Sample records for warning system score

  1. The impact of Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence: An integrative literature review and synthesis.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Jørghild Karlotte; Skår, Randi; Tveit, Bodil

    2018-04-01

    To describe, interpret and synthesise the current research findings on the impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients in general hospital wards. As patient safety initiatives designed to ensure the early identification and management of deteriorating patients, the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems have broad appeal. However, it is still unclear how these systems impact nurses' competence when these systems are used in general hospital wards. CINAHL, PubMed, Cochrane, EMBASE and Ovid MEDLINE databases were systematically searched for relevant articles. Articles were appraised, a thematic analysis was conducted, and similar and divergent perspectives on emergent themes and subthemes were extracted by a team of researchers. Thirty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. The analysis of findings showed how the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems impacted three competence areas: (i) Nurses' competence in assessing and caring for patients related to the subthemes: (a) sensing clinical deterioration and (b) the development of skills and knowledge. (ii). Nurses' competence in referring patients, related to the subthemes: (a) deciding whether to summon help and (b) the language and communication lines in the referral process. (ii) Nurses' coping and mastery experiences. The impact of the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems on nurses' competence in identifying and managing deteriorating patients is beneficial but also somewhat contradictory. A greater understanding of nurses' development of competence when using the Early Warning Score and Rapid Response Systems will facilitate the design of implementation strategies and the use of these systems to improve practice. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Short National Early Warning Score - Developing a Modified Early Warning Score.

    PubMed

    Luís, Leandro; Nunes, Carla

    2017-12-11

    Early Warning Score (EWS) systems have been developed for detecting hospital patients clinical deterioration. Many studies show that a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) performs well in discriminating survival from death in acute medical and surgical hospital wards. NEWS is validated for Portugal and is available for use. A simpler EWS system may help to reduce the risk of error, as well as increase clinician compliance with the tool. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether a simplified NEWS model will improve use and data collection. We evaluated the ability of single and aggregated parameters from the NEWS model to detect patients' clinical deterioration in the 24h prior to an outcome. There were 2 possible outcomes: Survival vs Unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death. We used binary logistic regression models and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (ROC) to evaluate the parameters' performance in discriminating among the outcomes for a sample of patients from 6 Portuguese hospital wards. NEWS presented an excellent discriminating capability (Area under the Curve of ROC (AUCROC)=0.944). Temperature and systolic blood pressure (SBP) parameters did not contribute significantly to the model. We developed two different models, one without temperature, and the other by removing temperature and SBP (M2). Both models had an excellent discriminating capability (AUCROC: 0.965; 0.903, respectively) and a good predictive power in the optimum threshold of the ROC curve. The 3 models revealed similar discriminant capabilities. Although the use of SBP is not clearly evident in the identification of clinical deterioration, it is recognized as an important vital sign. We recommend the use of the first new model, as its simplicity may help to improve adherence and use by health care workers. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Critical Care Nurses Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of the effects of implementing an electronic early warning score system: protocol for a stepped wedge study.

    PubMed

    Bonnici, Timothy; Gerry, Stephen; Wong, David; Knight, Julia; Watkinson, Peter

    2016-02-09

    An Early Warning Score is a clinical risk score based upon vital signs intended to aid recognition of patients in need of urgent medical attention. The use of an escalation of care policy based upon an Early Warning Score is mandated as the standard of practice in British hospitals. Electronic systems for recording vital sign observations and Early Warning Score calculation offer theoretical benefits over paper-based systems. However, the evidence for their clinical benefit is limited. Previous studies have shown inconsistent results. The majority have employed a "before and after" study design, which may be strongly confounded by simultaneously occurring events. This study aims to examine how the implementation of an electronic early warning score system, System for Notification and Documentation (SEND), affects the recognition of clinical deterioration occurring in hospitalised adult patients. This study is a non-randomised stepped wedge evaluation carried out across the four hospitals of the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, comparing charting on paper and charting using SEND. We assume that more frequent monitoring of acutely ill patients is associated with better recognition of patient deterioration. The primary outcome measure is the time between a patient's first observations set with an Early Warning Score above the alerting threshold and their subsequent set of observations. Secondary outcome measures are in-hospital mortality, cardiac arrest and Intensive Care admission rates, hospital length of stay and system usability measured using the System Usability Scale. We will also measure Intensive Care length of stay, Intensive Care mortality, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II acute physiology score on admission, to examine whether the introduction of SEND has any effect on Intensive Care-related outcomes. The development of this protocol has been informed by guidance from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ

  4. [Results of applying a paediatric early warning score system as a healthcare quality improvement plan].

    PubMed

    Rivero-Martín, M J; Prieto-Martínez, S; García-Solano, M; Montilla-Pérez, M; Tena-Martín, E; Ballesteros-García, M M

    2016-06-01

    The aims of this study were to introduce a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) into our daily clinical practice, as well as to evaluate its ability to detect clinical deterioration in children admitted, and to train nursing staff to communicate the information and response effectively. An analysis was performed on the implementation of PEWS in the electronic health records of children (0-15 years) in our paediatric ward from February 2014 to September 2014. The maximum score was 6. Nursing staff reviewed scores >2, and if >3 medical and nursing staff reviewed it. Monitoring indicators: % of admissions with scoring; % of complete data capture; % of scores >3; % of scores >3 reviewed by medical staff, % of changes in treatment due to the warning system, and number of patients who needed Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission, or died without an increased warning score. The data were collected from all patients (931) admitted. The scale was measured 7,917 times, with 78.8% of them with complete data capture. Very few (1.9%) showed scores >3, and 14% of them with changes in clinical management (intensifying treatment or new diagnostic tests). One patient (scored 2) required PICU admission. There were no deaths. Parents or nursing staff concern was registered in 80% of cases. PEWS are useful to provide a standardised assessment of clinical status in the inpatient setting, using a unique scale and implementing data capture. Because of the lack of severe complications requiring PICU admission and deaths, we will have to use other data to evaluate these scales. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  5. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

    PubMed

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-07-10

    to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com

  6. Development and initial validation of the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System score

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Adverse outcomes following clinical deterioration in children admitted to hospital wards is frequently preventable. Identification of children for referral to critical care experts remains problematic. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple bedside score to quantify severity of illness in hospitalized children. Methods A case-control design was used to evaluate 11 candidate items and identify a pragmatic score for routine bedside use. Case-patients were urgently admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Control-patients had no 'code blue', ICU admission or care restrictions. Validation was performed using two prospectively collected datasets. Results Data from 60 case and 120 control-patients was obtained. Four out of eleven candidate-items were removed. The seven-item Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System (PEWS) score ranges from 0–26. The mean maximum scores were 10.1 in case-patients and 3.4 in control-patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.91, compared with 0.84 for the retrospective nurse-rating of patient risk for near or actual cardiopulmonary arrest. At a score of 8 the sensitivity and specificity were 82% and 93%, respectively. The score increased over 24 hours preceding urgent paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission (P < 0.0001). In 436 urgent consultations, the Bedside PEWS score was higher in patients admitted to the ICU than patients who were not admitted (P < 0.0001). Conclusions We developed and performed the initial validation of the Bedside PEWS score. This 7-item score can quantify severity of illness in hospitalized children and identify critically ill children with at least one hours notice. Prospective validation in other populations is required before clinical application. PMID:19678924

  7. Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation

    PubMed Central

    Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E.D.

    2017-01-01

    Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined “norm.” Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team. PMID:27832032

  8. Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation.

    PubMed

    Sefton, Gerri; Lane, Steven; Killen, Roger; Black, Stuart; Lyon, Max; Ampah, Pearl; Sproule, Cathryn; Loren-Gosling, Dominic; Richards, Caitlin; Spinty, Jean; Holloway, Colette; Davies, Coral; Wilson, April; Chean, Chung Shen; Carter, Bernie; Carrol, E D

    2017-05-01

    Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined "norm." Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team.

  9. The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

    2018-02-02

    This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

  10. Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database.

    PubMed

    Carle, C; Alexander, P; Columb, M; Johal, J

    2013-04-01

    We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the FI O2 /Pa O2 relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non-obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992-0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923-0.991) for the clinical score. Pre-existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922-0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884-0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003-2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957-0.989) for the non-obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to

  11. Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

    PubMed

    Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

    2018-05-01

    To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Can binary early warning scores perform as well as standard early warning scores for discriminating a patient's risk of cardiac arrest, death or unanticipated intensive care unit admission?

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-08-01

    Although the weightings to be summed in an early warning score (EWS) calculation are small, calculation and other errors occur frequently, potentially impacting on hospital efficiency and patient care. Use of a simpler EWS has the potential to reduce errors. We truncated 36 published 'standard' EWSs so that, for each component, only two scores were possible: 0 when the standard EWS scored 0 and 1 when the standard EWS scored greater than 0. Using 1564,153 vital signs observation sets from 68,576 patient care episodes, we compared the discrimination (measured using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve--AUROC) of each standard EWS and its truncated 'binary' equivalent. The binary EWSs had lower AUROCs than the standard EWSs in most cases, although for some the difference was not significant. One system, the binary form of the National Early Warning System (NEWS), had significantly better discrimination than all standard EWSs, except for NEWS. Overall, Binary NEWS at a trigger value of 3 would detect as many adverse outcomes as are detected by NEWS using a trigger of 5, but would require a 15% higher triggering rate. The performance of Binary NEWS is only exceeded by that of standard NEWS. It may be that Binary NEWS, as a simplified system, can be used with fewer errors. However, its introduction could lead to significant increases in workload for ward and rapid response team staff. The balance between fewer errors and a potentially greater workload needs further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Clicker Score Trajectories and Concept Inventory Scores as Predictors for Early Warning Systems for Large STEM Classes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Un Jung; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Ha, Minsu; Finch, Stephen J.; Nehm, Ross H.

    2015-12-01

    Increasing the retention of STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) majors has recently emerged as a national priority in undergraduate education. Since poor performance in large introductory science and math courses is one significant factor in STEM dropout, early detection of struggling students is needed. Technology-supported "early warning systems" (EWSs) are being developed to meet these needs. Our study explores the utility of two commonly collected data sources—pre-course concept inventory scores and longitudinal clicker scores—for use in EWS, specifically, in determining the time points at which robust predictions of student success can first be established. The pre-course diagnostic assessments, administered to 287 students, included two concept inventories and one attitude assessment. Clicker question scores were also obtained for each of the 37 class sessions. Additionally, student characteristics (sex, ethnicity, and English facility) were gathered in a survey. Our analyses revealed that all variables were predictive of final grades. The correlation of the first 3 weeks of clicker scores with final grades was 0.53, suggesting that this set of variables could be used in an EWS starting at the third week. We also used group-based trajectory models to assess whether trajectory patterns were homogeneous in the class. The trajectory analysis identified three distinct clicker performance patterns that were also significant predictors of final grade. Trajectory analyses of clicker scores, student characteristics, and pre-course diagnostic assessment appear to be valuable data sources for EWS, although further studies in a diversity of instructional contexts are warranted.

  14. Modifications of the National Early Warning Score for patients with chronic respiratory disease.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, N E; Rasmussen, L S; Petersen, J A; Gerds, T A; Østergaard, D; Lippert, A

    2018-02-01

    The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) uses physiological variables to detect deterioration in hospitalized patients. However, patients with chronic respiratory disease may have abnormal variables not requiring interventions. We studied how the Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System (CROS), the Chronic Respiratory Early Warning Score (CREWS) and the Salford NEWS (S-NEWS) affected NEWS total scores and NEWS performance. In an observational study, we included patients with chronic respiratory disease. The frequency of use of CROS and the NEWS total score changes caused by CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS were described. NEWS, CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS were compared using 48-h mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 48 h as outcomes. We studied 11,266 patients during 25,978 admissions; the use of CROS lowered NEWS total scores in 40% of included patients. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS had lower sensitivities than NEWS for 48-h mortality and ICU admission. Specificities and PPV were higher. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS downgraded, respectively, 51.5%, 44.9% and 32.8% of the NEWS total scores from the 'mandatory doctor presence' and 'immediate doctor presence and specialist consultation' total score intervals to lower intervals. Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System was frequently used in patients with chronic respiratory disease. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS reduced sensitivity for 48-h mortality and ICU admission. Using the methodology prevalent in the NEWS literature, we cannot conclude on the safety of these systems. Future prospective studies should investigate the balance between detection rate and alarm fatigue of different systems, or use controlled designs and patient-centred outcomes. © 2017 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    PubMed

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and

  16. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    PubMed

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  17. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  18. Emergency Warning Systems. Part 2. Warning Systems - Evaluation Guidelines.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-01

    ELEMENT. PROJECT. TASK AREA A WORK UNIT NUMBERS PRC Voorhees Work Unit 2234G 1500 Planning Research Drive McLean, Virginia 22102 ___ 11. CONTROLLING ...different from Controlling Office) IS. SECURITY CLASS. (of this report) Unclassified 15a. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION...systems that control these warning systems are discussed. Test results of several warning systems are included along with a discussion of sound

  19. Exploring Vital Sign Data Quality in Electronic Health Records with Focus on Emergency Care Warning Scores.

    PubMed

    Skyttberg, Niclas; Chen, Rong; Blomqvist, Hans; Koch, Sabine

    2017-08-30

    Computerized clinical decision support and automation of warnings have been advocated to assist clinicians in detecting patients at risk of physiological instability. To provide reliable support such systems are dependent on high-quality vital sign data. Data quality depends on how, when and why the data is captured and/or documented. This study aims to describe the effects on data quality of vital signs by three different types of documentation practices in five Swedish emergency hospitals, and to assess data fitness for calculating warning and triage scores. The study also provides reference data on triage vital signs in Swedish emergency care. We extracted a dataset including vital signs, demographic and administrative data from emergency care visits (n=335027) at five Swedish emergency hospitals during 2013 using either completely paper-based, completely electronic or mixed documentation practices. Descriptive statistics were used to assess fitness for use in emergency care decision support systems aiming to calculate warning and triage scores, and data quality was described in three categories: currency, completeness and correctness. To estimate correctness, two further categories - plausibility and concordance - were used. The study showed an acceptable correctness of the registered vital signs irrespectively of the type of documentation practice. Completeness was high in sites where registrations were routinely entered into the Electronic Health Record (EHR). The currency was only acceptable in sites with a completely electronic documentation practice. Although vital signs that were recorded in completely electronic documentation practices showed plausible results regarding correctness, completeness and currency, the study concludes that vital signs documented in Swedish emergency care EHRs cannot generally be considered fit for use for calculation of triage and warning scores. Low completeness and currency were found if the documentation was not completely

  20. A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Ian

    2016-03-01

    There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

  1. Airlock caution and warning system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayfield, W. J.; Cork, L. Z.; Malchow, R. G.; Hornback, G. L.

    1972-01-01

    Caution and warning system, used to monitor performance and warn of hazards or out-of-limit conditions on space vehicles, may have application to aircraft and railway transit systems. System consists of caution and warning subsystem and emergency subsystem.

  2. An Early Warning Scoring System to Identify Septic Patients in the Prehospital Setting: The PRESEP Score.

    PubMed

    Bayer, Ole; Schwarzkopf, Daniel; Stumme, Christoph; Stacke, Angelika; Hartog, Christiane S; Hohenstein, Christian; Kabisch, Björn; Reichel, Jens; Reinhart, Konrad; Winning, Johannes

    2015-07-01

    The objective was to develop and evaluate an early sepsis detection score for the prehospital setting. A retrospective analysis of consecutive patients who were admitted by emergency medical services (EMS) to the emergency department of the Jena University Hospital was performed. Because potential predictors for sepsis should be based on consensus criteria, the following parameters were extracted from the EMS protocol for further analysis: temperature, heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (RR), oxygen saturation (SaO2 ), Glasgow Coma Scale score, blood glucose, and systolic blood pressure (sBP). Potential predictors were stratified based on inspection of Loess graphs. Backward model selection was performed to select risk factors for the final model. The Prehospital Early Sepsis Detection (PRESEP) score was calculated as the sum of simplified regression weights. Its predictive validity was compared to the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), the Robson screening tool, and the BAS 90-30-90. A total of 375 patients were included in the derivation sample; 93 (24.8%) of these had sepsis, including 60 patients with severe sepsis and 12 patients with septic shock. Backward model selection identified temperature, HR, RR, SaO2 , and sBP for inclusion in the PRESEP score. Simplified weights were as follows: temperature > 38°C = 4, temperature < 36°C = 1, HR > 90 beats/min = 2, RR > 22 breaths/min = 1, SaO2 < 92% = 2, and sBP < 90 mm Hg = 2. The cutoff value for a possible existing septic disease based on maximum Youden's index was ≥4 (sensitivity 0.85, specificity 0.86, positive predictive value [PPV] 0.66, and negative predictive value [NPV] 0.95). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the PRESEP score was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.89 to 0.96) and was larger than the AUC of the MEWS (0.93 vs. 0.77, p < 0.001). The PRESEP score surpassed MEWS and BAS 90-60-90 for sensitivity (0.74 and 0.62, respectively), specificity (0.75 and 0

  3. Implementing Obstetric Early Warning Systems.

    PubMed

    Friedman, Alexander M; Campbell, Mary L; Kline, Carolyn R; Wiesner, Suzanne; D'Alton, Mary E; Shields, Laurence E

    2018-04-01

    Severe maternal morbidity and mortality are often preventable and obstetric early warning systems that alert care providers of potential impending critical illness may improve maternal safety. While literature on outcomes and test characteristics of maternal early warning systems is evolving, there is limited guidance on implementation. Given current interest in early warning systems and their potential role in care, the 2017 Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) Annual Meeting dedicated a session to exploring early warning implementation across a wide range of hospital settings. This manuscript reports on key points from this session. While implementation experiences varied based on factors specific to individual sites, common themes relevant to all hospitals presenting were identified. Successful implementation of early warnings systems requires administrative and leadership support, dedication of resources, improved coordination between nurses, providers, and ancillary staff, optimization of information technology, effective education, evaluation of and change in hospital culture and practices, and support in provider decision-making. Evolving data on outcomes on early warning systems suggest that maternal risk may be reduced. To effectively reduce maternal, risk early warning systems that capture deterioration from a broad range of conditions may be required in addition to bundles tailored to specific conditions such as hemorrhage, thromboembolism, and hypertension.

  4. Multicentre validation of the bedside paediatric early warning system score: a severity of illness score to detect evolving critical illness in hospitalised children

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The timely provision of critical care to hospitalised patients at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest is contingent upon identification and referral by frontline providers. Current approaches require improvement. In a single-centre study, we developed the Bedside Paediatric Early Warning System (Bedside PEWS) score to identify patients at risk. The objective of this study was to validate the Bedside PEWS score in a large patient population at multiple hospitals. Methods We performed an international, multicentre, case-control study of children admitted to hospital inpatient units with no limitations on care. Case patients had experienced a clinical deterioration event involving either an immediate call to a resuscitation team or urgent admission to a paediatric intensive care unit. Control patients had no events. The scores ranged from 0 to 26 and were assessed in the 24 hours prior to the clinical deterioration event. Score performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUCROC) curve by comparison with the retrospective rating of nurses and the temporal progression of scores in case patients. Results A total of 2,074 patients were evaluated at 4 participating hospitals. The median (interquartile range) maximum Bedside PEWS scores for the 12 hours ending 1 hour before the clinical deterioration event were 8 (5 to 12) in case patients and 2 (1 to 4) in control patients (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89). In case patients, mean scores were 5.3 at 20 to 24 hours and 8.4 at 0 to 4 hours before the event (P < 0.0001). The AUCROC curve (95% CI) of the retrospective nurse ratings was 0.83 (0.81 to 0.86). This was significantly lower than that of the Bedside PEWS score (P < 0.0001). Conclusions The Bedside PEWS score identified children at risk for cardiopulmonary arrest. Scores were elevated and continued to increase in the 24 hours before the clinical deterioration event

  5. Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

    PubMed

    Swinden, Donna

    2014-08-28

    USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

  6. National early warning score (NEWS) - evaluation in surgery.

    PubMed

    Neary, Peter M; Regan, Mark; Joyce, Myles J; McAnena, Oliver J; Callanan, Ian

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate staff opinion on the impact of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) system on surgical wards. In 2012, the NEWS system was introduced to Irish hospitals on a phased basis as part of a national clinical programme in acute care. A modified established questionnaire was given to surgical nursing staff, surgical registrars, surgical senior house officers and surgical interns for completion six months following the introduction of the NEWS system into an Irish university hospital. Amongst the registrars, 89 per cent were unsure if the NEWS system would improve patient care. Less than half of staff felt consultants and surgical registrars supported the NEWS system. Staff felt the NEWS did not correlate well clinically with patients within the first 24 hours (Day zero) post-operatively. Furthermore, 78-85 per cent of nurses and registrars felt a rapid response team should be part of the escalation protocol. Senior medical staff were not convinced that the NEWS system may improve patient care. Appropriate audit proving a beneficial impact of the NEWS system on patient outcome may be essential in gaining support from senior doctors. Deficiencies with the system were also observed including the absence of a rapid response team as part of the escalation protocol and a lack of concordance of the NEWS in patients Day zero post-operatively. These issues should be addressed moving forward. Appropriate audit of the impact of the NEWS system on patient outcome may be pertinent to obtain the support from senior doctors. Deficiencies with the system were also observed including the absence of a rapid response team as part of the escalation protocol and a lack of concordance of the NEWS in patients Day zero post-operatively. These issues should be addressed moving forward.

  7. Early warning system for aftershocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Fischer, F.G.; Jensen, E.G.; VanSchaack, J.

    1994-01-01

    A prototype early warning system to provide San Francisco and Oakland, California a few tens-of-seconds warning of incoming strong ground shaking from already-occurred M ≧ 3.7 aftershocks of the magnitude 7.1 17 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was operational on 28 October 1989. The prototype system consisted of four components: ground motion sensors in the epicentral area, a central receiver, a radio repeater, and radio receivers. One of the radio receivers was deployed at the California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS) headquarters at the damaged Cypress Street section of the I-880 freeway in Oakland, California on 28 October 1989 and provided about 20 sec of warning before shaking from the M 4.5 Loma Prieta aftershock that occurred on 2 November 1989 at 0550 UTC. In its first 6 months of operation, the system generated triggers for all 12 M > 3.7 aftershocks for which trigger documentation is preserved, did not trigger on any M ≦ 3.6 aftershocks, and produced one false trigger as a result of a now-corrected single point of failure design flaw. Because the prototype system demonstrated that potentially useful warnings of strong shaking from aftershocks are feasible, the USGS has completed a portable early warning system for aftershocks that can be deployed anywhere.

  8. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

  9. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

  10. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it...

  11. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

  12. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

  13. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234....225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the warning system, but in no event shall it provide less than 20...

  14. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  15. Modified obstetric early warning scoring systems (MOEWS): validating the diagnostic performance for severe sepsis in women with chorioamnionitis.

    PubMed

    Edwards, Sian E; Grobman, William A; Lappen, Justin R; Winter, Cathy; Fox, Robert; Lenguerrand, Erik; Draycott, Timothy

    2015-04-01

    We sought to compare the predictive power of published modified obstetric early warning scoring systems (MOEWS) for the development of severe sepsis in women with chorioamnionitis. This was a retrospective cohort study using prospectively collected clinical observations at a single tertiary unit (Chicago, IL). Hospital databases and patient records were searched to identify and verify cases with clinically diagnosed chorioamnionitis during the study period (June 2006 through November 2007). Vital sign data (heart rate, respiratory rate, blood pressure, temperature, mental state) for these cases were extracted from an electronic database and the single worst composite recording was identified for analysis. Global literature databases were searched (2014) to identify examples of MOEWS. Scores for each identified MOEWS were derived from each set of vital sign recordings during the presentation with chorioamnionitis. The performance of these MOEWS (the primary outcome) was then analyzed and compared using their sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and receiver-operating characteristic curve for severe sepsis. Six MOEWS were identified. There was wide variation in design and pathophysiological thresholds used for clinical alerts. In all, 913 women with chorioamnionitis were identified from the clinical database. In all, 364 cases with complete data for all physiological indicators were included in analysis. Five women developed severe sepsis, including 1 woman who died. The sensitivities of the MOEWS in predicting the severe deterioration ranged from 40-100% and the specificities varied even more ranging from 4-97%. The positive predictive values were low for all MOEWS ranging from <2-15%. The MOEWS with simpler designs tended to be more sensitive, whereas the more complex MOEWS were more specific, but failed to identify some of the women who developed severe sepsis. Currently used MOEWS vary widely in terms of alert thresholds, format

  16. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

  17. 49 CFR 234.257 - Warning system operation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning system operation. 234.257 Section 234.257..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.257 Warning system operation. (a) Each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be tested to determine that it functions as intended when it is placed in...

  18. Electrical Distribution System (EDS) and Caution and Warning System (CWS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcclung, T.

    1975-01-01

    An astronaut caution and warning system is described which monitors various life support system parameters and detects out-of-range parameter conditions. The warning system generates a warning tone and displays the malfunction condition to the astronaut along with the proper corrective procedures required.

  19. 14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... takeoff. The warning must continue until— (1) The configuration is changed to allow safe takeoff, or (2... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 23.703 Section 23... Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. For all airplanes with a maximum weight more than 6,000...

  20. 47 CFR 87.483 - Audio visual warning systems.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Audio visual warning systems. 87.483 Section 87... AVIATION SERVICES Stations in the Radiodetermination Service § 87.483 Audio visual warning systems. An audio visual warning system (AVWS) is a radar-based obstacle avoidance system. AVWS activates...

  1. Effectiveness of safety belt warning and interlock systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1973-04-01

    Rental cars in Fayetteville, N.C., were equipped with four seat belt and warning systems: (Phase I) detachable shoulder and lap belt, no warning system; (Phase II) detachable shoulder and lap belt, warning system (January 1, 1972 standard); (Phase II...

  2. 14 CFR 135.153 - Ground proximity warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Ground proximity warning system. 135.153... Equipment § 135.153 Ground proximity warning system. (a) No person may operate a turbine-powered airplane... equipped with an approved ground proximity warning system. (b) [Reserved] (c) For a system required by this...

  3. 14 CFR 135.153 - Ground proximity warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Ground proximity warning system. 135.153... Equipment § 135.153 Ground proximity warning system. (a) No person may operate a turbine-powered airplane... equipped with an approved ground proximity warning system. (b) [Reserved] (c) For a system required by this...

  4. Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

  5. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the...

  6. 49 CFR 234.225 - Activation of warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Activation of warning system. 234.225 Section 234... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.225 Activation of warning system. A highway-rail grade crossing warning system shall be maintained to activate in accordance with the design of the...

  7. Radio disturbance warning issuance system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maeda, R.; Inuki, H.

    1979-01-01

    A radio disturbance warning issuance system was introduced in the Hiraiso Branch of the Radio Research Laboratories in 1972 to reconstruct the current radio disturbance warning service as a social information service. A description of the new ideas which were experimentally systematized by means of an electronic computer is presented.

  8. End points for validating early warning scores in the context of rapid response systems: a Delphi consensus study.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, N E; Oestergaard, D; Lippert, A

    2016-05-01

    When investigating early warning scores and similar physiology-based risk stratification tools, death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission are traditionally used as end points. A large proportion of the patients identified by these end points cannot be saved, even with optimal treatment. This could pose a limitation to studies using these end points. We studied current expert opinion on end points for validating tools for the identification of patients in hospital wards at risk of imminent critical illness. The Delphi consensus methodology was used. We identified 22 experts based on objective criteria; 17 participated in the study. Each expert panel member's suggestions for end points were collected and distributed to the entire expert panel in anonymised form. The experts reviewed, rated and commented the suggested end points through the rounds in the Delphi process, and the experts' combined rating of the usefulness of each suggestion was established. A gross list of 86 suggestions for end points, relating to 13 themes, was produced. No items were uniformly recognised as ideal. The themes cardiac arrest, death, and level of care contained the items receiving highest ratings. End points relating to death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission currently comprise the most obvious compromises for investigating early warning scores and similar risk stratification tools. Additional end points from the gross list of suggested end points could become feasible with the increased availability of large data sets with a multitude of recorded parameters. © 2015 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Using Quality Improvement to Introduce and Standardize the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for Adult Inpatients at a Children's Hospital.

    PubMed

    Conway-Habes, Erin E; Herbst, Brian F; Herbst, Lori A; Kinnear, Benjamin; Timmons, Kristen; Horewitz, Deborah; Falgout, Rachel; O'Toole, Jennifer K; Vossmeyer, Michael

    2017-03-01

    The population of adults with childhood-onset chronic illness is growing across children's hospitals and constitutes a high risk population. National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is among the most recently validated adult early warning scores (EWSs) for early recognition of and response to clinical deterioration. Our aim was to implement and standardize NEWS scoring in 80% of patients age 21 and older admitted to a children's hospital. Our intervention was tested on a single unit of our children's hospital. The primary process measure was the percentage of NEWS documented within 1 hour of routine nursing assessments, and was tracked using a run chart. Improvement activities focused on effective training, key stakeholder buy-in, increased awareness, real-time mitigation of failures, accountability for adherence, and action-oriented response. We also tracked the distribution of NEWS values and medical emergency team calls. The percentage of NEWS documented with routine nursing assessments for patients age 21 and over increased from 0% to 90% within 15 weeks and remained at 77% or greater for 17 weeks. Our distribution of NEWS values was similar to previously reported NEWS distribution. A nurse-driven adult early warning system for inpatients age 21 and older at a children's hospital can be achieved through a standardized EWS assessment process, incorporation into the electronic health record, and charge nurse and key stakeholder oversight. Furthermore, implementation of an adult EWS being used at a pediatric institution and our distribution of NEWS values were comparable to distribution published from adult hospitals. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  10. Systems and Sensors for Debris-flow Monitoring and Warning

    PubMed Central

    Arattano, Massimo; Marchi, Lorenzo

    2008-01-01

    Debris flows are a type of mass movement that occurs in mountain torrents. They consist of a high concentration of solid material in water that flows as a wave with a steep front. Debris flows can be considered a phenomenon intermediate between landslides and water floods. They are amongst the most hazardous natural processes in mountainous regions and may occur under different climatic conditions. Their destructiveness is due to different factors: their capability of transporting and depositing huge amounts of solid materials, which may also reach large sizes (boulders of several cubic meters are commonly transported by debris flows), their steep fronts, which may reach several meters of height and also their high velocities. The implementation of both structural and non-structural control measures is often required when debris flows endanger routes, urban areas and other infrastructures. Sensor networks for debris-flow monitoring and warning play an important role amongst non-structural measures intended to reduce debris-flow risk. In particular, debris flow warning systems can be subdivided into two main classes: advance warning and event warning systems. These two classes employ different types of sensors. Advance warning systems are based on monitoring causative hydrometeorological processes (typically rainfall) and aim to issue a warning before a possible debris flow is triggered. Event warning systems are based on detecting debris flows when these processes are in progress. They have a much smaller lead time than advance warning ones but are also less prone to false alarms. Advance warning for debris flows employs sensors and techniques typical of meteorology and hydrology, including measuring rainfall by means of rain gauges and weather radar and monitoring water discharge in headwater streams. Event warning systems use different types of sensors, encompassing ultrasonic or radar gauges, ground vibration sensors, videocameras, avalanche pendulums

  11. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  12. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

    PubMed

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-10-28

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

  13. Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

    PubMed Central

    Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

    2015-01-01

    Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

  14. The CURB65 pneumonia severity score outperforms generic sepsis and early warning scores in predicting mortality in community‐acquired pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Barlow, Gavin; Nathwani, Dilip; Davey, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Background The performance of CURB65 in predicting mortality in community‐acquired pneumonia (CAP) has been tested in two large observational studies. However, it has not been tested against generic sepsis and early warning scores, which are increasingly being advocated for identification of high‐risk patients in acute medical wards. Method A retrospective analysis was performed of data prospectively collected for a CAP quality improvement study. The ability to stratify mortality and performance characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the receiver operating curve) were calculated for stratifications of CURB65, CRB65, the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria and the standardised early warning score (SEWS). Results 419 patients were included in the main analysis with a median age of 74 years (men = 47%). CURB65 and CRB65 stratified mortality in a more clinically useful way and had more favourable operating characteristics than SIRS or SEWS; for example, mortality in low‐risk patients was 2% when defined by CURB65, but 9% when defined by SEWS and 11–17% when defined by variations of the SIRS criteria. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of CURB65 was 71%, 69%, 35% and 91%, respectively, compared with 62%, 73%, 35% and 89% for the best performing version of SIRS and 52%, 67%, 27% and 86% for SEWS. CURB65 had the greatest area under the receiver operating curve (0.78 v 0.73 for CRB65, 0.68 for SIRS and 0.64 for SEWS). Conclusions CURB65 should not be supplanted by SIRS or SEWS for initial prognostic assessment in CAP. Further research to identify better generic prognostic tools is required. PMID:16928720

  15. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211 Section 234.211 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD....211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall...

  16. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211 Section 234.211 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD....211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall...

  17. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211 Section 234.211 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) FEDERAL RAILROAD....211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall...

  18. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall be secured against unauthorized entry. ...

  19. 49 CFR 234.211 - Security of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security of warning system apparatus. 234.211... Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Maintenance Standards § 234.211 Security of warning system apparatus. Highway-rail grade crossing warning system apparatus shall be secured against unauthorized entry. ...

  20. Highway fog warning system

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-04-01

    The need for a highway fog warning system has long been internationally recognized. With such a system, motorists can avoid tragic pile-up accidents caused by dense or patchy fog. The development of a cost-effective highway visibility sensor that mea...

  1. Implementation of a novel postoperative monitoring system using automated Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) incorporating end-tidal capnography.

