Quantitative comparisons of three modeling approaches for characterizing drought response of a highly variable, widely grown crop species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleban, J. R.; Mackay, D. S.; Aston, T.; Ewers, B. E.; Wienig, C.

2013-12-01

Quantifying the drought tolerance of crop species and genotypes is essential in order to predict how water stress may impact agricultural productivity. As climate models predict an increase in both frequency and severity of drought corresponding plant hydraulic and biochemical models are needed to accurately predict crop drought tolerance. Drought can result in cavitation of xylem conduits and related loss of plant hydraulic conductivity. This study tested the hypothesis that a model incorporating a plants vulnerability to cavitation would best assess drought tolerance in Brassica rapa. Four Brassica genotypes were subjected to drought conditions at a field site in Laramie, WY. Concurrent leaf gas exchange, volumetric soil moisture content and xylem pressure measurements were made during the drought period. Three models were used to access genotype specific drought tolerance. All 3 models rely on the Farquhar biochemical/biophysical model of leaf level photosynthesis, which is integrated into the Terrestrial Regional Ecosystem Exchange Simulator (TREES). The models differ in how TREES applies the environmental driving data and plant physiological mechanisms; specifically how water availability at the site of photosynthesis is derived. Model 1 established leaf water availability from a modeled soil moisture content; Model 2 input soil moisture measurements directly to establish leaf water availability; Model 3 incorporated the Sperry soil-plant transport model, which calculates flows and pressure along the soil-plant water transport pathway to establish leaf water availability. This third model incorporated measured xylem pressures thus constraining leaf water availability via genotype specific vulnerability curves. A multi-model intercomparison was made using a Bayesian approach, which assessed the interaction between uncertainty in model results and data. The three models were further evaluated by assessing model accuracy and complexity via deviance information criteria (DIC). Results suggest that model 1 was unable to model soil moisture accurately and thus did not effectively characterize drought tolerance. Models 2 and 3 were both effective at characterizing drought tolerance; model 3 preformed best in genotypes with the highest vulnerability to cavitation. By identifying through both Bayesian and DIC analyses models that best characterize drought tolerance future investigations into the interaction between crop productivity and water use can be informed by hypothesis testing using models prior to experimentation.

Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2013-02-01

To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water withdrawal and consumptive water use have been increasing rapidly. To analyze the human perturbation on water resources consistently over a large scale, a number of macro-scale hydrological models (MHMs) have been developed over the recent decades. However, few models consider the feedback between water availability and water demand, and even fewer models explicitly incorporate water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources. Here, we integrate a global water demand model into a global water balance model, and simulate water withdrawal and consumptive water use over the period 1979-2010, considering water allocation from surface water and groundwater resources and explicitly taking into account feedbacks between supply and demand, using two re-analysis products: ERA-Interim and MERRA. We implement an irrigation water scheme, which works dynamically with daily surface and soil water balance, and include a newly available extensive reservoir data set. Simulated surface water and groundwater withdrawal show generally good agreement with available reported national and sub-national statistics. The results show a consistent increase in both surface water and groundwater use worldwide, but groundwater use has been increasing more rapidly than surface water use since the 1990s. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage (TWS) signals are evident, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability. The alteration is particularly large over the heavily regulated basins such as the Colorado and the Columbia, and over the major irrigated basins such as the Mississippi, the Indus, and the Ganges. Including human water use generally improves the correlation of simulated TWS anomalies with those of the GRACE observations.

Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

2015-04-01

The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and propagated through the model to assess its influence on the forecasted flow uncertainty. Furthermore, the effects of uncertainties at different forecast lead times on potential abstraction strategies are assessed. The results show that over a 10 year period, an average of approximately 70 ML/d of potential water is missed in the study catchment under a convention abstraction regime. This indicates a considerable potential for the use of flow forecasting models to effectively implement advanced abstraction management and more efficiently utilize available water resources in the study catchment.

Africa-Wide Monitoring of Small Surface Water Bodies Using Multisource Satellite Data: A Monitoring System for FEWS NET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velpuri, N. M.; Senay, G. B.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

Continental Africa has the largest volume of water stored in wetlands, large lakes, reservoirs and rivers, yet it suffers with problems such as water availability and access. Furthermore, African countries are amongst the most vulnerable to the impact of natural hazards such as droughts and floods. With climate change intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering the distribution and frequency of rainfall, the problem of water availability and access is bound to increase. The U.S Geological Survey Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development, has initiated a large-scale project to monitor small to medium surface water bodies in Africa. Under this project, multi-source satellite data and hydrologic modeling techniques are integrated to monitor these water bodies in Africa. First, small water bodies are mapped using satellite data such as Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Landsat, and high resolution Google Earth imagery. Stream networks and watersheds for each water body are identified using Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation data. Finally, a hydrologic modeling approach that uses satellite-derived precipitation estimates and evapotranspiration data calculated from global data assimilation system climate parameters is applied to model water levels. This approach has been implemented to monitor nearly 300 small water bodies located in 10 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Validation of modeled scaled depths with field-installed gauge data in East Africa demonstrated the ability of the model to capture both the spatial patterns and seasonal variations. Modeled scaled estimates captured up to 60% of the observed gauge variability with an average RMSE of 22%. Current and historic data (since 2001) on relative water level, precipitation, and evapotranspiration for each water body is made available in near real time. The water point monitoring network will be further expanded to cover other pastoral regions of sub-Saharan Africa. This project provides timely information on water availability that supports FEWS NET monitoring activities in Africa. Information on water availability produced in this study would further increase the resilience of local communities to floods and droughts.

Using the CAUSE Model to Understand Public Communication about Water Risks: Perspectives from Texas Groundwater District Officials on Drought and Availability.

PubMed

VanDyke, Matthew S; King, Andy J

2017-12-05

Public communication about drought and water availability risks poses challenges to a potentially disinterested public. Water management professionals, though, have a responsibility to work with the public to engage in communication about water and environmental risks. Because limited research in water management examines organizational communication practices and perceptions, insights into research and practice can be gained through investigation of current applications of these risk communication efforts. Guided by the CAUSE model, which explains common goals in communicating risk information to the public (e.g., creating Confidence, generating Awareness, enhancing Understanding, gaining Satisfaction, and motivating Enactment), semistructured interviews of professionals (N = 25) employed by Texas groundwater conservation districts were conducted. The interviews examined how CAUSE model considerations factor in to communication about drought and water availability risks. These data suggest that many work to build constituents' confidence in their districts. Although audiences and constituents living in drought-prone areas were reported as being engaged with water availability risks and solutions, many district officials noted constituents' lack of perceived risk and engagement. Some managers also indicated that public understanding was a secondary concern of their primary responsibilities and that the public often seemed apathetic about technical details related to water conservation risks. Overall, results suggest complicated dynamics between officials and the public regarding information access and motivation. The article also outlines extensions of the CAUSE model and implications for improving public communication about drought and water availability risks. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling Climate-Water Impacts on Electricity Sector Capacity Expansion: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Averyt, K.

2014-05-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate water availability concerns for thermal power plant cooling, which is responsible for 41% of U.S. water withdrawals. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) data are applied to surface water rights available to new generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water rights. The mean climate projection has only a small impact onmore » national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water rights to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states that purchase fewer water rights and obtain a greater share from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.« less

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER): A Water-Budget Modeling Approach for Managing Water-Supply Resources in Kentucky - Phase I: Data Processing, Model Development, and Application to Non-Karst Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Odom, Kenneth R.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Downs, Aimee C.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Cinotto, Peter J.; Ayers, Mark A.

2009-01-01

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) was developed in cooperation with the Kentucky Division of Water to provide a consistent and defensible method of estimating streamflow and water availability in ungaged basins. WATER is process oriented; it is based on the TOPMODEL code and incorporates historical water-use data together with physiographic data that quantitatively describe topography and soil-water storage. The result is a user-friendly decision tool that can estimate water availability in non-karst areas of Kentucky without additional data or processing. The model runs on a daily time step, and critical source data include a historical record of daily temperature and precipitation, digital elevation models (DEMs), the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO), and historical records of water discharges and withdrawals. The model was calibrated and statistically evaluated for 12 basins by comparing the estimated discharge to that observed at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. When statistically evaluated over a 2,119-day time period, the discharge estimates showed a bias of -0.29 to 0.42, a root mean square error of 1.66 to 5.06, a correlation of 0.54 to 0.85, and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.26 to 0.72. The parameter and input modifications that most significantly improved the accuracy and precision of streamflow-discharge estimates were the addition of Next Generation radar (NEXRAD) precipitation data, a rooting depth of 30 centimeters, and a TOPMODEL scaling parameter (m) derived directly from SSURGO data that was multiplied by an adjustment factor of 0.10. No site-specific optimization was used.

Using Bayesian methods to predict climate impacts on groundwater availability and agricultural production in Punjab, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2015-12-01

Lasting success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India relies on continued availability of local water resources. Supplying primarily rice and wheat for the rest of India, Punjab supports crop irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. The detailed data required to physically model future impacts on water supplies agricultural production is not readily available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements for an under-constrained mass balance model. Using measured values of historical precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we present a method using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to solve for a distribution of values for each unknown parameter in a conceptual mass balance model. Due to heterogeneity across the state, and the resolution of input data, we estimate model parameters at the district-scale using spatial pooling. The resulting model is used to predict the impact of precipitation change scenarios on groundwater availability under multiple cropping options. Predicted groundwater declines vary across the state, suggesting that crop selection and water management strategies should be determined at a local scale. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where water resource management is required to resolve competition between food security and available resources in a changing climate.

Identification of glacial meltwater runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, D.; Hugentobler, A.; Huss, M.; Voinesco, A.; Wernli, H.; Fischer, D.; Weber, E.; Jeannin, P.-Y.; Kauzlaric, M.; Wirz, A.; Vennemann, T.; Hüsler, F.; Schädler, B.; Weingartner, R.

2013-08-01

Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the meltwater can be drained by underlying karst systems, making it difficult to assess water availability. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, geologic information and the findings from tracer experiments were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier meltwater is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season meltwater enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections with the glacier melt model reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

Tracing the influence of land-use change on water quality and coral reefs using a Bayesian model.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Jupiter, Stacy D; Albert, Simon; Klein, Carissa J; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Maina, Joseph M; Mumby, Peter; Olley, Jon; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Wenger, Amelia

2017-07-06

Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world's coral reef regions that may have severe water quality issues. Here we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that uses freely available satellite data to infer the connection between land-uses in catchments and water clarity in coastal oceans. We apply the model to estimate the influence of land-use change on water clarity in Fiji. We tested the model's predictions against underwater surveys, finding that predictions of poor water quality are consistent with observations of high siltation and low coverage of sediment-sensitive coral genera. The model thus provides a means to link land-use change to declines in coastal water quality.

A GIS COST MODEL TO ASSESS THE AVAILABILITY OF FRESHWATER, SEAWATER, AND SALINE GROUNDWATER FOR ALGAL BIOFUEL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Venteris, Erik R.; Skaggs, Richard; Coleman, Andre M.

2013-03-15

A key advantage of using microalgae for biofuel production is the ability of some algal strains to thrive in waters unsuitable for conventional crop irrigation such as saline groundwater or seawater. Nonetheless, the availability of sustainable water supplies will provide significant challenges for scale-up and development of algal biofuels. We conduct a limited techno-economic assessment based on the availability of freshwater, saline groundwater, and seawater for use in open pond algae cultivation systems. We explore water issues through GIS-based models of algae biofuel production, freshwater supply, and cost models for supplying seawater and saline groundwater. We estimate that combined, withinmore » the coterminous US these resources can support production on the order of 9.46E+7 m3 yr-1 (25 billion gallons yr-1) of renewable biodiesel. Achievement of larger targets requires the utilization of less water efficient sites and relatively expensive saline waters. Geographically, water availability is most favorable for the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, where evaporation relative to precipitation is moderate and various saline waters are economically available. As a whole, barren and scrub lands of the southwestern US have limited freshwater supplies so accurate assessment of alternative waters is critical.« less

Modeling and Optimization for Management of Intermittent Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, A. M.; Wilkening, J.; Rycroft, C.

2014-12-01

In many urban areas, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at controlling valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Gradient-based optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability at system endpoints.

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

Impact of length of calibration period on the APEX model water quantity and quality simulation performance

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Availability of continuous long-term measured data for model calibration and validation is limited due to time and resources constraints. As a result, hydrologic and water quality models are calibrated and, if possible, validated when measured data is available. Past work reported on the impact of t...

A model for evaluating effects of climate, water availability, and water management on wetland impoundments--a case study on Bowdoin, Long Lake, and Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tangen, Brian A.; Gleason, Robert A.; Stamm, John F.

2013-01-01

Many wetland impoundments managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the northern Great Plains rely on rivers as a primary water source. A large number of these impoundments currently are being stressed from changes in water supplies and quality, and these problems are forecast to worsen because of projected changes to climate and land use. For example, many managed wetlands in arid regions have become degraded owing to the long-term accumulation of salts and increased salinity associated with evapotranspiration. A primary goal of the USFWS is to provide aquatic habitats for a diversity of waterbirds; thus, wetland managers would benefit from a tool that facilitates evaluation of wetland habitat quality in response to current and anticipated impacts of altered hydrology and salt balances caused by factors such as climate change, water availability, and management actions. A spreadsheet model that simulates the overall water and salinity balance (WSB model) of managed wetland impoundments is presented. The WSB model depicts various habitat metrics, such as water depth, salinity, and surface areas (inundated, dry), which can be used to evaluate alternative management actions under various water-availability and climate scenarios. The WSB model uses widely available spreadsheet software, is relatively simple to use, relies on widely available inputs, and is readily adaptable to specific locations. The WSB model was validated using data from three National Wildlife Refuges with direct and indirect connections to water resources associated with rivers, and common data limitations are highlighted. The WSB model also was used to conduct simulations based on hypothetical climate and management scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating alternative management strategies and climate futures. The WSB model worked well across a range of National Wildlife Refuges and could be a valuable tool for USFWS staff when evaluating system state and management alternatives and establishing long-term goals and objectives.

Leveraging this Golden Age of Remote Sensing and Modeling of Terrestrial Hydrology to Understand Water Cycling in the Water Availability Grand Challenge for North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, T. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Stephens, G. L.

2016-12-01

We live in a time of increasing strains on our global fresh water availability due to increasing population, warming climate, changes in precipitation, and extensive depletion of groundwater supplies. At the same time, we have seen enormous growth in capabilities to remotely sense the regional to global water cycle and model complex systems with physically based frameworks. The GEWEX Water Availability Grand Challenge for North America is poised to leverage this convergence of remote sensing and modeling capabilities to answer fundamental questions on the water cycle. In particular, we envision an experiment that targets the complex and resource-critical Western US from California to just into the Great Plains, constraining physically-based hydrologic modeling with the US and international remote sensing capabilities. In particular, the last decade has seen the implementation or soon-to-be launch of water cycle missions such as GRACE and GRACE-FO for groundwater, SMAP for soil moisture, GPM for precipitation, SWOT for terrestrial surface water, and the Airborne Snow Observatory for snowpack. With the advent of convection-resolving mesoscale climate and water cycle modeling (e.g. WRF, WRF-Hydro) and mesoscale models capable of quantitative assimilation of remotely sensed data (e.g. the JPL Western States Water Mission), we can now begin to test hypotheses on the nature and changes in the water cycle of the Western US from a physical standpoint. In turn, by fusing water cycle science, water management, and ecosystem management while addressing these hypotheses, this golden age of remote sensing and modeling can bring all fields into a markedly less uncertain state of present knowledge and decadal scale forecasts.

Precipitation v. River Discharge Controls on Water Availability to Riparian Trees in the Rhône River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. B.; Sargeant, C. I.; Vallet-Coulomb, C.; Evans, C.; Bates, C. R.

2014-12-01

Water availability to riparian trees in lowlands is controlled through precipitation and its infiltration into floodplain soils, and through river discharge additions to the hyporheic water table. The relative contributions of both water sources to the root zone within river floodplains vary through time, depending on climatic fluctuations. There is currently limited understanding of how climatic fluctuations are expressed at local scales, especially in 'critical zone' hydrology, which is fundamental to the health and sustainability of riparian forest ecosystems. This knowledge is particularly important in water-stressed Mediterranean climate systems, considering climatic trends and projections toward hotter and drier growing seasons, which have the potential to dramatically reduce water availability to riparian forests. Our aim is to identify and quantify the relative contributions of hyporheic (discharge) water v. infiltrated precipitation to water uptake by riparian Mediterranean trees for several distinct hydrologic years, selected to isolate contrasts in water availability from these sources. Our approach includes isotopic analyses of water and tree-ring cellulose, mechanistic modeling of water uptake and wood production, and physically based modeling of subsurface hydrology. We utilize an extensive database of oxygen isotope (δ18O) measurements in surface water and precipitation alongside recent measurements of δ18O in groundwater and soil water and in tree-ring cellulose. We use a mechanistic model to back-calculate source water δ18O based on δ18O in cellulose and climate data. Finally, we test our results via 1-D hydrologic modeling of precipitation infiltration and water table rise and fall. These steps enable us to interpret hydrologic cycle variability within the 'critical zone' and their potential impact on riparian trees.

Country-level assessment of future risk of water scarcity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, Luis; Iglesias, Ana; Granados, Alfredo

2018-06-01

A methodology for regional assessment of current and future water availability in Europe is presented in this study. The methodology is based on a proposed indicator of risk of water scarcity based on the projections of runoff and water availability for European countries. The risk of water scarcity is the combined result of hydrological processes, which determine streamflow in natural conditions, and human intervention, which determines water management using the available hydraulic infrastructure and establishes water supply conditions through operating rules. Model results show that changes in runoff and availability obtained for individual GCM projections can be large and even contradictory. These heterogeneous results are summarized in the water scarcity risk index, a global value that accounts for the results obtained with the ensemble of model results and emission scenarios. The countries at larger risk are (in this order) Spain, Portugal, Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, France and Italy. They are mostly Mediterranean countries already exposed to significant water scarcity problems. There are countries, like Slovakia, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Croatia and Romania, with mild risk. Northern Arctic countries, like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Russia, show a robust however mild increase in water availability.

Assessing the Use of Remote Sensing and a Crop Growth Model to Improve Modeled Streamflow in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richey, A. S.; Richey, J. E.; Tan, A.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.; Sokolov, V.

2015-12-01

Central Asia presents a perfect case study to understand the dynamic, and often conflicting, linkages between food, energy, and water in natural systems. The destruction of the Aral Sea is a well-known environmental disaster, largely driven by increased irrigation demand on the rivers that feed the endorheic sea. Continued reliance on these rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, often place available water resources at odds between hydropower demands upstream and irrigation requirements downstream. A combination of tools is required to understand these linkages and how they may change in the future as a function of climate change and population growth. In addition, the region is geopolitically complex as the former Soviet basin states develop management strategies to sustainably manage shared resources. This complexity increases the importance of relying upon publically available information sources and tools. Preliminary work has shown potential for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to recreate the natural water balance in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins by comparing results to total terrestrial water storage changes observed from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Modeled streamflow is well correlated to observed streamflow at upstream gauges prior to the large-scale expansion of irrigation and hydropower. However, current modeled results are unable to capture the human influence of water use on downstream flow. This study examines the utility of a crop simulation model, CropSyst, to represent irrigation demand and GRACE to improve modeled streamflow estimates in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Specifically we determine crop water demand with CropSyst utilizing available data on irrigation schemes and cropping patterns. We determine how this demand can be met either by surface water, modeled by VIC with a reservoir operation scheme, and/or by groundwater derived from GRACE. Finally, we assess how the inclusion of CropSyst and groundwater to model and meet irrigation demand improves modeled streamflow from VIC throughout the basins. The results of this work are integrated into a decision support platform to assist the basin states in understanding water availability and the impact of management decisions on available resources.

Validation of A Global Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.

Freshwater availability has been recognized as a global issue, and its consistent quan- tification not only in individual river basins but also at the global scale is required to support the sustainable use of water. The Global Hydrology Model WGHM, which is a submodel of the global water use and availability model WaterGAP 2, computes sur- face runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge at a spatial resolution of 0.5. WGHM is based on the best global data sets currently available, including a newly developed drainage direction map and a data set of wetlands, lakes and reservoirs. It calculates both natural and actual discharge by simulating the reduction of river discharge by human water consumption (as computed by the water use submodel of WaterGAP 2). WGHM is calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging sta- tions (representing about 50% of the global land area) by adjusting a parameter of the soil water balance. It not only computes the long-term average water resources but also water availability indicators that take into account the interannual and seasonal variability of runoff and discharge. The reliability of the model results is assessed by comparing observed and simulated discharges at the calibration stations and at se- lected other stations. We conclude that reliable results can be obtained for basins of more than 20,000 km2. In particular, the 90% reliable monthly discharge is simu- lated well. However, there is the tendency that semi-arid and arid basins are modeled less satisfactorily than humid ones, which is partially due to neglecting river channel losses and evaporation of runoff from small ephemeral ponds in the model. Also, the hydrology of highly developed basins with large artificial storages, basin transfers and irrigation schemes cannot be simulated well. The seasonality of discharge in snow- dominated basins is overestimated by WGHM, and if the snow-dominated basin is uncalibrated, discharge is likely to be underestimated due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.

Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Operations and Future Development of the U.S. Electricity System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Cohen, S. M.; Averyt, K.; Macknick, J.; Meldrum, J.; Sullivan, P.

2014-12-01

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate reliability concerns for the power sector through changes in water availability and air temperatures. The power sector is responsible for 41% of U.S. freshwater withdrawals, primarily for power plant cooling needs, and any changes in the water available for the power sector, given increasing competition among water users, could affect decisions about new power plant builds and reliable operations for existing generators. Similarly, increases in air temperatures can reduce power plant efficiencies, which in turn increases fuel consumption as well as water withdrawal and consumption rates. This analysis describes an initial link between climate, water, and electricity systems using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity system capacity expansion model. Average surface water runoff projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) data are applied to surface water available to generating capacity in ReEDS, and electric sector growth is compared with and without climate-influenced water availability for the 134 electricity balancing regions in the ReEDS model. In addition, air temperature changes are considered for their impacts on electricity load, transmission capacity, and power plant efficiencies and water use rates. Mean climate projections have only a small impact on national or regional capacity growth and water use because most regions have sufficient unappropriated or previously retired water access to offset climate impacts. Climate impacts are notable in southwestern states, which experience reduced water access purchases and a greater share of water acquired from wastewater and other higher-cost water resources. The electric sector climate impacts demonstrated herein establish a methodology to be later exercised with more extreme climate scenarios and a more rigorous representation of legal and physical water availability.

Identification of glacial melt water runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, D.; Hugentobler, A.; Huss, M.; Voinesco, A.; Wernli, H.; Fischer, D.; Weber, E.; Jeannin, P.-Y.; Kauzlaric, M.; Wirz, A.; Vennemann, T.; Hüsler, F.; Schädler, B.; Weingartner, R.

2013-03-01

Glaciers all over the world are expected to continue to retreat due to the global warming throughout the 21st century. Consequently, future seasonal water availability might become scarce once glacier areas have declined below a certain threshold affecting future water management strategies. Particular attention should be paid to glaciers located in a karstic environment, as parts of the melt water can be drained by souterrain karst systems. In this study tracer experiments, karst modeling and glacier melt modeling are combined in order to identify flow paths in a high alpine, glacierized, karstic environment (Glacier de la Plaine Morte, Switzerland) and to investigate current and predict future downstream water availability. Flow paths through the karst underground were determined with natural and fluorescent tracers. Subsequently, tracer results and geologic information were assembled in a karst model. Finally, glacier melt projections driven with a climate scenario were performed to discuss future water availability in the area surrounding the glacier. The results suggest that during late summer glacier melt water is rapidly drained through well-developed channels at the glacier bottom to the north of the glacier, while during low flow season melt water enters into the karst and is drained to the south. Climate change projections reveal that by the end of the century glacier melt will be significantly reduced in the summer, jeopardizing water availability in glacier-fed karst springs.

GCIP water and energy budget synthesis (WEBS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roads, J.; Lawford, R.; Bainto, E.; Berbery, E.; Chen, S.; Fekete, B.; Gallo, K.; Grundstein, A.; Higgins, W.; Kanamitsu, M.; Krajewski, W.; Lakshmi, V.; Leathers, D.; Lettenmaier, D.; Luo, L.; Maurer, E.; Meyers, T.; Miller, D.; Mitchell, Ken; Mote, T.; Pinker, R.; Reichler, T.; Robinson, D.; Robock, A.; Smith, J.; Srinivasan, G.; Verdin, K.; Vinnikov, K.; Vonder, Haar T.; Vorosmarty, C.; Williams, S.; Yarosh, E.

2003-01-01

As part of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRPs) Global Energy and Water-Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), a preliminary water and energy budget synthesis (WEBS) was developed for the period 1996-1999 fromthe "best available" observations and models. Besides this summary paper, a companion CD-ROM with more extensive discussion, figures, tables, and raw data is available to the interested researcher from the GEWEX project office, the GAPP project office, or the first author. An updated online version of the CD-ROM is also available at http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/gcip/webs.htm/. Observations cannot adequately characterize or "close" budgets since too many fundamental processes are missing. Models that properly represent the many complicated atmospheric and near-surface interactions are also required. This preliminary synthesis therefore included a representative global general circulation model, regional climate model, and a macroscale hydrologic model as well as a global reanalysis and a regional analysis. By the qualitative agreement among the models and available observations, it did appear that we now qualitatively understand water and energy budgets of the Mississippi River Basin. However, there is still much quantitative uncertainty. In that regard, there did appear to be a clear advantage to using a regional analysis over a global analysis or a regional simulation over a global simulation to describe the Mississippi River Basin water and energy budgets. There also appeared to be some advantage to using a macroscale hydrologic model for at least the surface water budgets. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

An intuitionistic fuzzy multi-objective non-linear programming model for sustainable irrigation water allocation under the combination of dry and wet conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mo; Fu, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Ma, Mingwei; Liu, Xiao

2017-12-01

Water scarcity causes conflicts among natural resources, society and economy and reinforces the need for optimal allocation of irrigation water resources in a sustainable way. Uncertainties caused by natural conditions and human activities make optimal allocation more complex. An intuitionistic fuzzy multi-objective non-linear programming (IFMONLP) model for irrigation water allocation under the combination of dry and wet conditions is developed to help decision makers mitigate water scarcity. The model is capable of quantitatively solving multiple problems including crop yield increase, blue water saving, and water supply cost reduction to obtain a balanced water allocation scheme using a multi-objective non-linear programming technique. Moreover, it can deal with uncertainty as well as hesitation based on the introduction of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Consideration of the combination of dry and wet conditions for water availability and precipitation makes it possible to gain insights into the various irrigation water allocations, and joint probabilities based on copula functions provide decision makers an average standard for irrigation. A case study on optimally allocating both surface water and groundwater to different growth periods of rice in different subareas in Heping irrigation area, Qing'an County, northeast China shows the potential and applicability of the developed model. Results show that the crop yield increase target especially in tillering and elongation stages is a prevailing concern when more water is available, and trading schemes can mitigate water supply cost and save water with an increased grain output. Results also reveal that the water allocation schemes are sensitive to the variation of water availability and precipitation with uncertain characteristics. The IFMONLP model is applicable for most irrigation areas with limited water supplies to determine irrigation water strategies under a fuzzy environment.

Unravelling the limits to tree height: a major role for water and nutrient trade-offs.

PubMed

Cramer, Michael D

2012-05-01

Competition for light has driven forest trees to grow exceedingly tall, but the lack of a single universal limit to tree height indicates multiple interacting environmental limitations. Because soil nutrient availability is determined by both nutrient concentrations and soil water, water and nutrient availabilities may interact in determining realised nutrient availability and consequently tree height. In SW Australia, which is characterised by nutrient impoverished soils that support some of the world's tallest forests, total [P] and water availability were independently correlated with tree height (r = 0.42 and 0.39, respectively). However, interactions between water availability and each of total [P], pH and [Mg] contributed to a multiple linear regression model of tree height (r = 0.72). A boosted regression tree model showed that maximum tree height was correlated with water availability (24%), followed by soil properties including total P (11%), Mg (10%) and total N (9%), amongst others, and that there was an interaction between water availability and total [P] in determining maximum tree height. These interactions indicated a trade-off between water and P availability in determining maximum tree height in SW Australia. This is enabled by a species assemblage capable of growing tall and surviving (some) disturbances. The mechanism for this trade-off is suggested to be through water enabling mass-flow and diffusive mobility of P, particularly of relatively mobile organic P, although water interactions with microbial activity could also play a role.

Contemporary changes of water resources, water and land use in Central Asia based on observations and modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, A. I.; Prousevitch, A.; Sokolik, I. N.; Lammers, R. B.

2015-12-01

Water is a key agent in Central Asia ultimately determining human well-being, food security, and economic development. There are complex interplays among the natural and anthropogenic drivers effecting the regional hydrological processes and water availability. Analysis of the data combined from regional censuses and remote sensing shows a decline in areas of arable and irrigated lands and a significant decrease in availability of arable and irrigated lands per capita across all Central Asian countries since the middle of 1990thas the result of post-Soviet transformation processes. This change could lead to considerable deterioration in food security and human system sustainability. The change of political situation in the region has also resulted in the escalated problems of water demand between countries in international river basins. We applied the University of New Hampshire - Water Balance Model - Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems (WBM-TrANS) to understand the consequences of changes in climate, water and land use on regional hydrological processes and water availability. The model accounts for sub-pixel land cover types, glacier and snow-pack accumulation/melt across sub-pixel elevation bands, anthropogenic water use (e.g. domestic and industrial consumption, and irrigation for most of existing crop types), hydro-infrastructure for inter-basin water transfer and reservoir/dam regulations. A suite of historical climate re-analysis and temporal extrapolation of MIRCA-2000 crop structure datasets has been used in WBM-TrANS for this project. A preliminary analysis of the model simulations over the last 30 years has shown significant spatial and temporal changes in hydrology and water availability for crops and human across the region due to climatic and anthropogenic causes. We found that regional water availability is mostly impacted by changes in extents and efficiency of crop filed irrigation, especially in highly arid areas of Central Asia, changes in winter snow storage, and shifts in seasonality and intensity of glacier melt waters driven by climatic changes.

Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.

Recent studies have highlighted the potential impact of climate change on US electricity generation capacity by exploring the effect of changes in stream temperatures on available capacity of thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh-water cooling. However, little is known about the electric system impacts under extreme climate event such as drought. Vulnerability assessments are usually performed for a baseline water year or a specific drought, which do not provide insights into the full grid stress distribution across the diversity of climate events. In this paper we estimate the impacts of the water availability on the electricity generation and transmission inmore » the Western US grid for a range of historical water availability combinations. We softly couple an integrated water model, which includes climate, hydrology, routing, water resources management and socio-economic water demand models, into a grid model (production cost model) and simulate 30 years of historical hourly power flow conditions in the Western US grid. The experiment allows estimating the grid stress distribution as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability. Results indicate a clear correlation between grid vulnerability (as quantified in unmet energy demand and increased production cost) for the summer month of August and annual water availability. There is a 3% chance that at least 6% of the electricity demand cannot be met in August, and 21% chance of not meeting 0.5% of the load in the Western US grid. There is a 3% chance that at least 6% of the electricity demand cannot be met in August, and 21% chance of not meeting 0.1% or more of the load in the Western US grid. The regional variability in water availability contributes significantly to the reliability of the grid and could provide trade off opportunities in times of stress. This paper is the first to explore operational grid impacts imposed by droughts in the Western U.S. grid.« less

A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

2015-05-01

A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

Africa-wide monitoring of small surface water bodies using multisource satellite data: a monitoring system for FEWS NET: chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Senay, Gabriel B.; Rowland, James; Verdin, James P.; Alemu, Henok; Melesse, Assefa M.; Abtew, Wossenu; Setegn, Shimelis G.

2014-01-01

Continental Africa has the highest volume of water stored in wetlands, large lakes, reservoirs, and rivers, yet it suffers from problems such as water availability and access. With climate change intensifying the hydrologic cycle and altering the distribution and frequency of rainfall, the problem of water availability and access will increase further. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has initiated a large-scale project to monitor small to medium surface water points in Africa. Under this project, multisource satellite data and hydrologic modeling techniques are integrated to monitor several hundreds of small to medium surface water points in Africa. This approach has been already tested to operationally monitor 41 water points in East Africa. The validation of modeled scaled depths with field-installed gauge data demonstrated the ability of the model to capture both the spatial patterns and seasonal variations. Modeled scaled estimates captured up to 60 % of the observed gauge variability with a mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 22 %. The data on relative water level, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ETo) for water points in East and West Africa were modeled since 1998 and current information is being made available in near-real time. This chapter presents the approach, results from the East African study, and the first phase of expansion activities in the West Africa region. The water point monitoring network will be further expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. The goal of this study is to provide timely information on the water availability that would support already established FEWS NET activities in Africa. This chapter also presents the potential improvements in modeling approach to be implemented during future expansion in Africa.

Modeling integrated water user decisions in intermittent supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenberg, David E.; Tarawneh, Tarek; Abdel-Khaleq, Rania; Lund, Jay R.

2007-07-01

We apply systems analysis to estimate household water use in an intermittent supply system considering numerous interdependent water user behaviors. Some 39 household actions include conservation; improving local storage or water quality; and accessing sources having variable costs, availabilities, reliabilities, and qualities. A stochastic optimization program with recourse decisions identifies the infrastructure investments and short-term coping actions a customer can adopt to cost-effectively respond to a probability distribution of piped water availability. Monte Carlo simulations show effects for a population of customers. Model calibration reproduces the distribution of billed residential water use in Amman, Jordan. Parametric analyses suggest economic and demand responses to increased availability and alternative pricing. It also suggests potential market penetration for conservation actions, associated water savings, and subsidies to entice further adoption. We discuss new insights to size, target, and finance conservation.

Modeling Hydrological Processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico Border Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samimi, M.; Jahan, N. T.; Mirchi, A.

2017-12-01

Efficient allocation of limited water resources to competing use sectors is becoming increasingly critical for water-scarce regions. Understanding natural and anthropogenic processes affecting hydrological processes is key for efficient water management. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model governing hydrologic processes in New Mexico-Texas-Mexico border region. Our study area includes the Elephant Butte Irrigation District (EBID), which manages water resources to support irrigated agriculture. The region is facing water resources challenges associated with chronic water scarcity, over-allocation, diminishing water supply, and growing water demand. Agricultural activities rely on conjunctive use of Rio Grande River water supply and groundwater withdrawal. The model is calibrated and validated under baseline conditions in the arid and semi-arid climate in order to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector and regional water availability. We highlight the importance of calibrating the crop growth parameters, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge to provide a realistic representation of the hydrological processes and water availability in the region. Furthermore, limitations of the model and its utility to inform stakeholders will be discussed.

Climatic water deficit, tree species ranges, and climate change in Yosemite National Park

Treesearch

James A. Lutz; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; Jerry F. Franklin

2010-01-01

Modelled changes in climate water deficit between past, present and future climate scenarios suggest that recent past changes in forest structure and composition may accelerate in the future, with species responding individualistically to further declines in water availability. Declining water availability may disproportionately affect Pinus monticola...

The Future of Water Security in Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo Through Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gesualdo, G. C.; Oliveira, P. T. S.; Rodrigues, D. B. B.

2017-12-01

Achieving a balance between water availability and demand is one of the most pressing environmental challenges in the twenty-first century. This challenge is exacerbated by, climate change, which has already affected the water balance of landscapes globally by intensifying runoff, reducing snowpacks, and shifting precipitation regimes. Understanding these changes is crucial to identifying future water availability and developing sustainable management plans, especially in developing countries. Here, we address the developing country water balance challenge by assessing the influence of climate change on the water availability in the Jaguari basin, Southeastern Brazil. The Jaguari basin is one of the main sources of freshwater for 9 million people in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. This region represents about 7% of the Brazil's Gross Domestic Product. The critical importance of the water balance challenge in this area has been highlighted recently when a major drought in southeastern Brazil revealed the vulnerability of current water management systems. Still today, the per capita water availability in the region remains severely limited. To help address this water balance challenge, we use a modeling approach to predict future water vulnerabilities of this region under different climate scenarios. Here, we calibrated and validated a lumped conceptual model using HYMOD to evaluate future scenarios using downscaled climate models resulting from HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 GCMs forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We also present future directions which include bias correction from long-term weather station data and an empirical uncertainty assessment. Our results provide an important overview of climate change impacts on streamflow and future water availability in the Jaguari basin, which can be used to guide the basin`s water security plans and strategies.

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Modeling and Economic Analysis of Power Grid Operations in a Water Constrained System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z.; Xia, Y.; Veselka, T.; Yan, E.; Betrie, G.; Qiu, F.

2016-12-01

The power sector is the largest water user in the United States. Depending on the cooling technology employed at a facility, steam-electric power stations withdrawal and consume large amounts of water for each megawatt hour of electricity generated. The amounts are dependent on many factors, including ambient air and water temperatures, cooling technology, etc. Water demands from most economic sectors are typically highest during summertime. For most systems, this coincides with peak electricity demand and consequently a high demand for thermal power plant cooling water. Supplies however are sometimes limited due to seasonal precipitation fluctuations including sporadic droughts that lead to water scarcity. When this occurs there is an impact on both unit commitments and the real-time dispatch. In this work, we model the cooling efficiency of several different types of thermal power generation technologies as a function of power output level and daily temperature profiles. Unit specific relationships are then integrated in a power grid operational model that minimizes total grid production cost while reliably meeting hourly loads. Grid operation is subject to power plant physical constraints, transmission limitations, water availability and environmental constraints such as power plant water exit temperature limits. The model is applied to a standard IEEE-118 bus system under various water availability scenarios. Results show that water availability has a significant impact on power grid economics.

Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2015-04-01

The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem. The analyses show that there will be much more water available in future under the considered emission scenarios but in some months there will be scarcity of water. However, by proper management and optimum utilization of the available water, the scarcity of water can be minimized considerably. Finally, a meta-analysis has been performed to present a combined picture of all scenarios considered in this study. One way to avoid water scarcity is to upgrade and install new reservoirs and water storage capacities to reserve the extra water during high river flow in Indus River, which will then be utilized during low river flow. __________________________________________________________________________________ KEY WORDS: Agriculture, Climate Change, Hydro-power, Indus River, Tarbela Reservoir, Upper Indus Basin, Meta-analysis, Hydrological model.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

Climate change impacts on water availability in the Red River Basin and critical areas for future water conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamani Sabzi, H.; Moreno, H. A.; Neeson, T. M.; Rosendahl, D. H.; Bertrand, D.; Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Kellog, W.; Mcpherson, R. A.; Hudson, C.; Austin, B. N.

2017-12-01

Previous periods of severe drought followed by exceptional flooding in the Red River Basin (RRB) have significantly affected industry, agriculture, and the environment in the region. Therefore, projecting how climate may change in the future and being prepared for potential impacts on the RRB is crucially important. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on water availability across the RRB. We used three down-scaled global climate models and three potential greenhouse gas emission scenarios to assess precipitation, temperature, streamflow and lake levels throughout the RRB from 1961 to 2099 at a spatial resolution of 1/10°. Unit-area runoff and streamflow were obtained using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model applied across the entire basin. We found that most models predict less precipitation in the western side of the basin and more in the eastern side. In terms of temperature, the models predict that average temperature could increase as much as 6°C. Most models project slightly more precipitation and streamflow values in the future, specifically in the eastern side of the basin. Finally, we analyzed the projected meteorological and hydrologic parameters alongside regional water demand for different sectors to identify the areas on the RRB that will need water-environmental conservation actions in the future. These hotspots of future low water availability are locations where regional environmental managers, water policy makers, and the agricultural and industrial sectors must proactively prepare to deal with declining water availability over the coming decades.

Improving assessment of groundwater-resource sustainability with deterministic modelling: a case study of the semi-arid Musi sub-basin, South India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massuel, S.; George, B. A.; Venot, J.-P.; Bharati, L.; Acharya, S.

2013-11-01

Since the 1990s, Indian farmers, supported by the government, have partially shifted from surface-water to groundwater irrigation in response to the uncertainty in surface-water availability. Water-management authorities only slowly began to consider sustainable use of groundwater resources as a prime concern. Now, a reliable integration of groundwater resources for water-allocation planning is needed to prevent aquifer overexploitation. Within the 11,000-km2 Musi River sub-basin (South India), human interventions have dramatically impacted the hard-rock aquifers, with a water-table drop of 0.18 m/a over the period 1989-2004. A fully distributed numerical groundwater model was successfully implemented at catchment scale. The model allowed two distinct conceptualizations of groundwater availability to be quantified: one that was linked to easily quantified fluxes, and one that was more expressive of long-term sustainability by taking account of all sources and sinks. Simulations showed that the latter implied 13 % less available groundwater for exploitation than did the former. In turn, this has major implications for the existing water-allocation modelling framework used to guide decision makers and water-resources managers worldwide.

Impacts of Change in Irrigation Water Availability on Food Production in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Y. Y.; Tang, Q.

2014-12-01

Approximately 9 percent of China's population and 17 percent of its agricultural area are settled in the Yellow River Basins. Irrigation, which plays an important role in agricultural production, occupies the largest share of human consumptive water use in the basin. Given increasing water demands, the basin faces acute water scarcity. Previous studies have suggested that decrease in irrigation water availability under climate change might have an overall adverse impact on the food production of the basin. The timing and area that would face severe water stress are yet to be identified. We used a land surface hydrological model forced with the bias-corrected climatic variables from 5 climate models under 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to estimate total water availability in the sub-basins of the Yellow River basin. The future socioeconomic conditions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), were used to estimate the water requirement in the nonagricultural water use sectors. The irrigation water availability was estimated from the total water availability and nonagricultural water use, and the irrigation water demands were estimated based on the current irrigation project efficiencies. The timing and area of irrigation water shortage were shown and the implication of change in irrigation water availability on food production was assessed. The results show that the sub-basins with high population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are likely to confront severe water stress and reduction in food production earlier because irrigation water was to be appropriated by the rapid increase in nonagricultural water use sectors. The study stresses the need for adaptive management of water to balance agriculture and nonagricultural demands in northern China.

Hydrologic modeling for monitoring water availability in Eastern and Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Harrison, L.; Shukla, S.; Pricope, N. G.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2017-12-01

Severe droughts in 2015, 2016 and 2017 in Ethiopia, Southern Africa, and Somalia have negatively impacted agriculture and municipal water supplies resulting in food and water insecurity. Information from remotely sensed data and field reports indicated that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation (FLDAS) accurately tracked both the anomalously low soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff conditions. This work presents efforts to more precisely monitor how the water balance responds to water availability deficits (i.e. drought) as estimated by the FLDAS with CHIRPS precipitation, MERRA-2 meteorological forcing and the Noah33 land surface model.Preliminary results indicate that FLDAS streamflow estimates are well correlated with observed streamflow where irrigation and other channel modifications are not present; FLDAS evapotranspiration (ET) is well correlated with ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop) in Eastern and Southern Africa. We then use these results to monitor availability, and explore trends in water supply and demand.

Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Daliakopoulos, Ioannis N.; Jacob, Daniela

2013-02-01

SummaryAn assessment of the impact of global climate change on the water resources status of the island of Crete, for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime is presented. Three "state of the art" Global Climate Models (GCMs) and an ensemble of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under emission scenarios B1, A2 and A1B provide future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) estimates that are bias adjusted against observations. The ensemble of RCMs for the A1B scenario project a higher P reduction compared to GCMs projections under A2 and B1 scenarios. Among GCMs model results, the ECHAM model projects a higher P reduction compared to IPSL and CNCM. Water availability for the whole island at basin scale until 2100 is estimated using the SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model And a set of demand and infrastructure scenarios are adopted to simulate potential water use. While predicted reduction of water availability under the B1 emission scenario can be handled with water demand stabilized at present values and full implementation of planned infrastructure, other scenarios require additional measures and a robust signal of water insufficiency is projected. Despite inherent uncertainties, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like Crete. The results of the study reinforce the necessity to improve and update local water management planning and adaptation strategies in order to attain future water security.

A comparison of hydrologic models for ecological flows and water availability

Treesearch

Peter V. Caldwell; Jonathan G. Kennen; Ge Sun; Julie E. Kiang; Jon B. Butcher; Michele C. Eddy; Lauren E. Hay; Jacob H. LaFontaine; Ernie F. Hain; Stacy A. C. Nelson; Steve G. McNulty

2015-01-01

Robust hydrologic models are needed to help manage water resources for healthy aquatic ecosystems and reliable water supplies for people, but there is a lack of comprehensive model comparison studies that quantify differences in streamflow predictions among model applications developed to answer management questions. We assessed differences in daily streamflow...

Development of a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Feasibility of Water Leasing in the Middle Rio Grande Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, C. B.; Boyle, D. P.; Lamorey, G. W.; Bassett, S. D.

2007-12-01

The demand for water in the southwestern United States has increased in tandem with a rapid growth of population over the past 50 years. With ever increasing demands being placed on available water supplies, improving water management becomes crucial to the sustainability of the region's water resources. The National Science Foundation (NSF) Science and Technology Center (STC) for the Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) is interested in the feasibility of water leasing as a method for more efficiently distributing water among competing users. Economists working on the project will run water leasing simulations in an auction-type environment to understand the pros and cons of water leasing in a free market system. To include hydrologic processes in the water leasing simulations, an MMS-PRMS hydrologic model was developed for a portion of the Middle Rio Grande Basin (MRGB) near Albuquerque, New Mexico. This portion of the MRGB contains a detailed network of diversions, canals, and drains that transport water through the system. In order to capture the complexity of the system, the model was developed using the highest resolution information available. In the model, each Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) is represented as a trader. To achieve the 15 trader limit desired by economists, the model structure was simplified using two basic constraints; 1) HRUs having a common source and point of return to the river were lumped; and 2) HRUs with less than 20% agricultural land use were omitted from the auction simulations. A new Evapotranspiration (ET) module was implemented in the model to better estimate ET associated with different crops. Modules were also developed so that the end user has the flexibility to manipulate water deliveries based on crop type and land use. The MMS- PRMS model for the MRGB should help economists determine if the incentive to profit by selling or buying water can make more efficient use of the available water supply.

Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faunt, Claudia C.; Sneed, Michelle; Traum, Jon; Brandt, Justin T.

2016-05-01

The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007-2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood-control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Sneed, Michelle; Traum, Jonathan A.; Brandt, Justin

2016-01-01

The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007–2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood-control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

Using regional scale flow-ecology modeling to identify catchments where fish assemblages are most vulnerable to changes in water availability

Treesearch

Ernie F. Hain; Jonathan G. Kennen; Peter V. Caldwell; Stacy A.C. Nelson; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty

2017-01-01

Streamflow is essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for sup- porting human water supply needs. Changes in climate, land use and water use practices may alter water availability. Understanding the potential effect of these changes on aquatic ecosystems is critical for long-term water management to maintain a balance between water for human consumption...

76 FR 9614 - Notice of Availability of the Proposed Models for Plant-Specific Adoption of Technical...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-18

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0039] Notice of Availability of the Proposed Models for..., ``Technical Specifications End States, NEDC-32988-A,'' for Boiling Water Reactor Plants Using the Consolidated... Availability. SUMMARY: The NRC is announcing the availability of the model application (with model no...

European scale climate information services for water use sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömbäck, Lena; Capell, René; Ludwig, Fulco

2015-09-01

This study demonstrates a climate information service for pan-European water use sectors that are vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological changes, including risk and safety (disaster preparedness), agriculture, energy (hydropower and cooling water use for thermoelectric power) and environment (water quality). To study the climate change impacts we used two different hydrological models forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the lowest (2.6) and highest (8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). Selected indicators of water related vulnerability for each sector were then calculated from the hydrological model results. Our results show a distinct north-south divide in terms of climate change impacts; in the south the water availability will reduce while in the north water availability will increase. Across different climate models precipitation and streamflow increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, but the latitude at which this change occurs varies depending on the GCM. Hydrological extremes are increasing over large parts of Europe. The agricultural sector will be affected by reduced water availability (in the south) and increased drought. Both streamflow and soil moistures droughts are projected to increase in most parts of Europe except in northern Scandinavia and the Alps. The energy sector will be affected by lower hydropower potential in most European countries and reduced cooling water availability due to higher water temperatures and reduced summer river flows. Our results show that in particular in the Mediterranean the pressures are high because of increasing drought which will have large impacts on both the agriculture and energy sectors. In France and Italy this is combined with increased flood hazards. Our results show important impacts of climate change on European water use sectors indicating a clear need for adaptation.

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCluney, Kevin E.; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L.; González, Angélica L.; Hagen, Elizabeth M.; Holland, J. Nathaniel; Kotler, Burt P.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Smith, Stanley D.; Wolf, Blair O.

2012-01-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.

Economic resilience through "One-Water" management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Disruption of water availability leads to food scarcity and loss of economic opportunity. Development of effective water-resource policies and management strategies could provide resiliance to local economies in the face of water disruptions such as drought, flood, and climate change. To accomplish this, a detailed understanding of human water use and natural water resource availability is needed. A hydrologic model is a computer software system that simulates the movement and use of water in a geographic area. It takes into account all components of the water cycle--“One Water”--and helps estimate water budgets for groundwater, surface water, and landscape features. The U.S. Geological Survey MODFLOW One-Water Integrated Hydrologic Model (MODFLOWOWHM) software and scientific methods can provide water managers and political leaders with hydrologic information they need to help ensure water security and economic resilience.

Water-Constrained Electric Sector Capacity Expansion Modeling Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Averyt, K.; Meldrum, J.; Corsi, F.; Prousevitch, A.; Rangwala, I.

2015-12-01

Over 80% of U.S. electricity generation uses a thermoelectric process, which requires significant quantities of water for power plant cooling. This water requirement exposes the electric sector to vulnerabilities related to shifts in water availability driven by climate change as well as reductions in power plant efficiencies. Electricity demand is also sensitive to climate change, which in most of the United States leads to warming temperatures that increase total cooling-degree days. The resulting demand increase is typically greater for peak demand periods. This work examines the sensitivity of the development and operations of the U.S. electric sector to the impacts of climate change using an electric sector capacity expansion model that endogenously represents seasonal and local water resource availability as well as climate impacts on water availability, electricity demand, and electricity system performance. Capacity expansion portfolios and water resource implications from 2010 to 2050 are shown at high spatial resolution under a series of climate scenarios. Results demonstrate the importance of water availability for future electric sector capacity planning and operations, especially under more extreme hotter and drier climate scenarios. In addition, region-specific changes in electricity demand and water resources require region-specific responses that depend on local renewable resource availability and electricity market conditions. Climate change and the associated impacts on water availability and temperature can affect the types of power plants that are built, their location, and their impact on regional water resources.

Analytical steady-state solutions for water-limited cropping systems using saline irrigation water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaggs, T. H.; Anderson, R. G.; Corwin, D. L.; Suarez, D. L.

2014-12-01

Due to the diminishing availability of good quality water for irrigation, it is increasingly important that irrigation and salinity management tools be able to target submaximal crop yields and support the use of marginal quality waters. In this work, we present a steady-state irrigated systems modeling framework that accounts for reduced plant water uptake due to root zone salinity. Two explicit, closed-form analytical solutions for the root zone solute concentration profile are obtained, corresponding to two alternative functional forms of the uptake reduction function. The solutions express a general relationship between irrigation water salinity, irrigation rate, crop salt tolerance, crop transpiration, and (using standard approximations) crop yield. Example applications are illustrated, including the calculation of irrigation requirements for obtaining targeted submaximal yields, and the generation of crop-water production functions for varying irrigation waters, irrigation rates, and crops. Model predictions are shown to be mostly consistent with existing models and available experimental data. Yet the new solutions possess advantages over available alternatives, including: (i) the solutions were derived from a complete physical-mathematical description of the system, rather than based on an ad hoc formulation; (ii) the analytical solutions are explicit and can be evaluated without iterative techniques; (iii) the solutions permit consideration of two common functional forms of salinity induced reductions in crop water uptake, rather than being tied to one particular representation; and (iv) the utilized modeling framework is compatible with leading transient-state numerical models.

Integrating a distributed hydrological model and SEEA-Water for improving water account and water allocation management under a climate change context.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jauch, Eduardo; Almeida, Carina; Simionesei, Lucian; Ramos, Tiago; Neves, Ramiro

2015-04-01

The crescent demand and situations of water scarcity and droughts are a difficult problem to solve by water managers, with big repercussions in the entire society. The complexity of this question is increased by trans-boundary river issues and the environmental impacts of the usual adopted solutions to store water, like reservoirs. To be able to answer to the society requirements regarding water allocation in a sustainable way, the managers must have a complete and clear picture of the present situation, as well as being able to understand the changes in the water dynamics both in the short and long time period. One of the available tools for the managers is the System of Environmental-Economic Accounts for Water (SEEA-Water), a subsystem of SEEA with focus on water accounts, developed by the United Nations Statistical Division (UNSD) in collaboration with the London Group on Environmental Accounting, This system provides, between other things, with a set of tables and accounts for water and water related emissions, organizing statistical data making possible the derivation of indicators that can be used to assess the relations between economy and environment. One of the main issues with the SEEA-Water framework seems to be the requirement of large amounts of data, including field measurements of water availability in rivers/lakes/reservoirs, soil and groundwater, as also precipitation, irrigation and other water sources and uses. While this is an incentive to collecting and using data, it diminishes the usefulness of the system on countries where this data is not yet available or is incomplete, as it can lead to a poor understanding of the water availability and uses. Distributed hydrological models can be used to fill missing data required by the SEEA-Water framework. They also make it easier to assess different scenarios (usually soil use, water demand and climate changes) for a better planning of water allocation. In the context of the DURERO project (www.durero.eu), the hydrological model MOHID LAND (www.mohid.com) was used to model the Douro river basin providing information to the SEEA-Water system for the Portuguese side of the basin. The model was also used to model the Tâmega river watershed, a sub-basin of the Douro basin, with different climate change scenarios, using the results to build the SEEA-Water accounts for this pilot river basin. The aim of the present work was to understand the potential of the integration of a distributed hydrological model with the SEEA-Water framework and how this can help improving water allocation management and water account under a climate change context.

Evaluating the State of Water Management in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz Partida, Jose Pablo; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; Diaz Gomez, Romina

2017-04-01

Water resource modeling tools have been developed for many different regions and sub-basins of the Rio Grande/Bravo (RGB). Each of these tools has specific objectives, whether it is to explore drought mitigation alternatives, conflict resolution, climate change evaluation, tradeoff and economic synergies, water allocation, reservoir operations, or collaborative planning. However, there has not been an effort to integrate different available tools, or to link models developed for specific reaches into a more holistic watershed decision-support tool. This project outlines promising next steps to meet long-term goals of improved decision support tools and modeling. We identify, describe, and synthesize water resources management practices in the RGB basin and available water resources models and decision support tools that represent the RGB and the distribution of water for human and environmental uses. The extent body of water resources modeling is examined from a perspective of environmental water needs and water resources management and thereby allows subsequent prioritization of future research and monitoring needs for the development of river system modeling tools. This work communicates the state of the RGB science to diverse stakeholders, researchers, and decision-makers. The products of this project represent a planning tool to support an integrated water resources management framework to maximize economic and social welfare without compromising vital ecosystems.

Modeling of water treatment plant using timed continuous Petri nets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurul Fuady Adhalia, H.; Subiono, Adzkiya, Dieky

2017-08-01

Petri nets represent graphically certain conditions and rules. In this paper, we construct a model of the Water Treatment Plant (WTP) using timed continuous Petri nets. Specifically, we consider that (1) the water pump always active and (2) the water source is always available. After obtaining the model, the flow through the transitions and token conservation laws are calculated.

Predicting available water of soil from particle-size distribution and bulk density in an oasis-desert transect in northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Danfeng; Gao, Guangyao; Shao, Ming'an; Fu, Bojie

2016-07-01

A detailed understanding of soil hydraulic properties, particularly the available water content of soil, (AW, cm3 cm-3), is required for optimal water management. Direct measurement of soil hydraulic properties is impractical for large scale application, but routinely available soil particle-size distribution (PSD) and bulk density can be used as proxies to develop various prediction functions. In this study, we compared the performance of the Arya and Paris (AP) model, Mohammadi and Vanclooster (MV) model, Arya and Heitman (AH) model, and Rosetta program in predicting the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) at 34 points with experimental SWCC data in an oasis-desert transect (20 × 5 km) in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. The idea of the three models emerges from the similarity of the shapes of the PSD and SWCC. The AP model, MV model, and Rosetta program performed better in predicting the SWCC than the AH model. The AW determined from the SWCCs predicted by the MV model agreed better with the experimental values than those derived from the AP model and Rosetta program. The fine-textured soils were characterized by higher AW values, while the sandy soils had lower AW values. The MV model has the advantages of having robust physical basis, being independent of database-related parameters, and involving subclasses of texture data. These features make it promising in predicting soil water retention at regional scales, serving for the application of hydrological models and the optimization of soil water management.

Evaluation of SWAT for estimating ET in irrigated and dryland cropping systems in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic models such as SWAT are used extensively for predicting water availability and water quality responses to alternative management practices. Modeling results have been used by regulatory agencies for developing remedial measures for impaired water bodies and for water planning purposes. Ho...

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

A leader-follower-interactive method for regional water resources management with considering multiple water demands and eco-environmental constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yizhong; Lu, Hongwei; Li, Jing; Ren, Lixia; He, Li

2017-05-01

This study presents the mathematical formulation and implementations of a synergistic optimization framework based on an understanding of water availability and reliability together with the characteristics of multiple water demands. This framework simultaneously integrates a set of leader-followers-interactive objectives established by different decision makers during the synergistic optimization. The upper-level model (leader's one) determines the optimal pollutants discharge to satisfy the environmental target. The lower-level model (follower's one) accepts the dispatch requirement from the upper-level one and dominates the optimal water-allocation strategy to maximize economic benefits representing the regional authority. The complicated bi-level model significantly improves upon the conventional programming methods through the mutual influence and restriction between the upper- and lower-level decision processes, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple completing users. To solve the problem, a bi-level interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making process for measuring to what extent the constraints are met and the objective reaches its optima. The capabilities of the proposed model are illustrated through a real-world case study of water resources management system in the district of Fengtai located in Beijing, China. Feasible decisions in association with water resources allocation, wastewater emission and pollutants discharge would be sequentially generated for balancing the objectives subject to the given water-related constraints, which can enable Stakeholders to grasp the inherent conflicts and trade-offs between the environmental and economic interests. The performance of the developed bi-level model is enhanced by comparing with single-level models. Moreover, in consideration of the uncertainty in water demand and availability, sensitivity analysis and policy analysis are employed for identifying their impacts on the final decisions and improving the practical applications.

Implications of water constraints for electricity capacity expansion in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Iyer, G.; Forman, B. A.

2017-12-01

U.S. electricity generation is vulnerable to water supply since water is required for cooling. Constraints on the availability of water will therefore necessitate adaptive planning by the power generation sector. Hence, it is important to integrate restrictions in water availability in electricity capacity planning in order to better understand the economic viability of alternative capacity planning options. The study of the implications of water constraints for the U.S. power generation system is limited in terms of scale and robustness. We extend previous studies by including physical water constraints in a state-level model of the U.S. energy system embedded within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA). We focus on the implications of such constraints for the U.S. electricity capacity expansion, integrating both supply and demand effects under a consistent framework. Constraints on the availability of water have two general effects across the U.S. First, water availability constraints increase the cost of electricity generation, resulting in reduced electrification of end-use sectors. Second, water availability constraints result in forced retirements of water-intensive technologies such as thermoelectric coal- and gas- fired technologies before the end of their natural lifetimes. The demand for electricity is then met by an increase in investments in less water-dependent technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaic. Our results show that the regional patterns of the above effects are heterogeneous across the U.S. In general, the impacts of water constraints on electricity capacity expansion are more pronounced in the West than in the East. This is largely because of lower water availability in the West compared to the East due to lower precipitation in the Western states. Constraints on the availability of water might also have important implications for U.S. electricity trade. For example, under severe constraints on the availability of water, some states flip from being net exporters of electricity to becoming net importers and vice versa. Our study demonstrates the impacts of water availability constraints on electricity capacity expansion in the U.S. and highlights the need to integrate such constraints into decision-making so as to better understand state-level challenges.

Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

PubMed

Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

2015-04-21

Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

Optimal Dynamics of Intermittent Water Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lieb, Anna; Wilkening, Jon; Rycroft, Chris

2014-11-01

In many urban areas of the developing world, piped water is supplied only intermittently, as valves direct water to different parts of the water distribution system at different times. The flow is transient, and may transition between free-surface and pressurized, resulting in complex dynamical features with important consequences for water suppliers and users. These consequences include degradation of distribution system components, compromised water quality, and inequitable water availability. The goal of this work is to model the important dynamics and identify operating conditions that mitigate certain negative effects of intermittent water supply. Specifically, we will look at valve parameters occurring as boundary conditions in a network model of transient, transition flow through closed pipes. Optimization will be used to find boundary values to minimize pressure gradients and ensure equitable water availability.

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

DOE PAGES

Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; ...

2017-09-11

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resourcesmore » in the form of total runoff.« less

The Influence of Climate Change on Irrigated Water Demands and Surface Water Availability of the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T. J.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Balancing irrigated water demands and surface water availability is critical for sustainable water resources management. In China, irrigation is the largest water user, and there is concern that irrigated water demands will be affected by climate change. If the relationship between climate change, irrigated water demands and surface water availability is quantified, then effective measures can be developed to maintain food production while ensuring water sustainability. This research focuses on the Yellow River, the second longest in China, and analyzes the impact of historical and projected climate change on agricultural water demands and surface water availability. Corn and wheat are selected as representative crops to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitin changes on irrigated water demands. The VIC model is used to simulate daily streamflow throughout the Yellow River, providing estimates of surface water availability. Overall, results indicate the irrigated water need and surface water availability are impacted by climate change, with spatially varying impacts depending on spatial patterns of climate trends and river network position. This research provides insight into water security in the Yellow River basin, indicating where water efficiency measures are needed and where they are not.

Diel plant water use and competitive soil cation exchange interact to enhance NH 4 + and K + availability in the rhizosphere

DOE PAGES

Espeleta, Javier F.; Cardon, Zoe G.; Mayer, K. Ulrich; ...

