Water Market-scale Agricultural Planning: Promoting Competing Water Resource Use Efficiency Through Agro-Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, J. D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Where strong water rights law and corresponding markets exist as a coupled econo-legal mechanism, water rights holders are permitted to trade allocations to promote economic water resource use efficiency. In locations where hydrologic uncertainty drives the assignment of annual per-water right allocation values by water resource managers, collaborative water resource decision making by water rights holders, specifically those involved in agricultural production, can result in both resource and economic Pareto efficiency. Such is the case in semi-arid North Chile, where interactions between representative farmer groups, treated as competitive bilateral monopolies, and modeled at water market-scale, can provide both price and water right allocation distribution signals for unregulated, temporary water right leasing markets. For the range of feasible per-water right allocation values, a coupled agricultural-economic model is developed to describe the equilibrium distribution of water, the corresponding market price of water rights and the net surplus generated by collaboration between competing agricultural uses. Further, this research describes a per-water right inflection point for allocations where economic efficiency is not possible, and where price negotiation among competing agricultural uses is required. An investigation of the effects of water right supply and demand inequality at the market-scale is completed to characterize optimal market performance under existing water rights law. The broader insights of this research suggest that water rights holders engaged in agriculture can achieve economic benefits from forming crop-type cooperatives and by accurately assessing the economic value of allocation.

Game Theoretic Modeling of Water Resources Allocation Under Hydro-Climatic Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Lall, U.; Siegfried, T.

2005-12-01

Typical hydrologic and economic modeling approaches rely on assumptions of climate stationarity and economic conditions of ideal markets and rational decision-makers. In this study, we incorporate hydroclimatic variability with a game theoretic approach to simulate and evaluate common water allocation paradigms. Game Theory may be particularly appropriate for modeling water allocation decisions. First, a game theoretic approach allows economic analysis in situations where price theory doesn't apply, which is typically the case in water resources where markets are thin, players are few, and rules of exchange are highly constrained by legal or cultural traditions. Previous studies confirm that game theory is applicable to water resources decision problems, yet applications and modeling based on these principles is only rarely observed in the literature. Second, there are numerous existing theoretical and empirical studies of specific games and human behavior that may be applied in the development of predictive water allocation models. With this framework, one can evaluate alternative orderings and rules regarding the fraction of available water that one is allowed to appropriate. Specific attributes of the players involved in water resources management complicate the determination of solutions to game theory models. While an analytical approach will be useful for providing general insights, the variety of preference structures of individual players in a realistic water scenario will likely require a simulation approach. We propose a simulation approach incorporating the rationality, self-interest and equilibrium concepts of game theory with an agent-based modeling framework that allows the distinct properties of each player to be expressed and allows the performance of the system to manifest the integrative effect of these factors. Underlying this framework, we apply a realistic representation of spatio-temporal hydrologic variability and incorporate the impact of decision-making a priori to hydrologic realizations and those made a posteriori on alternative allocation mechanisms. Outcomes are evaluated in terms of water productivity, net social benefit and equity. The performance of hydro-climate prediction modeling in each allocation mechanism will be assessed. Finally, year-to-year system performance and feedback pathways are explored. In this way, the system can be adaptively managed toward equitable and efficient water use.

Calculation method of water injection forward modeling and inversion process in oilfield water injection network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Long; Liu, Wei

2018-04-01

A forward modeling and inversion algorithm is adopted in order to determine the water injection plan in the oilfield water injection network. The main idea of the algorithm is shown as follows: firstly, the oilfield water injection network is inversely calculated. The pumping station demand flow is calculated. Then, forward modeling calculation is carried out for judging whether all water injection wells meet the requirements of injection allocation or not. If all water injection wells meet the requirements of injection allocation, calculation is stopped, otherwise the demand injection allocation flow rate of certain step size is reduced aiming at water injection wells which do not meet requirements, and next iterative operation is started. It is not necessary to list the algorithm into water injection network system algorithm, which can be realized easily. Iterative method is used, which is suitable for computer programming. Experimental result shows that the algorithm is fast and accurate.

Stochastic Optimization For Water Resources Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamout, G.; Hatfield, K.

2003-12-01

For more than 40 years, water resources allocation problems have been addressed using deterministic mathematical optimization. When data uncertainties exist, these methods could lead to solutions that are sub-optimal or even infeasible. While optimization models have been proposed for water resources decision-making under uncertainty, no attempts have been made to address the uncertainties in water allocation problems in an integrated approach. This paper presents an Integrated Dynamic, Multi-stage, Feedback-controlled, Linear, Stochastic, and Distributed parameter optimization approach to solve a problem of water resources allocation. It attempts to capture (1) the conflict caused by competing objectives, (2) environmental degradation produced by resource consumption, and finally (3) the uncertainty and risk generated by the inherently random nature of state and decision parameters involved in such a problem. A theoretical system is defined throughout its different elements. These elements consisting mainly of water resource components and end-users are described in terms of quantity, quality, and present and future associated risks and uncertainties. Models are identified, modified, and interfaced together to constitute an integrated water allocation optimization framework. This effort is a novel approach to confront the water allocation optimization problem while accounting for uncertainties associated with all its elements; thus resulting in a solution that correctly reflects the physical problem in hand.

Impact of water allocation strategies to manage groundwater resources in Western Australia: Equity and efficiency considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iftekhar, Md Sayed; Fogarty, James

2017-05-01

In many parts of the world groundwater is being depleting at an alarming rate. Where groundwater extraction is licenced, regulators often respond to resource depletion by reducing all individual licences by a fixed proportion. This approach can be effective in achieving a reduction in the volume of water extracted, but the approach is not efficient. In water resource management the issue of the equity-efficiency trade-off has been explored in a number of contexts, but not in the context of allocation from a groundwater system. To contribute to this knowledge gap we conduct an empirical case study for Western Australia's most important groundwater system: the Gnangara Groundwater System (GGS). Resource depletion is a serious issue for the GGS, and substantial reductions in groundwater extraction are required to stabilise the system. Using an individual-based farm optimization model we study both the overall impact and the distributional impact of a fixed percentage water allocation cut to horticulture sector licence holders. The model is parameterised using water licence specific data on farm area and water allocation. The modelling shows that much of the impact of water allocation reductions can be mitigated through changing the cropping mix and the irrigation technology used. The modelling also shows that the scope for gains through the aggregation of holdings into larger farms is much greater than the potential losses due to water allocation reductions. The impact of water allocation cuts is also shown to impact large farms more than small farms. For example, the expected loss in net revenue per ha for a 10-ha farm is around three times the expected loss per ha for a 1-ha farm; and the expected loss per ha for a 25-ha farm is around five times the expected loss per ha for a 1-ha farm.

A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems through a consistent agent-based modeling framework.

PubMed

Zhao, Jianshi; Cai, Ximing; Wang, Zhongjing

2013-07-15

Water allocation can be undertaken through administered systems (AS), market-based systems (MS), or a combination of the two. The debate on the performance of the two systems has lasted for decades but still calls for attention in both research and practice. This paper compares water users' behavior under AS and MS through a consistent agent-based modeling framework for water allocation analysis that incorporates variables particular to both MS (e.g., water trade and trading prices) and AS (water use violations and penalties/subsidies). Analogous to the economic theory of water markets under MS, the theory of rational violation justifies the exchange of entitled water under AS through the use of cross-subsidies. Under water stress conditions, a unique water allocation equilibrium can be achieved by following a simple bargaining rule that does not depend upon initial market prices under MS, or initial economic incentives under AS. The modeling analysis shows that the behavior of water users (agents) depends on transaction, or administrative, costs, as well as their autonomy. Reducing transaction costs under MS or administrative costs under AS will mitigate the effect that equity constraints (originating with primary water allocation) have on the system's total net economic benefits. Moreover, hydrologic uncertainty is shown to increase market prices under MS and penalties/subsidies under AS and, in most cases, also increases transaction, or administrative, costs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal dynamic water allocation: Irrigation extractions and environmental tradeoffs in the Murray River, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grafton, R. Quentin; Chu, Hoang Long; Stewardson, Michael; Kompas, Tom

2011-12-01

A key challenge in managing semiarid basins, such as in the Murray-Darling in Australia, is to balance the trade-offs between the net benefits of allocating water for irrigated agriculture, and other uses, versus the costs of reduced surface flows for the environment. Typically, water planners do not have the tools to optimally and dynamically allocate water among competing uses. We address this problem by developing a general stochastic, dynamic programming model with four state variables (the drought status, the current weather, weather correlation, and current storage) and two controls (environmental release and irrigation allocation) to optimally allocate water between extractions and in situ uses. The model is calibrated to Australia's Murray River that generates: (1) a robust qualitative result that "pulse" or artificial flood events are an optimal way to deliver environmental flows over and above conveyance of base flows; (2) from 2001 to 2009 a water reallocation that would have given less to irrigated agriculture and more to environmental flows would have generated between half a billion and over 3 billion U.S. dollars in overall economic benefits; and (3) water markets increase optimal environmental releases by reducing the losses associated with reduced water diversions.

Application of the environmental Gini coefficient in allocating water governance responsibilities: a case study in Taihu Lake Basin, China.

PubMed

Zhou, Shenbei; Du, Amin; Bai, Minghao

2015-01-01

The equitable allocation of water governance responsibilities is very important yet difficult to achieve, particularly for a basin which involves many stakeholders and policymakers. In this study, the environmental Gini coefficient model was applied to evaluate the inequality of water governance responsibility allocation, and an environmental Gini coefficient optimisation model was built to achieve an optimal adjustment. To illustrate the application of the environmental Gini coefficient, the heavily polluted transboundary Taihu Lake Basin in China, was chosen as a case study. The results show that the original environmental Gini coefficient of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) was greater than 0.2, indicating that the allocation of water governance responsibilities in Taihu Lake Basin was unequal. Of seven decision-making units, three were found to be inequality factors and were adjusted to reduce the water pollutant emissions and to increase the water governance inputs. After the adjustment, the environmental Gini coefficient of the COD was less than 0.2 and the reduction rate was 27.63%. The adjustment process provides clear guidance for policymakers to develop appropriate policies and improve the equality of water governance responsibility allocation.

Water resources planning and management : A stochastic dual dynamic programming approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goor, Q.; Pinte, D.; Tilmant, A.

2008-12-01

Allocating water between different users and uses, including the environment, is one of the most challenging task facing water resources managers and has always been at the heart of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). As water scarcity is expected to increase over time, allocation decisions among the different uses will have to be found taking into account the complex interactions between water and the economy. Hydro-economic optimization models can capture those interactions while prescribing efficient allocation policies. Many hydro-economic models found in the literature are formulated as large-scale non linear optimization problems (NLP), seeking to maximize net benefits from the system operation while meeting operational and/or institutional constraints, and describing the main hydrological processes. However, those models rarely incorporate the uncertainty inherent to the availability of water, essentially because of the computational difficulties associated stochastic formulations. The purpose of this presentation is to present a stochastic programming model that can identify economically efficient allocation policies in large-scale multipurpose multireservoir systems. The model is based on stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP), an extension of traditional SDP that is not affected by the curse of dimensionality. SDDP identify efficient allocation policies while considering the hydrologic uncertainty. The objective function includes the net benefits from the hydropower and irrigation sectors, as well as penalties for not meeting operational and/or institutional constraints. To be able to implement the efficient decomposition scheme that remove the computational burden, the one-stage SDDP problem has to be a linear program. Recent developments improve the representation of the non-linear and mildly non- convex hydropower function through a convex hull approximation of the true hydropower function. This model is illustrated on a cascade of 14 reservoirs on the Nile river basin.

Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

GIS and Game Theory for Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganjali, N.; Guney, C.

2017-11-01

In this study, aspects of Game theory and its application on water resources management combined with GIS techniques are detailed. First, each term is explained and the advantages and limitations of its aspect is discussed. Then, the nature of combinations between each pair and literature on the previous studies are given. Several cases were investigated and results were magnified in order to conclude with the applicability and combination of GIS- Game Theory- Water Resources Management. It is concluded that the game theory is used relatively in limited studies of water management fields such as cost/benefit allocation among users, water allocation among trans-boundary users in water resources, water quality management, groundwater management, analysis of water policies, fair allocation of water resources development cost and some other narrow fields. Also, Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Most of the literature on water allocation and conflict problems uses traditional optimization models to identify the most efficient scheme while the Game Theory, as an optimization method, combined GIS are beneficial platforms for agent based models to be used in solving Water Resources Management problems in the further studies.

Sensitivity analysis of key components in large-scale hydroeconomic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Connell, C. R.; Lund, J. R.; Howitt, R. E.

2008-12-01

This paper explores the likely impact of different estimation methods in key components of hydro-economic models such as hydrology and economic costs or benefits, using the CALVIN hydro-economic optimization for water supply in California. In perform our analysis using two climate scenarios: historical and warm-dry. The components compared were perturbed hydrology using six versus eighteen basins, highly-elastic urban water demands, and different valuation of agricultural water scarcity. Results indicate that large scale hydroeconomic hydro-economic models are often rather robust to a variety of estimation methods of ancillary models and components. Increasing the level of detail in the hydrologic representation of this system might not greatly affect overall estimates of climate and its effects and adaptations for California's water supply. More price responsive urban water demands will have a limited role in allocating water optimally among competing uses. Different estimation methods for the economic value of water and scarcity in agriculture may influence economically optimal water allocation; however land conversion patterns may have a stronger influence in this allocation. Overall optimization results of large-scale hydro-economic models remain useful for a wide range of assumptions in eliciting promising water management alternatives.

Water allocation assessment in low flow river under data scarce conditions: a study of hydrological simulation in Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Bangash, Rubab F; Passuello, Ana; Hammond, Michael; Schuhmacher, Marta

2012-12-01

River Francolí is a small river in Catalonia (northeastern Spain) with an average annual low flow (~2 m(3)/s). The purpose of the River Francolí watershed assessments is to support and inform region-wide planning efforts from the perspective of water protection, climate change and water allocation. In this study, a hydrological model of the Francolí River watershed was developed for use as a tool for watershed planning, water resource assessment, and ultimately, water allocation purposes using hydrological data from 2002 to 2006 inclusive. The modeling package selected for this application is DHI's MIKE BASIN. This model is a strategic scale water resource management simulation model, which includes modeling of both land surface and subsurface hydrological processes. Topographic, land use, hydrological, rainfall, and meteorological data were used to develop the model segmentation and input. Due to the unavailability of required catchment runoff data, the NAM rainfall-runoff model was used to calculate runoff of all the sub-watersheds. The results reveal a potential pressure on the availability of groundwater and surface water in the lower part of River Francolí as was expected by the IPCC for Mediterranean river basins. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area and data scarcity, a comprehensive physically based method was required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined ArcGIS/MIKE BASIN models appear as a useful tool to assess the hydrological cycle and to better understand water allocation to different sectors in the Francolí River watershed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming approach for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chenglong; Guo, Ping

2017-10-01

The vague and fuzzy parametric information is a challenging issue in irrigation water management problems. In response to this problem, a generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained linear fractional programming (GFCCFP) model is developed for optimal irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. The model can be derived from integrating generalized fuzzy credibility-constrained programming (GFCCP) into a linear fractional programming (LFP) optimization framework. Therefore, it can solve ratio optimization problems associated with fuzzy parameters, and examine the variation of results under different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and necessary. It has advantages in: (1) balancing the economic and resources objectives directly; (2) analyzing system efficiency; (3) generating more flexible decision solutions by giving different credibility levels and weight coefficients of possibility and (4) supporting in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, credibility level and weight coefficient. The model is applied to a case study of irrigation water allocation in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. Therefore, optimal irrigation water allocation solutions from the GFCCFP model can be obtained. Moreover, factorial analysis on the two parameters (i.e. λ and γ) indicates that the weight coefficient is a main factor compared with credibility level for system efficiency. These results can be effective for support reasonable irrigation water resources management and agricultural production.

A policy evaluation tool: Management of a multiaquifer system using controlled stream recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Danskin, Wesley R.; Gorelick, Steven M.

1985-01-01

A model for the optimal allocation of water resources was developed for a multiaquifer groundwater and surface water system near Livermore, California. The complex groundwater system was analyzed using a transient, quasi-three-dimensional model that considers the nonlinear behavior of the unconfined aquifer. The surface water system consists of a reservoir that discharges water to three streams which in turn recharge the upper aquifer. Nonlinear streamflow-recharge relationships were developed based upon synoptic field measurements of streamflow. The management model uses constrained optimization to minimize the cost of allocating surface water subject to physical and economic restrictions. Results indicate that a combined hydrologic and economic management model can be used to evaluate management practices of a complex hydrogeologic system. Questions can be posed which either would be impossible or extremely difficult to solve without the management model. We demonstrate the utility of such a model in three areas. First, the efficiency of intra-basin water allocations is evaluated. Second, critical factors that control management decisions of the basin are identified. Third, the influence of economic incentives that can best satisfy the conflicting objectives of various water users is explored.

Payments for Ecosystem Services for watershed water resource allocations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Yicheng; Zhang, Jian; Zhang, Chunling; Zang, Wenbin; Guo, Wenxian; Qian, Zhan; Liu, Laisheng; Zhao, Jinyong; Feng, Jian

2018-01-01

Watershed water resource allocation focuses on concrete aspects of the sustainable management of Ecosystem Services (ES) that are related to water and examines the possibility of implementing Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) for water ES. PES can be executed to satisfy both economic and environmental objectives and demands. Considering the importance of calculating PES schemes at the social equity and cooperative game (CG) levels, to quantitatively solve multi-objective problems, a water resources allocation model and multi-objective optimization are provided. The model consists of three modules that address the following processes: ① social equity mechanisms used to study water consumer associations, ② an optimal decision-making process based on variable intervals and CG theory, and ③ the use of Shapley values of CGs for profit maximization. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology for realizing sustainable development was examined. First, an optimization model with water allocation objective was developed based on sustainable water resources allocation framework that maximizes the net benefit of water use. Then, to meet water quality requirements, PES cost was estimated using trade-off curves among different pollution emission concentration permissions. Finally, to achieve equity and supply sufficient incentives for water resources protection, CG theory approaches were utilized to reallocate PES benefits. The potential of the developed model was examined by its application to a case study in the Yongding River watershed of China. Approximately 128 Mm3 of water flowed from the upper reach (Shanxi and Hebei Provinces) sections of the Yongding River to the lower reach (Beijing) in 2013. According to the calculated results, Beijing should pay USD6.31 M (¥39.03 M) for water-related ES to Shanxi and Hebei Provinces. The results reveal that the proposed methodology is an available tool that can be used for sustainable development with resolving PES amounts among different regions under social and environmental constraints by considering the characteristics of social equity and CGs.

Artificial intelligent techniques for optimizing water allocation in a reservoir watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Wang, Yu-Chung

2014-05-01

This study proposes a systematical water allocation scheme that integrates system analysis with artificial intelligence techniques for reservoir operation in consideration of the great uncertainty upon hydrometeorology for mitigating droughts impacts on public and irrigation sectors. The AI techniques mainly include a genetic algorithm and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). We first derive evaluation diagrams through systematic interactive evaluations on long-term hydrological data to provide a clear simulation perspective of all possible drought conditions tagged with their corresponding water shortages; then search the optimal reservoir operating histogram using genetic algorithm (GA) based on given demands and hydrological conditions that can be recognized as the optimal base of input-output training patterns for modelling; and finally build a suitable water allocation scheme through constructing an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with a learning of the mechanism between designed inputs (water discount rates and hydrological conditions) and outputs (two scenarios: simulated and optimized water deficiency levels). The effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan for the first paddy crop in the study area to assess the water allocation mechanism during drought periods. We demonstrate that the proposed water allocation scheme significantly and substantially avails water managers of reliably determining a suitable discount rate on water supply for both irrigation and public sectors, and thus can reduce the drought risk and the compensation amount induced by making restrictions on agricultural use water.

Climate change effects on water allocations with season dependent water rights.

PubMed

Null, Sarah E; Prudencio, Liana

2016-11-15

Appropriative water rights allocate surface water to competing users based on seniority. Often water rights vary seasonally with spring runoff, irrigation schedules, or other non-uniform supply and demand. Downscaled monthly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model, multi-emissions scenario hydroclimate data evaluate water allocation reliability and variability with anticipated hydroclimate change. California's Tuolumne watershed is a study basin, chosen because water rights are well-defined, simple, and include competing environmental, agricultural, and urban water uses representative of most basins. We assume that dedicated environmental flows receive first priority when mandated by federal law like the Endangered Species Act or hydropower relicensing, followed by senior agricultural water rights, and finally junior urban water rights. Environmental flows vary by water year and include April pulse flows, and senior agricultural water rights are 68% larger during historical spring runoff from April through June. Results show that senior water right holders receive the largest climate-driven reductions in allocated water when peak streamflow shifts from snowmelt-dominated spring runoff to mixed snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated winter runoff. Junior water right holders have higher uncertainty from inter-annual variability. These findings challenge conventional wisdom that water shortages are absorbed by junior water users and suggest that aquatic ecosystems may be disproportionally impaired by hydroclimate change, even when environmental flows receive priority. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.; Cook, Edward

2017-03-01

Streamflow forecasts at multiple time scales provide a new opportunity for reservoir management to address competing objectives. Market instruments such as forward contracts with specified reliability are considered as a tool that may help address the perceived risk associated with the use of such forecasts in lieu of traditional operation and allocation strategies. A water allocation process that enables multiple contracts for water supply and hydropower production with different durations, while maintaining a prescribed level of flood risk reduction, is presented. The allocation process is supported by an optimization model that considers multitime scale ensemble forecasts of monthly streamflow and flood volume over the upcoming season and year, the desired reliability and pricing of proposed contracts for hydropower and water supply. It solves for the size of contracts at each reliability level that can be allocated for each future period, while meeting target end of period reservoir storage with a prescribed reliability. The contracts may be insurable, given that their reliability is verified through retrospective modeling. The process can allow reservoir operators to overcome their concerns as to the appropriate skill of probabilistic forecasts, while providing water users with short-term and long-term guarantees as to how much water or energy they may be allocated. An application of the optimization model to the Bhakra Dam, India, provides an illustration of the process. The issues of forecast skill and contract performance are examined. A field engagement of the idea is useful to develop a real-world perspective and needs a suitable institutional environment.

A framework model for water-sharing among co-basin states of a river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, N. K.; Azad, Shambhu

2018-05-01

A new framework model is presented in this study for sharing of water in a river basin using certain governing variables, in an effort to enhance the objectivity for a reasonable and equitable allocation of water among co-basin states. The governing variables were normalised to reduce the governing variables of different co-basin states of a river basin on same scale. In the absence of objective methods for evaluating the weights to be assigned to co-basin states for water allocation, a framework was conceptualised and formulated to determine the normalised weighting factors of different co-basin states as a function of the governing variables. The water allocation to any co-basin state had been assumed to be proportional to its struggle for equity, which in turn was assumed to be a function of the normalised discontent, satisfaction, and weighting factors of each co-basin state. System dynamics was used effectively to represent and solve the proposed model formulation. The proposed model was successfully applied to the Vamsadhara river basin located in the South-Eastern part of India, and a sensitivity analysis of the proposed model parameters was carried out to prove its robustness in terms of the proposed model convergence and validity over the broad spectrum values of the proposed model parameters. The solution converged quickly to a final allocation of 1444 million cubic metre (MCM) in the case of the Odisha co-basin state, and to 1067 MCM for the Andhra Pradesh co-basin state. The sensitivity analysis showed that the proposed model's allocation varied from 1584 MCM to 1336 MCM for Odisha state and from 927 to 1175 MCM for Andhra, depending upon the importance weights given to the governing variables for the calculation of the weighting factors. Thus, the proposed model was found to be very flexible to explore various policy options to arrive at a decision in a water sharing problem. It can therefore be effectively applied to any trans-boundary problem where there is conflict about water-sharing among co-basin states.

Optimal allocation of land and water resources to achieve Water, Energy and Food Security in the upper Blue Nile basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allam, M.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

Rapid population growth, hunger problems, increasing energy demands, persistent conflicts between the Nile basin riparian countries and the potential impacts of climate change highlight the urgent need for the conscious stewardship of the upper Blue Nile (UBN) basin resources. This study develops a framework for the optimal allocation of land and water resources to agriculture and hydropower production in the UBN basin. The framework consists of three optimization models that aim to: (a) provide accurate estimates of the basin water budget, (b) allocate land and water resources optimally to agriculture, and (c) allocate water to agriculture and hydropower production, and investigate trade-offs between them. First, a data assimilation procedure for data-scarce basins is proposed to deal with data limitations and produce estimates of the hydrologic components that are consistent with the principles of mass and energy conservation. Second, the most representative topography and soil properties datasets are objectively identified and used to delineate the agricultural potential in the basin. The agricultural potential is incorporated into a land-water allocation model that maximizes the net economic benefits from rain-fed agriculture while allowing for enhancing the soils from one suitability class to another to increase agricultural productivity in return for an investment in soil inputs. The optimal agricultural expansion is expected to reduce the basin flow by 7.6 cubic kilometres, impacting downstream countries. The optimization framework is expanded to include hydropower production. This study finds that allocating water to grow rain-fed teff in the basin is more profitable than allocating water for hydropower production. Optimal operation rules for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam (GERD) are identified to maximize annual hydropower generation while achieving a relatively uniform monthly production rate. Trade-offs between agricultural expansion and hydropower generation are analysed in an attempt to define cooperation scenarios that would achieve win-win outcomes for all riparian countries.

Developing new scenarios for water allocation negotiations: a case study of the Euphrates River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarkeh, Mohammad Reza; Mianabadi, Ameneh; Mianabadi, Hojjat

2016-10-01

Mismanagement and uneven distribution of water may lead to or increase conflict among countries. Allocation of water among trans-boundary river neighbours is a key issue in utilization of shared water resources. The bankruptcy theory is a cooperative Game Theory method which is used when the amount of demand of riparian states is larger than total available water. In this study, we survey the application of seven methods of Classical Bankruptcy Rules (CBRs) including Proportional (CBR-PRO), Adjusted Proportional (CBR-AP), Constrained Equal Awards (CBR-CEA), Constrained Equal Losses (CBR-CEL), Piniles (CBR-Piniles), Minimal Overlap (CBR-MO), Talmud (CBR-Talmud) and four Sequential Sharing Rules (SSRs) including Proportional (SSR-PRO), Constrained Equal Awards (SSR-CEA), Constrained Equal Losses (SSR-CEL) and Talmud (SSR-Talmud) methods in allocation of the Euphrates River among three riparian countries: Turkey, Syria and Iraq. However, there is not a certain documented method to find more equitable allocation rule. Therefore, in this paper, a new method is established for choosing the most appropriate allocating rule which seems to be more equitable than other allocation rules to satisfy the stakeholders. The results reveal that, based on the new propose model, the CBR-AP seems to be more equitable to allocate the Euphrates River water among Turkey, Syria and Iraq.

Dynamic equilibrium strategy for drought emergency temporary water transfer and allocation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Ma, Ning; Lv, Chengwei

2016-08-01

Efficient water transfer and allocation are critical for disaster mitigation in drought emergencies. This is especially important when the different interests of the multiple decision makers and the fluctuating water resource supply and demand simultaneously cause space and time conflicts. To achieve more effective and efficient water transfers and allocations, this paper proposes a novel optimization method with an integrated bi-level structure and a dynamic strategy, in which the bi-level structure works to deal with space dimension conflicts in drought emergencies, and the dynamic strategy is used to deal with time dimension conflicts. Combining these two optimization methods, however, makes calculation complex, so an integrated interactive fuzzy program and a PSO-POA are combined to develop a hybrid-heuristic algorithm. The successful application of the proposed model in a real world case region demonstrates its practicality and efficiency. Dynamic cooperation between multiple reservoirs under the coordination of a global regulator reflects the model's efficiency and effectiveness in drought emergency water transfer and allocation, especially in a fluctuating environment. On this basis, some corresponding management recommendations are proposed to improve practical operations.

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2013-02-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over a large scale, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed over the recent decades. However, few models consider the feedback between water availability and water demand, and even fewer models explicitly incorporate water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we integrate a global water demand model into a global water balance model, and simulate water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, considering water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources and explicitly taking into account feedbacks between supply and demand, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We implement an irrigation water scheme, which works dynamically with daily surface and soil water balance, and include a newly available extensive reservoir data set. Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawal show generally good agreement with available reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, but groundwater use has been increasing more rapidly than surface water use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. The alteration is particularly large over the heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

River water quality management considering agricultural return flows: application of a nonlinear two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming.

PubMed

Tavakoli, Ali; Nikoo, Mohammad Reza; Kerachian, Reza; Soltani, Maryam

2015-04-01

In this paper, a new fuzzy methodology is developed to optimize water and waste load allocation (WWLA) in rivers under uncertainty. An interactive two-stage stochastic fuzzy programming (ITSFP) method is utilized to handle parameter uncertainties, which are expressed as fuzzy boundary intervals. An iterative linear programming (ILP) is also used for solving the nonlinear optimization model. To accurately consider the impacts of the water and waste load allocation strategies on the river water quality, a calibrated QUAL2Kw model is linked with the WWLA optimization model. The soil, water, atmosphere, and plant (SWAP) simulation model is utilized to determine the quantity and quality of each agricultural return flow. To control pollution loads of agricultural networks, it is assumed that a part of each agricultural return flow can be diverted to an evaporation pond and also another part of it can be stored in a detention pond. In detention ponds, contaminated water is exposed to solar radiation for disinfecting pathogens. Results of applying the proposed methodology to the Dez River system in the southwestern region of Iran illustrate its effectiveness and applicability for water and waste load allocation in rivers. In the planning phase, this methodology can be used for estimating the capacities of return flow diversion system and evaporation and detention ponds.

Simulating Water Resource Disputes of Transboundary River: A Case Study of the Zhanghe River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Liang; He, Weijun; Liao, Zaiyi; Mulugeta Degefu, Dagmawi; An, Min; Zhang, Zhaofang

2018-01-01

Water resource disputes within transboundary river basin has been hindering the sustainable use of water resources and efficient management of environment. The problem is characterized by a complex information feedback loop that involves socio-economic and environmental systems. This paper presents a system dynamics based model that can simulate the dynamics of water demand, water supply, water adequacy and water allocation instability within a river basin. It was used for a case study in the Zhanghe River basin of China. The base scenario has been investigated for the time period between 2000 and 2050. The result shows that the Chinese national government should change the water allocation scheme of downstream Zhanghe River established in 1989, more water need to be allocated to the downstream cities and the actual allocation should be adjusted to reflect the need associated with the socio-economic and environmental changes within the region, and system dynamics improves the understanding of concepts and system interactions by offering a comprehensive and integrated view of the physical, social, economic, environmental, and political systems.

Water exchanges versus water works: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model for the Balearic Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, Carlos M.; Tirado, Dolores; Rey-Maquieira, Javier

2004-10-01

We present a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for the Balearic Islands, specifically performed to analyze the welfare gains associated with an improvement in the allocation of water rights through voluntary water exchanges (mainly between the agriculture and urban sectors). For the implementation of the empirical model we built the social accounting matrix (SAM) from the last available input-output table of the islands (for the year 1997). Water exchanges provide an important alternative to make the allocation of water flexible enough to cope with the cyclical droughts that characterize the natural water regime on the islands. The main conclusion is that the increased efficiency provided by ``water markets'' makes this option more advantageous than the popular alternative of building new desalinization plants. Contrary to common opinion, a ``water market'' can also have positive and significant impacts on the agricultural income.

Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

Exploring the Influence of Smallholders' Perceptions Regarding Water Availability on Crop Choice and Water Allocation Through Socio-Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuil, L.; Evans, T.; McCord, P. F.; Salinas, J. L.; Blöschl, G.

2018-04-01

While it is known that farmers adopt different decision-making behaviors to cope with stresses, it remains challenging to capture this diversity in formal model frameworks that are used to advance theory and inform policy. Guided by cognitive theory and the theory of bounded rationality, this research develops a novel, socio-hydrological model framework that can explore how a farmer's perception of water availability impacts crop choice and water allocation. The model is informed by a rich empirical data set at the household level collected during 2013 in Kenya's Upper Ewaso Ng'iro basin that shows that the crop type cultivated is correlated with water availability. The model is able to simulate this pattern and shows that near-optimal or "satisficing" crop patterns can emerge also when farmers were to make use of simple decision rules and have diverse perceptions on water availability. By focusing on farmer decision making it also captures the rebound effect, i.e., as additional water becomes available through the improvement of crop efficiencies it will be reallocated on the farm instead of flowing downstream, as a farmer will adjust his (her) water allocation and crop pattern to the new water conditions. This study is valuable as it is consistent with the theory of bounded rationality, and thus offers an alternative, descriptive model in addition to normative models. The framework can be used to understand the potential impact of climate change on the socio-hydrological system, to simulate and test various assumptions regarding farmer behavior and to evaluate policy interventions.

Studying the effect on system preference by varying coproduct allocation in creating life-cycle inventory.

PubMed

Curran, Mary Ann

2007-10-15

How one models the input and output data for a life-cycle assessment (LCA) can greatly affect the results. Although much attention has been paid to allocation methodology by researchers in the field, specific guidance is still lacking: Earlier research focused on the effects of applying various allocation schemes to industrial processes when creating life-cycle inventories. To determine the impact of different allocation approaches upon product choice, this study evaluated the gas- and water-phase emissions during the production, distribution, and use of three hypothetical fuel systems (data that represent conventional gasoline and gasoline with 8.7 and 85% ethanol were used as the basis for modeling). This paper presents an explanation of the allocation issue and the results from testing various allocation schemes (weight, volume, market value, energy, and demand-based) when viewed across the entire system. Impact indicators for global warming, ozone depletion, and human health noncancer (water impact) were lower for the ethanol-containing fuels, while impact indicators for acidification, ecotoxicity, eutrophication, human health criteria, and photochemical smog were lower for conventional gasoline (impacts for the water-related human health cancer category showed mixed results). The relative ranking of conventional gasoline in relation to the ethanol-containing fuels was consistent in all instances, suggesting that, in this case study, the choice of allocation methodology had no impact on indicating which fuel has lower environmental impacts.

A review of distributed parameter groundwater management modeling methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorelick, Steven M.

1983-01-01

Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

A Review of Distributed Parameter Groundwater Management Modeling Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorelick, Steven M.

1983-04-01

Models which solve the governing groundwater flow or solute transport equations in conjunction with optimization techniques, such as linear and quadratic programing, are powerful aquifer management tools. Groundwater management models fall in two general categories: hydraulics or policy evaluation and water allocation. Groundwater hydraulic management models enable the determination of optimal locations and pumping rates of numerous wells under a variety of restrictions placed upon local drawdown, hydraulic gradients, and water production targets. Groundwater policy evaluation and allocation models can be used to study the influence upon regional groundwater use of institutional policies such as taxes and quotas. Furthermore, fairly complex groundwater-surface water allocation problems can be handled using system decomposition and multilevel optimization. Experience from the few real world applications of groundwater optimization-management techniques is summarized. Classified separately are methods for groundwater quality management aimed at optimal waste disposal in the subsurface. This classification is composed of steady state and transient management models that determine disposal patterns in such a way that water quality is protected at supply locations. Classes of research missing from the literature are groundwater quality management models involving nonlinear constraints, models which join groundwater hydraulic and quality simulations with political-economic management considerations, and management models that include parameter uncertainty.

Optimization model for the allocation of water resources based on the maximization of employment in the agriculture and industry sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi Davijani, M.; Banihabib, M. E.; Nadjafzadeh Anvar, A.; Hashemi, S. R.

2016-02-01

In many discussions, work force is mentioned as the most important factor of production. Principally, work force is a factor which can compensate for the physical and material limitations and shortcomings of other factors to a large extent which can help increase the production level. On the other hand, employment is considered as an effective factor in social issues. The goal of the present research is the allocation of water resources so as to maximize the number of jobs created in the industry and agriculture sectors. An objective that has attracted the attention of policy makers involved in water supply and distribution is the maximization of the interests of beneficiaries and consumers in case of certain policies adopted. The present model applies the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm in order to determine the optimum amount of water allocated to each water-demanding sector, area under cultivation, agricultural production, employment in the agriculture sector, industrial production and employment in the industry sector. Based on the results obtained from this research, by optimally allocating water resources in the central desert region of Iran, 1096 jobs can be created in the industry and agriculture sectors, which constitutes an improvement of about 13% relative to the previous situation (non-optimal water utilization). It is also worth mentioning that by optimizing the employment factor as a social parameter, the other areas such as the economic sector are influenced as well. For example, in this investigation, the resulting economic benefits (incomes) have improved from 73 billion Rials at baseline employment figures to 112 billion Rials in the case of optimized employment condition. Therefore, it is necessary to change the inter-sector and intra-sector water allocation models in this region, because this change not only leads to more jobs in this area, but also causes an improvement in the region's economic conditions.

Impact assessments of water allocation on water environment of river network: Method and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qinggai; Wang, Yaping; Lu, Xuchuan; Jia, Peng; Zhang, Beibei; Li, Chen; Li, Sa; Li, Shibei

2018-02-01

Two types of water allocation scenarios were proposed for reasonably utilizing water resources and improving water quality in a two-river network in Tongzhou District. Water circulation and quality were selected as two important indexes to evaluate the two scenario. Meanwhile, one-dimensional water amount and quality model was set up on the basis of the MIKE11 model to compare the two scenarios in terms of improving water environment. The results showed that both scenarios changed the hydrodynamic conditions, and consequently the river flow reached 0.05 m/s or higher in the central part of river stream. In addition, we also found that the two plans have similar effects on water quality, with first scenario producing larger area of water class III and IV than the second scenario.

Dynamic versus static allocation policies in multipurpose multireservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmant, A.; Goor, Q.; Pinte, D.; van der Zaag, P.

2007-12-01

As the competition for water is likely to increase in the near future due to socioeconomic development and population growth, water resources managers will face hard choices when allocating water between competing users. Because water is a vital resource used in multiple sectors, including the environment, the allocation is inherently a political and social process, which is likely to become increasingly scrutinized as the competition grows between the different sectors. Since markets are usually absent or ineffective, the allocation of water between competing demands is achieved administratively taking into account key objectives such as economic efficiency, equity and maintaining the ecological integrity. When crop irrigation is involved, water is usually allocated by a system of annual rights to use a fixed, static, volume of water. In a fully-allocated basin, moving from a static to a dynamic allocation process, whereby the policies are regularly updated according to the hydrologic status of the river basin, is the first step towards the development of river basin management strategies that increase the productivity of water. More specifically, in a multipurpose multireservoir system, continuously adjusting release and withdrawal decisions based on the latest hydrologic information will increase the benefits derived from the system. However, the extent to which such an adjustment can be achieved results from complex spatial and temporal interactions between the physical characteristics of the water resources system (storage, natural flows), the economic and social consequences of rationing and the impacts on natural ecosystems. The complexity of the decision-making process, which requires the continuous evaluation of numerous trade-offs, calls for the use of integrated hydrologic-economic models. This paper compares static and dynamic management approaches for a cascade of hydropower-irrigation reservoirs using stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) formulations. As its name indicates, SDDP is an extension of SDP that removes the curse of dimensionality found in discrete SDP and can therefore be used to analyze large-scale water resources systems. For the static approach, the multiobjective (irrigation-hydropower) optimization problem is solved using the constraint method, i.e. net benefits from hydropower generation are maximized and irrigation water withdrawals are additional constraints. In the dynamic approach, the SDDP model seeks to maximize the net benefits of both hydropower and irrigation crop production. A cascade of 8 reservoirs in the Turkish and Syrian parts of the Euphrates river basin is used as a case study.

Modeling Hydrological Processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico Border Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samimi, M.; Jahan, N. T.; Mirchi, A.

2017-12-01

Efficient allocation of limited water resources to competing use sectors is becoming increasingly critical for water-scarce regions. Understanding natural and anthropogenic processes affecting hydrological processes is key for efficient water management. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model governing hydrologic processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico border region. Our study area includes the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID), which manages water resources to support irrigated agriculture. The region is facing water resources challenges associated with chronic water scarcity, over-allocation, diminishing water supply, and growing water demand. Agricultural activities rely on conjunctive use of Rio Grande River water supply and groundwater withdrawal. The model is calibrated and validated under baseline conditions in the arid and semi-arid climate in order to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and regional water availability. We highlight the importance of calibrating the crop growth parameters, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge to provide a realistic representation of the hydrological processes and water availability in the region. Furthermore, limitations of the model and its utility to inform stakeholders will be discussed.

Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

2013-04-01

Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such functionality is not typically included in other water DSS. Based on the resulting water resources allocation, the model calculates operating and water scarcity costs caused by supply deficits based on economic demand functions for each demand node. The optimization model allocates the available resource over time based on economic criteria (net benefits from demand curves and cost functions), minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. This approach provides solutions that optimize the economic efficiency (as total net benefit) in water resources management over the optimization period. Both models must be used together in water resource planning and management. The optimization model provides an initial insight on economically efficient solutions, from which different operating rules can be further developed and tested using the simulation model. The hydro-economic simulation model allows assessing economic impacts of alternative policies or operating criteria, avoiding the perfect foresight issues associated with the optimization. The tools have been applied to the Jucar river basin (Spain) in order to assess the economic results corresponding to the current modus operandi of the system and compare them with the solution from the optimization that maximizes economic efficiency. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536) and the Plan Nacional I+D+I 2008-2011 of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and CGL2009-13238-C02-02).

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems using an agent-based modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, J.; Cai, X.; Wang, Z.

2009-12-01

It also has been well recognized that market-based systems can have significant advantages over administered systems for water allocation. However there are not many successful water markets around the world yet and administered systems exist commonly in water allocation management practice. This paradox has been under discussion for decades and still calls for attention for both research and practice. This paper explores some insights for the paradox and tries to address why market systems have not been widely implemented for water allocation. Adopting the theory of agent-based system we develop a consistent analytical model to interpret both systems. First we derive some theorems based on the analytical model, with respect to the necessary conditions for economic efficiency of water allocation. Following that the agent-based model is used to illustrate the coherence and difference between administered and market-based systems. The two systems are compared from three aspects: 1) the driving forces acting on the system state, 2) system efficiency, and 3) equity. Regarding economic efficiency, penalty on the violation of water use permits (or rights) under an administered system can lead to system-wide economic efficiency, as well as being acceptable by some agents, which follows the theory of the so-call rational violation. Ideal equity will be realized if penalty equals incentive with an administered system and if transaction costs are zero with a market system. The performances of both agents and the over system are explained with an administered system and market system, respectively. The performances of agents are subject to different mechanisms of interactions between agents under the two systems. The system emergency (i.e., system benefit, equilibrium market price, etc), resulting from the performance at the agent level, reflects the different mechanism of the two systems, the “invisible hand” with the market system and administrative measures (penalty and subsidy) with the administered system. Furthermore, the impact of hydrological uncertainty on the performance of water users under the two systems is analyzed by extending the deterministic model to a stochastic one subject to the uncertainty of water availability. It is found that the system response to hydrologic uncertainty depends on risk management mechanics - sharing risk equally among the agents or by prescribed priorities on some agents. Figure1. Agent formulation and its implications in administered system and market-based system

Water allocation for agriculture in southwestern Iran using a programming model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shahsavari, Zahra

2015-09-01

Water pricing can play a major role in improving water allocation, encouraging users to conserve scarce water resources, and promoting improvements in productivity. In this study, the economic values of water in farms under Dorodzan Dam in southwestern Iran were calculated using linear programming models. The method was applied to three samples of farms that drew irrigation water from a canal, a well, and both a well and a canal. The results of this study revealed that the shadow prices of water in farms varied based on the water sources and time of year. Additionally, the estimated price for water is obviously higher than the price that farmers currently pay for water in the study area. Due to the different economic values of water calculated for different months, it is recommended that the price of irrigation water be adjusted accordingly during various seasons in a fashion similar to that of electrical energy.

Marrying Hydrological Modelling and Integrated Assessment for the needs of Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croke, B. F. W.; Blakers, R. S.; El Sawah, S.; Fu, B.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Kelly, R. A.; Patrick, M. J.; Ross, A.; Ticehurst, J.; Barthel, R.; Jakeman, A. J.

2014-09-01

This paper discusses the integration of hydrology with other disciplines using an Integrated Assessment (IA) and modelling approach to the management and allocation of water resources. Recent developments in the field of socio-hydrology aim to develop stronger relationships between hydrology and the human dimensions of Water Resource Management (WRM). This should build on an existing wealth of knowledge and experience of coupled human-water systems. To further strengthen this relationship and contribute to this broad body of knowledge, we propose a strong and durable "marriage" between IA and hydrology. The foundation of this marriage requires engagement with appropriate concepts, model structures, scales of analyses, performance evaluation and communication - and the associated tools and models that are needed for pragmatic deployment or operation. To gain insight into how this can be achieved, an IA case study in water allocation in the Lower Namoi catchment, NSW, Australia is presented.

Establishing politically feasible water markets: a multi-criteria approach.

PubMed

Ballestero, Enrique; Alarcón, Silverio; García-Bernabeu, Ana

2002-08-01

A multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model to simulate the establishment of water markets is developed. The environment is an irrigated area governed by a non-profit agency, which is responsible for water production, allocation, and pricing. There is a traditional situation of historical rights, average-cost pricing for water allocation, large quantities of water used, and inefficiency. A market-oriented policy could be implemented by accounting for ecological and political objectives such as saving groundwater and safeguarding historical rights while promoting economic efficiency. In this paper, a problem is solved by compromise programming, a multi-criteria technique based on the principles of Simonian logic. The model is theoretically developed and applied to the Lorca region in Spain near the Mediterranean Sea.

Drought allocations using the Systems Impact Assessment Model: Klamath River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Campbell, S.G.

2005-01-01

Water supply and allocation scenarios for the Klamath River, Ore. and Calif., were evaluated using the Systems Impact Assessment Model (SIAM), a decision support system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. SIAM is a set of models with a graphical user interface that simulates water supply and delivery in a managed river system, water quality, and fish production. Simulation results are presented for drought conditions, one aspect of Klamath River water operations. The Klamath River Basin has experienced critically dry conditions in 1992, 1994, and 2001. Drought simulations are useful to estimate the impacts of specific legal or institutional flow constraints. In addition, simulations help to identify potential adverse water quality consequences including evaluating the potential for reducing adverse temperature impacts on anadromous fish. In all drought simulations, water supply was insufficient to fully meet upstream and downstream targets for endangered species.

Optimum Allocation of Water to the Cultivation Farms Using Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeidian, B.; Saadi Mesgari, M.; Ghodousi, M.

2015-12-01

The water scarcity crises in the world and specifically in Iran, requires the proper management of this valuable resource. According to the official reports, around 90 percent of the water in Iran is used for agriculture. Therefore, the adequate management and usage of water in this section can help significantly to overcome the above crises. The most important aspect of agricultural water management is related to the irrigation planning, which is basically an allocation problem. The proper allocation of water to the farms is not a simple and trivial problem, because of the limited amount of available water, the effect of different parameters, nonlinear characteristics of the objective function, and the wideness of the solution space. Usually To solve such complex problems, a meta-heuristic method such as genetic algorithm could be a good candidate. In this paper, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used for the allocation of different amount of water to a number of farms. In this model, the amount of water transferable using canals of level one, in one period of irrigation is specified. In addition, the amount of water required by each farm is calculated using crop type, stage of crop development, and other parameters. Using these, the water production function of each farm is determined. Then, using the water production function, farm areas, and the revenue and cost of each crop type, the objective function is calculated. This objective function is used by GA for the allocation of water to the farms. The objective function is defined such that the economical profit extracted from all farms is maximized. Moreover, the limitation related to the amount of available water is considered as a constraint. In general, the total amount of allocated water should be less than the finally available water (the water transferred trough the level one canals). Because of the intensive scarcity of water, the deficit irrigation method are considered. In this method, the planning is on the basis of the optimum and limited allocation of water, and not on the basis of the each crop water requirement. According to the available literature, in the condition of water scarcity, the implementation of deficit irrigation strategy results in higher economical income. The main difference of this research with others is the allocation of water to the farms. Whilst, most of similar researches concentrate on the allocation of water to different water consumption sections (such as agriculture, industry etc.), networks and crops. Using the GA for the optimization of the water allocation, proper solutions were generated that maximize the total economical income in the entire study area. In addition, although the search space was considerably wide, the results of the implementation showed an adequate convergence speed. The repeatability test of the algorithm also proved that the algorithm is reasonably stable. In general the usage of GA algorithm can be considered as an efficient and trustable method for such irrigation planning problems. By optimum allocation of the water to the farms with different areas and crop types, and considering the deficit irrigation method, the general income of the entire area can be improved substantially.

Where does the carbon go? A model–data intercomparison of vegetation carbon allocation and turnover processes at two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment sites

PubMed Central

De Kauwe, Martin G; Medlyn, Belinda E; Zaehle, Sönke; Walker, Anthony P; Dietze, Michael C; Wang, Ying-Ping; Luo, Yiqi; Jain, Atul K; El-Masri, Bassil; Hickler, Thomas; Wårlind, David; Weng, Ensheng; Parton, William J; Thornton, Peter E; Wang, Shusen; Prentice, I Colin; Asao, Shinichi; Smith, Benjamin; McCarthy, Heather R; Iversen, Colleen M; Hanson, Paul J; Warren, Jeffrey M; Oren, Ram; Norby, Richard J

2014-01-01

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has the potential to increase vegetation carbon storage if increased net primary production causes increased long-lived biomass. Model predictions of eCO2 effects on vegetation carbon storage depend on how allocation and turnover processes are represented. We used data from two temperate forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments to evaluate representations of allocation and turnover in 11 ecosystem models. Observed eCO2 effects on allocation were dynamic. Allocation schemes based on functional relationships among biomass fractions that vary with resource availability were best able to capture the general features of the observations. Allocation schemes based on constant fractions or resource limitations performed less well, with some models having unintended outcomes. Few models represent turnover processes mechanistically and there was wide variation in predictions of tissue lifespan. Consequently, models did not perform well at predicting eCO2 effects on vegetation carbon storage. Our recommendations to reduce uncertainty include: use of allocation schemes constrained by biomass fractions; careful testing of allocation schemes; and synthesis of allocation and turnover data in terms of model parameters. Data from intensively studied ecosystem manipulation experiments are invaluable for constraining models and we recommend that such experiments should attempt to fully quantify carbon, water and nutrient budgets. PMID:24844873

Integrating a distributed hydrological model and SEEA-Water for improving water account and water allocation management under a climate change context.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jauch, Eduardo; Almeida, Carina; Simionesei, Lucian; Ramos, Tiago; Neves, Ramiro

2015-04-01

The crescent demand and situations of water scarcity and droughts are a difficult problem to solve by water managers, with big repercussions in the entire society. The complexity of this question is increased by trans-boundary river issues and the environmental impacts of the usual adopted solutions to store water, like reservoirs. To be able to answer to the society requirements regarding water allocation in a sustainable way, the managers must have a complete and clear picture of the present situation, as well as being able to understand the changes in the water dynamics both in the short and long time period. One of the available tools for the managers is the System of Environmental-Economic Accounts for Water (SEEA-Water), a subsystem of SEEA with focus on water accounts, developed by the United Nations Statistical Division (UNSD) in collaboration with the London Group on Environmental Accounting, This system provides, between other things, with a set of tables and accounts for water and water related emissions, organizing statistical data making possible the derivation of indicators that can be used to assess the relations between economy and environment. One of the main issues with the SEEA-Water framework seems to be the requirement of large amounts of data, including field measurements of water availability in rivers/lakes/reservoirs, soil and groundwater, as also precipitation, irrigation and other water sources and uses. While this is an incentive to collecting and using data, it diminishes the usefulness of the system on countries where this data is not yet available or is incomplete, as it can lead to a poor understanding of the water availability and uses. Distributed hydrological models can be used to fill missing data required by the SEEA-Water framework. They also make it easier to assess different scenarios (usually soil use, water demand and climate changes) for a better planning of water allocation. In the context of the DURERO project (www.durero.eu), the hydrological model MOHID LAND (www.mohid.com) was used to model the Douro river basin providing information to the SEEA-Water system for the Portuguese side of the basin. The model was also used to model the Tâmega river watershed, a sub-basin of the Douro basin, with different climate change scenarios, using the results to build the SEEA-Water accounts for this pilot river basin. The aim of the present work was to understand the potential of the integration of a distributed hydrological model with the SEEA-Water framework and how this can help improving water allocation management and water account under a climate change context.

Model-experiment synthesis at two FACE sites in the southeastern US. Forest ecosystem responses to elevated CO[2]. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, A. P.; Zaehle, S.; De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B. E.; Dietze, M.; Hickler, T.; Iversen, C. M.; Jain, A. K.; Luo, Y.; McCarthy, H. R.; Parton, W. J.; Prentice, C.; Thornton, P. E.; Wang, S.; Wang, Y.; Warlind, D.; Warren, J.; Weng, E.; Hanson, P. J.; Oren, R.; Norby, R. J.

2013-12-01

Ecosystem observations from two long-term Free-Air CO[2] Enrichment (FACE) experiments (Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest) were used to evaluate the assumptions of 11 terrestrial ecosystem models and the consequences of those assumptions for the responses of ecosystem water, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fluxes to elevated CO[2] (eCO[2]). Nitrogen dynamics were the main constraint on simulated productivity responses to eCO[2]. At Oak Ridge some models reproduced the declining response of C and N fluxes, while at Duke none of the models were able to maintain the observed sustained responses. C and N cycles are coupled through a number of complex interactions, which causes uncertainty in model simulations in multiple ways. Nonetheless, the major difference between models and experiments was a larger than observed increase in N-use efficiency and lower than observed response of N uptake. The results indicate that at Duke there were mechanisms by which trees accessed additional N in response to eCO[2] that were not represented in the ecosystem models, and which did not operate with the same efficiency at Oak Ridge. Sequestration of the additional productivity under eCO[2] into forest biomass depended largely on C allocation. Allocation assumptions were classified into three main categories--fixed partitioning coefficients, functional relationships and a partial (leaf allocation only) optimisation. The assumption which best constrained model results was a functional relationship between leaf area and sapwood area (pipe-model) and increased root allocation when nitrogen or water were limiting. Both, productivity and allocation responses to eCO[2] determined the ecosystem-level response of LAI, which together with the response of stomatal conductance (and hence water-use efficiency; WUE) determined the ecosystem response of transpiration. Differences in the WUE response across models were related to the representation of the relationship of stomatal conductance to CO[2] and the relative importance of the combined boundary and aerodynamic resistances in the total resistance to leaf-atmosphere water transport.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

A hybrid system dynamics and optimization approach for supporting sustainable water resources planning in Zhengzhou City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhi; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan; Peng, Cong; Cai, Yanpeng; Huang, Weichen

2018-01-01

Problems with water resources restrict the sustainable development of a city with water shortages. Based on system dynamics (SD) theory, a model of sustainable utilization of water resources using the STELLA software has been established. This model consists of four subsystems: population system, economic system, water supply system and water demand system. The boundaries of the four subsystems are vague, but they are closely related and interdependent. The model is applied to Zhengzhou City, China, which has a serious water shortage. The difference between the water supply and demand is very prominent in Zhengzhou City. The model was verified with data from 2009 to 2013. The results show that water demand of Zhengzhou City will reach 2.57 billion m3 in 2020. A water resources optimization model is developed based on interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming. The objective of the model is to allocate water resources to each water sector and make the lowest cost under the minimum water demand. Using the simulation results, decision makers can easily weigh the costs of the system, the water allocation objectives, and the system risk. The hybrid system dynamics method and optimization model is a rational try to support water resources management in many cities, particularly for cities with potential water shortage and it is solidly supported with previous studies and collected data.

Assessing the Impact of Model Parameter Uncertainty in Simulating Grass Biomass Using a Hybrid Carbon Allocation Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes, J. J.; Adam, J. C.; Tague, C.

2016-12-01

Grasslands play an important role in agricultural production as forage for livestock; they also provide a diverse set of ecosystem services including soil carbon (C) storage. The partitioning of C between above and belowground plant compartments (i.e. allocation) is influenced by both plant characteristics and environmental conditions. The objectives of this study are to 1) develop and evaluate a hybrid C allocation strategy suitable for grasslands, and 2) apply this strategy to examine the importance of various parameters related to biogeochemical cycling, photosynthesis, allocation, and soil water drainage on above and belowground biomass. We include allocation as an important process in quantifying the model parameter uncertainty, which identifies the most influential parameters and what processes may require further refinement. For this, we use the Regional Hydro-ecologic Simulation System, a mechanistic model that simulates coupled water and biogeochemical processes. A Latin hypercube sampling scheme was used to develop parameter sets for calibration and evaluation of allocation strategies, as well as parameter uncertainty analysis. We developed the hybrid allocation strategy to integrate both growth-based and resource-limited allocation mechanisms. When evaluating the new strategy simultaneously for above and belowground biomass, it produced a larger number of less biased parameter sets: 16% more compared to resource-limited and 9% more compared to growth-based. This also demonstrates its flexible application across diverse plant types and environmental conditions. We found that higher parameter importance corresponded to sub- or supra-optimal resource availability (i.e. water, nutrients) and temperature ranges (i.e. too hot or cold). For example, photosynthesis-related parameters were more important at sites warmer than the theoretical optimal growth temperature. Therefore, larger values of parameter importance indicate greater relative sensitivity in adequately representing the relevant process to capture limiting resources or manage atypical environmental conditions. These results may inform future experimental work by focusing efforts on quantifying specific parameters under various environmental conditions or across diverse plant functional types.

Optimal allocation of physical water resources integrated with virtual water trade in water scarce regions: A case study for Beijing, China.

PubMed

Ye, Quanliang; Li, Yi; Zhuo, La; Zhang, Wenlong; Xiong, Wei; Wang, Chao; Wang, Peifang

2018-02-01

This study provides an innovative application of virtual water trade in the traditional allocation of physical water resources in water scarce regions. A multi-objective optimization model was developed to optimize the allocation of physical water and virtual water resources to different water users in Beijing, China, considering the trade-offs between economic benefit and environmental impacts of water consumption. Surface water, groundwater, transferred water and reclaimed water constituted the physical resource of water supply side, while virtual water flow associated with the trade of five major crops (barley, corn, rice, soy and wheat) and three livestock products (beef, pork and poultry) in agricultural sector (calculated by the trade quantities of products and their virtual water contents). Urban (daily activities and public facilities), industry, environment and agriculture (products growing) were considered in water demand side. As for the traditional allocation of physical water resources, the results showed that agriculture and urban were the two predominant water users (accounting 54% and 28%, respectively), while groundwater and surface water satisfied around 70% water demands of different users (accounting 36% and 34%, respectively). When considered the virtual water trade of eight agricultural products in water allocation procedure, the proportion of agricultural consumption decreased to 45% in total water demand, while the groundwater consumption decreased to 24% in total water supply. Virtual water trade overturned the traditional components of water supplied from different sources for agricultural consumption, and became the largest water source in Beijing. Additionally, it was also found that environmental demand took a similar percentage of water consumption in each water source. Reclaimed water was the main water source for industrial and environmental users. The results suggest that physical water resources would mainly satisfy the consumption of urban and environment, and the unbalance between water supply and demand could be filled by virtual water import in water scarce regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An open source hydroeconomic model for California's water supply system: PyVIN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogan, M. S.; White, E.; Herman, J. D.; Hart, Q.; Merz, J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Lund, J. R.

2016-12-01

Models help operators and decision makers explore and compare different management and policy alternatives, better allocate scarce resources, and predict the future behavior of existing or proposed water systems. Hydroeconomic models are useful tools to increase benefits or decrease costs of managing water. Bringing hydrology and economics together, these models provide a framework for different disciplines that share similar objectives. This work proposes a new model to evaluate operation and adaptation strategies under existing and future hydrologic conditions for California's interconnected water system. This model combines the network structure of CALVIN, a statewide optimization model for California's water infrastructure, along with an open source solver written in the Python programming language. With the flexibilities of the model, reservoir operations, including water supply and hydropower, groundwater pumping, and the Delta water operations and requirements can now be better represented. Given time series of hydrologic inputs to the model, typical outputs include urban, agricultural and wildlife refuge water deliveries and shortage costs, conjunctive use of surface and groundwater systems, and insights into policy and management decisions, such as capacity expansion and groundwater management policies. Water market operations also represented in the model, allocating water from lower-valued users to higher-valued users. PyVIN serves as a cross-platform, extensible model to evaluate systemwide water operations. PyVIN separates data from the model structure, enabling model to be easily applied to other parts of the world where water is a scarce resource.

A Multiple-player-game Approach to Agricultural Water Use in Regions of Seasonal Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Z.

2013-12-01

In the wide distributed regions of seasonal drought, conflicts of water allocation between multiple stakeholders (which means water consumers and policy makers) are frequent and severe problems. These conflicts become extremely serious in the dry seasons, and are ultimately caused by an intensive disparity between the lack of natural resource and the great demand of social development. Meanwhile, these stakeholders are often both competitors and cooperators in water saving problems, because water is a type of public resource. Conflicts often occur due to lack of appropriate water allocation scheme. Among the many uses of water, the need of agricultural irrigation water is highly elastic, but this factor has not yet been made full use to free up water from agriculture use. The primary goal of this work is to design an optimal distribution scheme of water resource for dry seasons to maximize benefits from precious water resources, considering the high elasticity of agriculture water demand due to the dynamic of soil moisture affected by the uncertainty of precipitation and other factors like canopy interception. A dynamic programming model will be used to figure out an appropriate allocation of water resources among agricultural irrigation and other purposes like drinking water, industry, and hydropower, etc. In this dynamic programming model, we analytically quantify the dynamic of soil moisture in the agricultural fields by describing the interception with marked Poisson process and describing the rainfall depth with exponential distribution. Then, we figure out a water-saving irrigation scheme, which regulates the timetable and volumes of water in irrigation, in order to minimize irrigation water requirement under the premise of necessary crop yield (as a constraint condition). And then, in turn, we provide a scheme of water resource distribution/allocation among agriculture and other purposes, taking aim at maximizing benefits from precious water resources, or in other words, make best use of limited water resource.

A Decision Support System For The Real-Time Allocation Of The Water Resource Of The Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Wang, G.; Liu, R.

2008-12-01

The Tarim River Basin is the longest inland river in China. Due to water scarcity, ecologically-fragile is becoming a significant constraint to sustainable development in this region. To effectively manage the limited water resources for ecological purposes and for conventional water utilization purposes, a real-time water resources allocation Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed. Based on workflows of the water resources regulations and comprehensive analysis of the efficiency and feasibility of water management strategies, the DSS includes information systems that perform data acquisition, management and visualization, and model systems that perform hydrological forecast, water demand prediction, flow routing simulation and water resources optimization of the hydrological and water utilization process. An optimization and process control strategy is employed to dynamically allocate the water resources among the different stakeholders. The competitive targets and constraints are taken into considered by multi-objective optimization and with different priorities. The DSS of the Tarim River Basin has been developed and been successfully utilized to support the water resources management of the Tarim River Basin since 2005.

Joint optimization of regional water-power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira-Cardenal, Silvio J.; Mo, Birger; Gjelsvik, Anders; Riegels, Niels D.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2016-06-01

Energy and water resources systems are tightly coupled; energy is needed to deliver water and water is needed to extract or produce energy. Growing pressure on these resources has raised concerns about their long-term management and highlights the need to develop integrated solutions. A method for joint optimization of water and electric power systems was developed in order to identify methodologies to assess the broader interactions between water and energy systems. The proposed method is to include water users and power producers into an economic optimization problem that minimizes the cost of power production and maximizes the benefits of water allocation, subject to constraints from the power and hydrological systems. The method was tested on the Iberian Peninsula using simplified models of the seven major river basins and the power market. The optimization problem was successfully solved using stochastic dual dynamic programming. The results showed that current water allocation to hydropower producers in basins with high irrigation productivity, and to irrigation users in basins with high hydropower productivity was sub-optimal. Optimal allocation was achieved by managing reservoirs in very distinct ways, according to the local inflow, storage capacity, hydropower productivity, and irrigation demand and productivity. This highlights the importance of appropriately representing the water users' spatial distribution and marginal benefits and costs when allocating water resources optimally. The method can handle further spatial disaggregation and can be extended to include other aspects of the water-energy nexus.

Distributed Multi-Cell Resource Allocation with Price Based ICI Coordination in Downlink OFDMA Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Gangming; Zhu, Shihua; Hui, Hui

Multi-cell resource allocation under minimum rate request for each user in OFDMA networks is addressed in this paper. Based on Lagrange dual decomposition theory, the joint multi-cell resource allocation problem is decomposed and modeled as a limited-cooperative game, and a distributed multi-cell resource allocation algorithm is thus proposed. Analysis and simulation results show that, compared with non-cooperative iterative water-filling algorithm, the proposed algorithm can remarkably reduce the ICI level and improve overall system performances.

Using WAS/MYWAS For Water Management And Conflict Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, F. M.; Huber, A. T.

2008-12-01

Water is a special economic commodity that cannot be efficiently allocated in a free private market because of social values that are not private ones. The WAS (Water Allocation System) model and its multiyear extension (MYWAS) use demand curves as well as supply conditions to allocate water so as to optimize the total net benefits it brings. However, they permit the user to prescribe policies and constraints on the allocation process so as to take social values into account. These models can be used to perform cost- benefit analyses of projected infrastructure projects taking into account the system-wide effects such projects will bring about. MYWAS, in particular will choose from a menu of possible projects and provide guidance on which ones should be built, when, in what order, and to what capacity. It is a very powerful tool that can be used under varying assumed conditions of climatic conditions. WAS models have been built for Israel, Jordan, and Palestine, and MYWAS models are underway for all three. Aside from their value as domestic management tools, WAS and MYWAS also offer assistance in resolving water disputes, turning what appear to be zero-sum games into win-win situations. They do so by concentrating on water value rather than water quantity and monetizing the disputes in question. In so doing, they provide a method of guiding cooperation in water and separating the analysis of optimal water usage from the often unresolvable question of water ownership and water rights. We have shown in the case of the Middle East, that the gains from such cooperation are typically worth more than the value of fairly large changes in water ownership the size of which is greatly reduced by cooperation. Moreover, disputing parties need not wait for the resolution of the water ownership issue to begin a cooperation that benefits all and permits flexible readjustment of water usage as situations (climatic conditions, populations, etc.) change. They can agree to pay for their use of disputed water by placing the money in a neutrally (or jointly) escrow fund which will be appropriately distributed when the ownership issue is resolved. And it is important to note that acceptance of WAS/MYWAS cooperation does not impinge in any way on the ability of the parties to assert their ownership claims. It merely reduces the practical (as opposed to symbolic and emotional) importance of such claims.

Modelling the effect of environmental factors on resource allocation in mixed plants systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayler, Sebastian; Priesack, Eckart

2010-05-01

In most cases, growth of plants is determined by competition against neighbours for the local resources light, water and nutrients and by defending against herbivores and pathogens. Consequently, it is important for a plant to grow fast without neglecting defence. However, plant internal substrates and energy required to support maintenance, growth and defence are limited and the total demand for these processes cannot be met in most cases. Therefore, allocation of carbohydrates to growth related primary metabolism or to defence related secondary metabolism can be seen as a trade-off between the demand of plants for being competitive against neighbours and for being more resistant against pathogens. A modelling approach is presented which can be used to simulate competition for light, water and nutrients between plant individuals in mixed canopies. The balance of resource allocation between growth processes and synthesis of secondary compounds is modelled by a concept originating from different plant defence hypothesis. The model is used to analyse the impact of environmental factors such as soil water and nitrogen availability, planting density and atmospheric concentration of CO2 on growth of plant individuals within mixed canopies and variations in concentration of carbon-based secondary metabolites in plant tissues.