    PubMed

    Blankush, Joseph M; Freeman, Robbie; McIlvaine, Joy; Tran, Trung; Nassani, Stephen; Leitman, I Michael

    2017-10-01

    Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) provide real-time vital sign (VS) trending and reduce ICU admissions in post-operative patients. These early warning calculations classically incorporate oxygen saturation, heart rate, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, and temperature but have not previously included end-tidal CO2 (EtCO 2 ), more recently identified as an independent predictor of critical illness. These systems may be subject to failure when physiologic data is incorrectly measured, leading to false alarms and increased workload. This study investigates whether the implementation of automated devices that utilize ongoing vital signs monitoring and MEWS calculations, inclusive of a score for end-tidal CO 2 (EtCO 2 ), can be feasibly implemented on the general care hospital floor and effectively identify derangements in a post-operative patient's condition while limiting the amount of false alarms that would serve to increase provider workload. From July to November 2014, post-operative patients meeting the inclusion criteria (BMI > 30 kg/m 2 , history of obstructive sleep apnea, or the use of patient-controlled analgesia (PCA) or epidural narcotics) were monitored using automated devices that record minute-by-minute VS included in classic MEWS calculations as well as EtCO 2 . Automated messages via pagers were sent to providers for instances when the device measured elevated MEWS, abnormal EtCO 2 , and oxygen desaturations below 85 %. Data, including alarm and message details from the first 133 patients, were recorded and analyzed. Overall, 3.3 alarms and pages sounded per hour of monitoring. Device-only alarms sounded 2.7 times per hour-21 % were technical alarms. The remaining device-only alarms for concerning VS sounded 2.0/h, 70 % for falsely recorded VS. Pages for abnormal EtCO 2 sounded 0.4/h (82 % false recordings) while pages for low blood oxygen saturation sounded 0.1/h (55 % false alarms). 143 times (0.1 pages/h) the devices calculated

  2. Design of vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yangyang; Wang, Ying

    2018-05-01

    This paper mainly designs a low cost, high-accuracy, micro-miniaturization, and digital display and acousto-optic alarm features of the vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system that based on MCU AT89C51. The vehicle intelligent anti-collision warning system includes forward anti-collision warning system, auto parking systems and reversing anti-collision radar system. It mainly develops on the basis of ultrasonic distance measurement, its performance is reliable, thus the driving safety is greatly improved and the parking security and efficiency enhance enormously.

  3. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

  4. 14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  5. 14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  6. 14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  7. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

  8. 14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  9. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

  10. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

  11. 14 CFR 91.223 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 91..., and Certificate Requirements § 91.223 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured... seat, unless that airplane is equipped with an approved terrain awareness and warning system that as a...

  12. 14 CFR 135.154 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 135... Aircraft and Equipment § 135.154 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  13. 14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  14. 14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  15. 14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  16. 14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  17. 14 CFR 121.354 - Terrain awareness and warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Terrain awareness and warning system. 121... § 121.354 Terrain awareness and warning system. (a) Airplanes manufactured after March 29, 2002. No... awareness and warning system that meets the requirements for Class A equipment in Technical Standard Order...

  18. Centile-based early warning scores derived from statistical distributions of vital signs.

    PubMed

    Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifton, David A; Pinsky, Michael R; Hravnak, Marilyn T; Woods, John R; Watkinson, Peter J

    2011-08-01

    To develop an early warning score (EWS) system based on the statistical properties of the vital signs in at-risk hospitalised patients. A large dataset comprising 64,622 h of vital-sign data, acquired from 863 acutely ill in-hospital patients using bedside monitors, was used to investigate the statistical properties of the four main vital signs. Normalised histograms and cumulative distribution functions were plotted for each of the four variables. A centile-based alerting system was modelled using the aggregated database. The means and standard deviations of our population's vital signs are very similar to those published in previous studies. When compared with EWS systems based on a future outcome, the cut-off values in our system are most different for respiratory rate and systolic blood pressure. With four-hourly observations in a 12-h shift, about 1 in 8 at-risk patients would trigger our alerting system during the shift. A centile-based EWS system will identify patients with abnormal vital signs regardless of their eventual outcome and might therefore be more likely to generate an alert when presented with patients with redeemable morbidity or avoidable mortality. We are about to start a stepped-wedge clinical trial gradually introducing an electronic version of our EWS system on the trauma wards in a teaching hospital. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    Saab, Mohamad M; McCarthy, Bridie; Andrews, Tom; Savage, Eileen; Drummond, Frances J; Walshe, Nuala; Forde, Mary; Breen, Dorothy; Henn, Patrick; Drennan, Jonathan; Hegarty, Josephine

    2017-11-01

    This review aims to determine the effect of adult Early Warning Systems education on nurses' knowledge, confidence and clinical performance. Early Warning Systems support timely identification of clinical deterioration and prevention of avoidable deaths. Several educational programmes have been designed to help nurses recognize and manage deteriorating patients. Little is known as to the effectiveness of these programmes. Systematic review. Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PsycARTICLES, Psychology and Behavioral Science Collection, SocINDEX and the UK & Ireland Reference Centre, EMBASE, the Turning Research Into Practice database, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Grey Literature sources were searched between October and November 2015. This is a quantitative systematic review using Cochrane methods. Studies published between January 2011 - November 2015 in English were sought. The risk of bias, level of evidence and the quality of evidence per outcome were assessed. Eleven articles with 10 studies were included. Nine studies addressed clinical performance, four addressed knowledge and two addressed confidence. Knowledge, vital signs recording and Early Warning Score calculation were improved in the short term. Two interventions had no effect on nurses' response to clinical deterioration and use of communication tools. This review highlights the importance of measuring outcomes using standardized tools and valid and reliable instruments. Using longitudinal designs, researchers are encouraged to investigate the effect of Early Warning Systems educational programmes. These can include interactive e-learning, on-site interdisciplinary Early Warning Scoring systems training sessions and simulated scenarios. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

    2015-01-01

    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  1. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  2. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  3. Time-to-impact estimation in passive missile warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Şahıngıl, Mehmet Cihan

    2017-05-01

    A missile warning system can detect the incoming missile threat(s) and automatically cue the other Electronic Attack (EA) systems in the suit, such as Directed Infrared Counter Measure (DIRCM) system and/or Counter Measure Dispensing System (CMDS). Most missile warning systems are currently based on passive sensor technology operating in either Solar Blind Ultraviolet (SBUV) or Midwave Infrared (MWIR) bands on which there is an intensive emission from the exhaust plume of the threatening missile. Although passive missile warning systems have some clear advantages over pulse-Doppler radar (PDR) based active missile warning systems, they show poorer performance in terms of time-to-impact (TTI) estimation which is critical for optimizing the countermeasures and also "passive kill assessment". In this paper, we consider this problem, namely, TTI estimation from passive measurements and present a TTI estimation scheme which can be used in passive missile warning systems. Our problem formulation is based on Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The algorithm uses the area parameter of the threat plume which is derived from the used image frame.

  4. Personal Cabin Pressure Monitor and Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zysko, Jan A. (Inventor)

    2002-01-01

    A cabin pressure altitude monitor and warning system provides a warning when a detected cabin pressure altitude has reached a predetermined level. The system is preferably embodied in a portable, pager-sized device that can be carried or worn by an individual. A microprocessor calculates the pressure altitude from signals generated by a calibrated pressure transducer and a temperature sensor that compensates for temperature variations in the signals generated by the pressure transducer. The microprocessor is programmed to generate a warning or alarm if a cabin pressure altitude exceeding a predetermined threshold is detected. Preferably, the microprocessor generates two different types of warning or alarm outputs, a first early warning or alert when a first pressure altitude is exceeded. and a second more serious alarm condition when either a second. higher pressure altitude is exceeded, or when the first pressure altitude has been exceeded for a predetermined period of time. Multiple types of alarm condition indicators are preferably provided, including visual, audible and tactile. The system is also preferably designed to detect gas concentrations and other ambient conditions, and thus incorporates other sensors, such as oxygen, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and ammonia sensors, to provide a more complete characterization and monitoring of the local environment.

  5. Personal Cabin Pressure Monitor and Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zysko, Jan A.

    2002-09-01

    A cabin pressure altitude monitor and warning system provides a warning when a detected cabin pressure altitude has reached a predetermined level. The system is preferably embodied in a portable, pager-sized device that can be carried or worn by an individual. A microprocessor calculates the pressure altitude from signals generated by a calibrated pressure transducer and a temperature sensor that compensates for temperature variations in the signals generated by the pressure transducer. The microprocessor is programmed to generate a warning or alarm if a cabin pressure altitude exceeding a predetermined threshold is detected. Preferably, the microprocessor generates two different types of warning or alarm outputs, a first early warning or alert when a first pressure altitude is exceeded. and a second more serious alarm condition when either a second. higher pressure altitude is exceeded, or when the first pressure altitude has been exceeded for a predetermined period of time. Multiple types of alarm condition indicators are preferably provided, including visual, audible and tactile. The system is also preferably designed to detect gas concentrations and other ambient conditions, and thus incorporates other sensors, such as oxygen, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and ammonia sensors, to provide a more complete characterization and monitoring of the local environment.

  6. Air quality early-warning system for cities in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yunzhen; Yang, Wendong; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-01-01

    Air pollution has become a serious issue in many developing countries, especially in China, and could generate adverse effects on human beings. Air quality early-warning systems play an increasingly significant role in regulatory plans that reduce and control emissions of air pollutants and inform the public in advance when harmful air pollution is foreseen. However, building a robust early-warning system that will improve the ability of early-warning is not only a challenge but also a critical issue for the entire society. Relevant research is still poor in China and cannot always satisfy the growing requirements of regulatory planning, despite the issue's significance. Therefore, in this paper, a hybrid air quality early-warning system was successfully developed, composed of forecasting and evaluation. First, a hybrid forecasting model was proposed as an important part of this system based on the theory of "decomposition and ensemble" and combined with the advanced data processing technique, support vector machine, the latest bio-inspired optimization algorithm and the leave-one-out strategy for deciding weights. Afterwards, to intensify the research, fuzzy evaluation was performed, which also plays an indispensable role in the early-warning system. The forecasting model and fuzzy evaluation approaches are complementary. Case studies using daily air pollution concentrations of six air pollutants from three cities in China (i.e., Taiyuan, Harbin and Chongqing) are used as examples to evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. Experimental results demonstrate that both the accuracy and the effectiveness of the developed system are greatly superior for air quality early warning. Furthermore, the application of forecasting and evaluation enables the informative and effective quantification of future air quality, offering a significant advantage, and can be employed to develop rapid air quality early-warning systems.

  7. Warning systems in risk management.

    PubMed

    Paté-Cornell, M E

    1986-06-01

    A method is presented here that allows probabilistic evaluation and optimization of warning systems, and comparison of their performance and cost-effectiveness with those of other means of risk management. The model includes an assessment of the signals, and of human response, given the memory that people have kept of the quality of previous alerts. The trade-off between the rate of false alerts and the length of the lead time is studied to account for the long-term effects of "crying wolf" and the effectiveness of emergency actions. An explicit formulation of the system's benefits, including inputs from a signal model, a response model, and a consequence model, is given to allow optimization of the warning threshold and of the system's sensitivity.

  8. DETECTION OR WARNING SYSTEM

    DOEpatents

    Tillman, J E

    1953-10-20

    This patent application describes a sensitive detection or protective system capable of giving an alarm or warning upon the entrance or intrusion of any body into a defined area or zone protected by a radiation field of suitable direction or extent.

  9. Early Warning System Implementation Guide: For Use with the National High School Center's Early Warning System Tool v2.0

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Therriault, Susan Bowles; Heppen, Jessica; O'Cummings, Mindee; Fryer, Lindsay; Johnson, Amy

    2010-01-01

    This Early Warning System (EWS) Implementation Guide is a supporting document for schools and districts that are implementing the National High School Center's Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0. Developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research (AIR), the guide and tool support the establishment and…

  10. The new Euskalmet coastal-maritime warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaztelumendi, Santiago; Egaña, Joseba; Liria, Pedro; Gonzalez, Manuel; Aranda, José Antonio; Anitua, Pedro

    2016-06-01

    This work presents the main characteristics of the Basque Meteorology Agency (Euskalmet) maritime-coastal risk warning system, with special emphasis on the latest updates, including a clear differentiation on specific warning messages addressing sea conditions for navigation purposes in the first 2 nautical miles, and expected coastal impacts. Some details of the warning bulletin for maritime and coastal risk situations are also presented, together with other communication products and strategies used in coastal and maritime severe episodes at the Basque coast. Today, three different aspects are included in the coastal-maritime risk warning system in Basque Country, related to the main potential severe events that affecting coastal activities. - "Galerna" risk relates to a sudden wind reversal that can severely affect coastal navigation and recreational activities. - "Navigation" risk relates to severe sea state conditions for 0-2 miles, affecting different navigation activities. - "Coastal impact" risk relates to adverse wave characteristics and tidal surges that induce flooding events and different impacts in littoral areas.

  11. Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Clear Air Force Station, ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Ballistic Missile Early Warning System - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

  12. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  13. Experimental evaluation of fog warning system.

    PubMed

    Al-Ghamdi, Ali S

    2007-11-01

    Highway safety is a major concern to the public and to transportation professionals, so the number of crashes caused by poor visibility due to fog form an alarming statistic. Drivers respond to poor visibility conditions in different ways: some slow down; others do not. Many drivers simply follow the taillights of the vehicle ahead. Accordingly, hazardous conditions are created in which speeds are both too high for the prevailing conditions and highly variable. Findings are presented from a study of traffic crashes due to fog in the southern region of Saudi Arabia. The primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of fog detection and warning system on driver behavior regarding speed and headway. This warning system includes visibility sensors that automatically activate a variable message sign that posts an advisory speed when hazardous conditions due to fog occur. The system was installed on a 2 km section of a two-lane, rural highway. A data set of 36,013 observations from both experimental and control sections at two study sites was collected and analyzed. The data included vehicle speed, volume, and classification; time headway, time of day, and visibility distance. Although the warning system was ineffective in reducing speed variability, mean speed throughout the experimental sections was reduced by about 6.5 kph. This reduction indicates that the warning system appeared to have a positive effect on driver behavior in fog even though the observed mean speeds were still higher than the posted advisory speed. From relationships found in the literature between mean driving speed and number of crashes, a speed reduction of only 5 kph would yield a 15% decrease in the number of crashes.

  14. Studying the response of drivers against different collision warning systems: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muzammel, M.; Yusoff, M. Zuki; Malik, A. Saeed; Mohamad Saad, M. Naufal; Meriaudeau, F.

    2017-03-01

    The number of vehicle accidents is rapidly increasing and causing significant economic losses in many countries. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents will become the fifth major cause of death by the year 2030. To minimize these accidents different types of collision warning systems have been proposed for motor vehicle drivers. These systems can early detect and warn the drivers about the potential danger, up to a certain accuracy. Many researchers study the effectiveness of these systems by using different methods, including Electroencephalography (EEG). From the literature review, it has been observed that, these systems increase the drivers' response and can help to minimize the accidents that may occur due to drivers unconsciousness. For these collision warning systems, tactile early warnings are found more effective as compared to the auditory and visual early warnings. This review also highlights the areas, where further research can be performed to fully analyze the collision warning system. For example, some contradictions are found among researchers, about these systems' performance for drivers within different age groups. Similarly, most of the EEG studies focus on the front collision warning systems and only give beep sound to alert the drivers. Therefore, EEG study can be performed for the rear end collision warning systems, against proper auditory warning messages which indicate the types of hazards. This EEG study will help to design more friendly collision warning system and may save many lives.

  15. Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems Clear Air ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    Alaskan Air Defense and Early Warning Systems - Clear Air Force Station, Ballistic Missile Early Warning System Site II, One mile west of mile marker 293.5 on Parks Highway, 5 miles southwest of Anderson, Anderson, Denali Borough, AK

  16. Lights and siren: a review of emergency vehicle warning systems.

    PubMed

    De Lorenzo, R A; Eilers, M A

    1991-12-01

    Emergency medical services providers routinely respond to emergencies using lights and siren. This practice is not without risk of collision. Audible and visual warning devices and vehicle markings are integral to efficient negotiation of traffic and reduction of collision risk. An understanding of warning system characteristics is necessary to implement appropriate guidelines for prehospital transportation systems. The pertinent literature on emergency vehicle warning systems is reviewed, with emphasis on potential health hazards associated with these techniques. Important findings inferred from the literature are 1) red flashing lights alone may not be as effective as other color combinations, 2) there are no data to support a seizure risk with strobe lights, 3) lime-yellow is probably superior to traditional emergency vehicle colors, 4) the siren is an extremely limited warning device, and 5) exposure to siren noise can cause hearing loss. Emergency physicians must ensure that emergency medical services transportation systems consider the pertinent literature on emergency vehicle warning systems.

  17. The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bukley, Angelia P.; Mulqueen, John A.

    1994-01-01

    Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

  18. Technology-Based Early Warning Systems for Bipolar Disorder: A Conceptual Framework

    PubMed Central

    Torous, John; Thompson, Wesley

    2016-01-01

    Recognition and timely action around “warning signs” of illness exacerbation is central to the self-management of bipolar disorder. Due to its heterogeneity and fluctuating course, passive and active mobile technologies have been increasingly evaluated as adjunctive or standalone tools to predict and prevent risk of worsening of course in bipolar disorder. As predictive analytics approaches to big data from mobile health (mHealth) applications and ancillary sensors advance, it is likely that early warning systems will increasingly become available to patients. Such systems could reduce the amount of time spent experiencing symptoms and diminish the immense disability experienced by people with bipolar disorder. However, in addition to the challenges in validating such systems, we argue that early warning systems may not be without harms. Probabilistic warnings may be delivered to individuals who may not be able to interpret the warning, have limited information about what behaviors to change, or are unprepared to or cannot feasibly act due to time or logistic constraints. We propose five essential elements for early warning systems and provide a conceptual framework for designing, incorporating stakeholder input, and validating early warning systems for bipolar disorder with a focus on pragmatic considerations. PMID:27604265

  19. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... Maintenance Standards § 234.205 Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating... system shall be maintained in accordance with the limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  20. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... Maintenance Standards § 234.205 Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating... system shall be maintained in accordance with the limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  1. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Operating characteristics of warning system... Maintenance Standards § 234.205 Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating... system shall be maintained in accordance with the limits within which the system is designed to operate. ...

  2. Adapting ISA system warnings to enhance user acceptance.

    PubMed

    Jiménez, Felipe; Liang, Yingzhen; Aparicio, Francisco

    2012-09-01

    Inappropriate speed is a major cause of traffic accidents. Different measures have been considered to control traffic speed, and intelligent speed adaptation (ISA) systems are one of the alternatives. These systems know the speed limits and try to improve compliance with them. This paper deals with an informative ISA system that provides the driver with an advance warning before reaching a road section with singular characteristics that require a lower safe speed than the current speed. In spite of the extensive tests performed using ISA systems, few works show how warnings can be adapted to the driver. This paper describes a method to adapt warning parameters (safe speed on curves, zone of influence of a singular stretch, deceleration process and reaction time) to normal driving behavior. The method is based on a set of tests with and without the ISA system. This adjustment, as well as the analysis of driver acceptance before and after the adaptation and changes in driver behavior (changes in speed and path) resulting from the tested ISA regarding a driver's normal driving style, is shown in this paper. The main conclusion is that acceptance by drivers increased significantly after redefining the warning parameters, but the effect of speed homogenization was not reduced. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of a Road-Departure Crash Warning System.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2007-12-31

    This report presents the results of an independent evaluation of the Road-Departure Crash Warning System (RDCW), which is designed to warn drivers when they are drifting out of their lane or about to enter a curve at an unsafe speed. The RDCW lateral...

  4. NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,

    2005-01-01

    Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a

  5. Implementing the national AIGA flash flood warning system in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Organde, Didier; Javelle, Pierre; Demargne, Julie; Arnaud, Patrick; Caseri, Angelica; Fine, Jean-Alain; de Saint Aubin, Céline

    2015-04-01

    evaluated with contingency criteria (e.g., Critical Success Index, Probability Of Detection, Success Ratio) using operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France for the 2009-2012 period. The regionalised parameters of the distributed model were finally adjusted for each homogeneous hydrological area to optimize the Heidke skill score (HSS) calculated with three levels of warnings (2-, 10- and 50-year flood quantiles). This work is currently being implemented by the SCHAPI to set up an automated national flash flood warning system by 2016. Planned improvements include developing a unique continuous model to be run at a sub-hourly timestep, discharge assimilation, as well as integrating precipitation forecasts while accounting for the main sources of forecast uncertainty. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., and Arnaud, P. 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

  6. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  7. Designing Fatigue Warning Systems: The perspective of professional drivers.

    PubMed

    Meng, Fanxing; Li, Shuling; Cao, Lingzhi; Peng, Qijia; Li, Musen; Wang, Chunhui; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    Professional drivers have been characterized as experiencing heavy fatigue resulting from long driving time in their daily work. This study aimed to explore the potential demand of Fatigue Warning Systems (FWSs) among professional drivers as a means of reducing the danger of fatigue driving and to examine their opinions regarding the design of FWSs. Six focus groups with 35 participants and a questionnaire survey with 600 respondents were conducted among Chinese truck and taxi drivers to collect qualitative and quantitative data concerning the current situation of fatigue driving and opinions regarding the design of FWSs. The results revealed that both truck and taxi drivers had a positive attitude toward FWSs, and they hoped this system could not only monitor and warn them regarding their fatigue but also somewhat relieve their fatigue before they could stop and rest. As for warning signals, participants preferred auditory warnings, as opposed to visual, vibrotactile or electric stimuli. Interestingly, it was proposed that verbal warnings involving the information regarding consequences of fatigue driving or the wishes of drivers' family members would be more effective. Additionally, different warning patterns, including graded, single and continuous warnings, were discussed in the focus group. Finally, the participants proposed many other suggestions, as well as their concerns regarding FWSs, which will provide valuable information for companies who wish to develop FWSs for professional drivers. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  9. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... apparatus. 234.205 Section 234.205 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or electrical apparatus of each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be maintained in accordance with the...

  10. 49 CFR 234.205 - Operating characteristics of warning system apparatus.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... apparatus. 234.205 Section 234.205 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued... characteristics of warning system apparatus. Operating characteristics of electromagnetic, electronic, or electrical apparatus of each highway-rail crossing warning system shall be maintained in accordance with the...

  11. 14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Design and Construction Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. For commuter category airplanes, unless it can be shown...

  12. 14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Design and Construction Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. For commuter category airplanes, unless it can be shown...

  13. Medical devices; ovarian adnexal mass assessment score test system; labeling; black box restrictions. Final rule.

    PubMed

    2011-12-30

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is amending the regulation classifying ovarian adnexal mass assessment score test systems to restrict these devices so that a prescribed warning statement that addresses a risk identified in the special controls guidance document must be in a black box and must appear in all labeling, advertising, and promotional material. The black box warning mitigates the risk to health associated with off-label use as a screening test, stand-alone diagnostic test, or as a test to determine whether or not to proceed with surgery.

  14. Mobile machine hazardous working zone warning system

    DOEpatents

    Schiffbauer, William H.; Ganoe, Carl W.

    1999-01-01

    A warning system is provided for a mobile working machine to alert an individual of a potentially dangerous condition in the event the individual strays into a hazardous working zone of the machine. The warning system includes a transmitter mounted on the machine and operable to generate a uniform magnetic field projecting beyond an outer periphery of the machine in defining a hazardous working zone around the machine during operation thereof. A receiver, carried by the individual and activated by the magnetic field, provides an alarm signal to alert the individual when he enters the hazardous working zone of the machine.

  15. Mobile machine hazardous working zone warning system

    DOEpatents

    Schiffbauer, W.H.; Ganoe, C.W.

    1999-08-17

    A warning system is provided for a mobile working machine to alert an individual of a potentially dangerous condition in the event the individual strays into a hazardous working zone of the machine. The warning system includes a transmitter mounted on the machine and operable to generate a uniform magnetic field projecting beyond an outer periphery of the machine in defining a hazardous working zone around the machine during operation. A receiver, carried by the individual and activated by the magnetic field, provides an alarm signal to alert the individual when he enters the hazardous working zone of the machine. 3 figs.

  16. Analysis and design of the ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Hu, Hui-jun; Jin, Dong-dong; Chu, Xin-bo; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Liu, Jin-sheng; Xiao, Ting; Shao, Si-pei

    2017-10-01

    Ultraviolet warning technology is one of the important methods for missile warning. It provides a very effective way to detect the target for missile approaching alarm. With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. Compared to infrared warning, the ultraviolet warning has high efficiency and low false alarm rate. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge of missile warning technology. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. For the ultraviolet warning system, the optimal working waveband is 250 nm 280 nm (Solar Blind UV) due to the strong absorption of ozone layer. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes ultraviolet warning optical system based on interference imaging, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure includes a primary optical system, an ultraviolet reflector array, an ultraviolet imaging system and an ultraviolet interference imaging system. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm.A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  17. Towards Operational Meteotsunami Early Warning System: the Adriatic Project MESSI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilibic, I.; Sepic, J.; Denamiel, C. L.; Mihanovic, H.; Muslim, S.; Tudor, M.; Ivankovic, D.; Jelavic, D.; Kovacevic, V.; Masce, T.; Dadic, V.; Gacic, M.; Horvath, K.; Monserrat, S.; Rabinovich, A.; Telisman-Prtenjak, M.

    2017-12-01

    A number of destructive meteotsunamis - atmospherically-driven long ocean waves in a tsunami frequency band - occurred during the last decade through the world oceans. Owing to significant damage caused by these meteotsunamis, several scientific groups (occasionally in collaboration with public offices) have started developing meteotsunami warning systems. Creation of one such system has been initialized in the late 2015 within the MESSI (Meteotsunamis, destructive long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band: from observations and simulations towards a warning system) project. Main goal of this project is to build a prototype of a meteotsunami warning system for the eastern Adriatic coast. The system will be based on real-time measurements, operational atmosphere and ocean modeling and real time decision-making process. Envisioned MESSI meteotsunami warning system consists of three modules: (1) synoptic warning module, which will use established correlation between forecasted synoptic fields and high-frequency sea level oscillations to provide qualitative meteotsunami forecasts for up to a week in advance, (2) probabilistic premodeling prediction module, which will use operational WRF-ROMS-ADCIRC modeling system and compare the forecast with an atlas of presimulations to get the probabilistic meteotsunami forecast for up to three days in advance, and (3) real-time module, which is based on real time tracking of properties of air pressure disturbance (amplitude, speed, direction, period, ...) and their real-time comparison with the atlas of meteotsunami simulations. System will be tested on recent meteotsunami events which were recorded in the MESSI area shortly after the operational meteotsunami network installation. Albeit complex, such a multilevel warning system has a potential to be adapted to most meteotsunami hot spots, simply by tuning the system parameters to the available atmospheric and ocean data.

  18. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements.

    PubMed

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J

    2017-01-10

    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word "WARNING", and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use.

  19. 14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Design and Construction Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. Link to an amendment published at 76 FR 75757, December 2...

  20. 14 CFR 23.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: NORMAL, UTILITY, ACROBATIC, AND COMMUTER CATEGORY AIRPLANES Design and Construction Control Systems § 23.703 Takeoff warning system. For all airplanes with a maximum weight more than 6,000...

  1. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  2. Global Tsunami Warning System Development Since 2004

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinstein, S.; Becker, N. C.; Wang, D.; Fryer, G. J.; McCreery, C.; Hirshorn, B. F.

    2014-12-01

    The 9.1 Mw Great Sumatra Earthquake of Dec. 26, 2004, generated the most destructive tsunami in history killing 227,000 people along Indian Ocean coastlines and was recorded by sea-level instruments world-wide. This tragedy showed the Indian Ocean needed a tsunami warning system to prevent another tragedy on this scale. The Great Sumatra Earthquake also highlighted the need for tsunami warning systems in other ocean basins. Instruments for recording earthquakes and sea-level data useful for tsunami monitoring did not exist outside of the Pacific Ocean in 2004. Seismometers were few in number, and even fewer were high-quality long period broadband instruments. Nor was much of their data made available to the US tsunami warning centers (TWCs). In 2004 the US TWCs relied exclusively on instrumentation provided and maintained by IRIS and the USGS for areas outside of the Pacific.Since 2004, the US TWCs and their partners have made substantial improvements to seismic and sea-level monitoring networks with the addition of new and better instruments, densification of existing networks, better communications infrastructure, and improved data sharing among tsunami warning centers. In particular, the number of sea-level stations transmitting data in near real-time and the amount of seismic data available to the tsunami warning centers has more than tripled. The DART network that consisted of a half-dozen Pacific stations in 2004 now totals nearly 60 stations worldwide. Earthquake and tsunami science has progressed as well. It took nearly three weeks to obtain the first reliable estimates of the 2004 Sumatra Earthquake's magnitude. Today, thanks to improved seismic networks and modern computing power, TWCs use the W-phase seismic moment method to determine accurate earthquake magnitudes and focal mechanisms for great earthquakes within 25 minutes. TWC scientists have also leveraged these modern computers to generate tsunami forecasts in a matter of minutes.Progress towards a

  3. Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

    2008-05-01

    PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and

  4. The Trend of Voluntary Warnings in Electronic Nicotine Delivery System Magazine Advertisements

    PubMed Central

    Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J.

    2017-01-01

    Some manufacturers of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) voluntarily carried health warnings in their advertisements. This study examined these voluntary warnings in magazine ads and plotted their trends between 2012 and early 2015. ENDS magazine ads were obtained through Kantar media and warnings were collected from the Chicago Public Library or the Trinkets and Trash surveillance system. The prevalence of voluntary warnings, warnings with the specific capitalized word “WARNING”, and MarkTen warnings were examined after being weighted using factors related to exposure between January 2012 and March 2015. Five brands (MarkTen, NJOY, MISTIC, and some Blu) carried warnings during the study period. The prevalence of warnings post 2012 that contained a description of nicotine did not significantly increase until the launch of MarkTen, which also happened several months before April 2014 when the U.S. food and drug administration (FDA) published its proposed deeming rule. In addition, none of these warnings met the criteria required by the FDA in the final rules. Voluntary warnings, particularly MarkTen warnings, significantly increased in ENDS magazine ads between 2014 and 2015. It is important to monitor how ENDS manufacturers will comply with the FDA regulation related to warnings and how this regulation will ultimately impact ENDS risk perceptions and use. PMID:28075420

  5. Advanced driver assistance systems: Using multimodal redundant warnings to enhance road safety.

    PubMed

    Biondi, Francesco; Strayer, David L; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Mulatti, Claudio

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated whether multimodal redundant warnings presented by advanced assistance systems reduce brake response times. Warnings presented by assistance systems are designed to assist drivers by informing them that evasive driving maneuvers are needed in order to avoid a potential accident. If these warnings are poorly designed, they may distract drivers, slow their responses, and reduce road safety. In two experiments, participants drove a simulated vehicle equipped with a forward collision avoidance system. Auditory, vibrotactile, and multimodal warnings were presented when the time to collision was shorter than five seconds. The effects of these warnings were investigated with participants performing a concurrent cell phone conversation (Exp. 1) or driving in high-density traffic (Exp. 2). Braking times and subjective workload were measured. Multimodal redundant warnings elicited faster braking reaction times. These warnings were found to be effective even when talking on a cell phone (Exp. 1) or driving in dense traffic (Exp. 2). Multimodal warnings produced higher ratings of urgency, but ratings of frustration did not increase compared to other warnings. Findings obtained in these two experiments are important given that faster braking responses may reduce the potential for a collision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.

    2010-12-01

    In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.

  7. Real-Time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-04-01

    T. Perkins, R. Sundberg, J. Cordell, Z. Tun , and M. Owen, Real-time Target Motion Animation for Missile Warning System Testing, Proc. SPIE Vol 6208...Z39-18 Real-time target motion animation for missile warning system testing Timothy Perkins*a, Robert Sundberga, John Cordellb, Zaw Tunb, Mark

  8. Urban Flood Prevention and Early Warning System in Jinan City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Shiyuan; Li, Qingguo

    2018-06-01

    The system construction of urban flood control and disaster reduction in China is facing pressure and challenge from new urban water disaster. Under the circumstances that it is difficult to build high standards of flood protection engineering measures in urban areas, it is particularly important to carry out urban flood early warning. In Jinan City, a representative inland area, based on the index system of early warning of flood in Jinan urban area, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate the level of early warning. Based on the cumulative rainfall of 3 hours, the CAflood simulation results based on cellular automaton model of urban flooding were used as evaluation indexes to realize the accuracy and integration of urban flood control early warning.

  9. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Iranata, Data, E-mail: iranata-data@yahoo.com, E-mail: data@ce.its.ac.id; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan

    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limitmore » value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.« less

  10. Improving tsunami warning systems with remote sensing and geographical information system input.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jin-Feng; Li, Lian-Fa

    2008-12-01

    An optimal and integrative tsunami warning system is introduced that takes full advantage of remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) in monitoring, forecasting, detection, loss evaluation, and relief management for tsunamis. Using the primary impact zone in Banda Aceh, Indonesia as the pilot area, we conducted three simulations that showed that while the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami claimed about 300,000 lives because there was no tsunami warning system at all, it is possible that only about 15,000 lives could have been lost if the area had used a tsunami warning system like that currently in use in the Pacific Ocean. The simulations further calculated that the death toll could have been about 3,000 deaths if there had been a disaster system further optimized with full use of remote sensing and GIS, although the number of badly damaged or destroyed houses (29,545) could have likely remained unchanged.

  11. Caltrans fog detection and warning system.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-01-01

    The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) has implemented a fog detection and warning system on Highway 99 near Fresno. The entire central valley region is susceptible to Tule fog, which can reduce visibility tremendously, sometimes to n...