2016-11-12

Hydro-biogeochemical processes in the rhizosphere regulate nutrient and water availability, and thus ecosystem productivity. We hypothesized that two such processes often neglected in rhizosphere models — diel plant water use and competitive cation exchange — could interact to enhance availability of K + and NH 4 +, both high-demand nutrients. A rhizosphere model with competitive cation exchange was used to investigate how diel plant water use (i.e., daytime transpiration coupled with no nighttime water use, with nighttime root water release, and with nighttime transpiration) affects competitive ion interactions and availability of K + and NH 4 +. Competitive cation exchangemore » enabled lowdemand cations that accumulate against roots (Ca 2+, Mg 2+, Na +) to desorb NH 4 + and K + from soil, generating non-monotonic dissolved concentration profiles (i.e. ‘hotspots’ 0.1–1 cm from the root). Cation accumulation and competitive desorption increased with net root water uptake. Daytime transpiration rate controlled diel variation in NH 4 + and K + aqueous mass, nighttime water use controlled spatial locations of ‘hotspots’, and day-to-night differences in water use controlled diel differences in ‘hotspot’ concentrations. Finally, diel plant water use and competitive cation exchange enhanced NH 4 + and K + availability and influenced rhizosphere concentration dynamics. Demonstrated responses have implications for understanding rhizosphere nutrient cycling and plant nutrient uptake.« less

Water Availability in a Warming World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminzade, Jennifer

As climate warms during the 21st century, the resultant changes in water availability are a vital issue for society, perhaps even more important than the magnitude of warming itself. Yet our climate models disagree in their forecasts of water availability, limiting our ability to plan accordingly. This thesis investigates future water availability projections from Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs), primarily using two water availability measures: soil moisture and the Supply Demand Drought Index (SDDI). Chapter One introduces methods of measuring water availability and explores some of the fundamental differences between soil moisture, SDDI and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). SDDI and PDSI tend to predict more severe future drought conditions than soil moisture; 21st century projections of SDDI show conditions rivaling North American historic mega-droughts. We compare multiple potential evapotranspiration (EP) methods in New York using input from the GISS Model ER GCM and local station data from Rochester, NY, and find that they compare favorably with local pan evaporation measurements. We calculate SDDI and PDSI values using various EP methods, and show that changes in future projections are largest when using EP methods most sensitive to global warming, not necessarily methods producing EP values with the largest magnitudes. Chapter Two explores the characteristics and biases of the five GCMs and their 20th and 21st century climate projections. We compare atmospheric variables that drive water availability changes globally, zonally, and geographically among models. All models show increases in both dry and wet extremes for SDDI and soil moisture, but increases are largest for extreme drying conditions using SDDI. The percentage of gridboxes that agree on the sign of change of soil moisture and SDDI between models is very low, but does increase in the 21st century. Still, differences between models are smaller than differences between SDDI and soil moisture projections. Chapter Three addresses the three major differences between SDDI and soil moisture calculations that shed light on why their future projections diverge: evaporation approximations, dependence on previous months' conditions, and the inclusion of additional variables such as runoff. We implement various changes in SDDI and a GCM vegetation scheme to test the sensitivity of each measure and to evaluate which alterations increase the similarity between SDDI and soil moisture. In addition to deconstructing the differences between SDDI and soil moisture, we analyze their projections regionally in Chapter Four. In seven regions (the southwest U.S., southern Europe, eastern China, eastern Siberia, Australia, Uruguay and Colombia), we (1) assess the forecasts of future water availability changes, (2) compare the atmospheric dynamical processes that produce rainfall and drought in the real world to the way it occurs in individual GCMs, (3) determine how these processes change as global temperatures increase, and (4) identify the most likely scenarios for future regional water availability. Chapter Five summarizes key findings by chapter, enumerating this dissertation's contributions to the field. It then discusses the limitations of existing models and measures, and suggests potential solutions for overcoming their predictive shortfalls. Finally, the chapter concludes with a proposal for future research to expand upon this dissertation work. This thesis highlights the global and zonal differences between two water availability measures, SDDI and soil moisture and identifies regions where they agree and disagree in 21st century modeled scenarios. It provides an explanation for differing projections in soil moisture and SDDI and proves that it is possible to bring convergence to their future projections, which is also applicable to PDSI. Finally, a detailed analysis of climatic changes from five GCMs made it possible to present the most likely scenarios for 21st century water availability in seven regions.

Preliminary groundwater flow model of the basin-fill aquifers in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys, Mohave County, northwestern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Garner, Bradley D.; Truini, Margot

2013-01-01

Preliminary numerical models were developed to simulate groundwater flow in the basin-fill alluvium in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys in northwestern Arizona. The purpose of this exercise was to gather and evaluate available information and data, to test natural‑recharge concepts, and to indicate directions for improving future regional groundwater models of the study area. Both steady-state and transient models were developed with a single layer incorporating vertically averaged hydraulic properties over the model layer. Boundary conditions for the models were constant-head cells along the northern and western edges of the study area, corresponding to the location of the Colorado River, and no-flow boundaries along the bedrock ridges that bound the rest of the study area, except for specified flow where Truxton Wash enters the southern end of Hualapai Valley. Steady-state conditions were simulated for the pre-1935 period, before the construction of Hoover Dam in the northwestern part of the model area. Two recharge scenarios were investigated using the steady-state model—one in which natural aquifer recharge occurs directly in places where water is available from precipitation, and another in which natural aquifer recharge from precipitation occurs in the basin-fill alluvium that drains areas of available water. A transient model with 31 stress periods was constructed to simulate groundwater flow for the period 1935–2010. The transient model incorporates changing Colorado River, Lake Mead, and Lake Mohave water levels and includes time-varying groundwater withdrawals and aquifer recharge. Both the steady-state and transient models were calibrated to available water-level observations in basin-fill alluvium, and simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the study area.

Competing effects of groundwater withdrawals and climate change on water availability in semi-arid India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sishodia, R. P.; Shukla, S.

2017-12-01

India, a global leader in groundwater use (250 km3/yr), is experiencing groundwater depletion. There has been a 130-fold increase in number of irrigation wells since 1960. Anticipated future increase in groundwater demand is likely to exacerbate the water availability in the semi-arid regions of India. Depending on the direction of change, future climate change may either worsen or enhance the water availability. This study uses an integrated hydrologic modeling approach (MIKE SHE MIKE 11) to compare and combine the effects of future (2040-2069) increased groundwater withdrawals and climate change on surface and groundwater flows and availability for an agricultural watershed in semi-arid south India. Modeling results showed that increased groundwater withdrawals in the future resulted in reduced surface flows (25%) and increased frequency and duration (90 days/yr) of well drying. In contrast, projected future increase in rainfall (7-43%) under the changed climate showed increased groundwater recharge (15-67%) and surface flows (9-155%). Modeling results suggest that the positive effects of climate change may enhance the water availability in this semi-arid region of India. However, in combination with increased withdrawals, climate change was shown to increase the well drying and reduce the water availability especially during dry years. A combination of management options such as flood to drip conversion, energy subsidy reductions and water storage can support increased groundwater irrigated area in the future while mitigating the well drying. A cost-benefit analysis showed that dispersed water storage and flood to drip conversion can be highly cost-effective in this semi-arid region. The study results suggest that the government and management policies need to be focused towards an integrated management of demand and supply to create a sustainable food-water-energy nexus in the region.

Estimating postfire water production in the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Donald F. Potts; David L. Peterson; Hans R. Zuuring

1989-01-01

Two hydrologic models were adapted to estimate postfire changer in water yield in Pacific Northwest watersheds. The WRENSS version of the simulation model PROSPER is used for hydrologic regimes dominated by rainfall: it calculates water available for streamflow onthe basis of seasonal precipitation and leaf area index. The WRENSS version of the simulation model WATBAL...

Analysis of Water Use and Water Scarcity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samayoa, S. D.

2017-12-01

Analysis of Water Use and Water Scarcity in Arid and Semi-arid Regions Susana Samayoa , Muhammed A. G. Chowdhury, Tushar Sinha Department of Environmental Engineering, Texas A & M University - Kingsville Freshwater sustainability in arid and semi-arid regions is highly uncertain under increasing demands due to population growth and urban development as well as limited water supply. In particular, six largest cities by population among the top twenty U.S. cities are located in Texas (TX), which also experience high variability in water availability due to frequent droughts and floods. Similarly, several regions in Arizona (AZ) are rapidly growing (e.g. Phoenix and Tucson) despite receiving scanty rainfall. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze water use and water scarcity in watersheds within TX and AZ between 1985 and 2010. The water use data from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is analyzed by Hydrological Unit Code (HUC) - 8 within TX and AZ. Total freshwater use by county during 1985 and 2010 were converted into water use by HUC-8 using geospatial analysis. Water availability will be estimated by using a large scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model will be calibrated and validated for multiple basins located in Texas and Arizona. The VIC model simulated total streamflow will be aggregated across the 1/8 degree grids that are within each HUC-8 to estimate water supply. The excess water for upstream HUC-8s (= local supply minus demands) will be routed, in addition to locally generated streamflow, to estimate water availability in downstream HUC-8s. Water Scarcity Index, defined as the ratio of total freshwater demand to supply, will be estimated during 1985 and 2010 to evaluate the effects of water availability and demands on scarcity. Finally, water scarcity and use will be analyzed by HUC-8s within TX and AZ. Such information could be useful in water resources management and planning. Keywords: Water scarcity, water use, water supply, VIC

Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishiwa, Peter; Nobert, Joel; Kongo, Victor; Ndomba, Preksedis

2018-05-01

This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16-18 % in 2050s relative to 1980-1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 °C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

On the use of satellite data to implement a parsimonious ecohydrological model in the upper Ewaso Ngiro river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Pérez, G.

2015-12-01

Drylands are extensive, covering 30% of the Earth's land surface and 50% of Africa. Projections of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) indicate that the extent of these regions have high probability to increase with a considerable additional impact on water resources, which should be taken into account by water management plans. In these water-controlled areas, vegetation plays a key role in the water cycle. Ecohydrological models provide a tool to investigate the relationships between vegetation and water resources. However, studies in Africa often face the problem that many ecohydrological models have quite extensive parametrical requirements, while available data are scarce. Therefore, there is a need for assessments using models whose requirements match the data availability. In that context, parsimonious models, together with available remote sensing information, can be valuable tools for ecohydrological studies. For this reason, we have focused on the use of a parsimonious model based on the amount of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by green vegetation (APAR) and the Light Use Efficiency index (the efficiency by which that radiation is converted to plant biomass increment) in order to compute the gross primary production (GPP).This model has been calibrated using only remote sensing data (particularly, NDVI data from Modis products) in order to explore the potential of satellite information in implementing a simple distributed model. The model has been subsequently validated against stream flow data with the aim to define a tool able to account for landuse characteristics in describing water budget. Results are promising for studies aimed at the description of the consequences of ongoing land use changes on water resources.

Constraining uncertainties in water supply reliability in a tropical data scarce basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Rodriguez, Erasmo; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

Assessing the water supply reliability in river basins is essential for adequate planning and development of irrigated agriculture and urban water systems. In many cases hydrological models are applied to determine the surface water availability in river basins. However, surface water availability and variability is often not appropriately quantified due to epistemic uncertainties, leading to water supply insecurity. The objective of this research is to determine the water supply reliability in order to support planning and development of irrigated agriculture in a tropical, data scarce environment. The approach proposed uses a simple hydrological model, but explicitly includes model parameter uncertainty. A transboundary river basin in the tropical region of Colombia and Venezuela with an approximately area of 2100 km² was selected as a case study. The Budyko hydrological framework was extended to consider climatological input variability and model parameter uncertainty, and through this the surface water reliability to satisfy the irrigation and urban demand was estimated. This provides a spatial estimate of the water supply reliability across the basin. For the middle basin the reliability was found to be less than 30% for most of the months when the water is extracted from an upstream source. Conversely, the monthly water supply reliability was high (r>98%) in the lower basin irrigation areas when water was withdrawn from a source located further downstream. Including model parameter uncertainty provides a complete estimate of the water supply reliability, but that estimate is influenced by the uncertainty in the model. Reducing the uncertainty in the model through improved data and perhaps improved model structure will improve the estimate of the water supply reliability allowing better planning of irrigated agriculture and dependable water allocation decisions.

Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

PubMed

Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

2010-04-01

This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on the maximization of water benefits, over time and space. A parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach is used. This gives a projection of future water scarcity in the different locations and an estimation of the associated direct economic losses from unsatisfied demands. This generic hydroeconomic model can be easily applied to large-scale regions, in particular developing regions where little reliable data is available. We will present an application to Algeria, up to the 2050 horizon.

Consequences of Groundwater Development on Water Resources of Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotzoll, K.; Izuka, S. K.; El-Kadi, A. I.

2017-12-01

The availability of fresh groundwater for human use is limited by whether the impacts of withdrawals are deemed acceptable by community stakeholders and water-resource managers. Quantifying the island-wide hydrologic impacts of withdrawal—saltwater intrusion, water-table decline, and reduction of groundwater discharge to streams, nearshore environments and downgradient groundwater bodies—is thus a key step for assessing fresh groundwater availability in Hawai`i. Groundwater-flow models of the individual islands of Kaua`i, O`ahu, and Maui were constructed using MODFLOW 2005 with the Seawater-Intrusion Package (SWI2). Consistent model construction among the islands, calibration, and analysis were streamlined using Python scripts. Results of simulating historical withdrawals from Hawai`i's volcanic aquifers show that the types and magnitudes of impacts that can limit fresh groundwater availability vary among each islands' unique hydrogeologic settings. In high-permeability freshwater-lens aquifers, saltwater intrusion and reductions in coastal groundwater discharge are the principal consequences of withdrawals that can limit groundwater availability. In dike-impounded groundwater and thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, reduced groundwater discharge to streams, water-table decline, or reduced flows to adjacent freshwater-lens aquifers can limit fresh groundwater availability. The numerical models are used to quantify and delineate the spatial distribution of these impacts for the three islands. The models were also used to examine how anticipated changes in groundwater recharge and withdrawals will affect fresh groundwater availability in the future.

Improvement in estimation of soil water deficit by integrating airborne imagery data into a soil water balance modelents into a soil water

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this paper, an approach that integrates airborne imagery data as inputs was used to improve the estimation of soil water deficit (SWD) for maize and sunflower grown under full and deficit irrigation treatments. The proposed model was applied to optimize the maximum total available soil water (TAW...

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM atmore » the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.« less

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Calvin, K.

2014-08-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model - namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) - is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Global water dynamics: issues for the 21st century.

PubMed

Simonovic, Slobodan P

2002-01-01

The WorldWater system dynamics model has been developed for modeling the global world water balance and capturing the dynamic character of the main variables affecting water availability and use in the future. Despite not being a novel approach, system dynamics offers a new way of addressing complex systems. WorldWater simulations are clearly demonstrating the strong feedback relation between water availability and different aspects of world development. Results of numerous simulations are contradictory to the assumption made by many global modelers that water is not an issue on the global scale. Two major observations can be made from early simulations: (a) the use of clean water for dilution and transport of wastewater, if not dealt with in other ways, imposes a major stress on the global world water balance; and (b) water use by different sectors is demonstrating quite different dynamics than predicted by classical forecasting tools and other water-models. Inherent linkages between water quantity and quality sectors with food, industry, persistent pollution, technology, and non-renewable resources sectors of the model create shoot and collapse behavior in water use dynamics. This paper discusses a number of different water-related scenarios and their implications on the global water balance. In particular, two extreme scenarios (business as usual - named "Chaos", and unlimited desalination - named "Ocean") are presented in the paper. Based on the conclusions derived from these two extreme cases a set of more moderate and realistic scenarios (named "Conservation") is proposed and their consequences on the global water balance are evaluated.

Incorporating agricultural management into an earth system model for the Pacific Northwest region: Interactions between climate, hydrology, agriculture, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Rajagopalan, K.; Barber, M. E.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.; Marsh, T.; Yoder, J.

2011-12-01

For better management and decision making in the face of climate change, earth system models must explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural management activities. Including crop system, water management, and economic models into an earth system modeling framework can help in answering questions related to the impacts of climate change on irrigation water and crop productivity, how agricultural producers can adapt to anticipated climate change, and how agricultural practices can mitigate climate change. Herein we describe the coupling of the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, which solves the water and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle at regional scales, with a crop-growth model, CropSyst. This new model, VIC-CropSyst, is the land surface model that will be used in a new regional-scale model development project focused on the Pacific Northwest, termed BioEarth. Here we describe the VIC-CropSyst coupling process and its application over the Columbia River basin (CRB) using agricultural-specific land cover information. The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) and U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layers were used to identify agricultural land use patterns, in which both irrigated and dry land crops were simulated. The VIC-CropSyst model was applied over the CRB for the historical period of 1976 - 2006 to establish a baseline for surface water availability, irrigation demand, and crop production. The model was then applied under future (2030s) climate change scenarios derived from statistically-downscaled Global Circulation Models output under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). Differences between simulated future and historical irrigation demand, irrigation water availability, and crop production were used in an economics model to identify the most economically-viable future cropping pattern. The economics model was run under varying scenarios of regional growth, trade, water pricing, and water capacity providing a spectrum of possible future cropping patterns. The resulting cropping patterns were then used in VIC-CropSyst to quantify the impacts of climate change, economic, and water management scenarios on crop production, and water resources availability. This modeling framework provides opportunities to study the interactions between human activities and complex natural processes and is a valuable tool for inclusion in an earth system model with the goal of informing land use and water management.

Drought, Land-Use Change, and Water Availability in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faunt, C. C.; Sneed, M.; Traum, J.

2015-12-01

The Central Valley is a broad alluvial-filled structural trough that covers about 52,000 square kilometers and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. Because the valley is semi-arid and the availability of surface water varies substantially from year to year, season to season, and from north to south, agriculture developed a reliance on groundwater for irrigation. During recent drought periods (2007-09 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased due to a combination of factors including drought and land-use changes. In response, groundwater levels have declined to levels approaching or below historical low levels. In the San Joaquin Valley, the southern two thirds of the Central Valley, the extensive groundwater pumpage has caused aquifer system compaction, resulting in land subsidence and permanent loss of groundwater storage capacity. The magnitude and rate of subsidence varies based on geologic materials, consolidation history, and historical water levels. Spatially-variable subsidence has changed the land-surface slope, causing operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for surface-water infrastructure. It is important for water agencies to plan for the effects of continued water-level declines, storage losses, and/or land subsidence. To combat these effects, excess surface water, when available, is artificially recharged. As surface-water availability, land use, and artificial recharge continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of the aquifer system. Modeling tools, such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the analysis and evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence, while also optimizing water availability. These analyses will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.

Significance of exchanging SSURGO and STATSGO data when modeling hydrology in diverse physiographic terranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Taylor, Charles J.; Newson, Jeremy K.

2013-01-01

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a TOPMODEL-based hydrologic model that depends on spatially accurate soils data to function in diverse terranes. In Kentucky, this includes mountainous regions, karstic plateau, and alluvial plains. Soils data are critical because they quantify the space to store water, as well as how water moves through the soil to the stream during storm events. We compared how the model performs using two different sources of soils data--Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) and State Soil Geographic Database laboratory data (STATSGO)--for 21 basins ranging in size from 17 to 1564 km2. Model results were consistently better when SSURGO data were used, likely due to the higher field capacity, porosity, and available-water holding capacity, which cause the model to store more soil-water in the landscape and improve streamflow estimates for both low- and high-flow conditions. In addition, there were significant differences in the conductivity multiplier and scaling parameter values that describe how water moves vertically and laterally, respectively, as quantified by TOPMODEL. We also evaluated whether partitioning areas that drain to streams via sinkholes in karstic basins as separate hydrologic modeling units (HMUs) improved model performance. There were significant differences between HMUs in properties that control soil-water storage in the model, although the effect of partitioning these HMUs on streamflow simulation was inconclusive.

A parsimonious dynamic model for river water quality assessment.

PubMed

Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

2010-01-01

Water quality modelling is of crucial importance for the assessment of physical, chemical, and biological changes in water bodies. Mathematical approaches to water modelling have become more prevalent over recent years. Different model types ranging from detailed physical models to simplified conceptual models are available. Actually, a possible middle ground between detailed and simplified models may be parsimonious models that represent the simplest approach that fits the application. The appropriate modelling approach depends on the research goal as well as on data available for correct model application. When there is inadequate data, it is mandatory to focus on a simple river water quality model rather than detailed ones. The study presents a parsimonious river water quality model to evaluate the propagation of pollutants in natural rivers. The model is made up of two sub-models: a quantity one and a quality one. The model employs a river schematisation that considers different stretches according to the geometric characteristics and to the gradient of the river bed. Each stretch is represented with a conceptual model of a series of linear channels and reservoirs. The channels determine the delay in the pollution wave and the reservoirs cause its dispersion. To assess the river water quality, the model employs four state variables: DO, BOD, NH(4), and NO. The model was applied to the Savena River (Italy), which is the focus of a European-financed project in which quantity and quality data were gathered. A sensitivity analysis of the model output to the model input or parameters was done based on the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology. The results demonstrate the suitability of such a model as a tool for river water quality management.

Impact of root growth and root hydraulic conductance on water availability of young walnut trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerszurki, Daniela; Couvreur, Valentin; Hopmans, Jan W.; Silva, Lucas C. R.; Shackel, Kenneth A.; de Souza, Jorge L. M.

2015-04-01

Walnut (Juglans regia L.) is a tree species of high economic importance in the Central Valley of California. This crop has particularly high water requirements, which makes it highly dependent on irrigation. The context of decreasing water availability in the state calls for efficient water management practices, which requires improving our understanding of the relationship between water application and walnut water availability. In addition to the soil's hydraulic conductivity, two plant properties are thought to control the supply of water from the bulk soil to the canopy: (i) root distribution and (ii) plant hydraulic conductance. Even though these properties are clearly linked to crop water requirements, their quantitative relation remains unclear. The aim of this study is to quantitatively explain walnut water requirements under water deficit from continuous measurements of its water consumption, soil and stem water potential, root growth and root system hydraulic conductance. For that purpose, a greenhouse experiment was conducted for a two month period. Young walnut trees were planted in transparent cylindrical pots, equipped with: (i) rhizotron tubes, which allowed for non-invasive monitoring of root growth, (ii) pressure transducer tensiometers for soil water potential, (iii) psychrometers attached to non-transpiring leaves for stem water potential, and (iv) weighing scales for plant transpiration. Treatments consisted of different irrigation rates: 100%, 75% and 50% of potential crop evapotranspiration. Plant responses were compared to predictions from three simple process-based soil-plant-atmosphere models of water flow: (i) a hydraulic model of stomatal regulation based on stem water potential and vapor pressure deficit, (ii) a model of plant hydraulics predicting stem water potential from soil-root interfaces water potential, and (iii) a model of soil water depletion predicting the water potential drop between the bulk soil and soil-root interfaces. These models were combined to a global optimization algorithm to obtain parameters that best fit the observed soil-plant-atmosphere water dynamics. Eventually, relations between root system conductance and growth as well as water access strategies were quantitatively analyzed.

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Ritchie, Andre; Boyce, Scott E.; Ferguson, Ian; Galanter, Amy; Flint, Lorraine E.; Henson, Wesley

2018-05-31

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation.This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP.The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region.Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows.Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model and Water-Availability Analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Ritchie, Andre; Boyce, Scott E.; Galanter, Amy E.; Ferguson, Ian A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Henson, Wesley R.

2018-05-31

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation.This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP.The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region.Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows.Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

2015-08-01

We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

Comparison of GEANT4 very low energy cross section models with experimental data in water.

PubMed

Incerti, S; Ivanchenko, A; Karamitros, M; Mantero, A; Moretto, P; Tran, H N; Mascialino, B; Champion, C; Ivanchenko, V N; Bernal, M A; Francis, Z; Villagrasa, C; Baldacchin, G; Guèye, P; Capra, R; Nieminen, P; Zacharatou, C

2010-09-01

The GEANT4 general-purpose Monte Carlo simulation toolkit is able to simulate physical interaction processes of electrons, hydrogen and helium atoms with charge states (H0, H+) and (He0, He+, He2+), respectively, in liquid water, the main component of biological systems, down to the electron volt regime and the submicrometer scale, providing GEANT4 users with the so-called "GEANT4-DNA" physics models suitable for microdosimetry simulation applications. The corresponding software has been recently re-engineered in order to provide GEANT4 users with a coherent and unique approach to the simulation of electromagnetic interactions within the GEANT4 toolkit framework (since GEANT4 version 9.3 beta). This work presents a quantitative comparison of these physics models with a collection of experimental data in water collected from the literature. An evaluation of the closeness between the total and differential cross section models available in the GEANT4 toolkit for microdosimetry and experimental reference data is performed using a dedicated statistical toolkit that includes the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. The authors used experimental data acquired in water vapor as direct measurements in the liquid phase are not yet available in the literature. Comparisons with several recommendations are also presented. The authors have assessed the compatibility of experimental data with GEANT4 microdosimetry models by means of quantitative methods. The results show that microdosimetric measurements in liquid water are necessary to assess quantitatively the validity of the software implementation for the liquid water phase. Nevertheless, a comparison with existing experimental data in water vapor provides a qualitative appreciation of the plausibility of the simulation models. The existing reference data themselves should undergo a critical interpretation and selection, as some of the series exhibit significant deviations from each other. The GEANT4-DNA physics models available in the GEANT4 toolkit have been compared in this article to available experimental data in the water vapor phase as well as to several published recommendations on the mass stopping power. These models represent a first step in the extension of the GEANT4 Monte Carlo toolkit to the simulation of biological effects of ionizing radiation.

Relative controls of natural and socio-economic drivers on water availability over India: an exploratory modelling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, A.; Singh, R.; Kumar, R.

2017-12-01

India, a water stressed nation with an estimated per capita water availability of 1500m3/year/person, is projected to surpass China in population to become the most populous country by 2022. This increasing population will further exacerbate the water stress, which will also vary due to climate and land use change. Here, we quantify the relative controls on per capita water availability from climatic, non-climatic and socio-economic factors. We achieve this by using several definitions of per capita water availability and accounting for virtual water trade transfer. Our exploratory analysis employs the recently developed probabilistic Budyko framework modified to account for inter-regional virtual water trade. We find that the Indo-Gangetic plains and Southeastern parts of India emerge as vulnerable regions where a growing population will lead to a drastic reduction in per capita water availability. The proposed framework can serve as a prototype for understanding the relative importance of socio-economic interventions versus water infrastructure or demand reduction investments.

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE): A new concept for ecosystem production

DOE PAGES

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; ...

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUEmore » (i.e., “declining marginal returns”); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., “inverse feedback”). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. Furthermore, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.« less

Multiple Resource Use Efficiency (mRUE): A New Concept for Ecosystem Production.

PubMed

Han, Juanjuan; Chen, Jiquan; Miao, Yuan; Wan, Shiqiang

2016-11-21

The resource-driven concept, which is an important school for investigating ecosystem production, has been applied for decades. However, the regulatory mechanisms of production by multiple resources remain unclear. We formulated a new algorithm model that integrates multiple resource uses to study ecosystem production and tested its applications on a water-availability gradient in semi-arid grassland. The result of our experiment showed that changes in water availability significantly affected the resources of light and nitrogen, and altered the relationships among multiple resource absorption rate (ε), multiple resource use efficiency (mRUE), and available resource (R avail ). The increased water availability suppressed ecosystem mRUE (i.e., "declining marginal returns"); The changes in mRUE had a negative effect on ε (i.e., "inverse feedback"). These two processes jointly regulated that the stimulated single resource availability would promote ecosystem production rather than suppress it, even when mRUE was reduced. This study illustrated the use of the mRUE model in exploring the coherent relationships among the key parameters on regulating the ecosystem production for future modeling, and evaluated the sensitivity of this conceptual model under different dataset properties. However, this model needs extensive validation by the ecological community before it can extrapolate this method to other ecosystems in the future.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Water, Energy, and Food Nexus: Modeling of Inter-Basin Resources Trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIm, T. W.; Kang, D.; Wicaksono, A.; Jeong, G.; Jang, B. J.; Ahn, J.

2016-12-01

The water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus is an emerging issue in the concern of fulfilling the human requirements with a lack of available resources. The WEF nexus concept arises to develop a sustainable resources planning and management. In the concept, the three valuable resources (i.e. water, energy, and food) are inevitably interconnected thus it becomes a challenge for researchers to understand the complicated interdependency. A few studies have been committed for interpreting and implementing the WEF nexus using a computer based simulation model. Some of them mentioned that a trade-off is one alternative solution that can be taken to secure the available resources. Taking a concept of inter-basin water transfer, this study attempts to introduce an idea to develop a WEF nexus model for inter-basin resources trading simulation. Using the trading option among regions (e.g., cities, basins, or even countries), the model provides an opportunity to increase overall resources availability without draining local resources. The proposed model adopted the calculation process of an amount of water, energy, and food from a nation-wide model, with additional input and analysis process to simulate the resources trading between regions. The proposed model is applied for a hypothetic test area in South Korea for demonstration purposes. It is anticipated that the developed model can be a decision tool for efficient resources allocation for sustainable resources management. Acknowledgements This study was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

THE STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL (SWMM) AND RELATED WATERSHED TOOLS DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. It is the only publicly available model capable of performing a comprehensiv...

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change.

PubMed

McCluney, Kevin E; Belnap, Jayne; Collins, Scott L; González, Angélica L; Hagen, Elizabeth M; Nathaniel Holland, J; Kotler, Burt P; Maestre, Fernando T; Smith, Stanley D; Wolf, Blair O

2012-08-01

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one-third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population-level plant-plant, plant-herbivore, and predator-prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant-plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant-herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator-prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population-density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top-down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Analyzing water resources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Report on water resources discusses problems in water measurement demand, use, and availability. Also discussed are sensing accuracies, parameter monitoring, and status of forecasting, modeling, and future measurement techniques.

The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

2012-12-01

We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total renewable freshwater available in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, 20% and 27% of the global population in years 2050 and 2095, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of renewable water available in a year (i.e., WSI > 1.0). We also investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water demand and compare them to the contribution of socioeconomic drivers both globally and regionally. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. With more stringent climate mitigation targets, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

2014-12-01

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50% during intensifying drought scenarios, which can have broader electricity sector system implications. Results relevant to stakeholder and power provider interests highlight the vulnerabilities in grid operations driven by water shortage agreements and changes in the climate.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Espeleta, Javier F.; Cardon, Zoe G.; Mayer, K. Ulrich

Hydro-biogeochemical processes in the rhizosphere regulate nutrient and water availability, and thus ecosystem productivity. We hypothesized that two such processes often neglected in rhizosphere models — diel plant water use and competitive cation exchange — could interact to enhance availability of K + and NH 4 +, both high-demand nutrients. A rhizosphere model with competitive cation exchange was used to investigate how diel plant water use (i.e., daytime transpiration coupled with no nighttime water use, with nighttime root water release, and with nighttime transpiration) affects competitive ion interactions and availability of K + and NH 4 +. Competitive cation exchangemore » enabled lowdemand cations that accumulate against roots (Ca 2+, Mg 2+, Na +) to desorb NH 4 + and K + from soil, generating non-monotonic dissolved concentration profiles (i.e. ‘hotspots’ 0.1–1 cm from the root). Cation accumulation and competitive desorption increased with net root water uptake. Daytime transpiration rate controlled diel variation in NH 4 + and K + aqueous mass, nighttime water use controlled spatial locations of ‘hotspots’, and day-to-night differences in water use controlled diel differences in ‘hotspot’ concentrations. Finally, diel plant water use and competitive cation exchange enhanced NH 4 + and K + availability and influenced rhizosphere concentration dynamics. Demonstrated responses have implications for understanding rhizosphere nutrient cycling and plant nutrient uptake.« less

Pond and Irrigation Model (PIM): a tool for simultaneously evaluating pond water availability and crop irrigation demand

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Gary Feng; Theodor D. Leininger; John Read; Johnie N. Jenkins

2018-01-01

Agricultural ponds are an important alternative source of water for crop irrigation to conserve surface and ground water resources. In recent years more such ponds have been constructed in Mississippi and around the world. There is currently, however, a lack of a tool to simultaneously estimate crop irrigation demand and pond water availability. In this study, a Pond-...

Estimation of groundwater use for a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas, 1864-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Luukkonen, Carol L.; Rachol, Cynthia M.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, at the request of Congress, is assessing the availability and use of the Nation's water resources to help characterize how much water is available now, how water availability is changing, and how much water can be expected to be available in the future. The Great Lakes Basin Pilot project of the U.S. Geological Survey national assessment of water availability and use focused on the Great Lakes Basin and included detailed studies of the processes governing water availability in the Great Lakes Basin. One of these studies included the development of a groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin. This report describes the compilation and estimation of the groundwater withdrawals in those areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois that were needed for the Lake Michigan Basin study groundwater-flow model. These data were aggregated for 12 model time intervals spanning 1864 to 2005 and were summarized by model area, model subregion, category of water use, aquifer system, aquifer type, and hydrogeologic unit model layer. The types and availability of information on groundwater withdrawals vary considerably among states because water-use programs often differ in the types of data collected and in the methods and frequency of data collection. As a consequence, the methods used to estimate and verify the data also vary. Additionally, because of the different sources of data and different terminologies applied for the purposes of this report, the water-use data published in this report may differ from water-use data presented in other reports. These data represent only a partial estimate of groundwater use in each state because estimates were compiled only for areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois within the Lake Michigan Basin model area. Groundwater-withdrawal data were compiled for both nearfield and farfield model areas in Wisconsin and Illinois, whereas these data were compiled primarily for the nearfield model area in Michigan and Indiana. Overall water use for the selected areas in Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois was less during early time intervals than during more recent intervals, with large increases beginning around the 1960s. Total estimated groundwater withdrawals for model input range from 18.01 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for interval 1 (1864-1900) to 1,280.25 Mgal/d for interval 12 (2001-5). Withdrawals for the public-supply category make up the majority of the withdrawals in each of the four states. In Wisconsin and Michigan, the second largest withdrawals are for the irrigation category; in Indiana and Illinois, industrial withdrawals account for the second largest withdrawal amounts. The smallest withdrawals are for miscellaneous uses in Wisconsin and irrigation uses in Indiana and Illinois. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in the Southern Lower Peninsula of Michigan, Northeastern Illinois, and the farfield model area are generally larger than in the other model subregions. Withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the Quaternary aquifer system, whereas withdrawals in Illinois are predominantly from the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Withdrawals in Wisconsin are about equal from the Quaternary and Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer systems. Estimated groundwater withdrawals in Michigan and Indiana are predominantly from the unconfined unconsolidated aquifer type. Withdrawals in Illinois are largely from the deep confined bedrock aquifer type, although they decreased considerably in more recent time intervals. Wisconsin withdrawals are about equal from unconfined unconsolidated and deep confined bedrock aquifer types. Groundwater-withdrawal estimates in Wisconsin were compiled for the 47 easternmost counties within the boundary of the Lake Michigan Basin model, of which 32 counties, though not entirely contained, are at least partly within the Lake Michigan Basin. Overall, 6,457 withdrawal locations were estima

BLAM (Benthic Light Availability Model): A Proposed Model of Hydrogeomorphic Controls on Light in Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Julian, J. P.; Doyle, M. W.; Stanley, E. H.

2006-12-01

Light is vital to the dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. It drives photosynthesis and photochemical reactions, affects thermal structure, and influences behavior of aquatic biota. Despite the fundamental role of light to riverine ecosystems, light studies in rivers have been mostly neglected because i) boundary conditions (e.g., banks, riparian vegetation) make ambient light measurements difficult, and ii) the optical water quality of rivers is highly variable and difficult to characterize. We propose a benthic light availability model (BLAM) that predicts the percent of incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) available at the river bed. BLAM was developed by quantifying light attenuation of the five hydrogeomorphic controls that dictate riverine light availability: topography, riparian vegetation, channel geometry, optical water quality, and water depth. BLAM was calibrated using hydrogeomorphic data and light measurements from two rivers: Deep River - a 5th-order, turbid river in central North Carolina, and Big Spring Creek - a 2nd-order, optically clear stream in central Wisconsin. We used a series of four PAR sensors to measure i) above-canopy PAR, ii) PAR above water surface, iii) PAR below water surface, and iv) PAR on stream bed. These measurements were used to develop empirical light attenuation coefficients, which were then used in combination with optical water quality measurements, shading analyses, channel surveys, and flow records to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in riverine light availability. Finally, we apply BLAM to the Baraboo River - a 6th-order, 120-mile, unimpounded river in central Wisconsin - in order to characterize light availability along the river continuum (from headwaters to mouth).

A Framework Predicting Water Availability in a Rapidly Growing, Semi-Arid Region under Future Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Benner, S. G.; Glenn, N. F.; Lindquist, E.; Dahal, K. R.; Bolte, J.; Vache, K. B.; Flores, A. N.

2014-12-01

Climate change can lead to dramatic variations in hydrologic regime, affecting both surface water and groundwater supply. This effect is most significant in populated semi-arid regions where water availability are highly sensitive to climate-induced outcomes. However, predicting water availability at regional scales, while resolving some of the key internal variability and structure in semi-arid regions is difficult due to the highly non-linearity relationship between rainfall and runoff. In this study, we describe the development of a modeling framework to evaluate future water availability that captures elements of the coupled response of the biophysical system to climate change and human systems. The framework is built under the Envision multi-agent simulation tool, characterizing the spatial patterns of water demand in the semi-arid Treasure Valley area of Southwest Idaho - a rapidly developing socio-ecological system where urban growth is displacing agricultural production. The semi-conceptual HBV model, a population growth and allocation model (Target), a vegetation state and transition model (SSTM), and a statistically based fire disturbance model (SpatialAllocator) are integrated to simulate hydrology, population and land use. Six alternative scenarios are composed by combining two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with three population growth and allocation scenarios (Status Quo, Managed Growth, and Unconstrained Growth). Five-year calibration and validation performances are assessed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Irrigation activities are simulated using local water rights. Results show that in all scenarios, annual mean stream flow decreases as the projected rainfall increases because the projected warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Seasonal maximum stream flow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions due to the earlier peak of snow melting. The aridity index and water deficit generally increase in the irrigated area. The most sensitive area is along the Boise Foothill which is the transitioning zone from water deficit to water abundant. However, these trends vary significantly between scenarios in space and time. The outcome of the study will serve as a reference for local stakeholders to make decisions on future land use.

Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

2015-04-01

Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate data from the GCMs participating in the CMIP5 at 0.5° x 0.5° resolution. Data cover the time period from 1901 to 2099, i.e. the historical period, and future projections for all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). We used four different models output (GFDL, HADGEMES, MIROC, and IPSL) for all RCPs for near (2006-2035) and far (3065-2099) future. Multi-model ensembles (16 scenarios) are then used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on fresh water availability across Europe.

Construction of estimated flow- and load-duration curves for Kentucky using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Unthank, Michael D.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Williamson, Tanja N.; Nelson, Hugh L.

2012-01-01

Flow- and load-duration curves were constructed from the model outputs of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) application for streams in Kentucky. The WATER application was designed to access multiple geospatial datasets to generate more than 60 years of statistically based streamflow data for Kentucky. The WATER application enables a user to graphically select a site on a stream and generate an estimated hydrograph and flow-duration curve for the watershed upstream of that point. The flow-duration curves are constructed by calculating the exceedance probability of the modeled daily streamflows. User-defined water-quality criteria and (or) sampling results can be loaded into the WATER application to construct load-duration curves that are based on the modeled streamflow results. Estimates of flow and streamflow statistics were derived from TOPographically Based Hydrological MODEL (TOPMODEL) simulations in the WATER application. A modified TOPMODEL code, SDP-TOPMODEL (Sinkhole Drainage Process-TOPMODEL) was used to simulate daily mean discharges over the period of record for 5 karst and 5 non-karst watersheds in Kentucky in order to verify the calibrated model. A statistical evaluation of the model's verification simulations show that calibration criteria, established by previous WATER application reports, were met thus insuring the model's ability to provide acceptably accurate estimates of discharge at gaged and ungaged sites throughout Kentucky. Flow-duration curves are constructed in the WATER application by calculating the exceedence probability of the modeled daily flow values. The flow-duration intervals are expressed as a percentage, with zero corresponding to the highest stream discharge in the streamflow record. Load-duration curves are constructed by applying the loading equation (Load = Flow*Water-quality criterion) at each flow interval.

A GIS cost model to assess the availability of freshwater, seawater, and saline groundwater for algal biofuel production in the United States.

PubMed

Venteris, Erik R; Skaggs, Richard L; Coleman, Andre M; Wigmosta, Mark S

2013-05-07

A key advantage of using microalgae for biofuel production is the ability of some algal strains to thrive in waters unsuitable for conventional crop irrigation such as saline groundwater or seawater. Nonetheless, the availability of sustainable water supplies will provide significant challenges for scale-up and development of algal biofuels. We conduct a partial techno-economic assessment based on the availability of freshwater, saline groundwater, and seawater for use in open pond algae cultivation systems. We explore water issues through GIS-based models of algae biofuel production, freshwater supply (constrained to less than 5% of mean annual flow per watershed) and costs, and cost-distance models for supplying seawater and saline groundwater. We estimate that, combined, these resources can support 9.46 × 10(7) m(3) yr(-1) (25 billion gallons yr(-1)) of renewable biodiesel production in the coterminous United States. Achievement of larger targets requires the utilization of less water efficient sites and relatively expensive saline waters. Despite the addition of freshwater supply constraints and saline water resources, the geographic conclusions are similar to our previous results. Freshwater availability and saline water delivery costs are most favorable for the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, where evaporation relative to precipitation is moderate. As a whole, the barren and scrub lands of the southwestern U.S. have limited freshwater supplies, and large net evaporation rates greatly increase the cost of saline alternatives due to the added makeup water required to maintain pond salinity. However, this and similar analyses are particularly sensitive to knowledge gaps in algae growth/lipid production performance and the proportion of freshwater resources available, key topics for future investigation.

Conceptual model to assess water use associated with the life cycle of unconventional oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valder, Joshua F.; McShane, Ryan R.; Barnhart, Theodore B.; Sando, Roy; Carter, Janet M.; Lundgren, Robert F.

2018-03-15

As the demand for energy increases in the United States, so does the demand for water used to produce many forms of that energy. Technological advances, limited access to conventional oil and gas accumulations, and the rise of oil and gas prices resulted in increased development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) accumulations. Unconventional oil and gas is developed using a method that combines directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques, allowing for greater oil and gas production from previously unrecoverable reservoirs. Quantification of the water resources required for UOG development and production is difficult because of disparate data sources, variable reporting requirements across boundaries (local, State, and national), and incomplete or proprietary datasets.A topical study was started in 2015 under the U.S. Geological Survey’s Water Availability and Use Science Program, as part of the directive in the Secure Water Act for the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a National Water Census, to better understand the relation between production of UOG resources for energy and the amount of water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development in the United States. The Water Availability and Use Science Program goal for this topical study is to develop and apply a statistical model to better estimate the water use associated with UOG development, regardless of the location and target geologic formation. As a first step, a conceptual model has been developed to characterize the life cycle of water use in areas of UOG development.Categories of water use and the way water-use data are collected might change over time; therefore, a generic approach was used in developing the conceptual model to allow for greater flexibility in adapting to future changes or newly available data. UOG development can be summarized into four stages: predrilling construction, drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and ongoing production. The water used in UOG production can be categorized further as direct, indirect, or ancillary water use. Direct water use is defined as the water used for drilling and hydraulic fracturing a well and for maintaining the well during ongoing production. Indirect water use is defined as the water used at or near a well pad. The water used for dust abatement also is considered an indirect use but may be applied away from the well pad. Ancillary water use is defined as the additional local or regional water use resulting from a change (for example, population) directly related to UOG development throughout the life cycle that is not used directly in the well or indirectly for any other purpose at the well pad.The conceptual model presented in this report consists of five elements: (1) input data, (2) processes, (3) decisions, (4) output data, and (5) outcomes. The input data requirements for estimating water use associated with UOG development are somewhat onerous, and obtaining suitable datasets can be challenging because local, State, and Federal agencies do not collect data similarly. The quality of a water-use assessment that uses the conceptual model presented in this report is dependent on the quality and quantity of data that are available for a UOG play. The conceptual model can be used for an assessment with sparse data; however, having sparse data likely will result in greater uncertainty in the water-use estimates.The conceptual model presented in this report is designed to be robust to characterize and simulate the data processing to estimate water use associated with UOG development. Although the results of an analysis that includes missing data have greater uncertainty, the analysis still can be insightful because it can establish a baseline estimate of UOG water use that may be refined further as more data become available. Analysis of models that include missing data also could aid in identifying the data most needed for future water-use estimates. Characterizing individual model limitations is important because the conceptual model can be used in future water-use studies to facilitate data compiling, data processing, estimating, and assessing UOG activities regardless of location.

Water Resource Assessment in KRS Reservoir Using Remote Sensing and GIS Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manubabu, V. H.; Gouda, K. C.; Bhat, N.; Reddy, A.

2014-12-01

In the recent time the fresh water resource becomes very important because of various reasons like population growth, pollution, over exploitation of the ground water resources etc. As there is no efficient and proper measures for recharging ground water exists and also the climatological impacts on water resources like global warming exacerbating water shortages, growing populations and rising demand for freshwater in agriculture, industry, and energy production. There is a need and challenging task for analyzing the future changes in regional water availability and it is also very much necessary to asses and predict the fresh water present in a lake or reservoir to make better decision making in the optimal usage of surface water. In the present study is intended to provide a practical discussion of methodology that deals with how to asses and predict amount of surface water available in the future using Remote Sensing(RS) data , Geographical Information System(GIS) techniques, and GCM (Global Circulation Model). Basically the study emphasized over one of the biggest reservoir i.e. the Krishna Raja Sagara (KRS) reservoir situated in the state of Karnataka in India. Multispectral satellite images like IRS LISS III and Landsat L8 from different open source web portals like NRSC-Bhuvan and NASA Earth Explorer respectively are used for the present analysis. The multispectral satellite images are used to identify the temporal changes of the water quantity in the reservoir for the period 2000 to 2014. Also the water volume are being calculated using Advances Space born Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global DEM over the reservoir basin. The hydro meteorological parameters are also studied using multi-source observed data and the empirical water budget models for the reservoir in terms of rainfall, temperature, run off, water inflow and outflow etc. are being developed and analyzed. Statistical analysis are also carried out to quantify the relation between reservoir water volume and the hydrological parameters (Figure 1). A general circulation model (GCM) is used for the prediction of major hydro meteorological parameters like rainfall and using the GCM predictions the water availability in terms of water volume in future are simulated using the empirical water budget model.

Simulation of the water balance of boreal watersheds of northeastern British Columbia, Canada using MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadzadesahraei, S.; Déry, S.; Rex, J. F.

2016-12-01

Northeastern British Columbia (BC) is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction, largely depending on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (fracking), which relies on available freshwater. Even though this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. Further, BC statistics predict that the northeastern region's population will increase by 30% over the next 25 years, thereby amplifying the demands of domestic and industrial water usage. Hence, given the increasing demands for surface water in the complex wetlands of northeastern BC, obtaining accurate long-term water balance information is of vital importance. Thus, this study aims to simulate the 1979-2014 water balance at two boreal watersheds using the MIKE SHE model. More specifically, this research intends to quantify the historical, and regional, water budgets and their associated hydrological processes at two boreal watersheds—the Coles Lake and Tsea Lake watersheds—in northeastern BC. The development of coupled groundwater and surface water model of these watersheds are discussed. The model setup, calibration process, and results are presented, focusing on the water balance of boreal watersheds. Hydrological components within these watersheds are quantified through a combination of intensive fieldwork, observational data, analysis and numerical modeling. The output from the model provides important information for decision makers to manage water resources in northeastern BC. Keywords: Northeastern BC; boreal watershed; water balance; MIKE SHE hydrological model.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Vevay Township area, Ingham County, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Simard, Andreanne

2004-01-01

Ground water is the primary source of water for domestic, public-supply, and industrial use within the Tri-County region that includes Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties in Michigan. Because of the importance of this ground-water resource, numerous communities, including the city of Mason in Ingham County, have begun local Wellhead Protection Programs. In these programs, communities protect their groundwater resource by identifying the areas that contribute water to production wells and potential sources of contamination, and by developing methods to manage and minimize threats to the water supply. In addition, some communities in Michigan are concerned about water availability, particularly in areas experiencing water-level declines in the vicinity of quarry dewatering operations. In areas where Wellhead Protection Programs are implemented and there are potential threats to the water supply, residents and communities need adequate information to protect the water supply.In 1996, a regional ground-water-flow model was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to simulate ground-water flow in Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties. This model was developed primarily to simulate the bedrock ground-waterflow system; ground-water flow in the unconsolidated glacial sediments was simulated to support analysis of flow in the underlying bedrock Saginaw aquifer. Since its development in 1996, regional model simulations have been conducted to address protection concerns and water availability questions of local water-resources managers. As a result of these continuing model simulations, additional hydrogeologic data have been acquired in the Tri-County region that has improved the characterization of the simulated ground-water-flow system and improved the model calibration. A major benefit of these updates and refinements is that the regional Tri-County model continues to be a useful tool that improves the understanding of the ground-water-flow system in the Tri-County region, provides local water-resources managers with a means to answer ground-water protection and availability questions, and serves as an example that can be applied in other areas of the state.A refined version of the 1996 Tri-County regional ground-water-flow model, developed in 1997, was modified with local hydrogeologic information in the Vevay Township area in Michigan. This model, updated in 2003 for this study, was used to simulate ground-water flow to address groundwater protection and availability questions in Vevay Township. The 2003 model included refinement of glacial and bedrock hydraulic characteristics, better representation of the degree of connection between the glacial deposits and the underlying Saginaw aquifer, and refinement of the model cell size.The 2003 model was used to simulate regional groundwater flow, to delineate areas contributing recharge and zones of contribution to production wells in the city of Mason, and to simulate the effects of present and possible future withdrawals. The areal extent of the 10- and 40-year areas contributing recharge and the zones of contribution for the city of Mason's production wells encompass about 2.3 and 6.2 square miles, respectively. Simulation results, where withdrawals for quarry operations were represented by one well pumping at 1.6 million gallons per day, indicate that water levels would decline slightly over 1 foot approximately 2 miles from the quarry in the glacial deposits and in the Saginaw aquifer. With a reduction of the local riverbed conductance or removal of local river model cells representing Mud Creek, water-level declines would extend further west of Mud Creek and further to the north, east, and south of the simulated quarry. Simulation results indicate that water withdrawn for quarry dewatering operations would decrease ground-water recharge to nearby Mud Creek, would increase ground-water discharge from Mud Creek, and that local water levels would be lowered as a result.

Surface-water quality in agricultural watersheds of the North Carolina Coastal Plain associated with concentrated animal feeding operations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Stephen L.

2015-01-01

A classification tree model was developed to examine relations of watershed environmental attributes among the study sites with and without CAFO manure effects. Model results indicated that variations in swine barn density, percentage of wetlands, and total acres available for applying swine-waste manures had an important influence on those watersheds where CAFO effects on water quality were either evident or mitigated. Measurable effects of CAFO waste manures on stream water quality were most evident in those SW and SP watersheds having lower percentages of wetlands combined with higher swine barn densities and (or) higher total acres available for applying waste manure at the swine CAFOs. Stream water quality was similar to background agricultural conditions in SW and SP watersheds with lower swine barn densities coupled with higher percentages of wetlands or lower acres available for swine manure applications. The model provides a useful tool for exploring and identifying similar, unmonitored watersheds in the North Carolina Coastal Plain with potential CAFO manure influences on water quality that might warrant further examination.

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran

The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoffmore » through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.« less

R package CityWaterBalance | Science Inventory | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CityWaterBalance provides a reproducible workflow for studying an urban water system. The network of urban water flows and storages can be modeled and visualized. Any city may be modeled with preassembled data, but data for US cities can be gathered via web services using this package and dependencies, geoknife and dataRetrieval. Urban water flows are difficult to comprehensively quantify. Although many important data sources are openly available, they are published by a variety of agencies in different formats, units, spatial and temporal resolutions. Increasingly, open data are made available via web services, which allow for automated, current retrievals. Integrating data streams and estimating the values of unmeasured urban water flows, however, remains needlessly time-consuming. In order to streamline a reproducible analysis, we have developed the CityWaterBalance package for the open source R language. The CityWaterBalance package for R is based on a simple model of the network of urban water flows and storages. The model may be run with data that has been pre-assembled by the user, or data can be retrieved by functions in CityWaterBalance and dependencies. CityWaterBalance can be used to quickly assemble a quantitative portrait of any urban water system. The systemic effects of water management decisions can be readily explored. Much of the data acquisition process for US cities can already be automated, while the package serves as a place-hold

Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

PubMed

Sun, Wenchao; Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan

2014-01-01

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

Improved soil water deficit estimation through the integration of canopy temperature measurements into a soil water balance model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Correct prediction of the dynamics of total available water in the root zone (TAWr) is critical for irrigation management as shown in the soil water balance model presented in FAO paper 56 (Allen et al., 1998). In this study, we propose a framework to improve TAWr estimation by incorporating the cro...

Probabilistic Water Availability Prediction in the Rio Grande Basin using Large-scale Circulation Indices as Precursor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khedun, C. P.; Mishra, A. K.; Giardino, J. R.; Singh, V. P.

2011-12-01

Hydrometeorological conditions, and therefore water availability, is affected by large-scale circulation indices. In the Rio Grande, which is a transboundary basin shared between the United States and Mexico, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence local hydrological conditions. Different sub-regions of the basin exhibit varying degrees of correlation, but in general, an increase (decrease) in runoff during El Niños (La Niñas) is noted. Positive PDO enhances the effect of El Niño and dampens the negative effect of La Niña, and when it is in its neutral/transition phase, La Niña dominates climatic conditions and reduces water availability. Further, lags of up to 3 months have been found between ENSO and precipitation in the basin. We hypothesize that (1) a trivariate statistical relationship can be established between the two climate indices and water availability, and (2) the relationship can be used to predict water availability based on projected PDO and ENSO conditions. We use copula to establish the dependence between climate indices and water availability. Water availability is generated from Noah land surface model (LSM), forced with the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2). The model is run within NASA GSFC's Land Information System. LSM generated runoff gives a more realistic picture of available surface water as it is not affected by anthropogenic changes, such as the construction of dams, diversions, and other land use land cover changes, which may obscure climatic influences. Marginals from climate indices and runoff are from different distribution families, thus conventional functional forms of multivariate frequency distributions cannot be employed. Copulas offer a viable alternative as marginals from different families can be combined into a joint distribution. Uncertainties in the statistical relationship can be determined and the statistical model can be used for prediction purposes. The outcome of the study can provide advanced warning on the expected state of surface water, based on projected ENSO and PDO conditions. Such warning may help trigger drought management plans in both the US and Mexico for example, and ensure the long-term sustainable management of water in the basin.

Uncertainty analyses of the calibrated parameter values of a water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rode, M.; Suhr, U.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.

2003-04-01

For river basin management water quality models are increasingly used for the analysis and evaluation of different management measures. However substantial uncertainties exist in parameter values depending on the available calibration data. In this paper an uncertainty analysis for a water quality model is presented, which considers the impact of available model calibration data and the variance of input variables. The investigation was conducted based on four extensive flowtime related longitudinal surveys in the River Elbe in the years 1996 to 1999 with varying discharges and seasonal conditions. For the model calculations the deterministic model QSIM of the BfG (Germany) was used. QSIM is a one dimensional water quality model and uses standard algorithms for hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics in running waters, e.g. Michaelis Menten/Monod kinetics, which are used in a wide range of models. The multi-objective calibration of the model was carried out with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. The results show that for individual flow time related measuring surveys very good agreements between model calculation and measured values can be obtained. If these parameters are applied to deviating boundary conditions, substantial errors in model calculation can occur. These uncertainties can be decreased with an increased calibration database. More reliable model parameters can be identified, which supply reasonable results for broader boundary conditions. The extension of the application of the parameter set on a wider range of water quality conditions leads to a slight reduction of the model precision for the specific water quality situation. Moreover the investigations show that highly variable water quality variables like the algal biomass always allow a smaller forecast accuracy than variables with lower coefficients of variation like e.g. nitrate.

Incorporating soil variability in continental soil water modelling: a trade-off between data availability and model complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peeters, L.; Crosbie, R. S.; Doble, R.; van Dijk, A. I. J. M.

2012-04-01

Developing a continental land surface model implies finding a balance between the complexity in representing the system processes and the availability of reliable data to drive, parameterise and calibrate the model. While a high level of process understanding at plot or catchment scales may warrant a complex model, such data is not available at the continental scale. This data sparsity is especially an issue for the Australian Water Resources Assessment system, AWRA-L, a land-surface model designed to estimate the components of the water balance for the Australian continent. This study focuses on the conceptualization and parametrization of the soil drainage process in AWRA-L. Traditionally soil drainage is simulated with Richards' equation, which is highly non-linear. As general analytic solutions are not available, this equation is usually solved numerically. In AWRA-L however, we introduce a simpler function based on simulation experiments that solve Richards' equation. In the simplified function soil drainage rate, the ratio of drainage (D) over storage (S), decreases exponentially with relative water content. This function is controlled by three parameters, the soil water storage at field capacity (SFC), the drainage fraction at field capacity (KFC) and a drainage function exponent (β). [ ] D- -S- S = KF C exp - β (1 - SFC ) To obtain spatially variable estimates of these three parameters, the Atlas of Australian Soils is used, which lists soil hydraulic properties for each soil profile type. For each soil profile type in the Atlas, 10 days of draining an initially fully saturated, freely draining soil is simulated using HYDRUS-1D. With field capacity defined as the volume of water in the soil after 1 day, the remaining parameters can be obtained by fitting the AWRA-L soil drainage function to the HYDRUS-1D results. This model conceptualisation fully exploits the data available in the Atlas of Australian Soils, without the need to solve the non-linear Richards' equation for each time-step. The spatial distribution of long term recharge and baseflow obtained with a 30 year simulation of historic data using this parameterisation, corresponds well with the spatial patterns of groundwater recharge inferred from field measurements.

Modeling Subsurface Hydrology in Floodplains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Cristina M.; Dritschel, David G.; Singer, Michael B.

2018-03-01

Soil-moisture patterns in floodplains are highly dynamic, owing to the complex relationships between soil properties, climatic conditions at the surface, and the position of the water table. Given this complexity, along with climate change scenarios in many regions, there is a need for a model to investigate the implications of different conditions on water availability to riparian vegetation. We present a model, HaughFlow, which is able to predict coupled water movement in the vadose and phreatic zones of hydraulically connected floodplains. Model output was calibrated and evaluated at six sites in Australia to identify key patterns in subsurface hydrology. This study identifies the importance of the capillary fringe in vadose zone hydrology due to its water storage capacity and creation of conductive pathways. Following peaks in water table elevation, water can be stored in the capillary fringe for up to months (depending on the soil properties). This water can provide a critical resource for vegetation that is unable to access the water table. When water table peaks coincide with heavy rainfall events, the capillary fringe can support saturation of the entire soil profile. HaughFlow is used to investigate the water availability to riparian vegetation, producing daily output of water content in the soil over decadal time periods within different depth ranges. These outputs can be summarized to support scientific investigations of plant-water relations, as well as in management applications.

Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Michael T. Hobbins; Jorge A. Ramirez

2008-01-01

Available water supply across the contiguous 48 states was estimated as precipitation minus evapotranspiration using data for the period 1953-1994. Precipitation estimates were taken from the Parameter- Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Evapotranspiration was estimated using two models, the Advection-Aridity model and the Zhang model. The...

Optimal allocation of bulk water supplies to competing use sectors based on economic criterion - An application to the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divakar, L.; Babel, M. S.; Perret, S. R.; Gupta, A. Das

2011-04-01

SummaryThe study develops a model for optimal bulk allocations of limited available water based on an economic criterion to competing use sectors such as agriculture, domestic, industry and hydropower. The model comprises a reservoir operation module (ROM) and a water allocation module (WAM). ROM determines the amount of water available for allocation, which is used as an input to WAM with an objective function to maximize the net economic benefits of bulk allocations to different use sectors. The total net benefit functions for agriculture and hydropower sectors and the marginal net benefit from domestic and industrial sectors are established and are categorically taken as fixed in the present study. The developed model is applied to the Chao Phraya basin in Thailand. The case study results indicate that the WAM can improve net economic returns compared to the current water allocation practices.

COMPILATION OF GROUND WATER MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

The full report presents an overview of currently available computer-based simulation models for ground-water flow, solute and heat transport, and hydrogeochemistry in both porous media and fractured rock. Separate sections address multiphase flow and related chemical species tra...

An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of climate change on crop productivity in a watershed. The first was carried out by the large-scale crop model alone. The second was carried out by the integrated model of the large-scale crop model and the H08 model. The former projected that changes in temperature and precipitation due to future climate change would give rise to increasing the water stress in crops. Nevertheless, the latter projected that the increasing amount of agricultural water resources in the watershed would supply sufficient amount of water for irrigation, consequently reduce the water stress. The integrated model demonstrated the importance of taking into account the water circulation in watershed when predicting the regional crop production.

From policy to practice: implementation of water policies in child care centers in Connecticut.

PubMed

Middleton, Ann E; Henderson, Kathryn E; Schwartz, Marlene B

2013-03-01

Child care policies may contribute to healthy beverage consumption patterns. This study documented availability and accessibility of water and correspondence with state and federal policy and accreditation standards in child care centers. One-day observations were conducted in a random sample of 40 Child and Adult Care Food Program-participating preschool classrooms in Connecticut. Child care centers, center directors, and preschool teachers. Raters observed water availability and teacher behaviors during lunch, physical activity, and in the classroom. National, state, and childcare center water regulations and policies were reviewed. Descriptive statistics present data on water availability, promotion, and modeling. Bivariate relationships between water availability and accreditation status, center water policy, location of physical activity, and verbal promotion were assessed using the Fisher exact test (P < .05). Many centers were in violation of water-promoting policies. Water was available in most classrooms (84%) but was only adult accessible in over half of those classrooms. Water was available during one third of physical activity periods observed. Verbal prompts for children to drink water were few. Support is needed to help centers meet existing water policies and new water requirements included in the 2010 Child Nutrition Reauthorization Act. Copyright © 2013 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water availability drives gas exchange and growth of trees in northeastern US, not elevated CO2 and reduced acid deposition.

PubMed

Levesque, Mathieu; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Pederson, Neil

2017-04-10

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) exhibit high uncertainty about how climate change, elevated atmospheric CO 2 (atm. CO 2 ) concentration, and atmospheric pollutants will impact carbon sequestration in forested ecosystems. Although the individual roles of these environmental factors on tree growth are understood, analyses examining their simultaneous effects are lacking. We used tree-ring isotopic data and structural equation modeling to examine the concurrent and interacting effects of water availability, atm. CO 2 concentration, and SO 4 and nitrogen deposition on two broadleaf tree species in a temperate mesic forest in the northeastern US. Water availability was the strongest driver of gas exchange and tree growth. Wetter conditions since the 1980s have enhanced stomatal conductance, photosynthetic assimilation rates and, to a lesser extent, tree radial growth. Increased water availability seemingly overrides responses to reduced acid deposition, CO 2 fertilization, and nitrogen deposition. Our results indicate that water availability as a driver of ecosystem productivity in mesic temperate forests is not adequately represented in DGVMs, while CO 2 fertilization is likely overrepresented. This study emphasizes the importance to simultaneously consider interacting climatic and biogeochemical drivers when assessing forest responses to global environmental changes.

Coupling biophysical processes and water rights to simulate spatially distributed water use in an intensively managed hydrologic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Bangshuai; Benner, Shawn G.; Bolte, John P.; Vache, Kellie B.; Flores, Alejandro N.

2017-07-01

Humans have significantly altered the redistribution of water in intensively managed hydrologic systems, shifting the spatiotemporal patterns of surface water. Evaluating water availability requires integration of hydrologic processes and associated human influences. In this study, we summarize the development and evaluation of an extensible hydrologic model that explicitly integrates water rights to spatially distribute irrigation waters in a semi-arid agricultural region in the western US, using the Envision integrated modeling platform. The model captures both human and biophysical systems, particularly the diversion of water from the Boise River, which is the main water source that supports irrigated agriculture in this region. In agricultural areas, water demand is estimated as a function of crop type and local environmental conditions. Surface water to meet crop demand is diverted from the stream reaches, constrained by the amount of water available in the stream, the water-rights-appropriated amount, and the priority dates associated with particular places of use. Results, measured by flow rates at gaged stream and canal locations within the study area, suggest that the impacts of irrigation activities on the magnitude and timing of flows through this intensively managed system are well captured. The multi-year averaged diverted water from the Boise River matches observations well, reflecting the appropriation of water according to the water rights database. Because of the spatially explicit implementation of surface water diversion, the model can help diagnose places and times where water resources are likely insufficient to meet agricultural water demands, and inform future water management decisions.

Global assessment of predictability of water availability: A bivariate probabilistic Budyko analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Fu, Jianyu

2018-02-01

Estimating continental water availability is of great importance for water resources management, in terms of maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining society development. To more accurately quantify the predictability of water availability, on the basis of univariate probabilistic Budyko framework, a bivariate probabilistic Budyko approach was developed using copula-based joint distribution model for considering the dependence between parameter ω of Wang-Tang's equation and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and was applied globally. The results indicate the predictive performance in global water availability is conditional on the climatic condition. In comparison with simple univariate distribution, the bivariate one produces the lower interquartile range under the same global dataset, especially in the regions with higher NDVI values, highlighting the importance of developing the joint distribution by taking into account the dependence structure of parameter ω and NDVI, which can provide more accurate probabilistic evaluation of water availability.

