Evaluation of solar irradiance models for climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William; Yeo, Kok-Leng; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami; Unruh, Yvonne; Morrill, Jeff

2015-04-01

Instruments on satellites have been observing both Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Spectral Solar Irradiance (SSI), mainly in the ultraviolet (UV), since 1978. Models were developed to reproduce the observed variability and to compute the variability at wavelengths that were not observed or had an uncertainty too high to determine an accurate rotational or solar cycle variability. However, various models and measurements show different solar cycle SSI variability that lead to different modelled responses of ozone and temperature in the stratosphere, mainly due to the different UV variability in each model, and the global energy balance. The NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models are the most comprehensive reconstructions of solar irradiance variability for the period from 1978 to the present day. But while NRLSSI and SATIRE-S show similar solar cycle variability below 250 nm, between 250 and 400 nm SATIRE-S typically displays 50% larger variability, which is however, still significantly less then suggested by recent SORCE data. Due to large uncertainties and inconsistencies in some observational datasets, it is difficult to determine in a simple way which model is likely to be closer to the true solar variability. We review solar irradiance variability measurements and modelling and employ new analysis that sheds light on the causes of the discrepancies between the two models and with the observations.

Measurements and Modeling of Total Solar Irradiance in X-class Solar Flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Christopher S.; Chamberlin, Phillip Clyde; Hock, Rachel

2014-01-01

The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) from NASA's SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment can detect changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) to a precision of 2 ppm, allowing observations of variations due to the largest X-class solar flares for the first time. Presented here is a robust algorithm for determining the radiative output in the TIM TSI measurements, in both the impulsive and gradual phases, for the four solar flares presented in Woods et al., as well as an additional flare measured on 2006 December 6. The radiative outputs for both phases of these five flares are then compared to the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance output from the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) in order to derive an empirical relationship between the FISM VUV model and the TIM TSI data output to estimate the TSI radiative output for eight other X-class flares. This model provides the basis for the bolometric energy estimates for the solar flares analyzed in the Emslie et al. study.

Slow Solar Wind: Observations and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbo, L.; Ofman, L.; Antiochos, S. K.; Hansteen, V. H.; Harra, L.; Ko, Y.-K.; Lapenta, G.; Li, B.; Riley, P.; Strachan, L.;

A model for solar constant secular changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth H.

1988-01-01

In this paper, contrast models for solar active region and global photospheric features are used to reproduce the observed Active Cavity Radiometer and Earth Radiation Budget secular trends in reasonably good fashion. A prediction for the next decade of solar constant variations is made using the model. Secular trends in the solar constant obtained from the present model support the view that the Maunder Minimum may be related to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century.

Modelling total solar irradiance using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Jiang, Jie; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami

2014-05-01

Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are of considerable interest for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field have been the most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these. It uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. Thus, to reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. To describe the secular change in the irradiance, we used the concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles. With this technique TSI can be reconstructed back to 1700.

Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.

2004-01-01

A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

Extrapolating Solar Dynamo Models Throughout the Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, B. T.; Miesch, M. S.; Augustson, K.; Featherstone, N. A.

2014-12-01

There are multiple theories that aim to explain the behavior of the solar dynamo, and their associated models have been fiercely contested. The two prevailing theories investigated in this project are the Convective Dynamo model that arises from the pure solving of the magnetohydrodynamic equations, as well as the Babcock-Leighton model that relies on sunspot dissipation and reconnection. Recently, the supercomputer simulations CASH and BASH have formed models of the behavior of the Convective and Babcock-Leighton models, respectively, in the convective zone of the sun. These models show the behavior of the models within the sun, while much less is known about the effects these models may have further away from the solar surface. The goal of this work is to investigate any fundamental differences between the Convective and Babcock-Leighton models of the solar dynamo outside of the sun and extending into the solar system via the use of potential field source surface extrapolations implemented via python code that operates on data from CASH and BASH. The use of real solar data to visualize supergranular flow data in the BASH model is also used to learn more about the behavior of the Babcock-Leighton Dynamo. From the process of these extrapolations it has been determined that the Babcock-Leighton model, as represented by BASH, maintains complex magnetic fields much further into the heliosphere before reverting into a basic dipole field, providing 3D visualisations of the models distant from the sun.

Toward Improved Modeling of Spectral Solar Irradiance for Solar Energy Applications: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to extend the capability of the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) by computing spectral solar irradiances over both horizontal and inclined surfaces. A new model is developed by computing the optical thickness of the atmosphere using a spectral irradiance model for clear-sky conditions, SMARTS2. A comprehensive lookup table (LUT) of cloud bidirectional transmittance distribution functions (BTDFs) is precomputed for 2002 wavelength bands using an atmospheric radiative transfer model, libRadtran. The solar radiation transmitted through the atmosphere is given by considering all possible paths of photon transmissionmore » and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. Our results indicate that this new model has an accuracy that is similar to that of state-of-the-art radiative transfer models, but it is significantly more efficient.« less

FIRST NEW SOLAR MODELS WITH OPAS OPACITY TABLES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Pennec, M.; Turck-Chièze, S.; Salmon, S.

Stellar seismology appears more and more as a powerful tool for a better determination of the fundamental properties of solar-type stars. However, the particular case of the Sun is still challenging. For about a decade now, the helioseismic sound-speed determination has continued to disagree with the standard solar model (SSM) prediction, questioning the reliability of this model. One of the sources of uncertainty could be in the treatment of the transport of radiation from the solar core to the surface. In this Letter, we use the new OPAS opacity tables, recently available for solar modeling, to address this issue. Wemore » discuss first the peculiarities of these tables, then we quantify their impact on the solar sound-speed and density profiles using the reduced OPAS tables taken on the grids of the OPAL ones. We use the two evolution codes, Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics and Code Liégeois d’Evolution Stellaire, that led to similar conclusions in the solar radiative zone. In comparison to commonly used OPAL opacity tables, the new solar models are computed for the most recent photospheric composition with OPAS tables and present improvements to the location of the base of the convective zone and to the description of the solar radiative zone in comparison to the helioseismic observations, even if the differences in the Rosseland mean opacity do not exceed 6%. We finally carry out a comparison to a solar model computed with the OP opacity tables.« less

Solar energy market penetration models - Science or number mysticism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, E. H., Jr.

1980-01-01

The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.

Modeling of the Electric Characteristics of Solar Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, Benjamin; Tzolov, Marian

The purpose of a solar cell is to covert solar energy, through means of photovoltaic action, into a sustainable electrical current that produces usable electricity. The electrical characteristics of solar cells can be modeled to better understand how they function. As an electrical device, solar cells can be conveniently represented as an equivalent electrical circuit with an ideal diode, ideal current source for the photovoltaic action, a shunt resistor for recombination, a resistor in series to account for contact resistance, and a resistor modeling external power consumption. The values of these elements have been modified to model dark and illumination states. Fitting the model to the experimental current voltage characteristics allows to determine the values of the equivalent circuit elements. Comparing values of open circuit voltage, short circuit current, and shunt resistor can determine factors such as the amount of recombination to diagnose problems in solar cells. The many measurable quantities of a solar cell's characteristics give guidance for the design when they are related with microscopic processes.

Solar Measurement and Modeling | Grid Modernization | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Energy SunShot Initiative by improving the tools and methods that measure solar radiation to reduce and disseminate accurate solar measurement and modeling methods, best practices and standards, and Normal Irradiance Measurements, Solar Energy (2016) Radiometer Calibration Methods and Resulting

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ronnie J.

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suggs, Ron

2017-01-01

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar web page and are updated as new monthly observations become available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to calculate the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 9 monthly observations from the start of the cycle are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum.

Comprehensive silicon solar-cell computer modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamorte, M. F.

1984-01-01

A comprehensive silicon solar cell computer modeling scheme was developed to perform the following tasks: (1) model and analysis of the net charge distribution in quasineutral regions; (2) experimentally determined temperature behavior of Spire Corp. n+pp+ solar cells where n+-emitter is formed by ion implantation of 75As or 31P; and (3) initial validation results of computer simulation program using Spire Corp. n+pp+ cells.

Numerical modelling of CIGS/CdS solar cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devi, Nisha; Aziz, Anver; Datta, Shouvik

2018-05-01

In this work, we design and analyze the Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGS) solar cell using simulation software "Solar Cell Capacitance Simulator in One Dimension (SCAPS-1D)". The conventional CIGS solar cell uses various layers, like intrinsic ZnO/Aluminium doped ZnO as transparent oxide, antireflection layer MgF2, and electron back reflection (EBR) layer at CIGS/Mo interface for good power conversion efficiency. We replace this conventional model by a simple model which is easy to fabricate and also reduces the cost of this cell because of use of lesser materials. The new designed model of CIGS solar cell is ITO/CIGS/OVC/CdS/Metal contact, where OVC is ordered vacancy compound. From this simple structure, even at very low illumination we are getting good results. We simulate this CIGS solar cell model by varying various physical parameters of CIGS like thickness, carrier density, band gap and temperature.

Modelling rotational and cyclical spectral solar irradiance variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, Yvonne

Solar irradiance changes are highly wavelength dependent: solar-cycle variations in the UV can be on the order of tens of percent, while changes in the visible are typically only of the order of one or two permille. With the launch of a number of instruments to measure spectral solar irradiance, we are now for a first time in a good position to explore the changing solar irradiance over a large range of wavelengths and to test our irradiance models as well as some of their underlying assumptions. I will introduce some of the current modelling approaches and present model-data comparisons, using the SATIRE irradiance model and SORCE/SIM measurements as an example. I will conclude by highlighting a number of outstanding questions regarding the modelling of spectral irradiance and current approaches to address these.

Probalistic Models for Solar Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Xapsos, Michael

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to describe the radiation environment that can be expected at a specified confidence level. The task of the designer is then to choose a design that will operate in the model radiation environment. Probabilistic models have already been developed for solar proton events that describe the peak flux, event-integrated fluence and missionintegrated fluence. In addition a probabilistic model has been developed that describes the mission-integrated fluence for the Z>2 elemental spectra. This talk will focus on completing this suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 element

Considering Planetary Constraints and Dynamic Screening in Solar Evolution Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Suzannah R.; Mussack, Katie; Guzik, Joyce A.

2018-01-01

The ‘faint early sun problem’ remains unsolved. This problem consists of the apparent contradiction between the standard solar model prediction of lower luminosity (70% of current luminosity) and the observations of liquid water on early Earth and Mars. The presence of liquid water on early Earth and Mars should not be neglected and should be used as a constraint for solar evolution modeling. In addition, modifications to standard solar models are needed to address the discrepancy with solar structure inferred from helioseismology given the latest solar abundance determinations. Here, we will utilize the three different solar abundances: GN93 (Grevesse & Noels, 1993), AGS05 (Asplund et al., 2005), AGSS09 (Asplund et al., 2009). Here, we propose an early mass loss model with an initial solar mass between 1.07 and 1.15 solar masses and an exponentially decreasing mass-loss rate to meet conditions in the early solar system (Wood et al, submitted). Additionally, we investigate the effects of dynamic screening and the new OPLIB opacities from Los Alamos (Colgan et al., 2016). We show the effects of these modifications to the standard solar evolution models on the interior structure, neutrino fluxes, sound speed, p-mode frequencies, convection zone depth, and envelope helium and element abundance of the model sun at the present day.

MODIS Solar Diffuser: Modelled and Actual Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waluschka, Eugene; Xiong, Xiao-Xiong; Esposito, Joe; Wang, Xin-Dong; Krebs, Carolyn (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument's solar diffuser is used in its radiometric calibration for the reflective solar bands (VIS, NTR, and SWIR) ranging from 0.41 to 2.1 micron. The sun illuminates the solar diffuser either directly or through a attenuation screen. The attenuation screen consists of a regular array of pin holes. The attenuated illumination pattern on the solar diffuser is not uniform, but consists of a multitude of pin-hole images of the sun. This non-uniform illumination produces small, but noticeable radiometric effects. A description of the computer model used to simulate the effects of the attenuation screen is given and the predictions of the model are compared with actual, on-orbit, calibration measurements.

Basic Modeling of the Solar Atmosphere and Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avrett, Eugene H.; Wagner, William J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

During the last three years we have continued the development of extensive computer programs for constructing realistic models of the solar atmosphere and for calculating detailed spectra to use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major interrelated efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for optically thick non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed high-resolution synthesis of the solar spectrum using data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our objective is to construct atmospheric models from which the calculated spectra agree as well as possible with high-and low-resolution observations over a wide wavelength range. Such modeling leads to an improved understanding of the physical processes responsible for the structure and behavior of the atmosphere.

Multi-Wavelength Imaging of Solar Plasma - High-Beta Disruption Model of Solar Flares -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibasaki, Kiyoto

Solar atmosphere is filled with plasma and magnetic field. Activities in the atmosphere are due to plasma instabilities in the magnetic field. To understand the physical mechanisms of activities / instabilities, it is necessary to know the physical conditions of magnetized plasma, such as temperature, density, magnetic field, and their spatial structures and temporal developments. Multi-wavelength imaging is essential for this purpose. Imaging observations of the Sun at microwave, X-ray, EUV and optical ranges are routinely going on. Due to free exchange of original data among solar physics and related field communities, we can easily combine images covering wide range of spectrum. Even under such circumstances, we still do not understand the cause of activities in the solar atmosphere well. The current standard model of solar activities is based on magnetic reconnection: release of stored magnetic energy by reconnection is the cause of solar activities on the Sun such as solar flares. However, recent X-ray, EUV and microwave observations with high spatial and temporal resolution show that dense plasma is involved in activities from the beginning. Based on these observations, I propose a high-beta model of solar activities, which is very similar to high-beta disruptions in magnetically confined fusion experiments.

3D ELECTRON DENSITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE SOLAR CORONA DURING SOLAR MINIMA: ASSESSMENT FOR MORE REALISTIC SOLAR WIND MODELING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patoul, Judith de; Foullon, Claire; Riley, Pete, E-mail: j.depatoul@exeter.ac.uk, E-mail: c.foullon@exeter.ac.uk, E-mail: rileype@saic.com

Knowledge of the electron density distribution in the solar corona put constraints on the magnetic field configurations for coronal modeling and on initial conditions for solar wind modeling. We work with polarized SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from the last two recent minima of solar activity (1996–1997 and 2008–2010), devoid of coronal mass ejections. The goals are to derive the 4D electron density distributions in the corona by applying a newly developed time-dependent tomographic reconstruction method and to compare the results between the two solar minima and with two magnetohydrodynamic models. First, we confirm that the values of the density distribution in thermodynamic models aremore » more realistic than in polytropic ones. The tomography provides more accurate distributions in the polar regions, and we find that the density in tomographic and thermodynamic solutions varies with the solar cycle in both polar and equatorial regions. Second, we find that the highest-density structures do not always correspond to the predicted large-scale heliospheric current sheet or its helmet streamer but can follow the locations of pseudo-streamers. We deduce that tomography offers reliable density distributions in the corona, reproducing the slow time evolution of coronal structures, without prior knowledge of the coronal magnetic field over a full rotation. Finally, we suggest that the highest-density structures show a differential rotation well above the surface depending on how they are magnetically connected to the surface. Such valuable information on the rotation of large-scale structures could help to connect the sources of the solar wind to their in situ counterparts in future missions such as Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.« less

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linker, Jon A.

1998-01-01

The coronal magnetic field defines the structure of the solar corona, the position of the heliospheric current sheet, the regions of fast and slow solar wind, and the most likely sites of coronal mass ejections. There are few measurements of the magnetic fields in the corona, but the line-of-sight component of the global magnetic fields in the photosphere have been routinely measured for many years (for example, at Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory, and at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak). The SOI/MDI instrument is now providing high-resolution full-disk magnetograms several times a day. Understanding the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere requires accurately mapping the measured photospheric magnetic field into the corona and outward. Ideally, a model should not only extrapolate the magnetic field, but should self-consistently reconstruct both the plasma and magnetic fields in the corona and solar wind. Support from our NASA SR&T contract has allowed us to develop three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona that incorporate observed photospheric magnetic fields into the boundary conditions. These calculations not only describe the magnetic field in the corona and interplanetary spice, but also predict the plasma properties as well. Our computations thus far have been successful in reproducing many aspects of both coronal and interplanetary data, including the structure of the streamer belt, the location of coronal hole boundaries, and the position and shape of the heliospheric current sheet. The most widely used technique for extrapolating the photospheric magnetic field into the corona and heliosphere are potential field models, such as the potential field source-surface model (PFSS),and the potential field current-sheet (PFCS) model

Development of Solar Drying Model for Selected Cambodian Fish Species

PubMed Central

Hubackova, Anna; Kucerova, Iva; Chrun, Rithy; Chaloupkova, Petra; Banout, Jan

2014-01-01

A solar drying was investigated as one of perspective techniques for fish processing in Cambodia. The solar drying was compared to conventional drying in electric oven. Five typical Cambodian fish species were selected for this study. Mean solar drying temperature and drying air relative humidity were 55.6°C and 19.9%, respectively. The overall solar dryer efficiency was 12.37%, which is typical for natural convection solar dryers. An average evaporative capacity of solar dryer was 0.049 kg·h−1. Based on coefficient of determination (R 2), chi-square (χ 2) test, and root-mean-square error (RMSE), the most suitable models describing natural convection solar drying kinetics were Logarithmic model, Diffusion approximate model, and Two-term model for climbing perch and Nile tilapia, swamp eel and walking catfish and Channa fish, respectively. In case of electric oven drying, the Modified Page 1 model shows the best results for all investigated fish species except Channa fish where the two-term model is the best one. Sensory evaluation shows that most preferable fish is climbing perch, followed by Nile tilapia and walking catfish. This study brings new knowledge about drying kinetics of fresh water fish species in Cambodia and confirms the solar drying as acceptable technology for fish processing. PMID:25250381

Modeling of solar polygeneration plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, Roberto; Escobar, Rodrigo; Cardemil, José

2017-06-01

In this work, a exergoeconomic analysis of the joint production of electricity, fresh water, cooling and process heat for a simulated concentrated solar power (CSP) based on parabolic trough collector (PTC) with thermal energy storage (TES) and backup energy system (BS), a multi-effect distillation (MED) module, a refrigeration absorption module, and process heat module is carried out. Polygeneration plant is simulated in northern Chile in Crucero with a yearly total DNI of 3,389 kWh/m2/year. The methodology includes designing and modeling a polygeneration plant and applying exergoeconomic evaluations and calculating levelized cost. Solar polygeneration plant is simulated hourly, in a typical meteorological year, for different solar multiple and hour of storage. This study reveals that the total exergy cost rate of products (sum of exergy cost rate of electricity, water, cooling and heat process) is an alternative method to optimize a solar polygeneration plant.

A simplified solar cell array modelling program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, R. D.

1982-01-01

As part of the energy conversion/self sufficiency efforts of DSN engineering, it was necessary to have a simplified computer model of a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. This article describes the analysis and simplifications employed in the development of a PV cell array computer model. The analysis of the incident solar radiation, steady state cell temperature and the current-voltage characteristics of a cell array are discussed. A sample cell array was modelled and the results are presented.

The virtual enhancements - solar proton event radiation (VESPER) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminalragia-Giamini, Sigiava; Sandberg, Ingmar; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Jiggens, Piers

2018-02-01

A new probabilistic model introducing a novel paradigm for the modelling of the solar proton environment at 1 AU is presented. The virtual enhancements - solar proton event radiation model (VESPER) uses the European space agency's solar energetic particle environment modelling (SEPEM) Reference Dataset and produces virtual time-series of proton differential fluxes. In this regard it fundamentally diverges from the approach of existing SPE models that are based on probabilistic descriptions of SPE macroscopic characteristics such as peak flux and cumulative fluence. It is shown that VESPER reproduces well the dataset characteristics it uses, and further comparisons with existing models are made with respect to their results. The production of time-series as the main output of the model opens a straightforward way for the calculation of solar proton radiation effects in terms of time-series and the pairing with effects caused by trapped radiation and galactic cosmic rays.

Helioseismology Observations of Solar Cycles and Dynamo Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosovichev, A. G.; Guerrero, G.; Pipin, V.

2017-12-01

Helioseismology observations from the SOHO and SDO, obtained in 1996-2017, provide unique insight into the dynamics of the Sun's deep interior for two solar cycles. The data allow us to investigate variations of the solar interior structure and dynamics, and compare these variations with dynamo models and simulations. We use results of the local and global helioseismology data processing pipelines at the SDO Joint Science Operations Center (Stanford University) to study solar-cycle variations of the differential rotation, meridional circulation, large-scale flows and global asphericity. By comparing the helioseismology results with the evolution of surface magnetic fields we identify characteristic changes associated the initiation and development of Solar Cycles 23 and 24. For the physical interpretation of observed variations, the results are compared with the current mean-field dynamo models and 3D MHD dynamo simulations. It is shown that the helioseismology inferences provide important constraints on the solar dynamo mechanism, may explain the fundamental difference between the two solar cycles, and also give information about the next solar cycle.

Modeling the heliospheric current sheet: Solar cycle variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Pete; Linker, J. A.; Mikić, Z.

2002-07-01

In this report we employ an empirically driven, three-dimensional MHD model to explore the evolution of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) during the course of the solar cycle. We compare our results with a simpler ``constant-speed'' approach for mapping the HCS outward into the solar wind to demonstrate that dynamic effects can substantially deform the HCS in the inner heliosphere (<~5 AU). We find that these deformations are most pronounced at solar minimum and become less significant at solar maximum, when interaction regions are less effective. Although solar maximum is typically associated with transient, rather than corotating, processes, we show that even under such conditions, the HCS can maintain its structure over the course of several solar rotations. While the HCS may almost always be topologically equivalent to a ``ballerina skirt,'' we discuss an interval approaching the maximum of solar cycle 23 (Carrington rotations 1960 and 1961) when the shape would be better described as ``conch shell''-like. We use Ulysses magnetic field measurements to support the model results.

Magnetohydrodynamic modelling of solar disturbances in the interplanetary medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryer, M.

1985-12-01

A scientifically constructed series of interplanetary magnetohydrodynamic models is made that comprise the foundations for a composite solar terrestrial environment model. These models, unique in the field of solar wind physics, include both 2-1/2D as well as 3D time dependent codes that will lead to future operational status. We have also developed a geomagnetic storm forecasting strategy, referred to as the Solar Terrestrial Environment Model (STEM/2000), whereby these models would be appended in modular fashion to solar, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and neutral atmosphere models. We stress that these models, while still not appropriate at this date for operational use, outline a strategy or blueprint for the future. This strategy, if implemented in its essential features, offers a high probability for technology transfer from theory to operational testing within, approximately, a decade. It would ensure that real time observations would be used to drive physically based models that outputs of which would be used by space environment forecasters.

Developing a new solar radiation estimation model based on Buckingham theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekici, Can; Teke, Ismail

2018-06-01

While the value of solar radiation can be expressed physically in the days without clouds, this expression becomes difficult in cloudy and complicated weather conditions. In addition, solar radiation measurements are often not taken in developing countries. In such cases, solar radiation estimation models are used. Solar radiation prediction models estimate solar radiation using other measured meteorological parameters those are available in the stations. In this study, a solar radiation estimation model was obtained using Buckingham theorem. This theory has been shown to be useful in predicting solar radiation. In this study, Buckingham theorem is used to express the solar radiation by derivation of dimensionless pi parameters. This derived model is compared with temperature based models in the literature. MPE, RMSE, MBE and NSE error analysis methods are used in this comparison. Allen, Hargreaves, Chen and Bristow-Campbell models in the literature are used for comparison. North Dakota's meteorological data were used to compare the models. Error analysis were applied through the comparisons between the models in the literature and the model that is derived in the study. These comparisons were made using data obtained from North Dakota's agricultural climate network. In these applications, the model obtained within the scope of the study gives better results. Especially, in terms of short-term performance, it has been found that the obtained model gives satisfactory results. It has been seen that this model gives better accuracy in comparison with other models. It is possible in RMSE analysis results. Buckingham theorem was found useful in estimating solar radiation. In terms of long term performances and percentage errors, the model has given good results.

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

PubMed Central

Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

2014-01-01

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.

PubMed

Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

2014-06-01

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations.

Worldwide multi-model intercomparison of clear-sky solar irradiance predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Cebecauer, Tomas

2017-06-01

Accurate modeling of solar radiation in the absence of clouds is highly important because solar power production peaks during cloud-free situations. The conventional validation approach of clear-sky solar radiation models relies on the comparison between model predictions and ground observations. Therefore, this approach is limited to locations with availability of high-quality ground observations, which are scarce worldwide. As a consequence, many areas of in-terest for, e.g., solar energy development, still remain sub-validated. Here, a worldwide inter-comparison of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) calculated by a number of appropriate clear-sky solar ra-diation models is proposed, without direct intervention of any weather or solar radiation ground-based observations. The model inputs are all gathered from atmospheric reanalyses covering the globe. The model predictions are compared to each other and only their relative disagreements are quantified. The largest differences between model predictions are found over central and northern Africa, the Middle East, and all over Asia. This coincides with areas of high aerosol optical depth and highly varying aerosol distribution size. Overall, the differences in modeled DNI are found about twice larger than for GHI. It is argued that the prevailing weather regimes (most importantly, aerosol conditions) over regions exhibiting substantial divergences are not adequately parameterized by all models. Further validation and scrutiny using conventional methods based on ground observations should be pursued in priority over those specific regions to correctly evaluate the performance of clear-sky models, and select those that can be recommended for solar concentrating applications in particular.

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Updated Model of the Solar Energetic Proton Environment in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiggens, Piers; Heynderickx, Daniel; Sandberg, Ingmar; Truscott, Pete; Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami

2018-05-01

The Solar Accumulated and Peak Proton and Heavy Ion Radiation Environment (SAPPHIRE) model provides environment specification outputs for all aspects of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) environment. The model is based upon a thoroughly cleaned and carefully processed data set. Herein the evolution of the solar proton model is discussed with comparisons to other models and data. This paper discusses the construction of the underlying data set, the modelling methodology, optimisation of fitted flux distributions and extrapolation of model outputs to cover a range of proton energies from 0.1 MeV to 1 GeV. The model provides outputs in terms of mission cumulative fluence, maximum event fluence and peak flux for both solar maximum and solar minimum periods. A new method for describing maximum event fluence and peak flux outputs in terms of 1-in-x-year SPEs is also described. SAPPHIRE proton model outputs are compared with previous models including CREME96, ESP-PSYCHIC and the JPL model. Low energy outputs are compared to SEP data from ACE/EPAM whilst high energy outputs are compared to a new model based on GLEs detected by Neutron Monitors (NMs).

Raster-Based Approach to Solar Pressure Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Theodore W. II

2013-01-01

An algorithm has been developed to take advantage of the graphics processing hardware in modern computers to efficiently compute high-fidelity solar pressure forces and torques on spacecraft, taking into account the possibility of self-shading due to the articulation of spacecraft components such as solar arrays. The process is easily extended to compute other results that depend on three-dimensional attitude analysis, such as solar array power generation or free molecular flow drag. The impact of photons upon a spacecraft introduces small forces and moments. The magnitude and direction of the forces depend on the material properties of the spacecraft components being illuminated. The parts of the components being lit depends on the orientation of the craft with respect to the Sun, as well as the gimbal angles for any significant moving external parts (solar arrays, typically). Some components may shield others from the Sun. The purpose of this innovation is to enable high-fidelity computation of solar pressure and power generation effects of illuminated portions of spacecraft, taking self-shading from spacecraft attitude and movable components into account. The key idea in this innovation is to compute results dependent upon complicated geometry by using an image to break the problem into thousands or millions of sub-problems with simple geometry, and then the results from the simpler problems are combined to give high-fidelity results for the full geometry. This process is performed by constructing a 3D model of a spacecraft using an appropriate computer language (OpenGL), and running that model on a modern computer's 3D accelerated video processor. This quickly and accurately generates a view of the model (as shown on a computer screen) that takes rotation and articulation of spacecraft components into account. When this view is interpreted as the spacecraft as seen by the Sun, then only the portions of the craft visible in the view are illuminated. The view as

Model predictive control of a solar-thermal reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saade Saade, Maria Elizabeth

Solar-thermal reactors represent a promising alternative to fossil fuels because they can harvest solar energy and transform it into storable and transportable fuels. The operation of solar-thermal reactors is restricted by the available sunlight and its inherently transient behavior, which affects the performance of the reactors and limits their efficiency. Before solar-thermal reactors can become commercially viable, they need to be able to maintain a continuous high-performance operation, even in the presence of passing clouds. A well-designed control system can preserve product quality and maintain stable product compositions, resulting in a more efficient and cost-effective operation, which can ultimately lead to scale-up and commercialization of solar thermochemical technologies. In this work, we propose a model predictive control (MPC) system for a solar-thermal reactor for the steam-gasification of biomass. The proposed controller aims at rejecting the disturbances in solar irradiation caused by the presence of clouds. A first-principles dynamic model of the process was developed. The model was used to study the dynamic responses of the process variables and to identify a linear time-invariant model used in the MPC algorithm. To provide an estimation of the disturbances for the control algorithm, a one-minute-ahead direct normal irradiance (DNI) predictor was developed. The proposed predictor utilizes information obtained through the analysis of sky images, in combination with current atmospheric measurements, to produce the DNI forecast. In the end, a robust controller was designed capable of rejecting disturbances within the operating region. Extensive simulation experiments showed that the controller outperforms a finely-tuned multi-loop feedback control strategy. The results obtained suggest that our controller is suitable for practical implementation.

Elementary Students' Mental Models of the Solar System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calderon-Canales, Elena; Flores-Camacho, Fernando; Gallegos-Cazares, Leticia

2013-01-01

This research project aimed to identify and analyze Mexican primary school students' ideas about the components of the solar system. In particular, this study focused on conceptions of the solar system and representations of the dynamics of the solar system based on the functional and structural models that students make in school. Using a…

Subgrid Scale Modeling in Solar Convection Simulations using the ASH Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Y.-N.; Miesch, M.; Mansour, N. N.

2003-01-01

The turbulent solar convection zone has remained one of the most challenging and important subjects in physics. Understanding the complex dynamics in the solar con- vection zone is crucial for gaining insight into the solar dynamo problem. Many solar observatories have generated revealing data with great details of large scale motions in the solar convection zone. For example, a strong di erential rotation is observed: the angular rotation is observed to be faster at the equator than near the poles not only near the solar surface, but also deep in the convection zone. On the other hand, due to the wide range of dynamical scales of turbulence in the solar convection zone, both theory and simulation have limited success. Thus, cutting edge solar models and numerical simulations of the solar convection zone have focused more narrowly on a few key features of the solar convection zone, such as the time-averaged di erential rotation. For example, Brun & Toomre (2002) report computational finding of differential rotation in an anelastic model for solar convection. A critical shortcoming in this model is that the viscous dissipation is based on application of mixing length theory to stellar dynamics with some ad hoc parameter tuning. The goal of our work is to implement the subgrid scale model developed at CTR into the solar simulation code and examine how the differential rotation will be a affected as a result. Specifically, we implement a Smagorinsky-Lilly subgrid scale model into the ASH (anelastic spherical harmonic) code developed over the years by various authors. This paper is organized as follows. In x2 we briefly formulate the anelastic system that describes the solar convection. In x3 we formulate the Smagorinsky-Lilly subgrid scale model for unstably stratifed convection. We then present some preliminary results in x4, where we also provide some conclusions and future directions.

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Near Earth Asteroid Scout Solar Sail Thrust and Torque Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heaton, Andy; Ahmad, Naeem; Miller, Kyle

2017-01-01

The Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout is a solar sail mission whose objective is to scout at least one Near Earth Asteroid to help prepare for human missions to Near Earth Asteroids. NEA Scout will launch as a secondary payload on the first SLS-Orion mission. NEA Scout will perform a small trim maneuver shortly after deploy from the spent SLS upper stage using a cold gas propulsion system, but from that point on will depend entirely on the solar sail for thrust. As such, it is important to accurately characterize the thrust of the sail in order to achieve mission success. Additionally, the solar sail creates a relatively large solar disturbance torque that must be mitigated. For early mission design studies a flat plate model of the solar sail with a fixed center of pressure was adequate, but as mission concepts and the sail design matured, greater fidelity was required. Here we discuss the progress to a three-dimensional sail model that includes the effects of tension and thermal deformation that has been derived from a large structural Finite Element Model (FEM) developed by the Langley Research Center. We have found that the deformed sail membrane affects torque relatively much more than thrust; a flat plate model could potentially model thrust well enough to close mission design studies, but a three-dimensional solar sail is essential to control system design. The three-dimensional solar sail model revealed that thermal deformations of unshielded booms would create unacceptably large solar disturbance torques. The original large FEM model was used in control and mission simulations, but was resulted in simulations with prohibitive run times. This led us to adapt the Generalized Sail Model (GSM) of Rios-Reyes. A design reference sail model has been baselined for NEA Scout and has been used to design the mission and control system for the sailcraft. Additionally, since NEA Scout uses reaction wheels for attitude pointing and control, the solar torque model is

A Solar Data Model for Use in Virtual Observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reardon, K. P.; Bentley, R. D.; Messerotti, M.; Giordano, S.

2004-05-01

The creation of a virtual solar observatories relies heavily on the merging of the metadata describing different datasets into a common form so that it can be handled in a standard way for all associated resources. In order to bring together the varied data descriptions that already exist, it is necessary to have a common framework on which all the different datasets can be represented. The definition of this framework is done through a data model which attempts to provide a simplified but realistic description of the various entities that make up a data set or solar resource. We present the solar data model which has been developed as part of the European Grid of Solar Observations (EGSO) project. This model attempts to include many of the different elements in the field of solar physics, including data producers, data sets, event lists, and data providers. This global picture can then be used to focus on the particular elements required for a specific implementation. We present the different aspects of the model and describe some systems in which portions of this model have been implemented.

Forecast Method of Solar Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Takanobu; Goto, Yusuke; Terazono, Takahiro; Wakao, Shinji; Oozeki, Takashi

PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

Kinematic solar dynamo models with a deep meridional flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerrero, G. A.; Muñoz, J. D.

2004-05-01

We develop two different solar dynamo models to verify the hypothesis that a deep meridional flow can restrict the appearance of sunspots below 45°, proposed recently by Nandy & Choudhuri. In the first one, a single polytropic approximation for the density profile was taken, for both radiative and convective zones. In the second one, that of Pinzon & Calvo-Mozo, two polytropes were used to distinguish between both zones. The magnetic buoyancy mechanism proposed by Dikpati & Charbonneau was chosen in both models. We have in fact obtained that a deep meridional flow pushes the maxima of toroidal magnetic field towards the solar equator, but, in contrast to Nandy & Choudhuri, a second zone of maximal fields remains at the poles. The second model, although closely resembling the solar standard model of Bahcall et al., gives solar cycles three times longer than observed.

3D electron density distributions in the solar corona during solar minima: assessment for more realistic solar wind modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Patoul, J.; Foullon, C.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

Knowledge of the electron density distribution in the solar corona put constraints on the magnetic field configurations for coronal modeling, and on initial conditions for solar wind modeling. We work with polarized SOHO/LASCO-C2 images from the last two recent minima of solar activity (1996-1997 and 2008-2010), devoid of coronal mass ejections. We derive the 4D electron density distributions in the corona by applying a newly developed time-dependent tomographic reconstruction method. First we compare the density distributions obtained from tomography with magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions. The tomography provides more accurate distributions of electron densities in the polar regions, and we find that the observed density varies with the solar cycle in both polar and equatorial regions. Second, we find that the highest-density structures do not always correspond to the predicted large-scale heliospheric current sheet or its helmet streamer but can follow the locations of pseudo-streamers. We conclude that tomography offers reliable density distribution in the corona, reproducing the slow time evolution of coronal structures, without prior knowledge of the coronal magnetic field over a full rotation. Finally, we suggest that the highest-density structures show a differential rotation well above the surface depending on how it is magnetically connected to the surface. Such valuable information on the rotation of large-scale structures could help to connect the sources of the solar wind to their in-situ counterparts in future missions such as Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus. This research combined with the MHD coronal modeling efforts has the potential to increase the reliability for future space weather forecasting.

Numerical modeling of reflux solar receivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, R.E. Jr.

1993-05-01

Using reflux solar receivers to collect solar energy for dish-Stirling electric power generation systems is presently being investigated by several organizations, including Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, N. Mex. In support of this program, Sandia has developed two numerical models describing the thermal performance of pool-boiler and heat-pipe reflux receivers. Both models are applicable to axisymmetric geometries and they both consider the radiative and convective energy transfer within the receiver cavity, the conductive and convective energy transfer from the receiver housing, and the energy transfer to the receiver working fluid. The primary difference between the models is the level of detailmore » in modeling the heat conduction through the receiver walls. The more detailed model uses a two-dimensional finite control volume method, whereas the simpler model uses a one-dimensional thermal resistance approach. The numerical modeling concepts presented are applicable to conventional tube-type solar receivers, as well as to reflux receivers. Good agreement between the two models is demonstrated by comparing the predicted and measured performance of a pool-boiler reflux receiver being tested at Sandia. For design operating conditions, the receiver thermal efficiencies agree within 1 percent and the average receiver cavity temperature within 1.3 percent. The thermal efficiency and receiver temperatures predicted by the simpler thermal resistance model agree well with experimental data from on-sun tests of the Sandia reflux pool-boiler receiver. An analysis of these comparisons identifies several plausible explanations for the differences between the predicted results and the experimental data.« less

Toward a descriptive model of solar particles in the heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shea, M. A.; Smart, D. F.; Adams, James H., Jr.; Chenette, D.; Feynman, Joan; Hamilton, Douglas C.; Heckman, G. R.; Konradi, A.; Lee, Martin A.; Nachtwey, D. S.

1988-01-01

During a workshop on the interplanetary charged particle environment held in 1987, a descriptive model of solar particles in the heliosphere was assembled. This model includes the fluence, composition, energy spectra, and spatial and temporal variations of solar particles both within and beyong 1 AU. The ability to predict solar particle fluences was also discussed. Suggestions for specific studies designed to improve the basic model were also made.

Synoptic, Global Mhd Model For The Solar Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Ofer; Sokolov, I. V.; Roussev, I. I.; Gombosi, T. I.

