewhere, recounting cases of children poisoned by the lead paint in their homes on woodwork, baby cribs, and other furniture. The number of positively diagnosed cases was limited both by the imprecision of diagnostic tools and physicians' lack of familiarity with the signs and symptoms of plumbism in children. Nevertheless, a number of hospitals and at least one large city health department recorded numerous cases of child lead poisoning in the 1920s and 1930s. The mounting evidence in those years made it clear that child lead poisoning was a serious public health hazard. And the activities and statements of the lead industry's representatives left little doubt that they were aware of the dangers of lead paint. Nevertheless, the lead paint companies continued to manufacture and sell their product well past 1940. Images FIGURE 1 PMID:2683817

  8. Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

    2017-01-01

    The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

  9. Testing warning messages on smokers’ cigarette packages: A standardized protocol

    PubMed Central

    Brewer, Noel T.; Hall, Marissa G.; Lee, Joseph G. L.; Peebles, Kathryn; Noar, Seth M.; Ribisl, Kurt M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Lab experiments on cigarette warnings typically use a brief one-time exposure that is not paired with the cigarette packs smokers use every day, leaving open the question of how repeated warning exposure over several weeks may affect smokers. This proof of principle study sought to develop a new protocol for testing cigarette warnings that better reflects real-world exposure by presenting them on cigarette smokers’ own packs. Methods We tested a cigarette pack labeling protocol with 76 US smokers ages 18 and older. We applied graphic warnings to the front and back of smokers’ cigarette packs. Results Most smokers reported that at least 75% of the packs of cigarettes they smoked during the study had our warnings. Nearly all said they would participate in the study again. Using cigarette packs with the study warnings increased quit intentions (p<.05). Conclusion Our findings suggest a feasible pack labeling protocol with six steps: (1) schedule appointments at brief intervals; (2) determine typical cigarette consumption; (3) ask smokers to bring a supply of cigarette packs to study appointments; (4) apply labels to smokers’ cigarette packs; (5) provide participation incentives at the end of appointments; and (6) refer smokers to cessation services at end of the study. When used in randomized controlled trials in settings with real-world message exposure over time, this protocol may help identify the true impact of warnings and thus better inform tobacco product labeling policy. PMID:25564282

  10. Local Tsunami Warnings using GNSS and Seismic Data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirshorn, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami warning Centers (TWC's) must issue warnings based on imperfect and limited data. Uncertainties increase in the near field, where a tsunami reaches the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake in a half hour or less. In the absence of a warning, the usual advice is "When the ground shakes so severely that it's difficult to stand, move uphill and away from the coast." But, what if the shaking is not severe? If, for example, the earthquake ruptures slowly (producing very little perceived shaking) this advice will fail. Unfortunately these "Tsunami" earthquakes are not rare: tsunamis from slow earthquakes off of Nicaragua in 1992, and Java in 1994 and 2006, killed 179, 250 and 637 people, respectively, even though very few nearby coastal residents felt any strong ground shaking. TWC's must therefore warn the closest coastal populations to the causative earthquake, where over 80% of the Tsunami based casualties typically occur, as soon possible after earthquake rupture begins. The NWS Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) currently issue local Tsunami Warnings for the US West Coast, Hawaii, and the Puerto Rico - Virgin Island region within 2-4 minutes after origin time. However, our initial short period Magnitude estimates saturate over about Mw 6.5, and Mwp underestimates Mw for events larger than about Mw 7.5 when using data in the 0 to 3 degree epicentral distance range, severely underestimating the danger of a potential Tsunami in the near field. Coastal GNSS networks complement seismic monitoring networks, and enable unsaturated estimates of Mw within 2-3 minutes of earthquake origin time. NASA/JPL, SIO, USGS, CWU, UCB and UW, with funding and guidance from NASA, and leveraging the USGS funded ShakeAlert development, have been working with the National Weather Service TWC's to incorporate real-time GNSS and seismogeodetic data into their operations. These data will soon provide unsaturated estimates of moment magnitude, Centroid Moment Tensor

  11. Responses to deceleration during car following: roles of optic flow, warnings, expectations, and interruptions.

    PubMed

    DeLucia, Patricia R; Tharanathan, Anand

    2009-12-01

    More than 25% of accidents are rear-end collisions. It is essential to identify the factors that contribute to such collisions. One such factor is a driver's ability to respond to the deceleration of the car ahead. In Experiment 1, we measured effects of optic flow information and discrete visual and auditory warnings (brake lights, tones) on responses to deceleration during car following. With computer simulations of car-following scenes, university students pressed a button when the lead car decelerated. Both classes of information affected responses. Observers relied on discrete warnings when optic flow information was relatively less effective as determined by the lead car's headway and deceleration rate. This is consistent with DeLucia's (2008) conceptual framework of space perception that emphasized the importance of viewing distance and motion (and task). In Experiment 2, we measured responses to deceleration after a visual interruption. Scenes were designed to tease apart the role of expectations and optic flow. Responses mostly were consistent with optic flow information presented after the interruption rather than with putative mental expectations that were set up by the lead car's motion prior to the interruption. The theoretical implication of the present results is that responses to deceleration are based on multiple sources of information, including optical size, optical expansion rate and tau, and discrete warnings that are independent of optic flow. The practical implication is that in-vehicle collision-avoidance warning systems may be more useful when optic flow is less effective (e.g., slow deceleration rates), implicating a role for adaptive collision-warning systems. Copyright 2009 APA

  12. Eye movement and brake reactions to real world brake-capacity forward collision warnings--a naturalistic driving study.

    PubMed

    Wege, Claudia; Will, Sebastian; Victor, Trent

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this field operational test study is to assess visual attention allocation and brake reactions in response to a brake-capacity forward collision warning (B-FCW), which is designed similarly to all forward collision warnings on the market for trucks. Truck drivers' reactions immediately after the warning (threat-period) as well as a few seconds after the warning (post-threat-recovery-period) are analyzed, both with and without taking into consideration the predictability of an event and driver distraction. A B-FCW system interface should immediately direct visual attention toward the threat and allow the driver to make a quick decision about whether or not to brake. To investigate eye movement reactions, we analyzed glances 30s before and 15s after 60 naturally occurring collision warning events. The B-FCW events were extracted from the Volvo euroFOT database, which contains data from 30 Volvo trucks driving for approximately 40000 h for four million kilometers. Statistical analyses show that a B-FCW leads to immediate attention allocation toward the roadway and drivers hit the brake. In addition to this intended effect during the threat-period, a rather unexpected effect within the post-threat-recovery-period was discovered in unpredictable events and events with distracted drivers. A few seconds after a warning is issued, eye movements are directed away from the road toward the warning source in the instrument cluster. This potentially indicates that the driver is seeking to understand the circumstances of the warning. Potential reasons for this are discussed: properties relating to the termination of the warning information, the position of the visual and/or audio warning, the conspicuity of the warning, the duration of the warning, and the modality of the warning. The present results are particularly valuable because all on-market collision warning systems in trucks (and almost all in cars) involve visual warnings positioned in the instrument

  13. Examining the conspicuousness and prominence of two required warnings on OTC pain relievers

    PubMed Central

    Bix, Laura; Bello, Nora M.; Auras, Rafael; Ranger, Jon; Lapinski, Maria K.

    2009-01-01

    The labeling of over-the-counter (OTC) drugs is critical to their safe and effective use, and certain warnings are meant to be read at the point of purchase (POP). Examples include (i) warnings that alert consumers to the fact that the package is not child-resistant and (ii) warnings that alert consumers to potential product tampering. U.S. law mandates these warnings be “conspicuous” and “prominent” so that it is likely that consumers will read them before leaving the store. Our objective was to quantify the relative prominence and conspicuousness of these warnings. Sixty-one participants reviewed the packages of 5 commercially available analgesics to evaluate the prominence and conspicuousness of these warnings. Evaluated data included (i) the time spent examining the warnings compared with other areas of the label (using a bright pupil eye tracker), (ii) the ability to recall information from the OTCs viewed, and (iii) the legibility of the warnings relative to other elements of the labels (as measured by ASTM D7298-06). Eye-tracking data indicated that warnings were viewed by fewer participants and for less time than other elements of the packages. Recall and legibility data also indicated that the warning statements compared unfavorably with other elements of the labels tested. Evidence presented in this study suggests that 2 required warnings on 5 different OTCs are not prominent or conspicuous when compared with other elements of tested labels. PMID:19332798

  14. The Age-related Positivity Effect and Tobacco Warning Labels

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, Megan E.; Peters, Ellen; Ferketich, Amy K.; Klein, Elizabeth G.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study tested whether age is a factor in viewing time for tobacco warning labels. The approach drew from previous work demonstrating an age-related positivity effect, whereby older adults show preferences toward positive and away from negative stimuli. Methods Participants were 295 daily smokers from Appalachian Ohio (age range: 21–68). All participants took part in an eye-tracking paradigm that captured the attention paid to elements of health warning labels in the context of magazine advertisements. Participants also reported on their past cessation attempts and their beliefs about the dangers of smoking. Results Consistent with theory on age-related positivity, older age predicted weaker beliefs about smoking risks, but only among those with no past-year quit attempts. In support of our primary hypothesis, older age was also related to a lower percentage of time spent viewing tobacco warning labels, both overall (text + image) and for the graphic image alone. These associations remained after controlling for cigarettes smoked per day. Conclusions Overall, findings suggest that age is an important consideration for the design of future graphic warning labels and other tobacco risk communications. For older adults, warning labels may need to be tailored to overcome the age-related positivity effect. PMID:27617273

  15. Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,

    1993-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

  16. Multiple Attribute Evaluation of Auditory Warning Signals for In-Vehicle Crash Avoidance Warning Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-11-01

    This research was directed at optimizing the auditory warnings that may be used in future crash avoidance warning applications. There is a need to standardize such warnings, so that they retain immediacy of meaning across various vehicles, situations...

  17. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

  18. The lower effectiveness of text-only health warnings in China compared to pictorial health warnings in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Elton-Marshall, Tara; Xu, Steve Shaowei; Meng, Gang; Quah, Anne C K; Sansone, Genevieve C; Feng, Guoze; Jiang, Yuan; Driezen, Pete; Omar, Maizurah; Awang, Rahmat; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2015-11-01

    In 2009, China changed its health warnings on cigarette packs from side-only text warnings to two text-only warnings on 30% of the bottom of the front and back of the pack. Also in 2009, Malaysia changed from similar text warnings to pictorial health warnings consistent with Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) Article 11 Guidelines. To measure the impact of the change in health warnings in China and to compare the text-only health warnings to the impact of the pictorial health warnings introduced in Malaysia. We measured changes in key indicators of warning effectiveness among a longitudinal cohort sample of smokers from Waves 1 to 3 (2006-2009) of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey and from Waves 3 to 4 (2008-2009) of the ITC Malaysia Survey. Each cohort consisted of representative samples of adult (≥18 years) smokers from six cities in China (n=6575) and from a national sample in Malaysia (n=2883). Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE) were used to examine the impact of the health warnings on subsequent changes in salience of warnings, cognitive and behavioural outcomes. Compared to Malaysia, the weak text-only warning labels in China led to a significant change in only two of six key indicators of health warning effectiveness: forgoing cigarettes and reading the warning labels. The change to pictorial health warnings in Malaysia led to significant and substantial increases in five of six indicators (noticing, reading, forgoing, avoiding, thinking about quitting). The delay in implementing pictorial health warnings in China constitutes a lost opportunity for increasing knowledge and awareness of the harms of cigarettes, and for motivating smokers to quit. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  19. Teaching Generalized Reading of Product Warning Labels to Young Adults with Autism Using the Constant Time Delay Procedure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dogoe, Maud S.; Banda, Devender R.; Lock, Robin H.; Feinstein, Rita

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the effectiveness of the constant timed delay procedure for teaching two young adults with autism to read, define, and state the contextual meaning of keywords on product warning labels of common household products. Training sessions were conducted in the dyad format using flash cards. Results indicated that both participants…

  20. An electrophysiological study of the impact of a Forward Collision Warning System in a simulator driving task.

    PubMed

    Bueno, Mercedes; Fabrigoule, Colette; Deleurence, Philippe; Ndiaye, Daniel; Fort, Alexandra

    2012-08-27

    Driver distraction has been identified as the most important contributing factor in rear-end collisions. In this context, Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) have been developed specifically to warn drivers of potential rear-end collisions. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of a surrogate FCWS and of its reliability according to the driver's attentional state by recording both behavioral and electrophysiological data. Participants drove following a lead motorcycle in a simplified simulator with or without a warning system which gave forewarning of the preceding vehicle braking. Participants had to perform this driving task either alone (simple task) or simultaneously with a secondary cognitive task (dual task). Behavioral and electrophysiological data contributed to revealing a positive effect of the warning system. Participants were faster in detecting the brake light when the system was perfect or imperfect, and the time and attentional resources allocation required for processing the target at higher cognitive level were reduced when the system was completely reliable. When both tasks were performed simultaneously, warning effectiveness was considerably affected at both performance and neural levels; however, the analysis of the brain activity revealed fewer differences between distracted and undistracted drivers when using the warning system. These results show that electrophysiological data could be a valuable tool to complement behavioral data and to have a better understanding of how these systems impact the driver. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Personal Cabin Pressure Monitor and Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zysko, Jan A. (Inventor)

    2002-01-01

    A cabin pressure altitude monitor and warning system provides a warning when a detected cabin pressure altitude has reached a predetermined level. The system is preferably embodied in a portable, pager-sized device that can be carried or worn by an individual. A microprocessor calculates the pressure altitude from signals generated by a calibrated pressure transducer and a temperature sensor that compensates for temperature variations in the signals generated by the pressure transducer. The microprocessor is programmed to generate a warning or alarm if a cabin pressure altitude exceeding a predetermined threshold is detected. Preferably, the microprocessor generates two different types of warning or alarm outputs, a first early warning or alert when a first pressure altitude is exceeded. and a second more serious alarm condition when either a second. higher pressure altitude is exceeded, or when the first pressure altitude has been exceeded for a predetermined period of time. Multiple types of alarm condition indicators are preferably provided, including visual, audible and tactile. The system is also preferably designed to detect gas concentrations and other ambient conditions, and thus incorporates other sensors, such as oxygen, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and ammonia sensors, to provide a more complete characterization and monitoring of the local environment.

  2. Personal Cabin Pressure Monitor and Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zysko, Jan A.

    2002-09-01

    A cabin pressure altitude monitor and warning system provides a warning when a detected cabin pressure altitude has reached a predetermined level. The system is preferably embodied in a portable, pager-sized device that can be carried or worn by an individual. A microprocessor calculates the pressure altitude from signals generated by a calibrated pressure transducer and a temperature sensor that compensates for temperature variations in the signals generated by the pressure transducer. The microprocessor is programmed to generate a warning or alarm if a cabin pressure altitude exceeding a predetermined threshold is detected. Preferably, the microprocessor generates two different types of warning or alarm outputs, a first early warning or alert when a first pressure altitude is exceeded. and a second more serious alarm condition when either a second. higher pressure altitude is exceeded, or when the first pressure altitude has been exceeded for a predetermined period of time. Multiple types of alarm condition indicators are preferably provided, including visual, audible and tactile. The system is also preferably designed to detect gas concentrations and other ambient conditions, and thus incorporates other sensors, such as oxygen, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and ammonia sensors, to provide a more complete characterization and monitoring of the local environment.

  3. The 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa Earthquake, California: Observations from Real-time GPS-enhanced Earthquake Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johanson, I. A.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, progress has been made to demonstrate feasibility and benefits of including real-time GPS (rtGPS) in earthquake early warning and rapid response systems. While most concepts have yet to be integrated into operational environments, the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory is currently running an rtGPS based finite fault inversion scheme in true real-time, which is triggered by the seismic-based ShakeAlert system and then sends updated earthquake alerts to a test receiver. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) was online and responded to the 2014 Mw6.0 South Napa earthquake in California. We review G-larmS' performance during this event and for 13 aftershocks, and we present rtGPS observations and real-time modeling results for the main shock. The first distributed slip model and a magnitude estimate of Mw5.5 were available 24 s after the event origin time, which could be reduced to 14 s after a bug fix (~8 s S-wave travel time, ~6 s data latency). The system continued to re-estimate the magnitude once every second: it increased to Mw5.9 3 s after the first alert and stabilized at Mw5.8 after 15 s. G-larmS' solutions for the subsequent small magnitude aftershocks demonstrate that Mw~6.0 is the current limit for alert updates to contribute back to the seismic-based early warning system.

  4. How NOAA/DSCOVR Will Perform during Extreme Space Weather and Why Lead Time Exceeds Expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biesecker, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    The NOAA/DSCOVR satellite is expected to launch in January, 2015 and replace the NASA/ACE satellite as the L1 Sentinel in early Summer, 2015. Having relied on ACE to provide critical warnings of geomagnetic storms since 1998, it is important for the space weather community to understand how DSCOVR will perform relative to ACE in real-time operations. The WIND/SWE instrument is sufficiently similar to the DSCOVR Faraday Cup that it can be used as a proxy for DSCOVR, with some caveats. We compare the ACE/SWEPAM and WIND/SWE observations for all geomagnetic storm events meeting the criteria of severe or extreme. We also examine time periods where ACE data were compromised by solar energetic particles. We find that DSCOVR will provide a more robust data stream than was provided by ACE during solar cycle 23. We will briefly address the magnetometer, supra-thermal particle measurements, and relativistic proton measurements provided by ACE, of which only the magnetometer is retained on DSCOVR. We also demonstrate that lead time for geomagnetic storm notifications to customers far exceeds the L1 to Earth delay time.

  5. Operational warning of interplanetary shock arrivals using energetic particle data from ACE: Real-time Upstream Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donegan, M.; Vandegriff, J.; Ho, G. C.; Julia, S. J.

    2004-12-01

    We report on an operational system which provides advance warning and predictions of arrival times at Earth of interplanetary (IP) shocks that originate at the Sun. The data stream used in our prediction algorithm is real-time and comes from the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument on NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. Since locally accelerated energetic storm particle (ESP) events accompany most IP shocks, their arrival can be predicted using ESP event signatures. We have previously reported on the development and implementation of an algorithm which recognizes the upstream particle signature of approaching IP shocks and provides estimated countdown predictions. A web-based system (see (http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RISP/index.html) combines this prediction capability with real-time ACE/EPAM data provided by the NOAA Space Environment Center. The most recent ACE data is continually processed and predictions of shock arrival time are updated every five minutes when an event is impending. An operational display is provided to indicate advisories and countdowns for the event. Running the algorithm on a test set of historical events, we obtain a median error of about 10 hours for predictions made 24-36 hours before actual shock arrival and about 6 hours when the shock is 6-12 hours away. This system can provide critical information to mission planners, satellite operations controllers, and scientists by providing significant lead-time for approaching events. Recently, we have made improvements to the triggering mechanism as well as re-training the neural network, and here we report prediction results from the latest system.

  6. A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W

    2014-07-01

    The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  7. Recent Efforts to Improve the Near Real Time Forest Disturbance Monitoring Capabilities of the ForWarn System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    This presentation discusses the development of anew method for computing NDVI temporal composites from near real time eMODIS data This research is being conducted to improve forest change products used in the ForWarn system for monitoring regional forest disturbances in the United States. ForWarn provides nation-wide NDVI-based forest disturbance detection products that are refreshed every 8 days. Current eMODIS and historical MOD13 24 day NDVI data are used to compute the disturbance detection products. The eMODIS 24 day NDVI data re-aggregated from 7 day NDVI products. The 24 day eMODIS NDVIs are generally cloud free, but do not necessarily use the freshest quality data. To shorten the disturbance detection time, a method has been developed that performs adaptive length/maximum value compositing of eMODIS NDVI, along with cloud and shadow "noise" mitigation. Tests indicate that this method can reduce detection rates by 8-16 days for known recent disturbance events, depending on the cloud frequencies and disturbance type. The noise mitigation in these tests, though imperfect, helped to improve quality of the resulting NDVI and forest change products.

  8. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2016-01-01

    A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  9. Assessing the Applicability of Earthquake Early Warning in Nicaragua.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massin, F.; Clinton, J. F.; Behr, Y.; Strauch, W.; Cauzzi, C.; Boese, M.; Talavera, E.; Tenorio, V.; Ramirez, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nicaragua, like much of Central America, suffers from frequent damaging earthquakes (6 M7+ earthquakes occurred in the last 100 years). Thrust events occur at the Middle America Trench where the Cocos plate subducts by 72-81 mm/yr eastward beneath the Caribbean plate. Shallow crustal events occur on-shore, with potential extensive damage as demonstrated in 1972 by a M6.2 earthquake, 5 km beneath Managua. This seismotectonic setting is challenging for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) because the target events derive from both the offshore seismicity, with potentially large lead times but uncertain locations, and shallow seismicity in close proximity to densely urbanized areas, where an early warning would be short if available at all. Nevertheless, EEW could reduce Nicaragua's earthquake exposure. The Swiss Development and Cooperation Fund and the Nicaraguan Government have funded a collaboration between the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich and the Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER) in Managua to investigate and build a prototype EEW system for Nicaragua and the wider region. In this contribution, we present the potential of EEW to effectively alert Nicaragua and the neighbouring regions. We model alert time delays using all available seismic stations (existing and planned) in the region, as well as communication and processing delays (observed and optimal) to estimate current and potential performances of EEW alerts. Theoretical results are verified with the output from the Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3 (VS(SC3)). VS(SC3) is implemented in the INETER SeisComP3 system for real-time operation and as an offline instance, that simulates real-time operation, to record processing delays of playback events. We compare our results with similar studies for Europe, California and New Zealand. We further highlight current capabilities and challenges for providing EEW alerts in Nicaragua. We also discuss how combining different algorithms, like e.g. VS

  10. Synthesized speech rate and pitch effects on intelligibility of warning messages for pilots

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, C. A.; Marchionda-Frost, K.