A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

2017-04-01

Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land surface model-flood inundation model to produce hydrological variables and indices at daily, 0.25-degree resolution, globally. The system is updated in near real-time (< 2 days) using satellite precipitation and weather model data, and produces forecasts at short-term (out to 7 days) based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) and seasonal (up to 6 months) based on U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts. Climate change projections are based on bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate data that is used to force the hydrological model. Example products from the system include real-time and forecast drought indices for precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, and flood magnitude and extent indices. The model outputs are complemented by satellite based products and indices based on satellite data for vegetation health (MODIS NDVI) and soil moisture (SMAP). We show examples of the validation of the system at regional scales, including how local information can significantly improve predictions, and examples of how the system can be used to understand large-scale water resource issues, and in real-world contexts for early warning, decision making and planning.

Simulations of hydrologic response in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.

2017-12-29

A suite of hydrologic models has been developed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (ACFB) as part of the National Water Census, a U.S. Geological Survey research program that focuses on developing new water accounting tools and assessing water availability and use at the regional and national scales. Seven hydrologic models were developed using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, land cover, and water use on basin hydrology. A coarse-resolution PRMS model was developed for the entire ACFB, and six fine-resolution PRMS models were developed for six subbasins of the ACFB. The coarse-resolution model was loosely coupled with a groundwater model to better assess the effects of water use on streamflow in the lower ACFB, a complex geologic setting with karst features. The PRMS coarse-resolution model was used to provide inputs of recharge to the groundwater model, which in turn provide simulations of groundwater flow that were aggregated with PRMS-based simulations of surface runoff and shallow-subsurface flow. Simulations without the effects of water use were developed for each model for at least the calendar years 1982–2012 with longer periods for the Potato Creek subbasin (1942–2012) and the Spring Creek subbasin (1952–2012). Water-use-affected flows were simulated for 2008–12. Water budget simulations showed heterogeneous distributions of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and storage change across the ACFB. Streamflow volume differences between no-water-use and water-use simulations were largest along the main stem of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee River Basins, with streamflow percentage differences largest in the upper Chattahoochee and Flint River Basins and Spring Creek in the lower Flint River Basin. Water-use information at a shorter time step and a fully coupled simulation in the lower ACFB may further improve water availability estimates and hydrologic simulations in the basin.

Quantifying present and future glacier melt-water contribution to runoff in a Central Himalayan river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasch, M.; Mauser, W.; Weber, M.

2012-10-01

Water supply of most lowland cultures heavily depends on rain and melt-water from the upstream mountains. Especially melt-water release of alpine mountain ranges is usually attributed a pivotal role for the water supply of large downstream regions. Water scarcity is assumed as consequence of glacier shrinkage and possible disappearance due to Global Climate Change, particular for large parts of Central and South East Asia. In this paper, the application and validation of a coupled modeling approach with Regional Climate Model outputs and a process-oriented glacier and hydrological model is presented for a Central Himalayan river basin despite scarce data availability. Current and possible future contributions of ice-melt to runoff along the river network are spatially explicitly shown. Its role among the other water balance components is presented. Although glaciers have retreated and will continue to retreat according to the chosen climate scenarios, water availability is and will be primarily determined by monsoon precipitation and snow-melt. Ice-melt from glaciers is and will be a minor runoff component in summer monsoon-dominated Himalayan river basins.

A Multi-Sector Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change at the Energy-Water-Land Nexus in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McFarland, J.; Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Current and projected water demand and water availability estimates under climate change scenarios in the Weyib River basin in Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-07-01

This study intended to estimate the spatial and temporal variation of current and projected water demand and water availability under climate change scenarios in Weyib River basin, Bale mountainous area of Southeastern Ethiopia. Future downscaled climate variables from three Earth System Models under the three RCP emission scenarios were inputted into ArcSWAT hydrological model to simulate different components of water resources of a basin whereas current and projected human and livestock population of the basin is considered to estimate the total annual water demand for various purposes. Results revealed that the current total annual water demand of the basin is found to be about 289 Mm3, and this has to increase by 83.47% after 15 years, 200.67% after 45 years, and 328.78% after 75 years by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period water demand mainly due to very rapid increasing population (40.81, 130.80, and 229.12% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively) and climatic variability. The future average annual total water availability in the basin is observed to be increased by ranging from 15.04 to 21.61, 20.08 to 23.34, and 16.21 to 39.53% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s time slice, respectively, from base period available water resources (2333.39 Mm3). The current water availability per capita per year of the basin is about 3112.23 m3 and tends to decline ranging from 11.78 to 17.49, 46.02 to 47.45, and 57.18 to 64.34% by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from base period per capita per year water availability. This indicated that there might be possibility to fall the basin under water stress condition in the long term.

Economic Impact of Water Allocation on Agriculture in the Lower Chattahoochee River Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Limaye, Ashutosh S.; Paudel, Krishna P.; Musleh, Fuad; Cruise, James F.; Hatch, L. Upton

2004-01-01

The relative value of irrigation water was assessed for three important crops (corn, cotton, and peanuts) grown in the southeastern United States. A decision tool was developed with the objective of allocating limited available water among competing crops in a manner that would maximize the economic returns to the producers. The methodology was developed and tested for a hypothetical farm located in Henry County, Alabama in the Chattahoochee river basin. Crop yield - soil moisture response functions were developed using Monte Carlo simulated data for cotton, corn, and peanuts. A hydrologic model was employed to simulate runoff over the period of observed rainfall the county to provide inflows to storage facilities that could be used as constraints for the optimal allocation of the available water in the face of the uncertainty of future rainfall and runoff. Irrigation decisions were made on a weekly basis during the critical water deficit period in the region. An economic optimization model was employed with the crop responses, and soil moisture functions to determine the optimum amount of water place on each crop subject to the amount of irrigation water availability and climatic uncertainty. The results indicated even small amounts of irrigation could significantly benefit farmers in the region if applied judiciously. A weekly irrigation sequence was developed that maintained the available water on the crops that exhibited the most significant combination of water sensitivity and cash value.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Application of a Geographic Information System for regridding a ground-water flow model of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Walla Walla River basin, Oregon-Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Darling, M.E.; Hubbard, L.E.

1994-01-01

Computerized Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have become viable and valuable tools for managing,analyzing, creating, and displaying data for three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow models. Three GIS applications demonstrated in this study are: (1) regridding of data arrays from an existing large-area, low resolution ground-water model to a smaller, high resolution grid; (2) use of GIS techniques for assembly of data-input arrays for a ground-water model; and (3) use of GIS for rapid display of data for verification, for checking of ground-water model output, and for the cre.ation of customized maps for use in reports. The Walla Walla River Basin was selected as the location for the demonstration because (1) data from a low resolution ground-water model (Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System Analysis [RASA]) were available and (2) concern for long-term use of water resources for irrigation in the basin. The principal advantage of regridding is that it may provide the ability to more precisely calibrate a model, assuming chat a more detailed coverage of data is available, and to evaluate the numerical errors associated with a particular grid design.Regridding gave about an 8-fold increase in grid-node density.Several FORTRAN programs were developed to load the regridded ground-water data into a finite-difference modular model as model-compatible input files for use in a steady-state model run.To facilitate the checking and validating of the GIS regridding process, maps and tabular reports were produced for each of eight ground-water parameters by model layer. Also, an automated subroutine that was developed to view the model-calculated water levels in cross-section will aid in the synthesis and interpretation of model results.

Distributed modelling of water resources in the Lower Jordan River Basin - from present day variability to suitability for new water sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunkel, Anne; Lange, Jens

2010-05-01

The Middle East is characterized by a high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. As a result, water resources are not reliable and severe drought events are frequent, worsening the natural water scarcity. Single high magnitude events may dominate the water balance of entire seasons - a fact that is poorly represented in the assessments of available water resources that are normally based on long term averages. Therefore, a distributed hydrological model with a high temporal and spatial resolution is applied to the Lower Jordan River basin (LJRB). The focus is hereby to capture the variability of rainfall and to investigate how this signal is amplified in the hydrological cycle in this arid and semi arid environment. Rainfall variability is addressed through a volume scanning rainfall radar providing precipitation data with a resolution of 5 minutes for entire seasons that serves as input to a conceptual hydrological model. The raw radar data recorded by a C-Band system was pre-corrected by a multiple regression approach prior to regionalization to the LJRB, ground truthing with rainfall station data and conditional merging. Despite certain uncertainties, the data documents the accentuated rainfall variability in the entire LJRB. In order to include the full range of present rainfall variability, one average and two extreme seasons (wet and dry) are studied. Hydrological modelling is undertaken with a new modelling tool created by coupling two hydrological models, TRAIN and ZIN, complementing each other in respect to the addressed processes and water fluxes. The resulting modelling tool enables conceptual modelling of the processes relevant for semi-arid / arid environments with a high temporal and spatial resolution. The model is applied to the large scale LJRB (16,000 km²) in order to simulate all components of the water balance for three rainy seasons representing the present climate variability. Under given conditions of low data availability, the results give a basin wide view on the availability of surface water resources without human intervention with a high resolution in time (5 min) and space (up to 250 x 250 m²). The scarcity of water resources in many areas within the region is illustrated and detailed maps of the water balance components reveal spatial pattern of water availability characterizing the different potentials of regions or sub basins for water management options. Moreover, comparing different climate conditions provides valuable information for water management, including insights into the relation between green and blue water. For instance, runoff generation and percolation react stronger to changes in precipitation than evapotranspiration and the changes in runoff and percolation are considerably higher than the differences in rainfall between the three years. This amplification of rainfall variability by the hydrological cycle is significant for water management. Based on the results for current conditions, the impact of different scenarios and management options is analyzed, e.g. the effect of land use changes or the suitability of different regions for rainwater harvesting, one of the urgently needed new water sources.

Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

2016-04-01

In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula). Here the SWAT2012 model was applied to the catchment of Monte Novo and Vigia. The Monte Novo and Vigia reservoirs were selected due to their importance for the district of Évora, respectively for urban water supply and irrigation. The catchment is a multipurpose reservoir system that covers an area of about 81473 ha and drains into the Alqueva reservoir (25.000 ha). The SWAT2012 model was run for 1973-2012. The calibration routines were conducted on a monthly basis using the SWATCUP. The calibration performance rating is expressed by: NSE 0.89, bR² 0.89, Pbias 7.29 (Vigia) and NSE 0.84, bR² 0.83, Pbias 6.29 (Monte Novo). Expected results are a generalized decrease of water availability in the basin, more intense under the scenario RCP 8.5. However the uncertainty related to the use of different climate change models show different outcomes, which may be considered for the strategies to be adopted. We will take advantage of SWAT's automatic calibration capacities to explore how multiple interpretations of present-day hydrological processes could lead to different outputs in future climate scenarios, and compare this uncertainty with other sources of uncertainty related with future scenarios or different outputs from climate models.

A Monthly Water-Balance Model through a Two-Stage Partitioning of Precipitation Quantified by Budyko Equation and Hedging Rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kheimi, M.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Water operating in reservoir system is similar to natural catchment systems in water regulations. The most contributing role in both systems is found to be mitigating of available water deficits from excessive and keeping it away from prolonged droughts. In this paper, Bodyko equation and hedging rule are presented by two stage portioning monthly water balance model. The first stage is the partitioning of precipitation to evapotranspiration (E) plus future storage (S1) and runoff (Q); the second stage is using hedging rule where evapotranspiration and future storage to be recognized by a tradeoff between evapotranspiration and future water storage. The model introduces a linear two point hedging parameters: starting water availability (y1) and ending of water availability (y2).The calibration of the model is based on five parameters: three derived from Budyko equation (S0, ξ, and Yp) and two from hedging rule (y1 and y2).The catchment climate zone along with its physical properties have an effect on the degree of hedging. The y1 and y2 parameters are indicators of the amount of hedging in dry and wet zones. The span between the starting point (y1) and ending point (y2) of hedging indicate there is hedging against future evapotranspiration shortage. Observation of 187 catchments was examined using this model concept for the period of 21 years starting from 1983 to 2003. After calibration and validation using a genetic algorithm it shows that hedging effect in catchment against future evapotranspiration shortages exists with an abundance of hedging effect in dry areas more than wet areas.

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

PubMed Central

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008–09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability. PMID:26804492

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective.

PubMed

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-25

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Global effects of local food-production crises: a virtual water perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

By importing food and agricultural goods, countries cope with the heterogeneous global water distribution and often rely on water resources available abroad. The virtual displacement of the water used to produce such goods (known as virtual water) connects together, in a global water system, all countries participating to the international trade network. Local food-production crises, having social, economic or environmental origin, propagate in this network, modifying the virtual water trade and perturbing local and global food availability, quantified in terms of virtual water. We analyze here the possible effects of local crises by developing a new propagation model, parsimonious but grounded on data-based and statistically-verified assumptions, whose effectiveness is proved on the Argentinean crisis in 2008-09. The model serves as the basis to propose indicators of crisis impact and country vulnerability to external food-production crises, which highlight that countries with largest water resources have the highest impact on the international trade, and that not only water-scarce but also wealthy and globalized countries are among the most vulnerable to external crises. The temporal analysis reveals that global average vulnerability has increased over time and that stronger effects of crises are now found in countries with low food (and water) availability.

Statistical prediction of seasonal discharge in the Naryn basin for water resources planning in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Gafurov, Abror; Gerlitz, Lars; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merkushkin, Aleksandr; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

The semi-arid regions of Central Asia crucially depend on the water resources supplied by the mountainous areas of the Tien-Shan and Pamirs. During the summer months the snow and glacier melt water of the rivers originating in the mountains provides the only water resource available for agricultural production but also for water collection in reservoirs for energy production in winter months. Thus a reliable seasonal forecast of the water resources is crucial for a sustainable management and planning of water resources.. In fact, seasonal forecasts are mandatory tasks of national hydro-meteorological services in the region. Thus this study aims at a statistical forecast of the seasonal water availability, whereas the focus is put on the usage of freely available data in order to facilitate an operational use without data access limitations. The study takes the Naryn basin as a test case, at which outlet the Toktogul reservoir stores the discharge of the Naryn River. As most of the water originates form snow and glacier melt, a statistical forecast model should use data sets that can serve as proxy data for the snow masses and snow water equivalent in late spring, which essentially determines the bulk of the seasonal discharge. CRU climate data describing the precipitation and temperature in the basin during winter and spring was used as base information, which was complemented by MODIS snow cover data processed through ModSnow tool, discharge during the spring and also GRACE gravimetry anomalies. For the construction of linear forecast models monthly as well as multi-monthly means over the period January to April were used to predict the seasonal mean discharge of May-September at the station Uchterek. An automatic model selection was performed in multiple steps, whereas the best models were selected according to several performance measures and their robustness in a leave-one-out cross validation. It could be shown that the seasonal discharge can be predicted with exceptionally high skill reaching explained variances of 86% in the cross validation using ModSnow processed snow cover data and CRU temperature and precipitation data, i.e. freely available data only. Using antecedent discharge information from the Uchterek station over the period January to April the skill can be improved even further. Also the addition of latest EGSIEM GRACE products can improve this skill to > 90% explained variance by replacing the CRU temperature data in the forecast model. From all variables the ModSnow processed MODIS snow cover data proved to be the most important predictor. However, although the prediction models proved to be robust in the cross validation, it has to be mentioned that the models are based on a limited time spanning the period 2000-2012 only. Nevertheless it is believed that the models are reliable, as this time period shows a high variability in seasonal water availability spanning from exceptionally dry to wet years. In summary, the developed forecast model may be a valuable complementary tool for the seasonal discharge prediction in Central Asia for water resources planning, that does not suffer from limited data access required for other forecast methods.

Modeling the resilience of urban water supply using the capital portfolio approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krueger, E. H.; Klammler, H.; Borchardt, D.; Frank, K.; Jawitz, J. W.; Rao, P. S.

2017-12-01

The dynamics of global change challenge the resilience of cities in a multitude of ways, including pressures resulting from population and consumption changes, production patterns, climate and landuse change, as well as environmental hazards. Responses to these challenges aim to improve urban resilience, but lack an adequate understanding of 1) the elements and processes that lead to the resilience of coupled natural-human-engineered systems, 2) the complex dynamics emerging from the interaction of these elements, including the availability of natural resources, infrastructure, and social capital, which may lead to 3) unintended consequences resulting from management responses. We propose a new model that simulates the coupled dynamics of five types of capitals (water resources, infrastructure, finances, political capital /management, and social adaptive capacity) that are necessary for the provision of water supply to urban residents. We parameterize the model based on data for a case study city, which is limited by constraints in water availability, financial resources, and faced with degrading infrastructure, as well as population increase, which challenge the urban management institutions. Our model analyzes the stability of the coupled system, and produces time series of the capital dynamics to quantify its resilience as a result of the portfolio of capitals available to usher adaptive capacity and to secure water supply subjected to multiple recurring shocks. We apply our model to one real urban water supply system located in an arid environment, as well as a wide range of hypothetical case studies, which demonstrates its applicability to various types of cities, and its ability to quantify and compare water supply resilience. The analysis of a range of urban water systems provides valuable insights into guiding more sustainable responses for maintaining the resilience of urban water supply around the globe, by showing how unsustainable responses risk the loss of resilience. We suggest that the same model can be generalized to represent other types of urban infrastructure service systems with different parameterizations.

Agrochemical fate models applied in agricultural areas from Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Yang, Jing; Andreoli, Romano; Binder, Claudia

2010-05-01

The misuse application of pesticides in mainly agricultural catchments can lead to severe problems for humans and environment. Especially in developing countries where there is often found overuse of agrochemicals and incipient or lack of water quality monitoring at local and regional levels, models are needed for decision making and hot spots identification. However, the complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the scarce data availability, limiting the number of analysis, techniques, and models available to researchers. Therefore there is a strong need for model simplification able to appropriate model complexity and still represent the processes. We have developed a new model so-called Westpa-Pest to improve water quality management of an agricultural catchment located in the highlands of Colombia. Westpa-Pest is based on the fully distributed hydrologic model Wetspa and a fate pesticide module. We have applied a multi-criteria analysis for model selection under the conditions and data availability found in the region and compared with the new developed Westpa-Pest model. Furthermore, both models were empirically calibrated and validated. The following questions were addressed i) what are the strengths and weaknesses of the models?, ii) which are the most sensitive parameters of each model?, iii) what happens with uncertainties in soil parameters?, and iv) how sensitive are the transfer coefficients?

Spatial analysis of private tanker water markets in Jordan: Using a hydroeconomic multi-agent model to simulate non-observed water transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim; Gawel, Erik; Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Talozi, Samer; Lachaut, Thibaut; Selby, Philip; Knox, Stephen; Gorelick, Steven; Tilmant, Amaury; Harou, Julien; Mustafa, Daanish; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Rajsekhar, Deepthi; Avisse, Nicolas; Zhang, Hua

2017-04-01

The country of Jordan is characterized by severe water scarcity and deficient public water supply networks. To address these issues, Jordan's water sector authorities have adopted a water rationing scheme implemented by interrupting piped water supply for several days per week. As in many arid countries around the world, this has led to the emergence of private markets of small-scale providers, delivering water via tanker trucks. On the one hand, these markets play a crucial role in meeting residential and commercial water demands by balancing the shortcomings of the public supply system. On the other hand, providers partially rely on illegal abstractions from rural ground and surface water sources, thereby circumventing regulatory efforts to conserve these resources. Private tanker water markets, therefore, provide a substantial contribution to consumer welfare while jeopardizing freshwater resource sustainability. Thus, a better understanding of these markets is of great importance for the formulation of policy interventions pursuing freshwater sustainability in a socially acceptable manner. Direct assessments of the size of these markets or their responses to policy interventions are, however, impeded by their partially illegal nature and the resulting lack of available information. To overcome this data collection challenge, we use a hydroeconomic multi-agent model developed in the Jordan Water Project to indirectly simulate country-wide tanker water market activities on the basis of demand and supply estimates. The demand for tanker water is conceptualized as a residual demand, remaining after a water user has depleted all available cheap and qualitatively reliable piped water. It is derived from residential and commercial demand functions on the basis of survey data. Tanker water supply is determined by farm simulation models calculating the groundwater pumping cost and the agricultural opportunity cost of tanker water. Finally, a spatial market algorithm matches rural supplies with users' demands across the 89 subdistricts of Jordan. This algorithm is parameterized with survey data we collected on tanker operators' transport costs and profit expectations. The model is successfully validated with available data on tanker truck registrations and tanker water prices. Model results reveal the spatial distribution of the private tanker markets' freshwater extractions, sales quantities, and economic impacts on different water user groups across all of Jordan. The results confirm the quantitative importance of these markets for consumer welfare. A dynamic coupling of farm agents with a country-wide groundwater model allows us to capture feedbacks between tanker water markets and groundwater levels. This enables us to assess policy impacts over time. Model analyses show that policies aiming to mitigate the negative sustainability impacts of private tanker water markets need to simultaneously address the shortcomings of the piped water supply system in order to avoid undue burdens on water users.

Household's willingness to pay for heterogeneous attributes of drinking water quality and services improvement: an application of choice experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dauda, Suleiman Alhaji; Yacob, Mohd Rusli; Radam, Alias

2015-09-01

The service of providing good quality of drinking water can greatly improve the lives of the community and maintain a normal health standard. For a large number of population in the world, specifically in the developing countries, the availability of safe water for daily sustenance is none. Damaturu is the capital of Yobe State, Nigeria. It hosts a population of more than two hundred thousand, yet only 45 % of the households are connected to the network of Yobe State Water Corporation's pipe borne water services; this has led people to source for water from any available source and thus, exposed them to the danger of contracting waterborne diseases. In order to address the problem, Yobe State Government has embarked on the construction of a water treatment plant with a capacity and facility to improve the water quality and connect the town with water services network. The objectives of this study are to assess the households' demand preferences of the heterogeneous water attributes in Damaturu, and to estimate their marginal willingness to pay, using mixed logit model in comparison with conditional logit model. A survey of 300 households randomly sampled indicated that higher education greatly influenced the households' WTP decisions. The most significant variable from both of the models is TWQ, which is MRS that rates the water quality from the level of satisfactory to very good. 219 % in simple model is CLM, while 126 % is for the interaction model. As for MLM, 685 % is for the simple model and 572 % is for the interaction model. Estimate of MLM has more explanatory powers than CLM. Essentially, this finding can help the government in designing cost-effective management and efficient tariff structure.

Regional scale hydrologic modeling of a karst-dominant geomorphology: The case study of the Island of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malagò, Anna; Efstathiou, Dionissios; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P.; Franchini, Marco; Bidoglio, Giovanni; Kritsotakis, Marinos

2016-09-01

Crete Island (Greece) is a karst dominated region that faces limited water supply and increased seasonal demand, especially during summer for agricultural and touristic uses. In addition, due to the mountainous terrain, interbasin water transfer is very limited. The resulting water imbalance requires a correct quantification of available water resources in view of developing appropriate management plans to face the problem of water shortage. The aim of this work is the development of a methodology using the SWAT model and a karst-flow model (KSWAT, Karst SWAT model) for the quantification of a spatially and temporally explicit hydrologic water balance of karst-dominated geomorphology in order to assess the sustainability of the actual water use. The application was conducted in the Island of Crete using both hard (long time series of streamflow and spring monitoring stations) and soft data (i.e. literature information of individual processes). The KSWAT model estimated the water balance under normal hydrological condition as follows: 6400 Mm3/y of precipitation, of which 40% (2500 Mm3/y) was lost through evapotranspiration, 5% was surface runoff and 55% percolated into the soil contributing to lateral flow (2%), and recharging the shallow (9%) and deep aquifer (44%). The water yield was estimated as 22% of precipitation, of which about half was the contribution from spring discharges (9% of precipitation). The application of the KSWAT model increased our knowledge about water resources availability and distribution in Crete under different hydrologic conditions. The model was able to capture the hydrology of the karst areas allowing a better management and planning of water resources under scarcity.

ESTIMATION OF INFILTRATION RATE IN THE VADOSE ZONE: COMPILATION OF SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL MODELS - VOLUME I

EPA Science Inventory

The unsaturated or vadose zone provides a complex system for the simulation of water movement and contaminant transport and fate. Numerous models are available for performing simulations related to the movement of water. There exists extensive documentation of these models. Ho...

COMPILATION OF SATURATED AND UNSATURATED ZONE MODELING SOFTWARE

EPA Science Inventory

The full report provides readers an overview of available ground-water modeling programs and related software. It is an update of EPA/600/R-93/118 and EPA/600/R-94/028, two previous reports from the same program at the International Ground Water Modeling Center (IGWMC) in Colora...

Energy-Water Modeling and Analysis | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

future electricity scenarios under cases of limited water availability and electricity sector impacts of Manufacturing Water Use The Water Intensity and Resource Impacts of Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development Impacts of Unconventional Hydrocarbon Development Life Cycle Harmonization Project (Water) Sample

Geant4-DNA example applications for track structure simulations in liquid water: a report from the Geant4-DNA Project.

PubMed

Incerti, S; Kyriakou, I; Bernal, M A; Bordage, M C; Francis, Z; Guatelli, S; Ivanchenko, V; Karamitros, M; Lampe, N; Lee, S B; Meylan, S; Min, C H; Shin, W G; Nieminen, P; Sakata, D; Tang, N; Villagrasa, C; Tran, H; Brown, J M C

2018-06-14

This Special Report presents a description of Geant4-DNA user applications dedicated to the simulation of track structures (TS) in liquid water and associated physical quantities (e.g. range, stopping power, mean free path…). These example applications are included in the Geant4 Monte Carlo toolkit and are available in open access. Each application is described and comparisons to recent international recommendations are shown (e.g. ICRU, MIRD), when available. The influence of physics models available in Geant4-DNA for the simulation of electron interactions in liquid water is discussed. Thanks to these applications, the authors show that the most recent sets of physics models available in Geant4-DNA (the so-called "option4″ and "option 6″ sets) enable more accurate simulation of stopping powers, dose point kernels and W-values in liquid water, than the default set of models ("option 2″) initially provided in Geant4-DNA. They also serve as reference applications for Geant4-DNA users interested in TS simulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Hindcast of water availability in regional aquifer systems using MODFLOW Farm Process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Phillips, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Coupled groundwater and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle can be simulated by the Farm Process for MODFLOW (MF-FMP) in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas and aquifer-storage and recovery systems. MF-FMP is being applied to three productive agricultural regions of different scale in the State of California, USA, to assess the availability of water and the impacts of alternative management decisions. Hindcast simulations are conducted for similar periods from the 1960s to near recent times. Historical groundwater pumpage is mostly unknown in one region (Central Valley) and is estimated by MF-FMP. In another region (Pajaro Valley), recorded pumpage is used to calibrate model-estimated pumpage. Multiple types of observations are used to estimate uncertain parameters, such as hydraulic, land-use, and farm properties. MF-FMP simulates how climate variability and water-import availability affect water demand and supply. MF-FMP can be used to predict water availability based on anticipated changes in anthropogenic or natural water demands. Keywords groundwater; surface-water; irrigation; water availability; response to climate variability/change

Ground-water models for water resource planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, J.E.

1983-01-01

In the past decade hydrogeologists have emphasized the development of computer-based mathematical models to aid in the understanding of flow, the transport of solutes, transport of heat, and deformation in the ground-water system. These models have been used to provide information and predictions for water managers. Too frequently, ground-water was neglected in water resource planning because managers believed that it could not be adequately evaluated in terms of availability, quality, and effect of development on surface-water supplies. Now, however, with newly developed digital ground-water models, effects of development can be predicted. Such models have been used to predict hydrologic and quality changes under different stresses. These models have grown in complexity over the last ten years from simple one-layer models to three-dimensional simulations of ground-water flow, which may include solute transport, heat transport, effects of land subsidence, and encroachment of saltwater. Case histories illustrate how predictive ground-water models have provided the information needed for the sound planning and management of water resources in the USA. ?? 1983 D. Reidel Publishing Company.

User manuals for the Delaware River Basin Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (DRB–WATER) and associated WATER application utilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system (DSS) for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin (DRB) that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that have been parameterized using three hydrologic response units—forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. It is this integration that enables the regional hydrologic-modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model. The DSS provides a “historical” database, ideal for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. The WATER Application Utilities are provided with the DSS and apply change factors for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration to a 1981–2011 climatic record provided with the DSS. These change factors were derived from a suite of general circulation models (GCMs) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. These change factors are based on 25-year monthly averages (normals) that are centere on 2030 and 2060. The WATER Application Utilities also can be used to apply a 2010 snapshot of water use for the DRB; a factorial approach enables scenario testing of increased or decreased water use for each simulation. Finally, the WATER Application Utilities can be used to reformat streamflow time series for input to statistical or reservoir management software. 

A new and integrated hydro-economic accounting and analytical framework for water resources: a case study for North China.

PubMed

Guan, Dabo; Hubacek, Klaus

2008-09-01

Water is a critical issue in China for a variety of reasons. China is poor of water resources with 2,300 m(3) of per capita availability, which is less than 13 of the world average. This is exacerbated by regional differences; e.g. North China's water availability is only about 271 m(3) of per capita value, which is only 125 of the world's average. Furthermore, pollution contributes to water scarcity and is a major source for diseases, particularly for the poor. The Ministry of Hydrology [1997. China's Regional Water Bullets. Water Resource and Hydro-power Publishing House, Beijing, China] reports that about 65-80% of rivers in North China no longer support any economic activities. Previous studies have emphasized the amount of water withdrawn but rarely take water quality into consideration. The quality of the return flows usually changes; the water quality being lower than the water flows that entered the production process initially. It is especially important to measure the impacts of wastewater to the hydro-ecosystem. Thus, water consumption should not only account for the amount of water inputs but also the amount of water contaminated in the hydro-ecosystem by the discharged wastewater. In this paper we present a new accounting and analytical approach based on economic input-output modelling combined with a mass balanced hydrological model that links interactions in the economic system with interactions in the hydrological system. We thus follow the tradition of integrated economic-ecologic input-output modelling. Our hydro-economic accounting framework and analysis tool allows tracking water consumption on the input side, water pollution leaving the economic system and water flows passing through the hydrological system thus enabling us to deal with water resources of different qualities. Following this method, the results illustrate that North China requires 96% of its annual available water, including both water inputs for the economy and contaminated water that is ineligible for any uses.

Projections of water resources availability in Crete for the 21st century under the global change perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, A. G.; Tsanis, I. K.; Jacob, D.

2012-04-01

A robust signal of a warmer and drier climate over the western Mediterranean region is projected from the majority of climate models. This effect appears more pronounced during warm periods, when the seasonal decrease of precipitation can exceed control climatology by 25-30%. The rapid development of Crete in the last 30 years has exerted strong pressures on the natural resources of the region. Urbanization and growth of agriculture, tourism and industry had strong impact on the water resources of island by substantially increasing water demand. The objective of this study is to analyze and assess the impact of global change on the water resources status for the island of Crete for a range of 24 different scenarios of projected hydro-climatological regime, demand and supply potential. Water resources application issues analyzed and facilitated within this study, focusing on a refinement of the future water demands of the island, and comparing with "state of the art" global climate model (GCM) results and an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) under three different emission scenarios, to estimate water resources availability, during the 21st century. A robust signal of water scarcity is projected for all the combinations of emission (A2, A1B and B1), demand and infrastructure scenarios. Despite the uncertainty of the assessments, the quantitative impact of the projected changes on water availability indicates that climate change plays an equally important role to water use and management in controlling future water status in a Mediterranean island like the island of Crete. The outcome of this analysis will assist in short and long-term strategic water resources planning by prioritizing water related infrastructure development.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

PubMed

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Linking the physical and the socio-economic compartments of an integrated water and land use management model on a river basin scale using an object-oriented water supply model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Nickel, Darla; Meleg, Alejandro; Trifkovic, Aleksandar; Braun, Juergen

Within the framework of the research project ‘GLOWA-Danube’, a model of the water supply sector has been developed. GLOWA-Danube investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global change. For this purpose, the decision support system DANUBIA, comprising 15 fully coupled models, has been developed. Within DANUBIA the water supply model (‘WaterSupply’) forms the link between various physical models determining water quality and availability and several socio-economic models determining water consumption and demand. Having a central focus on public drinking water supply, its purpose is to correctly simulate the present day system of water extraction and distribution and the related costs, but also to allow meaningful response to possible future changes of boundary conditions, first and foremost changes in water demand or water availability and quality. Response mechanisms are also envisioned for changes in political and economic boundary conditions, and advances in technology. The model will be used locate critical regions which could experience water stress in the future, but does not aim to find the appropriate solutions or to predict the optimal organisation of water supply in the Danube Basin under such changing conditions. In the object-oriented model structure, both water supply companies (WSC) and communities are represented by main classes. Both classes have a limited view and knowledge of their environment. A community knows where and how much water is consumed and from which WSC it is served. A WSC possesses information regarding extraction sites and water rights, raw water quality and potential collaborating WSC. The WSC can perform actions that are different from ‘business as usual’. These deviations from their usual behaviour can be interpreted by decision makers but should not be regarded as a replacement for the decision-making process itself. The model is conceptualised using object-oriented concepts of the Unified Modelling Language (UML) and is implemented in JAVA. This short overview is meant to answer key questions such as why and how WaterSupply was implemented, what is unique and new about the model and what are the general lessons learned and the added value with regard to integrated modelling on a river basin scale. It is obvious that in the attempt to answer these questions it is not possible to satisfy experts from all the relevant related fields, which include computer sciences, economy, behavioural science and not least water supply engineering and hydrology.

Evaluating the risk of water distribution system failure: A shared frailty model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert M.; Thurnau, Robert C.

2011-12-01

Condition assessment (CA) Modeling is drawing increasing interest as a technique that can assist in managing drinking water infrastructure. This paper develops a model based on the application of a Cox proportional hazard (PH)/shared frailty model and applies it to evaluating the risk of failure in drinking water networks using data from the Laramie Water Utility (located in Laramie, Wyoming, USA). Using the risk model a cost/ benefit analysis incorporating the inspection value method (IVM), is used to assist in making improved repair, replacement and rehabilitation decisions for selected drinking water distribution system pipes. A separate model is developed to predict failures in prestressed concrete cylinder pipe (PCCP). Various currently available inspection technologies are presented and discussed.

Quantifying the Contribution of Regional Aquifers to Stream Flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masbruch, M.; Dickinson, J.

2017-12-01

The growing population of the arid and semiarid southwestern U.S. relies on over-allocated surface water resources and poorly quantified groundwater resources. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, recent studies have found that about 50 percent of the surface water at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages is derived from groundwater contributions as base flow. Prior USGS and other studies for the Colorado Plateau region have mainly examined groundwater and surface water as separate systems, and there has yet to be regional synthesis of groundwater availability in aquifers that contribute to surface water. A more physically based representation of groundwater flow could improve simulations of surface-water capture by groundwater pumping, and changes of groundwater discharge to surface water caused by possible shifts in the distribution, magnitude, and timing of recharge in the future. We seek to improve conceptual and numerical models of groundwater and surface-water interactions in the Colorado Plateau region as part of a USGS regional groundwater availability assessment. Numerical modeling is used to simulate and quantify the base flow from groundwater to the Colorado River and its major tributaries. Groundwater/surface-water interactions will be simulated using the USGS code GSFLOW, which couples the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to the groundwater flow model MODFLOW. Initial results suggest that interactions between groundwater and surface water are important for projecting long-term changes in surface water budgets.

Ecosystem Predictions with Approximate vs. Exact Light Fields

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-27

and optically shallow waters for which bottom reflectance can substantially increase the irradiance available for photosynthesis and water heating...primary productivity, heating of water, and photochemical reactions. When modeling photosynthesis , which depends on the number of photons oabsorbed, it...irradiance, W m nm , to quantum units,-2 -1 photons s m nm .-1 -2 -1 A wavelength-integrated measure of the total light available for photosynthesis

Progress on water data integration and distribution: a summary of select U.S. Geological Survey data systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blodgett, David L.; Lucido, Jessica M.; Kreft, James M.

2016-01-01

Critical water-resources issues ranging from flood response to water scarcity make access to integrated water information, services, tools, and models essential. Since 1995 when the first water data web pages went online, the U.S. Geological Survey has been at the forefront of water data distribution and integration. Today, real-time and historical streamflow observations are available via web pages and a variety of web service interfaces. The Survey has built partnerships with Federal and State agencies to integrate hydrologic data providing continuous observations of surface and groundwater, temporally discrete water quality data, groundwater well logs, aquatic biology data, water availability and use information, and tools to help characterize the landscape for modeling. In this paper, we summarize the status and design patterns implemented for selected data systems. We describe how these systems contribute to a U.S. Federal Open Water Data Initiative and present some gaps and lessons learned that apply to global hydroinformatics data infrastructure.

Modeling the impacts of climate change, landuse change, and human population dynamics on water availability and demands in the Southeastern U.S.

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Erika Cohen; David Wear

2005-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method to fully budget annual water supply (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration (ET) + Groundwater supply + Return Flow) and water use from thermoelectric, irrigation, domestic, industry, livestock, minirig, and commercial uses at the regional scale. We used a generalized annual ET model that estimates water loss as a function...

Sensitivity of greenhouse summer dryness to changes in plant rooting characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1997-01-01

A possible consequence of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is "summer dryness," a decrease of summer plant-available soil water in middle latitudes, caused by increased availability of energy to drive evapotranspiration. Results from a numerical climate model indicate that summer dryness and related changes of land-surface water balances are highly sensitive to possible concomitant changes of plant-available water-holding capacity of soil, which depends on plant rooting depth and density. The model suggests that a 14% decrease of the soil volume whose water is accessible to plant roots would generate the same summer dryness, by one measure, as an equilibrium doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Conversely, a 14% increase of that soil volume would be sufficient to offset the summer dryness associated with carbon-dioxide doubling. Global and regional changes in rooting depth and density may result from (1) plant and plant-community responses to greenhouse warming, to carbon-dioxide fertilization, and to associated changes in the water balance and (2) anthropogenic deforestation and desertification. Given their apparently critical role, heretofore ignored, in global hydroclimatic change, such changes of rooting characteristics should be carefully evaluated using ecosystem observations, theory, and models.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Analyzing Uncertainty and Risk in the Management of Water Resources in the State Of Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Hauffpauir, R.; Mishra, S.; Lavenue, M.

2010-12-01

The State of Texas updates its state water plan every five years to determine the water demand required to meet its growing population. The plan compiles forecasts of water deficits from state-wide regional water planning groups as well as the water supply strategies to address these deficits. To date, the plan has adopted a deterministic framework, where reference values (e.g., best estimates, worst-case scenario) are used for key factors such as population growth, demand for water, severity of drought, water availability, etc. These key factors can, however, be affected by multiple sources of uncertainties such as - the impact of climate on surface water and groundwater availability, uncertainty in population projections, changes in sectoral composition of the economy, variability in water usage, feasibility of the permitting process, cost of implementation, etc. The objective of this study was to develop a generalized and scalable methodology for addressing uncertainty and risk in water resources management both at the regional and the local water planning level. The study proposes a framework defining the elements of an end-to-end system model that captures the key components of demand, supply and planning modules along with their associated uncertainties. The framework preserves the fundamental elements of the well-established planning process in the State of Texas, promoting an incremental and stakeholder-driven approach to adding different levels of uncertainty (and risk) into the decision-making environment. The uncertainty in the water planning process is broken down into two primary categories: demand uncertainty and supply uncertainty. Uncertainty in Demand is related to the uncertainty in population projections and the per-capita usage rates. Uncertainty in Supply, in turn, is dominated by the uncertainty in future climate conditions. Climate is represented in terms of time series of precipitation, temperature and/or surface evaporation flux for some future time period of interest, which can be obtained as outputs of global climate models (GCMs). These are then linked with hydrologic and water-availability models (WAMs) to estimate water availability for the worst drought conditions under each future climate scenario. Combining the demand scenarios with the water availability scenarios yields multiple scenarios for water shortage (or surplus). Given multiple shortage/surplus scenarios, various water management strategies can be assessed to evaluate the reliability of meeting projected deficits. These reliabilities are then used within a multi-criteria decision-framework to assess trade-offs between various water management objectives, thus helping to make more robust decisions while planning for the water needs of the future.

Influences of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability in Jinjiang Basin, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei

2014-01-01

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer. PMID:24701192

Lunchtime School Water Availability and Water Consumption Among California Adolescents.

PubMed

Bogart, Laura M; Babey, Susan H; Patel, Anisha I; Wang, Pan; Schuster, Mark A

2016-01-01

To examine the potential impact of California SB 1413, which required school districts to provide free, fresh drinking water during mealtimes in food service areas by July 1, 2011, on greater water consumption among California adolescents. Data were drawn from the 2012 and 2013 state-representative California Health Interview Survey. A total of 2,665 adolescents aged 12-17 years were interviewed regarding their water consumption and availability of free water during lunchtime at their school. Three-fourths reported that their school provided free water at lunchtime, mainly via fountains. In a multivariate model that controlled for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and school type, adolescents in schools that provided free water consumed significantly more water than adolescents who reported that water was not available, bivariate (standard error) = .67 (.28), p = .02. School water access did not significantly vary across the 2 years. Lunchtime school water availability was related to water consumption, but a quarter of adolescents reported that their school did not provide free water at lunch. Future research should explore what supports and inducements might facilitate provision of drinking water during school mealtimes. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.

Lunchtime School Water Availability and Water Consumption among California Adolescents

PubMed Central

Bogart, Laura M.; Babey, Susan H.; Patel, Anisha I.; Wang, Pan; Schuster, Mark A.

2015-01-01

Purpose To examine the potential impact of California SB1413, which required school districts to provide free, fresh drinking water during mealtimes in food service areas by July 1, 2011, on greater water consumption among California adolescents. Methods Data were drawn from the 2012 and 2013 state-representative California Health Interview Survey. A total of 2,665 adolescents aged 12-17 were interviewed regarding their water consumption and availability of free water during lunchtime at their school. Results Three-fourths reported that their school provided free water at lunchtime, mainly via fountains. In a multivariate model that controlled for age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, BMI, and school type, adolescents in schools that provided free water consumed significantly more water than adolescents who reported that water was not available, b (SE) = 0.67 (0.28), p = .02. School water access did not significantly vary across the two years. Conclusions Lunchtime school water availability was related to water consumption, but a quarter of adolescents reported that their school did not provide free water at lunch. Future research should explore what supports and inducements might facilitate provision of drinking water during school mealtimes. PMID:26552740

Irrigation Dynamics and Tactics - Developing a Sustainable and Profitable Irrigation Strategy for Agricultural Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Opstal, J.; Neale, C. M. U.; Lecina, S.

2014-12-01

Irrigation management is a dynamic process that adapts according to weather conditions and water availability, as well as socio-economic influences. The goal of water users is to adapt their management to achieve maximum profits. However, these decisions should take into account the environmental impact on the surroundings. Agricultural irrigation systems need to be viewed as a system that is an integral part of a watershed. Therefore changes in the infrastructure, operation and management of an irrigated area, has an impact on the water quantity and quality available for other water users. A strategy can be developed for decision-makers using an irrigation system modelling tool. Such a tool can simulate the impact of the infrastructure, operation and management of an irrigation area on its hydrology and agricultural productivity. This combination of factors is successfully simulated with the Ador model, which is able to reproduce on-farm irrigation and water delivery by a canal system. Model simulations for this study are supported with spatial analysis tools using GIS and remote sensing. Continuous measurements of drainage water will be added to indicate the water quality aspects. The Bear River Canal Company located in Northern Utah (U.S.A.) is used as a case study for this research. The irrigation area encompasses 26,000 ha and grows mainly alfalfa, grains, corn and onions. The model allows the simulation of different strategies related to water delivery, on-farm water use, crop rotations, and reservoirs and networks capacities under different weather and water availability conditions. Such changes in the irrigation area will have consequences for farmers in the study area regarding crop production, and for downstream users concerning both the quantity and quality of outflows. The findings from this study give insight to decision-makers and water users for changing irrigation water delivery strategies to improve the sustainability and profitability of agriculture in the future.

Using "big data" to optimally model hydrology and water quality across expansive regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, E.A.; Cook, J.B.; Conrads, P.A.

2009-01-01

This paper describes a new divide and conquer approach that leverages big environmental data, utilizing all available categorical and time-series data without subjectivity, to empirically model hydrologic and water-quality behaviors across expansive regions. The approach decomposes large, intractable problems into smaller ones that are optimally solved; decomposes complex signals into behavioral components that are easier to model with "sub- models"; and employs a sequence of numerically optimizing algorithms that include time-series clustering, nonlinear, multivariate sensitivity analysis and predictive modeling using multi-layer perceptron artificial neural networks, and classification for selecting the best sub-models to make predictions at new sites. This approach has many advantages over traditional modeling approaches, including being faster and less expensive, more comprehensive in its use of available data, and more accurate in representing a system's physical processes. This paper describes the application of the approach to model groundwater levels in Florida, stream temperatures across Western Oregon and Wisconsin, and water depths in the Florida Everglades. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Sub-seasonal predictability of water scarcity at global and local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Wood, E. F.

2016-12-01

Forecasting the water demand and availability for agriculture and energy production has been neglected in previous research, partly due to the fact that most large-scale hydrological models lack the skill to forecast human water demands at sub-seasonal time scale. We study the potential of a sub-seasonal water scarcity forecasting system for improved water management decision making and improved estimates of water demand and availability. We have generated 32 years of global sub-seasonal multi-model water availability, demand and scarcity forecasts. The quality of the forecasts is compared to a reference forecast derived from resampling historic weather observations. The newly developed system has been evaluated for both the global scale and in a real-time local application in the Sacramento valley for the Trinity, Shasta and Oroville reservoirs, where the water demand for agriculture and hydropower is high. On the global scale we find that the reference forecast shows high initial forecast skill (up to 8 months) for water scarcity in the eastern US, Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Adding dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts results in a clear improvement for most regions in the world, increasing the forecasts' lead time by 2 or more months on average. The strongest improvements are found in the US, Brazil, Central Asia and Australia. For the Sacramento valley we can accurately predict anomalies in the reservoir inflow, hydropower potential and the downstream irrigation water demand 6 months in advance. This allow us to forecast potential water scarcity in the Sacramento valley and adjust the reservoir management to prevent deficits in energy or irrigation water availability. The newly developed forecast system shows that it is possible to reduce the vulnerability to upcoming water scarcity events and allows optimization of the distribution of the available water between the agricultural and energy sector half a year in advance.

Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

2012-12-01

The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop yields, unmet demand and available instream flows due to climate inputs, hydrology and crop model parameterization, water management assumptions, model integration assumptions, as well as multiple socio economic alternatives are also presented. Compared to historical conditions, for the 2030s time period, our results show an average additional irrigation water demand requirement of 370 million cubic meters in the CRB, an increased frequency of curtailment and a revenue impact between 70 and $150 million resulting from adverse crop yield impacts due to curtailment in the state of Washington. The impacts vary spatially and some of the CRB tributary watersheds are impacted more than others, e.g., unmet demand in the Yakima River basin is expected to increase by 50%. Increased irrigation demand, coupled with decreased seasonal supply poses difficult water resources management questions in the region.

Field Performance of Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Northeast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shapiro, Carl; Puttagunta, Srikanth

2016-02-05

Heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) are finally entering the mainstream residential water heater market. Potential catalysts are increased consumer demand for higher energy efficiency electric water heating and a new Federal water heating standard that effectively mandates use of HPWHs for electric storage water heaters with nominal capacities greater than 55 gallons. When compared to electric resistance water heating, the energy and cost savings potential of HPWHs is tremendous. Converting all electric resistance water heaters to HPWHs could save American consumers 7.8 billion dollars annually ($182 per household) in water heating operating costs and cut annual residential source energy consumptionmore » for water heating by 0.70 quads. Steven Winter Associates, Inc. embarked on one of the first in situ studies of these newly released HPWH products through a partnership with two sponsoring electric utility companies, National Grid and NSTAR, and one sponsoring energy efficiency service program administrator, Cape Light Compact. Recent laboratory studies have measured performance of HPWHs under various operating conditions, but publically available field studies have not been as available. This evaluation attempts to provide publicly available field data on new HPWHs by monitoring the performance of three recently released products (General Electric GeoSpring(TM), A.O. Smith Voltex(R), and Stiebel Eltron Accelera(R) 300). Fourteen HPWHs were installed in Massachusetts and Rhode Island and monitored for over a year. Of the 14 units, ten were General Electric models (50 gallon units), two were Stiebel Eltron models (80 gallon units), and two were A.O. Smith models (one 60-gallon and one 80-gallon unit).« less

Inverse models: A necessary next step in ground-water modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, E.P.; Hill, M.C.

1997-01-01

Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares repression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares regression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.

Hydrologic modeling for monitoring water availability in Africa and the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Getirana, A.; Arsenault, K. R.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

Drought impacts water resources required by crops and communities, in turn threatening lives and livelihoods. Early warning systems, which rely on inputs from hydro-climate models, are used to help manage risk and provide humanitarian assistance to the right place at the right time. However, translating advancements in hydro-climate science into action is a persistent and time-consuming challenge: scientists and decision-makers need to work together to enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of the hydrological data products being produced. One organization that tackles this challenge is the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which has been using evidence-based approaches to address food security since the 1980s.In this presentation, we describe the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), developed by FEWS NET and NASA hydrologic scientists to maximize the use of limited hydro-climatic observations for humanitarian applications. The FLDAS, an instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS), is comprised of land surface models driven by satellite rainfall inputs already familiar to FEWS NET food security analysts. First, we evaluate the quality of model outputs over parts of the Middle East and Africa using remotely sensed soil moisture and vegetation indices. We then describe derived water availability indices that have been identified by analysts as potentially useful sources of information. Specifically, we demonstrate how the Baseline Water Stress and Drought Severity Index detect recent water availability crisis events in the Tigris-Euphrates Basin and the Gaborone Reservoir, Botswana. Finally we discuss ongoing work to deliver this information to FEWS NET analysts in a timely and user-friendly manner, with the ultimate goal of integrating these water availability metrics into regular decision-making activities.

Evaluation of Two Soil Water Redistribution Models (Finite Difference and Hourly Cascade Approach) Through The Comparison of Continuous field Sensor-Based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreyra, R.; Stockle, C. O.; Huggins, D. R.

2014-12-01

Soil water storage and dynamics are of critical importance for a variety of processes in terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture. Many of those systems are under significant pressure in terms of water availability and use. Therefore, assessing alternative scenarios through hydrological models is an increasingly valuable exercise. Soil water holding capacity is defined by the concepts of soil field capacity and plant available water, which are directly related to soil physical properties. Both concepts define the energy status of water in the root system and closely interact with plant physiological processes. Furthermore, these concepts play a key role in the environmental transport of nutrients and pollutants. Soil physical parameters (e.g. saturated hydraulic conductivity, total porosity and water release curve) are required as input for field-scale soil water redistribution models. These parameters are normally not easy to measure or monitor, and estimation through pedotransfer functions is often inadequate. Our objectives are to improve field-scale hydrological modeling by: (1) assessing new undisturbed methodologies for determining important soil physical parameters necessary for model inputs; and (2) evaluating model outputs, making a detailed specification of soil parameters and the particular boundary condition that are driving water movement under two contrasting environments. Soil physical properties (saturated hydraulic conductivity and determination of water release curves) were quantified using undisturbed laboratory methodologies for two different soil textural classes (silt loam and sandy loam) and used to evaluate two soil water redistribution models (finite difference solution and hourly cascade approach). We will report on model corroboration results performed using in situ, continuous, field measurements with soil water content capacitance probes and digital tensiometers. Here, natural drainage and water redistribution were monitored following a controlled water application where the study areas were isolated from other water inputs and outputs. We will also report on the assessment of two soil water sensors (Decagon Devices 5TM capacitance probe and UMS T4 tensiometers) for the two soil textural classes in terms of consistency and replicability.

Assessing the Influence of Human Activities on Global Water Resources Using an Advanced Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Koirala, S.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2010-12-01

In order to examine the impact of human intervention on the global hydrological cycle, a Land Surface Model was enhanced with schemes to assess the anthropogenic disturbance on the natural water flow at the global scale. Four different schemes namely; reservoir operation, crop growth, environmental flow, and anthropogenic water withdrawal modules from a state-of-the-art global water resources assessment model called H08 were integrated into an offline version of LSM, Minimal Advance Treatment of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO). MATSIRO represents majority of the hydrological processes of water and energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere on a physical basis and is designed to be coupled with GCM. The integrated model presented here thus has the capability to simulate both natural and anthropogenic flows of water globally at a spatial resolution of 1°x1°, considering dam operation, domestic, industrial and agricultural water withdrawals and environmental flow requirements. The model can also be coupled with climate models to assess the impact of human activities on the climate system. A simple groundwater scheme was also incorporated and the model can be used to assess the change in water table due to groundwater pumping for irrigation. The model was validated by comparing simulated soil moisture, river discharge and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) with observations. The model performs well in simulating TWSA as compared to GRACE observation in different river basins ranging from very wet to very dry. Soil moisture cannot be validated globally because of the lack of validation datasets. For Illinois region, where long term soil moisture observations are available, the model captures the seasonal variation quite well. The simulated global potential irrigation demand is about 1100km3/year, which is within the range of previously published estimates based on various water balance models and LSMs. The model has an advanced option to limit water withdrawal from river channels based on water availability and environmental flow requirements. Results showed that about three-fourth of the irrigation demand can be met from surface-water (rivers, small and medium-sized reservoirs). Therefore, one-fourth of the demand must have been supplied by groundwater. Further analysis of modeled groundwater pumping for irrigation is needed to examine the extent of groundwater withdrawal and its impact on water table fluctuations.

Water activity and mobility in solutions of glycerol and small molecular weight sugars: Implication for cryo- and lyopreservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaoming; Fowler, Alex; Toner, Mehmet

2006-10-01

In this study, the free volume models, originally developed for large molecular weight polymer-solvent systems, were used to study the water activity and mobility in solutions of four small molecular weight cryo-/lyoprotectants, viz., glycerol, a monosaccharide (fructose), and two disaccharides (sucrose and trehalose). The free volume model parameters were determined by fitting the models to available experimental data using a nonlinear optimization procedure. It was found that free volume models could accurately predict the available experimental data, which suggests that the free volume models might be generally applicable to aqueous solutions of small molecular weight cryo-/lyoprotectants. Furthermore, several models for estimating the mutual diffusion coefficient were tested using available experimental data for aqueous solutions of glycerol and a better method to estimate the mutual diffusion coefficient was proposed. Free volume models were used to predict and analyze the water activity and mobility in solutions of four cryo-/lyoprotectants under conditions frequently encountered in cryo-/lyopreservation applications. It was found that the water mobility in the glassy state of the above four solutions is essentially negligible in the case of cryopreservation with storage temperature lower than -110°C. However, the water mobility in a glass at higher temperature (>-80°C) may be significant. As a result, a subcooling of up to 50°C may be necessary for the long-term cryo-/lyopreservation of biomaterials depending on the water content and the type of cryo-/lyoprotectants. It was further shown that trehalose might be the best of the four protectants studied for lyopreservation (water mass fraction ⩽0.1) when the storage temperature is above the room temperature. The results from this study might be useful for the development of more effective protocols for both cryopreservation and lyopreservation of living cells and other biomaterials.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Hydrological-niche models predict water plant functional group distributions in diverse wetland types.

PubMed

Deane, David C; Nicol, Jason M; Gehrig, Susan L; Harding, Claire; Aldridge, Kane T; Goodman, Abigail M; Brookes, Justin D

2017-06-01

Human use of water resources threatens environmental water supplies. If resource managers are to develop policies that avoid unacceptable ecological impacts, some means to predict ecosystem response to changes in water availability is necessary. This is difficult to achieve at spatial scales relevant for water resource management because of the high natural variability in ecosystem hydrology and ecology. Water plant functional groups classify species with similar hydrological niche preferences together, allowing a qualitative means to generalize community responses to changes in hydrology. We tested the potential for functional groups in making quantitative prediction of water plant functional group distributions across diverse wetland types over a large geographical extent. We sampled wetlands covering a broad range of hydrogeomorphic and salinity conditions in South Australia, collecting both hydrological and floristic data from 687 quadrats across 28 wetland hydrological gradients. We built hydrological-niche models for eight water plant functional groups using a range of candidate models combining different surface inundation metrics. We then tested the predictive performance of top-ranked individual and averaged models for each functional group. Cross validation showed that models achieved acceptable predictive performance, with correct classification rates in the range 0.68-0.95. Model predictions can be made at any spatial scale that hydrological data are available and could be implemented in a geographical information system. We show the response of water plant functional groups to inundation is consistent enough across diverse wetland types to quantify the probability of hydrological impacts over regional spatial scales. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

An expert system for water quality modelling.

PubMed

Booty, W G; Lam, D C; Bobba, A G; Wong, I; Kay, D; Kerby, J P; Bowen, G S

1992-12-01

The RAISON-micro (Regional Analysis by Intelligent System ON a micro-computer) expert system is being used to predict the effects of mine effluents on receiving waters in Ontario. The potential of this system to assist regulatory agencies and mining industries to define more acceptable effluent limits was shown in an initial study. This system has been further developed so that the expert system helps the model user choose the most appropriate model for a particular application from a hierarchy of models. The system currently contains seven models which range from steady state to time dependent models, for both conservative and nonconservative substances in rivers and lakes. The menu driven expert system prompts the model user for information such as the nature of the receiving water system, the type of effluent being considered, and the range of background data available for use as input to the models. The system can also be used to determine the nature of the environmental conditions at the site which are not available in the textual information database, such as the components of river flow. Applications of the water quality expert system are presented for representative mine sites in the Timmins area of Ontario.

GSFLOW - Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model Based on the Integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Regan, R. Steven; Prudic, David E.; Barlow, Paul M.

2008-01-01

The need to assess the effects of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow requires the development of models that couple two or more components of the hydrologic cycle. An integrated hydrologic model called GSFLOW (Ground-water and Surface-water FLOW) was developed to simulate coupled ground-water and surface-water resources. The new model is based on the integration of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Flow Model (MODFLOW). Additional model components were developed, and existing components were modified, to facilitate integration of the models. Methods were developed to route flow among the PRMS Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) and between the HRUs and the MODFLOW finite-difference cells. This report describes the organization, concepts, design, and mathematical formulation of all GSFLOW model components. An important aspect of the integrated model design is its ability to conserve water mass and to provide comprehensive water budgets for a location of interest. This report includes descriptions of how water budgets are calculated for the integrated model and for individual model components. GSFLOW provides a robust modeling system for simulating flow through the hydrologic cycle, while allowing for future enhancements to incorporate other simulation techniques.

Hydrological Modelling of The Guadiana Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conan, C.; Bouraoui, F.; de Marsily, G.; Bidoglio, G.

Increased anthropogenic activities such as agriculture, irrigation, industry, mining, ur- ban water supply and sewage treatment, have created significant environmental prob- lems. To ensure sustainable development of water resources, water managers need new strategies and suitable tools. In particular it is often compulsory that surface wa- ter and groundwater be managed simultaneously both in terms of quantity and quality at catchment scales. To this purpose, a model coupling SWAT (Soil and Water As- sessment Tool) and MODFLOW (Modular 3-D Flow model) was developed. SWAT is a quasi-distributed watershed model with a GIS interface that outlines the sub-basins and stream networks from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and calculates daily wa- ter balances from meteorological data, soil and land-use characteristics. The particular advantage of this model, compared to other fully distributed physically based mod- els, is that it requires a small amount of readily available input data. MODFLOW is a fully distributed model that calculates groundwater flow from aquifer characteris- tics. We have adapted this new coupled model SWAT-MODFLOW to a Mediterranean catchment, the Guadiana basin, and present the first results of this work. Only wa- ter quantity results are available at this stage. The validation consisted in comparing measured and predicted daily flow at the catchment and sub-catchment outlets for the period 1970-1995. The model accurately reproduced the decrease of the piezometric level, due to increased water abstraction, and the exchanges between surface water and ground-water. The sensitivity of the model to irrigation practices was evaluated. The usefulness of this model as a management tool has been illustrated through the analysis of alternative scenarios of agricultural practices and climate change.

A Marginal Cost Based "Social Cost of Carbon" Provides Inappropriate Guidance in a World That Needs Rapid and Deep Decarbonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, M. G.; Vaishnav, P.; Azevedo, I. L.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2016-12-01

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change are projected to alter many sectors of the US economy. A growing body of research has examined these effects in the energy, water, and agricultural sectors. Rising summer temperatures increase the demand for electricity. Changing precipitation patterns effect the availability of water for hydropower generation, thermo-electric cooling, irrigation, and municipal and industrial consumption. A combination of changes to temperature and precipitation alter crop yields and cost-effective farming practices. Although a significant body of research exists on analyzing impacts to individual sectors, fewer studies examine the effects using a common set of assumptions (e.g., climatic and socio-economic) within a coupled modeling framework. The present analysis uses a multi-sector, multi-model framework with common input assumptions to assess the projected effects of climate change on energy, water, and land-use in the United States. The analysis assesses the climate impacts for across 5 global circulation models for representative concentration pathways (RCP) of 8.5 and 4.5 W/m2. The energy sector models - Pacific Northwest National Lab's Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) - show the effects of rising temperature on energy and electricity demand. Electricity supply in ReEDS is also affected by the availability of water for hydropower and thermo-electric cooling. Water availability is calculated from the GCM's precipitation using the US Basins model. The effects on agriculture are estimated using both a process-based crop model (EPIC) and an agricultural economic model (FASOM-GHG), which adjusts water supply curves based on information from US Basins. The sectoral models show higher economic costs of climate change under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 averaged across the country and across GCM's.

Conceptualizing the dynamics of a drought affected agricultural community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuil, Linda; Carr, Gemma; Viglione, Alberto; Bloeschl, Guenter

2015-04-01

Climate and especially water availability and variability play an important role in the development of our societies. This can be seen through the vast investments that are made in reaching water security and the economic impact regions experience when the rains fail. However, the limit of available fresh water is increasingly felt as our population increases and the demand for water continues to rise. But how do we as society respond? Are periods of drought making us more resilient? The answer to this question is sought through the development of a stylized model that is built within the spirit of the Easter Island model by Brander and Taylor and aimed at capturing the essence of the dynamics of water supply and demand. By explicitly incorporating feedbacks, but keeping the framework simple, the model seeks to understand qualitative behavior of our socio-hydrological system as opposed to predicting exact pathways. The model shows that carrying capacity dynamics are a determining factor for continued growth. Future work will explore the underlying relationships further, among others, through examination of case studies.

Climate, interseasonal storage of soil water, and the annual water balance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

1994-01-01

The effects of annual totals and seasonal variations of precipitation and potential evaporation on the annual water balance are explored. It is assumed that the only other factor of significance to annual water balance is a simple process of water storage, and that the relevant storage capacity is the plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil. Under the assumption that precipitation and potential evaporation vary sinusoidally through the year, it is possible to derive an analytic solution of the storage problem, and this yields an expression for the fraction of precipitation that evaporates (and the fraction that runs off) as a function of three dimensionless numbers: the ratio of annual potential evaporation to annual precipitation (index of dryness); an index of the seasonality of the difference between precipitation and potential evaporation; and the ratio of plant-available water-holding capacity to annual precipitation. The solution is applied to the area of the United States east of 105??W, using published information on precipitation, potential evaporation, and plant-available water-holding capacity as inputs, and using an independent analysis of observed river runoff for model evaluation. The model generates an areal mean annual runoff of only 187 mm, which is about 30% less than the observed runoff (263 mm). The discrepancy is suggestive of the importance of runoff-generating mechanisms neglected in the model. These include intraseasonal variability (storminess) of precipitation, spatial variability of storage capacity, and finite infiltration capacity of land. ?? 1994.

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Linking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management.