  12. Early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled human–environment systems

    PubMed Central

    Bauch, Chris T.; Sigdel, Ram; Pharaon, Joe; Anand, Madhur

    2016-01-01

    In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human–environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent environment model uncoupled from the human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research. PMID:27815533

  13. Utility of flood warning systems for emergency management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Menoni, Scira

    2010-05-01

    The presentation is focused on a simple and crucial question for warning systems: are flood and hydrological modelling and forecasting helpful to manage flood events? Indeed, it is well known that a warning process can be invalidated by inadequate forecasts so that the accuracy and robustness of the previsional model is a key issue for any flood warning procedure. However, one problem still arises at this perspective: when forecasts can be considered to be adequate? According to Murphy (1993, Wea. Forecasting 8, 281-293), forecasts hold no intrinsic value but they acquire it through their ability to influence the decisions made by their users. Moreover, we can add that forecasts value depends on the particular problem at stake showing, this way, a multifaceted nature. As a result, forecasts verification should not be seen as a universal process, instead it should be tailored to the particular context in which forecasts are implemented. This presentation focuses on warning problems in mountain regions, whereas the short time which is distinctive of flood events makes the provision of adequate forecasts particularly significant. In this context, the quality of a forecast is linked to its capability to reduce the impact of a flood by improving the correctness of the decision about issuing (or not) a warning as well as of the implementation of a proper set of actions aimed at lowering potential flood damages. The present study evaluates the performance of a real flood forecasting system from this perspective. In detail, a back analysis of past flood events and available verification tools have been implemented. The final objective was to evaluate the system ability to support appropriate decisions with respect not only to the flood characteristics but also to the peculiarities of the area at risk as well as to the uncertainty of forecasts. This meant to consider also flood damages and forecasting uncertainty among the decision variables. Last but not least, the

  14. Assessment of a severe-weather warning system and disaster preparedness, Calhoun County, Alabama, 1994.

    PubMed Central

    Liu, S; Quenemoen, L E; Malilay, J; Noji, E; Sinks, T; Mendlein, J

    1996-01-01

    Tornado preparedness warning system effectiveness, and shelter-seeking behavior were examined in two Alabama areas after tornado warnings. In the area without sirens, only 28.9% of 194 respondents heard a tornado warning of these, 73.2% first received the warning from radios or television. In the area with sirens, 88.1% of 193 respondents heard a warning, and 61.8% first received the warning from a siren. Knowledge of warnings, access to shelter, and education were key predictors for seeking shelter. Our findings indicate that installing sirens, providing access to shelter, and teaching appropriate responses to warnings are important elements of an effective disaster prevention system. PMID:8561251

  15. Feasibility study of using satellites for a disaster warning system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1973-01-01

    The development of requirements for the Disaster Warning System (DWS) was investigated in relation to the National Weather Service. Conceptual communication traffic flow patterns for the future of the NWS are studied to determine the impact of the DWS on the MWS. The planned warning systems, and satellite communications are discussed along with data collection, and communication services.

  16. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

    PubMed

    Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

    2017-10-01

    The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

  17. Criteria for evaluating the condition of a tropical cyclone warning system.

    PubMed

    Parker, D

    1999-09-01

    This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.

  18. Truck monitoring and warning systems for freeway-to-freeway connections

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-10-01

    This research focuses on the development and evaluation of a truck monitoring and warning (TM&W) system for detecting high, long, fast trucks at freeway-to-freeway connections and activating displays to warn the truck drivers of potential hazards as ...

  19. Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

    2017-11-01

    In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

  20. Methods for the evaluation of alternative disaster warning systems. Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Agnew, C. E.; Anderson, R. J., Jr.; Lanen, W. N.

    1977-01-01

    Methods for estimating the economic costs and benefits of the transmission-reception and reception-action segments of a disaster warning system (DWS) are described. Methods were identified for the evaluation of the transmission and reception portions of alternative disaster warning systems. Example analyses using the methods identified were performed.

  1. A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

    2007-12-01

    In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to

  2. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  3. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  4. Brake reactions of distracted drivers to pedestrian Forward Collision Warning systems.

    PubMed

    Lubbe, Nils

    2017-06-01

    Forward Collision Warning (FCW) can be effective in directing driver attention towards a conflict and thereby aid in preventing or mitigating collisions. FCW systems aiming at pedestrian protection have been introduced onto the market, yet an assessment of their safety benefits depends on the accurate modeling of driver reactions when the system is activated. This study contributes by quantifying brake reaction time and brake behavior (deceleration levels and jerk) to compare the effectiveness of an audio-visual warning only, an added haptic brake pulse warning, and an added Head-Up Display in reducing the frequency of collisions with pedestrians. Further, this study provides a detailed data set suited for the design of assessment methods for car-to-pedestrian FCW systems. Brake response characteristics were measured for heavily distracted drivers who were subjected to a single FCW event in a high-fidelity driving simulator. The drivers maintained a self-regulated speed of 30km/h in an urban area, with gaze direction diverted from the forward roadway by a secondary task. Collision rates and brake reaction times differed significantly across FCW settings. Brake pulse warnings resulted in the lowest number of collisions and the shortest brake reaction times (mean 0.8s, SD 0.29s). Brake jerk and deceleration were independent of warning type. Ninety percent of drivers exceeded a maximum deceleration of 3.6m/s 2 and a jerk of 5.3m/s 3 . Brake pulse warning was the most effective FCW interface for preventing collisions. In addition, this study presents the data required for driver modeling for car-to-pedestrian FCW similar to Euro NCAP's 2015 car-to-car FCW assessment. Practical applications: Vehicle manufacturers should consider the introduction of brake pulse warnings to their FCW systems. Euro NCAP could introduce an assessment that quantifies the safety benefits of pedestrian FCW systems and thereby aid the proliferation of effective systems. Copyright © 2017

  5. Windshear warning aerospatiale approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bonafe, J. L.

    1988-01-01

    Vugraphs and transcribed remarks of a presentation on Aerospatiale's approach to windshear warning systems are given. Information is given on low altitude wind shear probability, wind shear warning models and warning system false alarms.

  6. Light vehicle forward-looking, rear-end collision warning system performance guidelines

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-05-01

    This document presents performance guidelines for forward-looking, rear-end collision warning systems (abbreviated FCW) for improving vehicular safety by preventing or mitigating vehicular rear-end collisions through driver notification or warning. T...

  7. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  8. False alarms and missed events: the impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems.

    PubMed

    Ripberger, Joseph T; Silva, Carol L; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C; Carlson, Deven E; James, Mark; Herron, Kerry G

    2015-01-01

    Theory and conventional wisdom suggest that errors undermine the credibility of tornado warning systems and thus decrease the probability that individuals will comply (i.e., engage in protective action) when future warnings are issued. Unfortunately, empirical research on the influence of warning system accuracy on public responses to tornado warnings is incomplete and inconclusive. This study adds to existing research by analyzing two sets of relationships. First, we assess the relationship between perceptions of accuracy, credibility, and warning response. Using data collected via a large regional survey, we find that trust in the National Weather Service (NWS; the agency responsible for issuing tornado warnings) increases the likelihood that an individual will opt for protective action when responding to a hypothetical warning. More importantly, we find that subjective perceptions of warning system accuracy are, as theory suggests, systematically related to trust in the NWS and (by extension) stated responses to future warnings. The second half of the study matches survey data against NWS warning and event archives to investigate a critical follow-up question--Why do some people perceive that their warning system is accurate, whereas others perceive that their system is error prone? We find that subjective perceptions are--in part-a function of objective experience, knowledge, and demographic characteristics. When considered in tandem, these findings support the proposition that errors influence perceptions about the accuracy of warning systems, which in turn impact the credibility that people assign to information provided by systems and, ultimately, public decisions about how to respond when warnings are issued. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. 14 CFR 121.360 - Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... person may operate a turbine-powered airplane unless it is equipped with a ground proximity warning... system incorporates a Mode 4 flap warning inhibition control; and (2) An outline of all input sources... turbine-powered airplane unless it is equipped with a ground proximity warning/glide slope deviation...

  10. 14 CFR 121.360 - Ground proximity warning-glide slope deviation alerting system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... person may operate a turbine-powered airplane unless it is equipped with a ground proximity warning... system incorporates a Mode 4 flap warning inhibition control; and (2) An outline of all input sources... turbine-powered airplane unless it is equipped with a ground proximity warning/glide slope deviation...

  11. Is More Better? - Night Vision Enhancement System's Pedestrian Warning Modes and Older Drivers.

    PubMed

    Brown, Timothy; He, Yefei; Roe, Cheryl; Schnell, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Pedestrian fatalities as a result of vehicle collisions are much more likely to happen at night than during day time. Poor visibility due to darkness is believed to be one of the causes for the higher vehicle collision rate at night. Existing studies have shown that night vision enhancement systems (NVES) may improve recognition distance, but may increase drivers' workload. The use of automatic warnings (AW) may help minimize workload, improve performance, and increase safety. In this study, we used a driving simulator to examine performance differences of a NVES with six different configurations of warning cues, including: visual, auditory, tactile, auditory and visual, tactile and visual, and no warning. Older drivers between the ages of 65 and 74 participated in the study. An analysis based on the distance to pedestrian threat at the onset of braking response revealed that tactile and auditory warnings performed the best, while visual warnings performed the worst. When tactile or auditory warnings were presented in combination with visual warning, their effectiveness decreased. This result demonstrated that, contrary to general sense regarding warning systems, multi-modal warnings involving visual cues degraded the effectiveness of NVES for older drivers.

  12. Evaluation of NDOR's actuated advance warning systems.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-12-01

    "Driver behavior within the dilemma zone can be a major safety concern at high-speed signalized intersections. The : Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR) has developed and implemented an actuated advance warning (AAW) dilemma : zone protection system....

  13. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  14. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  15. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  16. The Warning System in Disaster Situations: A Selective Analysis.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    DISASTERS, *WARNING SYSTEMS), CIVIL DEFENSE, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, REACTION(PSYCHOLOGY), FACTOR ANALYSIS, CLASSIFICATION, STATISTICAL DATA, TIME ... MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, DAMAGE, CONTROL SYSTEMS, THREAT EVALUATION, DECISION MAKING, DATA PROCESSING, COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

  17. An Experimental Seismic Data and Parameter Exchange System for Tsunami Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, T. L.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Heinloo, A.; Hoffmann, M.

    2009-12-01

    For several years GFZ Potsdam is operating a global earthquake monitoring system. Since the beginning of 2008, this system is also used as an experimental seismic background data center for two different regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS), the IOTWS (Indian Ocean) and the interim NEAMTWS (NE Atlantic and Mediterranean). The SeisComP3 (SC3) software, developed within the GITEWS (German Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System) project, capable to acquire, archive and process real-time data feeds, was extended for export and import of individual processing results within the two clusters of connected SC3 systems. Therefore not only real-time waveform data are routed to the attached warning centers through GFZ but also processing results. While the current experimental NEAMTWS cluster consists of SC3 systems in six designated national warning centers in Europe, the IOTWS cluster presently includes seven centers, with another three likely to join in 2009/10. For NEAMTWS purposes, the GFZ virtual real-time seismic network (GEOFON Extended Virtual Network -GEVN) in Europe was substantially extended by adding many stations from Western European countries optimizing the station distribution. In parallel to the data collection over the Internet, a GFZ VSAT hub for secured data collection of the EuroMED GEOFON and NEAMTWS backbone network stations became operational and first data links were established through this backbone. For the Southeast Asia region, a VSAT hub has been established in Jakarta already in 2006, with some other partner networks connecting to this backbone via the Internet. Since its establishment, the experimental system has had the opportunity to prove its performance in a number of relevant earthquakes. Reliable solutions derived from a minimum of 25 stations were very promising in terms of speed. For important events, automatic alerts were released and disseminated by emails and SMS. Manually verified solutions are added as soon as they become

  18. A Hole in the Weather Warning System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Vincent T.; Weisman, Robert A.

    2003-02-01

    lack of text information. These problems had forced deaf and hard of hearing people to rely on looking at the sky or having hearing people alert them as their primary methods of receiving emergency information. These problems are documented through the use of a survey of 277 deaf and hard of hearing people in Minnesota and Oklahoma as well as specific examples.During the last two years, some progress has been made to "close this hole" in the weather warning system. The Federal Communications Commission has approved new rules, requiring that all audio emergency information provided by television stations, satellite, and cable operators must also be provided visually. In addition, the use of new technology such as pager systems, weather radios adapted for use by those with special needs, the Internet, and satellite warning systems have allowed deaf and hard of hearing people to have more access to emergency information.In this article, these improvements are documented but continuing problems and possible solutions are also listed.

  19. Enhanced proximity warning system (EPWS) for locomotives

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-10-01

    The primary focus of the Enhanced Proximity Warning System (EPWS) is to provide a cost effective means to improve safety of railroad operations, with the ability to implement on an incremental, building block approach. The main safety objective...

  20. Electric Field Sensor for Lightning Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Premlet, B.; Mohammed, R.; Sabu, S.; Joby, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation.A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

  1. Performance of advance warning systems in a coordinated system : final report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-09-01

    The Advance Warning System (AWS), developed by the Nebraska Department of Roads (NDOR) has proven to be effective at improving traffic safety at isolated signalized intersections. However, the effectiveness of the system has not been analyzed at sign...

  2. Development of a Global Agricultural Hotspot Detection and Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemoine, G.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Csak, G.

    2015-12-01

    The number of web based platforms for crop monitoring has grown rapidly over the last years and anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators can be accessed online thanks to a number of web based portals. However, while these systems make available a large amount of crop monitoring data to the agriculture and food security analysts, there is no global platform which provides agricultural production hotspot warning in a highly automatic and timely manner. Therefore a web based system providing timely warning evidence as maps and short narratives is currently under development by the Joint Research Centre. The system (called "HotSpot Detection System of Agriculture Production Anomalies", HSDS) will focus on water limited agricultural systems worldwide. The automatic analysis of relevant meteorological and vegetation indicators at selected administrative units (Gaul 1 level) will trigger warning messages for the areas where anomalous conditions are observed. The level of warning (ranging from "watch" to "alert") will depend on the nature and number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. Information regarding the extent of the agricultural areas concerned by the anomaly and the progress of the agricultural season will complement the warning label. In addition, we are testing supplementary detailed information from other sources for the areas triggering a warning. These regard the automatic web-based and food security-tailored analysis of media (using the JRC Media Monitor semantic search engine) and the automatic detection of active crop area using Sentinel 1, upcoming Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 imagery processed in Google Earth Engine. The basic processing will be fully automated and updated every 10 days exploiting low resolution rainfall estimates and satellite vegetation indices. Maps, trend graphs and statistics accompanied by short narratives edited by a team of crop monitoring experts, will be made available on the website on a

  3. Does the Computer-Assisted Remedial Mathematics Program at Kearny High School Lead to Improved Scores on the N.J. Early Warning Test?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schalago-Schirm, Cynthia

    Eighth-grade students in New Jersey take the Early Warning Test (EWT), which involves reading, writing, and mathematics. Students with EWT scores below the state level of competency take a remedial mathematics course that provides students with computer-assisted instruction (2 days per week) as well as regular classroom instruction (3 days per…

  4. Multiple Attribute Evaluation of Auditory Warning Signals for In-Vehicle Crash Avoidance Warning Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-11-01

    This research was directed at optimizing the auditory warnings that may be used in future crash avoidance warning applications. There is a need to standardize such warnings, so that they retain immediacy of meaning across various vehicles, situations...

  5. An automatic tsunami warning system: TREMORS application in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reymond, D.; Robert, S.; Thomas, Y.; Schindelé, F.

    1996-03-01

    An integrated system named TREMORS (Tsunami Risk Evaluation through seismic Moment of a Real-time System) has been installed in EVORA station, in Portugal which has been affected by historical tsunamis. The system is based on a three component long period seismic station linked to a compatible IBM_PC with a specific software. The goals of this system are the followings: detect earthquake, locate them, compute their seismic moment, give a seismic warning. The warnings are based on the seismic moment estimation and all the processing are made automatically. The finality of this study is to check the quality of estimation of the main parameters of interest in a goal of tsunami warning: the location which depends of azimuth and distance, and at last the seismic moment, M 0, which controls the earthquake size. The sine qua non condition for obtaining an automatic location is that the 3 main seismic phases P, S, R must be visible. This study gives satisfying results (automatic analysis): ± 5° errors in azimuth and epicentral distance, and a standard deviation of less than a factor 2 for the seismic moment M 0.

  6. Truck monitoring and warning systems for freeway-to-freeway connections : summary

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-10-01

    This project focuses on the development and evaluation of a truck monitoring and warning (TM&W) system for detecting high, long, fast trucks at freeway-to-freeway connections and activating displays to warn the truck drivers of potential hazards as t...

  7. Effectiveness of various safety belt warning systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1976-07-01

    This observation study among rental car customers was conducted at the Sky Harbor Airport, Phoenix, Arizona, during the period August 4 - December 12, 1975. Overall objectives were (1) to determine if the warning system now required on 1975 and 1976 ...

  8. Safety evaluation of intersection conflict warning system.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-06-01

    FHWA organized a pooled fund study of 40 States to evaluate low-cost safety strategies as part of its strategic highway safety effort. One of the strategies selected for evaluation was intersection conflict warning systems (ICWSs). This strategy is i...

  9. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2014-08-29

    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  10. Implementation of Pediatric Early Warning Score; Adherence to Guidelines and Influence of Context.

    PubMed

    Almblad, Ann-Charlotte; Siltberg, Petra; Engvall, Gunn; Målqvist, Mats

    To describe data of Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) registrations and to evaluate the implementation of PEWS by examining adherence to clinical guidelines based on measured PEWS, and to relate findings to work context. PEWS, as a part of a concept called Early Detection and Treatment-Children (EDT-C) was implemented at three wards at a Children's Hospital in Sweden. Data were collected from the Electronic Patient Record (EPR) retrospectively to assess adherence to guidelines. The Alberta Context Tool (ACT) was used to assess work context among healthcare professionals (n=109) before implementation of EDT-C. The majority of PEWS registrations in EPR were low whereas 10% were moderate to high. Adherences to ward-specific guidelines at admission and for saturation in respiratory distress were high whereas adherence to pain assessment was low. There were significant differences in documented recommended actions between wards. Some differences in leadership and evaluation between wards were identified. Evaluation of PEWS implementation indicated frequent use of the tool despite most scores being low. High scores (5-9) occurred 28 times, which may indicate that patients with a high risk of clinical deterioration were identified. Documentation of the consequent recommended actions was however incomplete and there was a large variation in adherence to guidelines. Contextual factors may have an impact on adherence. EDT-C can lead to increased knowledge about early detection of deterioration, strengthen nurses as professionals, optimize treatment and teamwork and thereby increase patient safety for children treated in hospitals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Drunk driving warning system (DDWS). Volume 1, System concept and description

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1983-11-01

    The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test in order to drive the car in a normal manner. The emergency flasher system operat...

  12. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  13. A systematic approach to advanced cockpit warning systems for air transport operations: Line pilot preferences

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, D. H.; Simpson, C. A.

    1976-01-01

    Line pilots (fifty captains, first officers, and flight engineers) from 8 different airlines were administered a structured questionnaire relating to future warning system design and solutions to current warning system problems. This was followed by a semantic differential to obtain a factor analysis of 18 different cockpit warning signals on scales such as informative/distracting, annoying/soothing. Half the pilots received a demonstration of the experimental text and voice synthesizer warning systems before answering the questionnaire and the semantic differential. A control group answered the questionnaire and the semantic differential first, thus providing a check for the stability of pilot preferences with and without actual exposure to experimental systems. Generally, the preference data obtained revealed much consistency and strong agreement among line pilots concerning advance cockpit warning system design.

  14. Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has

  15. Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

    2017-08-01

    China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

  16. Evaluation of Intersection Collision Warning Systems in Minnesota

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-10-01

    The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) is investing significant resources in intersection collision warning systems (ICWS) based on early indications of effectiveness. However, the effectiveness is not well documented, and negative change...

  17. Flood Warning and Forecasting System in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskova, Danica

    2016-04-01

    In 2015, it finished project Flood Warning and Forecasting System (POVAPSYS) as part of the flood protection in Slovakia till 2010. The aim was to build POVAPSYS integrated computerized flood forecasting and warning system. It took a qualitatively higher level of output meteorological and hydrological services in case of floods affecting large territorial units, as well as local flood events. It is further unfolding demands on performance and coordination of meteorological and hydrological services, troubleshooting observation, evaluation of data, fast communication, modeling and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological processes. Integration of all information entering and exiting to and from the project POVAPSYS provides Hydrological Flood Forecasting System (HYPOS). The system provides information on the current hydrometeorological situation and its evolution with the generation of alerts and notifications in case of exceeding predefined thresholds. HYPOS's functioning of the system requires flawless operability in critical situations while minimizing the loss of its key parts. HYPOS is a core part of the project POVAPSYS, it is a comprehensive software solutions based on a modular principle, providing data and processed information including alarms, in real time. In order to achieve full functionality of the system, in proposal, we have put emphasis on reliability, robustness, availability and security.

  18. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems installed in belt haulageways of...

  19. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems installed in belt haulageways of...

  20. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems installed in belt haulageways of...

  1. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems installed in belt haulageways of...

  2. Crash Warning Interface Metrics: Final Report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-08-01

    The Crash Warning Interface Metrics (CWIM) project addressed issues of the driver-vehicle interface (DVI) for Advanced Crash Warning Systems (ACWS). The focus was on identifying the effects of certain warning system features (e.g., warning modality) ...

  3. Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in

  4. Meteotsunamis, destructive tsunami-like waves: from observations and simulations towards a warning system (MESSI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sepic, Jadranka; Vilibic, Ivica

    2016-04-01

    Atmospherically-generated tsunami-like waves, also known as meteotsunamis, pose a severe threat for exposed coastlines. Although not as destructive as ordinary tsunamis, several meters high meteotsunami waves can bring destruction, cause loss of human lives and raise panic. For that reason, MESSI, an integrative meteotsunami research & warning project, has been developed and will be presented herein. The project has a threefold base: (1) research of atmosphere-ocean interaction with focus on (i) source processes in the atmosphere, (ii) energy transfer to the ocean and (iii) along-propagation growth of meteotsunami waves; (2) estimation of meteotsunami occurrence rates in past, present and future climate, and mapping of meteotsunami hazard; (3) construction of a meteotsunami warning system prototype, with the latter being the main objective of the project. Due to a great frequency of meteotsunamis and its complex bathymetry which varies from the shallow shelf in the north towards deep pits in the south, with a number of funnel-shaped bays and harbours substantially amplifying incoming tsunami-like waves, the Adriatic, northernmost of the Mediterranean seas, has been chosen as an ideal area for realization of the MESSI project and implementation of the warning system. This warning system will however be designed to allow for a wider applicability and easy-to-accomplish transfer to other endangered locations. The architecture of the warning system will integrate several components: (1) real-time measurements of key oceanographic and atmospheric parameters, (2) coupled atmospheric-ocean models run in real time (warning) mode, and (3) semi-automatic procedures and protocols for warning of civil protection, local authorities and public. The effectiveness of the warning system will be tested over the historic events.

  5. Application of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as a stratification tool on admission in an Italian acute medical ward: A perspective study.

    PubMed

    Spagnolli, Walter; Rigoni, Marta; Torri, Emanuele; Cozzio, Susanna; Vettorato, Elisa; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2017-03-01

    We aimed to assess the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) as tool for patient risk stratification at admission in an acute Internal Medicine ward and to ensure patient placement in ward areas with the required and most appropriate intensity of care. As secondary objective, we considered NEWS performance in two subgroups of patients: sudden cardiac events (acute coronary syndromes and arrhythmic events), and chronic respiratory insufficiency. We conducted a perspective cohort single centre study on 2,677 unselected patients consecutively admitted from July 2013 to March 2015 in the Internal Medicine ward of the hospital of Trento, Italy. The NEWS was mandatory collected on ward admission. We defined three risk categories for clinical deterioration: low score (NEWS 0-4), medium score (NEWS 5-6), and high score (NEWS≥7). Following adverse outcomes were considered: total and early (<72 hours) in-hospital mortality, urgent transfers to a higher intensity of care. A logistic regression model quantified the association between outcomes and NEWS. For patients with NEWS >4 vs patients with NEWS <4, the risk of early death increased from 12 to 36 times, total mortality from 3.5 to 9, and urgent transfers from 3.5 to 7. In patients with sudden cardiac events, lower scores were significantly associated with higher risk of transfer to a higher intensity of care. In patients affected by chronic hypoxaemia, adverse outcomes occurred less in medium and high score categories of NEWS. National Early Warning Score assessed on ward admission may enable risk stratification of clinical deterioration and can be a good predictor of in-hospital serious adverse outcomes, although sudden cardiac events and chronic hypoxaemia could constitute some limits. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning and Rapid Response System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdik, M. O.; Fahjan, Y.; Ozel, O.; Alcik, H.; Aydin, M.; Gul, M.

    2003-12-01

    As part of the preparations for the future earthquake in Istanbul a Rapid Response and Early Warning system in the metropolitan area is in operation. For the Early Warning system ten strong motion stations were installed as close as possible to the fault zone. Continuous on-line data from these stations via digital radio modem provide early warning for potentially disastrous earthquakes. Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust Early Warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels is implemented. The band-pass filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) are compared with specified threshold levels. When any acceleration or CAV (on any channel) in a given station exceeds specific threshold values it is considered a vote. Whenever we have 2 station votes within selectable time interval, after the first vote, the first alarm is declared. In order to specify the appropriate threshold levels a data set of near field strong ground motions records form Turkey and the world has been analyzed. Correlations among these thresholds in terms of the epicenter distance the magnitude of the earthquake have been studied. The encrypted early warning signals will be communicated to the respective end users by UHF systems through a "service provider" company. The users of the early warning signal will be power and gas companies, nuclear research facilities, critical chemical factories, subway system and several high-rise buildings. Depending on the location of the earthquake (initiation of fault rupture) and the recipient facility the alarm time can be as high as about 8s. For the rapid response system one hundred 18 bit-resolution strong motion accelerometers were placed in quasi-free field locations (basement of small buildings) in the populated areas of the city, within an area of approximately 50x30km, to constitute a network that will enable early

  7. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  8. Performance of Early Warning Systems on Landslides in Central America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    We performed a reconnaissance about Early Warning Systems (EWS) on Landslides (EWSL) in the countries of Central America. The advance of the EWSL began in the 1990-ies and accelerated dramatically after the regional disaster provoked by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. In the last decade, Early Warning Systems were intensely promoted by national and international development programs aimed on disaster prevention. Early Warning on landslides is more complicated than for other geological phenomena. But, we found information on more than 30 EWSL in the region. In practice, for example in planning, implementation and evaluation of development projects, it is often not clearly defined what exactly is an Early Warning System. Only few of the systems can be classified as true EWSL that means 1) being directly and solely aimed at persons living in the well-defined areas of greatest risk and 2) focusing their work on saving lives before the phenomenon impacts. There is little written information about the work of the EWSL after the initial phase. Even, there are no statistics whether they issued warnings, if the warnings were successful, how many people were evacuated, if there were few false alerts, etc.. Actually, we did not find a single report on a successful landslide warning issued by an EWSL. The lack of information is often due to the fact that communitarian EWSL are considered local structures and do not have a clearly defined position in the governmental hierarchy; there is little oversight and no qualified support and long-term support. The EWSL suffer from severe problems as lack of funding on the long term, low technical level, and insufficient support from central institutions. Often the EWSL are implemented by NGÓs with funding from international agencies, but leave the project alone after the initial phase. In many cases, the hope of the local people to get some protection against the landslide hazard is not really fulfilled. There is one case, where an EWSL with a

  9. Intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator in vascular warning syndromes.

    PubMed

    González Hernández, A; Fabre Pi, O; Cabrera Naranjo, F; López Veloso, A C

    2014-01-01

    Vascular warning syndromes constitute a neurological emergency due to their associated high risk of established stroke. At present, there is no strong evidence indicating the best treatment for these patients. The aim of this paper is to describe the function of intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis in the treatment of vascular warning syndromes. We reviewed our hospital records and the literature to find patients with neurologically fluctuating profiles and who underwent intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis. We retrieved 3 cases from our hospital records and 19 from the literature (15 males and 7 females). Mean age was 68.7±9 years (range: 52-84 years). The mean number of episodes before treatment was 4 (range: 2-15 episodes). The maximum NIHSS scores ranged from 6 to 22 in different patients. We obtained 24-hour post-treatment NIHSS scores in 8 cases; of these cases, 6 (75%) had a score of 0, and the other 2 (25%) had a score of 12. The Modified Rankin Score calculated at 3 months of treatment was 0 or 1 in 18 patients (81.8%); these 18 comprised 8 of the 10 patients with lacunar warning syndromes (80%), 6 of the 7 with basilar warning syndromes (85.7%), and 4 of the 5 with fluctuating non-lacunar, non-basilar warning syndromes (80%). Intravenous rt-PA treatment may constitute an effective and safe therapeutic alternative for patients with neurovascular fluctuations. However, well-designed studies are needed to determine the role of intravenous rt-PA thrombolysis in cases of vascular warning syndrome. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. 14 CFR 25.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... requirements of § 25.671), speed brakes, or longitudinal trim devices are in a position that would not allow a... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 25.703 Section 25.703 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT...

  11. 14 CFR 25.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... requirements of § 25.671), speed brakes, or longitudinal trim devices are in a position that would not allow a... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 25.703 Section 25.703 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT...

  12. 14 CFR 25.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... requirements of § 25.671), speed brakes, or longitudinal trim devices are in a position that would not allow a... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 25.703 Section 25.703 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT...

  13. 14 CFR 25.703 - Takeoff warning system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... requirements of § 25.671), speed brakes, or longitudinal trim devices are in a position that would not allow a... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Takeoff warning system. 25.703 Section 25.703 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT...

  14. Capturing early signs of deterioration: the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score and its value in the Rapid Response System.

    PubMed

    Douw, Gooske; Huisman-de Waal, Getty; van Zanten, Arthur R H; van der Hoeven, Johannes G; Schoonhoven, Lisette

    2017-09-01

    To determine the predictive value of individual and combined dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators at various Early Warning Score levels, differentiating between Early Warning Scores reaching the trigger threshold to call a rapid response team and Early Warning Score levels not reaching this point. Dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score comprises nine indicators underlying nurses' 'worry' about a patient's condition. All indicators independently show significant association with unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality. Prediction of this outcome improved by adding the dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators to an Early Warning Score based on vital signs. An observational cohort study was conducted on three surgical wards in a tertiary university-affiliated teaching hospital. Included were surgical, native-speaking, adult patients. Nurses scored presence of 'worry' and/or dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators every shift or when worried. Vital signs were measured according to the prevailing protocol. Unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admission or unexpected mortality was the composite endpoint. Percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators were calculated at various Early Warning Score levels in control and event groups. Entering all dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators in a multiple logistic regression analysis, we calculated a weighted score and calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value and negative predicted value for each possible total score. In 3522 patients, 102 (2·9%) had an unplanned intensive care/high dependency unit admissions (n = 97) or unexpected mortality (n = 5). Patients with such events and only slightly changed vital signs had significantly higher percentages of 'worry' and dutch-early-nurse-worry-indicator-score indicators expressed than patients in the control group. Increasing number

  15. Reliability Analysis of a Glacier Lake Warning System Using a Bayesian Net

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sturny, Rouven A.; Bründl, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Beside structural mitigation measures like avalanche defense structures, dams and galleries, warning and alarm systems have become important measures for dealing with Alpine natural hazards. Integrating them into risk mitigation strategies and comparing their effectiveness with structural measures requires quantification of the reliability of these systems. However, little is known about how reliability of warning systems can be quantified and which methods are suitable for comparing their contribution to risk reduction with that of structural mitigation measures. We present a reliability analysis of a warning system located in Grindelwald, Switzerland. The warning system was built for warning and protecting residents and tourists from glacier outburst floods as consequence of a rapid drain of the glacier lake. We have set up a Bayesian Net (BN, BPN) that allowed for a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis. The Conditional Probability Tables (CPT) of the BN were determined according to manufacturer's reliability data for each component of the system as well as by assigning weights for specific BN nodes accounting for information flows and decision-making processes of the local safety service. The presented results focus on the two alerting units 'visual acoustic signal' (VAS) and 'alerting of the intervention entities' (AIE). For the summer of 2009, the reliability was determined to be 94 % for the VAS and 83 % for the AEI. The probability of occurrence of a major event was calculated as 0.55 % per day resulting in an overall reliability of 99.967 % for the VAS and 99.906 % for the AEI. We concluded that a failure of the VAS alerting unit would be the consequence of a simultaneous failure of the four probes located in the lake and the gorge. Similarly, we deduced that the AEI would fail either if there were a simultaneous connectivity loss of the mobile and fixed network in Grindelwald, an Internet access loss or a failure of the regional operations

  16. An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Bing-Ru; Hsiao, Nai-Chi; Lin, Pei-Yang; Hsu, Ting-Yu; Chen, Chiou-Yun; Huang, Shieh-Kung; Chiang, Hung-Wei

    2017-01-01

    An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.

  17. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  18. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  19. Evaluation of Prototype Automatic Truck Rollover Warning Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-01-01

    Three operating prototype Automatic Truck Rollover Warning Systems (ATRWS) installed on the Capital Beltway in Maryland and Virginia were evaluated for 3 years. The general objectives of this evaluation were to assess how the ATRWS performed and to d...

  20. Dynamic Vibrotactile Signals for Forward Collision Avoidance Warning Systems

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Fanxing; Gray, Rob; Ho, Cristy; Ahtamad, Mujthaba

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Four experiments were conducted in order to assess the effectiveness of dynamic vibrotactile collision-warning signals in potentially enhancing safe driving. Background: Auditory neuroscience research has demonstrated that auditory signals that move toward a person are more salient than those that move away. If this looming effect were found to extend to the tactile modality, then it could be utilized in the context of in-car warning signal design. Method: The effectiveness of various vibrotactile warning signals was assessed using a simulated car-following task. The vibrotactile warning signals consisted of dynamic toward-/away-from-torso cues (Experiment 1), dynamic versus static vibrotactile cues (Experiment 2), looming-intensity- and constant-intensity-toward-torso cues (Experiment 3), and static cues presented on the hands or on the waist, having either a low or high vibration intensity (Experiment 4). Results: Braking reaction times (BRTs) were significantly faster for toward-torso as compared to away-from-torso cues (Experiments 1 and 2) and static cues (Experiment 2). This difference could not have been attributed to differential responses to signals delivered to different body parts (i.e., the waist vs. hands; Experiment 4). Embedding a looming-intensity signal into the toward-torso signal did not result in any additional BRT benefits (Experiment 3). Conclusion: Dynamic vibrotactile cues that feel as though they are approaching the torso can be used to communicate information concerning external events, resulting in a significantly faster reaction time to potential collisions. Application: Dynamic vibrotactile warning signals that move toward the body offer great potential for the design of future in-car collision-warning system. PMID:25850161

  1. Community-based early warning systems for flood risk mitigation in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Paul J.; Brown, Sarah; Dugar, Sumit

    2017-03-01

    This paper focuses on the use of community-based early warning systems for flood resilience in Nepal. The first part of the work outlines the evolution and current status of these community-based systems, highlighting the limited lead times currently available for early warning. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of a robust operational flood forecasting methodology for use by the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) to enhance early warning lead times. The methodology uses data-based physically interpretable time series models and data assimilation to generate probabilistic forecasts, which are presented in a simple visual tool. The approach is designed to work in situations of limited data availability with an emphasis on sustainability and appropriate technology. The successful application of the forecast methodology to the flood-prone Karnali River basin in western Nepal is outlined, increasing lead times from 2-3 to 7-8 h. The challenges faced in communicating probabilistic forecasts to the last mile of the existing community-based early warning systems across Nepal is discussed. The paper concludes with an assessment of the applicability of this approach in basins and countries beyond Karnali and Nepal and an overview of key lessons learnt from this initiative.