2007-05-01

The common techniques for mimic the solar corona heating and the solar wind acceleration in global MHD models are as follow. 1) Additional terms in the momentum and energy equations derived from the WKB approximation for the Alfv’en wave turbulence; 2) some empirical heat source in the energy equation; 3) a non-uniform distribution of the polytropic index, γ, used in the energy equation. In our model, we choose the latter approach. However, in order to get a more realistic distribution of γ, we use the empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model to constrain the MHD solution. The WSA model provides the distribution of the asymptotic solar wind speed from the potential field approximation; therefore it also provides the distribution of the kinetic energy. Assuming that far from the Sun the total energy is dominated by the energy of the bulk motion and assuming the conservation of the Bernoulli integral, we can trace the total energy along a magnetic field line to the solar surface. On the surface the gravity is known and the kinetic energy is negligible. Therefore, we can get the surface distribution of γ as a function of the final speed originating from this point. By interpolation γ to spherically uniform value on the source surface, we use this spatial distribution of γ in the energy equation to obtain a self-consistent, steady state MHD solution for the solar corona. We present the model result for different Carrington Rotations.

Modelling Magnetodisc Response to Solar Wind Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achilleos, N.; Guio, P.; Arridge, C. S.

2017-09-01

The Sun's influence is felt by planets in the solar system in many different ways. In this work, we use theoretical models of the magnetic fields of the Gas Giants (Jupiter and Saturn) to predict how they would change in response to compressions and expansions in the flow of charged particles ('solar wind') which continually emanates from the Sun. This in an example of 'Space Weather' - the interaction between the solar wind and magnetized planets, such as Jupiter, Saturn and even the Earth.

The large-scale magnetic field in the solar wind. [astronomical models of interplanetary magnetics and the solar magnetic field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burlaga, L. F.; Ness, N. F.

1976-01-01

A literature review is presented of theoretical models of the interaction of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic fields. Observations of interplanetary magnetic fields by the IMP and OSO spacecraft are discussed. The causes for cosmic ray variations (Forbush decreases) by the solar wind are examined. The model of Parker is emphasized. This model shows the three dimensional magnetic field lines of the solar wind to have the form of spirals wrapped on cones. It is concluded that an out-of-the-ecliptic solar probe mission would allow the testing and verification of the various theoretical models examined. Diagrams of the various models are shown.

Solar-wind predictions for the Parker Solar Probe orbit. Near-Sun extrapolations derived from an empirical solar-wind model based on Helios and OMNI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venzmer, M. S.; Bothmer, V.

2018-03-01

Context. The Parker Solar Probe (PSP; formerly Solar Probe Plus) mission will be humanitys first in situ exploration of the solar corona with closest perihelia at 9.86 solar radii (R⊙) distance to the Sun. It will help answer hitherto unresolved questions on the heating of the solar corona and the source and acceleration of the solar wind and solar energetic particles. The scope of this study is to model the solar-wind environment for PSPs unprecedented distances in its prime mission phase during the years 2018 to 2025. The study is performed within the Coronagraphic German And US SolarProbePlus Survey (CGAUSS) which is the German contribution to the PSP mission as part of the Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe. Aim. We present an empirical solar-wind model for the inner heliosphere which is derived from OMNI and Helios data. The German-US space probes Helios 1 and Helios 2 flew in the 1970s and observed solar wind in the ecliptic within heliocentric distances of 0.29 au to 0.98 au. The OMNI database consists of multi-spacecraft intercalibrated in situ data obtained near 1 au over more than five solar cycles. The international sunspot number (SSN) and its predictions are used to derive dependencies of the major solar-wind parameters on solar activity and to forecast their properties for the PSP mission. Methods: The frequency distributions for the solar-wind key parameters, magnetic field strength, proton velocity, density, and temperature, are represented by lognormal functions. In addition, we consider the velocity distributions bi-componental shape, consisting of a slower and a faster part. Functional relations to solar activity are compiled with use of the OMNI data by correlating and fitting the frequency distributions with the SSN. Further, based on the combined data set from both Helios probes, the parameters frequency distributions are fitted with respect to solar distance to obtain power law dependencies. Thus an empirical solar-wind model for the inner

Model of spacecraft atomic oxygen and solar exposure microenvironments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bourassa, R. J.; Pippin, H. G.

1993-01-01

Computer models of environmental conditions in Earth orbit are needed for the following reasons: (1) derivation of material performance parameters from orbital test data, (2) evaluation of spacecraft hardware designs, (3) prediction of material service life, and (4) scheduling spacecraft maintenance. To meet these needs, Boeing has developed programs for modeling atomic oxygen (AO) and solar radiation exposures. The model allows determination of AO and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposures for spacecraft surfaces (1) in arbitrary orientations with respect to the direction of spacecraft motion, (2) overall ranges of solar conditions, and (3) for any mission duration. The models have been successfully applied to prediction of experiment environments on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and for analysis of selected hardware designs for deployment on other spacecraft. The work on these models has been reported at previous LDEF conferences. Since publication of these reports, a revision has been made to the AO calculation for LDEF, and further work has been done on the microenvironments model for solar exposure.

Solar Radiation Estimated Through Mesoscale Atmospheric Modeling over Northeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Menezes Neto, Otacilio Leandro; Costa, Alexandre Araújo; Ramalho, Fernando Pinto; de Maria, Paulo Henrique Santiago

2009-03-01

The use of renewable energy sources, like solar, wind and biomass is rapidly increasing in recent years, with solar radiation as a particularly abundant energy source over Northeast Brazil. A proper quantitative knowledge of the incoming solar radiation is of great importance for energy planning in Brazil, serving as basis for developing future projects of photovoltaic power plants and solar energy exploitation. This work presents a methodology for mapping the incoming solar radiation at ground level for Northeast Brazil, using a mesoscale atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System—RAMS), calibrated and validated using data from the network of automatic surface stations from the State Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources from Ceará (Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos- FUNCEME). The results showed that the model exhibits systematic errors, overestimating surface radiation, but that, after the proper statistical corrections, using a relationship between the model-predicted cloud fraction, the ground-level observed solar radiation and the incoming solar radiation estimated at the top of the atmosphere, a correlation of 0.92 with a confidence interval of 13.5 W/m2 is found for monthly data. Using this methodology, we found an estimate for annual average incoming solar radiation over Ceará of 215 W/m2 (maximum in October: 260 W/m2).

Interplanetary Radiation and Internal Charging Environment Models for Solar Sails

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Altstatt, Richard L.; NeegaardParker, Linda

2005-01-01

A Solar Sail Radiation Environment (SSRE) model has been developed for defining charged particle environments over an energy range from 0.01 keV to 1 MeV for hydrogen ions, helium ions, and electrons. The SSRE model provides the free field charged particle environment required for characterizing energy deposition per unit mass, charge deposition, and dose rate dependent conductivity processes required to evaluate radiation dose and internal (bulk) charging processes in the solar sail membrane in interplanetary space. Solar wind and energetic particle measurements from instruments aboard the Ulysses spacecraft in a solar, near-polar orbit provide the particle data over a range of heliospheric latitudes used to derive the environment that can be used for radiation and charging environments for both high inclination 0.5 AU Solar Polar Imager mission and the 1.0 AU L1 solar missions. This paper describes the techniques used to model comprehensive electron, proton, and helium spectra over the range of particle energies of significance to energy and charge deposition in thin (less than 25 micrometers) solar sail materials.

A Polytropic Model of the Solar Interior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo-Mozo, B.; Buitrago Casas, J. C.; Martinez Oliveros, J. C.

2015-12-01

In this work we considered different processes in the solar interior that can be described using polytropes. This assumption implies a radially variable continuous polytropic exponent, that is, our model is a multi-polytropic model of the Sun. We derived the equations for this type of multi-polytropic structure and solved them using numerical integration methods. Both, the exponent and proportionality factor in the polytropic model equation of state were taken as input functions, for each spherical layer in the solar interior. Using the spatial distribution of the density and pressure terms from a solar standard model (SSM) we obtained the variable with depth polytropic exponents. We found that the radial distribution of these exponents show four different zones. These can be interpreted as a first region where the energy transport is controlled by radiation. The second region is defined by a sudden change in the polytropic index, which can be associated to the tachocline, followed by a region with a nearly constant polytropic index which suits well a convective zone. Finally, the exponent decreases radially at the photosphere.

Operation of the computer model for microenvironment solar exposure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gillis, J. R.; Bourassa, R. J.; Gruenbaum, P. E.

1995-01-01

A computer model for microenvironmental solar exposure was developed to predict solar exposure to satellite surfaces which may shadow or reflect on one another. This document describes the technical features of the model as well as instructions for the installation and use of the program.

Bridging the Radiative Transfer Models for Meteorology and Solar Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.; Sengupta, M.

2017-12-01

Radiative transfer models are used to compute solar radiation reaching the earth surface and play an important role in both meteorology and solar energy studies. Therefore, they are designed to meet the needs of specialized applications. For instance, radiative transfer models for meteorology seek to provide more accurate cloudy-sky radiation compared to models used in solar energy that are geared towards accuracy in clear-sky conditions associated with the maximum solar resource. However, models for solar energy applications are often computationally faster, as the complex solution of the radiative transfer equation is parameterized by atmospheric properties that can be acquired from surface- or satellite-based observations. This study introduces the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) recent efforts to combine the advantages of radiative transfer models designed for meteorology and solar energy applictions. A fast all-sky radiation model, FARMS-NIT, was developed to efficiently compute narrowband all-sky irradiances over inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. This new model utilizes the optical preperties from a solar energy model, SMARTS, to computes surface radiation by considering all possible paths of photon transmission and the relevent scattering and absorption attenuation. For cloudy-sky conditions, cloud bidirectional transmittance functions (BTDFs) are provided by a precomputed lookup table (LUT) by LibRadtran. Our initial results indicate that FARMS-NIT has an accuracy that is similar to LibRadtran, a highly accurate multi-stream model, but is significantly more efficient. The development and validation of this model will be presented.

A Raster Based Approach To Solar Pressure Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Theodore

2014-01-01

The impact of photons upon a spacecraft introduces small forces and moments. The magnitude and direction of the forces depend on the material properties of the spacecraft components being illuminated. Which components are being lit depends on the orientation of the craft with respect to the Sun as well as the gimbal angles for any significant moving external parts (solar arrays, typically). Some components may shield others from the Sun.To determine solar pressure in the presence overlapping components, a 3D model can be used to determine which components are illuminated. A view (image) of the model as seen from the Sun shows the only contributors to solar pressure. This image can be decomposed into pixels, each of which can be treated as a non-overlapping flat plate as far as solar pressure calculations are concerned. The sums of the pressures and moments on these plates approximate the solar pressure and moments on the entire vehicle.The image rasterization technique can also be used to compute other spacecraft attributes that are dependent on attitude and geometry, including solar array power generation capability and free molecular flow drag.

UV solar irradiance in observations and the NRLSSI and SATIRE-S models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, K. L.; Ball, W. T.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Unruh, Y. C.; Morrill, J.

2015-08-01

Total solar irradiance and UV spectral solar irradiance has been monitored since 1978 through a succession of space missions. This is accompanied by the development of models aimed at replicating solar irradiance by relating the variability to solar magnetic activity. The Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models provide the most comprehensive reconstructions of total and spectral solar irradiance over the period of satellite observation currently available. There is persistent controversy between the various measurements and models in terms of the wavelength dependence of the variation over the solar cycle, with repercussions on our understanding of the influence of UV solar irradiance variability on the stratosphere. We review the measurement and modeling of UV solar irradiance variability over the period of satellite observation. The SATIRE-S reconstruction is consistent with spectral solar irradiance observations where they are reliable. It is also supported by an independent, empirical reconstruction of UV spectral solar irradiance based on Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite/Solar Ultraviolet Spectral Irradiance Monitor measurements from an earlier study. The weaker solar cycle variability produced by NRLSSI between 300 and 400 nm is not evident in any available record. We show that although the method employed to construct NRLSSI is principally sound, reconstructed solar cycle variability is detrimentally affected by the uncertainty in the SSI observations it draws upon in the derivation. Based on our findings, we recommend, when choosing between the two models, the use of SATIRE-S for climate studies.

Mathematical and computational modeling simulation of solar drying Systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mathematical modeling of solar drying systems has the primary aim of predicting the required drying time for a given commodity, dryer type, and environment. Both fundamental (Fickian diffusion) and semi-empirical drying models have been applied to the solar drying of a variety of agricultural commo...

Numerical modeling of the thin shallow solar dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Bryan, J. B.; Jarboe, T. R.

2017-10-01

Nonlinear, numerical computation with the NIMROD code is used to explore and validate the thin shallow solar dynamo model [T.R. Jarboe et al. 2017], which explains the observed global temporal evolution (e.g. magnetic field reversal) and local surface structures (e.g. sunspots) of the sun. The key feature of this model is the presence and magnetic self-organization of global magnetic structures (GMS) lying just below the surface of the sun, which resemble 1D radial Taylor states of size comparable to the supergranule convection cells. First, we seek to validate the thin shallow solar dynamo model by reproducing the 11 year timescale for reversal of the solar magnetic field. Then, we seek to model formation of GMS from convection zone turbulence. Our computations simulate a slab covering a radial depth 3Mm and include differential rotation and gravity. Density, temperature, and resistivity profiles are taken from the Christensen-Dalsgaard model.

Measurements and Modeling of Radiation Exposure Due to Solar Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, P.; Conrad Wp6-Sgb Team

Dose assessment procedures of cosmic radiation to aircraft crew are introduced in most of the European countries according the corresponding European directive and national regulations 96 29 Euratom However the radiation exposure due to solar particle events is still a matter of scientific research Several in-flight measurements were performed during solar storm conditions First models to estimate the exposure due to solar particle events were discussed previously Recently EURADOS European Radiation Dosimetry Group http www eurados org started to coordinate research activities in model improvements for dose assessment of solar particle events The coordinated research is a work package of the European research project CONRAD Coordinated Network for Radiation Dosimetry on complex mixed radiation fields at workplaces Major aim of sub group B of that work package is the validation of models for dose assessment of solar particle events using data from neutron ground level monitors in-flight measurement results obtained during a solar particle event and proton satellite data The paper describes the current status of obtainable solar storm measurements and gives an overview of the existing models for dose assessment of solar particle events in flight altitudes

Recent developments for realistic solar models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Serenelli, Aldo M.

2014-05-02

The 'solar abundance problem' has triggered a renewed interest in revising the concept of SSM from different perspectives: 1) constituent microphysics: equation of state, nuclear rates, radiative opacities; 2) constituent macrophysics: the physical processes impact the evolution of the Sun and its present-day structure, e.g. dynamical processes induced by rotation, presence of magnetic fields; 3) challenge the hypothesis that the young Sun was chemically homogeneous: the possible interaction of the young Sun with its protoplanetary disk. Here, I briefly review and then present a (personal) view on recent advances and developments on solar modeling, part of them carried out asmore » attempts to solve the solar abundance problem.« less

The computation of standard solar models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ulrich, Roger K.; Cox, Arthur N.

1991-01-01

Procedures for calculating standard solar models with the usual simplifying approximations of spherical symmetry, no mixing except in the surface convection zone, no mass loss or gain during the solar lifetime, and no separation of elements by diffusion are described. The standard network of nuclear reactions among the light elements is discussed including rates, energy production and abundance changes. Several of the equation of state and opacity formulations required for the basic equations of mass, momentum and energy conservation are presented. The usual mixing-length convection theory is used for these results. Numerical procedures for calculating the solar evolution, and current evolution and oscillation frequency results for the present sun by some recent authors are given.

Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Wilson, John W.

2000-01-01

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

Optimization methods and silicon solar cell numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girardini, K.; Jacobsen, S. E.

1986-01-01

An optimization algorithm for use with numerical silicon solar cell models was developed. By coupling an optimization algorithm with a solar cell model, it is possible to simultaneously vary design variables such as impurity concentrations, front junction depth, back junction depth, and cell thickness to maximize the predicted cell efficiency. An optimization algorithm was developed and interfaced with the Solar Cell Analysis Program in 1 Dimension (SCAP1D). SCAP1D uses finite difference methods to solve the differential equations which, along with several relations from the physics of semiconductors, describe mathematically the performance of a solar cell. A major obstacle is that the numerical methods used in SCAP1D require a significant amount of computer time, and during an optimization the model is called iteratively until the design variables converge to the values associated with the maximum efficiency. This problem was alleviated by designing an optimization code specifically for use with numerically intensive simulations, to reduce the number of times the efficiency has to be calculated to achieve convergence to the optimal solution.

Students To Compete in Model Solar Car Race

Science.gov Websites

., May 8, 1998 — Middle school students from across Colorado will design, build and race model solar build solar-powered vehicles no larger than 16 inches wide, 24 inches long and 12 inches high. The sun's

A numerical calculation of outward propagation of solar disturbances. [solar atmospheric model with shock wave propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, S. T.

1974-01-01

The responses of the solar atmosphere due to an outward propagation shock are examined by employing the Lax-Wendroff method to solve the set of nonlinear partial differential equations in the model of the solar atmosphere. It is found that this theoretical model can be used to explain the solar phenomena of surge and spray. A criterion to discriminate the surge and spray is established and detailed information concerning the density, velocity, and temperature distribution with respect to the height and time is presented. The complete computer program is also included.

A model for proton-irradiated GaAs solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, J. W.; Walker, G. H.; Outlaw, R. A.; Stock, L. V.

1982-01-01

A simple model for proton radiation damage in GaAs heteroface solar cells is developed. The model includes the effects of spatial nonuniformity of low energy proton damage. Agreement between the model and experimental proton damage data for GaAs heteroface solar cells is satisfactory. An extension of the model to include angular isotropy, as is appropriate for protons in space, is shown to result in significantly less cell damage than for normal proton incidence.

Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linker, Jon A.; Wagner, William (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The solar corona, the hot, tenuous outer atmosphere of the Sun, exhibits many fascinating phenomena on a wide range of scales. One of the ways that the Sun can affect us here at Earth is through the large-scale structure of the corona and the dynamical phenomena associated with it, as it is the corona that extends outward as the solar wind and encounters the Earth's magnetosphere. The goal of our research sponsored by NASA's Supporting Research and Technology Program in Solar Physics is to develop increasingly realistic models of the large-scale solar corona, so that we can understand the underlying properties of the coronal magnetic field that lead to the observed structure and evolution of the corona. We describe the work performed under this contract.

An MHD simulation model of time-dependent global solar corona with temporally varying solar-surface magnetic field maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, K.

2013-11-01

We present a model of a time-dependent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics simulation of the sub-Alfvenic solar corona and super-Alfvenic solar wind with temporally varying solar-surface boundary magnetic field data. To (i) accommodate observational data with a somewhat arbitrarily evolving solar photospheric magnetic field as the boundary value and (ii) keep the divergence-free condition, we developed a boundary model, here named Confined Differential Potential Field model, that calculates the horizontal components of the magnetic field, from changes in the vertical component, as a potential field confined in a thin shell. The projected normal characteristic method robustly simulates the solar corona and solar wind, in response to the temporal variation of the boundary Br. We conduct test MHD simulations for two periods, from Carrington Rotation number 2009 to 2010 and from Carrington Rotation 2074 to 2075 at solar maximum and minimum of Cycle 23, respectively. We obtained several coronal features that a fixed boundary condition cannot yield, such as twisted magnetic field lines at the lower corona and the transition from an open-field coronal hole to a closed-field streamer. We also obtained slight improvements of the interplanetary magnetic field, including the latitudinal component, at Earth.

Curve fitting methods for solar radiation data modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul; Singh, Balbir Singh Mahinder

2014-10-01

This paper studies the use of several type of curve fitting method to smooth the global solar radiation data. After the data have been fitted by using curve fitting method, the mathematical model of global solar radiation will be developed. The error measurement was calculated by using goodness-fit statistics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and the value of R2. The best fitting methods will be used as a starting point for the construction of mathematical modeling of solar radiation received in Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) Malaysia. Numerical results indicated that Gaussian fitting and sine fitting (both with two terms) gives better results as compare with the other fitting methods.

Curve fitting methods for solar radiation data modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul, E-mail: samsul-ariffin@petronas.com.my, E-mail: balbir@petronas.com.my; Singh, Balbir Singh Mahinder, E-mail: samsul-ariffin@petronas.com.my, E-mail: balbir@petronas.com.my

2014-10-24

This paper studies the use of several type of curve fitting method to smooth the global solar radiation data. After the data have been fitted by using curve fitting method, the mathematical model of global solar radiation will be developed. The error measurement was calculated by using goodness-fit statistics such as root mean square error (RMSE) and the value of R{sup 2}. The best fitting methods will be used as a starting point for the construction of mathematical modeling of solar radiation received in Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP) Malaysia. Numerical results indicated that Gaussian fitting and sine fitting (both withmore » two terms) gives better results as compare with the other fitting methods.« less

Solar models with helium and heavy-element diffusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bahcall, J.N.; Pinsonneault, M.H.; Wasserburg, G.J.

1995-10-01

Helium and heavy-element diffusion are both included in precise calculations of solar models. In addition, improvements in the input data for solar interior models are described for nuclear reaction rates, the solar luminosity, the solar age, heavy-element abundances, radiative opacities, helium and metal diffusion rates, and neutrino interaction cross sections. The effects on the neutrino fluxes of each change in the input physics are evaluated separately by constructing a series of solar models with one additional improvement added at each stage. The effective 1{sigma} uncertainties in the individual input quantities are estimated and used to evaluate the uncertainties in themore » calculated neutrino fluxes and the calculated event rates for solar neutrino experiments. The calculated neutrino event rates, including all of the improvements, are 9.3{sub {minus}1.4}{sup +1.2} SNU for the {sup 37}Cl experiment and 137{sub {minus}7}{sup +8} SNU for the {sup 71}Ga experiments. The calculated flux of {sup 7}Be neutrinos is 5.1(1.00{sub {minus}0.07}{sup +0.06}){times}10{sup 9} cm{sup {minus}2}s{sup {minus}1} and the flux of {sup 8}B neutrinos is 6.6(1.00{sub {minus}0.17}{sup +0.14}){times}10{sup 6} cm{sup {minus}2}s{sup {minus}1}. The primordial helium abundance found for this model is {ital Y}=0.278. The present-day surface abundance of the model is {ital Y}{sub {ital s}}=0.247, in agreement with the helioseismological measurement of {ital Y}{sub {ital s}}=0.242{plus_minus}0.003 determined by Hernandez and Christensen-Dalsgaard (1994). The computed depth of the convective zone is {ital R}=0.712{ital R}{sub {circle_dot}}, in agreement with the observed value determined from {ital p}-mode oscillation data of {ital R}=0.713{plus_minus}0.003{ital R}{sub {circle_dot}} found by Christensen-Dalsgaard {ital et} {ital al}. (1991). (Abstract Truncated)« less

Phase fluctuations model for EM wave propagation through solar scintillation at superior solar conjunction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guanjun; Song, Zhaohui

2017-04-01

Traveling solar wind disturbances have a significant influence on radio wave characteristics during the superior solar conjunction communication. This paper considers the impact of solar scintillation on phase fluctuations of electromagnetic (EM) wave propagation during the superior solar conjunction. Based on the Geometric Optics approximation, the close-form approximation model for phase fluctuations is developed. Both effects of anisotropic temporal variations function of plasma irregularities and their power spectrum are presented and analyzed numerically. It is found that phase fluctuations rapidly decrease with increasing Sun-Earth-Probe angle and decrease with increasing frequency at the rate of 1/f2. Moreover, the role of various features of the solar wind irregularities and their influence on the EM wave characteristic parameters is studied and discussed. Finally, we study the phase fluctuations of typical cases in order to better understand the impact of phase fluctuations in future deep space communication scenarios during solar conjunction periods.

Modeling and Analysis of Geoelectric Fields: Extended Solar Shield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngwira, C. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.

2016-12-01

In the NASA Applied Sciences Program Solar Shield project, an unprecedented first-principles-based system to forecast geomagnetically induced current (GIC) in high-voltage power transmission systems was developed. Rapid progress in the field of numerical physics-based space environment modeling has led to major developments over the past few years. In this study modeling and analysis of induced geoelectric fields is discussed. Specifically, we focus on the successful incorporation of 3-D EM transfer functions in the modeling of E-fields, and on the analysis of near real-time simulation outputs used in the Solar Shield forecast system. The extended Solar Shield is a collaborative project between DHS, NASA, NOAA, CUA and EPRI.

SOLINS- SOLAR INSOLATION MODEL FOR COMPUTING AVAILABLE SOLAR ENERGY TO A SURFACE OF ARBITRARY ORIENTATION

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, J. H.

1994-01-01

This computer program, SOLINS, was developed to aid engineers and solar system designers in the accurate modeling of the average hourly solar insolation on a surface of arbitrary orientation. The program can be used to study insolation problems specific to residential and commercial applications where the amount of space available for solar collectors is limited by shadowing problems, energy output requirements, and costs. For tandem rack arrays, SOLINS will accommodate the use of augmentation reflectors built into the support structure to increase insolation values at the collector surface. As the use of flat plate solar collectors becomes more prevalent in the building industry, the engineer and designer must have the capability to conduct extensive sensitivity analyses on the orientation and location of solar collectors. SOLINS should prove to be a valuable aid in this area of engineering. SOLINS uses a modified version of the National Bureau of Standards model to calculate the direct, diffuse, and reflected components of total insolation on a tilted surface with a given azimuthal orientation. The model is based on the work of Liu and Jordan with corrections by Kusuda and Ishii to account for early morning and late afternoon errors. The model uses a parametric description of the average day solar climate to generate monthly average day profiles by hour of the insolation level on the collector surface. The model includes accommodation of user specified ground and landscape reflectivities at the collector site. For roof or ground mounted, tilted arrays, SOLINS will calculate insolation including the effects of shadowing and augmentation reflectors. The user provides SOLINS with data describing the array design, array orientation, the month, the solar climate parameter, the ground reflectance, and printout control specifications. For the specified array and environmental conditions, SOLINS outputs the hourly insolation the array will receive during an average day

Evaluation of different models to estimate the global solar radiation on inclined surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demain, C.; Journée, M.; Bertrand, C.

2012-04-01

Global and diffuse solar radiation intensities are, in general, measured on horizontal surfaces, whereas stationary solar conversion systems (both flat plate solar collector and solar photovoltaic) are mounted on inclined surface to maximize the amount of solar radiation incident on the collector surface. Consequently, the solar radiation incident measured on a tilted surface has to be determined by converting solar radiation from horizontal surface to tilted surface of interest. This study evaluates the performance of 14 models transposing 10 minutes, hourly and daily diffuse solar irradiation from horizontal to inclined surface. Solar radiation data from 8 months (April to November 2011) which include diverse atmospheric conditions and solar altitudes, measured on the roof of the radiation tower of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium in Uccle (Longitude 4.35°, Latitude 50.79°) were used for validation purposes. The individual model performance is assessed by an inter-comparison between the calculated and measured solar global radiation on the south-oriented surface tilted at 50.79° using statistical methods. The relative performance of the different models under different sky conditions has been studied. Comparison of the statistical errors between the different radiation models in function of the clearness index shows that some models perform better under one type of sky condition. Putting together different models acting under different sky conditions can lead to a diminution of the statistical error between global measured solar radiation and global estimated solar radiation. As models described in this paper have been developed for hourly data inputs, statistical error indexes are minimum for hourly data and increase for 10 minutes and one day frequency data.

Interdigitated Back-Surface-Contact Solar Cell Modeling Using Silvaco Atlas

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

11 2. Solar Spectrum ...................................................................................13 3. PV Cell Efficiency...Figure 10. Spectrum of solar radiance, from [12]. 14 3. PV Cell Efficiency There are many factors that affect the efficiency of a solar cell. Metal...BACK-SURFACE-CONTACT SOLAR CELL MODELING USING SILVACO ATLAS by Shawn E. Green June 2015 Thesis Advisor: Sherif Michael Second Reader

Solar-Powered Desalination: A Modelling and Experimental Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leblanc, Jimmy; Andrews, John

2007-10-01

Water shortage is becoming one of the major problems worldwide. As such, desalination technologies have been implemented to meet growing demands for fresh water. Among the desalination technologies, thermal desalination, including multi stage flash (MSF) and multi effect evaporation (MEE), is the current leading desalination process. Reverse osmosis (RO) is also being increasingly used. Despite technological improvements, thermal desalination and reverse osmosis continue to be intensive fossil-fuel consumers and contribute to increased levels of greenhouse gases. As energy costs rise, thermal desalination by solar energy and/or low cost waste heat is likely to become increasingly attractive. As part of a project investigating the productive use of saline land and the development of sustainable desalination systems, the feasibility of producing potable water from seawater or brackish water using desalination systems powered by renewable energy in the form of low-temperature solar-thermal sources has been studied. A salinity-gradient solar pond and an evacuated tube solar collector system have been used as heat sources. Solar ponds combine solar energy collection with long-term storage and can provide reliable thermal energy at temperature ranges from 50 to 90 °C. A visual basic computer model of the different multi-stage flash desalination processes coupled with a salinity-gradient solar pond was developed to determine which process is preferable in regards to performance and greenhouse impact. The governing mathematical equations are derived from mass balances, heat energy balances, and heat transfer characteristics. Using the results from the modelling, a small-scale solar-powered desalination system, capable of producing up to 500 litres of fresh water per day, was designed and manufactured. This single-stage flash system consists of two main units: the heat supply and storage system and the flash desalination unit. Two different condenser heat exchanger

A Didactic Experiment and Model of a Flat-Plate Solar Collector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallitto, Aurelio Agliolo; Fiordilino, Emilio

2011-01-01

We report on an experiment performed with a home-made flat-plate solar collector, carried out together with high-school students. To explain the experimental results, we propose a model that describes the heating process of the solar collector. The model accounts quantitatively for the experimental data. We suggest that solar-energy topics should…

Solar Luminosity on the Main Sequence, Standard Model and Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayukov, S. V.; Baturin, V. A.; Gorshkov, A. B.; Oreshina, A. V.

2017-05-01

Our Sun became Main Sequence star 4.6 Gyr ago according Standard Solar Model. At that time solar luminosity was 30% lower than current value. This conclusion is based on assumption that Sun is fueled by thermonuclear reactions. If Earth's albedo and emissivity in infrared are unchanged during Earth history, 2.3 Gyr ago oceans had to be frozen. This contradicts to geological data: there was liquid water 3.6-3.8 Gyr ago on Earth. This problem is known as Faint Young Sun Paradox. We analyze luminosity change in standard solar evolution theory. Increase of mean molecular weight in the central part of the Sun due to conversion of hydrogen to helium leads to gradual increase of luminosity with time on the Main Sequence. We also consider several exotic models: fully mixed Sun; drastic change of pp reaction rate; Sun consisting of hydrogen and helium only. Solar neutrino observations however exclude most non-standard solar models.

Basic Modeling of the Solar Atmosphere and Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avrett, Eugene; Wagner, William J. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

This grant supported the research and publication of a major 26-page paper in The Astrophysical Journal, by Fontenla, Avrett, & Loeser (2002): 'Energy Balance in the Solar Transition Region. IV. Hydrogen and Helium Mass Flows with Diffusion.' This paper extended our previous modeling of the chromosphere-corona transition region to include cases with particle and mass flows. Inflows and outflows were shown to produce striking changes in the profiles of hydrogen and helium lines. An important conclusion is that line shifts are much less significant than the changes in line intensity and central reversal due to the influence of flows on the excitation and ionization of atoms in the solar atmosphere. This modeling effort at SAO is the only current one being undertaken anywhere to simulate in detail the full range of non-LTE absorption, emission, and scattering processes in the solar atmosphere to account for the entire solar spectrum from radio waves to X-rays. This effort is being continued with internal SAO funding at a relatively slow pace. Further NASA support in the future would yield results of great value for the interpretation of solar observations from NASA spacecraft.

A Universal Model for Solar Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyper, Peter; Antiochos, Spiro K.; DeVore, C. Richard

2017-08-01

We present a universal model for solar eruptions that encompasses coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at one end of the scale, to coronal jets at the other. The model is a natural extension of the Magnetic Breakout model for large-scale fast CMEs. Using high-resolution adaptive mesh MHD simulations conducted with the ARMS code, we show that so-called blowout or mini-filament coronal jets can be explained as one realisation of the breakout process. We also demonstrate the robustness of this “breakout-jet” model by studying three realisations in simulations with different ambient field inclinations. We conclude that magnetic breakout supports both large-scale fast CMEs and small-scale coronal jets, and by inference eruptions at scales in between. Thus, magnetic breakout provides a unified model for solar eruptions. P.F.W was supported in this work by an award of a RAS Fellowship and an appointment to the NASA Postdoctoral Program. C.R.D and S.K.A were supported by NASA’s LWS TR&T and H-SR programs.

A radiative transfer module for calculating photolysis rates and solar heating in climate models: Solar-J v7.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Juno; Prather, Michael J.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Veidenbaum, Alex; Nicolau, Alex

2017-07-01

Solar-J is a comprehensive radiative transfer model for the solar spectrum that addresses the needs of both solar heating and photochemistry in Earth system models. Solar-J is a spectral extension of Cloud-J, a standard in many chemical models that calculates photolysis rates in the 0.18-0.8 µm region. The Cloud-J core consists of an eight-stream scattering, plane-parallel radiative transfer solver with corrections for sphericity. Cloud-J uses cloud quadrature to accurately average over correlated cloud layers. It uses the scattering phase function of aerosols and clouds expanded to eighth order and thus avoids isotropic-equivalent approximations prevalent in most solar heating codes. The spectral extension from 0.8 to 12 µm enables calculation of both scattered and absorbed sunlight and thus aerosol direct radiative effects and heating rates throughout the Earth's atmosphere.The Solar-J extension adopts the correlated-k gas absorption bins, primarily water vapor, from the shortwave Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation model (GCM) applications (RRTMG-SW). Solar-J successfully matches RRTMG-SW's tropospheric heating profile in a clear-sky, aerosol-free, tropical atmosphere. We compare both codes in cloudy atmospheres with a liquid-water stratus cloud and an ice-crystal cirrus cloud. For the stratus cloud, both models use the same physical properties, and we find a systematic low bias of about 3 % in planetary albedo across all solar zenith angles caused by RRTMG-SW's two-stream scattering. Discrepancies with the cirrus cloud using any of RRTMG-SW's three different parameterizations are as large as about 20-40 % depending on the solar zenith angles and occur throughout the atmosphere.Effectively, Solar-J has combined the best components of RRTMG-SW and Cloud-J to build a high-fidelity module for the scattering and absorption of sunlight in the Earth's atmosphere, for which the three major components - wavelength integration, scattering, and

An Empirical Model of the Variation of the Solar Lyman-α Spectral Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretzschmar, Matthieu; Snow, Martin; Curdt, Werner

2018-03-01

We propose a simple model that computes the spectral profile of the solar irradiance in the hydrogen Lyman alpha line, H Ly-α (121.567 nm), from 1947 to present. Such a model is relevant for the study of many astronomical environments, from planetary atmospheres to interplanetary medium. This empirical model is based on the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory/Solar Ultraviolet Measurement of Emitted Radiation observations of the Ly-α irradiance over solar cycle 23 and the Ly-α disk-integrated irradiance composite. The model reproduces the temporal variability of the spectral profile and matches the independent SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment/SOLar-STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment spectral observations from 2003 to 2007 with an accuracy better than 10%.

Recent solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance observations and modeling: A review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobiska, W. Kent

1993-01-01

For more than 90 years, solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance modeling has progressed from empirical blackbody radiation formulations, through fudge factors, to typically measured irradiances and reference spectra was well as time-dependent empirical models representing continua and line emissions. A summary of recent EUV measurements by five rockets and three satellites during the 1980s is presented along with the major modeling efforts. The most significant reference spectra are reviewed and threee independently derived empirical models are described. These include Hinteregger's 1981 SERF1, Nusinov's 1984 two-component, and Tobiska's 1990/1991/SERF2/EUV91 flux models. They each provide daily full-disk broad spectrum flux values from 2 to 105 nm at 1 AU. All the models depend to one degree or another on the long time series of the Atmosphere Explorer E (AE-E) EUV database. Each model uses ground- and/or space-based proxies to create emissions from solar atmospheric regions. Future challenges in EUV modeling are summarized including the basic requirements of models, the task of incorporating new observations and theory into the models, the task of comparing models with solar-terrestrial data sets, and long-term goals and modeling objectives. By the late 1990s, empirical models will potentially be improved through the use of proposed solar EUV irradiance measurements and images at selected wavelengths that will greatly enhance modeling and predictive capabilities.

Interplanetary Radiation and Internal Charging Environment Models for Solar Sails

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Altstatt, Richard L.; Neergaard, Linda F.

2004-01-01

A Solar Sail Radiation Environment (SSRE) model has been developed for characterizing the radiation dose and internal charging environments in the solar wind. The SSRE model defines the 0.01 keV to 1 MeV charged particle environment for use in testing the radiation dose vulnerability of candidate solar sail materials and for use in evaluating the internal charging effects in the interplanetary environment. Solar wind and energetic particle instruments aboard the Ulysses spacecraft provide the particle data used to derive the environments for the high inclination 0.5 AU Solar Polar Imager mission and the 1.0 AU L1 solar sail missions. Ulysses is the only spacecraft to sample high latitude solar wind environments far from the ecliptic plane and is therefore uniquely capable of providing the information necessary for defining radiation environments for the Solar Polar Imager spacecraft. Cold plasma moments are used to derive differential flux spectra based on Kappa distribution functions. Energetic particle flux measurements are used to constrain the high energy, non-thermal tails of the distribution functions providing a comprehensive electron, proton, and helium spectra from less than 0.01 keV to a few MeV.

Model for energy transfer in the solar wind: Model results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, A. A., Jr.; Hartle, R. E.

1972-01-01

A description is given of the results of solar wind flow in which the heating is due to (1) propagation and dissipation of hydromagnetic waves generated near the base of the wind, and (2) thermal conduction. A series of models is generated for fixed values of density, electron and proton temperature, and magnetic field at the base by varying the wave intensity at the base of the model. This series of models predicts the observed correlation between flow speed and proton temperature for a large range of velocities. The wave heating takes place in a shell about the sun greater than or approximately equal to 10 R thick. We conclude that large-scale variations observed in the solar wind are probably due mainly to variation in the hydromagnetic wave flux near the sun.

The Predictability of Advection-dominated Flux-transport Solar Dynamo Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Sabrina; Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien

2014-01-01

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ e . The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ e equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.