    1984-01-01

    In civilian and military operations, a future threat-warning system with a voice display could warn pilots of other traffic, obstacles in the flight path, and/or terrain during low-altitude helicopter flights. The present study was conducted to learn whether speech rate and voice pitch of phoneme-synthesized speech affects pilot accuracy and response time to typical threat-warning messages. Helicopter pilots engaged in an attention-demanding flying task and listened for voice threat warnings presented in a background of simulated helicopter cockpit noise. Performance was measured by flying-task performance, threat-warning intelligibility, and response time. Pilot ratings were elicited for the different voice pitches and speech rates. Significant effects were obtained only for response time and for pilot ratings, both as a function of speech rate. For the few cases when pilots forgot to respond to a voice message, they remembered 90 percent of the messages accurately when queried for their response 8 to 10 sec later.

  11. Warning Signs of Childhood Emergencies

    MedlinePlus

    ... Health & Safety Tips » Warning Signs of Childhood Emergencies Warning Signs of Childhood Emergencies Because their bodies are ... if your child exhibits any of the following warning signs of a medical emergency: Any significant change ...

  12. Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

    2017-11-01

    Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

  13. Crash Warning Interface Metrics: Final Report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-08-01

    The Crash Warning Interface Metrics (CWIM) project addressed issues of the driver-vehicle interface (DVI) for Advanced Crash Warning Systems (ACWS). The focus was on identifying the effects of certain warning system features (e.g., warning modality) ...

  14. Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

    2017-05-01

    Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

  15. Emergency Warning Systems. Part 2. Warning Systems - Evaluation Guidelines.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-01

    ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASK AREA A WORK UNIT NUMBERS PRC Voorhees Work Unit 2234G 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 ___ 11. CONTROLLING ...different from Controlling Office) IS. SECURITY CLASS. (of this report) Unclassified 15a. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION...systems that control these warning systems are discussed. Test results of several warning systems are included along with a discussion of sound

  16. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2015-10-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  17. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  18. Avoidance of Cigarette Pack Health Warnings among Regular Cigarette Smokers

    PubMed Central

    Maynard, Olivia M.; Attwood, Angela; O’Brien, Laura; Brooks, Sabrina; Hedge, Craig; Leonards, Ute; Munafò, Marcus R.

    2016-01-01

    Background Previous research with adults and adolescents indicates that plain cigarette packs increase visual attention to health warnings among non-smokers and non-regular smokers, but not among regular smokers. This may be because regular smokers: 1) are familiar with the health warnings, 2) preferentially attend to branding, or 3) actively avoid health warnings. We sought to distinguish between these explanations using eye-tracking technology. Method A convenience sample of 30 adult dependant smokers were recruited to participate in an eye-tracking study. Participants viewed branded, plain and blank packs of cigarettes with familiar and unfamiliar health warnings. The number of fixations to health warnings and branding on the different pack types were recorded. Results Analysis of variance indicated that regular smokers were biased towards fixating the branding location rather than the health warning location on all three pack types (p < 0.002). This bias was smaller, but still evident, for blank packs, where smokers preferentially attended the blank region over the health warnings. Time-course analysis showed that for branded and plain packs, attention was preferentially directed to the branding location for the entire 10 seconds of the stimulus presentation, while for blank packs this occurred for the last 8 seconds of the stimulus presentation. Familiarity with health warnings had no effect on eye gaze location. Conclusion Smokers actively avoid cigarette pack health warnings, and this remains the case even in the absence of salient branding information. Smokers may have learned to divert their attention away from cigarette pack health warnings. These findings have policy implications for the design of health warning on cigarette packs. PMID:24485554

  19. Airlock caution and warning system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayfield, W. J.; Cork, L. Z.; Malchow, R. G.; Hornback, G. L.

    1972-01-01

    Caution and warning system, used to monitor performance and warn of hazards or out-of-limit conditions on space vehicles, may have application to aircraft and railway transit systems. System consists of caution and warning subsystem and emergency subsystem.

  20. Utility of warning signs in guiding admission and predicting severe disease in adult dengue

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The recommendation from the 2009 World Health Organization guidelines for managing dengue suggests that patients with any warning sign can be hospitalized for observation and management. We evaluated the utility of using warning signs to guide hospital admission and predict disease progression in adults. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study from January 2010 to September 2012. Daily demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from adult dengue patients. Warning signs were recorded. The proportion of admitted patients using current admission criteria and warning signs was compared. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of warning signs in predicting disease progression were also evaluated. Results Four hundred and ninety-nine patients with confirmed dengue were analyzed. Using warning signs instead of the current admission criteria will lead to a 44% and 31% increase in admission for DHF II-IV and SD cases respectively. The proportion of non-severe dengue cases which were admitted also increased by 32% for non DHF II-IV and 33% for non-SD cases. Absence of any warning signs had a NPV of 91%, 100% and 100% for DHF I-IV, DHF II-IV and SD. Of those who progressed to severe illness, 16.3% had warning signs on the same day while 51.3% had warning signs the day before developing severe illness, respectively. Conclusions Our findings demonstrated that patients without any warning signs can be managed safely with ambulatory care to reduce hospital resource burden. No single warning sign can independently predict disease progression. The window from onset of warning sign to severe illness in most cases was within one day. PMID:24152678

  1. Designing Fatigue Warning Systems: The perspective of professional drivers.

    PubMed

    Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Peng, Qijia; Li, Musen; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    Professional drivers have been characterized as experiencing heavy fatigue resulting from long driving time in their daily work. This study aimed to explore the potential demand of Fatigue Warning Systems (FWSs) among professional drivers as a means of reducing the danger of fatigue driving and to examine their opinions regarding the design of FWSs. Six focus groups with 35 participants and a questionnaire survey with 600 respondents were conducted among Chinese truck and taxi drivers to collect qualitative and quantitative data concerning the current situation of fatigue driving and opinions regarding the design of FWSs. The results revealed that both truck and taxi drivers had a positive attitude toward FWSs, and they hoped this system could not only monitor and warn them regarding their fatigue but also somewhat relieve their fatigue before they could stop and rest. As for warning signals, participants preferred auditory warnings, as opposed to visual, vibrotactile or electric stimuli. Interestingly, it was proposed that verbal warnings involving the information regarding consequences of fatigue driving or the wishes of drivers' family members would be more effective. Additionally, different warning patterns, including graded, single and continuous warnings, were discussed in the focus group. Finally, the participants proposed many other suggestions, as well as their concerns regarding FWSs, which will provide valuable information for companies who wish to develop FWSs for professional drivers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Early warning of orographically induced floods and landslides in Western Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leine, Ann-Live; Wang, Thea; Boje, Søren

    2017-04-01

    In Western Norway, landslides and debris flows are commonly initiated by short-term orographic rainfall or intensity peaks during a prolonged rainfall event. In recent years, the flood warning service in Norway has evolved from being solely a flood forecasting service to also integrating landslides into its early warning systems. As both floods and landslides are closely related to the same hydrometeorological processes, particularly in small catchments, there is a natural synergy between monitoring flood and landslide risk. The Norwegian Flood and Landslide Hazard Forecasting and Warning Service issues regional landslide hazard warnings based on hydrological models, threshold values, observations and weather forecasts. Intense rainfall events and/or orographic precipitation that, under certain topographic conditions, significantly increase the risk of debris avalanches and debris floods are lately receiving more research focus from the Norwegian warning service. Orographic precipitation is a common feature in W-Norway, when moist and relatively mild air arrives from the Atlantic. Steep mountain slopes covered by glacial till makes the region prone to landslides, as well as flooding. The operational early warning system in Norway requires constant improvement, especially with the enhanced number of intense rainfall events that occur in a warming climate. Here, we examine different cases of intense rainfall events which have lead to landslides and debris flows, as well as increased runoff in fast responding small catchments. The main objective is to increase the understanding of the hydrometeorological conditions related to these events, in order to make priorities for the future development of the warning service.

  3. Do larger graphic health warnings on standardised cigarette packs increase adolescents’ cognitive processing of consumer health information and beliefs about smoking-related harms?

    PubMed Central

    White, Victoria; Williams, Tahlia; Faulkner, Agatha; Wakefield, Melanie

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine the impact of plain packaging of cigarettes with enhanced graphic health warnings on Australian adolescents’ cognitive processing of warnings and awareness of different health consequences of smoking. Methods Cross-sectional school-based surveys conducted in 2011 (prior to introduction of standardised packaging, n=6338) and 2013 (7–12 months afterwards, n=5915). Students indicated frequency of attending to, reading, thinking or talking about warnings. Students viewed a list of diseases or health effects and were asked to indicate whether each was caused by smoking. Two—‘kidney and bladder cancer’ and ‘damages gums and teeth’—were new while the remainder had been promoted through previous health warnings and/or television campaigns. The 60% of students seeing a cigarette pack in previous 6 months in 2011 and 65% in 2013 form the sample for analysis. Changes in responses over time are examined. Results Awareness that smoking causes bladder cancer increased between 2011 and 2013 (p=0.002). There was high agreement with statements reflecting health effects featured in previous warnings or advertisements with little change over time. Exceptions to this were increases in the proportion agreeing that smoking was a leading cause of death (p<0.001) and causes blindness (p<0.001). The frequency of students reading, attending to, thinking or talking about the health warnings on cigarette packs did not change. Conclusions Acknowledgement of negative health effects of smoking among Australian adolescents remains high. Apart from increased awareness of bladder cancer, new requirements for packaging and health warnings did not increase adolescents’ cognitive processing of warning information. PMID:28407612

  4. Tsunami warnings: Understanding in Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M.; Swanson, D.A.; Yanagi, B.S.

    2007-01-01

    The devastating southeast Asian tsunami of December 26, 2004 has brought home the destructive consequences of coastal hazards in an absence of effective warning systems. Since the 1946 tsunami that destroyed much of Hilo, Hawai'i, a network of pole mounted sirens has been used to provide an early public alert of future tsunamis. However, studies in the 1960s showed that understanding of the meaning of siren soundings was very low and that ambiguity in understanding had contributed to fatalities in the 1960 tsunami that again destroyed much of Hilo. The Hawaiian public has since been exposed to monthly tests of the sirens for more than 25 years and descriptions of the system have been widely published in telephone books for at least 45 years. However, currently there remains some uncertainty in the level of public understanding of the sirens and their implications for behavioral response. Here, we show from recent surveys of Hawai'i residents that awareness of the siren tests and test frequency is high, but these factors do not equate with increased understanding of the meaning of the siren, which remains disturbingly low (13%). Furthermore, the length of time people have lived in Hawai'i is not correlated systematically with understanding of the meaning of the sirens. An additional issue is that warning times for tsunamis gene rated locally in Hawai'i will be of the order of minutes to tens of minutes and limit the immediate utility of the sirens. Natural warning signs of such tsunamis may provide the earliest warning to residents. Analysis of a survey subgroup from Hilo suggests that awareness of natural signs is only moderate, and a majority may expect notification via alerts provided by official sources. We conclude that a major change is needed in tsunami education, even in Hawai'i, to increase public understanding of, and effective response to, both future official alerts and natural warning signs of future tsunamis. ?? Springer 2006.

  5. Unveiling the truth: warnings reduce the repetition-based truth effect.

    PubMed

    Nadarevic, Lena; Aßfalg, André

    2017-07-01

    Typically, people are more likely to consider a previously seen or heard statement as true compared to a novel statement. This repetition-based "truth effect" is thought to rely on fluency-truth attributions as the underlying cognitive mechanism. In two experiments, we tested the nature of the fluency-attribution mechanism by means of warning instructions, which informed participants about the truth effect and asked them to prevent it. In Experiment 1, we instructed warned participants to consider whether a statement had already been presented in the experiment to avoid the truth effect. However, warnings did not significantly reduce the truth effect. In Experiment 2, we introduced control questions and reminders to ensure that participants understood the warning instruction. This time, warning reduced, but did not eliminate the truth effect. Assuming that the truth effect relies on fluency-truth attributions, this finding suggests that warned participants could control their attributions but did not disregard fluency altogether when making truth judgments. Further, we found no evidence that participants overdiscount the influence of fluency on their truth judgments.

  6. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  7. Interagency Collaborators Develop and Implement ForWarn, a National, Near Real Time Forest Monitoring Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Underwood, Lauren

    2013-01-01

    ForWarn is a satellite-based forest monitoring tool that is being used to detect and monitor disturbances to forest conditions and forest health. It has been developed through the synergistic efforts, capabilities and contributions of four federal agencies, including the US Forest Service Eastern Forest and Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Centers, NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC), Department of Energy's (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and US Geological Survey Earth (USGS) Earth Research Observation System (EROS), as well as university partners, including the University of North Carolina Asheville's National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC). This multi-organizational partnership is key in producing a unique, path finding near real-time forest monitoring system that is now used by many federal, state and local government end-users. Such a system could not have been produced so effectively by any of these groups on their own. The forests of the United States provide many societal values and benefits, ranging from ecological, economic, cultural, to recreational. Therefore, providing a reliable and dependable forest and other wildland monitoring system is important to ensure the continued health, productivity, sustainability and prudent use of our Nation's forests and forest resources. ForWarn does this by producing current health indicator maps of our nation's forests based on satellite data from NASA's MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensors. Such a capability can provide noteworthy value, cost savings and significant impact at state and local government levels because at those levels of government, once disturbances are evident and cause negative impacts, a response must be carried out. The observations that a monitoring system like ForWarn provide, can also contribute to a much broader-scale understanding of vegetation disturbances.

  8. Contribution of National near Real Time MODIS Forest Maximum Percentage NDVI Change Products to the U.S. ForWarn System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip D.

    2012-01-01

    This presentation reviews the development, integration, and testing of Near Real Time (NRT) MODIS forest % maximum NDVI change products resident to the USDA Forest Service (USFS) ForWarn System. ForWarn is an Early Warning System (EWS) tool for detection and tracking of regionally evident forest change, which includes the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV) (a publically available on-line geospatial data viewer for visualizing and assessing the context of this apparent forest change). NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is working collaboratively with the USFS, ORNL, and USGS to contribute MODIS forest change products to ForWarn. These change products compare current NDVI derived from expedited eMODIS data, to historical NDVI products derived from MODIS MOD13 data. A new suite of forest change products are computed every 8 days and posted to the ForWarn system; this includes three different forest change products computed using three different historical baselines: 1) previous year; 2) previous three years; and 3) all previous years in the MODIS record going back to 2000. The change product inputs are maximum value NDVI that are composited across a 24 day interval and refreshed every 8 days so that resulting images for the conterminous U.S. are predominantly cloud-free yet still retain temporally relevant fresh information on changes in forest canopy greenness. These forest change products are computed at the native nominal resolution of the input reflectance bands at 231.66 meters, which equates to approx 5.4 hectares or 13.3 acres per pixel. The Time Series Product Tool, a MATLAB-based software package developed at NASA SSC, is used to temporally process, fuse, reduce noise, interpolate data voids, and re-aggregate the historical NDVI into 24 day composites, and then custom MATLAB scripts are used to temporally process the eMODIS NDVIs so that they are in synch with the historical NDVI products. Prior to posting, an in-house snow mask classification product

  9. Testing warning messages on smokers' cigarette packages: a standardised protocol.

    PubMed

    Brewer, Noel T; Hall, Marissa G; Lee, Joseph G L; Peebles, Kathryn; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M

    2016-03-01

    Lab experiments on cigarette warnings typically use a brief one-time exposure that is not paired with the cigarette packs smokers use every day, leaving open the question of how repeated warning exposure over several weeks may affect smokers. This proof of principle study sought to develop a new protocol for testing cigarette warnings that better reflects real-world exposure by presenting them on cigarette smokers' own packs. We tested a cigarette pack labelling protocol with 76 US smokers ages 18 and older. We applied graphic warnings to the front and back of smokers' cigarette packs. Most smokers reported that at least 75% of the packs of cigarettes they smoked during the study had our warnings. Nearly all said they would participate in the study again. Using cigarette packs with the study warnings increased quit intentions (p<0.05). Our findings suggest a feasible pack labelling protocol with six steps: (1) schedule appointments at brief intervals; (2) determine typical cigarette consumption; (3) ask smokers to bring a supply of cigarette packs to study appointments; (4) apply labels to smokers' cigarette packs; (5) provide participation incentives at the end of appointments; and (6) refer smokers to cessation services at end of the study. When used in randomised controlled trials in settings with real-world message exposure over time, this protocol may help identify the true impact of warnings and thus better inform tobacco product labelling policy. NCT02247908. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  10. 14 CFR 25.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Stall warning. 25.207 Section 25.207... STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 25.207 Stall warning. (a) Stall warning with... be clear and distinctive to the pilot in straight and turning flight. (b) The warning must be...

  11. 21 CFR 1141.10 - Required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Required warnings. 1141.10 Section 1141.10 Food... PRODUCTS CIGARETTE PACKAGE AND ADVERTISING WARNINGS Cigarette Package and Advertising Warnings § 1141.10 Required warnings. (a) Packages. (1) It shall be unlawful for any person to manufacture, package, sell...

  12. 14 CFR 25.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Stall warning. 25.207 Section 25.207... STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 25.207 Stall warning. (a) Stall warning with... be clear and distinctive to the pilot in straight and turning flight. (b) The warning must be...

  13. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning... four feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection...

  14. 14 CFR 25.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Stall warning. 25.207 Section 25.207... STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 25.207 Stall warning. (a) Stall warning with... be clear and distinctive to the pilot in straight and turning flight. (b) The warning must be...

  15. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning... four feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection...

  16. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning... four feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection...

  17. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning... four feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection...

  18. 30 CFR 57.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 57.14208 Section 57.14208... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning... four feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection...

  19. 21 CFR 1141.10 - Required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Required warnings. 1141.10 Section 1141.10 Food... PRODUCTS CIGARETTE PACKAGE AND ADVERTISING WARNINGS Cigarette Package and Advertising Warnings § 1141.10 Required warnings. (a) Packages—(1) It shall be unlawful for any person to manufacture, package, sell...

  20. 14 CFR 25.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Stall warning. 25.207 Section 25.207... STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 25.207 Stall warning. (a) Stall warning with... be clear and distinctive to the pilot in straight and turning flight. (b) The warning must be...

  1. 14 CFR 25.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Stall warning. 25.207 Section 25.207... STANDARDS: TRANSPORT CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 25.207 Stall warning. (a) Stall warning with... be clear and distinctive to the pilot in straight and turning flight. (b) The warning must be...

  2. Experimental evaluation of fog warning system.

    PubMed

    Al-Ghamdi, Ali S

    2007-11-01

    Highway safety is a major concern to the public and to transportation professionals, so the number of crashes caused by poor visibility due to fog form an alarming statistic. Drivers respond to poor visibility conditions in different ways: some slow down; others do not. Many drivers simply follow the taillights of the vehicle ahead. Accordingly, hazardous conditions are created in which speeds are both too high for the prevailing conditions and highly variable. Findings are presented from a study of traffic crashes due to fog in the southern region of Saudi Arabia. The primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of fog detection and warning system on driver behavior regarding speed and headway. This warning system includes visibility sensors that automatically activate a variable message sign that posts an advisory speed when hazardous conditions due to fog occur. The system was installed on a 2 km section of a two-lane, rural highway. A data set of 36,013 observations from both experimental and control sections at two study sites was collected and analyzed. The data included vehicle speed, volume, and classification; time headway, time of day, and visibility distance. Although the warning system was ineffective in reducing speed variability, mean speed throughout the experimental sections was reduced by about 6.5 kph. This reduction indicates that the warning system appeared to have a positive effect on driver behavior in fog even though the observed mean speeds were still higher than the posted advisory speed. From relationships found in the literature between mean driving speed and number of crashes, a speed reduction of only 5 kph would yield a 15% decrease in the number of crashes.

  3. Instructors' Use of Trigger Warnings and Behavior Warnings in Abnormal Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boysen, Guy A.; Wells, Anna Mae; Dawson, Kaylee J.

    2016-01-01

    College students have been increasingly demanding warnings and accommodations in relation to course topics they believe will elicit strong, negative emotions. These "trigger warnings" are highly relevant to Abnormal Psychology because of the sensitive topics covered in the course (e.g., suicide, trauma, sex). A survey of Abnormal…

  4. Dynamic Vibrotactile Signals for Forward Collision Avoidance Warning Systems

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Fanxing; Gray, Rob; Ho, Cristy; Ahtamad, Mujthaba

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Four experiments were conducted in order to assess the effectiveness of dynamic vibrotactile collision-warning signals in potentially enhancing safe driving. Background: Auditory neuroscience research has demonstrated that auditory signals that move toward a person are more salient than those that move away. If this looming effect were found to extend to the tactile modality, then it could be utilized in the context of in-car warning signal design. Method: The effectiveness of various vibrotactile warning signals was assessed using a simulated car-following task. The vibrotactile warning signals consisted of dynamic toward-/away-from-torso cues (Experiment 1), dynamic versus static vibrotactile cues (Experiment 2), looming-intensity- and constant-intensity-toward-torso cues (Experiment 3), and static cues presented on the hands or on the waist, having either a low or high vibration intensity (Experiment 4). Results: Braking reaction times (BRTs) were significantly faster for toward-torso as compared to away-from-torso cues (Experiments 1 and 2) and static cues (Experiment 2). This difference could not have been attributed to differential responses to signals delivered to different body parts (i.e., the waist vs. hands; Experiment 4). Embedding a looming-intensity signal into the toward-torso signal did not result in any additional BRT benefits (Experiment 3). Conclusion: Dynamic vibrotactile cues that feel as though they are approaching the torso can be used to communicate information concerning external events, resulting in a significantly faster reaction time to potential collisions. Application: Dynamic vibrotactile warning signals that move toward the body offer great potential for the design of future in-car collision-warning system. PMID:25850161

  5. 24 CFR 200.1505 - Warning letter.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Warning letter. 200.1505 Section... Lender Quality Assurance Enforcement § 200.1505 Warning letter. (a) In general. HUD may issue a warning letter, which specifies problems or violations identified by HUD, to a MAP lender. (b) Effect of warning...

  6. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall... feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection. Under...

  7. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall... feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection. Under...

  8. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall... feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection. Under...