Economic Impact of Water Allocation on Agriculture in the Lower Chattahoochee River Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Paudel, Krishna P.; Musleh, Fuad; Cruise, James F.; Hatch, L. Upton

2004-01-01

The relative value of irrigation water was assessed for three important crops (corn, cotton, and peanuts) grown in the southeastern United States. A decision tool was developed with the objective of allocating limited available water among competing crops in a manner that would maximize the economic returns to the producers. The methodology was developed and tested for a hypothetical farm located in Henry County, Alabama in the Chattahoochee river basin. Crop yield - soil moisture response functions were developed using Monte Carlo simulated data for cotton, corn, and peanuts. A hydrologic model was employed to simulate runoff over the period of observed rainfall the county to provide inflows to storage facilities that could be used as constraints for the optimal allocation of the available water in the face of the uncertainty of future rainfall and runoff. Irrigation decisions were made on a weekly basis during the critical water deficit period in the region. An economic optimization model was employed with the crop responses, and soil moisture functions to determine the optimum amount of water place on each crop subject to the amount of irrigation water availability and climatic uncertainty. The results indicated even small amounts of irrigation could significantly benefit farmers in the region if applied judiciously. A weekly irrigation sequence was developed that maintained the available water on the crops that exhibited the most significant combination of water sensitivity and cash value.

Role of Sectoral Transformation in the Evolution of Water Management Norms in Agricultural Catchments: A Sociohydrologic Modeling Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, M.; Kandasamy, J.; Pande, S.; Vigneswaran, S.; Sivapalan, M.

2017-10-01

This study is focused on the water-agriculture-environment nexus as it played out in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, eastern Australia, and how coevolution of society and water management actually transpired. Over 100 years of agricultural development the Murrumbidgee Basin experienced a "pendulum swing" in terms of water allocation, initially exclusively for agriculture production changing over to reallocation back to the environment. In this paper, we hypothesize that in the competition for water between economic livelihood and environmental wellbeing, economic diversification was the key to swinging community sentiment in favor of environmental protection, and triggering policy action that resulted in more water allocation to the environment. To test this hypothesis, we developed a sociohydrology model to link the dynamics of the whole economy (both agriculture and industry composed of manufacturing and services) to the community's sensitivity toward the environment. Changing community sensitivity influenced how water was allocated and governed and how the agricultural sector grew relative to the industrial sector (composed of manufacturing and services sectors). In this way, we show that economic diversification played a key role in influencing the community's values and preferences with respect to the environment and economic growth. Without diversification, model simulations show that the community would not have been sufficiently sensitive and willing enough to act to restore the environment, highlighting the key role of sectoral transformation in achieving the goal of sustainable agricultural development.

Planning attitudes, lay philosophies, and water allocation: A preliminary analysis and research agenda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syme, Geoffrey J.; Nancarrow, Blair E.

Despite the important societal consequences of water policy, community attitudes toward planning, ethics, and equity for allocation of water have received little research attention. This preliminary research was conducted to assess the range and structure of planning attitudes and equity and ethical considerations which might be relevant to the general public's evaluation of water allocation systems. The relationship of these to priorities for water allocation were also examined. The results showed a complex structure for planning attitudes. There were also generalized but clearly defined community approaches to water allocation. A number of significant relationships between planning attitudes and philosophies of allocation were shown. Planning attitudes also related to priorities for water allocation. In practical terms the research provides some preliminary, ethically based evaluative criteria which could be applied to allocation decision-making systems. Theoretical research possibilities are also outlined.

The benefit of using additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data on water allocation decisions in irrigation districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2017-04-01

Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.

Choices Matter, but How Do We Model Them?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brelsford, C.; Dumas, M.

2017-12-01

Quantifying interactions between social systems and the physical environment we live within has long been a major scientific challenge. Humans have had such a large influence on our environment that it is no longer reasonable to consider the behavior of an ecological or hydrological system from a purely `physical' perspective: imagining a system that excludes the influence of human choices and behavior. Understanding the role that human social choices play in the energy water nexus is crucial for developing accurate models in that space. The relatively new field of socio-hydrology is making progress towards understanding the role humans play in hydrological systems. While this fact is now widely recognized across the many academic fields that study water systems, we have yet to develop a coherent set of theories for how to model the behavior of these complex and highly interdependent socio-hydrological systems. How should we conceptualize hydrological systems as socio-ecological systems (i.e. system with variables, states, parameters, actors who can control certain variables and a sense of the desirability of states) within which the rigorous study of feedbacks becomes possible? This talk reviews the state of knowledge of how social decisions around water consumption, allocation, and transport influence and are influenced by the physical hydrology that water also moves within. We cover recent papers in socio-hydrology, engineering, water law, and institutional analysis. There have been several calls within socio-hydrology to model human social behavior endogenously along with the hydrology. These improvements are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales. We suggest two potential strategies for coupled models that allow endogenous water consumption behavior: a social first model which looks for empirical relationships between water consumption and allocation choices and the hydrological state, and a hydrology first model in which we look for regularities in how water regimes influence behavior, regional economies, or allocation institutions.

A stream-scale model to optimize the water allocation for Small Hydropower Plants and the application to traditional systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razurel, Pierre; Niayifar, Amin; Perona, Paolo

2017-04-01

Hydropower plays an important role in supplying worldwide energy demand where it contributes to approximately 16% of global electricity production. Although hydropower, as an emission-free renewable energy, is a reliable source of energy to mitigate climate change, its development will increase river exploitation. The environmental impacts associated with both small hydropower plants (SHP) and traditional dammed systems have been found to the consequence of changing natural flow regime with other release policies, e.g. the minimal flow. Nowadays, in some countries, proportional allocation rules are also applied aiming to mimic the natural flow variability. For example, these dynamic rules are part of the environmental guidance in the United Kingdom and constitute an improvement in comparison to static rules. In a context in which the full hydropower potential might be reached in a close future, a solution to optimize the water allocation seems essential. In this work, we present a model that enables to simulate a wide range of water allocation rules (static and dynamic) for a specific hydropower plant and to evaluate their associated economic and ecological benefits. It is developed in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) where, depending on the specific type of hydropower plant (i.e., SHP or traditional dammed system), the user is able to specify the different characteristics (e.g., hydrological data and turbine characteristics) of the studied system. As an alternative to commonly used policies, a new class of dynamic allocation functions (non-proportional repartition rules) is introduced (e.g., Razurel et al., 2016). The efficiency plot resulting from the simulations shows the environmental indicator and the energy produced for each allocation policies. The optimal water distribution rules can be identified on the Pareto's frontier, which is obtained by stochastic optimization in the case of storage systems (e.g., Niayifar and Perona, submitted) and by direct simulation for small hydropower ones (Razurel et al., 2016). Compared to proportional and constant minimal flows, economic and ecological efficiencies are found to be substantially improved in the case of using non-proportional water allocation rules for both SHP and traditional systems.

A decision support system to find the best water allocation strategies in a Mediterranean river basin in future scenarios of global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Vasto-Terrientes, L.; Kumar, V.; Chao, T.-C.; Valls, A.

2016-03-01

Global change refers to climate changes, but also demographic, technological and economic changes. Predicted water scarcity will be critical in the coastal Mediterranean region, especially for provision to mid-sized and large-sized cities. This paper studies the case of the city of Tarragona, located at the Mediterranean area of north-eastern Spain (Catalonia). Several scenarios have been constructed to evaluate different sectorial water allocation policies to mitigate the water scarcity induced by global change. Future water supply and demand predictions have been made for three time spans. The decision support system presented is based on the outranking model, which constructs a partial pre-order based on pairwise preference relations among all the possible actions. The system analyses a hierarchical structure of criteria, including environmental and economic criteria. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources, inter-basin water transfer and sectorial demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors. Results indicate that the most appropriate water allocation strategies depend on the severity of the global change effects.

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

Improved framework model to allocate optimal rainwater harvesting sites in small watersheds for agro-forestry uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terêncio, D. P. S.; Sanches Fernandes, L. F.; Cortes, R. M. V.; Pacheco, F. A. L.

2017-07-01

This study introduces an improved rainwater harvesting (RWH) suitability model to help the implementation of agro-forestry projects (irrigation, wildfire combat) in catchments. The model combines a planning workflow to define suitability of catchments based on physical, socio-economic and ecologic variables, with an allocation workflow to constrain suitable RWH sites as function of project specific features (e.g., distance from rainfall collection to application area). The planning workflow comprises a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) implemented on a Geographic Information System (GIS), whereas the allocation workflow is based on a multiple-parameter ranking analysis. When compared to other similar models, improvement comes with the flexible weights of MCA and the entire allocation workflow. The method is tested in a contaminated watershed (the Ave River basin) located in Portugal. The pilot project encompasses the irrigation of a 400 ha crop land that consumes 2.69 Mm3 of water per year. The application of harvested water in the irrigation replaces the use of stream water with excessive anthropogenic nutrients that may raise nitrosamines in the food and accumulation in the food chain, with severe consequences to human health (cancer). The selected rainfall collection catchment is capable to harvest 12 Mm3·yr-1 (≈ 4.5 × the requirement) and is roughly 3 km far from the application area assuring crop irrigation by gravity flow with modest transport costs. The RWH system is an 8-meter high that can be built in earth with reduced costs.

Water consumption and allocation strategies along the river oases of Tarim River based on large-scale hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Disse, Markus; Yu, Ruide

2016-04-01

With the mainstream of 1,321km and located in an arid area in northwest China, the Tarim River is China's longest inland river. The Tarim basin on the northern edge of the Taklamakan desert is an extremely arid region. In this region, agricultural water consumption and allocation management are crucial to address the conflicts among irrigation water users from upstream to downstream. Since 2011, the German Ministry of Science and Education BMBF established the Sino-German SuMaRiO project, for the sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River. The project aims to contribute to a sustainable land management which explicitly takes into account ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. SuMaRiO will identify realizable management strategies, considering social, economic and ecological criteria. This will have positive effects for nearly 10 million inhabitants of different ethnic groups. The modelling of water consumption and allocation strategies is a core block in the SuMaRiO cluster. A large-scale hydrological model (MIKE HYDRO Basin) was established for the purpose of sustainable agricultural water management in the main stem Tarim River. MIKE HYDRO Basin is an integrated, multipurpose, map-based decision support tool for river basin analysis, planning and management. It provides detailed simulation results concerning water resources and land use in the catchment areas of the river. Calibration data and future predictions based on large amount of data was acquired. The results of model calibration indicated a close correlation between simulated and observed values. Scenarios with the change on irrigation strategies and land use distributions were investigated. Irrigation scenarios revealed that the available irrigation water has significant and varying effects on the yields of different crops. Irrigation water saving could reach up to 40% in the water-saving irrigation scenario. Land use scenarios illustrated that an increase of farmland area in the lower reach gravely aggravated the water deficit, while a decrease of farmland in the upper reaches resulted in considerable benefits for all sub-catchments. A substitution of crops was also investigated, which demonstrated the potential for saving considerable amounts of irrigation water in upper and middle reaches. Overall, the results of this study provide a scientific basis for decision-making on the water consumption and allocation strategies in this arid region.

How to expand irrigated land in a sustainable way ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Amandine V.; Ludwig, Fulco; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel

2015-04-01

Allocation of agriculture commodities and water resources is subject to changes due to climate change, population increase and changes in dietary patterns. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors (industry, household and hydropower) at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m2 (RCP2.6), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 37% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions and parts of South-East Asia where the Water Stress Indicator (WSI) ranges from 0.4 to 1 by 2050. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Some countries such as India expect a significant increase in water demand which might be compensated by an increase in water supply with climate change scenario. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage.

MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

2008-12-01

Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then optimizes at each date (10 days step) the allocation of water across agricultural and urban water demands in order to maximize the social surplus derived from water consumption given the constraints imposed by the water network. An application of the model is proposed for the Neste system located in South-West of France. 67 regions competing for water allocation have been identified in the Neste system. Those regions are characterized by specific cropping systems, specific climate and soil characteristics and by their connections to the water network. The model, including the nodal representation of the water network, has been coded using the algebraic modeling language GAMS. We are currently analyzing the robustness of the approach through scenario testing. Keywords : Integrated water management, optimization-simulation model, agronomic-economic modeling, river basin.

Water Development, Allocation, and Institutions: A Role for Integrated Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, F. A.

2008-12-01

Many parts of the world suffer from inadequate water infrastructure, inefficient water allocation, and weak water institutions. Each of these three challenges compounds the burdens imposed by inadequacies associated with the other two. Weak water infrastructure makes it hard to allocate water efficiently and undermines tracking of water rights and use, which blocks effective functioning of water institutions. Inefficient water allocation makes it harder to secure resources to develop new water infrastructure. Poorly developed water institutions undermine the security of water rights, which damages incentives to develop water infrastructure or use water efficiently. This paper reports on the development of a prototype basin scale economic optimization, in which existing water supplies are allocated more efficiently in the short run to provide resources for more efficient long-run water infrastructure development. Preliminary results provide the basis for designing water administrative proposals, building effective water infrastructure, increasing farm income, and meeting transboundary delivery commitments. The application is to the Kabul River Basin in Afghanistan, where food security has been compromised by a history of drought, war, damaged irrigation infrastructure, lack of reservoir storage, inefficient water allocation, and weak water institutions. Results illustrate increases in economic efficiency achievable when development programs simultaneously address interdependencies in water allocation, development, and institutions.

Improving assessment of groundwater-resource sustainability with deterministic modelling: a case study of the semi-arid Musi sub-basin, South India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massuel, S.; George, B. A.; Venot, J.-P.; Bharati, L.; Acharya, S.

2013-11-01

Since the 1990s, Indian farmers, supported by the government, have partially shifted from surface-water to groundwater irrigation in response to the uncertainty in surface-water availability. Water-management authorities only slowly began to consider sustainable use of groundwater resources as a prime concern. Now, a reliable integration of groundwater resources for water-allocation planning is needed to prevent aquifer overexploitation. Within the 11,000-km2 Musi River sub-basin (South India), human interventions have dramatically impacted the hard-rock aquifers, with a water-table drop of 0.18 m/a over the period 1989-2004. A fully distributed numerical groundwater model was successfully implemented at catchment scale. The model allowed two distinct conceptualizations of groundwater availability to be quantified: one that was linked to easily quantified fluxes, and one that was more expressive of long-term sustainability by taking account of all sources and sinks. Simulations showed that the latter implied 13 % less available groundwater for exploitation than did the former. In turn, this has major implications for the existing water-allocation modelling framework used to guide decision makers and water-resources managers worldwide.

Field-scale modeling of center pivot irrigated cotton: Oullman clay loam series

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Regulatory ground water pumping restrictions continue to be debated in the Southern Ogallala Aquifer region and will eventually result in allocation of irrigation resources becoming more important. Models that address the temporal and spatial variability of water, energy, and nutrient balances at fi...

Development and Application of a Taiwan Domestic Generalized Water Supply Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2016-12-01

Water allocation in Taiwan is more complicated than other countries because high river turbidity caused by rainstorm, reservoir management governed by different organization and conjunctive use of inter-basin reservoirs and dams. Those properties cause water resource planners need make extra effort on developing customized model to simulate the impact of water supply strategies on water resources. Hence, the study develops a Generalized Water Supply Model (GWSM) to analysis Multi-reservoirs water allocation in Taiwan for advancing the planning process. The model has following functions: (1) considering reservoirs operating rule curve. (2) considering the rule of multi-reservoir operation. Such as setting supply priority of different reservoirs or using "index balance" rule. (3) considering optimal hydroelectric power operation. (4) estimating the impact of high river turbidity on water supply. (5) considering the supply priority of different water use. (6) considering irrigation supply under special constraint. Such as the maximum irrigation supply is subject to natural inflow without reservoir storage. (7) considering two-way conduit transport. (8) considering environmental flow reservation. Conjunctive use Taan and Dajia Rivers was selected to demonstrate the ability of GWSM. The results also can be provided to different authorities to realize the impact of different strategies and that is good for negotiation and reaching a consensus.

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraes, M. G. A.; Souza da Silva, G.; Siegmund-Schultze, M.

2016-12-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm.A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform will include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions that are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In addition, they can use the SDSS to include constraints into the model in order to account for further objectives, such as preference given to specific uses or timing of uses. This information, and corresponding policies, can foster enhanced economic welfare and sustainable water use, as well as help to solve water use conflicts.

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

2017-04-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In addition, they can use the SDSS to include constraints into the model in order to account for further objectives, such as preference given to specific uses or timing of uses. This information, and corresponding policies, can foster enhanced economic welfare and sustainable water use, as well as help to solve water use conflicts.

Improved regional water management utilizing climate forecasts: An interbasin transfer model with a risk management framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Weihua; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Ranjithan, R. S.; Brill, E. D.

2014-08-01

Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study proposes a framework for regional water management by proposing an interbasin transfer (IBT) model that uses climate-information-based inflow forecast for minimizing the deviations from the end-of-season target storage across the participating pools. Using the ensemble streamflow forecast, the IBT water allocation model was applied for two reservoir systems in the North Carolina Triangle Area. Results show that interbasin transfers initiated by the ensemble streamflow forecast could potentially improve the overall water supply reliability as the demand continues to grow in the Triangle Area. To further understand the utility of climate forecasts in facilitating IBT under different spatial correlation structures between inflows and between the initial storages of the two systems, a synthetic experiment was designed to evaluate the framework under inflow forecast having different skills. Findings from the synthetic study can be summarized as follows: (a) inflow forecasts combined with the proposed IBT optimization model provide improved allocation in comparison to the allocations obtained under the no-transfer scenario as well as under transfers obtained with climatology; (b) spatial correlations between inflows and between initial storages among participating reservoirs could also influence the potential benefits that could be achieved through IBT; (c) IBT is particularly beneficial for systems that experience low correlations between inflows or between initial storages or on both attributes of the regional water supply system. Thus, if both infrastructure and permitting structures exist for promoting interbasin transfers, season-ahead inflow forecasts could provide added benefits in forecasting surplus/deficit conditions among the participating pools in the regional water supply system.

Improved Regional Water Management Utilizing Climate Forecasts: An Inter-basin Transfer Model with a Risk Management Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Arumugam, S.; Ranjithan, R. S.; Brill, E. D., Jr.

2014-12-01

Regional water supply systems undergo surplus and deficit conditions due to differences in inflow characteristics as well as due to their seasonal demand patterns. This study presents a framework for regional water management by proposing an Inter-Basin Transfer (IBT) model that uses climate-information-based inflow forecast for minimizing the deviations from the end- of-season target storage across the participating reservoirs. Using the ensemble streamflow forecast, the IBT water allocation model was applied for two reservoir systems in the North Carolina Triangle area. Results show that inter-basin transfers initiated by the ensemble streamflow forecast could potentially improve the overall water supply reliability as the demand continues to grow in the Triangle Area. To further understand the utility of climate forecasts in facilitating IBT under different spatial correlation structures between inflows and between the initial storages of the two systems, a synthetic experiment was designed to evaluate the framework under inflow forecast having different skills. Findings from the synthetic study can be summarized as follows: (a) Inflow forecasts combined with the proposed IBT optimization model provide improved allocation in comparison to the allocations obtained under the no- transfer scenario as well as under transfers obtained with climatology; (b) Spatial correlations between inflows and between initial storages among participating reservoirs could also influence the potential benefits that could be achieved through IBT; (c) IBT is particularly beneficial for systems that experience low correlations between inflows or between initial storages or on both attributes of the regional water supply system. Thus, if both infrastructure and permitting structures exist for promoting inter-basin transfers, season-ahead inflow forecasts could provide added benefits in forecasting surplus/deficit conditions among the participating reservoirs in the regional water supply system.

MODIFICATIONS OF WASP FOR SIMULATING PERIPHYTON DYNAMICS

EPA Science Inventory

Conventional water quality models that are in current use today for the development of TMDLs and waste load allocations usually use dissolved oxygen, nutrient concentrations and algal growth as indicators to water health. In shallow streams and rivers, water health can be contro...

Estimating the economic opportunity cost of water use with river basin simulators in a computationally efficient way

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien J.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Matrosov, Evgenii S.

2017-04-01

The marginal opportunity cost of water refers to benefits forgone by not allocating an additional unit of water to its most economically productive use at a specific location in a river basin at a specific moment in time. Estimating the opportunity cost of water is an important contribution to water management as it can be used for better water allocation or better system operation, and can suggest where future water infrastructure could be most beneficial. Opportunity costs can be estimated using 'shadow values' provided by hydro-economic optimization models. Yet, such models' use of optimization means the models had difficulty accurately representing the impact of operating rules and regulatory and institutional mechanisms on actual water allocation. In this work we use more widely available river basin simulation models to estimate opportunity costs. This has been done before by adding in the model a small quantity of water at the place and time where the opportunity cost should be computed, then running a simulation and comparing the difference in system benefits. The added system benefits per unit of water added to the system then provide an approximation of the opportunity cost. This approximation can then be used to design efficient pricing policies that provide incentives for users to reduce their water consumption. Yet, this method requires one simulation run per node and per time step, which is demanding computationally for large-scale systems and short time steps (e.g., a day or a week). Besides, opportunity cost estimates are supposed to reflect the most productive use of an additional unit of water, yet the simulation rules do not necessarily use water that way. In this work, we propose an alternative approach, which computes the opportunity cost through a double backward induction, first recursively from outlet to headwaters within the river network at each time step, then recursively backwards in time. Both backward inductions only require linear operations, and the resulting algorithm tracks the maximal benefit that can be obtained by having an additional unit of water at any node in the network and at any date in time. Results 1) can be obtained from the results of a rule-based simulation using a single post-processing run, and 2) are exactly the (gross) benefit forgone by not allocating an additional unit of water to its most productive use. The proposed method is applied to London's water resource system to track the value of storage in the city's water supply reservoirs on the Thames River throughout a weekly 85-year simulation. Results, obtained in 0.4 seconds on a single processor, reflect the environmental cost of water shortage. This fast computation allows visualizing the seasonal variations of the opportunity cost depending on reservoir levels, demonstrating the potential of this approach for exploring water values and its variations using simulation models with multiple runs (e.g. of stochastically generated plausible future river inflows).

Irrigation water allocation optimization using multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fanuel, Ibrahim Mwita; Mushi, Allen; Kajunguri, Damian

2018-03-01

This paper analyzes more than 40 papers with a restricted area of application of Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm, Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II and Multi-Objective Differential Evolution (MODE) to solve the multi-objective problem in agricultural water management. The paper focused on different application aspects which include water allocation, irrigation planning, crop pattern and allocation of available land. The performance and results of these techniques are discussed. The review finds that there is a potential to use MODE to analyzed the multi-objective problem, the application is more significance due to its advantage of being simple and powerful technique than any Evolutionary Algorithm. The paper concludes with the hopeful new trend of research that demand effective use of MODE; inclusion of benefits derived from farm byproducts and production costs into the model.

Effects of spatially distributed sectoral water management on the redistribution of water resources in an integrated water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, Nathalie; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Leung, L. Ruby; Liu, Lu; Huang, Maoyi; Li, Hong-Yi; Tesfa, Teklu

2017-05-01

Realistic representations of sectoral water withdrawals and consumptive demands and their allocation to surface and groundwater sources are important for improving modeling of the integrated water cycle. To inform future model development, we enhance the representation of water management in a regional Earth system (ES) model with a spatially distributed allocation of sectoral water demands simulated by a regional integrated assessment (IA) model to surface and groundwater systems. The integrated modeling framework (IA-ES) is evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow and sectoral supply deficit in major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S, which differ from ES studies looking at water storage variations. Decreases in historical supply deficit are used as metrics to evaluate IA-ES model improvement in representating the complex sectoral human activities for assessing future adaptation and mitigation strategies. We also assess the spatial changes in both regulated flow and unmet demands, for irrigation and nonirrigation sectors, resulting from the individual and combined additions of groundwater and return flow modules. Results show that groundwater use has a pronounced regional and sectoral effect by reducing water supply deficit. The effects of sectoral return flow exhibit a clear east-west contrast in the hydrologic patterns, so the return flow component combined with the IA sectoral demands is a major driver for spatial redistribution of water resources and water deficits in the US. Our analysis highlights the need for spatially distributed sectoral representation of water management to capture the regional differences in interbasin redistribution of water resources and deficits.

Water ecosystem service function assessment based on eco-hydrological process in Luanhe Basin,China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Hao, C.; Qin, T.; Wang, G.; Weng, B.

2012-12-01

At present, ecological water are mainly occupied by a rapid development of social economic and population explosion, which seriously threat the ecological security and water security in watershed and regional scale. Due to the lack of a unified standard of measuring the benefit of water resource, social economic and ecosystem, the water allocation can't take place in social economic and ecosystem. The function which provided by water in terrestrial, aquatic and social economic system can be addressed through water ecosystem service function research, and it can guide the water allocation in water resource management. The function which provided by water in terrestrial, aquatic and social economic system can be addressed through water ecosystem service function research, and it can guide the water allocation in water resource management. Throughout the researches of water ecosystem service, a clear identification of the connection of water ecosystem service function has not been established, and eco-economic approach can't meet the practical requirement of water allocation. Based on "nature-artificiality" dual water cycle theory and eco-hydrological process, this paper proposes a connection and indicator system of water ecosystem service function. In approach, this paper establishes an integrated assessment approach through prototype observation technology, numerical simulation, physical simulation and modern geographic information technology. The core content is to couple an eco-hydrological model, which involves the key processes of distributed hydrological model (WEP), ecological model (CLM-DGVM), in terms of eco-hydrological process. This paper systematically evaluates the eco-hydrological process and evolution of Luanhe Basin in terms of precipitation, ET, runoff, groundwater, ecosystem's scale, form and distribution. According to the results of eco-hydrological process, this paper assesses the direct and derived service function. The result indicates that the general service function of 2010 has minor increase than 2007, however the general function of two years are in common level; Compare with different region, the upstream, middle stream and downstream indicates "worse", "common" and "good" level respectively. The first three derived functions are leisure, offer products and industrial water use. In the end, this paper investigates the evolution of water ecosystem service function under rising temperatures and elevated CO2 concentration scenarios in Luanhe Basin through eco-hydrological model. The results elaborate that the water ecosystem service functions would decline when temperature rising, and warming to 1.5 degree is the mutation point of sharp drop; Increased CO2 concentration scenario will improve the direct service function in the whole Basin; under the overlying scenario, different region shows different results, the direct service function will increased in upstream and middle stream, direct service function will drop in downstream. A comprehensive analysis indicates that the rising temperature is the major driven of water ecosystem service function in Luanhe Basin.

Incomplete water securitization in coupled hydro-human production sytems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Boom, B.; Pande, S.

2012-04-01

Due to the dynamics, the externalities and the contingencies involved in managing local water resource for production, the water allocation at basin-level is a subtle balance between laws of nature (gravity; flux) and laws of economics (price; productivity). We study this balance by looking at inter-temporal basin-level water resource allocations in which subbasins enjoy a certain degree of autonomy. Each subbasin is represented as an economic agent i, following a gravity ordering with i=1 representing the most upstream area and i=I the downstream boundary. The water allocation is modeled as a decentralized equilibrium in a coupled conceptual hydro-human production system. Agents i=1,2,...,I in the basin produce a composite good according to a technology that requires water as a main input and that is specific to the subbasin. Agent i manages her use Xi and her storage Si, conceptualizing surface and subsurface water, of water with the purpose of maximizing the utility derived from consumption Ci of the composite good, where Ci is a scalar and Xi and Si are vectors which are composed of one element for each time period and for each contingency. A natural way to consume the good would be to absorb the own production. Yet, the agent may have two more option, namely, she might get a social transfer from other agents or she could use an income from trading water securities with her contiguous neighbors. To study these options, we compare water allocations (Ci, Xi, Si) all i=1,2,...,I for three different settings. We look at allocations without water securitization (water autarky equilibrium EA) first. Next, we describe the imaginary case of full securitization (contingent water markets equilibrium ECM) and, in between, we study limited securitization (incomplete water security equilibrium EWS). We show that allocations under contingent water markets ECM are efficient in the sense that, for the prevailing production technologies, no other allocation exists that is at least good as for all the agents and that makes at least one agent better off . On the other hand, allocations under autarky EA will tend to be inefficient, meaning that other allocations may exist that would be preferred by some agents without compromising the interest of the others. By the same token, the in-between case with water securities will generally also fail to achieve full efficiency. Nonetheless, some securitization will always be at least as good as none while it will be better under conditions of water scarcity that are common in dryland area river basins. Hence water allocations under EWS will generally lead to an improvement over those under EA. It should be noted that the fully efficient equilibrium is only imaginary because it requires a separate water security for every agent, for every period and for every contingency that nature might hold. Clearly, because of dimensionality, this amount of securities will be beyond reach. Therefore, water securitization with a limited number of securities remains as the only practical option to deal with the inefficiency of water allocations under autarky. The economic theory of incomplete markets provides a useful framework to study limited water securitization. We apply the theory in the context of our water allocation framework using an institutional setting where downstream agent i may secure water from upstream agent (i-1) through an agreement that pays for (i-1)'s water savings. In this manner we identify (I-1) water securities, one for each pair of contiguous agents. Each security addresses, at the local level, the interaction of flows over time and over contingencies that might occur. Under scarcity conditions prevalent in many river basins, agents will show an interest to supply and demand such securities. In particular, downstream area can often make more productive use of water. Accordingly, in the water autarky equilibrium EA, they would be willing to pay for more water, while, at the same time, upstream users would be prepared to make water savings to the extent that the payment for the security will exceed the value of foregone production losses. Thus, although inevitably incomplete, water securitization could play a significant role in increasing the efficiency of the allocation of water resources at the basin-level. Evidence from river basins in various parts of the world suggests that gains could be sizeable. This paper dwells upon the advantages and challenges of a transdisciplinary approach that blends the laws of nature with those of economics. It aims to identify efficiency gains from water securitization while addressing the institutional difficulties of implementation due to inherent incompleteness in markets that allow trade in such securities.

Balancing food security and water demand for freshwater ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Obersteiner, Michael; Biemans, Hester; Wada, Yoshihide; Kabat, Pavel; Ludwig, Fulco

2017-04-01

Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage.

An Agent-based Model for Groundwater Allocation and Management at the Bakken Shale in Western North Dakota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, T.; Lin, Z.; Lim, S.

2017-12-01

We present an integrated modeling framework to simulate groundwater level change under the dramatic increase of hydraulic fracturing water use in the Bakken Shale oil production area. The framework combines the agent-based model (ABM) with the Fox Hills-Hell Creek (FH-HC) groundwater model. In development of the ABM, institution theory is used to model the regulation policies from the North Dakota State Water Commission, while evolutionary programming and cognitive maps are used to model the social structure that emerges from the behavior of competing individual water businesses. Evolutionary programming allows individuals to select an appropriate strategy when annually applying for potential water use permits; whereas cognitive maps endow agent's ability and willingness to compete for more water sales. All agents have their own influence boundaries that inhibit their competitive behavior toward their neighbors but not to non-neighbors. The decision-making process is constructed and parameterized with both quantitative and qualitative information, i.e., empirical water use data and knowledge gained from surveys with stakeholders. By linking institution theory, evolutionary programming, and cognitive maps, our approach addresses a higher complexity of the real decision making process. Furthermore, this approach is a new exploration for modeling the dynamics of Coupled Human and Natural System. After integrating ABM with the FH-HC model, drought and limited water accessibility scenarios are simulated to predict FH-HC ground water level changes in the future. The integrated modeling framework of ABM and FH-HC model can be used to support making scientifically sound policies in water allocation and management.

The future of irrigated agriculture under environmental flow requirements restrictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, Amandine; Palazzo, Amanda; Havlik, Petr; Kabat, Pavel; Obersteiner, Michael; Ludwig, Fulco

2016-04-01

Water is not an infinite resource and demand from irrigation, household and industry is constantly increasing. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation and other sectors at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 (RCP8.5), the socio-economic scenario (SSP2: middle-of-road), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage.

Optimizing basin-scale coupled water quantity and water quality man-agement with stochastic dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Engelund Holm, Peter; Trapp, Stefan; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2015-04-01

Few studies address water quality in hydro-economic models, which often focus primarily on optimal allocation of water quantities. Water quality and water quantity are closely coupled, and optimal management with focus solely on either quantity or quality may cause large costs in terms of the oth-er component. In this study, we couple water quality and water quantity in a joint hydro-economic catchment-scale optimization problem. Stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocation, water curtailment and water treatment. The simple water quality module can handle conservative pollutants, first order depletion and non-linear reactions. For demonstration purposes, we model pollutant releases as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and use the Streeter-Phelps equation for oxygen deficit to compute the resulting min-imum dissolved oxygen concentrations. Inelastic water demands, fixed water allocation curtailment costs and fixed wastewater treatment costs (before and after use) are estimated for the water users (agriculture, industry and domestic). If the BOD concentration exceeds a given user pollution thresh-old, the user will need to pay for pre-treatment of the water before use. Similarly, treatment of the return flow can reduce the BOD load to the river. A traditional SDP approach is used to solve one-step-ahead sub-problems for all combinations of discrete reservoir storage, Markov Chain inflow clas-ses and monthly time steps. Pollution concentration nodes are introduced for each user group and untreated return flow from the users contribute to increased BOD concentrations in the river. The pollutant concentrations in each node depend on multiple decision variables (allocation and wastewater treatment) rendering the objective function non-linear. Therefore, the pollution concen-tration decisions are outsourced to a genetic algorithm, which calls a linear program to determine the remainder of the decision variables. This hybrid formulation keeps the optimization problem computationally feasible and represents a flexible and customizable method. The method has been applied to the Ziya River basin, an economic hotspot located on the North China Plain in Northern China. The basin is subject to severe water scarcity, and the rivers are heavily polluted with wastewater and nutrients from diffuse sources. The coupled hydro-economic optimiza-tion model can be used to assess costs of meeting additional constraints such as minimum water qual-ity or to economically prioritize investments in waste water treatment facilities based on economic criteria.

A data-driven emulation framework for representing water-food nexus in a changing cold region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Zandmoghaddam, S.; Hatami, S.

2017-12-01

Water resource systems are under increasing pressure globally. Growing population along with competition between water demands and emerging effects of climate change have caused enormous vulnerabilities in water resource management across many regions. Diagnosing such vulnerabilities and provision of effective adaptation strategies requires the availability of simulation tools that can adequately represent the interactions between competing water demands for limiting water resources and inform decision makers about the critical vulnerability thresholds under a range of potential natural and anthropogenic conditions. Despite a significant progress in integrated modeling of water resource systems, regional models are often unable to fully represent the contemplating dynamics within the key elements of water resource systems locally. Here we propose a data-driven approach to emulate a complex regional water resource system model developed for Oldman River Basin in southern Alberta, Canada. The aim of the emulation is to provide a detailed understanding of the trade-offs and interaction at the Oldman Reservoir, which is the key to flood control and irrigated agriculture in this over-allocated semi-arid cold region. Different surrogate models are developed to represent the dynamic of irrigation demand and withdrawal as well as reservoir evaporation and release individually. The nan-falsified offline models are then integrated through the water balance equation at the reservoir location to provide a coupled model for representing the dynamic of reservoir operation and water allocation at the local scale. The performance of individual and integrated models are rigorously examined and sources of uncertainty are highlighted. To demonstrate the practical utility of such surrogate modeling approach, we use the integrated data-driven model for examining the trade-off in irrigation water supply, reservoir storage and release under a range of changing climate, upstream streamflow and local irrigation conditions.

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2014-01-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed in recent decades. However, few models consider the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes, and human activities and associated water use, and even fewer models distinguish water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we couple a global water demand model with a global hydrological model and dynamically simulate daily water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We explicitly take into account the mutual feedback between supply and demand, and implement a newly developed water allocation scheme to distinguish surface water and groundwater use. Moreover, we include a new irrigation scheme, which works dynamically with a daily surface and soil water balance, and incorporate the newly available extensive Global Reservoir and Dams data set (GRanD). Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawals generally show good agreement with reported national and subnational statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, with a more rapid increase in groundwater use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and interannual variability. This alteration is particularly large over heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use and associated reservoir operations generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

Global Modeling of Withdrawal, Allocation and Consumptive Use of Surface Water and Groundwater Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F.

2014-12-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over large scales, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed in recent decades. However, few models consider the interaction between terrestrial water fluxes, and human activities and associated water use, and even fewer models distinguish water use from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we couple a global water demand model with a global hydrological model and dynamically simulate daily water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We explicitly take into account the mutual feedback between supply and demand, and implement a newly developed water allocation scheme to distinguish surface water and groundwater use. Moreover, we include a new irrigation scheme, which works dynamically with a daily surface and soil water balance, and incorporate the newly available extensive global reservoir data set (GRanD). Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawals generally show good agreement with reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, with a more rapid increase in groundwater use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. This alteration is particularly large over heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use and associated reservoir operations generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the irrigated area. The most sensitive area is along the Boise Foothill which is the transitioning zone from water deficit to water abundant. However, these trends vary significantly between scenarios in space and time. The outcome of the study will serve as a reference for local stakeholders to make decisions on future land use.

Recovery of Ground-Water Levels from 1988 to 2003 and Analysis of Effects of 2003 and Full-Allocation Withdrawals in Critical Area 2, Southern New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spitz, Frederick J.; dePaul, Vincent T.

2008-01-01

Water levels in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system within Water Supply Critical Area 2 in the southern New Jersey Coastal Plain have recovered as a result of reductions in ground-water withdrawals initiated in the early 1990s. The Critical Area consists of the depleted zone and the threatened margin. The Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system consists of the Upper, Middle, and Lower aquifers. Generally, ground-water withdrawals from these aquifers declined 5 to 10 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) and water levels recovered 0 to 40 ft (foot) from 1988 to 2003. In order to reevaluate water-allocation restrictions in Critical Area 2 in response to changes in the ground-water-flow system and demands for additional water supply due to increased development, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) needs information about the effects of changes in those allocations. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the NJDEP, used an existing ground-water-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain to evaluate the effects of withdrawal alternatives on hydraulic heads in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in Critical Area 2. The U.S. Geological Survey Regional Aquifer System Analysis model was used to simulate steady-state ground-water flow. Two withdrawal conditions were tested by using the model to evaluate hydraulic heads and differences in heads in these aquifers: 2003 withdrawals and full-allocation withdrawals (17.4 Mgal/d greater than 2003 withdrawals). Model results are presented using head maps and head-difference maps that compare 2003 to full-allocation withdrawals. Mandated hydrologic conditions for Critical Area protection are that the simulated -30-ft head contour not extend beyond the boundary of the depleted zone and (or) be at least 5 mi (miles) updip from the 250-mg/L (milligram per liter) isochlor in all three aquifers. Simulation results indicate that, for 2003 withdrawals, the simulated -30-ft head contour in all three aquifers is generally within the boundary of the depleted zone, except in the Lower aquifer in northern Camden and northwestern Burlington Counties, and is generally 1 to 10 mi downdip from the 250-mg/L isochlor. (Corresponding observed data indicate that the -30-ft water-level contour extends beyond the southwest boundary of the depleted zone in the Upper and Middle aquifers, and is generally 5 to 20 mi downdip from the 250-mg/L isochlor in all three aquifers.) The area in which heads are below -30 ft ranges from 389 mi2 (square miles) in the Middle aquifer to 427 mi2 in the Lower aquifer. For full-allocation withdrawals, the simulated -30-ft head contour extends beyond the boundary of the depleted zone in all three aquifers in northern Camden and northwestern Burlington Counties and in the Upper aquifer in Gloucester and Salem Counties, and is generally 5 to 15 mi downdip from the 250-mg/L isochlor. The area in which heads are below -30 ft ranges from 616 mi2 in the Upper aquifer to 813 mi2 in the Lower aquifer. These results and observed data indicate that any increase in withdrawals from 2003 values would likely cause heads in the three aquifers to decline below the minimum values mandated by the NJDEP for the Critical Area.

An inexact mixed risk-aversion two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, W; Wang, B; Xie, Y L; Huang, G H; Liu, L

2015-02-01

Uncertainties exist in the water resources system, while traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk-neutral and compares the random variables (e.g., total benefit) to identify the best decisions. To deal with the risk issues, a risk-aversion inexact two-stage stochastic programming model is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The model was a hybrid methodology of interval-parameter programming, conditional value-at-risk measure, and a general two-stage stochastic programming framework. The method extends on the traditional two-stage stochastic programming method by enabling uncertainties presented as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. It could not only provide information on the benefits of the allocation plan to the decision makers but also measure the extreme expected loss on the second-stage penalty cost. The developed model was applied to a hypothetical case of water resources management. Results showed that that could help managers generate feasible and balanced risk-aversion allocation plans, and analyze the trade-offs between system stability and economy.

Implementing seasonal carbon allocation into a dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, Marleen; Kruijt, Bart; Hickler, Thomas; Forrest, Matthew; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Long-term measurements of terrestrial fluxes through the FLUXNET Eddy Covariance network have revealed that carbon and water fluxes can be highly variable from year-to-year. This so-called interannual variability (IAV) of ecosystems is not fully understood because a direct relation with environmental drivers cannot always be found. Many dynamic vegetation models allocate NPP to leaves, stems, and root compartments on an annual basis, and thus do not account for seasonal changes in productivity in response to changes in environmental stressors. We introduce this vegetation seasonality into dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS by implementing a new carbon allocation scheme on a daily basis. We focus in particular on modelling the observed flux seasonality of the Amazon basin, and validate our new model against fluxdata and MODIS GPP products. We expect that introducing seasonal variability into the model improves estimates of annual productivity and IAV, and therefore the model's representation of ecosystem carbon budgets as a whole.

How Green Water Flows structure be a decision indicator for ecological water allocation in arid Ejina Delta, China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, J.; Du, C.; Zhang, Y.; Liu, X.

2014-12-01

Green water flows, a key ecohydrological process, dominates the hydrological cycle in arid region. The structure of green water flows reflects the landscape water consumption characteristics and can be easily obtained by means of remote sensing approach. In arid region, limited fresh water and fragile environment resulted in sharp contradictions between economy and natural ecosystem concerning water demands. To rationally allocate economic and ecological water use, to maximize the regional freshwater use efficiency, is the route one must take for sustainable development in arid area. The pursuit of the most necessary ecological protection function and the maximum ecological water use efficiency is the key to ecological water allocation. However, we are short of simple and quick detectable variables or indexes to assess ecological water allocation decision. This paper introduced the green water flows structure as a decision variable, chose Heihe river flow allocation to downstream Ejina Delta for ecological protection as an example, put forward why and how green water flows structure could be used for ecological water allocation decision. The authors expect to provide reference for integrated fresh water resources management practice in arid region.

Evapotranspiration measurement and modeling in Mid-South irrigated rice

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nearly 75% of US rice is grown in the humid mid-South. Rice requires more water to produce than other crops (corn, soybean, and cotton). The identification of rice evapotranspiration and irrigation demand is paramount to understand regional water use and water allocation. Drill-seeded, commercial si...

Two-stage seasonal streamflow forecasts to guide water resources decisions and water rights allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Gonzalez, E.; Bonnafous, L.

2011-12-01

Decision-making in water resources is inherently uncertain producing copious risks, ranging from operational (present) to planning (season-ahead) to design/adaptation (decadal) time-scales. These risks include human activity and climate variability/change. As the risks in designing and operating water systems and allocating available supplies vary systematically in time, prospects for predicting and managing such risks become increasingly attractive. Considerable effort has been undertaken to improve seasonal forecast skill and advocate for integration to reduce risk, however only minimal adoption is evident. Impediments are well defined, yet tailoring forecast products and allowing for flexible adoption assist in overcoming some obstacles. The semi-arid Elqui River basin in Chile is contending with increasing levels of water stress and demand coupled with insufficient investment in infrastructure, taxing its ability to meet agriculture, hydropower, and environmental requirements. The basin is fed from a retreating glacier, with allocation principles founded on a system of water rights and markets. A two-stage seasonal streamflow forecast at leads of one and two seasons prescribes the probability of reductions in the value of each water right, allowing water managers to inform their constituents in advance. A tool linking the streamflow forecast to a simple reservoir decision model also allows water managers to select a level of confidence in the forecast information.

Effect of Climate Change and Transaction Costs on Performance of a Groundwater Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, H. F.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

With surface water resources becoming increasingly stressed, groundwater extraction, much of it unmanaged, has increased globally. Incentive-based policies, such as the cap-and-trade system, have been shown to be useful in the context of groundwater management. Previous research has shown that optimal groundwater markets (i.e. incentives-based policy) outperforms water quotas (command and control policy) with regards to both economic and environmental outcomes. In this work, we investigate whether these advantages of a water market over water quotas hold when assumptions of perfect information are violated due to climate change and hydrogeologic heterogeneity. We also assess whether the benefits of a cap-and-trade system outweigh the costs of implementing it, and how changes in future climate affect the performance a cap-and trade system. We use a sub-basin of the Republican River Basin, overlying the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, as a case study. We develop a multi-agent system model where individual benefits of each self-interested agent are maximized subject to bounds on irrigation requirements and water use permits. This economic model is coupled with a calibrated physically based groundwater model for the study region. Results show that permitting farmers to trade results in increased economic benefits and reduced environmental violations. However, the benefits of trading are dependent on the total allocations and the resulting level of water demand. We quantify third party impacts and environmental externalities for different water allocations, and highlight the unequal distributional effects of uniform water allocations resulting in `winners' and `losers'. The study reveals that high transaction costs can reduce the efficiency of the cap-and-trade system even below that of water quotas. Future changes in climate are shown to significantly influence the dynamics of the water market, and emphasize the need to address climate sensitivity in the setup of water markets.

Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The paradigm of integrated water resources management requires coupled analysis of hydrology and water resources in a river basin. Population growth and uncertainties due to climate change make historic data not a reliable source of information for future planning of water resources, hence necessit...

Simulation of Intra- or transboundary surface-water-rights hierarchies using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmid, W.; Hanson, R.T.

2007-01-01

Water-rights driven surface-water allocations for irrigated agriculture can be simulated using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000. This paper describes and develops a model, which simulates routed surface-water deliveries to farms limited by streamflow, equal-appropriation allotments, or a ranked prior-appropriation system. Simulated diversions account for deliveries to all farms along a canal according to their water-rights ranking and for conveyance losses and gains. Simulated minimum streamflow requirements on diversions help guarantee supplies to senior farms located on downstream diverting canals. Prior appropriation can be applied to individual farms or to groups of farms modeled as "virtual farms" representing irrigation districts, irrigated regions in transboundary settings, or natural vegetation habitats. The integrated approach of jointly simulating canal diversions, surface-water deliveries subject to water-rights constraints, and groundwater allocations is verified on numerical experiments based on a realistic, but hypothetical, system of ranked virtual farms. Results are discussed in light of transboundary water appropriation and demonstrate the approach's suitability for simulating effects of water-rights hierarchies represented by international treaties, interstate stream compacts, intrastate water rights, or ecological requirements. ?? 2007 ASCE.

A Two-stage Approach for Water Demand Prediction under Constrained total water use and Water Environmental Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Y.; Xiaohong, C.; Lin, K.; Wang, Z.

2016-12-01

Water demand (WD) is the basis for water allocation (WA) because it can fully reflect the pressure on water resources from population and socioeconomic development. To deal with the great uncertainties and the absence of consideration of water environmental capacity (WEC) in traditional water demand prediction methods, e.g. Statistical models, System Dynamics and quota method, this study develops a two-stage approach to predict WD under constrained total water use from the perspective of ecological restraint. Regional total water demand (RTWD) is constrained by WEC, available water resources amount and total water use quota. Based on RTWD, WD is allocated in two stages according to the game theory, including predicting sub regional total water demand (SRWD) by calculating the sub region weights based on the selected indicators of socioeconomic development and predicting industrial water demand (IWD) according to the game theory. Taking the Dongjiang river basin, South China as an example of WD prediction, according to its constrained total water use quota and WEC, RTWD in 2020 is 9.83 billion m3, and IWD for agriculture, industry, service, ecology (off-stream), and domesticity are 2.32 billion m3, 3.79 billion m3, 0.75 billion m3 , 0.18 billion m3and 1.79 billion m3 respectively. The results from this study provide useful insights for effective water allocation under climate change and the strict policy of water resources management.

Incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergopolan, N.; Chaney, N.; Wanders, N.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

The increasing demand for water, energy, and food is leading to unsustainable groundwater and surface water exploitation. As a result, the human interactions with the environment, through alteration of land and water resources dynamics, need to be reflected in hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs). Advancements in representing human-water dynamics still leave challenges related to the lack of water use data, water allocation algorithms, and modeling scales. This leads to an over-simplistic representation of human water use in large-scale models; this is in turn leads to an inability to capture extreme events signatures and to provide reliable information at stakeholder-level spatial scales. The emergence of hyper-resolution models allows one to address these challenges by simulating the hydrological processes and interactions with the human impacts at field scales. We integrated human-water dynamics into HydroBlocks - a hyper-resolution, field-scale resolving LSM. HydroBlocks explicitly solves the field-scale spatial heterogeneity of land surface processes through interacting hydrologic response units (HRUs); and its HRU-based model parallelization allows computationally efficient long-term simulations as well as ensemble predictions. The implemented human-water dynamics include groundwater and surface water abstraction to meet agricultural, domestic and industrial water demands. Furthermore, a supply-demand water allocation scheme based on relative costs helps to determine sectoral water use requirements and tradeoffs. A set of HydroBlocks simulations over the Midwest United States (daily, at 30-m spatial resolution for 30 years) are used to quantify the irrigation impacts on water availability. The model captures large reductions in total soil moisture and water table levels, as well as spatiotemporal changes in evapotranspiration and runoff peaks, with their intensity related to the adopted water management strategy. By incorporating human-water dynamics in a hyper-resolution LSM this work allows for progress on hydrological monitoring and predictions, as well as drought preparedness and water impact assessments at relevant decision-making scales.

Analysis of Effects of 2003 and Full-Allocation Withdrawals in Critical Area 1, East-Central New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spitz, Frederick J.

2009-01-01

Critical Area 1 in east-central New Jersey was mandated in the early 1980s to address large drawdowns caused by increases in groundwater withdrawals. The aquifers involved include the Englishtown aquifer system, Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, and the Upper and Middle Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers. Groundwater levels recovered as a result of mandated cutbacks in withdrawals that began in the late 1980s. Subsequent increased demand for water has necessitated an analysis to determine the effects of full-allocation withdrawals, which supplements an optimization analysis done previously. A steady-state regional groundwater flow model is used to evaluate the effects of 2003 withdrawals and full-allocation withdrawals (7.3 million gallons per day greater than for 2003) on simulated water-levels. Simulation results indicate that the range of available withdrawals greater than full-allocation withdrawals is likely between 0 and 12 million gallons per day. The estimated range of available withdrawals is based on: (1) an examination of hydraulic-heads resulting from each of the two simulations, (2) an examination of differences in heads between these two simulations, (3) a comparison of simulated heads from each of the two simulations with the estimated location of salty groundwater, and (4) a comparison of simulated 2003 water levels to observed 2003 water levels. The results of the simulations also indicate that obtaining most of the available water would require varying the distribution of withdrawals and (or) relaxing the mandated hydrologic constraints used to protect the water supply.

Decision support for the management of water resources at Sub-middle of the São Francisco river basin in Brazil using integrated hydro-economic modeling and scenarios for land use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraes, M. G. A.; Souza da Silva, G.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models can measure the economic effects of different operating rules, environmental restrictions, ecosystems services, technical constraints and institutional constraints. Furthermore, water allocation can be improved by considering economical criteria's. Likewise, climate and land use change can be analyzed to provide resilience. We developed and applied a hydro-economic optimization model to determine the optimal water allocation of main users in the Lower-middle São Francisco River Basin in Northeast (NE) Brazil. The model uses demand curves for the irrigation projects, small farmers and human supply, rather than fixed requirements for water resources. This study analyzed various constraints and operating alternatives for the installed hydropower dams in economic terms. A seven-year period (2000-2006) with water scarcity in the past has been selected to analyze the water availability and the associated optimal economic water allocation. The used constraints are technical, socioeconomic and environmental. The economically impacts of scenarios like prioritizing human consumption, impacts of the implementation of the São Francisco river transposition, human supply without high distribution losses, environmental hydrographs, forced reservoir level control, forced reduced reservoir capacity, alteration of lower flow restriction were analyzed. The results in this period show that scarcity costs related ecosystem service and environmental constraints are significant, and have major impacts (increase of scarcity cost) for consumptive users like irrigation projects. In addition, institutional constraints such as prioritizing human supply, minimum release limits downstream of the reservoirs and the implementation of the transposition project impact the costs and benefits of the two main economic sectors (irrigation and power generation) in the region of the Lower-middle of the São Francisco river basin. Scarcity costs for irrigation users generally increase more (in percentage terms) than the other users associated to environmental and institutional constraints.

A Method for Optimal Allocation between Instream and Offstream Uses in the Maipo River in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Génova, P. P.; Olivares, M. A.

2016-12-01

Minimum instream flows (MIF) have been established in Chile with the aim of protecting aquatic ecosystems. In practice, since current water law only allocates water rights to offstream water uses, MIF becomes the only instrument for instream water allocation. However, MIF do not necessarily maintain an adequate flow for instream uses. Moreover, an efficient allocation of water for instream uses requires the quantification of the benefits obtained from those uses, so that tradeoffs between instream and offstream water uses are properly considered. A model of optimal allocation between instream and offstream uses is elaborated. The proposed method combines two pieces of information. On one hand, benefits of instream use are represented by qualitative recreational benefit curves as a function of instream flow. On the other hand, the opportunity cost given by lost benefits of offstream uses is employed to develop a supply curve for instream flows. We applied this method to the case of the Maipo River, where the main water uses are recreation, hydropower production and drinking water. Based on available information we obtained the qualitative benefits of various recreational activities as a function of flow attributes. Then we developed flow attributes curves as a function of instream flow for a representative number of sections in the river. As a result we obtained the qualitative recreational benefit curve for each section. The marginal cost curve for instream flows was developed from the benefit functions of hydropower production interfering with recreation in the Maipo River. The purpose of this supply curve is to find a range of instream flow that will provide a better quality condition for recreation experience at a lower opportunity cost. Results indicate that offstream uses adversely influence recreational activities in the Maipo River in certain months of the year, significantly decreasing the quality of these in instream uses. As expected, the impact depends of the magnitude of diverted flows, and therefore these impacts can be reduced restricting the amount of water extracted from the river. Accordingly, it is possible to define the optimum amount of water to be allocated to each use for each month such that instream flows are appropriate for recreation and the loss of hydropower production benefits is lowest.

How much water flows? Examining water allocations using a mobile decision lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strickert, G. E.; Gober, P.; Bradford, L. E.; Phillips, P.; Ross, J.

2016-12-01

Management of freshwater resources is a complex and multifaceted issues. Big challenges like scarcity, conflicts over water use and access, and ecosystem degradation are widespread around the world. These issues reflects ineffective past practices and signals the need for a fundamental change. Previous actions to mitigate these problems have been incremental rather than innovative, in part because of inherent conservatism in the water management community and an inability to experiment with water allocations in a safe environment. The influence of transboundary water policies was tested using a mobile decision lab which examined three theory areas: limited territorial sovereignty, absolute territorial sovereignty, and shared risk. The experiment allowed people engaged in the water sector to allocate incoming flows to different sectors: agriculture, municipal, industrial and environmental flows in two flow scenarios; slight shortage and extreme water shortage, and to pass on the remaining water to downstream regions. Mandatory sharing 50% of the natural flows between provinces (i.e. limited territorial sovereignty) achieved the most equitable allocation based on water units and points across the three regions. When there were no allocation rules (i.e. absolute territorial sovereignty) the downstream region received significantly less water (e.g. 8-11%. p < 0.001) less water to fulfill its demand. Allowing communication between up and down stream regions (i.e. shared risk) had a negligible affect on the amount of water flowing through the region. It is also notable that most participants sought a trade-off of water allocations, minimizing the allocations to agriculture and industry and prioritizing the municipal sector particularity under the severe drought scenario.

Achieving Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Basin in Northwest Mexico through an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Hernandez, A.; Mayer, A. S.

2008-12-01

The hydrologic systems in Northwest Mexico are at risk of over exploitation due to poor management of the water resources and adverse climatic conditions. The purpose of this work is to create and Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model to support future development in the Yaqui River basin, well known by its agricultural productivity, by directing the water management practices toward sustainability. The Yaqui River basin is a semi-arid basin with an area of 72,000 square kilometers and an average precipitation of 527 mm per year. The primary user of water is agriculture followed by domestic use and industry. The water to meet user demands comes from three reservoirs constructed, in series, along the river. The main objective of the integrated simulation-optimization model is to maximize the economic benefit within the basin, subject to physical and environmental constraints. Decision variables include the water allocation to major users and reservoirs as well as aquifer releases. Economic and hydrologic (including the interaction of the surface water and groundwater) simulation models were both included in the integrated model. The surface water model refers to a rainfall-runoff model created, calibrated, and incorporated into a MATLAB code that estimates the monthly storage in the main reservoirs by solving a water balance. The rainfall-runoff model was coupled with a groundwater model of the Yaqui Valley which was previously developed (Addams, 2004). This model includes flow in the main canals and infiltration to the aquifer. The economic benefit of water for some activities such as agricultural use, domestic use, hydropower generation, and environmental value was determined. Sensitivity analysis was explored for those parameters that are not certain such as price elasticities or population growth. Different water allocation schemes were created based on climate change, climate variability, and socio-economic scenarios. Addams L. 2004. Water resource policy evaluation using a combined hydrologic-economic-agronomic modeling framework: Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico. Ph.D.dissertation, Stanford University.

[Responses of Cynodon dactylon population in hydro-fluctuation belt of Three Gorges Reservoir area to flooding-drying habitat change].

PubMed

Hong, Ming; Guo, Quan-Shu; Nie, Bi-Hong; Kang, Yi; Pei, Shun-Xiang; Jin, Jiang-Qun; Wang, Xiang-Fu

2011-11-01

This paper studied the population density, morphological characteristics, and biomass and its allocation of Cynodon dactylon at different altitudinal sections of the hydro-fluctuation belt in Three Gorges Reservoir area, based on located observations. At the three altitudinal sections, the population density of C. dactylon was in the order of shallow water section (165-170 m elevation) > non-flooded section (above 172 m elevation) > deep water section (145-150 m elevation), the root diameter and root length were in the order of deep water section > shallow water section > non-flooded section, the total biomass, root biomass, stem biomass, leaf biomass, and stem biomass allocation ratio were in the order of the shallow water section > non-flooded section > deep water section, and the root biomass allocation ratio, leaf biomass allocation ratio, and underground biomass/aboveground biomass were in the order of deep water section > shallow water section > non-flooded section. The unique adaption strategies of C. dactylon to the flooding-drying habitat change in the shallow water section were the accelerated elongation growth and the increased stem biomass allocation, those in the deep water section were the increased node number of primary and secondary branches, increased number of the branches, and increased leaf biomass allocation, whereas the common strategies in the shallow and deep water sections were the accelerated root growth and the increased tillering and underground biomass allocation for preparing nutrition and energy for the rapid growth in terrestrial environment.

Soil-Water Balance (SWB) model estimates of soil-moisture variability and groundwater recharge in the South Platte watershed, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, A. M.; Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Ruybal, C. J.

2015-12-01

Unconventional energy production in semi-arid regions places additional stress on already over-allocated water systems. Production of shale gas and oil resources in northern Colorado has rapidly increased since 2010, and is expected to continue growing due to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. This unconventional energy production has implications for the availability of water in the South Platte watershed, where water demand for hydraulic fracturing of unconventional shale resources reached ~16,000 acre-feet in 2014. Groundwater resources are often exploited to meet water demands for unconventional energy production in regions like the South Platte basin, where surface water supply is limited and allocated across multiple uses. Since groundwater is often a supplement to surface water in times of drought and peak demand, variability in modeled recharge estimates can significantly impact projected availability. In the current work we used the Soil-Water Balance Model (SWB) to assess the variability in model estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) and soil-moisture conditions utilized to derive estimates of groundwater recharge. Using both point source and spatially distributed data, we compared modeled actual ET and soil-moisture derived from several potential ET methods, such as Thornthwaite-Mather, Jense-Haise, Turc, and Hargreaves-Samani, to historic soil moisture conditions obtained through sources including the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). In addition to a basin-scale analysis, we divided the South Platte watershed into sub-basins according to land cover to evaluate model capabilities of estimating soil-moisture parameters with variations in land cover and topography. Results ultimately allow improved prediction of groundwater recharge under future scenarios of climate and land cover change. This work also contributes to complementary subsurface groundwater modeling and decision support modeling in the South Platte.

A leader-follower-interactive method for regional water resources management with considering multiple water demands and eco-environmental constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yizhong; Lu, Hongwei; Li, Jing; Ren, Lixia; He, Li

2017-05-01

This study presents the mathematical formulation and implementations of a synergistic optimization framework based on an understanding of water availability and reliability together with the characteristics of multiple water demands. This framework simultaneously integrates a set of leader-followers-interactive objectives established by different decision makers during the synergistic optimization. The upper-level model (leader's one) determines the optimal pollutants discharge to satisfy the environmental target. The lower-level model (follower's one) accepts the dispatch requirement from the upper-level one and dominates the optimal water-allocation strategy to maximize economic benefits representing the regional authority. The complicated bi-level model significantly improves upon the conventional programming methods through the mutual influence and restriction between the upper- and lower-level decision processes, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple completing users. To solve the problem, a bi-level interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making process for measuring to what extent the constraints are met and the objective reaches its optima. The capabilities of the proposed model are illustrated through a real-world case study of water resources management system in the district of Fengtai located in Beijing, China. Feasible decisions in association with water resources allocation, wastewater emission and pollutants discharge would be sequentially generated for balancing the objectives subject to the given water-related constraints, which can enable Stakeholders to grasp the inherent conflicts and trade-offs between the environmental and economic interests. The performance of the developed bi-level model is enhanced by comparing with single-level models. Moreover, in consideration of the uncertainty in water demand and availability, sensitivity analysis and policy analysis are employed for identifying their impacts on the final decisions and improving the practical applications.

Studying strategic interaction under environmental and economic uncertainties among water users in the Zambezi River Basin - From descriptive analysis to institutional design for better transboundary management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, L.; Siegfried, T. U.; Bernauer, T.

2009-12-01

The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) is one of the largest freshwater catchments in Africa and worldwide. Consumptive water use in the ZRB is currently estimated at 15 - 20 percent of total runoff. This suggests many development possibilities, particularly for irrigated agriculture and hydropower production. The key drivers in the basin are population development on the demand side as well as uncertain impacts from climate change for supply. Development plans of the riparian countries suggest that consumptive water use might increase up to 40 percent of total runoff by 2025. This suggests that expanding water use in the Zambezi basin could become a source of disputes among the eight riparian countries. We study the surface water allocation in the basin by means of a couple hydrological-economic modeling approach. A conceptual lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model for the ZRB was constructed and calibrated on the best available runoff data for the basin. Water users are modeled based on an agent-based framework and implemented as distributed sequential decision makers that act in an uncertain environment. Given the current non-cooperative status quo, we use the stochastic optimization technique of reinforcement learning to model the individual agents’ behavior. Their goals include the maximization of a) their long-term reward as conditioned on the state of the multi-agent system and b) the immediate reward obtained from operational decisions of reservoirs and water diversions under their control. We feed a wide range of water demand drivers as well as climate change predictions into the model and assess agents’ responses and the resulting implications for runoff at key points in the water catchment, including Victoria Falls, Kariba reservoir, Kafue Gorge, and Cahora Bassa reservoir in the downstream. It will be shown that considerable benefits exist if the current non-cooperative regime is replaced by a basin-wide, coordinated allocation strategy that regulates water storage and allocation in this complex multi-reservoir river basin. Benefits increase along the river towards the downstream, which suggests the establishment of an upstream-downstream compensation approach. The latter considers tradeoffs from water and hydropower exchanges during respective seasons and locations of peak demand.

Systematic impact assessment on inter-basin water transfer projects of the Hanjiang River Basin in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian; Hong, Xingjun; Chang, Fi-John

2017-10-01

China's inter-basin water transfer projects have gained increasing attention in recent years. This study proposes an intelligent water allocation methodology for establishing optimal inter-basin water allocation schemes and assessing the impacts of water transfer projects on water-demanding sectors in the Hanjiang River Basin of China. We first analyze water demands for water allocation purpose, and then search optimal water allocation strategies for maximizing the water supply to water-demanding sectors and mitigating the negative impacts by using the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA), respectively. Lastly, the performance indexes of the water supply system are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: the AGA with adaptive crossover and mutation operators could increase the average annual water transfer from the Hanjiang River by 0.79 billion m3 (8.8%), the average annual water transfer from the Changjiang River by 0.18 billion m3 (6.5%), and the average annual hydropower generation by 0.49 billion kW h (5.4%) as well as reduce the average annual unmet water demand by 0.40 billion m3 (9.7%), as compared with the those of the SGA. We demonstrate that the proposed intelligent water allocation schemes can significantly mitigate the negative impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the reliability, vulnerability and resilience of water supply to the demanding sectors in water-supplying basins. This study has a direct bearing on more intelligent and effectual water allocation management under various scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects.

Inexact nonlinear improved fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for irrigation water management under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chenglong; Zhang, Fan; Guo, Shanshan; Liu, Xiao; Guo, Ping

2018-01-01

An inexact nonlinear mλ-measure fuzzy chance-constrained programming (INMFCCP) model is developed for irrigation water allocation under uncertainty. Techniques of inexact quadratic programming (IQP), mλ-measure, and fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP) are integrated into a general optimization framework. The INMFCCP model can deal with not only nonlinearities in the objective function, but also uncertainties presented as discrete intervals in the objective function, variables and left-hand side constraints and fuzziness in the right-hand side constraints. Moreover, this model improves upon the conventional fuzzy chance-constrained programming by introducing a linear combination of possibility measure and necessity measure with varying preference parameters. To demonstrate its applicability, the model is then applied to a case study in the middle reaches of Heihe River Basin, northwest China. An interval regression analysis method is used to obtain interval crop water production functions in the whole growth period under uncertainty. Therefore, more flexible solutions can be generated for optimal irrigation water allocation. The variation of results can be examined by giving different confidence levels and preference parameters. Besides, it can reflect interrelationships among system benefits, preference parameters, confidence levels and the corresponding risk levels. Comparison between interval crop water production functions and deterministic ones based on the developed INMFCCP model indicates that the former is capable of reflecting more complexities and uncertainties in practical application. These results can provide more reliable scientific basis for supporting irrigation water management in arid areas.

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed VWRS model will account for the blue water component of the system (water taken from the rivers and reservoirs) as well as the green water (soil water used by agriculture), and track water-dependent products and services (energy, mining, crops, and industrial products). The system dynamics approach is used as a simulation environment for constructing the VWRS model due to its ability to accommodate hydrological and non-hydrological variables in one modeling platform. A set of scenarios representing various levels of water availability, combined with a set of various priorities of water uses, will be considered and tested. The scenarios will be evaluated with regard to the overall value of water use. The findings will be used to develop water value-based allocation priorities and reservoir operating rules. This novel modeling tool and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying virtual and value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. In this paper, the first and tentative version of the VWRS model is presented and applied to the Saskatchewan portion of the SSRB. Various scenarios of changes of the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan will be considered and tested to validate the VWRS model.