Modeling, Simulation, and Control of a Solar Electric Propulsion Vehicle in Near-Earth Vicinity Including Solar Array Degradation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witzberger, Kevin (Inventor); Hojnicki, Jeffery (Inventor); Manzella, David (Inventor)

2016-01-01

Modeling and control software that integrates the complexities of solar array models, a space environment, and an electric propulsion system into a rigid body vehicle simulation and control model is provided. A rigid body vehicle simulation of a solar electric propulsion (SEP) vehicle may be created using at least one solar array model, at least one model of a space environment, and at least one model of a SEP propulsion system. Power availability and thrust profiles may be determined based on the rigid body vehicle simulation as the SEP vehicle transitions from a low Earth orbit (LEO) to a higher orbit or trajectory. The power availability and thrust profiles may be displayed such that a user can use the displayed power availability and thrust profiles to determine design parameters for an SEP vehicle mission.

Modeling the Solar Dust Environment at 9.5 Solar Radii: Revealing Radiance Trends with MESSENGER Star Tracker Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, S. B.; Strikwerda, T.; Lario, D.; Raouafi, N.; Decker, R.

2010-12-01

The main components of interplanetary dust are created through destruction, erosion, and collision of asteroids and comets (e.g. Mann et al. 2006). Solar radiation forces distribute these interplanetary dust particles throughout the solar system. The percent contribution of these source particulates to the net interplanetary dust distribution can reveal information about solar nebula conditions, within which these objects are formed. In the absence of observational data (e.g. Helios, Pioneer), specifically at distances less than 0.3 AU, the precise dust distributions remain unknown and limited to 1 AU extrapolative models (e.g. Mann et al. 2003). We have developed a model suitable for the investigation of scattered dust and electron irradiance incident on a sensor for distances inward of 1 AU. The model utilizes the Grün et al. (1985) and Mann et al. (2004) dust distribution theory combined with Mie theory and Thomson electron scattering to determine the magnitude of solar irradiance scattered towards an optical sensor as a function of helio-ecliptic latitude and longitude. MESSENGER star tracker observations (launch to 2010) of the ambient celestial background combined with Helios data (Lienert et al. 1982) reveal trends in support of the model predictions. This analysis further emphasizes the need to characterize the inner solar system dust environment in anticipation of near-Solar missions.

Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

2017-11-01

Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

An IBM PC-based math model for space station solar array simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emanuel, E. M.

1986-01-01

This report discusses and documents the design, development, and verification of a microcomputer-based solar cell math model for simulating the Space Station's solar array Initial Operational Capability (IOC) reference configuration. The array model is developed utilizing a linear solar cell dc math model requiring only five input parameters: short circuit current, open circuit voltage, maximum power voltage, maximum power current, and orbit inclination. The accuracy of this model is investigated using actual solar array on orbit electrical data derived from the Solar Array Flight Experiment/Dynamic Augmentation Experiment (SAFE/DAE), conducted during the STS-41D mission. This simulator provides real-time simulated performance data during the steady state portion of the Space Station orbit (i.e., array fully exposed to sunlight). Eclipse to sunlight transients and shadowing effects are not included in the analysis, but are discussed briefly. Integrating the Solar Array Simulator (SAS) into the Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) subsystem is also discussed.

Multifractal two-scale Cantor set model for slow solar wind turbulence in the outer heliosphere during solar maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macek, W. M.; Wawrzaszek, A.

2011-05-01

To quantify solar wind turbulence, we consider a generalized two-scale weighted Cantor set with two different scales describing nonuniform distribution of the kinetic energy flux between cascading eddies of various sizes. We examine generalized dimensions and the corresponding multifractal singularity spectrum depending on one probability measure parameter and two rescaling parameters. In particular, we analyse time series of velocities of the slow speed streams of the solar wind measured in situ by Voyager 2 spacecraft in the outer heliosphere during solar maximum at various distances from the Sun: 10, 30, and 65 AU. This allows us to look at the evolution of multifractal intermittent scaling of the solar wind in the distant heliosphere. Namely, it appears that while the degree of multifractality for the solar wind during solar maximum is only weakly correlated with the heliospheric distance, but the multifractal spectrum could substantially be asymmetric in a very distant heliosphere beyond the planetary orbits. Therefore, one could expect that this scaling near the frontiers of the heliosphere should rather be asymmetric. It is worth noting that for the model with two different scaling parameters a better agreement with the solar wind data is obtained, especially for the negative index of the generalized dimensions. Therefore we argue that there is a need to use a two-scale cascade model. Hence we propose this model as a useful tool for analysis of intermittent turbulence in various environments and we hope that our general asymmetric multifractal model could shed more light on the nature of turbulence.

Subionospheric VLF Propagation Modelling During a solar flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akel, A. F.

2013-05-01

This work aims to present a preliminary study of the behavior of the lower ionosphere under transient regimes of ionization through the technique of wave propagation of VLF (Very Low Frequency). For this, we characterized the lower ionosphere by two traditional (wait) parameters H' and β which are found by VLF radio modelling using the computational code of subionospheric radio propagation LWPC(Long Wave Propagation Capability). The main effects and behaviors investigated in this study was due to a solar flare 2M class near solar minimum at 03/25/2008. We changed Solar zenith angle dependence of the ionospheric parameters H' and β for diurnal time by a polynomial equation. For this study we used the available data the South America VLF Network (SAVNET) and show the results between modeling and data

A radiative transfer module for calculating photolysis rates and solar heating in climate models: Solar-J v7.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsu, Juno; Prather, Michael J.; Cameron-Smith, Philip

Solar-J is a comprehensive radiative transfer model for the solar spectrum that addresses the needs of both solar heating and photochemistry in Earth system models. Solar-J is a spectral extension of Cloud-J, a standard in many chemical models that calculates photolysis rates in the 0.18–0.8 µm region. The Cloud-J core consists of an eight-stream scattering, plane-parallel radiative transfer solver with corrections for sphericity. Cloud-J uses cloud quadrature to accurately average over correlated cloud layers. It uses the scattering phase function of aerosols and clouds expanded to eighth order and thus avoids isotropic-equivalent approximations prevalent in most solar heating codes. Themore » spectral extension from 0.8 to 12 µm enables calculation of both scattered and absorbed sunlight and thus aerosol direct radiative effects and heating rates throughout the Earth's atmosphere. Furthermore, the Solar-J extension adopts the correlated-k gas absorption bins, primarily water vapor, from the shortwave Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation model (GCM) applications (RRTMG-SW). Solar-J successfully matches RRTMG-SW's tropospheric heating profile in a clear-sky, aerosol-free, tropical atmosphere. Here, we compare both codes in cloudy atmospheres with a liquid-water stratus cloud and an ice-crystal cirrus cloud. For the stratus cloud, both models use the same physical properties, and we find a systematic low bias of about 3 % in planetary albedo across all solar zenith angles caused by RRTMG-SW's two-stream scattering. Discrepancies with the cirrus cloud using any of RRTMG-SW's three different parameterizations are as large as about 20–40 % depending on the solar zenith angles and occur throughout the atmosphere. Effectively, Solar-J has combined the best components of RRTMG-SW and Cloud-J to build a high-fidelity module for the scattering and absorption of sunlight in the Earth's atmosphere, for which the three major components – wavelength

A radiative transfer module for calculating photolysis rates and solar heating in climate models: Solar-J v7.5

DOE PAGES

Hsu, Juno; Prather, Michael J.; Cameron-Smith, Philip; ...

2017-01-01

Solar-J is a comprehensive radiative transfer model for the solar spectrum that addresses the needs of both solar heating and photochemistry in Earth system models. Solar-J is a spectral extension of Cloud-J, a standard in many chemical models that calculates photolysis rates in the 0.18–0.8 µm region. The Cloud-J core consists of an eight-stream scattering, plane-parallel radiative transfer solver with corrections for sphericity. Cloud-J uses cloud quadrature to accurately average over correlated cloud layers. It uses the scattering phase function of aerosols and clouds expanded to eighth order and thus avoids isotropic-equivalent approximations prevalent in most solar heating codes. Themore » spectral extension from 0.8 to 12 µm enables calculation of both scattered and absorbed sunlight and thus aerosol direct radiative effects and heating rates throughout the Earth's atmosphere. Furthermore, the Solar-J extension adopts the correlated-k gas absorption bins, primarily water vapor, from the shortwave Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation model (GCM) applications (RRTMG-SW). Solar-J successfully matches RRTMG-SW's tropospheric heating profile in a clear-sky, aerosol-free, tropical atmosphere. Here, we compare both codes in cloudy atmospheres with a liquid-water stratus cloud and an ice-crystal cirrus cloud. For the stratus cloud, both models use the same physical properties, and we find a systematic low bias of about 3 % in planetary albedo across all solar zenith angles caused by RRTMG-SW's two-stream scattering. Discrepancies with the cirrus cloud using any of RRTMG-SW's three different parameterizations are as large as about 20–40 % depending on the solar zenith angles and occur throughout the atmosphere. Effectively, Solar-J has combined the best components of RRTMG-SW and Cloud-J to build a high-fidelity module for the scattering and absorption of sunlight in the Earth's atmosphere, for which the three major components – wavelength

Model for Cumulative Solar Heavy Ion Energy and LET Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, Mike; Barth, Janet; Stauffer, Craig; Jordan, Tom; Mewaldt, Richard

2007-01-01

A probabilistic model of cumulative solar heavy ion energy and lineary energy transfer (LET) spectra is developed for spacecraft design applications. Spectra are given as a function of confidence level, mission time period during solar maximum and shielding thickness. It is shown that long-term solar heavy ion fluxes exceed galactic cosmic ray fluxes during solar maximum for shielding levels of interest. Cumulative solar heavy ion fluences should therefore be accounted for in single event effects rate calculations and in the planning of space missions.

Stochastic Fluctuations in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonneau, Paul; Dikpati, Mausumi

2000-11-01

We investigate the effect of stochastic fluctuations on a flux transport model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. Specifically, we make use of our recent flux transport model (Dikpati & Charbonneau) to investigate the consequences of introducing large-amplitude stochastic fluctuations in either or both the meridional flow and poloidal source term in the model. Solar cycle-like oscillatory behavior persists even for fluctuation amplitudes as high as 300%, thus demonstrating the inherent robustness of this class of solar cycle models. We also find that high-amplitude fluctuations lead to a spread of cycle amplitude and duration showing a statistically significant anticorrelation, comparable to that observed in sunspot data. This is a feature of the solar cycle that is notoriously difficult to reproduce with dynamo models based on mean field electrodynamics and relying only on nonlinearities associated with the back-reaction of the Lorentz force to produce amplitude modulation. Another noteworthy aspect of our flux transport model is the fact that meridional circulation in the convective envelope acts as a ``clock'' regulating the tempo of the solar cycle; shorter-than-average cycles are typically soon followed by longer-than-average cycles. In other words, the oscillation exhibits good phase locking, a property that also characterizes the solar activity cycle. This shows up quite clearly in our model, but we argue that it is in fact a generic property of flux transport models based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and relies on meridional circulation as the primary magnetic field transport agent.

Origin and structures of solar eruptions II: Magnetic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yang; Cheng, Xin; Ding, MingDe

2017-07-01

The topology and dynamics of the three-dimensional magnetic field in the solar atmosphere govern various solar eruptive phenomena and activities, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and filaments/prominences. We have to observe and model the vector magnetic field to understand the structures and physical mechanisms of these solar activities. Vector magnetic fields on the photosphere are routinely observed via the polarized light, and inferred with the inversion of Stokes profiles. To analyze these vector magnetic fields, we need first to remove the 180° ambiguity of the transverse components and correct the projection effect. Then, the vector magnetic field can be served as the boundary conditions for a force-free field modeling after a proper preprocessing. The photospheric velocity field can also be derived from a time sequence of vector magnetic fields. Three-dimensional magnetic field could be derived and studied with theoretical force-free field models, numerical nonlinear force-free field models, magnetohydrostatic models, and magnetohydrodynamic models. Magnetic energy can be computed with three-dimensional magnetic field models or a time series of vector magnetic field. The magnetic topology is analyzed by pinpointing the positions of magnetic null points, bald patches, and quasi-separatrix layers. As a well conserved physical quantity, magnetic helicity can be computed with various methods, such as the finite volume method, discrete flux tube method, and helicity flux integration method. This quantity serves as a promising parameter characterizing the activity level of solar active regions.

Computer Modelling and Simulation of Solar PV Array Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Nalin Kumar

2003-02-01

The main objective of my PhD research work was to study the behaviour of inter-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays. The approach involved the construction of mathematical models to investigate different types of research problems related to the energy yield, fault tolerance, efficiency and optimal sizing of inter-connected solar PV array systems. My research work can be divided into four different types of research problems: 1. Modeling of inter-connected solar PV array systems to investigate their electrical behavior, 2. Modeling of different inter-connected solar PV array networks to predict their expected operational lifetimes, 3. Modeling solar radiation estimation and its variability, and 4. Modeling of a coupled system to estimate the size of PV array and battery-bank in the stand-alone inter-connected solar PV system where the solar PV system depends on a system providing solar radiant energy. The successful application of mathematics to the above-m entioned problems entailed three phases: 1. The formulation of the problem in a mathematical form using numerical, optimization, probabilistic and statistical methods / techniques, 2. The translation of mathematical models using C++ to simulate them on a computer, and 3. The interpretation of the results to see how closely they correlated with the real data. Array is the most cost-intensive component of the solar PV system. Since the electrical performances as well as life properties of an array are highly sensitive to field conditions, different characteristics of the arrays, such as energy yield, operational lifetime, collector orientation, and optimal sizing were investigated in order to improve their efficiency, fault-tolerance and reliability. Three solar cell interconnection configurations in the array - series-parallel, total-cross-tied, and bridge-linked, were considered. The electrical characteristics of these configurations were investigated to find out one that is comparatively less susceptible to

The Role of Structural Models in the Solar Sail Flight Validation Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John D.

2004-01-01

NASA is currently soliciting proposals via the New Millennium Program ST-9 opportunity for a potential Solar Sail Flight Validation (SSFV) experiment to develop and operate in space a deployable solar sail that can be steered and provides measurable acceleration. The approach planned for this experiment is to test and validate models and processes for solar sail design, fabrication, deployment, and flight. These models and processes would then be used to design, fabricate, and operate scaleable solar sails for future space science missions. There are six validation objectives planned for the ST9 SSFV experiment: 1) Validate solar sail design tools and fabrication methods; 2) Validate controlled deployment; 3) Validate in space structural characteristics (focus of poster); 4) Validate solar sail attitude control; 5) Validate solar sail thrust performance; 6) Characterize the sail's electromagnetic interaction with the space environment. This poster presents a top-level assessment of the role of structural models in the validation process for in-space structural characteristics.

An efficient descriptor model for designing materials for solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alharbi, Fahhad H.; Rashkeev, Sergey N.; El-Mellouhi, Fedwa; Lüthi, Hans P.; Tabet, Nouar; Kais, Sabre

2015-11-01

An efficient descriptor model for fast screening of potential materials for solar cell applications is presented. It works for both excitonic and non-excitonic solar cells materials, and in addition to the energy gap it includes the absorption spectrum (α(E)) of the material. The charge transport properties of the explored materials are modelled using the characteristic diffusion length (Ld) determined for the respective family of compounds. The presented model surpasses the widely used Scharber model developed for bulk heterojunction solar cells. Using published experimental data, we show that the presented model is more accurate in predicting the achievable efficiencies. To model both excitonic and non-excitonic systems, two different sets of parameters are used to account for the different modes of operation. The analysis of the presented descriptor model clearly shows the benefit of including α(E) and Ld in view of improved screening results.

Semiempirical Two-Dimensional Magnetohydrodynamic Model of the Solar Corona and Interplanetary Medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sittler, Edward C., Jr.; Guhathakurta, Madhulika

1999-01-01

We have developed a two-dimensional semiempirical MHD model of the solar corona and solar wind. The model uses empirically derived electron density profiles from white-light coronagraph data measured during the Skylub period and an empirically derived model of the magnetic field which is fitted to observed streamer topologies, which also come from the white-light coronagraph data The electron density model comes from that developed by Guhathakurta and coworkers. The electron density model is extended into interplanetary space by using electron densities derived from the Ulysses plasma instrument. The model also requires an estimate of the solar wind velocity as a function of heliographic latitude and radial component of the magnetic field at 1 AU, both of which can be provided by the Ulysses spacecraft. The model makes estimates as a function of radial distance and latitude of various fluid parameters of the plasma such as flow velocity V, effective temperature T(sub eff), and effective heat flux q(sub eff), which are derived from the equations of conservation of mass, momentum, and energy, respectively. The term effective indicates that wave contributions could be present. The model naturally provides the spiral pattern of the magnetic field far from the Sun and an estimate of the large-scale surface magnetic field at the Sun, which we estimate to be approx. 12 - 15 G. The magnetic field model shows that the large-scale surface magnetic field is dominated by an octupole term. The model is a steady state calculation which makes the assumption of azimuthal symmetry and solves the various conservation equations in the rotating frame of the Sun. The conservation equations are integrated along the magnetic field direction in the rotating frame of the Sun, thus providing a nearly self-consistent calculation of the fluid parameters. The model makes a minimum number of assumptions about the physics of the solar corona and solar wind and should provide a very accurate

Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation in a Solar Dynamo Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikpati, M.

2017-12-01

Despite great advancement in solar dynamo models since the first model by Parker in 1955, there remain many challenges in the quest to build a dynamo-based prediction scheme that can accurately predict the solar cycle features. One of these challenges is to implement modern data assimilation techniques, which have been used in the oceanic and atmospheric prediction models. Development of data assimilation in solar models are in the early stages. Recently, observing system simulation experiments (OSSE's) have been performed using Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation, in the framework of Data Assimilation Research Testbed of NCAR (NCAR-DART), for estimating parameters in a solar dynamo model. I will demonstrate how the selection of ensemble size, number of observations, amount of error in observations and the choice of assimilation interval play important role in parameter estimation. I will also show how the results of parameter reconstruction improve when accuracy in low-latitude observations is increased, despite large error in polar region data. I will then describe how implementation of data assimilation in a solar dynamo model can bring more accuracy in the prediction of polar fields in North and South hemispheres during the declining phase of cycle 24. Recent evidence indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar field during the cycle minima might be a reliable predictor for the next sunspot cycle's amplitude; therefore it is crucial to accurately predict the polar field strength and pattern.

Fluorine in the solar neighborhood: Chemical evolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitoni, E.; Matteucci, F.; Jönsson, H.; Ryde, N.; Romano, D.

2018-04-01

Context. In light of new observational data related to fluorine abundances in solar neighborhood stars, we present chemical evolution models testing various fluorine nucleosynthesis prescriptions with the aim to best fit those new data. Aim. We consider chemical evolution models in the solar neighborhood testing various nucleosynthesis prescriptions for fluorine production with the aim of reproducing the observed abundance ratios [F/O] versus [O/H] and [F/Fe] versus [Fe/H]. We study in detail the effects of various stellar yields on fluorine production. Methods: We adopted two chemical evolution models: the classical two-infall model, which follows the chemical evolution of halo-thick disk and thin disk phases; and the one-infall model, which is designed only for thin disk evolution. We tested the effects on the predicted fluorine abundance ratios of various nucleosynthesis yield sources, that is, asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars, Wolf-Rayet (W-R) stars, Type II and Type Ia supernovae, and novae. Results: The fluorine production is dominated by AGB stars but the W-R stars are required to reproduce the trend of the observed data in the solar neighborhood with our chemical evolution models. In particular, the best model both for the two-infall and one-infall cases requires an increase by a factor of 2 of the W-R yields. We also show that the novae, even if their yields are still uncertain, could help to better reproduce the secondary behavior of F in the [F/O] versus [O/H] relation. Conclusions: The inclusion of the fluorine production by W-R stars seems to be essential to reproduce the new observed ratio [F/O] versus [O/H] in the solar neighborhood. Moreover, the inclusion of novae helps to reproduce the observed fluorine secondary behavior substantially.

NREL: Renewable Resource Data Center - Solar Resource Models and Tools

Science.gov Websites

Solar Resource Models and Tools The Renewable Resource Data Center (RReDC) features the following -supplied hourly average measured global horizontal data. NSRDB Data Viewer Visualize, explore, and download solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Database. PVWatts® Calculator PVWattsÂ

Solar Irradiance Models and Measurements: A Comparison in the 220-240 nm wavelength band

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, Yvonne C.; Ball, Will T.; Krivova, Natalie A.

2012-07-01

Solar irradiance models that assume solar irradiance variations to be due to changes in the solar surface magnetic flux have been successfully used to reconstruct total solar irradiance on rotational as well as cyclical and secular time scales. Modelling spectral solar irradiance is not yet as advanced, and also suffers from a lack of comparison data, in particular on solar cycle time scales. Here, we compare solar irradiance in the 220-240 nm band as modelled with SATIRE-S and measured by different instruments on the UARS and SORCE satellites. We find good agreement between the model and measurements on rotational time scales. The long-term trends, however, show significant differences. Both SORCE instruments, in particular, show a much steeper gradient over the decaying part of cycle 23 than the modelled irradiance or that measured by UARS/SUSIM.

Testing and optical modeling of novel concentrating solar receiver geometries to increase light trapping and effective solar absorptance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yellowhair, Julius; Ho, Clifford K.; Ortega, Jesus D.; Christian, Joshua M.; Andraka, Charles E.

2015-09-01

Concentrating solar power receivers are comprised of panels of tubes arranged in a cylindrical or cubical shape on top of a tower. The tubes contain heat-transfer fluid that absorbs energy from the concentrated sunlight incident on the tubes. To increase the solar absorptance, black paint or a solar selective coating is applied to the surface of the tubes. However, these coatings degrade over time and must be reapplied, which reduces the system performance and increases costs. This paper presents an evaluation of novel receiver shapes and geometries that create a light-trapping effect, thereby increasing the effective solar absorptance and efficiency of the solar receiver. Several prototype shapes were fabricated from Inconel 718 and tested in Sandia's solar furnace at an irradiance of ~30 W/cm2. Photographic methods were used to capture the irradiance distribution on the receiver surfaces. The irradiance profiles were compared to results from raytracing models. The effective solar absorptance was also evaluated using the ray-tracing models. Results showed that relative to a flat plate, the new geometries could increase the effective solar absorptance from 86% to 92% for an intrinsic material absorptance of 86%, and from 60% to 73% for an intrinsic material absorptance of 60%.

A Smoothed Eclipse Model for Solar Electric Propulsion Trajectory Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aziz, Jonathan D.; Scheeres, Daniel J.; Parker, Jeffrey S.; Englander, Jacob A.

2017-01-01

Solar electric propulsion (SEP) is the dominant design option for employing low-thrust propulsion on a space mission. Spacecraft solar arrays power the SEP system but are subject to blackout periods during solar eclipse conditions. Discontinuity in power available to the spacecraft must be accounted for in trajectory optimization, but gradient-based methods require a differentiable power model. This work presents a power model that smooths the eclipse transition from total eclipse to total sunlight with a logistic function. Example trajectories are computed with differential dynamic programming, a second-order gradient-based method.

A numerical model for charge transport and energy conversion of perovskite solar cells.

PubMed

Zhou, Yecheng; Gray-Weale, Angus

2016-02-14

Based on the continuity equations and Poisson's equation, we developed a numerical model for perovskite solar cells. Due to different working mechanisms, the model for perovskite solar cells differs from that of silicon solar cells and Dye Sensitized Solar Cells. The output voltage and current are calculated differently, and in a manner suited in particular to perovskite organohalides. We report a test of our equations against experiment with good agreement. Using this numerical model, it was found that performances of solar cells increase with charge carrier's lifetimes, mobilities and diffusion lengths. The open circuit voltage (Voc) of a solar cell is dependent on light intensities, and charge carrier lifetimes. Diffusion length and light intensity determine the saturated current (Jsc). Additionally, three possible guidelines for the design and fabrication of perovskite solar cells are suggested by our calculations. Lastly, we argue that concentrator perovskite solar cells are promising.

A reconstruction of solar irradiance using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Jiang, Jie; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami

2013-04-01

Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are of considerable interest for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field have been the most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these. It uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. Thus, to reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. To describe the secular change in the irradiance, we used the concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles. With this technique TSI can be reconstructed back to 1610.

Reading The Sun: A Three Dimensional Visual Model of The Solar Environment During Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carranza-fulmer, T. L.; Moldwin, M.

2014-12-01

The sun is a powerful force that has proven to our society that it has a large impact on our lives. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of awareness on how the sun is capable of affecting Earth. The over all idea of "Reading The Sun" installation is to help demonstrate how the sun impacts the Earth, by compiling various data sources from satellites (SOHO, SDO, and STERO) with solar and solar wind models (MAS and ENLIL) to create a comprehensive three dimensional display of the solar environment. It focuses on the current solar maximum of solar cycle 24 and a CME that impacted Earth's magnetic field on February 27, 2014, which triggered geomagnetic storms around the Earth's poles. The CME was an after-effect of a class X4.9 solar flare, which was released from the sun on February 25, 2014. "Reading The Sun" is a 48" x 48" x 48" hanging model of the sun with color coded open opposing magnetic field lines along with various layers of the solar atmosphere, the heliospheric current sheet, and the inner planets. At the center of the xyz axis is the sun with the open magnetic field lines and the heliospheric current sheet permeating inner planetary space. The xyz axes are color coded to represent various types of information with corresponding visual images for the viewer to be able to read the model. Along the z-axis are three colors (yellow, orange, and green) that represent the different layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona) that correspond to three satellite images in various spectrums related to a CME and Solar Flare and the xy-plane shows where the inner planets are in relation to the sun. The exhibit in which "Reading The Sun "is being displayed is called, The Rotation of Language at the Wheather Again Gallery in Rockaway, New York. The intent of the exhibit is to both celebrate as well as present a cautionary tale on the ability of human language to spark and ignite the individual and collective imagination towards an experience

Recent Successes of Wave/Turbulence Driven Models of Solar Wind Acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranmer, S. R.; Hollweg, J. V.; Chandran, B. D.; van Ballegooijen, A. A.

2010-12-01

A key obstacle in the way of producing realistic simulations of the Sun-heliosphere system is the lack of a first-principles understanding of coronal heating. Also, it is still unknown whether the solar wind is "fed" through flux tubes that remain open (and are energized by footpoint-driven wavelike fluctuations) or if mass and energy are input intermittently from closed loops into the open-field regions. In this presentation, we discuss self-consistent models that assume the energy comes from solar Alfven waves that are partially reflected, and then dissipated, by magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. These models have been found to reproduce many of the observed features of the fast and slow solar wind without the need for artificial "coronal heating functions" used by earlier models. For example, the models predict a variation with wind speed in commonly measured ratios of charge states and elemental abundances that agrees with observed trends. This contradicts a commonly held assertion that these ratios can only be produced by the injection of plasma from closed-field regions on the Sun. This presentation also reviews two recent comparisons between the models and empirical measurements: (1) The models successfully predict the amplitude and radial dependence of Faraday rotation fluctuations (FRFs) measured by the Helios probes for heliocentric distances between 2 and 15 solar radii. The FRFs are a particularly sensitive test of turbulence models because they depend not only on the plasma density and Alfven wave amplitude in the corona, but also on the turbulent correlation length. (2) The models predict the correct sense and magnitude of changes seen in the polar high-speed solar wind by Ulysses from the previous solar minimum (1996-1997) to the more recent peculiar minimum (2008-2009). By changing only the magnetic field along the polar magnetic flux tube, consistent with solar and heliospheric observations at the two epochs, the model correctly predicts that the

Semi-transparent shock model for major solar energetic particle events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocharov, Leon

2014-05-01

Production of solar energetic particles in major events typically comprises two stages: (i) the initial stage associated with shocks and magnetic reconnection in solar corona and (ii) the main stage associated with the CME-bow shock in solar wind. The coronal emission of energetic particles from behind the interplanetary shock wave continues for about one hour , being not shielded by the CME shock in solar wind and having the prompt access to particle detectors at 1 AU. On occasion of two well-separated solar eruptions from the same active region, the newly accelerated solar particles may be emitted well behind the previous CME, and those solar particles may penetrate through the interplanetary shock of the previous CME to arrive at the Earth's orbit without significant delay, which is another evidence that high-energy particles from the solar corona can penetrate through travelling interplanetary shocks. Diffusive shock acceleration is fast only if the particle mean free path near the shock is small. The small mean free path (high turbulence level), however, implies that energetic particles from coronal sources could not penetrate through the interplanetary shock, and even the particles accelerated by the interplanetary shock itself could not escape to its far upstream region. If so, they could not be promptly observed at 1 AU. However, high-energy particles in major solar events are detected well before the shock arrival at 1 AU. The theoretical difficulty can be obviated in the framework of the proposed model of a "semitransparent" shock. As in situ plasma observations indicate, the turbulence energy levels in neighboring magnetic tubes of solar wind may differ from each other by more than one order of magnitude. Such an intermittence of coronal and solar wind plasmas can affect energetic particle acceleration in coronal and interplanetary shocks. The new modeling incorporates particle acceleration in the shock front and the particle transport both in parallel

A computer model of solar panel-plasma interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooke, D. L.; Freeman, J. W.

1980-01-01

High power solar arrays for satellite power systems are presently being planned with dimensions of kilometers, and with tens of kilovolts distributed over their surface. Such systems face many plasma interaction problems, such as power leakage to the plasma, particle focusing, and anomalous arcing. These effects cannot be adequately modeled without detailed knowledge of the plasma sheath structure and space charge effects. Laboratory studies of 1 by 10 meter solar array in a simulated low Earth orbit plasma are discussed. The plasma screening process is discussed, program theory is outlined, and a series of calibration models is presented. These models are designed to demonstrate that PANEL is capable of accurate self consistant space charge calculations. Such models include PANEL predictions for the Child-Langmuir diode problem.

Uncertainty Model for Total Solar Irradiance Estimation on Australian Rooftops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Saadi, Hassan; Zivanovic, Rastko; Al-Sarawi, Said

2017-11-01

The installations of solar panels on Australian rooftops have been in rise for the last few years, especially in the urban areas. This motivates academic researchers, distribution network operators and engineers to accurately address the level of uncertainty resulting from grid-connected solar panels. The main source of uncertainty is the intermittent nature of radiation, therefore, this paper presents a new model to estimate the total radiation incident on a tilted solar panel. Where a probability distribution factorizes clearness index, the model is driven upon clearness index with special attention being paid for Australia with the utilization of best-fit-correlation for diffuse fraction. The assessment of the model validity is achieved with the adoption of four goodness-of-fit techniques. In addition, the Quasi Monte Carlo and sparse grid methods are used as sampling and uncertainty computation tools, respectively. High resolution data resolution of solar irradiations for Adelaide city were used for this assessment, with an outcome indicating a satisfactory agreement between actual data variation and model.

JEDI Concentrating Solar Power Model | Jobs and Economic Development Impact

Science.gov Websites

Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Concentrating Solar Power Model allows users to estimate economic development impacts from concentrating solar power projects and includes default information that can be

[Comparison of three daily global solar radiation models].

PubMed

Yang, Jin-Ming; Fan, Wen-Yi; Zhao, Ying-Hui

2014-08-01

Three daily global solar radiation estimation models ( Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al.) were analyzed and compared using data of 13 weather stations from 1982 to 2012 from three northeastern provinces and eastern Inner Mongolia. After cross-validation analysis, the result showed that mean absolute error (MAE) for each model was 1.71, 2.83 and 1.68 MJ x m(-2) x d(-1) respectively, showing that Å-P model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. which used percentage of sunshine had an advantage over Thornton-Running model which didn't use percentage of sunshine. Model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. played a good effect on the situation of non-sunshine, and its MAE and bias percentage were 18.5% and 33.8% smaller than those of Å-P model, respectively. High precision results could be obtained by using the simple linear model of Å-P. Å-P model, Thornton-Running model and model provided by Liu Ke-qun et al. overvalued daily global solar radiation by 12.2%, 19.2% and 9.9% respectively. MAE for each station varied little with the spatial change of location, and annual MAE decreased with the advance of years. The reason for this might be that the change of observation accuracy caused by the replacement of radiation instrument in 1993. MAEs for rainy days, non-sunshine days and warm seasons of the three models were greater than those for days without rain, sunshine days and cold seasons respectively, showing that different methods should be used for different weather conditions on estimating solar radiation with meteorological elements.

Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

2012-01-01

We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

Modeling solar wind with boundary conditions from interplanetary scintillations

DOE PAGES

Manoharan, P.; Kim, T.; Pogorelov, N. V.; ...

2015-09-30

Interplanetary scintillations make it possible to create three-dimensional, time- dependent distributions of the solar wind velocity. Combined with the magnetic field observations in the solar photosphere, they help perform solar wind simulations in a genuinely time-dependent way. Interplanetary scintillation measurements from the Ooty Radio Astronomical Observatory in India provide directions to multiple stars and may assure better resolution of transient processes in the solar wind. In this paper, we present velocity distributions derived from Ooty observations and compare them with those obtained with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. We also present our simulations of the solar wind flow from 0.1 AUmore » to 1 AU with the boundary conditions based on both Ooty and WSA data.« less

Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L.

2016-12-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models.

Solar Cycle Variations and Equatorial Oscillations: Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayr, H. G.; Mengel, J. G.; Drob, D. P.; Chan, K. L.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle, It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes referred to as "downward control". Relatively small changes in solar radiative forcing can produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but this in turn can produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D (two-dimensional) version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1 % at the surface to 1 % at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is inconsequential. At 20-km the differences in the modeled wind velocities are as large as 5 m/s. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing (through the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO)) acts as a strong pacemaker to lockup the

Steady State Model for Solar Coronal Loops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, L.; Asgari-Targhi, M.

2017-12-01

Solar coronal loops on the surface of the sun provide background magnetic and plasma structures for the release of a significant amount of the sun's energy, through energetic solar flares and coronal mass ejections and more gradual processes. Understanding their steady states is the first step in understanding loop dynamics. A consistent MHD steady state model, for a curved magnetic flux rope that contains plasma, has been developed[1] for simple coronal loops with both ends anchored in the photosphere. Plasma pressure or current makes the loop unstable to expansion in major radius and must be balanced by external forces, such as the solar gravity. The MHD momentum equation has a well defined small parameter ordering in the loop inverse aspect ratio ɛ=a/Ro (minor/major radius). Different types of common coronal loops fall in different parameter regimes, determined by the relative values of the plasma beta β=po/(Bo2/2μo), the MHD gravity parameter Ĝ≡ga/vA2 (the gravitational acceleration g normalized to the minor radius a and shear Alfvén velocity vA), and ɛ. The largest possible gravity, Ĝ ɛ1β, corresponds to the largest loops because it reduces the plasma density at the top of the loop exponentially compared to its lower ends, reducing the downward gravitational force -ρĜ there. The thin loops that are ubiquitous in solar active regions have ``high'' beta, β ɛ1, for ɛ≃0.02, and fit the predicted model scalings. The thicker loops that can give rise to flares and CMEs have ``low'' beta, β ɛ2. Cool loops, such as solar filaments outside active regions, that have a central pressure lower than that of the surrounding corona would have the strongest stability against radial expansion. The model raises a number of questions about the connection of loops to the photosphere and the force-free nature of the magnetic field there. [1] L. Sugiyama, M. Asgari-Targhi, Phys. Plasmas 24, 022904 (2017).

Electro-optical modeling of bulk heterojunction solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchartz, Thomas; Pieters, Bart E.; Taretto, Kurt; Rau, Uwe

2008-11-01

We introduce a model for charge separation in bulk heterojunction solar cells that combines exciton transport to the interface between donor and acceptor phases with the dissociation of the bound electron/hole pair. We implement this model into a standard semiconductor device simulator, thereby creating a convenient method to simulate the optical and electrical characteristics of a bulk heterojunction solar cell with a commercially available program. By taking into account different collection probabilities for the excitons in the polymer and the fullerene, we are able to reproduce absorptance, internal and external quantum efficiency, as well as current/voltage curves of bulk heterojunction solar cells. We further investigate the influence of mobilities of the free excitons as well as the mobilities of the free charge carriers on the performance of bulk heterojunction solar cells. We find that, in general, the highest efficiencies are achieved with the highest mobilities. However, an optimum finite mobility of free charge carriers can result from a large recombination velocity at the contacts. In contrast, Langevin-type of recombination cannot lead to finite optimum mobilities even though this mechanism has a strong dependence on the free carrier mobilities.

FUPSOL: Modelling the Future and Past Solar Influence on Earth Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anet, J. G.; Rozanov, E.; Peter, T.

2012-04-01

Global warming is becoming one of the main threats to mankind. There is growing evidence that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant factor since about 1970. At the same time natural factors of climate change such as solar and volcanic forcings cannot be neglected on longer time scales. Despite growing scientific efforts over the last decades in both, observations and simulations, the uncertainty of the solar contribution to the past climate change remained unacceptably high (IPCC, 2007), the reasons being on one hand missing observations of solar irradiance prior to the satellite era, and on the other hand a majority of models so far not including all processes relevant for solar-climate interactions. This project aims at elucidating the processes governing the effects of solar activity variations on Earth's climate. We use the state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-climate model (AOCCM) SOCOL (Schraner et al, 2008) developed in Switzerland by coupling the community Earth System Model (ESM) COSMOS distributed by MPI for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) with a comprehensive atmospheric chemistry module. The model solves an extensive set of equations describing the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean, radiative transfer, transport of species, their chemical transformations, cloud formation and the hydrological cycle. The intention is to show how past solar variations affected climate and how the decrease in solar forcing expected for the next decades will affect climate on global and regional scales. We will simulate the global climate system behavior during Dalton minimum (1790 and 1830) and first half of 21st century with a series of multiyear ensemble experiments and perform these experiments using all known anthropogenic and natural climate forcing taken in different combinations to understand the effects of solar irradiance in different spectral regions and particle precipitation variability. Further on, we will quantify the solar

An economic model for passive solar designs in commercial environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, J. W.

1980-06-01

The model incorporates a life cycle costing approach that focuses on the costs of purchase, installation, maintenance, repairs, replacement, and energy. It includes a detailed analysis of tax laws affecting the use of solar energy in commercial buildings. Possible methods of treating difficult to measure benefits and costs, such as effects of the passive solar design on resale value of the building and on lighting costs, rental income from the building, and the use of commercial space, are presented. The model is illustrated in two case examples of prototypical solar design for low rise commercial buildings in an urban setting.