  9. 24 CFR 200.1505 - Warning letter.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Warning letter. 200.1505 Section... Lender Quality Assurance Enforcement § 200.1505 Warning letter. (a) In general. HUD may issue a warning letter, which specifies problems or violations identified by HUD, to a MAP lender. (b) Effect of warning...

  10. 24 CFR 200.1505 - Warning letter.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Warning letter. 200.1505 Section... Lender Quality Assurance Enforcement § 200.1505 Warning letter. (a) In general. HUD may issue a warning letter, which specifies problems or violations identified by HUD, to a MAP lender. (b) Effect of warning...

  11. 24 CFR 200.1505 - Warning letter.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Warning letter. 200.1505 Section... Lender Quality Assurance Enforcement § 200.1505 Warning letter. (a) In general. HUD may issue a warning letter, which specifies problems or violations identified by HUD, to a MAP lender. (b) Effect of warning...

  12. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall... feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection. Under...

  13. 21 CFR 1141.10 - Required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Required warnings. 1141.10 Section 1141.10 Food... PRODUCTS CIGARETTE PACKAGE AND ADVERTISING WARNINGS; (Eff. 9-22-12) Cigarette Package and Advertising Warnings § 1141.10 Required warnings. (a) Packages—(1) It shall be unlawful for any person to manufacture...

  14. 24 CFR 200.1505 - Warning letter.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Warning letter. 200.1505 Section... Lender Quality Assurance Enforcement § 200.1505 Warning letter. (a) In general. HUD may issue a warning letter, which specifies problems or violations identified by HUD, to a MAP lender. (b) Effect of warning...

  15. 30 CFR 56.14208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning devices. 56.14208 Section 56.14208... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14208 Warning devices. (a) Visible warning devices shall... feet beyond the rear of the equipment shall have a warning flag at the end of the projection. Under...

  16. 47 CFR 3.71 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warnings. 3.71 Section 3.71 Telecommunication... MARITIME AND MARITIME MOBILE-SATELLITE RADIO SERVICES Enforcement § 3.71 Warnings. The Commission may issue written warnings or forfeitures to accounting authorities which are found not to be operating in...

  17. 47 CFR 3.71 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warnings. 3.71 Section 3.71 Telecommunication... MARITIME AND MARITIME MOBILE-SATELLITE RADIO SERVICES Enforcement § 3.71 Warnings. The Commission may issue written warnings or forfeitures to accounting authorities which are found not to be operating in...

  18. 47 CFR 3.71 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warnings. 3.71 Section 3.71 Telecommunication... MARITIME AND MARITIME MOBILE-SATELLITE RADIO SERVICES Enforcement § 3.71 Warnings. The Commission may issue written warnings or forfeitures to accounting authorities which are found not to be operating in...

  19. 47 CFR 3.71 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warnings. 3.71 Section 3.71 Telecommunication... MARITIME AND MARITIME MOBILE-SATELLITE RADIO SERVICES Enforcement § 3.71 Warnings. The Commission may issue written warnings or forfeitures to accounting authorities which are found not to be operating in...

  20. 47 CFR 3.71 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warnings. 3.71 Section 3.71 Telecommunication... MARITIME AND MARITIME MOBILE-SATELLITE RADIO SERVICES Enforcement § 3.71 Warnings. The Commission may issue written warnings or forfeitures to accounting authorities which are found not to be operating in...

  1. A web-based Tamsui River flood early-warning system with correction of real-time water stage using monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, H. Y.; Lin, Y. J.; Chang, H. K.; Shang, R. K.; Kuo, H. C.; Lai, J. S.; Tan, Y. C.

    2017-12-01

    Taiwan encounters heavy rainfalls frequently. There are three to four typhoons striking Taiwan every year. To provide lead time for reducing flood damage, this study attempt to build a flood early-warning system (FEWS) in Tanshui River using time series correction techniques. The predicted rainfall is used as the input for the rainfall-runoff model. Then, the discharges calculated by the rainfall-runoff model is converted to the 1-D river routing model. The 1-D river routing model will output the simulating water stages in 487 cross sections for the future 48-hr. The downstream water stage at the estuary in 1-D river routing model is provided by storm surge simulation. Next, the water stages of 487 cross sections are corrected by time series model such as autoregressive (AR) model using real-time water stage measurements to improve the predicted accuracy. The results of simulated water stages are displayed on a web-based platform. In addition, the models can be performed remotely by any users with web browsers through a user interface. The on-line video surveillance images, real-time monitoring water stages, and rainfalls can also be shown on this platform. If the simulated water stage exceeds the embankments of Tanshui River, the alerting lights of FEWS will be flashing on the screen. This platform runs periodically and automatically to generate the simulation graphic data of flood water stages for flood disaster prevention and decision making.

  2. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  3. Developing the Framework for an Early Warning System for Ebola based on Environmental Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dartevelle, Sebastien; Nguy-Robertson, Anthony; Bell, Jesse; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2017-04-01

    The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa indicated that this lethal disease can become a National Security issue as it crossed boarders and taxed regional health care systems. Ebola symptoms are also similar to other endemic diseases. Thus, forewarning of its possible presence can alert local public health facilities and populations, and may thereby reduce response time. Early work by our group has identified local climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and vegetation health (e.g. remote sensing using normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) variables as leading indicators to known historical Ebola outbreaks. The environmental stress placed on the system as it reaches a climatic tipping point provides optimal conditions for spillover of Ebola virus from the reservoir host (which is unknown but suspected to be bats) to humans. This work outlines a framework for an approach to provide early warning maps based on the present state of the environment. Time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors are the basis for the early warning models used. These maps can provide policy makers and local health care professionals timely information for disease surveillance and preparation for future Ebola outbreaks.

  4. 49 CFR 190.205 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warnings. 190.205 Section 190.205 Transportation... REGULATORY PROCEDURES Enforcement § 190.205 Warnings. Upon determining that a probable violation of 49 U.S.C... Associate Administrator or a Regional Director may issue a written warning notifying the operator of the...

  5. Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

    2017-12-01

    In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

  6. Warnings and Human Response in the Oroville Dam Crisis, February 2017

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorensen, J. H.; Mileti, D. S.; Needham, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    On February 7, 2017, erosion was detected in the primary spillway for Oroville Dam in northern California, causing an elevated concern for the safety of downstream communities. The situation seemed stable until heavy rains on February 11 resulted in the flow of water over the emergency spillway. On February 12, erosion below the emergency spillway was observed. At 4:21 PM on February 12, the Butte County Sheriff issued an evacuation order for "low levels of Oroville and downstream areas". Counties downstream followed with evacuation warnings. The purpose of this paper is to present preliminary results of research, conducted for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, on the Oroville event. This investigation is part of a research program designed to collect and analyze data on: 1) The timing of the decisions to order public evacuation warnings including the flow of information between engineers and geologist monitoring the hazard and local officials. 2) The method and timing of the dissemination of those warnings including the diffusion or warning by various communication channels. 3) The interpretation and response of the public to those warnings, including the timing of protective action decisions. The findings from these studies will be incorporated into risk assessment models used in assessing the impacts of dam and levee failures on a national basis.

  7. Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

    PubMed

    Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

    2018-04-01

    Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

  8. Lane change warning threshold based on driver perception characteristics.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang; Sun, Qinyu; Fu, Rui; Li, Zhen; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-08-01

    Lane Change Warning system (LCW) is exploited to alleviate driver workload and improve the safety performance of lane changes. Depending on the secure threshold, the lane change warning system could transmit caution to drivers. Although the system possesses substantial benefits, it may perturb the conventional operating of the driver and affect driver judgment if the warning threshold does not conform to the driver perception of safety. Therefore, it is essential to establish an appropriate warning threshold to enhance the accuracy rate and acceptability of the lane change warning system. This research aims to identify the threshold that conforms to the driver perception of the ability to safely change lanes with a rear vehicle fast approaching. We propose a theoretical warning model of lane change based on a safe minimum distance and deceleration of the rear vehicle. For the purpose of acquiring the different safety levels of lane changes, 30 licensed drivers are recruited and we obtain the extreme moments represented by driver perception characteristics from a Front Extremity Test and a Rear Extremity Test implemented on the freeway. The required deceleration of the rear vehicle corresponding to the extreme time is calculated according to the proposed model. In light of discrepancies in the deceleration in these extremity experiments, we determine two levels of a hierarchical warning system. The purpose of the primary warning is to remind drivers of the existence of potentially dangerous vehicles and the second warning is used to warn the driver to stop changing lanes immediately. We use the signal detection theory to analyze the data. Ultimately, we confirm that the first deceleration threshold is 1.5 m/s 2 and the second deceleration threshold is 2.7 m/s 2 . The findings provide the basis for the algorithm design of LCW and enhance the acceptability of the intelligent system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Coupling a regional warning system to a semantic engine on online news for enhancing landslide prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battistini, Alessandro; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    Landslide inventories are basic data for large scale landslide modelling, e.g. they are needed to calibrate and validate rainfall thresholds, physically based models and early warning systems. The setting up of landslide inventories with traditional methods (e.g. remote sensing, field surveys and manual retrieval of data from technical reports and local newspapers) is time consuming. The objective of this work is to automatically set up a landslide inventory using a state-of-the art semantic engine based on data mining on online news (Battistini et al., 2013) and to evaluate if the automatically generated inventory can be used to validate a regional scale landslide warning system based on rainfall-thresholds. The semantic engine scanned internet news in real time in a 50 months test period. At the end of the process, an inventory of approximately 900 landslides was set up for the Tuscany region (23,000 km2, Italy). The inventory was compared with the outputs of the regional landslide early warning system based on rainfall thresholds, and a good correspondence was found: e.g. 84% of the events reported in the news is correctly identified by the model. In addition, the cases of not correspondence were forwarded to the rainfall threshold developers, which used these inputs to update some of the thresholds. On the basis of the results obtained, we conclude that automatic validation of landslide models using geolocalized landslide events feedback is possible. The source of data for validation can be obtained directly from the internet channel using an appropriate semantic engine. We also automated the validation procedure, which is based on a comparison between forecasts and reported events. We verified that our approach can be automatically used for a near real time validation of the warning system and for a semi-automatic update of the rainfall thresholds, which could lead to an improvement of the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system. In the near future

  10. [The application of the prospective space-time statistic in early warning of infectious disease].

    PubMed

    Yin, Fei; Li, Xiao-Song; Feng, Zi-Jian; Ma, Jia-Qi

    2007-06-01

    To investigate the application of prospective space-time scan statistic in the early stage of detecting infectious disease outbreaks. The prospective space-time scan statistic was tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of bacillary dysentery data of Chengdu city in 2005 (3212 cases in 102 towns and villages). And the results were compared with that of purely temporal scan statistic. The prospective space-time scan statistic could give specific messages both in spatial and temporal. The results of June indicated that the prospective space-time scan statistic could timely detect the outbreaks that started from the local site, and the early warning message was powerful (P = 0.007). When the merely temporal scan statistic for detecting the outbreak was sent two days later, and the signal was less powerful (P = 0.039). The prospective space-time scan statistic could make full use of the spatial and temporal information in infectious disease data and could timely and effectively detect the outbreaks that start from the local sites. The prospective space-time scan statistic could be an important tool for local and national CDC to set up early detection surveillance systems.

  11. Study on warning radius of diffuse reflection laser warning based on fish-eye lens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Bolin; Zhang, Weian

    2013-09-01

    The diffuse reflection type of omni-directional laser warning based on fish-eye lens is becoming more and more important. As one of the key parameters of warning system, the warning radius should be put into investigation emphatically. The paper firstly theoretically analyzes the energy detected by single pixel of FPA detector in the system under complicated environment. Then the least energy detectable by each single pixel of the system is computed in terms of detector sensitivity, system noise, and minimum SNR. Subsequently, by comparison between the energy detected by single pixel and the least detectable energy, the warning radius is deduced from Torrance-Sparrow five-parameter semiempirical statistic model. Finally, a field experiment was developed to validate the computational results. It has been found that the warning radius has a close relationship with BRDF parameters of the irradiated target, propagation distance, angle of incidence, and detector sensitivity, etc. Furthermore, an important fact is shown that the experimental values of warning radius are always less than that of theoretical ones, due to such factors as the optical aberration of fish-eye lens, the transmissivity of narrowband filter, and the packing ratio of detector.

  12. Warning Signs of Bullying

    MedlinePlus

    ... of Aggressive Behavior Print Share Warning Signs for Bullying There are many warning signs that may indicate ... Get help right away . Signs a Child is Bullying Others Kids may be bullying others if they: ...

  13. Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a

  14. Multiple Attribute Evaluation Of Auditory Warning Signals For In-Vehicle Crash Avoidance Warning Systems, Technical Report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-11-01

    THIS RESEARCH WAS DIRECTED AT OPTIMIZING THE AUDITORY WARNINGS THAT MAY BE USED IN FUTURE CRASH AVOIDANCE WARNING APPLICATIONS. THERE IS A NEED TO STANDARDIZE SUCH WARNINGS, SO THAT THEY RETAIN IMMEDIACY OF MEANING ACROSS VARIOUS VEHICLES, SITUATIONS...

  15. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

    PubMed Central

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-01-01

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

  16. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

    PubMed

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-03-29

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

  17. 76 FR 63303 - Guidance for Industry on Warnings and Precautions, Contraindications, and Boxed Warning Sections...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-12

    ...The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is announcing the availability of a guidance for industry entitled ``Warnings and Precautions, Contraindications, and Boxed Warning Sections of Labeling for Human Prescription Drug and Biological Products--Content and Format.'' This guidance is intended to assist applicants and reviewers in drafting the ``Warnings and Precautions, Contraindications, and Boxed Warning'' sections of labeling for human prescription drug and biological products. The recommendations in this guidance will help ensure that the labeling is clear, useful, informative, and to the extent possible, consistent in content and format.

  18. Perceptions of tobacco health warnings in China compared with picture and text-only health warnings from other countries: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David; Jiang, Yuan; Li, Qiang; Quah, Anne C K; Driezen, Pete; Yan, Mi

    2010-10-01

    To assess the perceived effectiveness of cigarette health warnings in China, compared with picture and text-only warnings from other countries. 1169 individuals (adult smokers, adult nonsmokers and youth) from four Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming and Yinchuan) viewed 10 health warnings on cigarette packages, which included (a) the current Chinese text warnings covering 30% of the front/back of the pack (introduced October 2008); (b) the former Chinese text warning located on the side of the pack; (c) four picture warnings covering 50% of the front/back of the pack from Canada (lung cancer), Singapore (mouth disease), Hong Kong (gangrene) and European Union (clogged arteries); and (d) the same four warnings without the picture. Participants rated and ranked the 10 warnings on dimensions including how effective each would be in motivating smokers to quit and in convincing youth not to start smoking. Both Chinese warnings were consistently rated as least effective, with the new Chinese warning rated only slightly higher than the old warning. The picture warnings were consistently ranked or rated as most effective, with the text-only versions in the middle. Results were consistent across subject group, city and sex. (1) Picture warnings are rated as much more effective than the same warnings without pictures. (2) The revised health warnings in China, introduced in October 2008, are only marginally more effective than the previous warning and far less effective than even text warnings from other countries. These results, coupled with population-based evaluation studies, suggest that pictorial warnings would significantly increase the impact of health warnings in China.

  19. Airborne Turbulence Detection and Warning ACLAIM Flight Test Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hannon, Stephen M.; Bagley, Hal R.; Soreide, Dave C.; Bowdle, David A.; Bogue, Rodney K.; Ehernberger, L. Jack

    1999-01-01

    The Airborne Coherent Lidar for Advanced Inflight Measurements (ACLAIM) is a NASA/Dryden-lead program to develop and demonstrate a 2 micrometers pulsed Doppler lidar for airborne look-ahead turbulence detection and warning. Advanced warning of approaching turbulence can significantly reduce injuries to passengers and crew aboard commercial airliners. The ACLAIM instrument is a key asset to the ongoing Turbulence component of NASA's Aviation Safety Program, aimed at reducing the accident rate aboard commercial airliners by a factor of five over the next ten years and by a factor of ten over the next twenty years. As well, the advanced turbulence warning capability can prevent "unstarts" in the inlet of supersonic aircraft engines by alerting the flight control computer which then adjusts the engine to operate in a less fuel efficient, and more turbulence tolerant, mode. Initial flight tests of the ACLAIM were completed in March and April of 1998. This paper and presentation gives results from these initial flights, with validated demonstration of Doppler lidar wind turbulence detection several kilometers ahead of the aircraft.

  20. A real-time measurement system for long-life flood monitoring and warning applications.

    PubMed

    Marin-Perez, Rafael; García-Pintado, Javier; Gómez, Antonio Skarmeta

    2012-01-01

    A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km(2) semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data in many sparse locations during flood events.

  1. A Real-Time Measurement System for Long-Life Flood Monitoring and Warning Applications

    PubMed Central

    Marin-Perez, Rafael; García-Pintado, Javier; Gómez, Antonio Skarmeta

    2012-01-01

    A flood warning system incorporates telemetered rainfall and flow/water level data measured at various locations in the catchment area. Real-time accurate data collection is required for this use, and sensor networks improve the system capabilities. However, existing sensor nodes struggle to satisfy the hydrological requirements in terms of autonomy, sensor hardware compatibility, reliability and long-range communication. We describe the design and development of a real-time measurement system for flood monitoring, and its deployment in a flash-flood prone 650 km2 semiarid watershed in Southern Spain. A developed low-power and long-range communication device, so-called DatalogV1, provides automatic data gathering and reliable transmission. DatalogV1 incorporates self-monitoring for adapting measurement schedules for consumption management and to capture events of interest. Two tests are used to assess the success of the development. The results show an autonomous and robust monitoring system for long-term collection of water level data in many sparse locations during flood events. PMID:22666028

  2. Health Warning Labels for Smokeless Tobacco: The Impact of Graphic Images on Attention, Recall, and Craving.

    PubMed

    Klein, Elizabeth G; Quisenberry, Amanda J; Shoben, Abigail B; Cooper, Sarah; Ferketich, Amy K; Berman, Micah; Peters, Ellen; Wewers, Mary Ellen

    2017-10-01

    Little research has examined the impacts of graphic health warnings on the users of smokeless tobacco products. A convenience sample of past-month, male smokeless tobacco users (n = 142; 100% male) was randomly assigned to view a smokeless tobacco advertisement with a graphic health warning (GHW) or a text-only warning. Eye-tracking equipment measured viewing time, or dwell time, in milliseconds. Following the advertisement exposure, participants self-reported smokeless tobacco craving and recalled any content in the health warning message (unaided recall). Linear and logistic regression analyses evaluated the proportion of time viewing the GHW, craving, and GHW recall. Participants who viewed a GHW spent a significantly greater proportion of their ad viewing time on GHWs (2.87 seconds or 30%), compared to those viewing a text-only warning (2.05 seconds or 24%). Although there were no significant differences by condition in total advertisement viewing duration, those participants viewing a GHW had increased recall of health warning messages compared to the text-only warning (76% had any warning message recall compared to 53%; p < .05). Self-reported craving after advertisement exposure was lower in the GHW compared to text-only condition, but the difference was not statistically significant (a rating of 4.4 vs. 5.3 on a 10-point scale; p = .08). GHWs attracted greater attention and greater recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings among rural male smokeless tobacco users. Among a sample of rural smokeless tobacco users, GHWs attracted more attention and recall of health warning messages compared to text-only warnings when viewed within smokeless tobacco advertising. These findings provide additional empirical support that GHWs are an effective tobacco control tool for all tobacco products and advertisements. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights

  3. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  4. Small-scale (flash) flood early warning in the light of operational requirements: opportunities and limits with regard to user demands, driving data, and hydrologic modeling techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Büttner, Uwe; Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Schütze, Niels

    2016-05-01

    In recent years, the Free State of Saxony (Eastern Germany) was repeatedly hit by both extensive riverine flooding, as well as flash flood events, emerging foremost from convective heavy rainfall. Especially after a couple of small-scale, yet disastrous events in 2010, preconditions, drivers, and methods for deriving flash flood related early warning products are investigated. This is to clarify the feasibility and the limits of envisaged early warning procedures for small catchments, hit by flashy heavy rain events. Early warning about potentially flash flood prone situations (i.e., with a suitable lead time with regard to required reaction-time needs of the stakeholders involved in flood risk management) needs to take into account not only hydrological, but also meteorological, as well as communication issues. Therefore, we propose a threefold methodology to identify potential benefits and limitations in a real-world warning/reaction context. First, the user demands (with respect to desired/required warning products, preparation times, etc.) are investigated. Second, focusing on small catchments of some hundred square kilometers, two quantitative precipitation forecasts are verified. Third, considering the user needs, as well as the input parameter uncertainty (i.e., foremost emerging from an uncertain QPF), a feasible, yet robust hydrological modeling approach is proposed on the basis of pilot studies, employing deterministic, data-driven, and simple scoring methods.

  5. Fuzzy logic inference-based Pavement Friction Management and real-time slippery warning systems: A proof of concept study.

    PubMed

    Najafi, Shahriar; Flintsch, Gerardo W; Khaleghian, Seyedmeysam

    2016-05-01

    Minimizing roadway crashes and fatalities is one of the primary objectives of highway engineers, and can be achieved in part through appropriate maintenance practices. Maintaining an appropriate level of friction is a crucial maintenance practice, due to the effect it has on roadway safety. This paper presents a fuzzy logic inference system that predicts the rate of vehicle crashes based on traffic level, speed limit, and surface friction. Mamdani and Sugeno fuzzy controllers were used to develop the model. The application of the proposed fuzzy control system in a real-time slippery road warning system is demonstrated as a proof of concept. The results of this study provide a decision support model for highway agencies to monitor their network's friction and make appropriate judgments to correct deficiencies based on crash risk. Furthermore, this model can be implemented in the connected vehicle environment to warn drivers of potentially slippery locations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. Driving with a partially autonomous forward collision warning system: how do drivers react?