PubMed

Suárez-Almiñana, Sara; Pedro-Monzonís, María; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín; Solera, Abel

2017-12-15

This study focuses on a novel type of methodology which connects Pan-European data to the local scale in the field of water resources management. This methodology is proposed to improve and facilitate the decision making within the planning and management of water resources, taking into account climate change and its expected impacts. Our main point of interest is focused on the assessment of the predictability of extreme events and their possible effects, specifically droughts and water scarcity. Consequently, the Júcar River Basin was selected as the case study, due to the ongoing water scarcity problems and the last drought episodes suffered in the Mediterranean region. In order to study these possible impacts, we developed a modeling chain divided into four steps, they are: i) data collection, ii) analysis of available data, iii) models calibration and iv) climate impact analysis. Over previous steps, we used climate data from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) belonging to the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) coming from a hydrological model across all of Europe called E-HYPE. The data were bias corrected and used to obtain statistical results of the availability of water resources for the future (horizon 2039) and in form of indicators. This was performed through a hydrological (EVALHID), stochastic (MASHWIN) and risk management (SIMRISK) models, all of which were specifically calibrated for this basin. The results show that the availability of water resources is much more enthusiastic than in the current situation, indicating the possibility that climate change, which was predicted to occur in the future has already happened in the Júcar River Basin. It seems that the so called "Effect 80", an important decrease in water resources for the last three decades, is not well contemplated in the initial data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In a bigger framework of nexus - water, energy, food, ecosystem - CWATM will be coupled to the existing IIASA models including the Integrated Assessment Model MESSAGE and the global land and ecosystem model GLOBIOM in order to realize an improved assessments of water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus and associated feedback. Our vision for the short to medium term work is to introduce water quality (e.g., salinization in deltas and eutrophication associated with mega cities) into CWATM and to consider qualitative and quantitative measures of transboundary river and groundwater governance into an integrated modelling framework.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

Hydro-Economic Modeling with Minimum Data Requirements: An Application to the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, M.; Maneta, M.; Vosti, S.; Wallender, W.; Howitt, R.

2008-12-01

Policymakers have been charged with the efficient, equitable, and sustainable use of water resources of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB), Brazil, and also with the promotion of economic growth and the reduction of poverty within the basin. To date, policymakers lack scientific evidence on the potential consequences for growth, poverty alleviation or environmental sustainability of alternative uses of water resources. To address these key knowledge gaps, we have linked a hydrologic and an economic model of agriculture to investigate how economic decisions affect available water, and vice versa. More specifically, the models are used to predict the effects of the application of Brazilian federal surface water use policies on farmer's net revenues and on the hydrologic system. The Economic Model of Agriculture. A spatially explicit, farm-level model capable of accommodating a broad array of farm sizes and farm/farmer characteristics is developed and used to predict the effects of alternative water policies and neighbors' water use patterns on crop mix choice. A production function comprised of seven categories of non-water-related inputs used in agriculture (land, fertilizers, pesticides, seeds, hired labor, family labor and machinery) and four water-related inputs used in agriculture (applied water, irrigation labor, irrigation capital and energy) is estimated. The parameters emerging from this estimated production function are then introduced into a non-linear, net revenue maximization positive mathematical programming algorithm that is used for simulations. The Hydrological Model. MIKE Basin, a semi-distributed hydrology model, is used to calculate water budgets for the SFRB. MIKE Basin calculates discharge at selected nodes by accumulating runoff down the river network; it simulates reservoirs using stage-area-storage and downstream release rule curves. The data used to run the model are discharge to calculate local runoff, precipitation, reference ET, crop coefficients to calculate adjusted transpiration, and reservoir operating rules. Linking the Hydro and Economic Models. Based on the crop mix and area under plow of a reference year the economic model of agriculture was calibrated. Following a Monte Carlo procedure, the statistical distribution of water flows was estimated at each of the 16 selected nodes in the SFRB. The 5th and 95th percentiles of that distribution were used as benchmarks of water availability for drought and wet years, respectively. After subtracting 2000 m3 s-1 reserved for downstream uses estimates of water availability are used as constraints in the net revenue maximization algorithm included in the model of agriculture economics. If water is binding, it will influence crop mix, area under plow and product mix choices. Results. The application of the Brazilian federal water use policies will have immediate and substantial effects on agricultural area and product mix. Agricultural incomes will fall, especially in downstream areas located near major river channels.

Large Scale Ice Water Path and 3-D Ice Water Content

DOE Data Explorer

Liu, Guosheng

2008-01-15

Cloud ice water concentration is one of the most important, yet poorly observed, cloud properties. Developing physical parameterizations used in general circulation models through single-column modeling is one of the key foci of the ARM program. In addition to the vertical profiles of temperature, water vapor and condensed water at the model grids, large-scale horizontal advective tendencies of these variables are also required as forcing terms in the single-column models. Observed horizontal advection of condensed water has not been available because the radar/lidar/radiometer observations at the ARM site are single-point measurement, therefore, do not provide horizontal distribution of condensed water. The intention of this product is to provide large-scale distribution of cloud ice water by merging available surface and satellite measurements. The satellite cloud ice water algorithm uses ARM ground-based measurements as baseline, produces datasets for 3-D cloud ice water distributions in a 10 deg x 10 deg area near ARM site. The approach of the study is to expand a (surface) point measurement to an (satellite) areal measurement. That is, this study takes the advantage of the high quality cloud measurements at the point of ARM site. We use the cloud characteristics derived from the point measurement to guide/constrain satellite retrieval, then use the satellite algorithm to derive the cloud ice water distributions within an area, i.e., 10 deg x 10 deg centered at ARM site.

Blue water tradeoffs with ecosystems in a CO2-enriched climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, J. S.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Williams, A. P.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

Present and future freshwater availability and drought risks are physically tied to the competing responses of surface vegetation to increasing CO2, which includes radiative and plant physiological forcing, as well as their consequences for plant phenology, water use efficiency, and CO2 fertilization. Because Earth system models (ESMs) have increased their sophistication in representing the coupling among biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes at the land surface, projected linkages among ecosystem responses to CO2 and blue water (runoff) can be explored. A detailed analysis of the Western US demonstrates that CO2- and radiatively-induced vegetation growth drives projected decreases in soil moisture and runoff in the NCAR CESM LENS, creating a curious pattern of colocated 'greening' and 'drying.' Here we explore these responses at the global-scale and the consequences of such vegetation-driven drying on blue water availability for people. We present a simple metric that quantifies the tradeoff that occurs between ecosystems and blue water and link their occurrence to changes in daily-scale precipitation extremes, plant functional types, and changes in leaf areas. These results have implications for blue water availability for people and raise important questions about model representations of vegetation-water responses to high CO2.

Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

2014-05-01

The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

Agricultural Water Use under Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Ringler, C.; Rosegrant, M. W.

2008-12-01

Irrigation is by far the single largest user of water in the world and is projected to remain so in the foreseeable future. Globally, irrigated agricultural land comprises less than twenty percent of total cropland but produces about forty percent of the world's food. Increasing world population will require more food and this will lead to more irrigation in many areas. As demands increase and water becomes an increasingly scarce resource, agriculture's competition for water with other economic sectors will be intensified. This water picture is expected to become even more complex as climate change will impose substantial impacts on water availability and demand, in particular for agriculture. To better understand future water demand and supply under global change, including changes in demographic, economic and technological dimensions, the water simulation module of IMPACT, a global water and food projection model developed at the International Food Policy Research Institute, is used to analyze future water demand and supply in agricultural and several non-agricultural sectors using downscaled GCM scenarios, based on water availability simulation done with a recently developed semi-distributed global hydrological model. Risk analysis is conducted to identify countries and regions where future water supply reliability for irrigation is low, and food security may be threatened in the presence of climate change. Gridded shadow values of irrigation water are derived for global cropland based on an optimization framework, and they are used to illustrate potential irrigation development by incorporating gridded water availability and existing global map of irrigation areas.

Objective Assessment of Groundwater Resources for the Isle of Wight, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M.; Butler, A. P.; McIntyre, N.

2012-12-01

Water resources are of crucial importance to the UK, and are essential to agriculture and industry as well as for domestic usage. A combination of factors - population growth, climate change and increasing regulatory restriction - will alter water availability over the next fifty years, potentially leading to shortages. Groundwater systems, representing 60% of available water in the southern UK, are typically conceptualised through geological interpretation, resulting in skilful and widely used systems models. Where these models are not successful, alternative approaches to groundwater resource assessments are required. A process for objectively modelling groundwater systems from borehole level observation data is presented, along with a methodology for incorporating climate change and population growth forecasts into an assessment of future water availability. The objective assessment described is a three stage process. Firstly, the observation data can be associated into groups, in order to best represent the water table response and thus identify units with consistent storage coefficient and transport process, analogous to varying aquifer media. Here this is achieved through the use of cluster analysis, applying various distance metrics to observation variances and incorporating spatial displacement. Secondly, the resulting groups are used to generate interpolated surfaces of mean water table level. A series of interpolative methods, including stochastic approaches, are applied and cross-validated to generate the most credible groundwater surface. Thirdly, the presence and influence of spatial and temporal anomalies such as groundwater abstraction points are identified through examination of observations furthest from the final interpolated groundwater surface. This groundwater systems model can then be incorporated into a groundwater/surface model relating rainfall to water table level and river flow, which in turn is used in conjunction with state-of-the-art climate projections and population change forecasts to generate projections of change for future scenarios. A case study illustrating the use of this methodology is presented. The Isle of Wight, a small island off the south coast of England with a population of 140,000, is exceptionally water stressed by UK standards and currently dependent on mainland transfers. These transfers are under review due to environmental pressure on the neighbouring county of Hampshire. Alongside this, a high population growth rate and the southerly location make the Isle of Wight the most likely part of the UK to be affected by reduced water availability. Lower Greensands and Chalk aquifer systems provide most of the island's non-imported water, yet these remain poorly understood. The principle reason for this is the exceptionally complex geology, a result of the island's location at the convergence of two asymmetric anticlinal structures and, in the case of the Lower Greensand group, multiple layers of alternating aquiferous and non-aquiferous material. A statistical assessment of borehole data may provide evidence for groundwater processes where direct lithological analysis is not appropriate. Through development of a credible groundwater systems model and sensible projections of future water availability, critical information can be provided to influence future water management policy.

Potential impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity and water availability in China in the next 100 years

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Jennifer Moore; Corey Bunch; Jian Ni

2002-01-01

Soil erosion and water shortages threaten China’s social and economic development in the 21st century. This paper examines how projected climate change could affect soil erosion and water availability across China. We used both historical climate data (1961-1980) and the UKMO Hadley3 climate scenario (1960-2099) to drive regional hydrology and soil erosivity models....

The Role of Plant Water Storage on Water Fluxes within the Coupled Soil-Plant-Atmosphere System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C. W.; Duman, T.; Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.

2015-12-01

Plant water storage (PWS) contributes to whole-plant transpiration (up to 50%), especially in large trees and during severe drought conditions. PWS also can impact water-carbon economy as well as the degree of resistance to drought. A 1-D porous media model is employed to accommodate transient water flow through the plant hydraulic system. This model provides a mechanistic representation of biophysical processes constraining water transport, accounting for plant hydraulic architecture and the nonlinear relation between stomatal aperture and leaf water potential when limited by soil water availability. Water transport within the vascular system from the stem base to the leaf-lamina is modeled using Richards's equation, parameterized with the hydraulic properties of the plant tissues. For simplicity, the conducting flow in the radial direction is not considered here and the capacitance at the leaf-lamina is assumed to be independent of leaf water potential. The water mass balance in the leaf lamina sets the upper boundary condition for the flow system, which links the leaf-level transpiration to the leaf water potential. Thus, the leaf-level gas exchange can be impacted by soil water availability through the water potential gradient from the leaf lamina to the soil, and vice versa. The root water uptake is modeled by a multi-layered macroscopic scheme to account for possible hydraulic redistribution (HR) in certain conditions. The main findings from the model calculations are that (1) HR can be diminished by the residual water potential gradient from roots to leaves at night due to aboveground capacitance, tree height, nocturnal transpiration or the combination of the three. The degree of reduction depends on the magnitude of residual water potential gradient; (2) nocturnal refilling to PWS elevates the leaf water potential that subsequently delays the onset of drought stress at the leaf; (3) Lifting water into the PWS instead of HR can be an advantageous strategy for overstory species especially when drought progresses in the presence of competing understory species.

Water Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

A compact, lightweight electrolytic water sterilizer available through Ambassador Marketing, generates silver ions in concentrations of 50 to 100 parts per billion in water flow system. The silver ions serve as an effective bactericide/deodorizer. Tap water passes through filtering element of silver that has been chemically plated onto activated carbon. The silver inhibits bacterial growth and the activated carbon removes objectionable tastes and odors caused by addition of chlorine and other chemicals in municipal water supply. The three models available are a kitchen unit, a "Tourister" unit for portable use while traveling and a refrigerator unit that attaches to the ice cube water line. A filter will treat 5,000 to 10,000 gallons of water.

Ground-water models for water resources planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, John E.

1980-01-01

In the past decade hydrologists have emphasized the development of computer-based mathematical models to aid in the understanding of flow, the transport of solutes, transport of heat, and deformation in the groundwater system. These models have been used to provide information and predictions for water managers. Too frequently, groundwater was neglected in water-resource planning because managers believed that it could not be adequately evaluated in terms of availability, quality, and effect of development on surface water supplies. Now, however, with newly developed digital groundwater models, effects of development can be predicted. Such models have been used to predict hydrologic and quality changes under different stresses. These models have grown in complexity over the last 10 years from simple one-layer flow models to three-dimensional simulations of groundwater flow which may include solute transport, heat transport, effects of land subsidence, and encroachment of salt water. This paper illustrates, through case histories, how predictive groundwater models have provided the information needed for the sound planning and management of water resources in the United States. (USGS)

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

Olive response to water availability: yield response functions, soil water content indicators and evaluation of adaptability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riccardi, Maria; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Menenti, Massimo; Monaco, Eugenia; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Climate evolution, with the foreseen increase of temperature and frequency of drought events during the summer, could cause significant changes in the availability of water resources specially in the Mediterranean region. European countries need to encourage sustainable agriculture practices, reducing inputs, especially of water, and minimizing any negative impact on crop quantity and quality. Olive is an important crop in the Mediterranean region that has traditionally been cultivated with no irrigation and is known to attain acceptable production under dry farming. Therefore this crop will not compete for foreseen reduced water resources. However, a good quantitative knowledge must be available about effects of reduced precipitation and water availability on yield. Yield response functions, coupled with indicators of soil water availability, provide a quantitative description of the cultivar- specific behavior in relation to hydrological conditions. Yield response functions of 11 olive cultivars, typical of Mediterranean environment, were determined using experimental data (unpublished or reported in scientific literature). The yield was expressed as relative yield (Yr); the soil water availability was described by means of different indicators: relative soil water deficit (RSWD), relative evapotranspiration (RED) and transpiration deficit (RTD). Crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions and exhibit threshold responses, so for the yield functions of each olive cultivar both linear regression and threshold-slope models were considered to evaluate the best fit. The level of relative yield attained in rain-fed conditions was identified and defined as the acceptable yield level (Yrrainfed). The value of the indicator (RSWD, RED and RTD) corresponding to Yrrainfed was determined for each cultivar and indicated as the critical value of water availability. The error in the determination of the critical value was estimated. By means of a simulation model of the water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, the indicators of soil water availability were calculated for different soil units in an area of Southern Italy, traditionally cultivated with olive. Simulations were performed for two climate scenarios: reference (1961-90) and future climate (2021-50). The potentiality of the indicators RSWD, RED and RTD to describe soil water availability was evaluated using simulated and experimental data. The analysis showed that RED values were correlated to RTD. The analysis demonstrated that RTD was more effective than RED in representing crop water availability RSWD is very well correlated to RTD and the degree of correlation depends of the period of deficit considered. The probability of adaptation of each cultivar was calculated for both climatic periods by comparing the critical values (and their error distribution) with soil availability indicators. Keywords: Olea europaea, soil water deficit, water availability critical value. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

DETERMINATION OF KOW VALUES FOR A SERIES OF ARYL GLUCURONIDES

EPA Science Inventory

An important perameter in toxicokinetic modeling is the octanol/water partition coefficient (Kow). This parameter has often been used to predict the accumulation of contaminants from water to fish (Klamer and Beekman 1995); however, few Kow values are available for modeling the b...

Assessing groundwater availability in the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Pope, Jason P.; Monti, Jack; Nardi, Mark R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Resources Program is conducting an assessment of groundwater availability throughout the United States to gain a better understanding of the status of the Nation's groundwater resources and how changes in land use, water use, and climate may affect those resources. The goal of this National assessment is to improve our ability to forecast water availability for future economic and environmental uses. Assessments will be completed for the Nation's principal aquifer systems to help characterize how much water is currently available, how water availability is changing, and how much water we can expect to have in the future (Reilly and others, 2008). The concept of groundwater availability is more than just how much water can be pumped from any given aquifer. Groundwater availability is a function of many factors, including the quantity and quality of water and the laws, regulations, economics, and environmental factors that control its use. The primary objective of the North Atlantic Coastal Plain groundwater-availability study is to identify spatial and temporal changes in the overall water budget by more fully determining the natural and human processes that control how water enters, moves through, and leaves the groundwater system. Development of tools such as numerical models can help hydrologists gain an understanding of this groundwater system, allowing forecasts to be made about the response of this system to natural and human stresses, and water quality and ecosystem health to be analyzed, throughout the region.

Quantifying Water Stress Using Total Water Volumes and GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richey, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Druffel-Rodriguez, R.

2011-12-01

Water will follow oil as the next critical resource leading to unrest and uprisings globally. To better manage this threat, an improved understanding of the distribution of water stress is required today. This study builds upon previous efforts to characterize water stress by improving both the quantification of human water use and the definition of water availability. Current statistics on human water use are often outdated or inaccurately reported nationally, especially for groundwater. This study improves these estimates by defining human water use in two ways. First, we use NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to isolate the anthropogenic signal in water storage anomalies, which we equate to water use. Second, we quantify an ideal water demand by using average water requirements for the domestic, industrial, and agricultural water use sectors. Water availability has traditionally been limited to "renewable" water, which ignores large, stored water sources that humans use. We compare water stress estimates derived using either renewable water or the total volume of water globally. We use the best-available data to quantify total aquifer and surface water volumes, as compared to groundwater recharge and surface water runoff from land-surface models. The work presented here should provide a more realistic image of water stress by explicitly quantifying groundwater, defining water availability as total water supply, and using GRACE to more accurately quantify water use.

Summary of hydrologic modeling for the Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lant, Jeremiah G.; Claggett, Peter; Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Nelson, Hugh L.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Colarullo, Susan J.; Fischer, Jeffrey M.

2015-11-18

The Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) is a decision support system for the nontidal part of the Delaware River Basin that provides a consistent and objective method of simulating streamflow under historical, forecasted, and managed conditions. In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with these simulations, however, streamflow and the associated hydroclimatic variables of potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and snow accumulation and snowmelt must be simulated and compared to long-term, daily observations from sites. This report details model development and optimization, statistical evaluation of simulations for 57 basins ranging from 2 to 930 km2 and 11.0 to 99.5 percent forested cover, and how this statistical evaluation of daily streamflow relates to simulating environmental changes and management decisions that are best examined at monthly time steps normalized over multiple decades. The decision support system provides a database of historical spatial and climatic data for simulating streamflow for 2001–11, in addition to land-cover and general circulation model forecasts that focus on 2030 and 2060. WATER integrates geospatial sampling of landscape characteristics, including topographic and soil properties, with a regionally calibrated hillslope-hydrology model, an impervious-surface model, and hydroclimatic models that were parameterized by using three hydrologic response units: forested, agricultural, and developed land cover. This integration enables the regional hydrologic modeling approach used in WATER without requiring site-specific optimization or those stationary conditions inferred when using a statistical model.

Global scale groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Ludovicus; Bierkens, Marc

2013-04-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater sustains water flows in streams, rivers, lakes and wetlands, and thus supports ecosystem habitat and biodiversity, while its large natural storage provides a buffer against water shortages. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models does not include a groundwater flow component that is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle and allows the simulation of groundwater head dynamics. In this study we present a steady-state MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) groundwater model on the global scale at 5 arc-minutes resolution. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological model (e.g. Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moorsdorff, in press). We force the groundwtaer model with the output from the large-scale hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the long term net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated calculated groundwater heads and depths with available head observations, from different regions, including the North and South America and Western Europe. Our results show that it is feasible to build a relatively simple global scale groundwater model using existing information, and estimate water table depths within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Soil-Water Balance (SWB) model estimates of soil-moisture variability and groundwater recharge in the South Platte watershed, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, A. M.; Walker, E. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Ruybal, C. J.

2015-12-01

Unconventional energy production in semi-arid regions places additional stress on already over-allocated water systems. Production of shale gas and oil resources in northern Colorado has rapidly increased since 2010, and is expected to continue growing due to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. This unconventional energy production has implications for the availability of water in the South Platte watershed, where water demand for hydraulic fracturing of unconventional shale resources reached ~16,000 acre-feet in 2014. Groundwater resources are often exploited to meet water demands for unconventional energy production in regions like the South Platte basin, where surface water supply is limited and allocated across multiple uses. Since groundwater is often a supplement to surface water in times of drought and peak demand, variability in modeled recharge estimates can significantly impact projected availability. In the current work we used the Soil-Water Balance Model (SWB) to assess the variability in model estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) and soil-moisture conditions utilized to derive estimates of groundwater recharge. Using both point source and spatially distributed data, we compared modeled actual ET and soil-moisture derived from several potential ET methods, such as Thornthwaite-Mather, Jense-Haise, Turc, and Hargreaves-Samani, to historic soil moisture conditions obtained through sources including the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). In addition to a basin-scale analysis, we divided the South Platte watershed into sub-basins according to land cover to evaluate model capabilities of estimating soil-moisture parameters with variations in land cover and topography. Results ultimately allow improved prediction of groundwater recharge under future scenarios of climate and land cover change. This work also contributes to complementary subsurface groundwater modeling and decision support modeling in the South Platte.

The Role of Communicative Feedback in Successful Water Conservation Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tom, Gail; Tauchus, Gail; Williams, Jared; Tong, Stephanie

2011-01-01

The Sacramento County Water Agency has made available 2 water conservation programs to its customers. The Data Logger Program attaches the Meter Master Model 100 EL data logger to the customer's water meter for 1 week and provides a detailed report of water usage from each fixture. The Water Wise House Call Program provides findings and…

Drivers of Variability in Public-Supply Water Use Across the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worland, Scott C.; Steinschneider, Scott; Hornberger, George M.

2018-03-01

This study explores the relationship between municipal water use and an array of climate, economic, behavioral, and policy variables across the contiguous U.S. The relationship is explored using Bayesian-hierarchical regression models for over 2,500 counties, 18 covariates, and three higher-level grouping variables. Additionally, a second analysis is included for 83 cities where water price and water conservation policy information is available. A hierarchical model using the nine climate regions (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as the higher-level groups results in the best out-of-sample performance, as estimated by the Widely Available Information Criterion, compared to counties grouped by urban continuum classification or primary economic activity. The regression coefficients indicate that the controls on water use are not uniform across the nation: e.g., counties in the Northeast and Northwest climate regions are more sensitive to social variables, whereas counties in the Southwest and East North Central climate regions are more sensitive to environmental variables. For the national city-level model, it appears that arid cities with a high cost of living and relatively low water bills sell more water per customer, but as with the county-level model, the effect of each variable depends heavily on where a city is located.

Variation in piñon pine growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress using an individual-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redmond, M. D.; Kelsey, K.; Urza, A.; Barger, N. N.

2015-12-01

Forest and woodland ecosystems play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle and may be strongly affected by changing climate. Here we use an individual-based approach to model piñon pine (Pinus edulis) radial growth responses to climate across gradients of environmental stress. We sampled piñon pine trees at 24 sites across southwestern Colorado that varied in soil available water capacity, elevation, and latitude, obtaining a total of 552 pinon pine tree ring series. We used linear mixed effect models to assess piñon pine growth responses to climate and site-level environmental stress (mean annual climatic water deficit and soil available water capacity). Using a similar modeling approach, we also determined long-term growth trends across our gradients of environmental stress. Piñon pine growth was strongly positively associated with winter precipitation and strongly negatively associated with summer vapor pressure deficit. However, the strength of the relationship between winter precipitation and piñon pine growth was affected by site-level environmental stress. Trees at sites with greater climatic water deficit (i.e. hotter, drier sites) were more sensitive to winter precipitation. Interestingly, trees at sites with greater soil available water capacity were also more sensitive to winter precipitation, as these trees had much higher growth rates during years of high precipitation. We found weak evidence of long-term declines in piñon growth rates over the past century within our study area. Growth trends overtime did vary across our soil available water capacity gradient: trees growing at sites with higher soil available water capacity responded more positively to the cool, wet climate conditions of the 1910s and 1980s, whereas tree growth rates at sites with lower soil available water capacity declined more linearly over the last century. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of woodland ecosystems to changing climate will vary across the landscape due to differences in edaphic and physiographic factors. These results support recent dendroecology studies that emphasize the need to use a more individual-based approach to enhance our understanding of tree growth responses to climate.

An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources Part 2: Applications and assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.; Masuda, K.; Motoya, K.; Shirakawa, N.; Shen, Y.; Tanaka, K.

2008-07-01

To assess global water resources from the perspective of subannual variation in water availability and water use, an integrated water resources model was developed. In a companion report, we presented the global meteorological forcing input used to drive the model and six modules, namely, the land surface hydrology module, the river routing module, the crop growth module, the reservoir operation module, the environmental flow requirement module, and the anthropogenic withdrawal module. Here, we present the results of the model application and global water resources assessments. First, the timing and volume of simulated agriculture water use were examined because agricultural use composes approximately 85% of total consumptive water withdrawal in the world. The estimated crop calendar showed good agreement with earlier reports for wheat, maize, and rice in major countries of production. In major countries, the error in the planting date was ±1 mo, but there were some exceptional cases. The estimated irrigation water withdrawal also showed fair agreement with country statistics, but tended to be underestimated in countries in the Asian monsoon region. The results indicate the validity of the model and the input meteorological forcing because site-specific parameter tuning was not used in the series of simulations. Finally, global water resources were assessed on a subannual basis using a newly devised index. This index located water-stressed regions that were undetected in earlier studies. These regions, which are indicated by a gap in the subannual distribution of water availability and water use, include the Sahel, the Asian monsoon region, and southern Africa. The simulation results show that the reservoir operations of major reservoirs (>1 km3) and the allocation of environmental flow requirements can alter the population under high water stress by approximately -11% to +5% globally. The integrated model is applicable to assessments of various global environmental projections such as climate change.

Challenges for creating a site-specific groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knierim, Katherine J.; Nottmeier, Anna M.; Worland, Scott; Westerman, Drew A.; Clark, Brian R.

2017-09-01

Hydrologic budgets to determine groundwater availability are important tools for water-resource managers. One challenging component for developing hydrologic budgets is quantifying water use through time because historical and site-specific water-use data can be sparse or poorly documented. This research developed a groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010 that related county-level aggregated water-use data to site-specific well locations and aquifer units. A simple population-based linear model, constrained to 0 million liters per day in 1900, provided the best means to extrapolate groundwater-withdrawal rates pre-1950s when there was a paucity of water-use data. To disaggregate county-level data to individual wells across a regional aquifer system, a programmatic hierarchical process was developed, based on the level of confidence that a well pumped groundwater for a specific use during a specific year. Statistical models tested on a subset of the best-available site-specific water-use data provided a mechanism to bracket historic groundwater use, such that groundwater-withdrawal rates ranged, on average, plus or minus 38% from modeled values. Groundwater withdrawn for public supply and domestic use accounted for between 48 and 74% of total groundwater use since 1901, highlighting that groundwater provides an important drinking-water resource. The compilation, analysis, and spatial and temporal extrapolation of water-use data remain a challenging task for water scientists, but is of paramount importance to better quantify groundwater use and availability.

Challenges for creating a site-specific groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knierim, Katherine J.; Nottmeier, Anna M.; Worland, Scott C.; Westerman, Drew A.; Clark, Brian R.

2017-01-01

Hydrologic budgets to determine groundwater availability are important tools for water-resource managers. One challenging component for developing hydrologic budgets is quantifying water use through time because historical and site-specific water-use data can be sparse or poorly documented. This research developed a groundwater-use record for the Ozark Plateaus aquifer system (central USA) from 1900 to 2010 that related county-level aggregated water-use data to site-specific well locations and aquifer units. A simple population-based linear model, constrained to 0 million liters per day in 1900, provided the best means to extrapolate groundwater-withdrawal rates pre-1950s when there was a paucity of water-use data. To disaggregate county-level data to individual wells across a regional aquifer system, a programmatic hierarchical process was developed, based on the level of confidence that a well pumped groundwater for a specific use during a specific year. Statistical models tested on a subset of the best-available site-specific water-use data provided a mechanism to bracket historic groundwater use, such that groundwater-withdrawal rates ranged, on average, plus or minus 38% from modeled values. Groundwater withdrawn for public supply and domestic use accounted for between 48 and 74% of total groundwater use since 1901, highlighting that groundwater provides an important drinking-water resource. The compilation, analysis, and spatial and temporal extrapolation of water-use data remain a challenging task for water scientists, but is of paramount importance to better quantify groundwater use and availability.

Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

2017-08-01

The Amazon basin has experienced periodic droughts in the past, and intense and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. Landscape heterogeneity could play an important role in how tropical forests respond to drought by influencing water available to plants. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, numerical experiments were performed for a catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, even in the plateau with much deeper water table depth during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed as the soil saturation is still sufficient for the stomata to be fully open based on the empirical wilting formulation in the models. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies. The results could be applicable to other catchments in the Amazon basin with similar seasonal variability and hydrologic regimes.

A VRML-Based Data Portal: Hydrology of the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest and Mirror Lake Sub-Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M. W.; Bursik, M. I.; Schuetz, J. W.

2001-05-01

The Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) of Central New Hampshire has been a focal point for collaborative hydrologic research for over 40 years. A tremendous amount of data from this area is available through the internet and other sources, but is not organized in a manner that facilitates teaching of hydrologic concepts. The Mirror Lake Watershed Interactive Teaching Database is making hydrologic data from the HBEF and associated interactive problem sets available to upper-level and post-graduate university students through a web-based resource. Hydrologic data are offered via a three-dimensional VRML (Virtual Reality Modeling Language) interface, that facilitates viewing and retrieval in a spatially meaningful manner. Available data are mapped onto a topographic base, and hot spots representing data collection points (e.g. weirs) lead to time-series displays (e.g. hydrographs) that provide a temporal link to the spatially organized data. Associated instructional exercises are designed to increase understanding of both hydrologic data and hydrologic methods. A pedagogical module concerning numerical ground-water modeling will be presented as an example. Numerical modeling of ground-water flow involves choosing the combination of hydrogeologic parameters (e.g. hydraulic conductivity, recharge) that cause model-predicted heads to best match measured heads in the aquifer. Choosing the right combination of parameters requires careful judgment based upon knowledge of the hydrogeologic system and the physics of ground-water flow. Unfortunately, students often get caught up in the technical aspects and lose sight of the fundamentals when working with real ground-water software. This module provides exercises in which a student chooses model parameters and immediately sees the predicted results as a 3-D VRML object. VRML objects are based upon actual Modflow model results corresponding to the range of model input parameters available to the student. This way, the student can have a hands-on experience with a numerical model without getting bogged down in the details. Connecting model input directly to 3-D model output better allows students to test their intuition about ground-water behavior in an interactive and entertaining way.

Optimising The Available Scarce Water Resources At European Scale In A Modelling Environment: Results And Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Gentile, Alessandro; Udias, Angel; Bouraoui, Faycal

2013-04-01

As a next step to European drought monitoring and forecasting, which is covered in the European Drought Observatory (EDO) activity of JRC, a modeling environment has been developed to assess optimum measures to match water availability and water demand, while keeping ecological, water quality and flood risk aspects also into account. A multi-modelling environment has been developed to assess combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. These simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of those measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, low-flow frequency, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the industrial sector, and the public sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. This modeling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the land use LUMP model, the water quantity LISFLOOD model, the water quality EPIC model, the combined water quantity/quality and hydro-economic LISQUAL model and a multi-criteria optimization routine. A python interface platform (IMO) has been built to link the different models. The work was carried out in the framework of a new European Commission policy document "Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources", COM(2012)673), launched in November 2012. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study has shown that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios. First results and challenges will be presented and discussed.

Models, data available, and data requirements for estimating the effects of injecting saltwater into disposal wells in the greater Altamont-Bluebell oil and gas field, northern Uinta Basin, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freethey, Geoffrey W.

1988-01-01

Permits for disposing of salty oil-production water have been issued for 19 wells in the Greater Altamont-Bluebell field. During 1986 more than 500 million gallons of production water were injected into the Duchesne River, Uinta, and Green River Formations through 18 of these wells. The physical and chemical effects of injecting this water into aquifers containing potable water are poorly understood. Interfingering and the structural configuration of these formations add complexity to the description of the geometry and hydrogeology of the ground-water system.A preliminary assessment of the problem indicates that numerical modeling may offer a method of determining the effects of injection. Modeling possibilities include variable-density, three-dimensional flow, sectionaltransport, and areal-transport models. Data needed to develop these models can be derived from a synthesis of geologic, hydrologic, and hydrochemical data already available in the files of State and Federal agencies, oil companies, and private companies. Results from each modeling phase would contribute information for implementing the following phase. The result will be a better understanding of how water moves naturally through the groundwater system, the extent of alterations of both vertical and horizontal flow near the disposal wells, and an overall concept of the effects of deep injection on near-surface aquifers.

Development and validation of quasi-steady-state heat pump water heater model having stratified water tank and wrapped-tank condenser

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Bo; Nawaz, Kashif; Baxter, Van D.

Heat pump water heater systems (HPWH) introduce new challenges for design and modeling tools, because they require vapor compression system balanced with a water storage tank. In addition, a wrapped-tank condenser coil has strong coupling with a stratified water tank, which leads HPWH simulation to a transient process. To tackle these challenges and deliver an effective, hardware-based HPWH equipment design tool, a quasi-steady-state HPWH model was developed based on the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). Two new component models were added via this study. One is a one-dimensional stratified water tank model, an improvement to the open-source EnergyPlus watermore » tank model, by introducing a calibration factor to account for bulk mixing effect due to water draws, circulations, etc. The other is a wrapped-tank condenser coil model, using a segment-to-segment modeling approach. In conclusion, the HPWH system model was validated against available experimental data. After that, the model was used for parametric simulations to determine the effects of various design factors.« less

Development and validation of quasi-steady-state heat pump water heater model having stratified water tank and wrapped-tank condenser

DOE PAGES

Shen, Bo; Nawaz, Kashif; Baxter, Van D.; ...

2017-10-31

Heat pump water heater systems (HPWH) introduce new challenges for design and modeling tools, because they require vapor compression system balanced with a water storage tank. In addition, a wrapped-tank condenser coil has strong coupling with a stratified water tank, which leads HPWH simulation to a transient process. To tackle these challenges and deliver an effective, hardware-based HPWH equipment design tool, a quasi-steady-state HPWH model was developed based on the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). Two new component models were added via this study. One is a one-dimensional stratified water tank model, an improvement to the open-source EnergyPlus watermore » tank model, by introducing a calibration factor to account for bulk mixing effect due to water draws, circulations, etc. The other is a wrapped-tank condenser coil model, using a segment-to-segment modeling approach. In conclusion, the HPWH system model was validated against available experimental data. After that, the model was used for parametric simulations to determine the effects of various design factors.« less

Modeling Water Clarity and Light Quality in Oceans

EPA Science Inventory

Phytoplankton is a primary producer of organic compounds, and it forms the base of the food chain in ocean waters. The concentration of phytoplankton in the water column controls water clarity and the amount and quality of light that penetrates through it. The availability of ade...

Climate change impacts analysis on hydrological processes in the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serur, Abdulkerim Bedewi; Sarma, Arup Kumar

2017-12-01

The study aims to examine the variation of hydrological processes (in terms of mean annual, seasonal, and monthly) under changing climate within the Weyib River basin in Ethiopia at both basin and sub-basin level using ArcSWAT hydrologic model. The climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation characteristics within the basin have been studied using GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2, and GFDL-ESM2G models for RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6 scenarios from coupled model inter-comparison project 5 (CMIP5) which have been downscaled by SDSM. The results revealed that the mean annual temperature and precipitation reveal a statistically significant (at 5% significant level) increasing trend in the nine ESM-RCP scenarios for all the future time slices. The mean annual actual evapotranspiration, baseflow, soil water content, percolation, and water availability in the stream exhibit a rise for all the ESMs-RCP scenarios in the entire basin and in all the sub-basins. However, surface runoff and potential evapotranspiration show a decreasing trend. The mean annual water availability increases between 9.18 and 27.97% (RCP8.5), 3.98 and 19.61% (RCP4.5), and 11.82 and 17.06% (RCP2.6) in the entire basin. The sub-basin level analysis reveals that the annual, seasonal, and monthly variations of hydrological processes in all the sub-basins are similar regarding direction but different in magnitude as compared to that of the entire basin analysis. In addition, it is observed that there is a larger monthly and seasonal variation in hydrological processes as compared to the variation in annual scale. The net water availability tends to decline in the dry season; this might cause water shortage in the lowland region and greater increases in an intermediate and rainy seasons; this might cause flooding to some flood prone region of the basin. Since the variation of water availability among the sub-basins in upcoming period is high, there is a scope of meeting agriculture water demand through water transfer from sub-basin having more available water in small area to the sub-basin having less available water in a larger agricultural area.

Survey of hydrologic models and hydrologic data needs for tracking flow in the Rio Grande, north-central New Mexico, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne; Eggleston, Jack R.

2012-01-01

The six Middle Rio Grande Pueblos have prior and paramount rights to deliveries of water from the Rio Grande for their use. When the pueblos or the Bureau of Indian Affairs Designated Engineer identifies a need for additional flow on the Rio Grande, the Designated Engineer is tasked with deciding the timing and amount of releases of prior and paramount water from storage at El Vado Reservoir to meet the needs of the pueblos. Over the last three decades, numerous models have been developed by Federal, State, and local agencies in New Mexico to simulate, understand, and (or) manage flows in the Middle Rio Grande upstream from Elephant Butte Reservoir. In 2008, the Coalition of Six Middle Rio Grande Basin Pueblos entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey to conduct a comprehensive survey of these hydrologic models and their capacity to quantify and track various components of flow. The survey of hydrologic models provided in this report will help water-resource managers at the pueblos, as well as the Designated Engineer, make informed water-resource-management decisions that affect the prior and paramount water use. Analysis of 4 publicly available surface-water models and 13 publicly available groundwater models shows that, although elements from many models can be helpful in tracking flow in the Rio Grande, numerous data gaps and modeling needs indicate that accurate, consistent, and timely tracking of flow on the Rio Grande could be improved. Deficient or poorly constrained hydrologic variables are sources of uncertainty in hydrologic models that can be reduced with the acquisition of more refined data. Data gaps need to be filled to allow hydrologic models to be run on a real-time basis and thus ensure predictable water deliveries to meet needs for irrigation, domestic, stock, and other water uses. Timeliness of flow-data reporting is necessary to facilitate real-time model simulation, but even daily data are sometimes difficult to obtain because the data come from multiple sources. Each surface-water model produces results that could be helpful in quantifying the flow of the Rio Grande, specifically by helping to track water as it moves down the channel of the Rio Grande and by improving the understanding of river hydraulics for the specified reaches. The ability of each surface-water model to track flow on the Rio Grande varies according to the purpose for which each model was designed. The purpose of Upper Rio Grande Water Operations Model (URGWOM) - to simulate water storage and delivery operations in the Rio Grande - is more applicable to tracking flow on the Rio Grande than are any of the other surface-water models surveyed. Specifically, the strengths of URGWOM in relation to modeling flow are the details and attention given to the accounting of Rio Grande flow and San Juan-Chama flow at a daily time step. The most significant difficulty in using any of the surveyed surface-water models for the purpose of predicting the need for requested water releases is that none of the surface-water models surveyed consider water accounting on a real-time basis. Groundwater models that provide detailed simulations of shallow groundwater flow in the vicinity of the Rio Grande can provide large-scale estimates of flow between the Rio Grande and shallow aquifers, which can be an important component of the Rio Grande water budget as a whole. The groundwater models surveyed for this report cannot, however, be expected to provide simulations of flow at time scales of less than the simulated time step (1 month to 1 year in most cases). Of those of the currently used groundwater models, the purpose of model 13 - to simulate the shallow riparian groundwater environment - is the most appropriate for examining local-scale surface-water/groundwater interactions. The basin-scale models, however, are also important in understanding the large-scale water balances between the aquifers and the surface water. In the case of the Upper and Middle Rio Grande Valley, models 6, 10, and 12 are the most accurate and current groundwater models available.

Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2016-04-01

Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally, we provide examples of using the proposed modeling framework for analyzing water availability in a changing climate considering local conditions. Reference: Mehran A., Mazdiyasni O., AghaKouchak A., 2015, A Hybrid Framework for Assessing Socioeconomic Drought: Linking Climate Variability, Local Resilience, and Demand, Journal of Geophysical Research, 120 (15), 7520-7533, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023147

Multi-response calibration of a conceptual hydrological model in the semiarid catchment of Wadi al Arab, Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödiger, T.; Geyer, S.; Mallast, U.; Merz, R.; Krause, P.; Fischer, C.; Siebert, C.

2014-02-01

A key factor for sustainable management of groundwater systems is the accurate estimation of groundwater recharge. Hydrological models are common tools for such estimations and widely used. As such models need to be calibrated against measured values, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. We present a nested multi-response calibration approach for a semi-distributed hydrological model in the semi-arid catchment of Wadi al Arab in Jordan, with sparsely available runoff data. The basic idea of the calibration approach is to use diverse observations in a nested strategy, in which sub-parts of the model are calibrated to various observation data types in a consecutive manner. First, the available different data sources have to be screened for information content of processes, e.g. if data sources contain information on mean values, spatial or temporal variability etc. for the entire catchment or only sub-catchments. In a second step, the information content has to be mapped to relevant model components, which represent these processes. Then the data source is used to calibrate the respective subset of model parameters, while the remaining model parameters remain unchanged. This mapping is repeated for other available data sources. In that study the gauged spring discharge (GSD) method, flash flood observations and data from the chloride mass balance (CMB) are used to derive plausible parameter ranges for the conceptual hydrological model J2000g. The water table fluctuation (WTF) method is used to validate the model. Results from modelling using a priori parameter values from literature as a benchmark are compared. The estimated recharge rates of the calibrated model deviate less than ±10% from the estimates derived from WTF method. Larger differences are visible in the years with high uncertainties in rainfall input data. The performance of the calibrated model during validation produces better results than applying the model with only a priori parameter values. The model with a priori parameter values from literature tends to overestimate recharge rates with up to 30%, particular in the wet winter of 1991/1992. An overestimation of groundwater recharge and hence available water resources clearly endangers reliable water resource managing in water scarce region. The proposed nested multi-response approach may help to better predict water resources despite data scarcity.

A Data Analysis Toolbox for Modeling the Global Food-Energy-Water Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, A.; Sadegh, M.; Mallakpour, I.

2017-12-01

Water, Food and energy systems are highly interconnected. More than seventy percent of global water resource is used for food production. Water withdrawal, purification, and transfer systems are energy intensive. Furthermore, energy generation strongly depends on water availability. Therefore, considering the interactions in the nexus of water, food and energy is crucial for sustainable management of available resources. In this presentation, we introduce a user-friendly data analysis toolbox that mines the available global data on food, energy and water, and analyzes their interactions. This toolbox provides estimates of water footprint for a wide range of food types in different countries and also approximates the required energy and water resources. The toolbox also provides estimates of the corresponding emissions and biofuel production of different crops. In summary, this toolbox allows evaluating dependencies of the food, energy, and water systems at the country scale. We present global analysis of the interactions between water, food and energy from different perspectives including efficiency and diversity of resources use.

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

A multi-scale ''soil water structure'' model based on the pedostructure concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braudeau, E.; Mohtar, R. H.; El Ghezal, N.; Crayol, M.; Salahat, M.; Martin, P.

2009-02-01

Current soil water models do not take into account the internal organization of the soil medium and, a fortiori, the physical interaction between the water film surrounding the solid particles of the soil structure, and the surface charges of this structure. In that sense they empirically deal with the physical soil properties that are all generated from this soil water-structure interaction. As a result, the thermodynamic state of the soil water medium, which constitutes the local physical conditions, namely the pedo-climate, for biological and geo-chemical processes in soil, is not defined in these models. The omission of soil structure from soil characterization and modeling does not allow for coupling disciplinary models for these processes with soil water models. This article presents a soil water structure model, Kamel®, which was developed based on a new paradigm in soil physics where the hierarchical soil structure is taken into account allowing for defining its thermodynamic properties. After a review of soil physics principles which forms the basis of the paradigm, we describe the basic relationships and functionality of the model. Kamel® runs with a set of 15 soil input parameters, the pedohydral parameters, which are parameters of the physically-based equations of four soil characteristic curves that can be measured in the laboratory. For cases where some of these parameters are not available, we show how to estimate these parameters from commonly available soil information using published pedotransfer functions. A published field experimental study on the dynamics of the soil moisture profile following a pounded infiltration rainfall event was used as an example to demonstrate soil characterization and Kamel® simulations. The simulated soil moisture profile for a period of 60 days showed very good agreement with experimental field data. Simulations using input data calculated from soil texture and pedotransfer functions were also generated and compared to simulations of the more ideal characterization. The later comparison illustrates how Kamel® can be used and adapt to any case of soil data availability. As physically based model on soil structure, it may be used as a standard reference to evaluate other soil-water models and also pedotransfer functions at a given location or agronomical situation.

In ecoregions across western USA streamflow increases during post-wildfire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wine, Michael L.; Cadol, Daniel; Makhnin, Oleg

2018-01-01

Continued growth of the human population on Earth will increase pressure on already stressed terrestrial water resources required for drinking water, agriculture, and industry. This stress demands improved understanding of critical controls on water resource availability, particularly in water-limited regions. Mechanistic predictions of future water resource availability are needed because non-stationary conditions exist in the form of changing climatic conditions, land management paradigms, and ecological disturbance regimes. While historically ecological disturbances have been small and could be neglected relative to climatic effects, evidence is accumulating that ecological disturbances, particularly wildfire, can increase regional water availability. However, wildfire hydrologic impacts are typically estimated locally and at small spatial scales, via disparate measurement methods and analysis techniques, and outside the context of climate change projections. Consequently, the relative importance of climate change driven versus wildfire driven impacts on streamflow remains unknown across the western USA. Here we show that considering wildfire in modeling streamflow significantly improves model predictions. Mixed effects modeling attributed 2%-14% of long-term annual streamflow to wildfire effects. The importance of this wildfire-linked streamflow relative to predicted climate change-induced streamflow reductions ranged from 20%-370% of the streamflow decrease predicted to occur by 2050. The rate of post-wildfire vegetation recovery and the proportion of watershed area burned controlled the wildfire effect. Our results demonstrate that in large areas of the western USA affected by wildfire, regional predictions of future water availability are subject to greater structural uncertainty than previously thought. These results suggest that future streamflows may be underestimated in areas affected by increased prevalence of hydrologically relevant ecological disturbances such as wildfire.

Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

2014-10-01

Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.

Understanding Changes in Water Availability in the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo del Norte Basin Under the Influence of Large-Scale Circulation Indices Using the Noah Land Surface Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khedun, C. Prakash; Mishra, Ashok K.; Bolten, John D.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Kaiser, Ronald A.; Giardino, J. Richard; Singh, Vijay P.

2012-01-01

Water availability plays an important role in the socio-economic development of a region. It is however, subject to the influence of large-scale circulation indices, resulting in periodic excesses and deficits. An assessment of the degree of correlation between climate indices and water availability, and the quantification of changes with respect to major climate events is important for long-term water resources planning and management, especially in transboundary basins as it can help in conflict avoidance. In this study we first establish the correlation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with gauged precipitation in the Rio Grande basin, and quantify the changes in water availability using runoff generated from the Noah land surface model. Both spatial and temporal variations are noted, with winter and spring being most influenced by conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Negative correlation is observed at the headwaters and positive correlation across the rest of the basin. The influence of individual ENSO events, classified using four different criteria, is also examined. El Ninos (La Ninas) generally cause an increase (decrease) in runoff, but the pattern is not consistent; percentage change in water availability varies across events. Further, positive PDO enhances the effect of El Nino and dampens that of La Nina, but during neutral/transitioning PDO, La Nina dominates meteorological conditions. Long El Ninos have more influence on water availability than short duration high intensity events. We also note that the percentage increase during El Ninos significantly offsets the drought-causing effect of La Ninas.

LASE measurements of water vapor, aerosol, and cloud distribution in hurricane environments and their role in hurricane development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahoney, M. J.; Ismail, S.; Browell, E. V.; Ferrare, R. A.; Kooi, S. A.; Brasseur, L.; Notari, A.; Petway, L.; Brackett, V.; Clayton, M.;

Advancing Cyberinfrastructure to support high resolution water resources modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarboton, D. G.; Ogden, F. L.; Jones, N.; Horsburgh, J. S.

2012-12-01

Addressing the problem of how the availability and quality of water resources at large scales are sensitive to climate variability, watershed alterations and management activities requires computational resources that combine data from multiple sources and support integrated modeling. Related cyberinfrastructure challenges include: 1) how can we best structure data and computer models to address this scientific problem through the use of high-performance and data-intensive computing, and 2) how can we do this in a way that discipline scientists without extensive computational and algorithmic knowledge and experience can take advantage of advances in cyberinfrastructure? This presentation will describe a new system called CI-WATER that is being developed to address these challenges and advance high resolution water resources modeling in the Western U.S. We are building on existing tools that enable collaboration to develop model and data interfaces that link integrated system models running within an HPC environment to multiple data sources. Our goal is to enhance the use of computational simulation and data-intensive modeling to better understand water resources. Addressing water resource problems in the Western U.S. requires simulation of natural and engineered systems, as well as representation of legal (water rights) and institutional constraints alongside the representation of physical processes. We are establishing data services to represent the engineered infrastructure and legal and institutional systems in a way that they can be used with high resolution multi-physics watershed modeling at high spatial resolution. These services will enable incorporation of location-specific information on water management infrastructure and systems into the assessment of regional water availability in the face of growing demands, uncertain future meteorological forcings, and existing prior-appropriations water rights. This presentation will discuss the informatics challenges involved with data management and easy-to-use access to high performance computing being tackled in this project.

Modeling water resources as a constraint in electricity capacity expansion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Macknick, J.; Cohen, S.; Tidwell, V. C.; Woldeyesus, T.; Martinez, A.

2013-12-01

In the United States, the electric power sector is the largest withdrawer of freshwater in the nation. The primary demand for water from the electricity sector is for thermoelectric power plant cooling. Areas likely to see the largest near-term growth in population and energy usage, the Southwest and the Southeast, are also facing freshwater scarcity and have experienced water-related power reliability issues in the past decade. Lack of water may become a barrier for new conventionally-cooled power plants, and alternative cooling systems will impact technology cost and performance. Although water is integral to electricity generation, it has long been neglected as a constraint in future electricity system projections. Assessing the impact of water resource scarcity on energy infrastructure development is critical, both for conventional and renewable energy technologies. Efficiently utilizing all water types, including wastewater and brackish sources, or utilizing dry-cooling technologies, will be essential for transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system. This work provides the first demonstration of a national electric system capacity expansion model that incorporates water resources as a constraint on the current and future U.S. electricity system. The Regional Electricity Deployment System (ReEDS) model was enhanced to represent multiple cooling technology types and limited water resource availability in its optimization of electricity sector capacity expansion to 2050. The ReEDS model has high geographic and temporal resolution, making it a suitable model for incorporating water resources, which are inherently seasonal and watershed-specific. Cooling system technologies were assigned varying costs (capital, operations and maintenance), and performance parameters, reflecting inherent tradeoffs in water impacts and operating characteristics. Water rights supply curves were developed for each of the power balancing regions in ReEDS. Supply curves include costs and availability of freshwater (surface and groundwater) and alternative water resources (municipal wastewater and brackish groundwater). In each region, a new power plant must secure sufficient water rights for operation before being built. Water rights constraints thus influence the type of power plant, cooling system, or location of new generating capacity. Results indicate that the aggregate national generating capacity by fuel type and associated carbon dioxide emissions change marginally with the inclusion of water rights. Water resource withdrawals and consumption, however, can vary considerably. Regional water resource dynamics indicate substantial differences in the location where power plant-cooling system technology combinations are built. These localized impacts highlight the importance of considering water resources as a constraint in the electricity sector when evaluating costs, transmission infrastructure needs, and externalities. Further scenario evaluations include assessments of how climate change could affect the availability of water resources, and thus the development of the electricity sector.

Determination of scattering functions and their effects on remote sensing of turbidity in natural waters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghovanlou, A. H.; Gupta, J. N.; Henderson, R. G.

1977-01-01

The development of quantitative analytical procedures for relating scattered signals, measured by a remote sensor, was considered. The applications of a Monte Carlo simulation model for radiative transfer in turbid water are discussed. The model is designed to calculate the characteristics of the backscattered signal from an illuminated body of water as a function of the turbidity level, and the spectral properties of the suspended particulates. The optical properties of the environmental waters, necessary for model applications, were derived from available experimental data and/or calculated from Mie formalism. Results of applications of the model are presented.

Providing open hydrological data for decision making and research - hypeweb.smhi.se

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strömbäck, Lena; Andersson, Jafet; Donnelly, Chantal; Gustafsson, David; Isberg, Kristina; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Strömqvist, Johan; Arheimer, Berit

2015-04-01

Following the EU open data strategy the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is providing large parts of their databases openly available. These data are ranging from historical observations to climate predictions in various areas such as weather, oceanography and hydrology. In this presentation we will focus on the work on making hydrological data openly available. Hydrological modelling demands large amounts of spatial data, such as soil properties, land use, topography, lakes and reservoirs, ice and snow coverage, water management (e.g. irrigation patterns and regulations), meteorological data and observed water discharge in rivers. By using such data, the hydrological model will in turn provide new data that can be used for new purposes (i.e. re-purposing). In the presentation we will focus on how readily available open data from public portals have been re-purposed by using the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model in a number of large-scale model applications covering numerous subbasins and rivers. HYPE is a dynamic, semi-distributed, process-based, and integrated catchment model. So far, the following regional domains have been modelled with different resolutions (number of subbasins within brackets): Sweden (37 000), Europe (35 000), Arctic basin (30 000), La Plata River (6 000), Niger River (800), Middle-East North-Africa (31 000), and the Indian subcontinent (6 000). The model output is launched as new Open Data at the web site www.hypeweb.smhi.se. The web site provides several interactive applications for exploring results from the models. The user can explore an overview of various water variables for historical and future conditions. Moreover the user can explore and download historical time series of discharge for each basin and explore the performance of the model towards observed river flow. The available results can be used for many different purposes including; (i) Climate change impact assessments on water resources and dynamics; (ii) The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) for characterization and development of measure programs to improve the ecological status of water bodies; (iii) Design variables for infrastructure constructions; (iv) Spatial water-resource mapping; (v) Operational forecasts (1-10 days and seasonal) on floods and droughts; (vi) Input to oceanographic models for operational forecasts and marine status assessments; (vii) Research. The presentation will give an overview of the functionality of the web site and the available hydrological datasets. We will also discuss a number of challenges experienced and solutions found during the construction of the website. One such is the functionality and interface design of the web site which involves cooperation between IT-specialists and hydrologists. Here, an important goal has been the software and database design to provide an efficient website which can easily be extended with new data and functionality. Another important issue is providing relevant information about the provided datasets and models to make it easy for external user to reuse the data as well as the use of standards and limitations due to dependencies of other datasets. The openly available data has been attractive by other research teams and agencies and led to new collaborations.

Fully-Integrated Simulation of Conjunctive Use from Field to Basin Scales: Development of a Surface Water Operations Module for MODFLOW-OWHM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; Boyce, S. E.; Hanson, R. T.; Llewellyn, D.

2014-12-01

It is well established that groundwater pumping affects surface-water availability by intercepting groundwater that would otherwise discharge to streams and/or by increasing seepage from surface-water channels. Conversely, surface-water management operations effect groundwater availability by altering the timing, location, and quantity of groundwater recharge and demand. Successful conjunctive use may require analysis with an integrated approach that accounts for the many interactions and feedbacks between surface-water and groundwater availability and their joint management. In order to improve simulation and analysis of conjunctive use, Bureau of Reclamation and USGS are collaborating to develop a surface-water operations module within MODFLOW One Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM), a new version of the USGS Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW). Here we describe the development and application of the surface-water operations module. We provide an overview of the conceptual approach used to simulate surface-water operations—including surface-water storage, allocation, release, diversion, and delivery on monthly to seasonal time frames—in a fully-integrated manner. We then present results from a recent case study analysis of the Rio Grande Project, a large-scale irrigation project located in New Mexico and Texas, under varying surface-water operations criteria and climate conditions. Case study results demonstrate the importance of integrated hydrologic simulation of surface water and groundwater operations in analysis and management of conjunctive-use systems.

Agent-Based Modelling of Agricultural Water Abstraction in Response to Climate, Policy, and Demand Changes: Results from East Anglia, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swinscoe, T. H. A.; Knoeri, C.; Fleskens, L.; Barrett, J.

2014-12-01

Freshwater is a vital natural resource for multiple needs, such as drinking water for the public, industrial processes, hydropower for energy companies, and irrigation for agriculture. In the UK, crop production is the largest in East Anglia, while at the same time the region is also the driest, with average annual rainfall between 560 and 720 mm (1971 to 2000). Many water catchments of East Anglia are reported as over licensed or over abstracted. Therefore, freshwater available for agricultural irrigation abstraction in this region is becoming both increasingly scarce due to competing demands, and increasingly variable and uncertain due to climate and policy changes. It is vital for water users and policy makers to understand how these factors will affect individual abstractors and water resource management at the system level. We present first results of an Agent-based Model that captures the complexity of this system as individual abstractors interact, learn and adapt to these internal and external changes. The purpose of this model is to simulate what patterns of water resource management emerge on the system level based on local interactions, adaptations and behaviours, and what policies lead to a sustainable water resource management system. The model is based on an irrigation abstractor typology derived from a survey in the study area, to capture individual behavioural intentions under a range of water availability scenarios, in addition to farm attributes, and demographics. Regional climate change scenarios, current and new abstraction licence reforms by the UK regulator, such as water trading and water shares, and estimated demand increases from other sectors were used as additional input data. Findings from the integrated model provide new understanding of the patterns of water resource management likely to emerge at the system level.

Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Garcia-Prats, Alberto; González-Sanchis, María; Del Campo, Antonio D; Lull, Cristina

2018-10-15

Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the modeling framework. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. It is worth emphasizing that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any loss of nutrients. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Summary of hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Robinson, James L.

2004-01-01

The northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Texas, which includes the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers, supplies most of the water used for industrial, municipal, agricultural, and commercial purposes for an approximately 25,000- square-mile (mi2) area that includes the Beaumont and Houston metropolitan areas. The area has an abundant amount of potable ground water, but withdrawals of large quantities of ground water have resulted in potentiometric-surface declines in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and land-surface subsidence from depressurization and compaction of clay layers interbedded in the aquifer sediments. This fact sheet summarizes a study done in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) and the Harris-Galveston Coastal Subsidence District (HGCSD) as a part of the TWDB Ground-Water Availability Modeling (or Model) (GAM) program. The study was designed to develop and test a ground-water-flow model of the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in the GAM area (fig. 1) that waterresource managers can use as a tool to address future groundwater- availability issues.

Evaluation of the groundwater-flow model for the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Kentucky, updated to conditions in September 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Unthank, Michael D.

2013-01-01

The Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Ky., is an important water resource for the cities of Carrollton and Ghent, as well as for several industries in the area. The groundwater of the aquifer is the primary source of drinking water in the region and a highly valued natural resource that attracts various water-dependent industries because of its quantity and quality. This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the groundwater-flow system in the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Ky., published by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1999. The original model simulated conditions in November 1995 and was updated to simulate groundwater conditions estimated for September 2010. The files from the calibrated steady-state model of November 1995 conditions were imported into MODFLOW-2005 to update the model to conditions in September 2010. The model input files modified as part of this update were the well and recharge files. The design of the updated model and other input files are the same as the original model. The ability of the updated model to match hydrologic conditions for September 2010 was evaluated by comparing water levels measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements were available for 48 wells in September 2010. Overall, the updated model underestimated the water levels at 36 of the 48 measured wells. The average difference between measured water levels and model-computed water levels was 3.4 feet and the maximum difference was 10.9 feet. The root-mean-square error of the simulation was 4.45 for all 48 measured water levels. The updated steady-state model could be improved by introducing more accurate and site-specific estimates of selected field parameters, refined model geometry, and additional numerical methods. Collection of field data to better estimate hydraulic parameters, together with continued review of available data and information from area well operators, could provide the model with revised estimates of conductance values for the riverbed and valley wall, hydraulic conductivities for the model layer, and target water levels for future simulations. Additional model layers, a redesigned model grid, and revised boundary conditions could provide a better framework for more accurate simulations. Additional numerical methods would identify possible parameter estimates and determine parameter sensitivities.

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also, statistics such as the number of times certain WASSI thresholds are exceeded are calculated to show the impact of expanded irrigation during times of hydrologic drought and the coincident use of water by other sectors. Also, integrated downstream impacts of irrigation are also calculated through changes in flows through the whole river systems.

Estimates of Soil Moisture Using the Land Information System for Land Surface Water Storage: Case Study for the Western States Water Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P. W.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Levoe, S.; Reager, J. T., II; David, C. H.; Kumar, S.; Li, B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2017-12-01

Soil moisture is one of the critical factors in terrestrial hydrology. Accurate soil moisture information improves estimation of terrestrial water storage and fluxes, that is essential for water resource management including sustainable groundwater pumping and agricultural irrigation practices. It is particularly important during dry periods when water stress is high. The Western States Water Mission (WSWM), a multiyear mission project of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is operated to understand and estimate quantities of the water availability in the western United States by integrating observations and measurements from in-situ and remote sensing sensors, and hydrological models. WSWM data products have been used to assess and explore the adverse impacts of the California drought (2011-2016) and provide decision-makers information for water use planning. Although the observations are often more accurate, simulations using land surface models can provide water availability estimates at desired spatio-temporal scales. The Land Information System (LIS), developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, integrates developed land surface models and data processing and management tools, that enables to utilize the measurements and observations from various platforms as forcings in the high performance computing environment to forecast the hydrologic conditions. The goal of this study is to implement the LIS in the western United States for estimates of soil moisture. We will implement the NOAH-MP model at the 12km North America Land Data Assimilation System grid and compare to other land surface models included in the LIS. Findings will provide insight into the differences between model estimates and model physics. Outputs from a multi-model ensemble from LIS can also be used to enhance estimated reliability and provide quantification of uncertainty. We will compare the LIS-based soil moisture estimates to the SMAP enhanced 9 km soil moisture product to understand the mechanistic differences between the model and observation. These outcomes will contribute to the WSWM for providing robust products.

Growth is required for perception of water availability to pattern root branches in plants.

PubMed

Robbins, Neil E; Dinneny, José R

2018-01-23

Water availability is a potent regulator of plant development and induces root branching through a process termed hydropatterning. Hydropatterning enables roots to position lateral branches toward regions of high water availability, such as wet soil or agar media, while preventing their emergence where water is less available, such as in air. The mechanism by which roots perceive the spatial distribution of water during hydropatterning is unknown. Using primary roots of Zea mays (maize) we reveal that developmental competence for hydropatterning is limited to the growth zone of the root tip. Past work has shown that growth generates gradients in water potential across an organ when asymmetries exist in the distribution of available water. Using mathematical modeling, we predict that substantial growth-sustained water potential gradients are also generated in the hydropatterning competent zone and that such biophysical cues inform the patterning of lateral roots. Using diverse chemical and environmental treatments we experimentally demonstrate that growth is necessary for normal hydropatterning of lateral roots. Transcriptomic characterization of the local response of tissues to a moist surface or air revealed extensive regulation of signaling and physiological pathways, some of which we show are growth-dependent. Our work supports a "sense-by-growth" mechanism governing hydropatterning, by which water availability cues are rendered interpretable through growth-sustained water movement. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Growth is required for perception of water availability to pattern root branches in plants

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Water availability is a potent regulator of plant development and induces root branching through a process termed hydropatterning. Hydropatterning enables roots to position lateral branches toward regions of high water availability, such as wet soil or agar media, while preventing their emergence where water is less available, such as in air. The mechanism by which roots perceive the spatial distribution of water during hydropatterning is unknown. Using primary roots of Zea mays (maize) we reveal that developmental competence for hydropatterning is limited to the growth zone of the root tip. Past work has shown that growth generates gradients in water potential across an organ when asymmetries exist in the distribution of available water. Using mathematical modeling, we predict that substantial growth-sustained water potential gradients are also generated in the hydropatterning competent zone and that such biophysical cues inform the patterning of lateral roots. Using diverse chemical and environmental treatments we experimentally demonstrate that growth is necessary for normal hydropatterning of lateral roots. Transcriptomic characterization of the local response of tissues to a moist surface or air revealed extensive regulation of signaling and physiological pathways, some of which we show are growth-dependent. Our work supports a “sense-by-growth” mechanism governing hydropatterning, by which water availability cues are rendered interpretable through growth-sustained water movement. PMID:29317538

Groundwater availability of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Kahle, S.C.; Ely, D.M.; Burns, E.R.; Snyder, D.T.; Haynes, J.V.; Olsen, T.D.; Welch, W.B.; Morgan, D.S.