Validation, Optimization and Simulation of a Solar Thermoelectric Generator Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madkhali, Hadi Ali; Hamil, Ali; Lee, HoSung

2017-12-01

This study explores thermoelectrics as a viable option for small-scale solar thermal applications. Thermoelectric technology is based on the Seebeck effect, which states that a voltage is induced when a temperature gradient is applied to the junctions of two differing materials. This research proposes to analyze, validate, simulate, and optimize a prototype solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) model in order to increase efficiency. The intent is to further develop STEGs as a viable and productive energy source that limits pollution and reduces the cost of energy production. An empirical study (Kraemer et al. in Nat Mater 10:532, 2011) on the solar thermoelectric generator reported a high efficiency performance of 4.6%. The system had a vacuum glass enclosure, a flat panel (absorber), thermoelectric generator and water circulation for the cold side. The theoretical and numerical approach of this current study validated the experimental results from Kraemer's study to a high degree. The numerical simulation process utilizes a two-stage approach in ANSYS software for Fluent and Thermal-Electric Systems. The solar load model technique uses solar radiation under AM 1.5G conditions in Fluent. This analytical model applies Dr. Ho Sung Lee's theory of optimal design to improve the performance of the STEG system by using dimensionless parameters. Applying this theory, using two cover glasses and radiation shields, the STEG model can achieve a highest efficiency of 7%.

Reliability models applicable to space telescope solar array assembly system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patil, S. A.

1986-01-01

A complex system may consist of a number of subsystems with several components in series, parallel, or combination of both series and parallel. In order to predict how well the system will perform, it is necessary to know the reliabilities of the subsystems and the reliability of the whole system. The objective of the present study is to develop mathematical models of the reliability which are applicable to complex systems. The models are determined by assuming k failures out of n components in a subsystem. By taking k = 1 and k = n, these models reduce to parallel and series models; hence, the models can be specialized to parallel, series combination systems. The models are developed by assuming the failure rates of the components as functions of time and as such, can be applied to processes with or without aging effects. The reliability models are further specialized to Space Telescope Solar Arrray (STSA) System. The STSA consists of 20 identical solar panel assemblies (SPA's). The reliabilities of the SPA's are determined by the reliabilities of solar cell strings, interconnects, and diodes. The estimates of the reliability of the system for one to five years are calculated by using the reliability estimates of solar cells and interconnects given n ESA documents. Aging effects in relation to breaks in interconnects are discussed.

PROM7: 1D modeler of solar filaments or prominences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouttebroze, P.

2018-05-01

PROM7 is an update of PROM4 (ascl:1306.004) and computes simple models of solar prominences and filaments using Partial Radiative Distribution (PRD). The models consist of plane-parallel slabs standing vertically above the solar surface. Each model is defined by 5 parameters: temperature, density, geometrical thickness, microturbulent velocity and height above the solar surface. It solves the equations of radiative transfer, statistical equilibrium, ionization and pressure equilibria, and computes electron and hydrogen level population and hydrogen line profiles. Moreover, the code treats calcium atom which is reduced to 3 ionization states (Ca I, Ca II, CA III). Ca II ion has 5 levels which are useful for computing 2 resonance lines (H and K) and infrared triplet (to 8500 A).

Modeling and analysis of cascade solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, F. D.

1986-01-01

A brief review is given of the present status of the development of cascade solar cells. It is known that photovoltaic efficiencies can be improved through this development. The designs and calculations of the multijunction cells, however, are quite complicated. The main goal is to find a method which is a compromise between accuracy and simplicity for modeling a cascade solar cell. Three approaches are presently under way, among them (1) equivalent circuit approach, (2) numerical approach, and (3) analytical approach. Here, the first and the second approaches are discussed. The equivalent circuit approach using SPICE (Simulation Program, Integrated Circuit Emphasis) to the cascade cells and the cascade-cell array is highlighted. The methods of extracting parameters for modeling are discussed.

Realistic Modeling of Multi-Scale MHD Dynamics of the Solar Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitiashvili, Irina; Mansour, Nagi N.; Wray, Alan; Couvidat, Sebastian; Yoon, Seokkwan; Kosovichev, Alexander

2014-01-01

Realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations open new perspectives for understanding the turbulent dynamics of the solar surface, its coupling to the atmosphere, and the physical mechanisms of generation and transport of non-thermal energy. Traditionally, plasma eruptions and wave phenomena in the solar atmosphere are modeled by prescribing artificial driving mechanisms using magnetic or gas pressure forces that might arise from magnetic field emergence or reconnection instabilities. In contrast, our 'ab initio' simulations provide a realistic description of solar dynamics naturally driven by solar energy flow. By simulating the upper convection zone and the solar atmosphere, we can investigate in detail the physical processes of turbulent magnetoconvection, generation and amplification of magnetic fields, excitation of MHD waves, and plasma eruptions. We present recent simulation results of the multi-scale dynamics of quiet-Sun regions, and energetic effects in the atmosphere and compare with observations. For the comparisons we calculate synthetic spectro-polarimetric data to model observational data of SDO, Hinode, and New Solar Telescope.

Multifluid Simulations of the Global Solar Wind Including Pickup Ions and Turbulence Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Melvyn L.; Usmanov, A. V.

2011-01-01

I will describe a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar wind that takes into account turbulent heating of the wind by velocity and magnetic fluctuations as well as a variety of effects produced by interstellar pickup protons. The interstellar pickup protons are treated in the model as one fluid and the protons and electrons are treated together as a second fluid. The model equations include a Reynolds decomposition of the plasma velocity and magnetic field into mean and fluctuating quantities, as well as energy transfer from interstellar pickup protons to solar wind protons that results in the deceleration of the solar wind. The model is used to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. The simulation assumes that the background magnetic field on the Sun is either a dipole (aligned or tilted with respect to the solar rotation axis) or one that is deduced from solar magnetograms.

Probabilistic Models for Solar Particle Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, W. F.; Xapsos, M. A.; Welton, A. M.

2009-01-01

Probabilistic Models of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are used in space mission design studies to provide a description of the worst-case radiation environment that the mission must be designed to tolerate.The models determine the worst-case environment using a description of the mission and a user-specified confidence level that the provided environment will not be exceeded. This poster will focus on completing the existing suite of models by developing models for peak flux and event-integrated fluence elemental spectra for the Z>2 elements. It will also discuss methods to take into account uncertainties in the data base and the uncertainties resulting from the limited number of solar particle events in the database. These new probabilistic models are based on an extensive survey of SPE measurements of peak and event-integrated elemental differential energy spectra. Attempts are made to fit the measured spectra with eight different published models. The model giving the best fit to each spectrum is chosen and used to represent that spectrum for any energy in the energy range covered by the measurements. The set of all such spectral representations for each element is then used to determine the worst case spectrum as a function of confidence level. The spectral representation that best fits these worst case spectra is found and its dependence on confidence level is parameterized. This procedure creates probabilistic models for the peak and event-integrated spectra.

Advanced Methods for Incorporating Solar Energy Technologies into Electric Sector Capacity-Expansion Models: Literature Review and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, P.; Eurek, K.; Margolis, R.

2014-07-01

Because solar power is a rapidly growing component of the electricity system, robust representations of solar technologies should be included in capacity-expansion models. This is a challenge because modeling the electricity system--and, in particular, modeling solar integration within that system--is a complex endeavor. This report highlights the major challenges of incorporating solar technologies into capacity-expansion models and shows examples of how specific models address those challenges. These challenges include modeling non-dispatchable technologies, determining which solar technologies to model, choosing a spatial resolution, incorporating a solar resource assessment, and accounting for solar generation variability and uncertainty.

An Update to the NASA Reference Solar Sail Thrust Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heaton, Andrew F.; Artusio-Glimpse, Alexandra B.

2015-01-01

An optical model of solar sail material originally derived at JPL in 1978 has since served as the de facto standard for NASA and other solar sail researchers. The optical model includes terms for specular and diffuse reflection, thermal emission, and non-Lambertian diffuse reflection. The standard coefficients for these terms are based on tests of 2.5 micrometer Kapton sail material coated with 100 nm of aluminum on the front side and chromium on the back side. The original derivation of these coefficients was documented in an internal JPL technical memorandum that is no longer available. Additionally more recent optical testing has taken place and different materials have been used or are under consideration by various researchers for solar sails. Here, where possible, we re-derive the optical coefficients from the 1978 model and update them to accommodate newer test results and sail material. The source of the commonly used value for the front side non-Lambertian coefficient is not clear, so we investigate that coefficient in detail. Although this research is primarily designed to support the upcoming NASA NEA Scout and Lunar Flashlight solar sail missions, the results are also of interest to the wider solar sail community.

An All Sky Instantaneous Shortwave Solar Radiation Model for Mountainous Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Li, X.; She, J.

2017-12-01

In mountainous terrain, solar radiation shows high heterogeneity in space and time because of strong terrain shading effects and significant variability of cloud cover. While existing GIS-based solar radiation models simulate terrain shading effects with relatively high accuracy and models based on satellite datasets consider fine scale cloud attenuation processes, none of these models have considered the geometrical relationships between sun, cloud, and terrain, which are important over mountainous terrain. In this research we propose sky cloud maps to represent cloud distribution in a hemispherical sky using MODIS cloud products. By overlaying skyshed (visible area in the hemispherical sky derived from DEM), sky map, and sky cloud maps, we are able to consider both terrain shading effects and anisotropic cloud attenuation in modeling instantaneous direct and diffuse solar radiation in mountainous terrain. The model is evaluated with field observations from three automatic weather stations in the Tizinafu watershed in the Kunlun Mountains of northwestern China. Overall, under all sky conditions, the model overestimates instantaneous global solar radiation with a mean absolute relative difference (MARD) of 22%. The model is also evaluated under clear sky (clearness index of more than 0.75) and partly cloudy sky (clearness index between 0.35 and 0.75) conditions with MARDs of 5.98% and 23.65% respectively. The MARD for very cloudy sky (clearness index less than 0.35) is relatively high. But these days occur less than 1% of the time. The model is sensitive to DEM data error, algorithms used in delineating skyshed, and errors in MODIS atmosphere and cloud products. Our model provides a novel approach for solar radiation modeling in mountainous areas.

Aeroheating Thermal Model Correlation for Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Solar Array

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amundsen, Ruth M.; Dec, John A.; George, Benjamin E.

2003-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Spacecraft made use of aerobraking to gradually reduce its orbit period from a highly elliptical insertion orbit to its final science orbit. Aerobraking produces a high heat load on the solar arrays, which have a large surface area exposed to the airflow and relatively low mass. To accurately model the complex behavior during aerobraking, the thermal analysis needed to be tightly coupled to the spatially varying, time dependent aerodynamic heating. Also, the thermal model itself needed to accurately capture the behavior of the solar array and its response to changing heat load conditions. The correlation of the thermal model to flight data allowed a validation of the modeling process, as well as information on what processes dominate the thermal behavior. Correlation in this case primarily involved detailing the thermal sensor nodes, using as-built mass to modify material property estimates, refining solar cell assembly properties, and adding detail to radiation and heat flux boundary conditions. This paper describes the methods used to develop finite element thermal models of the MGS solar array and the correlation of the thermal model to flight data from the spacecraft drag passes. Correlation was made to data from four flight thermal sensors over three of the early drag passes. Good correlation of the model was achieved, with a maximum difference between the predicted model maximum and the observed flight maximum temperature of less than 5%. Lessons learned in the correlation of this model assisted in validating a similar model and method used for the Mars Odyssey solar array aeroheating analysis, which were used during onorbit operations.

Solar energy in buildings solved by building information modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chudikova, B.; Faltejsek, M.

2018-03-01

Building lead us to use renewable energy sources for all types of buildings. The use of solar energy is the alternatives that can be applied in a good ratio of space, price, and resultant benefits. Building Information Modelling is a modern and effective way of dealing with buildings with regard to all aspects of the life cycle. The basis is careful planning and simulation in the pre-investment phase, where it is possible to determine the effective result and influence the lifetime of the building and the cost of its operation. By simulating, analysing and insert a building model into its future environment where climate conditions and surrounding buildings play a role, it is possible to predict the usability of the solar energy and establish an ideal model. Solar systems also very affect the internal layout of buildings. Pre-investment phase analysis, with a view to future aspects, will ensure that the resulting building will be both low-energy and environmentally friendly.

Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ermolli, I.; Matthes, K.; Dudok de Wit, T.; Krivova, N. A.; Tourpali, K.; Weber, M.; Unruh, Y. C.; Gray, L.; Langematz, U.; Pilewskie, P.; Rozanov, E.; Schmutz, W.; Shapiro, A.; Solanki, S. K.; Woods, T. N.

2013-04-01

The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth's atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth's climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earth's atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We investigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and modelled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities. We show that the SORCE measurements are difficult to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI models. Of the five SSI models discussed here, specifically NRLSSI (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance), SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Satellite era), COSI (COde for Solar Irradiance), SRPM (Solar Radiation Physical Modelling), and OAR (Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma), only one shows a behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitatively resembling that of the recent SORCE

Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles

2004-01-01

Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua; ...

2016-01-25

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

One-Dimensional Fast Transient Simulator for Modeling Cadmium Sulfide/Cadmium Telluride Solar Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Da

Solar energy, including solar heating, solar architecture, solar thermal electricity and solar photovoltaics, is one of the primary alternative energy sources to fossil fuel. Being one of the most important techniques, significant research has been conducted in solar cell efficiency improvement. Simulation of various structures and materials of solar cells provides a deeper understanding of device operation and ways to improve their efficiency. Over the last two decades, polycrystalline thin-film Cadmium-Sulfide and Cadmium-Telluride (CdS/CdTe) solar cells fabricated on glass substrates have been considered as one of the most promising candidate in the photovoltaic technologies, for their similar efficiency and low costs when compared to traditional silicon-based solar cells. In this work a fast one dimensional time-dependent/steady-state drift-diffusion simulator, accelerated by adaptive non-uniform mesh and automatic time-step control, for modeling solar cells has been developed and has been used to simulate a CdS/CdTe solar cell. These models are used to reproduce transients of carrier transport in response to step-function signals of different bias and varied light intensity. The time-step control models are also used to help convergence in steady-state simulations where constrained material constants, such as carrier lifetimes in the order of nanosecond and carrier mobility in the order of 100 cm2/Vs, must be applied.

A phenomenological model of solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgate, S. A.

1978-01-01

The energy of solar flares is derived from the magnetic energy of fields convected to the sun's surface and subsequently converted to heat and energetic particles within the chromosphere. The circumstances of this conversion in most current models is magnetic flux annihilation at a neutral sheet. An analysis is conducted of the constraints of flux annihilation. It is shown that the present evidence of solar cosmic rays, X-rays, gamma-rays, and total energy suggests a choice of annihilation not at a neutral point, but by an enhanced dissipation of a field-aligned current. The field configuration is related both to its origin and to the extensive theory and laboratory experiments concerned with this configuration in magnetic fusion. The magnetic field model is applied to the August 4 flare. It is shown how the plasma heating in the annihilation region balanced by thermal conduction leads to a plasma temperature of about 20 million deg K.

Development of circuit model for arcing on solar panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, Bhoomi K.; Deshpande, S. P.; Mukherjee, S.; Gupta, S. B.; Ranjan, M.; Rane, R.; Vaghela, N.; Acharya, V.; Sudhakar, M.; Sankaran, M.; Suresh, E. P.

2010-02-01

The increased requirements of payload capacity of the satellites have resulted in much higher power requirements of the satellites. In order to minimize the energy loss during power transmission due to cable loss, use of high voltage solar panels becomes necessary. When a satellite encounters space plasma it floats negatively with respect to the surrounding space plasma environment. At high voltage, charging and discharging on solar panels causes the power system breakdown. Once a solar panel surface is charged and potential difference between surface insulator and conductor exceeds certain value, electrostatic discharge (ESD) may occur. This ESD may trigger a secondary arc that can destroy the solar panel circuit. ESD is also called as primary or minor arc and secondary is called major arc. The energy of minor arc is supplied by the charge stored in the coverglass of solar array and is a pulse of typically several 100 ns to several 100 μs duration. The damage caused by minor arc is less compared to major arcs, but it is observed that the minor arc is cause of major arc. Therefore it is important to develop an understanding of minor arc and mitigation techniques. In this paper we present a linear circuit analysis for minor arcs on solar panels. To study arcing event, a ground experimental facility to simulate space plasma environment has been developed at Facilitation Centre for Industrial Plasma Technologies (Institute for Plasma Research) in collaboration with Indian Space Research Organization's ISRO Satellite Technology Centre (ISAC). A linear circuit model has been developed to explain the experimental results by representing the coverglass, solar cell interconnect and wiring by an LCR circuit and the primary arc by an equivalent LR circuit. The aim of the circuit analysis is to predict the arc current which flows through the arc plasma. It is established from the model that the current depends on various parameters like potential difference between insulator

Models of the Solar Atmospheric Response to Flare Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allred, Joel

2011-01-01

I will present models of the solar atmospheric response to flare heating. The models solve the equations of non-LTE radiation hydrodynamics with an electron beam added as a flare energy source term. Radiative transfer is solved in detail for many important optically thick hydrogen and helium transitions and numerous optically thin EUV lines making the models ideally suited to study the emission that is produced during flares. I will pay special attention to understanding key EUV lines as well the mechanism for white light production. I will also present preliminary results of how the model solar atmosphere responds to Fletcher & Hudson type flare heating. I will compare this with the results from flare simulations using the standard thick target model.

A Solar Model with g-Modes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolff, Charles L.; Niemann, Hasso (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Good evidence is assembled showing that the Suit's core arid surface vary on time scales from a month to a decade arid that a number of scales are similar. The most plausible source for numerous long time scales and periodicities is long-lived global oscillations. This suggests g-modes (oscillations restored mainly by buoyancy) because they particularly affect the core and base of the convective envelope, which then indirectly modulates the surface. Also, standing g-modes have rotational properties that match many observed periodicities. But the standard solar model (SSM) has a static core and excites few if any g-modes. making new interior structures worth exploring. The model outlined here assumes two well mixed shells near 0.18 and 0.68 R, (13 = solar radius) where sound speed data shows sharp deviations from the SSM. Mixing is sustained by flows driven by the oscillations. The shells form a cavity that excludes g-modes from their main damping region below 0.1 R, assisting their net excitation and increasing their oscillation periods by at least a factor of two and probably much more. In terms of the solar luminosity L, the modes transport up through the cavity a power approx. 0.004 L as a lower limit and 0.11 L as all upper limit. The modes dissipate energy in the outer shell and cool the inner shell, asymmetrically in each case, and this stimulates occasional convective events whose response time is typically 0.8 years longer near the inner shell. Such events cool the core and reduce neutrino flux while heating the envelope and increasing solar activity. This gives a physical basis for a well mixed Sun with low neutrino flux and basis for the observed anticorrelation and lag of neutrino behind surface activity.

Theoretical models of Kapton heating in solar array geometries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, Thomas L.

1992-01-01

In an effort to understand pyrolysis of Kapton in solar arrays, a computational heat transfer program was developed. This model allows for the different materials and widely divergent length scales of the problem. The present status of the calculation indicates that thin copper traces surrounded by Kapton and carrying large currents can show large temperature increases, but the other configurations seen on solar arrays have adequate heat sinks to prevent substantial heating of the Kapton. Electron currents from the ambient plasma can also contribute to heating of thin traces. Since Kapton is stable at temperatures as high as 600 C, this indicates that it should be suitable for solar array applications. There are indications that the adhesive sued in solar arrays may be a strong contributor to the pyrolysis problem seen in solar array vacuum chamber tests.

Evaluation of a Revised Interplanetary Shock Prediction Model: 1D CESE-HD-2 Solar-Wind Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Du, A. M.; Du, D.; Sun, W.

2014-08-01

We modified the one-dimensional conservation element and solution element (CESE) hydrodynamic (HD) model into a new version [ 1D CESE-HD-2], by considering the direction of the shock propagation. The real-time performance of the 1D CESE-HD-2 model during Solar Cycle 23 (February 1997 - December 2006) is investigated and compared with those of the Shock Time of Arrival Model ( STOA), the Interplanetary-Shock-Propagation Model ( ISPM), and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 ( HAFv.2). Of the total of 584 flare events, 173 occurred during the rising phase, 166 events during the maximum phase, and 245 events during the declining phase. The statistical results show that the success rates of the predictions by the 1D CESE-HD-2 model for the rising, maximum, declining, and composite periods are 64 %, 62 %, 57 %, and 61 %, respectively, with a hit window of ± 24 hours. The results demonstrate that the 1D CESE-HD-2 model shows the highest success rates when the background solar-wind speed is relatively fast. Thus, when the background solar-wind speed at the time of shock initiation is enhanced, the forecasts will provide potential values to the customers. A high value (27.08) of χ 2 and low p-value (< 0.0001) for the 1D CESE-HD-2 model give considerable confidence for real-time forecasts by using this new model. Furthermore, the effects of various shock characteristics (initial speed, shock duration, background solar wind, longitude, etc.) and background solar wind on the forecast are also investigated statistically.

Spacecraft Charging Current Balance Model Applied to High Voltage Solar Array Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Willis, Emily M.; Pour, Maria Z. A.

2016-01-01

Spacecraft charging induced by high voltage solar arrays can result in power losses and degradation of spacecraft surfaces. In some cases, it can even present safety issues for astronauts performing extravehicular activities. An understanding of the dominant processes contributing to spacecraft charging induced by solar arrays is important to current space missions, such as the International Space Station, and to any future space missions that may employ high voltage solar arrays. A common method of analyzing the factors contributing to spacecraft charging is the current balance model. Current balance models are based on the simple idea that the spacecraft will float to a potential such that the current collecting to the surfaces equals the current lost from the surfaces. However, when solar arrays are involved, these currents are dependent on so many factors that the equation becomes quite complicated. In order for a current balance model to be applied to solar array operations, it must incorporate the time dependent nature of the charging of dielectric surfaces in the vicinity of conductors1-3. This poster will present the factors which must be considered when developing a current balance model for high voltage solar array operations and will compare results of a current balance model with data from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit4 on board the International Space Station.

Modelling the solar wind interaction with Mercury by a quasi-neutral hybrid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallio, E.; Janhunen, P.

2003-11-01

Quasi-neutral hybrid model is a self-consistent modelling approach that includes positively charged particles and an electron fluid. The approach has received an increasing interest in space plasma physics research because it makes it possible to study several plasma physical processes that are difficult or impossible to model by self-consistent fluid models, such as the effects associated with the ions’ finite gyroradius, the velocity difference between different ion species, or the non-Maxwellian velocity distribution function. By now quasi-neutral hybrid models have been used to study the solar wind interaction with the non-magnetised Solar System bodies of Mars, Venus, Titan and comets. Localized, two-dimensional hybrid model runs have also been made to study terrestrial dayside magnetosheath. However, the Hermean plasma environment has not yet been analysed by a global quasi-neutral hybrid model.

New formulation feed method in tariff model of solar PV in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djamal, Muchlishah Hadi; Setiawan, Eko Adhi; Setiawan, Aiman

2017-03-01

Geographically, Indonesia has 18 latitudes that correlated strongly with the potential of solar radiation for the implementation of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. This is becoming the basis assumption to develop a proportional model of Feed In Tariff (FIT), consequently the FIT will be vary, according to the various of latitudes in Indonesia. This paper proposed a new formulation of solar PV FIT based on the potential of solar radiation and some independent variables such as latitude, longitude, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), and also socio-economic. The Principal Component Regression (PCR) method is used to analyzed the correlation of six independent variables C1-C6 then three models of FIT are presented. Model FIT-2 is chosen because it has a small residual value and has higher financial benefit compared to the other models. This study reveals the value of variable FIT associated with solar energy potential in each region, can reduce the total FIT to be paid by the state around 80 billion rupiahs in 10 years of 1 MW photovoltaic operation at each 34 provinces in Indonesia.

The Development of New Solar Indices for use in Thermospheric Density Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tobiska, W. Kent; Bouwer, S. Dave; Bowman, Bruce R.

2006-01-01

New solar indices have been developed to improve thermospheric density modeling for research and operational purposes. Out of 11 new and 4 legacy indices and proxies, we have selected three (F10.7, S10.7, and M10.7) for use in the new JB2006 empirical thermospheric density model. In this work, we report on the development of these solar irradiance indices. The rationale for their use, their definitions, and their characteristics, including the ISO 21348 spectral category and sub-category, wavelength range, solar source temperature region, solar source feature, altitude region of terrestrial atmosphere absorption at unit optical depth, and terrestrial atmosphere thermal processes in the region of maximum energy absorption, are described. We also summarize for each solar index, the facility and instrument(s) used to observe the solar emission, the time frame over which the data exist, the measurement cadence, the data latency, and the research as well as operational availability. The new solar indices are provided in forecast (http://SpaceWx.com) as well as real-time and historical (http://sol.spacenvironment.net/jb2006/) time frames. We describe the forecast methodology, compare results with actual data for active and quiet solar conditions, and compare improvements in F10.7 forecasting with legacy High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) and NOAA SEC forecasts.

Improved Solar-Radiation-Pressure Models for GPS Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bar-Sever, Yoaz; Kuang, Da

2006-01-01

A report describes a series of computational models conceived as an improvement over prior models for determining effects of solar-radiation pressure on orbits of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. These models are based on fitting coefficients of Fourier functions of Sun-spacecraft- Earth angles to observed spacecraft orbital motions.

Comparisons of Measurements and Modeling of Solar Eclipse Effects on VLF Transmissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D. D.; Sojka, J. J.; Marshall, R. A.; Drob, D. P.; Decena, J. C.

2017-12-01

The solar eclipse of 2017 August 21 provides an excellent opportunity to examine Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio signal propagation through the path of the solar eclipse between Navy VLF transmitters and several VLF receivers. The VLF transmitters available for this study radio signal propagation study are NLK in Jim Creek, Washington (24.8 kHz, 192 kW, 48.20N, 121.90W), NML in LaMour, North Dakota (25.2 kHz, 500 kW 46.37N, 93.34W), and NAA in Cutler, Maine (24.0 kHz, 1000 kW, 44.65N, 67.29W). These VLF transmitters provide propagation paths to three VLF receivers at Utah State University (41.75N, 111.76W), Bear Lake Observatory (41.95N, 111.39W), Salt Lake City (40.76N, 111.89W) and one receiver in Boulder, Colorado (40.02N, 105.27W). The solar eclipse shadow will cross all propagations paths during the day and will modify the D region electron density within the solar shadow. The week prior to the solar eclipse will be used to generate a diurnal baseline of VLF single strength for each transmitter-receiver pair. These will be compared to the day of the solar eclipse to identify VLF propagation differences through the solar eclipse shawdow. Additionally, the electron density effects of the week prior and of the solar eclipse day will be modeled using the Data-Driven D Region (DDDR) model [Eccles et al., 2005] with a detailed eclipse solar flux mask. The Long-Wave Propagation Code and the HASEL RF ray-tracing code will be used to generate VLF signal strength for each measured propagation path through the days prior and the solar eclipse day. Model-measurement comparisons will be presented and the D region electron density effects of the solar eclipse will be examined. The DDDR is a time-dependent D region model, which makes it very suitable for the solar eclipse effects on the electron density for the altitude range of 36 to 130 km. Eccles J. V., R. D. Hunsucker, D. Rice, J. J. Sojka (2005), Space weather effects on midlatitude HF propagation paths: Observations and

Comparative Validation of Realtime Solar Wind Forecasting Using the UCSD Heliospheric Tomography Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter; Taktakishvili, Alexandra; Jackson, Bernard; Clover, John; Bisi, Mario; Odstrcil, Dusan

2011-01-01

The University of California, San Diego 3D Heliospheric Tomography Model reconstructs the evolution of heliospheric structures, and can make forecasts of solar wind density and velocity up to 72 hours in the future. The latest model version, installed and running in realtime at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center(CCMC), analyzes scintillations of meter wavelength radio point sources recorded by the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory(STELab) together with realtime measurements of solar wind speed and density recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) Solar Wind Electron Proton Alpha Monitor(SWEPAM).The solution is reconstructed using tomographic techniques and a simple kinematic wind model. Since installation, the CCMC has been recording the model forecasts and comparing them with ACE measurements, and with forecasts made using other heliospheric models hosted by the CCMC. We report the preliminary results of this validation work and comparison with alternative models.

150 kW Class Solar Electric Propulsion Spacecraft Power Architecture Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Aulisio, Michael V.; Loop, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission (SEP TDM), in conjunction with PC Krause and Associates, has created a Simulink-based power architecture model for a 50 kilo-Watt (kW) solar electric propulsion system. NASA has extended this model to investigate 150 kW solar electric propulsion systems. Increasing the power capability to 150 kW is an intermediate step to the anticipated power requirements for Mars and other deep space applications. The high-power solar electric propulsion capability has been identified as a critical part of NASA’s future beyond-low-Earth-orbit for human-crewed exploration missions. This paper presents four versions of a 150 kW architecture, simulation results, and a discussion of their merits.

150 kW Class Solar Electric Propulsion Spacecraft Power Architecture Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Csank, Jeffrey T.; Aulisio, Michael V.; Loop, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Demonstration Mission in conjunction with PC Krause and Associates has created a Simulink-based power architecture model for a 50 kilo-Watt (kW) solar electric propulsion system. NASA has extended this model to investigate 150 kW solar electric propulsion systems. Increasing the power system capability from 50 kW to 150 kW better aligns with the anticipated power requirements for Mars and other deep space explorations. The high-power solar electric propulsion capability has been identified as a critical part of NASAs future beyond-low-Earth-orbit for human-crewed exploration missions. This paper presents multiple 150 kW architectures, simulation results, and a discussion of their merits.

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyatskaya, S.; Hathaway, D.; Winebarger, A.

2007-01-01

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Computing diffuse fraction of global horizontal solar radiation: A model comparison.

PubMed

Dervishi, Sokol; Mahdavi, Ardeshir

2012-06-01

For simulation-based prediction of buildings' energy use or expected gains from building-integrated solar energy systems, information on both direct and diffuse component of solar radiation is necessary. Available measured data are, however, typically restricted to global horizontal irradiance. There have been thus many efforts in the past to develop algorithms for the derivation of the diffuse fraction of solar irradiance. In this context, the present paper compares eight models for estimating diffuse fraction of irradiance based on a database of measured irradiance from Vienna, Austria. These models generally involve mathematical formulations with multiple coefficients whose values are typically valid for a specific location. Subsequent to a first comparison of these eight models, three better performing models were selected for a more detailed analysis. Thereby, the coefficients of the models were modified to account for Vienna data. The results suggest that some models can provide relatively reliable estimations of the diffuse fractions of the global irradiance. The calibration procedure could only slightly improve the models' performance.

A Model of Magnetic Braking of Solar Rotation that Satisfies Observational Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denissenkov, Pavel A.

2010-08-01

The model of magnetic braking of solar rotation considered by Charbonneau & MacGregor has been modified so that it is able to reproduce for the first time the rotational evolution of both the fastest and slowest rotators among solar-type stars in open clusters of different ages, without coming into conflict with other observational constraints, such as the time evolution of the atmospheric Li abundance in solar twins and the thinness of the solar tachocline. This new model assumes that rotation-driven turbulent diffusion, which is thought to amplify the viscosity and magnetic diffusivity in stellar radiative zones, is strongly anisotropic with the horizontal components of the transport coefficients strongly dominating over those in the vertical direction. Also taken into account is the poloidal field decay that helps to confine the width of the tachocline at the solar age. The model's properties are investigated by numerically solving the azimuthal components of the coupled momentum and magnetic induction equations in two dimensions using a finite element method.

Mass-loading of the solar wind at 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behar, E.; Lindkvist, J.; Nilsson, H.; Holmström, M.; Stenberg-Wieser, G.; Ramstad, R.; Götz, C.

2016-11-01

Context. The first long-term in-situ observation of the plasma environment in the vicinity of a comet, as provided by the European Rosetta spacecraft. Aims: Here we offer characterisation of the solar wind flow near 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) and its long term evolution during low nucleus activity. We also aim to quantify and interpret the deflection and deceleration of the flow expected from ionization of neutral cometary particles within the undisturbed solar wind. Methods: We have analysed in situ ion and magnetic field data and combined this with hybrid modeling of the interaction between the solar wind and the comet atmosphere. Results: The solar wind deflection is increasing with decreasing heliocentric distances, and exhibits very little deceleration. This is seen both in observations and in modeled solar wind protons. According to our model, energy and momentum are transferred from the solar wind to the coma in a single region, centered on the nucleus, with a size in the order of 1000 km. This interaction affects, over larger scales, the downstream modeled solar wind flow. The energy gained by the cometary ions is a small fraction of the energy available in the solar wind. Conclusions: The deflection of the solar wind is the strongest and clearest signature of the mass-loading for a small, low-activity comet, whereas there is little deceleration of the solar wind.

Global Fluxon Modeling of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, D. A.; DeForest, C. E.

2017-12-01

The fluxon approach to MHD modeling enables simulations of low-beta plasmas in the absence of undesirable numerical effects such as diffusion and magnetic reconnection. The magnetic field can be modeled as a collection of discrete field lines ("fluxons") containing a set amount of magnetic flux in a prescribed field topology. Due to the fluxon model's pseudo-Lagrangian grid, simulations can be completed in a fraction of the time of traditional grid-based simulations, enabling near-real-time simulations of the global magnetic field structure and its influence on solar wind properties. Using SDO/HMI synoptic magnetograms as lower magnetic boundary conditions, and a separate one-dimensional fluid flow model attached to each fluxon, we compare the resulting fluxon relaxations with other commonly-used global models (such as PFSS), and with white-light images of the corona (including the August 2017 total solar eclipse). Finally, we show the computed magnetic field expansion ratio, and the modeled solar wind speed near the coronal-heliospheric transition. Development of the fluxon MHD model FLUX (the Field Line Universal relaXer), has been funded by NASA's Living with a Star program and by Southwest Research Institute.

Two solar proton fluence models based on ground level enhancement observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raukunen, Osku; Vainio, Rami; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Jiggens, Piers; Heynderickx, Daniel; Dierckxsens, Mark; Crosby, Norma; Ganse, Urs; Siipola, Robert

2018-01-01

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar proton fluences based on ground level enhancement (GLE) observations during solar cycles 19-24. As the basis of our modeling, we utilize a four parameter double power law function (known as the Band function) fits to integral GLE fluence spectra in rigidity. In the first model, the integral and differential fluences for protons with energies between 10 MeV and 1 GeV are calculated using the fits, and the distributions of the fluences at certain energies are modeled with an exponentially cut-off power law function. In the second model, we use a more advanced methodology: by investigating the distributions and relationships of the spectral fit parameters we find that they can be modeled as two independent and two dependent variables. Therefore, instead of modeling the fluences separately at different energies, we can model the shape of the fluence spectrum. We present examples of modeling results and show that the two methodologies agree well except for a short mission duration (1 year) at low confidence level. We also show that there is a reasonable agreement between our models and three well-known solar proton models (JPL, ESP and SEPEM), despite the differences in both the modeling methodologies and the data used to construct the models.

Models of Solar Wind Structures and Their Interaction with the Earth's Space Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watermann, J.; Wintoft, P.; Sanahuja, B.; Saiz, E.; Poedts, S.; Palmroth, M.; Milillo, A.; Metallinou, F.-A.; Jacobs, C.; Ganushkina, N. Y.; Daglis, I. A.; Cid, C.; Cerrato, Y.; Balasis, G.; Aylward, A. D.; Aran, A.

2009-11-01

The discipline of “Space Weather” is built on the scientific foundation of solar-terrestrial physics but with a strong orientation toward applied research. Models describing the solar-terrestrial environment are therefore at the heart of this discipline, for both physical understanding of the processes involved and establishing predictive capabilities of the consequences of these processes. Depending on the requirements, purely physical models, semi-empirical or empirical models are considered to be the most appropriate. This review focuses on the interaction of solar wind disturbances with geospace. We cover interplanetary space, the Earth’s magnetosphere (with the exception of radiation belt physics), the ionosphere (with the exception of radio science), the neutral atmosphere and the ground (via electromagnetic induction fields). Space weather relevant state-of-the-art physical and semi-empirical models of the various regions are reviewed. They include models for interplanetary space, its quiet state and the evolution of recurrent and transient solar perturbations (corotating interaction regions, coronal mass ejections, their interplanetary remnants, and solar energetic particle fluxes). Models of coupled large-scale solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere processes (global magnetohydrodynamic descriptions) and of inner magnetosphere processes (ring current dynamics) are discussed. Achievements in modeling the coupling between magnetospheric processes and the neutral and ionized upper and middle atmospheres are described. Finally we mention efforts to compile comprehensive and flexible models from selections of existing modules applicable to particular regions and conditions in interplanetary space and geospace.

Numerical modeling and experimental testing of a solar grill

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olwi, I.; Khalifa, A.

1993-02-01

The sun provides a free, nonpolluting and everlasting source of energy. Considerable research has been carried out to utilize solar energy for purposes such as water heating, high temperature ovens, and conversion to electrical energy. One of the interesting forms for utilizing solar energy is cooking. The main disadvantage of solar energy systems has been the low efficiency attained in most of its practical applications. It is expected, however, that due to continuing decreases in the availability of other energy sources such as oil and coal, along with the safety problems associated with nuclear energy, man's need for utilization ofmore » solar energy will increase, thus leading him to find the ways and means to develop adequate and efficient solar-powered systems. In camps, where tents are used to accommodate people, cooking is done via conventional gas stoves. This usually takes place in extremely crowded areas which become highly fireprone. Solar oven cookers seem to be a viable alternative considering both economy and safety. Among the various forms of solar cookers, the oven-type solar cooker is known to be the best in terms of efficiency. One of the most practical and efficient forms of solar oven cookers is the outdoor portable solar grill (Bar-B-Q), developed by Khalifa et al. The solar grill is a light and portable unit that utilizes solar energy to grill meat. One of the best types of grilling with this cooker is the well-known Shish Kebab or Bar-B-Q. A detailed description for the design of the solar grill is provided as follows. This paper is aimed at providing experimental results and formulating a numerical model for the solar grill. Results of the two approaches are then compared to verify the validity of the numerical simulation. An experimental and theoretical investigation was conducted on the solar grill in order to study the factors that affect its design and performance.« less

Total solar irradiance reconstruction since 1700 using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Jiang, Jie

Reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past are crucial for studies of solar influence on climate. Models based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic fields have been most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations. Daily magnetograms, such as those from MDI and HMI, provide the most detailed information on the changing distribution of the photospheric magnetic fields. Since such magnetograms are only available from 1974, we used a surface flux transport model to describe the evolution of the magnetic fields on the solar surface due to the effects of differential rotation, meridional circulation, and turbulent diffusivity, before 1974. In this model, the sources of magnetic flux are the active regions, which are introduced based on sunspot group areas, positions, and tilt angles. The RGO record is, however, only available since 1874. Here we present a model of solar irradiance since 1700, which is based on a semi-synthetic sunspot record. The semi-synthetic record was obtained using statistical relationships between sunspot group properties (areas, positions, tilt angles) derived from the RGO record on one hand, and the cycle strength and phase derived from the sunspot group number (Rg) on the other. These relationships were employed to produce daily records of sunspot group positions, areas, and tilt angles before 1874. The semi-synthetic records were fed into the surface flux transport model to simulate daily magnetograms since 1700. By combining the simulated magnetograms with a SATIRE-type model, we then reconstructed total solar irradiance since 1700.