    PubMed

    Muhrer, Elke; Reinprecht, Klaus; Vollrath, Mark

    2012-10-01

    The effects of a forward collision warning (FCW) and braking system (FCW+) were examined in a driving simulator study analyzing driving and gaze behavior and the engagement in a secondary task. In-depth accident analyses indicate that a lack of appropriate expectations for possible critical situations and visual distraction may be the major causes of rear-end crashes. Studies with FCW systems have shown that a warning alone was not enough for a driver to be able to avoid the accident. Thus,an additional braking intervention by such systems could be necessary. In a driving simulator experiment, 30 drivers took part in a car-following scenario in an urban area. It was assumed that different lead car behaviors and environmental aspects would lead to different drivers' expectations of the future traffic situation. Driving with and without FCW+ was introduced as a between-subjects factor. Driving with FCW+ resulted in significantly fewer accidents in critical situations. This result was achieved by the system's earlier reaction time as compared with that of drivers. The analysis of the gaze behavior showed that driving with the system did not lead to a stronger involvement in secondary tasks. The study supports the hypotheses about the importance of missing expectations for the occurrence of accidents. These accidents can be prevented by an FCW+ that brakes autonomously. The results indicate that an autonomous braking intervention should be implemented in FCW systems to increase the effectiveness of these assistance systems.

  7. Development of a real-time bridge structural monitoring and warning system: a case study in Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khemapech, I.; Sansrimahachai, W.; Toachoodee, M.

    2017-04-01

    Regarded as one of the physical aspects under societal and civil development and evolution, engineering structure is required to support growth of the nation. It also impacts life quality and safety of the civilian. Despite of its own weight (dead load) and live load, structural members are also significantly affected by disaster and environment. Proper inspection and detection are thus crucial both during regular and unsafe events. An Enhanced Structural Health Monitoring System Using Stream Processing and Artificial Neural Network Techniques (SPANNeT) has been developed and is described in this paper. SPANNeT applies wireless sensor network, real-time data stream processing and artificial neural network based upon the measured bending strains. Major contributions include an effective, accurate and energy-aware data communication and damage detection of the engineering structure. Strain thresholds have been defined according to computer simulation results and the AASHTO (American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) LRFD (Load and Resistance Factor Design) Bridge Design specifications for launching several warning levels. SPANNeT has been tested and evaluated by means of computer-based simulation and on-site levels. According to the measurements, the observed maximum values are 25 to 30 microstrains during normal operation. The given protocol provided at least 90% of data communication reliability. SPANNeT is capable of real-time data report, monitoring and warning efficiently conforming to the predefined thresholds which can be adjusted regarding user's requirements and structural engineering characteristics.

  8. Is More Better? - Night Vision Enhancement System's Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers.

    PubMed

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers' workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers.

  9. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  10. Brake reactions of distracted drivers to pedestrian Forward Collision Warning systems.

    PubMed

    Lubbe, Nils

    2017-06-01

    Forward Collision Warning (FCW) can be effective in directing driver attention towards a conflict and thereby aid in preventing or mitigating collisions. FCW systems aiming at pedestrian protection have been introduced onto the market, yet an assessment of their safety benefits depends on the accurate modeling of driver reactions when the system is activated. This study contributes by quantifying brake reaction time and brake behavior (deceleration levels and jerk) to compare the effectiveness of an audio-visual warning only, an added haptic brake pulse warning, and an added Head-Up Display in reducing the frequency of collisions with pedestrians. Further, this study provides a detailed data set suited for the design of assessment methods for car-to-pedestrian FCW systems. Brake response characteristics were measured for heavily distracted drivers who were subjected to a single FCW event in a high-fidelity driving simulator. The drivers maintained a self-regulated speed of 30km/h in an urban area, with gaze direction diverted from the forward roadway by a secondary task. Collision rates and brake reaction times differed significantly across FCW settings. Brake pulse warnings resulted in the lowest number of collisions and the shortest brake reaction times (mean 0.8s, SD 0.29s). Brake jerk and deceleration were independent of warning type. Ninety percent of drivers exceeded a maximum deceleration of 3.6m/s 2 and a jerk of 5.3m/s 3 . Brake pulse warning was the most effective FCW interface for preventing collisions. In addition, this study presents the data required for driver modeling for car-to-pedestrian FCW similar to Euro NCAP's 2015 car-to-car FCW assessment. Practical applications: Vehicle manufacturers should consider the introduction of brake pulse warnings to their FCW systems. Euro NCAP could introduce an assessment that quantifies the safety benefits of pedestrian FCW systems and thereby aid the proliferation of effective systems. Copyright © 2017

  11. Mediational pathways of the impact of cigarette warning labels on quit attempts

    PubMed Central

    Yong, Hua-Hie; Borland, Ron; Thrasher, James F.; Thompson, Mary E.; Nagelhout, Gera E.; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Hammond, David; Cummings, K. Michael

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To test and develop, using structural equation modelling, a robust model of the mediational pathways through which health warning labels exert their influence on smokers’ subsequent quitting behaviour. Methods Data come from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey, a longitudinal cohort study conducted in Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US. Waves 5–6 data (n=4988) were used to calibrate the hypothesized model of warning label impact on subsequent quit attempts via a set of policy-specific and general psychosocial mediators. The finalised model was validated using Waves 6–7 data (n=5065). Results As hypothesized, warning label salience was positively associated with thoughts about risks of smoking stimulated by the warnings (β=.58, p<.001), which in turn were positively related to increased worry about negative outcomes of smoking (β=.52, p<.001); increased worry in turn predicted stronger intention to quit (β=.39, p<.001) which was a strong predictor of subsequent quit attempts (β=.39, p<.001). This calibrated model was successfully replicated using Waves 6–7 data. Conclusions Health warning labels seem to influence future quitting attempts primarily through their ability to stimulate thoughts about the risks of smoking, which in turn help to raise smoking-related health concerns, which lead to stronger intentions to quit, a known key predictor of future quit attempts for smokers. By making warning labels more salient and engaging, they should have a greater chance to change behaviour. PMID:24977309

  12. Health warnings promote healthier dietary decision making: Effects of positive versus negative message framing and graphic versus text-based warnings.

    PubMed

    Rosenblatt, Daniel H; Bode, Stefan; Dixon, Helen; Murawski, Carsten; Summerell, Patrick; Ng, Alyssa; Wakefield, Melanie

    2018-08-01

    Food product health warnings have been proposed as a potential obesity prevention strategy. This study examined the effects of text-only and text-and-graphic, negatively and positively framed health warnings on dietary choice behavior. In a 2 × 5 mixed experimental design, 96 participants completed a dietary self-control task. After providing health and taste ratings of snack foods, participants completed a baseline measure of dietary self-control, operationalized as participants' frequency of choosing healthy but not tasty items and rejecting unhealthy yet tasty items to consume at the end of the experiment. Participants were then randomly assigned to one of five health warning groups and presented with 10 health warnings of a given form: text-based, negative framing; graphic, negative framing; text, positive framing; graphic, positive framing; or a no warning control. Participants then completed a second dietary decision making session to determine whether health warnings influenced dietary self-control. Linear mixed effects modeling revealed a significant interaction between health warning group and decision stage (pre- and post-health warning presentation) on dietary self-control. Negatively framed graphic health warnings promoted greater dietary self-control than other health warnings. Negatively framed text health warnings and positively framed graphic health warnings promoted greater dietary self-control than positively framed text health warnings and control images, which did not increase dietary self-control. Overall, HWs primed healthier dietary decision making behavior, with negatively framed graphic HWs being most effective. Health warnings have potential to become an important element of obesity prevention. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Observed activation status of lane departure warning and forward collision warning of Honda vehicles at dealership service centers.

    PubMed

    Reagan, Ian J; McCartt, Anne T

    2016-11-16

    There are little objective data on whether drivers with lane departure warning and forward collision warning systems actually use them, but self-report data indicate that lane departure warning may be used less and viewed less favorably than forward collision warning. The current study assessed whether the systems were turned on when drivers brought their vehicles to dealership service stations and whether the observational protocol is a feasible method for collecting similar data on various manufacturers' systems. Observations of 2013-2015 Honda Accords, 2014-2015 Odysseys, and 2015 CR-Vs occurred at 2 U.S. Honda dealerships for approximately 4 weeks during Summer 2015. Of the 265 vehicles observed to have the 2 systems, 87 (32.8%) had lane departure warning turned on. Accords were associated with a 66% increase in the likelihood that lane departure warning was turned on compared with Odysseys, but the rate was still only about 40% in Accords. In contrast, forward collision warning was turned on in all but one of the observed vehicles. Observations found that the activation rate was much higher for forward collision warning than lane departure warning. The observation method worked well and appears feasible for extending to other manufacturers.

  14. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  15. Improving tractor safety warnings: readability is missing.

    PubMed

    Tebeaux, E

    2010-07-01

    Research on tractor safety has not focused on user manuals. This study focuses on tractor operator manuals, specifically safety warnings, selected from the files of the Tractor Test facility at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Analysis of many common warnings, based on readability and legibility research, shows that many warnings contain excessive information, confusing visuals and safety icons, poor document design, and illegible typefaces. The result is unreadable warnings that do not communicate quickly and correctly, and discourage readers rather than clarify critical information. Many tractor operator warnings are cluttered, "over-written," and contain information needed to protect the manufacturer rather than to inform operators. What is needed is a careful analysis and revision of many safety warnings with the goal of encouraging operators to read the warnings and follow their message.

  16. 40 CFR 82.106 - Warning statement requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning statement requirements. 82.106....106 Warning statement requirements. (a) Required warning statements. Unless otherwise exempted by this subpart, each container or product identified in § 82.102 (a) or (b) shall bear the following warning...

  17. 40 CFR 82.106 - Warning statement requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning statement requirements. 82.106....106 Warning statement requirements. (a) Required warning statements. Unless otherwise exempted by this subpart, each container or product identified in § 82.102 (a) or (b) shall bear the following warning...

  18. 40 CFR 82.106 - Warning statement requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning statement requirements. 82.106....106 Warning statement requirements. (a) Required warning statements. Unless otherwise exempted by this subpart, each container or product identified in § 82.102 (a) or (b) shall bear the following warning...

  19. Earthquake early warning for Romania - most recent improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru; Elia, Luca; Martino, Claudio; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Cioflan, Carmen; Toader, Victorin; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marius Craiu, George; Ionescu, Constantin

    2014-05-01

    EWS for Vrancea earthquakes uses the time interval (28-32 sec.) between the moment when the earthquake is detected by the local seismic network installed in the epicenter area (Vrancea) and the arrival time of the seismic waves in the protected area (Bucharest) to send earthquake warning to users. In the last years, National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) upgraded its seismic network in order to cover better the seismic zones of Romania. Currently the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) operates a real-time seismic network designed to monitor the seismic activity on the Romania territory, dominated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth (60-200 km) earthquakes. The NIEP real-time network consists of 102 stations and two seismic arrays equipped with different high quality digitizers (Kinemetrics K2, Quanterra Q330, Quanterra Q330HR, PS6-26, Basalt), broadband and short period seismometers (CMG3ESP, CMG40T, KS2000, KS54000, KS2000, CMG3T,STS2, SH-1, S13, Ranger, gs21, Mark l22) and acceleration sensors (Episensor). Recent improvement of the seismic network and real-time communication technologies allows implementation of a nation-wide EEWS for Vrancea and other seismic sources from Romania. We present a regional approach to Earthquake Early Warning for Romania earthquakes. The regional approach is based on PRESTo (Probabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) software platform: PRESTo processes in real-time three channel acceleration data streams: once the P-waves arrival have been detected, it provides earthquake location and magnitude estimations, and peak ground motion predictions at target sites. PRESTo is currently implemented in real- time at National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest for several months in parallel with a secondary EEWS. The alert notification is issued only when both systems validate each other. Here we present the results obtained using offline earthquakes originating from Vrancea area together with several real-time

  20. Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.

    2015-12-01

    The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a

  1. Cigarette graphic warning labels increase both risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement.

    PubMed

    Evans, Abigail T; Peters, Ellen; Shoben, Abigail B; Meilleur, Louise R; Klein, Elizabeth G; Tompkins, Mary Kate; Tusler, Martin

    2018-02-01

    Cigarette graphic warning labels elicit negative emotion, which increases risk perceptions through multiple processes. We examined whether this emotion simultaneously affects motivated cognitions like smoking myth endorsement (e.g. 'exercise can undo the negative effects of smoking') and perceptions of cigarette danger versus other products. 736 adult and 469 teen smokers/vulnerable smokers viewed one of three warning label types (text-only, low emotion graphic or high emotion graphic) four times over two weeks. Emotional reactions to the warnings were reported during the first and fourth exposures. Participants reported how often they considered the warnings, smoking myth endorsement, risk perceptions and perceptions of cigarette danger relative to smokeless tobacco and electronic cigarettes. In structural equation models, emotional reactions influenced risk perceptions and smoking myth endorsement through two processes. Emotion acted as information about risk, directly increasing smoking risk perceptions and decreasing smoking myth endorsement. Emotion also acted as a spotlight, motivating consideration of the warning information. Warning consideration increased risk perceptions, but also increased smoking myth endorsement. Emotional reactions to warnings decreased perceptions of cigarette danger relative to other products. Emotional reactions to cigarette warnings increase smoking risk perceptions, but also smoking myth endorsement and misperceptions that cigarettes are less dangerous than potentially harm-reducing tobacco products.

  2. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  3. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  4. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  5. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  6. 49 CFR 193.2917 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signs. 193.2917 Section 193.2917 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY...: FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Security § 193.2917 Warning signs. (a) Warning signs must be conspicuously placed...

  7. 49 CFR 230.85 - Audible warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Audible warning device. 230.85 Section 230.85... Tenders Cabs, Warning Signals, Sanders and Lights § 230.85 Audible warning device. (a) General provisions. Each steam locomotive shall be equipped with an audible warning device that produces a minimum sound...

  8. 49 CFR 230.85 - Audible warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Audible warning device. 230.85 Section 230.85... Tenders Cabs, Warning Signals, Sanders and Lights § 230.85 Audible warning device. (a) General provisions. Each steam locomotive shall be equipped with an audible warning device that produces a minimum sound...

  9. 30 CFR 27.23 - Automatic warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Automatic warning device. 27.23 Section 27.23... Automatic warning device. (a) An automatic warning device shall be suitably constructed for incorporation in... automatic warning device shall include an alarm signal (audible or colored light), which shall be made to...

  10. 49 CFR 230.85 - Audible warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Audible warning device. 230.85 Section 230.85... Tenders Cabs, Warning Signals, Sanders and Lights § 230.85 Audible warning device. (a) General provisions. Each steam locomotive shall be equipped with an audible warning device that produces a minimum sound...

  11. 30 CFR 27.23 - Automatic warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Automatic warning device. 27.23 Section 27.23... Automatic warning device. (a) An automatic warning device shall be suitably constructed for incorporation in... automatic warning device shall include an alarm signal (audible or colored light), which shall be made to...

  12. 30 CFR 27.23 - Automatic warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Automatic warning device. 27.23 Section 27.23... Automatic warning device. (a) An automatic warning device shall be suitably constructed for incorporation in... automatic warning device shall include an alarm signal (audible or colored light), which shall be made to...

  13. 30 CFR 27.23 - Automatic warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Automatic warning device. 27.23 Section 27.23... Automatic warning device. (a) An automatic warning device shall be suitably constructed for incorporation in... automatic warning device shall include an alarm signal (audible or colored light), which shall be made to...

  14. 49 CFR 230.85 - Audible warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Audible warning device. 230.85 Section 230.85... Tenders Cabs, Warning Signals, Sanders and Lights § 230.85 Audible warning device. (a) General provisions. Each steam locomotive shall be equipped with an audible warning device that produces a minimum sound...

  15. 49 CFR 230.85 - Audible warning device.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Audible warning device. 230.85 Section 230.85... Tenders Cabs, Warning Signals, Sanders and Lights § 230.85 Audible warning device. (a) General provisions. Each steam locomotive shall be equipped with an audible warning device that produces a minimum sound...

  16. Predictors of compliance with tornado warnings issued in Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

    PubMed

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Stimers, Mitchel; Caldas, Marcellus

    2015-01-01

    Joplin, a city in the southwest corner of Missouri, United States, suffered an EF-5 tornado in the late afternoon of 22 May 2011. This event, which claimed the lives of 162 people, represents the deadliest single tornado to strike the US since modern record-keeping began in 1950. This study examines the factors associated with responses to tornado warnings. Based on a post-tornado survey of survivors in Joplin, it reveals that tornado warnings were adequate and timely. Multivariate logistic regression identified four statistically significant determinants of compliance with tornado warnings: number of warning sources, whether respondents were at home when the tornado struck, past tornado experience, and gender. The findings suggest several recommendations, the implementation of which will further improve responses to tornado warnings. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  17. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    rainfall-runoff model transforms the (forecasted) rainfall into a runoff volume (m³) and consequently a time-dependent discharge (m³/s) for each of the subwadis which is then routed through the main channel. The flood model then converts the discharges into water stages and generates a spatially-distributed flood map. The rainfall-runoff model is developed in Matlab-Simulink. The latter two models are implemented in Infoworks and Floodworks (both Wallingford Software), which allows an automatic feed into the warning module. The ‘warning module’ has two tasks: 1) to generate specific flags when modelling results exceed pre-established thresholds for rainfall, discharge, water stage, volumes, etc… 2) to communicate the given flags as warning signals to operators and/or stakeholders. The ‘decision support module’ or DSS finally gives to the user the capability of performing alternative analysis in order to have a better idea of the reliability of the forecasts by means of the comparison of already made forecasts with new data and a sensitivity analysis. Although FlaFloM is now able to send out warnings, the forecasts of this first version are expected to be insufficiently accurate which may lead to false warnings and loss of trust with decision-makers if not communicated well. When new insights and data are available, the model will be updated which improves the forecast accuracy. At this moment, we see two major fields of improvement: 1) better rainfall forecasts and 2) better insights of the response of an arid area to storm events. Firstly, the rainfall maps provided better insights in the spatial and temporal extent of a rainfall event, though absolute rainfall values are not considered accurate. The major reason behind is the fact that both global systems are insufficiently parameterized for arid areas. New data from an improved rain gauge network is expected to add value. Secondly, better insights need to be gained on the response of the Wadi to rainfall

  18. 49 CFR 107.309 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning letters. 107.309 Section 107.309... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Enforcement Compliance Orders and Civil Penalties § 107.309 Warning letters. (a) The Associate Administrator may issue a warning letter to any person whom the Associate Administrator believes...

  19. 49 CFR 107.309 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning letters. 107.309 Section 107.309... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Enforcement Compliance Orders and Civil Penalties § 107.309 Warning letters. (a) The Associate Administrator may issue a warning letter to any person whom the Associate Administrator believes...

  20. 49 CFR 107.309 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning letters. 107.309 Section 107.309... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Enforcement Compliance Orders and Civil Penalties § 107.309 Warning letters. (a) The Associate Administrator may issue a warning letter to any person whom the Associate Administrator believes...

  1. 49 CFR 107.309 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning letters. 107.309 Section 107.309... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Enforcement Compliance Orders and Civil Penalties § 107.309 Warning letters. (a) The Associate Administrator may issue a warning letter to any person whom the Associate Administrator believes...

  2. 49 CFR 107.309 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning letters. 107.309 Section 107.309... PROGRAM PROCEDURES Enforcement Compliance Orders and Civil Penalties § 107.309 Warning letters. (a) The Associate Administrator may issue a warning letter to any person whom the Associate Administrator believes...

  3. Contribution of an exposure indicator to better anticipate damages with the AIGA flood warning method: a case study in the South of France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine; Douvinet, Johnny; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

    2016-04-01

    On the 3rd October 2015, heavy localized precipitations have occurred in South Eastern France leading to major flash floods on the Mediterranean coast. The severity of those floods has caused 20 fatalities and important damage in almost 50 municipalities in the French administrative area of Alpes-Maritimes. The local recording rain gauges have shown how fast the event has happened: 156 mm of rain were recorded in Mandelieu-la-Napoule and 145 mm in Cannes within 2 hours. As the affected rivers are not monitored, no anticipation was possible from the authorities in charge of risk management. In this case, forecasting floods is indeed complex because of the small size of the watersheds which implies a reduced catchment response time. In order to cope with the need of issuing flood warnings on un-monitored small catchments, Irstea and Météo-France have developed an alternative warning system for ungauged basins called the AIGA method. AIGA is a flood warning system based on a simple distributed hydrological model run at a 1 km² resolution using real time radar rainfall information (Javelle, Demargne, Defrance, Pansu, & Arnaud, 2014). The flood warnings, produced every 15 minutes, result of the comparison of the real time runoff data produced by the model with statistical runoff values. AIGA is running in real time in the South of France, within the RHYTMME project (https://rhytmme.irstea.fr/). Work is on-going in order to offer a similar service for the whole French territory. More than 200 impacts of the 3rd October floods have been located using media, social networks and fieldwork. The first comparisons between these impacts and the AIGA warning levels computed for this event show several discrepancies. However, these latter discrepancies appear to be explained by the land-use. An indicator of the exposure of territories to flooding has thus been created to weight the levels of the AIGA hydrological warnings with the land-use of the area surrounding the streams

  4. Coastal Warning Display Program

    Science.gov Websites

    ! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts COASTAL WARNING DISPLAY PROGRAM Marine COASTAL WARNING DISPLAY PROGRAM As of February 15, 1989, the National Weather Service retired its Coastal

  5. Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response System (FFWRS): an alternate for nonstructural flood management in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Rashed

    2005-06-01

    Despite advances in short-range flood forecasting and information dissemination systems in Bangladesh, the present system is less than satisfactory. This is because of short lead-time products, outdated dissemination networks, and lack of direct feedback from the end-user. One viable solution is to produce long-lead seasonal forecasts--the demand for which is significantly increasing in Bangladesh--and disseminate these products through the appropriate channels. As observed in other regions, the success of seasonal forecasts, in contrast to short-term forecast, depends on consensus among the participating institutions. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Response System (henceforth, FFWRS) has been found to be an important component in a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood management. A general consensus in producing seasonal forecasts can thus be achieved by enhancing the existing FFWRS. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to revisit and modify the framework of an ideal warning response system for issuance of consensus seasonal flood forecasts in Bangladesh. The five-stage FFWRS-i) Flood forecasting, ii) Forecast interpretation and message formulation, iii) Warning preparation and dissemination, iv) Responses, and v) Review and analysis-has been modified. To apply the concept of consensus forecast, a framework similar to that of the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) has been discussed. Finally, the need for a climate Outlook Fora has been emphasized for a comprehensive and participatory approach to seasonal flood hazard management in Bangladesh.