  2. Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) RPC Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.; Hall, Callie

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews the background, objectives, methodology, validation, and present status of the Coral Reef Early Warning System (CREWS) Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) experiment. The potential NASA contribution to CREWS Decision Support Tool (DST) centers on remotely sensed imagery products.

  3. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  4. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  5. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  6. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  7. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  8. 30 CFR 75.1103-8 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-8 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; examination and test requirements. (a) Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems shall be examined at...

  9. Early Warning Systems: Re-Engaging Chronic Truants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chorneau, Tom

    2012-01-01

    School attendance can be an early indicator that something is going wrong with a student. Gathering, analyzing, and acting on attendance information is a first step toward school improvement. Meanwhile, the majority of the states are moving to build and enhance what are called "early warning systems," intended to flag at-risk students during their…

  10. AN/ALQ-135 tail warning system follow-on operational test and evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, V. M.

    1981-11-01

    This is a study of the reliability and maintainability of the tail warning system (TWS) AN/ALQ-153. This TWS is a solid state pulsed Doppler radar designed to provide warning and initiate countermeasures against threats attacking from the tail of B-52G/H aircraft.

  11. Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

    2017-11-01

    Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

  12. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  13. Early warning signals for critical transitions in a thermoacoustic system

    PubMed Central

    Gopalakrishnan, E. A.; Sharma, Yogita; John, Tony; Dutta, Partha Sharathi; Sujith, R. I.

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical systems can undergo critical transitions where the system suddenly shifts from one stable state to another at a critical threshold called the tipping point. The decrease in recovery rate to equilibrium (critical slowing down) as the system approaches the tipping point can be used to identify the proximity to a critical transition. Several measures have been adopted to provide early indications of critical transitions that happen in a variety of complex systems. In this study, we use early warning indicators to predict subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurring in a thermoacoustic system by analyzing the observables from experiments and from a theoretical model. We find that the early warning measures perform as robust indicators in the presence and absence of external noise. Thus, we illustrate the applicability of these indicators in an engineering system depicting critical transitions. PMID:27767065

  14. Multiple Attribute Evaluation Of Auditory Warning Signals For In-Vehicle Crash Avoidance Warning Systems, Technical Report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1995-11-01

    THIS RESEARCH WAS DIRECTED AT OPTIMIZING THE AUDITORY WARNINGS THAT MAY BE USED IN FUTURE CRASH AVOIDANCE WARNING APPLICATIONS. THERE IS A NEED TO STANDARDIZE SUCH WARNINGS, SO THAT THEY RETAIN IMMEDIACY OF MEANING ACROSS VARIOUS VEHICLES, SITUATIONS...

  15. Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.

    Treesearch

    Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan

    2004-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

  16. Security warning system monitors up to fifteen remote areas simultaneously

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fusco, R. C.

    1966-01-01

    Security warning system consisting of 15 television cameras is capable of monitoring several remote or unoccupied areas simultaneously. The system uses a commutator and decommutator, allowing time-multiplexed video transmission. This security system could be used in industrial and retail establishments.

  17. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schöne, T.; Pandoe, W.; Mudita, I.; Roemer, S.; Illigner, J.; Zech, C.; Galas, R.

    2011-03-01

    On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements. The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) (Rudloff et al., 2009) combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP) measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information. The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  18. An archival analysis of stall warning system effectiveness during airborne icing encounters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maris, John Michael

    An archival study was conducted to determine the influence of stall warning system performance on aircrew decision-making outcomes during airborne icing encounters. A Conservative Icing Response Bias (CIRB) model was developed to explain the historical variability in aircrew performance in the face of airframe icing. The model combined Bayes' Theorem with Signal Detection Theory (SDT) concepts to yield testable predictions that were evaluated using a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) multivariate technique applied to two archives: the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident database, and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident databases, both covering the period January 1, 1988 to October 2, 2015. The CIRB model predicted that aircrew would experience more incorrect response outcomes in the face of missed stall warnings than with stall warning False Alarms. These predicted outcomes were observed at high significance levels in the final sample of 132 NASA/NTSB cases. The CIRB model had high sensitivity and specificity, and explained 71.5% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance of aircrew decision-making outcomes during the icing encounters. The reliability and validity metrics derived from this study suggest indicate that the findings are generalizable to the population of U.S. registered turbine-powered aircraft. These findings suggest that icing-related stall events could be reduced if the incidence of stall warning Misses could be minimized. Observed stall warning Misses stemmed from three principal causes: aerodynamic icing effects, which reduced the stall angle-of-attack (AoA) to below the stall warning calibration threshold; tail stalls, which are not monitored by contemporary protection systems; and icing-induced system issues (such as frozen pitot tubes), which compromised stall warning system effectiveness and airframe envelope protections. Each of these sources of missed stall warnings could be addressed by Aerodynamic Performance

  19. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  20. Aggregate National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values are more important than high scores for a single vital signs parameter for discriminating the risk of adverse outcomes.

    PubMed

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-02-01

    The Royal College of Physicians (RCPL) National Early Warning Score (NEWS) escalates care to a doctor at NEWS values of ≥5 and when the score for any single vital sign is 3. We calculated the 24-h risk of serious clinical outcomes for vital signs observation sets with NEWS values of 3, 4 and 5, separately determining risks when the score did/did not include a single score of 3. We compared workloads generated by the RCPL's escalation protocol and for aggregate NEWS value alone. Aggregate NEWS values of 3 or 4 (n=142,282) formed 15.1% of all vital signs sets measured; those containing a single vital sign scoring 3 (n=36,207) constituted 3.8% of all sets. Aggregate NEWS values of either 3 or 4 with a component score of 3 have significantly lower risks (OR: 0.26 and 0.53) than an aggregate value of 5 (OR: 1.0). Escalating care to a doctor when any single component of NEWS scores 3 compared to when aggregate NEWS values ≥5, would have increased doctors' workload by 40% with only a small increase in detected adverse outcomes from 2.99 to 3.08 per day (a 3% improvement in detection). The recommended NEWS escalation protocol produces additional work for the bedside nurse and responding doctor, disproportionate to a modest benefit in increased detection of adverse outcomes. It may have significant ramifications for efficient staff resource allocation, distort patient safety focus and risk alarm fatigue. Our findings suggest that the RCPL escalation guidance warrants review. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Implementation of a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LaBrecque, John

    2016-04-01

    The Global Geodetic Observing System has issued a Call for Participation to research scientists, geodetic research groups and national agencies in support of the implementation of the IUGG recommendation for a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Augmentation to Tsunami Early Warning Systems. The call seeks to establish a working group to be a catalyst and motivating force for the definition of requirements, identification of resources, and for the encouragement of international cooperation in the establishment, advancement, and utilization of GNSS for Tsunami Early Warning. During the past fifteen years the populations of the Indo-Pacific region experienced a series of mega-thrust earthquakes followed by devastating tsunamis that claimed nearly 300,000 lives. The future resiliency of the region will depend upon improvements to infrastructure and emergency response that will require very significant investments from the Indo-Pacific economies. The estimation of earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation are critical to rapid tsunami warning. Geodetic research groups have demonstrated the use of GNSS data to estimate earthquake moment magnitude, source mechanism and the distribution of crustal deformation sufficient for the accurate and timely prediction of tsunamis generated by mega-thrust earthquakes. GNSS data have also been used to measure the formation and propagation of tsunamis via ionospheric disturbances acoustically coupled to the propagating surface waves; thereby providing a new technique to track tsunami propagation across ocean basins, opening the way for improving tsunami propagation models, and providing accurate warning to communities in the far field. These two new advancements can deliver timely and accurate tsunami warnings to coastal communities in the near and far field of mega-thrust earthquakes. This presentation will present the justification for and the details of the GGOS Call for

  2. Disaster warning system: Satellite feasibility and comparison with terrestrial systems. Volume 1: Executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spoor, J. H.; Hodge, W. H.; Fluk, M. J.; Bamford, T. F.

    1974-01-01

    The Disaster Warning System (DWS) is a conceptual system which will provide the National Weather Service (NWS) with communication services in the 1980s to help minimize losses caused by natural disasters. The object of this study is a comparative analysis between a terrestrial DWS and a satellite DWS. Baseline systems satisfying the NOAA requirements were synthesized in sufficient detail so that a comparison could be made in terms of performance and cost. The cost of both baseline systems is dominated by the disaster warning and spotter reporting functions. An effort was undertaken to reduce system cost through lower-capacity alternative systems generated by modifying the baseline systems. By reducing the number of required channels and modifying the spotter reporting techniques, alternative satellite systems were synthesized. A terrestrial alternative with the coverage reduced to an estimated 95 percent of the population was considered.

  3. Study on warning radius of diffuse reflection laser warning based on fish-eye lens

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Bolin; Zhang, Weian

    2013-09-01

    The diffuse reflection type of omni-directional laser warning based on fish-eye lens is becoming more and more important. As one of the key parameters of warning system, the warning radius should be put into investigation emphatically. The paper firstly theoretically analyzes the energy detected by single pixel of FPA detector in the system under complicated environment. Then the least energy detectable by each single pixel of the system is computed in terms of detector sensitivity, system noise, and minimum SNR. Subsequently, by comparison between the energy detected by single pixel and the least detectable energy, the warning radius is deduced from Torrance-Sparrow five-parameter semiempirical statistic model. Finally, a field experiment was developed to validate the computational results. It has been found that the warning radius has a close relationship with BRDF parameters of the irradiated target, propagation distance, angle of incidence, and detector sensitivity, etc. Furthermore, an important fact is shown that the experimental values of warning radius are always less than that of theoretical ones, due to such factors as the optical aberration of fish-eye lens, the transmissivity of narrowband filter, and the packing ratio of detector.

  4. Human factors research problems in electronic voice warning system design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, C. A.; Williams, D. H.

    1975-01-01

    The speech messages issued by voice warning systems must be carefully designed in accordance with general principles of human decision making processes, human speech comprehension, and the conditions in which the warnings can occur. The operator's effectiveness must not be degraded by messages that are either inappropriate or difficult to comprehend. Important experimental variables include message content, linguistic redundancy, signal/noise ratio, interference with concurrent tasks, and listener expectations generated by the pragmatic or real world context in which the messages are presented.

  5. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  6. Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.

    PubMed

    Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S

    2015-09-04

    The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of

  7. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1101-10 Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. Each water sprinkler...

  8. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1101-10 Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. Each water sprinkler...

  9. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1101-10 Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. Each water sprinkler...

  10. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1101-10 Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. Each water sprinkler...

  11. 30 CFR 75.1101-10 - Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices..., DEPARTMENT OF LABOR COAL MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1101-10 Water sprinkler systems; fire warning devices at belt drives. Each water sprinkler...

  12. 30 CFR 75.1103-4 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-4 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements. (a) Effective December 31, 2009, automatic fire sensor and warning device...

  13. 30 CFR 75.1103-4 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-4 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; installation; minimum requirements. (a) Effective December 31, 2009, automatic fire sensor and warning device...

  14. Some human factors issues in the development and evaluation of cockpit alerting and warning systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Randle, R. J., Jr.; Larsen, W. E.; Williams, D. H.

    1980-01-01

    A set of general guidelines for evaluating a newly developed cockpit alerting and warning system in terms of human factors issues are provided. Although the discussion centers around a general methodology, it is made specifically to the issues involved in alerting systems. An overall statement of the current operational problem is presented. Human factors problems with reference to existing alerting and warning systems are described. The methodology for proceeding through system development to system test is discussed. The differences between traditional human factors laboratory evaluations and those required for evaluation of complex man-machine systems under development are emphasized. Performance evaluation in the alerting and warning subsystem using a hypothetical sample system is explained.

  15. Laser development for optimal helicopter obstacle warning system LADAR performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaniv, A.; Krupkin, V.; Abitbol, A.; Stern, J.; Lurie, E.; German, A.; Solomonovich, S.; Lubashitz, B.; Harel, Y.; Engart, S.; Shimoni, Y.; Hezy, S.; Biltz, S.; Kaminetsky, E.; Goldberg, A.; Chocron, J.; Zuntz, N.; Zajdman, A.

    2005-04-01

    Low lying obstacles present immediate danger to both military and civilian helicopters performing low-altitude flight missions. A LADAR obstacle detection system is the natural solution for enhancing helicopter safety and improving the pilot situation awareness. Elop is currently developing an advanced Surveillance and Warning Obstacle Ranging and Display (SWORD) system for the Israeli Air Force. Several key factors and new concepts have contributed to system optimization. These include an adaptive FOV, data memorization, autonomous obstacle detection and warning algorithms and the use of an agile laser transmitter. In the present work we describe the laser design and performance and discuss some of the experimental results. Our eye-safe laser is characterized by its pulse energy, repetition rate and pulse length agility. By dynamically controlling these parameters, we are able to locally optimize the system"s obstacle detection range and scan density in accordance with the helicopter instantaneous maneuver.

  16. Effectiveness of a Forward Collision Warning System in simple and in dual task from an electrophysiological perspective.

    PubMed

    Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra; Francois, Mathilde; Ndiaye, Daniel; Deleurence, Philippe; Fabrigoule, Colette

    2013-04-29

    Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) are expected to assist drivers; however, it is not completely clear whether these systems are of benefit to distracted drivers as much as they are to undistracted drivers. This study aims at investigating further the analysis of the effectiveness of a surrogate FCWS according to the attentional state of participants. In this experiment electrophysiological and behavioural data were recording while participants were required to drive in a simple car simulator and to react to the braking of the lead vehicle which could be announced by a warning system. The effectiveness of this warning system was evaluated when drivers were distracted or not by a secondary cognitive task. In a previous study, the warning signal was not completely effective likely due to the presence of another predictor of the forthcoming braking which competes with the warning. By eliminating this secondary predictor in the present study, the results confirmed the negative effect of the secondary task and revealed the expected effectiveness of the warning system at behavioural and electrophysiological levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of a GNSS-Enhanced Tsunami Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bawden, G. W.; Melbourne, T. I.; Bock, Y.; Song, Y. T.; Komjathy, A.

    2015-12-01

    The past decade has witnessed a terrible loss of life and economic disruption caused by large earthquakes and resultant tsunamis impacting coastal communities and infrastructure across the Indo-Pacific region. NASA has funded the early development of a prototype real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (RT-GNSS) based rapid earthquake and tsunami early warning (GNSS-TEW) system that may be used to enhance seismic tsunami early warning systems for large earthquakes. This prototype GNSS-TEW system geodetically estimates fault parameters (earthquake magnitude, location, strike, dip, and slip magnitude/direction on a gridded fault plane both along strike and at depth) and tsunami source parameters (seafloor displacement, tsunami energy scale, and 3D tsunami initials) within minutes after the mainshock based on dynamic numerical inversions/regressions of the real-time measured displacements within a spatially distributed real-time GNSS network(s) spanning the epicentral region. It is also possible to measure fluctuations in the ionosphere's total electron content (TEC) in the RT-GNSS data caused by the pressure wave from the tsunami. This TEC approach can detect if a tsunami has been triggered by an earthquake, track its waves as they propagate through the oceanic basins, and provide upwards of 45 minutes early warning. These combined real-time geodetic approaches will very quickly address a number of important questions in the immediate minutes following a major earthquake: How big was the earthquake and what are its fault parameters? Could the earthquake have produced a tsunami and was a tsunami generated?

  18. An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

    2012-04-01

    The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

  19. In-vehicle crash avoidance warning systems : human factors considerations

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1997-02-01

    This document represents the final report of the work performed under contract DTNH22-91 C-07004, In-Vehicle Crash Avoidance Warning Systems: Human Factors Considerations. This project was performed to develop guidelines for the interface desig...

  20. Improving recognition of patients at risk in a Portuguese general hospital: results from a preliminary study on the early warning score.

    PubMed

    Correia, Nuno; Rodrigues, Rui Paulo; Sá, Márcia Carvalho; Dias, Paula; Lopes, Luís; Paiva, Artur

    2014-01-01

    Early warning score (EWS) is a system that assists in the timely recognition of hospitalized patients outside critical care areas with potential or established critical illness at risk of deteriorating and who may be receiving suboptimal care. No such systems have been implemented in Portuguese National Health Service's wards. We performed a preliminary study to assess the potential outcome of applying the EWS in our hospital setting. An observational retrospective study was conducted based on 100 patients assessed by the outreach team due to an acute event. The EWS was calculated a posteriori on three preceding periods from the acute deterioration (-12, -24, and -72 h). In 35 patients, there was insufficient recording of vital signs. The final sample of 65 patients includes 62.0% men, and the mean age (±SD) was 67 ± 16 years old. Respiratory problems were the main cause of deterioration (44.6%). The EWS score increased from -72 to -12 h. More than half of cases (63.0%) were admitted into high care units, and their mean (±SD) score was higher in comparison to those remaining in general wards (Intermediate Care Units 3.75 ± 1.9, Intensive Care Units 4.2 ± 1.5, wards 3.5 ± 1.4). Score at -24 and -12 h seemed to predict length of stay (LoS; p < 0.05) and mortality, respectively. The EWS would have incremented early medical attention by 40.0% if a threshold of ≥3 was used. EWS systems are not widely used in Portuguese health service. Our data suggests that the EWS would allow early recognition for a higher number of patients in comparison to current ward care. Clinical worsening, lengths of stay, admission into high care units, and mortality may be predicted by the EWS. Prospective studies with multivariable analysis are needed to clarify the global outcome of the EWS implementation in national wards.

  1. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

    2017-12-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  2. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2017-12-01

    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  3. High performance dash on warning air mobile, missile system. [intercontinental ballistic missiles - systems analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levin, A. D.; Castellano, C. R.; Hague, D. S.

    1975-01-01

    An aircraft-missile system which performs a high acceleration takeoff followed by a supersonic dash to a 'safe' distance from the launch site is presented. Topics considered are: (1) technological feasibility to the dash on warning concept; (2) aircraft and boost trajectory requirements; and (3) partial cost estimates for a fleet of aircraft which provide 200 missiles on airborne alert. Various aircraft boost propulsion systems were studied such as an unstaged cryogenic rocket, an unstaged storable liquid, and a solid rocket staged system. Various wing planforms were also studied. Vehicle gross weights are given. The results indicate that the dash on warning concept will meet expected performance criteria, and can be implemented using existing technology, such as all-aluminum aircraft and existing high-bypass-ratio turbofan engines.

  4. Smart Roadside System for Driver Assistance and Safety Warnings: Framework and Applications

    PubMed Central

    Jang, Jeong Ah; Kim, Hyun Suk; Cho, Han Byeog

    2011-01-01

    The use of newly emerging sensor technologies in traditional roadway systems can provide real-time traffic services to drivers through Telematics and Intelligent Transport Systems (ITSs). This paper introduces a smart roadside system that utilizes various sensors for driver assistance and traffic safety warnings. This paper shows two road application models for a smart roadside system and sensors: a red-light violation warning system for signalized intersections, and a speed advisory system for highways. Evaluation results for the two services are then shown using a micro-simulation method. In the given real-time applications for drivers, the framework and certain algorithms produce a very efficient solution with respect to the roadway type features and sensor type use. PMID:22164025

  5. A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

    Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

  6. Security warning method and system for worker safety during live-line working

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Chilong; Zou, Dehua; Long, Chenhai; Yang, Miao; Zhang, Zhanlong; Mei, Daojun

    2017-09-01

    Live-line working is an essential part in the operations in an electric power system. Live-line workers are required to wear shielding clothing. Shielding clothing, however, acts as a closed environment for the human body. Working in a closed environment for a long time can change the physiological responses of the body and even endanger personal safety. According to the typical conditions of live-line working, this study synthesizes environmental factors related to shielding clothing and the physiological factors of the body to establish the heart rate variability index RMSSD and the comprehensive security warning index SWI. On the basis of both indices, this paper proposes a security warning method and system for the safety live-line workers. The system can monitor the real-time status of workers during live-line working to provide security warning and facilitate the effective safety supervision by the live operation center during actual live-line working.

  7. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 12 months and when the warning system is modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning...

  8. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 12 months and when the warning system is modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning...

  9. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 12 months and when the warning system is modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259... EMERGENCY NOTIFICATION SYSTEMS Maintenance, Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning...

  10. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    PubMed

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  11. Systems simulation for an airport trailing vortex warning system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jeffreys, H. B.

    1972-01-01

    The approach, development, and limited system studies associated with a system simulation for an Airport Trailing Vortex Warning System are documented. The usefulness is shown of a systems engineering approach to the problem of developing a system, as dictated by aircraft vortices, which will increase air-traffic flow in the takeoff/landing corridors of busy airports while maintaining the required safety factor for each operation. The simulation program has been developed in a modular form which permits new, more sophisticated component models, when they become available and are required, to be incorporated into the program with a minimum of program modifications. This report documents a limited system study that has been performed using this Total System Simulation Model. The resulting preliminary system requirements, conclusions, and recommendations are given.

  12. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  13. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  14. Observed activation status of lane departure warning and forward collision warning of Honda vehicles at dealership service centers.

    PubMed

    Reagan, Ian J; McCartt, Anne T

    2016-11-16

    There are little objective data on whether drivers with lane departure warning and forward collision warning systems actually use them, but self-report data indicate that lane departure warning may be used less and viewed less favorably than forward collision warning. The current study assessed whether the systems were turned on when drivers brought their vehicles to dealership service stations and whether the observational protocol is a feasible method for collecting similar data on various manufacturers' systems. Observations of 2013-2015 Honda Accords, 2014-2015 Odysseys, and 2015 CR-Vs occurred at 2 U.S. Honda dealerships for approximately 4 weeks during Summer 2015. Of the 265 vehicles observed to have the 2 systems, 87 (32.8%) had lane departure warning turned on. Accords were associated with a 66% increase in the likelihood that lane departure warning was turned on compared with Odysseys, but the rate was still only about 40% in Accords. In contrast, forward collision warning was turned on in all but one of the observed vehicles. Observations found that the activation rate was much higher for forward collision warning than lane departure warning. The observation method worked well and appears feasible for extending to other manufacturers.

  15. Comparing Alcohol Marketing and Alcohol Warning Message Policies Across Canada.

    PubMed

    Wettlaufer, Ashley; Cukier, Samantha N; Giesbrecht, Norman

    2017-08-24

    In order to reduce harms from alcohol, evidence-based policies are to be introduced and sustained. To facilitate the dissemination of policies that reduce alcohol-related harms by documenting, comparing, and sharing information on effective alcohol polices related to restrictions on alcohol marketing and alcohol warning messaging in 10 Canadian provinces. Team members developed measurable indicators to assess policies on (a) restrictions on alcohol marketing, and (b) alcohol warning messaging. Indicators were peer-reviewed by three alcohol policy experts, refined, and data were collected, submitted for validation by provincial experts, and scored independently by two team members. The national average score was 52% for restrictions on marketing policies and 18% for alcohol warning message policies. Most provinces had marketing regulations that went beyond the federal guidelines with penalties for violating marketing regulations. The provincial liquor boards' web pages focused on product promotion, and there were few restrictions on sponsorship activities. No province has implemented alcohol warning labels, and Ontario was the sole province to have legislated warning signs at all points-of-sale. Most provinces provided a variety of warning signs to be displayed voluntarily at points-of-sale; however, the quality of messages varied. Conclusions/Importance: There is extensive alcohol marketing with comparatively few messages focused on the potential harms associated with alcohol. It is recommended that governments collaborate with multiple stakeholders to maximize the preventive impact of restrictions on alcohol marketing and advertising, and a broader implementation of alcohol warning messages.

  16. Development and Use of Early Warning Systems. SLDS Spotlight

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtin, Jenny; Hurwitch, Bill; Olson, Tom

    2012-01-01

    An early warning system is a data-based tool that helps predict which students are on the right path towards eventual graduation or other grade-appropriate goals. Through such systems, stakeholders at the school and district levels can view data from a wide range of perspectives and gain a deeper understanding of student data. This "Statewide…

  17. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic devices that accurately determine actual warning... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be...

  18. 49 CFR 234.259 - Warning time.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... modified because of a change in train speeds. Electronic devices that accurately determine actual warning... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Warning time. 234.259 Section 234.259..., Inspection, and Testing Inspections and Tests § 234.259 Warning time. Each crossing warning system shall be...

  19. A single-centre cohort study of National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and near patient testing in acute medical admissions.

    PubMed

    Abbott, Tom E F; Torrance, Hew D T; Cron, Nicholas; Vaid, Nidhi; Emmanuel, Julian

    2016-11-01

    The utility of an early warning score may be improved when used with near patient testing. However, this has not yet been investigated for National Early Warning Score (NEWS). We hypothesised that the combination of NEWS and blood gas variables (lactate, glucose or base-excess) was more strongly associated with clinical outcome compared to NEWS alone. This was a prospective cohort study of adult medical admissions to a single-centre over 20days. Blood gas results and physiological observations were recorded at admission. NEWS was calculated retrospectively and combined with the biomarkers in multivariable logistic regression models. The primary outcome was a composite of mortality or critical care escalation within 2days of hospital admission. The secondary outcome was hospital length of stay. After accounting for missing data, 15 patients out of 322 (4.7%) died or were escalated to the critical care unit. The median length of stay was 4 (IQR 7) days. When combined with lactate or base excess, NEWS was associated with the primary outcome (OR 1.18, p=0.01 and OR 1.13, p=0.03). However, NEWS alone was more strongly associated with the primary outcome measure (OR 1.46, p<0.01). The combination of NEWS with glucose was not associated with the primary outcome. Neither NEWS nor any combination of NEWS and a biomarker were associated with hospital length of stay. Admission NEWS is more strongly associated with death or critical care unit admission within 2days of hospital admission, compared to combinations of NEWS and blood-gas derived biomarkers. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. An intelligent IoT emergency vehicle warning system using RFID and Wi-Fi technologies for emergency medical services.

    PubMed

    Lai, Yeong-Lin; Chou, Yung-Hua; Chang, Li-Chih

    2018-01-01

    Collisions between emergency vehicles for emergency medical services (EMS) and public road users have been a serious problem, impacting on the safety of road users, emergency medical technicians (EMTs), and the patients on board. The aim of this study is to develop a novel intelligent emergency vehicle warning system for EMS applications. The intelligent emergency vehicle warning system is developed by Internet of Things (IoT), radio-frequency identification (RFID), and Wi-Fi technologies. The system consists of three major parts: a system trigger tag, an RFID system in an emergency vehicle, and an RFID system at an intersection. The RFID system either in an emergency vehicle or at an intersection contains a controller, an ultrahigh-frequency (UHF) RFID reader module, a Wi-Fi module, and a 2.4-GHz antenna. In addition, a UHF ID antenna is especially designed for the RFID system in an emergency vehicle. The IoT system provides real-time visual warning at an intersection and siren warning from an emergency vehicle in order to effectively inform road users about an emergency vehicle approaching. The developed intelligent IoT emergency vehicle warning system demonstrates the capabilities of real-time visual and siren warnings for EMS safety.

  1. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  2. The role of integrating natural and social science concepts for risk governance and the design of people-centred early warning systems. Case study from the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System Project (GITEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebert, Niklas; Post, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The development of early warning systems are one of the key domains of adaptation to global environmental change and contribute very much to the development of societal reaction and adaptive capacities to deal with extreme events. Especially, Indonesia is highly exposed to tsunami. In average every three years small and medium size tsunamis occur in the region causing damage and death. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004, the German and Indonesian government agreed on a joint cooperation to develop a People Centered End-to-End Early Warning System (GITEWS). The analysis of risk and vulnerability, as an important step in risk (and early warning) governance, is a precondition for the design of effective early warning structures by delivering the knowledge base for developing institutionalized quick response mechanisms of organizations involved in the issuing of a tsunami warning, and of populations exposed to react to warnings and to manage evacuation before the first tsunami wave hits. Thus, a special challenge for developing countries is the governance of complex cross-sectoral and cross-scale institutional, social and spatial processes and requirements for the conceptualization, implementation and optimization of a people centered tsunami early warning system. In support of this, the risk and vulnerability assessment of the case study aims at identifying those factors that constitute the causal structure of the (dis)functionality between the technological warning and the social response system causing loss of life during an emergency situation: Which social groups are likely to be less able to receive and respond to an early warning alert? And, are people able to evacuate in due time? Here, only an interdisciplinary research approach is capable to analyze the socio-spatial and environmental conditions of vulnerability and risk and to produce valuable results for decision makers and civil society to manage tsunami risk in the early warning context

  3. 30 CFR 75.1103-3 - Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum requirements; general. 75.1103-3 Section 75.1103-3 Mineral Resources MINE SAFETY AND...-UNDERGROUND COAL MINES Fire Protection § 75.1103-3 Automatic fire sensor and warning device systems; minimum...

  4. Connected motorcycle crash warning interfaces.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2016-01-15

    Crash warning systems have been deployed in the high-end vehicle market segment for some time and are trickling down to additional motor vehicle industry segments each year. The motorcycle segment, however, has no deployed crash warning system to dat...

  5. ON-LINE TOXICITY MONITORS AND WATERSHED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Water Quality Early Warning System using On-line Toxicity Monitors (OTMs) has been deployed in the East Fork of the Little Miami River, Clermont County, OH. Living organisms have long been used to determine the toxicity of environmental samples. With advancements in electronic ...

  6. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  7. Detection of Deteriorating Patients on Surgical Wards Outside the ICU by an Automated MEWS-Based Early Warning System With Paging Functionality.

    PubMed

    Heller, Axel R; Mees, Sören T; Lauterwald, Benjamin; Reeps, Christian; Koch, Thea; Weitz, Jürgen

    2018-05-16

    The establishment of early warning systems in hospitals was strongly recommended in recent guidelines to detect deteriorating patients early and direct them to adequate care. Upon reaching predefined trigger criteria, Medical Emergency Teams (MET) should be notified and directed to these patients. The present study analyses the effect of introducing an automated multiparameter early warning score (MEWS)-based early warning system with paging functionality on 2 wards hosting patients recovering from highly complex surgical interventions. The deployment of the system was accompanied by retrospective data acquisition during 12 months (intervention) using 4 routine databases: Hospital patient data management, anesthesia database, local data of the German Resuscitation Registry, and measurement logs of the deployed system (intervention period only). A retrospective 12-month data review using the same aforementioned databases before the deployment of the system served as control. Control and intervention phases were separated by a 6-month washout period for the installation of the system and for training. Data from 3827 patients could be acquired from 2 surgical wards during the two 12-month periods, 1896 patients in the control and 1931 in the intervention cohorts. Patient characteristics differed between the 2 observation phases. American Society of Anesthesiologists risk classification and duration of surgery as well as German DRG case-weight were significantly higher in the intervention period. However, the rate of cardiac arrests significantly dropped from 5.3 to 2.1 per 1000 admissions in the intervention period (P < 0.001). This observation was paralleled by a reduction of unplanned ICU admissions from 3.6% to 3.0% (P < 0.001), and an increase of notifications of critical conditions to the ward surgeon. The primary triggers for MET activation were abnormal ECG alerts, specifically asystole (n = 5), and pulseless electric activity (n = 8). In concert with a well

  8. Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of

  9. Investigation of the use and feasibility of speed warning systems.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-05-01

    This report summarizes a feasibility evaluation of a speed monitoring system that provided speed warning feedback to drivers enrolled in a voluntary program, with particular emphasis on at-risk drivers, especially chronic speeders. This project inclu...

  10. An electrophysiological study of the impact of a Forward Collision Warning System in a simulator driving task.

    PubMed

    Bueno, Mercedes; Fabrigoule, Colette; Deleurence, Philippe; Ndiaye, Daniel; Fort, Alexandra

    2012-08-27

    Driver distraction has been identified as the most important contributing factor in rear-end collisions. In this context, Forward Collision Warning Systems (FCWS) have been developed specifically to warn drivers of potential rear-end collisions. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of a surrogate FCWS and of its reliability according to the driver's attentional state by recording both behavioral and electrophysiological data. Participants drove following a lead motorcycle in a simplified simulator with or without a warning system which gave forewarning of the preceding vehicle braking. Participants had to perform this driving task either alone (simple task) or simultaneously with a secondary cognitive task (dual task). Behavioral and electrophysiological data contributed to revealing a positive effect of the warning system. Participants were faster in detecting the brake light when the system was perfect or imperfect, and the time and attentional resources allocation required for processing the target at higher cognitive level were reduced when the system was completely reliable. When both tasks were performed simultaneously, warning effectiveness was considerably affected at both performance and neural levels; however, the analysis of the brain activity revealed fewer differences between distracted and undistracted drivers when using the warning system. These results show that electrophysiological data could be a valuable tool to complement behavioral data and to have a better understanding of how these systems impact the driver. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  12. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  13. Performance analysis of landslide early warning systems at regional scale: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Calvello, Michele

    2016-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) reduce landslide risk by disseminating timely and meaningful warnings when the level of risk is judged intolerably high. Two categories of LEWSs, can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis: "local" systems and "regional" systems. LEWSs at regional scale (ReLEWSs) are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately-defined homogeneous warning zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the public. Despite many studies on ReLEWSs, no standard requirements exist for assessing their performance. Empirical evaluations are often carried out by simply analysing the time frames during which significant high-consequence landslides occurred in the test area. Alternatively, the performance evaluation is based on 2x2 contingency tables computed for the joint frequency distribution of landslides and alerts, both considered as dichotomous variables. In all these cases, model performance is assessed neglecting some important aspects which are peculiar to ReLEWSs, among which: the possible occurrence of multiple landslides in the warning zone; the duration of the warnings in relation to the time of occurrence of the landslides; the level of the warning issued in relation to the landslide spatial density in the warning zone; the relative importance system managers attribute to different types of errors. An original approach, called EDuMaP method, is proposed to assess the performance of landslide early warning models operating at regional scale. The method is composed by three main phases: Events analysis, Duration Matrix, Performance analysis. The events analysis phase focuses on the definition of landslide (LEs) and warning events (WEs), which are derived from available landslides and warnings databases according to their spatial and temporal characteristics by means of ten input parameters. The

  14. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  15. Near Real Time Flood Warning System for National Capital Territory of Delhi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goyal, A.; Yadav, H.; Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme floods are common phenomena during Indian Monsoons. The National Capital Territory area of India, Delhi, frequently experiences fluvial as well as pluvial inundation due to its proximity to river Yamuna and poor functioning of its stormwater drainage system. The urban floods result in severe waterlogging and heavy traffic snarls, bringing life in this megapolis to a halt. The city has witnessed six major floods since 1900 and thus its residents are well conscious of potential flood risks but the city still lacks a flood warning system. The flood related risks can be considerably reduced, if not eliminated, by issuing timely warnings and implementing adaptive measures. Therefore, the present study attempts to develop a web based platform that integrates Web-GIS technology and mathematical simulation modelling to provide an effective and reliable early flood warning service for Delhi. The study makes use of India Metorological Department's Doppler radar-derived near real time rainfall estimates of 15 minutes time step. The developed SWMM model has been validated using information from gauges, monitoring sensors and crowd sourcing techniques and utilises capabilities of cloud computing on server side for fast processing. This study also recommends safe evacuation policy and remedial measures for flooding hotspots as part of flood risk management plan. With heightened risk of floods in fast urbanizing areas, this work becomes highly pertinent as flood warning system with adequate lead time can not only save precious lives but can also substantially reduce flood damages.