Improved Statistical Model Of 10.7-cm Solar Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vedder, John D.; Tabor, Jill L.

1993-01-01

Improved mathematical model simulates short-term fluctuations of flux of 10.7-cm-wavelength solar radiation during 91-day averaging period. Called "F10.7 flux", important as measure of solar activity and because it is highly correlated with ultraviolet radiation causing fluctuations in heating and density of upper atmosphere. F10.7 flux easily measureable at surface of Earth.

Modelling Solar Energetic Particle Propagation in Realistic Heliospheric Solar Wind Conditions Using a Combined MHD and Stochastic Differential Equation Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijsen, N.; Poedts, S.; Pomoell, J.

2017-12-01

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are high energy particles originating from solar eruptive events. These particles can be energised at solar flare sites during magnetic reconnection events, or in shock waves propagating in front of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These CME-driven shocks are in particular believed to act as powerful accelerators of charged particles throughout their propagation in the solar corona. After escaping from their acceleration site, SEPs propagate through the heliosphere and may eventually reach our planet where they can disrupt the microelectronics on satellites in orbit and endanger astronauts among other effects. Therefore it is of vital importance to understand and thereby build models capable of predicting the characteristics of SEP events. The propagation of SEPs in the heliosphere can be described by the time-dependent focused transport equation. This five-dimensional parabolic partial differential equation can be solved using e.g., a finite difference method or by integrating a set of corresponding first order stochastic differential equations. In this work we take the latter approach to model SEP events under different solar wind and scattering conditions. The background solar wind in which the energetic particles propagate is computed using a magnetohydrodynamic model. This allows us to study the influence of different realistic heliospheric configurations on SEP transport. In particular, in this study we focus on exploring the influence of high speed solar wind streams originating from coronal holes that are located close to the eruption source region on the resulting particle characteristics at Earth. Finally, we discuss our upcoming efforts towards integrating our particle propagation model with time-dependent heliospheric MHD space weather modelling.

Modeling and simulation of the solar concentrator in photovoltaic systems through the application of a new BRDF function model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plachta, Kamil

2016-04-01

The paper presents a new algorithm that uses a combination of two models of BRDF functions: Torrance-Sparrow model and HTSG model. The knowledge of technical parameters of a surface is especially useful in the construction of the solar concentrator. The concentrator directs the reflected solar radiation on the surface of photovoltaic panels, increasing the amount of incident radiance. The software applying algorithm allows to calculate surface parameters of the solar concentrator. Performed simulation showing the share of diffuse component and directional component in reflected stream for surfaces made from particular materials. The impact of share of each component in reflected stream on the efficiency of the solar concentrator and photovoltaic surface has also been described. Subsequently, simulation change the value of voltage, current and power output of monocrystalline photovoltaic panels installed in a solar concentrator system has been made for selected surface of materials solar concentrator.

Self-Consistent and Time-Dependent Solar Wind Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ong, K. K.; Musielak, Z. E.; Rosner, R.; Suess, S. T.; Sulkanen, M. E.

1997-01-01

We describe the first results from a self-consistent study of Alfven waves for the time-dependent, single-fluid magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar wind equations, using a modified version of the ZEUS MHD code. The wind models we examine are radially symmetrical and magnetized; the initial outflow is described by the standard Parker wind solution. Our study focuses on the effects of Alfven waves on the outflow and is based on solving the full set of the ideal nonlinear MHD equations. In contrast to previous studies, no assumptions regarding wave linearity, wave damping, and wave-flow interaction are made; thus, the models naturally account for the back-reaction of the wind on the waves, as well as for the nonlinear interaction between different types of MHD waves. Our results clearly demonstrate when momentum deposition by Alfven waves in the solar wind can be sufficient to explain the origin of fast streams in solar coronal holes; we discuss the range of wave amplitudes required to obtained such fast stream solutions.

MODELING THE SOLAR WIND AT THE ULYSSES , VOYAGER , AND NEW HORIZONS SPACECRAFT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, T. K.; Pogorelov, N. V.; Zank, G. P.

The outer heliosphere is a dynamic region shaped largely by the interaction between the solar wind and the interstellar medium. While interplanetary magnetic field and plasma observations by the Voyager spacecraft have significantly improved our understanding of this vast region, modeling the outer heliosphere still remains a challenge. We simulate the three-dimensional, time-dependent solar wind flow from 1 to 80 astronomical units (au), where the solar wind is assumed to be supersonic, using a two-fluid model in which protons and interstellar neutral hydrogen atoms are treated as separate fluids. We use 1 day averages of the solar wind parameters frommore » the OMNI data set as inner boundary conditions to reproduce time-dependent effects in a simplified manner which involves interpolation in both space and time. Our model generally agrees with Ulysses data in the inner heliosphere and Voyager data in the outer heliosphere. Ultimately, we present the model solar wind parameters extracted along the trajectory of the New Horizons spacecraft. We compare our results with in situ plasma data taken between 11 and 33 au and at the closest approach to Pluto on 2015 July 14.« less

A Comparison between Physics-based and Polytropic MHD Models for Stellar Coronae and Stellar Winds of Solar Analogs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohen, O.

The development of the Zeeman–Doppler Imaging (ZDI) technique has provided synoptic observations of surface magnetic fields of low-mass stars. This led the stellar astrophysics community to adopt modeling techniques that have been used in solar physics using solar magnetograms. However, many of these techniques have been neglected by the solar community due to their failure to reproduce solar observations. Nevertheless, some of these techniques are still used to simulate the coronae and winds of solar analogs. Here we present a comparative study between two MHD models for the solar corona and solar wind. The first type of model is amore » polytropic wind model, and the second is the physics-based AWSOM model. We show that while the AWSOM model consistently reproduces many solar observations, the polytropic model fails to reproduce many of them, and in the cases where it does, its solutions are unphysical. Our recommendation is that polytropic models, which are used to estimate mass-loss rates and other parameters of solar analogs, must first be calibrated with solar observations. Alternatively, these models can be calibrated with models that capture more detailed physics of the solar corona (such as the AWSOM model) and that can reproduce solar observations in a consistent manner. Without such a calibration, the results of the polytropic models cannot be validated, but they can be wrongly used by others.« less

Modeling of organic solar cell using response surface methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suliman, Rajab; Mitul, Abu Farzan; Mohammad, Lal; Djira, Gemechis; Pan, Yunpeng; Qiao, Qiquan

Polymer solar cells have drawn much attention during the past few decades due to their low manufacturing cost and incompatibility for flexible substrates. In solution-processed organic solar cells, the optimal thickness, annealing temperature, and morphology are key components to achieving high efficiency. In this work, response surface methodology (RSM) is used to find optimal fabrication conditions for polymer solar cells. In order to optimize cell efficiency, the central composite design (CCD) with three independent variables polymer concentration, polymer-fullerene ratio, and active layer spinning speed was used. Optimal device performance was achieved using 10.25 mg/ml polymer concentration, 0.42 polymer-fullerene ratio, and 1624 rpm of active layer spinning speed. The predicted response (the efficiency) at the optimum stationary point was found to be 5.23% for the Poly(diketopyrrolopyrrole-terthiophene) (PDPP3T)/PC60BM solar cells. Moreover, 97% of the variation in the device performance was explained by the best model. Finally, the experimental results are consistent with the CCD prediction, which proves that this is a promising and appropriate model for optimum device performance and fabrication conditions.

Modelling and fabrication of high-efficiency silicon solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohatgi, A.; Smith, A. W.; Salami, J.

1991-10-01

This report covers the research conducted on modelling and development of high efficiency silicon solar cells during the period May 1989 to August 1990. First, considerable effort was devoted toward developing a ray tracing program for the photovoltaic community to quantify and optimize surface texturing for solar cells. Second, attempts were made to develop a hydrodynamic model for device simulation. Such a model is somewhat slower than drift-diffusion type models like PC-1D, but it can account for more physical phenomena in the device, such as hot carrier effects, temperature gradients, thermal diffusion, and lattice heat flow. In addition, Fermi-Dirac statistics have been incorporated into the model to deal with heavy doping effects more accurately. The third and final component of the research includes development of silicon cell fabrication capabilities and fabrication of high efficiency silicon cells.

A predictive analytic model for the solar modulation of cosmic rays

DOE PAGES

Cholis, Ilias; Hooper, Dan; Linden, Tim

2016-02-23

An important factor limiting our ability to understand the production and propagation of cosmic rays pertains to the effects of heliospheric forces, commonly known as solar modulation. The solar wind is capable of generating time- and charge-dependent effects on the spectrum and intensity of low-energy (≲10 GeV) cosmic rays reaching Earth. Previous analytic treatments of solar modulation have utilized the force-field approximation, in which a simple potential is adopted whose amplitude is selected to best fit the cosmic-ray data taken over a given period of time. Making use of recently available cosmic-ray data from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, along withmore » measurements of the heliospheric magnetic field and solar wind, we construct a time-, charge- and rigidity-dependent model of solar modulation that can be directly compared to data from a variety of cosmic-ray experiments. Here, we provide a simple analytic formula that can be easily utilized in a variety of applications, allowing us to better predict the effects of solar modulation and reduce the number of free parameters involved in cosmic-ray propagation models.« less

Solar Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, S. T.

2000-01-01

The areas of emphasis are: (1) develop theoretical models of the transient release of magnetic energy in the solar atmosphere, e.g., in solar flares, eruptive prominences, coronal mass ejections, etc.; (2) investigate the role of the Sun's magnetic field in the structuring of solar corona by the development of three-dimensional numerical models that describe the field configuration at various heights in the solar atmosphere by extrapolating the field at the photospheric level; (3) develop numerical models to investigate the physical parameters obtained by the ULYSSES mission; (4) develop numerical and theoretical models to investigate solar activity effects on the solar wind characteristics for the establishment of the solar-interplanetary transmission line; and (5) develop new instruments to measure solar magnetic fields and other features in the photosphere, chromosphere transition region and corona. We focused our investigation on the fundamental physical processes in solar atmosphere which directly effect our Planet Earth. The overall goal is to establish the physical process for the Sun-Earth connections.

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of the solar spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avrett, Eugene H.

1994-01-01

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for nonradiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

A MODEL OF MAGNETIC BRAKING OF SOLAR ROTATION THAT SATISFIES OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Denissenkov, Pavel A., E-mail: pavel.denisenkov@gmail.co

The model of magnetic braking of solar rotation considered by Charbonneau and MacGregor has been modified so that it is able to reproduce for the first time the rotational evolution of both the fastest and slowest rotators among solar-type stars in open clusters of different ages, without coming into conflict with other observational constraints, such as the time evolution of the atmospheric Li abundance in solar twins and the thinness of the solar tachocline. This new model assumes that rotation-driven turbulent diffusion, which is thought to amplify the viscosity and magnetic diffusivity in stellar radiative zones, is strongly anisotropic withmore » the horizontal components of the transport coefficients strongly dominating over those in the vertical direction. Also taken into account is the poloidal field decay that helps to confine the width of the tachocline at the solar age. The model's properties are investigated by numerically solving the azimuthal components of the coupled momentum and magnetic induction equations in two dimensions using a finite element method.« less

Magnetofluid Simulations of the Global Solar Wind Including Pickup Ions and Turbulence Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Melvyn L.; Usmanov, Arcadi V.; Matthaeus, William H.

2011-01-01

I will describe a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar wind that takes into account turbulent heating of the wind by velocity and magnetic fluctuations as well as a variety of effects produced by interstellar pickup protons. In this report, the interstellar pickup protons are treated as one fluid and the protons and electrons are treated together as a second fluid. The model equations include a Reynolds decomposition of the plasma velocity and magnetic field into mean and fluctuating quantities, as well as energy transfer from interstellar pickup protons to solar wind protons that results in the deceleration of the solar wind. The model is used to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. Where possible, the model is compared with Voyager data. Initial results from generalization to a three-fluid model is described elsewhere in this session.

Modeling and analysis of solar distributed generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Rivera, Eduardo Ivan

Recent changes in the global economy are creating a big impact in our daily life. The price of oil is increasing and the number of reserves are less every day. Also, dramatic demographic changes are impacting the viability of the electric infrastructure and ultimately the economic future of the industry. These are some of the reasons that many countries are looking for alternative energy to produce electric energy. The most common form of green energy in our daily life is solar energy. To convert solar energy into electrical energy is required solar panels, dc-dc converters, power control, sensors, and inverters. In this work, a photovoltaic module, PVM, model using the electrical characteristics provided by the manufacturer data sheet is presented for power system applications. Experimental results from testing are showed, verifying the proposed PVM model. Also in this work, three maximum power point tracker, MPPT, algorithms would be presented to obtain the maximum power from a PVM. The first MPPT algorithm is a method based on the Rolle's and Lagrange's Theorems and can provide at least an approximate answer to a family of transcendental functions that cannot be solved using differential calculus. The second MPPT algorithm is based on the approximation of the proposed PVM model using fractional polynomials where the shape, boundary conditions and performance of the proposed PVM model are satisfied. The third MPPT algorithm is based in the determination of the optimal duty cycle for a dc-dc converter and the previous knowledge of the load or load matching conditions. Also, four algorithms to calculate the effective irradiance level and temperature over a photovoltaic module are presented in this work. The main reasons to develop these algorithms are for monitoring climate conditions, the elimination of temperature and solar irradiance sensors, reductions in cost for a photovoltaic inverter system, and development of new algorithms to be integrated with maximum

Deep Learning Based Solar Flare Forecasting Model. I. Results for Line-of-sight Magnetograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xin; Wang, Huaning; Xu, Long; Liu, Jinfu; Li, Rong; Dai, Xinghua

2018-03-01

Solar flares originate from the release of the energy stored in the magnetic field of solar active regions, the triggering mechanism for these flares, however, remains unknown. For this reason, the conventional solar flare forecast is essentially based on the statistic relationship between solar flares and measures extracted from observational data. In the current work, the deep learning method is applied to set up the solar flare forecasting model, in which forecasting patterns can be learned from line-of-sight magnetograms of solar active regions. In order to obtain a large amount of observational data to train the forecasting model and test its performance, a data set is created from line-of-sight magnetogarms of active regions observed by SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI from 1996 April to 2015 October and corresponding soft X-ray solar flares observed by GOES. The testing results of the forecasting model indicate that (1) the forecasting patterns can be automatically reached with the MDI data and they can also be applied to the HMI data; furthermore, these forecasting patterns are robust to the noise in the observational data; (2) the performance of the deep learning forecasting model is not sensitive to the given forecasting periods (6, 12, 24, or 48 hr); (3) the performance of the proposed forecasting model is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art flare forecasting models, even if the duration of the total magnetograms continuously spans 19.5 years. Case analyses demonstrate that the deep learning based solar flare forecasting model pays attention to areas with the magnetic polarity-inversion line or the strong magnetic field in magnetograms of active regions.

Characterizing a Model of Coronal Heating and Solar Wind Acceleration Based on Wave Turbulence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J.; Velli, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the nature of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration is a key goal in solar and heliospheric research. While there have been many theoretical advances in both topics, including suggestions that they may be intimately related, the inherent scale coupling and complexity of these phenomena limits our ability to construct models that test them on a fundamental level for realistic solar conditions. At the same time, there is an ever increasing impetus to improve our spaceweather models, and incorporating treatments for these processes that capture their basic features while remaining tractable is an important goal. With this in mind, I will give an overview of our exploration of a wave-turbulence driven (WTD) model for coronal heating and solar wind acceleration based on low-frequency Alfvénic turbulence. Here we attempt to bridge the gap between theory and practical modeling by exploring this model in 1D HD and multi-dimensional MHD contexts. The key questions that we explore are: What properties must the model possess to be a viable model for coronal heating? What is the influence of the magnetic field topology (open, closed, rapidly expanding)? And can we simultaneously capture coronal heating and solar wind acceleration with such a quasi-steady formulation? Our initial results suggest that a WTD based formulation performs adequately for a variety of solar and heliospheric conditions, while significantly reducing the number of free parameters when compared to empirical heating and solar wind models. The challenges, applications, and future prospects of this type of approach will also be discussed.

Numerical modeling of solar irradiance on earth's surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, E.; Gutierez, L.; Da Silva, L.; Miranda, E.

2016-05-01

Modeling studies and estimation of solar radiation in base area, touch from the problems of estimating equation of time, distance equation solar space, solar declination, calculation of surface irradiance, considering that there are a lot of studies you reported the inability of these theoretical equations to be accurate estimates of radiation, many authors have proceeded to make corrections through calibrations with Pyranometers field (solarimeters) or the use of satellites, this being very poor technique last because there a differentiation between radiation and radiant kinetic effects. Because of the above and considering that there is a weather station properly calibrated ground in the Susques Salar in the Jujuy Province, Republic of Argentina, proceeded to make the following modeling of the variable in question, it proceeded to perform the following process: 1. Theoretical Modeling, 2. graphic study of the theoretical and actual data, 3. Adjust primary calibration data through data segmentation on an hourly basis, through horizontal and adding asymptotic constant, 4. Analysis of scatter plot and contrast series. Based on the above steps, the modeling data obtained: Step One: Theoretical data were generated, Step Two: The theoretical data moved 5 hours, Step Three: an asymptote of all negative emissivity values applied, Solve Excel algorithm was applied to least squares minimization between actual and modeled values, obtaining new values of asymptotes with the corresponding theoretical reformulation of data. Add a constant value by month, over time range set (4:00 pm to 6:00 pm). Step Four: The modeling equation coefficients had monthly correlation between actual and theoretical data ranging from 0.7 to 0.9.

The Development of a New Model of Solar EUV Irradiance Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, Harry; Wagner, William J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The goal of this research project is the development of a new model of solar EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) irradiance variability. The model is based on combining differential emission measure distributions derived from spatially and spectrally resolved observations of active regions, coronal holes, and the quiet Sun with full-disk solar images. An initial version of this model was developed with earlier funding from NASA. The new version of the model developed with this research grant will incorporate observations from SoHO as well as updated compilations of atomic data. These improvements will make the model calculations much more accurate.

Three-Fluid Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Wind in the Outer Heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usmanov, Arcadi V.; Goldstein, Melvyn L.; Matthaeus, William H.

2011-01-01

We have developed a three-fluid, fully three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model of the solar wind plasma in the outer heliosphere as a co-moving system of solar wind protons, electrons, and interstellar pickup protons, with separate energy equations for each species. Our approach takes into account the effects of electron heat conduction and dissipation of Alfvenic turbulence on the spatial evolution of the solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic fields. The turbulence transport model is based on the Reynolds decomposition of physical variables into mean and fluctuating components and uses the turbulent phenomenologies that describe the conversion of fluctuation energy into heat due to a turbulent cascade. We solve the coupled set of the three-fluid equations for the mean-field solar wind and the turbulence equations for the turbulence energy, cross helicity, and correlation length. The equations are written in the rotating frame of reference and include heating by turbulent dissipation, energy transfer from interstellar pickup protons to solar wind protons, and solar wind deceleration due to the interaction with the interstellar hydrogen. The numerical solution is constructed by the time relaxation method in the region from 0.3 to 100 AU. Initial results from the novel model are presented.

Absorption of Solar Radiation by Clouds: Observations Versus Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M. H.; Minnis, P.; Corsetti, L.; Dutton, E. G.; Forgan, B. W.; Garber, D. P.; Gates, W. L.; Hack, J. J.; Harrison, E. F.;

MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION-DRIVEN KINEMATIC MEAN FIELD MODEL OF THE SOLAR CYCLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simard, Corinne; Charbonneau, Paul; Bouchat, Amelie, E-mail: corinne@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: paulchar@astro.umontreal.ca, E-mail: amelie.bouchat@mail.mcgill.ca

We construct a series of kinematic axisymmetric mean-field dynamo models operating in the {alpha}{Omega}, {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} and {alpha}{sup 2} regimes, all using the full {alpha}-tensor extracted from a global magnetohydrodynamical simulation of solar convection producing large-scale magnetic fields undergoing solar-like cyclic polarity reversals. We also include an internal differential rotation profile produced in a purely hydrodynamical parent simulation of solar convection, and a simple meridional flow profile described by a single cell per meridional quadrant. An {alpha}{sup 2}{Omega} mean-field model, presumably closest to the mode of dynamo action characterizing the MHD simulation, produces a spatiotemporal evolution of magnetic fields thatmore » share some striking similarities with the zonally-averaged toroidal component extracted from the simulation. Comparison with {alpha}{sup 2} and {alpha}{Omega} mean-field models operating in the same parameter regimes indicates that much of the complexity observed in the spatiotemporal evolution of the large-scale magnetic field in the simulation can be traced to the turbulent electromotive force. Oscillating {alpha}{sup 2} solutions are readily produced, and show some similarities with the observed solar cycle, including a deep-seated toroidal component concentrated at low latitudes and migrating equatorward in the course of the solar cycle. Various numerical experiments performed using the mean-field models reveal that turbulent pumping plays an important role in setting the global characteristics of the magnetic cycles.« less

CORONAL JETS SIMULATED WITH THE GLOBAL ALFVÉN WAVE SOLAR MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szente, J.; Toth, G.; Manchester IV, W. B.

This paper describes a numerical modeling study of coronal jets to understand their effects on the global corona and their contribution to the solar wind. We implement jets into a well-established three-dimensional, two-temperature magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar corona model employing Alfvén-wave dissipation to produce a realistic solar-wind background. The jets are produced by positioning a compact magnetic dipole under the solar surface and rotating the boundary plasma around the dipole's magnetic axis. The moving plasma drags the magnetic field lines along with it, ultimately leading to a reconnection-driven jet similar to that described by Pariat et al. We compare line-of-sight syntheticmore » images to multiple jet observations at EUV and X-ray bands, and find very close matches in terms of physical structure, dynamics, and emission. Key contributors to this agreement are the greatly enhanced plasma density and temperature in our jets compared to previous models. These enhancements arise from the comprehensive thermodynamic model that we use and, also, our inclusion of a dense chromosphere at the base of our jet-generating regions. We further find that the large-scale corona is affected significantly by the outwardly propagating torsional Alfvén waves generated by our polar jet, across 40° in latitude and out to 24 R {sub ⊙}. We estimate that polar jets contribute only a few percent to the steady-state solar-wind energy outflow.« less

Gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cell modeling studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinbockel, J. H.

1980-01-01

Various models were constructed which will allow for the variation of system components. Computer studies were then performed using the models constructed in order to study the effects of various system changes. In particular, GaAs and Si flat plate solar power arrays were studied and compared. Series and shunt resistance models were constructed. Models for the chemical kinetics of the annealing process were prepared. For all models constructed, various parametric studies were performed.

Total solar eclipse effects on VLF signals: Observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clilverd, Mark A.; Rodger, Craig J.; Thomson, Neil R.; Lichtenberger, János; Steinbach, Péter; Cannon, Paul; Angling, Matthew J.

During the total solar eclipse observed in Europe on August 11, 1999, measurements were made of the amplitude and phase of four VLF transmitters in the frequency range 16-24 kHz. Five receiver sites were set up, and significant variations in phase and amplitude are reported for 17 paths, more than any previously during an eclipse. Distances from transmitter to receiver ranged from 90 to 14,510 km, although the majority were <2000 km. Typically, positive amplitude changes were observed throughout the whole eclipse period on path lengths <2000 km, while negative amplitude changes were observed on paths >10,000 km. Negative phase changes were observed on most paths, independent of path length. Although there was significant variation from path to path, the typical changes observed were ~3 dB and ~50°. The changes observed were modeled using the Long Wave Propagation Capability waveguide code. Maximum eclipse effects occurred when the Wait inverse scale height parameter β was 0.5 km-1 and the effective ionospheric height parameter H' was 79 km, compared with β=0.43km-1 and H'=71km for normal daytime conditions. The resulting changes in modeled amplitude and phase show good agreement with the majority of the observations. The modeling undertaken provides an interpretation of why previous estimates of height change during eclipses have shown such a range of values. A D region gas-chemistry model was compared with electron concentration estimates inferred from the observations made during the solar eclipse. Quiet-day H' and β parameters were used to define the initial ionospheric profile. The gas-chemistry model was then driven only by eclipse-related solar radiation levels. The calculated electron concentration values at 77 km altitude throughout the period of the solar eclipse show good agreement with the values determined from observations at all times, which suggests that a linear variation in electron production rate with solar ionizing radiation is reasonable

Terrestrial solar spectral modeling. [SOLTRAN, BRITE, and FLASH codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bird, R.E.

The utility of accurate computer codes for calculating the solar spectral irradiance under various atmospheric conditions was recognized. New absorption and extraterrestrial spectral data are introduced. Progress is made in radiative transfer modeling outside of the solar community, especially for space and military applications. Three rigorous radiative transfer codes SOLTRAN, BRITE, and FLASH are employed. The SOLTRAN and BRITE codes are described and results from their use are presented.

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

2016-01-01

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Validation for global solar wind prediction using Ulysses comparison: Multiple coronal and heliospheric models installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

2016-08-01

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models' capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs. The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

A new simple dynamo model for solar activity cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokoi, Nobumitsu; Schmitt, Dieter

2015-04-01

The solar magnetic activity cycle has been investigated in an elaborated manner with several types of dynamo models [1]. In most of the current mean-field approaches, the inhomogeneity of the large-scale flow is treated as an essential ingredient in the mean magnetic field equation whereas it is completely neglected in the turbulence equation. In this work, a new simple model for the solar activity cycle is proposed. The present model differs from the previous ones mainly in two points. First, in addition to the helicity coefficient α, we consider a term related to the cross helicity, which represents the effect of the inhomogeneous mean flow, in the turbulent electromotive force [2, 3]. Second, this transport coefficient (γ) is not treated as an adjustable parameter, but the evolution equation for γ is simultaneously solved. The basic scenario for the solar activity cycle in this approach is as follows: The toroidal field is induced by the toroidal rotation in mediation by the turbulent cross helicity. Then due to the α or helicity effect, the poloidal field is generated from the toroidal field. The poloidal field induced by the α effect produces a turbulent cross helicity whose sign is opposite to the original one (negative cross-helicity production). The cross helicity with this opposite sign induces a reversed toroidal field. Results of the eigenvalue analysis of the model equations are shown, which confirm the above scenario. References [1] Charbonneau, Living Rev. Solar Phys. 7, 3 (2010). [2] Yoshizawa, A. Phys. Fluids B 2, 1589 (1990). [3] Yokoi, N. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 107, 114 (2013).

Solar Prominence Modelling and Plasma Diagnostics at ALMA Wavelengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodger, Andrew; Labrosse, Nicolas

2017-09-01

Our aim is to test potential solar prominence plasma diagnostics as obtained with the new solar capability of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). We investigate the thermal and plasma diagnostic potential of ALMA for solar prominences through the computation of brightness temperatures at ALMA wavelengths. The brightness temperature, for a chosen line of sight, is calculated using the densities of electrons, hydrogen, and helium obtained from a radiative transfer code under non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) conditions, as well as the input internal parameters of the prominence model in consideration. Two distinct sets of prominence models were used: isothermal-isobaric fine-structure threads, and large-scale structures with radially increasing temperature distributions representing the prominence-to-corona transition region. We compute brightness temperatures over the range of wavelengths in which ALMA is capable of observing (0.32 - 9.6 mm), however, we particularly focus on the bands available to solar observers in ALMA cycles 4 and 5, namely 2.6 - 3.6 mm (Band 3) and 1.1 - 1.4 mm (Band 6). We show how the computed brightness temperatures and optical thicknesses in our models vary with the plasma parameters (temperature and pressure) and the wavelength of observation. We then study how ALMA observables such as the ratio of brightness temperatures at two frequencies can be used to estimate the optical thickness and the emission measure for isothermal and non-isothermal prominences. From this study we conclude that for both sets of models, ALMA presents a strong thermal diagnostic capability, provided that the interpretation of observations is supported by the use of non-LTE simulation results.

UNDERSTANDING SOLAR TORSIONAL OSCILLATIONS FROM GLOBAL DYNAMO MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guerrero, G.; Smolarkiewicz, P. K.; Pino, E. M. de Gouveia Dal

2016-09-01

The phenomenon of solar “torsional oscillations” (TO) represents migratory zonal flows associated with the solar cycle. These flows are observed on the solar surface and, according to helioseismology, extend through the convection zone. We study the origin of the TO using results from a global MHD simulation of the solar interior that reproduces several of the observed characteristics of the mean-flows and magnetic fields. Our results indicate that the magnetic tension (MT) in the tachocline region is a key factor for the periodic changes in the angular momentum transport that causes the TO. The torque induced by the MT atmore » the base of the convection zone is positive at the poles and negative at the equator. A rising MT torque at higher latitudes causes the poles to speed up, whereas a declining negative MT torque at the lower latitudes causes the equator to slow-down. These changes in the zonal flows propagate through the convection zone up to the surface. Additionally, our results suggest that it is the magnetic field at the tachocline that modulates the amplitude of the surface meridional flow rather than the opposite as assumed by flux-transport dynamo models of the solar cycle.« less

Model studies of the solar limb shape variation with wavelenght within the PICARD project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, Stella M. L.; Thuillier, Gerard; Claudel, Jennyfer; Haberreiter, Margit; Mein, Nicole; Schmutz, Werner; Shapiro, Alexander; Sofia, Sabatino; Short, Christopher I.

Solar images in the visible wavelength range show that the disk centre is brighter than the limb region. This phenomenon, which is both known as "centre to limb variation (CLV)", or "limb darkening function", is know to depend on wavelength. Since the CLV is determined by the density and temperature stratification, as well as the chemical composition of the so-lar photosphere, its measurement is important to validate theoretical assumption made when building numerical models of the solar atmosphere. The definition of the solar diameter is nor-mally adopted as the separation between two inflection points at opposite ends of a line passing through the center of the solar disk. Therefore, in order to understand long term variability on the solar diameter, it is important to understand what drives the dependence of the position of the inflection point on wavelength. In this paper we use different available solar atmosphere models to study this dependence. The results presented here refer to quiet Sun conditions and encompass the visible and near infra-red spectral regions, which are the regions of interest for the PICARD Satellite Mission. In a first step we utilize the solar atmosphere parameters with a radiative transfer code. This allows for the study of the impact of different factors such as opacities, electron density and temperature from different models on the results. Then, we compare results obtained using each solar atmosphere model. Our results are compared with existent ground based measurements performed by the Pic du Midi telescope, the balloon board measurements with the Solar Disk Sextant experiment, and with the measurements by the Michelson Doppler Imager on board SoHO satellite. The model simulations show that the position of the inflection point is sensitive to the different parameters and model assumptions. Furthermore, our study shows, for the first time, that the position of the inflection point changes dramatically with and outside of

Self consistent MHD modeling of the solar wind from coronal holes with distinct geometries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, G. A.; Bravo, S.

1995-01-01

Utilizing an iterative scheme, a self-consistent axisymmetric MHD model for the solar wind has been developed. We use this model to evaluate the properties of the solar wind issuing from the open polar coronal hole regions of the Sun, during solar minimum. We explore the variation of solar wind parameters across the extent of the hole and we investigate how these variations are affected by the geometry of the hole and the strength of the field at the coronal base.

Analysis and verification of a prediction model of solar energetic proton events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Zhong, Q.

2017-12-01

The solar energetic particle event can cause severe radiation damages near Earth. The alerts and summary products of the solar energetic proton events were provided by the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) according to the flux of the greater than 10 MeV protons taken by GOES satellite in geosynchronous orbit. The start of a solar energetic proton event is defined as the time when the flux of the greater than 10 MeV protons equals or exceeds 10 proton flux units (pfu). In this study, a model was developed to predict the solar energetic proton events, provide the warning for the solar energetic proton events at least minutes in advance, based on both the soft X-ray flux and integral proton flux taken by GOES. The quality of the forecast model was measured against verifications of accuracy, reliability, discrimination capability, and forecast skills. The peak flux and rise time of the solar energetic proton events in the six channels, >1MeV, >5 MeV, >10 MeV, >30 MeV, >50 MeV, >100 MeV, were also simulated and analyzed.

Solar g-modes? Comparison of detected asymptotic g-mode frequencies with solar model predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Suzannah Rebecca; Guzik, Joyce Ann; Mussack, Katie; Bradley, Paul A.

2018-06-01

After many years of searching for solar gravity modes, Fossat et al. (2017) reported detection of the nearly equally spaced high-order g-modes periods using a 15-year time series of GOLF data from the SOHO spacecraft. Here we report progress towards and challenges associated with calculating and comparing g-mode period predictions for several previously published standard solar models using various abundance mixtures and opacities, as well as the predictions for some non-standard models incorporating early mass loss, and compare with the periods reported by Fossat et al (2017). Additionally, we have a side-by-side comparison of results of different stellar pulsation codes for calculating g-mode predictions. These comparisons will allow for testing of nonstandard physics input that affect the core, including an early more massive Sun and dynamic electron screening.

Object-oriented simulation model of a parabolic trough solar collector: Static and dynamic validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ubieta, Eduardo; Hoyo, Itzal del; Valenzuela, Loreto; Lopez-Martín, Rafael; Peña, Víctor de la; López, Susana

2017-06-01

A simulation model of a parabolic-trough solar collector developed in Modelica® language is calibrated and validated. The calibration is performed in order to approximate the behavior of the solar collector model to a real one due to the uncertainty in some of the system parameters, i.e. measured data is used during the calibration process. Afterwards, the validation of this calibrated model is done. During the validation, the results obtained from the model are compared to the ones obtained during real operation in a collector from the Plataforma Solar de Almeria (PSA).

Short-term solar irradiance forecasting via satellite/model coupling

DOE PAGES

Miller, Steven D.; Rogers, Matthew A.; Haynes, John M.; ...

2017-12-01

The short-term (0-3 h) prediction of solar insolation for renewable energy production is a problem well-suited to satellite-based techniques. The spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution of instrumentation hosted on the geostationary platform allows these satellites to describe the current cloud spatial distribution and optical properties. These properties relate directly to the transient properties of the downwelling solar irradiance at the surface, which come in the form of 'ramps' that pose a central challenge to energy load balancing in a spatially distributed network of solar farms. The short-term evolution of the cloud field may be approximated to first order simplymore » as translational, but care must be taken in how the advection is handled and where the impacts are assigned. In this research, we describe how geostationary satellite observations are used with operational cloud masking and retrieval algorithms, wind field data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), and radiative transfer calculations to produce short-term forecasts of solar insolation for applications in solar power generation. The scheme utilizes retrieved cloud properties to group pixels into contiguous cloud objects whose future positions are predicted using four-dimensional (space + time) model wind fields, selecting steering levels corresponding to the cloud height properties of each cloud group. The shadows associated with these clouds are adjusted for sensor viewing parallax displacement and combined with solar geometry and terrain height to determine the actual location of cloud shadows. For mid/high-level clouds at mid-latitudes and high solar zenith angles, the combined displacements from these geometric considerations are non-negligible. The cloud information is used to initialize a radiative transfer model that computes the direct and diffuse-sky solar insolation at both shadow locations and intervening clear-sky regions. Here, we describe the formulation of

Short-term solar irradiance forecasting via satellite/model coupling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Steven D.; Rogers, Matthew A.; Haynes, John M.

The short-term (0-3 h) prediction of solar insolation for renewable energy production is a problem well-suited to satellite-based techniques. The spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution of instrumentation hosted on the geostationary platform allows these satellites to describe the current cloud spatial distribution and optical properties. These properties relate directly to the transient properties of the downwelling solar irradiance at the surface, which come in the form of 'ramps' that pose a central challenge to energy load balancing in a spatially distributed network of solar farms. The short-term evolution of the cloud field may be approximated to first order simplymore » as translational, but care must be taken in how the advection is handled and where the impacts are assigned. In this research, we describe how geostationary satellite observations are used with operational cloud masking and retrieval algorithms, wind field data from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), and radiative transfer calculations to produce short-term forecasts of solar insolation for applications in solar power generation. The scheme utilizes retrieved cloud properties to group pixels into contiguous cloud objects whose future positions are predicted using four-dimensional (space + time) model wind fields, selecting steering levels corresponding to the cloud height properties of each cloud group. The shadows associated with these clouds are adjusted for sensor viewing parallax displacement and combined with solar geometry and terrain height to determine the actual location of cloud shadows. For mid/high-level clouds at mid-latitudes and high solar zenith angles, the combined displacements from these geometric considerations are non-negligible. The cloud information is used to initialize a radiative transfer model that computes the direct and diffuse-sky solar insolation at both shadow locations and intervening clear-sky regions. Here, we describe the formulation of

Helioseismic Constraints on New Solar Models from the MoSEC Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, J. R.

1998-01-01

Evolutionary solar models are computed using a new stellar evolution code, MOSEC (Modular Stellar Evolution Code). This code has been designed with carefully controlled truncation errors in order to achieve a precision which reflects the increasingly accurate determination of solar interior structure by helioseismology. A series of models is constructed to investigate the effects of the choice of equation of state (OPAL or MHD-E, the latter being a version of the MHD equation of state recalculated by the author), the inclusion of helium and heavy-element settling and diffusion, and the inclusion of a simple model of mixing associated with the solar tachocline. The neutrino flux predictions are discussed, while the sound speed of the computed models is compared to that of the sun via the latest inversion of SOI-NMI p-mode frequency data. The comparison between models calculated with the OPAL and MHD-E equations of state is particularly interesting because the MHD-E equation of state includes relativistic effects for the electrons, whereas neither MHD nor OPAL do. This has a significant effect on the sound speed of the computed model, worsening the agreement with the solar sound speed. Using the OPAL equation of state and including the settling and diffusion of helium and heavy elements produces agreement in sound speed with the helioseismic results to within about +.-0.2%; the inclusion of mixing slightly improves the agreement.