  6. Standardised (plain) cigarette packaging increases attention to both text-based and graphical health warnings: experimental evidence.

    PubMed

    Shankleman, M; Sykes, C; Mandeville, K L; Di Costa, S; Yarrow, K

    2015-01-01

    To investigate whether standardised cigarette packaging increases the time spent looking at health warnings, regardless of the format of those warnings. A factorial (two pack styles x three warning types) within-subject experiment, with participants randomised to different orders of conditions, completed at a university in London, UK. Mock-ups of cigarette packets were presented to participants with their branded portion in either standardised (plain) or manufacturer-designed (branded) format. Health warnings were present on all packets, representing all three types currently in use in the UK: black & white text, colour text, or colour images with accompanying text. Gaze position was recorded using a specialised eye tracker, providing the main outcome measure, which was the mean proportion of a five-second viewing period spent gazing at the warning-label region of the packet. An opportunity sample of 30 (six male, mean age = 23) young adults met the following inclusion criteria: 1) not currently a smoker; 2) <100 lifetime cigarettes smoked; 3) gaze position successfully tracked for > 50% viewing time. These participants spent a greater proportion of the available time gazing at the warning-label region when the branded section of the pack was standardised (following current Australian guidelines) rather than containing the manufacturer's preferred design (mean difference in proportions = 0.078, 95% confidence interval 0.049 to 0.106, p < 0.001). There was no evidence that this effect varied based on the type of warning label (black & white text vs. colour text vs. colour image & text; interaction p = 0.295). During incidental viewing of cigarette packets, young adult never-smokers are likely to spend more time looking at health warnings if manufacturers are compelled to use standardised packaging, regardless of the warning design. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach for short-duration rainfall events: Development and testing over Beijing during the warm seasons of 2006-2007

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin

    2018-06-01

    Nowcasting short-duration (i.e., <6 h) rainfall (SDR) events is examined using total [i.e., cloud-to-ground (CG) and intra-cloud (IC)] lightning observations over the Beijing Metropolitan Region (BMR) during the warm seasons of 2006-2007. A total of 928 moderate and 554 intense SDR events, i.e., with the respective hourly rainfall rates (HRR) of 10-20 and ≥20 mm h-1, are utilized to estimate sharp-increasing rates in rainfall and lightning flash, termed as rainfall and lightning jumps, respectively. By optimizing the parameters in a lightning jump and a rainfall jump algorithm, their different jump intensity grades are verified for the above two categories of SDR events. Then, their corresponding graded nowcast-warning models are developed for the moderate and intense SDR events, respectively, with a low-grade warning for hitting more SDR events and a high-grade warning for reducing false alarms. Any issued warning in the nowcast-warning models is designed to last for 2 h after the occurrence of a lightning jump. It is demonstrated that the low-grade warnings can have the probability of detection (POD) of 67.8% (87.0%) and the high-grade warnings have the false alarms ratio (FAR) of 27.0% (22.2%) for the moderate (intense) SDR events, with an averaged lead time of 36.7 (52.0) min. The nowcast-warning models are further validated using three typical heavy-rain-producing storms that are independent from those used to develop the models. Results show that the nowcast-warning models can provide encouraging early warnings for the associated SDR events from the regional to meso-γ scales, indicating that they have a great potential in being applied to the other regions where high-resolution total lightning observations are available.

  8. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    PubMed

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

  9. 49 CFR 229.113 - Warning notice.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning notice. 229.113 Section 229.113....113 Warning notice. Whenever any steam generator has been shut down because of defects, a distinctive warning notice giving reasons for the shut-down shall be conspicuously attached near the steam generator...

  10. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section 57.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible...

  11. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section 56.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above...

  12. 33 CFR 127.1207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.1207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Equipment § 127.1207 Warning alarms. (a) Each marine... the local COTP additional or alternative warning devices that provide an equivalent level of safety...

  13. 49 CFR 229.113 - Warning notice.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning notice. 229.113 Section 229.113....113 Warning notice. Whenever any steam generator has been shut down because of defects, a distinctive warning notice giving reasons for the shut-down shall be conspicuously attached near the steam generator...

  14. 49 CFR 229.113 - Warning notice.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning notice. 229.113 Section 229.113....113 Warning notice. Whenever any steam generator has been shut down because of defects, a distinctive warning notice giving reasons for the shut-down shall be conspicuously attached near the steam generator...

  15. 49 CFR 190.205 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning letters. 190.205 Section 190.205... REGULATORY PROCEDURES Enforcement § 190.205 Warning letters. Link to an amendment published at 78 FR 58909... or order issued thereunder has occurred, the Associate Administrator, OPS, may issue a Warning Letter...

  16. 49 CFR 229.113 - Warning notice.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning notice. 229.113 Section 229.113....113 Warning notice. Whenever any steam generator has been shut down because of defects, a distinctive warning notice giving reasons for the shut-down shall be conspicuously attached near the steam generator...

  17. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section 56.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above...

  18. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section 56.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above...

  19. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section 56.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above...

  20. 30 CFR 56.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 56.14214 Section 56.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible above...

  1. 33 CFR 127.1207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.1207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Equipment § 127.1207 Warning alarms. (a) Each marine... the local COTP additional or alternative warning devices that provide an equivalent level of safety...

  2. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section 57.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible...

  3. 33 CFR 127.1207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.1207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Equipment § 127.1207 Warning alarms. (a) Each marine... the local COTP additional or alternative warning devices that provide an equivalent level of safety...

  4. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section 57.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible...

  5. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section 57.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible...

  6. 33 CFR 127.1207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.1207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Equipment § 127.1207 Warning alarms. (a) Each marine... the local COTP additional or alternative warning devices that provide an equivalent level of safety...

  7. 33 CFR 127.1207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.1207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Equipment § 127.1207 Warning alarms. (a) Each marine... the local COTP additional or alternative warning devices that provide an equivalent level of safety...

  8. 30 CFR 57.14214 - Train warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Train warnings. 57.14214 Section 57.14214 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR METAL AND NONMETAL MINE... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14214 Train warnings. A warning that is audible...

  9. 49 CFR 229.113 - Warning notice.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning notice. 229.113 Section 229.113....113 Warning notice. Whenever any steam generator has been shut down because of defects, a distinctive warning notice giving reasons for the shut-down shall be conspicuously attached near the steam generator...

  10. 40 CFR 82.108 - Placement of warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Placement of warning statement. 82.108....108 Placement of warning statement. The warning statement shall be placed so as to satisfy the requirement of the Act that the warning statement be “clearly legible and conspicuous.” The warning statement...

  11. 40 CFR 82.108 - Placement of warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Placement of warning statement. 82.108....108 Placement of warning statement. The warning statement shall be placed so as to satisfy the requirement of the Act that the warning statement be “clearly legible and conspicuous.” The warning statement...

  12. 40 CFR 82.108 - Placement of warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Placement of warning statement. 82.108....108 Placement of warning statement. The warning statement shall be placed so as to satisfy the requirement of the Act that the warning statement be “clearly legible and conspicuous.” The warning statement...

  13. 40 CFR 82.108 - Placement of warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Placement of warning statement. 82.108....108 Placement of warning statement. The warning statement shall be placed so as to satisfy the requirement of the Act that the warning statement be “clearly legible and conspicuous.” The warning statement...

  14. 40 CFR 82.108 - Placement of warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Placement of warning statement. 82.108....108 Placement of warning statement. The warning statement shall be placed so as to satisfy the requirement of the Act that the warning statement be “clearly legible and conspicuous.” The warning statement...

  15. Non-smoking male adolescents' reactions to cigarette warnings.

    PubMed

    Pepper, Jessica K; Cameron, Linda D; Reiter, Paul L; McRee, Annie-Laurie; Brewer, Noel T

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is working to introduce new graphic warning labels for cigarette packages, the first change in cigarette warnings in more than 25 years. We sought to examine whether warnings discouraged participants from wanting to smoke and altered perceived likelihood of harms among adolescent males and whether these warning effects varied by age. A national sample of 386 non-smoking American males ages 11-17 participated in an online experiment during fall 2010. We randomly assigned participants to view warnings using a 2 × 2 between-subjects design. The warnings described a harm of smoking (addiction or lung cancer) using text only or text plus an image used on European cigarette package warnings. Analyses tested whether age moderated the warnings' impact on risk perceptions and smoking motivations. The warnings discouraged most adolescents from wanting to smoke, but lung cancer warnings discouraged them more than addiction warnings did (60% vs. 34% were "very much" discouraged, p<.001). Including an image had no effect on discouragement. The warnings affected several beliefs about the harms from smoking, and age moderated these effects. Adolescents said addiction was easier to imagine and more likely to happen to them than lung cancer. They also believed that their true likelihood of experiencing any harm was lower than what an expert would say. Our findings suggest that warnings focusing on lung cancer, rather than addiction, are more likely to discourage wanting to smoke among adolescent males and enhance their ability to imagine the harmful consequences of smoking. Including images on warnings had little effect on non-smoking male adolescents' discouragement or beliefs, though additional research on the effects of pictorial warnings for this at-risk population is needed as the FDA moves forward with developing new graphic labels.

  16. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  17. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  18. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  19. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  20. 33 CFR 127.1113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.1113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Hazardous Gas Design and Construction § 127.1113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LHG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section...

  1. 16 CFR 307.2 - Required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required warnings. 307.2 Section 307.2... THE COMPREHENSIVE SMOKELESS TOBACCO HEALTH EDUCATION ACT OF 1986 Scope § 307.2 Required warnings. The... regulations. Section 7 of this law provides that no statement, other than the three warning statements...

  2. Reactance to Health Warnings Scale: Development and Validation

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Marissa G.; Sheeran, Paschal; Noar, Seth M.; Ribisl, Kurt M.; Bach, Laura E.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2016-01-01

    Background Health warnings may be less effective if they elicit reactance, a motivation to resist a threat to freedom, yet we lack a standard measure of reactance. Purpose We sought to validate a new health warning reactance scale in the context of pictorial cigarette pack warnings. Methods A national sample of adults (n=1,413) responded to reactance survey questions while viewing randomly assigned pictorial or text warnings on images of cigarette packs. A separate longitudinal sample of adult smokers received the warnings on their own cigarette packs (n=46). Results Factor analyses identified a reliable and valid 27-item Reactance to Health Warnings Scale. In our experimental study, smokers rated pictorial warnings as being able to motivate quitting more than text warnings. However, five reactance scale factors weakened the warnings’ impact (anger, exaggeration, government, manipulation, and personal attack; all p<.05). Conclusions The Reactance to Health Warnings Scale had good psychometric properties. Reactance weakened the impact of pictorial warnings on smokers’ evaluation of the warning’s ability to motivate quitting. PMID:27333895

  3. Graphic tobacco health warnings: which genre to choose?

    PubMed

    Sobani, Z; Nizami, S; Raza, E; ul Ain Baloch, N; Khan, J A

    2010-03-01

    Tobacco prevention studies show that graphic health warnings are more effective than text warnings, but there are no data on the effectiveness of different types of graphic health warnings in a Pakistani population. Even marginal differences in the effectiveness of genres can be of potential significance for public health. To study the effectiveness of different types of graphic tobacco warnings in a Pakistani population. We presented ten anti-smoking warnings to randomly selected volunteers (n = 170) and recorded their opinion on the effectiveness of each warning. The warnings were based on a range of images aimed at the diverse population interviewed. A grading scale based on appeal, application, educational potential and motivation towards cessation was used to produce a composite grade of perceived effectiveness of the warning. Our results indicate that graphic warnings reach a greater proportion of the population than text warnings. Those appealing to logic, and those inculcating a sense of fear by showing a deleterious outcome of smoking, were judged likely to be most effective in motivating smokers to quit and preventing experimental smokers from forming a habit.

  4. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  5. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  6. 49 CFR 190.205 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning letters. 190.205 Section 190.205... PROCEDURES Enforcement § 190.205 Warning letters. Upon determining that a probable violation of 49 U.S.C..., OPS, may issue a Warning Letter notifying the owner or operator of the probable violation and advising...

  7. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral... SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during the installation of roof supports, the end of permanent roof support shall be posted with a readily visible warning...

  8. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral... SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during the installation of roof supports, the end of permanent roof support shall be posted with a readily visible warning...

  9. 14 CFR 23.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Stall warning. 23.207 Section 23.207... STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 23.207 Stall warning. (a) There must be a clear and distinctive stall warning, with the flaps and landing gear in any...

  10. 17 CFR 38.711 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Warning letters. 38.711... MARKETS Disciplinary Procedures § 38.711 Warning letters. Where a rule violation is found to have occurred, no more than one warning letter may be issued per rolling 12-month period for the same violation. ...

  11. 17 CFR 38.711 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Warning letters. 38.711... MARKETS Disciplinary Procedures § 38.711 Warning letters. Where a rule violation is found to have occurred, no more than one warning letter may be issued per rolling 12-month period for the same violation. ...

  12. 14 CFR 23.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Stall warning. 23.207 Section 23.207... STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 23.207 Stall warning. (a) There must be a clear and distinctive stall warning, with the flaps and landing gear in any...

  13. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral... SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during the installation of roof supports, the end of permanent roof support shall be posted with a readily visible warning...

  14. 14 CFR 23.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Stall warning. 23.207 Section 23.207... STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 23.207 Stall warning. (a) There must be a clear and distinctive stall warning, with the flaps and landing gear in any...

  15. 49 CFR 190.205 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning letters. 190.205 Section 190.205... PROCEDURES Enforcement § 190.205 Warning letters. Upon determining that a probable violation of 49 U.S.C..., OPS, may issue a Warning Letter notifying the owner or operator of the probable violation and advising...

  16. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral... SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during the installation of roof supports, the end of permanent roof support shall be posted with a readily visible warning...

  17. 14 CFR 23.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Stall warning. 23.207 Section 23.207... STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 23.207 Stall warning. (a) There must be a clear and distinctive stall warning, with the flaps and landing gear in any...

  18. 30 CFR 75.208 - Warning devices.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning devices. 75.208 Section 75.208 Mineral... SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Roof Support § 75.208 Warning devices. Except during the installation of roof supports, the end of permanent roof support shall be posted with a readily visible warning...

  19. 49 CFR 190.205 - Warning letters.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning letters. 190.205 Section 190.205... PROCEDURES Enforcement § 190.205 Warning letters. Upon determining that a probable violation of 49 U.S.C..., OPS, may issue a Warning Letter notifying the owner or operator of the probable violation and advising...

  20. 14 CFR 23.207 - Stall warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Stall warning. 23.207 Section 23.207... STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Flight Stalls § 23.207 Stall warning. (a) There must be a clear and distinctive stall warning, with the flaps and landing gear in any...

  1. Simulating the Impact of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warning Labels in Three Cities.

    PubMed

    Lee, Bruce Y; Ferguson, Marie C; Hertenstein, Daniel L; Adam, Atif; Zenkov, Eli; Wang, Peggy I; Wong, Michelle S; Gittelsohn, Joel; Mui, Yeeli; Brown, Shawn T

    2018-02-01

    A number of locations have been considering sugar-sweetened beverage point-of-purchase warning label policies to help address rising adolescent overweight and obesity prevalence. To explore the impact of such policies, in 2016 detailed agent-based models of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco were developed, representing their populations, school locations, and food sources, using data from various sources collected between 2005 and 2014. The model simulated, over a 7-year period, the mean change in BMI and obesity prevalence in each of the cities from sugar-sweetened beverage warning label policies. Data analysis conducted between 2016 and 2017 found that implementing sugar-sweetened beverage warning labels at all sugar-sweetened beverage retailers lowered obesity prevalence among adolescents in all three cities. Point-of-purchase labels with 8% efficacy (i.e., labels reducing probability of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by 8%) resulted in the following percentage changes in obesity prevalence: Baltimore: -1.69% (95% CI= -2.75%, -0.97%, p<0.001); San Francisco: -4.08% (95% CI= -5.96%, -2.2%, p<0.001); Philadelphia: -2.17% (95% CI= -3.07%, -1.42%, p<0.001). Agent-based simulations showed how warning labels may decrease overweight and obesity prevalence in a variety of circumstances with label efficacy and literacy rate identified as potential drivers. Implementing a warning label policy may lead to a reduction in obesity prevalence. Focusing on warning label design and store compliance, especially at supermarkets, may further increase the health impact. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Mediational pathways of the impact of cigarette warning labels on quit attempts.

    PubMed

    Yong, Hua-Hie; Borland, Ron; Thrasher, James F; Thompson, Mary E; Nagelhout, Gera E; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hammond, David; Cummings, K Michael

    2014-11-01

    To test and develop, using structural equation modeling, a robust model of the mediational pathways through which health warning labels exert their influence on smokers' subsequent quitting behavior. Data come from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country Survey, a longitudinal cohort study conducted in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Waves 5-6 data (n = 4,988) were used to calibrate the hypothesized model of warning label impact on subsequent quit attempts via a set of policy-specific and general psychosocial mediators. The finalized model was validated using Waves 6-7 data (n = 5065). As hypothesized, warning label salience was positively associated with thoughts about risks of smoking stimulated by the warnings (β = .58, p < .001), which in turn were positively related to increased worry about negative outcomes of smoking (β = .52, p < .001); increased worry in turn predicted stronger intention to quit (β = .39, p < .001), which was a strong predictor of subsequent quit attempts (β = .39, p < .001). This calibrated model was successfully replicated using Waves 6-7 data. Health warning labels seem to influence future quitting attempts primarily through their ability to stimulate thoughts about the risks of smoking, which in turn help to raise smoking-related health concerns, which lead to stronger intentions to quit, a known key predictor of future quit attempts for smokers. By making warning labels more salient and engaging, they should have a greater chance to change behavior. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. Effectiveness of a Forward Collision Warning System in simple and in dual task from an electrophysiological perspective.

    PubMed

    Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra; Francois, Mathilde; Ndiaye, Daniel; Deleurence, Philippe; Fabrigoule, Colette

    2013-04-29

    Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) are expected to assist drivers; however, it is not completely clear whether these systems are of benefit to distracted drivers as much as they are to undistracted drivers. This study aims at investigating further the analysis of the effectiveness of a surrogate FCWS according to the attentional state of participants. In this experiment electrophysiological and behavioural data were recording while participants were required to drive in a simple car simulator and to react to the braking of the lead vehicle which could be announced by a warning system. The effectiveness of this warning system was evaluated when drivers were distracted or not by a secondary cognitive task. In a previous study, the warning signal was not completely effective likely due to the presence of another predictor of the forthcoming braking which competes with the warning. By eliminating this secondary predictor in the present study, the results confirmed the negative effect of the secondary task and revealed the expected effectiveness of the warning system at behavioural and electrophysiological levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The marine... be located so that the warning alarm is not obstructed for a distance of 1.6 km (1 mile) in all...

  5. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  6. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The marine... be located so that the warning alarm is not obstructed for a distance of 1.6 km (1 mile) in all...

  7. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The marine... be located so that the warning alarm is not obstructed for a distance of 1.6 km (1 mile) in all...

  8. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The marine... be located so that the warning alarm is not obstructed for a distance of 1.6 km (1 mile) in all...

  9. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  10. 33 CFR 127.207 - Warning alarms.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning alarms. 127.207 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas Equipment § 127.207 Warning alarms. (a) The marine... be located so that the warning alarm is not obstructed for a distance of 1.6 km (1 mile) in all...

  11. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  12. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  13. 33 CFR 127.113 - Warning signs.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning signs. 127.113 Section... Waterfront Facilities Handling Liquefied Natural Gas § 127.113 Warning signs. (a) The marine transfer area for LNG must have warning signs that— (1) Meet paragraph (b) of this section; (2) Can be seen from the...

  14. The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.

    2010-12-01

    In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.

  15. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

    2009-12-01

    Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland

  16. Early-warning signals for catastrophic soil degradation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karssenberg, Derek

    2010-05-01

    Many earth systems have critical thresholds at which the system shifts abruptly from one state to another. Such critical transitions have been described, among others, for climate, vegetation, animal populations, and geomorphology. Predicting the timing of critical transitions before they are reached is of importance because of the large impact on nature and society associated with the transition. However, it is notably difficult to predict the timing of a transition. This is because the state variables of the system show little change before the threshold is reached. As a result, the precision of field observations is often too low to provide predictions of the timing of a transition. A possible solution is the use of spatio-temporal patterns in state variables as leading indicators of a transition. It is becoming clear that the critically slowing down of a system causes spatio-temporal autocorrelation and variance to increase before the transition. Thus, spatio-temporal patterns are important candidates for early-warning signals. In this research we will show that these early-warning signals also exist in geomorphological systems. We consider a modelled vegetation-soil system under a gradually increasing grazing pressure causing an abrupt shift towards extensive soil degradation. It is shown that changes in spatio-temporal patterns occur well ahead of this catastrophic transition. A distributed model describing the coupled processes of vegetation growth and geomorphological denudation is adapted. The model uses well-studied simple process representations for vegetation and geomorphology. A logistic growth model calculates vegetation cover as a function of grazing pressure and vegetation growth rate. Evolution of the soil thickness is modelled by soil creep and wash processes, as a function of net rain reaching the surface. The vegetation and soil system are coupled by 1) decreasing vegetation growth with decreasing soil thickness and 2) increasing soil wash with

  17. Human Response to Emergency Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorensen, J.

    2009-12-01

    Almost every day people evacuate from their homes, businesses or other sites, even ships, in response to actual or predicted threats or hazards. Evacuation is the primary protective action utilized in large-scale emergencies such as hurricanes, floods, tornados, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or wildfires. Although often precautionary, protecting human lives by temporally relocating populations before or during times of threat remains a major emergency management strategy. One of the most formidable challenges facing emergency officials is evacuating residents for a fast-moving and largely unpredictable event such as a wildfire or a local tsunami. How to issue effective warnings to those at risk in time for residents to take appropriate action is an on-going problem. To do so, some communities have instituted advanced communications systems that include reverse telephone call-down systems or other alerting systems to notify at-risk residents of imminent threats. This presentation examines the effectiveness of using reverse telephone call-down systems for warning San Diego residents of wildfires in the October of 2007. This is the first systematic study conducted on this topic and is based on interviews with 1200 households in the evacuation areas.