  16. A SDMS Model: Early Warning Coordination Centres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos-Reyes, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Following the tsunami disaster in 2004, the General Secretary of the United Nations (UN) Kofi Annan called for a global early warning system for all hazards and for all communities. He also requested the ISDR (International Strategy fort Disaster Reduction) and its UN partners to conduct a global survey of capacities, gaps and opportunities in relation to early warning systems. The produced report, "Global survey of Early Warning Systems", concluded that there are many gaps and shortcomings and that much progress has been made on early warning systems and great capabilities are available around the world. However, it may be argued that an early warning system (EWS) may not be enough to prevent fatalities due to a natural hazard; i.e., it should be seen as part of a ‘wider' or total system. Furthermore, an EWS may work very well when assessed individually but it is not clear whether it will contribute to accomplish the purpose of the ‘total disaster management system'; i.e., to prevent fatalities. For instance, a regional EWS may only work if it is well co-ordinated with the local warning and emergency response systems that ensure that the warning is received, communicated and acted upon by the potentially affected communities. It may be argued that without these local measures being in place, a regional EWS will have little impact in saving lives. Researchers argued that unless people are warned in remote areas, the technology is useless; for instance McGuire [5] argues that: "I have no doubt that the technical element of the warning system will work very well,"…"But there has to be an effective and efficient communications cascade from the warning centre to the fisherman on the beach and his family and the bar owners." Similarly, McFadden [6] states that: "There's no point in spending all the money on a fancy monitoring and a fancy analysis system unless we can make sure the infrastructure for the broadcast system is there,"… "That's going to require a lot

  17. Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

    2003-12-01

    Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated

  18. A national survey of obstetric early warning systems in the United Kingdom: five years on.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, R A; Wee, M Y K; Bick, D E; Beake, S; Sheppard, Z A; Thomas, S; Hundley, V; Smith, G B; van Teijlingen, E; Thomas, P W

    2014-07-01

    The Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK have recommended obstetric early warning systems for early identification of clinical deterioration to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. This survey explored early warning systems currently used by maternity units in the UK. An electronic questionnaire was sent to all 205 lead obstetric anaesthetists under the auspices of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association, generating 130 (63%) responses. All respondents reported use of an obstetric early warning system, compared with 19% in a similar survey in 2007. Respondents agreed that the six most important physiological parameters to record were respiratory rate, heart rate, temperature, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. One hundred and eighteen (91%) lead anaesthetists agreed that early warning systems helped to prevent obstetric morbidity. Staffing pressures were perceived as the greatest barrier to their use, and improved audit, education and training for healthcare professionals were identified as priority areas. © 2014 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  19. Disaster warning satellite study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1971-01-01

    The Disaster Warning Satellite System is described. It will provide NOAA with an independent, mass communication system for the purpose of warning the public of impending disaster and issuing bulletins for corrective action to protect lives and property. The system consists of three major segments. The first segment is the network of state or regional offices that communicate with the central ground station; the second segment is the satellite that relays information from ground stations to home receivers; the third segment is composed of the home receivers that receive information from the satellite and provide an audio output to the public. The ground stations required in this system are linked together by two, separate, voice bandwidth communication channels on the Disaster Warning Satellites so that a communications link would be available in the event of disruption of land line service.

  20. Operation of a real-time warning system for debris flows in the San Francisco bay area, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Raymond C.; Mark, Robert K.; Barbato, Gary; ,

    1993-01-01

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) have developed an operational warning system for debris flows during severe rainstorms in the San Francisco Bay region. The NWS makes quantitative forecasts of precipitation from storm systems approaching the Bay area and coordinates a regional network of radio-telemetered rain gages. The USGS has formulated thresholds for the intensity and duration of rainfall required to initiate debris flows. The first successful public warnings were issued during a severe storm sequence in February 1986. Continued operation of the warning system since 1986 has provided valuable working experience in rainfall forecasting and monitoring, refined rainfall thresholds, and streamlined procedures for issuing public warnings. Advisory statements issued since 1986 are summarized.

  1. Improving Early Warning Systems with Categorized Course Resource Usage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waddington, R. Joseph; Nam, SungJin; Lonn, Steven; Teasley, Stephanie D.

    2016-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWSs) aggregate multiple sources of data to provide timely information to stakeholders about students in need of academic support. There is an increasing need to incorporate relevant data about student behaviors into the algorithms underlying EWSs to improve predictors of students' success or failure. Many EWSs currently…

  2. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

    2017-10-01

    A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  3. Integration of Thermal Indoor Conditions into Operational Heat Health Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koppe, C.; Becker, P.; Pfafferott, J.

    2009-09-01

    The 2003 heat wave in Western Europe with altogether 35,000 to 50,000 deaths in Europe, several thousands of which occurred in Germany, has clearly pointed out the danger arising from long periods with high heat load. As a consequence, Germany, as many other European countries, has started to implement a Heat Health Warning System (HHWS). The German HHWS is based on the ‘Perceived Temperature'. The 'Perceived Temperature' is determined through a heat budget model of the human organism which includes the main thermophysiologically relevant mechanisms of heat exchange with the atmosphere. The most important meteorological ambience parameters included in the model are air temperature, humidity, wind speed and radiation fluxes in the short-wave and long-wave ranges. In addition to using a heat budget model for the assessment of the thermal load, the German HHWS also takes into account that the human body reacts in different ways to its thermal environment due to physiological adaptation (short-term acclimatisation) and short-term behavioural adaptation. The restriction of such an approach, like the majority of approaches used to issue heat warnings, is that the threshold for a warning is generally derived from meteorological observations and that warnings are issued on the basis of weather forecasts. Both, the observed data and the weather forecasts are only available for outside conditions. The group of people who are most at risk of suffering from a heat wave, however, are the elderly and frail who mainly stay inside. The indoor situation, which varies largely from the conditions outside, is not taken into account by most of the warning systems. To overcome this limitation the DWD, in co-operation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, has developed a model which simulates the thermal conditions in the indoor environment. As air-conditioning in private housing in Germany is not very common, the thermal indoor conditions depend on the outside

  4. In-Vehicle Safety Advisory And Warning System (Ivsaws), Volume I: Executive Summary

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1996-03-01

    THE INVEHICLE SAFETY ADVISORY AND WARNING SYSTEM (IVSAWS) IS A FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION EFFORT TO DEVELOP A NATIONWIDE VEHICULAR INFORMATION SYSTEM THAT PROVIDES DRIVERS WITH ADVANCE, SUPPLEMENTAL NOTIFICATION OF DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS USING...

  5. An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

    PubMed

    Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

    2013-07-01

    An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

  6. Joint NOAA/NWS/USGS prototype debris flow warning system for recently burned areas in Southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Restrepo, P.; Jorgensen, D.P.; Cannon, S.H.; Costa, J.; Laber, J.; Major, J.; Martner, B.; Purpura, J.; Werner, K.

    2008-01-01

    Debris flows, also known as mudslides, are composed gravity-driven mixtures of sediment and water that travel through steep channels, over open hillslopes, and the like. Addressing this issue, US Geological Survey (USGS) and NOAA have established a debris-flow warning system that has the ability to monitor and forecast precipitation and issue timely weather hazard warning. In 2005, this joint NOAA-USGS prototype debris-flow warning system was issued in Southern California and as a result, it has provided valuable information to emergency managers in affected communities.

  7. Potential for Expanding the Near Real Time ForWarn Regional Forest Monitoring System to Include Alaska

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Gasser, Gerald; Hargrove, William; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip D.

    2014-01-01

    The on-line near real time (NRT) ForWarn system is currently deployed to monitor regional forest disturbances within the conterminous United States (CONUS), using daily MODIS Aqua and Terra NDVI data to derive monitoring products. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandated such a system. Work on ForWarn began in 2006 with development and validation of retrospective MODIS NDVI-based forest monitoring products. Subsequently, NRT forest disturbance monitoring products were demonstrated, leading to the actual system deployment in 2010. ForWarn provides new CONUS forest disturbance monitoring products every 8 days, using USGS eMODIS data for current NDVI. ForWarn currently does not cover Alaska, which includes extensive forest lands at risk to multiple biotic and abiotic threats. This poster discusses a case study using Alaska eMODIS Terra data to derive ForWarn like forest change products during the 2010 growing season. The eMODIS system provides current MODIS Terra NDVI products for Alaska. Resulting forest change products were assessed with ground, aerial, and Landsat reference data. When cloud and snow free, these preliminary products appeared to capture regional forest disturbances from insect defoliation and fires; however, more work is needed to mitigate cloud and snow contamination, including integration of eMODIS Aqua data.

  8. The reconnaissance and early-warning optical system design for dual field of space-based "solar blind ultraviolet"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wen-cong; Jin, Dong-dong; Shao, Fei; Hu, Hui-jun; Shi, Yu-feng; Song, Juan; Zhang, Yu-tu; Yong, Liu

    2016-07-01

    With the development of modern technology, especially the development of information technology at high speed, the ultraviolet early warning system plays an increasingly important role. In the modern warfare, how to detect the threats earlier, prevent and reduce the attack of precision-guided missile has become a new challenge. Because the ultraviolet warning technology has high environmental adaptability, the low false alarm rate, small volume and other advantages, in the military field applications it has been developed rapidly. According to current application demands for solar blind ultraviolet detection and warning, this paper proposes a reconnaissance and early-warning optical system, which covers solar blind ultraviolet (250nm-280nm) and dual field. This structure takes advantage of a narrow field of view and long focal length optical system to achieve the target object detection, uses wide-field and short focal length optical system to achieve early warning of the target object. It makes use of an ultraviolet beam-splitter to achieve the separation of two optical systems. According to the detector and the corresponding application needs of two visual field of the optical system, the calculation and optical system design were completed. After the design, the MTF of the two optical system is more than 0.8@39lp/mm. A single pixel energy concentration is greater than 80%.

  9. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

    PubMed Central

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-01-01

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system. PMID:28353681

  10. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health.

    PubMed

    Sahoo, Prasan Kumar; Thakkar, Hiren Kumar; Lee, Ming-Yih

    2017-03-29

    Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth) an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG), Seismocardiography (SCG) data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient's cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG) and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG) data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

  11. Open Source Seismic Software in NOAA's Next Generation Tsunami Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellman, S. B.; Baker, B. I.; Hagerty, M. T.; Leifer, J. M.; Lisowski, S.; Thies, D. A.; Donnelly, B. K.; Griffith, F. P.

    2014-12-01

    The Tsunami Information technology Modernization (TIM) is a project spearheaded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to update the United States' Tsunami Warning System software currently employed at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (Eva Beach, Hawaii) and the National Tsunami Warning Center (Palmer, Alaska). This entirely open source software project will integrate various seismic processing utilities with the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's core software, AWIPS2. For the real-time and near real-time seismic processing aspect of this project, NOAA has elected to integrate the open source portions of GFZ's SeisComP 3 (SC3) processing system into AWIPS2. To provide for better tsunami threat assessments we are developing open source tools for magnitude estimations (e.g., moment magnitude, energy magnitude, surface wave magnitude), detection of slow earthquakes with the Theta discriminant, moment tensor inversions (e.g. W-phase and teleseismic body waves), finite fault inversions, and array processing. With our reliance on common data formats such as QuakeML and seismic community standard messaging systems, all new facilities introduced into AWIPS2 and SC3 will be available as stand-alone tools or could be easily integrated into other real time seismic monitoring systems such as Earthworm, Antelope, etc. Additionally, we have developed a template based design paradigm so that the developer or scientist can efficiently create upgrades, replacements, and/or new metrics to the seismic data processing with only a cursory knowledge of the underlying SC3.

  12. Drunk driving warning system (DDWS). Volume 2, Field test evaluation

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1983-12-01

    The Drunk Driving Warning System (DDWS) is a vehicle-mounted device for testing driver impairment and activating alarms. The driver must pass a steering competency test (the Critical Tracking Task or CTT) in order to drive the car in a normal manner....

  13. The Effect of Sonic Booms on Earthquake Warning Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wurman, Gilead; Haering, Edward A, Jr.; Price, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Several aerospace companies are designing quiet supersonic business jets for service over the United States. These aircraft have the potential to increase the occurrence of mild sonic booms across the country. This leads to interest among earthquake warning (EQW) developers and the general seismological community in characterizing the effect of sonic booms on seismic sensors in the field, their potential impact on EQW systems, and means of discriminating their signatures from those of earthquakes. The SonicBREWS project (Sonic Boom Resistant Earthquake Warning Systems) is a collaborative effort between Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. (SWS) and NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This project aims to evaluate the effects of sonic booms on EQW sensors. The study consists of exposing high-sample-rate (1000 sps) triaxial accelerometers to sonic booms with overpressures ranging from 10 to 600 Pa in the free field and the built environment. The accelerometers record the coupling of the sonic boom to the ground and surrounding structures, while microphones record the acoustic wave above ground near the sensor. Sonic booms are broadband signals with more high-frequency content than earthquakes. Even a 1000 sps accelerometer will produce a significantly aliased record. Thus the observed peak ground velocity is strongly dependent on the sampling rate, and increases as the sampling rate is reduced. At 1000 sps we observe ground velocities that exceed those of P-waves from ML 3 earthquakes at local distances, suggesting that sonic booms are not negligible for EQW applications. We present the results of several experiments conducted under SonicBREWS showing the effects of typical-case low amplitude sonic booms and worst-case high amplitude booms. We show the effects of various sensor placements and sensor array geometries. Finally, we suggest possible avenues for discriminating sonic booms from earthquakes for the purposes of EQW.

  14. Spacecraft design sensitivity for a disaster warning satellite system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maloy, J. E.; Provencher, C. E.; Leroy, B. E.; Braley, R. C.; Shumaker, H. A.

    1977-01-01

    A disaster warning satellite (DWS) is described for warning the general public of impending natural catastrophes. The concept is responsive to NOAA requirements and maximizes the use of ATS-6 technology. Upon completion of concept development, the study was extended to establishing the sensitivity of the DWSS spacecraft power, weight, and cost to variations in both warning and conventional communications functions. The results of this sensitivity analysis are presented.

  15. Exploring the performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in a European emergency department.

    PubMed

    Alam, N; Vegting, I L; Houben, E; van Berkel, B; Vaughan, L; Kramer, M H H; Nanayakkara, P W B

    2015-05-01

    Several triage systems have been developed for use in the emergency department (ED), however they are not designed to detect deterioration in patients. Deteriorating patients may be at risk of going undetected during their ED stay and are therefore vulnerable to develop serious adverse events (SAEs). The national early warning score (NEWS) has a good ability to discriminate ward patients at risk of SAEs. The utility of NEWS had not yet been studied in an ED. To explore the performance of the NEWS in an ED with regard to predicting adverse outcomes. A prospective observational study. Patients Eligible patients were those presenting to the ED during the 6 week study period with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 2 and 3 not triaged to the resuscitation room. NEWS was documented at three time points: on arrival (T0), hour after arrival (T1) and at transfer to the general ward/ICU (T2). The outcomes of interest were: hospital admission, ICU admission, length of stay and 30 day mortality. A total of 300 patients were assessed for eligibility. Complete data was able to be collected for 274 patients on arrival at the ED. NEWS was significantly correlated with patient outcomes, including 30 day mortality, hospital admission, and length of stay at all-time points. The NEWS measured at different time points was a good predictor of patient outcomes and can be of additional value in the ED to longitudinally monitor patients throughout their stay in the ED and in the hospital. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Implementation and Challenges of the Tsunami Warning System in the Western Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schindelé, F.; Gailler, A.; Hébert, H.; Loevenbruck, A.; Gutierrez, E.; Monnier, A.; Roudil, P.; Reymond, D.; Rivera, L.

    2015-03-01

    The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been in operation since 2012. It is contributing to the North-eastern and Mediterranean (NEAM) tsunami warning and mitigation system coordinated by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, and benefits from data exchange with several foreign institutes. This center is supported by the French Government and provides French civil-protection authorities and member states of the NEAM region with relevant messages for assessing potential tsunami risk when an earthquake has occurred in the Western Mediterranean sea or the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean. To achieve its objectives, CENALT has developed a series of innovative techniques based on recent research results in seismology for early tsunami warning, monitoring of sea level variations and detection capability, and effective numerical computation of ongoing tsunamis.

  17. Comparison of Expected Crash and Injury Reduction from Production Forward Collision and Lane Departure Warning Systems.

    PubMed

    Kusano, Kristofer D; Gabler, Hampton C

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) now tests for forward collision warning (FCW) and lane departure warning (LDW). The design of these warnings differs greatly between vehicles and can result in different real-world field performance in preventing or mitigating the effects of collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the expected number of crashes and injured drivers that could be prevented if all vehicles in the fleet were equipped with the FCW and LDW systems tested under the U.S. NCAP. To predict the potential crashes and serious injury that could be prevented, our approach was to computationally model the U.S. crash population. The models simulated all rear-end and single-vehicle road departure collisions that occurred in a nationally representative crash database (NASS-CDS). A sample of 478 single-vehicle crashes from NASS-CDS 2012 was the basis for 24,822 simulations for LDW. A sample of 1,042 rear-end collisions from NASS-CDS years 1997-2013 was the basis for 7,616 simulations for FCW. For each crash, 2 simulations were performed: (1) without the system present and (2) with the system present. Models of each production safety system were based on 54 model year 2010-2014 vehicles that were evaluated under the NCAP confirmation procedure for LDW and/or FCW. NCAP performed 40 LDW and 45 FCW tests of these vehicles. The design of the FCW systems had a dramatic impact on their potential to prevent crashes and injuries. Between 0 and 67% of crashes and 2 and 69% of moderately to fatally injured drivers in rear-end impacts could have been prevented if all vehicles were equipped with the FCW systems. Earlier warning times resulted in increased benefits. The largest effect on benefits, however, was the lower operating speed threshold of the systems. Systems that only operated at speeds above 20 mph were less than half as effective as those that operated above 5 mph with similar warning times. The production LDW systems could have prevented

  18. The impact of a physician's warning on recovery after alcoholism treatment.

    PubMed

    Walsh, D C; Hingson, R W; Merrigan, D M; Levenson, S M; Coffman, G A; Heeren, T; Cupples, L A

    1992-02-05

    To study whether alcoholic workers had seen physicians during the year they were identified by their company, whether they recalled physicians' warnings about drinking, and whether such warnings affected outcomes 2 years later. Workers were interviewed at intake and 2 years later: subgroups who did and did not see physicians and who did and did not recall warnings were compared. A company-union employee assistance program. Two hundred problem drinkers, newly identified on the job, predominantly male, blue-collar workers. Drinking, drunkenness, average daily alcohol consumption, and impairment score. Among the 200 participants, 74% saw physicians in the index year; only 22% recalled warnings. Recall of a warning was associated with liver disease, continued drinking while ill, supervisors' job warnings, older age, and marijuana use. Two years later, those warned were more likely to be abstaining, and sober, and were less impaired. Recalling a physician's warning at intake into alcoholism treatment was associated with better prognosis 2 years later. However, among this group of employees whose drinking was serious enough to be identified on the job, fewer than a quarter recalled physicians' warnings, even though more than three quarters had seen physicians in the year preceding intake.

  19. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  20. Evaluation of transit bus turn warning systems for pedestrians and cyclists.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-05-01

    As part of a cooperative agreement with the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), the Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon (TriMet) conducted a demonstration test of three commercially-available pedestrian turn warning systems fo...

  1. Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

    2017-07-01

    Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

    2017-12-01

    Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we

  3. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  4. 77 FR 5616 - Proposed Technical Standard Order (TSO)-C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-03

    ... (TSO)-C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS) ACTION: Notice of availability and request for... second draft of Technical Standard Order (TSO)- C151c, Terrain Awareness and Warning System. Comments received from the initial June 2011 release, resulted in changes to the proposed document significant...

  5. Pre-hospital National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is associated with in-hospital mortality and critical care unit admission: A cohort study.

    PubMed

    Abbott, Tom E F; Cron, Nicholas; Vaid, Nidhi; Ip, Dorothy; Torrance, Hew D T; Emmanuel, Julian

    2018-03-01

    National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is increasingly used in UK hospitals. However, there is only limited evidence to support the use of pre-hospital early warning scores. We hypothesised that pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care escalation within the first 48 h of hospital stay. Planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study at a single UK teaching hospital. Consecutive medical ward admissions over a 20-day period were included in the study. Data were collected from ambulance report forms, medical notes and electronic patient records. Pre-hospital NEWS was calculated retrospectively. The primary outcome was a composite of death or critical care unit escalation within 48 h of hospital admission. The secondary outcome was length of hospital stay. 189 patients were included in the analysis. The median pre-hospital NEWS was 3 (IQR 1-5). 13 patients (6.9%) died or were escalated to the critical care unit within 48 h of hospital admission. Pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care unit escalation (OR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.51; p = 0.02), but NEWS on admission to hospital was more strongly associated with this outcome (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.18-1.97, p < 0.01). Neither was associated with hospital length of stay. Pre-hospital NEWS was associated with death or critical care unit escalation within 48 h of hospital admission. NEWS could be used by ambulance crews to assist in the early triage of patients requiring hospital treatment or rapid transport. Further cohort studies or trials in large samples are required before implementation.

  6. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  7. Advanced LED warning system for rural intersections : phase 2 (ALERT-2) : final report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-02-01

    This report presents findings of the second phase of the Advanced LED Warning System for Rural : Intersections (ALERT) project. Since it is the next generation of the same system, the second phase : system is referred to as the ALERT-2 system while t...

  8. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  9. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  10. Economics of Early Warning Scores for identifying clinical deterioration-a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Murphy, A; Cronin, J; Whelan, R; Drummond, F J; Savage, E; Hegarty, J

    2018-02-01

    In 2013, a National Early Warning System (EWS) was implemented in Ireland. Whilst evidence exists to support the clinical effectiveness of EWS in the acute health care setting, there is a paucity of information on their cost and cost effectiveness. The objective of this systematic literature review was to critically evaluate the economic literature on the use of EWS in adult patients in acute health care settings for the timely detection of physiological deterioration. A systematic literature review was conducted to accumulate the economic evidence on the use of EWS in adult patients in acute health care settings. The search yielded one health technology assessment, two budget impact analyses and two cost descriptions. Three of the studies were Irish, and considered the national EWS system. A Dutch study reported financial consequences of a single parameter EWS, as part of a rapid response system, in a surgical ward. The fifth study examined an advanced triage system in a medical emergency admission unit in Wales. The economic evidence on the use of EWS amongst adult patients in acute health care settings for the timely detection of physiological deterioration is limited. Further research is required to investigate the cost effectiveness of EWS, and the appropriateness of using standard methods to do so. The recent implementation of a national EWS in Ireland offers a unique opportunity to bridge this gap in the literature to examine the costs and cost effectiveness of a nationally implemented EWS system.

  11. Communication-Link Approach to Actuation of Grade-Crossing Motorist-Warning Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1975-07-01

    Previous studies indicate that one promising avenue to grade-crossing motorist-warning systems, offering lower cost and independent of railroad-track circuits, is use of a radio-communication link for signal activation. By this means, the presence of...

  12. Reduction Continuous Rank Probability Score for Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinh, Nguyen Bao; Thielen Del-Pozo, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Bogner, Konrad

    2010-05-01

    Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), calculated operationally by the weather services for various lead-times, are increasingly used as input to hydrological models to extend warning times from short- to medium and even long-range. Although the general skill of EPS has been demonstrated to increase continuously over the past decades, it remains comparatively low for precipitation, one of the driving forces of hydrological processes. Due to the non-linear integrating nature of river runoff and the complexities of catchment runoff processes, one cannot assume that the skill of the hydrological forecasts is necessarily similar to the skill of the meteorological predictions. Furthermore, due to the integrating nature of discharge, which accumulates effects from upstream catchment and slow-responding groundwater processes, commonly applied skill scores in meteorology may not be fully adapted to describe the skill of probabilistic discharge predictions. For example, while for hydrological applications it may be interesting to compare the forecast skill between upstream and downstream stations, meteorological applications focus more on climatologically relevant regions. In this paper, a range of widely used probabilistic skill scores for assessing reliability, spread-skill, sharpness and bias are calculated for a 12 months case study in the Danube river basin. The Continuous Rank Probability Score (CRPS) is demonstrated to have deficiencies when comparing skill of discharge forecast for different hydrological stations. Therefore, we propose a modified CRPS that allows this comparison and is therefore particularly useful for hydrological applications.

  13. Flash flood warnings for ungauged basins based on high-resolution precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Janet, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    ingested as time-lagged ensembles. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 185 basins in the South of France showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). Various verification metrics (e.g., Relative Mean Error, Brier Skill Score) show the skill of ensemble precipitation and flow forecasts compared to single-valued persistency benchmarks. Planned enhancements include integrating additional probabilistic NWP products (e.g., AROME precipitation ensembles on longer forecast horizon), accounting for and reducing hydrologic uncertainties from the model parameters and initial conditions via data assimilation, and developing a comprehensive observational and post-event damage database to determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating flash flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970 Auger, L., Dupont, O., Hagelin, S., Brousseau, P., Brovelli, P., 2015. AROME-NWC: a new nowcasting tool based on an operational mesoscale forecasting system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1603-1611, doi: 10.1002/qj.2463

  14. Detectable Warnings : Testing and Performance Evaluation at Transit Systems

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1994-11-01

    A detectable warning is a standardized surface feature, comprised of closely spaced surface projections (truncated domes), built in or applied to walking surfaces to warn visibly impaired individuals of hazards. U.S. DOT regulations, under the Americ...

  15. A Practitioner's Guide to Implementing Early Warning Systems. REL 2015-056

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frazelle, Sarah; Nagel, Aisling

    2015-01-01

    To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

  16. Lane marking/striping to improve image processing lane departure warning systems.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2007-05-01

    Vision-based Lane Departure Warning Systems (LDWS) depend on pavement marking tracking to : determine that vehicles perform unintended drifts out of the travel lanes. Thus, it is expected that : the performances of these LDWS be influenced by the vis...

  17. Evaluation of modified Alvarado scoring system and RIPASA scoring system as diagnostic tools of acute appendicitis.

    PubMed

    Shuaib, Abdullah; Shuaib, Ali; Fakhra, Zainab; Marafi, Bader; Alsharaf, Khalid; Behbehani, Abdullah

    2017-01-01

    Acute appendicitis is the most common surgical condition presented in emergency departments worldwide. Clinical scoring systems, such as the Alvarado and modified Alvarado scoring systems, were developed with the goal of reducing the negative appendectomy rate to 5%-10%. The Raja Isteri Pengiran Anak Saleha Appendicitis (RIPASA) scoring system was established in 2008 specifically for Asian populations. The aim of this study was to compare the modified Alvarado with the RIPASA scoring system in Kuwait population. This study included 180 patients who underwent appendectomies and were documented as having "acute appendicitis" or "abdominal pain" in the operating theatre logbook (unit B) from November 2014 to March 2016. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), diagnostic accuracy, predicted negative appendectomy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the modified Alvarado and RIPASA scoring systems were derived using SPSS statistical software. A total of 136 patients were included in this study according to our criteria. The cut-off threshold point of the modified Alvarado score was set at 7.0, which yielded a sensitivity of 82.8% and a specificity of 56%. The PPV was 89.3% and the NPV was 42.4%. The cut-off threshold point of the RIPASA score was set at 7.5, which yielded a 94.5% sensitivity and an 88% specificity. The PPV was 97.2% and the NPV was 78.5%. The predicted negative appendectomy rates were 10.7% and 2.2% for the modified Alvarado and RIPASA scoring systems, respectively. The negative appendectomy rate decreased significantly, from 18.4% to 10.7% for the modified Alvarado, and to 2.2% for the RIPASA scoring system, which was a significant difference (P<0.001) for both scoring systems. Based on the results of this study, the RIPASA score is a simple scoring system with better sensitivity and specificity than the modified Alvarado scoring system in Asian populations. It consists of 14

  18. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  19. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  20. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  1. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  2. 40 CFR 205.173-3 - Warning statement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning statement. 205.173-3 Section... PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.173-3 Warning... of that category the manufacturer distributes into commerce: Warning: This product should be checked...

  3. The Effectiveness of Reverse Telephon Emergency Warning Systems in the October 2007 San Diego Wildfires

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sorensen, John H; Sorensen, Barbara Vogt

    2009-01-01

    Late in October, 2007, fast-moving wildfires fueled by extreme Santa Ana winds threatened residents and their properties in San Diego County, California. The impacted area also included the City of San Diego within the County s boundaries. It turns out the San Diego firestorms would be the biggest in the County's history, surpassing the devastating 2003 firestorms in intensity, duration, and impacted populations. Both San Diego County and the City of San Diego have installed telephone reverse call-down emergency warning systems. A telephone survey of 1200 households located in areas identified by emergency officials as the evacuation zones for themore » 2007 fires was conducted in late March and early April 2008 using a random telephone dialing process to determine if people responded to the reverse telephone warning systems calls. Findings indicate that those who received a reverse emergency warning call were much more likely to evacuate than those who did not receive a call. The telephone calls were also the most likely source of first warning.« less

  4. Geoethical issues involved in Tsunami Warning System concepts and operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    The main goal of a Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is to mitigate the effect of an incoming tsunami by alerting coastal population early enough to allow people to evacuate safely from inundation zones. Though this representation might seem oversimplified, nonetheless, achieving successfully this goal requires a positive synergy of geoscience, communication, emergency management, technology, education, social sciences, politics. Geoethical issues arise always when there is an interaction between geoscience and society, and TWS is a paradigmatic case where interaction is very strong and is made critical because a) the formulation of the tsunami alert has to be made in a time as short as possible and therefore on uncertain data, and b) any evaluation error (underestimation or overestimation) can lead to serious (and sometimes catastrophic) consequences involving wide areas and a large amount of population. From the geoethical point of view three issues are critical: how to (i) combine forecasts and uncertainties reasonably and usefully, (ii) cope and possibly solve the dilemma whether it is better over-alerting or under-alerting population and (iii) deal with responsibility and liability of geoscientists, TWS operators, emergency operators and coastal population. The discussion will be based on the experience of the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Center (HL-NTWC, Greece), which operates on 24/7 basis as a special unit of the Institute of Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens, and acts also as Candidate Tsunami Service Provider (CTSP) in the framework of the North-Eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS) of the IOC/UNESCO. Since August 2012, when HL-NTWC was officially declared as operational, 14 tsunami warning messages have been disseminated to a large number of subscribers after strong submarine earthquakes occurring in Greece and elsewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. It is recognized that the alerting process

  5. Anatomy of Historical Tsunamis: Lessons Learned for Tsunami Warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igarashi, Y.; Kong, L.; Yamamoto, M.; McCreery, C. S.

    2011-11-01

    Tsunamis are high-impact disasters that can cause death and destruction locally within a few minutes of their occurrence and across oceans hours, even up to a day, afterward. Efforts to establish tsunami warning systems to protect life and property began in the Pacific after the 1946 Aleutian Islands tsunami caused casualties in Hawaii. Seismic and sea level data were used by a central control center to evaluate tsunamigenic potential and then issue alerts and warnings. The ensuing events of 1952, 1957, and 1960 tested the new system, which continued to expand and evolve from a United States system to an international system in 1965. The Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific (ITSU) steadily improved through the decades as more stations became available in real and near-real time through better communications technology and greater bandwidth. New analysis techniques, coupled with more data of higher quality, resulted in better detection, greater solution accuracy, and more reliable warnings, but limitations still exist in constraining the source and in accurately predicting propagation of the wave from source to shore. Tsunami event data collected over the last two decades through international tsunami science surveys have led to more realistic models for source generation and inundation, and within the warning centers, real-time tsunami wave forecasting will become a reality in the near future. The tsunami warning system is an international cooperative effort amongst countries supported by global and national monitoring networks and dedicated tsunami warning centers; the research community has contributed to the system by advancing and improving its analysis tools. Lessons learned from the earliest tsunamis provided the backbone for the present system, but despite 45 years of experience, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami reminded us that tsunamis strike and kill everywhere, not just in the Pacific. Today, a global intergovernmental tsunami warning system is coordinated

  6. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  7. Tsunami Generation Modelling for Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Annunziato, A.; Matias, L.; Ulutas, E.; Baptista, M. A.; Carrilho, F.