Virtual Solar System Project: Building Understanding through Model Building.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barab, Sasha A.; Hay, Kenneth E.; Barnett, Michael; Keating, Thomas

2000-01-01

Describes an introductory astronomy course for undergraduate students in which students use three-dimensional (3-D) modeling tools to model the solar system and develop rich understandings of astronomical phenomena. Indicates that 3-D modeling can be used effectively in regular undergraduate university courses as a tool to develop understandings…

The faint young Sun paradox: an observational test of an alternative solar model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaidos, E. J.; Gudel, M.; Blake, G. A.

2000-01-01

We report the results of deep observations at radio (3.6 cm) wavelengths of the nearby solar-type star pi 01 Ursa Majoris with the Very Large Array (VLA) intended to test an alternative theory of solar luminosity evolution. The standard model predicts a solar luminosity only 75% of the present value and surface temperatures below freezing on Earth and Mars at 4 Ga, seemingly in conflict with geologic evidence for liquid water on these planets. An alternative model invokes a compensatory mass loss through a declining solar wind that results in a more consistent early luminosity. The free-free emission from an enhanced wind around nearby young Sun-like stars should be detectable at microwave frequencies. Our observations of pi 01 UMa, a 300 million year-old solar-mass star, place an upper limit on the mass loss rate of 4-5 x 10(-11) M(solar) yr-1. Total mass loss from such a star over 4 Gyr would be less than 6%. If this star is indeed an analog of the early Sun, it casts doubt on the alternative model as a solution to the faint young Sun paradox, particularly for Mars.

Tomographic Validation of the AWSoM Model of the Inner Corona During Solar Minima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manchester, W.; Vásquez, A. M.; Lloveras, D. G.; Mac Cormack, C.; Nuevo, F.; Lopez-Fuentes, M.; Frazin, R. A.; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

Continuous improvement of MHD three-dimensional (3D) models of the global solar corona, such as the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), requires testing their ability to reproduce observational constraints at a global scale. To that end, solar rotational tomography based on EUV image time-series can be used to reconstruct the 3D distribution of the electron density and temperature in the inner solar corona (r < 1.25 Rsun). The tomographic results, combined with a global coronal magnetic model, can further provide constraints on the energy input flux required at the coronal base to maintain stable structures. In this work, tomographic reconstructions are used to validate steady-state 3D MHD simulations of the inner corona using the latest version of the AWSoM model. We perform the study for selected rotations representative of solar minimum conditions, when the global structure of the corona is more axisymmetric. We analyse in particular the ability of the MHD simulation to match the tomographic results across the boundary region between the equatorial streamer belt and the surrounding coronal holes. The region is of particular interest as the plasma flow from that zone is thought to be related to the origin of the slow component of the solar wind.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

2016-01-01

Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

Observations & modeling of solar-wind/magnetospheric interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoilijoki, Sanni; Von Alfthan, Sebastian; Pfau-Kempf, Yann; Palmroth, Minna; Ganse, Urs

2016-07-01

The majority of the global magnetospheric dynamics is driven by magnetic reconnection, indicating the need to understand and predict reconnection processes and their global consequences. So far, global magnetospheric dynamics has been simulated using mainly magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, which are approximate but fast enough to be executed in real time or near-real time. Due to their fast computation times, MHD models are currently the only possible frameworks for space weather predictions. However, in MHD models reconnection is not treated kinetically. In this presentation we will compare the results from global kinetic (hybrid-Vlasov) and global MHD simulations. Both simulations are compared with in-situ measurements. We will show that the kinetic processes at the bow shock, in the magnetosheath and at the magnetopause affect global dynamics even during steady solar wind conditions. Foreshock processes cause an asymmetry in the magnetosheath plasma, indicating that the plasma entering the magnetosphere is not symmetrical on different sides of the magnetosphere. Behind the bow shock in the magnetosheath kinetic wave modes appear. Some of these waves propagate to the magnetopause and have an effect on the magnetopause reconnection. Therefore we find that kinetic phenomena have a significant role in the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere. While kinetic models cannot be executed in real time currently, they could be used to extract heuristics to be added in the faster MHD models.

A model to determine financial indicators for organic solar cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Powell, Colin; Bender, Timothy; Lawryshyn, Yuri

2009-11-15

Organic solar cells are an emerging photovoltaic technology that is inexpensive and easy to manufacture, despite low efficiency and stability. A model, named TEEOS (Technical and Economic Evaluator for Organic Solar), is presented that evaluates organic solar cells for various solar energy applications in different geographic locations, in terms of two financial indicators, payback period and net present value (NPV). TEEOS uses SMARTS2 software to estimate broadband (280-4000 nm) spectral irradiance data and with the use of a cloud modification factor, predicts hourly irradiation in the absence of actual broadband irradiance data, which is scarce for most urban locations. Bymore » using the avoided cost of electricity, annual savings are calculated which produce the financial indicators. It is hoped that these financial indicators can help guide certain technical decisions regarding the direction of research for organic solar cells, for example, increasing efficiency or increasing the absorptive wavelength range. A sample calculation using solar hats is shown to be uneconomical, but a good example of large-scale organic PV production. (author)« less

Highly Physical Solar Radiation Pressure Modeling During Penumbra Transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, Robert V.

Solar radiation pressure (SRP) is one of the major non-gravitational forces acting on spacecraft. Acceleration by radiation pressure depends on the radiation flux; on spacecraft shape, attitude, and mass; and on the optical properties of the spacecraft surfaces. Precise modeling of SRP is needed for dynamic satellite orbit determination, space mission design and control, and processing of data from space-based science instruments. During Earth penumbra transitions, sunlight is passing through Earth's lower atmosphere and, in the process, its path, intensity, spectral composition, and shape are significantly affected. This dissertation presents a new method for highly physical SRP modeling in Earth's penumbra called Solar radiation pressure with Oblateness and Lower Atmospheric Absorption, Refraction, and Scattering (SOLAARS). The fundamental geometry and approach mirrors past work, where the solar radiation field is modeled using a number of light rays, rather than treating the Sun as a single point source. This dissertation aims to clarify this approach, simplify its implementation, and model previously overlooked factors. The complex geometries involved in modeling penumbra solar radiation fields are described in a more intuitive and complete way to simplify implementation. Atmospheric effects due to solar radiation passing through the troposphere and stratosphere are modeled, and the results are tabulated to significantly reduce computational cost. SOLAARS includes new, more efficient and accurate approaches to modeling atmospheric effects which allow us to consider the spatial and temporal variability in lower atmospheric conditions. A new approach to modeling the influence of Earth's polar flattening draws on past work to provide a relatively simple but accurate method for this important effect. Previous penumbra SRP models tend to lie at two extremes of complexity and computational cost, and so the significant improvement in accuracy provided by the complex

Performance of Solar Proxy Options of IRI-Plas Model for Equinox Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sezen, Umut; Gulyaeva, Tamara L.; Arikan, Feza

2018-02-01

International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) is the most acclaimed climatic model of the ionosphere. Since 2009, the range of the IRI model has been extended to the Global Positioning System (GPS) orbital height of 20,000 km in the plasmasphere. The new model, which is called IRI extended to Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas), can input not only the ionosonde foF2 and hmF2 but also the GPS-total electron content (TEC). IRI-Plas has been provided at www.ionolab.org, where online computation of ionospheric parameters is accomplished through a user-friendly interface. The solar proxies that are available in IRI-Plas can be listed as sunspot number (SSN1), SSN2, F10.7, global electron content (GEC), TEC, IG, Mg II, Lyman-α, and GEC_RZ. In this study, ionosonde foF2 data are compared with IRI-Plas foF2 values with the Consultative Committee International Radio (CCIR) and International Union of Radio Science (URSI) model choices for each solar proxy, with or without the GPS-TEC input for the equinox months of October 2011 and March 2015. It has been observed that the best fitting model choices in Root Mean Square (RMS) and Normalized RMS (NRMS) sense are the Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric maps-TEC input with Lyman-α solar proxy option for both months. The input of TEC definitely lowers the difference between the model and ionosonde foF2 values. The IG and Mg II solar proxies produce similar model foF2 values, and they usually are the second and third best fits to the ionosonde foF2 for the midlatitude ionosphere. In high-latitude regions, Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric map-TEC inputs to IRI-Plas with Lyman-α, GEC_RZ, and TEC solar proxies are the best choices. In equatorial region, the best fitting solar proxies are IG, Lyman-α, and Mg II.

Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Anid, Hani Khaled

show a very different response during anisotropic events, leading to variations in aircrew radiation doses that may be significant for dose assessment. To estimate the additional exposure due to solar flares, a model was developed using a Monte-Carlo radiation transport code, MCNPX. The model transports an extrapolated particle spectrum based on satellite measurements through the atmosphere using the MCNPX analysis. This code produces the estimated flux at a specific altitude where radiation dose conversion coefficients are applied to convert the particle flux into effective and ambient dose-equivalent rates. A cut-off rigidity model accounts for the shielding effects of the Earth's magnetic field. Comparisons were made between the model predictions and actual flight measurements taken with various types of instruments used to measure the mixed radiation field during Ground Level Enhancements 60 and 65. An anisotropy analysis that uses neutron monitor responses and the pitch angle distribution of energetic solar particles was used to identify particle anisotropy for a solar event in December 2006. In anticipation of future commercial use, a computer code has been developed to implement the radiation dose assessment model for routine analysis. Keywords: Radiation Dosimetry, Radiation Protection, Space Physics.

STEADY-STATE MODEL OF SOLAR WIND ELECTRONS REVISITED

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Peter H.; Kim, Sunjung; Choe, G. S., E-mail: yoonp@umd.edu

2015-10-20

In a recent paper, Kim et al. put forth a steady-state model for the solar wind electrons. The model assumed local equilibrium between the halo electrons, characterized by an intermediate energy range, and the whistler-range fluctuations. The basic wave–particle interaction is assumed to be the cyclotron resonance. Similarly, it was assumed that a dynamical steady state is established between the highly energetic superhalo electrons and high-frequency Langmuir fluctuations. Comparisons with the measured solar wind electron velocity distribution function (VDF) during quiet times were also made, and reasonable agreements were obtained. In such a model, however, only the steady-state solution for themore » Fokker–Planck type of electron particle kinetic equation was considered. The present paper complements the previous analysis by considering both the steady-state particle and wave kinetic equations. It is shown that the model halo and superhalo electron VDFs, as well as the assumed wave intensity spectra for the whistler and Langmuir fluctuations, approximately satisfy the quasi-linear wave kinetic equations in an approximate sense, thus further validating the local equilibrium model constructed in the paper by Kim et al.« less

An empirical model for estimating solar radiation in the Algerian Sahara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benatiallah, Djelloul; Benatiallah, Ali; Bouchouicha, Kada; Hamouda, Messaoud; Nasri, Bahous

2018-05-01

The present work aims to determine the empirical model R.sun that will allow us to evaluate the solar radiation flues on a horizontal plane and in clear-sky on the located Adrar city (27°18 N and 0°11 W) of Algeria and compare with the results measured at the localized site. The expected results of this comparison are of importance for the investment study of solar systems (solar power plants for electricity production, CSP) and also for the design and performance analysis of any system using the solar energy. Statistical indicators used to evaluate the accuracy of the model where the mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination. The results show that for global radiation, the daily correlation coefficient is 0.9984. The mean absolute percentage error is 9.44 %. The daily mean bias error is -7.94 %. The daily root mean square error is 12.31 %.

Modelling Solar Energetic Particle Events Using the iPATH Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Hu, J.; Ao, X.; Zank, G. P.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.

2016-12-01

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) is the No. 1 space weather hazard. Understanding how particles are energized and propagated in these events is of practical concerns to the manned space missions. In particular, both the radial evolution and the longitudinal extent of a gradual solarenergetic particle (SEP) event are central topics for space weather forecasting. In this talk, I discuss the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model. The iPATH model consists of three parts: (1) an updated ZEUS3D V3.5 MHD module that models thebackground solar wind and the initiation of a CME in a 2D domain; (2) an updated shock acceleration module where we investigate particle acceleration at different longitudinal locations along the surface of a CME-driven shock. Accelerated particle spectrum are obtained at the shock under the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism. Shock parameters and particle distributions are recorded and used as inputs for the later part. (3) an updated transport module where we follow the transport of accelerated particles from the shock to any destinations (Earth and/or Mars, e.g.) using a Monte-Carlo method. Both pitch angle scattering due to MHD turbulence and perpendicular diffusion across magnetic field are included. Our iPATH model is therefore intrinsically 2D in nature. The model is capable of generating time intensity profiles and instantaneous particle spectra atvarious locations and can greatly improve our current space weather forecasting capability.

Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lisano, Michael; Evans, James; Ellis, Jordan; Schimmels, John; Roberts, Timothy; Rios-Reyes, Leonel; Scheeres, Daniel; Bladt, Jeff; Lawrence, Dale; Piggott, Scott

2007-01-01

The Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation Software (S5) toolkit provides solar-sail designers with an integrated environment for designing optimal solar-sail trajectories, and then studying the attitude dynamics/control, navigation, and trajectory control/correction of sails during realistic mission simulations. Unique features include a high-fidelity solar radiation pressure model suitable for arbitrarily-shaped solar sails, a solar-sail trajectory optimizer, capability to develop solar-sail navigation filter simulations, solar-sail attitude control models, and solar-sail high-fidelity force models.

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has

A semi-empirical model for estimating surface solar radiation from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjai, Serm; Pattarapanitchai, Somjet; Wattan, Rungrat; Masiri, Itsara; Buntoung, Sumaman; Promsen, Worrapass; Tohsing, Korntip

2013-05-01

This paper presents a semi-empirical model for estimating surface solar radiation from satellite data for a tropical environment. The model expresses solar irradiance as a semi-empirical function of cloud index, aerosol optical depth, precipitable water, total column ozone and air mass. The cloud index data were derived from MTSAT-1R satellite, whereas the aerosol optical depth data were obtained from MODIS/Terra satellite. The total column ozone data were derived from OMI/AURA satellite and the precipitable water data were obtained from NCEP/NCAR. A five year period (2006-2010) of these data and global solar irradiance measured at four sites in Thailand namely, Chiang Mai (18.78 °N, 98.98 °E), Nakhon Pathom (13.82 °N, 100.04 °E), Ubon Ratchathani (15.25 °N, 104.87 °E) and Songkhla (7.20 °N, 100.60 °E), were used to derive the coefficients of the model. To evaluate its performance, the model was used to calculate solar radiation at four sites in Thailand namely, Phisanulok (16.93 °N, 100.24 °E), Kanchanaburi (14.02 °N, 99.54 °E), Nongkhai (17.87 °N, 102.72 °E) and Surat Thani (9.13 °N, 99.15 °E) and the results were compared with solar radiation measured at these sites. It was found that the root mean square difference (RMSD) between measured and calculated values of hourly solar radiation was in the range of 25.5-29.4%. The RMSD is reduced to 10.9-17.0% for the case of monthly average hourly radiation. The proposed model has the advantage in terms of the simplicity for applications and reasonable accuracy of the results.

Modeling and optimization of a hybrid solar combined cycle (HYCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eter, Ahmad Adel

2011-12-01

The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of integrating concentrated solar power (CSP) technology with the conventional combined cycle technology for electric generation in Saudi Arabia. The generated electricity can be used locally to meet the annual increasing demand. Specifically, it can be utilized to meet the demand during the hours 10 am-3 pm and prevent blackout hours, of some industrial sectors. The proposed CSP design gives flexibility in the operation system. Since, it works as a conventional combined cycle during night time and it switches to work as a hybrid solar combined cycle during day time. The first objective of the thesis is to develop a thermo-economical mathematical model that can simulate the performance of a hybrid solar-fossil fuel combined cycle. The second objective is to develop a computer simulation code that can solve the thermo-economical mathematical model using available software such as E.E.S. The developed simulation code is used to analyze the thermo-economic performance of different configurations of integrating the CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle to achieve the optimal integration configuration. This optimal integration configuration has been investigated further to achieve the optimal design of the solar field that gives the optimal solar share. Thermo-economical performance metrics which are available in the literature have been used in the present work to assess the thermo-economic performance of the investigated configurations. The economical and environmental impact of integration CSP with the conventional fossil fuel combined cycle are estimated and discussed. Finally, the optimal integration configuration is found to be solarization steam side in conventional combined cycle with solar multiple 0.38 which needs 29 hectare and LEC of HYCS is 63.17 $/MWh under Dhahran weather conditions.

Implementation of Bessel's method for solar eclipses prediction in the WRF-ARW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montornes, Alex; Codina, Bernat; Zack, John W.; Sola, Yolanda

2016-05-01

Solar eclipses are predictable astronomical events that abruptly reduce the incoming solar radiation into the Earth's atmosphere, which frequently results in non-negligible changes in meteorological fields. The meteorological impacts of these events have been analyzed in many studies since the late 1960s. The recent growth in the solar energy industry has greatly increased the interest in providing more detail in the modeling of solar radiation variations in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for the use in solar resource assessment and forecasting applications. The significant impact of the recent partial and total solar eclipses that occurred in the USA (23 October 2014) and Europe (20 March 2015) on solar power generation have provided additional motivation and interest for including these astronomical events in the current solar parameterizations.Although some studies added solar eclipse episodes within NWP codes in the 1990s and 2000s, they used eclipse parameterizations designed for a particular case study. In contrast to these earlier implementations, this paper documents a new package for the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model that can simulate any partial, total or hybrid solar eclipse for the period 1950 to 2050 and is also extensible to a longer period. The algorithm analytically computes the trajectory of the Moon's shadow and the degree of obscuration of the solar disk at each grid point of the domain based on Bessel's method and the Five Millennium Catalog of Solar Eclipses provided by NASA, with a negligible computational time. Then, the incoming radiation is modified accordingly at each grid point of the domain.This contribution is divided in three parts. First, the implementation of Bessel's method is validated for solar eclipses in the period 1950-2050, by comparing the shadow trajectory with values provided by NASA. Latitude and longitude are determined with a bias lower than 5 x 10-3 degrees (i

Mathematical model of solar radiation based on climatological data from NASA SSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obukhov, S. G.; Plotnikov, I. A.; Masolov, V. G.

2018-05-01

An original model of solar radiation arriving at the arbitrarily oriented surface has been developed. The peculiarity of the model is that it uses numerical values of the atmospheric transparency index and the surface albedo from the NASA SSE database as initial data. The model is developed in the MatLab/Simulink environment to predict the main characteristics of solar radiation for any geographical point in Russia, including those for territories with no regular actinometric observations.

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

Comparative modeling of InP solar cell structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jain, R. K.; Weinberg, I.; Flood, D. J.

1991-01-01

The comparative modeling of p(+)n and n(+)p indium phosphide solar cell structures is studied using a numerical program PC-1D. The optimal design study has predicted that the p(+)n structure offers improved cell efficiencies as compared to n(+)p structure, due to higher open-circuit voltage. The various cell material and process parameters to achieve the maximum cell efficiencies are reported. The effect of some of the cell parameters on InP cell I-V characteristics was studied. The available radiation resistance data on n(+)p and p(+)p InP solar cells are also critically discussed.

A Temperature-Based Model for Estimating Monthly Average Daily Global Solar Radiation in China

PubMed Central

Li, Huashan; Cao, Fei; Wang, Xianlong; Ma, Weibin

2014-01-01

Since air temperature records are readily available around the world, the models based on air temperature for estimating solar radiation have been widely accepted. In this paper, a new model based on Hargreaves and Samani (HS) method for estimating monthly average daily global solar radiation is proposed. With statistical error tests, the performance of the new model is validated by comparing with the HS model and its two modifications (Samani model and Chen model) against the measured data at 65 meteorological stations in China. Results show that the new model is more accurate and robust than the HS, Samani, and Chen models in all climatic regions, especially in the humid regions. Hence, the new model can be recommended for estimating solar radiation in areas where only air temperature data are available in China. PMID:24605046

Adding a solar-radiance function to the Hošek-Wilkie skylight model.

PubMed

Hošek, Lukáš; Wilkie, Alexander

2013-01-01

One prerequisite for realistic renderings of outdoor scenes is the proper capturing of the sky's appearance. Currently, an explicit simulation of light scattering in the atmosphere isn't computationally feasible, and won't be in the foreseeable future. Captured luminance patterns have proven their usefulness in practice but can't meet all user needs. To fill this capability gap, computer graphics technology has employed analytical models of sky-dome luminance patterns for more than two decades. For technical reasons, such models deal with only the sky dome's appearance, though, and exclude the solar disc. The widely used model proposed by Arcot Preetham and colleagues employed a separately derived analytical formula for adding a solar emitter of suitable radiant intensity. Although this yields reasonable results, the formula is derived in a manner that doesn't exactly match the conditions in their sky-dome model. But the more sophisticated a skylight model is and the more subtly it can represent different conditions, the more the solar radiance should exactly match the skylight's conditions. Toward that end, researchers propose a solar-radiance function that exactly matches a recently published high-quality analytical skylight model.

Diagnosing Model Errors in Simulation of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-11-21

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined PV panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results show significant differences between two highly used isotropic transposition models with one substantially underestimating the diffuse plane-of-array (POA) irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study canmore » be used as a guide for future development of physics-based transposition models.« less

An update of Leighton's solar dynamo model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cameron, R. H.; Schüssler, M.

2017-03-01

In 1969, Leighton developed a quasi-1D mathematical model of the solar dynamo, building upon the phenomenological scenario of Babcock published in 1961. Here we present a modification and extension of Leighton's model. Using the axisymmetric component (longitudinal average) of the magnetic field, we consider the radial field component at the solar surface and the radially integrated toroidal magnetic flux in the convection zone, both as functions of latitude. No assumptions are made with regard to the radial location of the toroidal flux. The model includes the effects of (I) turbulent diffusion at the surface and in the convection zone; (II) poleward meridional flow at the surface and an equatorward return flow affecting the toroidal flux; (III) latitudinal differential rotation and the near-surface layer of radial rotational shear; (iv) downward convective pumping of magnetic flux in the shear layer; and (v) flux emergence in the form of tilted bipolar magnetic regions treated as a source term for the radial surface field. While the parameters relevant for the transport of the surface field are taken from observations, the model condenses the unknown properties of magnetic field and flow in the convection zone into a few free parameters (turbulent diffusivity, effective return flow, amplitude of the source term, and a parameter describing the effective radial shear). Comparison with the results of 2D flux transport dynamo codes shows that the model captures the essential features of these simulations. We make use of the computational efficiency of the model to carry out an extended parameter study. We cover an extended domain of the 4D parameter space and identify the parameter ranges that provide solar-like solutions. Dipole parity is always preferred and solutions with periods around 22 yr and a correct phase difference between flux emergence in low latitudes and the strength of the polar fields are found for a return flow speed around 2 m s-1, turbulent

Solar Corona Simulation Model With Positivity-preserving Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X. S.

2015-12-01

Positivity-preserving is one of crucial problems in solar corona simulation. In such numerical simulation of low plasma β region, keeping density and pressure is a first of all matter to obtain physical sound solution. In the present paper, we utilize the maximum-principle-preserving flux limiting technique to develop a class of second order positivity-preserving Godunov finite volume HLL methods for the solar wind plasma MHD equations. Based on the underlying first order building block of positivity preserving Lax-Friedrichs, our schemes, under the constrained transport (CT) and generalized Lagrange multiplier (GLM) framework, can achieve high order accuracy, a discrete divergence-free condition and positivity of the numerical solution simultaneously without extra CFL constraints. Numerical results in four Carrington rotation during the declining, rising, minimum and maximum solar activity phases are provided to demonstrate the performance of modeling small plasma beta with positivity-preserving property of the proposed method.

A Generalized Equatorial Model for the Accelerating Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tasnim, S.; Cairns, Iver H.; Wheatland, M. S.

2018-02-01

A new theoretical model for the solar wind is developed that includes the wind's acceleration, conservation of angular momentum, deviations from corotation, and nonradial velocity and magnetic field components from an inner boundary (corresponding to the onset of the solar wind) to beyond 1 AU. The model uses a solution of the time-steady isothermal equation of motion to describe the acceleration and analytically predicts the Alfvénic critical radius. We fit the model to near-Earth observations of the Wind spacecraft during the solar rotation period of 1-27 August 2010. The resulting data-driven model demonstrates the existence of noncorotating, nonradial flows and fields from the inner boundary (r = rs) outward and predicts the magnetic field B = (Br,Bϕ), velocity v = (vr,vϕ), and density n(r,ϕ,t), which vary with heliocentric distance r, heliolatitude ϕ, and time t in a Sun-centered standard inertial plane. The description applies formally only in the equatorial plane. In a frame corotating with the Sun, the transformed velocity v' and a field B' are not parallel, resulting in an electric field with a component Ez' along the z axis. The resulting E'×B'=E'×B drift lies in the equatorial plane, while the ∇B and curvature drifts are out of the plane. Together these may lead to enhanced scattering/heating of sufficiently energetic particles. The model predicts that deviations δvϕ from corotation at the inner boundary are common, with δvϕ(rs,ϕs,ts) comparable to the transverse velocities due to granulation and supergranulation motions. Abrupt changes in δvϕ(rs,ϕs,ts) are interpreted in terms of converging and diverging flows at the cell boundaries and centers, respectively. Large-scale variations in the predicted angular momentum demonstrate that the solar wind can drive vorticity and turbulence from near the Sun to 1 AU and beyond.

The development of an advanced generic solar dynamic heat receiver thermal model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Y. C.; Roschke, E. J.; Kohout, L.

1988-01-01

An advanced generic solar dynamic heat receiver thermal model under development which can analyze both orbital transient and orbital average conditions is discussed. This model can be used to study advanced receiver concepts, evaluate receiver concepts under development, analyze receiver thermal characteristics under various operational conditions, and evaluate solar dynamic system thermal performances in various orbit conditions. The model and the basic considerations that led to its creation are described, and results based on a set of baseline orbit, configuration, and operational conditions are presented to demonstrate the working of the receiver model.

Solar-stellar Coffee: A Model For Informal Interdisciplinary Professional Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, Travis S.

2007-12-01

Initiated at NCAR more than two years ago, solar-stellar coffee is a weekly informal discussion of recent papers that are relevant to solar and stellar physics. The purpose is to generate awareness of new papers, to discuss their connections to past and current work, and to encourage a broader and more interdisciplinary view of solar physics. The discussion is local, but traffic to the website (http://coffee.solar-stellar.org/) is global -- suggesting that solar and stellar astronomers around the world find value in this intelligent pre-filter for astro-ph and other sources (papers are selected by local participants). In addition to enhancing the preprint posting and reading habits of solar physicists (with the associated boost in citation rates), the weekly discussion also provides an interdisciplinary professional development opportunity for graduate students, postdocs, and early career scientists. The web page is driven by a simple set of scripts (available on request), so this interaction model can easily be replicated at other institutions for topics of local interest. The concept of solar-stellar coffee began with support from an NSF Astronomy & Astrophysics Postdoctoral Fellowship under award AST-0401441. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Generalized Optoelectronic Model of Series-Connected Multijunction Solar Cells

DOE PAGES

Geisz, John F.; Steiner, Myles A.; Garcia, Ivan; ...

2015-10-02

The emission of light from each junction in a series-connected multijunction solar cell, we found, both complicates and elucidates the understanding of its performance under arbitrary conditions. Bringing together many recent advances in this understanding, we present a general 1-D model to describe luminescent coupling that arises from both voltage-driven electroluminescence and voltage-independent photoluminescence in nonideal junctions that include effects such as Sah-Noyce-Shockley (SNS) recombination with n ≠ 2, Auger recombination, shunt resistance, reverse-bias breakdown, series resistance, and significant dark area losses. The individual junction voltages and currents are experimentally determined from measured optical and electrical inputs and outputs ofmore » the device within the context of the model to fit parameters that describe the devices performance under arbitrary input conditions. Furthermore, our techniques to experimentally fit the model are demonstrated for a four-junction inverted metamorphic solar cell, and the predictions of the model are compared with concentrator flash measurements.« less

A joined model for solar dynamo and differential rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitchatinov, L. L.; Nepomnyashchikh, A. A.

2017-05-01

A model for the solar dynamo, consistent in global flow and numerical method employed with the differential rotation model, is developed. The magnetic turbulent diffusivity is expressed in terms of the entropy gradient, which is controlled by the model equations. The magnetic Prandtl number and latitudinal profile of the alpha-effect are specified by fitting the computed period of the activity cycle and the equatorial symmetry of magnetic fields to observations. Then, the instants of polar field reversals and time-latitude diagrams of the fields also come into agreement with observations. The poloidal field has a maximum amplitude of about 10 Gs in the polar regions. The toroidal field of several thousand Gauss concentrates near the base of the convection zone and is transported towards the equator by the meridional flow. The model predicts a value of about 1037 erg for the total magnetic energy of large-scale fields in the solar convection zone.

Modeling the heliolatitudinal gradient of the solar wind parameters with exact MHD solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lima, J. J. G.; Tsinganos, K.

1995-01-01

The heliolatitudinal dependence of observations of the solar wind macroscopic quantities such as the averaged proton speed, density and the mass and momentum flux are modeled. The published observations covering the last two and a half solar cycles, are obtained either via the technique of interplanetary scintillations for the last 2 solar cycles (1970-1990), or, from the plasma experiment aboard the ULYSSES spacecraft for the recent period 1990-1994. Exact, two dimensional solutions of the full set of the steady MHD equations are used which are obtained through a nonlinear separation of the variables in the MHD equations. The three parameters emerging from the solutions are fixed from these observations, as well as from observations of the solar rotation. It is found that near solar maximum the solar wind speed is uniformly low, around the 400 km/s over a wide range of latitudes. On the other hand, during solar minimum and the declining phase of the solar activity cycle, there is a strong heliolatitudinal gradient in proton speed between 400-800 from equator to pole. This modeling also agrees with previous findings that the gradient in wind speed with the latitude is offset by a gradient in density such that the mass and momentum flux vary relatively little.

Empirical model of TEC response to geomagnetic and solar forcing over Balkan Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhtarov, P.; Andonov, B.; Pancheva, D.

2018-01-01

An empirical total electron content (TEC) model response to external forcing over Balkan Peninsula (35°N-50°N; 15°E-30°E) is built by using the Center for Orbit Determination of Europe (CODE) TEC data for full 17 years, January 1999 - December 2015. The external forcing includes geomagnetic activity described by the Kp-index and solar activity described by the solar radio flux F10.7. The model describes the most probable spatial distribution and temporal variability of the externally forced TEC anomalies assuming that they depend mainly on latitude, Kp-index, F10.7 and LT. The anomalies are expressed by the relative deviation of the TEC from its 15-day mean, rTEC, as the mean value is calculated from the 15 preceding days. The approach for building this regional model is similar to that of the global TEC model reported by Mukhtarov et al. (2013a) however it includes two important improvements related to short-term variability of the solar activity and amended geomagnetic forcing by using a "modified" Kp index. The quality assessment of the new constructing model procedure in terms of modeling error calculated for the period of 1999-2015 indicates significant improvement in accordance with the global TEC model (Mukhtarov et al., 2013a). The short-term prediction capabilities of the model based on the error calculations for 2016 are improved as well. In order to demonstrate how the model is able to reproduce the rTEC response to external forcing three geomagnetic storms, accompanied also with short-term solar activity variations, which occur at different seasons and solar activity conditions are presented.

Effects of Mg II and Ca II ionization on ab-initio solar chromosphere models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rammacher, W.; Cuntz, M.

1991-01-01

Acoustically heated solar chromosphere models are computed considering radiation damping by (non-LTE) emission from H(-) and by Mg II and Ca II emission lines. The radiative transfer equations for the Mg II k and Ca II K emission lines are solved using the core-saturation method with complete redistribution. The Mg II k and Ca II K cooling rates are compared with the VAL model C. Several substantial improvements over the work of Ulmschneider et al. (1987) are included. It is found that the rapid temperature rises caused by the ionization of Mg II are not formed in the middle chromosphere, but occur at larger atmospheric heights. These models represent the temperature structure of the 'real' solar chromosphere much better. This result is a major precondition for the study of ab-initio models for solar flux tubes based on MHD wave propagation and also for ab-initio models for the solar transition layer.

Coronal Jets Simulated with the Global Alfvén Wave Solar Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szente, J.; Toth, G.; Manchester, W. B., IV; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; Gombosi, T. I.; DeVore, C. R.; Antiochos, S. K.

2017-01-01

This paper describes a numerical modeling study of coronal jets to understand their effects on the global corona and their contribution to the solar wind. We implement jets into a well-established three-dimensional, two-temperature magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar corona model employing Alfvén-wave dissipation to produce a realistic solar-wind background. The jets are produced by positioning a compact magnetic dipole under the solar surface and rotating the boundary plasma around the dipole's magnetic axis. The moving plasma drags the magnetic field lines along with it, ultimately leading to a reconnection-driven jet similar to that described by Pariat et al. We compare line-of-sight synthetic images to multiple jet observations at EUV and X-ray bands, and find very close matches in terms of physical structure, dynamics, and emission. Key contributors to this agreement are the greatly enhanced plasma density and temperature in our jets compared to previous models. These enhancements arise from the comprehensive thermodynamic model that we use and, also, our inclusion of a dense chromosphere at the base of our jet-generating regions. We further find that the large-scale corona is affected significantly by the outwardly propagating torsional Alfvén waves generated by our polar jet, across 40° in latitude and out to 24 R⊙. We estimate that polar jets contribute only a few percent to the steady-state solar-wind energy outflow.

Comparison of Model and Observations of Middle Atmospheric HOx Response to Solar 27-day Cycles: Quantifying Model Uncertainties due to Photochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Li, K. F.; Shia, R. L.; Yung, Y. L.; Sander, S. P.

2016-12-01

HO2 and OH (known as odd oxygen HOx), play an important role in middle atmospheric chemistry, in particular, O3 destruction through catalytic HOx reaction cycles. Due to their photochemical production and short chemical lifetimes, HOx species response rapidly to solar UV irradiance changes during solar cycles, resulting in variability in the corresponding O3 chemistry. Observational evidences for both OH and HO2 variability due to solar cycles have been reported. However, puzzling discrepancies remain. In particular, the large discrepancy between model and observations of solar 11-year cycle signal in OH and the significantly different model results when adopting different solar spectral irradiance (SSI) [Wang et al., 2013] suggest that both uncertainties in SSI variability and uncertainties in our current understanding of HOx-O3 chemistry could contribute to the discrepancy. Since the short-term SSI variability (e.g. changes during solar 27-day cycles) has little uncertainty, investigating 27-day solar cycle signals in HOx allows us to simplify the complex problem and to focus on the uncertainties in chemistry alone. We use the Caltech-JPL photochemical model to simulate observed HOx variability during 27-day cycles. The comparison between Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations and our model results (using standard chemistry and "adjusted chemistry", respectively) will be discussed. A better understanding of uncertainties in chemistry will eventually help us separate the contribution of chemistry from contributions of SSI uncertainties to the complex discrepancy between model and observations of OH responses to solar 11-year cycles.

SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Norma; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jiggens, Piers; Aran, Angels; Sanahuja, Blai; Truscott, Pete; Lei, Fan; Jacobs, Carla; Poedts, Stefaan; Gabriel, Stephen; Sandberg, Ingmar; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain

2015-07-01

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a serious radiation hazard for spacecraft as well as a severe health risk to humans traveling in space. Indeed, accurate modeling of the SEP environment constitutes a priority requirement for astrophysics and solar system missions and for human exploration in space. The European Space Agency's Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server is a World Wide Web interface to a complete set of cross-calibrated data ranging from 1973 to 2013 as well as new SEP engineering models and tools. Both statistical and physical modeling techniques have been included, in order to cover the environment not only at 1 AU but also in the inner heliosphere ranging from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU using a newly developed physics-based shock-and-particle model to simulate particle flux profiles of gradual SEP events. With SEPEM, SEP peak flux and integrated fluence statistics can be studied, as well as durations of high SEP flux periods. Furthermore, effects tools are also included to allow calculation of single event upset rate and radiation doses for a variety of engineering scenarios.

Hybrid Model of Inhomogeneous Solar Wind Plasma Heating by Alfven Wave Spectrum: Parametric Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ofman, L.

2010-01-01

Observations of the solar wind plasma at 0.3 AU and beyond show that a turbulent spectrum of magnetic fluctuations is present. Remote sensing observations of the corona indicate that heavy ions are hotter than protons and their temperature is anisotropic (T(sub perpindicular / T(sub parallel) >> 1). We study the heating and the acceleration of multi-ion plasma in the solar wind by a turbulent spectrum of Alfvenic fluctuations using a 2-D hybrid numerical model. In the hybrid model the protons and heavy ions are treated kinetically as particles, while the electrons are included as neutralizing background fluid. This is the first two-dimensional hybrid parametric study of the solar wind plasma that includes an input turbulent wave spectrum guided by observation with inhomogeneous background density. We also investigate the effects of He++ ion beams in the inhomogeneous background plasma density on the heating of the solar wind plasma. The 2-D hybrid model treats parallel and oblique waves, together with cross-field inhomogeneity, self-consistently. We investigate the parametric dependence of the perpendicular heating, and the temperature anisotropy in the H+-He++ solar wind plasma. It was found that the scaling of the magnetic fluctuations power spectrum steepens in the higher-density regions, and the heating is channeled to these regions from the surrounding lower-density plasma due to wave refraction. The model parameters are applicable to the expected solar wind conditions at about 10 solar radii.

Comparison of model estimated and measured direct-normal solar irradiance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halthore, R.N.; Schwartz, S.E.; Michalsky, J.J.