  18. The social impacts of the heat-health watch/warning system in Phoenix, Arizona: assessing the perceived risk and response of the public.

    PubMed

    Kalkstein, Adam J; Sheridan, Scott C

    2007-10-01

    Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States. Although previous research suggests that social influences affect human responses to natural disaster warnings, no studies have examined the social impacts of heat or heat warnings on a population. Here, 201 surveys were distributed in Metropolitan Phoenix to determine the social impacts of the heat warning system, or more specifically, to gauge risk perception and warning response. Consistent with previous research, increased risk perception of heat results in increased response to a warning. Different social factors such as sex, race, age, and income all play an important role in determining whether or not people will respond to a warning. In particular, there is a strong sense of perceived risk to the heat among Hispanics which translates to increased response when heat warnings are issued. Based on these findings, suggestions are presented to help improve the Phoenix Heat Warning System.

  19. NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2005-01-01

    Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a

  20. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  1. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  2. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  3. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  4. 46 CFR 154.1830 - Warning sign.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning sign. 154.1830 Section 154.1830 Shipping COAST... SELF-PROPELLED VESSELS CARRYING BULK LIQUEFIED GASES Operations § 154.1830 Warning sign. (a) The master... a warning sign: (1) At the gangway facing the shore so that the sign may be seen from the shore; and...

  5. Red warning for air pollution in China: Exploring residents' perceptions of the first two red warnings in Beijing.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Hanping; Wang, Fangping; Niu, Chence; Wang, Han; Zhang, Xiaoxue

    2018-02-01

    Air pollution early warnings have been issued in China to mitigate the effects of high pollution days. Public perceptions and views about early warning signals can affect individual behaviors and play a major role in the public's response to air pollution risks. This study examined public attitudes and responses to the first two red warnings for air pollution in Beijing in 2015. An online survey was sent out, and 664 respondents (response rate = 90%) provided their perspectives on the red warnings. Descriptive statistics, sign tests and binary logit models were used to analyze the data. More than half of the respondents reported that their life and work were affected by the red warning in December 2015. In contrast to their perceptions about the second red warning period, the public thought that the first red warning should have been issued earlier and that the number of consecutive days of warnings should have been reduced. The respondents also recommended that instead of reducing the number of red warnings, the red warning emergency measures should be adjusted. Specifically, the public preferred the installation of air purifiers in schools rather than closing schools and strengthening road flushing and dust pollution controls over restrictions on driving. Data analyses were conducted to examine the affected groups and different groups' perceptions of the necessity of implementing emergency measures. The results indicated that men and more educated respondents were more likely to be affected by driving limitations, and men were less supportive of these limitations. The age and education of respondents were significantly negatively associated with the opinion that schools should be closed, whereas wealthier respondents were more supportive of school closings. The finding of a negative attitude among the public toward the first two red warnings may be used to help local governments modify protective measures and pollution mitigation initiatives to increase

  6. Establishment and Practical Application of Flood Warning Stage in Taiwan's River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Sheng-Hsueh; Chia Yeh, Keh-

    2017-04-01

    In the face of extreme flood events or the possible impact of climate change, non-engineering disaster prevention and early warning work is particularly important. Taiwan is an island topography with more than 3,900 meters of high mountains. The length of the river is less than 100 kilometers. Most of the watershed catchment time is less than 24 hours, which belongs to the river with steep slope and rapid flood. Every year in summer and autumn, several typhoon events invade Taiwan. Typhoons often result in rainfall events in excess of 100 mm/hr or 250 mm/3hr. In the face of Taiwan's terrain and extreme rainfall events, flooding is difficult to avoid. Therefore, most of the river has embankment protection, so that people do not have to face every year flooding caused by economic and life and property losses. However, the river embankment protection is limited. With the increase of the hydrological data, the design criteria for the embankment protection standards in the past was 100 year of flood return period and is now gradually reduced to 25 or 50 year of flood return period. The river authorities are not easy to rise the existing embankment height. The safety of the river embankment in Taiwan is determined by the establishment of the flood warning stage to cope with the possible increase in annual floods and the impact of extreme hydrological events. The flood warning stage is equal to the flood control elevation minus the flood rise rate multiply by the flood early warning time. The control elevation can be the top of the embankment, the design flood level of the river, the embankment gap of the river section, the height of the bridge beam bottom, etc. The flood rise rate is consider the factors such as hydrological stochastic and uncertain rainfall and the effect of flood discharge operation on the flood in the watershed catchment area. The maximum value of the water level difference between the two hours or five hours before the peak value of the analysis

  7. Solar Warning Architecture for Manned Missions to Mars

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    public discussions of manned missions to return to the Moon, explore near-earth asteroids , and even visit Mars, a deep-space solar weather warning...mission planning, and libration points. In addition, the limited previous analysis on this problem was mined for information. 2.2 Radiation Effects...behind the Earth, on its orbital path. These two libration points are stable along all 3 axes, leading some to theorize there may be asteroids or

  8. Reactions to graphic health warnings in the United States.

    PubMed

    Nonnemaker, James M; Choiniere, Conrad J; Farrelly, Matthew C; Kamyab, Kian; Davis, Kevin C

    2015-02-01

    This study reports consumer reactions to the graphic health warnings selected by the Food and Drug Administration to be placed on cigarette packs in the United States. We recruited three sets of respondents for an experimental study from a national opt-in e-mail list sample: (i) current smokers aged 25 or older, (ii) young adult smokers aged 18-24 and (iii) youth aged 13-17 who are current smokers or who may be susceptible to initiation of smoking. Participants were randomly assigned to be exposed to a pack of cigarettes with one of nine graphic health warnings or with a text-only warning statement. All three age groups had overall strong negative emotional (ß = 4.7, P < 0.001 for adults; ß = 4.6, P < 0.001 for young adults and ß = 4.0, P < 0.001 for youth) and cognitive (ß = 2.4, P < 0.001 for adults; ß = 3.0, P < 0.001 for young adults and ß = 4.6, P < 0.001 for youth) reactions to the proposed labels. The strong negative emotional and cognitive reactions following a single exposure to the graphic health warnings suggest that, with repeated exposures over time, graphic health warnings may influence smokers' beliefs, intentions and behaviors. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Evaluating the Real-time and Offline Performance of the Virtual Seismologist Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cua, G.; Fischer, M.; Heaton, T.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) algorithm is a Bayesian approach to regional, network-based earthquake early warning (EEW). Bayes' theorem as applied in the VS algorithm states that the most probable source estimates at any given time is a combination of contributions from relatively static prior information that does not change over the timescale of earthquake rupture and a likelihood function that evolves with time to take into account incoming pick and amplitude observations from the on-going earthquake. Potentially useful types of prior information include network topology or station health status, regional hazard maps, earthquake forecasts, and the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship. The VS codes provide magnitude and location estimates once picks are available at 4 stations; these source estimates are subsequently updated each second. The algorithm predicts the geographical distribution of peak ground acceleration and velocity using the estimated magnitude and location and appropriate ground motion prediction equations; the peak ground motion estimates are also updated each second. Implementation of the VS algorithm in California and Switzerland is funded by the Seismic Early Warning for Europe (SAFER) project. The VS method is one of three EEW algorithms whose real-time performance is being evaluated and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) EEW project. A crucial component of operational EEW algorithms is the ability to distinguish between noise and earthquake-related signals in real-time. We discuss various empirical approaches that allow the VS algorithm to operate in the presence of noise. Real-time operation of the VS codes at the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) began in July 2008. On average, the VS algorithm provides initial magnitude, location, origin time, and ground motion distribution estimates within 17 seconds of the earthquake origin time. These initial estimate times are dominated by the time for 4

  10. Mission Design and Analysis for Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hupp, Ryan; DeWald, Spencer; Wie, Bong; Barbee, Brent W.

    2014-01-01

    Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) approximately 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total delta V of approximately 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

  11. The Influence of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Warnings: A Randomized Trial of Adolescents' Choices and Beliefs.

    PubMed

    VanEpps, Eric M; Roberto, Christina A

    2016-11-01

    California, New York, and the cities of San Francisco and Baltimore have introduced bills requiring health-related warning labels for sugar-sweetened beverages. This study measures the extent to which these warning labels influence adolescents' beliefs and hypothetical choices. Participants completed an online survey in which they chose a beverage in a hypothetical vending machine task, rated perceptions of different beverages, and indicated interest in coupons for beverages. Data were collected and analyzed in 2015. A total of 2,202 demographically diverse adolescents aged 12-18 years completed the online survey. Participants were randomly assigned to one of six conditions: (1) no warning label; (2) calorie label; (3-6) one of four text versions of a warning label (e.g. Drinking beverages with added sugar(s) contributes to obesity, diabetes, and tooth decay). Hypothetical choices, perceptions of beverages, interest in coupons, and endorsement of warning label policies were assessed. Controlling for frequency of beverage purchases, significantly fewer adolescents chose a sugar-sweetened beverage in three of the four warning label conditions (65%, 63%, and 61%) than in the no label (77%) condition. Adolescents in the four warning label conditions chose fewer sugar-sweetened beverage coupons and believed that sugar-sweetened beverages were less likely to help them lead a healthy life and had more added sugar compared with the no label condition. Health-related warning labels on sugar-sweetened beverages improved adolescents' recognition of the sugar content of such beverages and reduced hypothetical choices to buy sugar-sweetened beverages. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Adapting ISA system warnings to enhance user acceptance.

    PubMed

    Jiménez, Felipe; Liang, Yingzhen; Aparicio, Francisco

    2012-09-01

    Inappropriate speed is a major cause of traffic accidents. Different measures have been considered to control traffic speed, and intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) systems are one of the alternatives. These systems know the speed limits and try to improve compliance with them. This paper deals with an informative ISA system that provides the driver with an advance warning before reaching a road section with singular characteristics that require a lower safe speed than the current speed. In spite of the extensive tests performed using ISA systems, few works show how warnings can be adapted to the driver. This paper describes a method to adapt warning parameters (safe speed on curves, zone of influence of a singular stretch, deceleration process and reaction time) to normal driving behavior. The method is based on a set of tests with and without the ISA system. This adjustment, as well as the analysis of driver acceptance before and after the adaptation and changes in driver behavior (changes in speed and path) resulting from the tested ISA regarding a driver's normal driving style, is shown in this paper. The main conclusion is that acceptance by drivers increased significantly after redefining the warning parameters, but the effect of speed homogenization was not reduced. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. [Early warning on measles through the neural networks].

    PubMed

    Yu, Bin; Ding, Chun; Wei, Shan-bo; Chen, Bang-hua; Liu, Pu-lin; Luo, Tong-yong; Wang, Jia-gang; Pan, Zhi-wei; Lu, Jun-an

    2011-01-01

    To discuss the effects on early warning of measles, using the neural networks. Based on the available data through monthly and weekly reports on measles from January 1986 to August 2006 in Wuhan city. The modal was developed using the neural networks to predict and analyze the prevalence and incidence of measles. When the dynamic time series modal was established with back propagation (BP) networks consisting of two layers, if p was assigned as 9, the convergence speed was acceptable and the correlation coefficient was equal to 0.85. It was more acceptable for monthly forecasting the specific value, but better for weekly forecasting the classification under probabilistic neural networks (PNN). When data was big enough to serve the purpose, it seemed more feasible for early warning using the two-layer BP networks. However, when data was not enough, then PNN could be used for the purpose of prediction. This method seemed feasible to be used in the system for early warning.

  14. Backup Warning Signals: Driver Perception and Response

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1996-08-01

    This report describes the findings of three experiments that concern driver reaction to acoustic signals that might be used for backup warning devices. Intelligent warning devices are under development that will use vehicle-based sensors to warn back...

  15. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  16. NWS - Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov Websites

    Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington Watch Flash Flood Warning* Coastal/Flood Watch Coastal/Flood Warning Small Stream Flood Advisory

  17. Using signal detection theory to understand grade crossing warning time and motorist stopping behavior.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-02-01

    Motorist error or poor judgment is a significant causal factor in highway-rail grade crossing collisions. Crashes at grade crossings : equipped with warning devices often involve motorists who drive around gates or across railroad tracks while flashi...

  18. A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

    2007-12-01

    In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to

  19. 21 CFR 740.2 - Conspicuousness of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Conspicuousness of warning statements. 740.2... (CONTINUED) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.2 Conspicuousness of warning statements. (a) A warning statement shall appear on the label prominently and conspicuously as compared to...

  20. 21 CFR 740.2 - Conspicuousness of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Conspicuousness of warning statements. 740.2... (CONTINUED) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.2 Conspicuousness of warning statements. (a) A warning statement shall appear on the label prominently and conspicuously as compared to...

  1. 21 CFR 740.2 - Conspicuousness of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Conspicuousness of warning statements. 740.2... (CONTINUED) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.2 Conspicuousness of warning statements. (a) A warning statement shall appear on the label prominently and conspicuously as compared to...

  2. 21 CFR 740.2 - Conspicuousness of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2011-04-01 2010-04-01 true Conspicuousness of warning statements. 740.2... (CONTINUED) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.2 Conspicuousness of warning statements. (a) A warning statement shall appear on the label prominently and conspicuously as compared to...

  3. 21 CFR 740.2 - Conspicuousness of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Conspicuousness of warning statements. 740.2... (CONTINUED) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.2 Conspicuousness of warning statements. (a) A warning statement shall appear on the label prominently and conspicuously as compared to...

  4. A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the

  5. Forecasts and Warnings of Extreme Solar Storms at the Sun

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lundstedt, H.

    2015-12-01

    The most pressing space weather forecasts and warnings are those of the most intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections. However, in trying to develop these forecasts and warnings, we are confronted to many fundamental questions. Some of those are: How to define an observable measure for an extreme solar storm? How extreme can a solar storm become and how long is the build up time? How to make forecasts and warnings? Many have contributed to clarifying these general questions. In his presentation we will describe our latest results on the topological complexity of magnetic fields and the use of SDO SHARP parameters. The complexity concept will then be used to discuss the second question. Finally we will describe probability estimates of extreme solar storms.

  6. Reducing online identity disclosure using warnings.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Sandra; Zhu, Feng; Kolimi, Swapna

    2014-09-01

    In an experimental design, we tested whether written warnings can reduce the amount of identity information exposure online. A psychological attack on information privacy that has been shown to be effective in previous research was launched. This attack took advantage of the fact that people respond to certain types of requests in a relatively automatic, or mindless, fashion. The experiment manipulated the word that was used in the alert header: "warning", "caution", or "hazard". All warnings proved to be effective in reducing disclosure, but "hazard" proved to be most effective. Also warnings were more effective in reducing disclosure of driver's license numbers than email addresses. The discussion (a) provides tentative conclusions why these patterns were obtained, (b) suggests how to design warnings in cyber-environments, and (c) addresses future possibilities for research on this topic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  7. Recall of health warnings in smokeless tobacco ads.

    PubMed

    Truitt, Linda; Hamilton, William L; Johnston, P R; Bacani, C P; Crawford, S O; Hozik, L; Celebucki, Carolyn

    2002-06-01

    To determine the effects of health warning characteristics in smokeless tobacco magazine print ads on warning recall, and the implications for current US Federal regulations. Subjects examined two distracter ads and one of nine randomly assigned smokeless tobacco ads varying in health warning presence, size (8 to 18 point font), and contrast (low versus high)-including no health warning. They were then interviewed about ad content using recall and recognition questions. A convenience sample of 895 English speaking males aged 16-24 years old who were intercepted at seven shopping malls throughout Massachusetts during May 2000. Proven aided recall, or recall of a health warning and correct recognition of the warning message among distracters, and false recall. Controlling for covariates such as education, employment/student status, and Hispanic background, proven aided recall increased significantly with font size; doubling size from 10 to 20 point font would increase recall from 63% to 76%. Although not statistically significant, recall was somewhat better for high contrast warnings. Ten per cent of the sample mistakenly recalled the warning where none existed. As demonstrated by substantially greater recall among ads that included health warnings over ads that had none, health warnings retained their value to consumers despite years of exposure (that can produce false recall). Larger health warnings would enhance recall, and the proposed model can be used to estimate potential recall that affects communication, perceived health risk, and behaviour modification.

  8. The design of the light-flash warning light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Junli

    2018-05-01

    In today's society, the warning light has been used widely in people's daily life and various industries and agricultures. It is important to protect people's life and security. Light-flashing warning light is a kind of warning light control equipment which can control warning light automatically open and work in the state of blinking after dark, and it can automatically shut down after the dawn. It can achieve the flashing light automatic control and dual function. At present, light-flashing warning lights are mainly used in the projects of municipal construction. It is helpful to warn people and vehicles that passed in the construction site and ensure personal safety through using light-flashing warning light. Its design is simple, its performance is stable and it is also very convince to use it.

  9. Systematic Review of Measures Used in Pictorial Cigarette Pack Warning Experiments.

    PubMed

    Francis, Diane B; Hall, Marissa G; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Brewer, Noel T

    2017-10-01

    We sought to describe characteristics and psychometric properties of measures used in pictorial cigarette pack warning experiments and provide recommendations for future studies. Our systematic review identified 68 pictorial cigarette pack warning experiments conducted between 2000 and 2016 in 22 countries. Two independent coders coded all studies on study features, including sample characteristics, theoretical framework, and constructs assessed. We also coded measurement characteristics, including construct, number of items, source, reliability, and validity. We identified 278 measures representing 61 constructs. The most commonly assessed construct categories were warning reactions (62% of studies) and perceived effectiveness (60%). The most commonly used outcomes were affective reactions (35%), perceived likelihood of harm (22%), intention to quit smoking (22%), perceptions that warnings motivate people to quit smoking (18%), and credibility (16%). Only 4 studies assessed smoking behavior. More than half (54%) of all measures were single items. For multi-item measures, studies reported reliability data 68% of the time (mean α = 0.88, range α = 0.68-0.98). Studies reported sources of measures only 33% of the time and rarely reported validity data. Of 68 studies, 37 (54%) mentioned a theory as informing the study. Our review found great variability in constructs and measures used to evaluate the impact of cigarette pack pictorial warnings. Many measures were single items with unknown psychometric properties. Recommendations for future studies include a greater emphasis on theoretical models that inform measurement, use of reliable and validated (preferably multi-item) measures, and better reporting of measure sources. Robust and consistent measurement is important for building a strong, cumulative evidence base to support pictorial cigarette pack warning policies. This systematic review of experimental studies of pictorial cigarette warnings demonstrates the

  10. Relationship between the start times of flares and CMEs to the time of potential radiation hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, G.; Zheng, Y.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

    2013-12-01

    Solar flares, short-term outbursts of energy of the Sun, and coronal mass ejections (CME), massive bursts of solar matter, are two solar phenomena that are known to increase solar energetic particles in space. Increased solar energetic particles cause immense radiation that poses a serious threat to astronauts in space, radio communication signals, and passengers on high-latitude flights on the Earth. The relationship between the start times of flares and CMEs to the time of potential radiation hazards was investigated to determine how much warning time is available. Additionally, this project compared the difference between these relationships for four energy levels of solar energetic particles: proton flux exceeding 10 MeV, 30 MeV, 50 MeV and 100 MeV. This project gathered data of 22 recent SEP events between 2010 and 2012 and the parameters of associated CMEs and flares. Through the use of IDL (Interactive Data Language) programming, thorough analysis was conducted, including 2-sample t-tests and Kruskal-Wallis tests for 2 or more samples. The average lead time to warn humans of possible radiation hazard from the detection of a flare and a CME occurrence was found to be around 12 to 20 hours. The lead time was the greatest for the lowest energy level, though the differences in energy levels and that between the lead times for CME and flares were found to be statistically insignificant with p-values exceeding the alpha value of 0.20.

  11. Is More Better? — Night Vision Enhancement System’s Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers’ workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers. PMID:21050616

  12. 21 CFR 740.1 - Establishment of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Establishment of warning statements. 740.1 Section...) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.1 Establishment of warning statements. (a) The label of a cosmetic product shall bear a warning statement whenever necessary or appropriate to prevent...

  13. 21 CFR 740.1 - Establishment of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Establishment of warning statements. 740.1 Section...) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.1 Establishment of warning statements. (a) The label of a cosmetic product shall bear a warning statement whenever necessary or appropriate to prevent...

  14. 21 CFR 740.1 - Establishment of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Establishment of warning statements. 740.1 Section...) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.1 Establishment of warning statements. (a) The label of a cosmetic product shall bear a warning statement whenever necessary or appropriate to prevent...

  15. 21 CFR 740.1 - Establishment of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2011-04-01 2010-04-01 true Establishment of warning statements. 740.1 Section...) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.1 Establishment of warning statements. (a) The label of a cosmetic product shall bear a warning statement whenever necessary or appropriate to prevent...

  16. 21 CFR 740.1 - Establishment of warning statements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Establishment of warning statements. 740.1 Section...) COSMETICS COSMETIC PRODUCT WARNING STATEMENTS General § 740.1 Establishment of warning statements. (a) The label of a cosmetic product shall bear a warning statement whenever necessary or appropriate to prevent...

  17. A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

    2016-06-01

    This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

  18. Early Warning for Large Magnitude Earthquakes: Is it feasible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Kanamori, H.