    2009-04-01

    In the frame of a collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the Institute of Meteorology in Portugal, a complete analytical tool to support Early Warning Systems is being developed. The tool will be part of the Portuguese National Early Warning System and will be used also in the frame of the UNESCO North Atlantic Section of the Tsunami Early Warning System. The system called Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) includes a worldwide scenario database that has been pre-calculated using the SWAN-JRC code (Annunziato, 2007). This code uses a simplified fault generation mechanism and the hydraulic model is based on the SWAN code (Mader, 1988). In addition to the pre-defined scenario, a system of computers is always ready to start a new calculation whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismic networks (such as USGS or EMSC) and is judged capable to generate a Tsunami. The calculation is performed using minimal parameters (epicentre and the magnitude of the earthquake): the programme calculates the rupture length and rupture width by using empirical relationship proposed by Ward (2002). The database calculations, as well the newly generated calculations with the current conditions are therefore available to TAT where the real online analysis is performed. The system allows to analyze also sea level measurements available worldwide in order to compare them and decide if a tsunami is really occurring or not. Although TAT, connected with the scenario database and the online calculation system, is at the moment the only software that can support the tsunami analysis on a global scale, we are convinced that the fault generation mechanism is too simplified to give a correct tsunami prediction. Furthermore short tsunami arrival times especially require a possible earthquake source parameters data on tectonic features of the faults like strike, dip, rake and slip in order to minimize real time uncertainty of rupture parameters. Indeed the earthquake

  8. Study on Early-Warning System of Cotton Production in Hebei Province

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Runqing; Ma, Teng

    Cotton production plays an important role in Hebei. It straightly influences cotton farmers’ life, agricultural production and national economic development as well. In recent years, due to cotton production frequently fluctuating, two situations, “difficult selling cotton” and “difficult buying cotton” have alternately occurred, and brought disadvantages to producers, businesses and national finance. Therefore, it is very crucial to research the early warning of cotton production for solving the problem of cotton production’s frequent fluctuation and ensuring the cotton industry’s sustainable development. This paper founds a signal lamp model of early warning through employing time-difference correlation analysis method to select early-warning indicators and statistical analysis method associated with empirical analysis to determine early-warning limits. Finally, it not only obtained warning conditions of cotton production from 1993 to 2006 and forecast 2007’s condition, but also put forward corresponding countermeasures to prevent cotton production from fluctuating. Furthermore, an early-warning software of cotton production is completed through computer programming on the basis of the early warning model above.

  9. U.S. Tsunami Warning System: Advancements since the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, P.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. government embarked on a strengthening program for the U.S. Tsunami Warning System (TWS) in the aftermath of the disastrous 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The program was designed to improve several facets of the U.S. TWS, including: upgrade of the coastal sea level network - 16 new stations plus higher transmission rates; expansion of the deep ocean tsunameter network - 7 sites increased to 39; upgrade of seismic networks - both USGS and Tsunami Warning Center (TWC); increase of TWC staff to allow 24x7 coverage at two centers; development of an improved tsunami forecast system; increased preparedness in coastal communities; expansion of the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center facility; and improvement of the tsunami data archive effort at the National Geophysical Data Center. The strengthening program has been completed and has contributed to the many improvements attained in the U.S. TWS since 2004. Some of the more significant enhancements to the program are: the number of sea level and seismic sites worldwide available to the TWCs has more than doubled; the TWC areas-of-responsibility expanded to include the U.S./Canadian Atlantic coasts, Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and U.S. Arctic coast; event response time decreased by approximately one-half; product accuracy has improved; a tsunami forecast system developed by NOAA capable of forecasting inundation during an event has been delivered to the TWCs; warning areas are now defined by pre-computed or forecasted threat versus distance or travel time, significantly reducing the amount of coast put in a warning; new warning dissemination techniques have been implemented to reach a broader audience in less time; tsunami product content better reflects the expected impact level; the number of TsunamiReady communities has quadrupled; and the historical data archive has increased in quantity and accuracy. In addition to the strengthening program, the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP

  10. Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass.

    PubMed

    Smith, D L; Kerns, J P; Walker, N R; Payne, A F; Horvath, B; Inguagiato, J C; Kaminski, J E; Tomaso-Peterson, M; Koch, P L

    2018-01-01

    Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass.

  11. Development and validation of a weather-based warning system to advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot on turfgrass

    PubMed Central

    Smith, D. L.; Kerns, J. P.; Walker, N. R.; Payne, A. F.; Horvath, B.; Inguagiato, J. C.; Kaminski, J. E.; Tomaso-Peterson, M.

    2018-01-01

    Dollar spot is one of the most common diseases of golf course turfgrass and numerous fungicide applications are often required to provide adequate control. Weather-based disease warning systems have been developed to more accurately time fungicide applications; however, they tend to be ineffective and are not currently in widespread use. The primary objective of this research was to develop a new weather-based disease warning system to more accurately advise fungicide applications to control dollar spot activity across a broad geographic and climactic range. The new dollar spot warning system was developed from data collected at field sites in Madison, WI and Stillwater, OK in 2008 and warning system validation sites were established in Madison, WI, Stillwater, OK, Knoxville, TN, State College, PA, Starkville, MS, and Storrs, CT between 2011 and 2016. A meta-analysis of all site-years was conducted and the most effective warning system for dollar spot development consisted of a five-day moving average of relative humidity and average daily temperature. Using this model the highest effective probability that provided dollar spot control similar to that of a calendar-based program across the numerous sites and years was 20%. Additional analysis found that the 20% spray threshold provided comparable control to the calendar-based program while reducing fungicide usage by up to 30%, though further refinement may be needed as practitioners implement this warning system in a range of environments not tested here. The weather-based dollar spot warning system presented here will likely become an important tool for implementing precision disease management strategies for future turfgrass managers, especially as financial and regulatory pressures increase the need to reduce pesticide usage on golf course turfgrass. PMID:29522560

  12. Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

    Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

  13. Safety impact of an integrated crash warning system based on field test data.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-06-13

    This paper provides the results of an analysis : conducted to assess the safety impact of an integrated : vehicle-based crash warning system based on : naturalistic driving data collected from a field : operational test. The system incorporates four ...

  14. Early Warning System: a juridical notion to be built

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarelli, A.

    2007-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are becoming effective tools for real time mitigation of the harmful effects arising from widely different hazards, which range from famine to financial crisis, malicious attacks, industrial accidents, natural catastrophes, etc. Early warning of natural catastrophic events allows to implement both alert systems and real time prevention actions for the safety of people and goods exposed to the risk However the effective implementation of early warning methods is hindered by the lack of a specific juridical frame. Under a juridical point of view, in fact, EWS and in general all the activities of prevention need a careful regulation, mainly with regards to responsibility and possible compensation for damage caused by the implemented actions. A preventive alarm, in fact, has an active influence on infrastructures in control of public services which in turn will suffer suspensions or interruptions because of the early warning actions. From here it is necessary to possess accurate normative references related to the typology of structures or infrastructures upon which the activity of readiness acts; the progressive order of suspension of public services; the duration of these suspensions; the corporate bodies or administrations that are competent to assume such decisions; the actors responsible for the consequences of false alarm, missed or delayed alarms; the mechanisms of compensation for damage; the insurance systems; etc In the European Union EWS are often quoted as preventive methods of mitigation of the risk. Nevertheless, a juridical notion of EWS of general use is not available. In fact, EW is a concept that finds application in many different circles, each of which require specific adaptations, and may concern subjects for which the European Union doesn't have exclusive competence as may be the responsibility of the member states to assign the necessary regulations. In so far as the juridical arrangement of the EWS, this must be

  15. Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

  16. A Steady-State Visual Evoked Potential Brain-Computer Interface System Evaluation as an In-Vehicle Warning Device

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riyahi, Pouria

    This thesis is part of current research at Center for Intelligence Systems Research (CISR) at The George Washington University for developing new in-vehicle warning systems via Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). The purpose of conducting this research is to contribute to the current gap between BCI and in-vehicle safety studies. It is based on the premise that accurate and timely monitoring of human (driver) brain's signal to external stimuli could significantly aide in detection of driver's intentions and development of effective warning systems. The thesis starts with introducing the concept of BCI and its development history while it provides a literature review on the nature of brain signals. The current advancement and increasing demand for commercial and non-medical BCI products are described. In addition, the recent research attempts in transportation safety to study drivers' behavior or responses through brain signals are reviewed. The safety studies, which are focused on employing a reliable and practical BCI system as an in-vehicle assistive device, are also introduced. A major focus of this thesis research has been on the evaluation and development of the signal processing algorithms which can effectively filter and process brain signals when the human subject is subjected to Visual LED (Light Emitting Diodes) stimuli at different frequencies. The stimulated brain generates a voltage potential, referred to as Steady-State Visual Evoked Potential (SSVEP). Therefore, a newly modified analysis algorithm for detecting the brain visual signals is proposed. These algorithms are designed to reach a satisfactory accuracy rate without preliminary trainings, hence focusing on eliminating the need for lengthy training of human subjects. Another important concern is the ability of the algorithms to find correlation of brain signals with external visual stimuli in real-time. The developed analysis models are based on algorithms which are capable of generating results

  17. A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsiao, N.; Wu, Y.; Chen, D.; Kuo, K.; Shin, T.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) system has already been developed and tested in Taiwan for more than ten years. With the implementation of a real-time strong-motion network by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a virtual sub-network (VSN) system based on regional early warning approach was utilized at the first attempt. In order to shorten the processing time, seismic waveforms in a 10-sec time window starting from the first P-wave arrival time at the nearest station are used to determine the hypocenter and earthquake magnitude which is dubbed ML10. Since 2001, this EEW system has responded to a total of 255 events with magnitude greater than 4.5 occurred inland or off the coast of Taiwan. The system is capable of issuing an earthquake report within 20 sec of its occurrence with good magnitude estimations for events up to magnitude 6.5. This will provide early warning for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicentre. In the latest development, a new prototype EEW system based on P-wave method was developed. Instead of ML10, we adopt the “Pd magnitude”, MPd, as our magnitude indicator in the new system. Pd is defined as the peak amplitude of the initial P-wave displacement. In the previous studies, by analyzing the Pd attenuation relationship with earthquake magnitudes, Pd was proved to be a good magnitude estimator for EEW purpose. Therefore, we adopt the Pd magnitude in developing our next generation EEW system. The new system is designed and constructed based on the Central Weather Bureau Seismographic Network (CWBSN). The CWBSN is a real-time seismographic network with more than one hundred digital telemetered seismic stations distributed over the entire Taiwan. Currently, there are three types of seismic instruments installed at the stations, either co-site or separately installed, including short-period seismographs, accelerometers, and broadband instruments. For the need of integral data processing, we use the Earthworm system as a common

  18. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  19. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  20. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  1. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  2. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  3. 32 CFR 806b.28 - Warning banners.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warning banners. 806b.28 Section 806b.28... PROGRAM Privacy Act Notifications § 806b.28 Warning banners. Information systems that contain information... subject to the Privacy Act will have warning banners displayed on the first screen (at a minimum) to...

  4. Development of SNS Stream Analysis Based on Forest Disaster Warning Information Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oh, J.; KIM, D.; Kang, M.; Woo, C.; Kim, D.; Seo, J.; Lee, C.; Yoon, H.; Heon, S.

    2017-12-01

    Forest disasters, such as landslides and wildfires, cause huge economic losses and casualties, and the cost of recovery is increasing every year. While forest disaster mitigation technologies have been focused on the development of prevention and response technologies, they are now required to evolve into evacuation and border evacuation, and to develop technologies fused with ICT. In this study, we analyze the SNS (Social Network Service) stream and implement a system to detect the message that the forest disaster occurred or the forest disaster, and search the keyword related to the forest disaster in advance in real time. It is possible to detect more accurate forest disaster messages by repeatedly learning the retrieved results using machine learning techniques. To do this, we designed and implemented a system based on Hadoop and Spark, a distributed parallel processing platform, to handle Twitter stream messages that open SNS. In order to develop the technology to notify the information of forest disaster risk, a linkage of technology such as CBS (Cell Broadcasting System) based on mobile communication, internet-based civil defense siren, SNS and the legal and institutional issues for applying these technologies are examined. And the protocol of the forest disaster warning information service system that can deliver the SNS analysis result was developed. As a result, it was possible to grasp real-time forest disaster situation by real-time big data analysis of SNS that occurred during forest disasters. In addition, we confirmed that it is possible to rapidly propagate alarm or warning according to the disaster situation by using the function of the forest disaster warning information notification service. However, the limitation of system application due to the restriction of opening and sharing of SNS data currently in service and the disclosure of personal information remains a problem to be solved in the future. Keyword : SNS stream, Big data, Machine

  5. Warning Triggers in Environmental Hazards: Who Should Be Warned to Do What and When?

    PubMed

    Cova, Thomas J; Dennison, Philip E; Li, Dapeng; Drews, Frank A; Siebeneck, Laura K; Lindell, Michael K

    2017-04-01

    Determining the most effective public warnings to issue during a hazardous environmental event is a complex problem. Three primary questions need to be answered: Who should take protective action? What is the best action? and When should this action be initiated? Warning triggers provide a proactive means for emergency managers to simultaneously answer these questions by recommending that a target group take a specified protective action if a preset environmental trigger condition occurs (e.g., warn a community to evacuate if a wildfire crosses a proximal ridgeline). Triggers are used to warn the public across a wide variety of environmental hazards, and an improved understanding of their nature and role promises to: (1) advance protective action theory by unifying the natural, built, and social themes in hazards research into one framework, (2) reveal important information about emergency managers' risk perception, situational awareness, and threat assessment regarding threat behavior and public response, and (3) advance spatiotemporal models for representing the geography and timing of disaster warning and response (i.e., a coupled natural-built-social system). We provide an overview and research agenda designed to advance our understanding and modeling of warning triggers. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

    2013-04-01

    The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

  7. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  8. Effective Vehicle-Based Kangaroo Detection for Collision Warning Systems Using Region-Based Convolutional Networks.

    PubMed

    Saleh, Khaled; Hossny, Mohammed; Nahavandi, Saeid

    2018-06-12

    Traffic collisions between kangaroos and motorists are on the rise on Australian roads. According to a recent report, it was estimated that there were more than 20,000 kangaroo vehicle collisions that occurred only during the year 2015 in Australia. In this work, we are proposing a vehicle-based framework for kangaroo detection in urban and highway traffic environment that could be used for collision warning systems. Our proposed framework is based on region-based convolutional neural networks (RCNN). Given the scarcity of labeled data of kangaroos in traffic environments, we utilized our state-of-the-art data generation pipeline to generate 17,000 synthetic depth images of traffic scenes with kangaroo instances annotated in them. We trained our proposed RCNN-based framework on a subset of the generated synthetic depth images dataset. The proposed framework achieved a higher average precision (AP) score of 92% over all the testing synthetic depth image datasets. We compared our proposed framework against other baseline approaches and we outperformed it with more than 37% in AP score over all the testing datasets. Additionally, we evaluated the generalization performance of the proposed framework on real live data and we achieved a resilient detection accuracy without any further fine-tuning of our proposed RCNN-based framework.

  9. The social impacts of the heat-health watch/warning system in Phoenix, Arizona: assessing the perceived risk and response of the public.

    PubMed

    Kalkstein, Adam J; Sheridan, Scott C

    2007-10-01

    Heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States. Although previous research suggests that social influences affect human responses to natural disaster warnings, no studies have examined the social impacts of heat or heat warnings on a population. Here, 201 surveys were distributed in Metropolitan Phoenix to determine the social impacts of the heat warning system, or more specifically, to gauge risk perception and warning response. Consistent with previous research, increased risk perception of heat results in increased response to a warning. Different social factors such as sex, race, age, and income all play an important role in determining whether or not people will respond to a warning. In particular, there is a strong sense of perceived risk to the heat among Hispanics which translates to increased response when heat warnings are issued. Based on these findings, suggestions are presented to help improve the Phoenix Heat Warning System.

  10. Technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert production system: an Earthquake Early Warning system for the West Coast of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Given, Douglas D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Heaton, Thomas; Hauksson, Egill; Allen, Richard; Hellweg, Peggy; Vidale, John; Bodin, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide as much as tens of seconds of warning to people and automated systems before strong shaking arrives. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners are developing such an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the West Coast of the United States. This document describes the technical implementation of that system, which leverages existing stations and infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks to achieve this new capability. While significant progress has been made in developing the ShakeAlert early warning system, improved robustness of each component of the system and additional testing and certification are needed for the system to be reliable enough to issue public alerts. Major components of the system include dense networks of ground motion sensors, telecommunications from those sensors to central processing systems, algorithms for event detection and alert creation, and distribution systems to alert users. Capital investment costs for a West Coast EEW system are projected to be $38.3M, with additional annual maintenance and operations totaling $16.1M—in addition to current ANSS expenditures for earthquake monitoring. An EEW system is complementary to, but does not replace, other strategies to mitigate earthquake losses. The system has limitations: false and missed alerts are possible, and the area very near to an earthquake epicenter may receive little or no warning. However, such an EEW system would save lives, reduce injuries and damage, and improve community resilience by reducing longer-term economic losses for both public and private entities.

  11. Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems.

    PubMed

    Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni

    2017-12-01

    Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

  12. Developing an automatic classification system of vegetation anomalies for early warning with the ASAP (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meroni, M.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Lemoine, G.

    2016-12-01

    Anomaly maps and time profiles of remote sensing derived indicators relevant to monitor crop and vegetation stress can be accessed online thanks to a rapidly growing number of web based portals. However, timely and systematic global analysis and coherent interpretation of such information, as it is needed for example for SDG 2 related monitoring, remains challenging. With the ASAP system (Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production) we propose a two-step analysis to provide monthly warning of production deficits in water-limited agriculture worldwide. The first step is fully automated and aims at classifying each administrative unit (1st sub-national level) into a number of possible warning levels, ranging from "none" to "watch" and up to "extended alarm". The second step involves the verification of the automatic warnings and integration into a short national level analysis by agricultural analysts. In this paper we describe the methodological development of the automatic vegetation anomaly classification system. Warnings are triggered only during the crop growing season, defined by a remote sensing based phenology. The classification takes into consideration the fraction of the agricultural and rangelands area for each administrative unit that is affected by a severe anomaly of two rainfall-based indicators (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed at 1 and 3-month scale) and one biophysical indicator (the cumulative NDVI from the start of the growing season). The severity of the warning thus depends on the timing, the nature and the number of indicators for which an anomaly is detected. The prototype system is using global NDVI images of the METOP sensor, while a second version is being developed based on 1km Modis NDVI with temporal smoothing and near real time filtering. Also a specific water balance model is under development to include agriculture water stress information in addition to the SPI. The monthly warning classification and crop

  13. The North Warning System: A Canadian military SATCOM success

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wawryk, Ivan J.

    The strategic threat to North America presented by modern, supersonic bombers and long range cruise missiles has stimulated a modernization of atmospheric defence capability. The North Warning System (NWS), employs a chain of microwave radars across the Arctic and down the east coast of Canada to provide tactical warning and attack assessment information to NORAD and its forces. The responsibility for NWS facilities construction and communications is allocated to Canada. Earlier investigations in Canada and the U.S. had confirmed that an all satellite communications system to link the 47 Canadian NWS radars to command and control centers was more economical than any terrestrial alternative. A project was undertaken by the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) to acquire and install an integrated, digital satellite communications system for the NWS. This paper outlines the project background and procurement process. System requirements and specifications are discussed and the communications system is described in some detail. The communications equipment will be required to function unmanned in extreme Arctic conditions for extended periods. Specifications called for a long haul communications network (LHCN), a maintenance control system to monitor and control the equipment, and a suite of on-site communications for each location. The LHCN is a fully integrated, redundant satellite system which employs a transponder on each of the Anik D satellites. Either transponder can carry the full communications load. The system is configured as a star network with the hub at North Bay. Five remote stations and the North Bay facility have been built in phase one of the project; the second phase will see the construction of 36 unattended stations across the Arctic and down the Baffin Island and Labrador coasts.

  14. Research and application of a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system: A case study in China.

    PubMed

    Li, Chen; Zhu, Zhijie

    2018-06-01

    As one of the most serious meteorological disasters in modern society, air pollution has received extensive attention from both citizens and decision-makers. With the complexity of pollution components and the uncertainty of prediction, it is both critical and challenging to construct an effective and practical early-warning system. In this paper, a novel hybrid air quality early-warning system for pollution contaminant monitoring and analysis was proposed. To improve the efficiency of the system, an advanced attribute selection method based on fuzzy evaluation and rough set theory was developed to select the main pollution contaminants for cities. Moreover, a hybrid model composed of the theory of "decomposition and ensemble", an extreme learning machine and an advanced heuristic algorithm was developed for pollution contaminant prediction; it provides deterministic and interval forecasting for tackling the uncertainty of future air quality. Daily pollution contaminants of six major cities in China were selected as a dataset to evaluate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed air quality early-warning system. The superior experimental performance determined by the values of several error indexes illustrated that the proposed early-warning system was of great effectiveness and efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  16. Toward a National Early Warning System for Forest Disturbances Using Remotely Sensed Canopy Phenology

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    HargroveJr., William Walter; Spruce, Joe; Gasser, Gerry

    2009-01-01

    Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation to the left. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system that would respond in near real-time. An ideal warning system would be national in scope, automated, able to improve its prognostic ability with experience, and would provide regular map updates online in familiar and accessible formats. Such a goal is quite ambitiousmore » - analyzing vegetation change weekly at a national scale with moderate resolution is a daunting task. The foremost challenge is discerning unusual or unexpected disturbances from the normal backdrop of seasonal and annual changes in vegetation conditions. A historical perspective is needed to define a 'baseline' for expected, normal behavior against which detected changes can be correctly interpreted. It would be necessary to combine temperature, precipitation, soils, and topographic information with the remotely sensed data to discriminate and interpret the changing vegetation conditions on the ground. Conterminous national coverage implies huge data volumes, even at a moderate resolution (250-500m), and likely requires a supercomputing capability. Finally, such a national warning system must carefully balance the rate of successful threat detection with false positives. Since 2005, the USDA Forest Service has partnered with the NASA Stennis Space Center and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop methods for monitoring environmental threats, including native insects and diseases, wildfire, invasive pests and pathogens, tornados, hurricanes, and hail. These tools will be instrumental in helping the Forest Service's two Environmental Threat Assessment Centers better meet their Congressional mandate to help track the health

  17. Survey of computer vision-based natural disaster warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ko, ByoungChul; Kwak, Sooyeong

    2012-07-01

    With the rapid development of information technology, natural disaster prevention is growing as a new research field dealing with surveillance systems. To forecast and prevent the damage caused by natural disasters, the development of systems to analyze natural disasters using remote sensing geographic information systems (GIS), and vision sensors has been receiving widespread interest over the last decade. This paper provides an up-to-date review of five different types of natural disasters and their corresponding warning systems using computer vision and pattern recognition techniques such as wildfire smoke and flame detection, water level detection for flood prevention, coastal zone monitoring, and landslide detection. Finally, we conclude with some thoughts about future research directions.

  18. Non-invasive, home-based electroencephalography hypoglycaemia warning system for personal monitoring using skin surface electrodes: a single-case feasibility study.

    PubMed

    Clewett, Christopher J; Langley, Phillip; Bateson, Anthony D; Asghar, Aziz; Wilkinson, Antony J

    2016-03-01

    Hypoglycaemia unawareness is a common condition associated with increased risk of severe hypoglycaemia. The purpose of the authors' study was to develop a simple to use, home-based and non-invasive hypoglycaemia warning system based on electroencephalography (EEG), and to demonstrate its use in a single-case feasibility study. A participant with type 1 diabetes forms a single-person case study where blood sugar levels and EEG were recorded. EEG was recorded using skin surface electrodes placed behind the ear located within the T3 region by the participant in the home. EEG was analysed retrospectively to develop an algorithm which would trigger a warning if EEG changes associated with hypoglycaemia onset were detected. All hypoglycaemia events were detected by the EEG hypoglycaemia warning algorithm. Warnings were triggered with blood glucose concentration levels at or below 4.2 mmol/l in this participant and no warnings were issued when in euglycaemia. The feasibility of a non-invasive EEG-based hypoglycaemia warning system for personal monitoring in the home has been demonstrated in a single case study. The results suggest that further studies are warranted to evaluate the system prospectively in a larger group of participants.

  19. Lane change warning threshold based on driver perception characteristics.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang; Sun, Qinyu; Fu, Rui; Li, Zhen; Zhang, Qiong

    2018-08-01

    Lane Change Warning system (LCW) is exploited to alleviate driver workload and improve the safety performance of lane changes. Depending on the secure threshold, the lane change warning system could transmit caution to drivers. Although the system possesses substantial benefits, it may perturb the conventional operating of the driver and affect driver judgment if the warning threshold does not conform to the driver perception of safety. Therefore, it is essential to establish an appropriate warning threshold to enhance the accuracy rate and acceptability of the lane change warning system. This research aims to identify the threshold that conforms to the driver perception of the ability to safely change lanes with a rear vehicle fast approaching. We propose a theoretical warning model of lane change based on a safe minimum distance and deceleration of the rear vehicle. For the purpose of acquiring the different safety levels of lane changes, 30 licensed drivers are recruited and we obtain the extreme moments represented by driver perception characteristics from a Front Extremity Test and a Rear Extremity Test implemented on the freeway. The required deceleration of the rear vehicle corresponding to the extreme time is calculated according to the proposed model. In light of discrepancies in the deceleration in these extremity experiments, we determine two levels of a hierarchical warning system. The purpose of the primary warning is to remind drivers of the existence of potentially dangerous vehicles and the second warning is used to warn the driver to stop changing lanes immediately. We use the signal detection theory to analyze the data. Ultimately, we confirm that the first deceleration threshold is 1.5 m/s 2 and the second deceleration threshold is 2.7 m/s 2 . The findings provide the basis for the algorithm design of LCW and enhance the acceptability of the intelligent system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Field evaluation of the myrtle creek advanced curve warning system : final report.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-06-01

    As part of a larger study focusing on determining optimum countermeasures for speed related crashes, this report presents the results of a quantitative and qualitative before and after evaluation of a dynamic curve warning system deployed at one site...

  1. An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

    2009-04-01

    Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords

  2. Probabilistic and Evolutionary Early Warning System: concepts, performances, and case-studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zollo, A.; Emolo, A.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.

    2013-12-01

    PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for Earthquake Early Warning that integrates algorithms for real-time earthquake location, magnitude estimation and damage assessment into a highly configurable and easily portable package. In its regional configuration, the software processes, in real-time, the 3-component acceleration data streams coming from seismic stations, for P-waves arrival detection and, in the case a quite large event is occurring, can promptly performs event detection and location, magnitude estimation and peak ground-motion prediction at target sites. The regional approach has been integrated with a threshold-based early warning method that allows, in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake, to identify the most Probable Damaged Zone starting from the real-time measurement at near-source stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicenter, of the peak displacement (Pd) and predominant period of P-waves (τc), over a few-second long window after the P-wave arrival. Thus, each recording site independently provides an evolutionary alert level, according to the Pd and τc it measured, through a decisional table. Since 2009, PRESTo has been under continuous real-time testing using data streaming from the Iripinia Seismic Network (Southern Italy) and has produced a bulletin of some hundreds low magnitude events, including all the M≥2.5 earthquakes occurred in that period in Irpinia. Recently, PRESTo has been also implemented at the accelerometric network and broad-band networks in South Korea and in Romania, and off-line tested in Iberian Peninsula, in Turkey, in Israel, and in Japan. The feasibility of an Early Warning System at national scale, is currently under testing by studying the performances of the PRESTo platform for the Italian Accelerometric Network. Moreover, PRESTo is under experimentation in order to provide alert in a high-school located in the

  3. Emergency warning for people with disabilities.

    PubMed

    Putkovich, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The intent of this article is to assess the current state of Emergency Warning capabilities in the United States and make recommendations on what needs to be done to cost effectively establish a National Emergency Warning System to best serve the people of the United States, including those with disabilities. As part of this assessment, terminology will be defined, existing systems will be examined, critical needs and functions will be explained, and recommendations made for a system to deliver emergency messages to those people immediately at risk from natural and human-caused disasters in a timely and effective manner, regardless of location or situational circumstance. The assessment will include the needs and available technologies for delivering emergency warnings to people with disabilities, which are generally little understood, poorly addressed, and often ignored.

  4. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

    2017-04-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  5. Message on a bottle: are alcohol warning labels about cancer appropriate?

    PubMed

    Miller, Emma R; Ramsey, Imogen J; Baratiny, Genevieve Y; Olver, Ian N

    2016-02-11

    Although most Australians are unaware of the risk, there is strong evidence for a direct link between alcohol consumption and many types of cancer. Warning labels on alcohol products have been proposed as a cost-effective strategy to inform the community of this health risk. We aimed to identify how Australians might respond to such an approach. We conducted a national online survey canvassing responses to four separate cancer warning messages on labels. The graphically presented messages were informed by qualitative data from a series of focus groups among self-identified 'light-to-moderate' drinkers. For each label, participants were asked their level of agreement with impact statements about raising awareness, prompting conversation, influencing drinking behaviour and educating others about cancer risk. We analysed responses according to demographic and other factors, including self-reported drinking behaviour (using the 3-item Alcohol Use Disorder Test - AUDIT-C - scores). Approximately 1600 participants completed the survey, which was open to all Australian adults over a period of 1 month in 2014. Overall, the labels were well received, with the majority (>70 %) agreeing all labels could raise awareness and prompt conversations about the cancer risk associated with alcohol. Around 50 % or less agreed that the labels could influence drinking behaviour, but larger proportions agreed that the labels would prompt them to discuss the issue with family and friends. Although sex, AUDIT-C score and age were significantly associated with agreement on bivariate analysis, multivariate analyses demonstrated that being inclined to act upon warning label recommendations in general was the most important predictor of agreement with all of the impact statements. Having a low AUDIT-C score also predicted agreement that the labels might prompt behaviour change in friends. The findings suggest that providing detailed warnings about cancer risk on alcohol products is a viable

  6. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  7. Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

    PubMed

    Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

    2014-11-01

    To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Idaho storm warning system operational test

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-12-01

    The Storm Warning Project was initiated in 1993 as a result of a large number of serious traffic crashes that occurred during periods of low visibility on I-84 in southeastern Idaho between 1988 and 1993. The purpose of the project was to determine i...

  9. Alcohol Warning Label Perceptions: Do Warning Sizes and Plain Packaging Matter?

    PubMed

    Al-Hamdani, Mohammed; Smith, Steven M

    2017-01-01

    There is a dearth of research on the effectiveness of stringent alcohol warning labels. Our experiment tested whether increasing the size of an alcohol health warning lowers product-based ratings. We examined whether plain packaging lowers ratings of alcohol products and the consumers who use them, increases ratings of bottle "boringness," and enhances warning recognition compared with branded packaging. A total of 440 adults (51.7% female) viewed one of three warning sizes (50%, 75%, or 90% of label surface) on either a plain or branded bottle of distilled spirits, wine, and beer. Participants also rated alcohol bottles on product-based (assessing the product itself), consumer-based (assessing perceptions of consumers of the product), and bottle boringness ratings, and then attempted to recognize the correct warning out of four choices. As expected, the size of warning labels lowered product-based ratings. Similarly, plain packaging lowered product-based and consumer-based ratings and increased bottle boringness but only for wine bottles. Further, plain packaging increased the odds of warning recognition on bottles of distilled spirits. This study shows that plain packaging and warning size (similar to the graphic warnings on cigarette packages) affect perceptions about alcohol bottles. It also shows that plain packaging increases the likelihood for correct health warning recognition, which builds the case for alcohol warning and packaging research and policy.

  10. Early Warning/Track-and-Trigger Systems to Detect Deterioration and Improve Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients.

    PubMed

    Shiloh, Ariel L; Lominadze, George; Gong, Michelle N; Savel, Richard H

    2016-02-01

    As a global effort toward improving patient safety, a specific area of focus has been the early recognition and rapid intervention in deteriorating ward patients. This focus on "failure to rescue" has led to the construction of early warning/track-and-trigger systems. In this review article, we present a description of the data behind the creation and implementation of such systems, including multiple algorithms and strategies for deployment. Additionally, the strengths and weaknesses of the various systems and their evaluation in the literature are emphasized. Despite the limitations of the current literature, the potential benefit of these early warning/track-and-trigger systems to improve patient outcomes remains significant. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  11. Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

    2015-04-01

    When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

  12. Performance evaluation of the national early warning system for shallow landslides in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahl, Mads-Peter; Piciullo, Luca; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of the increased number of rainfall-and snowmelt-induced landslides (debris flows, debris slides, debris avalanches and slush flows) occurring in Norway, a national landslide early warning system (EWS) has been developed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially necessary of triggering slope failures. The system, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and has been designed in cooperation with the Norwegian Public Road Administration (SVV), the Norwegian National Rail Administration (JBV) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET). Decision-making in the EWS is based upon hazard threshold levels, hydro-meteorological and real-time landslide observations as well as landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Hazard threshold levels have been obtained through statistical analyses of historical landslides and modelled hydro-meteorological parameters. Daily hydro-meteorological conditions such as rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, soil saturation, groundwater level and frost depth have been derived from a distributed version of the hydrological HBV-model. Two different landslide susceptibility maps are used as supportive data in deciding daily warning levels. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days with an update possibility later during the day according to the information gathered by the monitoring variables. The performance of the EWS has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method. In particular, the performance of warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014 has been evaluated using two different landslide datasets. The best performance is obtained for the smallest and more accurate dataset. Different performance results may be observed as a function of changing the landslide density criterion, Lden(k), (i.e., thresholds considered to

  13. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  14. Alcohol Warning Label Awareness and Attention: A Multi-method Study.