1997-12-01

Direct-normal solar irradiance (DNSI), the energy in the solar spectrum incident in unit time at the Earth{close_quote}s surface on a unit area perpendicular to the direction to the Sun, depends only on atmospheric extinction of solar energy without regard to the details of the extinction, whether absorption or scattering. Here we report a set of closure experiments performed in north central Oklahoma in April 1996 under cloud-free conditions, wherein measured atmospheric composition and aerosol optical thickness are input to a radiative transfer model, MODTRAN 3, to estimate DNSI, which is then compared with measured values obtained with normal incidence pyrheliometersmore » and absolute cavity radiometers. Uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) dominates the uncertainty in DNSI calculation. AOT measured by an independently calibrated Sun photometer and a rotating shadow-band radiometer agree to within the uncertainties of each measurement. For 36 independent comparisons the agreement between measured and model-estimated values of DNSI falls within the combined uncertainties in the measurement (0.3{endash}0.7{percent}) and model calculation (1.8{percent}), albeit with a slight average model underestimate ({minus}0.18{plus_minus}0.94){percent}; for a DNSI of 839Wm{sup {minus}2} this corresponds to {minus}1.5{plus_minus}7.9Wm{sup {minus}2}. The agreement is nearly independent of air mass and water-vapor path abundance. These results thus establish the accuracy of the current knowledge of the solar spectrum, its integrated power, and the atmospheric extinction as a function of wavelength as represented in MODTRAN 3. An important consequence is that atmospheric absorption of short-wave energy is accurately parametrized in the model to within the above uncertainties. {copyright} 1997 American Geophysical Union« less

Multiscale computational modeling of a radiantly driven solar thermal collector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponnuru, Koushik

The objectives of the master's thesis are to present, discuss and apply sequential multiscale modeling that combines analytical, numerical (finite element-based) and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis to assist in the development of a radiantly driven macroscale solar thermal collector for energy harvesting. The solar thermal collector is a novel green energy system that converts solar energy to heat and utilizes dry air as a working heat transfer fluid (HTF). This energy system has important advantages over competitive technologies: it is self-contained (no energy sources are needed), there are no moving parts, no oil or supplementary fluids are needed and it is environmentally friendly since it is powered by solar radiation. This work focuses on the development of multi-physics and multiscale models for predicting the performance of the solar thermal collector. Model construction and validation is organized around three distinct and complementary levels. The first level involves an analytical analysis of the thermal transpiration phenomenon and models for predicting the associated mass flow pumping that occurs in an aerogel membrane in the presence of a large thermal gradient. Within the aerogel, a combination of convection, conduction and radiation occurs simultaneously in a domain where the pore size is comparable to the mean free path of the gas molecules. CFD modeling of thermal transpiration is not possible because all the available commercial CFD codes solve the Navier Stokes equations only for continuum flow, which is based on the assumption that the net molecular mass diffusion is zero. However, thermal transpiration occurs in a flow regime where a non-zero net molecular mass diffusion exists. Thus these effects are modeled by using Sharipov's [2] analytical expression for gas flow characterized by high Knudsen number. The second level uses a detailed CFD model solving Navier Stokes equations for momentum, heat and mass transfer in the various

A Model for the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antiochos, Spiro K.; Mikic, Z.; Lionello, R.; Titov, V.; Linker, J.

2010-05-01

Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: The slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates at the open-closed field boundary layer, but it also has large angular width, up to 40 degrees. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We calculate with high numerical resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind and magnetic field for a Carrington rotation centered about the August 1, 2008 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results demonstrate that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere, and propose further tests of the model. This work was supported, in part, by the NASA HTP, TR&T and SR&T programs.

Solar F10.7 radiation - A short term model for Space Station applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vedder, John D.; Tabor, Jill L.

1991-01-01

A new method is described for statistically modeling the F10.7 component of solar radiation for 91-day intervals. The resulting model represents this component of the solar flux as a quasi-exponentially correlated, Weibull distributed random variable, and thereby demonstrates excellent agreement with observed F10.7 data. Values of the F10.7 flux are widely used in models of the earth's upper atmosphere because of its high correlation with density fluctuations due to solar heating effects. Because of the direct relation between atmospheric density and drag, a realistic model of the short term fluctuation of the F10.7 flux is important for the design and operation of Space Station Freedom. The method of modeling this flux described in this report should therefore be useful for a variety of Space Station applications.

Constraining Large-Scale Solar Magnetic Field Models with Optical Coronal Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uritsky, V. M.; Davila, J. M.; Jones, S. I.

2015-12-01

Scientific success of the Solar Probe Plus (SPP) and Solar Orbiter (SO) missions will depend to a large extent on the accuracy of the available coronal magnetic field models describing the connectivity of plasma disturbances in the inner heliosphere with their source regions. We argue that ground based and satellite coronagraph images can provide robust geometric constraints for the next generation of improved coronal magnetic field extrapolation models. In contrast to the previously proposed loop segmentation codes designed for detecting compact closed-field structures above solar active regions, we focus on the large-scale geometry of the open-field coronal regions located at significant radial distances from the solar surface. Details on the new feature detection algorithms will be presented. By applying the developed image processing methodology to high-resolution Mauna Loa Solar Observatory images, we perform an optimized 3D B-line tracing for a full Carrington rotation using the magnetic field extrapolation code presented in a companion talk by S.Jones at al. Tracing results are shown to be in a good qualitative agreement with the large-scalie configuration of the optical corona. Subsequent phases of the project and the related data products for SSP and SO missions as wwll as the supporting global heliospheric simulations will be discussed.

Performance Analysis of Transposition Models Simulating Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-06-02

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined photovoltaic panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this work aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results show significant differences between two highly used isotropic transposition models, with one substantially underestimating the diffuse plane-of-array irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of the empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study can bemore » used as a guide for the future development of physics-based transposition models and evaluations of system performance.« less

DNDO Report: Predicting Solar Modulation Potentials for Modeling Cosmic Background Radiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Behne, Patrick Alan

The modeling of the detectability of special nuclear material (SNM) at ports and border crossings requires accurate knowledge of the background radiation at those locations. Background radiation originates from two main sources, cosmic and terrestrial. Cosmic background is produced by high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCR) entering the atmosphere and inducing a cascade of particles that eventually impact the earth’s surface. The solar modulation potential represents one of the primary inputs to modeling cosmic background radiation. Usosokin et al. formally define solar modulation potential as “the mean energy loss [per unit charge] of a cosmic ray particle inside the heliosphere…” Modulationmore » potential, a function of elevation, location, and time, shares an inverse relationship with cosmic background radiation. As a result, radiation detector thresholds require adjustment to account for differing background levels, caused partly by differing solar modulations. Failure to do so can result in higher rates of false positives and failed detection of SNM for low and high levels of solar modulation potential, respectively. This study focuses on solar modulation’s time dependence, and seeks the best method to predict modulation for future dates using Python. To address the task of predicting future solar modulation, we utilize both non-linear least squares sinusoidal curve fitting and cubic spline interpolation. This material will be published in transactions of the ANS winter meeting of November, 2016.« less

A reconstruction of solar irradiance using a flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dasi Espuig, Maria; Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Jiang, Jie

2012-07-01

Solar irradiance is one of the important drivers of the Earth's global climate, but it has only been measured for the past 33 years. Its reconstructions are therefore crucial to study longer term variations relevant to climate timescales. Most successful in reproducing the measured irradiance variations have being the models that are based on the assumption that irradiance changes are caused by the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field. Our SATIRE-S model is one of these, which uses solar full-disc magnetograms as an input, and these are available for less than four decades. To reconstruct the irradiance back to times when no observed magnetograms are available, we combine the SATIRE-S model with synthetic magnetograms, produced using a surface flux transport model. The model is fed with daily, observed or modelled statistically, records of sunspot positions, areas, and tilt angles. The concept of overlapping ephemeral region cycles is used to describe the secular change in the irradiance.

Modelling and Optimising the Value of a Hybrid Solar-Wind System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Arjun; Murali, Kartik; Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Arjunan, C. V.

2017-05-01

In this paper, a net present value (NPV) approach for a solar hybrid system has been presented. The system, in question aims at supporting an investor by assessing an investment in solar-wind hybrid system in a given area. The approach follow a combined process of modelling the system, with optimization of major investment-related variables to maximize the financial yield of the investment. The consideration of solar wind hybrid supply presents significant potential for cost reduction. The investment variables concern the location of solar wind plant, and its sizing. The system demand driven, meaning that its primary aim is to fully satisfy the energy demand of the customers. Therefore, the model is a practical tool in the hands of investor to assess and optimize in financial terms an investment aiming at covering real energy demand. Optimization is performed by taking various technical, logical constraints. The relation between the maximum power obtained between individual system and the hybrid system as a whole in par with the net present value of the system has been highlighted.

Students to Race Solar-Powered Model Cars

Science.gov Websites

- Forty-one teams of middle school students from across Colorado on Saturday will race model solar cars participating schools follows. PARTICIPATING SCHOOLS Below are the school names and the team members of the competing schools: Arvada Middle School - Arvada, CO Coach: Claudia VanWie Car # and name: 37 Team members

An interacting loop model of solar flare bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Emslie, A. G.

1981-01-01

As a result of the strong heating produced at chromospheric levels during a solar flare burst, the local gas pressure can transiently attain very large values in certain regions. The effectiveness of the surrounding magnetic field at confining this high pressure plasma is therefore reduced and the flaring loop becomes free to expand laterally. In so doing it may drive magnetic field lines into neighboring, nonflaring, loops in the same active region, causing magnetic reconnection to take place and triggering another flare burst. The features of this interacting loop model are found to be in good agreement with the energetics and time structure of flare associated solar hard X-ray bursts.

A Model fot the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antiochos, S. K.; Mikic, Z.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Linker, J. A.

2011-01-01

Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: the slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind also has large angular width, up to approx.60deg, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We propose a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We compute analytically the topology of an open-field corridor and show that it produces a quasi-separatrix layer in the heliosphere that extends to angles far from the heliospheric current sheet. We then use an MHD code and MDI/SOHO observations of the photospheric magnetic field to calculate numerically, with high spatial resolution, the quasi-steady solar wind, and magnetic field for a time period preceding the 2008 August 1 total solar eclipse. Our numerical results imply that, at least for this time period, a web of separatrices (which we term an S-web) forms with sufficient density and extent in the heliosphere to account for the observed properties of the slow wind. We discuss the implications of our S-web model for the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere and propose further tests of the model. Key words: solar wind - Sun: corona - Sun: magnetic topology

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuck, Peter W.; Linton, Mark; Muglach, Karin; Welsch, Brian; Hageman, Jacob

2010-01-01

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuck, Peter W.; Linton, M.; Muglach, K.; Hoeksema, T.

2010-01-01

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Modeling the Solar Probe Plus Dust Environment: Comparison with MESSENGER Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, S. B.; Strikwerda, T.

2009-12-01

NASA’s Solar Probe Plus mission will be the first to approach the Sun as close as 9 solar radii from the surface. This mission will provide the only in-situ observations of the Sun’s corona. In the absence of observational data (e.g. Helios, Pioneer), specifically at distances less than 0.4 AU, the precise ambient dust distributions at these distances remain unknown and limited to extrapolative models for distances < 1 AU (e.g. Mann et al. 2004). For the Solar Probe Plus mission, it has become critical to characterize the inner solar system dust environment in order to examine potential impacts on spacecraft health and attitude. We have implemented the Mann et al. (2004) and Grün et al. (1985) dust distribution theory along with Mie scattering effects to determine the magnitude of solar irradiance scattered towards an optical sensor such as a star tracker as a function of ecliptic latitude and longitude for distances 0.05 to 1 AU. Background irradiance data from NASA’s MESSENGER mission (down to 0.3 AU) reveal trends consistent with our model predictions, potentially validating Mann et al. (2004) and Grün et al. (1985) theory, but perhaps suggesting an enhancement of dust density short ward of 0.3 AU. This paper will present the scattering model and analysis of MESSENGER data gathered to date, during the phasing orbits, and includes star tracker background irradiance, irradiance distribution over the sky, and effects on star magnitude sensitivity and position accuracy.

Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

2018-02-01

Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL BABCOCK-LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miesch, Mark S.; Dikpati, Mausumi, E-mail: miesch@ucar.edu

We present a three-dimensional (3D) kinematic solar dynamo model in which poloidal field is generated by the emergence and dispersal of tilted sunspot pairs (more generally bipolar magnetic regions, or BMRs). The axisymmetric component of this model functions similarly to previous 2.5 dimensional (2.5D, axisymmetric) Babcock-Leighton (BL) dynamo models that employ a double-ring prescription for poloidal field generation but we generalize this prescription into a 3D flux emergence algorithm that places BMRs on the surface in response to the dynamo-generated toroidal field. In this way, the model can be regarded as a unification of BL dynamo models (2.5D in radius/latitude)more » and surface flux transport models (2.5D in latitude/longitude) into a more self-consistent framework that builds on the successes of each while capturing the full 3D structure of the evolving magnetic field. The model reproduces some basic features of the solar cycle including an 11 yr periodicity, equatorward migration of toroidal flux in the deep convection zone, and poleward propagation of poloidal flux at the surface. The poleward-propagating surface flux originates as trailing flux in BMRs, migrates poleward in multiple non-axisymmetric streams (made axisymmetric by differential rotation and turbulent diffusion), and eventually reverses the polar field, thus sustaining the dynamo. In this Letter we briefly describe the model, initial results, and future plans.« less

Cavity radiation model for solar central receivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lipps, F.W.

1981-01-01

The Energy Laboratory of the University of Houston has developed a computer simulation program called CREAM (i.e., Cavity Radiations Exchange Analysis Model) for application to the solar central receiver system. The zone generating capability of CREAM has been used in several solar re-powering studies. CREAM contains a geometric configuration factor generator based on Nusselt's method. A formulation of Nusselt's method provides support for the FORTRAN subroutine NUSSELT. Numerical results from NUSSELT are compared to analytic values and values from Sparrow's method. Sparrow's method is based on a double contour integral and its reduction to a single integral which is approximatedmore » by Guassian methods. Nusselt's method is adequate for the intended engineering applications, but Sparrow's method is found to be an order of magnitude more efficient in many situations.« less

Scaled-model guidelines for formation-flying solar coronagraph missions.

PubMed

Landini, Federico; Romoli, Marco; Baccani, Cristian; Focardi, Mauro; Pancrazzi, Maurizio; Galano, Damien; Kirschner, Volker

2016-02-15

Stray light suppression is the main concern in designing a solar coronagraph. The main contribution to the stray light for an externally occulted space-borne solar coronagraph is the light diffracted by the occulter and scattered by the optics. It is mandatory to carefully evaluate the diffraction generated by an external occulter and the impact that it has on the stray light signal on the focal plane. The scientific need for observations to cover a large portion of the heliosphere with an inner field of view as close as possible to the photospheric limb supports the ambition of launching formation-flying giant solar coronagraphs. Their dimension prevents the possibility of replicating the flight geometry in a clean laboratory environment, and the strong need for a scaled model is thus envisaged. The problem of scaling a coronagraph has already been faced for exoplanets, for a single point source on axis at infinity. We face the problem here by adopting an original approach and by introducing the scaling of the solar disk as an extended source.

Solar Week 2000: Using role models to encourage an interest in science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, D.

2000-12-01

Solar Week 2000 is a week-long set of games and activities allowing students to interact directly with solar science and solar scientists. The main goal of Solar Week was to provide young women, primarily in grades 6-8, with access to role models in the sciences. The scientists participating in Solar Week are women from a variety of backgrounds and with a variety of scientific expertise. An online bulletin board was used to foster discussion between the students and the scientists about both science and career issues. In this presentation I will discuss the successes and failures of the first run of Solar Week which occurred on 9-13 October 2000. Our aim is to provide some insight into doing activity-based space science on the web and to discuss the lessons-learned from tailoring to a specific group of participants.

Diagnosing Model Errors in Simulations of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-06-01

Transposition models have been widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined PV panels. Following numerous studies comparing the performance of transposition models, this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty. Our results suggest that an isotropic transposition model developed by Badescu substantially underestimates diffuse plane-of-array (POA) irradiances when diffuse radiation is perfectly isotropic. In the empirical transposition models, the selection of empirical coefficients and land surface albedo can both result in uncertainty in the output. This study can be used as amore » guide for future development of physics-based transposition models.« less

Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macneice, P. J.; Hesse, M.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Taktakishvili, A.

2009-01-01

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support.

Modeling and reconfiguration of solar photovoltaic arrays under non-uniform shadow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Dung Duc

will focus on the development of an adaptable solar array that is able to optimize power output, reconfigure itself when solar cells are damaged and create controllable output voltages and currents. This study will be a technological advancement over the existing technology of solar PV. Presently solar arrays are fixed arrays that require external device to control their output. In this research, the solar array will be able to self-reconfigure, leading to the following advantages: (1) Higher efficiency because no external devices are used. (2) Can reach maximum possible output power that is much higher than the maximum power of fixed solar arrays by arranging the solar cells in optimized connections. (3) Elimination of the hot spot effects. The proposed research has the following goals: First, to create a modeling and computing algorithm, which is able to simulate and analyze the effects of non-uniform changing shadows on the output power of solar PV arrays. Our model will be able to determine the power losses in each solar cell and the collective hot spots of an array. Second, to propose new methods, which are able to predict the performance of solar PV arrays under shadow conditions for long term (days, months, years). Finally, to develop adaptive reconfiguration algorithms to reconfigure connections within solar PV arrays in real time, under shadow conditions, in order to optimize output power.

Improving Soft X-Ray Spectral Irradiance Models for Use Throughout the Solar System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eparvier, F. G.; Thiemann, E.; Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

Understanding the effects of solar variability on planetary atmospheres has been hindered by the lack of accurate models and measurements of the soft x-ray (SXR) spectral irradiance (0-6 nm). Most measurements of the SXR have been broadband and are difficult to interpret due to changing spectral distribution under the pass band of the instruments. Models that use reference spectra for quiet sun, active region, and flaring contributions to irradiance have been made, but with limited success. The recent Miniature X-ray Solar Spectrometer (MinXSS) CubeSat made spectral measurements in the 0.04 - 3 nm range from June 2016 to May 2017, observing the Sun at many different levels of activity. In addition, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) has observed the Sun since May 2010, in both broad bands (including a band at 0-7 nm) and spectrally resolved (6-105 nm at 0.1 nm resolution). We will present an improved model of the SXR based on new reference spectra from MinXSS and SDO-EVE. The non-flaring portion of the model is driven by broadband SXR measurements for determining activity level and relative contributions of quiet and active sun. Flares are modeled using flare temperatures from the GOES X-Ray Sensors. The improved SXR model can be driven by any sensors that provide a measure of activity level and flare temperature from any vantage point in the solar system. As an example, a version of the model is using the broadband solar irradiance measurements from the MAVEN EUV Monitor at Mars will be presented.

Optimization methods and silicon solar cell numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girardini, K.

1986-01-01

The goal of this project is the development of an optimization algorithm for use with a solar cell model. It is possible to simultaneously vary design variables such as impurity concentrations, front junction depth, back junctions depth, and cell thickness to maximize the predicted cell efficiency. An optimization algorithm has been developed and interfaced with the Solar Cell Analysis Program in 1 Dimension (SCAPID). SCAPID uses finite difference methods to solve the differential equations which, along with several relations from the physics of semiconductors, describe mathematically the operation of a solar cell. A major obstacle is that the numerical methods used in SCAPID require a significant amount of computer time, and during an optimization the model is called iteratively until the design variables converge to the value associated with the maximum efficiency. This problem has been alleviated by designing an optimization code specifically for use with numerically intensive simulations, to reduce the number of times the efficiency has to be calculated to achieve convergence to the optimal solution. Adapting SCAPID so that it could be called iteratively by the optimization code provided another means of reducing the cpu time required to complete an optimization. Instead of calculating the entire I-V curve, as is usually done in SCAPID, only the efficiency is calculated (maximum power voltage and current) and the solution from previous calculations is used to initiate the next solution.

Dynamic modelling and simulation of linear Fresnel solar field model based on molten salt heat transfer fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hakkarainen, Elina; Tähtinen, Matti

2016-05-01

Demonstrations of direct steam generation (DSG) in linear Fresnel collectors (LFC) have given promising results related to higher steam parameters compared to the current state-of-the-art parabolic trough collector (PTC) technology using oil as heat transfer fluid (HTF). However, DSG technology lacks feasible solution for long-term thermal energy storage (TES) system. This option is important for CSP technology in order to offer dispatchable power. Recently, molten salts have been proposed to be used as HTF and directly as storage medium in both line-focusing solar fields, offering storage capacity of several hours. This direct molten salt (DMS) storage concept has already gained operational experience in solar tower power plant, and it is under demonstration phase both in the case of LFC and PTC systems. Dynamic simulation programs offer a valuable effort for design and optimization of solar power plants. In this work, APROS dynamic simulation program is used to model a DMS linear Fresnel solar field with two-tank TES system, and example simulation results are presented in order to verify the functionality of the model and capability of APROS for CSP modelling and simulation.

SELCO: A model for solar rural electrification in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hande, H. Harish

1999-11-01

The following thesis presents the concept of a Rural Energy Service Company in India, known as SELCO. The model is being set up as a sustainable proposition for the implementation of solar photovoltaics as a viable alternative to provide reliable home lighting in the rural areas of India. The SELCO approach has already achieved noteworthy social and commercial results. Institutional, policy and operational problems have long plagued the rural electrification programs in India, resulting in thousands of villages without access to electricity. SELCO is a solar energy service company operating in Southern India since 1995, focusing on the enormous untapped market for home lighting where thousands of households have no access to electricity and severe power shortages face those already connected to the electric grid. The Company has installed nearly 2,000 solar home lighting systems. From a modest two employees company in 1995, it has grown to 35 in 1997 and from one office to eight. The hypothesis to be tested in this study is that in rural India, in a market not subsidized by the government, a solar service company with available loans from local banks and cooperatives and with sales, installation, and maintenance personnel in the villages can be successful in introducing photovoltaic systems to provide basic amenities such as lighting and water pumping for the improvement of the quality of life, public health, and the environment. The initial success of SELCO lends considerable evidence to the acceptance of the hypothesis. To accomplish its mission, SELCO works with commercial, retail, and rural development banks with large rural branch networks to stimulate loans to SELCO's customers based on a standard set of attractive financing terms. SELCO through its successful model has convinced the policy makers that a way to increase rural families' access to consumer financing for solar home lighting systems is through the existing financial network available in the

The Evolution of the Solar Magnetic Field: A Comparative Analysis of Two Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMichael, K. D.; Karak, B. B.; Upton, L.; Miesch, M. S.; Vierkens, O.

2017-12-01

Understanding the complexity of the solar magnetic cycle is a task that has plagued scientists for decades. However, with the help of computer simulations, we have begun to gain more insight into possible solutions to the plethora of questions inside the Sun. STABLE (Surface Transport and Babcock Leighton) is a newly developed 3D dynamo model that can reproduce features of the solar cycle. In this model, the tilted bipolar sunspots are formed on the surface (based on the toroidal field at the bottom of the convection zone) and then decay and disperse, producing the poloidal field. Since STABLE is a 3D model, it is able to solve the full induction equation in the entirety of the solar convection zone as well as incorporate many free parameters (such as spot depth and turbulent diffusion) which are difficult to observe. In an attempt to constrain some of these free parameters, we compare STABLE to a surface flux transport model called AFT (Advective Flux Transport) which solves the radial component of the magnetic field on the solar surface. AFT is a state-of-the-art surface flux transport model that has a proven record of being able to reproduce solar observations with great accuracy. In this project, we implement synthetic bipolar sunspots into both models, using identical surface parameters, and run the models for comparison. We demonstrate that the 3D structure of the sunspots in the interior and the vertical diffusion of the sunspot magnetic field play an important role in establishing the surface magnetic field in STABLE. We found that when a sufficient amount of downward magnetic pumping is included in STABLE, the surface magnetic field from this model becomes insensitive to the internal structure of the sunspot and more consistent with that of AFT.

A Groundwater Model to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Brenda Solar Energy Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, John; Carr, Adrianne E.; Greer, Chris

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal to support utility-scale solar energy development at the Brenda Solar Energy Zone (SEZ), as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Solar Energy Program.

Statistical validation of a solar wind propagation model from 1 to 10 AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Bertalan; Hansen, Kenneth C.

2008-08-01

A one-dimensional (1-D) numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code is applied to propagate the solar wind from 1 AU through 10 AU, i.e., beyond the heliocentric distance of Saturn's orbit, in a non-rotating frame of reference. The time-varying boundary conditions at 1 AU are obtained from hourly solar wind data observed near the Earth. Although similar MHD simulations have been carried out and used by several authors, very little work has been done to validate the statistical accuracy of such solar wind predictions. In this paper, we present an extensive analysis of the prediction efficiency, using 12 selected years of solar wind data from the major heliospheric missions Pioneer, Voyager, and Ulysses. We map the numerical solution to each spacecraft in space and time, and validate the simulation, comparing the propagated solar wind parameters with in-situ observations. We do not restrict our statistical analysis to the times of spacecraft alignment, as most of the earlier case studies do. Our superposed epoch analysis suggests that the prediction efficiency is significantly higher during periods with high recurrence index of solar wind speed, typically in the late declining phase of the solar cycle. Among the solar wind variables, the solar wind speed can be predicted to the highest accuracy, with a linear correlation of 0.75 on average close to the time of opposition. We estimate the accuracy of shock arrival times to be as high as 10-15 hours within ±75 d from apparent opposition during years with high recurrence index. During solar activity maximum, there is a clear bias for the model to predicted shocks arriving later than observed in the data, suggesting that during these periods, there is an additional acceleration mechanism in the solar wind that is not included in the model.

Application of data assimilation to solar wind forecasting models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Innocenti, M.; Lapenta, G.; Vrsnak, B.; Temmer, M.; Veronig, A.; Bettarini, L.; Lee, E.; Markidis, S.; Skender, M.; Crespon, F.; Skandrani, C.; Soteria Space-Weather Forecast; Data Assimilation Team

2010-12-01

Data Assimilation through Kalman filtering [1,2] is a powerful statistical tool which allows to combine modeling and observations to increase the degree of knowledge of a given system. We apply this technique to the forecast of solar wind parameters (proton speed, proton temperature, absolute value of the magnetic field and proton density) at 1 AU, using the model described in [3] and ACE data as observations. The model, which relies on GOES 12 observations of the percentage of the meridional slice of the sun covered by coronal holes, grants 1-day and 6-hours in advance forecasts of the aforementioned quantities in quiet times (CMEs are not taken into account) during the declining phase of the solar cycle and is tailored for specific time intervals. We show that the application of data assimilation generally improves the quality of the forecasts during quiet times and, more notably, extends the periods of applicability of the model, which can now provide reliable forecasts also in presence of CMEs and for periods other than the ones it was designed for. Acknowledgement: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the grant agreement N. 218816 (SOTERIA project: http://www.soteria-space.eu). References: [1] R. Kalman, J. Basic Eng. 82, 35 (1960); [2] G. Welch and G. Bishop, Technical Report TR 95-041, University of North Carolina, Department of Computer Science (2001); [3] B. Vrsnak, M. Temmer, and A. Veronig, Solar Phys. 240, 315 (2007).

Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

2016-04-01

The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

A NEW THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLAR WIND MODEL IN SPHERICAL COORDINATES WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feng, Xueshang; Zhang, Man; Zhou, Yufen, E-mail: fengx@spaceweather.ac.cn

In this paper, we introduce a new three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics numerical model to simulate the steady state ambient solar wind from the solar surface to 215 R {sub s} or beyond, and the model adopts a splitting finite-volume scheme based on a six-component grid system in spherical coordinates. By splitting the magnetohydrodynamics equations into a fluid part and a magnetic part, a finite volume method can be used for the fluid part and a constrained-transport method able to maintain the divergence-free constraint on the magnetic field can be used for the magnetic induction part. This new second-order model in space andmore » time is validated when modeling the large-scale structure of the solar wind. The numerical results for Carrington rotation 2064 show its ability to produce structured solar wind in agreement with observations.« less

Solar Ion Processing of Itokawa Grains: Reconciling Model Predictions with Sample Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christoffersen, Roy; Keller, L. P.

2014-01-01

Analytical TEM observations of Itokawa grains reported to date show complex solar wind ion processing effects in the outer 30-100 nm of pyroxene and olivine grains. The effects include loss of long-range structural order, formation of isolated interval cavities or "bubbles", and other nanoscale compositional/microstructural variations. None of the effects so far described have, however, included complete ion-induced amorphization. To link the array of observed relationships to grain surface exposure times, we have adapted our previous numerical model for progressive solar ion processing effects in lunar regolith grains to the Itokawa samples. The model uses SRIM ion collision damage and implantation calculations within a framework of a constant-deposited-energy model for amorphization. Inputs include experimentally-measured amorphization fluences, a Pi steradian variable ion incidence geometry required for a rotating asteroid, and a numerical flux-versus-velocity solar wind spectrum.

The S-Web Model for the Sources of the Slow Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antiochos, Spiro K.; Karpen, Judith T.; DeVore, C. Richard

2012-01-01

Models for the origin of the slow solar wind must account for two seemingly contradictory observations: The slow wind has the composition of the closed-field corona, implying that it originates from the continuous opening and closing of flux at the boundary between open and closed field. On the other hand, the slow wind has large angular width, up to 60 degrees, suggesting that its source extends far from the open-closed boundary. We describe a model that can explain both observations. The key idea is that the source of the slow wind at the Sun is a network of narrow (possibly singular) open-field corridors that map to a web of separatrices (the S-Web) and quasi-separatrix layers in the heliosphere. We discuss the dynamics of the S-Web model and its implications for present observations and for the upcoming observations from Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.

Solar Spicules: A Review of Recent Models and Targets for Future Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Since their discovery over 100 years ago, there have been many suggestions for the origin and development of solar spicules. Because the velocities of spicules are comparable to the sound and Alfven speeds of the low chromosphere, linear theory cannot fully describe them. Consequently, detailed tests of theoretical ideas had to await the development of computing power that only became available during the 1970s. This work reviews theories for spicules and spicule-like features over approximately the past 25 years, with an emphasis on the models based on nonlinear numerical simulations. These models have given us physical insight into wave propagation in the solar atmosphere, and have helped elucidate how such waves, and associated shock waves, may be capable of creating motions and structures on magnetic flux tubes in the lower solar atmosphere. So far, however, it has been difficult to reproduce the most- commonly -quoted parameters for spicules with these models, using what appears to be the most suitable input parameters. A key impediment to developing satisfactory models has been the lack of reliable observational information, which is a consequence of the small angular size and transient lifetime of spicules. I close with a list of key observational questions to be addressed with space-based satellites, such as the currently operating TRACE satellite, and especially the upcoming Solar-B mission. Answers to these questions will help determine which, if any, of the current models correctly explains spicules.

Solar Spicules: A Review of Recent Models and Targets for Future Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.

2000-01-01

Since their discovery over 100 years ago, there have been many suggestions for the origin and development of solar spicules. Because the velocities of spicules are comparable to the sound and Alfven speeds of the low chromosphere, linear theory cannot fully describe them. Consequently, detailed tests of theoretical ideas had to await the development of computing power that only became available during the 1970s. This work reviews theories for spicules and spicule-like features over approximately the past 25 years, with an emphasis an the models based on nonlinear numerical simulations. These models have given us physical insight into wave propagation in the solar atmosphere and have helped elucidate how such waves, and associated shock waves, may be capable of creating motions and structures on magnetic flux tubes in the lower solar atmosphere. So far, however, it has been difficult to reproduce the most commonly quoted parameters for spicules with these models, using what appears to be the most suitable input parameters. A key impediment to developing satisfactory models has been the lack of reliable observational information, which is a consequence of the small angular size and transient lifetime of spicules. I close with a list of key observational questions to be addressed with space-based satellites, such as the currently operating Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) satellite, and especially the upcoming Solar-B mission. Answers to these questions will help determine which, if any, of the current models correctly explains spicules.

A three-dimensional model of solar radiation transfer in a non-uniform plant canopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levashova, N. T.; Mukhartova, Yu V.

2018-01-01

A three-dimensional (3D) model of solar radiation transfer in a non-uniform plant canopy was developed. It is based on radiative transfer equations and a so-called turbid medium assumption. The model takes into account the multiple scattering contributions of plant elements in radiation fluxes. These enable more accurate descriptions of plant canopy reflectance and transmission in different spectral bands. The model was applied to assess the effects of plant canopy heterogeneity on solar radiation transmission and to quantify the difference in a radiation transfer between photosynthetically active radiation PAR (=0.39-0.72 μm) and near infrared solar radiation NIR (Δλ = 0.72-3.00 μm). Comparisons of the radiative transfer fluxes simulated by the 3D model within a plant canopy consisted of sparsely planted fruit trees (plant area index, PAI - 0.96 m2 m-2) with radiation fluxes simulated by a one-dimensional (1D) approach, assumed horizontal homogeneity of plant and leaf area distributions, showed that, for sunny weather conditions with a high solar elevation angle, an application of a simplified 1D approach can result in an underestimation of transmitted solar radiation by about 22% for PAR, and by about 26% for NIR.

Probabilistic Solar Energetic Particle Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adams, James H., Jr.; Dietrich, William F.; Xapsos, Michael A.

2011-01-01

To plan and design safe and reliable space missions, it is necessary to take into account the effects of the space radiation environment. This is done by setting the goal of achieving safety and reliability with some desired level of confidence. To achieve this goal, a worst-case space radiation environment at the required confidence level must be obtained. Planning and designing then proceeds, taking into account the effects of this worst-case environment. The result will be a mission that is reliable against the effects of the space radiation environment at the desired confidence level. In this paper we will describe progress toward developing a model that provides worst-case space radiation environments at user-specified confidence levels. We will present a model for worst-case event-integrated solar proton environments that provide the worst-case differential proton spectrum. This model is based on data from IMP-8 and GOES spacecraft that provide a data base extending from 1974 to the present. We will discuss extending this work to create worst-case models for peak flux and mission-integrated fluence for protons. We will also describe plans for similar models for helium and heavier ions.

Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP): Cumulative and Worst Case Event Fluences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, M. A.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Burke, E. A.; Gee, G. B.

1999-01-01

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.

Space Environment Effects: Model for Emission of Solar Protons (ESP)--Cumulative and Worst-Case Event Fluences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xapsos, M. A.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Burke, Edward A.; Gee, G. B.

1999-01-01

The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary and polar orbits and for interplanetary missions. Designers of spacecraft and mission planners are required to assess the performance of microelectronic systems under a variety of conditions. A number of useful approaches exist for predicting information about solar proton event fluences and, to a lesser extent, peak fluxes. This includes the cumulative fluence over the course of a mission, the fluence of a worst-case event during a mission, the frequency distribution of event fluences, and the frequency distribution of large peak fluxes. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, under the sponsorship of NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program, have developed a new model for predicting cumulative solar proton fluences and worst-case solar proton events as functions of mission duration and user confidence level. This model is called the Emission of Solar Protons (ESP) model.

Modeling photovoltaic performance in periodic patterned colloidal quantum dot solar cells.

PubMed

Fu, Yulan; Dinku, Abay G; Hara, Yukihiro; Miller, Christopher W; Vrouwenvelder, Kristina T; Lopez, Rene

2015-07-27

Colloidal quantum dot (CQD) solar cells have attracted tremendous attention mostly due to their wide absorption spectrum window and potentially low processability cost. The ultimate efficiency of CQD solar cells is highly limited by their high trap state density. Here we show that the overall device power conversion efficiency could be improved by employing photonic structures that enhance both charge generation and collection efficiencies. By employing a two-dimensional numerical model, we have calculated the characteristics of patterned CQD solar cells based of a simple grating structure. Our calculation predicts a power conversion efficiency as high as 11.2%, with a short circuit current density of 35.2 mA/cm2, a value nearly 1.5 times larger than the conventional flat design, showing the great potential value of patterned quantum dot solar cells.

Neural network modelling of thermal stratification in a solar DHW storage

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geczy-Vig, P.; Farkas, I.

2010-05-15

In this study an artificial neural network (ANN) model is introduced for modelling the layer temperatures in a storage tank of a solar thermal system. The model is based on the measured data of a domestic hot water system. The temperatures distribution in the storage tank divided in 8 equal parts in vertical direction were calculated every 5 min using the average 5 min data of solar radiation, ambient temperature, mass flow rate of collector loop, load and the temperature of the layers in previous time steps. The introduced ANN model consists of two parts describing the load periods andmore » the periods between the loads. The identified model gives acceptable results inside the training interval as the average deviation was 0.22 C during the training and 0.24 C during the validation. (author)« less

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Guangdong; Turchi, Craig

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error andmore » receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.« less

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Guangdong; Turchi, Craig

2017-01-27

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error andmore » receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.« less

A theoretical model of the variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Gopal; Choudhuri, Arnab Rai

2017-12-01

Observations of the meridional circulation of the Sun, which plays a key role in the operation of the solar dynamo, indicate that its speed varies with the solar cycle, becoming faster during the solar minima and slower during the solar maxima. To explain this variation of the meridional circulation with the solar cycle, we construct a theoretical model by coupling the equation of the meridional circulation (the ϕ component of the vorticity equation within the solar convection zone) with the equations of the flux transport dynamo model. We consider the back reaction due to the Lorentz force of the dynamo-generated magnetic fields and study the perturbations produced in the meridional circulation due to it. This enables us to model the variations of the meridional circulation without developing a full theory of the meridional circulation itself. We obtain results which reproduce the observational data of solar cycle variations of the meridional circulation reasonably well. We get the best results on assuming the turbulent viscosity acting on the velocity field to be comparable to the magnetic diffusivity (i.e. on assuming the magnetic Prandtl number to be close to unity). We have to assume an appropriate bottom boundary condition to ensure that the Lorentz force cannot drive a flow in the subadiabatic layers below the bottom of the tachocline. Our results are sensitive to this bottom boundary condition. We also suggest a hypothesis on how the observed inward flow towards the active regions may be produced.

Contribution to the modeling of solar spicules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavabi, E.; Koutchmy, S.; Ajabshirizadeh, A.

2011-06-01

Solar limb and disk spicule quasi-periodic motions have been reported for a long time, strongly suggesting that they are oscillating. In order to clear up the origin and possibly explain some solar limb and disk spicule quasi-periodic recurrences produced by overlapping effects, we present a simulation model assuming quasi-random positions of spicules. We also allow a set number of spicules with different physical properties (such as: height, lifetime and tilt angle as shown by an individual spicule) occurring randomly. Results of simulations made with three different spatial resolutions of the corresponding frames and also for different number density of spicules, are analyzed. The wavelet time/frequency method is used to obtain the exact period of spicule visibility. Results are compared with observations of the chromosphere from (i) the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) filtergrams taken at 1600 Å, (ii) the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) of Hinode taken in the Ca II H-line and (iii) the Sac-Peak Dunn's VTT taken in Hα line. Our results suggest the need to be cautious when interpreting apparent oscillations seen in spicule image sequences when overlapping is present, i.e., when the spatial resolution is not enough to resolve individual components of spicules.

Solar Plus: A Holistic Approach to Distributed Solar PV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

OShaughnessy, Eric J.; Ardani, Kristen B.; Cutler, Dylan S.