    2011-12-01

    The mega-thrust, Mw 9.0, 2011 Tohoku earthquake has re-opened the discussion among the scientific community about the effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems, when applied to such large events. Many EEW systems are now under-testing or -development worldwide and most of them are based on the real-time measurement of ground motion parameters in a few second window after the P-wave arrival. Currently, we are using the initial Peak Displacement (Pd), and the Predominant Period (τc), among other parameters, to rapidly estimate the earthquake magnitude and damage potential. A well known problem about the real-time estimation of the magnitude is the parameter saturation. Several authors have shown that the scaling laws between early warning parameters and magnitude are robust and effective up to magnitude 6.5-7; the correlation, however, has not yet been verified for larger events. The Tohoku earthquake occurred near the East coast of Honshu, Japan, on the subduction boundary between the Pacific and the Okhotsk plates. The high quality Kik- and K- networks provided a large quantity of strong motion records of the mainshock, with a wide azimuthal coverage both along the Japan coast and inland. More than 300 3-component accelerograms have been available, with an epicentral distance ranging from about 100 km up to more than 500 km. This earthquake thus presents an optimal case study for testing the physical bases of early warning and to investigate the feasibility of a real-time estimation of earthquake size and damage potential even for M > 7 earthquakes. In the present work we used the acceleration waveform data of the main shock for stations along the coast, up to 200 km epicentral distance. We measured the early warning parameters, Pd and τc, within different time windows, starting from 3 seconds, and expanding the testing time window up to 30 seconds. The aim is to verify the correlation of these parameters with Peak Ground Velocity and Magnitude

  19. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  20. Meteotsunamis, destructive tsunami-like waves: from observations and simulations towards a warning system (MESSI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica

    2016-04-01

    Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.

  1. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  2. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  3. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  4. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  5. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  6. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  7. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  8. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  9. 30 CFR 57.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 57.14201 Section 57... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 57.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  10. 30 CFR 56.14201 - Conveyor start-up warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Conveyor start-up warnings. 56.14201 Section 56... Equipment Safety Practices and Operational Procedures § 56.14201 Conveyor start-up warnings. (a) When the... audible warning shall be installed and operated to warn persons that the conveyor will be started. Within...

  11. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

  12. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

  13. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

  14. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... NECESSARY FOR SAFE OPERATION Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Electrical Wiring § 393.19 Hazard warning signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate...

  15. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... NECESSARY FOR SAFE OPERATION Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Electrical Wiring § 393.19 Hazard warning signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate...

  16. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  17. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... NECESSARY FOR SAFE OPERATION Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Electrical Wiring § 393.19 Hazard warning signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate...

  18. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  19. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... NECESSARY FOR SAFE OPERATION Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Electrical Wiring § 393.19 Hazard warning signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate...

  20. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  1. 49 CFR 393.19 - Hazard warning signals.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Hazard warning signals. 393.19 Section 393.19... NECESSARY FOR SAFE OPERATION Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Electrical Wiring § 393.19 Hazard warning signals. The hazard warning signal operating unit on each commercial motor vehicle shall operate...

  2. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  3. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  4. New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faillettaz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

  5. Early warning system for aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

    1994-01-01

    A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

  6. Adolescents' Responses to Pictorial Warnings on Their Parents' Cigarette Packs.

    PubMed

    Peebles, Kathryn; Hall, Marissa G; Pepper, Jessica K; Byron, M Justin; Noar, Seth M; Brewer, Noel T

    2016-12-01

    Pictorial cigarette pack warnings are a promising policy solution to increase smoking cessation among adults. However, little is known regarding adolescents' responses to pictorial warnings, particularly in real-world settings. Participants were 112 adolescent children, ages 13-17, whose parents received either text-only warnings on the side of their cigarette packs or pictorial warnings on the top half of the front and back of their cigarette packs for 4 weeks as part of a trial. We measured adolescents' recall and recognition of these warnings, negative emotional reactions to the warnings, perceived effectiveness of the warnings, social interactions about the warnings, and smoking risk beliefs. Adolescents accurately recalled pictorial warnings more often than text-only warnings (82% vs. 19%, p < .001). Recognition of warnings was also higher for pictorial than text-only warnings (82% vs. 34%, p < .001). Pictorial warnings drew greater attention (p < .001), elicited greater negative emotional reactions (p < .05), and sparked more social interactions (p < .01) than text-only warnings. Pictorial warnings on cigarette packs may have important effects on adolescent children of smokers. Future research should further investigate the impact of such messages on adolescents' susceptibility to smoking initiation and interest in quitting smoking, particularly as the United States and other countries work to implement pictorial warning regulations. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Adolescents' Responses to Pictorial Warnings on Their Parents' Cigarette Packs

    PubMed Central

    Peebles, Kathryn; Hall, Marissa G.; Pepper, Jessica K.; Byron, M. Justin; Noar, Seth M.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Pictorial cigarette pack warnings are a promising policy solution to increase smoking cessation among adults. However, little is known regarding adolescents' responses to pictorial warnings, particularly in real-world settings. Methods Participants were 112 adolescent children, ages 13–17, whose parents received either text-only warnings on the side of their cigarette packs or pictorial warnings on the top half of the front and back of their cigarette packs for 4 weeks as part of a trial. We measured adolescents' recall and recognition of these warnings, negative emotional reactions to the warnings, perceived effectiveness of the warnings, social interactions about the warnings, and smoking risk beliefs. Results Adolescents accurately recalled pictorial warnings more often than text-only warnings (82% vs. 19%, p < .001). Recognition of warnings was also higher for pictorial than text-only warnings (82% vs. 34%, p < .001). Pictorial warnings drew greater attention (p < .001), elicited greater negative emotional reactions (p < .05), and sparked more social interactions (p < .01) than text-only warnings. Conclusions Pictorial warnings on cigarette packs may have important effects on adolescent children of smokers. Future research should further investigate the impact of such messages on adolescents' susceptibility to smoking initiation and interest in quitting smoking, particularly as the United States and other countries work to implement pictorial warning regulations. PMID:27646499

  8. An entropy decision approach in flash flood warning: rainfall thresholds definition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montesarchio, V.; Napolitano, F.; Ridolfi, E.

    2009-09-01

    Flash floods events are floods characterised by very rapid response of the basins to the storms, and often they involve loss of life and damage to common and private properties. Due to the specific space-time scale of this kind of flood, generally only a short lead time is available for triggering civil protection measures. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section. The overcoming of these values could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk, so it is possible to compare directly the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running on line real time forecasting systems. This study is focused on the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated minimising an utility function based on the informative entropy concept. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warning, false alarms and missed alarms.

  9. HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

    PubMed

    Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

    2013-02-01

    Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

  10. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

  11. 47 CFR 95.653 - Instructions and warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Instructions and warnings. 95.653 Section 95... PERSONAL RADIO SERVICES Technical Regulations Certification Requirements § 95.653 Instructions and warnings... violation of the rules. (2) Warnings concerning any adjustment that could result in a violation of the rules...

  12. 47 CFR 95.653 - Instructions and warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Instructions and warnings. 95.653 Section 95... PERSONAL RADIO SERVICES Technical Regulations Certification Requirements § 95.653 Instructions and warnings... violation of the rules. (2) Warnings concerning any adjustment that could result in a violation of the rules...

  13. 47 CFR 95.653 - Instructions and warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Instructions and warnings. 95.653 Section 95... PERSONAL RADIO SERVICES Technical Regulations Certification Requirements § 95.653 Instructions and warnings... violation of the rules. (2) Warnings concerning any adjustment that could result in a violation of the rules...

  14. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

  15. 47 CFR 95.653 - Instructions and warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Instructions and warnings. 95.653 Section 95... PERSONAL RADIO SERVICES Technical Regulations Certification Requirements § 95.653 Instructions and warnings... violation of the rules. (2) Warnings concerning any adjustment that could result in a violation of the rules...

  16. 47 CFR 95.653 - Instructions and warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Instructions and warnings. 95.653 Section 95... PERSONAL RADIO SERVICES Technical Regulations Certification Requirements § 95.653 Instructions and warnings... violation of the rules. (2) Warnings concerning any adjustment that could result in a violation of the rules...

  17. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

  18. Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

    2016-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The

  19. Do more graphic and aversive cigarette health warning labels affect Brazilian smokers' likelihood of quitting?

    PubMed

    Szklo, André Salem; Volchan, Eliane; Thrasher, James F; Perez, Cristina; Szklo, Moysés; de Almeida, Liz Maria

    2016-09-01

    Between 2008 and 2013, Brazil experienced a large decline in smoking prevalence, with an innovative round of aversive pictorial health warnings implemented on cigarette packs and at points of sale in 2009. The objective of this study was to examine changes over time in the distribution of quitting attempts and self-reported thoughts about quitting due to health warnings among current smokers. We conducted a pre-post study to evaluate data from two nationally-representative surveys conducted in 2008 and 2013. Responses to questions on smokers' quitting attempts in the last year (yes vs. no) and whether health warnings led them to think about quitting in the last month (yes vs. no) were combined into four categories, for which the distribution of the Brazilian smoking population by year was estimated. A multinomial model was used to obtain proportions for each category, adjusted by socio-demographic variables and nicotine dependence. The proportion of smokers who reported making a quitting attempt in the last year and stated that health warnings led them think about quitting smoking statistically increased over time (from 30.0% to 33.1%; p-value=0.010). The percentage of those who answered "no" to these two questions also increased over time (from 23.5% to 32.9%; p-value≤0.001). These findings suggest that innovative warnings introduced in Brazil likely served as a "reminder" for continuing to think about cessation among those who attempted to quit in the last year. These warnings may have also triggered more avoidance of thinking about their contents than the previous warnings, which some studies have found to promote subsequent quitting activity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Prediction of Flood Warning in Taiwan Using Nonlinear SVM with Simulated Annealing Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C.

    2013-12-01

    The issue of the floods is important in Taiwan. It is because the narrow and high topography of the island make lots of rivers steep in Taiwan. The tropical depression likes typhoon always causes rivers to flood. Prediction of river flow under the extreme rainfall circumstances is important for government to announce the warning of flood. Every time typhoon passed through Taiwan, there were always floods along some rivers. The warning is classified to three levels according to the warning water levels in Taiwan. The propose of this study is to predict the level of floods warning from the information of precipitation, rainfall duration and slope of riverbed. To classify the level of floods warning by the above-mentioned information and modeling the problems, a machine learning model, nonlinear Support vector machine (SVM), is formulated to classify the level of floods warning. In addition, simulated annealing (SA), a probabilistic heuristic algorithm, is used to determine the optimal parameter of the SVM model. A case study of flooding-trend rivers of different gradients in Taiwan is conducted. The contribution of this SVM model with simulated annealing is capable of making efficient announcement for flood warning and keeping the danger of flood from residents along the rivers.

  1. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing warning...

  2. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing warning...

  3. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing warning...

  4. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing warning...

  5. 21 CFR 330.2 - Pregnancy-nursing warning.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Pregnancy-nursing warning. 330.2 Section 330.2 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS... AND NOT MISBRANDED General Provisions § 330.2 Pregnancy-nursing warning. A pregnancy-nursing warning...

  6. The Warning System in Disaster Situations: A Selective Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    DISASTERS, *WARNING SYSTEMS), CIVIL DEFENSE, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, REACTION(PSYCHOLOGY), FACTOR ANALYSIS, CLASSIFICATION, STATISTICAL DATA, TIME ... MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, DAMAGE, CONTROL SYSTEMS, THREAT EVALUATION, DECISION MAKING, DATA PROCESSING, COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

  7. Social Interactions Sparked by Pictorial Warnings on Cigarette Packs

    PubMed Central

    Hall, Marissa G.; Peebles, Kathryn; Bach, Laura E.; Noar, Seth M.; Ribisl, Kurt M.; Brewer, Noel T.

    2015-01-01

    The Message Impact Framework suggests that social interactions may offer smokers the opportunity to process pictorial warnings on cigarette packs more deeply. We aimed to describe adult smokers’ social interactions about pictorial cigarette pack warnings in two longitudinal pilot studies. In Pilot Study 1, 30 smokers used cigarette packs with one of nine pictorial warnings for two weeks. In Pilot Study 2, 46 smokers used cigarette packs with one of five pictorial warnings for four weeks. Nearly all smokers (97%/96% in Pilot Study 1/2) talked about the warnings with other people, with the most common people being friends (67%/87%) and spouses/significant others (34%/42%). Pilot Study 2 found that 26% of smokers talked about the warnings with strangers. Discussions about the health effects of smoking and quitting smoking were more frequent during the first week of exposure to pictorial warnings than in the week prior to beginning the study (both p < 0.05). Pictorial warnings sparked social interactions about the warnings, the health effects of smoking, and quitting smoking, indicating that pictorial warnings may act as a social intervention reaching beyond the individual. Future research should examine social interactions as a potential mediator of the impact of pictorial warnings on smoking behavior. PMID:26506363

  8. Real-Time Earthquake Risk Mitigation Of Infrastructures Using Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zulfikar, Can; Pinar, Ali; Tunc, Suleyman; Erdik, Mustafa

    2014-05-01

    The Istanbul EEW network consisting of 10 inland and 5 OBS strong motion stations located close to the Main Marmara Fault zone is operated by KOERI. Data transmission between the remote stations and the base station at KOERI is provided both with satellite and fiber optic cable systems. The continuous on-line data from these stations is used to provide real time warning for emerging potentially disastrous earthquakes. The data transmission time from the remote stations to the KOERI data center is a few milliseconds through fiber optic lines and less than a second via satellites. The early warning signal (consisting three alarm levels) is communicated to the appropriate servo shut-down systems of the receipent facilities, that automatically decide proper action based on the alarm level. Istanbul Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the EEW signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867 km of gas lines with 550 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. State of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the pipelines are detected. Since 2005, buildings in Istanbul using natural gas are required to install seismometers that automatically cut natural gas flow when certain thresholds are exceeded. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 581 district regulator sites. The SCADA system of IGDAŞ receives the EEW signal from KOERI and decide the proper actions according to the previously specified ground acceleration levels. Presently, KOERI sends EEW signal to the SCADA system of IGDAS Natural Gas Network of Istanbul. The EEW signal

  9. Forward collision warning requirements project : refining the CAMP crash alert timing approach by examining "last second" braking and lane change maneuvers under various kinematic conditions

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2003-01-01

    This final report describes a follow-on study to the previous Crash Avoidance Metrics Partnership (CAMP) human factors work addressing Forward Collision Warning (FCW) timing requirements. This research extends this work by gathering not only "last-se...

  10. Utility of flood warning systems for emergency management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Menoni, Scira

    2010-05-01

    The presentation is focused on a simple and crucial question for warning systems: are flood and hydrological modelling and forecasting helpful to manage flood events? Indeed, it is well known that a warning process can be invalidated by inadequate forecasts so that the accuracy and robustness of the previsional model is a key issue for any flood warning procedure. However, one problem still arises at this perspective: when forecasts can be considered to be adequate? According to Murphy (1993, Wea. Forecasting 8, 281-293), forecasts hold no intrinsic value but they acquire it through their ability to influence the decisions made by their users. Moreover, we can add that forecasts value depends on the particular problem at stake showing, this way, a multifaceted nature. As a result, forecasts verification should not be seen as a universal process, instead it should be tailored to the particular context in which forecasts are implemented. This presentation focuses on warning problems in mountain regions, whereas the short time which is distinctive of flood events makes the provision of adequate forecasts particularly significant. In this context, the quality of a forecast is linked to its capability to reduce the impact of a flood by improving the correctness of the decision about issuing (or not) a warning as well as of the implementation of a proper set of actions aimed at lowering potential flood damages. The present study evaluates the performance of a real flood forecasting system from this perspective. In detail, a back analysis of past flood events and available verification tools have been implemented. The final objective was to evaluate the system ability to support appropriate decisions with respect not only to the flood characteristics but also to the peculiarities of the area at risk as well as to the uncertainty of forecasts. This meant to consider also flood damages and forecasting uncertainty among the decision variables. Last but not least, the

  11. Self-reported exposure to tobacco warning labels among U.S. middle and high school students.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Sarah E; Wu, Charles C; Coleman, Blair N; Choiniere, Conrad J

    2014-08-01

    Warning labels on tobacco products are a means to communicate information about the negative health effects of tobacco use to current and potential users. Most tobacco use begins in early adolescence, making it particularly important to understand the degree to which warning labels reach adolescents. To examine the extent to which youth report (1) seeing the current warnings on cigarettes and smokeless tobacco (SLT) products in the U.S. and (2) that seeing warnings makes them think about the health risks associated with tobacco use. Exposure to warning labels on cigarettes and SLT, as well as the degree to which adolescents report thinking about health risks in response to warnings, was examined among U.S. middle and high school students using data from the 2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) and analyzed in 2013. Current data suggest that less than half of adolescents who saw a cigarette pack (46.9%) or SLT product (40.3%) reported seeing the warning label "most of the time" or "always." Among adolescents who reported seeing a warning, less than one third reported that cigarette (30.4%) or SLT (25.2%) warning labels made them think about health risks "a lot." These rates were even lower among current tobacco users (<14%). Current warning labels for cigarettes and SLT could be improved by implementing warnings that incorporate features that make them salient and more likely to evoke thoughts about health risks. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning signal display. 218.73 Section 218.73..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD OPERATING PRACTICES Protection of Occupied Camp Cars § 218.73 Warning signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black...

  13. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

  14. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  15. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning signal display. 218.73 Section 218.73..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD OPERATING PRACTICES Protection of Occupied Camp Cars § 218.73 Warning signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black...

  16. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning signal display. 218.73 Section 218.73..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD OPERATING PRACTICES Protection of Occupied Camp Cars § 218.73 Warning signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black...

  17. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

  18. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  19. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning signal display. 218.73 Section 218.73..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD OPERATING PRACTICES Protection of Occupied Camp Cars § 218.73 Warning signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black...

  20. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  1. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  2. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  3. 49 CFR 218.73 - Warning signal display.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning signal display. 218.73 Section 218.73..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION RAILROAD OPERATING PRACTICES Protection of Occupied Camp Cars § 218.73 Warning signal display. (a) Warning signals, i.e., a white disk with the words “Occupied Camp Car” in black...

  4. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  5. Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has

  6. Disaster warning satellite study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1971-01-01

    The Disaster Warning Satellite System is described. It will provide NOAA with an independent, mass communication system for the purpose of warning the public of impending disaster and issuing bulletins for corrective action to protect lives and property. The system consists of three major segments. The first segment is the network of state or regional offices that communicate with the central ground station; the second segment is the satellite that relays information from ground stations to home receivers; the third segment is composed of the home receivers that receive information from the satellite and provide an audio output to the public. The ground stations required in this system are linked together by two, separate, voice bandwidth communication channels on the Disaster Warning Satellites so that a communications link would be available in the event of disruption of land line service.

  7. Recall of health warnings in smokeless tobacco ads

    PubMed Central

    Truitt, L; Hamilton, W; Johnston, P; Bacani, C; Crawford, S; Hozik, L; Celebucki, C

    2002-01-01

    Design: Subjects examined two distracter ads and one of nine randomly assigned smokeless tobacco ads varying in health warning presence, size (8 to 18 point font), and contrast (low versus high)—including no health warning. They were then interviewed about ad content using recall and recognition questions. Subjects: A convenience sample of 895 English speaking males aged 16–24 years old who were intercepted at seven shopping malls throughout Massachusetts during May 2000. Main outcome measures: Proven aided recall, or recall of a health warning and correct recognition of the warning message among distracters, and false recall. Results: Controlling for covariates such as education, employment/student status, and Hispanic background, proven aided recall increased significantly with font size; doubling size from 10 to 20 point font would increase recall from 63% to 76%. Although not statistically significant, recall was somewhat better for high contrast warnings. Ten per cent of the sample mistakenly recalled the warning where none existed. Conclusions: As demonstrated by substantially greater recall among ads that included health warnings over ads that had none, health warnings retained their value to consumers despite years of exposure (that can produce false recall). Larger health warnings would enhance recall, and the proposed model can be used to estimate potential recall that affects communication, perceived health risk, and behaviour modification. PMID:12034984

  8. Radio disturbance warning issuance system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maeda, R.; Inuki, H.

    1979-01-01

    A radio disturbance warning issuance system was introduced in the Hiraiso Branch of the Radio Research Laboratories in 1972 to reconstruct the current radio disturbance warning service as a social information service. A description of the new ideas which were experimentally systematized by means of an electronic computer is presented.

  9. U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers

    Science.gov Websites

    > No Tsunami Warning, Advisory, Watch, or Threat There is No Tsunami Warning Loading Earthquake Layer Loading Alert Layer Earthquake Layer failed to load Alerts/Threats Layer failed to load Default View Alaska Hawaii Guam/CNMI American Samoa Caribbean North America South America

  10. [Application of exponential smoothing method in prediction and warning of epidemic mumps].

    PubMed

    Shi, Yun-ping; Ma, Jia-qi

    2010-06-01

    To analyze the daily data of epidemic Mumps in a province from 2004 to 2008 and set up exponential smoothing model for the prediction. To predict and warn the epidemic mumps in 2008 through calculating 7-day moving summation and removing the effect of weekends to the data of daily reported mumps cases during 2005-2008 and exponential summation to the data from 2005 to 2007. The performance of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing is good. The result of warning sensitivity was 76.92%, specificity was 83.33%, and timely rate was 80%. It is practicable to use exponential smoothing method to warn against epidemic Mumps.

  11. How soon is too soon? When to cancel a warning after a damaging tsunami

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fryer, G. J.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Weinstein, S.; Richards, K.