2015-09-22

Changes in the system from predevelopment times. The model also is a useful tool for investigating water supply, water demand, management strategies, groundwater-surface water exchanges, and potential effects of changing climate on the hydrologic system.

Monitoring Food Security Indicators from Remote Sensing and Predicting Cereal Production in Afghanistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pervez, M. S.; Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.

2015-12-01

We extract percent of basin snow covered areas above 2500m elevation from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-meter 8-day snow cover composites to monitor accumulation and depletion of snow in the basin. While the accumulation and depletion of snow cover extent provides an indication of the temporal progression of the snow pack, it does not provide insight into available water for irrigation. Therefore, we use snow model results from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center to quantify snow water equivalent and volume of water available within the snowpack for irrigation. In an effort to understand how water availability, along with its inter-annual variability, relates to the food security of the country, we develop a simple, effective, and easy-to-implement model to identify irrigated areas across the country on both annual and mid-season basis. The model is based on applying thresholds to peak growing season vegetation indices—derived from 250-meter MODIS images—in a decision-tree classifier to separate irrigated crops from non-irrigated vegetation. The spatial distribution and areal estimates of irrigated areas from these maps compare well with irrigated areas classified from multiple snap shots of the landscape from Landsat 5 optical and thermal images over selected locations. We observed that the extents of irrigated areas varied depending on the availability of snowmelt and can be between 1.35 million hectares in a year with significant water deficit and 2.4 million hectares in a year with significant water surplus. The changes in the amount of available water generally can contribute up to a 30% change in irrigated areas. We also observed that the strong correlation between inter-annual variability of irrigated areas and the variability in the country's cereal production could be utilized to predict an annual estimate of cereal production, providing early indication of food security scenarios for the country.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Impact of Rainfall Data Source on Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Response of a Coastal Plain Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic and water quality models are very sensitive to input parameter values, especially precipitation input data. With several different sources of precipitation data now available, it is quite difficult to determine which source is most appropriate under various circumstances. We used several ...

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillsl...

Efficient multi-objective calibration of a computationally intensive hydrologic model with parallel computing software in Python

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With enhanced data availability, distributed watershed models for large areas with high spatial and temporal resolution are increasingly used to understand water budgets and examine effects of human activities and climate change/variability on water resources. Developing parallel computing software...

Compounding Impacts of Climate Change and Increased Human Water Withdrawal on Urmia Lake Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alborzi, A.; Moftakhari, H.; Azaranfar, A.; Mallakpour, I.; Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, climate change and increase in human water withdrawal, combined, have caused ecological degradation in several terminal lakes worldwide. Among them, the shallow and hyper-saline Urmia Lake in Iran has experienced about 6 meters drawdown in lake level and 80% reduction in surface area. Here, we assess the imposed stress on Urmia Basin's water availability and Lake's ecological condition in response to coupled climate change and human-induced water withdrawal. A generalized river basin decision support system model consisting network flow is developed to simulate the basin-lake interactions under a wide range of scenarios. This model explicitly includes water management infrastructure, reservoirs, and irrigation and municipal water use. Studied scenarios represent a wide range of historic climate and water use scenarios including a historical baseline, future increase in water demand, and also improved water efficiency. In this presentation, we show the lake's water level, as a measure of lake's ecological health, under the compounding effects of the climate condition (top-down) and water use (bottom-up) scenarios. This method illustrates what combinations lead to failure in meeting the lake's ecological level.

Modeling of Soil Water Availability for Agricultural Planning at Pelaga Village, Badung Regency, Bali, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suyarto, R.; Sunarta, I. N.; Wiyanti; Padmayani, N. K. H.

2017-12-01

Pelaga Village is located in Badung regency which has the advantage in agriculture with the cultivation of coffee plants, oranges, carrots, cabbage, and chili. The physical condition of Pelaga Village which has high rainfall, bumpy areas, and sandy-sandy ground texture causes air to air to be available for plants. Based on these questions then conducted a study to determine the comparison between the available water and water requirement for agriculture. Available water was difference field capacity and permanent wilting point method and crop water requirement was using Blaney-Criddle method. The results from this research was deficit between available air and crop water requirements. Available water was 12,12% and crop water requirement in initial stage, dev. Stage, mid-season stage, and late season stage respectively, coffee 11.28%, 24.19%, 35.49%, 29.04%; cabbage 19.58%, 19.58%, 33.10%, 27.74%: carrot 14.82%, 28.61%, 28.61%, 27.95%: Orange 14.82%, 28.61%, 28.61%, 27.23%; chili, 17.37%,17.37%, 34.80%, 30.46%. Soil management that must be done is by short-term land management by sprinkling long-term soil management by means of organic material valuation, irrigation making, and terracing making.

Assessment of Long-term Irrigation Water Availability over Highly Managed and Economically Important Agricultural Region of the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Rushi, B. R.; Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Hall, S.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Adam, J. C.

2016-12-01

Agriculture contributes about 12% in Washington State's economy. Water diverted from the Columbia River Basin (CRB) is the major source of irrigation water in this region. Although agriculture accounts for 80% of this state's total water withdrawal, this sector is the first to be curtailed (i.e., irrigators do not receive their full water right allocation) while there is a water shortage. This snow dominated region is already threatened by climate change. A robust regional-scale analysis of water supply, demand, unmet crop water requirements and associated impacts is critical to develop sustainable water resources plans under climate change. This study uses a dynamically-coupled hydrologic and cropping systems model, VIC-CropSyst, a reservoir management model, ColSim, and a water curtailment model to simulate changes in surface water irrigation demand projecting 30 years in the future in response to various climate, management and economic scenarios. Five downscaled climate scenarios for each of the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (rcp4.5) and 8.5 (rcp8.5) are selected in a way that they capture the projected spread of temperature and precipitation changes for the area. Results show an increase in total water availability across the CRB. Water availability is predicted to shift earlier in the season due to warming-induced snowpack reductions. Agricultural water demand is projected to decrease by approximately 5.0% (±0.7%) and 6.9% (±0.7%) respectively across the entire CRB and the Washington portion of the CRB by 2035. Irrigation demand is expected to shift earlier in the season along with water availability. This shift in demand may cause higher amount of early season irrigation water curtailment in some highly managed watersheds of the CRB in Washington State. This reduction and shift in demand is due to a warmer climate and an elevated atmospheric CO2 level which are leading to a shorter but early starting growing season. This study does not consider any expansion of irrigated crop lands for future, or any adaption measures such as double cropping, switching to slow maturing crop varieties. Curtailment increasing in the early season and declining in the late season may require adjustments to reservoir operations unless proper adaptive measures are taken.

Monthly land cover-specific evapotranspiration models derived from global eddy flux measurements and remote sensing data

Treesearch

Yuan Fang; Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Asko Noormets; Jean-Christophe Domec; John King; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xudong Zhang; Guanghui Lin; Guangsheng Zhou; Jingfeng Xiao; Jiquan Chen

2015-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is arguably the most uncertain ecohydrologic variable for quantifying watershed water budgets. Although numerous ET and hydrological models exist, accurately predicting the effects of global change on water use and availability remains challenging because of model deficiency and/or a lack of input parameters. The objective of this study was to...

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia C.; Stamos, Christina L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Wright, Michael T.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin; Martin, Peter; Coes, Alissa L.

2015-11-24

This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

An approach to predict water quality in data-sparse catchments using hydrological catchment similarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Glendell, Miriam; Stutter, Marc I.; Helliwell, Rachel C.

2017-04-01

An understanding of catchment response to climate and land use change at a regional scale is necessary for the assessment of mitigation and adaptation options addressing diffuse nutrient pollution. It is well documented that the physicochemical properties of a river ecosystem respond to change in a non-linear fashion. This is particularly important when threshold water concentrations, relevant to national and EU legislation, are exceeded. Large scale (regional) model assessments required for regulatory purposes must represent the key processes and mechanisms that are more readily understood in catchments with water quantity and water quality data monitored at high spatial and temporal resolution. While daily discharge data are available for most catchments in Scotland, nitrate and phosphorus are mostly available on a monthly basis only, as typified by regulatory monitoring. However, high resolution (hourly to daily) water quantity and water quality data exist for a limited number of research catchments. To successfully implement adaptation measures across Scotland, an upscaling from data-rich to data-sparse catchments is required. In addition, the widespread availability of spatial datasets affecting hydrological and biogeochemical responses (e.g. soils, topography/geomorphology, land use, vegetation etc.) provide an opportunity to transfer predictions between data-rich and data-sparse areas by linking processes and responses to catchment attributes. Here, we develop a framework of catchment typologies as a prerequisite for transferring information from data-rich to data-sparse catchments by focusing on how hydrological catchment similarity can be used as an indicator of grouped behaviours in water quality response. As indicators of hydrological catchment similarity we use flow indices derived from observed discharge data across Scotland as well as hydrological model parameters. For the latter, we calibrated the lumped rainfall-runoff model TUWModel using multiple objective functions. The relationships between indicators of hydrological catchment similarity, physical catchment characteristics and nitrate and phosphorus concentrations in rivers are then investigated using multivariate statistics. This understanding of the relationship between catchment characteristics, hydrological processes and water quality will allow us to implement more efficient regulatory water quality monitoring strategies, to improve existing water quality models and to model mitigation and adaptation scenarios to global change in data-sparse catchments.

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Present Day and Future Population Dynamics of the Dengue Vector Mosquito Aedes aegypti Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhoff, D.

2017-12-01

Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. An energy balance container model termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM) solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available meteorological data. Output from WHATCH'EM is used to estimate development parameters for the immature life stages of the Ae. aegypti mosquito, allowing for assessment of habitat suitability across varying natural environments. Variability amongst different artificial containers (e.g., size, color, material, shape), shading scenarios, and water availability scenarios is also addressed. WHATCH'EM is also coupled with an Ae. aegypti life cycle model to include the effects of the aforementioned factors on survival. Projections of future climate scenarios that take into account changes not only in temperature but also precipitation, humidity, and radiative effects are used in WHATCH'EM to estimate how Ae. aegypti population dynamics may change.

Modelling water use in global hydrological models: review, challenges and directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; de Graaf, I.; Wada, Y.; Wanders, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (demand, withdrawal, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We show example studies for each of these steps. We identify We identify major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling. Examples of these are: 1) simulating reservoir operations; 2) including local infrastructure and redistribution; 3) using the correct allocations rules; 4) projecting future water demand and water use. For each of these challenges we signify promising directions for further research.

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Large-scale hydrological simulations using the soil water assessment tool, protocol development, and application in the danube basin.

PubMed

Pagliero, Liliana; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Willems, Patrick; Diels, Jan

2014-01-01

The Water Framework Directive of the European Union requires member states to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. A harmonized pan-European assessment of water resources availability and quality, as affected by various management options, is necessary for a successful implementation of European environmental legislation. In this context, we developed a methodology to predict surface water flow at the pan-European scale using available datasets. Among the hydrological models available, the Soil Water Assessment Tool was selected because its characteristics make it suitable for large-scale applications with limited data requirements. This paper presents the results for the Danube pilot basin. The Danube Basin is one of the largest European watersheds, covering approximately 803,000 km and portions of 14 countries. The modeling data used included land use and management information, a detailed soil parameters map, and high-resolution climate data. The Danube Basin was divided into 4663 subwatersheds of an average size of 179 km. A modeling protocol is proposed to cope with the problems of hydrological regionalization from gauged to ungauged watersheds and overparameterization and identifiability, which are usually present during calibration. The protocol involves a cluster analysis for the determination of hydrological regions and multiobjective calibration using a combination of manual and automated calibration. The proposed protocol was successfully implemented, with the modeled discharges capturing well the overall hydrological behavior of the basin. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Establishing an operational waterhole monitoring system using satellite data and hydrologic modelling: Application in the pastoral regions of East Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel B.; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Alemu, Henok; Pervez, Shahriar Md; Asante, Kwabena O; Karuki, Gatarwa; Taa, Asefa; Angerer, Jay

2013-01-01

Timely information on the availability of water and forage is important for the sustainable development of pastoral regions. The lack of such information increases the dependence of pastoral communities on perennial sources, which often leads to competition and conflicts. The provision of timely information is a challenging task, especially due to the scarcity or non-existence of conventional station-based hydrometeorological networks in the remote pastoral regions. A multi-source water balance modelling approach driven by satellite data was used to operationally monitor daily water level fluctuations across the pastoral regions of northern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer data were used for mapping and estimating the surface area of the waterholes. Satellite-based rainfall, modelled run-off and evapotranspiration data were used to model daily water level fluctuations. Mapping of waterholes was achieved with 97% accuracy. Validation of modelled water levels with field-installed gauge data demonstrated the ability of the model to capture the seasonal patterns and variations. Validation results indicate that the model explained 60% of the observed variability in water levels, with an average root-mean-squared error of 22%. Up-to-date information on rainfall, evaporation, scaled water depth and condition of the waterholes is made available daily in near-real time via the Internet (http://watermon.tamu.edu). Such information can be used by non-governmental organizations, governmental organizations and other stakeholders for early warning and decision making. This study demonstrated an integrated approach for establishing an operational waterhole monitoring system using multi-source satellite data and hydrologic modelling.

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human-natural system models.

PubMed

Jaeger, William K; Amos, Adell; Bigelow, Daniel P; Chang, Heejun; Conklin, David R; Haggerty, Roy; Langpap, Christian; Moore, Kathleen; Mote, Philip W; Nolin, Anne W; Plantinga, Andrew J; Schwartz, Cynthia L; Tullos, Desiree; Turner, David P

2017-11-07

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water's indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water's spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human-natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society's institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete. Published under the PNAS license.

Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated basins of the Upper Rio Grande Basin

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Study Region- Upper Rio Grande, Colorado and New Mexico, USA: Climate change is predicted to further limit the water availability of the arid southwestern U.S. In this study, the Snowmelt Runoff Model is used to evaluate impacts of increased temperature and altered precipitation on snow covered are...

Development of a Water Recovery System Resource Tracking Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambliss, Joe; Stambaugh, Imelda; Sargusingh, Miriam; Shull, Sarah; Moore, Michael

2015-01-01

A simulation model has been developed to track water resources in an exploration vehicle using Regenerative Life Support (RLS) systems. The Resource Tracking Model (RTM) integrates the functions of all the vehicle components that affect the processing and recovery of water during simulated missions. The approach used in developing the RTM enables its use as part of a complete vehicle simulation for real time mission studies. Performance data for the components in the RTM is focused on water processing. The data provided to the model has been based on the most recent information available regarding the technology of the component. This paper will describe the process of defining the RLS system to be modeled, the way the modeling environment was selected, and how the model has been implemented. Results showing how the RLS components exchange water are provided in a set of test cases.

Development of a Water Recovery System Resource Tracking Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chambliss, Joe; Stambaugh, Imelda; Sarguishm, Miriam; Shull, Sarah; Moore, Michael

2014-01-01

A simulation model has been developed to track water resources in an exploration vehicle using regenerative life support (RLS) systems. The model integrates the functions of all the vehicle components that affect the processing and recovery of water during simulated missions. The approach used in developing the model results in the RTM being a part of of a complete vehicle simulation that can be used in real time mission studies. Performance data for the variety of components in the RTM is focused on water processing and has been defined based on the most recent information available for the technology of the component. This paper will describe the process of defining the RLS system to be modeled and then the way the modeling environment was selected and how the model has been implemented. Results showing how the variety of RLS components exchange water are provided in a set of test cases.

National water, food, and trade modeling framework: The case of Egypt.

PubMed

Abdelkader, A; Elshorbagy, A; Tuninetti, M; Laio, F; Ridolfi, L; Fahmy, H; Hoekstra, A Y

2018-10-15

This paper introduces a modeling framework for the analysis of real and virtual water flows at national scale. The framework has two components: (1) a national water model that simulates agricultural, industrial and municipal water uses, and available water and land resources; and (2) an international virtual water trade model that captures national virtual water exports and imports related to trade in crops and animal products. This National Water, Food & Trade (NWFT) modeling framework is applied to Egypt, a water-poor country and the world's largest importer of wheat. Egypt's food and water gaps and the country's food (virtual water) imports are estimated over a baseline period (1986-2013) and projected up to 2050 based on four scenarios. Egypt's food and water gaps are growing rapidly as a result of steep population growth and limited water resources. The NWFT modeling framework shows the nexus of the population dynamics, water uses for different sectors, and their compounding effects on Egypt's food gap and water self-sufficiency. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for solving Egypt's water and food problem non-water-based solutions like educational, health, and awareness programs aimed at lowering population growth will be an essential addition to the traditional water resources development solution. Both the national and the global models project similar trends of Egypt's food gap. The NWFT modeling framework can be easily adapted to other nations and regions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Competition for light and water in a coupled soil-plant system

DOE PAGES

Manoli, Gabriele; Huang, Cheng -Wei; Bonetti, Sara; ...

2017-08-14

Here, it is generally accepted that resource availability shapes the structure and function of many ecosystems. Within the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) system, resource availability fluctuates in space and time whereas access to resources by individuals is further impacted by plant-to-plant competition. Likewise, transport and transformation of resources within an individual plant is governed by numerous interacting biotic and abiotic processes. The work here explores the co-limitations on water losses and carbon uptake within the SPA arising from fluctuating resource availability and competition. In particular, the goal is to unfold the interplay between plant access and competition for water and light, asmore » well as the impact of transport/redistribution processes on leaf-level carbon assimilation and water fluxes within forest stands. A framework is proposed that couples a three-dimensional representation of soil-root exchanges with a one-dimensional description of stem water flow and storage, canopy photosynthesis, and transpiration. The model links soil moisture redistribution, root water uptake, xylem water flow and storage, leaf potential and stomatal conductance as driven by supply and demand for water and carbon. The model is then used to investigate plant drought resilience of overstory-understory trees simultaneously competing for water and light. Simulation results reveal that understory-overstory interactions increase ecosystem resilience to drought (i.e. stand-level carbon assimilation rates and water fluxes can be sustained at lower root-zone soil water potentials). This resilience enhancement originates from reduced transpiration (due to shading) and hydraulic redistribution in soil supporting photosynthesis over prolonged periods of drought. In particular, the presence of different rooting systems generates localized hydraulic redistribution fluxes that sustain understory transpiration through overstory-understory interactions. Such complex SPA dynamics cannot be properly summarized by equivalent ecosystem-scale Resistor-Capacitor (RC) rep- resentation. However our results show that, with proper averaging across water flow paths, RC models can provide reasonable estimates of stand-level water and carbon fluxes during inter-storm periods.« less

Competition for light and water in a coupled soil-plant system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manoli, Gabriele; Huang, Cheng-Wei; Bonetti, Sara; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Marani, Marco; Katul, Gabriel

2017-10-01

It is generally accepted that resource availability shapes the structure and function of many ecosystems. Within the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) system, resource availability fluctuates in space and time whereas access to resources by individuals is further impacted by plant-to-plant competition. Likewise, transport and transformation of resources within an individual plant is governed by numerous interacting biotic and abiotic processes. The work here explores the co-limitations on water losses and carbon uptake within the SPA arising from fluctuating resource availability and competition. In particular, the goal is to unfold the interplay between plant access and competition for water and light, as well as the impact of transport/redistribution processes on leaf-level carbon assimilation and water fluxes within forest stands. A framework is proposed that couples a three-dimensional representation of soil-root exchanges with a one-dimensional description of stem water flow and storage, canopy photosynthesis, and transpiration. The model links soil moisture redistribution, root water uptake, xylem water flow and storage, leaf potential and stomatal conductance as driven by supply and demand for water and carbon. The model is then used to investigate plant drought resilience of overstory-understory trees simultaneously competing for water and light. Simulation results reveal that understory-overstory interactions increase ecosystem resilience to drought (i.e. stand-level carbon assimilation rates and water fluxes can be sustained at lower root-zone soil water potentials). This resilience enhancement originates from reduced transpiration (due to shading) and hydraulic redistribution in soil supporting photosynthesis over prolonged periods of drought. In particular, the presence of different rooting systems generates localized hydraulic redistribution fluxes that sustain understory transpiration through overstory-understory interactions. Such complex SPA dynamics cannot be properly summarized by equivalent ecosystem-scale Resistor-Capacitor (RC) representation. However our results show that, with proper averaging across water flow paths, RC models can provide reasonable estimates of stand-level water and carbon fluxes during inter-storm periods.

Competition for light and water in a coupled soil-plant system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manoli, Gabriele; Huang, Cheng -Wei; Bonetti, Sara

Here, it is generally accepted that resource availability shapes the structure and function of many ecosystems. Within the soil-plant-atmosphere (SPA) system, resource availability fluctuates in space and time whereas access to resources by individuals is further impacted by plant-to-plant competition. Likewise, transport and transformation of resources within an individual plant is governed by numerous interacting biotic and abiotic processes. The work here explores the co-limitations on water losses and carbon uptake within the SPA arising from fluctuating resource availability and competition. In particular, the goal is to unfold the interplay between plant access and competition for water and light, asmore » well as the impact of transport/redistribution processes on leaf-level carbon assimilation and water fluxes within forest stands. A framework is proposed that couples a three-dimensional representation of soil-root exchanges with a one-dimensional description of stem water flow and storage, canopy photosynthesis, and transpiration. The model links soil moisture redistribution, root water uptake, xylem water flow and storage, leaf potential and stomatal conductance as driven by supply and demand for water and carbon. The model is then used to investigate plant drought resilience of overstory-understory trees simultaneously competing for water and light. Simulation results reveal that understory-overstory interactions increase ecosystem resilience to drought (i.e. stand-level carbon assimilation rates and water fluxes can be sustained at lower root-zone soil water potentials). This resilience enhancement originates from reduced transpiration (due to shading) and hydraulic redistribution in soil supporting photosynthesis over prolonged periods of drought. In particular, the presence of different rooting systems generates localized hydraulic redistribution fluxes that sustain understory transpiration through overstory-understory interactions. Such complex SPA dynamics cannot be properly summarized by equivalent ecosystem-scale Resistor-Capacitor (RC) rep- resentation. However our results show that, with proper averaging across water flow paths, RC models can provide reasonable estimates of stand-level water and carbon fluxes during inter-storm periods.« less

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: part 1--securing water availability.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

The technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions were compared. Part 1 of the study focused on determining the scale of the options required to secure water availability and compared the effectiveness of different options. A spatially and temporally resolved model of California's major surface reservoirs was developed, and its sensitivity to urban water conservation, desalination, and water reuse was examined. Potential capacities of the different options were determined. Under historical (baseline) hydrology conditions, many individual options were found to be capable of securing water availability alone. Under climate change augment conditions, a portfolio approach was necessary. The water savings from many individual options other than desalination were insufficient in the latter, however, relying on seawater desalination alone requires extreme capacity installations which have energy, brine disposal, management, and cost implications. The importance of identifying and utilizing points of leverage in the system for choosing where to deploy different options is also demonstrated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional characterization of freshwater Use in LCA: modeling direct impacts on human health.

PubMed

Boulay, Anne-Marie; Bulle, Cécile; Bayart, Jean-Baptiste; Deschênes, Louise; Margni, Manuele

2011-10-15

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a methodology that quantifies potential environmental impacts for comparative purposes in a decision-making context. While potential environmental impacts from pollutant emissions into water are characterized in LCA, impacts from water unavailability are not yet fully quantified. Water use can make the resource unavailable to other users by displacement or quality degradation. A reduction in water availability to human users can potentially affect human health. If financial resources are available, there can be adaptations that may, in turn, shift the environmental burdens to other life cycle stages and impact categories. This paper proposes a model to evaluate these potential impacts in an LCA context. It considers the water that is withdrawn and released, its quality and scarcity in order to evaluate the loss of functionality associated with water uses. Regionalized results are presented for impacts on human health for two modeling approaches regarding affected users, including or not domestic uses, and expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). A consumption and quality based scarcity indicator is also proposed as a midpoint. An illustrative example is presented for the production of corrugated board with different effluents, demonstrating the importance of considering quality, process effluents and the difference between the modeling approaches.

Insights on the energy-water nexus through modeling of the integrated water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Voisin, N.; Leng, G.

2016-12-01

For sustainable energy planning, understanding the impacts of climate change, land use change, and water management is essential as they all exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production. An integrated water model representing river processes, irrigation water use and water management has been developed and coupled to a land surface model to investigate the energy-water nexus. Simulations driven by two climate change projections with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on both floods and droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the climate mitigation (RCP 4.5) and business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to energy production. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) to enable investigation of the energy-water nexus in the fully coupled Earth system.

How Conjunctive Use of Surface and Ground Water could Increase Resiliency in US?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josset, L.; Rising, J. A.; Russo, T. A.; Troy, T. J.; Lall, U.; Allaire, M.

2016-12-01

Optimized management practices are crucial to ensuring water availability in the future. However this presents a tremendous challenge due to the many functions of water: water is not only central for our survival as drinking water or for irrigation, but it is also valued for industrial and recreational use. Sources of water meeting these needs range from rain water harvesting to reservoirs, water reuse, groundwater abstraction and desalination. A global conjunctive management approach is thus necessary to develop sustainable practices as all sectors are strongly coupled. Policy-makers and researchers have identified pluralism in water sources as a key solution to reach water security. We propose a novel approach to sustainable water management that accounts for multiple sources of water in an integrated manner. We formulate this challenge as an optimization problem where the choice of water sources is driven both by the availability of the sources and their relative cost. The results determine the optimal operational decisions for each sources (e.g. reservoirs releases, surface water withdrawals, groundwater abstraction and/or desalination water use) at each time step for a given time horizon. The physical surface and ground water systems are simulated inside the optimization by setting state equations as constraints. Additional constraints may be added to the model to represent the influence of policy decisions. To account for uncertainty in weather conditions and its impact on availability, the optimization is performed for an ensemble of climate scenarios. While many sectors and their interactions are represented, the computational cost is limited as the problem remains linear and thus enables large-scale applications and the propagation of uncertainty. The formulation is implemented within the model "America's Water Analysis, Synthesis and Heuristic", an integrated model for the conterminous US discretized at the county-scale. This enables a systematic evaluation of stresses on water resources. We explore in particular geographic and temporal trends in function of user-types to develop a better understanding of the dynamics at play. We conclude with a comparison between the optimization results and current water use to identify potential solutions to increase resiliency.

Reliability of groundwater supply from a coastal aquifer in the context of climate and socio-economic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eley, Malte; Schöniger, Hans Matthias; Gelleszun, Marlene; Wolf, Jens; Schneider, Anke; Wiederhold, Helga; Meon, Günter

2017-04-01

Especially coastal areas are vulnerable in case of sea level rise and changing climate conditions. Therefore, the NAWAK study (design of sustainable adaptation strategies for infrastructures in water management under the conditions of climatic and demographic change) started in 2013. It is designed to assess impairments of groundwater availability for a coastal lowland aquifer system in North-West Germany (> 1.000 km2) in the context of climate and socio-economic changes. The research results are focused on the quantification of the groundwater availability for past and future scenarios. Impacts from both climatic and socio-economic changes on the water availability and water balance are assessed by means of hydrologic, hydrogeological and geophysical models and methods, which where developed and adapted by project partners. For the model area there are three fields of work to create the conditions for a density dependent calculation of changings in salt-freshwater budget with the numerical model d3f++ (distributed density-driven Flow). The first is the description of initial conditions in three dimensions, especially for the salt-freshwater boundary. That description is based on airborne electromagnetic data of the underground and a complex processing to identify the differences between salt and freshwater, without anthropogenic and geologic influences. A validation is possible by comparison with groundwater measurements and an online monitoring of specific conductivity. The second is the calculation and measurement of flow conditions to derive the boundary conditions and the groundwater recharge. The groundwater recharge was calculated by using the hydrologic model PANTA RHEI. It is a conceptual model with partly physic-based modules, especially for the soil water processes. The model was calibrated and validated by discharge measurements and groundwater levels. The third step is a detailed information about the spatial discretization and the reconstruction of the geologic body. The interpolation of point information's from boreholes and geologic sections was calculated with the geologic modelling software SubsurfaceViewerMX. For implementation in the groundwater model, the layers were combined to hydrogeological similar units. With this sophisticated models it is possible to model the density-dependent complex groundwater systems at large spatial scales as well as contaminant transport. The modeling analysis is focused on water-budget components (groundwater recharge, submarine groundwater discharge, surface-groundwater interaction and water supply), salt- water intrusion and sea level rise under different climate and water-use scenarios. With our models we offer the capability to evaluate possible coastal aquifer management strategies of real-world applications.

Application of the conjugate-gradient method to ground-water models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manteuffel, T.A.; Grove, D.B.; Konikow, Leonard F.

1984-01-01

The conjugate-gradient method can solve efficiently and accurately finite-difference approximations to the ground-water flow equation. An aquifer-simulation model using the conjugate-gradient method was applied to a problem of ground-water flow in an alluvial aquifer at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, Denver, Colorado. For this application, the accuracy and efficiency of the conjugate-gradient method compared favorably with other available methods for steady-state flow. However, its efficiency relative to other available methods depends on the nature of the specific problem. The main advantage of the conjugate-gradient method is that it does not require the use of iteration parameters, thereby eliminating this partly subjective procedure. (USGS)

Enhancing the water management schemes of H08 global hydrological model to attribute human water use to six major water sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanasaki, N.; Yoshikawa, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Humans abstract water from various sources to sustain their livelihood and society. Some global hydrological models (GHMs) include explicit schemes of human water management, but the representation and performance of these schemes remain limited. We substantially enhanced the human water management schemes of the H08 GHM by incorporating the latest data and techniques. The model enables us to estimate water abstraction from six major water sources, namely, river flow regulated by global reservoirs (i.e., reservoirs regulating the flow of the world's major rivers), aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, seawater desalination, renewable groundwater, and nonrenewable groundwater. All the interactions were simulated in a single computer program and the water balance was always strictly closed at any place and time during the simulation period. Using this model, we first conducted a historical global hydrological simulation at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree to specify the sources of water for humanity. The results indicated that, in 2000, of the 3628 km3yr-1 global freshwater requirement, 2839 km3yr-1 was taken from surface water and 789 km3yr-1 from groundwater. Streamflow, aqueduct water transfer, local reservoirs, and seawater desalination accounted for 1786, 199, 106, and 1.8 km3yr-1 of the surface water, respectively. The remaining 747 km3yr-1 freshwater requirement was unmet, or surface water was not available when and where it was needed in our simulation. Renewable and nonrenewable groundwater accounted for 607 and 182 km3yr-1 of the groundwater total, respectively. Second, we evaluated the water stress using our simulations and contrasted it with earlier global assessments based on empirical water scarcity indicators, namely, the Withdrawal to Availability ratio and the Falkenmark index (annual renewable water resources per capita). We found that inclusion of water infrastructures in our model diminished water stress in some parts of the world, on the other hand, daily evaluation of water supply and demand highlighted the temporal/seasonal water deficit due to their variations. The enhanced model is potentially useful for quantitative understanding of the global hydrological cycles including human activities and advancement of global water resources assessment.

Geologic Setting and Hydrogeologic Units of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kahle, Sue C.; Olsen, Theresa D.; Morgan, David S.

2009-01-01

The Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System (CPRAS) covers approximately 44,000 square miles of northeastern Oregon, southeastern Washington, and western Idaho. The area supports a $6 billion per year agricultural industry, leading the Nation in production of apples and nine other commodities (State of Washington Office of Financial Management, 2007; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2007). Groundwater availability in the aquifers of the area is a critical water-resource management issue because the water demand for agriculture, economic development, and ecological needs is high. The primary aquifers of the CPRAS are basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) and overlying basin-fill sediments. Water-resources issues that have implications for future groundwater availability in the region include (1) widespread water-level declines associated with development of groundwater resources for irrigation and other uses, (2) reduction in base flow to rivers and associated effects on temperature and water quality, and (3) current and anticipated effects of global climate change on recharge, base flow, and ultimately, groundwater availability. As part of a National Groundwater Resources Program, the U.S. Geological Survey began a study of the CPRAS in 2007 with the broad goals of (1) characterizing the hydrologic status of the system, (2) identifying trends in groundwater storage and use, and (3) quantifying groundwater availability. The study approach includes documenting changes in the status of the system, quantifying the hydrologic budget for the system, updating the regional hydrogeologic framework, and developing a groundwater-flow simulation model for the system. The simulation model will be used to evaluate and test the conceptual model of the system and later to evaluate groundwater availability under alternative development and climate scenarios. The objectives of this study were to update the hydrogeologic framework for the CPRAS using the available geologic mapping and well information and to develop a digital, three-dimensional hydrogeologic model that could be used as the basis of a groundwater-flow model. This report describes the principal geologic and hydrogeologic units of the CPRAS and geologic map and well data that were compiled as part of the study. The report also describes simplified regional hydrogeologic sections and unit extent maps that were used to conceptualize the framework prior to development of the digital 3-dimensional framework model.

Hydraulic optimization and modeling of hydro-cyclone-systems for treatment and purification of any kind of waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangemacher, Lars; Fröhlich, Siegmund; Buse, Hauke

2017-11-01

Water is an indispensable resource for many purposes and good drinking water quality is essential for mankind. This article is supposed to show the need for mobile water treatment systems and therefore to give an overview of different mobile drinking water systems and the technologies available for obtaining good water quality. The aim is to develop a simple to operate water treatment system with few processing stages such as multi-cyclone-cartridge and reverse osmosis with energy recuperation, while the focus is set on modeling and optimizing of hydrocyclone systems as the first treatment stage.

Sensitivity of power system operations to projected changes in water availability due to climate change: the Western U.S. case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Macknick, J.; Fu, T.; O'Connell, M.; Zhou, T.; Brinkman, G.

2017-12-01

Water resources provide multiple critical services to the electrical grid through hydropower technologies, from generation to regulation of the electric grid (frequency, capacity reserve). Water resources can also represent vulnerabilities to the electric grid, as hydropower and thermo-electric facilities require water for operations. In the Western U.S., hydropower and thermo-electric plants that rely on fresh surface water represent 67% of the generating capacity. Prior studies have looked at the impact of change in water availability under future climate conditions on expected generating capacity in the Western U.S., but have not evaluated operational risks or changes resulting from climate. In this study, we systematically assess the impact of change in water availability and air temperatures on power operations, i.e. we take into account the different grid services that water resources can provide to the electric grid (generation, regulation) in the system-level context of inter-regional coordination through the electric transmission network. We leverage the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) hydrology simulations under historical and future climate conditions, and force the large scale river routing- water management model MOSART-WM along with 2010-level sectoral water demands. Changes in monthly hydropower potential generation (including generation and reserves), as well as monthly generation capacity of thermo-electric plants are derived for each power plant in the Western U.S. electric grid. We then utilize the PLEXOS electricity production cost model to optimize power system dispatch and cost decisions for the 2010 infrastructure under 100 years of historical and future (2050 horizon) hydroclimate conditions. We use economic metrics as well as operational metrics such as generation portfolio, emissions, and reserve margins to assess the changes in power system operations between historical and future normal and extreme water availability conditions. We provide insight on how this information can be used to support resource adequacy and grid expansion studies over the Western U.S. in the context of inter-annual variability and climate change.

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

Modelling surface water-groundwater interaction with a conceptual approach: model development and application in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zammit, C.; McMillan, H. K.

2016-12-01

As in most countries worldwide, water management in lowland areas is a big concern for New Zealand due to its economic importance for water related human activities. As a result, the estimation of available water resources in these areas (e.g., for irrigation and water supply purpose) is crucial and often requires an understanding of complex hydrological processes, which are often characterized by strong interactions between surface water and groundwater (usually expressed as losing and gaining rivers). These processes are often represented and simulated using integrated physically based hydrological models. However models with physically based groundwater modules typically require large amount of non-readily available geologic and aquifer information and are computationally intensive. Instead, this paper presents a conceptual groundwater model that is fully integrated into New Zealand's national hydrological model TopNet based on TopModel concepts (Beven, 1992). Within this conceptual framework, the integrated model can simulate not only surface processes, but also groundwater processes and surface water-groundwater interaction processes (including groundwater flow, river-groundwater interaction, and groundwater interaction with external watersheds). The developed model was applied to two New Zealand catchments with different hydro-geological and climate characteristics (Pareora catchment in the Canterbury Plains and Grey catchment on the West Coast). Previous studies have documented strong interactions between the river and groundwater, based on the analysis of a large number of concurrent flow measurements and associated information along the river main stem. Application of the integrated hydrological model indicates flow simulation (compared to the original hydrological model conceptualisation) during low flow conditions are significantly improved and further insights on local river dynamics are gained. Due to its conceptual characteristics and low level of data requirement, the integrated model could be used at local and national scales to improve the simulation of hydrological processes in non-topographically driven areas (where groundwater processes are important), and to assess impact of climate change on the integrated hydrological cycle in these areas.

LakeMetabolizer: An R package for estimating lake metabolism from free-water oxygen using diverse statistical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke; Zwart, Jacob A.; Batt, Ryan D.; Dugan, Hilary; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Corman, Jessica; Hanson, Paul C.; Read, Jordan S.

2016-01-01

Metabolism is a fundamental process in ecosystems that crosses multiple scales of organization from individual organisms to whole ecosystems. To improve sharing and reuse of published metabolism models, we developed LakeMetabolizer, an R package for estimating lake metabolism from in situ time series of dissolved oxygen, water temperature, and, optionally, additional environmental variables. LakeMetabolizer implements 5 different metabolism models with diverse statistical underpinnings: bookkeeping, ordinary least squares, maximum likelihood, Kalman filter, and Bayesian. Each of these 5 metabolism models can be combined with 1 of 7 models for computing the coefficient of gas exchange across the air–water interface (k). LakeMetabolizer also features a variety of supporting functions that compute conversions and implement calculations commonly applied to raw data prior to estimating metabolism (e.g., oxygen saturation and optical conversion models). These tools have been organized into an R package that contains example data, example use-cases, and function documentation. The release package version is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN), and the full open-source GPL-licensed code is freely available for examination and extension online. With this unified, open-source, and freely available package, we hope to improve access and facilitate the application of metabolism in studies and management of lentic ecosystems.

Stomatal sensitivity to vapour pressure deficit relates to climate of origin in Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Bourne, Aimee E; Haigh, Anthony M; Ellsworth, David S

2015-03-01

Selecting plantation species to balance water use and production requires accurate models for predicting how species will tolerate and respond to environmental conditions. Although interspecific variation in water use occurs, species-specific parameters are rarely incorporated into physiologically based models because often the appropriate species parameters are lacking. To determine the physiological control over water use in Eucalyptus, five stands of Eucalyptus species growing in a common garden were measured for sap flux rates and their stomatal response to vapour pressure deficit (D) was assessed. Maximal canopy conductance and whole-canopy stomatal sensitivity to D and reduced water availability were lower in species originating from more arid climates of origin than those from humid climates. Species from humid climates showed a larger decline in maximal sap flux density (JSmax) with reduced water availability, and a lower D at which stomatal closure occurred than species from more arid climates, implying larger sensitivity to water availability and D in these species. We observed significant (P < 0.05) correlations of species climate of origin with mean vessel diameter (R(2) = 0.90), stomatal sensitivity to D (R(2) = 0.83) and the size of the decline in JSmax to restricted water availability (R(2) = 0.94). Thus aridity of climate of origin appears to have a selective role in constraining water-use response among the five Eucalyptus plantation species. These relationships emphasize that within this congeneric group of species, climate aridity constrains water use. These relationships have implications for species choices for tree plantation success against drought-induced losses and the ability to manage Eucalyptus plantations against projected changes in water availability and evaporation in the future. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Balancing practicality and hydrologic realism: a parsimonious approach for simulating rapid groundwater recharge via unsaturated-zone preferential flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mirus, Benjamin B.; Nimmo, J.R.

2013-01-01

The impact of preferential flow on recharge and contaminant transport poses a considerable challenge to water-resources management. Typical hydrologic models require extensive site characterization, but can underestimate fluxes when preferential flow is significant. A recently developed source-responsive model incorporates film-flow theory with conservation of mass to estimate unsaturated-zone preferential fluxes with readily available data. The term source-responsive describes the sensitivity of preferential flow in response to water availability at the source of input. We present the first rigorous tests of a parsimonious formulation for simulating water table fluctuations using two case studies, both in arid regions with thick unsaturated zones of fractured volcanic rock. Diffuse flow theory cannot adequately capture the observed water table responses at both sites; the source-responsive model is a viable alternative. We treat the active area fraction of preferential flow paths as a scaled function of water inputs at the land surface then calibrate the macropore density to fit observed water table rises. Unlike previous applications, we allow the characteristic film-flow velocity to vary, reflecting the lag time between source and deep water table responses. Analysis of model performance and parameter sensitivity for the two case studies underscores the importance of identifying thresholds for initiation of film flow in unsaturated rocks, and suggests that this parsimonious approach is potentially of great practical value.

Agricultural Model for the Nile Basin Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bolt, Frank; Seid, Abdulkarim

2014-05-01

To analyze options for increasing food supply in the Nile basin the Nile Agricultural Model (AM) was developed. The AM includes state-of-the-art descriptions of biophysical, hydrological and economic processes and realizes a coherent and consistent integration of hydrology, agronomy and economics. The AM covers both the agro-ecological domain (water, crop productivity) and the economic domain (food supply, demand, and trade) and allows to evaluate the macro-economic and hydrological impacts of scenarios for agricultural development. Starting with the hydrological information from the NileBasin-DSS the AM calculates the available water for agriculture, the crop production and irrigation requirements with the FAO-model AquaCrop. With the global commodity trade model MAGNET scenarios for land development and conversion are evaluated. The AM predicts consequences for trade, food security and development based on soil and water availability, crop allocation, food demand and food policy. The model will be used as a decision support tool to contribute to more productive and sustainable agriculture in individual Nile countries and the whole region.

Water quality modelling of an impacted semi-arid catchment using flow data from the WEAP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaughter, Andrew R.; Mantel, Sukhmani K.

2018-04-01

The continuous decline in water quality in many regions is forcing a shift from quantity-based water resources management to a greater emphasis on water quality management. Water quality models can act as invaluable tools as they facilitate a conceptual understanding of processes affecting water quality and can be used to investigate the water quality consequences of management scenarios. In South Africa, the Water Quality Systems Assessment Model (WQSAM) was developed as a management-focussed water quality model that is relatively simple to be able to utilise the small amount of available observed data. Importantly, WQSAM explicitly links to systems (yield) models routinely used in water resources management in South Africa by using their flow output to drive water quality simulations. Although WQSAM has been shown to be able to represent the variability of water quality in South African rivers, its focus on management from a South African perspective limits its use to within southern African regions for which specific systems model setups exist. Facilitating the use of WQSAM within catchments outside of southern Africa and within catchments for which these systems model setups to not exist would require WQSAM to be able to link to a simple-to-use and internationally-applied systems model. One such systems model is the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, which incorporates a rainfall-runoff component (natural hydrology), and reservoir storage, return flows and abstractions (systems modelling), but within which water quality modelling facilities are rudimentary. The aims of the current study were therefore to: (1) adapt the WQSAM model to be able to use as input the flow outputs of the WEAP model and; (2) provide an initial assessment of how successful this linkage was by application of the WEAP and WQSAM models to the Buffalo River for historical conditions; a small, semi-arid and impacted catchment in the Eastern Cape of South Africa. The simulations of the two models were compared to the available observed data, with the initial focus within WQSAM on a simulation of instream total dissolved solids (TDS) and nutrient concentrations. The WEAP model was able to adequately simulate flow in the Buffalo River catchment, with consideration of human inputs and outputs. WQSAM was adapted to successfully take as input the flow output of the WEAP model, and the simulations of nutrients by WQSAM provided a good representation of the variability of observed nutrient concentrations in the catchment. This study showed that the WQSAM model is able to accept flow inputs from the WEAP model, and that this approach is able to provide satisfactory estimates of both flow and water quality for a small, semi-arid and impacted catchment. It is hoped that this research will encourage the application of WQSAM to an increased number of catchments within southern Africa and beyond.

Water stress, water salience, and the implications for water supply planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2017-12-01

Effectively addressing the water supply challenges posed by urbanization and climate change requires a holistic understanding of the water supply system, including the impact of human behavior on system dynamics. Decision makers have limits to available information and information processing capacity, and their attention is not equally distributed among risks. The salience of a given risk is higher when increased attention is directed to it and though perceived risk may increase, real risk does not change. Relevant to water supply planning is how and when water stress results in an increased salience of water risks. This work takes a socio-hydrological approach to develop a water supply planning model that includes water consumption as an endogenous variable, in the context of Las Vegas, NV. To understand the benefits and limitations of this approach, this model is compared to a traditional planning model that uses water consumption scenarios. Both models are applied to project system reliability and water stress under four streamflow and demographic scenarios, and to assess supply side responses to changing conditions. The endogenous demand model enables the identification of feedback between both supply and demand management decisions on future water consumption and system performance. This model, while specific to the Las Vegas case, demonstrates a prototypical modeling framework capable of examining water-supply demand interactions by incorporating water stress driven conservation.

Simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the Kalamazoo County area, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Blumer, Stephen P.; Weaver, T.L.; Jean, Julie

2004-01-01

A ground-water-flow model was developed to investigate the ground-water resources of Kalamazoo County. Ground water is widely used as a source of water for drinking and industry in Kalamazoo County and the surrounding area. Additionally, lakes and streams are valued for their recreational and aesthetic uses. Stresses on the ground-water system, both natural and human-induced, have raised concerns about the long-term availability of ground water for people to use and for replenishment of lakes and streams. Potential changes in these stresses, including withdrawals and recharge, were simulated using a ground-water-flow model. Simulations included steady-state conditions (in which stresses remained constant and changes in storage were not included) and transient conditions (in which stresses changed in seasonal and monthly time scales and storage within the system was included). Steady-state simulations were used to investigate the long-term effects on water levels and streamflow of a reduction in recharge or an increase in pumping to projected 2010 withdrawal rates, withdrawal and application of water for irrigation, and a reduction in recharge in urban areas caused by impervious surfaces. Transient simulations were used to investigate changes in withdrawals to match seasonal and monthly patterns under various recharge conditions, and the potential effects of the use of water for irrigation over the summer months. With a reduction in recharge, simulated water levels declined over most of the model area in Kalamazoo County; with an increase in pumping, water levels declined primarily near pumping centers. Because withdrawals by wells intercept water that would have discharged possibly to a stream or lake, model simulations indicated that streamflow was reduced with increased withdrawals. With withdrawal and consumption of water for irrigation, simulated water levels declined. Assuming a reduction in recharge due to urbanization, water levels declined and flow to streams was reduced based on steady-state simulation results. Transient results indicated a reduction of water levels with the simulated use of water for irrigation over the summer months. Generally the transient simulation with recharge only in the winter provided the best fit to observed water levels collected during synoptic water-level measurements in some wells and to the trends observed in water levels for other wells. Analysis of the regional hydrologic budgets provides an increased understanding of water movement within the ground-water-flow system in Kalamazoo County. Budgets for the steady-state simulations indicated that with reduced recharge, less water was available for streamflow and less water left the model area through the model boundaries. Similarly, with an increase in pumping rates, less water was available to enter streams and become streamflow. When recharge was assumed to remain constant and when it was allowed to vary throughout the year, the amount of water that entered storage was greater than that which left storage. However, when recharge was distributed through October?May only or when recharge rates were reduced from October to May, the amount of water that entered storage was less than that which left storage. Thus, on the basis of model simulations, with reduced recharge or increased withdrawals, water must come from storage, rivers, or from ground-flow-system boundaries to meet withdrawal demands.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Management using RISAT-1 derived Flood Inundation Areas, Cartosat-1 DEM and a River Flow Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuldeep, K.; Garg, P. K.; Garg, R. D.

2017-12-01

The frequent occurrence of repeated flood events in many regions of the world causing damage to human life and property has augmented the need for effective flood risk management. Microwave satellite data is becoming an indispensable asset for monitoring of many environmental and climatic applications as numerous space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors are offering the data with high spatial resolutions and multi-polarization capabilities. The implementation and execution of Flood mapping, monitoring and management applications has become easier with the availability of SAR data which has obvious advantages over optical data due to its all weather, day and night capabilities. In this study, the exploitation of the SAR dataset for hydraulic modelling and disaster management has been highlighted using feature extraction techniques for water area identification and water level extraction within the floodplain. The availability of high precision digital elevation model generated from the Cartosat-1 stereo pairs has enhanced the capability of retrieving the water depth maps by incorporating the SAR derived flood extent maps. This paper illustrates the flood event on June 2013 in Yamuna River, Haryana, India. The water surface profile computed by combining the topographic data with the RISAT-1 data accurately reflects the true water line. Water levels that were computed by carrying out the modelling using hydraulic model in HECRAS also suggest that the water surface profiles provided by the combined use of topographic data and SAR accurately reflect the true water line. The proposed approach has also been found better in extraction of inundation within vegetated areas.

Development of an Integrated Agricultural Planning Model Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santikayasa, I. P.

2016-01-01

The goal of this study is to develop an agriculture planning model in order to sustain the future water use under the estimation of crop water requirement, water availability and future climate projection. For this purpose, the Citarum river basin which is located in West Java - Indonesia is selected as the study area. Two emission scenarios A2 and B2 were selected. For the crop water requirement estimation, the output of HadCM3 AOGCM is statistically downscale using SDSM and used as the input for WEAP model developed by SEI (Stockholm Environmental Institute). The reliability of water uses is assessed by comparing the irrigation water demand and the water allocation for the irrigation area. The water supply resources are assessed using the water planning tool. This study shows that temperature and precipitation over the study area are projected to increase in the future. The water availability was projected to increase under both A2 and B2 emission scenarios in the future. The irrigation water requirement is expected to decrease in the future under A2 and B2 scenarios. By comparing the irrigation water demand and water allocation for irrigation, the reliability of agriculture water use is expected to change in the period of 2050s and 2080s while the reliability will not change in 2020s. The reliability under A2 scenario is expected to be higher than B2 scenario. The combination of WEAP and SDSM is significance to use in assessing and allocating the water resources in the region.

What Does a Multilayer Canopy Model Tell Us About Our Current Understanding of Snow-Canopy Unloading?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, L. E.; Paw U, K. T.; Dahlke, H. E.

2017-12-01

In the Western U.S., future water resources depend on the forested mountain snowpack. The variations in and estimates of forest mountain snow volume are vital to projecting annual water availability; yet, snow forest processes are not fully known. Most snow models calculate snow-canopy unloading based on time, temperature, Leaf Area Index (LAI), and/or wind speed. While models crudely consider the canopy shape via LAI, current models typically do not consider the vertical canopy structure or varied energetics within multiple canopy layers. Vertical canopy structure influences the spatiotemporal distribution of snow, and therefore ultimately determines the degree and extent by which snow alters both the surface energy balance and water availability. Within the canopy both the snowpack and energetic exposures to the snowpack (wind, shortwave and longwave radiation, turbulent heat fluxes etc.) vary widely in the vertical. The water and energy balance in each layer is dependent on all other layers. For example, increased snow canopy content in the top of the canopy will reduce available shortwave radiation at the bottom and snow unloading in a mid-layer can cascade and remove snow from all the lower layers. We examined vertical interactions and structures of the forest canopy on the impact of unloading utilizing the Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil-Algorithm (ACASA), a multilayer soil-vegetation-atmosphere numerical model based on higher-order closure of turbulence equations. Our results demonstrate how a multilayer model can be used to elucidate the physical processes of snow unloading, and could help researchers better parameterize unloading in snow-hydrology models.

The evaluation of the climate change effects on maize and fennel cultivation by means of an hydrological physically based model: the case study of an irrigated district of southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfante, A.; Alfieri, M. S.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Fiorentino, N.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

The effect of climate change on irrigated agricultural systems will be different from area to area depending on some factors as: (i) water availability, (ii) crop water demand (iii) soil hydrological behavior and (iv) irrigation management strategy. The adaptation of irrigated crop systems to future climate change can be supported by physically based model which simulate the water and heat fluxes in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effects of climate change on the heat and water balance of a maize-fennel rotation. This was applied to a on-demand irrigation district of Southern Italy ("Destra Sele", Campania Region, 22.645 ha). Two climate scenarios were considered, current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050), the latter constructed by applying statistical downscaling to GCMs scenarios. For each climate scenario the soil moisture regime of the selected study area was calculated by means of a simulation model of the soil-water-atmosphere system (SWAP). Synthetic indicators of the soil water regimes (e.g., crop water stress index - CWSI, available water content) have been calculated and impacts evaluated taking into account the yield response functions to water availability of different cultivars. Different irrigation delivering strategies were also simulated. The hydrological model SWAP was applied to the representative soils of the whole area (20 soil units) for which the soil hydraulic properties were derived by means of pedo-transfer function (HYPRES) tested and validated on the typical soils in the study area. Upper boundary conditions were derived from two climate scenarios, i.e. current and future. Unit gradient in soil water potential was set as lower boundary condition. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were derived from field experiments, in the same area, where the SWAP model was calibrated and validated. The results obtained have shown a significant increase of CWSI in the future climate scenario, and some spatial patterns strongly influenced by the soils characteristics. Adaptability of different maize cultivars has been evaluated. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: Plant Adaptative capacity, SWAP, Climate changes, Maize, Fennel

Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM) ecological model documentation volume 1: Estuarine prey fish biomass availability v1.0.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie S.; Conzelmann, Craig; Daugherty, Adam; Lorenz, Jerome L.; Hunnicutt, Christina; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2011-01-01

Estuarine fish serve as an important prey base in the Greater Everglades ecosystem for key fauna such as wading birds, crocodiles, alligators, and piscivorous fishes. Human-made changes to freshwater flow across the Greater Everglades have resulted in less freshwater flow into the fringing estuaries and coasts. These changes in freshwater input have altered salinity patterns and negatively affected primary production of the estuarine fish prey base. Planned restoration projects should affect salinity and water depth both spatially and temporally and result in an increase in appropriate water conditions in areas occupied by estuarine fish. To assist in restoration planning, an ecological model of estuarine prey fish biomass availability was developed as an evaluation tool to aid in the determination of acceptable ranges of salinity and water depth. Comparisons of model output to field data indicate that the model accurately predicts prey biomass in the estuarine regions of the model domain. This model can be used to compare alternative restoration plans and select those that provide suitable conditions.

Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Studies of global hydrologic cycles, carbon cycles and climate change are greatly facilitated when global estimates of evapotranspiration (E) are available. We have developed an air-relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balance, and e...

C-SWAT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool with consolidated input files in alleviating computational burden of recursive simulations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The temptation to include model parameters and high resolution input data together with the availability of powerful optimization and uncertainty analysis algorithms has significantly enhanced the complexity of hydrologic and water quality modeling. However, the ability to take advantage of sophist...

A thermal-based remote sensing modelling system for estimating crop water use and stress from field to regional scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Thermal-infrared remote sensing of land surface temperature provides valuable information for quantifying root-zone water availability, evapotranspiration (ET) and crop condition. A thermal-based scheme, called the Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model, solves for the soil/substrate and canopy temp...

Modelling of growth of aflatoxigenic A. flavus isolates from red chilli powder as a function of water availability.

PubMed

Marín, Sonia; Colom, Carmen; Sanchis, Vicente; Ramos, Antonio J

2009-01-15

The aim of the present work was to apply mathematical models for the prediction of growth of aflatoxigenic moulds in powdered Capsicum fruits as a function of its water availability. As prevention of fungal growth effectively conduces to prevention of mycotoxin accumulation, the development of models for prediction of growth of mycotoxigenic fungi becomes a key step in risk management. Two aflatoxigenic A. flavus from chilli powder were grown on 3% chilli powder extract agar at different water activity levels and their growth was evaluated over time in terms of colony sizes and ergosterol accumulation. Both variables were modelled over time, and the resulting parameters (growth rates and lag phases) were modelled as a function of water availability using the Rosso cardinal model. Linear logistic regression was also applied to predict the probability of growth over storage time. Both isolates showed a similar pattern of behaviour, with decreasing growth rates and increasing lag phases with decreasing water activity level. While estimation of optimum a(w) for growth was consistently around 0.97-0.99, the minimum estimated a(w) varied from 0.82 to 0.88 depending on the isolate and on the parameters used for predictions. Comparing growth rates obtained for colony size and ergosterol accumulation, a linear relationship between them could be observed. The rate of root square ergosterol/colony diameter/unit of time was 0.25-0.27. Probabilities of growth before 10 days over 90% were estimated at a(w) 0.91, while the safe period could be extended to more than 20 days (22-29 days) if water activity was decreased to an a(w)=0.87. Finally, the probability of growth is always under 50% when water availability is under a(w) 0.85, and almost null for A. flavus UdLTA 3.147. It was concluded that for safe production, storage and transport, chillies and chilli powder must be kept under 31% mc (db) (probability of growth <50%). However, growth is unlikely to occur if chilli is kept at approx. 34% for less than 10 days, or at approx. 33% for less than 20 days. Careful hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) techniques during raw material production and the subsequent stages of drying, transportation, elaboration and storage are indispensable.

Topographic, edaphic, and vegetative controls on plant-available water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dymond, Salli F.; Bradford, John B.; Bolstad, Paul V.; Kolka, Randall K.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; DeSutter, Thomas S.

2017-01-01

Soil moisture varies within landscapes in response to vegetative, physiographic, and climatic drivers, which makes quantifying soil moisture over time and space difficult. Nevertheless, understanding soil moisture dynamics for different ecosystems is critical, as the amount of water in a soil determines a myriad ecosystem services and processes such as net primary productivity, runoff, microbial decomposition, and soil fertility. We investigated the patterns and variability in in situ soil moisture measurements converted to plant-available water across time and space under different vegetative cover types and topographic positions at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA). From 0 – 228.6 cm soil depth, plant-available water was significantly higher under the hardwoods (12%), followed by the aspen (8%) and red pine (5%) cover types. Across the same soil depth, toeslopes were wetter (mean plant-available water = 10%) than ridges and backslopes (mean plant-available water was 8%), although these differences were not statistically significant (p < 0.05). Using a mixed model of fixed and random effects, we found that cover type, soil texture, and time were related to plant-available water and that topography was not significantly related to plant-available water within this low-relief landscape. Additionally, during the three-year monitoring period, red pine and quaking aspen sites experienced plant-available water levels that may be considered limiting to plant growth and function. Given that increasing temperatures and more erratic precipitation patterns associated with climate change may result in decreased soil moisture in this region, these species may be sensitive and vulnerable to future shifts in climate.

Modeling seasonal changes in live fuel moisture and equivalent water thickness using a cumulative water balance index

Treesearch

Philip E. Dennison; Dar A. Roberts; Sommer R. Thorgusen; Jon C. Regelbrugge; David Weise; Christopher Lee

2003-01-01

Live fuel moisture, an important determinant of fire danger in Mediterranean ecosystems, exhibits seasonal changes in response to soil water availability. Both drought stress indices based on meteorological data and remote sensing indices based on vegetation water absorption can be used to monitor live fuel moisture. In this study, a cumulative water balance index (...

Processing, Analysis, and General Evaluation of Well-Driller Logs for Estimating Hydrogeologic Parameters of the Glacial Sediments in a Ground-Water Flow Model of the Lake Michigan Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arihood, Leslie D.

2009-01-01

In 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey began a pilot study for the National Assessment of Water Availability and Use Program to assess the availability of water and water use in the Great Lakes Basin. Part of the study involves constructing a ground-water flow model for the Lake Michigan part of the Basin. Most ground-water flow occurs in the glacial sediments above the bedrock formations; therefore, adequate representation by the model of the horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the glacial sediments is important to the accuracy of model simulations. This work processed and analyzed well records to provide the hydrogeologic parameters of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity and ground-water levels for the model layers used to simulated ground-water flow in the glacial sediments. The methods used to convert (1) lithology descriptions into assumed values of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity for entire model layers, (2) aquifer-test data into point values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity, and (3) static water levels into water-level calibration data are presented. A large data set of about 458,000 well driller well logs for monitoring, observation, and water wells was available from three statewide electronic data bases to characterize hydrogeologic parameters. More than 1.8 million records of lithology from the well logs were used to create a lithologic-based representation of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity of the glacial sediments. Specific-capacity data from about 292,000 well logs were converted into horizontal hydraulic conductivity values to determine specific values of horizontal hydraulic conductivity and its aerial variation. About 396,000 well logs contained data on ground-water levels that were assembled into a water-level calibration data set. A lithology-based distribution of hydraulic conductivity was created by use of a computer program to convert well-log lithology descriptions into aquifer or nonaquifer categories and to calculate equivalent horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities (K and KZ, respectively) for each of the glacial layers of the model. The K was based on an assumed value of 100 ft/d (feet per day) for aquifer materials and 1 ft/d for nonaquifer materials, whereas the equivalent KZ was based on an assumed value of 10 ft/d for aquifer materials and 0.001 ft/d for nonaquifer materials. These values were assumed for convenience to determine a relative contrast between aquifer and nonaquifer materials. The point values of K and KZ from wells that penetrate at least 50 percent of a model layer were interpolated into a grid of values. The K distribution was based on an inverse distance weighting equation that used an exponent of 2. The KZ distribution used inverse distance weighting with an exponent of 4 to represent the abrupt change in KZ that commonly occurs between aquifer and nonaquifer materials. The values of equivalent hydraulic conductivity for aquifer sediments needed to be adjusted to actual values in the study area for the ground-water flow modeling. The specific-capacity data (discharge, drawdown, and time data) from the well logs were input to a modified version of the Theis equation to calculate specific capacity based horizontal hydraulic conductivity values (KSC). The KSC values were used as a guide for adjusting the assumed value of 100 ft/d for aquifer deposits to actual values used in the model. Water levels from well logs were processed to improve reliability of water levels for comparison to simulated water levels in a model layer during model calibration. Water levels were interpolated by kriging to determine a composite water-level surface. The difference between the kriged surface and individual water levels was used to identify outlier water levels. Examination of the well-log lithology data in map form revealed that the data were not only useful for model input, but also were useful for understanding th

Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toth, Elena

2013-04-01

The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation approach is then applied for modelling the streamflow originated in the fourth, ungauged, diversion watershed. Finally, the potential reservoir water availability is estimated, hypothesising to take from the diversion catchments all the streamflow exceeding the minimum flow requirements. The results indicate that modifying the water intake structures might allow a consistent increase in the storage volumes in the reservoir during the water scarcity periods: the water available to the reservoir would in fact - on average - increase of around the 13% of the abstracted annual volume.

Quantification of uncertainties related to the regional application of a conceptual hydrological model in Benin (West Africa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

2003-04-01

A conceptual model is presented to simulate the water fluxes of regional catchments in Benin (West Africa). The model is applied in the framework of the IMPETUS project (an integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa) which aims to assess the effects of environmental and anthropogenic changes on the regional hydrological processes and on the water availability in Benin. In order to assess the effects of decreasing precipitation and increasing human activities on the hydrological processes in the upper Ouémé valley, a scenario analysis is performed to predict possible changes. Therefore a regional hydrological model is proposed which reproduces the recent hydrological processes, and which is able to consider the changes of landscape properties.The study presented aims to check the validity of the conceptual and lumped model under the conditions of the subhumid tree savannah and therefore analyses the importance of possible sources of uncertainty. Main focus is set on the uncertainties caused by input data, model parameters and model structure. As the model simulates the water fluxes at the catchment outlet of the Térou river (3133 km2) in a sufficient quality, first results of a scenario analysis are presented. Changes of interest are the expected future decrease in amount and temporal structure of the precipitation (e.g. minus X percent precipitation during the whole season versus minus X percent precipitation in the end of the rainy season, alternatively), the decrease in soil water storage capacity which is caused by erosion, and the increasing consumption of ground water for drinking water and agricultural purposes. Resuming from the results obtained, the perspectives of lumped and conceptual models are discussed with special regard to available management options of this kind of models. Advantages and disadvantages compared to alternative model approaches (process based, physics based) are discussed.

Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

Integrated water flow model and modflow-farm process: A comparison of theory, approaches, and features of two integrated hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dogrul, Emin C.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hanson, Randall T.; Kadir, Tariq; Chung, Francis

2016-01-01

Effective modeling of conjunctive use of surface and subsurface water resources requires simulation of land use-based root zone and surface flow processes as well as groundwater flows, streamflows, and their interactions. Recently, two computer models developed for this purpose, the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) from the California Department of Water Resources and the MODFLOW with Farm Process (MF-FMP) from the US Geological Survey, have been applied to complex basins such as the Central Valley of California. As both IWFM and MFFMP are publicly available for download and can be applied to other basins, there is a need to objectively compare the main approaches and features used in both models. This paper compares the concepts, as well as the method and simulation features of each hydrologic model pertaining to groundwater, surface water, and landscape processes. The comparison is focused on the integrated simulation of water demand and supply, water use, and the flow between coupled hydrologic processes. The differences in the capabilities and features of these two models could affect the outcome and types of water resource problems that can be simulated.

The Need for Regular Monitoring and Prediction of Ephemeral Water Bodies in SERVIR Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Eric

2017-01-01

With remote sensing and modeling techniques available today it is possible to regularly identify and monitor the presence of surface water globally, for a wide range of applications. Many of the available datasets and tools, however, do not adequately resolve small or ephemeral water bodies in a timely enough fashion to make local and subnational decisions about water resources management in developing regions. This presentation introduces a specific need focused on a basin in Senegal to develop a capability to identify and disseminate timely information on small and ephemeral water bodies, and we seek feedback on methods proposed to address this need.

Seasonal scale water deficit forecasting in Africa and the Middle East using NASA's Land Information System (LIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Getirana, Augusto; Kumar, Sujay V.; Roningen, Jeanne; Zaitchik, Ben; McNally, Amy; Koster, Randal D.; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2017-04-01

Drought and water scarcity are among the important issues facing several regions within Africa and the Middle East. A seamless and effective monitoring and early warning system is needed by regional/national stakeholders. Such system should support a proactive drought management approach and mitigate the socio-economic losses up to the extent possible. In this presentation, we report on the ongoing development and validation of a seasonal scale water deficit forecasting system based on NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and seasonal climate forecasts. First, our presentation will focus on the implementation and validation of the LIS models used for drought and water availability monitoring in the region. The second part will focus on evaluating drought and water availability forecasts. Finally, details will be provided of our ongoing collaboration with end-user partners in the region (e.g., USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network, FEWS NET), on formulating meaningful early warning indicators, effective communication and seamless dissemination of the monitoring and forecasting products through NASA's web-services. The water deficit forecasting system thus far incorporates NOAA's Noah land surface model (LSM), version 3.3, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, version 4.12, NASA GMAO's Catchment LSM, and the Noah Multi-Physics (MP) LSM (the latter two incorporate prognostic water table schemes). In addition, the LSMs' surface and subsurface runoff are routed through the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) to simulate surface water dynamics. The LSMs are driven by NASA/GMAO's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the USGS and UCSB Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) daily rainfall dataset. The LIS software framework integrates these forcing datasets and drives the four LSMs and HyMAP. The Land Verification Toolkit (LVT) is used for the evaluation of the LSMs, as it provides model ensemble metrics and the ability to compare against a variety of remotely sensed measurements, like different evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture products, and other reanalysis datasets that are available for this region. Comparison of the models' energy and hydrological budgets will be shown for this region (and sub-basin level, e.g., Blue Nile River) and time period (1981-2015), along with evaluating ET, streamflow, groundwater storage and soil moisture, using evaluation metrics (e.g., anomaly correlation, RMSE, etc.). The system uses seasonal climate forecasts from NASA's GMAO (the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System, version 2, and it produces forecasts of soil moisture, ET and streamflow out to 6 months in the future. Forecasts of those variables are formulated in terms of indicators to provide forecasts of drought and water availability in the region.

Studies on kinetics of water quality factors to establish water transparency model in Neijiang River, China.

PubMed

Li, Ronghui; Pan, Wei; Guo, Jinchuan; Pang, Yong; Wu, Jianqiang; Li, Yiping; Pan, Baozhu; Ji, Yong; Ding, Ling

2014-05-01

The basis for submerged plant restoration in surface water is to research the complicated dynamic mechanism of water transparency. In this paper, through the impact factor analysis of water transparency, the suspended sediment, dissolved organic matter, algae were determined as three main impactfactors for water transparency of Neijiang River in Eastern China. And the multiple regression equation of water transparency and sediment concentration, permanganate index, chlorophyll-a concentration was developed. Considering the complicated transport and transformation of suspended sediment, dissolved organic matter and algae, numerical model of them were developed respectively for simulating the dynamic process. Water transparency numerical model was finally developed by coupling the sediment, water quality, and algae model. These results showed that suspended sediment was a key factor influencing water transparency of Neijiang River, the influence of water quality indicated by chemical oxygen demand and algal concentration indicated by chlorophyll a were indeterminate when their concentrations were lower, the influence was more obvious when high concentrations are available, such three factors showed direct influence on water transparency.

The Evolution of Sulfide in Shallow Aquatic Ecosystem Sediments: An Analysis of the Roles of Sulfate, Organic Carbon, and Iron and Feedback Constraints Using Structural Equation Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollman, C. D.; Swain, E. B.; Bael, D.; Myrbo, A.; Monson, P.; Shore, M. D.

2017-11-01

The generation of elevated concentrations of sulfide in sediment pore waters that are toxic to rooted macrophytes is problematic in both marine and freshwaters. In marine waters, biogeochemical conditions that lead to toxic levels of sulfide generally relate to factors that affect oxygen dynamics or the sediment iron concentration. In freshwaters, increases in surface water sulfate have been implicated in decline of Zizania palustris (wild rice), which is important in wetlands across the Great Lakes region of North America. We developed a structural equation (SE) model to elucidate key variables that govern the evolution of sulfide in pore waters in shallow aquatic habitats that are potentially capable of supporting wild rice. The conceptual basis for the model is the hypothesis that dissimilatory sulfate reduction is limited by the availability of both sulfate and total organic carbon (TOC) in the sediment. The conceptual model also assumes that pore water sulfide concentrations are constrained by the availability of pore water iron and that sediment iron supports the supply of dissolved iron to the pore water. A key result from the SE model is that variations in three external variables (sulfate, sediment TOC, and sediment iron) contribute nearly equally to the observed variations in pore water sulfide. As a result, management efforts to mitigate against the toxic effects of pore water sulfide on macrophytes such as wild rice should approach defining a protective sulfate threshold as an exercise tailored to the geochemistry of each site that quantitatively considers the effects of ambient concentrations of sediment Fe and TOC.

Modelling evapotranspiration using the modified Penman-Monteith equation and MODIS data over the Albany Thicket in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwate, O.; Mantel, Sukhmani K.; Palmer, Anthony R.; Gibson, Lesley A.

2016-10-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the least understood components of the water cycle, particularly in data scarce areas. In a context of climate change, evaluating water vapour fluxes of a particular area is crucial to help understand dynamics in water balance. In data scarce areas, ET modelling becomes vital. The study modelled ET using the Penman-Monteith- Leuning (PML) equation forced by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) and MODIS albedo with ancillary meteorological data from an automatic weather station. The study area is located on the Albany Thicket (AT) biome of South Africa and the dominant plant species is Portulacaria afra. The biggest challenge to the implementation of the PML is the parameterisation of surface and stomatal conductance. We tested the use of volumetric soil water content (fswc), precipitation and equilibrium evaporation ratio (fzhang) and soil drying after precipitation (f) approaches to account for the fraction (f) of evaporation from the soil. ET from the model was validated using an eddy covariance system (EC). Post processing of eddy covariance data was implement using EddyPro software. The fdrying method performed better with a root mean square observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) of 0.97. The results suggest that modelling ET over the AT vegetation is delicate owing to strong vegetation phenological control of the ET process. The convergent evolution of the vegetation has resulted in high plant available water than the model can detect. It is vital to quantify plant available water in order to improve ET modelling in thicket vegetation.

An inexact risk management model for agricultural land-use planning under water shortage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; Feng, Changchun; Dai, Chao; Li, Yongping; Li, Chunhui; Liu, Ming

2016-09-01

Water resources availability has a significant impact on agricultural land-use planning, especially in a water shortage area such as North China. The random nature of available water resources and other uncertainties in an agricultural system present risk for land-use planning and may lead to undesirable decisions or potential economic loss. In this study, an inexact risk management model (IRM) was developed for supporting agricultural land-use planning and risk analysis under water shortage. The IRM model was formulated through incorporating a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to control uncertainties expressed as not only probability distributions but also as discrete intervals. The measure of risk about the second-stage penalty cost was incorporated into the model so that the trade-off between system benefit and extreme expected loss could be analyzed. The developed model was applied to a case study in the Zhangweinan River Basin, a typical agricultural region facing serious water shortage in North China. Solutions of the IRM model showed that the obtained first-stage land-use target values could be used to reflect decision-makers' opinions on the long-term development plan. The confidence level α and maximum acceptable risk loss β could be used to reflect decisionmakers' preference towards system benefit and risk control. The results indicated that the IRM model was useful for reflecting the decision-makers' attitudes toward risk aversion and could help seek cost-effective agricultural land-use planning strategies under complex uncertainties.

The moving confluence route technology with WAD scheme for 3D hydrodynamic simulation in high altitude inland waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yonggui; Yang, Yinqun; Chen, Xiaolong; Engel, Bernard A.; Zhang, Wanshun

2018-04-01

For three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations in inland waters, the rapid changes with moving boundary and various input conditions should be considered. Some models are developed with moving boundary but the dynamic change of discharges is unresolved or ignored. For better hydrodynamic simulation in inland waters, the widely used 3D model, ECOMSED, has been improved by moving confluence route (MCR) method with a wetting and drying scheme (WAD). The fixed locations of water and pollutants inputs from tributaries, point sources and non-point sources have been changed to dynamic confluence routes as the boundary moving. The improved model was applied in an inland water area, Qingshuihai reservoir, Kunming City, China, for a one-year hydrodynamic simulation. The results were verified by water level, flow velocity and water mass conservation. Detailed water level variation analysis and velocity field comparison at different times showed that the improved model has better performance for simulating the boundary moving phenomenon and moving discharges along with water level changing than the original one. The improved three-dimensional model is available for hydrodynamics simulation in water bodies where water boundary shifts along with change of water level and have various inlets.

Derivation of Optimal Cropping Pattern in Part of Hirakud Command using Cuckoo Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, Ashutosh; Biswal, Sudarsan; Samantaray, Sandeep; Swain, Prakash Chandra, PROF.

2017-08-01

The economicgrowth of a Nation depends on agriculture which relies on the obtainable water resources, available land and crops. The contribution of water in an appropriate quantity at appropriate time plays avitalrole to increase the agricultural production. Optimal utilization of available resources can be achieved by proper planning and management of water resources projects and adoption of appropriate technology. In the present work, the command area of Sambalpur distribrutary System is taken up for investigation. Further, adoption of a fixed cropping pattern causes the reduction of yield. The present study aims at developing different crop planning strategies to increase the net benefit from the command area with minimum investment. Optimization models are developed for Kharif season using LINDO and Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm for maximization of the net benefits. In process of development of Optimization model the factors such as cultivable land, seeds, fertilizers, man power, water cost, etc. are taken as constraints. The irrigation water needs of major crops and the total available water through canals in the command of Sambalpur Distributary are estimated. LINDO and Cuckoo Search models are formulated and used to derive the optimal cropping pattern yielding maximum net benefits. The net benefits of Rs.585.0 lakhs in Kharif Season are obtained by adopting LINGO and 596.07 lakhs from Cuckoo Search, respectively, whereas the net benefits of 447.0 lakhs is received by the farmers of the locality with the adopting present cropping pattern.

Integrating Agent Models of Subsistence Farming With Dynamic Models of Water Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bithell, M.; Brasington, J.

2004-12-01

Subsistence farming communities are dependent on the landscape to provide the resource base upon which their societies can be built. A key component of this is the role of climate, and the feedback between rainfall, crop growth and land clearance, and their coupling to the hydrological cycle. Temporal fluctuations in rainfall on timescales from annual through to decadal and longer, and the associated changes in in the spatial distribution of water availability mediated by the soil-type, slope and landcover determine the locations within the landscape that can support agriculture, and control sustainability of farming practices. We seek to make an integrated modelling system to represent land use change by coupling an agent based model of subsistence farming, and the associated exploitation of natural resources, to a realistic representation of the hydrology at the catchment scale, using TOPMODEL to map the spatial distribution of crop water stress for given time-series of rainfall. In this way we can, for example, investigate how demographic changes and associated removal of forest cover influence the possibilities for field locations within the catchment, through changes in ground water availability. The framework for this modelling exercise will be presented and preliminary results from this system will be discussed.

Simulation of acid water movement in canals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Truong, To; Tat Dac, Nguyen; Ngoc Phienc, Huynh

1996-05-01

An attempt to tackle the problem of the propagation of acid water in canals is described, and a mathematical model to simulate the acid water movement is developed, in which the jurbanite equilibrium is found to prevail. The processes of settling owing to sedimentation, precipitation and redissolution have been considered in the modelling. Data available from Tan Thanh, in the Plain of Reeds of the Mekong Delta in Viet Nam, are used as a case study.

Parameter and input data uncertainty estimation for the assessment of water resources in two sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oosthuizen, Nadia; Hughes, Denis A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; Mwenge Kahinda, Jean-Marc; Mvandaba, Vuyelwa

2018-05-01

The demand for water resources is rapidly growing, placing more strain on access to water and its management. In order to appropriately manage water resources, there is a need to accurately quantify available water resources. Unfortunately, the data required for such assessment are frequently far from sufficient in terms of availability and quality, especially in southern Africa. In this study, the uncertainty related to the estimation of water resources of two sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin - the Mogalakwena in South Africa and the Shashe shared between Botswana and Zimbabwe - is assessed. Input data (and model parameters) are significant sources of uncertainty that should be quantified. In southern Africa water use data are among the most unreliable sources of model input data because available databases generally consist of only licensed information and actual use is generally unknown. The study assesses how these uncertainties impact the estimation of surface water resources of the sub-basins. Data on farm reservoirs and irrigated areas from various sources were collected and used to run the model. Many farm dams and large irrigation areas are located in the upper parts of the Mogalakwena sub-basin. Results indicate that water use uncertainty is small. Nevertheless, the medium to low flows are clearly impacted. The simulated mean monthly flows at the outlet of the Mogalakwena sub-basin were between 22.62 and 24.68 Mm3 per month when incorporating only the uncertainty related to the main physical runoff generating parameters. The range of total predictive uncertainty of the model increased to between 22.15 and 24.99 Mm3 when water use data such as small farm and large reservoirs and irrigation were included. For the Shashe sub-basin incorporating only uncertainty related to the main runoff parameters resulted in mean monthly flows between 11.66 and 14.54 Mm3. The range of predictive uncertainty changed to between 11.66 and 17.72 Mm3 after the uncertainty in water use information was added.

Water and nonpoint source pollution estimation in the watershed with limited data availability based on hydrological simulation and regression model.

PubMed

Huiliang, Wang; Zening, Wu; Caihong, Hu; Xinzhong, Du

2015-09-01

Nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is considered as the main reason for water quality deterioration; thus, to quantify the NPS loads reliably is the key to implement watershed management practices. In this study, water quality and NPS loads from a watershed with limited data availability were studied in a mountainous area in China. Instantaneous water discharge was measured through the velocity-area method, and samples were taken for water quality analysis in both flood and nonflood days in 2010. The streamflow simulated by Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) from 1995 to 2013 and a regression model were used to estimate total annual loads of various water quality parameters. The concentrations of total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) were much higher during the flood seasons, but the concentrations of ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N) and nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) were lower during the flood seasons. Nevertheless, only TP concentration was positively correlated with the flow rate. The fluctuation of annual load from this watershed was significant. Statistical results indicated the significant contribution of pollutant fluxes during flood seasons to annual fluxes. The loads of TP, TN, NH3-N, and NO3-N in the flood seasons were accounted for 58-85, 60-82, 63-88, 64-81% of the total annual loads, respectively. This study presented a new method for estimation of the water and NPS loads in the watershed with limited data availability, which simplified data collection to watershed model and overcame the scale problem of field experiment method.

Application of Method of Variation to Analyze and Predict Human Induced Modifications of Water Resource Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessu, S. B.; Melesse, A. M.; Mahadev, B.; McClain, M.

2010-12-01

Water resource systems have often used gravitational surface and subsurface flows because of their practicality in hydrological modeling and prediction. Activities such as inter/intra-basin water transfer, the use of small pumps and the construction of micro-ponds challenge the tradition of natural rivers as water resource management unit. On the contrary, precipitation is barely affected by topography and plot harvesting in wet regions can be more manageable than diverting from rivers. Therefore, it is indicative to attend to systems where precipitation drives the dynamics while the internal mechanics constitutes spectrum of human activity and decision in a network of plots. The trade-in volume and path of harvested precipitation depends on water balance, energy balance and the kinematics of supply and demand. Method of variation can be used to understand and predict the implication of local excess precipitation harvest and exchange on the natural water system. A system model was developed using the variational form of Euler-Bernoulli’s equation for the Kenyan Mara River basin. Satellite derived digital elevation models, precipitation estimates, and surface properties such as fractional impervious surface area, are used to estimate the available water resource. Four management conditions are imposed in the model: gravitational flow, open water extraction and high water use investment at upstream and downstream respectively. According to the model, the first management maintains the basin status quo while the open source management could induce externality. The high water market at the upstream in the third management offers more than 50% of the basin-wide total revenue to the upper third section of the basin thus may promote more harvesting. The open source and upstream exploitation suggest potential drop of water availability to downstream. The model exposed the latent potential of economic gradient to reconfigure the flow network along the direction where the marginal benefit is maximized. Therefore, the variation model can help to predict the possible human induced modification of natural water system in order to gain the maximum productivity and benefit.

Finding water scarcity amid abundance using human–natural system models

PubMed Central

Amos, Adell; Bigelow, Daniel P.; Chang, Heejun; Conklin, David R.; Haggerty, Roy; Langpap, Christian; Moore, Kathleen; Mote, Philip W.; Nolin, Anne W.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Schwartz, Cynthia L.; Tullos, Desiree; Turner, David P.

2017-01-01

Water scarcity afflicts societies worldwide. Anticipating water shortages is vital because of water’s indispensable role in social-ecological systems. But the challenge is daunting due to heterogeneity, feedbacks, and water’s spatial-temporal sequencing throughout such systems. Regional system models with sufficient detail can help address this challenge. In our study, a detailed coupled human–natural system model of one such region identifies how climate change and socioeconomic growth will alter the availability and use of water in coming decades. Results demonstrate how water scarcity varies greatly across small distances and brief time periods, even in basins where water may be relatively abundant overall. Some of these results were unexpected and may appear counterintuitive to some observers. Key determinants of water scarcity are found to be the cost of transporting and storing water, society’s institutions that circumscribe human choices, and the opportunity cost of water when alternative uses compete. PMID:29078299

Water exchanges versus water works: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model for the Balearic Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, Carlos M.; Tirado, Dolores; Rey-Maquieira, Javier

2004-10-01

We present a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) for the Balearic Islands, specifically performed to analyze the welfare gains associated with an improvement in the allocation of water rights through voluntary water exchanges (mainly between the agriculture and urban sectors). For the implementation of the empirical model we built the social accounting matrix (SAM) from the last available input-output table of the islands (for the year 1997). Water exchanges provide an important alternative to make the allocation of water flexible enough to cope with the cyclical droughts that characterize the natural water regime on the islands. The main conclusion is that the increased efficiency provided by ``water markets'' makes this option more advantageous than the popular alternative of building new desalinization plants. Contrary to common opinion, a ``water market'' can also have positive and significant impacts on the agricultural income.

Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Ajaz Ahmed, Mukhtar Ahmed; Abd-Elrahman, Amr; Escobedo, Francisco J; Cropper, Wendell P; Martin, Timothy A; Timilsina, Nilesh

2017-09-01

Understanding ecosystem processes and the influence of regional scale drivers can provide useful information for managing forest ecosystems. Examining more local scale drivers of forest biomass and water yield can also provide insights for identifying and better understanding the effects of climate change and management on forests. We used diverse multi-scale datasets, functional models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to model ecosystem processes at the watershed scale and to interpret the influence of ecological drivers across the Southeastern United States (SE US). Aboveground forest biomass (AGB) was determined from available geospatial datasets and water yield was estimated using the Water Supply and Stress Index (WaSSI) model at the watershed level. Our geostatistical model examined the spatial variation in these relationships between ecosystem processes, climate, biophysical, and forest management variables at the watershed level across the SE US. Ecological and management drivers at the watershed level were analyzed locally to identify whether drivers contribute positively or negatively to aboveground forest biomass and water yield ecosystem processes and thus identifying potential synergies and tradeoffs across the SE US region. Although AGB and water yield drivers varied geographically across the study area, they were generally significantly influenced by climate (rainfall and temperature), land-cover factor1 (Water and barren), land-cover factor2 (wetland and forest), organic matter content high, rock depth, available water content, stand age, elevation, and LAI drivers. These drivers were positively or negatively associated with biomass or water yield which significantly contributes to ecosystem interactions or tradeoff/synergies. Our study introduced a spatially-explicit modelling framework to analyze the effect of ecosystem drivers on forest ecosystem structure, function and provision of services. This integrated model approach facilitates multi-scale analyses of drivers and interactions at the local to regional scale. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reassessment of Ground-Water Recharge and Simulated Ground-Water Availability for the Hawi Area of North Kohala, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2002-01-01

An estimate of ground-water availability in the Hawi area of north Kohala, Hawaii, is needed to determine whether ground-water resources are adequate to meet future demand within the area and other areas to the south. For the Hawi area, estimated average annual recharge from infiltration of rainfall, fog drip, and irrigation is 37.5 million gallons per day from a daily water budget. Low and high annual recharge estimates for the Hawi area that incorporate estimated uncertainty are 19.9 and 55.4 million gallons per day, respectively. The recharge estimates from this study are lower than the recharge of 68.4 million gallons per day previously estimated from a monthly water budget. Three ground-water models, using the low, intermediate, and high recharge estimates (19.9, 37.5, and 55.4 million gallons per day, respectively), were developed for the Hawi area to simulate ground-water levels and discharges for the 1990?s. To assess potential ground-water availability, the numerical ground-water flow models were used to simulate the response of the freshwater-lens system to withdrawals at rates in excess of the average 1990?s withdrawal rates. Because of uncertainty in the recharge estimate, estimates of ground-water availability also are uncertain. Results from numerical simulations indicate that for appropriate well sites, depths, and withdrawal rates (1) for the low recharge estimate (19.9 million gallons per day) it may be possible to develop an additional 10 million gallons per day of fresh ground water from the Hawi area and maintain a freshwater-lens thickness of 160 feet near the withdrawal sites, (2) for the intermediate recharge estimate (37.5 million gallons per day) it may be possible to develop an additional 15 million gallons per day of fresh ground water from the Hawi area and maintain a freshwater-lens thickness of 190 feet near the withdrawal sites, and (3) for the high recharge estimate (55.4 million gallons per day) it may be possible to develop at least an additional 20 million gallons per day of fresh ground water from the Hawi area and maintain a freshwater-lens thickness of 200 feet near the withdrawal sites. Other well-field configurations than the ones considered potentially could be used to develop more fresh ground water than indicated by the scenarios tested in this study. Depth, spacing, and withdrawal rates of individual wells are important considerations in determining ground-water availability. The regional models developed for this study cannot predict whether local saltwater intrusion problems may occur at individual withdrawal sites. Results of this study underscore the importance of collecting new information to better constrain the recharge estimates.

A data fusion approach for mapping daily evapotranspiration at field scale

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The capability for mapping water consumption over cropped landscapes on a daily and seasonal basis is increasingly relevant given forecasted scenarios of reduced water availability. Prognostic modeling of water losses to the atmosphere, or evapotranspiration (ET), at field or finer scales in agricul...

Global sensitivity analysis for UNSATCHEM simulations of crop production with degraded waters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One strategy for maintaining irrigated agricultural productivity in the face of diminishing resource availability is to make greater use of marginal quality waters and lands. A key to sustaining systems using degraded irrigation waters is salinity management. Advanced simulation models and decision ...

Monitoring of soil moisture using operational microwave satellites

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate and timely knowledge of the water availability in the soil column is essential for water recourse management and agricultural decision making. Soil water information is a crucial model input as well as it is an important source of information for the proper understanding and interpretation ...

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

2013-12-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and also supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, the large natural groundwater storage provides a buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a transient global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013) combined with information about e.g. aquifer thickness and presence of less permeable, impermeable, and semi-impermeable layers. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with observations, from North America and Australia, resulting in a coefficient of determination of 0.8 and 0.7 respectively. This shows that it is feasible to build a global groundwater model using best available global information, and estimated water table depths are within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

A high resolution global scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, Inge; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2014-05-01

As the world's largest accessible source of freshwater, groundwater plays a vital role in satisfying the basic needs of human society. It serves as a primary source of drinking water and supplies water for agricultural and industrial activities. During times of drought, groundwater storage provides a large natural buffer against water shortage and sustains flows to rivers and wetlands, supporting ecosystem habitats and biodiversity. Yet, the current generation of global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, although it is a crucial part of the hydrological cycle. Thus, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system that allows for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows is essential for GHMs that increasingly run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global groundwater model with a resolution of 5 arc-minutes (approximately 10 km at the equator) using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988). With this global groundwater model we eventually intend to simulate the changes in the groundwater system over time that result from variations in recharge and abstraction. Aquifer schematization and properties of this groundwater model were developed from available global lithological maps and datasets (Dürr et al., 2005; Gleeson et al., 2010; Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2013), combined with our estimate of aquifer thickness for sedimentary basins. We forced the groundwater model with the output from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011), specifically the net groundwater recharge and average surface water levels derived from routed channel discharge. For the parameterization, we relied entirely on available global datasets and did not calibrate the model so that it can equally be expanded to data poor environments. Based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run the model with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observed that most variance in groundwater depth is explained by variation in saturated conductivity, and, for the sediment basins, also by variation in recharge. We validated simulated groundwater heads with piezometer heads (available from www.glowasis.eu), resulting in a coefficient of determination for sedimentary basins of 0.92 with regression constant of 0.8. This shows the used method is suitable to build a global groundwater model using best available global information, and estimated water table depths are within acceptable accuracy in many parts of the world.

Water management can reinforce plant competition in salt-affected semi-arid wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coletti, Janaine Z.; Vogwill, Ryan; Hipsey, Matthew R.

2017-09-01

The diversity of vegetation in semi-arid, ephemeral wetlands is determined by niche availability and species competition, both of which are influenced by changes in water availability and salinity. Here, we hypothesise that ignoring physiological differences and competition between species when managing wetland hydrologic regimes can lead to a decrease in vegetation diversity, even when the overall wetland carrying capacity is improved. Using an ecohydrological model capable of resolving water-vegetation-salt feedbacks, we investigate why water surface and groundwater management interventions to combat vegetation decline have been more beneficial to Casuarina obesa than to Melaleuca strobophylla, the co-dominant tree species in Lake Toolibin, a salt-affected wetland in Western Australia. The simulations reveal that in trying to reduce the negative effect of salinity, the management interventions have created an environment favouring C. obesa by intensifying the climate-induced trend that the wetland has been experiencing of lower water availability and higher root-zone salinity. By testing alternative scenarios, we show that interventions that improve M. strobophylla biomass are possible by promoting hydrologic conditions that are less specific to the niche requirements of C. obesa. Modelling uncertainties were explored via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Overall, the study demonstrates the importance of including species differentiation and competition in ecohydrological models that form the basis for wetland management.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Optimizing available water capacity using microwave satellite data for improving irrigation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Manika; Bolten, John; Lakshmi, Venkat

2015-04-01

This work addresses the improvement of available water capacity by developing a technique for estimating soil hydraulic parameters through the utilization of satellite-retrieved near surface soil moisture. The prototype involves the usage of Monte Carlo analysis to assimilate historical remote sensing soil moisture data available from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) within the hydrological model. The main hypothesis used in this study is that near-surface soil moisture data contain useful information that can describe the effective hydrological conditions of the basin such that when appropriately In the method followed in this study the hydraulic parameters are derived directly from information on the soil moisture state at the AMSR-E footprint scale and the available water capacity is derived for the root zone by coupling of AMSR-E soil moisture with the physically-based hydrological model. The available capacity water, which refers to difference between the field capacity and wilting point of the soil and represent the soil moisture content at 0.33 bar and 15 bar respectively is estimated from the soil hydraulic parameters using the van Genuchten equation. The initial ranges of soil hydraulic parameters are taken in correspondence with the values available from the literature based on Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database within the particular AMSR-E footprint. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, the ranges are narrowed in the region where simulation shows a good match between predicted and near-surface soil moisture from AMSR-E. In this study, the uncertainties in accurately determining the parameters of the nonlinear soil water retention function for large-scale hydrological modeling is the focus of the development of the Bayesian framework. Thus, the model forecasting has been combined with the observational information to optimize the model state and the soil hydraulic parameters simultaneously. The optimization process is divided into two steps during one time interval: the state variable is optimized through the state filter and the optimal parameter values are then transferred for retrieving soil moisture. However, soil moisture from sensors such as AMSR-E can only be retrieved for the top few centimeters of soil. So, for the present study, a homogeneous soil system has been considered. By assimilating this information into the model, the accuracy of model structure in relating surface moisture dynamics to deeper soil profiles can be ascertained. To evaluate the performance of the system in helping improve simulation accuracy and whether they can be used to obtain soil moisture profiles at poorly gauged catchments alongwith the available water capacity, the root mean square error (RMSE) and Mean Bias error (MBE) are used to measure the performance of the soil moisture simulations. The optimized parameters as compared to the pedo-transfer based parameters were found to reduce the RMSE from 0.14 to 0.04 and 0.15 to 0.07 in surface layer and root zone respectively.

The Eco-Hydrological Role of Physical Surface Sealing in Dry Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sela, Shai; Svoray, Tal; Assouline, Shmuel

2016-04-01

Soil surface sealing is a widespread natural process in dry environments occurring frequently in bare soil areas between vegetation patches. The low hydraulic conductivity that characterizes the seal layer reduces both infiltration and evaporation fluxes from the soil, and thus has the potential to affect local vegetation water availability and consequently transpiration rates. This effect is investigated here using two separate physically based models - a runoff model, and a root water uptake model. High resolution rainfall data is used to demonstrate the seal layer effect on runoff generation and vegetation water availability, while the seal layer effect on vegetation water uptake is studied using a long-term climatic dataset (44 years) from three dry sites presenting a climatic gradient in the Negev Desert, Israel. The Feddes water uptake parameters for the dominant shrub at the study site (Sarcopoterium spinosum) were acquired using an inverse calibration procedure using data from a lysimeter experiment. The results indicate that the presence of surface sealing increases significantly vegetation water availability through runoff generation. Following water infiltration, the shrub transpiration generally increases if the shrub is surrounded by a seal layer, but this effect can switch from positive to negative depending on initial soil water content, rainfall intensity, and the duration of the subsequent drying intervals. These factors have a marked effect on inter-annual variability of the seal layer effect on the shrub transpiration, which on average was found to be 26% higher under sealed conditions than in the case of unsealed soil surfaces. These results shed light on the importance of surface sealing on the eco-hydrology of dry environments and its contribution to the resilience of woody vegetation.

Application of an interactive water simulation model in urban water management: a case study in Amsterdam.

PubMed

Leskens, J G; Brugnach, M; Hoekstra, A Y

2014-01-01

Water simulation models are available to support decision-makers in urban water management. To use current water simulation models, special expertise is required. Therefore, model information is prepared prior to work sessions, in which decision-makers weigh different solutions. However, this model information quickly becomes outdated when new suggestions for solutions arise and are therefore limited in use. We suggest that new model techniques, i.e. fast and flexible computation algorithms and realistic visualizations, allow this problem to be solved by using simulation models during work sessions. A new Interactive Water Simulation Model was applied for two case study areas in Amsterdam and was used in two workshops. In these workshops, the Interactive Water Simulation Model was positively received. It included non-specialist participants in the process of suggesting and selecting possible solutions and made them part of the accompanying discussions and negotiations. It also provided the opportunity to evaluate and enhance possible solutions more often within the time horizon of a decision-making process. Several preconditions proved to be important for successfully applying the Interactive Water Simulation Model, such as the willingness of the stakeholders to participate and the preparation of different general main solutions that can be used for further iterations during a work session.

New steady-state models for water-limited cropping systems using saline irrigation waters: Analytical solutions and applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to the diminishing availability of good quality water for irrigation, it is increasingly important that irrigation and salinity management tools be able to target submaximal crop yields and support the use of marginal quality waters. In this work, we present a steady-state irrigated systems mod...

New steady-state models for water-limited cropping systems using saline irrigation waters: Analytical solutions and applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Due to the diminishing availability of good quality water for irrigation, it is increasingly important that irrigation and salinity management tools be able to target submaximal crop yields and support the use of marginal quality waters. In this work, we present a steady-state irrigated systems mode...

Optimizing operational water management with soil moisture data from Sentinel-1 satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pezij, Michiel; Augustijn, Denie; Hendriks, Dimmie; Hulscher, Suzanne

2016-04-01

In the Netherlands, regional water authorities are responsible for management and maintenance of regional water bodies. Due to socio-economic developments (e.g. agricultural intensification and on-going urbanisation) and an increase in climate variability, the pressure on these water bodies is growing. Optimization of water availability by taking into account the needs of different users, both in wet and dry periods, is crucial for sustainable developments. To support timely and well-directed operational water management, accurate information on the current state of the system as well as reliable models to evaluate water management optimization measures are essential. Previous studies showed that the use of remote sensing data (for example soil moisture data) in water management offers many opportunities (e.g. Wanders et al. (2014)). However, these data are not yet used in operational applications at a large scale. The Sentinel-1 satellites programme offers high spatiotemporal resolution soil moisture data (1 image per 6 days with a spatial resolution of 10 by 10 m) that are freely available. In this study, these data will be used to improve the Netherlands Hydrological Instrument (NHI). The NHI consists of coupled models for the unsaturated zone (MetaSWAP), groundwater (iMODFLOW) and surface water (Mozart and DM). The NHI is used for scenario analyses and operational water management in the Netherlands (De Lange et al., 2014). Due to the lack of soil moisture data, the unsaturated zone model is not yet thoroughly validated and its output is not used by regional water authorities for decision-making. Therefore, the newly acquired remotely sensed soil moisture data will be used to improve the skill of the MetaSWAP-model and the NHI as whole. The research will focus among other things on the calibration of soil parameters by comparing model output (MetaSWAP) with the remotely sensed soil moisture data. Eventually, we want to apply data-assimilation to improve operational water management in cooperation with users. As a first step, the current simulation of soil moisture processes within the NHI will be reviewed. We want to present the findings of this assessment as well as the research methodology. This PhD-research is part of the Optimizing Water Availability with Sentinel-1 Satellites (OWAS1S)-project in which two other PhD-students are participating. They are focussing on the translation of raw Sentinel-1 satellite data to surface soil moisture data and the application of the remotely sensed soil moisture data on crop water availability and trafficability on field scale. References: De Lange, W. J., Prinsen, G. F., Hoogewoud, J. C., Veldhuizen, A. A., Verkaik, J., Oude Essink, G. H. P., van Walsum, P. E. V., Delsman, J. R., Hunink, J. C., Massop, H. T. L., & Kroon, T. (2014). An operational, multi-scale, multi-model system for consensus-based, integrated water management and policy analysis: The Netherlands Hydrological Instrument. Environmental Modelling & Software, 59, 98-108. doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.009 Wanders, N., Karssenberg, D., de Roo, A., de Jong, S. M., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2014). The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(6), 2343-2357. doi: 10.5194/hess-18-2343-2014

Simulating soil-water movement through loess-veneered landscapes using nonconsilient saturated hydraulic conductivity measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Lee, Brad D.; Schoeneberger, Philip J.; McCauley, W. M.; Indorante, Samuel J.; Owens, Phillip R.

2014-01-01

Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) data are available for the entire United States, so are incorporated in many regional and national models of hydrology and environmental management. However, SSURGO does not provide an understanding of spatial variability and only includes saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) values estimated from particle size analysis (PSA). This study showed model sensitivity to the substitution of SSURGO data with locally described soil properties or alternate methods of measuring Ksat. Incorporation of these different soil data sets significantly changed the results of hydrologic modeling as a consequence of the amount of space available to store soil water and how this soil water is moved downslope. Locally described soil profiles indicated a difference in Ksat when measured in the field vs. being estimated from PSA. This, in turn, caused a difference in which soil layers were incorporated in the hydrologic simulations using TOPMODEL, ultimately affecting how soil water storage was simulated. Simulations of free-flowing soil water, the amount of water traveling through pores too large to retain water against gravity, were compared with field observations of water in wells at five slope positions along a catena. Comparison of the simulated data with the observed data showed that the ability to model the range of conditions observed in the field varied as a function of three soil data sets (SSURGO and local field descriptions using PSA-derived Ksat or field-measured Ksat) and that comparison of absolute values of soil water storage are not valid if different characterizations of soil properties are used.

Socio-hydrological resilience of an arid aquifer system, subject to changing climate and inadequate agricultural management: A case study from the Valley of Santo Domingo, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wurl, Jobst; Gámez, Alba E.; Ivanova, Antonina; Imaz Lamadrid, Miguel A.; Hernández-Morales, Pablo

2018-04-01

Mismanagement has caused the overexploitation of one third of the major aquifers in Mexico, mainly due to excessive water extraction for agricultural irrigation. Santo Domingo (Baja California Sur, in northern Mexico, where agriculture absorbs nearly 80% of water) is the only aquifer in the Mexico where, after a period of overexploitation, equality between extraction and recharge rates was achieved, although this has not meant the securement of long-term water availability. This paper offers an analysis of hydrological resilience of a water-limited arid ecosystem under future extraction scenarios and changing climate conditions. A regional groundwater flow model is proposed using MODFLOW software. Then, different indicators were modeled as outcomes of coupled human-water systems to predict water trajectories under different human impacts. The aim was to recognize water insecurity scenarios and define appropriate actions to a more sustainable use of this scarce resource in the region. Thus, although runoff derived from extreme floods may favor infiltration, the involvement of local stakeholders and decision makers to reverse the adverse impacts of current water management and climate change is imperative if water availability and better quality are to be secured.

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Green, Pamela; Balk, Deborah; Fekete, Balazs M.; Revenga, Carmen; Todd, Megan; Montgomery, Mark

2011-01-01

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations. PMID:21444797

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin in support of Great Lakes Basin water availability and use studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feinstein, D.T.; Hunt, R.J.; Reeves, H.W.

2010-01-01

A regional groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin and surrounding areas has been developed in support of the Great Lakes Basin Pilot project under the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Availability and Use Program. The transient 2-million-cell model incorporates multiple aquifers and pumping centers that create water-level drawdown that extends into deep saline waters. The 20-layer model simulates the exchange between a dense surface-water network and heterogeneous glacial deposits overlying stratified bedrock of the Wisconsin/Kankakee Arches and Michigan Basin in the Lower and Upper Peninsulas of Michigan; eastern Wisconsin; northern Indiana; and northeastern Illinois. The model is used to quantify changes in the groundwater system in response to pumping and variations in recharge from 1864 to 2005. Model results quantify the sources of water to major pumping centers, illustrate the dynamics of the groundwater system, and yield measures of water availability useful for water-resources management in the region. This report is a complete description of the methods and datasets used to develop the regional model, the underlying conceptual model, and model inputs, including specified values of material properties and the assignment of external and internal boundary conditions. The report also documents the application of the SEAWAT-2000 program for variable-density flow; it details the approach, advanced methods, and results associated with calibration through nonlinear regression using the PEST program; presents the water-level, drawdown, and groundwater flows for various geographic subregions and aquifer systems; and provides analyses of the effects of pumping from shallow and deep wells on sources of water to wells, the migration of groundwater divides, and direct and indirect groundwater discharge to Lake Michigan. The report considers the role of unconfined conditions at the regional scale as well as the influence of salinity on groundwater flow. Lastly, it describes several categories of limitations and discusses ways of extending the regional model to address issues at the local scale. Results of the simulations portray a regional groundwater-flow system that, over time, has largely maintained its natural predevelopment configuration but that locally has been strongly affected by well withdrawals. The quantity of rainfall in the Lake Michigan Basin and adjacent areas supports a dense surface-water network and recharge rates consistent with generally shallow water tables and predominantly shallow groundwater flow. At the regional scale, pumping has not caused major modifications of the shallow flow system, but it has resulted in decreases in base flow to streams and in direct discharge to Lake Michigan (about 2 percent of the groundwater discharged and about 0.5 cubic foot per second per mile of shoreline). On the other hand, well withdrawals have caused major reversals in regional flow patterns around pumping centers in deep, confined aquifers - most noticeably in the Cambrian-Ordovician aquifer system on the west side of Lake Michigan near the cities of Green Bay and Milwaukee in eastern Wisconsin, and around Chicago in northeastern Illinois, as well as in some shallow bedrock aquifers (for example, in the Marshall aquifer near Lansing, Mich.). The reversals in flow have been accompanied by large drawdowns with consequent local decrease in storage. On the west side of Lake Michigan, groundwater withdrawals have caused appreciable migration of the deep groundwater divides. Before the advent of pumping, the deep Lake Michigan groundwater-basin boundaries extended west of the Lake Michigan surface-water basin boundary, in some places by tens of miles. Over time, the pumping centers have replaced Lake Michigan as the regional sink for the deep flow system. The regional model is intended to support the framework pilot study of water availability and use for the Great Lakes Basin (Reeves, in press).

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraes, M. G. A.; Souza da Silva, G.; Siegmund-Schultze, M.

2016-12-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm.A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform will include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions that are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In addition, they can use the SDSS to include constraints into the model in order to account for further objectives, such as preference given to specific uses or timing of uses. This information, and corresponding policies, can foster enhanced economic welfare and sustainable water use, as well as help to solve water use conflicts.

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

2017-04-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In addition, they can use the SDSS to include constraints into the model in order to account for further objectives, such as preference given to specific uses or timing of uses. This information, and corresponding policies, can foster enhanced economic welfare and sustainable water use, as well as help to solve water use conflicts.

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Belitz, Kenneth

2008-01-01

landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

A toolkit for determining historical eco-hydrological interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. B.; Sargeant, C. I.; Evans, C. M.; Vallet-Coulomb, C.

2016-12-01

Contemporary climate change is predicted to result in perturbations to hydroclimatic regimes across the globe, with some regions forecast to become warmer and drier. Given that water is a primary determinant of vegetative health and productivity, we can expect shifts in the availability of this critical resource to have significant impacts on forested ecosystems. The subject is particularly complex in environments where multiple sources of water are potentially available to vegetation and which may also exhibit spatial and temporal variability. To anticipate how subsurface hydrological partitioning may evolve in the future and impact overlying vegetation, we require well constrained, historical data and a modelling framework for assessing the dynamics of subsurface hydrology. We outline a toolkit to retrospectively investigate dynamic water use by trees. We describe a synergistic approach, which combines isotope dendrochronology of tree ring cellulose with a biomechanical model, detailed climatic and isotopic data in endmember waters to assess the mean isotopic composition of source water used in annual tree rings. We identify the data requirements and suggest three versions of the toolkit based on data availability. We present sensitivity analyses in order to identify the key variables required to constrain model predictions and then develop empirical relationships for constraining these parameters based on climate records. We demonstrate our methodology within a Mediterranean riparian forest site and show how it can be used along with subsurface hydrological modelling to validate source water determinations, which are fundamental to understanding climatic fluctuations and trends in subsurface hydrology. We suggest that the utility of our toolkit is applicable in riparian zones and in a range of forest environments where distinct isotopic endmembers are present.

Evaluation of alternative model-data fusion approaches in water balance estimation across Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.

2009-04-01

Australia's national agencies are developing a continental modelling system to provide a range of water information services. It will include rolling water balance estimation to underpin national water accounts, water resources assessments that interpret current water resources availability and trends in a historical context, and water resources predictions coupled to climate and weather forecasting. The nation-wide coverage, currency, accuracy, and consistency required means that remote sensing will need to play an important role along with in-situ observations. Different approaches to blending models and observations can be considered. Integration of on-ground and remote sensing data into land surface models in atmospheric applications often involves state updating through model-data assimilation techniques. By comparison, retrospective water balance estimation and hydrological scenario modelling to date has mostly relied on static parameter fitting against observations and has made little use of earth observation. The model-data fusion approach most appropriate for a continental water balance estimation system will need to consider the trade-off between computational overhead and the accuracy gains achieved when using more sophisticated synthesis techniques and additional observations. This trade-off was investigated using a landscape hydrological model and satellite-based estimates of soil moisture and vegetation properties for aseveral gauged test catchments in southeast Australia.

Erosion and Sediment Transport Modelling in Shallow Waters: A Review on Approaches, Models and Applications.

PubMed

Hajigholizadeh, Mohammad; Melesse, Assefa M; Fuentes, Hector R

2018-03-14

The erosion and sediment transport processes in shallow waters, which are discussed in this paper, begin when water droplets hit the soil surface. The transport mechanism caused by the consequent rainfall-runoff process determines the amount of generated sediment that can be transferred downslope. Many significant studies and models are performed to investigate these processes, which differ in terms of their effecting factors, approaches, inputs and outputs, model structure and the manner that these processes represent. This paper attempts to review the related literature concerning sediment transport modelling in shallow waters. A classification based on the representational processes of the soil erosion and sediment transport models (empirical, conceptual, physical and hybrid) is adopted, and the commonly-used models and their characteristics are listed. This review is expected to be of interest to researchers and soil and water conservation managers who are working on erosion and sediment transport phenomena in shallow waters. The paper format should be helpful for practitioners to identify and generally characterize the types of available models, their strengths and their basic scope of applicability.

Erosion and Sediment Transport Modelling in Shallow Waters: A Review on Approaches, Models and Applications

PubMed Central

Fuentes, Hector R.

2018-01-01

The erosion and sediment transport processes in shallow waters, which are discussed in this paper, begin when water droplets hit the soil surface. The transport mechanism caused by the consequent rainfall-runoff process determines the amount of generated sediment that can be transferred downslope. Many significant studies and models are performed to investigate these processes, which differ in terms of their effecting factors, approaches, inputs and outputs, model structure and the manner that these processes represent. This paper attempts to review the related literature concerning sediment transport modelling in shallow waters. A classification based on the representational processes of the soil erosion and sediment transport models (empirical, conceptual, physical and hybrid) is adopted, and the commonly-used models and their characteristics are listed. This review is expected to be of interest to researchers and soil and water conservation managers who are working on erosion and sediment transport phenomena in shallow waters. The paper format should be helpful for practitioners to identify and generally characterize the types of available models, their strengths and their basic scope of applicability. PMID:29538335

Static dielectric constant of water within a bilayer using recent water models: a molecular dynamics study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meneses-Juárez, Efrain; Rivas-Silva, Juan Francisco; González-Melchor, Minerva

2018-05-01

The water confined within a surfactant bilayer is studied using different water models via molecular dynamics simulations. We considered four representative rigid models of water: the SPC/E and the TIP4P/2005, which are commonly used in numerical calculations and the more recent TIP4Q and SPC/ε models, developed to reproduce the dielectric behaviour of pure water. The static dielectric constant of the confined water was analyzed as a function of the temperature for the four models. In all cases it decreases as the temperature increases. Additionally, the static dielectric constant of the bilayer-water system was estimated through its expression in terms of the fluctuations in the total dipole moment, usually applied for isotropic systems. The estimated dielectric was compared with the available experimental data. We found that the TIP4Q and the SPC/ε produce closer values to the experimental data than the other models, particularly at room temperature. It was found that the probability of finding the sodium ion close to the head of the surfactant decreases as the temperature increases, thus the head of the surfactant is more exposed to the interaction with water when the temperature is higher.

A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Newmark, Robin; Heath, Garvin

2011-03-01

This report provides estimates of operational water withdrawal and water consumption factors for electricity generating technologies in the United States. Estimates of water factors were collected from published primary literature and were not modified except for unit conversions. The presented water factors may be useful in modeling and policy analyses where reliable power plant level data are not available.

VIC-CropSyst-v2: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Keyvan; Stöckle, Claudio; Chinnayakanahalli, Kiran; Nelson, Roger; Liu, Mingliang; Rajagopalan, Kirti; Barik, Muhammad; Adam, Jennifer C.

2017-08-01

Food supply is affected by a complex nexus of land, atmosphere, and human processes, including short- and long-term stressors (e.g., drought and climate change, respectively). A simulation platform that captures these complex elements can be used to inform policy and best management practices to promote sustainable agriculture. We have developed a tightly coupled framework using the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and the CropSyst agricultural model. A mechanistic irrigation module was also developed for inclusion in this framework. Because VIC-CropSyst combines two widely used and mechanistic models (for crop phenology, growth, management, and macroscale hydrology), it can provide realistic and hydrologically consistent simulations of water availability, crop water requirements for irrigation, and agricultural productivity for both irrigated and dryland systems. This allows VIC-CropSyst to provide managers and decision makers with reliable information on regional water stresses and their impacts on food production. Additionally, VIC-CropSyst is being used in conjunction with socioeconomic models, river system models, and atmospheric models to simulate feedback processes between regional water availability, agricultural water management decisions, and land-atmosphere interactions. The performance of VIC-CropSyst was evaluated on both regional (over the US Pacific Northwest) and point scales. Point-scale evaluation involved using two flux tower sites located in agricultural fields in the US (Nebraska and Illinois). The agreement between recorded and simulated evapotranspiration (ET), applied irrigation water, soil moisture, leaf area index (LAI), and yield indicated that, although the model is intended to work on regional scales, it also captures field-scale processes in agricultural areas.

Assessment of Agricultural Water Management in Punjab, India using Bayesian Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Sidhu, R.

2013-12-01

The success of the Green Revolution in Punjab, India is threatened by the declining water table (approx. 1 m/yr). Punjab, a major agricultural supplier for the rest of India, supports irrigation with a canal system and groundwater, which is vastly over-exploited. Groundwater development in many districts is greater than 200% the annual recharge rate. The hydrologic data required to complete a mass-balance model are not available for this region, therefore we use Bayesian methods to estimate hydrologic properties and irrigation requirements. Using the known values of precipitation, total canal water delivery, crop yield, and water table elevation, we solve for each unknown parameter (often a coefficient) using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Results provide regional estimates of irrigation requirements and groundwater recharge rates under observed climate conditions (1972 to 2002). Model results are used to estimate future water availability and demand to help inform agriculture management decisions under projected climate conditions. We find that changing cropping patterns for the region can maintain food production while balancing groundwater pumping with natural recharge. This computational method can be applied in data-scarce regions across the world, where agricultural water management is required to resolve competition between food security and changing resource availability.

Evaluating water management strategies with the Systems Impact Assessment Model: SIAM version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, John M.; Heasley, John; Hanna, Blair; Sandelin, Jeff; Flug, Marshall; Campbell, Sharon; Henriksen, Jim; Douglas, Aaron

2005-01-01

The apparent disparity between restoration benefits and costs for the Klamath River may suggest to some that water resources on the Klamath be reallocated to environmentally friendly nonmarket uses. The economic analysis rests in part on the information made available to the survey designers by the biological, hydrologic, and water quality data incorporated in The System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). It is our hope that SIAM can be used to improve the river's water quality and fishery, and strengthen the important regional economy.

Primary and Secondary Contamination Mechanisms in ASR Modeling and Design of Practical Management

EPA Science Inventory

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is a useful water resource management option for water storage and reuse. Its increased use is recognized in adaptation to the ever increasing problem of water availability, both in timing and flow. Challenges in the ASR process may arise from...

Demonstration of the Tilting of the Gas-Water Interface under Hydrodynamic Conditions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gretener, P. E.

1979-01-01

Describes the construction of an apparatus to demonstrate the tilting of an oil-water, gas-water, or gas-oil interface when the subsurface reservoir is under hydrodynamic conditions (i.e., when conditions of lateral flow exist). The model can be constructed of readily-available materials. (RE)

Primary and Secondary Contamination Mechanisms for Consideration in ASR Modeling and Practical Management

EPA Science Inventory

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is a useful water resource management option for water storage and reuse. Its increased use is recognized in adaptation to the ever increasing problem of water availability, both in timing and flow. Challenges in the ASR process may arise from...

Estimating plant available water for general crop simulations in ALMANAC/APEX/EPIC/SWAT

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Process-based simulation models ALMANAC/APEX/EPIC/SWAT contain generalized plant growth subroutines to predict biomass and crop yield. Environmental constraints typically restrict plant growth and yield. Water stress is often an important limiting factor; it is calculated as the sum of water use f...

Sustainability of High Intensity Forest Management with Respect to Water QuaIity and Site Nutrient Reserves

Treesearch

Virginia R. Tolbert; Carl C. Trettin; Dale W. Johnson; John W. Parsons; Allan E. Houston; David A. Mays

2001-01-01

Ensuring sustainability of intensively managed woody crops requires determining soil and water quality effects using a combination of field data and modeling projections. Plot- and catchrnent-scale research, models, and meta-analyses are addressing nutrient availability, site quality, and measures to increase short-rotation woody crop (SRWC) productivity and site...

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model

Treesearch

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2013-01-01

At the hillslope profile and/or field scale, a simple Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is available to easily specify the slope, soil, and management inputs for application of the USDA Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model. Likewise, basic small watershed configurations of a few hillslopes and channels can be created and simulated with this GUI. However,...

Potential climate change impacts on water availability and cooling water demand in the Lusatian Lignite Mining Region, Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Koch, Hagen; Gädeke, Anne; Grünewald, Uwe; Kaltofen, Michael; Redetzky, Michael

2014-05-01

In the catchments of the rivers Schwarze Elster, Spree and Lusatian Neisse, hydrologic and socioeconomic systems are coupled via a complex water management system in which water users, reservoirs and water transfers are included. Lignite mining and electricity production are major water users in the region: To allow for open pit lignite mining, ground water is depleted and released into the river system while cooling water is used in the thermal power plants. In order to assess potential climate change impacts on water availability in the catchments as well as on the water demand of the thermal power plants, a climate change impact assessment was performed using the hydrological model SWIM and the long term water management model WBalMo. The potential impacts of climate change were considered by using three regional climate change scenarios of the statistical regional climate model STAR assuming a further temperature increase of 0, 2 or 3 K by the year 2050 in the region respectively. Furthermore, scenarios assuming decreasing mining activities in terms of a decreasing groundwater depression cone, lower mining water discharges, and reduced cooling water demand of the thermal power plants are considered. In the standard version of the WBalMo model cooling water demand is considered as static with regard to climate variables. However, changes in the future cooling water demand over time according to the plans of the local mining and power plant operator are considered. In order to account for climate change impacts on the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants, a dynamical approach for calculating water demand was implemented in WBalMo. As this approach is based on air temperature and air humidity, the projected air temperature and air humidity of the climate scenarios at the locations of the power plants are included in the calculation. Due to increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation declining natural and managed discharges, and hence a lower water availability in the region, were simulated by SWIM and WBalMo respectively. Next to changing climate conditions, also the different mining scenarios have considerable impacts on natural and managed discharges. Using the dynamic approach for cooling water demand, the simulated water demands are lower in winter, but higher in summer compared to the static approach. As a consequence of changes in the seasonal pattern of the cooling water demand of the power plants, lower summer discharges downstream of the thermal power plants are simulated using the dynamical approach. Due to the complex water management system in the region included in the water management model WBalMo, also the simulation of reservoir releases and volumes is impacted by the choice of either the static or the dynamic approach for calculating the cooling water demand of the thermal power plants.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources of the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, Sonoma County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, Linda R.; Nishikawa, Tracy

2014-01-01

Water managers in the Santa Rosa Plain face the challenge of meeting increasing water demand with a combination of Russian River water, which has uncertainties in its future availability; local groundwater resources; and ongoing and expanding recycled water and water from other conservation programs. To address this challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency, the cities of Cotati, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Sebastopol, the town of Windsor, the California American Water Company, and the County of Sonoma, undertook development of a fully coupled groundwater and surface-water model to better understand and to help manage the hydrologic resources in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed. The purpose of this report is to (1) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, referred to as the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model; (2) present results from simulation of the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model, including water budgets, recharge distributions, streamflow, and the effect of pumping on water-budget components; and (3) present the results from using the model to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of climate change and variability without pumpage for water years 2011-99 and with projected pumpage for water years 2011-40.

Developing Water Resource Security in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained Context - A Case Study in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; Aghakouchak, A.; Samuelsen, S.

2015-12-01

The onset of drought conditions in regions such as California due to shortfalls in precipitation has brought refreshed attention to the vulnerability of our water supply paradigm to changes in climate patterns. In the face of a changing climate which can exacerbate drought conditions in already dry areas, building resiliency into our water supply infrastructure requires some decoupling of water supply availability from climate behavior through conservation, efficiency, and alternative water supply measures such as desalination and water reuse. The installation of these measures requires varying degrees of direct energy inputs and/or impacts the energy usage of the water supply infrastructure (conveyance, treatment, distribution, wastewater treatment). These impacts have implications for greenhouse gas emissions from direct fuel usage or impacts on the emissions from the electric grid. At the scale that these measures may need to be deployed to secure water supply availability, especially under climate change impacted hydrology, they can potentially pose obstacles for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable utilization goals. Therefore, the portfolio of these measures must be such that detrimental impacts on greenhouse gas emissions are minimized. This study combines climate data with a water reservoir network model and an electric grid dispatch model for the water-energy system of California to evaluate 1) the different pathways and scale of alternative water resource measures needed to secure water supply availability and 2) the impacts of following these pathways on the ability to meet greenhouse gas and renewable utilization goals. It was discovered that depending on the water supply measure portfolio implemented, impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and renewable utilization can either be beneficial or detrimental, and optimizing the portfolio is more important under climate change conditions due to the scale of measures required.

Environmental and socio-economic methodologies and solutions towards integrated water resources management.

PubMed

Friesen, Jan; Rodriguez Sinobas, Leonor; Foglia, Laura; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-03-01

Semi-arid regions are facing the challenge of managing water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity and drought. These are recently pressured by the impact of climate change favoring the shifting from using surface water to groundwater without taking sustainability issues into account. Likewise, water scarcity raises the competition for water among users, increasing the risk of social conflicts, as the availability of fresh water in sufficient quality and quantity is already one of the major factors limiting socio-economic development. In terms of hydrology, semi-arid regions are characterized by very complex hydro- and hydrogeological systems. The complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the poor data availability, (1) which limits the number of analysis techniques and methods available to researchers, (2) limits the accuracy of models and predictions, and (3) consequently challenges the capabilities to develop appropriate management measures to mitigate or adapt the environment to scarcity and drought conditions. Integrated water resources management is a holistic approach to focus on both environmental as well as on socio-economic factors influencing water availability and supply. The management approaches and solutions adopted, e.g. in form of decision support for specific water resources systems, are often highly specific for individual case studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

2014-12-01

Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our results indicate that climate change will have a serious effect on diarrhea incidence in the region. However, adaptation strategies including more reliable water supplies and household water treatment can mitigate these impacts.

Future Visions of the Brahmaputra - Establishing Hydrologic Baseline and Water Resources Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Yang, Y. E.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

The Brahmaputra River Basin (China-India-Bhutan-Bangladesh) is on the verge of a transition from a largely free flowing and highly variable river to a basin of rapid investment and infrastructure development. This work demonstrates a knowledge platform for the basin that compiles available data, and develops hydrologic and water resources system models of the basin. A Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model of the Brahmaputra basin supplies hydrologic information of major tributaries to a water resources system model, which routes runoff generated via the VIC model through water infrastructure, and accounts for water withdrawals for agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal demand, return flows and others human activities. The system model also simulates agricultural production and the economic value of water in its various uses, including municipal, agricultural, and hydropower. Furthermore, the modeling framework incorporates plausible climate change scenarios based on the latest projections of changes to contributing glaciers (upstream), as well as changes to monsoon behavior (downstream). Water resources projects proposed in the Brahmaputra basin are evaluated based on their distribution of benefits and costs in the absence of well-defined water entitlements, and relative to a complex regional water-energy-food nexus. Results of this project will provide a basis for water sharing negotiation among the four countries and inform trans-national water-energy policy making.

A digital model for planning water management at Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge, west-central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nimick, David A.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Fields, Vanessa

2011-01-01

Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge is an important area for waterfowl production and migratory stopover in west-central Montana. Eight wetland units covering about 5,600 acres are the essential features of the refuge. Water availability for the wetland units can be uncertain owing to the large natural variations in precipitation and runoff and the high cost of pumping supplemental water. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, has developed a digital model for planning water management. The model can simulate strategies for water transfers among the eight wetland units and account for variability in runoff and pumped water. This report describes this digital model, which uses a water-accounting spreadsheet to track inputs and outputs to each of the wetland units of Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge. Inputs to the model include (1) monthly values for precipitation, pumped water, runoff, and evaporation; (2) water-level/capacity data for each wetland unit; and (3) the pan-evaporation coefficient. Outputs include monthly water volume and flooded surface area for each unit for as many as 5 consecutive years. The digital model was calibrated by comparing simulated and historical measured water volumes for specific test years.

Quantifying the economic importance of irrigation water reuse in a Chilean watershed using an integrated agent-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, R. T.; Troost, Christian; Berger, Thomas

2015-01-01

Irrigation with surface water enables Chilean agricultural producers to generate one of the country's most important economic exports. The Chilean water code established tradable water rights as a mechanism to allocate water amongst farmers and other water-use sectors. It remains contested whether this mechanism is effective and many authors have raised equity concerns regarding its impact on water users. For example, speculative hoarding of water rights in expectations of their increasing value has been described. This paper demonstrates how farmers can hoard water rights as a risk management strategy for variable water supply, for example, due to the cycles of El Niño or as consequence of climate change. While farmers with insufficient water rights can rely on unclaimed water during conditions of normal water availability, drought years overproportionally impact on their supply of irrigation water and thereby farm profitability. This study uses a simulation model that consists of a hydrological balance model component and a multiagent farm decision and production component. Both model components are parameterized with empirical data, while uncertain parameters are calibrated. The study demonstrates a thorough quantification of parameter uncertainty, using global sensitivity analysis and multiple behavioral parameter scenarios.

Model development for prediction of soil water dynamics in plant production.

PubMed

Hu, Zhengfeng; Jin, Huixia; Zhang, Kefeng

2015-09-01

Optimizing water use in agriculture and medicinal plants is crucially important worldwide. Soil sensor-controlled irrigation systems are increasingly becoming available. However it is questionable whether irrigation scheduling based on soil measurements in the top soil could make best use of water for deep-rooted crops. In this study a mechanistic model was employed to investigate water extraction by a deep-rooted cabbage crop from the soil profile throughout crop growth. The model accounts all key processes governing water dynamics in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Results show that the subsoil provides a significant proportion of the seasonal transpiration, about a third of water transpired over the whole growing season. This suggests that soil water in the entire root zone should be taken into consideration in irrigation scheduling, and for sensor-controlled irrigation systems sensors in the subsoil are essential for detecting soil water status for deep-rooted crops.

Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

2015-12-01

AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of LSM and data assimilation technology has enabled FEWS NET to take greater advantage of remote sensing observations to robustly estimate key agro-climatological states, like soil moisture and snow water equivalent, building confidence in our understanding of conditions in data sparse regions of the world.