Solar 'plus' refers to an emerging approach to distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment that uses energy storage and controllable devices to optimize customer economics. The solar plus approach increases customer system value through technologies such as electric batteries, smart domestic water heaters, smart air-conditioner (AC) units, and electric vehicles We use an NREL optimization model to explore the customer-side economics of solar plus under various utility rate structures and net metering rates. We explore optimal solar plus applications in five case studies with different net metering rates and rate structures. The model deploys different configurations of PV, batteries, smart domesticmore » water heaters, and smart AC units in response to different rate structures and customer load profiles. The results indicate that solar plus improves the customer economics of PV and may mitigate some of the negative impacts of evolving rate structures on PV economics. Solar plus may become an increasingly viable model for optimizing PV customer economics in an evolving rate environment.« less

Data-driven Model of the ICME Propagation through the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalim, M. S.; Pogorelov, N.; Singh, T.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The solar wind (SW) emerging from the Sun is the main driving mechanism of solar events which may lead to geomagnetic storms that are the primary causes of space weather disturbances that affect the magnetic environment of Earth and may have hazardous effects on the space-borne and ground-based technological systems as well as human health. Therefore, accurate modeling of the SW is very important to understand the underlying mechanisms of such storms.Getting ready for the Parker Solar Probe mission, we have developed a data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the global solar corona which utilizes characteristic boundary conditions implemented within the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) - a collection of problem oriented routines incorporated into the Chombo adaptive mesh refinement framework developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Our global solar corona model can be driven by both synoptic and synchronic vector magnetogram data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDO/HMI) and the horizontal velocity data on the photosphere obtained by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimatorfor Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method on the HMI-observed vector magnetic fields.Our CME generation model is based on Gibson-Low-type flux ropes the parameters of which are determined from analysis of observational data from STEREO/SECCHI, SDO/AIA and SOHO/LASCO, and by applying the Graduate Cylindrical Shell model for the flux rope reconstruction.In this study, we will present the results of three-dimensional global simulations of ICME propagation through our characteristically-consistent MHD model of the background SW from the Sun to Earth driven by HMI-observed vector magnetic fields and validate our results using multiple spacecraft data at 1 AU.

Solar Corona/Wind Composition and Origins of the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepri, S. T.; Gilbert, J. A.; Landi, E.; Shearer, P.; von Steiger, R.; Zurbuchen, T.

2014-12-01

Measurements from ACE and Ulysses have revealed a multifaceted solar wind, with distinctly different kinetic and compositional properties dependent on the source region of the wind. One of the major outstanding issues in heliophysics concerns the origin and also predictability of quasi-stationary slow solar wind. While the fast solar wind is now proven to originate within large polar coronal holes, the source of the slow solar wind remains particularly elusive and has been the subject of long debate, leading to models that are stationary and also reconnection based - such as interchange or so-called S-web based models. Our talk will focus on observational constraints of solar wind sources and their evolution during the solar cycle. In particular, we will point out long-term variations of wind composition and dynamic properties, particularly focused on the abundance of elements with low First Ionization Potential (FIP), which have been routinely measured on both ACE and Ulysses spacecraft. We will use these in situ observations, and remote sensing data where available, to provide constraints for solar wind origin during the solar cycle, and on their correspondence to predictions for models of the solar wind.

Optimized dispatch in a first-principles concentrating solar power production model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagner, Michael J.; Newman, Alexandra M.; Hamilton, William T.

Concentrating solar power towers, which include a steam-Rankine cycle with molten salt thermal energy storage, is an emerging technology whose maximum effectiveness relies on an optimal operational and dispatch policy. Given parameters such as start-up and shut-down penalties, expected electricity price profiles, solar availability, and system interoperability requirements, this paper seeks a profit-maximizing solution that determines start-up and shut-down times for the power cycle and solar receiver, and the times at which to dispatch stored and instantaneous quantities of energy over a 48-h horizon at hourly fidelity. The mixed-integer linear program (MIP) is subject to constraints including: (i) minimum andmore » maximum rates of start-up and shut-down, (ii) energy balance, including energetic state of the system as a whole and its components, (iii) logical rules governing the operational modes of the power cycle and solar receiver, and (iv) operational consistency between time periods. The novelty in this work lies in the successful integration of a dispatch optimization model into a detailed techno-economic analysis tool, specifically, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM). The MIP produces an optimized operating strategy, historically determined via a heuristic. Using several market electricity pricing profiles, we present comparative results for a system with and without dispatch optimization, indicating that dispatch optimization can improve plant profitability by 5-20% and thereby alter the economics of concentrating solar power technology. While we examine a molten salt power tower system, this analysis is equally applicable to the more mature concentrating solar parabolic trough system with thermal energy storage.« less

Evaluating predictive models for solar energy growth in the US states and identifying the key drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Joheen; Banerji, Sugata

2018-03-01

Driven by a desire to control climate change and reduce the dependence on fossil fuels, governments around the world are increasing the adoption of renewable energy sources. However, among the US states, we observe a wide disparity in renewable penetration. In this study, we have identified and cleaned over a dozen datasets representing solar energy penetration in each US state, and the potentially relevant socioeconomic and other factors that may be driving the growth in solar. We have applied a number of predictive modeling approaches - including machine learning and regression - on these datasets over a 17-year period and evaluated the relative performance of the models. Our goals were: (1) identify the most important factors that are driving the growth in solar, (2) choose the most effective predictive modeling technique for solar growth, and (3) develop a model for predicting next year’s solar growth using this year’s data. We obtained very promising results with random forests (about 90% efficacy) and varying degrees of success with support vector machines and regression techniques (linear, polynomial, ridge). We also identified states with solar growth slower than expected and representing a potential for stronger growth in future.

Solar Irradiance Variability is Caused by the Magnetic Activity on the Solar Surface.

PubMed

Yeo, Kok Leng; Solanki, Sami K; Norris, Charlotte M; Beeck, Benjamin; Unruh, Yvonne C; Krivova, Natalie A

2017-09-01

The variation in the radiative output of the Sun, described in terms of solar irradiance, is important to climatology. A common assumption is that solar irradiance variability is driven by its surface magnetism. Verifying this assumption has, however, been hampered by the fact that models of solar irradiance variability based on solar surface magnetism have to be calibrated to observed variability. Making use of realistic three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar atmosphere and state-of-the-art solar magnetograms from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, we present a model of total solar irradiance (TSI) that does not require any such calibration. In doing so, the modeled irradiance variability is entirely independent of the observational record. (The absolute level is calibrated to the TSI record from the Total Irradiance Monitor.) The model replicates 95% of the observed variability between April 2010 and July 2016, leaving little scope for alternative drivers of solar irradiance variability at least over the time scales examined (days to years).

Extinct radioactivities - A three-phase mixing model. [for early solar system abundances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, D. D.

1983-01-01

A new class of models is advanced for interpreting the relationship of radioactive abundances in the early solar system to their average concentration in the interstellar medium. The model assumes that fresh radioactivities are ejected from supernovae into the hot interstellar medium, and that the time scales for changes of phase into molecular clouds determine how much survives for formation therein of the solar system. A more realistic and physically motivated understanding of the low observed concentrations of I-129, Pu-244, and Pd-107 may result.

Solar wind stream evolution at large heliocentric distances - Experimental demonstration and the test of a model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gosling, J. T.; Hundhausen, A. J.; Bame, S. J.

1976-01-01

A stream propagation model which neglects all dissipation effects except those occurring at shock interfaces, was used to compare Pioneer-10 solar wind speed observations, during the time when Pioneer 10, the earth, and the sun were coaligned, with near-earth Imp-7 observations of the solar wind structure, and with the theoretical predictions of the solar wind structure at Pioneer 10 derived from the Imp-7 measurements, using the model. The comparison provides a graphic illustration of the phenomenon of stream steepening in the solar wind with the attendant formation of forward-reverse shock pairs and the gradual decay of stream amplitudes with increasing heliocentric distance. The comparison also provides a qualitative test of the stream propagation model.

Unified Models of Turbulence and Nonlinear Wave Evolution in the Extended Solar Corona and Solar Wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cranmer, Steven R.; Wagner, William (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

The PI (Cranmer) and Co-I (A. van Ballegooijen) made substantial progress toward the goal of producing a unified model of the basic physical processes responsible for solar wind acceleration. The approach outlined in the original proposal comprised two complementary pieces: (1) to further investigate individual physical processes under realistic coronal and solar wind conditions, and (2) to extract the dominant physical effects from simulations and apply them to a 1D model of plasma heating and acceleration. The accomplishments in Year 2 are divided into these two categories: 1a. Focused Study of Kinetic Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Turbulence. lb. Focused Study of Non - WKB Alfven Wave Rejection. and 2. The Unified Model Code. We have continued the development of the computational model of a time-study open flux tube in the extended corona. The proton-electron Monte Carlo model is being tested, and collisionless wave-particle interactions are being included. In order to better understand how to easily incorporate various kinds of wave-particle processes into the code, the PI performed a detailed study of the so-called "Ito Calculus", i.e., the mathematical theory of how to update the positions of particles in a probabilistic manner when their motions are governed by diffusion in velocity space.

Faraday Rotation and Models for the Plasma Structure of the Solar Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancuso, Salvatore; Spangler, Steven R.

2000-08-01

Faraday rotation observations of polarized radiation from natural radio sources are unique among remote diagnostics of the solar corona in that they provide information on the coronal magnetic field. Dual frequency radio polarization measurements yield the rotation measure, a quantity that is proportional to the integral along the line of sight of the product of the electron density and the line-of-sight component of the magnetic field. We made linear polarization observations with the NRAO Very Large Array of 13 polarized radio sources occulted by the solar corona. The observations were made at frequencies of 1465 and 1665 MHz on four days in 1997 May and cover a 20 day period, sampling elongations ranging from about 5 to 14 Rsolar. The magnitudes of the rotation measures observed range from about 11 to 0 rad m-2. The relatively low values for the rotation measures are due to the solar minimum configuration of the corona at the time of the observations, with the lines of sight to the sources generally not crossing sector boundaries. The largest rotation measure was observed for the extended radio source 3C 79 on 1997 May 11 and corresponds to a case in which the line of sight passed next to the streamer belt at small solar elongations. We have developed a three-dimensional model of the solar corona that is in excellent agreement with the observed rotation measures, as well as being completely consistent with other coronal diagnostics such as coronagraph images. In particular, our observations support the coronal magnetic field model of Pätzold et al. (1987) they would be inconsistent with coronal magnetic fields significantly weaker or stronger than this model. The plasma density distribution in the corona is successfully modeled by a dense streamer belt component and a more tenuous coronal hole component. Details of these models are given in § 3 of this paper. The principal disagreement between the model and observations occurs for three lines of sight for

Effect of Grain Boundaries on the Performance of Thin-Film-Based Polycrystalline Silicon Solar Cells: A Numerical Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chhetri, Nikita; Chatterjee, Somenath

2018-01-01

Solar cells/photovoltaic, a renewable energy source, is appraised to be the most effective alternative to the conventional electrical energy generator. A cost-effective alternative of crystalline wafer-based solar cell is thin-film polycrystalline-based solar cell. This paper reports the numerical analysis of dependency of the solar cell parameters (i.e., efficiency, fill factor, open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current density) on grain size for thin-film-based polycrystalline silicon (Si) solar cells. A minority carrier lifetime model is proposed to do a correlation between the grains, grain boundaries and lifetime for thin-film-based polycrystalline Si solar cells in MATLAB environment. As observed, the increment in the grain size diameter results in increase in minority carrier lifetime in polycrystalline Si thin film. A non-equivalent series resistance double-diode model is used to find the dark as well as light (AM1.5) current-voltage (I-V) characteristics for thin-film-based polycrystalline Si solar cells. To optimize the effectiveness of the proposed model, a successive approximation method is used and the corresponding fitting parameters are obtained. The model is validated with the experimentally obtained results reported elsewhere. The experimentally reported solar cell parameters can be found using the proposed model described here.

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Avrett, Eugene H.

1993-01-01

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Process-to-Panel Modeling and Multiprobe Characterization of Silicon Heterojunction Solar Cell Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavali, Raghu Vamsi Krishna

The large-scale deployment of PV technology is very sensitive to the material and process costs. There are several potential candidates among p-n heterojunction (HJ) solar cells competing for higher efficiencies at lower material and process costs. These systems are, however, generally complex, involve diverse materials, and are not well understood. The direct translation of classical p-n homojunction theory to p-n HJ cells may not always be self-consistent and can lead, therefore, to misinterpretation of experimental results. Ultimately, this translation may not be useful for modeling and characterization of these solar cells. Hence, there is a strong need to redefine/reinterpret the modeling/characterization methodologies for HJ solar cells to produce a self-consistent framework for optimizing HJ solar cell designs. Towards this goal, we explore the physics and interpret characterization experiments of p-n HJs using Silicon HJ (HIT) solar cells. We will: (1) identify the key HJ properties that affect the cell efficiency; (2) analyze the dependence of key HJ properties on the carrier transport under light and dark conditions; (3) provide a selfconsistent multi-probe approach to extract the HJ parameters using several characterization techniques including dark I-V, light I-V, C-V, impedance spectroscopy, and Suns-Voc; (4) propose design guidelines to address the HJ bottlenecks of HIT cells; and (5) develop a process-to-module modeling framework to establish the module performance limits. The guidelines resulting from this multi-scale and self-consistent framework can be used to improve performance of HIT cells as well as other HJ based solar cells.

Model of Energy Spectrum Parameters of Ground Level Enhancement Events in Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.-S.; Qin, G.

2018-01-01

Mewaldt et al. (2012) fitted the observations of the ground level enhancement (GLE) events during solar cycle 23 to the double power law equation to obtain the four spectral parameters, the normalization constant C, low-energy power law slope γ1, high-energy power law slope γ2, and break energy E0. There are 16 GLEs from which we select 13 for study by excluding some events with complicated situation. We analyze the four parameters with conditions of the corresponding solar events. According to solar event conditions, we divide the GLEs into two groups, one with strong acceleration by interplanetary shocks and another one without strong acceleration. By fitting the four parameters with solar event conditions we obtain models of the parameters for the two groups of GLEs separately. Therefore, we establish a model of energy spectrum of solar cycle 23 GLEs, which may be used in prediction in the future.

Geophysical, archaeological and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, C.A.; Hsu, K.J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2(N) (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called 'little ice ages,' similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280-1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.

Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change

PubMed Central

Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J.

2000-01-01

Although the processes of climate change are not completely understood, an important causal candidate is variation in total solar output. Reported cycles in various climate-proxy data show a tendency to emulate a fundamental harmonic sequence of a basic solar-cycle length (11 years) multiplied by 2N (where N equals a positive or negative integer). A simple additive model for total solar-output variations was developed by superimposing a progression of fundamental harmonic cycles with slightly increasing amplitudes. The timeline of the model was calibrated to the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary at 9,000 years before present. The calibrated model was compared with geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence of warm or cold climates during the Holocene. The evidence of periods of several centuries of cooler climates worldwide called “little ice ages,” similar to the period anno Domini (A.D.) 1280–1860 and reoccurring approximately every 1,300 years, corresponds well with fluctuations in modeled solar output. A more detailed examination of the climate sensitive history of the last 1,000 years further supports the model. Extrapolation of the model into the future suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near little-ice-age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum. PMID:11050181

Utilization of solar radiation by polar animals: an optical model for pelts.

PubMed

Grojean, R E; Sousa, J A; Henry, M C

1980-02-01

A summary of existing passive solar-heat conversion panels provides the basis for a definition of an ideal passive solar-heat converter. Evidence for the existence of a biological greenhouse effect in certain homopolar homeothermic species is reviewed. The thermal and optical properties of homeothermic pelts, in particular those of the polar bear, are described, and a qualitative optical model of the polar bear pelt is proposed. The effectiveness of polar bear and seal pelts as solar-heat converters is discussed, and comparison is made with the ideal converter.

Stochastic Modelling, Analysis, and Simulations of the Solar Cycle Dynamic Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Douglas C.; Ladde, Gangaram S.

2018-03-01

Analytical solutions, discretization schemes and simulation results are presented for the time delay deterministic differential equation model of the solar dynamo presented by Wilmot-Smith et al. In addition, this model is extended under stochastic Gaussian white noise parametric fluctuations. The introduction of stochastic fluctuations incorporates variables affecting the dynamo process in the solar interior, estimation error of parameters, and uncertainty of the α-effect mechanism. Simulation results are presented and analyzed to exhibit the effects of stochastic parametric volatility-dependent perturbations. The results generalize and extend the work of Hazra et al. In fact, some of these results exhibit the oscillatory dynamic behavior generated by the stochastic parametric additative perturbations in the absence of time delay. In addition, the simulation results of the modified stochastic models influence the change in behavior of the very recently developed stochastic model of Hazra et al.

Solar particle events observed at Mars: dosimetry measurements and model calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleghorn, T.; Saganti, P.; Zeitlin, C.; Cucinotta, F.

The first solar particle events from a Martian orbit are observed with the MARIE (Martian Radiation Environment Experiment) on the 2001 Mars Odyssey space -craft that is currently in orbit and collecting the mapping data of the red planet. These solar particle events observed at Mars during March and April 2002, are correlated with the GOES-8 and ACE satellite data from the same time period at Earth orbits. Dosimetry measurements for the Mars orbit from the period of March 13t h through April 29t h . Particle count rate and the corresponding dose rate enhancements were observed on March 16t h through 20t h and on April 22n d corresponding to solar particle events that were observed at Earth orbit on March 16t h through 21s t and beginning on April 21s t respectively. The model calculations with the HZETRN (High Z=atomic number and high Energy Transport) code estimated the background GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) dose rates. The dose rates observed by the MARIE instrument are within 10% of the model calculations. Dosimetry measurements and model calculation will be presented.

Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

2016-11-01

Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

Dynamic Modeling of Solar Dynamic Components and Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hochstein, John I.; Korakianitis, T.

1992-01-01

The purpose of this grant was to support NASA in modeling efforts to predict the transient dynamic and thermodynamic response of the space station solar dynamic power generation system. In order to meet the initial schedule requirement of providing results in time to support installation of the system as part of the initial phase of space station, early efforts were executed with alacrity and often in parallel. Initially, methods to predict the transient response of a Rankine as well as a Brayton cycle were developed. Review of preliminary design concepts led NASA to select a regenerative gas-turbine cycle using a helium-xenon mixture as the working fluid and, from that point forward, the modeling effort focused exclusively on that system. Although initial project planning called for a three year period of performance, revised NASA schedules moved system installation to later and later phases of station deployment. Eventually, NASA selected to halt development of the solar dynamic power generation system for space station and to reduce support for this project to two-thirds of the original level.

Advanced power cycles and configurations for solar towers: Modeling and optimization of the decoupled solar combined cycle concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Barberena, Javier; Olcoz, Asier; Sorbet, Fco. Javier

2017-06-01

CSP technologies are essential to allow large shares of renewables into the grid due to their unique ability to cope with the large variability of the energy resource by means of technically and economically feasible thermal energy storage (TES) systems. However, there is still the need and sought to achieve technological breakthroughs towards cost reductions and increased efficiencies. For this, research on advanced power cycles, like the Decoupled Solar Combined Cycle (DSCC) is, are regarded as a key objective. The DSCC concept is, basically, a Combined Brayton-Rankine cycle in which the bottoming cycle is decoupled from the operation of the topping cycle by means of an intermediate storage system. According to this concept, one or several solar towers driving a solar air receiver and a Gas Turbine (Brayton cycle) feed through their exhaust gasses a single storage system and bottoming cycle. This general concept benefits from a large flexibility in its design. On the one hand, different possible schemes related to number and configuration of solar towers, storage systems media and configuration, bottoming cycles, etc. are possible. On the other, within a specific scheme a large number of design parameters can be optimized, including the solar field size, the operating temperatures and pressures of the receiver, the power of the Brayton and Rankine cycles, the storage capacity and others. Heretofore, DSCC plants have been analyzed by means of simple steady-state models with pre-stablished operating parameters in the power cycles. In this work, a detailed transient simulation model for DSCC plants has been developed and is used to analyze different DSCC plant schemes. For each of the analyzed plant schemes, a sensitivity analysis and selection of the main design parameters is carried out. Results show that an increase in annual solar to electric efficiency of 30% (from 12.91 to 16.78) can be achieved by using two bottoming Rankine cycles at two different

AEETES - A solar reflux receiver thermal performance numerical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, R.E. Jr.

1994-02-01

Reflux solar receivers for dish-Stirling electric power generation systems are currently being investigated by several companies and laboratories. In support of these efforts, the AEETES thermal performance numerical model has been developed to predict thermal performance of pool-boiler and heat-pipe reflux receivers. The formulation of the AEETES numerical model, which is applicable to axisymmetric geometries with asymmetric incident fluxes, is presented in detail. Thermal efficiency predictions agree to within 4.1% with test data from on-sun tests of a pool-boiler reflux receiver. Predicted absorber and sidewall temperatures agree with thermocouple data to within 3.3 and 7.3%, respectively. The importance of accountingmore » for the asymmetric incident fluxes is demonstrated in comparisons with predictions using azimuthally averaged variables. The predicted receiver heat losses are characterized in terms of convective, solar radiative, and infrared radiative, and conductive heat transfer mechanisms.« less

Precipitation response to solar geoengineering in a high-resolution tropical-cyclone permitting coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, P. J.; Keith, D.; Dykema, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Horowitz, L. W.

2016-12-01

Solar geoengineering may limit or even halt the rise in global-average surface temperatures. Evidence from the geoMIP model intercomparison project shows that idealized geoengineering can greatly reduce temperature changes on a region-by-region basis. If solar geoengineering is used to hold radiative forcing or surface temperatures constant in the face of rising CO2, then the global evaporation and precipitation rates will be reduced below pre-industrial. The spartial and frequency distribution of the precipitation response is, however, much less well understood. There is limited evidence that solar geoengineering may reduce extreme precipitation events more that it reduces mean precipitation, but that evidence is based on relatively course resolution models that may to a poor job representing the distribution of extreme precipitation in the current climate. The response of global and regional climate, as well as tropical cyclone (TC) activity, to increasing solar geoengineering is explored through experiments with climate models spanning a broad range of atmospheric resolutions. Solar geoengineering is represented by an idealized adjustment of the solar constant that roughly halves the rate of increase in radiative forcing in a scenario with increasing CO2 concentration. The coarsest resolution model has approximately a 2-degree global resolution, representative of the typical resolution of past GCMs used to explore global response to CO2 increase, and its response is compared to that of two tropical cyclone permitting GCMs of approximately 0.5 and 0.25 degree resolution (FLOR and HiFLOR). The models have exactly the same ocean and sea-ice components, as well as the same parameterizations and parameter settings. These high-resolution models are used for real-time seasonal prediction, providing a unified framework for seasonal-to-multidecadal climate modeling. We assess the extreme precipitation response, comparing the frequency distribution of extreme events with

Development of a computational model for predicting solar wind flows past nonmagnetic terrestrial planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stahara, S. S.; Spreiter, J. R.

1983-01-01

A computational model for the determination of the detailed plasma and magnetic field properties of the global interaction of the solar wind with nonmagnetic terrestrial planetary obstacles is described. The theoretical method is based on an established single fluid, steady, dissipationless, magnetohydrodynamic continuum model, and is appropriate for the calculation of supersonic, super-Alfvenic solar wind flow past terrestrial ionospheres.

Solar Coronal Jets: Observations, Theory, and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raouafi, N. E.; Patsourakos, S.; Pariat, E.; Young, P. R.; Sterling, A. C.; Savcheva, A.; Shimojo, M.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; DeVore, C. R.; Archontis, V.;

Solar Coronal Jets: Observations, Theory, and Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raouafi, N. E.; Patsourakos, S.; Pariat, E.; Young, P. R.; Sterling, A.; Savcheva, A.; Shimojo, M.; Moreno-Insertis, F.; Devore, C. R.; Archontis, V.;

Solar Control of Earth's Ionosphere: Observations from Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doe, R. A.; Thayer, J. P.; Solomon, S. C.

2005-05-01

A nine year database of sunlit E-region electron density altitude profiles (Ne(z)) measured by the Sondrestrom ISR has been partitioned over a 30-bin parameter space of averaged 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) and solar zenith angle (χ) to investigate long-term solar and thermospheric variability, and to validate contemporary EUV photoionization models. A two stage filter, based on rejection of Ne(z) profiles with large Hall to Pedersen ratio, is used to minimize auroral contamination. Resultant filtered mean Ne(z) compares favorably with subauroral Ne measured for the same F10.7 and χ conditions at the Millstone Hill ISR. Mean Ne, as expected, increases with solar activity and decreases with large χ, and the variance around mean Ne is shown to be greatest at low F10.7 (solar minimum). ISR-derived mean Ne is compared with two EUV models: (1) a simple model without photoelectrons and based on the 5 -- 105 nm EUVAC model solar flux [Richards et al., 1994] and (2) the GLOW model [Solomon et al., 1988; Solomon and Abreu, 1989] suitably modified for inclusion of XUV spectral components and photoelectron flux. Across parameter space and for all altitudes, Model 2 provides a closer match to ISR mean Ne and suggests that the photoelectron and XUV enhancements are essential to replicate measured plasma densities below 150 km. Simulated Ne variance envelopes, given by perturbing the Model 2 neutral atmosphere input by the measured extremum in Ap, F10.7, and Te, are much narrower than ISR-derived geophysical variance envelopes. We thus conclude that long-term variability of the EUV spectra dominates over thermospheric variability and that EUV spectral variability is greatest at solar minimum. ISR -- model comparison also provides evidence for the emergence of an H (Lyman β) Ne feature at solar maximum. Richards, P. G., J. A. Fennelly, and D. G. Torr, EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 8981, 1994. Solomon, S. C., P. B. Hays

A model for straight and helical solar jets: II. Parametric study of the plasma beta.

PubMed

Pariat, E; Dalmasse, K; DeVore, C R; Antiochos, S K; Karpen, J T

2016-12-01

Jets are dynamic, impulsive, well-collimated plasma events that develop at many different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Jets are believed to be induced by magnetic reconnection, a process central to many astrophysical phenomena. Within the solar atmosphere, jet-like events develop in many different environments, e.g., in the vicinity of active regions as well as in coronal holes, and at various scales, from small photospheric spicules to large coronal jets. In all these events, signatures of helical structure and/or twisting/rotating motions are regularly observed. The present study aims to establish that a single model can generally reproduce the observed properties of these jet-like events. In this study, using our state-of-the-art numerical solver ARMS, we present a parametric study of a numerical tridimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of solar jet-like events. Within the MHD paradigm, we study the impact of varying the atmospheric plasma β on the generation and properties of solar-like jets. The parametric study validates our model of jets for plasma β ranging from 10 -3 to 1, typical of the different layers and magnetic environments of the solar atmosphere. Our model of jets can robustly explain the generation of helical solar jet-like events at various β ≤ 1. This study introduces the new original result that the plasma β modifies the morphology of the helical jet, explaining the different observed shapes of jets at different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Our results allow us to understand the energisation, triggering, and driving processes of jet-like events. Our model allows us to make predictions of the impulsiveness and energetics of jets as determined by the surrounding environment, as well as the morphological properties of the resulting jets.

A Model for Straight and Helical Solar Jets: II. Parametric Study of the Plasma Beta

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pariat, E.; Dalmasse, K.; DeVore, C. R.; Antiochos, S. K.; Karpen, J. T.

2016-01-01

Context. Jets are dynamic, impulsive, well-collimated plasma events that develop at many different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Aims. Jets are believed to be induced by magnetic reconnection, a process central to many astrophysical phenomena. Within the solar atmosphere, jet-like events develop in many different environments, e.g. in the vicinity of active regions as well as in coronal holes, and at various scales, from small photospheric spicules to large coronal jets. In all these events, signatures of helical structure and/or twisting/rotating motions are regularly observed. The present study aims to establish that a single model can generally reproduce the observed properties of these jet-like events. Methods. In this study, using our state-of-the-art numerical solver ARMS, we present a parametric study of a numerical tridimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of solar jet-like events. Within the MHD paradigm, we study the impact of varying the atmospheric plasma beta on the generation and properties of solar-like jets. Results. The parametric study validates our model of jets for plasma beta ranging from 10(sup 3) to 1, typical of the different layers and magnetic environments of the solar atmosphere. Our model of jets can robustly explain the generation of helical solar jet-like events at various beta less than or equal to 1. We show that the plasma beta modifies the morphology of the helical jet, explaining the different observed shapes of jets at different scales and in different layers of the solar atmosphere. Conclusions. Our results allow us to understand the energisation, triggering, and driving processes of jet-like events. Our model allows us to make predictions of the impulsiveness and energetics of jets as determined by the surrounding environment, as well as the morphological properties of the resulting jets.

Training and Validation of the Fast PCRTM_Solar Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Liu, X.; Wu, W.; Yang, P.; Wang, C.

2015-12-01

Fast and accurate radiative transfer model is the key for satellite data assimilation for remote sensing application. The simulation of the satellite remote sensing radiances is very complicated since many physical processes, such as absorption, emission, and scattering, are involved due to the interactions between electromagnetic radiation and earth surface, water vapor, clouds, aerosols, and gas molecules in the sky. The principal component-based radiative transfer model (PCRTM) has been developed for various passive IR and MW instruments. In this work, we extended PCRTM to including the contribution from solar radiation. The cloud/aerosol bidirectional reflectances have been carefully calculated using the well-known Discrete-Ordinate-Method Radiative Transfer (DISORT) model under over 10 millions of diverse conditions with varying cloud particle size, wavelength, satellite viewing direction, and solar angles. The obtained results were compressed significantly using principal component analysis and used in the mono domain radiance calculation. We used 1352 different atmosphere profiles, each of them has different surface skin temperatures and surface pressures in our training. Different surface emissivity spectra were derived from ASTER database and emissivity models. Some artificially generated emissivity spectra were also used to account for diverse surface types of the earth. Concentrations of sixteen trace gases were varied systematically in the training and the remaining trace gas contributions were accounted for as a fixed gas. Training was done in both clear and cloudy skies conditions. Finally the nonlocal thermal equilibrium (NLTE) induced radiance change was included for daytime conditions. We have updated the PCRTM model for instruments such as IASI, NASTI, CrIS, AIRS, and SHIS. The training results show that the PCRTM model can calculate thousands of channel radiances by computing only a few hundreds of mono radiances. This greatly increased the

Relationship between a solar drying model of red pepper and the kinetics of pure water evaporation (1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Passamai, V.; Saravia, L.

1997-05-01

Drying of red pepper under solar radiation was investigated, and a simple model related to water evaporation was developed. Drying experiments at constant laboratory conditions were undertaken where solar radiation was simulated by a 1,000 W lamp. In this first part of the work, water evaporation under radiation is studied and laboratory experiments are presented with two objectives: to verify Penman`s model of evaporation under radiation, and to validate the laboratory experiments. Modifying Penman`s model of evaporation by introducing two drying conductances as a function of water content, allows the development of a drying model under solar radiation. In themore » second part of this paper, the model is validated by applying it to red pepper open air solar drying experiments.« less

A preliminary theoretical line-blanketed model solar photosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurucz, R. L.

1974-01-01

In the theoretical approach to model-atmosphere construction, all opacities are computed theoretically and the temperature-pressure structure is determined by conservation of energy. Until recently, this has not been a very useful method for later type stars, because the line opacity was both poorly known and difficult to calculate. However, methods have now been developed that are capable of representing the line opacity well enough for construction of realistic models. A preliminary theoretical solar model is presented that produces closer agreement with observation than has been heretofore possible. The qualitative advantages and shortcomings of this model are discussued and projected improvements are outlined.

Variation of solar cell sensitivity and solar radiation on tilted surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klucher, T. M.

1978-01-01

An empirical study was performed (1) to evaluate the validity of various insolation models used to compute solar radiation incident on tilted surfaces from global data measured on horizontal surfaces and (2) to determine the variation of solar cell sensitivity to solar radiation over a wide range of atmospheric condition. Evaluation of the insolation data indicates that the isotropic sky model of Liu and Jordan underestimates the amount of solar radiation falling on tilted surfaces by as much as 10%. An anisotropic-clear-sky model proposed by Temps and Coulson was also evaluated and found to be deficient under cloudy conditions. A new model, formulated herein, reduced the deviations between measured and predicted insolation to less than 3%. Evaluation of solar cell sensitivity data indicates small change (2-3%) in sensitivity from winter to summer for tilted cells. The feasibility of using such global data as a means for calibrating terrestrial solar cells as done by Treble is discussed.

A Groundwater Model to Assess Water Resource Impacts at the Imperial East Solar Energy Zone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, John; Greer, Chris; O'Connor, Ben L.

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study is to develop a groundwater flow model to examine the influence of potential groundwater withdrawal to support the utility-scale solar energy development at the Imperial East Solar Energy Zone (SEZ) as a part of the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM) solar energy program.

Solar irradiance variability: a six-year comparison between SORCE observations and the SATIRE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S.; Harder, J. W.

2011-06-01

Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model and compare modeled total solar irradiance (TSI) with TSI measurements over the period 25 February 2003 to 1 November 2009. Spectral solar irradiance over 200-1630 nm is compared with the SIM instrument on SORCE over the period 21 April 2004 to 1 November 2009. We discuss the overall change in flux and the rotational and long-term trends during this period of decline from moderate activity to the recent solar minimum in ~10 nm bands and for three spectral regions of significant interest: the UV integrated over 200-300 nm, the visible over 400-691 nm and the IR between 972-1630 nm. Results: The model captures 97% of the observed TSI variation. This is on the order at which TSI detectors agree with each other during the period considered. In the spectral comparison, rotational variability is well reproduced, especially between 400 and 1200 nm. The magnitude of change in the long-term trends is many times larger in SIM at almost all wavelengths while trends in SIM oppose SATIRE in the visible between 500 and 700 nm and again between 1000 and 1200 nm. We discuss the remaining issues with both SIM data and the identified limits of the model, particularly with the way facular contributions are dealt with, the limit of flux identification in MDI magnetograms during solar minimum and the model atmospheres in the IR employed by SATIRE. However, it is unlikely that improvements in these areas will significantly enhance the agreement in the long-term trends. This disagreement implies that some mechanism other than surface magnetism is causing SSI variations, in particular between 2004 and 2006, if the SIM data are correct. Since SATIRE was able to reproduce UV irradiance between 1991 and 2002 from UARS, either the solar mechanism for SSI

Are Solar Activity Variations Amplified by the QBO: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengel, J. G.; Mayr, H. G.; Drob, D. P.; Porter, H. S.; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Solar cycle activity effects (SCAE) in the lower and middle atmosphere, reported in several studies, are difficult to explain on the basis of the small changes in solar radiation that accompany the 11-year cycle. It is therefore natural to speculate that dynamical processes may come into play to produce a leverage. Such a leverage may be provided by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the zonal circulation of the stratosphere, which has been linked to solar activity variations. Driven primarily by wave mean flow interaction, the QBO period and its amplitude are variable but are also strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle in the solar radiation. This influence extends to low altitudes and is referred to as 'downward control'. Small changes in the solar radiative forcing may produce small changes in the period and phase of the QBO, but these in turn may produce measurable differences in the wind field. Thus, the QBO may be an amplifier of solar activity variations and a natural conduit of these variations to lower altitudes. To test this hypothesis, we conducted experiments with a 2D version of our Numerical Spectral Model that incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization for small-scale gravity waves (GW). Solar cycle radiance variations (SCRV) are accounted for by changing the radiative heating rate on a logarithmic scale from 0.1% at the surface to 1% at 50 km to 10% at 100 km. With and without SCRV, but with the same GW flux, we then conduct numerical experiments to evaluate the magnitude of the SCAE in the zonal circulation. The numerical results indicate that, under certain conditions, the SCAE is significant and can extend to lower altitudes where the SCRV is small. For a modeled QBO period of 30 months, we find that the seasonal cycle in the solar forcing acts as a strong pacemaker to lock up the phase and period of the QBO. The SCAE then shows up primarily as a distinct but relatively weak amplitude modulation. But with a different QBO period

A Model for Optimizing the Combination of Solar Electricity Generation, Supply Curtailment, Transmission and Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Marc J. R.

With extraordinary recent growth of the solar photovoltaic industry, it is paramount to address the biggest barrier to its high-penetration across global electrical grids: the inherent variability of the solar resource. This resource variability arises from largely unpredictable meteorological phenomena and from the predictable rotation of the earth around the sun and about its own axis. To achieve very high photovoltaic penetration, the imbalance between the variable supply of sunlight and demand must be alleviated. The research detailed herein consists of the development of a computational model which seeks to optimize the combination of 3 supply-side solutions to solar variability that minimizes the aggregate cost of electricity generated therefrom: Storage (where excess solar generation is stored when it exceeds demand for utilization when it does not meet demand), interconnection (where solar generation is spread across a large geographic area and electrically interconnected to smooth overall regional output) and smart curtailment (where solar capacity is oversized and excess generation is curtailed at key times to minimize the need for storage.). This model leverages a database created in the context of this doctoral work of satellite-derived photovoltaic output spanning 10 years at a daily interval for 64,000 unique geographic points across the globe. Underpinning the model's design and results, the database was used to further the understanding of solar resource variability at timescales greater than 1-day. It is shown that--as at shorter timescales--cloud/weather-induced solar variability decreases with geographic extent and that the geographic extent at which variability is mitigated increases with timescale and is modulated by the prevailing speed of clouds/weather systems. Unpredictable solar variability up to the timescale of 30 days is shown to be mitigated across a geographic extent of only 1500km if that geographic extent is oriented in a north

Performance Analysis of Transposition Models Simulating Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yu; Sengupta, Manajit

2016-06-01

Transposition models are widely used in the solar energy industry to simulate solar radiation on inclined photovoltaic (PV) panels. These transposition models have been developed using various assumptions about the distribution of the diffuse radiation, and most of the parameterizations in these models have been developed using hourly ground data sets. Numerous studies have compared the performance of transposition models, but this paper aims to understand the quantitative uncertainty in the state-of-the-art transposition models and the sources leading to the uncertainty using high-resolution ground measurements in the plane of array. Our results suggest that the amount of aerosol optical depthmore » can affect the accuracy of isotropic models. The choice of empirical coefficients and the use of decomposition models can both result in uncertainty in the output from the transposition models. It is expected that the results of this study will ultimately lead to improvements of the parameterizations as well as the development of improved physical models.« less