Managing water quality under drought conditions in the Llobregat River Basin.

PubMed

Momblanch, Andrea; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Munné, Antoni; Manzano, Andreu; Arnau, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2015-01-15

The primary effects of droughts on river basins include both depleted quantity and quality of the available water resources, which can render water resources useless for human needs and simultaneously damage the environment. Isolated water quality analyses limit the action measures that can be proposed. Thus, an integrated evaluation of water management and quality is warranted. In this study, a methodology consisting of two coordinated models is used to combine aspects of water resource allocation and water quality assessment. Water management addresses water allocation issues by considering the storage, transport and consumption elements. Moreover, the water quality model generates time series of concentrations for several pollutants according to the water quality of the runoff and the demand discharges. These two modules are part of the AQUATOOL decision support system shell for water resource management. This tool facilitates the analysis of the effects of water management and quality alternatives and scenarios on the relevant variables in a river basin. This paper illustrates the development of an integrated model for the Llobregat River Basin. The analysis examines the drought from 2004 to 2008, which is an example of a period when the water system was quantitative and qualitatively stressed. The performed simulations encompass a wide variety of water management and water quality measures; the results provide data for making informed decisions. Moreover, the results demonstrated the importance of combining these measures depending on the evolution of a drought event and the state of the water resources system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing The Ecosystem Service Freshwater Production From An Integrated Water Resources Management Perspective. Case Study: The Tormes Water Resources System (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Momblanch, Andrea; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín; Solera, Abel

2014-05-01

The Ecosystem Services are defined as the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfil human life. A strongly related concept is the Integrated Water Resources Management. It is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems. From these definitions, it is clear that in order to cover so many water management and ecosystems related aspects the use of integrative models is increasingly necessary. In this study, we propose to link a hydrologic model and a water allocation model in order to assess the Freshwater Production as an Ecosystem Service in anthropised river basins. First, the hydrological model allows determining the volume of water generated by each sub-catchment; that is, the biophysical quantification of the service. This result shows the relevance of each sub-catchment as a source of freshwater and how this could change if the land uses are modified. On the other hand, the water management model allocates the available water resources among the different water uses. Then, it is possible to provide an economic value to the water resources through the use of demand curves, or other economic concepts. With this second model, we are able to obtain the economical quantification of the Ecosystem Service. Besides, the influence of water management and infrastructures on the service provision can be analysed. The methodology is applied to the Tormes Water Resources System, in Spain. The software used are EVALHID and SIMGES, for hydrological and management aspects, respectively. Both models are included in the Decision Support System Shell AQUATOOL for water resources planning and management. A scenario approach is presented to illustrate the potential of the methodology, including the current state and some intervention scenarios.

Options and Consequences: Water Banking/Leasing Issues Explored for the Rio Grande in Southern New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brookshire, D. S.; Coursey, D.; Dimint, A.; Tidwell, V.

2004-12-01

Since 1950, the demand for water has more than doubled in the United States. Historically, growing demands have been met by increasing reservoir capacity and through groundwater mining, often at the expense of environmental and cultural concerns. The future is expected to hold much the same. Demand for water will continue to increase particularly in response to the expanding urban sector, while growing concerns over the environment are prompting interest in allocating more water for in-stream uses. So, where will this water come from? Virtually all water supplies are allocated. Providing for new uses requires a reduction in the amount of water dedicated to existing uses. The water banking/leasing model is formulated within a system dynamics context using the object oriented commercial software package, Powersimä Studio 2003. System dynamics provides a unique mathematical framework for integrating the natural and social processes important to managing natural resources and can provide an interactive interface for engaging the public in the decision process. These system level models focus on capturing the broad structure of the system, specifically the feedback and time delays between interacting subsystems. The spatially aggregated models are computationally efficient allowing simulations to be conducted on a PC in a matter of seconds to minutes. By employing interactive interfaces, these models can be taken directly to the public or decision maker. To demonstrate the water banking/leasing model, application has been made to potential markets on the Rio Grande. Specifically, the model spans the reach between Elephant Butte Reservoir (central New Mexico) and the New Mexico/Texas state line. Primary sectors in the model include climate, surface and groundwater, riparian and aquatic habitat, watershed processes, water quality, water demand (residential, commercial, industrial, institution, and agricultural), economics, policy, and legal institutions. Within the model the basin is divided into four distinct but interacting reaches and a monthly time-step is employed. River operations and water demand trends have been calibrated to historical data.

Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse

2015-04-01

The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply.

PubMed

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-03-31

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems.

Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply

PubMed Central

Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

2018-01-01

As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems. PMID:29614749

Risk-based water resources planning: Coupling water allocation and water quality management under extreme droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortazavi-Naeini, M.; Bussi, G.; Hall, J. W.; Whitehead, P. G.

2016-12-01

The main aim of water companies is to have a reliable and safe water supply system. To fulfil their duty the water companies have to consider both water quality and quantity issues and challenges. Climate change and population growth will have an impact on water resources both in terms of available water and river water quality. Traditionally, a distinct separation between water quality and abstraction has existed. However, water quality can be a bottleneck in a system since water treatment works can only treat water if it meets certain standards. For instance, high turbidity and large phytoplankton content can increase sharply the cost of treatment or even make river water unfit for human consumption purposes. It is vital for water companies to be able to characterise the quantity and quality of water under extreme weather events and to consider the occurrence of eventual periods when water abstraction has to cease due to water quality constraints. This will give them opportunity to decide on water resource planning and potential changes to reduce the system failure risk. We present a risk-based approach for incorporating extreme events, based on future climate change scenarios from a large ensemble of climate model realisations, into integrated water resources model through combined use of water allocation (WATHNET) and water quality (INCA) models. The annual frequency of imposed restrictions on demand is considered as measure of reliability. We tested our approach on Thames region, in the UK, with 100 extreme events. The results show increase in frequency of imposed restrictions when water quality constraints were considered. This indicates importance of considering water quality issues in drought management plans.

The Watershed and River Systems Management Program: Decision Support for Water- and Environmental-Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leavesley, G.; Markstrom, S.; Frevert, D.; Fulp, T.; Zagona, E.; Viger, R.

2004-12-01

Increasing demands for limited fresh-water supplies, and increasing complexity of water-management issues, present the water-resource manager with the difficult task of achieving an equitable balance of water allocation among a diverse group of water users. The Watershed and River System Management Program (WARSMP) is a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) to develop and deploy a database-centered, decision-support system (DSS) to address these multi-objective, resource-management problems. The decision-support system couples the USGS Modular Modeling System (MMS) with the BOR RiverWare tools using a shared relational database. MMS is an integrated system of computer software that provides a research and operational framework to support the development and integration of a wide variety of hydrologic and ecosystem models, and their application to water- and ecosystem-resource management. RiverWare is an object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework developed to provide tools for evaluating and applying water-allocation and management strategies. The modeling capabilities of MMS and Riverware include simulating watershed runoff, reservoir inflows, and the impacts of resource-management decisions on municipal, agricultural, and industrial water users, environmental concerns, power generation, and recreational interests. Forecasts of future climatic conditions are a key component in the application of MMS models to resource-management decisions. Forecast methods applied in MMS include a modified version of the National Weather Service's Extended Streamflow Prediction Program (ESP) and statistical downscaling from atmospheric models. The WARSMP DSS is currently operational in the Gunnison River Basin, Colorado; Yakima River Basin, Washington; Rio Grande Basin in Colorado and New Mexico; and Truckee River Basin in California and Nevada.

Towards the assessment of climate change and human activities impacts on the water resources of the Ebro catchment (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milano, M.; Ruelland, D.; Dezetter, A.; Ardoin-Bardin, S.; Thivet, G.; Servat, E.

2012-04-01

Worldwide studies modelling the hydrological response to global changes have proven the Mediterranean area as one of the most vulnerable region to water crisis. It is characterised by limited and unequally distributed water resources, as well as by important development of its human activities. Since the late 1950s, water demand in the Mediterranean basin has doubled due to a significant expansion of irrigated land and urban areas, and has maintained on a constant upward curve. The Ebro catchment, third largest Mediterranean basin, is very representative of this context. Since the late 1970s, a negative trend in mean rainfall has been observed as well as an increase in mean temperature. Meanwhile, the Ebro River discharge has decreased by about 40%. However, climate alone cannot explain this downward trend. Another factor is the increase in water consumption for agricultural and domestic uses. Indeed, the Ebro catchment is a key element in the Spanish agricultural production with respectively 30% and 60% of the meat and fruit production of the country. Moreover, population has increased by 20% over the catchment since 1970 and the number of inhabitant doubles each summer due to tourism attraction. Finally, more than 250 storage dams have been built over the Ebro River for hydropower production and irrigation water supply purposes, hence regulating river discharge. In order to better understand the respective influence of climatic and anthropogenic pressures on the Ebro hydrological regime, an integrated water resources modelling framework was developed. This model is driven by water supplies, generated by a conceptual rainfall-runoff model and by a storage dam module that accounts for water demands and environmental flow requirements. Water demands were evaluated for the most water-demanding sector, i.e. irrigated agriculture (5 670 Hm3/year), and the domestic sector (252 Hm3/year), often defined as being of prior importance for water supply. A water allocation module has also been implemented in the model. The ability of water resources to satisfy the water demands is assessed by computing a water allocation index which depends on site priorities and supply preferences. This modelling framework was applied to eight sub-catchments, each one representative of typical climatic or water use conditions within the basin, over the 1971-1990 period. The results show the interest of integrated modelling to address water resources vulnerability. The hydrological response to climatic and anthropogenic variations witnesses the influence of both these pressures on water resources availability. Moreover, the water allocation index makes it possible to highlight the growing competition among users, especially during the summer season. The developed methodology hence provides us a more complete analysis to support decision-making compared to uncoupled analysis. This study is a first step towards evaluating future water resources availability and ability to satisfy water demands under climatic and anthropogenic pressures scenarios.

Stand density, tree social status and water stress influence allocation in height and diameter growth of Quercus petraea (Liebl.).

PubMed

Trouvé, Raphaël; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Seynave, Ingrid; Collet, Catherine; Lebourgeois, François

2015-10-01

Even-aged forest stands are competitive communities where competition for light gives advantages to tall individuals, thereby inducing a race for height. These same individuals must however balance this competitive advantage with height-related mechanical and hydraulic risks. These phenomena may induce variations in height-diameter growth relationships, with primary dependences on stand density and tree social status as proxies for competition pressure and access to light, and on availability of local environmental resources, including water. We aimed to investigate the effects of stand density, tree social status and water stress on the individual height-circumference growth allocation (Δh-Δc), in even-aged stands of Quercus petraea Liebl. (sessile oak). Within-stand Δc was used as surrogate for tree social status. We used an original long-term experimental plot network, set up in the species production area in France, and designed to explore stand dynamics on a maximum density gradient. Growth allocation was modelled statistically by relating the shape of the Δh-Δc relationship to stand density, stand age and water deficit. The shape of the Δh-Δc relationship shifted from linear with a moderate slope in open-grown stands to concave saturating with an initial steep slope in closed stands. Maximum height growth was found to follow a typical mono-modal response to stand age. In open-grown stands, increasing summer soil water deficit was found to decrease height growth relative to radial growth, suggesting hydraulic constraints on height growth. A similar pattern was found in closed stands, the magnitude of the effect however lowering from suppressed to dominant trees. We highlight the high phenotypic plasticity of growth in sessile oak trees that further adapt their allocation scheme to their environment. Stand density and tree social status were major drivers of growth allocation variations, while water stress had a detrimental effect on height in the Δh-Δc allocation. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A dynamic model of soil salinity and drainage generation in irrigated agriculture: A framework for policy analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinar, Ariel; Aillery, Marcel P.; Moore, Michael R.

1993-06-01

This paper presents a dynamic model of irrigated agriculture that accounts for drainage generation and salinity accumulation. Critical model relationships involving crop production, soil salinity, and irrigation drainage are based on newly estimated functions derived from lysimeter field tests. The model allocates land and water inputs over time based on an intertemporal profit maximization objective function and soil salinity accumulation process. The model is applied to conditions in the San Joaquin Valley of California, where environmental degradation from irrigation drainage has become a policy issue. Findings indicate that in the absence of regulation, drainage volumes increase over time before reaching a steady state as increased quantities of water are allocated to leaching soil salts. The model is used to evaluate alternative drainage abatement scenarios involving drainage quotas and taxes, water supply quotas and taxes, and irrigation technology subsidies. In our example, direct drainage policies are more cost-effective in reducing drainage than policies operating indirectly through surface water use, although differences in cost efficiency are relatively small. In some cases, efforts to control drainage may result in increased soil salinity accumulation, with implications for long-term cropland productivity. While policy adjustments may alter the direction and duration of convergence to a steady state, findings suggest that a dynamic model specification may not be necessary due to rapid convergence to a comon steady state under selected scenarios.

A System Dynamics Model to Improve Water Resources Allocation in the Conchos River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastelum, J. R.; Valdes, J. B.; Stewart, S.

2005-12-01

The Conchos river located in Chihuahua state on a semiarid region is the most important Mexican river contributing water deliveries to USA as established by the Water treaty of 1944 signed between Mexico and USA. Historically, Mexico has delivered to UNITED STATES 550 Hm3 (445,549.5 ACF) per year of water since the treaty was established, which is 25% above the yearly water volume Mexico is required to deliver. The Conchos river has contributed with 54% of the historic Mexican water treaty deliveries to the UNITED STATES, which represents the highest percentage of the 6 Mexican rivers considered on the water treaty. However, during drought situations the basin has proven to be vulnerable, for instance, because of the severe drought of the 90's, several cities in 1992 on Chihuahua state where declared disaster areas, and from 1992 to 2001 Mexico had accumulated a water treaty deficit of 2111.6 Hm3 (1,710,586 ACF). This has conduced to economic, social, and political difficulties in both countries. Because of the cited problematic and considering the poor understanding of the relationship between water supply and demand factors on the basin, a decision support system (DSS) has been developed aimed to improve the decision making process related with the water resources allocation process. This DSS has been created using System Dynamics (SD). It is a semi-distributed model and is running on monthly time step basis. For both the short and long term, three important water resources management strategies have been evaluated: several water allocation policies from reservoirs to water users; bulk water rights transfers inside and outside Irrigation Districts; and improvement of water distribution efficiencies. The model results have provided very useful regard to gain more quantitative understanding of the different strategies being implemented. They have also indicated that the different water resources alternatives change its degree of importance according to the different basin's circumstances such as weather conditions, institutional constraints, etc. The DSS is intended to be a simulation tool that facilitates the education and involvement of stakeholders and decision makers on the basin's water resources management process. Consequently, this will help to identify and to support alternatives or combination of them aimed to improve not only the basin's economy but also Mexican water treaty deliveries.

Confronting water in an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, David; Trottier, Julie

2010-03-01

SummaryTrans-boundary water agreements are usually conceived as allocation agreements. In other words, water is treated as if it were a pie to be divided among the riparian states. The treatment of water as if it were as immobile as land may be useful in the short term, but it is fundamentally flawed as a means to avoid conflict as well as to ensure efficient, equitable, and sustainable management of water over the long term. This article proposes to avoid quantitative allocations within international water agreements, whether they be presented as percentage or fixed allocations or whether or not accompanied by a periodic revision clause. It proposes instead an ongoing joint management structure that allows for continuous conflict resolution concerning water demands and uses in a manner that effectively de-nationalises water uses. As well, it builds on existing, functioning institutions that are already active over a variety of scalar levels. It disaggregates what is usually perceived as a national water demand into its component institutions and re-aggregates them within an international institutional context. Though this approach for building trans-boundary water agreements can prove useful in any geographical situation, this article uses the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a model. It proposes to respect the existing differences in the institutional management of water between the two entities and to reach four general objectives: economic efficiency, social and political equity, ecological sustainability, and the ability to implement the agreement in practice. The institutional design and proposed mechanisms follow five key principles for shared management: water allocations that are not fixed but variable over time; equality in rights and responsibilities; priority for demand management over supply management; continuous monitoring of water quality and quantity; and mediation among competing uses of fresh water. This institutional structure balances water quantity and water quality issues and economic and environmental goals in a de-securitised fashion. Though specifically applied to water shared by Israelis and Palestinians, the objectives, principles and institutional structure are relevant to any place in the world where trans-boundary water divides rather than unites two or more peoples.

Managing water and salinity with desalination, conveyance, conservation, waste-water treatment and reuse to counteract climate variability in Gaza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, D. E.; Aljuaidi, A. E.; Kaluarachchi, J. J.

2009-12-01

We include demands for water of different salinity concentrations as input parameters and decision variables in a regional hydro-economic optimization model. This specification includes separate demand functions for saline water. We then use stochastic non-linear programming to jointly identify the benefit maximizing set of infrastructure expansions, operational allocations, and use of different water quality types under climate variability. We present a detailed application for the Gaza Strip. The application considers building desalination and waste-water treatment plants and conveyance pipelines, initiating water conservation and leak reduction programs, plus allocating and transferring water of different qualities among agricultural, industrial, and urban sectors and among districts. Results show how to integrate a mix of supply enhancement, conservation, water quality improvement, and water quality management actions into a portfolio that can economically and efficiently respond to changes and uncertainties in surface and groundwater availability due to climate variability. We also show how to put drawn-down and saline Gaza aquifer water to more sustainable and economical use.

Impact analysis of government investment on water projects in the arid Gansu Province of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhan; Deng, Xiangzheng; Li, Xiubin; Zhou, Qing; Yan, Haiming

In this paper, we introduced three-nested Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function into a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. Through four levels of factor productivity, we constructed three nested production function of land use productivity in the conceptual modeling frameworks. The first level of factor productivity is generated by the basic value-added land. On the second level, factor productivity in each sector is generated by human activities that presents human intervention to the first level of factor productivity. On the third level of factor productivity, water allocation reshapes the non-linear structure of transaction among first and second levels. From the perspective of resource utilization, we examined the economic efficiency of water allocation. The scenario-based empirical analysis results show that the three-nested CES production function within CGE model is well-behaved to present the economy system of the case study area. Firstly, water scarcity harmed economic production. Government investment on water projects in Gansu thereby had impacts on economic outcomes. Secondly, huge governmental financing on water projects bring depreciation of present value of social welfare. Moreover, water use for environment adaptation pressures on water supply. The theoretical water price can be sharply increased due to the increasing costs of factor inputs. Thirdly, water use efficiency can be improved by water projects, typically can be benefited from the expansion of water-saving irrigation areas even in those expanding dry area in Gansu. Therefore, increasing governmental financing on water projects can depreciate present value of social welfare but benefit economic efficiency for future generation.

Valuation of irrigation water in South-western Iran using a hedonic pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shahsavari, Zahra

2011-12-01

Population growth, improved socioeconomic conditions, increased demand for various types of water use, and a reduction in water supply has created more competition for scarce water supplies leveling many countries. Efficient allocation of water supplies between different economic sectors is therefore very important. Water valuation is a useful tool to determine water price. Water pricing can play a major part in improving water allocation by encouraging users to conserve scarce water resources, and promoting improvements in productivity. We used a hedonic pricing method to reveal the implicit value of irrigation water by analyzing agricultural land values in farms under the Doroodzan dam in South-western Iran. The method was applied to farms in which irrigation water came from wells and canals. The availability of irrigation water was one of the most important factors influencing land prices. The value of irrigation water in the farms investigated was estimated to be 0.046 per cubic meter. The estimated price for water was clearly higher than the price farmers currently pay for water in the area of study. Efficient water pricing could help the sustainability of the water resources. Farmers must therefore be informed of the real value of irrigation water used on their land.

Simulated effects of alternative withdrawal strategies on groundwater flow in the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basins, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Daryll A.; Carleton, Glen B.; Buxton, Debra E.; Walker, Richard L.; Shourds, Jennifer L.; Reilly, Pamela A.

2012-01-01

Groundwater is essential for water supply and plays a critical role in maintaining the environmental health of freshwater and estuarine ecosystems in the Atlantic Coastal basins of New Jersey. The unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand are major sources of groundwater in the area, and each faces different water-supply concerns. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), conducted a study to simulate the effects of withdrawals in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and to evaluate potential scenarios. The study area encompasses Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Cape May, and Cumberland Counties. The major hydrogeologic units affecting water supply in the study area are the surficial Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, a thick diatomaceous clay confining unit in the upper part of Kirkwood Formation; the Rio Grande water-bearing zone; and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand of the Kirkwood Formation. Hydrogeologic data from 18 aquifer tests and specific capacity data from 230 wells were analyzed to provide horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers. Groundwater withdrawals are greatest from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, and 65 percent of the water is used for public supply. Groundwater withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand are about half those from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system. Ninety-five percent of the withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand is used for public supply. Data from six streamgaging stations and 51 low-flow partial record sites were used to estimate base flow in the area. Base flow ranges from 60 to 92 percent of streamflow. A groundwater flow model of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand was developed and calibrated using water-level data from 148 wells and base-flow data from 22 gaging or low-flow partial record stations. The Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system within the Great Egg Harbor River and the Mullica River Basins was simulated on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2006. An existing regional model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain was revised to provide boundary conditions for the Great Egg Harbor and Mullica River Basin model (referred to as the Great Egg-Mullica model). In the Great Egg-Mullica model, monthly groundwater recharge rates used in the model ranged from 10-15 inches per year in 2001 to 20-25 inches per year in 2005. The mean-absolute error for 10 of the 14 long-term hydrographs used in model calibration was less than 5 ft. Groundwater flow budgets for the Great Egg-Mullica model calibration periods, May 2005 and September 2006, and for the entire model calibration period 1998 to 2006, showed that nearly 70 percent of the water entering the Atlantic City 800-foot sand came from the horizontal connection with the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in updip areas. The groundwater flow model was used to simulate scenarios under three possible conditions: average 1998 to 2006 withdrawals (Average scenario), full-allocation withdrawals (Full Allocation scenario), and projected 2050-demand withdrawals (2050 Demand scenario). Withdrawals in the Full Allocation scenario are nearly twice the withdrawals from the Average scenario, primarily because of the potential for large agricultural withdrawals if all allocations are used. Withdrawals for the 2050 Demand scenario are about 50 percent greater than those for the Average scenario, primarily due to expected increases in withdrawals for public supply. Monthly base-flow depletion criteria were determined using the Low-Flow Margin method, currently under consideration by NJDEP, to estimate available water on an annual basis at the Hydrologic Unit Code 11 (HUC11) level and to determine whether a water-supply deficit exists. Simulations of various groundwater-withdrawal scenarios were made using the calibrated model, and results were compared with baseline conditions (no withdrawals) to determine where and when base-flow deficits may be occurring and may be expected to occur in the future. Scenarios were simulated to assess base-flow depletion that could occur from different groundwater-withdrawal situations. In the Average scenario, deficits occurred in 7 of the 14 subbasins. In the Full Allocation scenario, deficits occurred in 11 of the subbasins. In the 2050 Demand scenario, deficits occurred in 9 of the 14 subbasins. The largest deficits occurred in the Absecon Creek subbasin because the base-flow depletion criteria for this subbasin is small due to the surface-water diversions that are already occurring there and because existing groundwater withdrawals in the subbasin have resulted in base-flow depletion under current (1998-2006) conditions. Three adjusted scenarios, variations of the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios, were simulated; for the adjusted scenarios, the withdrawals were modified in stages with the intent to successively eliminate or minimize the base-flow deficits. Modifications included shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, implementing seasonal conjunctive use of shallow and deep aquifers, and specifying reductions in withdrawals within a HUC11 subbasin in deficit. The adjusted scenarios are intended to show the relative effectiveness of each of the three approaches in reducing the deficits. Most of the deficits under the Average, Full Allocation, and 2050 Demand scenarios were eliminated by reductions in withdrawals or allocations. Shifting withdrawals to a deeper part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system or seasonal conjunctive use did not eliminate deficits for any subbasin. Reductions in withdrawals accounted for more than 95 percent of the total reduction of deficits in all but one subbasin.

Functional Modelling, Scenario Development, and Options Analysis to Support Optimized Crewing for Damage Control. Phase 1: Functional Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-18

Minimize environmental impact. One of the chief ways in which the ship can harm the environment is by spilling untreated bilge water or fuel...containment): Fire suppression and fire containment can be performed in ways that minimize the amount of contaminated water that enters the bilges ...flood control can be performed to delay the need to return bilge water to the sea. Topological links: None. 3.18 – Resource allocation Description

Residential water demand model under block rate pricing: A case study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Yang, Z. F.

2009-05-01

In many cities, the inconsistency between water supply and water demand has become a critical problem because of deteriorating water shortage and increasing water demand. Uniform price of residential water cannot promote the efficient water allocation. In China, block water price will be put into practice in the future, but the outcome of such regulation measure is unpredictable without theory support. In this paper, the residential water is classified by the volume of water usage based on economic rules and block water is considered as different kinds of goods. A model based on extended linear expenditure system (ELES) is constructed to simulate the relationship between block water price and water demand, which provide theoretical support for the decision-makers. Finally, the proposed model is used to simulate residential water demand under block rate pricing in Beijing.

The influence of future electricity mix alternatives on southwestern US water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Averyt, K.

2013-12-01

A climate driven, water resource systems model of the southwestern US was used to explore the implications of growth, extended drought, and climate warming on the allocation of water among competing uses. The analysis focused on the water benefits from alternative thermoelectric generation mixes, but included other uses, namely irrigated agriculture, municipal indoor and outdoor use, and environmental and inter-state compact requirements. The model, referred to as WEAP-SW, was developed on the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform, and is scenario-based and forward projecting from 2008 to 2050. The scenario includes a southwest population that grows from about 55 million to more than 100 million, a prolonged dry period, and a long-term warming trend of 2 ° C by mid-century. In addition, the scenario assumes that water allocation under shortage conditions would prioritize thermoelectric, environmental, and inter-state compacts by shorting first irrigated agriculture, then municipal demands. We show that while thermoelectric cooling water consumption is relatively small compared with other uses, the physical realities and the legal and institutional structures of water use in the region mean that relatively small differences in regional water use across different electricity mix scenarios correspond with more substantial impacts on individual basins and water use sectors. At a region-wide level, these choices influence the buffer against further water stress afforded the region through its generous storage capacity in reservoirs.

Development of an Optimal Water Allocation Decision Tool for the Major Crops During the Water Deficit Period in the Southeast U.S.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paudel, Krishna P.; Limaye, Ashutosh; Hatch, Upton; Cruise, James; Musleh, Fuad

2005-01-01

We developed a dynamic model to optimize irrigation application in three major crops (corn, cotton and peanuts) grown in the Southeast USA. Water supply amount is generated from an engineering model which is then combined with economic models to find the optimal amount of irrigation water to apply on each crop field during the six critical water deficit weeks in summer. Results indicate that water is applied on the crop with the highest marginal value product of irrigation. Decision making tool such as the one developed here would help farmers and policy makers to find the maximum profitable solution when water shortage is a serious concern.

FOREST-BGC, A general model of forest ecosystem processes for regional applications. II. Dynamic carbon allocation and nitrogen budgets.

PubMed

Running, Steven W.; Gower, Stith T.

1991-01-01

A new version of the ecosystem process model FOREST-BGC is presented that uses stand water and nitrogen limitations to alter the leaf/root/stem carbon allocation fraction dynamically at each annual iteration. Water deficit is defined by integrating a daily soil water deficit fraction annually. Current nitrogen limitation is defined relative to a hypothetical optimum foliar N pool, computed as maximum leaf area index multiplied by maximum leaf nitrogen concentration. Decreasing availability of water or nitrogen, or both, reduces the leaf/root carbon partitioning ratio. Leaf and root N concentrations, and maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity are also redefined annually as functions of nitrogen availability. Test simulations for hypothetical coniferous forests were performed for Madison, WI and Missoula, MT, and showed simulated leaf area index ranging from 4.5 for a control stand at Missoula, to 11 for a fertilized stand at Madison, with Year 50 stem carbon biomasses of 31 and 128 Mg ha(-1), respectively. Total nitrogen incorporated into new tissue ranged from 34 kg ha(-1) year(-1) for the unfertilized Missoula stand, to 109 kg ha(-1) year(-1) for the fertilized Madison stand. The model successfully showed dynamic annual carbon partitioning controlled by water and nitrogen limitations.

Simulated effects of allocated and projected 2025 withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system, Gloucester and Northeastern Salem Counties, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Charles, Emmanuel; Nawyn, John P.; Voronin, Lois M.; Gordon, Alison D.

2011-01-01

Withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in New Jersey, which includes the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers, are the principal source of groundwater supply in northern Gloucester and northeastern Salem Counties in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. Water levels in these aquifers have declined in response to pumping. With increased population growth and development expected in Gloucester County and parts of Salem County over the next 2 decades (2005-2025), withdrawals from these aquifers also are expected to increase. A steady-state groundwater-flow model, developed to simulate flow in the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in northern Gloucester and northeastern Salem Counties, was calibrated to withdrawal conditions in 1998, when groundwater withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the model area were more than 10,100 Mgal/yr (million gallons per year). Withdrawals from water-purveyor wells accounted for about 63 percent of these withdrawals, and withdrawals from industrial self-supply wells accounted for about 32 percent. Withdrawals from agricultural-irrigation, commercial self-supply, and domestic self-supply wells accounted for the remaining 5 percent. Results of the 2000 baseline groundwater-flow simulation, incorporating average annual 1999-2001 groundwater withdrawals, indicate that the average simulated water levels in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers are 31, 27, and 30 feet below the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929 (NGVD 29), respectively, and the lowest simulated water levels are 77, 65, and 59 feet below NGVD 29, respectively. In the full-allocation scenario, the maximum State-permitted (allocated) groundwater withdrawals totaled 16,567 Mgal/yr, an increase of 72 percent from the 2000 baseline simulation. Results of the full-allocation simulation indicate that the average simulated water levels in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers are 49, 43, and 48 feet below NGVD 29, respectively, which are 18, 16, and 18 feet lower, respectively, than in the 2000 baseline simulation. The lowest simulated water levels are 156, 95, and 69 feet below NGVD 29, respectively, which are 79, 30, and 10 feet lower, respectively, than in the 2000 baseline simulation. Simulated net flow from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system to streams is 8,441 Mgal/yr in the 2000 baseline simulation but is 6,018 Mgal/yr in the full-allocation scenario, a decrease of 29 percent from the 2000 baseline simulation. Simulated net flow in the 2000 baseline simulation is 1,183 Mgal/yr from the aquifer system to the Delaware River but in the full-allocation scenario is 1,816 Mgal/yr from the river to the aquifer system. Four other simulations were conducted that incorporated full-allocation conditions at water-purveyor wells in Critical Area 2 but increased or decreased withdrawals at selected water-purveyor wells outside Critical Area 2 and agricultural-irrigation and industrial-self-supply wells in the study area. The results of the four simulations also indicate net flow from the Delaware River to the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system. A growth scenario was developed to simulate future withdrawals in 2025 estimated from population projections for municipalities in the Salem-Gloucester study area. Simulated withdrawals for this scenario totaled 10,261 Mgal/yr, an increase of 6 percent from the 2000 baseline simulation. This total includes about 25 Mgal/yr withdrawn from the Englishtown aquifer system for domestic self-supply. This scenario incorporated full-allocation withdrawals at water-purveyor wells in Critical Area 2, and increased withdrawals at water-purveyor wells outside Critical Area 2. Results of this simulation indicate that the average simulated water levels in the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifers are 32, 29, and 32 feet below NGVD 29, respectively, which are 1, 2, and

Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Sands, Ronald

We developed a modeling capability to understand how water is allocated within a river basin and examined present and future water allocations among agriculture, energy production, other human requirements, and ecological needs. Water is an essential natural resource needed for food and fiber production, household and industrial uses, energy production, transportation, tourism and recreation, and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change and population growth are anticipated to impose unprecedented pressure on water resources during this century. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researchers have pioneered the development of integrated assessment (IA) models for the analysis of energy and economicmore » systems under conditions of climate change. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort led to the development of a modeling capability to evaluate current and future water allocations between human requirements and ecosystem services. The Water Prototype Model (WPM) was built in STELLA®, a computer modeling package with a powerful interface that enables users to construct dynamic models to simulate and integrate many processes (biological, hydrological, economics, sociological). A 150,404-km2 basin in the United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest region served as the platform for the development of the WPM. About 60% of the study basin is in the state of Washington with the rest in Oregon. The Columbia River runs through the basin for 874 km, starting at the international border with Canada and ending (for the purpose of the simulation) at The Dalles dam. Water enters the basin through precipitation and from streamflows originating from the Columbia River at the international border with Canada, the Spokane River, and the Snake River. Water leaves the basin through evapotranspiration, consumptive uses (irrigation, livestock, domestic, commercial, mining, industrial, and off-stream power generation), and streamflow through The Dalles dam. Water also enters the Columbia River via runoff from land. The model runs on a monthly timescale to account for the impact of seasonal variations of climate, streamflows, and water uses. Data for the model prototype were obtained from national databases and ecosystem model results. The WPM can be run from three sources: 1) directly from STELLA, 2) with the isee Player®, or 3) the web version of WPM constructed with NetSim® software. When running any of these three versions, the user is presented a screen with a series of buttons, graphs, and a table. Two of the buttons provide the user with background and instructions on how to run the model. Currently, there are five types of scenarios that can be manipulated alone or in combination using the Sliding Input Devices: 1) interannual variability (e.g., El Niño), 2) climate change, 3) salmon policy, 4) future population, and 5) biodiesel production. Overall, the WPM captured the effects of streamflow conditions on hydropower production. Under La Niña conditions, more hydropower is available during all months of the year, with a substantially higher availability during spring and summer. Under El Niño conditions, hydropower would be reduced, with a total decline of 15% from normal weather conditions over the year. A policy of flow augmentation to facilitate the spring migration of smolts to the ocean would also reduce hydropower supply. Modeled hydropower generation was 23% greater than the 81 TWh reported in the 1995 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database. The modeling capability presented here contains the essential features to conduct basin-scale analyses of water allocation under current and future climates. Due to its underlying data structure iv and conceptual foundation, the WPM should be appropriate to conduct IA modeling at national and global scales.« less

Managing the rippling stream: decisionmaking in natural resource administration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doerksen, Harvey R.; Lamb, Berton L.

1979-01-01

This article addresses the conflict which exists within the water resources decisionmaking arena over the allocation of water for instream uses. The discussion reviews the literature on public administration regarding decisionmaking, and is based on research performed by the authors which synthesizes a model of decisionmaking. This model can be used as both a description of agency behavior, and as the basis for developing a prescription for strategy formulation.

Mapping Water Resources, Allocation and Consumption in the Mills River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodes, J.; Jeuland, M. A.; Barros, A. P.

2014-12-01

Mountain basins and the headwaters of river basins along the foothills of major mountain ranges are undergoing rapid environmental change due to urban development, land acquisition by investors, population increase, and climate change. Classical water infrastructure in these regions is primarily designed to meet human water demand associated with agriculture, tourism, and economic development. Often overlooked and ignored is the fundamental interdependence of human water demand, ecosystem water demand, water rights and allocation, and water supply. A truly sustainable system for water resources takes into account ecosystem demand along with human infrastructure and economic demand, as well as the feedbacks that exist between them. Allocation policies need to take into account basin resilience that is the amount of stress the system can handle under varying future scenarios. Changes in stress on the system can be anthropogenic in the form of population increase, land use change, economic development, or may be natural in the form of climate change and decrease in water supply due to changes in precipitation. Mapping the water rights, supply, and demands within the basin can help determine the resiliency and sustainability of the basin. Here, we present a coupled natural human system project based in the French Broad River Basin, in the Southern Appalachians. In the first phase of the project, we are developing and implementing a coupled hydro-economics modeling framework in the Mills River Basin (MRB), a tributary of the French Broad. The Mills River Basin was selected as the core basin for implementing a sustainable system of water allocation that is adaptive and reflects the interdependence of water dependent sectors. The headwaters of the Mills River are in the foothills of the Appalachians, and are currently under substantial land use land cover (LULC) change pressure for agricultural purposes. In this regard, the MRB is representative of similar headwater basins in regions of complex terrain undergoing similar pressures such as the Andes and Himalayas. First results of the project including a quantitative organigram mapping water availability, water consumption, and the relationships among water stakeholders within the basin will be presented.

A management and optimisation model for water supply planning in water deficit areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinos-Senante, María; Hernández-Sancho, Francesc; Mocholí-Arce, Manuel; Sala-Garrido, Ramón

2014-07-01

The integrated water resources management approach has proven to be a suitable option for efficient, equitable and sustainable water management. In water-poor regions experiencing acute and/or chronic shortages, optimisation techniques are a useful tool for supporting the decision process of water allocation. In order to maximise the value of water use, an optimisation model was developed which involves multiple supply sources (conventional and non-conventional) and multiple users. Penalties, representing monetary losses in the event of an unfulfilled water demand, have been incorporated into the objective function. This model represents a novel approach which considers water distribution efficiency and the physical connections between water supply and demand points. Subsequent empirical testing using data from a Spanish Mediterranean river basin demonstrated the usefulness of the global optimisation model to solve existing water imbalances at the river basin level.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

2017-09-01

This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to 141.4 acre-1 or 55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty.

PubMed

Li, Man; Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W

2017-09-01

This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority-as an indicator of farmers' risk-bearing ability-on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right-truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to $141.4 acre -1 or $55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority-based water sharing mechanism.

Irrigation, risk aversion, and water right priority under water supply uncertainty

PubMed Central

Xu, Wenchao; Rosegrant, Mark W.

2017-01-01

Abstract This paper explores the impacts of a water right's allocative priority—as an indicator of farmers' risk‐bearing ability—on land irrigation under water supply uncertainty. We develop and use an economic model to simulate farmers' land irrigation decision and associated economic returns in eastern Idaho. Results indicate that the optimal acreage of land irrigated increases with water right priority when hydroclimate risk exhibits a negatively skewed or right‐truncated distribution. Simulation results suggest that prior appropriation enables senior water rights holders to allocate a higher proportion of their land to irrigation, 6 times as much as junior rights holders do, creating a gap in the annual expected net revenue reaching up to $141.4 acre−1 or $55,800 per farm between the two groups. The optimal irrigated acreage, expected net revenue, and shadow value of a water right's priority are subject to substantial changes under a changing climate in the future, where temporal variation in water supply risks significantly affects the profitability of agricultural land use under the priority‐based water sharing mechanism. PMID:29200529

Future Water Management in the South Platte River Basin: Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing, Population, Agriculture, and Climate Change in a Semi-Arid Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Anderson, A. M.; Read, L.

2015-12-01

In semi-arid basins across the world, the gap between water supply and demand is growing due to climate change, population growth, and shifts in agriculture and unconventional energy development. Water conservation efforts among residential and industrial water users, recycling and reuse techniques and innovative regulatory frameworks for water management strive to mitigate this gap, however, the extent of these strategies are often difficult to quantify and not included in modeling water allocations. Decision support systems (DSS) are purposeful for supporting water managers in making informed decisions when competing demands create the need to optimize water allocation between sectors. One region of particular interest is the semi-arid region of the South Platte River basin in northeastern Colorado, where anthropogenic and climatic effects are expected to increase the gap between water supply and demand in the near future. Specifically, water use in the South Platte is impacted by several high-intensity activities, including unconventional energy development, i.e. hydraulic fracturing, and large withdrawals for agriculture; these demands are in addition to a projected population increase of 100% by 2050. The current work describes the development of a DSS for the South Platte River basin, using the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP) to explore scenarios of how variation in future water use in the energy, agriculture, and municipal sectors will impact water allocation decisions. Detailed data collected on oil and gas water use in the Niobrara shale play will be utilized to predict future sector use. We also employ downscaled climate projections for the region to quantify the potential range of water availability in the basin under each scenario, and observe whether or not, and to what extent, climate may impact management decisions at the basin level.

Development of a coupled model of a distributed hydrological model and a rice growth model for optimizing irrigation schedule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsujimoto, Kumiko; Homma, Koki; Koike, Toshio; Ohta, Tetsu

2013-04-01

A coupled model of a distributed hydrological model and a rice growth model was developed in this study. The distributed hydrological model used in this study is the Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM) developed by Wang et al. (2009). This model includes a modified SiB2 (Simple Biosphere Model, Sellers et al., 1996) and the Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model (GBHM) and thus it can physically calculate both water and energy fluxes. The rice growth model used in this study is the Simulation Model for Rice-Weather relations (SIMRIW) - rainfed developed by Homma et al. (2009). This is an updated version of the original SIMRIW (Horie et al., 1987) and can calculate rice growth by considering the yield reduction due to water stress. The purpose of the coupling is the integration of hydrology and crop science to develop a tool to support decision making 1) for determining the necessary agricultural water resources and 2) for allocating limited water resources to various sectors. The efficient water use and optimal water allocation in the agricultural sector are necessary to balance supply and demand of limited water resources. In addition, variations in available soil moisture are the main reasons of variations in rice yield. In our model, soil moisture and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) are calculated inside SIMRIW-rainfed so that these variables can be simulated dynamically and more precisely based on the rice than the more general calculations is the original WEB-DHM. At the same time by coupling SIMRIW-rainfed with WEB-DHM, lateral flow of soil water, increases in soil moisture and reduction of river discharge due to the irrigation, and its effects on the rice growth can be calculated. Agricultural information such as planting date, rice cultivar, fertilization amount are given in a fully distributed manner. The coupled model was validated using LAI and soil moisture in a small basin in western Cambodia (Sangker River Basin). This basin is mostly rainfed paddy so that irrigation scheme was firstly switched off. Several simulations with varying irrigation scheme were performed to determine the optimal irrigation schedule in this basin.

Total maximum allocated load calculation of nitrogen pollutants by linking a 3D biogeochemical-hydrodynamic model with a programming model in Bohai Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiquan; Li, Keqiang; Ding, Dongsheng; Li, Yan; Liang, Shengkang; Li, Yanbin; Su, Ying; Wang, Xiulin

2015-12-01

The equal percent removal (EPR) method, in which pollutant reduction ratio was set as the same in all administrative regions, failed to satisfy the requirement for water quality improvement in the Bohai Sea. Such requirement was imposed by the developed Coastal Pollution Total Load Control Management. The total maximum allocated load (TMAL) of nitrogen pollutants in the sea-sink source regions (SSRs) around the Bohai Rim, which is the maximum pollutant load of every outlet under the limitation of water quality criteria, was estimated by optimization-simulation method (OSM) combined with loop approximation calculation. In OSM, water quality is simulated using a water quality model and pollutant load is calculated with a programming model. The effect of changes in pollutant loads on TMAL was discussed. Results showed that the TMAL of nitrogen pollutants in 34 SSRs was 1.49×105 ton/year. The highest TMAL was observed in summer, whereas the lowest in winter. TMAL was also higher in the Bohai Strait and central Bohai Sea and lower in the inner area of the Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay. In loop approximation calculation, the TMAL obtained was considered satisfactory for water quality criteria as fluctuation of concentration response matrix with pollutant loads was eliminated. Results of numerical experiment further showed that water quality improved faster and were more evident under TMAL input than that when using the EPR method

Optimal plant nitrogen use improves model representation of vegetation response to elevated CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, Silvia; Kern, Melanie; Engel, Jan; Zaehle, Sönke

2017-04-01

Existing global vegetation models often cannot accurately represent observed ecosystem behaviour under transient conditions such as elevated atmospheric CO2, a problem that can be attributed to an inflexibility in model representation of plant responses. Plant optimality concepts have been proposed as a solution to this problem as they offer a way to represent plastic plant responses in complex models. Here we present a novel, next generation vegetation model which includes optimal nitrogen allocation to and within the canopy as well as optimal biomass allocation between above- and belowground components in response to nutrient and water availability. The underlying hypothesis is that plants adjust their use of nitrogen in response to environmental conditions and nutrient availability in order to maximise biomass growth. We show that for two FACE (Free Air CO2 enrichment) experiments, the Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest sites, the model can better predict vegetation responses over the duration of the experiment when optimal processes are included. Specifically, under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration as well as increased biomass allocation to fine roots, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry predict a quick onset of N limitation.Existing global vegetation models often cannot accurately represent observed ecosystem behaviour under transient conditions such as elevated atmospheric CO2, a problem that can be attributed to an inflexibility in model representation of plant responses. Plant optimality concepts have been proposed as a solution to this problem as they offer a way to represent plastic plant responses in complex models. Here we present a novel, next generation vegetation model which includes optimal nitrogen allocation to and within the canopy as well as optimal biomass allocation between above- and belowground components in response to nutrient and water availability. The underlying hypothesis is that plants adjust their use of nitrogen in response to environmental conditions and nutrient availability in order to maximise biomass growth. We show that for two FACE (Free Air CO2 enrichment) experiments, the Duke forest and Oak Ridge forest sites, the model can better predict vegetation responses over the duration of the experiment when optimal processes are included. Specifically, under elevated CO2 conditions, the model predicts a lower optimal leaf N concentration as well as increased biomass allocation to fine roots, which, combined with a redistribution of leaf N between the Rubisco and chlorophyll components, leads to a continued NPP response under high CO2, where models with a fixed canopy stoichiometry predict a quick onset of N limitation.

Optimizing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources with stochastic dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2014-05-01

Optimal management of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been attempted with different algorithms in the literature. In this study, a hydro-economic modelling approach to optimize conjunctive use of scarce surface water and groundwater resources under uncertainty is presented. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocations and water curtailments. Dynamic allocation problems with inclusion of groundwater resources proved to be more complex to solve with SDP than pure surface water allocation problems due to head-dependent pumping costs. These dynamic pumping costs strongly affect the total costs and can lead to non-convexity of the future cost function. The water user groups (agriculture, industry, domestic) are characterized by inelastic demands and fixed water allocation and water supply curtailment costs. As in traditional SDP approaches, one step-ahead sub-problems are solved to find the optimal management at any time knowing the inflow scenario and reservoir/aquifer storage levels. These non-linear sub-problems are solved using a genetic algorithm (GA) that minimizes the sum of the immediate and future costs for given surface water reservoir and groundwater aquifer end storages. The immediate cost is found by solving a simple linear allocation sub-problem, and the future costs are assessed by interpolation in the total cost matrix from the following time step. Total costs for all stages, reservoir states, and inflow scenarios are used as future costs to drive a forward moving simulation under uncertain water availability. The use of a GA to solve the sub-problems is computationally more costly than a traditional SDP approach with linearly interpolated future costs. However, in a two-reservoir system the future cost function would have to be represented by a set of planes, and strict convexity in both the surface water and groundwater dimension cannot be maintained. The optimization framework based on the GA is still computationally feasible and represents a clean and customizable method. The method has been applied to the Ziya River basin, China. The basin is located on the North China Plain and is subject to severe water scarcity, which includes surface water droughts and groundwater over-pumping. The head-dependent groundwater pumping costs will enable assessment of the long-term effects of increased electricity prices on the groundwater pumping. The coupled optimization framework is used to assess realistic alternative development scenarios for the basin. In particular the potential for using electricity pricing policies to reach sustainable groundwater pumping is investigated.

Legal institutions for the allocation of water and their impact on coal conversion operations in Kentucky. Research report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ausness, R.C.; Callahan, G.W.; Dills, S.W.

1976-08-01

Coal conversion plants require large quantities of water for cooling purposes and for use as a raw material. Three types of water allocation are presently used in the United States: riparianism, prior appropriation, and administrative permit systems. Kentucky presently has such a system of administrative allocation and this is described in the report. (GRA)

Application of the system of environmental economic accounting for water SEEAW to the Spanish part of the Duero basin: Lessons learned.

PubMed

Vicente, D J; Rodríguez-Sinobas, L; Garrote, L; Sánchez, R

2016-09-01

The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water (SEEA-W) consists of an agreed international framework for organizing hydrological and economic information in a coherent and consistent manner. The methodology yields to the SEEA-W physical tables focusing on the quantitative assessment of the stocks and their changes in a river basin during the accounting period. For that purpose, the information on the abstraction and water discharge is linked with the environment water stocks, which assesses how current levels of abstraction and discharge affect such water stocks. This study presents the methodology and results to fill out the SEEAW tables for asset accounts on the Spanish Duero basin. Duero is a transboundary river between Spain and Portugal where 80% of its basin area (78,860km(2)) runs into the Spanish territory. The Spanish part is divided in five zones and 13 management systems. The methodology applied the three models used by the Spanish Water Authorities for the planning and allocation of water resources in Spain: 'SIMPA' model (rainfall-runoff model), 'ASTER' model (hydro-meteorological model related to snow processes) and 'SIMGES' model (water management simulation model). The required information was collected with the support from the Duero River basin Authority and the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture. Special care was paid to issues such as: inter-annual variability, the selection of spatial and temporal scale, seasonality, disaggregation of human abstractions into use's type, and transboundary agreements. The results highlighted some drawbacks in the SEEAW methodology for the Duero basin. However, the developed balances are a valuable tool to support the decisions of the Spanish Duero basin Authority on the management and allocation of water in the basin and in the transboundary area with Portugal. Finally, the paper outlines some recommendations for future work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Proceedings of the National Conference on Climate Change and Water Resources Management (1st) Held in Albuquerque, New Mexico on November 4-7, 1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-12-01

mean water temperatures are not much in excess of 25° C . From the global climate model predictions summarized in Figures 4 and 5, all the models suggest...that the mean diurnal water temperatures could exceed 25° C under high-summer conditions, with water temperatures rising to around 30’ C or more for some...allocation, C = 41,500 acre-feet, a 20 percent increase in the mean inflow produces what we consider a priori to be an unacceptably high flood

Adressing optimality principles in DGVMs: Dynamics of Carbon allocation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan

2017-04-01

DGVMs are designed to reproduce and quantify ecosystem processes. Based on plant functions or species specific parameter sets, the energy, carbon, nitrogen and water cycles of different ecosystems are assessed. These models have been proven to be important tools to investigate ecosystem fluxes as they are derived by plant, site and environmental factors. The general model approach assumes steady state conditions and constant model parameters. Both assumptions, however, are wrong, since: (i) No given ecosystem ever is at steady state! (ii) Ecosystems have the capability to adapt to changes in growth conditions, e.g. via changes in allocation patterns! This presentation will give examples how these general failures within current DGVMs may be addressed.

Adressing optimality principles in DGVMs: Dynamics of Carbon allocation changes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, S.

2016-12-01

DGVMs are designed to reproduce and quantify ecosystem processes. Based on plant functions or species specific parameter sets, the energy, carbon, nitrogen and water cycles of different ecosystems are assessed. These models have been proven to be important tools to investigate ecosystem fluxes as they are derived by plant, site and environmental factors. The general model approach assumes steady state conditions and constant model parameters. Both assumptions, however, are wrong. Any given ecosystem never is at steady state! Ecosystems have the capability to adapt to changes in growth conditions, e.g. via changes in allocation patterns! This presentation will give examples how these general failures within current DGVMs may be addressed.

Simulation of proposed increases in ground-water withdrawals on the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, New Jersey coastal plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Daryll A.

2006-01-01

The confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand and the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system (surficial aquifer) are major sources of water for southeastern New Jersey. Because of recent concerns about streamflow depletion resulting from ground-water withdrawals and the potential ecological effects on stream habitat in the area, the focus on future withdrawals has been shifted away from the surficial aquifer to the confined Atlantic City 800-foot sand until the effects of increased withdrawals from the surficial aquifer can be investigated. A study was conducted to evaluate the effects of seven proposed increases in ground-water withdrawals from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand and the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system on the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. The proposed withdrawals are increases above the 2004 allocated rates (full allocation). The effects of full-allocation ground-water withdrawals and the cumulative effect of withdrawals for each of seven proposed increases in withdrawals were simulated using three previously published ground-water flow models: the New Jersey Coastal Plain Regional Aquifer System Analysis model, the Coastal Plain Optimization model, and a model of the Atlantic City 800-foot sand in Atlantic County, New Jersey. These models were used to simulate changes in water levels, the source supplying the increased ground-water flow, and the effects on saltwater movement towards production wells in Cape May County as a result of the proposed increased withdrawals at proposed or existing wells. The results of the simulations represent the effects of the proposed increase from full-allocation withdrawals to an additional 1,825 Mgal/yr (million gallons per year) from the Atlantic City 800-foot sand and an additional 1,045 Mgal/yr from the deep part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system near the updip limit of the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Most of the simulated decline in water levels in Atlantic County occurred as the result of the proposed increased withdrawals simulated for the New Jersey American Water Company wells. Simulated declines in water levels in Cape May were caused mainly by the simulated increased withdrawals for the Cape May City Desalination Plant wells. The additional water to supply the proposed increases in the scenarios was primarily horizontal flow from the unconfined updip part of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, which accounted for 63 percent of the inflow, and flow from the overlying Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system into the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, which supplied 27 percent of the additional water. Because the withdrawals were made from the confined aquifer and the deeper part of the unconfined aquifer, the effect on streamflow was substantially less than would have occurred had the withdrawals been made directly from the shallower parts of the unconfined aquifer. The travel times from the 250-mg/L isochlor to production wells in Stone Harbor were longer as a result of all the additional withdrawals. For some scenarios, withdrawals in Atlantic County caused the saltwater to move slightly faster towards the production wells. These effects were offset by the increase in travel time caused by the potential increased withdrawals simulated for the Cape May City desalination wells, which either diverted water towards the desalination wells or increased the travel time towards production wells.

Relative source allocation of TDI to drinking water for derivation of a criterion for chloroform: a Monte-Carlo and multi-exposure assessment.

PubMed

Niizuma, Shun; Matsui, Yoshihiko; Ohno, Koichi; Itoh, Sadahiko; Matsushita, Taku; Shirasaki, Nobutaka

2013-10-01

Drinking water quality standard (DWQS) criteria for chemicals for which there is a threshold for toxicity are derived by allocating a fraction of tolerable daily intake (TDI) to exposure from drinking water. We conducted physiologically based pharmacokinetic model simulations for chloroform and have proposed an equation for total oral-equivalent potential intake via three routes (oral ingestion, inhalation, and dermal exposures), the biologically effective doses of which were converted to oral-equivalent potential intakes. The probability distributions of total oral-equivalent potential intake in Japanese people were estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. Even when the chloroform concentration in drinking water equaled the current DWQS criterion, there was sufficient margin between the intake and the TDI: the probability that the intake exceeded TDI was below 0.1%. If a criterion that the 95th percentile estimate equals the TDI is regarded as both providing protection to highly exposed persons and leaving a reasonable margin of exposure relative to the TDI, then the chloroform drinking water criterion could be a concentration of 0.11mg/L. This implies a daily intake equal to 34% of the TDI allocated to the oral intake (2L/d) of drinking water for typical adults. For the highly exposed persons, inhalation exposure via evaporation from water contributed 53% of the total intake, whereas dermal absorption contributed only 3%. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How should leaf area, sapwood area and stomatal conductance vary with tree height to maximize growth?

PubMed

Buckley, Thomas N; Roberts, David W

2006-02-01

Conventional wisdom holds that the ratio of leaf area to sapwood area (L/S) should decline during height (H) growth to maintain hydraulic homeostasis and prevent stomatal conductance (g(s)) from declining. We contend that L/S should increase with H based on a numerical simulation, a mathematical analysis and a conceptual argument: (1) numerical simulation--a tree growth model, DESPOT (Deducing Emergent Structure and Physiology Of Trees), in which carbon (C) allocation is regulated to maximize C gain, predicts L/S should increase during most of H growth; (2) mathematical analysis--the formal criterion for optimal C allocation, applied to a simplified analytical model of whole tree carbon-water balance, predicts L/S should increase with H if leaf-level gas exchange parameters including g(s) are conserved; and (3) conceptual argument--photosynthesis is limited by several substitutable resources (chiefly nitrogen (N), water and light) and H growth increases the C cost of water transport but not necessarily of N and light capture, so if the goal is to maximize C gain or growth, allocation should shift in favor of increasing photosynthetic capacity and irradiance, rather than sustaining g(s). Although many data are consistent with the prediction that L/S should decline with H, many others are not, and we discuss possible reasons for these discrepancies.

Measuring demand for flat water recreation using a two-stage/disequilibrium travel cost model with adjustment for overdispersion and self-selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKean, John R.; Johnson, Donn; Taylor, R. Garth

2003-04-01

An alternate travel cost model is applied to an on-site sample to estimate the value of flat water recreation on the impounded lower Snake River. Four contiguous reservoirs would be eliminated if the dams are breached to protect endangered Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. The empirical method applies truncated negative binomial regression with adjustment for endogenous stratification. The two-stage decision model assumes that recreationists allocate their time among work and leisure prior to deciding among consumer goods. The allocation of time and money among goods in the second stage is conditional on the predetermined work time and income. The second stage is a disequilibrium labor market which also applies if employers set work hours or if recreationists are not in the labor force. When work time is either predetermined, fixed by contract, or nonexistent, recreationists must consider separate prices and budgets for time and money.

Quantifying Changes in Accessible Water in the Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castle, S.; Thomas, B.; Reager, J. T.; Swenson, S. C.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) in the western United States is heavily managed yet remains one of the most over-allocated rivers in the world providing water across seven US states and Mexico. Future water management strategies in the CRB have employed land surface models to forecast discharges; such approaches have focused on discharge estimates to meet allocation requirements yet ignore groundwater abstractions to meet water demands. In this analysis, we illustrate the impact of changes in accessible water, which we define as the conjunctive use of both surface water reservoir storage and groundwater storage, using remote sensing observations to explore sustainable water management strategies in the CRB. We employ high resolution Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite data to detect changes in reservoir storage in the two largest reservoirs within the CRB, Lakes Mead and Powell, and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) terrestrial water storage anomalies to isolate changes in basin-wide groundwater storage in the Upper and Lower CRB from October 2003 to December 2012. Our approach quantifies reservoir and groundwater storage within the CRB using remote sensing to provide new information to water managers to sustainably and conjunctively manage accessible water.

River and Reservoir Operations Model, Truckee River basin, California and Nevada, 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berris, Steven N.; Hess, Glen W.; Bohman, Larry R.

2001-01-01

The demand for all uses of water in the Truckee River Basin, California and Nevada, commonly is greater than can be supplied. Storage reservoirs in the system have a maximum effective total capacity equivalent to less than two years of average river flows, so longer-term droughts can result in substantial water-supply shortages for irrigation and municipal users and may stress fish and wildlife ecosystems. Title II of Public Law (P.L.) 101-618, the Truckee?Carson?Pyramid Lake Water Rights Settlement Act of 1990, provides a foundation for negotiating and developing operating criteria, known as the Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA), to balance interstate and interbasin allocation of water rights among the many interests competing for water from the Truckee River. In addition to TROA, the Truckee River Water Quality Settlement Agreement (WQSA), signed in 1996, provides for acquisition of water rights to resolve water-quality problems during low flows along the Truckee River in Nevada. Efficient execution of many of the planning, management, or environmental assessment requirements of TROA and WQSA will require detailed water-resources data coupled with sound analytical tools. Analytical modeling tools constructed and evaluated with such data could help assess effects of alternative operational scenarios related to reservoir and river operations, water-rights transfers, and changes in irrigation practices. The Truckee?Carson Program of the U.S. Geological Survey, to support U.S. Department of the Interior implementation of P.L. 101-618, is developing a modeling system to support efficient water-resources planning, management, and allocation. The daily operations model documented herein is a part of the modeling system that includes a database management program, a graphical user interface program, and a program with modules that simulate river/reservoir operations and a variety of hydrologic processes. The operations module is capable of simulating lake/ reservoir and river operations including diversion of Truckee River water to the Truckee Canal for transport to the Carson River Basin. In addition to the operations and streamflow-routing modules, the modeling system is structured to allow integration of other modules, such as water-quality and precipitation-runoff modules. The USGS Truckee River Basin operations model was designed to provide simulations that allow comparison of the effects of alternative management practices or allocations on streamflow or reservoir storages in the Truckee River Basin over long periods of time. Because the model was not intended to reproduce historical streamflow or reservoir storage values, a traditional calibration that includes statistical comparisons of observed and simulated values would be problematic with this model and database. This report describes a chronology and background of decrees, agreements, and laws that affect Truckee River operational practices; the construction of the Truckee River daily operations model; the simulation of Truckee River Basin operations, both current and proposed under the draft TROA and WQSA; and suggested model improvements and limitations. The daily operations model uses Hydrological Simulation Program?FORTRAN (HSPF) to simulate flow-routing and reservoir and river operations. The operations model simulates reservoir and river operations that govern streamflow in the Truckee River from Lake Tahoe to Pyramid Lake, including diversions through the Truckee Canal to Lahontan Reservoir in the Carson River Basin. A general overview is provided of daily operations and their simulation. Supplemental information that documents the extremely complex operating rules simulated by the model is available.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Allocation in Karkheh River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davtalabsabet, R.; Madani, K.; Massah, A.; Farajzadeh, M.

2013-12-01

Rahman Davtalab1, 2, Kaveh Madani2, Alireza Massah3, Manouchehr Farajzadeh1 1Department of Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran 2Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA 3Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abureyhan , University of Tehran, Iran Abstract Karkheh river basin, with an area of 50,000 km2 is located, in southwest Iran. This basin supplies water for major agricultural activities and large hydropower production in five Iranian provinces with the total population of four million people. Due to development and population growth, this large trans-boundary basin is incapable of meeting the water demands of the five riparian provinces, causing water allocation conflicts in the region. The situation has been exacerbated by the frequent droughts and is expected to worsen further by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability and allocation in this basin. First, outputs of several General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios for different future time horizons are statistically downscaled. Then multiple river flow time series (RFTS) are generated by feeding GCM outputs into a HEC-HMS model, using the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA). Given a wide range of variations in GCM outputs and the resulting RFTS, the Ward's method is used to identity different RFTS clusters. Clustering helps with increasing the ability of the modeler to test a range of possible future conditions while reducing the redundancies in input data. Karkheh river basin's ability to meet the growing demand under decreasing flows is evaluated for each RFTS cluster representative. Results indicate that Karkheh river flow might decrease by 50% toward the end of the century. This would decrease the reliability of agricultural water deliveries from 78-95% to less than 50%. While currently hydropower dams can only use 50% of their generation capacity for electricity production due to limited water availability, this figure would reduce to less than 30% with climate change. Several adaptation strategies are suggested based on the findings to minimize the economic losses of climate change in this developing basin.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to support catchment-scale water resources management in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Claus; Pereira-Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2013-04-01

A hydro-economic modelling approach is used to optimize reservoir management at river basin level. We demonstrate the potential of this integrated approach on the Ziya River basin, a complex basin on the North China Plain south-east of Beijing. The area is subject to severe water scarcity due to low and extremely seasonal precipitation, and the intense agricultural production is highly dependent on irrigation. Large reservoirs provide water storage for dry months while groundwater and the external South-to-North Water Transfer Project are alternative sources of water. An optimization model based on stochastic dynamic programming has been developed. The objective function is to minimize the total cost of supplying water to the users, while satisfying minimum ecosystem flow constraints. Each user group (agriculture, domestic and industry) is characterized by fixed demands, fixed water allocation costs for the different water sources (surface water, groundwater and external water) and fixed costs of water supply curtailment. The multiple reservoirs in the basin are aggregated into a single reservoir to reduce the dimensions of decisions. Water availability is estimated using a hydrological model. The hydrological model is based on the Budyko framework and is forced with 51 years of observed daily rainfall and temperature data. 23 years of observed discharge from an in-situ station located downstream a remote mountainous catchment is used for model calibration. Runoff serial correlation is described by a Markov chain that is used to generate monthly runoff scenarios to the reservoir. The optimal costs at a given reservoir state and stage were calculated as the minimum sum of immediate and future costs. Based on the total costs for all states and stages, water value tables were generated which contain the marginal value of stored water as a function of the month, the inflow state and the reservoir state. The water value tables are used to guide allocation decisions in simulation mode. The performance of the operation rules based on water value tables was evaluated. The approach was used to assess the performance of alternative development scenarios and infrastructure projects successfully in the case study region.

Sensitivities in a game theoretic approach to analyze allocation of water resources in the Nagobo basin, Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossler, T. H. H. H.; Caers, J.; Lakshmi, V.; Harris, J. M.

2016-12-01

Changing weather patterns, such as shorter duration of rainfall have made water sourcesunreliable for local farmers in the Nagbo basin located in Northern Ghana. Farmers are thereforestarting to use groundwater as a secondary source (and sometimes primary source) of water fortheir needs. Groundwater will therefore be most likely subject to considerable stress in the nearfuture with longer dry spells and increasing water demand from users with different interests.Strategies must be adopted to optimally allocate water between the various stakeholders in anuncertain environment. Game Theory (GT) provides a framework for analyzing watermanagement in the Nagobo Basin. GT has recently gained attention in analyzing the impact androle of stakeholders in water resources management but the hydrological and hydrogeologicalmodels fail to account for the numerous data sources and leading uncertainties of thehydrogeological cycle. In this work, we describe by means of a synthetic model a situation in theNagobo basin with a 2-players game, considering both cooperation and non-cooperation. Ahydrological model of the basin is built using the different data available (surface and subsurface).We are interested in quantifying the impact of the uncertainty of the model parameters on thegame, affecting both player's strategies and the equilibrium. In particular, the stochastic nature insupply (recharge of the aquifer) and the uncertain nature of the subsurface (externalities) are areaof focus. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out and these results will be presented as well asthe outcome of the different games.

Role of Sectoral Transformation in Evolution of Water Management in Agricultural Catchments: A Socio-hydrologic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roobavannan, Mahendran; Kandasamy, Jaya; Pande, Saket; Vigneswaran, Saravanamuthu; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2017-04-01

Sustainable development in society depends on an understanding of how communities interact with the natural system and how they co-evolve in time. Increasingly the livelihood and future viability of agricultural communities are being threatened by competition for water between food production and the environment. This study focused on this water-agriculture-environment nexus as it played out in the Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia, and how co-evolution of society and water management occurred. Over 100 years of agricultural development the Murrumbidgee Basin has experienced a "pendulum swing" in terms of water allocation entirely to agriculture production at the expense of the environment, and eventually to the reallocation of water back to the environment. This pendulum swing has been attributed to a combination of increased national wealth, reduced share of agriculture in the national GDP, and to increased environment awareness of environmental degradation. Environment awareness depends on the structure of the economy, education, and socio-politic structure. As the basin economy develops accompanied by sectoral transformation, basin production becomes increasingly dependent on the industry sector. A loss of economic dependence on agriculture leads to a lower emphasis on the need to allocate water to agriculture. Society's value and preference turns around and is motivated towards the protection of the ecosystem. We hypothesize that in the competition of water use between economic livelihood and environment well being of society, economic diversification pushed the balance in towards the environment. In order to test this hypothesis, we developed a coupled socio-hydrologic model, which explicitly considers bi-directional feedbacks between human and water systems to explore how the competition for water played out in the Murrumbidgee. We demonstrate this by linking the dynamics of the economy of the whole (agriculture and industry) to community sentiment for the environment and to water allocation. The model captured the changing value and preference, threshold dynamics, changing water management and showed the importance of sectoral transformation in water management. The modeling showed that as agriculture became constrained by water reallocation to restore ecosystem health, the community coped with the transition through the sectoral transformation to the industry sector and out-migration of basin residents. The dynamics observed in the Murrumbidgee River basin highlights how the transformation of the basin economy influenced sustainable development, mitigated adverse economic outcomes and enabled society to transition with the implementation of water management decisions that increasingly favored the environment.