    PubMed

    Pham, Cuong; Rundle-Thiele, Sharyn; Parkinson, Joy; Li, Shanshi

    2018-01-01

    Evaluation of alcohol warning labels requires careful consideration ensuring that research captures more than awareness given that labels may not be prominent enough to attract attention. This study investigates attention of current in market alcohol warning labels and examines whether attention can be enhanced through theoretically informed design. Attention scores obtained through self-report methods are compared to objective measures (eye-tracking). A multi-method experimental design was used delivering four conditions, namely control, colour, size and colour and size. The first study (n = 559) involved a self-report survey to measure attention. The second study (n = 87) utilized eye-tracking to measure fixation count and duration and time to first fixation. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was utilized. Eye-tracking identified that 60% of participants looked at the current in market alcohol warning label while 81% looked at the optimized design (larger and red). In line with observed attention self-reported attention increased for the optimized design. The current study casts doubt on dominant practices (largely self-report), which have been used to evaluate alcohol warning labels. Awareness cannot be used to assess warning label effectiveness in isolation in cases where attention does not occur 100% of the time. Mixed methods permit objective data collection methodologies to be triangulated with surveys to assess warning label effectiveness. Attention should be incorporated as a measure in warning label effectiveness evaluations. Colour and size changes to the existing Australian warning labels aided by theoretically informed design increased attention. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  15. Coupling a regional warning system to a semantic engine on online news for enhancing landslide prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Battistini, Alessandro; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

    2017-04-01

    Landslide inventories are basic data for large scale landslide modelling, e.g. they are needed to calibrate and validate rainfall thresholds, physically based models and early warning systems. The setting up of landslide inventories with traditional methods (e.g. remote sensing, field surveys and manual retrieval of data from technical reports and local newspapers) is time consuming. The objective of this work is to automatically set up a landslide inventory using a state-of-the art semantic engine based on data mining on online news (Battistini et al., 2013) and to evaluate if the automatically generated inventory can be used to validate a regional scale landslide warning system based on rainfall-thresholds. The semantic engine scanned internet news in real time in a 50 months test period. At the end of the process, an inventory of approximately 900 landslides was set up for the Tuscany region (23,000 km2, Italy). The inventory was compared with the outputs of the regional landslide early warning system based on rainfall thresholds, and a good correspondence was found: e.g. 84% of the events reported in the news is correctly identified by the model. In addition, the cases of not correspondence were forwarded to the rainfall threshold developers, which used these inputs to update some of the thresholds. On the basis of the results obtained, we conclude that automatic validation of landslide models using geolocalized landslide events feedback is possible. The source of data for validation can be obtained directly from the internet channel using an appropriate semantic engine. We also automated the validation procedure, which is based on a comparison between forecasts and reported events. We verified that our approach can be automatically used for a near real time validation of the warning system and for a semi-automatic update of the rainfall thresholds, which could lead to an improvement of the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system. In the near future

  16. Evaluation of an active wildlife-sensing and driver warning system at Trapper's Point.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-04-01

    Collisions with wildlife are a serious concern on American highways. In Wyoming, the concern has prompted the Wyoming Department of Transportation : to construct an experimental wildlife detection and driver warning system at Trappers Point, north...

  17. Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

    2016-01-01

    A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

  18. Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.

    2017-07-01

    One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

  19. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  20. Solar Energetic Particle Warnings from a Coronagraph

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    St Cyr, O. C.; Posner, A.; Burkepile, J. T.

    2017-01-01

    We report here the concept of using near-real time observations from a coronagraph to provide early warning of a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) and the possible onset of a solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The 1 January 2016, fast CME, and its associated SEP event are cited as an example. The CME was detected by the ground-based K-Cor coronagraph at Mauna Loa Solar Observatory and by the SOHO Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph. The near-real-time availability of the high-cadence K-Cor observations in the low corona leads to an obvious question: Why has no one attempted to use a coronagraph as an early warning device for SEP events? The answer is that the low image cadence and the long latency of existing spaceborne coronagraphs make them valid for archival studies but typically unsuitable for near-real-time forecasting. The January 2016 event provided favorable CME viewing geometry and demonstrated that the primary component of a prototype ground-based system for SEP warnings is available several hours on most days. We discuss how a conceptual CME-based warning system relates to other techniques, including an estimate of the relative SEP warning times, and how such a system might be realized.

  1. Assessment of a drowsy driver warning system for heavy-vehicle drivers : final report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-04-01

    Drowsiness has a globally negative impact on performance, slowing reaction time, decreasing situational awareness, and impairing judgment. A field operational test of an early prototype Drowsy Driver Warning System was conducted as a result of 12 yea...

  2. Warning Alert HITL Experiment Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Monk, Kevin J.; Ferm, Lisa; Roberts, Zach

    2018-01-01

    Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) are being developed to support the integration of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace (NAS). Input from subject matter experts and multiple research studies have informed display requirements for Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) systems aimed at supporting timely and appropriate pilot responses to collision hazards. Phase 1 DAA MOPS alerting is designed to inform pilots if an avoidance maneuver is necessary; the two highest alert levels - caution and warning - indicate how soon pilot action is required and whether there is adequate time to coordinate with the air traffic controller (ATC). Additional empirical support is needed to clarify the extent to which warning-level alerting impacts DAA task performance. The present study explores the differential effects of the auditory and visual cues provided by the DAA Warning alert, and performance implications compared to caution-only alerting are discussed.

  3. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  4. LDAR, A Three-Dimensional Lightning Warning System: Its Development and Use by the Government, and Transition to Public Availability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Starr, Stan; Sharp, David; Merceret, Francis; Madura, John; Murphy, Martin

    1998-01-01

    NASA, at the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC), developed and operates a unique high precision lightning location system to provide lightning related weather warnings. These warnings are used to stop lightning-sensitive operations such as space vehicle launches and ground operations where equipment and personnel are at risk. The data is provided to the Range Weather Operations [45th Weather Squadron, U. S. Air Force (USAF)] where it is used with other meteorological data to issue weather advisories and warnings for Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) and KSC operations. This system, called Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR), provides users with a graphical display in three dimensions of 66 MHz radio frequency events generated by lightning processes. The locations of these events provide a sound basis for the prediction of lightning hazards. NASA and Global Atmospherics, Inc. are developing a new system that will replace the unique LDAR components with commercially available and maintainable components having improved capabilities. These components will be phased in to ensure full continuity and access to this important warning technology. These LDAR systems are expected to eventually be available for installation and use by the public at specialized facilities, such as airports, and for general weather warnings via the National Weather Service (NWS) or television broadcast. The NWS in Melbourne has had access to real-time LDAR data since 1993 on an experimental basis. This use of LDAR has shown promise for the improvement of aviation forecasts and severe weather warnings. More so, it has opened the door to investigate the feasibility of issuing lightning-related public advisories. The success of its early use suggests that this technology may improve safety and potentially save lives, therefore constituting a significant benefit to the public. This paper describes the LDR system, the plans and progress of these upgrades, and the potential benefits of its use.

  5. Implications Of The 11 March Tohoku Tsunami On Warning Systems And Vertical Evacuation Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraser, S.; Leonard, G.; Johnston, D.

    2011-12-01

    The Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11th 2011 claimed over 20,000 lives in an event which inundated over 500 km2 of land on the north-east coast of Japan. Successful execution of tsunami warning procedures and evacuation strategies undoubtedly saved thousands of lives, and there is evidence that vertical evacuation facilities were a key part of reducing the fatality rate in several municipalities in the Sendai Plains. As with all major disasters, however, post-event observations show that there are lessons to be learned in minimising life loss in future events. This event has raised or reinforced several key points that should be considered for implementation in all areas at risk from tsunami around the world. Primary areas for discussion are the need for redundant power supplies in tsunami warning systems; considerations of natural warnings when official warnings may not come; adequate understanding and estimation of the tsunami hazard; thorough site assessments for critical infrastructure, including emergency management facilities and tsunami refuges; and adequate signage of evacuation routes and refuges. This paper will present observations made on two field visits to the Tohoku region during 2011, drawing conclusions from field observations and discussions with local emergency officials. These observations will inform the enhancement of current tsunami evacuation strategies in New Zealand; it is believed discussion of these observations can also benefit continuing development of warning and evacuation strategies existing in the United States and elsewhere.

  6. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (CBEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  7. PROPOSED WATER QUALITY SURVEILLANCE NETWORK USING PHYSICAL, CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (BEWS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Homeland Protection Act of 2002 specifically calls for the investigation and use of Early Warning Systems (EWS) for water security reasons. The EWS is a screening tool for detecting changes in source water and distribution system water quality. A suite of time-relevant biol...

  8. Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.; ,

    2004-01-01

    The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

  9. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  10. Early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure: a systematic literature review of cost-effectiveness models.

    PubMed

    Albuquerque De Almeida, Fernando; Al, Maiwenn; Koymans, Ron; Caliskan, Kadir; Kerstens, Ankie; Severens, Johan L

    2018-04-01

    Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management. Areas covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems. Expert commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

  11. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2015-04-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  12. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  13. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  14. Evaluation of the Norridgewock intersection collision avoidance warning system on Route 201A, Norridgewock, Maine.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-11-01

    Review of the Norridgewock Intersection Collision Avoidance Warning System : demonstrates that the system appears to effectively reduce the number of potential : crashes at the intersection of River Road, Sophie May Lane and Route 201A. : Results sho...

  15. ForWarn Forest Disturbance Change Detection System Provides a Weekly Snapshot of US Forest Conditions to Aid Forest Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Kumar, J.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2012-12-01

    The Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center and Western Wildland Environmental Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service have collaborated with NASA Stennis Space Center to develop ForWarn, a forest monitoring tool that uses MODIS satellite imagery to produce weekly snapshots of vegetation conditions across the lower 48 United States. Forest and natural resource managers can use ForWarn to rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests caused by insects, diseases, wildfires, severe weather, or other natural or human-caused events. ForWarn detects most types of forest disturbances, including insects, disease, wildfires, frost and ice damage, tornadoes, hurricanes, blowdowns, harvest, urbanization, and landslides. It also detects drought, flood, and temperature effects, and shows early and delayed seasonal vegetation development. Operating continuously since January 2010, results show ForWarn to be a robust and highly capable tool for detecting changes in forest conditions. To help forest and natural resource managers rapidly detect, identify, and respond to unexpected changes in the nation's forests, ForWarn produces sets of national maps showing potential forest disturbances at 231m resolution every 8 days, and posts the results to the web for examination. ForWarn compares current greenness with the "normal," historically seen greenness that would be expected for healthy vegetation for a specific location and time of the year, and then identifies areas appearing less green than expected to provide a strategic national overview of potential forest disturbances that can be used to direct ground and aircraft efforts. In addition to forests, ForWarn also tracks potential disturbances in rangeland vegetation and agriculural crops. ForWarn is the first national-scale system of its kind based on remote sensing developed specifically for forest disturbances. The ForWarn system had an official unveiling and rollout in

  16. Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

  17. The effectiveness of physiologically based early warning or track and trigger systems after triage in adult patients presenting to emergency departments: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Wuytack, Francesca; Meskell, Pauline; Conway, Aislinn; McDaid, Fiona; Santesso, Nancy; Hickey, Fergal G; Gillespie, Paddy; Raymakers, Adam J N; Smith, Valerie; Devane, Declan

    2017-12-06

    Changes to physiological parameters precede deterioration of ill patients. Early warning and track and trigger systems (TTS) use routine physiological measurements with pre-specified thresholds to identify deteriorating patients and trigger appropriate and timely escalation of care. Patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) are undiagnosed, undifferentiated and of varying acuity, yet the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using early warning systems and TTS in this setting is unclear. We aimed to systematically review the evidence on the use, development/validation, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of physiologically based early warning systems and TTS for the detection of deterioration in adult patients presenting to EDs. We searched for any study design in scientific databases and grey literature resources up to March 2016. Two reviewers independently screened results and conducted quality assessment. One reviewer extracted data with independent verification of 50% by a second reviewer. Only information available in English was included. Due to the heterogeneity of reporting across studies, results were synthesised narratively and in evidence tables. We identified 6397 citations of which 47 studies and 1 clinical trial registration were included. Although early warning systems are increasingly used in EDs, compliance varies. One non-randomised controlled trial found that using an early warning system in the ED may lead to a change in patient management but may not reduce adverse events; however, this is uncertain, considering the very low quality of evidence. Twenty-eight different early warning systems were developed/validated in 36 studies. There is relatively good evidence on the predictive ability of certain early warning systems on mortality and ICU/hospital admission. No health economic data were identified. Early warning systems seem to predict adverse outcomes in adult patients of varying acuity presenting to the ED but there

  18. Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

    Treesearch

    Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

    2016-01-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

  19. Improved hospital mortality with a low MET dose: the importance of a modified early warning score and communication tool.

    PubMed

    Mullany, D V; Ziegenfuss, M; Goleby, M A; Ward, H E

    2016-11-01

    Rapid response systems have been mandated for the recognition and management of the deteriorating patient. Increasing medical emergency team (MET) dose may be associated with improved outcomes. Large numbers of MET calls may divert resources from the program providing the service unless additional personnel are provided. To describe the implementation and outcomes of a multifaceted rapid response system (RRS) in a teaching hospital, we conducted an observational study. The RRS consisted of the introduction of a MET together with 1) redesign of the ward observation chart with the vital sign variables colour-coded to identify variation from normal; 2) mandated minimum frequency of vital sign measurement; 3) three formal levels of escalation based on the degree of physiological instability as measured by a modified early warning score (MEWS); 4) COMPASS© education and e-learning package with a two-hour face-to-face small group tutorial; 5) practise in escalation and communication using the ISBAR (Identify, Situation, Background, Assessment, Response/Recommendation) communication tool. The primary outcome measures were all-cause hospital mortality rate and hospital standardised mortality ratio (HSMR) compared to peer hospitals calculated by the Health Round Table. There were 161,153 separations and 1,994 hospital deaths from July 2008 to December 2012. The MET call rate was 11.3 per 1000 separations in 2012. There was a decline in all-cause hospital mortality from 13.8 to 11 deaths/1000 separations. The HSMR decreased from 95.7 in 2008 to 66 in the second half of 2012 (below the three standard deviation control limit). A low MET dose may be associated with improved hospital mortality when combined with a MEWS and an intervention to improve communication.

  20. How does a collision warning system shape driver's brake response time? The influence of expectancy and automation complacency on real-life emergency braking.

    PubMed

    Ruscio, Daniele; Ciceri, Maria Rita; Biassoni, Federica

    2015-04-01

    Brake Reaction Time (BRT) is an important parameter for road safety. Previous research has shown that drivers' expectations can impact RT when facing hazardous situations, but driving with advanced driver assistance systems, can change the way BRT are considered. The interaction with a collision warning system can help faster more efficient responses, but at the same time can require a monitoring task and evaluation process that may lead to automation complacency. The aims of the present study are to test in a real-life setting whether automation compliancy can be generated by a collision warning system and what component of expectancy can impact the different tasks involved in an assisted BRT process. More specifically four component of expectancy were investigated: presence/absence of anticipatory information, previous direct experience, reliability of the device, and predictability of the hazard determined by repeated use of the warning system. Results supply indication on perception time and mental elaboration of the collision warning system alerts. In particular reliable warning quickened the decision making process, misleading warnings generated automation complacency slowing visual search for hazard detection, lack of directed experienced slowed the overall response while unexpected failure of the device lead to inattentional blindness and potential pseudo-accidents with surprise obstacle intrusion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A test-based method for the assessment of pre-crash warning and braking systems.

    PubMed

    Bálint, András; Fagerlind, Helen; Kullgren, Anders

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, a test-based assessment method for pre-crash warning and braking systems is presented where the effectiveness of a system is measured by its ability to reduce the number of injuries of a given type or severity in car-to-car rear-end collisions. Injuries with whiplash symptoms lasting longer than 1 month and MAIS2+ injuries in both vehicles involved in the crash are considered in the assessment. The injury reduction resulting from the impact speed reduction due to a pre-crash system is estimated using a method which has its roots in the dose-response model. Human-machine interaction is also taken into account in the assessment. The results reflect the self-protection as well as the partner-protection performance of a pre-crash system in the striking vehicle in rear-end collisions and enable a comparison between two or more systems. It is also shown how the method may be used to assess the importance of warning as part of a pre-crash system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  3. Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system

  4. Toward a national early warning system for forest disturbances using remotely sensed canopy phenology

    Treesearch

    William W. Hargrove; Joseph P. Spruce; Gerald E. Gasser; Forrest M. Hoffman

    2009-01-01

    Imagine a national system with the ability to quickly identify forested areas under attack from insects or disease. Such an early warning system might minimize surprises such as the explosion of caterpillars referred to in the quotation above. Moderate resolution (ca. 500m) remote sensing repeated at frequent (ca. weekly) intervals could power such a monitoring system...

  5. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and

  6. Evaluation of a radar-based proximity warning system for off-highway dump trucks.

    PubMed

    Ruff, Todd

    2006-01-01

    A radar-based proximity warning system was evaluated by researchers at the Spokane Research Laboratory of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health to determine if the system would be effective in detecting objects in the blind spots of an off-highway dump truck. An average of five fatalities occur each year in surface mines as a result of an equipment operator not being aware of a smaller vehicle, person or change in terrain near the equipment. Sensor technology that can detect such obstacles and that also is designed for surface mining applications is rare. Researchers worked closely with the radar system manufacturer to test and modify the system on large, off-highway dump trucks at a surface mine over a period of 2 years. The final system was thoroughly evaluated by recording video images from a camera on the rear of the truck and by recording all alarms from the rear-mounted radar. Data show that the system reliably detected small vehicles, berms, people and other equipment. However, alarms from objects that posed no immediate danger were common, supporting the assertion that sensor-based systems for proximity warning should be used in combination with other devices, such as cameras, that would allow the operator to check the source of any alarm.

  7. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation.

    PubMed

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh

    2017-12-01

    To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony

    2010-05-01

    The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from < 10° on the valley floor to > 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

  9. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazin, S.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  10. Clinical significance of automatic warning function of cardiac remote monitoring systems in preventing acute cardiac episodes

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Shou-Qiang; Xing, Shan-Shan; Gao, Hai-Qing

    2014-01-01

    Objective: In addition to ambulatory Holter electrocardiographic recording and transtelephonic electrocardiographic monitoring (TTM), a cardiac remote monitoring system can provide an automatic warning function through the general packet radio service (GPRS) network, enabling earlier diagnosis, treatment and improved outcome of cardiac diseases. The purpose of this study was to estimate its clinical significance in preventing acute cardiac episodes. Methods: Using 2 leads (V1 and V5 leads) and the automatic warning mode, 7160 patients were tested with a cardiac remote monitoring system from October 2004 to September 2007. If malignant arrhythmias or obvious ST-T changes appeared in the electrocardiogram records was automatically transferred to the monitoring center, the patient and his family members were informed, and the corresponding precautionary or therapeutic measures were implemented immediately. Results: In our study, 274 cases of malignant arrhythmia, including sinus standstill and ventricular tachycardia, and 43 cases of obvious ST-segment elevation were detected and treated. Because of early detection, there was no death or deformity. Conclusions: A cardiac remote monitoring system providing an automatic warning function can play an important role in preventing acute cardiac episodes. PMID:25674124

  11. Flight Tests of the Turbulence Prediction and Warning System (TPAWS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamilton, David W.; Proctor, Fred H.; Ahmad, Nashat N.

    2012-01-01

    Flight tests of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Turbulence Prediction And Warning System (TPAWS) were conducted in the Fall of 2000 and Spring of 2002. TPAWS is a radar-based airborne turbulence detection system. During twelve flights, NASA's B-757 tallied 53 encounters with convectively induced turbulence. Analysis of data collected during 49 encounters in the Spring of 2002 showed that the TPAWS Airborne Turbulence Detection System (ATDS) successfully detected 80% of the events at least 30 seconds prior to the encounter, achieving FAA recommended performance criteria. Details of the flights, the prevailing weather conditions, and each of the turbulence events are presented in this report. Sensor and environmental characterizations are also provided.

  12. Early warning system for financially distressed hospitals via data mining application.

    PubMed

    Koyuncugil, Ali Serhan; Ozgulbas, Nermin

    2012-08-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a Financial Early Warning System (FEWS) for hospitals by using data mining. A data mining method, Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm, was used in the study for financial profiling and developing FEWS. The study was conducted in Turkish Ministry of Health's public hospitals which were in financial distress and in need of urgent solutions for financial issues. 839 hospitals were covered and financial data of the year 2008 was obtained from Ministry of Health. As a result of the study, it was determined that 28 hospitals (3.34%) had good financial performance, and 811 hospitals (96.66%) had poor financial performance. According to FEWS, the covered hospitals were categorized into 11 different financial risk profiles, and it was found that 6 variables affected financial risk of hospitals. According to the profiles of hospitals in financial distress, one early warning signal was detected and financial road map was developed for risk mitigation.

  13. A Comparison of Two Scoring Methods for an Automated Speech Scoring System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xi, Xiaoming; Higgins, Derrick; Zechner, Klaus; Williamson, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper compares two alternative scoring methods--multiple regression and classification trees--for an automated speech scoring system used in a practice environment. The two methods were evaluated on two criteria: construct representation and empirical performance in predicting human scores. The empirical performance of the two scoring models…

  14. Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe.

    PubMed

    Semenza, Jan C

    2015-06-02

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

  15. Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Semenza, Jan C.

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats. PMID:26042370

  16. A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

    2010-12-01

    During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

  17. A Plan to Develop a Red Tide Warning System for Seawater Desalination Process Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Tae Woo; Yun, Hong Sik

    2017-04-01

    The holt of the seawater desalination process for fifty five days due to the eight-month long red tide in 2008 in the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, had lost about 10 billion KRW. The POSCO Seawater Desalination facility, located in Gwangyang Bay Area in the Southern Sea, has produced 30,000 tons of fresh water per day since 2014. Since there has been an incident of red time in the area for three months in August, 2012, it is necessary to establish a warning system for red tide that threatens the stable operation of the seawater desalination facility. A red tide warning system can offer the seawater desalination facility manager customized services on red tide information and potential red tide inflow to the water intake. This study aimed to develop a red tide warning system in Gwangyang Bay Area by combining RS, modeling and monitoring technologies, which provides red tide forecasting information with which to effectively control the seawater desalination process. Using the proposed system, the seawater desalination facility manager can take phased measures to cope with the inflow of red tide. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research was supported by a grant(16IFIP-C088924-03) from Industrial Facilities & Infrastructure Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(MOLIT) of the Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2014R1A1A2054975).

  18. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  19. Warning about the harms of tobacco use in 22 countries: findings from a cross-sectional household survey.

    PubMed

    Chiosi, John J; Andes, Linda; Asma, Samira; Palipudi, Krishna; McAfee, Tim

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge about the harms of tobacco use deters initiation and is associated with cessation. Most studies on this knowledge in the general population have been in high-income countries, but the tobacco use burden is increasing in low-income and middle-income countries. We sought to estimate levels of knowledge about tobacco-related diseases in 22 countries and determine the factors associated with differences in knowledge. We used data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS), a nationally representative survey of persons aged ≥15 years. GATSs were conducted from 2008 to 2013 in 22 low-income and middle-income countries. Information was gathered on tobacco-related knowledge and noticing of antismoking mass media messages and health warning labels on cigarette packages. We constructed a four-point knowledge scale and performed multivariate regression analyses. Median country values for the proportion of adults who believed smoking causes a specific illness were 95.9% for lung cancer, 82.5% for heart attack and 74.0% for stroke. Knowledge scores ranged from 2.1 to 3.8. In multivariate regressions, adults scored significantly higher on the knowledge scale if they noticed antismoking media messages (22 countries) or health warning labels (17 countries). Significantly higher knowledge scores occurred in all 9 countries with pictorial health warning labels compared with only 8 out of 13 countries with text-only warning labels. Antismoking media messages appear effective for warning the public about the harms from tobacco use in all 22 countries, while warning labels are effective in the majority of these countries. Our findings suggest opportunities to motivate smoking cessation globally. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  20. Volleyball Scoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calhoun, William; Dargahi-Noubary, G. R.; Shi, Yixun

    2002-01-01

    The widespread interest in sports in our culture provides an excellent opportunity to catch students' attention in mathematics and statistics classes. One mathematically interesting aspect of volleyball, which can be used to motivate students, is the scoring system. (MM)

  1. Prediction and warning system of SEP events and solar flares for risk estimation in space launch operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Rigo, Alberto; Núñez, Marlon; Qahwaji, Rami; Ashamari, Omar; Jiggens, Piers; Pérez, Gustau; Hernández-Pajares, Manuel; Hilgers, Alain

    2016-07-01

    A web-based prototype system for predicting solar energetic particle (SEP) events and solar flares for use by space launch operators is presented. The system has been developed as a result of the European Space Agency (ESA) project SEPsFLAREs (Solar Events Prediction system For space LAunch Risk Estimation). The system consists of several modules covering the prediction of solar flares and early SEP Warnings (labeled Warning tool), the prediction of SEP event occurrence and onset, and the prediction of SEP event peak and duration. In addition, the system acquires data for solar flare nowcasting from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based techniques (GNSS Solar Flare Detector, GSFLAD and the Sunlit Ionosphere Sudden Total Electron Content Enhancement Detector, SISTED) as additional independent products that may also prove useful for space launch operators.

  2. Robust range estimation with a monocular camera for vision-based forward collision warning system.

    PubMed

    Park, Ki-Yeong; Hwang, Sun-Young

    2014-01-01

    We propose a range estimation method for vision-based forward collision warning systems with a monocular camera. To solve the problem of variation of camera pitch angle due to vehicle motion and road inclination, the proposed method estimates virtual horizon from size and position of vehicles in captured image at run-time. The proposed method provides robust results even when road inclination varies continuously on hilly roads or lane markings are not seen on crowded roads. For experiments, a vision-based forward collision warning system has been implemented and the proposed method is evaluated with video clips recorded in highway and urban traffic environments. Virtual horizons estimated by the proposed method are compared with horizons manually identified, and estimated ranges are compared with measured ranges. Experimental results confirm that the proposed method provides robust results both in highway and in urban traffic environments.

  3. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Economou, T.; Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  4. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings.

    PubMed

    Economou, T; Stephenson, D B; Rougier, J C; Neal, R A; Mylne, K R

    2016-10-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.

  5. On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

    PubMed Central

    Stephenson, D. B.; Rougier, J. C.; Neal, R. A.; Mylne, K. R.

    2016-01-01

    Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings. PMID:27843399

  6. Warnings as a directive front-of-pack nutrition labelling scheme: comparison with the Guideline Daily Amount and traffic-light systems.

    PubMed

    Arrúa, Alejandra; Machín, Leandro; Curutchet, María Rosa; Martínez, Joseline; Antúnez, Lucía; Alcaire, Florencia; Giménez, Ana; Ares, Gastón

    2017-09-01

    Warnings have recently been proposed as a new type of directive front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labelling scheme to flag products with high content of key nutrients. In the present work, this system was compared with the two most common FOP nutrition labelling schemes (Guideline Daily Amounts (GDA) and traffic-light system) in terms of goal-directed attention, influence on perceived healthfulness and ability to differentiate between products. Design/Setting/Subjects Goal-directed attention to FOP labels was evaluated using a visual search task in which participants were presented with labels on a computer screen and were asked to indicate whether labels with high sodium content were present or absent. A survey with 387 participants was also carried out, in which the influence of FOP labels on perceived healthfulness and ability to identify the healthful alternative were evaluated. Warnings improved consumers' ability to correctly identify a product with high content of a key nutrient within a set of labels compared with GDA and received the highest goal-directed attention. In addition, products with high energy, saturated fat, sugar and/or sodium content that featured warnings on the label were perceived as less healthful than those featuring the GDA or traffic-light system. Warnings and the traffic-light system performed equally well in the identification of the most healthful product. Results from the present work suggest that warnings have potential as directive FOP nutrition labels to improve consumer ability to identify unhealthful products and highlight advantages compared with the traffic-light system.

  7. Four Signs Your District Is Ready for an Early Warning System. A Discussion Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Regional Educational Laboratory Pacific, 2016

    2016-01-01

    Although high school graduation rates continue to rise in the United States, reaching 81 percent in the 2012-2013 school year (U.S. Department of Education, 2015), dropout remains a pervasive issue for education systems across the nation. In recent years, Early Warning Systems (EWS), which utilize administrative data to identify students at risk…

  8. Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

    2013-10-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

  9. Indications and Warning Analysis Management System IWAMS. A Design Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    First, we must understand the process of warning analysis; we must develop an -;adequate functional model. In the present research we have divided ...and changeable). (In subsequent discussions, considerable attention will be focused on these issues.) -77-7-12Z ’m,77+-U 21 WARNING ANALYSIS MODEL...have charted limitations in man’s memory, attention span, reasoning capability and other cognitive functions. These limitations considerably affect man’s

  10. An Efficient Rapid Warning System For Earthquakes In The European-mediterranean Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; di Giovambattista, R.; Tome, M.

    Every year a few damaging earthquakes occur in the European-Mediterranean region. It is therefore indispensable to operate a real-time warning system in order to pro- vide rapidly reliable estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of these seismic events. In order to provide this information in a timely manner both to the scientific community and to the European and national authorities dealing with natural hazards and relief organisation, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) has federated a network of seismic networks exchanging their data in quasi real-time. Today, thanks to the Internet, the EMSC receives real-time information about earth- quakes from about thirty seismological institutes. As soon as data reach the EMSC, they are displayed on the EMSC Web pages (www.emsc-csem.org). A seismic alert is generated for any potentially damaging earthquake in the European-Mediterranean re- gion, potentially damaging earthquakes being defined as seismic events of magnitude 5 or more. The warning system automatically issues a message to the duty seismolo- gist mobile phone and pager. The seismologist log in to the EMSC computers using a laptop PC and relocates the earthquake by processing together all information pro- vided by the networks. The new location and magnitude are then send, by fax, telex, and email, within one hour following the earthquake occurrence, to national and inter- national organisations whose activities are related to seismic risks, and to the EMSC members. The EMSC rapid warning system has been fully operational for more than 4 years. Its distributed architecture has proved to be an efficient and reliable way for the monitoring of potentially damaging earthquakes. Furthermore, if a major problem disrupts the operational system more than 30 minutes, the duty is taken, over either by the Instituto Geografico National in Spain or by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica in Italy. The EMSC operational centre, located at the

  11. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  12. Multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system using Micro Air Vehicle for dangerous environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yanan; Wang, Xiaoxun; He, Chengcheng; Lai, Chenlong; Liu, Yuanchao

    2015-11-01

    For overcoming the problems such as remote operation and dangerous tasks, multi-terminal remote monitoring and warning system based on STC89C52 Micro Control Unit and wireless communication technique was proposed. The system with MCU as its core adopted multiple sets of sensor device to monitor environment parameters of different locations, such as temperature, humidity, smoke other harmful gas concentration. Data information collected was transmitted remotely by wireless transceiver module, and then multi-channel data parameter was processed and displayed through serial communication protocol between the module and PC. The results of system could be checked in the form of web pages within a local network which plays a wireless monitoring and warning role. In a remote operation, four-rotor micro air vehicle which fixed airborne data acquisition device was utilized as a middleware between collecting terminal and PC to increase monitoring scope. Whole test system has characteristics of simple construction, convenience, real time ability and high reliability, which could meet the requirements of actual use.

  13. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response. PMID:22745628

  14. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeeyon Janet; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2012-01-01

    Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984-1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  15. An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2010-12-01

    The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart

  16. Automated Safety Warning Controller (ASWC) Phase I - Proof of Concept

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2010-07-07

    Automated warning systems are not a new concept within the transportation community. There are several projects on the state highway that use the concept of a roadway sensor initiating some type of motorist warning. To date, all of these systems are ...

  17. Validation of a pediatric early warning system for hospitalized pediatric oncology patients in a resource-limited setting.

    PubMed

    Agulnik, Asya; Méndez Aceituno, Alejandra; Mora Robles, Lupe Nataly; Forbes, Peter W; Soberanis Vasquez, Dora Judith; Mack, Ricardo; Antillon-Klussmann, Federico; Kleinman, Monica; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos

    2017-12-15

    Pediatric oncology patients are at high risk of clinical deterioration, particularly in hospitals with resource limitations. The performance of pediatric early warning systems (PEWS) to identify deterioration has not been assessed in these settings. This study evaluates the validity of PEWS to predict the need for unplanned transfer to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) among pediatric oncology patients in a resource-limited hospital. A retrospective case-control study comparing the highest documented and corrected PEWS score before unplanned PICU transfer in pediatric oncology patients (129 cases) with matched controls (those not requiring PICU care) was performed. Documented and corrected PEWS scores were found to be highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer (area under the receiver operating characteristic, 0.940 and 0.930, respectively). PEWS scores increased 24 hours prior to unplanned transfer (P = .0006). In cases, organ dysfunction at the time of PICU admission correlated with maximum PEWS score (correlation coefficient, 0.26; P = .003), patients with PEWS results ≥4 had a higher Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM2) (P = .028), and PEWS results were higher in patients with septic shock (P = .01). The PICU mortality rate was 17.1%; nonsurvivors had higher mean PEWS scores before PICU transfer (P = .0009). A single-point increase in the PEWS score increased the odds of mechanical ventilation or vasopressors within the first 24 hours and during PICU admission (odds ratio 1.3-1.4). PEWS accurately predicted the need for unplanned PICU transfer in pediatric oncology patients in this resource-limited setting, with abnormal results beginning 24 hours before PICU admission and higher scores predicting the severity of illness at the time of PICU admission, need for PICU interventions, and mortality. These results demonstrate that PEWS aid in the identification of clinical deterioration in this high-risk population, regardless of a hospital

  18. An on-board pedestrian detection and warning system with features of side pedestrian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Ruzhong; Zhao, Yong; Wong, ChupChung; Chan, KwokPo; Xu, Jiayao; Wang, Xin'an

    2012-01-01

    Automotive Active Safety(AAS) is the main branch of intelligence automobile study and pedestrian detection is the key problem of AAS, because it is related with the casualties of most vehicle accidents. For on-board pedestrian detection algorithms, the main problem is to balance efficiency and accuracy to make the on-board system available in real scenes, so an on-board pedestrian detection and warning system with the algorithm considered the features of side pedestrian is proposed. The system includes two modules, pedestrian detecting and warning module. Haar feature and a cascade of stage classifiers trained by Adaboost are first applied, and then HOG feature and SVM classifier are used to refine false positives. To make these time-consuming algorithms available in real-time use, a divide-window method together with operator context scanning(OCS) method are applied to increase efficiency. To merge the velocity information of the automotive, the distance of the detected pedestrian is also obtained, so the system could judge if there is a potential danger for the pedestrian in the front. With a new dataset captured in urban environment with side pedestrians on zebra, the embedded system and its algorithm perform an on-board available result on side pedestrian detection.