    2012-12-01

    Following an earthquake a tsunami warning center (TWC) must determine if a coastal evacuation is necessary and must do so fast enough for the warning to be useful to affected coastlines. Once a damaging tsunami has arrived, the TWC must decide when to cancel its warning, a task often more challenging than the initial hazard assessment. Here we demonstrate the difficulties by investigating the impact of the Tohoku tsunami of 11 March 2011 on the State of Hawaii, which relies on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for tsunami hazard guidance. PTWC issued a Tsunami Watch for Hawaii at 10 March 1956 HST (10 minutes after the earthquake) and upgraded to a Tsunami Warning at 2131 HST. The tsunami arrived in Hawaii just before 0300 HST the next day, reached a maximum runup of over 5 m, and did roughly $50 million in damage throughout the state. PTWC downgraded the Warning to an Advisory at 0730 HST, and canceled the Advisory at 1140 HST. The timing of the downgrade was appropriate—by then it was safe for coastal residents to re-enter the evacuation zone but not to enter the water—but in retrospect PTWC cancelled its Advisory too early. By late morning tide gauges throughout the state had all registered maximum wave heights of 30 cm or less for a couple of hours, so PTWC cancelled. The Center was unaware, however, of ocean behavior at locations without instruments. At Ma'alaea Harbor on the Island of Maui, for example, sea level oscillations exposed the harbor bottom every 20 minutes for several hours after the cancellation. At Waikiki on Oahu, lifeguards rescued 25 swimmers (who had either ignored or were unaware of the cancellation message's caution about hazardous currents) in the hours after the cancellation and performed CPR on one near-drowning victim. Fortunately, there were no deaths. Because of dangerous surges, ocean safety officials closed Hanauma Bay, a popular snorkeling spot on Oahu, for a full day after the tsunami hit. They reassessed the bay the

  12. 14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... takeoff. The warning must continue until— (1) The configuration is changed to allow safe takeoff, or (2... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 23.703 Section 23... Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. For all airplanes with a maximum weight more than 6,000...

  13. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    epidemic threshold would be exceeded in any given week during the forecasting period of 2010-2015 was analyzed using a contingency table. The 4 weeks-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an operational public health response with a 78.7% hit rate and 0.7% false alarm rate. Our findings indicate that SARIMA model is an ideal model for detecting outbreaks as it has high sensitivity and low risk of false alarms. Accurately forecasting future trends will provide valuable time to activate dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. We conclude that this timely dengue early warning system will enable public health services to allocate limited resources more effectively, and public health officials to adjust dengue emergency response plans to their maximum capabilities.

  14. Application of Satellite information (JASON-2) in improvement of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Service in Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hossain, M. A.; Anderson, E. R.; Bhuiyan, M. A.; Hossain, F.; Shah-Newaz, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    Bangladesh is the lowest riparian of the huge system of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM) basins, second to that of Amazan, with 1.75 million sq-km catchment area, only 7% is inside Bangladesh. High inflow from GBM associated with the intense rainfall is the source of flood in Bangladesh. Flood Forecasting and Early Warning (FFEW) is the mandate and responsibility of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) under BWDB has been carrying out this responsibility since 1972 and operational on 7-days a week during monsoon (May to October). FFEW system started with few hours lead time has been upgraded up to to 5-days with reasonable accuracy. At FFWC numerical Hydrodynamic model is used for generating water level (WL) forecast upto 5-days at 54 points on 29 rivers based on real-time observed WL of 83 and rainfall of 56 stations with boundary estimationa on daily basis. Main challenge of this system is the boundary estimation is the limited upstream data of the transboundary rivers, obstacle for increasing lead-time for FFEW. The satellite based upper catchment data may overcome this limitation. Recent NASA-French joint Satellite mission JASON-2 records Water Elevation (WE) and it may be used within 24 hours. Using JASON-2 recorded WE data of 4 and 3 virtual stations on the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers , respectively (upper catchment), a new methodology has been developed for increasing lead time of forecast. Correlation between the JASON-2 recorded WE on the virtual stations at the upper catchment and WL of 2 dominating boundary stations at model boundary on the Ganges and Brahmaputra has been derived for generating WL forecast at those 2 boundary stations, which used as input in model. FFWC has started experimental 8-days lead-time WL forecast at 09 stations (5 in Brahmaputra and 4 in Ganges) using generated boundary data and regularly updating the results in the website. The trend of the forecasted WL using

  15. Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

    PubMed

    Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

    2016-01-01

    Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

  16. From a physical approach to earthquake prediction, towards long and short term warnings ahead of large earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefansson, R.; Bonafede, M.

    2012-04-01

    For 20 years the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) was a test site for multinational earthquake prediction research, partly bridging the gap between laboratory tests samples, and the huge transform zones of the Earth. The approach was to explore the physics of processes leading up to large earthquakes. The book Advances in Earthquake Prediction, Research and Risk Mitigation, by R. Stefansson (2011), published by Springer/PRAXIS, and an article in the August issue of the BSSA by Stefansson, M. Bonafede and G. Gudmundsson (2011) contain a good overview of the findings, and more references, as well as examples of partially successful long and short term warnings based on such an approach. Significant findings are: Earthquakes that occurred hundreds of years ago left scars in the crust, expressed in volumes of heterogeneity that demonstrate the size of their faults. Rheology and stress heterogeneity within these volumes are significantly variable in time and space. Crustal processes in and near such faults may be observed by microearthquake information decades before the sudden onset of a new large earthquake. High pressure fluids of mantle origin may in response to strain, especially near plate boundaries, migrate upward into the brittle/elastic crust to play a significant role in modifying crustal conditions on a long and short term. Preparatory processes of various earthquakes can not be expected to be the same. We learn about an impending earthquake by observing long term preparatory processes at the fault, finding a constitutive relationship that governs the processes, and then extrapolating that relationship into near space and future. This is a deterministic approach in earthquake prediction research. Such extrapolations contain many uncertainties. However the long time pattern of observations of the pre-earthquake fault process will help us to put probability constraints on our extrapolations and our warnings. The approach described is different from the usual

  17. Atmospheric 7Be Concentration Changes as a Possible New Indicator for Early Warning on Indian Monsoon Onset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terzi, L.; Kalinowski, M.; Schoeppner, M.; kusmierczyk-michulec, J.

    2017-12-01

    With 80 radionuclide detector systems worldwide, the International Monitoring System (IMS) offers an unprecedented opportunity to use 7Be as an aerosol tracer for global atmospheric cell dynamics. Meteorological processes such as ENSO onset, ITCZ shift, location and progression of Hadley-Ferrel cell convergence zone (HFCZ) have been reconstructed using long term timeseries of ground based 7Be observations. Cross correlation of 7Be activity concentrations also demonstrated to serve as an early warning indicator for Indian monsoons showing a possible 30-day warning prior to monsoon onset (Terzi and Kalinowski, 2017). Here we present what role phenomena that we can observe with 7Be, namely ITCZ and HFCZ, play in monsoon formation and how the prediction of monsoon onset relates to ENSO prediction. Performance, lead time and reliability of 7Be as monsoon onset indicator are then compared to current meteorological indicators. Near surface 7Be activity concentrations may help address outstanding challenges in monsoon research by integrating a new perspective across disciplines.

  18. 21 CFR 1141.12 - Incorporation by reference of required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... SERVICES (CONTINUED) TOBACCO PRODUCTS CIGARETTE PACKAGE AND ADVERTISING WARNINGS Cigarette Package and Advertising Warnings § 1141.12 Incorporation by reference of required warnings. “Cigarette Required Warnings..., ATTN: Cigarette Warning File Requests, 9200 Corporate Blvd., Rockville, MD 20850, 1-877-CTP-1373, or...

  19. Young Adult Smokers' and Prior-Smokers' Evaluations of Novel Tobacco Warning Images.

    PubMed

    Healey, Benjamin; Hoek, Janet

    2016-01-01

    On-pack warning labels represent a very cost-effective means of communicating with smokers, who potentially see warnings each time they retrieve a cigarette. Warning labels have traditionally depicted graphic health consequences of smoking but emerging evidence suggests the distal consequences shown may prove less effective in prompting cessation among young adults. We used a novel micro-survey approach to compare novel and traditional warnings, and provide an empirical foundation for a larger study. We recruited 4649 male and 2993 female participants aged 18-34 from Google Consumer Survey's Australian panel of Android mobile phone users. A screening question resulted in a sample comprising 3183 daily, non-daily, and former smokers. Twenty images corresponding to social and health risks, tobacco industry denormalization, and secondhand smoke (SHS) were tested in paired comparisons where respondents selected the image they thought most likely to prompt cessation. Irrespective of smoking status, respondents rated messages featuring harm to children as most effective and industry denormalization messages and adult SHS warnings as least effective. Within smoker groups, daily smokers rated social concerns more highly; non-daily smokers were more responsive to SHS messages, and former smokers saw intimacy and cosmetic effects warnings as more effective than other groups. While preliminary, the findings support emerging evidence that more diverse warning images may be required to promote cessation among all smoker sub-groups. Warnings depicting harm to vulnerable others appear to hold high potential and merit further investigation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. 21 CFR 1141.12 - Incorporation by reference of required warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Incorporation by reference of required warnings... SERVICES (CONTINUED) TOBACCO PRODUCTS CIGARETTE PACKAGE AND ADVERTISING WARNINGS Cigarette Package and Advertising Warnings § 1141.12 Incorporation by reference of required warnings. “Cigarette Required Warnings...

  1. Don't get the message: the effect of a warning text before visiting a proanorexia website.

    PubMed

    Martijn, Carolien; Smeets, Elke; Jansen, Anita; Hoeymans, Nancy; Schoemaker, Casper

    2009-03-01

    This study examined the effect of the placement of a warning text before visiting proanorexia websites on actual access of these websites. A separate webpage with a warning text aiming at first-time visitors was placed before each proanorexia website hosted by a Dutch Internet provider. During the research period of 1 year, the numbers of hits at the warning webpage were registered together with the numbers of hits at the underlying proanorexia website. Of the total number of hits registered at the warning webpage, about two-third of the visitors were registered at the underlying proanorexia website. This indicates that about one-third of the visitors did not continue their visit to a proanorexia website after being exposed to the warning text. Placement of a warning text before proanorexia websites appears a promising strategy in holding back potential visitors.

  2. [Reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening psychological, behavioral and developmental problems of children].

    PubMed

    Huang, X N; Zhang, Y; Feng, W W; Wang, H S; Cao, B; Zhang, B; Yang, Y F; Wang, H M; Zheng, Y; Jin, X M; Jia, M X; Zou, X B; Zhao, C X; Robert, J; Jing, Jin

    2017-06-02

    Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of warning signs checklist developed by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHFPC), so as to determine the screening effectiveness of warning signs on developmental problems of early childhood. Method: Stratified random sampling method was used to assess the reliability and validity of checklist of warning sign and 2 110 children 0 to 6 years of age(1 513 low-risk subjects and 597 high-risk subjects) were recruited from 11 provinces of China. The reliability evaluation for the warning signs included the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability. With the use of Age and Stage Questionnaire (ASQ) and Gesell Development Diagnosis Scale (GESELL) as the criterion scales, criterion validity was assessed by determining the correlation and consistency between the screening results of warning signs and the criterion scales. Result: In terms of the warning signs, the screening positive rates at different ages ranged from 10.8%(21/141) to 26.2%(51/137). The median (interquartile) testing time for each subject was 1(0.6) minute. Both the test-retest reliability and interrater reliability of warning signs reached 0.7 or above, indicating that the stability was good. In terms of validity assessment, there was remarkable consistency between ASQ and warning signs, with the Kappa value of 0.63. With the use of GESELL as criterion, it was determined that the sensitivity of warning signs in children with suspected developmental delay was 82.2%, and the specificity was 77.7%. The overall Youden index was 0.6. Conclusion: The reliability and validity of warning signs checklist for screening early childhood developmental problems have met the basic requirements of psychological screening scales, with the characteristics of short testing time and easy operation. Thus, this warning signs checklist can be used for screening psychological and behavioral problems of early childhood

  3. Real-time Extremely Heavy Rainfall Forecast and Warning over Rajasthan During the Monsoon Season (2016)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, Kuldeep; Pradhan, D.

    2018-01-01

    Two events of extremely heavy rainfall occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016. Due to these events, flooding occurred over east Rajasthan and affected the normal life of people. A low-pressure area lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh on 7 August 2016 moved north-westward and lay near east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh on 8 and 9 August 2016. Under the influence of this low-pressure system, Chittorgarh district and adjoining areas of Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall of 23 cm till 0300 UTC of 8 August 2016 and 34 cm on 0300 UTC of 9 August 2016. A deep depression lying over extreme south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northeast Madhya Pradesh on 19 August 2016 moved westward and gradually weakened into a depression on 20 August 2016. It further weakened into a low-pressure area and lay over east Rajasthan on 21 and 22 August 2016. Under the influence of this deep depression, Jhalawar received 31 cm and Baran received 25 cm on 19 August. On 20 August 2016, extremely heavy rainfall (EHR) occurred over Banswara (23.5 cm), Pratapgarh (23.2 cm) and Chittorgarh (22.7 cm) districts. In this paper, the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global forecast system (GFS) model for real-time forecast and warning of heavy to very heavy/EHR that occurred over Rajasthan during 7-9 August 2016 and 19-21 August 2016 has been examined. The NCEP GFS forecast rainfall (Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3) was compared with the corresponding observed gridded rainfall. Based on the predictions given by the NCEP GFS model for heavy rainfall and with their application in real-time rainfall forecast and warnings issued by the Regional Weather Forecasting Center in New Delhi, it is concluded that the model has predicted the wind pattern and EHR event associated with the low-pressure system very accurately on day 1 and day 2 forecasts and with small errors in intensity and space for day 3.

  4. Indications and Warning Methodology for Strategic Intelligence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-12-01

    WARNING METHODOLOGY FOR STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE by Susann Kimmelman December 2017 Thesis Co-Advisors: Robert Simeral James Wirtz THIS...Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE INDICATIONS AND WARNING METHODOLOGY FOR STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Susann...enterprise. The research found that, for homeland security, implementing a human-centric indications and warning methodology that focuses on the actor as

  5. Embedded Alcohol Messages in Television Series: The Interactive Effect of Warnings and Audience Connectedness on Viewers' Alcohol Beliefs*

    PubMed Central

    RUSSELL, DALE W.; RUSSELL, CRISTEL ANTONIA

    2014-01-01

    Objective This research investigates whether warning viewers about the presence of embedded messages in the content of a television episode affects viewers' drinking beliefs and whether audi ence connectedness moderates the warning's impact. Method Two hun dred fifty college students participated in a laboratory experiment approximating a real-life television viewing experience. They viewed an actual television series episode containing embedded alcohol messages, and their subsequent beliefs about alcohol consequences were measured. Experimental conditions differed based on a 2 (Connectedness Level: low vs high) × 2 (Timing of the Warning: before or after the episode) × 2 (Emphasis of Warning: advertising vs health message) design. Connectedness was measured, and the timing and emphasis of the warnings were manipulated. The design also included a control condition where there was no warning. Results The findings indicate that warning view ers about embedded messages in the content of a program can yield sig nificant differences in viewers' beliefs about alcohol. However, the warning's impact differs depending on the viewers' level of connectedness to the program. In particular, in comparison with the no-warning control condition, the advertising prewarning produced lower positive beliefs about alcohol and its consequences but only for the low-connected viewers. Highly connected viewers were not affected by a warning emphasizing advertising messages embedded in the program, but a warning emphasizing health produced significantly higher negative be liefs about drinking than in the control condition. Conclusions The presence of many positive portrayals of drinking and alcohol product placements in television series has led many to suggest ways to counter their influence. However, advocates of warnings should be conscious of their differential impact on high- and low-connected viewers. PMID:18432390

  6. Tsunami Warning Services for the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic Coasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, P. M.; Knight, W.

    2008-12-01

    In January 2005, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a tsunami warning program for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Within a year, this program extended further to the Atlantic coast of Canada and the Caribbean Sea. Warning services are provided to U.S. and Canadian coasts (including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) by the NOAA/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) while the NOAA/Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) provides services for non-U.S. entities in the Caribbean Basin. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is also an active partner in the Caribbean Basin warning system. While the nature of the tsunami threat in the Atlantic Basin is different than in the Pacific, the warning system philosophy is similar. That is, initial messages are based strictly on seismic data so that information is provided to those at greatest risk as fast as possible while supplementary messages are refined with sea level observations and forecasts when possible. The Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) acquire regional seismic data through many agencies, such as the United States Geological Survey, Earthquakes Canada, regional seismic networks, and the PRSN. Seismic data quantity and quality are generally sufficient throughout most of the Atlantic area-of-responsibility to issue initial information within five minutes of origin time. Sea level data are mainly provided by the NOAA/National Ocean Service. Coastal tide gage coverage is generally denser along the Atlantic coast than in the Pacific. Seven deep ocean pressure sensors (DARTs), operated by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Data Buoy Center, are located in the Atlantic Basin (5 in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 in the Caribbean, and 1 in the Gulf of Mexico). The DARTs provide TWCs with the means to verify tsunami generation in the Atlantic and provide critical data with which to calibrate forecast models. Tsunami warning response criteria in the Atlantic Basin

  7. 14 CFR 23.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution, or...— (a) Red, for warning lights (lights indicating a hazard which may require immediate corrective action...

  8. 14 CFR 23.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution, or...— (a) Red, for warning lights (lights indicating a hazard which may require immediate corrective action...

  9. 14 CFR 23.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution, or...— (a) Red, for warning lights (lights indicating a hazard which may require immediate corrective action...

  10. 14 CFR 23.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution, or...— (a) Red, for warning lights (lights indicating a hazard which may require immediate corrective action...

  11. 14 CFR 23.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 23... Equipment Instruments: Installation § 23.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution, or...— (a) Red, for warning lights (lights indicating a hazard which may require immediate corrective action...

  12. Effectiveness of safety belt warning and interlock systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1973-04-01

    Rental cars in Fayetteville, N.C., were equipped with four seat belt and warning systems: (Phase I) detachable shoulder and lap belt, no warning system; (Phase II) detachable shoulder and lap belt, warning system (January 1, 1972 standard); (Phase II...

  13. Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

  14. Comparison of Expected Crash and Injury Reduction from Production Forward Collision and Lane Departure Warning Systems.

    PubMed

    Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) now tests for forward collision warning (FCW) and lane departure warning (LDW). The design of these warnings differs greatly between vehicles and can result in different real-world field performance in preventing or mitigating the effects of collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the expected number of crashes and injured drivers that could be prevented if all vehicles in the fleet were equipped with the FCW and LDW systems tested under the U.S. NCAP. To predict the potential crashes and serious injury that could be prevented, our approach was to computationally model the U.S. crash population. The models simulated all rear-end and single-vehicle road departure collisions that occurred in a nationally representative crash database (NASS-CDS). A sample of 478 single-vehicle crashes from NASS-CDS 2012 was the basis for 24,822 simulations for LDW. A sample of 1,042 rear-end collisions from NASS-CDS years 1997-2013 was the basis for 7,616 simulations for FCW. For each crash, 2 simulations were performed: (1) without the system present and (2) with the system present. Models of each production safety system were based on 54 model year 2010-2014 vehicles that were evaluated under the NCAP confirmation procedure for LDW and/or FCW. NCAP performed 40 LDW and 45 FCW tests of these vehicles. The design of the FCW systems had a dramatic impact on their potential to prevent crashes and injuries. Between 0 and 67% of crashes and 2 and 69% of moderately to fatally injured drivers in rear-end impacts could have been prevented if all vehicles were equipped with the FCW systems. Earlier warning times resulted in increased benefits. The largest effect on benefits, however, was the lower operating speed threshold of the systems. Systems that only operated at speeds above 20 mph were less than half as effective as those that operated above 5 mph with similar warning times. The production LDW systems could have prevented

  15. Flash floods warning technique based on wireless communication networks data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, Noam; Alpert, Pinhas; Messer, Hagit

    2010-05-01

    Flash floods can occur throughout or subsequent to rainfall events, particularly in cases where the precipitation is of high-intensity. Unfortunately, each year these floods cause severe property damage and heavy casualties. At present, there are no sufficient real time flash flood warning facilities found to cope with this phenomenon. Here we show the tremendous potential of flash floods advanced warning based on precipitation measurements of commercial microwave links. As was recently shown, wireless communication networks supply high resolution precipitation measurements at ground level while often being situated in flood prone areas, covering large parts of these hazardous regions. We present the flash flood warning potential of the wireless communication system for two different cases when floods occurred at the Judean desert and at the northern Negev in Israel. In both cases, an advanced warning regarding the hazard could have been announced based on this system. • This research was supported by THE ISRAEL SCIENCE FOUNDATION (grant No. 173/08). This work was also supported by a grant from the Yeshaya Horowitz Association, Jerusalem. Additional support was given by the PROCEMA-BMBF project and by the GLOWA-JR BMBF project.

  16. Believability of Cigar Warning Labels Among Adolescents.

    PubMed

    Kowitt, Sarah D; Jarman, Kristen; Ranney, Leah M; Goldstein, Adam O

    2017-03-01

    Despite high rates of cigar use among youth, little information exists about how cigar warnings are received by youth. We examined believability of different cigar warning messages with different sources among adolescents in a national phone survey. Adolescents (aged 13-17 years) in the US (N = 1,125; total response rate, 66%) were randomized to receive one of three health messages ("cigar smoking can cause cancers of the mouth and throat, even if you do not inhale," "cigar smoking can cause lung cancer and heart disease," and "cigars are not a safe alternative to cigarettes") and one of four warning sources (Food and Drug Administration, Surgeon General, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and no source). Believability was assessed with "how believable is this warning," and responses were dichotomized for "not at all or somewhat" versus "very." Weighted logistic regression results indicated that most youth found the cigar warnings very believable (60.5%). Messages about mouth and throat cancer (regardless of inhalation) and the safety of cigars in comparison to cigarettes were rated as significantly less believable than messages about lung cancer and heart disease related to cigars. There were no significant differences by source or other demographics. However, youth susceptible to using cigarettes were less likely to report the cigar warnings to be very believable. The messages of cigar warning labels are not viewed as equally believable among adolescents. Future studies should examine how youth process messages about health effects of cigars and the impact of different cigar warnings on youth experimentation with and use of cigars. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

    2015-12-01

    The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

  18. 14 CFR 29.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 29...: Installation § 29.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution or advisory lights are installed in the cockpit they must, unless otherwise approved by the Administrator, be— (a) Red, for warning...

  19. 14 CFR 29.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 29...: Installation § 29.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution or advisory lights are installed in the cockpit they must, unless otherwise approved by the Administrator, be— (a) Red, for warning...

  20. 14 CFR 27.1322 - Warning, caution, and advisory lights.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Warning, caution, and advisory lights. 27... § 27.1322 Warning, caution, and advisory lights. If warning, caution or advisory lights are installed in the cockpit, they must, unless otherwise approved by the Administrator, be— (a) Red, for warning...