Sustainable Irrigation Allocation Model for Dry and Wet Periods using Reservoir Storage and Inflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surianarayanan, S.; Suribabu, C. R.; Ramakrishnan, K.

2017-07-01

The dry period agriculture is inevitable both for the farmers for their earning, and for the soil for its fertility by crop-rotation. In tropical countries like INDIA, dry period agriculture becomes difficult because of less (or) no rain fall. Hence a simple water balancing model for irrigation scheduling, using the measure “Volumetric Reliability” is prepared in this paper, with the storage and inflow of a reservoir both for the dry and wet periods. The case-study is done for a reservoir in INDIA with thirty one years of hydrological data(from 1982 to 2012). The objective of this paper is to prepare a simple water balance model taking 10 days periods of demand and supply for ID crop(Irrigated Dry crop, ground nut) with usage of volumetric reliability concept for the periods of deficiency and adoption of less water requirement crops to reduce the water-stress during critical periods of crop growth, and finally arrive at a feasible allocation schedule for the success of agriculture and the yield throughout the year both for wet and dry crops with the available storage on the start of irrigation for a particular year. The reservoir is divided for storages such as full, deficient and critical storages. The starting storage for the dry period from January is used after adequate allocation for wet crops, the quantity for riparian rights and for drinking water, for the sustainability. By the water-balancing, the time-series for thirty one years, it is found that for twenty two years the demand for the ID crops is satisfied with the storage in the reservoir, and in the remaining years of deficient inflows, for three years (1986,1996,2004)the demand is managed by using the safe reliability factor for demand which can nullify the deficit in demand for the whole supply period. But it is genuine to assure that the reduction in the amount of water for each 10 days periods should not exceed the survival limit of the crop. Necessary soil-moisture must be ensured in the crop in its root zone.. A safe volumetric reliability factor of 0.75 is taken in this attempt to extend the success of dry period agriculture. The soil moisture balance in the clayey loam soil due to continuous irrigation can manage the deficiency, so that the soil-water does not go below the wilting point but must be checked with the soil-moisture sensors. The methods to reduce the evaporation from the soil, such as usage of drip irrigation and the mulching, which can reduce the crop water requirements in comparison with the conventional irrigation which is being followed at present in the spot of the case-study is suggested. In addition to these methods less water requirement crops like flowers, vegetables having less crop-period and provision of windbreak to reduce evapo-transpiration rates and other efficient methods of water management can make success of dry period agriculture even in the years critical storage level in the reservoir. The rainfall is not taken in this model which if in a year with ample quantity can be used for pre-sowing and for managing the water-stress. Augmentation of water with ground water, percolation tank can boost the level of success of agriculture. As the irrigation water allocation for the whole year, particularly for the ID crops is prepared for the full, deficient and critical storages, this paper can help to achieve sustainable growth of crops throughout the year.

The interrelationship of households economics activities of upland rice farmers in rain-fed farming in Ponjong Sub-district, Gunungkidul District, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rini, W. D. E.; Harisudin, M.; Supriyadi; Rahayu, E. S.

2018-03-01

Gunungkidul is one of the regencies at Yogyakarta, Indonesia which is 90% occupied by dry land, and thus vulnerable to climate change impact. Since dryland relies on water only from rain to meet crop water requirement, part of land management is rainfed. This condition encourages farmers to make the right decision regarding their additional income to meet household needs. Under the limited land resources, farmers decided to plant upland rice once or twice a year. The aim of the study is to analyze the interrelationship of households economics activities of upland rice farmers in rain-fed farming based on production, labor allocation, and consumption. The research method is descriptive analysis, with research site Ponjong sub-district, determined by the purposive method. Sampling method using proportional random sampling. Economics model was determined by using simultaneous equation model, with 2 SLS estimation method. The results showed that the household economics model of upland rice farmers in the rainfed land can be explained by using farmers household model and there is a linkage between production, labor allocation, and consumption.

Systems Modeling to Improve River, Riparian, and Wetland Habitat Quality and Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alafifi, A.

2016-12-01

The suitability of watershed habitat to support the livelihood of its biota primarily depends on managing flow. Ecological restoration requires finding opportunities to reallocate available water in a watershed to increase ecological benefits and maintain other beneficial uses. We present the Watershed Area of Suitable Habitat (WASH) systems model that recommends reservoir releases, streamflows, and water allocations throughout a watershed to maximize the ecosystem habitat quality. WASH embeds and aggregates area-weighted metrics for aquatic, floodplain, and wetland habitat components as an ecosystem objective to maximize, while maintaining water deliveries for domestic and agricultural uses, mass balance, and available budget for restoration actions. The metrics add spatial and temporal functionality and area coverage to traditional habitat quality indexes and can accommodate multiple species of concern. We apply the WASH model to the Utah portion of the Bear River watershed which includes 8 demand sites, 5 reservoirs and 37 nodes between the Utah-Idaho state line and the Great Salt Lake. We recommend water allocations to improve current conservation efforts and show tradeoffs between human and ecosystem uses of water. WASH results are displayed on an open-source web mapping application that allows stakeholders to access, visualize, and interact with the model data and results and compare current and model-recommended operations. Results show that the Bear River is largely developed and appropriated for human water uses. However, increasing reservoirs winter and early spring releases and minimizing late spring spill volumes can significantly improve habitat quality without harming agricultural or urban water users. The spatial and temporal reallocation of spring spills to environmental uses creates additional 70 thousand acres of suitable habitat in the watershed without harming human users. WASH also quantifies the potential environmental gains and losses from conserving water and from the impact of climate change on head flows and thus helps planning for the future of our water resources and ecosystem.

Forage-based dairying in a water-limited future: use of models to investigate farming system adaptation in southern Australia.

PubMed

Chapman, D F; Dassanayake, K; Hill, J O; Cullen, B R; Lane, N

2012-07-01

The irrigated dairy industry in southern Australia has experienced significant restrictions in irrigation water allocations since 2005, consistent with climate change impact predictions for the region. Simulation models of pasture growth (DairyMod), crop yield (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator, APSIM), and dairy system management and production (UDDER) were used in combination to investigate a range of forage options that may be capable of sustaining dairy business profitability under restricted water-allocation scenarios in northern Victoria, Australia. A total of 23 scenarios were simulated and compared with a base farm system (100% of historical water allocations, grazed perennial ryegrass pasture with supplements; estimated operating surplus $A2,615/ha at a milk price of $A4.14/kg of milk solids). Nine simulations explored the response of the base farm to changes in stocking rate or the implementation of a double cropping rotation on 30% of farm area, or both. Five simulations explored the extreme scenario of dairying without any irrigation water. Two general responses to water restrictions were investigated in a further 9 simulations. Annual ryegrass grazed pasture, complemented by a double cropping rotation (maize grown in summer for silage, followed by either brassica forage crop and annual ryegrass for silage in winter and spring) on 30% of farm area, led to an estimated operating surplus of $A1746/ha at the same stocking rate as the base farm when calving was moved to autumn (instead of late winter, as in the base system). Estimated total irrigation water use was 2.7ML/ha compared with 5.4ML/ha for the base system. Summer-dormant perennial grass plus double cropping (30% of farm area) lifted operating surplus by a further $A100/ha if associated with autumn calving (estimated total irrigation water use 3.1ML/ha). Large shifts in the forage base of dairy farms could sustain profitability in the face of lower, and fluctuating, water allocations. However, changes in other strategic management policies, notably calving date and stocking rate, would be required, and these systems would be more complex to manage. The adaptation scenarios that resulted in the highest estimated operating surplus were those where at least 10 t of pasture or crop DM was grazed directly by cows per hectare per year, resulting in grazed pasture intake of at least 2 t of DM/cow, and at least 60% of all homegrown feed that was consumed was grazed directly. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Constraints and potential for efficient inter-sectoral water allocations in Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashaigili, Japhet J.; Kadigi, Reuben M. J.; Sokile, Charles S.; Mahoo, Henry F.

In many sub-Saharan African countries, there are conflicts over water uses in most river basins. In Tanzania, conflicts are becoming alarming and are exacerbated by increasing water demands due to rapid population growth and expanding economic activities. This paper reviews the major constraints and potential for achieving efficient systems of allocating water resources to different uses and users in Tanzania. The following constraints are identified: (a) the lack of active community involvement in management of water resources, (b) conflicting institutions and weak institutional capacities both in terms of regulations and protection of interests of the poor, (c) the lack of data and information to inform policy and strategies for balanced water allocation, and (d) inadequate funds for operation, maintenance and expansion of water supply systems. Despite these constraints, there are also opportunities for improving water allocation and management systems in the country. These include: the available reserve of both surface and groundwater resources, which remain unexploited; high demand for water services; a high potential for investing in the water sector; and availability of basic infrastructure and elements of institutional framework that can be improved. The paper recommends the use of combined variants of water allocation devices which (a) meet different water requirements and ensure desirable multiple-use outcomes, (b) facilitate the classification of water resources in terms of desired environmental protection levels, (c) allow reforms in water utilization to achieve equity and meet changing social and economic priorities, (d) facilitate the development of effective local institutions, (e) put in place the legal system that assigns rights to water resources and describes how those rights may be transferred, (f) enforce the rights and punish infringements on those rights, and (g) use cost-effective pricing systems to ensure that payment for water uses cover development, operational and management costs.

A negotiation support system for disputes between Iraq and Turkey over the Tigris-Euphrates basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagonari, Fabio; Rossi, Claudio

2014-06-01

This paper describes a flexible prototype negotiation support system (NSS), to be used in a participatory context, based on the negotiation setting that was suggested by Turkey: bilateral negotiations between Turkey and Iraq, annual analysis, the assumption that Iraq and Syria have no inherent water rights, differences in water entitlements or needs are neglected, analysis restricted to the Tigris-Euphrates basin, current irrigation technologies in Turkey and Iraq, and negotiations on water quantity and quality that account for national dam construction plans. The analysis is based on all principles of the 1997 UN Convention that are recognised by Turkey: net benefits defined at a basin level, equitable use, non-significant harm, maintenance of water quality. The goal is to achieve a balance of interests among the parties that combines analysis of the quantity and quality of water and the net benefits. The negotiation outcomes arise from simulated dynamic interactions between the parties. We demonstrate an application of the NSS based on plausible and reasonable, but tentative, data to provide insights into water allocation rules, side-payments, water requirements of the two parties, and cooperation. Allocations should meet Iraqi non-significant harm and equitable use constraints and allocate the remaining water to Turkey for agricultural use in the feasible negotiation scenario, whereas allocations should meet Turkish maximum agricultural water demands and allocate the remaining water to Iraq for agricultural use in the unlikely cooperation scenario.

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

LANDSCAPE ASSESSMENT TOOLS FOR WATERSHED CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

A combination of process-based, empirical and statistical models has been developed to assist states in their efforts to assess water quality, locate impairments over large areas, and calculate TMDL allocations. By synthesizing outputs from a number of these tools, LIPS demonstr...

Water balance analysis for efficient water allocation in agriculture. A case study: Balta Brailei, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitu, Zenaida; Villani, Giulia; Tomei, Fausto; Minciuna, Marian; Aldea, Adrian; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Trifu, Cristina; Neagu, Dumitru

2017-04-01

Balta Brailei is one of the largest agriculture area in the Danube floodplain, located in SE of Romania. An impressive irrigation system, that covered about 53.500 ha and transferred water from the Danube River, was carried out in the period 1960-1980. Even if the water resources for agriculture in this area cover in most of the cases the volumes required by irrigation water users, the irrigation infrastructure issues as the position of the pumping stations against the river levels hinder the use of the water during low flows periods. An efficient optimization of water allocation in agriculture could avoid periods with water deficit in the irrigation systems. Hydrological processes are essentials in describing the mass and energy exchanges in the atmosphere-plant-soil system. Furthermore, the hydrological regime in this area is very dynamic with many feedback mechanisms between the various parts of the surface and subsurface water regimes. Agricultural crops depend on capillary rise from the shallow groundwater table and irrigation. For an effective optimization of irrigation water in Balta Brailei, we propose to analyse the water balance taking into consideration the water movement into the root zone and the influence of the Danube river, irrigation channel system and the shallow aquifer by combining the soil water balance model CRITERIA and GMS hydrogeological model. CRITERIA model is used for simulating water movement into the soil, while GMS model is used for simulating the shallow groundwater level variation. The understanding of the complex feedbacks between atmosphere, crops and the various parts of the surface and subsurface water regimes in the Balta Brailei will bring more insights for predicting crop water need and water resources for irrigation and it will represent the basis for implementing Moses Platform in this specific area. Moses Platform is a GIS based system devoted to water procurement and management agencies to facilitate planning of irrigation water resources. This work is financed by the European Union's H2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 642258 (Moses Project).

Desalination as Groundwater Conservation: The Cost of Protecting Cultural and Environmental Resources in Chile's Region II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, E. C.; Cristi, O.; Libecap, G. D.

2012-12-01

There is a substantial body of evidence that groundwater overdraft is occurring worldwide. Economists argue that the cause of this overdraft is the open-access nature of the resource, which results in a "tragedy of the commons." Sustainable water management requires that some institution control the resource to limit this overdraft by reducing water extraction. This reduction creates scarcity and requires a method of rationing. The economically efficient outcome occurs when the lowest value uses of water are eliminated. This allocation, though, may have undesirable social consequences, such as the loss of small-scale farming, and political ramifications that make such an allocation unpopular to implement. This paper explores the economic cost of leaving water in low-value uses. The policy we explore is a moratorium on voluntary water sales to mining firms to protect the groundwater resource in northern Chile. This policy has accelerated the use of expensive desalinated water, whose cost is primarily driven by its heavy use of carbon-based electricity. Chile has a strong system of water property rights that economists argue ration water in a way that leads to the efficient allocation through water markets. This paper first explores the potential inefficiency of a water market when groundwater and surface water are linked, as well as when different users vary in their intensity of use. This theoretical background provides a framework for determining the economically efficient allocation of water and the losses associated with the moratorium in northern Chile. The policy does protect some environmental and cultural public goods, which potentially offset some or all of this cost. We provide a perspective on the magnitude of these public goods but do not attempt to value them explicitly. Instead, we demonstrate what their value must be so that the moratorium policy has a cost-to-benefit ratio of one. While the estimate of lost income from inefficiency is the main focus of the empirical work, the theoretical development provides an important perspective into groundwater management and the important role of understanding the physical system in water marketing. Worldwide, subsidized and scarce water is allocated to farmers for social and political reasons. The losses from this type of allocation are often ignored or marginalized. The Chilean case demonstrates that the losses due to economically inefficient allocation are real, because the alternative is greater consumption of other resources (fossil fuels in this case), not conservation. The Chilean case also demonstrates the difficulty of adequately defining water rights for efficient markets due to the physical properties of hydrologic systems. Because groundwater and surface water systems are linked and water is partially recycled, water markets may over allocate water to consumptive users or those with preferable extraction locations. This paper provides a theoretical exposition of how water rights that fail incorporate important properties of the physical system may lead to inefficient water markets.

Urban water infrastructure optimization to reduce environmental impacts and costs.

PubMed

Lim, Seong-Rin; Suh, Sangwon; Kim, Jung-Hoon; Park, Hung Suck

2010-01-01

Urban water planning and policy have been focusing on environmentally benign and economically viable water management. The objective of this study is to develop a mathematical model to integrate and optimize urban water infrastructures for supply-side planning and policy: freshwater resources and treated wastewater are allocated to various water demand categories in order to reduce contaminants in the influents supplied for drinking water, and to reduce consumption of the water resources imported from the regions beyond a city boundary. A case study is performed to validate the proposed model. An optimal urban water system of a metropolitan city is calculated on the basis of the model and compared to the existing water system. The integration and optimization decrease (i) average concentrations of the influents supplied for drinking water, which can improve human health and hygiene; (ii) total consumption of water resources, as well as electricity, reducing overall environmental impacts; (iii) life cycle cost; and (iv) water resource dependency on other regions, improving regional water security. This model contributes to sustainable urban water planning and policy. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation and optimization model for irrigation planning and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Sheng-Feng; Liu, Chen-Wuing

2003-10-01

A simulation and optimization model was developed and applied to an irrigated area in Delta, Utah to optimize the economic benefit, simulate the water demand, and search the related crop area percentages with specified water supply and planted area constraints. The user interface model begins with the weather generation submodel, which produces daily weather data, which is based on long-term monthly average and standard deviation data from Delta, Utah. To simulate the daily crop water demand and relative crop yield for seven crops in two command areas, the information provided by this submodel was applied to the on-farm irrigation scheduling submodel. Furthermore, to optimize the project benefit by searching for the best allocation of planted crop areas given the constraints of projected water supply, the results were employed in the genetic algorithm submodel. Optimal planning for the 394·6-ha area of the Delta irrigation project is projected to produce the maximum economic benefit. That is, projected profit equals US$113 826 and projected water demand equals 3·03 × 106 m3. Also, area percentages of crops within UCA#2 command area are 70·1%, 19% and 10·9% for alfalfa, barley and corn, respectively, and within UCA#4 command area are 41·5%, 38·9%, 14·4% and 5·2% for alfalfa, barley, corn and wheat, respectively. As this model can plan irrigation application depths and allocate crop areas for optimal economic benefit, it can thus be applied to many irrigation projects. Copyright

Multi-objective models of waste load allocation toward a sustainable reuse of drainage water in irrigation.

PubMed

Allam, Ayman; Tawfik, Ahmed; Yoshimura, Chihiro; Fleifle, Amr

2016-06-01

The present study proposes a waste load allocation (WLA) framework for a sustainable quality management of agricultural drainage water (ADW). Two multi-objective models, namely, abatement-performance and abatement-equity-performance, were developed through the integration of a water quality model (QAUL2Kw) and a genetic algorithm, by considering (1) the total waste load abatement, and (2) the inequity among waste dischargers. For successfully accomplishing modeling tasks, we developed a comprehensive overall performance measure (E wla ) reflecting possible violations of Egyptian standards for ADW reuse in irrigation. This methodology was applied to the Gharbia drain in the Nile Delta, Egypt, during both summer and winter seasons of 2012. Abatement-performance modeling results for a target of E wla = 100 % corresponded to the abatement ratio of the dischargers ranging from 20.7 to 75.6 % and 29.5 to 78.5 % in summer and in winter, respectively, alongside highly shifting inequity values. Abatement-equity-performance modeling results for a target of E wla = 90 % unraveled the necessity of increasing treatment efforts in three out of five dischargers during summer, and four out of five in winter. The trade-off curves obtained from WLA models proved their reliability in selecting appropriate WLA procedures as a function of budget constraints, principles of social equity, and desired overall performance level. Hence, the proposed framework of methodologies is of great importance to decision makers working toward a sustainable reuse of the ADW in irrigation.

Trading the Economic Value of Unsatisfied Municipal Water Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telfah, Dua'a. B.; Minciardi, Riccardo; Roth, Giorgio

2018-06-01

Modelling and optimization techniques for water resources allocation are proposed to identify the economic value of the unsatisfied municipal water demand against demands emerging from other sectors. While this is always an important step in integrated water resource management perspective, it became crucial for water scarce Countries. In fact, since the competition for the resource is high, they are in crucial need to trade values which will help them in satisfying their policies and needs. In this framework, hydro-economic, social equity and environmental constraints need to be satisfied. In the present study, a hydro-economic decision model based on optimization schemes has been developed for water resources allocation, that enable the evaluation of the economic cost of a deficiency in fulfilling the municipal demand. Moreover, the model enables efficient water resources management, satisfying the demand and proposing additional water resources options. The formulated model is designed to maximize the demand satisfaction and minimize water production cost subject to system priorities, preferences and constraints. The demand priorities are defined based on the effect of demand dissatisfaction, while hydrogeological and physical characteristics of the resources are embedded as constraints in the optimization problem. The application to the City of Amman is presented. Amman is the Capital City of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, a Country located in the south-eastern area of the Mediterranean, on the East Bank of the Jordan River. The main challenge for Jordan, that threat the development and prosperity of all sectors, is the extreme water scarcity. In fact, Jordan is classified as semi-arid to arid region with limited financial resources and unprecedented population growth. While the easy solution directly goes to the simple but expensive approach to cover the demand, case study results show that the proposed model plays a major role in providing directions to decision makers to orient their policies and strategies in order to achieve sustainability of scarce water resources, satisfaction of the minimum required demand as well as financial sustainability. In addition, results map out national needs and priorities that are crucial in understanding and controlling the complexity of Jordan's water sector, mainly for the city of Amman.

The role of price and enforcement in water allocation: insights from Game Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza Filho, F.; Lall, U.; Porto, R.

2007-12-01

As many countries are moving towards water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The uncertainty associated with water that is available at a particular diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the behavior of water users as to their application for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to sustain the enforcement effort. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use, and parameters that define the users and the agency's economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of "Law and Economics", with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed.

Biosensing for the protection of water quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Firth, B.K.; Cieslek, P.R.

1990-04-01

This paper reports that Weyerhaeuser's Rothschild sulfite pulp and paper facility produces approximately 150 a.d. tons/day of pulp and 350 tons/day of fine paper. The wastewater receives secondary treatment in an activated sludge system for removing solids and reducing the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD{sub 5}). The BOD{sub 5} is reduced nearly 98% across the secondary system. The final effluent is discharged into the Wisconsin River. After extensive field work, the Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources (DNR) developed the Qual III model to represent the assimilative capacity of the Wisconsin River. Using both the Qual III model and guidelines set forthmore » in Section 208 of the Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 (PL 92-500), the agency developed allocations restricting the discharge of BOD{sub 5} wasteload. This paper reports that as a result of the DNR modeling, the Rothschild facility has been under a variable restriction on BOD{sub 5} since 1983. The restrictive period is May through October, with daily BOD{sub 5} discharge limits of between 1360 and 7711 kg/day. Discharge limits change daily based on the receiving water flow, the water temperature, and the allocation period. Industrial companies that discharge effluent to the Wisconsin River system have a serious problem when the river flow is moderated to low and their final effluent BOD{sub 5} loadings begin to approach the wasteload limits.« less

Economic total maximum daily load for watershed-based pollutant trading.

PubMed

Zaidi, A Z; deMonsabert, S M

2015-04-01

Water quality trading (WQT) is supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) under the framework of its total maximum daily load (TMDL) program. An innovative approach is presented in this paper that proposes post-TMDL trade by calculating pollutant rights for each pollutant source within a watershed. Several water quality trading programs are currently operating in the USA with an objective to achieve overall pollutant reduction impacts that are equivalent or better than TMDL scenarios. These programs use trading ratios for establishing water quality equivalence among pollutant reductions. The inbuilt uncertainty in modeling the effects of pollutants in a watershed from both the point and nonpoint sources on receiving waterbodies makes WQT very difficult. A higher trading ratio carries with it increased mitigation costs, but cannot ensure the attainment of the required water quality with certainty. The selection of an applicable trading ratio, therefore, is not a simple process. The proposed approach uses an Economic TMDL optimization model that determines an economic pollutant reduction scenario that can be compared with actual TMDL allocations to calculate selling/purchasing rights for each contributing source. The methodology is presented using the established TMDLs for the bacteria (fecal coliform) impaired Muddy Creek subwatershed WAR1 in Rockingham County, Virginia, USA. Case study results show that an environmentally and economically superior trading scenario can be realized by using Economic TMDL model or any similar model that considers the cost of TMDL allocations.

Embedding an evolving agricultural system within a water resources planning model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, C.; Joyce, B.; Purkey, D.; Dale, L.; Mehta, V.

2008-12-01

The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system is a comprehensive, fully integrated water basin analysis tool. It is a simulation model that includes a robust and flexible representation of water demands from all sectors and flexible, programmable operating rules for infrastructure elements such as reservoirs, canals, and hydropower projects. Additionally, it has watershed rainfall-runoff modeling capabilities that allow all portions of the water infrastructure and demand to be dynamically nested within the underlying hydrological processes. WEAP also allows for linking with other models to provide feedback mechanisms whereby the management regime can be altered to respond to changing water supply conditions. This study presents an application wherein the year-to-year cropping decisions of farmers in California's Central Valley are reactive to changes in water supply conditions. To capture this dynamic, we have included in WEAP a link to an agricultural economics model (the Central Valley Production Model) that relates cropping decisions to water supply conditions (surface water allocations and depth to groundwater) and economic considerations (cost of electricity) at the time of planting. This linked model was used to evaluate changes in water supply and demand in the context of projected climate change over the next century.

How reframing a water management issue across scales and levels impacts on perceptions of justice and injustice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrick, M. J.; Syme, G. J.; Horwitz, P.

2014-11-01

Social justice is a key outcome of water allocation, management and governance. It is commonly expressed in water policies and strategies in terms of achieving equitable distribution of water resources. In complex multi-level systems just and unjust outcomes can result from the same water allocation decision. In some cases a just outcome at one level may cause an injustice at another level for the same or a different set of stakeholders. The manner in which a water management issue is framed and reframed across different levels within a system influences stakeholder perceptions of whether a water allocation decision is just or unjust, which in turn influences the successful adoption and implementation of such a decision. This paper utilises a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia to illustrate how reframing a water management issue across multiple scales and levels can help understand stakeholders' perceptions of justice and injustice. In this case study two scales are explored, an institutional and an organisational scale; each comprising levels at the federal, basin, state and region. The water management issue of domestic and stock dams was tracked through the various scales and levels and illustrated how reframing an issue at different levels can influence the analysis of just or equitable outcomes. The case study highlights the need to treat justice in water allocation as an ever evolving problem of the behaviour of a social system rather than the meeting of static principles of what is 'right'. This points to the importance of being attentive to the dynamic and dialogical nature of justice when dealing with water allocation issues across scales and levels of water governance.

Modeling The Hydrology And Water Allocation Under Climate Change In Rural River Basins: A Case Study From Nam Ngum River Basin, Laos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasekera, D. L.; Kaluarachchi, J.; Kim, U.

2011-12-01

Rural river basins with sufficient water availability to maintain economic livelihoods can be affected with seasonal fluctuations of precipitation and sometimes by droughts. In addition, climate change impacts can also alter future water availability. General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate conditions but such estimates are often characterized by bias and coarse scale resolution making it necessary to downscale the outputs for use in regional hydrologic models. This study develops a methodology to downscale and project future monthly precipitation in moderate scale basins where data are limited. A stochastic framework for single-site and multi-site generation of weekly rainfall is developed while preserving the historical temporal and spatial correlation structures. The spatial correlations in the simulated occurrences and the amounts are induced using spatially correlated yet serially independent random numbers. This method is applied to generate weekly precipitation data for a 100-year period in the Nam Ngum River Basin (NNRB) that has a land area of 16,780 km2 located in Lao P.D.R. This method is developed and applied using precipitation data from 1961 to 2000 for 10 selected weather stations that represents the basin rainfall characteristics. Bias-correction method, based on fitted theoretical probability distribution transformations, is applied to improve monthly mean frequency, intensity and the amount of raw GCM precipitation predicted at a given weather station using CGCM3.1 and ECHAM5 for SRES A2 emission scenario. Bias-correction procedure adjusts GCM precipitation to approximate the long-term frequency and the intensity distribution observed at a given weather station. Index of agreement and mean absolute error are determined to assess the overall ability and performance of the bias correction method. The generated precipitation series aggregated at monthly time step was perturbed by the change factors estimated using the corrected GCM and baseline scenarios for future time periods of 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. A network based hydrologic and water resources model, WEAP, was used to simulate the current water allocation and management practices to identify the impacts of climate change in the 20th century. The results of this work are used to identify the multiple challenges faced by stakeholders and planners in water allocation for competing demands in the presence of climate change impacts.

Online decision support system for surface irrigation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenchao; Cui, Yuanlai

2017-04-01

Irrigation has played an important role in agricultural production. Irrigation decision support system is developed for irrigation water management, which can raise irrigation efficiency with few added engineering services. An online irrigation decision support system (OIDSS), in consist of in-field sensors and central computer system, is designed for surface irrigation management in large irrigation district. Many functions have acquired in OIDSS, such as data acquisition and detection, real-time irrigation forecast, water allocation decision and irrigation information management. The OIDSS contains four parts: Data acquisition terminals, Web server, Client browser and Communication system. Data acquisition terminals are designed to measure paddy water level, soil water content in dry land, ponds water level, underground water level, and canals water level. A web server is responsible for collecting meteorological data, weather forecast data, the real-time field data, and manager's feedback data. Water allocation decisions are made in the web server. Client browser is responsible for friendly displaying, interacting with managers, and collecting managers' irrigation intention. Communication system includes internet and the GPRS network used by monitoring stations. The OIDSS's model is based on water balance approach for both lowland paddy and upland crops. Considering basic database of different crops water demands in the whole growth stages and irrigation system engineering information, the OIDSS can make efficient decision of water allocation with the help of real-time field water detection and weather forecast. This system uses technical methods to reduce requirements of user's specialized knowledge and can also take user's managerial experience into account. As the system is developed by the Browser/Server model, it is possible to make full use of the internet resources, to facilitate users at any place where internet exists. The OIDSS has been applied in Zhanghe Irrigation District (Center China) to manage the required irrigation deliveries. Two years' application indicates that the proposed OIDSS can achieve promising performance for surface irrigation. Historical data of rice growing period in 2014 has been applied to test the OIDSS: it gives out 3 irrigation decisions, which is consistent with actual irrigation times and the forecast irrigation dates are well fit with the actual situations; the corresponding amount of total irrigation decreases by 15.13% compared to those without using the OIDSS.

Climate change impacts on irrigated rice and wheat production in Gomti River basin of India: a case study.

PubMed

Abeysingha, N S; Singh, Man; Islam, Adlul; Sehgal, V K

2016-01-01

Potential future impacts of climate change on irrigated rice and wheat production and their evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements in the Gomti River basin were assessed by integrating a widely used hydrological model "Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)" and climate change scenario generated from MIROC (HiRes) global climate model. SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly streamflow data of four spatially distributed gauging stations and district wise wheat and rice yields data for the districts located within the basin. Simulation results showed an increase in mean annual rice yield in the range of 5.5-6.7, 16.6-20.2 and 26-33.4 % during 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. Similarly, mean annual wheat yield is also likely to increase by 13.9-15.4, 23.6-25.6 and 25.2-27.9 % for the same future time periods. Evapotranspiration for both wheat and rice is projected to increase in the range of 3-9.6 and 7.8-16.3 %, respectively. With increase in rainfall during rice growing season, irrigation water allocation for rice is likely to decrease (<5 %) in future periods, but irrigation water allocation for wheat is likely to increase by 17.0-45.3 % in future periods.

Water Flow in the High Plains Aquifer in Northwestern Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luckey, Richard R.; Osborn, Noel I.; Becker, Mark F.; Andrews, William J.

2000-01-01

The High Plains is a major agricultural area, supported primarily by water from the High Plains aquifer, which is used to irrigate wheat and corn and to raise cattle and swine. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB) began a study of the High Plains aquifer in 1996. One purpose of the study was to develop a ground-water flow model that the OWRB could use to allocate the amount of water withdrawn from the a aquifer. The study area in Oklahoma covers all or parts of Beaver, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Harper, Texas, and Woodward Counties. To provide appropriate hydrologic boundaries for the ground-water flow model, the study area was expanded to include parts of Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, and Texas.

Seeing beyond borders: a game theoretic approach to anticipate the effect of satellite monitoring data on transboundary freshwater allocation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller, M. F.; Gorelick, S.; Muller-Itten, M. C.

2015-12-01

The allocation of transboundary freshwater resources is a ubiquitous challenge with direct repercussions on the political stability of the concerned region. Under the right conditions, the need to share scarce water resources can act as a catalyst for dialogue between otherwise hostile neighbors. Yet the strategic reluctance of the involved parties to share water diversion and use data remains a major barrier that raises the probability of conflict. In that context, high-quality satellite data are progressively available to monitor water resources beyond political boundaries. These datasets have an increasing role to play in the allocation of shared waters. We develop a game theoretical framework to predict their effect on transboundary water negotiations. We consider repetitions of a game between two countries that have a water allocation agreement for transboundary river flow. The upstream country can observe the available flow in any given year and decide whether or not to provide her neighbor with the agreed upon river discharge. The downstream country cannot observe the initially available flow. He only observes the water allocated provided by his upstream neighbor and can take actions to impose a sanction on her if he can confidently determine that the agreement has been breached. In that context, satellite monitoring data will affect the informational advantage of the upstream country and increase her probability of either abiding by the agreement or being caught when breaching it. We find that the informed equilibrium will produce a lower probability of conflict, but changes in both players' positions regarding equitable allocation may destabilize the existing agreement in the short term.

America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.

2017-12-01

This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

Spatiotemporal analysis of prior appropriations water calls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbakidze, Levan; Shen, Xiaozhe; Taylor, Garth; Mooney, SiâN.

2012-06-01

A spatiotemporal model is developed to examine prior appropriations-based water curtailment in Idaho's Snake River Plain Aquifer. Using a 100 year horizon, prior appropriations-based curtailment supplemented with optimized water use reductions is shown to produce a spatial distribution of water use reductions that differs from that produced by regulatory curtailment based strictly on initial water right assignments. Discounted profits over 100 years of crop production are up to 7% higher when allocation is optimized. Total pumping over 100 years is 0.3%, 3%, and 40% higher under 1, 10, and 100 year prior appropriations-based regulatory curtailment, respectively.

Impact of Multiple Environmental Stresses on Wetland Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muneepeerakul, C. P.; Tamea, S.; Muneepeerakul, R.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F. R.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2009-12-01

This research quantifies the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of wetland vegetation under the effect of multiple stresses, such as drought, water-logging, shade and nutrients. The effects of these stresses are investigated through a mechanistic model that captures the co-evolving nature between marsh emergent plant species and their resources (water, nitrogen, light, and oxygen). The model explicitly considers the feedback mechanisms between vegetation, light and nitrogen dynamics as well as the specific dynamics of plant leaves, rhizomes, and roots. Each plant species is characterized by three independent traits, namely leaf nitrogen (N) content, specific leaf area, and allometric carbon (C) allocation to rhizome storage, which govern the ability to gain and maintain resources as well as to survive in a particular multi-stressed environment. The modeling of plant growth incorporates C and N into the construction of leaves and roots, whose amount of new biomass is determined by the dynamic plant allocation scheme. Nitrogen is internally recycled between pools of plants, litter, humus, microbes, and mineral N. The N dynamics are modeled using a parallel scheme, with the major modifications being the calculation of the aerobic and anoxic periods and the incorporation of the anaerobic processes. A simple hydrologic model with stochastic rainfall is used to describe the water level dynamics and the soil moisture profile. Soil water balance is evaluated at the daily time scale and includes rainfall, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to/from an external water body, with evapotranspiration loss equal to the potential value, governed by the daily average condition of atmospheric water demand. The resulting feedback dynamics arising from the coupled system of plant-soil-microbe are studied in details and species’ fitnesses in the 3-D trait space are compared across various rainfall patterns with different mean and fluctuations. The model results are then compared with those from experiments and field studies reported in the literature, providing insights about the physiological features that enable plants to thrive in different wetland environments and climate regimes.

Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

Spatial Dynamic Optimization of Groundwater Use with Ecological Standards for Instream Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozovic, N.; Han, J.; Speir, C.

2011-12-01

Instream flow requirements for protected species in arid and semi-arid regions have created the need to reduce groundwater use adjacent to streams. We present an integrated hydrologic-economic model that optimizes agricultural groundwater use next to streams with flow standards. Policies to meet instream flow standards should aim to minimize the welfare losses to irrigated agriculture due to reduced pumping. Previous economic studies have proposed spatially targeted water allocations between groundwater irrigators and instream demands. However, these studies focused on meeting aggregate instream flow goals on a seasonal or yearly basis rather than meeting them on a continuous basis. Temporally aggregated goals ignore important intra-seasonal hydrologic effects and may not provide sufficient habitat quality for species of concern. We present an optimization model that solves for groundwater pumping allocations across space in a stream-aquifer system with instream flow goals that must be met on a daily basis. We combine an analytical model of stream depletion with a farm profit maximization model that includes cumulative crop yield damages from water stress. The objective is the minimization of agricultural losses from reduced groundwater use while minimum instream flow requirements for ecological needs are met on a daily basis. As a case study, we apply our model to the Scott River Basin in northern California. This is a region where stream depletion resulting from extensive irrigation has degraded habitat for Coho salmon, a species protected under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Our results indicate the importance of considering the lag between the time at which pumping occurs and the time at which stream depletion related to that pumping occurs. In general, we find that wells located farther from the stream should be allocated more water in most hydrologic scenarios. However, we also find that the spatial and temporal distribution of optimal groundwater pumping can differ dramatically depending on the level of streamflow and instream flow targets. In particular, we find that in drought years wells located closer to the stream might be allocated more water than wells farther from the stream. This counterintuitive result is driven by spatial variability in the time lag associated with the stream depletion externality following pumping. Any period of time during the year with extreme water scarcity requires a cessation of pumping in advance of that period so that stream depletion impacts can adequately dissipate before the start of the period. Wells that are farther away from the stream cause higher stream depletion impacts following the cessation of pumping, so they may need to cease pumping earlier in advance of the period of extreme water scarcity. The analysis also suggests that in our case study area, the Scott River Basin, policies that are spatially and temporally targeted may lead to welfare costs that are 30 percent less than welfare losses under uniform pumping restrictions. The relative welfare gains of the targeted policy over the uniform reduction policy increase as the scarcity of the instream water supply increases.

78 FR 18187 - Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act Provisions; Fisheries of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-25

... natural mortality rate (M) is 0.2 (M=0.2 model). The second assessment model assumes that M has increased... AMs (e.g., state waters). Currently, only the common pool fishery has a sub-ACL for SNE/MA windowpane flounder. The stock is not allocated to sectors, and therefore, all sector and common pool catch is...

Optimum Landscape Allocation of Conservation Practices for Water Quality and Ecosystem Service Valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalzell, B. J.; Pennington, D.; Nelson, E.; Mulla, D.; Polasky, S.; Taff, S.

2012-12-01

This study links a spatially-explicit biophysical model (SWAT) with an economic model (InVEST) to identify the economically optimum allocation of conservation practices on the landscape. Combining biophysical and economic analysis allows assessment of the benefits and costs of alternative policy choices through consideration of direct costs and benefits as measured by market transactions as well as non-market benefits and costs from changes in environmental conditions that lead to changes in the provision of ecosystem services. When applied to an agricultural watershed located in South-Central Minnesota, this approach showed that: (1) some modest gains (20% improvement, relative to baseline conditions) in water quality can be achieved without diminishing current economic returns, but that (2) more dramatic reductions in sediment and phosphorus required to meet water quality goals (50% reductions in loadings) will require transitioning land from row crops into perennial vegetation. This shift in land cover will result in a reduction in economic returns unless non-market ecosystem services are also valued. Further results showed that traditional best management practices such as conservation tillage and reduced fertilizer application rates are not sufficient to achieve water quality goals by themselves. Finally, if crop prices drop to pre-2007 levels or valuation of ecosystem services increases, then achieving water quality goals can occur with less of an economic impact to the watershed.

Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

PubMed

Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

2016-09-20

Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Model for a Water Leasing System on the Middle Rio Grand, New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brookshire, D. S.; Coursey, D. L.; Tidwell, V. C.; Broadbent, C. D.

2006-12-01

Since 1950 demand for water has more than doubled in the United States. Virtually all water supplies are allocated, leading to the question, where will water come from? The concept of water leasing has gained considerable attention as a volunteer, market-mediated system for transferring water between competing uses. For a water leasing system to be truly effective, detailed knowledge of the available water supply and the factors that affect water demand is critical. Improving understating of the factors that determine residential, industrial, and agricultural demand for water using experimental economics and then integrating with a hydrological model will allow for better understanding of market-based mechanisms potential to allocate water resources effectively. Currently we have three case studies underway, a generalized water leasing system on the Middle Rio Grande, a sophisticated farmer decision process and a study in the Mimbres basin in southern New Mexico. The developed market model utilizes an open market trading system known as a double auction, where buyers and sellers declare their bids and offers to the market. The developed hydrological model utilizes the Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model (URGWOM) system structure and data for the generalized water leasing system and the farmer decision process, with a different hydrological model being developed for the Mimbres basin. A key coupling between the hydrologic and market models involves tracking the difference in river losses for trades that move water up or down the river. In the experiments the hydrological model runs before the market-trading period to establish water rights, the trading period occurs and the hydrological model then runs a second time to report flows to each reach of the river. Participants in the experiment represent the interests of specific users, including farmers, Native American interests, urban interests and environmental interests. Participants in the experiments are motivated by a utility function specific to each water users needs. Currently twelve experiments have been run in four different climatic scenarios (decreasing, increasing, normal and dry water scenarios) for the generalized water leasing system, and the sophisticated farmer decision process. The results have shown the market to be robust, with multiple trades occurring in each trading year. The trading process is efficient with positive gains being realized from participation in the marketplace. This material is based upon work supported in part by SAHRA (Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas) under the STC Program of the National Science Foundation, Agreement No. EAR-9876800 and through Sandia National Laboratory Research and Development Program. Special thanks go to Kyle Carpenter, Ramon Vasquez, Ann Demint, for programming of various software components and to Jake Grandy and Frannie Miller for help in running the experiments.

100 years of California’s water rights system: patterns, trends and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grantham, Theodore E.; Viers, Joshua H.

2014-08-01

For 100 years, California’s State Water Resources Control Board and its predecessors have been responsible for allocating available water supplies to beneficial uses, but inaccurate and incomplete accounting of water rights has made the state ill-equipped to satisfy growing societal demands for water supply reliability and healthy ecosystems. Here, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of appropriative water rights to identify where, and to what extent, water has been dedicated to human uses relative to natural supplies. The results show that water right allocations total 400 billion cubic meters, approximately five times the state’s mean annual runoff. In the state’s major river basins, water rights account for up to 1000% of natural surface water supplies, with the greatest degree of appropriation observed in tributaries to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and in coastal streams in southern California. Comparisons with water supplies and estimates of actual use indicate substantial uncertainty in how water rights are exercised. In arid regions such as California, over-allocation of surface water coupled with trends of decreasing supply suggest that new water demands will be met by re-allocation from existing uses. Without improvements to the water rights system, growing human and environmental demands portend an intensification of regional water scarcity and social conflict. California’s legal framework for managing its water resources is largely compatible with needed reforms, but additional public investment is required to enhance the capacity of the state’s water management institutions to effectively track and regulate water rights.

18 CFR 367.28 - Methods of allocation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Methods of allocation... Instructions § 367.28 Methods of allocation. Indirect costs and compensation for use of capital must be allocated to projects in accordance with the service company's applicable and currently effective methods of...

18 CFR 367.28 - Methods of allocation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Methods of allocation... Instructions § 367.28 Methods of allocation. Indirect costs and compensation for use of capital must be allocated to projects in accordance with the service company's applicable and currently effective methods of...

Allocating responsibility for environmental risks: A comparative analysis of examples from water governance.

PubMed

Doorn, Neelke

2017-03-01

The focus of the present study is on the allocation of responsibilities for addressing environmental risks in transboundary water governance. Effective environmental management in transboundary situations requires coordinated and cooperative action among diverse individuals and organizations. Currently, little insight exists on how to foster collective action such that individuals and organizations take the responsibility to address transboundary environmental risks. On the basis of 4 cases of transboundary water governance, it will be shown how certain allocation principles are more likely to encourage cooperative action. The main lesson from these case studies is that the allocation of responsibilities should be seen as a risk distribution problem, including considerations of effectiveness, efficiency, and fairness. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:371-375. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

The Role of Integrated Modelling and Assessment for Decision-Making: Lessons from Water Allocation Issues in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakeman, A. J.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; El Sawah, S.; Hamilton, S.

2014-12-01

Integrated modelling and assessment (IMA) is best regarded as a process that can support environmental decision-making when issues are strongly contested and uncertainties pervasive. To be most useful, the process must be multi-dimensional and phased. Principally, it must be tailored to the problem context to encompass diverse issues of concern, management settings and stakeholders. This in turn requires the integration of multiple processes and components of natural and human systems and their corresponding spatial and temporal scales. Modellers therefore need to be able to integrate multiple disciplines, methods, models, tools and data, and many sources and types of uncertainty. These dimensions are incorporated into iteration between the various phases of the IMA process, including scoping, problem framing and formulation, assessing options and communicating findings. Two case studies in Australia are employed to share the lessons of how integration can be achieved in these IMA phases using a mix of stakeholder participation processes and modelling tools. One case study aims to improve the relevance of modelling by incorporating stakeholder's views of irrigated viticulture and water management decision making. It used a novel methodology with the acronym ICTAM, consisting of Interviews to elicit mental models, Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models, Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process, an All-encompassing conceptual model, and computational Models of stakeholder decision making. The second case uses a hydro-economic river network model to examine basin-wide impacts of water allocation cuts and adoption of farm innovations. The knowledge exchange approach used in each case was designed to integrate data and knowledge bearing in mind the contextual dimensions of the problem at hand, and the specific contributions that environmental modelling was thought to be able to make.

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Belitz, Kenneth

2008-01-01

landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winter, Jonathan M.; Lopez, Jose R.; Ruane, Alexander C.; Young, Charles A.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2017-01-01

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Simulating and predicting snow and glacier meltwater to the runoff of the Upper Mekong River basin in Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Z.; Long, D.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Snow and glacier meltwater in cryospheric regions replenishes groundwater and reservoir storage and is critical to water supply, hydropower development, agricultural irrigation, and ecological integrity. Accurate simulating and predicting snow and glacier meltwater is therefore fundamental to develop a better understanding of hydrological processes and water resource management for alpine basins and its lower reaches. The Upper Mekong River (or the Lancang River in China) as one of the most important transboundary rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau (TP), features active dam construction and complicated water resources allocation of the stakeholders. Confronted by both climate change and significant human activities, it is imperative to examine contributions of snow and glacier meltwater to the total runoff and how it will change in the near future. This will greatly benefit hydropower development in the upper reach of the Mekong and better water resources allocation and management across the relevant countries. This study aims to improve snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation using improved methods, and combines both modeling skill and remote sensing (i.e., passive microwave-based SWE, and satellite gravimetry-based total water storage) to quantify the contributions of snow and glacier meltwater there. In addition, the runoff of the Lancang River under a range of climate change scenarios is simulated using the improved modeling scheme to evaluate how climate change will impact hydropower development in the upper reaches.

Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption.

PubMed

Wu, Hua'an; Zeng, Bo; Zhou, Meng

2017-11-15

High accuracy in water demand predictions is an important basis for the rational allocation of city water resources and forms the basis for sustainable urban development. The shortage of water resources in Chongqing, the youngest central municipality in Southwest China, has significantly increased with the population growth and rapid economic development. In this paper, a new grey water-forecasting model (GWFM) was built based on the data characteristics of water consumption. The parameter estimation and error checking methods of the GWFM model were investigated. Then, the GWFM model was employed to simulate the water demands of Chongqing from 2009 to 2015 and forecast it in 2016. The simulation and prediction errors of the GWFM model was checked, and the results show the GWFM model exhibits better simulation and prediction precisions than those of the classical Grey Model with one variable and single order equation GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, the water demand in Chongqing from 2017 to 2022 was forecasted, and some corresponding control measures and recommendations were provided based on the prediction results to ensure a viable water supply and promote the sustainable development of the Chongqing economy.

Quantifying the economic importance of irrigation water reuse in a Chilean watershed using an integrated agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, R. T.; Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas

2015-01-01

Irrigation with surface water enables Chilean agricultural producers to generate one of the country's most important economic exports. The Chilean water code established tradable water rights as a mechanism to allocate water amongst farmers and other water-use sectors. It remains contested whether this mechanism is effective and many authors have raised equity concerns regarding its impact on water users. For example, speculative hoarding of water rights in expectations of their increasing value has been described. This paper demonstrates how farmers can hoard water rights as a risk management strategy for variable water supply, for example, due to the cycles of El Niño or as consequence of climate change. While farmers with insufficient water rights can rely on unclaimed water during conditions of normal water availability, drought years overproportionally impact on their supply of irrigation water and thereby farm profitability. This study uses a simulation model that consists of a hydrological balance model component and a multiagent farm decision and production component. Both model components are parameterized with empirical data, while uncertain parameters are calibrated. The study demonstrates a thorough quantification of parameter uncertainty, using global sensitivity analysis and multiple behavioral parameter scenarios.

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Impacts of climate change on the food-energy-water nexus in the upper Yellow River Basin: An integrated hydro-economic modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, Y.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

The large-scale reservoir system built on the upper Yellow River serves multiple purposes. The generated hydropower supplies over 60% of the entire electricity for the regional power grid while the irrigated crop production feeds almost one-third of the total population throughout the whole river basin. Moreover, the reservoir system also bears the responsibility for controlling ice flood, which occurs during the non-flood season due to winter ice freezing followed by spring thawing process, and could be even more disastrous than the summer flood. The contradiction of water allocation to satisfy multi-sector demands while mitigating ice flood risk has been longstanding. However, few researchers endeavor to employ the nexus thinking to addressing the complexities involved in all the interlinked purposes. In this study, we develop an integrated hydro-economic model that can be used to explore both the tradeoffs and synergies between the multiple purposes, based on which the water infrastructures (e.g., reservoir, diversion canal, pumping well) can be coordinated for maximizing the co-benefits of multiple sectors. The model is based on a node-link schematic of multiple operations including hydropower generation, irrigation scheduling, and the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. In particular, the model depicts some details regarding reservoir operation rules during the ice season using two indicators, i.e., flow control period and flow control level. The rules are obtained from historical records using data mining techniques under different climate conditions, and they are added to the model as part of the system constraints. Future reservoir inflow series are generated by a hydrological model with future climate scenarios projected by General Circulation Model (GCM). By analyzing the model results under the various climate scenarios, the future possible shifting trajectory of the food-energy-water system characteristics will be derived compared to the baseline scenario (i.e., the status-quo condition). Thus the model and the results are expected to be useful for enlightening economically efficient water allocation policy coping with climate change.

Shallow Alluvial Aquifer Ground Water System and Surface Water/Ground Water Interaction, Boulder Creek, Boulder, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babcock, K. P.; Ge, S.; Crifasi, R. R.

2006-12-01

Water chemistry in Boulder Creek, Colorado, shows significant variation as the Creek flows through the City of Boulder [Barber et al., 2006]. This variation is partially due to ground water inputs, which are not quantitatively understood. The purpose of this study is (1) to understand ground water movement in a shallow alluvial aquifer system and (2) to assess surface water/ground water interaction. The study area, encompassing an area of 1 mi2, is located at the Sawhill and Walden Ponds area in Boulder. This area was reclaimed by the City of Boulder and Boulder County after gravel mining operations ceased in the 1970's. Consequently, ground water has filled in the numerous gravel pits allowing riparian vegetation regrowth and replanting. An integrated approach is used to examine the shallow ground water and surface water of the study area through field measurements, water table mapping, graphical data analysis, and numerical modeling. Collected field data suggest that lateral heterogeneity exists throughout the unconsolidated sediment. Alluvial hydraulic conductivities range from 1 to 24 ft/day and flow rates range from 0.01 to 2 ft/day. Preliminary data analysis suggests that ground water movement parallels surface topography and does not noticeably vary with season. Recharge via infiltrating precipitation is dependent on evapotranspiration (ET) demands and is influenced by preferential flow paths. During the growing season when ET demand exceeds precipitation rates, there is little recharge; however recharge occurs during cooler months when ET demand is insignificant. Preliminary data suggest that the Boulder Creek is gaining ground water as it traverses the study area. Stream flow influences the water table for distances up to 400 feet. The influence of stream flow is reflected in the zones relatively low total dissolved solids concentration. A modeling study is being conducted to synthesize aquifer test data, ground water levels, and stream flow data. The model will quantitatively assess the interaction between surface water and ground water, particularly the amount of exchange between the creek and ground water and to what extent these systems influence each other. Model sensitivity study will help identify important system parameters. A comprehensive model of the study area will serve as a tool for efficiently allocating water throughout the study area (from Boulder Creek). Water allocation is needed to prevent the eutrophication of the ponds, improve fishery management, and efficiently meet the water rights obligations in the watershed.

Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2015-12-01

Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation of the production value of irrigated agriculture during droughts, assessing revenue responses to varying crop prices and water availability. Hydroeconomic approaches were then used to show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other locations and is intended to be a complement to the physical stream temperature modeling efforts that are underway on the river.

Correlation of foodstuffs with ethanol-water mixtures with regard to the solubility of migrants from food contact materials.

PubMed

Seiler, Annika; Bach, Aurélie; Driffield, Malcolm; Paseiro Losada, Perfecto; Mercea, Peter; Tosa, Valer; Franz, Roland

2014-01-01

Today most foods are available in a packed form. During storage, the migration of chemical substances from food packaging materials into food may occur and may therefore be a potential source of consumer exposure. To protect the consumer, standard migration tests are laid down in Regulation (EU) No. 10/2011. When using those migration tests and applying additional conservative conventions, estimated exposure is linked with large uncertainties including a certain margin of safety. Thus the research project FACET was initiated within the 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission with the aim of developing a probabilistic migration modelling framework which allows one (1) to calculate migration into foods under real conditions of use; and (2) to deliver realistic concentration estimates for consumer exposure modelling for complex packaging materials (including multi-material multilayer structures). The aim was to carry out within the framework of the FACET project a comprehensive systematic study on the solubility behaviour of foodstuffs for potentially migrating organic chemicals. Therefore a rapid and convenient method was established to obtain partition coefficients between polymer and food, KP/F. With this method approximately 700 time-dependent kinetic experiments from spiked polyethylene films were performed using model migrants, foods and ethanol-water mixtures. The partition coefficients of migrants between polymer and food (KP/F) were compared with those obtained using ethanol-water mixtures (KP/F's) to investigate whether an allocation of food groups with common migration behaviour to certain ethanol-water mixtures could be made. These studies have confirmed that the solubility of a migrant is mainly dependent on the fat content in the food and on the ethanol concentration of ethanol-water mixtures. Therefore dissolution properties of generic food groups for migrants can be assigned to those of ethanol-water mixtures. All foodstuffs (including dry foods) when allocated to FACET model food group codes can be classified into a reduced number of food categories each represented by a corresponding ethanol-water equivalency.

Household water demand and welfare loss for future Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhard, Jeroen; Reynaud, Arnaud; Lanzanova, Denis; de Roo, Ad

2015-04-01

Matching the availability of water to its demand in Europe is a major challenge for the future due to expected economic and demographic developments and climate change. This means there is a growing need to estimate future water demand and to optimize the water allocation to all end users to counteract welfare loss. At the European scale it is currently not possible to assess the impact of social and economic changes on future water demand or to prioritize water allocation amongst different sectors based on economic damage without extensive use of assumptions and generalizations. Indeed, our review of existing regional optimization models for Europe reveals that the social-economic component of the water use system needs to be improved by complementing them with detailed water use estimates and cost/benefit functions in order to determine the optimal situation. Our study contributes to closing this knowledge gap for the European household sector by quantifying future water demand and the effect of water pricing, as well as providing a method for the calculation of monetary damage due to unmet demand at the highest spatial resolution possible. We used a water demand function approach in which household water consumption depends upon some exogenous drivers including water price, household income, population and household characteristics and climate conditions. For each European country, the annual water consumption per capita was calculated at regional level (NUTS3) and subsequently disaggregated to five kilometer grid level based on a population density map. In order to produce estimates of water demand, the evolution of the explanatory variables of the water demand functions and population density map were simulated until 2050 based on related variables such as GDP and demographic projections. The results of this study will be integrated into the JRC hydro-economic modelling framework for an assessment of the Water-Agriculture-Energy-Ecosystems Nexus.

Epicatechin as a Therapeutic Strategy to Mitigate the Development of Cardiac Remodeling and Fibrosis

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

Currently, no drugs target HFpEF and the development of animal models can assist in therapy evaluation. We developed a female rat model of aging...allocated into an aging group, aging + ovariectomy and aging + ovariectomy + 10% fructose in drinking water. At 22 months of age, animals were...epicatechin (Epi) will ameliorate adverse tissue remodeling and cardiac fibrosis in female animal models developing diastolic dysfunction as seen in women

Testing the utility of the 3-PG model for growth of Eucalyptus grandis x urophylla with natural and manipulated supplies of water and nutrients

Treesearch

Jose Luiz Stape; Michael G. Ryan; Dan Binkley

2004-01-01

The productivity of fast-growing tropical plantations depends, in part, on the ability of trees to obtain and utilize site resources, and the allocation of fixed carbon (C) to wood production. Simulation models can represent these processes and interactions, but the value of these models depends on their ability to improve predictions of stand growth relative to...

Establishing Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) Wasteload Allocations (WLAs) for Storm Water Sources and NPDES Permit Requirements Based on Those WLAs

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The memoranda clarify existing EPA regulatory requirements for, and provide guidance on, establishing wasteload allocations (WLAs) for storm water discharges in total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) approved or established by EPA.

Water Use for Unconventional Energy Development: How Much, What Kind, and to What Reaction?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grubert, E.

2017-12-01

Water resources—access to water, protection of water, and allocation of water in particular—are a major priority for Americans, but water use for the energy sector has not previously been well characterized. Water use and management associated with unconventional energy development is of special interest, in part because it is often new to the locations and contexts where it occurs. This presentation focuses on three major questions about water use for unconventional energy development, drawing on both engineering and anthropological research. First, using results from a recent study of water use for energy in the entire United States, how much water does the US use for unconventional energy resources, and how does that compare with water use for more mature fuel cycles? Second, based on that same study, what kind of water is used for these unconventional energy resource fuel cycles? Specifically, where does the water come from, and what is its quality? Finally, drawing on recent case studies in the US and elsewhere, what has the reaction been to these water uses, and why does that matter? Case studies focused on oil and natural gas resources illustrate societal reactions to issues of both water management, particularly related to induced seismicity associated with produced water injection, and water allocation, particularly related to hydraulic fracturing. Overall, recent work finds that public concern about water used for unconventional energy resources is often better explained by observed or anticipated local impacts and the uncertainty surrounding these impacts than by specifics about quantities, allocation, and management techniques. This work provides both quantitative and qualitative characterization of water management and allocation for unconventional energy development.

Optimality versus stability in water resource allocation.

PubMed

Read, Laura; Madani, Kaveh; Inanloo, Bahareh

2014-01-15

Water allocation is a growing concern in a developing world where limited resources like fresh water are in greater demand by more parties. Negotiations over allocations often involve multiple groups with disparate social, economic, and political status and needs, who are seeking a management solution for a wide range of demands. Optimization techniques for identifying the Pareto-optimal (social planner solution) to multi-criteria multi-participant problems are commonly implemented, although often reaching agreement for this solution is difficult. In negotiations with multiple-decision makers, parties who base decisions on individual rationality may find the social planner solution to be unfair, thus creating a need to evaluate the willingness to cooperate and practicality of a cooperative allocation solution, i.e., the solution's stability. This paper suggests seeking solutions for multi-participant resource allocation problems through an economics-based power index allocation method. This method can inform on allocation schemes that quantify a party's willingness to participate in a negotiation rather than opt for no agreement. Through comparison of the suggested method with a range of distance-based multi-criteria decision making rules, namely, least squares, MAXIMIN, MINIMAX, and compromise programming, this paper shows that optimality and stability can produce different allocation solutions. The mismatch between the socially-optimal alternative and the most stable alternative can potentially result in parties leaving the negotiation as they may be too dissatisfied with their resource share. This finding has important policy implications as it justifies why stakeholders may not accept the socially optimal solution in practice, and underlies the necessity of considering stability where it may be more appropriate to give up an unstable Pareto-optimal solution for an inferior stable one. Authors suggest assessing the stability of an allocation solution as an additional component to an analysis that seeks to distribute water in a negotiated process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term reliability of the Athabasca River (Alberta, Canada) as the water source for oil sands mining

PubMed Central

Sauchyn, David J.; St-Jacques, Jeannine-Marie; Luckman, Brian H.

2015-01-01

Exploitation of the Alberta oil sands, the world’s third-largest crude oil reserve, requires fresh water from the Athabasca River, an allocation of 4.4% of the mean annual flow. This allocation takes into account seasonal fluctuations but not long-term climatic variability and change. This paper examines the decadal-scale variability in river discharge in the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) with (i) a generalized least-squares (GLS) regression analysis of the trend and variability in gauged flow and (ii) a 900-y tree-ring reconstruction of the water-year flow of the Athabasca River at Athabasca, Alberta. The GLS analysis removes confounding transient trends related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Pacific North American mode (PNA). It shows long-term declining flows throughout the ARB. The tree-ring record reveals a larger range of flows and severity of hydrologic deficits than those captured by the instrumental records that are the basis for surface water allocation. It includes periods of sustained low flow of multiple decades in duration, suggesting the influence of the PDO and PNA teleconnections. These results together demonstrate that low-frequency variability must be considered in ARB water allocation, which has not been the case. We show that the current and projected surface water allocations from the Athabasca River for the exploitation of the Alberta oil sands are based on an untenable assumption of the representativeness of the short instrumental record. PMID:26392554

Cost Allocation of Multiagency Water Resource Projects: Game Theoretic Approaches and Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lejano, Raul P.; Davos, Climis A.

1995-05-01

Water resource projects are often jointly carried out by a number of communities and agencies. Participation in a joint project depends on how costs are allocated among the participants and how cost shares compare with the cost of independent projects. Cooperative N-person game theory offers approaches which yield cost allocations that satisfy rationality conditions favoring participation. A new solution concept, the normalized nucleolus, is discussed and applied to a water reuse project in southern California. Results obtained with the normalized nucleolus are compared with those derived with more traditional solution concepts, namely, the nucleolus and the Shapley value.

Investigation and incorporation of water inflow uncertainties through stochastic modelling in a combined optimisation methodology for water allocation in Alfeios River (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekri, Eleni; Yannopoulos, Panayotis; Disse, Markus

2014-05-01

The Alfeios River plays a vital role for Western Peloponnisos in Greece from natural, ecological, social and economic aspect. The main river and its six tributaries, forming the longest watercourse and the highest streamflow rate of Peloponnisose, represent a significant source of water supply for the region, aiming at delivering and satisfying the expected demands from a variety of water users, including irrigation, drinking water supply, hydropower production and recreation. In the previous EGU General Assembly, a fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology, based on Li et al. (2010) and Bekri et al. (2012), has been presented for optimal water allocation under uncertain and vague system conditions in the Alfeios River Basin. Uncertainties associated with the benefit and cost coefficient in the objective function of the main water uses (hydropower production and irrigation) were expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy boundary intervals derived by associated α-cut levels. The uncertainty of the monthly water inflows was not incorporated in the previous initial application and the analysis of all other sources of uncertainty has been applied to two extreme hydrologic years represented by a selected wet and dry year. To manage and operate the river system, decision makers should be able to analyze and evaluate the impact of various hydrologic scenarios. In the present work, the critical uncertain parameter of water inflows is analyzed and its incorporation as an additional type of uncertainty in the suggested methodology is investigated, in order to enable the assessment of optimal water allocation for hydrologic and socio-economic scenarios based both on historical data and projected climate change conditions. For this purpose, stochastic simulation analysis for a part of the Alfeios river system is undertaken, testing various stochastic models from simple stationary ones (AR and ARMA), Thomas-Fiering, ARIMA as well as more sophisticated and complete such as CASTALIA. A short description and comparison of their assumptions, the differences between them and the presentation of the results are included. Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H. and S.L., Nie, (2010), Planning water resources management systems using a fuzzy boundary interval-stochastic programming method, Elsevier Ltd, Advances in Water Resources, 33: 1105-1117. doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2010.06.015 Bekri, E.S., Disse, M. and P.C.,Yannopoulos, (2012), Methodological framework for correction of quick river discharge measurements using quality characteristics, Session of Environmental Hydraulics - Hydrodynamics, 2nd Common Conference of Hellenic Hydrotechnical Association and Greek Committee for Water Resources Management, Volume: 546-557 (in Greek).

Optimal water management and conflict resolution: The Middle East Water Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Franklin M.; Arlosoroff, Shaul; Eckstein, Zvi; Haddadin, Munther; Hamati, Salem G.; Huber-Lee, Annette; Jarrar, Ammar; Jayyousi, Anan; Shamir, Uri; Wesseling, Hans

2002-11-01

In many situations, actual water markets will not allocate water resources optimally, largely because of the perceived social value of water. It is possible, however, to build optimizing models which, taking account of demand as well as supply considerations, can substitute for actual markets. Such models can assist the formation of water policies, taking into account user-supplied values and constraints. They provide powerful tools for the system-wide cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure; this is illustrated by an analysis of the need for desalination in Israel and the cost and benefits of adding a conveyance line. Further, the use of such models can facilitate cooperation in water, yielding gains that can be considerably greater than the value of the disputed water itself. This can turn what appear to be zero-sum games into win-win situations. The Middle East Water Project has built such a model for the Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian region. We find that the value of the water in dispute in the region is very small and the possible gains from cooperation are relatively large. Analysis of the scarcity value of water is a crucial feature.

Evaluating the State of Water Management in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Partida, Jose Pablo; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Diaz Gomez, Romina

2017-04-01

Water resource modeling tools have been developed for many different regions and sub-basins of the Rio Grande/Bravo (RGB). Each of these tools has specific objectives, whether it is to explore drought mitigation alternatives, conflict resolution, climate change evaluation, tradeoff and economic synergies, water allocation, reservoir operations, or collaborative planning. However, there has not been an effort to integrate different available tools, or to link models developed for specific reaches into a more holistic watershed decision-support tool. This project outlines promising next steps to meet long-term goals of improved decision support tools and modeling. We identify, describe, and synthesize water resources management practices in the RGB basin and available water resources models and decision support tools that represent the RGB and the distribution of water for human and environmental uses. The extent body of water resources modeling is examined from a perspective of environmental water needs and water resources management and thereby allows subsequent prioritization of future research and monitoring needs for the development of river system modeling tools. This work communicates the state of the RGB science to diverse stakeholders, researchers, and decision-makers. The products of this project represent a planning tool to support an integrated water resources management framework to maximize economic and social welfare without compromising vital ecosystems.

A water resources model to explore the implications of energy alternatives in the southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Averyt, Kristen; Flores-Lopez, Francisco; Meldrum, J.; Sattler, S.; Sieber, J.; Young, C.

2013-12-01

This letter documents the development and validation of a climate-driven, southwestern-US-wide water resources planning model that is being used to explore the implications of extended drought and climate warming on the allocation of water among competing uses. These model uses include a separate accounting for irrigated agriculture; municipal indoor use based on local population and per-capita consumption; climate-driven municipal outdoor turf and amenity watering; and thermoelectric cooling. The model simulates the natural and managed flows of rivers throughout the southwest, including the South Platte, the Arkansas, the Colorado, the Green, the Salt, the Sacramento, the San Joaquin, the Owens, and more than 50 others. Calibration was performed on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. Goodness of fit statistics and other measures of performance are shown for a select number of locations and are used to summarize the model’s ability to represent monthly streamflow, reservoir storages, surface and ground water deliveries, etc, under 1980-2010 levels of sectoral water use.