Aqueduct: a methodology to measure and communicate global water risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gassert, Francis; Reig, Paul

2013-04-01

The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores and includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. Indicators are selected based on relevance to water users, availability and robustness of global data sources, and expert consultation, and are collected from existing datasets or derived from a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) based integrated water balance model. Indicators are normalized using a threshold approach, and composite scores are computed using a linear aggregation scheme that allows for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. By providing consistent scores across the globe, the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables rapid comparison across diverse aspects of water risk. Companies can use this information to prioritize actions, investors to leverage financial interest to improve water management, and governments to engage with the private sector to seek solutions for more equitable and sustainable water governance. The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas enables practical applications of scientific data, helping non-expert audiences better understand and evaluate risks facing water users. This presentation will discuss the methodology used to combine the indicator values into aggregated risk scores and lessons learned from working with diverse audiences in academia, development institutions, and the public and private sectors.

Estimating groundwater extraction in a data-sparse coal seam gas region, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keir, Greg; Bulovic, Nevenka; McIntyre, Neil

2017-04-01

The semi-arid Surat and Bowen Basins in central Queensland, Australia, are groundwater resources of both national and regional significance. Regional towns, agricultural industries and communities are heavily dependent on the 30 000+ groundwater supply bores for their existence; however groundwater extraction measurements are rare in this area and primarily limited to small irrigation regions. Accordingly, regional groundwater extraction is not well understood, and this may have implications for regional numerical groundwater modelling and impact assessments associated with recent coal seam gas developments. Here we present a novel statistical approach to model regional groundwater extraction that merges flow measurements / estimates with other more commonly available spatial datasets that may be of value, such as climate data, pasture data, surface water availability, etc. A three step modelling approach, combining a property scale magnitude model, a bore scale occurrence model, and a proportional distribution model within properties, is used to estimate bore extraction. We describe the process of model development and selection, and present extraction results on an aquifer-by-aquifer basis suitable for numerical groundwater modelling. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations for future research, particularly related to improvement of attribution of property-scale water demand, and temporal variability in water usage.

Future water supply and demand in response to climate change and agricultural expansion in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Zhou, T.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.

2016-12-01

With ongoing global environmental change and an increasing population, it is challenging (to say the least) to understand the complex interactions of irrigation and reservoir systems. Irrigation is critical to agricultural production and food security, and is a vital component of Texas' agricultural economy. Agricultural irrigation currently accounts for about 60% of total water demand in Texas, and recent occurrences of severe droughts has brought attention to the availability and use of water in the future. In this study, we aim to assess future agricultural irrigation water demand, and to estimate how changes in the fraction of crop irrigated land will affect future water availability in Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the United States. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which has been calibrated and validated over major Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model, coupling with an irrigation scheme and a reservoir module, is adopted to simulate the water management and regulations. The evolution on agricultural land is also considered in the model as a changing fraction of crop for each grid cell. The reservoir module is calibrated and validated based on the historical (1915-2011) storage records of major reservoirs in Texas. The model is driven by statistically downscaled climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The lowest (RCP 2.6) and highest (RC P8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios are adopted for future projections to provide an estimate of uncertainty bounds. We expect that our results will be helpful to assist decision making related to reservoir operations and agricultural water planning for Texas under future climate and environmental changes.

A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2015-02-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

2016-04-01

Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some climates, and vice versa in others. How important this variability is in supporting a policy decision, depends largely on how a decision thresholds are set. For example in the case of the aridity index, with areas being denoted as arid with an index of 0.6 or above, we show that the variability is primarily of interest in transitional climates, such as the Mediterranean The analysis shows that while both LSM's and GHM's provide useful data, indices derived to support water resources management planning may differ substantially, depending on the model used. The analysis also identifies in which climates improvements to the models are particularly relevant to support the confidence with which decisions can be taken based on derived indicators.

Benefit-cost estimation for alternative drinking water maximum contaminant levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurian, Patrick L.; Small, Mitchell J.; Lockwood, John R.; Schervish, Mark J.

2001-08-01

A simulation model for estimating compliance behavior and resulting costs at U.S. Community Water Suppliers is developed and applied to the evaluation of a more stringent maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic. Probability distributions of source water arsenic concentrations are simulated using a statistical model conditioned on system location (state) and source water type (surface water or groundwater). This model is fit to two recent national surveys of source waters, then applied with the model explanatory variables for the population of U.S. Community Water Suppliers. Existing treatment types and arsenic removal efficiencies are also simulated. Utilities with finished water arsenic concentrations above the proposed MCL are assumed to select the least cost option compatible with their existing treatment from among 21 available compliance strategies and processes for meeting the standard. Estimated costs and arsenic exposure reductions at individual suppliers are aggregated to estimate the national compliance cost, arsenic exposure reduction, and resulting bladder cancer risk reduction. Uncertainties in the estimates are characterized based on uncertainties in the occurrence model parameters, existing treatment types, treatment removal efficiencies, costs, and the bladder cancer dose-response function for arsenic.

Better Insight Into Water Resources Management With Integrated Hydrodynamic And Water Quality Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, B.; Srinivasan, R.; Parlange, J.

2004-12-01

Models have long been used in water resources management to guide decision making and improve understanding of the system. Numerous models of different scales -spatial and temporal - are available. Yet, very few models manage to bridge simulations of hydrological and water quality parameters from both upland watershed and riverine system. Most water quality models, such as QUAL2E and EPD-RIV1 concentrate on the riverine system while CE-QUAL-W2 and WASP models focus on larger waterbodies, such as lakes and reservoirs. On the other hand, the original SWAT model, HSPF and other upland watershed hydrological models simulate agricultural (diffuse) pollution sources with limited number of processes incorporated to handle point source pollutions that emanate from industrial sectors. Such limitations, which are common in most hydrodynamic and water quality models undermine better understanding that otherwise could be uncovered by employing integrated hydrological and water quality models for both upland watershed and riverine system. The SWAT model is a well documented and verified hydrological and water quality model that has been developed to simulate the effects of various management scenarios on the health of the environment in terms of water quantity and quality. Recently, the SWAT model has been extended to include the simulation of hydrodynamic and water quality parameters in the river system. The extended SWAT model (ESWAT) has been further extended to run using diurnally varying (hourly) weather data and produce outputs at hourly timescales. This and other improvements in the ESWAT model have been documented in the current work. Besides, the results from two case studies in Texas will be reported.

A simple, efficient polarizable coarse-grained water model for molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Riniker, Sereina; van Gunsteren, Wilfred F

2011-02-28

The development of coarse-grained (CG) models that correctly represent the important features of compounds is essential to overcome the limitations in time scale and system size currently encountered in atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. Most approaches reported in the literature model one or several molecules into a single uncharged CG bead. For water, this implicit treatment of the electrostatic interactions, however, fails to mimic important properties, e.g., the dielectric screening. Therefore, a coarse-grained model for water is proposed which treats the electrostatic interactions between clusters of water molecules explicitly. Five water molecules are embedded in a spherical CG bead consisting of two oppositely charged particles which represent a dipole. The bond connecting the two particles in a bead is unconstrained, which makes the model polarizable. Experimental and all-atom simulated data of liquid water at room temperature are used for parametrization of the model. The experimental density and the relative static dielectric permittivity were chosen as primary target properties. The model properties are compared with those obtained from experiment, from clusters of simple-point-charge water molecules of appropriate size in the liquid phase, and for other CG water models if available. The comparison shows that not all atomistic properties can be reproduced by a CG model, so properties of key importance have to be selected when coarse graining is applied. Yet, the CG model reproduces the key characteristics of liquid water while being computationally 1-2 orders of magnitude more efficient than standard fine-grained atomistic water models.

Aquifer thermal-energy-storage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaetzle, W. J.; Lecroy, J. E.

1982-09-01

A model aquifer was constructed to simulate the operation of a full size aquifer. Instrumentation to evaluate the water flow and thermal energy storage was installed in the system. Numerous runs injecting warm water into a preconditioned uniform aquifer were made. Energy recoveries were evaluated and agree with comparisons of other limited available data. The model aquifer is simulated in a swimming pool, 18 ft by 4 ft, which was filled with sand. Temperature probes were installed in the system. A 2 ft thick aquifer is confined by two layers of polyethylene. Both the aquifer and overburden are sand. Four well configurations are available. The system description and original tests, including energy recovery, are described.

Estimating national water use associated with unconventional oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, Janet M.; Macek-Rowland, Kathleen M.; Thamke, Joanna N.; Delzer, Gregory C.

2016-05-18

The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP) goals are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States and assist in the determination of the quantity and quality of water that is available for beneficial uses. These assessments would identify long-term trends or changes in water availability since the 1950s in the United States and help to develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast water avail- ability for future economic, energy-production, and environmental uses. The National Water Census (http://water.usgs.gov/watercensus/), a research program of the WAUSP, supports studies to develop new water accounting tools and assess water availability at the regional and national scales. Studies supported by this program target focus areas with identified water availability concerns and topical science themes related to the use of water within a specific type of environmental setting. The topical study described in this fact sheet will focus on understanding the relation between production of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) for energy and the water needed to produce and sustain this type of energy development. This relation applies to the life-cycle of renewable and nonrenewable forms of UOG energy and includes extraction, production, refinement, delivery, and disposal of waste byproducts. Water-use data and models derived from this topical study will be applied to other similar oil and gas plays within the United States to help resource managers assess and account for water used or needed in these areas. Additionally, the results from this topical study will be used to further refine the methods used in compiling water-use data for selected categories (for example, mining, domestic self-supplied, public supply, and wastewater) in the USGS’s 5-year national water-use estimates reports (http://water.usgs.gov/watuse/).

Evaluation of the ground-water flow model for northern Utah Valley, Utah, updated to conditions through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thiros, Susan A.

2006-01-01

This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley, Utah, that originally simulated ground-water conditions during 1947-1980 and was updated to include conditions estimated for 1981-2002. Estimates of annual recharge to the ground-water system and discharge from wells in the area were added to the original ground-water flow model of the area.The files used in the original transient-state model of the ground-water flow system in northern Utah Valley were imported into MODFLOW-96, an updated version of MODFLOW. The main model input files modified as part of this effort were the well and recharge files. Discharge from pumping wells in northern Utah Valley was estimated on an annual basis for 1981-2002. Although the amount of average annual withdrawals from wells has not changed much since the previous study, there have been changes in the distribution of well discharge in the area. Discharge estimates for flowing wells during 1981-2002 were assumed to be the same as those used in the last stress period of the original model because of a lack of new data. Variations in annual recharge were assumed to be proportional to changes in total surface-water inflow to northern Utah Valley. Recharge specified in the model during the additional stress periods varied from 255,000 acre-feet in 1986 to 137,000 acre-feet in 1992.The ability of the updated transient-state model to match hydrologic conditions determined for 1981-2002 was evaluated by comparing water-level changes measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements made in February, March, or April were available for 39 wells in the modeled area during all or part of 1981-2003. In most cases, the magnitude and direction of annual water-level change from 1981 to 2002 simulated by the updated model reasonably matched the measured change. The greater-than-normal precipitation that occurred during 1982-84 resulted in period-of-record high water levels measured in many of the observation wells in March 1984. The model-computed water levels at the end of 1982-84 also are among the highest for the period. Both measured and computed water levels decreased during the period representing ground-water conditions from 1999 to 2002. Precipitation was less than normal during 1999-2002.The ability of the model to adequately simulate climatic extremes such as the wetter-than-normal conditions of 1982-84 and the drier-than-normal conditions of 1999-2002 indicates that the annual variation of recharge to the ground-water system based on streamflow entering the valley, which in turn is primarily dependent upon precipitation, is appropriate but can be improved. The updated transient-state model of the ground-water system in northern Utah Valley can be improved by making revisions on the basis of currently available data and information.

Rain water transport and storage in a model sandy soil with hydrogel particle additives.

PubMed

Wei, Y; Durian, D J

2014-10-01

We study rain water infiltration and drainage in a dry model sandy soil with superabsorbent hydrogel particle additives by measuring the mass of retained water for non-ponding rainfall using a self-built 3D laboratory set-up. In the pure model sandy soil, the retained water curve measurements indicate that instead of a stable horizontal wetting front that grows downward uniformly, a narrow fingered flow forms under the top layer of water-saturated soil. This rain water channelization phenomenon not only further reduces the available rain water in the plant root zone, but also affects the efficiency of soil additives, such as superabsorbent hydrogel particles. Our studies show that the shape of the retained water curve for a soil packing with hydrogel particle additives strongly depends on the location and the concentration of the hydrogel particles in the model sandy soil. By carefully choosing the particle size and distribution methods, we may use the swollen hydrogel particles to modify the soil pore structure, to clog or extend the water channels in sandy soils, or to build water reservoirs in the plant root zone.

Analysis of confidence in continental-scale groundwater recharge estimates for Africa using a distributed water balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, Jonathan; Mansour, Majdi; Bonsor, Helen; Pachocka, Magdalena; Wang, Lei; MacDonald, Alan; Macdonald, David; Bloomfield, John

2014-05-01

There is a growing need for improved access to reliable water in Africa as population and food production increases. Currently approximately 300 million people do not have access to a secure source of safe drinking water. To meet these current and future demands, groundwater will need to be increasingly abstracted; groundwater is more reliable than surface water sources due to its relatively long response time to meteorological stresses and therefore is likely to be a more secure water resource in a more variable climate. Recent studies also quantified the volumes of groundwater potentially available which suggest that, if exploited, groundwater could help to meet the demand for fresh water. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how these resources may respond in the future due to changes in groundwater recharge and abstraction. Understanding and quantifying groundwater recharge is vital as it forms a primary indicator of the sustainability of underlying groundwater resources. Computational hydrological models provide a means to do this, but the complexity of recharge processes in Africa mean that these simulations are often highly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate our confidence in simulating groundwater recharge over Africa based on a sensitivity analysis using a distributed hydrological model developed by the British Geological Survey, ZOODRM. The model includes land surface, canopy, river, soil and groundwater components. Each component is able to exchange water and as such, forms a distributed water balance of Africa. The components have been parameterised using available spatial datasets of African vegetation, land-use, soil and hydrogeology while the remaining parameters have been estimated by calibrating the model to available river flow data. Continental-scale gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets, based on remotely sensed and ground observations, have been used to force the model. Following calibration, the sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in two stages. For the first stage, individual parameters are perturbed from each component of the model. For the second stage, different methods for calculating groundwater recharge are introduced. Both stages aim to investigate which aspects of the model most impact on groundwater recharge and consequently how confidently we can simulate the complex recharge processes that occur in Africa using large scale hydrological models. Preliminary results from the analysis indicate the parameters that control runoff generation from the land surface and the choice of groundwater recharge calculation method both have a significant impact on groundwater recharge simulations.

Estimating system parameters for solvent-water and plant cuticle-water using quantum chemically estimated Abraham solute parameters.

PubMed

Liang, Yuzhen; Torralba-Sanchez, Tifany L; Di Toro, Dominic M

2018-04-18

Polyparameter Linear Free Energy Relationships (pp-LFERs) using Abraham system parameters have many useful applications. However, developing the Abraham system parameters depends on the availability and quality of the Abraham solute parameters. Using Quantum Chemically estimated Abraham solute Parameters (QCAP) is shown to produce pp-LFERs that have lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) of predictions for solvent-water partition coefficients than parameters that are estimated using other presently available methods. pp-LFERs system parameters are estimated for solvent-water, plant cuticle-water systems, and for novel compounds using QCAP solute parameters and experimental partition coefficients. Refitting the system parameter improves the calculation accuracy and eliminates the bias. Refitted models for solvent-water partition coefficients using QCAP solute parameters give better results (RMSE = 0.278 to 0.506 log units for 24 systems) than those based on ABSOLV (0.326 to 0.618) and QSPR (0.294 to 0.700) solute parameters. For munition constituents and munition-like compounds not included in the calibration of the refitted model, QCAP solute parameters produce pp-LFER models with much lower RMSEs for solvent-water partition coefficients (RMSE = 0.734 and 0.664 for original and refitted model, respectively) than ABSOLV (4.46 and 5.98) and QSPR (2.838 and 2.723). Refitting plant cuticle-water pp-LFER including munition constituents using QCAP solute parameters also results in lower RMSE (RMSE = 0.386) than that using ABSOLV (0.778) and QSPR (0.512) solute parameters. Therefore, for fitting a model in situations for which experimental data exist and system parameters can be re-estimated, or for which system parameters do not exist and need to be developed, QCAP is the quantum chemical method of choice.

Plant functional diversity increases grassland productivity-related water vapor fluxes: an Ecotron and modeling approach.

PubMed

Milcu, Alexandru; Eugster, Werner; Bachmann, Dörte; Guderle, Marcus; Roscher, Christiane; Gockele, Annette; Landais, Damien; Ravel, Olivier; Gessler, Arthur; Lange, Markus; Ebeling, Anne; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Roy, Jacques; Hildebrandt, Anke; Buchmann, Nina

2016-08-01

The impact of species richness and functional diversity of plants on ecosystem water vapor fluxes has been little investigated. To address this knowledge gap, we combined a lysimeter setup in a controlled environment facility (Ecotron) with large ecosystem samples/monoliths originating from a long-term biodiversity experiment (The Jena Experiment) and a modeling approach. Our goals were (1) quantifying the impact of plant species richness (four vs. 16 species) on day- and nighttime ecosystem water vapor fluxes; (2) partitioning ecosystem evapotranspiration into evaporation and plant transpiration using the Shuttleworth and Wallace (SW) energy partitioning model; and (3) identifying the most parsimonious predictors of water vapor fluxes using plant functional-trait-based metrics such as functional diversity and community weighted means. Daytime measured and modeled evapotranspiration were significantly higher in the higher plant diversity treatment, suggesting increased water acquisition. The SW model suggests that, at low plant species richness, a higher proportion of the available energy was diverted to evaporation (a non-productive flux), while, at higher species richness, the proportion of ecosystem transpiration (a productivity-related water flux) increased. While it is well established that LAI controls ecosystem transpiration, here we also identified that the diversity of leaf nitrogen concentration among species in a community is a consistent predictor of ecosystem water vapor fluxes during daytime. The results provide evidence that, at the peak of the growing season, higher leaf area index (LAI) and lower percentage of bare ground at high plant diversity diverts more of the available water to transpiration, a flux closely coupled with photosynthesis and productivity. Higher rates of transpiration presumably contribute to the positive effect of diversity on productivity. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

2015-01-01

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

Hydrologic Effects and Biogeographic Impacts of Coastal Fog, Channel Islands, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, D. T.; Still, C. J.; Williams, A. P.

2006-12-01

Fog has long been recognized as an important component of the hydrological cycle in many ecosystems, including coastal desert fog belts, tropical cloud forests, and montane areas worldwide. Fog drip can be a major source of water, particularly during the dry season, and there is evidence in some ecosystems of direct fogwater uptake by foliar absorption. Fog and low clouds can also increase availability of water by reducing evaporative water losses. In the California Channel Islands, fog and low stratus clouds dramatically affect the water budget of coastal vegetation, particularly during the long summer drought. This work focuses on a population of Bishop pine (Pinus muricata D. Don) on Santa Cruz Island. This is the southernmost large stand of this species, and tree growth and survival appears to be strongly limited by water availability. We have used parallel measurement and modeling approaches to quantify the importance of fogwater inputs and persistent cloud cover to Bishop pine growth. We have modeled drought stress over the last century based on local climate records, calibrated against a dense network of 12 weather stations on a 7km coastal-inland elevation gradient. Water availability is highly variable year to year, with episodic droughts that are associated with widespread tree mortality. Frequent cloud cover near the coast reduces evapotranspiration relative to the inland site (on the order of 25%), thereby delaying the onset of, and moderating the severity of the annual summer drought. Substantial summer fog drip at higher elevations provides additional water inputs that also reduce drought severity. Beyond the theoretical availability of extra water from fog drip, tree ring analysis and xylem water isotopic data suggest that significant amounts of fog water are actually taken up by these trees. Stand boundaries appear to be driven by spatial patterns of mortality related to water availability and frequency of severe drought. These results suggest that coastal endemic forests may be particularly susceptible to climate change, particularly if it leads to changes in the fog and low stratus cloud regime, in agreement with palynological and plant macrofossil evidence from the Santa Barbara basin showing the contraction of coastal pines during warm periods over the last 160 kyrs.

A new model for the biodegradation kinetics of oil droplets: application to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Oil biodegradation by native bacteria is one of the most important natural processes that can attenuate the environmental impacts of marine oil spills. Existing models for oil biodegradation kinetics are mostly for dissolved oil. This work developed a new mathematical model for the biodegradation of oil droplets and applied the model to estimate the time scale for oil biodegradation under conditions relevant to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In the model, oil is composed of droplets of various sizes following the gamma function distribution. Each oil droplet shrinks during the microbe-mediated degradation at the oil-water interface. Using our developed model, we find that the degradation of oil droplets typically goes through two stages. The first stage is characterized by microbial activity unlimited by oil-water interface with higher biodegradation rates than that of the dissolved oil. The second stage is governed by the availability of the oil-water interface, which results in much slower rates than that of soluble oil. As a result, compared to that of the dissolved oil, the degradation of oil droplets typically starts faster and then quickly slows down, ultimately reaching a smaller percentage of degraded oil in longer time. The availability of the water-oil interface plays a key role in determining the rates and extent of degradation. We find that several parameters control biodegradation rates, including size distribution of oil droplets, initial microbial concentrations, initial oil concentration and composition. Under conditions relevant to the Deepwater Horizon spill, we find that the size distribution of oil droplets (mean and coefficient of variance) is the most important parameter because it determines the availability of the oil-water interface. Smaller oil droplets with larger variance leads to faster and larger extent of degradation. The developed model will be useful for evaluating transport and fate of spilled oil, different remediation strategies, and risk assessment. PMID:24138161

Hyper-Resolution Groundwater Modeling using MODFLOW 6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, J. D.; Langevin, C.

2017-12-01

MODFLOW 6 is the latest version of the U.S. Geological Survey's modular hydrologic model. MODFLOW 6 was developed to synthesize many of the recent versions of MODFLOW into a single program, improve the way different process models are coupled, and to provide an object-oriented framework for adding new types of models and packages. The object-oriented framework and underlying numerical solver make it possible to tightly couple any number of hyper-resolution models within coarser regional models. The hyper-resolution models can be used to evaluate local-scale groundwater issues that may be affected by regional-scale forcings. In MODFLOW 6, hyper-resolution meshes can be maintained as separate model datasets, similar to MODFLOW-LGR, which simplifies the development of a coarse regional model with imbedded hyper-resolution models from a coarse regional model. For example, the South Atlantic Coastal Plain regional water availability model was converted from a MODFLOW-2000 model to a MODFLOW 6 model. The horizontal discretization of the original model is approximately 3,218 m x 3,218 m. Hyper-resolution models of the Aiken and Sumter County water budget areas in South Carolina with a horizontal discretization of approximately 322 m x 322 m were developed and were tightly coupled to a modified version of the original coarse regional model that excluded these areas. Hydraulic property and aquifer geometry data from the coarse model were mapped to the hyper-resolution models. The discretization of the hyper-resolution models is fine enough to make detailed analyses of the effect that changes in groundwater withdrawals in the production aquifers have on the water table and surface-water/groundwater interactions. The approach used in this analysis could be applied to other regional water availability models that have been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey to evaluate local scale groundwater issues.

Modeling the effect of seasonal variation in ambient temperature on the transmission dynamics of a pathogen with a free-living stage: example of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd.

PubMed

Gautam, Raju; Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Neill, William H; Döpfer, Dörte; Kaspar, Charles; Ivanek, Renata

2011-10-01

To explore the potential role of ambient temperature on infection transmission dynamics for pathogens, we used Escherichia coli O157:H7 in a dairy herd and the surrounding farm environment as a model system. For this system, we developed a mathematical model in which a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model of infection spread through the host population is coupled with a metapopulation model of E. coli O157:H7 free-living stage in the environment allowing bacterial growth to be influenced by ambient temperature. Model results indicate that seasonal variation in ambient temperature could have a considerable impact on pathogen populations in the environment, specifically on barn surfaces and in water troughs, and consequently on the prevalence of infection in the host population. Based on model assumptions, contaminated drinking water was the most important pathway of E. coli O157:H7 transmission to cattle. Sensitivity analysis indicated that water-borne transmission is amplified during the warmer months if the amount of standing drinking water available to the cattle herd is high. This is because warmer ambient temperature favors faster pathogen replication which when combined with slower water replacement-rate due to high amount of available standing water leads to a greater pathogen load in drinking water. These results offer a possible explanation of the seasonal variation in E. coli O157:H7 prevalence in cattle and suggest that improved drinking-water management could be used for control of this infection in cattle. Our study demonstrates how consideration of ambient temperature in transmission cycles of pathogens able to survive and grow in the environment outside the host could offer novel perspectives on the spread and control of infections caused by such pathogens. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Crop-Water Consumption Simulation to Support Agricultural Water Resource Management using Satellite-based Water Cycle Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, M.; Bolten, J. D.; Lakshmi, V.

2016-12-01

Water scarcity is one of the main factors limiting agricultural development. Numerical models integrated with remote sensing datasets are increasingly being used operationally as inputs for crop water balance models and agricultural forecasting due to increasing availability of high temporal and spatial resolution datasets. However, the model accuracy in simulating soil water content is affected by the accuracy of the soil hydraulic parameters used in the model, which are used in the governing equations. However, soil databases are known to have a high uncertainty across scales. Also, for agricultural sites, the in-situ measurements of soil moisture are currently limited to discrete measurements at specific locations, and such point-based measurements do not represent the spatial distribution at a larger scale accurately, as soil moisture is highly variable both spatially and temporally. The present study utilizes effective soil hydraulic parameters obtained using a 1-km downscaled microwave remote sensing soil moisture product based on the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) using the genetic algorithm inverse method within the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). Secondly, to provide realistic irrigation estimates for agricultural sites, an irrigation scheme within the land surface model is triggered when the root-zone soil moisture deficit reaches the threshold, 50% with respect to the maximum available water capacity obtained from the effective soil hydraulic parameters. An additional important criterion utilized is the estimation of crop water consumption based on dynamic root growth and uptake in root zone layer. Model performance is evaluated using MODIS land surface temperature (LST) product. The soil moisture estimates for the root zone are also validated with the in situ field data, for three sites (2- irrigated and 1- rainfed) located at the University of Nebraska Agricultural Research and Development Center near Mead, NE and monitored by three AmeriFlux installations (Verma et al., 2005).

Application of the Basin Characterization Model to Estimate In-Place Recharge and Runoff Potential in the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2007-01-01

A regional-scale water-balance model was used to estimate recharge and runoff potential and support U.S. Geological Survey efforts to develop a better understanding of water availability for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study in White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah. The water-balance model, or Basin Characterization Model (BCM), was used to estimate regional ground-water recharge for the 13 hydrographic areas in the study area. The BCM calculates recharge by using a distributed-parameter, water-balance method and monthly climatic boundary conditions. The BCM requires geographic information system coverages of soil, geology, and topographic information with monthly time-varying climatic conditions of air temperature and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are distributed spatially with process models. When combined with surface properties of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of bedrock and alluvium, the potential water available for in-place recharge and runoff is calculated using monthly time steps using a grid scale of 866 feet (270 meters). The BCM was used with monthly climatic inputs from 1970 to 2004, and results were averaged to provide an estimate of the average annual recharge for the BARCAS study area. The model estimates 526,000 acre-feet of potential in-place recharge and approximately 398,000 acre-feet of potential runoff. Assuming 15 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, the model estimates average annual ground-water recharge for the BARCAS area of about 586,000 acre-feet. When precipitation is extrapolated to the long-term climatic record (1895-2006), average annual recharge is estimated to be 530,000 acre-feet, or about 9 percent less than the recharge estimated for 1970-2004.

Implementation of local grid refinement (LGR) for the Lake Michigan Basin regional groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, C.J.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating water availability and use within the Great Lakes Basin. This is a pilot effort to develop new techniques and methods to aid in the assessment of water availability. As part of the pilot program, a regional groundwater-flow model for the Lake Michigan Basin was developed using SEAWAT-2000. The regional model was used as a framework for assessing local-scale water availability through grid-refinement techniques. Two grid-refinement techniques, telescopic mesh refinement and local grid refinement, were used to illustrate the capability of the regional model to evaluate local-scale problems. An intermediate model was developed in central Michigan spanning an area of 454 square miles (mi2) using telescopic mesh refinement. Within the intermediate model, a smaller local model covering an area of 21.7 mi2 was developed and simulated using local grid refinement. Recharge was distributed in space and time using a daily output from a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance method. The soil-water-balance method derived recharge estimates from temperature and precipitation data output from an atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model. The particular atmosphere-ocean coupled general-circulation model used, simulated climate change caused by high global greenhouse-gas emissions to the atmosphere. The surface-water network simulated in the regional model was refined and simulated using a streamflow-routing package for MODFLOW. The refined models were used to demonstrate streamflow depletion and potential climate change using five scenarios. The streamflow-depletion scenarios include (1) natural conditions (no pumping), (2) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in surficial glacial deposits, (3) a pumping well near a stream; the well is screened in deeper glacial deposits, and (4) a pumping well near a stream; the well is open to a deep bedrock aquifer. Results indicated that a range of 59 to 50 percent of the water pumped originated from the stream for the shallow glacial and deep bedrock pumping scenarios, respectively. The difference in streamflow reduction between the shallow and deep pumping scenarios was compensated for in the deep well by deriving more water from regional sources. The climate-change scenario only simulated natural conditions from 1991-2044, so there was no pumping stress simulated. Streamflows were calculated for the simulated period and indicated that recharge over the period generally increased from the start of the simulation until approximately 2017, and decreased from then to the end of the simulation. Streamflow was highly correlated with recharge so that the lowest streamflows occurred in the later stress periods of the model when recharge was lowest.

Digital-model simulation of the Toppenish alluvial aquifer, Yakima Indian Reservation, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bolke, E.L.; Skrivan, James A.

1981-01-01

Increasing demands for irrigating additional lands and proposals to divert water from the Yakima River by water users downstream from the Yakima Indian Reservation have made an accounting of water availability important for present-day water management in the Toppenish Creek basin. A digital model was constructed and calibrated for the Toppenish alluvial aquifer to help fulfill this need. The average difference between observed and model-calculated aquifer heads was about 4 feet. Results of model analysis show that the net gain from the Yakima River to the aquifer is 90 cubic feet per second, and the net loss from the aquifer to Toppenish Creek is 137 cubic feet per second. Water-level declines of about 5 feet were calculated for an area near Toppenish in response to a hypothetical tenfold increase in 1974 pumping rates. (USGS)

Climatic and physiographic controls of spatial variability in surface water balance over the contiguous United States using the Budyko relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Ficklin, Darren L.

2017-09-01

The geographic variability in the partitioning of precipitation into surface runoff (Q) and evapotranspiration (ET) is fundamental to understanding regional water availability. The Budyko equation suggests this partitioning is strictly a function of aridity, yet observed deviations from this relationship for individual watersheds impede using the framework to model surface water balance in ungauged catchments and under future climate and land use scenarios. A set of climatic, physiographic, and vegetation metrics were used to model the spatial variability in the partitioning of precipitation for 211 watersheds across the contiguous United States (CONUS) within Budyko's framework through the free parameter ω. A generalized additive model found that four widely available variables, precipitation seasonality, the ratio of soil water holding capacity to precipitation, topographic slope, and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow, explained 81.2% of the variability in ω. The ω model applied to the Budyko equation explained 97% of the spatial variability in long-term Q for an independent set of watersheds. The ω model was also applied to estimate the long-term water balance across the CONUS for both contemporary and mid-21st century conditions. The modeled partitioning of observed precipitation to Q and ET compared favorably across the CONUS with estimates from more sophisticated land-surface modeling efforts. For mid-21st century conditions, the model simulated an increase in the fraction of precipitation used by ET across the CONUS with declines in Q for much of the eastern CONUS and mountainous watersheds across the western United States.

Research on water shortage risks and countermeasures in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yuxiang; Fang, Wenxuan; Wu, Ziqin

2017-05-01

In the paper, a grey forecasting model and a population growth model are established for forecasting water resources supply and demand situation in the region, and evaluating the scarcity of water resources thereof in order to solve the problem of water shortage in North China. A concrete plan for alleviating water resources pressure is proposed with AHP as basis, thereby discussing the feasibility of the plan. Firstly, water resources supply and demand in the future 15 years are predicted. There are four sources for the demand of water resources mainly: industry, agriculture, ecology and resident living. Main supply sources include surface water and underground water resources. A grey forecasting method is adopted for predicting in the paper aiming at water resources demands since industrial, agricultural and ecological water consumption data have excessive decision factors and the correlation is relatively fuzzy. Since residents' water consumption is determined by per capita water consumption and local population, a logistic growth model is adopted to forecast the population. The grey forecasting method is used for predicting per capita water consumption, and total water demand can be obtained finally. International calculation standards are adopted as reference aiming at water supply. The grey forecasting method is adopted for forecasting surface water quantity and underground water quantity, and water resources supply is obtained finally. Per capita water availability in the region is calculated by comparing the water resources supply and demand. Results show that per capita water availability in the region is only 283 cubic meters this year, people live in serious water shortage region, who will suffer from water shortage state for long time. Then, sensitivity analysis is applied for model test. The test result is excellent, and the prediction results are more accurate. In the paper, the following measures are proposed for improving water resources condition in the region according to prediction results, such as construction of reservoirs, sewage treatment, water diversion project and other measures. A detailed water supply plan is formulated. Water supply weights of all measures are determined according to the AHP model. Solution is sought after original models are improved. Results show that water resources quantity per capita will be up to 2170 cubic meters or so this year, people suffer from moderate water shortage in the region, which can meet people's life needs and economic development needs basically. In addition, water resources quantity per capita is increased year by year, and it can reach mild water shortage level after 2030. In a word, local water resources dilemma can be effectively solved by the plan actually, and thoughts can be provided for decision makers.

Stormwater harvesting for irrigation purposes: an investigation of chemical quality of water recycled in pervious pavement system.

PubMed

Nnadi, Ernest O; Newman, Alan P; Coupe, Stephen J; Mbanaso, Fredrick U

2015-01-01

Most available water resources in the world are used for agricultural irrigation. Whilst this level of water use is expected to increase due to rising world population and land use, available water resources are expected to become limited due to climate change and uneven rainfall distribution. Recycled stormwater has the potential to be used as an alternative source of irrigation water and part of sustainable water management strategy. This paper reports on a study to investigate whether a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) technique, known as the pervious pavements system (PPS) has the capability to recycle water that meets irrigation water quality standard. Furthermore, the experiment provided information on the impact of hydrocarbon (which was applied to simulate oil dripping from parked vehicles onto PPS), leaching of nutrients from different layers of the PPS and effects of nutrients (applied to enhance bioremediation) on the stormwater recycling efficiency of the PPS. A weekly dose of 6.23 × 10(-3) L of lubricating oil and single dose of 17.06 g of polymer coated controlled-release fertilizer granules were applied to the series of 710 mm × 360 mm model pervious pavement structure except the controls. Rainfall intensity of 7.4 mm/h was applied to the test models at the rate of 3 events per week. Analysis of the recycled water showed that PPS has the capability to recycle stormwater to a quality that meets the chemical standards for use in agricultural irrigation irrespective of the type of sub-base used. There is a potential benefit of nutrient availability in recycled water for plants, but care should be taken not to dispose of this water in natural water courses as it might result in eutrophication problems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preserving the world second largest hypersaline lake under future irrigation and climate change.

PubMed

Shadkam, Somayeh; Ludwig, Fulco; van Vliet, Michelle T H; Pastor, Amandine; Kabat, Pavel

2016-07-15

Iran Urmia Lake, the world second largest hypersaline lake, has been largely desiccated over the last two decades resulting in socio-environmental consequences similar or even larger than the Aral Sea disaster. To rescue the lake a new water management plan has been proposed, a rapid 40% decline in irrigation water use replacing a former plan which intended to develop reservoirs and irrigation. However, none of these water management plans, which have large socio-economic impacts, have been assessed under future changes in climate and water availability. By adapting a method of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) for hypersaline lakes, we estimated annually 3.7·10(9)m(3) water is needed to preserve Urmia Lake. Then, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was forced with bias-corrected climate model outputs for both the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest (RCP8.5) greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios to estimate future water availability and impacts of water management strategies. Results showed a 10% decline in future water availability in the basin under RCP2.6 and 27% under RCP8.5. Our results showed that if future climate change is highly limited (RCP2.6) inflow can be just enough to meet the EFRs by implementing the reduction irrigation plan. However, under more rapid climate change scenario (RCP8.5) reducing irrigation water use will not be enough to save the lake and more drastic measures are needed. Our results showed that future water management plans are not robust under climate change in this region. Therefore, an integrated approach of future land-water use planning and climate change adaptation is therefore needed to improve future water security and to reduce the desiccating of this hypersaline lake. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sectoral contributions to surface water stress in the coterminous United States

Treesearch

K. Averyt; J. Meldrum; P. Caldwell; G. Sun; S. McNulty; A. Huber-Lee; N. Madden

2013-01-01

Here, we assess current stress in the freshwater system based on the best available data in order to understand possible risks and vulnerabilities to regional water resources and the sectors dependent on freshwater. We present watershed-scale measures of surface water supply stress for the coterminous United States (US) using the water supply stress index (WaSSI) model...

Shale Gas Well, Hydraulic Fracturing, and Formation Data to Support Modeling of Gas and Water Flow in Shale Formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Ryan W. J.; Celia, Michael A.

2018-04-01

The potential for shale gas development and hydraulic fracturing to cause subsurface water contamination has prompted a number of modeling studies to assess the risk. A significant impediment for conducting robust modeling is the lack of comprehensive publicly available information and data about the properties of shale formations, shale wells, the process of hydraulic fracturing, and properties of the hydraulic fractures. We have collated a substantial amount of these data that are relevant for modeling multiphase flow of water and gas in shale gas formations. We summarize these data and their sources in tabulated form.

A dynamic simulation based water resources education tool.

PubMed

Williams, Alison; Lansey, Kevin; Washburne, James

2009-01-01

Educational tools to assist the public in recognizing impacts of water policy in a realistic context are not generally available. This project developed systems with modeling-based educational decision support simulation tools to satisfy this need. The goal of this model is to teach undergraduate students and the general public about the implications of common water management alternatives so that they can better understand or become involved in water policy and make more knowledgeable personal or community decisions. The model is based on Powersim, a dynamic simulation software package capable of producing web-accessible, intuitive, graphic, user-friendly interfaces. Modules are included to represent residential, agricultural, industrial, and turf uses, as well as non-market values, water quality, reservoir, flow, and climate conditions. Supplementary materials emphasize important concepts and lead learners through the model, culminating in an open-ended water management project. The model is used in a University of Arizona undergraduate class and within the Arizona Master Watershed Stewards Program. Evaluation results demonstrated improved understanding of concepts and system interactions, fulfilling the project's objectives.

Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, R.; Lund, J. R.; DeOreo, B.; Medellín-Azuara, J.

2013-10-01

The increased availability of end use measurement studies allows for mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study simulates water use in a single-family residential neighborhood using end-water-use parameter probability distributions generated from Monte Carlo sampling. This model represents existing water use conditions in 2010 and is calibrated to 2006-2011 metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost-effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

Household water use and conservation models using Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahill, R.; Lund, J. R.; DeOreo, B.; Medellín-Azuara, J.

2013-04-01

The increased availability of water end use measurement studies allows for more mechanistic and detailed approaches to estimating household water demand and conservation potential. This study uses, probability distributions for parameters affecting water use estimated from end use studies and randomly sampled in Monte Carlo iterations to simulate water use in a single-family residential neighborhood. This model represents existing conditions and is calibrated to metered data. A two-stage mixed integer optimization model is then developed to estimate the least-cost combination of long- and short-term conservation actions for each household. This least-cost conservation model provides an estimate of the upper bound of reasonable conservation potential for varying pricing and rebate conditions. The models were adapted from previous work in Jordan and are applied to a neighborhood in San Ramon, California in eastern San Francisco Bay Area. The existing conditions model produces seasonal use results very close to the metered data. The least-cost conservation model suggests clothes washer rebates are among most cost-effective rebate programs for indoor uses. Retrofit of faucets and toilets is also cost effective and holds the highest potential for water savings from indoor uses. This mechanistic modeling approach can improve understanding of water demand and estimate cost-effectiveness of water conservation programs.

Influence of vegetation dynamic modeling on the allocation of green and blue waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Pérez, Guiomar; Francés, Félix

2015-04-01

The long history of the Mediterranean region is dominated by the interactions and co-evolution between man and its natural environment. It is important to consider that the Mediterranean region is recurrently or permanently confronted with the scarcity of the water. The issue of climate change is (and will be) aggravating this situation. This raises the question of a loss of services that ecosystems provide to human and also the amount of available water to be used by vegetation. The question of the water cycle, therefore, should be considered in an integrated manner by taking into account both blue water (water in liquid form used for the human needs or which flows into the oceans) and green water (water having the vapor for resulting from evaporation and transpiration processes). In spite of this, traditionally, very few hydrological models have incorporated the vegetation dynamic as a state variable. In fact, most of them are able to represent fairly well the observed discharge, but usually including the vegetation as a static parameter. However, in the last decade, the number of hydrological models which explicitly take into account the vegetation development as a state variable has increased substantially. In this work, we want to analyze if it is really necessary to use a dynamic vegetation model to quantify adequately the distribution of water into blue and green water. The study site is located in the Public Forest Monte de la Hunde y Palomeras (Spain). The vegetation in the study area is dominated by Aleppo pine of high tree density with scant presence of other species. Two different daily models were applied (with static and dynamic vegetation representation respectively) in three different scenarios: dry year (2005), normal year (2008) and wet year (2010). The static vegetation model simulates the evapotranspiration considering the vegetation as a stationary parameter. Contrarily, the dynamic vegetation model connects the hydrological model with a parsimonious dynamic vegetation sub-model which assumes the vegetation biomass as a state variable. Using both models, we estimated the amount of 'blue' water and the amount of 'green' water (according to the previous definitions) in each scenario. Comparing the results, we observed that the static model underestimated the amount of green water in any case (dry, normal or wet year). In fact, the value of the ratio between blue and green water is higher in all scenarios for the static option (0.23 in the dry year, 0.42 in the normal year and 0.96 in the wet year) than the obtained ones for the dynamic model (0.098, 0.29 and 0.76, respectively). It means that we are overestimating the amount of water available for human needs if we assume vegetation as static. This type of error can be very dangerous for water resources predictions with future climates, especially in Mediterranean areas due to their water scarcity.

Large-Scale Water Resources Management within the Framework of GLOWA-Danube - Part B: The Water Supply Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nickel, D.; Barthel, R.; Schmid, C.; Braun, J.

2003-04-01

The research project GLOWA-Danube, financed by the German Federal Government, investigates long-term changes in the water cycle of the Upper Danube river basin in light of global climatic change. Its concrete aim is to build a fully integrated decision support tool that combines the competence of eleven different institutes in domains covering all major aspects governing the water cycle - from the formation of clouds to groundwater flow patterns to the behaviour of the water consumer. The research group "Water Supply" at the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering (IWS), Universitaet Stuttgart, has the central task of creating an agent-based model of the water supply sector. The Water Supply model will act as a link between the various physical models determining water quality and availability on the one hand and the actors models determining water demand on the other, which together form the tool DANUBIA. Ultimately, with the help of scenario testing, the water supply model will indicate the ability of the water supply system in the Upper Danube catchment to adapt to changing boundary conditions using different management approaches. The specific aim of the Water Supply model is the creation of a model which is not only able to simulate the present day system of water extraction, treatment and distribution but also its development and change with time. As most changes to the system are brought about by decisions made by relevant actors in the field of water management or their behaviour (in response to political and economic boundary conditions, changes in water demand or water quality, advances in technology etc.), the use of agent-based modelling was chosen, whereby an agent is seen as a computer system (in our case representing a human or group of humans) which is aware of its environment, has defined objectives and is able to act independently in order to meet these objectives. Whereas agent-based modelling has received much attention over the past decades, the use of this type of modelling for water supply systems is something very new. The initial step is the development of a conceptual water supply model (using JAVA), in which both the model boundaries and area of expertise as well as parameters to be exchanged between the Water Supply model and other models are defined. The data required to create model for such a large area is not available from the authorities, common interest organisations or in the public statistics. In order to gain access to more specific information regarding individual water supply companies, the Water Supply group is currently carrying out a wide-spread questionnaire addressed to all water supply companies in the GLOWA-Danube model area - well over 1000 in total in Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Austria and Switzerland. The questionnaire contains questions pertaining to the two distinct fields, "economics and pricing" and "technical aspects", and aims at gathering information regarding the present day situation of the water supply system, the developments over the past 10 years as well as planned developments for the immediate future. Later, the focus will shift towards the stakeholders from the field of water resources management. A catalogue of decision-making rules will be prepared as a basis for discussion and will be debated with the relevant stakeholders. These rules will provide the basis for decision-making algorithms which will allow model agents to respond to their environment, communicate with one anther and behave in a goal-oriented manner to bring about change in the water supply system in response to changing conditions with regard to the climate, water quality, political and social boundary conditions, and changing demand.

Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Chi, Baoliang; Oenema, Oene

2013-01-01

Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0–200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m3. Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE. PMID:24302987

Higher plant modelling for life support applications: first results of a simple mechanistic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hezard, Pauline; Dussap, Claude-Gilles; Sasidharan L, Swathy

2012-07-01

In the case of closed ecological life support systems, the air and water regeneration and food production are performed using microorganisms and higher plants. Wheat, rice, soybean, lettuce, tomato or other types of eatable annual plants produce fresh food while recycling CO2 into breathable oxygen. Additionally, they evaporate a large quantity of water, which can be condensed and used as potable water. This shows that recycling functions of air revitalization and food production are completely linked. Consequently, the control of a growth chamber for higher plant production has to be performed with efficient mechanistic models, in order to ensure a realistic prediction of plant behaviour, water and gas recycling whatever the environmental conditions. Purely mechanistic models of plant production in controlled environments are not available yet. This is the reason why new models must be developed and validated. This work concerns the design and test of a simplified version of a mathematical model coupling plant architecture and mass balance purposes in order to compare its results with available data of lettuce grown in closed and controlled chambers. The carbon exchange rate, water absorption and evaporation rate, biomass fresh weight as well as leaf surface are modelled and compared with available data. The model consists of four modules. The first one evaluates plant architecture, like total leaf surface, leaf area index and stem length data. The second one calculates the rate of matter and energy exchange depending on architectural and environmental data: light absorption in the canopy, CO2 uptake or release, water uptake and evapotranspiration. The third module evaluates which of the previous rates is limiting overall biomass growth; and the last one calculates biomass growth rate depending on matter exchange rates, using a global stoichiometric equation. All these rates are a set of differential equations, which are integrated with time in order to provide total biomass fresh weight during the full growth duration. The model predicts a growth with exponential rate at the beginning and then it becomes linear for the end of the growth; this follows rather accurately the experimental data. Even if this model is too simple to be realistic for more complex plants in changing environments, this is the first step for an integrated approach of plant growth accounting of architectural and mass transfer limitations.

Metabolic modelling to support long term strategic decisions on water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciriello, Valentina; Felisa, Giada; Lauriola, Ilaria; Pomanti, Flavio; Di Federico, Vittorio

2017-04-01

Water resources are essential for the economic development and sustenance of anthropic activities belonging to the civil, agricultural and industrial sectors. Nevertheless, availability of water resources is not uniformly distributed in space and time. Moreover, the increasing water demand, mainly due to population growth and expansion of agricultural crops, may cause increasing water stress conditions, if combined with the effects of climate change. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to improve the resilience of water supply systems both in terms of infrastructures and environmental compliance. Metabolic modelling approaches represent a flexible tool able to provide support to decision making in the long term, based on sustainability criteria. These approaches mimic the water supply network through a set of material and energy fluxes that interact and influence each other. By analyzing these fluxes, a suite of key performance indicators is evaluated in order to identify which kind of interventions may be applied to increase the sustainability of the system. Here, we adopt these concepts to analyze the water supply network of Reggio-Emilia (Italy) which is supported by water withdrawals from both surface water and groundwater bodies. We analyze different scenarios, including possible reduction of water withdrawals from one of the different sources as a consequence of a decrease in water availability under present and future scenarios. On these basis, we identify preventive strategies for a dynamic management of the water supply system.

The inequality of water scarcity events: who is actually being affected?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Wada, Yoshihide; Kummu, Matti; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

2015-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increased regional and global water scarcity problems. In the near future, projected changes in human water use and population growth - in combination with climate change - are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions and its associated impacts on our society. Whilst a wide range of studies have modelled past and future regional and global patterns of change in population or land area impacted by water scarcity conditions, less attention is paid on who is actually affected and how vulnerable this share of the population is to water scarcity conditions. The actual impact of water scarcity events, however, not only depends on the numbers being affected, but merely on how sensitive this population is to water scarcity conditions, how quick and efficient governments can deal with the problems induced by water scarcity, and how many (financial and infrastructural) resources are available to cope with water scarce conditions. Only few studies have investigated the above mentioned interactions between societal composition and water scarcity conditions (e.g. by means of the social water scarcity index and the water poverty index) and, up to our knowledge, a comprehensive global analysis including different water scarcity indicators and multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios is missing. To address this issue, we assess in this contribution the adaptive capacity of a society to water scarcity conditions, evaluate how this may be driven by different societal factors, and discuss how enhanced knowledge on this topic could be of interest for water managers in their design of adaptation strategies coping with water scarcity events. For that purpose, we couple spatial information on water scarcity conditions with different components from, among others, the Human Development Index and the Worldwide Governance Indicators, such as: the share of the population with an income below the poverty line; mean year of schooling; the ratio between urban and rural population; import and export rates; political stability; corruption; and government effectiveness. Moreover, we also take into account the accessibility of fresh water bodies and markets. Underlying water scarcity conditions were estimated as follows: (1) yearly water availability was calculated at 0.5° x 0.5° over the period 1971-2099 using daily discharge and run-off fields from the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, forced with different climate change scenarios; (2) statistical methods were applied to fit probability density functions to time-series of yearly water availability and to estimate water availability for a number of return periods covering the current, 2030, and 2050 conditions; (3) water availability results were assembled with scenario estimates of water consumption and population density which resulted in a series of water scarcity estimates.

Economics of liquid hydrogen from water electrolysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, F. N.; Moore, W. I.; Walker, S. W.

1985-01-01

An economical model for preliminary analysis of LH2 cost from water electrolysis is presented. The model is based on data from vendors and open literature, and is suitable for computer analysis of different scenarios for 'directional' purposes. Cost data associated with a production rate of 10,886 kg/day are presented. With minimum modification, the model can also be used to predict LH2 cost from any electrolyzer once the electrolyzer's cost data are available.

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska.

PubMed

Jones, Benjamin M; Arp, Christopher D; Hinkel, Kenneth M; Beck, Richard A; Schmutz, Joel A; Winston, Barry

2009-06-01

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA.

Arctic lake physical processes and regimes with implications for winter water availability and management in the national petroleum reserve alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, C.D.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Beck, R.A.; Schmutz, J.A.; Winston, B.

2009-01-01

Lakes are dominant landforms in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) as well as important social and ecological resources. Of recent importance is the management of these freshwater ecosystems because lakes deeper than maximum ice thickness provide an important and often sole source of liquid water for aquatic biota, villages, and industry during winter. To better understand seasonal and annual hydrodynamics in the context of lake morphometry, we analyzed lakes in two adjacent areas where winter water use is expected to increase in the near future because of industrial expansion. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery acquired between 1985 and 2007 were analyzed and compared with climate data to understand interannual variability. Measured changes in lake area extent varied by 0.6% and were significantly correlated to total precipitation in the preceding 12 months (p < 0.05). Using this relation, the modeled lake area extent from 1985 to 2007 showed no long-term trends. In addition, high-resolution aerial photography, bathymetric surveys, water-level monitoring, and lake-ice thickness measurements and growth models were used to better understand seasonal hydrodynamics, surface area-to-volume relations, winter water availability, and more permanent changes related to geomorphic change. Together, these results describe how lakes vary seasonally and annually in two critical areas of the NPRA and provide simple models to help better predict variation in lake-water supply. Our findings suggest that both overestimation and underestimation of actual available winter water volume may occur regularly, and this understanding may help better inform management strategies as future resource use expands in the NPRA. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The sense and non-sense of plot-scale, catchment-scale, continental-scale and global-scale hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bronstert, Axel; Heistermann, Maik; Francke, Till

2017-04-01

Hydrological models aim at quantifying the hydrological cycle and its constituent processes for particular conditions, sites or periods in time. Such models have been developed for a large range of spatial and temporal scales. One must be aware that the question which is the appropriate scale to be applied depends on the overall question under study. Therefore, it is not advisable to give a general applicable guideline on what is "the best" scale for a model. This statement is even more relevant for coupled hydrological, ecological and atmospheric models. Although a general statement about the most appropriate modelling scale is not recommendable, it is worth to have a look on what are the advantages and the shortcomings of micro-, meso- and macro-scale approaches. Such an appraisal is of increasing importance, since increasingly (very) large / global scale approaches and models are under operation and therefore the question arises how far and for what purposes such methods may yield scientifically sound results. It is important to understand that in most hydrological (and ecological, atmospheric and other) studies process scale, measurement scale, and modelling scale differ from each other. In some cases, the differences between theses scales can be of different orders of magnitude (example: runoff formation, measurement and modelling). These differences are a major source of uncertainty in description and modelling of hydrological, ecological and atmospheric processes. Let us now summarize our viewpoint of the strengths (+) and weaknesses (-) of hydrological models of different scales: Micro scale (e.g. extent of a plot, field or hillslope): (+) enables process research, based on controlled experiments (e.g. infiltration; root water uptake; chemical matter transport); (+) data of state conditions (e.g. soil parameter, vegetation properties) and boundary fluxes (e.g. rainfall or evapotranspiration) are directly measurable and reproducible; (+) equations based on first principals, partly pde-type, are available for several processes (but not for all), because measurement and modelling scale are compatible (-) the spatial model domain are hardly representative for larger spatial entities, including regions for which water resources management decisions are to be taken; straightforward upsizing is also limited by data availability and computational requirements. Meso scale (e.g. extent of a small to large catchment or region): (+) the spatial extent of the model domain has approximately the same extent as the regions for which water resources management decisions are to be taken. I.e., such models enable water resources quantification at the scale of most water management decisions; (+) data of some state conditions (e.g. vegetation cover, topography, river network and cross sections) are available; (+) data of some boundary fluxes (in particular surface runoff / channel flow) are directly measurable with mostly sufficient certainty; (+) equations, partly based on simple water budgeting, partly variants of pde-type equations, are available for most hydrological processes. This enables the construction of meso-scale distributed models reflecting the spatial heterogeneity of regions/landscapes; (-) process scale, measurement scale, and modelling scale differ from each other for a number of processes, e.g., such as runoff generation; (-) the process formulation (usually derived from micro-scale studies) cannot directly be transferred to the modelling domain. Upscaling procedures for this purpose are not readily and generally available. Macro scale (e.g. extent of a continent up to global): (+) the spatial extent of the model may cover the whole Earth. This enables an attractive global display of model results; (+) model results might be technically interchangeable or at least comparable with results from other global models, such as global climate models; (-) process scale, measurement scale, and modelling scale differ heavily from each other for all hydrological and associated processes; (-) the model domain and its results are not representative regions for which water resources management decisions are to be taken. (-) both state condition and boundary flux data are hardly available for the whole model domain. Water management data and discharge data from remote regions are particular incomplete / unavailable for this scale. This undermines the model's verifiability; (-) since process formulation and resulting modelling reliability at this scale is very limited, such models can hardly show any explanatory skills or prognostic power; (-) since both the entire model domain and the spatial sub-units cover large areas, model results represent values averaged over at least the spatial sub-unit's extent. In many cases, the applied time scale implies a long-term averaging in time, too. We emphasize the importance to be aware of the above mentioned strengths and weaknesses of those scale-specific models. (Many of the) results of the current global model studies do not reflect such limitations. In particular, we consider the averaging over large model entities in space and/or time inadequate. Many hydrological processes are of a non-linear nature, including threshold-type behaviour. Such features cannot be reflected by such large scale entities. The model results therefore can be of little or no use for water resources decisions and/or even misleading for public debates or decision making. Some rather newly developed sustainability concepts, e.g. "Planetary Boundaries" in which humanity may "continue to develop and thrive for generations to come" are based on such global-scale approaches and models. However, many of the major problems regarding sustainability on Earth, e.g. water scarcity, do not exhibit on a global but on a regional scale. While on a global scale water might look like being available in sufficient quantity and quality, there are many regions where water problems already have very harmful or even devastating effects. Therefore, it is the challenge to derive models and observation programmes for regional scales. In case a global display is desired future efforts should be directed towards the development of a global picture based on a mosaic of regional sound assessments, rather than "zooming into" the results of large-scale simulations. Still, a key question remains to be discussed, i.e. for which purpose models at this (global) scale can be used.

Risk to Water Security on Small Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holding, S. T.; Allen, D. M.

2013-12-01

The majority of fresh water available on small islands is shallow groundwater that forms a freshwater lens. Freshwater lenses are generally limited in extent and as such are vulnerable to many stressors that impact water security. These include stressors related to climate change, such as sea level rise, as well as those related to human impacts, such as contamination. Traditionally, water security assessments have focussed on indicators that provide a snapshot of the current condition. However, recent work suggests that in order to effectively manage the water system, it is also important to consider uncertain future impacts to the system by evaluating how different stressors might impact water security. In this study, a framework for assessing risk to water security was developed and tested on Andros Island in The Bahamas. The assessment comprises two main components that characterise the water system: numerical modelling studies and a hazard survey. A baseline numerical model of the freshwater lens throughout Andros Island was developed to simulate the morphology of the freshwater lens and estimate the freshwater resources currently available. The model was prepared using SEAWAT, a density-dependent flow and solute transport code. Various stressors were simulated in the model to evaluate the response of the freshwater lens to predicted future shifts in climate patterns, sea level rise, and changes in water use. A hazard survey was also conducted on the island to collect information related to the storage of contaminants, sanitation infrastructure, waste disposal practices and groundwater abstraction rates. The results of the survey form a geo-spatial database of the location and associated hazards to the freshwater lens. The resulting risk framework provides a ranking of overall risk to water security based on information from the numerical modelling and hazard survey. The risk framework is implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provides a map of the risk to water security throughout Andros Island. It evaluates risk to water security for current and future scenarios and will enable water resource managers to effectively adapt to future impacts on water security.

How Much Water Trees Access and How It Determines Forest Response to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdanier, A. B.; Clark, J. S.

2015-12-01

Forests are transformed by drought as water availability drops below levels where trees of different sizes and species can maintain productivity and survive. Physiological studies have provided detailed understanding of how species differences affect drought vulnerability but they offer almost no insights about the amount of water different trees can access beyond general statements about rooting depth. While canopy architecture provides strong evidence for light availability aboveground, belowground moisture availability remains essentially unknown. For example, do larger trees always have greater access to soil moisture? In temperate mixed forests, the ability to access a large soil moisture pool could minimize damage during drought events and facilitate post-drought recovery, potentially at the expense of neighboring trees. We show that the pool of accessible soil moisture can be estimated for trees with data on whole-plant transpiration and that this data can be used to predict water availability for forest stands. We estimate soil water availability with a Bayesian state-space model based on a simple water balance, where cumulative depressions in water use below potential transpiration indicate soil resource depletion. We compare trees of different sizes and species, extend these findings to the entire stand, and connect them to our recent research showing that tree survival after drought depends on post-drought growth recovery and local moisture availability. These results can be used to predict competitive abilities for soil water, understand ecohydrological variation within stands, and identify trees that are at risk of damage from future drought events.

Global CLEWs model - A novel application of OSeMOSYS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avgerinopoulos, Georgios; Pereira Ramos, Eunice; Howells, Mark

2017-04-01

Over the past years, studies that analyse Nexus issues from a holistic point of view and not energy, land or water separately have been gaining momentum. This project aims at giving insights into global issues through the application and the analysis of a global scale OSeMOSYS model. The latter -which is based on a fully open and amendable code- has been used successfully in the latest years as it has been the producing fully accessible energy models suitable for capacity building and policy making suggestions. This study develops a CLEWs (climate, land, energy and water) model with the objective of interrogating global challenges (e.g. increasing food demand) and international trade features, with policy priorities on food security, resource efficiency, low-carbon energy and climate change mitigation, water availability and vulnerability to water stress and floods, water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It will for instance assess (i) the impact of water constraints on food security and human development (clean water for human use; industrial and energy water demands), as well as (ii) the impact of climate change on aggravating or relieving water problems.

What did the Romans ever do for us? Putting humans in global land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bierkens, M. F.; Wada, Y.; Dermody, B.; Van Beek, L. P.

2016-12-01

During the late 1980s and early 1990s, awareness of the shortage of global water resources lead to the first detailed global water resources assessments using regional statistics of water use and observations of meteorological and hydrological variables. Shortly thereafter, the first macroscale hydrological models (MHM) appeared. In these models, blue water (i.e., surface water and renewable groundwater) availability was calculated by accumulating runoff over a stream network and comparing it with population densities or with estimated water demand for agriculture, industry and households. In this talk we review the evolution of human impact modelling in global land models with a focus on global water resources, touching upon developments of the last 15 years: i.e. calculating human water scarcity; estimating groundwater depletion; adding dams and reservoirs; fully integrating water use (abstraction, application, consumption, return flow) in the hydrology; simulating the effects of land use change. We identify four major challenges that hamper the further development of integrated water resources modelling and thus prohibit realistic projections of the future terrestrial water cycle in the Anthropocene. These are: 1) including the ability to model infrastructural changes and measures; 2) projecting future water demand and water use and associated measures; 3) including virtual water trade; 4) including land use change and landscape change. While all these challenges will likely benefit from hydro-economics and the newly developing field of socio-hydrology, we also show that especially for challenges 3 and 4 lessons can be drawn from the (pre)historic past. To make this point we provide two case studies: one modelling the virtual water trade in the Roman Empire and one modelling human-landscape interaction in prehistoric Calabria (Italy).

Toward irrigation retrieval by combining multi-sensor remote sensing data into a land surface model over a semi-arid region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malbéteau, Y.; Lopez, O.; Houborg, R.; McCabe, M.

2017-12-01

Agriculture places considerable pressure on water resources, with the relationship between water availability and food production being critical for sustaining population growth. Monitoring water resources is particularly important in arid and semi-arid regions, where irrigation can represent up to 80% of the consumptive uses of water. In this context, it is necessary to optimize on-farm irrigation management by adjusting irrigation to crop water requirements throughout the growing season. However, in situ point measurements are not routinely available over extended areas and may not be representative at the field scale. Remote sensing approaches present as a cost-effective technique for mapping and monitoring broad areas. By taking advantage of multi-sensor remote sensing methodologies, such as those provided by MODIS, Landsat, Sentinel and Cubesats, we propose a new method to estimate irrigation input at pivot-scale. Here we explore the development of crop-water use estimates via these remote sensing data and integrate them into a land surface modeling framework, using a farm in Saudi Arabia as a demonstration of what can be achieved at larger scales.

Modeling the improvement of ultrafiltration membrane mass transfer when using biofiltration pretreatment in surface water applications.