  19. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2016-01-01

    A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  20. 30 CFR 75.1103-5 - Automatic fire warning devices; actions and response.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Automatic fire warning devices; actions and... Protection § 75.1103-5 Automatic fire warning devices; actions and response. (a) When the carbon monoxide... fire sensor and warning device systems shall provide an effective warning signal at the following...

  1. 30 CFR 75.1103-5 - Automatic fire warning devices; actions and response.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Automatic fire warning devices; actions and... Protection § 75.1103-5 Automatic fire warning devices; actions and response. (a) When the carbon monoxide... fire sensor and warning device systems shall provide an effective warning signal at the following...

  2. Novel approaches to helicopter obstacle warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seidel, Christian; Samuelis, Christian; Wegner, Matthias; Münsterer, Thomas; Rumpf, Thomas; Schwartz, Ingo

    2006-05-01

    EADS Germany is the world market leader in commercial Helicopter Laser Radar (HELLAS) Obstacle Warning Systems. The HELLAS-Warning System has been introduced into the market in 2000, is in service at German Border Control (Bundespolizei) and Royal Thai Airforce and is successfully evaluated by the Foreign Comparative Test Program (FCT) of the USSOCOM. Currently the successor system HELLAS-Awareness is in development. It will have extended sensor performance, enhanced realtime data processing capabilities and advanced HMI features. We will give an outline of the new sensor unit concerning detection technology and helicopter integration aspects. The system provides a widespread field of view with additional dynamic line of sight steering and a large detection range in combination with a high frame rate of 3Hz. The workflow of the data processing will be presented with focus on novel filter techniques and obstacle classification methods. As commonly known the former are indispensable due to unavoidable statistical measuring errors and solarisation. The amount of information in the filtered raw data is further reduced by ground segmentation. The remaining raised objects are extracted and classified in several stages into different obstacle classes. We will show the prioritization function which orders the obstacles concerning to their threat potential to the helicopter taking into account the actual flight dynamics. The priority of an object determines the display and provision of warnings to the pilot. Possible HMI representation includes video or FLIR overlay on multifunction displays, audio warnings and visualization of information on helmet mounted displays and digital maps. Different concepts will be presented.

  3. Introduction of structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Western Corridor Shenzhen Bay Bridge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, N.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhou, X. T.; Leng, J.; Liang, Z.; Zheng, C.; Sun, X. F.

    2008-03-01

    Though the brief introduction of the completed structural health and safety monitoring warning systems for Shenzhen-Hongkong western corridor Shenzhen bay highway bridge (SZBHMS), the self-developed system frame, hardware and software scheme of this practical research project are systematically discussed in this paper. The data acquisition and transmission hardware and the basic software based on the NI (National Instruments) Company virtual instruments technology were selected in this system, which adopted GPS time service receiver technology and so on. The objectives are to establish the structural safety monitoring and status evaluation system to monitor the structural responses and working conditions in real time and to analyze the structural working statue using information obtained from the measured data. It will be also provided the scientific decision-making bases for the bridge management and maintenance. Potential technical approaches to the structural safety warning systems, status identification and evaluation method are presented. The result indicated that the performance of the system has achieved the desired objectives, ensure the longterm high reliability, real time concurrence and advanced technology of SZBHMS. The innovate achievement which is the first time to implement in domestic, provide the reference for long-span bridge structural health and safety monitoring warning systems design.

  4. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and USPTO Rules of Professional Conduct...

  5. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  6. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  7. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and USPTO Rules of Professional Conduct...

  8. 37 CFR 11.21 - Warnings.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Warnings. 11.21 Section 11.21... Proceedings; Jurisdiction, Sanctions, Investigations, and Proceedings § 11.21 Warnings. A warning is neither... warning. The warning shall contain a brief statement of facts and Mandatory Disciplinary Rules identified...

  9. Airborne Wind Shear Detection and Warning Systems: Third Combined Manufacturers' and Technologists' Conference, part 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vicroy, Dan D. (Compiler); Bowles, Roland L. (Compiler); Schlickenmaier, Herbert (Compiler)

    1991-01-01

    Papers presented at the conference on airborne wind shear detection and warning systems are compiled. The following subject areas are covered: terms of reference; case study; flight management; sensor fusion and flight evaluation; Terminal Doppler Weather Radar data link/display; heavy rain aerodynamics; and second generation reactive systems.

  10. Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvello, M.; Piciullo, L.

    2015-10-01

    The paper proposes the evaluation of the technical performance of a regional landslide early warning system by means of an original approach, called EDuMaP method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the Events (E), i.e. landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a Duration Matrix (DuMa), whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model Performance (P) by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step, the analyst takes into account the features of the warning model by means of ten input parameters, which are used to identify and classify landslide and warning events according to their spatial and temporal characteristics. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix having a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The proposed method is based on a framework clearly distinguishing between local and regional landslide early warning systems as well as among correlation laws, warning models and warning systems. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warnings data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

  11. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

  12. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    PubMed Central

    Hanks, Thomas C.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information. PMID:29750190

  13. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  14. Robust Range Estimation with a Monocular Camera for Vision-Based Forward Collision Warning System

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We propose a range estimation method for vision-based forward collision warning systems with a monocular camera. To solve the problem of variation of camera pitch angle due to vehicle motion and road inclination, the proposed method estimates virtual horizon from size and position of vehicles in captured image at run-time. The proposed method provides robust results even when road inclination varies continuously on hilly roads or lane markings are not seen on crowded roads. For experiments, a vision-based forward collision warning system has been implemented and the proposed method is evaluated with video clips recorded in highway and urban traffic environments. Virtual horizons estimated by the proposed method are compared with horizons manually identified, and estimated ranges are compared with measured ranges. Experimental results confirm that the proposed method provides robust results both in highway and in urban traffic environments. PMID:24558344

  15. A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao

    2018-01-01

    This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

  16. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  17. A visually guided collision warning system with a neuromorphic architecture.

    PubMed

    Okuno, Hirotsugu; Yagi, Tetsuya

    2008-12-01

    We have designed a visually guided collision warning system with a neuromorphic architecture, employing an algorithm inspired by the visual nervous system of locusts. The system was implemented with mixed analog-digital integrated circuits consisting of an analog resistive network and field-programmable gate array (FPGA) circuits. The resistive network processes the interaction between the laterally spreading excitatory and inhibitory signals instantaneously, which is essential for real-time computation of collision avoidance with a low power consumption and a compact hardware. The system responded selectively to approaching objects of simulated movie images at close range. The system was, however, confronted with serious noise problems due to the vibratory ego-motion, when it was installed in a mobile miniature car. To overcome this problem, we developed the algorithm, which is also installable in FPGA circuits, in order for the system to respond robustly during the ego-motion.

  18. Preparing for floods: flood forecasting and early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning has continued to stride ahead in strengthening the preparedness phases of disaster risk management, saving lives and property and reducing the overall impact of severe flood events. For example, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems such as the European Flood Awareness System and the Global Flood Awareness System provide early information about upcoming floods in real time to various decisionmakers. Studies have found that there are monetary benefits to implementing these early flood warning systems, and with the science also in place to provide evidence of benefit and hydrometeorological institutional outlooks warming to the use of probabilistic forecasts, the uptake over the last decade has been rapid and sustained. However, there are many further challenges that lie ahead to improve the science supporting flood early warning and to ensure that appropriate decisions are made to maximise flood preparedness.

  19. Upgrading the Space Shuttle Caution and Warning System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCandless, Jeffrey W.; McCann, Robert S.; Hilty, Bruce T.

    2005-01-01

    A report describes the history and the continuing evolution of an avionic system aboard the space shuttle, denoted the caution and warning system, that generates visual and auditory displays to alert astronauts to malfunctions. The report focuses mainly on planned human-factors-oriented upgrades of an alphanumeric fault-summary display generated by the system. Such upgrades are needed because the display often becomes cluttered with extraneous messages that contribute to the difficulty of diagnosing malfunctions. In the first of two planned upgrades, the fault-summary display will be rebuilt with a more logical task-oriented graphical layout and multiple text fields for malfunction messages. In the second upgrade, information displayed will be changed, such that text fields will indicate only the sources (that is, root causes) of malfunctions; messages that are not operationally useful will no longer appear on the displays. These and other aspects of the upgrades are based on extensive collaboration among astronauts, engineers, and human-factors scientists. The report describes the human-factors principles applied in the upgrades.

  20. Warning Signs After Birth

    MedlinePlus

    ... Home > Pregnancy > Postpartum care > Warning signs after birth Warning signs after birth E-mail to a friend ... breast infection Postpartum bleeding Postpartum depression (PPD) What warning signs should you look for? Call your provider ...

  1. Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

  2. A Collaborative Approach to Flood Early Warning Systems In South East Westmoreland, Jamaica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hyman, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    Jamaica is prone to climatic, tectonic and technological hazards, with climatic hazards being the most prevalent. Specifically, flood events from cyclonic activity are the most common and widespread. Jamaica also experiences frequent flash floods, usually with insufficient lead time to enact efficient and targeted responses. On average, there is at least one disastrous flood every four years in Jamaica, and from 1800 to 2003 fifty-four major floods took place, causing 273 fatalities and economic losses of over US2 billion. Notably, the 1979 flood event in Western Jamaica caused 41 deaths and economic losses of US 27 Million, and which also has a 50 year return period. To date, no Flood Warning System exists in Western Jamaica and there are limited rain and river gauges. Additionally, responses to climatic events within South-East Westmoreland communities are ad hoc, with little coordination. Many of the hazard responses have been reactive and some stakeholders have delayed to their detriment.[1] The use of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) to address such challenges is thus an option being considered by the community associations. The Rio Cobre FEWS in the parish of St. Catherine serves as a best practice example of community driven flood warning systems in Jamaica. This is because of the collaborative approach to flood risk, strengthened by institutional arrangements between the Meteorological Service, Water Resources Authority, Office of Disaster Management, Scientists and residents of the surrounding communities. The Community Associations in South-East Westmoreland are thus desirous of implementing a FEWS similar to the Rio Cobre FEWS. This paper thus aims to analyse the implementation process in terms of key stakeholders involved, governance approach and the socio-economic impact of a collaborative approach on infrastructure and livelihoods, in the case of future flooding events. [1] (especially in the case of Hurricane Ivan 2004)

  3. Looming auditory collision warnings for driving.

    PubMed

    Gray, Rob

    2011-02-01

    A driving simulator was used to compare the effectiveness of increasing intensity (looming) auditory warning signals with other types of auditory warnings. Auditory warnings have been shown to speed driver reaction time in rear-end collision situations; however, it is not clear which type of signal is the most effective. Although verbal and symbolic (e.g., a car horn) warnings have faster response times than abstract warnings, they often lead to more response errors. Participants (N=20) experienced four nonlooming auditory warnings (constant intensity, pulsed, ramped, and car horn), three looming auditory warnings ("veridical," "early," and "late"), and a no-warning condition. In 80% of the trials, warnings were activated when a critical response was required, and in 20% of the trials, the warnings were false alarms. For the early (late) looming warnings, the rate of change of intensity signaled a time to collision (TTC) that was shorter (longer) than the actual TTC. Veridical looming and car horn warnings had significantly faster brake reaction times (BRT) compared with the other nonlooming warnings (by 80 to 160 ms). However, the number of braking responses in false alarm conditions was significantly greater for the car horn. BRT increased significantly and systematically as the TTC signaled by the looming warning was changed from early to veridical to late. Looming auditory warnings produce the best combination of response speed and accuracy. The results indicate that looming auditory warnings can be used to effectively warn a driver about an impending collision.

  4. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate

  5. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  6. GCRBS score: a new scoring system for predicting outcome in severe falciparum malaria.

    PubMed

    Mohapatra, Biranchi Narayan; Jangid, Sanjay Kumar; Mohanty, Rina

    2014-01-01

    Severe falciparum malaria is a critical illness resulting in multi-organ dysfunction and death. Severe malaria is defined by the World Health Organisation as a qualitative variable. The purpose of this study is to devise a scoring system for predicting outcome in severe falciparum malaria. 112 cases of severe falciparum malaria diagnosed as per the WHO criteria, were evaluated to determine the parameters which were significantly associated with mortality. Of all the parameters studied, five variables namely cerebral malaria (GCS < 11), Renal failure (Creatinine > 3 mg/dl), Respiratory distress (Respiratory rate > 24/min), Jaundice (Bilirubin >10 mg/dl) and Shock (Systolic BP < 90 mm of Hg) were all found to be associated with a poor prognosis. The five selected parameters were analysed using the Odds ratio and a new scoring system named as GCRBS score was designed with a possible score from 0-10. With a cut-off score of 5, the GCRBS score predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 85.3% and a specificity of 95.6%. The GCRBS score is easy to calculate and apply. Of the 5 parameters, 3 are clinical which can be determined at bedside and only 2 are biochemical which can be done in any laboratory.The most important advantage of this scoring system is that all the 5 parameters are to be assessed quantitatively for allotting a score, which would eliminate the possibility of observer bias.

  7. Driving with a partially autonomous forward collision warning system: how do drivers react?

    PubMed

    Muhrer, Elke; Reinprecht, Klaus; Vollrath, Mark

    2012-10-01

    The effects of a forward collision warning (FCW) and braking system (FCW+) were examined in a driving simulator study analyzing driving and gaze behavior and the engagement in a secondary task. In-depth accident analyses indicate that a lack of appropriate expectations for possible critical situations and visual distraction may be the major causes of rear-end crashes. Studies with FCW systems have shown that a warning alone was not enough for a driver to be able to avoid the accident. Thus,an additional braking intervention by such systems could be necessary. In a driving simulator experiment, 30 drivers took part in a car-following scenario in an urban area. It was assumed that different lead car behaviors and environmental aspects would lead to different drivers' expectations of the future traffic situation. Driving with and without FCW+ was introduced as a between-subjects factor. Driving with FCW+ resulted in significantly fewer accidents in critical situations. This result was achieved by the system's earlier reaction time as compared with that of drivers. The analysis of the gaze behavior showed that driving with the system did not lead to a stronger involvement in secondary tasks. The study supports the hypotheses about the importance of missing expectations for the occurrence of accidents. These accidents can be prevented by an FCW+ that brakes autonomously. The results indicate that an autonomous braking intervention should be implemented in FCW systems to increase the effectiveness of these assistance systems.

  8. Heatwave early warning systems and adaptation advice to reduce human health consequences of heatwaves.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Dianne; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

    2011-12-01

    With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS). HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.

  9. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  10. National High School Center Early Warning System Tool v2.0: Technical Manual

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National High School Center, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0 is a Microsoft Excel-based tool developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research in collaboration with Matrix Knowledge Group. The tool enables schools, districts, and states to identify students who may be at risk of dropping out of high school and to monitor these…

  11. Application of a Tsunami Warning Message Metric to refine NOAA NWS Tsunami Warning Messages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, C. E.; Johnston, D.; Sorensen, J.; Whitmore, P.

    2013-12-01

    In 2010, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) funded a three year project to integrate social science into their Tsunami Program. One of three primary requirements of the grant was to make improvements to tsunami warning messages of the NWS' two Tsunami Warning Centers- the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) in Palmer, Alaska and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. We conducted focus group meetings with a purposive sample of local, state and Federal stakeholders and emergency managers in six states (AK, WA, OR, CA, HI and NC) and two US Territories (US Virgin Islands and American Samoa) to qualitatively asses information needs in tsunami warning messages using WCATWC tsunami messages for the March 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami event. We also reviewed research literature on behavioral response to warnings to develop a tsunami warning message metric that could be used to guide revisions to tsunami warning messages of both warning centers. The message metric is divided into categories of Message Content, Style, Order and Formatting and Receiver Characteristics. A message is evaluated by cross-referencing the message with the operational definitions of metric factors. Findings are then used to guide revisions of the message until the characteristics of each factor are met. Using findings from this project and findings from a parallel NWS Warning Tiger Team study led by T. Nicolini, the WCATWC implemented the first of two phases of revisions to their warning messages in November 2012. A second phase of additional changes, which will fully implement the redesign of messages based on the metric, is in progress. The resulting messages will reflect current state-of-the-art knowledge on warning message effectiveness. Here we present the message metric; evidence-based rational for message factors; and examples of previous, existing and proposed messages.

  12. Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

    2017-03-02

    The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable.

  13. Research and Application of an Air Quality Early Warning System Based on a Modified Least Squares Support Vector Machine and a Cloud Model

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianzhou; Niu, Tong; Wang, Rui

    2017-01-01

    The worsening atmospheric pollution increases the necessity of air quality early warning systems (EWSs). Despite the fact that a massive amount of investigation about EWS in theory and practicality has been conducted by numerous researchers, studies concerning the quantification of uncertain information and comprehensive evaluation are still lacking, which impedes further development in the area. In this paper, firstly a comprehensive warning system is proposed, which consists of two vital indispensable modules, namely effective forecasting and scientific evaluation, respectively. For the forecasting module, a novel hybrid model combining the theory of data preprocessing and numerical optimization is first developed to implement effective forecasting for air pollutant concentration. Especially, in order to further enhance the accuracy and robustness of the warning system, interval forecasting is implemented to quantify the uncertainties generated by forecasts, which can provide significant risk signals by using point forecasting for decision-makers. For the evaluation module, a cloud model, based on probability and fuzzy set theory, is developed to perform comprehensive evaluations of air quality, which can realize the transformation between qualitative concept and quantitative data. To verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the warning system, extensive simulations based on air pollutants data from Dalian in China were effectively implemented, which illustrate that the warning system is not only remarkably high-performance, but also widely applicable. PMID:28257122

  14. Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put

  15. Hydrologic ensembles based on convection-permitting precipitation nowcasts for flash flood warnings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; de Saint Aubin, Céline; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    In order to better anticipate flash flood events and provide timely warnings to communities at risk, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting (SCHAPI) is implementing a national flash flood warning system for small-to-medium ungauged basins. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014), the current version of the system runs a simplified hourly distributed hydrologic model with operational radar-gauge QPE grids from Météo-France at a 1-km2 resolution every 15 minutes. This produces real-time peak discharge estimates along the river network, which are subsequently compared to regionalized flood frequency estimates to provide warnings according to the AIGA-estimated return period of the ongoing event. To further extend the effective warning lead time while accounting for hydrometeorological uncertainties, the flash flood warning system is being enhanced to include Météo-France's AROME-NWC high-resolution precipitation nowcasts as time-lagged ensembles and multiple sets of hydrological regionalized parameters. The operational deterministic precipitation forecasts, from the nowcasting version of the AROME convection-permitting model (Auger et al. 2015), were provided at a 2.5-km resolution for a 6-hr forecast horizon for 9 significant rain events from September 2014 to June 2016. The time-lagged approach is a practical choice of accounting for the atmospheric forecast uncertainty when no extensive forecast archive is available for statistical modelling. The evaluation on 781 French basins showed significant improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead-time, compared to warnings from the current AIGA setup (without any future precipitation). We also discuss how to effectively communicate verification information to help determine decision-relevant warning thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D., Arnaud, P., 2014. Evaluating

  16. Using an automated speed, steering, and gap control system and a collision warning system when driving in clear visibility and in fog

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1998-04-01

    The effect on driving performance of using a speed, steering, and gap control system (SSGCS) and a collision warning system (CWS) was assessed in an experiment conducted in the Iowa Driving Simulator. Driving performance data were obtained from 52 dr...

  17. A survey of the status of and philosophies relating to cockpit warning systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, G. E.

    1977-01-01

    A survey was taken to study current cockpit caution and warning (c/w) systems, and to examine industry philosophies regarding c/w system design including current efforts to improve them. Guidelines currently in use were outlined and those which appear to have general acceptance, those which are considered ineffective or erroneous, and those with which there is broad disagreement as to validity, were delineated. Major airplane manufacturerd were surveyed and a manufacturer dealing specifically with aircraft instrumentation was consulted.

  18. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

    PubMed

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

    2017-12-01

    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  19. Warning Signs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Our Children, 1999

    1999-01-01

    Presents various signs that may indicate emotional problems in children or teens, noting that if children exhibit any of the warning signs, it is important to talk to a doctor, counselor, or mental-health professional. The warning signs are categorized as things that trouble the child, things that limit the child, behavior problems, and sudden…

  20. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keefer, D.K.; Wilson, R.C.; Mark, R.K.; Brabb, E.E.; Brown, W. M.; Ellen, S.D.; Harp, E.L.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Alger, C.S.; Zatkin, R.S.

    1987-01-01

    A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional developments are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

  1. The R.I.R.S. scoring system: An innovative scoring system for predicting stone-free rate following retrograde intrarenal surgery.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yinglong; Li, Deng; Chen, Lei; Xu, Yaoting; Zhang, Dingguo; Shao, Yi; Lu, Jun

    2017-11-21

    To establish and internally validate an innovative R.I.R.S. scoring system that allows urologists to preoperatively estimate the stone-free rate (SFR) after retrograde intrarenal surgery (RIRS). This study included 382 eligible samples from a total 573 patients who underwent RIRS from January 2014 to December 2016. Four reproducible factors in the R.I.R.S. scoring system, including renal stone density, inferior pole stone, renal infundibular length and stone burden, were measured based on preoperative computed tomography of urography to evaluate the possibility of stone clearance after RIRS. The median cumulative diameter of the stones was 14 mm, and the interquartile range was 10 to 21. The SFR on postoperative day 1 in the present cohort was 61.5% (235 of 382), and the final SFR after 1 month was 73.6% (281 of 382). We established an innovative scoring system to evaluate SFR after RIRS using four preoperative characteristics. The range of the R.I.R.S. scoring system was 4 to 10. The overall score showed a great significance of stone-free status (p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the R.I.R.S. scoring system was 0.904. The R.I.R.S. scoring system is associated with SFR after RIRS. This innovative scoring system can preoperatively assess treatment success after intrarenal surgery and can be used for preoperative surgical arrangement and comparisons of outcomes among different centers and within a center over time.

  2. A comparison of three developmental stage scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Dawson, Theo Linda

    2002-01-01

    In social psychological research the stage metaphor has fallen into disfavor due to concerns about bias, reliability, and validity. To address some of these issues, I employ a multidimensional partial credit analysis comparing moral judgment interviews scored with the Standard Issue Scoring System (SISS) (Colby and Kohlberg, 1987b), evaluative reasoning interviews scored with the Good Life Scoring System (GLSS) (Armon, 1984b), and Good Education interviews scored with the Hierarchical Complexity Scoring System (HCSS) (Commons, Danaher, Miller, and Dawson, 2000). A total of 209 participants between the ages of 5 and 86 were interviewed. The multidimensional model reveals that even though the scoring systems rely upon different criteria and the data were collected using different methods and scored by different teams of raters, the SISS, GLSS, and HCSS all appear to measure the same latent variable. The HCSS exhibits more internal consistency than the SISS and GLSS, and solves some methodological problems introduced by the content dependency of the SISS and GLSS. These results and their implications are elaborated.

  3. Peritumoral Artery Scoring System: a Novel Scoring System to Predict Renal Function Outcome after Laparoscopic Partial Nephrectomy.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ruiyun; Wu, Guangyu; Huang, Jiwei; Shi, Oumin; Kong, Wen; Chen, Yonghui; Xu, Jianrong; Xue, Wei; Zhang, Jin; Huang, Yiran

    2017-06-06

    The present study aimed to assess the impact of peritumoral artery characteristics on renal function outcome prediction using a novel Peritumoral Artery Scoring System based on computed tomography arteriography. Peritumoral artery characteristics and renal function were evaluated in 220 patients who underwent laparoscopic partial nephrectomy and then validate in 51 patients with split and total glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In particular, peritumoral artery classification and diameter were measured to assign arteries into low, moderate, and high Peritumoral Artery Scoring System risk categories. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were then used to determine risk factors for major renal functional decline. The Peritumoral Artery Scoring System and four other nephrometry systems were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The Peritumoral Artery Scoring System was significantly superior to the other systems for predicting postoperative renal function decline (p < 0.001). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, our category system was a superior independent predictor of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.865, p < 0.001) and total GFR decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.796, p < 0.001), and split GFR decline (area-under-the-curve = 0.841, p < 0.001). Peritumoral artery characteristics were independent predictors of renal function outcome after laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.

  4. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  5. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  6. The impact of false warnings on partial and full lane departure warnings effectiveness and acceptance in car driving.

    PubMed

    Navarro, Jordan; Yousfi, Elsa; Deniel, Jonathan; Jallais, Christophe; Bueno, Mercedes; Fort, Alexandra

    2016-12-01

    In the past, lane departure warnings (LDWs) were demonstrated to improve driving behaviours during lane departures but little is known about the effects of unreliable warnings. This experiment focused on the influence of false warnings alone or in combination with missed warnings and warning onset on assistance effectiveness and acceptance. Two assistance unreliability levels (33 and 17%) and two warning onsets (partial and full lane departure) were manipulated in order to investigate interaction. Results showed that assistance, regardless unreliability levels and warning onsets, improved driving behaviours during lane departure episodes and outside of these episodes by favouring better lane-keeping performances. Full lane departure and highly unreliable warnings, however, reduced assistance efficiency. Drivers' assistance acceptance was better for the most reliable warnings and for the subsequent warnings. The data indicate that imperfect LDWs (false warnings or false and missed warnings) further improve driving behaviours compared to no assistance. Practitioner Summary: This study revealed that imperfect lane departure warnings are able to significantly improve driving performances and that warning onset is a key element for assistance effectiveness and acceptance. The conclusion may be of particular interest for lane departure warning designers.

  7. Can Percentiles Replace Raw Scores in the Statistical Analysis of Test Data?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zimmerman, Donald W.; Zumbo, Bruno D.

    2005-01-01

    Educational and psychological testing textbooks typically warn of the inappropriateness of performing arithmetic operations and statistical analysis on percentiles instead of raw scores. This seems inconsistent with the well-established finding that transforming scores to ranks and using nonparametric methods often improves the validity and power…

  8. Effectiveness of FDA's new over-the-counter acetaminophen warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage.

    PubMed

    Goyal, R K; Rajan, S S; Essien, E J; Sansgiry, S S

    2012-12-01

    The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued new organ-specific warning label requirements for over-the-counter (OTC) analgesic products in order to make consumers aware of the risk of liver damage when using acetaminophen. However, awareness of a health risk alone cannot ensure consumers' engagement in safe and preventive behaviour. In this study, we attempted to: (i) measure consumer risk perception of liver damage due to the OTC acetaminophen products and (ii) analyse the effectiveness of the new organ-specific warning label in improving consumer risk perception of liver damage and intention to perform protective behaviours while using OTC acetaminophen products. This within-subject experimental study used a convenience sample of English-speaking adults visiting OTC segments of selected pharmacy stores in Houston. Participants were randomly exposed to the old and new warning labels and their respective risk perception (measured on a visual analogue scale, 0%, no risk, to 100%, extreme risk) and behavioural intention (measured on a 7-point Likert scale) were recorded using a validated, self-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics and non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were performed using sas statistical software (v 9.2) at a priori significance level of 0.05. Majority of participants (74.4%) were not aware of the new warnings; however, majority (67.8%) had prior knowledge of the risk. The mean risk perception score for the new warning label was found to be significantly higher (72.2% vs. 65.9%, P < 0.0001) than the old warning label. Similarly, the average intention score for the new warning label was significantly higher (5.06 vs. 4.86, P < 0.0001) than the old warning label. The new warning label mandated by FDA is effective in improving consumer risk perception of potential liver damage and may encourage protective behaviour. However, future studies are essential to assess the impact of the new label on actual changes in consumer behaviour

  9. A diagnostic scoring system for myxedema coma.

    PubMed

    Popoveniuc, Geanina; Chandra, Tanu; Sud, Anchal; Sharma, Meeta; Blackman, Marc R; Burman, Kenneth D; Mete, Mihriye; Desale, Sameer; Wartofsky, Leonard

    2014-08-01

    To develop diagnostic criteria for myxedema coma (MC), a decompensated state of extreme hypothyroidism with a high mortality rate if untreated, in order to facilitate its early recognition and treatment. The frequencies of characteristics associated with MC were assessed retrospectively in patients from our institutions in order to derive a semiquantitative diagnostic point scale that was further applied on selected patients whose data were retrieved from the literature. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the predictive power of the score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to test the discriminative power of the score. Of the 21 patients examined, 7 were reclassified as not having MC (non-MC), and they were used as controls. The scoring system included a composite of alterations of thermoregulatory, central nervous, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and metabolic systems, and presence or absence of a precipitating event. All 14 of our MC patients had a score of ≥60, whereas 6 of 7 non-MC patients had scores of 25 to 50. A total of 16 of 22 MC patients whose data were retrieved from the literature had a score ≥60, and 6 of 22 of these patients scored between 45 and 55. The odds ratio per each score unit increase as a continuum was 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.16; P = .019); a score of 60 identified coma, with an odds ratio of 1.22. The area under the ROC curve was 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65 to 1.00), and the score of 60 had 100% sensitivity and 85.71% specificity. A score ≥60 in the proposed scoring system is potentially diagnostic for MC, whereas scores between 45 and 59 could classify patients at risk for MC.

  10. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  11. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-10-01

    Landslide early warning systems (EWSs) have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established) and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  12. Idaho storm warning system operational test : final report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2000-12-01

    The Storm Warning Project was initiated in 1993 as a result of a large number of serious traffic crashes that occurred during periods of low visibility on I-84 in southeastern Idaho between 1988 and 1993. The purpose of the project was to determine i...

  13. Enhanced communication and coordination in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System.

    PubMed

    Dangel, Chrissy; Allgeier, Steven C; Gibbons, Darcy; Haas, Adam; Simon, Katie

    2012-03-01

    Effective communication and coordination are critical when investigating a possible drinking water contamination incident. A contamination warning system is designed to detect water contamination by initiating a coordinated, effective response to mitigate significant public health and economic consequences. This article describes historical communication barriers during water contamination incidents and discusses how these barriers were overcome through the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Drinking Water Contamination Warning System, referred to as the "Cincinnati Pilot." By enhancing partnerships in the public health surveillance component of the Cincinnati Pilot, information silos that existed in each organization were replaced with interagency information depots that facilitated effective decision making.

  14. Thunderstorm monitoring and lightning warning, operational applications of the Safir system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richard, Philippe

    1991-01-01

    During the past years a new range of studies have been opened by the application of electromagnetic localization techniques to the field of thunderstorm remote sensing. VHF localization techniques were used in particular for the analysis of lightning discharges and gave access to time resolved 3-D images of lightning discharges within thunderclouds. Detection and localization techniques developed have been applied to the design of the SAFIR system. This development's main objective was the design of an operational system capable of assessing and warning in real time for lightning hazards and potential thunderstorm hazards. The SAFIR system main detection technique is the long range interferometric localization of thunderstorm electromagnetic activity; the system performs the localization of intracloud and cloud to ground lightning discharges and the analysis of the characteristics of the activity.

  15. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  16. Operational Tsunami Modelling with TsunAWI for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System: Recent Developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rakowsky, N.; Harig, S.; Androsov, A.; Fuchs, A.; Immerz, A.; Schröter, J.; Hiller, W.

    2012-04-01

    Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. Numerical simulations of prototypic tsunami scenarios play a decisive role in a priori risk assessment for coastal regions and in the early warning process itself. Repositories with currently 3470 regional tsunami scenarios for GITEWS and 1780 Indian Ocean wide scenarios in support of Indonesia as a Regional Tsunami Service Provider (RTSP) were computed with the non-linear shallow water modell TsunAWI. It is based on a finite element discretisation, employs unstructured grids with high resolution along the coast and includes inundation. This contribution gives an overview on the model itself, the enhancement of the model physics, and the experiences gained during the process of establishing an operational code suited for thousands of model runs. Technical aspects like computation time, disk space needed for each scenario in the repository, or post processing techniques have a much larger impact than they had in the beginning when TsunAWI started as a research code. Of course, careful testing on artificial benchmarks and real events remains essential, but furthermore, quality control for the large number of scenarios becomes an important issue.

  17. Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

    2017-04-01

    An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

  18. Developing the Framework for an Early Warning System for Ebola based on Environmental Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dartevelle, Sebastien; Nguy-Robertson, Anthony; Bell, Jesse; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2017-04-01

    The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa indicated that this lethal disease can become a National Security issue as it crossed boarders and taxed regional health care systems. Ebola symptoms are also similar to other endemic diseases. Thus, forewarning of its possible presence can alert local public health facilities and populations, and may thereby reduce response time. Early work by our group has identified local climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and vegetation health (e.g. remote sensing using normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) variables as leading indicators to known historical Ebola outbreaks. The environmental stress placed on the system as it reaches a climatic tipping point provides optimal conditions for spillover of Ebola virus from the reservoir host (which is unknown but suspected to be bats) to humans. This work outlines a framework for an approach to provide early warning maps based on the present state of the environment. Time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors are the basis for the early warning models used. These maps can provide policy makers and local health care professionals timely information for disease surveillance and preparation for future Ebola outbreaks.

  19. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adaption in National Early Warning Alerting Systems of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Chao

    2017-04-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) [2]project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] http://www.12379.cn/

  20. Adapting the EDuMaP method to test the performance of the Norwegian early warning system for weather-induced landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piciullo, Luca; Dahl, Mads-Peter; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-06-01

    The Norwegian national landslide early warning system (LEWS), operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and was designed for monitoring and forecasting the hydrometeorological conditions potentially triggering slope failures. Decision-making in the LEWS is based upon rainfall thresholds, hydrometeorological and real-time landslide observations as well as on landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable size warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days and can be updated according to weather forecasts and information gathered by the monitoring network. The performance of the LEWS operational in Norway has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method, which is based on the computation of a duration matrix relating number of landslides and warning levels issued in a warning zone. In the past, this method has been exclusively employed to analyse the performance of regional early warning models considering fixed warning zones. Herein, an original approach is proposed for the computation of the elements of the duration matrix in the case of early warning models issuing alerts on variable size areas. The approach has been used to evaluate the warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014, considering two datasets of landslides. The results indicate that the landslide datasets do not significantly influence the performance evaluation, although a slightly better performance is registered for the smallest dataset. Different performance results are observed as a function of the values adopted for one of the most important input parameters of EDuMaP, the landslide density criterion (i.e. setting the thresholds to differentiate among classes of landslide events). To investigate this issue, a parametric analysis has been conducted; the results of the analysis show significant differences among computed performances when

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