An interval chance-constrained fuzzy modeling approach for supporting land-use planning and eco-environment planning at a watershed level.

PubMed

Ou, Guoliang; Tan, Shukui; Zhou, Min; Lu, Shasha; Tao, Yinghui; Zhang, Zuo; Zhang, Lu; Yan, Danping; Guan, Xingliang; Wu, Gang

2017-12-15

An interval chance-constrained fuzzy land-use allocation (ICCF-LUA) model is proposed in this study to support solving land resource management problem associated with various environmental and ecological constraints at a watershed level. The ICCF-LUA model is based on the ICCF (interval chance-constrained fuzzy) model which is coupled with interval mathematical model, chance-constrained programming model and fuzzy linear programming model and can be used to deal with uncertainties expressed as intervals, probabilities and fuzzy sets. Therefore, the ICCF-LUA model can reflect the tradeoff between decision makers and land stakeholders, the tradeoff between the economical benefits and eco-environmental demands. The ICCF-LUA model has been applied to the land-use allocation of Wujiang watershed, Guizhou Province, China. The results indicate that under highly land suitable conditions, optimized area of cultivated land, forest land, grass land, construction land, water land, unused land and landfill in Wujiang watershed will be [5015, 5648] hm 2 , [7841, 7965] hm 2 , [1980, 2056] hm 2 , [914, 1423] hm 2 , [70, 90] hm 2 , [50, 70] hm 2 and [3.2, 4.3] hm 2 , the corresponding system economic benefit will be between 6831 and 7219 billion yuan. Consequently, the ICCF-LUA model can effectively support optimized land-use allocation problem in various complicated conditions which include uncertainties, risks, economic objective and eco-environmental constraints. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of future crop yield and agricultural sustainable water use in north china plain using multiple crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, G.

2016-12-01

Currently, studying crop-water response mechanism has become an important part in the development of new irrigation technology and optimal water allocation in water-scarce regions, which is of great significance to crop growth guidance, sustainable utilization of agricultural water, as well as the sustainable development of regional agriculture. Using multiple crop models(AquaCrop,SWAP,DNDC), this paper presents the results of simulating crop growth and agricultural water consumption of the winter-wheat and maize cropping system in north china plain. These areas are short of water resources, but generates about 23% of grain production for China. By analyzing the crop yields and the water consumption of the traditional flooding irrigation, the paper demonstrates quantitative evaluation of the potential amount of water use that can be reduced by using high-efficient irrigation approaches, such as drip irrigation. To maintain food supply and conserve water resources, the research concludes sustainable irrigation methods for the three provinces for sustainable utilization of agricultural water.

Multi-objective evolutionary optimization for the joint operation of reservoirs of water supply under water-food-energy nexus management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uen, T. S.; Tsai, W. P.; Chang, F. J.; Huang, A.

2016-12-01

In recent years, urbanization had a great effect on the growth of population and the resource management scheme of water, food and energy nexus (WFE nexus) in Taiwan. Resource shortages of WFE become a long-term and thorny issue due to the complex interactions of WFE nexus. In consideration of rapid socio-economic development, it is imperative to explore an efficient and practical approach for WFE resources management. This study aims to search the optimal solution to WFE nexus and construct a stable water supply system for multiple stakeholders. The Shimen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir in northern Taiwan are chosen to conduct the joint operation of the two reservoirs for water supply. This study intends to achieve water resource allocation from the two reservoirs subject to different operating rules and restrictions of resource allocation. The multi-objectives of the joint operation aim at maximizing hydro-power synergistic gains while minimizing water supply deficiency as well as food shortages. We propose to build a multi-objective evolutionary optimization model for analyzing the hydro-power synergistic gains to suggest the most favorable solutions in terms of tradeoffs between WFE. First, this study collected data from two reservoirs and Taiwan power company. Next, we built a WFE nexus model based on system dynamics. Finally, this study optimized the joint operation of the two reservoirs and calculated the synergy of hydro-power generation. The proposed methodology can tackle the complex joint reservoir operation problems. Results can suggest a reliable policy for joint reservoir operation for creating a green economic city under the lowest risks of water supply.

Observation and Modelling of Soil Water Content Towards Improved Performance Indicators of Large Irrigation Schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labbassi, Kamal; Akdim, Nadia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Irrigation performance may be evaluated for different objectives such as equity, adequacy, or effectiveness. We are using two performance indicators: IP2 measures the consistency of the allocation of the irrigation water with gross Crop Water requirements, while IP3 measures the effectiveness of irrigation by evaluating the increase in crop transpiration between the case of no irrigation and the case of different levels of irrigation. To evaluate IP3 we need to calculate the soil water balance for the two cases. We have developed a system based on the hydrological model SWAP (Soil Water atmosphere Plant) to calculate spatial and temporal patterns of crop transpiration T(x, y, t) and of the vertical distribution of soil water content θ(x, y, z, t). On one hand, in the absence of ground measurement of soil water content to validate and evaluate the precision of the estimated one, a possibility would be to use satellite retrievals of top soil water content, such as the data to be provided by SMAP. On the other hand, to calculate IP3 we need root zone rather than top soil water content. In principle, we could use the model SWAP to establish a relationship between the top soil and root zone water content. Such relationship could be a simple empirical one or a data assimilation procedure. In our study area (Doukkala- Morocco) we have assessed the consistency of the water allocation with the actual irrigated area and crop water requirements (CWR) by using a combination of multispectral satellite image time series (i,e RapidEye (REIS), SPOT4 (HRVIR1) and Landsat 8 (OLI) images acquired during the 2012/2013 agricultural season). To obtain IP2 (x, y, t) we need to determine ETc (x, y, t). We have applied two (semi)empirical approaches: the first one is the Kc-NDVI method, based on the correlation between the Near Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the value of crop coefficient (kc); the second one is the analytical approach based on the direct application of Penman-Monteith equation with reflectance-based estimates of canopy biophysical variables, such as surface albedo (r), leaf area index (LAI) and crop height (hc). The validation of spatial results using the dual crop coefficient approach (kcb) showed that the satellite-based estimates of ETc corresponded well with ground-based ETc i.e, R²=0.75 and RMSE=0.79 versus R²=0.73 and RMSE=0.89 for respectively kc-NDVI and analytical approach. To monitor IP3 (x, y, t) with the SWAP model we mapped soil hydrological properties combining soil maps with grain size analysis of a number of samples, and agricultural crops using multi-temporal classification of NDVI time series. The assessment of irrigation performance in term of adequacy between requirement and allocation showed that CWR are much larger than water supply for entire area, this mismatch is improved in the beginning of the growing season by means of Irrigation water requirement (IWR) and even more using the net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) estimated using SWAP model. We expect that the availability of SMAP data products will significantly improve the reliability and temporal sampling of our indicators.

August 2015 Proposed Total Maximum Daily Load Document and Appendices for Vermont Segments of Lake Champlain

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

These documents provide allocations of phosphorus loads to Lake Champlain to meet water quality criteria, describe basis for allocation for future growth, & describe how implementation measures were simulated to determine that allocations can be achieved

Valuing Wildlands

Treesearch

R.A. Efroymson; H.I. Jager; W.W. Hargrove

2010-01-01

One of the central problems of land and water management is "the way in which scarce resources are allocated among alternative uses and users. The question is, of course, fundamental to economic models and modes of thought in ecology"(Rapport and Turner 1977). Many questions that are at the heart of environmental scape ecology and EcoRAs (the primary topics...

Attribution of the present-day total greenhouse effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Ruedy, Reto A.; Miller, Ron L.; Lacis, Andy A.

2010-10-01

The relative contributions of atmospheric long-wave absorbers to the present-day global greenhouse effect are among the most misquoted statistics in public discussions of climate change. Much of the interest in these values is however due to an implicit assumption that these contributions are directly relevant for the question of climate sensitivity. Motivated by the need for a clear reference for this issue, we review the existing literature and use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE radiation module to provide an overview of the role of each absorber at the present-day and under doubled CO2. With a straightforward scheme for allocating overlaps, we find that water vapor is the dominant contributor (˜50% of the effect), followed by clouds (˜25%) and then CO2 with ˜20%. All other absorbers play only minor roles. In a doubled CO2 scenario, this allocation is essentially unchanged, even though the magnitude of the total greenhouse effect is significantly larger than the initial radiative forcing, underscoring the importance of feedbacks from water vapor and clouds to climate sensitivity.

Influential third party on water right conflict: A Game Theory approach to achieve the desired equilibrium (case study: Ilam dam, Iran).

PubMed

Zanjanian, Hossein; Abdolabadi, Hamid; Niksokhan, Mohammad Hossein; Sarang, Amin

2018-05-15

Allocating water to organizational stakeholders poses a vital challenge to water managers. Organizations which benefit from water as the primary factor input attempt to achieve their objectives using cost-effective and quick-return strategies, such as increasing the water rights. In such circumstances, lack of water probably results in the conflict. Recognizing the management approaches, organizational priorities, and the stakeholders' influence power can play a dominant role in analyzing the future of such conflicts. In this paper, we analyzed the conflict of water allocation in Ilam dam among organizational stakeholders. We defined the strategies based on the background of the game and organizational objectives. The influence power of stakeholders and the numerical weights of strategies were quantified based on the expert judgment method. The relative priorities of strategies were then calculated for each state of the conflict. We used the GMCR + model to study the actions of stakeholders. Results suggest that the Jihad Agriculture Organization and the Water and Wastewater Company withdraw more water; hence, there exists no water to meet the environmental water right. In this case, the participation of the third party, such as the Governorship and the Justice can change the future of the conflict, and result in moving to the optimal state. However, results from Inverse GMCR analysis demonstrate that Justice is the most influential third party that can move the conflict towards a desired equilibrium (optimal case). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Partial Membership Latent Dirichlet Allocation for Soft Image Segmentation.

PubMed

Chen, Chao; Zare, Alina; Trinh, Huy N; Omotara, Gbenga O; Cobb, James Tory; Lagaunne, Timotius A

2017-12-01

Topic models [e.g., probabilistic latent semantic analysis, latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), and supervised LDA] have been widely used for segmenting imagery. However, these models are confined to crisp segmentation, forcing a visual word (i.e., an image patch) to belong to one and only one topic. Yet, there are many images in which some regions cannot be assigned a crisp categorical label (e.g., transition regions between a foggy sky and the ground or between sand and water at a beach). In these cases, a visual word is best represented with partial memberships across multiple topics. To address this, we present a partial membership LDA (PM-LDA) model and an associated parameter estimation algorithm. This model can be useful for imagery, where a visual word may be a mixture of multiple topics. Experimental results on visual and sonar imagery show that PM-LDA can produce both crisp and soft semantic image segmentations; a capability previous topic modeling methods do not have.

An inventory-theory-based interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, M. Q.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.

2011-09-01

In this study, an inventory-theory-based interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming (IB-ITSP) model is proposed through integrating inventory theory into an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic optimization framework. This method can not only address system uncertainties with complex presentation but also reflect transferring batch (the transferring quantity at once) and period (the corresponding cycle time) in decision making problems. A case of water allocation problems in water resources management planning is studied to demonstrate the applicability of this method. Under different flow levels, different transferring measures are generated by this method when the promised water cannot be met. Moreover, interval solutions associated with different transferring costs also have been provided. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help water resources managers to identify desired policies. Compared with the ITSP method, the IB-ITSP model can provide a positive measure for solving water shortage problems and afford useful information for decision makers under uncertainty.

Forecasting the Water Demand in Chongqing, China Using a Grey Prediction Model and Recommendations for the Sustainable Development of Urban Water Consumption

PubMed Central

Wu, Hua’an; Zhou, Meng

2017-01-01

High accuracy in water demand predictions is an important basis for the rational allocation of city water resources and forms the basis for sustainable urban development. The shortage of water resources in Chongqing, the youngest central municipality in Southwest China, has significantly increased with the population growth and rapid economic development. In this paper, a new grey water-forecasting model (GWFM) was built based on the data characteristics of water consumption. The parameter estimation and error checking methods of the GWFM model were investigated. Then, the GWFM model was employed to simulate the water demands of Chongqing from 2009 to 2015 and forecast it in 2016. The simulation and prediction errors of the GWFM model was checked, and the results show the GWFM model exhibits better simulation and prediction precisions than those of the classical Grey Model with one variable and single order equation GM(1,1) for short and the frequently-used Discrete Grey Model with one variable and single order equation, DGM(1,1) for short. Finally, the water demand in Chongqing from 2017 to 2022 was forecasted, and some corresponding control measures and recommendations were provided based on the prediction results to ensure a viable water supply and promote the sustainable development of the Chongqing economy. PMID:29140266

Forecasting urban water demand: A meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Sebri, Maamar

2016-12-01

Water managers and planners require accurate water demand forecasts over the short-, medium- and long-term for many purposes. These range from assessing water supply needs over spatial and temporal patterns to optimizing future investments and planning future allocations across competing sectors. This study surveys the empirical literature on the urban water demand forecasting using the meta-analytical approach. Specifically, using more than 600 estimates, a meta-regression analysis is conducted to identify explanations of cross-studies variation in accuracy of urban water demand forecasting. Our study finds that accuracy depends significantly on study characteristics, including demand periodicity, modeling method, forecasting horizon, model specification and sample size. The meta-regression results remain robust to different estimators employed as well as to a series of sensitivity checks performed. The importance of these findings lies in the conclusions and implications drawn out for regulators and policymakers and for academics alike. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Quantification and Multi-purpose Allocation of Water Resources in a Dual-reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salami, Y. D.

2017-12-01

Transboundary rivers that run through separate water management jurisdictions sometimes experience competitive water usage. Where the river has multiple existing or planned dams along its course, quantification and efficient allocation of water for such purposes as hydropower generation, irrigation for agriculture, and water supply can be a challenge. This problem is even more pronounced when large parts of the river basin are located in semi-arid regions known for water insecurity, poor crop yields from irrigation scheme failures, and human population displacement arising from water-related conflict. This study seeks to mitigate the impacts of such factors on the Kainji-Jebba dual-reservoir system located along the Niger River in Africa by seasonally quantifying and efficiently apportioning water to all stipulated uses of both dams thereby improving operational policy and long-term water security. Historical storage fluctuations (18 km3 to 5 km3) and flows into and out of both reservoirs were analyzed for relationships to such things as surrounding catchment contribution, dam operational policies, irrigation and hydropower requirements, etc. Optimum values of the aforementioned parameters were then determined by simulations based upon hydrological contributions and withdrawals and worst case scenarios of natural and anthropogenic conditions (like annual probability of reservoir depletion) affecting water availability and allocation. Finally, quantification and optimized allocation of water was done based on needs for hydropower, irrigation for agriculture, water supply, and storage evacuation for flood control. Results revealed that water supply potential increased by 69%, average agricultural yield improved by 36%, and hydropower generation increased by 54% and 66% at the upstream and downstream dams respectively. Lessons learned from this study may help provide a robust and practical means of water resources management in similar river basins and multi-reservoir systems.

Biomass Allocation of Stoloniferous and Rhizomatous Plant in Response to Resource Availability: A Phylogenetic Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Xie, Xiu-Fang; Hu, Yu-Kun; Pan, Xu; Liu, Feng-Hong; Song, Yao-Bin; Dong, Ming

2016-01-01

Resource allocation to different functions is central in life-history theory. Plasticity of functional traits allows clonal plants to regulate their resource allocation to meet changing environments. In this study, biomass allocation traits of clonal plants were categorized into absolute biomass for vegetative growth vs. for reproduction, and their relative ratios based on a data set including 115 species and derived from 139 published literatures. We examined general pattern of biomass allocation of clonal plants in response to availabilities of resource (e.g., light, nutrients, and water) using phylogenetic meta-analysis. We also tested whether the pattern differed among clonal organ types (stolon vs. rhizome). Overall, we found that stoloniferous plants were more sensitive to light intensity than rhizomatous plants, preferentially allocating biomass to vegetative growth, aboveground part and clonal reproduction under shaded conditions. Under nutrient- and water-poor condition, rhizomatous plants were constrained more by ontogeny than by resource availability, preferentially allocating biomass to belowground part. Biomass allocation between belowground and aboveground part of clonal plants generally supported the optimal allocation theory. No general pattern of trade-off was found between growth and reproduction, and neither between sexual and clonal reproduction. Using phylogenetic meta-analysis can avoid possible confounding effects of phylogeny on the results. Our results shown the optimal allocation theory explained a general trend, which the clonal plants are able to plastically regulate their biomass allocation, to cope with changing resource availability, at least in stoloniferous and rhizomatous plants. PMID:27200071

Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-04-01

Adaptation to the multiple facets of global change challenges the conventional means of sustainably planning and managing water resources at the river basin scale. Numerous demand or supply management options are available, from which adaptation measures need to be selected in a context of high uncertainty of future conditions. Given the interdependency of water users, agreements need to be found at the local level to implement the most effective adaptation measures. Therefore, this work develops an approach combining economics and water resources engineering to select a cost-effective programme of adaptation measures in the context of climate change uncertainty, and to define an equitable allocation of the cost of the adaptation plan between the stakeholders involved. A framework is developed to integrate inputs from the two main approaches commonly used to plan for adaptation. The first, referred to as "top-down", consists of a modelling chain going from global greenhouse gases emission scenarios to local hydrological models used to assess the impact of climate change on water resources. Conversely, the second approach, called "bottom-up", starts from assessing vulnerability at the local level to then identify adaptation measures used to face an uncertain future. The methodological framework presented in this contribution relies on a combination of these two approaches to support the selection of adaptation measures at the local level. Outcomes from these two approaches are integrated to select a cost-effective combination of adaptation measures through a least-cost optimization model developed at the river basin scale. The performances of a programme of measures are assessed under different climate projections to identify cost-effective and least-regret adaptation measures. The issue of allocating the cost of the adaptation plan is considered through two complementary perspectives. The outcome of a negotiation process between the stakeholders is modelled through the implementation of cooperative game theory to define cost allocation scenarios. These results are compared with cost allocation rules based on social justice principles to provide contrasted insights into a negotiation process. The interdisciplinary framework developed in this research combines economics and water resources engineering methods, establishing a promising means of bridging the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches and supporting the creation of cost-effective and equitable adaptation plans at the local level. The approach has been applied to the Orb river basin in Southern France. Acknowledgements The study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project /CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) from the Spanish ministry MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds. Corentin Girard is supported by a grant from the University Lecturer Training Program (FPU12/03803) of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports of Spain.

Improved ant colony optimization for optimal crop and irrigation water allocation by incorporating domain knowledge

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An improved ant colony optimization (ACO) formulation for the allocation of crops and water to different irrigation areas is developed. The formulation enables dynamic adjustment of decision variable options and makes use of visibility factors (VFs, the domain knowledge that can be used to identify ...

Derivation of optimal joint operating rules for multi-purpose multi-reservoir water-supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Qiao-feng; Wang, Xu; Wang, Hao; Wang, Chao; Lei, Xiao-hui; Xiong, Yi-song; Zhang, Wei

2017-08-01

The derivation of joint operating policy is a challenging task for a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system. This study proposed an aggregation-decomposition model to guide the joint operation of multi-purpose multi-reservoir system, including: (1) an aggregated model based on the improved hedging rule to ensure the long-term water-supply operating benefit; (2) a decomposed model to allocate the limited release to individual reservoirs for the purpose of maximizing the total profit of the facing period; and (3) a double-layer simulation-based optimization model to obtain the optimal time-varying hedging rules using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, whose objectives were to minimize maximum water deficit and maximize water supply reliability. The water-supply system of Li River in Guangxi Province, China, was selected for the case study. The results show that the operating policy proposed in this study is better than conventional operating rules and aggregated standard operating policy for both water supply and hydropower generation due to the use of hedging mechanism and effective coordination among multiple objectives.

Unchartered innovation? Local reforms of national formal water management in the Mkoji sub-catchment, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehari, Abraham; Koppen, Barbara Van; McCartney, Matthew; Lankford, Bruce

Tanzania is currently attempting to improve water resources management through formal water rights and water fees systems, and formal institutions. The water rights system is expected to facilitate water allocation. The water fees system aims at cost-recovery for water resources management services. To enhance community involvement in water management, Water User Associations (WUAs) are being established and, in areas with growing upstream-downstream conflicts, apex bodies of all users along the stressed river stretch. The Mkoji sub-catchment (MSC) in the Rufiji basin is one of the first where these formal water management systems are being attempted. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of these systems in the light of their expected merits and the consequences of the juxtaposition of contemporary laws with traditional approaches. The study employed mainly qualitative, but also quantitative approaches on social and technical variables. Major findings were: (1) a good mix of formal (water fees and WUAs) and traditional (rotation-based water sharing, the Zamu) systems improved village-level water management services and reduced intra-scheme conflicts; (2) the water rights system has not brought abstractions into line with allocations and (3) so far, the MSC Apex body failed to mitigate inter-scheme conflicts. A more sophisticated design of allocation infrastructure and institutions is recommended.

The relationship between prevalence of active trachoma, water availability and its use in a Tanzanian village.

PubMed

Polack, Sarah; Kuper, Hannah; Solomon, Anthony W; Massae, Patrick A; Abuelo, Carolina; Cameron, Ewen; Valdmanis, Vivian; Mahande, Michael; Foster, Allen; Mabey, David

2006-11-01

This study aimed to establish the relationship between the prevalence of active trachoma in children, water availability and household water use in a village in Tanzania. Nine hundred and fourteen children aged 1-9 years were examined for signs of trachoma. Data were collected on time taken to collect water, amount of water collected and other trachoma risk factors. In a sub-study, 99 randomly selected households were visited twice daily on two consecutive days to document patterns of water use. The prevalence of active trachoma in the children examined was 18.4% (95% CI 15.9-20.9). Active trachoma prevalence increased with increasing water collection time (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.13-4.46) but was unrelated to the amount of water collected. In the sub-study, active trachoma prevalence was substantially lower in children from households where more water was used for personal hygiene (P for trend < or =0.01), independent of the total amount of water used. The allocation of water to hygiene was predicted by lower water collection time. The key element in the relationship between water availability and trachoma is the allocation of water within households. Collection time may influence both the quantity of water collected and its allocation within the household.

Equilibrium approach towards water resource management and pollution control in coal chemical industrial park.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuping; Hou, Shuhua; Xie, Heping; Lv, Chengwei; Yao, Liming

2018-08-01

In this study, an integrated water and waste load allocation model is proposed to assist decision makers in better understanding the trade-offs between economic growth, resource utilization, and environmental protection of coal chemical industries which characteristically have high water consumption and pollution. In the decision framework, decision makers in a same park, each of whom have different goals and preferences, work together to seek a collective benefit. Similar to a Stackelberg-Nash game, the proposed approach illuminates the decision making interrelationships and involves in the conflict coordination between the park authority and the individual coal chemical company stockholders. In the proposed method, to response to climate change and other uncertainties, a risk assessment tool, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and uncertainties through reflecting parameters and coefficients using probability and fuzzy set theory are integrated in the modeling process. Then a case study from Yuheng coal chemical park is presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the optimization model. To reasonable search the potential consequences of different responses to water and waste load allocation strategies, a number of scenario results considering environmental uncertainty and decision maker' attitudes are examined to explore the tradeoffs between economic development and environmental protection and decision makers' objectives. The results are helpful for decision/police makers to adjust current strategies adapting for current changes. Based on the scenario analyses and discussion, some propositions and operational policies are given and sensitive adaptation strategies are presented to support the efficient, balanced and sustainable development of coal chemical industrial parks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pollution control costs of a transboundary river basin: Empirical tests of the fairness and stability of cost allocation mechanisms using game theory.

PubMed

Shi, Guang-Ming; Wang, Jin-Nan; Zhang, Bing; Zhang, Zhe; Zhang, Yong-Liang

2016-07-15

With rapid economic growth, transboundary river basin pollution in China has become a very serious problem. Based on practical experience in other countries, cooperation among regions is an economic way to control the emission of pollutants. This study develops a game theoretic simulation model to analyze the cost effectiveness of reducing water pollutant emissions in four regions of the Jialu River basin while considering the stability and fairness of four cost allocation schemes. Different schemes (the nucleolus, the weak nucleolus, the Shapley value and the Separable Cost Remaining Benefit (SCRB) principle) are used to allocate regionally agreed-upon water pollutant abatement costs. The main results show that the fully cooperative coalition yielded the highest incremental gain for regions willing to cooperate if each region agreed to negotiate by transferring part of the incremental gain obtained from the cooperation to cover the losses of other regions. In addition, these allocation schemes produce different outcomes in terms of their fairness to the players and in terms of their derived stability, as measured by the Shapley-Shubik Power Index and the Propensity to Disrupt. Although the Shapley value and the SCRB principle exhibit superior fairness and stabilization to the other methods, only the SCRB principle may maintains full cooperation among regions over the long term. The results provide clear empirical evidence that regional gain allocation may affect the sustainability of cooperation. Therefore, it is implied that not only the cost-effectiveness but also the long-term sustainability should be considered while formulating and implementing environmental policies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating farmer behaviour under water markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padula, SIlvia; Erfani, Tohid; Henriques, Catarina; Maziotis, Alexandros; Garbe, Jennifer; Swinscoe, Thomas; Harou, Julien; Weatherhead, Keith; Beevers, Lindsay; Fleskens, Luuk

2015-04-01

Increasing water scarcity may lead water managers to consider alternative approaches to water allocation including water markets. One concern with markets is how will specific sectors interact with a potential water market, when will they gain or loose water and will they benefit economically - why, when and how? The behaviours of different individual abstractors or institutional actors under water markets is of interest to regulators who seek to design effective market policies which satisfy multiple stakeholder groups. In this study we consider two dozen agricultural water users in eastern England (Nar basin). Using partially synthetic but regionally representative cropping and irrigation data we simulate the buying and selling behaviour of farmers on a weekly basis over multiple years. The impact of on-farm water storage is assessed for farmers who own a reservoir. A river-basin-scale hydro-economic multi-agent model is used that represents individual abstractors and can simulate a spot market under various licensing regimes. Weekly varying economic demand curves for water are calibrated based on historical climate and water use data. The model represents the trade-off between current use value and expected gains from trade to reach weekly decisions. Early results are discussed and model limitations and possible extensions are presented.

Vulnerability and resilience to droughts in South-West USA: carbon allocation and impact on wood and evaporative anatomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerin, M. F.; von Arx, G.; McDowell, N. G.; Pockman, W.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Gentine, P.

2015-12-01

Survival and distribution of conifers across the globe will depend on their adaptive potential to the new climatic conditions (warmer, more droughts, heat waves). Recent studies predicting forest evolution have mainly focused on understanding tree mortality processes (hydraulic failure, carbon starvation, biotic stresses). These explicit causes of mortality are also the result of unsuccessful adaptation on a longer period. Using a 7 years drought-irrigation experiment in New Mexico, USA, we investigated the response to water availability on structure-function interactions at the tree level. Bridging dendrology and physiology on multiple individuals of local Pinion pine, we observe a structural dynamics in i) wood anatomy ii) evaporative anatomy and a resulting functional dynamics in i) leaf water potential and ii) water use efficiency on multiple time scales (daily to interannual). These results emphasize the tight coupling between carbon allocation and the surface hydrologic cycle on longer time scales and its impact on resilience and mortality, which is not included in current generation land-surface models. figure: Wood anatomy obtained from a 5.2mm core of a Pinion Edulis from the experimental site - illustrating the variability of the water transport capacities accross years

Towards an equitable allocation of the cost of a global change adaptation plan at the river basin scale: going beyond the perfect cooperation assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velázquez, Manuel

2015-04-01

Adaptation to global change is a key issue in the planning of water resource systems in a changing world. Adaptation has to be efficient, but also equitable in the share of the costs of joint adaptation at the river basin scale. Least-cost hydro-economic optimization models have been helpful at defining efficient adaptation strategies. However, they often rely on the assumption of a "perfect cooperation" among the stakeholders, required for reaching the optimal solution. Nowadays, most adaptation decisions have to be agreed among the different actors in charge of their implementation, thus challenging the validity of a perfect command-and-control solution. As a first attempt to over-pass this limitation, our work presents a method to allocate the cost of an efficient adaptation programme of measures among the different stakeholders at the river basin scale. Principles of equity are used to define cost allocation scenarios from different perspectives, combining elements from cooperative game theory and axioms from social justice to bring some "food for thought" in the decision making process of adaptation. To illustrate the type of interactions between stakeholders in a river basin, the method has been applied in a French case study, the Orb river basin. Located on the northern rim of the Mediterranean Sea, this river basin is experiencing changes in demand patterns, and its water resources will be impacted by climate change, calling for the design of an adaptation plan. A least-cost river basin optimization model (LCRBOM) has been developed under GAMS to select the combination of demand- and supply-side adaptation measures that allows meeting quantitative water management targets at the river basin scale in a global change context. The optimal adaptation plan encompasses measures in both agricultural and urban sectors, up-stream and down-stream of the basin, disregarding the individual interests of the stakeholders. In order to ensure equity in the cost allocation of the adaptation plan, different allocation scenarios are considered. The LCRBOM allows defining a solution space based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the core of the game), and then, to define equitable allocation of the cost of the programme of measures (the Shapley value and the nucleolus). Moreover, alternative allocation scenarios have been considered based on axiomatic principles of social justice, such as "utilitarian", "prior rights" or "strict equality", applied in the case study area. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios brings insight to inform the decision making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of adaptation plan. The study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project /CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) from the Spanish ministry MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds. Corentin Girard is supported by a grant from the University Lecturer Training Program (FPU12/03803) of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports of Spain.

Scale Issues in Modeling the Water Resources Sector in National Economic Models: A Case study of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strzepek, K. M.; Kirshen, P.; Yohe, G.

2001-05-01

The fundamental theme of this research was to investigate tradeoffs in model resolution for modeling water resources in the context of national economic development and capital investment decisions.. Based on a case study of China, the research team has developed water resource models at relatively fine scales, then investigated how they can be aggregated to regional or national scales and for use in national level planning decisions or global scale integrated assessment models of food and/or environmental change issues. The team has developed regional water supply and water demand functions.. Simplifying and aggregating the supply and demand functions will allow reduced form functions of the water sector for inclusion in large scale national economic models. Water Supply Cost functions were developed looking at both surface and groundwater supplies. Surface Water: Long time series of flows at the mouths of the 36 major river sub-basins in China are used in conjunction with different basin reservoir storage quantities to obtain storage-yield curves. These are then combined with reservoir and transmission cost data to obtain yield-cost or surface water demand curves. The methodology to obtain the long time series of flows for each basin is to fit a simple abcd water balance model to each basin. The costs of reservoir storage have been estimated by using a methodology developed in the USA that relates marginal storage costs to existing storage, slope and geological conditions. USA costs functions have then been adjusted to Chinese costs. The costs of some actual dams in China were used to "ground-truth" the methodology. Groundwater: The purpose of the groundwater work is to estimate the recharge in each basin, and the depths and quality of water of aquifers. A byproduct of the application of the abcd water balance model is the recharge. Depths and quality of aquifers are being taken from many separate reports on groundwater in different parts of China; we have been unable to find any global or regional datasets of groundwater.. Combining Surface and Groundwater Supply Functions Water Demand Curves. Water Use data is reported on political regions. Water Supply is reported and modeled on river basin regions. It is necessary to allocate water demands to river basins. To accomplish this China's 9 major river basins were divided into 36 hydroeconomic regions. The counties were then allocated to one of the 36-hydroeconomic zones. The county-level water use data was aggregated to 5 major water use sectors: 1)industry; 2)urban municipal and vegetable gardens: 3) major irrigation; 4) Energy and 5)Other agriculture (forestry, pasture; fishery). Sectoral Demand functions that include price and income elasticity were developed for the 5 sectors for each of the 9 major river basin. The supply and demand curves were aggregated at a variety of geographical scales as well as levels of economic sectoral aggregation. Implications for investment and sustainable development policies were examined for the various aggregation using partial and general equilibrium modeling of the Chinese economy. These results and policy implications for China as well as insights and recommendation for other developing countries will be presented.

18 CFR 367.17 - Comprehensive inter-period income tax allocation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Comprehensive inter... NATURAL GAS ACT General Instructions § 367.17 Comprehensive inter-period income tax allocation. (a) Where... tax method. In general, comprehensive inter-period tax allocation should be followed whenever...

Application of cooperative and non-cooperative games in large-scale water quantity and quality management: a case study.

PubMed

Mahjouri, Najmeh; Ardestani, Mojtaba

2011-01-01

In this paper, two cooperative and non-cooperative methodologies are developed for a large-scale water allocation problem in Southern Iran. The water shares of the water users and their net benefits are determined using optimization models having economic objectives with respect to the physical and environmental constraints of the system. The results of the two methodologies are compared based on the total obtained economic benefit, and the role of cooperation in utilizing a shared water resource is demonstrated. In both cases, the water quality in rivers satisfies the standards. Comparing the results of the two mentioned approaches shows the importance of acting cooperatively to achieve maximum revenue in utilizing a surface water resource while the river water quantity and quality issues are addressed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Letsoalo, A.; Blignaut, J.; de Wet, T.

The South African government is exploring ways to address water scarcity problems by introducing a water resource management charge on the quantity of water used in sectors such as irrigated agriculture, mining, and forestry. It is expected that a more efficient water allocation, lower use, and a positive impact on poverty can be achieved. This paper reports on the validity of these claims by applying a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the triple dividend of water consumption charges in South Africa: reduced water use, more rapid economic growth, and a more equal income distribution. It is shown that anmore » appropriate budget-neutral combination of water charges, particularly on irrigated agriculture and coal mining, and reduced indirect taxes, particularly on food, would yield triple dividends, that is, less water use, more growth, and less poverty.« less

18 CFR 366.5 - Allocation of costs for non-power goods and services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Allocation of costs for non-power goods and services. 366.5 Section 366.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL... ACT OF 2005, FEDERAL POWER ACT AND NATURAL GAS ACT BOOKS AND RECORDS Definitions and Provisions Under...

18 CFR 366.5 - Allocation of costs for non-power goods and services.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Allocation of costs for non-power goods and services. 366.5 Section 366.5 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL... ACT OF 2005, FEDERAL POWER ACT AND NATURAL GAS ACT BOOKS AND RECORDS Definitions and Provisions Under...

Regional Responses to Constrained Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Y.; Calvin, K. V.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Kim, S. H.; Patel, P.

2017-12-01

There have been many concerns about water as a constraint to agricultural production, electricity generation, and many other human activities in the coming decades. Nevertheless, how different countries/economies would respond to such constraints has not been explored. Here, we examine the responding mechanism of binding water availability constraints at the water basin level and across a wide range of socioeconomic, climate and energy technology scenarios. Specifically, we look at the change in water withdrawals between energy, land-use and other sectors within an integrated framework, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) that also endogenizes water use and allocation decisions based on costs. We find that, when water is taken into account as part of the production decision-making, countries/basins in general fall into three different categories, depending on the change of water withdrawals and water re-allocation between sectors. First, water is not a constraining factor for most of the basins. Second, advancements in water-saving technologies of the electricity generation cooling systems are sufficient of reducing water withdrawals to meet binding water availability constraints, such as in China and the EU-15. Third, water-saving in the electricity sector alone is not sufficient and thus cannot make up the lowered water availability from the binding case; for example, many basins in Pakistan, Middle East and India have to largely reduce irrigated water withdrawals by either switching to rain-fed agriculture or reducing production. The dominant responding strategy for individual countries/basins is quite robust across the range of alternate scenarios that we test. The relative size of water withdrawals between energy and agriculture sectors is one of the most important factors that affect the dominant mechanism.

The Integrated Role of Water Availability, Nutrient Dynamics, and Xylem Hydraulic Dysfunction on Plant Rooting Strategies in Managed and Natural Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, D. S.; Savoy, P.; Pleban, J. R.; Tai, X.; Ewers, B. E.

2015-12-01

Plants adapt or acclimate to changing environments in part by allocating biomass to roots and leaves to strike a balance between water and nutrient uptake requirements on the one hand and growth and hydraulic safety on the other hand. In a recent study examining experimental drought with the TREES model, which couples plant ecophysiology with rhizosphere-and-xylem hydraulics, we hypothesized that the asynchronous nature of soil water availability and xylem repair supported root-to-leaf area (RLA) proportionality that favored long-term survival over short-term carbon gain or water use. To investigate this as a possible general principal of plant adjustment to changing environmental conditions, TREES was modified to allocate carbon to fine and coarse roots organized in ten orders differing in biomass allocated per unit absorbing root area, root lifespan, and total absorbing root area in each of several soil-root zones with depth. The expanded model allowed for adjustment of absorbing root area and rhizosphere volume based on available carbohydrate production and nitrogen (N) availability, resulting in dynamic expansion and contraction of the supply-side of the rhizosphere-plant hydraulics and N uptake capacity in response to changing environmental conditions and plant-environment asynchrony. The study was conducted partly in a controlled experimental setting with six genotypes of a widely grown crop species, Brassica rapa. The implications for forests were investigated in controlled experiments and at Fluxnet sites representing temperate mixed forests, semi-arid evergreen needle-leaf, and Mediterranean biomes. The results showed that the effects of N deficiency on total plant growth was modulated by a relative increase in fine root biomass representing a larger absorbing root volume per unit biomass invested. We found that the total absorbing root area per unit leaf area was consistently lower than that needed to maximize short-term water uptake and carbohydrate gain. Moreover, the acclimated RLA fell within a small range for both crops and trees despite changing environmental conditions, demonstrating an adaptation that was consistent with empiricism on fine roots and thus pointing to a fundamental connection between ecological and hydrological processes.

Web-Based Water Accounting Scenario Platform to Address Uncertainties in Water Resources Management in the Mekong : A Case Study in Ca River Basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apirumanekul, C.; Purkey, D. R.; Pudashine, J.; Seifollahi-Aghmiuni, S.; Wang, D.; Ate, P.; Meechaiya, C.

2017-12-01

Rapid economic development in the Mekong Region is placing pressure on environmental resources. Uncertain changes in land-use, increasing urbanization, infrastructure development, migration patterns and climate risks s combined with scarce water resources are increasing water demand in various sectors. More appropriate policies, strategies and planning for sustainable water resource management are urgently needed. Over the last five years, Vietnam has experienced more frequent and intense droughts affecting agricultural and domestic water use during the dry season. The Ca River Basin is the third largest river basin in Vietnam with 35% of its area located in Lao PDR. The delta landscape comprises natural vegetation, forest, paddy fields, farming and urban areas. The Ca River Basin is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that impacts on crop production, farming livelihoods and household water consumption. Water scarcity is exacerbated by uncertainties in policy changes (e.g. changes in land-use, crop types), basin development (e.g. reservoir construction, urban expansion), and climate change (e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and onset of monsoon). The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model, with inputs from satellite-based information and institutional data, is used to estimate water supply, water use and water allocation in various sectors (e.g. household, crops, irrigation and flood control) under a wide range of plausible future scenarios in the Ca River Basin. Web-Based Water Allocation Scenario Platform is an online implementation of WEAP model structured in terms of a gaming experience. The online game, as an educational tool, helps key agencies relevant to water resources management understand and explore the complexity of integrated system of river basin under a wide range of scenarios. Performance of the different water resources strategies in Ca River Basin (e.g. change of dam operation to address needs in various sectors, construction of dams, changes in cropping patterns and increasing irrigation diversion) under a wide range of uncertainties will be assessed. The game allows stakeholders to participate in a realistic game that requires them to make choices amongst various water management strategies with the goal of improving water management towards greater sustainability.

A Water-Withdrawal Input-Output Model of the Indian Economy.

PubMed

Bogra, Shelly; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Mathur, Ritu

2016-02-02

Managing freshwater allocation for a highly populated and growing economy like India can benefit from knowledge about the effect of economic activities. This study transforms the 2003-2004 economic input-output (IO) table of India into a water withdrawal input-output model to quantify direct and indirect flows. This unique model is based on a comprehensive database compiled from diverse public sources, and estimates direct and indirect water withdrawal of all economic sectors. It distinguishes between green (rainfall), blue (surface and ground), and scarce groundwater. Results indicate that the total direct water withdrawal is nearly 3052 billion cubic meter (BCM) and 96% of this is used in agriculture sectors with the contribution of direct green water being about 1145 BCM, excluding forestry. Apart from 727 BCM direct blue water withdrawal for agricultural, other significant users include "Electricity" with 64 BCM, "Water supply" with 44 BCM and other industrial sectors with nearly 14 BCM. "Construction", "miscellaneous food products"; "Hotels and restaurants"; "Paper, paper products, and newsprint" are other significant indirect withdrawers. The net virtual water import is found to be insignificant compared to direct water used in agriculture nationally, while scarce ground water associated with crops is largely contributed by northern states.

Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Lall, Upmanu; Porto, Rubem La Laina

2008-12-01

As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency's economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of "Law and Economics," with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

Task Allocation of Wasps Governed by Common Stomach: A Model Based on Electric Circuits

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Simple regulatory mechanisms based on the idea of the saturable ‘common stomach’ can control the regulation of construction behavior and colony-level responses to environmental perturbations in Metapolybia wasp societies. We mapped the different task groups to mutual inductance electrical circuits and used Kirchoff’s basic voltage laws to build a model that uses master equations from physics, yet is able to provide strong predictions for this complex biological phenomenon. Similar to real colonies, independently of the initial conditions, the system shortly sets into an equilibrium, which provides optimal task allocation for a steady construction, depending on the influx of accessible water. The system is very flexible and in the case of perturbations, it reallocates its workforce and adapts to the new situation with different equilibrium levels. Similar to the finding of field studies, decreasing any task groups caused decrease of construction; increasing or decreasing water inflow stimulated or reduced the work of other task groups while triggering compensatory behavior in water foragers. We also showed that only well connected circuits are able to produce adequate construction and this agrees with the finding that this type of task partitioning only exists in larger colonies. Studying the buffer properties of the common stomach and its effect on the foragers revealed that it provides stronger negative feedback to the water foragers, while the connection between the pulp foragers and the common stomach has a strong fixed-point attractor, as evidenced by the dissipative trajectory. PMID:27861633

Integrated systems optimization model for biofuel development: The influence of environmental constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Housh, M.; Ng, T.; Cai, X.

2012-12-01

The environmental impact is one of the major concerns of biofuel development. While many other studies have examined the impact of biofuel expansion on stream flow and water quality, this study examines the problem from the other side - will and how a biofuel production target be affected by given environmental constraints. For this purpose, an integrated model comprises of different sub-systems of biofuel refineries, transportation, agriculture, water resources and crops/ethanol market has been developed. The sub-systems are integrated into one large-scale model to guide the optimal development plan considering the interdependency between the subsystems. The optimal development plan includes biofuel refineries location and capacity, refinery operation, land allocation between biofuel and food crops, and the corresponding stream flow and nitrate load in the watershed. The watershed is modeled as a network flow, in which the nodes represent sub-watersheds and the arcs are defined as the linkage between the sub-watersheds. The runoff contribution of each sub-watershed is determined based on the land cover and the water uses in that sub-watershed. Thus, decisions of other sub-systems such as the land allocation in the land use sub-system and the water use in the refinery sub-system define the sources and the sinks of the network. Environmental policies will be addressed in the integrated model by imposing stream flow and nitrate load constraints. These constraints can be specified by location and time in the watershed to reflect the spatial and temporal variation of the regulations. Preliminary results show that imposing monthly water flow constraints and yearly nitrate load constraints will change the biofuel development plan dramatically. Sensitivity analysis is performed to examine how the environmental constraints and their spatial and the temporal distribution influence the overall biofuel development plan and the performance of each of the sub-systems. Additional scenarios are analyzed to show the synergies of crop pattern choice (first versus second generation of biofuel crops), refinery technology adaptation (particularly on water use), refinery plant distribution, and economic incentives in terms of balanced environmental protection and bioenergy development objectives.

A social choice-based methodology for treated wastewater reuse in urban and suburban areas.

PubMed

Mahjouri, Najmeh; Pourmand, Ehsan

2017-07-01

Reusing treated wastewater for supplying water demands such as landscape and agricultural irrigation in urban and suburban areas has become a major water supply approach especially in regions struggling with water shortage. Due to limited available treated wastewater to satisfy all water demands, conflicts may arise in allocating treated wastewater to water users. Since there is usually more than one decision maker and more than one criterion to measure the impact of each water allocation scenario, effective tools are needed to combine individual preferences to reach a collective decision. In this paper, a new social choice (SC) method, which can consider some indifference thresholds for decision makers, is proposed for evaluating and ranking treated wastewater and urban runoff allocation scenarios to water users in urban and suburban areas. Some SC methods, namely plurality voting, Borda count, pairwise comparisons, Hare system, dictatorship, and approval voting, are applied for comparing and evaluating the results. Different scenarios are proposed for allocating treated wastewater and urban runoff to landscape irrigation, agricultural lands as well as artificial recharge of aquifer in the Tehran metropolitan Area, Iran. The main stakeholders rank the proposed scenarios based on their utilities using two different approaches. The proposed method suggests ranking of the scenarios based on the stakeholders' utilities and considering the scores they assigned to each scenario. Comparing the results of the proposed method with those of six different SC methods shows that the obtained ranks are mostly in compliance with the social welfare.

Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

2015-12-01

A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

Evaluating the sources of water to wells: Three techniques for metamodeling of a groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Feinstein, Daniel T.

2016-01-01

For decision support, the insights and predictive power of numerical process models can be hampered by insufficient expertise and computational resources required to evaluate system response to new stresses. An alternative is to emulate the process model with a statistical “metamodel.” Built on a dataset of collocated numerical model input and output, a groundwater flow model was emulated using a Bayesian Network, an Artificial neural network, and a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. The response of interest was surface water depletion expressed as the source of water-to-wells. The results have application for managing allocation of groundwater. Each technique was tuned using cross validation and further evaluated using a held-out dataset. A numerical MODFLOW-USG model of the Lake Michigan Basin, USA, was used for the evaluation. The performance and interpretability of each technique was compared pointing to advantages of each technique. The metamodel can extend to unmodeled areas.

Production and carbon allocation in a clonal Eucalyptus plantation with water and nutrient manipulations

Treesearch

Jose Luiz Stape; Dan Binkley; Michael G. Ryan

2008-01-01

We examined resource limitations on growth and carbon allocation in a fast-growing, clonal plantation of Eucalyptus grandis urophylla in Brazil by characterizing responses to annual rainfall, and response to irrigation and fertililization for 2 years. Productivity measures included gross primary production (GPP), total belowground carbon allocation (...

Economic Effects of Reservoir Re-operation Policy in the Rio Grande/Bravo for Sustainable Human and Environmental Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Partida, J. P.; Sandoval Solis, S.; Lane, B.

2015-12-01

A central challenge of integrated water management is the design and implementation of policies to allocate water to both humans and the environment in a sustainable manner. This study uses the results from a reach-scale water-planning model to quantify and compare the economic benefits of two water management policies: (1) a business as usual (Baseline) policy and (2) a proposed reservoir re-operation policy to provide environmental flows (EFs). Results show that the EF policy would increase water supply profit, slightly decrease recreational activities profit, and reduce costs from flood damage and environmental restoration compared to the Baseline policy. In addition to supporting ecological objectives, the proposed EF policy would increase the economic benefits of water management objectives.

A coupled agronomic-economic model to consider allocation of brackish irrigation water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Gal, Alon; Weikard, Hans-Peter; Shah, Syed Hamid Hussain; van der Zee, Sjoerd E. A. T. M.

2013-05-01

In arid and semiarid regions, irrigation water is scarce and often contains high concentrations of salts. To reduce negative effects on crop yields, the irrigated amounts must include water for leaching and therefore exceed evapotranspiration. The leachate (drainage) water returns to water sources such as rivers or groundwater aquifers and increases their level of salinity and the leaching requirement for irrigation water of any sequential user. We develop a conceptual sequential (upstream-downstream) model of irrigation that predicts crop yields and water consumption and tracks the water flow and level of salinity along a river dependent on irrigation management decisions. The model incorporates an agro-physical model of plant response to environmental conditions including feedbacks. For a system with limited water resources, the model examines the impacts of water scarcity, salinity and technically inefficient application on yields for specific crop, soil, and climate conditions. Moving beyond the formulation of a conceptual frame, we apply the model to the irrigation of Capsicum annum on Arava Sandy Loam soil. We show for this case how water application could be distributed between upstream and downstream plots or farms. We identify those situations where it is beneficial to trade water from upstream to downstream farms (assuming that the upstream farm holds the water rights). We find that water trade will improve efficiency except when loss levels are low. We compute the marginal value of water, i.e., the price water would command on a market, for different levels of water scarcity, salinity and levels of water loss.

Evaluating Water Conservation and Reuse Policies Using a Dynamic Water Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R.

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Triple dividends of water consumption charges in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letsoalo, Anthony; Blignaut, James; de Wet, Theuns; de Wit, Martin; Hess, Sebastiaan; Tol, Richard S. J.; van Heerden, Jan

2007-05-01

The South African government is exploring ways to address water scarcity problems by introducing a water resource management charge on the quantity of water used in sectors such as irrigated agriculture, mining, and forestry. It is expected that a more efficient water allocation, lower use, and a positive impact on poverty can be achieved. This paper reports on the validity of these claims by applying a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the triple dividend of water consumption charges in South Africa: reduced water use, more rapid economic growth, and a more equal income distribution. It is shown that an appropriate budget-neutral combination of water charges, particularly on irrigated agriculture and coal mining, and reduced indirect taxes, particularly on food, would yield triple dividends, that is, less water use, more growth, and less poverty.

Sources of water to wells in updip areas of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, Gloucester and Camden Counties, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watt, Martha K.; Voronin, Lois M.

2006-01-01

Since 1996, when the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) restricted ground-water withdrawals from the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in the southern New Jersey Coastal Plain as a result of excessive drawdown, Coastal Plain communities have been interested in developing alternate sources of water supply for their residents. The use of ground water from areas near the updip parts of the overlying confined aquifers where withdrawals are not restricted is being considered to meet the demand for drinking water. Concerns have arisen, however, regarding the potential effects of increased withdrawals from these areas on ground-water flow to streams and wetlands as well as to the deeper, confined parts of the aquifers. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, conducted a study to investigate the sources of water to currently inactive wells in the updip part of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer in Gloucester and Camden Counties, New Jersey. Of particular interest is whether the primary source of the increased withdrawals is likely to be the aquifer outcrop or the downdip, confined part of the aquifer. The outcrop of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer covers nearly 8 mi2 (square miles), or about 46 percent of Deptford Township's 17.56-mi2 area. The Deptford Township Municipal Utilities Authority owns six currently (2005) inactive wells in the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer at the southeastern boundary of Deptford Township, 1.25 mi (miles) from the outcrop. For the purposes of this study, an existing ground-water-flow model of the New Jersey Coastal Plain aquifers was used to simulate ground-water-flow conditions in Gloucester and Camden Counties in 1998. Two alternative withdrawal scenarios were superimposed on the results of the 1998 simulation. In the first (the 'full-allocation' scenario), full-allocation withdrawal rates established by the NJDEP were applied to 45 existing wells in the Deptford Township area. In the second (the 'additional-withdrawal' scenario), the full-allocation scenario was modified by adding an additional withdrawal of 1.62 million gallons per day from the six inactive Deptford Township withdrawal wells. Simulated drawdown for the full-allocation scenario is zero to near zero in Deptford Township. Changes are greatest downdip from Deptford Township, where a broad area of 5- to 10-ft (feet) drawdowns is simulated; maximum drawdown at the center of the cone of depression is 20 ft. Water levels declined as much as 10 ft around individual wells whose current withdrawals are only a small percentage of their allotted allocation. Simulated drawdown for the additional-withdrawal scenario exceeds 40 ft and is centered around the six inactive Deptford Township withdrawal wells. The area in which the simulated drawdown is 5 ft extends approximately 3.75 mi downdip from the wells and 2 mi updip, into the outcrop. Water budgets based on the simulation results for the full-allocation and additional-withdrawal scenarios were calculated and compared, with particular focus on a 75-mi2 area in and around Deptford Township that includes the outcrop of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and part of the area downdip from the outcrop (budget zone 2). The comparison of the two water budgets for zone 2 shows that 46 percent of the withdrawals from the six inactive Deptford Township wells would result from reduced stream base flow in the outcrop of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer and 35 percent would result from increased downward flow from the overlying Vincentown aquifer. Four percent would result from increased flow from the downdip areas of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, 5 percent would result from decreased flow to the downdip areas of the Wenonah-Mount Laurel aquifer, and 5 percent would result from decreased flow to the underlying Englishtown aquifer system. The remaining 4 percent was attributed to decreased upward flow to the overlying Vincentown aquifer.

An exploration of Bureau of Reclamation approaches for managing conflict over diverging science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkardt, Nina; Ruell, Emily; Clark, Douglas

2008-01-01

As a major institutional agent supplying Western water resources, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) provides important leadership, technical, and financial resources in water management, serving as the West's "water broker" (Bowersox 2000; Pisani 2003). In recent years, growing numbers of constituencies using water and the over-allocation of water resources have contributed to conflict over the resource in the American West (National Research Council 2004). Although the conflicts arise from many sources, one common theme is that Reclamation managers often must make decisions about water use and allocation when scientific studies provide uncertain or competing recommendations. We conducted a preliminary study of Reclamation water managers and water scientists to try to understand the approaches or techniques they use or consider useful for dealing with scientific conflicts over water allocation and how these compare to techniques found in the relevant literature. We report the results of (1) an electronic survey of Reclamation senior managers and (2) a panel discussion amongst Reclamation senior managers as to the current institutional capabilities for managing diverging scientific findings in water dispute resolution processes. We conclude with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of the different tools and techniques managers reported in the survey and in the panel discussion.

A Holistic Framework for Deriving Equitable Apportionments and Resolving Conflicts in Transboundary Watercourses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyagi, H.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

2017-12-01

Climate uncertainty & perpetually rising freshwater demands have emerged as the biggest threat to global water security. Consequently, water disputes have become more frequent & intense. If such conflicts remain unresolved for long, eventually they may cause severe socio-political damage to the riparians. The present study develops a comprehensive framework for conflict resolution & equitable allocation in transboundary Ganges watercourse with 4 stakeholder nations: China (Tibet), Nepal, India & Bangladesh. Scientific spatio-temporal information can be of great help in transboundary dispute resolution. Hence, this study employs a GIS-based semi-distributed SWAT hydrologic model for estimating water balance at different scales within the basin for present & future climate, landuse, storage & water use efficiency scenarios. The study analyses pertinent provisions of the Indian Constitution & examines the rulings of Indian water tribunals. It also critically compares various water dispute resolution mechanisms & doctrines on the barometer of equity & fairness to arrive at a procedurally & distributionally just water apportionment policy. The study makes use of Methods of Apportionments, Operations Research & Bankruptcy Rules to operationalize the chosen doctrine by devising an objective & quantifiable formulae for water allocation amongst the co-basin states for a range of flows. Furthermore, Game Theoretic and multi-optimization techniques have been used to rank the appropriateness of the above mentioned methods according to aggregate satisfaction/resentment of the stakeholders computed by equating their respective water claims with actual water shares obtained by them under different methods. Moreover, several Social Choice Theory methods have been employed to rate the performance of water allotment methods in a socio-political setting. The developed framework can thus be of great help for decision makers in effective water conflict resolution as transboundary basins cover nearly half of world's total land surface & there are high chances of water disputes in such transnational rivers.

Modeling Limited Foresight in Water Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R.

2005-12-01

The inability to forecast future water supplies means that their management inevitably occurs under situations of limited foresight. Three modeling problems arise, first what type of objective function is a manager with limited foresight optimizing? Second how can we measure these objectives? Third can objective functions that incorporate uncertainty be integrated within the structure of optimizing water management models? The paper reviews the concepts of relative risk aversion and intertemporal substitution that underlie stochastic dynamic preference functions. Some initial results from the estimation of such functions for four different dam operations in northern California are presented and discussed. It appears that the path of previous water decisions and states influences the decision-makers willingness to trade off water supplies between periods. A compromise modeling approach that incorporates carry-over value functions under limited foresight within a broader net work optimal water management model is developed. The approach uses annual carry-over value functions derived from small dimension stochastic dynamic programs embedded within a larger dimension water allocation network. The disaggregation of the carry-over value functions to the broader network is extended using the space rule concept. Initial results suggest that the solution of such annual nonlinear network optimizations is comparable to, or faster than, the solution of linear network problems over long time series.

Simulating Energy, Water and Carbon Fluxes at the Shortgrass Steppe Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.; Morgan, J. A.; Burke, I. C.

2005-12-01

Coupled atmospheric-biospheric models are a particularly valuable tool for studying the potential effects of land-use and land-cover changes on the near-surface atmosphere since the atmosphere and biosphere are allowed to dynamically interact through the surface and canopy energy balance. GEMRAMS is a coupled atmospheric-biospheric model comprised of an atmospheric model, RAMS, and an ecophysiological process-based model, GEMTM. In the first part of this study, the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) scheme, LEAF2, from RAMS, coupled with GEMTM, are used to simulate energy, water and carbon fluxes over different cropping systems (winter wheat and irrigated corn) and over a mixed C3/C4 shortgrass prairie located at the USDA-ARS Central Plains Experimental Range near Nunn, Colorado, the LTER Shortgrass Steppe site. The new SVAT scheme, GEMLEAF, is forced with air temperature and humidity, wind speed and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). Calculated canopy temperature and relative humidity, soil moisture and temperature and PAR are used to compute sunlit/shaded leaf photosynthesis (for C3 and C4 plant types) and respiration. Photosynthate is allocated to leaves, shoots, roots and reproductive organs with variable partition coefficients, which are functions of soil water conditions. As water stress increases, the fraction of photosynthate allocated to root growth increases. Leaf area index (LAI) is estimated from daily leaf biomass growth, using the vegetation-prescribed specific leaf area. Canopy conductance, computed and based on photosynthesis and relative humidity, is used to calculate latent heat flux. Simulated energy and CO2 fluxes are compared to observations collected using Bowen ratio flux towers during two growing seasons. Seasonality of the fluxes reflecting different plant phenologies agrees well with the observed patterns. In the second part of this study, simulations for two clear days are performed with GEMRAMS over a model domain centered at the SGS site. Simulated spatial differences in the energy fluxes can be associated with the highly heterogeneous landscape in this area.

77 FR 67663 - Notice of Availability of the Proposed Land Use Plan Amendments for Allocation of Oil Shale and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-13

... quality, climate change, water quality and quantity, socio- economic concerns, wildlife concerns, and...] Notice of Availability of the Proposed Land Use Plan Amendments for Allocation of Oil Shale and Tar Sands... (BLM) has prepared the Proposed Resource Management Plan (RMP) Amendments for Allocation of Oil Shale...

The response of belowground carbon allocation in forests to global change

Treesearch

Christian P. Giardina; Mark Coleman; Dan Binkley; Jessica Hancock; John S. King; Erik Lilleskov; Wendy M. Loya; Kurt S. Pregitzer; Michael G. Ryan; Carl Trettin

2005-01-01

Belowground carbon allocation (BCA) in forests regulates soil organic matter formation and influences biotic and abiotic properties of soil such as bulk density, cation exchange capacity, and water holding capacity. On a global scale, the total quantity of carbon allocated belowground by terrestrial plants is enormous, exceeding by an order of magnitude the quantity of...

Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

2014-05-01

To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

On the Water-Food Nexus: an Optimization Approach for Water and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortada, Sarah; Abou Najm, Majdi; Yassine, Ali; Alameddine, Ibrahim; El-Fadel, Mutasem

2016-04-01

Water and food security is facing increased challenges with population increase, climate and land use change, as well as resource depletion coupled with pollution and unsustainable practices. Coordinated and effective management of limited natural resources have become an imperative to meet these challenges by optimizing the usage of resources under various constraints. In this study, an optimization model is developed for optimal resource allocation towards sustainable water and food security under nutritional, socio-economic, agricultural, environmental, and natural resources constraints. The core objective of this model is to maximize the composite water-food security status by recommending an optimal water and agricultural strategy. The model balances between the healthy nutritional demand side and the constrained supply side while considering the supply chain in between. It equally ensures that the population achieves recommended nutritional guidelines and population food-preferences by quantifying an optimum agricultural and water policy through transforming optimum food demands into optimum cropping policy given the water and land footprints of each crop or agricultural product. Through this process, water and food security are optimized considering factors that include crop-food transformation (food processing), water footprints, crop yields, climate, blue and green water resources, irrigation efficiency, arable land resources, soil texture, and economic policies. The model performance regarding agricultural practices and sustainable food and water security was successfully tested and verified both at a hypothetical and pilot scale levels.

Constraining uncertainties in water supply reliability in a tropical data scarce basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Rodriguez, Erasmo; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

Assessing the water supply reliability in river basins is essential for adequate planning and development of irrigated agriculture and urban water systems. In many cases hydrological models are applied to determine the surface water availability in river basins. However, surface water availability and variability is often not appropriately quantified due to epistemic uncertainties, leading to water supply insecurity. The objective of this research is to determine the water supply reliability in order to support planning and development of irrigated agriculture in a tropical, data scarce environment. The approach proposed uses a simple hydrological model, but explicitly includes model parameter uncertainty. A transboundary river basin in the tropical region of Colombia and Venezuela with an approximately area of 2100 km² was selected as a case study. The Budyko hydrological framework was extended to consider climatological input variability and model parameter uncertainty, and through this the surface water reliability to satisfy the irrigation and urban demand was estimated. This provides a spatial estimate of the water supply reliability across the basin. For the middle basin the reliability was found to be less than 30% for most of the months when the water is extracted from an upstream source. Conversely, the monthly water supply reliability was high (r>98%) in the lower basin irrigation areas when water was withdrawn from a source located further downstream. Including model parameter uncertainty provides a complete estimate of the water supply reliability, but that estimate is influenced by the uncertainty in the model. Reducing the uncertainty in the model through improved data and perhaps improved model structure will improve the estimate of the water supply reliability allowing better planning of irrigated agriculture and dependable water allocation decisions.

Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

2017-04-01

To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx. 40 years of records. This paper investigates the capacity of the three hydrological models to project the impacts of climate change scenarios. It is proposed a general testing framework which combine the use of the existing information through an adapted form of DSST with the approach proposed by Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) adapted to assess statistical properties of flows useful in the context of water allocation. To assess the model we use robustness criteria based on a Log Nash-Sutcliffe, BIAS on cummulative volumes and relative changes based on Q50/Q90 estimated from the duration curve. The three conceptual rainfall-runoff models yielded different results per sub-catchments. A relation was found between robustness criteria and changes in mean rainfall and changes in mean potential evapotranspiration. Biases are greatly affected by changes in precipitation, especially when the climate scenarios involve changes in precipitation volume beyond the range used for calibration. Using the combine approach we were able to classify the modelling tools per sub-catchments and create an ensemble of best models to project the impacts of climate variability for the catchments of 10 main rivers in Flanders. Thus, managers could understand better the usability of the modelling tools and the credibility of its outputs for water allocation applications. References Refsgaard, J.C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T.A., Drews, M., Hamilton, D.P., Jeppesen, E., Kjellström, E., Olesen, J.E., Sonnenborg, T.O., Trolle, D., Willems, P., Christensen, J.H., 2014. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Clim. Change. Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P., 2012. Method for testing the accuracy of rainfall - runoff models in predicting peak flow changes due to rainfall changes , in a climate changing context. J. Hydrol. 415, 425-434.

Model-based metrics of human-automation function allocation in complex work environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, So Young

Function allocation is the design decision which assigns work functions to all agents in a team, both human and automated. Efforts to guide function allocation systematically has been studied in many fields such as engineering, human factors, team and organization design, management science, and cognitive systems engineering. Each field focuses on certain aspects of function allocation, but not all; thus, an independent discussion of each does not address all necessary issues with function allocation. Four distinctive perspectives emerged from a review of these fields: technology-centered, human-centered, team-oriented, and work-oriented. Each perspective focuses on different aspects of function allocation: capabilities and characteristics of agents (automation or human), team structure and processes, and work structure and the work environment. Together, these perspectives identify the following eight issues with function allocation: 1) Workload, 2) Incoherency in function allocations, 3) Mismatches between responsibility and authority, 4) Interruptive automation, 5) Automation boundary conditions, 6) Function allocation preventing human adaptation to context, 7) Function allocation destabilizing the humans' work environment, and 8) Mission Performance. Addressing these issues systematically requires formal models and simulations that include all necessary aspects of human-automation function allocation: the work environment, the dynamics inherent to the work, agents, and relationships among them. Also, addressing these issues requires not only a (static) model, but also a (dynamic) simulation that captures temporal aspects of work such as the timing of actions and their impact on the agent's work. Therefore, with properly modeled work as described by the work environment, the dynamics inherent to the work, agents, and relationships among them, a modeling framework developed by this thesis, which includes static work models and dynamic simulation, can capture the issues with function allocation. Then, based on the eight issues, eight types of metrics are established. The purpose of these metrics is to assess the extent to which each issue exists with a given function allocation. Specifically, the eight types of metrics assess workload, coherency of a function allocation, mismatches between responsibility and authority, interruptive automation, automation boundary conditions, human adaptation to context, stability of the human's work environment, and mission performance. Finally, to validate the modeling framework and the metrics, a case study was conducted modeling four different function allocations between a pilot and flight deck automation during the arrival and approach phases of flight. A range of pilot cognitive control modes and maximum human taskload limits were also included in the model. The metrics were assessed for these four function allocations and analyzed to validate capability of the metrics to identify important issues in given function allocations. In addition, the design insights provided by the metrics are highlighted. This thesis concludes with a discussion of mechanisms for further validating the modeling framework and function allocation metrics developed here, and highlights where these developments can be applied in research and in the design of function allocations in complex work environments such as aviation operations.

Assessing marginal water values in multipurpose multireservoir systems via stochastic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmant, A.; Pinte, D.; Goor, Q.

2008-12-01

The International Conference on Water and the Environment held in Dublin in 1992 emphasized the need to consider water as an economic good. Since water markets are usually absent or ineffective, the value of water cannot be directly derived from market activities but must rather be assessed through shadow prices. Economists have developed various valuation techniques to determine the economic value of water, especially to handle allocation issues involving environmental water uses. Most of the nonmarket valuation studies reported in the literature focus on long-run policy problems, such as permanent (re)allocations of water, and assume that the water availability is given. When dealing with short-run allocation problems, water managers are facing complex spatial and temporal trade-offs and must therefore be able to track site and time changes in water values across different hydrologic conditions, especially in arid and semiarid areas where the availability of water is a limiting and stochastic factor. This paper presents a stochastic programming approach for assessing the statistical distribution of marginal water values in multipurpose multireservoir systems where hydropower generation and irrigation crop production are the main economic activities depending on water. In the absence of a water market, the Lagrange multipliers correspond to shadow prices, and the marginal water values are the Lagrange multipliers associated with the mass balance equations of the reservoirs. The methodology is illustrated with a cascade of hydroelectric-irrigation reservoirs in the Euphrates river basin in Turkey and Syria.