PubMed

Netcher, Andrea C; Duranceau, Steven J

2016-03-01

In surface water treatment, ultrafiltration (UF) membranes are widely used because of their ability to supply safe drinking water. Although UF membranes produce high-quality water, their efficiency is limited by fouling. Improving UF filtrate productivity is economically desirable and has been attempted by incorporating sustainable biofiltration processes as pretreatment to UF with varying success. The availability of models that can be applied to describe the effectiveness of biofiltration on membrane mass transfer are lacking. In this work, UF water productivity was empirically modeled as a function of biofilter feed water quality using either a quadratic or Gaussian relationship. UF membrane mass transfer variability was found to be governed by the dimensionless mass ratio between the alkalinity (ALK) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). UF membrane productivity was optimized when the biofilter feed water ALK to DOC ratio fell between 10 and 14. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adopting adequate leaching requirement for practical response models of basil to salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babazadeh, Hossein; Tabrizi, Mahdi Sarai; Darvishi, Hossein Hassanpour

2016-07-01

Several mathematical models are being used for assessing plant response to salinity of the root zone. Objectives of this study included quantifying the yield salinity threshold value of basil plants to irrigation water salinity and investigating the possibilities of using irrigation water salinity instead of saturated extract salinity in the available mathematical models for estimating yield. To achieve the above objectives, an extensive greenhouse experiment was conducted with 13 irrigation water salinity levels, namely 1.175 dS m-1 (control treatment) and 1.8 to 10 dS m-1. The result indicated that, among these models, the modified discount model (one of the most famous root water uptake model which is based on statistics) produced more accurate results in simulating the basil yield reduction function using irrigation water salinities. Overall the statistical model of Steppuhn et al. on the modified discount model and the math-empirical model of van Genuchten and Hoffman provided the best results. In general, all of the statistical models produced very similar results and their results were better than math-empirical models. It was also concluded that if enough leaching was present, there was no significant difference between the soil salinity saturated extract models and the models using irrigation water salinity.

Methods to estimate irrigated reference crop evapotranspiration - a review.

PubMed

Kumar, R; Jat, M K; Shankar, V

2012-01-01

Efficient water management of crops requires accurate irrigation scheduling which, in turn, requires the accurate measurement of crop water requirement. Irrigation is applied to replenish depleted moisture for optimum plant growth. Reference evapotranspiration plays an important role for the determination of water requirements for crops and irrigation scheduling. Various models/approaches varying from empirical to physically base distributed are available for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration. Mathematical models are useful tools to estimate the evapotranspiration and water requirement of crops, which is essential information required to design or choose best water management practices. In this paper the most commonly used models/approaches, which are suitable for the estimation of daily water requirement for agricultural crops grown in different agro-climatic regions, are reviewed. Further, an effort has been made to compare the accuracy of various widely used methods under different climatic conditions.

The Role of Demand Response in Reducing Water-Related Power Plant Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macknick, J.; Brinkman, G.; Zhou, E.; O'Connell, M.; Newmark, R. L.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S. M.

2015-12-01

The electric sector depends on readily available water supplies for reliable and efficient operation. Elevated water temperatures or low water levels can trigger regulatory or plant-level decisions to curtail power generation, which can affect system cost and reliability. In the past decade, dozens of power plants in the U.S. have curtailed generation due to water temperatures and water shortages. Curtailments occur during the summer, when temperatures are highest and there is greatest demand for electricity. Climate change could alter the availability and temperature of water resources, exacerbating these issues. Constructing alternative cooling systems to address vulnerabilities can be capital intensive and can also affect power plant efficiencies. Demand response programs are being implemented by electric system planners and operators to reduce and shift electricity demands from peak usage periods to other times of the day. Demand response programs can also play a role in reducing water-related power sector vulnerabilities during summer months. Traditionally, production cost modeling and demand response analyses do not include water resources. In this effort, we integrate an electricity production cost modeling framework with water-related impacts on power plants in a test system to evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on power system costs and reliability. Specifically, we i) quantify the cost and reliability implications of incorporating water resources into production cost modeling, ii) evaluate the impacts of demand response measures on reducing system costs and vulnerabilities, and iii) consider sensitivity analyses with cooling systems to highlight a range of potential benefits of demand response measures. Impacts from climate change on power plant performance and water resources are discussed. Results provide key insights to policymakers and practitioners for reducing water-related power plant vulnerabilities via lower cost methods.

Pathways of soil moisture controls on boundary layer dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siqueira, M.; Katul, G.; Porporato, A.

2007-12-01

Soil moisture controls on precipitation are now receiving significant attention in climate systems because the memory of their variability is much slower than the memory of the fast atmospheric processes. We propose a new model that integrates soil water dynamics, plant hydraulics and stomatal responses to water availability to estimate root water uptake and available energy partitioning, as well as feedbacks to boundary layer dynamics (in terms of water vapor and heat input to the atmospheric system). Using a simplified homogenization technique, the model solves the intrinsically 3-D soil water movement equations by two 1-D coupled Richards' equations. The first resolves the radial water flow from bulk soil to soil-root interface to estimate root uptake (assuming the vertical gradients in moisture persist during the rapid lateral flow), and then it solves vertical water movement through the soil following the radial moisture adjustments. The coupling between these two equations is obtained by area averaging the soil moisture in the radial domain (i.e. homogenization) to calculate the vertical fluxes. For each vertical layer, the domain is discretized in axi-symmetrical grid with constant soil properties. This is deemed to be appropriate given the fact that the root uptake occurs on much shorter time scales closely following diurnal cycles, while the vertical water movement is more relevant to the inter-storm time scale. We show that this approach was able to explicitly simulate known features of root uptake such as diurnal hysteresis of canopy conductance, water redistribution by roots (hydraulic lift) and downward shift of root uptake during drying cycles. The model is then coupled with an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) growth model thereby permitting us to explore low-dimensional elements of the interaction between soil moisture and ABL states commensurate with the lifting condensation level.

Aedes aegypti Global Suitability Maps Using a Water Container Energy Balance Model for Dengue Risk Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhoff, D.

2015-12-01

Dengue infections are estimated to total nearly 400 million per year worldwide, with both the geographic range and the magnitude of infections having increased in the past 50 years. The primary dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is closely associated with humans. It lives exclusively in urban and semi-urban areas, preferentially bites humans, and spends its developmental stages in artificial water containers. Climate regulates the development of Ae. aegypti immature mosquitoes in artificial containers. Potential containers for Ae. aegypti immature development include, but are not limited to, small sundry items (e.g., bottles, cans, plastic containers), buckets, tires, barrels, tanks, and cisterns. Successful development of immature mosquitoes from eggs to larvae, pupae, and eventually adults is largely dependent on the availability of water and the thermal properties of the water in the containers. Recent work has shown that physics-based approaches toward modeling container water properties are promising for resolving the complexities of container water dynamics and the effects on immature mosquito development. An energy balance container model developed by the author, termed the Water Height And Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), solves for water temperature and height for user-specified containers with readily available weather data. Here we use WHATCH'EM with NASA Earth Science products used as input to construct global suitability maps based on established water temperature ranges for immature Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. A proxy for dengue risk is provided from habitat suitability, but also population estimates, as Ae. aegypti is closely associated with human activity. NASA gridded Global Population of the World data is used to mask out rural areas with low dengue risk. Suitability maps are illustrated for a variety of containers (size, material, color) and shading scenarios.

Modeling the future evolution of the virtual water trade network: A combination of network and gravity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sartori, Martina; Schiavo, Stefano; Fracasso, Andrea; Riccaboni, Massimo

2017-12-01

The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation -a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to "imported water stress" as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable.

Partial validation of the Dutch model for emission and transport of nutrients (STONE).

PubMed

Overbeek, G B; Tiktak, A; Beusen, A H; van Puijenbroek, P J

2001-11-17

The Netherlands has to cope with large losses of N and P to groundwater and surface water. Agriculture is the dominant source of these nutrients, particularly with reference to nutrient excretion due to intensive animal husbandry in combination with fertilizer use. The Dutch government has recently launched a stricter eutrophication abatement policy to comply with the EC nitrate directive. The Dutch consensus model for N and P emission to groundwater and surface water (STONE) has been developed to evaluate the environmental benefits of abatement plans. Due to the possibly severe socioeconomic consequences of eutrophication abatement plans, it is of utmost importance that the model is thoroughly validated. Because STONE is applied on a nationwide scale, the model validation has also been carried out on this scale. For this purpose the model outputs were compared with lumped results from monitoring networks in the upper groundwater and in surface waters. About 13,000 recent point source observations of nitrate in the upper groundwater were available, along with several hundreds of observations showing N and P in local surface water systems. Comparison of observations from the different spatial scales available showed the issue of scale to be important. Scale issues will be addressed in the next stages of the validation study.

Conceptual model of water resources in the Kabul Basin, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mack, Thomas J.; Akbari, M. Amin; Ashoor, M. Hanif; Chornack, Michael P.; Coplen, Tyler B.; Emerson, Douglas G.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Litke, David W.; Michel, Robert L.; Plummer, Niel; Rezai, M. Taher; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.; Verstraeten, Ingrid M.

2010-01-01

The United States (U.S.) Geological Survey has been working with the Afghanistan Geological Survey and the Afghanistan Ministry of Energy and Water on water-resources investigations in the Kabul Basin under an agreement supported by the United States Agency for International Development. This collaborative investigation compiled, to the extent possible in a war-stricken country, a varied hydrogeologic data set and developed limited data-collection networks to assist with the management of water resources in the Kabul Basin. This report presents the results of a multidisciplinary water-resources assessment conducted between 2005 and 2007 to address questions of future water availability for a growing population and of the potential effects of climate change. Most hydrologic and climatic data-collection activities in Afghanistan were interrupted in the early 1980s as a consequence of war and civil strife and did not resume until 2003 or later. Because of the gap of more than 20 years in the record of hydrologic and climatic observations, this investigation has made considerable use of remotely sensed data and, where available, historical records to investigate the water resources of the Kabul Basin. Specifically, this investigation integrated recently acquired remotely sensed data and satellite imagery, including glacier and climatic data; recent climate-change analyses; recent geologic investigations; analysis of streamflow data; groundwater-level analysis; surface-water- and groundwater-quality data, including data on chemical and isotopic environmental tracers; and estimates of public-supply and agricultural water uses. The data and analyses were integrated by using a simplified groundwater-flow model to test the conceptual model of the hydrologic system and to assess current (2007) and future (2057) water availability. Recharge in the basin is spatially and temporally variable and generally occurs near streams and irrigated areas in the late winter and early spring. In irrigated areas near uplands or major rivers, the annual recharge rate may be about 1.2 ? 10-3 meters per year; however, in areas at lower altitude with little irrigation, the recharge rate may average about 0.7 ? 10-3 meters per year. With increasing population, the water needs of the Kabul Basin are estimated to increase from 112,000 cubic meters per day to about 725,000 cubic meters per day by the year 2057. In some areas of the basin, particularly in the north along the western mountain front and near major rivers, water resources are generally adequate for current needs. In other areas of the basin, such as in the east and away from major rivers, the available water resources may not meet future needs. On the basis of the model simulations, increasing withdrawals are likely to result in declining water levels that may cause more than 50 percent of shallow (typically less than 50 meters deep) supply wells to become dry or inoperative. The water quality in the shallow (less than 100 meters thick), unconsolidated primary aquifer has deteriorated in urban areas because of poor sanitation. Concerns about water availability may be compounded by poor well-construction practices and lack of planning. Future water resources of the Kabul Basin will likely be reduced as a result of increasing air temperatures associated with global climate change. It is estimated that at least 60 percent of shallow groundwater-supply wells would be affected and may become dry or inoperative as a result of climate change. These effects of climate change would likely be greatest in the agricultural areas adjacent to the Paghman Mountains where a majority of springs, karezes, and wells would be affected. The water available in the shallow primary aquifer of the basin may meet future water needs in the northern areas of the Kabul Basin near the Panjsher River. Conceptual groundwater-flow simulations indicate that the basin likely has groundwater reserves in unused unconsolidate

Using a System Model for Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Souza, Leonardo; de Miranda, Eu; Sánchez-Román, Rodrigo; Orellana-González, Alba

2014-05-01

When using Systems Thinking variables involved in any process have a dynamic behavior, according to nonstatic relationships with the environment. In this paper it is presented a system dynamics model developed to be used as an irrigation management tool. The model involves several parameters related to irrigation such as: soil characteristics, climate data and culture's physiological parameters. The water availability for plants in the soil is defined as a stock in the model, and this soil water content will define the right moment to irrigate and the water depth required to be applied. The crop water consumption will reduce soil water content; it is defined by the potential evapotranspiration (ET) that acts as an outflow from the stock (soil water content). ET can be estimated by three methods: a) FAO Penman-Monteith (ETPM), b) Hargreaves-Samani (ETHS) method, based on air temperature data and c) Class A pan (ETTCA) method. To validate the model were used data from the States of Ceará and Minas Gerais, Brazil, and the culture was bean. Keyword: System Dynamics, soil moisture content, agricultural water balance, irrigation scheduling.

Numerical Modeling of Gas and Water Flow in Shale Gas Formations with a Focus on the Fate of Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid.

PubMed

Edwards, Ryan W J; Doster, Florian; Celia, Michael A; Bandilla, Karl W

2017-12-05

Hydraulic fracturing in shale gas formations involves the injection of large volumes of aqueous fluid deep underground. Only a small proportion of the injected water volume is typically recovered, raising concerns that the remaining water may migrate upward and potentially contaminate groundwater aquifers. We implement a numerical model of two-phase water and gas flow in a shale gas formation to test the hypothesis that the remaining water is imbibed into the shale rock by capillary forces and retained there indefinitely. The model includes the essential physics of the system and uses the simplest justifiable geometrical structure. We apply the model to simulate wells from a specific well pad in the Horn River Basin, British Columbia, where there is sufficient available data to build and test the model. Our simulations match the water and gas production data from the wells remarkably closely and show that all the injected water can be accounted for within the shale system, with most imbibed into the shale rock matrix and retained there for the long term.

An operational ensemble prediction system for catchment rainfall over eastern Africa spanning multiple temporal and spatial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddle, E. E.; Hopson, T. M.; Gebremichael, M.; Boehnert, J.; Broman, D.; Sampson, K. M.; Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Collins, D. C.; Harshadeep, N. R.; Burke, E.; Havens, K.

2017-12-01

While it is not yet certain how precipitation patterns will change over Africa in the future, it is clear that effectively managing the available water resources is going to be crucial in order to mitigate the effects of water shortages and floods that are likely to occur in a changing climate. One component of effective water management is the availability of state-of-the-art and easy to use rainfall forecasts across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We present a web-based system for displaying and disseminating ensemble forecast and observed precipitation data over central and eastern Africa. The system provides multi-model rainfall forecasts integrated to relevant hydrological catchments for timescales ranging from one day to three months. A zoom-in features is available to access high resolution forecasts for small-scale catchments. Time series plots and data downloads with forecasts, recent rainfall observations and climatological data are available by clicking on individual catchments. The forecasts are calibrated using a quantile regression technique and an optimal multi-model forecast is provided at each timescale. The forecast skill at the various spatial and temporal scales will discussed, as will current applications of this tool for managing water resources in Sudan and optimizing hydropower operations in Ethiopia and Tanzania.

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed VWRS model will account for the blue water component of the system (water taken from the rivers and reservoirs) as well as the green water (soil water used by agriculture), and track water-dependent products and services (energy, mining, crops, and industrial products). The system dynamics approach is used as a simulation environment for constructing the VWRS model due to its ability to accommodate hydrological and non-hydrological variables in one modeling platform. A set of scenarios representing various levels of water availability, combined with a set of various priorities of water uses, will be considered and tested. The scenarios will be evaluated with regard to the overall value of water use. The findings will be used to develop water value-based allocation priorities and reservoir operating rules. This novel modeling tool and concept promotes and allows for a paradigm shift from studying traditional water budgets to quantifying virtual and value-based water budgets; i.e., balance of water and water-dependent commodities and services. In this paper, the first and tentative version of the VWRS model is presented and applied to the Saskatchewan portion of the SSRB. Various scenarios of changes of the inflows from Alberta to Saskatchewan will be considered and tested to validate the VWRS model.

Applications of the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) Model and Highlights of Current Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hain, C.; Mecikalski, J. R.; Schultz, L. A.

2009-12-01

The Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model was developed as an auxiliary means for estimating surface fluxes over large regions primarily using remote-sensing data. The model is unique in that no information regarding antecedent precipitation or moisture storage capacity is required - the surface moisture status is deduced from a radiometric temperature change signal. ALEXI uses the available water fraction (fAW) as a proxy for soil moisture conditions. Combining fAW with ALEXI’s ability to provide valuable information about the partitioning of the surface energy budget, which can dictated largely by soil moisture conditions, accommodates the retrieval of an average fAW from the surface to the rooting depth of the active vegetation. Using this approach has many advantages over traditional energy flux and soil moisture measurements (towers with limited range and large monetary/personnel costs) or approximation methods (parametrization of the relationship between available water and soil moisture) in that data is available both spatially and temporal over a large, non-homogeneous, sometimes densely vegetated area. Being satellite based, the model can be run anywhere thermal infrared satellite information is available. The current ALEXI climatology dates back to March 2000 and covers the continental U.S. Examples of projects underway using the ALEXI soil moisture retrieval tools include the Southern Florida Water Management Project; NASA’s Project Nile, which proposes to acquire hydrological information for the water management in the Nile River basin; and a USDA pro ject to expand the ALEXI framework to include Europe and parts of northern Africa using data from the European geostationary satellites, specifically the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Series.

Estimating the susceptibility of surface water in Texas to nonpoint-source contamination by use of logistic regression modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William A.; Ulery, Randy L.; Winterstein, Thomas; Welborn, Toby

2003-01-01

In the State of Texas, surface water (streams, canals, and reservoirs) and ground water are used as sources of public water supply. Surface-water sources of public water supply are susceptible to contamination from point and nonpoint sources. To help protect sources of drinking water and to aid water managers in designing protective yet cost-effective and risk-mitigated monitoring strategies, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey developed procedures to assess the susceptibility of public water-supply source waters in Texas to the occurrence of 227 contaminants. One component of the assessments is the determination of susceptibility of surface-water sources to nonpoint-source contamination. To accomplish this, water-quality data at 323 monitoring sites were matched with geographic information system-derived watershed- characteristic data for the watersheds upstream from the sites. Logistic regression models then were developed to estimate the probability that a particular contaminant will exceed a threshold concentration specified by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Logistic regression models were developed for 63 of the 227 contaminants. Of the remaining contaminants, 106 were not modeled because monitoring data were available at less than 10 percent of the monitoring sites; 29 were not modeled because there were less than 15 percent detections of the contaminant in the monitoring data; 27 were not modeled because of the lack of any monitoring data; and 2 were not modeled because threshold values were not specified.

Photosynthetic responses of C3 and C4 species to seasonal water variability and competition.

PubMed

Niu, Shuli; Yuan, Zhiyou; Zhang, Yanfang; Liu, Weixing; Zhang, Lei; Huang, Jianhui; Wan, Shiqiang

2005-11-01

This study examined the impacts of seasonal water variability and interspecific competition on the photosynthetic characteristics of a C3 (Leymus chinensis) and a C4 (Chloris virgata) grass species. Plants received the same amount of water but in three seasonal patterns, i.e. the one-peak model (more water in the summer than in the spring and autumn), the two-peak model (more water in the spring and autumn than in the summer), and the average model (water evenly distributed over the growing season). The effects of water variability on the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were dependent on season. There were significant differences in the photosynthetic characteristics of the C4 species in the summer and the C3 species in the autumn among the three water treatments. Interspecific competition exerted negative impacts on the C3 species in August and September but had no effects on the C4 species in any of the four measuring dates. The relative competitive capability of the two species was not altered by water availability. The assimilation rate, the maximum quantum yield of net CO2 assimilation, and the maximum rate of carboxylation of the C3 species were 13-56%, 5-11%, and 11-48% greater, respectively, in a monoculture than in a mixture in August and September. The results demonstrated that the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were affected by water availability, but the effects varied considerably with season.

Ground-Water Availability from the Hawi Aquifer in the Kohala Area, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Underwood, Mark R.; Meyer, William; Souza, William R.

1995-01-01

A ground-water study consisting of test-well drilling, aquifer tests, and numerical simulation was done to investigate ground-water availability in the basal part of the Hawi aquifer between the western drainage divide of Pololu Valley and Upolu Point in Kohala, Hawaii. The test-well drilling provided information on geology, water levels, water quality, vertical extent of the freshwater, and the thickness of the freshwater-saltwater transition zone in that aquifer. A total of 12 test wells were drilled at eight locations. Aquifer tests were done at five locations to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer. Using information on the distribution of recharge, vertical extent of freshwater, hydraulic conductivity, and geometry of the basal aquifer, a numerical model was used to simulate the movement of water into, through, and out of the basal aquifer, and the effect of additional pumping on the water levels in the aquifer. Results of the modeling indicate that ground-water withdrawal of 20 million gallons per day above the existing withdrawal of 0.6 million gallons per day from the basal aquifer is hydrologically feasible, but that spacing, depth, and pumping rates of individual wells are important. If pumping is concentrated, the likelihood of saltwater intrusion is increased. The additional withdrawal of 20 million gallons per day would result in a reduction of ground-water discharge to the ocean by an amount equal to pumpage. Although model-calculated declines in water-level outside the area of pumping are small, pumping could cause some reduction of streamflow near the mouth of Pololu Stream.

Temperature Dynamics in Very Shallow Water Bodies: the Role of Heat Fluxes at the Soil-Water Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pivato, M.; Carniello, L.; Silvestri, S.; Marani, M.; Gardner, J.

2016-12-01

Water temperature represents one of the crucial factors driving the ecological processes in water bodies. Many contributions are available in the literature that describe temperature dynamics in deep basins as lakes or seas. Those basins are typically stratified which makes important to represent the vertical profile of the water temperature. Dealing with shallow water bodies, such as rivers, shallow lakes and lagoons, simplifies the problem because the water temperature can be assumed uniform in the water column. Conversely, the heat exchange at the soil-water interface assumes an important role in the water temperature dynamics. Notwithstanding, very few studies and data about this process are available in the literature. In order to provide more insight on the soil contribution to water temperature dynamics, we performed ad hoc field measurements in the Venice lagoon,. We selected a location on a tidal flat in the northern part of the lagoon, close to the Sant'Erasmo Island, where we measured the temperature within the water column and the first 1.5 m of the soil. Data collection started in July 2015 and is still ongoing. We used the data to characterize the heat flux at the water-soil interface in different periods of the year and to develop a "point" model for describing the evolution of the temperature in the water column. The insight on the process provided by the data and by the point model: i) enabled us to determine the soil thermal properties (diffusivity and heat capacity); ii) confirms the uniform profile of the water temperature in the water column; iii) demonstrates that the heat flux at the soil-water interface is comparable with other fluxes at the air-water interface and iv) highlights the important role exerted by advective water fluxes. The latter will be accounted for developing a module for describing the dynamic of the temperature to be coupled with an already existing 2D hydrodynamic model of the Venice lagoon.

Going beyond the unitary curve: incorporating richer cognition into agent-based water resources models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kock, B. E.

2008-12-01

The increased availability and understanding of agent-based modeling technology and techniques provides a unique opportunity for water resources modelers, allowing them to go beyond traditional behavioral approaches from neoclassical economics, and add rich cognition to social-hydrological models. Agent-based models provide for an individual focus, and the easier and more realistic incorporation of learning, memory and other mechanisms for increased cognitive sophistication. We are in an age of global change impacting complex water resources systems, and social responses are increasingly recognized as fundamentally adaptive and emergent. In consideration of this, water resources models and modelers need to better address social dynamics in a manner beyond the capabilities of neoclassical economics theory and practice. However, going beyond the unitary curve requires unique levels of engagement with stakeholders, both to elicit the richer knowledge necessary for structuring and parameterizing agent-based models, but also to make sure such models are appropriately used. With the aim of encouraging epistemological and methodological convergence in the agent-based modeling of water resources, we have developed a water resources-specific cognitive model and an associated collaborative modeling process. Our cognitive model emphasizes efficiency in architecture and operation, and capacity to adapt to different application contexts. We describe a current application of this cognitive model and modeling process in the Arkansas Basin of Colorado. In particular, we highlight the potential benefits of, and challenges to, using more sophisticated cognitive models in agent-based water resources models.

Application of a MODIS Soil Moisture-Evapotranspiration (MOD-SMET) Model to Evaluate Landscape and Hydrologic Recovery after the High Park Fire in Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blount, W. K.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K.; Knipper, K. R.

2017-12-01

Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) is critical for the management of water resources, especially in water-stressed regions. ET accounts for approximately 60% of terrestrial precipitation globally and approaches 100% of annual rainfall in arid ecosystems, where transpiration becomes the dominant term. ET is difficult to measure due to its spatiotemporal variation, which requires adequate data coverage. While new remote sensing-based ET products are available at a 1 km spatial resolution, including the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop) and the MODIS Global Evapotranspiration Project (MOD16), these products are available at monthly and 8-day temporal resolutions, respectively. To better understand the changing dynamics of hydrologic fluxes and the partitioning of water after land cover disturbances and to identify statically significant trends, more frequent observations are necessary. Utilizing the recently developed MODIS Soil Moisture-Evapotranspiration (MOD-SMET) model, daily temporal resolution is achieved. This presentation outlines the methodology of the MOD-SMET model and compares SSEBop, MOD16, and MOD-SMET ET estimates over the High Park Fire burn scar in Colorado, USA. MOD-SMET estimates are used to identify changes in fluxes and partitioning of the water cycle after a wildfire and during recovery in the High Park Fire near Fort Collins, Colorado. Initial results indicate greenness and ET from all three models decrease post-fire, with higher statistical confidence in high burn areas and spatial patterns that closely align with burn severity. MOD-SMET improves the ability to resolve statistically significant changes in ET following wildfires and better understand changes in the post-fire water budget. Utilizing this knowledge, water resource managers can better plan for, and mitigate, the short- and long-term impacts of wildfire on regional water supplies.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

Plant water use affects competition for nitrogen: why drought favors invasive species in California.

PubMed

Everard, Katherine; Seabloom, Eric W; Harpole, W Stanley; de Mazancourt, Claire

2010-01-01

Abstract: Classic resource competition theory typically treats resource supply rates as independent; however, nutrient supplies can be affected by plants indirectly, with important consequences for model predictions. We demonstrate this general phenomenon by using a model in which competition for nitrogen is mediated by soil moisture, with competitive outcomes including coexistence and multiple stable states as well as competitive exclusion. In the model, soil moisture regulates nitrogen availability through soil moisture dependence of microbial processes, leaching, and plant uptake. By affecting water availability, plants also indirectly affect nitrogen availability and may therefore alter the competitive outcome. Exotic annual species from the Mediterranean have displaced much of the native perennial grasses in California. Nitrogen and water have been shown to be potentially limiting in this system. We parameterize the model for a Californian grassland and show that soil moisture-mediated competition for nitrogen can explain the annual species' dominance in drier areas, with coexistence expected in wetter regions. These results are concordant with larger biogeographic patterns of grassland invasion in the Pacific states of the United States, in which annual grasses have invaded most of the hot, dry grasslands in California but perennial grasses dominate the moister prairies of northern California, Oregon, and Washington.

Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

2013-09-01

Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031-2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12-15%), Bulgaria (21-23%) and Romania (31-32% for 2031-2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects.

Water use, ground-water recharge and availability, and quality of water in the Greenwich area, Fairfield County, Connecticut and Westchester County, New York, 2000-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullaney, John R.

2004-01-01

Ground-water budgets were developed for 32 small basin-based zones in the Greenwich area of southwestern Connecticut, where crystalline-bedrock aquifers supply private wells, to determine the status of residential ground-water consumption relative to rates of ground-water recharge and discharge. Estimated residential ground-water withdrawals for small basins (averaging 1.7 square miles (mi2)) ranged from 0 to 0.16 million gallons per day per square mile (Mgal/d/mi2). To develop these budgets, residential ground-water withdrawals were estimated using multiple-linear regression models that relate water use from public water supply to data on residential property characteristics. Average daily water use of households with public water supply ranged from 219 to 1,082 gallons per day (gal/d). A steady-state finite-difference ground-water- flow model was developed to track water budgets, and to estimate optimal values for hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (0.05 feet per day) and recharge to the overlying till deposits (6.9 inches) using nonlinear regression. Estimated recharge rates to the small basins ranged from 3.6 to 7.5 inches per year (in/yr) and relate to the percentage of the basin underlain by coarse- grained glacial stratified deposits. Recharge was not applied to impervious areas to account for the effects of urbanization. Net residential ground-water consumption was estimated as ground-water withdrawals increased during the growing season, and ranged from 0 to 0.9 in/yr. Long-term average stream base flows simulated by the ground-water-flow model were compared to calculated values of average base flow and low flow to determine if base flow was substantially reduced in any of the basins studied. Three of the 32 basins studied had simulated base flows less than 3 in/yr, as a result of either ground-water withdrawals or reduced recharge due to urbanization. A water-availability criteria of the difference between the 30-day 2-year low flow and the recharge rate for each basin was explored as a method to rate the status of water consumption in each basin. Water consumption ranged from 0 to 14.3 percent of available water based on this criteria for the 32 basins studied. Base-flow water quality was related to the amount of urbanized area in each basin sampled. Concentrations of total nitrogen and phosphorus, chloride, indicator bacteria, and the number of pesticide detections increased with basin urbanization, which ranged from 18 to 63 percent of basin area.

Improving Water Management Decision Support Tools Using NASA Satellite and Modeling Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, D. L.; Arsenault, K.; Nigro, J.; Pinheiro, A.; Engman, E. T.; Triggs, J.; Cosgrove, B.; Alonge, C.; Boyle, D.; Allen, R.; Townsend, P.; Ni-Meister, W.

2006-05-01

One of twelve Applications of National priority within NASA's Applied Science Program, the Water Management Program Element addresses concerns and decision making related to water availability, water forecast and water quality. The goal of the Water Management Program Element is to encourage water management organizations to use NASA Earth science data, models products, technology and other capabilities in their decision support tools for problem solving. The Water Management Program Element partners with Federal agencies, academia, private firms, and may include international organizations. This paper further describes the Water Management Program with the objective of informing the applications community of the potential opportunities for using NASA science products for problem solving. We will illustrate some ongoing and application Water Management projects evaluating and benchmarking NASA data with partnering federal agencies and their decision support tools: 1) Environmental Protection Agency for water quality; 2) Bureau of Reclamation for water supply, demand and forecast; and 3) NOAA National Weather Service for improved weather prediction. Examples of the types of NASA contributions to the these agency decision support tools include: 1) satellite observations within models assist to estimate water storage, i.e., snow water equivalent, soil moisture, aquifer volumes, or reservoir storages; 2) model derived products, i.e., evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff, ground water recharge, and other 4-dimensional data assimilation products; 3) improve water quality, assessments by using improved inputs from NASA models (precipitation, evaporation) and satellite observations (e.g., temperature, turbidity, land cover) to nonpoint source models; and 4) water (i.e., precipitation) and temperature predictions from days to decades over local, regional and global scales.

Integrating Growth Stage Deficit Irrigation into a Process Based Crop Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez, Jose R.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Elliott, Joshua; Ruane, Alex C.; Porter, Cheryl; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

2017-01-01

Current rates of agricultural water use are unsustainable in many regions, creating an urgent need to identify improved irrigation strategies for water limited areas. Crop models can be used to quantify plant water requirements, predict the impact of water shortages on yield, and calculate water productivity (WP) to link water availability and crop yields for economic analyses. Many simulations of crop growth and development, especially in regional and global assessments, rely on automatic irrigation algorithms to estimate irrigation dates and amounts. However, these algorithms are not well suited for water limited regions because they have simplistic irrigation rules, such as a single soil-moisture based threshold, and assume unlimited water. To address this constraint, a new modeling framework to simulate agricultural production in water limited areas was developed. The framework consists of a new automatic irrigation algorithm for the simulation of growth stage based deficit irrigation under limited seasonal water availability; and optimization of growth stage specific parameters. The new automatic irrigation algorithm was used to simulate maize and soybean in Gainesville, Florida, and first used to evaluate the sensitivity of maize and soybean simulations to irrigation at different growth stages and then to test the hypothesis that water productivity calculated using simplistic irrigation rules underestimates WP. In the first experiment, the effect of irrigating at specific growth stages on yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) in maize and soybean was evaluated. In the reproductive stages, IWUE tended to be higher than in the vegetative stages (e.g. IWUE was 18% higher than the well watered treatment when irrigating only during R3 in soybean), and when rainfall events were less frequent. In the second experiment, water productivity (WP) was significantly greater with optimized irrigation schedules compared to non-optimized irrigation schedules in water restricted scenarios. For example, the mean WP across 38 years of maize production was 1.1 kg/cu m for non-optimized irrigation schedules with 50 mm of seasonal available water and 2.1 kg/cu m optimized ion schedules, a 91% improvement in WP with optimized irrigation schedules. The framework described in this work could be used to estimate WP for regional to global assessments, as well as derive location specific irrigation guidance.

A Practical Review of Integrated Urban Water Models: Applications as Decision Support Tools and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosleh, L.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The integrated urban water management has become a necessity due to the high rate of urbanization, water scarcity, and climate variability. Climate and demographic changes, shifting the social attitude toward the water usage, and insufficiencies in system resilience increase the pressure on the water resources. Alongside with the water management, modeling urban water systems have progressed from traditional view to comprise alternatives such as decentralized water and wastewater systems, fit-for-purpose practice, graywater/rainwater reuse, and green infrastructure. While there are review papers available focusing on the technical part of the models, they seem to be more beneficial for model developers. Some of the models analyze a number of scenarios considering factors such as climate change and demography and their future impacts. However, others only focus on quality and quantity of water in a supply/demand approach. For example, optimizing the size of water or waste water store, characterizing the supply and quantity of urban stormwater and waste water, and link source of water to demand. A detailed and practical comparison of such models has become a necessity for the practitioner and policy makers. This research compares more than 7 most commonly used integrated urban water cycle models and critically reviews their capabilities, input requirements, output and their applications. The output of such detailed comparison will help the policy makers for the decision process in the built environment to compare and choose the best models that meet their goals. The results of this research show that we need a transition from developing/using integrated water cycle models to integrated system models which incorporate urban water infrastructures and ecological and economic factors. Such models can help decision makers to reflect other important criteria but with the focus on urban water management. The research also showed that there is a need in exploring sustainability, comprising water energy-nexus, and considering ecosystem services in the models. In addition, socio-economic factors such as public acceptance can be added to such models. Finally, the reliability and resilience of urban water management scenarios should be addressed under different uncertainties such as climate variability.

Interactions between drought and soil biogeochemistry: scaling from molecules to meters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimel, J.; Schaeffer, S. M.

2011-12-01

Water is the perhaps the single most critical resource for life, yet most terrestrial ecosystems experience regular drought. Reduced water potential causes physiological stress; reduced diffusion limits resource availability when microbes may need resources to acclimate. Most biogeochemical models, however, have assumed that soil processes either slow down or stop during drought. But organisms survive and enzymes remain viable. In California, as soils stay dry through the long summer drought, microbial biomass actually increases and pools of extractable organic C increase, probably because extracellular enzymes continue to break down plant detritus (notably roots). Yet 14C suggests that in deeper soils, the pulse of C released on rewetting comes from pools with turnover times of as long as 800 years. What are the mechanisms that regulate these complex dynamics? They appear to involve differential moisture sensitivity for the activity of extracellular enzymes, substrate diffusion, and microbial metabolism. Rewetting not only redistributes materials made available during the drought, but it also disrupts aggregates and may make previously-protected substrates available as well. We have used several methods to simply capture these linkages between water and carbon in models that are applicable at the ecosystem scale and that could improve our ability to model biogeochemical cycles in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. One is a simple empirical modification to the DAYCENT model while the other is a mechanistic model that incorporates microbial dry-season processes.

Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation and Hydropower Potential: A Case of Upper Blue Nile Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdella, E. J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

2017-12-01

Due to the growing pressure in water resource and climate change there is great uncertainty in the availability of water for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin (longitude 34oE and 39oE and latitude 7oN and 12oN). This study quantitatively assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the basin which intern affect water availability for different use including hydropower and irrigation. Ensemble of four bias corrected regional climate models (RCM) of CORDEX Africa domain and two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to determine climate projections for future (2021-2050) period. The outputs from the climate models used to drive the calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to simulate future runoff. The simulated discharge were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water allocation model to determine the implication in hydropower and irrigation potential of the basin. The WEAP model was setup to simulate three scenarios which includes Current, Medium-term (by 2025) and Long-term (by 2050) Development scenario. The projected mean annual temperature of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 - 2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC. Projected mean annual precipitation varies across the basin in the range of - 3% to 7%, much of the expected increase is in the highland region of the basin. The water use simulation indicate that the current annual average irrigation water demand in the basin is 1.29Bm3y-1 with 100% coverage. By 2025 and 2050, with the development of new schemes and changing climate, water demand for irrigation is estimated to increase by 2.5 Bm3y-1 and 3.4 Bm3y-1 with 99 % and 96% coverage respectively. Simulation for domestic water demand coverage for all scenarios shows that there will be 100% coverage for the two major cities in the basin. The hydropower generation simulation indicate that 98% of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planed dams are constructed. The results in this study demonstrate the general idea of future water availability for different purpose in the basin, but uncertainties still exist in the projected future climate and simulated runoff. Optimal operation of existing and proposed reservoirs is also crucial in the context of climate change.

Optimizing Irrigation Water Allocation under Multiple Sources of Uncertainty in an Arid River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Tang, D.; Gao, H.; Ding, Y.

2015-12-01

Population growth and climate change add additional pressures affecting water resources management strategies for meeting demands from different economic sectors. It is especially challenging in arid regions where fresh water is limited. For instance, in the Tailanhe River Basin (Xinjiang, China), a compromise must be made between water suppliers and users during drought years. This study presents a multi-objective irrigation water allocation model to cope with water scarcity in arid river basins. To deal with the uncertainties from multiple sources in the water allocation system (e.g., variations of available water amount, crop yield, crop prices, and water price), the model employs a interval linear programming approach. The multi-objective optimization model developed from this study is characterized by integrating eco-system service theory into water-saving measures. For evaluation purposes, the model is used to construct an optimal allocation system for irrigation areas fed by the Tailan River (Xinjiang Province, China). The objective functions to be optimized are formulated based on these irrigation areas' economic, social, and ecological benefits. The optimal irrigation water allocation plans are made under different hydroclimate conditions (wet year, normal year, and dry year), with multiple sources of uncertainty represented. The modeling tool and results are valuable for advising decision making by the local water authority—and the agricultural community—especially on measures for coping with water scarcity (by incorporating uncertain factors associated with crop production planning).

The benefit of using additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data on water allocation decisions in irrigation districts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2017-04-01

Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.

A system dynamics model of human-water interaction in anthropogenic droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blair, Peter; Buytaert, Wouter

2016-04-01

Modelling is set to be a key part of socio-hydrology's quest to understand the dynamics and long-term consequences of human-water interactions. As a subject in its infancy, still learning the questions to ask, conceptual models are of particular use in trying to understand the general nature of human-water systems. The conceptual model of Di Baldassarre et al. (2013), which investigates human-flood interactions, has been widely discussed, prompting great steps forward in understanding and coverage of socio-hydrology. The development of further conceptual models could generate further discussion and understanding. Flooding is one archetypal example of a system of human-water interaction; another is the case of water stress and drought. There has been a call to recognise and understand anthropogenic drought (Aghakouchak et al. 2015), and so this study investigates the nature of the socio-hydrological dynamics involved in these situations. Here we present a system dynamics model to simulate human-water interactions in the context of water-stressed areas, where drought is induced via a combination of lower than usual water availability and relatively high water use. It is designed based on an analysis of several case-studies where recent droughts have occurred, or where the prospect of drought looms. The locations investigated are Spain, Southeast Brazil, Northeast China and California. The numerical system dynamics model is based on causal loop, and stocks and flows diagrams, which are in turn developed from the qualitative analysis of the different cases studied. The study uses a comparative approach, which has the advantage of eliciting general system characteristics from the similarities between cases, while using the differences to determine the important factors which lead to different system behaviours. References: Aghakouchak, A., Feldman, D., Hoerling, M., Huxman, T., Lund, J., 2015. Recognize anthropogenic drought. Nature, 524, pp.409-411. Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., Blöschl, G., 2013. Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(8), pp.3295-3303. Available at: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/17/3295/2013/ [Accessed August 8, 2014].

Use of a three-dimensional model for the analysis of the ground-water flow system in Parker Valley, Arizona and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucci, Patrick

1982-01-01

A three-dimensional, finite-difference model was used to simulate ground-water flow conditions in Parker Valley. The study evaluated present knowledge and concepts of the ground-water system and the ability of the model to represent the system. Modeling assumptions and generalized physical parameters that were used may have transfer value in the construction and calibration of models of other basins along the lower Colorado River. The aquifer was simulated in two layers to represent the three-dimensional system. Ground-water conditions were simulated for 1940-41, the mid-1960's, and 1980. Overall model results generally compared favorably with available field information. The model results showed that for 1940-41 the Colorado River was a losing stream through out Parker Valley. Infiltration of surface water from the river was the major source of recharge. The dominant mechanism of discharge was evapotranspiration by phreatophytes. Agricultural development between 1941 and the mid-1960 's resulted in significant changes to the ground-water system. Model results for conditions in the mid-1960 's showed that the Colorado River had become a gaining stream in the northern part of the valley as a result of higher water levels. The rise in water levels was caused by infiltration of applied irrigation water. Diminished water-level gradients from the river in the rest of the valley reduced the amount of infiltration of surface water from the river. Models results for conditions in 1980 showed that ground-water level rises of several feet caused further reduction in the amount of surface-water infiltration from the river. (USGS)

Storm Water Infiltration and Focused Groundwater Recharge in a Rain Garden: Finite Volume Model and Numerical Simulations for Different Configurations and Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aravena, J.; Dussaillant, A. R.

2006-12-01

Source control is the fundamental principle behind sustainable management of stormwater. Rain gardens are an infiltration practice that provides volume and water quality control, recharge, and multiple landscape, ecological and economic potential benefits. The fulfillment of these objectives requires understanding their behavior during events as well as long term, and tools for their design. We have developed a model based on Richards equation coupled to a surface water balance, solved with a 2D finite volume Fortran code which allows alternating upper boundary conditions, including ponding, which is not present in available 2D models. Also, it can simulate non homogeneous water input, heterogeneous soil (layered or more complex geometries), and surface irregularities -e.g. terracing-, so as to estimate infiltration and recharge. The algorithm is conservative; being an advantage compared to available finite difference and finite element methods. We will present performance comparisons to known models, to experimental data from a bioretention cell, which receives roof water to its surface depression planted with native species in an organic-rich root zone soil layer (underlain by a high conductivity lower layer that, while providing inter-event storage, percolates water readily), as well as long term simulations for different rain garden configurations. Recharge predictions for different climates show significant increases from natural recharge, and that the optimal area ratio (raingarden vs. contributing impervious area) reduces from 20% (humid) to 5% (dry).

Developing a methodology for real-time trading of water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits in rivers.

PubMed

Soltani, Maryam; Kerachian, Reza

2018-04-15

In this paper, a new methodology is proposed for the real-time trading of water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits in agricultural areas along the rivers. Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) is chosen as an indicator of river water quality and the TDS load that agricultural water users discharge to the river are controlled by storing a part of return flows in some evaporation ponds. Available surface water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits are determined using a non-linear multi-objective optimization model. Total available permits are then fairly reallocated among agricultural water users, proportional to their arable lands. Water users can trade their water withdrawal and waste load discharge permits simultaneously, in a bilateral, step by step framework, which takes advantage of differences in their water use efficiencies and agricultural return flow rates. A trade that would take place at each time step results in either more benefit or less diverted return flow. The Nucleolus cooperative game is used to redistribute the benefits generated through trades in different time steps. The proposed methodology is applied to PayePol region in the Karkheh River catchment, southwest Iran. Predicting that 1922.7 Million Cubic Meters (MCM) of annual flow is available to agricultural lands at the beginning of the cultivation year, the real-time optimization model estimates the total annual benefit to reach 46.07 million US Dollars (USD), which requires 6.31 MCM of return flow to be diverted to the evaporation ponds. Fair reallocation of the permits, changes these values to 35.38 million USD and 13.69 MCM, respectively. Results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology in the real-time water and waste load allocation and simultaneous trading of permits. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future land-use related water demand in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Climate change impact on water resources - Example of an anthropized basin (Llobregat, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, P.-A.; Pouget, L.; Mc Ennis, S.; Guiu Carrio, R.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Escaler, I.

2012-04-01

The impact of climate change is one of the central topics of study by water agencies and companies. Indeed, the forecasted increase of atmospheric temperature may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation and affect the hydrological cycle: runoff, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… Moreover, global change combining climate change but also land use and water demand changes, may cause very important impacts on water availability and quality. Global change scenarios in Spain describe a general trend towards increased temperature and water demand, and reduced precipitation as a result of its geographical situation and socio-economic characteristics. The European project WATER CHANGE (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) aims to develop a modeling system to assess the Global Change impacts, and their associated uncertainties, on water availability for water supply and water use. Its objective is to help river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. This work presents the results obtained by applying the modelling system to the Llobregat river basin (Spain). This is an anthropized catchment of about 5000 km2, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydroelectric energy production. Based on future global change scenarios, the water resources system has been assessed in terms of water deficit and supply. A cost-benefit analysis has also been conducted in order to evaluate every realistic measure that could optimize and improve the system.

Base of Principal Aquifer for the Elkhorn-Loup Model Area, North-Central Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, V.L.; Peterson, Steven M.

2008-01-01

In Nebraska, the water managers in the Natural Resources Districts and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources are concerned with the effect of ground-water withdrawal on the availability of surface water and the long-term effects of ground-water withdrawal on ground- and surface-water resources. In north-central Nebraska, in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, ground water is used for irrigation, domestic supply, and public supply; surface water is used in this area for irrigation, recreation, and hydropower production. In recognition of these sometimes competing ground- and surface-water uses in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins, the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lewis and Clark Natural Resources District, the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District, the Lower Loup Natural Resources District, the Lower Niobrara Natural Resources District, the Lower Platte North Natural Resources District, the Middle Niobrara Natural Resources District, the Upper Elkhorn Natural Resources District, and the Upper Loup Natural Resources District agreed to cooperatively study water resources in the Elkhorn and Loup River Basins. The goals of the overall study were to construct and calibrate a regional ground-water flow model of the area and to use that flow model as a tool to assess current and future effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow and to help develop long-term water-resource management strategies for this area, hereafter referred to as the Elkhorn-Loup model area. The Elkhorn-Loup model area covers approximately 30,800 square miles, and extends from the Niobrara River in the north to the Platte River in the south. The western boundary of the Elkhorn-Loup model area coincides with the western boundary of the Middle Niobrara, Twin Platte, and Upper Loup Natural Resources Districts; the eastern boundary coincides with the approximate location of the western extent of glacial till in eastern Nebraska. The principal aquifer in most of the Elkhorn-Loup model area is the High Plains aquifer; the principal aquifer in the remaining part of the Elkhorn-Loup model area is an unnamed alluvial aquifer. The upper surface of the geologic units that directly underlie the aquifer is called the 'base of aquifer' in this report. The geologic unit that forms the base of aquifer in the Elkhorn-Loup model area varies by location. The Tertiary-age Brule Formation generally is the base of aquifer in the west; the Cretaceous-age Pierre Shale generally is the base of aquifer in the east. The purpose of this report is to update the altitude and configuration of the base of the principal aquifer in the Elkhorn-Loup model area and a 2-mile buffer area around the Elkhorn-Loup model area, using base-of-aquifer data from test holes, registered water wells, and oil and gas wells within the Elkhorn-Loup model area and a 20-mile buffer area around the Elkhorn-Loup model area that have become available since the publication of earlier maps of the base of aquifer for this area. The base-of-aquifer map is important for the Elkhorn-Loup ground-water flow model because it defines the model's lower boundary. The accuracy of the Elkhorn-Loup ground-water flow model and the accuracy of the model's predictions about the effects of ground-water irrigation on stream base flow are directly related to the accuracy of the model's lower boundary.

Modeling sediment transport from an off-road vehicle trail stream crossing using WEPP model

Treesearch

Renee' D. Ayala; Puneet Srivastava; Christian J. Brodbeck; Emily A. Carter; Timothy P. McDonald

2005-01-01

There is a limited information available pertaining to the adverse effects of Off-Road-Vehicle (ORV) use and trail impacts. As a result, this study was initiated in 2003 to (a) quantify water quality impacts of an ORV trail stream crossing through monitoring of total suspended solids, and (b) conduct WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) simulations to determine long...

Towards A Synthesis Of Land Dynamics And Hydrological Processes Across Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolik, I. N.; Tatarskii, V.; Shiklomanov, A. I.; Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K.; Laruelle, M.

2016-12-01

We present results from an ongoing project that aims to synthesize land dynamics, hydrological processes, and socio-economic changes across the five countries of Central Asia. We have developed a fully coupled model that takes into account the reconstructed land cover and land use dynamics to simulate dust emissions. A comparable model has been developed to model smoke emissions from wildfires. Both models incorporate land dynamics explicitly. We also present a characterization of land surface change based on a suite of MODIS products including vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, and albedo. These results are connected with ongoing land privatization reforms that different across the region. We also present a regional analysis of water resources, including the significant impact of using surface water for irrigation in an arid landscape. We applied the University of New Hampshire hydrological model to understand the consequences of changes in climate, water, and land use on regional hydrological processes and water use. Water security and its dynamic have been estimated through an analysis of multiple indices and variables characterizing the water availability and water use. The economic consequences of the water privatization processes will be presented.

In-Package Chemistry Abstraction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. Thomas

2004-11-09

This report was developed in accordance with the requirements in ''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Modeling and Analysis of the Waste Form and Waste Package'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171583]). The purpose of the in-package chemistry model is to predict the bulk chemistry inside of a breached waste package and to provide simplified expressions of that chemistry as function of time after breach to Total Systems Performance Assessment for the License Application (TSPA-LA). The scope of this report is to describe the development and validation of the in-package chemistry model. The in-package model is a combination of two models, amore » batch reactor model that uses the EQ3/6 geochemistry-modeling tool, and a surface complexation model that is applied to the results of the batch reactor model. The batch reactor model considers chemical interactions of water with the waste package materials and the waste form for commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF) waste packages and codisposed waste packages that contain both high-level waste glass (HLWG) and DOE spent fuel. The surface complexation model includes the impact of fluid-surface interactions (i.e., surface complexation) on the resulting fluid composition. The model examines two types of water influx: (1) the condensation of water vapor that diffuses into the waste package, and (2) seepage water that enters the waste package from the drift as a liquid. (1) Vapor Influx Case: The condensation of vapor onto the waste package internals is simulated as pure H2O and enters at a rate determined by the water vapor pressure for representative temperature and relative humidity conditions. (2) Water Influx Case: The water entering a waste package from the drift is simulated as typical groundwater and enters at a rate determined by the amount of seepage available to flow through openings in a breached waste package. TSPA-LA uses the vapor influx case for the nominal scenario for simulations where the waste package has been breached but the drip shield remains intact, so all of the seepage flow is diverted from the waste package. The chemistry from the vapor influx case is used to determine the stability of colloids and the solubility of radionuclides available for transport by diffusion, and to determine the degradation rates for the waste forms. TSPA-LA uses the water influx case for the seismic scenario, where the waste package has been breached and the drip shield has been damaged such that seepage flow is actually directed into the waste package. The chemistry from the water influx case that is a function of the flow rate is used to determine the stability of colloids and the solubility of radionuclides available for transport by diffusion and advection, and to determine the degradation rates for the CSNF and HLW glass. TSPA-LA does not use this model for the igneous scenario. Outputs from the in-package chemistry model implemented inside TSPA-LA include pH, ionic strength, and total carbonate concentration. These inputs to TSPA-LA will be linked to the following principle factors: dissolution rates of the CSNF and HLWG, dissolved concentrations of radionuclides, and colloid generation.« less

Modeling landscape evapotranspiration by integrating land surface phenology and a water balance algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senay, Gabriel B.

2008-01-01

The main objective of this study is to present an improved modeling technique called Vegetation ET (VegET) that integrates commonly used water balance algorithms with remotely sensed Land Surface Phenology (LSP) parameter to conduct operational vegetation water balance modeling of rainfed systems at the LSP’s spatial scale using readily available global data sets. Evaluation of the VegET model was conducted using Flux Tower data and two-year simulation for the conterminous US. The VegET model is capable of estimating actual evapotranspiration (ETa) of rainfed crops and other vegetation types at the spatial resolution of the LSP on a daily basis, replacing the need to estimate crop- and region-specific crop coefficients.

Modeling contribution of shallow groundwater to evapotranspiration and yield of maize in an arid area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiaoyu; Huo, Zailin; Qu, Zhongyi; Xu, Xu; Huang, Guanhua; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2017-02-01

Capillary rise from shallow groundwater can decrease the need for irrigation water. However, simple techniques do not exist to quantify the contribution of capillary flux to crop water use. In this study we develop the Agricultural Water Productivity Model for Shallow Groundwater (AWPM-SG) for calculating capillary fluxes from shallow groundwater using readily available data. The model combines an analytical solution of upward flux from groundwater with the EPIC crop growth model. AWPM-SG was calibrated and validated with 2-year lysimetric experiment with maize. Predicted soil moisture, groundwater depth and leaf area index agreed with the observations. To investigate the response of model, various scenarios were run in which the irrigation amount and groundwater depth were varied. Simulations shows that at groundwater depth of 1 m capillary upward supplied 41% of the evapotranspiration. This reduced to 6% at groundwater depth of 2 m. The yield per unit water consumed (water productivity) was nearly constant for 2.3 kg/m3. The yield per unit water applied (irrigation water productivity) increased with decreasing irrigation water because capillary rise made up in part for the lack of irrigation water. Consequently, using AWPM-SG in irrigation scheduling will be beneficial to save more water in areas with shallow groundwater.

Modeling contribution of shallow groundwater to evapotranspiration and yield of maize in an arid area

PubMed Central

Gao, Xiaoyu; Huo, Zailin; Qu, Zhongyi; Xu, Xu; Huang, Guanhua; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2017-01-01

Capillary rise from shallow groundwater can decrease the need for irrigation water. However, simple techniques do not exist to quantify the contribution of capillary flux to crop water use. In this study we develop the Agricultural Water Productivity Model for Shallow Groundwater (AWPM-SG) for calculating capillary fluxes from shallow groundwater using readily available data. The model combines an analytical solution of upward flux from groundwater with the EPIC crop growth model. AWPM-SG was calibrated and validated with 2-year lysimetric experiment with maize. Predicted soil moisture, groundwater depth and leaf area index agreed with the observations. To investigate the response of model, various scenarios were run in which the irrigation amount and groundwater depth were varied. Simulations shows that at groundwater depth of 1 m capillary upward supplied 41% of the evapotranspiration. This reduced to 6% at groundwater depth of 2 m. The yield per unit water consumed (water productivity) was nearly constant for 2.3 kg/m3. The yield per unit water applied (irrigation water productivity) increased with decreasing irrigation water because capillary rise made up in part for the lack of irrigation water. Consequently, using AWPM-SG in irrigation scheduling will be beneficial to save more water in areas with shallow groundwater. PMID:28220874

Modeling contribution of shallow groundwater to evapotranspiration and yield of maize in an arid area.

PubMed

Gao, Xiaoyu; Huo, Zailin; Qu, Zhongyi; Xu, Xu; Huang, Guanhua; Steenhuis, Tammo S

2017-02-21

Capillary rise from shallow groundwater can decrease the need for irrigation water. However, simple techniques do not exist to quantify the contribution of capillary flux to crop water use. In this study we develop the Agricultural Water Productivity Model for Shallow Groundwater (AWPM-SG) for calculating capillary fluxes from shallow groundwater using readily available data. The model combines an analytical solution of upward flux from groundwater with the EPIC crop growth model. AWPM-SG was calibrated and validated with 2-year lysimetric experiment with maize. Predicted soil moisture, groundwater depth and leaf area index agreed with the observations. To investigate the response of model, various scenarios were run in which the irrigation amount and groundwater depth were varied. Simulations shows that at groundwater depth of 1 m capillary upward supplied 41% of the evapotranspiration. This reduced to 6% at groundwater depth of 2 m. The yield per unit water consumed (water productivity) was nearly constant for 2.3 kg/m 3 . The yield per unit water applied (irrigation water productivity) increased with decreasing irrigation water because capillary rise made up in part for the lack of irrigation water. Consequently, using AWPM-SG in irrigation scheduling will be beneficial to save more water in areas with shallow groundwater.

Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

2017-04-01

Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the minimal point of soil moisture that plant requires not to wilt); the field capacity (i.e. the maximum amount of water content that a soil can held); the available water content (AWC), obtained as the difference between field capacity and wilting point. Furthermore, the model considers 15 different ID of land use, with a resolution of 250 m. The model was then tested by a direct comparison with experimental data. First, the modelled water content from the surface down to 65 cm of soil depth was compared to the measured one with a Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) in Grugliasco (TO), a non-irrigated flat permanent meadow, for years 2006-2008. Here, the soil is sandy with a slope of about 1%. Then, considering three corn farms located in the Cuneo district, the goodness of modelled irrigations was verified. The soil texture of the three farms, analysed according to the USDA criteria, is loam or silty-loam. In particular, we compared the number of irrigations done by the farmers with the ones given by the model, which irrigates as soon as the plant reaches an imposed level of water stress. We also compared the irrigation turn given by the model with the farmers' one. Then we compared the modelled water content with the one measured before and after the irrigation. We observed that the modelled irrigation occurred when the measured water content was close to the modelled wilting point. In both test cases, the model seems to reflect quite well the real behaviour of water content.

Systems Modeling to Improve River, Riparian, and Wetland Habitat Quality and Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alafifi, A.

2016-12-01

The suitability of watershed habitat to support the livelihood of its biota primarily depends on managing flow. Ecological restoration requires finding opportunities to reallocate available water in a watershed to increase ecological benefits and maintain other beneficial uses. We present the Watershed Area of Suitable Habitat (WASH) systems model that recommends reservoir releases, streamflows, and water allocations throughout a watershed to maximize the ecosystem habitat quality. WASH embeds and aggregates area-weighted metrics for aquatic, floodplain, and wetland habitat components as an ecosystem objective to maximize, while maintaining water deliveries for domestic and agricultural uses, mass balance, and available budget for restoration actions. The metrics add spatial and temporal functionality and area coverage to traditional habitat quality indexes and can accommodate multiple species of concern. We apply the WASH model to the Utah portion of the Bear River watershed which includes 8 demand sites, 5 reservoirs and 37 nodes between the Utah-Idaho state line and the Great Salt Lake. We recommend water allocations to improve current conservation efforts and show tradeoffs between human and ecosystem uses of water. WASH results are displayed on an open-source web mapping application that allows stakeholders to access, visualize, and interact with the model data and results and compare current and model-recommended operations. Results show that the Bear River is largely developed and appropriated for human water uses. However, increasing reservoirs winter and early spring releases and minimizing late spring spill volumes can significantly improve habitat quality without harming agricultural or urban water users. The spatial and temporal reallocation of spring spills to environmental uses creates additional 70 thousand acres of suitable habitat in the watershed without harming human users. WASH also quantifies the potential environmental gains and losses from conserving water and from the impact of climate change on head flows and thus helps planning for the future of our water resources and ecosystem.

Linking a modified EPIC-based growth model (UPGM) with a component-based watershed model (AGES-W)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural models and decision support systems (DSS) for assessing water use and management are increasingly being applied to diverse geographic regions at different scales. This requires models that can simulate different crops, however, very few plant growth models are available that “easily” ...

Risk assessment for pesticide contamination of groundwater with sparse available data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardowicks, K.; Heredia, O.; Billib, M.; Fernández Cirelli, A.; Boochs, P.

2009-04-01

The contamination of the water resources by agrochemicals is recognized in industrial countries as a very important environmental problem, nevertheless in most of developing and threshold countries the risks for health and environmental problems are not considered. In these countries agrochemicals, which are forbidden since several years in Europe (e.g. atrazine), are still in use. In some threshold countries monitoring systems are already installed for nutrients (N, P) and also a few for heavy metals, but so far the contamination by pesticides is hardly ever controlled, thus there is no data available about pesticide concentrations in soil and water. The aim of this research is to develop a methodology to show farmers and other water users (water agencies, drinking water supply companies) in basins of developing or threshold countries with sparse available data the risk of contamination of the groundwater resources by pesticides. A few data like pesticide application, precipitation, irrigation, potential evaporation and soil types are available in some regions. If these data is reliable it can be used together with some justified estimated parameters to perform simulations of the fate of pesticides to the groundwater. Therefore in two study cases in Argentina and Chile pesticide models (e.g. PESTAN, IPTM-CS) were used to evaluate the risk of contamination of the groundwater. The results were compared with contamination indicators, like one developed by O. Heredia, for checking their plausibility. Afterwards the results of the models were used as input data for simulations at the catchment scale, for instance for a groundwater simulation model (VISUAL MODFLOW). The results show a great risk for the contamination of the groundwater resources in the selected study areas, especially by atrazine. On this account the findings will be used by local researchers to improve the knowledge and the awareness of farmers and other stakeholders about the contamination of the water resources by pesticides.

A High-Resolution Spatially Explicit Monte-Carlo Simulation Approach to Commercial and Residential Electricity and Water Demand Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morton, April M; McManamay, Ryan A; Nagle, Nicholas N

Abstract As urban areas continue to grow and evolve in a world of increasing environmental awareness, the need for high resolution spatially explicit estimates for energy and water demand has become increasingly important. Though current modeling efforts mark significant progress in the effort to better understand the spatial distribution of energy and water consumption, many are provided at a course spatial resolution or rely on techniques which depend on detailed region-specific data sources that are not publicly available for many parts of the U.S. Furthermore, many existing methods do not account for errors in input data sources and may thereforemore » not accurately reflect inherent uncertainties in model outputs. We propose an alternative and more flexible Monte-Carlo simulation approach to high-resolution residential and commercial electricity and water consumption modeling that relies primarily on publicly available data sources. The method s flexible data requirement and statistical framework ensure that the model is both applicable to a wide range of regions and reflective of uncertainties in model results. Key words: Energy Modeling, Water Modeling, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Uncertainty Quantification Acknowledgment This manuscript has been authored by employees of UT-Battelle, LLC, under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Accordingly, the United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.« less

Numerical study of water mitigation effects on blast wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, M.; Hung, K. C.; Chong, O. Y.

2005-11-01

The mitigating effect of a water wall on the generation and propagation of blast waves of a nearby explosive has been investigated using a numerical approach. A multimaterial Eulerian finite element technique is used to study the influence of the design parameters, such as the water-to-explosive weight ratio, the water wall thickness, the air-gap and the cover area ratio of water on the effectiveness of the water mitigation concept. In the computational model, the detonation gases are modelled with the standard Jones Wilkins Lee (JWL) equation of state. Water, on the other hand, is treated as a compressible fluid with the Mie Gruneisen equation of state model. The validity of the computational model is checked against a limited amount of available experimental data, and the influence of mesh sizes on the convergence of results is also discussed. From the results of the extensive numerical experiments, it is deduced that firstly, the presence of an air-gap reduces the effectiveness of the water mitigator. Secondly, the higher the water-to-explosive weight ratio, the more significant is the reduction in peak pressure of the explosion. Typically, water-to-explosive weight ratios in the range of 1 3 are found to be most practical.

Modelling global water stress of the recent past: on the relative importance of trends in water demand and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2011-12-01

During the past decades, human water use has more than doubled, yet available freshwater resources are finite. As a result, water scarcity has been prevalent in various regions of the world. Here, we present the first global assessment of past development of water stress considering not only climate variability but also growing water demand, desalinated water use and non-renewable groundwater abstraction over the period 1960-2001 at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on past extents of irrigated areas and livestock densities. We approximate past economic development based on GDP, energy and household consumption and electricity production, which are subsequently used together with population numbers to estimate industrial and domestic water demand. Climate variability is expressed by simulated blue water availability defined by freshwater in rivers, lakes, wetlands and reservoirs by means of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We thus define blue water stress by comparing blue water availability with corresponding net total blue water demand by means of the commonly used, Water Scarcity Index. The results show a drastic increase in the global population living under water-stressed conditions (i.e. moderate to high water stress) due to growing water demand, primarily for irrigation, which has more than doubled from 1708/818 to 3708/1832 km3 yr-1 (gross/net) over the period 1960-2000. We estimate that 800 million people or 27% of the global population were living under water-stressed conditions for 1960. This number is eventually increased to 2.6 billion or 43% for 2000. Our results indicate that increased water demand is a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions such as India and North China, enhancing the intensity of water stress up to 200%, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. However, our results also suggest that in several emerging and developing economies (e.g. India, Turkey, Romania and Cuba) some of past extreme events were anthropogenically driven due to increased water demand rather than being climate-induced.