Vegetation-hydrology dynamics in complex terrain of semiarid areas: 1. A mechanistic approach to modeling dynamic feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Bras, Rafael L.; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2008-03-01

Vegetation, particularly its dynamics, is the often-ignored linchpin of the land-surface hydrology. This work emphasizes the coupled nature of vegetation-water-energy dynamics by considering linkages at timescales that vary from hourly to interannual. A series of two papers is presented. A dynamic ecohydrological model [tRIBS + VEGGIE] is described in this paper. It reproduces essential water and energy processes over the complex topography of a river basin and links them to the basic plant life regulatory processes. The framework focuses on ecohydrology of semiarid environments exhibiting abundant input of solar energy but limiting soil water that correspondingly affects vegetation structure and organization. The mechanisms through which water limitation influences plant dynamics are related to carbon assimilation via the control of photosynthesis and stomatal behavior, carbon allocation, stress-induced foliage loss, as well as recruitment and phenology patterns. This first introductory paper demonstrates model performance using observations for a site located in a semiarid environment of central New Mexico.

Hydro-economic modeling of integrated solutions for the water-energy-land nexus in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, S.; Kahil, M.; Wada, Y.; Krey, V.; Byers, E.; Johnson, N. A.; Burek, P.; Satoh, Y.; Willaarts, B.; Langan, S.; Riahi, K.

2017-12-01

This study focused on the development of the Extended Continental-scale Hydro-economic Optimization model (ECHO) and its application to the analysis of long-term water, energy and land use pathways for Africa. The framework is important because it integrates multi-decadal decisions surrounding investments into new water infrastructure, electric power generation and irrigation technologies. The improved linkages in ECHO reveal synergies between water allocation strategies across sectors and the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from electricity supply. The African case study features a reduced-form transboundary river network and associated environmental flow constraints covering surface and groundwater withdrawals. Interactions between local water constraints and the continental-scale economy are captured in the model through the combination of regional electricity markets. Spatially-explicit analysis of land availability is used to restrict future reservoir expansion. The analysis demonstrates the massive investments required to ensure rapidly expanding water, energy and food demands in Africa aligned with human development objectives are met in a sustainable way. Modeled constraints on environmental flows in line with presumptive ecological guidelines trigger diffusion of energy-intensive water supply technologies in water-stressed regions, with implications for the cost and speed of the electricity sector decarbonization required to achieve climate targets.

Systems modeling to improve the hydro-ecological performance of diked wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alminagorta, Omar; Rosenberg, David E.; Kettenring, Karin M.

2016-09-01

Water scarcity and invasive vegetation threaten arid-region wetlands and wetland managers seek ways to enhance wetland ecosystem services with limited water, labor, and financial resources. While prior systems modeling efforts have focused on water management to improve flow-based ecosystem and habitat objectives, here we consider water allocation and invasive vegetation management that jointly target the concurrent hydrologic and vegetation habitat needs of priority wetland bird species. We formulate a composite weighted usable area for wetlands (WU) objective function that represents the wetland surface area that provides suitable water level and vegetation cover conditions for priority bird species. Maximizing the WU is subject to constraints such as water balance, hydraulic infrastructure capacity, invasive vegetation growth and control, and a limited financial budget to control vegetation. We apply the model at the Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge on the Great Salt Lake, Utah, compare model-recommended management actions to past Refuge water and vegetation control activities, and find that managers can almost double the area of suitable habitat by more dynamically managing water levels and managing invasive vegetation in August at the beginning of the window for control operations. Scenario and sensitivity analyses show the importance to jointly consider hydrology and vegetation system components rather than only the hydrological component.

How should we build a generic open-source water management simulator?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadem, M.; Meier, P.; Rheinheimer, D. E.; Padula, S.; Matrosov, E.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Harou, J. J.

2014-12-01

Increasing water needs for agriculture, industry and cities mean effective and flexible water resource system management tools will remain in high demand. Currently many regions or countries use simulators that have been adapted over time to their unique system properties and water management rules and realities. Most regions operate with a preferred short-list of water management and planning decision support systems. Is there scope for a simulator, shared within the water management community, that could be adapted to different contexts, integrate community contributions, and connect to generic data and model management software? What role could open-source play in such a project? How could a genericuser-interface and data/model management software sustainably be attached to this model or suite of models? Finally, how could such a system effectively leverage existing model formulations, modeling technologies and software? These questions are addressed by the initial work presented here. We introduce a generic water resource simulation formulation that enables and integrates both rule-based and optimization driven technologies. We suggest how it could be linked to other sub-models allowing for detailed agent-based simulation of water management behaviours. An early formulation is applied as an example to the Thames water resource system in the UK. The model uses centralised optimisation to calculate allocations but allows for rule-based operations as well in an effort to represent observed behaviours and rules with fidelity. The model is linked through import/export commands to a generic network model platform named Hydra. Benefits and limitations of the approach are discussed and planned work and potential use cases are outlined.

Predicting losing and gaining river reaches in lowland New Zealand based on a statistical methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jing; Zammit, Christian; Dudley, Bruce

2017-04-01

The phenomenon of losing and gaining in rivers normally takes place in lowland where often there are various, sometimes conflicting uses for water resources, e.g., agriculture, industry, recreation, and maintenance of ecosystem function. To better support water allocation decisions, it is crucial to understand the location and seasonal dynamics of these losses and gains. We present a statistical methodology to predict losing and gaining river reaches in New Zealand based on 1) information surveys with surface water and groundwater experts from regional government, 2) A collection of river/watershed characteristics, including climate, soil and hydrogeologic information, and 3) the random forests technique. The surveys on losing and gaining reaches were conducted face-to-face at 16 New Zealand regional government authorities, and climate, soil, river geometry, and hydrogeologic data from various sources were collected and compiled to represent river/watershed characteristics. The random forests technique was used to build up the statistical relationship between river reach status (gain and loss) and river/watershed characteristics, and then to predict for river reaches at Strahler order one without prior losing and gaining information. Results show that the model has a classification error of around 10% for "gain" and "loss". The results will assist further research, and water allocation decisions in lowland New Zealand.

Jordan Water Project: an interdisciplinary evaluation of freshwater vulnerability and security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorelick, S.; Yoon, J.; Rajsekhar, D.; Muller, M. F.; Zhang, H.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Sigel, K.; Thilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Lachaut, T.; Harou, J. J.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Haddad, Y.; Shamekh, M.

2016-12-01

The Jordan Water Project, part of the Belmont Forum projects, is an interdisciplinary, international research effort focused on evaluation of freshwater security in Jordan, one of the most water-vulnerable countries in the world. The team covers hydrology, water resources systems analysis, economics, policy evaluation, geography, risk and remote sensing analyses, and model platform development. The entire project team communally engaged in construction of an integrated hydroeconomic model for water supply policy evaluation. To represent water demand and allocation behavior at multiple levels of decision making,the model integrates biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered hydrologic phenomena with human behavioral modules. Hydrologic modules include spatially-distributed groundwater and surface-water models for the major aquifers and watersheds throughout Jordan. For the human modules, we adopt a multi-agent modeling approach to represent decision-making processes. The integrated model was developed in Pynsim, a new open-source, object-oriented platform in Python for network-based water resource systems. We continue to explore the impacts of future scenarios and interventions.This project had tremendous encouragement and data support from Jordan's Ministry of Water and Irrigation. Modeling technology is being transferred through a companion NSF/USAID PEER project awarded toJordan University of Science and Technology. Individual teams have also conducted a range of studies aimed at evaluating Jordanian and transboundary surface water and groundwater systems. Surveys, interviews, and econometric analyses enabled us to better understandthe behavior of urban households, farmers, private water resellers, water use pattern of the commercial sector and irrigation water user associations. We analyzed nationwide spatial and temporal statistical trends in rainfall, developed urban and national comparative metrics to quantify water supply vulnerability, improved remote sensing methods to estimate crop-water use, and evaluated the impacts of climate change on future drought severity.

Fixed allocation patterns, rather than plasticity, benefit recruitment and recovery from drought in seedlings of a desert shrub

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yao; Li, Yan; Xie, Jiang-Bo

2016-01-01

The response of plants to drought is controlled by the interaction between physiological regulation and morphological adjustment. Although recent studies have highlighted the long-term morphological acclimatization of plants to drought, there is still debate on how plant biomass allocation patterns respond to drought. In this study, we performed a greenhouse experiment with first-year seedlings of a desert shrub in control, drought and re-water treatments, to examine their physiological and morphological traits during drought and subsequent recovery. We found that (i) biomass was preferentially allocated to roots along a fixed allometric trajectory throughout the first year of development, irrespective of the variation in water availability; and (ii) this fixed biomass allocation pattern benefited the post-drought recovery. These results suggest that, in a stressful environment, natural selection has favoured a fixed biomass allocation pattern rather than plastic responses to environmental variation. The fixed ‘preferential allocation to root’ biomass suggests that roots may play a critical role in determining the fate of this desert shrub during prolonged drought. As the major organ for resource acquisition and storage, how the root system functions during drought requires further investigation. PMID:27073036

Reinforcement Learning Multi-Agent Modeling of Decision-Making Agents for the Study of Transboundary Surface Water Conflicts with Application to the Syr Darya River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegels, N.; Siegfried, T.; Pereira Cardenal, S. J.; Jensen, R. A.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

2008-12-01

In most economics--driven approaches to optimizing water use at the river basin scale, the system is modelled deterministically with the goal of maximizing overall benefits. However, actual operation and allocation decisions must be made under hydrologic and economic uncertainty. In addition, river basins often cross political boundaries, and different states may not be motivated to cooperate so as to maximize basin- scale benefits. Even within states, competing agents such as irrigation districts, municipal water agencies, and large industrial users may not have incentives to cooperate to realize efficiency gains identified in basin- level studies. More traditional simulation--optimization approaches assume pre-commitment by individual agents and stakeholders and unconditional compliance on each side. While this can help determine attainable gains and tradeoffs from efficient management, such hardwired policies do not account for dynamic feedback between agents themselves or between agents and their environments (e.g. due to climate change etc.). In reality however, we are dealing with an out-of-equilibrium multi-agent system, where there is neither global knowledge nor global control, but rather continuous strategic interaction between decision making agents. Based on the theory of stochastic games, we present a computational framework that allows for studying the dynamic feedback between decision--making agents themselves and an inherently uncertain environment in a spatially and temporally distributed manner. Agents with decision-making control over water allocation such as countries, irrigation districts, and municipalities are represented by reinforcement learning agents and coupled to a detailed hydrologic--economic model. This approach emphasizes learning by agents from their continuous interaction with other agents and the environment. It provides a convenient framework for the solution of the problem of dynamic decision-making in a mixed cooperative / non-cooperative environment with which different institutional setups and incentive systems can be studied so to identify reasonable ways to reach desirable, Pareto--optimal allocation outcomes. Preliminary results from an application to the Syr Darya river basin in Central Asia will be presented and discussed. The Syr Darya River is a classic example of a transboundary river basin in which basin-wide efficiency gains identified in optimization studies have not been sufficient to induce cooperative management of the river by the riparian states.

Volume sharing of reservoir water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, Norman J.

1988-05-01

Previous models optimize short-, intermediate-, and long-run irrigation decision making in a simplified river valley system characterized by highly variable water supplies and demands for a single decision maker controlling both reservoir releases and farm water use. A major problem in relaxing the assumption of one decision maker is communicating the stochastic nature of supplies and demands between reservoir and farm managers. In this paper, an optimizing model is used to develop release rules for reservoir management when all users share equally in releases, and computer simulation is used to generate an historical time sequence of announced releases. These announced releases become a state variable in a farm management model which optimizes farm area-to-irrigate decisions through time. Such modeling envisages the use of growing area climatic data by the reservoir authority to gauge water demand and the transfer of water supply data from reservoir to farm managers via computer data files. Alternative model forms, including allocating water on a priority basis, are discussed briefly. Results show lower mean aggregate farm income and lower variance of aggregate farm income than in the single decision-maker case. This short-run economic efficiency loss coupled with likely long-run economic efficiency losses due to the attenuated nature of property rights indicates the need for quite different ways of integrating reservoir and farm management.

Quantifying the Contribution of Regional Aquifers to Stream Flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbruch, M.; Dickinson, J.

2017-12-01

The growing population of the arid and semiarid southwestern U.S. relies on over-allocated surface water resources and poorly quantified groundwater resources. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, recent studies have found that about 50 percent of the surface water at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages is derived from groundwater contributions as base flow. Prior USGS and other studies for the Colorado Plateau region have mainly examined groundwater and surface water as separate systems, and there has yet to be regional synthesis of groundwater availability in aquifers that contribute to surface water. A more physically based representation of groundwater flow could improve simulations of surface-water capture by groundwater pumping, and changes of groundwater discharge to surface water caused by possible shifts in the distribution, magnitude, and timing of recharge in the future. We seek to improve conceptual and numerical models of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Colorado Plateau region as part of a USGS regional groundwater availability assessment. Numerical modeling is used to simulate and quantify the base flow from groundwater to the Colorado River and its major tributaries. Groundwater/surface-water interactions will be simulated using the USGS code GSFLOW, which couples the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to the groundwater flow model MODFLOW. Initial results suggest that interactions between groundwater and surface water are important for projecting long-term changes in surface water budgets.

Hydrogeologic considerations for an interstate ground-water compact on the Madison aquifer, northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.

1978-01-01

The development of an interstate ground-water compact for the Madison aquifer in the Northern Great Plains may provide a framework to allocate equitably this large ground-water resource while avoiding possible future interstate legal conflicts. However, some technical problems will have to be resolved first. A compact designed to regulate or to allocate the available ground water will have to be written in very precise, legally acceptable definitions. The required definitions may infer a degree of measurement accuracy that cannot be technically or economically provided. Therefore, a trade off may be required between preserving natural conditions and allowing beneficial use of the ground-water resource.

Transboundary water conflict resolution mechanisms: toward convergence between theory and practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tayia, Ahmed; Madani, Kaveh

2016-04-01

Transboundary waters are expected be one of the biggest challenges for human development over the next decades. The growing global water scarcity and interdependence among water-sharing countries have created tensions over shared water resources around the world. Therefore, interest in studying transboundary water conflict resolution has grown over the last decades. This research focuses on transboundary water resources conflict resolution mechanisms. A more a specific concern is to explore the mechanisms of allocating of transboundary water resources among riparian states. The literature of transboundary water resources conflict has brought various approaches for allocating of transboundary water resources among riparian countries. Some of these approaches have focused on the negotiation process, such the Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR). Other approaches have analysed the economic dimension of transboundary water disputes, in an attempt to identify optimal economic criteria for water allocation, such as the "social planner" approach and the "water market" approach. A more comprehensive approach has been provided by game theory that has brought together the economic and political dimensions of the water dispute management. The study attempts to provide a map for the relation between theory and practice in the field of transboundary water conflict resolution. Therefore, it explores the approaches that have been used to analyse real transboundary water disputes management. Moreover, it examines the approaches that have been suggested in literature as mechanisms of transboundary water conflict resolution. Finally, it identifies the techniques that have been used in practice to solve transboundary water conflicts and attempts to evaluate the sustainability of the resulting regulatory institutional arrangements.

Reproductive Allocation of Biomass and Nitrogen in Annual and Perennial Lesquerella Crops

PubMed Central

PLOSCHUK, E. L.; SLAFER, G. A.; RAVETTA, D. A.

2005-01-01

• Background and Aims The use of perennial crops could contribute to increase agricultural sustainability. However, almost all of the major grain crops are herbaceous annuals and opportunities to replace them with more long-lived perennials have been poorly explored. This follows the presumption that the perennial life cycle is associated with a lower potential yield, due to a reduced allocation of biomass to grains. The hypothesis was tested that allocation to perpetuation organs in the perennial L. mendocina would not be directly related to a lower allocation to seeds. • Methods Two field experiments were carried on with the annual Lesquerella fendleri and the iteroparous perennial L. mendocina, two promising oil-seed crops for low-productivity environments, subjected to different water and nitrogen availability. • Key Results Seed biomass allocation was similar for both species, and unresponsive to water and nitrogen availability. Greater root and vegetative shoot allocation in the perennial was counterbalanced by a lower allocation to other reproductive structures compared with the annual Lesquerella. Allometric relationships revealed that allocation differences between the annual and the perennial increased linearly with plant size. The general allocation patterns for nitrogen did not differ from those of biomass. However, nitrogen concentrations were higher in the vegetative shoot and root of L. mendocina than of L. fendleri but remained stable in seeds of both species. • Conclusions It is concluded that vegetative organs are more hierarchically important sinks in L. mendocina than in the annual L. fendleri, but without disadvantages in seed hierarchy. PMID:15863469

Evaluating water conservation and reuse policies using a dynamic water balance model.

PubMed

Qaiser, Kamal; Ahmad, Sajjad; Johnson, Walter; Batista, Jacimaria R

2013-02-01

A dynamic water balance model is created to examine the effects of different water conservation policies and recycled water use on water demand and supply in a region faced with water shortages and significant population growth, the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). The model, developed using system dynamics approach, includes an unusual component of the water system, return flow credits, where credits are accrued for returning treated wastewater to the water supply source. In LVV, Lake Mead serves as, both the drinking water source and the receiving body for treated wastewater. LVV has a consumptive use allocation from Lake Mead but return flow credits allow the water agency to pull out additional water equal to the amount returned as treated wastewater. This backdrop results in a scenario in which conservation may cause a decline in the available water supply. Current water use in LVV is 945 lpcd (250 gpcd), which the water agency aims to reduce to 752 lpcd (199 gpcd) by 2035, mainly through water conservation. Different conservation policies focused on indoor and outdoor water use, along with different population growth scenarios, are modeled for their effects on the water demand and supply. Major contribution of this study is in highlighting the importance of outdoor water conservation and the effectiveness of reducing population growth rate in addressing the future water shortages. The water agency target to decrease consumption, if met completely through outdoor conservation, coupled with lower population growth rate, can potentially satisfy the Valley's water demands through 2035.

Evaluating the Impacts of an Agricultural Water Market in the Guadalupe River Basin, Texas: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.

2014-12-01

Agriculture comprises about 80 percent of the total water consumption in the US. Under conditions of water shortage and fully committed water rights, market-based water allocations could be promising instruments for agricultural water redistribution from marginally profitable areas to more profitable ones. Previous studies on water market have mainly focused on theoretical or statistical analysis. However, how water users' heterogeneous physical attributes and decision rules about water use and water right trading will affect water market efficiency has been less addressed. In this study, we developed an agent-based model to evaluate the benefits of an agricultural water market in the Guadalupe River Basin during drought events. Agricultural agents with different attributes (i.e., soil type for crops, annual water diversion permit and precipitation) are defined to simulate the dynamic feedback between water availability, irrigation demand and water trading activity. Diversified crop irrigation rules and water bidding rules are tested in terms of crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. The model was coupled with a real-time hydrologic model and run under different water scarcity scenarios. Preliminary results indicate that an agricultural water market is capable of increasing crop yield, agricultural profit, and water-use efficiency. This capability is more significant under moderate drought scenarios than in mild and severe drought scenarios. The water market mechanism also increases agricultural resilience to climate uncertainty by reducing crop yield variance in drought events. The challenges of implementing an agricultural water market under climate uncertainty are also discussed.

Toward a mechanistic modeling of nitrogen limitation on vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D; Wilson, Cathy J; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G

2012-01-01

Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO(2) concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO(2) concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of V(c,max) (maximum carboxylation rate) and J(max) (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO(2) concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks to climate in Earth system models.

Toward a Mechanistic Modeling of Nitrogen Limitation on Vegetation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Rosie; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Wilson, Cathy J.; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2012-01-01

Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO2 concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of Vc,max (maximum carboxylation rate) and Jmax (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO2 concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks to climate in Earth system models. PMID:22649564

Opportunity for peri-urban Perth groundwater trade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lei; Connor, Jeff; Doble, Rebecca; Ali, Riasat; McFarlane, Don

2013-07-01

Groundwater trade is widely advocated for reallocating scarce groundwater resources between competing users, and managing over-allocated and declining aquifers. However, groundwater markets are still in their infancy, and the potential benefits and opportunities need investigation, particularly where there is a need to reduce the extraction from declining aquifers. This article evaluates economic impacts of reducing groundwater extraction for irrigation use in peri-urban Perth, Australia, where irrigation, a lake-based ecosystem, and public water supply are highly dependent on a declining groundwater resource. We present an assessment of market-based water trading approaches to reduce groundwater extraction with an economic model representing diversity in returns to groundwater use across a population of irrigators. The results indicate that potential economic costs of a proportional reduction in available groundwater for irrigation are 18-21% less if groundwater trade is possible. We also evaluate a water buyback from irrigation to provide public water supply as an alternative to new infrastructure. We find that buying back up to around 50% of current irrigation allocations could create new public water supply only at the cost of 0.32-0.39 million per GL, which is less than one fifth of the costs of new desalinisation or recycled water supply options (2-3 million per GL). We conclude that, with rapid development of computer and internet based trading platforms that allows fast, efficient and low cost multiple party trading, it is increasingly feasible to realise the economic potentials of market-based trade approaches for managing overexploited aquifers.

Developing an Ecosystem Services Online Decision Support Tool to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Santa Cruz Watershed: Where We Live, Work, and Play

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura; Tallent-Halsell, Nita; Labiosa, William; Weber, Matt; McCoy, Amy; Hirschboeck, Katie; Callegary, James; van Riper, Charles; Gray, Floyd

2010-01-01

Using respective strengths of the biological, physical, and social sciences, we are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), to help promote the use of information relevant to water allocation and land management in a binational watershed along the U.S.-Mexico border. The SCWEPM will include an ES valuation system within a suite of linked regional driver-response models and will use a multicriteria scenario-evaluation framework that builds on GIS analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to climate patterns, regional water budgets, and regional LULC change in the SCW.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

A Study on Cost Allocation in Nuclear Power Coupled with Desalination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, ManKi; Kim, SeungSu; Moon, KeeHwan

As for a single-purpose desalination plant, there is no particular difficulty in computing the unit cost of the water, which is obtained by dividing the annual total costs by the output of fresh water. When it comes to a dual-purpose plant, cost allocation is needed between the two products. No cost allocation is needed in some cases where two alternatives producing the same water and electricity output are to be compared. In these cases, the consideration of the total cost is then sufficient. This study assumes MED (Multi-Effect Distillation) technology is adopted when nuclear power is coupled with desalination. Themore » total production cost of the two commodities in dual-purpose plant can easily be obtained by using costing methods, if the necessary raw data are available. However, it is not easy to calculate a separate cost for each product, because high-pressure steam plant costs cannot be allocated to one or the other without adopting arbitrary methods. Investigation on power credit method is carried out focusing on the cost allocation of combined benefits due to dual production, electricity and water. The illustrative calculation is taken from Preliminary Economic Feasibility Study of Nuclear Desalination in Madura Island, Indonesia. The study is being performed by BATAN (National Nuclear Energy Agency), KAERI (Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute) and under support of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) started in the year 2002 in order to perform a preliminary economic feasibility in providing the Madurese with sufficient power and potable water for the public and to support industrialization and tourism in Madura Region. The SMART reactor coupled with MED is considered to be an option to produce electricity and potable water. This study indicates that the correct recognition of combined benefits attributable to dual production is important in carrying out economics of desalination coupled with nuclear power. (authors)« less

How the USGS collects national water-use data, and why it needs to be improved to aid hydrologic research (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worland, S. C.

2017-12-01

The volume of water used by humans is an often-overlooked component of water budgets and represents the greatest amount of uncertainty in many hydrologic models. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has compiled national water-use data at the state level since 1950 and at the county level since 1985. The data are published every five years and are available for several categorical end-uses; the major ones being thermoelectric power, irrigation, public supply, and self-supplied industrial. Although the USGS is mandated by Congress to generate these water-use reports, the effort is largely underfunded. For most years between 1979 to 2010, the annual funding allotted to the USGS National Water-Use Information Program was less than 400,000 which has not been sufficient to support the direct collection of water-use data by the USGS. The result has been historical water-use data that are temporally sparse, spatially granular, and lack the high standards of quality control typical of USGS data products. For example, in 2010 there were over 55,000 public-water suppliers in the United States that represented water withdrawals from 130,000 groundwater wells and 8,000 surface-water intakes. The 2010 water-use compilation provided only a single-year snapshot of public-supply withdrawals and reduces the 55,000 data points to 3,000 by aggregating the data into the hydrologically irrelevant spatial unit of county boundaries. Furthermore, important information such as interbasin-water transfers, aquifer source, and water price are entirely absent from the dataset. Since 2011, however, the allocation has increased to 1.6 million/year and in 2015 there was an additional $1.5 million/year allocated to the Water-Use Data and Research Program which grants federal money to state agencies for water-use data collection efforts. This increase in funding has primarily been used to improve the water-use estimates of the thermoelectric power, public supply, and irrigation sectors through improved data collection, more efficient databases, and the development of deterministic and probabilistic models. Water-use data and research needs significantly more attention at the national level if we are to meet the water availability needs of society in the coming decades.

METHODS OF ANALYSIS FOR WASTE LOAD ALLOCATION

EPA Science Inventory

This research has addressed several unresolved questions concerning the allocation of allowable waste loads among multiple wastewater dischargers within a water quality limited stream segment. First, the traditional assumptions about critical design conditions for waste load allo...

A prototype for understanding the effects of TMDL standards: Tying property values to sediment loads in the Lake Tahoe Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tracy, J.C.; Bernknopf, R.; Forney, W.; Hill, K.

2004-01-01

The Federal Clean Water Act (Section 303(d)) mandates that states develop Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) plans for water bodies that are on the Section 303(d) list. To be placed on the 303(d) list, a water body must be found to have water quality conditions that limit its ability to meet its designated beneficial uses. The TMDL for a water body is defined in 40 CFR 130 as the sum of waste load allocations from identified points sources and non-point sources within the water body's watershed. The TMDL plan for a listed water body should identify the current waste loads to the water body, the waste load capacity of the water body and then allocate the waste load capacity to the known point and non-point sources of pollution within the water body's watershed. Copyright 2004 ASCE.

Optimized oral cholera vaccine distribution strategies to minimize disease incidence: A mixed integer programming model and analysis of a Bangladesh scenario.

PubMed

Smalley, Hannah K; Keskinocak, Pinar; Swann, Julie; Hinman, Alan

2015-11-17

In addition to improved sanitation, hygiene, and better access to safe water, oral cholera vaccines can help to control the spread of cholera in the short term. However, there is currently no systematic method for determining the best allocation of oral cholera vaccines to minimize disease incidence in a population where the disease is endemic and resources are limited. We present a mathematical model for optimally allocating vaccines in a region under varying levels of demographic and incidence data availability. The model addresses the questions of where, when, and how many doses of vaccines to send. Considering vaccine efficacies (which may vary based on age and the number of years since vaccination), we analyze distribution strategies which allocate vaccines over multiple years. Results indicate that, given appropriate surveillance data, targeting age groups and regions with the highest disease incidence should be the first priority, followed by other groups primarily in order of disease incidence, as this approach is the most life-saving and cost-effective. A lack of detailed incidence data results in distribution strategies which are not cost-effective and can lead to thousands more deaths from the disease. The mathematical model allows for what-if analysis for various vaccine distribution strategies by providing the ability to easily vary parameters such as numbers and sizes of regions and age groups, risk levels, vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, production capacity and budget. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The allocation of ecosystem net primary productivity in tropical forests

PubMed Central

Malhi, Yadvinder; Doughty, Christopher; Galbraith, David

2011-01-01

The allocation of the net primary productivity (NPP) of an ecosystem between canopy, woody tissue and fine roots is an important descriptor of the functioning of that ecosystem, and an important feature to correctly represent in terrestrial ecosystem models. Here, we collate and analyse a global dataset of NPP allocation in tropical forests, and compare this with the representation of NPP allocation in 13 terrestrial ecosystem models. On average, the data suggest an equal partitioning of allocation between all three main components (mean 34 ± 6% canopy, 39 ± 10% wood, 27 ± 11% fine roots), but there is substantial site-to-site variation in allocation to woody tissue versus allocation to fine roots. Allocation to canopy (leaves, flowers and fruit) shows much less variance. The mean allocation of the ecosystem models is close to the mean of the data, but the spread is much greater, with several models reporting allocation partitioning outside of the spread of the data. Where all main components of NPP cannot be measured, litterfall is a good predictor of overall NPP (r2 = 0.83 for linear fit forced through origin), stem growth is a moderate predictor and fine root production a poor predictor. Across sites the major component of variation of allocation is a shifting allocation between wood and fine roots, with allocation to the canopy being a relatively invariant component of total NPP. This suggests the dominant allocation trade-off is a ‘fine root versus wood’ trade-off, as opposed to the expected ‘root–shoot’ trade-off; such a trade-off has recently been posited on theoretical grounds for old-growth forest stands. We conclude by discussing the systematic biases in estimates of allocation introduced by missing NPP components, including herbivory, large leaf litter and root exudates production. These biases have a moderate effect on overall carbon allocation estimates, but are smaller than the observed range in allocation values across sites. PMID:22006964

Enabling Real-time Water Decision Support Services Using Model as a Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, T.; Minsker, B. S.; Lee, J. S.; Salas, F. R.; Maidment, D. R.; David, C. H.

2014-12-01

Through application of computational methods and an integrated information system, data and river modeling services can help researchers and decision makers more rapidly understand river conditions under alternative scenarios. To enable this capability, workflows (i.e., analysis and model steps) are created and published as Web services delivered through an internet browser, including model inputs, a published workflow service, and visualized outputs. The RAPID model, which is a river routing model developed at University of Texas Austin for parallel computation of river discharge, has been implemented as a workflow and published as a Web application. This allows non-technical users to remotely execute the model and visualize results as a service through a simple Web interface. The model service and Web application has been prototyped in the San Antonio and Guadalupe River Basin in Texas, with input from university and agency partners. In the future, optimization model workflows will be developed to link with the RAPID model workflow to provide real-time water allocation decision support services.

Drought planning and water allocation: an assessment of local capacity in Minnesota.

PubMed

Pirie, Rebecca L; de Loë, Rob C; Kreutzwiser, Reid

2004-10-01

Water allocation systems are challenged by hydrologic droughts, which reduce available water supplies and can adversely affect human and environmental systems. To address this problem, drought management mechanisms have been instituted in jurisdictions around the world. Historically, these mechanisms have involved a crisis management or reactive approach. An important trend during the past decade in places such as the United States has been a shift to a more proactive approach, emphasizing drought preparedness and local involvement. Unfortunately, local capacity for drought planning is highly variable, with some local governments and organizations proving to be more capable than others of taking on new responsibilities. This paper reports on a study of drought planning and water allocation in the State of Minnesota. Factors facilitating and constraining local capacity for drought planning were identified using in-depth key informant interviews with state officials and members of two small Minnesota cities, combined with an analysis of pertinent documentation. A key factor contributing to the effectiveness of Minnesota's system is a water allocation system with explicit priorities during shortages, and provisions for restrictions. At the same time, the requirement that water suppliers create Public Water Supply Emergency Conservation Plans (PWSECP) clarifies the roles and responsibilities of key local actors. Unfortunately, the research revealed that mandated PWSECP are not always implemented, and that awareness of drought and drought planning measures in general may be poor at the local level. From the perspective of the two cities evaluated, factors that contributed to local capacity included sound financial and human resources, and (in some cases) effective vertical and horizontal linkages. This analysis of experiences in Minnesota highlights problems that can occur when senior governments establish policy frameworks that increase responsibilities at the local level without also addressing local capacity.

EPA-SUPPORTED (ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY-SUPPORTED) WASTELOAD ALLOCATION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Modeling is increasingly becoming part of the Wasteload Allocation Process. The U.S. EPA provides guidance, technical training and computer software in support of this program. This paper reviews the support available to modelers through the Wasteload Allocation Section of EPA's ...

Modeling hospitals' adaptive capacity during a loss of infrastructure services.

PubMed

Vugrin, Eric D; Verzi, Stephen J; Finley, Patrick D; Turnquist, Mark A; Griffin, Anne R; Ricci, Karen A; Wyte-Lake, Tamar

2015-01-01

Resilience in hospitals - their ability to withstand, adapt to, and rapidly recover from disruptive events - is vital to their role as part of national critical infrastructure. This paper presents a model to provide planning guidance to decision makers about how to make hospitals more resilient against possible disruption scenarios. This model represents a hospital's adaptive capacities that are leveraged to care for patients during loss of infrastructure services (power, water, etc.). The model is an optimization that reallocates and substitutes resources to keep patients in a high care state or allocates resources to allow evacuation if necessary. An illustrative example demonstrates how the model might be used in practice.

An Agent-based Modeling of Water-Food Nexus towards Sustainable Management of Urban Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, N.; Kanta, L.

2017-12-01

Growing population, urbanization, and climate change have put tremendous stress on water systems in many regions. A shortage in water system not only affects water users of a municipality but also that of food system. About 70% of global water is withdrawn for agriculture; livestock and dairy productions are also dependent on water availability. Although researchers and policy makers have identified and emphasized the water-food (WF) nexus in recent decade, most existing WF models offer strategies to reduce trade-offs and to generate benefits without considering feedback loops and adaptations between those systems. Feedback loops between water and food system can help understand long-term behavioral trends between water users of the integrated WF system which, in turn, can help manage water resources sustainably. An Agent-based modeling approach is applied here to develop a conceptual framework of WF systems. All water users in this system are modeled as agents, who are capable of making decisions and can adapt new behavior based on inputs from other agents in a shared environment through a set of logical and mathematical rules. Residential and commercial/industrial consumers are represented as municipal agents; crop, livestock, and dairy farmers are represented as food agents; and water management officials are represented as policy agent. During the period of water shortage, policy agent will propose/impose various water conservation measures, such as adapting water-efficient technologies, banning outdoor irrigation, implementing supplemental irrigation, using recycled water for livestock/dairy production, among others. Municipal and food agents may adapt conservation strategies and will update their demand accordingly. Emergent properties of the WF nexus will arise through dynamic interactions between various actors of water and food system. This model will be implemented to a case study for resource allocation and future policy development.

Development of a Reservoir System Operation Model for Water Sustainability in the Yaqui River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mounir, A.; Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Kauneckis, D.

2017-12-01

The arid state of Sonora, Mexico underwent the Sonora SI project to provide additional water supply to the capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the project involves an interbasin transfer from the Yaqui River Basin (YRB) to the Sonora River Basin via the Independencia aqueduct. This project has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors in the YRB. To improve the management of the Yaqui reservoir system, we developed a daily watershed model. This model allowed us to predict the amount of water available in different regions of the basin. We integrated this simulation to an optimization model which calculates the best water allocation according to water rights established in Mexico's National Water Law. We compared different precipitation forcing scenarios: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies during the historical period of 1980-2013, (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution, and (3) we will be studying a future forecast scenario. The simulation results were compared to historical observations at the three reservoirs existing in the YRB to generate confidence in the simulation tools. Our results are presented in the form of flow duration, reliability and exceedance frequency curves that are commonly used in the water management agencies. Through this effort, we anticipate building confidence among regional stakeholders in utilizing hydrological models in the development of reservoir operation policies.

Adaptation strategies for water supply management in a drought prone Mediterranean river basin: Application of outranking method.

PubMed

Kumar, Vikas; Del Vasto-Terrientes, Luis; Valls, Aida; Schuhmacher, Marta

2016-01-01

The regional water allocation planning is one of those complex decision problems where holistic approach to water supply management considering different criteria would be valuable. However, multi-criteria decision making with diverse indicators measured on different scales and uncertainty levels is difficult to solve. Objective of this paper is to develop scenarios for the future imbalances in water supply and demand for a water stressed Mediterranean area of Northern Spain (Tarragona) and to test the applicability and suitability of an outranking method ELECTRE-III-H for evaluating sectoral water allocation policies. This study is focused on the use of alternative water supply scenarios to fulfil the demand of water from three major sectors: domestic, industrial and agricultural. A detail scenario planning for regional water demand and supply has been discussed. For each future scenario of climate change, the goal is to obtain a ranking of a set of possible actions with regards to different types of indicators (costs, water stress and environmental impact). The analytical method used is based on outranking models for decision aid with hierarchical structures of criteria and ranking alternatives using partial preorders based on pairwise preference relations. We compare several adaptation measures including alternative water sources (reclaimed water and desalination); inter basin water transfer and sectoral demand management coming from industry, agriculture and domestic sectors and tested the sustainability of management actions for different climate change scenarios. Results have shown use of alternative water resources as the most reliable alternative with medium reclaimed water reuse in industry and agriculture and low to medium use of desalination water in domestic and industrial sectors as the best alternative. The proposed method has several advantages such as the management of heterogeneous scales of measurement without requiring any artificial transformation and the management of uncertainty by means of comparisons at a qualitative level in terms of the decision maker preferences. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

2015-04-01

The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes but also evapotranspiration process. However changes in total precipitation are highly uncertain. The six tested rainfall-runoff models project reduced flows, especially in the spring and summer seasons. Depending on the socio-economic scenarios and the area, the downstream total water needs could decrease or remain stable. Considering the present day constraints, these changes would lead to a decrease in energy production (mainly due to reduced annual inflows) and to less flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand. Results of the R²D² 2050 project suggest also that the downscaling methods still fail to reproduce some crucial aspects of the climate at regional scale. Unexpected biases are propagated along the chain of models. The key issue to simulate accurately reservoir operations under present and future climate conditions is the filling curves that depict the balance between water supply and demand. Probabilistic filling curves were calibrated here to meet the constraint on water level in summer objective nine years over ten. A large proportion of regional climates generated over the baseline period lead to unrealistic curves, pointing out higher levels of requirement in models output to assess global change impacts on water management systems like on the Durance River basin.

A Protocol for Generating and Exchanging (Genome-Scale) Metabolic Resource Allocation Models.

PubMed

Reimers, Alexandra-M; Lindhorst, Henning; Waldherr, Steffen

2017-09-06

In this article, we present a protocol for generating a complete (genome-scale) metabolic resource allocation model, as well as a proposal for how to represent such models in the systems biology markup language (SBML). Such models are used to investigate enzyme levels and achievable growth rates in large-scale metabolic networks. Although the idea of metabolic resource allocation studies has been present in the field of systems biology for some years, no guidelines for generating such a model have been published up to now. This paper presents step-by-step instructions for building a (dynamic) resource allocation model, starting with prerequisites such as a genome-scale metabolic reconstruction, through building protein and noncatalytic biomass synthesis reactions and assigning turnover rates for each reaction. In addition, we explain how one can use SBML level 3 in combination with the flux balance constraints and our resource allocation modeling annotation to represent such models.

Community-aware task allocation for social networked multiagent systems.

PubMed

Wang, Wanyuan; Jiang, Yichuan

2014-09-01

In this paper, we propose a novel community-aware task allocation model for social networked multiagent systems (SN-MASs), where the agent' cooperation domain is constrained in community and each agent can negotiate only with its intracommunity member agents. Under such community-aware scenarios, we prove that it remains NP-hard to maximize system overall profit. To solve this problem effectively, we present a heuristic algorithm that is composed of three phases: 1) task selection: select the desirable task to be allocated preferentially; 2) allocation to community: allocate the selected task to communities based on a significant task-first heuristics; and 3) allocation to agent: negotiate resources for the selected task based on a nonoverlap agent-first and breadth-first resource negotiation mechanism. Through the theoretical analyses and experiments, the advantages of our presented heuristic algorithm and community-aware task allocation model are validated. 1) Our presented heuristic algorithm performs very closely to the benchmark exponential brute-force optimal algorithm and the network flow-based greedy algorithm in terms of system overall profit in small-scale applications. Moreover, in the large-scale applications, the presented heuristic algorithm achieves approximately the same overall system profit, but significantly reduces the computational load compared with the greedy algorithm. 2) Our presented community-aware task allocation model reduces the system communication cost compared with the previous global-aware task allocation model and improves the system overall profit greatly compared with the previous local neighbor-aware task allocation model.

Research on air and missile defense task allocation based on extended contract net protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yunzhi; Wang, Gang

2017-10-01

Based on the background of air and missile defense distributed element corporative engagement, the interception task allocation problem of multiple weapon units with multiple targets under network condition is analyzed. Firstly, a mathematical model of task allocation is established by combat task decomposition. Secondly, the initialization assignment based on auction contract and the adjustment allocation scheme based on swap contract were introduced to the task allocation. Finally, through the simulation calculation of typical situation, the model can be used to solve the task allocation problem in complex combat environment.

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis ratesmore » are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.« less

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

DOE PAGES

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2016-05-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis ratesmore » are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.« less

Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However, current Earth System Models (ESMs) do not mechanistically represent functional nitrogen allocation for photosynthesis or the linkage between nitrogen uptake and root traits. The current version of CLM (4.5) links nitrogen availability and plant productivity via (1) an instantaneous downregulation of potential photosynthesis rates based on soil mineral nitrogen availability, and (2) apportionment of soil nitrogen between plants and competing nitrogen consumers assumed to be proportional to their relative N demands. However, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate; instead photosynthesis rates are governed by nitrogen that has been allocated to the physiological processes underpinning photosynthesis. Furthermore, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition has also been largely ignored in ESMs. We therefore present a new plant nitrogen model for CLM4.5 with (1) improved representations of linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity based on observed relationships in a global plant trait database and (2) plant nitrogen uptake based on root-scale Michaelis-Menten uptake kinetics. Our model improvements led to a global bias reduction in GPP, LAI, and biomass of 70%, 11%, and 49%, respectively. Furthermore, water use efficiency predictions were improved conceptually, qualitatively, and in magnitude. The new model's GPP responses to nitrogen deposition, CO2 fertilization, and climate also differed from the baseline model. The mechanistic representation of leaf-level nitrogen allocation and a theoretically consistent treatment of competition with belowground consumers led to overall improvements in global carbon cycling predictions.

A system dynamics model of a large R&D program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Namsung

Organizations with large R&D activities must deal with a hierarchy of decision regarding resource allocation. At the highest level of allocation, the decision is related to the total allocation to R&D as some portion of revenue. The middle level of allocation deals with the allocation among phases of the R&D process. The lowest level of decisions relates to the resource allocation to specific projects within a specific phase. This study focuses on developing an R&D model to deal with the middle level of allocation, i.e., the allocation among phases of research such as basic research, development, and demonstration. The methodology used to develop the R&D model is System Dynamics. Our modeling concept is innovative in representing each phase of R&D as consisting of two parts: projects under way, and an inventory of successful but not-yet- exploited projects. In a simple world, this concept can yield an exact analytical solution for allocation of resources among phases. But in a real world, the concept should be improved by adding more complex structures with nonlinear behaviors. Two particular nonlinear feedbacks are incorporated into the R&D model. The probability of success for any specific project is assumed partly dependent upon resources allocated to the project. Further, the time required to reach a conclusion regarding the success or failure of a project is also assumed dependent upon the level of resources allocated. In addition, the number of successful projects partly depends on the inventory of potential ideas in the previous stage that can be exploited. This model can provide R&D management with insights into the effect of changing allocations to phases whether those changes are internally or externally driven. With this model, it is possible to study the effectiveness of management decisions in a continuous fashion. Managers can predict payoffs for a host of different policies. In addition, as new research results accumulate, a re- assessment of program goals can be implemented easily and allocations adjusted to enhance continuously the likelihood of success, and to optimize payoffs. Finally, this model can give managers a quantitative rationale for program evaluation and permit the quantitative assessment of various externally imposed changes. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.)

Assessing Cumulative Impacts of Coal Bed Methane Development on Surface Water Quality and its Suitability for Irrigation in the Powder River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, H. E.

2003-12-01

This paper presents a mass balance approach to assessing the cumulative impacts of discharge from Coal Bed Methane (CBM) wells on surface water quality and its suitability for irrigation in the Powder River Basin. Key water quality parameters for predicting potential effects of CBM development on irrigated agriculture are sodicity, expressed as sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and salinity, expressed as electrical conductivity (EC). The assessment was performed with the aid of a spreadsheet model, which was designed to estimate steady-state SAR and EC at gauged stream locations after mixing with CBM produced water. Model input included ambient stream water quality and flow, CBM produced water quality and discharge rates, conveyance loss (quantity of water loss that may occur between the discharge point and the receiving streams), beneficial uses, regulatory thresholds, and discharge allocation at state-line boundaries. Historical USGS data were used to establish ambient stream water quality and flow conditions. The resultant water quality predicted for each stream station included the cumulative discharge of CBM produced water in all reaches upstream of the station. Model output was presented in both tabular and graphical formats, and indicated the suitability of pre- and post-mixing water quality for irrigation. Advantages and disadvantages of the spreadsheet model are discussed. This approach was used by federal agencies to support the development of the January 2003 Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) for the Wyoming and Montana portions of the Powder River Basin.

Promoting inclusive water governance and forecasting the structure of water consumption based on compositional data: A case study of Beijing.

PubMed

Wei, Yigang; Wang, Zhichao; Wang, Huiwen; Yao, Tang; Li, Yan

2018-09-01

Water is centrally important for agricultural security, environment, people's livelihoods, and socio-economic development, particularly in the face of extreme climate changes. Due to water shortages in many cities, the conflicts between various stakeholders and sectors over water use and allocation are becoming more common and intense. Effective inclusive governance of water use is critical for relieving water use conflicts. In addition, reliable forecasting of the structure of water usage among different sectors is a basic need for effective water governance planning. Although a large number of studies have attempted to forecast water use, little is known about the forecasted structure and trends of water use in the future. This paper aims to develop a forecasting model for the structure of water usage based on compositional data. Compositional data analysis is an effective approach for investigating the internal structure of a system. A host of data transformation methods and forecasting models were adopted and compared in order to derive the best-performing model. According to mean absolute percent error for compositional data (CoMAPE), a hyperspherical-transformation-based vector autoregression model for compositional data (VAR-DRHT) is the best-performing model. The proportions of the agricultural, industrial, domestic and environmental water will be 6.11%, 5.01%, 37.48% and 51.4% by 2020. Several recommendations for water inclusive development are provided to give a better account for the optimization of the water use structure, alleviation of water shortages, and improving stake holders' wellbeing. Overall, although we focus on groundwater, this study presents a powerful framework broadly applicable to resource management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy goal programming model for biodiesel production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutero, D. S.; Pangue, EMU; Tubay, J. M.; Lubag, S. P.

2016-02-01

A fuzzy goal programming (FGP) model for biodiesel production in the Philippines was formulated with Coconut (Cocos nucifera) and Jatropha (Jatropha curcas) as sources of biodiesel. Objectives were maximization of feedstock production and overall revenue and, minimization of energy used in production and working capital for farming subject to biodiesel and non-biodiesel requirements, and availability of land, labor, water and machine time. All these objectives and constraints were assumed to be fuzzy. Model was tested for different sets of weights. Results for all sets of weights showed the same optimal allocation. Coconut alone can satisfy the biodiesel requirement of 2% per volume.

Protecting food security when facing uncertain climate: Opportunities for Afghan communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salman, Dina; Amer, Saud A.; Ward, Frank A.

2017-11-01

Climate change, population growth, and weakly developed water management institutions in many of the world's dry communities have raised the importance of designing innovative water allocation methods that adapt to water supply fluctuations while respecting cultural sensitivities. For example, Afghanistan faces an ancient history of water supply fluctuations that have contributed to periodic food shortage and famine. Poorly designed and weakly enforced water allocation methods continue to result in agriculture sector underperformance and periodic food shortages when water shortfalls occur. To date, little research has examined alternative water sharing rules on a multi-basin scale to protect food security for a subsistence irrigation society when the community faces water shortage. This paper's contribution examines the economic performance of three water-sharing mechanisms for three basins in Afghanistan with the goal of protecting food security for crop irrigation under ongoing threats of drought, while meeting growing demands for food in the face of anticipated population growth. We achieved this by formulating an integrated empirical optimization model to identify water-sharing measures that minimize economic losses while protecting food security when water shortages occur. Findings show that implementation of either a water trading policy or a proportional shortage policy that respects cultural sensitivities has the potential to raise economic welfare in each basin. Such a policy can reduce food insecurity risks for all trading provinces within each basin, thus being a productive institution for adapting to water shortage when it occurs. Total economic welfare gains are highest when drought is the most severe for which suffering would otherwise be greatest. Gains would be considerably higher if water storage reservoirs were built to store wet year flows for use in dry years. Our results light a path for policy makers, donors, water administrators, and farm managers, who shoulder the burden of protecting food security and rural livelihoods in the world's poor dry communities.

Can hydro-economic river basin models simulate water shadow prices under asymmetric access?

PubMed

Kuhn, A; Britz, W

2012-01-01

Hydro-economic river basin models (HERBM) based on mathematical programming are conventionally formulated as explicit 'aggregate optimization' problems with a single, aggregate objective function. Often unintended, this format implicitly assumes that decisions on water allocation are made via central planning or functioning markets such as to maximize social welfare. In the absence of perfect water markets, however, individually optimal decisions by water users will differ from the social optimum. Classical aggregate HERBMs cannot simulate that situation and thus might be unable to describe existing institutions governing access to water and might produce biased results for alternative ones. We propose a new solution format for HERBMs, based on the format of the mixed complementarity problem (MCP), where modified shadow price relations express spatial externalities resulting from asymmetric access to water use. This new problem format, as opposed to commonly used linear (LP) or non-linear programming (NLP) approaches, enables the simultaneous simulation of numerous 'independent optimization' decisions by multiple water users while maintaining physical interdependences based on water use and flow in the river basin. We show that the alternative problem format allows the formulation HERBMs that yield more realistic results when comparing different water management institutions.

Redefining the Australian Army Officer Corps Allocation Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

Allocation Numbers (Model 2) ......................................60 Table 28. 2009 Revised Corps Allocation Overage and Underage (Model 2...characteristics: age, sex , marital status, and length of service. b. organizational characteristics: size of work group, visibility of organization...with minimal alteration to the planned corps allocation numbers. A full list of the corps overages and underages is contained in Table 23. Table

Water use efficiency and integrated water resource management for river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Xiangzheng; Singh, R. B.; Liu, Junguo; Güneralp, Burak

Water use efficiency and management have attracted increasing attention as water has become scare to challenge the world's sustainable development. Water use efficiency is correlated to the land use and cover changes (LUCC), population distribution, industrial structure, economic development, climate changes, and environmental governance. These factors significantly alter water productivity for water balance through the changes in natural environment and socio-economic system (Wang et al., 2015b). Consequently, dynamics of water inefficiency lower the social welfare of water allocation (Wang et al., 2015b), and induce water management alternation interactively and financially (Wang et al., 2015a). This triggers on actual water price changes through both natural resource and socioeconomic system (Zhou et al., 2015). Therefore, it is very important to figure out a mechanism of water allocation in the course of LUCC (Jin et al., 2015) at a global perspective (Zhao et al., 2015), climate and economic changes of ecosystem service at various spatial and temporal scales (Li et al., 2015).

How a new funding model will shift allocations from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria.

PubMed

Fan, Victoria Y; Glassman, Amanda; Silverman, Rachel L

2014-12-01

Policy makers deciding how to fund global health programs in low- and middle-income countries face important but difficult questions about how to allocate resources across countries. In this article we present a typology of three allocation methodologies to align allocations with priorities. We then apply our typology to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. We examined the Global Fund's historical HIV allocations and its predicted allocations under a new funding model that creates an explicit allocation methodology. We found that under the new funding model, substantial shifts in the Global Fund's portfolio are likely to result from concentrating resources in countries with more HIV cases and lower per capita incomes. For example, South Africa, which had 15.8 percent of global HIV cases in 2009, could see its Global Fund HIV funding more than triple, from historic levels that averaged 3.0 percent to 9.7 percent of total Global Fund allocations. The new funding model methodology is expected, but not guaranteed, to improve the efficiency of Global Fund allocations in comparison to historical practice. We conclude with recommendations for the Global Fund and other global health donors to further develop their allocation methodologies and processes to improve efficiency and transparency. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

An Allocation Model for Teaching and Nonteaching Staff in a Decentralized Institution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dijkman, Frank G

1985-01-01

An allocation model for teaching and nonteaching staff developed at the University of Utrecht is characterized as highly normative, leading to lump sums to be allocated to academic departments. Details are given regarding the reasons for designing the new model and the process of implementation. (Author/MLW)

Bringing the Budget Back into Academic Work Allocation Models: A Management Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Michael; Germov, John

2015-01-01

Issues surrounding increasingly constrained resources and reducing levels of sector-based funding require consideration of a different Academic Work Allocation Model (AWAM) approach. Evidence from the literature indicates that an effective work allocation model is founded on the principles of equity and transparency in the distribution and…

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's announced the availability of the final report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) (Version 2). This update furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. This newest version includes updated population and land use data sets and addresses limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide (Final Report) describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

Mind the Roots: Phenotyping Below-Ground Crop Diversity and Its Influence on Final Yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieters, C.; Guadagno, C. R.; Lemli, S.; Hosseini, A.; Ewers, B. E.

2017-12-01

Changes in global climate patterns and water regimes are having profound impacts on worldwide crop production. An ever-growing population paired with increasing temperatures and unpredictable periods of severe drought call for accurate modeling of future crop yield. Although novel approaches are being developed in high-throughput, above-ground image phenotyping, the below-ground plant system is still poorly phenotyped. Collection of plant root morphology and hydraulics are needed to inform mathematical models to reliably estimate yields of crops grown in sub-optimal conditions. We used Brassica rapa to inform our model as it is a globally cultivated crop with several functionally diverse cultivars. Specifically, we use 7 different accessions from oilseed (R500 and Yellow Sarson), leafy type (Pac choi and Chinese cabbage), a vegetable turnip, and two Wisconsin Fast Plants (Imb211 and Fast Plant self-compatible), which have shorter life cycles and potentially large differences in allocation to roots. Bi-weekly, we harvested above and below-ground biomass to compare the varieties in terms of carbon allocation throughout their life cycle. Using WinRhizo software, we analyzed root system length and surface area to compare and contrast root morphology among cultivars. Our results confirm that root structural characteristics are crucial to explain plant water use and carbon allocation. The root:shoot ratio reveals a significant (p < 0.01) difference among crop accession. To validate the procedure across different varieties and life stages we also compared surface area results from the image-based technology to dry biomass finding a strong linear relationship (R2= 0.85). To assess the influence of a diverse above-ground morphology on the root system we also measured above-ground anatomical and physiological traits such as gas exchange, chlorophyll content, and chlorophyll a fluorescence. A thorough analysis of the root system will clarify carbon dynamics and hydraulics at the whole-plant level, improving final yield predictions.

How to get the most bang for your buck: the evolution and physiology of nutrition-dependent resource allocation strategies.

PubMed

Ng'oma, Enoch; Perinchery, Anna M; King, Elizabeth G

2017-06-28

All organisms use resources to grow, survive and reproduce. The supply of these resources varies widely across landscapes and time, imposing ultimate constraints on the maximal trait values for allocation-related traits. In this review, we address three key questions fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of allocation strategies and their underlying mechanisms. First, we ask: how diverse are flexible resource allocation strategies among different organisms? We find there are many, varied, examples of flexible strategies that depend on nutrition. However, this diversity is often ignored in some of the best-known cases of resource allocation shifts, such as the commonly observed pattern of lifespan extension under nutrient limitation. A greater appreciation of the wide variety of flexible allocation strategies leads directly to our second major question: what conditions select for different plastic allocation strategies? Here, we highlight the need for additional models that explicitly consider the evolution of phenotypically plastic allocation strategies and empirical tests of the predictions of those models in natural populations. Finally, we consider the question: what are the underlying mechanisms determining resource allocation strategies? Although evolutionary biologists assume differential allocation of resources is a major factor limiting trait evolution, few proximate mechanisms are known that specifically support the model. We argue that an integrated framework can reconcile evolutionary models with proximate mechanisms that appear at first glance to be in conflict with these models. Overall, we encourage future studies to: (i) mimic ecological conditions in which those patterns evolve, and (ii) take advantage of the 'omic' opportunities to produce multi-level data and analytical models that effectively integrate across physiological and evolutionary theory. © 2017 The Author(s).

How to get the most bang for your buck: the evolution and physiology of nutrition-dependent resource allocation strategies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

All organisms use resources to grow, survive and reproduce. The supply of these resources varies widely across landscapes and time, imposing ultimate constraints on the maximal trait values for allocation-related traits. In this review, we address three key questions fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of allocation strategies and their underlying mechanisms. First, we ask: how diverse are flexible resource allocation strategies among different organisms? We find there are many, varied, examples of flexible strategies that depend on nutrition. However, this diversity is often ignored in some of the best-known cases of resource allocation shifts, such as the commonly observed pattern of lifespan extension under nutrient limitation. A greater appreciation of the wide variety of flexible allocation strategies leads directly to our second major question: what conditions select for different plastic allocation strategies? Here, we highlight the need for additional models that explicitly consider the evolution of phenotypically plastic allocation strategies and empirical tests of the predictions of those models in natural populations. Finally, we consider the question: what are the underlying mechanisms determining resource allocation strategies? Although evolutionary biologists assume differential allocation of resources is a major factor limiting trait evolution, few proximate mechanisms are known that specifically support the model. We argue that an integrated framework can reconcile evolutionary models with proximate mechanisms that appear at first glance to be in conflict with these models. Overall, we encourage future studies to: (i) mimic ecological conditions in which those patterns evolve, and (ii) take advantage of the ‘omic’ opportunities to produce multi-level data and analytical models that effectively integrate across physiological and evolutionary theory. PMID:28637856

An Optimization Framework for Dynamic, Distributed Real-Time Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckert, Klaus; Juedes, David; Welch, Lonnie; Chelberg, David; Bruggerman, Carl; Drews, Frank; Fleeman, David; Parrott, David; Pfarr, Barbara

2003-01-01

Abstract. This paper presents a model that is useful for developing resource allocation algorithms for distributed real-time systems .that operate in dynamic environments. Interesting aspects of the model include dynamic environments, utility and service levels, which provide a means for graceful degradation in resource-constrained situations and support optimization of the allocation of resources. The paper also provides an allocation algorithm that illustrates how to use the model for producing feasible, optimal resource allocations.

Graph theoretical stable allocation as a tool for reproduction of control by human operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Nooijen, Ronald; Ertsen, Maurits; Kolechkina, Alla

2016-04-01

During the design of central control algorithms for existing water resource systems under manual control it is important to consider the interaction with parts of the system that remain under manual control and to compare the proposed new system with the existing manual methods. In graph theory the "stable allocation" problem has good solution algorithms and allows for formulation of flow distribution problems in terms of priorities. As a test case for the use of this approach we used the algorithm to derive water allocation rules for the Gezira Scheme, an irrigation system located between the Blue and White Niles south of Khartoum. In 1925, Gezira started with 300,000 acres; currently it covers close to two million acres.

Precipitation affects plant communication and defense.

PubMed

Pezzola, Enrico; Mancuso, Stefano; Karban, Richard

2017-06-01

Anti-herbivore defense shows high levels of both inter- and intraspecific variability. Defending against herbivores may be costly to the plant when it requires a tradeoff in allocation between defense and other missed opportunities, such as reproduction. Indeed, the plastic expression of defensive traits allows the plant to invest resources in defense only when the risk of being damaged actually increases, avoiding wasted resources. Plants may assess risk by responding to volatile cues emitted by neighbors that are under attack. Most plastic responses likely depend on environmental conditions. In this experiment, we investigated the effect of water availability on resistance induced by volatile cues in sagebrush. We found that plants receiving additional water over summer and/or volatile cues from neighbor donor plants showed reduced herbivore damage compared to control plants. Interestingly, we found no evidence of interactions between additional water and volatile cues. We performed an inferential analysis comparing historical records of the levels of herbivore damage during different years that had different temperature and precipitation accumulations. Results confirmed findings from the experiment, as the regression model indicated that sagebrush was better defended during wetter and hotter seasons. Reports from the literature indicated that sagebrush is extremely sensitive to water availability in the soil. We suggest that water availability may directly affect resistance of herbivory as well as sensitivity to cues of damage. Costs and benefits of allocating resources to defensive traits may vary with environmental conditions. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Environmental control of reproductive phenology and the effect of pollen supplementation on resource allocation in the cleistogamous weed, Ruellia nudiflora (Acanthaceae).

PubMed

Munguía-Rosas, Miguel A; Parra-Tabla, Victor; Ollerton, Jeff; Cervera, J Carlos

2012-02-01

Mixed reproductive strategies may have evolved as a response of plants to cope with environmental variation. One example of a mixed reproductive strategy is dimorphic cleistogamy, where a single plant produces closed, obligately self-pollinated (CL) flowers and open, potentially outcrossed (CH) flowers. Frequently, optimal environmental conditions favour production of more costly CH structures whilst economical and reliable CL structures are produced under less favourable conditions. In this study we explore (1) the effect of light and water on the reproductive phenology and (2) the effect of pollen supplementation on resource allocation to seeds in the cleistogamous weed Ruellia nudiflora. Split-plot field experiments were carried out to assess the effect of shade (two levels: ambient light vs. a reduction of 50 %) and watering (two levels: non-watered vs. watered) on the onset, end and duration of the production of three reproductive structures: CH flowers, CH fruit and CL fruit. We also looked at the effect of these environmental factors on biomass allocation to seeds (seed weight) from obligately self-pollinated flowers (CL), open-pollinated CH flowers and pollen-supplemented CH flowers. CH structures were produced for a briefer period and ended earlier under shaded conditions. These conditions also resulted in an earlier production of CL fruit. Shaded conditions also produced greater biomass allocation to CH seeds receiving extra pollen. Sub-optimal (shaded) conditions resulted in a briefer production period of CH structures whilst these same conditions resulted in an earlier production of CL structures. However, under sub-optimal conditions, plants also allocated more resources to seeds sired from CH flowers receiving large pollen loads. Earlier production of reproductive structures and relatively larger seed might improve subsequent success of CL and pollen-supplemented CH seeds, respectively.

Methodology to Support Dynamic Function Allocation Policies Between Humans and Flight Deck Automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Eric N.

2012-01-01

Function allocation assigns work functions to all agents in a team, both human and automation. Efforts to guide function allocation systematically have been studied in many fields such as engineering, human factors, team and organization design, management science, cognitive systems engineering. Each field focuses on certain aspects of function allocation, but not all; thus, an independent discussion of each does not address all necessary aspects of function allocation. Four distinctive perspectives have emerged from this comprehensive review of literature on those fields: the technology-centered, human-centered, team-oriented, and work-oriented perspectives. Each perspective focuses on different aspects of function allocation: capabilities and characteristics of agents (automation or human), structure and strategy of a team, and work structure and environment. This report offers eight issues with function allocation that can be used to assess the extent to which each of issues exist on a given function allocation. A modeling framework using formal models and simulation was developed to model work as described by the environment, agents, their inherent dynamics, and relationships among them. Finally, to validate the framework and metrics, a case study modeled four different function allocations between a pilot and flight deck automation during the arrival and approach phases of flight.

A GIS based district information system for water resources management and planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2014-05-01

In many watersheds of the Mediterranean Countries, water resources are presently fully or overcommitted. Irrigators are the largest consumers of fresh water in Mediterranean Countries using up to 80% of all allocated water in some regions. Administrative efforts should be directed towards an integrated policy of water allocation which accounts for the characteristics and specificity of each farm, requiring the availability of data bases and management tools (decision support systems) specifically designed to fulfil the objectives of maximizing water use efficiency. The overall objective of this program was the development of a District Information System (DIS) which could be used by stakeholders at purposes of irrigation district day-to-day management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making. The DIS was developed from a GIS-based modelling approach which integrates a generic crop model, a hydraulic module for the water transfer/distribution system and uses remote sensing information. The main sub-objectives were: (i) the development of an operational algorithm to retrieve crop evapotranspiration from remote sensing data, (ii) the development of an information system with friendly user interface for the data base, the crop module and the hydraulic module and (iii) the analysis and validation of management scenarios from model simulations predicting the respective behaviour. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive monthly actual evapotranspiration (ET) values from Landsat TM imagery. Meteorological data from the archive of the Institute for Research and Technology, Thessaly (I.RE.TE.TH) have also been used. The methodology was developed using high quality Landsat TM images during 2007 growing season. Monthly ET values are then used as an input to CROPWAT model. Outputs of CROPWAT model are then used as input for the hydraylic module consisted of TECHNOLOGISMIKI, WATERCAD and WEAP model. Hence, a reference scenario was developed based on the actual situation of the surface irrigation network of the Local Administration of Land Reclamation (LALR) of Pinios river in Greece (Pinios LALR) for the year 2007. The system was calibrated with observed data of that year and the district parameterization was conducted based on the actual operation of the network. Hydraulic model output showed that the water pumped from Pinios LALR is not enough to serve irrigation requirements. Furthermore, the water evaluation and planning model (WEAP) respectively projects the same output since water demand is not covered. Four alternative scenarios were developed to be studied with the DIS: (a) Reduction of channel losses, (b) Alteration of irrigation methods (c) Introduction of greenhouse cultivation and (d) Operation of the future Lake Karla network, this network is designed to fulfil the irrigation needs of agricultural land around the reconstructed Lake Karla reservoir and the water is pumped from the Lake Karla reservoir and is being distributed through a low pressured piped network. The results showed that the water demand variants according to the scenario in study. Simulation of the four alternative scenarios indicated that the alteration of irrigation methods scenario mainly increases the efficiency of the irrigation network.

Applying A Multi-Objective Based Procedure to SWAT Modelling in Alpine Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuo, Y.; Disse, M.; Chiogna, G.

2017-12-01

In alpine catchments, water management practices can lead to conflicts between upstream and downstream stakeholders, like in the Adige river basin (Italy). A correct prediction of available water resources plays an important part, for example, in defining how much water can be stored for hydropower production in upstream reservoirs without affecting agricultural activities downstream. Snow is a crucial hydrological component that highly affects seasonal behavior of streamflow. Therefore, a realistic representation of snow dynamics is fundamental for water management operations in alpine catchments. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been applied in alpine catchments worldwide. However, during model calibration of catchment scale applications, snow parameters were generally estimated based on streamflow records rather than on snow measurements. This may lead to streamflow predictions with wrong snow melt contribution. This work highlights the importance of considering snow measurements in the calibration of the SWAT model for alpine hydrology and compares various calibration methodologies. In addition to discharge records, snow water equivalent time series of both subbasin scale and monitoring station were also utilized to evaluate the model performance by comparing with the SWAT subbasin and elevation band snow outputs. Comparing model results obtained calibrating the model using discharge data only and discharge data along with snow water equivalent data, we show that the latter approach allows us to improve the reliability of snow simulations while maintaining good estimations of streamflow. With a more reliable representation of snow dynamics, the hydrological model can provide more accurate references for proposing adequate water management solutions. This study offers to the wide SWAT user community an effective approach to improve streamflow predictions in alpine catchments and hence support decision makers in water allocation.

Spatial Optimization of Cropping Pattern in an Agricultural Watershed for Food and Biofuel Production with Minimum Downstream Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pv, F.; Sudheer, K.; Chaubey, I.; RAJ, C.; Her, Y.

2013-05-01

Biofuel is considered to be a viable alternative to meet the increasing fuel demand, and therefore many countries are promoting agricultural activities that help increase production of raw material for biofuel production. Mostly, the biofuel is produced from grain based crops such as Corn, and it apparently create a shortage in food grains. Consequently, there have been regulations to limit the ethanol production from grains, and to use cellulosic crops as raw material for biofuel production. However, cultivation of such cellulosic crops may have different effects on water quality in the watershed. Corn stover, one of the potential cellulosic materials, when removed from the agricultural field for biofuel production, causes a decrease in the organic nutrients in the field. This results in increased use of pesticides and fertilizers which in turn affect the downstream water quality due to leaching of the chemicals. On the contrary, planting less fertilizer-intensive cellulosic crops, like Switch Grass and Miscanthus, is expected to reduce the pollutant loadings from the watershed. Therefore, an ecologically viable land use scenario would be a mixed cropping of grain crops and cellulosic crops, that meet the demand for food and biofuel without compromising on the downstream water quality. Such cropping pattern can be arrived through a simulation-optimization framework. Mathematical models can be employed to evaluate various management scenarios related to crop production and to assess its impact on water quality. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is one of the most widely used models in this context. SWAT can simulate the water and nutrient cycles, and also quantify the long-term impacts of land management practices, in a watershed. This model can therefore help take decisions regarding the type of cropping and management practices to be adopted in the watershed such that the water quality in the rivers is maintained at acceptable level. In this study, it is proposed to link SWAT model with an optimization algorithm, whose objective is to identify the optimal cropping pattern that results in maximum biomass production for biofuel generation as well as a minimum guaranteed amount of grain production. The optimal allocation ensures that the downstream water quality in the river is within a desirable limit. The study employed probabilistic information in order to address the uncertainty in model simulations. The residual variance of the model is used to transform the deterministic simulations in to probabilistic information. The proposed framework is illustrated using data pertaining to an agricultural watershed in the USA. The preliminary results of the study are encouraging and suggest that an appropriate combination of Corn, Soyabean, Miscanthus, Switch Grass and Pasture land can be arrived at through the developed framework. The placement of Miscanthus and Switch Grass in the watershed help improve the downstream water quality, while Corn and Soyabean makes it deteriorated. The spatial allocation of these crops therefore certainly plays a major role in the downstream water quality.

Concept for a Wireless Sensor Network to support GIS based water and land resource management in the Aksu-Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doluschitz, Reiner; Feike, Til

2013-04-01

Farmers in the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River suffer from severe seasonal water shortage caused by high fluctuations of river run-off. The uncertainty of water availability makes the planning of crop production and related investments extremely difficult. As a consequence farm management is often sub-optimal, manifesting in low input efficiencies, and the value generated in the agricultural sector being way below its potential. The "Tarim Basin Water Resource Bureau" (TBWRB) was founded in the 1990s. Its major task is to implement a basin wide water resources management plan, which involves fair allocation of water resources among the farmers in the different administrative units along the river. Among others, the lack of reliable and timely information on water quantities and qualities within the major water bodies of the basin hinders the implementation of an effective water management plan. Therefore we introduce the concept of a wireless sensor network (WSN) that provides reliable instantaneous information on the status of all important water resources within the basin. In the first step a GIS including all vital geospatial data, like river courses, channel and reservoir network and capacities, soil and land use map, is built. In the second step a WSN that monitors all important parameters at essential positions throughout the basin needs to be established. Measured parameters comprise meteorological data, river run-off, water levels of reservoirs, groundwater levels, and salinity levels of water resources. All data is centrally collected and processed by the TBWRB. Apart from generating a prompt and complete picture of currently available water resources, the TBWRB can use the system to record actual water allocation, and develop an early warning system for upcoming droughts or floods. Finally an integrated water and land management scheme can be established that allocates resources maximizing the benefits at basin level. Financed by public funding, the data collected by the WSN should be accessible to the public. Considering the environmental, economic and social cost of inefficient, intransparent and unfair allocation of water resources, the investments into a WSN are reasonable. However, it requires strong efforts from highest governmental agencies to enable the TBWRB to compile all the required data (e.g. meteorological, soil, river run-off), which is customarily collected and controlled by the respective administrative unit.

Genotypic variation in biomass allocation in response to field drought has a greater affect on yield than gas exchange or phenology.

PubMed

Edwards, Christine E; Ewers, Brent E; Weinig, Cynthia

2016-08-24

Plant performance in agricultural and natural settings varies with moisture availability, and understanding the range of potential drought responses and the underlying genetic architecture is important for understanding how plants will respond to both natural and artificial selection in various water regimes. Here, we raised genotypes of Brassica rapa under well-watered and drought treatments in the field. Our primary goal was to understand the genetic architecture and yield effects of different drought-escape and dehydration-avoidance strategies. Drought treatments reduced soil moisture by 62 % of field capacity. Drought decreased biomass accumulation and fruit production by as much as 48 %, whereas instantaneous water-use efficiency and root:shoot ratio increased. Genotypes differed in the mean value of all traits and in the sensitivity of biomass accumulation, root:shoot ratio, and fruit production to drought. Bivariate correlations involving gas-exchange and phenology were largely constant across environments, whereas those involving root:shoot varied across treatments. Although root:shoot was typically unrelated to gas-exchange or yield under well-watered conditions, genotypes with low to moderate increases in root:shoot allocation in response to drought survived the growing season, maintained maximum photosynthesis levels, and produced more fruit than genotypes with the greatest root allocation under drought. QTL for gas-exchange and yield components (total biomass or fruit production) had common effects across environments while those for root:shoot were often environment-specific. Increases in root allocation beyond those needed to survive and maintain favorable water relations came at the cost of fruit production. The environment-specific effects of root:shoot ratio on yield and the differential expression of QTL for this trait across water regimes have important implications for efforts to improve crops for drought resistance.

Optimization of Water Resources and Agricultural Activities for Economic Benefit in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIM, J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The limited water resources available for irrigation are a key constraint for the important agricultural sector of Colorado's economy. As climate change and groundwater depletion reshape these resources, it is essential to understand the economic potential of water resources under different agricultural production practices. This study uses a linear programming optimization at the county spatial scale and annual temporal scales to study the optimal allocation of water withdrawal and crop choices. The model, AWASH, reflects streamflow constraints between different extraction points, six field crops, and a distinct irrigation decision for maize and wheat. The optimized decision variables, under different environmental, social, economic, and physical constraints, provide long-term solutions for ground and surface water distribution and for land use decisions so that the state can generate the maximum net revenue. Colorado, one of the largest agricultural producers, is tested as a case study and the sensitivity on water price and on climate variability is explored.

Equitable fund allocation, an economical approach for sustainable waste load allocation.

PubMed

Ashtiani, Elham Feizi; Niksokhan, Mohammad Hossein; Jamshidi, Shervin

2015-08-01

This research aims to study a novel approach for waste load allocation (WLA) to meet environmental, economical, and equity objectives, simultaneously. For this purpose, based on a simulation-optimization model developed for Haraz River in north of Iran, the waste loads are allocated according to discharge permit market. The non-dominated solutions are initially achieved through multiobjective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO). Here, the violation of environmental standards based on dissolved oxygen (DO) versus biochemical oxidation demand (BOD) removal costs is minimized to find economical total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). This can save 41% in total abatement costs in comparison with the conventional command and control policy. The BOD discharge permit market then increases the revenues to 45%. This framework ensures that the environmental limits are fulfilled but the inequity index is rather high (about 4.65). For instance, the discharge permit buyer may not be satisfied about the equity of WLA. Consequently, it is recommended that a third party or institution should be in charge of reallocating the funds. It means that the polluters which gain benefits by unfair discharges should pay taxes (or funds) to compensate the losses of other polluters. This intends to reduce the costs below the required values of the lowest inequity index condition. These compensations of equitable fund allocation (EFA) may help to reduce the dissatisfactions and develop WLA policies. It is concluded that EFA in integration with water quality trading (WQT) is a promising approach to meet the objectives.

Modeling the Water - Quality Effects of Changes to the Klamath River Upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.

2013-01-01

The Link River to Keno Dam (Link-Keno) reach of the Klamath River, Oregon, generally has periods of water-quality impairment during summer, including low dissolved oxygen, elevated concentrations of ammonia and algae, and high pH. Efforts are underway to improve water quality in this reach through a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program and other management and operational actions. To assist in planning, a hydrodynamic and water-quality model was used in this study to provide insight about how various actions could affect water quality in the reach. These model scenarios used a previously developed and calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model of the Link-Keno reach developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Watercourse Engineering Inc., and the Bureau of Reclamation for calendar years 2006-09 (referred to as the "USGS model" in this report). Another model of the same river reach was previously developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality for years 2000 and 2002 and was used in the TMDL process; that model is referred to as the "TMDL model" in this report. This report includes scenarios that (1) assess the effect of TMDL allocations on water quality, (2) provide insight on certain aspects of the TMDL model, (3) assess various methods to improve water quality in this reach, and (4) examine possible water-quality effects of a future warmer climate. Results presented in this report for the first 5 scenarios supersede or augment those that were previously published (scenarios 1 and 2 in Sullivan and others [2011], 3 through 5 in Sullivan and others [2012]); those previous results are still valid, but the results for those scenarios in this report are more current.

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

PubMed

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Insights for empirically modeling evapotranspiration influenced by riparian and upland vegetation in semiarid regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunting, Daniel P.; Kurc, Shirley A.; Glenn, Edward P.; Nagler, Pamela L.; Scott, Russell L.

2014-01-01

Water resource managers aim to ensure long-term water supplies for increasing human populations. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the water balance and accurate estimates are important to quantify safe allocations to humans while supporting environmental needs. Scaling up ET measurements from small spatial scales has been problematic due to spatiotemporal variability. Remote sensing products provide spatially distributed data that account for seasonal climate and vegetation variability. We used MODIS products [i.e., Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and nighttime land surface temperatures (LSTn)] to create empirical ET models calibrated using measured ET from three riparian-influenced and two upland, water-limited flux tower sites. Results showed that combining all sites introduced systematic bias, so we developed separate models to estimate riparian and upland ET. While EVI and LSTn were the main drivers for ET in riparian sites, precipitation replaced LSTn as the secondary driver of ET in upland sites. Riparian ET was successfully modeled using an inverse exponential approach (r2 = 0.92) while upland ET was adequately modeled using a multiple linear regression approach (r2 = 0.77). These models can be used in combination to estimate ET at basin scales provided each region is classified and precipitation data is available.

Evaluation of Water Rights to Reveal Hidden Patterns and Trends in Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grantham, T.; Viers, J. H.

2013-12-01

California's current water management challenges are strongly influenced by the legacy of 19th century legal doctrines, which aim to maximize the appropriation of available water for human uses and benefits. As a consequence and over time, most of the water flowing through the state's rivers and streams has been dedicated through water rights to human uses, limiting potential for sustainable water management and climate change adaptation. This history is recorded in a database of water rights, which contains approximately 50,000 records of diversion and storage projects dating from the early 19th century to the present day. Although water rights records are rarely considered in regional water budgeting, information on the location, age, purpose, and face values of water rights offer insight into the spatial and temporal dimensions of water-use pressures and can be used to identify opportunities for management interventions. Using the state water rights database, we calculated cumulative face-value rights at the HUC12-watershed scale and compared water appropriation volumes with modeled predictions of surface water availability. Total annual allocations of current water rights exceed 340 million-acre feet (4 x 1011 m3), approximately five times the state's mean annual runoff. The total volume of face-value water rights is 25 to 1,000% of annual water availability in major river basins (greater than 400 km2), with the greatest degree of appropriation observed in tributaries to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers and coastal streams in southern California. Trends in water rights appropriation since 1900 indicate periods of rapid demand growth between 1925-1940, 1950-1960, and 1975-1985, which mirror major dam building eras. We illustrate how information on the spatial distribution of water rights, appropriation volumes, and priority of use, can guide strategic planning for re-allocating water for environmental benefits and other management objectives. We also describe how this effort can improve reporting and processing of, and access to, state water rights data for improved decision-making and management of water resources.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

PubMed

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

2016-12-01

Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimization of urban water supply portfolios combining infrastructure capacity expansion and water use decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Fraga, C. C. S.; Marques, G.; Mendes, C. A.

2015-12-01

The expansion and operation of urban water supply systems under rapidly growing demands, hydrologic uncertainty, and scarce water supplies requires a strategic combination of various supply sources for added reliability, reduced costs and improved operational flexibility. The design and operation of such portfolio of water supply sources merits decisions of what and when to expand, and how much to use of each available sources accounting for interest rates, economies of scale and hydrologic variability. The present research provides a framework and an integrated methodology that optimizes the expansion of various water supply alternatives using dynamic programming and combining both short term and long term optimization of water use and simulation of water allocation. A case study in Bahia Do Rio Dos Sinos in Southern Brazil is presented. The framework couples an optimization model with quadratic programming model in GAMS with WEAP, a rain runoff simulation models that hosts the water supply infrastructure features and hydrologic conditions. Results allow (a) identification of trade offs between cost and reliability of different expansion paths and water use decisions and (b) evaluation of potential gains by reducing water system losses as a portfolio component. The latter is critical in several developing countries where water supply system losses are high and often neglected in favor of more system expansion. Results also highlight the potential of various water supply alternatives including, conservation, groundwater, and infrastructural enhancements over time. The framework proves its usefulness for planning its transferability to similarly urbanized systems.

Divergence in plant and microbial allocation strategies explains continental patterns in microbial allocation and biogeochemical fluxes.

PubMed

Averill, Colin

2014-10-01

Allocation trade-offs shape ecological and biogeochemical phenomena at local to global scale. Plant allocation strategies drive major changes in ecosystem carbon cycling. Microbial allocation to enzymes that decompose carbon vs. organic nutrients may similarly affect ecosystem carbon cycling. Current solutions to this allocation problem prioritise stoichiometric tradeoffs implemented in plant ecology. These solutions may not maximise microbial growth and fitness under all conditions, because organic nutrients are also a significant carbon resource for microbes. I created multiple allocation frameworks and simulated microbial growth using a microbial explicit biogeochemical model. I demonstrate that prioritising stoichiometric trade-offs does not optimise microbial allocation, while exploiting organic nutrients as carbon resources does. Analysis of continental-scale enzyme data supports the allocation patterns predicted by this framework, and modelling suggests large deviations in soil C loss based on which strategy is implemented. Therefore, understanding microbial allocation strategies will likely improve our understanding of carbon cycling and climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Optimal allocation model of construction land based on two-level system optimization theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Min; Liu, Yanfang; Xia, Yuping; Lei, Qihong

2007-06-01

The allocation of construction land is an important task in land-use planning. Whether implementation of planning decisions is a success or not, usually depends on a reasonable and scientific distribution method. Considering the constitution of land-use planning system and planning process in China, multiple levels and multiple objective decision problems is its essence. Also, planning quantity decomposition is a two-level system optimization problem and an optimal resource allocation decision problem between a decision-maker in the topper and a number of parallel decision-makers in the lower. According the characteristics of the decision-making process of two-level decision-making system, this paper develops an optimal allocation model of construction land based on two-level linear planning. In order to verify the rationality and the validity of our model, Baoan district of Shenzhen City has been taken as a test case. Under the assistance of the allocation model, construction land is allocated to ten townships of Baoan district. The result obtained from our model is compared to that of traditional method, and results show that our model is reasonable and usable. In the end, the paper points out the shortcomings of the model and further research directions.

40 CFR 35.910 - Allocation of funds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Allocation of funds. 35.910 Section 35.910 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.910...

40 CFR 35.910 - Allocation of funds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Allocation of funds. 35.910 Section 35.910 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.910...

40 CFR 35.910 - Allocation of funds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Allocation of funds. 35.910 Section 35.910 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.910...

40 CFR 35.910 - Allocation of funds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Allocation of funds. 35.910 Section 35.910 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.910...

40 CFR 35.910 - Allocation of funds.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Allocation of funds. 35.910 Section 35.910 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.910...

Plant allocation of carbon to defense as a function of herbivory, light and nutrient availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Ju, Shu; Liu, Rongsong; Bryant, John P.; Gourley, Stephen A.

2012-01-01

We use modeling to determine the optimal relative plant carbon allocations between foliage, fine roots, anti-herbivore defense, and reproduction to maximize reproductive output. The model treats these plant components and the herbivore compartment as variables. Herbivory is assumed to be purely folivory. Key external factors include nutrient availability, degree of shading, and intensity of herbivory. Three alternative functional responses are used for herbivory, two of which are variations on donor-dependent herbivore (models 1a and 1b) and one of which is a Lotka–Volterra type of interaction (model 2). All three were modified to include the negative effect of chemical defenses on the herbivore. Analysis showed that, for all three models, two stable equilibria could occur, which differs from most common functional responses when no plant defense component is included. Optimal strategies of carbon allocation were defined as the maximum biomass of reproductive propagules produced per unit time, and found to vary with changes in external factors. Increased intensity of herbivory always led to an increase in the fractional allocation of carbon to defense. Decreases in available limiting nutrient generally led to increasing importance of defense. Decreases in available light had little effect on defense but led to increased allocation to foliage. Decreases in limiting nutrient and available light led to decreases in allocation to reproduction in models 1a and 1b but not model 2. Increases in allocation to plant defense were usually accompanied by shifts in carbon allocation away from fine roots, possibly because higher plant defense reduced the loss of nutrients to herbivory.

Temperature Effects of Point Sources, Riparian Shading, and Dam Operations on the Willamette River, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rounds, Stewart A.

2007-01-01

Water temperature is an important factor influencing the migration, rearing, and spawning of several important fish species in rivers of the Pacific Northwest. To protect these fish populations and to fulfill its responsibilities under the Federal Clean Water Act, the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality set a water temperature Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) in 2006 for the Willamette River and the lower reaches of its largest tributaries in northwestern Oregon. As a result, the thermal discharges of the largest point sources of heat to the Willamette River now are limited at certain times of the year, riparian vegetation has been targeted for restoration, and upstream dams are recognized as important influences on downstream temperatures. Many of the prescribed point-source heat-load allocations are sufficiently restrictive that management agencies may need to expend considerable resources to meet those allocations. Trading heat allocations among point-source dischargers may be a more economical and efficient means of meeting the cumulative point-source temperature limits set by the TMDL. The cumulative nature of these limits, however, precludes simple one-to-one trades of heat from one point source to another; a more detailed spatial analysis is needed. In this investigation, the flow and temperature models that formed the basis of the Willamette temperature TMDL were used to determine a spatially indexed 'heating signature' for each of the modeled point sources, and those signatures then were combined into a user-friendly, spreadsheet-based screening tool. The Willamette River Point-Source Heat-Trading Tool allows the user to increase or decrease the heating signature of each source and thereby evaluate the effects of a wide range of potential point-source heat trades. The predictions of the Trading Tool were verified by running the Willamette flow and temperature models under four different trading scenarios, and the predictions typically were accurate to within about 0.005 degrees Celsius (?C). In addition to assessing the effects of point-source heat trades, the models were used to evaluate the temperature effects of several shade-restoration scenarios. Restoration of riparian shade along the entire Long Tom River, from its mouth to Fern Ridge Dam, was calculated to have a small but significant effect on daily maximum temperatures in the main-stem Willamette River, on the order of 0.03?C where the Long Tom River enters the Willamette River, and diminishing downstream. Model scenarios also were run to assess the effects of restoring selected 5-mile reaches of riparian vegetation along the main-stem Willamette River from river mile (RM) 176.80, just upstream of the point where the McKenzie River joins the Willamette River, to RM 116.87 near Albany, which is one location where cumulative point-source heating effects are at a maximum. Restoration of riparian vegetation along the main-stem Willamette River was shown by model runs to have a significant local effect on daily maximum river temperatures (0.046 to 0.194?C) at the site of restoration. The magnitude of the cooling depends on many factors including river width, flow, time of year, and the difference in vegetation characteristics between current and restored conditions. Downstream of the restored reach, the cooling effects are complex and have a nodal nature: at one-half day of travel time downstream, shade restoration has little effect on daily maximum temperature because water passes the restoration site at night; at 1 full day of travel time downstream, cooling effects increase to a second, diminished maximum. Such spatial complexities may complicate the trading of heat allocations between point and nonpoint sources. Upstream dams have an important effect on water temperature in the Willamette River system as a result of augmented flows as well as modified temperature releases over the course of the summer and autumn. The TMDL was formulated prior t

75 FR 36301 - Review and Approval of Projects

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-25

... Basin Commission (Commission) to: Include subsidiary allocations for public water supply systems under... or removal of water by a public water supplier indirectly through another public water supply system... applications that do not involve a withdrawal (such as those supplied by a public water supplier), newspaper...

Canopy architecture of a walnut orchard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ustin, Susan L.; Martens, Scott N.; Vanderbilt, Vern C.

1991-01-01

A detailed dataset describing the canopy geometry of a walnut orchard was acquired to support testing and comparison of the predictions of canopy microwave and optical inversion models. Measured canopy properties included the quantity, size, and orientation of stems, leaves, and fruit. Eight trees receiving 100 percent of estimated potential evapotranspiration water use and eight trees receiving 33 percent of potential water use were measured. The vertical distributions of stem, leaf, and fruit properties are presented with respect to irrigation treatment. Zenith and probability distributions for stems and leaf normals are presented. These data show that, after two years of reduced irrigation, the trees receiving only 33 percent of their potential water requirement had reduced fruit yields, lower leaf area index, and altered allocation of biomass within the canopy.

Efficacy of adaptation measures to future water scarcity on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, S.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Water supply sources for all sector are critically important for agricultural and industrial productivity. The current rapid increase in water use is considered unsustainable and threatens human life. In our previous study (Yoshikawa et al., 2014 in HESS), we estimated the time-varying dependence of water requirements from water supply sources during past and future periods using the global water resources model, H08. The sources of water requirements were specified using four categories: rivers, large reservoirs, medium-size reservoirs, and non-local non-renewable blue water (NNBW). We also estimated ΔNNBW which is defined as an increase in NNBW from the past to the future. From the results, we could require the further development of water supply sources in order to sustain future water use. For coping with water scarcity using ΔNNBW, there is need for adaptation measure. To address adaptation measures, we need to set adaptation options which can be divided between 'Supply enhancement' and 'Demand management'. The supply enhancement includes increased storage, groundwater development, inter-basin transfer, desalination and re-use urban waste water. Demand management is defined as a set of actions controlling water demand by reducing water loss, increasing water productivity, and water re-allocation. In this study, we focus on estimating further future water demand under taking into account of several adaptation measures using H08 model.

Simulated effects of groundwater withdrawals from aquifers in Ocean County and vicinity, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cauller, Stephen J.; Voronin, Lois M.; Chepiga, Mary M.

2016-10-21

Rapid population growth since the 1930s in Ocean County and vicinity, New Jersey, has placed increasing demands upon the area’s freshwater resources. To examine effects of groundwater withdrawals, a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate the groundwater-flow systems of five area aquifers: the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and Vincentown aquifer, and three confined aquifers— the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Piney Point aquifer. The influence of withdrawals is evaluated by using transient groundwater-flow model simulations that incorporate three withdrawal schemes. These are (1) no-withdrawal conditions; (2) 2000–03 withdrawal conditions, using reported monthly withdrawals at all production wells from January 2000 through December 2003; and (3) maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions using the maximum withdrawal allowed by New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection permits at each well. Particle tracking analysis, using results from model simulations, delineated particle flow paths from production wells to the point of recharge, and estimated particle travel times.Compared with no-withdrawal conditions, 2000–03 withdrawal conditions reduced the amount of groundwater flow out of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system into streams, increased the net flow of water into other layers, reduced net flow into or out of storage, and reduced flow from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system to constant head cells.Freshwater discharging to the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor estuary from streams and groundwater is essential to maintaining the ecology of the bay. Examination of selected stress periods indicates that simulated base flow in streams flowing into the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor estuary is reduced by as much as 49 cubic feet per second for 2000 to 2003 withdrawal conditions when compared with no-withdrawal conditions.In the three confined aquifers, water levels during periods of low recharge and high withdrawals, and high recharge and low withdrawals, were examined to determine seasonal effects on the confined flow systems. The simulated potentiometric surface of the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand during selected stress periods indicates substantial declines from no-withdrawal conditions to 2000–03 conditions as a result of groundwater withdrawals. Cones of depression in Toms River Township, Seaside Heights and Seaside Park Boroughs, and Barnegat Light Borough developed in the potentiometric surface of the Piney Point aquifer in response to withdrawals.Maximum-allocation withdrawals decreased flow out of the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system to constant head cells, increased flow out of the aquifer system to adjacent and lower layers, and reduced groundwater discharge to streams when compared with 2000–03 withdrawal conditions. Increases in withdrawals from the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, the Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Piney Point aquifer result in an increase in simulated net groundwater flow into these aquifers. Base-flow reduction from 2000–03 conditions to maximum-allocation conditions of 25 to 29 cubic feet per second in all streams draining to the Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor also is indicated. Potentiometric surfaces of the Rio Grande water-bearing zone, Atlantic City 800-foot sand, and the Piney Point aquifer during two stress periods of simulated maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions indicated the expansion of several cones of depression developed during 2000–03 withdrawals.Simulation of average 2000–03 withdrawal conditions indicated the extent to which the groundwater-flow system is susceptible to potential saltwater intrusion into near-shore wells. Travel time from recharge to discharge location ranged from 11 to approximately 50,700 years in near-shore Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system wells. Those in Seaside Heights Borough, in Island Beach State Park (Berkeley Township), and in Ship Bottom Borough have particle travel times from 140 to 12,000 years and flow paths that originated under Barnegat Bay or the Atlantic Ocean from the simulation of average maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions.Travel time along flow paths to wells screened in the Rio Grande water-bearing zone and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand from recharge to discharge point ranged from nearly 530 years to greater than 3.73 million years from the simulation of average 2000–03 withdrawal conditions. Particle tracking indicated that most wells screened in these aquifers derived a large part of their recharge from the Oswego River Basin, with a small portion of flow originating either beneath Barnegat Bay or to the east beneath the Atlantic Ocean. Travel time along flow paths that start beneath either Barnegat Bay or the Atlantic Ocean ranged from 2,300 to approximately 134,000 years from the simulation of average maximum-allocation withdrawal conditions."

A Model of Resource Allocation in Public School Districts: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chambers, Jay G.

This paper formulates a comprehensive model of resource allocation in a local public school district. The theoretical framework specified could be applied equally well to any number of local public social service agencies. Section 1 develops the theoretical model describing the process of resource allocation. This involves the determination of the…

Resource Allocation Models and Accountability: A Jamaican Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Powell, Philip

2008-01-01

Higher education institutions (HEIs) may be funded privately, by the state or by a mixture of the two. Nevertheless, any state financing of HE necessitates a mechanism to determine the level of support and the channels through which it is to be directed; that is, a resource allocation model. Public funding, through resource allocation models,…

GENERATING SOPHISTICATED SPATIAL SURROGATES USING THE MIMS SPATIAL ALLOCATOR

EPA Science Inventory

The Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS) Spatial Allocator is open-source software for generating spatial surrogates for emissions modeling, changing the map projection of Shapefiles, and performing other types of spatial allocation that does not require the use of a comm...

Germination season and watering regime, but not seed morph, affect life history traits in a cold desert diaspore-heteromorphic annual.

PubMed

Lu, Juan J; Tan, Dun Y; Baskin, Jerry M; Baskin, Carol C

2014-01-01

Seed morph, abiotic conditions and time of germination can affect plant fitness, but few studies have tested their combined effects on plasticity of plant life history traits. Thus, we tested the hypothesis that seed morph, germination season and watering regime influence phenotypic expression of post-germination life history traits in the diaspore-heteromorphic cold desert winter annual/spring ephemeral Diptychocarpus strictus. The two seed morphs were sown in watered and non-watered plots in late summer, and plants derived from them were watered or not-watered throughout the study. Seed morph did not affect phenology, growth and morphology, survival, dry mass accumulation and allocation or silique and seed production. Seeds in watered plots germinated in autumn (AW) and spring (SW) but only in spring for non-watered plots (SNW). A high percentage of AW, SW and SNW plants survived and reproduced, but flowering date and flowering period of autumn- vs. spring-germinated plants differed. Dry mass also differed with germination season/watering regime (AW > SW > SNW). Number of siliques and seeds increased with plant size (AW > SW > SNW), whereas percent dry mass allocated to reproduction was higher in small plants: SNW > SW > AW. Thus, although seed morph did not affect the expression of life history traits, germination season and watering regime significantly affected phenology, plant size and accumulation and allocation of biomass to reproduction. Flexibility throughout the life cycle of D. strictus is an adaptation to the variation in timing and amount of rainfall in its cold desert habitat.

Optimal investment in a portfolio of HIV prevention programs.

PubMed

Zaric, G S; Brandeau, M L

2001-01-01

In this article, the authors determine the optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds and investigate the impact of different allocation methods on health outcomes. The authors present a resource allocation model that can be used to determine the allocation of HIV prevention funds that maximizes quality-adjusted life years (or life years) gained or HIV infections averted in a population over a specified time horizon. They apply the model to determine the allocation of a limited budget among 3 types of HIV prevention programs in a population of injection drug users and nonusers: needle exchange programs, methadone maintenance treatment, and condom availability programs. For each prevention program, the authors estimate a production function that relates the amount invested to the associated change in risky behavior. The authors determine the optimal allocation of funds for both objective functions for a high-prevalence population and a low-prevalence population. They also consider the allocation of funds under several common rules of thumb that are used to allocate HIV prevention resources. It is shown that simpler allocation methods (e.g., allocation based on HIV incidence or notions of equity among population groups) may lead to alloctions that do not yield the maximum health benefit. The optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds in a population depends on HIV prevalence and incidence, the objective function, the production functions for the prevention programs, and other factors. Consideration of cost, equity, and social and political norms may be important when allocating HIV prevention funds. The model presented in this article can help decision makers determine the health consequences of different allocations of funds.

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE PAGES

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; ...

2016-05-02

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: A global-scale model comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, modelmore » structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Furthermore, current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.« less

Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Model Development for Large Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aliyari, F.; Bailey, R. T.; Tasdighi, A.

2017-12-01

Water management in semi-arid river basins requires allocating water resources between urban, industrial, energy, and agricultural sectors, with the latter competing for necessary irrigation water to sustain crop yield. Competition between these sectors will intensify due to changes in climate and population growth. In this study, the recently developed SWAT-MODFLOW coupled hydrologic model is modified for application in a large managed river basin that provides both surface water and groundwater resources for urban and agricultural areas. Specific modifications include the linkage of groundwater pumping and irrigation practices and code changes to allow for the large number of SWAT hydrologic response units (HRU) required for a large river basin. The model is applied to the South Platte River Basin (SPRB), a 56,980 km2 basin in northeastern Colorado dominated by large urban areas along the front range of the Rocky Mountains and agriculture regions to the east. Irregular seasonal and annual precipitation and 150 years of urban and agricultural water management history in the basin provide an ideal test case for the SWAT-MODFLOW model. SWAT handles land surface and soil zone processes whereas MODFLOW handles groundwater flow and all sources and sinks (pumping, injection, bedrock inflow, canal seepage, recharge areas, groundwater/surface water interaction), with recharge and stream stage provided by SWAT. The model is tested against groundwater levels, deep percolation estimates, and stream discharge. The model will be used to quantify spatial groundwater vulnerability in the basin under scenarios of climate change and population growth.

The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

2013-12-01

In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be converted into hydro-economic models.

Water and the Ecosystems of the Luquillo Experimental Forest

Treesearch

Ariel E. Lugo

1986-01-01

Water dynamics, water balance, and water requirements of the ecosystems and aquatic organisms of the Luquillo Experimental Forest (aka Caribbean National Forest) are reviewed. Objective is to draw attention to research needs and to highlight importance of freshwater allocations to natural ecosystems.

Challenging terrestrial biosphere models with data from the long-term multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Kauwe, M. G.; Medlyn, B.; Walker, A.; Zaehle, S.; Pendall, E.; Norby, R. J.

2017-12-01

Multifactor experiments are often advocated as important for advancing models, yet to date, such models have only been tested against single-factor experiments. We applied 10 models to the multifactor Prairie Heating and CO2 Enrichment (PHACE) experiment in Wyoming, USA. Our goals were to investigate how multifactor experiments can be used to constrain models and to identify a road map for model improvement. We found models performed poorly in ambient conditions: comparison with data highlighted model failures particularly with respect to carbon allocation, phenology, and the impact of water stress on phenology. Performance against the observations from single-factors treatments was also relatively poor. In addition, similar responses were predicted for different reasons across models: there were large differences among models in sensitivity to water stress and, among the nitrogen cycle models, nitrogen availability during the experiment. Models were also unable to capture observed treatment effects on phenology: they overestimated the effect of warming on leaf onset and did not allow CO2-induced water savings to extend the growing season length. Observed interactive (CO2 × warming) treatment effects were subtle and contingent on water stress, phenology, and species composition. As the models did not correctly represent these processes under ambient and single-factor conditions, little extra information was gained by comparing model predictions against interactive responses. We outline a series of key areas in which this and future experiments could be used to improve model predictions of grassland responses to global change.

Optimal manpower allocation in aircraft line maintenance (Case in GMF AeroAsia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puteri, V. E.; Yuniaristanto, Hisjam, M.

2017-11-01

This paper presents a mathematical modeling to find the optimal manpower allocation in an aircraft line maintenance. This research focuses on assigning the number and type of manpower that allocated to each service. This study considers the licenced worker or Aircraft Maintenance Engineer Licence (AMEL) and non licenced worker or Aircraft Maintenance Technician (AMT). In this paper, we also consider the relationship of each station in terms of the possibility to transfer the manpower among them. The optimization model considers the number of manpowers needed for each service and the requirement of AMEL worker. This paper aims to determine the optimal manpower allocation using the mathematical modeling. The objective function of the model is to find the minimum employee expenses. The model was solved using the ILOG CPLEX software. The results show that the manpower allocation can meet the manpower need and the all load can be served.

Seasonal Evaporation and Surface Energy Budget Estimation Across an Arid Agricultural Region in Saudi Arabia: Quantifying Groundwater Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, B.; Huang, D.; Houborg, R.; Dasari, H. P.; Hoteit, I.; McCabe, M.

2017-12-01

In arid-land agricultural environments, knowledge of the water and energy budget is critical in order to sustainably manage the allocation and use of water resources. Using long-term weather reanalysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a time-series record of Landsat 8 imagery, we apply the Priestly-Taylor Jet Propulsion Lab (PT-JPL) model to estimate the energy budget over the Al Jawf agricultural region in the north of Saudi Arabia. This zone generates a significant proportion of the agricultural production in Saudi Arabia and consumes an important fraction of the non-renewable water resources. This research contributes towards efforts seeking to quantify the precise amount of water that is used in agriculture - a difficult variable given that the overwhelming majority of supply comes from groundwater extraction. Results of this research can be used to improve crop management and to mitigate aquifer over-exploitation by monitoring the indiscriminate use of water and establishing bounds around the rates of groundwater withdrawal.

A Web Application for Validating and Disseminating Surface Energy Balance Evapotranspiration Estimates for Hydrologic Modeling Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, C. A.; Aggett, G. R.; Nevo, A.; Babel, N. C.; Hattendorf, M. J.

2008-12-01

The western United States face an increasing threat from drought - and the social, economic, and environmental impacts that come with it. The combination of diminished water supplies along with increasing demand for urban and other uses is rapidly depleting surface and ground water reserves traditionally allocated for agricultural use. Quantification of water consumptive use is increasingly important as water resources are placed under growing tension by increased users and interests. Scarce water supplies can be managed more efficiently through use of information and prediction tools accessible via the internet. METRIC (Mapping ET at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration) represents a maturing technology for deriving a remote sensing-based surface energy balance for estimating ET from the earth's surface. This technology has the potential to become widely adopted and used by water resources communities providing critical support to a host of water decision support tools. ET images created using METRIC or similar remote- sensing based processing systems could be routinely used as input to operational and planning models for water demand forecasting, reservoir operations, ground-water management, irrigation water supply planning, water rights regulation, and for the improvement, validation, and use of hydrological models. The ET modeling and subsequent validation and distribution of results via the web presented here provides a vehicle through which METRIC ET parameters can be made more accessible to hydrologic modelers. It will enable users of the data to assess the results of the spatially distributed ET modeling and compare with results from conventional ET estimation methods prior to assimilation in surface and ground water models. In addition, this ET-Server application will provide rapid and transparent access to the data enabling quantification of uncertainties due to errors in temporal sampling and METRIC modeling, while the GIS-based analytical tools will facilitate quality assessments associated with the selected spatio-temporal scale of interest.

Constructing a framework for risk analyses of climate change effects on the water budget of differently sloped vineyards with a numeric simulation using the Monte Carlo method coupled to a water balance model

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Marco; Lux, Robert; Schultz, Hans R.

2014-01-01

Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively, green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over 2 years. The results showed good agreement of modeled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity (SWC) and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in SWC. The improved model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes. PMID:25540646

40 CFR 35.925-4 - State allocation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false State allocation. 35.925-4 Section 35.925-4 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.925-4 State...

40 CFR 35.925-4 - State allocation.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State allocation. 35.925-4 Section 35.925-4 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GRANTS AND OTHER FEDERAL ASSISTANCE STATE AND LOCAL ASSISTANCE Grants for Construction of Treatment Works-Clean Water Act § 35.925-4 State...

78 FR 64916 - Circular Welded Carbon Steel Pipes and Tubes From Turkey: Final Results of Countervailing Duty...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-30

...: Land Allocation National Restructuring Program Regional Incentive Scheme: Reduced Corporate Tax Rates Regional Incentive Scheme: Social Security Premium Contribution for Employees Regional Incentive Scheme: Allocation of State Land Regional Incentive Scheme: Interest Support OIZ: Waste Water Charges OIZ: Exemptions...

Calcium partitioning and allocation and blossom-end rot development in tomato plants in response to whole-plant and fruit-specific abscisic acid treatments.

PubMed

Tonetto de Freitas, Sergio; McElrone, Andrew J; Shackel, Kenneth A; Mitcham, Elizabeth J

2014-01-01

The mechanisms regulating Ca(2+) partitioning and allocation in plants and fruit remain poorly understood. The objectives of this study were to determine Ca(2+) partitioning and allocation in tomato plants and fruit in response to whole-plant and fruit-specific abscisic acid (ABA) treatments, as well as to analyse the effect of changes in Ca(2+) partitioning and allocation on fruit susceptibility to the Ca(2+) deficiency disorder blossom-end rot (BER) under water stress conditions. Tomato plants of the cultivar Ace 55 (Vf) were grown in a greenhouse and exposed to low Ca(2+) conditions during fruit growth and development. Starting 1 day after pollination (DAP), the following treatments were initiated: (i) whole plants were sprayed weekly with deionized water (control) or (ii) with 500mg l(-1) ABA; or fruit on each plant were dipped weekly (iii) in deionized water (control) or (iv) in 500mg l(-1) ABA. At 15 DAP, BER was completely prevented by whole-plant or fruit-specific ABA treatments, whereas plants or fruit treated with water had 16-19% BER incidence. At 30 DAP, BER was prevented by the whole-plant ABA treatment, whereas fruit dipped in ABA had a 16% and water-treated plants or fruit had a 36-40% incidence of BER. The results showed that spraying the whole plant with ABA increases xylem sap flow and Ca(2+) movement into the fruit, resulting in higher fruit tissue and water-soluble apoplastic Ca(2+) concentrations that prevent BER development. Although fruit-specific ABA treatment had no effect on xylem sap flow rates or Ca(2+) movement into the fruit, it increased fruit tissue water-soluble apoplastic Ca(2+) concentrations and reduced fruit susceptibility to BER to a lesser extent.

Calcium partitioning and allocation and blossom-end rot development in tomato plants in response to whole-plant and fruit-specific abscisic acid treatments

PubMed Central

Tonetto de Freitas, Sergio

2014-01-01

The mechanisms regulating Ca2+ partitioning and allocation in plants and fruit remain poorly understood. The objectives of this study were to determine Ca2+ partitioning and allocation in tomato plants and fruit in response to whole-plant and fruit-specific abscisic acid (ABA) treatments, as well as to analyse the effect of changes in Ca2+ partitioning and allocation on fruit susceptibility to the Ca2+ deficiency disorder blossom-end rot (BER) under water stress conditions. Tomato plants of the cultivar Ace 55 (Vf) were grown in a greenhouse and exposed to low Ca2+ conditions during fruit growth and development. Starting 1 day after pollination (DAP), the following treatments were initiated: (i) whole plants were sprayed weekly with deionized water (control) or (ii) with 500mg l−1 ABA; or fruit on each plant were dipped weekly (iii) in deionized water (control) or (iv) in 500mg l−1 ABA. At 15 DAP, BER was completely prevented by whole-plant or fruit-specific ABA treatments, whereas plants or fruit treated with water had 16–19% BER incidence. At 30 DAP, BER was prevented by the whole-plant ABA treatment, whereas fruit dipped in ABA had a 16% and water-treated plants or fruit had a 36–40% incidence of BER. The results showed that spraying the whole plant with ABA increases xylem sap flow and Ca2+ movement into the fruit, resulting in higher fruit tissue and water-soluble apoplastic Ca2+ concentrations that prevent BER development. Although fruit-specific ABA treatment had no effect on xylem sap flow rates or Ca2+ movement into the fruit, it increased fruit tissue water-soluble apoplastic Ca2+ concentrations and reduced fruit susceptibility to BER to a lesser extent. PMID:24220654

Water, Energy, and Food Nexus: Modeling of Inter-Basin Resources Trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIm, T. W.; Kang, D.; Wicaksono, A.; Jeong, G.; Jang, B. J.; Ahn, J.

2016-12-01

The water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is an emerging issue in the concern of fulfilling the human requirements with a lack of available resources. The WEF nexus concept arises to develop a sustainable resources planning and management. In the concept, the three valuable resources (i.e. water, energy, and food) are inevitably interconnected thus it becomes a challenge for researchers to understand the complicated interdependency. A few studies have been committed for interpreting and implementing the WEF nexus using a computer based simulation model. Some of them mentioned that a trade-off is one alternative solution that can be taken to secure the available resources. Taking a concept of inter-basin water transfer, this study attempts to introduce an idea to develop a WEF nexus model for inter-basin resources trading simulation. Using the trading option among regions (e.g., cities, basins, or even countries), the model provides an opportunity to increase overall resources availability without draining local resources. The proposed model adopted the calculation process of an amount of water, energy, and food from a nation-wide model, with additional input and analysis process to simulate the resources trading between regions. The proposed model is applied for a hypothetic test area in South Korea for demonstration purposes. It is anticipated that the developed model can be a decision tool for efficient resources allocation for sustainable resources management. Acknowledgements This study was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

An Allocation Model for Teaching and Non-Teaching Staff in a Decentralized Institution. AIR 1984 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dijkman, Frank G.

A new allocation model for teaching and nonteaching staff has been developed at the University of Utrecht, in the Netherlands. The model may be characterized as highly normative, leading to lump sums to be allocated to academic departments. These departments in turn are free, within constraints, to budget their activities differently than is…

A novel profit-allocation strategy for SDN enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Wei; Hou, Ye; Tian, Longwei; Li, Yuan

2017-01-01

Aiming to solve the problem of profit allocation for supply and demand network (SDN) enterprises that ignores risk factors and generates low satisfaction, a novel profit-allocation model based on cooperative game theory and TOPSIS is proposed. This new model avoids the defect of the single-profit allocation model by introducing risk factors, compromise coefficients and high negotiation points. By measuring the Euclidean distance between the ideal solution vector and the negative ideal solution vector, every node's satisfaction problem for the SDN was resolved, and the mess phenomenon was avoided. Finally, the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model was verified using a numerical example.

Evaluating the Community Land Model in a pine stand with shading manipulations and 13CO2 labeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Warren, J. M.; King, A. W.; Shi, X.; Iversen, C. M.; Norby, R. J.

2016-02-01

Carbon allocation and flow through ecosystems regulates land surface-atmosphere CO2 exchange and thus is a key, albeit uncertain, component of mechanistic models. The Partitioning in Trees and Soil (PiTS) experiment-model project tracked carbon allocation through a young Pinus taeda stand following pulse labeling with 13CO2 and two levels of shading. The field component of this project provided process-oriented data that were used to evaluate terrestrial biosphere model simulations of rapid shifts in carbon allocation and hydrological dynamics under varying environmental conditions. Here we tested the performance of the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) in capturing short-term carbon and water dynamics in relation to manipulative shading treatments and the timing and magnitude of carbon fluxes through various compartments of the ecosystem. When calibrated with pretreatment observations, CLM4 was capable of closely simulating stand-level biomass, transpiration, leaf-level photosynthesis, and pre-labeling 13C values. Over the 3-week treatment period, CLM4 generally reproduced the impacts of shading on soil moisture changes, relative change in stem carbon, and soil CO2 efflux rate. Transpiration under moderate shading was also simulated well by the model, but even with optimization we were not able to simulate the high levels of transpiration observed in the heavy shading treatment, suggesting that the Ball-Berry conductance model is inadequate for these conditions. The calibrated version of CLM4 gave reasonable estimates of label concentration in phloem and in soil surface CO2 after 3 weeks of shade treatment, but it lacks the mechanisms needed to track the labeling pulse through plant tissues on shorter timescales. We developed a conceptual model for photosynthate transport based on the experimental observations, and we discussed conditions under which the hypothesized mechanisms could have an important influence on model behavior in larger-scale applications. Implications for future experimental studies are described, some of which are already being implemented in follow-on studies.

Shale gas wastewater management under uncertainty.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y; Duncan, Ian J

2016-01-01

This work presents an optimization framework for evaluating different wastewater treatment/disposal options for water management during hydraulic fracturing (HF) operations. This framework takes into account both cost-effectiveness and system uncertainty. HF has enabled rapid development of shale gas resources. However, wastewater management has been one of the most contentious and widely publicized issues in shale gas production. The flowback and produced water (known as FP water) generated by HF may pose a serious risk to the surrounding environment and public health because this wastewater usually contains many toxic chemicals and high levels of total dissolved solids (TDS). Various treatment/disposal options are available for FP water management, such as underground injection, hazardous wastewater treatment plants, and/or reuse. In order to cost-effectively plan FP water management practices, including allocating FP water to different options and planning treatment facility capacity expansion, an optimization model named UO-FPW is developed in this study. The UO-FPW model can handle the uncertain information expressed in the form of fuzzy membership functions and probability density functions in the modeling parameters. The UO-FPW model is applied to a representative hypothetical case study to demonstrate its applicability in practice. The modeling results reflect the tradeoffs between economic objective (i.e., minimizing total-system cost) and system reliability (i.e., risk of violating fuzzy and/or random constraints, and meeting FP water treatment/disposal requirements). Using the developed optimization model, decision makers can make and adjust appropriate FP water management strategies through refining the values of feasibility degrees for fuzzy constraints and the probability levels for random constraints if the solutions are not satisfactory. The optimization model can be easily integrated into decision support systems for shale oil/gas lifecycle management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing Multi-model Ensemble for Precipitation and Temperature Seasonal Forecasts: Implications for Karkheh River Basin in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Husain; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Wanders, Niko; Wood, Eric; Irannejad, Parviz; Robertson, Andrew

2017-04-01

Water resource managers can utilize reliable seasonal forecasts for allocating water between different users within a water year. In the west of Iran where a decline of renewable water resources has been observed, basin-wide water management has been the subject of many inter-provincial conflicts in recent years. The problem is exacerbated when the environmental water requirements is not provided leaving the Hoor-al-Azim marshland in the downstream dry. It has been argued that information on total seasonal rainfall can support the Iranian Ministry of Energy within the water year. This study explores the skill of the North America Multi Model Ensemble for Karkheh River Basin in the of west Iran. NMME seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts from eight models are evaluated against PERSIANN-CDR and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets. Analysis suggests that anomaly correlation for both precipitation and temperature is greater than 0.4 for all individual models. Lead time-dependent seasonal forecasts are improved when a multi-model ensemble is developed for the river basin using stepwise linear regression model. MME R-squared exceeds 0.6 for temperature for almost all initializations suggesting high skill of NMME in Karkheh river basin. The skill of MME for rainfall forecasts is high for 1-month lead time for October, February, March and October initializations. However, for months when the amount of rainfall accounts for a significant proportion of total annual rainfall, the skill of NMME is limited a month in advance. It is proposed that operational regional water companies incorporate NMME seasonal forecasts into water resource planning and management, especially during growing seasons that are essential for agricultural risk management.

Spatial Mapping of Agricultural Water Productivity Using the SWAT Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thokal, Rajesh Tulshiram; Gorantiwar, S. D.; Kothari, Mahesh; Bhakar, S. R.; Nandwana, B. P.

2015-03-01

The Sina river basin is facing both episodic and chronic water shortages due to intensive irrigation development. The main objective of this study was to characterize the hydrologic processes of the Sina river basin and assess crop water productivity using the distributed hydrologic model, SWAT. In the simulation year (1998-1999), the inflow to reservoir from upstream side was the major contributor to the reservoir accounting for 92 % of the total required water release for irrigation purpose (119.5 Mm3), while precipitation accounted for 4.1 Mm3. Annual release of water for irrigation was 119.5 Mm3 out of which 54 % water was diverted for irrigation purpose, 26 % was wasted as conveyance loss, average discharge at the command outlet was estimated as 4 % and annual average ground-water recharge coefficient was in the range of 13-17 %. Various scenarios involving water allocation rule were tested with the goal of increasing economic water productivity values in the Sina Irrigation Scheme. Out of those, only most benefited allocation rule is analyzed in this paper. Crop yield varied from 1.98 to 25.9 t/ha, with the majority of the area between 2.14 and 2.78 t/ha. Yield and WP declined significantly in loamy soils of the irrigation command. Crop productivity in the basin was found in the lower range when compared with potential and global values. The findings suggested that there was a potential to improve further. Spatial variations in yield and WP were found to be very high for the crops grown during rabi season, while those were low for the crops grown during kharif season. The crop yields and WP during kharif season were more in the lower reach of the irrigation commands, where loamy soil is more concentrated. Sorghum in both seasons was most profitable. Sorghum fetched net income fivefold that of sunflower, two and half fold of pearl millet and one and half fold of mung beans as far as crop during kharif season were concerned and it fetched fourfold that of groundnut, threefold of wheat, twofold of onion during rabi season and was sevenfold of sugarcane. Analysis suggests that maximization of the area by provision of supplemental irrigation to rainfed areas as well as better on-farm water management practices can provide opportunities for improving water productivity.

Stochastic resource allocation in emergency departments with a multi-objective simulation optimization algorithm.

PubMed

Feng, Yen-Yi; Wu, I-Chin; Chen, Tzu-Li

2017-03-01

The number of emergency cases or emergency room visits rapidly increases annually, thus leading to an imbalance in supply and demand and to the long-term overcrowding of hospital emergency departments (EDs). However, current solutions to increase medical resources and improve the handling of patient needs are either impractical or infeasible in the Taiwanese environment. Therefore, EDs must optimize resource allocation given limited medical resources to minimize the average length of stay of patients and medical resource waste costs. This study constructs a multi-objective mathematical model for medical resource allocation in EDs in accordance with emergency flow or procedure. The proposed mathematical model is complex and difficult to solve because its performance value is stochastic; furthermore, the model considers both objectives simultaneously. Thus, this study develops a multi-objective simulation optimization algorithm by integrating a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) with multi-objective computing budget allocation (MOCBA) to address the challenges of multi-objective medical resource allocation. NSGA II is used to investigate plausible solutions for medical resource allocation, and MOCBA identifies effective sets of feasible Pareto (non-dominated) medical resource allocation solutions in addition to effectively allocating simulation or computation budgets. The discrete event simulation model of ED flow is inspired by a Taiwan hospital case and is constructed to estimate the expected performance values of each medical allocation solution as obtained through NSGA II. Finally, computational experiments are performed to verify the effectiveness and performance of the integrated NSGA II and MOCBA method, as well as to derive non-dominated medical resource allocation solutions from the algorithms.

Economic potential of market-oriented water storage decisions: Evidence from Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brennan, Donna

2010-08-01

Significant reforms made to Australian irrigation property rights in recent years have enabled the development of an active seasonal water market. In contrast, decisions regarding the allocation of water across time are typically based on central decisions, with little or no opportunity offered to irrigators to manage risk by physically transferring their water access right between years by leaving it in the public dam. An empirical examination of the economics of water storage is presented using a case study of the Goulburn Valley, a major irrigation region in the state of Victoria. It is shown that, compared to the historically used, centrally determined storage policy, a market-based storage policy would store more water, on average, and would also allocate more water in periods of low rainfall. The analysis indicates that the costs associated with a recent prolonged drought were $100 million more than they would have been if water storage decisions had been guided by the market and prices were 3 times higher.

Peatland simulator connecting drainage, nutrient cycling, forest growth, economy and GHG efflux in boreal and tropical peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauren, Ari; Hökkä, Hannu; Launiainen, Samuli; Palviainen, Marjo; Lehtonen, Aleksi

2016-04-01

Forest growth in peatlands is nutrient limited; principal source of nutrients is the decomposition of organic matter. Excess water decreases O2 diffusion and slows down the nutrient release. Drainage increases organic matter decomposition, CO2 efflux, and nutrient supply, and enhances the growth of forest. Profitability depends on costs, gained extra yield and its allocation into timber assortments, and the rate of interest. We built peatland simulator Susi to define and parameterize these interrelations. We applied Susi-simulator to compute water and nutrient processes, forest growth, and CO2 efflux of forested drained peatland. The simulator computes daily water fluxes and storages in two dimensions for a peatland forest strip located between drainage ditches. The CO2 efflux is made proportional to peat bulk density, soil temperature and O2 availability. Nutrient (N, P, K) release depends on decomposition and peat nutrient content. Growth limiting nutrient is detected by comparing the need and supply of nutrients. Increased supply of growth limiting nutrient is used to quantify the forest growth response to improved drainage. The extra yield is allocated into pulpwood and sawlogs based on volume of growing stock. The net present values of ditch cleaning operation and the gained extra yield are computed under different rates of interest to assess the profitability of the ditch cleaning. The hydrological sub-models of Susi-simulator were first parameterized using daily water flux data from Hyytiälä SMEAR II-site, after which the predictions were tested against independent hydrologic data from two drained peatland forests in Southern Finland. After verification of the hydrologic model, the CO2 efflux, nutrient release and forest growth proportionality hypothesis was tested and model performance validated against long-term forest growth and groundwater level data from 69 forested peatland sample plots in Central Finland. The results showed a clear relation between the stand growth, nutrient availability, and CO2 efflux. Potassium was the main limiting factor for the forest growth. This indicates that management aiming at decreasing heterotrophic CO2 efflux by raising the ground water table will decrease the forest growth. From the C balance perspective the growth rate of the tree stand becomes essential. Modelling approach enables a search for an optimal management schedule for producing timber in situation when there is a price given for release of C. Ditch network maintenance by ditch cleaning becomes profitable if: i) the initial drainage is very poor, ii) the availability of the critical nutrient is sufficient, iii) during prolonged rainy conditions, and iv) the tree stand is Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) dominated and v) in a phase where most of the extra yield is allocated into sawlogs. The simulator and its holistic approach has been successfully implemented in both tropical pulpwood plantations in Sumatra, Indonesia and in Finnish boreal forests.

Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the draft report, Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) for a 30-day public comment period. The ICLUS version 2 (v2) modeling tool furthered land change modeling by providing nationwide housing development scenarios up to 2100. ICLUS V2 includes updated population and land use data sets and addressing limitations identified in ICLUS v1 in both the migration and spatial allocation models. The companion user guide describes the development of ICLUS v2 and the updates that were made to the original data sets and the demographic and spatial allocation models. [2017 UPDATE] Get the latest version of ICLUS and stay up-to-date by signing up to the ICLUS mailing list. The GIS tool enables users to run SERGoM with the population projections developed for the ICLUS project and allows users to modify the spatial allocation housing density across the landscape.

Numerical Simulation of Regional Changes in Ground-Water Levels and in the Freshwater-Saltwater Interface Induced by Increased Pumpage at Barbers Point Shaft, Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Souza, William R.; Meyer, William

1995-01-01

The effect on the regional ground-water system of southern Oahu from increased pumpage at Barbers Point shaft was estimated by a numerical ground-water model developed for the Oahu Regional Aquifer Systems Analysis (RASA) study. The RASA model was updated by revising pumping and ground-water recharge data. Pumpage data used in the new simulations were based on the allocated pumping rates for 1995 as set by the State Commission on Water Resource Management. On the basis of numerical simulation, Barbers Point shaft can sustain a withdrawal rate of 4.34 million gallons per day without adversely affecting wells in the Waianae aquifer. From results of numerical simulations, it is estimated that, as a result of increasing pumpage in Barbers Point shaft by 2 million gallons per day above the 1995-allocated rate of 2.337 million gallons per day, regional declines in ground-water levels will be about 0.4 to 0.7 feet throughout the Waianae aquifer and about 0.8 ft at the shaft. The corresponding rise of the freshwater-saltwater interface, as a result of declines in ground-water levels, is estimated to be about 20 to 30 feet. Numerical simulation also indicates that changes in ground-water levels greater than about 0.1 feet do not extend across either the Waianae-Koolau unconformity or the south Schofield barrier. The model-estimated position of the freshwater-saltwater interface, as a result of additional pumpage, ranges from 500 to 860 feet below sea level in the southern and northern parts of the aquifer, respectively, and about 540 feet below sea level at the shaft. On the basis of an estimate of the thickness of the transition-zone, the freshwater lens would remain about 240 feet thick below the shaft. In addition, the estimated declines in ground-water levels throughout the aquifer are small compared with the thickness of the freshwater lens and these declines would not be expected to affect the yields of other wells in terms of quantity. Chloride concentrations in the water pumped at Barbers Point shaft were about 240 milligrams per liter in 1992. The estimated background chloride concentration is 200 to 220 milligrams per liter because of low rainfall and the contamination of recharge water from natural salt accumulation in the soil. A reduction in irrigation through 1995 is expected to reduce recharge to the aquifer from irrigation-return water and chloride concentrations associated with the irrigation water throughout the Waianae aquifer. As a result of these combined effects, chloride concentrations of water pumped from the Barbers Point shaft will likely decrease, although the length of time required for this lowering is unknown.

Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM), A Tool For Numerically Simulating Linked Groundwater, Surface Water And Land-Surface Hydrologic Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogrul, E. C.; Brush, C. F.; Kadir, T. N.

2006-12-01

The Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) is a comprehensive input-driven application for simulating groundwater flow, surface water flow and land-surface hydrologic processes, and interactions between these processes, developed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR). IWFM couples a 3-D finite element groundwater flow process and 1-D land surface, lake, stream flow and vertical unsaturated-zone flow processes which are solved simultaneously at each time step. The groundwater flow system is simulated as a multilayer aquifer system with a mixture of confined and unconfined aquifers separated by semiconfining layers. The groundwater flow process can simulate changing aquifer conditions (confined to unconfined and vice versa), subsidence, tile drains, injection wells and pumping wells. The land surface process calculates elemental water budgets for agricultural, urban, riparian and native vegetation classes. Crop water demands are dynamically calculated using distributed soil properties, land use and crop data, and precipitation and evapotranspiration rates. The crop mix can also be automatically modified as a function of pumping lift using logit functions. Surface water diversions and groundwater pumping can each be specified, or can be automatically adjusted at run time to balance water supply with water demand. The land-surface process also routes runoff to streams and deep percolation to the unsaturated zone. Surface water networks are specified as a series of stream nodes (coincident with groundwater nodes) with specified bed elevation, conductance and stage-flow relationships. Stream nodes are linked to form stream reaches. Stream inflows at the model boundary, surface water diversion locations, and one or more surface water deliveries per location are specified. IWFM routes stream flows through the network, calculating groundwater-surface water interactions, accumulating inflows from runoff, and allocating available stream flows to meet specified or calculated deliveries. IWFM utilizes a very straight-forward input file structure, allowing rapid development of complex simulations. A key feature of IWFM is a new algorithm for computation of groundwater flow across element faces. Enhancements to version 3.0 include automatic time-tracking of input and output data sets, linkage with the HEC-DSS database, and dynamic crop allocation using logit functions. Utilities linking IWFM to the PEST automated calibration suite are also available. All source code, executables and documentation are available for download from the DWR web site. IWFM is currently being used to develop hydrologic simulations of California's Central Valley (C2VSIM); the west side of California's San Joaquin Valley (WESTSIM); Butte County, CA; Solano County, CA; Merced County, CA; and the Oregon side of the Walla Walla River Basin.

77 FR 67665 - Draft Environmental Impact Statement and Notice of Scoping Meeting for the Proposed 20-Year...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-13

... the amount of water for farming activities but would continue to replace water allocated for other... management practices, impacts to environmental resources such as surface water, groundwater levels, land...

Biomass Allocation Patterns Are Linked to Genotypic Differences in Whole-Plant Transpiration Efficiency in Sunflower

PubMed Central

Velázquez, Luciano; Alberdi, Ignacio; Paz, Cosme; Aguirrezábal, Luis

2017-01-01

Increased transpiration efficiency (the ratio of biomass to water transpired, TE) could lead to increased drought tolerance under some water deficit scenarios. Intrinsic (i.e., leaf-level) TE is usually considered as the primary source of variation in whole-plant TE, but empirical data usually contradict this assumption. Sunflower has a significant variability in TE, but a better knowledge of the effect of leaf and plant-level traits could be helpful to obtain more efficient genotypes for water use. The objective of this study was, therefore, to assess if genotypic variation in whole-plant TE is better related to leaf- or plant-level traits. Three experiments were conducted, aimed at verifying the existence of variability in whole-plant TE and whole-plant and leaf-level traits, and to assess their correlation. Sunflower public inbred lines and a segregating population of recombinant inbred lines were grown under controlled conditions and subjected to well-watered and water-deficit treatments. Significant genotypic variation was found for TE and related traits. These differences in whole-plant transpiration efficiency, both between genotypes and between plants within each genotype, showed no association to leaf-level traits, but were significantly and negatively correlated to biomass allocation to leaves and to the ratio of leaf area to total biomass. These associations are likely of a physiological origin, and not only a consequence of genetic linkage in the studied population. These results suggest that genotypic variation for biomass allocation could be potentially exploited as a source for increased transpiration efficiency in sunflower breeding programmes. It is also suggested that phenotyping for TE in this species should not be restricted to leaf-level measurements, but also include measurements of plant-level traits, especially those related to biomass allocation between photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic organs. PMID:29204153

Biomass Allocation Patterns Are Linked to Genotypic Differences in Whole-Plant Transpiration Efficiency in Sunflower.

PubMed

Velázquez, Luciano; Alberdi, Ignacio; Paz, Cosme; Aguirrezábal, Luis; Pereyra Irujo, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Increased transpiration efficiency (the ratio of biomass to water transpired, TE) could lead to increased drought tolerance under some water deficit scenarios. Intrinsic (i.e., leaf-level) TE is usually considered as the primary source of variation in whole-plant TE, but empirical data usually contradict this assumption. Sunflower has a significant variability in TE, but a better knowledge of the effect of leaf and plant-level traits could be helpful to obtain more efficient genotypes for water use. The objective of this study was, therefore, to assess if genotypic variation in whole-plant TE is better related to leaf- or plant-level traits. Three experiments were conducted, aimed at verifying the existence of variability in whole-plant TE and whole-plant and leaf-level traits, and to assess their correlation. Sunflower public inbred lines and a segregating population of recombinant inbred lines were grown under controlled conditions and subjected to well-watered and water-deficit treatments. Significant genotypic variation was found for TE and related traits. These differences in whole-plant transpiration efficiency, both between genotypes and between plants within each genotype, showed no association to leaf-level traits, but were significantly and negatively correlated to biomass allocation to leaves and to the ratio of leaf area to total biomass. These associations are likely of a physiological origin, and not only a consequence of genetic linkage in the studied population. These results suggest that genotypic variation for biomass allocation could be potentially exploited as a source for increased transpiration efficiency in sunflower breeding programmes. It is also suggested that phenotyping for TE in this species should not be restricted to leaf-level measurements, but also include measurements of plant-level traits, especially those related to biomass allocation between photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic organs.

Preliminary Optimization for Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Environmental Flows in Lassen Foothill Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ta, J.; Kelsey, R.; Howard, J.; Hall, M.; Lund, J. R.; Viers, J. H.

2014-12-01

Stream flow controls physical and ecological processes in rivers that support freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity vital for services that humans depend on. This master variable has been impaired by human activities like dam operations, water diversions, and flood control infrastructure. Furthermore, increasing water scarcity due to rising water demands and droughts has further stressed these systems, calling for the need to find better ways to identify and allocate environmental flows. In this study, a linear optimization model was developed for environmental flows in river systems that have minimal or no regulation from dam operations, but still exhibit altered flow regimes due to surface water diversions and groundwater abstraction. Flow regime requirements for California Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) life history were used as a test case to examine how alterations to the timing and magnitude of water diversions meet environmental flow objectives while minimizing impact to local water supply. The model was then applied to Mill Creek, a tributary of the Sacramento River, in northern California, and its altered flow regime that currently impacts adult spring-run Chinook spawning and migration. The resulting optimized water diversion schedule can be used to inform water management decisions that aim to maximize benefit for the environment while meeting local water demands.

Twelve fundamental life histories evolving through allocation-dependent fecundity and survival.

PubMed

Johansson, Jacob; Brännström, Åke; Metz, Johan A J; Dieckmann, Ulf

2018-03-01

An organism's life history is closely interlinked with its allocation of energy between growth and reproduction at different life stages. Theoretical models have established that diminishing returns from reproductive investment promote strategies with simultaneous investment into growth and reproduction (indeterminate growth) over strategies with distinct phases of growth and reproduction (determinate growth). We extend this traditional, binary classification by showing that allocation-dependent fecundity and mortality rates allow for a large diversity of optimal allocation schedules. By analyzing a model of organisms that allocate energy between growth and reproduction, we find twelve types of optimal allocation schedules, differing qualitatively in how reproductive allocation increases with body mass. These twelve optimal allocation schedules include types with different combinations of continuous and discontinuous increase in reproduction allocation, in which phases of continuous increase can be decelerating or accelerating. We furthermore investigate how this variation influences growth curves and the expected maximum life span and body size. Our study thus reveals new links between eco-physiological constraints and life-history evolution and underscores how allocation-dependent fitness components may underlie biological diversity.

What variables should be considered in allocating Primary health care Pharmaceutical budgets to districts in Uganda?

PubMed

Mujasi, Paschal N; Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2015-01-01

A key policy question for the government of Uganda is how to equitably allocate primary health care pharmaceutical budgets to districts. This paper seeks to identify variables influencing current primary health care pharmaceutical expenditure and their usefulness in allocating prospective pharmaceutical budgets to districts. This was a cross sectional, retrospective observational study using secondary administrative data. We collected data on the value of pharmaceuticals procured by primary health care facilities in each district from National Medical Stores for the financial year 2011/2012. The dependent variable was expressed as per capita district pharmaceutical expenditure. By reviewing literature we identified 26 potential explanatory variables. They include supply, need and demand, and health system organization variables that may influence the demand and supply of health services and the corresponding pharmaceutical expenditure. We collected secondary data for these variables for all the districts in Uganda (n = 112). We performed econometric analysis to estimate parameters of various regression models. There is a significant correlation between per capita district pharmaceutical expenditure and total district population, rural poverty, access to drinking water and outpatient department (OPD) per capita utilisation.(P < 0.01). The percentage of health centre IIIs (HC III) among each district's health facilities is significantly correlated with per capita pharmaceutical expenditure (P < 0.05). OPD per capita utilisation has a relatively strong correlation with per capita pharmaceutical expenditure (r = 0.498); all the other significant factors are weakly correlated with per capita pharmaceutical expenditure (r < 0.5). From several iterations of an initially developed model, the proposed final model for explaining per capita pharmaceutical expenditure explains about 53% of the variation in pharmaceutical expenditure among districts in Uganda (Adjusted R(2) = 0.528). All variables in the model are significant (p < 0.01). From evaluation of the various models, proposed variables to consider in allocating prospective primary health care pharmaceutical budgets to districts in Uganda are: district outpatient department attendance per capita, total district population, total number of government health facilities in the district and the district human poverty index.

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 2: Applications and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

2008-07-01

To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately -11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to assessments of various global environmental projections such as climate change.

Evaluating Water Supply and Water Quality Management Options for Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, S.

2007-05-01

The ever increasing population in Las Vegas is generating huge demand for water supply on one hand and need for infrastructure to collect and treat the wastewater on the other hand. Current plans to address water demand include importing water from Muddy and Virgin Rivers and northern counties, desalination of seawater with trade- payoff in California, water banking in Arizona and California, and more intense water conservation efforts in the Las Vegas Valley (LVV). Water and wastewater in the LVV are intrinsically related because treated wastewater effluent is returned back to Lake Mead, the drinking water source for the Valley, to get a return credit thereby augmenting Nevada's water allocation from the Colorado River. The return of treated wastewater however, is a major contributor of nutrients and other yet unregulated pollutants to Lake Mead. Parameters that influence the quantity of water include growth of permanent and transient population (i.e., tourists), indoor and outdoor water use, wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, water conservation, and return flow credits. The water quality of Lake Mead and the Colorado River is affected by the level of treatment of wastewater, urban runoff, groundwater seepage, and a few industrial inputs. We developed an integrated simulation model, using system dynamics modeling approach, to account for both water quantity and quality in the LVV. The model captures the interrelationships among many variables that influence both, water quantity and water quality. The model provides a valuable tool for understanding past, present and future pathways of water and its constituents in the LVV. The model is calibrated and validated using the available data on water quantity (flows at water and wastewater treatment facilities and return water credit flow rates) and water quality parameters (TDS and phosphorus concentrations). We used the model to explore important questions: a)What would be the effect of the water transported from the northern counties on the water supply and water quality of Lake Mead? b)What would be the impact of increased reuse of wastewater on return credits? c)What would be the effect of treating runoff water on the load of nutrients to Lake Mead?

Just How Big is the Schism Between the Health Sector and the Water and Sanitation Sector in Developing Countries?

PubMed

Cronin, A A; Pond, K

2008-08-19

Water, sanitation and hygiene are all key aspects to a healthy environment but often they suffer from a lack of coherence within the sector itself and also a lack of synergy with the health sector. This is not acceptable given one quarter of all child deaths are directly attributable to water-borne disease. This lack of synergy is evident at many different layers including planning, resource allocation and donor commitment. Developing countries must, in consultation with their communities, examine their biggest health risks and allocate resources accordingly. Sustained dialogue and increased in-depth analysis are needed to find consensus and an improved synergy across these vital sectors.

Resource allocation for mitigating regional air pollution–related mortality: A summertime case study for five cities in the United States

PubMed Central

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Hou, Xiangting; Strickland, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT An important issue of regional air quality management is to allocate air quality management funds to maximize environmental and human health benefits. In this study, we use an innovative approach to tackle this air quality management issue. We develop an innovative resource allocation model that allows identification of air pollutant emission control strategies that maximize mortality avoidances subject to a resource constraint. We first present the development of the resource allocation model and then a case study to show how the model can be used to identify resource allocation strategies that maximize mortality avoidances for top five Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) (i.e., New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Philadelphia) in the continental United States collectively. Given budget constraints in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Air Act assessment, the results of the case study suggest that controls of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and primary carbon (PC) emissions from EPA Regions 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9 would have significant health benefits for the five selected cities collectively. Around 30,800 air pollution–related mortalities could be avoided during the selected 2-week summertime episode for the five cities collectively if the budget could be allocated based on the results of the resource allocation model. Although only five U.S. cities during a 2-week episode are considered in the case study, the resource allocation model can be used by decision-makers to plan air pollution mitigation strategies to achieve the most significant health benefits for other seasons and more cities over a region or the continental U.S.Implications: Effective allocations of air quality management resources are challenging and complicated, and it is desired to have a tool that can help decision-makers better allocate the funds to maximize health benefits of air pollution mitigation. An innovative resource allocation model developed in this study can help decision-makers identify the best resource allocation strategies for multiple cities collectively. The results of a case study suggest that controls of primary carbon and sulfur dioxides emissions would achieve the most significant health benefits for five selected cities collectively. PMID:27441782

Satellite-guided hydro-economic analysis for integrated management and prediction of the impact of droughts on agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.; Kimball, J. S.

2013-12-01

Agricultural activity can exacerbate or buffer the impact of climate variability, especially droughts, on the hydrologic and socioeconomic conditions of rural areas. Potential negative regional impacts of droughts include impoverishment of agricultural regions, deterioration or overuse of water resources, risk of monoculture, and regional dependence on external food markets. Policies that encourage adequate management practices in the face of adverse climatic events are critical to preserve rural livelihoods and to ensure a sustainable future for agriculture. Diagnosing and managing drought effects on agricultural production, on the social and natural environment, and on limited water resources, is highly complex and interdisciplinary. The challenges that decision-makers face to mitigate the impact of water shortage are social, agronomic, economic and environmental in nature and therefore must be approached from an integrated multidisciplinary point of view. Existing observation technologies, in conjunction with models and assimilation methods open the opportunity for novel interdisciplinary analysis tools to support policy and decision making. We present an integrated modeling and observation framework driven by satellite remote sensing and other ancillary information from regional monitoring networks to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, management decisions and socioeconomic policy. The core of this framework is a hydroeconomic model of agricultural production that assimilates remote sensing inputs to quantify the amount of land, water, fertilizer and labor farmers allocate for each crop they choose to grow on a seasonal basis in response to changing climatic conditions, including drought. A regional hydroclimatologic model provides biophysical constraints to an economic model of agricultural production based on a class of models referred to as positive mathematical programming (PMP). A recursive Bayesian update method is used to adjust the model parameters by assimilating information on crop acreage, production, and crop evapotranspiration estimated from high-spatial resolution satellite remote sensing. We are developing new land parameter records adapted for agricultural application by merging relatively fine scale, calibrated spectral reflectance time series with similar spectral information from coarser scale and more temporally continuous global satellite data records. These new products will be used to generate field scale estimates of LAI and FPAR, which will be used with regional surface meteorology and biophysical data to estimate crop production including C4 crop types. This integrated framework provides an operational means to monitor and forecast what crops will be grown and how farmers will allocate land, water and other agricultural resources under expected adverse conditions, and the resulting consequences for other water users. It will also permit evaluation of impacts of water policy and changes in food prices on rural community livelihoods. The Bayesian update framework constitutes an efficient method for the identification of the production function parameters and provides valuable information on the associated uncertainty of the forecasts.

Integrated hydrologic modeling of a transboundary aquifer system —Lower Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Knight, Jacob E.; Maddock, Thomas

2013-01-01

For more than 30 years the agreements developed for the aquifer systems of the lower Rio Grande and related river compacts of the Rio Grande River have evolved into a complex setting of transboundary conjunctive use. The conjunctive use now includes many facets of water rights, water use, and emerging demands between the states of New Mexico and Texas, the United States and Mexico, and various water-supply agencies. The analysis of the complex relations between irrigation and streamflow supplyand-demand components and the effects of surface-water and groundwater use requires an integrated hydrologic model to track all of the use and movement of water. MODFLOW with the Farm Process (MFFMP) provides the integrated approach needed to assess the stream-aquifer interactions that are dynamically affected by irrigation demands on streamflow allotments that are supplemented with groundwater pumpage. As a first step to the ongoing full implementation of MF-FMP by the USGS, the existing model (LRG_2007) was modified to include some FMP features, demonstrating the ability to simulate the existing streamflow-diversion relations known as the D2 and D3 curves, departure of downstream deliveries from these curves during low allocation years and with increasing efficiency upstream, and the dynamic relation between surface-water conveyance and estimates of pumpage and recharge. This new MF-FMP modeling framework can now internally analyze complex relations within the Lower Rio Grande Hydrologic Model (LRGHM_2011) that previous techniques had limited ability to assess.

Visibility vs. biomass in flowers: exploring corolla allocation in Mediterranean entomophilous plants.

PubMed

Herrera, Javier

2009-05-01

While pollinators may in general select for large, morphologically uniform floral phenotypes, drought stress has been proposed as a destabilizing force that may favour small flowers and/or promote floral variation within species. The general validity of this concept was checked by surveying a taxonomically diverse array of 38 insect-pollinated Mediterranean species. The interplay between fresh biomass investment, linear size and percentage corolla allocation was studied. Allometric relationships between traits were investigated by reduced major-axis regression, and qualitative correlates of floral variation explored using general linear-model MANOVA. Across species, flowers were perfectly isometrical with regard to corolla allocation (i.e. larger flowers were just scaled-up versions of smaller ones and vice versa). In contrast, linear size and biomass varied allometrically (i.e. there were shape variations, in addition to variations in size). Most floral variables correlated positively and significantly across species, except corolla allocation, which was largely determined by family membership and floral symmetry. On average, species with bilateral flowers allocated more to the corolla than those with radial flowers. Plant life-form was immaterial to all of the studied traits. Flower linear size variation was in general low among conspecifics (coefficients of variation around 10 %), whereas biomass was in general less uniform (e.g. 200-400 mg in Cistus salvifolius). Significant among-population differences were detected for all major quantitative floral traits. Flower miniaturization can allow an improved use of reproductive resources under prevailingly stressful conditions. The hypothesis that flower size reflects a compromise between pollinator attraction, water requirements and allometric constraints among floral parts is discussed.

Efficient Allocation of Resources for Defense of Spatially Distributed Networks Using Agent-Based Simulation.

PubMed

Kroshl, William M; Sarkani, Shahram; Mazzuchi, Thomas A

2015-09-01

This article presents ongoing research that focuses on efficient allocation of defense resources to minimize the damage inflicted on a spatially distributed physical network such as a pipeline, water system, or power distribution system from an attack by an active adversary, recognizing the fundamental difference between preparing for natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or even accidental systems failures and the problem of allocating resources to defend against an opponent who is aware of, and anticipating, the defender's efforts to mitigate the threat. Our approach is to utilize a combination of integer programming and agent-based modeling to allocate the defensive resources. We conceptualize the problem as a Stackelberg "leader follower" game where the defender first places his assets to defend key areas of the network, and the attacker then seeks to inflict the maximum damage possible within the constraints of resources and network structure. The criticality of arcs in the network is estimated by a deterministic network interdiction formulation, which then informs an evolutionary agent-based simulation. The evolutionary agent-based simulation is used to determine the allocation of resources for attackers and defenders that results in evolutionary stable strategies, where actions by either side alone cannot increase its share of victories. We demonstrate these techniques on an example network, comparing the evolutionary agent-based results to a more traditional, probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach. Our results show that the agent-based approach results in a greater percentage of defender victories than does the PRA-based approach. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Model-Data Intercomparison of Carbon Fluxes, Pools, and LAI in the Community Land Model (CLM) and Alternative Carbon Allocation Schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montane, F.; Fox, A. M.; Arellano, A. F.; Alexander, M. R.; Moore, D. J.

2016-12-01

Carbon (C) allocation to different plant tissues (leaves, stem and roots) remains a central challenge for understanding the global C cycle, as it determines C residence time. We used a diverse set of observations (AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers, biomass estimates from tree-ring data, and Leaf Area Index measurements) to compare C fluxes, pools, and Leaf Area Index (LAI) data with the Community Land Model (CLM). We ran CLM for seven temperate forests in North America (including evergreen and deciduous sites) between 1980 and 2013 using different C allocation schemes: i) standard C allocation scheme in CLM, which allocates C to the stem and leaves as a dynamic function of annual net primary productivity (NPP); ii) two fixed C allocation schemes, one representative of evergreen and the other one of deciduous forests, based on Luyssaert et al. 2007; iii) an alternative C allocation scheme, which allocated C to stem and leaves, and to stem and coarse roots, as a dynamic function of annual NPP, based on Litton et al. 2007. At our sites CLM usually overestimated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration, and underestimated net ecosystem exchange. Initial aboveground biomass in 1980 was largely overestimated for deciduous forests, whereas aboveground biomass accumulation between 1980 and 2011 was highly underestimated for both evergreen and deciduous sites due to the lower turnover rate in the sites than the one used in the model. CLM overestimated LAI in both evergreen and deciduous sites because the Leaf C-LAI relationship in the model did not match the observed Leaf C-LAI relationship in our sites. Although the different C allocation schemes gave similar results for aggregated C fluxes, they translated to important differences in long-term aboveground biomass accumulation and aboveground NPP. For deciduous forests, one of the alternative C allocation schemes used (iii) gave more realistic stem C/leaf C ratios, and highly reduced the overestimation of initial aboveground biomass, and accumulated aboveground NPP for deciduous forests by CLM. Our results would suggest using different C allocation schemes for evergreen and deciduous forests. It is crucial to improve CLM in the near future to minimize data-model mismatches, and to address some of the current model structural errors and parameter uncertainties.

Cumulative deficit irrigation effects on corn (Zea mays, L.) biomass and grain yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Deficit irrigation (DI) is sometimes used to cope with dwindling irrigation water supplies or limited water allocations. A six-year study at Akron, Colorado investigated the effects of consecutive years of DI on soil water use, soil water storage, biomass production, grain yield and water use effici...

Allometric growth and allocation in forests: a perspective from FLUXNET.

PubMed

Wolf, Adam; Field, Christopher B; Berry, Joseph A

2011-07-01

To develop a scheme for partitioning the products of photosynthesis toward different biomass components in land-surface models, a database on component mass and net primary productivity (NPP), collected from FLUXNET sites, was examined to determine allometric patterns of allocation. We found that NPP per individual of foliage (Gfol), stem and branches (Gstem), coarse roots (Gcroot) and fine roots (Gfroot) in individual trees is largely explained (r2 = 67-91%) by the magnitude of total NPP per individual (G). Gfol scales with G isometrically, meaning it is a fixed fraction of G ( 25%). Root-shoot trade-offs were manifest as a slow decline in Gfroot, as a fraction of G, from 50% to 25% as stands increased in biomass, with Gstem and Gcroot increasing as a consequence. These results indicate that a functional trade-off between aboveground and belowground allocation is essentially captured by variations in G, which itself is largely governed by stand biomass and only secondarily by site-specific resource availability. We argue that forests are characterized by strong competition for light, observed as a race for individual trees to ascend by increasing partitioning toward wood, rather than by growing more leaves, and that this competition stronglyconstrains the allocational plasticity that trees may be capable of. The residual variation in partitioning was not related to climatic or edaphic factors, nor did plots with nutrient or water additions show a pattern of partitioning distinct from that predicted by G alone. These findings leverage short-term process studies of the terrestrial carbon cycle to improve decade-scale predictions of biomass accumulation in forests. An algorithm for calculating partitioning in land-surface models is presented.

Analysis on the adaptive countermeasures to ecological management under changing environment in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Fan; Xue, Lianqing; Zhang, Luochen; Chen, Xinfang; Chi, Yixia

2017-12-01

This article aims to explore the adaptive utilization strategies of flow regime versus traditional practices in the context of climate change and human activities in the arid area. The study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Budyko method and adaptive utilization strategies to eco-hydrological regime by comparing the applicability between autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) model and combined regression model. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in streamflow deduction in the mainstream with contribution of 120.7%~190.1%. While in the headstreams, climatic variables were the primary determinant of streamflow by 56.5~152.6% of the increase. The comparison revealed that combined regression model performed better than ARMA model with the qualified rate of 80.49~90.24%. Based on the forecasts of streamflow for different purposes, the adaptive utilization scheme of water flow is established from the perspective of time and space. Our study presents an effective water resources scheduling scheme for the ecological environment and provides references for ecological protection and water allocation in the arid area.

Water Security and Farming Systems: Implications for Advisory Practice and Policy-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nettle, Ruth; Paine, Mark

2009-01-01

Water issues are a feature of public debate in Australia. The increasing privatisation of water and changes to water allocation systems are resulting in change, often referred to as water "wars" (de Villiers, 1999). The Australian dairy industry uses 25% of the surface irrigation water in Australia. How does a rural industry like…

Modeling the Gila-San Francisco Basin using system dynamics in support of the 2004 Arizona Water Settlement Act.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Sun, Amy Cha-Tien; Peplinski, William J.

2012-04-01

Water resource management requires collaborative solutions that cross institutional and political boundaries. This work describes the development and use of a computer-based tool for assessing the impact of additional water allocation from the Gila River and the San Francisco River prescribed in the 2004 Arizona Water Settlements Act. Between 2005 and 2010, Sandia National Laboratories engaged concerned citizens, local water stakeholders, and key federal and state agencies to collaboratively create the Gila-San Francisco Decision Support Tool. Based on principles of system dynamics, the tool is founded on a hydrologic balance of surface water, groundwater, and their associated coupling between watermore » resources and demands. The tool is fitted with a user interface to facilitate sensitivity studies of various water supply and demand scenarios. The model also projects the consumptive use of water in the region as well as the potential CUFA (Consumptive Use and Forbearance Agreement which stipulates when and where Arizona Water Settlements Act diversions can be made) diversion over a 26-year horizon. Scenarios are selected to enhance our understanding of the potential human impacts on the rivers ecological health in New Mexico; in particular, different case studies thematic to water conservation, water rights, and minimum flow are tested using the model. The impact on potential CUFA diversions, agricultural consumptive use, and surface water availability are assessed relative to the changes imposed in the scenarios. While it has been difficult to gage the acceptance level from the stakeholders, the technical information that the model provides are valuable for facilitating dialogues in the context of the new settlement.« less

REDRAW-Based Evapotranspiration Estimation in Chongli, North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the key component of hydrological cycle and spatial estimates of ET are important elements of atmospheric circulation and hydrologic models. Quantifying the ET over large region is significant for water resources planning, hydrologic water balances, water rights management, and water division. In this study, Evapotranspiration (ET) was estimated using REDRAW model in the Chongli on 2014. REDRAW is a satellite-based balance algorithm with reference dry and wet limits model developed to estimate ET. Remote sensing data obtained from MODIS and meteorological data from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System were used in ET model. In order to analyze the distribution and time variation of ET over the study region, daily, monthly and yearly ET were calculated for the study area, and ET of different land cover types were calculated. In terms of the monthly ET, the figure was low in winter and high in other seasons, and reaches the maximum value in August, showing a high monthly difference. The ET value of water body was the highest and that of barren or sparse vegetation were the lowest, which accorded with local actual condition. Evaluating spatial temporal distribution of actual ET could assist to understand the water consumption regularity in region and figure out the effect from different land cover, which helped to establish links between land use, water allocation, and water use planning in study region. Due to the groundwater recession in north China, the evaluation of regional total water resources become increasingly essential, and the result of this study can be used to plan the water use. As the Chongli will prepare the ski slopes for Winter Olympics on 2022, accuracy estimation of actual ET can efficiently resolve water conflict and relieve water scarcity.

Performance Evaluation Model for Application Layer Firewalls.

PubMed

Xuan, Shichang; Yang, Wu; Dong, Hui; Zhang, Jiangchuan

2016-01-01

Application layer firewalls protect the trusted area network against information security risks. However, firewall performance may affect user experience. Therefore, performance analysis plays a significant role in the evaluation of application layer firewalls. This paper presents an analytic model of the application layer firewall, based on a system analysis to evaluate the capability of the firewall. In order to enable users to improve the performance of the application layer firewall with limited resources, resource allocation was evaluated to obtain the optimal resource allocation scheme in terms of throughput, delay, and packet loss rate. The proposed model employs the Erlangian queuing model to analyze the performance parameters of the system with regard to the three layers (network, transport, and application layers). Then, the analysis results of all the layers are combined to obtain the overall system performance indicators. A discrete event simulation method was used to evaluate the proposed model. Finally, limited service desk resources were allocated to obtain the values of the performance indicators under different resource allocation scenarios in order to determine the optimal allocation scheme. Under limited resource allocation, this scheme enables users to maximize the performance of the application layer firewall.

Improved water resource management using three dimensional groundwater modelling for a highly complex environmental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

2017-04-01

Proper allocation and management of groundwater is an important and critical challenge under rising water demands of various environmental sectors but good groundwater quality is often limited because of urbanization and contamination of aquifers. Given the predictive capability of groundwater models, they are often the only viable means of providing input to water management decisions. However, modelling flow and transport processes can be difficult due to their unknown subsurface heterogeneity and typically unknown distribution of contaminants. As a result water resource management tasks are based on uncertain assumption on contaminants patterns and this uncertainty is typically not incorporated into the assessment of risks associated with different proposed management scenarios. A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area, where drinking water production is close to different former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water into the gravel aquifer is used to create a hydraulic barrier between contaminated sites and drinking water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction and magnitude between existing observation points using a newly developed three point estimation method for a large amount of scenarios was carried out. Due to the numerous observation points 32 triangles (three-points) were created which cover the entire area around the Hardwald. We demonstrated that systematically applying our developed methodology helps to identify important locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions and where additional protection is required without highly computational demanding transport modelling. The presented integrated approach using the flow direction between observation points can be easily transferred to a variety of hydrological settings to evaluate systematically groundwater modelling scenarios.

An improved risk-explicit interval linear programming model for pollution load allocation for watershed management.

PubMed

Xia, Bisheng; Qian, Xin; Yao, Hong

2017-11-01

Although the risk-explicit interval linear programming (REILP) model has solved the problem of having interval solutions, it has an equity problem, which can lead to unbalanced allocation between different decision variables. Therefore, an improved REILP model is proposed. This model adds an equity objective function and three constraint conditions to overcome this equity problem. In this case, pollution reduction is in proportion to pollutant load, which supports balanced development between different regional economies. The model is used to solve the problem of pollution load allocation in a small transboundary watershed. Compared with the REILP original model result, our model achieves equity between the upstream and downstream pollutant loads; it also overcomes the problem of greatest pollution reduction, where sources are nearest to the control section. The model provides a better solution to the problem of pollution load allocation than previous versions.

Integration of Palmer Drought Severity Index and remote sensing data to simulate wetland water surface from 1910 to 2009 in Cottonwood Lake area, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huang, Shengli; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia; Chander, Gyanesh; Liu, Shuguang

2011-01-01

Spatiotemporal variations of wetland water in the Prairie Pothole Region are controlled by many factors; two of them are temperature and precipitation that form the basis of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Taking the 196 km2 Cottonwood Lake area in North Dakota as our pilot study site, we integrated PDSI, Landsat images, and aerial photography records to simulate monthly water surface. First, we developed a new Wetland Water Area Index (WWAI) from PDSI to predict water surface area. Second, we developed a water allocation model to simulate the spatial distribution of water bodies at a resolution of 30 m. Third, we used an additional procedure to model the small wetlands (less than 0.8 ha) that could not be detected by Landsat. Our results showed that i) WWAI was highly correlated with water area with an R2 of 0.90, resulting in a simple regression prediction of monthly water area to capture the intra- and inter-annual water change from 1910 to 2009; ii) the spatial distribution of water bodies modeled from our approach agreed well with the water locations visually identified from the aerial photography records; and iii) the R2 between our modeled water bodies (including both large and small wetlands) and those from aerial photography records could be up to 0.83 with a mean average error of 0.64 km2 within the study area where the modeled wetland water areas ranged from about 2 to 14 km2. These results indicate that our approach holds great potential to simulate major changes in wetland water surface for ecosystem service; however, our products could capture neither the short-term water change caused by intensive rainstorm events nor the wetland change caused by human activities.

33 CFR 385.27 - Project Cooperation Agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... to water reservations. Reservations or allocations of water are a State responsibility. Any change to... public to review and comment on any proposed changes in the water reservation made by the State. (2) The... with the non-Federal sponsor in accordance with applicable law. (b) Verification of water reservations...

33 CFR 385.27 - Project Cooperation Agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... to water reservations. Reservations or allocations of water are a State responsibility. Any change to... public to review and comment on any proposed changes in the water reservation made by the State. (2) The... with the non-Federal sponsor in accordance with applicable law. (b) Verification of water reservations...

33 CFR 385.27 - Project Cooperation Agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... to water reservations. Reservations or allocations of water are a State responsibility. Any change to... public to review and comment on any proposed changes in the water reservation made by the State. (2) The... with the non-Federal sponsor in accordance with applicable law. (b) Verification of water reservations...

33 CFR 385.27 - Project Cooperation Agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... to water reservations. Reservations or allocations of water are a State responsibility. Any change to... public to review and comment on any proposed changes in the water reservation made by the State. (2) The... with the non-Federal sponsor in accordance with applicable law. (b) Verification of water reservations...

33 CFR 385.27 - Project Cooperation Agreements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... to water reservations. Reservations or allocations of water are a State responsibility. Any change to... public to review and comment on any proposed changes in the water reservation made by the State. (2) The... with the non-Federal sponsor in accordance with applicable law. (b) Verification of water reservations...

Scientific Allocation of Water Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buras, Nathan

Oriented for higher education students, researchers, practicing engineers and planners, this book surveys the state of the art of water resources engineering. A broad spectrum of issues is embraced in the treatment of water resources: quantity aspects as well as quality aspects within a systems approach. Using a rational mode for water resources…

40 CFR 130.4 - Water quality monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT § 130.4 Water quality monitoring. (a) In accordance with section 106(e)(1...; developing and reviewing water quality standards, total maximum daily loads, wasteload allocations and load... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Water quality monitoring. 130.4...

40 CFR 130.4 - Water quality monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... QUALITY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT § 130.4 Water quality monitoring. (a) In accordance with section 106(e)(1...; developing and reviewing water quality standards, total maximum daily loads, wasteload allocations and load... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Water quality monitoring. 130.4...

The Security Implications of Water: Prospects for Instability or Cooperation in South and Central Asia

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

water allocation has a tremendous effect on domestic stability. Especially in Pakistan where the Sindh and Balochistan provinces face multiple water...between the Southern Provinces (Sindh and Balochistan ) and the Punjab. Even within the United States, there are reoccurring tussles over fair water

Environmental control of reproductive phenology and the effect of pollen supplementation on resource allocation in the cleistogamous weed, Ruellia nudiflora (Acanthaceae)

PubMed Central

Munguía-Rosas, Miguel A.; Parra-Tabla, Victor; Ollerton, Jeff; Cervera, J. Carlos

2012-01-01

• Background and Aims Mixed reproductive strategies may have evolved as a response of plants to cope with environmental variation. One example of a mixed reproductive strategy is dimorphic cleistogamy, where a single plant produces closed, obligately self-pollinated (CL) flowers and open, potentially outcrossed (CH) flowers. Frequently, optimal environmental conditions favour production of more costly CH structures whilst economical and reliable CL structures are produced under less favourable conditions. In this study we explore (1) the effect of light and water on the reproductive phenology and (2) the effect of pollen supplementation on resource allocation to seeds in the cleistogamous weed Ruellia nudiflora. • Methods Split-plot field experiments were carried out to assess the effect of shade (two levels: ambient light vs. a reduction of 50 %) and watering (two levels: non-watered vs. watered) on the onset, end and duration of the production of three reproductive structures: CH flowers, CH fruit and CL fruit. We also looked at the effect of these environmental factors on biomass allocation to seeds (seed weight) from obligately self-pollinated flowers (CL), open-pollinated CH flowers and pollen-supplemented CH flowers. • Key Results CH structures were produced for a briefer period and ended earlier under shaded conditions. These conditions also resulted in an earlier production of CL fruit. Shaded conditions also produced greater biomass allocation to CH seeds receiving extra pollen. • Conclusions Sub-optimal (shaded) conditions resulted in a briefer production period of CH structures whilst these same conditions resulted in an earlier production of CL structures. However, under sub-optimal conditions, plants also allocated more resources to seeds sired from CH flowers receiving large pollen loads. Earlier production of reproductive structures and relatively larger seed might improve subsequent success of CL and pollen-supplemented CH seeds, respectively. PMID:22095920

S4HARA: System for HIV/AIDS resource allocation.

PubMed

Lasry, Arielle; Carter, Michael W; Zaric, Gregory S

2008-03-26

HIV/AIDS resource allocation decisions are influenced by political, social, ethical and other factors that are difficult to quantify. Consequently, quantitative models of HIV/AIDS resource allocation have had limited impact on actual spending decisions. We propose a decision-support System for HIV/AIDS Resource Allocation (S4HARA) that takes into consideration both principles of efficient resource allocation and the role of non-quantifiable influences on the decision-making process for resource allocation. S4HARA is a four-step spreadsheet-based model. The first step serves to identify the factors currently influencing HIV/AIDS allocation decisions. The second step consists of prioritizing HIV/AIDS interventions. The third step involves allocating the budget to the HIV/AIDS interventions using a rational approach. Decision-makers can select from several rational models of resource allocation depending on availability of data and level of complexity. The last step combines the results of the first and third steps to highlight the influencing factors that act as barriers or facilitators to the results suggested by the rational resource allocation approach. Actionable recommendations are then made to improve the allocation. We illustrate S4HARA in the context of a primary healthcare clinic in South Africa. The clinic offers six types of HIV/AIDS interventions and spends US$750,000 annually on these programs. Current allocation decisions are influenced by donors, NGOs and the government as well as by ethical and religious factors. Without additional funding, an optimal allocation of the total budget suggests that the portion allotted to condom distribution be increased from 1% to 15% and the portion allotted to prevention and treatment of opportunistic infections be increased from 43% to 71%, while allocation to other interventions should decrease. Condom uptake at the clinic should be increased by changing the condom distribution policy from a pull system to a push system. NGOs and donors promoting antiretroviral programs at the clinic should be sensitized to the results of the model and urged to invest in wellness programs aimed at the prevention and treatment of opportunistic infections. S4HARA differentiates itself from other decision support tools by providing rational HIV/AIDS resource allocation capabilities as well as consideration of the realities facing authorities in their decision-making process.

42 CFR § 510.325 - Allocation of payments for services that straddle the episode.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2016-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.325 Allocation of payments for services... 42 Public Health 5 2016-10-01 2016-10-01 false Allocation of payments for services that straddle...

42 CFR § 510.325 - Allocation of payments for services that straddle the episode.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.325 Allocation of payments for services... 42 Public Health 5 2017-10-01 2017-10-01 false Allocation of payments for services that straddle...

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

Carbon limitation reveals allocation priority to defense compounds in peppermint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkelova, Lenka; Unsicker, Sybille; Forkel, Matthias; Huang, Jianbei; Trumbore, Susan; Hartmann, Henrik

2016-04-01

Studies of carbon partitioning during insect or pathogen infestation reveal high carbon investment into induced chemical defenses to deter the biotic agent (Baldwin, 1998). However, little is known how carbon investment into chemical defenses changes under abiotic stress such as drought. Drought forces plants to close their stomata to prevent water loss through transpiration while decreasing the amount of assimilated carbon. Furthermore drought hampers carbohydrates translocation due to declining plant hydration and reduced phloem functioning (McDowell, 2011; Hartmann et al., 2013; Sevanto, 2014). Hence long lasting drought can force plants into carbon starvation. The aim of our study was to disentangle carbon allocation priorities between growth, maintenance metabolism, storage and production of defense compounds under carbon limiting conditions using peppermint as our model plant. Drought is not the only method how to manipulate plant carbon metabolism and photosynthetic yield. Exposing plants to reduced [CO2] air is a promising tool simulating drought induced carbon limitation without affecting phloem functioning and so carbohydrate translocation (Hartmann et al., 2015). We exposed peppermint plants to drought (50% of the control irrigation) and to low [CO2] (progressive decrease from 350 ppm to 20 ppm) to disentangle hydraulic failure from carbon starvation effects on carbon allocation. Drought was applied as a cross-treatment yielding four treatments: watered and high [CO2] (W+CO2), drought and high [CO2] (D+CO2), water and low [CO2] (W-CO2), drought and low [CO2] (D-CO2). We analyzed the most abundant terpenoid defense compounds (α-Pinene, sabinene, myrcene, limonene, menthone, menthol and pulegone) and used continuous 13CO2 labelling to trace allocation pattern of new and old assimilated carbon in the four carbon sinks (structural biomass, water soluble sugars, starch and terpenoid defense compounds) in young expanding leaf tissue. This leaf tissue grew after the start of treatments and after the onset of the 13CO2 labelling. Under the control treatment (W+CO2) the relative proportion of new carbon in the four carbon sinks was very similar whereas under the three stress treatments (D+CO2, W-CO2, D-CO2) new carbon was preferentially invested into terpenoid defense compounds. This indicates that also under abiotic stress plants need to invest carbon into defense and so protect immature leaf tissue to secure long-term photosynthetic activity (Massad et al., 2014). Even though the concentration of water soluble sugars under both low [CO2] treatments dramatically dropped, concentration of terpenoid compounds correspondingly change only under the combination of drought and low [CO2] (D-CO2), which was the harshest treatment. Drought alone (D+CO2) caused high investment of old carbon and concentration increase of water soluble sugars as well as starch compared to other treatments. This carbohydrates increase could be explained by the use of water soluble sugars as osmoprotectants (Dichio et al.,2009) and by the fast growth decline as the main carbon sink (Muller et al., 2011).

Reallocation of water in the state of New Mexico based on cooperative game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhi Rad, M.

2011-12-01

Water allocation models often aim to maximize net benefits in the river basin based on the water rights, thus there is no motivation to use water efficiently by the users with lower marginal value for water. Water markets not only could help increase the net benefits over the basin but also will encourage the stakeholders to save the water and use it in transfer markets and increase their income. This issue can be viewed as a game in which stakeholders can play non-cooperatively and try to increase their own benefits using the amount of water assigned to them or they could cooperate and make coalitions in order to increase the total benefits in the coalition and the whole basin. The aim of this study is to reallocate the water based on cooperation among different stakeholders, namely agricultural, municipal and industrial and environmental, in the Upper Rio Grande river basin in the state of New Mexico in order to increase efficiency, sustainability and equity of water distribution in the basin using different game theory schemes such as Nucleolus and the Shapley Value.

A sub-canopy structure for simulating oil palm in the Community Land Model (CLM-Palm): phenology, allocation and yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y.; Roupsard, O.; Bernoux, M.; Le Maire, G.; Panferov, O.; Kotowska, M. M.; Knohl, A.

2015-11-01

In order to quantify the effects of forests to oil palm conversion occurring in the tropics on land-atmosphere carbon, water and energy fluxes, we develop a new perennial crop sub-model CLM-Palm for simulating a palm plant functional type (PFT) within the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). CLM-Palm is tested here on oil palm only but is meant of generic interest for other palm crops (e.g., coconut). The oil palm has monopodial morphology and sequential phenology of around 40 stacked phytomers, each carrying a large leaf and a fruit bunch, forming a multilayer canopy. A sub-canopy phenological and physiological parameterization is thus introduced so that each phytomer has its own prognostic leaf growth and fruit yield capacity but with shared stem and root components. Phenology and carbon and nitrogen allocation operate on the different phytomers in parallel but at unsynchronized steps, separated by a thermal period. An important phenological phase is identified for the oil palm - the storage growth period of bud and "spear" leaves which are photosynthetically inactive before expansion. Agricultural practices such as transplanting, fertilization and leaf pruning are represented. Parameters introduced for the oil palm were calibrated and validated with field measurements of leaf area index (LAI), yield and net primary production (NPP) from Sumatra, Indonesia. In calibration with a mature oil palm plantation, the cumulative yields from 2005 to 2014 matched notably well between simulation and observation (mean percentage error = 3 %). Simulated inter-annual dynamics of PFT-level and phytomer-level LAI were both within the range of field measurements. Validation from eight independent oil palm sites shows the ability of the model to adequately predict the average leaf growth and fruit yield across sites and sufficiently represent the significant nitrogen- and age-related site-to-site variability in NPP and yield. Results also indicate that seasonal dynamics of yield and remaining small-scale site-to-site variability of NPP are driven by processes not yet implemented in the model or reflected in the input data. The new sub-canopy structure and phenology and allocation functions in CLM-Palm allow exploring the effects of tropical land-use change, from natural ecosystems to oil palm plantations, on carbon, water and energy cycles and regional climate.

A sub-canopy structure for simulating oil palm in the Community Land Model: phenology, allocation and yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y.; Roupsard, O.; Bernoux, M.; Le Maire, G.; Panferov, O.; Kotowska, M. M.; Knohl, A.

2015-06-01

Land surface modelling has been widely used to characterize the two-way interactions between climate and human activities in terrestrial ecosystems such as deforestation, agricultural expansion, and urbanization. Towards an effort to quantify the effects of forests to oil palm conversion occurring in the tropics on land-atmosphere carbon, water and energy fluxes, we introduce a new perennial crop plant functional type (PFT) for oil palm. Due to the modular and sequential nature of oil palm growth (around 40 stacked phytomers) and yield (fruit bunches axillated on each phytomer), we developed a specific sub-canopy structure for simulating palm's growth and yield within the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). In this structure each phytomer has its own prognostic leaf growth and fruit yield capacity like a PFT but with shared stem and root components among all phytomers. Phenology and carbon and nitrogen allocation operate on the different phytomers in parallel but at unsynchronized steps, so that multiple fruit yields per annum are enabled in terms of carbon and nitrogen outputs. An important phenological phase is identified for the palm PFT - the storage growth period of bud and "spear" leaves which are photosynthetically inactive before expansion. Agricultural practices such as transplanting, fertilization, and leaf pruning are represented. Parameters introduced for the new PFT were calibrated and validated with field measurements of leaf area index (LAI) and yield from Sumatra, Indonesia. In calibration with a mature oil palm plantation, the cumulative yields from 2005 to 2014 matched perfectly between simulation and observation (mean percentage error = 4 %). Simulated inter-annual dynamics of PFT-level and phytomer-level LAI were both within the range of field measurements. Validation from eight independent oil palm sites shows the ability of the model to adequately predict the average leaf growth and fruit yield across sites but also indicates that seasonal dynamics and site-to-site variability of yield are driven by processes not yet implemented in the model. The new sub-canopy structure and phenology and allocation functions now allow exploring the effects of tropical land use change, from natural ecosystems to oil palm plantations, on carbon, water and energy cycles and regional climate.

The development of water services and their interaction with water resources in European and Brazilian cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barraqué, B.; Formiga Johnsson, R. M.; Nogueira de Paiva Britto, A. L.

2008-08-01

The extension and complexity of large cities creates "urban water" and a related issue: public water services, including public water supply, sewage collection and treatment, and storm water control, had previously become a policy sector separate from water resource allocation issues thanks to water transport and treatment technologies. Large metropolitan areas today cannot take nature for granted anymore, and they need to protect water resources, if only to reduce the long term cost of transporting and treating water. In this paper, we compare the historical development of water services in European and Brazilian metropolitan areas, placing the technological developments in their geographic, socio-economic and political contexts. Our frame is to follow the successive contributions of civil engineering, sanitary engineering, and environmental engineering: the "quantity of water" and civil engineering paradigm allowed to mobilise water in and out of the city, and up the hills or the floors; in the "water quality" and chemical/sanitary engineering paradigm, water treatment gave more freedom to cities to take water from rivers closer to them, but also to reduce sewer discharge impacts; lastly, the environmental engineering paradigm proposes to overcome the supply side perspective, by introducing demand side management, water conservation, water allocation flexibilisation, and an integrated approach to water services, water resources management, and land use policies.

Forecasting of Seasonal Rainfall using ENSO and IOD teleconnection with Classification Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Silva, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

2017-12-01

Seasonal to annual forecasts of precipitation patterns are very important for water infrastructure management. In particular, such forecasts can be used to inform decisions about the operation of multipurpose reservoir systems in the face of changing climate conditions. Success in making useful forecasts often is achieved by considering climate teleconnections such as the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as related to sea surface temperature variations. We present an analysis to explore the utility of using rainfall relationships in Sri Lanka with ENSO and IOD to predict rainfall to the Mahaweli, river basin. Forecasting of rainfall as classes - above normal, normal, and below normal - can be useful for water resource management decision making. Quadratic discrimination analysis (QDA) and random forest models are used to identify the patterns of rainfall classes with respect to ENSO and IOD indices. These models can be used to forecast the likelihood of areal rainfall anomalies using predicted climate indices. Results can be used for decisions regarding allocation of water for agriculture and electricity generation within the Mahaweli project of Sri Lanka.

Limited static and dynamic delivering capacity allocations in scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddou, N. Ben; Ez-Zahraouy, H.; Rachadi, A.

In traffic networks, it is quite important to assign proper packet delivering capacities to the routers with minimum cost. In this respect, many allocation models based on static and dynamic properties have been proposed. In this paper, we are interested in the impact of limiting the packet delivering capacities already allocated to the routers; each node is assigned a packet delivering capacity limited by the maximal capacity Cmax of the routers. To study the limitation effect, we use two basic delivering capacity allocation models; static delivering capacity allocation (SDCA) and dynamic delivering capacity allocation (DDCA). In the SDCA, the capacity allocated is proportional to the node degree, and for DDCA, it is proportional to its queue length. We have studied and compared the limitation of both allocation models under the shortest path (SP) routing strategy as well as the efficient path (EP) routing protocol. In the SP case, we noted a similarity in the results; the network capacity increases with increasing Cmax. For the EP scheme, the network capacity stops increasing for relatively small packet delivering capability limit Cmax for both allocation strategies. However, it reaches high values under the limited DDCA before the saturation. We also find that in the DDCA case, the network capacity remains constant when the traffic information available to each router was updated after long period times τ.

Methods and tools to simulate the effect of economic instruments in complex water resources systems. Application to the Jucar river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2014-05-01

The main challenge of the BLUEPRINT to safeguard Europe's water resources (EC, 2012) is to guarantee that enough good quality water is available for people's needs, the economy and the environment. In this sense, economic policy instruments such as water pricing policies and water markets can be applied to enhance efficient use of water. This paper presents a method based on hydro-economic tools to assess the effect of economic instruments on water resource systems. Hydro-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure operation at the river basin scale, by simultaneously combining engineering, hydrologic and economic aspects of water resources management. The method made use of the simulation and optimization hydroeconomic tools SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water resources among the users according to priorities and operating rules, and evaluate economic scarcity costs of the system by using economic demand functions. The model's objective function is designed so that the system aims to meet the operational targets (ranked according to priorities) at each month while following the system operating rules. The optimization tool OPTIGAMS allocates water resources based on an economic efficiency criterion: maximize net benefits, or alternatively, minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on marginal resource opportunity costs (MROC; Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2013). Storage-dependent step pricing functions are derived from the time series of MROC values at a certain reservoir in the system. These water pricing policies are defined based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), so that when water storage is high, the MROC is low, while low storage (drought periods) will be associated to high MROC and therefore, high prices. We also illustrate the use of OPTIGAMS to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization, without considering the potential effect of transaction costs. These methods and tools have been applied to the Jucar River basin (Spain). The results show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536), SAWARES (Plan Nacional I+D+i 2008-2011, CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and C02-02), SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness; and EC 7th Framework Project ENHANCE (n. 308438) Reference: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Alvarez-Mendiola, E., and Andreu, J., 2013. Design of Efficient Water Pricing Policies Integrating Basinwide Resource Opportunity Costs. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 139(5): 583-592.

Climatic Change, Conflict and Peace in Transboundary River Basins - A Theoretical Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegfried, T. U.; Beck, L.; Koubi, V.; Bernauer, T.

2011-12-01

Recent research shows that one of the most significant risk for societal development pertains to water availability and that the greatest risks for unrest stemming from economic deprivation and the erosion of livelihoods is found in transboundary river basins in poor and politically unstable parts of the world. While until now, historic linkages between water scarcity and conflict were weak at best, there is growing fear that environmental change will increasingly lead to an entanglement of conflict and resources dynamics in the future. Where resources are not jointly managed in a cooperative way and resources sharing mechanisms not legislated by sound international institutions and were significant impacts from environmental change are expected, these developments give rise to concern. To study environmental change and conflict interlinkages, we develop a formal hydro-climatological model for transboundary freshwater resources and investigate theoretically how climate change translates into potential for conflict and peace, contingent on configurations of power between riparians. The model accounts for how upstream countries exercise power by using water whereas downstream countries use power to obtain water. We show that equilibrium water allocation outcomes are biased towards the more powerful riparian, and that absolute upstream or downstream river basin dominance are limiting cases of our general model. Our model suggests that the basin-wide conflict potential is always more sensitive to changes in relative power between riparian states than to impacts from climatic changes.

43 CFR 419.4 - What specific provisions govern operations of the reservoirs?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... water rights, imported water, remaining water of the Truckee River, and emergencies Sections 1.A through... Sections 4.A through 4.G. Operation of Floriston Rate and Project Water Sections 5.A through 5.E. Truckee River and Lake Tahoe Basin Allocation and Accounting Sections 6.A through 6.E. Credit Water...

43 CFR 419.4 - What specific provisions govern operations of the reservoirs?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... water rights, imported water, remaining water of the Truckee River, and emergencies Sections 1.A through... Sections 4.A through 4.G. Operation of Floriston Rate and Project Water Sections 5.A through 5.E. Truckee River and Lake Tahoe Basin Allocation and Accounting Sections 6.A through 6.E. Credit Water...

76 FR 12755 - Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and Hold Public Scoping...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-08

... terms and conditions regarding the constraints on availability of water supply for the CVP M&I water service contracts. Allocation of CVP water supplies for any given water year is based upon forecasted... requirements, and management of Section 3406(b)(2) resources and refuge water supplies in accordance with CVPIA...

Allocation model for air tanker initial attack in firefighting

Treesearch

Francis E. Greulich; William G. O' Regan

1975-01-01

Timely and appropriate use of air tankers in firefighting can bring high returns, but their misuse can be expensive when measured in operating and other costs. An allocation model has been developed for identifying superior strategies-for air tanker initial attack, and for choosing an optimum set of allocations among airbases. Data are presented for a representative...

Using Regression Analysis in Departmental Budget Allocations. IR Applications, Volume 24, November 1, 2009

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luna, Andrew L.; Brennan, Kelly A.

2009-01-01

This study uses a regression model to determine if a significant difference exists between the actual budget allocation that an academic department received and the model's predicted budget allocation for that same department. Budget data from a Southeastern Master's/Comprehensive state university were used as the dependent variable, and the…

Resource Allocation Based on Evaluation of Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fransson, Rune

1985-01-01

At Sweden's Karolinska Institute, a resource allocation model for medical research in use since 1970 allows the research activity of the different departments to affect resource allocation direclty. (MSE)

26 CFR 1.199-4 - Costs allocable to domestic production gross receipts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

..., natural gas, and potable water (as defined in § 1.199-3(l)) (collectively, utilities) that will generate... dollar-value pool contains QPP, qualified films, or utilities that produces DPGR and goods that do not, the taxpayer must allocate CGS attributable to that grouping or pool between DPGR and non-DPGR using a...

25 CFR 162.594 - How will payment rights relating to WSR leases be allocated?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false How will payment rights relating to WSR leases be allocated? 162.594 Section 162.594 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER LEASES AND PERMITS Wind and Solar Resource Leases Wsr Lease Effectiveness, Compliance, and...

25 CFR 162.594 - How will payment rights relating to WSR leases be allocated?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false How will payment rights relating to WSR leases be allocated? 162.594 Section 162.594 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER LEASES AND PERMITS Wind and Solar Resource Leases Wsr Lease Effectiveness, Compliance, and...

Emergency material allocation with time-varying supply-demand based on dynamic optimization method for river chemical spills.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Wang, Peng

2018-04-13

Aiming to minimize the damage caused by river chemical spills, efficient emergency material allocation is critical for an actual emergency rescue decision-making in a quick response. In this study, an emergency material allocation framework based on time-varying supply-demand constraint is developed to allocate emergency material, minimize the emergency response time, and satisfy the dynamic emergency material requirements in post-accident phases dealing with river chemical spills. In this study, the theoretically critical emergency response time is firstly obtained for the emergency material allocation system to select a series of appropriate emergency material warehouses as potential supportive centers. Then, an enumeration method is applied to identify the practically critical emergency response time, the optimum emergency material allocation and replenishment scheme. Finally, the developed framework is applied to a computational experiment based on south-to-north water transfer project in China. The results illustrate that the proposed methodology is a simple and flexible tool for appropriately allocating emergency material to satisfy time-dynamic demands during emergency decision-making. Therefore, the decision-makers can identify an appropriate emergency material allocation scheme in a balance between time-effective and cost-effective objectives under the different emergency pollution conditions.

Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: A case study of Tianjin city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X. H.; Zhang, H. W.; Chen, B.; Chen, G. Q.; Zhao, X. H.

2008-12-01

A complex system dynamic (SD) model focusing on water resources, termed as TianjinSD, is developed for the integrated and scientific management of the water resources of Tianjin, which contains information feedback that governs interactions in the system and is capable of synthesizing component-level knowledge into system behavior simulation at an integrated level, thus presenting reasonable predictive results for policy-making on water resources allocation and management. As for the Tianjin city, interactions among 96 components for 12 years are explored and four planning alternatives are chosen, one of which is based on the conventional mode assuming that the existing pattern of human activities will be prevailed, while the others are alternative planning designs based on the interaction of local authorities and planning researchers. Optimal mode is therefore obtained according to different scenarios when compared the simulation results for evaluation of different decisions and dynamic consequences.

A mathematical modeling approach to resource allocation for railroad-highway crossing safety upgrades.

PubMed

Konur, Dinçer; Golias, Mihalis M; Darks, Brandon

2013-03-01

State Departments of Transportation (S-DOT's) periodically allocate budget for safety upgrades at railroad-highway crossings. Efficient resource allocation is crucial for reducing accidents at railroad-highway crossings and increasing railroad as well as highway transportation safety. While a specific method is not restricted to S-DOT's, sorting type of procedures are recommended by the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), United States Department of Transportation for the resource allocation problem. In this study, a generic mathematical model is proposed for the resource allocation problem for railroad-highway crossing safety upgrades. The proposed approach is compared to sorting based methods for safety upgrades of public at-grade railroad-highway crossings in Tennessee. The comparison shows that the proposed mathematical modeling approach is more efficient than sorting methods in reducing accidents and severity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Irrigation of floricultural and nursery crops with saline wastewaters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water security has become a major concern throughout the western United States and other arid and semiarid regions worldwide. Uncertainties concerning the allocation and dependability of good quality water have led to increased interest in the use alternative, non-potable waters for irrigated agric...

Leaf-traits and growth allometry explain competition and differences in response to climatic change in a temperate forest landscape: a simulation study

PubMed Central

Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong

2011-01-01

Background and Aims The ability to simulate plant competition accurately is essential for plant functional type (PFT)-based models used in climate-change studies, yet gaps and uncertainties remain in our understanding of the details of the competition mechanisms and in ecosystem responses at a landscape level. This study examines secondary succession in a temperate deciduous forest in eastern China with the aim of determining if competition between tree types can be explained by differences in leaf ecophysiological traits and growth allometry, and whether ecophysiological traits and habitat spatial configurations among PFTs differentiate their responses to climate change. Methods A temperate deciduous broadleaved forest in eastern China was studied, containing two major vegetation types dominated by Quercus liaotungensis (OAK) and by birch/poplar (Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana; BIP), respectively. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (TESim) suite of models was used to examine carbon and water dynamics using parameters measured at the site, and the model was evaluated against long-term data collected at the site. Key Results Simulations indicated that a higher assimilation rate for the BIP vegetation than OAK led to the former's dominance during early successional stages with relatively low competition. In middle/late succession with intensive competition for below-ground resources, BIP, with its lower drought tolerance/resistance and smaller allocation to leaves/roots, gave way to OAK. At landscape scale, predictions with increased temperature extrapolated from existing weather records resulted in increased average net primary productivity (NPP; +19 %), heterotrophic respiration (+23 %) and net ecosystem carbon balance (+17 %). The BIP vegetation in higher and cooler habitats showed 14 % greater sensitivity to increased temperature than the OAK at lower and warmer locations. Conclusions Drought tolerance/resistance and morphology-related allocation strategy (i.e. more allocation to leaves/roots) played key roles in the competition between the vegetation types. The overall site-average impacts of increased temperature on NPP and carbon stored in plants were found to be positive, despite negative effects of increased respiration and soil water stress, with such impacts being more significant for BIP located in higher and cooler habitats. PMID:21835816

Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America.

PubMed

Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Held, Isaac; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel; Huang, Huei-Ping; Harnik, Nili; Leetmaa, Ants; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Li, Cuihua; Velez, Jennifer; Naik, Naomi

2007-05-25

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

Economics research supporting water resource stewardship in the Pacific Northwest.

Treesearch

Laurie L. Houston; Jeffrey D. Kline; Ralph J. Alig

2002-01-01

The use of water increasingly involves complex tradeoffs among biophysical, economic, ecological, and societal values. Knowledge about the value of water to different users and methods with which to evaluate biophysical, economic, ecological, and social tradeoffs associated with allocating limited water resources among competing uses is vital to devising appropriate...

Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total water stored in the reservoirs) and the month of the year as inputs; and the demand deliveries as outputs. The developed simulation management model integrates the fuzzy-ruled system of the operation of the two main reservoirs of the basin with the corresponding mass balance equations, the physical or boundary conditions and the water allocation rules among the competing demands. Historical information on inflow time series is used as inputs to the model simulation, being trained and validated using historical information on reservoir storage level and flow in several streams of the Mijares river. This methodology provides a more flexible and close to real policies approach. The model is easy to develop and to understand due to its rule-based structure, which mimics the human way of thinking. This can improve cooperation and negotiation between managers, decision-makers and stakeholders. The approach can be also applied to analyze the historical operation of the reservoir (what we have called a reservoir operation "audit").

Interactive Online Real-time Groundwater Model for Irrigation Water Allocation in the Heihe Mid-reaches, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedrazzini, G.; Kinzelbach, W.

2016-12-01

In the Heihe Basin and many other semi-arid regions in the world the ongoing introduction of smart meter IC-card systems on farmers' pumping wells will soon allow monitoring and control of abstractions with the goal of preventing further depletion of the resource. In this regard, a major interest of policy makers concerns the development of new and the improvement of existing legislation on pricing schemes and groundwater/surface water quotas. Predictive knowledge on the development of groundwater levels for different allocation schemes or climatic change scenarios is required to support decision-makers in this task. In the past groundwater models have been a static component of investigations and their results delivered in the form of reports. We set up and integrated a groundwater model into a user-friendly web-based environment, allowing direct and easy access to the novice user. Through operating sliders the user can select an irrigation district, change irrigation patterns such as partitioning of surface- and groundwater, size of irrigation area, irrigation efficiency, as well as a number of climate related parameters. Reactive handles allow to display the results in real-time. The implemented software is all license free. The tool is currently being introduced to irrigation district managers in the project area. Findings will be available after some practical experience to be expected in a given time. The accessibility via a web-interface is a novelty in the context of groundwater models. It allows delivering a product accessible from everywhere and from any device. The maintenance and if necessary updating of model or software can occur remotely. Feedback mechanisms between reality and prediction will be introduced and the model periodically updated through data assimilation as new data becomes available. This will render the model a dynamic tool steadily available and evolving over time.

Allocation to leaf area and sapwood area affects water relations of co-occurring savanna and forest trees.

PubMed

Gotsch, Sybil G; Geiger, Erika L; Franco, Augusto C; Goldstein, Guillermo; Meinzer, Frederick C; Hoffmann, William A

2010-06-01

Water availability is a principal factor limiting the distribution of closed-canopy forest in the seasonal tropics, suggesting that forest tree species may not be well adapted to cope with seasonal drought. We studied 11 congeneric species pairs, each containing one forest and one savanna species, to test the hypothesis that forest trees have a lower capacity to maintain seasonal homeostasis in water relations relative to savanna species. To quantify this, we measured sap flow, leaf water potential (Psi(L)), stomatal conductance (g (s)), wood density, and Huber value (sapwood area:leaf area) of the 22 study species. We found significant differences in the water relations of these two species types. Leaf area specific hydraulic conductance of the soil/root/leaf pathway (G (t)) was greater for savanna species than forest species. The lower G (t) of forest trees resulted in significantly lower Psi(L) and g (s) in the late dry season relative to savanna trees. The differences in G (t) can be explained by differences in biomass allocation of savanna and forest trees. Savanna species had higher Huber values relative to forest species, conferring greater transport capacity on a leaf area basis. Forest trees have a lower capacity to maintain homeostasis in Psi(L) due to greater allocation to leaf area relative to savanna species. Despite significant differences in water relations, relationships between traits such as wood density and minimum Psi(L) were indistinguishable for the two species groups, indicating that forest and savanna share a common axis of water-use strategies involving multiple traits.

HIV epidemic control-a model for optimal allocation of prevention and treatment resources.

PubMed

Alistar, Sabina S; Long, Elisa F; Brandeau, Margaret L; Beck, Eduard J

2014-06-01

With 33 million people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) worldwide and 2.7 million new infections occurring annually, additional HIV prevention and treatment efforts are urgently needed. However, available resources for HIV control are limited and must be used efficiently to minimize the future spread of the epidemic. We develop a model to determine the appropriate resource allocation between expanded HIV prevention and treatment services. We create an epidemic model that incorporates multiple key populations with different transmission modes, as well as production functions that relate investment in prevention and treatment programs to changes in transmission and treatment rates. The goal is to allocate resources to minimize R 0, the reproductive rate of infection. We first develop a single-population model and determine the optimal resource allocation between HIV prevention and treatment. We extend the analysis to multiple independent populations, with resource allocation among interventions and populations. We then include the effects of HIV transmission between key populations. We apply our model to examine HIV epidemic control in two different settings, Uganda and Russia. As part of these applications, we develop a novel approach for estimating empirical HIV program production functions. Our study provides insights into the important question of resource allocation for a country's optimal response to its HIV epidemic and provides a practical approach for decision makers. Better decisions about allocating limited HIV resources can improve response to the epidemic and increase access to HIV prevention and treatment services for millions of people worldwide.

Linking root hydraulic properties to carbon allocation patterns in annual plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, A.; Ewers, B. E.; Adjesiwor, A. T.; Kniss, A. R.

2017-12-01

Incorporation of root structure and function into biophysical models is an important tool to predict plant water and nutrient uptake from the soil, plant carbon (C) assimilation, partitioning and release to the soils. Most of the models describing root water uptake (RWU) are based on semi-empirical (i.e. built on physiological hypotheses, but still combined with empirical functions) approaches and hydraulic parameters involved are hardly available. Root conductance is essential to define the interaction between soil-to-root and canopy-to-atmosphere. Also root hydraulic limitations to water flow can impact gas exchange rates and plant biomass partitioning. In this study, sugar beet (B. vulgaris) seeds under two treatments, grass (Kentucky bluegrass) and no grass (control), were planted in 19 L plastic buckets in June 2016. Photosynthetic characteristics (e.g. gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence), leaf morphology and anatomy, root morphology and above and below ground biomass of the plants was monitored at 15, 30, 50, 70 and 90 days after planting (DAP). Further emphasis was placed on the limits to water flow by coupling of hydraulic conductance (k) whole root-system with water relation parameters and gas exchange rates in fully established plants.

Environmental performances of coproducts. Application of Claiming-Based Allocation models to straw and vetiver biorefineries in an Indian context.

PubMed

Gnansounou, Edgard; Raman, Jegannathan Kenthorai

2018-04-24

Among the renewables, non-food and wastelands based biofuels are essential for the transport sector to achieve country's climate mitigation targets. With the growing interest in biorefineries, setting policy requirements for other coproducts along with biofuels is necessary to improve the products portfolio of biorefinery, increase the bioproducts perception by the consumers and push the technology forward. Towards this context, Claiming-Based allocation models were used in comparative life cycle assessment of multiple products from wheat straw biorefinery and vetiver biorefinery. Vetiver biorefinery shows promising Greenhouse gas emission savings (181-213%) compared to the common crop based lignocellulose (wheat straw) biorefinery. Assistance of Claiming-Based Allocation models favors to find out the affordable allocation limit (0-80%) among the coproducts in order to achieve the individual prospective policy targets. Such models show promising application in multiproduct life cycle assessment studies where appropriate allocation is challenging to achieve the individual products emission subject to policy targets. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of Sediment Transport of the Mehadica River, Caras Severin County, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozav, Adia; Beilicci, Robert; Beilicci, Erika

2017-10-01

Study case is situated in Caras-Severin County. Every sediment transport model application is different both in terms of time and space scale, study objectives, required accuracy, allocated resources, background of the study team etc. For sediment transport modelling, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the sediment in the river bed. Therefore, it is recommended to collect a number of bed sediment grap samples. These samples should be analysing in terms of grain size distribution. To solve theoretical problems of movement of water in the river Mehadica, it requires modelling of water flow in this case. Numerical modelling was performed using the program MIKE11. MIKE 11 is a user-friendly, fully dynamic, one-dimensional modelling tool for the detailed analysis, design, management and operation of both simple and complex river and channel systems. With its exceptional flexibility, speed and user friendly environment, MIKE 11 provides a complete and effective design environment for engineering, water resources, water quality management and planning applications. The Hydrodynamic (HD) module is the nucleus of the MIKE 11 modelling system and forms the basis for most modules including Flood Forecasting, Advection- Dispersion, Water Quality and Non-cohesive sediment transport modules. The MIKE 11 HD module solves the vertically integrated equations for the conservation of mass and momentum, i.e. the Saint-Venant equations. The input data are: area plan with location of cross sections; cross sections topographical data and roughness of river bed; flood discharge hydrograph. Advanced computational modules are included for description of flow over hydraulic structures, including possibilities to describe structure operation.

Modeling falling groundwater tables in major cities of the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, E.; Erkens, G.

2015-12-01

Groundwater use and its over-consumption are one of the major drivers in the hydrology of many major cities in the world, particularly in delta regions. Yet, a global assessment to identify cities with declining groundwater table problems has not been done yet. In this study we used the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (10 km resolution, for 1960-2010). Using this model, we globally calculated groundwater recharge and river discharge/surface water levels, as well as global water demand and abstraction from ground- and surface water resources. The output of PCR-GLOBWB model was then used to force a groundwater MODFLOW-based model simulating spatio-temporal groundwater head dynamics, including groundwater head declines in all major cities - mainly in delta regions - due to escalation in abstraction of groundwater to meet increasing water demand. Using these coupled models, we managed to identify a number of critical cities having groundwater table falling rates above 50 cm/year (average in 2000-2010), such as Barcelona, Houston, Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York, Rome and many large cities in China, Libya, India and Pakistan, as well as in Middle East and Central Asia regions. However, our simulation results overestimate the depletion rates in San Jose, Tokyo, Venice, and other cities where groundwater usages have been aggressively managed and replaced by importing surface water from other places. Moreover, our simulation might underestimate the declining groundwater head trends in some familiar cases, such as Bangkok (12 cm/year), Ho Chi Minh City (34 cm/year), and Jakarta (26 cm/year). The underestimation was due to an over-optimistic model assumption in allocating surface water for satisfying urban water needs. In reality, many big cities, although they are located in wet regions and have abundant surface water availability, still strongly rely on groundwater sources due to inadequate facilities to treat and distribute surface water resources.

Modeling falling groundwater tables in major cities of the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Erkens, Gilles

2016-04-01

Groundwater use and its over-consumption are one of the major drivers in the hydrology of many major cities in the world, particularly in delta regions. Yet, a global assessment to identify cities with declining groundwater table problems has not been done yet. In this study we used the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (10 km resolution, for 1960-2010). Using this model, we globally calculated groundwater recharge and river discharge/surface water levels, as well as global water demand and abstraction from ground- and surface water resources. The output of PCR-GLOBWB model was then used to force a groundwater MODFLOW-based model simulating spatio-temporal groundwater head dynamics, including groundwater head declines in all major cities - mainly in delta regions - due to escalation in abstraction of groundwater to meet increasing water demand. Using these coupled models, we managed to identify a number of critical cities having groundwater table falling rates above 50 cm/year (average in 2000-2010), such as Barcelona, Houston, Los Angeles, Mexico City, New York, Rome and many large cities in China, Libya, India and Pakistan, as well as in Middle East and Central Asia regions. However, our simulation results overestimate the depletion rates in San Jose, Tokyo, Venice, and other cities where groundwater usages have been aggressively managed and replaced by importing surface water from other places. Moreover, our simulation might underestimate the declining groundwater head trends in some familiar cases, such as Bangkok (12 cm/year), Ho Chi Minh City (34 cm/year), and Jakarta (26 cm/year). The underestimation was due to an over-optimistic model assumption in allocating surface water for satisfying urban water needs. In reality, many big cities, although they are located in wet regions and have abundant surface water availability, still strongly rely on groundwater sources due to inadequate facilities to treat and distribute surface water resources.

Research on Evaluation of resource allocation efficiency of transportation system based on DEA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhehui; Du, Linan

2017-06-01

In this paper, we select the time series data onto 1985-2015 years, construct the land (shoreline) resources, capital and labor as inputs. The index system of the output is freight volume and passenger volume, we use Quantitative analysis based on DEA method evaluated the resource allocation efficiency of railway, highway, water transport and civil aviation in China. Research shows that the resource allocation efficiency of various modes of transport has obvious difference, and the impact on scale efficiency is more significant. The most important two ways to optimize the allocation of resources to improve the efficiency of the combination of various modes of transport is promoting the co-ordination of various modes of transport and constructing integrated transportation system.

Water Reserves Program. An adaptation strategy to balance water in nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez Perez, M.; Barrios, E.; Salinas-Rodriguez, S.; Wickel, B.; Villon, R. A.

2013-05-01

Freshwater ecosystems occupy approximately 1% of the earth's surface yet possess about 12% of all known animal species. By virtue of their position in the landscape they connect terrestrial and coastal marine biomes and provide and sustain ecosystem services vital to the health and persistence of human communities. These services include the supply of water for food production, urban and ind ustrial consumption, among others. Over the past century many freshwater ecosystems around the world have been heavily modified or lost due to the alteration of flow regimes (e.g. due to damming, canalization, diversion, over-abstraction). The synergistic impacts of land use change, changes in flows, chemical deterioration, and climate change have left many systems and their species very little room to adjust to change, while future projections indicate a steady increase in water demand for food and energy production and water supply to suit the needs of a growing world population. In Mexico, the focus has been to secure water for human development and maximize economic growth, which has resulted in allocation of water beyond available amounts. As a consequence episodic water scarcity severely constrains freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide. Climatic change and variability are presenting serious challenges to a country that already is experiencing serious strain on its water resources. However, freshwater ecosystems are recognized by law as legitimate user of water, and mandate a flow allocation for the environment ("water reserve" or "environmental flows"). Based on this legal provision the Mexican government through the National Water Commission (Conagua), with support of the Alliance WWF - Fundación Gonzalo Río Arronte, and the Interamerican Development Bank, has launched a national program to identify and implement "water reserves": basins where environmental flows will be secured and allocated and where the flow regime is then protected before over-allocation takes place. The strategy is to identify and protect basins with an availability of water that is close to their natural flow regime and that also have a high conservation value (based on prior national conservation priority definitions such as protected areas, and biodiversity conservation gap analyses) in order to implement legal restrictions on water resource development. With such protection, these systems will be best positioned to adjust and respond to water shortages, and regime shifts. To date, 189 basins around the country were identified as potential water reserves. The next step will be the nomination of these water reserves to be integrated in the National Water Reserves Program. This program forms the core of the official Mexican government adaptation strategy towards climate prepared water management, which recognizes that water reserves are the buffer society needs to face uncertainty, and reduce water scarcity risk. The development of activities that alter the natural flow regime such as dams and levees are closely examined, and would potentially be restricted.